Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2026 Q2 results webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，感謝您稍候。歡迎收聽 Smurfit Westrock 2026 年第二季業績網路直播與電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfit Westrock Group VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Smurfit Westrock 集團投資人關係副總裁 Ciaran Potts。請開始。

Thank you, Sharon. As a reminder, statements in today's press release and presentation and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings as well as those discussed in our investor update presentation on our medium-term plan.

謝謝你，Sharon。提醒各位，今日新聞稿與簡報中的陳述，以及管理層在本次電話會議中的評論，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期與推估出現重大差異。這些風險與不確定性包括但不限於：財報新聞稿與我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所識別的因素，以及我們在中期計畫投資人更新簡報中所討論者。

The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements. Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Where applicable, reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and in the appendix to the accompanying presentation which are available at investors.smurfitwestrock.com.

本公司不承擔修訂任何前瞻性陳述之義務。今日發言亦提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。如適用，與最可比 GAAP 指標之調節表已載於今日的財報新聞稿及隨附簡報的附錄中，相關資料可於 investors.smurfitwestrock.com 取得。

In addition, today's remarks include statements about Smurfit Westrock medium-term financial goals and capital allocation priorities. These goals are aspirational and actual performance may differ possibly materially, and no guarantees are made that these goals will be met.

此外，今日發言包含關於 Smurfit Westrock 中期財務目標與資本配置優先事項的陳述。這些目標屬於願景性目標，實際表現可能（且可能重大地）有所不同，且不保證一定能達成這些目標。

I'll now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Westrock.

接下來我把時間交給 Smurfit Westrock 執行長 Tony Smurfit。

Thanks, Ciaran. I'm happy to be joined today by Ken Bowles, our EVP and CFO. Our second quarter results demonstrate the continued progress we have made in Smurfit Westrock with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.14 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2%. This is especially impressive when set against the very significant input costs we have absorbed with only early-stage momentum on price recovery.

謝謝你，Ciaran。今天很高興與我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Bowles 一同出席。我們第二季的業績展現了 Smurfit Westrock 持續取得的進展，調整後 EBITDA 為 11.4 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.2%。在我們吸收了非常顯著的投入成本、而價格回升動能仍處於早期階段的背景下，這尤其令人印象深刻。

Cost increases, especially in freight, have been a feature of the quarter and as a result, we have raised containerboard prices. These will be recovered through our converting operations as we progress through this year and into next. Market conditions for practically all paper grades remain as tight as I can remember. Our focus remains on being the most innovative packaging partner delivering superior quality and service for our customers and the go-to sustainable packaging partner of choice. And as such, we remain committed to improving all aspects of our business.

成本上升，特別是運輸費用，是本季的特徵，因此我們已調漲箱板紙價格。隨著我們在今年及明年推進，這些將透過我們的加工（converting）營運逐步回收。幾乎所有紙品等級的市場狀況仍然緊俏，緊俏程度是我記憶中少見的。我們的重點仍是成為最具創新力的包裝合作夥伴，為客戶提供卓越的品質與服務，並成為首選的永續包裝合作夥伴。因此，我們仍致力於改善業務的各個面向。

We're also relentless in our approach to cost takeout, which we have again demonstrated through asset optimization with a number of closures in both our North American and EMEA and APAC regions. We've also continued focus on our owner-operator model, which I'm happy to report is showing considerable progress as we develop the new Smurfit Westrock culture.

我們在成本削減方面也毫不鬆懈，並再次透過資產最佳化展現成果，在北美以及 EMEA 與 APAC 地區進行了多項關閉措施。我們也持續聚焦於我們的業主—營運者（owner-operator）模式；我很高興地報告，隨著我們打造新的 Smurfit Westrock 文化，該模式正展現相當可觀的進展。

Turning to the regions and firstly to North America. I'm happy to report progress and development across practically all areas. Most importantly, our full team for the future is now in place and delivering both cultural and operational change. Nearly all our paper mill system is fully booked and no commercial downtime is anticipated for the remainder of the year. We have implemented pricing initiatives in both domestic and overseas markets, and shortage of supply is the current issue surrounding this business area.

接著談各地區，首先是北美。我很高興報告，幾乎所有領域都在進步與發展。最重要的是，我們面向未來的完整團隊現已到位，並正在推動文化與營運上的變革。我們幾乎所有造紙廠系統的產能都已滿載，預期今年剩餘期間不會有商業性停機。我們已在國內與海外市場推動定價措施，而供應短缺是目前圍繞此業務領域的主要議題。

In our corrugated box operations, I'm delighted to report continued progress as we adopt our business model. A number of recurring loss makers has considerably reduced, and our focus on innovation and customer service is attracting significant new business. Our quality and service metrics continue to improve. For example, year-to-date, our quality metric has improved by over 25%.

在我們的瓦楞紙箱營運方面，隨著我們採用自身的商業模式，我很高興地報告持續取得進展。多個長期虧損項目已大幅減少，而我們對創新與客戶服務的聚焦正吸引大量新業務。我們的品質與服務指標持續改善。例如，截至目前，我們的品質指標已提升超過 25%。

In our consumer business, we have also made significant progress with new investments coming online, which will improve both productivity and our cost position. Importantly, we've also won new business because of our grade agnostic approach that we have adopted.

在我們的消費品業務方面，隨著新投資陸續上線，我們也取得了顯著進展，這將同時提升生產力並改善成本結構。重要的是，我們也因採用不受紙種限制（grade agnostic）的策略而贏得新業務。

In our EMEA and APAC region, I'm very proud of the outperformance this region continues to deliver. The region consistently offers customers the most innovative and sustainable packaging as customers navigate a complex environment. Our recent innovation event intended by over 200 customers demonstrated the depth of knowledge that we offer across all paper-based substrates.

在 EMEA 與 APAC 地區，我對該地區持續交出超越表現感到非常自豪。在客戶面對複雜環境之際，該地區持續為客戶提供最具創新性與永續性的包裝。我們近期的創新活動有超過 200 位客戶參與，展現了我們在各類紙基材料上的深厚專業。

In our fully integrated mail system, similar to North America, we're fully booked, and we expect to remain in this position. Our corrugated business remains very solid with a better performance forecast for the second half as we recover input costs with the normal lag period. Our consumer business is now fully integrated, and there are many cross-selling and development opportunities that we're developing across Europe and Asia.

在我們的全整合造紙系統中，與北美類似，我們已滿載接單，且預期將維持此狀態。我們的瓦楞業務仍然非常穩健，隨著我們在正常的滯後期間回收投入成本，預期下半年表現將更佳。我們的消費品業務現已完全整合，並且我們正在歐洲與亞洲開發許多交叉銷售與業務拓展機會。

Turning to LatAm region. We continue to see a strong performance across most countries in which we operate with 2 larger countries, Brazil and Colombia performing very well. Our approach to innovation across the region is a significant differentiator, and our market positions give us opportunities for growth. This region is an attractive region for both internal investment and acquisitions as we look to the future.

接著談拉丁美洲（LatAm）地區。我們在多數營運國家持續看到強勁表現，其中兩個較大的國家巴西與哥倫比亞表現非常出色。我們在整個地區推動創新的做法是重要的差異化因素，而我們的市場地位也帶來成長機會。展望未來，該地區對內部投資與併購而言都是具吸引力的區域。

I'll now turn you over to Ken to take you through some financials.

接下來我把時間交給 Ken，請他帶各位看一些財務數字。

Thank you, Tony. Overall, this is a strong second quarter performance for the group. And as a reminder, we've included detailed adjusted EBITDA bridges in the appendix for those who want to understand the quarter in more detail. At a high level, freight costs globally represented a significant headwind, driven largely by higher fuel costs and shipping rates due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and higher domestic transportation costs in both Europe and North America. Despite that, our teams across all regions did an excellent job mitigating those cost pressures through operational execution, pricing initiatives and disciplined cost management.

謝謝你，Tony。整體而言，這是集團第二季的強勁表現。提醒各位，對於希望更深入了解本季表現的人，我們已在附錄中提供詳細的調整後 EBITDA 橋接表。從高層次來看，全球運費成本是顯著的逆風，主要由較高的燃料成本與航運費率所驅動，原因包括中東持續衝突，以及歐洲與北美更高的國內運輸成本。儘管如此，我們各地區團隊仍透過營運執行、定價措施與嚴謹的成本管理，有效緩解了這些成本壓力。

In North America, we continue to make significant operational and commercial progress, while corrugated volumes were down 4.8% on a same-day basis or 4.5% on an absolute basis, this is very much in line with our expectations as we continue to execute on our value over volume strategy. Importantly, we are seeing further improvement advance with good order books and a strong pipeline of new corrugated business moving through August and into September.

在北美，我們持續在營運與商業面取得顯著進展；雖然瓦楞出貨量以同日基礎計算下降 4.8%，或以絕對值計算下降 4.5%，但這與我們的預期非常一致，因為我們持續執行「重價值勝於重數量」的策略。重要的是，我們看到進一步改善正在推進，訂單簿表現良好，且大量新的瓦楞業務管線將延續至 8 月並進入 9 月。

We remain focused on improving the quality of our customer portfolio, winning business where our decentralized operating model provides real value while exiting lower-margin business that does not meet our return requirements.

我們仍專注於提升客戶組合的品質：在我們的分散式營運模式能提供實質價值的領域贏得業務，同時退出不符合我們報酬要求的低毛利業務。

Selling price remained a headwind in the quarter due to a small pass-through impact of weaker containerboard index pricing in February and also coming before higher index pricing was realized in some of our paperboard grades which came this month. As mentioned, the region also absorbed a substantial portion of the group's freight inflation, yet still delivered a very resilient performance.

