特靈科技 (TT) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Trane Technologies fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加特靈科技2025年第四季財報電話會議。我叫雷吉娜，我將是您的接線生。電話會議將在幾分鐘後開始，首先是發言人致詞和問答環節。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Zac Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁扎克·納格爾。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies' fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We're also recording and archiving this call on our website.

謝謝接線生。早安，感謝各位參加特靈科技2025年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網路直播，您可以在網站上找到相關的簡報。我們還在網站上錄製並存檔了這通通話。

Please go to slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release.

請翻到第二張幻燈片。今天電話會議中所提出的非歷史事實的陳述均被視為前瞻性陳述，並符合聯邦證券法的安全港條款。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致我們的實際業績與預期業績有重大差異的一些因素。本次演示還包括非GAAP指標，這些指標在我們的新聞稿附件財務表格中有詳細說明。

Joining me on today's call are Dave Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Chris Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave. Dave?

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事長兼執行長戴夫·雷格納裡，以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯·庫恩。接下來，我會把電話交給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Zac, and everyone, for joining today's call. Please turn to slide number 3. I'd like to begin with a few thoughts on our purpose-driven strategy, which continues to drive consistent outperformance over time. Demand for energy has never been greater. Digitalization, industrial growth, and new technologies are putting pressure on Energy Systems. Customers are looking for smarter, more efficient ways to run their operations. That's where Trane Technologies is uniquely positioned to win. Our solutions help customers save energy, lower operating costs, and create more balance and flexibility in how they use energy. It's proof that sustainability and performance go hand-in-hand.

謝謝札克，也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。請翻到第3張投影片。我想先談談我們以目標為導向的策略，而正是這項策略讓我們在很長一段時間內持續取得優異的績效。能源需求從未如此高。數位化、工業成長和新技術正在給能源系統帶來壓力。客戶正在尋找更智慧、更有效率的營運方式。而這正是特靈科技公司擁有獨特優勢並能取得成功的地方。我們的解決方案可以幫助客戶節省能源、降低營運成本，並在能源使用方面創造更大的平衡和靈活性。這證明永續性和性能是相輔相成的。

As we look ahead, our innovation and expertise continue to set us apart. With our exceptional backlog, robust demand, proven business operating system, and leading innovation, we're well positioned to continue delivering differentiated value well into the future.

展望未來，我們的創新和專業技術將繼續使我們脫穎而出。憑藉我們卓越的訂單儲備、強勁的需求、成熟的業務營運體系和領先的創新能力，我們完全有能力在未來繼續提供差異化的價值。

Please turn to slide number 4. 2025 was a strong year for the company. Our global teams executed at a high level, enabling us to exceed adjusted EPS guidance despite softness in residential and transport refrigeration markets. Free cash flow remained robust, funding strategic M&A, a growing dividend, and significant share repurchases. Bookings were also exceptional. Our Commercial HVAC businesses in Americas and EMEA added $1.3 billion in backlog versus year-end 2024, strengthening our visibility into strong growth in 2026 and beyond.

請翻到第 4 張投影片。 2025 年是公司業績強勁的一年。儘管住宅和運輸冷凍市場疲軟，但我們的全球團隊高效執行，使我們能夠超越調整後的每股盈餘預期。自由現金流保持強勁，為策略併購、不斷增長的股息和大量股票回購提供了資金。預訂情況也非常好。與 2024 年底相比，我們在美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的商用暖通空調業務新增了 13 億美元的積壓訂單，增強了我們對 2026 年及以後強勁增長的信心。

Please turn to slide number 5. Relentless investment in innovation, growth, people, culture, and our business operating system has delivered clear sustained benefits reflected in our strong and consistent track record. Since 2020, we've achieved an 11% revenue compound annual growth rate, a 24% adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate; expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 470 basis points and delivered free cash flow conversion of 106%, while deploying over $15 billion through our balanced capital allocation strategy.

請翻到第5張投影片。我們對創新、成長、人才、文化和業務營運體系的持續投入，帶來了清晰而持續的效益，這體現在我們強勁而穩定的業績記錄中。自 2020 年以來，我們實現了 11% 的收入複合年增長率、24% 的調整後每股收益複合年增長率；調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 470 個基點，自由現金流轉換率達到了 106%，同時透過我們均衡的資本配置策略部署了超過 150 億美元。

Consistent reinvestment has been central to our long-term success. For more than a decade, we've steadily invested in high ROI initiatives, built a world-class direct sales and service organization, and developed cutting-edge solutions for our customers' most pressing challenges, driving sustained demand. We have a proven track record and all the essential ingredients to execute our strategy and continued delivering differentiated returns over the long term.

持續的再投資是我們長期成功的關鍵。十多年來，我們持續投資於高投資報酬率的項目，建立了世界級的直銷和服務組織，並為客戶面臨的最緊迫挑戰開發了尖端解決方案，從而推動了持續的需求。我們擁有良好的業績記錄和所有必要的要素，能夠執行我們的策略，並在長期內持續帶來差異化的回報。

Please turn to slide number 6. We delivered strong fourth quarter performance, highlighted by exceptional enterprise organic bookings up 22%, driving record backlog of $7.8 billion. Organic revenue grew 4%, led by continued strength in our Americas Commercial HVAC businesses and our global services business. We also delivered 10% adjusted EPS growth and robust free cash flow. Exceptional bookings were led by our Commercial HVAC businesses.

請翻到第6張投影片。我們第四季業績表現強勁，其中企業有機訂單成長 22%，創下 78 億美元的積壓訂單紀錄。有機收入成長 4%，這主要得益於美洲商業暖通空調業務和全球服務業務的持續強勁成長。我們還實現了 10% 的調整後每股收益成長和強勁的自由現金流。我們的商用暖通空調業務帶來了卓越的預訂。

Americas Commercial HVAC was again a standout delivering record Q4 organic bookings, up more than 35% year over year. Applied Solutions bookings were up more than 120% with a record book-to-bill of 200%, marking the second consecutive quarter with applied bookings growth exceeding 100%.

美洲商用暖通空調再次表現出色，第四季有機訂單量創歷史新高，較去年同期成長超過 35%。應用解決方案的預訂量增長超過 120%，訂單出貨比達到創紀錄的 200%，這是應用解決方案預訂量連續第二個季度增長超過 100%。

EMEA HVAC also delivered strong results with its second straight quarter of mid- to high-teens organic bookings growth. Commercial HVAC backlog is substantially higher versus year-end 2024, with backlog up approximately 25% in the Americas and nearly 40% in EMEA. And importantly, the backlog is predominantly applied, which carries a long higher-margin services tail.

EMEA HVAC 也取得了強勁的業績，連續第二個季度實現了 15% 到 10% 的有機預訂量成長。商業暖通空調積壓訂單比 2024 年底大幅增加，美洲地區的積壓訂單增加了約 25%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的積壓訂單增加了近 40%。更重要的是，積壓訂單主要集中在應用領域，而應用領域則包含利潤率較高的長期服務訂單。

As we enter 2026, we are well positioned for growth, especially in areas where disciplined execution to our business operating system is a key driver of success. In Commercial HVAC, exceptional bookings growth and record backlog give us strong visibility to future revenues and market outgrowth. Projected pipelines remain robust and continue to build. Even after two consecutive quarters of more than 100% applied growth in Americas Commercial HVAC, we continue to see substantial opportunities ahead.

進入 2026 年，我們已做好充分準備迎接成長，尤其是在那些嚴格執行業務營運體係是成功關鍵驅動因素的領域。在商用暖通空調領域，訂單量大幅成長，積壓訂單創歷史新高，這讓我們對未來的營收和市場成長有了清晰的預期。預計管道建設依然穩健，並將持續推進。即使美洲商業暖通空調市場連續兩季實現了超過 100% 的應用成長，我們仍然看到未來存在巨大的機會。

Our Services business, about one-third of enterprise revenue remains a durable and consistent growth engine with a low teens compound annual growth rate since becoming Trane Technologies in 2020. We continue to invest heavily in services and expand our digital capabilities to deliver advanced solutions with compelling value and attractive paybacks. We are confident Services will remain a strong growth driver in 2026 and beyond.

自 2020 年成為 Trane Technologies 以來，我們的服務業務（約佔企業收入的三分之一）一直是持久穩定的成長引擎，複合年增長率保持在 10% 左右。我們將繼續大力投資服務，並擴展我們的數位化能力，以提供具有強大價值和可觀回報的先進解決方案。我們相信，服務業將在 2026 年及以後繼續保持強勁的成長動能。

Two additional factors have the potential to accelerate growth in the back half of the year. Residential markets were a tale of two halves in 2025 with a significantly weaker second half. We expect 2026 to get progressively better with tailwinds building later in the year as comps ease. Similarly, industrial forecast including from ACT point to a transport market recovery beginning late in 2026 and extending into 2027 and beyond, a view we largely share. This should support growth in the fourth quarter and beyond. Our guidance reflects this backdrop, and Chris will elaborate shortly.

還有兩個因素有可能加速下半年的成長。2025 年住宅市場呈現截然不同的兩階段，下半年明顯疲軟。我們預期 2026 年情況將逐步好轉，隨著同業競爭緩解，利好因素將在下半年逐漸顯現。同樣，包括 ACT 在內的工業預測表明，運輸市場將於 2026 年末開始復蘇，並持續到 2027 年及以後，我們對此觀點基本認同。這將有助於第四季度及以後的成長。我們的指導反映了這一背景，克里斯稍後會詳細說明。

Please turn to slide number 7. Americas Commercial HVAC continued its standout performance with bookings up more than 35% and revenue up low double digits. Growth was broad-based across nearly all verticals and in both equipment and services. In residential, bookings were up mid-single digits, while revenues declined mid-teens, reflecting the normalization of channel inventory in the quarter. In Americas transport refrigeration, bookings were down mid-single digits and revenues were down low single digits, outperforming transport markets that declined more than 20%.

請翻到第7張投影片。美洲商用暖通空調業務持續維持優異表現，訂單量成長超過 35%，營收成長接近兩位數。幾乎所有垂直領域，包括設備和服務領域，都實現了全面成長。在住宅領域，預訂量成長了中等個位數，而收入下降了十幾個百分點，反映出該季度通路庫存的正常化。在美洲運輸冷藏領域，預訂量下降了中等個位數，收入下降了低個位數，表現優於下降超過 20% 的運輸市場。

In EMEA, Commercial HVAC bookings were again robust, up mid-teens and revenues were up mid-single digits. EMEA transport bookings were down low single digits and revenues declined at a similar rate, outperforming end markets that were down mid-single digits. In Asia Pacific, China remained challenging with double-digit declines in bookings and revenue. The rest of Asia performed as expected, with bookings up low double digits and revenues down low single digits. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，商用暖通空調設備的訂單量再次強勁增長，增幅達兩位數以上，收入也實現了個位數中段的成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的運輸預訂量下降了個位數百分比，收入也以類似的速度下降，表現優於下降個位數百分比的終端市場。在亞太地區，中國市場仍面臨挑戰，預訂量和收入均出現兩位數下滑。亞洲其他地區表現符合預期，預訂量成長兩位數，收入下降個位數。現在我想把電話交給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 8. Dave covered many of the key points from this slide earlier, so I'll keep my comments brief. Q4 organic revenue grew 4% and 7%, excluding residential, consistent with the dynamics we've already discussed. Margins were impacted by proactive measures taken to normalized residential inventory which reduced factory production days by one-third and resulted in roughly 60% deleverage in that business.

