特靈科技 (TT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Trane Technologies Q1 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Julian, and I will be your operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and Q&A session.

早安.歡迎參加特靈科技 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫朱利安，我將擔任您的電話接線生。電話會議即將開始，首先是發言人的發言和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Zac Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Zac Nagle。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com, where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We are also recording and archiving this call on our website. Please go to slide 2.

謝謝，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 Trane Technologies 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網路直播，您可以在那裡找到隨附的簡報。我們還在我們的網站上錄製並存檔了這通通話。請翻到投影片 2。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release. Joining me on today's call are David Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Christopher Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO.

今天電話會議中所作的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款作出。請參閱我們的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。本簡報還包括非公認會計準則指標，這些指標已在我們的新聞稿所附的財務表中進行了解釋。參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 David Regnery；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Christopher Kuehn。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Zac, and everyone, for joining today's call. Please turn to slide number 3. I'd like to begin with a few minutes on our purpose-driven strategy, which enables our differentiated financial results over time. At Trane Technologies, we continuously innovate for a sustainable world, setting the pace for our industry and driving significant customer demand. Our solutions offer very attractive paybacks, helping customers reduce energy use, emissions and operating costs.

感謝札克和大家參加今天的電話會議。請翻到幻燈片 3。首先，我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們的目標驅動策略，該策略使我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現差異化的財務表現。在特靈科技，我們為了永續發展的世界不斷創新，為我們的產業樹立榜樣，並推動巨大的客戶需求。我們的解決方案提供非常有吸引力的回報，幫助客戶減少能源使用、排放和營運成本。

These long-term partnerships not only fuel our growth, but also make a positive impact on the world. Our leading innovation, proven business operating system and uplifting culture enable us to navigate dynamic environments, outperform the markets, and deliver robust free cash flow.

這些長期合作關係不僅促進了我們的成長，而且對世界產生了積極影響。我們領先的創新、成熟的業務作業系統和積極向上的文化使我們能夠駕馭動態環境、超越市場並實現強勁的自由現金流。

This strong consistent performance positions us to deliver differentiated shareholder value well into the future. Please turn to slide number 4. We delivered strong financial results in the first quarter, continuing our track record of industry-leading revenue and EPS growth.

這種強勁而持續的表現使我們能夠在未來為股東提供差異化的價值。請翻到第 4 張投影片。我們在第一季取得了強勁的財務業績，延續了業界領先的營收和每股盈餘成長記錄。

Our global team achieved 11% organic revenue growth. 130 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and 26% adjusted EPS growth. Bookings were robust, up 4%, with a book-to-bill ratio of 113% for the enterprise and book-to-bill of 100% or more across all segments and businesses.

我們的全球團隊實現了 11% 的有機收入成長。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 130 個基點，調整後的 EPS 成長 26%。訂單量強勁成長，成長了 4%，企業訂單出貨比達到 113%，所有部門和業務的訂單出貨比均達到或超過 100%。

We added about $500 million to our backlog from year-end 2024, including approximately $400 million in our Americas Commercial HVAC business. Our Commercial HVAC and Services businesses have shown outstanding durability and resiliency compounding growth over multiple years.

從 2024 年底開始，我們的積壓訂單增加了約 5 億美元，其中包括美洲商用 HVAC 業務的約 4 億美元。我們的商用暖通空調和服務業務多年來表現出卓越的耐用性和彈性複合成長。

And our project pipelines continue to grow, highlighting sustained opportunities ahead. Our direct sales strategy enables us to capture more than our fair share of these opportunities and consistently outgrow our end markets.

我們的專案儲備持續增加，凸顯了未來持續的機會。我們的直銷策略使我們能夠抓住這些機會中的更多份額，並不斷超越我們的終端市場。

Our Service business represents one-third of our enterprise revenues with a high single-digit compound annual growth rate since 2019 and a low teens CAGR since the inception of Trane Technologies. We pride ourselves on strong execution and delivering for our customers and stakeholders. Despite a dynamic macroeconomic environment, we are confident in our ability to outperform.

我們的服務業務占我們企業收入的三分之一，自 2019 年以來保持較高的個位數複合年增長率，自特靈科技成立以來保持較低的十幾歲複合年增長率。我們為能夠為客戶和利害關係人提供強大的執行力和交付成果而感到自豪。儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿活力，我們仍對自己的表現充滿信心。

Our experienced global teams have effectively managed past challenges, consistently improving our business operating system to be more agile and resilient. This system includes advanced mechanisms for pricing, supply chain management and productivity to manage various inflationary scenarios. We are well prepared to manage the modest cost inflation we expect while minimizing the impact on our customers and driving market growth.

我們經驗豐富的全球團隊有效地應對了過去的挑戰，並不斷改進我們的業務營運系統，使其更加靈活和有彈性。該系統包括定價、供應鏈管理和生產力的先進機制，以管理各種通貨膨脹情境。我們已做好充分準備來管理預期的適度成本通膨，同時最大限度地減少對客戶的影響並推動市場成長。

Looking forward, we're confident in our ability to deliver results towards the higher end of our full year revenue and EPS guidance ranges, which Chris will cover in more detail shortly. Please turn to slide number 5. In our Americas segment, Commercial HVAC bookings set a new quarterly record, surpassing last year's high.

展望未來，我們有信心能夠實現全年收入和每股收益預期範圍的更高水平，Chris 很快就會對此進行更詳細的介紹。請翻到第 5 張投影片。在我們的美洲分部，商用暖通冷氣預訂量創下了新的季度紀錄，超過了去年的最高紀錄。

Revenue growth was robust with mid-teens growth in equipment and low teens in services. Residential growth was also strong, with bookings up mid-teens and revenues up high teens. Transport refrigeration bookings were down low single digits and revenues were up mid-single digits, significantly outperforming end markets, which were down around 25%.

營收成長強勁，設備營收成長 15% 左右，服務收入成長 15% 左右。住宅成長也很強勁，預訂量成長了十幾歲，收入成長了十幾歲。運輸冷藏訂單量下降了低個位數，而收入則成長了中等個位數，明顯優於終端市場（下降了約 25%）。

In our EMEA segment, Commercial HVAC bookings were very strong, up mid-teens. Revenue was up mid-single digits, in line with our expectations for the quarter. Transport bookings were up high single digits. Revenues were up mid-single digits, outperforming end markets, which were down mid-single digits. In Asia Pacific, our team showed resilience with balanced results between China and the rest of Asia.

在我們的 EMEA 地區，商用 HVAC 的預訂量非常強勁，達到了十幾歲的水平。營收成長了中等個位數，符合我們對本季的預期。交通預訂量增加了個位數。收入成長了中等個位數，優於終端市場，後者的收入下降了中等個位數。在亞太地區，我們的團隊表現出韌性，在中國和亞洲其他地區之間取得了均衡的成績。

In the rest of Asia, bookings and revenues were strong, up double digits and low 20s, respectively. In China, the market remains challenging, with bookings and revenues down low 30s and high 20s, respectively, against tough prior year comps of approximately plus 20% for both. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

在亞洲其他地區，預訂量和收入表現強勁，分別成長兩位數和20%出頭。在中國，市場依然充滿挑戰，預訂量和收入分別下降了 30% 和 20% 左右，而去年同期則均成長了約 20%。現在我想把電話轉給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 6. This slide highlights our strong first quarter performance. Organic revenues up 11%, adjusted EBITDA margins up 130 basis points and adjusted EPS up 26%. We delivered robust organic revenue growth in both equipment and services.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 6 張投影片。這張投影片重點介紹了我們第一季的強勁表現。有機收入成長 11%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 130 個基點，調整後 EPS 成長 26%。我們在設備和服務方面都實現了強勁的有機收入成長。

Our high-performance flywheel, fueled by relentless innovation continues to drive top line growth, margin expansion and EPS growth. Please turn to slide number 7. At the enterprise level, we delivered strong volume growth, positive price realization and productivity gains that offset inflation and high levels of business reinvestment.

我們的高性能飛輪在不斷創新的推動下繼續推動營收成長、利潤率擴大和每股收益成長。請翻到第 7 張投影片。在企業層面，我們實現了強勁的銷售成長、積極的價格實現和生產力提高，抵消了通貨膨脹和高水準的業務再投資。

Our Americas segment delivered revenue growth across all businesses. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 170 basis points, driven by volume growth, productivity and price realization. In EMEA, revenues increased in each business, though adjusted EBITDA margin declined by 190 basis points due to high business reinvestment during the shoulder season.

我們的美洲分部所有業務均實現了收入成長。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 170 個基點，這得益於銷售成長、生產力提高和價格實現。在 EMEA 地區，各項業務的收入均有所增加，但由於平季期間業務再投資較高，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 190 個基點。

Results met our expectations and we're confident in strong margin performance for 2025. In Asia Pacific, despite a modest revenue decline, the team delivered 90 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion through strong productivity and cost management. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

結果符合我們的預期，我們對 2025 年強勁的利潤表現充滿信心。在亞太地區，儘管收入略有下降，但該團隊透過強大的生產力和成本管理實現了調整後 EBITDA 利潤率 90 個基點的成長。現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 8. Overall, our market outlook remains largely unchanged from our fourth-quarter earnings call in January. Our team remains agile to drive outperformance in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. In the Americas, we had an excellent start to the year across our businesses, providing strong momentum.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第 8 張投影片。整體而言，我們的市場前景與 1 月第四季財報電話會議相比基本保持不變。我們的團隊保持敏捷，在動態的宏觀經濟環境中取得優異表現。在美洲，我們各項業務今年開局良好，發展動能強勁。

Our outlook for Commercial HVAC remains unchanged, supported by strong bookings, revenues and backlog build in the first quarter. Our world-class direct sales force and leading innovation are powerful competitive advantages, particularly in large complex projects requiring bespoke applied solutions. We have a proven track record of rapidly compounding growth here with two-year stacked revenue growth of approximately 90%, three-year stack revenue growth of approximately 130% and four-year stack revenue growth of approximately 200% in the applied equipment space.

受第一季強勁的預訂量、收入和積壓訂單的支持，我們對商用暖通空調的展望保持不變。我們世界一流的直銷隊伍和領先的創新是我們強大的競爭優勢，特別是在需要客製化應用解決方案的大型複雜專案中。我們在應用設備領域擁有快速複合成長的良好記錄，兩年疊加收入成長約 90%，三年疊加收入成長約 130%，四年疊加收入成長約 200%。

For 2025, we're targeting total Americas Commercial HVAC three-year stack revenue growth of approximately 50%, inclusive of both equipment and services. To meet this target, we expect to deliver revenue growth of high single digits to 10% in 2025, and we're on pace to meet or exceed this target.

