Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2026 Q1 results webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfit Westrock Group VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，感謝各位在線等候。歡迎收聽 Smurfit Westrock 2026 年第一季業績網路直播與電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給 Smurfit Westrock 集團投資人關係副總裁 Ciaran Potts。請開始。

Thanks, Evan. As a reminder, statements in today's press release and presentation and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections.

謝謝你，Evan。提醒各位，今天新聞稿與簡報中的陳述，以及管理層在本次電話會議中的評論，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到風險與不確定性影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期及預測出現重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings as well as those discussed in our investor update presentation. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements. Today's remarks will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures where applicable reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and in the appendix to the accompanying presentation, which are available at investors.smurfitwestrock.com.

這些風險與不確定性包括但不限於：財報新聞稿與我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所識別的因素，以及我們投資人更新簡報中所討論的因素。公司不承擔修訂任何前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的發言亦將在適用情況下提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標；其與最可比 GAAP 指標的調節表已載於今日的財報新聞稿及隨附簡報的附錄中，相關資料可於 investors.smurfitwestrock.com 取得。

In addition, today's remarks include statements of Smurfit WestRock's medium-term financial goals and capital allocation priorities. These goals are aspirational and actual performance may differ, possibly materially, and no guarantees are made that these goals will be met. To ensure that we have time to answer from as many as possible, given time constraints, we'd appreciate if each analyst could limit themselves to two questions.

此外，今天的發言包含 Smurfit WestRock 的中期財務目標與資本配置優先事項。這些目標屬於願景性目標，實際表現可能有所不同，且可能存在重大差異；公司不對達成這些目標作出任何保證。為了在時間限制下盡可能回答更多問題，我們希望每位分析師將提問限制在兩個問題以內。

I'll now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Westrock.

接下來我把時間交給 Smurfit Westrock 執行長 Tony Smurfit。

Thank you, Ciaran, and thank you to all participants for joining us today. I'm joined on the call as usual by my colleague, Ken Bowles, our Executive Vice President and Group CFO. Set against a challenging environment, we delivered a solid first-quarter performance, essentially in line with plan with adjusted EBITDA of $1,076 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%. Our adjusted EBITDA outcome for the period was impacted by weather events that started in January and continued into February, costing approximately $65 million across the group.

謝謝你，Ciaran，也感謝所有與會者今天加入我們。照例與我一同參與電話會議的還有我的同事 Ken Bowles，我們的執行副總裁暨集團財務長（CFO）。在充滿挑戰的環境下，我們交出穩健的第一季表現，基本符合計畫：調整後 EBITDA 為 10.76 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14%。本期調整後 EBITDA 受到自 1 月開始並延續至 2 月的天候事件影響，對集團造成約 6,500 萬美元的成本。

We continue to make progress both internally with our people, our operating model, and our capital plans, and externally where we continue to provide customers with the broadest offering and the widest set of tools and applications. Our recent innovation event in the Netherlands was a clear example of where Smurfit Westrock is truly differentiated from the competition. I'm particularly happy with how the integration and culture of Smurfit Westrock is progressing with excellent networking and people development, which was on display last week in Amsterdam at the aforementioned innovation event.

我們持續在內部（人員、營運模式與資本計畫）以及外部（持續為客戶提供最廣泛的產品組合與最完整的工具與應用）兩方面推進。我們近期在荷蘭舉辦的創新活動，清楚展現 Smurfit Westrock 確實有別於競爭對手。我尤其欣慰的是，Smurfit Westrock 的整合與文化進展良好，跨部門連結與人才發展表現出色；上週在阿姆斯特丹舉行的上述創新活動中已充分展現。

Back in February, we were happy to launch our medium-term plan. That plan demonstrates an accelerated path to growth to 2030 and beyond. The goal of the plan is to deliver significant adjusted EBITDA growth with a CAGR of 7% and margin expansion of over 300 basis points. Consistent delivery against this plan, which is our collective focus will, we believe, realize Smurfit Westrock's true potential. Our scale is a core competitive advantage for Smurfit Westrock and a key reason customers are more and more choosing to partner with us. We think global but act local. Operating across regions allows us to support customers consistently while combining global capability with strong local execution.

回到 2 月，我們很高興發布中期計畫。該計畫展示了加速成長的路徑，延伸至 2030 年及更長遠。計畫目標是實現顯著的調整後 EBITDA 成長，年複合成長率（CAGR）達 7%，並將利潤率擴張超過 300 個基點。我們相信，持續依計畫落實交付（這也是我們共同的重點）將能釋放 Smurfit Westrock 的真正潛力。我們的規模是 Smurfit Westrock 的核心競爭優勢，也是客戶愈來愈選擇與我們合作的關鍵原因。我們以全球視野思考，但以在地方式行動。跨區域營運使我們能一致地支援客戶，同時結合全球能力與強而有力的在地執行。

Our footprint enables us to serve our customers seamlessly across geographies, share in best practice, providing security of supply, delivering consistent service levels while remaining both to local markets. Equally, our footprint gives us better visibility across markets, enables optimization of assets and capital deployments.

我們的據點布局使我們能在不同地理區域無縫服務客戶、分享最佳實務、確保供應安全、提供一致的服務水準，同時仍能貼近在地市場。同樣地，我們的布局也讓我們對各市場有更佳的能見度，並能優化資產與資本投放。

In summary, our presence underpins how we compete and how we win, whether that be in corrugated, consumer, bag and box, or any of our other niche businesses. It allows us to support customers across regions, scale innovation quickly, and build deeper, more durable partnerships, supporting our statement that we are the go-to packaging partner of choice locally, regionally, or globally.

總結而言，我們的全球布局支撐了我們如何競爭、如何取勝，無論是在瓦楞包裝、消費品包裝、袋與盒，或任何其他利基業務。它使我們能跨區域支援客戶、快速擴大創新規模，並建立更深、更持久的合作夥伴關係，呼應我們的主張：無論在地、區域或全球，我們都是首選的包裝合作夥伴。

And of course, having so many talented people across the world means better and better innovation, which in the interest of time, we will expand upon the second-quarter results. Now turning to our regions, starting with North America. The quarter delivered adjusted EBITDA of $597 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.3%. This result was heavily impacted by weather issues of approximately $55 million, which primarily occurred in February and downtime costing $74 million, of which approximately half was unplanned.

當然，全球各地擁有眾多優秀人才也意味著創新能力持續提升；基於時間關係，我們將在第二季業績時再進一步說明。接著談各區域表現，先從北美開始。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 5.97 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.3%。此結果受到約 5,500 萬美元的天候問題顯著影響（主要發生在 2 月），以及停機造成 7,400 萬美元成本，其中約一半為非計畫性停機。

The quarter was also characterized by generally tepid demand as consumer confidence remained muted as well as experienced some logistical difficulties in Mexico as a result of local domestic security-related issues. As we begin the second quarter, we are seeing much improved demand with strengthening order books across all grades of both paper and converting products.

本季也呈現整體需求偏弱的特徵，因消費者信心仍然低迷；此外，墨西哥因當地國內治安相關問題而出現一些物流困難。進入第二季初期，我們看到需求明顯改善，紙品與加工產品各等級的訂單簿均呈現走強。

Price increases have been announced for all containerboard grades and some specific consumer grades. We continue our progress to our owner-operator model, and we are seeing the success and benefits of our approach, both in terms of recruitment of talent and motivation within the company.

我們已宣布對所有箱板紙（containerboard）等級以及部分特定消費品等級進行漲價。我們持續推進自有營運者（owner-operator）模式，並已看到此方法的成功與效益，無論在人才招募或公司內部動能提升方面皆是如此。

During the quarter, we entered into contracts with over 600 new corrugated customers across a wide range of sectors and segments. This has continued at a stronger pace in April. These customer wins offset in part, less economic business, and we expect to see growth during the latter part of the year as we onboard our new partners. Bringing together our global knowledge in packaging is having a material benefit as customers see the suite of our capabilities through our experience centers, which are currently being rolled out in the United States.

本季期間，我們與超過 600 家新的瓦楞客戶簽訂合約，涵蓋廣泛的產業與細分市場。4 月以來，這一趨勢以更快速度延續。這些新客戶的贏單在一定程度上抵消了較不具經濟效益的業務，我們預期在下半年隨著新合作夥伴導入完成，將看到成長。整合我們在包裝領域的全球知識正帶來實質效益；客戶透過我們的體驗中心看見我們的能力組合，而這些體驗中心目前正於美國推廣落地。

In our consumer business, we've seen great success in our great agnostic approach with over 250 million converted or in the process of being converted to our SBS and CUK offering. Finally, we continue to invest in our system for growth and cost takeout with a number of new and exciting projects being implemented across the region as well as continually optimizing the system through considered capacity rationalization decisions.

在消費品業務方面，我們的「材質中立（agnostic）」策略取得很大成功，已有超過 2.5 億（單位）完成轉換或正在轉換至我們的 SBS 與 CUK 產品組合。最後，我們持續投資於成長與降本的系統，在整個區域推動多項全新且令人振奮的專案，同時也透過審慎的產能合理化決策，持續優化整體系統。

Turning now to our EMEA and APAC business, which delivered a very solid quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of $421 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.2%. We are significantly outperforming our peers as our innovation platform delivers great value to our customers, whether they're looking to grow, reduce costs, or be more sustainable. With our network of 34 innovation centers across the globe, that innovation offering and sharing of best practice is something our entire global customer base is now benefiting from.

