特靈科技 (TT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Trane Technologies Q3 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Julianne, and I will be your operator for the call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.歡迎參加特靈科技 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫朱莉安，我將擔任您的通話接線生。（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Zac Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Zac Nagle。

Thanks, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies' third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We are also recording and archiving this call on our website.

謝謝，接線生。早安，感謝您參加特靈科技 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議正在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網路直播，您可以在其中找到隨附的簡報。我們也在我們的網站上記錄並存檔了這通通話。

Please go to slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from anticipated results.

請轉到投影片 2。今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。

This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release. Joining me on today's call are Dave Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Chris Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO.

本簡報還包括非公認會計準則衡量標準，這些衡量標準在我們新聞稿所附的財務表格中進行了解釋。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Dave Regnery；克里斯‧庫恩（Chris Kuehn），執行副總裁兼財務長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave. Dave?

這樣，我會將電話轉給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Zach, and everyone for joining today's call. Please turn to slide number 3. I'd like to begin with a few minutes on our purpose-driven strategy, which enables our differentiated financial results over time. Climate change is occurring much faster than anticipated, affecting people and communities around the world. As we saw here in North Carolina, just a few weeks ago, urgent and transformative action is needed to reduce emissions and limit global warming. That's where Trane Technologies comes in.

感謝札克和大家參加今天的電話會議。請翻到第 3 張投影片。我想先用幾分鐘介紹一下我們的目標驅動策略，隨著時間的推移，該策略使我們能夠實現差異化的財務表現。氣候變遷的發生速度比預期快得多，影響世界各地的人民和社區。正如我們幾週前在北卡羅來納州看到的那樣，需要採取緊急和變革性的行動來減少排放和限制全球暖化。這就是特靈科技的用武之地。

Through our innovation, we are helping our customers reduce energy and emissions. When you consider that in a typical building, approximately 30% of the energy after the meter is wasted, it's a massive opportunity. And for our customers, it's grain for grain, good for the planet, and good for the bottom line. With our relentless innovation, consistent execution and uplifting culture, we are positioned to deliver a leading growth profile and differentiated financial results over the long term and build a more sustainable future.

透過我們的創新，我們正在幫助客戶減少能源和排放。考慮到在典型的建築中，計量表後大約 30% 的能源被浪費了，這是一個巨大的機會。對我們的客戶來說，這是一粒一粒的，有利於地球，也有利於利潤。憑藉著不懈的創新、始終如一的執行力和積極向上的文化，我們有能力實現長期領先的成長態勢和差異化的財務業績，並建立更永續的未來。

Please turn to slide number 4. We delivered strong performance in the third quarter, extending our track record of leading revenue and EPS growth among industrials. Our global team delivered 11% organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 120 basis points and adjusted EPS growth of 21%.

請翻到第 4 張投影片。我們在第三季取得了強勁的業績，延續了我們在工業中領先的營收和每股盈餘成長記錄。我們的全球團隊實現了 11% 的有機收入成長，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率成長了 120 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘成長了 21%。

Enterprise organic bookings were very strong at $5.2 billion, the second highest quarter in the company's history, up 5% in the quarter and up 13% on a two-year stack. To put this into perspective, bookings were only about $120 million or 2% below our highest bookings quarter in Q2 of this year.

企業有機預訂非常強勁，達到 52 億美元，是公司歷史上第二高的季度，本季成長 5%，兩年成長 13%。從這個角度來看，預訂量僅比今年第二季的最高預訂量季度低約 1.2 億美元，即 2%。

Organic bookings in Americas commercial HVAC this quarter were also the second highest in company's history, up low single digits and up mid-teens on a two-year stack. Q3 bookings were only $100 million below the highest bookings quarter in Q1 of 2024.

本季美洲商業暖通空調的有機預訂量也是公司歷史上第二高的，在兩年來的歷史上成長了低個位數和十幾位數。第三季的預訂量僅比 2024 年第一季最高預訂量季低 1 億美元。

Net absolute bookings remain very strong. Given the tremendous growth we've seen over the past four years, and the variation in order timing, comps will likely continue to be somewhat lumpy. While absolute bookings are expected to remain very strong, backlog also remains very strong at $7.2 billion, up from $6.9 billion at year-end 2023, and we expect to exit 2024 with highly elevated backlog. We encourage investors to look at absolute bookings, revenues, and backlog, along with growth rates in order to gain a clear picture of our strength.

淨絕對預訂量仍然非常強勁。鑑於我們在過去四年中看到的巨大增長以及訂單時間的變化，比較可能會繼續有些不穩定。雖然絕對預訂量預計將保持非常強勁，但積壓訂單也仍然非常強勁，達到 72 億美元，高於 2023 年底的 69 億美元，我們預計 2024 年的積壓訂單將大幅增加。我們鼓勵投資者專注於絕對預訂量、收入和積壓訂單以及成長率，以便清楚了解我們的實力。

Robust performance continues to be led by our Americas commercial HVAC business, where revenue growth has been exceptionally strong and consistent. Revenues for each of the first three quarters of 2024 are up 50% plus on a three-year stack, inclusive of both equipment and services. And we expect the fourth quarter revenue to be up 50% on a three-year stack as well.

我們的美洲商業暖通空調業務持續引領強勁的業績，該業務的營收成長異常強勁且持續。2024 年前三個季度的收入連續三年增長 50% 以上，其中包括設備和服務。我們預計第四季的營收在三年內也將成長 50%。

We are building a strong track record of market outperformance; particularly as increasing project complexity plays to our unique strengths in innovation and direct sales and service. Case in point, organic bookings and revenue for our applied solutions in the Americas are both up well over 100% over the past four years. Our installed base is expanding rapidly, adding an estimated 8 to 10 multiple of higher-margin services revenue over the life of the equipment.

我們正在建立卓越的市場表現記錄；特別是隨著專案複雜性的增加發揮了我們在創新、直銷和服務方面的獨特優勢。舉個例子，過去四年來，我們在美洲應用解決方案的有機預訂量和收入均增加了 100% 以上。我們的安裝基礎正在迅速擴大，在設備的使用壽命內，高利潤服務收入預計將增加 8 至 10 倍。

Our strong performance throughout 2024 has enabled us to accelerate incremental investments, while delivering full year leverage above our long-term framework of 25% plus. We've stepped up the pace of investments in the second half of 2024, further strengthening our position for 2025 and beyond. Given our strong performance and positive outlook, we are raising our full year organic revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. Chris will cover our guidance update in more detail later in the presentation.

2024 年的強勁表現使我們能夠加速增量投資，同時實現高於 25% 以上長期框架的全年槓桿率。我們在 2024 年下半年加快了投資步伐，進一步鞏固了我們在 2025 年及以後的地位。鑑於我們強勁的業績和積極的前景，我們正在提高全年有機收入和調整後的每股盈餘指引。克里斯將在稍後的演示中更詳細地介紹我們的指導更新。

Please go to slide number 5. In our Americas segment, commercial HVAC has delivered exceptional bookings and revenues throughout the year, as I've highlighted on the prior slide, with broad-based strength across vertical markets. Revenue was very strong, up nearly 20% in the quarter, with equipment and services up nearly 25% and mid-teens, respectively. In residential, the team delivered very strong results with bookings up high 20s and revenues up low teens.

請轉到第 5 張投影片。正如我在上一張投影片中所強調的那樣，在我們的美洲細分市場，商業暖通空調全年交付了出色的預訂量和收入，在垂直市場上具有廣泛的實力。營收非常強勁，本季成長了近 20%，其中設備和服務分別成長了近 25% 和 15%。在住宅領域，該團隊取得了非常強勁的業績，預訂量高達 20 多美元，收入則高達 10 美元以上。

Turning to transport. The business performed as expected. Bookings were strong, up high 20s. Revenues were down high single digits, consistent with our guide. In EMEA, commercial HVAC strength continues to be driven by demand for our innovation, with bookings up mid-single digits in the quarter and up high teens on a two-year stack. Revenue was also strong, up low teens. Our transport business performed in line with our expectations, with bookings up mid-teens and revenues flat.

轉向交通。業務表現符合預期。預訂量強勁，高達 20 多份。收入下降了高個位數，這與我們的指南一致。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，商業暖通空調的實力繼續受到對我們創新的需求的推動，本季度的預訂量增長了中個位數，兩年的預訂量增長了十幾位數。收入也很強勁，成長了十幾倍。我們的運輸業務表現符合我們的預期，預訂量成長了十幾歲，收入持平。

Turning to Asia. Results were mixed between China and the rest of Asia. Starting with the rest of Asia, bookings and revenues were solid, up low single digits and up mid-single digits, respectively. China had a challenging quarter, which I'll discuss in more detail on slide 8.

轉向亞洲。中國和亞洲其他國家的結果好壞參半。從亞洲其他地區開始，預訂量和收入表現穩定，分別實現低個位數成長和中個位數成長。中國經歷了一個充滿挑戰的季度，我將在幻燈片 8 中更詳細地討論這一點。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 6. This slide provides a snapshot of our performance in the third quarter and highlights continued strong execution top to bottom. Organic revenues were up 11%, adjusted EBITDA margin was up 120 basis points, and adjusted EPS was up 21%.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 6 張投影片。這張投影片提供了我們第三季業績的快照，並強調了自上而下持續強勁的執行力。有機營收成長 11%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 120 個基點，調整後每股盈餘成長 21%。

At an enterprise level, we delivered strong organic revenue growth in both equipment and services, up double digits and low teens, respectively. Our high-performance flywheel continues to pay dividends with relentless investments in innovation, driving strong top line growth, margin expansion, and EPS growth.

在企業層面，我們在設備和服務方面實現了強勁的有機收入成長，分別實現了兩位數和十幾位數的成長。我們的高性能飛輪透過對創新的不懈投資持續帶來紅利，推動強勁的營收成長、利潤率擴張和每股盈餘成長。

Please turn to slide number 7. At the enterprise level, we delivered robust volume growth with strong incrementals, positive price realization and productivity that more than offset inflation and continued high levels of business reinvestment.

請翻到第 7 張投影片。在企業層面，我們實現了強勁的銷售成長、強勁的增量、積極的價格實現和生產力，足以抵消通貨膨脹和持續高水準的業務再投資。

In our Americas segment, we delivered about 12 points of volume and 3 points of price. Strong volume growth in our commercial HVAC and residential businesses was partially offset by muted performance in our transport business. Adjusted operating margin expansion of 130 basis points was driven by volume growth, productivity and price realization, more than offsetting inflation and high levels of business reinvestment.

