殼牌 (SHEL) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Royal Dutch Shell 2020 Q2 Results Announcement.

歡迎閱讀荷蘭皇家殼牌 2020 年第二季度業績公告。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce the first speaker, Ben Van Beurden.

我現在想介紹第一位演講者，Ben Van Beurden。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you very much, Rachel.

非常感謝你，雷切爾。

And ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our second quarter 2020 results call.

女士們，先生們，歡迎來到我們的 2020 年第二季度業績電話會議。

Thank you very much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。

We realize it's a very busy day today.

我們意識到今天是非常忙碌的一天。

I hope that you and your families and friends and colleagues are safe and well and that you are taking good care through these very extraordinary times that we are facing at the moment.

我希望您和您的家人、朋友和同事平安無事，並希望您在我們目前面臨的這些非常特殊的時期好好照顧自己。

Before I get going, let me point out to you again the disclaimer statement.

在開始之前，讓我再次向您指出免責聲明。

But as I said, these are extraordinary times.

但正如我所說，現在是非常時期。

They are challenging times for our business, many others, of course, as well.

這對我們的業務來說是充滿挑戰的時期，當然，對許多其他業務來說也是如此。

You will see the effect of COVID-19 and the overall global economic weakness and what they have meant for Shell in the second quarter when Jessica speaks shortly about the results.

當傑西卡簡短地談到結果時，您將看到 COVID-19 的影響和全球經濟整體疲軟以及它們對殼牌在第二季度的意義。

And while there's, of course, nothing that Shell can do about the times we find ourselves in, we can always run our business well.

當然，對於我們所處的時代，殼牌也無能為力，但我們始終可以很好地經營我們的業務。

We can keep it resilient, and that is exactly our focus.

我們可以保持它的彈性，而這正是我們的重點。

So today, I would like to give you some insight into the actions, the big ones, the small ones, that Shell is taking.

所以今天，我想向您介紹一下殼牌正在採取的行動，包括大行動和小行動。

So yes, we are in the midst of a global crisis, but we are working to make sure we come out of it much stronger and much fitter.

所以，是的，我們正處於一場全球危機之中，但我們正在努力確保我們從危機中走出來時變得更強大、更健康。

Through the second quarter, we continued operating our assets with minimal disruption, and we saw resilient cash, and that shows both the quality of our assets and our people.

整個第二季度，我們繼續以最小的中斷運營我們的資產，我們看到了有彈性的現金，這顯示了我們的資產和人員的質量。

The near-term macro demanded quick action, and we took decisive measures to protect value, to strengthen our balance sheet and preserve cash.

近期宏觀需要迅速採取行動，我們採取了果斷措施來保護價值，加強資產負債表並保留現金。

It was included rethinking and substantially reducing our cost as well as rebasing our dividend and not continuing with the next tranche of the share buyback program.

它包括重新考慮並大幅降低我們的成本，以及重新調整我們的股息，而不是繼續進行下一批股票回購計劃。

We quickly changed our processes, our operations into the virtual world, accelerating digitalization initiatives that were already underway.

我們迅速改變了我們的流程，我們的運營進入了虛擬世界，加速了已經在進行中的數字化計劃。

And we can already see that these actions will also reap long-term benefits.

而且我們已經可以看到，這些行動也將收穫長期利益。

And while we remain focused on preserving cash, counter near-term challenges, we continue to position Shell for what comes next because the foundations of our investment proposition go deeper than a resilient balance sheet.

在我們繼續專注於保留現金、應對近期挑戰的同時，我們繼續為殼牌做好準備以應對接下來的挑戰，因為我們投資主張的基礎比有彈性的資產負債表更深入。

We believe the long-term fundamentals of our business are strong.

我們相信我們業務的長期基礎是強勁的。

And that is why despite all the immediate action we have taken, we have not rushed to change our strategy and our cash allocation priorities.

