Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2025 Q3 results webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Smurfit Westrock 2025 年第三季業績網路直播和電話會議。（操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfit Westrock Group VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄影。現在我謹將會議交給 Smurfit Westrock 集團投資者關係副總裁 Ciaran Potts。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. As a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and presentation and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，莎拉。再次提醒，今天發布的盈利報告和演示文稿中的聲明以及管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論可能被視為前瞻性聲明。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於獲利報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。本公司不承擔修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's release and in the appendix to the presentation, which are available at investors.smurfitwestrock.com.

今天的演講也涉及某些非GAAP財務指標。與最可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表包含在今天的新聞稿和簡報的附錄中，可在 investors.smurfitwestrock.com 上查閱。

I'll now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit WestRock.

現在我將把麥克風交給 Smurfit WestRock 的執行長 Tony Smurfit。

Thank you very much, Ciaran, for the introduction. Today, I'm joined by Ken Bowles, our Executive Vice President and Group CFO, and we appreciate all of you taking the time to be with us. I am very happy to say that we have again delivered on guidance in what is a challenging environment with an adjusted EBITDA margin number of $1.3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.3%.

非常感謝Ciaran的介紹。今天，我的同事兼執行副總裁兼集團首席財務官肯·鮑爾斯也來到了現場，感謝各位抽出時間與我們共聚一堂。我很高興地宣布，在充滿挑戰的環境下，我們再次實現了業績指引，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 13 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 16.3%。

The quarter was characterized by some challenging months, specifically July in our North American region and August in Europe. Nonetheless, we were able to come through with the numbers we predicted and planned. Since our combination, our North American business has shown great improvement over the course of the last 16 months on both the commercial and operational front, that's reflected by an improved adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2% for the quarter.

本季度的一些月份充滿挑戰，特別是北美地區的 7 月和歐洲的 8 月。儘管如此，我們還是實現了我們預測和計劃的數字。自從我們合併以來，過去 16 個月裡，我們的北美業務在商業和營運方面都取得了巨大的進步，這體現在本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 17.2%。

As you will have heard us say, as we got to understand the legacy Westrock business, we have taken strong actions to remove uneconomic volume within our portfolio of businesses. This, of course, has resulted in a loss of volume as we transition and reposition our business. While there will be a time adjustment to this reposition, we believe we are clearly on the right track as we are already seeing quality customer wins.

正如你們所聽到的，隨著我們對 Westrock 遺留業務的了解加深，我們採取了強有力的措施，以消除我們業務組合中不經濟的業務量。當然，隨著我們業務的轉型和重新定位，這導致了銷售量的下降。雖然這次重新定位需要一些時間調整，但我們相信我們顯然走在正確的道路上，因為我們已經看到了高品質的客戶成長。

In addition to changing our customer portfolio, we're also continuing to rightsize the business by closing down inefficient our loss-making operations including the recently announced closure of a corrugated facility in California in addition to the eight previously announced closures. In paper, we have already announced approximately 500,000 tons of capacity closure in both containerboard and consumer board grades. These footprint optimizations will be a continuing feature as we develop and grow our business.

除了改變客戶組合外，我們還在繼續調整業務規模，關閉效率低下、虧損的業務，包括最近宣布關閉加州的一家瓦楞紙板廠，以及先前宣布關閉的八家工廠。在造紙方面，我們已經宣布關閉約 50 萬噸箱板紙和消費紙板產能。隨著我們業務的發展壯大，這些對業務規模的優化將是我們持續進行的工作。

Turning now to EMEA and APAC, our adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.8% is highly creditable given the environment that exists in the European sphere. We believe it clearly demonstrates the power of the integrated model, which is producing this resilient margin in an environment of paper overcapacity. Our mills continue to run optimally, while at the same time, our converting business are capitalizing on their outstanding leadership position in innovation. We believe this, combined with our insights into sustainability and the significant pending regulations from the European Union should give our customers confidence to help them in navigating this environment.

現在來看看 EMEA 和 APAC 地區，考慮到歐洲目前的市場環境，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.8%，這一成績非常值得稱道。我們認為這清楚地表明了綜合模式的力量，這種模式在紙張產能過剩的環境下產生了這種穩健的利潤率。我們的工廠繼續以最佳狀態運轉，同時，我們的加工業務正在充分利用其在創新方面的卓越領導地位。我們相信，這一點，再加上我們對永續發展的深刻理解以及歐盟即將出台的重要法規，應該能讓我們的客戶有信心幫助他們應對當前的環境。

In our LatAm business, with an excellent EBITDA margin of over 21% due to our strong market position principally -- these are principally in Brazil and our central cluster. Our sequential margin showed a small fall in the last quarter as a result of some operational issues in one of our larger mills in our central cluster, which is now being resolved. The region still has significant growth opportunities for us to develop in the years ahead.

在拉丁美洲業務中，由於我們強大的市場地位（主要在巴西和我們的中心集群），我們的 EBITDA 利潤率超過 21%，表現出色。由於我們中心集群中一家大型工廠出現了一些營運問題，導致我們上一季的環比利潤率略有下降，目前這些問題正在解決。未來幾年，該地區仍蘊藏著巨大的發展機會。

Turning now to the group and regional highlights, what I'm very happy with is the initial potential of the combination as evident in our cash flow performance in the quarter. With operating cash delivered $1.1 billion and an adjusted free cash flow of approximately $850 million -- $580 million. One of the things that especially pleases me about this number is that we're really only starting to get going on working capital optimization as we continue to focus on operating excellence. I'm also very happy to have the people in the new Smurfit Westrock have come together and adapted to the culture of the company and its values of loyalty, integrity and respect and safety adoption by everyone in the workplace.

現在來看集團和區域亮點，我非常滿意的是此次合併的初步潛力，這在我們本季的現金流表現中顯而易見。經營活動產生的現金流為 11 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 8.5 億美元 - 5.8 億美元。這個數字讓我特別高興的一點是，我們才剛開始進行營運資本優化，同時我們將繼續專注於卓越營運。我也很高興看到新 Smurfit Westrock 的員工們團結一致，適應了公司的文化和價值觀，包括忠誠、正直和尊重，以及工作場所中每個人對安全的重視。

The group has also been working effectively on the synergy program, which Ken will speak on further, which is exceeding our expectations, especially when one looks at the commercial improvements that we can see across the businesses. Finally, in the group, not only in North America, but also in Latin America and Europe, we continue to optimize our asset base with the recent closure of a facility in Brazil and the transfer of equipment to other operating units. Together with constant trimming of our assets in our European sphere.

該集團在協同效應計劃方面也取得了顯著成效，肯將對此進行更詳細的介紹。該計劃超出了我們的預期，尤其是在我們看到各個業務部門取得的商業改進方面。最後，集團不僅在北美，而且在拉丁美洲和歐洲，都在不斷優化我們的資產基礎，最近關閉了巴西的一家工廠，並將設備轉移到其他營運部門。同時，我們也不斷精簡在歐洲地區的資產。

In terms of the regions, as I've mentioned, we continue to make excellent progress across our North American system. For example, in corrugated, our loss-making units have declined by almost 50% in a one-year period with today, over 70% of our corrugated operations solidly profitable. And we expect significantly more progress to occur as we replace and swap out uneconomical volume.

就區域而言，正如我之前提到的，我們在北美體系中繼續取得卓越的進展。例如，在瓦楞紙板業務方面，我們的虧損部門在一年內減少了近 50%，而如今，我們超過 70% 的瓦楞紙板業務都實現了穩健盈利。我們預計，隨著我們逐步淘汰不經濟的產品，將會取得更大的進展。

In our consumer business, this business is very well positioned with substantial investments and restructuring already done. With strong positions in SBS and CUK, we're actively working to transfer customers from CRB to these grades and have already switched about $100 million worth of business. We do, however, believe in offering all three substrates to our customer mix.

在我們的消費品業務方面，這項業務發展勢頭良好，並且已經進行了大量投資和重組。憑藉在 SBS 和 CUK 領域的強大實力，我們正在積極努力將客戶從 CRB 轉移到這些等級，目前已經轉移了價值約 1 億美元的業務。但是，我們相信應該向客戶提供這三種基材。

Our first Global Innovation Summit was held in Virginia in September. And the rollout of our experience centers in our North American region, while in its infancy, is now happening. In EMEA and APAC, our integrated model is really proving the success of our business. Our mills are well utilized, and our outstanding position and innovative offering is retaining and developing customers.

我們的首屆全球創新高峰會於9月在維吉尼亞州舉行。我們在北美地區的體驗中心推廣工作雖然還處於起步階段，但現在已經開始了。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區，我們的一體化模式確實證明了我們業務的成功。我們的工廠利用率很高，我們卓越的市場地位和創新的產品正在留住並發展客戶。

One of the great opportunities for us has been the effective integration of our consumer operations into our European business. We have a vastly greater customer base to introduce to our consumer operations into Europe and moving these businesses back to local sales and manufacturing accountability has already started to see some significant benefits. And finally, during the quarter, the rationalization of two of our German converting plants has been agreed. This will significantly strengthen our leading German position as we await the inevitable upturn.

對我們來說，最大的機會之一就是將我們的消費者業務有效地整合到我們的歐洲業務中。我們擁有龐大的客戶群，可以將其引入歐洲的消費業務，而將這些業務重新納入本地銷售和製造責任制已經開始產生一些顯著的好處。最後，在本季度，我們已就兩家德國加工廠的合理化方案達成協議。這將大大鞏固我們在德國的領先地位，我們期待經濟不可避免的復甦。

Turning to Latin America. I'm increasingly excited about our Brazilian operations. The legacy Smurfit and legacy Westrock businesses are a perfect fit with one concentrated on recycled containerboard and the other on virgin kraftliner. Our converting businesses have quickly adopted our value over volume focus, which is already showing significant improvements.

轉向拉丁美洲。我對我們在巴西的業務越來越感到興奮。Smurfit 和 Westrock 兩家公司業務完美契合，一家專注於再生箱板紙，另一家專注於原生牛皮紙。我們的轉型業務已經迅速接受了我們以價值而非數量為導向的理念，並且已經取得了顯著的成效。

In our Colombian business, we experienced significant growth of 8% and due to our commercial offering and the market developing as a growing exporter of fruits and vegetables. Across the region, we're capitalizing on many of the growth and development opportunities we have -- for example, in Chile and Peru, where our volumes grew by 15% and 25%, respectively, during the third quarter.

我們在哥倫比亞的業務實現了 8% 的顯著成長，這得益於我們的商業產品和市場的發展，我們已成為不斷增長的水果和蔬菜出口國。在整個地區，我們正在充分利用我們所擁有的許多成長和發展機會——例如，在智利和秘魯，我們在第三季的銷量分別成長了 15% 和 25%。

I'd like to give you a sense of the excitement that exists and is building in within Smurfit Westrock company today. We're a stronger and better company through the adoption of the owner-operator model. Everyone across our world is now responsible for their own P&Ls. This has unleashed a tremendous enthusiasm and internal competition to do better and lends itself perfectly into having a performance-led culture where everybody is responsible for what they do.

