殼牌 (SHEL) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Royal Dutch Shell 2020 Q3 live Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to our first speaker, Mr. Ben Van Beurden. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎來到荷蘭皇家殼牌 2020 年第三季度現場問答環節。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想把電話轉給我們的第一位發言人，Ben Van Beurden 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much, Anna, and ladies and gentlemen, welcome, and thank you very much for joining us today. I really hope that you like the flexibility of being able to -- listening to the video of the results presentation ahead of this call. And please also provide your feedback to the IR team on this new format that we have for you.

非常感謝，安娜，女士們，先生們，歡迎並非常感謝你們今天加入我們。我真的希望您喜歡這種靈活性——在本次電話會議之前收聽結果演示視頻。還請就我們為您提供的這種新格式向 IR 團隊提供您的反饋。

But now it's a time to focus on questions and answers in this particular session. So let's, first of all, take another look at the disclaimer. And then before we move to questions, I actually would like to have a few key messages brought across.

但現在是時候在這個特定的會議中專注於問題和答案了。因此，首先讓我們再看一下免責聲明。然後在我們開始提問之前，我實際上想傳達一些關鍵信息。

First, the Shell of today is resilient. Our portfolio and our operations have shown remarkable resilience in incredibly challenging times. The measures that we took to preserve cash have paid off and made it stronger, both operationally as well as financially. We have been consistently generating more operating cash flow than our peers.

首先，今天的殼牌是有彈性的。在充滿挑戰的時代，我們的投資組合和運營表現出了非凡的韌性。我們為保留現金而採取的措施已見成效，並使其在運營和財務方面都更加強大。我們一直比同行產生更多的經營現金流。

Secondly, the Shell of tomorrow is growing. We are very well positioned to capture value in the energy transition with the strong position we start from and the strategic direction that we have chosen. Our portfolio delivers strong performance today and is advantageously positioned to deliver strong performance also into the future.

其次，明天的殼牌正在成長。憑藉我們的強勢地位和我們選擇的戰略方向，我們完全有能力在能源轉型中獲取價值。我們的產品組合在今天提供了強勁的性能，並且處於有利地位，可以在未來提供強勁的性能。

We already are market leaders in businesses that are key for the energy transition. We lead the market in LNG. We're also the market leader in our customer-facing marketing businesses. So we are ahead. We have a portfolio here today that others aspire to have in years from now.

我們已經是能源轉型關鍵業務的市場領導者。我們引領液化天然氣市場。我們還是面向客戶的營銷業務的市場領導者。所以我們領先。我們今天在這裡擁有其他人渴望在多年後擁有的投資組合。

And third, we offer a compelling investment case, today and tomorrow. We have a clear framework for our investment case. Today, we have given you more insights in our priorities for cash allocation. So we are announcing an increase of 4% in our dividends this quarter, but we're also announcing a target milestone for our net debt of $65 billion for the near term. And once we have achieved this milestone, we target to further increase shareholder distribution. So we are not offering the promise of future growth, but also increasing shareholder distributions for the near term.

第三，我們在今天和明天提供了一個令人信服的投資案例。我們的投資案例有一個清晰的框架。今天，我們為您提供了有關現金分配優先事項的更多見解。因此，我們宣布本季度的股息增加 4%，但我們還宣布了近期淨債務 650 億美元的目標里程碑。一旦我們實現了這一里程碑，我們的目標是進一步增加股東分配。因此，我們不是在提供未來增長的承諾，而是在短期內增加股東分配。

And with that, let's go to your questions. So please, can we have 1 or 2 of each, so that everyone will have the opportunity to ask a question. Anna, back to you.

有了這個，讓我們回答你的問題。那麼，我們能否各派 1 或 2 人，以便每個人都有機會提問。安娜，回到你身邊。

(Operator Instructions) We take our first question from Clint Oswald from Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們從伯恩斯坦的克林特奧斯瓦爾德那裡提出我們的第一個問題。

The first question, please. I mean, I like your new message today around shareholders having first dibs on cash flow before the growth CapEx and especially the kind of new energy CapEx. But I think it's an incredible shift in confidence in just 6 months when you talked about significant mid- and long-term uncertainty in a potentially changed world just 6 months ago. So I'd love to hear a little bit more about what supports this really 180-degree turnaround, which has fed into your dividend decision? Or has it just been the cash flow generation has genuinely surprised you over the last 6 months across the group?

第一個問題，請。我的意思是，我喜歡你今天關於股東在增長資本支出之前優先考慮現金流的新信息，尤其是那種新能源資本支出。但我認為，就在 6 個月前，當你談到一個可能發生變化的世界中存在重大的中長期不確定性時，這在短短 6 個月內就發生了令人難以置信的信心轉變。所以我很想听聽更多關於是什麼支持這個真正的 180 度轉變，這已經影響了你的股息決定？還是過去 6 個月整個集團產生的現金流真的讓您感到驚訝？

And then secondly, please, I had a specific question around the other message on customer-focused businesses and aiming to reduce the emission. So I received my Shell Go offer this week to pay a little bit more for each liter of fuel over here in the U.K. So I can see what you're up to. But I wanted to ask about carbon-neutral LNG. So on a Scope 3 basis, and I can see what you've been up to, but with the carbon price assumptions I'm using, it feels relatively expensive to offer these.

其次，我有一個關於以客戶為中心的業務和旨在減少排放的其他信息的具體問題。所以我這週收到了 Shell Go 的報價，要求我在英國為每升燃料多付一點錢。所以我可以看看你在做什麼。但我想問一下碳中性液化天然氣。因此，在範圍 3 的基礎上，我可以看到你在做什麼，但根據我使用的碳價格假設，提供這些感覺相對昂貴。

So question is, I mean, could you talk around the appetite for these products? Are you receiving any type of premium pricing yet or some cost pass-through? Or perhaps the carbon offset price I'm using is just way too high and you could offer me a more realistic number, please?

所以問題是，我的意思是，你能談談對這些產品的胃口嗎？您是否收到任何類型的溢價定價或一些成本轉嫁？或者我使用的碳抵消價格可能太高了，你可以給我一個更現實的數字，好嗎？

Thank you. That's all great questions to start off with. And let me take them both, actually.

謝謝。這些都是很好的開始問題。實際上，讓我把它們都帶走。

So first of all, the 6 months, what has happened in the interim. I think it is fair to say that we acted with good prudence 6 months ago. We did not see the clarity of the way forward in the way that we can see now. So indeed, 6 months does make a difference to understand how this pandemic is playing out. And we all know, of course, we are not yet out of the woods when it comes to the economy and the damage that the pandemic can still cause to it. But what we do know is that the measures that we took 6 months ago indeed to reset the dividend, which was very painful, but also to bring down our capital cost, to bring down our operating costs, these measures have really stabilized the company in terms of financial resilience.

所以首先，這 6 個月，在此期間發生了什麼。我認為可以公平地說，我們 6 個月前的行為非常謹慎。我們沒有像現在這樣清楚地看到前進的道路。因此，確實，6 個月的時間確實對了解這種流行病的發展情況有所不同。當然，我們都知道，在經濟和大流行病仍可能對其造成的損害方面，我們還沒有走出困境。但我們知道的是，我們 6 個月前採取的措施確實重置了股息，這非常痛苦，但也降低了我們的資本成本，降低了我們的運營成本，這些措施確實穩定了公司財務彈性方面。

We also know how the company operates in very, very difficult circumstances. And as you will have seen, 2 quarters in a row, it operates very well under very difficult circumstances. So it's a different level of confidence that we have in the resilience of the company going forward.

我們也知道公司在非常非常困難的情況下是如何運作的。正如你所看到的，連續兩個季度，它在非常困難的情況下運行得非常好。因此，我們對公司未來的彈性有不同程度的信心。

And then we set -- let's be very clear, even though we reset the dividend, we offered a progressive dividend. And even though we have set the dividend lower, we are also looking at what this means for the future. So at this point in time, I think we can say with confidence, not only how we go forward in terms of the direction, but also what it means for the payout that we can give to shareholders. And if you have a progressive dividend, you better have a progressive dividend, and that is what we are confirming today.

然後我們設置 - 讓我們非常清楚，即使我們重置股息，我們也提供了累進股息。即使我們將股息設定得較低，我們也在研究這對未來意味著什麼。所以在這個時間點，我想我們可以有信心地說，不僅是我們在方向上如何前進，還有我們可以給股東的派息意味著什麼。如果你有累進股息，你最好有累進股息，這就是我們今天要確認的。

On the carbon neutrality, yes, indeed. First of all, thank you very much for stepping into our Go program, which indeed means in the U.K. that we will offset the carbon emissions of your car. But indeed, also, increasingly, we see this taking up in other parts of our business, not only countries. It's very successfully launched, by the way, in Germany and Austria and Switzerland. And we are doing it also in Canada next month, but indeed also in LNG. And we have, I think by now, sold 6 cargoes, carbon neutral. And we combine that with our nature-based solutions portfolio that we have, and customers want it. And that is another reason why we have confidence that there is money to be made in the energy transition also in the more traditional parts of our business.

關於碳中和，是的，確實如此。首先，非常感謝您參與我們的 Go 計劃，這在英國確實意味著我們將抵消您汽車的碳排放量。但事實上，我們也越來越多地看到這種情況出現在我們業務的其他部分，而不僅僅是國家。順便說一下，它在德國、奧地利和瑞士的推出非常成功。下個月我們也在加拿大這樣做，但實際上也在液化天然氣中這樣做。我想到目前為止，我們已經售出了 6 批碳中性貨物。我們將其與我們擁有的基於自然的解決方案組合相結合，客戶也需要它。這也是我們有信心在能源轉型中以及在我們業務的更傳統部分也能賺錢的另一個原因。

Thanks for that first opening question.

感謝您提出的第一個開場白問題。

The next question comes from Thomas Adolff from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Thomas Adolff。

Two questions from me as well. Just firstly, on your net debt target, what I saw magical about this $65 billion, does it allow you to keep a AA in a reasonable oil price environment? And then linked to that, the new distribution policy, is the idea also to keep the cash dividend burden largely unchanged as the buyback is playing in an increasingly important role?

我也有兩個問題。首先，關於你的淨債務目標，我看到這 650 億美元的神奇之處，它是否允許你在合理的油價環境中保持 AA？然後與此相關的是，新的分配政策是否也隨著回購發揮越來越重要的作用而保持現金股息負擔基本不變？

And secondly, your comment on LNG. You obviously are already the largest player amongst the publicly listed companies. And if we assume LNG demand growth, I'd say, 5% per annum in the next 10 years, which is obviously slower than the 10% we've seen over the period 2017, 2019, and you want to grow in line with the market, that essentially means doubling your business because you need 40 million tonnes of new capacity and you still have about 20 million of expiries. And I was just wondering whether that's even feasible with the opportunities that you have.