接著談我們的 EMEA 與 APAC 業務，本季表現非常穩健，調整後 EBITDA 為 4.21 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.2%。我們明顯優於同業，因為我們的創新平台為客戶帶來很高價值，無論客戶是希望成長、降低成本或提升永續性。憑藉遍布全球的 34 座創新中心網絡，這套創新方案與最佳實務分享，正讓我們整個全球客戶群受益。

We've just recently hosted over 200 customers at the sustainability and innovation event in Amsterdam, where we demonstrated our industry-leading suite of tools, which help customers win in their marketplace and ease the burden of compliance with regulatory issues. Our optimal improvements continue in all businesses as we invest for cost takeout and selectively in growth regions.

我們最近在阿姆斯特丹舉辦了永續與創新活動，接待了超過200位客戶，並展示了我們業界領先的一整套工具，協助客戶在其市場中勝出，同時減輕因法規合規議題所帶來的負擔。隨著我們投資於成本削減，並在成長區域進行選擇性投資，我們在所有業務中持續推動最佳化改善。

We also continue to optimize our system with the regrettable but necessary recent announcements of the consultations of closure of four smaller converting operations in the UK and the Netherlands, and one paper mill operation in the UK, which is a capacity of approximately 200,000 tonnes per year. While we have not been affected in the last quarter by higher energy prices, primarily as a result of our hedging policy, we expect to see the effect of energy price rises in the following quarters.

我們也持續優化系統；近期我們遺憾但必要地宣布，就關閉英國與荷蘭四個較小的加工（converting）營運據點，以及英國一座紙廠營運展開諮詢程序，該產能約為每年200,000公噸。雖然上一季我們未受到能源價格上漲的影響，主要得益於我們的避險政策，但我們預期在接下來的幾季將會看到能源價格上升的影響。

As a result of this and a generally much better demand environment, we have implemented higher recycled paper prices of EUR100 per tonne as well as increases in kraftliner and some specialty grades, which we expect to result in higher prices for our converting products as we progress through this year. Now turning to Latin American business, which again performed strongly with an adjusted EBITDA of $109 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 20%.

因此，加上整體需求環境明顯改善，我們已將再生紙價格上調每公噸100歐元，並提高了牛皮紙板（kraftliner）及部分特殊紙品等級的價格；我們預期隨著今年推進，這將帶動我們加工產品的價格走高。接著談拉丁美洲業務，其表現再次強勁，調整後EBITDA為1.09億美元，調整後EBITDA利潤率超過20%。

This performance once again shows the strength of our operations in LatAm, where we are the only pan-regional player. It is also important to remember that as the truly global player in paper-based packaging, our LatAm operations play a key role in supplying both our global and regional customers.

這項表現再次展現我們在拉丁美洲營運的實力，我們是該區唯一的泛區域（pan-regional）業者。同樣重要的是要記得，作為真正的全球紙基包裝業者，我們的拉丁美洲營運在供應全球與區域客戶方面扮演關鍵角色。

During the quarter, we completed a corrugated box plant acquisition in Ecuador, in line with the objective of building on our position in the region through both organic growth and selective acquisitions. This acquisition is also beneficial beyond the region as we will integrate paper from our North American mill system.

本季期間，我們完成了在厄瓜多爾收購一座瓦楞紙箱工廠，符合我們透過有機成長與選擇性併購來鞏固區域地位的目標。這項收購的效益也不僅限於該區，因為我們將整合來自北美紙廠系統的紙張供應。

Our business in our two larger countries, Brazil and Colombia, performed well with good volume growth and further significant growth opportunities. Business conditions remain good across the region with generally tightening markets and improved pricing.

我們在兩個較大的國家——巴西與哥倫比亞——的業務表現良好，出貨量成長穩健，且仍有進一步顯著的成長機會。整個區域的經營環境依然良好，市場普遍趨緊，定價也有所改善。

As I said at the outset, our medium-term plan sets out specific targets and performance measures through 2030. By 2030, we aim to deliver $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%. Over the life of the plan, we aim to generate $14 billion of discretionary free cash flow providing us with significant financial flexibility to capitalize on growth opportunities within our business, further strengthen our balance sheet, and increase capital returns for our shareholders. Quite simply, our objective is to unlock the full potential of our North American business; continued to outperform in EU, EMEA, and APAC; and continue to deliver dynamic growth and strong margins in Latin America.

如我在開場時所說，我們的中期計畫訂定了至2030年的具體目標與績效衡量指標。到2030年，我們目標達成70億美元的調整後EBITDA，以及集團調整後EBITDA利潤率19%。在計畫期間內，我們目標創造140億美元的可支配自由現金流，為我們提供顯著的財務彈性，以把握業務內的成長機會、進一步強化資產負債表，並提高對股東的資本回饋。簡而言之，我們的目標是釋放北美業務的全部潛力；在歐盟、EMEA與APAC持續跑贏同業；並在拉丁美洲持續實現動態成長與強勁利潤率。

Finally, before I wrap up, you would have noticed our decision to carry out a review of our listing on the London Stock Exchange. The outcome of that review may result in us delisting from the LSE. The review is focused on ensuring our listing structure reflects where our shares trade while reducing complexity and ongoing costs. We anticipate completing this work during May, and we'll update shareholders when the review concludes.

最後，在我結束之前，各位應該已注意到我們決定對倫敦證券交易所的上市地位進行檢討。該檢討的結果可能導致我們自倫交所下市。本次檢討聚焦於確保我們的上市架構能反映股份實際交易所在地，同時降低複雜度與持續性成本。我們預期在5月完成這項工作，並在檢討結束時向股東更新。

On industry outlook specifically, in February, we said that the year had begun with a generally better industry environment, although impacted by weather and more recently, global tensions. Today, we see a stronger and generally better industry outlook. Assuming these conditions prevail, we expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA for the quarter two of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion, and I'm pleased to reaffirm our previous expectation of an adjusted EBITDA outcome for the full-year 2026 of between $5 billion and $5.3 billion. And with that, operator, I will hand it over for questions.

就產業展望而言，我們在2月曾表示，今年開局整體產業環境普遍較佳，但受到天候以及近期全球緊張局勢的影響。今天，我們看到更強勁且整體更佳的產業展望。假設這些條件持續，我們預期第二季調整後EBITDA介於11億至12億美元之間；同時，我很高興重申我們先前對2026全年調整後EBITDA的預期，介於50億至53億美元。接下來，接線員，我把時間交給提問。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, BofA securities.

(接線員指示) George Staphos，BofA Securities。

Tony can (inaudible) for details calling here, Reinhardt van der Walt, my colleague in Europe. I just wanted to ask some questions on demand and the interplay with pricing, Tony. So you mentioned that, and we thank you for the detail that roughly half of the outage or downtime in the quarter, North America was unplanned. Can you tell us what implications, if any, you think that means for the mill system as it exists today? And do you think that with all the need to rightly pass forward some of the cost pressures you're seeing that it might be leading to more demand weakness than you'd otherwise like to see either you or for other players in the industry? And then I had a follow-on.

Tony，能否（聽不清）補充細節；這裡是Reinhardt van der Walt，我在歐洲的同事。Tony，我想就需求以及與定價之間的互動問幾個問題。你提到——也謝謝你提供細節——本季約有一半的停機或停產在北美是非計畫性的。你能否談談，這對目前的紙廠系統可能意味著什麼影響（如果有的話）？另外，你是否認為，鑑於你們確實需要把所看到的一些成本壓力適當轉嫁出去，這可能導致需求疲弱程度高於你或產業其他業者原本希望看到的情況？然後我還有一個延伸問題。

Okay. Well, what I would say, George, is in my experience, and unfortunately, I'm a veteran in this business. I've been in the business a long time. And I haven't seen a shift in the whole business demand in a long period of time in practically in my career. We have seen a very strong uptake across really all paper grades with maybe one exception in CRB a little bit. But basically, all paper grades are in effectively sold-out position right now. And that happened really quickly.

好的。George，我想說的是，以我的經驗——不幸的是，我算是這個產業的老兵。我在這個行業很久了。在我幾乎整個職涯中，我都沒有看過整體業務需求在這麼長一段時間後出現這樣的轉變。我們看到幾乎所有紙種的需求都非常強勁，可能只有CRB稍微是個例外。但基本上，所有紙種目前都處於實質上「售罄」的狀態。而且這發生得非常快。

I mean that happens is -- we strengthened up in March, but in April, it's become very strong indeed across everywhere. Now is there some pre-buying due to price increases announced by us and others in the marketplace? That's very possible. But it's not something that we see a lot of. And at some point or another, the capacity that came out of the system has -- over the last 18 months or so is having an effect. And I think this is what we're seeing right now. is that globally speaking, there is strong demand.