我想讓大家感受到史莫菲特·韋斯特羅克公司如今所存在的、並且不斷增強的興奮氛圍。透過採用業主經營模式，我們成為了一家更強大、更優秀的公司。現在全世界每個人都要對自己的損益負責。這激發了員工極大的熱情和內部競爭，促使他們做得更好，並完美地創造了一種以績效為導向的企業文化，在這種文化中，每個人都對自己的工作負責。

I'm especially pleased that we have now initiated global and regional leadership programs, whereby over 300 managers will have started our group programs. In Smurfit Westrock, people are at the heart of everything we do, and we ensure that they have the tools to succeed in their job and to realize their potential. Our synergy programs and optimize asset base, together with our innovation offering and transfer of best practice will, we believe, contribute to superior performance in the future.

我特別感到高興的是，我們現在已經啟動了全球和區域領導力項目，超過 300 名經理已經參加了我們的團體項目。在 Smurfit Westrock，人是我們一切工作的核心，我們確保員工擁有在工作中取得成功並發揮自身潛力所需的工具。我們相信，我們的協同規劃和優化資產基礎，加上我們的創新產品和最佳實踐轉移，將有助於我們在未來取得更優異的績效。

I'll now hand you over to Ken, who will take you through the financials.

現在我將把發言權交給肯，他將為大家講解財務方面的內容。

Thank you, Tony. Good morning, everyone, and thank you again for taking the time to join us. On slide 8, you'll see the business again delivered another strong performance in the third quarter, with net sales of $8 billion, adjusted EBITDA in line with our stated guidance of $1.3 billion, a very solid adjusted EBITDA margin for the group of over 16% and a strong adjusted free cash flow of $579 million. The performance reflects the strength and resilience provided by a diversified geographic footprint and product portfolio, particularly in the challenging macroeconomic environment, and of course, the commitment and dedication of our people to delivering for all our customers.

謝謝你，托尼。各位早安，再次感謝大家抽空參加。在第 8 張幻燈片中，您將看到該業務在第三季度再次取得了強勁的業績，淨銷售額為 80 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 與我們此前公佈的 13 億美元的指導一致，集團調整後 EBITDA 利潤率非常穩健，超過 16%，調整後自由現金流強勁，達到 5.79 億美元。這項業績反映了多元化的地域佈局和產品組合所帶來的實力和韌性，尤其是在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境下，當然也反映了我們員工致力於為所有客戶提供優質服務的承諾和奉獻精神。

Turning now to the reported performance of our three segments and starting with North America, where our operations delivered net sales of $4.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $810 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2% and (inaudible). In the region, we saw continued margin improvement, predominantly due to higher selling prices, our operating model in action and the benefits of our synergy program alongside input cost relief on recovered fiber, which combined to more than offset lower volumes and headwinds and items such as energy, labor and mill downtime.

現在來看看我們三個業務部門的業績報告，首先是北美地區，我們的業務淨銷售額為 47 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.1 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.2%。（聽不清楚）在該地區，我們看到利潤率持續改善，這主要歸功於更高的售價、我們運營模式的實施以及協同效應計劃帶來的益處，同時回收纖維的投入成本也得到了降低，這些因素加在一起，足以抵消銷量下降以及能源、勞動力和工廠停工等不利因素。

Corrugated box pricing was higher compared to the prior year, while box volumes were 7.5% lower on an absolute basis and an 8.7% on a same-day basis. an outcome very much in line with our ongoing value over volume strategy, which we estimate accounts for about two-thirds of that volume performance. Third-party paper sales were 1% lower, while consumer packaging shipments were down 5.8%.

與前一年相比，瓦楞紙箱價格上漲，而紙箱銷量絕對值下降了7.5%，當日銷量下降了8.7%。這一結果與我們持續推行的價值優先於銷量的策略非常吻合，我們估計該策略約佔銷量成長的三分之二。第三方紙張銷量下降了 1%，而消費品包裝出貨量則下降了 5.8%。

And with shipments in our smaller mixing operations being lower than our US business, which saw volumes down 3.7%. Our differentiated innovative and sustainable approach to packaging continues to resonate with customers which, coupled with the empowerment of our people to drop uneconomic business and the implementation of our owner-operator model, is driving continuous business improvement across the region.

而且，我們規模較小的混合業務的出貨量低於我們的美國業務，美國業務的出貨量下降了 3.7%。我們差異化的創新和永續的包裝方法持續受到客戶的共鳴，再加上我們賦予員工放棄不經濟業務的權力以及我們業主經營模式的實施，正在推動整個地區的業務持續改進。

Looking now at EMEA and APAC segment, where we delivered net sales of $2.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $419 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.8%. Despite the challenging market backdrop, our operations remained resilient with adjusted EBITDA moderately ahead of the prior year. This performance reflects the scale of our local teams in managing a highly volatile cost environment and underscores the effectiveness of our integrated operating model, where we have consistently delivered an operating rate in our containerboard mills in the mid-90s.

現在來看看 EMEA 和 APAC 業務板塊，我們實現了 28 億美元的淨銷售額、4.19 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 14.8% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們的營運仍保持韌性，調整後的 EBITDA 略高於上年同期水準。這項業績反映了我們本地團隊在應對高度波動的成本環境方面的規模，並突顯了我們一體化營運模式的有效性，在該模式下，我們一直保持著箱板紙廠 90 年代中期的營運率。

Higher corrugated box prices year on year, alongside lower recovered fiber costs and a net currency translation benefit were partly offset by headwinds on energy and labor and lower third-party paper prices. While corrugated box volumes remained flat on both an absolute and same-day basis.

瓦楞紙箱價格逐年上漲，回收纖維成本下降，以及貨幣換算帶來的淨收益，部分被能源和勞動成本上升以及第三方紙張價格下降所抵銷。瓦楞紙箱的銷售量無論從絕對值或當日銷量來看都保持穩定。

We believe we are the market leader in Europe with strong market positions and a proven operating model. Supported by our best-in-class asset base, which allows our people to continue to deliver high-quality sustainable packaging solutions for all our customers. This position is supported by our approach to innovation where we have a large data set and bespoke applications that place the customer at the center of that conversation.

我們相信，憑藉著強大的市場地位和成熟的營運模式，我們是歐洲市場的領導者。憑藉我們一流的資產基礎，我們的員工能夠繼續為所有客戶提供高品質的永續包裝解決方案。這一立場得益於我們的創新方法，我們擁有龐大的數據集和定制應用程序，並將客戶置於對話的中心。

Our LatAm segment again remained very strong in the quarter with net sales of $0.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $116 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of over 21%. Corrugated above lines are flat year on year or 1% higher on a same-day basis, with the demand picture in the region showing a marked improvement with strong demand growth in Argentina, Colombia and Chile, amongst others. All while our value over volume strategy continues to deliver strong results in Brazil as we have now largely phased out unprofitable legacy contracts with volumes, with volumes that are moving into a more neutral position.

本季度，我們的拉丁美洲業務部門再次保持強勁勢頭，淨銷售額達 5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.16 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 21%。瓦楞紙板上述生產線與去年同期持平或比去年同期增長 1%，該地區的需求情況明顯改善，阿根廷、哥倫比亞和智利等國的需求增長強勁。同時，我們以價值而非數量為導向的策略在巴西繼續取得強勁的成果，因為我們現在已經基本取消了無利可圖的舊合同，而數量正朝著更加中性的方向發展。

The region successfully implemented pricing initiatives to offset higher operating costs delivered a consistently strong performance with a small step down in EBITDA margin year over year due to a never resolved issue in one of our operations during the quarter. As the only pan-regional player, we believe that Latin America continues to be a region of high-growth potential for Smurfit Westrock, both organic and inorganic, and one where we are well positioned to drive long-term success.

該地區成功實施了定價策略以抵消較高的營運成本，業績持續強勁，但由於本季度我們某項營運中存在一個始終未能解決的問題，導致 EBITDA 利潤率同比略有下降。作為唯一一家泛區域企業，我們相信拉丁美洲對於 Smurfit Westrock 而言，無論是有機增長還是無機增長，都具有很高的增長潛力，而我們已做好充分準備，推動該地區的長期成功。

Slide 10 outlines our proven capital allocation framework. I don't propose to go through each of these that today, but I would note that in February, we plan to provide detail on how we see capital allocation underpinning the achievement of our long-term business goals. What is new is that our CapEx target for 2026 will be between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion, broadly in line with the current year. We continue to invest ahead of depreciation and so this level remains accretive to earnings as we invest behind identify growth, efficiency, sustainability and cost takeout opportunities.

第 10 頁概述了我們行之有效的資本配置架構。我今天不打算逐一介紹這些內容，但我需要指出的是，我們計劃在二月份詳細說明我們如何看待資本配置來支撐我們長期業務目標的實現。新變化是，我們 2026 年的資本支出目標將在 24 億美元至 25 億美元之間，與今年大致持平。我們持續在折舊之前進行投資，因此這一水準仍能增加收益，因為我們在發現成長、效率、永續性和成本削減機會的同時，也進行後續投資。

The core tenet of our capital allocation framework is that it must be flexible and agile. This was our approach at Smurfit Kappa and continues to be our approach at Smurfit Westrock. It is a proven track record of delivery, and we are already seeing the benefits of it since forming Smurfit Westrock a little over a year ago.

我們的資本配置架構的核心原則是必須靈活敏捷。這就是我們在 Smurfit Kappa 採取的方法，也是我們在 Smurfit Westrock 繼續採取的方法。它擁有可靠的業績記錄，自從一年多前成立 Smurfit Westrock 以來，我們已經看到了它帶來的好處。

Our approach to allocating capital is disciplined and rigorous and requires that all internal projects are benchmarked against all of the capital allocation alternatives and is, therefore, always returns focused. On our synergy program. I'm pleased to confirm we are delivering as planned and on track to deliver $400 million of full run rate savings exiting this year.

我們採取的資本配置方法嚴謹而嚴格，要求所有內部專案都必須與所有資本配置方案進行基準比較，因此始終以回報為導向。在我們的協同計劃中。我很高興地確認，我們正在按計劃推進，並預計在今年年底前實現 4 億美元的全面營運節約目標。

And finally, for me, as noted in the release, the year-to-date has been characterized by a challenging demand backdrop, and as a result, we expect to take additional economic downtime in the fourth quarter to optimize our system. If you recall, we set out our guidance for the year in April. Given the impact from the above, we are now marginally adjusting that guidance range to where we now expect to deliver full year adjusted EBITDA of between $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion.

最後，正如新聞稿中所述，今年迄今為止，市場需求環境充滿挑戰，因此，我們預計將在第四季度採取額外的經濟停擺措施來優化我們的系統。如果你還記得的話，我們在四月制定了今年的發展方向。鑑於上述情況的影響，我們現在略微調整了業績指引範圍，預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 49 億美元至 51 億美元之間。

And with that, I'll pass it back to Tony for some concluding remarks.

接下來，我將把發言權交還給托尼，請他做總結發言。

Thank you, Ken. I hope you get a sense from my earlier commentary and Ken's performance summary that we believe that Smurfit Westrock is very well positioned for continued performance as well and the economic growth as it revives, I would say the company has never been in better position. Throughout the company, all of the people that are aligned with this approach, and we can already see the tangible benefits of this as many loss-making operations move into profit and thankfully, with much more to come.