到 2025 年，我們的目標是美洲商用 HVAC 三年總收入成長約 50%，包括設備和服務。為了實現這一目標，我們預計到 2025 年收入將實現高個位數增長至 10%，並且我們正在按計劃達到或超過這一目標。

In Residential, our outlook is also unchanged. We expect residential markets to return to a GDP plus framework in 2025. Our strong first quarter results suggest we did not see a dip in volume due to the 2024 prebuy as anticipated, while channel inventories are modestly elevated by an estimated $75 million to $100 million, we expect them to normalize in 2025, aligning with our GDP+ outlook. For Transport, we anticipate a strong market rebound in 2026 and beyond. For 2025, ACT has revised their trailer outlook from down low single digits to down about 15%, while our internal model suggest a mid-20s trailer market decline.

在住宅領域，我們的展望也沒有改變。我們預計住宅市場將在 2025 年恢復到 GDP 加框架。我們強勁的第一季業績表明，我們並未像預期的那樣因 2024 年預購而看到銷量下降，而渠道庫存則小幅上漲，預計為 7500 萬至 1 億美元，我們預計它們將在 2025 年恢復正常，與我們的 GDP+ 展望一致。對於運輸業，我們預計 2026 年及以後市場將強勁反彈。對於 2025 年，ACT 已將其拖車市場前景從個位數下降修正為下降約 15%，而我們的內部模型則表明拖車市場將下滑 20% 左右。

For prudency, we've incorporated the mid-20s decline into our guidance. Translating the trailer market forecast to the overall transport market forecast, we anticipate the weighted average market to be down about 20% for the year, and we expect to outperform.

為了謹慎起見，我們將 1920 年代中期的下降納入了我們的指導中。將拖車市場預測轉化為整體運輸市場預測，我們預計今年加權平均市場將下降約 20%，我們預計表現會優於整體運輸市場。

In EMEA, we see continued strength in Commercial HVAC in 2025 driven by strong execution in core markets and tailwinds from thermal management systems, services and key growth verticals. Expectations for EMEA transport markets are now expected to be down low single digits in 2025, and we expect to outperform. In Asia, our outlook for the year remains unchanged. We anticipate a flat market overall, balanced between challenging conditions in China and growth opportunities in the rest of Asia.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計 2025 年商用暖通空調將持續保持強勁勢頭，這得益於核心市場的強勁執行力以及熱管理系統、服務和關鍵成長垂直領域的推動。目前預計 2025 年 EMEA 運輸市場的成長率將下降個位數，而我們預計該市場將表現出色。在亞洲，我們對今年的展望保持不變。我們預計整體市場將保持平穩，在中國的挑戰性環境和亞洲其他地區的成長機會之間取得平衡。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉回給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 9. Our 2025 guidance aligns with the market outlook Dave discussed, incorporating our value creation flywheel focused on innovation, market outgrowth, healthy leverage and strong free cash flow. At this early stage in the year, we are maintaining our prior guidance ranges of 7% to 8% organic revenue growth and $12.70 to $12.90 adjusted earnings per share and expect to perform towards the high end of these ranges.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 9 張投影片。我們的 2025 年指引與 Dave 討論的市場前景一致，包含了我們專注於創新、市場成長、健康槓桿和強勁自由現金流的價值創造飛輪。在今年年初階段，我們維持先前的指導範圍，即有機收入增長 7% 至 8%，調整後每股收益 12.70 美元至 12.90 美元，並預計業績將達到這些範圍的高端。

Given the US dollar softening through the end of the first quarter, we anticipate negative 50 basis points of FX impact to revenues, an improvement from negative 100 basis points previously. Recent bolt-on acquisitions have added approximately 50 basis points to our revenue growth from M&A bringing the total to about 100 basis points for the year, up from 50 basis points prior.

鑑於第一季末美元走弱，我們預期外匯對營收的影響將為負 50 個基點，較先前的負 100 個基點有所改善。最近的附加收購為我們的併購收入成長增加了約 50 個基點，使全年總收入成長達到約 100 個基點，高於先前的 50 個基點。

The net EPS impact of FX and M&A remains unchanged at minus $0.20 for the year. We expect to manage and mitigate all tariff impacts that are now in place through proactive measures, including pricing. We estimate the cost impact in 2025 to be approximately $250 million to $275 million.

外匯和併購對每股淨額的影響全年保持不變，為負 0.20 美元。我們希望透過包括定價在內的積極措施來管理和減輕目前所有關稅的影響。我們估計 2025 年的成本影響約為 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元。

We will take surgical pricing actions to offset tariff impact dollar for dollar, aiming to fully mitigate these costs while minimizing the impact on our customers. Net tariff costs are included in our EPS guidance for the year and are expected to have zero impact. Given the dynamic tariff environment, it's premature to build specific pricing into our revenue guidance at this stage.

我們將採取精準的定價措施來抵銷關稅的影響，旨在完全減輕這些成本，同時最大限度地減少對客戶的影響。淨關稅成本已包含在我們今年的每股盈餘預測中，預計不會產生任何影響。鑑於動態關稅環境，現階段將具體定價納入我們的收入指引還為時過早。

We will provide updates as more information becomes available. We continue to target organic leverage of 25% or higher, consistent with our long-term goals and anticipate another year of 100% or greater free cash flow conversion in 2025.

一旦有更多資訊可用，我們將提供更新。我們繼續將有機槓桿率定為 25% 或更高，這與我們的長期目標一致，並預計 2025 年自由現金流轉換率將再達到 100% 或更高。

For the second quarter, we expect approximately 8% organic revenue growth and approximately $3.75 in adjusted EPS. We do not anticipate a material impact from tariffs that are now in place in the second quarter. For additional details related to our guidance, please refer to slide 16.

對於第二季度，我們預計有機收入將成長約 8%，調整後每股收益約 3.75 美元。我們預計現行的關稅不會對第二季產生重大影響。有關我們指導的更多詳細信息，請參閱幻燈片 16。

Please turn to slide number 10. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy focused on deploying excess cash to maximize shareholder returns. First, we strengthened our core business through relentless reinvestment.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。我們仍然致力於平衡的資本配置策略，專注於部署過剩現金以最大化股東回報。首先，我們透過不懈的再投資加強了我們的核心業務。

Second, we maintain a strong balance sheet to ensure flexibility as markets evolve. Third, we expect to deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our approach includes strategic M&A to enhance long-term returns and share repurchases when the stock trades below intrinsic value. Please turn to slide number 11.

其次，我們維持強勁的資產負債表，以確保市場發展過程中的彈性。第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移將部署100％的過剩現金。我們的方法包括策略性併購以提高長期回報，以及在股票交易價格低於內在價值時進行股票回購。請翻到第 11 張投影片。

In the first quarter, we deployed approximately $775 million through our balanced capital allocation strategy with $210 million to dividends, $15 million to M&A and $550 million to share repurchases. These figures exclude $260 million from M&A and $100 million from share repurchases made early in the quarter, which were included in our fiscal year 2024 capital deployment targets as discussed during our fourth quarter earnings call.

第一季度，我們透過平衡資本配置策略部署了約 7.75 億美元，其中 2.1 億美元用於股息，1,500 萬美元用於併購，5.5 億美元用於股票回購。這些數字不包括本季初來自併購的 2.6 億美元和來自股票回購的 1 億美元，這些資金已包含在我們第四季度收益電話會議上討論的 2024 財年資本部署目標中。

In February, our Board of Directors approved a dividend raise of 12% and that became effective with the first quarter payment. Since the launch of Trane Technologies, the dividend has grown by nearly 80%. We opportunistically accelerated share repurchases in the first quarter to capitalize on periods of acute share price dislocation.

2 月份，我們的董事會批准將股息提高 12%，並從第一季的支付開始生效。自特靈科技成立以來，股息已成長近80%。我們在第一季抓住機會加快了股票回購，以利用股價嚴重混亂的時期。

We have $5.6 billion remaining under repurchase authorizations, providing us with significant flexibility moving forward. Our M&A pipeline remains active, and we will continue to be disciplined in our approach. Overall, our strong free cash flow, liquidity, balance sheet and substantial share repurchase authorization offer excellent capital allocation optionality as we move forward. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

我們還有 56 億美元的回購授權，為我們未來的發展提供了極大的靈活性。我們的併購管道仍然活躍，我們將繼續嚴謹地行事。總體而言，我們強勁的自由現金流、流動性、資產負債表和大量的股票回購授權為我們未來的發展提供了極佳的資本配置選擇。現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 13. We've covered transport in previous slides, so I'll keep this brief. The Americas transport refrigeration markets have been volatile, but the long-term outlook remains strong. For 2026 and 2027, ACT projects a strong rebound with over 20% growth each year.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第 13 張投影片。我們在前面的幻燈片中已經討論過交通問題，所以我就簡短地講一下。美洲運輸冷藏市場一直動盪，但長期前景依然強勁。預計 2026 年和 2027 年 ACT 將出現強勁反彈，每年成長率超過 20%。

We're managing well through the downside. We continue to invest in innovation, and we are excited to add another significant growth driver to our enterprise portfolio in 2026 and beyond. Please go to slide number 14. In summary, we are poised to achieve leading performance and deliver outstanding shareholder returns in 2025 and beyond.

我們正在很好地應對不利因素。我們將繼續投資於創新，並很高興在 2026 年及以後為我們的企業組合增添另一個重要的成長動力。請翻到第 14 張投影片。總而言之，我們準備在 2025 年及以後實現領先業績並為股東帶來優異的回報。

Our vibrant culture cutting-edge innovation, robust business operating system and proven track record, differentiate Trane Technologies in the market.

我們充滿活力的文化、尖端的創新、強大的商業作業系統和良好的業績記錄，使特靈科技在市場上脫穎而出。

I'm proud of our team's consistent growth highlighted by our strong results in the first quarter and over time. I firmly believe our best days are yet to come. And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

我為我們團隊的持續成長感到自豪，這體現在我們第一季以及一段時間內的強勁業績上。我堅信我們最好的日子尚未到來。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指示）

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just wanted to start off with the Commercial HVAC market and I suppose the Americas, in particular, you mentioned sort of a growing pipeline, but just wanted to understand if there's been any sort of shift in specific verticals that you've seen in recent months in terms of demand or orders? And also, I realize there's different definitions to sort of light commercial versus applied, but some of the light commercial data has not been so good the last six months. Just wondered sort of have you seen that? Are you concerned about that as it pertains to the applied read across after a lag. Any color on that, please?