在美洲市場，我們的銷售量提高了約 12 個點，價格提高了 3 個點。我們的商業暖通空調和住宅業務銷售的強勁成長被運輸業務的疲軟業績部分抵消。銷售成長、生產力和價格實現推動調整後營業利潤率擴大 130 個基點，足以抵消通貨膨脹和高水準的業務再投資。

In our EMEA segment, we delivered about 7 points of volume and 1 point of price with strong volume in our commercial HVAC business. Adjusted operating margin expansion of 140 basis points was driven by volume growth, productivity, and price realization more than offsetting inflation and high levels of business reinvestment.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們的商用暖通空調業務銷量強勁，銷量提高了約 7 個百分點，價格提高了 1 個百分點。調整後的營業利潤率成長了 140 個基點，這是由銷售成長、生產力和價格實現所推動的，這些成長足以抵消通貨膨脹和高水準的業務再投資。

In our Asia Pacific segment, volumes declined by approximately 22 points. The team was able to deleverage within gross margin rates.

在我們的亞太地區，銷售量下降了約 22 個百分點。該團隊能夠在毛利率範圍內去槓桿化。

Now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在，我想把電話轉回戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 8. Our outlook is largely unchanged as we move closer to the end of the year with America's commercial HVAC and residential a bit stronger and Asia Pacific more muted. We've talked about the strength of our Americas commercial HVAC business at length, so I won't go into a lot more detail. We expect the strength to continue in the fourth quarter with three-year stacked revenue growth of approximately 50%, consistent with our performance each quarter this year.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第8張幻燈片。隨著年底的臨近，我們的前景基本上沒有變化，美國的商業暖通空調和住宅市場稍為強勁，而亞太地區則更為平靜。我們已經詳細討論了美洲商業暖通空調業務的實力，因此我不會詳細介紹。我們預計第四季將繼續保持強勁勢頭，三年疊加收入成長約 50%，與我們今年每季的業績一致。

Our residential business delivered stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter, driven by the factors highlighted on the slide. We continue to expect a modest prebuy of 410A in 2024, primarily impacting Q1 of 2025. We've raised our full year 2024 revenue growth outlook to up high single digits, up from mid-single digits prior.

在幻燈片中強調的因素的推動下，我們的住宅業務在第三季度實現了強於預期的成長。我們繼續預期 2024 年 410A 的預購量將適度，主要影響 2025 年第一季。我們將 2024 年全年營收成長預期從先前的中個位數上調至高個位數。

In our Americas transport business, ACT continues to forecast the 2024 transport markets to be down mid-teens, and we expect to outperform. Looking to 2025, ACT has moderated their trailer growth expectations to up low single digits. This includes a weak first half and a stronger second half, and we largely agree with that view. We've been investing heavily in our transport business. And as the markets recover, we expect to emerge well positioned to outperform. Overall, the changes to our outlook in the Americas segment are favorable, and we reflected this in our raised guidance for the year.

在我們的美洲運輸業務中，ACT 繼續預測 2024 年運輸市場將下降 15%左右，但我們預計將跑贏大盤。展望 2025 年，ACT 已將拖車成長預期下調至低個位數。這包括上半年的疲軟和下半年的強勁，我們基本上同意這一觀點。我們一直在運輸業務上投入大量資金。隨著市場復甦，我們預計將有能力跑贏大盤。總體而言，我們對美洲業務前景的改變是有利的，我們在今年上調的指引中反映了這一點。

Turning to EMEA. The business performed as expected, and there's no change to our outlook. Asia represents about 8% of our overall revenue mix with about 50% in China and 50% in the rest of Asia. The rest of Asia performed in line with our expectations in the third quarter, and we expect continued modest growth in Q4 as well.

轉向歐洲、中東和非洲地區。業務表現符合預期，我們的前景沒有改變。亞洲約占我們總收入的 8%，其中中國約佔 50%，亞洲其他地區約佔 50%。亞洲其他地區第三季的表現符合我們的預期，我們預計第四季也將繼續溫和成長。

Our China commercial HVAC business came in below our expectations in the third quarter, primarily related to two factors. First, the non-residential markets in China deteriorated meaningfully since the June time frame, and bookings and revenues were negatively impacted as a result. Second, we made the prudent decision to tighten our credit policies in China, primarily related to down payments and progress payments.

第三季我們的中國商用暖通空調業務低於我們的預期，主要與兩個因素有關。首先，自 6 月以來，中國非住宅市場大幅惡化，預訂量和收入因此受到負面影響。其次，我們審慎決定收緊國內信貸政策，主要涉及首付和進度款。

Despite the significant revenue decline in China, the team maintained deleverage within gross margin rates. While China will remain a dynamic environment, we expect some improvements in the fourth quarter as our customers and sales teams navigate the market and policy changes. We have an outstanding team in China that has delivered leading results for many years, and I remain confident in our team's ability to outperform over the long term.

儘管中國收入大幅下降，團隊仍維持毛利率範圍內的去槓桿化。儘管中國仍將是一個充滿活力的環境，但隨著我們的客戶和銷售團隊應對市場和政策變化，我們預計第四季會出現一些改善。我們在中國擁有一支優秀的團隊，多年來取得了領先的業績，我對我們團隊長期表現出色的能力充滿信心。

Now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris. Chris?

現在，我想把電話轉回給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 9. We continue to target top quartile performance on organic revenue and adjusted EPS growth for the full year and believe we're on track to achieve those objectives. Given our continued strong performance, positive outlook, and exceptional backlog, we're raising our organic revenue guidance to approximately 11% from our prior guide of 10%.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第9張投影片。我們繼續以全年有機收入和調整後每股收益成長的前四分之一為目標，並相信我們有望實現這些目標。鑑於我們持續強勁的業績、積極的前景和異常的積壓，我們將有機收入指引從先前的 10% 提高到約 11%。

We're also raising our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance by $0.30 to approximately $11.10, up from $10.80 prior. We're well positioned to deliver our fourth consecutive year of adjusted earnings per share growth of 20% or greater. Between our strong year-to-date revenue performance and the addition of 2 small acquisitions that we made in the third quarter, we expect M&A to contribute approximately 50 basis points to 100 basis points to revenue in 2024, which we expect to result in about 3 points of negative impact on reported versus organic leverage for the year.

我們還將全年調整後每股收益指引從先前的 10.80 美元上調 0.30 美元，達到約 11.10 美元。我們有能力實現連續第四年調整後每股收益成長 20% 或更高。考慮到我們今年迄今強勁的營收表現以及第三季進行的2 項小型收購，我們預計併購將為2024 年的營收貢獻約50 個基點到100 個基點，我們預計這將帶來約50 個基點到100 個基點的收入對本年度報告槓桿率與有機槓桿率的負面影響有 3 點。

We also expect a more moderate negative impact from FX for the year at less than 1 point, effectively offsetting the positive revenue impact of M&A. Net organic and reported revenue guidance is the same at approximately 11%. We expect full year organic leverage of approximately 30%, up from our prior guidance of 25% plus. We continue to expect free cash flow conversion to adjusted net earnings of 100% or greater. Absolute free cash flow is expected to be higher, reflecting our higher adjusted earnings guidance.

我們也預期今年外匯的負面影響將較為溫和，不會超過 1 個百分點，有效抵銷併購帶來的正面收入影響。淨有機收入和報告收入指引相同，均為約 11%。我們預計全年有機槓桿率約為 30%，高於我們先前 25% 以上的指引。我們繼續預期自由現金流轉換為調整後淨利潤為 100% 或更高。絕對自由現金流預計會更高，反映了我們更高的調整後獲利指引。

For the fourth quarter, we expect organic revenue growth of approximately 7% and adjusted EPS of approximately $2.50. Embedded in this guidance is a step-up in investments and higher incentive-based compensation, reflecting strong performance in 2024. Please see page 18 for additional details related to our guidance that may be helpful for modeling purposes.

對於第四季度，我們預計有機收入將成長約 7%，調整後每股收益約 2.50 美元。該指引包含了加大投資力度和提高基於激勵的薪酬，反映了 2024 年的強勁業績。請參閱第 18 頁，以了解與我們的指南相關的其他詳細信息，這些資訊可能有助於建模。

Please go to slide number 10. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy, focused on consistently deploying excess cash to opportunities with the highest returns for shareholders. First, we continue to strengthen our core business through relentless business reinvestment. Second, we're committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet that provides us with continued optionality as our markets evolve. And third, we expect to consistently deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our balanced approach includes strategic M&A that further improves long-term shareholder returns, and share repurchases as the stock trades below our calculated intrinsic value.

請轉到第 10 號投影片。我們仍致力於平衡資本配置策略，專注於持續將多餘現金配置為為股東帶來最高回報的機會。首先，我們透過不斷的業務再投資繼續強化我們的核心業務。其次，我們致力於維持強勁的資產負債表，隨著市場的發展，這為我們提供了持續的選擇空間。第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移，將持續部署 100% 的多餘現金。我們的平衡方法包括進一步提高長期股東回報的策略併購，以及在股票交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值時回購股票。

Please turn to slide number 11. Year-to-date through October, we've deployed or committed approximately $2 billion in cash, with about $800 million to dividends, $230 million to M&A, and about $1 billion to share repurchases. We have $1.5 billion remaining under the current share repurchase authorization, providing us with strong optionality as our shares remain attractive, trading below our calculated intrinsic value. We continue to have an active M&A pipeline, with potential value-accretive opportunities to further improve long-term shareholder returns.

請翻到第11張投影片。今年迄今到 10 月份，我們已部署或承諾了約 20 億美元現金，其中約 8 億美元用於股息，2.3 億美元用於併購，約 10 億美元用於股票回購。目前的股票回購授權還剩 15 億美元，這為我們提供了強大的選擇權，因為我們的股票仍然具有吸引力，且交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值。我們繼續擁有活躍的併購管道，擁有潛在的增值機會，可以進一步提高長期股東回報。

Our outlook for 2024 cash deployment remains unchanged at approximately $2.5 billion. Our strong free cash flow, liquidity, balance sheet, and significant share repurchase authorization gives us excellent capital allocation optionality moving forward.

我們對 2024 年現金部署的預期維持在約 25 億美元不變。我們強大的自由現金流、流動性、資產負債表和大量的股票回購授權為我們提供了良好的未來資本配置選擇。

Now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在，我想把電話轉回戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please go to slide number 13. We discussed the transport markets in our outlook discussion on slide number 8, so I won't cover them again here. However, we've continued to provide this slide with additional details for your convenience.

