特靈科技 (TT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Trane Technologies second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for the call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加特靈科技 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Regina，我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Zac Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Zac Nagle。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com, where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We're also recording and archiving this call on our website.

謝謝，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 Trane Technologies 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網路直播，您可以在那裡找到隨附的簡報。我們還在我們的網站上錄製並存檔了這通通話。

Please go to slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release.

請翻到投影片 2。今天電話會議中所作的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出。請參閱我們的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。本簡報還包括非公認會計準則指標，這些指標已在我們新聞稿所附的財務表中進行了解釋。

Joining me on today's call are David Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Chris Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave. Dave?

參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 David Regnery 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Chris Kuehn。說完這些，我會把電話轉給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Zac, and everyone, for joining today's call. Please turn to slide number 3. I'd like to begin with a few minutes on our purpose-driven strategy, which enables our leading financial results. The global demand for energy is increasing at an unprecedented rate, while many areas lack access to reliable power sources. But this is not just a supply equation. At Trane Technologies, we see tremendous opportunities on the demand side.

感謝札克和大家參加今天的電話會議。請翻到幻燈片 3。首先，我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們的目標驅動策略，該策略使我們取得了領先的財務表現。全球能源需求正以前所未有的速度成長，而許多地區卻缺乏可靠的電力來源。但這不只是一個供給方程式。在特靈科技，我們看到了需求上的巨大機會。

In an average building, we estimate a staggering 30% of energy after the meter is wasted. Our solutions are addressing this head on, helping our customers save energy and reduce emissions with a strong return on investment. We are setting the pace for the industry and paving the way to a more sustainable world. With our leading innovation, robust customer demand and talented team, we're well positioned to deliver differentiated shareholder value over the long term.

我們估計，在一棟普通建築中，經過電錶處理後的能源浪費率高達 30%。我們的解決方案正致力於解決這個問題，幫助我們的客戶節省能源、減少排放，並獲得豐厚的投資回報。我們正在引領產業發展，為更永續發展的世界鋪路。憑藉著領先的創新、強勁的客戶需求和優秀的團隊，我們有能力長期為股東創造差異化的價值。

Please turn to slide number 4. Q2 was another strong quarter, marked by record bookings and revenues, a 90-basis point expansion and adjusted operating margins and 18% growth in adjusted EPS. Our Enterprise and Americas Commercial HVAC organic bookings reached new all-time highs with increases of 4% and over 20%, respectively.

請翻到第 4 張投影片。第二季度又是一個強勁的季度，預訂量和收入創下紀錄，擴張 90 個基點，調整後的營業利潤率以及調整後每股收益增長 18%。我們的企業和美洲商業 HVAC 有機預訂量創下歷史新高，分別成長了 4% 和 20% 以上。

In our Americas Commercial HVAC business, we continue to lead the industry by solving our customers' most complex challenges with applied solutions in large, high-growth verticals. Notably, orders for Applied Solutions surged by over 60% in the quarter and are up over 120% on a two-year stack.

在我們的美洲商用暖通空調業務中，我們透過在大型、高成長垂直領域應用解決方案解決客戶最複雜的挑戰，持續引領業界。值得注意的是，應用解決方案的訂單在本季度激增了 60% 以上，兩年累計增加了 120% 以上。

Our Commercial HVAC businesses have demonstrated remarkable durability and resilience, achieving compounded growth over multiple years. Our project pipelines are expanding, underscoring continued opportunities ahead. Our direct sales strategy enables us to capture a significant share of these opportunities and consistently outgrow our end markets.

我們的商用暖通空調業務展現了卓越的耐用性和彈性，實現了多年的複合成長。我們的專案管道正在不斷擴大，預示著未來仍將有機遇。我們的直銷策略使我們能夠抓住這些機會的很大一部分，並不斷超越我們的終端市場。

Our backlog remains strong at $7.1 billion, up 6% compared to year-end 2024. While there was a sequential decline from the first quarter of approximately $125 million, this was due to expected backlog reductions in our shorter-cycle businesses, mainly Residential. Our Commercial HVAC book-to-bill ratio exceeds 100% in all regions, further elevating our global Commercial HVAC backlog.

我們的積壓訂單依然強勁，達到 71 億美元，較 2024 年底成長 6%。雖然與第一季相比將季減了約 1.25 億美元，但這是由於我們預計短週期業務（主要是住宅）的積壓訂單減少所致。我們的商用暖通空調訂單出貨比在所有地區均超過 100%，進一步提升了我們全球商用暖通空調積壓訂單量。

Our services business remains robust, representing one-third of our enterprise revenues. We delivered low teens growth in the quarter and have maintained a low-teens compound annual growth rate since the inception of Trane Technologies in 2020. We are effectively managing and mitigating all enacted tariffs and inflationary impacts through our world-class business operating system. This system includes advanced mechanisms for pricing, supply chain management and scenario planning, which we leverage to offset tariffs, drive market outgrowth and minimize the impact on our customers.

我們的服務業務依然強勁，占我們企業收入的三分之一。我們在本季實現了低十幾歲的成長，並且自 2020 年特靈科技成立以來一直保持著低十幾歲的複合年增長率。我們透過世界一流的業務操作系統有效地管理和減輕所有已實施的關稅和通膨影響。該系統包括先進的定價、供應鏈管理和情境規劃機制，我們利用這些機制來抵消關稅、推動市場成長並最大限度地減少對客戶的影響。

As we review the key drivers for the quarter, our results were in line with expectations with two notable exceptions. First, Americas Commercial HVAC. This business continues to perform exceptionally well, exceeding our expectations and aligning with our track record of consistent market outperformance.

當我們回顧本季的關鍵驅動因素時，我們的結果符合預期，但有兩個明顯的例外。首先，美洲商業暖通空調。該業務繼續表現優異，超出了我們的預期，並與我們持續優於市場的業績記錄相符。

Second, Residential HVAC revenues fell short of our expectations due to a near-term industry shortage of R-454B refrigerant cylinders. However, the strength in our Americas Commercial HVAC business more than compensated for this, positively impacting our adjusted EPS for the quarter. Overall, we are confident in raising our full year revenue and EPS guidance, which Chris will cover in more detail shortly.

其次，由於近期行業內 R-454B 冷媒氣瓶短缺，住宅 HVAC 收入低於我們的預期。然而，我們美洲商用暖通空調業務的強勁表現彌補了這一缺陷，對本季的調整後每股收益產生了積極影響。總體而言，我們有信心提高全年收入和每股收益預期，Chris 很快就會對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Please turn to slide number 5. In our Americas segment, as we discussed, Commercial HVAC continues to deliver standout performance. In the first quarter of 2025, this business achieved all-time high quarterly bookings. In the second quarter, we surpassed this record by nearly $300 million with growth of over 20%.

請翻到第 5 張投影片。正如我們所討論的，在美洲地區，商用暖通空調持續表現出色。2025年第一季度，該業務實現了歷史最高的季度預訂量。第二季度，我們突破了這項紀錄近 3 億美元，增幅超過 20%。

Revenue growth continues to be exceptional, increasing by mid-teens on top of a mid-20s growth comp in the prior year. Our market outgrowth has been consistent, compounding year after year. For perspective, in the second quarter, three-year stack Commercial HVAC revenues are up approximately 60%, with equipment up approximately 80%, led by Applied.

營收成長持續保持出色，在上一年 25% 左右的成長基礎上，又成長了 15% 左右。我們的市場成長一直保持穩定，逐年遞增。從角度來看，在第二季度，三年疊加商用暖通空調收入成長了約 60%，其中設備收入成長了約 80%，其中應用材料公司領先。

Our growth in Applied Solutions is broad-based, aided by market outgrowth in sectors with large CapEx investments such as data centers and high-tech industrial. These sectors require the most complex applied solutions and our ability to win more than our fair share of business here adds to our leading growth profile. CapEx spend in these sectors is expected to remain high over the next several years, providing further growth opportunities.

我們在應用解決方案領域的成長具有廣泛的基礎，這得益於資料中心和高科技工業等資本支出較大的產業的市場成長。這些領域需要最複雜的應用解決方案，而我們在這裡贏得超過公平份額的業務的能力增強了我們領先的成長前景。預計未來幾年這些行業的資本支出將保持高位，從而提供進一步的成長機會。

In addition, Applied Solutions carry strong service revenue tails, generating 8x to 10x the equipment sale, meaning the majority of the revenue from our applied growth is still ahead of us.

此外，應用解決方案擁有強勁的服務收入尾部，產生了 8 倍到 10 倍的設備銷售額，這意味著我們應用成長的大部分收入仍然在我們前面。

Turning to Residential. Revenues were down mid-single digits due to the near-term cylinder-related headwinds I discussed earlier. However, combining our strong first quarter revenues, up high teens with our second quarter, our year-to-date residential revenues are up 3%.

轉向住宅。由於我之前討論過的近期與氣缸相關的不利因素，收入下降了中等個位數。然而，結合我們第一季強勁的收入（高位成長）和第二季的收入，我們今年迄今的住宅收入成長了 3%。

Additionally, we saw very strong growth in the second quarter of 2024, up low teens, which was a multiple of the industry growth rate. Given the varying business models of mix of two-step versus three-step distribution across the industry, it's important to look at Residential over the long term to get a clear picture of growth trends.

此外，我們看到 2024 年第二季的成長非常強勁，成長率達到十幾歲，是產業成長率的數倍。鑑於整個行業採用兩步式和三步式分銷相結合的不同商業模式，因此從長遠來看，觀察住宅行業以清楚了解成長趨勢非常重要。

In Americas transport refrigeration, bookings were up low single digits, while revenues were down low single digits, significantly outperforming end markets, which were down over 30%. In EMEA, commercial HVAC bookings were down low single digits against a tough 20% prior year growth comp. However, two-year stack bookings were strong, up high teens. Revenues were up low single digits, impacted by timing of customer shipments from Q2 into the second half.