這就是為什麼儘管我們立即採取了所有行動，但我們並沒有急於改變我們的戰略和現金分配優先事項。

Strategy is still very much centered around our customers, and it is centered around driving in the energy transition to a lower carbon future.

戰略仍然非常以我們的客戶為中心，並且以推動能源向低碳未來的轉型為中心。

But before I go any further, I must give you an update on something that is crucially important no matter what time frame you look at, our performance on health, safety, security and the environment.

但在我繼續之前，我必須向您介紹一些至關重要的最新情況，無論您看的是什麼時間框架，我們在健康、安全、安保和環境方面的表現。

Through these challenging times, our priority has been to ensure safe business continuity.

在這些充滿挑戰的時期，我們的首要任務是確保安全的業務連續性。

And after a difficult 2019, I'm pleased that we have not had any work-related fatalities, Shell-operated ventures in the first half of the year.

在經歷了艱難的 2019 年之後，我很高興今年上半年我們沒有發生任何與工作相關的死亡事故，殼牌運營的企業。

We've also reported about 40% fewer injuries in the first half of this year, if you compare it with the same period in 2019.

如果與 2019 年同期相比，我們還報告說今年上半年的傷害減少了約 40%。

And we improved our performance in process safety, but also the volume of spills.

我們提高了過程安全方面的表現，同時也減少了洩漏量。

And we remain below our target on greenhouse gas intensity emissions, both Upstream and Integrated Gas.

我們仍然低於我們的溫室氣體強度排放目標，包括上游和綜合天然氣。

Now our refineries and our petrochemical plants, however, have been unable to match this performance on greenhouse gas intensity as we saw lower utilization across many sites due to the economic environment.

然而，現在我們的煉油廠和石化廠在溫室氣體排放強度方面無法達到這種表現，因為我們看到許多地點的利用率因經濟環境而降低。

And at lower utilizations, these assets simply run at higher intensity.

在較低的利用率下，這些資產只是以更高的強度運行。

But with a good progress on our health and safety performance, pleasing as it is, I'm also very sad to say that COVID-19 has left its mark on Shell.

但是，隨著我們在健康和安全績效方面取得的良好進展，儘管令人高興，但我也很難過地說，COVID-19 已經在殼牌身上留下了印記。

Seven of our colleagues are among the hundreds of thousands worldwide who have regretfully fallen to this virus.

我們的七位同事是全球數十萬不幸感染該病毒的人中的一員。

We are doing all we can to support their families, their communities.

我們正在竭盡全力支持他們的家庭和社區。

Safety is always a top priority, and current environment calls for even more vigilant care for each other.

安全永遠是重中之重，當前的環境更需要彼此關愛。

This quarter, we have continued to work with partners and governments around the world to help local communities to respond to the global pandemic.

本季度，我們繼續與世界各地的合作夥伴和政府合作，幫助當地社區應對全球大流行病。

So in Brazil, for example, we supported the construction of a field hospital in Rio de Janeiro through the Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute, the trade association.

例如，在巴西，我們通過貿易協會巴西石油、天然氣和生物燃料研究所支持在里約熱內盧建設一家戰地醫院。

And in Nigeria, we work with renewable energy companies to provide solar power to emergency health centers that are being set up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic there.

在尼日利亞，我們與可再生能源公司合作，為正在建立的緊急醫療中心提供太陽能，以抗擊那裡的 COVID-19 大流行病。

Across all our assets, our contingency plans have worked well in the quarter.

在我們所有的資產中，我們的應急計劃在本季度運作良好。

So as an example, 99% of our retail sites have remained open.

例如，我們 99% 的零售站點都保持開放。

And besides the usual safety measures, we are taking extra precautions with our front-line people.

除了通常的安全措施外，我們還對一線人員採取了額外的預防措施。

So at our Rheinland refinery in Germany, our site staff are staggered in shifts and keeping the same teams working together to minimize new contact.