謝謝，克里斯。請轉到第 13 號投影片。我們在第 8 號幻燈片的展望討論中討論了運輸市場，因此我不會在這裡再次討論它們。不過，為了您的方便，我們繼續在這張投影片中提供更多詳細資訊。

Please turn to slide number 14. We operate our transport business for the long term. And while we will continue to manage through a down cycle in 2024, this is a great business with a bright future. ACT projects a modest trailer market rebound in 2025, mid-teens growth in 2026 and 2027, and continued strong markets in 2028 and 2029.

請翻到第14張投影片。我們長期經營運輸業務。雖然我們將在 2024 年繼續度過經濟下行週期，但這是一項有著光明未來的偉大業務。ACT 預計拖車市場將在 2025 年出現小幅反彈，在 2026 年和 2027 年實現中位數成長，並在 2028 年和 2029 年持續強勁。

We're directionally aligned with these projections. We have a diversified transport business globally and opportunities to grow across the portfolio with leading innovation, strong execution through our business operating system, and a world-class dealer network, we're well positioned to outperform in any market environment.

我們與這些預測方向一致。我們在全球擁有多元化的運輸業務，並透過領先的創新、業務操作系統的強大執行力以及世界一流的經銷商網路實現整個產品組合的成長機會，我們處於有利位置，能夠在任何市場環境中脫穎而出。

Turning to slide number 15. We expect to provide 2025 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call. However, given our strong bookings, backlog, and growing pipeline of opportunities, visibility into 2025 has steadily increased. We thought it would be constructive to provide our early views on 2025 as another year of healthy growth. Our commercial HVAC businesses are executing well. Our world-class direct sales and service teams are a clear competitive advantage, enabling us to quickly pivot across vertical markets to capture growth opportunities.

轉到第 15 號投影片。我們預計在第四季財報電話會議上提供 2025 年指引。然而，鑑於我們強勁的預訂量、積壓訂單以及不斷增長的機會管道，2025 年的前景已穩步提高。我們認為，提供我們對 2025 年又一個健康增長年的初步看法將具有建設性。我們的商業暖通空調業務運作良好。我們世界一流的直銷和服務團隊具有明顯的競爭優勢，使我們能夠快速跨垂直市場抓住成長機會。

We have the broadest and most innovative portfolio in the industry, and we're relentlessly reinvesting in our business for growth. As we look at market opportunities, we're in the early innings of a strong multiyear, CapEx cycle. We're also in early innings on the journey to decarbonize hundreds of billions of square feet across the built environment. Increasing complexity of these project opportunities plays to our unique strengths, and we're seeing this in our bookings, backlog, and pipeline of projects.

我們擁有業內最廣泛、最具創新性的產品組合，並且我們不斷地對我們的業務進行再投資以實現成長。當我們審視市場機會時，我們正處於強勁的多年資本支出週期的早期階段。我們也處於對數千億平方英尺的建築環境進行脫碳之旅的早期階段。這些專案機會日益複雜，發揮了我們獨特的優勢，我們在專案的預訂、積壓和管道中看到了這一點。

Net, we see another strong year ahead for commercial HVAC in the Americas and in EMEA. In Asia and more specifically, China, which is more than 90% commercial HVAC, the macro is more dynamic. However, with China at roughly 4% of our portfolio, we expect strength in the Americas and EMEA to more than offset a challenging backdrop for the region.

淨，我們預計美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的商用暖通空調將迎來另一個強勁的一年。在亞洲，更具體地說，在中國，90%以上都是商業暖通空調，宏觀經濟更具活力。然而，由於中國約占我們投資組合的 4%，我們預計美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的實力將足以抵消該地區充滿挑戰的背景。

Turning to residential. We've moved through a period of normalization in 2023 and 2024, and we believe we're returning to a GDP plus framework. While we expect a moderate amount of prebuy in 2024, we expect this to largely impact revenues in the first quarter of 2025. Pricing differentials from the A2L transition should also act as a tailwind as we move through 2025.

轉向住宅。我們已經經歷了 2023 年和 2024 年的正常化時期，我們相信我們正在回歸 GDP 加框架。雖然我們預計 2024 年會有適度的預購，但我們預計這將在很大程度上影響 2025 年第一季的營收。當我們邁入 2025 年時，A2L 過渡帶來的定價差異也應該起到推動作用。

Turning to our Americas transport business, which is about 7% of our revenues, ACT is projecting modest growth, largely in the second half of 2025. That 2025 will be a modest tailwind for the enterprise. We continue to lead with innovation, which yields healthy pricing opportunities, and our business operating system is prime to stay ahead of inflationary pressures. Underpinning our enterprise growth is our resilient services business. Services comprise about a third of our enterprise revenues and has averaged high single-digit growth over the past seven years.

至於我們的美洲運輸業務，該業務約占我們收入的 7%，ACT 預計將出現適度成長，主要是在 2025 年下半年。2025 年對於企業來說將是一個溫和的推動力。我們繼續引領創新，從而帶來健康的定價機會，而我們的商業作業系統是領先通膨壓力的主要因素。我們的彈性服務業務支撐著我們的企業發展。服務約占我們企業收入的三分之一，並且在過去七年中平均實現高個位數成長。

We see opportunities for continued growth in services across our portfolio. In particular, we expect strong performance in our commercial HVAC businesses with our large and growing installed base with increased focus on decarbonization. We're seeing increased demand for digital performance optimization and demand side management, where our energy services business shines. All in, we're excited about the opportunities for strong growth again in 2025.

我們看到了整個投資組合中服務持續成長的機會。特別是，我們預計我們的商業暖通空調業務將表現強勁，我們擁有龐大且不斷增長的安裝基礎，並且更加關注脫碳。我們看到對數位效能優化和需求面管理的需求不斷增加，這是我們的能源服務業務的亮點。總而言之，我們對 2025 年再次實現強勁成長的機會感到興奮。

Please go to slide number 16. In summary, we are well positioned to deliver leading performance and differentiated shareholder returns in 2024 and beyond. We recently received the results of our annual employee engagement survey, and engagement was at a record level and in the top quartile compared to external companies. I experienced that engagement firsthand when I see our team members engage with customers around the world. That engaging culture, combined with our leading innovation and proven business operating system continues to set us apart. I'm proud of our team's consistent track record and believe our brightest days are ahead.

請轉到第 16 張投影片。總而言之，我們有能力在 2024 年及以後實現領先的業績和差異化的股東回報。我們最近收到了年度員工敬業度調查的結果，與外部公司相比，敬業度達到了創紀錄的水平，處於前四分之一的水平。當我看到我們的團隊成員與世界各地的客戶互動時，我親身體驗了這種互動。這種引人入勝的文化，加上我們領先的創新和成熟的商業作業系統，繼續使我們與眾不同。我為我們團隊一貫的業績記錄感到自豪，並相信我們最光明的日子就在前方。

And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Scott Davis, Melius Research.

（操作員說明）Scott Davis，Melius Research。

Hey. Good morning, Dave and Chris and Zac.

嘿。早上好，戴夫、克里斯和扎克。

How you doing, Scott?

你好嗎，斯科特？

I'm great. The numbers are good. I'm just trying to figure out a little bit of, perhaps, you can help with some context around data center specifically just since it's so topical right now. Anything you can give us, whether it's growth, orders, materiality to your algorithm. I'm just trying to get my arms around how important that is for you guys for the next year.

我很棒。數字很好。我只是想弄清楚，也許您可以幫助了解一些有關資料中心的背景信息，因為它現在非常熱門。您可以向我們提供的任何信息，無論是增長、訂單還是演算法的重要性。我只是想了解這對你們明年來說有多重要。

Sure. Good question, Scott. Look, Scott, we've been strong in data centers for decades now, okay. So this has always been a very strong vertical for us. And I think we were kind of early adopters in the data center. We had a dedicated team that just focused on data centers, which has really allowed us to continue to remain very strong in that vertical.

當然。好問題，史考特。斯科特，你看，幾十年來我們在數據中心領域一直很強大，好吧。所以這對我們來說一直是一個非常強大的垂直領域。我認為我們是資料中心的早期採用者。我們有一個專注於資料中心的專門團隊，這確實使我們能夠繼續在該垂直領域保持強大的實力。

If you look at data centers, the growth projection that's projected, I mean, if you take the middle there, and there's a lot of numbers out there, you're going to see the data center vertical is going to be growing at the mid-teens for the foreseeable future. And you should expect that Trane Technologies will continue to be very, very strong in this vertical as we have been for a long time.

如果你看看資料中心，預測的成長預測，我的意思是，如果你看中間，那裡有很多數字，你會看到資料中心垂直將在中間成長-在可預見的未來的青少年。您應該期望特靈科技將繼續在這個垂直領域保持非常非常強大的實力，就像我們長期以來一直在的那樣。

So it's important that when you think of data centers, they're probably the most complex systems that we build, okay? We like working direct with the data center customers. We like thinking about it at a system level, okay? You'll hear a lot about different components within the system. We look at the entire system and really help the customers think through optionality that exists for their particular needs based on what they're going to be using in that data center for. And it does depend on what they're going to be using it for.

因此，重要的是，當您想到資料中心時，它們可能是我們建造的最複雜的系統，好嗎？我們喜歡直接與資料中心客戶合作。我們喜歡在系統層面思考它，好嗎？您會聽到很多有關係統內不同組件的資訊。我們著眼於整個系統，並真正幫助客戶根據他們將在該資料中心中使用的用途，思考滿足其特定需求的可選性。這確實取決於他們將用它做什麼。

Chris, I don't know if you want to add --

克里斯，我不知道你是否要添加--

Yeah. What I would add, Scott, is year-to-date in our Americas commercial HVAC business, data centers have provided a lot of growth to bookings. But when you remove data centers from those bookings, the rest of the verticals in aggregate are also up very strong. So we like the broad-based focus of our direct sales force. Data centers is one strong vertical, as we highlighted in our release, there's a number of verticals that have been strong for us this year, almost nearly all of them year-to-date showing strength.

