道富銀行 (STT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to State Street Corporation's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's discussion is being broadcasted live on State Street's website at investors.statestreet.com. This conference call is also being recorded for replay. State Street's conference call is copyrighted, and all rights are reserved. This call may not be recorded or rebroadcast for distribution in whole or in part without the expressed written authorization from State Street Corporation. The only authorized broadcast of this call will be housed on the State Street website.

早安，歡迎參加道富銀行 2024 年第一季財報電話會議及網路廣播。今天的討論將在道富銀行網站 Investors.statestreet.com 上進行現場直播。這次電話會議也被錄音以供重播。道富銀行的電話會議受版權保護，並保留所有權利。未經道富公司明確書面授權，不得對本次通話進行全部或部分錄音或轉播。本次電話會議的唯一授權廣播將在道富銀行網站上進行。

Now I would like to introduce Ilene Fiszel Bieler, Global Head of Investor Relations at State Street. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹道富銀行投資者關係全球主管艾琳‧菲澤爾‧比勒(Ilene Fiszel Bieler)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. On our call today, our CEO, Ron O'Hanley, will speak first. Then Eric Aboaf, our CFO, will take you through our first quarter of 2024 earnings slide presentation, which is available for download in the Investor Relations section of our website, investors.statestreet.com. Afterwards, we'll be happy to take questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。早安，感謝大家加入我們。在今天的電話會議上，我們的執行長 Ron O'Hanley 將首先發言。然後，我們的財務長 Eric Aboaf 將向您介紹我們的2024 年第一季度收益幻燈片演示文稿，該幻燈片演示文稿可在我們網站Investors.statestreet.com 的投資者關係部分下載。之後，我們將很樂意回答問題。 （操作員說明）

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation will include results presented on a basis that excludes or adjusts one or more items from GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP or regulatory measure are available in the appendix to our slide presentation, also available on the IR section of our website.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的演示將包括在排除或調整 GAAP 中的一項或多項項目的基礎上呈現的結果。這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 或監管衡量標準的對帳可在我們幻燈片簡報的附錄中找到，也可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

In addition, today's presentation will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those statements due to a variety of important factors, such as those factors referenced in our discussion today and in our SEC filings, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them, even if our views change.

此外，今天的演示將包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素，例如我們今天的討論和 SEC 文件中提到的因素，包括我們 10-K 表格中的風險因素，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。我們的前瞻性聲明僅代表今天的情況，即使我們的觀點發生變化，我們也不承擔任何更新這些聲明的義務。

Now let me turn it over to Ron.

現在讓我把它交給榮恩。

Thank you, Ilene, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we released our first quarter financial results. We had a strong start to the year with our results demonstrating the breadth of our client franchise, the efficacy of our strategy and our focus on execution. We reported both fee and total revenue growth, all while continuing to invest meaningfully in our business and controlling underlying expenses. Excluding notable items, we delivered both positive fee and total operating leverage as well as solid EPS growth in Q1 relative to the year-ago period.

謝謝艾琳，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們發布了第一季財務業績。今年我們取得了良好的開局，我們的業績證明了我們客戶群的廣度、我們策略的有效性以及我們對執行的重視。我們報告了費用和總收入的成長，同時繼續對我們的業務進行有意義的投資並控制基本費用。排除值得注意的項目，我們在第一季實現了與去年同期相比的正費用和總營運槓桿以及穩健的每股盈餘成長。

The first quarter was an important milestone. We have detailed our strategic priorities for 2024, including the growth initiatives we are undertaking across each of our business areas as we continue to both invest in our capabilities and also target further productivity gains. Guided by our purpose to help create better outcomes for the world's investors and the people they serve, our 4 strategic priorities are aimed at continuing to extend our competitive advantage while delivering positive fee operating leverage, excluding notable items in 2024. These 2024 priorities are: growing fee revenue, extending our leadership in our markets in financing and global advisers franchises, enhancing and optimizing our operating model and continuing to differentiate our business through innovative client solutions and technology-led capabilities to support business growth.

第一季是一個重要的里程碑。我們詳細介紹了 2024 年的策略重點，包括我們在每個業務領域採取的成長舉措，因為我們繼續投資於我們的能力，並以進一步提高生產力為目標。我們的宗旨是幫助世界投資者及其服務的人們創造更好的成果，我們的4 項策略重點旨在繼續擴大我們的競爭優勢，同時提供積極的費用營運槓桿（不包括2024 年值得注意的項目）。業務成長，使我們的業務脫穎而出。

We remain intensely focused on executing against these strategic priorities, particularly in a dynamic operating environment in which financial market expectations continue to change significantly. For example, as inflation remains elevated and economic data continued to be robust, investors push back their expectation for the timing of central bank rate cuts and treasury yields increased during the first quarter. Despite this, global equity markets performed strongly and volatility remained muted with many indices setting records as fears of a hard economic landing ceded and optimism surrounding the potential economic benefit from artificial intelligence continued in Q1.

我們仍然高度關注執行這些策略重點，特別是在金融市場預期持續發生重大變化的動態營運環境中。例如，由於通膨持續高企，經濟數據持續強勁，投資人推遲了對央行降息時機的預期，第一季公債殖利率上升。儘管如此，全球股市表現強勁，波動性依然溫和，許多指數創下歷史新高，因為對經濟硬著陸的擔憂消退，而對人工智慧潛在經濟利益的樂觀情緒在第一季持續存在。

Turning to Slide 3 of our investor presentation. I will review our first quarter highlights before Eric takes you through the quarter in more detail. Beginning with our financial performance. 2024 started strongly. Year-over-year, we produced both positive fee and total operating leverage as well as good EPS growth, excluding notable items. First quarter EPS was $1.37 or $1.69, excluding a notable item related to the increase to the FDIC special assessment. Underlying year-over-year EPS growth was supported by total fee revenue growth and continued common share repurchases, which more than offset the impact of lower NII on total revenue. Underlying expenses continue to be well controlled, supported by our ongoing productivity efforts with first quarter expenses increasing just 1% year-over-year, excluding notable items, even as we have increased the level of investments in our business.

轉向我們的投資者簡報的幻燈片 3。在艾瑞克向您詳細介紹該季度之前，我將回顧我們第一季的亮點。從我們的財務表現開始。 2024 年開局強勁。與去年同期相比，我們產生了正的費用和總營運槓桿以及良好的每股盈餘成長（不包括值得注意的項目）。第一季每股收益為 1.37 美元或 1.69 美元，不包括與 FDIC 特別評估增加相關的顯著項目。每股盈餘的年增率得益於總費用收入的成長和持續的普通股回購，這完全抵銷了NII下降對總收入的影響。在我們持續的生產力努力的支持下，基本費用繼續得到良好控制，第一季費用同比僅增長 1%（不包括值得注意的項目），儘管我們增加了業務投資水平。

Turning to our business momentum, which you can see on the middle of the slide. We continue to make progress across our client franchise in generating better fee revenue growth. Within asset services, AUC/A increased to a record $43.9 trillion. We generated asset servicing AUC/A wins of $474 billion in Q1, supported by key wins in both North America and Europe. Servicing fee revenue wins totaled $67 million. After hitting our full year sales target of $300 million in 2023, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our increased servicing fee revenue sales goal of $350 million to $400 million in 2024.

轉向我們的業務勢頭，您可以在幻燈片中間看到。我們繼續在我們的客戶特許經營中取得進展，以實現更好的費用收入成長。在資產服務領域，AUC/A 增至創紀錄的 43.9 兆美元。在北美和歐洲的關鍵勝利的支持下，我們在第一季取得了 4,740 億美元的資產服務 AUC/A 勝利。服務費收入總計 6700 萬美元。在實現 2023 年 3 億美元的全年銷售目標後，我們仍有信心在 2024 年實現 3.5 億至 4 億美元的服務費收入銷售目標。

Our priority to grow fee revenue this year is underpinned by a strategy of leading with service excellence and driving stronger back-office sales differentiating with our State Street Alpha and private markets platforms. Our 2 new Alpha mandate wins this quarter demonstrate our ability to execute on this strategy while also showcasing the clear competitive advantage and differentiation that Alpha creates for our business. For example, both Alpha mandate wins this quarter include back-office services, which can install quickly, allowing us to realize revenue faster. Further, one mandate is our second Alpha for Private Markets win, a key growth area for us. Encouragingly, both of these Alpha wins were takeaways from a key competitor with one of the wins having no existing services with State Street prior to becoming an Alpha client and the other a shared client that will now consolidate back office with State Street.

我們今年增加費用收入的首要任務是透過卓越服務引領策略，並推動更強大的後台銷售，以區別於我們的道富阿爾法和私募市場平台。我們本季贏得的兩項新的 Alpha 授權證明了我們執行此策略的能力，同時也展現了 Alpha 為我們的業務創造的明顯的競爭優勢和差異化。例如，本季贏得的兩項 Alpha 授權都包括後台服務，這些服務可以快速安裝，使我們能夠更快地實現收入。此外，一項任務是我們第二次贏得私募市場阿爾法獎，這是我們的關鍵成長領域。令人鼓舞的是，這兩場Alpha 勝利都是從主要競爭對手那裡獲得的，其中一場勝利在成為Alpha 客戶之前沒有為道富銀行提供任何現有服務，而另一項勝利則是共享客戶，現在將與道富銀行合併後台。

Within markets and financing, even as low FX volatility created a headwind for the industry in the first quarter, we attracted higher FX client volumes, both sequentially and year-over-year, supported by our market-leading and wide-ranging FX trading solutions. In FX, we're pleased to see higher client volumes and the 8% Q-over-Q fee revenue growth. We also expanded our markets franchise. Within outsourced trading, we continue to expand our product capabilities and geographical reach, completing the acquisition of CF Global Trading in Q1.

