泰瑞達 (TER) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Tiffany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Teradyne Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安。我叫 Tiffany，今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 Teradyne 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Thank you. Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

謝謝。投資人關係副總裁 Andy Blanchard，您可以開始會議。

Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and CFO, Greg Beecher.

謝謝你，Tiffany。各位早安，歡迎參加我們針對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的說明。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela，以及財務長 Greg Beecher。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2018's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2019.

在開場致詞之後，我們將提供 2018 年第四季與全年表現的細節，並說明我們對 2019 年第一季的展望。

The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

包含第四季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在公司網站的投資人專區提供投影片，或可協助各位跟進本次討論。本次電話會議結束後，亦可透過同一頁面收聽重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，涉及可能導致 Teradyne 實際結果與管理層目前預期有重大差異的風險因素。我們建議各位查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準作出；對於本次電話會議之後發生的任何發展，我們不承擔更新義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available, on the investor page of the website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在公司網站的投資人專區張貼與這些非 GAAP 指標相關的補充資訊，包括在可得情況下與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節。

Also, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in investor conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs, Citi and Susquehanna.

另外，在下一次財報電話會議之前，Teradyne 將參與由 Goldman Sachs、Citi 與 Susquehanna 主辦的投資人會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Greg will then offer more details on our quarterly and full year financial results, along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions. And this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在我們進入其餘議程。首先，Mark 將評論我們近期的結果，以及在進入新年度時的市場狀況。接著 Greg 將就我們的季度與全年財務結果提供更多細節，並給出第一季的財測指引。之後我們將回答各位的提問。本次電話會議預計為 1 小時。

Mark?

Mark？

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll provide a quick summary of our fourth quarter and 2018 results, discuss our outlook for the quarter and year ahead and outline our latest thinking about the long-term growth trends in Industrial Automation. Greg will then take you through the financial results, our updated earnings model and our guidance for the first quarter.

各位早安，感謝各位加入。今天我將快速總結我們第四季與 2018 年的結果，討論我們對未來一季與未來一年的展望，並概述我們對工業自動化長期成長趨勢的最新看法。接著 Greg 將帶各位回顧財務結果、我們更新後的獲利模型，以及第一季的財測指引。

As you saw in last evening's press release, we had a very strong finish to the year, with company sales up about 8% from the fourth quarter of 2017 and non-GAAP EPS up over 35%. These both exceeded the top end of our guidance as Eagle Test analog and LitePoint's wireless sales were particularly strong on the revenue side, and our EPS benefited from both higher sales and record gross margins.

如各位在昨晚的新聞稿中所見，我們在年底交出非常強勁的收官表現，公司營收較 2017 年第四季成長約 8%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）成長超過 35%。這兩項皆超出我們財測指引區間的上緣；營收方面 Eagle Test 的類比與 LitePoint 的無線業務表現尤其強勁，而 EPS 則同時受惠於更高的銷售額與創紀錄的毛利率。

For the full year, despite a significant drop in sales to our largest customer, all other parts of the business showed strong results, bringing our sales to about $2.1 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $2.37 a share.

就全年而言，儘管對我們最大客戶的銷售大幅下滑，業務的其他部分仍展現強勁成果，使我們全年營收約達 21 億美元，非 GAAP EPS 為每股 2.37 美元。

Looking more closely at the results, I'll provide a high-level summary of each segment, and Greg will take you through the detailed numbers. Overall, Semi Test sales in Q4 were up about 8% from the year-ago quarter, and SOC test sales were up nearly 18% on continued demand from analog, image sensor and high-performance SOC.

更仔細來看結果，我將就各事業部提供高層次摘要，Greg 會帶各位檢視詳細數字。整體而言，半導體測試（Semi Test）第四季銷售較去年同期成長約 8%；而系統單晶片（SOC）測試銷售在類比、影像感測器與高效能 SOC 持續需求帶動下，成長近 18%。

In analog test, we had record Eagle Test shipments in both Q4 and for the full year. In addition to the continued expansion of automotive and industrial applications, smarter consumer products are also boosting analog sales. Applications like smart speakers, smarter appliances, home security, combined with the wireless connections they require, all drive increased analog content and increased test demand. Along with every clever complex SOC controller that find its way into these smart products comes a multitude of analog sensors, power managers, motor controllers, actuators, audio/video drivers and enhanced displays.

在類比測試方面，我們的 Eagle Test 出貨量在第四季與全年皆創下紀錄。除了車用與工業應用持續擴張之外，更智慧的消費性產品也在推升類比銷售。例如智慧音箱、更智慧的家電、居家安全等應用，加上其所需的無線連線，皆帶動類比內容增加與測試需求提升。而每一個導入這些智慧產品的精巧複雜 SOC 控制器背後，還伴隨大量的類比感測器、電源管理晶片、馬達控制器、致動器、音訊/視訊驅動器以及強化顯示器等。

In memory test, strong markets and new products resulted in our highest annual memory revenue in history. Our leading position in the flash final test market, combined with the successful product introduction and expansion into the wafer test segment of the memory market, delivered over 46% sales growth for a total of over $270 million in memory test revenue for the year.

在記憶體測試方面，強勁的市場與新產品帶動我們創下歷史最高的年度記憶體營收。我們在快閃記憶體最終測試市場的領先地位，結合成功的產品導入以及向記憶體市場晶圓測試區隔的擴張，使年度銷售成長超過 46%，全年記憶體測試營收合計超過 2.7 億美元。

It's not only big growth that's driving the market. The trend toward even higher speed interfaces in both flash and DRAM continues unabated. Combined, these trends drive more test complexity, more test seconds and a higher rate of memory tester obsolescence. In 2019, we plan to continue to expand our wafer test share position, and we plan to introduce a high-speed DRAM test version of our Magnum platform, giving us full coverage of the memory test market.

推動市場的不僅是高成長。快閃記憶體與 DRAM 介面朝向更高速的趨勢仍持續不減。綜合而言，這些趨勢推升測試複雜度、增加測試秒數，並提高記憶體測試機汰換的速度。在 2019 年，我們計畫持續擴大晶圓測試市占，並計畫推出 Magnum 平台的高速 DRAM 測試版本，讓我們能完整涵蓋記憶體測試市場。

Looking at 2019 for Semi Test. There are conflicting indicators at play, making forecasting difficult. On the one hand, we have not seen any indication of a broad pullback in demand from customers, and the increased complexity trends and new design activity remains very high. On the other hand, we've seen 3 very strong years of test demand, with market growth rates well above our modeled 2% to 4% CAGR. We've also seen a pullback in the front-end CapEx spending that began last year.

就 2019 年的半導體測試（Semi Test）而言，市場存在相互矛盾的指標，使得預測變得困難。一方面，我們尚未看到客戶需求出現全面性縮手的跡象，且複雜度提升的趨勢與新設計活動仍然非常活躍。另一方面，我們已連續 3 年看到非常強勁的測試需求，市場成長率遠高於我們模型假設的 2% 至 4% 年複合成長率（CAGR）。我們也看到前段製程資本支出（CapEx）自去年開始出現回落。

Taking these factors into account, in SOC test, we expect the market to be in the $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion range. And for memory test, we expect the market to be in the $650 million to $750 million range. Both of these are down about 15% to 20% from 2018. While we also expect Teradyne Semi Test revenue to be down, we expect it to be down less than the market drop due to planned share gains in both memory and SOC as well as secular buying shifts balanced in our favor.

綜合考量這些因素，在 SOC 測試方面，我們預期市場規模將落在 23 億至 27 億美元區間。而在記憶體測試方面，我們預期市場規模將落在 6.5 億至 7.5 億美元區間。這兩者相較 2018 年皆約下滑 15% 至 20%。雖然我們也預期 Teradyne 半導體測試營收將下滑，但由於我們計畫在記憶體與 SOC 兩個領域取得市占提升，以及結構性採購移轉對我們有利的因素相互平衡，我們預期下滑幅度將小於市場降幅。

At LitePoint, Q4 sales were up 43% from last year's Q4 and up 18% for the full year. We are now entering the early stages of market growth, driven by both new WiFi standards and 5G. We're seeing early production test system buying for WiFi 6, and we're having early success with our 5G millimeter wave test products in the labs of leading silicon providers as they prepare for future production ramps. We expect continued market growth in 2019, driven mainly by wider deployment of these new connectivity standards, with 5G production test growth becoming more meaningful in 2020 and 2021.

在 LitePoint 方面，第四季銷售較去年第四季成長 43%，全年成長 18%。我們目前正進入由新 WiFi 標準與 5G 所驅動的市場成長早期階段。我們看到 WiFi 6 的量產測試系統已開始出現採購動能；同時，隨著主要矽晶片供應商為未來量產爬坡做準備，我們的 5G 毫米波測試產品在其實驗室中也取得初步成功。我們預期 2019 年市場將持續成長，主要由這些新連線標準更廣泛部署所帶動；而 5G 量產測試的成長在 2020 與 2021 年將變得更具意義。

In our System Test group, sales in the quarter were down from a year -- about 1/3 from last year's fourth quarter due to a very tough compare in the Storage Test business. As you recall, we received customer acceptance and recognized revenue for accumulated shipments of our new system-level test product in that quarter last year. For the full year of 2018, the group grew sales by 12% and operated above model profitability. We expect another strong year from the group in 2019.

在我們的系統測試（System Test）事業群方面，本季銷售較去年同期下滑——約較去年第四季下滑三分之一，主因是儲存測試（Storage Test）業務面臨非常艱難的比較基期。如各位所記得，去年同一季度我們取得客戶驗收，並就我們新系統層級測試產品的累積出貨認列營收。2018 年全年而言，該事業群銷售成長 12%，且營運獲利表現高於模型預期。我們預期該事業群在 2019 年仍將有另一個強勁年度。

Shifting to Industrial Automation. 2018 was an important year for IA at Teradyne. We added MiR to extend low-cost, easy-to-train, safe, collaborative robots to the mobile robot market. Secondly, we added Energid and their team of motion control software experts to extend the bounds of addressable markets for UR's innovative arms. These extensions will begin hitting the market in 2019. Third, our UR+ open API platform continued to expand from about 60 to over 130 certified plug-and-play partner applications. Fourth, we expanded our product reach with major new product introductions at both UR and MiR, substantially expanded our global organizational capabilities and delivered another year of mid- to upper-teens operating profits.

轉向工業自動化。2018 年對 Teradyne 的 IA 而言是重要的一年。我們加入了 MiR，將低成本、易於訓練、安全的協作型機器人延伸至行動機器人市場。其次，我們加入了 Energid 及其運動控制軟體專家團隊，以擴大 UR 創新機械臂可觸及市場的邊界。這些延伸將於 2019 年開始推向市場。第三，我們的 UR+ 開放式 API 平台持續擴張，從約 60 個增加到超過 130 個通過認證、可即插即用的合作夥伴應用。第四，我們在 UR 與 MiR 皆推出多項重大新產品，擴大了產品觸及範圍，並大幅提升全球組織能力，同時再度交出中段至高十幾％的營業利潤率表現。

From a starting point of $42 million in sales in 2015, IA delivered over $0.25 billion of sales in 2018. Although annual revenue of $261 million was up 54% from 2017, it was about $20 million below our target for the year. Continued softness in China and in the automotive sector resulted in Universal Robots' growth rate of 38% for the year and 28% in the fourth quarter compared to the year-ago periods.