其次，您對液化天然氣的評論。你們顯然已經是上市公司中最大的參與者。如果我們假設 LNG 需求在未來 10 年以每年 5% 的速度增長，這顯然低於我們在 2017 年和 2019 年期間看到的 10%，並且您希望增長與市場，這實質上意味著將您的業務翻一番，因為您需要 4000 萬噸的新產能，而您仍有大約 2000 萬噸的到期產能。我只是想知道，如果你有這樣的機會，這是否可行。

Thanks very much, Thomas. Let me take the second question. Jessica will take the first one, which, by the way, was a question we anticipated.

非常感謝，托馬斯。讓我回答第二個問題。傑西卡會選第一個，順便說一句，這是我們預料到的問題。

We said we will grow with the market. We see the market for LNG growth. We probably are a little bit less sort of conservative in our growth outlook. We've been talking about 4% or 3% to 4%, depending a little bit what time frame you look at. And we want to participate in that growth. It doesn't necessarily mean that we match it percent for percent. But in a growing market, you will want to continue to invest.

我們說我們將與市場一起成長。我們看到液化天然氣增長的市場。我們對增長前景的看法可能不那麼保守。我們一直在談論 4% 或 3% 到 4%，具體取決於您所看的時間範圍。我們希望參與這種增長。這並不一定意味著我們將它百分比匹配。但在不斷增長的市場中，您會希望繼續投資。

On the other hand, LNG are very long-dated assets, so you want to make sure that the investment decisions you take can stand the test of time. And the test of time in LNG decisions are many decades, unlike, for instance, a deepwater investment.

另一方面，液化天然氣是非常長期的資產，因此您要確保您做出的投資決定能夠經得起時間的考驗。液化天然氣決策的時間考驗是幾十年，不像深水投資。

So we will grow with the market, not necessarily matching the market, but we believe, indeed, this is a good proposition for us to continue to invest in.

所以我們將與市場一起成長，不一定與市場相匹配，但我們相信，這確實是我們繼續投資的好提議。

Jessica, on the $65 billion?

傑西卡，650 億美元？

Great. Thanks, Thomas, for your question. So the $65 billion net debt target is, as you said, a threshold number for us to indicate when we're comfortably within AA metrics. We've not changed our position. We're looking to strengthen our balance sheet. That's been unchanged for the last several years. We found gearing was a little bit messy because there are a number of accounting elements that come into play, both on the numerator and the denominator. So we wanted to have a more clear and simple target to communicate with the market. But of course, we look at a variety of metrics and ways of considering our balance sheet. The $65 billion is the threshold number that we think we need to achieve to be comfortable in the AA metrics.

偉大的。謝謝，托馬斯，你的問題。因此，正如您所說，650 億美元的淨債務目標是我們表明我們何時處於 AA 指標範圍內的門檻數字。我們沒有改變立場。我們正在尋求加強我們的資產負債表。這在過去幾年裡一直沒有改變。我們發現槓桿有點混亂，因為有許多會計要素在起作用，包括分子和分母。所以我們希望有一個更明確和簡單的目標來與市場溝通。但當然，我們會考慮各種指標和方式來考慮我們的資產負債表。 650 億美元是我們認為我們需要達到的門檻數字，才能在 AA 指標中感到滿意。

The next question comes from Christyan Malek from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

First of all, thank you for some positive news flow in the midst of everything going on. A few questions from me. First, on the fixed variable cash return, so to speak. Once the $65 billion net debt threshold is delivered, what will determine how the variable distribution component up to 20% to 30% of cash flow's fulfilled between buybacks and additional special dividends?

首先，感謝您在所有發生的事情中提供一些積極的消息。我有幾個問題。首先，可以說是固定可變現金回報。一旦達到 650 億美元的淨債務門檻，什麼將決定可變分配部分如何在回購和額外特別股息之間實現現金流量的 20% 至 30%？

Secondly, on capital allocation and CapEx, is the $19 billion to $22 billion per annum primarily orientated to 2021? I assume it is. But -- based on executing on net debt reduction targets. But how should we think about allocation priorities and drivers of medium-term CapEx beyond that, including potential upward pressure on new energy spend as energy transition accelerates, especially on the lower debt, higher macro conditions?

其次，在資本配置和資本支出方面，每年 190 億至 220 億美元是否主要針對 2021 年？我想是的。但是——基於執行淨債務削減目標。但除此之外，我們應該如何考慮分配優先級和中期資本支出的驅動因素，包括隨著能源轉型加速對新能源支出的潛在上行壓力，尤其是在債務較低、宏觀條件較高的情況下？

And the third and final question, apologies, is you've identified 9 core upstream regions and disposal implications. Based on full year '20 upstream production of around 2.45 million BOE a day, how much of that volume base is accounted for by the 9 identified core regions? In other words, what portion of the remaining asset base becomes directly non-core? And what parameters could determine the disposal strategy around those residual positions?

第三個也是最後一個問題，抱歉，您已經確定了 9 個核心上游區域和處置影響。根據 20 年全年每天約 245 萬桶油當量的上游產量，9 個確定的核心區域佔該產量基數的多少？換句話說，剩餘資產基礎中有多少直接變成了非核心資產？哪些參數可以決定圍繞這些剩餘頭寸的處置策略？

Okay. Thanks very much, Christyan. I will take the questions in reverse order and do 3 and 2, and Jessica will talk about 1. So first of all, on the core and lean. So for us, core and lean is indeed a very important distinction to make sure that we pay the attention and look after the most important assets with the biggest running room and the most advantageous positions, but indeed, the most CapEx and the most attention. So 80% of our cash flow comes from these 9 core positions. More than 80% of our investment will go in there as well, including, by the way, exploration expense.

好的。非常感謝，克里斯蒂安。我將以相反的順序回答問題並做 3 和 2，Jessica 將談論 1。所以首先，關於核心和精益。所以對我們來說，核心和精益確實是一個非常重要的區別，以確保我們關注和照顧具有最大運行空間和最有利位置的最重要資產，但實際上，資本支出最多，關注度最高。所以我們80%的現金流來自於這9個核心崗位。我們超過 80% 的投資也將投向那裡，順便說一句，包括勘探費用。

So the other ventures that are in the lean model are there for 3 reasons. They could be there, for instance, because they are still in almost incubation mode. So like the Surinames of this world. We just want to make sure that we can develop it, which may well be unsuccessful, by the way. But if we do, indeed, it might become core. It may be that assets are without running room, but we are still quite happy with them. And therefore, we just run them for cash. Or it could well be that we want to ready them for divestment. So don't think for a moment that all the other non-line positions are immediately divestment candidates. That may be, by the way.

因此，精益模型中的其他企業存在的原因有 3 個。例如，它們可能在那裡，因為它們幾乎仍處於孵化模式。就像這個世界的蘇里南人一樣。順便說一句，我們只是想確保我們可以開發它，這很可能會失敗。但如果我們這樣做，它確實可能成為核心。可能是資產沒有運行空間，但我們還是比較滿意的。因此，我們只是為了現金而經營它們。或者很可能是我們想讓他們準備好撤資。所以暫時不要認為所有其他非線職位都是立即撤資的候選人。順便說一句，這可能是。

But it also means that we can flip between core and lean. At some point in time, core assets will go into a twilight zone and will go into the lean portfolio as well. And as I said, the other way around. The production associated with it, I don't have that number to heart. For us, it's indeed more value than volume. But please get back to the IR team who I'm sure can fill you in on that.

但這也意味著我們可以在核心和精益之間切換。在某個時間點，核心資產將進入模糊地帶，也將進入精益投資組合。正如我所說，相反。與之相關的製作，我沒有那個數字。對我們來說，它確實比數量更有價值。但請回到 IR 團隊，我相信他們可以為您提供幫助。

In terms of the capital, so indeed, $19 billion to $22 billion is the sort of near-term spend that we have. About 1/4 of that will go into what we consider now our growth portfolio, so marketing power, bio, hydrogen. That was, by the way, 11% in the last 3 years. So a significant step-up towards growth.

就資本而言，確實，190 億至 220 億美元是我們的短期支出。其中大約 1/4 將進入我們現在考慮的增長組合，即營銷能力、生物、氫。順便說一下，過去 3 年是 11%。因此，這是朝著增長邁出的重要一步。

What we will do with capital in the medium to longer term, well, that depends. I think first of all, we have to get to the $65 billion, then we have to increase shareholder distributions. And then indeed, time will come and we will start with a very measured and disciplined increase in capital, because after all, you want us to grow the value of the company as well. The way that will play out, we will have to ask you to be a bit more patient until February and we can give a bit more update on all of this as well.

從中長期來看，我們將如何處理資本，這取決於情況。我認為首先，我們必須達到 650 億美元，然後我們必須增加股東分配。然後確實，時間會到來，我們將從非常有節制和有紀律的資本增加開始，因為畢竟，你希望我們也能增加公司的價值。最終的結果是，我們將不得不請您在 2 月之前再耐心一點，我們也可以就所有這一切提供更多更新信息。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Great. Christyan, thanks for the question. So what we're offering today in terms of our investment case is growing distributions starting today as well as upside and future shareholder distributions once we increase cash flow from operations. When we reach that milestone of $65 billion of net debt, and we're looking to increase shareholder distributions of 20% to 30%, we continue today to have a bias, if you will, or a belief that share buybacks should play an important part in how we distribute to our shareholders, and to an earlier point made today, ensure that our total distributions are -- remain affordable and do not continue to kind of grow exponentially through time. So that's important for us.

偉大的。克里斯蒂安，謝謝你的提問。因此，就我們的投資案例而言，我們今天提供的是從今天開始增加分配，以及一旦我們增加運營現金流量後的上行和未來股東分配。當我們達到 650 億美元的淨債務這一里程碑時，我們希望將股東分配增加 20% 到 30%，如果你願意的話，我們今天仍然有偏見，或者認為股票回購應該發揮重要作用參與我們如何分配給我們的股東，以及今天早些時候提出的觀點，確保我們的總分配 - 保持負擔得起並且不會隨著時間的推移繼續呈指數增長。所以這對我們很重要。

However, we're going to see where we are at that moment in time, what is appropriate for our shareholders, and we certainly continue to give ourselves the opportunity, the space to look at different dividend levels if that seems more appropriate at that moment in time. So we've retained the optionality, if you will, so that we can be responsive to what the market needs. But share buybacks, I believe, will continue to be an important part of the overall investment case.

然而，我們將及時了解我們目前所處的位置，什麼對我們的股東來說是合適的，我們當然會繼續給自己機會和空間來考慮不同的股息水平，如果那一刻看起來更合適的話及時。因此，如果您願意，我們保留了可選性，以便我們能夠響應市場需求。但我相信，股票回購將繼續成為整體投資案例的重要組成部分。

The next question comes from Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

Appreciate the more condensed format. So I have one question on the Downstream business. If I look at the move you made in the last decade or so as to concentrate refining and focus on these kind of 3 core hubs. So I'm looking at Slide 17, and the one thing that does stand out is Scotford. And I appreciate that's an attractive asset in the sense that it has some very regional specific dynamics. But I imagine if you wanted to sell, there will be good demand for that kind of asset. So it's not really clear to me if that fits in with your longer-term vision for the company. So could you talk a little bit about your commitment to that asset specifically?