本季銷售價格仍是逆風，原因在於 2 月箱板紙指數價格走弱帶來的小幅轉嫁影響，且時間點也早於我們部分紙板等級在本月才實現的較高指數價格。如前所述，該地區也吸收了集團運費通膨的相當大一部分，但仍交出非常具韌性的表現。

Our mill system remains generally full, order books are healthy and commercial momentum continues to strengthen. In our EMEA and APAC region, Smurfit Westrock continues to outperform through disciplined commercial execution, strong cost management and an unwavering focus on customer service, quality and innovation.

我們的造紙廠系統整體而言仍接近滿載，訂單簿健康，商業動能持續增強。在 EMEA 與 APAC 地區，Smurfit Westrock 透過嚴謹的商業執行、強而有力的成本管理，以及對客戶服務、品質與創新的堅定聚焦，持續展現優於同業的表現。

Corrugated volumes were up 1.9% on an absolute basis or 1.5% on a same-day basis. Our mill system operated at full capacity and the integrated nature of our business continues to be a significant source of competitive advantage. Despite ongoing freight and energy cost inflation in the region, which has led to near-term margin compression, the team delivered another strong result supported by positive volume growth and continued productivity, procurement and footprint optimization initiatives.

瓦楞紙箱出貨量以絕對值計增加1.9%，以同日基礎計增加1.5%。我們的紙廠系統滿載運轉，而我們業務的一體化特性持續成為重要的競爭優勢來源。儘管該地區運費與能源成本持續通膨，導致短期利潤率受壓縮，團隊在正向的量增以及持續推動生產力、採購與據點（版圖）優化計畫的支持下，再度交出強勁成果。

Latin America, again delivered another excellent quarter. Demand remained healthy across our key markets as corrugated volumes continue to grow. The region continues to benefit from its strong market positions and the operational improvements delivered through recent investment programs. As a result, Latin America continues to generate attractive margins and strong returns while also presenting significant opportunities for future growth.

拉丁美洲再次交出非常出色的一季。我們主要市場的需求維持健康，瓦楞紙箱出貨量持續成長。因此，拉丁美洲持續創造具吸引力的利潤率與強勁報酬，同時也展現未來成長的重大機會。

Our approach to capital allocation remains unchanged. We have a business with strong cash generation, strong balance sheet and a significant opportunity to create value through disciplined investment and execution. As a team with deep industry experience, we continue to view internally deployed capital as the lowest risk and highest quality use of capital, an approach remains central to the future success of our business.

我們的資本配置方針維持不變。我們擁有現金創造力強、資產負債表穩健的業務，並且透過嚴謹投資與執行，有顯著的價值創造機會。作為一個具深厚產業經驗的團隊，我們仍認為將資本投入於內部是風險最低、品質最高的資本用途，而此一做法仍是我們業務未來成功的核心。

Fundamentally, that is a return-focused approach. Our balanced capital expenditure program is focused on improving our asset base, increasing efficiency and supporting growth in attractive markets. As a reminder, the average annual CapEx across our plan is approximately $2.5 billion a year, with an average project spend of approximately $4 million and no projects of scale in any 1 year. We currently expect to spend between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion in total CapEx this year, which is well in excess of maintenance capital and in line with our D&A.

從根本上說，這是一種以報酬為導向的方法。我們均衡的資本支出計畫著重於改善資產基礎、提升效率，並支持在具吸引力市場中的成長。提醒一下，我們計畫期間的平均年度資本支出（CapEx）約為每年25億美元，平均單一專案支出約為400萬美元，且任何單一年份都沒有大型規模專案。我們目前預期今年總資本支出將介於24億至25億美元之間，明顯高於維持性資本支出，並與我們的折舊與攤銷（D&A）水準一致。

As we outlined earlier this year, we also see substantial free cash flow generation over the coming years. And I would note that again today, we announced a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per ordinary share. Underlying all of this is a balance sheet with significant strength and flexibility. As profitability and returns improve, we believe we are well positioned to continue to invest behind growth and cost takeout opportunities, while at the same time, increasing returns to shareholders.

如同我們今年稍早所說明的，我們也預期未來幾年將產生可觀的自由現金流。我也要再次指出，我們今天宣布每季股利為每股普通股0.4523美元。支撐這一切的是一個具顯著實力與彈性的資產負債表。隨著獲利能力與報酬提升，我們相信我們已具備良好條件，能持續投資於成長與降本機會，同時提高對股東的回饋。

We are committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating and are firmly positioned in that space with BAA2 rating and positive outlook from Moody's, BBB with stable outlook from S&P and BBB+ with stable outlook from Fitch.

我們致力於維持強健的投資等級信用評等，並已穩固處於該區間：穆迪（Moody's）給予BAA2評等且展望正向；標普（S&P）給予BBB評等且展望穩定；惠譽（Fitch）給予BBB+評等且展望穩定。

So the message is a simple one: Disciplined investment, disciplined capital allocation, and a clear focus on creating long-term value for shareholders.

因此訊息很簡單：嚴謹投資、嚴謹資本配置，並清楚聚焦於為股東創造長期價值。

Now as we look to the rest of the year, the main change in our full year outlook is indeed the higher freight cost environment. As we discussed, Advanced outside control have resulted in significantly higher freight costs across the group, and this remains the most significant headwind we faced in 2026. While we haven't implemented pricing initiatives to recover costs, there is naturally a lag before those actions are fully reflected in realized pricing and earnings. As a result, the cost impact has been felt immediately, while the recovery comes through over time.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們全年展望的主要變化確實是更高的運費成本環境。如我們所討論，外部不可控因素已導致集團整體運費成本顯著上升，且這仍是我們在2026年面臨的最重大逆風。雖然我們已採取定價措施以回收成本，但這些行動在實際價格與獲利中完全反映，通常會有時間落差。因此，成本衝擊會立即顯現，而回收則會隨時間逐步體現。

Current energy costs are broadly in line with the assumptions we highlighted previously, while lower economic downtime in the region of GBP100 million, alongside continued operational execution and significant cost takeout programs across the group are helping to offset some of that freight and other cost pressures. However, as I'm sure you can appreciate, that inflationary cost environment is not showing signs of abatement and we will continue to evaluate all options available to us as we progress through the remainder of this year.

目前能源成本大致符合我們先前強調的假設；同時，該地區較低的經濟性停工（economic downtime）約1億英鎊，加上持續的營運執行，以及集團範圍內顯著的降本計畫，正協助抵銷部分運費與其他成本壓力。然而，如各位所能理解，這種通膨性的成本環境並未顯示緩解跡象，我們將在今年剩餘期間持續評估所有可用選項。

Taking all of that into account, we now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion. However, demand remained healthy across practically all paper grades, and we remain confident in the long-term earnings per share of the group.

綜合以上因素，我們目前預期全年調整後EBITDA將落在49億至51億美元區間。不過，幾乎所有紙品等級的需求仍維持健康，我們對集團長期每股盈餘仍具信心。

And with that, I'll hand you back to Tony for some concluding remarks.

接下來我把時間交還給Tony做一些結語。

Thank you, Ken. When we set out our medium-term plan in February, we presented a program of self-improvement led by operating excellence and disciplined capital allocation. We're also driving a much sharper commercial focus delivering quality, value and innovation for our customers. I'm very happy to report that we continue to make progress towards these objectives.

謝謝你，Ken。當我們在2月提出中期計畫時，我們呈現了一項以營運卓越與嚴謹資本配置為主導的自我提升方案。我們也正推動更聚焦的商業策略，為客戶提供品質、價值與創新。我很高興向各位報告，我們持續朝這些目標取得進展。

Firstly, the performance like culture of Smurfit Westrock is accelerating with the right people, with the right skills and the right motivation to meet our objectives. The company is also progressing the transfer of best practice knowledge and innovation across our regions as we roll out our experience centers to ensure our customers have access to the worldwide knowledge of our over 2,000 designers globally.

首先，Smurfit Westrock 的績效導向文化正在加速成形，擁有合適的人才、合適的技能與合適的動機，以達成我們的目標。隨著我們推動體驗中心（experience centers）的佈建，公司也在各地區間加速移轉最佳實務知識與創新，確保客戶能取得我們全球超過2,000名設計師的世界級知識。

As a company, we have always been and will always be committed towards having well-invested world-class assets in a capital-efficient way. We know that this is the secret to ensuring to give our shareholders which include many within Smurfit Westrock longer-term market-leading returns. And I think we're well on our way to this objective.

作為一家公司，我們一直以來、也將一如既往地致力於以資本效率的方式，投資並維持世界級資產。我們知道，這是確保能為股東（其中也包括許多Smurfit Westrock內部人士）帶來長期市場領先報酬的關鍵。我認為我們正穩步朝這個目標前進。

Global paper markets today are as strong as I have seen in my lifetime within this industry. What we've previously characterized as a generally better industry environment is now a significantly stronger and better operating environment. This provides us with a stronger fundamental backdrop to deliver on our medium-term plan. Our mills provide security of supply to our world-class converting operations, which in turn deliver quality, service and innovation for our customers.

當今全球紙品市場之強勁，是我在此產業一生所見之最。我們先前所形容的「整體較佳的產業環境」，如今已成為顯著更強、更好的營運環境。這為我們落實中期計畫提供了更強的基本面背景。我們的紙廠為世界級的加工轉換（converting）營運提供供應安全，而這些營運反過來為客戶提供品質、服務與創新。

Smurfit Westrock is converting operations, are network to and connected with our over 30 innovation hubs across the continents and regions. This drives the continuous transfer of knowledge, application and innovation enabling Smurfit Westrock to provide our customers future packaging needs today.

Smurfit Westrock 的加工轉換營運，透過遍布各大洲與地區、超過30個創新樞紐的網絡相互連結。這推動知識、應用與創新的持續移轉，使Smurfit Westrock 能在今天就滿足客戶未來的包裝需求。

As we enter the second half of 2026, we have set a strong platform for the recovery of input costs and enhancement of our returns. This is especially true as we look into 2027 as we continue to execute on our strategic plan across all regions and fully implement all pricing initiatives. As we set out in February in a progressive step-by-step manner, we're building a stronger, better and more resilient Smurfit Westrock as we progress towards our medium- and longer-term objectives.

