道富銀行 (STT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to State Street Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's discussion is being broadcast live on State Street's website at investors.statestreet.com. This conference call is also being recorded for replay. State Street's conference call is copyrighted and all rights are reserved. This call may not be recorded for rebroadcast or distribution in whole or in part without the expressed written authorization from State Street Corporation. The only authorized broadcast of this call will be held on the State Street website.

早安，歡迎參加道富公司 2023 年第四季和全年收益電話會議和網路廣播。今天的討論將在道富銀行網站 Investors.statestreet.com 上進行現場直播。這次電話會議也被錄音以供重播。道富銀行的電話會議受版權保護，並保留所有權利。未經道富公司明確書面授權，不得對本次通話進行全部或部分錄音或轉播或散佈。本次電話會議的唯一授權廣播將在道富銀行網站上進行。

Now I would like to introduce Ilene Fiszel Bieler, Global Head of Investor Relations at State Street.

現在我想介紹道富銀行投資者關係全球主管艾琳‧菲澤爾‧比勒(Ilene Fiszel Bieler)。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. On our call today, our CEO, Ron O'Hanley, will speak first. Then Eric Aboaf, our CFO, will take you through our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings slide presentation, which is available for download in the Investor Relations section of our website, investors.statestreet.com. Afterwards, we'll be happy to take questions. (Operator Instructions) Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation will include results presented on a basis that excludes or adjusts one or more items from GAAP.

早安，感謝大家加入我們。在今天的電話會議上，我們的執行長 Ron O'Hanley 將首先發言。然後，我們的財務長 Eric Aboaf 將向您介紹我們的2023 年第四季度和全年收益幻燈片演示文稿，該幻燈片演示文稿可在我們網站Investorstreet.com 的投資人關係部分下載。之後，我們將很樂意回答問題。 （操作員說明）在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的演示將包括在排除或調整 GAAP 中的一項或多項項目的基礎上呈現的結果。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP or regulatory measure are available in the appendix to our slide presentation, also available in the IR section of our website.

這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 或監管衡量標準的調整可在我們投影片簡報的附錄中找到，也可以在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

In addition, today's presentation will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those statements due to a variety of important factors, such as those factors referenced in our discussion today and in our SEC filings, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K.

此外，今天的演示將包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素，例如我們今天的討論和 SEC 文件中提到的因素，包括我們 10-K 表格中的風險因素，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them even if our views change. Now let me turn it over to Ron.

我們的前瞻性聲明僅代表今天的情況，即使我們的觀點發生變化，我們也不承擔任何更新這些聲明的義務。現在讓我把它交給榮恩。

Thank you, Ilene, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. As I reflect on 2023, the operating environment was dynamic with a complex set of challenges for the world's investors and for our industry, and I'm proud of how we carefully navigated State Street for various headwinds while continuing to execute against our strategic agenda.

謝謝艾琳，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第四季和全年財務業績。當我回顧2023 年時，營運環境充滿活力，世界投資者和我們的行業面臨一系列複雜的挑戰，我為我們在繼續執行我們的戰略議程的同時小心翼翼地駕馭道富銀行應對各種不利因素而感到自豪。

We focused and delivered on that agenda in 3 key areas: achieved strong sales wins across our businesses, drive strategic change in our Investment Services business, and remained disciplined on productivity and broader cost management. Further on that last point, during 2023, we implemented key productivity actions and announced additional efficiency measures that will enable us to enhance the productivity of our operating model in 2024 and the years ahead.

我們在 3 個關鍵領域重點關注並實現了這項議程：在我們的業務中取得強勁的銷售勝利，推動投資服務業務的策略變革，並在生產力和更廣泛的成本管理方面保持嚴格的紀律。最後一點，在 2023 年期間，我們實施了關鍵的生產力行動並宣布了額外的效率措施，這將使我們能夠在 2024 年及未來幾年提高營運模式的生產力。

We took these many actions, all while investing in our business and returning substantial capital to our shareholders, which helped to drive full year earnings growth, excluding notable items. The world's investors, State Street and our industry faced a host of significant market events and macroeconomic forces in 2023.

我們採取了許多行動，同時投資我們的業務並向股東返還大量資本，這有助於推動全年獲利成長（不包括值得注意的項目）。 2023 年，全球投資者、道富銀行和我們的產業將面臨一系列重大市場事件和宏觀經濟力量。

In the first quarter, turmoil in the banking sector ultimately led to the resolution of several banks, which was a catalyst for some of the largest fixed income market move seen in decades.

第一季度，銀行業的動盪最終導致多家銀行被解散，這成為數十年來固定收益市場最大規模走勢的催化劑。

In the second quarter, anticipation grew about the potential economic benefit from artificial intelligence, helping to drive equity markets higher. However, as we progressed into the third quarter as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to the highest level in 22 years in July, the prospect of higher for longer rates led to a substantial selloff in bond markets with the U.S. 10-year treasury yield exceeding 5% in October for the first time since the global financial crisis.

第二季度，人們對人工智慧潛在經濟利益的預期有所增長，有助於推動股市走高。然而，隨著聯準會7月將利率提高至22年來的最高水平，進入第三季度，長期利率上升的前景導致債券市場大幅拋售，美國10年期公債殖利率超過10 月成長5%，為全球金融危機以來首次。

Rate uncertainty and an increasing number of geopolitical concerns cause equities to struggle. Then during the fourth quarter, the equity market rallied vigorously as inflation receded and investors grew increasingly optimistic about a soft landing with positive sentiment gaining further momentum in the last month as the Federal Reserve signaled pivot to lower interest rates this year.

利率不確定性和越來越多的地緣政治擔憂導致股市陷入困境。然後在第四季度，隨著通膨回落，投資人對軟著陸越來越樂觀，隨著聯準會暗示今年將轉向降低利率，上個月積極情緒進一步增強，股市強勁反彈。

In sum, while our full year overall financial results benefited from higher interest rates globally last year and despite the strong market appreciation in the fourth quarter, daily average global equity markets only increased by low single digits in 2023, providing just a modest tailwind to our fee revenue, while client activity was muted as investors stayed on the sidelines for much of the year. And even in such an eventful year, equity and FX market volatility continued to contract, creating revenue headwinds for our trading businesses.

總而言之，雖然我們的全年整體財務業績受益於去年全球利率的上升，並且儘管第四季度市場強勁升值，但2023 年全球股市日均僅增長了較低的個位數，這僅為我們的業績提供了適度的推動力。費用收入，而由於投資者在今年的大部分時間裡保持觀望，客戶活動冷淡。即使在如此多事的一年中，股票和外匯市場的波動性仍然持續收縮，為我們的交易業務帶來了收入阻力。

Slide 3 of our investor presentation provides some of our highlights for the year. Beginning with our financial performance, full year earnings per share was $5.58 or $7.66 excluding notable items. Year-over-year, excluding notable items, EPS growth was supported by $3.8 billion of common share repurchases, a record level of NII, continued growth of our front office software and data business, and higher securities finance revenues, the combination of which more than offset the impact of lower servicing and management fees and underlying expense growth, which was still well controlled.

我們的投資者簡報的幻燈片 3 介紹了我們今年的一些亮點。從我們的財務表現開始，全年每股收益為 5.58 美元或 7.66 美元（不包括值得注意的項目）。與去年同期相比，排除值得注意的項目，每股收益的增長得益於38 億美元的普通股回購、創紀錄的NII 水平、我們前台軟體和數據業務的持續增長以及更高的證券金融收入，這些因素相結合這抵消了服務和管理費下降以及基本費用增長的影響，但基本費用增長仍然受到良好控制。

We continue to build business momentum and position State Street in longer term success. To that end, we achieved a number of important accomplishments in 2023, as you can see on Slide 3. A key highlight of today's results is the clear progress we are making on innovation and advancing product capabilities, which in turn contributes to stronger sales momentum across our broad franchise aimed at generating better fee revenue growth in the year ahead.

我們持續增強業務動力，使道富銀行長期成功。為此，我們在 2023 年取得了許多重要成就，如幻燈片 3 所示。今天成果的一個主要亮點是我們在創新和提升產品能力方面取得的明顯進展，這反過來又有助於增強銷售勢頭我們廣泛的特許經營權旨在未來一年實現更好的費用收入成長。

Within the Investment Services business, we are intensely focused on ensuring better execution against our strategy and revenue goals. We unveiled the sharpened execution plan last year, underpinned by a number of measurable actions aimed at driving servicing opportunities across key regions and product areas, realizing the full potential of our Alpha value proposition and accelerating sales and revenue growth particularly in our core back-office custody.

在投資服務業務中，我們高度重視確保更好地執行我們的策略和收入目標。我們去年宣布了強化的執行計劃，以一系列可衡量的行動為基礎，旨在推動關鍵地區和產品領域的服務機會，充分發揮我們Alpha 價值主張的潛力，並加速銷售和收入成長，特別是在我們的核心後台部門保管。

Encouragingly, as I just noted, today's results demonstrate our proven ability to deliver the level of sales required for attractive organic servicing fee revenue growth in the future as we built upon the $91 million of new servicing fee sales in the third quarter by recording $103 million of new servicing fee wins in 4Q, which is the highest level of quarterly new servicing fees in recent years.

令人鼓舞的是，正如我剛才指出的，今天的業績證明我們有能力提供未來具有吸引力的有機服務費收入增長所需的銷售水平，因為我們在第三季度新服務費銷售額9100 萬美元的基礎上實現了1.03 億美元的成長4季新增服務費勝出，為近年來季度新增服務費最高水準。

From its inception, we have noted that Alpha will further establish broaden and deepen client relationships, positioning State Street as our clients' essential partner. Alpha distinctively enables us to grow and tie together the full breadth and depth of State Street's capability as a true one State Street solution for our clients from front to back. 2023 was an important year for Alpha software delivery. The last 2 quarters of the year included the significant development of the fixed income portfolio management module, which propels CRD and Alpha capabilities and competitiveness forward.

從成立之初，我們注意到Alpha將進一步建立更廣泛和深化的客戶關係，將道富銀行定位為客戶的重要合作夥伴。 Alpha 的獨特之處在於，我們能夠將道富銀行能力的全面廣度和深度整合在一起，從前到後為我們的客戶提供真正的單一道富銀行解決方案。 2023年是Alpha軟體交付的重要一年。今年最後兩個季度，固定收益投資組合管理模組取得了重大發展，推動了 CRD 和 Alpha 的能力和競爭力向前發展。

In 3Q, we recorded our first Alpha for private markets client. And in the fourth quarter, we continued Alpha's momentum by deepening relationships with a number of key existing mandates and recording 4 new Alpha wins, while our front office software and data business had a record quarter of new bookings in 4Q, both demonstrating our ability to drive stronger sales.

在第三季度，我們為私募市場客戶記錄了第一個 Alpha 版本。在第四季度，我們透過深化與許多關鍵現有任務的關係並記錄了4 個新的Alpha 勝利，延續了Alpha 的勢頭，而我們的前台軟體和數據業務在第四季度的新預訂量創下了季度紀錄，這都證明了我們有能力推動更強勁的銷售。

Within our Global Markets business, even as low volatility created a headwind, we continue to see proof points of our very strong market position. For example, in its 2023 FX awards, Euromoney Magazine named State Street as the winner across 4 important categories, including the best FX bank for real money clients. We also continued to innovate and strategically expand our product capabilities and geographic reach including the planned acquisition of outsourced trading from CF Global Trading.

在我們的全球市場業務中，儘管低波動性帶來了阻力，但我們仍然看到了我們非常強大的市場地位的證據。例如，在《歐洲貨幣》雜誌 2023 年外匯大獎中，道富銀行被評為 4 個重要類別的獲獎者，其中包括最適合真實貨幣客戶的外匯銀行。我們也持續創新並策略性地擴展我們的產品能力和地理覆蓋範圍，包括計劃從 CF Global Trading 收購外包交易。

At Global Advisors, we undertook targeted strategic actions aimed at gaining market share and driving growth in the coming years. As a result, we saw encouraging business momentum with GA setting a number of growth records in 2023. A number of key performance indicators make us optimistic as we look ahead. For example, in Q4, GA recorded the best ever quarter of aggregate total flows, including record quarterly flows within our SPDR ETF franchise, amounting to a capture of 21% of total global ETF flows in Q4 and ending 2023 with a record level of total ETF assets under management.

在 Global Advisors，我們採取了有針對性的策略行動，旨在贏得市場份額並推動未來幾年的成長。因此，我們看到了令人鼓舞的業務勢頭，GA 在 2023 年創下了多項成長記錄。一些關鍵績效指標讓我們對未來感到樂觀。例如，在第四季度，GA 錄得有史以來最好的季度總流量，包括我們的SPDR ETF 特許經營權內創紀錄的季度流量，相當於第四季度全球ETF 總流量的21%，並在2023年結束時達到創紀錄的總流量水準管理的ETF資產。

Our cash business had an exceptional year, delivering record annual flows in 2023 with institutional money market fund AUM also reaching a record. Overall, we gained market share in a number of key areas, including institutional money market funds and U.S. low-cost equity and fixed income, ETFs.

我們的現金業務經歷了非凡的一年，2023 年的年度流量創下了歷史新高，機構貨幣市場基金的資產管理規模也創下了歷史新高。總體而言，我們在多個關鍵領域獲得了市場份額，包括機構貨幣市場基金以及美國低成本股票和固定收益 ETF。

Turning to our efficiency and productivity efforts underlying expense growth was well controlled in 2023 with full year expenses increasing 3%, excluding notable items. Q4 expenses, excluding notable items, rose just 1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the impact of our ongoing expense actions. Transforming our operations to improve effectiveness and efficiency and realized productivity growth remains a key priority for us. To that end, we announced important steps in our multiyear productivity efforts aimed at improving our operating model.

談到我們在效率和生產力方面所做的努力，2023 年費用成長得到了很好的控制，全年費用增加了 3%（不包括值得注意的項目）。第四季支出（不包括重要項目）較上季僅成長 1%，反映了我們持續支出行動的影響。轉變我們的營運方式以提高有效性和效率並實現生產力成長仍然是我們的首要任務。為此，我們宣布了多年來旨在改進營運模式的生產力努力的重要步驟。

As we previously announced, we are streamlining our operations in India. We have now assumed control of of our joint ventures in that country with a second joint venture consolidation expected to close in the spring. We expect these actions will accelerate the transformation of State Street's global operations, improve service quality and client experience and enable us to achieve productivity savings as part of our plans to deliver positive fee operating leverage in 2024.

正如我們之前宣布的，我們正在精簡我們在印度的業務。我們現在已經控制了在該國的合資企業，第二家合資企業合併預計將於春季結束。我們預計這些行動將加速道富銀行全球營運的轉型，提高服務品質和客戶體驗，並使我們能夠實現生產力節省，作為我們在 2024 年實現正費用營運槓桿計劃的一部分。

Turning to Slide 4 of our presentation, you can see our fourth quarter financial highlights and business momentum indicators, which Eric will shortly take you through in more detail. Before I conclude my opening remarks, I would like to touch on our continuing balance sheet strength, which has enabled us to return a substantial amount of excess capital in recent quarters. For example, over the last 5 quarters to the end of December, we have returned $6.4 billion of capital to our shareholders.