欣賞更簡潔的格式。所以我有一個關於下游業務的問題。如果我看一下您在過去十年左右採取的行動，以集中精煉並專注於這 3 個核心樞紐。所以我正在看第 17 張幻燈片，其中最引人注目的是 Scotford。我很欣賞這是一項有吸引力的資產，因為它具有一些非常具有區域性的特定動態。但我想如果你想出售，對這種資產會有很好的需求。所以我不太清楚這是否符合你對公司的長期願景。那麼你能具體談談你對該資產的承諾嗎？

And then the second question is just on the job reductions for 2021, 7,000 to 9,000 people leaving. Is there any -- or can you give a magnitude of the kind of severance payment on a cash basis that we should expect to come out in 2021? Any help on that would be appreciated.

然後第二個問題是關於 2021 年的裁員，7,000 到 9,000 人離開。有沒有 - 或者你能給出我們應該期望在 2021 年推出的那種以現金為基礎的遣散費的數量級嗎？對此的任何幫助將不勝感激。

Great. Yes. Thanks, Biraj, for these 2 questions. I'll take the Scotford one. Jessica will take the second one on severance.

偉大的。是的。謝謝 Biraj 提出這兩個問題。我要 Scotford 的。傑西卡將接受第二個遣散費。

So indeed, Scotford is a high-quality asset. First of all, it is a very advantaged asset in the way it's configured in terms of both the Upstream value chain, but also the Downstream value chain. It plays very well into what we consider to be an advantaged envelope in that part of Canada. By the way, an envelope where we have also a strong branded position.

因此，的確，斯科特福德是一項優質資產。首先，就上游價值鍊和下游價值鏈的配置方式而言，它是一項非常有優勢的資產。它很好地融入了我們認為是加拿大那部分地區的優勢信封。順便說一句，我們在信封上也有很強的品牌地位。

And then the other thing is you have to bear in mind, Scotford is integrated with chemicals. We do have a MEG and styrene position that is fully integrated with the refinery, which in turn, by the way, is still integrated with the integrator, with the upgrader.

然後另一件事是你必須記住，Scotford 與化學品融為一體。我們確實有一個與煉油廠完全集成的 MEG 和苯乙烯位置，順便說一下，煉油廠仍然與集成商、升級器集成。

So it is a high-quality asset. There is no need for us to despair about the future of that asset. We can trade around it in reasonable positions as well, even though it has no access to open water. So therefore, there is -- it fits within the portfolio that we see for the future.

所以它是一種優質資產。我們沒有必要對該資產的未來感到絕望。我們也可以在合理的位置圍繞它進行交易，即使它無法進入開闊水域。因此，它符合我們對未來的投資組合。

Jessica, on the redundancies?

傑西卡，關於裁員？

Raj, thanks for the question. We are finalizing the complete design of the organization over the coming months. So we'll have better insight on that final number in the coming months. We're expecting somewhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in severance costs. That will be between 2021 and 2022, just depending in terms of the timing of how it's ultimately implemented, but that's the number.

拉吉，謝謝你的提問。我們將在未來幾個月內完成該組織的完整設計。因此，我們將在未來幾個月對最終數字有更好的了解。我們預計遣散費在 15 億美元到 20 億美元之間。這將在 2021 年到 2022 年之間，具體取決於最終實施的時間，但這就是數字。

The next question comes from Ryan Todd from Simmons Energy.

下一個問題來自 Simmons Energy 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe the first one. I mean, marketing was very strong in the quarter. Can you maybe talk about some of the near-term drivers of that? And longer term, you've grown the marketing earnings at almost 10% a year over the last 8 years. Any thoughts on how you see underlying growth over the next 5-plus years and where you see that as a normalized share of Shell earnings going forward?

也許是第一個。我的意思是，本季度的營銷非常強勁。你能談談一些近期的驅動因素嗎？從長遠來看，在過去 8 年中，您的營銷收入每年增長近 10%。關於您如何看待未來 5 年多的潛在增長以及您將其視為殼牌未來收益的正常份額有何想法？

And then maybe for a second question, you have multiple refining assets for sale, and obviously, you have a long-term strategy. You said here to focus on a smaller number of large-scale parts. The outlook is particularly challenging right now for refining, with increasing pressure on rationalization of capacity and not a lot of obvious buyers out there. So how do you think about divestment versus rationalization and how you may approach that over the next couple of years?

然後可能是第二個問題，你有多個煉油資產待售，顯然，你有一個長期戰略。你在這裡說要關注數量較少的大型零件。目前煉油前景尤其具有挑戰性，產能合理化的壓力越來越大，而且沒有很多明顯的買家。那麼，您如何看待撤資與合理化，以及在未來幾年內您將如何處理？

Okay. Two very good questions. I'll take the first. Jessica will take the second. So yes, indeed, you're right, good observation. We have been growing the performance of our marketing business, which includes retail, our B2B sales, our lubricant sales, but also things like bitumen, sulfur and other products that come out of refining base, if you like. We have been growing it very consistently year after year. As a matter of fact, if you look at the last month, we made in a month what we used to make in a year 15 years ago. And that is not because it just happen to be a very good month, it is because we have continuously upgraded that business by, first of all, growing it in size, growing it in scope, bringing in things like non-fuel retailing, but also better margin management, better value propositions, et cetera, et cetera. And we have high-graded quite a bit by getting out of markets where we could not be #1 or #2, and in some cases, even getting out of #2 market.

好的。兩個很好的問題。我要第一個。傑西卡會拿第二個。所以是的，確實，你是對的，很好的觀察。我們一直在提高營銷業務的績效，其中包括零售、B2B 銷售、潤滑油銷售，還包括瀝青、硫磺和其他來自煉油基地的產品。年復一年，我們一直在非常穩定地發展它。事實上，如果你看看上個月，我們在一個月內完成了 15 年前過去一年的製作。這並不是因為它恰好是一個非常好的月份，而是因為我們不斷升級該業務，首先是擴大規模，擴大範圍，引入非燃料零售等業務，但是還有更好的利潤管理，更好的價值主張等等。通過退出我們無法成為#1 或#2 的市場，我們已經獲得了相當高的評價，在某些情況下，甚至退出了#2 市場。

So does that trend continue? Well, I think so. It -- I can't predict at what clip it will continue, but we see marketing very much as a platform for growth into the future, upon which we can also build our biofuels business, which relies on the fact that we are the largest marketer of jet fuel in the world as well. Or our hydrogen business, where we are also in a leading position, small, but nevertheless, leading in the industry. So marketing, for us, is more than just the traditional fuels retailing. It is actually a transition into the future for us. I think it will continue for some time to come, but it will change in its makeup.

那麼這種趨勢會繼續嗎？好吧，我想是的。它——我無法預測它將以何種速度持續下去，但我們將營銷視為未來增長的一個平台，我們還可以在此基礎上建立我們的生物燃料業務，這取決於我們是最大的也是世界噴氣燃料的營銷商。或者我們的氫氣業務，我們在這方面也處於領先地位，規模雖小，但在行業中處於領先地位。因此，對我們而言，營銷不僅僅是傳統的燃料零售。對我們來說，這實際上是向未來的過渡。我認為它會持續一段時間，但它的構成會發生變化。

The near-term drivers are indeed, first of all, better margin management that we have seen, higher penetration of premium fuels, more than 20%. And we are also seeing an increase in the basket size in our average retail customer visit in our site. So multiple number of drivers, some of which will indeed be specific for the pandemic, but many of which will turn into longer-term trends into the future.

近期的驅動因素確實首先是我們所看到的更好的利潤率管理，優質燃料的更高滲透率，超過 20%。我們還看到，我們網站上的平均零售客戶訪問量增加了。如此多的驅動因素，其中一些確實是針對大流行的，但其中許多將變成未來的長期趨勢。

Great. So in terms of the refining portfolio and how we're going to manage the transition of that portfolio, there's a number of different levers that will be pulled. The first one is retaining the refinery capacity in the key markets tied to our chemical business, and that's where the 6 energy and Chemical Parks will be created. For those that don't make it into the parts, either they're not the right asset or not in the right location, we're going to look to divest. We recognize the market is not great at the moment in terms of divesting assets. We've had success in the past in difficult markets, so I wouldn't say that's not possible. We certainly believe that can be possible, but we recognize it's difficult. If it's not possible, we'll consider closing and shutting down. That's, ultimately, the last option we'd like to pull. And then there's another piece as well in the portfolio where we'll be shifting those to different types of operations, which we're doing in the Philippines today, and moving that to a terminal operation.

偉大的。因此，就煉油組合以及我們將如何管理該組合的過渡而言，將採用許多不同的槓桿。第一個是保留與我們的化工業務相關的主要市場的煉油能力，這就是將創建 6 個能源和化工園區的地方。對於那些沒有進入零件的人，要么他們不是正確的資產，要么不在正確的位置，我們將尋求剝離。我們認識到，就剝離資產而言，目前市場並不樂觀。我們過去在困難的市場中取得過成功，所以我不會說這是不可能的。我們當然相信這是可能的，但我們也承認這很困難。如果不可能，我們會考慮關閉和關閉。最終，這是我們想要取消的最後一個選項。然後在投資組合中還有另一部分，我們將把這些轉移到不同類型的業務，我們今天在菲律賓所做的，並將其轉移到終端業務。

So there's a number of levers we'll pull. In all cases, we're looking to maximize value. We think we've got a lot of optionality in terms of how we manage over the next couple of years. We're not dependent on divestment proceeds over the next couple of years to deliver our strategy. So I think we're well-placed to do this in a managed way and a strategic way to end up with the position that we want with our energy and chemical parks in the future.

因此，我們將採取一些措施。在所有情況下，我們都希望實現價值最大化。我們認為，就未來幾年的管理方式而言，我們有很多選擇餘地。我們不依賴於未來幾年的撤資收益來實施我們的戰略。因此，我認為我們完全有能力以一種有管理的方式和一種戰略方式來做到這一點，以最終達到我們未來想要的能源和化工園區的地位。

The next question comes from Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

It's Michele. I'm sorry for asking one more question on your cash distribution. I very clearly see the benefit of building a conservative balance sheet. But I'm wondering, at the time when bonds are very, very highly valued and the decades low yield, and your equity holders are suffering an unprecedented crisis of confidence and low valuation, I wonder whether from a technical standpoint, it wouldn't be better to fast forward the start of the buyback program versus financial degearing.

是米歇爾。很抱歉又問了一個關於現金分配的問題。我非常清楚地看到建立保守的資產負債表的好處。但是我在想，在債券估值非常非常高，收益率幾十年都處於低位，你的股權持有人正遭受前所未有的信心危機和低估值的時候，我想從技術角度來看，是否不會與金融去槓桿化相比，提前啟動回購計劃更好。

And again, my question is very much tactical. It's not driven by the priorities, which I think are fair for the long term in terms of balance sheet, dividends and buyback. But with this level of share price, wouldn't it be better to effectively start earlier?

再一次，我的問題是非常戰術性的。它不受優先事項的驅動，我認為優先事項在資產負債表、股息和回購方面從長遠來看是公平的。但在這個股價水平下，早點有效啟動不是更好嗎？

And then my second question, if I may, also related to cash distribution is the range of 20% to 30% is actually quite wide for cash distribution. Could you perhaps shed a bit more light on what would be the key elements that would drive you to the top or to the bottom of that range?

