TotalEnergies SE (TTE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

It's 09:30. Good morning. Welcome to TotalEnergies 2023 Results and 2024 Objectives Presentation. We are today in London from the Tate Modern art museum. Thanks for coming today, and I hope that you will enjoy the view on the city and (inaudible). You can also follow us live on our website, totalenergies.com.

現在是 09:30。早安.歡迎來到 TotalEnergies 2023 年業績和 2024 年目標演示。我們今天從泰特現代美術館來到倫敦。感謝您今天光臨，希望您能欣賞這座城市的景色（聽不清楚）。您也可以在我們的網站totalenergies.com 上即時關注我們。

We will start today with a safety sequence with Bernard Pinatel, who is our President Refining & Chemicals and then we will have the presentation from Jean-Pierre and Patrick for around 1 hour. And then we'll move to the Q&A session, we should be finished around 11:30, 11:45. (Operator Instructions).

今天，我們將從我們的煉油與化學品總裁 Bernard Pinatel 的安全序列開始，然後我們將聽取 Jean-Pierre 和 Patrick 的大約 1 小時的演講。然後我們將進入問答環節，我們應該在 11:30、11:45 左右結束。 （操作員說明）。

But without further delay, I invite Bernard to come on stage to launch the meeting with the safety sequence. Bernard?

但我不再拖延，邀請伯納德上台以安全順序啟動會議。伯納德？

Thank you, Renaud. Good morning. Last year, I had to deploy 2 fatalities, as you know, and these 2 tragic events remind us that our first duty, of course, is to make sure that everyone returns home safe every day. One fatality occurred in France in a retail station, where a contractor passed away when performing some acceleration work.

謝謝你，雷諾。早安.如你所知，去年，我必須部署兩人死亡，這兩起悲劇提醒我們，我們的首要職責當然是確保每個人每天都安全回家。法國一家零售站發生了一起死亡事件，一名承包商在執行加速工作時死亡。

The safety moment I've chosen this morning is about the second fatality, the one which occurred in the Zeeland Refinery in the Netherlands, of course, not to describe -- just to describe what happened but most importantly, to share with you what we learned from this tragic event to improve our operations.

今天早上我選擇的安全時刻是關於第二起死亡事故，發生在荷蘭澤蘭煉油廠的那起事故，當然，不是為了描述——只是為了描述發生的事情，但最重要的是，與你們分享我們所發生的事情。從這次悲慘事件中吸取教訓，以改善我們的營運。

On February 1, a contractor passed away while he was performing a catalyst unloading operation inside the reactor. His name was Torsten. He was 50 years old. Changing a catalyst is a very sensitive operation as the catalyst is flammable in the presence of oxygen of air. So you must first inert the reactive with nitrogen before the intervention. The catalyst and loading operation is performed, as you see on the slide, by a team of 3 people led by a supervisor.

2月1日，一名承包商在反應爐內進行催化劑卸載作業時去世。他的名字叫托斯頓。他50歲了。更換催化劑是一項非常敏感的操作，因為催化劑在空氣中的氧氣存在下易燃。因此，在幹預之前，您必須先用氮氣惰性化反應物。正如您在幻燈片上看到的，催化劑和裝載操作是由主管領導的 3 人團隊執行的。

First, there is a diver who is the one entering into the reactor, fully equipped, of course, including with a lifeline to be pulled out in case of emergency. The second one is the second diver who is ready to dive in case of emergency, and there is also a controller who monitors the level of nitrogen of air and keeps constant contact by radio and by video. And before entering into reactor, of course, there is a video inspection to make sure that the situation is safe.

首先，有一名潛水員進入反應堆，裝備齊全，當然包括緊急情況下可以拉出的救生索。第二名是第二名潛水員，在緊急情況下準備潛水，還有一名控制器，負責監控空氣中的氮氣含量，並透過無線電和視訊保持持續聯繫。當然，在進入反應爐之前，也要進行視訊檢查，以確保情況安全。

At 11:15 on that day, the alarm was given by the personnel, and we learned that the diver was trapped by the collapse of some catalysts. Of course, the rescue team reinforced by additional members fully equipped tried in turn to pull him out of the reactor, which you may guess from the slide is 30-meter high. When the body went out, the team found that the diver passed away.

當日11時15分，工作人員發出警報，得知潛水員因部分催化劑崩塌而受困。當然，由裝備齊全的額外人員增援的救援隊依序試圖將他從反應爐中拉出，從滑梯上你可能會猜到反應爐有30公尺高。當屍體被救出時，團隊發現潛水員已經死亡。

One thing is clear, we couldn't keep operating this way with a human entry into an inert atmosphere, even if it is the industry standard practice. So immediately took 3 actions. Of course, we immediately stopped worldwide, all similar operations in the company. Secondly, with our contractors, HSE specialists, technical experts, we reviewed alternative operating modes to avoid any entry -- human entry inside reactors for that kind of operation.

有一點很清楚，我們不能繼續以這種方式讓人類進入惰性氣氛，即使這是業界標準做法。於是立即採取了3項行動。當然，我們立即停止了全球範圍內公司的所有類似業務。其次，我們與承包商、HSE 專家、技術專家一起審查了替代操作模式，以避免任何進入——人員進入反應器進行此類操作。

And eventually, we identified and selected an alternative operating mode where you change the catalyst by water flooding. What does that mean? It means that you fill the reactor with water and then you empty it together with the catalyst. Of course, this is more costly because you cannot recover the catalyst to recycle it. And you have to dispose of the wastewater, but you will understand this is not really what is at stake.

最終，我們確定並選擇了一種替代操作模式，透過注水更換催化劑。這意味著什麼？這意味著您將反應器充滿水，然後將其與催化劑一起清除。當然，這成本更高，因為你無法回收催化劑來循環。你必須處理廢水，但你會明白這不是真正的問題。

From February 2023, all replacements were performed without any entry. We carried out 21 replacement using water in 2023, and we will have another 14 in the first half of 2024. We also keep working on further improvements in terms of vessel modification because you will understand that this vessel has now to support the additional weight of water. And of course, we are looking at the utilization of robots. And naturally, we have shared these new operating modes with our peers.

自2023年2月起，所有更換均在無任何條目的情況下進行。我們在 2023 年進行了 21 次用水更換，2024 年上半年我們將進行另外 14 次。我們還繼續致力於船舶改裝方面的進一步改進，因為您會明白，這艘船現在必須支撐額外的重量水。當然，我們正在研究機器人的利用。當然，我們也與同業分享了這些新的營運模式。

So let me now switch to -- after the safety moment to the overall company safety performance. At TotalEnergies, we keep repeating this message, safety is more than a priority. It's a value. It's a core value. Of course, safety is a matter of culture. It's a matter of leadership. It's also a matter of permanent improvement. And to track it, we measure several leading indicators that you see on the slide in terms of occupational safety and in terms of prevention of technological risks.

現在讓我在安全時刻之後轉向公司的整體安全績效。在 TotalEnergies，我們不斷重複這項訊息：安全不僅僅是重中之重。這是一個價值。這是一個核心價值。當然，安全是文化問題。這是領導力的問題。這也是一個永久改進的問題。為了追蹤它，我們測量了幻燈片上您在職業安全和技術風險預防方面看到的幾個領先指標。

So on the left-hand side, in terms of occupational safety, you see that we track the total recordable injury rate and that -- this rate at 0.63 has been reduced over the last 5 years consistently, and that represents a reduction of close to 30%. Having an injury rate well below 1 is not a given, believe me, notably, when you see the industry trend since 2020.

因此，在左側，就職業安全而言，您會看到我們追蹤總的可記錄傷害率，並且該比率在過去 5 年中一直在下降，為 0.63，這意味著減少了接近30%。相信我，傷害率遠低於 1 並不是必然的，尤其是當你看到 2020 年以來的行業趨勢時。

So we have been able to consolidate our position as a front runner on this indicator in our industry. How did we do it? Some key initiatives, I would like to highlight one, which is our ability to engage our contractors with our teams to promote shared safety values. We have done it notably through what we called a program of joint safety tools between TotalEnergies management and contractor partners. These 2 are coming, of course, in addition to the daily visits we do with our local team on the field.

因此，我們已經能夠鞏固我們作為行業中該指標領先者的地位。我們是怎麼做的？我想強調一些關鍵舉措，其中之一是我們有能力讓承包商與我們的團隊合作，以促進共同的安全價值。我們特別透過 TotalEnergies 管理層和承包商合作夥伴之間的聯合安全工具計劃做到了這一點。當然，除了我們與當地團隊在現場進行的日常訪問之外，這兩個人也會來。

In 2023, we recorded 10,000 of such joint safety tools across the company. Regarding the prevention of major accident and accident pollution on the right-hand side, we are also progressing. Over the last 5 years, we have reduced the number of primary losses of containment you see on that side by 50%. And here again, we have been focusing on 2 main areas.

2023 年，我們在全公司記錄了 10,000 個此類聯合安全工具。關於右側重大事故和事故污染的預防，我們也正在取得進展。在過去 5 年裡，我們已將您在該側看到的主要遏制損失數量減少了 50%。在這裡，我們再次關注兩個主要領域。

Of course, first, this is the management of the technical integrity through our maintenance inspection program but also through the implementation of digital tools to anticipate and prevent potential equipment failures. The second area of focus has been the implementation of what we call the safe operating principles, or SOPs, where we constantly train our operators on the basic rules to comply with when they perform very standard operations.

當然，首先，這是透過我們的維護檢查計劃對技術完整性進行管理，同時也透過實施數位工具來預測和防止潛在的設備故障。第二個重點領域是實施我們所謂的安全操作原則（SOP），我們不斷地對操作員進行培訓，讓他們了解在執行非常標準的操作時要遵守的基本規則。

So of course, to conclude, I just would like to say that we all know that safety is a daily battle but that we are all committed to do our best to protect our people, the environment and our assets.

當然，最後，我只想說，我們都知道安全是一場日常戰鬥，但我們都致力於盡最大努力保護我們的人民、環境和資產。

And now I hand over to Jean-Pierre.

現在我把時間交給讓皮耶。

Thank you, Bernard. So good morning, everyone. This year is a special year for TotalEnergies because TotalEnergies is celebrating in 2024 its 100 years birthday. So the company was founded so 100 years ago in Iraq at that time, the name was Compagnie française des pétrole. And since that time, all the time, the company has diversified, has adapted itself to deal with the environment, to deal with the society, to deal with the market.

謝謝你，伯納德。大家早安。今年對 TotalEnergies 來說是特別的一年，因為 TotalEnergies 將在 2024 年慶祝 100 歲生日。因此，該公司於 100 年前在伊拉克成立，當時的名稱是 Compagnie française des pétrole。從那時起，公司一直在多元化，不斷適應環境、社會、市場。

And it's, I think, with the same pioneer spirit that we use at the time in Iraq in oil exploration that we will build the energy system of the future. Indeed, over the last couple of years, we have engaged in balanced energy transition strategy, as you know, incurred on 2 pillars. So oil and gas on one side and mainly LNG, as you know, and on the other side, integrated power.

我認為，我們將憑藉我們在伊拉克石油勘探中所採用的同樣的開拓精神來建立未來的能源系統。事實上，在過去的幾年裡，我們實施了平衡的能源轉型策略，如您所知，有兩個支柱。如您所知，一方面是石油和天然氣，主要是液化天然氣，另一方面是綜合電力。

On the oil one side business, TotalEnergies plans to responsibly grow its oil and gas production by 2% to 3% per year predominantly from LNG, thanks to its rich low-cost, low-emission portfolio. In the LNG business, we will leverage our top 3 global LNG integrated portfolio with leading position in regas in Europe, in U.S. exports to develop a top-tier LNG pipeline. And Patrick will come back on that later.

在石油方面，由於其豐富的低成本、低排放產品組合，TotalEnergies 計劃以負責任的方式將其石油和天然氣產量每年增長 2% 至 3%，其中主要來自液化天然氣。在液化天然氣業務方面，我們將利用我們在歐洲再氣化、美國出口方面領先的全球前三名的液化天然氣綜合產品組合，開發一流的液化天然氣管道。帕特里克稍後會回來討論這一點。

In integrated power business, the company is building a world-class cost competitive portfolio, combining renewable, so solar, offshore wind -- offshore winds with flexible assets, CCGT and storage to deliver clean firm power to our customers. And as you know, with the objective to be positive net cash flow by 2028 with ROACE at 12%.

在綜合電力業務中，該公司正在建立世界一流的成本競爭產品組合，將再生能源、太陽能、離岸風電——離岸風電與靈活的資產、CCGT和儲存相結合，為我們的客戶提供清潔的穩定電力。如您所知，目標是到 2028 年實現正淨現金流，ROACE 為 12%。

So let's move now to the figures. So this consistent 2-pillar strategy has delivered, I think, strong results in 2023. In a robust environment, but softer price environment compared to the environment we benefited in 2022, we delivered, as you see here, a net -- adjusted net income TotalEnergies share above $23 billion and an IFRS net income above $21 billion. In terms of profitability, we had ROACE, return on capital employed, at 19% in 2023 and a return on equity, 20%. So that means that once again, TotalEnergies in 2023 was the most profitable major.

現在讓我們轉向數字。因此，我認為，這種一致的兩大支柱策略在2023 年取得了強勁的成果。在一個強勁的環境中，但與我們在2022 年受益的環境相比，價格環境更為疲軟，正如您在這裡看到的，我們實現了淨調整後的淨值TotalEnergies 的收入超過 230 億美元，IFRS 淨利潤超過 210 億美元。就獲利能力而言，2023 年我們的 ROACE（已動用資本回報率）為 19%，股本回報率為 20%。因此，這意味著 TotalEnergies 再次成為 2023 年最賺錢的專業公司。

In terms of cash flow. In 2023, we managed to deliver cash flow at $36 million with a strong contribution of all the different business segments. So E&P contributed to more than $18 billion, $18.5 billion. Integrated power, 7.3 -- Integrated Energy -- sorry, $7.3 billion, Integrated power above $2 billion, $2.2 billion. I will come back on that later. And downstream, at $8.2 billion. On top of that, we benefited last year for a strong working cap release. So cash in coming from our working cap around $5 billion, but to be very transparent with you, some of this capital -- working cap variation came includes $2 billion of exceptional fiscal debt variation that will disappeared in 2024.

從現金流來看。 2023 年，在所有不同業務部門的大力貢獻下，我們成功實現了 3,600 萬美元的現金流。所以E&P貢獻了超過180億美元、185億美元。綜合電力，7.3－綜合能源－抱歉，73億美元，綜合電力超過20億美元，22億美元。我稍後會回來討論這一點。下游為 82 億美元。最重要的是，我們去年因工作上限的強勁釋放而受益。因此，我們的營運上限帶來的現金約為 50 億美元，但要對您非常透明，其中一些資本——營運上限變化包括 20 億美元的特殊財政債務變化，這些變化將在 2024 年消失。

So how this cash has been used. So this $36 billion plus this $5 billion of working cap has been used. So $16.8 billion has been devoted to capital investment. I will comment later on this figure. $16.5 billion has been contributed to our shareholder return with cash flow distribution, so payout above 40%. Indeed, payout increased from 37% in 2022 to 46% in 2023 and it consisted in a 7.1% increase in the ordinary dividend that we paid in 2023 plus $9 billion buyback. Out of this $9 billion, I remind you that $1.5 billion are directly linked to the Canadian disposal assets. And the remaining parts of the cash flow we generated last year contributed to continue to deleverage the company. We now net debt at $6 billion and leading to gearing end of last year at 5%.

那麼這筆錢是怎麼用的呢？所以這 360 億美元加上這 50 億美元的工作上限已經被使用了。因此，168 億美元已投入資本投資。我稍後會評論這個數字。 165億美元透過現金流分配為我們的股東回報貢獻了40%以上。事實上，派息從 2022 年的 37% 增加到 2023 年的 46%，其中包括我們在 2023 年支付的普通股息增加 7.1%，加上 90 億美元的回購。在這 90 億美元中，我提醒您，有 15 億美元與加拿大處置資產直接相關。我們去年產生的現金流的剩餘部分為公司繼續去槓桿做出了貢獻。目前，我們的淨債務為 60 億美元，去年年底的負債比率為 5%。

So now the scorecard for 2023. I think it's clear that we delivered on our objectives. So for upstream production, the production increased, excluding Novatek by 2% to 2.48 million barrels of oil equivalent with a strong contribution in terms of energy production that grew by 9%, in line with the objective we had on that topic.

現在是 2023 年的記分卡。我認為很明顯我們實現了我們的目標。因此，就上游生產而言，不包括諾瓦泰克的產量增加了 2%，達到 248 萬桶油當量，對能源產量增加了 9% 做出了巨大貢獻，這符合我們在該主題上的目標。

Refining has a slightly better-than-expected utilization rates at more than 80%. So we guided 80%. And so the final figure was 81%. In terms of renewable gross installed capacity, so this capacity grew by almost 6 gigawatts between '22 and '23 at more than 22 gigawatts at the end of the year, leading and contributing to produce more electricity. So it's an increase compared to last year by more than 80% at 19 terawatt hour, broadly in line with the objective we had.

煉油利用率略優於預期，超過80%。所以我們指導了80%。所以最終的數字是81%。就再生能源總裝置容量而言，22 年至 23 年期間這一容量增長了近 6 吉瓦，年底超過 22 吉瓦，領先並有助於生產更多電力。因此，與去年相比增加了 80% 以上，達到 19 太瓦時，大致符合我們的目標。

So now on the emission side front. We reduced Scope 1 and 2 from operated facilities to 34.6 million tonnes last year with 2 main drivers. So first, we continue to be successful in our efforts in oil and gas businesses to reduce gas flaring, I give you the example that in Nigeria, for example, we completely stopped gas flaring at the end of 202 and we are successful in developing energy efficiency projects. On top of that, in 2023 -- 2023 was a more normal year in terms of CCGT utilization rates in 2022 for obvious reasons. We had a very strong utilization rate for CCGT. And so 2023, it's back to normal. And this contributes, of course, to lower the Scope 1 and 2, '22 versus '23.

現在在發射方面。去年，我們將範圍 1 和範圍 2 營運設施的產量減少至 3,460 萬噸，有 2 個主要驅動因素。首先，我們在石油和天然氣業務方面繼續成功減少天然氣燃燒，我舉個例子，例如在尼日利亞，我們在202年底完全停止了天然氣燃燒，我們在能源開發方面取得了成功增效項目。最重要的是，就 2022 年 CCGT 利用率而言，2023 年是較正常的一年，原因顯而易見。我們的 CCGT 利用率非常高。到了 2023 年，一切又恢復正常了。當然，這有助於降低範圍 1 和範圍 2，即 '22 與 '23。

Methane from operated facilities were reduced by 47% compared to 2022, surpassing our reduction targets. And another very important key factor, which translates into figure our transition strategy is the life cycle carbon intensity with a reduction compared to 2015 by 13%, with a target we posted at 12%. So more energy, less emission, but also growing cash flow. We exceeded our CFFO guidance by more than -- by about $1 billion. The guidance restated using the same price deck as for 2023 was at $35 billion and so the final figure, as I already mentioned, is at $36 billion. In terms of investments, we invested $16.8 billion last year within the guidance, and I will come back on that later. And CFFO payouts, already commented, above 40% at 46%.

與 2022 年相比，營運設施的甲烷排放量減少了 47%，超過了我們的減排目標。另一個非常重要的關鍵因素，轉化為我們的轉型策略的數字，是生命週期碳強度，與 2015 年相比降低了 13%，我們設定的目標是 12%。因此，更多的能源，更少的排放，而且現金流也不斷成長。我們超出了 CFFO 的指導方針，超出了約 10 億美元。使用與 2023 年相同的價格框架重申的指導值為 350 億美元，因此正如我已經提到的，最終數字為 360 億美元。在投資方面，我們去年在指導範圍內投資了168億美元，我稍後會再談這個。已經評論過的 CFFO 支出超過 40%，達到 46%。

CapEx. So we remain disciplined in our CapEx, in our investments with a total of $16.8 billion in '23. We were very active in '23 on the M&A side with a very active portfolio management, allowing to continue to enhance to upgrade our portfolio. Because in this figure, $16.8 billion, of course, you have -- it's a net between organic CapEx, around $18 billion plus acquisition, so $6.4 billion of acquisition and $7.7 billion of divestments.

資本支出。因此，我們在資本支出和投資方面保持嚴格，2023 年投資總額為 168 億美元。 23 年，我們在併購方面非常活躍，並進行了非常積極的投資組合管理，從而能夠繼續增強和升級我們的投資組合。因為在這個數字中，當然有 168 億美元——這是有機資本支出（約 180 億美元加上收購）之間的淨額，即 64 億美元的收購和 77 億美元的撤資。

So this figure, this $6.4 billion acquisition. So on the oil and gas side, we have our entry for a 20% interest in SARB Umm Lulu fields in Abu Dhabi. We have, on the LNG side, our effective entry in NFS in Qatar and in Rio Grande project in Texas for LNG. On the integrated power side, it's the acquisition of the remaining 70% stake in Total Eren as well our 34% stake in a joint venture with Casa dos Ventos renewable developer in Brazil. And as you know, the main divestments are our exit or disposal of our Canadian assets with sales to Suncor and sales to Conoco and the sale of our retail network in Germany to Alimentation Couche-Tard. So very strong portfolio management last year with strong figures.

所以這個數字，就是這筆 64 億美元的收購。因此，在石油和天然氣方面，我們獲得了阿布達比 SARB Umm Lulu 油田 20% 的權益。在液化天然氣方面，我們已有效進入卡達的 NFS 和德州的里奧格蘭德液化天然氣計畫。在綜合電力方面，我們收購了Total Eren剩餘的70%股權，以及我們與巴西再生能源開發商Casa dos Ventos合資企業的34%股權。如您所知，主要的撤資是我們退出或處置我們的加拿大資產，將其出售給 Suncor 和 Conoco，以及將我們在德國的零售網絡出售給 Alimentation Couche-Tard。去年的投資組合管理非常強大，數據也很強勁。

In 2023, in line with our balanced energy transition strategy, I remind you previously, we invested more or less the same amount of money in low-carbon molecules, so mainly integrated power compared to what we did in oil. So it's the red part of the pie compared to the green part of the pie.

2023年，根據我們平衡的能源轉型策略，我之前提醒大家，我們在低碳分子方面投入了或多或少相同數量的資金，因此與我們在石油方面的投資相比，主要是綜合電力。所以它是餅圖的紅色部分與餅圖的綠色部分相比。

Another way we can look at it is that we invested as much in integrated and low carbon molecules as we did in new projects in oil or in gas new projects. For integrated power, the figure was 8 -- was $5 billion in '23. Progressing, in particular, in implementing our strategy in the regulated markets, particularly in the U.S. and in Europe.

我們可以從另一個角度看待這個問題，即我們對整合和低碳分子的投資與對石油或天然氣新項目的投資一樣多。對於綜合電力來說，這個數字是 8——23 年是 50 億美元。特別是在受監管市場（特別是美國和歐洲）實施我們的策略方面取得了進展。

So now moving to the highlights of '23 on our 2 pillars. All segments had big achievement and strong performance last year, in line with our strategy and objectives. In Upstream and gas, our production reached 2.48 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, benefiting from a startup in January of the blockchain in Oman, of Absheron in Azerbaijan in July as well, as I already mentioned, our entry in SARB Umm Lulu in Abu Dhabi and our effective entry in the GGIP project in Iraq.

