TotalEnergies SE (TTE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the TotalEnergies third-quarter 2024 results conference call.

女士們先生們，歡迎參加 TotalEnergies 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

I now hand over to Patrick Pouyanne, Chairman and CEO, Jean-Pierre Sbraire, CFO, who will lead you through this call. Sir, please go ahead.

我現在將主席兼執行長 Patrick Pouyanne 和財務長 Jean-Pierre Sbraire 交給他們，他們將帶領大家完成這次電話會議。先生，請繼續。

Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Patrick Pouyanne here, together with Jean-Pierre. Nice to be with you again after seeing you many view in person at our Investor Day in New York area this month. I just spent the last three weeks in road shows, I would like just to share with you that we got the constructive feedback from the investors on balanced strategy.

早安.大家下午好。帕特里克·普亞納 (Patrick Pouyanne) 和讓-皮埃爾 (Jean-Pierre) 在這裡。很高興在本月紐約地區的投資者日上親眼目睹了你們的許多觀點後再次與你們在一起。我剛剛度過了過去三週的路演，我想與大家分享的是，我們從投資者那裡得到了關於平衡策略的建設性回饋。

And the level of understanding of our growth profile on both pillars, oil and gas with the quality and depth of our upstream portfolio on one side, but also on the other side, the integrated power is now, I would say, better understood on both sides of the Atlantic. As discussed at the Investor Day, the clarity, consistency of our strategy must remain our priority. Discipline on costs, keeping a low breakeven portfolio. and a strong balance sheet supporting attractive shareholder returns or fundamental principles, which allows the company to be resilient for the cycles especially when we are entering into an increasingly volatile and certain environments like what we have seen during this third quarter. I will not be longer, and I will hand over to Jean-Pierre to discuss the details of the three-quarter financials which I think are proving also the resiliency of our integrated model in a challenging environment for both oil and refining margins.

一方面，我們對石油和天然氣這兩個支柱的成長概況的了解程度，一方面是我們上游投資組合的品質和深度，另一方面，我想說，現在，綜合實力在兩個方面都得到了更好的理解大西洋兩岸。正如投資者日所討論的那樣，我們策略的清晰度和一致性必須仍然是我們的首要任務。嚴格控製成本，維持低損益平衡的投資組合。強大的資產負債表支持有吸引力的股東回報或基本原則，這使公司能夠在周期中保持彈性，特別是當我們進入一個日益不穩定的特定環境時，就像我們在第三季度所看到的那樣。我的時間不會太長，我將讓讓-皮埃爾討論第三季度財務數據的細節，我認為這也證明了我們的綜合模型在石油和煉油利潤充滿挑戰的環境中的彈性。

And then we'll be happy to answer your questions during the Q&A.

然後我們很樂意在問答環節回答您的問題。

Thank you, Patrick, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. This quarter, we faced a more challenging environment with refining margins (inaudible) with the European refining margin market, down by 66% quarter to quarter, lower than our breakeven at $25 per ton. Regarding the upstream environment, brand decreased by 5% quarter to quarter to average $80 per barrel, while the company average LNG price decreased by 6%. In this context, the company reported adjusted net income of $4.1 billion in the quarter and $13.9 billion over the first nine months of the year. Profitability remained robust.

謝謝派崔克，大家早安，下午好。本季度，我們面臨更具挑戰性的環境，煉油利潤（聽不清楚），歐洲煉油利潤市場季度環比下降 66%，低於我們每噸 25 美元的盈虧平衡點。上游環境方面，品牌較上季下降5%至每桶均價80美元，而公司液化天然氣平均價格下降6%。在此背景下，該公司報告本季調整後淨利潤為 41 億美元，今年前 9 個月調整後淨利潤為 139 億美元。獲利能力依然強勁。

We returned on average capital employed for the 12 months ending end of September at 14.6%. Moving now to the lines segment, starting with the first pillar of our balanced strategy, the hydrocarbons. First, regarding oil and gas production. During the third quarter, production was 2.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day within the guidance range of [2.45 million] barrels of oil equivalent [per barrel]. We continue to see good performance from project ramp-ups, mainly [Merutu] in Brazil, which partially offset unplanned shutdowns (inaudible) and security-related disruption in Libya.

截至 9 月底的 12 個月，我們的平均已動用資本報酬率為 14.6%。現在轉向生產線部分，從我們平衡策略的第一個支柱開始——碳氫化合物。首先，關於石油和天然氣生產。第三季度，日產量為 241 萬桶油當量，在 [245 萬] 桶油當量[每桶]的指導範圍內。我們繼續看到專案成長的良好表現，主要是巴西的[Merutu]，這部分抵消了利比亞的計劃外關閉（聽不清楚）和安全相關的中斷。

In addition, during the third quarter, we achieved first oil at the high-margin encore project in the Gulf of Mexico and the US and first gas as a [semi-field] offshore in Argentina. We expect production for the fourth quarter of '24 to be between [2.4 million, 2.45 million] barrels of oil equivalent per day, benefiting from the end of security rate disruption in via and yesterday's start-up of the [Meru free] project in Brazil that compensates for several planned shutdown during the fourth quarter '24. Exploration and production performance continues to be strong. We reported adjusted net operating income of $2.5 billion, stable cash flow of $4.3 billion and an attractive return on capital employed of 15.6%.

此外，第三季度，我們在墨西哥灣和美國的高利潤安可計畫中獲得了第一批石油，並在阿根廷海上[半油田]獲得了第一批天然氣。我們預計 24 年第四季的產量將在每天 [240 萬至 245 萬] 桶石油當量之間，受益於 via 安全費率中斷的結束以及昨天在 [Meru free] 項目的啟動巴西補償了24 年第第四季的幾次計劃停工。勘探和生產業績持續強勁。我們報告調整後的淨營業收入為 25 億美元，穩定的現金流為 43 億美元，所用資本回報率為 15.6%。

On the project side, earlier this month, the company and its partners [essentially Grand margo] projects, the last one, 220,000 barrels per day FPSO located offshore (inaudible) with estimated recoverable oil reserves of more than 750 million barrels. These low-cost, low-emission developments were sanctioned one year only after the end of appraisal and is designed to accommodate future timing opportunities to extend the production [plateau]. [Grand Margo] is a company, six major oil and gas FID of '24, all of which derisk our medium-term production growth objective of 3% per year through 2030 which ultimately translates into growing shareholder distributions. Exploration and Production [AC 932] OpEx per barrel equivalents remain best in class at $4.9 per barrel for the first nine months '24 compared to our objective to be below $5 per rig.

在項目方面，本月早些時候，該公司及其合作夥伴[主要是Grand margo] 項目，即最後一個項目，位於海上（聽不清楚）的每天220,000 桶FPSO，估計可採石油儲量超過7.5 億桶。這些低成本、低排放的開發項目僅在評估結束一年後才獲得批准，旨在適應未來延長生產[穩定期]的時機。 [Grand Margo] 是一家公司，是 24 年六大石油和天然氣 FID 的公司，所有這些都損害了我們到 2030 年每年 3% 的中期產量增長目標，而這最終會轉化為不斷增長的股東分配。勘探和生產 [AC 932] 2024 年前 9 個月，每桶營運支出仍處於同類最佳水平，為每桶 4.9 美元，而我們的目標是每台鑽機低於 5 美元。

Moving to integrated energy. First, on the results. Hydrocarbon production for LNG decreased 7% quarter to quarter, primarily linked to unplanned maintenance at synergy. On the other hand, LNG sales increased by 8% quarter to quarter in the context of seasonal inventory replenishments. Integrated LNG adjusted net operating income was $1.1 billion in the third quarter, result primarily reflects lower LNG production. And in addition, gas trading did not fully benefit from markets characterized by low volatility.

轉向綜合能源。首先，關於結果。液化天然氣的碳氫化合物產量較上季下降 7%，主要與協同計畫外的維護有關。另一方面，在季節性庫存補充的背景下，液化天然氣銷售量較上季成長8%。第三季綜合液化天然氣調整後淨營業收入為 11 億美元，主要反映液化天然氣產量下降。此外，天然氣交易並未充分受益於低波動性市場。

Cash flow was $0.9 billion due to the timing effects in dividend payments from some equity affiliates of around $200 million. Looking forward, given the evolution of oil and gas prices in the recent months and the lag effect on price formulas. TotalEnergies anticipates that its average LNG selling price should be long in the fourth quarter '24, slightly higher than the $9.9 per (inaudible) in the third quarter. During the third quarter, TotalEnergies' strengthened future cash flows by signing several medium-term sales contracts in Asia, bringing total LNG contracts signed year to year to 4 million ton. In addition, we have integration along the gas value chain by acquiring low-cost upstream by gas supply in the Eagle Ford in Texas.

由於一些股權附屬公司支付約 2 億美元股息的時間效應，現金流為 9 億美元。展望未來，考慮到近幾個月石油和天然氣價格的演變以及價格公式的滯後效應。 TotalEnergies 預計 2024 年第四季的平均液化天然氣銷售價格應該會很高，略高於第三季的 9.9 美元（聽不清楚）。第三季度，TotalEnergies透過在亞洲簽署多份中期銷售合約增強了未來現金流，使全年簽署的液化天然氣合約總量達到400萬噸。此外，我們也透過收購德州伊格爾福特的低成本上游天然氣供應，實現了天然氣價值鏈的整合。

Moving now to integrated power. And the reason the company continues to deliver on its targets. For the first quarter, adjusted net operating income remains close to $0.5 billion and cash flow above $0.6 billion. Year-to-date, adjusted net operating income totaled $1.6 billion, up 21% year on year and cash flow totaled $1.95 billion, up 35% and in line with annual guidance of more than $2.5 billion, contributing to the resiliency of the company. In addition, we have extended our traffic of returns.

現在轉向整合電源。這也是公司繼續實現目標的原因。第一季調整後淨營業收入仍接近 5 億美元，現金流超過 6 億美元。年初至今，調整後淨營業收入總計 16 億美元，年增 21%，現金流總計 19.5 億美元，成長 35%，符合超過 25 億美元的年度指引，增強了公司的彈性。此外，我們也擴大了退貨流量。

We returned on average capital employed for the 12 months ending end of September, close to 10%. TotalEnergies achieved several milestones during the third quarter. First one being the start-up of two giant solar farms in the US with battery storage in the fast-growing (inaudible) market in Texas, where we already have all the necessary building blocks that define our differentiated integrated model. We closed on the strategic facility acquisition located in the deregulated UK markets that complements our existing intermittent renewable assets. And lastly, we strengthened our partnership in both (inaudible) and in Germany and in the Netherlands with RWE in offshore wind.

截至 9 月底的 12 個月，我們的平均已動用資本報酬率接近 10%。 TotalEnergies 在第三季度實現了多個里程碑。第一個是在美國德克薩斯州快速成長（聽不清楚）市場上啟動兩個具有電池儲存的巨型太陽能發電廠，在那裡我們已經擁有定義我們差異化整合模型的所有必要建造模組。我們完成了位於解除管制的英國市場的戰略設施收購，這補充了我們現有的間歇性可再生資產。最後，我們加強了在（聽不清楚）以及德國和荷蘭與萊茵集團在離岸風電領域的合作關係。

In downstream, third-quarter adjusted net operating income totaled $0.6 billion and cash flow totaled $1.2 billion, with marketing and trading activities partially compensating for the very sharp decrease in global refining margins in Europe, down 66% sequentially and rest of the world. In refining and chemicals, the company's European refining markets fell to $15 per ton in Q3 due to normalization of trade flows after the Russian ban and ample supply quality to recent capacity increases. Currently, it is close to $25 per ton.

在下游，第三季調整後的淨營業收入總計6 億美元，現金流總計12 億美元，行銷和貿易活動部分補償了歐洲和世界其他地區全球煉油利潤急劇下降的情況，該利潤比上一季度下降了66%。在煉油和化學品方面，由於俄羅斯禁令後貿易流動正常化以及近期產能增加帶來的充足供應質量，該公司的歐洲煉油市場第三季跌至每噸15美元。目前，價格接近每噸25美元。

This indicator of $15 per ton is lower than our breakeven at $25 per ton and we suffered as well with some incidents in some of our refineries. For the [fourth quarter four], the company anticipates refining utilization rates will remain above 85%. We have a turnaround plan at (inaudible) refinery in October. Marketing and services results remain strong for the third quarter with adjusted net operating income was $0.2 billion and cash flow of $0.6 billion. At the company level and to wrap up, in the third quarter, we reported $1.1 billion negative adjustment to net income related to impairments.