轉向我們簡報的投影片 4，您可以看到我們第四季的財務亮點和業務動能指標，Eric 很快就會向您詳細介紹這些指標。在結束我的開場白之前，我想談談我們持續的資產負債表實力，這使我們能夠在最近幾季返還大量過剩資本。例如，在截至 12 月底的過去 5 個季度中，我們已向股東返還 64 億美元的資本。

As we pivot to a more normalized level of capital return, in 2024, it is currently our intention to return approximately 100% of earnings in the form of common share dividends and share repurchases, subject to market conditions.

隨著我們轉向更規範的資本回報水平，我們目前打算根據市場條件，以普通股股息和股票回購的形式回報約 100% 的收益。

Accordingly, as we announced this morning, our Board of Directors has authorized a new common share purchase program of up to $5 billion with no set expiration date.

因此，正如我們今天早上宣布的那樣，我們的董事會已批准一項高達 50 億美元的新普通股購買計劃，且沒有設定到期日。

To conclude, while 2023 was an eventful year, we finished strongly in 4Q, which creates an encouraging starting point for our businesses into 2024. This year we remained highly focused on both the execution of our strategy and the accountability for results. Our goals are clear. We must continue the improvement in our sales performance that we demonstrated in the second half of 2023, and continue to implement a set of productivity initiatives and product enhancements that will drive longer-term improvements in our operating model efficiency and effectiveness and deliver positive fee operating leverage in 2024, all while returning capital to our shareholders. We are laser-focused on these goals.

總而言之，雖然2023 年是不平凡的一年，但我們在第四季度取得了強勁的業績，這為我們進入2024 年的業務創造了一個令人鼓舞的起點。今年，我們仍然高度關注戰略的執行和結果問責。我們的目標很明確。我們必須繼續改善我們在 2023 年下半年展示的銷售業績，並繼續實施一系列生產力計劃和產品增強，這將推動我們營運模式效率和有效性的長期改進，並實現積極的費用營運2024 年槓桿化，同時向股東返還資本。我們全神貫注於這些目標。

Now let me hand the call over to Eric, who will take you through the quarter in more detail.

現在讓我將電話轉交給艾瑞克，他將帶您更詳細地了解本季。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my review of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, let me briefly discuss the notable items we recognized in the quarter on Slide 5, which collectively totaled $620 million pretax or $1.49 of EPS.

謝謝你，羅恩，大家早安。在開始回顧2023 年第四季和全年業績之前，讓我簡要討論一下幻燈片5 中我們在本季度確認的值得注意的項目，這些項目的稅前總額為6.2 億美元，每股收益為1.49美元。

First, we recognized an FDIC special assessment of $387 million, which is reflected in other expenses. Second, we recognized $203 million of net repositioning charges to enable the next phase of our productivity program. As we had indicated in December, the bulk of this action primarily relates to the severance of around 1,500 employees. Our initiative to streamline and delayer our operations, technology and staff functions and improve efficiency will allow us to sustainably reduce expenses.

首先，我們確認了 FDIC 特別評估 3.87 億美元，這反映在其他費用中。其次，我們確認了 2.03 億美元的淨重新定位費用，以支持下一階段的生產力計畫。正如我們在 12 月指出的那樣，這項行動的大部分主要涉及約 1,500 名員工的遣散費。我們精簡和推遲營運、技術和員工職能並提高效率的措施將使我們能夠持續減少開支。

We expect these actions collectively to have a payback of roughly 6 quarters and begin this quarter with roughly 2/3 of the benefit occurring in 2024. These actions and the related savings will contribute to our fee operating leverage goal for 2024 and in subsequent years.

我們預計這些行動總共將有大約6 個季度的回報，並從本季開始，到2024 年將產生約2/3 的收益。這些行動和相關的節省將有助於實現我們2024 年及隨後幾年的費用營運槓桿目標。

Turning to Slide 6. I will begin my review both our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. As you can see on the table, total fee revenue was flattish for all periods of comparison quarter-on-quarter, the year-on-year quarter and for the full year. The slight market appreciation notwithstanding the combination of muted volatility, central bank pivots and geopolitical concerns pushed investors to the sidelines for much of the year.

轉向投影片 6。我將開始回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年的財務表現。正如您在表格中看到的，所有比較期間的季度環比、同比季度和全年的總費用收入均持平。儘管波動性溫和、央行轉向以及地緣政治擔憂等因素綜合作用，但市場仍小幅升值，導致投資者在今年大部分時間保持觀望。

In terms of our more durable revenues, we continue to benefit from strong momentum in our front office software and data business, which was up 5% on a full year basis and 13% on the year-on-year quarter. In terms of areas that have begun to rebound, management fee performance was down for the full year at minus 3%, but has begun to rebound with an up 5% result for the year-on-year quarter as flows picked up, and we gained share.

就我們更持久的收入而言，我們繼續受益於前台軟體和數據業務的強勁勢頭，全年增長 5%，環比增長 13%。就已經開始反彈的領域而言，管理費業績全年下降了-3%，但隨著流量回升，管理費業績開始反彈，同比增長了5%，我們獲得了份額。

Back-office servicing fees was challenged for much for the year as the client transactional activity was muted, but has started to turn positive and is up 1% this quarter as we've seen a recent lift in equity markets. And of course, we continue to be affected by industry-wide headwinds in our Global Markets businesses given the low levels of volatility in the FX markets and special activity in agency lending throughout the year.

由於客戶交易活動平淡，後台服務費在今年大部分時間都受到挑戰，但隨著我們最近股市的上漲，後台服務費已開始轉正，本季上漲 1%。當然，鑑於全年外匯市場波動性較低以及機構貸款的特殊活動，我們的全球市場業務繼續受到全行業不利因素的影響。

NII has been tough to predict and surprised to the positive this quarter compared to third quarter. I'll turn to that in a few minutes. Expenses were well controlled in the quarter as we continue to thoughtfully allocate resources across the franchise and to areas where we see the greatest opportunities for top line growth.

與第三季相比，NII 很難預測，本季的正面結果令人驚訝。幾分鐘後我會談到這一點。本季的費用得到了很好的控制，因為我們繼續在整個特許經營權和我們認為收入成長機會最大的領域深思熟慮地分配資源。

Relative to a year ago, total expenses ex notables were up 2% year-on-year and reflect intensifying cost management in a tough environment as the year progressed. This expense control, coupled with the repositioning actions I just mentioned, prepare us to deliver productivity savings and positive fee operating leverage in 2024.

與去年同期相比，扣除知名人士的總費用年增 2%，反映出隨著這一年的進展，在嚴峻的環境下加強了成本管理。這種費用控制，加上我剛才提到的重新定位行動，使我們能夠在 2024 年實現生產力節約和積極的費用營運槓桿。

Finally, despite a dynamic and challenging operating environment, we delivered full year 2023 EPS growth of 3%, excluding notable items. This was supported by share repurchases, a record level of NII and the growth of our front office software and data business, which is less exposed to macroeconomic conditions.

最後，儘管經營環境充滿活力且充滿挑戰，但不包括值得注意的項目，我們 2023 年全年每股收益成長了 3%。這得益於股票回購、創紀錄的NII水平以及我們受宏觀經濟條件影響較小的前台軟體和數據業務的成長。

Turning now to Slide 7. We saw period-end AUC/A increased by 14% on a year-on-year basis and 4% sequentially. Year-on-year, the increase in AUC/A was largely driven by higher period end market levels and net new business. Quarter-on-quarter AUC/A increased primarily due to higher period end market levels. At Global Advisors, period-end AUM increased 19% year-on-year and was up 12% sequentially, largely reflecting higher period end market levels and strong net inflows.

現在轉向投影片 7。我們看到期末 AUC/A 年比成長 14%，環比成長 4%。與去年同期相比，AUC/A 的成長主要是由較高的期末市場水準和淨新業務所推動的。 AUC/A 季度環比成長主要是由於期末市場水準較高。 Global Advisors 的期末資產管理規模年增 19%，環比成長 12%，主要反映了期末市場水準的提高和強勁的淨流入。

Notably, as Ron mentioned earlier, and I'll describe momentarily, in fourth quarter, GA recorded the best ever quarter of aggregate net flows of $103 billion, which sets us up well for 2024. At the center right, we've also added a table with market volatility indices, which we believe can be useful indicators of plying transactional activity that drives servicing fees, specials activity and agency lending and flows and margins in FX trading.

值得注意的是，正如羅恩之前提到的，我將立即描述，在第四季度，GA 錄得有史以來最好的季度總淨流量1030 億美元，這為我們2024 年奠定了良好的基礎。在中右，我們還添加了包含市場波動指數的表格，我們認為該表格可以作為推動服務費、特殊活動和機構貸款以及外匯交易中的流量和利潤的交易活動的有用指標。

On Slide 8 now. On the left side of the page, you'll see fourth quarter total servicing fees up 1% year-on-year, primarily from higher average equity markets, partially offset by pricing headwinds, lower client activity and adjustments in a previously disclosed client transition. Sequentially, total servicing fees were down 2%, primarily as a result of the pricing headwinds and a previously disclosed net client transition partially offset by higher client activity and adjustments, which was nice to see as clients started to come off the sidelines.

現在在投影片 8 上。在頁面左側，您會看到第四季度總服務費年增 1%，主要來自平均股票市場的上漲，但部分被定價逆風、客戶活動減少以及先前披露的客戶轉型調整所抵消。隨後，總服務費下降了 2%，主要是由於定價逆風和先前披露的淨客戶轉變被較高的客戶活動和調整部分抵消，這是很高興看到的，因為客戶開始不再觀望。

On the bottom left of the slide, we summarize some of the key performance indicators of our servicing business. We were quite pleased to see new servicing fee revenue wins of $103 million this quarter, the highest in many recent years, primarily reflecting the enhancements of our sales processes and product offerings, including in North America, where we saw strong outcomes after a period of underperformance. These servicing wins contributed to the total full year fee revenue wins of $301 million and underscores the progress we're making towards stronger sales performance. Recall, our goal for 2024 is even higher at $350 million to $400 million in servicing fee sales for the year.

在投影片的左下角，我們總結了我們服務業務的一些關鍵績效指標。我們很高興看到本季新增服務費收入1.03 億美元，這是近年來的最高水平，主要反映了我們銷售流程和產品供應的增強，包括在北美，經過一段時間的努力，我們在北美看到了強勁的成果。表現不佳。這些服務收入為全年費用收入總額貢獻了 3.01 億美元，並突顯了我們在實現更強勁銷售業績方面所取得的進展。回想一下，我們 2024 年的目標甚至更高，全年服務費銷售額達到 3.5 億至 4 億美元。

Finally, we had $270 million of servicing fee revenue to be installed at quarter end, up $57 million year-on-year and $15 million quarter-on-quarter. We expect about half of this to install in 2024. We also had $2.3 trillion of AUC/A to be installed at period end.

最後，我們在季度末有 2.7 億美元的服務費收入，年增 5,700 萬美元，季增 1,500 萬美元。我們預計其中約一半將在 2024 年安裝。我們在期末還將安裝 2.3 兆美元的 AUC/A。

Turning to Slide 9. Fourth quarter management fees were $479 million, up 5% year-on-year, primarily reflecting higher average equity market levels and some performance fees partially offset by a previously described shift of certain management fees into NII and the impact of a strategic product suite repricing initiative that has aided ETF flows.

轉向投影片 9。第四季管理費為 4.79 億美元，年增 5%，主要反映平均股市水準較高，部分績效費被先前描述的某些管理費轉入 NII 的影響部分抵銷。一項有助於ETF 流動的策略性產品套件重新定價計畫。

Relative to the third quarter, management fees were flat, mainly driven by higher performance fees, offset by a previously described shift of certain management fees into NII and the impact of the strategic ETF product suite repricing initiative.

與第三季相比，管理費持平，主要是由於績效費上漲，但被先前描述的某些管理費轉向 NII 以及策略 ETF 產品套件重新定價計畫的影響所抵消。

As you can see on the bottom right of the slide, our investment management franchise remains well positioned with very strong and broad-based business momentum across each of its businesses. In ETFs, we had record quarterly net inflows of $68 billion, driven by record net inflows into SPY as well as the SPDR portfolio U.S. low-cost suite, experiencing consistent market share gains. In our Institutional business, we saw quarterly net flows of $6 billion, primarily driven by defined contribution products.

正如您在幻燈片右下角所看到的，我們的投資管理業務仍然處於有利地位，每項業務都擁有非常強勁和廣泛的業務勢頭。在 ETF 方面，受 SPY 和 SPDR 投資組合美國低成本套件創紀錄淨流入的推動，我們的季度淨流入達到創紀錄的 680 億美元，市場份額持續增長。在我們的機構業務中，我們看到季度淨流量為 60 億美元，主要由固定繳款產品推動。

And lastly, across our cash franchise, we saw quarterly cash net inflows of $29 billion primarily into money market funds, which contributed to the record total full year 2023 cash net inflows of $76 billion, and institutional money market fund market share gains.

最後，在我們的現金業務中，我們看到季度現金淨流入290 億美元，主要流入貨幣市場基金，這促成了2023 年全年現金淨流入總額達到創紀錄的760 億美元，機構貨幣市場基金市場份額也有所增加。

Turning now to Slide 10. Fourth quarter FX Trading Services revenue was down 11% year-on-year ex notables and 2% sequentially, relative to the period a year ago, the decrease was mainly due to lower FX spreads from muted market volatility, offset by slightly higher volumes. Quarter-on-quarter, the decrease primarily reflects lower direct FX revenues from muted volatility.

現在轉向投影片 10。與去年同期相比，第四季外匯交易服務收入年減 11%，環比下降 2%，下降的主要原因是市場波動平緩導致外匯利差下降，被略高的成交量所抵消。環比下降主要反映了波動性減弱導致的直接外匯收入下降。

Fourth quarter securities finance revenues were down 6% year-on-year due to lower agency balances, partially offset by higher agency spreads, higher specials activity and prime services revenue. Moving on to Software and Processing revenues. Fourth quarter fees were up 10% year-on-year and 26% sequentially, largely driven by CRD, which I'll turn to shortly.

由於代理餘額減少，第四季證券金融收入年減 6%，但部分被代理利差增加、特殊活動和主要服務收入增加所抵銷。接下來是軟體和處理收入。第四季的費用年增 10%，環比增長 26%，這主要是由 CRD 推動的，我很快就會談到這一點。

Finally, other fee revenue for the quarter increased $15 million year-on-year, primarily due to a midyear tax credit investment accounting change, partially offset by the impacts associated with the devaluation of the Argentinian peso.