現在讓我們來看看 23 年我們兩大支柱的亮點。去年，所有部門都取得了巨大的成就和強勁的表現，符合我們的策略和目標。在上游和天然氣方面，我們的產量達到了每天248 萬桶石油當量，這得益於1 月份在阿曼的區塊鏈初創公司以及7 月份在阿塞拜疆的Absheron 的初創公司，正如我已經提到的，我們在2017 年進入SARB Umm Lulu。阿布達比和我們有效參與伊拉克 GGIP 計畫。

The company completed the divestment of its Canadian oil assets in line with the strategy to focus on low breakeven assets. For Downstream, we generated $8 billion of cash flow last year. And so we kept -- we were able -- this result is -- or this figure is a result of the fact that we were able to capture high refining margins that averaged $69 per ton last year. In 2023, we awarded EPC contracts for the Amiral project, $11 billion contract. So it's our petrochemical integrated complex in Saudi Arabia with Saudi Aramco that will come on stream in 2027.

該公司完成了加拿大石油資產的剝離，符合專注於低損益平衡資產的策略。對於下游業務，我們去年產生了 80 億美元的現金流。所以我們保持——我們能夠——這個結果是——或者這個數字是我們能夠獲得去年平均每噸 69 美元的高煉油利潤這一事實的結果。 2023年，我們授予了Amiral計畫的EPC合同，合約價值110億美元。我們與沙烏地阿美公司在沙烏地阿拉伯的石化綜合工廠將於 2027 年投產。

The company also announced the sale of some European retail network to Alimentation Couche-Tard, so we completed the German portion before the closure and the remaining parts, so in Netherlands, in Belgium and in Luxembourg, it was completed early Jan 2024. So we pursued our growing strategy in LNG, especially in the U.S., where we, once again, were the largest LNG exporter last year with more than 10 million tonnes of capacity and increased our future position to more than 15 million tonnes per year through our entry into the Rio Grande LNG project and its FID in July.

該公司還宣布將一些歐洲零售網絡出售給Alimentation Couche-Tard，因此我們在關閉之前完成了德國部分以及其餘部分，因此在荷蘭、比利時和盧森堡，它於2024年1月上旬完成。所以我們繼續實施我們在液化天然氣領域的發展策略，特別是在美國，去年我們再次成為最大的液化天然氣出口商，產能超過1000 萬噸，並透過進入Rio Grande 液化天然氣項目及其7 月的最終投資決定(FID) 。

We also reinforced our leading position in Europe regas with the startup of 2 additional FSRUs, so one in Germany, one in France in Le Havre. In integrated power business segments, we pursued our profitable growth strategy with an additional 6 gigawatts of renewable capacity. And we are able to generate more than $2 billion of CFFO, $2.2 billion, compared to $1 billion -- something like $1 billion last year. That means that we are able to more than double the CFFO generated by this activity over 2023.

我們也透過啟動另外 2 座 FSRU，鞏固了我們在歐洲再氣化領域的領先地位，其中 1 座位於德國，1 座位於法國勒阿弗爾。在綜合電力業務領域，我們透過新增 6 吉瓦的再生能源產能來推行獲利成長策略。我們能夠產生超過 20 億美元的 CFFO，即 22 億美元，而去年為 10 億美元，約為 10 億美元。這意味著我們能夠在 2023 年將這項活動產生的 CFFO 增加一倍以上。

In 2023 as well, we accelerated the development of our integrated business model in 2 key deregulated markets. the U.S. on one side, with the announcement of an acquisition of 3 CCGTs for 1.5 gigawatt capacity in Texas and in Germany on the other side, announcing the acquisition of 2 German companies, one a top-tier renewable energy aggregator and a leading battery storage developer.

同樣在 2023 年，我們在兩個關鍵的放鬆管制市場加速了綜合業務模式的發展。一方面，美國宣布收購德州 3 台 1.5 吉瓦容量的 CCGT；另一方面，德國宣布收購 2 家德國公司，其中一家是頂級再生能源聚合商，另一家是領先的電池儲存公司開發商。

So we have built our upstream portfolio through the years with low-cost and sustainable way as illustrated, I think, by these 2 charts. So starting from the left, we'll go back to 2018. We are consistently reporting the lowest Upstream production costs among all the majors, which is, I think, a structural advantage enabling us to be resilient even in a low price environment. Our Upstream production cost averaged $5.5 per barrel oil in 2023. It was $5.1 per barrel during -- in the fourth quarter, benefiting from the divestments of the high-cost Canadian assets. And that's why we targeted for this year, production cost at $5 per barrel.

因此，多年來我們以低成本和可持續的方式建立了上游投資組合，我認為如這兩張圖表所示。因此，從左邊開始，我們將回到 2018 年。我們一直報告所有專業公司中上游生產成本最低，我認為這是一種結構性優勢，使我們即使在低價環境下也能保持彈性。 2023 年，我們的上游生產成本平均為每桶石油 5.5 美元。第四季度，受益於高成本加拿大資產的剝離，該成本為每桶 5.1 美元。這就是為什麼我們今年的生產成本目標為每桶 5 美元。

So our portfolio is a low-cost portfolio, but it's also built to last. And so in this illustration of the second graph on the slide, we have, I think, demonstrated the same consistency with our reserve that we had with production costs as shown in that chart. We continue to replace our reserves, maintaining a strong and steady proved reserve life index of around EUR 12 over the last 5 years. And this positions us as the second among the majors. And in 2023, we achieved a strong reserve replacement ratio, well in excess of our production, so 141% and to be proved plus probable reserve life index at EUR 18.

因此，我們的產品組合是低成本的產品組合，但也是經久耐用的。因此，在投影片第二張圖的插圖中，我認為我們展示了我們與生產成本的一致性，如該圖表所示。我們繼續更換儲量，在過去 5 年將探明儲量壽命指數維持在 12 歐元左右，強勁且穩定。這使我們在各大公司中排名第二。到 2023 年，我們實現了強勁的儲量替代率，遠超過我們的產量，即 141%，待證明加可能儲量壽命指數為 18 歐元。

So now moving to the integrated LNG and integrated power segment. That's the 2 growth segments in our portfolio. That together contributed to almost $10 billion of cash flow in 2023. So we provide here some metrics comparing 2023 figures with 2021. For obvious reasons, 2022 was an exceptional year in relation with the crisis between Ukraine and -- the war between Ukraine and Russia.

現在轉向綜合液化天然氣和綜合電力領域。這是我們投資組合中的兩個成長部分。這些合計在2023 年貢獻了近100 億美元的現金流。因此，我們在此提供了一些將2023 年數據與2021 年數據進行比較的指標。出於顯而易見的原因，2022 年對於烏克蘭危機以及烏克蘭與俄羅斯之間的戰爭而言是特殊的一年。

And so that's main rationale behind the fact that we made this comparison '21 and '23. So in '23, integrated LNG generated $6.2 billion of net operating income, $7.3 billion of CFFO. With all the metrics, in fact, is growing compared to 2021, thanks to the growth to our portfolio, so 44 million tonne sales in 2023 and benefiting from a higher LNG price environment. All in all, the integration -- the integrated LNG profitability improved at 18% ROACE in 2023.

這就是我們在 21 年和 23 年進行比較的主要原因。因此，23 年，綜合液化天然氣產生了 62 億美元的淨營業收入，73 億美元的 CFFO。事實上，由於我們產品組合的成長，所有指標均較 2021 年有所增長，因此 2023 年銷量將達到 4,400 萬噸，並受益於更高的液化天然氣價格環境。總而言之，整合—2023 年綜合液化天然氣獲利能力 ROACE 提高了 18%。

So for integrated power. Adjusted net operating income was $1.9 billion last year. And CFFO, slightly above $2.2 billion. So that means that the gap between the NOI and CFFO is directly linked to the fact that during the fourth quarter, we benefited from some dividends paid by some of our equity affiliates and mainly Clearway.

所以對於綜合功率來說。去年調整後的營業淨收入為 19 億美元。 CFFO 略高於 22 億美元。因此，這意味著 NOI 和 CFFO 之間的差距與第四季度期間我們受益於我們的一些股權附屬公司（主要是 Clearway）支付的股息這一事實直接相關。

So that means that the cash flow almost tripled between 2021 and 2023. And you see the production. It was 21 terawatt hour in 2021, 33 in 2023 with power generation from renewable nearly tripling, 7 in 2023, 19 in 2023. ROACE was at 10% in 2023, in line with our objectives that was set last year. So the last slide is a benchmark of the total energy performance compared to our peers using 3 main metrics. So ROACE, proved reserves life index, TSR and sustainability rating. So thanks, I think, to the consistency of our strategy, the strength of our delivery, we are competitively positioned versus our peers.

因此，這意味著 2021 年至 2023 年間現金流幾乎增加了兩倍。你可以看到產量。 2021 年為21 太瓦時，2023 年為33 太瓦時，再生能源發電量將增加近兩倍，2023 年為7 太瓦時，2023 年為19 太瓦時。2023 年ROACE 為10%，與我們去年設定的目標一致。因此，最後一張投影片是使用 3 個主要指標與同業相比的總能源績效基準。 ROACE、探明儲量壽命指數、TSR 和永續性評級。因此，我認為，由於我們策略的一致性和交付的實力，我們與同行相比具有競爭優勢。

So once again, TotalEnergies, you see here on the slide, was the most profitable super major with ROACE at 19% in 2023. On the reserve side, our proved reserves life index was 12 years, as I already mentioned, in 2023, which puts us #2 among the majors. This is, I think, really a testimony to our continued success in exploration, resource development and active M&A and selective M&A. On the different note, TotalEnergies had once again the best-in-class Sustainalytics rating among the major, a demonstration that it's possible to be the most profitable major on one side and to be a leader in the energy transition on the other side.

因此，您在投影片上看到的 TotalEnergies 再次成為利潤最高的超級巨頭，2023 年 ROACE 為 19%。在儲備方面，正如我已經提到的，2023 年我們的探明儲量壽命指數為 12 年，這使我們在專業中排名第二。我認為，這確實證明了我們在勘探、資源開發以及積極併購和選擇性併購方面持續取得成功。另一方面，TotalEnergies 再次獲得各大公司中同類最佳的 Sustainalytics 評級，這表明它有可能一方面成為最賺錢的大公司，另一方面成為能源轉型的領導者。

And lastly, our 5-year total shareholder return has averaged about 13% per year, ranking on par with our U.S. peers and outperforming clearly our U.K. peers by a wide margin. Our ability to set and execute a consistent strategy, sustain a rich portfolio of opportunities, maintain the dividend through the cycle like during the COVID crisis in 2020 when other cut it, and more recently, significantly increasing shareholder distribution have all contributed to our strong TSR.

最後，我們的 5 年總股東報酬率平均約為每年 13%，與美國同業持平，並大幅優於英國同業。我們有能力製定和執行一致的策略，維持豐富的機會組合，在整個週期內維持股息，就像2020年新冠危機期間其他公司削減股息一樣，以及最近顯著增加的股東分配，這些都為我們強勁的股東總回報率做出了貢獻。

So in summary, to terminate on this section, 2023 was a strong year for TotalEnergies, another big step in terms of shareholder distribution and balance sheet strategy. And on this positive note, I think I will leave the floor to Patrick.

總而言之，2023 年對 TotalEnergies 來說是強勁的一年，是股東分配和資產負債表策略的又一大進步。從正面的角度來看，我想我將把發言權留給派崔克。

Good morning, everybody, for this event. I just -- as always, I'd like to see that slide because I think I should insist on the fact that we demonstrate. And I think it's because we are the most profitable, but we have the right to implement the energy transition strategy that we have decided. But it's visible to remain at the top of profitability and to transition as well and including to invest 1/3 of our investments in electricity.

對於這次活動，大家早安。我只是——一如既往，我想看那張幻燈片，因為我認為我應該堅持我們演示的事實。我認為這是因為我們是最賺錢的，但我們有權實施我們已經決定的能源轉型策略。但顯而易見的是，我們仍將保持獲利能力的領先地位，並進行轉型，包括將 1/3 的投資投資於電力。

And also, by the way, and I think it's important to keep a sustainable portfolio of oil and gas projects like we want to do. So it's an end strategy. It's oil and gas and low carbon energy, in particular, electricity. So just this time, I will not repeat the strategy, but in fact, it's true that the best way to execute -- to speak about strategy is to execute it. So '23 I think Jean-Pierre showed you how we have executed it and positively and '24, we'll maintain that strategy, and we'll have no big news.

順便說一句，我認為像我們想做的那樣保持可持續的石油和天然氣項目組合很重要。所以這是一個最終策略。它是石油和天然氣以及低碳能源，特別是電力。所以這一次，我不會重複戰略，但事實上，執行戰略的最佳方式確實是執行它。所以，'23，我認為讓-皮埃爾向你們展示了我們如何積極地執行它，'24，我們將維持這一策略，我們不會有什麼大新聞。

Sometimes, I think TotalEnergies is a little bothering you, but it's better to be consistent and to -- for continued success. So -- and it's true that we have another way to demonstrate that -- and I mentioned that 1 year, 1.5 years ago and '23 have we reinforced the message. In fact, we have a company which is delivering much higher cash flows with the same brand than in the previous decade. You know and you can see on this chart that the dot points of the last 5 years are quite well aligned, by the way, but the $1 billion per barrel is much higher in terms of equity. It's more accretive than it was in the past.

有時，我認為 TotalEnergies 有點困擾您，但最好保持一致並持續取得成功。所以——我們確實有另一種方式來證明這一點——我提到過，1 年、1.5 年前和 23 年我們強化了這個訊息。事實上，我們有一家公司在同一品牌下提供的現金流比過去十年高得多。順便說一句，您知道並且可以在這張圖表上看到，過去 5 年的點點非常一致，但就權益而言，每桶 10 億美元要高得多。與過去相比，它更具增值性。

And I think that's the result of all the repositioning of the portfolio, the oil and gas portfolio, what we call high-grading the portfolio, that's a reality. And we can see that, in fact, in the results as -- and I think it's one of the new TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies was perceived as a defensive shares, I would say, which was, in fact, amortizing the low price of hydrocarbons, but now it's TotalEnergies is also benefiting from high oil prices. And that's why we can have a more aggressive distribution policy to our shareholders. At the same time, the result is, of course, because we have -- this high grading of the portfolio. It's a breakeven of the portfolio. It's -- barrel again is under $25. It was $22 in '23, but it's one of the clear strong characteristics of our portfolio and the strategy.

我認為這是投資組合、石油和天然氣投資組合重新定位的結果，我們稱之為高評級投資組合，這是現實。事實上，我們可以在結果中看到這一點——我認為這是新的 TotalEnergies 之一。我想說，TotalEnergies 被認為是防禦性股票，事實上，它正在攤銷碳氫化合物的低價，但現在 TotalEnergies 也受益於高油價。這就是為什麼我們可以為股東制定更積極的分配政策。同時，結果當然是因為我們對投資組合進行如此高的評級。這是投資組合的損益平衡。每桶價格再次低於 25 美元。 23 年的價格為 22 美元，但這是我們投資組合和策略的明顯強大特徵之一。

And all that has translated in something which is very new for us. It's a very low gearing, 5% gearing, so net debt of only $6 billion. And that offers, of course, a lot of capacity to engage in our growth strategy, 5 -- more 5 -- we want to grow our energy production by more than 5%, 2 to 3 in hydrocarbons and more on the electricity side. It also offers us a capacity that's the next cycle to be able to maintain the strategy for cycles and this is what I think shareholders should expect from a company like TotalEnergies.

所有這些都轉化為對我們來說非常新的東西。這是一個非常低的負債率，5%，因此淨債務僅為 60 億美元。當然，這為我們的成長策略提供了很大的能力，5——更多5——我們希望能源產量增加5%以上，其中碳氫化合物產量增加2%至3%，電力方面成長更多。它也為我們提供了在下一個週期維持策略的能力，這就是我認為股東應該對像 TotalEnergies 這樣的公司所期望的。

Just a few words about the market we'll face in '24. '23 was strong in terms of oil market plus to an increase of more than 2 million barrels of oil per day. Part of it was a recovery of the previously, the COVID recovery, in particular, in jet fuel and aviation and also in China because in '22, in fact, China was still under the impact of the COVID. They exited from COVID policies long later than other countries. And in fact, so 2 million was quite high.

簡單介紹一下我們 24 年將面臨的市場。 23 年石油市場表現強勁，每天石油產量增加超過 200 萬桶。部分原因是先前的復甦，即新冠疫情的復甦，特別是在噴射燃料和航空領域，以及中國的復甦，因為事實上，在22年，中國仍然受到新冠疫情的影響。他們退出新冠疫情政策的時間比其他國家晚得多。事實上，200萬已經相當高了。

The IEA is announcing plus 1.2% for '24. We share that view, which is people will comment it is lower, but in fact, it's normal. I would say it's back to normal. When you look to the increase of the oil demand from 2000 to 2023, the average is 1.2% per year. 1.2% per year, by the way, it is the average growth of the population of the planet. So there is direct link because population and oil demand. So it's back to normality. So some people will comment because China is lower. No, in fact, it's back to normality. There is nothing surprising.

IEA 宣布 24 年升息 1.2%。我們同意這個觀點，即人們會評論它更低，但事實上，這是正常的。我想說，一切都恢復正常了。綜觀 2000 年至 2023 年石油需求的成長情況，平均每年成長 1.2%。每年1.2%，順便說一下，這是地球人口的平均成長率。因此，人口和石油需求之間存在直接聯繫。所以一切都恢復正常了。所以有人會評論因為中國更低。不，事實上，一切都恢復正常了。沒有什麼奇怪的。

And in fact -- and so we don't see still, even if some people want some -- want to see a deterioration of the oil growth. No, in fact, the reality is that we are back to direct link with population growth. And that's one of the key challenges for the energy transition. On the supply side, that's true that we have some non-OPEC countries, particularly in the Americas, it's the U.S., it's Brazil. Guyana, which are bringing some new oil. The OPEC is managing that new supply and demand. I would say we have done very well in '23, in fact, more or less stabilizing the price around $80 per barrel. Today, probably the market is supported by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. That's true.

事實上——所以我們仍然不希望看到石油成長惡化，即使有些人想要一些。不，事實上，現實是我們又回到了與人口成長的直接連結。這是能源轉型的關鍵挑戰之一。在供應方面，確實有一些非歐佩克國家，特別是在美洲，包括美國、巴西。圭亞那正在帶來一些新石油。歐佩克正在管理新的供應和需求。我想說我們在 23 年做得很好，事實上，或多或少將價格穩定在每桶 80 美元左右。今天，市場可能受到中東地緣政治緊張局勢的支撐。這是真的。

There is a more bearish thinking. But OPEC is still there, and I think the move of Saudi Arabia, but they are sitting there. Sitting at 12 million barrels per day is contributing to stabilizing this market as well.

還有一種更悲觀的想法。但歐佩克仍然在那裡，我認為沙烏地阿拉伯的舉動，但他們仍然坐在那裡。每天 1200 萬桶的產量也有助於穩定這個市場。

On the LNG side, I would say, of course, we've seen with high prices, a lower growth, but still 6% per year as an average from 15% to 23%. I'm convinced we will see a good year in '24, again, coming back, in particular, we see China. China has grown its imports by 11% in '23 compared to '22.

在液化天然氣方面，我想說，當然，我們看到價格較高，成長較低，但每年仍維持 6%，平均從 15% 到 23%。我相信我們會在24年再次看到美好的一年，特別是我們看到中國。與 22 年相比，23 年中國的進口成長了 11%。

Not yet at 71 million tonnes. They are not yet at the level where they were in '21. They were at 81 million tonnes. So there is still room to grow. We see today the Chinese buyers quite aggressive. You've seen them signing a number of long-term contracts. They still have to have a mandate to continue to sign. Some of them, we have ourselves some discussion with some of these players to engage. So they are willing to diversify. By the way, they are a source of LNG. And I would not be surprised to see, in particular, when GKM is around $10 per million BTU like it is today. It's a good driver and I will not be surprised to see China coming back to 80 million tonnes like they were in '21, in '24.

尚未達到 7,100 萬噸。他們還沒有達到21年的水準。產量為 8,100 萬噸。所以仍有成長的空間。今天我們看到中國買家相當激進。您已經看到他們簽署了許多長期合約。他們仍然需要獲得授權才能繼續簽署。其中一些，我們自己與其中一些參與者進行了一些討論。所以他們願意多元化。順便說一句，它們是液化天然氣的來源。尤其是當 GKM 的價格約為每百萬 BTU 10 美元（就像今天一樣）時，我不會感到驚訝。這是一個很好的推動力，看到中國像 21 年、24 年那樣恢復到 8000 萬噸，我不會感到驚訝。

At the same time, in the meantime, Europe has grown a lot from 65 to 113, 114, '22, 113, imports of LNG because we had to replace the Russian gas so that has been a big shock in the market, which is being absorbed. '24, so we don't -- we expect a better demand. In fact, the tension will remain because the LNG capacity increase is limited. Not much new capacity is coming on stream. We identified something like 8 million tonnes part of it being Arctic 2, which will have a limited market, I would say.

同時，歐洲的液化天然氣進口量從 65 增加到 113、114、'22、113，因為我們必須更換俄羅斯天然氣，這對市場造成了很大的衝擊，被吸收。 '24，所以我們不——我們預計會有更好的需求。事實上，由於液化天然氣產能增加有限，緊張局勢仍將持續。沒有太多新產能投產。我們發現大約有 800 萬噸，其中有一部分是 Arctic 2，我想說，它的市場有限。

So in fact, you have a tension in the market. And if any of this plant has a problem like we had Freeport 2 years ago, again, the tension will be come back in the market. So there is not a message on LNG. Price are lower, good for mark -- for demand, in particular, in Asia and China. Limited additional supply '24. And in fact, I think these metrics will be repeated for '25 is the same. It's only by mid-'26, '27 that really we'll see more supply coming on stream.

所以事實上，市場存在緊張局勢。如果這家工廠中的任何一家再次出現像兩年前自由港那樣的問題，市場就會再次出現緊張局勢。所以目前還沒有關於 LNG 的消息。價格較低，有利於市場需求——尤其是亞洲和中國的需求。額外供應有限'24。事實上，我認為這些指標將在 25 年重複出現，是相同的。直到 26 年、27 年中期，我們才會真正看到更多的供應投入生產。

So that's for the environment, which is globally positive for TotalEnergies. The key targets, you've seen the scorecard for '23. So what are the key targets for '24 and this slide summarizes it. Upstream production, 2.4, 2.5, plus 2%, excluding Canada. We come back on that. Production costs, it was mentioned, we will consolidate our advantage $5 per barrel. LNG sales above 40 million tonnes. It's 30% equity, 40% long-term supplies and 30% spot. So the spot has good variation. We will have a good utilization rate in refining because we have lower program of turnarounds. So we target 85%.