謝謝你，戴夫。請翻到第8張幻燈片。Dave 之前已經講解過這張投影片上的許多要點，所以我將簡要地評論。第四季有機收入成長 4% 和 7%（不包括住宅業務），這與我們之前討論過的動態一致。為使住宅庫存正常化而採取的積極措施影響了利潤率，這些措施使工廠生產天數減少了三分之一，並導致該業務的去槓桿化率約為 60%。

Please turn to slide number 9. In the Americas, we delivered 5% organic revenue growth driven by strong Commercial HVAC volume and positive price, partially offset by residential declines. Margins were lower mainly due to residential deleverage. We also stepped up innovation and growth investments.

請翻到第9張投影片。在美洲，我們實現了 5% 的有機收入成長，這主要得益於強勁的商用 HVAC 銷售和積極的價格走勢，但部分被住宅業務的下滑所抵消。利潤率下降主要是因為住宅去槓桿化。我們也加大了對創新和成長的投資。

In EMEA, organic revenue grew 2%, led by Commercial HVAC. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 160 basis points, reflecting year 1 acquisition and integration costs. As noted throughout the year, channel investments in M&A in 2025 weighed on near-term margins, but position us for stronger long-term growth.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，有機收入成長了 2%，其中商用暖通空調業務成長強勁。經調整的 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 160 個基點，反映了第一年的收購和整合成本。正如全年所指出的，2025 年的通路併購投資對短期利潤率造成了壓力，但使我們為更強勁的長期成長奠定了基礎。

In Asia Pacific, organic revenue declined 6%, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined 20 basis points. The team managed costs to limit deleverage while continuing to invest in the business.

在亞太地區，有機收入下降了 6%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 20 個基點。團隊透過控製成本來限制去槓桿化，同時繼續對業務進行投資。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 10. Overall, Q4 played out largely as expected, with residential revenues a bit better than anticipated, and Commercial HVAC bookings even stronger. Our Americas Commercial HVAC business continued to execute at a very high level, significantly outperforming end markets. Bookings and revenues are compounding at strong rates, especially in Applied Solutions.

謝謝你，克里斯。請翻到第10張投影片。整體而言，第四季基本上符合預期，住宅收入略優於預期，而商業暖通空調預訂量則更為強勁。我們的美洲商業暖通空調業務持續保持非常高的執行水平，顯著優於終端市場。預訂量和收入正以強勁的速度成長，尤其是在應用解決方案領域。

As noted earlier, our exceptional bookings, record backlog, and rapidly expanding pipeline give us a high level of confidence that 2026 will be another strong year.

如前所述，我們卓越的預訂量、創紀錄的積壓訂單以及快速增長的銷售管道，使我們對 2026 年將又是一個強勁的年份充滿信心。

Based on customer delivery timing and year over year comparisons, we expect solid growth in the first half and even stronger growth in the back half. In residential, we believe channel inventory is largely normalized as we enter Q1. Our outlook for the market for 2026 is prudent, flat to modestly lower with Q1 expected to be the trough, down about 20% given the high teens growth we saw in Q1 2025. We expect the market to return to growth in the second half.

根據客戶交貨時間和年比數據，我們預計上半年將穩健成長，下半年成長將更加強勁。我們認為，隨著第一季的到來，住宅市場的通路庫存已基本恢復正常。我們對 2026 年市場的展望較為謹慎，預計市場將保持平穩或略有下降，第一季度預計將是谷底，鑑於我們在 2025 年第一季度看到的兩位數以上的增長，預計市場將下降約 20%。我們預計市場將在下半年恢復成長。

In the Americas transport markets, ACT forecast trailers down about 7% in 2026, and our view is generally aligned. Market indicators are improving, and we expect the sector to turn positive late in 2026 and into 2027. We expect to again outperform the market.

ACT 預測，到 2026 年，美洲運輸市場的拖車數量將下降約 7%，我們的觀點也基本一致。市場指標正在改善，我們預計該行業將在 2026 年底至 2027 年轉好。我們預計再次跑贏大盤。

In EMEA, Commercial HVAC enters 2026 following a significant investment year and strong 2025 bookings that lifted backlog nearly 40% year over year. We expect a softer start with mid-single-digit growth improving to high single-digit growth in the second half as backlog converts. EMEA transport markets are expected to be flat to modestly lower. The team grew low single digits in a down market in 2025, and we expect them to outperform again in 2026.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，商業暖通空調產業在經歷了重大投資年和強勁的 2025 年訂單量後，進入 2026 年，積壓訂單年增近 40%。我們預計下半年開局較為溫和，增幅為個位數中段，隨著積壓訂單的轉化，增速將改善至個位數高段。預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區的運輸市場將保持穩定或略有下降。2025 年，在市場低迷的情況下，該團隊實現了個位數低成長，我們預計他們在 2026 年將再次取得優異成績。

In Asia Pacific, we expect mixed performance with the rest of Asia outperforming China. For the region as a whole, we expect relatively flat performance in 2026.

我們預期亞太地區經濟表現將喜憂參半，亞洲其他地區將優於中國。我們預計該地區整體在 2026 年將保持相對穩定的表現。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 11. Our 2026 guidance reflects the market dynamics we've discussed and operational excellence driven by our business operating system. It also incorporates our value creation flywheel, continued investment in innovation, market outgrowth, healthy leverage, and strong free cash flow. We are initiating 2026 guidance with 6% to 7% organic revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $14.65 to $14.85, up 12% to 14%. We expect about 50 basis points of growth from FX and roughly 200 basis points from M&A, either closed or committed for early 2026. All in, reported revenue growth is expected to be 8.5% to 9.5%.

謝謝你，戴夫。請翻到第11頁投影片。我們的 2026 年業績指引反映了我們討論過的市場動態以及由我們的業務營運系統驅動的卓越營運。它還包含了我們的價值創造飛輪、對創新的持續投資、市場成長、健康的槓桿率和強勁的自由現金流。我們首次發布 2026 年業績指引，預計有機收入將成長 6% 至 7%，調整後每股收益為 14.65 美元至 14.85 美元，成長 12% 至 14%。我們預計外匯市場將帶來約 50 個基點的成長，併購活動（無論是已完成的還是已承諾的）將在 2026 年初帶來約 200 個基點的成長。總體而言，報告顯示的收入成長預計為 8.5% 至 9.5%。

We are targeting organic leverage of 25% or higher, consistent with our long-term framework and free cash flow conversion of 100% or greater. For the first quarter, we expect flattish organic revenue growth, reflecting continued strength in Commercial HVAC, offset by tough comps in residential, given the high teens growth we saw in Q1 2025 and market-driven declines in Transport. We expect Q1 adjusted EPS of approximately $2.50.

我們的目標是實現 25% 或更高的有機槓桿率，這與我們的長期框架相符，並且自由現金流轉換率達到 100% 或更高。我們預計第一季有機收入成長將保持平穩，這反映了商用暖通空調業務的持續強勁，但住宅業務的同比基數較高，抵消了這一增長。這是因為我們在 2025 年第一季看到了住宅業務兩位數以上的成長，以及運輸業務受市場因素影響而出現的下滑。我們預計第一季調整後每股收益約為 2.50 美元。

Importantly, over the past four years, Q1 has averaged slightly below 17% of full year EPS, which aligns with our 2026 guidance. Given the dynamics we've outlined, we believe this is a strong and achievable start to the year. For additional details, please refer to slide 18.

值得注意的是，過去四年，第一季平均佔全年每股收益的 17%，這與我們對 2026 年的預期相符。鑑於我們概述的這些動態，我們認為這將是今年一個強勁且可實現的開局。更多詳情請參閱第 18 頁投影片。

Please turn to slide number 12. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy, focused on deploying excess cash to maximize shareholder returns. First, we strengthened our core business through relentless reinvestment. Second, we maintain a strong balance sheet to ensure optionality as markets evolve. Third, we expect to deploy 100% of excess cash over time.

請翻到第12張投影片。我們將繼續堅持均衡的資本配置策略，專注於利用盈餘現金實現股東回報最大化。首先，我們透過持續不斷的再投資加強了核心業務。其次，我們保持穩健的資產負債表，以確保在市場變化時擁有選擇權。第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移，將 100% 的盈餘現金投入使用。

Our approach includes strategic M&A to enhance long-term returns and share repurchases when the stock trades below our calculated intrinsic value.

我們的方法包括策略性併購以提高長期回報，以及在股票交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值時進行股票回購。

Please turn to slide 13. In 2025, we deployed or committed approximately $3.2 billion through our balanced capital allocation strategy, including about $840 million to dividends, $720 million to M&A, and roughly $1.5 billion to share repurchases. We advanced several strategic acquisitions during the year, and our pipeline remains active heading into 2026. The largest acquisition announced in December is Stellar Energy, a leading provider of turnkey data center cooling solutions. Stellar brings strong capability and modular design and build, positioning us to meet growing demand for prefabricated cooling systems that ease supply chain and labor constraints and enable rapid scalable deployment.

請翻到第13頁。2025 年，我們透過均衡的資本配置策略投入或承諾投入約 32 億美元，其中包括約 8.4 億美元用於分紅，7.2 億美元用於併購，以及約 15 億美元用於股票回購。今年我們推進了幾項策略性收購，並且我們的收購計劃在 2026 年仍然活躍。12 月宣布的最大一筆收購是 Stellar Energy，該公司是領先的交鑰匙資料中心冷卻解決方案提供商。Stellar 擁有強大的能力和模組化設計與建造技術，使我們能夠滿足日益增長的預製冷卻系統需求，從而緩解供應鏈和勞動力限制，並實現快速可擴展的部署。

Their expertise also enhances our ability to apply modular solutions across additional verticals. We expect the acquisition to close in the first quarter, and we look forward to welcoming the team to Trane Technologies. The deal economics are compelling, and we expect modest EPS accretion in 2026, even after year 1 acquisition and integration costs.

他們的專業知識也增強了我們在更多垂直領域應用模組化解決方案的能力。我們預計此次收購將於第一季完成，我們期待歡迎團隊加入特靈科技。該交易的經濟效益令人信服，我們預計即使扣除第一年的收購和整合成本，2026 年每股收益也將略有成長。

For 2026, we expect to deploy between $2.8 billion and $3.3 billion, with strong free cash flow, ample liquidity, a healthy balance sheet, and $4.7 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization, we have excellent capital allocation optionality moving forward.

