特靈科技 (TT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Trane Technologies fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加特靈科技 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我的名字是 Regina，我將擔任您的電話接線生。電話會議即將開始，首先是發言人的講話，然後是問答環節。（操作員指令）

I will now turn the call over to Zac Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Zac Nagle。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies' fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com, where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We're also recording and archiving this call on our website. Please go to slide 2.

謝謝，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 Trane Technologies 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網路直播，您可以在那裡找到隨附的簡報。我們還在我們的網站上錄製並存檔了這通通話。請看投影片 2。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release.

今天電話會議中非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出。請參閱我們的美國證券交易委員會文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。本簡報還包括非 GAAP 指標，這些指標在我們新聞稿中附帶的財務表中進行了解釋。

Joining me on today's call are Dave Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Chris Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave. Dave?

參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Dave Regnery；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Chris Kuehn。說完這些，我會把電話轉給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Zac, and everyone, for joining today's call. Please turn to slide number 3. I'd like to begin with a few minutes on our purpose-driven strategy, which enables our differentiated financial results over time.

感謝札克和大家參加今天的電話會議。請翻到第 3 張投影片。首先，我想花幾分鐘介紹我們的目標驅動策略，該策略使我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現差異化的財務表現。

At Trane Technologies, we continuously innovate for a sustainable world. And our innovation is driving significant customer demand. We are the partner of choice to ensure optimal performance while reducing energy use and emissions. Our customers know that our solutions are green for green, good for the planet and good for the bottom line.

在特靈科技，我們不斷創新，致力於建立永續發展的世界。我們的創新正在推動巨大的客戶需求。我們是您的首選合作夥伴，可確保最佳效能，同時減少能源使用和排放。我們的客戶知道我們的解決方案是綠色的、對地球有益的、對底線也有益的。

Our relentless intent and innovation powers our flywheel of market outperformance and strong free cash flow. With this momentum, our proven business operating system and our uplift in culture, we are well positioned to deliver a leading growth profile and differentiated shareholder value into the future.

我們不懈的努力和創新為我們帶來了市場優異表現和強勁自由現金流的飛輪動力。憑藉這一發展動能、我們成熟的業務營運體系和不斷提升的文化，我們有能力在未來實現領先的成長前景和差異化的股東價值。

Please turn to slide number 4. We expect to deliver top quartile financial performance over the long term, consistently and reliably for our shareholders. This is core to our culture and central to how we set our targets and execute our strategy across our global portfolio.

請翻到第 4 張投影片。我們期望長期、持續、可靠地為股東提供最高四分位的財務表現。這是我們文化的核心，也是我們如何設定目標和執行全球投資組合策略的關鍵。

2024 was a standout year for the company. I'm proud of how our global teams exceeded our targets, top to bottom. We closely track top quartile performance against our core peer group and believe our performance will rank in the top quartile on organic revenue growth, up 12%; as well as adjusted EPS growth, up 24%. We also delivered free cash flow of $2.8 billion or 109% free cash flow conversion, enabling us to make key strategic M&A investments while raising our dividend and returning significant cash to shareholders through share repurchases.

2024 年對公司來說是傑出的一年。我為我們的全球團隊從上到下都超額完成了目標而感到自豪。我們密切追蹤核心同業的上四分位表現，相信我們的表現將在有機收入成長方面名列前茅，成長 12%；調整後每股收益也成長了 24%。我們還實現了 28 億美元的自由現金流或 109% 的自由現金流轉換率，使我們能夠進行關鍵的策略性併購投資，同時提高股息並透過股票回購向股東返還大量現金。

Please turn to slide number 5. Our relentless investment in innovation, growth, people, culture and our business operating system have yielded clear benefits over time, demonstrated by our strong track record. Since 2020, we've delivered a revenue compound annual growth rate of 12%, expanded our adjusted EBITDA margins by 400 basis points and delivered free cash flow conversion of 108%, while deploying approximately $12 billion of capital.

請翻到第 5 張投影片。我們對創新、成長、人才、文化和商業作業系統的不懈投資已經隨著時間的推移產生了明顯的效益，我們出色的業績記錄就證明了這一點。自 2020 年以來，我們實現了 12% 的收入複合年增長率，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 400 個基點，自由現金流轉換率達到了 108%，同時部署了約 120 億美元的資本。

We believe that consistent business reinvestment is key to our long-term success. For over a decade, we've added a high level of incremental investments each year in high ROI projects. This has resulted in a world-class direct sales force channel and service organization. It has also enabled us to develop cutting-edge solutions for the most pressing customer challenges, driving strong demand.

我們相信，持續的業務再投資是我們長期成功的關鍵。十多年來，我們每年都會對高投資報酬率的項目增加大量的增量投資。由此，我們打造了世界級的直銷通路與服務組織。它還使我們能夠為最緊迫的客戶挑戰開發尖端解決方案，從而推動強勁的需求。

We have all the essential ingredients to execute our strategy and continue driving differentiated returns for our shareholders over the long term.

我們擁有實施策略和持續為股東帶來長期差異化回報的所有必要因素。

Please turn to slide number 6. We delivered robust financial results in the fourth quarter, extending our strong track record of execution and industry-leading revenue and EPS growth. Our global team achieved 10% organic revenue growth, 110 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and 20% adjusted EPS growth.

請翻到第 6 張投影片。我們在第四季度取得了強勁的財務業績，延續了我們強勁的執行記錄和領先業界的營收和每股盈餘成長。我們的全球團隊實現了 10% 的有機收入成長、110 個基點的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大和 20% 的調整後 EPS 成長。

Organic bookings for full year 2024 were strong, up 11%, with a book-to-bill ratio of 102% on top of 12% organic revenue growth. This contributed to a highly elevated backlog of $6.75 billion entering 2025.

2024 年全年有機預訂量強勁，成長 11%，訂單出貨比達 102%，有機收入成長 12%。這導致 2025 年的積壓訂單量大幅增加，達到 67.5 億美元。

We saw strong performance across our segments, led by our Commercial HVAC businesses. Fourth quarter Americas and EMEA organic Commercial HVAC bookings were both strong, each up more than 30% out of three-year stack. Fourth quarter organic revenues were exceptional, with Americas Commercial HVAC up mid-50%s on a three-year stack, and EMEA Commercial HVAC up more than 60% over the same period.

我們各部門都表現強勁，其中商用暖通空調業務表現最為出色。第四季美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機商用暖通空調訂單量均表現強勁，三年累計成長超過 30%。第四季的有機收入非常出色，其中美洲商用暖通空調三年內成長了 50% 左右，而 EMEA 商用暖通空調同期成長了 60% 以上。

Our teams are excelling in complex, bespoke applied projects, which are key to the multiyear CapEx cycle, especially in high-growth verticals. For instance, three-year stack organic revenue growth in Applied Systems for our Americas and MEDIA Commercial HVAC businesses is up over 120% and 90%, respectively.

我們的團隊在複雜、客製化的應用專案方面表現出色，這些專案對於多年的資本支出週期至關重要，尤其是在高成長垂直行業。例如，應用系統美洲業務和媒體商用暖通空調業務的三年有機收入成長率分別超過 120% 和 90%。

Applied Systems offer a durable (inaudible) of 8 to 10 times the initial equipment cost over their lifespan, meaning our strong growth in Applied Solutions presents tremendous service opportunities with higher margins that are largely still ahead of us.

應用系統提供的產品在其使用壽命內耐用（聽不清楚）成本是初始設備成本的8 到10 倍，這意味著我們在應用解決方案方面的強勁增長為我們帶來了巨大的服務機會和更高的利潤，而這些機會在很大程度上仍然擺在我們面前。

Looking beyond the continued strength in Commercial HVAC, we see several tailwinds in 2025. We believe residential markets have largely normalized and are returning to our long-term framework of GDP+ growth. The Americas transport refrigeration markets are expected to bottom in the first half of 2025, paving the way for a second half recovery and strong growth in 2026 and 2027.

除了商用暖通空調市場的持續強勁成長之外，我們還看到 2025 年將出現幾個利好因素。我們相信住宅市場已基本正常化並正在回歸到長期的 GDP+ 成長框架。預計美洲運輸冷藏市場將在 2025 年上半年觸底，為下半年復甦以及 2026 年和 2027 年的強勁成長鋪平道路。

In addition, the challenges associated with our actions in the second half of 2024 to tighten credit policies in China are improving ahead of our initial expectations. Given our consistent performance over time, we are confident in our ability to deliver strong results in 2025. We are initiating a strong guide for the year, which Chris will cover in more detail in a few minutes.

此外，我們在 2024 年下半年採取的收緊中國信貸政策的行動所帶來的挑戰正在比我們最初的預期更快改善。鑑於我們長期以來的穩定表現，我們有信心在 2025 年取得強勁業績。我們正在為今年制定一份強而有力的指南，克里斯將在幾分鐘內進行更詳細的介紹。

Please turn to slide number 7. Demand for our innovative solutions was broad-based across our segments in the fourth quarter. In our Americas segment, Commercial HVAC bookings were up high single digits, revenues were up mid-teens in both equipment and services. Residential revenues were up low teens, consistent with the second and third quarters.

請翻到第 7 張投影片。第四季度，我們各部門對創新解決方案的需求都很廣泛。在我們的美洲分部，商用暖通空調訂單量成長了個位數，設備和服務收入均成長了百分之十幾。住宅收入成長了10%左右，與第二季和第三季持平。

Transport refrigeration bookings were down high 20s after being up high 20s in the third quarter, reflecting the inherent lumpiness associated with the timing of large customer orders in this business. Revenues were down low teens, outperforming end markets, which were down more than 20% in the quarter.

運輸冷藏訂單量在第三季上漲20%多之後，又下跌了20%，這反映了該業務中大客戶訂單時間固有的不穩定性。營收下降了百分之十幾，表現優於終端市場，終端市場本季的營收下降了 20% 以上。

In EMEA, commercial HVAC bookings were up mid-single digits in the quarter versus a tough prior year comp. two-year stack bookings were up 20%. Revenue was also up low teens. Our transport business performed in line with our expectations with revenues down low single digits.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，與去年同期相比，本季商用暖通空調訂單量成長了中個位數。兩年期預訂量上漲了20%。收入也成長了百分之十幾。我們的運輸業務表現符合我們的預期，收入下降了個位數。

In Asia Pacific, our team demonstrated resilience, achieving strong sequential improvement. Bookings in the region were up 8% and revenues were up 1%. The strength in the rest of Asia more than compensated for the softness in China, where bookings were down low single digits and revenues declined by low teens.