這就是環境問題，這對全球能源公司來說是正面的。關鍵目標，您已經看到了 23 年的記分卡。那麼 24 年的主要目標是什麼，這張投影片對此進行了總結。上游產量，2.4，2.5，加2%，不含加拿大。我們回到這一點。有人提到，生產成本我們將鞏固每桶5美元的優勢。液化天然氣銷售超過4000萬噸。其中 30% 為股權，40% 為長期供應，30% 為現貨。所以這個地方有很好的改變。由於我們的周轉計劃較低，因此我們的煉油利用率將很高。所以我們的目標是85%。

The renewable gross installed capacity will continue to grow. We are under pace of 6 gigawatts per year since last year, and we intend to execute. I remind you that the key meeting we have 35 in mind in '25. So we will need to accelerate to 7 gigawatts. But we are on the right pace, I would say, that we wanted to reach. And more importantly to us because it will impact, of course, the results. It's electricity net production. I will come back on it more than 45 terawatt hour compared to 33 in '23. The emissions we want them to continue to go down. So that's the 38.8 seems to be a little high, but I remind you that when we acquire gas-fired power plant in Texas, it will add some CO2. So it's a choice.

再生能源總裝置容量將持續成長。自去年以來，我們正以每年 6 吉瓦的速度前進，並且我們打算執行。我提醒您，我們在 25 年要舉行 35 場關鍵會議。因此我們需要加速到 7 吉瓦。但我想說，我們正處於我們想要達到的正確步伐。對我們來說更重要的是，因為它當然會影響結果。這是電力網路生產。我會回來使用超過 45 太瓦時的電量，而 20 年為 33 太瓦時。我們希望他們的排放量繼續下降。所以這個38.8似乎有點高，但我提醒你，當我們收購德州的燃氣發電廠時，它會增加一些二氧化碳。所以這是一個選擇。

The methane, it's a strong fight leading the -- we are one of the leading company in this fight. Objective is 80%, about 2030 reduction compared to 2020. The 50% we're supposed to be achieved in '25. We are at minus 47%. So we'll see if we have the ambition to reach it 50%. It's not linear because in fact, it's project by project. So you could -- so for E&P, it's not a linear, but 50% seems to -- is the ambition to reach it 1 year in advance.

甲烷，這是一場強而有力的戰鬥，我們是這場戰鬥中的領先公司之一。目標是 80%，大約是 2030 年比 2020 年減少。我們應該在 25 年達到 50%。我們的比例為-47%。所以我們會看看我們是否有志向達到 50%。它不是線性的，因為事實上，它是一個又一個專案的。因此，對於 E&P 來說，這不是線性的，但 50% 似乎是提前 1 年實現這一目標的雄心。

And then the last indicator for me is the most important one. It's what we call the life cycle carbon intensity of our sales. In fact, there should be sales on the paper because, in fact, it's a way to -- it's strategy -- it translates in our sales to customers. It's recovering Scope 1 plus 2 plus 3.

最後一個指標對我來說是最重要的。這就是我們所說的銷售生命週期碳強度。事實上，紙上應該有銷售，因為事實上，這是一種方式——它是策略——它轉化為我們對客戶的銷售。它正在恢復範圍 1 加 2 加 3。

And we have an objective to decarbonize, I would say, or to have low carbon energies in -- to sell energies with a lower carbon content fundamentally. It's 25% by 2030. We are, each year, progressing. So this year, it was minus 13%. Next year, minus 14%, more or less 1% per year we will -- it's linked -- directly linked to the -- of course, the more we will sell electrons, the better it is. Positive cash flow, I will come back, $34 billion in $80 Brent, $10 per Mbtu, it's -- there's a mistake. It's $50 per tonne and not $60 per tonne, $34 billion.

我想說，我們的目標是脫碳，或者說擁有低碳能源——從根本上銷售碳含量較低的能源。到 2030 年，這一比例將達到 25%。我們每年都在進步。所以今年是-13%。明年，負 14%，每年或多或少 1%，我們將——它是相關的——直接相關——當然，我們銷售電子越多，效果就越好。正現金流，我會回來的，340 億美元的布蘭特原油價格為 80 美元，每 Mbtu 10 美元，這是——有一個錯誤。是每噸 50 美元，而不是每噸 60 美元，而是 340 億美元。

Net investments of $17 billion, $18 billion, we will come back on it. 1/3 in integrated power and low-carbon molecules and the commitment we take true to our shareholders more in September, more than 40% of cash flow payout. So that's the objective. So coming on the CapEx. On the CapEx side. Now we have a rich portfolio of projects, either on hydrocarbons or LNG and also on the integrated power side. So we want to grow our energy production by 5% between '23 and '28 and 2% to 3% for hydrocarbon. So that you know we need to invest to put this to -- all these nice projects into production.

淨投資170億美元、180億美元，我們會拿回來的。 1/3在綜合電力和低碳分子，9月我們更兌現了對股東的承諾，現金流支付超過40%。這就是目標。因此，我們要考慮資本支出。在資本支出方面。現在我們擁有豐富的專案組合，無論是碳氫化合物、液化天然氣或綜合電力方面。因此，我們希望在 23 年至 28 年間將能源產量增加 5%，碳氫化合物產量增加 2% 至 3%。所以你知道我們需要投資才能將所有這些不錯的項目投入生產。

So we had a guidance of $16 billion, $18 billion for the 5 years. This '24, we announced $17 billion to $18 billion. All segments benefiting from the $1 billion increase, I would say, which is -- so we keep the discipline and 1/3 in the integrated power and low-carbon molecule, 1/3 in new projects, oil and gas projects, 1 in LNG projects and 1/3 in maintenance. So the guidance is the same than what we announced in September.

因此，我們的 5 年指引值為 160 億美元、180 億美元。今年 24 月，我們宣布投入 170 億至 180 億美元。我想說的是，所有細分市場都受益於10 億美元的成長，也就是說，我們保持紀律，1/3 在綜合電力和低碳分子中，1/3 在新項目、石油和天然氣項目中，1/3 在綜合電力和低碳分子中，1/3 在新項目、石油和天然氣項目中液化天然氣項目，1/3 處於維護階段。因此，該指導意見與我們在 9 月宣布的指導意見相同。

So what do we intend to do? On the oil side, we continue -- the idea is to continue to deliver, to work to deliver all this growth and midterm growth. So we are there on this slide a summary of our different actions and which are, of course, Nicolas teams, I would say, focus on delivery. On the major projects, we have progressing, in particular, in Brazil. Somewhere in our portfolio, Brazil is replacing Russia in fact, when you look to in E&P. We had Mero 2, which came on stream the last day of the year. It's a Petrobras way to celebrate the New Year. For me, the first year of '24 -- first day of '24, not the last day of '22 plus one well. So we expect more production. But we are working on Mero 3 where Petrobras is planning to start up by end '24.

那我們打算做什麼呢？在石油方面，我們繼續下去——我們的想法是繼續實現，努力實現所有這些成長和中期成長。因此，我們在這張投影片上總結了我們不同的行動，當然，我想說的是，尼古拉斯團隊專注於交付。在重大項目上，我們取得了進展，特別是在巴西。事實上，在我們的投資組合中，當你專注於勘探與生產時，巴西正在取代俄羅斯。我們有 Mero 2，它在今年的最後一天上線。這是巴西國家石油公司慶祝新年的方式。對我來說，24年的第一年——24年的第一天，而不是22年的最後一天加上一天。因此我們預計會有更多產量。但我們正在開發 Mero 3，巴西國家石油公司計劃在 24 年底啟動該計畫。

Then we have Mero 4, which is also on its way, which will be second half of '25. And then in the U.S., we are working with Chevron Ballymore. So that's a nonoperated asset. For the operated ones, we have, of course, very important one is Uganda in company share. It's almost 130,000 barrels per day. So it's a big impact. So we progress and with the target is end '25. So we should be, by end '24, around 60% of progress. It has already been launched. And Ratawi, of course, our teams are on the ground. I visited them 2x twice in the last quarter in -- where we have -- operations have been handed over to us, and we are executing the first phase of the project to grow the production from 60,000 barrels day to 110,000 barrels per day. So that's the first phase. Then we will go to 200 and more than 200.

然後我們還有 Mero 4，它也在路上，將於 25 年下半年推出。然後在美國，我們正在與雪佛龍巴利摩合作。所以這是一項非營運資產。對經營者來說，我們當然有非常重要的一個，就是烏幹達的公司股份。每天接近 13 萬桶。所以影響很大。所以我們取得了進展，目標是 25 年底。因此，到 24 年底，我們應該會取得 60% 左右的進展。它已經推出了。當然，拉塔維我們的團隊也在現場。上個季度我兩次拜訪了他們，我們所在的工廠已移交給我們，我們正在執行該專案的第一階段，將產量從每天 60,000 桶增加到每天 110,000 桶。這是第一階段。然後我們會到200、200以上。

At the same time, as you know, we work on the gas flaring and on the solar part. So that's, I would say, the major projects. We follow that carefully. We have in '24 as well quite a big, I would say, agenda on sanctioning new projects. In Brazil, again, we are embarked -- we have been successful in both Tyra. So we are embarked to sanction Sépia 2 and Atapu 2 on which Petrobras, I think, is making a joint -- sort of joint tender. We are lucky to be on both sides.

同時，如您所知，我們正在研究氣體燃燒和太陽能部分。我想說，這就是主要項目。我們仔細遵循這一點。我想說，我們在 24 年也有一個相當大的議程來批准新項目。在巴西，我們再次出發——我們在泰拉（Tyra）都取得了成功。因此，我們開始批准 Sépia 2 和 Atapu 2，我認為巴西國家石油公司正在對這兩個項目進行聯合——某種聯合招標。我們很幸運能夠站在雙方的立場。

We have also Kaminho, which is a name, which has been selected for the development on Block 20. It's an 80,000 barrel per day development on Block 20. We are operator. We should be able to sanction that by middle of the year. We have the last, I would say, the last discussions. And on Block 58, at Suriname, this one is not yet a name, maybe it's Krabdagu or I don't know if there are 2 discoveries. We have Krabdagu and the other one, Sapakara, maybe will give us a name. We are -- it's not yet there. But this one, of course, is important because it's a 200,000 barrels per day project. We have 50% of it. So it's an important project.

我們還有 Kaminho，這是一個名字，已被選定用於 20 號區塊的開發。這是 20 號區塊的日產量 80,000 桶的開發項目。我們是營運商。我們應該能夠在今年年中之前批准這一點。我想說，我們進行了最後一次討論。在蘇利南的58號區塊，這個還沒有名字，也許是Krabdagu，或者我不知道是否有兩個發現。我們有 Krabdagu，另一個叫 Sapakara，也許會給我們一個名字。我們——還沒到那兒。但這當然很重要，因為這是一個每天 20 萬桶的專案。我們有50%。所以這是一個重要的項目。

The objective being to sanction it before year-end 2024, and we are working on it. All these, I remind you, is the criteria to sanction projects. We assess a profitability at $50 per barrel, $100 per tonne and each project should respect 2 conditions: one, cost or I would say, economics is less than $20 per barrel or less than $30 of breakeven after tax. And the other one is emissions less than our portfolio average. And the portfolio average is lower. It was 20-kilogram per barrel in 2020. The portfolio average emission intensity is 18. So the new criteria is less than 18 kilograms per barrel of CO2. And so we progress. It's a virtuous criteria and this will be the case of the 4 projects, which I just mentioned.

我們的目標是在 2024 年底之前批准該法案，我們正在努力實現這一目標。我提醒大家，這些都是核准專案的標準。我們評估獲利能力為每桶50 美元、每噸100 美元，每個專案應滿足2 個條件：一是成本，或者我想說的是，經濟效益低於每桶20 美元，或稅後損益平衡點低於30 美元。另一個是排放量低於我們投資組合的平均值。而且投資組合的平均水準較低。 2020 年為每桶 20 公斤。組合平均排放強度為 18。因此，新標準是每桶二氧化碳少於 18 公斤。所以我們進步了。這是一個良性的標準，我剛才提到的 4 個項目就是這種情況。

An innovation that we announced yesterday or today, I don't know, but we need to continue to work on the CapEx costs. Of course, we face an environment which have more inflation. In particular, in the drilling rigs for deepwater, we've seen the market moving from $200,000 per day to more than $400,000 per day. So we decided to take an innovative action, which is to acquire part of a rig because to control the cost, in fact, for us, with Vantage, 75%. It's a way to hedge, in fact, our costs on drilling. The company will benefit from, but I can tell you the costs are not $400,000 per day. They are much lower than that.

我不知道我們昨天或今天宣布的一項創新，但我們需要繼續努力解決資本支出成本。當然，我們面臨通貨膨脹加劇的環境。特別是在深水鑽機方面，我們看到市場從每天 20 萬美元上升到每天超過 40 萬美元。所以我們決定採取一個創新的行動，就是購買部分鑽孔機，因為為了控製成本，事實上，對我們來說，Vantage 是 75%。事實上，這是對沖我們鑽探成本的一種方式。公司會從中受益，但我可以告訴你，每天的成本不是40萬美元。他們比那低得多。

I know it's -- some people -- but we know we are using a fleet of 8 to 10 deepwater rigs per year. So to try to manage one -- maybe it's only the first one of the fleet, but it's a way to hedge the costs because we cannot just accept that because of less competition, the costs are increasing because the market is not really there. It's more less competition. So we have decided to move. I was frustrated during 15 years. I have realized one of my personal objectives not to let these guys taking plenty of money of us without participating or getting it. So it's a way to control the cost.

我知道——有些人——但我們知道我們每年使用 8 到 10 個深水鑽井平台。因此，嘗試管理一個——也許這只是艦隊中的第一個，但這是對沖成本的一種方式，因為我們不能僅僅接受由於競爭減少而導致成本增加，因為市場並不真正存在。競爭更小了。所以我們決定搬家。 15年裡我很沮喪。我已經意識到我的個人目標之一，就是不要讓這些人在沒有參與或得到的情況下從我們身上拿走很多錢。所以這是控製成本的一種方法。

In '24, another comment I want to make -- these are the new productions coming on stream, Mero 2, Tyra in Denmark, the redevelopment in Tyra that we inherited from Maersk. It's planned for end of March, beginning of April. Anchor in the U.S. with Chevron. It's important comment, and we just announced a new production coming in the portfolio. We will need to close it by end of the first half, probably, gas in Malaysia. We are acquiring this OMV share on this field with quite a good potential to deploy beyond the asset. There are a lot of other opportunities in Malaysia. It's also a way for us to consolidate our partnership with PETRONAS working there.

在 24 年，我想發表另一條評論 - 這些是即將投產的新產品，Mero 2，丹麥的 Tyra，以及我們從馬士基繼承的 Tyra 的重建項目。計劃三月底四月初。在美國與雪佛龍公司合作。這是一個重要的評論，我們剛剛宣布了產品組合中的新作品。我們需要在上半年結束前關閉它，可能是馬來西亞的天然氣。我們正在收購該領域的 OMV 份額，該領域具有相當大的潛力，可以在資產之外進行部署。馬來西亞還有很多其他機會。這也是我們鞏固與在那裡工作的馬石油的合作夥伴關係的一種方式。

All these additions including the ones which have been put into production in '23, when you look at them, which is Absheron, which is SARB Umm Lulu, Iraq as well. When you look to their cash flow per barrel, they are all accretive compared to our portfolio. And so -- and it's important. They have an average, I would say, of cash flow per barrel around $30 per barrel compared to our portfolio, which is around $22. So it's again back to my comment, but we continue to high-grade the portfolio, and that's very pragmatic. It's true for acquisition and divestment, which we acquired in SARB Umm Lulu and Sapura, but compared to what we divest, by the way, in Canada make accretive part of the barrels that we produce.

所有這些新增的項目，包括23年投入生產的項目，你看一下，那就是阿布歇隆，也就是伊拉克的SARB Umm Lulu。當你查看他們每桶的現金流時，與我們的投資組合相比，它們都是增值的。所以——這很重要。我想說，他們的平均每桶現金流約為每桶 30 美元，而我們的投資組合約為 22 美元。因此，再次回到我的評論，但我們繼續對投資組合進行高評級，這是非常務實的。收購和撤資也是如此，我們在 SARB Umm Lulu 和 Sapura 收購了這些資產，但與我們撤資相比，順便說一句，在加拿大，我們生產的桶的一部分是增值的。

It's true as well for the organic part of the portfolio. So that's an important message. In particular, at a time where, in fact, the declining part of our portfolio, for example, in the Northern U.K. have a low -- much lower CFFO per barrel because of the taxation. So we continue to high-grade the portfolio for this new project.

對於投資組合的有機部分也是如此。所以這是一個重要的訊息。特別是，事實上，我們投資組合中下降的部分，例如在英國北部，由於稅收的原因，每桶 CFFO 較低，低得多。因此，我們繼續對這個新項目的投資組合進行高評級。

Exploration. It has been for TotalEnergies successful story for the last year. We did not mention there Nigeria and (inaudible) or Cyprus, by the way, where we are confirming with Eni, we have 50% of these discoveries with Eni in Cyprus. We have the gas in Cyprus for sure. So we will find a way to have an efficient development process.

勘探。去年，TotalEnergies 取得了成功。我們沒有提到尼日利亞和（聽不清楚）或塞浦路斯，順便說一句，我們正在與埃尼公司確認，我們與埃尼公司在塞浦路斯有 50% 的發現。我們在塞浦路斯肯定有天然氣。因此，我們將找到一種方法來實現高效的開發流程。

And I think being partner with Eni, will obviously have some capacities neighboring country is a nice way too. And I love the fact that Eni is keen to go to shorten the time to market. So we are fully supportive on that, in particular, and this part of the Mediterranean Sea. Here, I interested, I just mentioned Sakapara South and Krabgadu. So I will not come back on Suriname. On Namibia, we continue to drill. So Mangetti, I can tell you is we find again some hydrocarbons in Mangetti. We find again the hydrocarbon level of Venus or the extension to the north.

我認為與埃尼合作，顯然在鄰國擁有一些能力也是一個不錯的方式。我喜歡埃尼熱衷於縮短上市時間的事實。因此，我們完全支持這一點，特別是地中海的這一部分。在這裡，我感興趣，我剛剛提到了 Sakapara South 和 Krabgadu。所以我不會再來蘇利南。在納米比亞，我們繼續進行鑽探。曼傑蒂，我可以告訴你，我們在曼傑蒂再次發現了一些碳氫化合物。我們再次發現金星的碳氫化合物水平或向北延伸。

As it was commented by one mind of my peers, and we share the data with our neighboring peer. We -- in the different appraisal wells and the test, there is clearly not a heterogeneous -- it's not homogeneous field. There are a lot of hydrocarbons, but we need to -- there are some sweet spots in terms of productivity, permeability. There are some areas which have less good characteristics. I repeat that on our side, we see a first development clearly, in our hand. If no question of optimizing, we'll continue to drill for many debates in the company because everybody is excited. We have another exploration potential well on the south of Venus called (inaudible), and we can also continue to appraise what has been discovered.

正如我的一位同行所評論的那樣，我們與鄰近的同行共享數據。我們──在不同的評價井和測試中，顯然不存在異質──它不是均質的油田。碳氫化合物有很多，但我們需要——在生產力、滲透率方面有一些最佳點。有些地區的特色不太好。我再說一遍，在我們這邊，我們清楚地看到了第一個進展，就在我們手中。如果沒有優化的問題，我們會繼續在公司裡進行很多辯論，因為每個人都很興奮。我們在金星南部還有另一個勘探潛力井，稱為（聽不清楚），我們還可以繼續評估已發現的內容。

So clearly, Namibia is on the top of our spending in exploration and appraisal. We'll spend around 30% of our budget exploration appraisal in Namibia again in '24 because we have continued to see what is the best way to develop that.

顯然，納米比亞在勘探和評估方面的支出名列前茅。 24 年，我們將再次在納米比亞花費約 30% 的勘探評估預算，因為我們一直在尋找開發該專案的最佳方式。

LNG, the other part. So several message on the slide for '24. First, the projects. We have quite a big portfolio of 4 projects fundamentally in the U.S. and Qatar.

液化天然氣，另一部分。投影片上有 24 年的幾則訊息。首先，項目。我們擁有相當大的投資組合，包括 4 個項目，主要位於美國和卡達。

In the U.S., in fact, Energia Costa Azul is not in the U.S., it's in Mexico, but it's a gas coming from the U.S. that we valorize. This project is progressing well. We should be able to produce by mid-'25, I think that's more or less a target we have with Sempra. For us, it's important, I remind you because we have access to -- we have only 16% of the project, but we have access to almost 55% of the production, 1.7 million tonnes, very well located to go to Asia. We have North Field East as well in Qatar and North Field South, 2 large projects. It's 2 million tonnes for the first one, 1.5 million tonnes for the second one, for TotalEnergies. They are on its way? Things have been sanctioned and contractors are mobilized.

事實上，在美國，Energia Costa Azul 不在美國，而是在墨西哥，但我們重視的是來自美國的天然氣。該專案進展順利。我們應該能夠在 25 年中期之前生產，我認為這或多或少是我們對 Sempra 的目標。我提醒大家，這對我們來說很重要，因為我們只擁有該專案的 16%，但我們可以獲得近 55% 的產量，即 170 萬噸，地理位置非常好，可以運往亞洲。我們在卡達還有 North Field East 和 North Field South 兩個大型項目。 TotalEnergies 的第一個項目為 200 萬噸，第二個項目為 150 萬噸。他們正在路上嗎？事情已經得到批准，承包商也被動員起來。

And then the last one is Rio Grande. We, I think, selected a good project in South Texas. We have a good contractor Bechtel, very committed. We have all the authorizations. So no problem of temporary ban. And so we are moving on. Of course, it's quite a large project. So our target is '27, but it's on its way and even a little in advance compared to the planning curve. Two of our projects are important, which will -- on which we work is Mozambique. So Mozambique, we have, I think, the security report, the human rights report. Now, we are remobilizing the contractors. And I think we are not far from having everything set with them.

最後一個是格蘭德河。我認為我們在德克薩斯州南部選擇了一個很好的項目。我們有一個很好的承包商柏克德，非常忠誠。我們擁有所有授權。所以不存在臨時禁令的問題。我們正在繼續前進。當然，這是一個相當大的工程。所以我們的目標是 27 年，但它正在實現中，甚至比規劃曲線提前了一點。我們的兩個項目很重要，其中我們正在進行的項目是莫三比克。因此，我認為莫三比克我們有安全報告、人權報告。現在，我們正在重新動員承包商。我認為我們離與他們一起解決一切問題已經不遠了。

The last part is there is a large project financing, which was, I would say, put on hold when the events came in '21. And so we need now to -- we are reactivating with all these financial institutions around the world, this project financing and when all that will be done, we will start again the project. On Papua LNG, we are working as well on all the France marketing. It's a project which is well perceived in Asia, but also the financing because we need to put the financing in place and the EPC contracts we work with contractors. So that's on LNG, 6 projects I would say, in parallel.

最後一部分是一個大型專案融資，我想說，當 21 年事件發生時，該融資被擱置了。因此，我們現在需要——我們正在與世界各地所有這些金融機構重新啟動該專案融資，當所有這些都完成後，我們將再次啟動該專案。在巴布亞液化天然氣方面，我們也致力於所有法國行銷工作。這是一個在亞洲廣受認可的項目，而且融資也很受歡迎，因為我們需要落實融資以及與承包商合作的 EPC 合約。這就是液化天然氣項目，我想說的是，有 6 個項目是並行的。

A comment on the results that I want just to clarify, I know we had the question mark. 2023 somewhere, we benefited from the fact that we are hedging 1 year in advance part of our portfolio except Russia. So this was represented in the $7.3 billion, I think, that were mentioned by Jean-Pierre, $500 million. So this $500 million were exceptional. We could not hedge at the same level for '24 in '23. Having said that, and what we target is $7 billion, I would say, of cash flow from LNG because we have a better -- we have a growth, as we mentioned, 9% in the growth production in '23. So we will benefit of it. So we should be around $7 billion. So we expect a stable, I would say, cash flow coming from LNG. We took an environment for this figure, which is a little lower than in '23 on TTF, $10 instead of $13, just to -- as an average.