預計 2026 年將投入 28 億美元至 33 億美元，憑藉強勁的自由現金流、充足的流動性、健康的資產負債表以及剩餘的 47 億美元股票回購授權，我們未來擁有極佳的資本配置選擇權。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 15. The Americas Transport Refrigeration market remains dynamic, but the long-term outlook is strong. ACT forecasts the trailer market down about 7% in 2026, bottoming in the first half and improving in the back half. ACT also expects a sharp rebound beginning in 2027, including roughly 50% growth and continued expansion through the end of the decade.

謝謝你，克里斯。請翻到第15頁投影片。美洲運輸冷凍市場仍充滿活力，但長期前景強勁。ACT 預測，2026 年拖車市場將下降約 7%，上半年觸底，下半年有所改善。ACT 也預計，從 2027 年開始將出現強勁反彈，成長約 50%，並持續擴張至本十年末。

We expect growth as well, but anticipate a more measured gradual slope to the recovery. We're managing the down cycle effectively, outperforming end markets and continuing to invest in innovation, so we're well positioned as the market strengthens.

我們也預期會有成長，但預計復甦的步伐會更加平穩緩慢。我們有效應對了經濟下行週期，績效優於終端市場，並持續投資於創新，因此隨著市場走強，我們已做好充分準備。

Please turn to slide number 16. In closing, I'm incredibly proud of our global team. Third talent has powered our consistent outperformance and leading financial results over the past five years. And we see tremendous opportunities ahead. With our exceptional backlog, strong demand, proven business operating system, and leading innovation, we're confident in our ability to deliver differentiated long-term value and advance a more sustainable world.

請翻到第16張投影片。最後，我為我們的全球團隊感到無比自豪。過去五年，第三大人才助力我們持續取得優異業績和領先的財務成果。我們看到了未來巨大的機會。憑藉我們卓越的訂單儲備、強勁的需求、成熟的業務運營體系和領先的創新能力，我們有信心提供差異化的長期價值，並推進一個更永續的世界。

And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

（操作說明）朱利安·米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe just wanted to start with Americas Commercial HVAC, just to understand the guidance on revenue for the year ahead. Because I guess if I look at the orders or bookings there last year, they were up maybe 10% in the first half, up in the 30s in the back half. So with lead times and so forth, should we expect a decent acceleration in Americas Commercial HVAC revenue growth in the back half of the year ahead?

或許只是想先從美洲商業暖通空調業務著手，了解未來一年的收入預期。因為我覺得，如果我看去年的訂單或預訂量，上半年可能成長了 10%，下半年成長了 30% 以上。考慮到交貨週期等因素，我們是否可以預期美洲商業暖通空調收入在今年下半年會顯著成長？

Julian, it's Chris. I'll start and then Dave will jump in. That's right. I mean think about the very strong bookings growth in the second half of 2025 in Commercial HVAC. The first half was strong, up mid-teens, but we saw up about 30% -- over 30% in the second half of 2025.

朱利安，我是克里斯。我先開始，然後戴夫再加入。這是正確的。我的意思是，想想2025年下半年商用暖通空調產業的強勁預訂成長。上半年表現強勁，成長了十幾個百分點，但我們在 2025 年下半年看到了約 30% 的成長——超過 30%。

And when you think about Applied Systems, not uncommon to think about a 9-month cycle from order date to ship dates. So how we see 2026 playing out for Commercial HVAC Americas is the first quarter strong growth, probably about 7% to 8% range, second quarter grows to about 10% growth, and then it is up about low teens in the second half of the year. And we've dialed that in with the backlog and the timing of which when customers want us to deliver the products.

提到應用系統公司，人們通常會想到從下單到出貨需要 9 個月的時間週期。因此，我們對 2026 年美洲商業暖通空調市場的發展趨勢預測是：第一季強勁成長，可能在 7% 到 8% 之間；第二季成長到 10% 左右；然後下半年成長到 10% 左右。我們已經根據積壓訂單和客戶希望我們交付產品的時間安排，對此進行了調整。

Julian, it's Dave. I think, as Chris described in the Americas, it's a very similar story that we see in Europe, okay? So in Europe, think of the first half of the year, orders were up high single digits. To the back half of the year, they were up high teens. So the same is exactly happening as to how our backlog, which is at record levels, is layered in.

朱利安，我是戴夫。我認為，正如克里斯在美洲所描述的那樣，我們在歐洲看到的情況非常相似，好嗎？所以，在歐洲，想想今年上半年，訂單量增加了接近兩位數。下半年，他們的得分都達到了十幾分。因此，我們積壓的工作量（目前處於歷史最高水準）的分層處理方式也完全一樣。

The good news also is that the pipelines in both businesses are extremely strong right now. I said that at the end of the third quarter that I've never seen this high before. And I would tell you they remain very, very robust as we enter Q1 in 2026.

好消息是，目前這兩個產業的業務管道都非常強勁。我在第三節末說過，我以前從未見過這麼高的價格。我可以告訴大家，到 2026 年第一季度，它們仍然非常非常強勁。

That's helpful. And then just my second question on US resi HVAC. Maybe help us understand the confidence in that leaning out of inventory having largely already happened. And any update you could give on pricing in that market.

那很有幫助。那麼，我的第二個問題是關於美國住宅暖通空調系統的。或許這有助於我們理解，為何人們如此​​確信庫存精簡已經基本實現。您能否提供一下該市場定價的最新資訊？

We keep being fed anecdotes from people every day about discounting. We didn't seem to hear that from an OEM peer yesterday, just wondered your perspectives on that, please.

我們每天都能從人們那裡聽到關於折扣的各種軼事。昨天我們似乎沒有從一家 OEM 同行那裡聽到這方面的說法，所以想聽聽您的看法。

Yes. I'll let Chris talk to the pricing side of it. But on the inventory side, look, we were very, very intentional in the fourth quarter to get the inventory right. And you heard in our prepared remarks, we took one-third of the production days out. So we knew that was going to cost us on the bottom line as we deleveraged over 60% in that particular business.

是的。定價方面的問題就讓克里斯來談吧。但在庫存方面，我們第四季非常非常注重庫存管理，力求做到萬無一失。正如你們在我們事先準備好的發言稿中聽到的，我們減少了三分之一的生產天數。所以我們知道，由於我們在該特定業務中去槓桿化超過 60%，這將對我們的利潤造成影響。

But we also believe that we have inventory size right as we enter 2026. So 2025 is behind us, we're looking forward and see how the year plays out. And remember, for the full year, we believe that resi will be flat to down up to 5%. We'll see how the year plays out. But we believe that inventory is in the position we want it to be, and we were very, very intentional in getting there.

但我們也相信，到 2026 年，我們的庫存規模是合適的。2025年已經過去，我們展望未來，看看這一年會如何發展。請記住，我們認為全年住宅價格將持平或下降至多 5%。我們拭目以待，看看今年會如何發展。但我們相信庫存已經達到了我們想要的狀態，而我們實現這一目標也是經過深思熟慮的。

Chris, do you want to talk about pricing?

克里斯，你想談談價格嗎？

Julian, we've not seen pricing fade in the business. If I think about the fourth quarter and pricing is really more due to volume being lower than anything else. So certainly, great products, good industry and wouldn't add anything more than that.

朱利安，我們還沒有看到這個產業的價格出現下滑趨勢。如果我回顧第四季度，就會發現價格上漲更多是因為銷售下降造成的，而不是其他原因。所以，產品很棒，產業發展良好，我沒什麼好補充的了。

Yes. The only other thing I would add, Julian, is remember, Q1 has got some really tough. So even though inventory is in a right-sized position. We still are going to have some very difficult comps with last year being up in the high teens.

是的。朱利安，我唯一要補充的是，記住，第一季的比賽非常艱難。所以即使庫存處於合適的規模。我們仍然會面臨一些非常艱難的比賽，因為去年的成績在十幾名選手中名列前茅。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

Scott Davis，Melius Research。

It's been a good quarter so far for -- or today, I guess, I should say, has been pretty good. And you guys -- I mean these orders in applied are a nice surprise. And my question just is really about whether orders are broadening out amongst your end markets, like office, education, et cetera? Or are they narrowing and more of that more of that incremental order strength is, in fact, data center?

到目前為止，這個季度過得還不錯——或者說，今天過得相當不錯。你們——我是說，這些訂單的到來真是個驚喜。我的問題其實是，訂單是否正在向你們的終端市場擴展，例如辦公室、教育等等？或者，它們是否正在縮小範圍，而這種增量訂單實力實際上是資料中心？

Yes. I mean, look, data centers are very strong, okay? But I would also tell you that if you look across the 14 verticals that we track, at least in the Americas, we had broad-based growth, which was very, very encouraging. I think we had 12 or 14 verticals up. So that's encouraging for us.

是的。我的意思是，你看，資料中心非常強大，好嗎？但我還要告訴大家，在我們追蹤的 14 個垂直領域中，至少在美洲地區，我們實現了全面成長，這非常非常令人鼓舞。我想我們當時架設了 12 或 14 根豎桿。這對我們來說是個好消息。

And -- so yes, but don't misinterpret my comments. Data centers were very strong, and they'll continue to be strong well into the future. But it is broad-based growth across the majority of our verticals that we track in commercial HVAC.

所以——是的，但請不要誤解我的意思。資料中心一直非常強大，而且在未來很長一段時間內仍將保持強大。但就商業暖通空調領域而言，我們所追蹤的大多數垂直行業都實現了全面成長。

And comparably broad, you would say, Dave, versus maybe a year ago?

戴夫，你覺得和一年前相比，現在的範圍是不是更廣了？

I have to -- I mean, I -- it's hard to say. I think we saw growth in some verticals that maybe a year ago, I was saying were weak like retail. We saw growth in retail. Office is coming back for us. So look, I'm bullish, Sean.

我必須——我的意思是，我——這很難說。我認為我們看到一些垂直領域實現了成長，而一年前，我可能還認為這些領域很疲軟，例如零售業。我們看到零售業成長。辦公室要回來了。所以你看，肖恩，我很看好這支球隊。

And the order rate is one thing. But if I look at where the pipeline is, it's also very broad-based, which is very encouraging for the future.

訂單率是一方面。但從管道佈局來看，它的基礎非常廣泛，這對未來來說是一個非常令人鼓舞的消息。

Makes sense. Okay. I'll keep it at that.

有道理。好的。我就說到這兒吧。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

I also wanted to ask about the applied orders, second straight quarter up over 100%. As we've seen this ramp in orders into the back half of the year, has there been an impact at all from changes in customer lead times? Are we starting to see customers order maybe with longer lead times again? There's some concerns out there in certain spots around supply chain pinpoint. Just wondering if that's having any impact on these -- just the massive orders we're seeing?