IA 自 2015 年 4,200 萬美元的銷售起步，至 2018 年已貢獻超過 2.5 億美元的銷售額。雖然 2.61 億美元的年度營收較 2017 年成長 54%，但仍比我們全年目標低約 2,000 萬美元。中國及汽車產業持續疲弱，使 Universal Robots 全年成長率為 38%，第四季相較去年同期為 28%。

We have not experienced any meaningful competitive headwinds, but rather see economic slowdown and uncertainty weighing on UR growth. On the other hand, MiR had both a fantastic quarter and year, growing close to 200% in the quarter compared to the year-ago quarter and over -- and 150% growth annually on a pro forma basis.

我們未遭遇任何具實質意義的競爭逆風，反而看到經濟放緩與不確定性正在壓抑 UR 的成長。另一方面，MiR 的季度與年度表現都非常出色，該季相較去年同期成長接近 200%，而按備考（pro forma）基礎計算，年度成長超過 150%。

As we did in 2018, this year, we will continue to increase investments in Teradyne's high-growth Industrial Automation businesses to widen and deepen the moats around our leading positions in fixed and mobile collaborative robots. Given the 38% growth rate for UR in 2018 and the likelihood that softness in China and automotive will persist in 2019, we are modeling IA growth in 2019 at about 35% to 40% and bringing our midterm IA growth model down to a 30% to 40% range. This pushes out our $3.50 to $4 a share earnings target out about 1 year, from 2021 to 2022. Greg will cover this in more detail.

如同我們在 2018 年所做的，今年我們將持續增加對 Teradyne 高成長工業自動化業務的投資，以加寬並加深我們在固定式與行動式協作機器人領先地位周圍的護城河。鑑於 UR 在 2018 年的 38% 成長率，以及中國與汽車產業疲弱可能在 2019 年持續，我們對 2019 年 IA 成長的模型假設約為 35% 至 40%，並將中期 IA 成長模型下修至 30% 至 40% 的區間。這使我們每股 3.50 至 4 美元的獲利目標延後約 1 年，從 2021 年延至 2022 年。Greg 會更詳細說明。

On the capital allocation front, we'll continue to buy back shares in 2019 with a planned repurchase of at least $500 million in shares while maintaining the dividend at the current level. We also continue to actively look at a wide range of M&A opportunities primarily centered around Industrial Automation.

在資本配置方面，我們將於 2019 年持續回購股票，計畫至少回購 5 億美元的股份，同時維持股利在目前水準。我們也持續積極評估各式各樣的併購機會，主要聚焦於工業自動化。

Before closing, I'd like to announce that after 18 years of transformative leadership as Teradyne's CFO, Greg Beecher is planning for his retirement, and Teradyne is planning for a smooth transition. Greg has a very flexible time frame and will continue on as CFO as we run a succession process that includes both internal and external candidates.

在結束之前，我想宣布：在擔任 Teradyne 財務長（CFO）並以變革性領導帶領公司 18 年後，Greg Beecher 正在規劃退休，而 Teradyne 也正規劃順利交接。Greg 的時間安排相當彈性，在我們進行接班人選遴選（包含內部與外部候選人）的期間，他將繼續擔任 CFO。

With that, I'll turn things over to Greg.

接下來，我把時間交給 Greg。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Mark，各位早安。

I'll start with the quick highlights of 2018 and then offer some comments on 2019, including our capital allocation plans. I'll also offer some perspective on our strategic position and the market trends at the business segment level and update you on the changes that we've made to our midterm financial model. And then I'll close with the fourth quarter results and first quarter outlook.

我將先快速回顧 2018 年重點，接著對 2019 年提出一些看法，包括我們的資本配置計畫。我也會就各業務部門層級的策略定位與市場趨勢提供一些觀點，並向各位更新我們對中期財務模型所做的調整。最後，我會以第四季結果與第一季展望作結。

On the 2018 financial highlights front, our $2.1 billion of sales and $2.37 in non-GAAP EPS was quite good. We grew EPS $0.03 over 2017 despite slightly lower sales and increased strategic investments in Industrial Automation where we grew OpEx over $50 million. This included folding in 2 acquisitions and further scaling our sales, support and development resources across the automation businesses. On the other side of the EPS ledger, we picked up 1 point of gross margin, shaved our tax rate 2 points and reduced our diluted shares by 5%. So the net is a slight gain in EPS and a much stronger Industrial Automation strategic position.

就 2018 年財務重點而言，我們 21 億美元的銷售額與非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）2.37 美元表現相當不錯。儘管銷售略低，且在工業自動化領域增加策略性投資（我們將營業費用 OpEx 增加超過 5,000 萬美元），我們的 EPS 仍較 2017 年增加 0.03 美元。其中包括納入 2 項收購，並進一步擴大自動化業務的銷售、支援與研發資源規模。在 EPS 的另一端，我們的毛利率提升 1 個百分點，稅率下降 2 個百分點，且稀釋後股數減少 5%。因此，整體結果是 EPS 小幅提升，而工業自動化的策略地位則顯著強化。

In 2018, we also achieved growth in all of our businesses except SOC test, which experienced an off year due to lower mobility buying by a large customer. As expected, the highest annual growth was in our Industrial Automation segment, which includes Universal Robots, MiR and Energid, where sales grew 54% to reach $261 million. Universal Robots saw annual growth of 38%, reaching $234 million. As Mark noted, this was below earlier expectations, with strong headwinds in China and some slowdown in Tier 1 automotive buying. MiR, the industry leader in autonomous mobile robots, grew full year sales over 150% to $31 million, up from $12 million in 2017. We recorded $24 million of those sales in our 2018 results as the MiR acquisition closed partway through 2018.

2018 年，我們除 SOC 測試外的所有業務皆實現成長；SOC 測試因一位大型客戶的行動裝置採購減少而出現較弱的一年。如預期，我們年度成長最高的是工業自動化部門（包含 Universal Robots、MiR 與 Energid），銷售成長 54% 至 2.61 億美元。Universal Robots 全年成長 38%，達到 2.34 億美元。如 Mark 所提，這低於先前預期，主要因中國的強勁逆風以及第一級（Tier 1）汽車客戶採購放緩。自主移動機器人產業領導者 MiR 全年銷售成長超過 150% 至 3,100 萬美元，高於 2017 年的 1,200 萬美元。由於 MiR 收購案在 2018 年中途完成，我們在 2018 年財報中認列其中 2,400 萬美元的銷售。

Memory test was a standout performer within Semi Test, with sales growth of 46% to $273 million for the year in an overall memory test market which exceeded about $950 million. Gross margin for the full year was 58%, a new company record. Favorable mix, along with material cost reductions at UR, drove this result. For example, our Industrial Automation gross margins expanded from 56% in 2017 to 59% in 2018. Teradyne's supply line group continues to play a key role in both improving IA gross margins and our ability to scale up these fast-growing businesses.

記憶體測試是半導體測試（Semi Test）中的亮點，全年銷售成長 46% 至 2.73 億美元；而整體記憶體測試市場規模超過約 9.5 億美元。全年毛利率為 58%，創公司新紀錄。有利的產品組合，加上 UR 的材料成本降低，帶動了此一成果。例如，我們工業自動化的毛利率由 2017 年的 56% 擴大至 2018 年的 59%。Teradyne 的供應鏈團隊持續在提升 IA 毛利率，以及支援這些快速成長業務擴張能力方面扮演關鍵角色。

At the company level, we achieved a very healthy non-GAAP operating profit rate of 25% even with a significant expansion of our Industrial Automation portfolio and headcount. 2018 IA hiring, which reached nearly 250 people, helped us extend our cobot product lead, develop and market more applications, cover larger accounts, generate more qualified leads and better support our channel partners.

在公司層級，即便我們的工業自動化產品組合與人力規模大幅擴張，仍達成非常健康的非 GAAP 營業利潤率 25%。2018 年 IA 招募人數接近 250 人，協助我們延伸協作機器人（cobot）產品領先優勢、開發並行銷更多應用、覆蓋更大型客戶、產生更多合格商機，並更好地支援通路合作夥伴。

We also increased our stock buyback beyond our $750 million target to $823 million in 2018, buying back 22 million shares. Since the start of 2015, we've repurchased 50 million shares at an average price of $29.44. So apart from our healthy financial performance, we strengthened the company principally by expanding our served markets, adding new products and scaling our Industrial Automation businesses. I'll highlight these as I go through the segments.

我們在 2018 年也將股票回購金額提高至超過原先 7.5 億美元目標的 8.23 億美元，回購 2,200 萬股。自 2015 年初以來，我們已以平均每股 29.44 美元的價格回購 5,000 萬股。因此，除了穩健的財務表現之外，我們也主要透過擴大服務市場、增加新產品，以及擴張工業自動化業務規模來強化公司。我在逐一說明各部門時會強調這些重點。

First, in Semi Test. The expansion in memory wafer-level test delivered nearly $40 million of new business in 2018. In SOC test, we're seeing high demand for 5G millimeter wave test capability from leading customers for development and early preproduction volumes. Shipping this year, we expect these 5G engineering testers will position us quite nicely for the subsequent volume production starting in late 2020 and 2021.

首先，在半導體測試（Semi Test）方面。記憶體晶圓級測試的擴張在 2018 年帶來近 4,000 萬美元的新業務。在 SOC 測試方面，我們看到領先客戶對 5G 毫米波測試能力的需求強勁，主要用於研發與早期試產量。這些 5G 工程測試機將於今年出貨，我們預期它們將使我們在後續自 2020 年底與 2021 年開始的量產階段取得相當有利的位置。

As Mark provided our ATE market size estimates for 2019, I'll just simply add that in the midterm, we see numerous positive trends for test with 5G millimeter wave, autonomous vehicles, AI devices, augmented reality, big data. While we'll ride these positive inflections, we expect the market will remain somewhat volatile as manufacturers affect annual tester buying. These include chip complexity, unit growth, yields, customer-specific test strategies, utilization levels and so on. I'll remind you that this volatility is not new, and we've built our operating model to flex up and down with market demand swings and still deliver solid financial performance.

由於 Mark 已提供我們 2019 年 ATE 市場規模的估計，我就簡單補充：在中期來看，我們看到多項正向趨勢，測試需求將受惠於 5G 毫米波、自動駕駛車、AI 裝置、擴增實境與大數據等。在我們乘勢這些正向拐點之際，我們預期市場仍將維持一定程度的波動，因為製造商會影響年度測試機的採購。影響因素包括晶片複雜度、出貨量成長、良率、客戶特定的測試策略、稼動率水準等等。我提醒各位，這種波動並非新鮮事，我們已建立可隨市場需求起伏而上調或下調的營運模式，並仍能交出穩健的財務表現。

The other quick reminder in Semi Test is that annual buying shifts at individual customers can favor us or our principal competitor. In 2018, these shifts significantly favored our primary competitor. So for the first year, after 6 consecutive years, we didn't gain share this year. However, our long-term plan remains to get back on that share gain trend line.

