泰瑞達 (TER) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Teradyne Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安。我叫 Michelle，今天將擔任本次會議的電話會議接線員。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 Teradyne 2018 年第三季（Q3）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Blanchard, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Andy Blanchard。請開始。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Beecher.

謝謝你，Michelle。各位早安，歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela，以及財務長 Greg Beecher。

The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening, and we are providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call concludes.

包含我們第三季業績的新聞稿已於昨晚發布；我們也在網站的投資人頁面提供簡報投影片，協助各位跟進本次討論。本次電話會議結束後，亦可透過同一頁面收聽重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及可能導致 Teradyne 實際結果與管理層目前預期出現重大差異的風險因素。我們建議各位查閱財報新聞稿中的「安全港」聲明，以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準，我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之事態發展而更新之義務。

During today's call, we will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, where available, on the Investor page of the website. Also, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in investor conferences hosted by UBS, Baird, Crédit Suisse and Goldman Sachs.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在網站投資人頁面張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊，包括在可取得的情況下，與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。另外，在下一次財報電話會議之前，Teradyne 將參加由 UBS、Baird、瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）與高盛（Goldman Sachs）主辦的投資人會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results, current market conditions and outlook for the year. Greg will then offer more details on our quarterly financial results, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

現在我們進入其餘議程。首先，Mark 將就我們近期業績、目前市場狀況以及今年展望發表評論。接著 Greg 將提供更多關於本季財務結果的細節，並提出第四季指引。之後我們將回答各位的提問；本次電話會議預計 1 小時。Mark？

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。

As you saw in the release, we had a great third quarter with earnings above our guidance, and we expect a strong fourth quarter as well. Today, I'm going to cover the third quarter and year-to-date highlights, provide a framework for looking at our midterm plan and update you on our capital allocation strategy. Greg will then give you a rundown on our financial performance, Q4 guidance and provide some additional color on accomplishments year-to-date.

如各位在新聞稿中所見，我們第三季表現非常出色，獲利高於我們的指引，我們也預期第四季同樣強勁。今天我將回顧第三季與年初至今的重點，提供一個檢視我們中期計畫的架構，並向各位更新我們的資本配置策略。接著 Greg 將說明我們的財務表現、第四季指引，並補充一些年初至今成果的更多背景。

In Q3, across the company, we saw a continuation of the 2018 positive trends we've described in earlier calls, as organic sales grew 11% and overall sales grew 13% year-over-year. In Semiconductor Test, we saw strong demand in nearly all end markets.

在第三季，全公司延續了我們在先前電話會議中所描述的 2018 年正向趨勢；有機銷售成長 11%，整體銷售年增 13%。在半導體測試方面，我們在幾乎所有終端市場都看到強勁需求。

In SOC, Eagle analog tester sales in the quarter were especially notable, coming in over 1/3 higher than a year-ago level and up over 20% through the first 9 months of the year. This was driven by expanding analog demand for both automotive and industrial markets.

在 SOC 方面，本季 Eagle 類比測試機的銷售尤其突出，較去年同期高出逾三分之一，且在今年前 9 個月累計成長超過 20%。這主要受汽車與工業市場對類比需求擴大所帶動。

We also had strong demand in the quarter for image sensor testers due to their continued expansion in both smartphone and automotive applications.

由於影像感測器在智慧型手機與汽車應用中持續擴張，我們本季對影像感測器測試機也有強勁需求。

RF tester demand was also picking up, driven by next-generation mobile network devices with higher complexity than earlier products. This broad strength translates into a 2018 SOC market size that will likely exceed our earlier $2.4 billion estimate and end up in the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion range.

RF 測試機需求也在回升，主要由於下一代行動網路裝置的複雜度高於先前產品所帶動。這種廣泛的強勢意味著 2018 年 SOC 市場規模很可能會超過我們先前估計的 24 億美元，最終落在 26 億至 27 億美元區間。

In memory, much has been written in the press about slowing front-end equipment investments, but today, we have not seen any impact on our memory test business. Our memory shipments in the quarter grew 30% sequentially and through 9 months, totaled $226 million, up 87% compared to 2017. The aggressive adoption of higher-speed interfaces for smartphones and our Magnum product's differentiation at package and now wafer test have provided a solid foundation to our growing memory business. At this point, our outlook for memory in the fourth quarter looks strong, and we expect the memory test market to end up between $900 million to $1 billion for the year.

在記憶體方面，媒體對前段設備投資放緩已有許多報導，但截至目前，我們尚未看到對記憶體測試業務造成任何影響。我們本季記憶體出貨量較前一季成長 30%，且今年前 9 個月合計達 2.26 億美元，較 2017 年成長 87%。智慧型手機更高速介面的積極採用，以及我們 Magnum 產品在封裝測試、以及如今在晶圓測試上的差異化，為我們成長中的記憶體業務提供了穩固基礎。目前我們對第四季記憶體的展望仍然強勁，並預期今年記憶體測試市場規模將落在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

Our Industrial Automation businesses continue to grow nicely in the quarter. Universal Robots grew 46% in the third quarter compared with the year-ago quarter, and is up 42% for the 9 months -- first 9 months of the year. I will note, however, that UR sales growth in China has slowed due to economic uncertainty at Chinese manufacturers caused by trade and tariff disputes. Excluding China, UR sales grew 54% in Q3 compared to Q3 of '17. Primarily as a result of this, we expect UR's 2018 full year growth to be in the 40% to 45% range, down from our earlier estimate of 50%. We have not seen any similar slowdown in any of our Semiconductor or electronic test businesses in China.

我們的工業自動化業務在本季持續良好成長。Universal Robots 第三季營收較去年同期成長 46%，今年前 9 個月成長 42%。不過我也要指出，由於貿易與關稅爭端導致中國製造商面臨經濟不確定性，UR 在中國的銷售成長已放緩。若排除中國，UR 第三季銷售較 2017 年第三季成長 54%。主要基於此，我們預期 UR 2018 年全年成長將落在 40% 至 45% 區間，低於我們先前估計的 50%。我們在中國的任何半導體或電子測試業務中，尚未看到類似的放緩。

A key part of UR's long-term success is predicated on the expanding ecosystem of UR+ partners creating the broadest range of plug-and-play peripherals in the industry. We now have over 100 certified products in our UR+ program and a rich pipeline of products undergoing certification and development. UR+ enables innovation at the edge. Our partners' hardware and software add-ons and creativity take UR's cobots into applications much faster and more efficiently than we could do on our own. An interesting example of a recently certified UR+ application is an easy-to-train 2D vision application developed by Cognex and demonstrated at the recent IMTS trade show. This solution integrates natively into the UR software via our open API and guides users through 2 of the main challenges in vision-guided robotics, establishing the coordinated communication between the 2 systems and performing hand-to-eye coordination. This solution is applicable to a wide range of 2D pick-and-place tasks. Another recently certified UR+ solution is Boston-based Soft Robotics development of a gripper aimed at handling delicate and easily damaged objects. Tight integration with our UR software delivers human hand dexterity, adjusting grip force in real time, allowing the easy grasping of products from small bottles to soft sponges.

UR 長期成功的一個關鍵，建立在 UR+ 夥伴生態系的擴張之上；UR+ 夥伴打造出業界最廣泛的即插即用周邊設備。我們的 UR+ 計畫目前已有超過 100 項通過認證的產品，並且有豐富的產品管線正在進行認證與開發。UR+ 讓邊緣端的創新成為可能。合作夥伴的硬體與軟體外掛以及創意，能讓 UR 協作機器人更快速、更有效率地導入各種應用，速度與效率都超過我們單靠自身所能達成。近期通過 UR+ 認證的一個有趣案例，是 Cognex 開發、並在最近 IMTS 展會上展示的一套易於訓練的 2D 視覺應用。此解決方案透過我們的開放式 API 原生整合至 UR 軟體，並引導使用者克服視覺導引機器人兩項主要挑戰：建立兩套系統間的協同通訊，以及進行手眼協調（hand-to-eye coordination）。此解決方案適用於各式各樣的 2D 取放（pick-and-place）任務。另一個近期通過 UR+ 認證的解決方案，是波士頓 Soft Robotics 所開發的夾爪，目標是處理脆弱且容易受損的物品。與我們 UR 軟體的緊密整合可提供如人手般的靈巧度，能即時調整夾持力，使其可輕鬆抓取從小瓶到柔軟海綿等各類產品。

MiR's revenues grew nearly -- grew to nearly $7 million in the quarter, and we're on track for 100% to 150% year-over-year growth at MiR on a pro forma basis. The recently introduced 500-kilogram payload, MiR500, begins shipping in Q4, opening new markets for our mobile collaborative platform.

MiR 的營收在本季成長至接近 700 萬美元；以備考（pro forma）基礎計算，我們正朝 MiR 年增 100% 至 150% 的目標邁進。近期推出、載重 500 公斤的 MiR500 將於第四季開始出貨，為我們的行動協作平台開啟新的市場。

In Wireless Test, LitePoint is seeing very early signs of sales growth tied to the next-generation wireless standards. Sales of $34 million were up 11% from a year-ago quarter, and through 9 months are up 10%. System Test, with sales of $50 million in the quarter and $162 million through 9 months, will deliver high single-digit revenue growth for the full year, its second consecutive year of growth, with strong above-model earnings. We expect to see similar market conditions in 2019 as seen at this year.

在無線測試方面，LitePoint 已看到與下一代無線標準相關的銷售成長非常早期的跡象。本季銷售額 3,400 萬美元，較去年同期成長 11%；今年前 9 個月累計成長 10%。系統測試（System Test）方面，本季銷售額 5,000 萬美元、今年前 9 個月累計 1.62 億美元；全年將實現高個位數的營收成長，為連續第二年成長，且獲利顯著優於模型預期。我們預期 2019 年的市場狀況將與今年所見相近。

Shifting to our midterm view. We expect the Industrial Automation segment, UR, MiR and Energid to collectively grow at 50% to 55% through 2021, in line with our earnings model. The China market remains a bit of a wildcard, where the economic uncertainty of tariffs and trade disputes could temporarily weigh down demand. However, a pause in China should eventually be met with growth in other regions, as manufacturing realignment likely mitigates the impact of tariffs. As noted in earlier calls, we expect cobot automation adoption to move in wave, as new technologies enable broader capabilities, followed by digestion, before the next wave hits. So as we've seen this year, we expect quarterly variation around the long-term trend line of growth.