隨著我們進入2026年下半年，我們已建立起一個強健的平台，以回收投入成本並提升我們的報酬。當我們展望2027年時，這點尤其明顯，因為我們將持續在所有地區執行策略計畫，並全面落實所有定價措施。如同我們在2月以循序漸進的方式所闡述的，隨著我們朝中期與長期目標邁進，我們正在打造一個更強、更好且更具韌性的Smurfit Westrock。

I'm very confident in our team. I'm very confident in our offering to the marketplace. I'm very confident in our ability to execute, and I'm very confident in the long-term future of our globally integrated platform that will deliver value for all stakeholders.

我對我們的團隊非常有信心。我對我們提供給市場的產品與服務非常有信心。我對我們的執行能力非常有信心，也對我們全球一體化平台的長期未來非常有信心；該平台將為所有利害關係人創造價值。

And with that, thank you for taking the time to listen to us. I will hand it over back to the operator, Sharon, to get questions to us.

最後，感謝各位撥冗聆聽。我將把時間交回給接線員Sharon，請她協助安排提問。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

Gabe Hajde，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

I wanted to ask, Ken, I'm looking at the bridges in North America, and I think year-to-date, I'm just kind of going from a bridge you're kind of neutralish on gross price. I'm curious if you'd help us pause it how much traffic price or what you would expect sort of realization from just what's been recognized in [ROCE] in North America?

Ken，我想請教一下。我在看北美的橋接（bridge）分析，我認為截至目前為止，從橋接來看，你們在總體價格（gross price）上大致是偏中性。我想請你協助我們釐清：在北美，從目前在[ROCE]中已被認列的部分來看，運費價格（traffic price）大概占多少，或你預期會有多少的實現（realization）？

I suppose, Gabe, it's probably slightly more nuanced path given where pricing went. I mean that kind of pricing offset from the recovery, you would have seen true corrugated pricing in the first last number once it's probably on the paperboard side, if you remember, life of SBS came down, which is negatively impacting, if you like, the positive sentiment around that kind of pricing column.

我想，Gabe，考量到定價走勢，情況可能要更細緻一些。我的意思是，那種由復甦帶來的定價抵消效應，你在第一個數字裡其實會看到真正的瓦楞定價——大概是在紙板端；如果你記得，SBS 的價格下來了，這對你所說的、圍繞那類定價欄位的正面情緒造成了負面影響。

So we are absolutely beginning to see the benefits of the pricing initiatives that through back end of quarter one into quarter two in corrugated pricing. But just for this particular quarter, given where SBS went here and your paperwork grades, but principally SBS, you're getting a kind of natural negative offset within the total price for the overall group.

所以我們確實開始看到第一季後段到第二季期間，在瓦楞定價方面推動的定價措施所帶來的效益。但就這一個季度而言，考量到 SBS 在這裡的走勢以及你們的紙品等級（但主要是 SBS），在整體集團的總價格中，你會看到一種自然的負向抵消。

So I think the simplest way to think about it is, yes, progress continues and the recovery happens on the corrugated side, which you'll see more in quarter three, quarter four. But for this quarter, you're seeing the impact of paperboard prices lower year-on-year and the impact of that.

所以我認為最簡單的理解方式是：是的，進展仍在持續，瓦楞端的復甦也正在發生，你會在第三季、第四季看到更多。但在本季，你看到的是紙板價格年對年走低，以及其所帶來的影響。

Yes. I think, Gabe, you understand and the same in Europe that there is always a lag period as containerboard prices come in, and that can be -- depending on the customer, one month to up to six months, again, depending on the customer, and depending on the region. And so containerboard prices really rose -- actually fell in EUR20 in the first quarter and then came back up by EUR120 in the second quarter. So the full effect of that is going to be felt in quarter three and quarter four and any other pricing initiatives will be felt either very late quarter four or into quarter one of next year.

是的。我想，Gabe，你也理解，在歐洲也是一樣，當箱板紙價格調整時，總會有一段滯後期；這可能——視客戶而定——從一個月到最多六個月不等，同樣取決於客戶，也取決於地區。因此箱板紙價格在第一季其實上升——不，實際上在第一季下跌了 20 歐元，然後在第二季又回升了 120 歐元。所以其完整效果會在第三季與第四季反映出來，而任何其他定價措施的效果，則會在第四季非常後段或延伸到明年第一季才會反映。

Okay. Just maybe a point of clarification. I think from the disclosure you guys have given us, it's 8.5 million tonnes in North America of total containerboard.

好的。我只是想釐清一點。我想從你們提供的揭露來看，北美的箱板紙總量是 850 萬噸。

Yes. Containerboard.

是的。箱板紙。

Okay. Yes. And then on the volume cadence, I mean, it seemed like things within six weeks tightened up pretty quick. I'm curious from your system perspective, I know you guys have been busy at work, and I think you've mentioned winning over 500 new customers that should be commercializing in the back half. Maybe just a little bit finer point on would you expect, assuming the bottom doesn't fall out in volumes that you should inflect positive at some point in the second half in your own corrugated system. And then any particular markets that you're seeing strength in North America?

好的。是的。然後就出貨量的節奏來看，我的意思是，看起來在六週內就很快收緊了。我很好奇從你們系統的角度來看，我知道你們一直很忙，而且我想你們提到贏得了超過 500 個新客戶，應該會在下半年開始商業化。能否再更精準一點說明：假設出貨量不會崩跌，你是否預期在下半年某個時間點，你們自有的瓦楞系統出貨量會轉為正成長。另外，在北美你們看到哪些特定市場較強？

Our expectation, Gabe, is that either in the third or fourth quarter, we will be better in volumes than last year. And certainly, in talking to the folks in North America, we would expect to see positive months coming up in August and maybe even September. So our -- the acquisition of new business has continued to pace during the second quarter. Obviously, it takes a little while to get that in. And then we're starting to lap easier comparisons because all of the large e-commerce customer that we didn't continue with, we're not doing that.

Gabe，我們的預期是第三季或第四季，我們的出貨量會比去年更好。而且，與北美的同仁交流後，我們預期 8 月、甚至可能 9 月會出現正成長的月份。因此，我們——新業務的取得在第二季仍持續以相同步調推進。當然，導入需要一點時間。另外，我們也開始進入較容易的比較基期，因為那個我們沒有繼續合作的大型電商客戶，我們已經不再做了。

So therefore, that will make it a relatively easier comparison as we go into the second half of the year. So I think we're pretty optimistic about either later -- latter part of the third quarter, our fourth quarter being able to be positive versus last year.

因此，當我們進入下半年時，年對年的比較會相對更容易。所以我認為我們相當樂觀，第三季後段或第四季有機會相較去年轉為正成長。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Congrats on the progress.

恭喜你們的進展。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，Mike。

Just first question, I just wanted to follow up on what Gabe said. In terms of you mentioned good order books in August and as you move through September. Any way to quantify or provide some more color around what that means? What order book stand relative to, let's say, historical norms?

第一個問題，我想跟進一下 Gabe 提到的內容。你提到 8 月的訂單簿不錯，並且延續到 9 月。有沒有辦法量化一下，或提供更多說明這代表什麼？訂單簿相對於例如歷史常態水準是什麼位置？

Yes, I would say, are you talking about paper? Are you talking about corrugated?

是的，我想確認一下，你指的是紙品嗎？還是指瓦楞？

Actually, if you don't mind, Tony, both.

其實如果你不介意的話，Tony，兩者都想了解。

Okay. Well, as I said to you in my narrative, our paper markets, Mike, are as strong as I've ever seen. We are in a -- basically, with the exception of one small grade that we produce a little bit of with CRB, we're basically sold out in all paper grades and are -- in fact, we -- one of the reasons why if you look into the fourth quarter, we are very late in deliveries on our export orders.

好的。嗯，正如我在敘述中提到的，Mike，我們的紙品市場強勁程度是我所見過最強的。基本上，除了我們用 CRB 生產的一個小品級之外，我們幾乎所有紙品等級都已售罄——事實上，如果你看第四季，其中一個原因是我們的出口訂單交貨已經非常延遲。

So we're in very much catch-up mode in our system. As we look through the remainder of this year and even into the first part of next year on all brown paper grades. There are also some things happening on the bag and sack paper market with relation to e-commerce that are causing those markets to be very tight as well.

所以我們的系統目前非常處於追趕交貨的模式。當我們看今年剩餘時間，甚至到明年初，所有褐色紙品等級都是如此。另外，袋紙與牛皮紙市場也因電商相關因素出現一些變化，使得那些市場同樣非常吃緊。

So when you look at the brown grades, we are really sold out for the foreseeable future, and that obviously is very encouraging. When you look at the -- as I say, the consumer grades our CUK business has been very strong and is sold out and our SBS business as we develop new applications and really target a lot of smaller growth areas, but a lot of smaller things that are adding up to a lot of growth for us. And so we're in our SBS system sold out.

所以當你看褐色等級時，我們在可預見的未來幾乎都已售罄，這顯然非常令人鼓舞。再看——如我所說，消費者等級方面，我們的 CUK 業務非常強勁且已售罄；而我們的 SBS 業務，隨著我們開發新應用並真正鎖定許多較小的成長領域——很多小項目累積起來，對我們而言帶來很大的成長。因此，我們的 SBS 系統也已售罄。

And as I say, we've just got some small very small open capacity in the small business area for us in CRB, but that's not, as I say, very significant. So paper and then that's in the North American market. In the European market, same situation is essentially true. We've tightened up over the summer and really all paper grades are sold out through the end of the year.