謝謝你，肯。我希望您能從我之前的評論和 Ken 的業績總結中感受到，我們相信 Smurfit Westrock 已經做好充分準備，能夠繼續保持良好的業績，並且隨著經濟增長的複蘇，我認為該公司從未處於如此有利的地位。公司上下所有員工都認同這種做法，我們已經看到了切實的好處，許多虧損的業務都扭虧為盈，值得慶幸的是，未來還會有更多業務實現盈利。

Reflecting the generally well-invested asset base, our capital spend for full year '26 is expected to be in a $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion range. We believe this level enables us to accelerate cost takeout increase operating efficiency and capitalize in high-growth areas. In parallel, we recently announced restructuring initiatives, which also allow us to continue to optimize our asset base.

鑑於資產基礎投資狀況良好，我們預計 2026 年全年資本支出將在 24 億美元至 25 億美元之間。我們相信，這一水準使我們能夠加快成本削減，提高營運效率，並在高成長領域獲得收益。同時，我們近期宣布了重組計劃，這也使我們能夠繼續優化我們的資產基礎。

As a more general point, our philosophy has generally been to buy and not build. As we have typically acquired at a fraction of the replacement cost is invariably cheaper with an enhanced returns profile. On acquisition, our objective is always to optimize through measured capital allocation decisions. We will discuss this further in February, and Ken has already touched on this.

更普遍地說，我們的理念通常是購買而不是建造。我們通常以遠低於重置成本的價格購買產品，而且價格通常更低，收益也更高。在收購過程中，我們的目標始終是透過審慎的資本配置決策來實現最佳化。我們將在二月進一步討論這個問題，肯已經談到這一點。

The delivery of our synergy program, together with our ongoing capacity rationalization remains a constant focus. With a significant headcount reduction of over 4,500 people and an unrelenting focus on the owner-operator model, we believe our performance to date is an indication of our potential.

我們的協同增效計畫的實施，以及持續的產能合理化，始終是我們的工作重點。透過大幅裁員 4500 多人，並堅持不懈地專注於業主經營模式，我們相信我們迄今為止的業績表明了我們的潛力。

We remain confident that our footprint remains unrivaled with strong and leading market positions in the majority of the markets and grades of paper in which we operate. There is no question in our minds that since Smurfit Kappa and Westrock combined, we are building a stronger and better business with management aligned with shareholders and developing our performance-led culture.

我們仍然堅信，在我們經營的大多數市場和紙張等級中，我們的市場份額依然無可匹敵，並擁有強大的市場領先地位。我們毫不懷疑，自從 Smurfit Kappa 和 Westrock 合併以來，我們正在打造一個更強大、更優秀的企業，管理層與股東目標一致，並發展以業績為導向的企業文化。

Over the last 16 months, we have taken significant steps to build this better business, and we are increasingly confident in the future prospects. While for sure, the current economic outlook is somewhat muted, our view is that the steps we are taking, investments we're making, the alignment we have with shareholders and the culture we're building within Smurfit Westrock positions us to go from strength to strength as economies improve.

在過去的16個月裡，我們採取了重大措施來打造更好的業務，我們對未來的前景越來越有信心。雖然當前的經濟前景確實有些黯淡，但我們認為，隨著經濟的改善，我們正在採取的措施、正在進行的投資、與股東的利益一致以及我們在 Smurfit Westrock 內部建立的企業文化，都將使我們不斷發展壯大。

We end full year '25 and enter '26 as a better and stronger Smurfit Westrock. To that end, in February 26, we will be setting out our longer-term targets, which are a bottom-up approach from all of our businesses, which will be designated to identify prospects for this company as we look forward into the future.

我們以更強大、更優秀的 Smurfit Westrock 的姿態結束了 2025 年，並​​進入了 2026 年。為此，我們將於 2 月 26 日制定長期目標，這是我們所有業務自下而上的方法，旨在為公司未來的發展尋找前景。

So thank you for your attention, and I look forward to taking any questions that you may have. Thank you, operator, over to you.

謝謝大家的關注，我期待回答大家可能提出的任何問題。謝謝接線員，請接聽。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Thank you, Tony, Ken, Ciaran, for taking my questions and congrats on all the progress. Tony, you mentioned obviously, weakness in the European market from both the demand and price, is there anything you could do to expedite cost take out? You mentioned, obviously, continuing to trim assets in Europe, rationalizing the two driven plans. But given the weakness that persists there right now, can you expedite cost take out to try to get things rightsized faster?

謝謝Tony、Ken、Ciaran回答我的問題，也恭喜你們取得的所有進展。東尼，你顯然提到了歐洲市場需求和價格的疲軟，有沒有辦法加快成本削減？顯然，您提到了繼續削減歐洲資產，並對兩個主要計劃進行合理化調整。但鑑於目前仍存在的疲軟態勢，您能否加快削減成本，以便更快地調整到合適的規模？

I think -- Mike, thanks for the question. I would say that we have done a really good job over 15 years of optimizing our capacity in Europe. Obviously, there's always little things to be done, but we're running our system pretty well full in Europe with the exception of August and probably December where we'll take some downtime because those months typically are months where the corrugated box plants closed for holidays, so our system is pretty well optimized.

我想——麥克，謝謝你的提問。我認為，在過去的15年裡，我們在優化歐洲產能方面做得非常出色。顯然，總有一些小事要做，但除了 8 月和 12 月（我們可能會在這兩個月停工一段時間，因為瓦楞紙箱廠通常會放假）之外，我們在歐洲的系統運行得相當不錯，所以我們的系統已經得到了很好的優化。

Obviously, we continue to look at it. We're basically a low-cost producer in the European market. And when you look at our returns and you look at some of the other competitors' returns that have been publicly available, and obviously, we get a sense of how some of the private guys are doing, we're far exceeding the returns in Europe and -- so unfortunately, it is a question you already seen a number of mill closures around the place.

顯然，我們會繼續關注此事。我們基本上是歐洲市場上的低成本生產商。當你查看我們的收益，再看看其他一些公開的競爭對手的收益，顯然，我們就能了解一些私營企業的經營狀況，我們的收益遠遠超過了歐洲的水平——所以不幸的是，你已經看到各地有很多工廠倒閉了。

I think we're going to see more, and I think that the pain is very, very real, and you can see even some public companies with negative EBITDA margins in the container board business in a very significant way. So I think the old saying, the worse it gets, the better it will get, well, it's pretty bad right now. And I think when it turns, it will turn very sharply. And so that's what we are waiting for. Obviously, as I said, that doesn't mean we're sitting on our hands doing nothing.

我認為我們會看到更多這樣的情況，而且我認為這種痛苦是真實存在的，你甚至可以看到一些上市公司的貨櫃紙板業務出現了非常嚴重的 EBITDA 利潤率為負的情況。所以我覺得那句老話「越糟糕，就越會好轉」很貼切，因為現在的情況確實很糟糕。而且我認為，當它轉向時，轉向會非常急促。所以，這就是我們所等待的。顯然，正如我所說，這並不意味著我們會袖手旁觀，無所事事。

We're continuing to close a few facilities here and there, not very big ones, but we've done a number of stuff, and we have a very, very active cost takeout program across all of the business to mitigate all of the wage inflation that we've had over the last number of years. But -- so cost reduction programs do not stop. They're continual, and we continue to look at our asset base and will trim if necessary.

我們正在繼續關閉一些工廠，規模都不大，但我們確實做了一些工作，並且我們在整個業務範圍內實施了非常積極的成本削減計劃，以緩解過去幾年來的工資上漲。但是——因此，成本削減計劃不會停止。我們會持續關注資產基礎，並在必要時縮減。

Got it. And then just two quick follow-ups. Any color you can provide in terms of how demand trended in both North America and Europe in September and what you've seen thus far in October and any outlook in November?

知道了。然後還有兩個簡短的後續問題。您能否提供一些關於9月份北美和歐洲需求趨勢、10月份至今的需求狀況以及11月份的展望？

And then just quickly on consumer because it was interesting you mentioned transferring $100 million of CRB business to SBS and CUK. Can you just help us frame the logic behind those moves? Is it just a matter of wanting to run SBS more efficiently at a higher rate? And is there any margin uplift associated with that shift? Thank you.

然後，關於消費者問題，我只想快速問一下，因為您提到將價值 1 億美元的 CRB 業務轉移給 SBS 和 CUK，這很有趣。您能否幫我們整理一下這些舉措背後的邏輯？只是想以更高的效率和速率運行 SBS 嗎？這種轉變是否會帶來利潤率的提升？謝謝。

Taking your second question first. I mean, basically, as the SBS price has trended downwards. Because SBS, you can run with a different sheet, and you can use a lower grammage. It's basically become competitive with CRB and there are positive qualities to SBS versus CRB in the sense of brightness and transportation costs, so -- and runability on printing machines. So I'm not saying that CRB is all bad. It's not.

先回答你的第二個問題。我的意思是，基本上，因為SBS的價格呈下降趨勢。因為是SBS（單面反紡），所以你可以使用不同的紙張，也可以使用更低克重的紙張。它基本上已經可以與 CRB 競爭，而且 SBS 相對於 CRB 在亮度、運輸成本以及在印刷機上的運行性能方面都有積極的特點。所以我並不是說CRB一無是處。它不是。

There are certain customers that will really want CRB. There are certain customers that really want SBS and there are certain customers who want the CUK. And clearly, where the positioning is right now, it's just advantageous for our customers to look at SBS and so we've taken that opportunity. As well as some of the CRB issues where, again, you've got some opportunities to -- especially in the freezer for frozen products to move into CUK, which is something we're actively promoting. And I think, as I said, we've or so already transferred in the last four, five months, and I think more to come.

確實有一些客戶會非常需要CRB。有些客戶非常想要SBS，而有些客戶則想要CUK。顯然，就目前的市場定位而言，SBS 對我們的客戶來說是有利的，所以我們抓住了這個機會。除了 CRB 的一些問題之外，你還有一些機會——尤其是在冷凍產品方面，可以轉向 CUK，這是我們正在積極推廣的。正如我所說，在過去的四、五個月裡，我們已經進行了一些轉移，我認為未來還會有更多轉移。

On the first question, Mike, just remind me what was -- demand trends? Demand trends. I don't -- I could say that we were expecting to see an uptick in October, and we did not see it. Now you have to remember, Mike, one of the things that has happened is that we took on as in legacy WestRock to on business in the latter half and first half of last year that we were running in the second half of last year. And a lot of that business that was taken on was not necessarily very economic for us. So we have been addressing that during the first half of this year.

關於第一個問題，麥克，你先提醒我──需求趨勢──是什麼？需求趨勢。我不這麼認為——我可以說我們原本預期10月會出現成長，但我們並沒有看到成長。麥克，你得記住，其中一件事是，我們在去年下半年和上半年接管了 WestRock 的遺留業務，而這些業務是我們去年下半年一直在運營的。而且我們承接的許多業務對我們來說並不一定很經濟。所以，我們在今年上半年一直在解決這個問題。

And inevitably, that's when we tend to see that exiting again. Some of it will come back as we are a good supplier. We're very reliable and high quality and high service supplier. So we expect some of it to return at prices as we've seen already in Brazil, for example. We expect some of it to return at a certain point in the future at the prices that make it economic for us. And if it doesn't, well, so be it, we'll go out and get some other business.