在亞太地區，我們的團隊表現出了韌性，取得了連續強勁的成長。該地區的預訂量增加了 8%，收入增加了 1%。亞洲其他地區的強勁表現足以彌補中國市場的疲軟，中國市場的預訂量下降了個位數，收入則下降了十幾個百分點。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 8. This slide provides a snapshot of our fourth quarter performance, showcasing strong execution across the board.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 8 張投影片。這張投影片簡要介紹了我們第四季的業績，展現了我們全面的強勁執行力。

Organic revenues were up 10%, adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 110 basis points and adjusted EPS rose by 20%. At the enterprise level, we achieved robust organic revenue growth in both equipment and services up high single digits and low teens, respectively. Our high-performance flywheel continues to yield results with relentless investments in innovation driving top line growth, margin expansion and EPS growth.

有機營收成長 10%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增加 110 個基點，調整後每股盈餘成長 20%。在企業層面，我們的設備和服務均實現了強勁的有機收入成長，分別成長了高個位數和低十位數。我們的高性能飛輪透過對創新的不懈投資繼續產生成果，推動了營業額成長、利潤率擴大和每股盈餘成長。

Please turn to slide number 9. At the enterprise level, we achieved robust volume growth, positive price realization and productivity gains that offset inflation and high levels of business reinvestment. In the Americas, we delivered 9 points of volume growth and 2 points of price. Strong performance in Commercial HVAC and Residential was partially offset by softer transport results. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 140 basis points, driven by volume growth, productivity and price realization.

請翻到第 9 張投影片。在企業層面，我們實現了強勁的銷售成長、積極的價格實現和生產力提高，抵消了通貨膨脹和高水準的業務再投資。在美洲，我們的銷量成長了 9%，價格成長了 2%。商業暖通空調和住宅業務的強勁表現被運輸業務的疲軟所部分抵消。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 140 個基點，這得益於銷售成長、生產力提高和價格實現。

In EMEA, we delivered 6 points of volume growth and 1 point of price with strong Commercial HVAC performance. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 20 basis points, driven by volume growth, productivity and price realization. In Asia Pacific, we delivered 1 point of price and volume was flat. EBITDA margin expansion was driven by price realization and strong productivity, more than offsetting inflation and business reinvestment.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們憑藉著強勁的商用暖通空調業績，實現了銷量成長 6 個百分點、價格上漲 1 個百分點。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 20 個基點，這得益於銷售成長、生產力提高和價格實現。在亞太地區，我們交付了 1 個點的價格，交易量持平。EBITDA 利潤率的擴大是由價格實現和強勁的生產力推動的，超過了抵消通貨膨脹和業務再投資的影響。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 10. This slide outlines the key dynamics shaping our market outlook and guidance for 2025.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第 10 張投影片。本投影片概述了影響我們 2025 年市場前景和指導的關鍵動態。

In the Americas, we anticipate continued strong execution and broad-based strength in core markets, with particular momentum in high-growth verticals. Our world-class direct sales force and leading innovation are powerful competitive advantages that enable us to optimize opportunities and drive market outperformance.

在美洲，我們預期核心市場將持續保持強勁執行力和全面實力，高成長垂直市場的動能尤其強勁。我們世界一流的直銷隊伍和領先的創新是強大的競爭優勢，使我們能夠優化機會並推動市場超越。

We expect residential markets to return to a GDP+ framework in 2025, following a modest prebuy of around $75 million to $100 million in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. Most of this prebuy is expected to impact the first quarter of 2025. For the full year, we see mid-single-digit growth in the residential business, with a tailwind from the low GWP mix.

我們預計，住宅市場將在 2024 年第三季和第四季實現約 7,500 萬至 1 億美元的適度預購後，在 2025 年恢復到 GDP+ 框架。預計大部分預購將影響 2025 年第一季。就全年而言，我們預計住宅業務將實現中等個位數成長，並受益於低 GWP 組合的推動。

Turning to transport. We expect relative flat markets in 2025, plus or minus low single digits. The market should bottom in Q1, down about 25% year over year, then rebound in the second half, aligning with freight market recovery forecasts. While the exact timing and speed are uncertain, ACT predicts a sharp recovery in both 2026 and 2027, up mid-teens each year. We've continued to invest heavily during the market downturn, and we are well positioned to outperform as the market comes back.

轉向運輸。我們預期 2025 年市場將相對平穩，增減幅度在個位數以內。市場應該會在第一季觸底，年減約 25%，然後在下半年反彈，與貨運市場復甦預測一致。雖然具體的時間和速度尚不確定，但 ACT 預測 2026 年和 2027 年都將大幅復甦，每年的成長率都將達到十幾歲左右。我們在市場低迷期間繼續大力投資，並且已做好準備，在市場復甦時取得優異表現。

In EMEA, we expect continued strength in Commercial HVAC in 2025 driven by strong execution in core markets and tailwinds from Thermal Management Systems, Services and key growth verticals. EMEA transport markets are expected to be flat to up low single digits in 2025, and we expect to outperform.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們預計，由於核心市場的強勁表現以及熱管理系統、服務和關鍵成長垂直領域的推動，商用暖通空調將在 2025 年繼續保持強勁勢頭。預計到 2025 年，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的運輸市場將保持平穩或略有成長，而我們預計將表現出色。

In Asia, we anticipate a flattish market for the year due to a soft macro backdrop and our tightened credit policies impacting the first half of 2025. We expect muted performance in China to be offset by growth in the rest of Asia.

在亞洲，由於宏觀背景疲軟以及緊縮的信貸政策將影響 2025 年上半年，我們預計今年的市場將持平。我們預期中國市場的低迷表現將被亞洲其他地區的成長所抵消。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉回給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to slide number 11. Our 2025 guidance reflects the market dynamics outlined on the prior slide, and our optimism about our ability to outperform. It also incorporates our value creation flywheel, emphasizing continued investment in innovation, market outgrowth, healthy leverage and strong free cash flow.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到第 11 張投影片。我們的 2025 年指引反映了上一張投影片中概述的市場動態，以及我們對自身表現優異能力的樂觀態度。它還融入了我們的價值創造飛輪，強調對創新、市場成長、健康槓桿和強勁自由現金流的持續投資。

We are initiating 2025 guidance with 7% to 8% organic revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share of $12.70 to $12.90, representing approximately 13% to 15% EPS growth. This includes about 100 basis points of negative FX and roughly 50 basis points of growth from M&A impacting revenue, which together are expected to negatively impact earnings by about $0.20 for the year.

我們預計 2025 年有機收入成長率為 7% 至 8%，調整後每股收益為 12.70 美元至 12.90 美元，相當於每股收益成長約 13% 至 15%。其中包括約 100 個基點的負外匯影響和約 50 個基點的併購成長對營收的影響，預計這些因素加起來將對全年收益產生約 0.20 美元的負面影響。

We are targeting organic leverage of 25% or higher, consistent with our long-term goals. We anticipate another year of 100% or greater free cash flow conversion in 2025.

我們的目標是實現 25% 或更高的有機槓桿率，這與我們的長期目標一致。我們預計 2025 年自由現金流轉換率將達到 100% 或更高。

Looking at the first quarter of 2025, we expect approximately 6% to 7% organic revenue growth driven by continued strength in commercial HVAC. We expect adjusted EPS in the first quarter to be between $2.15 and $2.20, with a midpoint of $2.17. This midpoint represents about 17% of our full year guidance, ahead of our three-year and five-year historical averages of approximately 15% to 16%.

展望 2025 年第一季度，我們預計在商用 HVAC 持續強勁的推動下，有機收入將成長約 6% 至 7%。我們預計第一季調整後的每股盈餘將在 2.15 美元至 2.20 美元之間，中間值為 2.17 美元。這一中點約占我們全年預期的 17%，高於我們三年和五年的歷史平均值約 15% 至 16%。

Overall, we believe our Q1 guidance is strong and an achievable start to the year. For additional details related to our guidance, please refer to slide number 18.

總體而言，我們相信我們的第一季業績指引強勁，並且是今年可以實現的開端。有關我們的指導的更多詳細信息，請參閱幻燈片第 18 頁。

Please go to slide number 12. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy, focused on deploying excess cash to maximize shareholder returns. First, we strengthened our core business through relentless reinvestment. Second, we maintain a strong balance sheet to ensure flexibility as markets evolve.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。我們仍然致力於平衡的資本配置策略，專注於部署多餘現金以最大化股東回報。首先，我們透過不懈的再投資加強了我們的核心業務。其次，我們維持強勁的資產負債表，以確保隨著市場的變化而具有靈活性。

Third, we expect to deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our approach includes strategic M&A to enhance long-term returns and share repurchases when the stock trades below intrinsic value.

第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移將部署100％的過剩現金。我們的方法包括策略性併購以提高長期回報，並在股票交易價格低於內在價值時進行股票回購。

Please turn to slide number 13. In 2024, we deployed or committed approximately $2.5 billion through our balanced capital allocation strategy, with approximately $800 million to dividends, $470 million to M&A and $1.3 billion to share repurchases. We made several strategic bolt-on acquisitions, enhancing our AI and digital building management capabilities, expanding specialized refrigerated transport and making multiple channel investments.

請翻到第 13 張投影片。2024 年，我們透過平衡資本配置策略部署或承諾了約 25 億美元，其中約 8 億美元用於股息，4.7 億美元用於併購，13 億美元用於股票回購。我們進行了幾次策略性附加收購，增強了我們的人工智慧和數位建築管理能力，擴大了專業冷藏運輸並進行了多通路投資。

Our M&A pipeline remains active and we will continue to be disciplined in our approach. In addition, with $6.2 billion remaining under repurchase authorizations, we have strong flexibility as our shares trade below our calculated intrinsic value.

我們的併購管道仍然活躍，我們將繼續嚴謹地行事。此外，由於剩餘 62 億美元的回購授權，我們擁有強大的靈活性，因為我們的股票交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值。

For 2025, we expect to deploy between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in capital. Our strong free cash flow, liquidity, balance sheet and significant share repurchase authorization provide excellent capital allocation optionality moving forward.

到 2025 年，我們預計將投入 25 億至 30 億美元的資本。我們強勁的自由現金流、流動性、資產負債表和大量的股票回購授權為未來提供了極佳的資本配置選擇。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回給戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to slide number 15. We've already covered our transport market expectations in the Americas and EMEA on slide 10, so I'll keep my comments brief. While the Americas transport refrigeration markets have been more volatile in recent years compared to the five years preceding the 2020 pandemic, the long-term outlook remains strong.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到第 15 張投影片。我們已經在第 10 張投影片上介紹了我們對美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區運輸市場的預期，因此我的評論就簡短一些。儘管近年來美洲運輸冷藏市場與 2020 年疫情爆發前的五年相比波動更大，但長期前景仍然強勁。

ACT forecast show an average of 44,000 trailer units per year over a 15-year period. For 2026 and 2027, ACT projects mid-teens growth. The future looks bright, and we're excited about the opportunities ahead.