我還想問一下申請訂單的情況，連續第二季成長超過 100%。我們看到下半年的訂單量增加，客戶交貨週期的變化是否對此產生了影響？我們是否開始看到客戶再次接受更長的交貨週期？某些地區的供應鏈精準度存在一些問題。我只是想知道這是否會對我們看到的這些大量訂單產生影響？

Chris, this is Dave. But I would say we haven't seen that. I mean you have some verticals that will give you more of a longer view versus others. But for the most part, I haven't seen any change occurring there probably since really probably at least the last, I'll say, at least 12 months, there hasn't been a dramatic change there on lead times. We're very competitive on our lead times.

克里斯，這是戴夫。但我認為我們還沒有看到這種情況。我的意思是，有些垂直方向的視角會比其他方向的視角更開闊。但總的來說，我並沒有看到那裡發生任何變化，可能至少在過去的 12 個月裡，交貨週期方面並沒有任何劇烈的變化。我們在交貨週期方面非常有競爭力。

I told you that in the third quarter. We actually introduced a couple of quick ship programs so that sometimes you could have an emergency or you could have a contract or I forgot to order a piece of equipment, we're able to provide that now with some of our quick ship programs.

我在第三季就告訴你了。我們實際上推出了一些快速發貨計劃，這樣，有時您可能會遇到緊急情況，或者您可能要履行合同，或者我忘記訂購一件設備，我們現在可以通過一些快速發貨計劃來提供這些服務。

I appreciate that color. Maybe if I could follow up on data center, but specifically on the service side. As that the architecture there continues to change, obviously very rapidly. Are the attachment rates in that business better than they were, say, five or seven years ago as they maybe more so relying on you guys to do a lot of that service? Just given how fast things are changing relative to a decade ago?

我喜歡這個顏色。或許我可以跟進資料中心方面的工作，特別是服務方面。那裡的建築也在不斷變化，而且變化速度非常快。該行業的附加率是否比五年前或七年前有所提高，因為他們可能更依賴你們來提供很多服務？考慮到與十年前相比，現在的變化速度有多快？

Yes. I think for sure, okay. Obviously, hyperscalers or [colos], they want the OEM to be doing the service work, okay? I think what's changing is the size of these data center fields or farms as they referred to, are quite large. So we're seeing more dedicated resources to a particular data center.

是的。我覺得肯定沒問題。顯然，超大規模資料中心營運商或託管資料中心營運商希望由原始設備製造商 (OEM) 來提供服務工作，對吧？我認為正在改變的是這些資料中心領域或他們所說的「農場」的規模，它們非常龐大。因此，我們看到越來越多的資源被專門用於特定的資料中心。

But I would say for sure, if you go back, like, say, a decade ago, I don't think our attachment rate was nearly what it is today. In fact, I'd be hard-pressed to think where we've done a major chiller farm where we haven't had the service agreements.

但我可以肯定地說，如果你回顧十年前，我認為我們的依戀率遠不如今天那麼高。事實上，我很難想到我們建造的大型冷水機組中，有哪個項目沒有簽訂服務協議。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Dave and Chris, you had some margin pressure in Q4 in Americas and Europe. You explained it well. A lot of it was resi deleveraging in Americas and European investment. But maybe you could talk about how to think about segment incrementals in the context of your normal expected 25%-plus. Does European margins start to turn down more positive in '26 given its backlog?

Dave 和 Chris，你們在第四季在美洲和歐洲的利潤率都面臨一些壓力。你解釋得很好。其中很多是美洲地區的居民去槓桿化和歐洲的投資。但或許您可以談談如何在您通常預期成長 25% 以上的背景下考慮細分市場的增量。鑑於歐洲的訂單積壓情況，其利潤率在 2026 年是否會開始改善？

And how should we think about your overall price/cost dynamics given recently higher commodity costs?

鑑於近期大宗商品價格上漲，我們該如何看待你們的整體價格/成本動態？

Andy, on the 25% or better incrementals for 2026, you know us well, that's certainly where we like to start the year, and it gives us a lot of flexibility to make investments. We view each one of our segments, so the Americas, EMEA, and Asia, all to be delivering 25% or better organic incrementals in 2026. Reported incrementals, they'll have about a 700 basis points lower impact than organic, and that's really just the result of M&A coming into the year at a starting point of lower margins, which gives us a great opportunity to grow those margins over time. So 25% plus across each of the segments for the year.

安迪，關於 2026 年 25% 或更高的增量目標，你很了解我們，這當然是我們喜歡在年初設定的目標，而且這給了我們很大的投資彈性。我們認為，到 2026 年，我們的每個細分市場，包括美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲以及亞洲，都將實現 25% 或更高的有機成長。報告的增量，其影響將比有機增長低約 700 個基點，這實際上只是因為併購活動年初的利潤率較低，這給了我們隨著時間的推移提高利潤率的絕佳機會。因此，全年各細分市場均成長 25% 以上。

I think about price cost in the guide of the 6% to 7% organic, think of pricing is around 1.5 points for the year. We've had a very proven and strong track record of staying ahead of inflation. It's our current view around inflation and tariffs today. And at the same time, we have to remain very nimble and dynamic given input costs. So confident that, that 1.5 points of price would be in a position to drive the 20 to 30 basis points of margin growth as we go into any year, thinking about price versus inflation, but will remain dynamic.

我認為，在有機產品佔 6% 到 7% 的指導方針中，價格成本大約是每年 1.5 個百分點。我們在控制通膨方面有著非常可靠且強勁的業績記錄。這是我們目前對通貨膨脹和關稅的看法。同時，考慮到投入成本，我們必須保持非常靈活和動態。我們非常有信心，1.5 個百分點的價格變動將推動每年 20 至 30 個基點的利潤率成長，考慮到價格與通貨膨脹的關係​​，但價格變動仍將保持動態性。

Helpful, Chris. And then Dave, maybe you could talk a little more about your positioning in the data center market. I think the Stellar acquisition is going to help you a lot. But how is Trane adapting in thermal management as it adapts to maybe a little more liquid cooling? And then obviously, there were some comments a few weeks ago from one of your data center partners. So you could opine on their comments, water chillers versus air chillers and so on.

謝謝你，克里斯。然後，Dave，或許你可以再多談談你在資料中心市場的定位。我認為收購Stellar對你們會有很大的幫助。但是，隨著特靈公司逐漸採用更多液冷技術，其熱管理方面又將如何調整呢？顯然，幾週前你們的一家資料中心合作夥伴也發表了一些評論。所以你可以對他們的評論發表意見，例如水冷式冷水機與風冷式冷水機的比較等等。

Yes. Well, thanks for the question, Andy. Look, at the end of the day, we've been very strong in the data center vertical for decades, and we're going to be very strong in the future. And the short answer to your question is, we see chillers in the data center vertical well into the future. But let me take a step back.

是的。謝謝你的提問，安迪。歸根究底，幾十年來我們在資料中心領域一直非常強大，未來也將繼續保持強大。簡而言之，我們認為冷卻器在資料中心領域將在未來很長一段時間內繼續發揮作用。但讓我先退一步說。

Look, we're working very closely with many influencers in the data center vertical. So think of hyperscalers, think of chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and others, okay? And we're helping them design data centers of the future or you may have heard them refer to as reference designed data centers. And think of these data centers as the data centers that will be built maybe two to four years out. And when we're sitting with these customers, we're bringing our expertise around the thermal management system to the discussions. And I have not seen a reference design or data center of the future that does not include chillers, just to be very clear.

你看，我們正與資料中心領域的許多有影響力人士密切合作。所以想想超大規模資料中心營運商，想想像英偉達這樣的晶片製造商等等，好嗎？我們正在幫助他們設計未來的資料中心，或者您可能聽說過他們稱之為參考設計資料中心。不妨把這些資料中心想像成未來兩到四年內將會建置的資料中心。當我們與這些客戶坐下來討論時，我們會將我們在熱管理系統方面的專業知識運用到討論中。需要明確的是，我還沒有見過任何不包含冷卻器的未來參考設計或資料中心。

Now I think that when we talk about some of these future designs, you're going to see a lot of innovation around the thermal management system, specifically around the chiller that is really exciting. I won't talk about in too much detail here for obvious reasons. But this is -- I mean, this is fun. I mean when you sit out in these rooms and our engineers are very detailed on this, but it's just you get really creative ideas. We have a lot of these new innovations in the pipeline.

現在我認為，當我們談論這些未來的設計時，你會看到圍繞熱管理系統，特別是圍繞冷卻器的許多創新，這真的令人興奮。出於顯而易見的原因，我在這裡就不贅述了。但這——我的意思是，這很有趣。我的意思是，當你坐在這些房間裡，我們的工程師對此非常細緻，但你卻能從中獲得許多創意的想法。我們正在研發很多這樣的創新技術。

Some of them are actually still being in the modeling stage because they're so futuristic in thought process. But I want everyone to realize that Trane Technologies is at the forefront of this innovation, and we're helping our customers think through what's possible. And I'll conclude with we've been very strong in the data center vertical for decades, and we're going to continue to be very, very strong well into the future.

有些設計實際上仍處於建模階段，因為它們的思維方式非常具有未來感。但我希望大家都能意識到，特靈科技正處於這項創新的前沿，我們正在幫助我們的客戶思考各種可能性。最後我想說，幾十年來，我們在資料中心領域一直非常強大，而且在未來很長一段時間內，我們將繼續保持非常強大的實力。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

阿米特·梅赫羅特拉，瑞銀集團。

Dave, I just wanted to follow up on that point because I don't think people are debating whether a chiller will be in a data center in the future. I think the question really is about how much you need to run it and do run times get affected and do you need as many of them? And so I appreciate if you can just address that point, particularly also how Trane is positioned in an environment where chillers run less or needed less. Because on one side, you're working with NVIDIA to create this reference design. And the other side, one of the main value products you saw in that market, you could just need less of them or run less. I mean I don't know if you disagree with that, but I'd love your perspective on it.

Dave，我只是想就這一點補充一下，因為我認為人們並沒有在爭論未來資料中心是否會配備冷卻器。我認為真正的問題在於你需要運行多少次，運行時間是否會受到影響，以及你是否需要那麼多次運行？所以，如果您能就這一點進行說明，我將不勝感激，特別是關於在冷水機組運行減少或需求減少的環境中，Trane 的市場定位。因為一方面，你們正在與 NVIDIA 合作創建這個參考設計。另一方面，你在市場上看到的主要價值產品之一，你可能需要減少它們的數量或減少它們的運作量。我不知道你是否同意我的觀點，但我很想聽聽你的看法。

Well, I do. I mean I think first of all, I mean think about a data center farm in the future, think about free cooling being built in to the data center, okay? So you'll have make up another 100 chillers, they'll have free cooling capability. To run free cooling, you'll obviously be running the fans. We could debate how often you're going to run the compressor side of the thermal management system there. But you will definitely be running the fans through the free cooling cycle.