每噸 15 美元的這項指標低於每噸 25 美元的損益平衡點，而且我們的一些煉油廠也發生了一些事故。對於[第四季]，該公司預計煉油利用率將維持在85%以上。我們在 10 月對（聽不清楚）煉油廠制定了周轉計畫。第三季行銷和服務業績依然強勁，調整後淨營業收入為 2 億美元，現金流為 6 億美元。最後，在公司層面，我們在第三季報告了與減損相關的淨利潤負調整 11 億美元。

These impairments being linked to two events: the first one, the chapter element bankruptcy filing of [SunPower] in the US and the exit on Block 11B, 12B and [5, 6, 7] in South Africa. After the build reported in the first quarter, the first working capital release was reported during the second quarter and a new release of $0.4 billion was reported this quarter. And we anticipate that working capital will continue to reverse in the first quarter, a new release of $2 billion is anticipated for the first quarter of '24. As I was saying in the introduction, profitability remained robust with return on average capital employed at 14.6%.

這些減損與兩個事件有關：第一個是美國 [SunPower] 的章節要素破產申請以及南非 11B、12B 和 [5,6,7] 區塊的退出。繼第一季報告了建設情況後，第二季報告了首次營運資金釋放，本季報告了新釋放的 4 億美元。我們預計第一季營運資金將持續逆轉，預計 2024 年第一季將新增 20 億美元。正如我在引言中所說，獲利能力依然強勁，平均資本回報率為 14.6%。

Capital is keeping is strong. We confirmed '24 net investment guidance of $16 billion to $18 billion. Lastly, we continue our track record of strong shareholder distribution buybacks are consistent with the company set to execute yet another $2 billion in the first quarter, in line with the objective of $8 billion for the full year '24. Dividend growth is healthy with the third interim dividend, up nearly 7% compared to '23 and up 20% compared to pre-COVID.

資本保持力強。我們確認 24 年淨投資指引為 160 億至 180 億美元。最後，我們繼續保持強勁的股東分配回購記錄，這與公司計劃在第一季再執行 20 億美元的計劃一致，符合 24 年全年 80 億美元的目標。第三次中期股息的股息成長健康，與 23 年相比成長近 7%，與新冠疫情爆發前相比成長 20%。

We stop here and with that, Patrick and I are available to answer your questions.

我們就到此為止，派崔克和我可以回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Lydia Rainforth，巴克萊銀行。

Two questions, if I could. The first one on cash flow. If I look at the cash flow in the quarter, it's just under $7 billion ex working capital. And at no price of what was effectively $80, that's not actually enough to cover CapEx, dividends and buybacks. So is that just a specific quarterly feature?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是現金流。如果我看一下本季的現金流，就會發現扣除營運資金後的現金流略低於 70 億美元。而且，無論實際價格為 80 美元，這實際上都不足以支付資本支出、股息和回購。那麼這只是一個特定的季度功能嗎？

Or is cash flow actually starting to lag behind your expectations? And then secondly, a very different topic, but we have started to see some transactions in the vacuum water in Argentina. Can you talk through what your plans are for Argentina and what you think the opportunity there might be?

或者現金流實際上開始落後於您的預期嗎？其次，這是一個非常不同的話題，但我們已經開始看到阿根廷真空水的一些交易。您能談談您對阿根廷的計劃以及您認為可能存在的機會嗎？

On the cash flow, I think Jean-Pierre mentioned in his speech that there was -- we had.

關於現金流，我認為讓-皮埃爾在他的演講中提到了——我們有。

The lag effect.

滯後效應。

A lag effect on some SMEs between the results and the cash dividends mainly LNG SME. So it's why it's affecting the integrated LNG cash flow in Nigeria, in Qatar, but I think this is not something which should be reversed. In fact, there is no fundamental reason to have that such a difference. It's just quarterly effect. So that I would say, no specific point behind this one, I would say.

部分中小企業績效與現金股利有落後效應，主要是液化天然氣中小企業。這就是為什麼它影響了尼日利亞和卡達的綜合液化天然氣現金流，但我認為這不應該逆轉。事實上，沒有根本原因造成這種差異。這只是季度效應。所以我想說，這背後沒有具體的觀點，我想說。

On the second question, yes, I learned that. And we have quite a lot, as you know, of accurate in Argentina. We know that we manage that quite cautiously we just recirculated CapEx cash flow, we mainly produce gas. We have some accurage exactly like Exxon in the oil window, which until now we did not develop. In fact, it's a question of CapEx.

關於第二個問題，是的，我了解到了。如您所知，我們在阿根廷有很多準確的資訊。我們知道，我們管理得相當謹慎，我們只是再循環資本支出現金流，我們主要生產天然氣。我們有一些精確度，就像埃克森美孚在石油窗口一樣，但到目前為止我們還沒有開發出來。事實上，這是一個資本支出的問題。

There is a question mark, by the way, in our company to know if we move from allocating CapEx more on the oil window and less on the gas, but that would require some investment. So we are evaluating proportions. Having said that, we do not intend as long as, I would say, Argentina is a specific country where you cannot see (inaudible) dividend freely. So as long as it remains the same, as I explained to the Argentina President when I met him last month, we want our money back. So if we will not invest more as long as we don't see a freedom to dividend. So again, we have a large portfolio. We are evaluating options in that country, but (inaudible) can tell you. And we will, of course, analyze the different options we have in that view.

順便說一句，我們公司內部有一個問號，不知道我們是否會改變在石油窗口上分配更多資本支出而在天然氣上分配更少的資本支出，但這需要一些投資。所以我們正在評估比例。話雖如此，我想說，只要阿根廷是一個你無法自由看到（聽不清楚）紅利的特定國家，我們就不打算這樣做。因此，只要情況保持不變，正如我上個月會見阿根廷總統時向他解釋的那樣，我們就希望拿回我們的錢。因此，只要我們看不到股利自由，我們就不會增加投資。再說一次，我們有一個很大的投資組合。我們正在評估該國家/地區的選擇，但（聽不清楚）可以告訴您。當然，我們將分析我們在這種觀點下的不同選擇。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

I had two quick questions. The first one, I was wondering if you could update us with progress with your Uganda project, one of the giant start-ups we've got in the relatively near term. And also in Mozambique, we've had the elections. Does this effectively bring you one step forward to restarting that project. And then secondly, I was wondering with [COP 29] coming up in Baku next month, if you had any expectation of what you think could be some of the low-hanging fruit or some of the wins in terms of changes to the global policy there.

我有兩個簡單的問題。第一個，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹烏幹達專案的最新進展，該專案是我們近期擁有的大型新創公司之一。在莫三比克，我們也舉行了選舉。這是否有效地使您在重新啟動該專案方面向前邁出了一步？其次，我想知道下個月在巴庫舉行的[COP 29]，您是否對您認為可能實現的一些容易實現的成果或全球政策變化方面的一些勝利有任何期望那裡。

Okay. Thank you, Michele. Uganda is progressing as per plan. We intend to start the production by mid-'26. the drilling is positive, I would say. I mean, the news from the reservoir point of view are globally, I mean, positive. In fact,. So I would say it's progressing and the pipeline the pipeline itself is being started to be built and late. So I would say we are on the way to deliver these important projects, as we said, not only in terms of production but also in terms of cash flow for the company. It's a sizable investment.

好的。謝謝你，米歇爾。烏幹達正在按計劃取得進展。我們打算在 26 年中期開始生產。我想說，鑽探是積極的。我的意思是，從水庫的角度來看，這個消息在全球範圍內都是正面的。實際上，。所以我想說它正在取得進展，管道本身正在開始建造，但已經太晚了。所以我想說，正如我們所說，我們正在交付這些重要項目，不僅在生產方面，而且在公司的現金流方面。這是一筆相當大的投資。

So that's where we are on Uganda. On Mozambique, I would say we need to -- I mean, again, as you know, there are different aspects in Mozambique One of them was a security -- on the security side, I would say it has progressed. Of course, effect that there will be a stable political power in Mozambique is important for us. So we are following the different news from there, and we intend to visit the country when it will be ready. But I think it's, of course, positive.

這就是我們在烏幹達的情況。關於莫三比克，我想說我們需要——我的意思是，正如你所知，莫三比克有不同的方面，其中之一是安全——在安全方面，我想說它已經取得了進展。當然，莫三比克政局穩定對我們來說很重要。因此，我們正在關注那裡的不同消息，我們打算在該國準備好時訪問該國。但我認為這當然是正面的。

There is the more you stability in the country will come, the better it is for all of us. Having said that, we are more focused on our (inaudible). I don't -- [Cabo Delgado], good news from the election process, but it was quiet. There was no events during that period. So I would say, from this perspective, for me, it's positive.

國家越穩定，對我們所有人來說就越好。話雖如此，我們更關注我們的（聽不清楚）。我不——[德爾加杜角]，選舉過程中傳來好消息，但很安靜。期間沒有發生任何事件。所以我想說，從這個角度來看，對我來說，這是正面的。

But the assessment there on the security side, fundamentally that we could restart those projects. With the contractors we worked on, everybody is there. But as I told you, I think last time, the last point on which we are working, and I hope we'll have good news is that we are working with the difference on the financing of the project. There was a big project financing package, which was signed, in fact, executed in 2020, 2021. We began by the way, to execute it in '21 before the fourth measure -- all the credit export agencies have done the due diligence on the projects.

但從安全性的評估來看，從根本上說我們可以重新啟動這些專案。與我們合作的承包商，每個人都在那裡。但正如我告訴你的那樣，我認為上次我們正在努力的最後一點，我希望我們會得到好消息，那就是我們正在解決專案融資方面的差異。有一個大型的專案融資方案，實際上是在2020年、2021年簽署的。盡職調查。

And technically, it's okay. No, we are waiting for the different green lights, in particular, from I would say, some G7 credit urgencies, and we are working for them. So from my perspective, I would say we are on the right track. But of course, this is fundamental to have all the financing in place before we restart the project. So that's the last point on which we work.

從技術上來說，這是沒問題的。不，我們正在等待不同的綠燈，特別是我想說的一些七國集團信貸緊急情況，我們正在為它們努力。所以從我的角度來看，我想說我們走在正確的軌道上。當然，這是在我們重新啟動專案之前確保所有融資到位的基礎。這是我們工作的最後一點。

Honestly, I don't see a lot -- I mean, I will myself be there because, as you know, I am one of the [free] champions of the oil and gas decarbonization charter together with certain (inaudible). So we have an event there. I would say, by the way, it's an interesting collective move for the industry. We have engaged with 52 companies, a lot of national oil companies, and it's an interesting I would say, moving forward to put in place with these national companies, the same type of reporting framework is the one we have and so we to progress to share also a lot of experience and sort of experience in terms of basing methane emissions, which is one of the objectives. So I think that is positive.

老實說，我看不到太多——我的意思是，我自己會在那裡，因為如你所知，我是石油和天然氣脫碳憲章的[免費]擁護者之一，以及某些（聽不清）。所以我們在那裡舉辦了一個活動。順便說一句，我想說，這對整個行業來說是一個有趣的集體舉措。我們已經與 52 家公司、許多國家石油公司進行了合作，我想說的是，很有趣的是，我們將繼續與這些國家公司建立相同類型的報告框架，因此我們將繼續推進仍在甲烷排放基礎上分享大量經驗和經驗，這是目標之一。所以我認為這是積極的。

On the COP 29, I'm not partly -- I mean, we are not, I would say, part of the discussions. According to the news I got, we don't expect much new things. One of the key chapter on which we'd like to see progress on the caution of the carbon credit if more [Article 6] can we -- because it's important in order to invest in this type of credit to have a sort of strong framework, which will be validated by the UN and the International Committee would be good. I think in order to make these investments in the stronger investments in (inaudible). So that's, I would say, the main expectations on our side.