嗨，早安。也許只是想從商用暖通空調市場開始，我想特別是美洲，您提到了一種不斷增長的管道，但只是想了解最近幾個月在需求或訂單方面您是否看到特定垂直領域發生了任何變化？而且，我意識到輕型商用和應用的定義不同，但過去六個月的一些輕型商用數據並不那麼好。只是想知道您是否見過這個？您是否擔心這涉及到滯後後的應用程式讀取。請問那上面有什麼顏色嗎？

Hey, Julian, how are you doing? This is Dave. I'll start. Look, as far as Commercial HVAC goes in the Americas, it was another very strong quarter for us. In fact, order rates were an all-time record. We surpassed last year's record this quarter.

嘿，朱利安，你好嗎？這是戴夫。我先開始。就美洲的商用暖通空調而言，這對我們來說又是一個非常強勁的季度。事實上，訂單率創下了歷史新高。本季我們超過了去年的記錄。

So it's -- and it continues to be broad-based strength we're seeing which is very encouraging. Sure, we're very strong in data centers. We're very strong in healthcare, very strong in education, especially in higher ed, but it was broad-based. Majority of our verticals had positive growth in the quarter, which is always reassuring to us. And the pipeline that I was referring to during our prepared remarks, remains very, very strong, and that's what our sales teams are working on today and we have visibility of that vis-a-vis the systems that we have.

所以，我們看到它繼續呈現廣泛優勢，這是非常令人鼓舞的。當然，我們在資料中心方面非常強大。我們在醫療保健領域非常強大，在教育領域非常強大，特別是在高等教育領域，但它的基礎是廣泛的。本季度，我們的大多數垂直行業都實現了正增長，這對我們來說總是令人欣慰的。我在準備好的發言中提到的管道仍然非常非常強大，這就是我們的銷售團隊今天正在努力的方向，我們可以透過我們現有的系統來了解這一點。

So look, it's very positive in the Americas right now, and we continue be very, very robust on the team there. So -- and also our services business to continue to do very well, which is, again, a great tailwind for our business. So Chris, I'll let you talk a little bit about unitary and applied.

所以看起來，目前美洲的情況非常積極，我們將繼續在那裡組建非常強大的團隊。因此，我們的服務業務也將繼續表現良好，這對我們的業務來說又是一個巨大的推動力。克里斯，我讓你稍微談談單一和應用。

Yeah, hey, good morning, Julian. In the first quarter and also as we're thinking about guidance for the full year, Applied was stronger than unitary as expected. And given the broad base, the nature of how we think about the verticals that we support, different applications, support different verticals with different strength and weakness there.

是的，嘿，早上好，朱利安。在第一季以及我們在考慮全年業績指引時，應用材料的表現正如預期的那樣強於單一市場。考慮到廣泛的基礎，我們如何看待我們所支持的垂直行業，不同的應用程序，支援具有不同優勢和劣勢的不同垂直行業。

But as we're thinking about the unitary markets for the year, we really don't expect much growth in those markets this year because the markets be flat to down, yes. We've got that baked into our guidance, but we really see this year that applied markets will be stronger than unitary markets this year.

但當我們考慮今年的單一市場時，我們確實不認為今年這些市場會有太大的成長，因為市場會持平甚至下滑，是的。我們已經將其納入我們的指導中，但我們確實看到今年應用市場將比單一市場更強勁。

That's very helpful. And then just my follow-up would be around the price actions to offset tariff gross headwinds. Maybe just kind of flesh those out a little bit. And in the resi market, specifically, I think you're very clear that there was no pre-buy impact evident in Q1 despite a lot of the concerns out there the last year or so. How are you thinking about the price increases there sort of influencing volume demand in res?

這非常有幫助。然後我的後續行動將圍繞價格行動來抵消關稅總阻力。也許只是稍微充實一下這些內容。具體來說，在住宅市場，我想您非常清楚，儘管去年左右存在許多擔憂，但第一季並沒有明顯的預購影響。您認為那裡的價格上漲會對資源需求量產生什麼影響？

Yeah. I'll start with pricing in general, Julian. We started the year with our normal level of price increase that we go into any year with. Think of that in that December January time frame and really leveraging our business operating system running scenarios around the tariff environment. I think about all the scenarios you run at the beginning of the year when you have 12 months in front of you.

是的。我先從一般定價開始，朱利安。今年年初，我們的價格漲幅與往年一樣正常。想想在 12 月 1 月的時間範圍內，真正利用我們的業務操作系統運行圍繞關稅環境的場景。我想到了當你面臨 12 個月時，在年初你會遇到的所有情況。

And I think we ran as many scenarios, if not more, in the April time frame with eight months left in the year to go. So I think we really try to triangulate multiple ways, multiple scenarios here. Really pressure testing what we thought the guidance was and what we want it to be today, which we reiterated guidance, and we have a lot of confidence being at the high end of that guide.

我認為，在四月這個時間段內，我們模擬了同樣多的場景，甚至更多，而今年還剩下八個月的時間。所以我認為我們確實嘗試在這裡對多種方式、多種場景進行三角測量。真正對我們所認為的指導以及我們今天想要的指導進行壓力測試，我們重申了指導，並且我們對處於該指導的高端充滿信心。

So pricing, look, we're remaining nimble here in this environment. The first thing is how do we offset the cost of tariffs. We've identified an estimated $250 million to $275 million of tariff cost this year. It's a number we're working down. That's the first step is reduce the impact to customers. But to the extent that there's a net tariff cost, call it $100 we're going to have to put $100 of price in place. So between February through April, we've implemented price increases and or surcharges.

所以定價，你看，我們在這種環境下保持靈活。首先，我們如何抵銷關稅成本。我們估計今年的關稅成本為 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元。我們正在努力減少這個數字。這是減少對客戶影響的第一步。但就淨關稅成本而言，假設它是 100 美元，我們必須制定 100 美元的價格。因此，從二月到四月，我們實施了價格上漲或附加費。

Think of them as up to if it's a price increase, which gives us a lot of flexibility to be very surgical in how we're thinking about a price increase. And then a surcharge could be in place, but then also easily removed as we see changes possibly happening here in the tariff environment. So that's how we're looking at it for this year. We've had a lot of experience in this space over the last several years. Think about 2022 with a very high inflationary environment with supply chain challenges.

把它們想像成價格上漲，這給了我們很大的彈性，讓我們能夠非常精準地考慮價格上漲。然後可能會徵收附加費，但隨著我們看到關稅環境可能發生變化，附加費也很容易取消。這就是我們對今年的看法。過去幾年我們在這個領域累積了豐富的經驗。想像 2022 年，通膨環境非常高，供應鏈面臨挑戰。

We had to deliver 10 points of price in 2022. We delivered about 5 points of price in 2023. So we're really leveraging the business operating system here and confident in our ability to really manage tariffs based on what we know today.

我們必須在 2022 年實現 10 個點的價格提升。我們在 2023 年實現了約 5 個點的價格上漲。因此，我們真正利用了這裡的業務作業系統，並且對我們根據目前所知真正管理關稅的能力充滿信心。

Yeah. On resi, this is Dave, Julian. Look, the team performed very well in Q1. We're very encouraged with the start to the year. But I would remind everyone, it is just the first quarter, number one. On the prebuy question, yeah, we did not see an impact in Q1. And I said in the fourth quarter call, it's always hard to estimate what the pre-buy is because customers don't tell us or they don't have a box to check to say, hey, this is a pre-buy offer.

是的。在 resi 上，這是 Dave，Julian。看，球隊在第一季表現非常出色。我們對今年的開始感到非常鼓舞。但我要提醒大家，這只是第一季度，第一。關於預購問題，是的，我們在第一季沒有看到影響。我在第四季度電話會議上說過，很難估計預購金額，因為客戶沒有告訴我們，或者他們沒有可以勾選的方框來表示「嘿，這是一個預購優惠」。

But we did not see it. But that said, we do have elevated inventory. We're estimating that to be right around the same amount that we had to prebuy or what we thought the prebuy was in the fourth quarter in that $75 million to $100 million.

但我們沒看到。但話雖如此，我們的庫存確實增加了。我們估計這個金額與我們預購的金額差不多，或與我們認為的第四季預購金額 7,500 萬到 1 億美元差不多。

So inventories are a bit higher than we would normally see this time. Could it be our IWD just stocking up for the season? Yeah. We'll see how that plays out. But we do anticipate that burning through as the year progresses. And for the full year, we still have our resi business in the mid-single-digit range, which is back to our GDP plus guideline.

因此，這次庫存比我們通常看到的要高一些。難道我們的國際婦女節只是為了這個季節而儲備物資嗎？是的。我們將拭目以待結果如何。但我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，這個數字將會逐漸消失。就全年而言，我們的住宅業務仍處於中等個位數範圍內，這已恢復到我們的 GDP 加指導方針。

That's great. Thank you.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you, I appreciate the question. I just wanted to follow up on the Americas Commercial HVAC demand. Obviously, record orders in Q1 suggest things are still quite good. But I guess the question is, have customer conversations changed at all since the start of the year. In the channel, we're hearing more about some projects are moving slower just due to the uncertainty around cost. Are you feeling any of that in the business?

謝謝，我很感謝你的提問。我只是想跟進美洲商業暖通空調的需求。顯然，第一季創紀錄的訂單表明情況仍然相當良好。但我想問題是，自今年年初以來，客戶對話是否發生了變化。在管道中，我們聽到更多關於一些專案進展緩慢的消息，只是因為成本的不確定性。您在做生意時有這種感覺嗎？

I'm just wondering if there's a risk that maybe it could drive some elongation in converting the pipeline to orders. Thank you.

我只是想知道是否有風險，這可能會導致管道轉換為訂單的時間延長。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a great question, Chris. We haven't seen that. And I'm sure there's pockets of it with a particular customer, but we certainly haven't seen anything widespread to that level. I would tell you that in our applied systems, we have really, really strong paybacks for these projects. So we're going to go in with a customer.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。我們還沒見過這種情況。我確信某個特定客戶確實存在這種情況，但我們肯定沒有看到任何大規模的此類事件。我想告訴你，在我們的應用系統中，這些項目獲得了非常非常豐厚的回報。所以我們要跟客戶一起進去。

We're going to lead with our payback. We're going to talk about the carbon footprint, they can also reduce. But we're always going to start with the payback. And because these are so attractive and because there's so much waste that's happening in buildings today with energy, there's just an immense opportunity in the future.