在市場和融資方面，儘管第一季外匯波動性較低給行業帶來了阻力，但在我們市場領先的廣泛外匯交易解決方案的支持下，我們連續和同比吸引了更高的外匯客戶量。在外匯領域，我們很高興看到客戶量增加以及費用收入較上季成長 8%。我們也擴大了我們的市場特許經營權。在外包交易方面，我們繼續擴大我們的產品能力和地理覆蓋範圍，並於第一季完成了對 CF Global Trading 的收購。

Global Advisors performed well, buoyed by higher equity markets, the strategic actions we have taken to position our asset management business for growth and the benefits of the strong finish and step-off point at year-end 2023. 1Q 2024 management fees of $510 million are the highest since the first quarter of 2022. While GA experienced total aggregate outflows in Q1, this was driven by the impact of a large but expected single client redemption within the institutional business. We saw continued momentum in the defined contribution business driven by our target date franchise. Encouragingly, we saw cash net inflows of $9 billion in the quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net inflows for our cash business. ETF AUM reached a record $1.4 trillion at quarter end with GA continuing to gather net inflows and expand market share within U.S. low-cost ETFs.

全球顧問表現良好，受到股市上漲、我們為實現資產管理業務成長而採取的策略行動以及 2023 年底強勁結束點和結束點的好處的提振。年第一季以來的最高水準。在目標日期特許經營的推動下，我們看到了固定繳款業務的持續成長動能。令人鼓舞的是，本季我們的現金淨流入達到 90 億美元，這是我們現金業務連續第四個季度出現正淨流入。截至季末，ETF 資產管理規模達到創紀錄的 1.4 兆美元，GA 繼續吸引淨流入並擴大美國低成本 ETF 的市場份額。

Now let me spend a moment on our continuing productivity efforts. We have a detailed set of initiatives across our business aimed at creating cost efficiencies and lasting productivity improvements. Regarding our ongoing operating model transformation, which forms an important part of these productivity initiatives, as you know, we are streamlining our operating model in India, and last quarter, we consolidated our first operations joint venture in the country. I am pleased to note that the consolidation of our second operation's joint venture in India closed on April 1. Combined, these 2 consolidations will propel the continued end-to-end transformation of our global operations and enable State Street to unlock productivity savings in the years ahead as we simplify our operating model.

現在讓我花點時間談談我們持續的生產力努力。我們在整個業務範圍內制定了一系列詳細的舉措，旨在提高成本效率和持久提高生產力。關於我們正在進行的營運模式轉型，這是這些生產力計劃的重要組成部分，如您所知，我們正在簡化我們在印度的營運模式，上個季度，我們整合了我們在該國的第一家運營合資企業。我很高興地註意到，我們在印度的第二家合資企業的合併已於4 月1 日結束。領域釋放生產力節省：隨著我們簡化營運模式，未來幾年。

Before I conclude my opening remarks, I would like to touch on our continuing balance sheet strength. Total capital return amounted to $308 million in the first quarter, consisting of common share dividends and share repurchases. I would highlight that we have returned a substantial amount of capital to our shareholders in recent quarters with total capital return over the last 6 quarters equivalent to almost 30% of State Street's total market cap at quarter end. As we pivot to a more normalized level of capital return this year, as we have outlined previously, it remains our intention to return approximately 100% of earnings in 2024 in the form of common share dividends and share repurchases, subject to market conditions and other factors.

在結束我的開場白之前，我想談談我們持續的資產負債表實力。第一季資本回報總額為 3.08 億美元，包括普通股股息和股票回購。我想強調的是，最近幾季我們向股東返還了大量資本，過去 6 個季度的總資本回報幾乎相當於道富銀行季末總市值的 30%。正如我們之前概述的那樣，隨著今年我們轉向更加正常的資本回報水平，我們仍然打算在2024 年以普通股股息和股票回購的形式返還約100% 的收益，具體取決於市場條件和其他因素。

To conclude, we have delivered a strong start to the year as demonstrated by both sequential and year-over-year total fee revenue growth, encouraging business wins, strong underlying expense discipline and continued capital return. As we look ahead, we remain highly focused on the execution of a set of clear strategic priorities for 2024. These strategic priorities are backed by detailed action plans aimed at driving growth across each of our business areas. Underpinning this execution is a set of business investments paired with a comprehensive set of productivity initiatives aimed at driving longer-term improvements on our operating model efficiency and effectiveness and generating positive fee operating leverage in 2024.

總而言之，我們在今年取得了良好的開局，這體現在總費用收入的連續增長和同比增長、令人鼓舞的業務勝利、嚴格的基本費用紀律和持續的資本回報。展望未來，我們仍然高度關注執行 2024 年一系列明確的策略重點。這些策略重點得到了旨在推動我們每個業務領域成長的詳細行動計劃的支持。支撐這項執行的是一系列業務投資以及一系列全面的生產力計劃，旨在推動我們營運模式效率和有效性的長期改進，並在 2024 年產生積極的費用營運槓桿。

Now let me hand the call over to Eric, who will take you through the quarter in more detail.

現在讓我將電話轉交給艾瑞克，他將帶您更詳細地了解本季。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 4, I'll begin my review of our first quarter financial results, which included a $0.32 EPS impact from an additional FDIC special assessment as described within the notable items table on the right of the slide. As Ron noted, we produced a strong start to the year. On the left panel, you can see that total fee revenue was up both sequentially and year-on-year. Relative to the year-ago period, we delivered robust management fee growth, higher front office software and data revenue and servicing fee growth while underlying expenses were well-controlled. As I mentioned during the first quarter, we recorded a provision for credit losses of $27 million, largely due to 2 CRE names. All told, we generated both positive total and fee operating leverage relative to the year ago, excluding notable items. We also delivered solid year-on-year EPS growth of 11%, excluding notable items, which was supported by the continuation of our share buybacks in the first quarter.

謝謝你，羅恩，大家早安。轉向幻燈片 4，我將開始審查我們的第一季財務業績，其中包括額外的 FDIC 特別評估對每股收益 0.32 美元的影響，如幻燈片右側值得注意的項目表中所述。正如羅恩所說，我們今年取得了良好的開局。在左側面板中，您可以看到總費用收入環比和同比均有所增長。與去年同期相比，我們實現了強勁的管理費增長、更高的前台軟體和數據收入以及服務費增長，同時基本費用得到了很好的控制。正如我在第一季提到的，我們記錄了 2700 萬美元的信貸損失撥備，主要是由於 2 個 CRE 名稱造成的。總而言之，與去年同期相比，我們產生了正的總槓桿率和費用營運槓桿率（不包括值得注意的項目）。我們還實現了 11% 的同比每股收益穩健增長（不包括值得注意的項目），這得益於我們第一季繼續股票回購的支持。

Turning now to Slide 5. We saw period-end AUC/A increased by 17% on a year-on-year basis and 5% sequentially to a record level. Year-on-year, the increase in AUC/A was largely driven by higher period-end market levels net new business and client flows. I would note that we have seen a mix shift into cash and cash equivalents worth an estimated 1 to 2 percentage points of total AUC/A versus a year ago. Quarter-on-quarter, AUC/A increased primarily due to higher period-end market levels and client flows. Global Advisors period-end AUM also increased to a record level, up 20% year-on-year, largely reflecting higher period-end market levels and net inflows and up 5% sequentially, primarily due to higher period-end market levels. At the right center of the slide, the market volatility indices provide a useful indicator of client transactional activity that drives servicing fees, spreads in FX trading and specials activity in agency lending.

現在轉向投影片 5。與去年同期相比，AUC/A 的成長主要是由於期末市場淨新業務和客戶流量水準較高所致。我要指出的是，與一年前相比，我們看到現金和現金等價物的混合轉變，其價值估計佔總 AUC/A 的 1 至 2 個百分點。 AUC/A 環比成長主要是由於期末市場水準和客戶流量增加。 Global Advisors 期末資產管理規模也增至創紀錄水平，年增 20%，主要反映了較高的期末市場水平和淨流入，環比增長 5%，主要是由於較高的期末市場水平。在投影片的右中心，市場波動指數提供了客戶交易活動的有用指標，這些交易活動推動了服務費、外匯交易的利差和機構貸款的特殊活動。

Turning to Slide 6. On the left side of the page, you'll see first quarter total servicing fees up 1% year-on-year, primarily from higher average market levels partially offset by pricing headwinds, a previously disclosed client transition and lower client activity and adjustments, including changes in certain client asset mix into lower earning cash and cash equivalents. In addition, the pace of installation started slower than we expected in the first quarter.

轉向投影片6。所抵銷。此外，第一季安裝速度開始慢於我們的預期。

Let me dimension some of these items for you. As I've told you before, the impact of the previously disclosed client transition was a headwind of approximately 2 percentage points to year-on-year growth. In addition, lower client activity and adjustments, including the client asset mix shift to cash, was also a headwind of approximately 2 percentage points year-on-year growth this quarter, some of which we believe is cyclical. Sequentially, total servicing fees were up 1%, primarily as a result of higher average market levels partially offset by lower client activity and adjustments, including the changes to certain asset mix and pricing headwinds.

讓我為您測量其中一些物品的尺寸。正如我之前告訴過你的，之前披露的客戶轉型的影響是同比增長約 2 個百分點的逆風。此外，客戶活動減少和調整（包括客戶資產組合轉向現金）也是本季同比增長約 2 個百分點的阻力，我們認為其中一些是週期性的。隨後，總服務費上漲了 1%，主要是由於平均市場水平較高，但部分被客戶活動減少和調整（包括某些資產組合的變化和定價逆風）所抵消。

On the bottom of the slide, we summarized some of the key performance indicators of our servicing business. In the first quarter, we generated $67 million of servicing fee wins, nicely spread across both North America and Europe. As you recall, solid sales in North America like this was one of the goals that we had described at a conference last fall. In addition, we had $291 million of servicing fee revenue to be installed at quarter-end, up $71 million year-on-year and $21 million quarter-on-quarter. We also had $2.6 trillion of AUC/A to be installed at period-end.