嗯，我確實有。我的意思是，首先，想想未來的資料中心集群，想想資料中心內部內建的免費冷卻系統，好嗎？所以你還需要再製造 100 台冷水機，它們將具備自然冷卻能力。要實現自然散熱，顯然需要啟動風扇。我們可以討論一下，你打算多久運行一次熱管理系統的壓縮機側。但你肯定會讓風扇進行自由冷卻循環。

How you manage that is going to be very important in the future. And I'm trying to be sensitive here to some of the innovation that you're going to see coming in the future. But chillers are mechanical systems. They are not a lot different than maybe your car. So you don't leave your car in the garage for six months and don't run it because if you did, you may not be very happy when you go out to try to start it up. So these systems do need to run at some point and so we're working through that equation.

你如何處理這件事在未來將非常重要。我在這裡努力關註一下未來將會出現的一些創新。但冷水機組是機械系統。它們和你的車並沒有太大區別。所以你不會把車停在車庫裡六個月都不開，因為如果你這麼做了，當你出去嘗試啟動它時，你可能會很不高興。所以這些系統總得在某個時候運作起來，因此我們正在努力解決這個問題。

The other side of it is, do you need more or less. I think at the end of the day, you have a thermal load that you have to be able to size for the size of the data center. So the answer is you're still going to have the same number the frequency of which the compressor side runs will be -- it will vary but -- which could impact the services side as to how often you service these pieces of equipment. And to be fair, we're still modeling that based on different innovations that are coming in the future.

另一方面，你需要更多還是更少？我認為歸根結底，你必須能夠根據資料中心的規模來確定其熱負荷。所以答案是，壓縮機側運行的頻率仍然會保持不變——雖然會有所不同——但這可能會影響到維護方面，也就是你多久維護一次這些設備。公平地說，我們仍在根據未來可能出現的各種創新進行建模。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just maybe more tactically, Chris. The organic growth target is 6.5%. Obviously, it's an acceleration in '25, but not as much of an acceleration. Is that maybe I would have expected given resi is kind of flattish to down. You've got probably applied equipment and services, maintaining not accelerating growth, just given the strength of the orders. Is that a fair assumption? I know you guys like to be conservative out of the gate and give yourself cushion, especially given the uncertainty of last year and what happened, but maybe you'd push back to me thing, it's not actually that conservative based on some puts and takes that you think of?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。然後，或許從戰術層面來說，克里斯。有機成長目標為 6.5%。顯然，25 年的成長速度有所加快，但加快的幅度卻沒有那麼大。考慮到房地產市場整體呈現平坦甚至下降的趨勢，這或許也在意料之中。您可能已經投入資金購買設備和服務，維持而非加速成長，這僅僅是因為訂單量強勁。這種假設合理嗎？我知道你們喜歡一開始就採取保守策略，給自己留出緩衝空間，尤其是在經歷了去年的不確定性和發生的事情之後。但是，你們可能會反駁我的觀點，根據你們考慮的一些買賣點，這其實並不是那麼保守？

Yes. I mean, Amit, we like to set guidance where we can meet it or exceed it. And so that's where we're starting here in January with a lot of flexibility to react to conditions that may present themselves. We don't know today. The guidance range on the 6% to 7% on the full year organic, it's got Americas Commercially HVAC up about 10%.

是的。我的意思是，Amit，我們喜歡設定目標，並且努力達到甚至超越它。因此，這就是我們一月份的出發點，我們擁有很大的彈性來應對可能出現的情況。我們今天還不知道。全年有機成長預期在 6% 到 7% 之間，美洲商業暖通空調產業成長了約 10%。

And again, we think that's a very strong growth for that business. And maybe a derisked outlook when you think about residential, we described it as flat to down 5%. Transport markets and residential markets trough in the first half and then much easier comps in the second half of the year. But Transport, we're expecting to be flat to down low single digits with markets down in the high single digits will outperform.

我們再次認為，這對該業務來說是一個非常強勁的成長。考慮到住宅市場，我們預測其前景將趨於平穩或下降 5%，因此風險可能會降低。交通運輸市場和住宅市場在上半年處於低谷，然後下半年的同比基數要低得多。但交通運輸板塊預計持平或下跌個位數百分比，而下跌個位數百分比以上的市場板塊將表現優於其他板塊。

So I think it's a reasonable start to the year. We have a lot of confidence in delivering on the results like we would any time here in January. And when you think about transport and residential, they're making up around 25%, 30% of the portfolio that we're not baking in much growth for on a full year basis. So we expect that they will improve in the second half on easier comps. We've got great teams and innovations. We keep leaning into both of those portfolios, and we'll see how the year kind of plays out, but we have a lot of confidence in the guide that we just put out today.

所以我認為這是一個不錯的開年。我們非常有信心能夠取得像往年一月份一樣的好成績。而當你考慮到交通和住宅領域時，它們約占我們投資組合的 25% 到 30%，但我們並沒有在全年預期中實現太多成長。因此我們預計他們在下半季面對較輕鬆的對手時會表現得更好。我們擁有優秀的團隊和創新成果。我們繼續重視這兩個投資組合，看看今年的情況如何，但我們對今天發布的這份指南非常有信心。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Just a question on residential in the first quarter. I think the scope of sort of under absorption in the fourth quarter was a little bit surprising to us. At the same time, you commented that residential market was better in the fourth quarter. How should we think about under absorption relative to sort of normal operating leverage in Americas in Q1 of '26?

請問一下第一季的住宅市場狀況。我認為第四季吸收不足的程度讓我們有點意外。同時，您也提到第四季住宅市場情況有所改善。我們該如何看待 2026 年第一季美洲地區相對於正常經營槓桿而言的吸收不足問題？

I'll let Chris talk about the unobserved, but let me just clarify a few things. I'm not sure the market was a lot stronger in the fourth quarter. I think we were stronger in the fourth quarter on resi. And I would also tell you, Andrew, that we were very, very intentional in taking these days out. So it's not -- it wasn't necessarily a surprise to us to deleverage.

關於未被觀察到的現象，就讓克里斯來談談吧，不過我先澄清幾點。我不確定第四季市場是否強勁得多。我認為我們在第四節的防守表現更強。我還要告訴你，安德魯，我們特意安排了這幾天的假期。所以，去槓桿化對我們來說並不意外。

We kind of had that baked into our models. But we wanted to get this behind us, and we believe it's behind us now. So I don't know, Chris, do you want to talk about Q1 leverage.

我們的模型中其實已經包含了這一點。但我們希望這件事能盡快過去，而且我們相信現在已經過去了。所以，克里斯，我不知道，你想談談第一季的槓桿率嗎？

Sure. We've got residential in our guide in the first quarter, down about 20%. Reminder, the business was up in the high teens in the first quarter of last year, and that drove strong volume growth. For Q1, look, we're still very much in a shoulder season for residential. We'd expect the deleverage in the first quarter to be better than the deleverage we saw in the fourth quarter.

當然。我們第一季的指導方針顯示，住宅市場下降了約 20%。提醒一下，去年第一季業務成長了兩位數以上，這推動了銷量的強勁成長。就第一季而言，我們仍然處於住宅銷售的淡季。我們預期第一季的去槓桿化程度將優於第四季的去槓桿化程度。

To Dave's point, we intentionally took production days out and that had the strongest impact on roughly 60% deleverage in the fourth quarter. So think about the first quarter, residential deleveraging within gross margins. We've got level-loaded production assumptions through the first quarter. We've got inventory we believe, at the right level in the channel. And then let's see how the year kind of plays out.

正如戴夫所說，我們特意減少了生產日，這對第四季約 60% 的去槓桿化產生了最顯著的影響。所以想想第一季度，住宅業務在毛利率方面的去槓桿化。我們對第一季的生產假設是均衡的。我們相信，我們目前的庫存水準在渠道中處於合適水準。然後，讓我們看看這一年會如何發展。

But I think we really tried to, as one person noted, take the medicine in the fourth quarter as best we could and then set ourselves up well for 2026.

但我認為，正如一位人士所指出的那樣，我們確實盡力在第四季度接受治療，然後為 2026 年做好充分準備。

And just -- I know there's a lot of focus on data centers at a vertical, but at the same time, there are a lot of announcement about biopharma reshoring. And clearly, one of your key verticals, can you tell us what it is you are seeing in terms of biopharma reshoring? How real it is? How excited should we get about it into '26? And how much visibility do you have from your customers into '26 and '27?

而且——我知道垂直產業非常關注資料中心，但同時，也有很多關於生物製藥企業回流的消息。顯然，生物製藥是你們的關鍵垂直領域之一，你能否告訴我們，在生物製藥回流方面，你們看到了什麼？它有多真實？我們應該對2026年抱有多大的期待？您對客戶在 2026 年和 2027 年的預期了解多少？

It's a great question, Andrew. I mean -- I said earlier that we had 12 or 14 verticals that were positive. One of the verticals that was not positive was life science, okay? So -- but if I look at the pipeline of activity, yes, we see some of those large pharma projects that are set for reshoring, I said, in the pipeline. We're optimistic, but we'll see how they play out.

安德魯，你問得好。我的意思是——我之前說過，我們有 12 或 14 個垂直數據為正。生命科學領域是其中一個表現不佳的垂直領域，懂嗎？所以——但是如果我看一下正在進行的項目，是的，我們看到一些大型製藥項目即將回流，我說，這些項目都在進行中。我們持樂觀態度，但也要看看結果如何。

But we are all over tracking some of those large projects that are in this classification of mega projects. But we're hopeful that some of those actually come to reality here in the near term.

但我們正在密切關註一些屬於超級專案範疇的大型專案。但我們希望其中一些設想能在不久的將來成為現實。

Andrew, I'll add on the $7.8 billion of backlog that we finished 2025 with, there's a bit over $1 billion of backlog that's for 2027 and beyond. That's up more than 30% versus a year ago, and it reflects multiple verticals, let me be clear. But again, entering 2026 with a stronger backlog than '25 and certainly building backlog already for '27 and beyond.

安德魯，我還要補充一點，加上我們 2025 年底積壓的 78 億美元訂單，還有 10 億美元多一點的訂單是 2027 年及以後的。與一年前相比，這一數字增長了 30% 以上，而且這反映在多個垂直領域，這一點我必須明確指出。但再次強調，進入 2026 年，訂單積壓情況比 2025 年更糟，而且肯定已經在為 2027 年及以後積累訂單了。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Dave, I want to start by going back to the commentary from NVIDIA that you've elaborated on a bit today. If you think about the HVAC content and the data center. So whatever fraction of every dollar spent on a data center today that you would attribute to HVAC? And then you think about the 2- to 4-year road map where you're in discussions already. When we're two to four years out, do you think that fraction is higher, lower, about the same as today?