最後，本季的其他費用收入年增 1500 萬美元，主要是由於年中稅收抵免投資會計的變化，部分被阿根廷比索貶值的影響所抵消。

Moving to Slide 11. You'll see on the left panel that fourth quarter Front Office Software and Data revenue increased 13% year-on-year, primarily as a result of the continued SaaS implementations and conversions driving software-enabled and professional services revenue growth. Sequentially, Front Office Software and Data revenue was up 38%, primarily driven by higher on-premise renewals and go-live implementations.

前往投影片 11。您將在左側面板中看到，第四季度前台軟體和數據收入同比增長 13%，這主要是由於持續的 SaaS 實施和轉換推動了軟體支援和專業服務收入生長。隨後，前台軟體和資料收入成長了 38%，這主要是由於內部續約和上線實施的增加所致。

Turning to some of the Alpha business metrics on the right panel. We were pleased to report 4 more Alpha mandate wins in the quarter, which means 7 wins for the full year 2023. State Street Alpha continues to be an important differentiator of our business and creates an attractive value proposition for our clients with contractual terms usually covering 5 to 7 to 10 years.

轉向右側面板上的一些 Alpha 業務指標。我們很高興地報告本季又贏得了4 項Alpha 授權，這意味著2023 年全年贏得了7 項。道富Alpha 仍然是我們業務的重要差異化因素，並為我們的客戶創造了有吸引力的價值主張，合約條款通常涵蓋5年到7年到10年。

We've also gone live with 3 more Alpha clients, which brings us to 6 for the year, which sets us up well for 2024 and added significant new functionality for fixed income portfolio managers. Fourth quarter ARR increased 16% year-over-year driven by 20-plus SaaS client implementations and conversions and we had a record quarter for front office new bookings at $32 million.

我們還與另外 3 個 Alpha 客戶一起上線，這使我們今年的客戶數量達到 6 個，這為我們為 2024 年奠定了良好的基礎，並為固定收益投資組合經理增加了重要的新功能。在 20 多個 SaaS 用戶端實施和轉換的推動下，第四季度 ARR 年增 16%，我們的前台新訂單季度創紀錄地達到 3,200 萬美元。

Turning to Slide 12. Fourth quarter NII increased 14% year-on-year but increased 9% sequentially to $678 million. The year-on-year decrease was largely due to lower average deposit balances and deposit mix shift, partially offset by the impact of higher interest rates. Sequentially, the increase in NII performance was primarily driven by the impact of interest rates and the full quarter impact of the third quarter investment portfolio repositioning as well as higher deposits and loan balances.

轉向投影片 12。第四季 NII 年成長 14%，季增 9%，達到 6.78 億美元。年比下降主要是由於平均存款餘額下降和存款結構轉變，但部分被利率上升的影響所抵消。其次，NII 表現的成長主要是受到利率影響、第三季投資組合重新定位的全季影響以及存款和貸款餘額增加的推動。

The NII results on a sequential quarter basis were better than we had previously expected as both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits increased and certain client repricings were further delayed. Some of the higher deposit balances may have been seasonal, but the Fed's quantitative tightening appears to have been offset by the reduction of the Fed reverse repo operation, which seems to have resulted in inclines having higher bank deposit balances.

由於計息和無息存款增加以及某些客戶重新定價進一步延遲，國家資訊基礎設施環比結果好於我們先前的預期。一些較高的存款餘額可能是季節性的，但聯準會的量化緊縮似乎已被聯準會逆回購操作的減少所抵消，這似乎導致銀行存款餘額上升。

It's hard to know how deposits will trend, but we're pleased with this higher step off going into the first quarter of 2024. On the right side of the slide, we show our average balance sheet during the fourth quarter. Average deposits increased 4% quarter-on-quarter with noninterest-bearing deposits up 3% for the quarter.

很難知道存款的趨勢如何，但我們對進入 2024 年第一季的這一更高的步伐感到高興。在幻燈片的右側，我們顯示了第四季度的平均資產負債表。本季平均存款較上季成長 4%，無息存款成長 3%。

Turning to Slide 13. Fourth quarter expenses, excluding notable items, increased 2% year-on-year or 1% ex FX. Sequentially, fourth quarter expenses were up only 1% as we actively managed expenses and continued our productivity and optimization savings efforts, all while carefully investing in strategic elements of the company, including Alpha, private markets, core custody and tech and ops process improvements in automation.

轉向投影片 13。第四季支出（不包括顯著項目）年增 2%，扣除外匯成本成長 1%。隨後，第四季費用僅增加了 1%，因為我們積極管理費用並持續提高生產力和優化節約工作，同時仔細投資於公司的策略要素，包括 Alpha、私人市場、核心託管以及技術和營運流程改善。自動化。

On a line-by-line basis and year-over-year ex notables, compensation and employee benefits increased 1%, primarily driven by higher salaries and employee benefits, partially offset by lower contractor spend in performance-based incentive comp. Information systems and communications expenses increased 4% mainly due to higher technology and infrastructure investments, partially offset by the benefits from ongoing optimization efforts in sourcing and vendor credits.

以逐行計算，與去年同期相比，薪資和員工福利增加了 1%，這主要是由於薪資和員工福利增加，但部分被承包商在基於績效的激勵薪資方面的支出減少所抵消。資訊系統和通訊支出增加了 4%，主要是由於技術和基礎設施投資增加，但部分被採購和供應商信貸持續優化工作帶來的收益所抵消。

Transaction processing increased 1%, mainly reflecting higher brokerage costs. Occupancy increased 24%, largely due to the absence of an episodic sale-leaseback transaction in the prior period. And other expenses were up 3% sequentially, flat year-on-year, mainly reflecting higher marketing expense and professional fees.

交易處理量增加1%，主要反映經紀成本上升。入住率增加了 24%，主要是因為前期沒有發生間歇性售後回租交易。其他費用較上季成長 3%，與去年同期持平，主要反映行銷費用和專業費用增加。

Lastly, let me spend a moment on headcount. As we discussed in the third quarter, as part of our ongoing transformation and productivity initiatives, we've streamlined our operating model in India and have now assumed full ownership of one of our operations, joint ventures and we recently announced that we intend a similar undertaking with a second consolidation in the country this spring.

最後，讓我花一點時間來統計一下人數。正如我們在第三季度討論的那樣，作為我們正在進行的轉型和生產力計劃的一部分，我們簡化了在印度的運營模式，現在已經完全擁有我們的一家業務合資企業，並且我們最近宣布我們打算開展類似的業務今年春天將在該國進行第二次整合。

This consolidation continues the transformation of State Street's global operations and will enable us to unlock productivity savings, which we expect to start this quarter through a reduction in contract services and in the years ahead, as we simplify our fragmented operating model. As you would expect, consolidating the first joint venture increased our FTE headcount roughly 4,400 in the quarter as we in-source global capabilities. However, these costs were already in our expense base and reported historically under the comp and benefits line.

此次整合將繼續推動道富銀行全球業務的轉型，並使我們能夠節省生產力，我們預計將在本季度透過減少合約服務開始實現這一目標，並在未來幾年內簡化我們分散的營運模式。如您所料，隨著我們內購全球能力，合併第一家合資企業使我們的 FTE 員工人數在本季度增加了約 4,400 人。然而，這些成本已經在我們的費用基礎中，並且歷史上在薪酬和福利項目下報告。

These actions are contributing to our higher productivity savings targets for 2024.

這些行動有助於實現 2024 年更高的生產力節約目標。

Moving to Slide 14. On the left side of the slide, we show the evolution of our CET1 and Tier 1 leverage ratios followed by our capital trends on the right of the slide. As you can see, we continue to navigate the operating environment with very strong capital levels, which came in above both our internal targets and the regulatory minimums. As of quarter end, our standardized CET1 ratio of 11.6% was up 60 basis points quarter-on-quarter, largely driven by episodically lower RWA and improvement in AOCI, partially offset by the continuation of common share repurchases.

轉到投影片 14。在投影片左側，我們展示了 CET1 和一級槓桿率的演變，以及投影片右側的資本趨勢。正如您所看到的，我們繼續以非常強勁的資本水準駕馭營運環境，這超出了我們的內部目標和最低監管要求。截至季末，我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 11.6%，環比上升 60 個基點，這主要是由於 RWA 的間歇性下降和 AOCI 的改善，部分被持續的普通股回購所抵消。

The decrease in interest rates during December after the completion of our buyback contributed about 20 basis points to our CET1 ratios and some market factors over the last week of December conveniently contributed roughly another 50 basis points to the RWA end-of-period print.

回購完成後，12 月利率下降，使我們的 CET1 比率下降了約 20 個基點，而 12 月最後一周的一些市場因素又方便地使 RWA 期末數據又上升了約 50 個基點。

Going forward, I would expect the RWA to run at higher levels to support our various businesses. Our LCR for State Street Corporation was a healthy 106% and 122% for State Street Bank & Trust. In the quarter, we were quite pleased to return over $700 million to shareholders, consisting of $500 million of common share repurchases and over $200 million in common stock dividends.

展望未來，我希望 RWA 能夠在更高的水平上運行，以支援我們的各項業務。我們對道富銀行 (State Street Corporation) 的 LCR 為 106%，對道富銀行信託 (State Street Bank & Trust) 的 LCR 為 122%。在本季度，我們非常高興地向股東返還了超過 7 億美元，其中包括 5 億美元的普通股回購和超過 2 億美元的普通股股息。

Lastly, as we announced earlier today, our Board authorized a new multiyear common equity repurchase program of up to $5 billion with no expiration date.

最後，正如我們今天早些時候宣布的那樣，我們的董事會批准了一項高達 50 億美元的新的多年期普通股回購計劃，沒有到期日。

Turning to Slide 15. Before I start, let me first share some of the assumptions and underlying our current views for the full year. Let me cover our full year 2024 outlook as well as provide some thoughts on the first quarter, both of which have more potential for variability than usual, given the macroeconomic environment we're operating in.

轉向投影片 15。在開始之前，讓我先分享一些假設以及我們目前對全年的看法。讓我介紹一下我們對 2024 年全年的展望，並提供對第一季的一些想法，考慮到我們所處的宏觀經濟環境，這兩個季度的變化潛力都比平時更大。

In terms of our current macro expectations, as we stand here today, we expect global equity markets to be flat point-to-point in 2024, which equates to the daily average being up about 10% year-over-year. Our interest rate outlook for 2024 largely aligned with the forward curve as of year-end 2023, which I would note continues to move.

就我們目前的宏觀預期而言，我們預計 2024 年全球股市將持平，相當於日均年增 10% 左右。我們對 2024 年的利率前景與截至 2023 年年底的遠期曲線基本一致，我注意到該曲線仍在繼續變化。

We expect to see modest increase in FX and equity volatility, which should support slightly higher FX trading services fees this year, but we are still seeing muted volatility in the first quarter. And we expect currency translation to have less than 0.5 percentage point impact on revenues and expenses due to dollar depreciation, and I would remind you that a weaker U.S. dollar has a favorable impact on revenues and an unfavorable impact on expenses.

我們預計外匯和股票波動性將小幅增加，這應該會支持今年外匯交易服務費用的小幅上漲，但我們仍然看到第一季的波動性較小。我們預計，由於美元貶值，貨幣換算對收入和支出的影響不到 0.5 個百分點，我想提醒您，美元走軟對收入有有利影響，對支出有不利影響。

So we currently expect that full year total fee revenue will be up approximately 3% to 4% ex notable items with servicing fee and management fee growth driven by them and continued strong growth in Front Office Software and Data. This includes a headwind of a little less than 1 percentage point to fee growth from the expected previously disclosed client transition.

因此，我們目前預計，扣除重要項目後，全年總費用收入將增長約 3% 至 4%，其中服務費和管理費的增長將由這些項目推動，並且前台軟體和數據的持續強勁增長。這包括與先前揭露的客戶轉型預期相比，費用成長將出現略低於 1 個百分點的阻力。

Regarding the first quarter of 2024, we currently expect fee revenue to be up 2% on a year-over-year basis, with servicing fees expected to be up 1%, management fees up 7% to 8%, and front office software and data expected to be up over 20%, largely due to increased SaaS, new business and conversions and on-premise renewals. We expect full year 2024 NII to be down about 10% on a year-over-year basis compared to a record 2023. This is dependent on the outcome of global rate cuts and deposit mix and levels, which are obviously difficult to predict.

關於2024年第一季度，我們目前預計費用收入將年增2%，其中服務費預計增長1%，管理費增長7%至8%，前台軟體和數據預計將增長20% 以上，這主要是由於SaaS、新業務和轉換以及本地續約的增加。我們預計，與創紀錄的 2023 年相比，2024 年全年 NII 將同比下降約 10%。這取決於全球降息以及存款結構和水平的結果，而這顯然難以預測。

Regarding the first quarter of 2024, after a significant step-up in 4Q '23, we expect 1Q 24 NII to be flat to down 3% on a sequential quarter basis given current deposit mix expectations.

關於 2024 年第一季度，在 23 年第 4 季大幅成長後，考慮到目前存款組合預期，我們預計 24 年第 1 季 NII 將持平至季減 3%。

Turning to expenses. As you can see on the walk on Page 16, we expect full year expenses ex notables will be up about 2.5% on a nominal basis in 2023, driven largely by our continued investment in the business, which we expect to largely offset through greater productivity savings worth $0.5 billion, which is approximately 1.7x last year's gross savings level.

轉向開支。正如您在第16 頁上看到的那樣，我們預計2023 年全年扣除知名人士的費用將名義上增長約2.5%，這主要是由於我們對業務的持續投資所推動的，我們預計這將通過提高生產力在很大程度上抵消儲蓄價值 5 億美元，約為去年總儲蓄水準的 1.7 倍。

Regarding the first quarter of 2024, we expect expenses ex notable items to be up 1% to 1.5% on a year-over-year basis keeping in mind the seasonal expenses usually occur in the first quarter. As a reminder, we expect to achieve positive fee operating leverage, excluding notable items for full year 2024, given the projected growth in fee revenue and well-controlled expenses.

關於 2024 年第一季度，考慮到季節性費用通常發生在第一季度，我們預計除重要項目外的費用將年增 1% 至 1.5%。提醒一下，鑑於費用收入的預期成長和良好控制的支出，我們預計將實現正的費用營運槓桿（不包括 2024 年全年的顯著項目）。

Finally, we expect taxes should be in the 21%, 22% range for 2024. And with that, let me hand the call back to Ron.

最後，我們預計 2024 年的稅收應在 21% 至 22% 的範圍內。接下來，讓我把電話轉回給 Ron。

Thank you, Eric. Operator, we can now open the call for questions.

謝謝你，埃里克。接線員，我們現在可以開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

Thanks for all the details. I was hoping we could start with unpacking some of the NII dynamics, and I guess I appreciate the uncertainty when it comes to deposits. But Eric, maybe talk a little bit about what drove the upside in the fourth quarter in deposit levels? And if you have a view on what sort of seasonal versus more kind of core client franchise driven and maybe give us some insight on where you expect balances to ultimately stabilize in the back half of '24.

