Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Smurfit Westrock 2025 Q2 results webcast and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Smurfit Westrock 2025 年第二季業績網路廣播與電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Ciaran Potts, Smurfit Westrock Group VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給 Smurfit Westrock Group 投資者關係副總裁 Ciaran Potts。請繼續。

Thank you, Heidi. As a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and presentation and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，海蒂。提醒一下，今天的收益報告和演示中的陳述以及管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於收益報告和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中確定的因素。該公司不承擔修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and in the appendix to the presentation, which are available at investors.merfitwesttock.com. Before handing over to Tony, I would ask you to limit your questions to two. And should you require any clarifications on what we are disclosing today.

今天的言論也涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。今天的收益報告和簡報附錄中包含了與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳表，可在 investors.merfitwesttock.com 取得。在交給 Tony 之前，我希望您只問兩個問題。如果您需要對我們今天披露的內容進行任何澄清。

Frank and I will make ourselves available after our call. I'll now hand you over to Tony Smurfit, CEO of Smurfit Westrock.

通話結束後，弗蘭克和我會及時回覆。現在我將您交給 Smurfit Westrock 執行長 Tony Smurfit。

Thank you, Ciaran, and good morning, everybody. I'm joined today by Ken Bowles, our Group Executive Vice President and CFO. I am delighted to report a strong second quarter performance as we continue to deliver fully in line with our stated guidance. Ken will take you through our financial performance in greater detail.

謝謝你，Ciaran，大家早安。今天與我一同出席的還有我們的集團執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Bowles。我很高興地報告第二季業績強勁，我們繼續完全按照既定的指導方針行事。Ken 將向您更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

In terms of headline numbers, we are delivering adjusted EBITDA of $1.213 million, and a good adjusted EBITDA margin performance of 15.3%. Turning to our regions. We have delivered an initial yet significant improvement within our North American business, reflecting a much sharper operational and commercial focus together with identified synergy benefits. We're only getting started here and with significant scope for continued delivery. Our European business continues to perform in a challenging market.

從整體數字來看，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 121.3 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率表現良好，達到 15.3%。轉向我們的地區。我們在北美業務方面取得了初步但顯著的進步，反映出更清晰的營運和商業重點以及已確定的協同效益。我們才剛起步，還有很大的持續交付空間。我們的歐洲業務在充滿挑戰的市場中繼續表現出色。

However, we are comfortable that we are close to a low. Our Latin American operations delivered an outstanding margin performance in a region which continues to present opportunities for growth. We see opportunity across each region, whether it's in terms of operating efficiency, a sharper commercial focus are capitalizing on growth areas. We continue to optimize our system, which we expect to drive improved margin performance for Smurfit Westrock with our recently announced restructuring.

然而，我們很高興看到我們已經接近低點。我們的拉丁美洲業務在該地區取得了出色的利潤表現，並繼續提供成長機會。我們在每個地區都看到了機遇，無論是在營運效率方面，還是在更清晰的商業焦點方面，都在利用成長領域。我們將繼續優化我們的系統，並希望透過我們最近宣布的重組來提高 Smurfit Westrock 的利潤率。

Finally, and of note within the quarter, Fitch upgraded our long-term debt to BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting their confidence in the quality of our business and our longer-term prospects. As it is now one year from the conclusion of the combination between Smurfit Kappa Group and Westrock, I want to take a step back to look forward. Let me outline our key achievements and what we have found within that time frame.

最後，值得注意的是，本季度，惠譽將我們的長期債務評級上調至 BBB+，展望穩定，這反映了他們對我們的業務品質和長期前景的信心。現在距離 Smurfit Kappa 集團和 Westrock 合併已經過去一年了，我想回顧一下過去，並展望未來。讓我概述一下我們的主要成就以及我們在這段時間內所發現的東西。

First, we have very successfully and seamlessly integrated two major businesses, combining the best elements of each organization with a strong performance-led culture. Secondly, we have identified and are delivering on at least $400 million of synergies. And as we said before, we see a much greater opportunity to deliver at least equivalent value through a much sharper commercial and operating focus. For growth and increased operating efficiency, we continue to invest in a disciplined way across our regions. We are continuing and will continue to optimize our system through the elimination of nonstrategic or inefficient assets.

首先，我們非常成功且無縫地整合了兩大業務，將每個組織的最佳元素與強大的績效主導文化結合。其次，我們已經確定並正在實現至少 4 億美元的協同效應。正如我們之前所說，我們看到了更大的機會，可以透過更清晰的商業和營運重點來實現至少同等的價值。為了實現成長並提高營運效率，我們將繼續在各個地區進行有紀律的投資。我們正在並將繼續透過消除非策略性或低效資產來優化我們的系統。

As you know, we recently announced the permanent closure of 600,000 tons of capacity. The steps we are taking and continue to take are delivering immeasurable improvement to the business performance within a relatively short time frame. We have built strong foundations with a generally well-invested asset base excellent market positions and above all the excellence of our people.

如大家所知，我們最近宣布永久關閉60萬噸的產能。我們正在採取和繼續採取的措施正在相對較短的時間內為業務績效帶來不可估量的改善。我們已建立起堅實的基礎，擁有整體投資良好的資產基礎、卓越的市場地位，最重要的是擁有優秀的員工。

You have often heard us talking about our distinct operating model that has driven our outperformance. Fundamentally, it revolves around people and the culture which exists now within the new Smurfit Westrock. Culture and values are fundamental to us, and we demand the highest ethical standards. First, we devolved profit responsibility down to the individual businesses, ensuring that each manager runs their business as a fully accountable owner with responsibility for all aspects of their business with an emphasis on customer service and profitability.

您經常聽到我們談論推動我們取得優異業績的獨特營運模式。從根本上來說，它圍繞著新 Smurfit Westrock 中的人和文化。文化和價值觀對我們來說至關重要，我們要求最高的道德標準。首先，我們將利潤責任下放給各個企業，確保每個經理都以完全負責的所有者身份來經營自己的企業，對企業的各個方面負責，並強調客戶服務和盈利能力。

In order for our managers to be successful, there are a number of prerequisites such as having a complete focus on their people within their organizations, safety at work and a relentless focus on delivering value, innovation and quality for our customers. In order to do that, we in corporate effectively give those managers the tools to do the job, ensuring clear strategic direction and support. Naturally, we tightly and centrally control capital and ensure structures are simplified, and there is an unrelenting focus on cost takeout while at the same time eliminating unnecessary structures.

為了使我們的管理人員取得成功，需要滿足許多先決條件，例如全心全意關注組織內的員工、工作安全以及堅持不懈地致力於為客戶提供價值、創新和品質。為了做到這一點，我們在公司有效地為這些經理提供完成工作的工具，確保明確的策略方向和支援。當然，我們嚴格集中控制資本並確保簡化結構，並且堅持不懈地專注於成本削減，同時消除不必要的結構。

Our identified synergy program is delivering at or better than planned. Importantly, though, we see very significant margin enhancement opportunities through our methodology and way of working. We've already seen the benefit. And to demonstrate this point, we've already cut our loss-making and corrugated in by approximately 40% in our US operations.

我們確定的協同計劃正在達到或超過計劃的效果。但重要的是，透過我們的方法和工作方式，我們看到了非常顯著的利潤提升機會。我們已經看到了好處。為了證明這一點，我們已經將美國業務的虧損和利潤減少了約 40%。

We've always strongly believe that, as a general principle, our assets must be world class. Within our business, in our previous incarnation of Smurfit Kappa, we continued over two strategic plan periods to develop world-class systems, world-class assets and businesses which have a long investable future. In the new Smurfit Westrock, as always, we will be doing the same in a disciplined and measured way. We have started that journey now in the new Smurfit Westrock with $1 billion already invested in our system, roughly equally split between paper and converting assets. We have also initiated what we call our quick win programs with an amount of almost $200 million already committed for the next 18 months to rapidly take out costs with the minimum returns exceeding 20% plus.

我們始終堅信，作為一項一般原則，我們的資產必須是世界一流的。在我們的業務中，在我們之前的 Smurfit Kappa 版本中，我們持續了兩個戰略計劃期，以開發世界一流的系統、世界一流的資產和具有長期可投資未來的業務。在新的 Smurfit Westrock，我們將一如既往地以紀律嚴明、有分寸的方式做同樣的事情。我們現在已經啟動了在新 Smurfit Westrock 的這段旅程，並已在系統中投資了 10 億美元，其中紙質資產和轉換資產的投入大致相等。我們還啟動了所謂的“速贏計劃”，已承諾在未來 18 個月內投入近 2 億美元，以迅速收回成本，最低迴報率超過 20% 以上。

Frankly speaking, we've been doing this for decades and seeing the opportunity in the new Smurfit Westrock is truly exciting. But of course, equipment without people is useless because anybody can buy new equipment. And if you don't have the people with superior knowledge in their marketplace, then you will just be another average company. In the first six months, we have demonstrated with some 39 unique awards given to us that Smurfit Westrock has some of the most powerful, innovative tools and applications that will bring our customers' packaging to another level and help them win in their own marketplaces. With over 2,000 designers worldwide, we are in the early innings of bringing all that knowledge together for the benefit of our customers, so they can reduce their own costs and drive increased revenue, giving them unique designs at the same time sharing value.

坦白說，我們已經這樣做了幾十年，看到新 Smurfit Westrock 帶來的機會確實令人興奮。但當然，沒有人的設備是無用的，因為任何人都可以購買新設備。如果你沒有擁有豐富市場知識的人才，那麼你就只是一家普通的公司。在前六個月中，我們獲得了約 39 個獨特獎項，證明 Smurfit Westrock 擁有一些最強大、最具創新性的工具和應用程序，這些工具和應用程式將使我們客戶的包裝更上一層樓，並幫助他們在自己的市場中獲勝。我們在全球擁有超過 2,000 名設計師，我們正處於將所有知識整合在一起以造福客戶的初期階段，這樣他們就可以降低自身成本並增加收入，同時為他們提供獨特的設計並分享價值。

The sustainability journey, which a large portion of our customer base is committed to is another area of expertise. We are becoming the innovative and sustainable packaging partner of choice for our customers which has continually demonstrated day in and day out across our regions.

我們的客戶很大一部分都致力於永續發展之旅，這是我們的另一個專業領域。我們正在成為客戶首選的創新和永續包裝合作夥伴，這一點已在我們各個地區日復一日地得到持續證明。

And with that, I'll hand you over to Ken, who will take you through our financials.

說完這些，我將把你們交給肯，他將向你們介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Tony. Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. And as always, thank you for taking the time to join us. As you can see here on slide 9, the business delivered another strong performance in the second quarter, with net sales of over $7.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin had a guidance at $1.213 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin for the group of over 15% and a strong adjusted free cash flow of $387 million. This is a marked improvement compared to the combined performance of the business for the same period last year, showing mid-single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and a further improvement in the group margin.