我們將以回報為先。我們將要討論碳足跡，他們也可以減少。但我們總是從回報開始。由於這些技術非常有吸引力，而且當今建築物在使用能源時會產生大量浪費，因此未來存在著巨大的機會。

So look, we're very, very bullish on the future, specifically in our Commercial HVAC businesses really globally. And the first quarter, off to a great start for the year. So we're very confident in our full year guidance.

所以，我們對未來非常非常樂觀，特別是對全球範圍內的商業暖通空調業務。今年第一季開局良好。因此，我們對全年業績指引非常有信心。

Thank you, I appreciate that. And then if we kind of look at Trane versus the market, you've outgrown as far back as we have data. I mean, if you had to rank the reasons why Trane out grows, is that the efficiency of the equipment? Is it the breadth or the strength of the service offering? Is it the direct sales force and just the connectivity you have? Like how would you rank those three in terms of drivers of the company's outgrowth? Thank you.

謝謝，我很感激。然後，如果我們將 Trane 與市場進行比較，就會發現，就我們掌握的數據而言，你們已經超越了市場。我的意思是，如果必須對 Trane 超越競爭對手的原因進行排序，那麼是設備的效率嗎？是服務範圍的廣度還是強度？是直接銷售團隊和您擁有的連結嗎？那麼，您如何根據公司發展的驅動力對這三者進行排名？謝謝。

No, it would be fair for me to race, but I would just tell you it's a system of things that makes us a great company. And you hit on a few of them, certainly a direct sales force being close to your customer, I'd look at our operating system and it's how we operate every day within our company and how we share best practices on a global basis, how we innovate our products, the processes that we use.

不，參加比賽對我來說是公平的，但我只想告訴你，這是一個讓我們成為偉大公司的體系。您提到了其中的幾個，當然直銷隊伍要貼近您的客戶，我會看看我們的操作系統，它是我們公司每天的運作方式，我們如何在全球範圍內分享最佳實踐，我們如何創新我們的產品，我們使用的流程。

It's not about the dollars you invest in the innovation, it's the throughput you get. And all those are part of our business operating system. If I had to rank one, Chris, what I would say differentiates us is our culture, and it's this culture around we can.

重要的不是你在創新上投入了多少資金，而是你所獲得的產出。所有這些都是我們業務作業系統的一部分。如果我必須選出一個，克里斯，我想說我們的不同之處在於我們的文化，而這正是我們能夠做到的。

We -- our purpose is to challenge what's possible and innovate for a sustainable world. We have a culture that I like to say we work towards yes. And we don't shy away from problems because we know if we could solve the problems, that's where we're going to get the growth opportunities from. So it's a system of things that makes us a great company. And I'm proud to be the CEO, and I'm certainly very proud of the results that we've been able to demonstrate now for a number of years and outperforming the end models.

我們的目標是挑戰一切可能，並為永續發展的世界不斷創新。我想說，我們有一種為之努力的文化。我們不會迴避問題，因為我們知道，如果我們能夠解決問題，我們就會獲得成長機會。所以，正是這個體系讓我們成為了一家偉大的公司。我很自豪能夠擔任首席執行官，而且我當然對我們多年來所取得的成果以及超越最終模型的表現感到非常自豪。

Thank you, I appreciate that.

謝謝，我很感激。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

Great. Thanks, morning everybody. So I just wanted to follow up, if I could, on just underlying demand. I wanted to understand if the growth in revenue and orders are just more concentrated in specific verticals than before? I know you -- obviously, the sales force can adapt to the demand environment, but wondering if any of the growth or what you're seeing is attributable to a more concentrated sample of end markets versus kind of more broad-based before or there's nothing there?

偉大的。謝謝大家早安。因此，如果可以的話，我只是想跟進潛在的需求。我想了解收入和訂單的成長是否比以前更集中在特定的垂直領域？我知道你——顯然，銷售人員可以適應需求環境，但想知道你所看到的增長是否歸因於更集中的終端市場樣本，而不是之前的更廣泛的樣本，或者那裡什麼都沒有？

Yeah, Amit, good question. I mean, look, we track 14 different verticals in the at least in the Americas, and I'll tell you, it's pretty broad-based. The majority of our verticals had growth, which is a great sign. We're not overly concentrated in any one vertical. There are some verticals right now that are very strong. And we all know data centers are strong. We're a leading provider in that vertical. We'll be a leading provider in that vertical well into the future.

是的，阿米特，這個問題問得好。我的意思是，你看，我們至少在美洲追蹤了 14 個不同的垂直產業，而且我會告訴你，它的基礎相當廣泛。我們的大部分垂直行業都實現了成長，這是一個好兆頭。我們不會過度集中於任何一個垂直領域。目前，有些垂直產業非常強勁。我們都知道資料中心非常強大。我們是該垂直領域的領先供應商。未來，我們將成為該垂直領域的領先供應商。

Health care was strong, which is -- that was a nice sign. Higher ed continues to be strong. So look, I could go through vertical by vertical, but I would tell you that it's broad-based and you would expect that with the breadth of our portfolio and with the technical aptitude of our account managers.

醫療保健狀況良好，這是一個好兆頭。高等教育持續強勁。所以看，我可以逐一垂直地進行介紹，但我會告訴你，它的基礎是廣泛的，而且你會期望它具有我們投資組合的廣度和我們客戶經理的技術能力。

Okay. That's very helpful and clear. And then maybe one for Chris, if I could. If I look at the full year guidance, I guess the revenue guidance, it kind of implies maybe a more modest sequential uptick in revenue, 1H to 2H versus what's existed over the last couple of years. Obviously, we're entering the base is very much higher, and we're entering a more normalized environment.

好的。這非常有幫助，而且很清晰。如果可以的話，也許我會給克里斯一個。如果我看一下全年指引，我想收入指引可能意味著與過去幾年相比，上半年到下半年的收入可能會出現更溫和的連續成長。顯然，我們進入的基數要高得多，而且我們正在進入一個更正常化的環境。

But I was wondering is that the right way to think about just we're entering a more normalized growth environment starting the back half? Or maybe is there some conservatism in there that obviously is prudent given all the uncertainty we're seeing today?

但我想知道，從下半年開始，我們就進入了一個更正常化的成長環境，這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者，考慮到我們今天看到的所有不確定性，其中是否存在某種顯然是謹慎的保守主義？

Hey, good morning, Amit, I appreciate the question. Yeah, I think, look, we like providing guidance that we have the ability to meet or exceed on a full year basis or quarterly basis. You're right with that math in terms of what the second half implies in terms of revenue growth. But we're just one quarter into the year. We were just starting the cooling season in the northern hemisphere, and we'll see how things translate through the balance of the second quarter.

嘿，早安，阿米特，我很感謝你的提問。是的，我認為，我們喜歡提供我們有能力在全年或季度內達到或超過的指導。就下半年的收入成長而言，你的計算是正確的。但今年才剛過去一個季度。北半球的寒冷季節才剛開始，我們將觀察第二季度的情況如何。

And we'll update everyone when we have our second quarter call. I think there is uncertainty out there in various markets, and we thought it was very prudent for us to maintain the guidance range that we provided in January, but also call that we're very confident in being at the high end of that range.

我們將在第二季電話會議時向大家通報最新情況。我認為各個市場都存在不確定性，我們認為維持我們在一月份提供的指導範圍是非常謹慎的，但我們也非常有信心處於該範圍的高端。

So let's give it another quarter, and we'll dial in what we see the second half of the year to be with any luck, there's a bit more certainty and less variability about what's happening in markets, but very confident on delivering our guidance as we've described for 2025.

因此，讓我們再等一個季度，然後我們就能預測下半年的情況了。如果一切順利的話，市場將更加確定，變化性更小，但我們對實現 2025 年的預期非常有信心。

Okay, very good, thank you guys, appreciate it.

好的，非常好，謝謝大家，感激不盡。

Thanks I appreciate it.

謝謝，我很感激。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I would echo the congratulations on these big numbers, but also just it looks like you cut your prepared remarks down pretty sizably in the quarter as well, which I think allows for more Q&A. It's helpful for all of us. So thanks for that. I guess, I just want to ask kind of a follow-up on the tariff question. I hate to beat this dead horse.

我要對這些大數字表示祝賀，但看起來您在本季度也大幅減少了準備好的發言，我認為這會給您更多的問答時間。這對我們所有人都有幫助。所以謝謝你。我想我只是想就關稅問題進行一些後續詢問。我不想再打這個無用之人了。

But if you guys have this massive backlog in applied, it's -- are your contracts flexible enough to allow surcharges or other mitigation? How does that kind of logistically work or do you have to go out one customer at a time and have that conversation?

但是，如果你們有這麼多積壓的應用，那麼——你們的合約是否足夠靈活，可以允許附加費或其他緩解措施？這種後勤工作是如何進行的，或者你必須一次出去與一位顧客交談？

Hey Scott, it's Chris. There are contracts in the applied space where there are tariff protections and or escalation features, right? It's not the majority, but I would say that it's on certain larger projects that is a construct of the contract. The key for us, though, is leveraging business operating system to reduce the dollar impact.

嘿，史考特，我是克里斯。應用領域中存在具有關稅保護和/或升級功能的合同，對嗎？這不是大多數，但我想說，在某些較大的項目上，這是合約的構造。然而，對我們來說，關鍵是利用業務作業系統來減少美元的影響。

And we're driving that with suppliers today, our partners today in terms of how you reduce the dollar impact, looking at source of supply. We're looking at trade routes as well to lessen the dollar impact here. And if we can get the dollar impact down, that means less of an impact to pricing that we have to pass through. And we have a lot of confidence we can pass through price.

今天，我們正在與供應商和合作夥伴一起推動這項進程，研究如何減少美元影響，並專注於供應來源。我們也在研究貿易路線，以減輕美元的影響。如果我們能夠降低美元的影響，那就意味著我們必須承受的定價影響也會更小。我們非常有信心能夠傳遞價格訊息。

But the starting point is get the cost down, and we're actively doing that today. So a lot of confidence we've got on delivering the full year guide growth in the applied space. But I would tell you that we're working in some angles at this point.

但起點是降低成本，我們今天正在積極地這樣做。因此，我們對實現應用領域全年成長充滿信心。但我想告訴你，我們目前正在從某些角度進行工作。

Yes, Scott, this is Dave. First of all, thanks for you notice in the prepared remarks are down. It's a little bit of an internal debate we have. But the other thing -- the only point I would make to Chris, is this in region for region manufacturing strategy that we've had now for really a greater than a decade it is a competitive advantage for us.