然後我的第二個問題，如果可以的話，也與現金分配有關，20% 到 30% 的範圍實際上對於現金分配來說相當廣泛。您能否更清楚地說明將您推向該範圍頂部或底部的關鍵因素是什麼？

Yes. Thanks very much. Let me take the second question, Michele, and then Jessica will talk about the first one.

是的。非常感謝。讓我回答第二個問題，米歇爾，然後傑西卡會談談第一個問題。

It's debatable whether 20% to 30% is wide or narrow. As a matter of fact, as you can imagine, we had a good debate about it in the Board. But ultimately, we very clearly also settled on this range. The bottom of the range, obviously, is roughly where we are today or a little bit higher. The top of the range, of course, we will probably want to reach also at a time when we have a significantly better cash flow performance as well.

20% 到 30% 是寬還是窄是有爭議的。事實上，您可以想像，我們在董事會中就此進行了很好的辯論。但最終，我們非常清楚地也確定了這個範圍。顯然，該範圍的底部大致是我們今天所處的位置或略高一點。當然，我們也可能希望在現金流量表現明顯更好的時候達到該範圍的頂部。

So it -- how we will make the determination. First of all, the cash flow that we will use in the determination of the buybacks will be the cash flow that we will have delivered over the, say, 4 quarters rolling past. And the percentage where we end up, will, of course, be a determination of the confidence into the future. That gives us indeed, arguably, a range of flexibilities. But bear in mind also, Michele, by the time we are in the mode of, indeed, stepping up our distributions to shareholders beyond the progressive dividend, we also still want to be in a mode of further deleveraging the balance sheet. And that brings me to your first question, which Jessica will answer.

所以它 - 我們將如何做出決定。首先，我們將在確定回購時使用的現金流量將是我們在過去的 4 個季度中交付的現金流量。當然，我們最終達到的百分比將決定對未來的信心。可以說，這確實為我們提供了一系列靈活性。但也請記住，米歇爾，當我們確實處於除了累進股息之外加強向股東分配的模式時，我們仍然希望處於進一步去槓桿化資產負債表的模式。這讓我想到你的第一個問題，傑西卡將回答這個問題。

Excellent. Good. So Michele, your tactical representation, I think, is entirely fair, and it's a reasonable question to ask. However, we're here to lead and thrive in the energy transition. And we have a very clear strategy. We believe we have an important role to play.

出色的。好的。所以米歇爾，我認為你的戰術陳述是完全公平的，這是一個合理的問題。然而，我們在這裡引領能源轉型並蓬勃發展。我們有一個非常明確的戰略。我們相信我們可以發揮重要作用。

To some extent, the success of the energy transition will depend, I think, to a large extent, on companies such as ourselves with our capacity, our intellectual capacity, our assets, our knowledge and our experience in energy markets to play a meaningful role in the energy transition. And we can only do that if we're a strong company. And for us, that means having a strong balance sheet, which I think, this year, has really proven to be a very important piece as we go through the energy transition.

我認為，在某種程度上，能源轉型的成功將在很大程度上取決於像我們這樣的公司，我們的能力、我們的智力、我們的資產、我們的知識和我們在能源市場上的經驗能夠發揮有意義的作用在能源轉型中。只有當我們是一家強大的公司時，我們才能做到這一點。對我們來說，這意味著擁有強大的資產負債表，我認為，今年，在我們經歷能源轉型的過程中，這確實被證明是非常重要的一部分。

The volatility that we're exposed to from a commodity perspective, the volatility we've been exposed to from a pandemic perspective, to a large extent, we're able to manage because we're a strong company. And if you look at the level of change that needs to happen and the risks that we'll be exposed to, I firmly believe having a strong balance sheet is fundamental to our ability to deliver our strategy. And I think that's what we're here to do.

從大宗商品的角度來看，我們所面臨的波動，從大流行的角度來看，我們所面臨的波動，在很大程度上，我們能夠管理，因為我們是一家強大的公司。如果你看看需要發生的變化的程度以及我們將面臨的風險，我堅信擁有強大的資產負債表是我們實現戰略能力的基礎。我認為這就是我們要做的。

Next question comes from Irene Himona from Societe General.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

Congratulations on the cash flow performance in the quarter. Ben, you have said yourself in the past that the oil majors are a little bit like big black boxes. And clearly, there's no bigger black box than integration trading optimization. And today, in your presentation, you highlighted that integration as an advantage as you drive the strategy through energy transition.

祝賀本季度的現金流表現。本，你過去曾說過，石油巨頭有點像大黑匣子。顯然，沒有比集成交易優化更大的黑匣子了。今天，在您的演講中，您強調了這種整合是您通過能源轉型推動戰略的優勢。

One of your peers has tried to quantify the value to them of trading. Are you prepared either today or in the February strategy presentation to give us some concrete quantification of that value-added through your integration and your ability to make the value of the portfolio much bigger than the sum of the parts?

您的一位同行試圖量化交易對他們的價值。您是否準備好在今天或在 2 月份的戰略演示中通過您的整合以及您使投資組合的價值遠大於各部分之和的能力向我們提供一些具體的附加值量化？

Thank you, Irene, and thank you for acknowledgment, and thank you for what is indeed a particularly important, but also tough to answer question.

謝謝你，艾琳，謝謝你的認可，謝謝你提出了一個確實特別重要，但也很難回答的問題。

So indeed, our trading and optimization and our supply function, if you like, or business, whatever you like to call it, is absolutely core to the success of our company. It actually makes the magic, in many cases. And quite often, it's very hard to show how that works without disclosing an awful lot of commercially sensitive information.

所以事實上，我們的交易和優化以及我們的供應功能，如果你喜歡，或者業務，無論你喜歡怎麼稱呼它，絕對是我們公司成功的核心。在許多情況下，它實際上創造了魔力。通常情況下，如果不披露大量商業敏感信息，就很難展示它是如何工作的。

But just 2 points. First of all, bear in mind, this is not a speculative trading business, where lots of people take punts on the market and then either turn lucky or unlucky, and we tend to be lucky, clearly, from our track record. That's not the way it works. Basically, what we do is we give our traders and optimizers and schedulers and operational people, the mandate to work together to understand how you can add value, working our molecules and electrons through our assets, through our contracts into our markets. And that gives us opportunities to do things that others can't do.

但是只有2分。首先，請記住，這不是投機交易業務，很多人在市場上押注，然後要么走運，要么走運，從我們的往績來看，我們顯然傾向於走運。這不是它的工作方式。基本上，我們所做的是給我們的交易員、優化員、調度員和運營人員授權，讓他們共同努力，了解如何增加價值，通過我們的資產，通過我們的合同進入我們的市場，使我們的分子和電子運作。這讓我們有機會去做別人做不到的事情。

I'm happy to try again to explain a little bit more anecdotally how these things work. But take, for instance, our LNG business. Everybody understands, if you run a baseload trend line LNG business, you can't get to the results that we make. You get to those results if you are able to continuously reoptimize, reschedule, rearbitrage cargoes in different parts of the world. It is impossible to show exactly what we are doing, unless we want to completely open up our entire trading book, which is something we simply cannot do even if we wanted to.

我很高興再次嘗試更有趣地解釋這些東西是如何工作的。但以我們的液化天然氣業務為例。每個人都明白，如果你經營基本負荷趨勢線液化天然氣業務，你將無法獲得我們所做的結果。如果您能夠在世界不同地區不斷地重新優化、重新安排和重新套利貨物，您就會獲得這些結果。不可能準確地顯示我們在做什麼，除非我們想完全打開我們的整個交易賬戶，這是即使我們想做也做不到的事情。

But I take your point, we have to tell a better story how trading and optimization adds value that is clearly visible, but not necessarily always understood in its intricate details. Thanks, Irene.

但我同意你的觀點，我們必須講述一個更好的故事，即交易和優化如何增加清晰可見的價值，但不一定總是在其錯綜複雜的細節中被理解。謝謝，艾琳。

The next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotia.

下一個問題來自 Scotia 的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, please. You indicated that 25% of future investment is going to be in the growth area. Can you break down between marketing and the rest of the new future energy business. Over the next 5 years, how does that going to look like?

請教兩個問題。您表示 25% 的未來投資將用於增長領域。你能在市場營銷和新的未來能源業務的其餘部分之間進行分解嗎？在接下來的 5 年裡，它會是什麼樣子？

And in the marketing, how big is the contribution of the lubricant in the -- for the sequential improvement that we see in the third quarter from the second quarter? And also, therefore, your renewable business, the future business, how important is the inorganic acquisition is going to be a part of your strategy to achieve your target over the next 5 years? And are you concerned? Seems like asset price are being bid up.

在營銷方面，潤滑劑對我們在第三季度從第二季度看到的連續改進的貢獻有多大？因此，您的可再生能源業務，未來的業務，無機收購將成為您未來 5 年實現目標戰略的一部分有多重要？你擔心嗎？資產價格似乎被抬高了。

The second question is on the cost reduction, the $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Is there any of that part is already achieved in the third quarter? And can you break down by segment or by the type of expense related to that $2 billion, $2.5 billion?

第二個問題是關於成本削減，即 20 億至 25 億美元。第三季度是否已經實現了這一部分？您能否按細分市場或與 20 億美元、25 億美元相關的費用類型進行細分？

Thank you very much, Paul, and welcome to the call. I like the way you managed to get 5 questions into 2, but we will take them all.

保羅，非常感謝你，歡迎來電。我喜歡你設法將 5 個問題變成 2 個問題的方式，但我們會接受所有問題。

So first of all, talking about marketing, so yes, indeed, 25%, a step-up from where we -- sorry, growth, a step-up from where we used to be. And marketing is a significant part of it. So 11 to 25. The breakdown of that 25% into what is retail, what is lubricants, what is some of the other businesses, how much bio, hydrogen, et cetera, I will have to ask you to be patient and hope to see you back again in February. Let me share a little bit more on how that all works. That's not for today.

所以首先，談論營銷，所以是的，確實是 25%，這是我們 - 抱歉，增長，我們過去的進步。營銷是其中的重要組成部分。所以 11 到 25。將那 25% 細分為零售、潤滑油、其他一些業務、生物、氫等的多少，我將不得不請你耐心等待並希望看到你二月份再來。讓我再分享一下這一切是如何運作的。那不是今天的事。

But what we can say today is that indeed, our customer-facing businesses, so our retail business and our lubricants businesses that you both referred to, have had a very strong third quarter. If you take at retail, as an example, quarter 3 to quarter 3, we have seen 25% growth on a clean basis. Take lubricants, 40% growth. So very significant increases quarter-to-quarter in what are arguably very difficult market circumstances.

但我們今天可以說的是，我們面向客戶的業務，也就是你們都提到的我們的零售業務和潤滑油業務，在第三季度表現非常強勁。如果以零售業為例，從第 3 季度到第 3 季度，我們看到了 25% 的干淨增長。以潤滑油為例，增長 40%。在可以說是非常困難的市場環境下，季度環比增長非常顯著。

Now the other questions on inorganic growth, power, hydrogen, Jessica?