在半導體測試（Semi Test）方面，另一個快速提醒是：個別客戶的年度採購移轉，可能會有利於我們或我們的主要競爭對手。在 2018 年，這些移轉明顯有利於我們的主要競爭對手。因此，在連續 6 年市占提升之後，我們今年首次未能提升市占。不過，我們的長期計畫仍是回到市占提升的趨勢線上。

In Industrial Automation, MiR had the expected 2018 breakout year with stand-alone sales of $31 million as more industrial companies take advantage of our next-generation automation to move both piece parts and heavy pallets. We're also seeing some early hospital applications, moving medicine and supplies from stock rooms to nursing stations throughout the hospital. This is an entirely new vertical with a potential to grow nicely given the increasing cost pressures on hospitals.

在工業自動化方面，MiR 在 2018 年如預期迎來突破性的一年，獨立銷售額達 3,100 萬美元，因為更多工業公司利用我們的次世代自動化方案來搬運零件與重型棧板。我們也看到一些早期的醫院應用，將藥品與物資從庫房運送到醫院各處的護理站。這是一個全新的垂直領域，鑑於醫院面臨日益增加的成本壓力，具備良好的成長潛力。

On the new product front, the MiR500 was added to the product lineup and, in the fourth quarter, was autonomously moving pallets at multiple customers with greater safety and lower cost than the traditional forklift transport method. We expect that MiR will deliver upwards of 100% growth in 2019.

在新產品方面，MiR500 已加入產品線，並在第四季於多家客戶端以自主方式搬運棧板，相較於傳統堆高機運輸方式，具備更高安全性與更低成本。我們預期 MiR 在 2019 年將實現超過 100% 的成長。

Through 2018, Universal Robots grew at 56% cumulative rate from 2015 full year sales of $61 million. But for 2018 alone, growth slowed. We saw a sharp drop-off in China during the second half, along with some softness in Europe principally tied to the automotive sector. On the competitive front, we extended our cobot lead with the e-Series, which enables faster training, higher safety, more compute power and a sense of touch. We also broadened our application reach, now fielding over 130 certified third-party plug-and-play accessories in our UR+ program. We'll continue to expand this number as we strengthen the technical and commercial support for the hundreds of independent developers in the program around the world.

截至 2018 年，Universal Robots 自 2015 年全年銷售額 6,100 萬美元起算，以 56% 的累計成長率成長。但就 2018 年單年而言，成長放緩。我們看到中國在下半年急遽下滑，同時歐洲也出現一些疲弱，主要與汽車產業相關。在競爭面上，我們透過 e-Series 擴大了協作機器人（cobot）的領先優勢，該系列可提供更快的訓練、更高的安全性、更強的運算能力以及觸覺感知。我們也擴大了應用觸及範圍，在 UR+ 計畫中目前已部署超過 130 款經認證的第三方即插即用配件。隨著我們強化對全球計畫中數百位獨立開發者的技術與商務支援，我們將持續擴增此數量。

We're launching a number of new initiatives in 2019 to accelerate our lead generation and expand our direct customer touch, which should yield in the second half of the year. We also expect multiple waves of adoption ahead. With larger companies gravitating to cobots, we also expect new enabling technologies such as low-cost 3D vision and path planning to expand the cobot served market into more complex pick-and-place tasks. New applications using AI for training and fast adaptability and manipulating objects should also expand the range of cobot applications. In addition, we expect steady forces such as labor shortages, higher quality requirements, cost pressures, including inflation effects, will continue to stimulate wider UR adoption.

我們在 2019 年將推出多項新措施，以加速潛在客戶開發並擴大與直接客戶的接觸，預期將在下半年見到成效。我們也預期未來將出現多波採用潮。隨著大型企業逐步轉向協作機器人，我們也預期低成本 3D 視覺與路徑規劃等新賦能技術，將把協作機器人的可服務市場擴展到更複雜的取放（pick-and-place）任務。此外，運用 AI 進行訓練、快速適應與物件操控的新應用，也將擴大協作機器人的應用範圍。同時，我們預期勞動力短缺、更高的品質要求、成本壓力（包括通膨影響）等穩定力量，將持續刺激 UR 更廣泛的採用。

Shifting now to System Test, which includes our Defense & Aero, Production Board Test and Storage Test businesses. Sales grew 12% to $216 million over the '17 levels, and the segment operated above model profitability. We expect strong performance again in 2019 as Defense & Aero continue to benefit from new program buying and the ongoing upgrade of legacy defense systems. In Production Board Test, we pioneered high-throughput, in-line panel testing, and that's now becoming more mainstream. In Storage Test, both our semiconductor and our 3.5-inch hard disk drive customer are forecasting healthy 2019 demand.

接著談系統測試（System Test），包含我們的國防與航太（Defense & Aero）、生產板測試（Production Board Test）與儲存測試（Storage Test）業務。銷售額較 2017 年水準成長 12% 至 2.16 億美元，且該事業群的獲利表現高於模型水準。我們預期 2019 年仍將有強勁表現，因為國防與航太將持續受惠於新專案採購，以及既有國防系統的持續升級。在生產板測試方面，我們率先推出高吞吐量的線上（in-line）面板測試，而這正逐步成為主流。在儲存測試方面，我們的半導體客戶與 3.5 吋硬碟機客戶皆預測 2019 年需求健康。

Turning now to Wireless Test demand at LitePoint. The group grew sales 18% and operated above model profitability in 2018. Over the midterm, we expect continued healthy growth in Wireless Test, with 5G cellular providing the biggest added lift.

接著談 LitePoint 的無線測試（Wireless Test）需求。該團隊 2018 年銷售額成長 18%，且營運獲利高於模型水準。在中期來看，我們預期無線測試將持續健康成長，其中 5G 行動通訊將帶來最大的額外推升。

Now to the fourth quarter wrap up. At the company level, our sales were $520 million, the non-GAAP operating profit rate was 26%, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.63. We had no 10% customer in the fourth quarter and one for the full year. Non-GAAP gross margins were 60% in the quarter, with favorable product mix. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were down $2 million to $175 million compared to the third quarter due to lower variable compensation accruals and a onetime $3 million credit, partially offset by IA hiring, principally from bringing on more than 20 very talented people from Rethink Robotics.

接著總結第四季。以公司整體而言，我們的銷售額為 5.20 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利益率為 26%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.63 美元。第四季沒有任何單一客戶占比達 10%，全年則有一位客戶達到。本季非 GAAP 毛利率為 60%，受惠於有利的產品組合。你們會看到，我們的非 GAAP 營業費用較第三季下降 200 萬美元至 1.75 億美元，原因是變動薪酬提列較低以及一次性 300 萬美元的貸項；部分被工業自動化（IA）招募所抵銷，主要來自自 Rethink Robotics 延攬超過 20 位非常優秀的人才。

The tax rate was 16% for the year. On a GAAP basis, we also benefited from more favorable tax treatment for our repatriated cash than we had expected. We bought back 7.8 million shares for $261 million at an average price of $33.51 in the quarter. And we end the year with cash and marketable security balances of $1.2 billion. We increased the IA earnout accrual balance to $71 million, an increase in the quarter of $10 million, based principally on strong MiR performance.

全年稅率為 16%。在 GAAP 基礎下，我們也因匯回現金獲得比預期更有利的稅務處理而受惠。本季我們以平均每股 33.51 美元的價格回購 780 萬股，金額 2.61 億美元。年底我們的現金與有價證券餘額為 12 億美元。我們將 IA 的或有對價（earnout）應計餘額提高至 7,100 萬美元，本季增加 1,000 萬美元，主要基於 MiR 的強勁表現。

Shifting now to our midterm earnings model. Factoring in both recent history and our latest outlook, we've updated the earnings target of $3.50 to $4 of non-GAAP EPS to slip out a year into 2022 rather than 2021. We've provided an updated slide in our investor deck, but at the high level, we've pulled back on UR's growth rate and have set the IA midterm growth rate to 30% to 40% going out through 2022. We've also reflected an 8% lower share count due to a lower buyback price in 2018, and we're also adding another year of buybacks by going out a year. So keep in mind that some of the numbers change as we're adding a year, but the takeaway should be that we're confident that our test businesses have secular growth and strong profitability and our high-growth IA businesses should be approaching $1 billion by 2022 with 20% or better PEBIT.

接著談我們的中期獲利模型。綜合近期歷史與最新展望，我們已將非 GAAP EPS 目標 3.50 至 4 美元的達成時間往後延一年，改為 2022 年而非 2021 年。我們已在投資人簡報中提供更新的投影片；就高層次而言，我們下修了 UR 的成長率，並將 IA 的中期成長率設定為 30% 至 40%，延伸至 2022 年。我們也反映了因 2018 年較低的回購價格而使股數減少 8%，並且因為時間軸延後一年，也多納入一年的回購。因此請記住，因為我們多加了一年，一些數字會有所變動；但重點是，我們有信心測試業務具備結構性成長與強勁獲利能力，而高成長的 IA 業務到 2022 年應可接近 10 億美元規模，且 PEBIT 可達 20% 或更高。

Shifting now to capital allocation. We're targeting to buy back $500 million of our stock in 2019. As in the past, there's a programmatic and an opportunistic component to the plan. At the same time, we have a very active IA M&A funnel, which is why we maintain dry powder on our balance sheet.

接著談資本配置。我們目標在 2019 年回購 5 億美元的自家股票。如同過去，該計畫包含例行性（programmatic）與機會性（opportunistic）兩個部分。同時，我們在 IA 的併購（M&A）管道非常活躍，這也是我們在資產負債表上維持充足可用資金（dry powder）的原因。

Let me quickly talk about OpEx as that's an area that we are strategically growing in our Industrial Automation businesses to expand our competitive moats to remain the leader and capture the highest amount of the available profit pool. We plan to grow IA OpEx from $33 million exiting the fourth quarter to about $50 million a quarter in the second half of 2019. Similar to last year, we plan to operate the IA business around 15% PEBIT for the year. In test, we plan to keep OpEx approximately flat in 2019, apart from normal changes in variable compensation.