在 COP 29 上，我沒有部分參與——我的意思是，我想說，我們沒有參與討論。根據我得到的消息，我們預計不會有太多新的事情。我們希望看到在碳信用謹慎方面取得進展的關鍵章節之一（如果可以的話）[第 6 條]——因為為了投資此類信用，擁有一種強有力的框架非常重要，這將得到聯合國和國際委員會的驗證，這將是一件好事。我認為為了使這些投資成為更強的投資（聽不清楚）。我想說，這就是我們主要的期望。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬特‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Two, if I could, please. First, just coming back to your comments on cash flow generation in the quarter. I mean, obviously, CFFO can fluctuate and there can be phasing effects quarter-on-quarter. I just wonder if you look at year-to-date sort of the nine-month performance, can you talk about an underlying cash generation over the course of 2024 and perhaps how it compares to your beginning of year expectations on an underlying basis? And then secondly, the capital frame was made very, very clear in at the beginning of October with the Investor Day, given though short-term macro volatility to the downside as well as the upside. Could you talk about where the threshold sits in terms of when TotalEnergies would we look to activate some or all of the $2 billion CapEx that you talked about?

兩個，如果可以的話，請。首先，回到您對本季現金流產生的評論。我的意思是，顯然，CFFO 可能會波動，並且可能會出現季度環比的階段性影響。我只是想知道，如果您看看今年迄今為止的 9 個月業績，您能否談談 2024 年的基本現金生成情況，以及它與您年初的基本預期相比如何？其次，考慮到短期宏觀波動的下行和上行，資本框架在 10 月初的投資者日變得非常非常清晰。您能否談談 TotalEnergies 何時啟動您提到的 20 億美元資本支出的部分或全部的門檻在哪裡？

Okay. First, on the cash generation, I would say on the cash flow after Nine months, we are at $23 billion, next to ['23]. So it means we are today at the third last fourth quarter was around $7 billion. So it's between -- around $30 billion, we could land at the end of the year which is, in fact, we are more in line. We were at [31, 32].

好的。首先，關於現金生成，我想說的是九個月後的現金流，我們達到 230 億美元，僅次於 ['23]。因此，這意味著我們今天的第四季倒數第三季的營收約為 70 億美元。因此，大約 300 億美元，我們可能會在今年年底落地，事實上，我們更符合這項要求。我們在 [31, 32]。

We have higher expectations on one side with the refining margins. So for me, we are in the ballpark. And I would say, from this global perspective, it does not change all the guidance we gave you on the last CMD in New York, including the share I would say I'm comforted -- we are comfortable with -- we are on the track that we were anticipating. So I see no impact from this perspective. So let's consider we are there at around $30 billion.

一方面，我們對煉油利潤抱持更高的期望。所以對我來說，我們處於大致水平。我想說，從全球角度來看，這不會改變我們在紐約上一次 CMD 上給你們的所有指導，包括我想說的讓我感到安慰的部分——我們對此感到滿意——我們正在我們所期待的軌道。所以從這個角度來看我認為沒有影響。因此，讓我們考慮一下目前的規模約為 300 億美元。

Can you talk to CapEx. The CapEx for me, $2 billion, it's not at $70, but will change our strategy, policy when we speak about short-term short cycle is our CapEx, which at $70 will give us a payback, which is quite quick, in fact. And so for me, the change, it's only if we are going to [$50, $60] per barrel, but we could consider activating part of this flexibility and arbitrating some of these short-cycle CapEx because the payback from these additional wells will be longer. So I see no difference from between $70 and $90. The market today seems to be down to $70.

能和資本支出談談嗎？對我來說，資本支出是20 億美元，不是70 美元，但會改變我們的策略、政策，當我們談論短期短期週期時，就是我們的資本支出，70 美元會給我們帶來回報，事實上，回報相當快。因此，對我來說，這種變化只有在我們每桶[50 美元、60 美元] 的情況下才會發生，但我們可以考慮激活部分靈活性併仲裁其中一些短週期資本支出，因為這些額外油井的回報將是更長。所以我認為 70 美元和 90 美元之間沒有區別。今天的市場似乎跌至 70 美元。

But again, from this perspective, the guidance we gave you the last CMD, you can consider them good. By the way, I remind you just to correct slightly, Jean-Pierre, it's [$17 billion, $18 billion], not [$16 billion, $18 billion] for the year. [$17 billion, $18 billion] for the year '24. And for next year, we told you it will be in the range of [$16 billion, $18 billion], and you [$18 billion] of organic CapEx.

但同樣，從這個角度來看，我們給你最後一個CMD的指導，你可以認為它們很好。順便說一句，我提醒你稍微糾正一下，Jean-Pierre，今年是[170億美元，180億美元]，而不是[160億美元，180億美元]。 24 年 [170 億美元，180 億美元]。我們告訴您明年的有機資本支出將在 [160 億美元、180 億美元] 範圍內，而您的有機資本支出將在 [180 億美元] 範圍內。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫納，伯恩斯坦。

My first question on refining. Obviously, a very weak quarter. Patrick, you have said before that you are not positive on the business. But do you see grounds for optimism that as with class starts returning 2.2 million barrels a day to the market, margins could strengthen meaningfully from the current $25, which I believe is your breakeven level.

我的第一個問題是關於精煉的。顯然，這是一個非常疲軟的季度。派崔克，你之前說過你對這項業務並不樂觀。但您是否有理由樂觀地認為，隨著班級開始每天向市場返還 220 萬桶石油，利潤率可能會比目前的 25 美元大幅增加，我認為這是您的盈虧平衡水平。

And then my second question on LNG. Recently, Total was quoted in the press as expecting the next wave of capacity to be delayed by two years, which is obviously very material. You're a key participant to that global increase through your strategic focus on LNG. Can you share with us where you see the delays, which big projects are driving this view. And in that delay scenario, where would you expect ETF next year, please?

然後是我關於液化天然氣的第二個問題。最近，媒體引述道達爾的話說，預計下一波產能將推遲兩年，這顯然是非常重要的。透過對液化天然氣的策略性關注，您成為全球成長的關鍵參與者。您能否與我們分享您在哪裡看到了延誤，哪些大型專案推動了這一觀點。在這種延遲的情況下，您預計明年 ETF 會在哪裡？

Okay. I don't know what is -- in the first refining. Refining the average margin on -- you can take different metrics. It's around $35 per ton on ['23]. And by the way, this is the planning assumption we use internally on the long term is $35 per ton, which is higher than the [$25] today.

好的。我不知道什麼是──在第一次精煉中。細化平均利潤－您可以採用不同的指標。 ['23] 價格約為每噸 35 美元。順便說一句，這是我們內部使用的長期規劃假設為每噸 35 美元，高於今天的 [25 美元]。

And that's why we are working hard to have this breakeven going down to $25 per ton. But I'm moderately optimistic about the this event. I think we benefited from two years where doing over 2021, there was a huge acceleration of some shutdowns of refinery in the Atlantic basins. On both sides, by the way, in particular, on the Americas side in Caribbean Ireland in the US, a lot of conversion to buy a refinery. Then we had the dislocation of the market because of Russian flows, which has added, I would say, some dislocation and some pushing the margin up.

這就是為什麼我們努力將損益平衡點降至每噸 25 美元。但我對這次事件持適度樂觀的態度。我認為我們從 2021 年的兩年中受益，大西洋盆地一些煉油廠的關閉速度大幅加快。順便說一句，在雙方，特別是在美洲加勒比海地區的愛爾蘭，美國有很多轉產購買煉油廠。然後，由於俄羅斯的資金流入，我們出現了市場混亂，我想說，這增加了一些混亂，並推高了利潤率。

I think since, of course, like always, when price margins are good, people stop continuing to restructuring, in particular [EMEA], Europe. We've even seen some few small refineries, which were supposed to be a shutdown, which was maintained. And then on the top of it, you had some new refineries, which have started, in particular, in China, which have added an additional capacity -- the Chinese were suppose in their policy to shut down some what they call the pipes, the old small refineries, but the deports are still cooking, I would say. And that means that you have quite a lot of supply at the same time.

我認為，當然，就像往常一樣，當價格利潤良好時，人們就會停止繼續重組，特別是歐洲、中東和非洲地區。我們甚至看到了一些本來應該關閉的小型煉油廠，但它們得到了維護。除此之外，還有一些新的煉油廠已經開工，特別是在中國，這些煉油廠增加了額外的產能——中國人在他們的政策中假設要關閉一些他們所謂的管道、老舊的小煉油廠，但我想說的是，驅逐艦仍在烹飪。這意味著你同時擁有相當多的供應。

And today, in fact, we are also facing in Europe, the fact that some products are coming from the US, which can because the Russian products go to South America, US coming to Europe. And Europe, last point, last but not least. As you know, industry demand in Europe is not very strong today. So that means that we are back, I would say, to the traditional cycle. We are high, we stopped.

事實上，今天我們在歐洲也面臨一些產品來自美國的事實，這可能是因為俄羅斯產品銷往南美，美國產品銷往歐洲。最後一點是歐洲，也是最後但並非最不重要的一點。如您所知，目前歐洲的工業需求並不是很強勁。我想說，這意味著我們又回到了傳統週期。我們很高，我們停了下來。

I mean we, not TotalEnergies, so the industry to, I would say, restructuring to capture the good margins. And I think the hard times are just there to come back fundamentally what was true before is still true today. You have to many is more refineries in Europe, and everybody has to do his job, I would say. One way, as you know, is to transform the refinery in biorefineries because at the same time, in Europe, we benefit from regulations, which push biofuels for having a better demand for biofuels for regulation. So I would say that some optimism a moderately optimistic.

我的意思是我們，而不是TotalEnergies，所以我想說，該行業需要進行重組，以獲得良好的利潤。我認為困難時期只是為了從根本上回歸過去的真實情況，今天仍然如此。我想說，歐洲有很多煉油廠，每個人都必須做好自己的工作。如您所知，一種方法是將煉油廠改造為生物煉油廠，因為同時，在歐洲，我們受益於法規，這推動生物燃料對生物燃料進行更好的監管需求。所以我想說，有些樂觀是適度樂觀。

I will be more optimistic if I see more, I would say, announcement about shutting down refinery, but it takes time. it takes time. So let's see, the $35 per ton are for me, a good long-term plan. And then it's volatile, so I hope we will capture more in the future. But like for oil price, it's difficult to be to guess about it LNG.

我想說，如果我看到更多關於關閉煉油廠的公告，我會更加樂觀，但這需要時間。這需要時間。所以讓我們看看，每噸 35 美元對我來說是一個很好的長期計劃。然後它是不穩定的，所以我希望我們將來能捕獲更多。但就像石油價格一樣，很難猜測液化天然氣。

I don't know who we say two years. No, I think we were very clear I was very clear in New York CMD. I told you that we were thinking that the wave will begin, not '26, but '27 I think nobody never spoke about '25, I think we don't see a bigger additional supply in '25 was never mentioned. It was a debate between '26 and '27. We are just reading the news and we have some projects in the US, which have been delayed for different reasons.

我不知道我們說的兩年是誰。不，我認為我們非常清楚，我在紐約 CMD 也非常清楚。我告訴過你，我們認為這波浪潮將開始，不是26 年，而是27 年，我認為沒有人從未談論過25 年，我認為我們不會看到25 年有更大的額外供應，也從未被提及。這是26年和27年之間的辯論。我們剛剛看到新聞，我們在美國有一些項目，由於不同的原因被推遲了。

So I would say, in my view, we stick to -- there is no additional comments, the one we have done. The wave of additional capacity, 10% per year during three years will for us begin maybe second half '26 but '27, '28, '29. So for 2025, I would say we are expecting TTF it's seasonal. So it's the average on the year. The average today on TTF is around, I think, $10, $12.