我的意思是——我們在3月轉強，但到了4月，各地都變得非常強勁。現在，是否存在因我們以及市場上其他業者宣布漲價而出現的提前採購？這非常有可能。但這並不是我們經常看到的情況。而且在某個時間點，過去約18個月系統中退出的產能已經開始產生影響。我認為這就是我們現在所看到的：從全球角度來看，需求很強。

And obviously, we're buying in Latin America. We're buying in Europe, and we see very much stronger market in practically everything. And even surprising is how our SBS market has strengthened up in the last month. And again, we're in a sold-out position in that grade at the moment.

而且很明顯地，我們在拉丁美洲採購，我們在歐洲採購，我們看到幾乎所有品項的市場都明顯更強。我們在歐洲採購，並且在幾乎所有方面都看到更強勁得多的市場。甚至令人意外的是，我們的SBS市場在過去一個月也轉強了。同樣地，目前該紙種我們也處於售罄狀態。

So I think it's changed very radically. The unplanned downtime that we had in February was a result of our volumes not picking up as we anticipated. And we had a couple of issues in our mill in a couple of key mills for us. One was to do with an electric -- nothing to do with weather actually, but to do with an electricity outage near one of our big mills cable, and we lost power for a few days. And that obviously many this go down. So we had a couple of issues in February that were, as we say, unplanned, and they're not going to reoccur. We do not anticipate any material downtime in Q2. As I say, we're sold out. And I think that's why we are taking the decision we're taking in the marketplace.

所以我認為情況已非常劇烈地改變。我們在2月出現的非計畫性停機，是因為我們的出貨量沒有如我們預期回升。而且我們在幾座對我們很關鍵的紙廠遇到了一些問題。其中一個與電力有關——其實與天候無關——而是我們一座大型紙廠附近的電纜發生停電，我們斷電了好幾天。而那顯然使得這些（產線）停了下來。因此，我們在2月確實有幾個如我們所說的非計畫性問題，而且不會再發生。我們不預期第二季會有任何重大停機。如我所說，我們已售罄。我想這也是我們在市場上做出目前決策的原因。

Quickly, it's nice to hear about the, if you will, the mixing up of your business over time as you have new customers coming in both in March, in the first quarter and now in April, I think you said 200 customers were more. Is there way to dimensionalize what that might mean for your margin, how those customers are coming in relative to your margin expectations? Any thoughts relative to your longer-term projections in North America? Thank you, and good luck in the quarter.

很快地，聽到你們的業務隨時間推移、隨著新客戶在3月、第一季以及現在4月陸續進來而有所混合變化，這點很好；我想你說新增了多200位客戶。能否量化一下，這對你們的毛利率可能意味著什麼——這些新進客戶相對於你們的毛利率預期是怎麼進來的？對於你們在北美的長期預測，有沒有任何想法？謝謝，祝本季順利。

Thank you very much. I think that we are very comfortable with the business that we're bringing in, George, is what I would say. I mean, obviously, every customer is different and every innovation that we bring to our customers is different in every service level that we'll bring to our customers is different. What I look at is just generally the totality. And we've had each month from January, February, March, more number of new customers coming in. And April is actually -- our new customer volume is actually 30% up on March's number in volume terms.

非常感謝。George，我想我會說，我們對正在導入的業務感到非常放心。我的意思是，顯然每位客戶都不同，我們帶給客戶的每項創新也不同，我們提供給客戶的每一種服務水準也不同。我看的是整體的總體情況。而且從1月、2月、3月，每個月進來的新客戶數量都更多。而4月實際上——以量來看，我們的新客戶量比3月高出30%。

So I'm really comfortable with the way we're going, but obviously, we still have to wash through some of the business that we lost that we have was on economic. That's why at this moment in time, I'm very comfortable that in the second half, we'll start to lap. And of course, our comparators are much easier, but we'll certainly start to show growth against the previous year.

所以我對我們前進的方向非常有信心，但顯然我們仍需要消化一些我們失去的、我們認為在經濟性上不划算的業務。這也是為什麼在此刻，我非常有信心在下半年我們會開始進入可比基期。當然，我們的比較基期會容易得多，但我們肯定會開始呈現相較前一年的成長。

Philip Ng, Jefferies LLC.

Philip Ng，Jefferies LLC。

Results in Europe was certainly very impressive given the backdrop. Tony, remind us how hedged you guys are for the next one or two quarters on gas. Certainly, that's come up quite a bit. And with the timing of the box implementation in Europe, I think, the lag six to nine months, are you in a position to continue to drive earnings growth in, call it, 2Q and maybe 3Q as well and maintain your margins? Just give us some color in terms of the environment you're in and your ability to kind of push price on the box side of things?

在這樣的背景之下，歐洲的業績確實非常亮眼。Tony，提醒我們一下，你們在未來一到兩季的天然氣避險程度有多高？這個議題最近被提到很多。另外，考量到歐洲紙箱（box）導入的時點，我想有6到9個月的落後期，你們是否有能力在所謂的第二季、甚至第三季也持續推動獲利成長並維持毛利率？請就你們所處的環境，以及你們在紙箱端推動漲價的能力，給我們一些說明？

Well, let me do the second part of your question, and then I'll hand it to Ken for the first part. Basically, we are out in the marketplace today, and you already see the more commodity side of our business as in sheet feeding implementing the first price increases, and that's going through in practically all markets in Europe. We are also out there raising our converted products prices to noncontractual customers.

好，我先回答你問題的第二部分，然後把第一部分交給Ken。基本上，我們目前就在市場上，你已經看到我們業務中較偏大宗商品的一端（例如平張供紙 sheet feeding）正在實施第一波漲價，而且幾乎在歐洲所有市場都在推進。我們也正在對非合約客戶調高我們的加工產品（converted products）價格。

And that should -- you'll see a very minor uptick, I'd say, in Q2. And then Q3 and Q4, you'll start to see the implementation of those increases plus some of the contracts. Normally speaking, the contracts are three to six months depending on the customer. And then you'll start to see that feeding through in quarter three and quarter four. So we'll see full implementation of our paper prices. And frankly speaking, we and the industry need it. So therefore it's going to happen. And so I'd say second half of the year, you'll see the benefit of the price increases feeding through into converting products.

而這應該——我會說，你會在第二季看到非常小幅的上升。然後在第三季與第四季，你會開始看到這些漲價的落實，再加上一部分合約的調整。一般而言，合約期視客戶而定，通常是3到6個月。接著你會在第三季與第四季看到這些效果逐季反映。因此我們將看到紙價的全面落實。坦白說，我們以及整個產業都需要這樣的調整。所以這一定會發生。因此我會說，在下半年，你會看到漲價效益逐步傳導到加工產品上。

Philip, broadly speaking, for the second quarter, about 50% hedged and about a third, and a third for quarter three and quarter four as we sit here today. Clearly, it's a very active policy we run and you're just trying to kind of find spots in the market where you do a bit more, a bit less. But equally, you don't overhedge because that can lead to the wrong side of where pricing might go. So yeah, 50% for quarter two, a third for three and four as we sit here now.

Philip，概括來說，就第二季而言，大約避險了50%；而就第三季與第四季而言，以我們目前此刻的狀態來看，各約三分之一。很明顯，我們採行的是非常積極的政策，你只是試著在市場上找一些時點，多做一點、少做一點。但同樣地，你也不能過度避險，因為那可能會讓你站到價格走勢的反方向。所以，是的：第二季50%，第三季與第四季各三分之一，就我們現在的狀況而言。

Okay. Great color. And just sticking with Europe, a little surprised with the announcement on the potential closure in UK, which would certainly be helpful for just the broader markets, it's oversupplied. But what does that mean for Smurfit? Are you -- I mean, does that mean you're going to have to buy paper in the open market? Are you able to kind of move some production internally? And just give us a little more perspective on the mill that you're considering and having that contemplation is a high-cost mill and just effect of how you're going to manage through this?

好的。很有幫助。再回到歐洲，我對你們宣布英國可能關廠有點意外，這對整體市場當然會有幫助，因為目前供給過剩。但這對Smurfit意味著什麼？你們——我的意思是，這是否代表你們必須在公開市場買紙？你們能否在內部調整一些產能？另外，請多給我們一些你們正在考慮的那座紙廠的觀點：是否屬於高成本紙廠，以及你們將如何管理並度過這段期間的影響？

Yeah. I mean, obviously, we don't take decisions to close any asset without a great deal of thought. And clearly, the supply to our very good and strong UK and Irish business is critical to us. And that mill in the UK and Birmingham played a very important role in that. But it was, frankly speaking, one of our highest, if not our highest cost mill, and it operates in the UK and has the wrong width for the long term. So that mill always had a finite period where it could last for.

是的。我的意思是，顯然我們不會在沒有深思熟慮的情況下就決定關閉任何資產。而且，對我們而言，對英國與愛爾蘭這個非常優質且強勁的業務提供供應是關鍵。英國伯明翰的那座紙廠在其中扮演了非常重要的角色。但坦白說，它是我們成本最高的紙廠之一，甚至可能是最高的；而且它位於英國，且其紙幅寬度（width）從長期來看並不合適。因此那座紙廠一直都有其可運作的有限期限。

And so once we sorted out the supply arrangements, which we have obviously done both internally and some externally for a period of time, we've then decided to conclude it. It needed investment that mill. And clearly, we invest in mills that we believe have a long-term future and will be low cost, and that's been the mission of Smurfit -- old Smurfit Kappa and will be the mission of Smurfit Westrock.