在投影片的底部，我們總結了我們服務業務的一些關鍵績效指標。第一季度，我們贏得了 6,700 萬美元的服務費，主要分佈在北美和歐洲。您還記得，像這樣的北美穩定銷售是我們在去年秋天的一次會議上描述的目標之一。此外，季末我們還有 2.91 億美元的服務費收入，年增 7,100 萬美元，季增 2,100 萬美元。期末我們還有 2.6 兆美元的 AUC/A 待安裝。

Turning now to Slide 7. First quarter management fees were up 12% year-on-year, primarily reflecting higher average market levels and net inflows from the prior periods partially offset by the impact of a strategic ETF product suite repricing initiative. Relative to the prior quarter, management fees were up 6% due to similar reasons, partially offset by lower performance fees.

現在轉向投影片 7。與上一季相比，由於類似原因，管理費上漲了 6%，但部分被績效費下降所抵消。

As you can see on the bottom-right of the slide, following record inflows in 4Q '23, our investment management franchise remains well positioned with momentum across each of its businesses. In ETFs, the overall flows were relatively flat in first quarter. Our SPDR Portfolio U.S. low-cost suite achieved continued market share gains driven by net inflows of $13 billion. In our institutional business, we saw first quarter net outflows of $19 billion, primarily driven by a single client. That said, we saw continued momentum in the U.S. defined contribution area with record AUM of approximately $730 billion. Lastly, in our cash franchise, we saw first quarter net inflows of $9 billion, the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net flows into cash.

正如您在投影片右下角所看到的，繼 23 年第 4 季創紀錄的資金流入之後，我們的投資管理業務仍然處於有利地位，各項業務均保持強勁勢頭。 ETF方面，第一季整體流量相對穩定。我們的 SPDR 投資組合美國低成本套件在 130 億美元淨流入的推動下實現了持續的市場份額成長。在我們的機構業務中，我們看到第一季淨流出 190 億美元，主要由單一客戶推動。儘管如此，我們看到美國固定繳款領域的持續成長勢頭，其資產管理規模達到創紀錄的約 7,300 億美元。最後，在我們的現金特許經營中，我們看到第一季淨流入 90 億美元，這是連續第四個季度現金淨流入為正。

Turning now to Slide 8. First quarter FX trading services revenue was down 3% year-on-year but up 8% sequentially. Relative to the year-ago period, the decrease was mainly due to lower spreads associated with the subdued FX volatility, partially offset by higher volumes as client engagement increased across nearly all of our FX venues. Quarter-on-quarter, the 8% revenue increase primarily reflects higher volumes with particular strength in our EM business as well as higher direct FX spreads.

現在轉向幻燈片 8。與去年同期相比，下降的主要原因是外匯波動性減弱導致利差下降，但隨著我們幾乎所有外匯交易場所的客戶參與度增加，交易量增加部分抵消了這一影響。與上一季相比，營收成長 8% 主要反映了我們的新興市場業務交易量的增加（尤其強勁）以及直接外匯利差的提高。

First quarter securities finance revenues were down 12% year-on-year, mainly due to lower agency balances and lower spreads primarily associated with significantly lower industry specials activity. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, we have seen agency lending balances up as demand is rising. Software and processing fees were up 25% year-on-year in Q1, largely driven by higher revenues associated with CRD, which I'll discuss in more detail shortly. Quarter-on-quarter software and processing fees declined 13%, primarily due to our lower on-premise renewals partially offset by higher lending-related fees. Finally, other fee revenue for the quarter increased $5 million year-on-year. Sequentially, other fee revenue increased $17 million, largely driven by an episodic currency devaluation in the prior quarter, which did not recur.

第一季證券金融收入年減 12%，主要是由於代理餘額減少以及利差下降（主要與行業特殊活動大幅減少有關）。從季度環比來看，隨著需求的增長，我們看到機構貸款餘額增加。第一季軟體和處理費用年增 25%，這主要是由於與 CRD 相關的收入增​​加所致，我將很快對此進行更詳細的討論。軟體和處理費用較上季下降 13%，主要是由於我們的內部續約費用較低，但部分被較高的貸款相關費用所抵銷。最後，本季其他費用收入較去年同期增加 500 萬美元。隨後，其他費用收入增加了 1,700 萬美元，這主要是由於上一季貨幣不定期貶值所致，但這種情況並未再次發生。

Moving to Slide 9. You'll see on the left panel that first quarter front office software and data revenue increased 32% year-on-year, primarily as a result of continued SaaS implementations and conversions driving higher professional services and software-enabled revenue growth. Sequentially, front office software and data revenue was down 20%, primarily driven by lower on-premise renewals and installations.

前往投影片 9。 。隨後，前台軟體和數據收入下降了 20%，這主要是由於本地續訂和安裝量減少所致。

Turning to some of the Alpha business metrics on the right panel. We were pleased to report 2 additional Alpha wins, including our second Alpha for Private Markets mandate. In addition, 3 mandates went live in the first quarter, bringing the total number of live mandates to 21. First quarter ARR increased 19% year-on-year, driven by over 20 SaaS client implementations and conversions over the last year.

轉向右側面板上的一些 Alpha 業務指標。我們很高興地報告另外兩場 Alpha 勝利，包括我們的第二個私募市場 Alpha 任務。此外，第一季上線了 3 個委託，使上線委託總數達到 21 個。

Turning to Slide 10. First quarter NII decreased 7% year-on-year but increased 6% sequentially to $716 million. The year-on-year decrease was largely due to deposit mix shift and lower average noninterest-bearing deposit balances, partially offset by the impact of higher average interest rates, client lending growth and investment portfolio positions. We were pleased to report a sequential increase in NII, which was primarily driven by higher investment securities yields, an increase in average interest-bearing deposits and loan growth, partially offset by the decline in average noninterest-bearing deposits. The NII results on a sequential quarter basis were better than we had previously expected, primarily driven by strength in both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposit balances towards the end of the quarter. While it is difficult to forecast the path of deposits in the current environment, we're pleased with the success that we are having in engaging our clients.

轉向投影片 10。年比下降主要是由於存款結構變動和平均無利息存款餘額下降，但部分被平均利率上升、客戶貸款成長和投資組合部位的影響所抵銷。我們很高興地報告NII環比成長，這主要是由於投資證券收益率上升、平均計息存款和貸款成長增加，但部分被平均無息存款下降所抵消。國家資訊基礎設施環比結果好於我們先前的預期，主要是由於本季度末有息和無息存款餘額均強勁。雖然在當前環境下很難預測存款的走向，但我們對吸引客戶所取得的成功感到高興。

On the right of this slide, we provide highlights from our average balance sheet during the first quarter. Average deposits increased 4% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by client balance growth across the interest-bearing deposit stack partially offset by a reduction in noninterest-bearing deposits. Average -- noninterest-bearing deposits decreased by less than $3 billion quarter-on-quarter. Cumulative U.S. dollar client deposit betas were 80% since the start of the current rate cycle with cumulative foreign currency basis for the same period continuing to be lower in the 30% to 60% range, depending on currency.

在這張投影片的右側，我們提供了第一季平均資產負債表的亮點。平均存款年增 4%，季增 6%，主要是由於計息存款的客戶餘額成長，部分被無息存款的減少所抵銷。平均無息存款環比減少不到 30 億美元。自當前利率週期開始以來，累計美元客戶存款貝塔值為 80%，同期累計外幣基差持續較低，在 30% 至 60% 範圍內，具體取決於貨幣。

Turning to Slide 11. First quarter expenses, excluding notable items, increased barely 1% year-on-year as we both invested more to fuel fee growth and increase the size of our productivity and optimization savings efforts by more than 50%. On a line-by-line basis, excluding notable items, on a year-on-year basis, compensation and employee benefits decreased 3%, primarily driven by lower incentive compensation and salaries as well as a decline in contractor spend that was partially driven by the consolidation of one of our operation's joint ventures in India. Information systems and communications expenses increased 4%, mainly due to higher technology and infrastructure investments partially offset by the optimization savings and vendor savings initiatives. Transaction processing increased 4%, mainly reflecting higher broker fees due to increased global market volumes. Occupancy increased 10%, partially due to real estate costs associated with the consolidation of the joint venture in India, which used to form part of the contractor cost within compensation benefits, partially offset by footprint optimization. And other expenses increased 5%, largely due to the timing of foundation funding.

轉向投影片 11。從逐行來看，排除值得注意的項目，薪酬和員工福利同比下降 3%，主要是由於激勵性薪酬和工資下降以及部分推動的承包商支出下降所致通過合併我們在印度的一家合資企業。資訊系統和通訊支出增加了 4%，主要是由於技術和基礎設施投資增加，部分被優化節省和供應商節省措施所抵消。交易處理量增加了 4%，主要反映了全球市場交易量增加導致經紀商費用上漲。入住率增加了 10%，部分原因是與印度合資企業合併相關的房地產成本，該成本過去是補償福利中承包商成本的一部分，部分被佔地面積優化所抵消。其他費用增加了 5%，主要是由於基金會資助的時間表。

Lastly, I'll spend a moment on our transformation efforts. If you recall, consolidating the first operation's joint venture last October increased our FTE head count as we in-source those capabilities. However, it also came with an expected financial benefit, excluding integration costs, of $20 million over the course of the year. As Ron mentioned, the consolidation of our second operation's joint venture in India closed on April 1, and this will also come with an increase in additional headcount from 2Q as well as expected financial benefits. The consolidation of these 2 joint ventures will be a catalyst for the next phase of State Street's global operations transformation and enable us to create a second wave of service improvements and productivity savings next year.