所以我想說，在我看來，我們堅持——沒有額外的評論，我們已經做了。對我們來說，三年內每年增加 10% 的產能浪潮可能會在 26 年下半年開始，但會在 27 年、28 年、29 年開始。因此，對於 2025 年，我想說我們預計 TTF 是季節性的。所以這是一年中的平均值。我認為今天 TTF 的平均價格約為 10 美元、12 美元。

Now today, we are more in $12, $13. I have the NBP of [12.4]. So TTF has been more or less at the same level by NBP. So we anticipate for '25 something in the same range. I think, I would say, around an average of around $12 per million because, again, we don't see in '25, any additional capacity, which would suddenly change the fundamentals of I would say, a market which still under tension. And then we'll see by '26. And of course, we will follow carefully all the news of start-up of delays along the year 2025. So again, I'm not sure to one year, '27, yes, two years no, and '25 should remain, in our view, the same type of environment that we have benefited in '24. So positive for Total energies as a big LNG player.

現在，我們的價格是 12 美元、13 美元。我的 NBP 為 [12.4]。所以 TTF 與 NBP 大致處於同一水平。因此，我們預期 25 年會出現相同範圍的情況。我認為，我想說，平均約為每百萬美元 12 美元左右，因為我們在 25 年沒有看到任何額外的產能，這會突然改變我想說的市場基本面，這個市場仍然處於緊張狀態。到 26 年我們就見分曉了。當然，我們將仔細關注 2025 年延遲啟動的所有消息。 24 年受益的環境類型相同。作為大型液化天然氣公司，道達爾能源的前景非常樂觀。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

克里斯多福‧庫普倫特，美國銀行。

Just two questions on renewables, please from me. I want to double check, Patrick, if you could give us a little more detail on how you feel the current market sits. I think since we saw you in New York, you've farmed into an RWE project. Is it easier to farm in these days? How much more difficult is it to find partners for farm downs that you're looking for in parallel on other projects? And maybe related to that, please let us know what you think of making a corporate acquisition as Equinor did becoming a 10% shareholder of [Orsted] and whether you would contemplate anything similar for Total.

請向我提出兩個有關再生能源的問題。派崔克，我想再確認一下您是否可以向我們提供更多有關您對當前市場狀況的看法的詳細資訊。我想自從我們在紐約見到你以來，你已經參與了 RWE 計畫。現在種田容易嗎？為農場尋找合作夥伴與您同時在其他專案上尋找合作夥伴有多困難？也許與此相關，請告訴我們您對進行企業收購的看法，因為 Equinor 確實成為了 [Orsted] 10% 的股東，以及您是否會考慮對 Total 進行類似的收購。

The first one is quite easy. We had an option which was negotiated with RWE because as you've noticed, we made a farm in the Dutch offshore won in connections with our will to decarbonize our [Zeeland] refinery through green hydrogen. So that was part. We negotiated an option was efficient, I would say, a successful to get access to offshore and licenses with a low cost of entry. So it would be strange from us not to exercise our option because, obviously, so they work well.

第一個很簡單。我們有一個與 RWE 談判的選擇，因為正如您所注意到的，我們在荷蘭近海建造了一個農場，這與我們透過綠色氫使我們的 [Zeeland] 煉油廠脫碳的意願有關。這就是一部分。我想說，我們談判達成的選擇是有效的，成功地以較低的進入成本獲得離岸和許可。因此，如果我們不行使我們的選擇權，那會很奇怪，因為很明顯，它們運作得很好。

We benefited from it, and it's good for us. That could let us, of course, to -- as you know, we are trying more to be willing to scale these offshore wind licenses. By the way, working closely with RWE is also a good upfront for us and for them to go globally because we need two main players. So I think driving down the cost will be by, I would say, scaling up these developments together, that's something we can't (inaudible). And for us, I would say, we have more options offshore wind Germany.

我們從中受益，這對我們有好處。當然，這可以讓我們——如你所知，我們正在努力擴大這些離岸風電許可證的規模。順便說一句，與 RWE 密切合作對我們和他們走向全球來說也是一個很好的先決條件，因為我們需要兩個主要參與者。因此，我認為降低成本將透過擴大這些開發規模來實現，但這是我們做不到的（聽不清楚）。我想說，對我們來說，我們在德國離岸風電有更多選擇。

And so we will see in which order we must develop the different package. But again, it's was a good opportunity and the answer from this perspective was obvious to us. I don't like to comment the move of my competitors. I respect each everybody has its own strategy. Our Norwegian France are very focused on offshore wind.

因此，我們將看到必須按什麼順序開發不同的套件。但同樣，這是一個很好的機會，從這個角度來看，答案對我們來說是顯而易見的。我不喜歡評論我的競爭對手的舉動。我尊重每個人，每個人都有自己的策略。我們的挪威法國非常關注離岸風電。

So they are probably good answers. What is clear is that, in my view, just to comment, and now we have been consistent to become a minority shareholder of a competitor without on our side and industrial strategy. We've never done it. And so when we went to [Vivadeni], yes, we are a minority shareholder of anlagen but we developed the same site, some JV to have access to some industrial assets. So that's the way I see this type of leverage.

所以它們可能是很好的答案。可以明確的是，在我看來，這只是發表評論，現在我們一直一致成為競爭對手的少數股東，而沒有站在我們這一邊，也沒有產業戰略。我們從來沒有這樣做過。因此，當我們去 [Vivadeni] 時，是的，我們是 anlagen 的少數股東，但我們開發了相同的場地，一些合資企業可以使用一些工業資產。這就是我對這種槓桿的看法。

It's probably, I don't know, I did not study carefully the case of Orsted and Equinor, but I think I respect that decision. And again, on our side, we think that we can develop organically some efficient offshore wind assets -- and that's why we have done it by -- I would not have considered such acquisition, but again, I respect their decision.

我不知道，可能是我沒有仔細研究 Orsted 和 Equinor 的案例，但我想我尊重這個決​​定。再說一遍，就我們而言，我們認為我們可以有機地開發一些高效的離岸風電資產——這就是我們這樣做的原因——我不會考慮這樣的收購，但我再次尊重他們的決定。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to get back to the question that Irene also asked about, which is refining margin, specifically in Europe. Because there are -- it's quite a lot of sort of indication that there are some economic run cuts in the European refining system. But looking at the data that you reported today and also the guidance for utilization in the fourth quarter, assumingly not in the total portfolio. So I just want to sort of confirm the margins have declined quite a bit, but they're not low enough for you to consider any economic run cuts, right? That was the first I wanted to ask.

我想回到艾琳也問過的問題，也就是煉油利潤，特別是在歐洲。因為有許多跡象顯示歐洲煉油系統的經濟運作有所削減。但看看您今天報告的數據以及第四季度的使用率指導，假設不在總投資組合中。所以我只是想確認一下利潤率已經下降了很多，但還沒有低到讓你考慮任何經濟運行削減，對吧？這是我首先想問的。

And the second one is about the balance sheet. Last quarter, gearing 10% during the earnings call, you talked about the sort of underlying level of about 7% to 8% if you cleaned up for a few noisy items. We're now with 12%. What explains the difference between the sort of 7% to 8% that was mentioned last quarter that after now? And how do you expect that to develop over the next one or two quarters, please?

第二個是關於資產負債表的。上個季度，在財報電話會議期間，您的負債率為 10%，您談到如果您清理了一些噪音項目，則基本水平約為 7% 至 8%。我們現在有 12%。如何解釋上個季度提到的 7% 到 8% 之間的差異？您預計未來一、兩個季度的發展如何？

Okay. On refining margin, honestly, I'm not sure we are big enough to consider our self-cutting runs just to please our competitors. That's a type of strategy, which is which there is not a topic of the European refiners. So I mean, we are today at the breakeven. And I think it's something which -- because when you have quite high fixed costs, and so I compare that more on the variable, it's more a question of variable do we cover our variable costs.

好的。在精煉利潤方面，老實說，我不確定我們是否足夠大，是否會考慮我們的自我削減業務只是為了取悅我們的競爭對手。這是一種策略，歐洲煉油商沒有討論過這種策略。所以我的意思是，我們今天處於損益平衡狀態。我認為這是因為當你有相當高的固定成本時，所以我更多地比較可變成本，這更多是一個可變問題，我們是否涵蓋可變成本。

breakeven is calculated in terms of fixed plus variable costs as long as we are -- the margin is better than the variable cost, it's better to run the refineries in order to cover part of your fixed costs. So we are largely covering our variable costs. So that's simple economic theory. But so no, we are not there. The question will be more for us, more structurally.

損益平衡是根據固定成本加變動成本計算的，只要我們——利潤優於變動成本，最好經營煉油廠以涵蓋部分固定成本。因此，我們在很大程度上覆蓋了可變成本。這就是簡單的經濟理論。但所以不，我們不在那裡。對我們來說，這個問題將會更具結構性。

And as you know, we have already transformed some refineries in biorefineries in [15], in [20] as we have been always clear that we are working on the follow-up of this one just on one side to capture the opportunity of the European biofuel markets on the other side because except the last two years, generally, it's economically margin. So this is more an important question for me. Our instructions to our teams is to make the best use of your assets -- and as long as you cover your variable costs, obviously, you have to run in order to cover part of the fixed cost. Second question. No, I mean let be clear, we are -- I don't know, the [7%,8%] was last year.

如你所知，我們已經在[15]和[20]中對生物精煉廠中的一些精煉廠進行了改造，因為我們一直很清楚，我們正在致力於這一項目的後續工作，以抓住這一機會歐洲生物燃料市場則相反，因為除了過去兩年外，整體而言，它的經濟利潤率很高。所以這對我來說是一個更重要的問題。我們對團隊的指示是充分利用您的資產——只要您支付可變成本，顯然，您就必須運作才能支付部分固定成本。第二個問題。不，我的意思是讓我們澄清一下，我們 - 我不知道，[7%,8%] 是去年的。

We have more -- you know that we have explained to you, there is in the gearing of different aspects. It's a little high today. I think we should be back in the range that you mentioned, 10% to 12% by the end of the year for different reasons. For this quarter, as you've seen, we still have -- and I think Jean-Pierre was clear in his speech -- we anticipate a working capital release of $2 billion for the next quarter, which is in line with what with the guidance we gave since the beginning of the year.

我們還有更多——你知道我們已經向你解釋過，有不同方面的傳動裝置。今天有點高。我認為由於不同的原因，我們應該在今年年底前回到你提到的 10% 到 12% 的範圍。正如您所看到的，對於本季度，我們仍然預計下季度將釋放 20 億美元的營運資金，我認為 Jean-Pierre 在他的演講中已經明確表示，這與我們自年初以來就給出了指導。

We had a big cash -- I mean, working cap, not really cash out at the beginning of the year, more than $4 billion, if I remember, $2 billion were perfectly linked to exceptional events of last year of taxation so 2023. And over $2 billion should be coming back in the balance sheet before year-end. So I know that all the businesses are working on it. So I would say this is part of it. Then the other part of it is that as some of you have noticed, probably the CapEx were high because this quarter we have more acquisition than sales.

我們有一大筆現金——我的意思是，工作上限，並沒有真正在年初兌現，超過 40 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話，20 億美元與去年稅收的特殊事件完全相關，所以 2023 年。年底前應有超過20 億美元回到資產負債表。所以我知道所有企業都在為此努力。所以我想說這是其中的一部分。另一方面，正如你們中的一些人所注意到的，資本支出可能很高，因為本季我們的收購量多於銷售量。

The inorganic was high, but it will be rebalanced. It's a question of again, phasing the divestments. And as you know, we are expecting some renewable divestments because it's part of the model, which should be concluded and in this type of business of M&A, there is a lot of things rushing last minute come the last quarter. And we don't push them necessarily just to finalize all these -- close the deal before September 30, December 31, but it not only TotalEnergies, it's a common practice. So I would say my view is that we should come back to something like around [11%, 12%] by the end of the year.

無機物很高，但會重新平衡。這又是一個分階段撤資的問題。如您所知，我們預計會有一些可再生能源撤資，因為這是該模型的一部分，應該得出結論，在這種類型的併購業務中，有很多事情是在上個季度的最後一刻匆忙進行的。我們不一定只是敦促他們敲定所有這些——在 9 月 30 日、12 月 31 日之前完成交易，但這不僅僅是 TotalEnergies，這是一種常見的做法。所以我想說，我的觀點是，我們應該在年底前回到 [11%, 12%] 左右的水平。

This is what we can anticipate on if, of course, we remain in these type of [undermet] price, price environment of today. That's what I can tell you. But again, I know you, Martin, this type of gearing was anticipated at the board level when we discussed about shareholder returns, and we gave you the guidance for next year about $2 billion per quarter for share buyback and dividend increasing at least by the buyback of ['23], which is at least by 5% it was anticipated this type of gearing level.