是的，斯科特，這是戴夫。首先，感謝您注意到準備好的評論已經記下來了。這是我們之間的一點內部爭論。但另一件事——我唯一想向克里斯指出的是，這種區域性製造策略我們已經實施了十多年，這對我們來說是一種競爭優勢。

And because we have the majority of our supply chain that follows that, that's why you're seeing us kind of working through this tariff problems in a different way. But as Chris said, look, we're first going to try to mitigate it. If we can't mitigate it, we'll go dollar for dollar on the pricing. And I think it's also very important to note that we're not going to make tariffs of profit in. We're not going to do that to customers. We think that's a very bad long-term decision. And so if we have to pay, we'll pass it on, but we're going to do everything we can to try to mitigate it first.

因為我們的大部分供應鏈都遵循這項原則，所以你會看到我們以不同的方式解決關稅問題。但正如克里斯所說，看，我們首先要嘗試緩解它。如果我們無法緩解這種情況，我們將對定價進行一比一的調整。我認為還需要注意的是，我們不會透過徵收關稅來獲取利潤。我們不會對顧客這樣做。我們認為這是一個非常糟糕的長期決定。因此，如果我們必須付款，我們會將其轉嫁，但我們會盡一切努力首先減輕其影響。

Yeah, that makes sense. Dave, changing topics a little bit. China, it's not a surprise. I mean, sequentially, it's actually a little bit -- seems a little bit better on overall. But how has the market respond? I mean you guys have made a pretty strong move there and not taking risky projects and stuff. But how has the market responded? Have others come in and been rational? Or have folks come in and kind of fill that white space with a rational behavior?

是的，這很有道理。戴夫，稍微改變一下話題。中國，這並不奇怪。我的意思是，按順序來看，它實際上有一點——總體上看起來好一點。但市場反應如何？我的意思是，你們已經採取了相當強硬的舉措，並且不會承擔有風險的項目和事情。但市場反應如何？其他人進來保持理性嗎？或者人們進來並用理性的行為填補這個空白？

Yeah, I mean, look, it's -- we're in our third quarter now. The team is sequentially improving. Some of it's an education process that the team is going through to educate our customers as to the why. And as we do that, they're getting more comfortable with it. So look, China is going to continue to improve at least the credit side that will continue to improve into the future.

是的，我的意思是，看，我們現在已經進入第三季了。球隊正在不斷進步。其中一部分是團隊正在進行的教育過程，目的是讓我們的客戶了解原因。當我們這樣做時，他們就會變得越來越適應。所以看起來，中國將繼續改善至少信貸方面，並且未來將繼續改善。

And I can't say that about the market. There's a challenge right now. We'll see how that plays out. Look, we have a very strong team in Asia and specifically in China. So I have a lot of confidence in them. And if you go back and over the last four years, I think you can see that our team in China has really been able to outperform the market. So a lot of faith in them, and this might take a couple more quarters to work through, but I have a lot of confidence in them. And I do believe it's the right long-term strategy.

但對於市場，我不能這麼說。現在有一個挑戰。我們將拭目以待事情將如何發展。你看，我們在亞洲，特別是在中國，擁有一支非常強大的團隊。所以我對他們很有信心。如果你回顧過去四年，我想你會發現我們在中國的團隊確實能夠超越市場。所以我對他們很有信心，這可能需要幾個季度才能實現，但我對他們很有信心。我確實相信這是正確的長期策略。

Okay, best of luck, Dave. Thank you. See you Chris.

好的，祝你好運，戴夫。謝謝。再見，克里斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, good morning guys, and a nice rest of the year.

嘿，大家早上好，祝大家今年剩餘時間過得愉快。

Thanks, Joe. I appreciate it.

謝謝，喬。我很感激。

Yeah, can we just kind of chat a little bit about the resi strength this quarter? I'm just -- I'm curious you're not seeing any prebuy. It seems like the transition to 454B has already started and is going well. I'm just wondering, like is there a way to parse out like how much of the -- either the organic growth or the bookings growth that you saw this quarter was already 454B product versus the 410A that you're holding in inventory?

是的，我們可以稍微聊一下本季的抵抗力嗎？我只是——我很好奇你沒有看到任何預購。看起來向 454B 的過渡已經開始並且進展順利。我只是想知道，有沒有辦法分析出本季您看到的有機成長或預訂量成長中有多少已經是 454B 產品，而您庫存中是 410A？

Yeah. Look, I can tell you what we sold. I don't know if the sell-through to the IWD we don't get in that level of detail. But what we sold, we sold probably maybe close to 80% was 454B. And look, the team executed very well.

是的。聽著，我可以告訴你我們賣了什麼。我不知道我們是否沒有獲得國際婦女節的詳細銷售情況。但我們銷售的，大概接近 80% 是 454B。看看，這個團隊表現得非常好。

It's always -- it's difficult for me to say we didn't see a pre-buy. Maybe we did see a pre-buy, maybe it's still in the channel because we know the channel is a little bit elevated versus what we would normally see. But again, we've taken that burn down that will occur as we get through peak into our guidance, which, again, just another way that we stress tested our guidance for the year and gives us a lot of confidence that we'll be at the full year, at the high end of the EPS range.

對我來說，總是很難說我們沒有看到預購。也許我們確實看到了預購，也許它仍在渠道中，因為我們知道與我們通常看到的相比，渠道略有上升。但是，我們再次強調，我們已經考慮到了在達到預期峰值時將會出現的壓力，這再次表明，我們對今年的預期進行了壓力測試，這讓我們非常有信心，我們將在全年實現 EPS 範圍的高端。

Yeah, Joe, this is Chris, we're kind of reaffirming, we think residential is in that mid-single-digit growth range for the full year. And given the start of the year in Q1, it means that the average growth between Q2 and Q4 needs to really be up low single digits. So we'll see how the year plays out, but we think we've de-risked that here in the guidance, and let's see how the year plays out, we're prepared.

是的，喬，我是克里斯，我們有點重申，我們認為全年住宅成長率將處於中等個位數範圍內。考慮到今年第一季的開始，這意味著第二季和第四季之間的平均成長率需要真正達到個位數。因此，我們將看看今年的情況如何，但我們認為我們已經在指導中降低了風險，讓我們看看今年的情況如何，我們已經準備好了。

Yeah, I mean look, that's a tilt your dealers are already taking on 454B products. So that's super helpful, and that was the vast majority of the improvement this quarter. I guess the follow-on question, I know you talked a little bit about trying to offset the tariffs with cost actions. If you kind of like look at the next three quarters, I guess, the impact of your tariffs would be like roughly, I don't know, like 1 to 1.5 to 2 points of price.

是的，我的意思是，看看，這是您的經銷商對 454B 產品採取的傾斜。這非常有幫助，這也是本季絕大部分改進之處。我想接下來的問題是，我知道您談到了嘗試透過成本行動來抵消關稅。如果您想看看接下來的三個季度，我猜，關稅的影響大概是，我不知道，例如 1 到 1.5 到 2 個點的價格。

Can you maybe just tell us a little bit about like the -- just like price elasticity right now in the market because you're going through this refrigerant transition, there's additional pricing that's coming through there. Are you hearing any pushback from your dealers or from customers on pricing at this point?

您能否向我們稍微介紹一下——就像現在市場上的價格彈性一樣，因為您正在經歷冷媒的轉變，所以會產生額外的定價。目前您是否聽到經銷商或客戶對定價有任何反對意見？

Joe, it's Chris. I'll start. I mean the pricing actions we're taking are very surgical. It's not a broad-based, everything up x percentage point. It really is up to amount, and we're looking at it by product line. But the starting point for us really is getting the cost down, that $250 million to $275 million is an estimate. And I know where Dave is driving and where our operations team is driving is to get that number down and working closely with our customers on signaling where we need to put a price increase in place.

喬，我是克里斯。我先開始。我的意思是，我們採取的定價行動非常精準。這並不是一個廣泛的、一切都上漲 x 個百分點的現象。這確實取決於數量，我們正在根據產品線來查看。但對我們來說，真正的起點是降低成本，2.5 億到 2.75 億美元只是一個估計值。我知道戴夫和我們的營運團隊的目標都是降低這個數字，並與我們的客戶密切合作，發出信號告知我們需要在哪裡提高價格。

You're right. If tariffs, if the $250 million to $275 million cost really held through the year, it would be about 1 point to 1.5 points of revenue growth. We don't have that in our guidance right now. We thought it was prudent not to put it in the guidance because we don't know where the final pricing action will be, but we're confident we'll have the ability to offset that on the elasticity. It's really working closely with our customers to explain where we're trying to offset the cost and what the net cost would be. So we haven't seen that impact here in April so far.

你說得對。如果關稅真的維持在 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元的成本，那麼收入將增加約 1 個百分點至 1.5 個百分點。我們目前的指導中還沒有提到這一點。我們認為不將其納入指導是明智的，因為我們不知道最終的定價行動將會在哪裡，但我們相信我們有能力在彈性上抵消這一點。我們確實與客戶密切合作，解釋我們試圖在哪裡抵消成本以及淨成本是多少。因此，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到四月的這種影響。

Okay, thanks guys. Appreciate it.

好的，謝謝大家。非常感謝。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup

安迪·卡普洛維茨（花旗集團）

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks quarter.

嘿，大家早安。謝謝季度。

Thanks, Andy. Appreciate it.

謝謝，安迪。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So just want to talk about European margins for a second. Obviously, you talked about a significant reinvestment and I'm sure margins will bounce back. But maybe you could just talk about what you're doing there. Obviously, you've sustained strong growth in the region for a while much better than sort of market growth. So just where are you in sort of the investment cycle?

所以我想稍微談談一下歐洲的利潤率。顯然，您談到了重大的再投資，我相信利潤率將會反彈。但也許你可以談談你在那裡做什麼。顯然，你們在該地區保持了一段時間的強勁成長，比市場成長好得多。那麼您目前處於投資週期的哪個階段？

And maybe just talk about that Q1 margin if it just bounces back pretty quickly here.

如果這裡的利潤率能很快反彈，那麼也許可以談談第一季的利潤率。

Yeah, I mean Andy, hopefully as well with you. But look, at the end of the day, it is really about continuing investments in Europe, right? And we're doing it in our new products. We're doing it in our channel.

是的，我指的是安迪，希望你也是。但看看吧，歸根結底，這實際上是為了繼續在歐洲投資，對嗎？我們正在新產品中實現這一點。我們正在我們的頻道中進行此操作。

And it's just really the timing of those investments first, as Chris said in our prepared remarks, the shoulder season. I'm not concerned. That's a great team there that continues to operate at a very high level. What I am excited about in Europe is the order rates. And if you look at the order rate for Commercial HVAC, it's up in the mid-teens there, which is really reassuring that the investments that we're working on and the new products that we're introducing into the marketplace are meeting our customers expectations.