感謝您提供所有詳細資訊。我希望我們能夠從解析一些國家資訊基礎設施動態開始，我想我很欣賞存款方面的不確定性。但是艾瑞克，也許可以談談是什麼推動了第四季存款水準的上升？如果您對哪種季節性與更多類型的核心客戶特許經營驅動有什麼看法，也許可以給我們一些關於您預計餘額在 24 年下半年最終穩定的情況的見解。

Sure, Alex. It's Eric. Let me share with you the texture we have, but I'll just say deposits and deposit levels continue to be volatile. They surprised to the upside. And in particular, we saw a nice uptick in deposits into September, October, we actually saw on the NIB side a downtick in November and then a large, I think, again in December.

當然，亞歷克斯。是埃里克。讓我與您分享我們的情況，但我只想說存款和存款水準繼續波動。他們對上行感到驚訝。特別是，我們看到 9 月、10 月存款大幅增加，實際上我們看到 11 月 NIB 存款下降，然後我認為 12 月又大幅下降。

So the averages came in up for the quarter, which made a big difference. $1 billion of NIB for a month is worth $5 million and you kind of multiply through. And that quickly adds up as we had a spread in December of $5 billion, $6 billion relative to our expectations. And at the same time, we also saw interest-bearing deposits up. Now some of that is just our regular way engagement with clients. Some of that is there leaving more deposits with us. And I think you did see in the Fed reports, the banking system deposits are up 1%, 2% quarter-on-quarter from third quarter to fourth quarter. So it does seem like there's something happening in the market that's creating a little more stability, a little bit of buoyancy. There's some amount of seasonality that we always tend to see in -- at the end of the year as folks accumulate cash, sometimes to pay dividends and ETFs in the next year.

因此，本季的平均值有所上升，這產生了很大的差異。一個月 10 億美元的 NIB 相當於 500 萬美元，可以說是倍增。這個數字很快就會增加，因為我們 12 月的利差為 50 億美元，相對於我們的預期為 60 億美元。同時，我們也看到生息存款增加。現在，其中一些只是我們與客戶互動的常規方式。其中一些在我們那裡留下了更多存款。我想你確實在聯準會的報告中看到，從第三季到第四季度，銀行系統存款較上季成長了1%、2%。因此，市場上似乎確實發生了一些事情，創造了更多的穩定性和活力。我們總是傾向於看到一定程度的季節性——在年底，人們會累積現金，有時是為了在明年支付股息和 ETF。

So it's just hard to read, but that's what played out. And it played out better through the quarter and through the end. If I then try to look forward, it's very hard to look forward for the year. We'd like to operate and expect to operate in the deposit range of $200 billion to $210 billion. That's our kind of goal. A lot of that is just client engagement and helping put their cash to work. And sometimes they put cash to work in deposits, in repo, in money market sweeps. But there's a category -- each one of those is an important category and outlet for clients. And what we're seeing is clients using all the -- I'll call it, all the above, right, including just holding treasury securities. So that we expect to continue, and we think deposits will be roughly in the zone in the first quarter.

所以很難讀懂，但這就是結果。而且整個季度和末期的表現都更好。如果我嘗試展望未來，那麼這一年就很難展望了。我們希望並預計在 2,000 億至 2,100 億美元的存款範圍內營運。這就是我們的目標。其中很大一部分只是客戶的參與和幫助他們的資金發揮作用。有時他們會將現金用於存款、回購、貨幣市場清理。但有一個類別──每一個類別都是顧客的重要類別和出路。我們看到的是客戶使用所有——我稱之為以上所有，對吧，包括只持有國債。因此，我們預計會繼續下去，並且我們認為第一季存款將大致在該區域。

What's a little harder to read is just how noninterest-bearing deposits play out. We do expect those to continue to flow downward. They tend to flow downward for our clients with the largest funds, those are the ones that have been floating down over the last 2 years. So we continue to see that expectation. There continues to be a little bit of repricing that plays out into the first quarter or 2 as well. And that's why I guided on an NII basis to flat to down 3% for the first quarter, just to give you a little bit of an indication, but we expect that to be roughly on flattish deposits.

有點難讀的是無利息存款的表現。我們確實預計這些將繼續向下流動。對於擁有最大資金的客戶來說，它們往往會向下流動，這些資金在過去兩年中一直向下流動。所以我們繼續看到這種期望。第一季或第二季也會繼續進行一些重新定價。這就是為什麼我在第一季的 NII 基礎上將其指導為持平或下降 3%，只是為了給您一點指示，但我們預計存款將大致持平。

Got it. Very helpful. My follow-up, sticking with deposits is around just deposit beta as we start to sort of enter the rate cutting cycle. So hoping you could articulate maybe what you're assuming for deposit beta on the way down in your '24 NII guidance? And then broadly, how we should think about sort of the cadence of deposit betas as we progress through the rate cutting cycle into the back half '24, '25 maybe. But just curious to know kind of high or the upper at the beginning lower towards the end or the opposite?

知道了。很有幫助。我的後續行動是，隨著我們開始進入降息週期，堅持存款只是存款貝塔值。因此，希望您能在 24 NII 指南中闡明您對存款貝塔值的假設？然後從廣義上講，當我們進入降息週期進入24年、25年後半段時，我們應該如何考慮存款貝塔的節奏。但只是想知道是高還是開始時較高，接近結束時較低還是相反？

Alex, it's an important topic because it's how we interact with our clients. It's how we price our products. It's how the industry has operated in for many years. I think you know that our deposit betas on a cumulative basis have climbed quite a bit in the U.S. They're 75% or so cumulatively since the start of the cycle. In euros, it's around 60% cumulatively in pound sterling, closer to the 30% to 35%. So they're clearly moved up.

亞歷克斯，這是一個重要的主題，因為這是我們與客戶互動的方式。這就是我們為產品定價的方式。這就是該行業多年來的運作方式。我想你知道我們的存款貝塔值在美國已經大幅攀升，自周期開始以來累計達到 75% 左右。以歐元計算，以英鎊計算的累積比例約為 60%，接近 30% 至 35%。所以他們顯然已經上升了。

What certainly happens as, and I'll say when, if and when rates fall, is the deposits beta is reverse. There's some amount of symmetry. Now they reverse instantaneously. We want to be careful with our clients. We want to be fair. But we do think that over multiple quarters and certainly over any realistic time frame, the Fed cuts, and there's got to be an adjustment. Now part of that happens because we have a good bit of our deposits that are indexed to market. right? They're indexed to market indicators. There are quite a few that are indexed with a spread. And then there are a small amount now that has a transactional kind of, I'll call it, administered feature. But you'll generally see a broad amount of symmetry in deposits down versus up.

當利率下降時，我會說，當利率下降時，肯定會發生什麼，存款貝塔值就會逆轉。有一定程度的對稱性。現在他們瞬間逆轉。我們希望對我們的客戶保持謹慎。我們想要公平。但我們確實認為，在多個季度，當然在任何現實的時間範圍內，聯準會都會降息，必須進行調整。現在發生這種情況的部分原因是我們有很大一部分存款與市場掛鉤。正確的？它們與市場指標掛鉤。有相當多的指數是有價差的。現在有一小部分具有交易類型，我稱之為管理功能。但您通常會發現存款的下降與上升有廣泛的對稱性。

I think what you do need to keep in mind is that our asset sensitivity and liability sensitivity, though, are somewhat different between the international markets and in the U.S., right? In international markets, because those cumulative betas are still in the 30% to 60% range. We're still asset sensitive. So we make more money with increases in rates. And we actually -- NII will trim down with decreases in rates. And that's where we're most -- that's our interest rate sensitivity today.

我認為你需要記住的是，我們的資產敏感性和負債敏感性在國際市場和美國市場之間有所不同，對嗎？在國際市場上，因為這些累積貝塔值仍然在 30% 到 60% 的範圍內。我們仍然對資產敏感。因此，我們透過提高利率來賺更多的錢。事實上，我們的 NII 將會隨著利率的下降而減少。這就是我們今天最敏感的地方。

On the U.S., we have a slight positive bias towards being liability-sensitive, but it's still relatively slight. I'd almost call it neutral. So part of what we're doing is just navigating this interest rate environment. It's not exactly clear when the rates come. It's not clear whether the U.S. cuts before Europe or vice versa. And part of what we'll do is actively manage our portfolio to try to take advantage of what's coming. At the same time, we'll price our deposits fairly and prudently.

在美國，我們對責任敏感有輕微的正面偏見，但仍然相對輕微。我幾乎會稱之為中立。因此，我們正在做的部分工作就是應對這種利率環境。目前還不清楚利率何時會到來。目前尚不清楚美國是否先於歐洲削減開支，或者反之亦然。我們要做的一部分就是積極管理我們的投資組合，以嘗試利用即將發生的事情。同時，我們將公平、審慎地定價存款。

Next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫南·霍肯。

I think maybe some of what you just said on the non-U.S. side might explain this. But when we think about triangulating the minus 10% to the fact that 1Q is either going to be flat, totally down a little on NII, it sort of suggests that your exit rate by the time you get to the 4Q '24 based on what you can see today, it's probably going to be rather low. Am I reading correctly in thinking that it's that non-U.S. piece? And that's going to drive some of that weakness. And am I extrapolating the comments correctly to think that we could see a little bit more back-end weighted decline for NII.

我想也許你剛才非美方面所說的一些話可以解釋這一點。但是，當我們考慮將負 10% 與第一季持平或 NII 完全下降這一事實進行三角測量時，這在某種程度上表明，到 24 年第四季度時，您的退出率取決於你今天可以看到，它可能會相當低。我是否正確地認為這是非美國作品？這將加劇一些弱點。我是否正確地推斷了這些評論，認為我們可能會看到 NII 的後端加權下降更多一些。

Brennan, it's Eric. I think you've got the right general pattern framed in the area of NII. Clearly, we have a very strong step off in particular, in December, but in the fourth quarter, which will flow into first quarter. And then we expect a trending down. We had a couple of -- well, probably earlier this -- earlier last year, so a couple of quarters ago, I described an NII range of $550 million to $600 million. And we think we'll get into that range, the top end of that range by around the third quarter. But it's a little bit hard to know the exact shape. We just -- but you've got the right direction of travel.

布倫南，我是埃里克。我認為您已經在 NII 領域建立了正確的整體模式。顯然，我們將在 12 月以及第四季取得非常強勁的進展，這將延續到第一季。然後我們預計會出現下降趨勢。去年早些時候，我們有過幾次——嗯，可能是今年早些時候——所以幾個季度前，我描述了 NII 範圍在 5.5 億美元到 6 億美元之間。我們認為我們將在第三季度左右進入這個範圍，即該範圍的上限。但要知道確切的形狀有點困難。我們只是——但你已經找到了正確的前進方向。

And then we expect some stabilization in the second half of next year, maybe around the top half, the middle half of that range, just really hard to tell exactly where and when. If you step back and ask, what are the underlying drivers? There are really 3 drivers that continue to be important. In terms of tailwinds, we continue to have long rates playing through the portfolio and the investment portfolio balances as the as they recoupon at higher rates, that's particularly important in the first half of the year, a little less so in the second half of the year, but that continues through as a positive.

然後我們預計明年下半年會出現一些穩定，可能是在該範圍的上半部、中半部左右，只是很難確切地說出何時何地。如果你退後一步問，潛在的驅動因素是什麼？實際上有 3 個驅動因素仍然很重要。就順風而言，我們繼續在投資組合和投資組合餘額中發揮長期利率的作用，因為它們以更高的利率回收，這在今年上半年尤為重要，而在下半年則稍顯重要。今年，但這仍然是積極的。

You then have, as you mentioned, short rates starting to come down. And because of our sensitivity position across the global markets, that does start to have a headwind impact on NII as those cuts continue to come through. Now we'll see what's the pattern and pace of U.S. versus international cuts. And I think right now, we've pegged to the forward, which shows a lot of consistency in symmetry, but we'll see if that really happens because you can see inflation expectations keep moving around literally daily, weekly.

正如您所提到的，短期利率開始下降。由於我們在全球市場的敏感性，隨著這些削減的繼續進行，這確實開始對 NII 產生不利影響。現在我們將看看美國與國際的削減模式和步伐如何。我認為現在，我們已經盯住了遠期，這在對稱性上表現出了很大的一致性，但我們將看看這是否真的發生，因為你可以看到通膨預期每天、每週都在變化。

And then the third feature is just client deposits. It's a mix. And while we expect client deposits to be in that zone of $200 million, $210 million, they might bump up above that, a little below that, but they'll be in that broad zone. The mix will continue to shave down out of noninterest bearing over the next quarter or two, we think, it's hard to, again, to predict and then there's -- we're working through the final stages of some of our interest-bearing deposit, repricing those seem to have taken a little longer in some cases than we expected. That's okay. That means we accrete income. But those continue to come through and they'll play through in the first quarter or two as well. And then that's what kind of brings us to some level of reasonable stability in the back half of the year.

第三個功能就是客戶存款。這是一個混合。雖然我們預計客戶存款將在 2 億美元、2.1 億美元的範圍內，但它們可能會高於這個數字，也可能略低於這個數字，但它們會在這個廣闊的範圍內。我們認為，在接下來的一兩個季度，無息存款的組合將繼續減少，很難再預測，然後我們正在完成一些有息存款的最後階段，在某些情況下，重新定價的時間似乎比我們預期的要長一些。沒關係。這意味著我們增加了收入。但這些都會繼續出現，他們也會在第一節或第二節中發揮作用。這就是讓我們在今年下半年達到某種程度的合理穩定的原因。

Eric. It's very, very helpful. And by the way, I apologize for the background noise that is here. Second question, a bit more strategic. So we saw a flurry of Bitcoin ETF launches here recently. It didn't seem like you all actually landed any of those servicing opportunities. So I want to confirm whether my early read on that is right. And given the magnitude of the investment and the focus you've made on digital assets, what did you learn if you guys missed on that? And is that what led to the restructuring of the digital asset group? And what should we see as a change from that restructuring?

埃里克.這非常非常有幫助。順便說一句，我對這裡的背景噪音表示歉意。第二個問題，更具戰略意義。因此，我們最近看到了一系列比特幣 ETF 的推出。看起來你們並沒有真正獲得任何這些服務機會。所以我想確認一下我早期的解讀是否正確。考慮到投資的規模以及你們對數位資產的關注，如果你們錯過了這一點，你們會學到什麼？這就是導致數位資產集團重組的原因嗎？我們應該看到這次重組帶來了什麼改變？

So Brennan, there were 11 launched on the day that the -- or day after the SEC gave approval, and we actually service 3 of them. And I think we're the only ones that servicing across 3 different digital custodians. So we helped 3 of the major players make this happen. So we're quite active in the space. And as you'd expect, we do everything for each of those 3 except for the actual custody for the reasons that I think you know.