Dave，我想先回到你今天詳細闡述的NVIDIA的評論。如果你考慮一下暖通空調系統和資料中心的內容。那麼，如今資料中心每花費一美元，您認為其中有多少比例用於暖通空調系統？然後，你會想到你們已經在討論的2到4年的發展路線圖。展望未來兩到四年，你認為這個比例會比現在更高、更低還是差不多？

Yes. I'm going to on the side of saying it's probably about the same, okay? You got to look at the whole thermal management system, and that's one of the advantages that we bring to these conversations as we do look at the whole thermal management system. I think the amount of power that is being consumed by the thermal management system may be less, okay? So think of it as a trade-off between you will still need the thermal management system, how often it runs or the power that it consumes may be less.

是的。我傾向於認為兩者可能差不多，好嗎？你必須從整個熱管理系統的角度來看待問題，而這正是我們在這些討論中帶來的優勢之一，因為我們會從整個熱管理系統的角度來看問題。我認為散熱管理系統消耗的電力可能會減少，可以嗎？所以你可以把它看作是一種權衡：你仍然需要散熱管理系統，但它的運作頻率或功耗可能會降低。

Therefore, you'll have the opportunity to do more computing within the data center, right, if that makes sense. So those are the conversations that are happening where -- how do we redirect some of the power over to the computing side versus running the thermal management system.

因此，你將有機會在資料中心內進行更多計算，對吧？如果這樣說你能理解的話。所以，目前正在進行的討論是——我們如何將部分功率轉移到計算端，而不是用於運行散熱管理系統。

That's very helpful, Dave. I also wanted to ask a follow-up on resi pricing. Chris, I think earlier you said you have not seen it fade. I'm curious as you dialed in your outlook for sales this year flat to down 5%. Does that assume some incremental price realization in '26?

這很有幫助，戴夫。我還想進一步詢問住宅定價方面的問題。克里斯，我記得你之前說過你沒有看到它褪色。我很好奇，您是如何將今年的銷售預期調整為持平或下降 5% 的。這是否意味著 2026 年價格會有所上漲？

And if the answer there is yes, do you feel like you're pricing plus/minus in line with other major players in the market there?

如果答案是肯定的，您是否覺得您的定價策略與其他主要市場參與者的定價策略一致？

Tommy, I don't want to get in front of our residential team in terms of their plans for pricing. So I won't comment specifically there. But the flat to down 5% residential for the full year on a dollar basis. It assumes some level of price, whether it be new price increases or any carryovers from last year. And then we'll see how the year plays out. It's rough estimates at this point in time. It's probably a modestly lower year to flat on pricing. We'll see how that plays out.

湯米，我不想在定價計劃方面搶在我們住宅團隊的前面。所以我不會就此發表具體評論。但全年住宅價格以美元計算將下降 5%。它假設存在一定的價格水平，無論是新的價格上漲還是去年的價格延續。然後我們再看看這一年會如何發展。目前這只是粗略估計。今年的價格可能會略有下降或持平。我們拭目以待。

Noah Kaye, Oppenheimer.

諾亞凱，奧本海默。

I'd like to pick up on the broad Commercial HVAC strength. In the past, I think the split of orders backlog is maybe skewed a little bit more towards retrofit. We're seeing some new construction indicators picking up. So how should we think about new build versus retrofit split as relative drivers of the '26 outlook? And to what extent, if any, the back half acceleration ties into new construction?

我想重點談談商用暖通空調領域的強大實力。過去，我認為訂單積壓的比例可能稍微偏向改造項目。我們看到一些新的建築指標正在回升。那麼，我們該如何看待新建案與改造工程在 2026 年前景的相對影響因素呢？後半段的加速發展在多大程度上與新建工程有關？

Yes. I mean I think you need to look at it by vertical, Noah. So certainly, in the data center vertical, there's a lot of new construction almost all. But then when you get back into some of the other core verticals, it's very similar to what we've seen in the past. And it makes a lot of sense, right?

是的。我的意思是，諾亞，我覺得你需要從垂直的角度來看這個問題。所以可以肯定的是，在資料中心領域，幾乎到處都在進行新的建設。但當你回到其他一些核心垂直領域時，你會發現情況與我們過去看到的情況非常相似。這很有道理，對吧？

I mean, I always tell people look out your window and how many buildings do you see versus how many cranes do you see. And you'll realize that the majority of our business is focused on the honey retrofit versus new construction. But really -- you got to really -- your question is a great one. Just look at it by different verticals and you may get a different answer, okay?

我的意思是，我總是告訴人們看看窗外，你能看到多少棟大樓，又能看到多少台起重機。你會發現，我們的大部分業務都集中在蜂蜜水池改造上，而不是新建案。但說真的——你真的得承認——你的問題問得很好。換個角度來看，你可能會得到不同的答案，好嗎？

Yes. Very fair. I want to ask you about Stellar Energy. I guess just how much overlap is there in the customer base today? And maybe can you talk a little bit about kind of key points of differentiation around what this adds to your capabilities?

是的。非常公平。我想問你關於恆星能源公司（Stellar Energy）的事情。我想了解一下，如今客戶群究竟有多少重疊部分？您能否談談這項技術在提升貴公司能力上有哪些關鍵的差異化優勢？

Yes. I mean, look, I think -- sure, there's some overlap. But at the end of the day, think of Stellar Energy as being able to build modular chiller plants. And I mean -- so just -- and then these modular chiller plants get assembled on a job site like LEGOs. And so you're reducing the amount of skilled labor required on the job site, you're moving that back to the factory.

是的。我的意思是，你看，我認為——當然，這其中肯定有一些重疊之處。但歸根究底，你可以把 Stellar Energy 看作是能夠建造模組化冷水機組的公司。我的意思是——就是這樣——然後這些模組化冷水機組就像樂高積木一樣在施工現場組裝起來。這樣一來，你就減少了工地所需的熟練勞動力數量，把這些勞動力轉移回了工廠。

You're testing these systems in a different way in a factory versus what you would do at a job site. So again, that's a benefit as well. Look, they're predominantly right now in the data center vertical, but we see a lot of opportunities for this modular concept in core verticals as well. I think we're all aware of the skilled labor shortages and potential -- and the potential that, that has to slow projects up, where modular designs are going to become -- they're very attractive today, but I think they're going to become even more attractive in other verticals than just the data center vertical.

在工廠測試這些系統的方式與在施工現場測試這些系統的方式不同。所以，這也是一項優勢。你看，它們目前主要應用於資料中心領域，但我們也看到這種模組化概念在核心垂直領域中有很多機會。我認為我們都意識到了熟練勞動力短缺和潛在的問題——以及這可能會減慢專案進度，模組化設計將會變得——它們現在非常有吸引力，但我認為它們在資料中心以外的其他垂直領域會變得更有吸引力。

Yes. And that cross-sell is an opportunity for you.

是的。而這種交叉銷售對你來說就是一個機會。

Regina, before you go to the next speaker, let me just clarify a plan. I don't want to confuse anybody. Resi down up to 5% in 2026. It's really driven by volumes. We'll see where pricing ultimately falls out.

雷吉娜，在你開始下一位發言人工作之前，讓我先澄清一下計畫。我不想讓任何人感到困惑。2026年房價下跌幅度最高可達5%。這完全是由成交量驅動的。我們拭目以待，看看最終價格會如何定下來。

I don't want anyone to think that pricing is coming down in that market. The impact may be less than what we saw in 2025 with significant pricing, but we'll see. But it's really, really volumes coming down that makes up that. I don't want to intimate that we know pricing is coming down. Thank you.

我不想讓任何人認為那個市場的價格會下降。影響可能小於 2025 年價格大幅上漲的情況，但我們拭目以待。但真正造成這種情況的是銷量大幅下降。我不想暗示我們知道價格會下降。謝謝。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

Maybe just -- we talked a lot about Applied, just touched on commercial unitary orders, trends and how you see that shaping up in '26?

也許只是——我們談了很多關於應用科技的內容，也談到了商業單一訂單、趨勢以及您認為這些內容在 2026 年會如何發展？

Yes. I mean it's a great question. Look, if I go back and look at 2025, Applied was extremely strong. But unitary was positive, slightly. I guess, if I look forward to 2026, look, we have a kind of model right now as flattish for 2025.

是的。我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題。你看，如果我回顧 2025 年，Applied 的表現非常強勁。但單一制略微為正。我想，如果我展望 2026 年，你看，我們現在對 2025 年的預測比較穩定。

We'll see how that is out as the year progresses. But -- and again, it really depends on different growth rates that we're going to see in different verticals because some are more apt to have unitary product for Applied systems. But right now, to answer your question, we're looking at it to be flattish in 2026.

隨著時間的推移，我們再看看情況如何。但是——而且再次強調，這實際上取決於我們將在不同垂直領域看到的成長率，因為有些垂直領域更有可能擁有應用系統的單一產品。但就目前而言，要回答你的問題，我們預計到 2026 年經濟將趨於穩定。

Okay. Great. And then just looking at your CapEx, I think you're guiding 1% to 2% of sales. You've kind of been in that 1.5% to 2% range. But just -- talk to me about what you've been doing behind the scenes to really ramp your capacity in the Applied business, just given the strength?

好的。偉大的。然後，僅從你的資本支出來看，我認為你預計支出將佔銷售額的 1% 到 2%。你一直都處於1.5%到2%的區間。但是，請您談談，鑑於目前的實力，您在幕後都做了哪些工作來真正提升應用業務的產能？

And what you need to do going forward, given all that pipeline in terms of capacity expansion for Applied? And maybe just touch on your ability to kind of continue to ramp on the labor side for the service business as well.

鑑於應用材料公司在產能擴張方面擁有如此多的專案儲備，您接下來需要做什麼？或許還可以談談您在服務業勞動力方面繼續擴大規模的能力。

Let me start, and I'll let Chris talk more about the actual dollars being spent. But look, when we think of capacity. We really break it down into three different areas, okay? One is our 4-wall capacity. And that's in our factories itself.

我先來，接下來讓克里斯詳細說說實際的支出金額。但是，想想我們考慮的容量問題。我們把它分解成三個不同的領域，好嗎？一是我們的四面牆容量。而這正是我們工廠內部的狀況。

And that's what we control. And I would tell you that we've been ramping there for a long time, and I think I told you in the third quarter call that our chiller capacity over the last two or three years is up over 4x, okay? So we've done a nice job there. And some of that's new builds. Some of that is just leaning out.

而這正是我們能夠掌控的。我想告訴你們，我們已經為此努力了很長時間，而且我想我在第三季度電話會議上告訴過你們，過去兩三年裡，我們的冷水機組產能增長了 4 倍以上，好嗎？所以，我們在那裡做得很好。其中有些是新建項目。有些只是稍微放鬆一下。

Some of that is putting in lines and reducing inventory to create space. So there's a lot of goodness that's there, and I'm very comfortable with our capacity in that space.

部分措施包括增加生產線和減少庫存以騰出空間。所以這方面有很多優勢，我對我們在這領域的能力非常有信心。

The other area we look at capacity is on our supply chain. And it's their ability could hinder us if we're not careful. So we spend a lot of time working with our supply chain partners on their capacity. And making sure that they understand what our demands are going to be in the future, understand they know kind of like the robustness that we see in our pipelines so that they can anticipate as well. So that's another bucket that we look at. And we're in good shape there. I think there's always opportunities to improve, and our team is doing a great job of making sure that we have enough capacity there as our future needs will dictate.