我再快速談一下營業費用（OpEx），因為這是我們在工業自動化業務中策略性加碼的領域，用以擴大競爭護城河、維持領導地位，並在可得的利潤池中取得最大份額。我們計畫將 IA 的 OpEx 從第四季末的每季 3,300 萬美元，提高到 2019 年下半年每季約 5,000 萬美元。與去年類似，我們計畫全年讓 IA 業務以約 15% 的 PEBIT 營運。在測試業務方面，我們計畫 2019 年將 OpEx 大致維持持平，僅排除變動薪酬的正常變動。

Shifting to our outlook for the first quarter. Sales are expected to be between $460 million and $490 million. The non-GAAP EPS range is $0.39 to $0.47 on 177 million diluted shares. The first quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and the noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. First quarter gross margins are estimated at 58%, down 2 points from the fourth quarter due to product mix. The first quarter OpEx, running at 38% to 40% of first quarter sales, is up about $10 million from the fourth quarter due to further IA distribution and product development investments, principally at Universal Robots and some onetime Semi Test NRE expenses. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is about 19%. Our tax rate for 2019 is estimated at about 16%.

接著談我們對第一季的展望。預期銷售額將介於4.60億至4.90億美元之間。以1.77億股稀釋後股數計算，非GAAP每股盈餘（EPS）區間為0.39至0.47美元。第一季指引不包含併購取得無形資產的攤銷，以及可轉換債務的非現金推算利息。第一季毛利率估計為58%，因產品組合影響，較第四季下降2個百分點。第一季營業費用（OpEx）約為第一季銷售額的38%至40%，較第四季增加約1,000萬美元，主因為進一步的IA通路/配銷與產品開發投資，主要在Universal Robots，另有部分一次性的半導體測試（Semi Test）NRE費用。以第一季指引中點計算，非GAAP營業利益率約為19%。我們對2019年的稅率估計約為16%。

Looking a bit closer at 2019. We expect gross margins to be in the range of 57% to 58%. Non-GAAP interest income, excluding the noncash imputed interest from the convert, is expected to be about $3 million a quarter, factoring in interest income on our cash balances, partially offset by the 1.25% annual coupon on the convertible debt. And we've earmarked $90 million to $110 million for CapEx.

再更仔細看一下2019年。我們預期毛利率將落在57%至58%的區間。非GAAP利息收入（不含可轉債帶來的非現金推算利息）預期每季約為300萬美元，已納入我們現金餘額的利息收入，並由可轉換債務1.25%的年息票部分抵銷。此外，我們已預留9,000萬至1.10億美元作為資本支出（CapEx）。

So we start 2019 with a portfolio of healthy test businesses and a much stronger Industrial Automation portfolio. We'll remain disciplined in capital allocation and in our fixed costs in our mature test businesses while also aggressively scaling Universal Robots and MiR, given the long-term high growth rates. Remember that we long ago led the automation of the testing of integrated circuits. Now we're helping to relieve humans of the most tedious and repetitive task with safe and easy-to-train cobots. From where we sit, the future of Teradyne looks quite bright.

因此，我們以一組健全的測試業務組合，以及更強大的工業自動化（Industrial Automation）產品組合展開2019年。在成熟的測試業務上，我們將在資本配置與固定成本方面維持紀律；同時，鑑於長期的高成長率，我們也會積極擴大Universal Robots與MiR的規模。請記得，我們很早以前就引領了積體電路測試的自動化。如今，我們正透過安全且易於訓練的協作機器人（cobots），協助人類從最繁瑣、重複的工作中解放出來。就我們所見，Teradyne的未來相當光明。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Andy.

接下來，我把電話交回給Andy。

Thanks, Greg. Tiffany, now we'd like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Greg。Tiffany，現在我們想開始回答一些問題。（接線員指示）

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自美國銀行美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的Vivek Arya。

Congratulations and best wishes to Greg on his retirement. For my first question, IA has been a very strong growth driver for you, but over the last year, we have seen some downshifting of growth assumption. I understand the China aspect, but I believe you mentioned China is only about 15% of sales, if I recall. So what are the trends outside of China that are driving the demand? So that's the near-term question.

恭喜Greg退休，也祝福他一切順利。我的第一個問題是，IA一直是你們非常強勁的成長驅動力，但在過去一年，我們看到成長假設有些下修。我理解中國因素，但如果我沒記錯，你們提到中國大約只占銷售額的15%。那麼，中國以外有哪些趨勢正在帶動需求？這是短期的問題。

And longer term, if IA growth is in the mid-30s right now, how do you plan to organically maintain this exact growth rate over the next 3 years?

而從長期來看，如果IA目前的成長在35%左右，未來3年你們打算如何透過內生成長（organic）維持這個精確的成長率？

Okay, I'll start with that. The other place that we mentioned that there's some near-term softness is in auto. The auto sector in Tier 1 have hit some headwinds, and that's principally in Europe. But what we're doing and what we can control is we see, for example, enabling technologies that can open up new markets that haven't been served very well. And the best example I can quickly give you is with the Energid path planning and low-cost vision modules. Combine that with our arm, you can do more sophisticated pick-and-place applications all the way into a bin, emptying a bin out and then taking some part and moving it to the next step in the production line. There are many tedious tasks in manufacturing where people do that, and it's not really suited for a person. It's mind-numbing, and it's more of a robotic-type task. So we expect on that front to have a bin-picking solution towards the end of this year through beta, so that I think that will probably start to ramp in 2020. So that's not in '19, that's in 2020. But that's illustrative of how we can, with enabling technology, open up another market.

好的，我先回答。我們提到另一個短期偏弱的地方是在汽車領域。Tier 1汽車產業遇到一些逆風，主要在歐洲。但我們正在做、且我們能掌控的是：我們看到一些賦能技術（enabling technologies）可以開啟過去服務不佳的新市場。我能很快舉的最佳例子是Energid的路徑規劃，以及低成本視覺模組。把這些與我們的機械臂結合，你就能做更複雜的取放（pick-and-place）應用，甚至可以伸進料箱（bin）裡進行拣取、把料箱清空，然後把零件移到產線的下一個步驟。製造業有許多繁瑣工作是人們在做，但其實並不適合由人來做。那會讓人精神麻木，更像是機器人類型的任務。因此，我們預期在今年底左右透過beta推出一套料箱拣取（bin-picking）解決方案，我認為它可能會在2020年開始放量。所以這不會反映在2019年，而是在2020年。但這說明了我們如何透過賦能技術開拓另一個市場。

Another quick example I'll give you is MiR, our mobile robot, which is growing at 100%. And that takes a little bit of -- I mean, it obviously helps us with the IA growth rate considerably, but MiR has opportunities to get into hospitals. And there's many hospitals in certain countries, in Asian countries, that may be built, and they're going to perhaps heavily automate those hospitals. So we see there might be other verticals that these next-generation technologies can work quite nicely in because they're so easy to use. You don't need to be an engineer. So there's many new verticals. We have a lot of developers opening up other applications that we might not have thought about. So we're also shifting a bit more resources to North America. So if China's soft, there might be a little bit more activity elsewhere that's making up for some of the softness. So we see some opportunities in North America in the near term. And North America grew very nicely last year, so we're going to continue to put the foot to the metal there.

我再快速舉一個例子：MiR，我們的移動機器人，成長達到100%。這需要一點——我的意思是，它顯然大幅幫助我們的IA成長率，但MiR也有機會進入醫院。在某些國家、一些亞洲國家，可能會興建許多醫院，而他們或許會高度自動化這些醫院。因此我們看到，這些下一代技術可能在其他垂直領域也能非常契合，因為它們非常容易使用。你不需要是工程師。所以有許多新的垂直領域。我們有很多開發者在開拓其他應用，這些可能是我們原本沒想到的。因此我們也正把更多資源轉向北美。所以如果中國偏弱，其他地區可能會有更多活動來彌補部分疲弱。因此短期內我們在北美看到一些機會。而北美去年成長非常不錯，所以我們會持續全力加速推進。

All right. And for my follow-up, I think you mentioned for this year, the addressable market could be down 15%, 20%, I believe is the number and sort of in line with the front end. But is that the experience from prior cycles? Because when I look at last year, the Semi Test business was below what we saw on the front-end WFE side. So what is the visibility in the addressable opportunity this year?

好的。我的追問是，我想你提到今年可服務市場（addressable market）可能下滑15%、20%，我相信這個數字大致與前段（front end）一致。但這符合以往景氣循環的經驗嗎？因為我看去年，半導體測試（Semi Test）業務低於我們在前段WFE那邊看到的表現。所以今年在可觸及機會（addressable opportunity）方面的能見度如何？

Yes. This is for, again, Semi Test. So the visibility is not great. Again, from a bottoms-up point of view, we have customers who talk about their plans, but they change -- as they did last year on the upside, they can change dramatically through the year. But it's not really modeling prior downturns as much as looking at the bottoms-up activity levels and design and test time trends and what customers are telling us that kind of give us that range.

是的。這同樣是針對半導體測試（Semi Test）。所以能見度並不高。同樣地，從自下而上（bottoms-up）的角度，我們有客戶會談他們的計畫，但他們會改變——就像去年在上行時一樣，他們可能在一年中大幅調整。但我們並不是那麼以過去的下行來建模，而是看自下而上的活動水準、設計與測試時間的趨勢，以及客戶告訴我們的情況，來給出那個區間。

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2. Greg, the SOC TAM assumption that you gave, what does that assume for your largest customer? How much of a snapback are you assuming in that tail? Are you assuming that there's not much snapback this year, and it's more of a next year thing?

我有兩個問題。Greg，你給的SOC TAM假設，對你們最大客戶的假設是什麼？你們假設那一端會反彈多少（snapback）？你們是假設今年反彈不大、更多是明年的事情嗎？

Yes. So our largest customer -- this is Mark. Our largest customer in 2017 was roughly in the low 20s as a percentage of our overall revenue. 2018 largest customer is going to be in the low teens, and we expect this year to be the same. So we think there's not a big snapback. It's about the same year-over-year for that customer.

是的。我們的最大客戶——我是Mark。我們2017年的最大客戶約占我們總營收的20%出頭。2018年的最大客戶將落在10%出頭，而我們預期今年也會是相同水準。所以我們認為不會有很大的反彈。對該客戶而言，年對年大致相同。

Got it, great. And then, Greg, I guess just a question on IA OpEx. So with the slower longer-term growth rate, how do you think about how to gear down OpEx? Seems like there's not that much of a change this year, but sort of what would it take for you to materially slow down IA OpEx as the growth over the longer term continues to slow?

了解，很好。接著，Greg，我想問一個關於 IA 營業費用（OpEx） 的問題。在長期成長率放緩的情況下，你們如何思考如何降低 OpEx 的配置/投入？看起來今年變化不大，但隨著長期成長持續放慢，要達到你們在 IA OpEx 上「實質」放緩，需要什麼條件？

Well, that's a good question, Tim. The way we're running Industrial Automation, particularly Universal Robots, less so MiR because MiR has such high growth, at least for the next couple of years, is we're starting with a plan, and we're putting a target of 15% operating profit, with the understanding, if the sales grow lower than, let's say, 28% or some number like that, that they have to meter the OpEx and not bring it all onboard. So we're going to adjust OpEx. Now as you know, OpEx can get in front of the sales. So if we get in front of the sales too much in the early half, we're going to have to hold back much more aggressively in the second half. So this will probably be the first year where there'll be a bit more pressure to prioritize if we find that we're not, at UR, hitting 28%. And I think we're going to hit 28% or that neighborhood. So we're metering it is the answer in short.