當然，如果我們仍然處於當今這種[低於標準]的價格環境中，這是我們可以預期的。這就是我能告訴你的。但再說一次，我知道你，馬丁，當我們討論股東回報時，董事會層面就預料到了這種類型的槓桿率，並且我們為明年的股票回購和股息增加提供了指導，即每季度約20 億美元，股息至少增加回購 ['23]，至少比預期的此類負債水準高出 5%。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊蓋特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Patrick, I know you've been asked extensively about refining this morning, but I want to ask the same question a little differently. Some of your peers have started to consider shutting refineries when they have a major capital event like a turnaround -- and as we appear to be coming into an extended downturn, let's assume for refining for the time being, how do you see the portfolio today? I understand the breakeven is $25, but are there any assets you would consider rationalizing at this point if this continues?

派崔克，我知道今天早上你被廣泛詢問了有關精煉的問題，但我想以稍微不同的方式問同樣的問題。您的一些同行已經開始考慮在發生重大資本事件（例如扭虧為盈）時關閉煉油廠 - 由於我們似乎正在陷入長期低迷，讓我們暫時假設煉油廠，您如何看待今天的投資組合？我知道損益平衡點是 25 美元，但如果這種情況繼續下去，您目前會考慮合理化哪些資產嗎？

Again, we've done it, and we've done it with Le Mans in 2015. We've done it with Grand Prix in 2020. And it's quite clear that when we do it, we try to look to the agenda of the shutdowns to avoid to spend a lot of money on the refinery and to shut down one year after. So that's part of the -- but shutting turnaround of refineries, it happens every -- some of them, by the way, in our case, are making turnarounds every two years, some of them have more longer cycle for five years. So that is taken into consideration.

我們再次做到了這一點，我們在2015 年的勒芒賽事中做到了這一點。 。所以這是一部分——但是關閉煉油廠的周轉，這種情況每一次都會發生——順便說一句，在我們的例子中，其中一些煉油廠每兩年進行一次週轉，其中一些的周期更長，長達五年。所以要考慮到這一點。

But it's not because of the turnaround, which again we will avoid we will make a decision before to spend it for sure. But I would say, again, more the way we have selected Le Mans that we are selecting Grand Prix is more, in fact, the structural, I would say, weakness or interest to transform them because of allocation because of their markets, et cetera. So when we think to this type of -- we have six, seven refineries, I think today is still remaining in [one, two, three, four, five, six] refineries in Europe. We know each of these assets, we know their strength, we know our weakness. And as you know, we have been consistently -- my view is that we need to transform them one after one and at each of this event is quite a big event in terms of not only reinvestment on the platform to transform but also in terms of social impact.

但這並不是因為週轉，我們將再次避免這種週轉，我們會在確定花掉它之前做出決定。但我想說，我們選擇勒芒的方式更多的是我們選擇大獎賽的方式，事實上，我想說的是，由於市場分配等原因，結構性的弱點或興趣來改變它們。因此，當我們想到這種類型時——我們有六、七家煉油廠，我認為今天仍然留在歐洲的[一、二、三、四、五、六]煉油廠。我們了解這些資產中的每一項，我們知道它們的優勢，我們也知道我們的劣勢。如您所知，我們一直以來 - 我的觀點是，我們需要一個又一個地改造它們，每次活動都是相當大的活動，不僅在平台上進行再投資以進行改造，而且在社會影響。

It's better to face them rather than to wait 2035 and the decrease of the gasoline and diesel market in Europe, which will happen because of the decisions of the EU about the EVs and all that. So yes, we will continue to plan it. And of course, we will avoid to wait to spend the money on the platform to just after announce that we will shut down. But again, for me, it's not because this strategic thinking is not linked to the low cycle of today. We are prepared it since we have a large one.

最好面對它們，而不是等待 2035 年以及歐洲汽油和柴油市場的下降，這將由於歐盟關於電動車的決定而發生。所以是的，我們將繼續計劃。當然，我們會避免等到宣布關閉後才把錢花在平台上。但對我來說，這並不是因為這種戰略思維與當今的低週期無關。我們準備好了，因為我們有一個大的。

I would say we are preparing. The next one, the question is then to what are the different opportunities and to be sure that we are and the markets are moving from this perspective, including this biofuel market in Europe is moving. Today, it's facing some of the supply. So all these type of thinking could affect us in North Canada, so we are working on it. But again, this is also important, in my view.

我想說我們正在準備。下一個問題是有哪些不同的機會，並確保我們和市場正在從這個角度發展，包括歐洲的生物燃料市場正在發展。如今，它面臨部分供應的問題。因此，所有這些類型的想法都可能影響我們加拿大北部的人，所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。但在我看來，這也很重要。

Normally, in a market economy, you have, what I would say, the cost (inaudible) of different assets. And when the margins are low, the first ones to shut down are the ones with higher breakeven, I would say. So as we have good assets with low breakeven, I'm expecting others to move to shut down before us normally is the way it works. Otherwise, so we'll see. And having said that, again, you know our ambition, I would say, more on the opportunity side, the positive side.

通常，在市場經濟中，我想說的是不同資產的成本（聽不清楚）。我想說，當利潤率較低時，首先關閉的是那些損益平衡較高的公司。因此，由於我們擁有盈虧平衡點較低的優質資產，我預計其他人會在我們之前關閉，這通常是它的運作方式。否則，我們拭目以待。話雖如此，我想說的是，你知道我們的雄心，更多的是在機會方面，積極的方面。

You know that we consider that this biofuel market, the soft market in Europe with a mandate of 6% is giving good opportunities. for brownfield projects rather than for greenfield ones. So we exclude (inaudible). So we will -- and we have the ambition to continue to benefit from this market.

你知道，我們認為這個生物燃料市場，歐洲的軟市場，佔 6% 的授權，提供了一個很好的機會。適用於棕地專案而不是綠地專案。所以我們排除（聽不清楚）。因此，我們將——而且我們有雄心壯志繼續從這個市場中受益。

My follow-up is a quick one on Suriname. Obviously, you -- sadly, I was unable to be in person in New York when you presented the strategy update, but you did talk about Surinam sanctioned on a four-year plateau. But with tieback opportunities, since then, your partner has been suggesting the plateau could be extended as much as to eight years. I wonder if I could ask you to offer your perspective on that.

我的後續行動是關於蘇利南的快速行動。顯然，遺憾的是，當您介紹戰略更新時，我無法親自前往紐約，但您確實談到了蘇利南在四年的高原期受到製裁。但從那時起，有了回扣機會，你的合作夥伴就一直建議這個穩定期可能會延長長達八年。我想知道是否可以請您就此發表看法。

We are the operator of the project.

我們是該專案的運營商。

So what's your view on the long-term platform?

那麼您對長期平台有何看法呢？

I stick to what we told you. We are the operator of the project. We said that this plateau is designed for four years. We also explained that we have selected quite high plateau level because we consider that [Mogo] could be the hub of more tiebacks. I'm unable to quantify it because most of these tiebacks have not yet been drilled. So let's delve before to speak about the duration.

我堅持我們告訴你的話。我們是該專案的運營商。我們說這個高原是設計四年的。我們還解釋說，我們選擇了相當高的高原水平，因為我們認為 [Mogo] 可能成為更多回扣的中心。我無法量化它，因為大多數回接尚未鑽探。因此，讓我們先深入探討一下持續時間。

[Biraj Borkhataria, Bank of America].

[Biraj Borkhataria，美國銀行]。

I just had one related to back to the CFFO, again, at the start of this year, you gave CFFO guidance, which looks like it's something close to [$34 billion]. And the macro environment that you showed then versus what we've seen is not that different. Obviously, refining has been weaker. Is it possible to help me bridge the gap between the $34-ish billion that you maybe originally envisaged and the $30 billion or so that you mentioned today. Any moving parts there would be helpful.

我剛剛收到了一個與 CFFO 相關的消息，今年年初，你們給了 CFFO 指導，看起來接近 [340 億美元]。您當時所展示的宏觀環境與我們所看到的並沒有太大不同。顯然，煉化已經弱化了。是否可以幫助我彌補您最初設想的 340 億美元左右與您今天提到的 300 億美元左右之間的差距。那裡的任何活動部件都會有幫助。

I don't remember $34 billion, Ihad $32 billion in mind. But I would say clearly along the year, the gas price was lower than expected during the first half of the year. I think we have been clear. We went down under $10 per million BTU during the first half. The European inventories are very completely replenished.

我不記得 340 億美元，我腦子裡只有 320 億美元。但我要明確地說，今年上半年的天然氣價格低於預期。我想我們已經很清楚了。上半年，我們的價格下降到每百萬 BTU 10 美元以下。歐洲的庫存得到了非常充分的補充。

It has a seasonal effect. We are back since this summer to $12, $13 per million BTU, more in line with our assumptions. So I would say there is $1 billion somewhere for me, which is linked to this gas. The market has been less volatile, and it's true that in a less volatile market or trading business has been a performance, which was very good, more than super good with excellence in ['22, '23], benefiting from big volatility when the market is quite stable, it's more difficult. So I would say there is [$1 billion] (inaudible) out of this [$1 billion, $1.5 billion] out of this gas trading and low gas pricing.

它具有季節性效應。自今年夏天以來，我們又回到了每百萬 BTU 12 美元、13 美元，更符合我們的假設。所以我想說，我有 10 億美元，與這種天然氣有關。市場波動較小，確實，在波動較小的市場或交易業務中，業績非常好，超過了['22，'23]的卓越表現，受益於大波動，當市場比較穩定，難度比較大。所以我想說，天然氣交易和低天然氣定價中有 [10 億美元]（聽不清楚）[10 億美元，15 億美元]。

The other part will come from this refining business. We think we're losing, I would say, I don't know, I don't have the figures in my $500 million [more] or less. I think the best -- we will reconcile all that by the end of the year because the year is not yet finished in any case. So I would say that's the main, I would say, the main elements I have in mind.

另一部分將來自煉油業務。我們認為我們正在失敗，我會說，我不知道，我沒有 5 億美元[更多]或更少的數字。我認為最好的方法是——我們將在年底前協調所有這些問題，因為無論如何今年還沒有結束。所以我想說，這是我想到的主要要素。

But what I suggest, Biraj, is that, again, I'm trying -- my teams try to calculate quicker than me. But they are a little slow. So the best is that I think you can -- they will give you a call to tell you. But again, I don't have all the math here between the [$34 billion] and the [30]. Okay. So gas and refining.

但比拉吉，我的建議是，我再次嘗試——我的團隊嘗試比我計算得更快。但他們有點慢。所以最好的是我認為你可以——他們會打電話給你告訴你。但同樣，我沒有 [340 億美元] 和 [30] 之間的所有數學數據。好的。故氣而煉。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

盧卡斯·赫爾曼，法國巴黎銀行。

Yes. A couple as well, if I might. I wanted to focus on Nigeria for a moment, if I might. Firstly, Patrice, can you just remind me where we are around the sale of the onshore assets to [Capa] is that expected to complete -- where are things with the authorities just a -- and also could you make any comment on Nigeria [7] and progress in terms of development and timing -- and just generally on gas close into Nigeria LNG and how those have been progressing through this year and may have a play to your offtake -- and then secondly, just if JP perhaps could comment at all on the write-off that you've taken this quarter of $1 billion or so of asset write-down, which looks very much as though with SunPower, but just explain to me -- that's it.

是的。如果可以的話，還有一對。如果可以的話，我想暫時關注尼日利亞。首先，帕特里斯，你能提醒我一下，我們向 [Capa] 出售陸上資產的進展預計將完成嗎？方面的進展- 以及總體上接近尼日利亞液化天然氣的天然氣以及這些項目今年的進展情況，可能會對您的承購產生影響- 其次，JP 是否可以發表評論根本上講，您在本季度已經進行了10億美元左右的資產減記，這看起來與SunPower 非常相似，但請向我解釋一下- 就是這樣。

Okay. On the cultural assets well, I think we have progressed. There are some have we received some approval from MPC. I think recently, the regulator said that we should have a green light. So we are working on it.