現在關於無機生長、電力、氫氣的其他問題，傑西卡？

Good. So on the inorganic growth for power and hydrogen, in the near term, we're not expecting material inorganic growth. So when we talk about the $19 billion to $22 billion of CapEx, that includes inorganic growth. So clearly, we're not expecting to do anything material in the near term.

好的。因此，在電力和氫的無機增長方面，在短期內，我們預計不會有實質性的無機增長。因此，當我們談論 190 億至 220 億美元的資本支出時，其中包括無機增長。很明顯，我們不期望在短期內做任何實質性的事情。

However, there will be a role for inorganic activity. There already has been for the last couple of years. We were making a number of acquisitions, but relatively small for a company our size. And that will continue to feature as we build out our capabilities, bring in different pieces of the value chain so that we can create truly integrated business models. So that will be an important piece.

然而，無機活性將發揮作用。在過去的幾年裡已經有了。我們進行了多次收購，但對於我們這樣規模的公司來說規模相對較小。隨著我們增強能力，引入價值鏈的不同部分，這樣我們就可以創建真正集成的業務模型，這將繼續發揮作用。所以這將是一個重要的部分。

There was also, I thought, another question, but perhaps not. I'm not seeing it up on the screen.

我想，還有另一個問題，但也許不是。我沒有在屏幕上看到它。

Okay. Thanks, Jessica. Thanks, Paul. If the IR team picked up the other question, then we'll come back to it in a moment.

好的。謝謝，傑西卡。謝謝，保羅。如果 IR 團隊選擇了另一個問題，我們會馬上回來討論。

I'm sorry, Ben, I do remember.

對不起，本，我記得。

Okay. Good.

好的。好的。

This is live, guys, so -- it was on cost.

伙計們，這是現場直播，所以——它是付費的。

Oh, yes. Cost.

哦是的。成本。

That's an important one. So I wanted to talk to it, so that's why. So it's good that I have my paper here for backup.

這是一個重要的。所以我想和它談談，這就是原因。所以很高興我有我的論文作為備份。

So on OpEx, there's a lot happening. So let me just hopefully quickly, but comprehensively cover it. We set an ambition to reduce our OpEx by $3 billion to $4 billion in 2020 in response to the pandemic. We are well on track on delivering that. You can see that in our OpEx costs this quarter. And in last quarter, we're trending down to levels that we haven't seen for years and pulling all levers we can.

所以在 OpEx 上，發生了很多事情。因此，讓我希望快速但全面地涵蓋它。為了應對這一流行病，我們設定了到 2020 年將運營支出減少 30 億美元至 40 億美元的雄心。我們正在順利實現這一目標。您可以在本季度的運營支出中看到這一點。在上個季度，我們正趨向下降到多年未見的水平，並竭盡所能。

A number of the levers that we're pulling aren't necessarily sustainable. There's reduced travel. We do expect at some point in time, that travel will pick up. We've stopped nonessential project works in places like our IT department, et cetera. Again, when things normalize, we'll expect those costs to come back into OpEx.

我們正在拉動的一些槓桿不一定是可持續的。旅行減少了。我們確實希望在某個時間點，旅行會有所增加。我們已經停止了 IT 部門等地方的非必要項目工作。同樣，當事情正常化時，我們預計這些成本會重新回到運營支出中。

In response to that, that's where reshape comes in, and reshape is about how do we structurally change our cost base. And so it's a different set of numbers, that $2 billion to $2.5 billion is a structural reduction in our human resources cost in the company, and that will be coming through into the P&L starting in 2021 and into 2022.

作為回應，這就是重塑的用武之地，重塑是關於我們如何在結構上改變我們的成本基礎。因此，這是一組不同的數字，20 億至 25 億美元是我們公司人力資源成本的結構性減少，這將在 2021 年和 2022 年開始計入損益表。

Okay, great. Thanks for remembering that question because it is indeed important.

好的，太好了。感謝您記住這個問題，因為它確實很重要。

Next question comes from Jon Rigby from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jon Rigby。

Can I ask, just sort of linking CapEx and this -- the new dividend. So you've talked about 4% increase in the dividend. Are you trying to signal there the sort of what you would expect medium-term growth or the perimeter of growth of the business to be, presumably, you want the dividend to sort of grow with the business.

我能問一下，只是將資本支出和這個聯繫起來——新的紅利。所以你談到了 4% 的股息增長。你是否試圖在那裡發出你期望的中期增長或業務增長范圍的信號，大概是你希望股息隨著業務增長而增長。

And to that point, I think Jessica has talked about a CapEx number that preserves the perimeter of the business, and you've also talked about a CapEx number of $30 billion aspirationally, I think, from Management Day 2019. So given all the moving parts on inflation and your kind of outlook. Where does the current sort of $19 billion to $22 billion sit? And how does that relate to what you said before, particularly around growth?

就這一點而言，我認為傑西卡已經談到了保留業務範圍的資本支出數字，我認為，從 2019 年管理日開始，你也雄心勃勃地談到了 300 億美元的資本支出數字。所以考慮到所有的變化關於通貨膨脹和你的前景的部分。目前的 190 億至 220 億美元在哪裡？這與您之前所說的有什麼關係，尤其是在增長方面？

And then just on the Upstream, it's a struggle this one because, I guess, you're saying you're going to invest for value, not volume. But value probably in the Upstream is going to be one of the highest returning businesses potentially for dollar into that business and particularly competitive with renewables. So how do you go about controlling how much capital you want to allocate to that business?

然後就在上游，這是一場鬥爭，因為我猜，你是說你要投資價值，而不是數量。但上游的價值可能會成為回報最高的業務之一，可能會為該業務帶來美元，尤其是與可再生能源的競爭。那麼，您如何控制要分配給該業務的資本數量呢？

Okay. Two good questions. Would you care to take the second one, Jessica? I'll talk a little bit to the first one.

好的。兩個好問題。你願意接受第二個嗎，傑西卡？我會和第一個稍微談談。

So what we want to signal with the 4% DPS growth is, first of all, we are growing our current returns above inflation. So we want it to be a still a meaningful dividend per share growth. And the reason why we want to do this, Jon, is because we want to signal that our investment case is, first of all, resilience of the company, which I hope is on display certainly this quarter, but also through the measures that we have taken. And on that foundation of resilience and performance, we can not only offer growth into the future with our strategy that very much leans into the energy transition and finds value much more at the customer end of things, but at the same time, it is jam today. So a meaningful increase in dividend. That's our investment case: Resilience, jam today, jam tomorrow.

因此，我們想要通過 4% 的 DPS 增長發出的信號是，首先，我們正在將當前回報率提高到高於通脹水平。因此，我們希望它仍然是有意義的每股股息增長。喬恩，我們之所以這樣做，是因為我們想表明我們的投資案例首先是公司的韌性，我希望這肯定會在本季度展示出來，但也可以通過我們採取的措施已經採取。在彈性和性能的基礎上，我們不僅可以通過我們的戰略提供未來的增長，我們的戰略非常傾向於能源轉型，並在事物的客戶端發現更多價值，但與此同時，它是果醬今天。因此，股息顯著增加。這就是我們的投資案例：彈性，今天果醬，明天果醬。

And I hope that indeed over time, we will be able to demonstrate not only the resilience and the 4% and et cetera, but we will also be able to demonstrate that the growth investments that we are making are really meaningful investments that actually can outperform many other parts of our portfolio.

我希望，隨著時間的推移，我們不僅能夠展示彈性和 4% 等等，而且還能證明我們正在進行的增長投資是真正有意義的投資，實際上可以跑贏大市我們產品組合的許多其他部分。

So in terms of how we allocate capital to Upstream, Jessica?

那麼就我們如何向上游分配資金而言，傑西卡？

Great. Jon, a really important question. And to answer it completely, I would need to provide you a complete capital allocation framework. And we're looking to do that in our February update, our Strategy Day. So we'll go into that in more depth in February.

偉大的。喬恩，一個非常重要的問題。為了完整地回答這個問題，我需要為您提供一個完整的資本配置框架。我們希望在我們的 2 月更新戰略日中做到這一點。因此，我們將在 2 月更深入地探討這一點。

But just to give a few pieces of that story now. Of course, we're doing this at the group level. What's it going to take to -- what capital do we need to deploy to deliver the complete strategy. And there's a combination of things that we need to achieve. Of course, we need to provide the highest level of return with that capital. What I'll say is Upstream absolutely can provide compelling returns. It doesn't always.

但現在只是給出這個故事的一些片段。當然，我們是在集團層面這樣做的。需要什麼——我們需要部署什麼資金來交付完整的戰略。我們需要實現多項目標。當然，我們需要用這筆資金提供最高水平的回報。我要說的是，上游絕對可以提供令人信服的回報。它並不總是。

In certain conditions, if you look at 2020, it hasn't necessarily been a great year for returns for the Upstream business. Whereas if you look at our marketing business, we are still able to achieve returns of 15%, 20%, 25%. So we do have other options for our capital. And importantly, increasing amounts of our capital as we think about the growth portion of our business and where marketing sits. It is about reorienting our capital to a place where actually there are very compelling returns.

在某些情況下，如果你看看 2020 年，它不一定是上游業務回報豐厚的一年。而如果你看看我們的營銷業務，我們仍然能夠實現 15%、20%、25% 的回報。所以我們的資本確實有其他選擇。重要的是，隨著我們考慮業務的增長部分和營銷所處的位置，增加我們的資本。這是關於將我們的資本重新定向到一個實際上有非常可觀的回報的地方。

The other piece is, given the business we're in and the energy transition, we are going to have to make bets. We're going to have to build new business models in hydrogen, biofuels, power, et cetera. We'll need to deploy capital to do that. And the challenge there is how do you derisk those business models with the right level of prudence, but with the right level of ambition. And that's the balance we're trying to achieve as we manage capital.

另一方面，考慮到我們所從事的業務和能源轉型，我們將不得不下注。我們將不得不在氫、生物燃料、電力等領域建立新的商業模式。我們需要部署資金來做到這一點。挑戰在於如何以適當的謹慎程度和適當的雄心來降低這些商業模式的風險。這就是我們在管理資本時試圖實現的平衡。

The next question comes from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

I just want to put my comments on, I thought the set up this time around with the presentation upfront and then the Q&A is an improved way to go about it, especially on a busy day of earnings for a lot of us.

我只想發表我的評論，我認為這次的設置是先進行演示，然後是問答環節，這是一種改進的方式，尤其是在我們很多人忙碌的一天。

With that, my question's really focused on a couple of things, and I recognize some of this may come out more in February. But it seemed like Australia was a notable omission in your 9 core areas. I was just wanting to make sure if that was true. And if so, kind of what you think. Does that signal dispositions? Or is that a lean area?