而且如我所說，我們在 CRB 的小型業務領域仍有一些、非常少量的可用產能，但如我所言，那並不算很顯著。所以紙品——以上是在北美市場。在歐洲市場，基本上也是同樣情況。我們在夏季期間供需已收緊，且所有紙品等級到年底前都已售罄。

And then in our Latin American business, again, similar scenario in our paper markets were short of capacity. So very strong change in the marketplace in the last 6 months in paper. With regard to boxes is a little bit more nuanced, obviously, it depends very much on the markets and within markets, it depends on -- it depends on regions within markets. So for example, the Californian market isn't as strong as we would have expected it to be because of produce and you take, obviously, in Europe, if you take the Southern European markets, the heat wave there are affecting a little bit agriculture. So there's -- it really -- we could spend a long time talking about the nuances of different markets.

然後在我們的拉丁美洲業務，同樣地，我們的紙品市場也呈現類似情境——產能不足。所以過去 6 個月紙品市場出現非常強勁的變化。至於紙箱則更為細緻一些，顯然非常取決於市場；而在各市場內，又取決於——取決於市場內的不同地區。例如，加州市場沒有我們原先預期那麼強，因為農產品因素；而在歐洲，如果看南歐市場，熱浪也在一定程度上影響農業。所以——這真的——我們可以花很長時間談不同市場的細微差異。

But I would say, if you just take it broadly speaking, Latin America is a positive in general, I would say that Europe, with the exception of one or two markets is positive or very positive. And then in North America, depending on the region, it's basically flat to slightly positive for us as we look forward.

但我會說，如果廣義來看，拉丁美洲整體是正向的；歐洲除了少數一兩個市場之外，是正向或非常正向。而在北美，視地區而定，展望未來對我們而言大致是持平到小幅正向。

But as I say, a lot of the things that we're doing, Mike, are self initiative. We have done a lot of heavy lifting, but we still have a lot of heavy lifting to do. I mean we still have loss-making corrugated box plants, which -- many of which are our own fault, and we will turn those around in time.

但如我所說，Mike，我們正在做的很多事情都是自我驅動的措施。我們已經做了很多艱鉅的工作，但仍有很多艱鉅的工作要做。我的意思是，我們仍有虧損的瓦楞紙箱廠——其中很多是我們自己的問題——而我們會在適當時候把它們扭轉過來。

if I had a magic wand to be able to turn them around, I would. But they do take a little bit of time. And -- but we've made really very, very considerable progress on our corrugated converting operations in North America. And in our consumer businesses, again, we've made very considerable progress in developing those businesses. We need a little bit more price in some of those.

如果我有一根魔法棒能把它們扭轉過來，我會這麼做。但這確實需要一點時間。而且——但我們在北美的瓦楞紙加工（corrugated converting）業務上，已經取得非常、非常顯著的進展。在我們的消費品業務方面，同樣地，我們在發展這些業務上也取得了相當大的進展。在其中一些領域，我們還需要再多一點價格（調整空間）。

But basically, I'm really happy. And then if you turn to Europe, you look at our business, we have a very strong market position across all of the countries. And we've absorbed all the input costs during the first and second quarter of this year. And now we're about to get it back. And clearly, if there are more paper-led initiatives, then the benefit of those will be into 2027 across all 3 regions, actually.

但基本上，我真的很滿意。然後如果你把焦點轉到歐洲，看看我們的業務，我們在所有國家都擁有非常強的市場地位。而且我們在今年第一季和第二季吸收了所有投入成本。現在我們即將把它拿回來（透過價格回收）。而且很明顯，如果還有更多由紙張帶動的措施（paper-led initiatives），那麼其效益實際上會在三大區域一路延伸到2027年。

Got it. That's great. Just one quick follow-up, you mentioned having a little bit of slack in CRB. And I think that you mentioned last quarter that you're not making enough return on some of your CRB assets.

了解。很好。再快速追問一下，你提到在CRB上還有一點鬆動空間（slack）。而且我記得你上季提到，你們在部分CRB資產上的報酬不夠。

So does the shift of business away from CRB to SBS, CUK afford you the ability to improve your CRB asset base? Or alternatively, does it help you evaluate your current CRB footprint?

那麼，業務從CRB轉向SBS、CUK，是否讓你們有能力改善CRB的資產基礎？或者，是否有助於你們評估目前的CRB版圖（footprint）？

Yes. I mean I think we're -- I would say, Mike, as you know us, we continually evaluate our footprint. We've just closed down a long-standing asset in the UK, which is producing over 200,000 tonnes of recycled board because it came to the end of life, so to speak. And it was either invest or in a suboptimal scenario. But that asset stayed live for a long period of time.

是的。我的意思是，我想我們——我會說，Mike，如你所知，我們會持續評估我們的版圖。我們剛在英國關閉了一項長期運作的資產，該資產生產超過20萬噸再生紙板，因為它已經到了使用年限，這麼說吧。當時的選擇不是投資，就是落入一個不理想的情境。但那項資產已經維持運轉了很長一段時間。

And I would say that the CRB business, we continue to evaluate the mill system that we have. And they're all very cash -- or they're mostly all very cash generative and produce decent enough quality into our integrated system. So we're going to continue to work with them. But obviously, we keep them under evaluation as we do all of our assets. And we'll see what the future holds.

我會說，CRB業務方面，我們會持續評估我們現有的製漿造紙廠系統（mill system）。它們全部都非常能產生現金——或者說大多數都很能產生現金，並且在我們的整合系統中提供足夠好的品質。所以我們會繼續與它們一起運作。但很明顯，我們會像評估所有資產一樣，持續對它們進行評估。然後我們再看看未來會如何發展。

But clearly, they're earning cash and they're in the marketplace, providing the quality and service that we need and they're not in any drag on us. So I think as I say, we want to offer our customers the full suite of products, which is CRB, SBS, CUK and that approach has worked really well as we've looked at over the last 6 months. Giving our customers what they need. And at the end of the day, that approach has worked really well for us, and we've seen some switches out of CRB into SBS add a saving for the customer and also a benefit for us.

但很清楚的是，它們正在賺取現金、也在市場上運作，提供我們所需的品質與服務，並沒有對我們造成任何拖累。所以我想，如我所說，我們希望為客戶提供完整的產品組合，也就是CRB、SBS、CUK，而這個做法在過去6個月的觀察中運作得非常好。提供客戶所需要的東西。而且歸根結底，這個做法對我們非常有效；我們也看到一些從CRB轉換到SBS的案例，既為客戶帶來節省，也讓我們受益。

And you remember, Mike, as well, this time last year, we were closing St. Paul, that CRB mill to kind of optimize and tighten that system anyway internally.

而且你也記得，Mike，就在去年這個時候，我們正在關閉聖保羅（St. Paul）那座CRB紙板廠，以便在內部優化並收緊那套系統。

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

Philip Ng，Jefferies。

Tony, I apologize. I had some technical issues, so I may have missed some of this. I guess big picture, when you think about North America and you've always kind of opine on your business being packaging at its core. And certainly, supply-demand is very tight right now, and we're seeing good price momentum. How do you kind of balance that out, right?

Tony，不好意思。我遇到一些技術問題，所以可能漏聽了一部分。我想從大方向來看，當你思考北美時，你一直認為你們的業務核心是包裝。而且目前供需非常緊，價格動能也不錯。你要如何在這之間取得平衡呢？

I mean, the industry is taking price and supply demand is very tight. There's elements in terms of packaging and does this attract more capacity? Like from a philosophy standpoint, how are you thinking about this bigger picture in the longer term?

我的意思是，整個產業都在漲價，而供需非常緊。在包裝方面也有一些因素：這是否會吸引更多產能進入？從理念／哲學的角度，你如何在更長期的大局下看待這件事？

Yes, Philip, as you know, we are a company committed to profit centers in all aspects of our business. So our box plants have to absorb -- well, first of all, we, as a company, have to absorb all the cost inputs that we're getting then we have to pass those cost inputs into our paper system and ultimately into our box system.

是的，Philip，如你所知，我們是一家在業務各個面向都致力於「利潤中心」（profit centers）的公司。因此，我們的紙箱廠必須吸收——嗯，首先，我們作為一家公司，必須吸收我們所面臨的所有成本投入，接著我們必須把這些成本投入傳導到我們的紙張系統，最終再傳導到我們的紙箱系統。

And each one has to make a return -- each of our systems have to make a return because -- otherwise, they're not economically viable. And I always look at it like this, if you're an independent box maker and there are plenty out there, there's obviously not a -- it depends on the market you're in, but if you're an independent box maker, you must make a return on the paper price that's in the market. And so the same holds true for our box facilities if the paper price goes up because of supply/demand or the paper price goes up because it's been forced up because of cost inputs, and we make decent returns in our paper system ultimately.

而且每一個環節都必須產生報酬——我們的每一套系統都必須產生報酬，因為——否則在經濟上就不可行。我一直這樣看：如果你是一家獨立紙箱製造商，市場上有很多這樣的公司，當然——這取決於你所在的市場——但如果你是獨立紙箱製造商，你必須在市場上的紙價之下仍能賺到報酬。因此同樣的道理也適用於我們的紙箱工廠：如果紙價因供需而上漲，或紙價因成本投入被迫上漲，而我們的紙張系統最終能取得不錯的報酬。

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't make decent returns in our box system because there's an independent market out there that is buying paper exactly the same price as we are transferring to our box system at, and they have to make a return to.

這並不代表我們的紙箱系統就不該取得不錯的報酬，因為市場上有一個獨立市場，他們買紙的價格，與我們轉移到自家紙箱系統的內部移轉價格完全一樣，而他們也必須賺到報酬。

Otherwise, I can't evaluate where to put capital. And so we have been religious really about how we think about our business. And so our converting operations need to be commercial. What we bring -- as you know, Philip is all of the knowledge of packaging all over the world into our system. And then if we have the owner operator at the packaging plant who's really good what he does, he brings that into his plant.