ACT 預測顯示，15 年內每年平均拖車銷量為 44,000 輛。ACT 預計 2026 年和 2027 年的成長率將達到十五六成。未來一片光明，我們對未來的機會感到興奮。

Please turn to slide number 16. In summary, we are well positioned to deliver leading performance and differentiated shareholder returns in 2025 and beyond. Our uplifting and engaging culture, combined with our leading innovation and proven business operating system, continue to set us apart.

請翻到第 16 張投影片。總而言之，我們已做好準備，在 2025 年及以後實現領先的業績和差異化的股東回報。我們的積極向上、引人入勝的文化，加上我們領先的創新和成熟的商業營運體系，繼續使我們脫穎而出。

I'm proud of our team's consistent track record of growth including our standout performance in 2024, and I truly believe our brightest days are still ahead.

我為我們團隊持續的成長記錄（包括我們在 2024 年的出色表現）感到自豪，我堅信我們最輝煌的日子還在後頭。

And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to ask on Service, with Q4 up low teens again, I think America was in the mid-teens in Q4. Service has now grown at a double-digit rate for the last three to four years. And Dave, I know you typically talk about high single-digit service growth. So I just wanted to get a sense for the outlook here and what's baked into this '25 guide on Service, which I know in the past, you said has usually lagged equipment by a couple of years.

我想問服務方面，由於第四季度的銷售額再次處於十幾歲的低位，我認為美國在第四季度的銷售額處於十幾歲的中段。過去三到四年來，服務業一直以兩位數的速度成長。戴夫，我知道您通常會談論高個位數的服務成長。因此，我只是想了解這裡的前景以及 25 年服務指南中包含的內容，據我所知，您過去曾說過，服務通常會落後於設備幾年。

Chris, thanks for the question. Yes, I'm so proud of our Service business, just the growth rates that we've seen there. Chris makes me use a seven-year CAGR on that. So that's where the high single digit comes from and it's very high, high single digits.

克里斯，謝謝你的提問。是的，我對我們的服務業務感到非常自豪，我們看到了其成長率。克里斯讓我對此使用七年的複合年增長率。這就是高個位數的由來，而且是非常高的個位數。

But look, we were up mid-teens -- or low teens, I'm sorry, in the fourth quarter, low teens for the full year. Our Service business now, from a dollar basis, is $6.5 billion and just tremendous growth that we're seeing there.

但你看，我們在第四季的成長率是十幾歲中段——或者說是十幾歲下段，對不起，全年的成長率是十幾歲下段。目前，我們的服務業務以美元計算為 65 億美元，而且我們正在看到驚人的成長。

And if you think about our backlog, right, which predominantly -- on Commercial HVAC predominantly applied, that's really where our Service business was designed around our applied solutions. And the more complex those solutions become, the more propensity for the OEM to do the service work.

如果你想想我們的積壓工作，對吧，主要是在商用暖通空調上應用，這實際上是我們的服務業務圍繞我們的應用解決方案設計的。這些解決方案越複雜，OEM 承擔服務工作的傾向就越大。

So look, we'll keep our guide at the high, high single digits, but think about $6.5 billion that's growing at close to 10% rate per year in the last couple of years have been in that double-digit range. As you said, it's a very resilient business. And I can tell you that we're operating very well there as part of our operating system, the cadence that we have there. And we're really hitting on all cylinders right now.

所以，我們將會把我們的指導數字保持在高、高個位數，但想想看，過去幾年裡，每年以接近 10% 的速度增長的 65 億美元一直處於兩位數的範圍內。正如您所說，這是一個非常有彈性的業務。我可以告訴你們，作為我們作業系統的一部分，我們在那裡的運作非常好，我們的節奏也很好。我們現在確實正全力以赴。

No, really appreciate that. And then maybe turning over to the Commercial HVAC equipment. Orders this quarter, high singles. A bit better than last quarter, low single comp seems to be the same. And I know there's always a lot of focus on data center, but what you guys do, obviously -- I think you talked to 13 or 14 commercial verticals.

不，真的很感激。然後也許會轉向商用 HVAC 設備。本季訂單量高單。比上一季好一點，低單補償似乎是一樣的。我知道人們總是非常關注資料中心，但你們所做的事情顯然是——我想你們已經與 13 或 14 個商業垂直行業進行了交談。

So was that improvement? Is that just a project lumpiness? Or when you look across those verticals, do you see positive rate of change across some of them?

那麼，這是進步嗎？這僅僅是一個專案上的不順利嗎？或者當您觀察這些垂直行業時，您是否看到其中一些行業的變化率呈正增長？

Chris. Great question. Look, our order grade for Commercial HVAC in the Americas was up high single digits. On a two-year stack, it's over 20%. On a three-year stack, it's over 30%.

克里斯。好問題。你看，我們在美洲的商業暖通空調的訂單等級上升了個位數。以兩年計算，這一比例超過 20%。以三年計算，這一比例超過 30%。

So we continue to see tremendous growth in our Commercial HVAC business. As far as the verticals, yes, we track 14 different verticals and we're seeing growth. Yes, we're seeing growth in data centers. It's been a strong vertical for us in the past. It's going to be a strong vertical for us in the future. But we're seeing broad-based growth.

因此，我們的商用暖通空調業務持續實現巨大的成長。就垂直行業而言，是的，我們追蹤 14 個不同的垂直行業，並且我們看到了成長。是的，我們看到資料中心正在成長。過去，這對我們來說一直是一個強大的垂直領域。這將成為我們未來一個強勁的垂直領域。但我們看到的是廣泛的成長。

And if you think about it, I mean -- and the revenue for the Americas for the year was up over 20%, and we had growth in 13 of the 14 verticals. The only vertical that was not showing growth was life science and it's been challenged all year, but we're very optimistic about the future there.

如果你仔細想想，我的意思是——今年美洲地區的收入成長了 20% 以上，而且我們在 14 個垂直領域中的 13 個都實現了成長。唯一沒有顯示成長的垂直領域是生命科學，而且該領域全年都面臨挑戰，但我們對該領域的未來非常樂觀。

So think about that. We're showing broad-based growth. And you would expect that from Trane Technologies with the broad-based portfolio of products and services that we have.

所以考慮一下。我們正在展現廣泛的成長。您可能也期待特靈科技能夠憑藉其廣泛的產品和服務組合來實現這一點。

We didn't design our portfolio of products to serve a particular vertical. We designed it to serve the market, and that's exactly what we're doing. And if you take that with our direct sales force with deep domain expertise, knowledge at both a technical level and then within a vertical level, you could understand why we're being able to have this broad-based growth.

我們設計的產品組合並不是為了服務某個特定的垂直產業。我們設計它是為了服務市場，而這正是我們正在做的事情。如果您考慮到我們的直銷團隊擁有深厚的專業知識，既有技術層面的知識，也有垂直層面的知識，您就會理解為什麼我們能夠實現這種廣泛的成長。

So we're very excited about what we're seeing in Commercial HVAC. The team is performing very well. And the pipeline, too, is very, very strong. So we -- obviously, we report orders, but the pipeline is what the team is working on, and that remains very, very robust.

因此，我們對商用暖通空調領域看到的情況感到非常興奮。這支球隊的表現非常出色。而且管道也非常非常堅固。因此，顯然，我們會報告訂單，但管道是團隊正在努力解決的問題，而且管道仍然非常非常強大。

Chris, I would add, nothing about our applied solutions, which impact many of those 14 verticals. Revenues in applied are up over 120% in the Americas Commercial HVAC business over the last three years. In the EMEA business, more than 90% of.

克里斯，我想補充一點，我們應用的解決方案對這 14 個垂直行業中的許多行業都沒有影響。過去三年來，美洲商用暖通空調業務的應用收入成長了 120% 以上。在EMEA業務中，超過90%的。

And that is building an installed base that then drive services that think of that as a few years after the installed base, the Service revenues start to apply post warranty period. That's largely in front of us. So it's a very durable tail, as Dave described, and really excited that, again, applied serves multiple verticals.

這就是建立一個安裝基礎，然後推動服務，認為在安裝基礎幾年後，服務收入開始適用於保固期後。這基本上就在我們面前。所以這是一個非常耐用的尾部，正如戴夫所描述的，並且真的很高興，再次應用服務於多個垂直領域。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just the first question around the organic sales guide through the year. So I think a lot of investors would have expected maybe a slow start to the year and then an acceleration because of resi HVAC recovering from the prebuy headwind and TK picking up a bit.

也許這只是全年有機銷售指南的第一個問題。因此，我認為很多投資者可能會預期今年開局會比較緩慢，然後會加速，因為住宅 HVAC 從購屋前的逆風中恢復過來，而且 TK 也有所回升。

But your organic growth guide looks very steady through the year, just 1 point less in Q1. So trying to understand, does that reflect not a big headwind from resi HVAC and TK in Q1? Or does it just reflect some conservatism when we're thinking about the half and the Commercial HVAC sales growth?

但您的有機成長指南全年看起來非常穩定，僅第一季下降了 1 個百分點。因此，試圖理解，這是否反映出第一季住宅 HVAC 和 TK 並沒有遭遇太大的阻力？或者當我們考慮一半和商用暖通空調銷售成長時，它是否僅僅反映了一些保守主義？

Julian, it's Chris. I'll start. Yes, think about the first quarter -- and I'll start with residential, right? Dave called out the prebuy estimate that we had around $75 million to $100 million, we expect that should largely impact the first quarter. It may extend beyond that.

朱利安，我是克里斯。我先開始。是的，想想第一季 - - 我將從住宅開始，對嗎？戴夫稱，我們的預購估計金額約為 7,500 萬至 1 億美元，我們預計這將對第一季產生很大影響。它可能會超越這個範圍。

But right now, we're thinking that should largely impact the first quarter. It means residential is flat to slightly down in the first quarter. Transport markets, as you described, I mean, we're seeing them bottom out in the first half of the year, probably a bit under challenge here in the first quarter. But we're seeing continued strength in the Commercial HVAC businesses.

但現在，我們認為這應該會對第一季產生很大影響。這意味著第一季住宅價格持平或略有下降。正如您所描述的，運輸市場在上半年已經觸底，第一季可能面臨一些挑戰。但我們看到商用暖通空調業務持續保持強勁勢頭。

So think of them as up high single digit, could be 10% growth here even in the start of the first quarter. But it's really why we have a range of 6% to 7% organic revenue growth for the first quarter. We think the guide is in the right range -- we've got opportunities and multiple ways to get there.