是的。史考特，我要補充的是，今年迄今為止，在我們的美洲商業暖通空調業務中，資料中心為預訂帶來了巨大的成長。但是，當您從這些預訂中刪除資料中心時，其餘垂直行業的整體成長也非常強勁。因此，我們喜歡我們的直銷隊伍的廣泛關注點。數據中心是一個強大的垂直行業，正如我們在新聞稿中強調的那樣，今年有許多垂直行業對我們來說表現強勁，幾乎所有垂直行業今年迄今為止都表現出了強勁的實力。

Okay. That's helpful. And I wish you'd size it for us, but I understand if you don't want to do that, it's totally fine. Just moving to China, guys. Is that market mature enough at this point where we can start to see it, perhaps, moving to more retrofit and services and being a little bit more stable longer term? I understand the down 45% projects can disappear pretty quickly over there. It's been a couple of decades now that you guys have been pretty strong and have a pretty big installed base there. So is that something that you see that kind of becoming a more mature market going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。我希望您能為我們調整尺寸，但我知道如果您不想這樣做，也完全沒問題。夥計們，剛剛搬到中國。這個市場現在是否足夠成熟，我們可以開始看到它，也許，轉向更多的改造和服務，並在長期內變得更加穩定？我知道 45% 的下降項目很快就會消失。幾十年過去了，你們已經相當強大並且擁有相當大的安裝基礎。那麼您認為未來市場會變得更加成熟嗎？

Yeah. I mean we have a service business in China, as you're aware, it's not at the same level that you would see here in the Americas but it's growing. Look, specifically in China, I know I've read a lot of the pre-reports here. Let me just be very specific. Look, our business in China, I think we all understand what's happening in the markets in China, and we were obviously impacted by that.

是的。我的意思是，我們在中國有服務業務，正如您所知，它的水平與您在美洲看到的水平不同，但它正在增長。看，特別是在中國，我知道我已經閱讀了這裡的許多預先報告。讓我說得非常具體。看，我們在中國的業務，我想我們都了解中國市場正在發生的事情，我們顯然受到了影響。

The second is that we thought it was very prudent for us to tighten our credit policies and specifically around down payments and progress payments. So for example, if a customer wants to give us an order and they don't give us a down payment with that, we will not accept the order. If we have a product that's complete and ready to ship to the customer and the customer doesn't provide the proper down payment -- or progress payments, we will not ship that product to the customer.

第二，我們認為收緊信貸政策，特別是在首付和進度付款方面，是非常謹慎的。例如，如果客戶想要給我們訂單，但他們沒有給我們預付款，我們將不會接受該訂單。如果我們有一個完整的產品並準備好運送給客戶，而客戶沒有提供適當的首付款或進度付款，我們將不會將該產品運送給客戶。

So look, long term, we know this is the right decision to make. We have a great team in China. It's performed exceptionally well for a long period of time. And I have 100% confidence that we'll continue to outperform the market there. Our teams are just going to be working through this in the fourth quarter and these changes. And look, it's the right decision to make for that particular region at this particular time.

因此，從長遠來看，我們知道這是正確的決定。我們在中國擁有一支優秀的團隊。它在很長一段時間內表現得異常出色。我有 100% 的信心，我們將繼續跑贏那裡的市場。我們的團隊將在第四季度解決這個問題和這些變化。看，這是在這個特定時間為該特定地區做出的正確決定。

Okay. Makes sense. I'll pass it on. Best of luck, guys.

好的。有道理。我會把它傳遞下去。祝你好運，夥計們。

Thanks, Scott. See in December.

謝謝，斯科特。十二月見。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. I wanted to ask on services, which continues to be really strong, up low teens again here in Q3. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about the mechanics of the service business? What is the lag between when you sell the equipment to when it starts generating service revenue. Anything you could talk about on service margins. And then it seems like a lot of the reinvestment the company is making is in that service side. So just what are you spending on to better position the company to capture more of that revenue?

謝謝。我想詢問服務方面的問題，服務仍然非常強勁，在第三季度再次達到低十幾歲。能談談服務業務的機制嗎？從您出售設備到開始產生服務收入之間的時間間隔是多少？關於服務利潤你可以談論的任何事情。然後，該公司正在進行的大量再投資似乎都集中在服務方面。那麼，為了讓公司更好地定位以獲取更多收入，您將花費哪些資金？

Sure. I'll start and I'll let Chris answer some of the margin questions. But look, we love our service business. It's a third of the company. And it's very, very resilient, okay, over the last seven years, its compound annual growth rate is high single digits. So it's a very, very competitive weapon that we have within Trane Technologies. And we continue to, as you've noted, invest heavily in it. .

當然。我將開始，讓克里斯回答一些邊緣問題。但是看，我們熱愛我們的服務業務。這是公司的三分之一。而且它非常非常有彈性，在過去七年裡，它的複合年增長率是高個位數。因此，這是我們特靈科技內部非常非常有競爭力的武器。正如您所指出的，我們將繼續對此進行大量投資。。

Look, as far as the timing as to when a product gets installed, specifically on the applied side to when service starts, it varies, okay, depending on what the warranty is on a particular product. A lot of customers will have extended warranties. That's why I say it varies. And obviously, that would vary around the world. But think of it year two, year three, it starts to ramp up. And by the way, even if it's under extended warranty, we're going to be doing PM work on these products in many cases. The applied systems are so much more sophisticated today than they were just four or five years ago.

看，就產品安裝的時間而言，特別是在服務開始的應用方面，它會有所不同，好吧，取決於特定產品的保固內容。許多客戶將獲得延長保固。這就是為什麼我說它有所不同。顯然，世界各地的情況都會有所不同。但想想第二年、第三年，它開始加速。順便說一句，即使處於延長保固期，我們也會在許多情況下對這些產品進行 PM 工作。現今的應用系統比四、五年前複雜得多。

And the customers are really demanding that the OEMs do the service on these systems to make sure that they're always performing the way they're designed. And Chris, you and I spoke a lot about connected solutions in the past. And I would tell you that, that's going to be so fundamental to how we continue to drive our service business in the future. I think you could certainly understand that our installed base is increasing. That's the -- that will continue to drive growth. But the connected solutions and making sure that the asset is always performing the way it was designed and consuming energy at that level is so important.

客戶確實要求 OEM 為這些系統提供服務，以確保它們始終按照設計的方式運作。克里斯，你和我過去多次談論過互聯解決方案。我想告訴你，這對我們未來如何繼續推動我們的服務業務至關重要。我想您當然可以理解我們的安裝基礎正在增加。這就是——將繼續推動成長。但互聯解決方案並確保資產始終按照其設計方式運作並在該水準上消耗能源非常重要。

Today and a little bit certainly into the future, an HVAC asset isn't performing not only if it's not cooling properly, not only if it's not heating properly, not only if it's not ventilating properly, but if it's using too much energy. And if you think about that, that's where the opportunity is. And we have done hundreds of energy audits in buildings, and we know that I'll be conservative here and say that 30% of the energy after the meter is being wasted. However, if you are connected to an asset, you could always ensure that it's performing the way it was designed and that's going to continue to be a significant tailwind for our service business well into the future.

今天以及將來，暖通空調資產不僅無法正常冷卻、無法正常加熱、無法正常通風，而且使用過多的能源，也無法發揮作用。如果你仔細想想，這就是機會所在。我們已經對建築物進行了數百次能源審計，我們知道我在這裡會保守地說，電錶後 30% 的能源被浪費了。然而，如果您連接到一項資產，您始終可以確保它按照設計方式運行，這將繼續成為我們服務業務未來的重要推動力。

So Chris, I don't know if you want to talk about margins?

克里斯，我不知道你是否想談利潤率？

Yeah. I'd add with the applied growth over the past four years, Chris, over 100%, that obviously bodes well as we think about that installed base maturing. And as Dave said, two to three years out, starts to build a little bit of a ramp on the services revenues. The Services business, I'll call it, higher margins in the average. So we like that business for that reason as well. And it's a perfect example of where we've accelerated investments over the last few years, but even more so into the second half of this year.

是的。我想補充一下，克里斯過去四年的應用程式成長超過 100%，這顯然是個好兆頭，因為我們認為安裝基礎正在成熟。正如戴夫所說，兩到三年後，服務收入將開始成長。我稱之為服務業務，平均利潤率較高。因此，我們也因此喜歡這項業務。這是我們過去幾年加速投資的完美例子，今年下半年更是如此。

Dave talked about digital connected solutions. That's absolutely one way we're making investments but think about it as capacity as well. I'm not going to focus on factories or plant capacity. I'm going to focus on people. And when you think about sales and service, adding employees from covering verticals to adding service technicians to support our customers with that higher installed base. That's one area where we're really continuing to inflect up in investments and then the tools to support the sales and service team.

戴夫談到了數位互聯解決方案。這絕對是我們進行投資的一種方式，但也將其視為產能。我不會關注工廠或工廠產能。我會把重點放在人身上。當您考慮銷售和服務時，需要增加覆蓋垂直領域的員工和服務技術人員，以透過更高的安裝基礎為我們的客戶提供支援。這是我們真正繼續加大投資以及支持銷售和服務團隊的工具的領域。

So sales support tools, whether it'd be customer relationship tools, order intake tools, billing, collections, you name it. It's all part of what Dave and I coming out of the second quarter, said we're going to accelerate the speed of some of these investments just give us even further confidence on growth over the next couple of years. But it's such a strong business and we're going to keep investing in it.

因此，銷售支援工具，無論是客戶關係工具、訂單接收工具、計費、收款工具，應有盡有。這是戴夫和我在第二季度表示的全部內容，我們將加快其中一些投資的速度，這只會讓我們對未來幾年的成長更有信心。但這是一項如此強大的業務，我們將繼續對其進行投資。

Yeah. One other point, Chris, that I always tell people that some of our service technicians are our best sales associates. As you think about it, our service techs are with our customers every day, and they're building that trusted adviser relationship with our customers. They often see opportunities that the customer can make improvements in their own facilities. So they do a fantastic job for us. But the service business is a strong part of Trane Technologies today and think of it being even stronger tomorrow.

是的。還有一點，克里斯，我總是告訴人們，我們的一些服務技術人員是我們最好的銷售人員。正如您所想，我們的服務技術人員每天都與客戶在一起，他們正在與客戶建立值得信賴的顧問關係。他們經常看到客戶可以改進自己的設施的機會。所以他們為我們做了出色的工作。但服務業務是今天特靈科技的重要組成部分，並且相信它明天會更加強大。

Really, really appreciate all of that. Maybe just following up on data center service specifically. If we kind of think about that two- to three-year lag, it would imply that a lot of the growth we've seen in certainly in orders and even, I guess, revenue on the data center side over the last 12, 18 months hasn't really found its way into service yet. Can you just maybe talk about service (inaudible) process different in data center elsewhere. And I just asked because, obviously, these are customers that are very sophisticated, uptime is everything. Energy efficiencies even more important there than it is elsewhere. So any just color on how the data center service model differs would be helpful.