謝謝你，托尼。大家早安，下午好。一如既往，感謝您抽出時間加入我們。正如您在幻燈片 9 上看到的，該業務在第二季度再次表現強勁，淨銷售額超過 79 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預期為 12.13 億美元，集團調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率超過 15%，調整後的自由現金流強勁，為 3.87 億美元。與去年同期的綜合業績相比，這是一個顯著的改善，調整後的 EBITDA 實現了中等個位數成長，集團利潤率進一步提高。

The performance reflects strength and resilience provided by our diversified geographic footprint and product portfolio, particularly in the challenging macroeconomic environment and the commitment and dedication of our people to delivering for our customers. The ongoing improvement is also a clear reflection of our plan to embed our unique performance at culture right across the Smurfit Westrock organization. A culture that empowers mail and converting at managers, places the customer at the center of decision-making, underpinned by a relentless focus on cost and operating excellence.

這項業績體現了我們多元化的地理覆蓋和產品組合所提供的實力和韌性，特別是在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中，以及我們員工為客戶提供服務的承諾和奉獻精神。持續的改進也清楚地反映了我們計劃將我們獨特的文化表現融入整個 Smurfit Westrock 組織的計劃。這種文化賦予管理人員郵件和轉換權力，將客戶置於決策的中心，並以不斷關注成本和卓越營運為基礎。

Turning now to the reported performance of our three segments and starting with North America, where our operations delivered net sales of $4.8 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $752 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.8%, an excellent outcome. Compared to the combined results in the second quarter of last year, we saw a significant margin improvement predominantly due to higher selling prices, early evidence of the operating model in action and the benefits of our synergy program alongside some input cost release from recovered fiber, which more than offset lower volumes and cost headwinds on energy, labor and higher mill downtime.

現在來看看我們三個部門的報告業績，首先是北美，我們的業務實現了 48 億美元的淨銷售額，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.52 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.8%，這是一個非常出色的成績。與去年第二季的綜合業績相比，我們的利潤率顯著提高，這主要歸功於更高的銷售價格、營運模式的早期實施證據、協同效應計劃帶來的好處以及回收纖維釋放的一些投入成本，這些都足以抵消產量下降以及能源、勞動力和工廠停工時間增加帶來的成本阻力。

Corrugated box pricing was higher compared to the prior year, while box volumes were down 4.5% on a same-day basis, an outcome very much in line with our ongoing value over volume strategy. Third-party paper sales were 2% lower, while consumer packaging shipments, again, on a same-day basis were down 2.7%, with volumes in Mexico being lower than in our US business. One year on from the combination, we are particularly pleased with the performance of our North American team with much of the heavy lifting now complete in terms of establishing our performance at culture based on empowerment and plant level responsibility.

瓦楞紙箱價格較上年同期有所上漲，而同日紙箱銷量卻下降了 4.5%，這一結果與我們持續推行的價值高於銷售策略非常一致。第三方紙張銷售額下降了 2%，而同日消費包裝出貨量也下降了 2.7%，其中墨西哥的出貨量低於美國業務。合併一年後，我們對北美團隊的表現感到特別滿意，在建立基於授權和工廠級責任的文化表現方面，大部分繁重的工作已經完成。

Looking now at our EMEA and APAC segment, where we delivered net sales of $2.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $372 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.4%. Despite a more challenging market backdrop in the region, our operations remained resilient with combined adjusted EBITDA modestly below the prior year. This performance reflects the scale of our local teams in managing a highly volatile cost environment and underscores the effectiveness of our operating model, which continues to deliver the most innovative and sustainable packaging solutions and industry-leading returns.

現在來看看我們的 EMEA 和 APAC 部門，我們的淨銷售額為 28 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.72 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.4%。儘管該地區的市場環境更具挑戰性，但我們的業務仍然保持彈性，合併調整後的 EBITDA 略低於去年。這項業績反映了我們當地團隊在管理高度波動的成本環境中的規模，並強調了我們營運模式的有效性，該模式繼續提供最具創新性和可持續性的包裝解決方案和領先業界的回報。

Higher corrugated box prices year-on-year were more than offset by headwinds on energy recovered fiber and labor, while corrugated box volumes remained flat on a same-day basis.

瓦楞紙箱價格較去年同期上漲，但被能源回收纖維和勞動力方面的不利因素所抵消，而瓦楞紙箱銷售當天保持穩定。

To consolidate our leadership position in the region, we have made significant investments in new converting machines, upgrades to corrugators and significant investments in our bag and box business, resulting in a business that is primed to take advantage of the return of an improved demand environment.

為了鞏固我們在該地區的領導地位，我們對新的加工機器、瓦楞機的升級以及我們的袋子和盒子業務進行了大量投資，從而使我們的業務能夠充分利用改善的需求環境。

LatAm segment again remained very strong in the quarter with net sales of $0.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $123 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 23%. Corrugated box volumes were down 1.9% on a same-day basis, with the demand picture in Argentina showing nascent yet marked improvement and strong demand growth in Colombia and Chile, all while our value-over-volume strategy continues to play out in Brazil as we continue to phase out unprofitable legacy contracts. The region successfully implemented pricing initiatives that almost entirely offset a negative currency translation impact and lower box volumes to deliver this strong result. We believe that Latin America continues to be a region of high-growth retention for Smurfit Westrock and one where we are well positioned to drive long-term success.

拉丁美洲地區在本季再次保持強勁，淨銷售額為 5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.23 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 23%。瓦楞紙箱銷量當日下降 1.9%，阿根廷的需求形勢顯示出初步但明顯的改善，哥倫比亞和智利的需求增長強勁，同時，隨著我們繼續逐步淘汰無利可圖的遺留合同，我們的價值重於銷量的戰略繼續在巴西發揮作用。該地區成功實施了定價舉措，幾乎完全抵消了貨幣換算的負面影響和箱量下降，從而取得了這一強勁的業績。我們相信，拉丁美洲將繼續成為 Smurfit Westrock 的高成長保留地區，也是我們有能力推動長期成功的地區。

And just a reminder of our proven capital allocation framework, a framework that is flexible and returns focused at its core. In Smurfit Westrock, we see internally allocated capital backed by a management team with deep industry experience as key to the future success of the business. After conducting the near-term assessment of the capital leases business, our CapEx range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion for the year includes high-return quick win projects already underway, while we continue to build out broader strategic plans for the business.

這只是提醒一下我們經過驗證的資本配置框架，該框架靈活且以回報為核心。在 Smurfit Westrock，我們認為由擁有深厚產業經驗的管理團隊所支持的內部分配資本是企業未來成功的關鍵。在對資本租賃業務進行近期評估後，我們今年的資本支出範圍為 22 億美元至 24 億美元，其中包括已在進行的高回報快速取勝項目，同時我們將繼續為該業務制定更廣泛的戰略計劃。

The dividend is also a cornerstone of the framework, delivering on our expectation of paying a dividend stream in line with legacy SKG's progressive policy, subject to the necessary board approvals and demonstrates our confidence in the cash-generatibility of the business. You will note that today, we have declared a quarterly dividend of $0.4308 per share.

股息也是該框架的基石，它符合我們按照傳統 SKG 的漸進政策支付股息的預期，但須獲得必要的董事會批准，並表明我們對業務現金產生能力的信心。您會注意到，今天我們宣布每股 0.4308 美元的季度股息。

The balance sheet at Smurfit Westrock has significant strength and flexibility. We are committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating, and I am particularly pleased with the upgrade to our long-term issue rating from Fitch earlier this month to BBB+ with stable outlook. Given the scale of our operations and indeed our ability to generate significant free cash flow, we are targeting a long-term leverage ratio of below 2 times through the cycle.

Smurfit Westrock 的資產負債表具有顯著的實力和靈活性。我們致力於維持強勁的投資級信用評級，我特別高興的是，惠譽本月初將我們的長期發行評級上調至BBB+，展望穩定。鑑於我們的營運規模以及我們產生大量自由現金流的能力，我們的目標是在整個週期內將長期槓桿率保持在 2 倍以下。

We will also maintain a disciplined approach to M&A, benchmarking any growth opportunities in this area against all other capital allocation alternatives. And the inclusion of other shareholder returns reflect our strong confidence in the future prospects of the business and signals our commitment to continue exploring avenues to create and deliver value for our shareholders and benchmark those opportunities against available options.

我們也將保持嚴謹的併購方式，將該領域的任何成長機會與所有其他資本配置方案進行比較。其他股東回報的納入反映了我們對業務未來前景的強烈信心，並表明我們致力於繼續探索為股東創造和提供價值的途徑，並將這些機會與可用選項進行對比。

Ultimately, this framework is all about creating long-term value for all shareholders.

最終，這個框架是為了為所有股東創造長期價值。

Turning now to slide 12, and I'm pleased to confirm that our synergy program is delivering as planned. We are on track to deliver $400 million of full-year full run rate synergies exiting 2025. And moreover, we have identified a minimum $400 million of additional opportunities following from a sharper operating and commercial focus. The drivers of that medium-term target involve our long-standing value-over-volume philosophy, the consolidation of production and more efficient machines, the ongoing benefits of our decentralized operating model and through the rollout of our unique innovation offering. Furthermore, as we noted in the release, we expect to deliver third quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance remains between $5 billion and $5.2 billion.

現在翻到第 12 張投影片，我很高興地確認我們的協同計畫正在按計畫進行。我們預計在 2025 年底實現 4 億美元的全年全運行率綜效。此外，透過更清晰的營運和商業重點，我們還發現了至少 4 億美元的額外機會。這個中期目標的驅動因素包括我們長期以來的價值高於數量的理念、生產的整合和更有效率的機器、我們分散營運模式的持續效益以及透過推出我們獨特的創新產品。此外，正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們預計第三季調整後的 EBITDA 約為 13 億美元，全年調整後的 EBITDA 預期仍保持在 50 億美元至 52 億美元之間。

And with that, I'll pass it back to Tony for some concluding remarks.

最後，我將把發言交還給托尼，請他做最後總結。

Thank you, Ken. Well, as I said at the outset, we are happy that we've come a long way in a short space of time, but clearly, there is much to play for. Our North American business has seen significant improvements in its first year of the combination. Our European business continues to be resilient with a decent margin performance despite a challenging environment. As the region recovers, we will be a major beneficiary.

謝謝你，肯。嗯，正如我在一開始所說的，我們很高興在短時間內取得了長足的進步，但顯然，我們還有很多事情要做。我們的北美業務在合併的第一年就取得了顯著的改善。儘管面臨嚴峻挑戰，我們的歐洲業務依然保持韌性，利潤率表現良好。隨著該地區的復甦，我們將成為主要的受益者。

Our Latin American business continues to be an area of significant opportunity where we see significant growth in many of the countries in which we operate. Smurfit Westrock is about building on the strong foundation we have laid to be the go-to innovative and sustainable packaging partner of choice for our customers with an emphasis on value, quality and service. Smurfit Westrock, which operates in 40 countries is truly at the beginning of this journey. We believe that we have the best people in the business.