正如克里斯在我們準備好的演講中所說的那樣，這實際上只是這些投資的時機問題，即平季。我並不擔心。那是一支出色的團隊，一直保持著極高的水準。令我興奮的是歐洲的訂單率。如果你看一下商用暖通空調的訂單率，你會發現它已經達到了十幾歲的水平，這確實讓人放心，我們正在進行的投資和我們向市場推出的新產品正在滿足客戶的期望。

So great team, great execution. We'll work through the margins and the investments we're making, but we're always thinking long term, not just in a particular quarter.

如此優秀的團隊，如此出色的執行力。我們將透過利潤和投資來實現這一目標，但我們始終著眼於長遠，而不僅限於某個特定季度。

Yeah, and Andy, I'll add on. We've done a few bolt-on acquisitions in EMEA as well in the channel space. And think about reported leverage versus organic leverage, it's probably about a 5-point impact, negative impact to reported leverage, organic leverage will be stronger. So we have a lot of confidence in the full year, where we've got some integration costs on some of those acquisitions in EMEA.

是的，還有安迪，我會補充的。我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及通路領域進行了一些附加收購。想想報告的槓桿率與有機槓桿率，它可能會產生大約 5 個百分點的影響，對報告的槓桿率產生負面影響，有機槓桿率會更強。因此，我們對全年充滿信心，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的一些收購中產生了一些整合成本。

But that would be the main driver between reported versus organic leverage is really the M&A piece.

但這將是報告槓桿與有機槓桿之間的主要驅動因素，實際上是併購部分。

Got it. Very helpful. And then as you guys know, back in the day, TK being pretty weak would hurt you more than it is. I know you sort of put in the guidance, you'll continue to outperform. I just want to understand exactly sort of what you're seeing or what's in the guidance? I think you said something like down about 20% or so. But maybe you can sort of clarify that. Just TK just not that large as a percentage of the business now and so you don't get the impact. And where are you outperforming in TK versus the ACT numbers?

知道了。非常有幫助。然後，正如你們所知，在過去，T​​K 非常弱，這會給你帶來比現在更大的傷害。我知道你已經給了指引，你的表現會繼續超越。我只是想確切地了解您所看到的內容或指導中的內容？我認為您說的是下降約 20% 左右。但也許你可以澄清一下這一點。只是 TK 目前在業務中所佔的比例還不是那麼大，所以你不會受到影響。與 ACT 成績相比，您的 TK 成績在哪些方面更勝一籌？

Let me start. Look, yes, ACT continues to drop their numbers, so they're down 15%. Our internal models say we'll be down a little bit higher in the trailer side of that, even close to like 25%. If you take that, you do a weighted average for the market, we're seeing the markets in the Americas being down roughly 20%. And we think we're going to outperform.

讓我開始吧。是的，ACT 的人數持續下降，所以下降了 15%。我們的內部模型顯示，拖車方面的降幅會略高一些，甚至接近 25%。如果你採用這個方法，對市場進行加權平均，我們會發現美洲市場下跌了約 20%。我們相信我們將會表現出色。

We've continued to invest in this business through this three-year down cycle. And we have some really great products that were some of them are in the pipeline, some that have been introduced, but we're going to continue to outperform.

在這三年的下行週期中，我們一直持續對這項業務進行投資。我們有一些非常棒的產品，其中一些正在籌備中，一些已經推出，但我們將繼續保持優異的表現。

In EMEA, it's a little bit different model there or a little bit different situation. The markets are projected to be down low single digits, and we've been performing very well there with the innovations as well. So look, TK right now, if you assume that the markets are -- the trailer market is going to go down to 28%, which is where we're at, that would be the lowest level in that business in like 15 years.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，那裡的模式有點不同，或者情況有點不同。預計市場將出現低個位數下滑，而我們憑藉創新也取得了非常良好的業績。所以，TK，如果你假設市場——拖車市場將下降到 28%，也就是我們現在的水平，這將是該行業 15 年來的最低水平。

And so we think that's the trough, but we also think that it will bounce back. And when it bounces back, we're going to be there because we have a lot of great new products to show our customers. And I ran that business early in my career, Andy. And when it comes back, it's going to come back strong. And we're looking forward to 2026.

因此我們認為這是低谷，但我們也認為它會反彈。當經濟復甦時，我們也會在那裡，因為我們有很多很棒的新產品可以展示給我們的客戶。安迪，我在職業生涯早期就經營過這項業務。當它回歸時，它會強勢回歸。我們期待著2026年。

Very helpful. Thanks guys.

非常有幫助。謝謝大家。

Andy, let me clarify one comment I made on leverage. For the enterprise, it is about 1 point of M&A for the full year. It's around 4.5 points of leverage negative impact between reported and organic. If you're looking at the EMEA segment, think of it as it's probably around 5 points of impact for the EMEA segment with about 20 points impact on leverage. So my comments were maybe a little bit unclear around EMEA versus enterprise, but really good acquisitions.

安迪，讓我澄清一下我對槓桿的評論。對企業來說，全年併購大概在1個點左右。報告數據與有機數據之間的槓桿負面影響約為 4.5 點。如果您正在關注 EMEA 部分，那麼可以認為它對 EMEA 部分的影響可能約為 5 點，對槓桿的影響約為 20 點。因此，我對 EMEA 與企業的評論可能有點不清楚，但這確實是好的收購。

We like making sure that we've got direct touch with customers, and that's kind of the impact you just want to clarify that.

我們希望確保與客戶直接接觸，這就是您想要澄清的影響。

Appreciate it, Chris.

非常感謝，克里斯。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Congrats on continued execution here. Just on the resi front, any difference between the company-owned and the independent distribution sales in the quarter?

恭喜您在此繼續執行。僅從住宅方面來看，本季公司自有和獨立分銷的銷售額有何差異？

Hey Steve, it's Chris. Yeah, I think IBDs are a little bit stronger on the revenue side than the company owned.

嘿，史蒂夫，我是克里斯。是的，我認為 IBD 在收入方面比公司自有的要強一些。

Certainly, the sell-in was stronger. Sell-through was a bit stronger.

當然，拋售勢頭更為強勁。銷售量稍微強勁一些。

Okay. And then on this backlog, did you guys expect -- is the pipeline strong enough so that as you kind of move through the year that you'll be back to being positive on a year-over-year basis when it comes to backlog? I understand that most of that is the Commercial HVAC side.

好的。那麼，關於這個積壓訂單，你們是否預料到——這個渠道是否足夠強大，以便隨著這一年的推進，你們的積壓訂單數量會逐年恢復正增長？據我了解，其中大部分是商業暖通空調方面。

Yeah, I mean, I'll go back to what I said in the fourth quarter, we'll have an elevated pipeline all year I won't dial in the exact amount. There's too much lumpiness that occurs. But we're very, very happy with the build we saw in the first quarter, about $400 million in our Commercial HVAC business in the Americas, about $500 million for the enterprise. Every region had a book-to-bill that was over 1, which is encouraging.

是的，我的意思是，我會回到我在第四季度說過的話，我們全年都會有一個高架管道，我不會撥打確切的金額。出現的塊狀現象太多。但我們對第一季的成長感到非常滿意，我們在美洲的商業暖通空調業務成長了約 4 億美元，企業業務成長了約 5 億美元。每個地區的訂單出貨比都超過 1，這是令人鼓舞的。

So look, the backlog will be elevated really throughout the entire year.

所以看起來，全年積壓量確實會增加。

Okay. And then sorry, just last one, just on tariffs. So you're not including the price, I guess, the $250 million or whatever it is of exposure, you're going to kind of like guide to that stuff when -- like when will you incorporate that in guidance? What's the trigger for that. You're obviously not -- and I assume you're not including the $250 million today, obviously, you're going to kind of like feather in both the price and the tariffs kind of as you get more information on how the markets are developing? Or what's kind of the trigger for that?

好的。抱歉，只剩下最後一個問題，關於關稅。所以我想你沒有把價格包括進去，2.5 億美元或其他什麼曝光金額，你會在什麼時候對這些東西進行指導——比如你什麼時候會把它納入指導中？造成這種情況的誘因是什麼？您顯然不是——而且我認為您沒有將今天的 2.5 億美元包括在內，顯然，隨著您獲得更多有關市場發展情況的信息，您會對價格和關稅進行某種程度的調整？或者說，是什麼引發了這樣的事情？

Yeah, Stephen, that's fair. If we can see things settle down in terms of clarity, then we feel better about adjusting the revenue guidance for what we think the net price impact needs to be on tariffs. So yes, it is not in the guide today, the 7% to 8% revenue growth, which we're confident we're at the higher end of that at the 8% does not include the impact of tariff pricing today.

是的，史蒂芬，這很公平。如果我們看到事情在清晰度方面得以穩定，那麼我們會更好地調整收入指導，以適應我們認為的淨價格對關稅的影響。所以是的，今天的指南中沒有提到 7% 到 8% 的收入成長，我們相信我們處於更高的水平，8% 不包括今天關稅定價的影響。

So let's see where it plays out. Again, we're focused on getting that cost down and then we'll price accordingly to offset it dollar for dollar. But the hope would be we could do that in July when we have our second quarter earnings call. But we'll see if we have more clarity at that time.

那麼讓我們看看結果如何。再次強調，我們專注於降低成本，然後我們會相應地定價以抵消其成本。但我們希望能夠在 7 月召開第二季財報電話會議時做到這一點。但到時候我們會看到是否會有更清晰的答案。

But sorry, you're embedding the cost without the price today?

但抱歉，您今天嵌入的是成本，而不是價格？

We are confident on the adjusted earnings per share line that we will cover the cost of tariffs. So

我們對調整後的每股盈餘充滿信心，我們將能夠覆蓋關稅成本。所以

Without price, okay.

不計價格，好。

Well, it could be price. It could be a combination of lowering the $250 million to $275 million because of actions we're working with suppliers and trade routes. It could also be with surgical pricing. We're just not dialing in a different number on revenue growth, which if it is $250 million to $275 million of ultimate tariff costs, that would add about 1 point to 1.5 points of revenue.

嗯，可能是價格。由於我們與供應商和貿易路線採取的行動，這一數字可能會從 2.5 億美元降至 2.75 億美元。也可能與手術定價有關。我們只是沒有在收入成長上投入不同的數字，如果最終關稅成本為 2.5 億美元至 2.75 億美元，那麼收入將增加約 1 個百分點至 1.5 個百分點。

But we're not going to dial that in today because we really want to measure twice and cut once with the -- with getting better visibility on what the tariff landscape will be.