因此，在我們位於德國的萊茵煉油廠，我們的現場工作人員交錯輪班，並讓相同的團隊一起工作，以盡量減少新的接觸。

Our lubricants customers in Canada and China are now offered a zero-touch oil change.

我們在加拿大和中國的潤滑油客戶現在可以享受零接觸換油服務。

And our Trading team that currently manages 1,300 sea ferries, 40 Shell-managed vessels has reduced the level of contact when our ships arrive at ports and terminals to load or discharge.

我們的貿易團隊目前管理著 1,300 艘海上渡輪和 40 艘殼牌管理的船隻，當我們的船隻抵達港口和碼頭裝卸貨時，他們減少了接觸。

Most of our people, tens of thousands, normally work on our facilities.

我們的大多數人，數以萬計，通常在我們的設施上工作。

And with the lockdown in many locations, we have virtualized processes and operations significantly.

由於許多地方都處於封鎖狀態，我們已經顯著虛擬化了流程和操作。

We have increased the number of virtual inspections, using images, project and instrumentation diagrams, robots, even augmented reality embedded in helmets that support remote technical activity.

我們增加了虛擬檢查的數量，使用圖像、項目和儀表圖、機器人，甚至是嵌入支持遠程技術活動的頭盔中的增強現實。

Amongst other initiatives, we are validating and testing the design of our projects and equipment virtually, using the expertise of our teams in different locations around the world to ensure business continuity.

在其他舉措中，我們正在虛擬驗證和測試我們的項目和設備的設計，利用我們在世界各地不同地點的團隊的專業知識來確保業務連續性。

And we are also using technology to support our customers remotely as if we were just next to them.

我們還使用技術遠程支持我們的客戶，就好像我們就在他們身邊一樣。

So for example, we recently launched a new lubricants logistics model optimizing U.S. and Canada customer deliveries by successfully handing over our logistics operations to Penske in a virtual environment.

因此，例如，我們最近推出了一種新的潤滑油物流模型，通過在虛擬環境中成功將我們的物流業務移交給 Penske 來優化美國和加拿大客戶的交付。

We've also launched an app-based virtual payment card in China and in India for our customers with fleets of cars and trucks, growing our business-to-business solutions in these 2 markets.

我們還在中國和印度為擁有汽車和卡車車隊的客戶推出了基於應用程序的虛擬支付卡，從而在這兩個市場發展我們的企業對企業解決方案。

And then in finance, in the first quarter of 2020, we closed our financial books faster than in any quarter in 2019 in a fully virtual environment.

然後在財務方面，在 2020 年第一季度，我們在完全虛擬的環境中以比 2019 年任何季度都快的速度結賬。

And this quarter, we set a new record and closed the books even faster.

本季度，我們創下了新紀錄，結賬速度更快。

We're working to make the efficiency gains structural and to free up resources across all countries and businesses in which we operate.

我們正在努力使效率收益結構化，並釋放我們運營所在的所有國家和企業的資源。

Through the current virtual working environment, we have also progressed further digitalization.

通過當前的虛擬工作環境，我們還進一步推進了數字化。

For example, we further integrated machine learning into predictive maintenance activities of our refining and our deepwater assets with the potential to now roll it out across other parts of the portfolio as well.

例如，我們將機器學習進一步整合到我們煉油和深水資產的預測性維護活動中，現在有可能將其推廣到投資組合的其他部分。

We have implemented new digital features that allow us to further optimize the inventory of materials in our refineries, and we are increasing the use of artificial intelligence to run and optimize our assets in this unprecedented environment as well as to simulate return-to-office scenarios for it.

我們已經實施了新的數字功能，使我們能夠進一步優化煉油廠的材料庫存，我們正在增加人工智能的使用，以在這種前所未有的環境中運行和優化我們的資產，並模擬返回辦公室的場景為了它。

For us, all these actions are more than initiatives to just ensure business continuity through the crisis.