我想澄清一下對結果的評論，我知道我們有問號。到 2023 年，我們受益於這樣一個事實：我們提前一年對沖除俄羅斯以外的部分投資組合。我認為，讓-皮埃爾提到的 73 億美元就是 5 億美元。所以這 5 億美元是非同尋常的。我們無法在 23 年以 24 年的相同水準進行對沖。話雖如此，我想說的是，我們的目標是來自液化天然氣的 70 億美元現金流，因為我們有更好的成長——正如我們所提到的，23 年產量增加了 9%。所以我們會從中受益。所以我們的規模應該在 70 億美元左右。因此，我想說，我們預計液化天然氣將帶來穩定的現金流。我們為這個數字設定了一個環境，​​這個數字比 23 年的 TTF 略低，10 美元而不是 13 美元，只是作為平均值。

Integrated power for '24. We commented already the increase of capacity plus 6 gigawatts, the electricity generation more than 45, 25 coming from renewables. And for the cash flow, we continue -- the idea is that we should grow to reach the net cash flow positive by 2020 and we need to grow by $500 million per year, more or less. So the idea is -- our objective is to be able to deliver $2.5 billion to $3 billion out of a portfolio of which will be by end of '24 around $25 billion of cash capital employed, $24 billion, $25 billion. So that's continued growth and all businesses are contributing to this increase. Of course, it's important to demonstrate the profitability and the 10% ROACE, the ambition is to grow it to 12% by '28.

'24 的整合電源。我們已經評論說，容量增加了6吉瓦，發電量超過45兆瓦，其中25兆瓦來自再生能源。對於現金流，我們繼續——我們的想法是，我們應該在 2020 年之前實現正淨現金流，並且我們需要每年或多或少成長 5 億美元。所以我們的想法是——我們的目標是能夠從投資組合中交付 25 億至 30 億美元，到 24 年底，該投資組合將使用約 250 億美元、240 億美元、250 億美元的現金資本。因此，這是持續的成長，所有企業都在為這一成長做出貢獻。當然，展示獲利能力和 10% 的 ROACE 很重要，我們的目標是到 28 年將其成長到 12%。

Just a word about what we are building in Texas. It's one of the announcements that we've done during the last quarter. Texas is a very interesting market because it's a growing market, growing population in Texas. People in the U.S. are moving to Texas. So -- and it's with quite a lot of imbalances and bottlenecks in the infrastructure, which create a lot of opportunities for renewables but also for flexible generation.

簡單介紹一下我們在德克薩斯州正在建造的項目。這是我們在上個季度發布的公告之一。德州是一個非常有趣的市場，因為它是一個不斷增長的市場，德州的人口也在不斷增長。美國人正在搬到德克薩斯州。因此，基礎設施方面存在相當多的不平衡和瓶頸，這為再生能源和靈活發電創造了大量機會。

And in particular, it's quite nice for us because it's -- during the summer that the spark spread in the U.S. is very positive. In Europe in our portfolio, the gas plants are more in the winter instead of summer. And it could reach very high level. So even if the use of these gas plants is maybe only 1/3 of the year, so cash -- the profit generation can be very high. And we need to have these assets. We've done that in good conditions in terms of accessing $600 million for 1.5 gigawatt is a good price.

特別是，這對我們來說非常好，因為在夏天，火花在美國蔓延是非常積極的。在我們的歐洲投資組合中，天然氣發電廠更多地在冬季而不是夏季。而且可以達到非常高的水平。因此，即使這些天然氣發電廠的使用量可能只有一年的 1/3，現金 - 產生的利潤也可能非常高。我們需要擁有這些資產。我們已經在良好的條件下做到了這一點，以 6 億美元的價格購買 1.5 吉瓦是一個不錯的價格。

A direct negotiation with a private equity firm, which allow us to have access to these capacities. And it's important because fundamentally, our customers corporate PPA, what they want to have is not only a green electricity, they want a firm electricity and to deliver a firm, if we don't have a firm power, if we don't have enough in our portfolio, some gas plants or flexible assets like batteries, we have also some batteries in Texas. We are already 300 megawatts installed. We continue to grow it. If we don't have these type of assets, it's difficult to make trading and to make offers which are competitive. So that's the whole objective that we are pursuing. And you will see us continuing to be very active in Texas because it's a good market to develop -- to deploy our integrated power strategy.

與私募股權公司的直接談判，使我們能夠獲得這些能力。這很重要，因為從根本上來說，我們的客戶企業購電協議，他們想要的不僅僅是綠色電力，他們想要穩定的電力並提供穩定的電力，如果我們沒有穩定的電力，如果我們沒有我們的投資組合中已經足夠了，一些天然氣廠或電池等靈活資產，我們在德克薩斯州也有一些電池。我們已經安裝了 300 兆瓦。我們繼續發展它。如果我們沒有這些類型的資產，就很難進行交易並提出有競爭力的報價。這就是我們追求的全部目標。您將看到我們在德克薩斯州繼續非常活躍，因為這是一個值得開發的良好市場 - 部署我們的綜合電力策略。

On the Downstream for '24 . We anticipate the market to be a little lower than '23. '22, '23 in refining has been quite a strong market, supported by the ban on Russian crudes, the geopolitical tensions. We see some ease in the markets on refining, coming back to something like $50, $60 per ton, which is still quite high compared to what we experienced in the year 2015, 2020, but probably, I would say, a softer environment in '24.

'24 的下游。我們預計市場將略低於 23 年。 '22'、'23年煉油市場一直相當強勁，受到俄羅斯原油禁令、地緣政治緊張局勢的支撐。我們看到煉油市場有所緩和，回到每噸 50 美元、60 美元左右，與我們在 2015 年和 2020 年經歷的情況相比，這仍然相當高，但我想說，「 24.

It's also true in petrochemicals, where clearly there is a lower demand in Europe. We see the impact of European economic crisis, the macro crisis and in the U.S. as well. So in Asia, it's still good. But -- so that impacts the margins on polymers. We were, I would say, during the first half or first 3 quarters of the year, quite preserved because of our position. Now this is the impact of these lower margins. So that's why we -- the $8 billion of cash flow we had in -- we performed in '23, we think it could be around $7 billion in '24 as a guidance. In the Refining & Chemicals and Marketing which -- here in downstream, it covers 3 segments, we are also working on the transition, in particular, on the south market will deliver multiplied by 2 of production in '24. It's in line with what we -- our customers are expecting because the mandates begin to grow in some countries.

石化產業也是如此，歐洲的需求顯然較低。我們看到了歐洲經濟危機、宏觀危機以及美國的影響。所以在亞洲，還是不錯的。但是——這會影響聚合物的利潤。我想說，在今年上半年或前三個季度，由於我們的地位，我們的表現相當不錯。這就是利潤率下降的影響。這就是為什麼我們在 23 年擁有 80 億美元的現金流，我們認為作為指導，24 年可能會達到 70 億美元左右。在煉油、化工和行銷領域，在下游，它涵蓋了 3 個細分市場，我們也在努力轉型，特別是在南方市場，將在 24 年交付 2 倍的產量。這符合我們——我們的客戶的期望，因為一些國家的強制要求開始增加。

And we don't have yet a big conversion of Grandpuits, which will bring 200,000 tonnes per year, but we are using part of the HVO we have in La Mède in order to convert it in some soft products to meet some expectations. It's a good business. And again, that's a transition. Transition is also, of course, in the marketing part on the electric mobility. We have a strategy we explained to you in September to concentrate most of our efforts, I would say, on EV hubs, on scarce prime locations, on motorways and urban locations. We have built, by the end of '23, 300, 350 hubs.

我們還沒有對 Grandpuits 進行大規模改造，每年將帶來 200,000 噸的產量，但我們正在使用 La Mède 擁有的部分 HVO，以便將其轉化為一些軟產品，以滿足一些期望。這是一筆好生意。再說一遍，這是一個過渡。當然，轉型也體現在電動車的行銷部分。我們在 9 月向大家解釋了一項策略，將我們的大部分精力集中在電動車樞紐、稀缺的黃金地段、高速公路和城市地區。到 23 年底，我們已經建造了 300、350 個樞紐。

We plan to have more than 600 in '24. And this also focusing as well on HPC because the customers, they don't like these low charging. It's maybe good in the streets of London or Paris. But honestly, if you want to really meet the real market for us is professional customers or, I would say, long distance customers, they are ready to spend 15 maybe 25 minutes more. So HPC, we have deployed already more than 1,000 HPC, and it will be more than 3,000. So rather that's a number of charging points, for us, the real metric is how many HPCs and hubs -- electric hubs do we deploy in Europe. It's more -- I think it makes more sense by just counting the number of charging points because the profitability of each of them will not be the same at the end of the day. And in terms of strategy. So that's what I could say.

我們計劃在 2024 年達到 600 多個。這也集中在 HPC 上，因為客戶不喜歡這些低收費。在倫敦或巴黎的街道上也許不錯。但老實說，如果你想真正滿足我們真正的市場是專業客戶，或者我想說的是長途客戶，他們準備多花 15 甚至 25 分鐘。那麼HPC，我們已經部署了1000多個HPC，而且還會超過3000個。因此，對我們來說，真正的衡量標準是充電點的數量，真正的指標是我們在歐洲部署了多少 HPC 和集線器——電力集線器。更重要的是——我認為僅計算充電點的數量更有意義，因為每個充電點的獲利能力最終不會相同。而在策略方面。這就是我能說的。

So I'm coming back to the share -- to our shareholders, which is the most important and the cash flow generation. So we anticipate in this environment at $80 Brent, $10 TTF and $50 European Refining Margin marker, we could answer some questions what we move this market, around $34 billion is in line with the $36 billion we delivered, you make the math with the sensitivity.

所以我回到股東的份額，這是最重要的，也是現金流的產生。因此，我們預計在這種環境下，布蘭特原油價格為80 美元，TTF 為10 美元，歐洲煉油利潤為50 美元，我們可以回答一些問題，我們將推動這個市場的發展，大約340 億美元與我們交付的360 億美元是一致的，你可以用敏感度來計算。

You are adding an additional growth of $500 million in power and $500 million in other businesses, and you will find $34 billion. So it's very in line with, I would say, our strategic plan and road map. We'll invest $17 billion, $18 billion. So we have a free cash flow around $17 billion. And the Board in that context has decided to continue to grow the dividend by 7%. The final dividend will be EUR 79 -- EUR 0.79 per share instead of the quarterly interim dividend of EUR 0.74. And this EUR 0.79 per share will be the next quarterly interim dividend which the Board will support. So that's for the dividend. And so this is -- I will come back on it in 1 minute. And on the buyback, we have announced that we'll maintain $2 billion for the next quarter, and that's $2 billion per quarter will remain, I would say, the base of the Board discussion for the coming quarters and next quarters in this type of environment.

如果再加上 5 億美元的電力成長和 5 億美元的其他業務成長，你會發現價值 340 億美元。所以我想說，這非常符合我們的策略計畫和路線圖。我們將投資170億美元、180億美元。因此，我們的自由現金流約為 170 億美元。在此背景下，董事會決定繼續將股利增加 7%。末期股息將為每股 79 歐元 - 0.79 歐元，而不是每股 0.74 歐元的季度中期股息。而每股 0.79 歐元將是董事會支持的下一季中期股息。這就是股息。所以這就是——我會在一分鐘後回來討論這個問題。關於回購，我們宣布下個季度將維持 20 億美元，我想說，每季 20 億美元仍將是董事會未來幾季和下幾季此類回購的討論基礎。環境。

And that's, I think, the next slide, which illustrates this, I would say, steady strategy or steady policy, I would say, as a shareholder distribution. We -- the quarterly dividend, which were at EUR 0.66 during 2019. 2020, no decrease. 2021, we used the balance sheet. You can see it on the chart in the middle, the gearing ratio went up in 2020 because we decided to use our balance sheet, we were -- in order to maintain this distribution policy. Has begun to grow in '22, then '23, 7%, again, 7% of '24. So an increase of 20% in the last 3 years. And that, as you know, we did not decrease this quarterly dividend for more than -- I was -- when I became CEO, it was 30 years, so today it's 40 years. And so it's one of the heritage we maintain. And the buyback, we are a little stubborn as well. We increased to $2 billion since the second quarter '22. So $2 billion, $2 billion, $2 billion, $2 billion, $2 billion. And so you can continue $2 billion, $2 billion, $2 billion.

我認為，這就是下一張投影片，它說明了這一點，我想說，穩定的策略或穩定的政策，我想說，作為股東分配。我們的季度股息，2019 年為 0.66 歐元。2020 年沒有減少。 2021年，我們使用了資產負債表。你可以在中間的圖表中看到，2020 年的資產負債比率上升了，因為我們決定使用我們的資產負債表，為了維持這個分配政策。 22 年開始成長，23 年成長 7%，24 年又成長 7%。所以過去3年成長了20%。如你所知，我們減少季度股息的時間並沒有超過我擔任執行長時的 30 年，所以今天是 40 年。所以這是我們維護的遺產之一。至於回購，我們也有點固執。自 2022 年第二季以來，我們的營收增加到了 20 億美元。所以20億美元，20億美元，20億美元，20億美元，20億美元。所以你可以繼續 20 億美元、20 億美元、20 億美元。

But we increased it in last quarter because we decided to give back part of the Canadian divestment proceeds to the shareholders as a sort of exceptional. But -- so it's very consistent. By the way, as the number of shares diminish, I would say the buyback per share is growing, in fact. Just even if the share is going up. And just one comment about the dividend, I didn't mention the 7%, we bought back in '23, 5.8%, 5.9% of our -- I would say, of our shares. So for me, it's the basis. As I always said, to return to shareholders, you need to at least increase the dividend by what you bought back. So the 6% were for me secured just because we have added 1% because there is a growth, it was a discussion of the Board but 7% because we've made 7%, it's consistent with what we could maintain on the long term.

但我們在上個季度增加了資金，因為我們決定將加拿大撤資的部分收益回饋給股東，作為例外。但是——所以它非常一致。順便說一句，隨著股票數量的減少，我想說每股回購實際上正在增​​加。即使份額上漲。關於股息的一個評論，我沒有提到我們在 23 年回購的 7%、5.8%、5.9%——我想說，我們的股票。所以對我來說，這是基礎。正如我常說的，要回報股東，你至少需要增加你回購的股利。因此，6% 對我來說是安全的，只是因為我們增加了1%，因為有成長，這是董事會的討論，但7% 是因為我們已經賺了7%，這與我們可以長期維持的水平一致。

And so that's the last slide because as I said, we know we have a gap in the multiple with our U.S. peers, but again, in terms of TSR, we are in the ballpark. Our ambition is to be able -- is to continue to convince the market that we -- so multiple of TotalEnergies should be higher. And that's why we continue to buy back despite the fact that the share at EUR 60 per share is more or less not far from the historic high, but we strongly believe the strategy will deliver more value and we demonstrate that we can do it while transitioning. And again, there is no contradiction. And so we hope to see that shareholder return to be translated in the company valuation in the coming months.

這是最後一張投影片，因為正如我所說，我們知道我們與美國同業的本益比有差距，但就股東總回報率而言，我們還是在大致範圍內。我們的目標是能夠——繼續讓市場相信我們——所以TotalEnergies 的倍數應該會更高。這就是為什麼我們繼續回購股票，儘管每股60 歐元的股價或多或少離歷史高點不遠，但我們堅信該策略將帶來更多價值，我們證明我們可以在轉型的同時做到這一點。再說一次，這並不矛盾。因此，我們希望看到股東回報在未來幾個月內轉化為公司估值。

And the last slide is to celebrate the 100 years, pioneers for 100 years, that is a logo, that is a slogan we have decided -- the motto we have decided to select. I will not comment all the photo only one, the first one in the top -- in the left top corner is the first well in Iraq. By the way, in Ratawi, I visited Ratawi and we discovered Ratawi, I discovered but Ratawi is back we don't know. It was discovered in 1938 by TotalEnergies teams and the wealth of discovery exists. The number one, the take a photo on it. Not this one in Kirkuk because it's a little unsafe region today.

最後一張投影片是為了慶祝100週年，先驅者100週年，這是一個標誌，這是我們決定的口號——我們決定選擇的座右銘。我不會評論所有照片，只有一張，第一張在頂部——左上角是伊拉克的第一口井。順便說一句，在拉塔威，我訪問了拉塔威，我們發現了拉塔威，我發現了，但拉塔威回來了，我們不知道。它是由 TotalEnergies 團隊於 1938 年發現的，並且存在著豐富的發現。第一，在上面拍張照片。基爾庫克的這個不是，因為今天這裡是一個有點不安全的地區。

So my adviser, my security guys don't go there, but in Ratawi as well, right? So we are back to our routes. The photo in the left bottom corner is Azul in Algeria, part of our history. You have Tyra in that mark. It's more recent history. You have Lapa in Brazil, more recent history as well. On the photo, the other ones and the location is in France for 2 of them. And you have also these small drones with a symbol of the technology that we -- of the technology-driven company and engineers that we use for measuring methane around all our assets today. So thank you for your attention, and now we can answer to your questions.

所以我的顧問、我的保全人員不會去那裡，但也會去拉塔威，對吧？所以我們回到了我們的路線。左下角的照片是阿爾及利亞的Azul，是我們歷史的一部分。泰拉就在那個標記裡。這是最近的歷史。巴西有拉帕，還有最近的歷史。照片上是其他的，其中兩個的地點是在法國。還有這些小型無人機，它們象徵著我們技術驅動的公司和工程師，我們今天用它們來測量我們所有資產周圍的甲烷。感謝您的關注，現在我們可以回答您的問題。

Irene Himona, Societe Generale. So Patrick, you've built the integrated power portfolio through M&A. You've been very active on that. Your targets are for gross capacity. Would you contemplate something a little bit more radical or different like bringing in a partner, selling down part of that portfolio like some of your peers have done?

艾琳希莫納，法國興業銀行。派崔克，您已經透過併購建立了整合電力產品組合。你在這方面一直非常積極。您的目標是總容量。您是否會考慮一些更激進或更不同的事情，例如引入合作夥伴，像您的一些同行所做的那樣出售部分投資組合？

And then secondly, on the buyback, the $2 billion quarterly buyback, your balance sheet is very ungeared now. If the environment were to deteriorate, and we've had tremendous volatility in recent years, how far would you lean into the balance sheet to sustain that buyback?

其次，在回購方面，20 億美元的季度回購，你的資產負債表現非常不適應。如果環境惡化，近年來我們經歷了巨大的波動，您會在多大程度上依靠資產負債表來維持回購？

Okay. First question. We do it, in fact. We don't have one partner, because it's not some -- but each asset, the policy is clear. We develop the assets when we are operator, 100%, but at COD, we divest 50% of them because I prefer, it's a question of management of risk, I prefer to have 2 times 50%, but onetime 100%. It's also a question of profitability.

好的。第一個問題。事實上，我們就是這麼做的。我們沒有一個合作夥伴，因為它不是一些——而是每一項資產，政策是明確的。當我們作為營運商時，我們開發資產，100%，但在COD，我們剝離其中的50%，因為我更喜歡，這是一個風險管理問題，我更喜歡擁有2 倍的50%，但一次100 %。這也是一個獲利能力的問題。

What is difficult is to find one partner for all the geographies. You have some people who are financial partners because we don't want to have too much people bothering our teams. We like to have financial partners. They love it. But it's not the same market when you are divesting 50% of an asset in Texas, when you go to Greece. So it's a different portfolio.

困難的是為所有地區找到一個合作夥伴。有些人是財務合作夥伴，因為我們不想有太多人打擾我們的團隊。我們喜歡有金融合作夥伴。他們喜歡它。但當你在德克薩斯州剝離 50% 的資產時，當你去希臘時，這不是同一個市場。所以這是一個不同的投資組合。

Even if we reach a point where, as we increase the capacity by 6 gigawatts, we have more gigawatts to farm down. So we will need to find a way to industrialize, I would say, the way we farm down. So [it's quite easy --] that's an easy task. If you go asset by asset, so for example, in '24, I think we have 2 gigawatts, something like that, in new assets, or 1.2 gigawatts in Texas.

即使我們達到了這樣的程度：當我們將容量增加 6 吉瓦時，我們還有更多吉瓦可供發電。因此，我們需要找到一種工業化的方式，我想說，就像我們耕作的方式一樣。所以[這很容易—]這是一項簡單的任務。如果你逐一查看資產，例如，在 24 年，我認為我們的新資產有 2 吉瓦，類似的數量，或者德克薩斯州有 1.2 吉瓦。

So we'll make a package and find -- and by the way, it's better to farm down, because then you have larger institutions which are interested. When it's one asset, sometimes it's more, they don't want to spend too much time.

因此，我們將製作一個包並找到 - 順便說一句，最好是向下種植，因為這樣你就有了感興趣的更大的機構。當它是一項資產時，有時它會更多，他們不想花太多時間。

So we try to do it like that. We have some assets as well. Greece is a different country, but we [integrated from Total Eren] or in South Iberia. So we need to be active on that and to find a way to industrialize it. It's not one partner. But again, that's very good. I prefer to have some partners as well in order to challenge us tomorrow in the way we -- it's the same, I would say, philosophy that we have.

所以我們嘗試這樣做。我們也有一些資產。希臘是一個不同的國家，但我們[從Total Eren整合]還是在南伊比利亞。因此，我們需要積極進行這方面的工作，並找到將其工業化的方法。這不是一個夥伴。但話又說回來，這很好。我更喜歡有一些合作夥伴，以便明天以我們的方式挑戰我們——我想說，我們擁有相同的理念。

We've done one divestment we announced in -- on Seagreen, an offshore wind in Scotland, where PTTEP wanted to have experience in offshore wind. They like TotalEnergies. You've seen, I can tell you, if you make the rate of return of the M&A activity, acquiring this 25% from SSE in 2020 and selling in 2023 to PTTEP, is more than 15% return.

我們已經完成了我們宣布的一項撤資——Seagreen，這是蘇格蘭的一家離岸風電公司，PTTEP 希望在那裡擁有海上風電的經驗。他們喜歡TotalEnergies。你已經看到了，我可以告訴你，如果你計算併購活動的回報率，2020年從上交所收購這25%並在2023年出售給PTTEP，回報率超過15%。

So you can make this type of activity. It's good because we don't want to be just -- we want to share the risk between different assets, and we'll continue that philosophy.

所以你可以進行這種類型的活動。這很好，因為我們不想只是——我們想在不同資產之間分擔風險，我們將繼續這個理念。

It's a very good question. I think my message was positive. I think we have a good band. The slide is for purpose, a slide that I show you about the dividend, the gearing. And it's true that at 5% gearing, as we've done in 2020, the situation was much more critical in 2020 than today at 5% gearing.