但我們今天不會撥打電話，因為我們確實想三思而後行——以便更好地了解關稅情況。

Right. But would that be upside the price? Sorry, I just want to make sure I had the offsets. Would that be upside to the guidance from price? Or would that be just another mechanism you used to offset the cost?

正確的。但這是否意味著價格上漲？抱歉，我只是想確保我有偏移量。這會對價格指引產生上行影響嗎？或者這只是您用來抵消成本的另一種機制？

Technically, it would be an upside to price, right? We're 1 to 1.5 points of price in the guidance for the year. I think they were very solid at that number.

從技術上來說，這對價格來說是一個上漲趨勢，對嗎？我們今年的指導價格為 1 至 1.5 點。我認為他們在這個數字上表現非常穩健。

Yeah, reductions.

是的，減少。

But it would be upside to price to the extent that we have to price surgically for tariffs and no change in EPS. We've got that covered in EPS.

但如果我們必須根據關稅精確定價且每股收益不改變，那麼價格就會上漲。我們在 EPS 中已經涵蓋了這一點。

Yeah, okay, that makes sense. Thanks a lot.

是的，好的，這很有道理。多謝。

Okay, thanks, Steve.

好的，謝謝，史蒂夫。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），垂直研究公司。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hope everyone's well. Hey, A couple for me. Just first on Mexico. You guys have lower exposure down there than your peers generally perhaps everybody's USMCA compliant. But my question is, do you see any fundamental sourcing advantage from Mexico vis-a-vis your competitors?

嘿，謝謝你。大家早安。希望大家一切安好。嘿，給我來一對吧。首先談談墨西哥。你們在那裡的曝光率比同行低，也許每個人都遵守 USMCA。但我的問題是，您是否認為墨西哥相對於您的競爭對手具有任何根本的採購優勢？

Yeah, we have one plant in Mexico. I can't talk to what the competitors have. We have about 20 plants in the United States. About 80%, 85% of what we're shipping from Mexico to our one plant in Mexico to the United States is USMCA compliant. So I think we're in good shape there.

是的，我們在墨西哥有一家工廠。我無法談論競爭對手的情況。我們在美國有大約20家工廠。我們從墨西哥運往我們位於墨西哥的一家工廠並運往美國的貨物中，大約 80% 到 85% 都符合 USMCA 的規定。所以我認為我們的情況很好。

But not using tariffs as a profit center, as you said, you wouldn't be looking for excess price out of Mexico if you didn't need it in your own operations.

但是，正如您所說，不要將關稅作為利潤中心，如果您自己的營運不需要，您就不會在墨西哥尋找過高的價格。

That's correct. That's correct. We're very clear with our teams to that. We're just going to -- if we have a tariff cost, it's going to be dollar for dollar, we have to offset with price. We're not trying to have this be opportune.

沒錯。沒錯。我們的團隊對此非常清楚。我們只是要——如果我們有關稅成本，那將是一美元對一美元，我們必須用價格來抵銷。我們並不是想讓這成為一種機會。

Again, we think that's a very bad long-term strategy. And we want to make sure our customers know that we're doing everything we can to make sure they're getting the most economic value possible for the products and services that we offer.

再次強調，我們認為這是一個非常糟糕的長期策略。我們希望確保我們的客戶知道，我們正在竭盡全力確保他們從我們提供的產品和服務中獲得最大的財務價值。

And then, Dave, I was wondering if you could maybe put your macro hat on a little bit for us. You look at these TK and transport outlooks, right? And as Andy noted, it's manageable in the current construct. But that also looks like kind of a macroeconomic recession signal. It's been a long time since we had a normal recession, right?

然後，戴夫，我想知道你是否可以為我們稍微介紹一下你的宏觀帽子。您看看這些 TK 和運輸前景，對嗎？正如安迪所指出的，在當前結構下這是可控的。但這也看起來像是一種宏觀經濟衰退的訊號。我們已經很久沒有經歷過正常的經濟衰退了，對吧？

2020 was so quick and different. But maybe you could just talk about your contingency planning if things do get a lot more difficult here, what levers you'd be pulling? And are you legitimately concerned we might be looking at something much more difficult from an economic standpoint?

2020 年過得如此之快，如此不同。但也許您可以談談您的應急計劃，如果事情變得更加困難，您會採取什麼措施？您是否真的擔心從經濟角度來看我們可能會面臨更困難的事情？

Yeah, I'll start with, we're not projecting any kind of a recession, but I would tell you that part of our business operating system and is the part that's always been there is really robust scenario planning. So we start every year with what are the different scenarios that we're going to go through. We identified at a very detailed level.

是的，首先，我們不會預測任何類型的經濟衰退，但我想告訴你，我們的商業作業系統的一部分，也是一直存在的部分，是真正強大的情境規劃。因此，我們每年都會考慮我們將要經歷的不同場景。我們進行了非常詳細的識別。

We look for different triggers that would say we should take different actions. So it's very, very specific and its business by business. So we're not trying to take averages on averages here. It's very, very specific within a business, within a region and the teams do a great job there. And that's something that Chris and I look at on a quarterly basis, and we call it our trigger report to make sure that we don't have -- or we make sure we have more greens than reds.

我們尋找不同的觸發因素來促使我們採取不同的行動。所以它非常非常具體，並且是針對特定業務的。所以我們在這裡並不是想對平均值進行平均。它在一個企業、一個地區內非常具體，團隊在那裡做得很好。這是我和克里斯每季度都會查看的內容，我們稱之為觸發報告，以確保我們沒有 - 或確保我們的綠色多於紅色。

And look, we're not forecasting a recession right now, but I would tell you that if we did see a downturn, part of the scenario planning is you have a plan, which is you never want to go into a crisis and not have a plan because that's when people start taking hard rights and hard lefts and they make bad decisions.

瞧，我們現在並沒有預測會出現經濟衰退，但我要告訴你，如果我們確實看到了經濟衰退，情景規劃的一部分就是你要有一個計劃，也就是說，你永遠不想在沒有計劃的情況下陷入危機，因為那時人們開始左右搖擺，做出錯誤的決定。

See that from Trane Technologies because we would have a plan based on whatever scenario happens and that could be on the upside or it could be on the downside. The Thermo King business, look, I've been in that business for a long time. And it's been 15 years since we had 28,000 trailer market in North America. Look, I -- there's a -- you could -- there's lots of analysis. But one of the things we look at is what's just the replacement market in the TK Americas. And that would be like 35,000.

從 Trane Technologies 來看，我們會根據任何可能發生的情況制定計劃，這可能是好的方面，也可能是壞的方面。你看，我從事 Thermo King 業務已經很久了。我們在北美擁有 28,000 輛拖車市場已經有 15 年了。瞧，我——有——你可以——有很多分析。但我們關注的事情之一是 TK Americas 的替代市場。那大概是 35,000。

So look, capacity is coming out, these units are going to cost more to run. And over time, this market is going to come back and it's going to come back quickly. The key is make sure that you continue to invest in the business even though you may be hearing a lot of bad news on the street. And that's certainly our strategy at Trane technologies, and it's been our strategy for a while.

所以看，產能正在耗盡，這些設備的運作成本將會更高。隨著時間的推移，這個市場將會復甦，而且復甦得很快。關鍵是要確保你繼續投資該業務，即使你可能聽到很多壞消息。這當然是特靈科技的策略，而且這是我們長期以來的戰略。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Sure, Jeff.

當然，傑夫。

Nigel Coe, Wolf Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning. Great quarter, and, great color as well so far. So I thought I understood the $250 million to $275 million. It's neutral to the framework, it gets offset by price or other mitigant actions there's no upside from pricing. Just want to make sure that's clear. And if I'm not, please correct me.

謝謝。早安.到目前為止，這是一個很棒的季度，而且顏色也很棒。所以我認為我了解 2.5 億美元到 2.75 億美元這個數字。它對框架來說是中性的，它會被價格或其他緩解措施所抵消，定價沒有任何好處。只是想確保這一點清楚。如果我不是，請糾正我。

But I want to go back to the resi outperformance because the high teens is quite stunning. And I think you said 80% A2L shipments through the quarter. So I'm guessing right now, you should be running close to 100% A2L. Your competitors seem to be struggling more with this transition. So I'm wondering if there's any share gains that you're seeing out there?

但我想回到房地產的優異表現，因為高十幾個百分點的表現相當驚人。我認為您說過本季 A2L 出貨量為 80%。所以我現在猜測，你應該運行接近 100% 的 A2L。您的競爭對手似乎在這種轉變中遇到了更多困難。所以我想知道您是否看到了任何份額增長？

And if you think those share gains might be sticky through the year.

如果您認為這些份額的成長可能會持續到全年。

Thanks. Yeah, look, as far as resi goes, it's the first quarter, don't look at a quarter in residential for market share. There's different -- we serve the market in different ways. I'm talking about some of our competitors. So look, it's a long game here.

謝謝。是的，就住宅而言，這是第一季度，不要看住宅一個季度的市場份額。有所不同—我們以不同的方式服務市場。我正在談論我們的一些競爭對手。所以你看，這是一場持久戰。

You have to look at share over an extended period of time. That said, 100% of what we're shipping right now is 454B. Obviously, we're only manufacturing the 454B right now unless it's at a component level, but again, that would be more on the repair side. As far as the performance in the first quarter, yeah, it was strong. I'm very happy.

您必須在較長時間內關注份額。也就是說，我們現在運送的貨物 100% 都是 454B。顯然，我們目前只生產 454B，除非它是在組件級別，但同樣，那將更專注於維修方面。就第一季的表現而言，確實很強勁。我很高興。

I'm proud of what that team has been able to accomplish. It's a great start to the year. But again, it's the first quarter. We'll see how the rest of the year plays out. As Chris said, we think we're going to be at mid-single digits for the year, and that implies that the back half of the year is going to be at the low single-digit rate based on the high performance that we had in the first quarter.

我為該團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。這是今年的一個好開始。但話說回來，這只是第一季。我們將看看今年剩餘時間的情況如何。正如克里斯所說，我們認為今年的成長率將達到中等個位數，這意味著基於我們在第一季的出色表現，下半年的成長率也將達到低個位數。

Understood. No, that's clear. Thanks, Dave. And then going back to tariffs and really beating this dead horse one more time. But the $250 million, '25, I'm guessing most of that would be imports from China. Again, correct me if I'm wrong.