Tim，這是個好問題。我們在營運工業自動化（Industrial Automation）時，特別是 Universal Robots（UR）——MiR 則相對沒那麼多，因為 MiR 至少在未來幾年仍有很高的成長——我們是先從一個計畫開始，並設定 15% 的營業利益目標；同時也理解，如果銷售成長低於（比方說）28% 或類似的數字，他們就必須控管 OpEx 的投入節奏，而不是把所有費用一次性全部上線。所以我們會調整 OpEx。如你所知，OpEx 可能會跑在銷售前面。因此如果上半年 OpEx 超前銷售太多，我們下半年就必須更積極地踩煞車。所以這可能會是第一年：如果我們發現 UR 沒有達到 28%，就會有更大的壓力去做優先順序的取捨。而我認為我們會達到 28% 或接近那個水準。所以簡而言之，答案就是：我們會控制投入節奏。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

Mark, just relative to your prepared comments that you think your Semi Test business will do better than the overall market. To Tim's point, if you're not expecting a large snapback from the big customer, I guess what are the puts and takes? How much better than the overall market do you think you can do? And I guess, I understand your comments about market share gains, but you also made a comment about secular buying patterns favoring you. Maybe you can elaborate on that as well as you answer the question.

Mark，針對你在事先準備的發言中提到，你們的半導體測試（Semi Test）業務會優於整體市場。呼應 Tim 的觀點，如果你們不預期來自那位大客戶會有明顯回彈，那我想問：其中的利多與利空（puts and takes）是什麼？你們認為可以比整體市場好多少？另外，我理解你提到市占率提升，但你也提到「長期/結構性（secular）的採購模式」對你們有利。能否在回答問題時也一併多談談這點？

Yes. So there's a couple of things there. So last year, there were several events, I would say, that benefited, as Greg mentioned, our competitor that didn't benefit us that we think will revert more to the mean in this year. So although our largest customer is sort of flat year-over-year -- for example, in 2018, there were some of our competitor's customers that made a shift in foundries, and that required a onetime tooling bump at the new foundry for test equipment for that supplier. So that's a onetime effect that will revert back to the norm this year, as an example. There's -- the other example is the RF and 5G products that are starting to build momentum tend to favor us. That's a sector where we have high share, quite a bit above the norm. And as that grows in proportion to the overall market, we will benefit disproportionately. So that's 2 examples.

是的。這裡面有幾個因素。去年我會說發生了幾件事，如 Greg 提到的，對我們的競爭對手有利、但對我們沒有幫助；我們認為今年會更回歸常態。所以即便我們最大的客戶年對年大致持平——例如在 2018 年，我們競爭對手的一些客戶把代工廠（foundries）做了轉移，這使得該供應商在新代工廠需要一次性的治具/產線導入（tooling）增加，進而帶動測試設備的一次性需求跳升。這是一個一次性效應，今年會回到正常水準，這是其中一個例子。另一個例子是：正在開始累積動能的 RF 與 5G 產品，往往更有利於我們。在這個領域我們的市占率很高，明顯高於一般水準。當這一塊在整體市場中的占比提升時，我們會以更高的幅度受益。以上是兩個例子。

Well, Mark, if you add it all up, if the market's overall down 15% to 20%, how much better do you think you can do?

Mark，如果把這些都加總起來，假設整體市場下滑 15% 到 20%，你覺得你們能好多少？

It's probably a range, but we're not going to be immune to being down probably. But we could be in, let's say, somewhere in the 5 to low teens down.

這可能會是一個區間，但我們大概也不可能完全不受下滑影響。不過我們可能會落在，例如下滑 5% 到低十位數百分比的範圍。

Perfect. And then maybe as my follow-up, just on the IA resetting of the growth rate in the midterm. I'm just kind of curious, to what extent is that just a reflection of the macro uncertainty today versus other factors? Is it just that as you went through '18, the prior growth rate just didn't seem doable? Or is this really a reaction to the macro? And if it's not just a reaction to the macro, what are the puts and takes that are kind of having you bring down that growth rate a little bit?

很好。接著追問一下，關於 IA 在中期把成長率重新設定這件事。我有點好奇：這在多大程度上只是反映當前的總體不確定性（macro uncertainty），相對於其他因素？是否只是你們在走過 2018 年後，覺得先前的成長率看起來不太可行？還是這其實主要是對宏觀環境的反應？如果不只是對宏觀的反應，那有哪些利多與利空因素讓你們把成長率稍微下修？

John, I would say the single biggest thing is sort of the here and now, meaning the fourth quarter growth rate over fourth quarter of a quarter ago was -- at UR was 28%. Now the prior quarter was 46%, quarter before that was 45%, and then for the year, it was 38%. So we just want to be a bit more cautious, and we don't want to be on the side of defending a high growth rate. We'd rather be on the side of a very credible growth rate with possibly upside. That's how we thought about it. We don't want to be resetting the model every year. We'd like to reset it now. And this model can stand the test of time, we hope.

John，我會說最主要的一件事是「當下」的狀況；也就是說，第四季相較於前一年同季的成長率——以 UR 來看——是 28%。而前一季是 46%，再前一季是 45%，全年則是 38%。所以我們只是想更保守一些，不想站在必須捍衛一個很高成長率的立場。我們寧可站在一個非常可信、且可能還有上行空間的成長率上。我們是這樣思考的。我們不希望每年都在重設模型。我們希望現在就把它重設好。也希望這個模型能經得起時間考驗。

But Greg, with your outlook, from a bottoms-up perspective, the opportunity you see today longer term, no different than 6 months ago?

但 Greg，從自下而上（bottoms-up）的角度來看，你今天看到的長期機會，跟 6 個月前相比沒有不同嗎？

Absolutely. The opportunity is incredibly large. It -- we have no doubt it'll be a $1 billion business. It's a question of what year. And I think we've talked about in the past, large companies tend to be slow in adopting, but at some point, they're going to be forced to adapt to be competitive. If there's more jobs in higher-cost regions, the way they can do that with is automation. If there's inflation, you're going to need automation. So there's so many factors. There's demographics, worker shortages. So all the ingredients are there. It's just the adoption rate. What is the adoption rate? There's always waves of adoption. And as we bring new enabling technology that opens up other solutions, I think you're going to see other people jump onboard.

完全沒有不同。這個機會非常巨大。我們毫不懷疑它會成為一個 10 億美元的業務。問題只是在哪一年達成。而且我想我們過去也談過，大型公司在採用上往往比較慢，但在某個時間點，他們會被迫為了競爭力而調整。如果高成本地區有更多工作機會，他們能做到的方式就是自動化。如果有通膨，你就需要自動化。所以因素非常多。還有人口結構、勞工短缺。所以所有的要素都具備了。差別只在採用速度。採用速度會是多少？採用總是會一波一波地來。而當我們帶來新的賦能技術、開啟其他解決方案時，我認為你會看到更多人加入。

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Before I ask my question, I wish Greg the best, and hopefully, he changes his mind and stays onboard.

在我提問之前，我祝 Greg 一切順利，也希望他能改變心意、繼續留下來。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，Mehdi。

Over the past 5, 6 years, your calendar year revenues were more weighted towards the first half. Second half revenues will be down low teen compared to the first half. Last year was an anomaly. And in that context, my first question is, how do you see the revenue progression throughout the year? Would '19 be similar to the trends prior '18? Or would it have its own unique trend?

過去 5、6 年，你們的曆年營收比較偏向上半年。下半年營收相較上半年會下滑到低十位數百分比。去年是個例外。在這樣的背景下，我的第一個問題是：你們如何看待今年各季度/全年營收的走勢？2019 年會更像 2018 年之前的趨勢嗎？還是會有它自己獨特的走勢？

I think that part of the issue with '18 was we didn't get the big second quarter bump we typically got from the mobility tooling because of the large customer effect. And as Industrial Automation becomes a larger portion of our business, they tend to be bumping up in the fourth quarter. So over time, we're going to see, I think, more of a shift toward the second half of the year because of IA. And one other point I made, even in this last most recent quarter, LitePoint had a very strong second and -- half of the year. So IA, less lumpiness in mobility, I think will kind of start to balance out the full year more with a little bit of a trend toward a fourth quarter bump.

我認為 2018 年部分問題在於：因為那位大客戶的影響，我們沒有拿到通常會來自行動裝置治具（mobility tooling）的第二季大幅拉升。而隨著工業自動化在我們業務中的占比變大，它們的出貨/營收往往會在第四季拉升。所以隨著時間推進，我認為我們會看到因為 IA 的關係，整體會更往下半年移動。另外我也提到，即便在最近這一季，LitePoint 在下半年（尤其是第二季之後的下半年）表現非常強勁。因此，IA 的影響、加上行動裝置端波動性降低，我認為會讓全年更趨於平衡，但仍會帶有一點第四季拉升的趨勢。

So how will it look like this year? Should second half be down less? Or...

那麼今年會是什麼樣子？下半年應該會下滑得比較少嗎？或者……

It's hard to be certain. But if we had to say the contour, it would probably look more like '18 than '17, is how we think about it.

很難確定。但如果一定要描述輪廓，我們認為它看起來可能會更像 2018 年而不是 2017 年。

Okay, great. And just, Mark, going back to IA, it's -- we have all been going through the learning curve. You see industrial auto out there weak, but you're still able to grow the business, now granted at a lower growth rate. So can you just maybe help us understand how this growth rate, the secular nature of it is defying the overall industrial auto that is very weak out there? And I look at industrial laser is very weak, but what is it with IA that still enables you to grow? What -- and in that context, is it the replacement? Or what is it that hasn't really felt a meaningful slowdown, now granted the slower growth rate?

好的，很棒。另外，Mark，回到 IA，我們大家都在經歷學習曲線。你看到外面的工業自動化偏弱，但你仍然能讓業務成長，當然成長率較低。所以你能否幫我們理解，這個成長率、其長期結構性（secular）的特質，為何能夠逆勢於整體非常疲弱的工業自動化？我看到工業雷射也很弱，但 IA 是什麼因素仍然讓你能成長？在這個脈絡下，是汰換需求嗎？或者是什麼因素讓它沒有感受到明顯的放緩——當然成長率是變慢了？

Yes, right. So first of all, I'll just contrast. There's traditional industrial automation that is tightly, tightly tied to macroeconomic effects. The segment we're in, which is emerging and still although -- quite small and growing rapidly, although not immune from it because we've talked about automotive and China, has such a vast ROI opportunity set ahead of it that it's really not going to be subject to the strong macroeconomic effects. So for example, we're talking about $260 million of IA revenue last year for cobots, both mobile and fixed. When we look at the bottoms-up analytics of how many opportunities there are out there in small, medium and large enterprises to achieve automation using our products with ROIs well under 18 months and, in most cases, under a year, we're talking about tens of billions of dollars of opportunities today with the capabilities of today's cobot. When you add some of the new capabilities that Greg alluded to around vision, the ability to pick pieces out of bins without human interaction, that doubles. So we see this opportunity set of $100 billion, of which $260-ish million has been tapped. That's what gives us the confidence. And that's the overarching sort of pull for the product that will not be immune to macroeconomic effects but will, over the long term, certainly run the growth rate well above the mean.