好的。在文化資產方面，我認為我們已經取得了進步。其中一些我們已獲得 MPC 的批准。我想最近監管機構說我們應該開綠燈。所以我們正在努力。

And just we are not in the same position that some of our peers because we are not operating and we are in an operating position. So I think it's easier for the authorities to evaluate the quality of the buyer because we are a nonoperator. So we transfer -- and we have a limited share. We have 10%. So the 10% is limited share, nonoperated positions.

只是我們與一些同行的處境不同，因為我們沒有運營，而是處於運營狀態。所以我認為當局更容易評估買家的質量，因為我們是非經營者。所以我們轉讓——而且我們的份額有限。我們有10%。所以這 10% 是有限份額、非經營部位。

So of course, in terms of evaluation by the regulators, it's easier probably to improve. And our buyer, by the way, have been already approved recently in a deal on an offshore asset, an unoperated offshore asset. So it's a buyer with well-known [biofuel authorities]. So I do not anticipate difficulties on it. And we have -- so we receive. There is a process to follow and we are following that carefully. So that's point.

當然，從監管機構的評估來看，可能更容易改進。順便說一句，我們的買家最近已經在一項離岸資產（一項未運營的離岸資產）交易中獲得批准。所以它是一個擁有知名[生質燃料權威]的買家。所以我預計這方面不會有困難。我們已經——所以我們收到了。有一個流程需要遵循，我們正在仔細遵循流程。這就是重點。

On [27], as you know, we have been working hard for the last year. in order to obtain the good right terms to be able to develop some new gas projects in order to fill the because it's -- as you know, we have already some difficulty to supply all the gas through the first six ranges. So I've been quite clear myself, but I think our colleagues as well our peers as well with the Nigerian authorities but it's time to accelerate the sanctioning of gas projects in order to fill this range.

在[27]上，如你所知，我們去年一直在努力。為了獲得良好的正確條件，能夠開發一些新的天然氣項目，以便填補這一空缺，因為如您所知，我們在前六個範圍供應所有天然氣方面已經遇到了一些困難。所以我自己已經說得很清楚了，但我認為我們的同事、同行以及尼日利亞當局現在是時候加快批准天然氣項目以填補這一範圍了。

We have got some improvements, in particular on the transfer gas price between the upstream and the downstream. Ourselves, we have sanctioned the first projects, [Ubita], which has been sanctioned this year, which is dedicated to fill this [train 7]. So TotalEnergies will be in line with its commitments in terms of supplying the first the seven trains. We are working on another one, which is called IMA, which is a very quite low-cost gas fell very next to Bone Island. So we are working on it, trying to sanction that in ['25].

我們已經有了一些改進，特別是在上下游之間的轉讓天然氣價格方面。我們自己已經批准了第一個項目[Ubita]，該項目是今年批准的，致力於填補這個[火車7]。因此，TotalEnergies 將履行其供應首批七列列車的承諾。我們正在開發另一種，稱為 IMA，這是一種成本非常低的天然氣，位於骨頭島旁邊。所以我們正在努力，試圖在 ['25] 中批准這一點。

So it's a good opportunity to monetize gas reserves the authorities have enhanced, I would say, the global package to varli fiscal leaves the gas reserves. So things should be aligned. Again, Nigeria is not an easy one, an easy country. But at the end, we managed to make good projects and profitable projects. So I would say I'm positive on that.

因此，這是將當局增加的天然氣儲備貨幣化的好機會，我想說的是，全球瓦利財政計畫保留了天然氣儲備。所以事情應該保持一致。再說一次，奈及利亞不是一個容易的國家，一個容易的國家。但最終，我們成功地做出了好的專案和有利可圖的專案。所以我想說我對此持正面態度。

The write-off, I think Jean-Pierre is clear, there are two parts. One was linked to SunPower company went to Chapter 11, so we had to write off what was remaining because capital employed. And another part was linked to the decision that South African assets, where we made some discoveries, but the monetization of these gas discoveries was too difficult. In fact, there is no gas markets in gas infrastructure are very limited. The possibility to go from gas to power is also very complex because you can really newspaper the situation of Eskom in South Africa.

關於核銷，我認為讓皮耶說得很清楚，有兩個部分。其中一項與 SunPower 公司有關，已進入第 11 章，因此我們必須註銷剩餘的資金，因為資本已使用。另一部分與南非資產的決定有關，我們在那裡發現了一些天然氣，但這些天然氣發現的貨幣化太困難了。事實上，沒有天然氣市場的天然氣基礎設施非常有限。從天然氣轉向電力的可能性也非常複雜，因為你可以真正報告南非國家電力公司 (Eskom) 的情況。

So at the end, we decided that it was the effort, and we had some contractual commitments. So either we were moving on the development or we were stopping losing the assets. So I would say that was also a question of time line, which led us to take that decision. And it's true, but -- by the way, just to remind you, a long story on the South Africa, when we took these licenses was not to discover gas. That was because we are looking for oil -- like today, we are looking for oil in the licenses we have in South Africa next to Namibia.

所以最後，我們決定這就是努力，並且我們有一些合約承諾。因此，我們要么繼續開發，要么停止損失資產。所以我想說這也是一個時間軸問題，這導致我們做出了這個決定。這是真的，但是，順便提醒一下，南非的一個很長的故事，當我們獲得這些許可證時並不是為了發現天然氣。那是因為我們正在尋找石油——就像今天一樣，我們正在納米比亞旁邊的南非擁有的許可證中尋找石油。

So it's clear that all is easier to monetize in South Africa and gas. So in particular, when gas is not located next to customers and most of the industries in South Africa are not on the cost line for the country, but they are more in the northwest of the country, so a little far away. So it has never been easy. It's the gas market there, and that's the conclusion. But the two reasons why we make these to write off this quarter.

因此很明顯，在南非和天然氣中，一切都更容易貨幣化。因此，特別是當天然氣不在客戶旁邊時，南非的大多數工業都不在該國的成本線上，但它們更多地位於該國的西北部，所以有點遠。所以這從來都不是一件容易的事。這是那裡的天然氣市場，這就是結論。但我們在本季註銷這些的兩個原因。

Can I just push you a bit more on Nigeria, if I think about startup of Train 7. What's your latest commentary on when you might expect that to happen? And secondly, I mean, gas prices used to be nominal. So on very low till low in Nigeria. Just some sense of what you're actually able to -- or what price -- so I say what price do you need in order to justify an adequate return on the investment you're making?

如果我考慮一下 7 號列車的啟動，我可以再向您介紹一下尼日利亞的情況嗎？其次，我的意思是，天然氣價格過去只是像徵性的。所以尼日利亞的情況非常低。只是了解您實際上能夠做什麼 - 或什麼價格 - 所以我說您需要什麼價格才能證明您所做的投資獲得足夠的回報？

So Train 7 is expected to start up by '26, probably end of '26. That's part of the ones which are not to come back to a question that I had before, that's one of the train, which probably will not be in advance, to be clear. Okay. So you can push it more to '26 to '27 or other than '26, to be clear. And by the way, as we are also developing the gas, we don't need to have the train ready. And so we try to, I would say, spend the CapEx according to also the feed gas. Okay?

因此，7 號列車預計將於 26 年啟動，可能是 26 年底。這是其中一部分，不要回到我之前提出的問題，這是火車之一，可能不會提前澄清。好的。因此，需要明確的是，您可以將其推至“26”至“27”或“26”以外的位置。順便說一句，由於我們也在開發天然氣，因此我們不需要準備好火車。因此，我想說，我們也嘗試根據原料氣來支出資本支出。好的？

Yes. And price on gas that you're managing to get from (inaudible) the Nigerian to agree or an LNG to agree?

是的。您設法讓尼日利亞人（聽不清楚）同意的天然氣價格或液化天然氣價格同意嗎？

No, it's done. We have an agreement with them. We have increased and all the partners of LNG, I have agreed, but the gas transfer price from the uptrend to the plant will be higher which is no more because initially, historically, when it started in 1997 or 1998, there was a big alignment between the supplier and the shareholder, the foreign shareholder. And the shareholder, in fact, you have 60% in NPC. And then you have the three major players, Shell, TotalEnergies and E&I, which were on both sides.

不，已經完成了。我們與他們有協議。我們已經增加了液化天然氣的所有合作夥伴，我已經同意了，但是從上升趨勢到工廠的天然氣轉移價格將會更高，但現在已經不再是這樣了，因為最初，歷史上，當它在1997年或1998 年開始時，有一個很大的調整供應商與股東（即外國股東）之間。還有股東，其實你在NPC有60%的股份。然後是殼牌、TotalEnergies 和 E&I 三大主要參與者，它們分別位於雙方。

So in fact, the transfer price was an issue for the only JV, which was not participating to LNG, which was, in fact, by that time, the Conoco JV. But along the years, as you noticed, and that was why it was critical to solve it. We had different views, the different partners of LNG have different views on their commitments to develop upstream gas. So there was a point where as soon as you don't have an alignment, we don't see why TotalEnergies should develop more gas than its share for the benefit of other partners in an LNG. That was not very fair.

因此，事實上，轉讓價格是唯一沒有參與液化天然氣的合資企業的問題，事實上，當時的合資企業是康菲合資企業。但多年來，正如您所注意到的，這就是為什麼解決這個問題至關重要。我們有不同的看法，不同的LNG合作夥伴對於開發上游天然氣的承諾也有不同的看法。因此，一旦沒有達成一致，我們就不明白為什麼 TotalEnergies 應該為了液化天然氣其他合作夥伴的利益而開發比其份額更多的天然氣。這不太公平。

So that was the discussions, and we solve it collectively in the interest to do more gas trim. And of course, that means that the part of the margin is transferred from the downstream to the upstream in order to finance the development, that's quite clear. As we are on both sides, we are somewhere neutral, but it's not the case for everybody.

這就是討論，我們集體解決這個問題，以便進行更多的氣體調整。當然，這意味著一部分利潤從下游轉移到上游，以資助開發，這是很清楚的。由於我們雙方都處於中立狀態，但並非每個人都是如此。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

金‧福斯蒂爾，匯豐銀行。

I've got two, please. First on the outage at Ichthys LNG, you've talked to some time about preventive maintenance to try and minimize any unplanned outages is there a way that this issue on the heat exchanger could have been avoided in any way? I also understand that exit is expected to restart fully by mid-November. So should we expect a similar financial impact in Q4 as in Q3, so around $100 million. And then secondly, on net financial expenses. I've seen them tick up over the past few quarters. Could you talk about how your cost of debt is evolving as you refinance debt at presumably higher interest rates?

我有兩個，拜託。首先，關於 Ichthys LNG 的停電，您已經討論過一些關於預防性維護的問題，以盡量減少任何計劃外停電，有沒有辦法可以以任何方式避免熱交換器上的這個問題？我還了解到，退出預計將在 11 月中旬完全重啟。因此，我們是否應該預期第四季的財務影響與第三季類似，約為 1 億美元。其次，淨財務費用。我看到它們在過去幾個季度中有所上升。您能否談談當您以可能更高的利率為債務再融資時，您的債務成本是如何變化的？

Tim, I'm sorry, but I'm not in charge of all the tax changes of the company. And by the way, we are not operating the -- so something happened there. It has been solved. That's the point. And I think by the people in charge of operations are driving the lessons about to avoid these type of issues.

提姆，很抱歉，我不負責公司所有的稅務變更。順便說一句，我們沒有運作——所以那裡發生了一些事情。已經解決了。這就是重點。我認為負責營運的人員正在推動教訓以避免此類問題。

It's a big machine, it can happen. And I'm sure that our operator and my teams who are in Australia are working their best, doing their best to avoid this type of unplanned events. That's life, I would say. Financial impact on Q4, I think it has been sold. I think I think it is as we started, if I come into my information -- so the impact should be -- it's not only $200 million.