而不可避免地，我們往往會在這個時候再次看到這種情況發生。部分貨款會退回來，因為我們是信譽良好的供應商。我們是一家非常可靠、產品品質高、服務周到的供應商。因此，我們預計其中一部分資產將以我們已經在巴西等地看到的價格回歸。我們預計未來某個時候，其中一部分資產會以對我們有利的價格回歸。如果不行，那也沒辦法，我們就出去做其他生意。

But when you lose big chunks of business, Mike, it tends to go and get 10 chunks of smaller business, it tends to take you a little bit longer, and that's what we're seeing. But we have a huge pipeline of business in our system. We won't land at all. But certainly, our people are very comfortable and confident that we're going to get it. And as I said in my script, we're already seeing some very significant customer wins in high-quality names at levels that are going to be good for us to run that.

但是，麥克，當你失去大塊業務時，想要獲得 10 塊較小的業務，往往需要更長的時間，而這正是我們現在所看到的。但我們的系統裡有大量的業務正在籌備中。我們根本不會降落。但可以肯定的是，我們的人員非常有信心，我們一定能成功。正如我在稿子裡所說，我們已經在一些高品質客戶中取得了非常重要的進展，這些進展對我們開展業務來說是有利的。

Got it, Tony. Thank you very much and good luck for the remainder of the year.

明白了，東尼。非常感謝，祝您今年餘下的日子一切順利。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questionnaire. So Tony, you mentioned you're going to be taking some economic downtime in the fourth quarter. Curious what markets is this North America is Europe? How should we quantify the EBITDA impact? And appreciating you're walking away from -- you're taking a value-over-volume approach. But as we kind of think about how that translates, how should we think about that spread of your value versus the market overall, call it, the next 12 months?

嘿，大家好。感謝您填寫我的問卷。東尼，你提到你將在第四季暫停一些經濟活動。很好奇，這裡說的市場是指北美還是歐洲？我們應該如何量化 EBITDA 的影響？而且，你正在放棄──你採取的是價值而非數量的方法。但當我們思考如何將其轉化為實際收益時，我們該如何看待你的價值與整個市場（比如說未來 12 個月）之間的差距呢？

Yes. With regard to -- I'll let Ken take the downtime question. But with regard to -- we're sort of figuring out that -- we believe that the market is down somewhere around 3% or 4%, and we're probably down 5% of our loss of volume is due to our own decision making. That's the sort of number that we -- it's not going to be 100% accurate in that. It could be 3%. It could be 4% market down, but you saw one of our larger peers was down 3% in the quarter and one would have said that they're probably winning some business in the marketplace. So therefore, taking that as a trend then I would say that the market is probably down a little bit more than that 3%.

是的。關於停機時間的問題，我請 Ken 來回答。但就目前的情況來看——我們正在努力弄清楚——我們認為市場下跌了大約 3% 或 4%，而我們自身下跌了 5%，交易量的損失是由於我們自己的決策造成的。這種數字我們只能說──它不可能百分之百準確。可能是3%。市場可能下跌了 4%，但你也看到我們的一家大型同業本季下跌了 3%，有人可能會說他們可能在市場上贏得了一些業務。所以，如果把這當作一種趨勢，那麼我認為市場下跌的幅度可能略大於 3%。

Hey, Phil. I think to take the second part of that question first, I think the simplest way to quantify the EBITDA impact is broadly, if you think about where our guidance was, where we're bringing the two, call it, somewhere between $60 million to $70 million is the incremental impact of downtime in the fourth quarter versus what we previously would have said. I think, look, if we think about operating it in Europe and also in the mid-90s, unlikely to see any material for the remainder the year, any material incremental downtime in Europe. So predominantly, it's going to be across the North American region because Latin America, we don't really see any downtime there either.

嘿，菲爾。我認為，首先回答這個問題的第二部分，量化 EBITDA 影響的最簡單方法是，大致來說，想想我們之前的預期，我們現在將兩者結合起來，假設第四季度停工造成的增量影響在 6000 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間，這與我們之前所說的相比。我認為，如果我們考慮在歐洲運營，以及在 90 年代中期，那麼今年剩餘時間裡，歐洲不太可能出現任何實質的額外停機時間。所以，主要影響範圍將是北美地區，因為在拉丁美洲，我們也沒有看到任何停工期。

Ken, do you expect your inventory to be in a pretty good spot as you exit this year in North America?

Ken，你預計今年北美市場的庫存狀況會比較理想嗎？

It's getting there, Philip. It's -- supply chains in North America is different in Europe in the sense that they're very, very long. So it takes a while to kind of get back to what you might like as kind of optimal inventory. The working capital as a percentage of sales for the group is probably around 15%, it is kind of higher than we'd like it to be. Smurfit Kappa were down in kind of 8.9%. Don't expect it to get there over time, but certainly, the somewhere in the middle there, the right answer is.

快了，菲利普。北美的供應鏈與歐洲的供應鏈不同，北美的供應鏈非常非常長。所以需要一段時間才能恢復到你理想中的最佳庫存水準。集團的營運資本佔銷售額的比例大概在 15% 左右，比我們希望的要高一些。Smurfit Kappa 下跌了 8.9%。不要指望它最終會達到那個狀態，但可以肯定的是，介於兩者之間的某個位置，就是正確的答案。

You have to remember, as a third-party seller, Westrock over the years had grown into a number of different grades and the numbers there with the paper. So part of the optimization here is kind of bringing it back to not quite Henry Ford. We're getting it back to a place where it's a reasonable set of grades and fluid sizes and widths that we feel are optimal for not only the paper system, but the corrugated system and the need for our customers. So it's all part of -- it all really comes back to helping our customers understand what their boxes need rather than just supplying what they think they might want.

你要記住，作為第三方賣家，Westrock 多年來已經發展出許多不同的等級，紙張的數量也隨之增加。所以，這裡優化的一部分就是讓它回歸到亨利福特的風格，但又不完全是那種風格。我們正在努力使其恢復到合理的等級、流體尺寸和寬度組合，我們認為這不僅適用於紙張系統，也適用於瓦楞紙系統，並且能夠滿足我們客戶的需求。所以這一切都是——歸根結底，都是幫助我們的客戶了解他們的盒子需要什麼，而不是只提供他們認為自己可能想要的東西。

So I don't think we'll exit this year in perfect shape, Philip. But I think as we kind of move through '26, it gets incrementally better as we kind of understand the supply chain is a bit better and rationalize kind of external board grades.

所以我覺得我們今年不會以完美的狀態結束，菲利普。但我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，情況會逐漸好轉，因為我們對供應鏈的了解有所改善，並且對外部板材等級進行了合理化調整。

Philip, if I can just add on to that, I'm really very excited about as we optimize our supply chain system and work through our board grade combinations that together with the corrugated businesses in our system, that this is going to present a big opportunity for us. But it needs careful thought and planning because, as Ken has just rightly said, the distances in America are very big, and we've got to make sure that we get that right, but there's a lot of opportunity there for us to reduce stock.

Philip，如果我可以補充一點，我真的非常興奮，因為隨著我們優化供應鏈系統並完善紙板等級組合，再加上我們系統中的瓦楞紙板業務，這將為我們帶來巨大的機會。但這需要仔細思考和計劃，因為正如肯剛才正確指出的那樣，美國的距離非常大，我們必須確保我們做對了，但這也給我們提供了很多減少庫存的機會。

Got it. And sorry, one last one for me. Tony, I thought your comment about pivoting some of your CRB, CUK business to SBS was fastening. That sounds like a pretty attractive value prop for our customers. You gave us the CapEx guidance for '26 as well. Embedded in that, is there any mill conversions that you're possibly thinking in SBS? Or do you feel pretty good about some of the opportunities you see in front of you on the SBS side, you're going to largely keep your footprint intact at this point?

知道了。抱歉，我最後一個問題。東尼，我覺得你關於將部分 CRB、CUK 業務轉移到 SBS 的評論很有道理。這聽起來對我們的客戶來說是一個非常有吸引力的價值主張。您也提供了 2026 年的資本支出指引。其中，您是否考慮過SBS中的任何工廠轉換？或者，您對SBS方面面臨的一些機會感到非常滿意，並打算在目前階段基本維持現狀？

If you -- if I could just ask you to hold off until February for that because we'll give you a full answer then because clearly, we're working through some different strategies in relation to that. And then we'll give you a better -- once we've organized that, we'll tell you about that. But basically, we have some very, very good assets that we will continue to look at. And obviously, there's some that we will continue to evaluate and give you a better answer to those in February.

如果您—如果我可以請您等到二月再做決定，因為屆時我們會給您一個完整的答复，因為很明顯，我們正在研究一些不同的策略來解決這個問題。然後我們會給你一個更好的方案——一旦我們安排好，我們會告訴你。但總的來說，我們擁有一些非常非常好的資產，我們會繼續關注它們。當然，還有一些問題我們會繼續評估，並在二月給您一個更好的答案。

Okay. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

好的。太感謝了。非常感謝。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

Gabe Hajde，富國證券。

Tony, Ken, and Ciaran, good morning. I wanted to ask about the guidance, the CapEx guidance for '26 and maybe a little bit differently. I'm just curious if the organization for the year, if there's anything strategically that you guys are focused more on cash flow for 2026 versus EBITDA, sometimes that drives different operating behavior. I'll just stop there.

Tony、Ken 和 Ciaran，早安。我想問一下關於 2026 年資本支出指導意見的問題，或許還可以問一些其他方面的問題。我只是好奇，就今年的組織而言，你們在策略上是否更關注 2026 年的現金流而不是 EBITDA，因為有時這會驅動不同的營運行為。我就說到這裡吧。

Gabe, no, not necessarily. I think it's more a case of the reality is that Smurfit Westrock should be -- and if you look at this quarter, particularly, a strong free cash flow generator in respect of the CapEx cycle. I think what we've always done, though, is be very disciplined about when we pay capital into the system. And indeed, adopting a kind of portfolio approach where you don't have too many big programs in any particular year, any big systems that are taking all the impact in a particular year and no region that kind of has that impact.

Gabe，不，不一定。我認為更確切地說，現實情況是，Smurfit Westrock 應該——尤其是如果你看看本季——在資本支出週期中成為一個強勁的自由現金流產生器。但我認為我們一直以來的做法是，在向系統中投入資金時保持非常嚴格的紀律。事實上，採取一種組合式方法，在任何特定年份都不會有太多的大型項目，也不會有任何大型系統在特定年份產生全部影響，更不會有任何地區產生這種影響。

But I think it's fair to say that when we went through the cycle this year and to Tony's earlier point, to fill building towards February, when we look at the capital requirements for '26, the reality is that all we feel we need to keep the system going and improving and growing is somewhere between 2.4 and 2.5. And that ultimately means that we don't end up with any kind of big build for CapEx going into '27, for example. But it's a normal phased approach.