有了這個，我的問題真的集中在幾件事上，我認識到其中一些可能會在 2 月份出現更多。但在您的 9 個核心領域中，澳大利亞似乎是一個明顯的遺漏。我只是想確定這是不是真的。如果是這樣，那就是你的想法。這是否表明處置？或者那是一個貧瘠的地方？

And then my other question was in the presentation, you talked about in the integrated power business -- and these are just my notes, so if I get a little off, I apologize. But that you could build an integrated customer-focused business here, not a commodity business. I was wondering if you could go into a little more detail of what maybe that is and how we should think about it. Does it kind of mean higher returns because it's a little asset-light? Or it's trading kind of in the conventional way on top of an integrated power solution. I was just curious what exactly you were trying to get as a message there.

然後我的另一個問題是在演示文稿中，你談到了綜合電力業務——這些只是我的筆記，所以如果我有一點偏差，我深表歉意。但是你可以在這裡建立一個以客戶為中心的綜合業務，而不是商品業務。我想知道你是否可以更詳細地說明這可能是什麼以及我們應該如何考慮它。它是否意味著更高的回報，因為它有點輕資產？或者它在集成電源解決方案之上以傳統方式進行交易。我只是很好奇你到底想在那里傳達什麼信息。

Yes. Great. Thanks very much for your questions, Roger, and very important questions to talk to.

是的。偉大的。非常感謝您提出問題，羅傑，以及非常重要的問題。

First of all, indeed, an important clarification. The 9 core areas, so the 9 core positions that we talk about, are in Upstream. So on top of that, of course, we have other positions also in Integrated Gas. And Australia for us is an Integrated Gas company -- Integrated Gas country, sorry. Of course, there are other places that are indeed in Integrated Gas that are not counted. Think of Trinidad and Tobago, for instance. So that's an important clarification to make.

首先，確實，一個重要的澄清。 9 個核心領域，也就是我們所說的 9 個核心職位，都在上游。因此，除此之外，當然，我們在 Integrated Gas 中還有其他職位。澳大利亞對我們來說是一家綜合天然氣公司——綜合天然氣國家，抱歉。當然，還有其他確實在綜合氣中的地方沒有算在內。例如，想想特立尼達和多巴哥。所以這是一個重要的澄清。

In terms of Power, indeed, it is important to think of our integrated power strategy as one that is as much as our Marketing business, if you like, working from the customer back. So what does that mean? It doesn't mean that we just want to build wind farms and solar farms and then see whether we can add some value to it with some trading or whatever else. It is actually working back from customer value propositions that may well be a cross-selling proposition or that will maybe a global proposition that we will take, for instance, with a global player who needs more than just power, maybe some other things as well in multiple places around the world. And then indeed, providing the electrons that are going to be needed to satisfy that particular customer.

事實上，就權力而言，重要的是將我們的綜合權力戰略視為與我們的營銷業務一樣多的戰略，如果你願意的話，從客戶的角度出發。那是什麼意思呢？這並不意味著我們只想建造風力發電場和太陽能發電場，然後看看我們是否可以通過一些交易或其他方式為其增加一些價值。它實際上是從客戶價值主張開始工作，這很可能是交叉銷售主張，或者可能是我們將採取的全球主張，例如，與一個不僅需要權力，還可能需要其他一些東西的全球參與者在世界各地的多個地方。然後確實提供滿足該特定客戶所需的電子。

Now that may mean and will mean, by the way, that we will indeed also be involved in the generating business. And -- but it doesn't mean necessarily that we will build -- generating assets, we're looking for customers. It's rather the other way around.

順便說一句，現在這可能意味著並且將意味著我們確實也將參與發電業務。並且 - 但這並不意味著我們一定會建立 - 生成資產，我們正在尋找客戶。恰恰相反。

So that also means then, of course, Roger, that from time to time, we will find that once we have a generating asset build, take, for instance, the wind farm that we are currently building in the North Sea, we're perfectly okay to sell that down, to a large extent, provided we keep control over the electrons that come from it. And in that way, we can actually have a generating asset on our books with a 12%-plus return on it, partly because of the successful sell-down and financial transaction around it.

所以這也意味著，當然，羅傑，我們會不時發現，一旦我們建立了發電資產，例如，我們目前正在北海建設的風電場，我們就會在很大程度上，只要我們能控制來自它的電子，就可以把它賣掉。通過這種方式，我們實際上可以在賬面上擁有一項回報率超過 12% 的發電資產，部分原因是成功的拋售和圍繞它進行的金融交易。

So think of it in that way. But indeed, you're also right, we will be able to go into a lot more detail in our February update. Thanks, Roger.

所以這樣想。但事實上，你也是對的，我們將能夠在 2 月的更新中介紹更多細節。謝謝，羅傑。

The next question comes from Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, just coming back to project reshape. I like -- I certainly don't want to say a lot of people are leaving and some vacancies will be leaving at that period. But if I think about it, at $2 billion to $2.5 billion of your current cost base, it doesn't seem like very much in the context of how much you're seeming to want to simplify Shell and also the digital work that's going on in that whole idea if I think about the deal with Microsoft. So can you just talk through as to how that -- whether you think that number is something that, over time, you'll get more benefit from simplifying Shell and that's just an early phase part it.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一個，剛剛回到項目重塑。我喜歡——我當然不想說很多人正在離開，一些職位空缺會在那個時期離開。但如果我考慮一下，在你目前的成本基礎中有 20 億到 25 億美元，在你似乎想要簡化 Shell 的程度以及正在進行的數字工作的背景下，這似乎並不是很多如果我考慮與微軟的交易，那整個想法。那麼，您能否談談它是如何實現的——您是否認為隨著時間的推移，您會從簡化 Shell 中獲得更多收益，而這只是早期階段的一部分。

And then the second part is, if I go back to the prepared presentation earlier, and thank you again for that. You do mention in the low carbon part and Silicon Ranch generating 8% to 12% returns in terms of all the projects that's done. Can you just remind us how big Silicon Ranch is? And over time, is that your preferred solar investment as well?

然後第二部分是，如果我回到之前準備好的演示文稿，再次感謝你。你確實在低碳部分提到了 Silicon Ranch 在所有已完成的項目中產生了 8% 到 12% 的回報。你能提醒我們 Silicon Ranch 有多大嗎？隨著時間的推移，這也是您首選的太陽能投資嗎？

Okay. Thanks very much, Lydia. Let me start with the second question. Jessica will take the first one. But as we also say, unless Jessica knows the answer by heart, it's probably one that you also have to get back to our IR team for.

好的。非常感謝，莉迪亞。讓我從第二個問題開始。傑西卡會拿第一個。但正如我們所說，除非 Jessica 牢記答案，否則您可能還必須返回我們的 IR 團隊才能獲得答案。

So Silicon Ranch was an investment that we made into an established developer of solar projects in Tennessee Valley that has been very successful, and that we took a minority share bit of view to understand how we could participate in the build-out of solar electricity in the United States and to see whether that could indeed turn into a platform business for us. It has been very, very successful, and we now considering the next steps, what to do with that business, and indeed, with our general capability when it comes to solar build-out. We have an equivalent of this, by the way, Lydia in the -- in Southeast Asia. How large it exactly is in terms of its pipeline, everything else, the IR team will get back to you.

因此，Silicon Ranch 是我們對田納西河谷一家成熟的太陽能項目開發商進行的投資，該項目非常成功，我們採取了少數股份的觀點來了解我們如何參與太陽能發電的建設美國，看看這是否真的可以變成我們的平台業務。它非常非常成功，我們現在正在考慮下一步，如何處理該業務，以及我們在太陽能擴建方面的一般能力。順便說一句，在東南亞，我們有類似的 Lydia。就其管道而言，它到底有多大，其他一切，IR 團隊都會回复你。

Jessica, would you mind taking the first one on Reshape and the $2 billion to $2.5 billion?

傑西卡，你介意接受第一個 Reshape 和 20 億到 25 億美元的投資嗎？

Good. A couple of things to say on the OpEx piece. So the $2 billion, $2.5 billion is solely the human cost piece. Of course, there are a number of other initiatives that are happening across the company to reduce our cost base and simplify the company that aren't part of that $2 billion, $2.5 billion number. This is where we're looking to reduce the total cost by some $3 billion to $4 billion on a sustainable basis. So indeed, there are a number of other initiatives that add on to that $2 billion to $2.5 billion number.

好的。關於 OpEx 的文章有幾點要說。所以這 20 億美元、25 億美元完全是人力成本。當然，整個公司正在採取許多其他舉措來降低我們的成本基礎並簡化公司，這些舉措不屬於這 20 億美元、25 億美元的數字。這就是我們希望在可持續的基礎上將總成本降低約 30 億至 40 億美元的地方。因此，事實上，還有許多其他舉措增加了 20 億至 25 億美元的數字。

It is important to note though that our growth businesses tend to be OpEx-heavy. So particularly our Marketing business, they're relatively CapEx-light and more OpEx-heavy. So we will see our OpEx grow in the future in associate with the -- with our growth assets. So that's important to keep in mind.

值得注意的是，我們的成長型業務往往需要大量運營支出。因此，尤其是我們的營銷業務，它們的資本支出相對較輕，而運營支出較重。因此，我們將看到我們的運營支出在未來與我們的增長資產相關聯地增長。所以記住這一點很重要。

And Lydia, just to add a few numbers, which I just got sight of. So we have, at this point in time, 43.11% in Silicon Ranch. Silicon Ranch has 930 megawatts of capacity operational and a pipeline of 1.2 gigawatts.

還有莉迪亞，我只是想補充一些數字，這是我剛剛看到的。因此，此時我們在 Silicon Ranch 擁有 43.11% 的股份。 Silicon Ranch 擁有 930 兆瓦的運營容量和 1.2 吉瓦的管道。

Ben, there's also -- I'm sorry, one other point, Lydia, on -- you'd mentioned digital. And indeed, digital is an important part of our overall story as a company in terms of how we're trying to improve and be not only more cost effective, but more value creative because of the work in digital. And a number of partnerships have been announced in recent months around that.

本，還有——對不起，還有一點，莉迪亞——你提到了數字。事實上，數字化是我們作為一家公司整體故事的重要組成部分，因為我們正在努力改進，不僅提高成本效益，而且由於數字化工作而更具價值創造性。近幾個月來，圍繞這一點宣布了一些合作夥伴關係。

We take a relatively conservative approach on how we embed those numbers into our plans. So it's in there, but we really look to have very clear line of sight to delivery and execution before we put those numbers out into the market.

對於如何將這些數字嵌入到我們的計劃中，我們採取了相對保守的方法。所以它就在那裡，但在我們將這些數字投放市場之前，我們真的希望對交付和執行有非常清晰的視線。

So I think there is continued upside on the digital front, and that is not fully baked in into $3 billion to $4 billion, and I would see that as being incremental.

所以我認為數字方面還有持續的上升空間，而且還沒有完全融入 30 億到 40 億美元，我認為這是漸進的。

The next question comes from Alastair Syme of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alastair Syme。

Today, you are giving us a new branding. So a compelling investment thesis. And we've got a new financial framework for how we should think about capital allocation. But I don't feel like we're really getting anything new or incremental on how you're going to get to higher returns. Does this all really just come in February? Look, I hope I'm not asking a rhetorical question, but I'm just trying to reflect here that your shares are at 24-year lows.