因此，一旦我們把供應安排理順——我們顯然已經完成了，包含部分內部與部分外部、在一段時間內的安排——我們就決定將其結束。那座紙廠需要投資。而且很明確，我們會投資在我們相信具有長期未來且成本低的紙廠；這一直是Smurfit——過去的Smurfit Kappa——的使命，也將是Smurfit Westrock的使命。

And this mill, unfortunately, this didn't have a long-term future based upon a lot of the constraints that they had, and so it wasn't worth longer-term investing in. But we don't have a problem to supply the mill because we've organized that. That's why we didn't announce it, frankly speaking, in February because we wanted to make sure all the Ts were crossed and my eyes were dotted.

而這座紙廠很不幸地，基於其諸多限制，並不具備長期未來，因此不值得做長期投資。但我們在供應上沒有問題，因為我們已經把安排都組織好了。這也是為什麼我們坦白說沒有在2月就宣布，因為我們想確保所有細節都已確認無誤。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

Gabe Hajde，Wells Fargo。

Just want to confirm on the most recent price announcement that RISI picked up for June implementation. It is kind of standard practice for you all to not embed that into your outlook until it's reflected in the formal publication. And then, Ken, at the beginning of the year, you kind of gave us a rundown of some of the key inputs and tailwind headwinds associated with those. Would you kindly give us an update on those?

我想確認一下，RISI提到你們最近的漲價公告，預計在6月實施。你們一貫的做法似乎是在正式刊登（formal publication）反映之前，不會把它納入你們的展望。另外，Ken，在年初你曾向我們說明一些關鍵投入項目，以及與之相關的順風與逆風。能否請你更新一下這些項目的最新狀況？

Yeah. No problem, Gabe, yeah. Just on the first point, obviously, that was a relatively recent decision. So we are seeing content increases coming into many of our grades. We're in a sold out position. So I'm not sure that it's necessarily fully bedded in, but then neither are all the costs fully bedded in. So I don't think that we're sort of saying that the $50 that we have announced to our customers a couple of days ago, is in these forecasts totally.

好的。沒問題，Gabe，是的。先談第一點，顯然那是相對近期才做出的決定。所以我們確實看到在我們許多等級（grades）中，含量（content）成本在上升。我們目前是滿載、售罄（sold out）的狀態。所以我不確定這是否已經完全反映進去，但同樣地，也不是所有成本都已經完全反映。因此我不認為我們是在說，我們幾天前向客戶宣布的那每噸50美元（$50），已經完全納入這些預測之中。

But obviously, some of it will to be offsetting some of the very material cost increases that we're seeing, whether that's freight or whether that can be energy or whether it can be anything, frankly, that we're buying today, you'll obviously have picked up that many of our customers are coming to us with -- or sorry, suppliers are coming to us with necessary increases or that they're looking for because of their own supply constraints.

但很明顯，其中一部分將用來抵銷我們所看到的非常顯著的成本上升，不論是運費、能源，或坦白說是我們今天正在採購的任何項目。你也顯然已注意到，我們的許多客戶正帶著——或抱歉，供應商正帶著——因其自身供應受限而必須提出的漲價，或他們正在尋求的必要調漲來找我們。

One of the things, Gabe, to bear in mind is that I think for the first time in a little while that we are seeing the security supply question come back on the table. And during the whole COVID period, we and Smurfit Kappa were excellent with our customer base in ensuring that we got gave them security of supply. And clearly, that's something that we're continuing to emphasize to our customer base that we are an integrated system. We have everything we -- so therefore, they don't need to worry about their boxes when they get them from us or their consumer packaging when they get them from us. But there are obviously many customers out there that are somewhat affected by some of the issues that are going on in the supply chain at the moment.

Gabe，有一點需要記住的是，我認為我們在一段時間以來首次看到「供應安全」這個議題重新回到檯面上。在整個 COVID 期間，我們以及 Smurfit Kappa 都非常善於與客戶群合作，確保我們為他們提供供應安全。而很明顯，這也是我們持續向客戶群強調的重點：我們是一個垂直整合的系統。我們擁有所需的一切——因此，他們不需要擔心從我們這裡拿到的紙箱，或從我們這裡取得的消費者包裝。但顯然，市場上有許多客戶在某種程度上正受到目前供應鏈各種問題的影響。

Gabe, yeah, I suppose, look, really, I suppose the one moving part, as you can imagine, is the energy piece. I think back in February, if memory serves me correctly, we would have guided, actually got $80 million higher year-on-year for the group. I think that's probably based on everything we've done, probably more like between [$2.70] and [$2.90] in terms of total impact for the year. So there is kind of cost inflation that we wouldn't have had back in February.

Gabe，是的，我想——如你所想——真正的變動因素之一是能源這一塊。我記得在 2 月時，我們原本的指引是集團年對年大約增加 8,000 萬美元。我想基於我們所做的一切，全年總影響現在可能更接近介於 [$2.70] 到 [$2.90] 之間。所以確實出現了在 2 月時我們還沒有的那種成本通膨。

Equally, really was an indirect impact of all of that is an increase in freight cost. I mean even within the first quarter alone, we had a decent impact from just freight. We expect that to carry through these, probably a slight relief in terms of labor, a slight relief in terms of OCC. But broadly, when you think about is the big moving part is Energy and really then volumes, as Tony kind of alluded to, picking up during -- as we get towards the back half of the year.

同樣地，所有這些的間接影響其實是運費成本上升。我的意思是，光是第一季內，我們就已經受到運費相當明顯的影響。我們預期這會延續下去；在勞動力方面可能會稍微緩解，在 OCC（廢舊瓦楞紙箱）方面也可能稍微緩解。但整體來看，最大的變動因素是能源，然後是銷量——正如 Tony 提到的——隨著我們接近下半年後段而回升。

Pricing, as you say, to come true be bedded in. But really, when you look at the cost inflation fees, you take the puts on the calls and all the bits and pieces, you kind of broadly end up where the range kind of sits. But really the big mover from what we said back in February, probably energy.

如你所說，定價將會真正落地並穩固。但實際上，當你看成本通膨的各項費用，把利多與利空、以及所有零零總總的因素都納入考量後，結果大致就會落在那個區間。不過，與我們 2 月所說相比，最大的變動來源大概就是能源。

All right. As expected. And then just one -- obviously, you talked about pivoting kind of the growth at some point in the second half given the onboarding of new customers on the corrugated side. Just maybe on more of the, I'll call it, open markets piece of the containerboard business in North America. Can you talk at all about what you've seen in the export markets in North America?

好的。如預期。另外再問一點——顯然你提到，隨著瓦楞紙箱業務端新客戶的導入，下半年某個時間點成長會轉強。想請教更多關於北美箱板紙業務中，我稱之為「公開市場」那一塊。你能談談你在北美出口市場看到的情況嗎？

In North America, well, I would say what I'd say -- what we've seen in Latin America because that has a direct impact, is that literally, as I said at the very outset to the first question, things have changed really quickly. Now obviously, I can't put my hand on my heart and say they're not going to change quickly back again. But as we sit here today, I've never seen the speed of change so quickly.

在北美，我會說——我會談我們在拉丁美洲看到的情況，因為那對我們有直接影響——正如我在第一個問題一開始就說的，情勢變化非常快。當然，我也不能拍胸脯說它不會很快又反向變化。但就我們今天坐在這裡的觀察，我從未見過變化速度如此之快。

So for example, in Latin America, they were getting paper from Europe for a period of time at very discounted prices. Now if you look for paper in Europe, you've been told, well, we can make it in June -- sorry, July and we can ship it and so it can be with you in October, September, October. So -- and by the way, we're not -- we haven't discussed pricing.

例如，在拉丁美洲，有一段時間他們以非常折扣的價格從歐洲取得紙品。但現在如果你到歐洲找紙，人家會告訴你：我們可以在 6 月——抱歉，7 月——生產，然後出貨，因此大概會在 9 月、10 月到貨。所以——順帶一提，我們還沒有——我們還沒談到價格。

So -- and there isn't a whole lot of paper coming out of the United States. I think the number, if I'm right, Ken, is about 30% less paper being shipped out of out of the US to Latin America. So the market has changed very quickly. And I think if you look at it in the context, Gabe, the worldwide containerboard markets, call it $100 million, just to make the math easy. The world still has been growing over the last number of years, 1%, 2%, and that's generally speaking, needing containerboard. And there's been a lot of capacity come out.

所以——而且從美國出口的紙量也不多。如果我沒記錯，Ken，數字大約是從美國運往拉丁美洲的紙量少了約 30%。因此市場變化非常快。而且我認為，如果把它放在脈絡中來看，Gabe，全球箱板紙市場——為了方便計算，假設是 1 億美元。過去幾年全球仍以 1%、2% 的速度成長，而一般而言這代表對箱板紙的需求。同時也有不少產能退出。

And we haven't seen the effect of that capacity coming out really because the economy hasn't been strong enough in some of the North American and European markets. As there's some degree of strengthening, then all of a sudden, you see a shortage because people have been keeping their stocks low. And so that's probably what's happening in the export market. And clearly, that's something that will be beneficial to us as we roll through the year.