接著談我們的中期觀點。我們預期工業自動化事業部門（Industrial Automation）、UR、MiR 與 Energid 合計在 2021 年前將以 50% 至 55% 的速度成長，與我們的獲利模型一致。中國市場仍帶有一些不確定性，關稅與貿易爭端所造成的經濟不確定，可能在短期內壓抑需求。然而，中國若出現暫歇，最終應會由其他地區的成長所彌補，因為製造業的重新布局很可能會緩解關稅的影響。如同我們在先前電話會議中提到的，我們預期協作機器人（cobot）自動化的採用將呈波浪式推進：新技術帶來更廣泛的能力，之後進入消化期，接著下一波再到來。因此，如同我們今年所見，我們預期季度表現會圍繞長期成長趨勢線出現波動。

Shifting to the Semiconductor Test outlook. Our midterm view is grounded by several global trends. First, semiconductors will continue to be the engine of progress across the global economy, whether it be focus on transportation, entertainment, health care, scientific exploration, e-commerce or education, all are dependent on the power of silicon. We expect the combination of traditional lithography-based scaling to continue, albeit at a slower rate than in the past, while scaling through advanced packaging will grow. Together, these trends will provide the economics to drive semiconductor demand, as chips provide the least expensive way to deliver meaningful product differentiation and drive consumer upgrade cycles. New features and new capabilities increase chip complexity and chip test times grow, which drives our test market.

接著談半導體測試（Semiconductor Test）的展望。我們的中期觀點建立在數項全球趨勢之上。首先，半導體將持續成為全球經濟進步的引擎；無論是交通運輸、娛樂、醫療照護、科學探索、電子商務或教育，都仰賴矽的力量。我們預期傳統以微影（lithography）為基礎的尺度微縮仍將持續，但速度將較過去放緩；同時，透過先進封裝（advanced packaging）實現的尺度微縮將成長。綜合而言，這些趨勢將提供推動半導體需求的經濟性，因為晶片是以最低成本提供有意義產品差異化、並帶動消費者換機循環的方式。新功能與新能力提高晶片複雜度、晶片測試時間也隨之增加，進而帶動我們的測試市場。

At the market level, 5G cellular, AI-powered smart devices, autonomous vehicles and data center demands are driving a growing number of technology innovations across the SOC and memory space. These create disruptive technology inflection points, such as high-speed serial data links and millimeter wave wireless, which often obsolete current-generation testers. This drives additional replacement demand on top of normal complexity growth. These inflection points also lead to competitive evaluations, providing us the opportunity to expand our Semiconductor Test market share with a strong value proposition. This is true for both our LitePoint and Semi Test businesses.

在市場層面，5G 行動通訊、AI 驅動的智慧裝置、自動駕駛車與資料中心需求，正推動 SoC 與記憶體領域出現愈來愈多的技術創新。這些創新帶來顛覆性的技術拐點，例如高速序列資料連結與毫米波無線，往往會使現有世代的測試機台過時。這在正常的複雜度成長之外，進一步帶來額外的汰換需求。這些拐點也會引發競爭性評估，讓我們有機會憑藉強而有力的價值主張，擴大我們在半導體測試市場的市占率。這一點同樣適用於我們的 LitePoint 與 Semi Test 兩項業務。

So longer term, we are confident that the growth drivers in Semiconductor Test are firmly in place. While we expect annual market volatility will remain and be hard to predict, the long term 2% to 4% growth rate in our 2021 earnings model looks solid. In fact, using the average ATE market size from 2014-'15, the market is ahead of this trend, averaging nearly 10% growth through 2018. Part of this is due to the extraordinary growth in the memory test market over the past 2 years to nearly $1 billion. Over the midterm, we are expecting that market to average closer to $750 million.

因此從更長期來看，我們有信心半導體測試的成長動能已穩固到位。雖然我們預期年度市場波動仍將存在且難以預測，但我們 2021 年獲利模型中所假設的長期 2% 至 4% 成長率看起來相當扎實。事實上，以 2014-’15 年 ATE 市場規模的平均值來看，市場表現已領先此一趨勢，2018 年前的平均成長接近 10%。其中一部分原因，是過去兩年記憶體測試市場出現非同尋常的成長，規模接近 10 億美元。在中期，我們預期該市場的平均規模將更接近 7.5 億美元。

Key determinants of next year's market include: the introduction of new WiFi standards, such as 802.11ax; continued strength in vehicle electrification and intelligence; the ramp rate of LPDDR5; complexity growth in mobile silicon; the expansion rates of local Chinese memory suppliers and the overall NAND and DRAM bit growth rates. We do not expect 5G to have a major impact on production test until 2020 and beyond. We will have a better view of the 2019 Semi Test market in Q1.

決定明年市場走向的關鍵因素包括：新 WiFi 標準（如 802.11ax）的導入；車輛電動化與智慧化的持續強勁；LPDDR5 的放量速度；行動裝置晶片的複雜度成長；中國本土記憶體供應商的擴張速度；以及 NAND 與 DRAM 的整體位元（bit）成長率。我們不預期 5G 會在 2020 年及之後之前，對量產測試（production test）產生重大影響。我們將在第一季對 2019 年 Semi Test 市場有更清楚的看法。

Shifting to our capital allocation plans. We'll continue to invest our cash to maximize investor returns using a balance of dividends, share repurchases and M&A. We'll complete 2018 $750 million share repurchase program this quarter, which will leave us with $750 million in the current authorization. We'll update you on our 2019 plan in our January call.

接著談我們的資本配置計畫。我們將持續運用現金，在股利、庫藏股回購與併購（M&A）之間取得平衡，以最大化投資人報酬。我們將在本季完成 2018 年 7.5 億美元的股票回購計畫，完成後，現行授權額度中仍將剩餘 7.5 億美元。我們會在一月的電話會議中更新 2019 年計畫。

In the M&A space, we look at opportunities in the test space, but our main focus is on enabling the continued high growth of our Industrial Automation segment, where we have an active funnel with a good mix of hardware and software products.

在併購方面，我們會評估測試領域的機會，但主要重點放在支持工業自動化事業部門持續高速成長；我們目前有一個活躍的案源管道（funnel），硬體與軟體產品的組合相當均衡。

With that, I'll turn it over to Greg.

接下來，我把時間交給 Greg。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a quick summary of the key highlights of 2018 as the finish line is nearing. I'll also cover a few of the common investor questions we are fielding along with the third quarter results and fourth quarter guidance.

謝謝你，Mark，各位早安。隨著 2018 年接近終點，我先快速總結幾項關鍵亮點。我也會結合第三季結果與第四季指引，回應我們近期常被投資人詢問的幾個問題。

Starting with the financial highlights. Despite the first half mobility speed bump, our 2018 top line should reach about $2.1 billion again this year, driven by Industrial Automation growth, partially offsetting the Semi Test decline. Gross margin should run at 57% again, above our prior 54% to 56% historical average. Moving further down the P&L, our non-GAAP operating profit rate is trending to 24% with strategically higher Industrial Automation investments. Non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint of our guidance will be $2.24, down from $2.34 last year. On capital deployment, we're pleased to have acquired both MiR, the leader in autonomous mobile robots; and Energid, the leader in robotic motion control software, this year. Both MiR and Energid are benefiting from a host of synergies inside of Teradyne, while maintaining their nimbleness and speed of execution.

先從財務亮點談起。儘管上半年行動相關業務出現短暫的速度放緩（speed bump），我們 2018 年營收仍可望再次達到約 21 億美元，主要由工業自動化成長帶動，部分抵銷半導體測試下滑的影響。毛利率預期將再次維持在 57%，高於我們先前 54% 至 56% 的歷史平均。再往損益表（P&L）下方看，隨著我們策略性提高對工業自動化的投資，非 GAAP 營業利益率正朝 24% 走勢。以指引中值計算，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）將為 2.24 美元，低於去年的 2.34 美元。在資本運用方面，我們很高興今年完成收購兩家公司：自主移動機器人領導者 MiR，以及機器人運動控制軟體領導者 Energid。MiR 與 Energid 在 Teradyne 內部正受益於多項綜效，同時仍維持其靈活性與執行速度。

As Mark noted, we're on track to buy back $750 million of our stock in 2018. And since the start of 2015, we have bought back $1.2 billion at an average price of $28.68.

如 Mark 所提到的，我們正按計畫在 2018 年回購 7.5 億美元的自家股票。自 2015 年初以來，我們已回購 12 億美元，平均回購價格為 28.68 美元。

To offer some longer-term perspective on our strategy, we led the automation of testing integrated circuits decades ago. Now many years later, our semiconductor testers are turning out billions of devices weekly, and we're the leader in the ATE industry and financial performance. Fast forward to the present, and we've set our sights on leading the automation of repetitive task with Universal Robots and MiR cobots. These safe and easy-to-train cobots allow factory and service workers to avoid those highly repetitive and tedious tasks that are poorly suited for humans. It was just 3 years ago that we acquired Universal Robots, which added only $42 million to our 2015 sales. Now in 2018, our Industrial Automation segment, including Universal Robots, MiR and Energid is on track to achieve over $0.25 billion in sales. We also expect that by 2021, we'll be near $1 billion in Industrial Automation sales. These next-generation automation businesses have favorable long-term secular trends, such as the worldwide shortage of workers, particularly for robotic-type tasks; cost and inflation worries; increasing quality requirements and growing global industrial competition.

為了提供一些更長期的策略視角，我們在數十年前就引領了積體電路測試的自動化。多年後的今天，我們的半導體測試機每週可產出數十億顆裝置，我們也是 ATE 產業與財務表現的領導者。把時間拉回現在，我們已將目標鎖定在透過 Universal Robots 與 MiR 協作機器人，引領重複性工作的自動化。這些安全且易於訓練的協作機器人，讓工廠與服務業員工得以避開高度重複、繁瑣且不適合人類執行的工作。就在 3 年前，我們收購 Universal Robots，該公司在 2015 年僅為我們增加 4,200 萬美元的銷售額。而在 2018 年，我們的工業自動化事業部門（包含 Universal Robots、MiR 與 Energid）可望達成超過 2.5 億美元的銷售額。我們也預期到 2021 年，工業自動化銷售額將接近 10 億美元。這些新世代自動化業務具備有利的長期結構性趨勢（secular trends），例如全球勞工短缺（尤其是機器人類型的工作）、對成本與通膨的擔憂、品質要求提升，以及全球工業競爭加劇。

Now shifting to the key 2018 product highlights. Universal Robots released its next-generation e-Series product line. The e-Series advances the standard for ease-of-use and safety, while adding a built-in sense of touch and more computing power for our hundreds of third-party developers. The e-Series began shipments mid-quarter, and we'll continue to offer both the original and e-Series, targeting different market price points. MiR is making a big splash, too, with the recently introduced MiR500. This heavier payload autonomous mobile robot is well-suited for pallet-sized movements, and is expected to ship in volume this quarter. We've also grown the UR+ certified third-party offerings from less than 60 at the end of last year to 112 at the end of the third quarter. This expanding collection of targeted, proven solutions is a key driver of UR's ongoing growth.