因此，可以將其視為高個位數成長，即使在第一季開始時，成長率也可能達到 10%。但這確實是我們第一季有機收入成長 6% 至 7% 的原因。我們認為該指南是在正確的範圍內——我們有機會和多種方式來實現它。

But you're right, I mean, transport residential will have a start that could be a little bit down in the beginning of the year, but a lot of strength coming through Commercial HVAC. And then we have multiple opportunities as we execute to the guide on the full year. As we said, it was 7% to 8% organic revenue growth. A lot of confidence in our guide for the first quarter and for the full year.

但你是對的，我的意思是，運輸住宅在年初可能會有點低迷，但商業暖通空調將會有很大的成長勢頭。當我們執行全年指南時，我們有多個機會。正如我們所說，有機收入成長率為 7% 至 8%。我們對第一季和全年的預期非常有信心。

And then just my follow-up would be around the price volume outlook within the organic sales guide. So I think fourth quarter price was 1 to 2 points across the company, higher than that in the Americas. When we're thinking about the year ahead, is it a similar 1- to 2-point price tailwinds in the sales mix? And any concerns about customers, for example, in the resi channels pushing back on price increases?

然後我的後續問題將圍繞著有機銷售指南中的價格量前景。因此我認為第四季度整個公司的價格比美洲高出 1 到 2 個點。當我們考慮未來的一年時，銷售組合中是否也會出現類似的 1 到 2 點的價格順風？您是否擔心消費者（例如，住宅通路的消費者）會抵制漲價？

Yes. For the fourth quarter, price was a little bit above 2 points. It really has been coming down over the last couple of years. And now at -- for the full year in 2024, it's a little bit above 2 points as well. And the Americas would be really the driver there, a little bit above 2 points in the Americas.

是的。第四季的價格略高於2點。過去幾年裡，這一數字確實一直在下降。現在——對於 2024 年全年來說，它也略高於 2 個百分點。而美洲才是真正的推動力，美洲地區的成長略高於 2 個百分點。

And Julian, in 2025, we'd expect pricing to contribute about 1 point to maybe 1.5 points on the full year revenue growth outlook. So on $0.07 to $0.08, we get 5.5 to 6, so 6.5 around volume and then 1 to 1.5 points come from price. It's less of the carryover from 2024 pricing that would impact '25, just given the low nature of the contribution in '24. It's really around the new price increases that we put in place for 2025.

朱利安，到 2025 年，我們預計定價將對全年營收成長前景貢獻約 1 個百分點到 1.5 個百分點。因此，在 0.07 美元到 0.08 美元之間，我們得到 5.5 到 6，因此交易量約為 6.5，然後 1 到 1.5 個點來自價格。考慮到 2024 年貢獻的較低性質，2024 年定價的結轉對 2025 年的影響較小。這實際上與我們為 2025 年實施的新價格上漲有關。

On residential, you mentioned that, just to be clear on the transition to the lower refrigerant, the 454B refrigerant for us. We're going to report that price increase, which is high single digits for that portfolio. We're going to report that in volume, so that would not be part of price.

關於住宅，您提到，只是為了明確過渡到較低冷媒的情況，即我們的 454B 冷媒。我們將報告該價格上漲，對於該投資組合來說，這是一個較高的個位數。我們將以數量來報告，因此這不屬於價格的一部分。

But think of that as on 65% of the portfolio and then about 75% of the year, three quarters of the year really being impacted but the transition for the A2L refrigerant. So hopefully the sense -- we're probably in that 1 to 1.5 point price range for the year.

但想想看，65% 的投資組合和一年中大約 75% 的時間都受到了影響，一年中四分之三的時間確實受到了影響，但這是 A2L 冷媒的轉變。所以希望我們今年的價格範圍可能處於 1 到 1.5 個點之間。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citi.

花旗銀行的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)

I wanted to ask Chris' question in a slightly different way. I know you have the 14 verticals. But are data center project bookings set to lead growth, for instance, in '25 versus 24? And like education-related bookings are holding up well, there's been some consternation about that. And just on the comps issue, like comps in North America continue to get a little more difficult when you still grow Commercial HVAC bookings in North America even against difficult comps?

我想用稍微不同的方式問克里斯的問題。我知道你有 14 條垂直線。但是，資料中心專案訂單是否會引領成長，例如在25年而不是24年？儘管教育相關的預訂保持良好，但人們對此感到擔憂。就可比問題而言，例如，在北美進行可比銷售會變得更加困難，儘管與困難的可比銷售相比，北美的商業暖通空調預訂量仍在增長，但這是否會對可比銷售產生不利影響？

Yes. A lot there, Andy. But look, we saw a growth in, like I said, at almost all verticals. So yes, data centers were strong, but we had a lot of other verticals that were very, very strong. And you hit on one, education.

是的。那裡有很多，安迪。但正如我所說，我們看到幾乎所有垂直領域都出現了成長。所以是的，資料中心很強大，但是我們還有很多其他垂直領域也非常非常強大。您提到了其中之一：教育。

Education has been strong. Certainly, ESSER funding was a tailwind there. But even in the fourth quarter, where ESSER funding is now, at least from an order standpoint, behind us, we still saw growth in the fourth quarter. And I would tell you, the pipeline there in education is very, very robust.

教育事業發展強勁。毫無疑問，ESSER 資金在那裡起到了順風作用。但即使在第四季度，至少從訂單的角度來看，ESSER 的融資已經結束，但我們仍然看到第四季度的成長。我想告訴你們，那裡的教育管道非常非常健全。

So look, as far as the -- do we think there's opportunities that comps get hard. Look, we still believe there's tremendous opportunities here for growth in all verticals, right? If you think about the mega trends around decarbonization and energy efficiency, they continue to intensify. You think about reshoring activity in the United States, that continues to intensify. If you think about the multiyear CapEx cycle with mega projects, that continues to have momentum.

那麼，就我們是否認為競爭會變得艱難而言，存在著機會呢？看，我們仍然相信這裡所有垂直領域都存在巨大的成長機會，對嗎？如果你考慮一下脫碳和能源效率方面的大趨勢，你會發現它們還在繼續加強。想想美國的回流活動，這種活動正在持續加強。如果您考慮大型專案的多年資本支出週期，您會發現其將繼續保持發展勢頭。

So we're very bullish on our Commercial HVAC business. I would tell you that the portfolio of products and the innovation that we have there, and I know I said in my prepared remarks, you are green for green. When you have a solution that's very sustainable for the planet and has a great payback for the customer, it's the greatest place to be. And that's what we have at Trane Technologies. So I'm very bullish sure.

因此，我們對我們的商用暖通空調業務非常看好。我會告訴你們，我們的產品組合和創新，我知道我在準備好的發言中說過，你們是綠色的。當你擁有一個對地球非常可持續並且能為客戶帶來豐厚回報的解決方案時，這就是最偉大的成就。這正是特靈科技所擁有的。所以我當然非常看好。

Very helpful, Dave. And then just focusing on margin. APAC margin was obviously surprisingly strong in Q4, maybe just comment on the durability of those margins in '25. And then I think your incremental margin dropped a little in Americas and EMEA in Q4. Is that just -- you mentioned transport mix, is that really what it is?

非常有幫助，戴夫。然後只關注利潤。亞太地區的利潤率在第四季度顯然出人意料地強勁，或許只是對這些利潤率在 25 年的持久性的評論。然後我認為你們第四季在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的增量利潤率略有下降。那隻是——您提到的運輸組合，事實確實如此嗎？

But you also talked about investments quite a bit, could you quantify how much they were and what you're thinking for '25?

但是您也談了很多關於投資的事情，您能量化一下投資金額嗎？

Andy, I'll start. So to Asia, we we expected sequential improvement in Asia in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. And our team in Asia just to -- even outperformed those expectations. It's still going to take some time to continue to normalize in China, the tightened credit policy.

安迪，我先開始。對亞洲而言，我們預期第四季亞洲的表現將比第三季有所改善。我們在亞洲的團隊甚至超越了這些預期。中國緊縮的信貸政策仍需一段時間才能繼續正常化。

So that will probably extend into the first half of 2025. But their decisions were the right decisions, and you're seeing that come through on sequential improvement versus what we saw in the third quarter.

因此，這種情況可能會延續到 2025 年上半年。但他們的決定是正確的，而且與第三季相比，我們可以看到，情況有了連續的改善。

Margins, look, that team has just been outstanding in terms of managing their productivity, their investments and ultimately still investing in the business. So let's see where margins go for going forward. There's certainly leading margins across the regions, and it gives us a lot of confidence that EMEA and Americas can continue to grow their margins into the future as well, given -- just to recall, our Asia business is largely Commercial HVAC that they're selling into the region.

利潤率，你看，那個團隊在管理生產力、投資以及最終仍在業務上投資方面表現非常出色。那麼讓我們看看未來的利潤將會如何。各地區的利潤率肯定是領先的，這讓我們非常有信心，歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及美洲地區的利潤率在未來也能繼續增長，因為——回想一下，我們的亞洲業務主要是商用暖通空調，他們銷往該地區。

For the other markets, very strong results in terms of margin expansion. We're driving all of those business for 25% or better leverage into 2025. We like that framework. The last couple of years, we've -- actually, we've taken the lid off of investments. We're making sure that we can drive strong leverage and also accelerating as many investments as we can, and that's really across all three of our regions.

對於其他市場而言，利潤率擴張的業績非常強勁。我們將推動所有這些業務的槓桿率在 2025 年達到或超過 25%。我們喜歡這個框架。過去幾年，我們實際上已經取消了投資限制。我們正在確保能夠發揮強大的槓桿作用，並盡可能加快投資，這實際上涉及我們三個地區。

Otherwise, I think that hopefully answers the question. We got a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to grow the margins and really the leverage what the investments we're making.

否則，我認為這有望回答這個問題。我們非常有信心，我們將能夠提高利潤率，並真正發揮我們投資的槓桿作用。

Yes. I'll just add that, look, I'm super proud of the team in Asia. I know Asia, it's only 8% of our revenue, 50% of that is China, 50% is outside the rest of Asia. But I mean just great performance. I mean the rest of Asia had 10% growth, and it had order growth in the high teens.

是的。我只想補充一點，我為亞洲隊感到非常自豪。我知道亞洲只占我們收入的 8%，其中 50% 來自中國，50% 來自亞洲其他地區。但我指的是出色的表現。我的意思是亞洲其他地區的成長了 10%，而訂單成長率達到了百分之十幾。

So a very strong performance there. And as commented, the team and China just executed very well, implementing our new credit policy. And the credit tightening is the right reason, and I was very -- the right prudent thing to do.