最後，我將花一點時間談談我們的轉型工作。如果你還記得的話，去年 10 月合併第一家合資企業增加了我們的 FTE 員工數量，因為我們內購了這些能力。然而，它也帶來了全年 2000 萬美元的預期財務收益（不包括整合成本）。正如 Ron 所提到的，我們在印度的第二家合資企業的合併已於 4 月 1 日結束，這也將帶來第二季度員工人數的增加以及預期的財務收益。這兩家合資企業的合併將成為道富銀行全球營運轉型下一階段的催化劑，並使我們能夠在明年創造第二波服務改善和生產力節省。

Moving to Slide 12. On the left side of the slide, we detail the evolution of our CET1 and Tier 1 leverage ratios, followed by our capital trends on the right of the slide. As you can see, our capital levels remain well above the regulatory minimums. While we continue to focus on optimizing our capital stack, the strength of our capital position enables us to extend our balance sheet to support our clients. As of quarter-end, our standardized CET1 ratio of 11.1% was down approximately 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter, largely driven by the expected normalization of RWA. The LCR for State Street Corporation was a healthy 107% and 130% of State Street Bank and Trust. Our exceptionally strong liquidity metrics benefit from the deep and diversified nature of our funding base and active balance sheet management.

前往投影片 12。在投影片左側，我們詳細介紹了 CET1 和一級槓桿率的演變，然後在投影片右側介紹了我們的資本趨勢。正如您所看到的，我們的資本水準仍然遠高於監管最低限度。在我們繼續專注於優化資本結構的同時，我們的資本狀況實力使我們能夠擴大資產負債表以支持我們的客戶。截至季末，我們的標準化 CET1 比率為 11.1%，環比下降約 50 個基點，主要是由於 RWA 的預期正常化所致。道富銀行的 LCR 為 107%，道富銀行信託的 LCR 為 130%。我們異常強勁的流動性指標得益於我們融資基礎的深度和多元化以及積極的資產負債表管理。

In the quarter, we were pleased to return $308 million to shareholders consisting of $100 million of common share repurchases and $208 million in declared common stock dividends. As Ron noted, we continue to expect to return around 100% of earnings to shareholders this year.

本季度，我們很高興向股東返還 3.08 億美元，其中包括 1 億美元的普通股回購和 2.08 億美元的已宣告普通股股息。正如 Ron 指出的那樣，我們仍然預計今年將 100% 左右的收益返還給股東。

In summary, we're quite pleased with the quarter. We have a clear strategy for growth, a detailed set of priorities that we are executing against in order to drive continued positive business momentum and expect to deliver increased fee operating leverage this year, excluding notable items.

總而言之，我們對本季非常滿意。我們有明確的成長策略，我們正在執行一系列詳細的優先事項，以推動持續的積極業務勢頭，並預計今年將增加費用營運槓桿（不包括值得注意的項目）。

Finally, let me cover our full year and second quarter outlook, which I would highlight continues to have the potential for variability given the macro environment we're operating in. In terms of our current assumptions, as we stand here today, we're assuming global equity markets flat to first quarter-end for the remainder of the year, which implies daily averages up 5% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q and up around 17% for the full year. Our rate outlook broadly aligns with the current forward curve, which I would note continues to move, while we expect FX market volatility will remain muted.

最後，讓我介紹一下我們的全年和第二季度展望，我想強調的是，考慮到我們所處的宏觀環境，展望仍然存在變化的可能性。就我們目前的假設而言，當我們今天站在這裡時，我們假設全球股市在今年剩餘時間與第一季末持平，這意味著第二季日均指數環比上漲 5%，全年上漲約 17%。我們的利率前景與目前的遠期曲線大致一致，我認為該曲線將繼續移動，而我們預計外匯市場波動將保持溫和。

Given our strong start to the year and higher average market levels, we think total fee revenue for the full year will now be at the higher end of our prior guide of up 3% to 4% year-on-year, so up a solid 4%, which is better than our previous outlook. There are, however, episodic and industry headwinds impacting our servicing business this year, including a previously disclosed client transition and the impact of client activity and adjustments, which includes the client asset mix shift into lower-earning cash and cash equivalents. We believe some of these factors are cyclical in nature, and we expect to offset a portion with higher sales and additional management actions this year.

鑑於我們今年的強勁開局和較高的平均市場水平，我們認為全年的總費用收入現在將處於我們之前指導的較高端，同比增長 3% 至 4%，因此增長穩健4%，好於我們之前的預期。然而，今年我們的服務業務受到偶發性和行業阻力的影響，包括先前披露的客戶轉型以及客戶活動和調整的影響，其中包括客戶資產組合轉向低收入現金和現金等價物。我們認為其中一些因素本質上是週期性的，我們預計今年銷售額的增加和額外的管理行動將抵消部分因素。

Turning to NII. As a result of our first quarter outperformance, strong deposit growth and the improved interest rate outlook, we now expect full year NII will be down approximately 5% year-on-year, which is better than our previous guide of down approximately 11%. On expenses, we expect full year expenses, ex notables, will be roughly in line with our prior guide of up about 2.5% but with the potential for some additional revenue-related costs this year. Given our improved outlook, we now expect to deliver additional positive fee operating leverage for the full year, excluding notable items.

轉向NII。由於我們第一季表現優異、存款成長強勁以及利率前景改善，我們目前預計全年NII將年減約5%，優於我們先前下降約11%的指引。在費用方面，我們預計全年費用（不包括知名人士）將大致與我們先前的指導一致，即成長約 2.5%，但今年可能會出現一些額外的收入相關成本。鑑於我們的前景有所改善，我們現在預計全年將提供額外的正費用營運槓桿（不包括值得注意的項目）。

Finally, turning to 2Q, on a quarter-on-quarter basis and excluding notable items, we would expect total fee revenue to be up 1.5% to 2%, NII to be down 2% to down 5% and expenses up about 2% to 2.5%, excluding the seasonal compensation expenses in 1Q and notable items. We think the provisions for credit losses could be in the $15 million to $25 million range in 2Q, and we would expect to have a better view on that later in the quarter as we continue to monitor our portfolio. Lastly, we expect 2Q tax rate to be approximately 22%.

最後，轉向第二季度，按季度計算，排除顯著項目，我們預計總費用收入將增長 1.5% 至 2%，NII 將下降 2% 至 5%，費用增長約 2%至2.5%，不包括第一季的季節性補償費用和值得注意的項目。我們認為第二季的信貸損失準備金可能在 1500 萬美元至 2500 萬美元之間，隨著我們繼續監控我們的投資組合，我們預計將在本季度晚些時候對此有更好的看法。最後，我們預計第二季稅率約為22%。

And with that, let me hand the call back to Ron.

接下來，讓我把電話轉回給羅恩。

Operator, we can now open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question will be from Brennan Hawken at UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將由瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken) 提出。

Eric, you -- your updated guide sort of suggests that NII you guys expect to pull back a little bit here from this strong result here in the first quarter. But one of the things that I noticed was repo was particularly robust in the quarter. Could you give a little color around what drove that strength and how sustainable it is? And is some of that normalization embedded in your outlook?

艾瑞克，你——你更新的指南有點表明，你們預計國家資訊基礎設施將比第一季的強勁結果有所回落。但我注意到的一件事是回購在本季特別強勁。您能否介紹一下推動這種力量的因素以及它的可持續性？您的觀點中是否也包含了這種常態化？

Brennan, it's Eric. There are a number of factors that drove the upswing in NII into the first quarter. The bulk of that was actually deposit balances coming in stronger than we had expected, both on the interest-bearing side across the stack and noninterest-bearing as well. That made up for the $30 million uptick in the -- in terms of our results relative to our expectation. The repo balances did tick up as well. They were a small part but worth, in NII terms, about a percentage point of more NII than we had expected.

布倫南，我是埃里克。推動第一季NII上升的因素有很多。其中大部分其實是存款餘額強於我們的預期，無論是生息或非生息。就我們的結果相對於我們的預期而言，這彌補了 3000 萬美元的成長。回購餘額也確實有增加。它們只佔一小部分，但就 NII 而言，其價值比我們預期高出約一個百分點。

And I think what we're seeing is that as the conditions in the economy continue to evolve, clients are holding more cash on their balance sheets. They're then putting that into a variety of different instruments, sometimes it's on deposits, sometimes it's on sweeps and sometimes it's in repo. And that's also been -- in fact, on the repo side, been aided a bit by the reduction in the fed's overnight repo operations. So it's really a mix of factors that we're seeing, which, together though, are driving a better NII performance, which we're pleased with.

我認為我們看到的是，隨著經濟情勢的不斷發展，客戶在資產負債表上持有更多現金。然後他們將其放入各種不同的工具中，有時是存款，有時是掃描，有時是回購。事實上，在回購方面，聯準會隔夜回購作業的減少也在一定程度上幫助了這一點。因此，這實際上是我們所看到的多種因素的綜合作用，但這些因素共同推動了 NII 性能的提高，我們對此感到滿意。

Yes. Yes. Great. You also quantified the impact of the BlackRock transition. So thanks for that. It does seem as though maybe that impact is a little larger than your prior expectation. Do I have the right read on that? And maybe could you give us an update on where we stand as far as the ongoing impact goes?

是的。是的。偉大的。您也量化了貝萊德轉型的影響。所以謝謝你。看來這種影響確實比你之前的預期還要大一些。我對此有正確的解讀嗎？或許可以為我們介紹一下我們在持續影響方面的最新情況嗎？

Sure, Brennan. It's Eric again. The previously announced client transition that we had referenced is in line in terms of amounts that we had expected. If you recall, we had said it'd be worth about 2 percentage points of servicing fees this year, which is about a percentage point of total fees. And remember, if you go back to our original disclosure over the last couple of years, we had described the total amount to be worth about 2 percentage points of total fees, and we're seeing about half of that come through on a year-on-year basis this quarter and for this year and so in line -- fully in line with what we had previously described.