接著談 2018 年幾項重要的產品亮點。Universal Robots 發表了新一代 e-Series 產品線。e-Series 在易用性與安全性方面提升了標準，同時加入內建觸覺感測（sense of touch），並為我們數百位第三方開發者提供更強的運算能力。e-Series 已於本季中開始出貨，我們也將持續同時提供原始系列與 e-Series，以對應不同市場價位帶。MiR 近期推出的 MiR500 也引起很大迴響。這款可承載更重負載的自主移動機器人非常適合棧板尺寸的搬運，並預期本季將開始大量出貨。我們也將 UR+ 認證的第三方產品供應從去年底不到 60 項，提升至第三季末的 112 項。這個持續擴大的、具針對性且經驗證的解決方案組合，是推動 UR 持續成長的關鍵動能。

At a recent trade show, we also showcased Energid's Actin path planning software on our UR cobot, demonstrating the potential to greatly expand UR's addressable market for 3D pick-and-place task. Moving to Semi Test. We've nearly tripled our addressable memory test served market with our new Magnum wafer level test product that chipped in volume in the third quarter. This product is also in multiple broader evaluations and is well suited to the higher-speed protocol interfaces required in premium smartphones. In SOC test, as you've seen, we're well positioned in the growing automotive and industrial end markets, but we're also aggressively driving our R&D efforts to attack the technology inflection points that Mark noted. For example, we've successfully intercepted the market with ATE solutions for 5G millimeter wave devices and for serial data links up to 60 gigabits per second, including PAM4 for chips being developed for the data center and communications networking. So all to all, 2018 has been a very strong year expanding our product solutions and addressable markets.

在最近的一場貿易展上，我們也在 UR 協作機器人上展示了 Energid 的 Actin 路徑規劃軟體，展現其有望大幅擴大 UR 在 3D 取放（pick-and-place）任務上的可服務市場潛力。接著談半導體測試（Semi Test）。隨著我們新的 Magnum 晶圓級測試產品於第三季開始量產出貨，我們的可服務記憶體測試市場幾乎擴大了三倍。該產品也正在進行多項更廣泛的評估，並非常適合高階智慧型手機所需的更高速協定介面。在 SOC 測試方面，如各位所見，我們在成長中的車用與工業終端市場具備良好布局，同時也正積極推動研發，以攻克 Mark 所提到的技術拐點。例如，我們已成功以 ATE 解決方案切入 5G 毫米波元件市場，以及最高達每秒 60Gb 的序列資料連結（包含 PAM4），用於正在為資料中心與通訊網路開發的晶片。總而言之，2018 年是我們在擴展產品解決方案與可服務市場方面非常強勁的一年。

Now let me quickly turn to some of the most frequently asked questions, including, do we see a memory decline or broader slowdown? How are trade uncertainties and tariffs likely to affect us? How can we stay in the lead at Universal Robots? And finally, do we expect mobility to turn back on next year?

現在我快速回應一些最常被問到的問題，包括：我們是否看到記憶體下滑或更廣泛的景氣放緩？貿易不確定性與關稅可能如何影響我們？我們如何在 Universal Robots 保持領先？最後，我們是否預期明年行動裝置需求會回溫？

So starting with memory test, we're not seeing an immediate slowdown. This may, in part, be a result of posting our initial revenues for our new wafer level tester in the third quarter, but it may also reflect the more muted test buying over the last few years compared with front-end investments. With that said, recall we noted in our July call that the memory test market at about $950 million this year is about $200 million above our estimated normalized level. So it could certainly fall back to normalized levels next year or later.

先從記憶體測試談起，我們目前沒有看到立即的放緩。這部分可能是因為我們在第三季開始認列新晶圓級測試機的初期營收，但也可能反映過去幾年相較於前段製程投資，測試端的採購較為溫和。不過請回想我們在 7 月電話會議中提到，今年約 9.5 億美元的記憶體測試市場規模，比我們估計的常態化水準高出約 2 億美元。因此，明年或更晚回落至常態化水準是完全有可能的。

Moving to trade uncertainty and tariffs. With the exception of UR's China business, where some business has frozen up a bit, the impact to date on the overall business has been manageable. Recall the overall majority of our outsourced manufacturing engine shipment destinations reside outside of the U.S. It's too early for us to gauge how trade uncertainty and tariffs and other products might affect end demand that, hopefully, ripples back to us. As to staying ahead at Universal Robots, we're building ever-strong and competitive modes through product development investments to extend our ease-of-use advantage. This lowers the highest obstacles to automation, namely our customer setup costs and their need for otherwise skilled automation experts; cultivating and supporting a vast array of third-party developers, who invest their R&D dollars to create scores of solutions for a wide range of market verticals, effectively extending UR's addressable markets; partnering and fully supporting our channel partners with technical support and business case clarity, so that they can be more successful in deploying our cobots; and nonorganic chess moves, such as acquiring Energid, to extend our automation capabilities and expand UR's addressable market. Most of the above moves apply to MiR as well with the addition of a greater emphasis on supporting large accounts that often start with a fleet of robots rather than UR's 1 or 2. We keep a very keen eye on the competition and are pursuing growth rather than running our Industrial Automation businesses to maximize short-term profitability. Nonetheless, given the strong revenue growth and improved gross margins, we expect 2018's IA segment profitability to be in the mid-teens.

接著談貿易不確定性與關稅。除了 UR 的中國業務（部分業務略有凍結）之外，截至目前對整體業務的影響仍屬可控。請記得，我們外包製造引擎的出貨目的地絕大多數位於美國以外。我們目前仍太早，無法判斷貿易不確定性與關稅及其他產品將如何影響終端需求，並希望該影響不會回傳到我們。至於如何在 Universal Robots 保持領先，我們正透過產品開發投資建立更強且具競爭力的護城河，以延伸我們在易用性上的優勢。這能降低自動化的最大障礙，也就是客戶的導入/設定成本，以及其對高技能自動化專家的需求；培育並支援龐大的第三方開發者生態，讓他們投入研發資金，為多元市場垂直領域打造大量解決方案，等同有效擴大 UR 的可服務市場；與通路夥伴合作並提供完整支援（技術支援與商業案例清晰度），使其能更成功地部署我們的協作機器人；以及採取非有機的策略性布局，例如收購 Energid，以延伸我們的自動化能力並擴大 UR 的可服務市場。上述多數作法同樣適用於 MiR，另外我們也更著重於支援大型客戶；這些客戶往往一開始就部署一整隊機器人，而非像 UR 常見的 1 或 2 台。我們密切關注競爭態勢，並追求成長，而不是以最大化短期獲利來經營我們的工業自動化業務。儘管如此，鑑於營收強勁成長與毛利率改善，我們預期 2018 年 IA（工業自動化）部門的獲利率將落在 10% 中段（mid-teens）。

Lastly to SOC's mobility demand next year, we don't know yet if it will resume or if we could have another pause year. But as Mark noted, the long-term trends in SOC test are favorable.

最後談 SOC 明年的行動裝置需求，我們目前還不確定是否會恢復，或是否可能再出現一年暫停。但如 Mark 所提到，SOC 測試的長期趨勢是有利的。

Shifting to our System Test group. We're on track to grow 2018 sales 9% to about $210 million, with growth in all 3 businesses and above-model bottom line performance. In Wireless Test, LitePoint is expected to grow sales above 7% compared to last year to about $120 million with model profitability. We are poised for the anticipated 802.11ax by next year, as we expect this new WiFi scanner will be adopted for flagship smartphones in 2019. Further out, a larger multiyear wave is nearing with 5G millimeter wave expected to move from labs to volume production in 2020 or 2021.

接著談我們的系統測試（System Test）事業群。我們預計 2018 年銷售額將成長 9% 至約 2.1 億美元，三項業務皆成長，且獲利表現優於模型預期。在無線測試方面，預期 LitePoint 的銷售額將較去年成長超過 7% 至約 1.2 億美元，並達到模型所示的獲利水準。我們已為預期明年到來的 802.11ax 做好準備，因為我們預期這款新的 WiFi 掃描器將於 2019 年被旗艦智慧型手機採用。更長期來看，一波更大的多年期浪潮正在逼近，預期 5G 毫米波將於 2020 或 2021 年從實驗室走向量產。

Our cash and marketable securities totaled $1.3 billion, and we bought back $201 million of our stock at an average price of $40.25 in the third quarter.

我們的現金與有價證券合計為 13 億美元，且在第三季以平均每股 40.25 美元回購了 2.01 億美元的股票。

Moving to the details of the third quarter. Our sales were $567 million. Gross margins were 59%, benefiting from strong product mix. The non-GAAP operating profit rate was 28%, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.71. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were $177 million, up $2 million from the second quarter, due to higher variable compensation accruals on higher profits. We've included a schedule on OpEx, where you can see that we continue to keep test fixed OpEx flat. And we are growing our Industrial Automation OpEx aggressively to ensure we capture the market growth and stay ahead.

接著說明第三季的細節。我們的銷售額為 5.67 億美元。毛利率為 59%，受惠於強勁的產品組合。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.71 美元。各位會看到我們的非 GAAP 營業費用為 1.77 億美元，較第二季增加 200 萬美元，主要因獲利提高而使變動薪酬提列增加。我們已在營業費用（OpEx）中附上明細表，您可看到我們持續將測試業務的固定 OpEx 維持持平。同時，我們正積極增加工業自動化的 OpEx，以確保掌握市場成長並保持領先。

We've also included slides on segment sales. I'll note that we've shown Industrial Automation in total and broken out both on a GAAP basis and pro forma basis. We also expect a strong fourth quarter, both at Universal Robots, with a typical year-end surge; and at MiR, with the MiR500 shipping in volume. We have $61 million accrued for the Universal Robots and MiR earnouts. The Universal Robot's earnout ends this year, and the MiR earnout extends through 2020.

我們也附上了各事業部門銷售額的投影片。我想指出，我們已將工業自動化以合計方式呈現，並同時以 GAAP 基礎與擬制（pro forma）基礎分別揭露。我們也預期第四季將表現強勁：Universal Robots 受惠於典型的年底衝刺；MiR 則因 MiR500 開始量產出貨。我們已為 Universal Robots 與 MiR 的或有對價（earnouts）提列 6,100 萬美元。Universal Robots 的 earnout 將於今年結束，而 MiR 的 earnout 將延續至 2020 年。

Sales for the fourth quarter are expected to be between $480 million and $510 million, and the non-GAAP EPS range is $0.46 to $0.54 on 183 million diluted shares. Q4 guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles.