否則，我就無法評估資本應該投放在哪裡。因此，我們在思考業務方式上一直非常嚴謹、近乎一絲不苟。所以我們的加工（converting）營運必須具備商業性。如你所知，Philip，我們帶進系統的是全球各地包裝的所有知識。然後如果包裝廠裡有一位非常擅長自己工作的業主經營者（owner operator），他就把那套能力帶進他的工廠。

And then he offers that to his customers, which can be very considerable savings for our customers by packaging differently. And that's what we continue to offer to our customer base globally. And that's what's worked. That's why if you look at our European system, yes, we're in the low period right now because we've absorbed cost. We're starting to push through paper prices.

接著他把這些提供給他的客戶，透過不同的包裝方式，能為客戶帶來非常可觀的節省。而這正是我們持續在全球客戶基礎上提供的價值。而這也一直有效。所以如果你看我們的歐洲系統，是的，我們現在處於低點，因為我們吸收了成本。我們正開始推動紙價上調。

And then ultimately, we get into box prices. And we have effectively, if everything stood still, we'd have 2 profitable systems offering innovative packaging for our customers. And that's our business model, and that's what's worked for us over 90-plus years.

然後最終會反映到紙箱價格。而且實際上，如果一切都維持不變，我們會有兩套獲利的系統，為客戶提供創新包裝。這就是我們的商業模式，也是我們90多年來一直成功的原因。

Yes. So, Phil, I think within the -- I think I heard that the idea that the latest round of kind of price increases and the price environment might lead to incremental capacity entering the market. I think I think I sort of go back to that sort of basic point around returns and return on capital because, as you know, on average, the cost to do an ending in North America has increased significantly in the last number of years.

是的。所以，Phil，我想在——我想我聽到的意思是，最近這一輪的漲價以及目前的價格環境，可能會導致額外產能進入市場。我想我會回到那個基本點：報酬與資本報酬率（return on capital），因為如你所知，平均而言，過去幾年在北美做一個「ending」（應指新增產能／新增項目）的成本已顯著上升。

So if you do decide to bring capacity into the market, it's going to be a higher cost you might think, and takes time. In reality, you don't -- you can't bring in capacity today or tomorrow. It takes 2, 3 years to get to port a meaningful kind of ramp-up phase. So I think yes, the current price environment could be attractive for people, but I'd equally say that's got to be asked about the amount of capital that you need to put into the market to kind of ever return that's acceptable over the longer term.

所以如果你決定把產能帶進市場，成本會比你想像的更高，而且需要時間。實際上，你不可能今天或明天就把產能加進來。要進入一個有意義的爬坡（ramp-up）階段，需要2到3年。所以我想，是的，當前的價格環境可能對一些人有吸引力，但我同樣會說，必須同時考量你需要投入多少資本到市場，才能在更長期取得可接受的回報。

That's really helpful color. And it's a perfect segue guys. I think from a supply-demand pricing on the paper side, clearly, we there's industry data we're seeing price momentum. I think Tony coming in when you guys acquired WestRock out of the gates, the real opportunity was getting a proper return as you kind of alluded just now on the bauxite and converting side in bottom slicing, your less profitable business.

這些觀察非常有幫助。而且這正好是個完美的銜接，各位。我認為從紙張端的供需與定價來看，很明顯，我們從產業數據看到價格動能。我想 Tony，當你們一開始收購 WestRock 時，真正的機會是如你剛才提到的，在鋁土礦與轉換端、在底部切割那些獲利較差的業務上，取得合理的報酬。

Can you kind of give us some perspective as we look out to '27, where are you in that transition in terms of innings, at least from a baseball analogy in terms of getting your returns to margins, pricing on the converting side in good spot and your mix of customers? Because I think you started flipping perhaps a richer mix as we kind of exit this year. But just give us a little update on where you kind of shake out on that front.

能否請你從展望到 2027 年的角度，給我們一些看法：就像用棒球比喻，你們在這個轉型上大概進行到第幾局？至少在把報酬拉回到應有的毛利/利潤率、轉換端定價回到好的位置，以及客戶組合方面。因為我認為你們在今年接近尾聲時，可能開始轉向更高價值的組合。但請簡單更新一下，你們在這方面目前大概進展到哪裡。

Yes. I actually like to use the baseball analogy. I'd say we're somewhere between first and second base. I think we're not -- we're off first base, and we're heading towards second and we'll get the second and then will be safe on second and then we'll move on to third and then fourth in the next couple of years. I think it's really -- it's amazing to me to see the considerable progress we've made in many of our facilities.

是的。我其實也喜歡用棒球的比喻。我會說我們大概介於一壘和二壘之間。我想我們不是——我們已經離開一壘，正朝二壘前進；接著會到二壘、在二壘安全上壘，然後在接下來幾年再往三壘、再到本壘。對我來說，看到我們在許多廠區取得的顯著進展，真的很令人驚訝。

I think we're down to again, it's a little bit difficult to say how many loss makers we are because of the movements in paper prices. But if you said what's the number of loss makers that we have that we're still worried about is probably around 20 of which, for sure, we're going to solve 10 of them. And then the other 5, we'll just have to think -- see how they do over the next period of time, depending on the market, depending on the mix. But so we've come down from 40-plus -- how many?

我想我們現在又回到——要說我們還有多少虧損單位其實有點難，因為紙價在波動。但如果你問：我們仍然擔心、需要解決的虧損單位大概有多少？可能大約 20 個，其中我們確定會解決 10 個。另外 5 個，我們就得再觀察——看它們在接下來一段時間的表現，取決於市場、取決於產品/客戶組合。不過我們已經從 40 多個降下來——多少來著？

80.

80。

80 loss makers at the beginning, but -- so we're really doing well. But then getting to breakeven is one thing and then going from breakeven to 8% or 9%, is another. And so it's a journey, and as I say, somewhere between first and second. But really, I'm really happy with the teams and how they're embracing the new culture and the leadership. But it's not perfect everywhere, obviously.

一開始有 80 個虧損單位，但——所以我們真的做得很好。但達到損益兩平是一回事，從損益兩平再提升到 8% 或 9% 又是另一回事。所以這是一段旅程；如我所說，大概介於一壘和二壘之間。不過我對團隊以及他們如何擁抱新的文化與領導方式感到非常滿意。但顯然不是每個地方都完美。

And we continue to bring in new people. And what I'm -- one of the things I'm really happy about is we're continuing to attract real talent into the business, which is the sign of a winning team, not a losing team.

而且我們持續引進新的人才。我非常高興的一點是，我們持續吸引真正的人才加入這個事業，這是贏家團隊的象徵，而不是輸家團隊。

Just from a contract standpoint, you could solve for 10, maybe like 5 to 10 of those customers are loss making. What's the total basis? Is it 100? Is it 90? Just want to make -- or 200, I guess, just to make sure we understand what part of your business potentially could still be a little more challenged in your product portfolio?

就合約的角度，你們可以解決其中 10 個，可能像是那裡面有 5 到 10 個客戶是虧損的。那總基數是多少？是 100 嗎？是 90 嗎？或者我猜是 200？我只是想確認我們理解：你們業務中哪一部分、在產品組合裡，可能仍然會比較具挑戰性？

It's 10 out of 100.

是 100 個裡面的 10 個。

Okay. All right. That's helpful.

好的。好。這很有幫助。

And in Europe, we have 3 or 4 that we look at and then in in consumer, there's 1 or 2. So -- and in Latin America, there's practically none. So that's on the converting side. But that doesn't mean Philip that they're all where they need to be, even the ones that are positive. They need to be -- we've got some great box plants, and we've got some not of great box plants.

在歐洲，我們有 3 或 4 個會特別關注；在民生消費品（consumer）那邊，有 1 或 2 個。所以——而在拉丁美洲，幾乎沒有。這些是轉換端的情況。但 Philip，這不代表它們都已經達到應有水準，即使是那些已經轉正的。它們仍需要——我們有一些很棒的紙箱廠，也有一些不那麼好的紙箱廠。

And those not a great box plants need to improve as well. So it's a continual -- it's a continual work by the team over there, led by Dan and Rick and Nikkiso -- and of course, Laurent.

而那些不那麼好的紙箱廠也需要改善。所以這是那邊團隊持續性的工作，由 Dan、Rick、Nikkiso——當然還有 Laurent——帶領。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的 George Staphos。

Actually, I wanted to pick up on that last line of question from Phil. To the extent that you can comment, when we look at the margin in North America, it was 13.3% 1Q, it was 14.8% in 2Q. So good progress there. How much of that to the extent you can share was improvement in margin in the North American box system margin. Said differently, if we go back to the baseball discussion, you just rounded first base.

其實我想延續 Phil 最後那一段問題。在你們可以評論的範圍內，當我們看北美的利潤率，第一季是 13.3%，第二季是 14.8%。所以進展不錯。在你能分享的程度下，其中有多少是北美紙箱系統（box system）利潤率改善所帶來的？換句話說，如果回到棒球的討論，你剛剛繞過一壘。

You're trying to get to high single digits. Would North American box be somewhere around 3%, 4% and margin at the present time? And then I had a quick follow-on.

你們想要達到高個位數的利潤率。那北美紙箱業務目前的利潤率大概會是在 3%、4% 左右嗎？然後我還有一個簡短的追問。

Yes. You're entirely right. We've got -- we're around 3%, somewhere between on a static basis without paper in coming in, we've turned it from being heavily loss-making to a small EBITDA positive, somewhere in the 3% to 4% range depending on the month but that obviously will change as we move forward. So yes, you're about right.