這是一個非常好的問題。我認為我的信息是正面的。我認為我們有一支很好的樂團。這張投影片是有目的的，我向您展示了有關股息和負債的幻燈片。確實，正如我們在 2020 年所做的那樣，在 5% 的負債率下，2020 年的情況比今天在 5% 的負債率下要嚴重得多。

And when I mentioned that we announced $2 billion for the next quarter, but we -- $2 billion is the basis for the coming quarters. I think it's also because I have in mind that we can use the balance sheet. And unless the price going down again to something like less than $50, we can resist. So that's true.

當我提到我們宣布下一季將投入 20 億美元，但我們——20 億美元是未來幾季的基礎。我認為這也是因為我想到我們可以使用資產負債表。除非價格再次下降到 50 美元以下，否則我們可以抵制。所以這是真的。

But for me, so as a discussion of the Board, so we find in the press release there is a positive message. But we don't want to commit about $20 billion of buyback because we have no visibility. But fundamentally, the balance sheet gives us quite a strong support to this policy and to be -- the word -- important word, is steady policy, and either on the dividend 7%, 7%, or on the buyback. And so you could hear $2 billion, $2 billion, $2 billion for several quarters.

但對我來說，作為董事會的討論，我們在新聞稿中發現了正面的訊息。但我們不想承諾約 200 億美元的回購，因為我們沒有可見性。但從根本上來說，資產負債表為我們提供了對這項政策的強有力的支持，而且重要的是，穩定的政策，要么是股息 7%、7%，要么是回購。所以你可以聽到幾個季度的 20 億美元、20 億美元、20 億美元。

We can go this table, Oswald, gentlemen here.

我們可以去這張桌子了，奧斯華，先生們。

Oswald Clint, Bernstein. I wanted to ask on LNG, and I wanted to ask about appetite into your portfolio from new demand from Biden's policy recently from the Red Sea disruption. I think you answered that already by saying China is having some discussions with you, et cetera.

奧斯瓦爾德·克林特，伯恩斯坦。我想問有關液化天然氣的問題，我想問一下您的投資組合對最近因紅海擾亂而採取的拜登政策的新需求有何興趣。我想你已經回答了這個問題，說中國正在與你進行一些討論等等。

So perhaps I'll change it to, are you, I mean, really leveraging -- and I know Stephane is behind me, but leveraging the LNG trading and optimization piece, I mean, a couple of your peers this last quarter here in Europe, even in Texas, are now delivering gas and LNG trading profits on top.

所以也許我會把它改成，我的意思是，你真的在​​利用——我知道斯蒂芬在我身後，但利用液化天然氣交易和優化部分，我的意思是，上個季度在歐洲的幾個同行即使在德州，現在也提供天然氣和液化天然氣貿易利潤。

It doesn't look like you captured a lot. It looks like the others are a bit more aggressive, potentially a lot more capital financing is being allocated to trading, and it's coming through. So perhaps your business is more tightly controlled. Just to get your thoughts on, are you happy with that? Is there more you could do around the LNG optimization piece, please?

看起來你抓到的東西不多。看起來其他人更激進一些，可能有更多的資本融資被分配給交易，而且它正在實現。因此，也許您的業務受到更嚴格的控制。只是想了解一下您的想法，您對此滿意嗎？請問在液化天然氣優化方面您還可以做更多的事情嗎？

I'm very happy with what we do. And by the way, maybe when you look to our peers this quarter is better, the previous quarter was not so good. So we are more consistent in the trading part quarterly after quarterly. We know our policy, and Stephane can elaborate, but we have no -- we are, honestly, I think, we are doing a lot with that. It's the core of the -- we are managing 40 million tons. So of course, a part of it. And the number of spot deals which have been done around 6 million tons.

我對我們所做的事情感到非常滿意。順便說一句，也許當你觀察我們的同行時，本季會更好，上一季則不太好。所以我們每季的交易部分都比較一致。我們知道我們的政策，史蒂芬可以詳細闡述，但我們沒有——老實說，我認為我們正在這方面做很多事情。這是我們正在管理的 4000 萬噸的核心。當然，這是其中的一部分。現貨成交量約600萬噸。

So again, it's quite active and our traders are doing a lot around it. But I will deliver the message that they can do better. When I see their bonus, I think they have done well. You can ask to Jean-Pierre what he thinks about that.

再說一遍，它非常活躍，我們的交易員也圍繞著它做了很多事情。但我會傳達這樣的訊息：他們可以做得更好。當我看到他們的獎金時，我認為他們做得很好。你可以詢問讓-皮埃爾對此有何看法。

No. I think, honestly, we are not more -- we are very active on that. It's completely in the business model of LNG trading. Again, we benefited from the fact -- we have this policy to hedge most of the portfolio 1 year in advance. It's true. But because we have quite an open position, and I think it's -- so we benefited from that in '23. Next year, $7 billion.

不，老實說，我認為我們並沒有更多——我們在這方面非常積極。這完全是液化天然氣貿易的商業模式。我們再次受益於這樣一個事實——我們有這項政策可以提前一年對沖大部分投資組合。這是真的。但因為我們有一個相當開放的職位，我認為這是——所以我們在 23 年從中受益。明年，70 億美元。

Again, I think one message of the slide, by the way, when you look to the improvement of what we were delivering in '21 to '23, it's quite a big improvement. And it's coming fundamentally, in particular, the European position. In Europe, we have access, we control 16% of regas capacities. We have added these 2 FSRUs. So it help us to trade around that.

順便說一句，我認為幻燈片傳達的一個訊息是，當你看到我們在 21 至 23 年交付的改進時，你會發現這是一個相當大的改進。從根本上來說，這是來自歐洲的立場。在歐洲，我們擁有並控制 16% 的再氣化能力。我們新增了這 2 個 FSRU。所以它可以幫助我們圍繞這一點進行交易。

So maybe we make less noise when we have good results, but we don't have any bad results in the quarter. So I'm fine. No, we are fine.

因此，當我們取得好的業績時，我們可能會發出更少的噪音，但我們本季沒有任何糟糕的業績。所以我很好。不，我們很好。

And maybe my second question is just on Iraq, 100 years. When you spoke about your new Iraqi project there, did you say it's also a $30 per barrel cash margin?

也許我的第二個問題只是關於伊拉克，100 年。當您談到您在那裡的新伊拉克項目時，您是否說這也是每桶 30 美元的現金利潤？

It's much more than that.

遠不止於此。

Okay. And really, the bigger question was that my favorite chart is the one on cash flow relative to the oil price. Is there anything as we look out for the next 5 years that would be decreasing the slope of that with production sharing contracts, slopes in LNG contracts?

好的。事實上，更大的問題是我最喜歡的圖表是現金流相對於油價的圖表。我們在未來 5 年中是否有什麼事情會降低生產分成合約、液化天然氣合約的斜率？

It's a good question. We have done it in the last 2 years, we can project it. I think it's a good -- Olivier, which is behind the door there, he is expert of making this type of charts. He is super good economist and engineer.

這是一個好問題。我們在過去兩年裡已經做到了，我們可以預測它。我認為這是一個很好的——奧利維爾，他就在門後面，他是製作這類圖表的專家。他是超級優秀的經濟學家和工程師。

No. But I think the point, but we can demonstrate that on the portfolio. Fundamentally, our new portfolio is much more accretive to (inaudible) because we look to projects and we select the projects to find this, I would say, to improve not only -- we were perceived, as I said, as a resilient company, we want to have also the upside. And Iraq is one of them, by the way, where we have quite a good upside.

不。但我認為這一點很重要，但我們可以在投資組合上證明這一點。從根本上說，我們的新投資組合更具增值性（聽不清楚），因為我們尋找項目並選擇項目來找到這一點，我想說，不僅是為了改進——正如我所說，我們被認為是一家有彈性的公司，我們也希望擁有正面的一面。順便說一句，伊拉克就是其中之一，我們在那裡有相當好的優勢。

But I take the point and we can illustrate that maybe September next strategy. We had that slide. It was too complex last time. So we need to prepare it in a better way. But this one, I think, that we had, which has been imagined by our colleagues, it's a good illustration about this change of slope and which means higher upside to capture from the brand.

但我同意這一點，我們可以說明也許是九月的下一個策略。我們有那張幻燈片。上次太複雜了。所以我們需要以更好的方式來準備。但我認為，我們的同事所想像的這個，很好地說明了這種斜率的變化，這意味著可以從品牌中獲得更高的優勢。

We can go Michele.

我們可以去米歇爾。

Congratulations on the strong results and being almost net debt-free. I wanted to ask 2 questions. The first one is more industry-wide. We are getting a lot of very conflicting messages on EV uptake across the world. On one side, it seems to be accelerating in China, but then it's decelerating in Europe and in the U.S. as some of the more generous incentives roll off.

祝賀您取得了強勁的業績並且幾乎沒有淨債務。我想問2個問題。第一個是更廣泛的行業範圍。我們收到了許多關於全球電動車普及情況的非常矛盾的訊息。一方面，中國的成長似乎正在加速，但隨著一些更慷慨的激勵措施的實施，歐洲和美國的成長正在減速。

What are you seeing on the ground? And does that in any way change your strategy in terms of EV charging?

你在地上看到什麼？這是否會改變您在電動車充電方面的策略？

And then secondly, I wanted to ask you on LNG. You clearly hedge 12 months forward your spot LNG exposure. But I was wondering, is there a way to quantify the sensitivity to spot LNG prices beyond that 12-month of hedging?

其次，我想問你關於液化天然氣的問題。您顯然對沖了遠期 12 個月的現貨液化天然氣風險。但我想知道，除了 12 個月的對沖之外，是否有辦法量化對現貨液化天然氣價格的敏感度？

What is important in our portfolio is the difference between TTF and GKM, I think. You can elaborate on that, Stephane, the second question, maybe you can answer too.

我認為，我們的產品組合中最重要的是 TTF 和 GKM 之間的差異。你可以詳細說明一下，Stephane，第二個問題，也許你也可以回答。

On the first one, that's one of the unknown. But we know, in fact, our strategy is centered on Europe, the EU, which has a clear plan, 2035. And in EU, it's fundamentally the 5, the core of the countries, France, Germany, Netherlands, the U.K., Spain.

第一個是未知的。但我們知道，事實上，我們的戰略是以歐洲為中心的，歐盟，它有一個明確的計劃，2035年。而在歐盟，它基本上是5個核心國家，法國、德國、荷蘭、英國、西班牙。

In the U.S., I agree, but when you go to the U.S., you don't see a big move. And when you observe in the streets and don't see a huge move. So more -- we are more careful.

在美國，我同意，但是當你去美國時，你不會看到有什麼重大的變化。當你在街上觀察時，並沒有看到巨大的舉動。因此，我們更加小心。

So we are more on the EV strategy is more Europe, where there is a clear regulation plan, where we think that it will happen, maybe not as quick as before, but as the government seems to be, even if they have less money, but they will be obliged. At the end, maybe (technical difficulty) of the car manufacturers, maybe there will be plenty of Chinese EV cars in the streets in Europe. That's the trend today, but it's not my issue to me.

因此，我們更關注電動車策略，更多的是歐洲，那裡有一個明確的監管計劃，我們認為它會發生，也許不會像以前那麼快，但正如政府似乎所做的那樣，即使他們的錢更少，但他們將有義務。最後，也許汽車製造商的（技術難度），也許歐洲街頭會有大量的中國電動車。這是今天的趨勢，但這不是我的問題。

So for us, EV equals Europe where we have a clear, I would say, with those regulations. But I think, honestly, this transition is not only a question of offer. If you don't have an incentive on the demand and a clear, I would say, policymakers, policy -- low chance that people will accept. It's a revolution -- it's kind of a revolution.

因此，對我們來說，電動車等於歐洲，我想說，我們有明確的法規。但老實說，我認為這種轉變不只是一個offer的問題。如果你沒有對需求的激勵，也沒有明確的政策制定者和政策，那麼人們接受的可能性就很低。這是一場革命——這是一場革命。

You ask people to spend more money to get a car to have the same function, but I think, why should they spend more money? Tell me. So we have to lower -- they have to lower the cost of the cars and somewhere to be supported, so without policy -- so you're right.

你要求人們花更多的錢去買一輛具有相同功能的汽車，但我想，他們為什麼要花更多的錢？告訴我。所以我們必須降低——他們必須降低汽車的成本和需要支持的地方，所以沒有政策——所以你是對的。

China is good, but China is using their own market in order to -- but it's, again, more for car manufacturing industry, is a challenge to bring all these cars to deploy their manufacturing capacities on the planet, in fact, which is what is happening, in fact, in particular, in Europe.

中國很好，但中國正在利用自己的市場，但對於汽車製造業來說，讓所有這些汽車在地球上部署其製造能力是一個挑戰，事實上，這就是事實上，尤其是在歐洲，這種情況正在發生。

So for us, does it change? No, fundamentally. But we will not deploy EV in Africa, where we have retail today, it's Africa. I will continue to develop our, I would say, traditional business in Africa. In Europe, you see that change, even if we are happy with the position in France. Again, as I commented, we sold our retail station in Germany and the Netherlands to Couche-Tard because the financial proposal was for us quite a good one. So we had to -- in a way to change.

那麼對我們來說，它會改變嗎？不，從根本上來說。但我們不會在非洲部署電動車，我們今天在那裡有零售店，那就是非洲。我想說，我將繼續發展我們在非洲的傳統業務。在歐洲，你會看到這種變化，即使我們對法國的情況感到滿意。正如我所說，我們將德國和荷蘭的零售站賣給了 Couche-Tard，因為財務建議對我們來說非常好。所以我們必須——以某種方式改變。

In terms of CapEx, it's a matter today of $150 million, $200 million per year. So it's not a huge commitment compared to what we spent. So Europe, yes. The rest, I will observe, just to go in your way. And what I'm observing is again, let's see, depending on the policies. And particularly in the U.S., I have few doubts.

就資本支出而言，今天的資本支出為 1.5 億美元，每年 2 億美元。因此，與我們的花費相比，這並不是一個巨大的承諾。所以歐洲，是的。其餘的，我會觀察，只是為了你的方式。我再次觀察到，讓我們看看，這取決於政策。尤其是在美國，我對此毫不懷疑。

Stephane should answer. Sorry. Stephane, please, answer.

史蒂芬應該回答。對不起。史蒂芬，請回答。

Yes. On your question, so our LNG portfolio is globally a mix of long-term supply coming from our assets for third party and of long-term sales, mostly in Asia. So if we look at that, we purchased fixed costs and then (inaudible) and we sell mostly Brent and TTF, GKM. And as we mentioned already in the past, globally, our portfolio is around 70%, 80% more long-term Brent and the rest is TTF, GKM. By the way, as we do in electricity, where we try to place that 70% long-term fixed, 30% merchant.

是的。關於你的問題，我們的液化天然氣投資組合是全球範圍內來自我們向第三方資產提供的長期供應和長期銷售（主要在亞洲）的組合。因此，如果我們看一下，我們購買了固定成本，然後（聽不清楚）我們主要出售布蘭特原油和 TTF、GKM。正如我們過去已經提到的，在全球範圍內，我們的投資組合大約有 70%，長期布蘭特原油佔 80%，其餘的是 TTF、GKM。順便說一句，正如我們在電力領域所做的那樣，我們嘗試將 70% 的長期固定資金、30% 的商人資金。

And the last point which is important is the fact that we can sell either GKM or TTF because -- and we have the flexibility to choose our index because of the supply logistics chain that we have with the regas capacity and the vessels.

最後一點很重要，我們可以出售 GKM 或 TTF，因為我們擁有具有再氣化能力和船舶的供應物流鏈，因此我們可以靈活地選擇我們的指數。

So we arbitrate between both.

所以我們在兩者之間進行仲裁。

So we arbitrate between both.

所以我們在兩者之間進行仲裁。

LNG tankers.

液化天然氣油輪。

Martijn, go ahead.

馬丁，繼續吧。

Two questions, if I may. First of all, a slightly technical modeling question. But in terms of modeling the balance sheet for the next couple of quarters, I was wondering if you could say a few words about how much of the working capital that was sort of released in the fourth quarter will build up over the next couple of quarters. I think you said that some of it was sort of a bit of a one-off.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。首先，一個稍微技術性的建模問題。但在對未來幾季的資產負債表進行建模方面，我想知道您是否可以談談第四季度釋放的營運資金將在接下來的幾個季度積累多少。我想你說過其中有些是一次性的。

And then secondly, I wanted to ask about refining. Because I get the sort of $50 to $60 per ton sort of base case, but I was wondering what your views were about sort of the risks around that, in the sense that, if you do global refining analysis, you get to the conclusion that, market should soften a little bit. But then again, on the other hand, like all the capacity that's being built is in the East, so the Atlantic Basin is actually quite short of products.

其次，我想問提煉的問題。因為我得到了每噸50 至60 美元的基本情況，但我想知道您對圍繞該風險的看法有何看法，從某種意義上說，如果您進行全球煉油分析，您會得出這樣的結論： ，市場應該會稍微走軟。但另一方面，就像所有正在建造的產能都在東部一樣，大西洋盆地實際上非常缺乏產品。

We have all the freight issues, and the freight issues support the Atlantic base refining margins. We stumble from disruption to disruption. All these refineries are old. It's cold weather, we have disruptions. It's hot weather, we have disruptions. Couldn't we end up in a situation where actually this turns out to be surprisingly tight and the risks to that are actually to the upside?

我們有所有的運費問題，運費問題支撐著大西洋基地的煉油利潤。我們在顛覆中跌跌撞撞。所有這些煉油廠都很舊了。天氣寒冷，我們的工作受到干擾。天氣炎熱，我們的工作受到干擾。難道我們最終會不會陷入這樣一種情況：事實上，這實際上是令人驚訝的緊張，而且風險實際上是向上的？

You are right to separate both. Having said that -- and it's good if we have -- we took an assumption of $50 per ton. If it's $80, I'm happy. You have the sensitivity, I think it's $500 million for $10 per ton. So again, maybe we are a little cautious. We see some softening in the market, because, again, price -- crude price remain high.

你把兩者分開是對的。話雖如此，我們假設價格為每噸 50 美元，如果有的話那就太好了。如果是80美元我就很高興了。你有敏感性，我認為每噸 10 美元就是 5 億美元。再說一次，也許我們有點謹慎。我們看到市場有些疲軟，因為原油價格仍然很高。

But you're right, our fundamental analysis, it's true that on the Atlantic Basin you have some bottlenecks in the system, the famous Jones Act in particular and all these type of things, which help the margins. But there is also an element of the Russian system in that, which begins -- the market begin to absorb it at a certain point. So we have to be a little -- I'm a little cautious about it, but that's what we observed.

但你是對的，我們的基本面分析，確實在大西洋盆地，系統中存在一些瓶頸，特別是著名的瓊斯法案以及所有這些類型的事情，這有助於提高利潤率。但俄羅斯體系中也有一個要素，那就是市場在某個時刻開始吸收它。所以我們必須有點——我對此有點謹慎，但這就是我們觀察到的。

So I share your view, but up to which point can we quantify the upside, that's more complex. That's the difficulty. It's margins of different products. And again, the last year also supported by the fact that the jet fuel recovery was -- so jet fuel margins were quite good. So jet fuel recovery is down now. So we are more in, I would say, balance and normal growth, is not this hike linked to the recovery that we had before.

所以我同意你的觀點，但我們可以量化到什麼程度的好處，這是更複雜的。這就是困難所在。這是不同產品的利潤。同樣，去年也得到了航空燃油回收率這一事實的支持，因此航空燃油利潤率相當不錯。所以現在航空燃油回收率下降了。因此，我想說，我們更多的是平衡和正常成長，這次升息與我們之前的復甦無關。

On the working capital, I would say, $3 billion, no, more or less? Yes, something like that, I think. Because honestly, I will tell you, the story is the following. We had -- last year, we had a release of $3 billion because of margin growth. So we are expecting to see the $3 billion being recovered. We struggled during the year to see them. They came in the last quarter. We had more than that, the last quarter was a bit around globally $5 billion. But out of the 5, 2 are clearly exceptional.

關於營運資金，我會說，30億美元，不，多還是少？是的，我想是這樣的。因為老實說，我會告訴你，故事如下。去年，由於利潤成長，我們釋放了 30 億美元。因此，我們預計 30 億美元將被追回。這一年我們費了好大勁才見到他們。他們是在最後一個季度來的。我們的資金不止於此，上個季度的全球價值約為 50 億美元。但在這 5 個中，有 2 個顯然是例外。

It's linked to the taxation we should pay on the Couche-Tard deal, capital gain tax that we didn't pay, we need to pay it. And it's linked to part of these exceptional taxes but which we have put in Europe on refining. I don't know if you know this war taxes, which has built a taxation, which will be paid, in fact, in '24. So $2 billion of extra working capital, I don't consider them as -- the $3 billion came and go back and forth, so we could expect them to be released again during the year and coming back by the end of the year. That's the anticipation.

它與我們應該為庫什-塔德交易繳納的稅款有關，我們沒有繳納的資本利得稅，我們需要繳納。這與我們在歐洲針對煉油徵收的部分特殊稅收有關。我不知道你是否知道戰爭稅，它已經建立了一項稅收，事實上，將在 24 年繳納。因此，20 億美元的額外營運資金，我不認為它們是——30 億美元來來去去，所以我們可以預期它們會在今年再次釋放，並在年底前回來。這就是期待。

And of course, we will continue to put pressure on the -- on our manager to make the working cap as well as possible because...

當然，我們將繼續向我們的經理施加壓力，以盡可能提高工作上限，因為…

We want to come back -- you want us to give us back of $3 billion, they gave us $5 billion, so almost $6 billion, so I'm -- don't put too much question. So that's good.

我們想要回來——你希望我們歸還 30 億美元，他們給了我們 50 億美元，所以幾乎是 60 億美元，所以我——不要提出太多問題。所以這樣很好。

No, but it's -- so there is a little exceptional there, $2 billion, I said, which makes 1 point of gearing, I would say. If you want to translate it in -- compared to what you said, we have $2 billion, which came at the end of the year, which could disappear. But I hope the year can also be executed in a good way and we'll have again some cash flow, which will strengthen the balance sheet.

不，但它是——所以那裡有一點特殊，我說的是 20 億美元，我想說，這構成了 1 個槓桿點。如果你想翻譯一下——與你所說的相比，我們有 20 億美元，這是在年底到來的，這可能會消失。但我希望今年也能以良好的方式執行，我們將再次擁有一些現金流，這將加強資產負債表。

We can go there. Lucas?

我們可以去那裡。盧卡斯？

Lucas, BNP Exane. Two, if I might, as well. The first was just on divestments and whether you've got -- last year was a very large year for divestments. There's a lot going on in the business in terms of organic investment now as you build up in LNG, you start to build more aggressively at high-grading the upstream, obviously, integrated power. So I just wondered what you're thinking in terms of scale of divestments this year, absolute figure as you move towards that net $17 billion to $18 billion.

盧卡斯，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。如果可以的話，還有兩個。第一個是關於撤資，去年是撤資規模非常大的一年。現在，隨著液化天然氣業務的發展，該業務在有機投資方面發生了很多事情，您開始更積極地建造高等級的上游，顯然是綜合電力。所以我只是想知道您對今年撤資規模的看法，即當您朝著 170 億至 180 億美元淨資產邁進時的絕對數字。

And the second question, Patrick, I guess, is a little more personal. It's a big year for -- centenary for Total. It's also quite a big year for you in some respects in that this is year 10. And I'm conscious of amongst all the assets, et cetera, this company has, you're also a very large asset. The question is really how you're thinking about your own lifecycle progression. I know Thierry Desmarest was CEO for 12 years. We hope you're with us for a lot longer. But just thoughts on where you're at, Patrick?