而我們之所以一直沒有真正看到那些產能退出的效果，是因為北美與歐洲部分市場的經濟力道還不夠強。一旦出現某種程度的轉強，你就會突然看到短缺，因為大家一直把庫存維持在低水位。所以出口市場大概就是在發生這種情況。而且很明顯，這將在我們今年推進的過程中對我們有利。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Congrats on all the progress. First question, just you mentioned, Tony, seeing much improved demand and strength in order books. And it seems like you sold out of most paper grades. What do you think is driving that, given that the consumer is further stretched due to higher cost just like some of these CPGs are likely to input price increases to cover their costs? And relatedly, can you talk about the monthly volume progression in 1Q in North America and what volumes have done thus far in April?

恭喜各項進展。第一個問題，你提到 Tony 看到需求明顯改善、訂單簿更強。而且看起來你們大多數紙種都已售罄。考量到消費者因成本上升而更吃緊，就像一些 CPG（民生消費品公司）可能也會為了覆蓋成本而調漲投入品價格一樣，你認為是什麼在驅動這種情況？另外，也請談談北美第一季各月份的銷量走勢，以及截至目前 4 月的銷量表現如何？

Okay. That's quite granular, Mike. I mean basically, we have been -- we're down -- as you saw, we were down 8.5% or so during Q4. We're down [7%-odd] this quarter. As we sit here today, we're down 4% in April versus last year. And we're -- we didn't lose a whole lot of business in Q1 and Q2 last year. So we're lapping higher comparators than we would have.

好的。這問得相當細，Mike。基本上，我們一直——如你所見，第四季我們下滑約 8.5%。這一季我們下滑約 [7%-odd]。以我們今天的情況來看，4 月相較去年下滑 4%。而且去年第一季與第二季我們並沒有流失太多業務。所以我們正在面對比原本更高的比較基期。

What I would say is that we are seeing, as I say, significantly new customer wins as -- and more importantly, Mike, we're seeing good people coming to work with Smurfit Westrock. And we talk about our model and empowering our people and having the right culture. And for me, that's critical to longer-term success. And I think that's what we're starting to see the benefits of that as people are coming into the company and realizing it's a good place to work and has got the right values and the right culture. So I think -- and I mean, I hope you experienced a little bit of that yourself when you were in Amsterdam recently.

我想說的是，我們如我所說，正看到顯著的新客戶得標——更重要的是，Mike，我們看到優秀的人才來 Smurfit Westrock 工作。我們談到我們的營運模式、賦能員工，以及建立正確的文化。對我而言，這對長期成功至關重要。我認為我們正開始看到其效益：人們加入公司後，意識到這是一個適合工作的地方，具備正確的價值觀與文化。所以我想——而且我希望你最近在阿姆斯特丹時也親身感受到其中一點。

So I think, I would say that we're moving in the right direction. I mean it's never as quick as you want it to be. Let's be honest. I mean, I would love it to be snapping my fingers and getting 600 customers, new customers a month, that's not reality. You lose a big piece of business, it takes a while to get a number of smaller pieces of business in and remodeled.

所以我認為，我會說我們正朝著正確的方向前進。我的意思是，進展永遠不會像你希望的那麼快。老實說。我的意思是，我當然希望能夠彈指之間就每月新增600位客戶，但那不現實。你失去一大塊業務後，需要一段時間才能把許多較小的業務補進來並重新調整組合。

I'll give you a very good example. When we acquired -- sorry, when we combined with WestRock, we had a large facility in one of our Latin American countries. And they were doing about 350 million square meters, and they were losing about $20 million a year. They're now doing 280 million square meters, and they're making $15 million a year. So that kind of turnaround is done, but we've lost volume, but we're making much more money. And that's the kind of model that we want to get to with all of our facilities. Some of that requires some investments. Some of them require people change, some requires a total mix change. But we're on the path, and we'd like it to be quicker, but the reality is you can only do things at the pace that the organization and people are able to go with. The first part of your question was --

我給你一個很好的例子。當我們收購——抱歉，當我們與WestRock合併時，我們在拉丁美洲某個國家有一座大型工廠。他們當時的產量約為3.5億平方公尺，而且每年虧損約2,000萬美元。現在他們的產量是2.8億平方公尺，但每年獲利1,500萬美元。所以這種扭轉已經完成了；我們的量是少了，但賺的錢多得多。而這正是我們希望所有工廠都能達到的模式。其中一部分需要一些投資。有些需要人員變動，有些則需要整體產品組合的改變。但我們正在路上，我們也希望能更快，但現實是，你只能以組織與人員所能承受的速度推進。你問題的第一部分是--

With the drivers of improved demand. I suppose that Tony kind of alluded to earlier on, some of that could potentially be a bit prebuying given what's coming. But I think also, like I think we all experience it in our day-to-day lives. I mean ultimately, shelves do need to be refilled at some point is only so far I can push things out buffer stocks and every other stock. So I think some of that is just the supply chain where it can begin to normalize given the volatility of the world outside.

關於需求改善的驅動因素。我想Tony先前也稍微提到，其中一部分可能是因應接下來的情況而提前備貨。但我也認為，就像我們在日常生活中都能感受到的那樣。最終，貨架總有一天需要補貨；我能把事情往後推、靠緩衝庫存和其他庫存撐著，也只有一定的限度。所以我認為其中一部分只是供應鏈在外部世界波動之下，開始有機會逐步回到常態。

I mean people have -- one of the things starting to come back on to our radar as a kind of key strength of or for Westrock in this environment, is security of supply. I mean, that's something that our customers are begging to not only push for, but value more in this kind of environment. So we've seen it equally through the areas that maybe had been lagging for a while. Home improvements, white goods, those kind of areas are strong indicators, and green shoots of demand, too. So there could be an element here of confidence, could be element here of the world begin to understand the volatility and try and find normalcy through that.

我的意思是，人們——在這種環境下，開始重新回到我們雷達上的一個關鍵優勢（對Westrock而言）是供應安全。我的意思是，這是我們的客戶在這種環境下不僅強烈要求、而且更重視的事情。所以我們也同樣在一些可能落後了一段時間的領域看到這種情況。居家改善、白色家電等這些領域都是強勁的指標，也是需求回溫的早期訊號。因此，這裡可能有信心因素，也可能是世界開始理解波動性，並嘗試在其中尋找常態。

Yeah. And the only other thing to add to that, Mike, would be that we are in a seasonally busier period. So we are April through, let's say, November is a busier period. So we should expect to see some pickup. And if people have low stocks and those pick up, then there's naturally bump on that. So it's probably -- it's a combination of all things. But I do agree with you that it is kind of a little counterintuitive given everything that we read in the news every day. But hey, I'll take it.

是的。另外要補充的一點，Mike，是我們正處於季節性較繁忙的期間。也就是說，大約4月到——我們就說——11月是比較忙的時段。所以我們應該會看到一些回升。而如果大家庫存偏低、又開始補庫存，那自然就會帶來一波拉升。所以可能——是各種因素的組合。但我同意你的看法，考量到我們每天在新聞裡看到的一切，這確實有點反直覺。不過，嘿，我願意接受。

Got it. That's really great color. And then just for my follow-up. Realizing some of the incremental costs that you're currently experiencing made transitory and you pointed out the energy [whatever] you have available to you internally to offset those higher costs? There are cost-takeout programs. I believe that to offset inflation. Is there any way to accelerate those programs? And this is all side, obviously, from announcing further price increases, which you just did.

了解。這些說明很有幫助。接著就我的追問。考量到你們目前正在承受的一些增量成本屬於暫時性，你也提到了能源（不管是什麼），你們內部有哪些手段可以用來抵消這些較高的成本？有一些降本計畫。我相信是用來抵消通膨。有沒有辦法加速這些計畫？當然，這些都先不談你們剛宣布的進一步漲價。

Yeah. Michael, I think you would have seen, again, at the event last week, you've seen a lot of programs and plans in innovation where we are designed specifically to take costs out, not just for us but for our customers. I think the short answer is yes. I mean as an organization, we take the view that when you wake up on January 1, general wage inflation means you're already behind for the year that you just had. So we always have a very active cost-takeout program plant by plant, which is part of our budget process to primarily at offsetting inflation.

是的。Michael，我想你也看到了——同樣在上週的活動上——你看到我們在創新方面有很多專案與計畫，這些是專門為了降本而設計的，不只是為了我們，也為了我們的客戶。我想簡短的答案是可以。我的意思是，作為一個組織，我們的看法是：當你在1月1日醒來，一般薪資通膨就意味著你在新的一年一開始就已經落後了。所以我們一直都有非常積極的降本計畫，以工廠為單位推進，作為預算流程的一部分，主要用來抵消通膨。

I think when you get areas of volatility like this in energy, I think some projects that might have been slightly under long finger probably become much more valuable around cost-takeout for head count reduction, those kind of underlying projects, some projects in mills, which have a direct impact on energy consumption and those kind of things we try and bring through, they don't come through quickly, but some we will have started two, three years ago. And as they come online this year, they have a better impact.