是的。你完全說對了。我們——在靜態基礎上、先不把紙價的影響算進來，我們已經把它從嚴重虧損轉為小幅 EBITDA 為正，大概在 3% 到 4% 的區間，視月份而定；但隨著我們往前推進，這當然會改變。所以是的，你的判斷大致正確。

Okay. And then my follow-on -- you might have mentioned it earlier, but I also had some technical difficulties coming in. How much pricing is assumed in your guidance for the year the $100 per tonne that you've announced, is that -- is any of that in your numbers for the 2026? Or is that more of a '27.

好的。那我的追問——你可能先前有提到，但我剛進來時也遇到一些技術問題。你們對今年的財測指引中，假設了多少定價？你們宣布的每噸 100 美元漲價，是否有任何部分已反映在你們 2026 年的數字裡？還是那比較偏向 2027 年？

George, it's Ken here. No, none of that 100 is assumed none that is assumed in the '26 number because by the time it gets implemented, works through the indices and everything else, you're does not a lot last to '26, very much, very much kind of sets a platform foundation for 2027.

George，我是 Ken。沒有，2026 年的數字完全沒有假設那 100（美元/噸）的漲價；因為等到它落地實施、再透過指數等機制傳導後，留給 2026 年的時間不多；它更像是為 2027 年奠定平台與基礎。

Hillary Cacanando, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Hillary Cacanando。

So just going back to the $100 per tonne price increase that was announced yesterday. I'm just trying to understand why your competitors -- so one of your competitors has announced $140, another one announced $80 per tonne. Could you just help us understand whether the differences in pricing reflect a different view of market conditions or a different customer mix or simply different like building market strategy?

我想回到昨天宣布的每噸 100 美元漲價。我想了解的是，為什麼你們的競爭對手——其中一家宣布每噸 140 美元，另一家宣布每噸 80 美元。你能否協助我們理解：這些定價差異是反映對市場狀況的不同看法、不同的客戶組合，還是單純不同的市場策略（例如建立市場的策略）？

Hillary, obviously, we're not going to talk about what our competitors are doing. We just have to consider what we do. And we are -- we have been thinking for the previous couple of weeks that we would be going for an increase, and we did at the net level that we thought was correct. But Ken, do you want to say something?

Hillary，顯然我們不會評論競爭對手在做什麼。我們只需要考量我們自己要做什麼。而我們——在過去幾週一直在思考要進行漲價，最後我們以我們認為正確的淨額水準提出了調漲。不過 Ken，你要補充一下嗎？

Yes. Hillary, I think it's -- really, it's about an inward look, where we see cost inflation in our system, where we see the need to kind of restore margin that we might have given up over that kind of cost inflation, particularly freight across the rest of the year in energy. So really, it's an inward-looking model that takes everything we're doing, balance against cost takeouts and all the programs and the capital we've injected that says that broadly where we think we need to be is at that $100 a tonne in terms of output pricing to kind of get us back to where we need to be.

好的。Hillary，我認為這真的關乎向內檢視：我們在系統中看到成本通膨、看到需要把因成本通膨而可能讓出的利潤率修復回來，特別是今年剩餘期間的運費與能源。所以這基本上是一個向內看的模型，把我們正在做的一切，與成本削減、各項方案以及我們投入的資本做平衡，並得出結論：就產出端定價而言，我們大致需要每噸 100 美元，才能讓我們回到應有的水準。

Okay. Got it. And then as a follow-up, obviously, the containerboard market looks like it's getting really tight and the pricing momentum is building, but we also saw a price increase in the SBS market. July, and I think you also announced the price increase effective August. So are those prices in the SBS market driven by more from rising input costs?

好的。了解。接著追問一下，顯然箱板紙市場看起來正變得非常吃緊，價格動能也在增強，但我們也看到SBS市場出現了漲價。在7月，而且我想你們也宣布了8月生效的漲價。那麼，SBS市場的這些價格是更多由投入成本上升所驅動嗎？

Or are you seeing underlying market conditions improve as well through higher demand or customer conversion or industry rationalization?

還是你們也看到基本面市場狀況改善，例如需求增加、客戶轉換或產業理性化？

Yes. The SBS market is much better than it was at this time last year. A lot of the work that we've done over the last 18 months in attracting new business into our SBS system is working, and there are some quite exciting new grades that we're bringing into SBS as well as discussed before, our agnostic approach to grades. So we're able to offer customers SBS instead of CRB or sometimes instead of CUK. But basically, the market is much better.

是的。SBS市場比去年這個時候好得多。我們在過去18個月為吸引新業務進入我們SBS體系所做的大量工作正在奏效，而且我們也正把一些相當令人振奮的新紙種導入SBS；如先前討論過的，我們對紙種採取不設限（agnostic）的策略。因此，我們能夠向客戶提供SBS，而不是CRB，或有時候不是CUK。但基本上，市場確實好很多。

But you do have to remember, Hillary, that the market actually went down at the end of last year.

但你必須記得，Hillary，市場其實在去年年底下滑了。

And so this isn't about price increases, this is about price recovery. And I think that we need a price recovery in this grade when it went down, and we're in a sold-out position. So of course, we've announced the increases to reflect that.

所以這不是在談漲價，而是在談價格回復。我認為這個等級在價格下滑之後需要回復，而我們目前是滿載售罄的狀態。因此，當然我們宣布調漲以反映這一點。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub，Seaport Research Partners。

First, just one quick clarification. On SBS, on the increase, I think you sent out July 10. So that was before Pulp and Paper Week had reflected anything, but I assume that is a second increase. I just wanted to confirm that first.

首先，快速釐清一點。關於SBS的調漲，我想你們是在7月10日發出的。所以那是在《Pulp and Paper Week》反映任何變動之前，但我推測那是第二次調漲。我只是想先確認這點。

Yes, market is yes.

是的，市場是的。

It's not reflected in Pulp and Paper Week, yet. Obviously, Mark, given the generally longer lag periods for those grades, it really won't be effective. Assuming that pulp and paper puts it in, it really won't be effective until the start of next year -- into our end customers.

它還沒有反映在《Pulp and Paper Week》上。顯然，Mark，考量到那些等級通常有較長的滯後期，它實際上不會生效。假設紙漿與紙業週刊把它刊登進去，對我們終端客戶而言，真正生效也要到明年年初——也就是進入我們的終端客戶端。

Right. And then just second on EMEA and where we are in terms of passing through higher containerboard prices into boxes because whereas we saw the nice progress in North America 1Q to 2Q. EMEA, we were actually down on the margins because, as you said, the costs hit us first. If we were to kind of hold things static where they are today, but have those prices roll through into boxes. Can you give us a flavor as to where the EMEA margin would be coming out, say, towards the end of this year, early next year?

了解。第二個問題是關於EMEA，以及我們在把較高的箱板紙價格轉嫁到紙箱端的進度。因為我們看到北美從第一季到第二季有不錯的進展。但EMEA的利潤率其實下滑了，因為如你所說，成本先打到我們。如果我們大致維持目前的狀態不變，但讓這些價格逐步反映到紙箱端。你能否讓我們大概了解一下，EMEA的利潤率到今年底、明年初大概會落在什麼水準？

Obviously, a lot depends on the cost mark, but let me just say that we have announced an EUR80 a ton increase to our customers and recycle board over the last couple of days. So we expect to see that implemented as we go through September. And that reflects the higher -- significant higher energy costs and other costs that we've had in the European sphere over the last 2 or 3 months.

顯然，很多取決於成本，Mark，但我先說，我們在過去幾天已向客戶宣布回收板紙每噸上調80歐元。因此，我們預期在9月推進過程中會看到這項調漲落實。這反映了過去2到3個月在歐洲地區我們面臨的更高——顯著更高的能源成本及其他成本。

But maybe I'll just put it into the context that our European business is a tremendously good business with people who've been through this kind of cycle before. And if you look at the last cycle, where we are a better company today than we were then because of their investments, because of our efficiency, our margins were in the 18-plus percent level.

但也許我把它放在一個脈絡裡：我們的歐洲業務是一個非常優質的業務，團隊也經歷過這類週期。如果你看上一個週期，我們今天比當時更強，因為他們的投資、因為我們的效率提升，我們的利潤率曾在18%以上的水準。

And there's no reason why given a static state that we won't get back to those levels at some future date. Whether that's first quarter, second quarter of next year, I don't know. But clearly, our opportunity is to grow from these relatively low margins that we have, albeit that they are way outperforming the industry from what we've seen, that we believe that those are the kind of margins that we can get back to.

在靜態情境下，沒有理由我們未來某個時間點不能回到那些水準。至於是明年第一季、第二季，我不確定。但很明顯，我們的機會是從目前相對偏低的利潤率往上提升；儘管就我們所見，它們已大幅優於產業水準，我們相信我們可以回到那樣的利潤率。

Perfect. I appreciate that. And I just wanted to confirm that we also have the first EUR100 increase that hasn't really flowed through into boxes yet in Europe very much as well. Is that correct?

很好。謝謝你的說明。我也想確認一下，我們在歐洲還有第一波每噸100歐元的調漲，實際上也還沒有很大程度反映到紙箱端。這樣理解正確嗎？

That's correct. Yes. I mean our business is always on the way up and way down a lag business. Our box business, it depends on the customer you have. But very few, but some customers are year-to-year contracts.

正確。是的。我的意思是，我們的業務不論上行或下行，本質上都是有滯後的。紙箱業務取決於你面對的客戶。但很少數、但確實有一些客戶是按年度合約。

Some customers are 6 months. We have been shortening contracts to be 3 months. But by the time by the time it gets published and then 3 months, it's really 4 months for most of the larger index customers. And so -- but equally, when the prices move down, especially for grade that's as volatile as recycled paper, then clearly, you hold on to the margin that you've recovered.

有些客戶是6個月。我們一直在把合約縮短到3個月。但從發布到再加上3個月，對多數較大的指數型客戶而言，實際上是4個月。因此——但同樣地，當價格下行時，特別是像回收紙這種波動很大的等級，那麼很明顯，你會保住你已經回復的利潤。

And also, it's important to note that when the paper price moves, it's most of the time, not just paper price, there's some inflationary cost driven into that as well.