我們考察產能的另一個領域是供應鏈。如果我們不小心，他們的能力可能會阻礙我們。因此，我們花費大量時間與供應鏈夥伴共同探討他們的產能問題。確保他們了解我們未來的需求，了解我們管道的穩健性，以便他們也能做出預測。所以這是我們需要考慮的另一個面向。我們那邊情況良好。我認為總是有改進的空間，我們的團隊也做得很好，確保我們有足夠的產能來滿足未來的需求。

The third area that we look at is within our Service business. And there, really, it's about being able to not only do the service on this equipment, but commission the equipment. So Applied systems, we commission, right? So we go out to the -- our own employees are out there before the mechanical contractor starts these systems up. We're out there making sure that everything is perfect before we start them up.

我們關注的第三個領域是我們的服務業務。實際上，關鍵不僅在於能夠對這台設備進行維修，還在於能夠調試這台設備。所以，Applied Systems，我們委託他們進行調試，對吧？所以，在機械承包商啟動這些系統之前，我們自己的員工會先到現場檢查。我們會在啟動它們之前確保一切完美無缺。

And then we make sure that the system is operating the way it was designed before it gets turned over to the customer. And to be fair, we have over 7,500 technicians now on a global basis. So I feel very comfortable in our ability there to make sure that all these applied orders that we've been receiving. We're not only to be able to manufacture, but we're also going to be able to make sure that we can commission on the job sites. So Chris, I don't know if you want to talk about the actual capital dollars.

然後，在將系統交付給客戶之前，我們會確保系統按照設計的方式運作。公平地說，我們現在在全球擁有超過 7500 名技術人員。因此，我對我們有能力確保我們收到的所有申請訂單都能得到落實感到非常有信心。我們不僅要能夠進行生產，還要確保能夠在施工現場進行調試。克里斯，我不知道你是否想談談實際的資金數量。

Yes. I mean we remain CapEx-light in terms of intensity. You're right, Jeff. 1.5% to 2% has been the CapEx spend to revenues over the last few years, and it's been able to support all the capacity expansions we needed to do. I would add though, M&A has been a great option for us as well as we brought in businesses on air handling or industrial process cooling capacity for data centers, the M&A brings capacity as well into our four walls and then it gives us a lot of optionality as to how we want that production facility to operate what products will it run and what can we expand into that as well.

是的。我的意思是，就強度而言，我們的資本支出仍然很低。你說得對，傑夫。過去幾年，資本支出佔收入的比例一直維持在1.5%到2%之間，足以支持我們所有需要進行的產能擴張。不過我還要補充一點，併購對我們來說也是一個很好的選擇，因為我們收購了擁有數據中心空氣處理或工業過程冷卻能力的企業，併購也為我們自身帶來了產能，這讓我們在如何運營該生產設施、生產哪些產品以及我們可以擴展到哪些領域方面擁有很大的選擇權。

So it's organic and also some inorganic opportunities, we've been able to expand capacity.

所以，既有有機成長的機會，也有一些無機成長的機會，我們已經能夠擴大產能。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛集團。

So look, for all -- for good reason, there's always a focus on the US data center market. You take a look at your Commercial HVAC bookings though in EMEA, up mid-teens and some expectations that you could actually see some really robust growth in the data center market in EMEA. And I'm just wondering whether you're starting to see any of that already? And then how are you positioned geographically if things were to really accelerate?

所以你看，出於種種原因，美國資料中心市場一直備受關注。不過，看看 EMEA 地區的商業 HVAC 預訂量，成長了十幾個百分點，而且預計 EMEA 地區的資料中心市場可能會出現非常強勁的成長。我只是想知道你是否已經開始注意到這些變化了？那麼，如果情勢真的加速發展，你的地理位置又該如何定位呢？

Yes. I mean, absolutely, we see data centers really on a global basis, Joe. So it's not just in the Americas. I will tell you that the size of the data centers is dramatically different in Europe than it is here in the States. And you could almost -- I mean, the data centers that are being built in Europe are probably about one-tenth the size of what's being built, the majority of what's being built now or what's being certainly planned to be built here in the states.

是的。我的意思是，沒錯，喬，我們看到資料中心確實遍布全球。所以它不僅存在於美洲。我可以告訴你，歐洲的資料中心規模與美國的資料中心規模截然不同。而且你幾乎可以——我的意思是，歐洲正在建造的資料中心規模可能只有美國正在建造或計劃建造的資料中心的十分之一左右。

So I am hearing from some that they're going to be making much larger data centers in Europe, but we'll see how that plays out. But if it does, we're very well positioned. I mean we have incredible portfolio of products, really on a global basis. And there are nuances that you will see in the product portfolio for preferences and data centers as you start to move around the world. And my comments on Europe, you could replicate them into Asia as well because it's, again, a very similar -- Asia is actually more similar to what we're seeing in Europe right now.

我從一些人那裡聽說，他們將在歐洲建造規模更大的資料中心，但我們拭目以待。但如果真的發生這種情況，我們已經做好了非常有利的準備。我的意思是，我們擁有令人難以置信的產品組合，在全球範圍內都是如此。隨著您開始環遊世界，您會發現產品組合在偏好和資料中心方面存在一些細微差別。我對歐洲的評論，同樣也適用於亞洲，因為亞洲的情況與歐洲非常相似——實際上，亞洲的情況與我們現在在歐洲看到的情況更為相似。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess maybe then just double clicking on those orders. You mentioned your priority verticals in the Americas, most of them are seeing broad-based growth. Where are you seeing kind of like the real growth in the EMEA side of the business?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，我猜也許只需雙擊那些訂單就可以了。您提到了您在美洲的優先垂直領域，其中大多數都實現了全面成長。您認為公司在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業務真正成長的領域在哪裡？

Yes. I mean it's less -- we have less data there on the different verticals, but I would say it's, again, broad-based. We certainly see it in data centers. We certainly saw it in Commercial as well, Commercial Office that is, which is -- it's a focus area. We also see nice growth in Europe, as you would expect, in our Services business.

是的。我的意思是，不同垂直領域的數據確實較少，但我還是要說，它的基礎依然很廣泛。我們在資料中心確實能看到這種情況。我們當然也在商業領域看到了這一點，尤其是商業辦公領域，這是一個重點領域。正如您所預期的那樣，我們在歐洲的服務業務也實現了良好的成長。

It's very -- it's as broad-based as you would have in the Americas. We just have less granularity on the verticals and kind of like have a reporting mechanism on those verticals. But -- if you ever come visit us in Europe, I think you'll see us being able to play across all the verticals. And again, the direct sales force really allows us to pivot to where the opportunities are, and that's really on a global basis as well.

它非常——它的基礎非常廣泛，就像你在美洲看到的那樣。我們對各個垂直領域的劃分不夠細緻，並且對這些垂直領域建立了類似報告機制的機制。但是——如果你有機會來歐洲參觀，我想你會看到我們有能力涉足所有垂直領域。再次強調，直銷團隊確實使我們能夠靈活地抓住機遇，而這種機會在全球範圍內都適用。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

Good looking numbers here, guys. Congrats. I wonder if we could talk a little bit more about price cost. Chris, you gave some color there. But I was just kind of curious if you could kind of level set us on kind of what you absorbed on tariffs in 2025, what the wraparound might be?

各位，這些數據看起來不錯。恭喜。我想我們能不能再多談談價格成本方面的問題。克里斯，你為那裡增添了些色彩。但我只是有點好奇，您能否大致說明一下您在 2025 年吸收的關稅是多少，以及可能的補充關稅措施是什麼？

And then also just this pretty dramatic metal spike we are seeing. Gold is getting all the attention, but copper and other things have moved a lot. Just how dynamic might your pricing have to be here as we progress through 2026?

此外，我們還可以看到金屬含量出現了非常顯著的飆升。黃金吸引了所有人的目光，但銅和其他一些大宗商品的價格也出現了大幅波動。隨著我們邁入 2026 年，您的定價策略究竟需要多大的彈性？

Well, I'm hoping it's less dynamic than what it had to be in 2025, Jeff. But -- that's the power of the business operating system and the models we have to take into account all of the costs that we can see. But your specific question, just given time on tariffs, we described it about a bit higher than $140 million of tariff cost in 2025 on our last call. We're in that range for what that cost was in 2025 for the full year. And think about that wrapping into 2026.

傑夫，我希望它不會像 2025 年那樣充滿活力。但是——這就是業務作業系統和模型的強大之處，我們必須考慮到所有我們能看到的成本。但就您提出的具體問題而言，考慮到關稅問題，我們在上次通話中提到，到 2025 年，關稅成本將略高於 1.4 億美元。我們現在的估算值與 2025 年全年的成本大致相同。想想看，這種情況會持續到 2026 年。

We really have three quarters of that tariff cost in '25. Now you've got four quarters of that. So we expect it to be inflationary from a tariff perspective, maybe in that $50-ish million range in the ballpark. All in, maybe it's $200-ish million of costs that we'll make sure we price accordingly for. But the first step we do is we make sure we mitigate the tariff costs. So the numbers I'm quoting you are after mitigations. So we're continuing to work with suppliers on the short term to the long term to ultimately mitigate the costs and/or move source of supply to really not make this an area where we have to price. And if we do, we're not trying to make it a profit center.

我們實際上在 2025 年就承擔了四分之三的關稅成本。現在你已經有了四分之三。因此，我們預計從關稅角度來看，這將導致通貨膨脹，大約在 5,000 萬美元左右。全部加起來，成本可能在2億美元左右，我們會確保定價時考慮到這一點。但我們採取的第一步是確保降低關稅成本。所以我引用給你的數字是在採取緩解措施之後的。因此，我們正在繼續與供應商合作，從短期到長期，最終降低成本和/或轉移供應來源，從而真正避免在這個領域進行價格戰。即使我們這樣做，我們也不是想把它變成一個獲利中心。

On commodities, we've had a program for well over a decade in terms of how we hedge. Think of copper and aluminum in 2026. Now about half of our needs are hedged at this point. And so we'll continue to layer on hedges as we move throughout the year as we normally would. But we'll remain dynamic in terms of pricing as we see those commodities move. On steel, we have about a 6-month lock in terms of pricing. So any pricing moves there impact us beyond six months.

在商品對沖方面，我們已經實施了十多年的方案。想像一下2026年的銅和鋁。目前，我們大約一半的需求已經被滿足。因此，我們將像往常一樣，在一年中的不同時期繼續增設樹籬。但我們會根據大宗商品價格的走勢靈活調整定價策略。鋼材價格方面，我們有大約 6 個月的鎖定期。因此，那裡的任何價格變動都會對我們產生超過六個月的影響。

But I think a proven track record to stay ahead of inflation and make sure that we've got a positive on the dollars and the margins for price cost.