當然，布倫南。又是埃里克。我們提到的先前宣布的客戶轉換金額符合我們的預期。如果你還記得的話，我們曾說過今年服務費的價值約為 2 個百分點，大約佔總費用的一個百分點。請記住，如果你回顧我們過去幾年最初的披露，我們已經將總金額描述為約佔總費用的 2 個百分點，並且我們看到其中大約一半是在一年內完成的 -本季度和今年的同比情況都一致——完全符合我們先前的描述。

Next question will be from Glenn Schorr at Evercore.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

One quickie follow-up on the NII stuff. The balance is coming into March. I know these things are really hard to predict. But is something happening with the client discussions and the overall profitability management that might give you confidence that those balances stick? Or should we think of this as rates are higher, parking balances with a safe custodian?

關於 NII 內容的快速跟進。餘額將進入三月。我知道這些事情真的很難預測。但是，客戶討論和整體獲利管理中發生的事情是否可能讓您有信心保持這些平衡？或者我們應該將其視為費率較高、停車餘額由安全保管人保管的情況？

Glenn, we've been heavily engaged with our clients over the last year, I'd say, 1.5 years as we've seen quite a shift in the interest rate environment and the evolution of deposits in the banking system.

Glenn，過去一年，我想說，1.5 年以來，我們一直與客戶密切合作，因為我們看到了利率環境和銀行體系存款演變的巨大轉變。

I'd answer your question in a -- at a couple of different levels. I think first, going into this year, we had expected client -- total client deposit balances in the $200 billion to $210 billion. And we now see that in the $210 billion to $220 billion for this quarter. And to be honest, we expect that we continue at around that level. And a lot of that is both the engagement that we've had with clients. They all have cash, and we certainly encourage them to bring it to us. And part of that is the way we think about client relationships, client profitability, the client services that we can offer.

我會在幾個不同的層面上回答你的問題。我認為首先，進入今年，我們預計客戶存款餘額總額將在 2,000 億至 2,100 億美元之間。我們現在看到本季的金額為 2100 億至 2200 億美元。說實話，我們預計我們會繼續保持在這個水平附近。其中很大一部分是我們與客戶的互動。他們都有現金，我們當然鼓勵他們把現金帶給我們。其中一部分是我們思考客戶關係、客戶獲利能力以及我們可以提供的客戶服務的方式。

And so I think some of what you're seeing here in the higher aggregate levels of deposits is due to our management action. I think in addition to that, there do tend to be somewhat higher deposits in the banking system. So the tide has been gently rising. I'd say very gently. And that's been helpful, and we expect that to be relatively neutral going forward. But we'll obviously need to see based on the actions -- the various actions at the fed and how they evolve.

因此，我認為您在這裡看到的存款總額較高的部分原因是我們的管理行動。我認為除此之外，銀行體系的存款確實往往會增加。所以潮水一直慢慢漲。我會非常溫和地說。這很有幫助，我們預期未來會相對中立。但我們顯然需要根據行動來觀察——聯準會的各種行動以及它們如何演變。

Very cool. Appreciate that. One quickie. You can't comment on the specifics, but I'm more talking the big picture. You were named in some stories as potential interest in some private credit manager. I'm more talking big picture of where theoretically that might fit in and just -- I like the better flows on [CN], SSGA, but strategically, what are you focused on in terms of continuing growth across that franchise?

很酷。感謝。快一點。你不能評論具體細節，但我更多的是談論大局。在一些報道中，您被指名是對某些私人信貸經理的潛在興趣。我更多地談論理論上可能適合的大局，只是 - 我喜歡 [CN]、SSGA 上更好的流量，但從戰略上講，您在該系列的持續增長方面關注的是什麼？

Glenn, it's Ron. So we've tried to be quite clear about what we're doing over at SSGA. I mean, first is around continuing to grow the ETF franchise. As you know, our legacy strength is in the institutional business, where we continue to be quite strong. And we've focused a lot over the last several years on growing the low-cost ETF franchise, which tends to find its ways into retail portfolios through intermediaries. That led to the repricing initiative that we did last year, which, in retrospect, has proven to be quite a smart move because the market share has gone up, and those portfolios tend to move. These are buy-and-hold investors. So ETFs would be one. And we continue to grow the active space, typically with working with very close partners of ours, and we see a lot of runway in active. And then finally, fixed income, particularly out -- we have a strong fixed income offering here in the U.S., and we built it out quite a bit in the last couple of years in Europe. And you're seeing lots of strength in the ETF ecosystem in Europe.

格倫，是羅恩。因此，我們試圖非常清楚地了解我們在 SSGA 所做的事情。我的意思是，首先是繼續擴大 ETF 業務。如您所知，我們的傳統優勢在於機構業務，我們在該領域仍然相當強大。過去幾年，我們非常注重發展低成本 ETF 特許經營權，該特許經營權往往透過中介機構進入零售投資組合。這導致了我們去年採取的重新定價舉措，回想起來，這被證明是一個相當明智的舉措，因為市場份額已經上升，而且這些投資組合往往會改變。這些是買入並持有的投資者。所以ETF就是其中之一。我們不斷擴大活躍空間，通常是與我們非常密切的合作夥伴合作，我們看到許多跑道都處於活躍狀態。最後，固定收益，尤其是固定收益——我們在美國擁有強大的固定收益產品，過去幾年我們在歐洲也建立了相當多的固定收益產品。您將看到歐洲 ETF 生態系統的強大實力。

Second area of growth is really trying to leverage the institutional client base because its legacy is the passive index business. If we have an institutional relationship, we tend to be the #1 or #2 manager on their platform. That leads you -- that gives you a seat at the table, and we believe it gives us an ability to potentially distribute other kinds of products and services. So that's where a lot of our focus is now, on the institutional business.

第二個成長領域是真正嘗試利用機構客戶群，因為它的遺產是被動指數業務。如果我們有機構關係，我們往往是他們平台上的第一或第二經理。這會引導您，讓您在談判桌上佔有一席之地，我們相信這使我們有能力分銷其他類型的產品和服務。這就是我們現在重點關注的機構業務。

And then finally, continuing to deepen. We have a global franchise, but there's areas that we can deepen it more. You've heard us talk about Europe, and we're focused just as much on Asia Pacific as those markets continue to grow and we're able to leverage the positions we have and -- but really, focusing on deepening as opposed to broadening geographic reach. So that, in a nutshell, is how we're thinking about it, and we're pleased with how it's playing out.

最後，繼續深化。我們擁有全球特許經營權，但在某些領域我們可以進一步深化。你聽過我們談論歐洲，我們對亞太地區的關注與這些市場的持續成長一樣，我們能夠利用我們現有的地位——但實際上，我們專注於深化而不是擴大地理範圍。簡而言之，這就是我們的想法，我們對它的進展感到滿意。

Next question will be from Ken Usdin at Jefferies.

下一個問題將由 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 提出。

(Operator Instructions) Moving on to Alex Blostein at Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）轉向高盛的 Alex Blostein。

Another one for NII. I guess, good quarter, good guide for the second quarter as well, and that's sort of elevating your full year NII guidance also. But similarly, I guess, to kind of what we saw in your guidance last quarter, the back half of the year seems to have a pretty meaningful drop off for the tune of maybe $100 million or so versus the quarterly run rate. Eric, I guess, given your comments on deposits being stable and higher rates are kind of are where they are, you're still getting the benefit of repricing on the securities portfolio, what sort of informs this sort of decline in NII towards the back of the year?

另一張是 NII 的。我想，這個季度不錯，第二季也有很好的指導，這也提高了你的全年 NII 指導。但同樣，我想，正如我們在上個季度的指導中看到的那樣，今年下半年似乎與季度運行率相比出現了相當大的下降，大約為 1 億美元左右。艾瑞克，我想，考慮到您對存款穩定和較高利率的評論，您仍然可以從證券投資組合重新定價中受益，是什麼導致了NII的這種下降今年？

Alex, it's Eric. We're going to continue to see some of the trends that we have been seeing, and it's just a matter of how the various pieces partially or fully offset each other over time. We're going to continue to see a tailwind from the level of rates, at least given the current forward curve, because that plays through the investment portfolio and play -- and gives us a tailwind as does some continued growth in lending.

亞歷克斯，這是埃里克。我們將繼續看到我們已經看到的一些趨勢，這只是各個部分如何隨著時間的推移部分或完全相互抵消的問題。我們將繼續看到利率水準帶來的順風，至少考慮到當前的遠期曲線，因為這會影響投資組合和發揮作用，並給我們帶來順風，就像貸款的持續成長一樣。

The headwind that we've been navigating through, which I would describe, comes in steps and sometimes it's a step down, sometimes half a step back up, is around the deposit levels across the interest-bearing stack, where we're just seeing deposits, I think, at nice levels, to be honest, while we continue to see the grind down of noninterest-bearing deposits. And we do expect another quarter of that, the noninterest-bearing deposits to trend down and then to flatten out in the second half of the year. I think -- so you'll see those trends continue.

我所描述的，我們一直在經歷的逆風是逐步出現的，有時是下降一步，有時是後退半步，是圍繞生息堆疊的存款水平，我們只是看到老實說，我認為存款處於不錯的水平，而我們繼續看到無利息存款的減少。我們確實預計，在接下來的四分之一中，無息存款將呈下降趨勢，然後在下半年趨於平穩。我認為——所以你會看到這些趨勢繼續下去。

I think you'll -- we'll see where we come out. But if you take our guide together, we expect a modest step down into the second quarter. And then we see a leveling off in the third and fourth quarter of our NII. I think in the past, we've talked about being in a range of $500 million to $600 million a quarter. We're now seeing and expect to be comfortably above the $600 million per quarter range. But those -- it's those factors as headwinds and tailwinds that'll play through, that'll kind of dictate exactly where we come out.