在美洲運輸冷藏領域，訂單量上漲了低個位數，而收入卻下降了低個位數，明顯優於終端市場，後者的降幅超過 30%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，商用 HVAC 訂單量下降了個位數，而去年同期的增幅為 20%。然而，兩年期預訂量強勁，達到十幾歲的高點。受第二季至下半年客戶出貨時間的影響，營收成長了個位數。

EMEA Transport organic bookings were down low single digits, while revenues were up low single digits, significantly outperforming end markets, which were down low single digits.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區運輸的有機預訂量下降了低個位數，而收入卻增長了低個位數，明顯優於終端市場，後者的有機預訂量下降了低個位數。

In Asia Pacific, the quarter met our expectations. As we approach the anniversary of our tightened credit policies in China, we expect results to improve. The region is on track to meet full year 2025 expectations for flat revenues with stronger performance in the rest of Asia. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

在亞太地區，本季符合我們的預期。隨著我們在中國收緊信貸政策一週年的臨近，我們預計業績將會改善。該地區預計將實現 2025 年全年收入持平的預期，而亞洲其他地區的表現將更為強勁。現在我想把電話轉給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 6. This slide underscores our robust second quarter performance. Organic revenues increased by 7%, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 70 basis points and adjusted EPS rose by 18%. Our services business delivered impressive organic revenue growth, up in the low teens, while our equipment business achieved mid-single-digit growth despite softer residential results.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 6 張投影片。這張投影片強調了我們第二季的強勁表現。有機營收成長 7%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 70 個基點，調整後 EPS 成長 18%。我們的服務業務實現了令人印象深刻的有機收入成長，增幅達到百分之十幾，而儘管住宅業務業績疲軟，我們的設備業務仍實現了中等個位數的成長。

Please turn to slide number 7. Our Americas segment delivered 9% revenue growth, driven by our Commercial HVAC business. Adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 120 basis points to 24%, marking a record quarterly EBITDA for the segment. Margin expansion was fueled by volume growth, productivity and price realization despite softer residential revenue.

請翻到第 7 張投影片。在商用暖通空調業務的推動下，美洲分部的營收成長了 9%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率增加了 120 個基點，達到 24%，創下該部門季度 EBITDA 的最高紀錄。儘管住宅收入有所下降，但利潤率的擴大是由銷量成長、生產力和價格實現所推動的。

In EMEA, revenue growth was up 3% and adjusted EBITDA margin declined by 200 basis points, consistent with our expectations. We are doubling down on channel investments and M&A integrations in 2025 to support our growth and position for future opportunities. These strategic investments are impacting margins this year as expected.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，營收成長了 3%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 200 個基點，符合我們的預期。我們將在 2025 年加倍加大通路投資和併購整合力度，以支持我們的成長並為未來的機會做好準備。這些策略投資正如預期的那樣對今年的利潤率產生了影響。

In Asia Pacific, revenue declined by high single digits and adjusted EBITDA margin contracted by 220 basis points, primarily due to lower volumes in China, consistent with our expectations.

在亞太地區，收入下降了高個位數，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率收縮了 220 個基點，這主要是由於中國銷售下降，這符合我們的預期。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 8. 2025 is shaping up largely as expected, with modest adjustments in our Americas Commercial HVAC and Residential outlooks. In Residential, we faced temporary headwinds mainly affecting Q2 and Q3 of 2025 due to the cylinder shortage. We expect this issue to improve in Q3 and be resolved by year-end.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到投影片 8。2025 年的情況基本上符合預期，我們對美洲商用暖通空調和住宅前景進行了適度調整。在住宅領域，我們面臨暫時的阻力，主要因為氣瓶短缺而影響 2025 年第二季和第三季。我們預計該問題將在第三季得到改善並在年底前解決。

At this point in the selling season, we also believe it's prudent to factor inventory normalization into the second half outlook. The estimated revenue impact of these combined headwinds is roughly $150 million for the second half. We now expect residential revenues to be flat for the full year versus our prior expectations of mid- to high single-digit growth. We expect to return to a healthy GDP plus framework over the long term.

在銷售季節的這個階段，我們也認為將庫存正常化納入下半年前景是明智之舉。這些不利因素加在一起預計對下半年的收入影響約為 1.5 億美元。我們現在預計全年住宅收入將持平，而我們之前預期的是中高個位數成長。我們預期長期內GDP成長框架將恢復健康。

On the positive side, our Americas Commercial HVAC business continues to exceed expectations, particularly in complex bespoke Applied Solutions. Leveraging our best-in-class operating system and direct sales force, we have consistently outperformed our end markets over multiple years.

從積極的一面來看，我們的美洲商用暖通空調業務繼續超出預期，特別是在複雜的客製化應用解決方案方面。憑藉我們一流的作業系統和直銷隊伍，我們多年來一直超越終端市場。

For 2025, we are raising our Americas Commercial HVAC outlook from high single digits to low double digits. Overall, while we're addressing temporary challenges in residential, the strength of our commercial HVAC business more than offsets these impacts and provides clear long-term benefits for our stakeholders.

對於 2025 年，我們將美洲商用 HVAC 前景從高個位數提高到低兩位數。總體而言，雖然我們正在應對住宅領域的暫時挑戰，但我們商用暖通空調業務的強勁表現足以抵消這些影響，並為我們的利害關係人帶來明顯的長期利益。

And now I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉回給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 9. We are raising our revenue guidance to approximately 8% organic growth, up from 7% to 8% previously and our adjusted EPS to approximately $13.05, up 16% year-over-year and up from $12.70 to $12.90 previously. With the US dollar softening through the end of Q2, we now expect FX to be neutral for the year. M&A contribution remains unchanged at 100 basis points for the year.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 9 張投影片。我們將營收預期從先前的 7% 至 8% 上調至約 8% 的有機成長率，並將調整後每股收益上調至約 13.05 美元，年成長 16%，從先前的 12.70 美元至 12.90 美元。隨著美元在第二季末走弱，我們目前預計今年的外匯走勢將保持中立。全年併購貢獻不變，仍為 100 個基點。

We expect to manage and mitigate all enacted tariff impacts through proactive measures, including pricing. Based on tariffs in place as of July 28, we estimate the cost impact in 2025 to be approximately $140 million, roughly half of our estimate provided at the end of the first quarter, and our full year organic revenue growth guidance includes an estimated pricing impact from tariffs. The tariff environment remains dynamic, and we will provide updates as appropriate throughout the year.

我們希望透過包括定價在內的積極措施來管理和減輕所有已頒布的關稅影響。根據截至 7 月 28 日實施的關稅，我們估計 2025 年的成本影響約為 1.4 億美元，約為我們在第一季末提供的估計值的一半，而我們的全年有機收入成長指引包括關稅對價格影響的估計值。關稅環境保持動態，我們將全年適時提供更新。

We continue to target organic leverage of 25% or higher for the year, consistent with our long-term goals, and we anticipate another year of 100% or greater free cash flow conversion. For the third quarter, we expect approximately 6% organic revenue growth and around $3.80 in adjusted EPS, consistent with the outlook dynamics Dave highlighted earlier. For additional details related to our guidance, please refer to slide 16.

我們今年繼續將有機槓桿率定為 25% 或更高，這與我們的長期目標一致，我們預計下一年自由現金流轉換率將達到 100% 或更高。對於第三季度，我們預計有機收入將成長約 6%，調整後每股收益約為 3.80 美元，與 Dave 先前強調的前景動態一致。有關我們指導的更多詳細信息，請參閱幻燈片 16。

And please turn to slide number 10. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy focused on deploying excess cash to maximize shareholder returns. First, we strengthened our core business through relentless reinvestment. Second, we maintain a strong balance sheet to ensure flexibility as markets evolve. Third, we expect to deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our approach includes strategic M&A to enhance long-term returns and share repurchases when the stock trades below intrinsic value.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。我們仍然致力於平衡的資本配置策略，專注於部署過剩現金以最大化股東回報。首先，我們透過不懈的再投資加強了我們的核心業務。其次，我們維持強勁的資產負債表，以確保市場發展過程中的彈性。第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移將部署100％的過剩現金。我們的方法包括策略性併購以提高長期回報，以及在股票交易價格低於內在價值時進行股票回購。

Please turn to slide number 11. Year-to-date through July, we've deployed approximately $1.5 billion through our balanced capital allocation strategy, including $420 million to dividends and approximately $15 million to M&A and $900 million to share repurchases and $150 million for debt retirement. These figures exclude $260 million from M&A and $100 million from share repurchases made earlier in the year, which were included in our full year 2024 capital deployment targets as discussed during our fourth quarter earnings call.

請翻到第 11 張投影片。截至今年 7 月，我們已透過平衡資本配置策略部署了約 15 億美元，其中包括 4.2 億美元用於股息、約 1500 萬美元用於併購、9 億美元用於股票回購以及 1.5 億美元用於債務償還。這些數字不包括今年稍早來自併購的 2.6 億美元和來自股票回購的 1 億美元，這些資金已包含在我們第四季度收益電話會議上討論的 2024 年全年資本部署目標中。

We have approximately $5.3 billion remaining under repurchase authorizations, providing us with significant share repurchase optionality moving forward.

我們的回購授權餘額約為 53 億美元，這為我們未來提供了大量的股票回購選擇權。

Our M&A pipeline remains active, and we will continue to be disciplined in our approach. Overall, our strong free cash flow, liquidity, balance sheet and substantial share repurchase authorization offer excellent capital allocation optionality as we move forward. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

我們的併購管道仍然活躍，我們將繼續嚴謹地行事。總體而言，我們強勁的自由現金流、流動性、資產負債表和大量的股票回購授權為我們未來的發展提供了極佳的資本配置選擇。現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 13. The Americas transport refrigeration markets have been volatile as have ACT's forecast, but the long-term outlook remains strong. For 2026 and 2027, ACT projects a strong rebound with greater than 20% growth each year. We're managing well through the down cycle. We continue to invest in innovation, and we look forward to adding another significant growth driver to our enterprise portfolio in 2026 and beyond.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第 13 張投影片。正如 ACT 預測的那樣，美洲運輸冷藏市場一直不穩定，但長期前景仍然強勁。預計 2026 年和 2027 年 ACT 將出現強勁反彈，每年成長率將超過 20%。我們正順利度過經濟下行週期。我們將繼續投資於創新，並期待在 2026 年及以後為我們的企業組合增添另一個重要的成長動力。

Please go to slide number 14. In summary, we have the optimal strategy, team and capabilities to deliver leading financial performance in 2025 and beyond. Our uplifting inclusive culture helps us attract the best talent in the market. Powering our innovation. Our solutions offer strong returns to customers and also contribute to a sustainable world. This drives our consistent track record of leading financial performance and positions us to deliver differentiated shareholder value over the long term.

請翻到第 14 張投影片。總而言之，我們擁有最佳的策略、團隊和能力，能夠在 2025 年及以後實現領先的財務表現。我們積極向上的包容性文化幫助我們吸引市場上最優秀的人才。推動我們的創新。我們的解決方案為客戶帶來豐厚的回報，同時也為永續發展的世界做出貢獻。這推動了我們持續領先的財務業績記錄，並使我們能夠長期實現差異化的股東價值。

And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to ask on Commercial HVAC, specifically in the Americas. Obviously, this business has been strong for a number of years. But the Q2 order acceleration was really a standout, kind of 20%-plus versus low to mid-single digit in the prior quarters. So can you maybe just kind of talk about what end markets are driving that acceleration? Are you seeing a broadening of the strength? And do you think Commercial HVAC could be getting better?