但我認為可以公平地說，當我們回顧今年的周期，並像托尼之前提到的那樣，為了在二月份之前填滿建築，當我們審視2026年的資本需求時，現實情況是，我們認為維持系統運轉、改進和發展所需的資金大約在24億到25億之間。這最終意味著，例如，我們不會在任何2027年進行大規模的資本支出建設。但這是一種正常的循序漸進的方法。

So no, there's never a case of trying to, if you like, trying to get to a free cash flow number at the expense of EBITDA, that never is. I think it actually becomes more of a virtuous circle, which is you place capital into the system, we expect the returns out which should drive return on capital employed and $0.01 and also drive EBITDA. And then that capital goes back into the system.

所以，不，絕對不存在為了提高自由現金流而犧牲 EBITDA 的情況，絕對不存在。我認為這實際上會形成一個良性循環，即你向系統投入資本，我們期望獲得回報，這應該會推動資本回報率和 0.01 美元，也會推動 EBITDA。然後這些資金又會重新流入系統。

I sort of I look backwards to look forward a little bit here, Gabe, in the sense that as Smurfit Kappa, we place extra capital in the system, increase Rocky, increase the dividend, delevered and grew. So I think as the model if you like, from an owner operator perspective and a philosophical perspective, that's worked in the past. So no, it's not that we take that kind of that choice. It's actually -- that's the capital we think the business needs to kind of drive and grow.

Gabe，我在這裡回顧過去是為了更好地展望未來，因為作為 Smurfit Kappa，我們向系統投入了額外的資本，增加了 Rocky 的收益，提高了股息，降低了槓桿率，實現了增長。所以我認為，從車主經營者的角度來看，從哲學角度來看，這種模式在過去是行之有效的。所以，不，我們並沒有做出那個選擇。實際上——我們認為這正是企業發展壯大所需的資金。

Yes. And I'll just add to that, Gabe, that the whole philosophy of our company is to remain agile, as Kenneth said. We adapt to the situation that's around us. And one of the key tenets of our business is never to overinvest and have too much investment going forward that we can't back out of, so to speak, so that we're in a position to be able to flex if we need to because that's what really hurts companies, if you can't pivot depending on the environment, either positively or negatively. And so that's been the hallmark of the success of Smurfit Group, Smurfit Kappa and now hopefully in the future, Smurfit Westrock.

是的。我還要補充一點，Gabe，正如Kenneth所說，我們公司的整個理念就是保持敏捷。我們會適應周遭的環境。我們業務的關鍵原則之一就是永遠不要過度投資，不要在未來投入過多資金以至於無法撤回，這樣我們才能在需要時靈活調整，因為如果不能根據環境（無論是好是壞）進行調整，對公司來說才是真正的損失。因此，這成為了 Smurfit Group、Smurfit Kappa 以及未來 Smurfit Westrock 取得成功的標誌。

Thank you. I wanted to switch gears to Europe. You guys provided a little bit of color as to the -- I know the number kind of jumps off the page where you're underperforming the market. But over in Europe, I think up a little bit 0.2% is pretty impressive. You talked about the mills running mid-90s. Can you provide a little bit of color in the market, whether it's geographic or end use markets where you guys are doing particularly well?

謝謝。我想換個地方去歐洲。你們提供了一些細節資訊——我知道你們的業績低於市場平均水平，這個數字確實很引人注目。但在歐洲，我認為0.2%的漲幅相當可觀。你提到90年代中期工廠的運作。能否簡單介紹一下市場狀況，例如你們在哪些地區或終端用戶市場做得特別好？

And then I guess, maybe a little bit on the margin side. Obviously, prices kind of came up quite a bit in the spring and early summer and have come down, basically kind of given back a lot of that. How should we think about that flowing through -- is that hitting Q4 or is that really more of an H1 '26 event? Thank you.

然後我想，可能稍微有點偏向邊緣。顯然，春季和初夏的價格上漲了不少，現在已經回落，基本上已經回吐了許多漲幅。我們該如何看待這一趨勢——是會在第四季到來，還是更像是 2026 年上半年的事情？謝謝。

Just on the markets, in general, I would say that the -- there's no real change to what we've said previously that Germany continues to be a laggard -- some of the other markets in the UK, the Benelux tend to be basically flat with some positive movements in Eastern Europe and in Iberian Peninsula, which is growing strongly. So in general, there's no real change into how the markets are operating.

就市場整體而言，我認為——我們之前說過德國仍然落後，這一點並沒有真正的改變——英國、比荷盧經濟聯盟等其他一些市場基本上持平，東歐和伊比利亞半島則出現了一些積極的走勢，並且增長強勁。所以總的來說，市場運作方式並沒有真正的改變。

We sometimes flatter to receive in Germany where things get really good for a couple of weeks and then go back to the norm. So I think we haven't seen any material positivity in the German market yet. But inevitably, that will happen. And as I mentioned in my script, we're about to close two facilities with improved facilities in the incoming plants that are receiving capital. So when Germany does turn around, we'll be even better positioned than we were before to take advantage of that. With regard to...

我們有時會在德國受到熱情款待，那裡的氣氛會持續好幾個星期，然後又恢復原狀。所以我認為我們還沒有看到德國市場出現任何實質的正面跡象。但不可避免地，這種情況終將發生。正如我在稿子裡提到的，我們即將關閉兩家工廠，而即將獲得資金的新工廠將有更完善的設施。所以，當德國局勢好轉時，我們將比以前更有優勢從中獲益。關於...

On pricing, actually, third quarter and Europe we saw prices tick up by another 0.5%. So not quite done there yet on pricing. I suppose, ultimately, if we had a crystal ball and forecasting, I think where pricing goes mirrors dependent to -- read the same question we've had all day, which is where does demand go because that ultimately that to feed into what happens with paper prices. But irrespective of that, it's very much a kind of second quarter, third quarter question on '26 anyway based on where we sit now.

價格方面，實際上，第三季和歐洲的價格又上漲了 0.5%。所以定價方面還沒有完全定稿。我想，歸根結底，如果我們有水晶球並能進行預測，我認為價格走向取決於——也就是我們今天一直在討論的同一個問題，那就是需求走向——因為這最終會影響紙張價格的走勢。但不管怎樣，根據我們目前的情況來看，這很大程度上是 2026 年第二季或第三季的問題。

But I think it's fair to say that both regions have done really well in terms of pricing given the backdrop. I think particularly Europe in terms of price increases received and held, if you like, even through the third quarter. But I think it's demand dependent really in terms of where it goes from here.

但考慮到目前的情況，我認為這兩個地區在定價方面都做得非常出色。我認為歐洲尤其如此，價格上漲的情況一直持續到第三季。但我認為，它未來的走向其實取決於市場需求。

I think as well, Gabe if you look at where the paper price is at the moment, it's uneconomic for at least 75% of the business, I would say. And I think that we're lucky that we're very integrated. We've got our own customer. Our paper mills have our own customer, which is ourselves. And we're able to run basically full, but most of the others, demand is relatively weak.

我也這麼認為，Gabe，如果你看看目前的紙張價格，至少對 75% 的企業來說，這是不經濟的。我認為我們很幸運，因為我們的社會融合度很高。我們有自己的客戶。我們的造紙廠只有自己的客戶，那就是我們自己。我們基本上能夠滿載運轉，但其他大多數公司的需求都相對較弱。

And unless you're in the top quartile, you're not making any cash at this moment in time. And I would say you've seen that from the results of a number of players in the marketplace. And inevitably, that will change. The question is, is it first quarter, is it second quarter? Is it third quarter? And how much hurt will be in the market before then?

除非你躋身收入前25%，否則你目前是賺不到任何錢的。而且我認為，從市場上許多參與者的表現結果來看，這一點已經顯而易見。而這種情況終將改變。問題是，現在是第一季還是第二季？現在是第三季嗎？在此之前，市場會遭受多大的損失？

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行證券。

Hi, everyone. Thanks for all the details. Congratulations on the progress. Tony and Ken, I guess I have two questions for you. First of all, regarding the North American converting operations, in corrugated. I think you had mentioned that 70% of the business now is at -- and I forget exactly how you termed it, but better or acceptably profitable levels. If you could talk a bit more about what that means, recognizing that the margin in North America is maybe one of the proof points there. Can you help us quantify how you're determining the 70%, if that's the right ratio? And what else needs to occur to move the ball further recognize you made a lot of performance already progress already?

大家好。謝謝你提供的所有細節。恭喜你取得進展。Tony 和 Ken，我有兩個問題想問你們。首先，關於北美瓦楞紙板加工業務。我想你曾提到，目前 70% 的業務已經達到了——我忘了​​你具體是怎麼說的，但總之是盈利水平更好或可以接受的水平。如果您能再詳細談談這意味著什麼，認識北美地區的利潤率或許就是其中一個證明點。如果70%這個比例正確，您能否幫我們量化一下您是如何決定這個比例的？還有什麼需要發生才能讓事情進一步發展，承認你已經有了很大的進步？

Secondly, on the boxboard side, you made a couple of interesting comments about ultimately, in essence, the customer is going to choose a substrate that makes most sense, each of them, whether it's CUK, SBS, CRB has have their own unique aspects the fact that you're being able to move the SPS to a customer, when in theory, they would have already been in a grade that using your discussion point, they already would have liked to have been in, i.e., what's causing the move to SBS? Is it just purely where price is right now? Or what else are you reminding people of in terms of SBS' performance versus the other grades? Thank you, guys.

其次，關於紙板方面，您提出了一些有趣的評論，最終，本質上，客戶會選擇最合適的基材，每種基材，無論是 CUK、SBS 還是 CRB，都有其獨特的方面。事實上，您能夠將 SPS 轉移到客戶手中，而理論上，他們原本應該已經使用某種等級的紙板，正如您所討論的，他們本來就希望使用這種等級的紙板，也就是說，是什麼導致了轉向 SBS 呢？只是因為現在的價格嗎？或者，你還想提醒大家，SBS 的表現與其他年級相比有哪些優勢？謝謝大家。

Okay. Let me take the second one first, and then I'll come back to the North American corrugated. Basically, on the two, we've seen the SBS piece is more about brightness, there's a brighter sheet. Caliper, you can get the same performance from a slightly lower caliper. And then I would say, printability, stroke, machine efficiency on the customers' lines, which the three reasons why we've been able to sell SBS versus CRB. Of course, there will be some customers, George, as I said in my thing that will want CRB because it's a fully recycled sheet. And that's fine, too. And if people want that.

好的。讓我先拿第二個，然後再回來拿北美瓦楞紙板。基本上，我們已經看到，SBS 部分更注重亮度，畫面更亮。對於卡鉗來說，使用稍低的卡鉗也能達到相同的性能。然後我會說，印刷性、筆畫、客戶生產線的機器效率，這三點是我們能夠銷售 SBS 而不是 CRB 的原因。當然，喬治，正如我之前所說，會有一些顧客想要CRB，因為它是一種完全回收的板材。這也很好。如果人們想要那樣的話。

But we are selling SBS and it's competitive with where SBS price has gone. It's basically competitive now with CRB. And so therefore, we're comfortable to sell it to customers and we make good money at these current prices because, as I say, the caliper is lower. And we have basically our two SBS mills in the United States are very good mills in Demopolis and Covington.