另外，很重要的一點是，當紙價變動時，多數時候不只是紙價，通常也會有一些由通膨成本所帶動的因素一併反映在其中。

Right. And maybe one just last one. And so up until that, I think the contention has been -- the price increases in Europe have largely been cost reactive. How we should be interpreting these increases, too? Or is there something like in North America, it certainly supply demand as well.

了解。最後再問一個。到目前為止，我想市場上的看法是——歐洲的漲價大多是對成本的反應。我們也應該用同樣方式來解讀這些調漲嗎？還是說像北美一樣，這裡也有供需因素？

In Europe, is any of that in being introduced into this equation? Or is it still really cost reactive?

在歐洲，這個方程式裡是否也開始引入一些供需因素？還是仍然主要是成本驅動的反應？

It depends on the grade, but I would say that in recycled paper is more related to cost when it's related to kraftliner, it's related to supply-demand and cost.

這取決於紙種，但我會說回收紙更多與成本相關；而若是牛皮紙面紙（kraftliner），則同時與供需以及成本相關。

Did you announce on kraftliner as well or just recycle?

你們也宣布了kraftliner的調漲嗎，還是只有回收紙？

We did not, not yet.

我們沒有，還沒有。

Detlef Winckelmann, JPMorgan.

Detlef Winckelmann，JPMorgan。

Maybe if I could just start quickly on that 8.5 million tonnes that you've got in North America. My understanding is roughly 1/4 of that won't be exposed to domestic price increases that we've seen in linerboard over the last call it year-to-date and potentially another one going forward. How should we be thinking about supply demand, what's driving prices in that other, call it, 2 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes that's Mexican export volumes, please?

也許我先快速從你們在北美的850萬噸產能談起。我的理解是，其中大約四分之一不會暴露在我們過去（大概）年初至今在面紙（linerboard）看到的國內漲價之下，且未來可能還會再有一波。那麼對於另外那部分（大概）200萬噸到250萬噸、屬於墨西哥出口量的供需情況，我們應該如何理解？是什麼在推動那部分的價格，麻煩說明。

Detlef as well as that, you have some sack paper in there and you have some bag paper in there. So those are all they're all going up as well as the kraftliner and containerboard piece of our business. So one of the things that we have to get out of is some of the export tons that we have taken. So we're behind delivering on those.

Detlef，除此之外，你那裡面還包含一些牛皮紙袋紙（sack paper）以及一些袋用紙（bag paper）。所以這些也都在上漲，連同我們業務中的kraftliner與箱板紙部分一起。因此，我們必須做的一件事，是把我們承接的一部分出口噸數降下來。所以我們在交付那些方面是落後的。

But by the end of this year, hopefully, we'll have finished all of our let's call it, low priced tonnage. And we will be applying to the export markets, the same metrics that we see in the domestic markets. Obviously, depending on the market, the pricing will be somewhat different. But basically, those tonnes will be going up in a similar manner over the coming 6 months or so.

但希望在今年年底前，我們將完成所有我們所謂的低價噸位。而且我們會把在國內市場看到的相同衡量指標，套用到出口市場。顯然，視不同市場而定，定價會有所不同。但基本上，這些噸位在未來約 6 個月左右也會以類似方式上調。

Okay. Great. And then maybe if I can do one more. I mean, presumably, going into kind of 12, 18 months, your box volumes are hopefully going to grow above market. I mean, I think you mentioned kind of back end of Q3, the whole of Q4 kind of growing above market.

好的。很好。然後如果我可以再問一個。我的意思是，推進到大概 12 到 18 個月，你們的箱板紙出貨量希望能高於市場成長。我想你提到大概第三季末、整個第四季的成長都會高於市場。

Can I then assume that export volumes probably shrink can you use more of that capacity internally, domestically display and box plants and that kind of mix changes going forward?

那我是否可以假設，出口量可能會縮減，因為你們會把更多產能用在內部、國內的展示盒與箱廠，且未來產品組合會有所變化？

Yes, that's 100% true. That -- I mean, obviously, the local domestic price is higher than the export price at this moment in time, but we have to keep evaluating that. But yes, as a fundamental rule, we believe in integration in our own system, to ensure that we use our own tonnage within our system. But obviously, the system that we've inherited is much bigger than just that.

是的，這百分之百正確。也就是說——我的意思是，顯然此刻本地國內價格高於出口價格，但我們必須持續評估。但沒錯，作為一項基本原則，我們相信在自有系統內進行整合，以確保我們在系統內使用自有噸位。但顯然，我們承接下來的系統規模遠不止如此。

So we continue to be in the export market and committed to the export market is important because probably some of our export customers are listening to this. We are still committed to the export market. But obviously, we want to make sure that we get paid the correct amount when we deliver into the export market, which will happen going forward. Because as you know, a lot of the supply-demand issues are export people are pulling away from the export market. So clearly, that creates an opportunity for us.

因此我們仍會持續參與出口市場，並且致力於出口市場——這點很重要，因為可能有些出口客戶正在收聽。我們仍然致力於出口市場。但顯然，我們要確保在交付到出口市場時能收到正確的價格，而這在未來會發生。因為如你所知，許多供需問題在於出口端的人正在退出出口市場。所以很明顯，這為我們創造了機會。

at a proper price.

以合理的價格。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

Anthony Pettinari，花旗。

Tony, I was wondering if you could talk about your internal inventory levels given the mill system is sold out. Is there any tightness or risk there? Do you need to build inventories in any region or grade? And then just as we look at underlying demand for 2Q, did you see any prebuy in 2Q in containerboard or boxboard, given there are some hikes in the market?

Tony，我想請你談談在造紙廠系統已滿載、售罄的情況下，你們內部庫存水位如何。那裡是否有任何吃緊或風險？你們是否需要在任何地區或任何等級建立庫存？另外，當我們看第二季的基礎需求時，鑑於市場上有一些漲價，你們是否在第二季看到瓦楞原紙或箱板紙有任何提前採購（prebuy）？

Our inventory level is -- a very good question. We sometimes have inventory in the wrong place, and we sometimes have inventory are the wrong grade. We're still very early into this, Anthony. And so our whole logistics system is still under a rate of change. And yes, the answer to your question is we do have some inefficiencies still because our stock levels are not necessarily where we want them to be.

我們的庫存水位——這是個非常好的問題。我們有時候庫存在錯的地方，有時候庫存是錯的等級。Anthony，我們現在仍在非常早期階段。因此我們整個物流系統仍處於變動之中。是的，回答你的問題：我們確實仍有一些效率不彰，因為我們的庫存水位不一定在我們希望的位置。

because we don't necessarily have all the right grades and the great optimization program that in a couple of years from now will be, I would say, much, much better because clearly, a lot of A lot of what we bring to the party is making sure that we have the right SKUs in our system and making sure that the paper mills run the right grades of paper that suit those grades of paper in the box stands convert those grades.

因為我們不一定具備所有正確的等級，而等級最佳化計畫在幾年後我會說會好很多、很多，因為很明顯，我們帶來的很大一部分價值在於確保系統內有正確的 SKU，並確保紙廠生產正確等級的紙，去符合那些等級的紙在箱廠端的轉換需求。

So there's still a lot of work to do. And as such, there are some inventory issues that we have to use the wrong papers from time to time. But so far, so good and talking to the team as recently as yesterday, we are managing with some issues, but we are managing. So so far, so good.

所以仍有很多工作要做。因此，我們確實有一些庫存問題，導致我們偶爾不得不使用不合適的紙種。但到目前為止一切還好；我甚至就在昨天才和團隊討論，我們確實有一些問題要處理，但我們正在管理中。所以到目前為止，一切還好。

With regard to prebuying, I would say that there was very little pre-buying in fact, I would say maybe the opposite. I would say that people did not expect for the market to change so rapidly, and that is why a lot of export orders are unfulfilled still. People were keeping their levels of stock pretty low because they could get paper pretty well when they needed it. And if you remember back to the first quarter, we had a very poor first quarter because of the freezes and all the issues that were happening.

至於提前採購，我會說其實非常少；事實上，我甚至會說可能相反。我會說大家沒有預期市場會變化得這麼快，這也是為什麼很多出口訂單至今仍未履行。人們把庫存水位維持得相當低，因為他們需要時通常都能順利取得紙。而且如果你還記得第一季，因為寒潮冰凍以及各種問題，我們第一季表現非常差。

And I think it's been a bit of a surprise how quickly the effects of the supply demand have been felt in the second half -- second quarter. And as such, nobody would have been prebuying to any great extent, nobody would be prebuying during the -- prior to that. So no prebuying at some logistical issues because of the tightness of the market, but we're managing through it.

我認為供需影響在第二季下半——第二季——被感受到的速度之快，讓人有點意外。因此，沒有人會在很大程度上提前採購，也沒有人會在那之前——在那之前進行提前採購。所以沒有提前採購；有一些因市場吃緊而產生的物流問題，但我們正在設法應對。

I think, Anthony, as well, just from a general point, I think total industry levels for North America, but we're still in the range of 2.5 million tonnes, 2.6 million tonnes. So I think that would have been about 2.8 million tonnes, 2.9 million tonnes as the exit the first quarter. So you can see if there are issues, it's coming out of inventories rather than kind of getting down towards low levels of inventory, still fairly well stocked.

Anthony，我想再補充一點，從整體角度來看，我認為北美整個產業的總庫存水位仍大約在 250 萬噸到 260 萬噸的區間。我想在第一季結束時大約是 280 萬噸到 290 萬噸。所以你可以看到，即使有問題，也是從庫存中消化，而不是降到非常低的庫存水位；整體仍算庫存充足。

Yes. And I think if I could just add one point, Anthony, to your important question is that logistics is playing a hell of a role at the moment. There are some -- especially in the North American market, there are very significant. A costs. I mean we're expecting cost to be $300 million more than we would have anticipated 3 months ago in North America and Europe.