真的，真的很感激這一切。也許只是專門跟進資料中心服務。如果我們考慮兩到三年的滯後，那就意味著我們在過去 12 年、18 年中看到的大量成長肯定是在訂單方面，甚至是資料中心的收入。使用。您能否談談其他地方的資料中心中不同的服務（聽不清楚）流程。我之所以這麼問，是因為顯然這些客戶都是非常成熟的，正常運作時間就是一切。那裡的能源效率比其他地方更重要。因此，任何關於資料中心服務模型差異的顏色都會有所幫助。

As I said earlier, I think of it as the more sophisticated the product, the greater the appetite is for the OEM to do the service. And data centers tend to be some of the most sophisticated systems that we deploy. So we're very strong in the data centers there and service. And by the way, I know that the growth over the last several years has been fantastic in data centers. But remember, data centers have been around for a long time, and we've been very strong in this vertical for -- since the beginning. So we have -- even though we've seen tremendous growth, we also have a big installed base in data centers that we're servicing today.

正如我之前所說，我認為產品越複雜，OEM 提供服務的胃口就越大。資料中心往往是我們部署的最複雜的系統之一。所以我們在那裡的資料中心和服務非常強大。順便說一句，我知道過去幾年資料中心的成長非常驚人。但請記住，資料中心已經存在很長時間了，而且我們從一開始就在這個垂直領域非常強大。因此，儘管我們已經看到了巨大的成長，但我們今天所服務的資料中心也擁有龐大的安裝基礎。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure, Chris.

當然，克里斯。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. Good morning. Maybe I just wanted to start with slide 15. You talk -- give us some very useful pointers on next year. Just when we're thinking about kind of -- any color you could give us as to how to think about organic operating leverage. This year is guided at 30% now. Trying to think about sort of that for next year, anything you're calling out in terms of, say, mix. It looks like you get a mixed tailwind, perhaps, within resi from the A2L transition. There may be some high operating leverage as transport markets turn around more in the second half. I guess I want sort of rolling all that together, should we expect kind of strong operating leverage in '25? Any reason not to?

你好。早安.也許我只想從投影片 15 開始。你說的——給我們一些關於明年的非常有用的指示。就在我們思考某種——任何你可以給我們的關於如何考慮有機營運槓桿的顏色時。今年的指導值為 30%。試著考慮一下明年的情況，任何你所呼籲的，比如說，混合。看起來你可能會在 A2L 過渡的剩餘時間內獲得混合的順風。隨著運輸市場下半年出現更多好轉，營運槓桿可能會較高。我想我想把所有這些結合在一起，我們是否應該期望在 25 年擁有強大的營運槓桿？有什麼理由不這樣做？

Hey, Julian. It's Chris. I'll start. We'll provide a bit more detail around 2025 in our earnings call for the fourth quarter, but we really do like that long-term algorithm of 25% or better operating leverage and making sure we have the ability to fund investments in the business. We would be targeting 2025 for top quartile financial performance. We're going to look at that in the top line. We look at that on the bottom line and cash conversion as well.

嘿，朱利安。是克里斯。我開始吧。我們將在 2025 年左右在第四季度的收益電話會議中提供更多細節，但我們確實喜歡 25% 或更好的營運槓桿的長期演算法，並確保我們有能力為業務投資提供資金。我們的目標是到 2025 年實現前四分之一的財務表現。我們將在頂行查看這一點。我們也會關注利潤和現金轉換。

One thing so far this year, we've had excellent free cash flow conversion. The average over the last four years is, I think, 108% and so we're going to be targeting top line, bottom line and really strong cash conversion going into 2025. So we would expect commercial HVAC to be -- remain strong. The backlog visibility gives us a lot of confidence around that. We just talked about services and the high single-digit growth we've seen over the last seven years gives us a lot of confidence that should continue.

今年到目前為止，我們已經實現了出色的自由現金流轉換。我認為過去四年的平均成長率為 108%，因此我們的目標是到 2025 年實現營收、利潤和真正強勁的現金轉換。因此，我們預計商業暖通空調將保持強勁。積壓的可見度讓我們對此充滿信心。我們剛剛談到了服務業，過去七年我們看到的高個位數成長給了我們很大的信心，應該繼續下去。

And I think about Americas Transport, it's probably not a headwind, it could be a modest tailwind going into next year, just given the expectation of around refrigerated trailers in the Americas being up low-single digits, more second half of the year than first half. We think we got some nice tailwinds going into next year. But on the leverage, we like the 25% or greater algorithm and keep those investments coming.

我認為美洲運輸，這可能不是逆風，可能是進入明年的溫和順風，考慮到美洲冷藏拖車的預期將增長低個位數，今年下半年比上半年更多一半。我們認為明年我們將迎來一些好的順風。但在槓桿方面，我們喜歡 25% 或更高的演算法，並保持這些投資。

Thanks very much, Chris. And then maybe my second question just around the U.S. resi HVAC market, which I don't think has been touched on in the questions so far. Maybe just help us understand, I think, Dave, you mentioned the slight increase to your revenue assumption for that business this year. Was that tied to sort of share gain or some behavior by distributors in general. Any color on that. And it sounds like you're pretty confident of decent revenue growth in 2025, again despite the prebuy. I just wondered if you could flesh that out, please, at all.

非常感謝，克里斯。然後，也許我的第二個問題是關於美國 Resi HVAC 市場的，我認為到目前為止，問題中還沒有涉及到這一點。也許只是幫助我們理解，我想戴夫，你提到今年該業務的收入假設略有增加。這是否與某種份額收益或分銷商的某些行為有關？任何顏色都可以。聽起來你對 2025 年收入的可觀增長非常有信心，儘管有預購。我只是想知道你是否能具體說明這一點。

Yes, sure. Well, Julian, first of all, nice job on CNBC the other day. I saw you did a fantastic job. So nice to see. Look, on resi, look, let's just go back. We started the year, and we were thinking that resi was going to be plus or minus low single digits. And then at the end of the first quarter, we kind of said, look, the EPA clarification around the refrigerant transition. That was a nice help. We thought that inventory had normalized in the channel, so that was a help.

是的，當然。嗯，朱利安，首先，前幾天在 CNBC 上乾得很好。我看到你做得非常出色。很高興看到。聽著，在雷西，聽著，我們回去吧。今年年初，我們認為 Resi 將會是正負低個位數。然後在第一季末，我們說，看，美國環保署對冷媒轉型進行了澄清。這是一個很好的幫助。我們認為渠道中的庫存已經正常化，所以這是一個幫助。

And then we had a very warm cooling season, right? So I think it was a very hot summer and that certainly drove growth as well. As far as share goes, I'm sure -- yes, we're saying we've had nice gains, but I've heard everyone say they have nice gains. So I'm not sure where that will sort out. But we're very confident and we're happy with the share that we have in that space and the progress that, that team has been able to make.

然後我們經歷了一個非常溫暖的冷卻季節，對吧？所以我認為這是一個非常炎熱的夏天，這當然也推動了成長。就份額而言，我確信——是的，我們說我們獲得了不錯的收益，但我聽到每個人都說他們獲得了不錯的收益。所以我不確定哪裡會解決這個問題。但我們非常有信心，我們對我們在該領域所擁有的份額以及該團隊所取得的進展感到滿意。

Look, our team is really executing at a high level in residential right now. We've made some investments there in our manufacturing that are really paying dividends. And I could not be more proud of what that team has been able to execute to. So we're very happy with what we're seeing in residential. As far as 2025 goes, look, I've been saying for a long time that I believe our resi business is a GDP plus business. And I think that that's the framework that we're working through that we'll get back to in 2025.

看，我們的團隊現在在住宅領域的執行力確實很高。我們在製造業方面進行了一些投資，這些投資確實帶來了回報。我為團隊所取得的成就感到無比自豪。因此，我們對住宅中所看到的情況非常滿意。就 2025 年而言，我長期以來一直在說，我相信我們的 Resi 業務是一項 GDP 加業務。我認為這就是我們正在研究的框架，我們將在 2025 年回歸。

The prebuy, look, I don't think there's going to be a significant prebuy saying that since January. There will be something, we'll clarify that as we get through the fourth quarter. But look, resi business is operating on all cylinders right now, and we expect it to continue into the future.

預購，看，我認為自一月份以來不會有重大預購這麼說。當我們完成第四季時，我們會澄清一些事情。但看，再生矽業務目前正在全力運轉，我們預計這種情況將持續到未來。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citi.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗銀行。

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

嘿。大家早安。

Good morning, Andy.

早安，安迪。

Hey, Andy. How are you doing?

嘿，安迪。你好嗎？

Good. How are you? Dave, look, I know you already talked about data centers a little bit. But interestingly, in your presentation, you mentioned other verticals. You've mentioned before education, health care, but you also mentioned office. Maybe you can elaborate on what you're seeing there. And then given we're at the tail end as you're spending for K-12, what could that mean for education-related HVAC spend in 2025?

好的。你好嗎？戴夫，聽著，我知道你已經談論過一些資料中心了。但有趣的是，在您的演講中，您提到了其他垂直領域。您之前提到了教育、醫療保健，但您也提到了辦公室。也許您可以詳細說明您在那裡看到的內容。然後，考慮到 K-12 的支出已處於尾數，這對於 2025 年教育相關的 HVAC 支出意味著什麼？

Andy, look, first of all, thanks for noticing office on the page. We haven't talked about office in a long time. And although it may sound counterintuitive because you still have vacancy rates that are quite high. But we had a very strong quarter in office. Actually, year-to-date office is up from an order rate standpoint. And if you think about it, you go kind of a click lower, you could sit there and say, well, we're doing a really good job in Class A buildings.

安迪，首先，感謝您注意到頁面上的辦公室。我們已經很久沒有談論辦公室的事情了。儘管這聽起來可能違反直覺，因為空置率仍然相當高。但我們在任期間經歷了一個非常強勁的季度。事實上，從訂單率的角度來看，今年迄今的辦公室是上升的。如果你想一想，你會稍微降低一下，你可以坐在那裡說，好吧，我們在 A 級建築方面做得非常好。

And we're also really helping our customers navigate through how they get tenants back into their space. And I know you had the opportunity to visit us in New York, and you got to see it firsthand, right? Having this direct sales force with deep domain expertise as to what's happening in a particular city is critical, right? We know what the carrots are, what the sticks are and, more importantly, how to navigate that so that we could help the customer make the right decisions so they can get tenants back into their space.