因此，布倫南 (Brennan) 在 SEC 批准的當天或之後的第二天推出了 11 個項目，而我們實際上為其中的 3 個項目提供了服務。我認為我們是唯一一家為 3 個不同的數位託管機構提供服務的公司。因此，我們幫助三個主要參與者實現了這一目標。所以我們在這個領域非常活躍。正如你所期望的，我們為這三個人中的每一個做了一切，除了實際的監護權，原因我想你知道。

So no, we're very active in the space. It was -- what did we learn? I mean it's early. What I think everybody is watching out for is there's a lot of players that went into the market, some of them with some existing high levels of assets. What will be interesting to see over time is, does it actually consolidate? How does it work in terms of the -- who the buyers are institutional versus retail versus intermediary, but these are early days. And it was good to get the uncertainty cleared up. And for all this to get launched, and we're keen to be part of it.

所以不，我們在這個領域非常活躍。這是——我們學到了什麼？我的意思是現在還早。我認為每個人都在關注的是，有很多參與者進入了市場，其中一些人擁有一些現有的高水準資產。隨著時間的推移，有趣的是，它真的會合併嗎？它是如何運作的——買家是機構買家、零售買家還是中介買家，但現在還處於早期階段。消除不確定性是件好事。對於這一切的啟動，我們渴望成為其中的一部分。

Yes. Ron, thanks for clarifying pure custody versus the servicing, Very, very helpful.

是的。羅恩，感謝您澄清純粹託管與服務，非常非常有幫助。

Yes. And just to clarify, it's -- I mean, I think everybody knows this. But I mean, right now, it's extremely difficult for a bank to do pure custody because of the capital requirements that are imposed on a bank. I mean it's basically 100% capital. So therefore, virtually everybody is working with some kind of digital custodian, a non-bank digital custodian, but all of the other parts of the ecosystem, which we're quite familiar with, we are participating in.

是的。澄清一下，我的意思是，我想每個人都知道這一點。但我的意思是，目前，由於對銀行的資本要求，銀行要做純粹的託管是極其困難的。我的意思是它基本上是100%的資本。因此，幾乎每個人都在與某種數位託管人（非銀行數位託管人）合作，但我們非常熟悉的生態系統的所有其他部分都在參與。

Your next question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

So big flows in SSGA, which is great to see these things are unpredictable, but I am curious on if you had any thoughts towards sustainability, maybe it would be the color of what clients are buying, what clients, I mean, I'm sorry, what flavors of ETF are they? The average fee? And what you're specifically doing differently on the distribution front and education front to get at those flows?

SSGA 的流量如此之大，很高興看到這些事情是不可預測的，但我很好奇你是否對永續發展有任何想法，也許這將是客戶購買的東西的顏色，我的意思是，我是抱歉，ETF 是什麼類型的？平均費用？為了獲得這些流量，您在分銷方面和教育方面具體做了哪些不同的事情？

Yes. So there are a number of things going on there in the fourth quarter, Glenn, and throughout 2023. I think as we've noted, and certainly, you all would have observed, there was -- it was most of the year with some episodic exceptions, it was a risk-off environment that changed in fourth quarter somewhat as predicted once investors got a sense of where interest rates were going. As they did when the Fed communicated in the third quarter more or less a pause. I think that started activity going. So, much of the activity late in the year would have been the kind of classic risk on, let's put positions on quickly, benefiting the highly liquid SPDR Core, SPY in the sector ETFs. But underlying it and throughout the year, the low-cost ETFs, which represent different investors, these would be -- the ultimate holders here tend to be individuals. They're often advised by an intermediary like an RIA. So the -- it's very sticky. And we have continued to build share there, both in equity and fixed income, low cost.

是的。因此，格倫，第四季度以及整個 2023 年會發生很多事情。我認為正如我們已經注意到的，當然，你們大家都會觀察到，一年中的大部分時間都發生了一些事情除了偶發的例外情況外，一旦投資者了解了利率走勢，避險環境在第四季度就發生了一些變化，正如投資者所預測的那樣。正如聯準會在第三季的溝通中或多或少暫停時所做的那樣。我認為活動開始了。因此，今年稍後的大部分活動都是典型的風險，讓我們快速建倉，使行業 ETF 中流動性高的 SPDR Core、SPY 受益。但從根本上說，全年代表不同投資者的低成本 ETF 的最終持有者往往是個人。他們通常會得到 RIA 等中介機構的建議。所以——它非常黏。我們繼續在股票和固定收益領域建立低成本份額。

Across the board, fixed income is seeing a dramatic growth. I think there's increasing acceptance, both by retail investors and institutional investors that the ETF is a good vehicle to hold fixed income and you're just seeing that asset allocation moving that way.

總體而言，固定收益正在急劇增長。我認為，散戶和機構投資者越來越接受 ETF 是持有固定收益的良好工具，你會看到資產配置正在朝著這個方向發展。

And then finally, active ETFs of all sort, you're seeing growth in. And it's been a long time coming. As you know, it's been over a decade on how is this actually going to play out. And it's ironic how it's playing out and that everybody is just taking their standard investment strategy and putting it in active ETF. We benefit some of that on the GA side in terms of what they're doing in fixed income, but we benefit from it greatly on the servicing side because we're very, very, not to overuse the word, active in the active ETF servicing space. And we believe you'll see a lot more growth there as core funds and core offerings of well known asset managers either get converted to ETFs or launch those ETFs.

最後，各種主動型 ETF 都在成長。而且這已經是很長一段時間了。如你所知，十多年來，人們一直在研究這件事到底會如何發展。諷刺的是，事情的發展方式是，每個人都只是採用他們的標準投資策略並將其投入主動型 ETF。我們在 GA 方面受益於他們在固定收益領域所做的事情，但我們在服務方面受益匪淺，因為我們非常非常不要過度使用活躍 ETF 這個詞。維修空間。我們相信，隨著知名資產管理公司的核心基金和核心產品轉換為 ETF 或推出這些 ETF，您將看到更多的成長。

So we're really pleased on the GA side. In terms of what drove it, I think it was the next part of your question, I mean, part of it was much more focused and resources dedicated to the various intermediary channels. I mean we -- our roots are in the institutional channels, but the lots of the growth is in the intermediary channel. So that's part of it. And then as we talked about, I believe, last quarter, we took a hard look at pricing, particularly in the so-called low-cost ETFs and recognizing their durability felt that it was worth the investment to reprice them to continue to gain market share because they tend to be very, very sticky.

所以我們對 GA 方面非常滿意。就驅動因素而言，我認為這是你問題的下一部分，我的意思是，其中一部分更加集中，資源專用於各種中介管道。我的意思是我們——我們的根源在於機構管道，但大部分成長是在中間管道。這就是其中的一部分。然後，正如我們所討論的，我相信，上個季度，我們認真審視了定價，特別是所謂的低成本 ETF，並認識到它們的耐用性，認為重新定價以繼續贏得市場是值得的投資分享是因為它們往往非常非常有黏性。

That's a lot of detail. It's perfect. I appreciate it. I'll go quickly on the follow-up. It's the same question just different on the servicing front, happy with the wins you noted. Maybe we could just drill down. I know it's not huge yet, but the private markets piece of the servicing wins. I'm curious if you want to tell us how much it was. But more importantly, what it is and how -- is it one client? Or is it multiple times, I'm curious on how that premarket servicing space is developing.

這是很多細節。這是完美的。我很感激。我會盡快跟進。這是同一個問題，只是在服務方面有所不同，對您所取得的勝利感到滿意。也許我們可以深入研究。我知道它還不是很大，但服務的私人市場部分獲勝。我很好奇你願不願意告訴我們多少錢。但更重要的是，它是什麼以及如何——它是一個客戶嗎？或者多次，我很好奇售前服務空間是如何發展的。

No, no, it's both. To answer the last part of it first, Glenn, it's certainly not 1 client. I mean, this is a space that we've invested in, and we're well known in. And we see a secular trend here. where it's -- so many of these operations are held inside, firms are highly bespoke often sitting in very expensive locations. And as the product sets have become more complicated, I mean, it's following a path that the active long-only industry followed 10, 15 years ago. I was trying to do all this stuff inside when it was just a couple of products, they are fairly straightforward. That's not what's happening now. Products are more complicated. As you start to think about the structures that enable high net worth individuals to participate in it, you've got that added complexity. And then oftentimes, there's side investments that are permitted, et cetera. So it's very complicated.

不，不，兩者都是。首先回答最後一部分，Glenn，這肯定不是 1 位客戶。我的意思是，這是一個我們投資的領域，我們眾所周知。我們在這裡看到了一個長期趨勢。許多這樣的業務都在內部進行，公司都是高度客製化的，通常坐落在非常昂貴的地方。我的意思是，隨著產品組合變得更加複雜，它正在走上 10、15 年前活躍的多頭產業所走的道路。我試著在裡面做所有這些事情，當時它只是幾個產品，它們相當簡單。現在的情況並非如此。產品比較複雜。當您開始考慮使高淨值人士能夠參與其中的結構時，您會發現複雜性增加了。通常，還有允許的附帶投資等等。所以這非常複雜。

It lends itself to outsourcing. It's still very much an in-sourced business. So we see lots of potential growth in it. It's fee characteristics are different. Positive in the sense that the fees are higher, but also the fees get fully recognized when the fund is fully invested. So part that we pay a lot of attention to is what's the expected actual, one, money raised and then draw down? And how do we do our best to match our expenses to that? But we're very excited about the business.

它適合外包。這在很大程度上仍然是一項內源業務。所以我們看到它有很多潛在的成長。其收費特點不同。積極的一面是，費用較高，但當基金完全投資時，費用得到充分認可。因此，我們非常關注的部分是預期的實際情況，第一，籌集的資金然後提取？我們如何盡力使我們的開支與此相符？但我們對這項業務感到非常興奮。

Much of the new investment product investment that Eric talked about in the 2024 guide includes further strengthening of our position there. There's innovation in there and we -- our goal is to continue to set moats around us so we can continue to excel at it.

Eric 在 2024 年指南中談到的許多新投資產品投資都包括進一步加強我們在那裡的地位。這裡面有創新，我們的目標是繼續在我們周圍設置護城河，這樣我們就可以繼續在這方面表現出色。

And Glenn, it's Eric. I'd just add private has been a real strong area of growth for us. We've described it as up 10%, 15% in different quarters. So it's a big part of our growth agenda as we -- this past year. And then this coming year as we take our sales goals up, the $350 million to $400 million at least 1/4 of that plus is going to be around private, and that's what's going to help us continue to drive private growth. We think in the 15%-plus range in terms of year-on-year revenues. So it's an area that I think we've actually broadly with both large and small and midsize. It's actually well distributed, and it's got a good mix of U.S., Europe and Asia sales coming through as well.

格倫，是埃里克。我只想補充一點，私人業務對我們來說是一個真正強勁的成長領域。我們將其描述為在不同季度增長 10%、15%。因此，這是我們去年成長議程的重要組成部分。接下來的一年，當我們提高銷售目標時，3.5 億至 4 億美元的銷售目標中至少有 1/4 將來自私人企業，這將有助於我們繼續推動私人企業的成長。我們認為年收入將成長 15% 以上。因此，我認為我們實際上已經廣泛涉足了這一領域，包括大型、小型和中型。事實上，它的分佈很好，而且在美國、歐洲和亞洲的銷售也很好。

Yes, as well as, Glenn, it's not just private equity, it's private equity adventure. -- private credit is booming. And for every bank that complaints about what's going to happen with regulation and the fact that it's pushing activity out of the banking system that's going right into the private credit area, and we should be the beneficiary of that growth.

是的，格倫，這不僅僅是私募股權，這是私募股權冒險。 ——民間信貸蓬勃發展。對於每家抱怨監管將會發生什麼以及監管將活動從銀行體系中擠出而直接進入私人信貸領域這一事實的銀行來說，我們應該成為這種增長的受益者。

Your next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Eric, can you share with us -- I know you run more in the State Street 10 years ago. But your comments about the net interest income outlook and just how volatile it is due to what's going on in the bond market with the Federal Reserve and their balance sheet. Are there any indicators, you're monitoring that we could look at that might be able to give us a better insight to when net interest income for State Street might be more predictable on a go-forward basis?

Eric，可以跟我們分享一下嗎──我知道你10年前在道富銀行跑得比較多。但您對淨利息收入前景的評論，以及由於聯準會債券市場及其資產負債表的情況而導致的波動性。您正在監測的是否有任何指標可以讓我們更了解道富銀行的淨利息收入在未來何時更容易預測？

Gerard, it's Eric. I take a sigh when I think about this question. I think the predictability is partly around Fed actions, right? This is the highest rate level that we've seen in 22 years. And also the -- if I go back couple of years, the lowest rate level we've probably seen in 2 decades as well, right? So we've kind of -- we're at these wide bookends relative to really the -- since the -- I want to say the turn of the century, right? That's really created this volatility.

傑拉德，我是艾瑞克。想到這個問題，我不禁嘆了口氣。我認為可預測性部分取決於聯準會的行動，對嗎？這是 22 年來的最高利率水準。還有——如果我回到幾年前，我們可能也看到了二十年來的最低利率水平，對嗎？所以我們有點--我們正處於這些寬書立相對於--自--我想說世紀之交，對嗎？這確實造成了這種波動。

Can we manage that and mitigate? Well, we do try to sustain on a regular basis, match off deposit, deposit tenor, rate characteristics with the asset side of the portfolio, and we do that with duration. The challenge is if you take too little duration, you have even more volatility. If you have to take too much duration on the asset side of the portfolio, you've got more AOCI risk. And so our tools to stabilize work up to a point and then have some negative implications.

我們可以管理並緩解這種情況嗎？嗯，我們確實嘗試定期維持，將存款、存款期限、利率特徵與投資組合的資產方面相匹配，並且我們透過久期來做到這一點。挑戰在於，如果持續時間太短，波動性就會更大。如果您必須在投資組合的資產方面考慮過多的久期，那麼您就會面臨更大的 AOCI 風險。因此，我們的穩定工具在達到一定程度後就會產生一些負面影響。

So I don't really see a way to turn what we'd like to have. I don't see a way to turn this into just a flywheel of metronome that moves at a certain pace, and it's just a feature of what we do. And part of it is our institutional deposits have somewhat more asset sensitivity or liability sensitivity to rates relative to a very simple regional bank. So we'll tend to have a little more, but that's part of the industry. That's -- I think we're in line with peers.

所以我真的沒有找到一種方法來改變我們想要的東西。我沒有找到一種方法可以將其變成以一定速度移動的節拍器飛輪，而這只是我們所做的功能。部分原因是，與非常簡單的區域銀行相比，我們的機構存款對利率的資產敏感性或負債敏感性更高。所以我們往往會多一點，但這是行業的一部分。我認為我們與同行保持一致。

Very good. Ron, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the success and the momentum you're having with the Alpha product in the Servicing business. In the Investment Services business, I should say. Is there any capacity constraints that you've got to be careful about if the momentum continues? Or is it almost now when you got plenty of bandwidth to handle future growth?