是的，沒錯。首先我先做個對比。傳統的工業自動化與總體經濟影響高度、非常高度連動。我們所在的這個區隔屬於新興領域，規模仍小但成長很快；雖然也不是完全免疫，因為我們談過汽車與中國，但它前方有非常龐大的投資報酬率（ROI）機會集合，因此不太會受到強烈的總體經濟影響。例如，我們去年協作機器人（cobot）IA 營收約 2.6 億美元，包含移動式與固定式。當我們用由下而上的分析去看，在小型、中型與大型企業中，使用我們的產品來實現自動化、且 ROI 明顯低於 18 個月、在多數情況下甚至不到 1 年的機會有多少時，我們談的是以今天協作機器人的能力，就已經有數百億美元等級的機會。若再加上 Greg 提到的一些新能力，例如視覺（vision）、能在無需人工介入下從料箱中取出零件的能力，這個機會規模會加倍。因此我們看到的是 1,000 億美元的機會集合，而目前只開發了約 2.6 億美元左右。這就是我們有信心的原因。而這也是產品整體的拉力（pull）：它不會對總體經濟完全免疫，但長期而言，成長率肯定會遠高於平均水準。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

Let me echo the thoughts, Greg. Definitely will miss you, and thanks for everything. I guess first question on the IA side. I just want to confirm, in terms of the growth rate of 35%, 40% for calendar '19, that is off of pro forma of $269 million, not what you recognized in $261 million? And as the second part to the question, how should I think about the linearity of the business first half versus second half? I would assume the growth rate year-on-year would be slower first half given the uncertainty we're seeing out of China.

讓我呼應一下大家的想法，Greg。一定會想念你，也謝謝你所做的一切。我想先問 IA 方面的問題。我想確認一下，關於 2019 年曆年的 35%、40% 成長率，是以備考（pro forma）的 2.69 億美元為基礎，而不是你們認列的 2.61 億美元嗎？第二個問題是，上半年與下半年在業務線性（linearity）上應該怎麼看？我猜在中國不確定性之下，上半年的年增率應該會比較慢。

All right. It's Greg. Thank you for your nice comment. It's $261 million, so it is the actual, not the pro forma, just to clarify that first point.

好的。我是 Greg。謝謝你的好意。是 2.61 億美元，所以是實際數字，不是備考數字，先澄清第一點。

Okay.

好的。

Okay. And then the growth rate does pick up in the second quarter. And similar to last year, second and third are kind of similar, and then -- this is our estimate. In fourth quarter, we have our strongest quarter, so it does pick up through the year.

好的。然後成長率在第二季會回升。而且和去年類似，第二季和第三季大致相近，然後——這是我們的估計——第四季是我們最強的一季，所以全年會逐季走升。

Okay, great. And then I guess if you think about overall business trends, you put up a very stellar gross margin in the December quarter. Were there any onetime sort of issues to think about there? Or how should we think about the trajectory for gross margins into calendar '19?

好的，很棒。接著我想就整體業務趨勢問一下，你們在 12 月季度的毛利率非常亮眼。那裡面有任何一次性（one-time）的因素需要考量嗎？或者我們應該如何看待 2019 年曆年毛利率的走勢？

C.J., there were no onetime things. We had -- we didn't have a large customer buying, which could -- pulls margins down, so we had more favorable mix. But our supply line group has done a lot of work with Universal Robots and are starting with MiR next to get better supply arrangements, tool sources, lower material costs. So I think it's good pick-and-shovel work that has improved the company's P&L. If you go back several years, we were 54% to 56% gross margin year-after-year. So we've really moved it up a couple of points. So it's good performance, and we're going to continue to work the material costs down and try to get more. But sometimes when we get more, it ends up going back to the customer in competitive shootouts, but we're still glad that we got them more, so we can at least hold margins where we are.

C.J.，沒有任何一次性的因素。我們——我們沒有出現某個大客戶的大量採購（那種情況可能會拉低毛利率），所以產品組合更有利。但我們的供應鏈團隊與 Universal Robots 做了很多工作，也開始與 MiR 著手，去爭取更好的供應安排、工具來源，以及更低的材料成本。所以我認為這是扎實的基礎改善工作（pick-and-shovel work），提升了公司的損益表（P&L）。如果你回看幾年前，我們的毛利率年復一年大約在 54% 到 56%。所以我們確實把它提高了幾個百分點。這是很好的表現，我們也會持續把材料成本往下壓，並嘗試再提升。但有時候當我們拿到更多改善，最後在競爭性搶案（competitive shootouts）中會回饋給客戶；不過我們仍然很高興能先把改善拿到手，至少能把毛利率維持在目前水準。

Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Atif Malik。

Greg, congratulations on a stellar career. First question, Mark, can you remind us what is your market share in the memory market today and what your aspirations will be with the launch of the high-speed DRAM tester this year?

Greg，恭喜你有個非常傑出的職涯。第一個問題，Mark，你能提醒我們目前在記憶體市場的市占率是多少？以及今年推出高速 DRAM 測試機後，你們的目標是什麼？

Yes, that's a good question. So 2018, roughly 29% market share in memory test. That was the beginning of penetrating wafer test in 2018. So in 2019, we expect to bring that up to sort of 33%, in that range. And then in the midterm, we can get to 40% with the introduction of this high-speed DRAM package tester as well as continued expansion in the wafer test.

是的，這是個好問題。2018 年我們在記憶體測試的市占率大約是 29%。2018 年也是我們開始切入晶圓測試（wafer test）的一年。所以在 2019 年，我們預期會把市占率提升到大約 33% 左右的區間。然後在中期，隨著這款高速 DRAM 封裝測試機（package tester）的導入，以及晶圓測試的持續擴張，我們可以達到 40%。

Okay. And then I'm really encouraged by the growth you're seeing in the wireless test market. Can you tell us what your 5G sales percentage is of the Wireless Test sales and where you see it going? And the reason I'm asking that is we're seeing a pretty substantial growth in 5G-related equipment sales at Anritsu and Keysight.

好的。另外，我對你們在無線測試市場看到的成長感到很振奮。你能告訴我們 5G 銷售占無線測試銷售的比例是多少，以及你認為它會往哪裡走嗎？我之所以這樣問，是因為我們看到 Anritsu 和 Keysight 的 5G 相關設備銷售成長相當可觀。

The wireless businesses here, we have gotten some 5G key strategic design-in business. They are less about the dollars. It's more about we're in the key chipset players. And therefore, when it does go to production in 2021 or thereabouts, we've got the best position because we're the best in production. So we're a little less focused on the dollars, but it's millions of dollars we've gotten in 5G. We have had very good business from other standards. And in Wireless Test, there's a plethora of new technologies, new standards. There's multiple even 5G technologies. There's WiFi 6 coming. So we've talked about LitePoint being in a lull and having pretty good financial performance for being in a lull, having good profits and good gross margins. I suspect for the next several years, LitePoint is going to have tailwinds at their back after having headwinds for 3 years or so with all these new standards coming out, and you need new testers for these new standards, and LitePoint is the leader in production. So I think LitePoint is in great spot for the next several years.

我們這邊的無線業務已取得一些 5G 關鍵策略性的設計導入（design-in）案子。這些案子比較不是看金額。更重要的是我們已經進入關鍵晶片組（chipset）玩家。因此當它在 2021 年左右進入量產時，我們會處於最佳位置，因為我們在量產端是最強的。所以我們對金額的關注稍微少一些，但我們在 5G 上已拿到數百萬美元等級的業務。我們也在其他標準上有非常不錯的業務。而在無線測試領域，有大量的新技術、新標準。甚至 5G 也有多種技術路線。WiFi 6 也即將到來。所以我們談到 LitePoint 正處於一個低潮期（lull），但以低潮期來說仍有相當不錯的財務表現，獲利與毛利率都很好。我猜接下來幾年，LitePoint 在經歷了大約 3 年的逆風之後，會迎來順風，因為這些新標準陸續推出，你需要新的測試機來支援，而 LitePoint 是量產測試的領導者。所以我認為 LitePoint 在未來幾年處於非常好的位置。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin 專線。

I have a few questions. But first, congratulations on a strong finish to the year and an early congratulations to Greg on his planned retirement. First, I had a question on Industrial Automation. In terms of the new long-term growth rate, you are clearly the market leader in this space. But I can make the counterintuitive argument here that you would benefit from the emergence of another good competitor, which to date hasn't materialized. And by that, I mean, it's a lot for UR to have to shoulder the load virtually alone in terms of marketing, training and the development of future collaborative robot applications. Would be interested to get your perspective on that.

我有幾個問題。不過首先，恭喜你們在年底有個強勁的收尾，也提前恭喜 Greg 按計畫即將退休。首先，我想問工業自動化（Industrial Automation）。就新的長期成長率而言，你們顯然是這個領域的市場領導者。但我在這裡可以提出一個反直覺的論點：你們其實會受益於另一個優秀競爭對手的出現，但到目前為止並未發生。我的意思是，就行銷、訓練以及未來協作機器人應用的開發而言，幾乎要由 UR 單獨扛起這個負擔，這是很大的壓力。很想聽聽你們對此的看法。

Well, I think I would never directly wish for that, but you're -- you have a -- there's a bit of truth to what you're saying. We are developing the market in terms of creating market awareness and creating demand. A latent demand is out there, but there's no precedent here to ride on. Now early in the cobot era, the company Rethink Robotics, that recently folded, led some of the evangelism around the cobot market that UR rode those coattails and then surpassed them dramatically. And we're at the tip of the spear now blazing that trail. And it is one of the principal challenges we have, that it's awareness. It's market awareness that limits growth. All that being said, we're working on a lot of things this year to enhance that. Our lead generation capability is developing rapidly. And we're not going to wait for a competitor to do that work for us. We're actually step -- a lot of the OpEx that Greg's talked about here is toward that end.

嗯，我想我不會直接希望那樣，但你說的——你有——你說的確實有幾分道理。我們正在開發市場，包括建立市場認知並創造需求。潛在需求確實存在，但這裡沒有任何先例可供依循。在協作機器人（cobot）時代的早期，Rethink Robotics 這家公司（最近已倒閉）在 cobot 市場的推廣宣傳上扮演了部分領頭角色，UR 也曾受惠於他們的帶動，之後又大幅超越他們。而現在我們站在最前線，正在開闢這條道路。這也是我們面臨的主要挑戰之一：認知度。限制成長的是市場認知度。話雖如此，我們今年正在推動許多事情來強化這一點。我們的潛在客戶開發（lead generation）能力正在快速提升。我們不會等競爭對手替我們做這些工作。事實上，Greg 在這裡談到的許多營運費用（OpEx）就是朝這個方向投入。

Sure. Yes, that's helpful. Before -- I had one question on the Wireless Test as well, but just a part B to just IA. In terms of that 35% to 40% growth in 2019, what does that imply for UR growth? And then let me just ask the Wireless Test question, and then you can answer that. It was a $1 billion TAM earlier this decade. It sounds like some 5G cellular is starting to kick in a little bit in '19, but that's really a 2020, probably, go forward. What could that TAM go to, at least $500 million, $600 million and maybe higher even? What is a reasonable expectation for LitePoint market share?