我們也真正幫助我們的客戶了解如何讓租戶重新回到他們的空間。我知道您有機會來紐約拜訪我們，並且親眼目睹了它，對吧？擁有一支對特定城市正在發生的事情擁有深厚領域專業知識的直銷隊伍至關重要，對嗎？我們知道什麼是胡蘿蔔，什麼是大棒，更重要的是，我們知道如何駕馭這一點，以便我們可以幫助客戶做出正確的決定，讓租戶重新回到自己的空間。

So it's just -- I can't speak enough about our direct sales force. I can't speak enough about how they pivot to where the opportunities are and how. It's not just about data centers that's growing. For us, it's really almost all of our verticals. I was doing the study or I had the team do a study, and I was looking from year-to-date from order rates, and I'll speak about commercial HVAC, we track 14 different verticals, 13 of them were positive by a lot, and office was one of those.

所以，關於我們的直銷隊伍，我無法說太多。關於他們如何轉向機會所在以及如何轉向，我無法說太多。成長的不僅是數據中心。對我們來說，這實際上幾乎是我們所有的垂直領域。我正在做這項研究，或者我讓團隊做了一項研究，我從年初至今的訂單率中進行了研究，我會談論商業暖通空調，我們跟踪14 個不同的垂直行業，其中13 個是正面的很多，辦公室就是其中之一。

So it just shows you the broad-based strength that we have and the ability of our teams to really navigate to where the opportunities are. So I could not be happier with seeing office on the page, and the team continues to execute at a high level there.

因此，它只是向您展示了我們擁有的廣泛實力以及我們團隊真正抓住機會的能力。因此，我很高興在頁面上看到辦公室，並且團隊繼續在那裡高水準執行。

Great. And let me just ask you about China in the context of. You obviously had somewhat high decremental margins there. Some of that is the choices you've made. Do you -- again, you've been in China for a long time. You moved to direct sales, and everything was good once you did that. Do you see this as a more structural issue? Or is it really just cyclical? And if it is either way, can you take more cost out of that business? Or how should we think about that to offset higher decrementals?

偉大的。讓我問一下中國的背景。顯然，你那裡的遞減利潤有些高。其中一些是您所做的選擇。再說一次，你在中國已經待了很久了。你轉向直銷，一旦你這樣做了，一切都很好。您認為這是一個更具結構性的問題嗎？或者它真的只是周期性的嗎？如果是任何一種情況，您能否從該業務中降低更多成本？或者我們應該如何考慮這一點來抵消更高的減量？

Yeah. I mean, well, first of all, the team performed quite well even though the revenues were down. They were within gross margins on a deleverage standpoint. So that was good to see. Look, we're going to just work through this in China. We have a great team there, and we have a great business, and we've been overperforming in China for a long time. We've made a decision to change our credit policy, specifically around down payments and progress payments. Long term, this will be the right decision. And I think people will see that in the future.

是的。我的意思是，首先，儘管收入下降了，但團隊的表現還是相當不錯的。從去槓桿化的角度來看，它們的毛利率處於控制範圍內。所以很高興看到這一點。看，我們將在中國解決這個問題。我們在那裡擁有一支優秀的團隊，我們擁有出色的業務，並且長期以來我們在中國的表現一直表現出色。我們決定改變我們的信貸政策，特別是關於首付和進度付款的政策。從長遠來看，這將是正確的決定。我認為人們將來會看到這一點。

But right now, our teams are working through this change. I have all the confidence in the world that they'll get back to outperforming here in the future. But right now, we're going to work through it. But a great team there that's executed for a long time at a high level, and I expect more of that in the future.

但現在，我們的團隊正在努力應對這項變化。我對世界充滿信心，他們將來會再次表現出色。但現在，我們要解決這個問題。但那裡有一支偉大的團隊，長期處於高水準，我期望未來能有更多這樣的團隊。

Appreciate the color, guys.

欣賞一下這個顏色，夥計們。

Okay. Thanks. And we'll see you in a couple of weeks.

好的。謝謝。我們幾週後再見。

Yeah. See you soon.

是的。再見。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey, guys. Good morning.

嘿，夥計們。早安.

Hey Joe, how are you?

嘿喬，你好嗎？

Doing great, Dave. Thanks. Yes, look, we talked about office. We talked about data centers. Clearly, the commercial HVAC business is humming along. Can you maybe just kind of talk a little bit about some of the mega project activity, how that's coming through, whether it's semiconductor plants, I know there's been some delays on EV plants. Just any commentary around that would be helpful.

做得很好，戴夫。謝謝。是的，看，我們談論了辦公室。我們討論了資料中心。顯然，商業暖通空調業務正在蓬勃發展。您能否稍微談談一些大型專案活動，這些活動是如何進行的，是否是半導體工廠，我知道電動車工廠出現了一些延誤。只要對此有任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. Mega project is my favorite term, I don't really like. But look, mega projects are happening in verticals that we've always been very strong in, and it's dynamic, as you could imagine, right? Yes, you've talked about a few projects that maybe are getting a little bit delayed, we have others that are pulled up. We have some, especially on the EV battery side, a couple of them, actually, have been canceled.

是的。大型專案是我最喜歡的術語，但我不太喜歡。但是看，大型專案正在我們一直非常擅長的垂直領域發生，而且它是動態的，正如你可以想像的，對吧？是的，你談到了一些項目可能會有點延遲，我們還有其他項目被拉動。我們有一些，特別是在電動車電池方面，實際上，其中一些已經被取消。

But we also have new ones that are coming in. So it's dynamic, but we continue to win in the mega project space, right? Again, verticals we've always been strong in. But a lot of these decisions are made on a global basis. So you have decision makers that live in different parts of the world. Again, a direct sales force that could help triage those decision makers is extremely important. And we've been very successful, and I anticipate, and I know we'll be very successful in the future as well.

但我們也有新的進來。所以它是動態的，但我們繼續在大型專案領域獲勝，對嗎？再說一遍，我們一直在垂直領域佔據優勢。但其中許多決定都是在全球範圍內做出的。因此，決策者居住在世界不同地區。同樣，可以幫助對這些決策者進行分類的直銷隊伍極為重要。我們已經非常成功，我預計，而且我知道我們將來也會非常成功。

Got it. That's helpful. And look, I know you're not talking about a prebuy on the residential side of the business and yet the industry is seeing pretty significant growth in the back half of this year in resi and a few of your competitors are talking about how much of the kind of [R-54B] is going to go through their system next year.

知道了。這很有幫助。看，我知道你不是在談論住宅業務方面的預購，但該行業在今年下半年看到了住宅領域的顯著增長，並且你的一些競爭對手正在談論有多少這種[R-54B]將於明年透過他們的系統。

With one saying 65% of their business, the other one is saying 90% of their business I'm just kind of curious as you kind of think about your resi business since the next year, like how much of it do you think is going to be the 410A product that you'll manufacture this year versus the R-54B product that will be hitting the market next year. Any thoughts?

一個人說佔了他們業務的 65%，另一個人說佔了他們業務的 90%，我只是有點好奇，因為你會考慮從明年開始你的 Resi 業務，比如你認為其中有多少會發生。今年將生產的410A 產品與明年將上市的R-54B 產品。有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. I mean if you think about inventory in the channel, think about three months of inventory is probably a good average to use. So by definition, you're going to be at 75%. Now it won't probably be linear, where it will be all in the back half. You'll have some of the 410 that will sell throughout the year. But look, we'll probably be in that 75%, 80% range in resi. In commercial, and by the way, no one wants to take well commercial, but commercial also went through a refrigerant change on the unitary side. And that one will be obviously a lot higher, think of that one in the 90%-plus range.

是的。我的意思是，如果您考慮渠道中的庫存，請考慮三個月的庫存可能是一個很好的平均值。所以根據定義，你將達到 75%。現在它可能不會是線性的，全部都在後半部。您將擁有一些全年銷售的 410。但看，我們可能會處於 Resi 的 75%、80% 範圍內。順便說一句，在商業領域，沒有人願意把商業做得很好，但商業領域也經歷了單一方面的冷媒變化。這個數字顯然會高很多，想想 90% 以上的範圍。

Helpful. Thank you very much.

有幫助。非常感謝。

Okay. Thanks, Joe.

好的。謝謝，喬。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Look, I know I know APAC and China are very small for you, so [I'll probably come] back to this. But I guess the surprise is that it took so long because we've seen terrible markets in China now for some time. So -- you mentioned you've been outperforming. That makes sense, but obviously, the string broke this quarter.

謝謝。大家早安。謝謝你的提問。聽著，我知道亞太地區和中國對你們來說非常小，所以[我可能會]回到這一點。但我想令人驚訝的是花了這麼長時間，因為我們已經看到中國市場已經糟糕了一段時間了。所以——你提到你的表現一直都很出色。這是有道理的，但顯然，這個季度繩子斷了。

So it seems -- if you have to gauge how much of this is elective, enforcing more stringent credit procedures versus genuine deterioration in the market. How would you sort of gauge that? And I'm guessing that this correction has to cycle through into 2025. There's no kind of spring back here. Just any thoughts there.

看來，如果你必須衡量其中有多少是選擇性的，那就是執行更嚴格的信貸程序與市場真正惡化之間的關係。你會如何衡量這一點？我猜測這種調整必須持續到 2025 年。這裡沒有春天的氣息。只是有任何想法。

Yeah. I mean, I think the fourth quarter will be stronger than the third quarter. I mean just -- I mean, Nigel, you kind of hit it. Look, China is 4% of our revenue, first of all. So it's a small portion of our revenue, but it's important. And how much of the downturn is market related versus our policy change, it's always hard to say that. I don't know, is it 50-50, maybe it's a little bit more weighted to policy change at least in the short term, probably just because we have to work through that.

是的。我的意思是，我認為第四季會比第三季更強。我的意思是──我的意思是，奈傑爾，你有點成功了。首先，中國市場占我們收入的 4%。所以這只是我們收入的一小部分，但很重要。經濟低迷在多大程度上與市場和我們的政策變化有關，這總是很難說的。我不知道，是50-50嗎，也許至少在短期內對政策變化的權重更大一些，可能只是因為我們必須解決這個問題。

We have to educate our customers as to what the expectations are. So our teams are really good. Again, a direct sales force can have that direct conversation, they can understand the why and we'll work through it. We'll see how the fourth quarter, as I said, will be a little bit stronger, we think, than the third quarter. And that's what we have baked into our guide.