我們的拉丁美洲業務仍然是一個充滿重大機會的領域，我們在開展業務的許多國家都看到了顯著的成長。Smurfit Westrock 致力於在我們已經奠定的堅實基礎上，成為客戶首選的創新和永續包裝合作夥伴，專注於價值、品質和服務。業務遍及 40 個國家的 Smurfit Westrock 才剛開始這趟旅程。我們相信我們擁有業內最優秀的人才。

We believe we have the best knowledge in our business, and we have strong market positions in practically all countries in which we operate. All senior management in the company are fully aligned with shareholders with a proven track record of delivery.

我們相信，我們擁有業內最豐富的知識，並且在我們開展業務的幾乎所有國家都擁有強大的市場地位。公司所有高階主管都與股東保持一致，並擁有良好的業績記錄。

As we have set out in this morning's release, our confidence and conviction on our performance and prospects in part reflects the measurable progress that we've already done within this very short time frame.

正如我們在今天早上的新聞稿中所述，我們對我們的業績和前景的信心和信念在一定程度上反映了我們在這個非常短的時間內已經取得的可衡量的進展。

I thank you for your attention. And now I will hand it back to our operator for some questions and answers.

感謝您的關注。現在我將把它交還給我們的操作員進行一些問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Mark, we can't hear you -- mike, sorry, we can't hear you. here.

馬克，我們聽不到你的聲音──麥克，對不起，我們聽不到你的聲音。

Can you hear me now? Sorry about that.

現在你能聽到我說話嗎？很抱歉。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. Apologies -- congrats on all the progress. First question I had was, Tony, you mentioned you cut the loss making, I believe, I heard you say in North America corrugated by 40%. And what metric or metrics are you referring to exactly? Just can you provide some more details around that?

好的。抱歉——祝賀所有進展。我的第一個問題是，東尼，你提到你減少了虧損，我相信，我聽到你說北美瓦楞紙業務的虧損減少了 40%。您具體指的是什麼指標？您能否提供更多有關該問題的詳細資訊？

Yeah, sure, Mike. Basically, when we came in, we obviously put the profitability back to plant level. And we could see that a lot of plants and actually, the numbers are pretty well the same. About 40% of our plants have moved into profit being in loss and about 40% improvement in the overall number. So we've basically gone through every account very systematically, and there have been some accounts that have been heavily on the water, and we have part of the reason for our volume performance is that we have lost some business that was very uneconomic for us to run.

是的，當然，麥克。基本上，當我們加入時，我們顯然將盈利能力重新放回工廠層級。我們可以看到很多植物，實際上，它們的數量幾乎相同。我們約有40%的工廠由虧損轉為獲利，整體改善率約40%。因此，我們基本上對每個帳戶都進行了非常系統化的檢查，發現有些帳戶的虧損非常嚴重，而我們的交易量表現不佳的部分原因是我們失去了一些對我們來說非常不經濟的業務。

And so that's been a systematic process. I mean we can't get out of all contracts that we're in that are not necessarily good ones. And so we're going through that process continually in the company.

這是一個系統的過程。我的意思是，我們無法擺脫所有不一定是好的合約。因此我們在公司內部不斷經歷這個過程。

And so the good news is that when you open up valuable machine space, and you gave a sales team the chance to go and fill that valuable machine space, if you're losing a lot of money on an account, just getting breakeven accounts business is not so hard, so you improve your business substantially. It does take a little bit of a lag period. So if you lose let's say, a machine of a customer, it will probably take you six months to refill that machine with better customers. So that's why you get the sort of lag period of getting your volume back. But overall, just by the actions that we've taken of removing poor volume and replacing some of that already, we're seeing the benefits, and we'll continue to see the benefits.

因此，好消息是，當您開放寶貴的機器空間，並讓銷售團隊有機會去填補寶貴的機器空間時，如果您在某個帳戶上損失了很多錢，那麼獲得收支平衡的帳戶業務並不難，因此您可以大幅改善您的業務。它確實需要一點滯後時間。因此，如果您失去一位客戶的機器，那麼您可能需要六個月的時間才能為該機器重新註入更好的客戶。這就是為什麼你會經歷一段時間的延遲才能恢復音量。但總體而言，透過我們採取的行動，消除不良交易量並替換其中的一些交易量，我們已經看到了好處，我們將繼續看到好處。

There will be some factories, Mike, that will be unfavorable for different reasons, but the vast majority of them are savable and will improve continually. And I would say to you that all that we've said about operational improvement is really continuing to do what normal corrugated factories do, which is sell at a reasonable rate of return, giving value and service and quality to the customer and ensuring that the plant is able to continue to pull the paper through the system rather than push the paper through the system. And that's what's happened and it is happening.

麥克，有些工廠會因為各種原因而陷入困境，但絕大多數工廠都是可以挽救的，並且會不斷改善。我想告訴你們，我們所說的有關營運改進的一切實際上就是繼續做普通瓦楞紙廠所做的事情，即以合理的回報率銷售，為客戶提供價值、服務和質量，並確保工廠能夠繼續將紙張拉過系統，而不是將紙張推過系統。這就是已經發生和正在發生的事。

Got it. I appreciate the color there, Tony. And then just one quick follow-up. How much of the business in North America remains in a loss position? And then quickly just on Europe, you mentioned you feel you're close to a low in Europe.

知道了。我很欣賞那裡的色彩，東尼。然後只需快速跟進一次。北美有多少業務仍處於虧損狀態？然後快速談談歐洲，您提到您感覺歐洲已接近低谷。

But that said, it looks like pricing continues to weaken, which could potentially threaten to the back half of this year into '26. So I would love to get your sense as to why you feel you're close to a low right now in Europe as well.

但話雖如此，價格似乎繼續走弱，這可能會對今年下半年至26年造成威脅。所以我很想知道您為什麼覺得歐洲現在也接近低谷。

Okay. Well, we still have a number of facilities in loss-making. There'll be going back to the first question. We still have a lot still to do. There are, as I said, there are companies that where we have contracts that we have to continue to honor with our customers that are significantly underwater that as those contracts come up, we will either get the prices up or we will lose the business and replace it with better business.

好的。嗯，我們仍然有許多設施處於虧損狀態。我們再回到第一個問題。我們還有很多事情要做。正如我所說，有些公司與客戶簽訂了合同，我們必須繼續履行這些合同，但這些合同的負債率卻很高，隨著這些合同的到期，我們要么提高價格，要么失去這些業務，用更好的業務來代替。

So we have still, as I say, about 60% of the loss makers corrugated loss makers to move into profit. So that's a big opportunity and and chance for us.

因此，正如我所說，我們仍然有大約 60% 的瓦楞紙虧損企業轉為獲利。所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

I don't say all of them will get there, but I would say that at least for another 40% will get there over the coming year or so. So and the ones that have come from loss-making to marginal profitability, we should start to see them improve as well. And then hopefully, we'll see our decent plans continue to improve over time as well. So without being too optimistic, I see a lot of opportunity in in our corrugated space to improve our business.

我並不是說所有人都會實現這一目標，但我想說至少還有 40% 的人會在未來一年左右實現這一目標。因此，對於那些已經從虧損轉為獲利的企業，我們也應該開始看到它們的改善。然後我們希望看到我們的計劃隨著時間的推移而不斷改進。因此，儘管不太樂觀，但我認為瓦楞紙領域仍有許多機會可以改善我們的業務。

With regard to Europe, I think there was an announcement today, Mike, about a paper mill closing down. What we're seeing in Europe is that at the current levels, if you're a third or fourth player paper mill in Europe, and you have no integration, you are in not in good shape right now. And that's you saw the one closure today. That's just an indication of how difficult it is for independent paper makers right now in Europe with the current level of pricing. And so I think that our business model has proven out.

關於歐洲，麥克，我認為今天有一個關於一家造紙廠關閉的公告。我們在歐洲看到的是，在目前的水平下，如果你是歐洲第三或第四大造紙廠，而你沒有整合，那麼你現在的狀況就不太好。這就是今天你看到的那個關閉。這只是說明，在目前定價水準下，歐洲獨立造紙商的處境有多麼困難。所以我認為我們的商業模式已經被證明是有效的。

We've got very good assets, which we've invested in over the years. We've got very good integration, which we continue to invest in. And we will in fact, our pricing should move up in corrugated in the second half or slightly move ahead. as we integrate, as we push forward our contracts that will come up for renewed during the second half of the year.

我們擁有非常好的資產，這些資產是我們多年來一直在投資的。我們已經實現了非常好的整合，並且我們將繼續對此進行投資。事實上，隨著我們整合，隨著我們推進將在下半年續約的合同，我們的瓦楞紙定價將在下半年上漲或略有上漲。

So I think at the current level of paper, it's not sustainable for the vast majority of players and that's why you're seeing some closure, and I suspect you're going to see some more.

因此我認為，就目前的紙面水平而言，這對於絕大多數玩家來說是不可持續的，這就是為什麼你會看到一些關閉，而且我懷疑你還會看到更多。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That's great, thanks, Mike.

太好了，謝謝，麥克。

Lewis Roxburgh, Goodbody.

路易斯‧羅克斯堡，《Goodbody》。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. The first is just on tariffs and consumer confidence. So I guess Q2 would have captured some of that initial tariff impact. And obviously, the delivery was encouraging in that context. But as we move into Q3 with a little bit more visibility, uncertainty in policy? Are you seeing any signs of improvement in consumer confidence or demand across your key markets?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題只是關於關稅和消費者信心。因此我猜第二季將會受到部分初始關稅的影響。顯然，在這種背景下，交付成果是令人鼓舞的。但隨著我們進入第三季度，政策的透明度有所提高，但不確定性如何？您是否看到主要市場的消費者信心或需求改善的跡象？

And the second question is just, I guess, a follow-up on European capacity rationalization. I know you mentioned weakness in nonintegrated players. You've already announced some closures in Germany, but just given the scale of the US reduction and the fact that sort of European market stands relatively oversupplied, do you think there's scope for further capacity closures on your side?

我想，第二個問題只是關於歐洲產能合理化的後續問題。我知道您提到了非綜合球員的弱點。你們已經宣布關閉德國的一些產能，但考慮到美國減產的規模以及歐洲市場相對供應過剩的現實，你們認為你們還有進一步關閉產能的空間嗎？

Yeah. I mean we continue to look at, Lewis, our portfolio, and so at this moment, we closed the mill last year in Europe and France. We don't, in the short term, because all of our mills continue to be profitable because they're integrated. And so we're in reasonably good shape. And as I say, we're mainly first and second tier mills in our system because we've been investing in them for the last decade.