第四季銷售額預期介於 4.8 億至 5.1 億美元之間；以 1.83 億股稀釋後股數計算，非 GAAP EPS 區間為 0.46 至 0.54 美元。第四季財測不包含收購無形資產的攤銷。

The fourth quarter gross margin should run about 57%, down from a very strong third quarter due to product mix. And total OpEx should run from 35% to 37%. The operating profit rate at the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance is about 22%. Shifting to taxes. Our full year tax rate is expected to be about 16%, down 50 basis points from our July estimate.

第四季毛利率預計約為 57%，因產品組合因素，將較第三季非常強勁的水準下滑。總 OpEx 預計約為營收的 35% 至 37%。以第四季財測中點計算，營業利益率約為 22%。接著談稅務。我們預期全年稅率約為 16%，較我們 7 月的估計下調 50 個基點。

As we begin to model 2019, please note that we expect our tax rate to step up to 17%; CapEx remain in our historical $90 million to $110 million range; test OpEx should remain flat; and the expected 50% plus revenue growth in Industrial Automation will drive its OpEx up successively each quarter next year from about $35 million per quarter exiting this year. We'll have more details on 2019 OpEx in January's call.

在我們開始建立 2019 年模型時，請注意：我們預期稅率將上升至 17%；資本支出（CapEx）將維持在歷史區間 9,000 萬至 1.1 億美元；測試業務的 OpEx 應維持持平；而工業自動化預期 50% 以上的營收成長，將推動其 OpEx 於明年每一季逐季上升，從今年年底約每季 3,500 萬美元的水準往上增加。我們將在 1 月的電話會議中提供更多 2019 年 OpEx 的細節。

Also related to 2019 model, as in past years, you should expect the first quarter Industrial Automation sales to be sequentially down from the fourth quarter, even though we continue to invest through increase OpEx to drive 2019 full year and long-term growth.

另外，與2019年機型相關，如同過去幾年，你應該預期第一季工業自動化銷售額將較第四季呈現季減，即使我們仍會透過增加營運費用（OpEx）持續投資，以推動2019年全年及長期成長。

So in summary, we're delivering very strong test profitability despite the decline in mobility spending this year. We're aggressively expanding our next-generation Industrial Automation portfolio and widening its competitive modes. And we're returning significant capital with our $750 million buyback and a roughly 1% dividend yield.

因此總結來說，儘管今年行動裝置支出下滑，我們仍交出非常強勁的測試獲利能力。我們正積極擴展下一代工業自動化產品組合，並擴大其競爭模式。同時，我們透過7.5億美元的庫藏股回購以及約1%的股息殖利率，回饋可觀資本給股東。

Now I'll turn the call back to Andy.

現在我把電話交回給Andy。

Thanks, Greg. Michelle, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，Greg。Michelle，我們現在想開始提問。（接線員指示）

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

（接線員指示）你們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Vivek Arya。

I think in the past, you have used the word complexity to define the growth opportunity at your largest smartphone customer. So if, let's say, all they're doing is enhancing the processor and upgrading to a different WiFi standard, does that qualify as increased complexity? Or in general, if you could give us a sense for what can drive growth in that business next year.

我記得過去你們曾用「複雜度」這個詞來定義你們最大智慧型手機客戶的成長機會。所以如果，假設他們所做的只是強化處理器並升級到不同的WiFi標準，這算是複雜度提升嗎？或者更一般地說，你能否讓我們了解，明年這項業務的成長可能由哪些因素驅動？

Sure. So there's a variety of things related to complexity in tester growth. Certainly, transistor count is one element. And transistor count, roughly, it doesn't scale proportionally. If transistors grow 50%, generally speaking, everything else being equal, test time might grow 25%. Then there's the question of yields. So if we end up moving to a new lithography node or a design that's perhaps more marginal, a 10% change in yield can translate to a 10% change in tester or test intensity or the asset base you need to test the parts. There's another factor. Even if it's a next-generation RF chip or a next-generation power management chip, there's -- separate from testing the transistors, often, there's tuning needed for the part. The tester actually tries to find the right -- the optimum operating point for the part and has to sort of hunt for it. That takes time. And as these devices get more complex or in a power management device, get more independent cores that they need to power, that can start to chew up test time. And then the last thing, I guess, I would point out is the sort of loading effect. In this -- in the mobility space, in particular, historically, there's been intense production 3 to 4 months prior to a new product launch. And then the capacity utilization of the tester fleet thereafter might drop down into the sort of 70% to 80% range from a peak of 100%. And some optimizations, I think, there occurred where the devices had a longer build-ahead cycle to sort of mitigate some of that peaking. And that's kind of suppressed it. So that's a bit of a long answer, but those are sort of the principal factors.

當然。測試機成長的「複雜度」相關因素有很多。晶體管數量當然是一個要素。而晶體管數量大致上並不會等比例縮放。如果晶體管增加50%，一般而言在其他條件相同下，測試時間可能只增加25%。接著是良率的問題。因此如果我們轉移到新的微影節點，或是某種可能更接近臨界的設計，良率變動10%就可能轉換為測試機數量、測試強度，或你需要用來測試這些晶片的資產基礎的10%變動。還有另一個因素。即使是下一代RF晶片或下一代電源管理晶片，除了測試晶體管之外，往往還需要對元件進行調校。測試機實際上會嘗試找出該元件的最佳運作點，並且必須某種程度上去「搜尋」它。這需要時間。而當這些裝置變得更複雜，或在電源管理裝置中需要供電的獨立核心變多時，就會開始大量消耗測試時間。最後一點我想指出的是所謂的「載入效應」。在行動裝置領域尤其如此，歷史上在新產品發表前3到4個月會有非常密集的生產。之後測試機群的產能利用率可能會從高峰的100%下降到約70%到80%的區間。我認為曾做過一些最佳化，讓裝置有更長的提前備貨週期，以在某種程度上緩解這種尖峰。而這也算是抑制了它。所以這回答有點長，但以上大致就是主要因素。

Okay. And then on the gross margin side, you have been running above trend. So you think it's time to revise the target model or you think you'll get back to trend?

了解。另外在毛利率方面，你們一直維持在趨勢之上。所以你認為是時候修訂目標模型了，還是你覺得會回到趨勢水準？

Yes. We have been running above the model for a period of time. There's a number of puts and takes with the model. Some things we're ahead. Some things we're not ahead. So we constantly look at it, and we'll make changes if it's significant. I would expect we would likely stay at this higher range. We certainly could drop back a point or so if we have large buying from a concentrated customer. But we have done a lot of good work on material, particularly in Universal Robots, as well as our System Test group. So these are -- should be margins that we can hold, give or take, maybe it leaks back a point here and there.

是的。我們有一段時間的表現確實高於模型。模型中有不少此消彼長的因素。有些項目我們做得比預期好。有些則沒有領先。因此我們會持續檢視，若影響顯著就會調整。我預期我們大概率會維持在這個較高的區間。如果某個高度集中客戶出現大量採購，我們當然可能會回落一個百分點左右。但我們在材料成本方面做了很多扎實的工作，特別是在Universal Robots，以及我們的系統測試（System Test）團隊。因此這些應該是我們能夠維持的毛利率水準；或許偶爾會在某些時點回漏一個百分點上下。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Eastman with Baird.

下一個問題來自Baird的Richard Eastman。

Yes. Can we just kind of speak to UR for a minute or so? Could you just refresh us on the exposure UR has in China, and also speak to the investments maybe in the quarter to UR and how that, again, plays out? I think, Greg, you tried to address it. But as how that plays out exiting the year and into on next year, would you do anything on the investment side if China does continue to slow down for UR?

是的。我們能否花一兩分鐘談談UR？你能否更新一下UR在中國的曝險程度，並談談本季對UR的投資，以及這些投資如何再次反映出來？我想Greg你有試著回應。但就今年年底到明年，若中國對UR持續放緩，你們在投資面會做任何調整嗎？

Well, I'll answer a part of that. The China portion of UR's business is somewhere -- it's roughly in the sort of 15% range. And that can move a little bit quarter-by-quarter, but that's a rough number. And the growth rate in China through 2017 was ahead of other large regions like North America and Europe. And this year, it's been lagging. And in particular, in the third quarter, we saw sort of a plateauing there. So you can probably do the math from that, but 15% of the total. And it's -- again, what I -- and what I said in my script is if we take out China in the third quarter, we're at about a 54% growth rate in all the other regions. On the OpEx, I'll let Greg answer.

好，我先回答其中一部分。UR業務中來自中國的占比大約在——大概是15%左右。這個比例每季可能會有些微變動，但大致如此。而中國在2017年前的成長率高於北美與歐洲等其他主要區域。但今年則相對落後。尤其在第三季，我們看到那邊有點趨於持平。所以你大概可以從這些數字推算，但總體約15%。而且——再次重申我在講稿裡說的，如果把第三季的中國排除，我們在其他所有區域的成長率約為54%。至於營運費用（OpEx），我讓Greg來回答。

As to the investment level, in the short term, we wouldn't do anything different. The investments, they tend to be lower-cost investments per person in China. And we do believe, long term, it will be a very high growth market. It's just in this period where capital equipment, even though it's a very low cost with a faster return, it seems as though there's just greater uncertainty, and there's a bit of a pause. So we need to see how that plays out. But I would not advocate cutting back spending now because I think, long term, this is going to be a significant part of Universal Robots' business.

就投資水準而言，短期內我們不會做任何不同的調整。在中國的投資，通常以每人計算屬於較低成本的投資。而我們確實相信，長期來看那會是一個高成長市場。只是目前這段期間，資本設備雖然成本很低、回收期也更快，但似乎不確定性更高，因此出現一些暫停。所以我們需要觀察後續發展。但我不主張現在就縮減支出，因為我認為長期而言，這將會是Universal Robots業務的重要組成部分。

And then Q3 investments and maybe what that looks like into the next year?

那第三季的投資，以及明年看起來會如何呢？

Well, when you think about Universal Robot, let me go up a level of those tractions. Let's say our gross margin is about 60%. And then we're running the business for growth, but we end up with mid-teens or upper-teens profitability this year, last year. So that delta, 42% is really OpEx. So I think you're going to see continued meaningful OpEx investments that we're going to make now. When you get to 2020 and 2021, you're not going to see that same growth of OpEx because we're going to have built out our sales organization. We're going to have the infrastructure finely tuned. There's still many channel partners who need more support. There's large accounts we can pursue. There's OEM channels. So there's still a lot we're getting to. But I would say, after next year, the OpEx growth will be much more modest than what we see for 2019.