對我們來說，所有這些行動不僅僅是為了確保業務在危機中的連續性。

They are actually opportunities to further build resilient operating models and optimize costs.

它們實際上是進一步建立彈性運營模式和優化成本的機會。

Now talking about cost improvement, let me give you an update on how we are progressing the countermeasures we have taken to reduce our operating expenses.

現在談論成本改善，讓我向您介紹我們如何推進我們為減少運營費用而採取的對策的最新情況。

We're on track to deliver the reduction in underlying operating expenses by $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of Q1 2020.

我們有望在 2020 年第一季度末將基礎運營費用減少 30 億至 40 億美元。

And that is compared with 2019 actuals.

這與 2019 年的實際情況進行了比較。

As you can imagine, that scale of action meant some difficult decisions had to be taken, like initiating voluntary severance programs and announcing no staff bonus this year.

可以想像，如此規模的行動意味著必須做出一些艱難的決定，例如啟動自願離職計劃和宣布今年不發放員工獎金。

But beyond measures with short-term impact, we have also challenged ourselves to find structural improvement opportunities in operating models across our businesses and functions.

但除了具有短期影響的措施外，我們還挑戰自己，在我們的業務和職能部門的運營模式中尋找結構性改進機會。

So for example, in Shales, we have implemented a new operating model through a zero-based approach, focusing on core workflow and asset centricity.

因此，例如，在 Shales 中，我們通過零基礎的方法實施了一種新的運營模式，專注於核心工作流程和以資產為中心。

And this new model, once fully implemented, is expected to reduce overhead expenses by around 40% per annum when compared to 2019 levels.

與 2019 年的水平相比，這種新模式一旦全面實施，預計每年的管理費用將減少約 40%。

And the majority of these savings will be recognized between now and 2021.

從現在到 2021 年，這些節省的大部分將得到確認。

We're also reducing feasibility study cost across our portfolio and identifying operating efficiency opportunities in IT, in asset maintenance and with suppliers.

我們還降低了整個產品組合的可行性研究成本，並確定了 IT、資產維護和供應商方面的運營效率機會。

Across all our businesses, we are further moving activities to our business operation centers, where we can optimize and standardize our process.

在我們所有的業務中，我們正在進一步將活動轉移到我們的業務運營中心，在那裡我們可以優化和標準化我們的流程。

And this is a journey that we had already embarked on quite some time ago, and we continue to see opportunities benefits in this model.

這是我們很久以前就開始的旅程，我們繼續看到這種模式帶來的機會收益。

So for example, we are further consolidating research and development into those centers, which will bring structural cost reduction.

因此，例如，我們正在進一步將研發整合到這些中心，這將帶來結構性成本降低。

And finally, as we improve our processes and operating models, we are reviewing the structures around them to maximize the efficiencies we can create.

最後，隨著我們改進流程和運營模式，我們正在審查圍繞它們的結構，以最大限度地提高我們可以創造的效率。

That is why in the second quarter, we have also started a program in Shell to redesign and restructure towards a fundamentally simpler, more effective organization that can deliver the very best from our traditional businesses, from our customer-centric businesses as well and rapidly and purposefully innovate for our future business models.

這就是為什麼在第二季度，我們還在殼牌啟動了一項計劃，旨在重新設計和重組一個從根本上更簡單、更有效的組織，該組織可以從我們的傳統業務、我們以客戶為中心的業務中提供最好的，以及快速和有目的地為我們未來的商業模式進行創新。

You will hear more about all of this in time, but I can tell you now that besides reshaping and redesigning, we will also resize as appropriate.

你會及時聽到更多關於這一切的信息，但我現在可以告訴你，除了重塑和重新設計，我們還會適當地調整大小。

We're working to reduce our contingent workforce.

我們正在努力減少臨時工。

We are rationalizing our expatriation pool and further accelerate automation and digitalization.