是的。我的意思是，路易斯，我們繼續關注我們的投資組合，所以目前，我們去年關閉了歐洲和法國的工廠。短期內我們不會這樣做，因為我們所有的工廠都是一體化的，因此能夠繼續獲利。所以我們的狀況相當不錯。正如我所說，我們的系統中主要是一級和二級工廠，因為過去十年我們一直在投資它們。

If you remember, if you go back a long time, we used to have 23 mills doing 3 million tons. Now we have about 15 mills doing 5 million tons. So our footprint has become ever more efficient over the last 15 years or so. So we're ourselves in good shape because we have people to sell to, which is ourselves, and that's the integrated model that we continue to talk about. So do I suspect there are many, many mills that are in desperate trouble right now, and that was indicated by just 1 closure today.

如果你還記得的話，如果你回顧很久以前，我們曾經有 23 家工廠，年產量為 300 萬噸。現在我們有大約 15 家工廠，年產量為 500 萬噸。因此，在過去 15 年左右的時間裡，我們的足跡變得越來越有效率。因此，我們的狀況很好，因為我們有目標客戶，也就是我們自己，這就是我們一直在談論的綜合模式。因此，我懷疑現在有很多工廠都陷入了極度困境，今天僅有一家工廠關閉就表明了這一點。

And I suspect that as we go forward into the third and fourth quarter, if things persist, that those will continue to happen.

我懷疑，隨著我們進入第三季度和第四季度，如果情況持續下去，這些情況將會繼續發生。

The first part of your question, Ken, do you want to take the tariff?

肯，你問題的第一部分，你想承擔關稅嗎？

And just to clarify, Lewis, that the closures we announced in Germany last quarter were, not paper mills. So generally, that we were consolidating that volume across the existing footprint in Germany. So the volume remains just over a lower fixed cost overhead was better for the system, so natural benefit.

劉易斯，需要澄清的是，我們上個季度在德國宣布關閉的工廠並不是造紙廠。總的來說，我們正在整合德國現有業務範圍內的業務量。因此，保持較低的固定成本開銷對於系統來說更有利，因此自然會受益。

In terms of the tariffs, important to remember that the 10% was already in for a lot of the paper imports into North America anyway across the piece. So the incremental 5% doesn't present that much of an upward correction given what the number could have been as of the first of August. I think historically, the consumer tends to take on about 70% of all the tariff increase. So I think we've seen some of that come through. But I think our position based on where we sit today is I don't think we will naturally see any change in flows of imports or exports of papers in or out in North America based on the tariffs that they currently sit today.

就關稅而言，重要的是要記住，對於大量進口到北美的紙張，10% 的關稅已經存在。因此，考慮到 8 月 1 日的數字，增量 5% 並不代表太大的向上修正。我認為從歷史上看，消費者往往承擔約 70% 的關稅成長。所以我認為我們已經看到了一些成果。但我認為，根據我們目前的狀況，我認為基於目前的關稅，我們不會自然地看到北美紙張進出口流量有任何變化。

While the yeah, the margins might erode it for the imports into North America for the European producers, it still probably presents a slightly better market than other markets for them. So I wouldn't necessarily expect any shift to change there.

雖然對於歐洲生產商來說，利潤可能會降低其進口到北美市場的利潤率，但對他們來說，北美市場可能仍然比其他市場略好一些。所以我不一定期望那裡會發生任何變化。

Clearly, given our footprint in North America around paperboard probably does present an opportunity around the cost of the domestic product versus on the imported product is much more attractive. I think you would hear that yesterday from one of our peers, too. So you won't be surprised by that. We've always kind of said that the real impact in the system of what happened to consumer demand. I think you can see the volumes in the second quarter, particularly in North America, market down 2.5%.

顯然，考慮到我們在北美紙板領域的足跡，可能確實提供了一個機會，即國內產品的成本與進口產品相比更具吸引力。我想你昨天也會從我們的一位同行那裡聽到這個消息。所以你不會對此感到驚訝。我們總是說，消費者需求的改變對系統產生了真正的影響。我認為你可以看到第二季的銷量，特別是北美市場，下降了 2.5%。

We were slightly more than that. But again, that was targeted around exactly what Tony spoke about there, limiting loss makers and unprofitable volume.

我們比那稍微多一點。但同樣，這正是托尼所談論的內容，即限制虧損企業和無利可圖的交易量。

I think in Europe, given where Germany sits as far as that economy, the settling of the tariffs should in theory, given the size of the German economy in the context of Europe, give some impetus if Germany wants that in terms of pushing Europe forward. What we are flat volumes in the second quarter in Europe. But as we look out, nothing yet to suggest that, that demand picture will change very quickly. And we're starting up baking that into any of our forecasts. So it remains sort of a relatively volume is okay.

我認為，考慮到德國在歐洲的經濟地位，考慮到德國經濟在歐洲的規模，如果德國希望推動歐洲向前發展，那麼從理論上講，關稅的解決應該會給歐洲帶來一些動力。我們第二季在歐洲的銷售量持平。但據我們觀察，目前還沒有任何跡象顯示需求狀況將會快速改變。我們開始將其納入我們的任何預測中。因此，其數量仍然相對較多。

Demand is okay, but could be a whole lot better. And I think as the tariff picture settles in, I think we'll see where consumer confidence might come back in certain areas that's been lacking, I think, in the last year or so.

需求還可以，但還可以更好。我認為，隨著關稅情勢的穩定，我們將看到消費者信心在某些領域可能會恢復，而我認為，這種信心在過去一年左右一直缺乏。

Yeah. The only thing I would say is that we're waiting for the seasonal demand pickup in the United States to happen. We didn't see it move forward in July and hopefully, we'll start seeing that come forward in August and September based upon the settling of the tariff situation, if that happens because there's still a lot of unanswered questions with regard to Canada, Mexico and a lot of Latin American countries. So we'll wait and see over the next few days and including China. So we'll wait and see over the next few days what transpires in those there is.

是的。我唯一想說的是，我們正在等待美國季節性需求的回升。我們在 7 月沒有看到任何進展，希望在 8 月和 9 月關稅情況得到解決後，我們能夠開始看到這一進展，如果發生這種情況，因為關於加拿大、墨西哥和許多拉丁美洲國家仍有許多未解的問題。因此，我們將在接下來的幾天拭目以待，包括中國。因此，我們將在接下來的幾天裡拭目以待，看看會發生什麼。

That's very helpful, thank you.

這非常有幫助，謝謝。

Thanks, Lewis.

謝謝，劉易斯。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Phil Ng。

Hey guys, Tony, you gave some great color with Roxland earlier. So on the loss-making contracts in North America, can you kind of give us a little more flavor in terms of how that winds down? Is that a two-year cycle waterfall? And when you think about your team, are you in a good spot to value sell, right? It's about offering the service through reliability and the buy-in from your sales force?

嘿夥計們，托尼，你之前和羅克克蘭一起給人們帶來了很多精彩的色彩。那麼，關於北美的虧損合同，您能否向我們詳細介紹如何結束這種合約？那是兩年周期的瀑布嗎？當您考慮您的團隊時，您是否處於一個可以進行價值推銷的好位置，對嗎？這是透過可靠性和銷售人員的認可來提供服務嗎？

Just give us a little sense on where they sit on that front? And then just the environment as well because we've seen obviously a lot of capacity come out. So you've been in North America some time. How do you think about the SAP here from an industry structure standpoint as well?

請告訴我們他們在這方面的立場如何？然後還有環境，因為我們顯然已經看到很多產能被耗盡。您已經來過北美一段時間了。從產業結構的角度來看，您如何看待這裡的 SAP？

Okay. A lot of questions there. Are we in a good spot with regard to innovation? Yeah. But as I said in my commentary, we're in the early innings.

好的。那裡有很多問題。我們在創新方面是否處於有利地位？是的。但正如我在評論中所說，我們才剛剛開始。

So for example, Phil, we have just recently hired a new innovation person when I say recently, 4 or 5 months ago now, to be our corrugated innovation person from a major brewery company. And he's been learning our business and is doing very well. I'm very happy with them. We're all happy with them. And we have a global innovation conference with our innovators in September, whereby we're going to pool the knowledge that we have across our companies.

舉個例子，菲爾，我們最近剛聘請了一位新的創新人員，也就是最近，也就是 4 或 5 個月前，他來自一家大型釀酒公司，是我們的瓦楞創新人員。他一直在學習我們的業務，而且做得很好。我對他們非常滿意。我們都對他們很滿意。我們將於 9 月與創新者舉行全球創新會議，在會議中我們將匯集我們各公司的知識。

And I have to say that there's some really good innovation in the legacy Westrock business, too, that we need to make sure that we got all the the information coral and then we have to bring it into the organization in a controlled way that so from the point of view of where we're at, in Europe, obviously, we're in very good shape.

而且我必須說，傳統的 Westrock 業務中也有一些非常好的創新，我們需要確保獲得所有信息，然後以可控的方式將其帶入組織，因此從我們所在的位置來看，在歐洲，顯然我們的狀況非常好。

In North America, we've got some very good spots of it, but we've got to corral it a bit more. And in Latin America, we're in good shape. So I think what we'll do, you'll see a big, big move over the next year in our whole innovative selling as we roll this out across our global basis, but specifically in North America. We're set up a lot of capacity has come out of the market. That's for sure.

在北美，我們已經擁有一些非常好的地點，但我們必須對其進行更多的控制。在拉丁美洲，我們的狀況良好。所以我認為，隨著我們在全球範圍內，特別是在北美推廣這項舉措，您會看到我們明年在整個創新銷售方面有一個巨大的進步。我們已經設定了大量產能已經退出市場。這是肯定的。

Demand if there's any pickup in demand, that will obviously be very good for the situation. We don't envisage taking much downtime, if any, in the second half of the year other than the normal maintenance type downtime and the odd problem that we're going to have inevitably in some of our mills. But so we don't envisage taking downtime.

如果需求有任何回升，那顯然對情況非常有利。除了正常的維護停機時間和我們某些工廠不可避免地會遇到的奇怪問題外，我們預計下半年不會出現太多停機時間。但我們並不打算停機。

We would like to see demand a little bit stronger, Philip, to be honest. It's we know that we're going to replace that bad volume with better volume and every plant I go to, you can see the enthusiasm of the sales teams. And when we start to roll out this innovation even in a greater way, then it's going to be much stronger for our team. So we with the normal lag of replacing it, I think we're going to be in good shape, but we would like to see the general market be better. We're hearing about a lot of customers themselves taking downtime for a week or two weeks, which obviously not what we want to hear.