這是一台大機器，這是可能發生的。我確信我們在澳洲的操作員和我的團隊正在盡最大努力，盡力避免此類意外事件。我想說，這就是生活。對第四季度的財務影響，我認為它已經被出售了。我想我認為正如我們開始的那樣，如果我了解我的信息，那麼影響應該是——它不僅僅是 2 億美元。

I don't know why you mentioned [$200 million] or [$300 million]. I'm not sure it was so big as an individual because there were different impacts on the cash. It's not only this is part of it. I don't know you have an idea, Jean-Pierre.

我不知道你為什麼提到[2億美元]或[3億美元]。我不確定它對個人來說有多大，因為對現金有不同的影響。這不僅是其中的一部分。我不知道你有什麼想法，讓皮耶。

No, I don't have any idea.

不，我不知道。

Debt and interest rates. I will let Jean-Pierre is the expert of this debt management.

債務和利率。我會讓讓-皮埃爾成為這個債務管理的專家。

Yes, for the time, I have a very good portfolio in terms of costs below 4% globally. So I do not see the reason why I should reach a finance -- what we did, we made two insurance in the US market one in April and one in September, very successful because it was largely oversupplied and with very long maturities. So with strategy we continue to implement is to try to have longer maturity [30, 40] years as that rectified. But once again, it's very competitive bond portfolio.

是的，目前我擁有一個非常好的投資組合，全球成本低於 4%。所以我不明白為什麼我應該進行融資——我們做了什麼，我們在美國市場做了兩份保險，一份在四月，一份在九月，非常成功，因為它基本上供過於求，而且期限很長。因此，我們繼續實施的策略是嘗試在糾正後擁有更長的成熟度 [30, 40] 年。但這又是一個非常有競爭力的債券投資組合。

Okay. Just before we take the next question, I would like to answer to Biraj a little clearer because in the meantime, the teams have worked. So if Biraj is still online, he will be happy -- you are right, the [34] was expecting. We are more today at $30 billion, $31 billion expecting by the end of the year. So my doubt on the gas, the fact that the gas price was lower at $1 billion.

好的。在我們回答下一個問題之前，我想更清楚地回答 Biraj 的問題，因為與此同時，團隊一直在努力工作。因此，如果 Biraj 仍然在線，他會很高興 - 你是對的，[34] 正在期待。目前我們的營收已達 300 億美元，預計到年底將達到 310 億美元。所以我對天然氣表示懷疑，事實上天然氣價格低至 10 億美元。

The lower gas trading gas and LNG gas is $1 billion. So compared to the year before. So it's $2 billion on the, I would say, gas and LNG as a rule. And it's $1 billion on the refining margins. the last [$500 million], I'm not sure to have the figures.

較低的天然氣交易天然氣和液化天然氣為10億美元。所以與前年相比。因此，我想說，天然氣和液化天然氣的投資通常為 20 億美元。煉油利潤為 10 億美元。最後的[5億美元]，我不確定具體數字。

But just I'm correcting, I can easily go from [34 to 31], let's say, and then there is something which are different elements, but we'll come back to you next February involves the details just to be sure that the elements are shared with everybody.

但我正在糾正，我可以很容易地從 [34 到 31]，比方說，然後有一些不同的元素，但我們會在明年二月回复您涉及細節，只是為了確保元素與每個人共享。

Henri Patricot, UBS.

亨利‧派崔克，瑞銀集團。

Two questions, please. The first one, actually, just a quick follow-up on the comments around the CFFO generation in the year. I was wondering if in the Chemicals segment is also an area where you've seen lower cash flow than expected versus what you had at the start of the year through a combination of the macro and maybe store ramp-up of best or underlying performance elsewhere in the business? And then secondly, on the integrated or ROCE dipped below 10% this quarter. How quickly should we expect that (inaudible) to go back above the 10% level.

請教兩個問題。第一個實際上只是今年 CFFO 世代評論的快速跟進。我想知道在化學品領域，透過宏觀宏觀調控以及其他地方最佳或潛在業績的提升，您是否也看到了現金流量低於預期的領域在生意上？其次，本季綜合 ROCE 跌破 10%。我們應該期望（聽不清楚）多快回到 10% 水平以上。

Okay. Second one is quite easy. It's linked to the calendar of the farm downs. In fact, as I told you before, we have -- it's the farm downs when you make it on the renewables have quite an impact because, of course, not only you -- in terms of capital employed, you will not only eliminate the share of the equity but also the share of the debt. So it has a double effect.

好的。第二個很容易。它與農場的日曆相關。事實上，正如我之前告訴過你的，我們——當你對再生能源進行投資時，農場的停產會產生相當大的影響，因為，當然，不僅僅是你——就所使用的資本而言，你不僅會消除除了股權份額外，還包括債務份額。所以它有雙重效果。

And so as the farm downs are planned by the renewable business unit in the fourth quarter, you can see some, I would say, a linear impact on the nonlinear impacts along the year -- but we should reach the expectations again, [9.5, 9.6, 9.8], not a big difference. But that's for me the main explanation is more on the capital employed linked to the agenda of the farm downs. On the chemicals, I would say the chemicals, you follow probably some chemical companies. We are only on petrochemicals and polymers. The margins in Europe are low for quite a number of quarters.

因此，隨著再生能源業務部門在第四季度計劃農場停產，我想說，您可以看到對全年非線性影響的一些線性影響 - 但我們應該再次達到預期，[9.5， 9.6, 9.8] ，差別不大。但對我來說，主要的解釋更多的是與農場停頓議程相關的所使用的資本。關於化學品，我想說的是化學品，你可能會關註一些化學品公司。我們只專注於石化產品和聚合物。歐洲的利潤率在相當多的季度都處於較低水準。

The global margins are not very big because again, we face in (inaudible) in refining, more Chinese capacity, I would say, on one side. And as we had quite a number of petrochemical projects in the US, in particular, there was a wave of the same track, which was built from 2020 to 2023, and we are part of it. So quite a more supply linked to a low chip in cost, which is there. But most of these capacities in the US were, in fact, invested to export.

全球利潤率並不是很大，因為我想說，一方面，我們在煉油方面面臨（聽不清楚）更多的中國產能。而且因為我們在美國有相當多的石化項目，特別是有一波同樣的軌道，從2020年到2023年建設，我們也是其中的一部分。因此，更多的供應與較低的晶片成本相關，這是存在的。但事實上，美國的產能大部分都是為了出口而投資的。

And at the same time, we've seen that the Chinese have been very active, in fact, to, again, be more self-sufficient. And so of course -- so for me, margins are correct, globally, but not very high. And so we are not in the high cycle, I would say, in the middle, low cycle for chemicals products today. it's less critical than the refining dip. We are making some positive results, but it's not a beautiful market.

同時，我們看到中國人實際上非常積極地再次自給自足。當然，對我來說，全球範圍內的利潤率是正確的，但不是很高。因此，我想說，今天我們並不是處於化學品的高週期，而是處於中低週期。它沒有精煉下降那麼重要。我們正在取得一些正面的成果，但這不是一個美好的市場。

But it's more, I would say, chemicals is more -- we are more downstream and you have more of the global economic macro will affect them. So you can see the IMF expectation for the year decreased quarter-after-quarter, but so that impacts this type of businesses, I would say, in terms of demand. And so if demand is lower, of course, the margins are following.

但我想說的是，化學品更多——我們位於下游，全球經濟宏觀因素將更影響它們。因此，您可以看到國際貨幣基金組織對今年的預期逐季下降，但我想說，這會影響這類企業的需求。因此，如果需求下降，當然，利潤率也會跟著下降。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，豐業銀行。

Patrick, just curious that for the integrated power, can you give us some maybe better understanding the contribution in your earnings or CFFO between the gas by power portfolio and renewable power portfolio.

派崔克，我只是好奇，對於綜合電力，您能否讓我們更了解天然氣發電組合和再生能源發電組合對您的收入或 CFFO 的貢獻。

Yes. And you forget and the customer portfolio because there are three segments of revenues or contribution One is a renewable part, the gas plant and the customer plants knowing that as again, I'm repeating it's an integrated business. So I will not make the money on the customers is I don't have the assets, but I'm making also additional revenue on the customer because I'm able to make this commercial business. I would say it's roughly [3/3] between the three parts: a third around renewables, a third about the gas plants and a third by the customers. So just to give you a rule of thumb in the way the CFFO is split today.

是的。你忘記了客戶組合，因為收入或貢獻分為三個部分，一個是可再生部分，天然氣工廠和客戶工廠知道，我再次重申，這是一項綜合業務。因此，由於我沒有資產，我不會從客戶身上賺錢，但我也會為客戶帶來額外的收入，因為我能夠開展這項商業業務。我想說這三個部分之間大約是[3/3]：三分之一與再生能源有關，三分之一與天然氣發電廠有關，三分之一與客戶有關。今天就 CFFO 的劃分方式向您提供一條經驗法則。

Great. And Patrick, can you give us an update on where we are on the Papa Guinea LNG projects?

偉大的。派崔克，您能為我們介紹一下巴幾內亞液化天然氣計畫的最新進展嗎？

Well, LNG, we have been very transparent and the market, we said that we interrupted the whole tender process because the CapEx was too hard. We stopped. And we have, together with our partners, we have taken some review. We have reviewed some, I would say, of the basis of design in order to streamline the projects. And we have also bid to a larger pool of contractors, in particular, some Asian contractors.

嗯，液化天然氣，我們一直非常透明，市場，我們說我們中斷了整個招標過程，因為資本支出太難了。我們停了下來。我們與合作夥伴一起進行了一些審查。我想說，我們已經審查了一些設計基礎，以簡化專案。我們也向更多的承包商投標，特別是一些亞洲承包商。

And according to my information, we have the retendering has begun. That means we have launch now the process to all these different contractors on the new on the new scheme, which, again, most of the scheme has been maintained, but we were some optimizations together with the partner in order to simplify and to low cheap to make cheaper for cheaper concepts. And we expect all that will be a process, which is a little longer. So I'm expecting, I think the offers by next summer 2025. I think it's because it's a big process.

根據我的信息，我們已經開始重新招標。這意味著我們現在已經在新方案上向所有這些不同的承包商啟動了該流程，同樣，大部分方案已得到維護，但我們與合作夥伴一起進行了一些優化，以簡化並降低成本讓更便宜的概念變得更便宜。我們預計這一切都將是一個過程，這個過程會更長一些。所以我預計，我認為會在 2025 年明年夏天之前收到報價。

And again, we have reengaged -- but the good news I can tell you is that there was quite a lot of appetite from contractors from the Asian world. So maybe the western contractors were not so keen. But on that side of the continent and either in India or in China, we can find some contractors. We had an appetite and which we are quite happy to be invited to contribute. And we have, of course, made all the qualification processes and the teams are working very closely with them in order to have some good and competitive offers. So it's on its way.

我們再次重新接觸，但我可以告訴你的好消息是，來自亞洲世界的承包商有很大的興趣。所以也許西方承包商就沒那麼熱衷。但在非洲大陸的另一邊，無論是在印度還是在中國，我們都可以找到一些承包商。我們很有胃口，很高興被邀請做出貢獻。當然，我們已經制定了所有資格流程，團隊正在與他們密切合作，以獲得一些良好且有競爭力的報價。所以它正在路上。

And Patrick, you go according to plan when the first gas is going to be?

派崔克，你按計畫什麼時候第一批氣體會出現？

I think it was written in our CMD booklet. So I don't have that in mind. It's 2028. No, I'm not sure. It was written in the slide on the book. So I don't know everything by half. Maybe my team can help me on this one. yes, so I will try to find it one minute. 2028.

我想它是寫在我們的 CMD 小冊子裡的。所以我沒有這個想法。現在是 2028 年。這是寫在書的幻燈片上的。所以我對一切都不是一知半解。也許我的團隊可以在這方面幫助我。是的，所以我會嘗試花一分鐘找到它。 2028。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

亨利·塔爾，貝倫貝格。

I just have one left really. And that's just on the bio business, which I think you've referred to a couple of times Europe is clearly incentivizing biofuel use. But there has been a lot of capacity that's been added. And if we see a lot more sort of brownfield conversions as well. Are you confident that there's going to be sufficient demand in Europe and the US to sort of soak up the available supply over the next two to three years. Clearly, we're in a little bit of a period of weak margins currently?