我想詢問有關商用暖通空調 (HVAC) 的問題，特別是美洲的商用暖通空調 (HVAC) 問題。顯然，這項業務多年來一直表現強勁。但第二季的訂單成長確實非常突出，達到了 20% 以上，而前幾季的增幅僅為個位數的低點到中位數。那麼，您能否談談哪些終端市場正在推動這種加速？您是否看到實力在擴大？您認為商用暖通空調系統可以變得更好嗎？

Yes. Chris, thanks for the question. This is Dave. I'll start and let Chris add in. Look, we had an exceptionally strong results in Q2 2025 for our Commercial HVAC business here in the Americas. You said an all-time high bookings up over 20%. I would also tell you revenue was very strong. It was up (technical difficulty) bookings are up over 40%. It's led by Applied. Our Applied Solutions were up over 60% in the quarter.

是的。克里斯，謝謝你的提問。這是戴夫。我先開始，然後讓克里斯補充。你看，我們在 2025 年第二季在美洲的商業 HVAC 業務取得了異常強勁的業績。您說預訂量創歷史新高，成長了 20% 以上。我還要告訴你們，收入非常強勁。由於技術困難，預訂量增加了 40% 以上。該項目由應用材料公司領導。本季度，我們的應用解決方案成長了 60% 以上。

Our two-year stack Applied is up over 120%. So yes, we are executing extremely well in that business. And I would tell you, to your question, it's really broad-based growth once again. And yes, sure, we had some nice strength in health care. We had nice strength in government. We had strength in data centers. We had strength in higher ed. But as I look across the 14 verticals that we track, I would tell you the majority of them were positive, which you would expect from Trane Technologies with our direct sales force with expertise across all of these verticals.

我們的應用堆疊兩年內成長了 120% 以上。是的，我們在該業務上表現非常出色。針對你的問題，我想告訴你，這確實又一次實現了廣泛的成長。是的，我們在醫療保健領域確實擁有一些優勢。我們的政府實力雄厚。我們在資料中心方面實力雄厚。我們在高等教育方面具有實力。但當我回顧我們追蹤的 14 個垂直行業時，我會告訴你，其中大多數都是積極的，這也是特靈科技的直銷團隊在所有這些垂直行業都擁有專業知識的體現。

So look, that team continues to execute well. And I would just -- before I turn it over to Chris, the pipeline of activity. We do a lot of work tracking pipelines. And I would tell you that, that remains very, very strong. And the last point I'll make is our Services business, once again, here we are at low teens growth. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone because our compound annual growth rate really since the inception of Trane Technologies has been in that same range. So very strong, and I'm very proud of what that team has been able to accomplish.

所以看，那支球隊繼續表現良好。在我將其交給克里斯之前，我先介紹一下活動的流程。我們做了很多追蹤管道的工作。我想告訴你，這種勢頭仍然非常非常強勁。我要說的最後一點是我們的服務業務，我們現在處於低十幾個百分點的成長狀態。這對任何人來說都不應該感到驚訝，因為自特靈科技成立以來，我們的複合年增長率一直處於同一範圍內。非常強大，我為團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

Chris, I don't know if you have anything you want to add.

克里斯，我不知道您是否還有什麼要補充的。

I'll add on the bookings and the revenue growth. If you remove data centers from the vertical, very strong growth ex data centers in both revenues and bookings. So we like that growth in data centers. We were strong in data centers in the quarter, but you remove that very strong growth as well.

我會增加預訂量和收入成長。如果從垂直行業中移除資料中心，資料中心的收入和預訂量都會出現非常強勁的成長。所以我們喜歡資料中心的成長。本季我們的資料中心表現強勁，但同時也消除了非常強勁的成長動能。

Yes. The only other thing I would add, Chris, because I know it's a typical question is, well, what happened with Applied and Unitary? And obviously, we had a lot of strength in Applied. But I would tell you both were positive. So Applied was stronger than Unitary. But as you would expect, because of the broad-based growth that we're seeing, we're serving, again, all the verticals and some of those verticals are more dominated with Unitary product versus Applied.

是的。克里斯，我唯一想補充的是，因為我知道這是一個典型的問題，那麼，應用程式和單元發生了什麼？顯然，我們在應用材料方面擁有很大的實力。但我想告訴你們，兩人都是正面的。因此，Applied 比 Unitary 更強大。但正如您所預料的那樣，由於我們看到了廣泛的成長，我們再次為所有垂直行業提供服務，而其中一些垂直行業則更多地以單一產品而非應用產品為主。

Thank you. I really appreciate that. Super supportive to hear about the broadening. But I did kind of want to follow up on what does that mean for the service flywheel? In the past, Dave, you've talked about maybe a two-year rough lag between when the equipment starts driving service revenue. And if you look at Commercial HVAC equipment, top line accelerated in '23 and '24 kind of versus where it was at previously. So what does that mean kind of for the outlook for Service into the back half of the year? And then any color on what's implied for the back half service growth guide?

謝謝。我真的很感激。非常支持聽到有關擴大的消息。但我確實想進一步了解這對服務飛輪意味著什麼？戴夫，過去您曾談到，從設備開始帶來服務收入之間可能有大約兩年的延遲。如果你看一下商用暖通空調設備，你會發現 23 年和 24 年的營收成長與之前相比有所加速。那麼這對下半年服務業的前景又意味著什麼呢？那麼，後半部服務成長指南暗示了什麼呢？

Well, you're spot on, right? Our Service business is really built around our Applied portfolio. It doesn't mean we don't service Unitary, but it's really built around our Applied portfolio. And we model that it's 8x to 10x versus the equipment price, what we'll get over services over the life of that asset. So as this -- it's a compounding effect, right? So you could see that our growth has really been quite substantial for a number of years, and that compounding is now starting to impact our service business.

嗯，你說得對，對吧？我們的服務業務實際上是圍繞我們的應用產品組合建立的。這並不意味著我們不為 Unitary 提供服務，而是它確實是圍繞我們的應用產品組合而建構的。我們建模得出的結果是，在資產的整個使用壽命期間，我們將獲得的服務價格是設備價格的 8 倍到 10 倍。所以這是複合效應，對吧？所以你可以看到，我們的成長多年來確實相當可觀，而且這種複合成長現在開始影響我們的服務業務。

So look, we're at the low teens. I'm not going to commit more than that because I think that's very healthy. But we have -- we're putting a lot of investments in our Service business, and it's a third of our company. And I would tell you, it's very, very resilient, and it's got a lot of upside in the future. Chris, I don't know if you want to add anything.

所以你看，我們正處於十幾歲的階段。我不會承諾更多，因為我認為這非常健康。但是我們在服務業務上投入了大量資金，這占我們公司的三分之一。我想告訴你，它非常非常有彈性，而且未來有很大的發展空間。克里斯，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

Yes. And as we described Services on a regional basis, the margins with services are accretive to the segment margins of each of our regions. And to your point, Chris, yes, it takes maybe a couple of years post warranty to start seeing the inflection point of revenues, but we're connected to those customers from day one. We're making sure maintenance is getting performed, executing to service plans and that five-year CAGR now of low double-digit services growth gives us a lot of confidence that revenue is really in front of us when we think about these Applied bookings today.

是的。正如我們按區域描述服務一樣，服務的利潤率會增加我們每個區域的分部利潤率。克里斯，正如你所說，是的，可能需要保固期過後幾年才能開始看到收入的拐點，但我們從第一天起就與這些客戶建立了聯繫。我們確保維護工作順利進行，執行服務計劃，並且五年複合年增長率目前保持在兩位數的低位服務增長率，這讓我們非常有信心，當我們考慮今天這些應用訂單時，收入確實就在我們面前。

Yes. And, Chirs, just one other point is, if you think about it today, right, Services roughly -- if I go to our Commercial HVAC business, think of it half equipment, half services. And another thing that's really accelerating services is these connected solutions. And we were talking about the other day, I had a meeting on how many connected buildings do we have with BrainBox included in that equation. We're up to over 60,000 connected buildings and millions of connected assets. So now we're able to have a lot of structured data that we've had as Trane Technologies, adding on BrainBox, we're now starting to augment that with some the unstructured data.

是的。而且，Chirs，還有一點是，如果你今天考慮一下，對吧，服務大致 - 如果我去我們的商業暖通空調業務，想想它一半是設備，一半是服務。另一個真正加速服務發展的因素是這些互聯解決方案。前幾天我們討論過，我開了個會，討論如果將 BrainBox 納入其中，我們有多少棟互聯建築。我們已連接超過 60,000 棟建築物和數百萬項連接資產。因此，現在我們能夠擁有 Trane Technologies 所擁有的大量結構化數據，再加上 BrainBox，我們現在開始使用一些非結構化資料來擴充這些資料。

And it's -- as far as the energy efficiency that we're able to achieve in buildings now, it's not only getting the building to operate the way it was designed, it's how can we even do better than that versus how the building is actually being utilized. So it's a very exciting time at Trane Technologies, specifically in our Services business.

就我們現在能夠在建築物中實現的能源效率而言，這不僅是讓建築物按照其設計的方式運行，而且還要考慮如何相對於建築物的實際利用方式做得更好。因此，對於特靈科技來說，這是一個非常令人興奮的時刻，特別是對於我們的服務業務而言。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just first off, I wanted to try and understand the second half Americas organic sales growth outlook a little bit better. So I suppose is the sort of Americas framework, it's kind of high single-digit organic growth both Q3 and Q4 and then you have resi and transport down mid-single in both quarters, year-on-year. Is that the right way to think about that guidance?

也許首先，我想嘗試更了解下半年美洲有機銷售成長前景。所以我認為，這是美洲的框架，第三季和第四季都呈現高個位數有機成長，而兩季的住宅和運輸量都比去年同期出現中位數下降。這是思考該指導的正確方式嗎？

Julian, it's Chris. Yes, we've guided the third quarter to 6% organic revenue growth. And then the implied guidance for the fourth quarter would be in that 9-ish percent range. But think about Commercial HVAC Americas being very consistent in Q3 and Q4, really up low double digits in both quarters. It's a tougher compare actually in the third quarter to prior year results in Commercial HVAC up high teens, an easier compare in the fourth quarter for Commercial HVAC up mid-teens a year ago.

朱利安，我是克里斯。是的，我們預期第三季有機收入成長率為 6%。那麼第四季的隱含指引將在 9% 左右的範圍內。但想想美國商用暖通空調在第三季和第四季的表現非常穩定，兩個季度都實現了兩位數的大幅成長。實際上，與去年第三季度商用暖通空調 (VHVAC) 的業績相比，商用暖通空調 (VHVAC) 的業績上漲了 15% 左右，這比較困難，而與去年第四季度商用暖通空調 (VHVAC) 的業績上漲了 15% 左右，這比較容易。

But think of that business as continuing to execute. We've got a lot of visibility in the backlog to when projects need to be shipped and revenued. So we see that being consistent across the quarters. Think of transport probably more down in the third quarter as we -- as Dave explained, those markets continue to be under pressure. Maybe that's a little more flattish in the fourth quarter.