我想你會——我們會看看結果如何。但如果你綜合考慮我們的指南，我們預計第二季將出現適度下降。然後我們看到國家資訊基礎設施的第三和第四季趨於平穩。我想過去我們討論過每季 5 億到 6 億美元的範圍。我們現在看到並預計將輕鬆超過每季 6 億美元的範圍。但那些——逆風和順風等因素將會發揮作用，這將在一定程度上決定我們的結果。

But I think as I said earlier, the level of client engagement that we've had in terms of putting deposits with us, putting deposits at different price points with us, some of those are the core transactional deposits that need support custody accounts and some of those are the discretionary amount of deposits, has been a real priority for the franchise and I think one that we've shown some good success in. And that's really creating, I think, this better expectation than we had earlier signaled at the beginning of the year and one that we think will endure and then provide the stability and, over time, upside in NII in the coming years.

但我認為，正如我之前所說，我們在向我們存入存款、以不同價格點存入我們的存款方面的客戶參與度，其中一些是需要支持託管帳戶的核心交易存款，還有一些其中是可自由支配的存款金額，一直是特許經營權的真正優先事項，我認為我們已經在這方面取得了一些良好的成功。的期望我們認為這項舉措將持續下去，並在未來幾年內為國家資訊基礎設施提供穩定性和上行空間。

Great. All right. That's helpful. My second question was around expenses. You talked about how consolidation of the JV, I guess, that took place recently in April here will create a new wave of optimization for next year, if I got that right. Can you just outline what that could mean in terms of incremental, either [regearing] benefits or cost benefits, however you want to frame that, and what that means for maybe the overall kind of expense growth for the franchise? I know you're holding the line this year really well. But is there an opportunity to kind of continue that into 2025 as well?

偉大的。好的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於費用的。我想，您談到了四月份最近發生的合資企業整合將如何為明年帶來新一輪的優化，如果我沒說錯的話。您能否概述一下這在增量方面可能意味著什麼，無論是[調整]效益還是成本效益，無論您想要如何構建它，以及這對於特許經營的整體費用增長意味著什麼？我知道你今年的表現非常出色。但是否有機會將這種情況延續到 2025 年？

Yes. Alex, it's Ron here. I think it's good to focus on what we said here because we've talked to you and your colleagues just about ongoing productivity improvement. We've been at it for years. And we do believe this unlocks a -- not a potential but a new wave of productivity growth. And why is that?

是的。亞歷克斯，我是榮恩。我認為重點關注我們在這裡所說的內容是件好事，因為我們已經與您和您的同事討論了持續提高生產力的問題。我們已經這樣做很多年了。我們確實相信這會釋放出新一波生產力成長，而不是潛力。為什麼是這樣？

Well, firstly, almost by definition, if you're taking these ventures on, you're eliminating the margin that was in it, that was in our expenses. That now comes out, right? So you've got that as a near-immediate tailwind. But more importantly and more important for the long term is that we can really complete and take advantage of true end-to-end process improvement and simplification.

嗯，首先，幾乎根據定義，如果你進行這些冒險，你就消除了其中的利潤，也就是我們的費用。現在就出來了，對嗎？所以你已經得到了近乎直接的順風。但更重要的是，從長遠來看，我們能夠真正完成並利用真正的端到端流程來改善和簡化。

We had created through the JVs, which go back to the early days of our offshoring journey, we've created a lot of complication. Unintentionally, we created a lot of complication. This enables us to get at that. The work has already started. Our operations folks are spending a lot of time in India. They're -- they've done some recent hiring and brought on some great leadership there. So if you think about the importance of India to our operations and the amount of work that passes through there, between this end-to-end simplification, this ability to eliminate checkers of checkers of checkers and all those kinds of things, we see an enormous amount of opportunity to improve.

我們是透過合資企業創建的，這可以追溯到我們離岸外包之旅的早期，我們製造了許多複雜的情況。無意中，我們造成了很多麻煩。這使我們能夠做到這一點。工作已經開始了。我們的營運人員在印度花費了大量時間。他們最近進行了一些招聘，並在那裡引進了一些出色的領導層。因此，如果你考慮一下印度對我們運營的重要性以及經過那裡的工作量，在這種端到端的簡化、這種消除跳棋的跳棋的能力以及所有這些類型的事情之間，我們會看到巨大的改進機會。

And then finally, as we continue our technology investment, a lot of that will be directed there. It'll be directed at some of the things that, in the past, you would've said, well, let's take advantage of labor arbitrage. And now the technology is at a cost level where we can simply eliminate the labor and not have -- particularly for some of these repetitive kinds of tasks between machine learning and other kinds of AI that you can use to replace labor. And you end up then with a -- one, a lower labor cost, but more importantly, you've got job content that's very attractive to people and people want to make careers here as opposed to feeling like they're stuck in this dead end repetitive tasks. So we are very optimistic about this.

最後，隨著我們繼續進行技術投資，其中很大一部分將集中在那裡。它將針對一些事情，在過去，你會說，好吧，讓我們利用勞動力套利。現在，這項技術的成本水準是我們可以簡單地消除勞動力而不是擁有的——特別是對於機器學習和其他類型的人工智慧之間可以用來替代勞動力的一些重複性任務。然後你最終會得到一個——一個，較低的勞動力成本，但更重要的是，你的工作內容對人們非常有吸引力，人們希望在這裡發展事業，而不是感覺自己被困在這個死胡同里結束重複性任務。所以我們對此非常樂觀。

Next question will be from Brian Bedell at Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell 提出。

Great. First, just a confirmation on the guidance you gave, Eric, on the 2Q fee revenue up 1% to 2%, NII down 2% to 5%, expenses up 2% to 2.5%. Is that sequential for revenue and year-over-year for expenses?

偉大的。首先，確認您給予的指導，Eric，第二季費用收入成長 1% 至 2%，NII 下降 2% 至 5%，費用成長 2% 至 2.5%。收入和支出年比是否連續？

No. It was sequential for every one of those as you look forward. So it's all on a 1Q to 2Q basis.

不。所以這一切都是以第一季到第二季為基礎的。

2Q basis. Okay. So then going back to the NII guide, I think you also said down 2% to 5% versus the $716 million in 2Q? And then did you say down again in 3Q and then flattening out or flattening out in 3Q?

第二季基礎。好的。那麼回到 NII 指南，我想您也說過與第二季的 7.16 億美元相比下降了 2% 到 5%？然後你是說第三季又下降，然後第三季趨於平穩還是趨於平穩？

What I described is a flatter second half of the year. And so there are different paths here, to be honest. And it really will just depend on the level of deposits, the level of interest rates, just how the tale of some of the client deposit repricings that we've described come through or at the back end of those. So I gave some -- a high-level view.

我所描述的是下半年較為平淡的情況。老實說，這裡有不同的路徑。這實際上只取決於存款水平、利率水平，以及我們所描述的一些客戶存款重新定價的故事如何發生或在這些故事的後端。所以我給了一些——高層次的觀點。

But Brian, I think there's a range of scenarios. What we do have some confidence in is the expectation that, in aggregate, NII will be down 5% from a full year basis. And that's quite a bit better than the down 10% that we had previously guided towards.

但是布萊恩，我認為有很多種情況。我們確實有信心的是，NII 整體將比全年下降 5%。這比我們之前指導的下降 10% 的目標要好得多。

Right. Yes. And if I just -- if I use the flattish assumption, I'm more like flat for the year on that cadence. But this is that -- would that be sort of a -- as you said, a range? But a flat NII outcome year-over-year would be at the better end of your range? Or is that sort of really difficult to achieve?

正確的。是的。如果我使用平坦的假設，那麼我今年的節奏就比較平坦。但這就是——就像你說的那樣，一個範圍嗎？但是，NII 結果同比持平會是您範圍內較好的結果嗎？或者說這真的很難實現嗎？

No. Let me try to clarify. We expect total NII to be down 5% on a year-on-year basis for the full year. What I did say is that we expect NII to be -- in 3Q and 4Q, to be roughly the same, to be flattish between those 2 quarters. And so now the question is exactly how much does it come down in the second quarter? And then from second quarter into the combination of third and fourth quarter, how much does that come down? And there is a range of different scenarios that I think you're -- you could foresee.

不，讓我試著澄清一下。我們預計全年NII總額將年減5%。我所說的是，我們預計 NII 在第三季和第四季大致相同，在這兩個季度之間持平。那麼現在的問題是第二季具體會下降多少？然後從第二季到第三季和第四季的組合，下降了多少？我認為您可以預見一系列不同的情況。

But the reason we're trying not to overspec the exact quarter by quarter by quarter expectation is there's just underlying volatility out there in the kind of macroeconomic conditions in the risk-on/risk-off sentiment, in the central banks' actions, right, and then in our client deposit levels. And so hopefully, that gives you enough context to go on.

但我們試圖不過度預期逐季預期的原因是，在風險偏好/風險規避情緒、央行的行動中，宏觀經濟狀況存在潛在的波動，對吧？ ，然後是我們的客戶存款水平。希望這能為您提供足夠的背景資訊來繼續。

That's super helpful. And then maybe just on the Private Markets wins. It sounds like momentum is improving there. Maybe if you could just talk about what your pipeline is looking like in Private Markets Alpha and kind of your expectations over the next 1 to 2 years?

這非常有幫助。然後也許只是在私人市場上獲勝。聽起來那裡的勢頭正在改善。也許您能談談您在私募市場 Alpha 中的通路情況以及您對未來 1 到 2 年的期望嗎？

Brian, it's Ron. I mean we've talked about the private business as being a double-digit growth business. We stand by that. We see lots of potential growth. Private Markets Alpha is developing nicely for us, largely for some of the -- for many of the same reasons that Alpha itself has. It's an opportunity. As these firms become more complex operating and technology stacks, that's a way to not just lower some costs but improve operations and future-proof operations. So it's developing well. So we remain optimistic about it.

布萊恩，是榮恩。我的意思是，我們已經將私人企業視為兩位數成長的企業。我們堅持這一點。我們看到了很多潛在的成長。私募市場 Alpha 對我們來說發展得很好，主要是因為某些原因——與 Alpha 本身的許多原因相同。這是一個機會。隨著這些公司的營運和技術堆疊變得更加複雜，這不僅可以降低一些成本，還可以改善營運和麵向未來的營運。所以發展得很好。所以我們對此保持樂觀。

Next question will be from David Smith at Autonomous Research.