今天，你給了我們一個新的品牌。這是一個引人注目的投資論點。我們已經有了一個新的財務框架來說明我們應該如何考慮資本配置。但我不覺得我們真的在如何獲得更高回報方面獲得任何新的或增量的東西。這一切真的只在二月到來嗎？聽著，我希望我不是在問反問，但我只是想在這裡反映一下，您的股票處於 24 年低點。

Yes. Thank you very much, Alastair. Indeed, we have noted that as well. And we believe that for our shares are a fantastic buying opportunity because, of course, the net asset value of the company is a whole lot higher than what we currently see represented in the market cap.

是的。非常感謝，阿拉斯泰爾。事實上，我們也注意到了這一點。我們相信，對於我們的股票來說，這是一個絕佳的買入機會，因為當然，公司的資產淨值比我們目前在市值中看到的要高得多。

Of course, in February, indeed, there will be more detail on what the plans are. We're not going to be able to tell you that today. And we will have to lay out a pathway of how indeed the different parts of the business will develop. A little bit more on capital, a little bit more on our capital allocation framework and what that means in the path for the future.

當然，在 2 月份，確實會有更多關於計劃的細節。我們今天不能告訴你。我們將不得不為業務的不同部分如何發展制定一條路徑。更多關於資本，更多關於我們的資本分配框架以及這對未來道路的意義。

But I hope you will also understand, Alastair, that a lot of the performance of the company today, but also in the future, will depend on the macro environment that we will be enjoying or suffering as the case may be. What we intend to do though is to make sure that despite the tough macro that we are experiencing and may continue to experience going forward, we have a strong performance. That means that the company can do what it intends to do and promises -- and what it promises, but also, that it's clearly ahead of our competition.

但我希望你也明白，阿拉斯泰爾，公司今天以及未來的很多業績，都將取決於我們將享受或遭受苦難的宏觀環境，視情況而定。我們打算做的是確保儘管我們正在經歷並且可能會繼續經歷艱難的宏觀經濟，但我們有強勁的表現。這意味著公司可以做到它打算做的和承諾的——以及它承諾的，而且，它明顯領先於我們的競爭對手。

I cannot outrun the macro. The macro is what it is. But we can make the most of it. And what we also can do is to make sure that we gradually position the company much more for the future of energy rather than the current state of the energy markets. But I'm sure we'll talk again in February. Thanks, Alastair.

我跑不過宏。宏就是這樣。但我們可以充分利用它。我們還可以做的是確保我們逐漸將公司定位為能源的未來，而不是能源市場的現狀。但我相信我們會在二月份再次討論。謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。

Next question comes from Lucas Herrmann of Exane.

下一個問題來自 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann。

And also thanks for the welcome addition of a cleaner framework. Two or 3, if I might. Two are relatively simple. Ben, I just wondered if somebody could comment on Chemicals in Pennsylvania and progress and when you think that will actually start producing.

還要感謝歡迎添加更清潔的框架。兩三個，如果可以的話。兩個比較簡單。本，我只是想知道是否有人可以評論賓夕法尼亞州的化學品和進展，以及你認為什麼時候真正開始生產。

Secondly, I wondered whether you could care to make any comments on exploration in Mexico, given the leases that you acquired, where your thoughts are there?

其次，我想知道你是否願意對墨西哥的勘探發表任何評論，鑑於你獲得的租約，你的想法在哪裡？

And third and probably more challenging, I'm trying to understand how you think the earnings power of your business has changed since your Management Day 2019? If I go back to that time, clearly, you had an assumption on debt. But I think the indication was that you felt that the business was capable in a 60-ish environment of $55 billion to $60 billion or so of operating cash flow as we move through the period.

第三，可能更具挑戰性，我想了解您認為自 2019 年管理日以來您企業的盈利能力發生了怎樣的變化？如果我回到那個時候，很明顯，你有一個債務假設。但我認為，有跡象表明，隨著我們度過這段時期，您認為該企業有能力在 60 歲左右的環境中實現 550 億至 600 億美元左右的運營現金流。

If you were to run your eye across the business today, Ben, where do you think the earnings power resides? Where does it -- where have you seeded? And I guess to some good degree, that ties back to the framework you're establishing today, where you're CapEx, at this time anyway, is lower. You're talking of a range of returns to shareholders, well it depends on the operating cash flow, but my sense would be where you've been indicating $20 billion to $25 billion of return to shareholders historically, that number at the moment looks as though it's probably nearing the order of 10 to 15. So how much is it -- how much of that is other priorities, balance sheet, et cetera, how much of it, to a degree, is the earnings power of Shell is not what you thought it was or what it was going to be a year ago, perhaps just because the world is different? Sorry, it's so convoluted.

Ben，如果您今天審視整個業務，您認為盈利能力在哪裡？它在哪裡 - 你在哪裡播種？我想在某種程度上，這與您今天正在建立的框架有關，無論如何，此時您的資本支出較低。你說的是一系列股東回報，這取決於經營現金流，但我的感覺是你一直在指出歷史上 200 億至 250 億美元的股東回報，目前這個數字看起來像雖然它可能接近 10 到 15 的數量級。那麼它有多少 - 其中有多少是其他優先事項，資產負債表等等，其中有多少在某種程度上是殼牌的盈利能力而不是什麼一年前你認為它是或將會是什麼，也許只是因為世界不同了？抱歉，太繞了。

No, no. I think it's perfectly clear, Lucas. And maybe, Jessica can deal with the question first on what has changed. If the macro would spring back, what would happen to our cash flows, but also what wouldn't happen. And then I will take after that, the other 2 questions on Mexico and Pennsylvania.

不，不。我認為這很清楚，盧卡斯。或許，Jessica 可以先回答發生了什麼變化的問題。如果宏觀經濟反彈，我們的現金流會發生什麼，但也不會發生什麼。然後我將回答關於墨西哥和賓夕法尼亞的其他 2 個問題。

Really good question, Lucas. So thank you for that. The fundamentals of the company remains strong, and that is a message we've been trying to get across over the last year, 1.5 years since MD '19 and particularly during the last few quarters with the pandemic.

真是個好問題，盧卡斯。非常感謝你的幫忙。公司的基本面依然強勁，這是我們在過去一年中一直試圖傳達的信息，自 MD '19 以來已有 1.5 年，尤其是在過去幾個季度的大流行期間。

So in terms of the fundamentals of the company and the earnings capability in terms of the operational capability, the quality of our assets, I would hope that Q3 would be a way of demonstrating that there continues to be considerable strength in our earnings and cash flow potential of the company. What's changed, obviously, the macro is fundamentally different. Both in the near term, and I'd say, to some extent, to the medium term. It's going to take a few years for things to normalize. That does put more time on the clock in terms of getting our balance sheet back to where we wanted it to be. So it's going to take us a little bit more time in terms of allocating capital to the balance sheet than certainly we anticipated a couple of years ago, which is, I think, one of the points that you raised.

因此，就公司的基本面和運營能力方面的盈利能力、我們的資產質量而言，我希望第三季度能夠證明我們的盈利和現金流繼續保持可觀的實力公司的潛力。顯然，發生了什麼變化，宏觀是根本不同的。無論是在短期內，還是在某種程度上，在中期。事情要恢復正常需要幾年時間。就讓我們的資產負債表恢復到我們想要的水平而言，這確實讓我們有更多的時間。因此，在將資本分配到資產負債表方面，我們將花費比幾年前預期更多的時間，我認為這是你提出的觀點之一。

So fundamentals are strong. Pandemic's had a pretty profound effect. And there's also a piece around our strategy in terms of accelerating our strategy a bit. But I think it's more a story about the macro and the impact on the balance sheet and making sure we're getting the balance right.

所以基本面很強。大流行病產生了相當深遠的影響。在加快我們的戰略方面，我們的戰略也有一部分。但我認為這更多是關於宏觀和對資產負債表的影響以及確保我們取得正確平衡的故事。

On the 2 sites that you mentioned. So Pennsylvania Chemicals has, as you can imagine, been impacted by the pandemic. I can't quite remember the statistics, but I think at some point in time, just before the pandemic, we had over 6,000 people on site and then -- and rapid succession that actually came back to dozens, simply because we needed to preserve the safety, health and well-being of our employees. And bear in mind, of course, we are building this cracker in a relatively small community. Also in terms of medical facilities, something you have to take into account as well.

在您提到的 2 個站點上。因此，正如您想像的那樣，賓夕法尼亞化學公司受到了大流行病的影響。我不太記得統計數據，但我認為在某個時間點，就在大流行之前，我們現場有超過 6,000 人，然後——實際上又迅速增加到幾十人，僅僅是因為我們需要保護我們員工的安全、健康和福祉。請記住，當然，我們是在一個相對較小的社區中構建此破解程序的。同樣在醫療設施方面，你也必須考慮到一些事情。

So it's back up again. We have a very strict and stringent testing protocol for people coming back to site. We're taking it in a very measured way. And indeed, we are, again, in the thousands of employees working on the site. And I believe, soon enough, we will be back on sort of maximum capacity that you can imagine for a construction site like this.

所以它又回來了。對於返回現場的人們，我們有非常嚴格的測試協議。我們正在以非常慎重的方式對待它。事實上，我們再次成為在該網站上工作的數千名員工中的一員。而且我相信，很快，我們將恢復到您可以想像的這樣一個建築工地的最大容量。

It will mean that the project is delayed. There is no doubt about it, but not massively so. So we are still talking about starting it up in the next few years. We said at the beginning of the decade, we probably have to think about this 2022, I would say, Lucas.

這將意味著該項目被延遲。毫無疑問，但不是很大。所以我們還在談論在未來幾年內啟動它。我們在本世紀初說過，我們可能不得不考慮這個 2022 年，我想說，盧卡斯。

The Mexico is very much in the -- of course, in the Upstream sort of promising areas. We have, in deepwater, still very much a focus on delivering growth that will offset some of the decline that we will have in other areas. Mexico is, of course, one of these areas that have to prove itself. But if it does, then the Mexican part of the Gulf of Mexico, we hope, we can count as one of the core areas going forward as well.

墨西哥非常 - 當然，在上游那種有前途的地區。在深海，我們仍然非常關注實現增長，這將抵消我們在其他領域的一些下滑。當然，墨西哥是這些必須證明自己的地區之一。但如果確實如此，那麼墨西哥灣的墨西哥部分，我們希望，我們也可以算作未來的核心區域之一。

The program there is on track. So we are in the process of drilling our first wells. When exactly we have results, you will have to be a little bit more patient on that, I'm afraid, Lucas.

該計劃已步入正軌。所以我們正在鑽第一口井。盧卡斯，當我們確切地得出結果時，恐怕你必須對此多一點耐心。

The next question comes from Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Thanks, Ben and Jessica for this format. Just 2 follow-ups, I think. Both on CapEx. Similar to what Lucas just mentioned, that $30 billion figure still looms large. How much do you regret not being able to spend that much in the next few years? Or in other words, what are you willing to sacrifice? What is going slower, and hopefully not just because of COVID restrictions and slowdowns. So just want a feel, without asking for a new number or an updated guidance that you might give us in February, what you've decided to sacrifice for the coming years compared to the plan you presented last year?