但請想像一下該業務將繼續執行。我們對積壓項目何時需要出貨和產生收入有很清晰的了解。因此，我們看到各個季度的情況都是一致的。正如戴夫所解釋的那樣，我們認為第三季的運輸業可能會進一步下滑，這些市場繼續承受壓力。第四季的情況可能更加平淡。

And then Residential, we've -- in the second half of the year, taken about $150 million of revenue out in the second half. Think of that as more in the third quarter than the fourth quarter. So we're expecting Residential to be down more in that high single-digit range for Q3, and we'll sequentially do better in the fourth quarter. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of context around the Americas segment.

然後是住宅業務，我們在下半年獲得了約 1.5 億美元的收入。可以認為第三季的增幅大於第四季的增幅。因此，我們預計第三季住宅銷售額將進一步下降，降幅在高個位數範圍內，而第四季的業績將有所改善。希望這能讓您了解一些美洲部分的背景。

That's great. And then my second question, I suppose, just following up on that Residential side of things. Sort of help us understand on the cylinder point, the sort of progress on getting that resolved. And beyond that supply chain issue, I suppose on the demand side, are you seeing any change in customer behavior around sort of mixing down or repair versus replace? Anything on the competitive side shifting?

那太棒了。那麼我的第二個問題，我想，只是跟進一下住宅方面的事情。有助於我們了解圓柱點，以及解決該問題的進展。除了供應鏈問題之外，我想在需求方面，您是否看到客戶在混合或維修與更換方面的行為有任何變化？競爭方面有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. Julian, this is Dave. Look, we started the year in Q1 very strong in Residential. We were up in the high teens. The second quarter was down 6%. Year-to-date, we're up 3%. Look, we have a very, very high concentration in our inventory channels of 454B product. And when we had a bottleneck that occurred really towards the end of April, we were impacted. We reacted quickly. We've been overcharging units from the factory since May. We're working very closely with the suppliers of the refrigerants. So we know what they have committed to us. We know what they have committed to the industry.

是的。朱利安，這是戴夫。你看，我們今年第一季的住宅業務開局非常強勁。我們已經十幾歲了。第二季下降了6%。今年迄今，我們已上漲 3%。你看，我們的庫存通路中 454B 產品的集中度非常高。當我們在四月底遇到瓶頸時，我們受到了影響。我們迅速作出反應。自五月以來，我們一直對工廠的產品收取過高的費用。我們正在與冷媒供應商密切合作。所以我們知道他們對我們做了什麼承諾。我們知道他們對這個行業做出了什麼承諾。

I mean, I guess the good news is, yes, it was an impact. It's isolated, okay? And as we sit here on the -- what's -- it's the July 30, I would say that we could argue whether it's 90% or 95% of this is behind us. But we're looking forward, and we'll get this business back to what our framework is, which over the long term, which is a GDP-plus business.

我的意思是，我想好消息是，是的，它有影響。它是孤立的，好嗎？當我們坐在這裡 — — 今天是 — — 7 月 30 日時，我想說，我們可以爭論一下其中的 90% 或 95% 是否已經過去了。但我們期待著，我們將使這項業務恢復到我們的框架，從長遠來看，這是一項 GDP 加成的業務。

In the second half, we're forecasting inventory coming out of the channel. And we talked about having high inventory at the end of first quarter. Unfortunately, that inventory is still there as we exited the second quarter. So that will burn through. And as Chris said, that will be more of an impact in Q3 versus Q4.

我們預測下半年庫存將會從通路中出來。我們談到了第一季末的高庫存問題。不幸的是，當我們退出第二季時，庫存仍然存在。所以它將會燃燒殆盡。正如克里斯所說，這對第三季的影響將大於對第四季的影響。

On your question on repair versus replace, look, it was probably a difficult quarter to be able to decipher what's happening there with the bottleneck in refrigerant. We'll see what happens as the year progresses. But we haven't seen anything. But again, I think it was probably -- it was not the optimal quarter to see if that's actually moving more to repair versus replace, but we're obviously watching that very closely.

關於您關於維修還是更換的問題，您看，這可能是一個很難的季度，因為要弄清楚冷媒瓶頸到底是怎麼回事。我們將拭目以待，看看未來會發生什麼。但我們什麼也沒看到。但我再次認為，這可能不是觀察修復而非更換是否真正轉向的最佳季度，但我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。

The last thing I'll say on Residential is, and I know you heard me say this at the end of the first quarter when we had high teens growth. Look at Residential over the long term, right? There's a lot of different models out there as far as how we satisfy this channel, two-step, three-step, and you could have one competitor look like they're gaining share and then losing share. Look at the long term and look at the growth trends over the long term. And the good news is, we look forward to getting back to our framework, which is a GDP-plus business.

關於住宅，我要說的最後一件事是，我知道你們在第一季末聽到我說過這句話，當時我們的成長率高達十幾歲。長遠來看住宅，對嗎？關於我們如何滿足這個管道的需求，有很多不同的模型，兩步，三步，你可能會看到一個競爭對手看起來在獲得份額，然後又在失去份額。放眼長遠，看長期的成長趨勢。好消息是，我們期待回到我們的框架，這是一個GDP加成的業務。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

It's getting a broken record, but congrats again on the numbers and such. A couple of little ones. I mean your incrementals sequentially went up from kind of 25% to 32%. Was that mostly just a mix? Or was there timing on investment spend or any other kind of things that impacted that?

這是一個破紀錄的記錄，但再次祝賀這些數字等等。幾個小傢伙。我的意思是您的增量連續從 25% 上升到 32%。那基本上只是混合嗎？或是否有投資支出的時間安排或其他影響因素？

Scott, it's Chris. I'll start. I mean, in the quarter, nice growth in our Services business, right? We like the margins in Services, really good productivity in the factories. It's a hallmark to make sure that we're offsetting other inflation with productivity, and that was strong in the quarter. And then even the volume growth, we got strong leverage on that. So all in, really just managing the full P&L here in the second quarter, but gives us a lot of confidence that the full year will be 25% or better incrementals.

史考特，我是克里斯。我先開始。我的意思是，本季我們的服務業務成長良好，對嗎？我們喜歡服務業的利潤率，工廠的生產效率也很好。這是一個標誌，確保我們用生產力來抵消其他通貨膨脹，而本季的生產力表現強勁。即使銷售成長，我們也獲得了強大的槓桿作用。總而言之，實際上只是管理第二季度的全部損益，但我們非常有信心全年的增幅將達到 25% 或更高。

Yes. But don't think that we haven't stopped investing, Scott, because we continue to invest at a very high level back into the business. This is all about future growth.

是的。但是斯科特，不要以為我們沒有停止投資，因為我們會繼續以非常高的水平重新投資於業務。這一切都與未來的成長有關。

Yes. Understood. Guys, you seem more confident in the China outlook this quarter than back in April. Has the entire market adjusted? I mean I know your US competitors have followed suit with pricing terms and credit and such down payments, et cetera. But has the -- have your foreign competitors adjusted in suit? And has there been a kind of a reset of that market with -- at more favorable terms for you guys?

是的。明白了。夥計們，你們本季對中國前景似乎比四月更有信心。整個市場都調整了嗎？我的意思是，我知道你們的美國競爭對手也紛紛效仿，採取定價條款、信用和首付等方式。但是您的外國競爭對手是否也做出了相應的調整？那麼，市場是否已經進行了某種重置，對你們來說條件更有利？

I think it's mixed. I mean the good news there is, look, in Asia, we've really -- it really met our expectations. We think the full year is going to be flat. It's a smaller part of our business, as you know. But the good news is, look, we're -- our anniversary of our tightened credit policy is upon us. So the comps certainly get easier.

我認為這是混合的。我的意思是，好消息是，在亞洲，我們真的——它真的滿足了我們的期望。我們認為全年將持平。如您所知，這只是我們業務的一小部分。但好消息是，你看，我們——緊縮信貸政策的周年紀念日已經到來。因此比賽肯定會變得更容易。

But with that said, our team, if you look at the sequentials, right, and we spend a lot of time analyzing this, the sequentials are improving. Now you got to take seasonality out of that, but the sequentials are improving from when we first put in these new credit policies to where we are today.

但話雖如此，我們的團隊，如果你看一下順序，對的，我們花了很多時間分析這個，順序正在改善。現在你必須把季節性因素排除在外，但從我們首次實施這些新的信貸政策到現在，連續性正在改善。

So look, we're very confident in saying that Asia will be flat for the year and the good news is our China credit policies have had a one-year birthday. So we're moving forward. Scott, I love your videos too, keep it up, okay.

所以，我們非常有信心地說，今年亞洲的經濟成長將保持平穩，好消息是我們的中國信貸政策已經實施一周年了。所以我們正在前進。斯科特，我也喜歡你的視頻，繼續努力。

I'll try, thanks.

我會嘗試的，謝謝。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

I guess, Chris, we're moving to the higher end of the CapEx range. Do we think the higher CapEx translates to kind of a burning of the backlog? Or do you still expect backlog to stay elevated? And just kind of related to that, I think 50% of the product revenue is sitting in backlog today. So just curious in terms of how much visibility does that give you actually into 2026 from where we stand today?

我想，克里斯，我們正在走向資本支出範圍的高端。我們是否認為更高的資本支出就意味著積壓訂單的減少？或者您仍然預計積壓訂單將保持在高水準？與此相關的是，我認為目前 50% 的產品收入都積壓了。所以我很好奇，從我們今天所處的位置來看，這對 2026 年的前景有多大幫助？

Yes. We're -- backlog remains elevated through the end of the second quarter, and our expectation, Amit, is that it's going to remain elevated through the balance of this year going into next year. We're building backlog already for 2026 and beyond. We've got about $2.5 billion in backlog for '26 and beyond at this point in time. So it's giving us some good visibility to next year.

是的。我們 - 到第二季末，積壓訂單仍然很高，阿米特，我們預計，今年到明年，積壓訂單仍將保持高位。我們已經在為 2026 年及以後的訂單做準備。目前，我們還有大約 25 億美元的 26 年及以後的積壓訂單。因此，這讓我們對明年有了很好的了解。

But with lead times really coming in over the last 18 months, 24 months, you're seeing orders getting placed at roughly a time that's maybe only six months away, nine months away from when deliveries go out, especially in the applied space.

但隨著過去 18 個月、24 個月的交貨時間的推移，你會發現訂單的下達時間大約距離交貨時間只有六個月、九個月，尤其是在應用領域。

So really then refers to what Dave talked about on pipelines, making sure we have really good insight on the pipelines and those continue to be growing. So yes, I think backlog will remain elevated. And right now, it's actually over 90% of our backlog is Commercial HVAC globally and the majority of that is Applied.