說實話，菲利普，我們希望看到需求更加強勁一些。我們知道，我們將用更好的銷售量取代不好的銷售量，我去的每一個工廠，你都可以看到銷售團隊的熱情。當我們開始以更大的方式推廣這項創新時，我們的團隊將會變得更加強大。因此，在正常的替換滯後情況下，我認為我們會處於良好狀態，但我們希望看到整體市場更好。我們聽說很多客戶自己停機一周或兩週，這顯然不是我們想聽到的。

We want to hear about an economy that's moving forward. So that's the only, I suppose, issue that I would have right now.

我們希望了解正在向前發展的經濟。所以我想這是我現在唯一遇到的問題。

With regard to the first question, which was?

關於第一個問題，是什麼？

The wind down of loan profit contracts .

貸款利潤合約的終止。

The wind down, I would say by this time next year, with the exception of very few, we would suggest that they will all be gone this time next year. .

我想說，到明年這個時候，除了極少數人之外，我們認為他們明年這個時候都會全部離開。。

Okay. That's great color. Really appreciate it and exciting opportunity in front of you. Europe, I'm just generally less familiar with. The margins were a little lighter than expected.

好的。顏色真棒。真的很感激你面前這個令人興奮的機會。我對歐洲整體不太熟悉。利潤比預期的少一些。

Can you provide some color on some the headwinds in the quarter and how you kind of see that progressing in the back half of the year, especially with some of the movement you've seen on OCC and gas prices?

您能否介紹一下本季的一些不利因素，以及您如何看待這些因素在下半年的發展，尤其是您看到的 OCC 和天然氣價格的一些變動？

Yeah. I mean I'll let Ken take that. But I mean, we're in better shape on costs in the second half than we were in the first half as a general view. But Ken?

是的。我的意思是我會讓肯來接受它。但我的意思是，從整體來看，我們下半年的成本狀況比上半年好。但是肯？

Yeah. Phil, January, Europe in the second quarter we did do a good bit on price as deposit in that quarter, a 3% on boxes, but that was offset by a little bit of volume lower than we want to. Energy higher than the top, but that's come down a piece since. Recovered fiber, I think, was a big headwind of about $28 million in the quarter itself versus last year. And labor, actually 17%.

是的。菲爾，1 月份，歐洲第二季度我們確實在價格上取得了不錯的成績，即該季度的定金價格上漲了 3%，但是這被比我們想要的低一點的銷量所抵消。能量高於頂部，但自那時起就下降了一些。我認為，與去年相比，本季回收纖維的損失約為 2800 萬美元，這是一大障礙。勞動力實際上佔17%。

There are two big ones. So predominantly box pricing offset by, call it, some energy recovered fiber, a little bit of labor, getting square the air. But as you kind of move forward through the year, I think you see the backdrop around recovered fiber a little bit of labor and certainly energy get a lot better than we would have thought at the start of the year. .

有兩個大問題。因此，主要的盒子定價被一些能量回收纖維、一點點勞動力所抵消，從而使空氣變得平坦。但隨著時間的推移，我認為你會看到回收纖維的背景、一點勞動力以及能源的情況比我們年初想像的要好得多。。

Okay thank you appreciate.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you, Phil.

謝謝你，菲爾。

Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

Tony, Ken, good afternoon. Tony, if you can. Tony, if you can on the second half, maybe put a little bit more of a finer point on some of the underlying assumptions sort of in the $1.3 billion, and I guess sort of at the midpoint, around $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter in terms of volume expectations across the three regions. And just more specifically in North America, we're reading some reports about some retail business moving around and I was curious if you were expecting kind of that down 4.5%-ish rate to accelerate in the back half or get better? I know you just kind of told us by June of next year or second quarter things should be getting close to normalized. But any color there would be helpful.

東尼、肯，下午好。東尼，如果你可以的話。東尼，如果您可以就下半年的情況進行更詳細的說明，請您就一些基本假設進行更詳細的說明，例如 13 億美元左右，我猜這個中間值應該是第四季度三個地區的交易量預期在 13 億美元左右。更具體地說，在北美，我們讀到了一些關於零售業務變動的報告，我很好奇，您是否預計下半年 4.5% 左右的下降速度會加速或改善？我知道您剛才告訴我們，到明年 6 月或第二季度，情況應該會接近正常化。但任何顏色都會有幫助。

I'll do the volume piece and then hand over the assumptions to Ken. Basically, I would suspect that we should start to see normal seasonal pickup in volumes. That's what we're obviously believing. That's what typically happens. At this time, we have no reason to believe it won't happen.

我會做體積部分，然後將假設交給肯。基本上，我認為我們應該開始看到正常的季節性銷售回升。這顯然是我們堅信的。這就是通常發生的情況。目前，我們沒有理由相信這不會發生。

The but we're not assuming that we even if I think that we've won a lot of business in new places, that will probably impact us next year. I think that the second half, we're assuming basically flat volumes to where we are now. We don't expect deterioration, but neither do we expect things to be materially better. So that's sort of our assumption on volumes.

但我們並不認為，即使我認為我們在新的地方贏得了許多業務，這也可能對我們明年產生影響。我認為下半年的交易量將與現在基本持平。我們不期望情況惡化，但也不期望情況會實質地好轉。這就是我們對數量的假設。

So Ken, do you want to take any other assumptions?

那麼 Ken，你還想做其他假設嗎？

Gabe, taking the third quarter specifically, I think we can make it really easy for you. The third quarter gone $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, it's just really two things. It's lower downtime, which is about a $50 million impact in the quarter positively. And the rest is really around recovered fiber predominantly for the other $50 million. So it's really relief on cost inflation.

加布，具體到第三季度，我想我們可以讓你輕鬆一點。第三季的營收為 12 億至 13 億美元，這其實只是兩件事。停機時間減少，對本季產生了約 5000 萬美元的正面影響。其餘的 5000 萬美元主要都是回收纖維。因此這確實可以緩解成本通膨。

There's no real assumptions there, as Tony said, it's flat volume, not necessarily baking in the in price for the third quarter. So really, the third quarter, $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion is as predominantly recovery fiber and then lower maintenance downtime in the third quarter over the second quarter.

正如東尼所說，這裡沒有真正的假設，這是持平的交易量，不一定會影響第三季的價格。因此，實際上，第三季的 12 億美元、13 億美元主要用於恢復光纖，且第三季的維護停機時間比第二季減少。

For the full year, we kind of end up at the same place as we guided all year. I suppose the moving parts of being, as Tony just said there, moving to flat volumes for the back half, albeit lower for the first six months. So lower on volume but doing a bit better on price across the year than we would have initially thought and certainly a lot better in energy. So energy, where we might have guided that $350 million headwind year-on-year is now about $250 million. Other raw materials probably doing little bit better at $50 million.

就全年而言，我們最終都處於與我們全年指導的相同的位置。我認為，正如托尼剛才所說的那樣，下半年的銷售將趨於平穩，儘管前六個月的銷售量較低。因此，雖然銷量較低，但全年價格表現比我們最初想像的要好一些，而且能源方面肯定要好得多。因此，我們原本預期能源領域的逆風將年比為 3.5 億美元，現在約為 2.5 億美元。其他原料的表現可能稍好一些，價值為 5,000 萬美元。

Things like recover fiber itself, where we might have guided a headwind of about $154 million, $155 million at the start of the year. Probably see that more down the $105 million, $110 million space over the $40 million, $50 million saving there. And across even labor is a little bit better as we get into the second half.

例如回收纖維本身，我們可能在年初就預見了約 1.54 億美元、1.55 億美元的逆風。可能看到那裡節省了 1.05 億美元和 1.1 億美元，而節省的 4,000 萬美元和 5,000 萬美元則少了不少。隨著我們進入下半年，勞動力狀況也略有改善。

So there's some big chunky moving parts and I know Ciaran and Frank can take you through in a bit more detail. But broadly, I think if you were characterized in the second half from where we are now, doing it better in energy, doing a bit better on labor, a bit better on our covered fiber, a bit better on price, volumes remained flat, and you kind of dealt on all that as you end up back at the same place.

因此，有一些大塊頭的活動部件，我知道 Ciaran 和 Frank 可以向您更詳細地介紹一下。但總的來說，我認為如果從我們現在的情況來描述下半年的情況，我們會在能源方面做得更好，在勞動力方面做得更好，在我們覆蓋的光纖方面做得更好，在價格方面做得更好，而交易量保持平穩，你處理完所有這些問題後，最終又回到了原來的位置。

All right. And one last one. I guess, Tony, you alluded to not being a million miles away, kind of giving us an update on the Consumer Packaging business. I think you talked about volumes being down Ken, $2.7 million, if I heard you correctly, in Americas and that includes Mexico down a little bit more. Just curious, kind of, again, another quarter under the belt and thinking about sort of the opportunity set there to be on both sides of the house in terms of consumer and corrugated.

好的。最後一個。我想，東尼，你暗示的並不是離我們太遠，而是在向我們提供有關消費品包裝業務的最新情況。肯，我想你談到了交易量下降，如果我沒聽錯的話，美洲（包括墨西哥）的交易量下降了 270 萬美元，下降幅度更大一些。只是好奇，有點，再次，又一個季度過去了，思考在消費者和瓦楞紙方面在房子的兩邊設置的機會。

Any updates there?

有任何更新嗎？

Yeah. It still feels like it's a very good business to be involved in. I think we've got some very strong market positions. The cross-selling opportunities are in Europe, where we're a bit more advanced on that is very strong. We're because we're much bigger and corrugated than we are in consumer, we're introducing our consumer folks who are really very let's say, either in health and beauty, which is more of a niche.

是的。我仍覺得這是一項非常值得參與的事業。我認為我們擁有非常強大的市場地位。交叉銷售機會在歐洲，我們在這方面做得比較好，而且非常強勁。因為我們在消費者領域比在更大、更多元化，所以我們向那些真正對健康和美容非常感興趣的消費者介紹我們的產品，因為這更像是一個利基市場。

But on the general markets, they didn't really have a lot of selling tools, which we're now obviously opening up for them. So that's a big opportunity in Europe for our consumer businesses.

但在一般市場上，他們實際上並沒有很多銷售工具，而我們現在顯然正在為他們開放這些工具。因此，這對我們在歐洲的消費業務來說是一個巨大的機會。

And if you take the United States, I think, generally speaking, we've got some very good businesses with great people. And we've got to think about structurally a couple of issues like SBS, our long position in SBS, but we have ideas that we'll come forward with probably towards the back end of this year or early part of next year as to what we're doing on that.

以美國為例，我認為整體而言，我們擁有一些非常優秀的企業和優秀的人才。我們必須從結構上考慮一些問題，例如 SBS，我們在 SBS 的多頭頭寸，但我們有一些想法，可能會在今年年底或明年年初提出，說明我們將如何處理這些問題。

And Gabe, just to help you that the consumer volumes, yeah, $2.7 million down for the quarter, including Mexico. If you exclude Mexico, it's probably more like 2% then. .