我認為當能源出現這樣的波動時，一些原本可能被稍微拖延的專案，會在降本方面變得更有價值，例如人力編制縮減等這類基礎專案；還有一些在紙廠端的專案，會直接影響能源消耗等，我們會努力把這些推進。

But I think we've always taken a view that. If you're looking at earnings, you got to look right down to P&L. There's no point to stopping at sales and the margin. It's every piece of cost that goes into mill is something that our box spends that you need to kind of look at and take a view on. But no cost (inaudible) is kind of a basic principle for everybody in the organization because quite frankly, if you think about beyond these years of inflation before that, we were dealing with low-inflation environments where we're going to get price increases, too. And the only way you can manage that cost base and grow margins is by taking cost out fundamentally.

但我認為我們一直的觀點是這樣。如果你在看獲利，就必須一路看到損益表（P&L）。沒有意義只停在營收和毛利率。進入紙廠、進入紙箱業務的每一項成本，你都需要去看並形成判斷。但「不必要的成本」（聽不清）算是組織裡每個人的基本原則，因為坦白說，如果你回想在這些通膨年份之前，我們面對的是低通膨環境，那時我們也不一定能拿到漲價。而你能管理成本基礎並擴大利潤率的唯一方式，就是從根本上把成本降下來。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

Anthony Pettinari，花旗。

Good morning. In North America, I'm wondering if you can talk about when you would expect to see the most recently realized price hike, the $50 a tonne net from Pulp and Paper week in April. Like when should that flow through for you? And then the $50 a tonne that you've just announced, I believe it's for June. Assuming that, that would be fully implemented, like what month or in terms of quarterly cadence, when should we expect to see that in the results?

早安。在北美，我想請你談談你們預期何時會看到最近已實現的那次漲價，也就是4月紙漿與造紙週（Pulp and Paper week）淨每噸50美元的漲幅。例如，這大概何時會反映到你們的業績裡？另外，你們剛宣布的每噸50美元漲價，我相信是6月生效。假設那能完全落實，那麼以月份或季度節奏來看，我們應該何時會在結果中看到？

Well, the first $50, you should fully see it implemented by July 1. So practically speaking, there might be one or two that don't happen. But by and large, the first $50, I should say, the [minus $20 plus $70], it should be fully implemented by July 1, but they'll be progressive through May and June. And then the second $50, if it's to be successful, we will wait and see. I mean, obviously, that's early days. I would suspect that by the end of the -- by September, it will be fully implemented. If it goes through.

嗯，第一個50美元，你應該在7月1日前就能完全看到落實。所以實務上來說，可能會有一兩個沒有發生。但整體而言，第一個50美元——我應該說是[減20加70]——應該會在7月1日前完全落實，但會在5月和6月逐步反映。至於第二個50美元，如果要成功，我們還得再觀察。我的意思是，顯然現在還太早。我猜到——到9月為止——應該會完全落實。如果它能順利推進的話。

Yeah. Yeah. No, that's helpful. And then in North America, there's a comment around the substrate agnostic approach delivering for you. Can you just talk a little bit about your consumer business and how that is performing relative to your expectations around profitability. CRB, SBS kind of substitution dynamics. Just wondering if you could talk on how that business is performing.

是的。是的。不，這很有幫助。然後在北美，有人評論你們的「不拘泥於基材（substrate agnostic）」做法對你們帶來成效。你能否稍微談談你們的消費者業務，以及其獲利表現相對於你們預期的情況。CRB、SBS 這類替代動態。想請問你能否談談那項業務目前的表現。

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I think when you talk about that business, you have to go through the very different substrates of the business. I mean, SBS, as you will all know, has been a very challenged business. But as I mentioned, we are now in a sold-out position in SBS because we've won a lot of customer wins and the -- a lot of our projects have come through.

是的，這很有意思。我的意思是，我認為談到那項業務時，你必須先看業務中非常不同的基材。我的意思是，SBS 如各位所知，一直是個非常具挑戰的業務。但如我提到的，我們現在在 SBS 處於滿載售罄的狀態，因為我們贏得了很多客戶訂單，而且——我們許多專案也已經落地。

So we're in a good position, except obviously, our pricing isn't as good as it was a couple of years back. So demand has picked up, and we are selectively pushing prices up in certain areas of SBS. And in our CUK business, that's a solid business. It's a system business and continues to do well, and we're comfortable and strong about that business, and we're investing behind it.

所以我們處於不錯的位置，當然，顯而易見的是，我們的定價不如幾年前那麼好。因此需求已回升，而我們也在 SBS 的某些領域選擇性地推升價格。至於我們的 CUK 業務，那是一項穩健的業務。它是系統型業務，並且持續表現良好；我們對那項業務感到安心且有信心，也正在加大投資。

And in our CRB business, obviously, our mills are little bit older in that area, and we are actively moving from some CRB products into CUK and SBS and giving the same performance for a better performance for our customers, and that's working very well and is obviously beneficial to us as well as a company.

而在我們的 CRB 業務方面，很明顯地，我們在那一塊的紙廠設備相對較老舊；我們正積極把部分 CRB 產品轉向 CUK 與 SBS，為客戶提供同等表現，甚至更好的表現。

So overall, I think we are -- with perhaps the exception of CRB, we're in a very good space. I would say that -- if you ask me about the results, I don't think we make enough return on some of our assets in that. And that's something that is work in progress. And some of it's to do with our own planning. And so we have some work to do still.

所以整體而言，我認為——或許除了 CRB 之外——我們處在非常好的位置。我會說——如果你問我結果，我不認為我們在其中一些資產上賺到足夠的報酬率。而這是目前仍在推進中的工作。其中一部分也與我們自身的規劃有關。所以我們還有一些工作要做。

But it's fundamentally a very good business with very, very good people, and I have been incredibly impressed with some of the assets that we have and some of the people that we have in that business. So there's no reason why we can't be very, very successful in that business for the long term. But what to do on our CRB mills. Some facilities, we still have work to do and reliability. But our positioning is very strong, and we have really good people.

但從根本上說，這是一門非常好的生意，擁有非常、非常優秀的人才；我對我們在那項業務中擁有的一些資產以及一些人員都感到非常驚艷。所以沒有理由我們不能在長期內在那項業務上非常、非常成功。但 CRB 紙廠要怎麼做。有些設施我們在可靠度方面仍有工作要做。不過我們的市場定位非常強，而且我們有非常好的人才。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub，Seaport Research Partners。

First, I think during the Investor Day, you talked about maybe getting about half of the business back in targeted by the end of next year, maybe like the fourth quarter. And as you said, you were down high-single digits or close to 10% in the fourth quarter. Does that mean you could potentially be up 5% in the fourth quarter? And are you -- I mean it sounds like you're doing really well in regaining business. Are you on the trajectory that you hoped you had been on?

首先，我記得在投資人日（Investor Day）時，你們談到可能在明年年底、也許是第四季，拿回大約一半的目標業務。而如你所說，你們在第四季下滑了高個位數或接近 10%。這是否代表你們在第四季可能會成長 5%？另外——我的意思是，聽起來你們在重新奪回業務方面做得很好。你們是否正走在你們原本希望的軌跡上？

I think I would say -- I don't know about sticking to a 5% number, but because a lot -- a little bit of that will depend on what the market is. But I think I am really happy with the trajectory of our sales team and sales organizations and how we're moving -- not all our plants are perfect yet, Mark. We have still some work to do. We still have some investments to make. We still have some people to bring in. So it's still working -- I'm sorry, we'll always be work in progress. I mean corrugated box plants are their own organism, so to speak, that they actually -- each one is its own business.

我想我會說——我不確定要不要堅持 5% 這個數字，因為其中有一部分會取決於市場狀況。但我對我們銷售團隊與銷售組織的進展軌跡非常滿意，以及我們如何推進——Mark，我們不是所有工廠都已經完美。我們仍然有一些工作要做。我們仍然有一些投資要進行。我們仍然需要引進一些人才。所以這仍在進行中——抱歉，我們永遠都會是在持續改善中。我的意思是，瓦楞紙箱工廠某種程度上就像一個有機體，它們——每一家都像是一個獨立的事業。

And they don't all act the same and perform the same. But overall, the direction of travel with the people that we have is really strong. And as I say, I'm really encouraged by the quality of people we're bringing into our organization. I mean, we're doing a, I won't say, management training course, that's the wrong word, but we're doing a -- we're bringing every single manager from North America into a -- this is how to operate type course. And everybody seems to like it and likes the direction that we're taking the company internally. But that doesn't mean to say I can wave a magic wand and everything will change automatically. It won't. It just takes a little bit of time.

它們不會都以同樣方式運作、也不會有同樣的表現。但整體而言，以我們現有的人員來看，前進方向非常強勁。而且如我所說，我對我們正在引進組織的人才品質感到非常振奮。我的意思是，我們在做一個——我不會說是管理訓練課程，那個詞不太對——但我們正在把北美的每一位經理都帶進一個——「如何營運」類型的課程。而且大家似乎都喜歡，也喜歡我們在公司內部推動的方向。但這不代表我能揮一揮魔法棒，一切就會自動改變。不會的。這只是需要一點時間。

But we have some standout performers and standout managers and we just need to have everybody to be a standout performer and standout manager. And that's what's behind the drive. As I've said, to go from zero or negative in our corrugated system to margins of between 8% and 12%. And that's where we will get to. The question is when. And obviously, we're trying to drive it as quickly as possible.