明白了。不，這很清楚。謝謝，戴夫。然後回到關稅問題，再次成為無用之物。但我猜這 2.5 億美元大部分將來自中國進口。如果我錯了，請再次糾正我。

I'm just curious, the reason I'm asking is if we do see a dial back in the tariff rates, which I think we're all assuming at some point, just trying to understand sensitivity to that. And then I'm wondering any color on sort of sourcing of components, motors, et cetera, versus finished product? Any help that would be useful too.

我只是好奇，我問這個問題的原因是我們是否確實看到關稅稅率的回落，我想我們都在某個時候假設這一點，只是想了解對此的敏感性。然後我想知道零件、引擎等的採購情況與成品的情況如何？任何幫助都會有用。

Hey Nigel, it's Chris. I'll start. Yes, China would be the largest exposure to us with that 145% tariff that we've got included in the estimated tariff costs for 2025 of the $250 million to $275 million. As Dave articulated, Mexico, Canada, it's a really small impact to us. The majority, close to 85%, 90% is USMCA compliant.

嘿，奈傑爾，我是克里斯。我先開始。是的，中國對我們而言是最大的風險敞口，因為 145% 的關稅已包含在我們預計的 2025 年 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元的關稅成本中。正如戴夫所說，墨西哥、加拿大對我們的影響真的很小。大多數（接近 85%、90%）符合 USMCA 規定。

So it's a smaller part. And then, of course, we've got several countries with a 10% baseline tariff. So all of that is kind of factored in with what we know today in the $250 million to $275 million. When I think about Tier 1 commodities, right? Maybe we're a little bit more advantageous here.

所以它只是一小部分。當然，還有幾個國家實施 10% 的基準關稅。所以所有這些都與我們今天所知的 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元有關。當我想到一級商品時，對嗎？也許我們在這裡更有優勢一點。

I mean 100% of our steel and copper is being sourced from the U.S. Over 90% of our aluminum is sourced from the US. So we love those suppliers. We have great relationships with them. And at the same time, maybe our exposure there to other markets is maybe less than average. So we've got that factored into the guide as well. Otherwise.

我的意思是，我們的鋼鐵和銅 100% 都來自美國。我們 90% 以上的鋁都來自美國。所以我們喜歡這些供應商。我們與他們的關係很好。同時，我們對其他市場的曝光度可能低於平均值。因此我們也將這一點納入了指南中。否則。

On complete units, very small, Nigel is coming out of China. There is some in our value products that serves the residential space. However, I would tell you that we also have value products or value brands that we manufacture here in the US. So we think that could be actually an advantage because we believe that there is a lot of that value portion of the resi market that's being served not necessarily by Trane Technologies, but others with product that's coming out of China and considering we manufacture the majority of what we sell there here in the United States, that could be an advantage for us.

就完整的單位而言，非常小，奈傑爾來自中國。我們的一些價值產品是服務於住宅空間的。不過，我想告訴你，我們在美國也生產有價值的產品或有價值的品牌。因此，我們認為這實際上可能是一個優勢，因為我們相信，住宅市場中很大一部分價值份額不一定由特靈科技提供，而是其他公司的產品來自中國，考慮到我們在美國生產大部分在中國銷售的產品，這對我們來說可能是一個優勢。

But stay tuned to that. We'll see how everything shakes out. Obviously, nobody is bringing complete units from China right now if they're paying 145% term.

但請繼續關注。我們將看看一切將如何發展。顯然，如果支付 145% 的分期付款，現在沒有人會從中國進口完整的設備。

Yeah, that's fair. Okay, thanks, Dave.

是的，這很公平。好的，謝謝，戴夫。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

I just want to circle back on just the approach on tariff and pricing. And I love the concept you're not making it a profit center. But just the math on offsetting dollar for dollar will result in a margin hit, and that's something you've kind of -- you're at piece with.

我只是想重新討論關稅和定價方法。我喜歡你不把它變成利潤中心的理念。但僅僅以一美元對一美元的比率進行計算就會導致利潤率下降，而這正是你所承受的。

Yeah, I mean we started the year, Deane. This is Chris, with the thought that we would be able to -- with our plan to defend margin percent if tariffs were in place. And I think what we've seen is a much broader impact and a much larger impact on a percentage basis. So wanting to make sure we're working with customers and to Dave's point, not making it a profit center, now we're going to make sure we can offset on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

是的，我的意思是我們已經開始了新的一年，迪恩。這是克里斯，我認為如果關稅到位，我們將能夠——按照我們的計劃來捍衛利潤率。我認為，我們所看到的影響更為廣泛，而且從百分比來看影響也更大。因此，為了確保我們與客戶合作，並且按照戴夫的觀點，不將其作為利潤中心，現在我們要確保我們能夠以一比一的方式進行抵消。

On that piece alone, yes, it may be an impact on margins, but we have other ways to grow margins here as well.

僅從這一點來看，它可能會對利潤產生影響，但我們還有其他方法可以增加利潤。

Great. And then second topic, you commented continued strength in the data center vertical. Any specifics there that you can share? And talk about your interest -- ongoing interest in liquid cooling?

偉大的。然後是第二個主題，您評論了資料中心垂直領域的持續實力。有什麼具體細節可以分享嗎？談談您的興趣—對液體冷卻的持續興趣？

Look, Deane, we continue to be strong in that vertical. We've always been strong there. We're always looking at how do you keep pushing innovation and whether it be in liquid cooling or whether it be in how do you get the COP coefficient of performance of these units up, that's what we're focused on now.

你看，迪恩，我們在這個垂直領域繼續保持強勢。我們在那裡一直很強大。我們一直在研究如何持續推動創新，無論是在液體冷卻方面，還是在如何提高這些裝置的 COP 性能係數方面，這就是我們現在關注的重點。

And we're working very closely with many of the hyperscalers, and we're having great success. The point I'm always trying to make is that, look, we're strong in data centers. But we're very strong in all verticals, and you would expect that with our broad portfolio

我們與許多超大規模企業密切合作，並取得了巨大的成功。我一直試圖強調的一點是，看，我們在資料中心方面很強大。但我們在所有垂直領域都非常強大，而且憑藉我們廣泛的產品組合，這一點也是意料之中的。

Great thank you.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Deane.

謝謝，迪恩。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, Tommy, how are you? Morning.

嘿，湯米，你好嗎？早晨。

Doing fine, thank you. Dave, I wanted to ask specifically on your Commercial HVAC conversations. I'm thinking upper funnel here. To what extent are tariffs driving those conversations? Just generally, even in terms of uncertainty around what lies ahead generally leads to, shall we say, delayed decision-making less confidence across your customer base. Are those kinds of anecdotes starting to percolate yet?

很好，謝謝。戴夫，我想具體詢問你關於商業暖通空調的對話。我在這裡考慮的是上部漏斗。關稅在多大程度上推動了這些對話？一般來說，即使對未來的不確定性通常也會導致決策延遲，從而降低客戶群的信心。這些軼事是否已經開始流傳開來？

Yeah, I mean we haven't seen it, Tommy. I mean I know that would be the assumption that everyone would be making. But to be honest, we haven't seen. I'm sure the conversations are occurring, but it certainly hasn't bubbled up to my level or the team hasn't brought it up as a major.

是的，我的意思是我們還沒有看到它，湯米。我的意思是我知道這是每個人都會做出的假設。但說實話，我們還沒看到。我確信對話正在進行，但它肯定沒有達到我的水平，或者團隊沒有把它作為一個主要問題提出來。

So remember, most applied projects, especially the ones that are more complex where you would see Trane Technology really having a competitive advantage, those are longer cycle projects. So there's a lot of influencers there, not just what the cost potentially could be of a tariff that could add a point or something to the cost base.

所以請記住，大多數應用項目，特別是那些更複雜的項目，你會看到特靈技術確實具有競爭優勢，這些都是週期較長的項目。因此，有許多影響因素，而不僅僅是關稅的潛在成本可能會增加成本基礎的一個點或其他東西。

And maybe just to end on a strategic point here. If we zoom out a little bit from the tariff conversation and beyond what is or isn't in place, today, a month from now. It does appear that we're headed for an increasingly protectionist marketplace. I'm just curious, strategically, how does that evolve your thinking in terms of market share opportunities or threats, supply chain decision-making? How you allocate organic or inorganic investment? What's on your mind here?

也許只是為了在這裡結束一個戰略要點。如果我們稍微放眼關稅討論，看看現在和一個月後哪些關稅已經實施或尚未實施。看起來，我們正走向一個保護主義日益加劇的市場。我只是好奇，從策略上講，這會如何改變您在市場份額機會或威脅、供應鏈決策方面的思維？您如何分配有機或無機投資？你在想什麼呢？

Yeah. I think, Tommy, we're going to remain nimble. I think that an in-region, four-region strategy, not just only from a manufacturing standpoint, but how our leadership teams are set up is going to play to our competitive advantage.

是的。湯米，我想我們會保持靈活。我認為，區域內、四區域策略，不僅從製造的角度，而且從我們的領導團隊的設置方式來看，都將發揮我們的競爭優勢。

Thank you, I'll turn it back.

謝謝，我會退回去。

All right, thanks, Tom.

好的，謝謝，湯姆。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞·凱伊，奧本海默。

Yeah, thanks, Dave, you said earlier, you really lead with payback, right, on these projects in Applied. And you've talked in the past about retrofit being anywhere from 65% to 70% of the mix in applied. As you kind of look at both the orders this quarter and the pipeline, I mean, new construction is growing, but it's somewhat modest. Does the mix of bookings kind of continue to shift towards retrofit in your view?

是的，謝謝，戴夫，你之前說過，在應用材料公司的這些項目中，你確實以回報為主導。您過去曾談到改造佔應用總量的 65% 到 70%。當你查看本季的訂單和管道時，我的意思是，新建築正在成長，但速度有些溫和。您認為預訂組合是否會繼續轉向改造方向？

Yeah, I don't have that level of detail, but it certainly would be a great assumption to make.

是的，我沒有那麼詳細，但這肯定是一個很好的假設。

We'll get after it further. Thank you, guys.

我們會進一步追查。謝謝你們。

We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Zac Nagle for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給 Zac Nagle 來做最後發言。

Thanks, operator. I'd like to thank everyone for joining today's call. As always, we'll be available for questions in the coming days and weeks. And we look forward to seeing many of you on the road in the upcoming months. Thank you very much.

謝謝，接線生。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我們將在未來幾天和幾週內解答您的疑問。我們期待在接下來的幾個月裡在路上見到你們。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。