我想，第二個問題，派崔克，是更私人的問題。對道達爾百年慶典來說，今年是重要的一年。從某些方面來說，這對你來說也是相當重要的一年，因為今年是第十年。我意識到，在這家公司擁有的所有資產等中，你也是一筆非常大的資產。問題實際上是您如何思考自己的生命週期進展。我知道 Thierry Desmarest 擔任執行長已有 12 年。我們希望您與我們在一起的時間更長。但只是想想你現在在哪裡，派崔克？

Thierry was 15 years.

蒂埃里 15 歲。

I thought it was 12 CEO and 15 Chairman.

我以為是12位CEO和15位董事長。

But on this personal note, I said to the Board, as long as they are for, I will continue the job, as long as you consider that I'm positive for the company. The Board has decided to ask me to continue to renew my mandate, it has been announced in September, for the next 3 years. So I will continue. And again, I think I'm committed to the company. And I think what we do is we have a very clear strategy. I'm happy to execute it. I'm part of this -- it's not only me, but all the executive committee, which is executing that.

但就我個人而言，我對董事會說，只要他們同意，我就會繼續這份工作，只要你們認為我對公司有正面的一面。董事會已於 9 月宣布，決定要求我在未來 3 年繼續延長我的任期。所以我會繼續。再說一次，我認為我對公司忠誠。我認為我們所做的是我們有一個非常明確的策略。我很高興執行它。我是其中的一部分——不僅是我，還有所有執行委員會，都在執行這項工作。

So I'm there. I will continue to be in the landscape of this company for many years. Okay? But we still have a lot of things to do.

所以我就在那裡。我將繼續在這家公司工作很多年。好的？但我們還有很多事情要做。

Then on the first one. In fact, we've done a lot in divestment. That's true, $4 billion, $4.5 billion from Canada, Couche-Tard $7 billion. But we acquired a lot as well. You should not -- it was a huge year, in fact. Because (inaudible) when you add -- [NFE NFS]. When you add all of that, we divested $7 billion, we had $6 billion. I said to my teams, we don't -- we have done a lot. In fact, we invested $17 billion. And when you acquire $6 billion and you divest $7 billion, it's at the end, we moved $30 billion of assets, which is an historic year.

然後是第一個。事實上，我們在撤資方面做了很多工作。確實如此，40 億美元，45 億美元來自加拿大，Couche-Tard 70 億美元。但我們也收穫了很多。你不應該——事實上，這是重要的一年。因為（聽不清楚）當您新增 - [NFE NFS] 時。當你把所有這些加起來時，我們剝離了 70 億美元，我們擁有 60 億美元。我對我的團隊說，我們沒有——我們已經做了很多。事實上，我們投資了 170 億美元。當你收購 60 億美元並剝離 70 億美元時，最後我們轉移了 300 億美元的資產，這是歷史性的一年。

And so it's quite an active company. It's very active. And I think we will continue to do that. Because if I want to high grade, I need also to finance it. And I'm stick -- I think one of my big lesson is the net CapEx investment maximum $18 billion is a good metric for us. It's a good metric because you see the -- all the balance we generate, $34 billion, we invest $17 billion, we delivered $16 billion. So it's a good balance.

所以這是一家相當活躍的公司。它非常活躍。我認為我們將繼續這樣做。因為如果我想要取得高分，我還需要資助。我堅持下去——我認為我的一個重要教訓是，淨資本支出投資上限為 180 億美元對我們來說是一個很好的衡量標準。這是一個很好的衡量標準，因為你會看到——我們產生的所有餘額為 340 億美元，我們投資了 170 億美元，我們交付了 160 億美元。所以這是一個很好的平衡。

And so one way is to continue to divest. Divestments will come part of it, by the way, from what discussed about the farm-down of renewables. Because we -- it's not a divestment, it's more we divest because we reinvest part of it. So when we have, at the end, $5 billion, it's -- in fact, it's plus $7 billion, minus $2 billion, et cetera.

因此一種方法是繼續剝離。順便說一句，撤資將是其中的一部分，來自有關再生能源農場的討論。因為我們——這不是撤資，我們更多的是撤資，因為我們將其中的一部分進行了再投資。因此，當我們最終擁有 50 億美元時，事實上，它加上 70 億美元，減去 20 億美元，等等。

So we have to -- this machine of divestments has to be put in place. And that's one of the target for Stephane teams in the year. But we have also some assets in the Upstream, but it's no secret. But in Nigeria, for example, these onshore assets are complex. We want to divest our share of SPDC, and we are looking to reshape the portfolio.

所以我們必須──這個撤資機制必須到位。這是史蒂芬團隊今年的目標之一。但我們在上游也有一些資產，但這不是什麼秘密。但例如在奈及利亞，這些陸上資產很複雜。我們希望剝離 SPDC 的股份，並尋求重塑投資組合。

So it's a permanent, for me, good philosophy to oblige ourselves. We buy in Malaysia, where do we divest on the other side? By the way, in -- you noticed that in '24, we'll benefit from the divestment to Couche-Tard to the Netherlands and Belgium because we didn't sell it in '23 but in '24.

因此，對我來說，約束自己是一個永久的良好哲學。我們在馬來西亞買入，我們在另一邊哪裡撤資？順便說一句，您注意到，在 24 年，我們將受益於將 Couche-Tard 撤資到荷蘭和比利時，因為我們不是在 23 年而是在 24 年出售了它。

So I think we are fine. And the level of activity should be around about $5 billion on one side, $5 billion on the other side, when I think to -- and I think it's part of the strategy, is also to benefit from -- and we have the balance sheet to do that.

所以我認為我們很好。一方面活動水準應約為 50 億美元，另一方面應為 50 億美元，當我認為——而且我認為這是策略的一部分，也是從中受益——而且我們有資產負債表時要做到這一點。

Not too big, big M&A. I don't -- I'm not consolidator of share in the U.S., I'm not there, so -- but I can perfectly understand what our peers have done. But we are not in that business. But we can -- we have the balance sheet in order to be, I would say, to be active on both sides, both selling and divesting. That's the philosophy. That's I would say -- what I would say.

規模不大，是大型併購。我不——我不是美國的份額整合者，我不在那裡，所以——但我可以完全理解我們的同行所做的事情。但我們不從事這項業務。但我們可以——我想說，我們擁有資產負債表，以便在出售和撤資方面都積極主動。這就是哲學。這就是我要說的——我要說的。

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. The 100-year milestone is a great chance to look forward and back as well. When you think about the structure of the industry, it's been -- it has been remarkably stable for the next -- for the last 20 years. How do you see it going forward? Because it does seem that we've got a lot more volatility, a lot more regionalization. And almost back to that chart of CFO versus brand. Is there opportunity for that to kind of diverge more as we go forward?

我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞‧雷恩福斯。 100 年的里程碑也是一個展望和回顧的絕佳機會。當你思考這個產業的結構時，你會發現，在過去的 20 年裡，它在接下來的時間裡一直非常穩定。您如何看待未來的發展？因為我們的波動性似乎較大，區域化程度也較高。幾乎回到財務長與品牌的圖表。隨著我們的前進，這種情況是否有機會出現更大的分歧？

And then if I think basically a little bit looking back this story around the safety side, there's obviously changes in processes that are being put in place. Do you think you can make those changes both quickly and safely in terms of just the -- there's going to be more and more processes that need changing in a world where there's more digitalization?

然後，如果我認為基本上圍繞著安全方面回顧這個故事，就會發現正在實施的流程明顯發生了變化。您是否認為您可以快速、安全地做出這些改變——在一個數位化程度更高的世界中，將會有越來越多的流程需要改變？

Okay, safety. It's a little frustrating to discover that you need to have a fatality to put into question -- honestly, this example is a good example. Myself, I'm a little frustrated, but it's because we have a fatality, but we take the topic and we say, I remember, I said, you stop and we find a way, and it was provocative from us at the top, why are we obliged to put somebody in these reactors? The reality is that it's a whole industry is working. It's the most efficient in terms of cost because it's shorter. And we have the feeling it's safe. But it's not safe.

好的，安全。發現你需要對死亡進行質疑，這有點令人沮喪——老實說，這個例子就是一個很好的例子。我自己，我有點沮喪，但這是因為我們有宿命，但我們抓住這個話題，我們說，我記得，我說，你停下來，我們找到辦法，這是我們高層的挑釁，為什麼我們必須把人放進這些反應爐裡？現實情況是，整個產業都在發揮作用。就成本而言，它是最有效的，因為它更短。我們感覺這裡很安全。但這並不安全。

And I think, okay, it's a decision. It's where safety is a value. That means that maybe it's longer to go with the water and et cetera, but at least you'd have nobody inside a reactor, I feel much more comfortable.

我想，好吧，這是一個決定。這就是安全有價值的地方。這意味著也許與水在一起的時間會更長，但至少反應爐裡沒有人，我感覺舒服多了。

And it's good to see that we are sharing that and our colleagues in the central big peers are thinking on the same way like us. They want to -- So that's true, but is quite frustrating, but we could have done that before. The reality -- and I think at least what is positive, that we have reacted in a way which (inaudible) because the initial reaction, no, there is no other way.

很高興看到我們正在分享這一點，我們中央大同行的同事也和我們有同樣的想法。他們想要——這是真的，但這很令人沮喪，但我們以前就可以做到這一點。現實－我認為至少是正面的，我們的反應方式是（聽不清楚），因為最初的反應是，不，沒有其他方式。

No, no, we told them, if you give us a target, no human being inside these reactors, what do you do? They came with a solution. Honestly, I'm not an expert on this type of technologies. And we say, okay, let's push on it. Yes, it's a little more costly because it takes a little more time. Okay. It's an arbitration. But I feel more safe.

不，不，我們告訴他們，如果你給我們一個目標，但這些反應爐內沒有人，你會怎麼做？他們帶來了一個解決方案。老實說，我不是這類技術的專家。我們說，好吧，讓我們繼續努力。是的，它的成本更高一些，因為它需要更多的時間。好的。這是仲裁。但我感覺更安全。

So this is a good question, but maybe we should look to other processes where we expose people in this type of environment. And again, people always think that it's a question of putting in -- it is a good element. So we think we share it because we need to look again to avoid any, I would say, unsafe situation we could avoid, even if it has a cost. But at the end, it's safety first.

所以這是一個很好的問題，但也許我們應該考慮其他將人們暴露在這種環境中的過程。再說一次，人們總是認為這是一個投入的問題——這是一個很好的元素。所以我們認為我們分享它是因為我們需要再次考慮以避免任何我們可以避免的不安全情況，即使它是有代價的。但歸根究底還是安全第一。

So thank you for the remarks, and it's true that there is positive point we've done it, but we could have -- maybe done it before.

謝謝你的評論，我們確實做到了這一點，但我們本可以——也許之前就做到了。

On the first one, so volatility of the structure of the industry. You mean the strategies or you mean -- I'm not sure to have captured fully your question.

第一，產業結構的波動。你的意思是策略，或者你的意思是——我不確定是否完全理解了你的問題。

Just in terms of -- obviously, we've had -- it's been relatively stable in terms of the structure of the industry. And now as we go forward for the next 20 years, it seems like there's a lot more volatility as we add more renewable...

就產業結構而言，顯然我們已經相對穩定了。現在，當我們展望未來 20 年時，隨著我們增加更多再生能源，波動性似乎會更大…

With more M&A, more renewables, more...

隨著更多的併購、更多的再生能源、更多...

More renewables, yes. But just in terms of that chart of cash flow versus brand, that kind of -- that's the point that I was making, that ultimately we're getting more that do you end up having to be able to break that successfully longer term, that you continue to get more upside from that part?

更多可再生能源，是的。但就現金流與品牌的圖表而言，這就是我所說的觀點，最終我們會得到更多，你最終必須能夠打破長期的成功，你會繼續從這部分獲得更多好處嗎？

I think it's a question of, again, continuing to have -- if you keep in mind that your portfolio on the oil and gas will be on one side, breakeven, you maintain it, and that you look to what is the right assets in order to capture a part of the upside, you can continue to build any time.

我認為這又是一個問題，如果你牢記你的石油和天然氣投資組合將是一邊倒的，盈虧平衡，你就會維持它，並且你會尋找什麼是正確的資產為了抓住一部分上漲空間，你可以隨時繼續建倉。

I'm absolutely -- there is opportunities to do that. If you keep that in mind as a real target, yes, you -- it's a question of being focused. So what do I want to achieve, including it's a case, it's always the same discussion between growth and value.

我絕對有機會這樣做。如果你牢記這一點作為一個真正的目標，是的，你——這是一個專注的問題。那麼我想要達到什麼目標，包括它是一個案例，成長和價值之間的討論總是一樣的。

And that's the arbitration. We should not be suddenly obsessed by the 2% growth, even if we have declared 2% growth, or 2% to 3%, because we have the portfolio to execute. Now it's a matter of execution, including on the LNG part where it's part of the -- keeping part of the upside, that's part of it. I agree with this.

這就是仲裁。即使我們已經宣布成長 2%，或 2% 到 3%，我們也不應該突然沉迷於 2% 的成長，因為我們有投資組合要執行。現在這是一個執行問題，包括液化天然氣部分，它是保持部分上行空間的一部分，這是它的一部分。我同意這一點。

Do we see more diversions because of the renewables? I would say it's another business. You see some strategies diverging. I think some other companies will come one day of year to electricity. Even when you want to produce, no. When you decide to produce your green molecules, the famous molecules, what is hydrogen when it's green? It's electricity. It's electricity.

我們是否會因為再生能源而看到更多的轉移？我想說這是另一件事。您會看到一些策略存在分歧。我認為其他一些公司每年都會有一天提供電力。即使你想生產，也沒有。當您決定生產綠色分子（著名的分子）時，綠色的氫是什麼？這是電。這是電。

So you have to manage this energy as a fundamental feedstock even when you want to produce these e-methanol or whatever it is, e-fuel tomorrow. So I think it's part of -- and from my perspective, I think all the efforts we have done -- we are doing to be -- to manage the cost of electricity, the process of producing the electricity will help us tomorrow to go to these feed of molecules, knowing that today the demand for this molecule is not big.

因此，即使您想在明天生產這些電子甲醇或無論什麼電子燃料，您也必須將這種能源作為基本原料進行管理。所以我認為這是——從我的角度來看，我認為我們所做的所有努力——我們正在做的——管理電力成本，發電的過程將幫助我們明天去這些分子的飼料，知道今天對該分子的需求並不大。

You were speaking about EVs, I could say the same, but hydrogen, there is a lot of enthusiasm in media. When you look to the reality of the demand. By the way, we got $500,000 a ton per year that we are putting on the market. It's quite a good success, by the way. We have 50 offers. I'm not sure if we will need to qualify that.

你說的是電動車，我也可以這麼說，但氫能源，媒體上有很多熱情。當您關注需求的實際情況時。順便說一句，我們每年投放市場的噸位為 50 萬美元。順便說一句，這是一個相當成功的成功。我們有 50 個優惠。我不確定我們是否需要限定這一點。

But we have 7x more of the volume, which is offered, is 7x more than what we are ready to buy. So we'll see the competition in the price now because that's only a question of volume of price and probably part of these offers are not completely in line. But we are optimistic that we could get some good products, including maybe investing in some of the project ourselves. We'll see as a way too.

但我們提供的數量是我們準備購買的 7 倍。因此，我們現在將看到價格的競爭，因為這只是價格量的問題，而且可能部分報價並不完全一致。但我們樂觀地認為我們可以得到一些好的產品，包括我們自己投資一些項目。我們也會看到一種方式。

So I think it's question the demand there is, so, yes, there is some divergence. But honestly, we are very comfortable. And as long and as I said that we can remain at the top of profitability globally in the company, building the second pillar, this pillar on electricity, is okay. I would be worried if I were a shareholder, I see a decrease of the profitability. That would be more questionable. We are comfortable at the Board with that.

所以我認為需求有問題，所以，是的，存在一些分歧。但說實話，我們很舒服。正如我所說，只要我們能夠維持公司全球獲利能力的領先地位，建立第二個支柱，即電力支柱，就可以了。如果我是股東，我會擔心，我看到獲利能力下降。那就更值得懷疑了。我們董事會對此感到滿意。

The first question is on the dividend growth you mentioned earlier. We've done $2 billion buyback per quarter. You have this 5%, 6% base growth, and then an additional 1%. Could that additional 1% become larger in the future as you get more underlying cash flow growth, integrated power, integrated LNG? Are you more comfortable with the 7%?

第一個問題是關於你剛才提到的股息成長。我們每季回購了 20 億美元。你有 5%、6% 的基礎成長，然後還有 1%。隨著您獲得更多的基礎現金流成長、綜合電力、綜合液化天然氣，這額外的 1% 是否會在未來變得更大？你對7%更滿意嗎？

It will come larger if the share is going up. Because we are looking also to the yield, the yield is at 5.1%, which is on the top of the majors. And we are -- it's linked. You will say maybe the dividend growth, we didn't put the price of. It's a chicken and egg, that story. But no, we are, honestly -- there is room to do more, but we are comfortable because, again, we want to -- we prefer to increase the dividend in a way that we can secure it even if the cycles go down.

如果份額上升，它會變得更大。因為我們也在關注殖利率，殖利率為 5.1%，在主要債券中處於領先地位。我們是——這是有連結的。你可能會說，也許股息成長，我們沒有給出價格。這是先有雞還是先有蛋的故事。但不，老實說，我們還有做更多事情的空間，但我們感到很舒服，因為我們再次希望，我們更願意以即使周期下降也能確保股息的方式增加股息。

So 7%, 8%, $0.01, okay. That's the type of discussion. But we prefer to have a steady policy of increasing the dividend several years in a row rather than suddenly go down. And so that was the discussion, the philosophy.

所以 7%、8%、0.01 美元，好吧。這就是討論的類型。但我們更願意採取連續幾年增加股利的穩定政策，而不是突然下降。這就是討論和哲學。

When we benchmark to our peers, we felt that the 7% is quite on the good side. And again, we have -- I think the big news for TotalEnergies is we're changing our story, is that we have really enhanced the payout policy to shareholders. We were at 30% a few years ago, went down to up more than 40%. In fact, this year, we're at 45%. So this is a big change.

當我們與同行進行比較時，我們覺得 7% 已經相當不錯了。再說一遍，我認為對 TotalEnergies 來說最重要的消息是我們正在改變我們的故事，我們確實加強了對股東的派息政策。幾年前我們的成長率是 30%，後來下降到了 40% 以上。事實上，今年我們的比例是 45%。所以這是一個很大的改變。

And including -- and this is clearly anchored in the mindset of the Board today, but we need to monitor that because it's also part, I would say, of the energy transition strategy. We can execute it if we are profitable and if we return to shareholders a big -- a higher share of that. Otherwise, people will tell us why do you invest in this transition? Is it profitable? The fact that we remain very profitable and that we return to shareholders is a way as well to execute the strategy, the transition strategy we want to execute.

包括——這顯然是董事會今天的思維方式，但我們需要對此進行監控，因為我想說，這也是能源轉型策略的一部分。如果我們能夠獲利並且我們向股東返還大量——更高的份額，我們就可以執行它。否則，人們會告訴我們為什麼要投資這個轉型？是否有利可圖？事實上，我們仍然保持非常高的獲利能力，並且我們回報股東，這也是執行我們想要執行的策略、轉型策略的一種方式。

And we strongly believe we will deliver cash flows for the future for our shareholders. So that's the equation. There is no -- somebody asked, is it a mathematical formula? There is not a mathematical formula. We are looking to what we think is the right balance.

我們堅信，我們將為股東的未來帶來現金流。這就是等式。沒有──有人問，這是數學公式嗎？沒有數學公式。我們正在尋求我們認為正確的平衡。

Understood. And then secondly, I wanted to follow up on a couple of LNG projects that you mentioned. Just firstly on Mozambique LNG, if you can give an update on security situation, and how quickly you think you could get back to the construction there? And secondly, on Artic LNG 2, I mean how do you see that project ramping up? And what have you factored in for your guidance?

明白了。其次，我想跟進您提到的幾個液化天然氣項目。首先，關於莫三比克液化天然氣，您能否介紹安全局勢的最新情況？您認為多快可以恢復那裡的建設？其次，關於北極液化天然氣2號，我的意思是您如何看待專案的進展？您在指導時考慮了哪些因素？

Arctic LNG 2 is quite easy. It's under sanctions. So (inaudible) I would say I'd be clear. I never -- honestly, I'm -- unfortunately -- I mean, not surprised what was happening. We were very cautious in '22 when we announced that we have written off all that. It will -- so projects has been -- has moved on because these Novatek guys are quite incredible.

Arctic LNG 2 非常簡單。它正在受到製裁。所以（聽不清楚）我想說我很清楚。老實說，我從來沒有——不幸的是——我的意思是，對所發生的事情並不感到驚訝。 22 年，當我們宣布取消所有這些時，我們非常謹慎。項目將會繼續進行，因為諾瓦泰克的這些人非常不可思議。

We are able to put into production a new train despite all the sanctions and et cetera. So in fact, in terms of engineering, it's quite really a remarkable achievement. I'm not surprised. Because it was difficult to -- the Europeans need to have this Yamal LNG, 20 million tons. But to add more Russian LNG in the mix is a little politically complex, to add more. So I'm not super surprised on that.

儘管面臨各種制裁等因素，我們仍能投入生產新列車。事實上，就工程而言，這確實是一項了不起的成就。我不驚訝。因為歐洲人需要擁有 2,000 萬噸亞馬爾液化天然氣，這很難。但要增加更多的俄羅斯液化天然氣在政治上有點複雜。所以我對此並不感到非常驚訝。

So that's where we are. So honestly, today, we are not more in the governance. We have no -- we have put in force measure everything. So I cannot give you more information because we are not there anymore. And of course, I mean, trading team or LNG teams were in contact, but we have put forth measure because it's -- that's the reality. No way to expose the company to any type of secondary sanction. That's clear to me. So we are in the process.

這就是我們現在的情況。老實說，今天我們並沒有更多地參與治理。我們沒有——我們已經強制衡量一切。所以我無法向您提供更多信息，因為我們已經不在那裡了。當然，我的意思是，貿易團隊或液化天然氣團隊正在聯繫，但我們已經提出了措施，因為這就是現實。沒有辦法讓公司受到任何類型的二級制裁。這對我來說很清楚。所以我們正在這個過程中。

On what I understand, just to share with you, is that they are willing to install the second train. The third train for me is on hold, which I understand. But the second train seems to move.

據我了解，只是與大家分享的是，他們願意安裝第二列火車。我的第三班列車已暫停，這是我理解的。但第二列火車似乎開動了。

Where is the market? Not in Europe. So there is only one possible market, one or 2. But it's not in our assets anymore.

市場在哪裡？不是在歐洲。所以只有一個可能的市場，一兩個。但它不再是我們的資產了。

On Mozambique LNG, listen, I mean, we have made -- we make -- we monitor permanently the situation on the ground. As you know, there are some -- the Mozambique state is helped by another African state, namely Rwanda, to control the situation today. And more importantly to us, the civil population is back in the area. Life is back to normality.