但我們確實有一些表現突出的員工與突出的經理，我們只是需要讓每個人都成為表現突出的員工與突出的經理。這就是推動力背後的原因。如我所說，要把我們瓦楞系統的利潤率從零或負值提升到 8% 到 12% 之間。而我們會達到那個目標。問題是何時。而顯然，我們正盡可能快速地推進。

And then just as the second question. So you talked about how in the consumer business still tuck in SBS from a profitability standpoint. So I'm kind of curious, you're sold out. You're not making enough money in that business relative to what you think you should be. You've announced price increases broadly in a number of the other grades. And you did mention -- you mentioned you've done some in SBS. Maybe if you could clarify, is that just in the extruded grades? Or is that more broadly? And if not more broadly, what is it that we need to wait for until we can start seeing the SBS business making a lot more money and hopefully lifting up the UK or at least protecting CUK and CRB as well?

然後第二個問題。所以你談到在消費者業務中，從獲利角度來看，SBS 仍然有點拖累。所以我有點好奇，你們已經售罄。你們在那項業務賺到的錢，仍低於你們認為應該有的水準。你們已經在其他多個等級上廣泛宣布漲價。而你也提到——你提到你們在 SBS 也做了一些。也許你能澄清一下，那只是針對擠出（extruded）等級嗎？還是更廣泛的範圍？如果不是更廣泛，那我們還需要等待什麼，才能開始看到 SBS 業務賺更多錢，並希望帶動 UK（或至少保護 CUK 與 CRB）？

I mean I don't think I should be really talking about forward pricing. But I mean, obviously, as I said, what we've done is selectively increased some SBS pricing -- or announced increases of some SBS pricing. And we'll just have to wait and see, Mark, when we believe our negative -- the market will believe it's up to -- it's not just up to us. It's when we believe the time is right. I mean it's a relatively new phenomenon that we've got sold out. I mean, if you were -- when we were together in February, we wouldn't have imagined that we will be in this position, and we are in this position as we go into May.

我的意思是，我覺得我不應該真的談論未來的定價。但我的意思是，很明顯地，如我所說，我們已選擇性地提高了部分 SBS 的價格——或宣布了部分 SBS 的漲價。而我們只能再觀察看看，Mark，當我們認為我們的負面——市場是否會相信，這不只是取決於我們。而是在我們認為時機成熟的時候。我的意思是，我們售罄這件事其實是相對新的現象。我的意思是，如果你——當我們二月在一起時，我們不會想像我們會處於這個位置，但我們在進入五月時確實就在這個位置上。

So on the assumption that, that position stays stronger and on the assumption that stayed the same, and on the assumption that we're not comfortable with our profitability, that's something that we will obviously keep a weather eye on as a company, and then take it from there.

因此，在假設該部位仍然較強、且假設維持不變、並且假設我們對自身獲利能力仍不滿意的情況下，這是我們作為一家公司顯然會持續密切關注的事項，然後再視情況採取後續行動。

Detlef Winckelmann, JPMorgan.

Detlef Winckelmann，摩根大通。

Maybe my first one would be, I mean, we know Q2 is obviously going to have a lot of cost. We've seen that through the Middle East inflation coming through. But at the same time, we've seen a raft of price increases both in Europe and the US. [30] in the US so far since you run started and, let's say, about [100] cumulative in Europe. I would just love your thoughts in terms of price cost where you think we've kind of landed at the end of this, assuming you don't get the other $50 per tonne price increase that you just announced, my sense is that you probably recovered more than cost inflation in Europe and maybe matched it in the US so far. Is that a fair statement? Or any color on that would be great.

也許我第一個問題是，我的意思是，我們知道第二季顯然會有很多成本。我們已經看到中東通膨傳導出來。但同時，我們也看到歐洲與美國都有一連串的漲價。美國自從你們這波調價開始以來，到目前為止大約[30]；而歐洲累計大約[100]。我很想聽聽你們對於價格與成本的看法：你們認為到最後大概落在什麼位置？假設你們不會再拿到你們剛宣布的每噸再漲50美元那一項，我的感覺是，你們在歐洲可能回收的幅度已經超過成本通膨，而在美國到目前為止大概是打平。這樣的說法公平嗎？或是任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

Well, Detlef, it's Ken here. It's a tricky one because we tend not to go into the segments for quarter on quarter. But broadly, I think when you look at price -- I mean remember, price increase in Europe for paper in the last number of weeks. It takes a bit of time to work through the system, particularly given the level of integration we have.

Detlef，我是Ken。這題有點棘手，因為我們通常不會逐季去拆分到各個事業區塊。但大致上，我認為當你看價格——我的意思是，記得歐洲紙品在過去幾週才剛漲價。在我們高度垂直整合的情況下，這需要一些時間才能在系統中反映出來。

So -- but I think you're seeing probably a couple of impacts, and you rightly point out. Energy continues to be -- as we go into the second quarter is when it begins to kind of hit a little bit. So many may be slightly higher for the group in the second quarter. Recovered fiber is definitely higher for the group in the second quarter, probably around [$20 million-odd].

所以——但我想你可能會看到幾個影響，你也說得對。能源成本持續存在——進入第二季時，它開始有點明顯地反映出來。因此，第二季對集團而言可能會略高一些。回收纖維在第二季對集團而言確實更高，可能約多出[約2,000萬美元]。

I think you referenced slightly earlier on, like freight is one of those things has an indirect impact of the cost of energy, it is showing some increases again in the second quarter, probably another $10 million. I think the big delta that we have from a credit perspective, if you like, on the bridge second quarter around downtime, fundamentally downtime in the second quarter last year, it was a lot heavier than the second quarter this year. In fact, that was quarter one this year.

我想你稍早也提到，像運費這類項目會受到能源成本的間接影響；第二季又開始出現一些上升，可能再增加約1,000萬美元。我認為從抵減的角度來看，我們在第二季的橋接表（bridge）上最大的差異在於停機時間（downtime）：基本上，去年第二季的停機比今年第二季重得多。事實上，今年是第一季比較多。

And so quarter-on-quarter, you're probably getting the benefit of about, call it, $40 million lower downtime year on-year. So -- or quarter-on-quarter. So I think between the [Js and the reels], the code in (inaudible) race, you probably end up back at if you can get a bit better volume if a bit better on price than it comes through a piece, but the underlying cost movements are being broadly offset by the impact of lower downtime quarter on quarter.

因此，若以年對年來看，你大概會受惠於停機時間降低約4,000萬美元。所以——或是以季對季來看也是如此。所以我認為在[Js and the reels]、以及（聽不清）那段（inaudible）之間，你最後大概會回到：如果量能稍微好一點、價格透過某個部分反映得稍微好一點，但底層成本的變動大致上會被季對季停機時間降低的影響所抵銷。

Yeah. And I'll just add to that, Detlef. We did not follow any price increases that were announced by the industry in October and neither in February because we didn't think the conditions were viable for that. I'm talking Europe here for a second, I did not think that conditions were correct for that. And at that point and you only have to look at results of our competition, you'll see that how terribly underwater everybody is in the business. And we're still doing reasonably well.

是的。Detlef，我再補充一下。我們沒有跟進產業在10月宣布的任何漲價，也沒有跟進2月的漲價，因為我們認為當時的條件不具可行性。我這裡先講歐洲，我不認為當時的條件適合漲價。而且在那個時間點，你只要看看競爭對手的業績，就會看到整個產業的處境有多麼嚴重、幾乎都在水面下。而我們仍然表現得相當不錯。

But now the demand has picked up and now that our order books are good and they're good in Europe, too. And I can tell you that we've won a lot of new business, not only out of the initiatives that we're doing on innovation. But because of our service and our quality and our long-term position in this business, and I would say somewhat our stability in this business. That we won a lot of new business that's coming through as we go into the second half and even into next year.

但現在需求回升了，而且我們的訂單簿很不錯，在歐洲也一樣。我可以告訴你，我們贏得了很多新業務，不僅來自我們在創新方面所推動的各項計畫。也因為我們的服務、品質，以及我們在這個產業的長期布局——我會說某種程度上也因為我們在這個產業的穩定性。因此，我們拿下了很多新業務，隨著我們進入下半年、甚至到明年都會逐步反映出來。

So (inaudible) than this, there was an absolute necessity to recover something by the industry because everybody was dying. And now that there is a bit of momentum, a bit of demand, then clearly, we've seen the -- that's the time that we would push in. As I say, just to use my anecdote about Latin America, there was paper available from Europe basically at any price three months ago, and now you can't get it until September, if you're lucky. And I don't even know the price.

所以（聽不清）（inaudible）除此之外，產業端絕對有必要回收一些（價格/利潤），因為大家都快撐不下去了。而現在有了一點動能、有了一點需求，那麼很明顯地，我們看到——這就是我們會推進的時點。就像我提到拉丁美洲的那個例子，三個月前，歐洲的紙基本上任何價格都買得到；但現在如果你運氣好，也要到9月才拿得到。而且我甚至不知道價格會是多少。

Andrew Jones, UBS.