非常好。 Ron，在您準備好的演講中，您談到了 Alpha 產品在服務業務中所取得的成功和勢頭。我應該說，在投資服務業務。如果這種勢頭持續下去，是否有任何產能限制是您必須小心的？或者幾乎現在您就有足夠的頻寬來應對未來的成長？

Yes. I would say that the capacity constraint has been particularly with these large complicated client, the really large ones, some of which are -- well, most of which are still being onboarded, the capacity strength has been around onboarding. Over past year in particular, we've gotten better at that. You can -- if you just look at that number, we were roughly at about, as I recall, $3.6 trillion in assets to be onboarded, and we're now down to $2.3 trillion. So you can see we're getting better at that. The real constraint to be specific about it tends to be and how quickly do you onboard the middle office element to that because that often requires engineering and by that I mean, engineering with the client because ultimately, that's a client and it's like any other kind of industrial outsourcing.

是的。我想說，容量限制尤其是這些大型複雜客戶，真正的大型客戶，其中一些 - 嗯，其中大多數仍在入職，容量強度一直圍繞著入職。特別是在過去的一年裡，我們在這方面做得更好。你可以——如果你只看這個數字，我記得，我們​​大約有 3.6 兆美元的資產需要投入，而現在已經降至 2.3 兆美元。所以你可以看到我們在這方面做得越來越好。具體而言，真正的限制往往是您如何快速地將中台元素加入其中，因為這通常需要工程設計，我的意思是，與客戶一起進行工程設計，因為最終，這是一個客戶，就像任何其他類型的客戶一樣的工業外包。

A client has an operation, does things in a particular way, wants to outsource that element of it to us, we're not interested in taking somebody's mess for less. I mean, we need to actually work with them to engineer it in a way where as much of it as possible is standardized and that the customization is limited to the kinds of user interfaces or how things are actually applied. And we've just gotten better at that over time. So I would say, looking forward, we don't see that as being a meaningful constraint.

客戶有一項業務，以特定的方式做事，想要將其中的部分外包給我們，我們不想以更少的代價承擔別人的混亂。我的意思是，我們需要與他們實際合作，以盡可能標準化的方式進行設計，並且自訂僅限於使用者介面的類型或實際應用的方式。隨著時間的推移，我們在這方面做得越來越好。所以我想說，展望未來，我們不認為這是一個有意義的限制。

Your next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell。

Just maybe a follow-up on the outside of sort of the private markets, you've had -- you've ramped up pretty quickly in terms of getting to your $400 million of net of new servicing fee wins. And maybe if private markets are a quarter, can we talk a little bit about the other 3 quarters, where you've seen success? What's worked? What hasn't worked? And what kind of opportunity set do you see maybe even get above the $100 million?

也許只是私人市場以外的後續行動，您很快就獲得了 4 億美元的新服務費淨收入。也許如果私募市場是一個季度，我們可以談談您在其中看到成功的其他三個季度嗎？有什麼作用？什麼沒起作用？您認為什麼樣的機會甚至可能超過 1 億美元？

Jim, it's Ron. I mean, it's no one thing, but a lot of really important things across the board to ramp up our execution. Where we're seeing it to answer the first part of your question is the core Investment Managers segment still remains strong and active for us. And as some of those firms are facing the same kind of market that everybody else is, they're more interested than actually trying to do more with us and do different things with us.

吉姆，是羅恩。我的意思是，這不是一件事，而是全面提升我們執行力的許多非常重要的事情。我們認為它可以回答您問題的第一部分，即核心投資經理部門對我們來說仍然保持強勁和活躍。由於其中一些公司面臨著與其他公司相同的市場，因此他們比實際嘗試與我們一起做更多事情和做不同的事情更感興趣。

A little bit of a resurgence in the asset owner marketplace and in particular, amongst asset owners that aren't just pure asset allocators, meaning they're managing some assets themselves or truly actively asset allocating, doing not just listening to a consultant telling them what to do, but either managing money or at a strategic and tactical level, allocating assets, which again requires support.

資產所有者市場有所復甦，特別是在不僅僅是純粹資產配置者的資產所有者中，這意味著他們自己管理一些資產或真正積極地進行資產配置，而不僅僅是聽顧問告訴他們做什麼，但無論是管理資金，或是在戰略和戰術層面上，配置資產，這又需要支援。

But in all cases, what we're doing is we're really focused on ensuring that the back office part of all this comes with -- and comes with it in a timely fashion, right? Because as I was saying earlier when I was talking to Gerard, the thing that takes a long time or a longer time to onboard would be the middle office, the outsourcing element of it. Onboarding back office is pretty easy, pretty straightforward. And it, in almost all instances, comes on in a pretty healthy incremental margin given the scale activities to it.

但在所有情況下，我們所做的都是真正專注於確保所有這一切的後台部分都能及時實現，對嗎？因為正如我之前與傑拉德交談時所說的那樣，需要很長時間或更長的時間才能入職的就是中台，也就是其中的外包元素。入職後台非常容易、非常簡單。考慮到其規模活動，幾乎在所有情況下，它都會以相當健康的增量利潤出現。

And then finally, just to just talk about regions. We have invested heavily in the capabilities in all of our regions where you see the -- probably the most impact from that over the last couple of years, has been just the very good growth that we're seeing in Asia Pacific. And really, all parts of Asia Pacific from Australia north to Japan and everything in between.

最後，只是談談地區。我們對所有地區的能力進行了大量投資，在過去幾年中，您看到的最大影響可能是我們在亞太地區看到的非常好的成長。事實上，亞太地區的所有地區，從澳洲北部到日本以及其間的所有地區。

The U.S., we've talked about in the past, we were not pleased with where we were in this past year, particularly the second half of the year. We're actually reasonably pleased with how we've done. Europe has always been strong to us. It was a little softer in 2023, but again, a very strong pipeline. So -- but that regional focus where we're actually pushing accountability down into the country and regional level and making sure that it's very clear who is responsible for what, sharing, obviously, not just the technology and the product, but the best practices in how you move these things forward, but very much decentralizing the accountability.

美國，我們過去談過，我們對過去一年的情況不滿意，特別是下半年。事實上，我們對我們的表現相當滿意。歐洲對我們來說一直都很強大。 2023 年的情況稍微疲軟，但同樣，管道非常強大。因此，我們實際上將責任落實到國家和地區層面，並確保非常清楚誰負責什麼，顯然，共享的不僅僅是技術和產品，還有最佳實踐。在於如何推動這些事情向前發展，但很大程度上是分散責任。

Okay. That's all really helpful. And maybe, Eric, just a quick one on the held the maturity book still yielding just a little over 2%. Can you kind of walk us through the maturity profile of that? How long we start to see some pickup in -- or turnover and reinvestment benefits from that portfolio?

好的。這一切都非常有幫助。艾瑞克，也許，在持有的到期帳簿上快速查看一下，收益率仍略高於 2%。您能否向我們介紹一下其成熟概況？我們需要多長時間才能開始看到該投資組合的回升或營業額和再投資收益？

Yes, it's Eric. The way I describe it is we've got a natural roll-off in that portfolio. It's about $5 billion a year. So it sort of plays out and that's related to the maturity in the latter, so that will come down over the next couple of years. As that happens, because as you say, it's at a lower coupon relative to our average, right? Our average portfolio yields are in the [3.5%] range. There's real pickup that comes through that line, at least for the next couple of quarters, I guess, is probably for the next couple of years even, because once rates stabilize, we do think that we'll also get some steepness in the yield curve, and that will help through.

是的，這是埃里克。我的描述是，我們的投資組合已經自然下滑。每年大約50億美元。所以它會發揮作用，這與後者的成熟度有關，因此在未來幾年內會下降。當這種情況發生時，因為正如你所說，它的優惠券相對於我們的平均水平較低，對吧？我們的平均投資組合收益率在 [3.5%] 範圍內。我猜，至少在接下來的幾個季度，甚至可能在接下來的幾年裡，這條線都會出現真正的回升，因為一旦利率穩定下來，我們確實認為我們的收益率也會出現一些陡峭的情況曲線，這將有助於通過。

So there are some benefits coming that way. It's also a portfolio that obviously will be insulate us from rate moves. I don't think in the next few years, this is the last down cycle versus up cycle, then that we'll see. And so it will serve its purpose then as well.

所以這樣會有一些好處。這也是一個顯然能讓我們免受利率變動影響的投資組合。我認為在接下來的幾年裡，這不會是最後一個下行週期與上行週期，然後我們就會看到。因此它也將達到其目的。

Your next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So Eric, I wanted to start off with a question just on the fee guidance. And benchmarking your historical fee performance versus the guidance. You've struggled to at least meet or exceed the guide in the absence of significant equity market gains. Sorry, can you guys hear me okay?

艾瑞克，我想先問一個關於費用指導的問題。並將您的歷史費用表現與指導進行基準比較。在股市沒有大幅上漲的情況下，您一直在努力至少達到或超過指南。抱歉，你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And I'm sorry about that. So you have a conservative market assumption embedded in the fee guide for the coming year. And just given that historical experience, I was hoping you could just provide additional granularity in terms of growth across the different fee lines that's underpinning that 3% to 4% growth assumption for this year.

我對此感到抱歉。因此，您在未來一年的費用指南中嵌入了保守的市場假設。鑑於歷史經驗，我希望你們能夠提供不同費用線成長的額外粒度，這支撐了今年 3% 至 4% 的成長假設。

Sure. Let me maybe describe it in a couple of ways because 3% to 4% is for the overall franchise. We think that there are some areas of the franchise that will be higher and in some cases, a good bit higher than that. Asset Management, very geared towards the equity markets and the 10% tailwind in equity markets, comes through on literally half of that tends to right through the asset management fee line. And then the flows that we talked about earlier in the call provide a nice tailwind.

當然。讓我用幾種方式來描述它，因為 3% 到 4% 是針對整個特許經營的。我們認為特許經營權的某些領域會更高，在某些情況下，會比這高很多。資產管理非常適合股票市場以及股票市場 10% 的順風車，實際上其中一半往往直接透過資產管理費用線來實現。然後，我們之前在電話會議中討論的流程提供了良好的推動力。

So we need to see how markets play through, but the combination of those two, which is exactly how the business is designed, it's market-based and it's flow based, will be healthy. I think software and data processing, we've historically said high single digits, sometimes low double digits. If you look at the last couple of years, you're at the 9%, 10% average full year growth. We've got good visibility there. Part of that is Alpha and part of that is outright software and data sales. And so that's strong.

因此，我們需要看看市場如何發揮作用，但這兩者的結合，這正是業務的設計方式，基於市場和基於流量，將是健康的。我認為軟體和資料處理，我們歷來說過高個位數，有時是低兩位數。如果你看看過去幾年，你會發現全年平均成長率為 9%、10%。我們那裡的能見度很好。其中一部分是阿爾法，一部分是徹底的軟體和數據銷售。所以這很強大。

I think at the other bookend, servicing fees will come in. It will be a bit below the 3% to 4%, now some of that is core organic net new business that we need to drive, which is why we've reshaped and tuned that area, in particular on the sales and how we go to market. You're seeing some of the benefits there and how we measure ourselves. We're being very conscious there. But one of the reasons that one will be lower this coming year is that we had that previously announced transition coming through, which will mute some of what we'd like to see.

我認為在另一個書擋上，服務費將會進來。它將略低於 3% 到 4%，現在其中一些是我們需要推動的核心有機淨新業務，這就是我們重塑和調整了該領域，特別是銷售以及我們如何進入市場。您將看到其中的一些好處以及我們如何衡量自己。我們在那裡非常有意識。但明年這一數字將會降低的原因之一是我們先前宣布的過渡即將完成，這將削弱我們希望看到的一些內容。

And then the markets activities, we're hoping will be somewhere in the middle of the range, whether FX trading and [sec] finance. I think what plays out behind the market dependent areas and sometimes why we don't need is around client -- what we describe as client activity, how much transactional activity, whether our clients are on the sidelines or whether they're all in, that this past year on the servicing fees which are half of our fees, that was worth 2 to 3 percentage points of servicing fee headwind. I mean that literally. So you do the math, that's worth $100 million, $150 million of headwind because we don't have those -- that activity, the transactional activity in derivatives, in international custody, which is very, very valuable to us.

然後，我們希望市場活動處於中間範圍，無論是外匯交易還是[證券]金融。我認為市場依賴領域背後的因素以及有時我們不需要的原因是圍繞客戶——我們所描述的客戶活動、交易活動的數量、我們的客戶是否處於觀望狀態或他們是否都參與其中，去年，服務費占我們費用的一半，這相當於服務費逆風的2 到3 個百分點。我的意思是字面意思。所以你算一下，這價值 1 億美元、1.5 億美元的逆風，因為我們沒有那些活動，衍生品的交易活動，國際託管，這對我們來說非常非常有價值。

So part of what plays through is these macroeconomic features, equity bond markets on one hand, you've got client, the kind of risk-on risk-off sentiment, I think, is important. You've got volatility levels in FX and agency lending. And so those we have to live through and navigate through. And sometimes those will come in more strongly and sometimes less.

因此，發揮作用的一部分是這些宏觀經濟特徵，一方面是股票債券市場，你有客戶，我認為這種風險規避情緒很重要。外匯和機構貸款存在波動水準。因此，我們必須經歷並穿越這些。有時這些影響會更強烈，有時會更少。

And then I think finally, the piece that we do need to deliver on, Steve, is the part that we can control, which is sales, it's retention. And we've been very clear about our goals and our targets very purposely because that's where we think we need to hold ourselves particularly accountable and where you can hold us accountable. And there's a version of goals and targets in servicing. We spent a little extra time there. But if you go through our line of businesses, we've got similar kinds of goals area by area, and that's on us to deliver, which will help power us through. But the cyclical elements will still come and go.

最後，我認為，史蒂夫，我們確實需要交付的部分是我們可以控制的部分，即銷售，即保留。我們非常明確我們的目標和目的，因為這是我們認為我們需要對自己特別負責的地方，也是你們可以讓我們承擔責任的地方。並且有一個版本的服務目標和目標。我們在那裡度過了一些額外的時間。但如果你仔細觀察我們的業務線，你會發現我們每個領域都有類似的目標，這就是我們要實現的目標，這將有助於我們度過難關。但周期性因素仍然會來來去去。

Eric. That's really helpful color. Just one quick follow-up for me. What's the assumed timing for the large client transition. Just wanted to get a sense as to whether that's reflected in the 1Q servicing fee guide or you're expecting that later in the year?

埃里克.這真是有用的顏色。對我來說只是一個快速跟進。大客戶過渡的假設時間是？只是想了解這是否反映在第一季服務費指南中，或者您預計今年晚些時候會反映這一情況？

Let me see how -- let me try to describe this to you in a couple of ways and to be helpful. At this point, on a quarterly run rate basis, and I say that very specifically, we're about halfway through the transition, including a piece that came out in the fourth quarter. So we're halfway through on a quarterly run rate basis. We also, though, have to think about it on a fiscal year-on-year basis. And the way I would describe it on a fiscal year-on-year basis, remember, we said this was worth about 2 percentage points of total fees.