關於莫三比克液化天然氣，聽著，我的意思是，我們已經——我們——我們永久監控了當地的情況。如你所知，莫三比克國家在另一個非洲國家盧安達的幫助下控制了今天的局勢。對我們來說更重要的是，平民又回到了該地區。生活恢復正常。

There have been a few incidents recently linked to the Gaza tensions, I would say. We can observe in the planet that you have some (inaudible) sales which are being reactivated, just to -- not only there, in many countries. You've seen some -- so that's unfortunate. But there is a link. So we have to monitor that.

我想說，最近發生了幾起與加薩緊張局勢有關的事件。我們可以在地球上觀察到，您正在重新啟動一些（聽不清楚）銷售，只是為了——不僅在那裡，在許多國家。你已經看到了一些——所以這是不幸的。但有一個連結。所以我們必須對此進行監控。

But today, in fact, it's more to reactivate the contract, there is still some engineering to be done. So that's part. So construction, I hope it will come back by middle of the year. We monitor that. Again, what I don't want to do is to take a decision to bring back people to be obliged to get out again, because that would be too complex.

但今天，其實更多的是重新激活合同，還有一些工程要做。這就是一部分。所以建設，我希望它能在今年年中恢復。我們對此進行監控。再說一次，我不想做的就是做出讓人們被迫再次撤離的決定，因為這太複雜了。

But again, today, the discussion with -- we have progressed a lot with the suppliers, I mean, the different contractors. In a good way, I mean, including on the costs, we had some debate. They have listened to our messages. They want to reactivate it. But no, the final point, again, is to put back -- it's Jean-Pierre work that we have been on the -- so global financing, it was a big financing CapEx that we need to reactivate. We are working on it. It should come in the coming months.

但今天，我們與供應商，我的意思是不同的承包商的討論取得了很大進展。我的意思是，從好的方面來說，包括在成本方面，我們進行了一些辯論。他們聽到了我們的訊息。他們想重新激活它。但不，最後一點是，我們一直在進行讓-皮埃爾的工作，所以全球融資，這是我們需要重新啟動的大型融資資本支出。我們正在做這件事。它應該在未來幾個月內到來。

It's Alastair Syme at Citi. Patrick, are you more or less optimistic on Namibia than you were last September? And I guess you're putting 1/3 of your exploration budget, so I'm guessing you're optimistic, but...

我是花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆。派崔克，您對納米比亞的樂觀程度與去年九月相比是更樂觀還是更不樂觀？我猜你投入了 1/3 的探索預算，所以我猜你很樂觀，但...

No, I said the same. I told you. I think I'm completely optimistic.

不，我也這麼說。我告訴你了。我想我是完全樂觀的。

I kind of have the impression...

我有點印象...

I'm more optimistic than my colleague, because we don't have the same license.

我比我的同事樂觀，因為我們沒有相同的執照。

But what does [Mangeti] do? I was certainly under the impression that would add another resource base...

但是[Mangeti]做什麼呢？我當然有這樣的印象：會再增加一個資源庫......

No, it's -- we find back the Venus horizon, I can say. So it's adding additional resources. It's not huge.

不，我可以說，我們找回了金星地平線。所以它正在添加額外的資源。它並不大。

And the DST results that you had?

你得到的夏令時間結果是什麼？

We don't have the DST yet.

我們還沒有夏令時。

The 2 venous wells.

2個靜脈井。

But on Venous, again, we had one very good DST. The second one, again, the location of the well isn't perfect. It demonstrates some heterogeneity. That's why we need to find to be sure that when we develop, we develop and we locate the FPSO on the right spot, not to be too far from the sweet spot we want to develop.

但在維納斯，我們又經歷了一次非常好的夏令時。第二個，同樣，井的位置並不完美。它表現出一些異質性。這就是為什麼我們需要確定，當我們開發時，我們開發並將 FPSO 放置在正確的位置，而不是我們想要開發的最佳位置太遠。

It will be a little like Suriname. It will be a combination of different sweet spots. So the location where you put -- because then you have the length of your pipeline, the subsea system. So if you want to minimize the cost of the subsea system, you have to look at properly to operate in order to be at the optimum for location.

這有點像蘇利南。它將是不同甜蜜點的組合。所以你放置的位置 - 因為這樣你就有了管道、海底系統的長度。因此，如果您想最大限度地降低海底系統的成本，您必須考慮正確的操作方式，以便處於最佳位置。

Okay. But bigger than Suriname?

好的。但比蘇利南大？

Wait and see.

等著瞧。

Okay. My second question is just on German power prices. I think when you did the auction last year, you sort of indicated a view the EUR 70 to EUR 80 a megawatt hour. It's kind of where we've now pulled back to, in Germany, prices have pulled back a long way. But what's been remarkable is there's no real demand elasticity, like the industrial demand is still really weak. Does that worry you that the economy can't support these power prices?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於德國的電價。我想當你去年進行拍賣時，你表示了每兆瓦時 70 至 80 歐元的觀點。這就是我們現在已經回落的地方，在德國，價格已經回落了很長一段路。但值得注意的是，沒有真正的需求彈性，例如產業需求仍然非常疲軟。您是否擔心經濟無法支撐這些電價？

No, no, no. Because, again, Germany has decided that they exit from nuclear and they exit from coal. So the power price in Germany will be fundamentally driven, on one side by the renewables, but also by, fundamentally, gas plus ETS. Don't forget the ETS. So the fundamental element in fact, in the electricity economy in Europe is also the ETS price.

不不不。因為德國再次決定退出核能和煤炭。因此，德國的電價將從根本上受到驅動，一方面由再生能源驅動，但從根本上講，也由天然氣加碳排放交易體系驅動。不要忘記 ETS。所以實際上歐洲電力經濟的基本要素也是ETS價格。

And think to that because at the end the marginal price will be done by the ETS on the top of the gap. So when you are a country which decide that they will go from a gas plus -- gas plants plus renewables, the price will remain a good price. So today, I'm -- I think the full work curve in Europe today in '25 is EUR 79 per megawatt hour. Okay. That's okay. We are fine with that.

並考慮到這一點，因為最終邊際價格將由 ETS 在缺口頂部完成。因此，當一個國家決定從天然氣+天然氣工廠+再生能源轉向天然氣+時，價格將仍然是一個不錯的價格。所以今天，我認為 25 年歐洲的全部工作曲線是每兆瓦時 79 歐元。好的。沒關係。我們對此表示同意。

So I'm -- no, no, we are comfortable with developing this offshore wind in Germany. And we will find customers who are ready to commit on the long term because it's a question of -- now what the industries don't like is the volatility of the price. So we were afraid. So it helped us to consider that, when we say EUR 70 to EUR 80 per megawatt hour to some of these industries, it's okay, we can find them.

所以我——不，不，我們對在德國開發離岸風電感到滿意。我們會找到願意做出長期承諾的客戶，因為這是一個問題——現在業界不喜歡的是價格的波動。所以我們很害怕。因此，這幫助我們考慮到，當我們對其中一些行業說每兆瓦時 70 至 80 歐元時，沒關係，我們可以找到它們。

Let's see, Germany from this perspective, again, because of the choice of the policymakers is, I think, one of the good market to take this type of bet to keep some offshore wind merchant in Germany.

讓我們看看，從這個角度來看，德國再次因為政策制定者的選擇，我認為，這是採取這種類型的賭注以在德國保留一些海上風電商人的良好市場之一。

But it's also a good market to have some batteries. Because when people say, we want 70% of renewables, if you don't have plenty of batteries everywhere, I can tell you, it will be difficult.

但這也是擁有一些電池的好市場。因為當人們說，我們想要 70% 的可再生能源時，如果到處都沒有足夠的電池，我可以告訴你，這會很困難。

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. Patrick, congratulations on closing that drillship deal. I do think it's quite a departure for the industry. Maybe you can give us a little bit of an insight what you're hearing from your partners in all those projects. Are you also frustrated that you think their capital discipline is waning a little bit? Because I share your view, there isn't a huge amount of competition out there in that part of the industry. And do you think others will follow in this step? How many more are you going to buy?

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特。派崔克，祝賀您完成了鑽井船交易。我確實認為這對這個行業來說是一個很大的轉變。也許您可以向我們介紹一下您從所有這些項目的合作夥伴那裡聽到的情況。您是否也因為認為他們的資本紀律有所減弱而感到沮喪？因為我同意你的觀點，所以這個行業的競爭並不激烈。您認為其他人會效仿這一步驟嗎？您還打算買多少？

It was a situation. But I think it's true that it's a breakthrough, including in the company, (inaudible) we know because this industry has -- it's a story of the '90s. In the '90s, it's old story, but the industry has changed in the 90s. The companies were owning ships, the red ships. But then suddenly, the price went down, they were stuck with the rigs and blah, blah. And so they decided to stop that business. In the meantime, we are not a $10 per barrel, we are $80, even at $50.

這是一種情況。但我認為這確實是一個突破，包括在公司方面，（聽不清楚）我們知道，因為這個行業——這是一個 90 年代的故事。在 90 年代，這是老故事了，但這個行業在 90 年代發生了變化。這些公司擁有船隻，即紅色船隻。但突然間，價格下降了，他們被鑽孔機困住了，等等。因此他們決定停止這項業務。同時，我們的價格不是每桶 10 美元，而是 80 美元，甚至是 50 美元。

What I have observed for the last 25 years in this industry is that the low bottom of the deepwater rig is $200,000 per day. It could go up to $500 million, $600 million. Honestly, the cost of the rig is around $800 million. When you pay $500,000 per day, you pay the rig in 4, 5 years.

過去25年我在這個產業觀察到，深水鑽井平台的最低成本是每天20萬美元。它可能高達 5 億美元、6 億美元。老實說，該鑽機的成本約為 8 億美元。當你每天支付 50 萬美元時，你將在 4、5 年內支付鑽孔機費用。

We have done this type of mistake from 2010 to 2015. I was super frustrated, to be honest. But we have paid the rigs, and in fact, fully, and in fact, at the end of the day. So we are beginning against the same history, and so the only way is to edge our things. Why don't we -- we will not operate the rigs. That rigs will be operated by Vantage. So we wanted to have a partner, we'll not operate. But we have 75. So at the end, we'll receive the cost, and we'll sell it.

從 2010 年到 2015 年，我們就犯過這種錯誤。說實話，我非常沮喪。但我們已經支付了鑽機費用，事實上，在一天結束時，我們已經全額支付了費用。因此，我們正從同樣的歷史開始，所以唯一的方法就是把我們的東西邊緣化。我們為什麼不呢——我們不會操作這些鑽孔機。該鑽機將由 Vantage 營運。所以我們想要有一個合作夥伴，我們不會經營。但我們有 75 個。所以最後，我們將收到成本，然後將其出售。

And to be clear, this rig will be sold to a partnership at a market rate. So that's a way, that's the game. (inaudible) will follow. I know that I have announced that to some of -- they look to us. I think it's just nothing new. Putting $200 million in advance on the rig in order to secure a 10-year, et cetera, I see that, at the size of the scale of our operations, is nothing. In fact, when you -- okay, it's innovative.

需要明確的是，該鑽機將以市場價格出售給合作夥伴。這就是一種方式，這就是遊戲。 （聽不清楚）將隨之而來。我知道我已經向其中一些人宣布了這一點——他們期待著我們。我認為這不是什麼新鮮事。為了確保 10 年的使用期限而提前投入 2 億美元購買鑽井平台等等，我認為，以我們的營運規模來說，這根本不算什麼。事實上，當你——好吧，這就是創新。

I think, yes, my only point, I don't want all my teams to be super excited, we own a rig. So it will be managed by Vantage. But -- no, we don't own, we don't operate. And again -- but it's -- we need to do something. We cannot just look, see the cost going up and complaining. So what can we do? So this action. It's true that with Vantage, it was a company which was the financial stress. So we had a good discussion. But it's more in our heads, but we need to be innovative sometimes.

我想，是的，我唯一的觀點是，我不希望我的所有團隊都超級興奮，我們擁有一台鑽孔機。因此它將由 Vantage 管理。但是──不，我們不擁有，也不經營。再說一次——但確實是——我們需要做點什麼。我們不能只是看著成本上升而抱怨。所以，我們能做些什麼？所以這個動作。確實，Vantage 是一家面臨財務壓力的公司。於是我們進行了很好的討論。但這更多的是在我們的頭腦中，但有時我們需要創新。

So I'm comfortable. Again, one is nothing compared to my 8 to 10. I could have 2 or 3, at certain point, I need to keep flexibility. But if I have other opportunities, I will look at it. So it's a question of opportunities. But I mean it's a lesson of the year 2010, 2015. We cannot just repeat the same mistake. We have some projects. But if the CapEx going up, why should be -- I want to do the project, but I need to find ways to control my cost. And this is one way to hedge our drilling cost.

所以我很舒服。再說一次，與我的 8 到 10 個相比，1 個不算什麼。我可以有 2 個或 3 個，在某些時候，我需要保持靈活性。但如果有其他機會，我會考慮一下。所以這是一個機會的問題。但我的意思是這是2010、2015年的教訓。我們不能重複同樣的錯誤。我們有一些項目。但如果資本支出上升，為什麼會這樣——我想做這個項目，但我需要找到控製成本的方法。這是對沖我們的鑽探成本的一種方法。

Can I have a quick second question, Patrick? You commented earlier that you don't really see looseness in the global LNG pool before mid-2026. Is that close enough for your customers in Asia, in particular, that they're already telling you, you know what, I'm not signing these Brent slopes, et cetera, there's plenty more to come in the latter half of the decade?

我可以問第二個問題嗎，派崔克？您之前評論說，在 2026 年中期之前，全球液化天然氣池不會真正出現鬆動。對於您在亞洲的客戶來說，這是否足夠接近，特別是他們已經告訴您，您知道嗎，我不會簽署這些布倫特斜坡，等等，在這十年的後半段還會有更多的事情發生？

No. In fact, no, because, in fact, they -- what we observed is that when we marketed P&G, we had quite a number of offers, not at 14% Brent, let's be clear, but quite reasonable Brent, where we are ready to sign. We have signed some HOA. We consider they are good for the project on the long term. So today, they keep -- they still have in mind what happened in '22.

不。事實上，不，因為，事實上，我們觀察到，當我們推銷寶潔時，我們有相當多的報價，不是14% 布倫特原油，讓我們明確一點，而是相當合理的布倫特原油，我們在那裡準備簽名。我們已經簽署了一些 HOA。我們認為從長遠來看它們對專案有利。所以今天，他們仍然記得 22 年發生的事情。

So they see the shock of '22, make them think, okay, it's maybe long term because, in fact, to avoid this huge volatility, the only way is to make long term. So there is a long term. And again, we have been approached by some Chinese LNG buyers, which are really keen to go in the longer term.

因此，他們看到了 22 年的衝擊，讓他們思考，好吧，這可能是長期的，因為事實上，為了避免這種巨大的波動，唯一的方法就是長期投資。所以有一個長期的。一些中國液化天然氣買家再次與我們接洽，他們非常渴望長期購買。

I would say that from this perspective, what has been done in the U.S. on the temporary ban is helping the other projects in the world. Because, in fact, honestly, I'm not (inaudible) of it on our portfolio. The problem of this type of move even is for electoral campaign, and we know the story behind it, is that it's a question of trust in the capacity of the projects we deliver.

我想說，從這個角度來看，美國在臨時禁令方面所做的事情正在幫助世界其他計畫。因為，事實上，老實說，我的投資組合中沒有（聽不清楚）它。這種舉動的問題甚至是針對競選活動的，我們知道背後的故事，這是對我們交付的項目的能力的信任問題。

And that's not very good. So it pushed these other buyers, these Asian buyers, not only to rely on the U.S. LNG, but to look to other locations, which is good for Mozambique tomorrow. You know we have 1 million tons, which have been -- which will not be renewed by one of the buyer. We are -- we -- TotalEnergies will take part of it, and we can sell that. So it's good for Qatar, it's good for all these projects.

這不太好。因此，這促使其他買家，這些亞洲買家不僅依賴美國液化天然氣，而且轉向其他地點，這對莫三比克的明天有利。你知道我們有 100 萬噸，其中一位買家不會續約。我們——我們——TotalEnergies 將參與其中，我們可以出售它。所以這對卡達有好處，對所有這些項目都有好處。

So I see that the long term is still there, and that's not disappeared. Despite the fact that, you are right, we could anticipate a certain lower price on the spot, they are willing to cover. So today, it's more than the way to think. Not only in China, it's true in Japan, it's true in Korea. So Asian buyers are there.

所以我認為長期仍然存在，而且並沒有消失。儘管事實是，你是對的，但我們可以預期當場會有一定的較低價格，他們願意支付。所以今天，這不僅僅是一種思考方式。不只在中國如此，在日本也是如此，在韓國也是如此。所以亞洲買家就在那裡。

Okay. We have people on the phone as well.

好的。我們也有人打電話。

Yes. We have Jason. I think Jason Gabelman, who is online.

是的。我們有傑森。我認為賈森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman）在線。

They want to ask a question, we can take the question.

他們想問問題，我們可以回答問題。

Yes. They woke up early.

是的。他們很早就醒了。

Yes. Can you guys hear me?

是的。你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

All right. Great. I had 2 questions. First, I just wanted to clarify an earlier answer discussing net debt. I don't know if you gave an actual gearing target, but it's moved across the past number of years. So just wondering if you could provide an updated gearing target moving forward?

好的。偉大的。我有兩個問題。首先，我只是想澄清之前討論淨債務的答案。我不知道您是否給出了實際的負債目標，但它在過去幾年中有所變化。所以只是想知道您是否可以提供更新的槓桿目標？

And then secondly, going back to LNG trading. It seems like the past few years, you've benefited quite a bit from the spread in global gas prices versus Henry Hub gas prices just given your position in U.S. LNG. Are you able to kind of optimize global LNG flows to replicate kind of the upside you've seen from the U.S. to global gas price spreads as the market kind of expects that spread to tighten over the next few years?

其次，回到液化天然氣貿易。考慮到您在美國液化天然氣中的地位，在過去的幾年裡，您似乎從全球天然氣價格與亨利中心天然氣價格的價差中受益匪淺。您是否能夠優化全球液化天然氣流量，以複製從美國到全球天然氣價格利差的上升趨勢，因為市場預計未來幾年利差將收緊？

Okay. No, we don't express a gearing target. We are very comfortable with 5%. I think the CEO salary variable pay target is under 10%, if I remind, this is a Board. So you have an idea what I should control, is under 10%. I'm very comfortable to go down to 0. I mean I'm very comfortable. There is no problem. But it's more, again, in terms of today at 5%, we have reached a very strong balance sheet. So my CFO is comfortable. It does not show to go lower. So the priority is more in the way we allocate the capital. First, to capital -- the dividend, the capital expenditures and the return to shareholders with more than 40% of cash flows, I would say that's the main commitment.

好的。不，我們不表達負債目標。我們對 5% 感到非常滿意。我認為 CEO 薪資浮動薪酬目標低於 10%，如果我提醒的話，這是一個董事會。所以你知道我應該控制什麼，是在 10% 以下。我很舒服地降到 0。我的意思是我很舒服。沒有問題。但更重要的是，就今天的 5% 而言，我們已經實現了非常強勁的資產負債表。所以我的財務長很舒服。它並沒有顯示出要走低的跡象。因此，優先考慮的更多是我們分配資本的方式。首先是資本－股利、資本支出和對股東的回報，現金流量超過40%，我認為這是主要的承諾。

So no, we don't have -- less than 10% is okay, I think. But we can go down to 0, no problem, if we have 0 debt, or even a positive treasury.

所以不，我們沒有——我認為低於 10% 就可以了。但如果我們的債務為零，甚至國債為正，我們可以降至 0，沒問題。

Again, I'm not sure -- so I will go to Stephane to answer to the question, which is, if I understood, can we optimize the global LNG flows to replicate the upside we've seen in the past? So explain again what you are doing with your portfolio.

再說一次，我也不確定——所以我會去找史蒂芬回答這個問題，那就是，如果我理解的話，我們能否優化全球液化天然氣流量，以複製我們過去看到的優勢？因此，請再次解釋您將如何處理您的投資組合。

So as I said, the portfolio is basically we have a long-term portfolio where we buy in rehab and fixed cost and we sell partly Brent, partly GKM and TTF. And then we have a global optimization with plenty of optionality in the portfolio. One of the big one being to be able to switch from Europe to Asia and from Asia to Europe.

正如我所說，投資組合基本上是我們有一個長期投資組合，我們在修復和固定成本中購買，我們部分出售布蘭特原油，部分出售 GKM 和 TTF。然後我們進行全域最佳化，在產品組合中提供大量的選擇。其中最重要的一點是能夠從歐洲轉向亞洲，從亞洲轉向歐洲。

But you have as well plenty of other plays like the (inaudible), the contango, the arbitrage of timing, the possibility between Africa, LatAm and Asia, and so on. It's clear that in '22, we have benefited from the spread increase between HH and GKM and TTF. And that going forward, we are going to less benefit from that.

但你還有很多其他的玩法，像是（聽不清楚）、期貨溢價、時機套利、非洲、拉丁美洲和亞洲之間的可能性等等。很明顯，在 22 年，我們受益於 HH 與 GKM 和 TTF 之間的價差增加。展望未來，我們從中獲得的好處將會減少。

You've seen, because it's partly already in the level of the edge, we have been able to realize, and Patrick mentioned it, that the difference of edge between '24 and '25 in terms of cash going to be USD 500 million. And that's done.

你已經看到，因為部分已經處於邊緣水平，我們已經能夠意識到，帕特里克提到過，就現金而言，24 年和 25 年之間的邊緣差異將達到 5 億美元。這樣就完成了。

As for the optionality of the portfolio, we are confident that we have plenty of ideas to continue to sustain the good performance we have done in the past, even if -- you notice that it's not enough.

至於投資組合的可選性，我們相信我們有足夠的想法來繼續維持我們過去的良好業績，即使——你注意到這還不夠。

No. But again, '22 was absolutely exceptional. We don't -- and I don't hope, by the way, to see again, $30 per million BTU. $50, it's very detrimental for the demand in the market, you can destroy the market by this type of price. So it's why, so I'm not willing to -- I mean, okay, we benefit 1 year, but it's a one-off, and I hope we will not come back. It's not a normal market to see this type of prices, $200 per barrel for gas. That's absolutely abnormal.

不。但再說一次，22 絕對是例外。順便說一句，我們不會——而且我也不希望再次看到每百萬 BTU 30 美元的價格。 50美元，這對市場的需求是非常不利的，你可以透過這種價格來破壞市場。所以這就是為什麼，所以我不願意——我的意思是，好吧，我們受益一年，但這是一次性的，我希望我們不會再回來。天然氣每桶 200 美元的價格在正常市場上並不常見。這絕對不正常。

But in fact, fundamentally, what the strong belief I have is that Henry Hub will remain quite low. That's why we built on the LNG in the U.S. because we have a huge amount of gas there. You have some domestic demand, but it's -- so you have, okay, it could go from 3% to 5%. But so the question is, how do you position the export market compared to Henry Hub, between the Brent and Henry Hub, and GKM and Henry Hub? So that's a way of optimizing the flows. To optimize the flows, by the way, what you need is LNG tankers, and we are growing our fleet. I think we are going to 30, more or less, we are targeting 30 LNG tankers or 20.