所以實際上指的是戴夫談論的管道，確保我們對管道有很好的了解，並且管道不斷增長。是的，我認為積壓訂單仍將居高不下。目前，我們全球 90% 以上的積壓訂單都是商用暖通空調，其中大部分是應用產品。

The good news of it is we were kind of early in the CapEx investing in capacity. And now with really the surge in our Applied business, we're able to meet our customers' expectations from a delivery standpoint. So no issues there.

好消息是我們在資本支出方面很早就開始投資產能。現在，隨著應用程式業務的真正成長，我們能夠從交付的角度滿足客戶的期望。所以那裡沒有問題。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just, Dave, just one follow-up on growth in data centers and how that growth piece is kind of evolving? I mean, we're obviously some of these next-generation chips are proliferating now more than they were before.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，戴夫，您能否跟進一下數據中心的增長情況以及這種增長是如何演變的？我的意思是，顯然，一些下一代晶片現在比以前更加普及。

I noticed you guys talked about kind of expanding your liquid cooling product last month, I think, if I saw that correctly. Can you just talk about -- I know you guys are very well positioned in that vertical and you've been doing it for a long time. But in terms of the fastest-growing parts within the data center, can you just talk about how you guys are positioned there?

我注意到你們上個月談到了擴展液體冷卻產品，如果我沒看錯的話。你能不能談談——我知道你們在這個垂直領域處於非常有利的地位，而且你們已經做了很長時間了。但是就資料中心內成長最快的部分而言，您能否談談您在那裡的定位？

Yes. I mean I think that the data center vertical, and I've been saying this for years now, it's one of those verticals that moves really, really fast from a technology standpoint. And we're on it, right? We're constantly working with the data center customers which I can't name by name, but they're constantly in our labs, and we're working together.

是的。我的意思是，我認為資料中心垂直產業，而且我已經說了好幾年了，從技術角度來看，它是發展非常非常快的垂直產業之一。我們正在做這件事，對吧？我們一直在與資料中心客戶合作，我無法透露他們的名字，但他們一直在我們的實驗室裡，我們正在一起工作。

So yes, we did introduce a CDU. That's part of the solution. Our -- obviously, our water-cooled, air-cooled portfolio is extremely important there. Our air handling systems are very important there. Different aspect ratios of those air handling systems are very important there. We like to look at things at a system level, okay? And when you do that, you start to see where the opportunities are.

是的，我們確實引入了 CDU。這是解決方案的一部分。顯然，我們的水冷、風冷產品組合在那裡極為重要。我們的空氣處理系統在那裡非常重要。這些空氣處理系統的不同縱橫比非常重要。我們喜歡從系統層面看待事物，好嗎？當你這樣做的時候，你就會開始看到機會在哪裡。

And customers -- these customers want a strong partner, and they want a differentiation. I mean I was telling a group the other day, we did a project in Australia, and I can't see who it was with. But we measure efficiencies of systems by the COP or coefficient of performance. And we were able to get a coefficient of performance for this customer in Australia, a very large data center. The COP was north of 10. And that was like unheard of.

而客戶－這些客戶想要一個強大的合作夥伴，他們想要差異化。我的意思是前幾天我告訴一個小組，我們在澳洲做了一個項目，但我不知道是和誰一起做的。但我們透過 COP 或性能係數來衡量系統的效率。我們能夠為澳洲的這個客戶（一個非常大的資料中心）取得效能係數。COP 位於 10 點以北。這是聞所未聞的。

If I told someone that four years ago, they'd think I was kidding them, right? So this is -- these are the types of innovations that our very clever experienced engineering teams are able to develop with these data center customers. So look, we're excited about data centers, but we're more than just data centers. You could tell that by our broad-based growth.

如果四年前我告訴別人這件事，他們會認為我在開玩笑，對嗎？所以這就是——這些是我們非常聰明、經驗豐富的工程團隊能夠與這些資料中心客戶一起開發的創新類型。所以，看，我們對資料中心感到興奮，但我們不僅僅是資料中心。您可以從我們廣泛的成長中看出這一點。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Dave or Chris, someone asked about margin, but I want to ask it maybe a slightly different way. Like organic leverage was impressive despite Asia Pacific and European margins down. And I think Q2's America margin was the highest we've seen from Trane. So I'm just trying to figure out how enduring the Americas performance is.

戴夫或克里斯，有人問到保證金的問題，但我想用稍微不同的方式來問。儘管亞太和歐洲的利潤率下降，但有機槓桿率仍然令人印象深刻。我認為第二季特靈在美國市場的利潤率是有史以來最高的。所以我只是想弄清楚美洲的表現能持續多久。

I know you said you want to continue to invest, but there's a lot going on, mix up, better productivity, you're burning more complex large applied jobs. I'm trying to figure out if they're accretive or not. So maybe just all this interplay, the durability of this Americas performance moving forward.

我知道你說過你想繼續投資，但還有很多事情要做，混合起來，提高生產力，你正在燃燒更複雜的大型應用工作。我試圖弄清楚它們是否具有增值性。所以也許正是所有這些相互作用，才決定了美國的表現能否持久。

Andy, I'll start. Look, I think the old tape of the mix of businesses having different margins, hopefully, that puts us finally to rest as you think about the Commercial HVAC performance in the quarter and what we were able to perform there. But I really think it's across the P&L in terms of where we saw the benefits and the leverage.

安迪，我先開始。你看，我認為舊的業務組合具有不同的利潤率，希望這能讓我們最終安心，因為你會想到本季的商業暖通空調表現以及我們在那裡的表現。但我確實認為，從我們所看到的收益和槓桿作用來看，它是貫穿整個損益表的。

The strong productivity, good incrementals on volumes, price over inflation on a dollar basis and a percentage basis, but also making sure we're making the investments in the business. So I think the second quarter is really kind of following the same playbook.

強勁的生產力、良好的產量增量、以美元和百分比計算的通膨價格，同時也確保我們對業務進行投資。所以我認為第二季度實際上是遵循同樣的劇本。

Margins came in a little bit ahead, but healthy leverage there. And again, the services business continues to drive margin accretion as part of a third of the portfolio of the enterprise. So we've not changed the formula. The investment flywheel continues, and we just say that we're really confident that we'll have growth on the full year.

利潤率略有提高，但槓桿率仍然健康。再次，服務業務作為企業投資組合的三分之一，繼續推動利潤的成長。所以我們沒有改變公式。投資飛輪繼續運轉，我們只是說我們非常有信心全年成長。

That's helpful, Chris. And then, Dave, I think you guys mentioned that your light Unitary business is still doing reasonably well, which is a bit of a contrast versus some of your peers. So I know it's difficult to draw a line between larger Unitary and Applied. But maybe talk about sort of that particular end market and why Trane is outperforming?

這很有幫助，克里斯。然後，戴夫，我想你們提到過，你們的輕型單一業務仍然表現得相當好，這與你們的一些同行形成了鮮明對比。所以我知道在更大的單元法和應用法之間劃一條界線是困難的。但也許可以談談那個特定的終端市場以及 Trane 為何表現出色？

Well, look, first of all, I think the unitary market is going to be much softer than the applied market, at least here in the Americas. But look, we continue to -- we're performing well, really. I mean, as I said, Applied was much stronger than Unitary, both were positive. That's a good thing.

嗯，首先，我認為單一市場將比應用市場軟得多，至少在美洲是如此。但是你看，我們繼續下去——我們確實表現得很好。我的意思是，正如我所說，Applied 比 Unitary 強得多，兩者都是正面的。這是一件好事。

And Andy, I think it really goes to the focus we have on the broad base of the verticals that we're servicing. There are some verticals that have more of a concentration around unitary solutions. And with the direct sales force and being able to have expertise within our regional offices, we're able to capture where those growth opportunities are. So it's really just good execution.

安迪，我認為這確實體現了我們對所服務的廣泛垂直行業的關注。有些垂直產業更重視單一解決方案。憑藉直銷隊伍和區域辦事處的專業知識，我們能夠抓住這些成長機會。所以這確實只是很好的執行。

I would say we're now into the kind of the book-and-burn kind of side of that unitary with the replacement market with high heat. So we'll see how the year finishes out. But we're happy with our performance right now, really across our Commercial HVAC businesses, but certainly here in the Americas.

我想說，我們現在已經進入了那種單一書籍即焚燒的領域，並且面臨高熱度的替代市場。因此，我們將拭目以待今年的收尾情況。但我們對目前的表現感到滿意，尤其是我們的商用暖通空調業務，當然還有美洲的業務。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Chris, can you maybe just unpack the guidance increase? So $0.25 at the midpoint. And it seems like, look, FX is about $0.05. But -- are you -- and you're only increasing your organic growth by 50 basis points. So is this just going to be better margins, better performance in the first half? Just help me unpack like the $0.25 number.

克里斯，您能否解釋一下指導增加的原因？所以中間點是 0.25 美元。看起來，外匯交易大約是0.05美元。但是——你呢——而且你的有機成長率只提高了50個基點。那麼這是否意味著上半年的利潤率會更高、業績會更好呢？只要幫我解開像 0.25 美元這樣的數字就行。

Yes. Our last guide for the year was $12.70 to $12.90, and we said we were really at the higher end of that range three months ago, Joe. So raising it to $13.05 on the full year, think about that as taking the Q2 beat and then some and passing it through. FX was probably around in that range of what you were talking about.

是的。我們上一次的年度指導價是12.70美元到12.90美元，喬，三個月前我們就說過，我們實際上處於這個區間的高端。所以，把全年的指導價提高到13.05美元，可以理解為，把第二季的業績預期提高一些，然後再提高一些，然後繼續執行。FX 可能就在您談論的這個範圍內。

But it really is the operational performance in the business that I think we like putting out guidance that we can meet or achieve or exceed. And the fact is the operational performance really led by Commercial HVAC and the execution in the team is really driving the performance and how we think about the outlook for the balance of the year.

但我認為，我們真正喜歡發布的是我們可以滿足、實現或超越的業務營運績效指引。事實上，商業暖通空調真正引領了營運績效，團隊的執行力真正推動了績效，也決定了我們如何看待今年的平衡前景。

On revenues, think about it as to get to the 8% on the full year versus where we were three months ago, think of it as a stronger Commercial HVAC Americas business. We're taking that guidance up to low double digits in terms of revenue growth.

就營收而言，如果全年營收與三個月前相比成長 8%，那麼我們可以將其視為美洲商業暖通空調業務的強勁成長。就營收成長而言，我們將這一預期提高到兩位數的低點。

Residential, we think prudently, we've reduced the revenues around $300 million on the full year. That's about a rough 1.5 points at the enterprise. So that's a subtraction. And then we're layering in plus and minus, tariff pricing, where we're really trying to thread the needle between the price/cost equation there on pricing to really offset the cost, starting with mitigating the cost, but then ultimately trying to price for any residual.