嗯，談到Universal Robot時，讓我把層級拉高一點來看這些動能。假設我們的毛利率大約是60%。然後我們以成長為目標來經營這項業務，但今年與去年最終的獲利率落在十幾個百分點的中段到高段。所以這個差額——42%——基本上就是營運費用（OpEx）。因此我認為你會看到我們現在仍會持續進行具意義的OpEx投資。到了2020與2021年，你不會看到OpEx以同樣速度成長，因為我們將已建立完成銷售組織。我們會把基礎設施調校到位。仍有許多通路夥伴需要更多支援。我們也能追求大型客戶。還有OEM通路。所以我們仍有很多工作要做。但我會說，從明年之後開始，OpEx的成長將會比2019年所見的成長幅度溫和得多。

Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Atif Malik。

Mark, a couple of analog companies, TI and Micro are seeing industrial auto semiconductor weakness in the December quarter. I'm just curious why you're not seeing it? If it's baked into your guidance? I understand you guys are seeing some weakness on the UR side. And then I have a follow-up.

Mark，幾家類比公司，例如 TI 和 Micro，在 12 月季度看到工業與車用半導體走弱。我只是好奇為什麼你們沒有看到？這是否已經反映在你們的指引之中？我理解你們在 UR 端確實看到一些疲弱。然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. Frankly, our analog demand has been quite bullish and accelerated in the third quarter, in fact. So part of that is due to, what I would say is, back to this issue of test intensity. So some of the -- even though the -- our customer sales may not be growing as fast, the new devices going into automobiles are incrementally complex and need more test time. So there's always a bit of an ebb and flow of how much test is needed per, let's say, ASP of an analog chip or any chip. So we're seeing a little bit more test intensity. Automotive, if you just look at Automotive, the microcontroller portion of Automotive is actually not growing in this year, but the analog content of Automotive has been growing.

是的。坦白說，我們的類比需求相當強勁，事實上在第三季還加速了。其中一部分原因，我會說，是回到測試強度這個議題。所以即使——即使我們客戶的銷售成長可能沒那麼快，但導入汽車的新裝置在複雜度上是逐步提高的，因而需要更多的測試時間。因此，每一顆（比方說）類比晶片或任何晶片的 ASP 所對應需要多少測試，總會有一些起伏變化。所以我們看到測試強度略有提升。車用方面，如果只看車用，車用中的微控制器（microcontroller）部分今年其實沒有成長，但車用的類比含量一直在成長。

Okay. And on the Industrial Automation side, you guys have talked about start-up companies as being more of a competitor to UR business than the traditional robotic companies. What does the closing of the Rethink Robotics mean for you guys, and if there's any interest in looking at their IP?

了解。那在工業自動化方面，你們談到新創公司相較於傳統機器人公司，對 UR 業務更具競爭性。Rethink Robotics 的關閉對你們意味著什麼？以及你們是否有興趣評估他們的 IP？

So Rethink has been a great example of the fact that a rising tide doesn't float all boats. It does predicate -- product differentiation matters. That's what UR has had. That being said, there's some very talented, creative people that developed product line at Rethink, and we took the opportunity to hire a large portion of that to bolster our road map plans at UR. The IP side of it, if you look at the hardware, which a lot of what the IP was and is, it was really -- that's part of the issue with the product. It wasn't a very accurate implementation of a cobot. It would have difficulty in repetitive accurate motion. And so it's really not a set of IP that we were interested in on the mechanics. We were much more interested in the talent that was at that company. But again, I will just point out that there's a lot of churn in the cobot industry. There are tens and tens of start-ups around the globe, and they come and go within a matter of months. So the opportunity for the market is becoming clearer and clearer. But in terms of successful breakouts, UR still pretty much stands alone.

Rethink 是一個很好的例子，說明水漲不一定船高。這也印證——產品差異化很重要。這正是 UR 所具備的。話雖如此，Rethink 有一些非常有才華、富創意的人才開發了其產品線，我們也把握機會聘用了其中很大一部分，以強化 UR 的產品藍圖規劃。至於 IP 方面，如果你看硬體——很多 IP 過去與現在都在硬體上——那其實正是該產品問題的一部分。它並不是一個非常精準的協作機器人（cobot）實作。在重複且精準的運動上會有困難。因此在機構（mechanics）層面，這並不是我們有興趣的那一套 IP。我們更感興趣的是那家公司的人才。不過我也要指出，協作機器人產業的汰換非常頻繁。全球有數十家、數十家的新創公司，它們可能在短短幾個月內就來來去去。因此市場機會正變得愈來愈清晰。但就成功突圍而言，UR 仍幾乎是獨樹一幟。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first, I'm trying to level set both UR and overall Industrial Automation. So could you share with us what you expect in terms of December quarter from each of the 3 businesses in terms of revenues? And then as you think about the reset versus the 60% kind of previous guide for UR second half, based on that, it looks like it's roughly $20 million, $25 million that's coming out. Can you quantify how much of that is China versus other issues or headwinds?

我想，首先我試著釐清 UR 以及整體工業自動化的基準。所以你能否分享一下，你們預期 12 月季度三個業務各自的營收會是多少？另外，當你思考相較於先前對 UR 下半年約 60% 的指引所做的重設時，從結果看起來大約少了 2,000 萬到 2,500 萬美元。你能否量化其中有多少是中國因素，多少是其他問題或逆風？

I might not have all the details, C.J., but I think the way to think about UR for this year is we were thinking it could grow 50% for the year. It's going to be between 42%, 43%. It's going to be in that type of range. It looks like and we have 9 months in already. We do firmly believe that there's going to be a wave of adoption, and there's many waves we can see out in time that haven't hit yet. So -- and you could also look at last year when we grew 72%. That probably was a little bit above, I'll say, a trend line. So I just want to kind of illustrate that we'll be above or below the trend line, and it doesn't necessarily mean anything other than it's just not a smooth line. With -- MiR is shipping this new product. So they -- depending upon how many they can complete and ship, that's -- than can be a little dicey because it's a brand new product. But if they're able to ship them, we're going to be, on a pro forma basis -- not what's in Teradyne's financial, but on a pro forma basis, we could achieve the $30 million of sales, which would be huge growth from where they were last year. And Energid's immaterial, so I'll just leave that one alone. That's more of a capability that enables us to extend what UR can do.

C.J.，我可能沒有所有細節，但我認為看待 UR 今年的方式是：我們原本認為全年可能成長 50%。實際會落在 42%、43%。大概就是那樣的區間。看起來我們已經走過 9 個月了。我們仍堅信會出現一波採用潮，而且我們能在更長時間軸上看到很多波尚未到來的浪潮。你也可以回頭看去年我們成長了 72%。那可能稍微高於——我會說——趨勢線。所以我只是想說明，我們可能會高於或低於趨勢線，而這不一定代表任何事情，除了它本來就不是一條平滑的線。至於 MiR，正在出貨這個新產品。所以——取決於他們能完成並出貨多少台——這可能會有點不確定，因為這是全新產品。但如果他們能夠出貨，我們在備考（pro forma）基礎上——不是 Teradyne 財報中呈現的，而是備考基礎上——我們可能達到 3,000 萬美元的銷售額，這相較於他們去年會是巨大的成長。Energid 的影響不重大，所以我就先不談它。那更多是一種能力，讓我們能延伸 UR 可以做到的事情。

Okay. That's great. And I guess as a follow-up, as you think about the investments for this business, I believe you're running around a 25% Op margin today, and now you're guiding mid-teens for all of '19. I guess, a, why -- what were the investments? And b, should we be modeling mid-teens for every quarter? Or how do we think about that? And then I guess, lastly, you've always had a great target model with specific OpEx relative to revenues. Can you update on what the level reset is there?

了解。很好。那我追問一下，當你思考這項業務的投資時，我相信你們目前大約是 25% 的營業利益率（Op margin），而現在你們對 2019 全年的指引是中段十幾%。我想問：a，為什麼——投資內容是什麼？以及 b，我們是否應該每一季都用中段十幾%來建模？或者我們該如何看待？最後，你們一直有一個很好的目標模型，對營收而言有明確的 OpEx 水準。你能更新一下那裡的水準重設（level reset）嗎？

What's happening in Industrial Automation, C.J,, is last year, you might recall, Universal Robots by itself got to 19% operating profit. It wasn't mid-20s. It was 19%. And frankly, that was higher than what we were planning. And we didn't hire as many people as we wanted to, particularly in North America. So we have some catching up to do in North America. So 19% was, again, artificially high. If you go back a year earlier to '16, it was 15.5%. So it's kind of been mid-teens. It'll be mid-teens this year again. I think what really is going to happen with Universal Robots, or you can put the whole Industrial Automation together, is that as we build out the infrastructure and are not expecting into new territories or hiring new channel managers, then we're going to get profit drop during a sales growth, accustomed with what we see in other businesses. But because it's growing so fast, we're still catching up with our infrastructure. And the model we show longer term, we still believe that model is reasonable and achievable. It's aggressive and credible. So that's what we're targeting. We look at it once a year to see if there's any fine-tuning. But overall, I think the ranges probably are pretty good.

C.J.，工業自動化目前的情況是：去年你可能記得，Universal Robots 單獨就達到 19% 的營業利益。並不是 20% 中段。是 19%。坦白說，那比我們原先規劃的還高。而且我們沒有如我們希望的那樣招募那麼多人，特別是在北美。所以我們在北美還需要補課、追趕。因此 19% 再次地，是人為偏高。如果你回到更早一年的 2016 年，是 15.5%。所以一直大概是中段十幾%。今年也會再次是中段十幾%。我認為 Universal Robots 真正會發生的——或者你也可以把整個工業自動化放在一起看——是當我們擴建基礎設施、並且不斷進入新領域或招募新的通路經理時，我們會在銷售成長期間看到利潤下滑，這與我們在其他業務看到的情況一致。但因為成長太快，我們的基礎設施仍在追趕中。而我們長期展示的模型，我們仍相信是合理且可達成的。它很積極，但也可信。所以那就是我們的目標。我們每年會檢視一次，看看是否需要微調。但整體而言，我認為那些區間大概都相當不錯。

And your next question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Tim Arcuri。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

聽得到。

I wanted to talk about your big SOC customer and the degree to which they might come back next year. And of course, we know that all the new models are using the new AP. And that AP is the -- it's the biggest transistor jump that we've seen in a long time. So obviously, test times have gone way up. So that would normally suggest a pretty good year from them for you. But that didn't happen. So it's kind of hard to believe, I guess, that the customer just massively overbought testers this year. So it kind of begs the question that maybe there's something structural happening there. And so I guess, my question is, do you think there is something structural going on? And if so, would you guys even know about that?