我們必須讓客戶了解他們的期望是什麼。所以我們的團隊真的很棒。同樣，直銷人員可以進行直接對話，他們可以理解原因，我們將解決它。正如我所說，我們將看到第四季將如何比第三季更強。這就是我們已納入指南的內容。

Okay. That's great. And then a follow-up for Chris. Not asking the '25 guidance, but maybe just some of the moving pieces. On corporate, running at $330 million now it was as low as [$250 million] back in 2022, 2021. So any sense on what would be a good run rate for corporate. And then it looks like amort comes down in '25. So I think some of the Trane acquisition, amort starting to roll off. Is that correct?

好的。那太棒了。然後是克里斯的後續行動。不是詢問 25 年的指導意見，而是可能只是問一些變化的部分。就企業而言，目前為 3.3 億美元，而 2022 年和 2021 年則低至 [2.5 億美元]。那麼對於企業來說什麼是良好的運作率有什麼意義呢？然後看起來攤銷費用會在 25 年下降。所以我認為特靈的一些收購、分攤費用開始減少。這是正確的嗎？

And then finally, just on interest. We got a refi coming up in November, I think, very small, but should we expect interest expense to go up a little bit next year?

最後，只是興趣。我認為，我們將在 11 月進行再融資，規模很小，但我們是否應該預計明年的利息支出會略有增加？

Hey, Nigel. Yeah, corporate, I think, $300 million is probably a good longer-term run rate number. I mean there are times like this year where we have a little bit higher corporate expense and think of that as where we're driving some of the enterprise investments for the company. So those are decisions we'll make as we work throughout a year always making sure that, that pipeline of investments is getting funded. So -- but I think we're going into 2025, a squiggle of $300 million is probably a good place to start. We'll update you as we get together in a few months from now. .

嘿，奈傑爾。是的，我認為，對於企業來說，3 億美元可能是一個不錯的長期運作率數字。我的意思是，像今年這樣的時候，我們的企業費用會稍微高一些，我們認為這是我們為公司推動一些企業投資的地方。因此，這些是我們在全年工作中將做出的決定，並始終確保投資管道得到資助。所以，但我認為我們即將進入 2025 年，3 億美元的花體可能是一個不錯的起點。我們將在幾個月後聚會時向您通報最新情況。。

On amortization, yes, there's going to be a little bit of a roll-off on the train amortization. We'd have to look at that across the new M&A that we've done over the last few years and dial that all in. So yes, we'll give you some more input on that over the next few months, see if there's any more M&A that comes through the balance of this year.

在攤銷方面，是的，火車攤銷將會有一些下滑。我們必須審視過去幾年我們進行的新併購，並將其全部納入考慮範圍。所以，是的，我們將在接下來的幾個月內向您提供更多相關信息，看看今年剩餘時間內是否會進行更多併購。

And then on the interest side, yes, we I would say we had $237 million of guided interest expense for this year. We took out some debt proactively earlier this year just to derisk a refinance that actually is going to come due here in a couple of days. We've held on to that cash actually this year from the bond offering we did in June. It's a net positive on net interest here. So we'll pay down that cash and pay down that bond going into next year. But maybe that number for 2024 is not far off of what we have for 2025. But we'll see. We'll dial it in.

然後在利息方面，是的，我們今年的指導利息支出為 2.37 億美元。今年早些時候，我們主動償還了一些債務，只是為了消除實際上將在幾天內到期的再融資的風險。實際上，我們今年已經從 6 月發行的債券中保留了這筆現金。這裡的淨利息是淨正值。因此，我們將在明年償還現金和債券。但也許 2024 年的數字與 2025 年的數字相去不遠。但我們會看到。我們將撥入。

The good thing is, is that we've generated a lot of cash this year, maybe earlier than normal. It's generated a little bit more interest income as well as we've earned it this year. But we have a pristine balance sheet, very strong leverage on the balance sheet, a lot of firepower to go deploy cash. And I would say maybe for next year, interest is probably in that ballpark is 2024.

好消息是，我們今年已經產生了大量現金，也許比正常情況還要早。它產生了更多的利息收入，就像我們今年賺到的一樣。但我們擁有原始的資產負債表、非常強大的資產負債表槓桿、大量的火力來部署現金。我想說，也許明年，人們感興趣的可能是 2024 年。

That's great. Thanks, Chris.

那太棒了。謝謝，克里斯。

Thanks, Nigel.

謝謝，奈傑爾。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Hi. Good morning. This is Sahil Manocha on for Deane Dray. My question is on weakness in China, understanding it's a smaller part of the business, but have you taken any write-downs of receivables or increased reserves? And how might the Chinese government stimulus actions play out? And are there any verticals in China doing particularly worse?

你好。早安.我是迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray) 的薩希爾馬諾查 (Sahil Manocha)。我的問題是關於中國的弱點，了解它只佔業務的一小部分，但你們是否已減記應收帳款或增加準備金？中國政府的刺激行動將如何發揮作用？中國有哪些垂直產業表現特別差？

Why don't I start, this is Chris. The first answer is no. We've not seen any material write-downs or bad debt reserves. I think the key there is coming out of the second quarter, working with our business team in China to make sure that they were deploying these tightened credit policies really at the end of the second quarter. And so we've got orders that are waiting to be delivered. And when the cash comes in, we'll deliver them. So at this point, no, we're not seeing that.

為什麼我不開始呢，這是克里斯。第一個答案是否定的。我們沒有看到任何重大減記或壞帳準備。我認為關鍵是從第二季開始，與我們在中國的業務團隊合作，確保他們在第二季末真正部署這些收緊的信貸政策。所以我們有等待交貨的訂單。當現金到來時，我們將交付它們。所以在這一點上，不，我們還沒有看到這一點。

We generally play in the non-resi markets in China and largely commercial HVAC with a smaller transport business. And those are the markets that have been, as you may have seen here in the last several months, the nonresi markets are just seeing a bit of a downturn. So we've been outperforming for some time.

我們主要涉足中國的非再生能源市場，主要是商業暖通空調市場，運輸業務較小。正如您在過去幾個月中所看到的那樣，這些市場一直在出現一些低迷。所以我們已經有一段時間表現出色了。

At some point, it does catch up with you a little bit. But to Dave's prior comments, we're also making sure we're focused on the long term here. We don't want to create a short-term problem that's a booking or revenue that three, six, nine months down the road, you wind up with a problem you have to deal with. We're making sure -- we've got quality orders, quality customers, quality receivables and then ultimately driving the cash.

在某些時候，它確實會追上你。但根據戴夫之前的評論，我們也確保我們著眼於長期。我們不想造成預訂或收入等短期問題，而在三、六個月、九個月後，您最終會遇到必須處理的問題。我們要確保－我們擁有優質的訂單、優質的客戶、優質的應收帳款，然後最終帶來現金。

That's really helpful. And then one more on data centers. Could you provide an update on your liquid cooling investment in liquid stack?

這真的很有幫助。然後是關於數據中心的另一篇文章。您能否提供有關液體堆疊液體冷卻投資的最新資訊？

Yeah. We continue to work with liquid stack. We've been partners with them for an extended period of time now. We're -- I think the activity is starting to pick up there. But there's some hurdles that we're still working through with them, and we'll keep you posted, but not really any kind of an update right now as far as orders are concerned.

是的。我們繼續與液體堆疊合作。我們已經與他們合作很長一段時間了。我們——我認為那裡的活動開始增加。但我們仍在與他們合作解決一些障礙，我們會及時通知您，但就訂單而言，目前還沒有任何更新。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Hey, guys. Good morning.

嘿，夥計們。早安.

Hey, Andrew. How are you?

嘿，安德魯。你好嗎？

I am going to sort of belabor this China point a little bit more. My understanding was that for you, China was mostly industrial exposure. And I think the prior explanation for the fact that your performance in China was better was because you did not have exposure to these non-residential office buildings.

我將進一步闡述這個中國問題。我的理解是，對你來說，中國主要是工業領域。我認為，之前你們在中國表現更好的原因是因為你們沒有接觸過這些非住宅辦公室。

I just want to understand if that's the right way of thinking about it. And yeah, right, because, as I said, the commercial weakness was there. Your response was we're not really on this commercial developments. We're playing mostly on the industrial side. But did I just understand it wrong?

我只是想了解這是否是正確的思考方式。是的，沒錯，因為正如我所說，商業弱點就在那裡。你的回答是我們並不真正關注這個商業開發項目。我們主要從事工業方面的工作。但我剛才是不是理解錯了？

No, it's about -- think about our business in China, think about 90% commercial HVAC, okay, mostly applied systems. So you're spot on there. Look, the downturn, the markets are down, okay? That's pretty universal as to what's happening in China. But as I said earlier, Andrew, if a customer wasn't going to provide the down payment, okay, or the progress payment, even though the product was ready to be shipped, we've held it, okay?

不，這是關於——想想我們在中國的業務，想想 90% 的商業暖通空調，好吧，主要是應用系統。所以你就在那裡。看，經濟低迷，市場低迷，好嗎？這對於中國正在發生的事情來說是相當普遍的。但正如我之前所說，安德魯，如果客戶不打算提供首付款，或者分期付款，即使產品已準備好發貨，我們也會保留它，好嗎？

We're not going to ship it until we get that progress payment. And you saw the acute falloff in the quarter because of that. But again, long term, this is a prudent decision that we're making. And the individual before Dean was asking about it, have we written off anything in bad debt. And the answer is no, and we don't intend to in the future.

在收到進度款之前我們不會出貨。因此，你看到了本季的急劇下滑。但從長遠來看，這是我們做出的謹慎決定。在迪恩詢問之前，有人問我們是否已經註銷了任何壞帳。答案是否定的，我們將來也不打算這麼做。

No, I understand, but the answer is that all along your China business was mostly commercial real estate nonindustrial facilities, not factories, not data centers. It's 90% commercial real estate. Just want to get that point. Is that correct?

不，我明白，但答案是，一直以來你們在中國的業務主要是商業地產非工業設施，而不是工廠，不是資料中心。其中90%是商業不動產。只是想明白這一點。這是正確的嗎？

No, that's false. No, we're actually the reverse. We don't really play in the commercial real estate place. Okay, these are applied systems. So think of them semiconductor, think of them industrial applications.

不，那是假的。不，我們實際上是相反的。我們並不真正涉足商業房地產領域。好吧，這些都是應用系統。所以想想它們是半導體，想想它們的工業應用。

No, that's exactly what I was asking. Yes, that was my understanding. Okay. Okay. Okay, fine. So it's really industrial weakness. It's weakness outside the real estate market that's getting you down.