住宅方面，我們謹慎地認為，全年收入減少了約 3 億美元。這對企業來說大約是 1.5 分。所以這是一個減法。然後，我們分層疊加加減關稅定價，我們實際上試圖在定價上將價格/成本方程式結合起來，以真正抵消成本，首先從降低成本開始，然後最終嘗試為任何殘餘定價。

So that's really the puts and takes on the top line and then a lot of confidence on the operational performance here driving comfort in raising the bottom line.

因此，這實際上是對營業收入的投入和產出，然後對這裡的營運績效有很大信心，從而推動提高利潤的舒適度。

Got it. That makes a lot of sense, Chris. And then maybe just my follow-up, Dave, going back to your comments earlier about getting back to being a GDP-plus business on the Residential side of things. I know it's early, but as you're kind of thinking through maybe beyond this year and this whole -- some of the noise that we're experiencing here because of the refrigerant change, when you start thinking about 2026, is that a year where we start getting back potentially to GDP-plus from a volume standpoint on resi HVAC?

知道了。這很有道理，克里斯。然後也許只是我的後續問題，戴夫，回到你之前關於在住宅方面重新成為 GDP 加成業務的評論。我知道現在還為時過早，但是當您考慮一下今年以後以及整個時期的情況時——由於冷媒的變化，我們在這裡遇到了一些噪音，當您開始考慮 2026 年時，從住宅 HVAC 的銷量角度來看，這一年我們是否有可能開始回到 GDP 以上的水平？

And then also, just how are you thinking about pricing? There's a lot of pricing that went into the system and like the inelasticity of your dealer network or customers ultimately taking on additional price in resi?

還有，您如何考慮定價？系統中涉及許多定價，例如經銷商網路的缺乏彈性或客戶最終是否承擔了額外的價格？

Yes. Look, first of all, I think we had an isolated incident in Q2, number one, right? And we didn't see that coming. I don't think the industry saw that coming. So there's no structural problems within Residential and people need to really understand that. And we've been saying for a while that this is a GDP-plus business.

是的。首先，我認為我們在第二季度發生了一起孤立事件，對嗎？我們沒有預見到這種情況。我認為業界並未預見這種情況。因此，住宅內部不存在結構性問題，人們需要真正理解這一點。我們一直在說，這是一項 GDP 加成業務。

So look, there's a lot of noise out there in 2025. A lot of change happening there, a little bump in the road here in Q2. We believe we're going to get back to a GDP-plus business. And I'll give you a more definitive answer when we get our -- when we report our fourth quarter, we talk about the guide for 2026.

所以，看看吧，2025 年外面有很多噪音。那裡發生了很多變化，第二季出現了一些小困難。我們相信，我們將重新回到GDP+的業務狀態。當我們報告第四季時，我們會討論 2026 年的指南，我會給你一個更明確的答案。

But look, overall, this is a good business. And don't let the noise confuse you. It's a good solid business. We do well here. And this is going to get back on track here. And like I said, there's no structural problems within the industry.

但整體來說，這是一筆好生意。不要讓噪音困擾你。這是一筆很好的、穩固的生意。我們在這裡做得很好。一切將會回到正軌。正如我所說，這個行業內部不存在結構性問題。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just maybe hash out for resi what your price and mix expectations are for the back half? And then just help us parse out. I think you guys said $75 million to $100 million in prebuy last year. Maybe square that with the $150 million number.

您能否詳細討論一下您對後半部的價格和組合預期？然後就幫我們解析一下。我認為你們去年的預購價格是 7500 萬到 1 億美元。也許可以將其與 1.5 億美元的數字相乘。

Let me start with your first question, Residential. So we're expecting in the second half -- if I remove the 454B impact from volumes, which is really how we started the year and thinking about it. But if we really want to isolate volume impact from price, then we're expecting volumes to be down in the second half, more so in the third quarter based on how that $150 million of revenue reduction in the second half, that's more, Steve, in the third quarter than it is in the fourth quarter. But we expect both quarters to see some volume reduction in the second half.

讓我先從您的第一個問題“住宅”開始。因此，我們預計下半年——如果我從交易量中消除 454B 的影響，這實際上就是我們今年年初的想法。但如果我們真的想將銷售影響與價格分開，那麼我們預計下半年銷量會下降，第三季的下降幅度會更大，因為下半年營收減少了 1.5 億美元，史蒂夫，第三季的下降幅度要大於第四季。但我們預計下半年兩季的銷售量都會有所下降。

Dave talked about having to get some of that inventory out of the channel as well. So we think that, that's prudent. Pricing is in that double-digit range, low double-digit range. So net-net, it's a reduction in the second half, and that gets you to roughly flattish on residential for the full year.

戴夫還談到必須將部分庫存從渠道中取出。所以我們認為這是謹慎的。定價為兩位數範圍，低兩位數範圍。因此，淨額是下半年的減少，這使得全年住宅用電量大致持平。

Yes, because your mix is included in that volume, right? That's the way you guys report it. The mix is kind of included in your volume discussion?

是的，因為你的混音包含在那卷中，對嗎？你們就是這麼報道的。這種混合包含在您的音量討論中嗎？

Well, that's how we started it. But if I remove that mix from volume and I say, okay, let's just put -- isolate volume.

嗯，這就是我們的開始。但是如果我從音量中移除該混合併說，好吧，讓我們只放置 - 隔離音量。

Got it. Got it.

知道了。知道了。

Volumes are down, right? I just think that was prudent to maybe talk about it that way this time around.

音量下降了，對嗎？我只是認為這次以這種方式談論它是明智之舉。

Yes. Okay. And the $75 million to $100 million that prebuy, that came -- I don't quite recall that, that came mostly in the fourth, correct? Last year that you guys had estimated?

是的。好的。而預購的 7,500 萬到 1 億美元──我記不太清楚了，大部分是在第四季到帳的，對嗎？去年你們有估計過嗎？

Think of it as $100 million, right? And if you remember, in Q1, we had a very strong Q1, but we said the $100 million is still there. I think we probably replaced the 410 with the 454 product, which is obviously that's where we had the bottleneck that occurred. But we believe that our inventory in that independent wholesale distributor channel is still at an elevated level. Think of it in that $100 million to $125 million range. And there's still a little bit of noise with the 454B canister replacement. So that's how you get to the $150 million, Steve, roughly.

把它想像成 1 億美元，對嗎？如果你還記得的話，在第一季度，我們的業績非常強勁，但我們表示 1 億美元仍未動搖。我認為我們可能用 454 產品取代了 410，這顯然就是我們遇到瓶頸的地方。但我們相信，我們在該獨立批發經銷商通路的庫存仍處於較高水準。想像一下這個範圍，金額在 1 億美元到 1.25 億美元之間。更換 454B 濾罐後仍會產生一點噪音。史蒂夫，這就是你大概得出 1.5 億美元數字的方式。

Got it. And then just one last quick one on Services. Really good, obviously, growth rate in the low double digits. It's decelerating a bit from the mid-teens you guys did last year. I think the HVAC cycle really picked up a couple of years ago.

知道了。最後再簡單談談服務。確實很好，顯然，增長率在兩位數以下。與去年的十幾歲相比，這一速度有所減緩。我認為 HVAC 循環在幾年前才真正開始興起。

Is there anything moving around that is influencing that? You said two years from the pickup, you'd start to see an acceleration. Is there anything going on outside of this chiller tail, if you will, in Services? And I guess the implication is, is that low double-digit number that you're seeing today, does that accelerate because of all the Applied stuff that you're putting in there now?

周圍有什麼動靜會對此產生影響嗎？您說過，從回升開始兩年後，就會開始看到加速。如果您願意的話，在服務中，這個冷卻器尾部之外還發生了什麼事嗎？我想這意味著，您今天看到的這個低兩位數數字，是否由於您現在投入的所有應用材料而加速成長？

Well, we always like to see accelerate things. Look, I think the only -- first of all, we're very happy with our Service business. We're investing a lot in it. It is a third of the company, and it's had stellar performance really over a long period of time. If I had to say what's changing there, it really comes to these connected solutions, Steve.

嗯，我們總是喜歡看到事情加速發展。看，我認為唯一——首先，我們對我們的服務業務非常滿意。我們對此投入了大量資金。它占公司股份的三分之一，長期以來表現優異。如果我必須說那裡發生了什麼變化，那實際上就是這些互聯解決方案，史蒂夫。

I think early on, we explained to you about how being connected to the asset, like -- think of it as continuous commissioning that has now really started to accelerate. So hopefully, that becomes more of a flywheel in the future, and we have a lot of people working on it. It's part of the -- some of the big investments that we're making there to make sure that we can ensure that this 30% of energy after the meter, we estimate that number to be very conservative is being wasted, right? And we know we have solutions today that can solve that.

我認為很早以前我們就向您解釋過如何與資產相連，就像 - 將其視為持續的調試，現在已經真正開始加速。所以希望，未來它會變得更像一個飛輪，而且我們有很多人正在為此努力。這是我們在那裡進行的一些重大投資的一部分，以確保我們能夠確保電錶後的 30% 能源被浪費，我們估計這個數字是非常保守的，對嗎？我們知道我們今天有解決方案可以解決這個問題。

And I think as the price of energy continues to escalate, that's going to become more relevant to everyone, and it also provides great, great paybacks for our solutions. So I think that you're going to hear more of that in the future.

我認為，隨著能源價格不斷上漲，這將與每個人變得更加相關，並且它也將為我們的解決方案帶來巨大的回報。所以我認為你將來會聽到更多這樣的消息。

I know you're hearing it from Trane Technologies, but you're going to hear more of that in the future because the demand side does not get enough attention. We want to talk a lot about the supply side, the demand side, okay, if we're wasting precious energy, that is something that we can solve relatively quickly. And it provides payback for customers.

我知道您是從特靈科技那裡聽說的，但是您將來會聽到更多這樣的消息，因為需求方沒有得到足夠的重視。我們想多談談供應方和需求方，好吧，如果我們正在浪費寶貴的能源，那麼我們可以相對快速地解決這個問題。並為客戶提供回報。

Right. So yes, it's good growth. It's good growth. 12% is very good growth, obviously.

正確的。是的，這是好的成長。這是良好的增長。顯然，12％是非常好的成長。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），Vertical Research Partners。

Maybe just a few nits to wrap up here on my side. Just Chris, back to your comment about resi price/mix low double digit. I would have thought mix itself was maybe 10-ish. Can you just give us a little bit more color on kind of the mix effect you're getting and then what kind of price you're actually getting on top of that?

也許我這邊只需要解決幾個小問題。克里斯，回到你關於住宅價格/混合低兩位數的評論。我原本以為混合物本身大概是 10 左右。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您所獲得的混合效果以及您在此基礎上實際獲得的價格？

Yes. I just put a price/mix together, Jeff, and that's up the low double digits here in the second half. That would be inclusive of what we're seeing on 454B and otherwise. So mix is obviously a part of that, but I just put it together.