加布，只是為了幫助你了解消費量，是的，本季包括墨西哥在內的消費量下降了 270 萬美元。如果排除墨西哥，那麼這一比例可能更接近 2%。。

Thank you and goodbye.

謝謝，再見。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Charlie Muir-Sands, BNP Pariba Exane.

查理·繆爾·桑茲 (Charlie Muir-Sands)，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Good afternoon guys, thanks for taking the questions. Just a couple of follow-ups on the topics that have already been covered. Just firstly, on the loss-making box contracts. Obviously, you said you sort of 40% through. Is there any possibility of putting any kind of dollar numbers around the level of losses you think that on a fully costed basis, that, that business was dragging profits historically?

大家下午好，感謝你們回答問題。僅針對已涉及的主題進行一些後續討論。首先，關於虧損的箱體合約。顯然，您說您已經完成了 40%。您認為，在完全成本計算的基礎上，是否可以用美元數字來表示損失水平，即該業務在歷史上拖累了利潤？

And then secondly, you're talking about some of the assumptions into the second half and talked about flat volumes. I just wanted to clarify. Are you talking half-on-half or year-on-year? The reason I somewhat asked is that the last two years on a pro forma basis, there's been a bit of a historic dip in in profits, particularly in North America business in Q4. I don't know whether there's sort of a reshuffle of the phasing of maintenance, which means that, that won't recur this year, but I'm just trying to get some understanding so we don't get caught out because obviously, the implied fourth quarter guide range is now quite wide.

其次，您正在談論下半年的一些假設，並談到了平穩的交易量。我只是想澄清一下。您說的是同比還是上半年？我之所以問這個問題，是因為過去兩年，從準備角度來看，利潤出現了歷史性的下降，尤其是第四季的北美業務。我不知道維護階段是否會有某種改組，這意味著今年不會再發生這種情況，但我只是想了解一下，這樣我們就不會陷入困境，因為顯然，隱含的第四季度指導範圍現在相當廣泛。

I'll let Ken take the second question, Ken?

我請肯回答第二個問題，肯？

I suppose the reason the range is there, Charlie, to take account of that fact. I suppose, look, if we think about where we sit the assumption the two big calls in the second half are the one they call really, where does demand go. Currently, the first two quarters are probably under well in terms of where it ended up and the second half, we're not really baking in much in terms of assumptions of an portion as Tony talked about seasonality and everything else. So I think with the range we put in place, there's a lot to play for there both on the upside, but slightly moderating to the side, but we're not talking about a big number either side of this either way. So and as you know, given our history, volume is not really the real predictor of where we'll end up.

查理，我想這個範圍存在的原因就是考慮到了這個事實。我想，如果我們考慮一下我們所處的假設，下半年的兩個大電話是他們真正所說的，那麼需求會去哪裡。目前，就最終結果而言，前兩個季度的業績可能表現良好，而對於下半年，我們並沒有在部分假設方面投入太多精力，正如托尼談到的季節性和其他所有因素一樣。因此，我認為，在我們設定的範圍內，有很多事情可以做，一方面是好的，但另一方面是稍微緩和的，但無論如何，我們談論的並不是一個很大的數字。所以，正如你所知，鑑於我們的歷史，數量並不是我們最終走向何方的真正預測因素。

But what we do on price. And certainly, in that sense, we're doing a bit better on price than we might have thought as we come into the six months.

但我們在價格方面做了什麼。當然，從這個意義上來說，進入六個月以來，我們的價格表現比我們想像的要好一些。

Charlie, on the box plants, let me just try and articulate it. I mean, they have over 100 box plants. So obviously, some are profitable. But if you take a box plant system that was losing relatively significant money. I don't want to break it out last year.

查理，關於箱栽植物，讓我試著表達。我的意思是，他們有超過 100 株箱苗。顯然，有些是有利可圖的。但是如果你採用箱式植物系統，那就會損失相當多的錢。我不想打破去年的紀錄。

And if you take a box on system that's, call it, $1 billion in sales or so, you know you should be sorry, you should be making about somewhere between 8% and 12% margin in your box plant system. So on the 10 bps, I should say $10 billion on the $10 billion sales system, you should be making somewhere between $800 million and $1.2 billion on the box plant system, and it was loss making last year. So obviously, we're not there yet, but that will be our goal over the next five years to get there.

如果你擁有一個銷售額約 10 億美元的盒式系統，你知道你應該感到抱歉，你的盒式工廠系統的利潤率應該在 8% 到 12% 之間。因此，按照 10 個基點計算，我應該說，在 100 億美元的銷售系統中，你應該在箱式工廠系統中賺取 8 億至 12 億美元之間的利潤，而去年它是虧損的。顯然，我們還沒有達到這個目標，但這將是我們未來五年的目標。

Sorry, Charlie.

對不起，查理。

And that's a material improvement and obviously, a long way ahead of where -- when we talk about synergies, it's a lot more than the synergies we can get if we get to that point.

這是一個實質的進步，顯然，當我們談論協同效應時，它比我們達到那個程度所能獲得的協同效應要好得多。

Sorry, Charlie, I skipped your fundamental question I give you the long answer. It's flat volumes half two versus half one.

抱歉，查理，我跳過了你的基本問題，我給你一個詳細的答案。它的體積是二分之一對一分之一的平卷。

Great, thank you. Thank you.

太好了，謝謝。謝謝。

Detlef Winckelmann, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Detlef Winckelmann。

Hi there, thanks for taking my questions. I've got two. So the very first one comes back to your EBITDA bridge into Q3. I understood from the earlier question that it's $50 million maintenance $40 million to $50 million in lower OCC or recovered fiber costs. I'm a bit surprised that there's no price in there. I mean my understanding was that the linerboard price increases we saw in the US as well as in Europe wouldn't have been fully implemented by Q2. Can you just touch on that? And then I'll come back to my second.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。因此，第一個問題回到了進入第三季的 EBITDA 橋樑。我從先前的問題中了解到，維護費用為 5,000 萬美元，而降低 OCC 或回收光纖成本則為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。我有點驚訝那裡沒有價格。我的意思是，我的理解是，我們在美國和歐洲看到的紙板價格上漲不會在第二季完全實施。您能簡單談談這一點嗎？然後我會回到我的第二個主題。

Detlef, yeah. But I suppose that's to be played out during the quarter. Like in the reality, the big building rosin, a $1.2 million to $1.3 billion are the $50 million for downtime and the $50 million for the cost books. You also have to remember that within that, we're not making any assumptions where volume might go in the third quarter either. So there's a bit of moderation there in terms of conservatism around price and volume.

德特勒夫，是的。但我認為這將在本季內完成。就像現實中，大型建築松香，120萬到13億美元是停機時間的5000萬美元和成本帳簿的5000萬美元。您還必須記住，我們也不會對第三季的交易量做出任何假設。因此，在價格和數量的保守性方面存在一些適度性。

So as we sit here today, $1.3 billion there thereabouts seems right in our heads in to where we'll end up.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們心中認為 13 億美元左右就是我們最終的目標。

Okay. Perfect. And then a very technical one or maybe a stupid question. But I mean, when I look at your synergies here, you've given us, I think it was Q1 synergies of $80 million. Q2 implied is about $100 million.

好的。完美的。然後是一個非常技術性的問題，或者可能是一個愚蠢的問題。但我的意思是，當我看到你們在這裡為我們帶來的協同效應時，我認為第一季的協同效應是 8000 萬美元。第二季隱含價值約1億美元。

And then the full year, we've got about $350 million. So that implies that we're going to go backwards at some point in Q3, Q4? Does that make sense? Or am I just misreading that?

全年我們大約有 3.5 億美元。那麼，這是否意味著我們將在第三季、第四季的某個時候出現倒退？這樣有道理嗎？或者我只是誤解了？

I don't think it's going backwards. It's about how you achieve them and when you achieve them. Look, they all come in at different times depending on if it's in purchasing when you get those purchasing contracts through if it's around whatever it might be consolidation of volume on more efficient machine sales just happen at different paces. I think with synergies, you're not necessarily looking for a constant run rate in terms of the quarter itself, but the ultimate run rate in terms of where the synergies go. So the achievement in the quarter is something, but ultimately, I don't think we think of it as going backwards.

我不認為這是倒退。關鍵在於你如何實現它們以及何時實現它們。你看，它們都是在不同的時間進入的，這取決於它是否在採購過程中，當你獲得那些採購合約時，如果它圍繞著任何可能進行批量整合的更高效的機器銷售，只是以不同的速度發生。我認為，對於協同效應，你不一定需要尋求季度本身的恆定運行率，而是需要尋求協同效應最終的運行率。因此，本季所取得的成就值得肯定，但最終，我認為我們不會認為這是倒退。

I think we think about hitting the synergy number and exiting 25% of that flow of $400 million in our pockets

我認為我們考慮達到協同效應，並將 4 億美元資金流的 25% 投入我們的口袋中

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Lars Kjellberg, Stiflel.

拉爾斯·謝爾伯格（Lars Kjellberg），史蒂夫萊爾（Stiflel）。

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. Tony, you just alluded to a number of $800 million to $1 billion in the box system and of course, you have spoken to the operational and commercial improvement opportunities of at least $400 million, i.e., equal to the synergies. two questions on that. I mean you highlighted that potentially a much larger number the second real question is, where are we on this now? Are we starting to see any of that equal to at least the synergies coming through in the current year? Or is that starting to come through in '26 and build over the years to come?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。東尼，您剛才提到了盒子系統中 8 億到 10 億美元的數字，當然，您還談到了至少 4 億美元的營運和商業改進機會，即相當於協同效應。關於這一點有兩個問題。我的意思是，您強調了潛在的更大數字，第二個真正的問題是，我們現在處於什麼位置？我們是否開始看到其中至少與今年出現的協同效應相當的效應？或者這種趨勢從 26 年開始顯現，並在未來幾年逐漸增強？

No, we're definitely starting to see some of that, Lars. I mean, we have continued to see improvement in our box system, as I mentioned. So that -- some of that improvement is already in our numbers. And we have a long way to go in our box system, but there's already an improvement in the first half in our corrugated system versus last year in a considerable way. I'm very happy with how that system is moving and how the team are responding if you look at the performance of the company, and you can see that our margins have grown in the United States, it's basically synergies and improvement in our corrugated box system.