下一個問題將來自自治研究中心的大衛史密斯。

Could you talk a little bit more about your capital priority today? Your payout ratio in the first quarter was somewhat below your 100% full year target.

您今天能多談談您的資本優先事項嗎？您第一季的支付率略低於 100% 的全年目標。

David, it's Eric. We gave guidance at the beginning of the year on a full year basis purposely, right, because each quarter, there's going to be a different set of variables as we navigate through. So we described capital return in aggregate to be around total earnings for the year, and we reaffirmed that in our prepared remarks.

大衛，是艾瑞克。我們在年初故意在全年的基礎上提供了指導，對吧，因為每個季度，我們都會遇到一組不同的變數。因此，我們將總體資本回報率描述為接近當年的總收益，並且我們在準備好的發言中重申了這一點。

If you then go into the specifics of the first quarter, remember, we had expected a normalization of the lower than usual RWA that came through in the fourth quarter. Some of that is just market factors playing through on the FX book. Some of that is equity markets upticking in the agency and securities financing space. And some of it, to be honest, is just putting capital to work with our clients, where we're engaging with them and that's driving some of the fee revenue growth that you saw.

如果您隨後了解第一季的具體情況，請記住，我們曾預計第四季度的 RWA 會低於平常水平，從而正常化。其中一些只是在外匯帳簿上發揮作用的市場因素。其中一部分是代理和證券融資領域的股市上漲。老實說，其中一些只是投入資金與我們的客戶合作，我們與他們合作，這推動了您所看到的一些費用收入的成長。

At the same time, our priority is to get capital back to shareholders. We continue our dividend at pace, as you'd expect. We had some buybacks this quarter. If you do the math, that buyback activity will increase going forward for the next few quarters. We also had the new information about the FDIC assessment. And so we had to accrue for that expense instead of returning capital to shareholders for this particular quarter.

同時，我們的首要任務是將資本返還給股東。正如您所期望的那樣，我們將繼續按節奏派發股息。本季我們進行了一些回購。如果你算一下，未來幾季的回購活動將會增加。我們還獲得了有關 FDIC 評估的新資訊。因此，我們必須預提該費用，而不是在該特定季度向股東返還資本。

So anyway, just a way to describe, we're on track with our priority and, to be honest, our commitment to get capital back to shareholders in line with earnings this year. And it'll just -- every quarter is a little bit different, but I think you'll see that accelerate into the second quarter.

因此，無論如何，只是一種描述方式，我們正在履行我們的優先事項，說實話，我們致力於根據今年的收益向股東返還資本。每個季度都會有一點不同，但我認為你會看到這種情況在第二季加速。

And I think you gave the tax rate for the second quarter. Are you still expecting 21% to 22% for the full year?

我想你給了第二季的稅率。您還預計全年成長 21% 至 22% 嗎？

I think I need to quickly go back to the January remarks. But we did not update those and -- so I think that's a good place, a good estimate to use for the full year, the one that you had back on the January call. Yes, that's correct.

我想我需要快速回到一月的言論。但我們沒有更新這些，所以我認為這是一個很好的地方，是全年使用的一個很好的估計，你在一月份的電話會議上得到的那個。對，那是正確的。

Okay. And just one last cleanup. The preferred dividend, they'll still be elevated in the $50 million to $55 million range in the second quarter, but then it'll be kind of more like $40 million in the second half of the year.

好的。還有最後一次清理工作。優先股股息在第二季仍將提高到 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元，但下半年將達到 4,000 萬美元左右。

Yes. Yes, that's correct. We're just kind of moving through this past quarter 1 and quarter 2 between the redemptions -- the issuance and redemptions and then the -- literally, the tactical timing of some of the dividends. You've got it -- that right. There's one more quarter of elevation in the $50 million to $55 million range next quarter, meaning second quarter, and then it'll run at about $40 million a quarter from third quarter onwards.

是的。對，那是正確的。我們只是在過去的第一季和第二季之間進行贖回——發行和贖回，然後是——字面意思是一些股息的戰術時機。你明白了——沒錯。下個季度（即第二季）在 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元的範圍內還會有四分之一的上漲，然後從第三季開始每季將上漲約 4,000 萬美元。

Next question will be from Mike Mayo at Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將由富國銀行的麥克·梅奧提出。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can.

我們可以。

Can you talk about the relationship between stock markets and revenues? You used to have, like for every 100 -- every 10% change in the S&P 500, it impacts your servicing fees by x amount. Can you remind us what that is these days and how much of a lag there is with that? And along with that, I guess your guidance for NII instead of being down 10% to down 5%, what exactly changed the last kind of month or so?

能談談股市和收入之間的關係嗎？過去，標準普爾 500 指數每 100 - 每 10% 的變化，都會對您的服務費用產生 x 的影響。您能提醒我們現在是什麼情況以及有多少延遲嗎？除此之外，我猜你對 NII 的指導不是下降 10% 到 5%，上個月左右到底是什麼改變了？

Yes. Mike, it's Eric. Let me answer those in reverse order. On NII, what happened in the first quarter was really higher deposit balances across the interest-bearing stack and even relative to our expectations on noninterest-bearing in March. So that changed in a positive way, created an uplift into the first quarter that we had not expected.

是的。麥克，是埃里克。讓我以相反的順序回答這些問題。在 NII 方面，第一季發生的情況是，整個帶息存款餘額確實較高，甚至相對於我們 3 月對無息存款的預期而言。因此，情況發生了積極的變化，為第一季帶來了我們意想不到的成長。

The last time we gave full year guidance on NII was back in January when we expected it to be down, on a full year basis, 10% for the full year. And it's only today that we've reassessed that. We did not reassess that back at the beginning of March. We reassessed that today. And what we're factoring in is the higher step off, the higher level of deposits with us generally and the fewer rate cuts that we're expecting from central banks around the world. And so that's what gets us to a better full year guide on NII.

我們上次對 NII 給予全年指引是在 1 月份，當時我們預計 NII 將全年下降 10%。直到今天我們才重新評估這一點。我們在三月初並沒有重新評估這一點。我們今天重新評估了這一點。我們考慮的是更高的步調、更高的存款水平以及我們預期世界各國央行降息的次數更少。這就是我們獲得更好的 NII 全年指南的原因。

If I then turn to the equity market question, how it factors through servicing fees, we need to be -- we need to go through it in pieces. And so let me start. First, what matters to us is not just the S&P equity index because we're global, right? More than 40% of our revenues are abroad, including in emerging markets. And while the S&P is up year-on-year 28%, the All-World Index is up only 18%. And that's what's more material to our financial statements, given the international and global footprint that we have.

如果我接下來轉向股市問題，它如何影響服務費，我們需要——我們需要分塊來解決這個問題。讓我開始吧。首先，對我們來說重要的不僅僅是標準普爾股票指數，因為我們是全球性的，對吧？我們 40% 以上的收入來自國外，包括新興市場。雖然標普指數年增 28%，但環球指數僅上漲 18%。考慮到我們的國際和全球足跡，這對我們的財務報表來說更重要。

With that 18%, we'd expect a substantial tailwind of servicing fees on a year-on-year basis and up 4% to 5% range, typically. But it tends to move around. As you said, sometimes there's a bit of timing there, sometimes there's a bit of mix there and so forth. What we did see that was a headwind to that this year were 2 things: one was the previously announced client transition, and that was worth about 2 points of servicing fee headwinds; and then we've continued to see a lower -- or, I'll describe, different level of client activity that was worth almost 2 percentage points of headwind this year, some of which we think is cyclical. Some of that is transactional activity that we've talked about, that we tend to get paid for on a unit basis through our fee schedules. And then this quarter, we also referenced the shift to client cash and cash equivalents within the AUC/A stack, which tends to come in at a much lower fee rate for custody and accounting services. And so those were the pieces that went against us.

有了這 18%，我們預計服務費將年比大幅上漲，通常會上漲 4% 至 5%。但它往往會四處移動。正如你所說，有時有一些時間安排，有時會有一些混合等等。我們確實看到今年的阻力有兩件事：一是先前宣布的客戶轉型，這相當於 2 個點的服務費阻力；然後我們繼續看到較低的——或者，我將描述，不同水平的客戶活動，這相當於今年幾乎 2 個百分點的逆風，我們認為其中一些是週期性的。其中一些是我們已經討論過的交易活動，我們傾向於透過我們的費用表按單位獲得報酬。然後，本季度，我們還提到了 AUC/A 堆疊中向客戶現金和現金等價物的轉變，這往往會以低得多的託管和會計服務費率出現。這些都是對我們不利的部分。

And just one follow-up, just -- you said more-than-expected deposits. Why was that?

只是一個後續行動，只是──你說存款超出預期。為什麼會這樣呢？

I think the more-than-expected deposits is really driven by 2 factors. One is that there tends to be more cash in the system, in the banking system today. We think that's a mix of central bank actions, in particular; in the U.S., the reduction in the overnight repo operation that the fed's running. That comes back in a way into our clients or into the banking system, and that's been -- I think that's generally improved liquidity conditions or added to what is -- our very liquid conditions have made them even more liquid.

我認為存款超預期實際上是由兩個因素驅動的。一是現今的銀行體系中往往有較多的現金。我們認為這是央行行動的綜合體現；在美國，聯準會減少了隔夜回購作業。這在某種程度上回到了我們的客戶或銀行系統中，我認為這通常改善了流動性狀況，或增加了流動性狀況，使它們變得更具流動性。

And then the second factor, to be honest, is over the last 1.5 years, 2 years, we've been very engaged, and I'd say, increasingly engaged with clients on where they put their cash. They put their cash with us in deposits, in repo, in money market, in money market suites, because every one of those areas, we offer services to our clients. And I think what we've done over time is sharpened our engagement with our clients, and that's resulted in more cash and deposits with us in a way that we find is healthy, obviously, for our balance sheet, we're always delighted to keep cash, but also helps with earnings and margin and economically.