但是我們銷售的SBS產品價格很有競爭力，符合SBS目前的市場價格水準。現在它基本上可以與CRB競爭了。因此，我們很樂意將它賣給顧客，而且以目前的價格我們也能賺到不錯的利潤，因為正如我所說，卡鉗尺寸更小。我們在美國基本上有兩個SBS工廠，分別位於德莫波利斯和科文頓，這兩個工廠都非常好。

So -- and then the CUK has got some unique properties for the freezer and strength for the freezer and again, a caliper issue that can help make it competitive against against the CRB sheet. So -- but that's -- again, some customers will prefer CRB, and we can offer them that too. So what we've been doing is because, obviously, we have got very, very good SBS mills and very good CUK mills that were -- we would offer them that. And as you know, we've closed the CRB mill. So we have open capacity to be able to sell SBS versus CRB. And that's been a big positive win for us, George, as we look forward, and it's going to be something that's going to continue, I would say.

所以——CUK 具有一些獨特的冷凍性能和冷凍強度，而且，厚度問題可以幫助它與 CRB 板材競爭。所以——但是——再說一遍，有些客戶會更喜歡 CRB，我們也可以為他們提供 CRB。所以我們一直在做的，很顯然，因為我們有非常非常好的 SBS 工廠和非常好的 CUK 工廠——我們會提供這些給他們。如您所知，我們已經關閉了 CRB 工廠。因此，我們有充足的產能來銷售SBS而不是CRB。喬治，展望未來，這對我們來說是一個巨大的積極勝利，而且我認為這種勢頭還會繼續下去。

With regard to our North American corrugated business, I mean, I think this is where you really see the owner-operator model in action. We have empowered our people to to basically act locally, get involved in local markets again, think about their local customers and to think about profitability.

就我們在北美的瓦楞紙板業務而言，我認為在這裡你才能真正看到業主經營模式的實際應用。我們賦予員工權力，讓他們基本上在本地開展業務，重新參與本地市場，考慮本地客戶，並考慮獲利能力。

And a lot of business was taken on in legacy Westrock under the basis of a combined profitability. That is not the way we think. We think that's the road to prediction that's road to death in our business where you have two sets of capital needs and on profitability. And that's the way that we have, I suppose, continue to survive and Smurfit legacy, Smurfit Kappa is that we treat capital as a very important thing.

很多業務都是在合併獲利的基礎上，由原 Westrock 公司承接的。我們的想法並非如此。我們認為，在我們這個產業，預測之路就是死亡之路，因為你同時面臨兩套資金需求和獲利能力。我想，這就是我們得以繼續生存並傳承 Smurfit Kappa 的方式，那就是我們把資本看作非常重要的東西。

And if you want to make a capital investment, you better be able to justify it. And if you go operations with one profit that masks where you're making the money, then you're not making the right capital decisions. So what we've done is we've spent the first six months of our tenure as a combination, making sure that the P&Ls were done correctly that the balance sheets of each plant, were put into the right order. And then we've told our managers, this is you're now profitable for -- you're now responsible for your profitability. And of course, when you tell them that, and they see customers with negative 30% or 40% margins based upon a fair paper price transfer, they're going to do something about it, and we expect them to do something about it.

如果你想進行資本投資，最好能夠證明其合理性。如果你只專注在一個利潤點，而忽略了真正的獲利來源，那麼你的資本決策就是錯的。因此，我們所做的就是，在我們任期的前六個月裡，我們採取了合併的方式，確保損益表編制正確，並且每個工廠的資產負債表都按正確的順序排列。然後我們告訴經理們，現在你們要對盈利負責——你們現在要對你們的盈利負責。當然，當你告訴他們這一點，並且他們看到客戶基於公平的紙面價格轉移而出現 30% 或 40% 的負利潤時，他們肯定會採取措施，我們也希望他們採取措施。

And if they don't do something about it, they won't be with us, frankly. So the reality is we are actively moving both at a national level and at the local level to make sure that accounts where you've got terrible margins are not run on our expensive valuable beautiful machines in our converting plants. And that's a process that's ongoing. It's one of the reasons why, as I mentioned to an earlier question, lot of business was taken on prior to us coming on board, which was not economic, frankly.

坦白說，如果他們不採取行動，他們就不會和我們在一起。因此，現實情況是，我們正在國家層級和地方層級積極採取行動，確保那些利潤率極低的帳戶不會佔用我們加工廠里昂貴、寶貴、漂亮的機器。這是一個持續進行的過程。正如我在之前回答問題時提到的那樣，這也是為什麼在我們加入之前，很多業務都被承接了，坦白說，這些業務並不經濟。

And we've had to address that, and that's gone away again. And sometimes, we've gone back to the same homes it came from, which is quite kind of interesting. But so that's how we -- please -- pardon me.

我們已經處理過這個問題，但現在這個問題又消失了。有時，我們甚至會回到它原來的家，這還挺有趣的。但事情就是這樣——請原諒我。

No, please go ahead. Sorry.

不，請繼續。對不起。

Sorry, George. So that's how we've moved very quickly from people understanding their profitability to changing a lot of the plants. So we've gone from -- we've cut our loss makers by 50%. And as we continue to address this, and there will be some plans that will make it, but inevitably, I'd say the vast majority will get to profitability in the next couple of years.

對不起，喬治。所以，我們就是這樣迅速地從人們了解他們的獲利能力過渡到改變許多工廠的。所以我們已經——我們已經削減了50%的虧損項目。隨著我們繼續解決這個問題，雖然有些計劃可能會成功，但不可避免地，我認為絕大多數計劃將在未來幾年內實現盈利。

Tony, just a quickie and feel free to punt to February, if you'd like, on Boxboard recognizing it's not the majority of your business, clearly. If there's some rollback in tariffs how might that change your overall view of the attractiveness of SBS has said differently -- has one of the things that's changed in the calculation, your ability to move more SBS being the fact that maybe some of the folding boxboard that was coming to the market has been, I wouldn't say, tariffed out, but certainly has more cost coming into the market? How should we think about that? Thanks, and good luck in the quarter. Thanks for everything.

東尼，就簡單說一句，如果你願意，可以把 Boxboard 的上市計劃推遲到二月份，因為很明顯，它並不是你業務的主要部分。如果關稅下調，這會如何改變您對SBS吸引力的整體看法？有人提出了不同的看法——當您計算SBS銷售時，是否有一個因素發生了變化，那就是一些原本進入市場的折疊紙板可能因為關稅而被排除在外，但肯定增加了市場成本？我們該如何看待這個問題？謝謝，祝你本季一切順利。謝謝你的一切。

Thank you. I don't think tariff really comes into our thinking here. I think, obviously, the price comes into our thinking because the price of SBS has come down a bit. So therefore, it's more competitive as a grade versus other substrates. And obviously, FBB against SBS with the tariff is making it more challenging. But I still think that the FBB is going to be sold in the United States, irrespective because the price -- there's a lot of capacity in FBB specifically in Europe, and they're going to come anyway, I think, to the US with all the added costs that's with it. So I think it's up to us to sell.

謝謝。我認為關稅並不是我們考慮的重點。我認為，很顯然，價格是我們考慮的因素之一，因為SBS的價格已經下降。因此，與其他基材相比，它作為一種等級更具競爭力。顯然，FBB 與 SBS 在資費方面的競爭變得更加激烈。但我仍然認為 FBB 將會在美國銷售，無論如何，因為價格——歐洲的 FBB 產能很大，而且我認為，無論如何，它們都會進入美國市場，儘管隨之而來的是所有額外的成本。所以我覺得賣不賣取決於我們。

I think one of the things that for everyone here to understand that SBS is a myriad of different grades. I mean, you've got cup stock, you've got plate stock, you've got lottery cards, you've got cereal boxes, you've got freezer there like -- there's very, very many different grades of SBS that are sold at different price points that are sold the different quantities to different customers. And so our hope and belief is that we can continue to develop newer grades into SBS that will allow us to earn a material return going forward. And there's no evidence to say that that should be otherwise. We've been getting new customers in lottery cards, for example, which is -- it's only 15,000, 20,000 tons, but every little bit helps, as they say over here. And these are good grades of highly profitable business for us to develop in the years ahead.

我認為，大家需要明白的一點是，SBS 包含無數個不同的等級。我的意思是，有杯子包裝紙，有盤子包裝紙，有彩票包裝紙，有麥片盒包裝紙，還有冷凍櫃包裝紙——SBS 有非常非常多的不同等級，以不同的價格出售，並以不同的數量出售給不同的客戶。因此，我們希望並相信，我們可以繼續開發更多新等級的 SBS，從而在未來獲得實質的回報。沒有任何證據表明情況應該並非如此。例如，我們透過彩券卡獲得了新的客戶，雖然只有 15,000 到 20,000 噸，但正如這裡所說，積少成多。這些都是優質且利潤豐厚的業務，值得我們在未來幾年大力發展。

Thank you, Tony. Thank you, Ken.

謝謝你，托尼。謝謝你，肯。

Charlie Muir-Sands, BNP Paribas Exane.

Charlie Muir-Sands，法國巴黎銀行Exane。

Hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple, please. Firstly, on the revised guidance obviously implies a very wide range of potential outcomes on Q4. Just wondered if you could elaborate on the main outstanding uncertainties for the range?

你好。先生們，下午好。謝謝您回答我的問題。就幾個，謝謝。首先，修訂後的指導意見顯然意味著第四季可能出現非常廣泛的結果。請問您能否詳細說明一下該範圍的主要不確定因素？

And then previously, you've been sort of talking about beyond the operational synergies, the $400 million, you talked about, at least another $400 million of opportunities. I just wondered if you had any kind of updates on that? And then finally, you mentioned that one-off operational issue in Latin America. I just wondered if you could quantify that given it was relevant enough to call out. Thank you.

此前，您一直在談論營運協同效應之外的4億美元，您提到至少還有另外4億美元的機會。我只是想問你有沒有什麼新的進展？最後，您提到了拉丁美洲的那次特殊營運問題。我只是想知道，鑑於這件事的重要性，你是否可以對其進行量化。謝謝。

Hey, Charlie. I'll take those -- so start with the last one. First, it was a kind of a continuous (inaudible) ratio in our in Colombia, it probably cost about $10 million in the quarter, but it's $6 million now. So that's the big effect there. In terms of the guidance range, it really, I think, the more it has in the years gone past. December tends to be the swing factor here in terms of why we've kept a slightly -- and I wouldn't say the range is wider. I think we just moved down the midpoint of it to take account of the downtime piece. But really, it's going to come down to where you see December where we see December.

嘿，查理。我收下那些——那就從最後一個開始吧。首先，在哥倫比亞，這是一種持續的（聽不清楚的）比率，該季度可能花費了大約 1000 萬美元，但現在是 600 萬美元。這就是主要影響所在。就指導範圍而言，我認為，這些年來它確實越來越大了。12 月往往是影響價格走勢的關鍵因素，這也是我們價格略有波動的原因——但我不會說價格波動範圍更廣。我認為我們只是將中間點向下移動了一段距離，以考慮到停機時間的影響。但說到底，最終還是要看你們對十二月的看法和我們對十二月的看法有什麼不同。

And as kind of Tony alluded earlier on, as they're kind of exiting into the quarter, we're not necessarily seeing a much-improved demand backdrop, but equally in our natural sense. We haven't given up hope and a sense of optimism that things don't get better even before the end of the year. So I don't think we can that negative on the outlook. So really, it's around where does December sit in that conversation.