Andrew Jones，瑞銀。

I just wanted to just go back to the bridge for this year. I mean, you mentioned that, obviously, freight will be -- or we saw like nearly $50 million in the first quarter. What's the overall number you're kind of seeing at sort of spot rates for this year? And then I think you said some labor cost relief, so with the cost takeout on labor side, you're expecting that to be a tailwind. Was that correct? And also, can you just drill into some of the -- sort of cost-related moving parts, specifically things like chemicals, where we probably have a bit less clarity on?

我想回到今年的橋接表（bridge）。你提到運費顯然會——或者我們看到第一季接近5,000萬美元。以今年的即期運價來看，你們整體大概看到的數字是多少？然後我想你說到一些勞動成本的緩解，所以在勞動端的成本削減，你們預期會成為順風。我理解得對嗎？另外，你能否再深入談談一些——與成本相關的變動因素，特別是像化學品這類我們可能比較不清楚的部分？

And also, could you give us some sensitivity around the gas prices move significantly from where we are on the spot today, like maybe a rule of thumb with the hedging taking into account for how much of that energy costs estimate could move with like a EUR10 move in ETF or the dollar move in Henry Hub something like that. Can you help on that side?

另外，如果天然氣價格相對於我們今天看到的即期水準出現顯著變動，你們能否提供一些敏感度分析？例如把避險因素納入後，給一個經驗法則：像TTF變動10歐元，或Henry Hub的美元價格變動之類，會讓你們的能源成本估計變動多少？這部分你們能協助說明嗎？

That will be -- that's one that mathematics on gas prices, Andy. I think I'll leave that to Ciaran, Darren and Frank to take the mechanical. It's not as simple as given the size of the system and how we purchase and buying given the level of hedging, it's really not as simple to say if TTF goes up by [EUR10], that equates to (inaudible) because that involves where you produce, when you produce, how you produce. It's the system is much more delicate and balance around that than a straight input-output gas price. I just missed the first part of the bridge, we're looking for there, Andy, was on which element?

Andy，關於天然氣價格的數學計算——那題。我想我把機械式的計算留給Ciaran、Darren和Frank。這不像表面那麼簡單，因為系統規模很大、我們的採購方式、以及避險程度等因素，使得真的沒辦法簡單地說TTF上升[10歐元]就等於（聽不清）（inaudible）；因為那牽涉到你在哪裡生產、何時生產、如何生產。整個系統在這方面比單純的天然氣價格投入產出關係要更細緻、也更需要平衡。我剛剛漏聽了橋接表的第一部分，Andy，你想問的是哪一個項目？

First of all, freight, but also things like chemicals. And just clarify and belabor what you were saying around the year over year impact in '26.

首先是運費，但也包括像化學品這類項目。另外也請你澄清並再多說明一下你提到的關於2026年年對年影響的部分。

Yeah, yeah. [At low V] on labor, it was less a common trend. It's been a tailwind as we go through the year, less of a headwind as we work to the year simply because of either projects to be implemented, some of those quick-win projects we talked about before or generally good work done around things like CLAs and wage negotiations and some -- and quite frankly, some of the rationalizations too.

對、對。[At low V] 在勞動力方面，這比較不是一個普遍性的趨勢。隨著我們走過今年，它會是一個順風，或至少在我們推進到今年後段時，逆風會變小；原因很單純：要嘛是一些專案將會落地，要嘛是我們之前談到的一些快速見效（quick-win）專案，或是整體上在像CLAs與薪資談判等方面做得不錯——坦白說，也包括一些合理化措施。

So I think broadly, where back in February, we might have seen labor be $100 million of a headwind. It's probably more like $50 million to sit here now, for example, things like chemicals and starches and all that kind of stuff really as a bundle, it's not a meaningful driver for the business, and we don't tend to break them at it. It's quite low level in terms of the overall cost.

所以我認為整體來看，回到2月時，我們可能看到勞動成本帶來1億美元的不利影響。但以目前的情況來看，可能更接近5,000萬美元；例如化學品、澱粉以及諸如此類的東西，作為一個組合來看，對業務並不是有意義的驅動因素，我們通常也不會把它們拆開來看。就整體成本而言，這部分層級相當低。

Big drivers for us tend to be energy, OCC, labor, and freight, as you say, that's going to enter the picture, but simply as a kind of indirect impact from what's happening on energy. So fiber broadly will be slightly better, probably flat where we said in February, so (inaudible) is still there.

對我們而言，主要驅動因素通常是能源、OCC、勞動力以及運輸，如你所說，這也會進入考量，但主要只是能源變化所帶來的一種間接影響。因此，整體纖維成本會略有改善，大概與我們2月所說的持平，所以（聽不清）仍然存在。

On freight, though, freight probably, given what we've seen in the first quarter to extrapolate that, freight's probably a $50 million headwind as we get through the year based on where we sit now, that can clearly change. But they're really the big buckets. And as I said to depth up there, probably the big delta quarter one to quarter two was around downtime of lower downtime, call it, $40 million. But I think the guys be happy to take more detailed questions on energy. As I will be happy for them to take more detailed questions of energy offline.

至於運輸，鑑於我們在第一季看到的情況並將其外推，按目前我們所處的位置來看，運輸在今年剩餘時間可能帶來約5,000萬美元的不利影響，當然這可能會改變。但這些確實是主要的大項。而且如我先前更深入提到的，第一季到第二季最大的變化可能與停機時間有關——停機時間較少，約4,000萬美元。不過我想各位也會樂於就能源提出更細的問題。我也很樂意讓他們在會後離線回答更詳細的能源問題。

Yeah. No, that's fine. So do you say $50 million headwind for the year on, right? So basically, we've seen that in [4Q]?

是的。不，沒問題。所以你是說今年全年大約有5,000萬美元的不利影響，對吧？所以基本上，我們在[第四季]已經看到那個了？

Yeah, because it's really -- really the impact there is where you see gas prices. And clearly, as you work through the year, you've got a bit more hedging or price changes would be. So that's kind of where we see it now. But look, at the half year, we'll update that for you anyway, Andy.

是的，因為那裡的影響其實——主要就是你看到的天然氣價格。而且很明顯，隨著年度推進，你會有更多的避險，或是價格變動會反映出來。所以這就是我們目前看到的情況。不過你看，到了半年報時，我們無論如何都會再更新給你，Andy。

Lewis Roxburgh, Goodbody.

Lewis Roxburgh，Goodbody。

I think most of the questions have been asked, I think. It's just a follow-up on the North American box system. You previously talked about around 60% of those box plants, loss making box plants still to work through. Another 40% as seen as a realistic improvement target over the next few years. So I just get a sense of progression of uplift that might be to our margins as the next phase is delivered or whether that's changed given the current cost outlook.

我想大多數問題都已經問過了。我只是想追問一下北美箱板紙系統。你們之前提到，大約60%的箱廠仍是虧損的箱廠，還需要繼續改善。另外40%被視為未來幾年可實現的改善目標。所以我想了解一下，隨著下一階段的推進，這對我們利潤率可能帶來的提升進度如何；或者在目前成本展望下，這是否有所改變。

No. Lewis, it's Tony. I would say that what we said was that we had got to about [30%] or [29%] loss makers instead of [60%] or [70%] at the beginning. And now we've got it down to [29%]. And obviously, that's continued work in progress. That is very little to with very little to do with the cost side of things is to do with the operating side of things, and that's something that we're working on all the time. And so we we'll probably always have some that are loss making for one reason or another, but I would certainly hope that we would get that into -- through the cycle in single digits.

沒有。Lewis，我是Tony。我會說，我們之前說的是，我們已經把虧損廠的比例從一開始的[60%]或[70%]降到大約[30%]或[29%]。而現在我們已經把它降到[29%]。而且很明顯，這仍然是持續進行中的工作。這跟成本面幾乎沒有關係，主要是跟營運面有關，而這也是我們一直在做的事情。因此，我們可能永遠都會有一些因為某些原因而虧損的廠，但我當然希望我們能在——穿越景氣循環後把它降到個位數。

Thank you. There are no further questions. Speakers, please continue.

謝謝。沒有其他問題了。各位講者，請繼續。

Okay. Well, thank you all for spending the time with us this afternoon or this morning. It was a challenging quarter, Q1, weather-related and somewhat demand related. But we're out of that now. And when we look forward, we see a lot more optimism than we've seen for a long period of time.

好的。那麼，感謝各位今天下午或今天上午撥冗與我們交流。第一季是充滿挑戰的一季，與天氣相關，也在某種程度上與需求相關。但我們現在已經走出那段狀況了。而當我們展望未來時，我們看到的樂觀程度比很長一段時間以來都要高。

Obviously, we're cautiously optimistic rather than aggressively optimistic, but what we see is pretty good right now, and we're hoping that continues as we go through the second quarter and into the rest of the year. Clearly, the world is a little bit of a challenge place, and we all hope that everyone on this call and everywhere stay safe and look after themselves.

當然，我們是審慎樂觀，而不是過度樂觀；但就目前所見，情況相當不錯，我們希望在第二季以及今年剩餘時間能持續如此。顯然，這個世界仍是一個有些具挑戰的地方，我們也希望本次電話會議上的每一位，以及各地的所有人都能保持安全並照顧好自己。

So thanks a lot for joining us, and we look forward to seeing many of you in the coming months.

所以非常感謝各位加入，我們也期待在接下來幾個月見到各位中的許多人。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。