老實說，第二個因素是在過去的 1.5 年、2 年裡，我們一直非常積極地參與，而且我想說，越來越多地與客戶接觸，了解他們把錢放在哪裡。他們將現金存入我們的存款、回購、貨幣市場、貨幣市場套件中，因為我們在每個領域都為客戶提供服務。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們所做的就是加強了與客戶的互動，這導致我們以一種我們認為健康的方式獲得了更多的現金和存款，顯然，對於我們的資產負債表來說，我們總是很高興保留現金，但也有助於增加收入和利潤，並在經濟上有所幫助。

Next question will be from Rajiv Bhatia at Morningstar.

下一個問題將由晨星公司的拉吉夫·巴蒂亞 (Rajiv Bhatia) 提出。

Can you comment on how the pricing environment is for your servicing business? If inflation remains higher for longer, should we expect lower pricing headwinds? And then as I understand it, about 60% of your servicing fees is asset-based. How do pricing headwinds compare in the asset-based bucket versus the nonasset-based bucket?

您能否評論一下您的服務業務的定價環境如何？如果通膨在較長時間內保持在較高水平，我們是否應該預期定價阻力會降低？據我了解，大約 60% 的服務費是基於資產的。以資產為基礎的類別與非以資產為基礎的類別中的定價逆風如何比較？

It's a broad question. We've been in an environment, I think, the last 4 years or so where we've seen pricing headwinds in the servicing business to be roughly in the 2% headwind level. And that's kind of -- that'll float around a bit by quarter. It'll float around on the margin a little bit by year. But it's substantially below what we had seen way back in 2019, which was, I'll describe, a bubble of repricing.

這是一個廣泛的問題。我認為，在過去 4 年左右的時間裡，我們一直處於這樣的環境中，我們看到服務業務的定價逆風大約在 2% 的逆風水平。這會按季度一點點浮動。它會逐年在邊緣浮動。但它遠低於我們早在 2019 年看到的水平，我將描述那是一個重新定價的泡沫。

I described it that way because during this time, we've seen, to your point, a very accentuated rise in inflation. We've now seen a partial reduction in inflation. And that's not really had a large or substantial effect to our general fee rates or our -- or servicing fees. And so it's been -- I think it's not particularly determinative of that.

我這樣描述是因為在這段時間裡，正如您所說，我們已經看到通膨急劇上升。我們現在看到通貨膨脹有所下降。這並沒有真正對我們的一般費率或我們的服務費產生很大或實質的影響。所以我認為這並不是特別決定性的。

In terms of our fee schedules, you're right, the fee schedules have several components. They have asset-based. There's an asset under custody basis for some of the fees, which is about half. There are some transactional fees. There are just some flat fees. There are some per-account fees. And those usually end up being negotiated as a package. It's not that when there's a -- when we have negotiations, that one particular part of that package is treated very differently. We have large, sophisticated clients. They think of it as a package. And to be honest, they're looking for a fair set of -- a fair amount of fees so that, as a partnership, which lasts often 10, 15, 20, in some cases, 30, 40 years, right, that they feel they're getting value and that they feel that we, as a custodian, can deliver on what their expectations are. And so it comes to be a reasonable accommodation, I think, in our minds, in their minds.

就我們的費用表而言，您是對的，費用表由幾個組成部分組成。他們以資產為基礎。部分費用以資產託管為基礎，約佔一半。有一些交易費用。只有一些固定費用。每個帳戶都有一些費用。這些通常最終會作為一個整體進行談判。這並不是說當我們進行談判時，該計劃的某個特定部分會受到非常不同的對待。我們擁有龐大且經驗豐富的客戶。他們將其視為一個包。說實話，他們正在尋找一套公平的——相當數額的費用，這樣，作為一種夥伴關係，這種夥伴關係通常會持續10 年、15 年、20 年，在某些情況下，30 年、 40 年，對吧，他們覺得他們正在獲得價值，並且他們覺得我們作為託管人可以實現他們的期望。因此，我認為，在我們看來，在他們看來，這是合理的安排。

Next question will be from Ken Usdin at Jefferies.

下一個問題將由 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin 提出。

Just one follow-up on just the servicing fee algorithm. So with all the commentary you've made and you show us the good detail about the business wins and the fees to come on and we know about the headwinds, some cyclical, some due to deconversion, do you have a line of sight when we can really start to see that back office line start to move up in a positive way? And I know we have to consider the middle office and the whole front office kit as a together thing. But that's still the biggest line, and that's still kind of flattish on a year-over-year basis with all the things we talked about. But is there any path forward where you can kind of see some of those headwinds abating and some of the growth starting to come on and transitions that we can see a better growth rate overall?

只是服務費算法的後續行動。因此，透過您所做的所有評論，您向我們展示了有關業務勝利和即將發生的費用的詳細信息，我們了解逆風，有些是周期性的，有些是由於去轉換造成的，當我們真的可以開始看到後台部門開始以積極的方式上升嗎？我知道我們必須將中台和整個前台套件視為一個整體。但這仍然是最大的一條線，而且與我們討論的所有事情相比，這仍然是持平的。但有沒有什麼前進的道路可以讓你看到一些逆風減弱、一些成長開始出現以及我們可以看到更好的整體成長率的轉變？

Yes. Ken, why don't I start here? The transition, I know it feels like it's been going on forever, but that will basically abate. And the effect of that will go away, more or less go away next year, assuming no other changes on the client side. So a headwind goes to 0.

是的。肯，我為什麼不從這裡開始呢？我知道這種轉變感覺就像一直持續，但這種情況基本上會減弱。假設客戶端沒有其他變化，這種影響將會消失，明年或多或少就會消失。所以逆風變成0。

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, you've seen -- you saw the sales performance last year. You're seeing the sales performance this year. That's building up the to-be-installed business. That still remains very, very high for us. Part of it is some complicated kinds of Alpha clients that they will install, they are installing. They typically tend to install in waves and tranches. So we'll make progress against that. But I would note from sales performance last year and it continued in the quarter, there's a fair amount of back office in some of these recent sales, which just installs faster.

其次，也許更重要的是，您已經看到了去年的銷售表現。您看到了今年的銷售業績。這就是建立待安裝業務。對我們來說，這個數字仍然非常非常高。其中一部分是他們將安裝、正在安裝的一些複雜的 Alpha 用戶端。它們通常傾向於以波浪和分段的形式安裝。因此，我們將在這方面取得進展。但我要指出的是，從去年的銷售業績以及本季的銷售業績來看，最近的一些銷售中有相當多的後台，只是安裝速度更快。

And so we're quite optimistic about the opportunities here in fee revenue growth, particularly servicing fee revenue growth, as you overcome headwinds, but more importantly, start to reap the benefits of what we've sold in Alpha, what we sold in back office and get those installed.

因此，當您克服逆風時，我們對費用收入成長的機會非常樂觀，特別是服務費收入成長，但更重要的是，開始收穫我們在 Alpha 中銷售的產品和我們在後面銷售的產品的好處辦公室並安裝它們。

And Ken, it's Eric. I would just add that we've had these client activity headwinds that we described, which is a mix of kind of risk-off sentiment, which has led to lower transactions through the custodial accounts. And then we've described this shift towards a cash mix, right? We don't see those just continuing at the same pace. We see that as somewhat cyclical. You'd expect -- I don't think we generally expect much more cash to be on hand with clients. There are -- I think there's a case to be made that cash levels of client should actually start to get deployed over the next year and could even be neutral or a possible tailwind.

肯，是埃里克。我想補充一點，我們遇到了我們所描述的客戶活動阻力，這是一種避險情緒的混合體，導致透過託管帳戶的交易減少。然後我們描述了向現金組合的轉變，對吧？我們不認為這些只是以同樣的速度繼續下去。我們認為這有點週期性。你可能會想到——我認為我們通常不會期望客戶手頭上有更多現金。我認為有理由認為，客戶的現金水準實際上應該在明年開始部署，甚至可能是中性的或可能是順風的。

So I think we've been going through a bit of a cyclical phase here on those environmental and activity type and mix headwinds. And I think without those, you could then see through to some of what Ron described around sales, installation and the underlying growth of the franchise.

因此，我認為我們在環境和活動類型以及混合逆風方面經歷了一些週期性階段。我認為，如果沒有這些，你就可以了解羅恩所描述的有關銷售、安裝和特許經營的潛在增長的一些內容。

Okay. And one follow-up then is also we can see the wins and what you put on and the yet-to-be-installed to Ron's point. Can you just talk about just the pipeline? Is the pipeline continuing to strengthen? Is it consistent? Have you now put more of that pipeline through? Where do we stand on that?

好的。接下來的一個步驟是，我們還可以看到勝利以及您所穿的衣服以及尚未安裝到羅恩的觀點的內容。能只談談管道嗎？管道是否繼續加強？是否一致？現在您已經投入更多的管道了嗎？我們對此持什麼立場？

Yes. Ken, I mean, I think what you should have heard from us today is that we have a sales target that we talked about in January. We're standing by that sales target. That's significantly up from last year, which was significantly up from the year before. So I mean, you get there because of the pipeline. So we're encouraged by our pipeline.

是的。肯，我的意思是，我想您今天應該從我們這裡聽到的是，我們有一月份討論過的銷售目標。我們堅持這個銷售目標。與去年相比，這一數字大幅上升，與前年相比，這一數字也大幅上升。所以我的意思是，你到達那裡是因為管道。因此，我們對我們的管道感到鼓舞。

And at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ron for closing remarks.

此時，我想將電話轉回給羅恩，讓他發表結束語。

Well, thanks to all of you on the call for joining us.

好的，感謝所有參加電話會議的人加入我們。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您的出席。此時，我們確實要求您斷開線路。