正如托尼之前暗示的那樣，隨著他們進入本季度，我們並沒有看到需求環境有太大改善，但就我們自然的理解而言，情況也是如此。我們並未放棄希望，仍然樂觀地認為，即便在年底之前，情況也會好轉。所以我認為我們不能對前景如此悲觀。所以，關鍵在於十二月在這場討論中處於什麼位置。

In terms of the bit in the middle, I think George actually pointed to part of this answer in his question, which is when you look at the margin performance in North America, given everything that they've been dealing with in terms of where volume is, the incremental downtime, the headwinds, the performance of the margin in North America probably tells you that a chunk of that additional operational commercial improvement is coming through in the numbers already. Where that goes to, that's the kind of how long is the piece of strength to kind of answer because look, it really depends on how many programs we can get at. It sort of goes back to Tony's point earlier on about the owner-operator model and really putting impairment in the hands of every single GM or mill manager to drive their own business for the best returns, their cost takeout, their improving programs, their delivery on CapEx.

至於中間那部分，我認為喬治在他的問題中實際上已經指出了部分答案，那就是，當你觀察北美地區的利潤率表現時，考慮到他們一直在處理的所有問題，例如銷量、停機時間增加、不利因素等等，北美地區的利潤率表現可能表明，一部分額外的運營商業改進已經體現在數據中了。至於這會發展到什麼程度，這就需要回答「力量持續多久」這個問題了，因為你看，這真的取決於我們能參與多少計畫。這有點像東尼之前提到的業主經營模式，真正將減損管理權交給每位總經理或工廠經理，讓他們自己推動業務，以獲得最佳回報、降低成本、改善計畫、實現資本支出目標。

So yes, we're still, I mean, very comfortable, if not more comfortable with the well in excess of where the synergies ended. But I think it's fair to say we are beginning with being able to quantify it exactly. We are beginning to see the benefits of that coming through simply in the margin performance in North America alone and particularly in the corrugated division.

所以，是的，我們仍然非常滿意，甚至比協同效應結束時的成果更滿意。但我認為可以公平地說，我們目前正處於能夠對其進行精確量化的階段。我們已經開始看到這種做法帶來的好處，光是在北美地區的利潤率表現就可見一斑，尤其是在瓦楞紙板部門。

Great. Thank you. And you've obviously given us the 2026 CapEx and elaborated on the rationale for it qualitatively. But just in terms of the returns that you're targeting beyond maintenance or 1 times depreciation, what kind of thresholds are you typically setting for the investments you want to make in the business?

偉大的。謝謝。顯然，您已經提供了 2026 年的資本支出計劃，並從定性角度詳細闡述了其理由。但就您除了維護或 1 倍折舊之外的目標回報而言，您通常會為想要在業務中進行的投資設定什麼樣的門檻？

As a blend, Charlie, look, it won't be any different than we've had before. It sort of goes back to that portfolio approach of trying to drive the incremental return and return on capital forward. So generally, no more than the old system, we would expect that entire portfolio to kind of be in that sort of 20% IRR range, delivering kind of mid-teens, at least in terms of where Rocky sits as a result. That is, of course, dependent on what those projects do, particularly cost take.

查理，你看，作為一種混合酒，它不會和我們以前喝過的有什麼不同。這其實又回到了那種試圖推動增量報酬率和資本報酬率的投資組合方法。因此，總的來說，不會比舊系統更高，我們預計整個投資組合的內部報酬率 (IRR) 將在 20% 左右，至少就 Rocky 目前的狀況而言，收益率會達到十幾個百分點。當然，這取決於這些項目的具體內容，尤其是成本。

You're obviously going to get higher returns from sustainability, energy back-end projects. You might get lower returns in the early years, but history has shown us that as those projects embed and move forward, you have much better returns as they move out. So not pinning it necessary to a target return in individual projects. But as a portfolio, it has to drive forward in terms of where Rocky is because ultimately, that goes back to my comment earlier on, this is about capital in and cash flow out. So not a dissimilar profile to what we would see, you would have seen previously in terms of how we characterize the deployment of capital and allocating capital in a kind of Smurfit context.

很顯然，永續發展和能源後端專案會為你帶來更高的回報。早期收益可能較低，但歷史經驗表明，隨著這些項目逐步落地並向前發展，其回報會越來越好。所以不必將其與單一項目的目標回報掛鉤。但作為一個投資組合，它必須朝著洛基所在的方向發展，因為歸根結底，正如我之前所說，這關乎資本流入和現金流出。因此，這與我們之前看到的，在 Smurfit 的背景下，我們對資本部署和資本配置的描述方式，並沒有太大的不同。

Many thanks.

非常感謝。

Lewis Roxburgh, Goodbody.

路易斯·羅克斯伯格，古德博迪。

Thanks, guys. Just my first question is on cost. You mentioned in the last quarter you expected some relief on OCC pricing. So I just wondered to see if that was playing out as expected and if you're getting any other relief from the other buckets like energy or that might just spill into next year?

謝謝各位。我的第一個問題是關於價格的。您在上個季度提到過，您預計OCC價格會有所下降。所以我想知道這是否按預期進行，以及你是否從其他方面（例如能源）獲得了任何緩解，或者這種情況是否會延續到明年？

And then just in terms of CapEx, I just wondered some more detail how much of that spend might be related to the legacy Westrock assets versus other projects as well and whether this is sort of the new normal or further increases might be needed to tie into those realization synergies. Thanks.

然後，就資本支出而言，我想知道其中有多少支出可能與 Westrock 的遺留資產有關，又有多少支出可能與其他項目有關，以及這是否是新的常態，或者是否需要進一步增加支出才能實現這些協同效應。謝謝。

I'll take the second piece, Lewis, and then I'll let Ken take the first piece. Basically, the CapEx number is slightly skewed towards the legacy Westrock assets because we are a very well-invested base in Europe and Latin America. So what we're doing is we're putting a little bit more capital into some of the box plants to improve the quality and service aspects to improve the corrugators.

路易斯，我來拿第二塊，然後請肯拿第一塊。基本上，資本支出數字略微偏向 Westrock 的傳統資產，因為我們在歐洲和拉丁美洲擁有非常雄厚的投資基礎。所以，我們正在做的就是向一些紙箱廠投入更多資金，以提高瓦楞紙板生產線的品質和服務水準。

So all the things that we have done over the last 10 years in Smurfit Kappa, we're now implementing over the course of years, not just next year but the years going forward. to continue to improve the legacy Westrock business and make it better -- even better than it is. So there's a slight skewing towards legacy Westrock, but not massively material because, as I say, we're in very good shape.

因此，過去十年我們在 Smurfit Kappa 所做的一切，現在都將在未來幾年內逐步實施，不僅是明年，而是未來幾年，以持續改進 Westrock 的傳統業務，使其變得更好——甚至比現在更好。所以，我們稍微偏向Westrock的傳統業務，但這並不算太大的差別，因為正如我所說，我們目前狀況非常好。

In Europe, we invested for growth, and we've got very good assets in our European business. And while there's always growth opportunities like in Spain, like in Eastern Europe and specifically a plant by plant. I think that as a whole, the European business is very well invested. And what we've do over the next three to five years is continue to develop out our Westrock asset base -- legacy Westrock asset base.

在歐洲，我們進行了投資以實現成長，我們在歐洲的業務擁有非常優質的資產。而且，總是會有成長機會，例如在西班牙，在東歐，特別是逐廠發展。我認為總體而言，歐洲企業的投資非常明智。接下來三到五年，我們將繼續發展我們的 Westrock 資產基礎——Westrock 的傳統資產基礎。

Hey, Lewis. I'll just take some of the bigger cost books and just alongside fiber because it's probably useful to kind of run some of that for yourself and your colleagues. In terms of fiber, I think at the half year, we probably said that that was going to be a tailwind of about $100 million. We probably see that in the bet, as you sit here today, somewhere between $130 million, $140 million of a tailwind.

嘿，路易斯。我只會選擇一些成本較高的帳簿，以及光纖相關的帳簿，因為運行一些帳簿對你和你的同事來說可能很有用。就光纖而言，我認為在年中時，我們可能會說這將帶來約 1 億美元的順風。我們或許可以從今天的賭注中看出這一點，大約有 1.3 億美元到 1.4 億美元的順風。

Energy, I think at the half ,or we might have said about $250 million of a headwind probably coming in now, we probably see that about the 180 space. Labor, Similarly, we probably thought about 200, probably down around the kind of 180 space as well now. Downtime is probably going the other way in that in a sense where we would have thought. Downtime was probably going to be 150. It's probably anywhere between 180 and 200 at this space given what we now see for the fourth quarter. So they are really the big cost books in terms of the incremental changes that we would have said Q2 versus where we see the year panning out.

我認為，能源方面，上半年，或者我們之前說過，大約 2.5 億美元的不利因素可能會出現，我們可能會看到大約 180 億美元的空間。勞工方面，我們之前可能考慮過 200 人左右，現在可能也降到了 180 人左右。從某種意義上說，停機時間的發展趨勢可能與我們預想的恰恰相反。停機時間可能達到 150 分鐘。鑑於我們目前對第四季的預期，這個數字可能在 180 到 200 之間。所以，就我們之前所說的第二季增量變化而言，它們確實是成本最高的幾本書，而我們現在看到的是今年的整體發展。

That makes perfect sense. Thanks very much.

這完全說得通。非常感謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Good morning. On the full year EBITDA bridge, maybe Ken just fill in on the pricing side, can you give us an update on where you maybe thought pricing would shake out midyear versus where you are -- where you might end up with the full year guide?

早安.關於全年 EBITDA 過渡期，Ken 或許可以補充一下定價方面的內容，您能否更新一下您之前認為年中定價會如何變化，以及您目前的定價情況——您最終可能會給出的全年指導價是多少？

Yes. I think it's pricing broadly we would start to plug that in there. I think we probably see pricing coming out somewhere between call it 830, 840 versus where it would have been about 900 at the half year. So a small call off probably because of the fourth quarter where demand is going, maybe a little bit of price weakness there, but not materially down versus what we would have thought.

是的。我認為，從整體定價的角度來看，我們應該把這個因素考慮進去。我認為最終定價可能會在 830 到 840 之間，而半年前的價格可能會在 900 左右。所以小幅下調可能是因為第四季的需求走向，價格可能略顯疲軟，但與我們預想的相比，並沒有實質下降。

And would that -- would North America be $700 million or $750 or how is that...

那麼，北美地區的市場規模會是7億美元還是7.5億美元，或者俱體是多少呢？

The region, I will defer. I'll defer that the regions of segmental bridges the guys when they get into the trenches with them later on. I think if that's okay, I just have to.

至於地區問題，我將不予置評。我會推遲討論分段橋樑區域在稍後與他們一起進入戰壕時如何幫助這些人。我想如果可以的話，我就必須這麼做。

Yes, no problem, no problem. And I guess maybe just one follow-up. You mentioned energy projects, and I mean, from other industrial companies and paper companies, we've heard a lot about cost inflation and particularly electricity with demand from AI and data centers. Can you just give us kind of a quick recap of where you are with kind of current energy projects, especially in North America and not to steal any thunder from February, but just how you think about the opportunity in energy at your mills going forward?