讓我看看如何 - 讓我嘗試用幾種方式向您描述這一點並提供幫助。此時，以季度運行率為基礎，我非常具體地說，我們已經完成了大約一半的過渡，包括第四季度推出的一項內容。因此，按季度運行率計算，我們已完成一半。不過，我們也必須在逐年財政基礎上考慮這個問題。請記住，我在財年同比基礎上描述它的方式是，我們說這大約佔總費用的 2 個百分點。

That's what we've disclosed in our Qs and Ks. About 1/4 of that fiscally has come out through the end of '23, about half of it will come out through '24 and about another quarter in '25. So it just takes time to play through. And so we did include that headwind in the first quarter '24 versus first quarter '23 guide and it is important to that guide. And so our guide includes that, and you've got the net guide as a result.

這就是我們在 Q 和 K 中所揭露的內容。其中約 1/4 的財政支出將在 23 年末完成，大約一半將在 24 年完成，另外約四分之一將在 25 年完成。所以只是需要時間玩。因此，我們確實將這種逆風納入了 24 年第一季與 23 年第一季的指南中，這對該指南很重要。因此，我們的指南包含了這些內容，您就得到了網路指南。

Your next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

A very quick follow-up. I know the call has gone on so long. I heard you talk about just the right level of deposits between $200 billion and $210 billion, did you say that you expect the growth we saw in fourth quarter to reverse in 1Q as we think about the deposits shake out?

非常快速的跟進。我知道這個電話已經打了很久了。我聽說您談到了 2000 億美元至 2100 億美元之間的適當存款水平，您是否表示，考慮到存款的減少，您預計第四季度的增長將在第一季度逆轉？

Ebrahim, it's Eric. No. What I said is that we think we'll operate in the $200 billion to $210 billion range in the first quarter, second, through the year. We expect that to be where we land. I think in fourth quarter on average, right, remember, we also, I think, talked a little bit about the months, we talked there's in-the-period data, which is very volatile. But on average, we ended up at, I think, around $207 billion for the quarter in 4Q.

易卜拉欣，我是艾瑞克。不。我所說的是，我們認為第一季、第二季乃至全年的營運規模將在 2,000 億至 2,100 億美元之間。我們希望這就是我們著陸的地方。我認為平均而言，在第四季度，對，記住，我認為我們也討論了一些關於月份的問題，我們談到了期間數據，這些數據非常不穩定。但我認為，平均而言，我們第四季的營收約為 2,070 億美元。

And so we think roughly flattish deposits into 1Q. It's just hard to tell. There's seasonality at year-end. There is -- there tends to be a low point in February, and then you've got cash building for tax purposes into March. But I'd call it flattish in the scheme of things but with a range of -- with a range around that.

因此，我們認為第一季的存款大致持平。這很難說。年底有季節性。二月往往會出現一個低點，然後你就可以在三月為稅收目的累積現金。但我認為它在事物的計劃上是扁平的，但有一個範圍——圍繞這個範圍。

And just a bigger picture question around NIB mix and NII, do we need to get to a point where QT is short, the Fed is done with cutting rates before we see NII stabilize and maybe the deposit mix shift stabilize as well? Like do we need to get to that point? Or can it happen sooner than that?

關於 NIB 組合和 NII 的一個更大的問題是，我們是否需要達到 QT 較短、聯準會完成降息後才能看到 NII 穩定以及存款組合變化也穩定的程度？就像我們需要達到這一點嗎？或者它可以比這更早發生嗎？

It's a fair question. My instinct on this is NIB will begin to stabilize sometime in 2024 by -- we think sometime in the by the middle of the year or third quarter. You've kind of at that point, I'll call it, burn through the largest accounts, those are the ones that kind of on a -- since its peak are down 75% NIB. The smallest accounts are down by about 25% since the peak, and those were seeing stabilize more and more.

這是一個公平的問題。我的直覺是，NIB 將在 2024 年的某個時候開始穩定——我們認為是在今年年中或第三季的某個時候。到了那個時候，我會稱之為燒毀最大的帳戶，這些帳戶在高峰期下降了 75% 的 NIB。最小的帳戶自高峰以來下降了約 25%，而且這些帳戶越來越穩定。

So I think we'll see some stability in NIB because clients and funds and fund boards have made their decisions, especially the ones that have $1 million or $2 million in an account, some of them just don't want to deal with the tax reporting, and so you'll get to some stabilization. So we think that will kind of stabilize.

因此，我認為我們會看到NIB 保持一定的穩定性，因為客戶、基金和基金委員會已經做出了決定，特別是那些帳戶中有100 萬美元或200 萬美元的人，其中一些人只是不想處理稅收報告，這樣你就會穩定下來。所以我們認為這將會穩定下來。

I think the broader question on NII will then come with how -- what -- well, and at that point, I think deposit betas kind of tend to stabilize as well. So I think at that point, in the second half of next year, the real question is what is the direction of interest rates on the front end. So very important question, which is what's going to -- what's -- where is the long end going to go? And where is the long end going to go in the U.S. versus in the international markets. And that is particularly important to the banking sector because with some amount of steepness in the yield curve, and I -- it's hard to remember when we've had steepness, it's been a while, some amount of steepness in the yield curve is quite accretive to NII, and you expect in a good economy to have some. And so that will be a feature.

我認為關於 NII 的更廣泛的問題將是如何——什麼——好吧，到那時，我認為存款貝塔值也趨於穩定。所以我認為，到了明年下半年，真正的問題是前端利率的方向是什麼。所以非常重要的問題是，長期的結果將走向何方？與國際市場相比，美國的長期前景將何去何從？這對銀行業尤其重要，因為收益率曲線有一定程度的陡峭，我很難記得何時出現陡峭，已經有一段時間了，收益率曲線有一定程度的陡峭是相當大的。NII 會增加，並且您期望在經濟良好的情況下會有一些增加。所以這將是一個特點。

So there's a series of elements that will come through, and it's hard to I think, to, as a result, predict too precisely.

因此，將會出現一系列因素，因此我認為很難做出過於準確的預測。

Your next question comes from Ryan Kenny Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自瑞恩·肯尼·摩根士丹利。

Just a follow-up on the capital side. So you had an 11.6% CET1 ratio. That was a nice improvement sequentially. It looks like that was driven mostly by $6 billion of lower RWA. Can you just help us impact the RWA dynamics a bit? What drove the optimization? And then you also mentioned RWA could be higher this year to support various businesses. Does that mean that the optimization was just temporary?

只是資本方面的後續。所以你的 CET1 比率為 11.6%。這是一個很好的連續改進。看起來這主要是由 60 億美元的 RWA 下降所推動的。您能幫助我們稍微影響一下 RWA 動態嗎？是什麼推動了優化？然後您還提到今年 RWA 可能會更高，以支援各種業務。這是否意味著優化只是暫時的？

Sure. It's Eric. Let me describe it in a couple of different ways. We're all -- every bank tries to manage RWA just because it's part of our capital requirements and returns. And we try to report it carefully and we take -- we do it fully to the rules, as you'd expect. What tends to create the volatility because it's a spot measure, it's a one day of the quarter, 1 out of 90-day measure is the market factors. Right? So if you've got an FX or in any of the trading businesses, if you've got a forward book or even a vanilla derivative book, you've got counterparty exposures. You've got that are affected in particular by the currency pairs. And as those move around in the last week of the quarter, you might be in the money or out of the money in those positions and those directly because of how to standardize RWA mathematics work, just goes right through RWA. So that could create a swing of $4 billion, $5 billion on the size of our RWAs. Our RWAs is about 100 -- we printed around $112 billion. About half of that is in the markets area.

當然。是埃里克。讓我用幾種不同的方式來描述它。我們所有人——每家銀行都試圖管理 RWA，只是因為它是我們資本要求和回報的一部分。我們盡力仔細報告，我們完全按照規則行事，正如您所期望的那樣。造成波動的因素是市場因素，因為它是現貨指標，是季度中的某一天，90 天指標中的 1 個是市場因素。正確的？因此，如果您有外匯或任何交易業務，如果您有遠期帳簿甚至普通衍生品帳簿，那麼您就有對手方風險敞口。尤其是受到貨幣對的影響。隨著這些在季度最後一周的變動，您可能在這些職位上處於賺錢狀態或處於虧損狀態，而那些直接由於如何標準化 RWA 數學工作而直接通過 RWA 的情況可能會發生。因此，我們的 RWA 規模可能會產生 40 億至 50 億美元的波動。我們的 RWA 約為 100——我們印了大約 1120 億美元。其中約一半位於市場區域。

And so there's a good bit of variability, and that's literally what happens. And so sometimes it will end up low, sometimes it will end up high. If you look at Page 4 -- Page 14 of the presentation materials, you'll see low point of $107 billion a year ago in RWA, you'll see a higher point of $118 billion last quarter and quite a bit of that is driven by just those market factors playing through into the calculations that we have. And then in addition to that, if you're on a loan book like we do, you'll have overdrafts. Overdrafts, take RWA as well. And so we also saw some amount of benefit there this quarter.

因此存在很大的可變性，這就是實際發生的情況。所以有時它會走低，有時會走高。如果您查看演示材料的第4 頁- 第14 頁，您會看到一年前RWA 的低點為1070 億美元，您會看到上個季度的高點1180 億美元，其中相當一部分是由驅動因素推動的正是這些市場因素影響了我們的計算。除此之外，如果你跟我們一樣有貸款簿，你就會透支。透支，也拿RWA。因此，本季我們也看到了一些好處。

I think the way I would describe the go-forward view is that we ended up particularly low this quarter. We said by it could be $6 billion, $7 billion lower than expected. What would par be, maybe I'll describe it that way, going forward, it might be $118 billion. It might be $120 billion. But you've got to put a plus $5 billion, minus $5 billion band around that. And so we'll -- what we want to do is we want to take -- we want to gently continue to reinvest capital into our businesses because these FX businesses now that we have, have good returns. We've managed them well. They've got 10%, 12% returns in many cases. The securities finance businesses typically are high single-digit return businesses, but that's healthy, and it's very connected to the servicing and the administrative fee business that we have and important to our clients.

我認為我描述未來觀點的方式是，我們本季的業績特別低。我們說可能是 60 億美元，比預期低 70 億美元。大概是多少，也許我會這樣描述，展望未來，可能是 1,180 億美元。可能是1200億美元。但你必須在此基礎上加 50 億美元，減 50 億美元。因此，我們想要做的就是我們想要繼續溫和地將資本再投資到我們的業務中，因為我們現在擁有的這些外匯業務具有良好的回報。我們把它們管理得很好。在很多情況下，他們的回報率為 10%、12%。證券金融業務通常是高個位數回報業務，但這是健康的，它與我們擁有的服務和管理費業務密切相關，對我們的客戶很重要。

And so our view is that these are ways for us to solidify and expand and deepen our relationship with clients. And so we'll gently add RWA each year. How much do we add? We add a few billion dollars, $3 billion to $5 billion of more RWA each year perhaps. But there'll be some volatility around that. And that will be a part of the way we drive our organic growth. We're a high return bank, that's for sure. But we will -- we do want to put some of our capital to work for core organic growth reasons.

因此，我們認為這些是我們鞏固、擴大和加深與客戶關係的方法。因此，我們每年都會溫和地添加 RWA。我們加多少？我們每年可能增加數十億美元、30 億至 50 億美元的 RWA。但這會存在一些波動。這將成為我們推動有機成長的一部分。我們是一家高回報銀行，這是肯定的。但我們確實希望將一些資本用於核心的有機成長。

Your next question comes from Mike Brown with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Mike Brown。

I guess I noticed that you saw record cash net inflows in 2023. And you mentioned that you actually took share in the institutional money market space. As we head into a declining rate environment here, I guess what's your expectation about how these cash and money fund assets could trend from here? I guess historically institutional money markets, they can act quite differently than retail. So I guess, once the Fed begins to reduce rates here, what are you thinking about in terms of the path of the flows out of money funds could you actually still see some money fund inflows from institutional investors?

我想我注意到您在 2023 年看到了創紀錄的現金淨流入。您提到您實際上在機構貨幣市場領域佔據了份額。當我們進入利率下降的環境時，我想您對這些現金和貨幣基金資產的趨勢有何期望？我想從歷史上看，機構貨幣市場的表現可能與零售市場截然不同。所以我想，一旦聯準會開始降息，您在考慮貨幣基金的流出路徑時，您是否仍然會看到一些來自機構投資者的貨幣基金流入？

Yes. Mike, it's a good question and one we think about all the time. So part of way we've attracted more money market funds going back to one of my prior answers is we just have a broader client base. So -- and that helps. We've gained market share, not just in terms of assets, but we've just attracted more clients. And once you have them, whether the balances go up or down, you typically have them.

是的。麥克，這是一個很好的問題，也是我們一直在思考的問題。因此，我們吸引更多貨幣市場基金的部分原因是我們擁有更廣泛的客戶群。回到我之前的答案之一。所以——這很有幫助。我們不僅在資產方面獲得了市場份額，而且還吸引了更多客戶。一旦你擁有它們，無論餘額增加還是減少，你通常都會擁有它們。

I think historically, what's happened in terms -- and you've got to look back in history now because we haven't had this kind of a marketplace. But the really sophisticated holders of institutional money market funds tend to hang on, Right? Because the fund itself, depending on its duration, and there is a little bit of duration in it, actually lags -- so it's usually the opposite when rates are rising, the very sophisticated holders are toggling in and out depending on whether they see opportunities to go direct.

我認為從歷史上看，發生了什麼事——你現在必須回顧歷史，因為我們還沒有這樣的市場。但真正成熟的機構貨幣市場基金持有者往往會堅持下去，對吧？因為基金本身，根據其久期，而且有一點久期，實際上是滯後的——所以當利率上升時，情況通常相反，非常老練的持有者會根據他們是否看到機會來進出。直接去。

Just given the nature of our client base, we don't see a lot of that activity. So we expect to keep them, and it really will be around where do their balances go and they needed for some -- or do they see more attractive investment opportunities. I would expect that we would see if indeed we see a continued risk on environment that itself will cause a little bit of reallocation (inaudible) institutional money market funds because saying that everybody what everybody is talking about that there's so much parked on the sidelines, well, a lot of it is parked here.

鑑於我們客戶群的性質，我們沒有看到很多此類活動。因此，我們希望保留它們，這實際上將取決於他們的餘額去向以及他們需要一些餘額，或者他們是否看到了更有吸引力的投資機會。我希望我們能看到，我們是否確實看到了環境方面的持續風險，這本身就會導致一些機構貨幣市場基金的重新分配（聽不清楚），因為每個人都在談論每個人都在談論的事情，有太多的資金處於觀望狀態，嗯，很多車都停在這裡。

But I would go back to where I began the answer, which is it really is about establishing more client relationships, servicing them very well and then continue to grow the number of clients based on that track record.