不，我們確實開始看到一些這樣的情況了，拉爾斯。我的意思是，正如我所提到的，我們的箱子系統不斷地改進。所以——我們的數字已經顯示出一些改善。我們的紙箱系統還有很長的路要走，但與去年相比，我們的瓦楞紙系統在上半年已經有了顯著的改善。如果您看一下公司的業績，我對該系統的運作情況和團隊的反應感到非常滿意，您會發現我們在美國的利潤率有所增長，這基本上是瓦楞紙箱系統的協同效應和改進。

And then you look at you look at where our company has had difficulty has been in Europe, where we have had 18%, 19% margins in the past, and we're down in the mid- to low-teens at the moment. That's a reflection in the market, which, as I said, I think, is at the bottom or close to the bottom and will improve. The question is when will the demand environment improved to really pull that thing forward. And that's is it 2026 or the second half, first half 2027, we don't know. But Europe itself is not too bad with the exception of one or two markets.

然後你看看我們公司在歐洲遇到的困難，過去我們的利潤率為 18% 到 19%，而目前我們的利潤率已經下降到 15% 左右。這是市場的一個反映，正如我所說，我認為市場已經處於底部或接近底部，並且將會改善。問題是需求環境何時才能改善，從而真正推動這項進程。那是 2026 年，還是 2027 年下半年、上半年，我們還不知道。但歐洲本身除了一兩個市場外，情況還不算太糟。

And unfortunately, one of those markets is Germany, which is the biggest, and that pulls the Europe down.

不幸的是，其中一個市場是德國，它是最大的市場，這拖累了歐洲。

And just coming back to what you just said about some of that is in your numbers. You spoke to cause value revolve is making progress. But at the same time, you said you it will take a bit of time to fill those machines. So basically, the numbers now cutting the losses and a real benefit where it really started to move into the revenue line and and EBITDA, that's still to come. Just to clarity on that.

回到您剛才所說的，其中一些內容體現在您的數字中。您所說的原因價值旋轉正在取得進展。但同時，您說填滿這些機器需要一些時間。因此，基本上，現在的數字正在減少損失，並帶來真正的好處，它真正開始進入收入線和 EBITDA，但這仍有待實現。只是為了澄清這一點。

And -- sorry. Go ahead.

而且——抱歉。前進。

No, go ahead. Go ahead. No, I'm going to say you're right. Just agreeing with you.

不，繼續吧。前進。不，我要說你是對的。只是同意你的看法。

Good. Very good. The rating upgrade has had me anything to do from a financing point of view?

好的。非常好。從融資角度來看，評級升級對我有什麼影響嗎？

Not really, Lars. To be honest with you, from an economic point of view, it's very little. It did give us a small decrease in our revolver and some of our commercial paper programs. But actually, when you look at our bonds and how they price, we probably price already at BBB+ to be on. So we presented the BBB+ credit, which we would have done out of the box with all the agencies from an economics perspective.

不是的，拉爾斯。老實說，從經濟角度來看，這很少。這確實使我們的循環信貸和一些商業票據項目略有減少。但實際上，當你查看我們的債券及其定價時，我們可能已經將價格定為 BBB+。因此，我們提出了 BBB+ 信用評級，從經濟角度來看，我們會與所有機構一起這樣做。

So small savings but not material in the round.

雖然省了一點錢，但整體來說並不划算。

Thank you and good luck.

謝謝，祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners

溫特勞布（Mark Weintraub），海港研究夥伴

Thank you. Thanks for a very comprehensive review. So far, I mean, one thing I haven't heard is currency very much. And we've obviously had a very big move in the euro relative to the dollar over the course of this year. Can you explain to us a little bit how that's impacted results and sort of sensitivities in the way we should be thinking about it as we model forward?

謝謝。感謝您的全面評論。到目前為止，我的意思是，我還沒有聽說過太多關於貨幣的事情。顯然，今年以來歐元兌美元的匯率出現了很大的波動。您能否向我們稍微解釋一下這對結果有何影響，以及我們在製定未來模型時應該如何考慮它的敏感性？

Mark, actually, the reason you haven't heard it, it didn't actually have much of an impact, to be honest with you. Any of the moves in the dollar in Europe, for example, were compensator offset by moves in Latin America. So I think net-net, if memory serves me, I think the it was about $8 million in total was the currency impact on EBITDA year-on-year, I think. So that was it to the square of really nothing.

馬克，實際上，你沒有聽到它的原因是，老實說，它實際上並沒有產生太大的影響。例如，歐洲美元的任何變動都會被拉丁美洲的變動所抵消。因此，我認為，如果我沒記錯的話，貨幣對 EBITDA 的影響總計約為 800 萬美元，比去年同期而言。所以這實際上什麼都沒有。

In terms of sensitivities, broadly, every $0.01 move in the dollar would be plus or minus $12 million. It's as simple as that, in Europe. If you take a euro number move by sent you get an impact of about $12 million broadly. And on the debt side, that's about $30 million.

就敏感度而言，大體而言，美元每變動 0.01 美元，就會增加或減少 1,200 萬美元。在歐洲，事情就是這麼簡單。如果您將歐元數字轉移，那麼您將受到約 1200 萬美元的影響。就債務而言，約為 3000 萬美元。

Okay. And that captures the translation of...

好的。這體現了……的翻譯。

Yeah, broadly. As you can imagine, it's it's a rough crude calculation based on what we see and what we know over time. But broadly, what we see is if you take your euro earnings on a translation basis, every $0.01 will be plus or minus $12 million. .

是的，大體上如此。你可以想像，這是根據我們所看到的和我們長期以來所了解的情況進行的粗略計算。但總體而言，我們看到的是，如果以歐元計算收入，每 0.01 美元就會增加或減少 1,200 萬美元。。

Okay. Super. And then just last sort of big picture, as I was hearing it, a number of things have played out a bit favorably relative to initial expectations, which is great and you kind of you listed a bunch of them. And you sort of kept guidance to where it was. Is that primarily that your the volume situation, the uncertainty on the volume situation?

好的。極好的。最後再說一下整體情況，正如我所聽到的，很多事情的進展都比最初的預期要好一些，這很好，你列舉了很多。並且你在某種程度上保持了對它所在位置的引導。這主要是因為您的交易量狀況、交易量狀況的不確定性嗎？

What has sort of held you back from this leading to perhaps a little bit more optimism on the outcome for the year?

是什麼因素阻礙了您實現這一目標，讓您對今年的結果更加樂觀？

I think it's -- I mean, you read the same newspapers that we all read, and there's obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, whether it's tariffs or whether it's the general economy or the consumer confidence. So I think that each individual economy has its own different challenges. But when you we don't see, we haven't seen volume picking up yet in the United States and clearly, if volume picked up in the United States that will give us more confidence, but we haven't seen that yet. And until we see that, then we're going to hold our fire because it's there are a couple of markets that are pretty important to us.

我認為——我的意思是，你和我們都讀同樣的報紙，顯然，存在著許多不確定性，無論是關稅，還是整體經濟或消費者信心。所以我認為每個經濟體都有自己不同的挑戰。但是當我們沒有看到時，我們還沒有看到美國的交易量回升，顯然，如果美國的交易量回升，這將給我們更多的信心，但我們還沒有看到這一點。直到我們看到這一點之前，我們才會採取行動，因為有幾個市場對我們來說非常重要。

Germany is one. And we don't see any major improvements in that market at this juncture. And the United States, as I say, we're going through this transition period where we are looking for newer volumes and phasing out some volumes where we're not able to make any money on it. So that's outside the whole economic environment, which is, I say, we all read the same newspapers there or maybe we don't read them. We look at them online anymore.

德國就是其中之一。目前我們還沒有看到該市場有任何重大改善。正如我所說，美國正在經歷一個過渡時期，我們正在尋找新的產量，並逐步淘汰一些我們無法從中賺錢的產量。所以這超出了整個經濟環境的範圍，也就是說，我們都讀同樣的報紙，或者也許我們不讀。我們不再在線觀看它們。

But I think so we're just -- if you see volumes pick up, then clearly, things will be much better.

但我認為我們只是——如果你看到交易量回升，那麼顯然情況會好得多。

Fair enough. And maybe this is related to all of this and maybe I remember wrong, but I thought we had like $100 million negative from maintenance in the second quarter. And you're talking about getting $50 million back, but running pretty full. So I'm just trying to understand that dynamic.

很公平。也許這與所有這些都有關，也許我記得錯了，但我認為我們第二季的維護支出為負 1 億美元。你說你要拿回 5000 萬美元，但現在已經用得差不多了。所以我只是想了解這種動態。

Yeah. But remember, also, we begin to see the impact of the closure of four in that quarter too. So the need to take less downtime comes into view too. Clearly, market, it's an estimate as we start the quarter. If the demand picture deteriorates to any significant impact.

是的。但請記住，我們也開始看到該季度關閉四家公司的影響。因此，減少停機時間的必要性也凸顯出來。顯然，市場這是我們在本季開始時做出的估計。如果需求狀況惡化，將產生重大影響。

It doesn't change much. We can flex that. It's not. It's just currently where we sit the demand picture, the order book, everything else would suggest that the less downtime in the third quarter over the second quarter. And some of that is the impact of the closure for helping that.

沒有太大改變。我們可以靈活運用這一點。它不是。目前，我們根據需求情況、訂單情況和其他所有情況來看，第三季的停工時間比第二季少。其中一部分是關閉的影響，以幫助實現這一點。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. With some of the actions that you've taken in North America, can you remind us what your integration rate is in corrugated and consumer. And then broadly, as you kind of execute the operational improvement in your box system, I'm wondering how you kind of compare the carton converting system in terms of sort of opportunity, quality and where you are versus where you want to be?

早安.結合你們在北美採取的一些行動，能否讓我們看看你們在瓦楞紙和消費品領域的整合率是多少？然後，從廣義上講，當您在紙箱系統中執行操作改進時，我想知道您如何在機會、品質以及您目前所處的位置與您想要達到的位置方面比較紙箱轉換系統？

Okay. I'll take the second one. I mean we are -- I have to say that I've been very impressed with the carton -- most of the carton plants, which I've seen and the operations that we have. We obviously have some strong, very strong market positions with very big customers. And as you will have seen, a lot of our larger customers have some volume issues themselves in the consumer business.

好的。我要第二個。我的意思是——我不得不說，我對紙箱——我所見過的大多數紙箱工廠以及我們的運營都印象深刻。顯然，我們擁有一些非常強大的市場地位，並且擁有非常大的客戶。正如您所看到的，我們的許多大客戶在消費業務中本身就存在一些數量問題。

Their profitability is effectively being held up by price. And that's great, but it's not great for volumes. And so we would expect that situation to change as we see more promotional activity going forward into the second half and next year as these bigger customers look for market share gains or market share back.