但我認為，要保持領先通貨膨脹，並確保美元匯率和價格成本利潤率保持正成長，需要有良好的業績記錄。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

So you said some very interesting comments. Well, first of all, I want to say well done on taking the inventory down. That's not easy, but set you up well for 2026, so well done there. Going back to the comments you made on the Services intensity for chillers and data centers. I just want to make sure I understand that correctly because obviously, these aren't running 24/7, depending on the amid temperature.

你剛才說了一些很有趣的話。首先，我要說你們清點庫存做得很好。這並不容易，但這能讓你為 2026 年做好充分準備，所以做得很好。回到您之前對冷水機組和資料中心的服務強度所做的評論。我只是想確認我的理解是否正確，因為很明顯，這些設備不會24小時不間斷運行，這取決於中間溫度。

But just could you just remind us how the service tail on Applied Systems typically looks versus upfront cost? And is that materially different for data centers, that would be an interesting comment.

能否簡單介紹一下Applied Systems的服務費用與前期成本之間的關係？那麼，資料中心的情況是否真的有所不同呢？這倒是一個值得探討的問題。

Yes. Actually, it's a great question. And I think I can tell you right now, we think of it at the [8 to 10], you've heard us say that number before in an Applied System, at least on a thermal management Applied System. In data centers, look, to be honest with you, it's probably going to be a bit lower, and some of that we're still modeling. And there's a couple of reasons for that, right?

是的。這確實是個好問題。我想我現在可以告訴你，我們認為它應該在 [8 到 10] 之間，你以前在應用系統中聽過我們說過這個數字，至少在熱管理應用系統中是如此。說實話，資料中心的情況可能會略低一些，其中一些我們仍在建模。這其中有兩個原因，對吧？

One is we could all sit there and speculate what the what the life expectancy is of a thermal management system in a data center. I know what it will run from a mechanical standpoint, and that doesn't change. But because of the efficiencies that you're going to see in the -- if you just follow the track of innovations and how we've been able to improve efficiency over the last five years, if you roll that forward to the next five years, you may start to see some of these chillers have different lives other than the data center because you switch them out to be able to get power to divert back into the computing side of the equation versus into the thermal management side. So those are some of the variables that are kind of unknown right now. But the question that came in that I would try to answer was, hey, if a chiller runs less, do you have the same service on it? And the reality of it is in a data center, think of it as a chiller -- the fan side or the air side of the chiller is going to run as it does today.

一種可能是，我們可以坐在那裡猜測資料中心熱管理系統的預期壽命是多少。我知道從機械角度來看它會如何運行，這一點不會改變。但是，由於效率的提高——如果你關注過去五年來的創新發展以及我們是如何提高效率的，並將這種趨勢延續到未來五年，你可能會發現，除了數據中心之外，這些冷卻器還能在其他領域發揮不同的作用，因為你可以更換它們，以便將電力重新分配到計算方面，而不是用於散熱管理方面。所以，這些是目前一些尚不明確的變數。但我試圖回答的問題是，如果冷水機運行時間減少，它的服務是否仍然相同？而實際情況是，在資料中心裡，你可以把它想像成一台冷卻器——冷卻器的風扇側或空氣側將像現在這樣運作。

The compressing side of the chiller may run less, but it still has to run. And if you don't run it, you're going to end up with problems. So those are kind of the balances that we're working through. So it's pretty dynamic. And -- we don't have it 100% dialed in, but I would tell you, we have a lot of people that are modeling that so we can understand it.

冷水機的壓縮側運轉時間可能會減少，但它仍然需要運作。如果你不運行它，最終會遇到問題。所以，這些就是我們正在努力平衡的各種因素。所以它相當動態。而且——我們還沒有完全掌握它，但我可以告訴你，我們有很多人在做建模，以便我們能夠理解它。

But don't -- there's a couple of things that are going to be the same, right? Response time, being on the job site, making sure that you have uptime. All that is going to be the same. Connected solutions is all going to be the same. So we'll still have a big robust Service business as well.

但別擔心——有些事情還是會保持不變的，對吧？回應時間、現場作業、確保正常運作時間。一切都將保持不變。互聯解決方案最終都會千篇一律。因此，我們仍然會擁有一個強大而穩健的服務業務。

Yes. And then just one more crack at the resi pricing, just given the inflation wave that's coming through in that business. And maybe, Chris, it doesn't sound like you want to put a pin on sort of the pricing. I just wondered, is that because the demand environment is to fluids, the raw material inflation impact is to fluids. I mean any sense on why you kind of -- I don't know if the mystery of pricing here, but just wondering what's kind of like driving our thinking around pricing?

是的。然後，鑑於目前住宅市場正經歷通貨膨脹，我們再對住宅定價進行一次調整。克里斯，或許你不想給價格定個結論。我只是想知道，是不是因為需求環境針對的是液體，所以原物料通膨的影響也針對的是液體。我的意思是，你對定價的某些方面有什麼看法嗎？我不知道這是否與定價的奧秘有關，但我只是想知道是什麼在驅動我們進行定價思考？

Well, I'll start with our team hasn't announced a price increase yet for -- I'd say that we've got expectations for the year, but we'll continue to remain dynamic. I don't want to signal anything in advance, but we have a lot of confidence in the team that they're going to manage well throughout the year, okay?

首先，我們的團隊尚未宣布漲價——我想說，我們對今年的業績有所預期，但我們將繼續保持靈活。我不想提前透露任何訊息，但我們對團隊充滿信心，相信他們能夠順利完成全年的工作，好嗎？

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Glad you clarify that resi pricing comment because few messages came in immediately when you said down. So obviously, some sensitivity around that. But just the Commercial HVAC side, can you help reconcile the -- like 100% plus applied orders and the 35% total orders like what was down to kind of get it to that rate? Or is it Applied just a smaller piece of that pie?

很高興你澄清了住宅定價的問題，因為你說價格下跌後，立刻收到了一些詢問。所以很明顯，這方面需要一些敏感度。但就商業暖通空調方面而言，您能否幫忙核對一下——例如應用訂單量超過 100%，而總訂單量卻下降了 35%，這究竟是怎麼回事？或者說，Applied 只是這塊蛋糕中的一小塊？

We saw growth in orders in both Applied and unitary here in the fourth quarter. Unitary closer to that low single-digit kind of range, but it was positive. I guess I'd leave it there. I mean, it's pretty broad brushed in terms of the verticals where we saw growth. Dave described the 12 to 14 -- 12 of the 14 verticals.

第四季度，應用型和單元型產品的訂單量均有所成長。更接近個位數範圍，但結果是正數。我想我就說到這裡吧。我的意思是，就我們看到成長的垂直領域而言，這個結論相當廣泛。戴夫描述了第 12 到 14 節——14 節垂直線中的 12 節。

Well, I mean, I guess, if there is 50-50 simplistically, wouldn't that be a lot higher of a total order number? Or is the -- am I -- is there services maybe in there or something?

嗯，我的意思是，如果簡單地假設是 50/50，那麼總訂單數豈不是會高得多？或者——我是——那裡是不是有什麼服務之類的？

Yes. Those services that certainly would be part of that conversation as well in terms of order growth. We'd have to get back to you with the answer. Yes. We can do the math on -- but you're also sit on comps with the prior year comps as well. We have to look at that, too.

是的。就訂單成長而言，這些服務當然也應該納入討論範圍。我們需要稍後才能給您答覆。是的。我們可以進行計算——但你也可以參考上一年度的數據。我們也需要考慮這一點。

Okay. And then just thinking about this kind of trajectory, obviously, very strong orders, strong backlog. In the first quarter, you're starting at like 7% to 8% exiting the year at a higher rate. And obviously, these orders are very strong. Is there something outside of the core Applied business?

好的。然後，仔細想想這種發展軌跡，顯然，訂單非常強勁，積壓訂單也很多。第一季度，成長率大概在 7% 到 8% 之間，年底成長率會更高。顯然，這些命令非常有力。除了Applied的核心業務之外，還有其他業務嗎？

And I guess what I'm getting at is, are there like a lot of like liquid cooling related orders that are now coming through and pushing that number higher and driving the acceleration in the second half? I know you guys have come out with some big launches on that front. Is that moving the needle on some of this?

我想問的是，現在是不是有很多與液冷相關的訂單湧入，推高了訂單數量，推動了下半年的成長？我知道你們在這方面已經推出了一些重磅產品。這在某些方面起到了推動作用嗎？

Well, I think we're mixing orders versus revenue. So the revenue is more a function that we're going to see in the back half of the orders that we've already booked, Steve. So think of it as -- if our last six months in Commercial HVAC in the Americas, our orders are up over 30%, and you just start adding nine months almost on average to each of those to understand when it's going to ship out. And Europe is very similar, as I said, that was up the high teens level. So all that backlog is going to come up.

我認為我們把訂單量和收入混淆了。所以，史蒂夫，收入更多地取決於我們已經預訂的訂單的後半部分。所以你可以這樣理解——如果我們過去六個月在美洲的商業暖通空調業務訂單增長了 30% 以上，那麼你只需平均為每個訂單加上九個月的時間，就能了解什麼時候可以發貨。正如我所說，歐洲的情況也非常相似，已經達到了十幾個百分點的水平。所以所有積壓的工作都會被處理出來。

To your question on are we seeing robust demand for other elements of the thermal management system, absolutely certainly in our pipeline. And as you can imagine, we're all over it, and the teams are just doing a great job there on the innovation side as well as on the front end talking to customers as to what we have in our portfolio.

至於您問我們是否看到對熱管理系統其他元件的強勁需求，答案是肯定的，我們正在研發中。正如你所想，我們已經全力投入其中，各個團隊在創新方面以及與客戶溝通、介紹我們產品組合方面都做得非常出色。

Okay. And then one last one, Chris, can you just remind us what the standing kind of Tier 1, Tier 2 kind of raws bases, so we can just kind of like door on math on that inflation dynamic this year?

好的。最後一個問題，克里斯，你能提醒我們第一級、第二級的基本面是什麼嗎？這樣我們就可以對今年的通貨膨脹動態進行一些簡單的數學計算了。

Yes, Tier 1 is still around $750 million and then the Tier 2 is around $5.5 billion to $6 billion in terms of size.

是的，一級供應商的規模仍然在 7.5 億美元左右，而二級供應商的規模則在 55 億至 60 億美元之間。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the conference back over to Zac Nagle for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把會議交還給扎克·納格爾，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. As always, we'll be around to take any questions that you may have today or in the coming days. We'll be on the road at a couple of conferences here in February and then into the rest of the quarter. So we look forward to seeing many of you on the road. Thanks very much. Bye.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。就像以往一樣，我們今天或未來幾天都會隨時解答您的任何問題。二月我們會參加幾個會議，然後一直到本季結束。所以我們期待在路上見到你們中的許多人。非常感謝。再見。

This concludes our call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。