那裡的表現非常強勁。正如評論的那樣，團隊和中國執行得非常好，實施了我們的新信貸政策。信貸緊縮是正確的原因，而且我採取了非常謹慎的正確做法。

And I was very clear on the third quarter, if we don't have an order, we're not going to -- we don't have a down payment. We're not going to take the order. And in the fourth quarter, we made some adjustments to our backlog to make sure that everything in the backlog had down payments in it. So that team is just executing at a very high level.

我對第三季的情況非常清楚，如果我們沒有訂單，我們就不會——我們就不會付定金。我們不會接受該訂單。在第四季度，我們對積壓訂單做了一些調整，以確保所有積壓訂單中都有預付款。因此該團隊的執行水準非常高。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

Dave, can you talk about the margin -- just coming back to the service conversation at the front of the call, just trying to understand the margin opportunity in the Service business over time. I know there's a lot of investments in technology to make technicians more efficient, maybe predictive maintenance, I'm hoping if you could just speak to the runway there just given obviously the third of the business and the installed base is growing quite rapidly. And a few years from now, it could be quite larger. So if you can talk about that.

戴夫，您能談談利潤率嗎？我知道我們在技術方面投入了大量資金，以提高技術人員的效率，也許是預測性維護，我希望你能談談那裡的跑道，顯然三分之一的業務和安裝基數正在迅速增長。幾年之後，這個規模可能會更大。如果你可以談論這個的話。

Amit, it's Chris. I'll start. Look, we like the margins in the Service business. It's higher margins when you think about what we're delivering to customers and making sure that their products are running efficiently. As Dave has described in the past, the service business is rapidly evolving from running to go fix something that's not working effectively, to now making sure that the equipment is always optimized right?

阿米特，我是克里斯。我先開始。看，我們喜歡服務業務的利潤率。當你考慮我們向客戶提供的產品並確保他們的產品高效運作時，利潤就會更高。正如戴夫過去所描述的，服務業務正在迅速發展，從去修復無法有效運作的設備，到現在確保設備始終處於最佳化狀態，對嗎？

It may be running. You may think it's operating well, but the fact is it may be operating inefficiently, and therefore, that's a really nice opportunity for us.

它可能正在運行。你可能認為它運作良好，但事實上它可能運作效率低下，因此，這對我們來說是一個非常好的機會。

So it gives us a lot of confidence that we should be driving organic leverage 25% or better. And reminder, Service is a third of the enterprise revenues. It remains a third of the enterprise revenues. And you're right, the investments that we've been making across our portfolio also include investments in our Service portfolio.

因此，我們非常有信心，我們應該能夠實現 25% 或更高的有機槓桿率。提醒一下，服務佔企業收入的三分之一。它仍佔企業收入的三分之一。你說得對，我們在整個投資組合中進行的投資也包括對服務投資組合的投資。

So think about service technicians, think about front-end tools, digital in terms of diagnostics. It's an area that -- again, that's a great area to take the lid off and keep investing in that part of our portfolio.

因此，考慮一下服務技術人員，考慮一下前端工具，考慮一下診斷方面的數位化。再次強調，這是一個值得我們揭開面紗並繼續投資我們投資組合這一部分的好領域。

Yes. I mean one of the things that we announced in the quarter too was the closure of an acquisition, BrainBox AI, and that's really going to help our service business as well in the future. So if you think about today, we have 42,000 roughly connected buildings. We have well over 2 million connected assets. We're getting a lot of data at the building level and at the asset level, and we'll call that structured data.

是的。我的意思是，我們在本季宣布的一件事是完成收購 BrainBox AI，這將在未來對我們服務業務產生很大的幫助。所以如果你想想今天，我們有 42,000 座大致相連的建築物。我們擁有超過200萬項關聯資產。我們在建築層級和資產層面獲取了大量數據，我們稱之為結構化數據。

What AI does is it augments that with unstructured data. And when you combine that, that's really where you're able to make buildings operate more efficiently.

人工智慧所做的就是利用非結構化資料來增強這一點。當你將它們結合起來時，你就能真正讓建築物更有效率地運作。

So our service teams will be a big part of that in the future. And I know you've probably heard me speak in the past about demand side management. Look, we've done hundreds of thousands of energy audits, and we know that about 30% of the energy consumed after the meter is being wasted.

因此，我們的服務團隊將來會發揮重要作用。我知道您可能以前聽過我談論需求面管理。你看，我們已經做了數十萬次能源審計，我們知道大約有 30％ 的電錶後消耗的能源被浪費了。

And our goal is to help decarbonize that built environment and to get everything back to where the -- it was designed to operate. And if we could save that 30%, there's so much opportunity there well into the future.

我們的目標是幫助建築環境脫碳，讓一切恢復到設計運作的狀態。如果我們能夠節省那 30%，那麼未來就會有很多機會。

And then just related to that, because obviously, paybacks are so compelling today, which is what's driving a lot of the growth. But there is this expectation power prices will continue to go up over the next several years, if the BrainBox acquisition probably allows the equipment to run even more efficiently.

然後與此相關的是，因為顯然，今天的回報如此引人注目，而這正是推動大量成長的因素。但如果 BrainBox 的收購可能使設備運作更加高效，那麼預計未來幾年電價將繼續上漲。

Can you just talk about how you think the payback map evolves over the next few years? Because there's the question you routinely get is, how long is it sustainable, but if paybacks can actually improve, I wonder if this growth can actually reaccelerate?

您能談談您認為未來幾年報酬圖將如何演變嗎？因為你常被問到這樣的問題：這種成長能持續多久？ 但如果回報真的能夠改善，我想知道這種成長是否真的能夠重新加速？

I think you're spot on. I don't think anyone is projecting that the cost of energy is -- or at least electricity is going to go down in the future, right? So if you think of the paybacks, it's actually going to become more punitive if you're not running the system the way it was designed. So the paybacks will actually increase.

我認為你說得很對。我認為沒有人預測未來能源成本——或至少電費——會下降，對嗎？因此，如果你考慮到回報，你會發現，如果你不按照設計的方式運行系統，它實際上會變得更具懲罰性。因此回報實際上會增加。

So we're -- we think there's a tremendous opportunity in demand side management, and we're executing to that strategy. BrainBox can be a big part of us, it's a small business today, but we've been really good at taking these technologies. In this case, the technologies on the software side and scaling it within our channels. So we're really excited about the growth that we're going to see in the future from it.

因此我們認為需求面管理存在巨大機遇，我們正在執行這項策略。BrainBox 對我們來說非常重要，雖然它現在是一家小公司，但我們非常擅長運用這些技術。在這種情況下，軟體方面的技術可以在我們的管道內擴展。因此，我們對未來即將實現的成長感到非常興奮。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Congrats on a very strong year. I want to go back -- I mean, you talked a lot about energy audits, it just makes a ton of sense. It seems like that's what drives the sales cycle. Do you measure internally the number of energy audits that you do each quarter? And is there such a thing as thinking about that as I'll, just call it, like frontlog debt?

恭喜您度過了非常豐碩的一年。我想回想一下——我的意思是，你談了很多關於能源審計的事情，這很有道理。這似乎就是推動銷售週期的因素。您是否內部測量過每季進行的能源審計的次數？有沒有這樣一種想法，我姑且稱之為前期債務？

Energy audits are up X% this quarter and that gives you some additional confidence on the backlog -- or on the front log.

本季的能源審計增加了 X%，這讓您對積壓工作或前期工作更有信心。

It's a great question, Scott. But obviously, we have a lot built into our operating system around our energy managed audits that we do. So I won't disclose too much there. But absolutely, we track a lot of different metrics, okay, and a lot of them are leading metrics and that would be one of them, but we track a lot of others as well.

這是一個很好的問題，斯科特。但顯然，我們在營運系統中已經融入了大量圍繞我們所做的能源管理審計的內容。因此我不會透露太多。但當然，我們追蹤很多不同的指標，其中很多都是領先指標，這是其中之一，但我們也追蹤很多其他指標。

At the end of the day, when you're connected to an asset, you're going to make sure the asset is performing the way it was designed, and it's not wasting precious energy. And when you get -- when you show that to customers and they start to understand it, it becomes very compelling.

歸根結底，當您連接到某項資產時，您要確保該資產按照設計的方式運行，並且不會浪費寶貴的能源。當你向客戶展示這一點並且他們開始理解它時，它就會變得非常引人注目。

And now with the addition of not only the structure or machine learning data that we've been able to drive in the past, this unstructured data that we bring into the equation with BrainBox, it really -- we're able to drive results that we didn't think were possible three or four years ago.

現在，我們不僅能夠處理過去已經能夠處理的結構化或機器學習數據，而且還能夠處理 BrainBox 中引入的非結構化數據，這確實能夠推動以下結果：三四年前我們還不認為這有可能實現。

Can you use AI now to do a digital twin meaningfully faster than you could in the past? Are we there? Are we at that point yet?

你現在能否利用人工智慧比過去更快創造數位孿生？我們到了嗎？我們已經到達那個地步了嗎？

Yes. We do a lot of work with digital twins. I'm not sure if you saw when you went to 55 Water Street because I think we demonstrated one there. The speed is always getting better and the tools that we're using. Obviously, we're using all the tools that we have available to us, and AI is one of those tools. So it's certainly -- there's other tools as well that have really sped up that process.

是的。我們在數位孿生領域做了很多工作。我不確定當你去 55 Water Street 時是否看到了，因為我認為我們在那裡演示了一個。速度和我們使用的工具都在不斷進步。顯然，我們正在使用我們可用的所有工具，人工智慧就是其中之一。所以確實還有其他工具可以加快這一進程。

But it's -- when you can see it visually and you see the digital twin and then you see the before and after, it's very, very compelling for the customer to understand the impact that we're able to have by constantly monitoring the equipment and constantly making sure it's at the at the peak performance levels.

但是，當你可以直觀地看到它，看到數位孿生，然後看到前後對比時，客戶就會非常非常有信心地了解我們透過不斷監控設備並不斷確保其處於最佳性能水平。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

So look, for better or for worse, your stock at times sent to trade the sentiments surrounding AI, CapEx and data centers. I guess just maybe as you -- as you think through like the trajectory of your data center business from here, maybe just give us some color on how you think that you expect that to progress. And then also just on your Commercial HVAC backlog, are you still well above normal on that backlog in terms of how long cycle it is? Or is it starting to normalize?

因此，無論好壞，您的股票有時都會受到圍繞人工智慧、資本支出和資料中心的情緒影響。我想也許當您思考從現在開始的資料中心業務的發展軌跡時，也許可以告訴我們您認為它會如何發展。然後，僅就您的商用 HVAC 積壓訂單而言，從週期長短來看，您的積壓訂單是否仍遠高於正常水平？或者說它開始正常化了？

Yes. Why don't I start with the backlog, I'll get to the data center question. Look, our book-to-bill in 2024 was over 1, it was 102%. And our backlog year over year was relatively flat, it's down a little bit. What everyone needs to understand is we had a couple of adjustments that occurred within the backlog, right?