我想談談你們那個大型 SOC 客戶，以及他們明年回來的可能性有多大。當然，我們知道所有新機型都在使用新的 AP。而那個 AP——它是我們很久以來看到最大的電晶體躍升。所以很明顯，測試時間大幅上升。因此，這通常意味著他們對你們而言會是相當不錯的一年。但那並沒有發生。所以我想，很難相信只是因為該客戶今年大量超買了測試機。因此這就引出一個問題：也許那裡正在發生某種結構性的變化。所以我的問題是，你認為是否有什麼結構性的事情正在發生？如果有的話，你們是否會知道？

Yes. I think, Tim, without, again, being too specific, I think that earlier in the call, I outlined sort of 4 things that can go on to sort of pull this north or south. In transistor count, if it, like I said, grows 50%, that should, everything else being equal, yes, grows the test intensity by about 25%. And in most years, that's exactly what happened. But there's other factors like yields that can swing this equation. So that would be something to consider. There's other factors like smoothing out production instead of peaking production in the summer. And there's this third factor of how much tuning is needed for the part, separate from just checking the transistors are working, but essentially making the part work better or not. Different algorithms come in and out of how to tune the part year-to-year, and that can affect it. So within that mix, there was a very -- you could call it a structural change, but there was a -- enough improvements in areas like yields and in smoothing to mitigate much of the test time.

是的。Tim，我想在不過度具體說明的前提下，我在稍早的電話會議中概述了大概 4 件可能發生、會把結果往上或往下拉的事情。就電晶體數量而言，如果像我說的成長 50%，在其他條件相同下，是的，測試強度大約會增加 25%。而在大多數年份，確實就是這樣發生的。但還有其他因素，例如良率，可能會讓這個等式出現波動。所以這會是需要考量的一點。還有其他因素，例如把生產平滑化，而不是在夏季出現生產高峰。另外第三個因素是，這個晶片需要多少調校（tuning），不只是檢查電晶體是否正常運作，而是本質上讓晶片運作得更好或不那麼好。不同的演算法每年會進出、用來如何調校晶片，這也會影響結果。所以在這些因素的組合之下，確實有一個非常——你可以稱之為結構性變化——但也就是在良率與平滑化等領域有足夠的改善，抵消了相當一部分的測試時間。

Got it. Yes. Well, it was just cut in half, so it seems like a big change just for those things. But so do you think that those factors are normalized this year, such that, okay, we have a new baseline that we can grow off of. And so we kind of grow -- the test times make us grow next year off of this baseline? Or do you think that there is sort of a reverse adjustment next year, where like some of these mix factors and yield factors that negatively impacted this year are going to help next year?

了解。是的。嗯，它被砍半了，所以看起來僅靠那些因素就有很大的變化。不過你認為這些因素今年已經正常化了嗎？也就是說，好，我們有了一個新的基準，可以在其上成長。因此明年我們就從這個基準出發，因為測試時間而帶動成長？還是你認為明年會有某種反向調整，例如今年負面影響的某些組合因素與良率因素，明年會轉而帶來幫助？

I think, right now, we don't have the test time insight at this point of the year for next year's product to know. Usually -- that's why we usually wait until Q1 to try to give a forecast there. So it'd be pure speculation. I do think some of the things that have happened this year do form a new baseline. But the one piece of data that we don't have is what's the test time going to look like on this new part.

我想就目前而言，在一年中的這個時間點，我們還沒有明年產品的測試時間洞見來判斷。通常——這也是為什麼我們通常要等到第一季才嘗試在那方面給出預測。所以現在只能是純粹推測。我確實認為今年發生的一些事情形成了一個新的基準。但我們缺少的一個資料點是：這個新零件的測試時間會長什麼樣子。

Okay. Awesome. And then, Greg, I just wanted to follow up on the prior question. So if I segment the IA business in December, is it right to think of UR as like high 70s and MiR and then Energid like in the low teens? Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。太好了。另外，Greg，我想追問一下前一個問題。所以如果我把 12 月的 IA 業務拆分來看，把 UR 視為大約 70% 後段，而 MiR 以及 Energid 大約在低十幾個百分點，這樣理解對嗎？

Well, Energid will be under $1 million, and MiR should be about $13 million. So balance is Universal Robot.

嗯，Energid 會低於 100 萬美元，而 MiR 應該大約是 1,300 萬美元。其餘的就是 Universal Robot。

Which would get you to high 70s for UR? Is that right?

那樣 UR 就會到 70% 後段？對嗎？

Well, it depends on what number you put in for UR. We're not forecasting UR for the fourth quarter. There's -- but UR could be in the 70s. That's certainly possible.

嗯，這取決於你給 UR 放多少數字。我們沒有對第四季的 UR 做預測。不過——UR 可能在 70% 區間。那當然是有可能的。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

Mark, you did a good job in your prepared comments talking about the overall memory test market perhaps being above trend. And $950 million needing to coming back to $750 million, I'm kind of curious. When you look at the overall SOC test market, I think you talked about in your prepared comments that market upsiding $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion this year. Do you believe that market is similarly above trend, and that we have to go through a period of digestion? Or do you think the complexity, to which you've been speaking to, means that this $2.5 billion, $2.6 billion is more of a trend line number for the SOC market? And I guess, what I'm really trying to get at is given some of the digestion, we're seeing with some of the analog diversified customers, do you expect that you're immune from that or just insulated from it?

Mark，你在事先準備的發言中，對整體記憶體測試市場可能高於趨勢水準談得很清楚。你提到 9.5 億美元需要回到 7.5 億美元，我有點好奇。當你看整體 SOC 測試市場時，我想你在事先準備的發言中提到，今年市場上修到 25 億到 26 億美元。你認為這個市場同樣也高於趨勢水準，並且我們必須經歷一段消化期嗎？還是你認為你一直在談的複雜度，意味著這 25 億、26 億美元更像是 SOC 市場的趨勢線數字？我真正想問的是：鑑於我們在一些類比多元化客戶那邊看到的消化，你預期你們能免疫於此，還是只是相對更有緩衝？

Yes. So on the last part, I don't think we're immune from it. And we've said in prior calls that the analog in automotive market has been running for years now much stronger than had been the case in many prior cycles. So on the analog, and specifically automotive test, I think what's driving that is really the test intensity of devices in automotive is much higher. And so I expect that will continue to buoy up the automotive business with the normal variations and such. If you step back and look at the total SOC market, and what I said is that this year, it's going to be sort of in a $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion kind of range. So essentially close to what it was in 2018 -- or '17, I mean. I do think in the SOC case, we're not abnormally hot right now. We are operating at what looks like a pretty reasonable level. So that doesn't mean we won't see these kind of swings that we've seen in the past in the market. But on a trend line basis, I wouldn't say that right now, we're above the trend line in SOC. And then on memory, just another couple of points on memory. Memory, I think, we believe, is running hot, and $750 million is more normal. But if you zoom in to next year, the -- 2 things are going on next year that could cause it to be above the trend line again. One is the facilitation of the back-end of the indigenous fabs in China has not yet occurred. I believe it will occur next year. And then the second thing is the launch of LPDDR5. And those 2 events could very well cause it to be a little bit warmer than normal next year as well.

是的。先回答最後一部分，我不認為我們能免疫。而且我們在先前的電話會議中也說過，汽車類比市場多年來一直比許多過去週期都要強得多。所以在類比、特別是汽車測試方面，我認為驅動因素其實是汽車用裝置的測試強度高得多。因此我預期這將持續支撐汽車業務，當然也會有正常的波動等等。如果你退一步看整體 SOC 市場，我說的是今年大概會在 26 億到 27 億美元的區間。所以本質上接近 2018 年——或我指的是 2017 年——的水準。我確實認為在 SOC 的情況下，我們目前並沒有異常火熱。我們運作在看起來相當合理的水準。這不代表我們不會看到過去市場曾出現的那種波動。但就趨勢線而言，我不會說目前 SOC 高於趨勢線。另外，關於記憶體再補充幾點。記憶體方面，我們認為目前是偏熱的，而 7.5 億美元比較正常。但如果你聚焦到明年，明年有——兩件事可能會讓它再次高於趨勢線。第一是中國本土晶圓廠的後段（back-end）配套/導入尚未發生。我相信明年會發生。第二是 LPDDR5 的推出。而這兩個事件很可能也會讓明年比正常情況稍微更熱一些。

That's helpful. And then maybe as my follow-up just on the 5G front. Understanding it's not really a driver until 2020 and beyond, but you did see some nascent growth in LitePoint this quarter. I'm just kind of curious if you can help us size the opportunity for you as the world migrates to 5G, both in kind of the Wireless Test business and also in just the core SOC test business.

這很有幫助。接著我想追問一下 5G 方面。我了解在 2020 年及之後它才會真正成為驅動因素，但你們這一季確實在 LitePoint 看到一些初步成長。我有點好奇，你能否幫我們量化一下，隨著全球遷移到 5G，你們在無線測試業務以及核心 SoC 測試業務上的機會有多大？

Well, when you think about 5G -- let me do Semi Test first. Because 5G and Semi Test, it's not only a question of RF testing of these millimeter wave devices. It's also a question of all the back-end processing and data pipes to move that much data around in the infrastructure or in handsets or in consumer devices. So it's a multiplicative effect in Semi Test that extends -- obviously, RF is going to need a whole generation of new RF millimeter wave test equipment. None of the existing hardware out there can test millimeter wave. So that, in and of itself is probably -- that will run $100 million -- a couple $100 million TAM for 4 or 5 years starting maybe around 2021, additional TAM. Then on top of that, you're going to find all of the communications and processing devices behind that, that's moving the data around will also go up dramatically in complexity. So we think, again this is 2021 and beyond, but there's probably, in Semi Test, a good $300 million, $400 million bump due to 5G and its associated impact. Flipping over to LitePoint for a minute. Now we're talking about testing essentially handsets, very high volume or access points, high-volume, RF-only-type testing. And I think there we're seeing similar timing. 2021 is when production really starts to move. And -- but the market delta there or the market will probably grow an additional $100 million to $150 million a year for 5 or 6 years.

嗯，談到 5G——我先從半導體測試（Semi Test）說起。因為 5G 與半導體測試，不只是這些毫米波裝置的 RF 測試問題。也牽涉到所有後端處理與資料管道，讓那麼大量的資料能在基礎設施、手機或消費性裝置中流動。因此在半導體測試上會有乘數效應——顯然，RF 會需要一整代新的 RF 毫米波測試設備。目前市面上既有的硬體都無法測毫米波。所以光是這一項本身，可能就會帶來約 1 億美元——到 2、3 億美元的 TAM，可能從 2021 年左右開始、持續 4 到 5 年的額外 TAM。此外，你還會看到其背後所有通訊與處理裝置，為了搬移資料，其複雜度也會大幅提升。所以我們認為，同樣是 2021 年及之後，在半導體測試方面，因 5G 及其相關影響，可能會帶來約 3 億到 4 億美元的增量。再切到 LitePoint 談一下。這裡主要是在測試手機（本質上是非常高出貨量）或基地台／存取點等高出貨量、偏 RF-only 類型的測試。我認為那邊我們看到的時程也差不多。2021 年是量產真正開始移動的時間點。而——但那邊的市場增量，或市場規模，可能會在 5 到 6 年內，每年額外成長約 1 億到 1.5 億美元。

Your next question comes from Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. One is, Mark or Greg, if you look at all the analog digestion that's going on and the fact that memory slowed down, you guys see the memory impact 2 to 3 quarters after the front-end guys. Historically, your Q4 has been this low watermark for Semi Test revenues, and it's improved in Q1. Is it fair to assume, given all that's going on, Q1 sequentially could be down from Q4?