是的。傑夫，我剛剛把價格/組合放在一起，下半年的價格上漲到了兩位數。這將包括我們在 454B 和其他方面看到的內容。因此混合顯然是其中的一部分，但我只是把它放在一起。

Okay. And then just on tariffs again, Chris. So you mentioned your margin positive in the quarter on tariffs. I don't know if that was a tariff isolated number or a total kind of inflation number. But do you see -- do your expectations for the balance of the year imply that you remain margin accretive on inflation?

好的。然後再談關稅，克里斯。所以您提到本季關稅利潤率為正。我不知道這是一個與關稅無關的數字還是整體通膨數字。但是您是否看到了——您對今年餘額的預期是否意味著您在通貨膨脹的情況下仍能保持利潤增長？

Yes, Jeff, my comment was really around just price and inflation all in. So think about inflation not just being tariffs, but as we think about our commodities, our Tier 1, our Tier 2 and just making sure that price is staying ahead of inflation, part of our business operating system. That was my comment there.

是的，傑夫，我的評論實際上只是關於價格和通貨膨脹。因此，考慮通貨膨脹不僅僅是關稅，當我們考慮我們的商品、我們的一級商品、我們的二級商品時，只需確保價格領先通貨膨脹，這是我們業務營運系統的一部分。這是我的評論。

On tariffs, look, it was pretty modest, almost immaterial impact here in the second quarter. The pricing on tariffs, assuming what we knew as of Monday holds and it's very dynamic, as we all know, with negotiations ongoing, that will ramp as it moves throughout the year. The goal is still to keep mitigating the actual impact.

就關稅而言，它對第二季的影響相當溫和，幾乎沒有實質影響。假設我們週一所了解的情況保持不變，那麼關稅定價就會非常動態，眾所周知，隨著談判的進行，關稅定價將隨著全年的變動而上升。目標仍然是繼續減輕實際影響。

But we know that if there is a net impact, we're going to have to -- the plan is to price for it. So don't think of it as it's margin accretive on tariffs. We're going to thread the needle to make sure that it is margin neutral on a dollar basis. We don't want this to become a profit center, but that may take a little bit of time to get there. But ultimately, that's our target, and we're still executing to that.

但我們知道，如果產生淨影響，我們就必須——計劃對其進行定價。因此，不要認為它能透過關稅增加利潤。我們將採取各種措施以確保其在美元基礎上的利潤中性。我們不希望它成為一個利潤中心，但要實現這一目標可能需要一點時間。但最終，這是我們的目標，我們仍在努力實現這一目標。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

I'm really interested in how many times this revenue multiplier has been talked about on the call, the 8x to 10x over the economic life of the business. How does that vary by either by region or probably more by application? I would imagine data center is going to be the highest given how complex and redundancy they have, but maybe it's more how much connected the systems are like that continuous commissioning. So how does that vary, the 8x to 10x? And might it go higher, the more connected the customer is?

我真正感興趣的是，在電話會議上討論了多少次這個收入乘數，即企業經濟壽命內的 8 倍到 10 倍。這如何因地區或應用的差異而有所差異？考慮到資料中心的複雜性和冗餘性，我認為資料中心將是最高的，但也許更重要的是系統的連接程度，例如持續調試。那麼 8 倍到 10 倍之間有何變化呢？而且，客戶的聯繫越緊密，這個數字是否會越高？

I don't see it go more higher, okay? I think the higher would be on the energy savings and it'd probably be a different revenue stream that would be in the future on the digital side. On the 8x to 10x, think of it as it doesn't really vary by region. It would vary by product, okay? So think of it as the more sophisticated chillers are in that 8x to 10x range.

我看不到它再升高，好嗎？我認為更高的將是能源節省，而這可能是未來數字方面的一個不同的收入來源。在 8x 到 10x 之間，可以認為它實際上並不因地區而異。它會因產品而異，好嗎？因此，可以認為更複雜的冷卻器處於 8 倍到 10 倍的範圍內。

Obviously, Unitary, we're not including that when we say that because -- and that's not the focus of our Service business. But don't think of it as a regional variation, think of it more as a product variation. And we're obviously very strong in the chiller portfolio, and that's a big part of our service business. So that's where we would see this 8x to 10x tail.

顯然，當我們這麼說的時候，我們並沒有把這一點包括在內，因為——這不是我們服務業務的重點。但不要將其視為地區差異，而應將其視為產品差異。我們的冷水機組產品組合顯然非常強大，這是我們服務業務的重要組成部分。這就是我們可以看到 8 倍到 10 倍尾巴的地方。

That's really helpful. And just a follow-up on data center, you divided up your commercial, made a reference between data center and non-data center. Your competitor yesterday did the same thing. How did data center do in the quarter? So -- and what kind of growth rate are you expecting for the year for that vertical?

這真的很有幫助。關於資料中心的後續問題，您劃分了商業，並在資料中心和非資料中心之間進行了參考。你的競爭對手昨天也做了同樣的事情。本季資料中心表現如何？那麼—您預計今年該垂直產業的成長率是多少？

Deane, it's a great question. We're not going to size it there. We haven't sized our Data Center business for various competitive reasons. But I think when I think about the Applied bookings, and that's where Data Center bookings would go into, I think we're getting more than our fair share.

迪恩，這是一個很好的問題。我們不會在那裡確定其大小。由於各種競爭原因，我們尚未確定資料中心業務的規模。但我認為，當我考慮應用預訂時，這就是資料中心預訂的用途，我認為我們獲得的份額超過了我們應得的份額。

And I think it really comes down to innovation. It comes down to those relationships that Dave talked about and having the direct sales force that stays connected with these customers over a long period of time to innovate for the solutions today and then what they want to bring in 2- to 3 years' time.

我認為這實際上歸結於創新。這歸結於戴夫談到的那些關係，以及擁有與這些客戶長期保持聯繫的直銷隊伍，以便為當今的解決方案進行創新，然後為未來 2 到 3 年帶來什麼。

So the 120% two-year stack of Applied bookings is really indicative of our strength across all the verticals. And just important to highlight, it's not just data centers. And we don't want it to solely be that. These are verticals that have ebbs and flows, and we like having the broad-based growth. So we're there when these verticals, if they're slower now and they return, we like having that sales force direct and exposed to that. So that's why we just keep investing fully in our services business to make sure we're ready after the applied business comes in, we've got the ability to execute on Services.

因此，應用產品訂單量兩年內成長 120% 確實顯示了我們在所有垂直領域的實力。需要強調的是，這不僅僅是資料中心。我們不希望它僅僅如此。這些垂直行業有起有落，我們喜歡廣泛的成長。因此，當這些垂直行業現在發展較慢並且隨後又恢復時，我們會立即採取行動，我們希望銷售人員能夠直接接觸這些行業。這就是為什麼我們繼續全力投資我們的服務業務，以確保在應用業務進入後我們做好準備，我們有能力執行服務。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

I promise you no more resi questions. I think we've beaten that dead horse to --

我向你保證不會再有剩餘的問題。我認為我們已經把這匹死馬打敗了--

Nigel, I was going to ask you what you have in your home, but you probably won't tell me.

奈傑爾，我本來想問你家裡有什麼，但你可能不會告訴我。

I'm not going to disclose that information. It's confidential information, but I'll tell you offline. So here we go. So I just want to pick up on the last question around the applied -- the broad-based strength, and you called out education and health care.

我不會透露該資訊。這是機密訊息，但我會在線下告訴你。那麼我們就開始吧。所以我只想回答關於應用的最後一個問題——廣泛的優勢，你提到了教育和醫療保健。

And education, we've had a lot of angst around the ESSER funding blown off, muni bond issuance, et cetera. And health care, we know the hospitals have got a lot of funding pressures. So just curious what -- specifically within those two end-markets, what do you think is driving the continued strength in order patterns?

在教育方面，我們對 ESSER 融資被取消、市政債券發行等問題感到非常焦慮。就醫療保健而言，我們知道醫院面臨很大的資金壓力。所以只是好奇——特別是在這兩個終端市場中，您認為是什麼推動了訂單模式的持續強勁？

Yes. Well, education, we've been saying for a while, look, just because ESSER funding is -- it's not behind us from a revenue stream, but it's behind us from an order stream. Don't assume that market is going to fall off a cliff because if anything, it kind of heightened demand for how underinvested in the infrastructure is of many of the schools around the -- certainly here in the United States.

是的。好吧，教育，我們已經說了一段時間了，看，只是因為 ESSER 資金 - 它不是從收入流中支持我們，而是從訂單流中支持我們。不要以為市場會急劇下滑，因為如果有的話，它會加劇人們對周圍許多學校的基礎設施投資不足的需求——當然是在美國。

So look, we still see activity there, but we see really strong growth in the higher-end side of things. And this is really where -- the universities are using their physical space and how they control that physical space as a way to attract students into their organization.

所以看，我們仍然看到那裡的活動，但我們看到高端方面的成長確實強勁。這就是大學真正利用其物理空間以及他們如何控制該物理空間來吸引學生加入其組織的方式。

And if you've ever had the opportunity to go on a tour, they'll talk about that, about their dormitories and how they're conditioned and what they're doing for indoor air quality. So we're seeing a lot of demand there. And as you would expect, that's right in our sweet spot. These are usually complex systems. And in some cases, they're retrofitting buildings that are extremely aged, and the solutions sometimes become more complicated than you may imagine. But we're doing really, really well there.

如果你有機會去參觀，他們會談論這一點，談論他們的宿舍、宿舍的空氣調節以及他們為改善室內空氣品質所做的工作。因此我們看到那裡有很多需求。正如您所期望的，這正是我們的最佳狀態。這些通常是複雜的系統。在某些情況下，他們正在改造極其老舊的建築，而解決方案有時比你想像的要複雜得多。但我們在那裡做得確實非常好。

Well, I'm going through that process in my second boy now. So I'll definitely keep my ears up for that indoor air quality. I was kind of hoping you're going to talk about heat (multiple speakers)

嗯，我現在正在為我的第二個兒子經歷這個過程。所以我一定會密切注意室內空氣品質。我有點希望你會談論熱（多位發言者）

On a separate question or a separate call, you could tell me what schools you're going to, and I'll let you know, okay?

在單獨的問題或單獨的電話中，你可以告訴我你要去哪所學校，然後我會告訴你，好嗎？

Okay. Well, let's have that call. But I was kind of hoping you can talk about maybe sort of electrification of heat, but maybe I touch on that in a separate question. But in China, I know it's not a huge business for you, but we're seeing just broad-based another step down, it seems in China, which might not be a big surprise based on the stats we're seeing from the market there.