是的。我為什麼不從積壓問題開始呢，我會討論資料中心的問題。你看，我們 2024 年的訂單出貨比超過 1，是 102%。我們的積壓訂單量較去年同期相對持平，略有下降。每個人都需要了解的是，我們對積壓工作做了一些調整，對嗎？

There's really (inaudible) one is currency worked against us all year. Two is, I've been very clear in Asia, specifically in China, that if we don't have a down payment, we're not including something in our backlog. So we adjusted that out of our backlog.

確實（聽不清楚）有一種貨幣全年都在對我們不利。二是，我在亞洲，特別是在中國，已經講得很清楚了，如果我們沒有首付，我們就不會在積壓訂單中包含任何東西。因此，我們從積壓訂單中對此進行了調整。

And then the third is the normalization of our of our transport businesses, which have been under pressure all year. That accounts for about $0.5 billion of backlog adjustments that we took in the year. So if you think about it, our backlog would actually be up year over year versus what we're reporting right now.

第三是我們的運輸業務的正常化，我們的運輸業務全年都承受著壓力。這相當於我們今年進行的積壓調整的約 5 億美元。所以如果你仔細想想，你會發現與我們目前報告的數字相比，我們的積壓訂單實際上比去年同期有所增加。

That said, our backlog is very, very elevated, which gives us a lot of visibility into 2025, and that's why Chris and I could speak with so much confidence about the guide that we're putting forward. It gives us great visibility. And the other thing that we track a lot of is the pipelines, and these are orders before they become orders, that activity remains very, very robust.

儘管如此，我們的積壓工作量非常非常大，這讓我們對 2025 年有了很大的了解，這就是為什麼克里斯和我可以如此自信地談論我們提出的指南。它為我們帶來了極大的可見性。我們大量追蹤的另一件事是管道，這些是訂單，在它們成為訂單之前，這些活動仍然非常非常活躍。

As far as data centers go, look, data centers have been a strong vertical for us for decades, and they'll be a strong vertical for us well into the future. As far as the news about new competitor coming out of China and the impact that will have, we'll see. I can't comment on that, I could just comment on what we're seeing right now. And we're seeing a lot of growth in data centers, and we're seeing a lot of pipeline activity in data centers.

就資料中心而言，幾十年來，資料中心一直是我們強大的垂直領域，並且在未來很長一段時間內，它仍將是我們強大的垂直領域。至於有關中國出現新競爭對手的消息以及將產生的影響，我們拭目以待。我對此無法發表評論，我只能對我們現在看到的情況發表評論。我們看到資料中心的大量成長，我們看到資料中心中有很多管道活動。

I had the opportunity to listen to the earnings call of meta last night. And if you listen to them, they would say that they're building out their infrastructure, and that's part of a competitive advantage that they have. So it doesn't appear as though they're going to be slowing anything down. But we'll wait and see. But everyone needs to understand that we're much more than just data centers.

昨晚有幸聆聽了 Meta 的財報電話會議。如果你聽他們說，他們會說他們正在建造基礎設施，這是他們競爭優勢的一部分。因此看起來他們不會放慢任何速度。但我們還是拭目以待吧。但每個人都需要明白，我們不只是資料中心。

Data centers are strong. They've been strong in the past. We're really good in that vertical. But we're really good in 13 other verticals that we track very, very closely.

數據中心非常強大。他們過去一直很強大。我們在這個垂直領域確實很擅長。但我們在密切關注的其他 13 個垂直領域也表現優異。

Super helpful and let's you to go over to us for background. The quick question follow-up there, just maybe just a tariff question. Any comments on like how you see this playing out? And any thoughts and your potential exposure there?

非常有幫助，讓您向我們了解背景。這裡的快速後續問題可能只是關稅問題。您對於此事的進展有何看法？您有什麼想法以及您在那裡的潛在曝光機會嗎？

Yes. I mean, good question, Joe. Look, we -- for decades now, we've had a manufacturing strategy of in region for region. So you think about in the Americas, we have a plant in Mexico. We have over 20 plants in the United States.

是的。我的意思是，喬，你問得好。你看，幾十年來，我們一直實行區域性製造策略。想想在美洲，我們在墨西哥有一家工廠。我們在美國有 20 多家工廠。

We have plants throughout Europe. We have plants throughout Asia. Some in China, some outside of China. So look, we've -- in the past, we've dealt with tariffs. Should it happen, we'll react.

我們在歐洲各地都有工廠。我們在亞洲各地都有工廠。有些在中國，有些在中國以外。所以你看，我們——過去，我們已經處理過關稅問題了。一旦發生這種情況，我們將作出反應。

Do I think they could impact our supply chain? For sure, there's a little bit of flexibility there. But they will have an impact.

我認為它們會影響我們的供應鏈嗎？當然，這裡有一點彈性。但它們會產生影響。

But I think we've been able -- part of our operating system is we understand our cost inputs. And if we see something change, we're going to react, and we're going to act very quickly to make sure that we stay margin neutral over time.

但我認為我們已經能夠——我們作業系統的一部分是我們了解我們的成本投入。如果我們發現有什麼變化，我們就會做出反應，我們會迅速採取行動，以確保我們在長期內保持利潤中性。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Always interesting times. So I guess just on this resi guide. Roughly, I don't know, 4%-ish on the mix benefit, which you'll call volume. A 1.5%, maybe 2% headwind from prebuy, this is all annual. So what are you thinking about like the market on like a volume basis this year, just like from an underlying demand and replacement events perspective, if you will?

總是有趣的時光。所以我猜只是在這個住宿指南上。大致來說，我不知道，混合收益為 4% 左右，你稱之為數量。預購帶來的 1.5% 甚至 2% 的逆風，這都是年度數據。那麼，如果您願意的話，從潛在需求和替代事件的角度來看，您對今年的市場交易量有何看法？

Yes, Steve, it's Chris. You're right. There's three elements that really come into the guide of around mid-single-digit revenue growth for residential. The first one would be that mixed tailwind from the A2L refrigerant change, right? You can think of that as maybe around 4 points.

是的，史蒂夫，我是克里斯。你說得對。有三個因素確實可以指導住宅收入達到中等個位數的成長。第一個是 A2L 冷媒變化帶來的混合順風，對嗎？您可以將其想像為大約 4 點。

High single-digit price on 65% of the portfolio multiplied by, say, three-fourths of the year impact, gets you around 4 points.

65% 的投資組合的高個位數價格乘以一年中四分之三的影響，可得到大約 4 個點。

The view around a GDP+ framework would be the second element. Think of that as maybe 3 to 4 points of growth from returning to GDP. IRA tailwinds, right, that money is at the state level and it's really starting to be deployed. That could be a tailwind for 2025. And then items around consumer confidence, tax cuts. Those are all things that could be beneficial to the -- to a GDP+ framework for the year.

圍繞 GDP+ 框架的觀點將是第二個要素。可以認為這相當於 GDP 恢復 3 到 4 個點的成長。IRA 順風，對的，這些資金是在州一級，而且它真的開始被部署了。這可能會成為 2025 年的順風。然後是關於消費者信心、減稅等問題。這些都是對今年的 GDP+ 框架有益的事。

And then the third element would be that prebuy dynamic, which is probably around 3 percentage points of a headwind. So altogether, you get into that [4 to 5-ish] range on growth, which is our guide for the year around residential.

第三個要素是預購動態，這可能帶來約 3 個百分點的逆風。所以總的來說，你會進入 [4 到 5 左右] 的增長範圍，這是我們全年住宅的指導。

But to be fair, if it turned out that things were softer in the markets, and it wasn't necessarily growth, but it was flattish, really, the impact to our enterprise revenues would be less than 1 point. It would be 70 or 80 basis points. And we really feel comfortable we've got that and it's manageable within our guidance for the year.

但公平地說，如果事實證明市場情況較弱，而且不一定是成長，而是持平，那麼對我們企業收入的影響實際上將不到 1 個百分點。這將是70或80個基點。我們真的感到很放心，我們已經做到了這一點，而且這也在我們今年的指導範圍內。

Yes, that makes sense. What do you guys see in light commercial? What's your expectation for the year on light commercial?

是的，這很有道理。大家對於輕商業有什麼看法呢？您對今年的輕型商用車有何期望？

Yes. It's -- we certainly think applied markets are going to grow faster than the unitary markets will -- for 2025, we'll see where it plays out. The best thing about Trane Technologies is we've got the broadest portfolio of products.

是的。我們確實認為應用市場的成長速度將比單一市場更快，到 2025 年，我們將拭​​目以待它的發展方向。特靈科技的最大優勢在於我們擁有最廣泛的產品組合。

And unitary versus applied, it's harder and harder to figure out what the need for the customer is. We're looking at a solution, and many of the tons will involve multiple products to ultimately deliver the energy saves that they need. So let's see, but probably more growth in applied for 2025 than unitary.

而與單一的和應用的相比，弄清楚客戶的需求變得越來越困難。我們正在尋找一種解決方案，許多噸重貨物將涉及多種產品，以最終實現所需的節能效果。所以讓我們拭目以待，但 2025 年的應用成長可能比單一的成長還要多。

Okay. And just sorry, one last thing, given Services is such a topic. Dave, you said like 8 to 10 times, I think, the multiplier on Services. That just seems like a big number for an asset that has like, I don't know, a 30-year useful life that basically people are spending that much money every like three years to service. Is that really like the considered an annuity?

好的。最後，非常抱歉，因為服務就是這樣一個主題。戴夫，我認為您說的服務乘數是 8 到 10 倍。對於使用壽命 30 年的資產來說，這似乎是一個很大的數字，基本上人們每三年就會花這麼多錢來維護它。這真的像年金嗎？

Or is that more like every five years, they do like a major refurb or something like that? Like how visible is that revenue? Because it just seems like a really big number for a guy or an equipment owner to spend relative to this initial buy?

或者更像是每五年進行一次大規模整修或類似的事情？這些收入有多明顯？因為對於一個人或設備擁有者來說，相對於最初的購買來說，這筆錢似乎真的很大？

I just understand 8% to 10% over the life of the asset, right? So the asset is going to add 30 years and the added cost $1 million, think of it about $8 million in service over that time period. But yes, I mean there's the maintenance that happens.