我有兩個問題。第一個是，Mark 或 Greg，若你看目前類比（analog）消化庫存的情況，以及記憶體放緩的事實，你們通常會在前段廠商之後 2 到 3 個季度才感受到記憶體的影響。歷史上，你們的第四季一直是半導體測試營收的低點，然後第一季會改善。在目前這些狀況下，是否可以合理假設第一季的季增（sequential）可能會比第四季下滑？

Well, I think could -- as a could statement, yes, I don't know that, that's what we would expect. I think, for example, in the automation businesses, Q4 is always a peak. And as they become a larger -- and then Q1 is down from Q4. That's been true for the past 4 years. We expect that again next year. And as they become a bigger part of Teradyne, that would tend to drive that negative delta Q4 to Q1. The Semi Test piece, usually, we begin to see the very beginnings of the mobility ramp for the summer at the tail end of Q1, but that can move around between sort of March and April. So that's the kind of the one wildcard. The other businesses, LitePoint, System Test, as an example, look pretty strong. So I would expect there we'd see a little bit of growth in Q1. So it's really back to, okay, we know what's going to happen with the automation groups. They're going to be down. And I don't know how much, but maybe it's going to be down $20 million or so from Q4. But what's going to happen with the timing of the mobility ramp is what the key swing factor is in Q1.

嗯，我想如果用「可能」來說，是的；我不確定那是否就是我們所預期的。例如在自動化業務方面，第四季一向是高峰。而且隨著它們占比變大——第一季就會比第四季下來。過去 4 年都是如此。我們預期明年也會一樣。而當它們成為 Teradyne 更大的一部分時，這會傾向於推動第四季到第一季的負向變化。半導體測試這一塊，通常我們會在第一季尾端開始看到夏季行動裝置（mobility）拉貨爬坡的最初跡象，但這可能在 3 月與 4 月之間移動。所以這算是一個變數。其他業務，例如 LitePoint、系統測試（System Test），看起來都相當強勁。所以我預期那邊第一季會有一些成長。因此回到重點：我們知道自動化事業群會發生什麼事。它們會下滑。我不知道會下滑多少，但也許會比第四季少約 2,000 萬美元左右。但第一季的關鍵擺盪因素，是行動裝置拉貨爬坡時點會怎麼走。

All right. All right. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up on the robotics, on the AI side, between Universal Robots, MiR and Energid, do you feel you have all the components needed to like target the small- to large-scale businesses and also some of the key factors that you guys have been focused historically on like things like bin picking and collision avoidance? Or do you think there are other holes that need to be plugged, including probably looking at the vision side of the business of the handlers?

好。好。這很有幫助。接著在機器人方面、AI 這一塊，在 Universal Robots、MiR 與 Energid 之間，你們是否覺得已具備所有必要的組件，能夠鎖定從小型到大型企業，同時也涵蓋你們過去一直關注的一些關鍵因素，例如料箱取放（bin picking）與避碰（collision avoidance）？或者你認為還有其他缺口需要補上，包括可能要看一下視覺（vision）端的業務或搬運機（handlers）那一側？

I'll take that one. I think there's going to be other enabling technologies that can help us extend the products into new applications that they're not in now. We may find that the ecosystem provides that capability. But in the case of, take Energid, we thought it was best if we advance that capability forward because we didn't see path planning being brought to cobots, and has greatly limited what cobots could do for 3D pick-and-place. So it's very specific to the situation. If you take vision as an example that there's a lot of good vision modules out there already. So there may be opportunities to, simply with software, make the vision easier to use versus get involved in anything to do with the vision because there's third parties who are very capable. But it's really making it easier to use is where we come into play. But there's a lot of things in our funnel that we're looking at. So I would expect there would be the other M&A opportunities over the next couple of years.

我來回答這題。我認為還會有其他賦能技術（enabling technologies）能幫助我們把產品延伸到目前尚未切入的新應用。我們可能會發現生態系就能提供那種能力。但以 Energid 為例，我們認為最好由我們把那項能力往前推進，因為我們沒有看到路徑規劃（path planning）被帶進協作機器人（cobots），而這也大幅限制了協作機器人在 3D 取放（pick-and-place）方面能做的事。所以這非常取決於具體情境。以視覺為例，市面上已經有很多很好的視覺模組。因此可能會有機會，僅透過軟體讓視覺更容易使用，而不是去涉入任何與視覺硬體相關的事情，因為第三方已經非常有能力。但我們的角色是在於讓它更容易使用。不過我們的漏斗（funnel）裡還有很多事情正在評估。所以我預期未來幾年還會有其他併購（M&A）機會。

Your next question comes from Weston Twigg from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

I just have a couple of quick ones. One, on the auto space, can you help us understand what your overall exposure is to the auto market?

我只有幾個很快的問題。第一個，在汽車領域，你能否幫我們了解你們對汽車市場的整體曝險（exposure）有多大？

Let's see. I'm going to just look at some numbers here for a minute. So I would say, in general, revenue-wise, we are around $200 million or so a year of Semi Test revenue due to automotive, maybe a little -- it swings between $200 million to $250 million, but in that range.

我看看。我先看一下這裡的一些數字。所以我會說，整體而言，就營收來看，我們每年因汽車相關帶來的半導體測試營收大約在 2 億美元左右，可能略有——會在 2 億到 2.5 億美元之間波動，但大致在那個區間。

Okay, good. That's helpful. And then the other question I had was, just in general, you mentioned tariffs and they're not having -- there you're having. You were able to manage, I guess, the impacts related to the tariff and trade war stuff, But are you having any broader conversations with your customers that are concerning heading into, really, 2019 related to, I don't know, potential slowdown in either semi demand or test demand related to tariff or trade war concerns?

好的，很好。這很有幫助。我另一個問題是，整體而言，你提到關稅，而且它們沒有——你們正在承受的部分。你們似乎能夠管理與關稅及貿易戰相關的影響，但你們是否正在與客戶進行任何更廣泛、令人擔憂的對話，特別是展望 2019 年，關於我不知道——因關稅或貿易戰疑慮，可能導致半導體需求或測試需求放緩？

At the moment, no. In fact, our Semi Test sales are up in China this year compared to last year. But there are certainly conversations about all types of scenarios, what level of support could we provide if some scenario happened. And we continue to tell our Chinese customers that we manufacture our UltraFLEX products in Suzhou, China. And we ship it to China. So we think we're in a good spot. But the only place where we can see where it's come back as a reason for the pause is that UR through the distributors that they see more uncertainty at the small and medium enterprise level. Now the Semi Test companies are still going very strong moving aggressively in China. So we're not seeing any slowdown there.

目前沒有。事實上，我們今年在中國的半導體測試（Semi Test）銷售額相較去年是成長的。但確實有在討論各種情境，如果發生某種情境，我們能提供到什麼程度的支援。我們也持續告訴中國客戶，我們的 UltraFLEX 產品是在中國蘇州製造。並且我們把它出貨到中國。所以我們認為我們處於不錯的位置。但我們唯一看到它被拿來作為暫停原因的地方，是 UR 透過經銷商回報，他們在中小企業層級看到更多不確定性。不過半導體測試公司在中國仍然非常強勁、積極推進。所以我們沒有看到那邊有任何放緩。

Your next question comes from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Toshiya Hari。

Mark, you talked about your memory test business is growing about -- I think it was about 90% year-over-year over the past 9 months. You're clearly picking up share here. Is that purely a function of the Magnum platform and you picking up some business there? Or is your NAND -- your flash package test business growing nicely as well? And kind of related to that, you've mentioned a couple of times that you expect the memory test TAM to revert lower to $750 million at some point. During that reversion to the downside, do you think you can continue to grow your memory test business, given potential for share growth?

Mark，你提到你們的記憶體測試業務在過去 9 個月年對年成長約——我記得大概是 90%。你們顯然正在這裡取得市占。這純粹是 Magnum 平台、以及你們在那裡拿到一些業務所致嗎？還是你們的 NAND——也就是快閃封裝測試業務也成長得不錯？另外相關地，你們提過幾次，你們預期記憶體測試的 TAM 最終會回落到 7.5 億美元。在這個向下回落的過程中，考量到市占提升的潛力，你認為你們仍能持續成長記憶體測試業務嗎？

Okay. So most of the growth this year in our sales of memory test have come from 2 things. The new product in wafer -- flash wafer test is one element of that. And then another element is we are finding some applications for the Magnum in DRAM wafer test as well. So those are the biggest chunks. And then there's a little bit of growth in the NAND final test as well. But if you were to sort of put it in buckets it'd be, first wafer test for flash, then it would be wafer test for DRAM, and then finally some organic growth in our core area. And the second part of the question...

好的。所以我們今年記憶體測試銷售的大部分成長來自兩件事。晶圓端的新產品——快閃記憶體晶圓測試——是其中一個因素。另一個因素是，我們也在 DRAM 晶圓測試中找到一些 Magnum 的應用。所以這兩塊是最大的貢獻。另外 NAND 最終測試也有一些小幅成長。但如果要分桶來看，第一是快閃晶圓測試，其次是 DRAM 晶圓測試，最後是在我們核心領域的一些有機成長。至於問題的第二部分……

Can we grow share of those markets as the markets get smaller?

當市場規模變小時，我們能在那些市場提升市占嗎？

Oh, share, yes. So our view of that is as the -- we revert back to the $750 million or so, our share should be able to move based on the current product we have and some new products that are in the pipeline up to that mid-40s, 50% number by that 2021 midterm point. Share in memory kind of moves in bigger chunks than SOC, where 1 to 2 points a year is tough slog because of the concentration there in memory. We think we can move it a bit faster.

喔，市占，可以。我們的看法是，當市場回落到大約 7.5 億美元時，基於我們目前的產品以及一些在研發管線中的新產品，我們的市占應該能在 2021 年中期那個時間點提升到 40% 中段到 50% 的水準。記憶體的市占變動通常比 SOC 更以較大幅度的區塊移動；在記憶體這種高度集中市場裡，每年提升 1 到 2 個百分點是很辛苦的。我們認為我們可以更快一些。

Okay, great. And as a follow-up, I had a question on cobot adoption rates. You guys have talked about your expectations for there being waves of adoption going forward. Do you think the e-Series that you just recently introduced can drive one of those waves? If not, when do you think we'll see the rate of growth inflect to the upside in your UR business?