是的。我想如果我可以再補充一點，Anthony，針對你這個重要問題：目前物流扮演了非常大的角色。有一些——尤其在北美市場——非常顯著。A 成本。我的意思是，我們預期北美與歐洲的成本將比我們 3 個月前所預期的多出 3 億美元。

And that's a function not only of the price of diesel, but it's also a function of availability of transportation.

這不僅是柴油價格的因素，也與運輸可得性有關。

And that is creating some issues for delivery on time and things like that. So for sure, logistics is an issue, not only on the cost side but also on the availability side, and that's something that does create some disruption. But as I say, we're managing through it. With some cost, which obviously none of us like the $300 million that we didn't expect. But at the end of the day, that's -- it is what it is, and it's the reason why we need further pricing initiatives in our marketplace because we need to recover these and earn a decent return for our stakeholders.

而這正在造成一些準時交付等方面的問題。所以可以肯定，物流是一個問題，不僅在成本面，也在可得性面，而這確實會帶來一些干擾。但如我所說，我們正在設法應對。當然會有一些成本，而我們都不喜歡這筆我們未預期的 3 億美元。但歸根結底——事情就是如此，這也是為什麼我們在市場上需要進一步的定價措施，因為我們需要回收這些成本，並為我們的利害關係人賺取合理的報酬。

Ioannis Masvoulas, Morgan Stanley.

Ioannis Masvoulas，摩根士丹利。

two questions from my side. The first on cost that you already articulated in some detail. So when I look at the update back in April, the energy headwind was around $220 million. You didn't really change that with today's update. But clearly, there's a big ramp-up in the freight cost.

我這邊有兩個問題。第一個是關於成本，你們已經相當詳細地說明了。所以當我回看 4 月的更新，能源逆風大約是 2.2 億美元。你們在今天的更新中並沒有真正改變這個數字。但很明顯，運費成本大幅攀升。

So the spring update how much of that is purely a function of timing effects? How much is your conservative assessment on freight at this point versus April? And if you can give us a sense on the split by region, especially on the freight side?

所以春季更新中，有多少純粹是時間點效應所致？以目前相較於 4 月，你們對運費的保守評估增加了多少？以及如果可以的話，能否就區域別拆分，特別是在運費這一塊？

Ioannis, it's Ken here. I won't do the split by freight by region because we don't really break out the regions forward quarters like that. But I think it's fair to say at the back end of April, we would have seen freight generally as kind of a headwind, they call it, $50 million year-on-year, and that was at a place if you think about it, where it looked like the Middle East was about to be solved an MOU in place past the piece has been identified and the world seems to be stepping down.

Ioannis，我是 Ken。我不會按地區拆分運費，因為我們並不會像那樣把各地區在未來季度做拆分披露。但我認為可以合理地說，在四月底的時候，我們看到運費整體上算是一個所謂的逆風，同比約 5,000 萬美元；而當時如果你回想一下，情勢看起來像是中東問題即將解決，已有備忘錄（MOU）在位，和平方案已被確認，世界似乎也在降溫。

I think it's interesting if you look at any of the indices that of have come out, you can see a sharp spike towards the back end of May into June. And as we continue in July, primarily on freight, and we clearly saw that heavily through May and June. So it was very much a changed environment, which led to the changed outlook on freight leases now in the position where we kind of see freight at about $300 million headwind year on year. I don't -- I wouldn't necessarily characterize it as either conservative or not.

我覺得有意思的是，如果你看任何已發布的指數，你會看到在五月底到六月出現明顯的急升。而我們進入七月後，主要是在運費方面，我們也清楚看到這點在五月與六月非常明顯。所以環境確實發生了很大變化，導致我們現在對運費租賃的展望也改變；目前我們大致看到運費同比約 3 億美元的逆風。我不會——我不一定會把它形容為保守或不保守。

I think it's our best estimate based on where we see the cost coming out. As Tony said, these are costs that we continue to need to recover given that they seem to remain elevated and not abating.

我認為這是基於我們對成本走勢的判斷所做出的最佳估計。正如 Tony 所說，這些成本我們仍需要回收，因為它們看起來仍維持在高位，並未緩解。

On the energy side, I think back then, we probably would have said about in a range of, call it, $220 million to probably $250 million, it's probably still there thereabouts, we've seen European TTF for GasCo above $60 again last week, back below $58 to $57 this morning. So still very fluid, but we tend to be helped out through this kind of cost backdrop on energy because of our after kind of hedging policy, which we don't use a lot now given the elevated prices, but we continue to have some hedges which come through and help moderate that slightly.

在能源方面，我想當時我們可能會說大約在 2.2 億到 2.5 億美元的區間，現在大概也仍在那個附近；我們看到歐洲 TTF 天然氣（GasCo）上週又回到 60 美元以上，今天早上又回落到 58 到 57 美元以下。所以仍然非常波動，但在這樣的能源成本背景下，我們通常會因為我們的（事後）避險政策而得到一些幫助；在價格高企的情況下我們現在不太大量使用避險，但我們仍有一些避險部位會發揮作用，稍微緩和影響。

But again, as Tony said this here, a lot of that is the reason why we've announced an 80-year a tonne increase or Europe is against the cost backdrop for Europe. So generally, I think where we see the outlook as we've seen is if you think about the simple bridge broadly freight from our initial estimate to where we are now. But the price increases that are announced and the ones that were announced this week should help to overcome that cost increase, particularly as we enter 2027 with Lilian back in '26 more importantly, restore margin as we kind of move through this particular phase.

但同樣地，正如 Tony 在這裡所說，這也是我們宣布歐洲每噸上調 80 歐元的原因之一，因為歐洲面臨這樣的成本背景。所以整體而言，我認為我們對展望的看法是：如果你看一個簡單的橋接，運費大致是從我們最初的估計走到現在的位置。但已宣布的漲價，以及本週宣布的那些，應該有助於抵消這些成本上升，特別是當我們進入 2027 年、以及更重要的是 2026 年 Lilian 回歸時，能在我們度過這個階段的過程中恢復利潤率。

Perfect. That's very useful. And maybe just a second question. On the North American corrugated volumes in Q2, which were somewhat weaker than market expectations. I think on the Q1 call, you talked about April was down 4%.

很好。這非常有幫助。也許再問第二個問題。關於北美第二季的瓦楞紙箱銷量，略低於市場預期。我記得在第一季電話會議上，你提到四月下滑 4%。

My understanding is that May was at similar levels, which implies a weaker June run rate. Can you talk about what drove that? And I think you have already articulated the messaging on Q3, Q4. So it's more around understanding any specific effects that impacted June?

我的理解是五月也在類似水準，這意味著六月的運行率更弱。你能談談是什麼驅動了這個情況嗎？而且我想你已經闡述了對第三季、第四季的訊息。所以更想了解的是：六月是否有任何特定因素造成影響？

To be honest with you, Ioannis, I don't remember what was anything specific. I mean we're talking about small deviations. We -- I would say that the thing to try and keep a focus on is that our -- our acquisition of new customers continues to pace our movement towards having local level responsibility and local level acquisitions of customers continue to pace. We continue to see wins in the marketplace. We actually continue to see customers who have left us want to come back because our quality and services have improved very significantly in just a year.

老實說，Ioannis，我不記得有什麼特別的原因。我的意思是，我們談的是小幅偏差。我會說需要持續聚焦的一點是：我們——我們新客戶的取得仍在推動我們朝向地方層級責任制的轉型，而地方層級的客戶開發也持續在推進。我們持續在市場上看到贏單。事實上，我們也持續看到曾經離開我們的客戶想回來，因為我們的品質與服務在短短一年內已顯著改善。

We're starting to apply the metrics that we have always done in Europe, in North America, and we're seeing very good progress on the operational side.

我們開始把我們在歐洲一直使用的衡量指標套用到北美，而我們在營運面看到非常好的進展。

So I think given the progress that we're making and a small deviation in a small region for agriculture can can make that kind of difference. The overall level of progress is what I see is very positive. And I'm sure that Nicky and our team on the sales side are going to deliver significant wins in the future to get us back to where we need to be.

所以我認為，考量到我們正在取得的進展，以及某個小區域在農業方面的小幅偏差就可能造成那樣的差異。我看到的整體進展水準是非常正面的。我也相信 Nicky 和我們銷售團隊未來會拿下重要的贏單，讓我們回到應有的位置。

This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand the call back to Tony for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回給 Tony，請他做結語。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today. I would say that overall, I'm really happy with how the progress of the integration between Smurfit and WestRock, Smurfit Kappa and WestRock has gone. I think that the company has now got all the teams in place to make this company one of the great companies of the world. Obviously, we continue to be hit by costs that are non expected and a significant cost environment that we are in the process of passing through and have full confidence that we will pass those costs through and we're really setting ourselves up for a better second half and a very good 2027.

謝謝主持人，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我想說，整體而言，我對 Smurfit 與 WestRock、Smurfit Kappa 與 WestRock 之間整合的進展感到非常滿意。我認為公司現在已經把所有團隊都配置到位，讓這家公司成為世界級的偉大企業之一。顯然，我們仍持續受到一些非預期成本的衝擊，且我們正處於一個顯著的成本環境中並正在穿越它；我們完全有信心能把這些成本轉嫁出去，而我們也確實在為更好的下半年以及非常好的 2027 年做好準備。

So thanks for your support. Thanks for your interest, and we look forward to meeting many of you and talking to many of you in the weeks and days and weeks ahead. Thank you all.

所以謝謝你們的支持。謝謝你們的關注，我們期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內，與許多各位見面並交流。謝謝大家。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。