但事實上，從根本上講，我堅信亨利港將保持相當低的水平。這就是我們在美國建立液化天然氣的原因，因為我們那裡有大量的天然氣。你有一些國內需求，但——所以你有，好吧，它可能會從 3% 上升到 5%。但問題是，與亨利港、布倫特港和亨利港、GKM 和亨利港相比，您如何定位出口市場？這是優化流程的一種方法。順便說一句，為了優化流量，您需要的是液化天然氣油輪，我們正在擴大我們的船隊。我認為我們的目標是 30 艘，或多或少，我們的目標是 30 艘或 20 艘液化天然氣油輪。

Yes.

是的。

So growing our fleet help us to optimize all these flows when the arbitrage is open between the U.S. and Asia, we can go to Asia. Of course, location of ECA in Mexico is good from this perspective, and we are looking to over activity. So it's a question of optimizing.

因此，擴大我們的機隊有助於我們在美國和亞洲之間開放套利時優化所有這些流動，我們可以前往亞洲。當然，從這個角度來看，ECA 在墨西哥的位置很好，我們希望過度活動。所以這是一個優化的問題。

The Panama channel from this perspective is more a problem for us than the Red Sea. Because the Red Sea, when you look at to Qatar to Europe through the Red Sea or through South Africa, it's only 4 days of difference. So it's not a big event. Four days, you can manage it. When you have to go from the Gulf of Mexico through the South America, to Argentina, back, it's 20 days of difference if you avoid. So it's a big impact on the cost and all the system is $0.5 per million Btu more or less. So it has an impact on the arbitrage between Asia and Europe.

從這個角度來看，巴拿馬海峽對我們來說比紅海更成問題。因為紅海，當你看卡達經由紅海或經由南非到歐洲時，只有4天的差異。所以這不是一個大事件。四天，你就能搞定。當你必須從墨西哥灣穿過南美洲，到達阿根廷，再返回時，如果你避開的話，就會有20天的時間差。因此，這對成本影響很大，整個系統的成本為每百萬 Btu 0.5 美元左右。所以對亞歐之間的套利是有影響的。

But again, one of the big assets we have is not only the fleet, but it's the regas in Europe. Because we have a lot of regas in Europe around 20 million tons per year. So we can easily make the arbitration between Europe and the rest of the world. That's also important to optimize the flows. So that's our questions -- answers.

但同樣，我們擁有的重要資產之一不僅是機隊，而且是歐洲的加氣站。因為我們在歐洲每年進行大量再氣化，產量約 2,000 萬噸。這樣我們就可以很容易地在歐洲和世界其他地區之間進行仲裁。這對於優化流程也很重要。這就是我們的問題——答案。

Patrick, sorry for asking this question comes every meeting. You've added to your position in terms of, if you want gas in the U.S. with this CGT deal. You have talked in the past that you have been looking at increasing your upstream position there. Maybe can you talk about the market you're seeing for deals on gas assets, what type of assets you're looking in terms of plays? And whether that's one of the acquisitions we could see in 2024?

派崔克，很抱歉每次開會都會問這個問題。如果您想透過這項資本利得稅交易在美國獲得天然氣，您就已經增加了部位。您過去曾說過，您一直在考慮增加在那裡的上游地位。也許您能談談您所看到的天然氣資產交易市場，您正在尋找什麼類型的資產？這是否是我們在 2024 年可能看到的收購之一？

No, being clear, but it's not necessary one, could be several. So you will see soon one, small one. It could be a sum of small assets. The question for me is the M&A is good if you buy at such a good price, cheap price. That's all. So we have time. I need the gas by '27. I don't need the gas tomorrow morning.

不，明確地說，但不一定是一個，可以是多個。所以你很快就會看到一隻，很小的。它可能是一筆小資產。我的問題是，如果你以如此好的價格、便宜的價格購買，那麼併購是件好事。就這樣。所以我們有時間。 27 年前我需要汽油。明天早上我不需要汽油。

So we are building. No, it's part of -- we are clear. We want to hedge our LNG position in the U.S. with more upstream gas. So we are opportunities. But don't expect us to make a giant acquisition. We are shy people in the U.S. (inaudible) more people.

所以我們正在建設。不，這是──我們很清楚的一部分。我們希望透過更多的上游天然氣來對沖我們在美國的液化天然氣地位。所以我們就是機會。但不要指望我們會進行大規模收購。在美國，我們是害羞的人（聽不清楚）。

Just one on cost inflation. You talked about rigs. Can you perhaps talk to other areas where you're seeing cost inflation? And perhaps related to that, there have been headlines suggesting you're seeing some cost increases in Uganda with -- relating to the pipeline. So perhaps just if you can talk about what you're seeing there.

只有一個關於成本通膨的問題。你談到了裝備。您能否談談您看到成本上漲的其他領域？也許與此相關的是，有頭條新聞表明烏幹達的成本有所增加，與管道有關。因此，也許您可以談談您在那裡看到的情況。

No, this one, we observed it in -- when was it? When the teams wanted to order for steel and I refused to pay, '22, remember the teams came to us with a huge increase of the steel, which was in March or April. I say, no panic, relax, we'll be late. I said, okay, we'll be late. No, we'll not be late because we have other events, by the way, in this project. And in fact, towards the end, we put the order on the steel, I think, beginning of '23 and it was a very reasonable price.

不，這個，我們是在──什麼時候觀察到的？當球隊想要訂購鋼材而我拒絕付款時，'22，記住球隊來找我們時大幅增加了鋼材，那是在三月或四月。我說，別驚慌，放鬆，我們會遲到的。我說好吧，我們要遲到了。不，我們不會遲到，因為順便說一句，在這個項目中我們還有其他活動。事實上，到年底，我們在 23 年初就下了鋼材訂單，這是一個非常合理的價格。

So sometimes, it's just a question of arbitration between the planning and the cost. And so -- and that's true that sometimes our project managers, they have a clear -- they want to be -- within the planning. I told them no, within the planning, within the budget. It's both. So sometimes it's just a question for the management to, okay, to arbitrate between both.

所以有時候，這只是規劃和成本之間的仲裁問題。因此，確實有時我們的專案經理在規劃上有明確的目標。我告訴他們不，在計畫內，在預算內。兩者都是。所以有時這只是管理階層在兩者之間進行仲裁的問題。

And again, if on some of the projects we have observed. Today, we have a debate on some of them. But I mentioned, we want to sanction Sepia 2, Atapu 2, Suriname, and [Camino]. We need to -- if we have to delay one, we'll delay one. But on Suriname, I can tell you, we are trying to work on an innovative solution.

再說一次，如果在我們觀察到的一些項目上。今天，我們就其中一些問題進行辯論。但我提到過，我們想要製裁 Sepia 2、Atapu 2、蘇利南和 [Camino]。我們需要──如果我們必須延後一項，我們就會延後一項。但在蘇利南，我可以告訴你，我們正在努力尋找創新的解決方案。

By the way, looking carefully to what our big friend in Guyana is doing, to benefit from their own way to develop sales. So we try to transfer part of their way to manage some of the leased FPSO in order to be efficient on the cost.

順便，仔細看看我們圭亞那的大朋友在做什麼，從他們自己發展銷售的方式中受益。所以我們嘗試轉移他們的一部分方式來管理一些租賃的FPSO，以提高成本效率。

So the costs for me are fundamental. What we should not be is replicating some mistake we've done in 2010 by being driven more than volume than value, so managing the cost. And so you have to look to different options. Our teams love to operate. We want to operate. But does it mean that we own all the lease -- there are alternatives in the market, which have been developed. So it's not because we are at $80, we should forget them. So we are working on it very clearly. So if I have to choose, sometimes, I will prefer to delay. The oil will not disappear. So if I need to delay a project, we can wait a little.

所以成本對我來說是根本的。我們不應該重複 2010 年犯下的錯誤，即我們的驅動力重於數量而不是價值，因此要管理成本。所以你必須尋找不同的選擇。我們的團隊熱愛營運。我們要經營。但這是否意味著我們擁有所有租賃權——市場上有已經開發出來的替代方案。所以並不是因為我們的價格是 80 美元，我們就應該忘記它們。所以我們正在非常明確地開展工作。所以如果我必須選擇的話，有時候我會寧願延後。油不會消失。所以如果我需要推遲一個項目，我們可以稍等一下。

I had a follow-up on hydrogen. I was wondering in which parts of the world you're seeing the most attractive bids on your 500,000 ton green hydrogen tender. And I seem to remember your comments in New York a few months ago were a lot less positive on hydrogen back then.

我對氫進行了跟踪。我想知道您在世界哪些地區看到的 50 萬噸綠色氫招標投標最具吸引力。我似乎記得幾個月前您在紐約的評論當時對氫的積極態度要低得多。

And then my second question is on short-cycle upstream CapEx. I see it's $1.5 billion this year. Is that an increase on the previous run rate of about $1 billion? Or is it about the same? And is there enough runway to continue with this level of short-cycle activity going forward?

我的第二個問題是關於短週期上游資本支出。我看到今年是 15 億美元。這是否比之前約 10 億美元的運行率增加？或者說是差不多的嗎？未來是否有足夠的跑道來繼續這種程度的短週期活動？

Thank you for the second question because I forget to comment it. On this slide, there were 4 messages where I forget one. So thank you. No, we -- no, it's not an increase. We keep this flexibility. I mentioned $1.5 billion to $2 billion. It's a good way, however, to arbitrate if we have to -- suddenly, we have another COVID epidemic, which I don't hope, pandemic, I don't hope. No, we have that.

謝謝你的第二個問題，因為我忘了評論。這張投影片上有 4 則訊息，其中一封我忘記了。所以謝謝。不，我們——不，這不是成長。我們保持這種靈活性。我提到了 15 億到 20 億美元。然而，如果我們必須這樣做的話，這是一個很好的仲裁方式——突然間，我們又爆發了一場新冠疫情，我不希望這種情況發生，大流行，我不希望。不，我們有那個。

In fact, positively, it's more -- no, we just announced, I think it's tomorrow, we put into production Akpo West in Nigeria. It typically is the type of tie-back which we have been able to do, deciding that 1 year ago, 1.5 year ago, and to put it into production, benefiting from a high price. So it's -- I think we have in our portfolio, either in Nigeria and Angola, but also in the North Sea, on [Caleine], for example, on (inaudible) in Denmark, and also, by the way, we have (inaudible) share in our production in Argentina, in the U.S. We can make this type of short cycle.

事實上，積極的一面是，不，我們剛剛宣布，我認為是明天，我們將在尼日利亞的 Akpo West 投入生產。這通常是我們已經能夠做到的回接類型，1年前、1.5年前就決定將其投入生產，並受益於高價格。所以，我認為我們的投資組合中既有尼日利亞和安哥拉的項目，也有北海的 [Caleine] 項目，例如，丹麥（聽不清楚）的項目，順便說一句，我們也有（聽不清楚）我們在阿根廷和美國的生產份額我們可以進行這種短週期。

So we decided that we need to have $1.5 billion to $2 billion of short cycle every year in order in case of, again, cash to be able to arbitrate, and also today is more a positive way to benefit from a good price. So they are very profitable. They are profitable at $50. Of course, when we launch Akpo West production at $80, profitability is very high. So this is very important in the way we appreciate to keep this flexibility in CapEx that we mentioned in September.

因此，我們決定每年需要有 15 億至 20 億美元的短期週期，以便再次有現金能夠進行仲裁，而且今天也是從良好價格中受益的更積極的方式。所以他們非常有利可圖。他們的盈利為 50 美元。當然，當我們以 80 美元的價格推出 Akpo West 產品時，盈利能力非常高。因此，這對於我們在 9 月提到的保持資本支出的靈活性非常重要。

Now on hydrogen, don't -- I mean I'm still on the -- there. In fact, all that is linked to where is the demand. The demand exists in Europe, and we are refiner in Europe, because there is a policy, which is quite a complex one where you have some ETS advantage on credits when you are, I would say, using green hydrogen in your refined products.

現在用氫氣，不要──我的意思是我還在──那裡。事實上，這一切都與需求在哪裡有關。歐洲有需求，我們是歐洲的煉油商，因為有一項政策，這是一項相當複雜的政策，當你在精煉產品中使用綠氫時，你在信貸方面有一些 ETS 優勢。

So as we are paying quite high, an increased CO2 burden in Europe, you can find a way to not only promote green hydrogen, but having some credit, so it makes things economically viable.

因此，由於我們在歐洲付出了相當高的代價，增加了二氧化碳負擔，因此您可以找到一種方法，不僅可以推廣綠氫，而且可以獲得一些信用，從而使事情在經濟上可行。

Again, it's completely linked to these framework, European framework. Is there today demand for green hydrogen as itself without this type of framework? No. The reality is no. So that's why you have more supply than demand. The question for us is, today, I mentioned the volume, we'll see what will be the price at which we can be delivered, knowing that we don't want ammonia, we want hydrogen, which is a little you have -- you have to transform ammonia.

同樣，它與這些框架、歐洲框架完全相關。如果沒有這種類型的框架，今天是否還會有對綠氫本身的需求？不，事實並非如此。這就是為什麼供應多於需求的原因。我們的問題是，今天，我提到了數量，我們將看看我們可以交付的價格是多少，知道我們不需要氨，我們需要氫氣，這是你所擁有的一點——你必須轉化氨。

Where does it come from? At the end of the day, my view is that it will mainly come from local European producers, U.S., that will be a mix. It's not so easy to manage all these. We'll see because there are also today some uncertainty because the regulation, for example, in the U.S. is not truly completely approved. So is a green hydrogen produced in the U.S. exactly acceptable as a green hydrogen in Europe? There is a regulatory debate. That's one of the debate.

它從何而來？歸根結底，我的觀點是，它將主要來自歐洲當地生產商和美國生產商，這將是一個混合體。管理這一切並不是那麼容易。我們拭目以待，因為今天還存在一些不確定性，因為該法規（例如在美國）尚未真正完全獲得批准。那麼，美國生產的綠色氫能在歐洲完全被接受為綠氫嗎？存在監管爭論。這是爭論之一。

We also know that there are some big plants being built in the Middle East. So for me, it's a good way to see at which price we can deliver these volumes to Europe. So we cannot say you more because we have received all of this, we are working on it. It will take 6 months probably to better qualify them. But we are working actively.

我們也知道中東正在建造一些大型工廠。因此，對我來說，這是了解我們可以以什麼價格向歐洲交付這些數量的好方法。所以我們不能對你說更多，因為我們已經收到了所有這些，我們正在努力。可能需要 6 個月的時間才能更好地獲得資格。但我們正在積極工作。

And you have different type of producers. You have the large hydrogen producers, but you have also a lot of developers. So we are looking to that. And we will give you more information. I know a lot of people are looking to our tender to better understand where is the market. So we'll give more information when we have them. We'll not get it at $3 per kilogram, just to -- but -- and under $6, it will be okay. We'll see if they find a challenge.

而且你有不同類型的生產者。你有大型氫氣生產商，但也有很多開發商。所以我們正在尋找這一點。我們將為您提供更多資訊。我知道很多人都希望透過我們的招標來更好地了解市場在哪裡。因此，當我們掌握這些資訊時，我們會提供更多資訊。我們不會以每公斤 3 美元的價格買到它，只是——但是——如果低於 6 美元，那就沒問題了。我們將看看他們是否找到了挑戰。

Okay. Maybe one of the last one. Bertrand?

好的。也許是最後之一。伯特蘭？

Bertrand Hodee, Kepler Cheuvreux. Two small questions left. Can you update us on the progress you're making on your Oman LNG bunkering project and how this project is innovative? If I remember well, it is fully electrified.

伯特蘭霍迪，開普勒舍弗勒。還剩下兩個小問題。您能否向我們介紹一下您在阿曼液化天然氣加註專案上取得的最新進展以及專案的創新之處？如果我沒記錯的話，它是完全帶電的。

And the second question is on Shell SPDC exit in Nigeria. I haven't seen any press release from Total following that decision. I assume that you will exit as well. Can we assume it is under the same terms? Or the negotiations that needs to be done for Total -- to TotalEnergies to...

第二個問題是關於殼牌SPDC退出奈及利亞的問題。在做出這項決定後，我還沒有看到道達爾發布任何新聞稿。我想你也會退出。我們可以假設它是在相同的條件下嗎？或者道達爾需要與 TotalEnergies 進行談判…

No, no. We are on the same way. We want to keep the control of the -- we had the difficulty to be -- the oil part we want to exit. We have the gas. The gas resource needs to be -- are very important for the expansion of an LNG. So we need to find a way to be sure where the gas is developed. So I think the Shell scheme, which is, in fact, to create a sort of SPV for the gas, where we'll keep the economic price, but the cost as well, is a good scheme.

不，不。我們在同一條路上。我們希望保持對我們想要退出的石油部分的控制——我們很難做到這一點。我們有煤氣。天然氣資源對於液化天然氣的擴張非常重要。因此，我們需要找到一種方法來確定天然氣的產地。因此，我認為殼牌計劃實際上是為天然氣創建一種 SPV，我們將保持經濟價格，但成本也保持不變，這是一個很好的計劃。

The difficulty came that SPDC as a company, it's super complex to carve out. The idea initially was to carve out the gas license, it's super complex in the Nigerian system. So we have to be more innovative to do that. But fundamentally, the exit is clear. And we will be able probably to announce soon what we do. But we are aligned, same view with Shell to try to maintain an SPV on the gas.

困難在於 SPDC 作為一家公司，創建起來非常複雜。最初的想法是頒發天然氣許可證，這在尼日利亞系統中非常複雜。因此，我們必須更加創新才能做到這一點。但從根本上來說，退出是明確的。我們可能很快就能宣布我們所做的事情。但我們與殼牌的觀點一致，試圖維持天然氣的 SPV。

And it's aligned with the NNPC, I would say, [GMD], they want -- and again, it's consistent. We cannot launch a new train in LNG and not taking care of the upstream gas and relying on others. We will never manage that because in the Nigerian system, most of the value is in the downstream, not on the upstream. This is where today we have some disconnect with some of our partners. But we are aligned on it.

我想說，它與 NNPC 保持一致，[GMD]，他們想要的——而且，它是一致的。我們不能在不照顧上游天然氣而依賴他人的情況下推出新的液化天然氣列車。我們永遠無法做到這一點，因為在奈及利亞的系統中，大部分價值都在下游，而不是上游。這就是今天我們與一些合作夥伴存在一些脫節的地方。但我們對此是一致的。

Fundamentally because producing this oil in the Niger delta is not in line with our HSE policies. It's a real difficulty. So we have some buyers. but we want to put that in order. And we were waiting to see -- we wanted to respect Shell first before to move ourselves, with -- in connection with Nigerian authorities because at the end, we need the approval.

從根本上來說，因為在尼日爾三角洲生產這種石油不符合我們的 HSE 政策。這確實是一個困難。所以我們有一些買家。但我們想把它整理好。我們在等著看——我們想先尊重殼牌，然後再與尼日利亞當局聯繫，因為最終我們需要獲得批准。

So I went to Nigeria and to Lagos. We discussed. And we want to do that in, I would say, in partnership, not aggressively. If you are aggressive, they can stop you. We have the right or not, then it's a mess. So we want to do that in good intelligence with the Nigerian authorities.

所以我去了奈及利亞和拉各斯。我們討論過了。我想說，我們希望透過夥伴關係來做到這一點，而不是激進地做到這一點。如果你有攻擊性，他們可以阻止你。我們有沒有權利，那就亂了。因此，我們希望與尼日利亞當局一起在充分情報的情況下做到這一點。

Oman LNG, you are the one who follow us very carefully. It's a decision we have to take in '24. Do we proceed or not? The reality is that we have that option, of course, and which is a good and attractive option. But Oman has other plans as well to develop another train on Oman LNG. So there is a debate of allocation of the gas today. We will do that as well in connection with the Omani authorities.

阿曼液化天然氣，您是非常細心地關注我們的人。這是我們必須在 24 年做出的決定。我們繼續還是不繼續？現實是我們當然有這個選擇，這是一個很好且有吸引力的選擇。但阿曼還有其他計劃，即開發另一條阿曼液化天然氣列車。因此，今天存在關於天然氣分配的爭論。我們也將與阿曼當局一起這樣做。

A very small one. It's a follow-up on Nigeria, on Train 7. Do you believe there will be enough gas? Or the other way to say that is that the plant will be delayed if there is no enough gas, and when do you anticipate Train 7 in Nigeria to start up?

一個非常小的。這是 7 號列車上尼日利亞的後續行動。您相信會有足夠的汽油嗎？或者換句話說，如果沒有足夠的天然氣，工廠就會延遲，您預計尼日利亞的7號列車何時啟動？

I think I answered to you in my previous answer. Okay. It's part of the story of the gas. There is -- I said clearly to my colleagues and to Nigeria, it will be crazy to have a train with no gas. So I want the gas. But the gas is part of all these developments.

我想我在之前的回答中已經回答過你了。好的。這是氣體故事的一部分。我明確地對我的同事和尼日利亞說過，擁有一列沒有汽油的火車將是瘋狂的。所以我想要瓦斯。但天然氣是所有這些發展的一部分。

And okay, that's one of the complexity. We are working actively on this one.

好吧，這就是複雜性之一。我們正在積極致力於這項工作。

Okay. I think we are -- we covered everything.

好的。我認為我們——我們涵蓋了一切。

Yes. So it's exactly 11:45. I know that we have our Norwegian friends this afternoon in London, that you will rush to listen to -- you know that we are in good connections. We have put our sequence before earlier this morning, we asked you to come, not to have any overlap. So we take care of you. So it's -- the 2 teams are connecting regularly in order to organize it for you.

是的。現在正好是 11 點 45 分。我知道今天下午我們的挪威朋友在倫敦，你們會急於聆聽——你們知道我們關係很好。我們已經在今天早上早些時候安排了我們的順序，我們要求你們來，不要有任何重疊。所以我們會照顧你。所以，這兩個團隊會定期聯繫，以便為您組織活動。

So thank you for your attendance this morning. Thank you for -- honestly, as a conclusion, I would say we have a clear strategy, we are consistent in terms of execution. We don't change. I think it's a clear message. And I think in this energy business, maybe because I'm there for 10 years and for some years, my lesson is, let's be -- stick on what you think.

感謝您今天早上的出席。謝謝你們——老實說，作為結論，我想說我們有一個明確的策略，我們在執行上是一致的。我們不改變。我認為這是一個明確的訊息。我認為在這個能源產業，也許是因為我已經在那裡工作了 10 年，也有幾年了，我的教訓是，讓我們堅持你的想法。

And including in the distribution policy, try to establish a clear framework rather than moving around permanently. I think it took time to me to understand it, but no, I'm there and I'm sticking on it. So maybe for the hedge funds, it's not a lot of fun, but for our long-term shareholders, it's a lot of fun. It's better. And we are more targeting this type of shareholders for making these companies a success. Thank you.

包括在分配政策上，盡量建立一個清晰的框架，而不是一成不變。我想我花了一些時間來理解它，但不，我就在那裡並且我會堅持下去。因此，也許對於對沖基金來說，這不是很有趣，但對於我們的長期股東來說，卻很有趣。好多了。我們更針對這類股東，讓這些公司成功。謝謝。