是的，沒問題，沒問題。我想或許只需要一個後續問題。您提到了能源項目，我的意思是，從其他工業公司和造紙公司那裡，我們聽到了很多關於成本上漲，特別是人工智慧和資料中心對電力需求的討論。能否簡要回顧一下您目前在能源專案方面的進展情況，尤其是在北美地區？另外，我不想搶二月的風頭，但您如何看待貴公司未來在能源領域的發展機會？

Well, we just approved a large energy project in our Covington mill, which will actually move away from coal to natural gas. And that's going to be -- the IRR on that is depending on where you think the price of the commodity is a minimum of 20% and a maximum of 80% -- sorry, not even the maximum, not the maximum is not capped, but realistically, a 50% return for the mill. So I guess what we will be doing, Anthony, is just taking every energy project as it comes and what kind of return we can get on it. Specifically, the only one that we've approved since we've come in is that one.

我們剛剛批准了科文頓工廠的一個大型能源項目，該項目將逐步淘汰煤炭，轉而使用天然氣。而這將會是——其內部收益率取決於你認為商品價格的最低值是 20%，最高值是 80%——抱歉，甚至不是最高值，最高值沒有上限，但實際上，工廠的回報率是 50%。所以我想我們接下來要做的，安東尼，就是接受每一個能源項目，看看我們能從中獲得什麼樣的回報。具體來說，自從我們接手以來，唯一批准的就是那一個。

We use gas primarily in most of our facilities. We do a little bit of coal where we have to obviously, in other places where we can remove it, we will be. We have a large biomass project in Colombia, which is going to be coming on stream next year biomass boiler, which is a considerable saving for us in energy. So we're -- we continue to look at energy projects. But with regard to how these AI data centers are affecting us, I haven't heard that they're driving any major cost increases for our mill systems where our mill systems are located.

我們的大多數設施主要使用天然氣。在必須開採煤炭的地方，我們會少量開採煤炭；而在我們可以移除煤炭的地方，我們也會移除煤炭。我們在哥倫比亞有一個大型生物質項目，明年將投入使用生物質鍋爐，這將為我們節省大量能源。所以我們會繼續關注能源項目。但就這些人工智慧資料中心對我們造成的影響而言，我還沒有聽說它們導致我們工廠系統所在區域的成本大幅增加。

I think craft systems by their nature, tend to be fairly well served from a power plant, a back-end perspective anyway in that sense. And so not necessarily totally insulated, but generally CO2 positive. But great source of their own energy from a kind of a turbine perspective.

我認為，從本質上講，製程系統往往能得到發電廠的良好服務，至少從後端角度來看是如此。因此，雖然不一定完全隔熱，但總體上是二氧化碳正排放。但從渦輪機的角度來看，它們本身也是巨大的能源來源。

In addition to what Tony said, we have a kind of progressive program. We electrified some borders in Europe over the years. We continue to invest towards the reduction in CO2. I mean, the added benefit from the project Tony talked about herein Covington is it reduces our group CO2 by 1.2%. So very important, if you like, as you look forward to where our customers need to be on scope through emissions and things like that.

除了東尼所說的之外，我們還有一套進步的方案。多年來，我們實現了歐洲部分邊境的電氣化。我們將繼續加大投入，以減少二氧化碳排放。我的意思是，托尼在這裡提到的科文頓項目的額外好處是，它使我們集團的二氧化碳排放量減少了 1.2%。所以，如果你願意的話，這一點非常重要，因為你要展望我們的客戶在排放等方面的需求範圍。

So there's always benefits above and beyond the pure EBITDA benefit we find to manage projects, and it sort of goes back to what we're trying to get to in terms of low-cost producer and where those mill sits, which allows us to kind of be at the forefront of where we do that. So generally, it's always going to be a progression towards either less reliance on some fossils and something else and more sustainable renewable fuels. But the system in and of itself is fairly well set as we start off.

因此，除了純粹的 EBITDA 收益之外，我們在管理專案方面總能獲得其他好處，這在某種程度上也與我們努力實現的低成本生產商的目標以及這些工廠的定位有關，這使我們能夠在這方面處於領先地位。所以總的來說，這始終是一個逐步減少對某些化石燃料和其他燃料的依賴，轉而更多地使用可持續再生燃料的過程。但就係統本身而言，在開始時就已經相當完善了。

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克溫特勞布，海港研究夥伴公司。

Great. Thank you for squeezing me in. A few quick follow-ups. First off, so with other box shipments in North America, do you have a sense as to when you think you might be inflecting more positively versus the industry? How long is the process of sort of the shedding underappreciated business likely going to persist?

偉大的。謝謝你擠出時間幫我。幾個後續問題。首先，對於北美其他地區的箱裝貨物運輸，您是否感覺自己在哪些方面可能比行業整體更具正面影響？這種剝離被低估業務的過程可能會持續多久？

Maybe overappreciated business, we've given them boxes for nothing, Mark. So yes, I would say that I would hope that this from the third quarter on next year, you'll start to see some positive movements. We're still -- we still have some businesses that are very poor piece of business that are under contract that will run out during the first and second quarter of next year. And then obviously, we'll have to go out and replace those or we'll retain them. We'll see how the customer reacts to our discussions with them at that time.

或許我們高估了自己的生意，馬克，我們白白給了他們一些箱子。所以，是的，我希望從明年第三季開始，你們會看到一些積極的進展。我們仍然有一些經營狀況非常糟糕的企業，它們的合約將在明年第一季和第二季到期。很顯然，我們要嘛得把那些東西換掉，要嘛就保留它們。屆時我們將觀察客戶對我們與他們討論內容的反應。

But if I look at the amount of backlog and pipeline that we have for new business, it's collateral in the sense that I feel very comfortable that we're going to start landing a lot of that business. And we already have landed a lot of that business, frankly, but it just takes a little while to qualify and then get into the plant. So when I -- so I would say the third quarter of next year, you'll start to see some inflecting versus this year with better quality business in all of our facilities.

但是，如果我看一下我們目前積壓的新業務訂單和潛在客戶數量，這可以作為保障，因為我很有信心我們會開始拿下很多這類業務。坦白說，我們已經拿下了很多這類訂單，但需要一些時間來獲得資格認證，然後才能進入工廠生產。所以，我估計到明年第三季度，你們會看到與今年相比出現一些轉機，我們所有工廠的業務品質都會有所提升。

And then what's your strategy? What have you been doing vis-a-vis outside sales of container board in North America into either export or domestic channels?

那你的策略是什麼？在北美地區，您針對貨櫃紙板的出口和國內銷售管道做了哪些工作？

Yes. It's -- the export market, as you know, is weak and a lot of the capacity closures that have been announced in the industry have been geared towards the export market, specifically down into the South American market specifically. And so one of the things that I found out is that these people down in these countries have pretty big inventories. And I think we need some time for those inventories to shake out before we see movements in export prices to the positive because the export price is clearly too low for it to be viable for people to survive.

是的。如您所知，出口市場疲軟，業內宣布的許多產能關閉計劃都是為了應對出口市場，特別是南美市場。因此，我發現的一件事是，這些國家的人們擁有相當大的庫存。我認為我們需要一些時間來消化這些庫存，然後才能看到出口價格上漲，因為目前的出口價格顯然太低，不足以讓人們生存下去。

We are selling some into the export market, but clearly, we don't want to sell too much into the export market at that price that's there. But I would say it will be like a eureka moment at some point, things will change and people -- the price will move up very sharply in the export market because it's too low at the moment. But all of the capacity that's come out of the market isn't really affecting it at this time because the stock levels of most customers down there are very, very high.

我們正在向出口市場銷售一些產品，但顯然，我們不想以目前的價格向出口市場銷售太多產品。但我認為，在某個時候，就像靈光乍現的時刻，情況會發生變化，人們——出口市場的價格會大幅上漲，因為目前的價格太低了。但目前市場上釋放的所有產能並沒有真正對其產生影響，因為大多數客戶的庫存水準都非常非常高。

And in the domestic channel, I mean, historically, the legacy Westrock business had sold a fair bit to independents, et cetera. Has that continued? Or has there been some change in that regard?

就國內通路而言，我的意思是，從歷史上看，Westrock 的傳統業務已經向獨立零售商等銷售了相當多的產品。這種情況還在繼續嗎？或這方面有有所變化嗎？

We do have outside customers, and they're important outside customers, and they're generally long-term outside customers, people that we've served for a long period of time, and we continue to do that, and there's been no real change on that as I can see it.

我們確實有外部客戶，而且他們是重要的外部客戶，他們通常是長期外部客戶，我們已經為他們服務了很長時間，我們將繼續這樣做，據我所見，這方面並沒有什麼真正的變化。

Great. And one last quick one, just to squeeze in. So with the SBS from CRB, et cetera, I assume the customers are running that on the same machinery. And so is it pretty easy to switch back and forth between the grades depending on the variables at play?

偉大的。最後再快速補充一個，就當是擠進去吧。所以，對於 CRB 等公司的 SBS 產品，我假設客戶是在相同的機器上運行這些產品。那麼，根據各種變量，在不同等級之間切換是否相當容易？

Yes. I mean, basically, yes. I mean, you might need a technician to run a lower caliper product on the board just to adjust the machine slightly, but there's no real big -- one of the things that we have heard from our customers is that our -- the SBS runs better than the CRB. But I'm sure if you talk to somebody who runs CRB, they're going to say the opposite, but that's what our people tell us from the customer. But I'm sure you can get someone else to say exactly the contrary. But I believe that to be the case because it's a cleaner sheet.

是的。我的意思是，基本上是的。我的意思是，你可能需要技術人員在電路板上運行一個較小的卡鉗產品，以便稍微調整機器，但沒有什麼真正的大問題——我們從客戶那裡聽到的一件事是，我們的——SBS 比 CRB 運行得更好。但我相信，如果你和 CRB 的負責人談談，他們會給出相反的說法，但這是我們的員工從客戶那裡了解到的情況。但我相信你一定能找到其他人說出完全相反的話。但我相信情況確​​實如此，因為它的床單更乾淨。

Much appreciated. Good luck in 4Q.

非常感謝。祝您第四季一切順利。

Thank you. I will now hand the conference back to Tony for closing comments.

謝謝。現在我將把會議交還給托尼，請他作總結發言。

Thank you very much, operator. I want to thank you all for joining us today. We remain very excited about the future of the Smurfit Westrock business. We're enthused about a lot of the changes that are happening, that have happened and that are already happening. And we look forward to the future with great enthusiasm. So thank you all for joining us, and I look forward to seeing many of you in the months ahead. Thank you all.

非常感謝，接線生。感謝各位今天蒞臨現場。我們對 Smurfit Westrock 的未來仍然充滿信心。我們對正在發生、已經發生和即將發生的許多變化感到興奮。我們滿懷熱情地展望未來。感謝各位的參與，期待在接下來的幾個月與大家再次相聚。謝謝大家。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。發言人請稍候。