我剛才理解的是，資產壽命期間的成長率是 8% 到 10%，對嗎？因此，該資產將增加 30 年，增加的成本為 100 萬美元，想想在這段時間內的服務費用約為 800 萬美元。但是是的，我的意思是確實需要維護。

And then obviously, at some point in the useful life, you tend to do our renewals for it, where you'll change out controls or make it run more efficiently just because technology continues to advance. So we're very comfortable with that number. We've done a lot of analysis on that with the old base. So I'm very comfortable with the 8 to 10 times over the life of the asset.

然後顯然，在使用壽命的某個階段，您傾向於對其進行更新，因為技術不斷進步，所以您會更換控制裝置或使其運行得更有效率。因此我們對這個數字非常滿意。我們已經根據舊基礎對此進行了大量分析。因此，我對資產壽命的 8 到 10 倍感到非常滿意。

Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑弗瑞‧斯普拉格 (Jeffrey Sprague)，垂直研究。

It's a little chilly. It's warmed up recently. But yes, we're not needing any HVAC in the -- well, we don't need an AC, we need some H., that's what we need.

有點冷。最近氣溫回暖了。但是的，我們不需要任何 HVAC——好吧，我們不需要 AC，我們需要一些 H.，這就是我們需要的。

You probably need a heat pump, Jeff. But go ahead.

你可能需要一個熱泵，傑夫。但請繼續。

Yes. Yes. So a lot of ground covered, a little maybe nits for me. Just first on backlog. I think you include everything in backlog regardless of how far out it reaches.

是的。是的。涵蓋的內容非常多，但對我來說可能還是有點困難。首先是積壓工作。我認為你應該將所有東西都納入積壓工作中，不管它延伸多遠。

Maybe you could just give a little color on the backlog staging, what's deliverable into '25, and how far out it does reach.

或許您可以稍微介紹一下積壓工作的情況、25 年可以交付什麼以及可以達到多遠。

Yes, Jeff, it's Chris. I'll start. So $6.75 billion of backlog at the end of 2024. Again, the majority of that, call it, 90% is going to be driven by Commercial HVAC globally. And then of that, it's going to be or applied systems.

是的，傑夫，我是克里斯。我先開始。因此到 2024 年底積壓訂單將達到 67.5 億美元。再次強調，其中大部分，也就是 90% 將由全球商用暖通空調系統 (HVAC) 驅動。然後，它將是或應用系統。

That backlog, the majority of it will revenue in 2025. So that's actually fairly consistent with how we've seen the backlog in terms of the growth over the last few years, that the majority will turn in, in 2025. There'll be a small amount that will push out into 2026, and that's really at the customer demand. But the majority of that backlog will turn within 12 months.

這些積壓訂單中的大部分將在 2025 年實現收入。因此，這實際上與我們過去幾年的成長積壓相當一致，大多數積壓訂單將在 2025 年完成。會有少量產量延後到 2026 年，這確實是根據客戶需求而定。但大部分積壓案件將在 12 個月內解決。

And Jeff, remember, we don't have Services in the backlog.

傑夫，請記住，我們沒有積壓的服務。

Right. And the majority doesn't mean 55% means 80 or 90 or something like that, it sounds like.

正確的。而且，大多數聽起來不像是 55% 而是 80% 或 90% 之類的。

Yes. And then it's not a tick above 51% or 50%. But no, absolutely right.

是的。然後它就不會高於 51％ 或 50％ 了。但事實並非如此，完全正確。

Yes. And could you just also just really in the weeds on resi, how -- how do the two-step channel perform in the quarter versus your internal channels as we think about all the pre-buy generations we went through here?

是的。您能否真正詳細地介紹一下，當我們考慮我們經歷的所有預購代時，兩步驟通路在本季的表現與您的內部通路相比如何？

The pre-buy obviously happened in the two steps with our IWTs, independent wholesale distributors, Think of that prebuy, that $75 million to $100 million, Jeff, as between Q3 and Q4, right? We don't think it was all in Q4. It's hard to tell, but -- because we're estimating. But we think probably about 50% was in Q3, 50% of it was in Q4.

預購顯然分兩個步驟進行，包括與我們的IWT（獨立批發分銷商）的預購，傑夫，想想那筆7500 萬美元到1 億美元的預購，是在第三季度和第四季度之間，對嗎？我們認為這並非全部發生在第四季。這很難說，但是——因為我們正在估計。但我們認為大概 50% 發生在第三季度，50% 發生在第四季。

But we also think, as Chris said earlier, that the majority of that will be impacted in the first quarter. Some of it will probably go into the second quarter, but we can give you guys an update on that when we get that point.

但正如克里斯之前所說，我們也認為，大部分影響將在第一季受到影響。其中一部分可能會進入第二季度，但到那時我們就可以向大家提供最新消息。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Lots of questions on services, so here's another one. So I probably should know this, but what is the mix between predictive, connected type services versus, I guess, transactional servers, where there's a phone call from a customer where there's parts involved, et cetera?

關於服務有很多問題，所以這裡還有另一個。所以我可能應該知道這一點，但是預測性、連接性服務與交易伺服器之間的組合是什麼？

So just wondering what that mix is. And does it matter? I mean is there growth differential? Is there a margin differential between connected versus transactional?

所以只是想知道那混合物是什麼。這重要嗎？我的意思是存在成長差異嗎？關聯交易和交易之間的利潤率是否有差異？

Yes, it really doesn't matter. But we haven't disclosed that, Nigel, like for lot of different reasons, but we're strong in both. I mean, obviously, we want to encourage our customers to have agreements because -- we make sure that the assets, we do more maintenance then to make sure that the assets are performing.

是的，這確實無所謂。但是奈傑爾，我們還沒有透露這一點，原因有很多，但我們在這兩方面都很強大。我的意思是，顯然，我們希望鼓勵我們的客戶達成協議，因為——我們確保資產，我們會進行更多的維護，以確保資產正常運作。

But obviously, we're going to respond if we get just a cold call saying, hey, my system is down, can you help me. And then what we'll do is if that happens, the goal is to make sure that we try to sign that customer up for a more comprehensive service agreement over time.

但顯然，如果我們接到一個陌生電話，說“嘿，我的系統壞了，你能幫我嗎”，我們就會做出回應。如果發生這種情況，我們的目標是確保我們嘗試與該客戶簽訂更全面的服務協議。

Okay. And is there a margin differential between whether the contract is more transactionA2L?

好的。而且合約多於交易A2L之間，利潤是否有差異？

Yes. I'll say no, but there might be one if it's a cold call, okay, depending on what's going on. We try not to, because someone's in a doer need, charge them more. That's usually not a long-term way to grow a business. So we try to be competitive in both just because we want the customer for life.

是的。我會說沒有，但如果是主動聯繫的話可能會有，好吧，這取決於具體情況。我們盡量不因為某人有行動需要，就向他們收取更高的費用。這通常不是發展業務的長期途徑。因此，我們努力在兩個領域保持競爭力，因為我們希望擁有終身客戶。

Okay. And then a question on BrainBox. I can't be if -- I said BrainBox AI. It seems like it's quite a chunky deal. It looks like $30 million or so EV.

好的。然後是關於 BrainBox 的一個問題。我不能如果——我說的是 BrainBox AI。看起來這是一筆相當大的交易。它的 EV 看起來價值約為 3,000 萬美元。

So just wondering if you could just give any details on the size, growth profile? How you can like really really expand this business? And then a note accounting question for Chris, I think this sounds like a very tangible heavy business. So just curious if the intangible amortization is coming down when we think about that step down in the Trane amortization from 15 years ago?

我只是想知道您是否可以提供有關規模和成長概況的詳細資訊？您怎樣才能真正拓展這項業務？然後是向克里斯提出的一個票據會計問題，我認為這聽起來像是一項非常切實的繁重工作。所以，我們很好奇，當我們考慮 15 年前 Trane 攤銷的下降時，無形資產攤銷是否會下降？

Yes. Nigel, I'll start with BrainBox. So less than $300 million from a purchase price. We had another meaningful acquisition that we closed on in the first week of January like we did with brain box, actually over in Europe acquiring one of our independent channels there very similar to a strategy that we have in the US. So -- but yes, less than that from an EV perspective.

是的。奈傑爾，我將從 BrainBox 開始。因此購買價格不到3億美元。我們進行了另一項有意義的收購，就像我們收購Brain Box 一樣，我們在1 月的第一周完成了這項收購，實際上我們在歐洲收購了那裡的一個獨立管道，這與我們在美國採取的策略非常相似。所以 — — 但從電動車的角度來看，確實比這個數字少。

And not dissimilar to Nuvolo in 2024 with early-stage technology company, has a lot of amortization expense. We're expecting that to happen in 2025 for BrainBox. It's part of the guide in terms of the FX headwind.

與 2024 年的 Nuvolo 類似，這家早期科技公司有大量攤銷費用。我們預計 BrainBox 將在 2025 年實現這一目標。這是外匯逆風指南的一部分。

And the amortization from the newly acquired business will have about a $0.20 negative impact on earnings. -- and we've got that incorporated in our guide. But you're right, that's the accounting rules around the acquisition.

新收購業務的攤銷將對收益產生約 0.20 美元的負面影響。 ——我們已將其納入我們的指南中。但你是對的，這就是圍繞收購的會計規則。

On the accounting rules going back to Trane, you're right, we start stepping down on the Trane amortization in 2025. It's around $25 million or $30 million of lower amortization expense, that's really being offset fully with the investments we've made over the last few years in CapEx and the rising depreciation that comes from that. We've also had a few acquisitions that have some higher amortization as well.

關於追溯 Trane 的會計規則，您是對的，我們將從 2025 年開始減少 Trane 的攤銷。較低的攤銷費用約為 2500 萬美元或 3000 萬美元，這實際上完全被我們過去幾年在資本支出方面的投資以及由此產生的折舊增加所抵消。我們也進行過一些攤銷額較高的收購。

So in 2025, the net impact of that benefit from the Trane amortization is really offset and zero. Let's see this in 2026. It's a bigger step down in '26 on Trane amortization, we'll update you then for next year. But for 2025, it's really a neutral impact.

因此，到 2025 年，特靈攤銷帶來的收益的淨影響實際上被抵消了，為零。讓我們在 2026 年見證這一點。特靈 (Trane) 的攤銷在 26 年出現了更大幅度的下降，我們將在明年向您通報最新情況。但對 2025 年來說，這確實是中性影響。

Yes. And as far as the growth rates go, Nigel, we're pretty excited about it. It's small today, but we like these technology companies that we can scale. We have 42,000 buildings, right?

是的。就成長率而言，奈傑爾，我們對此感到非常興奮。如今，它規模很小，但我們喜歡這些可以擴大規模的科技公司。我們有 42,000 棟建築物，對嗎？

So there's 42,000 potential customers that we already have the data on and we're going to start running algorithms against it to understand what the increase could be with structured and unstructured data together. So this is going to be exciting. And like I said, it's going to be a nice tail for our service business earlier.