了解。是的，這很有幫助。在——我也有一個關於無線測試（Wireless Test）問題，但先就工業自動化補問一個部分 B。就 2019 年 35% 到 40% 的成長而言，這對 UR 的成長意味著什麼？然後我再問無線測試的問題，你可以一起回答。本十年初期它的 TAM 約為 10 億美元。聽起來 2019 年 5G 行動通訊開始有些啟動，但真正的推進大概是在 2020 年之後。那麼這個 TAM 可能會到多少，至少 5 億、6 億美元，甚至更高嗎？對 LitePoint 的市占率，有什麼合理的期待？

Got it. Okay, starting with the first question. What was the first question?

了解。好，先從第一個問題開始。第一個問題是什麼？

UR -- the UR component.

UR——UR 的部分。

Oh, yes.

喔，是的。

You see why he's got to retire here.

你看他為什麼得退休了。

Good question. All right, you threw me off. In the 35% to 40% growth, UR would be about 28% because MiR is about 100% growth, so MiR is helping UR. And keep in mind, 28% is probably the lowest growth rate UR has ever had, and that was the quarter from Q3 to Q4. That's a very short time period. So we think we've got UR in at a reasonable, maybe cautious level, but there are some uncertainties ahead the next quarter or 2.

好問題。好吧，你把我搞亂了。在 35% 到 40% 的成長中，UR 大約會是 28%，因為 MiR 約為 100% 成長，所以 MiR 正在拉抬 UR。而且請記住，28% 可能是 UR 有史以來最低的成長率，而那是從第三季到第四季的那個季度。那是一段非常短的時間。所以我們認為我們對 UR 的假設是合理的，或許偏保守，但接下來一到兩季仍有一些不確定性。

5G TAM.

5G TAM。

The 5G TAM, there's a couple of pieces to it. LitePoint, we think starting in 2021, there's a little bit of activity, probably tens of millions. But the TAM for LitePoint is probably $100 million to $150 million higher for several years starting in 2021. This is a production portion for 5G. And then in semi, when you put it all together, it's probably $300 million to $400 million. That includes $100 million to $200 million for the RF piece, and the data processing piece makes up the balance to get you to $300 million to $400 million. And our share is quite -- is very healthy in semi. We probably get half of that. And then in LitePoint, that will be determined. We were not big players in 4G, but we're early in 5G, and we're working with a number of the key set -- key chipset players. So we expect to have meaningful share in 5G cellular at LitePoint. And keep -- and there's also multiple standards at LitePoint. There's a sub-6G coming first and millimeter wave coming later.

5G TAM 有幾個部分。就 LitePoint 而言，我們認為從 2021 年開始會有一些活動，可能是數千萬美元等級。但對 LitePoint 來說，從 2021 年起連續好幾年，TAM 可能會增加約 1 億到 1.5 億美元。這是 5G 的量產（production）部分。然後在半導體（semi）方面，把所有部分加總起來，TAM 大概是 3 億到 4 億美元。其中包含 RF 部分的 1 億到 2 億美元，而資料處理部分則構成其餘，合計達到 3 億到 4 億美元。而我們在半導體的市占相當——非常健康。我們大概能拿到其中一半。至於 LitePoint，那將取決於市場發展。我們在 4G 時不是主要玩家，但在 5G 我們切入得早，並且正與多家關鍵的——關鍵晶片組（chipset）廠商合作。因此我們預期 LitePoint 在 5G 行動通訊會有具意義的市占。另外——而且 LitePoint 也有多種標準。會先推出 sub-6G，毫米波（millimeter wave）則會晚一些。

Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar 專線。

I had 2 questions. Number one is on the memory test market, if I look at your commentary, is it fair to assume that memory test this year is going to be down about 25%, but your revenues in memory might be down only 10%? I just want to check if the math is right.

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於記憶體測試市場：如果我看你們的評論，是否可以合理假設今年記憶體測試市場會下滑約 25%，但你們在記憶體的營收可能只下滑 10%？我只是想確認我的計算是否正確。

Yes. The market itself last year will have finished in the $900 million to $1 billion. We'll sort it out in the next few months as to what it really was. But yes, if the market is going to be in that sort of, let's say, nominally $700 million range, it's down 20, low 20s, I think we will be down much, much less than that and because of the share gains we've picked up. So roughly, the math you've done is right.

是的。市場本身去年應該會落在 9 億到 10 億美元。接下來幾個月我們會再釐清實際數字到底是多少。但沒錯，如果市場會落在那種——比如名目上約 7 億美元的區間，那就是下滑 20% 出頭、20% 初頭；我認為我們的下滑幅度會遠、遠小於此，因為我們拿到了一些市占提升。所以大致上，你算的數學是對的。

Got it, got it. And then a follow-up on IA. It looks like bin picking seems to be the next big killer app for cobots. And it seems like you guys have a bin-picking beta solution coming out later this year, and you've spoken about in the past about a 2020 ramp with that. Is there -- are you seeing any indication from customers that this is going to be a pretty steep ramp next year? And what are the prime -- what are the main industry or the main verticals driving this bin-picking uptick?

了解，了解。然後再追問一個關於工業自動化（IA）。看起來料箱取放（bin picking）似乎是協作機器人的下一個重大殺手級應用。而且看起來你們今年稍晚會推出一個料箱取放的 beta 解決方案，你們過去也談過 2020 年會放量（ramp）。你們是否從客戶那邊看到任何跡象，顯示明年會是一個相當陡峭的放量？以及推動這波料箱取放需求上升的主要產業或主要垂直領域是哪些？

Bin picking, if you look at the number of people that are doing these tedious, mind-numbing bin-picking tasks, it's close to the number of all other tasks. It's a very high number of tasks. Now the first bin-picking machine or solution we're going to provide is going to be able to do much more than any other bin-picking machine because it has path planning in it, so it can pick the object up at the right post, doesn't have to put it down again. It's more likely to be able to empty a bin and place parts with precision. So it's going to be a step function above what's available today. Now it'll take time to train the distributors and the integrators, so there's a rollout period that'll take time. There might be some parts, whether they're too shiny or they have an odd configuration, that we may not go after right away. But it's a very large market that I suspect is going to be a beginning of a multiyear large wave of bin picking. And there'll probably be new advanced grippers developed by some for the capability we're providing. But we're excited about it because we saw this many years ago as an enormous untapped market that was hard to get to. And with Energid, that was the missing piece, and low-cost vision modules have come to market, so the pieces are there. Now to do it, now we're just finishing up the user interface and making sure it all works seamlessly at the right speed and so forth. So very excited about it, and I think you'll see 2019 the beginning of early part of that wave -- oh, I'm sorry, 2020, 2020.

料箱拣选（bin picking），如果你看看有多少人在做這些繁瑣、令人麻木的料箱拣選工作，這個人數幾乎接近所有其他工作的人數總和。這是一個非常龐大的工作量。現在，我們將提供的第一套料箱拣選機器或解決方案，將能做得比任何其他料箱拣選機器更多，因為它內建路徑規劃，因此能在正確的位置抓取物件，不必再把它放下重來。它更有可能把整個料箱清空，並精準地放置零件。所以它將比目前市面上的方案高出一個層級，呈現躍升式的提升。接下來需要時間訓練經銷商與系統整合商，因此會有一段需要時間的導入／推廣期。也可能有些零件，無論是太過光亮或外形配置很奇特，我們可能不會立刻切入。但這是一個非常大的市場，我猜這將會是未來多年、規模龐大的一波料箱拣選浪潮的開端。而且可能會有人針對我們所提供的能力，開發新的先進夾爪。不過我們對此感到很興奮，因為多年前我們就把它視為一個巨大、尚未被開發且難以切入的市場。而有了 Energid，那個缺失的拼圖就補上了；同時低成本視覺模組也已進入市場，所以各個要素都到位了。現在要做的就是，我們正在完成使用者介面，並確保它能以合適的速度等條件順暢無縫地運作。所以我們非常興奮，我想你會看到 2019 年是那波浪潮早期的開始——喔，不好意思，是 2020，2020 年。

Congrats, Greg.

恭喜你，Greg。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Eastman with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Richard Eastman。

Yes. Mark, could you maybe -- and maybe this -- you've provided this, but could just speak to where the SOC test market ended up in '18?

是的。Mark，你能不能——也許你之前已經提過——談一下 2018 年 SOC 測試市場最後的結果大概落在哪裡？

In terms of size of the market? Yes.

你是指市場規模嗎？是的。

Yes, correct.

對，沒錯。

Again, like memory, we're still a few months away from having final numbers on that. But our estimate, it's in the $2.9 billion to $3 billion range, is how it ended.

同樣地，像記憶體一樣，我們距離拿到最終數字還有幾個月。但我們的估計是，最後大約落在 29 億到 30 億美元的區間。

Okay. And then just a question, we're seeing some of the analog chip vendors kind of throw up warning flags. As well, kind of hear STMicro and TI. And I'm curious, as you look out to '19, I've got -- this $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion was kind of your estimate, but then -- for the market. But I'm curious, the shift in the marketplace, how do you see that playing out? Does analog stay stronger? Or mobility, obviously, I think you kind of suggested might be flattish to down a little bit. But I'm just curious how you think, the pieces within the marketplace, where the strength might lie versus where the risk might be?

好的。接著再問一個問題，我們看到一些類比晶片供應商似乎開始發出警訊。另外也聽到像 STMicro 和 TI 這樣的公司。我想問的是，當你展望 2019 年時，我這邊看到你對市場的估計大概是 23 億到 27 億美元——但我好奇的是，市場結構的變化，你認為會怎麼發展？類比會維持比較強嗎？或者行動（mobility），顯然你似乎暗示可能持平到小幅下滑。我只是想了解你怎麼看市場內部各個板塊，哪裡可能比較強、哪裡風險可能比較大？

Okay. Yes, so I think let's start with mobility because it's the biggest piece of the market still. So in 2019, mobility, I think, will be down a little bit because of some of the onetime effects I alluded to earlier. I think our business will be roughly flat year-over-year, but the market itself could come down a couple of hundred million because of some of this onetime tooling that occurred in '18 around some foundry shifts. So that's a significant part of that reduction. The automotive and linear, I think, are going to be pretty -- from what I can tell today, linear could be off of this sort of all-time high it was in '18 but not much. It may be certainly 10% or less is what it would look like in the model. And automotive looks still pretty healthy, so flattish. So that leaves other areas such as PC-related, GPU, cloud-related things. And that should be down in that sort of 10%, 15%, 20% range. So when you add those up because of that $200 million-ish drop in mobility because of these onetime effects, that's how you get to the TAM.