好的。好吧，我們打個電話吧。但我有點希望你能談論熱電化，但也許我會在另一個問題中談到這一點。但在中國，我知道這對您來說並不是一項大生意，但我們看到，在中國，似乎出現了又一次廣泛的下滑，根據我們從中國市場看到的統計數據，這可能並不令人意外。

But just maybe talk about what you've seen in China and more importantly, around pricing, around credit quality and things like that. Just wondering what if there could be some risks going forward in China.

但也許只是談談你在中國看到的情況，更重要的是關於定價、信用品質等等。我只是想知道中國未來是否會面臨一些風險。

Yes, Nigel, I'll start. It's Chris. Look, the Asia region makes up around 7% of our enterprise revenues and half of that would be China, half of that would be rest of Asia and think of that as 10-plus countries that we operate in. We're seeing the slower markets in China. And to Dave's point, it was a year ago that we implemented the tighter credit policies there. And now starting in the third quarter of 2025, we've got comps that are comparable to that credit policy implementation from a year ago.

是的，奈傑爾，我先開始了。是克里斯。你看，亞洲地區約占我們企業收入的 7%，其中一半來自中國，另一半來自亞洲其他地區，我們經營所在的國家有 10 多個。我們看到中國市場正在放緩。正如戴夫所說，一年前我們就在那裡實施了更嚴格的信貸政策。從 2025 年第三季開始，我們的業績與一年前實施的信貸政策相當。

So we think from a comp perspective, things certainly get easier, but we're watchful. It's a choppy environment for sure. And it's why we're viewing still the Asia segment to be flattish on the full year with declines in China with rest and performance -- positive performance in the rest of Asia.

因此，我們認為從公司角度來看，事情肯定會變得更容易，但我們會保持警惕。這肯定是一個不穩定的環境。這就是為什麼我們認為亞洲市場全年仍將持平，中國市場將下滑，而亞洲其他地區則表現積極。

So let's see how it plays out, but we're investing still in that region. It's a region-for-region methodology and a lot of great confidence in the team there.

所以讓我們看看結果如何，但我們仍在該地區投資。這是一種區域對區域的方法，我對那裡的團隊充滿信心。

And Nigel, your question too on the electrification of heating, that's still -- I mean, it's -- we now have a core portfolio of products on a global basis there, and we're making a lot of headwind there. It's part of this growth profile that we have.

奈傑爾，你的問題也是關於暖氣電氣化，這仍然是——我的意思是——我們現在在全球範圍內擁有核心產品組合，而且我們在那裡遇到了很多阻力。這是我們的成長概況的一部分。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Just a little bit on transport. It seems like we are at the bottom. I know that you are referencing the ACT forecast, but the truck cycle and the refresh cycle has been very strange over the past couple of years. What do you guys see in the channel? And when do you think it bottoms? And I do appreciate the ACT disclosure, very useful.

只是關於交通的一點點。看起來我們已經處於最低谷了。我知道您引用的是 ACT 預測，但過去幾年的卡車週期和更新周期非常奇怪。你們在頻道裡看到了什麼？您認為什麼時候會觸底？我非常欣賞 ACT 的披露，非常有用。

Yes. I mean, look, at the end of the day, transport -- you're right, it's been very volatile for the last -- I think we kid ourselves and say we're in year three of a two-year cycle or maybe even year four of a two-year down cycle. So we do see that ACT is going to come back -- or I'm sorry, the market is going to come back in 2026. That's what ACT is saying now. We're looking forward to it.

是的。我的意思是，看看吧，歸根結底，運輸業——你是對的，最近它一直非常不穩定——我想我們是在自欺欺人，說我們正處於兩年周期的第三年，甚至是兩年下行週期的第四年。所以我們確實看到 ACT 將會回歸——或者抱歉，市場將在 2026 年回歸。這就是 ACT 現在所說的。我們對此充滿期待。

The key here is make sure that you're investing in the business when it is in a downturn. And that's what we've been able to do, and we have a lot of really cool solutions that we now have in the marketplace. And one of the reasons why we're clearly outperforming the end markets is because of that. But we're looking forward to this coming back in 2026, and we're going to be ready for it. And look, as an old President for Thermo King business in my -- earlier in my career, this is a great business, and it's going to be very successful in the future.

這裡的關鍵是確保在企業處於低迷時期時對其進行投資。這就是我們能夠做到的，而且我們目前在市場上已經有許多非常酷的解決方案。這也是我們表現明顯優於終端市場的原因之一。但我們期待它在 2026 年回歸，並且我們將為此做好準備。你看，作為我職業生涯早期擔任 Thermo King 公司總裁期間所做出的決定——這是一家偉大的公司，而且未來一定會非常成功。

I appreciate it. And then just on data centers, as you have noted, you've introduced the CDU. But any interest in getting more scale in this area through M&A? I think there might be some sort of private equity assets available down the line?

我很感激。然後就在資料中心，正如您所說，您已經引入了 CDU。但是，您有興趣透過併購來擴大該領域的規模嗎？我認為未來可能會有某種私募股權資產可用？

Andrew, it's Chris. I mean, as a large player, we get a chance to see just about everything that comes across from an M&A perspective. So we'll remain disciplined. We'll look at returns. We'll look at where we can integrate, where we can drive value. And certainly, we like the space that we're in. We like having the partnerships that we have and then the relationships with customers over time.

安德魯，我是克里斯。我的意思是，作為一家大型企業，我們有機會從併購的角度看到幾乎所有遇到的事情。因此我們將保持紀律。我們將專注於回報。我們將研究哪裡可以整合，哪裡可以創造價值。當然，我們喜歡我們所處的空間。我們喜歡與現有的合作夥伴以及與客戶建立長期的關係。

But as you know, we've got the financial firepower to do almost anything, but we're going to remain disciplined here around M&A.

但正如你所知，我們擁有做幾乎任何事情的財力，但我們將在併購方面保持紀律。

But is there sort of a limit on how big an asset -- all your acquisitions have been very prudent, but they've been really bolt-ons. Would you be willing to step up for something larger in a critical area?

但是資產規模是否存在某種限制——你們的所有收購都是非常謹慎的，但它們實際上都是附加的。您是否願意在關鍵領域做出更大的貢獻？

Yes. I would just say, look, bolt-ons for us is $1 billion or less, and that number keeps growing as we keep growing. But look, we like the bolt-ons. We like the channel investments. We like the early-stage technologies and match it up with deep channel. And so maybe a little bit below the radar, but we've had, I think it's 25- to 30 acquisitions over the last five years and deployed over $1 billion of capital to them, I think closer to $1.5 billion. So look, we like that flywheel. We look at everything. And if we think that there's an option that makes sense, we'll certainly give it a look. But we'll remain disciplined, I think, is the key message.

是的。我只想說，看，我們的附加費用是 10 億美元或更少，而且隨著我們的不斷發展，這個數字還會不斷增長。但是你看，我們喜歡這些附加裝置。我們喜歡通路投資。我們看好早期技術，並將其與深度頻道進行配對。所以可能有點低於人們的預期，但我認為在過去五年中我們已經進行了 25 到 30 次收購，並為其投入了超過 10 億美元的資金，我認為接近 15 億美元。所以看，我們喜歡那個飛輪。我們觀察一切。如果我們認為有一個合理的選擇，我們肯定會考慮一下。但我認為，我們將保持紀律，這是關鍵訊息。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞·凱伊，奧本海默。

Chris, just to go back to Jeff's question. Can you give us the updated price assumption for the enterprise for the year? And then maybe more broadly, we can talk through where pricing power is in Applied given the booking strength and the fact that you're always pricing for value creation?

克里斯，回到傑夫的問題。您能否提供我們該企業今年最新的價格假設？然後也許更廣泛地說，我們可以討論一下，考慮到預訂實力以及您始終為創造價值而定價的事實，應用公司的定價權在哪裡？

Yes. I think for price on the full year, think of that it's probably a bit above 3 points. We delivered 3 points in the first quarter. We were tracking a bit above 3 points in the second quarter. And for the full year, as we're baking tariffs in there, we're probably a bit above 3 points on the full year. And then think of volume as really closer to 5 points on the full year.

是的。我認為，就全年價格而言，可能略高於 3 個百分點。我們在第一節就拿下了3分。我們在第二節的得分略高於3分。就全年而言，由於我們正在考慮關稅，因此全年的增幅可能略高於 3 個百分點。然後將交易量視為全年實際上更接近 5 點。

Perfect. Maybe just add one more. On EMEA, you mentioned those channel investments and the margins improving in the back half. Maybe just if you can help us think about how that translates to growth accelerating, stronger incrementals setting up into '26. I'm sure these investments are really fortifying your channel position there.

完美的。也許只需再增加一個。關於歐洲、中東和非洲地區，您提到了這些通路投資以及下半年利潤率的提高。也許您能幫助我們思考這如何轉化為加速成長，如何在 26 年實現更強勁的增量。我確信這些投資確實鞏固了您在那裡的通路地位。

Yes. Think of them as investments in the channel for both transport and our Commercial HVAC business, thinking about where we have partners and where we want to grow share. And so those are just businesses, actually part of the bolt-on acquisitions we've done over the last 6- or 9 months. And they just come with low operating margins that impact the margins in the region. I mean we're talking a bit around the law of small numbers here as well, but very much part of our plans for the year.

是的。將它們視為對運輸和商業暖通空調業務管道的投資，思考我們在哪裡有合作夥伴以及我們想在哪裡增加份額。所以這些只是業務，實際上是我們在過去 6 到 9 個月內進行的附加收購的一部分。而且它們的營業利潤率較低，影響了該地區的利潤率。我的意思是，我們在這裡也談論了一些小數定律，但很大程度上是我們今年計畫的一部分。

And you're right, what it does is that it gives us even more optionality to have formidable businesses going forward and continuing to drive revenue growth well above what the markets are showing in both of those platforms. So this is very modest in terms of the relative scale to EMEA, but we think the right long-term decision here. And I think it will continue to give us confidence we're going to outperform those markets in EMEA.

你說得對，它的作用是讓我們有更多的選擇，以便未來擁有強大的業務，並繼續推動收入成長，遠高於這兩個平台的市場表現。因此，相對於 EMEA 而言，這個規模非常小，但我們認為這是一個正確的長期決策。我認為這將繼續給予我們信心，讓我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現超越這些市場。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Zac Nagle for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給扎克·納格爾 (Zac Nagle)，讓他發表最後的評論。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining on today's call. We much appreciate all the good questions. We'll be on the road in the coming months, and we look forward to seeing many of you there.

我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們非常感謝大家提出的好問題。我們將在接下來的幾個月繼續前行，我們期待在那裡見到你們。

And obviously, we'll be around over the coming days and weeks to take any investor questions or analyst calls and questions. So we look forward to speaking with you soon. Thanks, and have a great day.

顯然，我們將在未來幾天和幾週內回答任何投資者的問題或分析師的電話和問題。因此，我們期待很快與您交談。謝謝，祝您有愉快的一天。

That concludes our call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。