他們的盈利能力實際上受到價格的拖累。這很好，但對於音量來說卻不是很好。因此，我們預計這種情況會發生變化，因為我們看到下半年和明年將有更多的促銷活動，因為這些大客戶正在尋求市場份額的成長或市場份額的恢復。

But with the one or two exceptions, I think in fairness to legacy Westrock, they did a very good job in the cartonboard system in rationalizing their cartonboard operations over a number of years. And I think -- I'm guessing from memory, is about 15 closures that they've made in near 20 closures they've made, including Europe over the last number of years in the cartonboard system. So they have a very good system. And I think that it's a very it potentially is a very good business for us to continue to invest in and grow and that's what we've been doing. Very good systems business, very good business in health and beauty, a very good business in consumer, but obviously somewhat impacted by demand.

但除了一兩個例外，我認為公平地對待傳統的 Westrock，他們在紙板系統方面做得非常好，多年來一直在合理化他們的紙板操作。我認為——我根據記憶猜測，他們已經生產了近 20 種封蓋，其中大約有 15 種是這樣的，包括過去幾年在歐洲的紙板系統中生產的封蓋。所以他們的系統非常好。我認為這對我們來說是一個非常有潛力的業務，值得我們繼續投資和發展，而這正是我們一直在做的事情。系統業務非常好，健康和美容業務非常好，消費者業務非常好，但顯然受到需求的一定影響。

And then when you look around the globe at our business, whether it's in Europe, Mexico, or indeed in Asia. And I think we've got strong market positions with strong businesses that are investable in. So that's where we sit on the consumer business.

然後當你放眼全球看看我們的業務，無論是在歐洲、墨西哥或亞洲。我認為我們擁有強大的市場地位和值得投資的強大業務。這就是我們在消費者業務上的現況。

Okay. Anthony, in terms of integration levels on the containerboard target side, but 90% now after the closure of. And on the side on the consumer side, it's about 60% if we take all grades in .

好的。安東尼，就箱板紙目標方面的整合程度而言，但在關閉之後現在已達到 90%。從消費者的角度來看，如果我們把所有年級都考慮進去，那麼這個比例大約是 60%。。

On corrugated paper .

在瓦楞紙上。

Great. That's very helpful. And then just one really quick follow-up. You mentioned Mexico and I think volumes underperforming consumer there.

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後只需進行非常快速的跟進。您提到了墨西哥，我認為那裡的銷售表現不佳。

Can you just -- I assume that's tariff-related uncertainty. But can you just tell us what your customers are telling you in Mexico and what that volume number was?

你能不能——我認為這是與關稅相關的不確定性。但是您能否告訴我們您的墨西哥客戶告訴了您什麼以及數量是多少？

The Mexican business actually is like the Brazilian business has been relatively -- one or two very large customers have either underperformed due to tariffs or due to changes in habits. And then we've also taken a very strong view on some legacy business of Westrock that has been really, really, really poor business that we have exited. So that's why it's a little bit of our own making in the sense that we've chosen to move -- I give you a good example of one of our factories on the border was supplying a large customer, and we couldn't make any money on it. And it was a plant that was losing $0.5 million a month. And as soon as we exited that customer, it was making $0.5 million a month.

墨西哥業務實際上與巴西業務相對類似——一兩個非常大的客戶要么由於關稅，要么由於習慣的改變而表現不佳。我們也對 Westrock 的一些遺留業務持非常強烈的看法，這些業務真的非常糟糕，我們已經退出了。所以，從某種意義上說，這是我們自己造成的，因為我們選擇了遷移——我給你一個很好的例子，我們在邊境的一家工廠正在為一個大客戶供貨，但我們卻賺不到錢。該工廠每月虧損 50 萬美元。我們一失去這個客戶，它每個月就能賺 50 萬美元。

So it was a big customer, so it was taking up a lot of machine time. And that's the kind of action that we continue to look to take, and that's why the Mexican volumes are so poor. And not like anything we've seen before, we'll get back to growth in Mexico. We've got a fabulous business there, fabulous market position and generally speaking, great people that are really enthusiastic with a strong share in the business.

因為這是一個大客戶，所以它佔用了大量的機器時間。這就是我們繼續尋求採取的行動，這也是為什麼墨西哥的產量如此之低。與我們以前所見的情況不同，墨西哥將恢復成長。我們在那裡擁有出色的業務、極佳的市場地位，而且總體而言，我們的員工非常熱情，在業務中佔有很大的份額。

So I think I'm Absent the tariff issue, I would be incredibly optimistic about our business in Mexico to continue to grow.

因此我認為，如果沒有關稅問題，我對我們在墨西哥的業務繼續成長持非常樂觀的態度。

Okay, and that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thanks very much, Anthony.

非常感謝，安東尼。

We will take our final question and the final question comes from the line of [ Reinhart Wanderwalt ] from Bank of America.

我們將回答最後一個問題，最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 [Reinhart Wanderwalt]。

Morning folks. So thanks for taking my question. Without laboring the point too much on the loss-making contracts, I just wanted to check, the ones that you've cut, are we referring here to EBITDA loss-making contracts? Or are you also looking at this from an EBIT length? I guess what I'm looking for here is, do you have the visibility from from an ERP point of view at the moment to be able to push ROIC optimization?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我不需要過多地強調虧損合同，我只是想確認一下，您削減的那些合同，我們指的是 EBITDA 虧損合同嗎？或者您也是從息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 長度來看待這個問題的？我想我在這裡尋找的是，從 ERP 的角度來看，您是否目前具有推動 ROIC 優化的可見性？

I'll certainly give the second part of that question to Ken. But on the first part, yes, they were EBITDA loss making. I mean, there's no way that you would run the businesses that we have walked away from. There is no way that you would as an independent owner of your business, which is what I go back to that we are asking our management to be independent owner operators responsible for their own P&L responsibilities. And if you have that business as your if it was your own plant, you would not be running it because you're using a valuable machine time to lose money, and that's not a very sensible way to run a business.

我當然會把這個問題的第二部分交給肯。但就第一部分而言，是的，他們的 EBITDA 確實虧損了。我的意思是，你不可能再經營我們已經放棄的業務。作為企業的獨立所有者，您不可能這樣做，這就是我要說的，我們要求我們的管理層作為獨立的所有者經營者，對自己的損益責任負責。如果你把這項業務當作自己的工廠，你就不會經營它，因為你正在利用寶貴的機器時間來虧損，而這不是經營企業的一種非常明智的方式。

So we have exited that kind of business, and we will replace it with it doesn't even have to be a good business. It has to be average business or even poor business and it's better than what we had. Ken?

因此，我們已經退出了這種業務，我們將用甚至不一定是好業務的業務來代替它。這肯定是一般的生意，甚至是糟糕的生意，但總比我們之前的好。肯？

Yeah, we do have we have full visibility on the income statement side now. A lot of heavy work done by the team here and the team in to achieve that in a very short space of time. So full visibility on an individual entity basis across their full P&L, which which really feeds directly into the point Tony is making there around responsibility. You can really only have responsibility or something if you have it to your hand and then can own it.

是的，我們現在確實對損益表有了全面的了解。這裡的團隊和團隊在很短的時間內完成了大量艱苦的工作才實現這一目標。因此，可以全面了解單一實體的全部損益表，這實際上直接體現了 Tony 所提出的有關責任的觀點。只有當你擁有並擁有某樣東西時，你才真正有責任或某種東西。

In terms of the balance sheet, that is the next phase of the exercise. We're currently breaking those balance sheets out first. The segment levels there, clearly, then into the division level of mills, boxbands and indeed, consumer, and then we go beyond that into the entity level as we get there. But we still have a reasonable view, if you like, where ROIC comes out or ROCE comes out simply because we do have the balance sheet of the the segment itself, and we do understand where the capital goes and how we allocate returns associated to not necessarily vital to have it at the plant level, but we'll be at the plant level in a relatively short space of time.

就資產負債表而言，這是工作的下一階段。我們目前首先要將這些資產負債表分解出來。顯然，那裡的細分級別隨後進入工廠、紙箱廠和消費者的分部級別，然後我們超越該級別進入實體級別。但是，如果您願意的話，我們對 ROIC 或 ROCE 的計算結果仍然有一個合理的看法，因為我們確實擁有該部門本身的資產負債表，並且我們確實了解資本的流向以及我們如何分配相關的回報，雖然在工廠層面並不一定至關重要，但我們將在相對較短的時間內達到工廠層面。

Got it. That's very helpful. It sounds like it's going well. And maybe just a second question just on the CapEx outlook. I think, Tony, you've mentioned before that FY26 CapEx is going to depend on the market environment.

知道了。這非常有幫助。聽起來一切進展順利。也許只是關於資本支出前景的第二個問題。東尼，我想你之前提到過，26 財年的資本支出將取決於市場環境。

But just as things are today? Any steer on just directionally how we should think about CapEx into next year?

但就像今天的情況一樣？有沒有什麼指導可以指導我們該如何考慮明年的資本支出？

Not yet, Reinhart. We're as you know, we're developing a strategic plan for the new Smurfit Westrock and we will give full guidance on that in February of next year and probably some earlier guidance on CapEx towards the end of this year. So you have a feel for at least next year's view. Clearly, we see tremendous opportunity for cost reduction and some growth in certain markets. So that's all going to be baked into our thinking as we go forward over the next five years.

還沒有，萊因哈特。如您所知，我們正在為新的 Smurfit Westrock 制定戰略計劃，我們將在明年 2 月就該計劃提供全面指導，並可能在今年年底就資本支出提供一些早期指導。因此您至少可以對明年的前景有所了解。顯然，我們看到某些市場存在降低成本和實現成長的巨大機會。所以，這一切都將融入我們未來五年的思考中。

And as I say, we'll bring that forward. A five-year view in February, and then we'll bring it forward in next for next year, we'll probably give you a bit of steer for next year earlier. But the key for us as a company has always been and will always be to be agile. We're not a company that's going to be doing any grandiose plans of $1 billion CapEx and that sort of stuff in we're in improved mode, development, cost takeout mode, growth mode, but nothing that's going to get us too far ahead of our skis.

正如我所說，我們會提前實現這一點。我們將在二月提出五年展望，然後我們將在明年提出明年的展望，我們可能會提前為明年提供一些指導。但對我們公司而言，關鍵始終是並且永遠保持敏捷。我們並不是一家會制定 10 億美元資本支出之類的宏偉計劃的公司，我們處於改進模式、開發模式、成本削減模式、成長模式，但沒有任何東西可以讓我們領先太多。

Okay, everybody. Thank you for joining the call today. I really appreciate you joining the call. It's I know it's been a busy earnings season for you, and we look forward to continuing to work hard to try and ensure that we get to our stated goals in the years ahead.

好的，各位。感謝您今天參加電話會議。非常感謝您參加此通話。我知道這對你們來說是一個繁忙的盈利季節，我們期待繼續努力工作，以確保在未來幾年實現我們既定的目標。

Thank you all for joining, and have a good morning or good afternoon, wherever you are.

感謝大家的加入，無論您身在何處，祝大家早上或下午愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。