但我會回到我開始回答的地方，這實際上是建立更多的客戶關係，為他們提供良好的服務，然後根據記錄繼續增加客戶數量。

Okay. Great. The $5 billion share buyback authorization that certainly was a big number. Eric, as you just alluded to in the last question, there's a lot of puts and takes to consider on the capital front in 2024 and into 2025. I guess my question is really just why come with such a large authorization? You're targeting 100% payout ratio. So this would seem to me that you certainly would not need all of that in 2024. It is this just a desire to have kind of a big authorization in place for a multiyear horizon or just to have more flexibility over time. Just love to hear a little bit more about that.

好的。偉大的。 50 億美元的股票回購授權無疑是一個很大的數字。 Eric，正如您在上一個問題中提到的，2024 年和 2025 年的資本方面有很多看跌期權和看跌期權需要考慮。我想我的問題實際上是為什麼要獲得如此大的授權？您的目標是 100% 的支付率。因此，在我看來，到 2024 年，您肯定不需要所有這些。這只是一種願望，希望在多年範圍內獲得重大授權，或者只是希望隨著時間的推移擁有更大的靈活性。只是喜歡聽到更多有關此的信息。

Mike, it's Eric. The background here is that the industry has evolved, I would say, pre CCAR, which is a long time ago, there used to be open-ended authorizations in the banking sector. Once we got into CCAR, remember, there was a very defined annual amount of buybacks that you had to submit. In fact, you had to submit the first year and the second year, and there was a lot of making sure that what you submitted within the Fed CCAR process was actually what you did because I wanted to keep consistency with that. And so the industry moved towards quite a bit of disclosure on a 1-year basis as a result.

麥克，是埃里克。這裡的背景是，我想說，在 CCAR 之前，這個行業已經發展了，很久以前，銀行業曾經有開放式授權。請記住，一旦我們進入 CCAR，您必須提交非常明確的年度回購金額。事實上，你必須提交第一年和第二年的信息，並且需要做很多工作來確保你在美聯儲 CCAR 流程中提交的內容實際上是你所做的，因為我想與這一點保持一致。因此，該行業在一年內進行了大量的披露。

And if you recall, a lot of those 1-year disclosures happened right after CCAR was announced at the either at the end of June or in the second quarter earnings in July. What we've seen as we've scanned at least the banking, our peer banks, the G-SIB, the large U.S. regionals is now that CCAR is -- it's still an annual process, but it's really with the SCB and some of the refinements to it, it's really an ongoing process. And what we've realized is that I'd say more than 3/4 of our peers, you probably know, have actually moved to open-ended programs. Over the last 1 year, 1.5 years. And so we just wanted to conform to that. As a result, this one is multiyear, it's open-ended and we'll take it from there.

如果你還記得的話，很多一年期的揭露都是在 CCAR 於 6 月底或 7 月的第二季財報公佈後立即進行的。當我們至少掃描了銀行業、我們的同業銀行、G-SIB、美國大型地區銀行時，我們發現 CCAR 仍然是一個年度流程，但實際上是與 SCB 和一些機構一起進行的。對其進行改進，這實際上是一個持續的過程。我們已經意識到，你可能知道，我想說超過 3/4 的同行實際上已經轉向開放式專案。過去1年，1.5年。所以我們只是想遵守這一點。因此，這是一個多年期的、開放式的，我們將從那裡開始。

Your next question comes from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

Well, no good deed goes unpunished $5 billion buyback to that last question. But are you assuming that Basel III gets modified and if Basel III didn't exist, how much higher would that $5 billion number be? And at what price do you say buybacks don't make so much sense anymore?

好吧，對於最後一個問題，50 億美元的回購是有善報的。但您是否假設《巴塞爾協議 III》進行了修改，如果巴塞爾協議 III 不存在，那麼 50 億美元的數字會高出多少？您認為回購到什麼價格就不再有意義了？

Mike, maybe I'll start on the Basel III. I think it's -- where Basel III comes out is very uncertain at this point. The comment period ended January 16. I don't know how many millions of pages were submitted, but there's a lot to be evaluated there. And you all know the various pressure and response that the regulators are getting on this. So it's very hard to tell. I don't know that we would have changed the authorization if we had perfect clarity on where it was coming out, it was a factor, but it's not like we have a -- we think it's absolutely going to be this and therefore. So I hope that helps.

麥克，也許我會從巴塞爾 III 開始。我認為目前巴塞爾協議 III 的推出還非常不確定。評論期於 1 月 16 日結束。我不知道提交了多少百萬頁，但有很多東西需要評估。大家都知道監管機構對此面臨的各種壓力和反應。所以很難說。我不知道如果我們完全清楚授權的出處，我們是否會改變授權，這是一個因素，但我們並不認為——我們認為絕對會是這樣，因此。所以我希望這會有所幫助。

Go ahead, Mike.

繼續吧，麥克。

No, just so where your base case, what is the RWA inflation, the most recent updates. We've gotten a few changes here during earnings season due to Basel III?

不，只是你的基本情況，RWA 通貨膨脹是多少，最近的更新。由於巴塞爾協議 III，我們在財報季期間發生了一些變化？

Yes, Mike, let me describe it this way. The headline that we've previously disclosed for the ANPR as it's written is Basel RWA increase for us at about 15%. So that's what we've shared. I think what we said at the time, and we actually believe even more so now is that it will come in at a portion of that. There's been lots of discussion around, for example, energy tax credits, some of the arcane parts of Basel and how that impacts public policy mortgages, which were not really affected on. There's much more discussion about operational risk literally over the last few months, and that would make us quite optimistic that the increases would be relatively small.

是的，麥克，讓我這樣描述一下。我們先前揭露的 ANPR 的標題是巴塞爾 RWA 成長約 15%。這就是我們分享的內容。我認為我們當時所說的，而且我們現在實際上更相信的是，它將成為其中的一部分。圍繞著能源稅收抵免、巴塞爾的一些神秘部分以及這如何影響公共政策抵押貸款等問題進行了很多討論，但這些討論並沒有真正受到影響。在過去的幾個月裡，關於操作風險的討論越來越多，這讓我們非常樂觀地認為增加的幅度將相對較小。

So we've not updated it because it's just -- you got to -- there's a menu out there, but we're encouraged. We think the regulators are trying to navigate public policy and on one hand and the right level of capital in the banking system but we think that the direction of the discussions, in particular, over the last few months are constructive.

所以我們沒有更新它，因為它只是——你必須——有一個菜單，但我們受到鼓勵。我們認為監管機構一方面正在努力引導公共政策，另一方面也在銀行體系中調整適當的資本水平，但我們認為討論的方向，特別是過去幾個月的討論方向是建設性的。

Your next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Most of the questions have been asked and answered. Can you hear me?

大多數問題已被提出並得到解答。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. Most of questions have been answered. Just one quick one on securities portfolio repositioning. I guess, Eric, what's the desire to potentially do more of those and potentially take losses and look at the sort of the capital usage for doing that and enhancing NII and NIM more versus share buybacks?

好的。偉大的。大多數問題已經得到解答。簡單介紹一下證券投資組合的重新定位。我想，埃里克，你是否希望做更多這樣的事情，並可能承擔損失，並考慮這樣做的資本用途，以及與股票回購相比，更多地增強 NII 和 NIM？

Brian, it's Eric. It's something that we continue to think about. I think every bank continues to think about, we included. We're just continuing to just work through how do we feel about the rate levels that we're at, in particular on the up on the curve. We are conscious of that, both in the U.S. and in the international areas. We've got positions in pounds sterling and euros and so forth. So we'll just continue to evaluate it. I think as you indicated from your question, part of the reason we repositioned last year in the third quarter was around rate position. We thought it was a very good entry point. In retrospect, we timed that quite well. So we were quite pleased. And I think we felt like we came out ahead economically with the trade because we remember, we took out some bonds, but also reinvested both in the belly of the curve and overnight. So that was constructive.

布萊恩，我是艾瑞克。這是我們繼續思考的事情。我認為每家銀行都在繼續思考，包括我們。我們只是繼續研究我們對當前利率水準的看法，特別是在曲線上升的情況下。無論是在美國還是國際領域，我們都意識到了這一點。我們有英鎊和歐元等的部位。所以我們將繼續評估它。我認為正如您從問題中指出的那樣，我們去年第三季重新定位的部分原因是利率位置。我們認為這是一個非常好的切入點。回想起來，我們的時機非常好。所以我們非常高興。我認為我們感覺我們在交易中在經濟上取得了領先，因為我們記得，我們​​購買了一些債券，但也對曲線的腹部和隔夜進行了再投資。所以這是有建設性的。

And we'll also keep an eye on. We don't have a lot of capital-intensive securities. We've always had a very vanilla book. So there's not an enormous capital motivation, but we'll selectively look at it. And see if it might make sense. But I think we're like many others. It's one of the things we keep an eye on.

我們也會持續關注。我們沒有很多資本密集型證券。我們一直有一本非常普通的書。因此，不存在巨大的資本動機，但我們會選擇性地關注它。看看它是否有意義。但我認為我們和其他許多人一樣。這是我們密切關注的事情之一。

Your next question comes from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Rob Wildhack。

I wanted to ask about the fee operating leverage target for this year. Hypothetically, let's say, fees come in better than you expect, would you anticipate dropping that down to the bottom line or reinvesting it? And maybe the same question in reverse, fees come in lower than expected. What kind of room is there on the expense side to preserve your fee operating leverage target?

我想問今年的費用營運槓桿目標。假設，費用比您預期的要好，您會預期將其降至底線或進行再投資嗎？也許同樣的問題反過來說，費用低於預期。費用方面有多大的空間來維持您的費用營運槓桿目標？

Yes, Rob, why don't I start on that. We feel like we've done a very good job this year in terms of -- I'm sorry, in 2023, focusing on BAU cost reduction to help finance and create a very sizable investment pool. Eric walked you through that. So Obviously, if fees are up dramatically more than expected, there are some revenue-related expenses, but I wouldn't foresee I think we've got a lot to invest and execute against and I really won't want to get through that. On the margin, there might be a few things that we would do, but the vast majority of it will go to the bottom line.

是的，羅布，我為什麼不開始呢？我們覺得今年我們在以下方面做得非常好——對不起，在 2023 年，重點是降低 BAU 成本，以幫助融資並創建一個非常龐大的投資池。艾瑞克（Eric）向您介紹了這一點。所以顯然，如果費用大幅上漲超過預期，就會有一些與收入相關的費用，但我不會預見到，我認為我們有很多投資和執行的對象，我真的不想經歷這個。在邊際上，我們可能會做一些事情，但絕大多數都會影響利潤。

On the -- in the case of the -- if the opposite occurs, whatever, a terrible market, geopolitical issues flare and you've just got a very different environment than any one of us anticipate. Again, we'd probably -- you'd see some revenue-related expenses come down naturally, which would help. I think at least my initial instinct would be to try and preserve the investments and look at is there any more to do on BAU, but then obviously, some of these -- we would -- we've got a pecking order for our investments in terms of priorities. And if it came to that, we defer them.

在這種情況下，如果發生相反的情況，無論如何，市場會變得糟糕，地緣政治問題就會爆發，你就會遇到一個與我們任何人預期都非常不同的環境。同樣，我們可能會看到一些與收入相關的支出自然下降，這會有所幫助。我認為至少我最初的本能是嘗試保留投資，看看 BAU 上是否還有更多要做的事情，但顯然，其中一些——我們會——我們的投資有一個優先順序就優先事項而言。如果事情真的發生了，我們就會延後。

And Rob, it's Eric. I would just add that we've got a pretty industrial productivity plan for this year. Part of that was the repositioning that we announced. But 2/3 of the roles impacted are really around delayering and simplifying State Street. We're actually taking our spans of control in some areas like operations from 5:1 to 8:1. We're taking standard controls in the business and staff functions in some cases, from 3:1 to 5:1, right? So -- and the benefit of that is it actually brings our teams -- our client teams and operational teams even closer to our clients, right? And some of what we're doing with the joint venture consolidation is a catalyst for that because, in some cases, we had too many handoffs and now we can simplify processes and again, bring them closer to our clients.

羅布，是埃里克。我想補充一點，今年我們有一個相當不錯的工業生產力計劃。其中一部分是我們宣布的重新定位。但 2/3 受影響的角色實際上是在推遲和簡化道富銀行。實際上，我們正​​在將某些領域的控制範圍（例如營運）從 5:1 調整為 8:1。在某些情況下，我們對業務和員工職能採取標準控制，從 3:1 到 5:1，對嗎？那麼，這樣做的好處是，它實際上使我們的團隊、我們的客戶團隊和營運團隊更接近我們的客戶，對嗎？我們在合資企業合併方面所做的一些事情是催化劑，因為在某些情況下，我們有太多的交接，現在我們可以簡化流程，再次拉近他們與客戶的距離。

So there's some real structural changes there. And what we do want to do is make sure we see those through. As Ron mentioned, there's always a little more, we'll look at on the margin. And it -- but we want to be careful. We want to do this right. But on the margin, you continue to work on vendors and so forth, if you look at performance-based incentive compensation, there are always other smaller levers. But we're pretty -- I think we've got a nice work set out and a lot to do. And I think we've got real confidence that this is, I think, year probably 5. I don't think we name our programs with annual versions. But this is probably a year 5 of productivity program and should really deliver quite a bit.

所以那裡有一些真正的結構性變化。我們真正想做的是確保我們能夠完成這些任務。正如羅恩所提到的，總是會有更多的東西，我們會在邊際上考慮。但我們要小心。我們希望把這件事做好。但在邊際上，你繼續與供應商等合作，如果你考慮基於績效的激勵薪酬，總會有其他較小的槓桿。但我們很漂亮——我認為我們已經安排好了工作，還有很多工作要做。我認為我們有真正的信心，我認為這可能是第五年。我認為我們不會用年度版本來命名我們的計畫。但這可能是生產力計畫的第五年，應該會達到相當大的成果。

And then on the regulatory front, there was some commentary last week from the FDIC around regulations for large index fund providers. I'm curious if you have any thoughts there on how that can potentially impact your business?

然後在監管方面，上週 FDIC 就大型指數基金提供者的監管發表了一些評論。我很好奇您是否對此有什麼想法可能會對您的業務產生影響？

From the FDIC. Yes, I didn't see this, Rob. Curious as to the FDIC's role in index funds. I wonder what Vanguard has to say about that. So I'm just not familiar with it, Rob.

來自聯邦存款保險公司。是的，我沒有看到這個，羅布。對 FDIC 在指數基金中的作用感到好奇。我想知道先鋒集團對此有何評論。所以我只是不熟悉它，羅布。

Okay. I can send it over to you later.

好的。我可以稍後發給你。

Yes. Why don't we follow up off-line, Rob, just send it through to Ilene and the team.

是的。羅布，我們為什麼不離線跟進，直接發送給艾琳和團隊。

Yes, it could be, Rob, that GA is already on this. I just haven't seen that.

是的，Rob，GA 可能已經在處理這個問題了。我只是沒見過。

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining the call.

好的，謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。