好的。是的，我想先從行動（mobility）開始，因為它仍然是市場中最大的一塊。所以在 2019 年，我認為行動可能會小幅下滑，原因是我先前提到的一些一次性影響。我認為我們的業務年對年大致持平，但市場本身可能會因為 2018 年在某些晶圓代工轉移（foundry shifts）相關的一次性治具／工具（tooling）而下滑幾億美元中的兩億左右。所以那是造成下滑的重要部分。至於車用與線性（linear），以我目前看到的情況，我認為會相當——線性可能會從 2018 年的歷史高點回落一些，但幅度不大。在模型裡看起來可能是 10% 或更低。而車用看起來仍然相當健康，所以大致持平。那剩下的就是其他領域，例如與 PC 相關、GPU、雲端相關等。那些可能會下滑大約 10%、15%、20% 這樣的區間。所以把這些加總起來，再加上行動因一次性因素下滑約 2 億美元左右，這就是你看到 TAM 的原因。

I see. Okay, okay, that's really helpful. And then just one last question around the IA business. What do acquisition prospects look like there? Is there still a healthy pipeline? And do they slant software? Or just maybe just characterize that a little bit perhaps, Greg.

了解。好，好，這很有幫助。最後再問一個關於 IA 業務的問題。那邊的併購機會看起來如何？目前還有健康的案源（pipeline）嗎？會偏向軟體嗎？或者請你稍微描述一下，Greg。

It's an incredibly healthy pipeline. This is a space where there's many start-ups. It's a whole new greenfield, so there's next-generation technology. There's a number of software players. It's hard to synthesize precisely what's out there. But what we see is companies that can fit with our next-generation automation that is automating tedious tasks. And there's other pieces that could fit into our portfolio. But I'll add, there's nothing we need. And what I'm really excited about is, in some of our products -- you take MiR this year. MiR has expanded into the MiR500, so they've expanded their product lineup into heavier payload. They've also expanded into hospitals. Now the more we can take our existing products and get into new markets or submarkets, that's probably the highest ROI. But there very well may be some other nice pieces. Another Energid is possible, the path planning should open up bin picking. That's more of an emerging technology that no one else had. Vision was available. We weren't going to get into vision. So there's other -- it's a little bit of a chess game. There's other pieces that may be possible that we buy them and accelerate them or we just work with them as a partner. So there's a lot of that work going on by our BDL group to try to figure out what's the next best chess move to make.

案源非常健康。這個領域有很多新創公司。這是一個全新的綠地市場，所以有下一代技術。也有不少軟體業者。要精準地把外面有哪些東西完整整合起來其實不容易。但我們看到的是，那些能與我們下一代自動化相契合的公司——也就是把繁瑣工作自動化。另外也有其他部分可能適合納入我們的產品組合。不過我也要補充，我們並沒有非買不可的缺口。而我真正感到興奮的是，在我們某些產品上——以今年的 MiR 為例。MiR 已擴展到 MiR500，也就是把產品線延伸到更高載重。他們也擴展到醫院場景。因此，我們越能把既有產品帶進新市場或次級市場，那可能就是最高的投資報酬率（ROI）。但確實也很可能還有一些其他很不錯的拼圖。再出現另一個 Energid 也是有可能的；路徑規劃應該能打開料箱拣選。那是一種更偏新興的技術，是其他人沒有的。視覺是現成可得的。我們不打算切入視覺。所以還有其他——這有點像下棋。有些其他拼圖可能我們會買下來並加速它們，或是我們就以合作夥伴方式與它們合作。所以我們的 BDL 團隊正在做很多這方面的工作，試著找出下一步最好的『棋步』該怎麼走。

And mostly, again, from your comments, this is around expanding applications, a little bit more software, there's not a lot of hardware that you're really looking at?

而且大多數——再確認一下，從你的說法看起來，這主要是圍繞在擴展應用、更多一些軟體，你們其實沒有在看太多硬體，對嗎？

Correct, correct, yes.

對，對，沒錯。

Okay. And best of luck, Greg.

好的。祝你好運，Greg。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a follow-up question on your analog test business. Mark, you talked about the upside you saw in Q4 and the strength you saw throughout 2018 as it relates to Eagle Test. How should we reconcile that commentary with some of the trends that your customers are speaking to in terms of weakness in the near term? Is it the complexity kind of dynamic offsetting the unit weakness? Or is it timing? Is it a little bit of both? How should we think about that?

我有一個關於你們類比測試業務的追問。Mark，你談到你在第四季看到的上行空間，以及你在2018年整體看到的強勁表現，這些都與 Eagle Test 有關。我們該如何把這些評論，與你們客戶所提到的近期疲弱趨勢相互對照理解？是複雜度的動態在抵消出貨單位的疲弱嗎？還是時點問題？或是兩者都有一點？我們應該怎麼看待這件事？

I think it's timing. In terms of the recent commentary, the effects of that, if -- to the -- the magnitude and the effects of that would be we're probably still 3 months away. In 2018, the unit and complexity growth both were very encouraging. And things like unit growth could be tempered here. Complexity growth, I don't think is abating whatsoever. So the recent quarterly announcements from some of the key analog players, if, in fact, there's an effect that we're going to feel from that, it's probably yet to be -- it's probably some second quarter.

我認為是時點問題。就近期的評論而言，其影響——如果要談其幅度與影響——我們可能還要再過大約3個月才會感受到。在2018年，出貨單位與複雜度的成長都非常令人鼓舞。而像出貨單位成長這類指標，在這裡可能會被抑制一些。但複雜度成長我認為完全沒有放緩。所以，一些關鍵類比廠商最近的季度公告，如果確實會對我們造成影響，我們大概還沒感受到——可能要到第二季左右。

Got it. And then my follow-up was on long-term gross margins. You guys came in at 58% in 2018. You're guiding long-term gross margins to, I guess, kind of stay where they are today in the 57% to 58% range. It feels like you guys continue to make progress in terms of improving gross margins at UR. You talked about, I guess, upside at MiR. I think LitePoint, which has a nice trajectory, historically has had very nice gross margins when things were good. So I guess the question is, is 57% to 58% more of a conservative target? Or are there kind of minuses that I am not aware of?

了解。接著我的追問是關於長期毛利率。你們2018年是58%。你們對長期毛利率的指引，我想是大致維持在目前的57%到58%區間。感覺你們在提升 UR 的毛利率方面持續有進展。你們也談到 MiR 可能有上行空間。我認為 LitePoint 的走勢不錯，而且歷史上在景氣好的時候毛利率也非常漂亮。所以我的問題是：57%到58%是否比較偏保守的目標？還是有一些我不知道的負面因素？

There aren't minuses right now that we have in mind. There's -- I'll say there's more new accounts in Semi Test around IA that is a whole new battlefield that are jump balls. But I think what I had in mind when I put those numbers in is, in Universal Robots, there are going to be very large customers buying cobots in some volume. And I expect when that happens, there'll be better competition we'll be up against, and we'll be competing for kind of the design-in for the next 100, 500 or some higher number of cobots. And that's what I'm thinking that while we'll get material costs down, some of it will be diminished by some of the large account negotiations.

目前我們沒有想到什麼負面因素。我會說，在半導體測試、尤其是圍繞 IA 的部分，會有更多新客戶，這是一個全新的戰場，很多案子都是五五波。但我在放入那些數字時的想法是，在 Universal Robots 這邊，會有非常大型的客戶以一定的量採購協作機器人。而我預期一旦發生那種情況，我們將面對更強的競爭，並且會為了下一批100台、500台或更高數量的協作機器人的設計導入而競爭。我的想法是，雖然我們會把材料成本降下來，但其中一部分會被大型客戶的議價談判所抵消。

Your last question comes from the line of Thomas Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

最後一個問題來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Thomas Diffely。

Yes. I'd like to ask one more question on the memory side. I guess in general, what percentage of the DRAM test market is high-speed NIC today? And it sounds like, with the speeds going up across the board, that they become a bigger part of that market going forward. So just your views on the high-speed part of DRAM.

是的。我想在記憶體方面再問一個問題。一般來說，目前 DRAM 測試市場中，高速 NIC 佔比大約是多少？而且聽起來，隨著整體速度全面提升，未來它們會在該市場中占更大的比重。所以想請教你們對 DRAM 高速部分的看法。

Yes. It does shift year-to-year quite a bit depending on the pricing of the commodities. Are memory manufacturers going to shift investments toward NAND or for -- toward DRAM? But I would say, as a general rule of thumb, the final tester DRAM is about 20-ish percent of the overall memory test market.

是的。這個占比每年會有相當大的變動，取決於大宗商品的價格。記憶體製造商會把投資轉向 NAND，還是——轉向 DRAM？但我會說，作為一個大致的經驗法則，最終測試機（final tester）用於 DRAM 的部分，大約佔整體記憶體測試市場的20%左右。

And then the high-speed portion of that versus commodity DRAM?

那其中高速的部分相對於大宗 DRAM 的占比呢？

Most of it, in terms of new investment is high speed. For sort of commodity, old-school DRAM, there's not a lot of capacity expansion. Old-generation equipment can sort of be a waterfall back there. So anything being bought tends to be for high speed.

就新增投資而言，大多數都是高速。至於那種大宗、傳統的 DRAM，產能擴張不多。舊世代設備在那邊某種程度上可以一路往下承接使用。所以任何正在採購的設備，通常都是為了高速。

Okay, great. And finally, when you look at the NAND market or the -- I should say, the hybrid market with things like cross-point, what type of tester do you need for that market? And is that changing over time as well?

好的，很好。最後，當你看 NAND 市場，或——我應該說像 cross-point 這類產品的混合型市場時，那個市場需要什麼類型的測試機？而且這也會隨時間改變嗎？

I'd say one of the things we've seen in memories and flash especially and sort of derivatives of flash is a lot of diversity in the protocols of I/O. The internal sales structures and such aren't significant in the impact to the tester, but the I/O protocols are. And the products that we've developed for flash, the thing that's allowed them to be so successful is how quickly we can adapt them for these higher and higher-speed emerging protocols. So that applies not to the cross-point-type products and all these products.

我會說，我們在記憶體與特別是快閃（flash），以及某種程度上快閃的衍生產品中看到的一件事，是 I/O 協定在多樣性上非常高。內部的銷售架構之類的，對測試機的影響不大，但 I/O 協定會。而我們為快閃所開發的產品之所以能如此成功，關鍵在於我們能多快把它們調整以支援這些速度越來越高的新興協定。所以這不只適用於 cross-point 類型產品，也適用於所有這些產品。

All right. Well, great. Thanks, everybody, and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. This concludes the call.

好。那很棒。謝謝各位，我們也期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。本次電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。