我真的只剩下一張了這只是關於生物業務，我想你已經多次提到歐洲明顯鼓勵生物燃料的使用。但增加了很多容量。如果我們也看到更多類型的棕地改造。您是否有信心歐洲和美國將有足夠的需求來吸收未來兩到三年的可用供應？顯然，我們目前正處於利潤率較低的時期？

I mean this is exactly why I was answering to one of your colleagues previously. But when we speak about this type of transformation, we need to appreciate also the demand and supply. This market in Europe is completely regulated. It's coming from regulation. So why do we have today a lower margins?

我的意思是，這正是我之前回答你的一位同事的原因。但當我們談論這種類型的轉變時，我們也需要了解需求和供給。歐洲的這個市場是完全受監管的。它來自監管。那為什麼我們今天的利潤率較低呢？

It's because two countries in the north of Europe, Sweden and Finland which we are planning to have a mandate for biodiesel, which was above the minimum of Europe. So it was announced. It was planned quite sublet it was 30% instead of 10%. So some competitors have built some plants for producing HVO renewable diesel. And unfortunately, new government came in and they modified the mandate to come back to the, I would say, standard by European mandate around 10%.

這是因為我們計劃對歐洲北部的兩個國家瑞典和芬蘭強制要求使用生質柴油，而這兩個國家的生物柴油含量高於歐洲的最低標準。於是就宣布了。計劃將其轉租為 30%，而不是 10%。因此一些競爭對手建造了一些工廠來生產 HVO 再生柴油。不幸的是，新政府上台後，他們修改了指令，使其回到歐洲指令 10% 左右的標準。

So that created an oversupply, and then the no margins have decreased. So that's the difficulty in that felt -- that's why when I was ensuring, of course, we are following that carefully because -- it's not -- it's a niche, but the niche could be full quickly. And I love the game of the airline companies who are pushing us up to produce more. In fact, they want us to have another supplier that as the price to go down. It's quite easy.

這就造成了供應過剩，然後利潤率就下降了。這就是那種感覺的困難——這就是為什麼當我確保時，當然，我們正在仔細遵循這一點，因為——它不是——這是一個利基市場，但這個利基市場可能很快就會被填滿。我喜歡航空公司的遊戲，他們推動我們生產更多產品。事實上，他們希望我們有另一個供應商，因為價格會下降。這很容易。

They are complaining there is not enough stuff. And today, maybe we have intention, but we might be on the other side. So we are evaluating all that because, of course, it makes little sense to invest and then to have enter into another supply market. So we are evaluating that. And we are obliged now and I think the lesson we draw is let's be cautious.

他們抱怨沒有足夠的東西。今天，也許我們有意圖，但我們可能站在另一邊。所以我們正在評估這一切，因為當然，投資然後進入另一個供應市場沒有什麼意義。所以我們正在評估這一點。現在我們有義務，我認為我們學到的教訓是讓我們保持謹慎。

All these guys are announcing higher mandates, voluntary mandates I'm only first thing the minimum legal standard mandates. This one are strong because I don't think they will modify them. But all these voluntary mandates and more questionable because again, it's a question of competitiveness for our customers. So this is exactly the process where we are to evaluate properly I would say, supply and demand in Europe, like you have to do it in the US.

所有這些人都在宣布更高的要求，自願的要求，我只是第一件事是最低的法律標準要求。這個很強大，因為我認為他們不會修改它們。但所有這些自願強制要求都更值得懷疑，因為這又是我們客戶的競爭力問題。因此，這正是我們要正確評估歐洲供需的過程，就像在美國必須做的那樣。

In the US, it's not exactly the same market because all the buyers from the US cannot move to Europe because, I would say, the content and the regulations, so that what we call the biofuel in [South] in Europe, but in the US is not exactly the same. So that's more protection from this prospect. But that's part of the work on which we need to be serious before too. There is also, as we told you in New York and other things to take into consideration is that there is some new aviation regulation, which allowed to you make some coprocessing in some existing refineries.

在美國，這不是完全相同的市場，因為所有來自美國的買家都無法轉移到歐洲，因為我想說的是，內容和法規，所以我們在歐洲[南部]所謂的生物燃料，但在歐洲美國不完全一樣。所以這是對這種前景的更多保護。但這也是我們之前需要認真對待的工作的一部分。正如我們在紐約告訴您的那樣，還有一些需要考慮的事情是，有一些新的航空法規，允許您在一些現有的煉油廠進行一些協同處理。

So obviously, we have to evaluate. It's an opportunity for us first or refiner to drive better value for more existing assets. but we need to evaluate properly how much of this core processing would be used by the global industry in Europe because it will be a competitor to a refill our brownfield projects. So we need to -- that's also part of the equation. But we have to take into account.

顯然，我們必須進行評估。對於我們首先或煉油廠來說，這是一個為更多現有資產帶來更好價值的機會。但我們需要正確評估歐洲全球工業將使用多少核心加工，因為它將成為我們棕地專案的競爭對手。所以我們需要──這也是等式的一部分。但我們必須考慮到。

Jason Gabelman, PD Cowen.

賈森·加貝爾曼，PD 考恩。

It's Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. I had two questions. The first on Russia. And if we're in a situation where the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, I'm wondering how much cash is out there that you haven't been able to recover between Yamal and Novatek dividends, that you'll be able to recoup.

我是 TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於俄羅斯的。如果我們處於俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突結束的情況下，我想知道在亞馬爾和諾瓦泰克股息之間有多少現金你無法收回，你將能夠收回。

I mean, first, I hope you are right in your assumption. The word will end not only for TotalEnergies, but more for the (inaudible) continent. And by the way, I think it will be important for the global economic moves in the continent, if there was this (inaudible) ws ending. So (inaudible) on it. No, it's quite easy.

我的意思是，首先，我希望你的假設是正確的。這個字不僅適用於TotalEnergies，也適用於整個（聽不清楚）大陸。順便說一句，我認為如果有這樣的（聽不清楚）結局，這對於非洲大陸的全球經濟走勢將非常重要。所以（聽不清楚）就可以了。不，這很容易。

The dividends of Novatek were representing around $600 million per year. So most of them are stuck in -- on the Novatek accounts, not on the C accounts because (inaudible) Novatek has kept this dividend on account for us, in fact. So this represents around $1 billion more or less, I would say. And then you have part of the [Yamal] dividends as well, which was at the beginning we managed to get them, and we are transparent. We were, by the way, publishing it.

Novatek 每年的股利約為 6 億美元。因此，他們中的大多數都被困在 Novatek 帳戶上，而不是 C 帳戶上，因為（聽不清楚）Novatek 事實上已將這筆股息記入我們的帳戶。所以我想說，這意味著大約 10 億美元左右。然後你還有一部分[亞馬爾]股息，這是我們一開始就設法獲得的，而且我們是透明的。順便說一句，我們正在出版它。

Today, there is no publication because there is little or nothing, no dividends. So that means that you have probably another I don't know when it will end. So probably by the end of the year will be $1.5 billion to $2 billion of cash dividends, which are somewhere on our accounts. just to give you a magnitude of it. And of course, it's not for the point.

今天，沒有出版物，因為很少或根本沒有，沒有紅利。所以這意味著你可能還有另一個我不知道什麼時候結束的事情。因此，到今年年底，我們的帳戶上可能會有 15 億至 20 億美元的現金股利。只是為了告訴你它的大小。當然，這不是重點。

Yes. That's helpful. And then just going back or turning to CapEx. And it looks like if you continue the pace of organic spending from 3Q that you'll reach the high end of guidance for the full year. And I know there's some inorganic acquisitions out there, [sopera] Super OMV that hasn't closed yet.

是的。這很有幫助。然後返回或轉向資本支出。看起來，如果你繼續保持第三季的有機支出步伐，你將達到全年指導的上限。我知道還有一些無機收購，[sopera] Super OMV 尚未完成。

So just wondering as we are a month into the fourth quarter, how comfortable you are with the current CapEx guidance? And if some of these acquisitions close on this side of the calendar year, if you'll potentially reach the high end of the range?

因此，我想知道第四季度已經過去一個月了，您對當前的資本支出指導有多滿意？如果其中一些收購在今年下半年完成，您是否有可能達到該範圍的高端？

No, we will not bridge, okay? We told you we confirm [$17 billion, $18 billion], so we confirm it. In fact, just to transparent with you, the organic CapEx by the end of September were around $12.5 billion. So if I'm adding another [3 to 4], you will go to [16.5] There might be more M&A, more acquisitions by divestments. So I'm fine.

不，我們不會搭橋，好嗎？我們告訴過你我們確認[170億美元，180億美元]，所以我們確認了。事實上，恕我直言，截至 9 月底的有機資本支出約為 125 億美元。因此，如果我再增加一個 [3 到 4]，您將轉到 [16.5] 可能會有更多併購，更多透過撤資進行的收購。所以我很好。

I think, again, we are today in terms of global net CapEx at [$14 billion] by the end of this September. That means we confirm the guidance of [$17 billion, $18 billion]. So you make the difference between [$17 billion, $18 billion and $14 billion], it makes $3 billion to $4 billion of CapEx, which is quite consistent with what we just said and it includes -- to be clear, I included that the possibility that we closed this when the acquisition in Malaysia, we'll see. I mean it's a process which is not fully under control, but this is where we are. So I think 12% organic, you can calculate, we are not at the high end of this $18 billion we mentioned for year next year. We are far from it from this year in terms of organic, will be probably around [$16 billion]. Okay. Yes, we'll have some comments. So thank you for your attendance. Okay.

我再次認為，截至今年 9 月底，我們的全球淨資本支出已達到 [140 億美元]。這意味著我們確認了 [170 億美元、180 億美元] 的指導。因此，你算出[170 億美元、180 億美元和140 億美元] 之間的差額，它就會產生30 億到40 億美元的資本支出，這與我們剛才所說的非常一致，它包括——需要明確的是，我包括了這種可能性當我們在馬來西亞收購時，我們會完成這個交易，我們拭目以待。我的意思是，這是一個無法完全控制的過程，但這就是我們現在的情況。所以我認為 12% 的有機率，你可以計算一下，我們還沒有達到我們提到的明年 180 億美元的高端。就有機而言，我們距離今年還很遠，可能約為 [160 億美元]。好的。是的，我們會提出一些意見。感謝您的出席。好的。

Again, I think the quarter, of course, is lower than the previous one. It's clear because we have been I would say it is as refining margin. That's part of the integrated value chain. At the end, we are comfortable with the fact that we are on the right track to deliver the global year will be in line with our expectations. We have confirmed with the Board return to shareholders and a strong return to shareholders' guidance.

再次，我認為本季當然低於上一季。很明顯，因為我們一直在我認為這是精煉利潤。這是綜合價值鏈的一部分。最後，我們對這樣一個事實感到滿意：我們正走在正確的軌道上，今年的全球業績將符合我們的預期。我們已向董事會確認對股東的回報以及對股東指導的強烈回報。

Keep in mind that the year '25 will also be positive. We told you in New York that we'll enter into a growth cycle, including on the hydrocarbon production, more than 3%. And I can confirm you. We had a very good news yesterday afternoon, [Mero 3] has started up. So the ramp will begin.

請記住，25 年也將是積極的。我們在紐約告訴你們，我們將進入一個成長週期，包括碳氫化合物產量超過 3%。我可以向你確認。昨天下午我們收到了一個好消息，【Mero 3】已經啟動了。所以坡道將開始。

We had [Mero 2], which is going to its maximum. And so I can confirm to you that 25% will have a production mobile growth by more than 3%. And so that also will help, of course, the resilience of the model -- and so thank you again for your support and for having listened to us, and I hope we will have to meet you again in coming weeks.

我們有[Mero 2]，它將達到最大。因此，我可以向您確認，25% 的生產行動裝置成長將超過 3%。當然，這也將有助於模型的恢復力——再次感謝您的支持和傾聽我們的意見，我希望我們在未來幾週內再次見到您。

You may disconnect your telephones.

您可以斷開電話。