謝謝 Ben 和 Jessica 提供的這種格式。我認為只有 2 個跟進。兩者都在資本支出上。與盧卡斯剛才提到的類似，300 億美元的數字仍然很大。未來幾年沒能花那麼多錢，你後悔多少？或者換句話說，你願意犧牲什麼？進展緩慢的事情，希望不僅僅是因為 COVID 的限制和放緩。所以只是想感受一下，在不要求您可能在 2 月份給我們的新數字或更新指導的情況下，與去年提出的計劃相比，您決定為未來幾年做出的犧牲是什麼？

And second comment quickly, if I may, on CapEx for 2020. The run rate suggests you are going to do an awful lot in Q4 with lockdowns more or less still being with us around the world. So is there a chance that, on the one hand, 2020 CapEx might well be pretty much below $20 billion. But at the other end, that you need to catch up in 2021 if conditions allow. Just again, some sort of qualitative commentary as well would be great.

如果可以的話，請快速就 2020 年的資本支出發表第二條評論。運行率表明您將在第四季度做很多事情，而全球範圍內或多或少仍將實施封鎖。那麼，一方面，2020 年的資本支出是否有可能遠低於 200 億美元。但另一方面，如果條件允許，你需要在 2021 年趕上。再一次，某種定性評論也很棒。

Fully understood, Chris, and let me just be brief on both of them, but hopefully clear. You're absolutely right. So we are, at the moment, running at a run rate that is not just at the bottom end of the $19 billion to $22 billion range that we mentioned, but it may well be that we even get below $19 billion. That is not because we have been ultra disciplined. We have been doing that as well. But it's also because, in some cases, we simply have not been able to continue with our projects. We just mentioned Pennsylvania. There's others where we had to stop work. That, of course, is not a disciplined way of bringing your CapEx down. So indeed, some of it will indeed come back as part of a mini bow wave. But we're very clear, we stay within the $19 billion to $22 billion spend.

完全理解，克里斯，讓我簡要介紹一下他們兩個，但希望清楚。你是絕對正確的。因此，目前我們的運行率不僅處於我們提到的 190 億美元至 220 億美元範圍的底部，而且很可能甚至低於 190 億美元。那不是因為我們一直紀律嚴明。我們也一直在這樣做。但這也是因為在某些情況下，我們根本無法繼續我們的項目。我們剛剛提到了賓夕法尼亞州。還有其他地方我們不得不停止工作。當然，這並不是降低資本支出的一種有紀律的方式。所以確實，其中一些確實會作為迷你弓形波的一部分返回。但我們非常清楚，我們保持在 190 億至 220 億美元的支出範圍內。

Of course, there are regrets, you talk about the $30 billion. But listen, we were not going to spend $30 billion this year, not even next year in the original idea. The original idea was that if we were going to spend $25 billion this year, and we were going to ramp that up to be in the range of 27% to 32%.

當然有遺憾，你說300億。但是聽著，我們今年不會花費 300 億美元，甚至明年也不會按照最初的想法。最初的想法是，如果我們今年要花費 250 億美元，我們將把它提高到 27% 到 32% 的範圍內。

Now that's out of the window. It doesn't happen anymore. At this point in time. Indeed, we have to be much more parsimonious with our capital. And indeed, that means that we have to make regrets.

現在那已經不在了。它不再發生了。此時此刻。事實上，我們必須更加節儉地使用我們的資本。事實上，這意味著我們必須後悔。

To give you an idea, where the regrets are, they're not in our growth category. So where we now spend about 25% of our CapEx in what we call growth that used to be 11. But it does mean that in areas like, for instance, Upstream, where we used to spend close to 50% of our CapEx, it's now more going to be 35% to 40%. So indeed, regrets have been made, but choices had to be made simply because of affordability.

給你一個想法，遺憾在哪裡，它們不在我們的增長類別中。因此，我們現在將大約 25% 的資本支出用於我們所謂的增長，而過去是 11。但這確實意味著在上游等領域，我們過去曾花費近 50% 的資本支出，現在現在更多的是 35% 到 40%。因此，的確，已經做出了遺憾，但僅僅因為負擔能力就必須做出選擇。

Next question comes from Henry Tarr from Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Henry Tarr。

Two really. One was, when do you expect to hit the $65 billion net debt threshold, given your current environment outlook? And then the second, just on the customer focus that you're talking about. So how are you aiming to build up customers? And what type of customers are you pursuing?

兩個真的。一是，鑑於您目前的環境前景，您預計什麼時候會達到 650 億美元的淨債務門檻？然後是第二個，就是你所說的以客戶為中心。那麼你打算如何建立客戶呢？您追求什麼類型的客戶？

I saw sort of Shell was bidding on a broadband business in the U.K. recently. I guess that it might be a very small part of the strategy, but are we likely to see more of this type of activity?

我最近看到殼牌公司正在競標英國的一項寬帶業務。我想這可能只是戰略的一小部分，但我們是否有可能看到更多此類活動？

Thanks very much, Henry. And why don't you take the first one, Jessica? I'll talk to customers. And that will, by the way, be our last question as well.

非常感謝，亨利。你為什麼不選第一個，傑西卡？我會和客戶談談。順便說一下，這也是我們的最後一個問題。

In terms of the $65 billion net debt and when -- our expectation around it, I think the best way to consider that question is in the context of how we're currently performing and the actual performance of the company and what we believe is a low moment in the cycle.

就 650 億美元的淨債務以及我們對此的預期而言，我認為考慮這個問題的最佳方式是結合我們目前的表現和公司的實際表現以及我們認為循環中的低時刻。

If I were to try and give you a number or a date 1 or 2 years down the road, I'd have to give you a whole suite of assumptions on the macro, on the performance of the company. All of that, of course, is relevant for a company such as ourselves. But what you see in the third quarter is some $9 billion of cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, when oil prices are low, LNG prices are low, where there's very little volatility in trading. There is a strong Marketing business, but a number of our businesses being impacted by the macro environment.

如果我試圖給你一個數字或未來 1 年或 2 年的日期，我必須給你一整套關於宏觀和公司業績的假設。當然，所有這些都與我們這樣的公司相關。但你在第三季度看到的是約 90 億美元的運營現金流，不包括營運資金，當時油價低，液化天然氣價格低，交易波動很小。有強大的營銷業務，但我們的許多業務受到宏觀環境的影響。

So I think that's a good indication of -- going back to an earlier question, the fundamental earnings and cash flow capability of the company at a low point in the cycle. And so that, I think, is a good indication.

所以我認為這是一個很好的跡象——回到之前的問題，即公司在周期低點的基本收益和現金流能力。因此，我認為這是一個很好的跡象。

That being said, working capital matters, margining matters. So we should expect some fluctuation quarter-on-quarter. But kind of steady state in terms of the capability of the company. I think Q3 is a good indication.

話雖這麼說，營運資金很重要，保證金很重要。因此，我們應該預計季度環比會有一些波動。但就公司的能力而言，這是一種穩定的狀態。我認為 Q3 是一個很好的跡象。

Okay. Thanks, Jessica. And yes, on customers, let me say the broadband news that I saw as well. Don't consider that to be sort of the mainstay of our growth plans going forward. But indeed, working from the customer bank is a very important aspect of our growth strategy, and I think a very important aspect to really increasingly clearly get across as a differentiator for our company.

好的。謝謝，傑西卡。是的，關於客戶，讓我說一下我也看到的寬帶新聞。不要認為這是我們未來增長計劃的支柱。但事實上，從客戶銀行工作是我們增長戰略的一個非常重要的方面，我認為這是一個非常重要的方面，可以真正越來越清楚地成為我們公司的差異化因素。

We have been a customer-focused company for many, many years, decades. But at some point in time, I think we all know that the appeal of the Upstream very much overtook the appeal of serving customers. But in the end, you have to bear in mind, the energy transition is going to be a trend where the power of the customers, the choices that customers make, the demands that society will have also on our customers will determine how the future of energy will look like.

多年來，幾十年來，我們一直是一家以客戶為中心的公司。但在某個時間點，我想我們都知道上游的吸引力大大超過了為客戶提供服務的吸引力。但最後，你必須記住，能源轉型將成為一種趨勢，客戶的力量、客戶做出的選擇、社會對我們客戶的需求將決定未來能量會是什麼樣子。

So we have reorientated ourselves a little bit back again to being a clearly, customer-orientated company. In a way, you could argue, we never lost it because we have a very strong marketing platform that you will have seen performing very well over the last years, if not decades. But we are going to turn that very much into a platform on which we are going to build that future of energy.

因此，我們再次將自己重新定位為一個明確的、以客戶為導向的公司。在某種程度上，你可能會爭辯說，我們從未失去它，因為我們擁有一個非常強大的營銷平台，你會看到它在過去幾年（如果不是幾十年）中表現非常出色。但我們將把它變成一個平台，我們將在這個平台上建立能源的未來。

And that is indeed our 30 million consumers that come to our retail forecourts, for which we will have other value propositions, increasingly also that we serve and that we serve at global companies. Think of the likes of Microsoft, Google, other companies with which we can have global partnerships to work together on that decarbonization challenge. We believe decarbonization, meeting the Paris agreement is going to be a key driver in how the energy system is shaped. And the energy system will be shaped by our customers, and therefore, we will be part of that journey as well.

這確實是我們的 3000 萬消費者來到我們的零售前院，為此我們將有其他價值主張，我們也越來越多地為他們服務，並為全球公司服務。想想微軟、谷歌等其他公司，我們可以與它們建立全球合作夥伴關係，共同應對脫碳挑戰。我們相信脫碳，滿足巴黎協議將成為能源系統塑造的關鍵驅動力。能源系統將由我們的客戶塑造，因此，我們也將成為這一旅程的一部分。

And that brings me to the end of this session. So again, thank you very much for all the questions that you asked. I know there's a few more outstanding, but our IR team will get to you.

這讓我結束了本次會議。再次感謝您提出的所有問題。我知道還有一些更出色的，但我們的 IR 團隊會找到你。

Thank you very much for joining the call today. And I do hope that we have given you a little bit more clarity on our strategic direction and our financial framework. But I also hope that we have given you today a real taste of how well positioned we are because we are ready to capture the opportunities and the value that is there in the energy transition. And I also hope it has given you a little bit of hunger to know more about our strategy because it will be a strategy that will deliver.

非常感謝您今天加入電話會議。我確實希望我們已經讓您更清楚地了解我們的戰略方向和財務框架。但我也希望，我們今天讓您真正體驗了我們的優勢，因為我們已準備好抓住能源轉型中的機遇和價值。我也希望它讓您有點渴望了解我們的戰略，因為這將是一個能夠實現的戰略。

So there's more to come on this in our strategy day on the 11th of February next year. And in the meantime, have a great rest of the week, and please stay safe, everyone.

因此，在明年 2 月 11 日的戰略日上，我們還有更多的事情要做。與此同時，祝大家度過愉快的一周，並請大家注意安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。