我們已經擁有 42,000 名潛在客戶的數據，我們將開始對其運行演算法，以了解結構化和非結構化數據結合在一起能帶來多大的成長。這將會非常令人興奮。正如我之前所說，這將為我們早期的服務業務帶來良好的結果。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Maybe just circle back on the prebuy. It seems like it was relatively uneventful, at least in terms of how you were positioned. But if you just step back, anything that surprised you in terms of the demand, the timing? And there's always this nuance about competitive positioning, who cuts over first. But just the postmortem, was there anything that you'd call out in terms of what you were expecting or what didn't play out?

也許只是回到預購階段。看起來事情相對來說沒有什麼波瀾，至少從你的定位來看是如此。但如果您退一步考慮，在需求和時機方面有什麼令您感到驚訝的嗎？在競爭定位方面總是存在著這種細微差別，即誰能先接手。但是只是事後分析，您是否能指出您所期望的或未發生的事？

Not really, Deane. I mean we've said for a long time, we thought it would be a modest prebuy, it was. The team did a nice job of executing the changeover to the A2L refrigerant. We're fully operational on 454B product now.

不是這樣的，迪恩。我的意思是，我們很久以前就說過，我們認為這將是一次適度的預購，事實也確實如此。該團隊出色地完成了 A2L 冷媒的轉換。我們目前已全面投入 454B 產品生產。

We have the capability of running mixed model lines in our factories, so we can support the aftermarket for 410, which will be needed. But not a lot. I mean it was pretty much as we predicted.

我們有能力在工廠中運行混合型號生產線，因此我們可以支援所需的 410 售後市場。但不是很多。我的意思是它和我們預測的差不多。

The only thing I would say maybe a little bit different is we probably had more of the prebuy in Q3 than we anticipated. I didn't realize it was a pre-buy until we got into Q4. So that would have been the only maybe oddity.

我唯一想說的可能有點不同的是，我們第三季的預購量可能比我們預期的要多。直到進入第四季度，我才意識到這是一次預購。所以這可能是唯一的奇怪之處。

But it makes sense though, too. Why would you wait until the fourth quarter if you were going to do a prebuy and you might not have products. We probably saw more in Q3 than I anticipated. But again, we're talking about relatively small numbers that really don't have a big impact on results.

但這也是有道理的。如果您要進行預購而且可能沒有產品，為什麼要等到第四季呢？我們在第三季看到的可能比我預期的要多。但再次強調，我們討論的是相對較小的數字，它們實際上不會對結果產生重大影響。

Good to hear. And I also like hearing that you say 410 is going to be around for a while because I will be a user of that. So --

很高興聽到。我也很高興聽到您說 410 將會存在一段時間，因為我將成為它的使用者。所以--

We'll help you out. The Trane price, you probably don't need it, we have it worked on for a while. But if you ever do.

我們會幫助你。Trane 的價格，您可能不需要它，我們已經研究了一段時間了。但如果你確實這麼做了。

It may happen to be one of your units. So that's good to hear. And then just second question, just circling back on China and that whole tightening the credit. It seems to have played out exactly the way you said you would be, getting the down payments and maybe some progress payments.

它可能恰好是你的某個單位。我很高興聽到這個消息。然後是第二個問題，回到中國和整個信貸緊縮問題。事情似乎正如你所說的那樣發展了，你收到了首付款，也許還有一些進度款。

But did you -- when I hear about tightening credit, it also makes me think that you actually turned down some customers or maybe shying away from particular verticals. So has there been any selectivity going on maybe related to this credit sensitivity?

但是當我聽到信貸緊縮時，我也認為你實際上拒絕了一些客戶，或者可能避開了特定的垂直行業。那麼是否存在與信貸敏感度相關的選擇性？

Yes. I mean at the end of the day, we're just -- we're looking -- we say -- we call it tightening credit. What we're doing there is we're requiring down payments, right? We're requiring a down payment when the order comes in, and we're requiring additional down payment before the order will ship. So it's not specific to any one vertical or any one channel, that's just the rules of the game that we're operating with.

是的。我的意思是，歸根結底，我們只是 — — 我們正在尋找 — — 我們說 — — 我們稱之為信貸緊縮。我們的做法是要求預付款，對嗎？我們要求在訂單到來時支付預付款，並且我們要求在訂單發貨前支付額外的預付款。所以它並不是針對任何一個垂直產業或任何一個管道，這只是我們運作的遊戲規則。

And the team is doing a nice job of educating our customers as to the why. And -- but we made nice progress in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. We have some work in front of us. in the first half of 2025. But this is our new way of doing business in China.

我們的團隊正在很好地向客戶解釋原因。但與第三季相比，我們在第四季取得了良好的進展。我們面前有一些工作要做。 2025年上半年。但這是我們在中國開展業務的新方式。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Chris, you called out early in the call that if we look at the first quarter earnings contribution as a fraction of the full year outlook you've provided, it's a bit higher than the average. I thought about it differently just given the transport and resi headwinds in the first quarter.

克里斯，您在電話會議開始時就指出，如果我們將第一季的獲利貢獻視為您提供的全年預期的一小部分，它將略高於平均水平。考慮到第一季運輸和住宅方面的不利因素，我對此有不同的看法。

So is there something we're missing that changes as you go into Qs two, three, four? Or is it perhaps some conservatism just about what's longer dated here? Just help us triangulate there.

那麼，在進入第二、三、四個問題時，我們是否遺漏了某些會改變的東西？或者這也許只是針對這裡已過時的事物的一些保守主義？只需幫助我們進行三角測量即可。

Yes. We wanted to call out, Tommy, that EPS as a percent of the full year guide is around 7%. It's normally 15% to 16%. So we are starting this quarter a little bit ahead of that [ three-, five-year ] average, which we just wanted to make sure everyone understood. It's a strong guide for the first quarter, and we have a lot of confidence in it.

是的。湯米，我們想指出的是，每股盈餘佔全年預期的百分比約為 7%。通常為15%到16%。因此，我們本季的開局比三年、五年的平均水平略有提前，我們只是想確保每個人都理解這一點。這是第一季的有力指引，我們對此非常有信心。

As you work throughout the year, though, the transport markets are going to be expected to be down in the first half. There's expected recovery starting in the second half of the year roughly flattish, maybe plus or minus low single digits for the full year, but growth in the second half.

不過，隨著全年工作的發展，預計上半年運輸市場將會下滑。預計今年下半年將開始復甦，復甦速度大致持平，全年增幅可能在正負個位數之間，但下半年將實現成長。

And really, what's exciting is the growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 in the transport markets in the Americas. So we'll see how the year plays out. But yes, there's more of a headwind in the first half of the year from transport.

真正令人興奮的是美洲運輸市場對 2026 年和 2027 年的成長預期。因此，我們看看今年的情況如何。但確實，今年上半年運輸業面臨的阻力更大。

Residential in the first quarter, a little bit more of a headwind from that prebuy, right? We think that will largely impact the first quarter. It may drip into the second quarter or beyond.

第一季的住宅市場，預購帶來的阻力更大一些，對嗎？我們認為這將對第一季產生很大影響。這種影響可能會延續到第二季​​甚至更久。

We'll update as we go throughout the year, but that will really normalize, let's say, by the second half of the year, and we'll see where growth is based on market conditions and then the tailwind we're getting from A2L pricing. So those are the two that would stand out to me.

我們將在全年不斷更新，但這將真正正常化，比如說，到今年下半年，我們將根據市場狀況以及 A2L 帶來的順風看到成長在哪裡定價。因此，這兩個對我來說是突出的。

Maybe the third would be Asia. Again, that new business in China and our team, again, executing very well there, that could be a little more headwind in the first half of the year. Much easier comps as you get into the second half of the year in Asia. So I think those three would probably really be the dynamics I'd call out now.

第三個可能是亞洲。再次，我們在中國的新業務以及我們的團隊在那裡表現得非常好，這可能會給今年上半年帶來一些阻力。隨著亞洲市場進入下半年，競爭將變得更加容易。所以我認為這三個可能就是我現在真正要強調的動力。

And then as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the comment made on some recent investments in channel. I just want to ask if there's anything more you can share there. Dave, I think you mentioned one investment in Europe. But if there's anything you want to call out in terms of a strategy update there, please do. Or if this is same as before and just some opportunistic transactions, let us know that.

然後作為後續問題，我想問一下對最近一些管道投資的評論。我只是想問一下您是否還有更多可以分享的資訊。戴夫，我想你提到了在歐洲的一項投資。但如果您想就策略更新提出任何意見，請隨意提出。或者如果這與以前相同，只是一些機會性交易，請告訴我們。

Yes. Look, we've been buying up our independence in our Commercial HVAC business for a long time. And these are great businesses. They had great leaders. And they're just -- it's opportunistic for us to buy them off.

是的。你看，我們長期以來一直在購買商業暖通空調業務的獨立性。這些都是很棒的企業。他們有偉大的領導者。他們只是──我們收買他們只是投機。

So nothing's changed there with our strategy. There's not a lot of them left, unfortunately, because they're great acquisitions and they become accretive very, very quickly, like almost instantaneously. But that's just -- it's just more of the same. And we just had one this time. It was actually in Belgium over in Europe.

所以我們的策略沒有任何改變。不幸的是，剩下的已經不多了，因為它們都是很棒的收購，而且它們的增值速度非常非常快，幾乎是瞬間。但那隻是——只是更多相同的事情。這次我們只有一個。它實際上是位於歐洲的比利時。

Yes. So think of it as we've been 95% plus direct, and it's these last few percentage points of those independent channels that when they're ready, we're ready to fully bring them into the Trane business. I'll turn it back.

是的。所以可以想像，我們的直接管道已經超過 95%，而當這些獨立管道準備就緒時，我們就會將這些獨立管道完全納入 Trane 業務。我會把它轉回去。

Sure. Thanks, Tommy.

當然。謝謝，湯米。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the conference back over to Zac Nagle for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給扎克·納格爾，請他致最後總結。

Thanks, operator. I'd like to thank everyone for joining today's call. As usual, we'll be available to answer any questions you may have in the coming days and, frankly, in coming weeks. We'll also be on the road in the next couple of months, attending conferences and other things.

謝謝，接線生。我想感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我們將在未來幾天，甚至未來幾週內，隨時解答您的任何問題。我們在接下來的幾個月還會出去參加會議和參加其他活動。

And so we hope to see you in person very soon. So I hope everyone has a great day. Thank you.

我們希望很快就能見到您。我希望大家度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

And this will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。