好的，很棒。另外追問一下，我有個關於協作機器人（cobot）採用率的問題。你們談過你們預期未來會有一波波的採用浪潮。你們認為你們最近推出的 e-Series 能推動其中一波嗎？如果不能，你們認為 UR 業務的成長率何時會向上拐點？

I think the e-Series can drive an initial wave. I think some of the bigger waves come from enabling technologies, such as this Energid Actin path planning, where today cobots aren't very good with -- they really don't have path plannings. They're very limited as to what they can pick up or maneuver around, say, a tray or a bin. So there's many tedious jobs, picking things out of bins or trays that we believe, over time, with this software, we'll be able to make those tasks accessible with cobots. That, to me, is probably the clearest example. But if you look at the growing number of UR+-certified third parties on our website, you could see many different applications. And a number of them we would not have thought about. That's the beauty of this, is we have a lot of R&D dollars by others who are closer to end vertical markets. And then they see a need and they build form our platform.

我認為 e-Series 可以帶動初始的一波。我認為更大的浪潮來自於賦能技術，例如這個 Energid Actin 的路徑規劃；因為目前協作機器人在——它們其實沒有什麼路徑規劃能力。它們在能夠拾取或繞行的範圍上非常有限，例如在托盤或料箱周圍移動。所以有很多繁瑣的工作，例如從料箱或托盤中取出物件，我們相信隨著時間推進，透過這套軟體，我們將能讓協作機器人也能勝任這些任務。對我而言，那可能是最清楚的例子。但如果你看看我們網站上越來越多通過 UR+ 認證的第三方，你會看到許多不同的應用。其中有不少是我們原本想不到的。這就是它的美妙之處：有很多其他公司投入的研發資金，而且他們更貼近終端垂直市場。然後他們看到需求，就在我們的平台上開發。

And Greg, the path planning example that you just mentioned, is that sort of a 2019 or 2020 dynamic? Or...

Greg，你剛提到的路徑規劃例子，這比較像是 2019 或 2020 年的動態嗎？還是……

Yes, yes. End of 2019, I would expect that we would have some sales that we would not otherwise have, and I think 2020 is the year there'll be a meaningful wave there.

是的，是的。我預期在 2019 年底，我們會有一些原本不會有的銷售，我也認為 2020 年會是出現有意義浪潮的一年。

Your next question comes from Patrick Ho from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Maybe just following off of Weston's question regarding China and the tariffs. Given some of the potential market opportunities longer term in the local Chinese memory market that you detailed, I guess, first, remind us where the Magnum is produced? And what can you do potentially to ship manufacturing around to, I guess, supply that market if the tariff get a little bit out of hand?

也許延續 Weston 關於中國與關稅的問題。考量你們所描述的中國本地記憶體市場長期潛在機會，我想先請你提醒我們，Magnum 是在哪裡生產的？如果關稅變得有點失控，為了供應那個市場，你們在製造與出貨上可能可以做哪些調整？

Well, on that score, the Nextest Magnum product is in Malaysia. So it's not in the U.S., which obviously is a plus. Now we have -- about a year ago, we did -- there's a small amount of testers that we would shipped into the U.S., very small for engineering characterization. We were able, given the unique configuration of those testers to move those to other sites outside of China and do the box build configuration and then avoid the tariff legitimately. So there is some ability to move some things around, but you can't move large amounts of manufacturing. But I don't think we'll need to because most of our manufacturing, particularly for Semi Test, it's all in Asia. So it's already there. And then you take Universal Robots, they're in Denmark. So the only place we really have manufacturing in the U.S. is LitePoint. It's our mil-aero -- in mil-aero business. Rest everything else is offshore.

就這點而言，Nextest Magnum 產品是在馬來西亞。所以不在美國，這顯然是加分。大約一年前，我們曾——有少量測試機會出貨到美國，數量非常少，主要用於工程特性化（engineering characterization）。由於那些測試機的獨特配置，我們能把它們移到中國以外的其他據點進行整機組裝（box build）配置，從而合法地避開關稅。所以在某些項目上有一些調整空間，但你無法大規模搬移製造。但我不認為我們需要這麼做，因為我們大部分的製造，特別是半導體測試（Semi Test），都在亞洲。所以本來就已經在那裡。再來 Universal Robots 在丹麥。我們真正位於美國的製造只有 LitePoint。是在我們的軍工航太（mil-aero）業務。其餘幾乎都在海外。

Great. That's helpful, Greg. And as my follow-up question, you talked about some of the applications that you continue to develop for the IA business. Can you give a little bit of color in terms of the development of these type of applications, and how long it takes before you're introducing them in the products, whether as a software application or through some of your hardware products like the e-Series you just introduced?

很好。這很有幫助，Greg。作為追問，你談到你們持續為 IA 業務開發一些應用。你能否補充一些細節，說明這類應用的開發情況，以及從開發到導入產品通常需要多久——不論是以軟體應用形式，或是透過你們一些硬體產品，例如你們剛推出的 e-Series？

Yes. So I think the e-Series as an example was probably about a 1.5 years development cycle. The bin picking, and that one, I think as Greg described, it's not really a major wave. It's a platform that enables what's coming. And the real, I'd say, biggest one on the horizon is this economical, vision-based bin picking solution that is probably, all said and done, will be about 2 to 2.5 years in development. And we will begin selling that next summer roughly. And it will have an impact in 2020. So from the time we start until the time it has a measurable meaningful impact, it might be 3, 3.5 years for a major innovation like that. Other things like, for example, in the script, I talked about Soft Robotics. Grippers are another area where innovation is needed. Here's a company developing a gripper that allows manipulation of small or fragile objects. That opens up many more applications. That development for that company outside of Teradyne, but applicable to us, was probably about 1.5 years. So figure in the space anywhere from 1 year to 3 years depending on the magnitude of the sort of innovation.

是的。所以我認為以 e-Series 為例，可能大約是 1.5 年的開發週期。至於料箱取料（bin picking），以及那個，我想如 Greg 所描述的，它其實不算是一個主要浪潮。它是一個能夠支撐未來發展的平台。而真正、我會說、眼前最大的項目，是這個具成本效益、以視覺為基礎的料箱取料解決方案；整體算下來，開發大概需要 2 到 2.5 年。我們大約會在明年夏天開始銷售。並且會在 2020 年產生影響。所以從我們開始到它產生可衡量且有意義的影響，像那樣的重大創新可能需要 3 到 3.5 年。其他事情例如，在講稿中我提到 Soft Robotics。夾爪是另一個需要創新的領域。這裡有一家公司正在開發一種夾爪，能夠操控小型或易碎物件。那會開啟更多應用。那家公司（不在 Teradyne 內部，但對我們適用）的開發時間大概也是 1.5 年。所以在這個領域，視創新規模大小而定，週期大約從 1 年到 3 年不等。

Okay. And operator, we can sneak just one quick question in before we close.

好的。接線員，在我們結束前，我們可以再插入一個簡短問題。

Okay, Then your final question then is David Duley from Steelhead.

好的，那麼你們的最後一個問題是 Steelhead 的 David Duley。

Most of them have been answered, but just a couple of follow-ons, I guess. You've mentioned in the past that advanced packaging, like InFO, is more test-intensive than a standard package. Could you just remind us how much more test-intensive one of those types of package is than a standard package?

大部分都已經回答了，不過我想再追問幾點。你們過去提到，先進封裝（例如 InFO）比標準封裝更「測試密集」。能否請你提醒我們，這類封裝相較於標準封裝，測試密集程度大概高出多少？

Yes. So there's a couple of factors. One factor is the degree of, let's say, contacting or parallelism you can achieve with some of these advanced packages is limited compared to a traditional a semiconductor package. That -- the same essential complexity in an advanced package versus a traditional semiconductor package could be or has been recently about a 20% bump on the advanced package side in terms of test time. And then the other factor that we get is the level of interconnects that need to be tested and the degree with which some -- it's not all on the same piece of silicon. So the characterization of crosstalk and impedance mismatches goes up when you're in an advanced package environment. So the amount of testing of those interconnects necessarily goes up. That's a less impactful -- but it might be like a 5% ahead or so. When you put the 2 together, maybe 25%.

是的。所以有幾個因素。其中一個因素是，與傳統半導體封裝相比，某些先進封裝在可達成的接觸（contacting）或並行度（parallelism）方面會受到限制。在測試時間方面，先進封裝相對於傳統半導體封裝，在同等基本複雜度下，最近可能會增加約 20%。另一個因素是需要測試的互連（interconnect）數量，以及其中一些——並非全部——不在同一片矽上。因此，在先進封裝環境下，串擾（crosstalk）與阻抗不匹配的特性化（characterization）會增加。所以對這些互連的測試量必然會上升。這個影響較小——但可能大約再多 5% 左右。兩者加總起來，可能約 25%。

Okay. And then you mentioned about Chinese memory. Do you -- I guess, what you said is you haven't really seen those guys start to buy back any equipment. Will you have the same type of market share with those domestic memory guys in China that you have currently in the market? Or do you expect it to be higher or lower? Help us handicap that.

好的。另外你提到中國的記憶體。你——我想你剛才的意思是，你們還沒有真正看到那些公司開始回頭購買設備。你們在中國這些本土記憶體廠商那邊，會有跟目前市場相同的市佔率嗎？還是你預期會更高或更低？請幫我們評估一下。

Let's see. I would say that in flash, where we have historically concentrated that we would expect it to be higher actually because we participate both in package test and wafer test. And in some of the DRAM spaces, since we have very low share in DRAM, I would expect it to be higher, too. So overall, China should be -- if our worldwide share right now is roughly 30%, China should be slightly better than that starting out.

我想想。我會說在快閃記憶體（flash）方面，我們歷來投入較多，我們預期市佔率其實會更高，因為我們同時參與封裝測試與晶圓測試。而在部分 DRAM 領域，由於我們在 DRAM 的市佔率非常低，我也預期會更高。所以整體而言，中國應該會——如果我們目前全球市佔率大約是 30%，那麼在中國一開始應該會略高於這個水準。

Okay, folks, and we are out of time. Thanks so much for joining us today. Look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. And if anyone's left in the queue, I'll get back to you straight away. Thanks so much.

好的，各位，我們時間到了。非常感謝今天加入我們。期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。如果還有人在等候隊列中，我會立刻回覆你。非常感謝。

Thank you, everyone. This will conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。