不，這正是我要問的。是的，這就是我的理解。好的。好的。好吧，好吧。所以這確實是工業弱點。房地產市場以外的疲軟讓你情緒低落。

You got it.

你明白了。

Okay. Thank you. No, that's exactly what -- and maybe just A2L pricing. There's been a lot of data points. I think those of you that Daikin, right, because they use a different refrigerant maybe is not going to increase their prices as much. I think your peers are sort of saying high single digits, around 10% maybe. What do you guys, and I apologize if I missed it, but what do you guys fall in on this A2L pricing into '25?

好的。謝謝。不，這正是——也許只是 A2L 定價。有很多數據點。我認為大金，對吧，因為他們使用不同的冷媒，可能不會將價格提高那麼多。我認為你們的同行所說的數字很高，大概是 10% 左右。你們怎麼看？ 如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但是你們對 25 年的 A2L 定價有何看法？

Yes, Andrew, I mean, think of the introduced pricing for the new refrigerant products really being up in the high single-digit range. There is more cost associated with the products for many reasons, the refrigerant, the sensors, et cetera. Our target is to be margin neutral here as we think about pricing and cost for end customers. But think of it for us up in that high single-digit range.

是的，安德魯，我的意思是，考慮到新冷媒產品的定價確實在高個位數範圍內。由於冷媒、感測器等多種原因，產品相關的成本更高。當我們考慮最終客戶的定價和成本時，我們的目標是保持利潤中立。但請為我們考慮一下這個高個位數範圍。

As we guide next year, we'll dial in a little bit better based on visibility the percentages that Dave outlined previously of how much will be 454B versus 410A. And then I know, as you know, not all of the residential product we sell is subject to the new refrigerant like furnaces. So we'll kind of walk you through what we think that price contribution is for next year, but it will be a tailwind for next year.

正如我們明年的指導，我們將根據戴夫之前概述的 454B 與 410A 的百分比的可見性，更好地進行調整。然後我知道，正如您所知，並非我們銷售的所有住宅產品都需要使用新型冷媒，例如爐子。因此，我們將向您介紹我們認為明年的價格貢獻，但這將是明年的推動力。

Terrific. And I really appreciate this clarification in China. Thanks a lot.

了不起。我非常感謝中國的這項澄清。多謝。

Sure. No problems, Andrew. Thanks.

當然。沒問題，安德魯。謝謝。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

How are you doing, Tommy?

你好嗎，湯米？

Doing fine. Thank you. We've talked a lot about China. So I wanted to circle back on one of the positive topics from today, which is the backlog you've called out for 2025, which was up sequentially by a pretty large amount. And I'm just curious, as you look at the composition there, is there anything we can learn in terms of what verticals are particularly strong why customers may be ordering a little bit earlier in the cycle than in the past? Just anything we can glean. Obviously, you've talked about next year is a strong one for commercial HVAC. But maybe if we go one layer deeper there, what can we learn?

做得很好。謝謝。我們已經談論了很多關於中國的事情。因此，我想回顧一下今天的一個積極主題，即您所呼籲的 2025 年積壓工作，該積壓工作量連續增加了相當大的數量。我只是很好奇，當你看到那裡的組成時，我們是否可以了解到哪些垂直行業特別強大，為什麼客戶可能會比過去更早在周期中訂購？只是我們能收集到的任何東西。顯然，您談到明年對於商業暖通空調來說是強勁的一年。但也許如果再深入一層，我們能學到什麼？

Yeah. I think, as I said earlier, if you think about our order rates, and I'll talk about commercial HVAC in the Americas, they're up close to 20% for the year. It's broad-based. It's in basically all verticals. And the other thing, Tommy, that I haven't talked about is that our pipeline, so this is before something actually becomes an order is extremely strong, right? We have very sophisticated CRM systems. So we know what's being worked on. And it is extremely strong, which gives me the confidence not only for the fourth quarter but into 2025 as to what we should be expecting in that business.

是的。我認為，正如我之前所說，如果你考慮我們的訂單率，我會談論美洲的商業暖通空調，今年的訂單率增長了近 20%。它的基礎廣泛。基本上所有垂直領域都是如此。湯米，我還沒有談到的另一件事是我們的管道，所以這是在某些東西真正成為訂單之前非常強大的，對吧？我們擁有非常先進的 CRM 系統。所以我們知道正在做什麼。它非常強勁，這不僅讓我對第四季度而且對 2025 年我們對該業務的預期充滿信心。

So I'm very bullish on 2025. We'll dial that in as we get into our fourth quarter earnings. But look, our backlog is up $300 million year-to-date. It's a -- it's hard to say what's normal now, but it's -- if we look at historical norms, it's over 2.5 times what's normal. We will go into next year with a very strong backlog and the activity, the market activity across all verticals is very, very strong right now.

所以我非常看好2025年。當我們進入第四季度的收益時，我們將對此進行調整。但你看，今年迄今我們的積壓訂單增加了 3 億美元。現在很難說什麼是正常的，但如果我們看看歷史標準，它是正常水平的 2.5 倍以上。我們將以非常強勁的積壓和活動進入明年，所有垂直領域的市場活動現在都非常非常強勁。

Which leads to my follow-up, Dave. Office got a little airtime earlier. And so if we just discuss these commercial trends ex data centers, which we've covered, and think about office and some of the other verticals that we don't talk about as much. Am I hearing you correctly that it feels like the rest of that commercial business has actually gotten stronger in terms of the orders as 2024 has progressed?

這就是我的後續行動，戴夫。Office 早些時候有一些播出時間。因此，如果我們只討論我們已經討論過的資料中心之外的這些商業趨勢，並考慮辦公室和我們不常談論的其他一些垂直行業。我是否沒聽錯，隨著 2024 年的進展，其他商業業務的訂單量實際上變得更強了？

Certainly, office has. I think all of our verticals have positive growth, except for one, had positive growth on a year-over-year basis, which is encouraging. But again, it kind of comes back to who we are as Trane Technologies, right? We are very broad-based, right? Our portfolio of products and services is broad-based. We have expertise in all verticals. And it's not like we've become over-indexed on any one. And I know that data centers are certainly very strong, and it will be very strong in the future.

當然，辦公室有。我認為我們所有的垂直行業都實現了正增長，除了一個行業同比實現了正增長，這是令人鼓舞的。但同樣，這又回到了我們特靈科技的本質，對吧？我們的基礎非常廣泛，對嗎？我們的產品和服務組合基礎廣泛。我們擁有所有垂直領域的專業知識。我們並沒有對任何一項過度索引。而且我知道資料中心肯定非常強大，而且將來也會非常強大。

We have a great team there that works on the data center. We also have great teams that work on other verticals and have that expertise. And by the way, if they see opportunities, they're going to pivot to that opportunity and really go after it and make sure that they can win with the customer. So very strong, we're seeing right now. Backlog is very strong. activity, this is before an order is extremely strong and we're bullish.

我們在那裡有一支出色的數據中心團隊。我們也擁有在其他垂直領域工作並擁有專業知識的優秀團隊。順便說一句，如果他們看到機會，他們就會抓住這個機會，並真正抓住它，確保他們能夠贏得客戶。非常強大，我們現在就看到了。積壓情況非常嚴重。活動，這是在訂單非常強勁並且我們看漲之前。

Thank you, Dave. I'll turn it back.

謝謝你，戴夫。我會把它轉回來。

Thanks, Tommy.

謝謝，湯米。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

Thanks, and I will give it to one question. Dave, in the past, we've talked a little bit about a cascading impact of policies going from, say, ESSER to CHIPS and IRA. And I know there are a lot of fundamental drivers here around decarbonization and improved efficiency paybacks. But just at this point, as we look at '25 and your comments around the pipeline of activity, to what extent are those policy impacts actually impacting the pipeline or the bookings you're seeing. Just help us level set what kind of impact they're actually having on the business?

謝謝，我將回答一個問題。戴夫，過去我們談過一些政策的連鎖影響，例如從 ESSER 到 CHIPS 和 IRA。我知道圍繞脫碳和提高效率回報有很多基本驅動因素。但就在此時，當我們回顧 25 以及您對活動管道的評論時，這些政策影響在多大程度上實際上影響了您所看到的管道或預訂。只是幫助我們確定他們實際上對業務產生了什麼樣的影響？

I'm sure they have a tailwind. Okay. But again, our solutions have great paybacks with or without those tailwinds. Obviously, the tailwind make it more attractive, but we have great paybacks for existing -- whether we have a tailwind or not like ESSER funding.

我確信他們有順風。好的。但同樣，無論有沒有這些順風車，我們的解決方案都會帶來巨大的回報。顯然，順風使其更具吸引力，但我們現有的回報很高——無論我們是否有像埃索基金這樣的順風。

Certainly, some of them have been part of the -- ESSER funding is a great example there where it certainly is part of our backlog. We'll be fulfilling orders all the way through probably about the next year that's in our backlog for schools. And a lot of that has to do, I know it sounds like a long time, but remember, in schools, you tend to want to do the work when students aren't in the school.

當然，其中一些已經成為了 ESSER 資金的一部分，這就是一個很好的例子，它肯定是我們積壓的一部分。我們可能會在明年左右一直履行學校積壓的訂單。其中有很多工作要做，我知道這聽起來很長一段時間，但請記住，在學校，你往往希望在學生不在學校時完成這項工作。

So it will be like the school season in the summer. But look, we'll see what happens with who the next party is in Washington, but we're optimistic that we'll continue to have attractive paybacks regardless of what the policies are, whether they are tailwinds or not, but we'll be successful well into the future.

所以這就像夏天的學季一樣。但是看，我們會看看華盛頓的下一黨是誰，但我們樂觀地認為，無論政策是什麼，無論它們是否順風，我們都將繼續獲得有吸引力的回報，但我們會在未來取得成功。

All right. Thanks, Dave. Appreciate it.

好的。謝謝，戴夫。欣賞它。

Thanks, Noah.

謝謝，諾亞。

We are out of time for questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Zac Nagle for closing remarks.

我們沒有時間提問了。我想將電話轉回給扎克·內格爾進行結束語。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining today's call. As always, we'll be available for questions at any time. We'll also be on the road quite a bit in the fourth quarter, and we look forward to seeing many of you on the road. So have a great day. Thanks.

我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我們將隨時回答您的問題。我們在第四季也會有相當多的時間在路上，我們期待在路上見到你們中的許多人。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。