我們正在合理化我們的外派人才庫，並進一步加速自動化和數字化。

A simpler, leaner and a more focused organization will also cost much less.

一個更簡單、更精簡和更專注的組織也將花費更少。

We're also finding cost efficiencies when it comes to capital expenditure.

在資本支出方面，我們還發現了成本效益。

And we are doing so while spending what we need to spend to ensure asset integrity and to continue with projects that are under construction.

我們正在這樣做，同時花費我們需要花費的錢來確保資產完整性並繼續進行在建項目。

In some cases, we have decided that joining these are currently not attractive enough, and we stopped them.

在某些情況下，我們認為加入這些目前還不夠吸引人，因此我們阻止了他們。

We're also deferring many projects.

我們還推遲了許多項目。

So we can better face the capital spend while maintaining the flow of projects we need to sustain growth.

因此，我們可以更好地應對資本支出，同時保持維持增長所需的項目流量。

For example, we have reduced our exploration budget by some $600 million for 2020, which partly appears in our capital expenditure numbers, partly in operating expense.

例如，我們將 2020 年的勘探預算減少了約 6 億美元，這部分體現在我們的資本支出數字中，部分體現在運營費用中。

An agreement with partners and with governments, we plan to drill 22 exploration wells this year, and that compares with 77 originally planned.

根據與合作夥伴和政府的協議，我們計劃今年鑽探 22 口探井，而原計劃為 77 口。

By reducing the spend, we have continued adding resources to our growth fund.

通過減少支出，我們繼續為我們的增長基金增加資源。

In addition to stopping and deferring projects, we have rethought how we can become more efficient in deploying capital.

除了停止和推遲項目外，我們還重新考慮瞭如何才能更有效地部署資本。

So in Shales, for example, we have reduced activity in various basins, taking advantage of the thought cycles and the flexibility that they allow.

因此，例如，在頁岩中，我們減少了各個盆地的活動，利用思維周期和它們允許的靈活性。

And with all these initiatives that I just mentioned, we are on track to achieve $5 billion reduction in cash capital expenditure from our originally planned levels for this year.

通過我剛才提到的所有這些舉措，我們有望在今年的原計划水平上減少 50 億美元的現金資本支出。

So on this slide here, you can see how that translates to each of our businesses for 2020, focusing on our ability to reduce spend and make choices, minimizing the impacts on our growth funnel and future cash flows.

因此，在此處的這張幻燈片上，您可以看到這將如何轉化為我們 2020 年的每項業務，重點關注我們減少支出和做出選擇的能力，最大限度地減少對我們的增長渠道和未來現金流的影響。

So we are keeping the growth in the leading transition themes, balancing our capital spend with Upstream and we continue to invest in power.

因此，我們保持領先轉型主題的增長，平衡我們與上游的資本支出，並繼續投資於電力。

For example, last night, the CrossWind consortium, a joint venture between Shell and Eneco was awarded a tender for a subsidy-free offshore wind farm off the coast of the Netherlands.

例如，昨晚，殼牌和 Eneco 的合資企業 CrossWind 財團中標荷蘭海岸的一個無補貼海上風電場。

Offshore wind as a source of low-carbon electricity will play a pivotal role in the energy transition.

海上風能作為低碳電力的來源將在能源轉型中發揮關鍵作用。

As we said previously, our annual ceiling for the period from '21 to '25 was around $30 billion, but this level assumes a stable macroeconomic environment.

正如我們之前所說，我們從 21 世紀到 25 年期間的年度上限約為 300 億美元，但這一水平假設宏觀經濟環境穩定。

However, in the current recessionary environment, if it warrants it, we can extend this year's cash CapEx spend of around $20 billion to next year as well.

然而，在當前的經濟衰退環境中，如果有必要，我們也可以將今年約 200 億美元的現金資本支出延長至明年。

Currently budgeting for those scenarios, designing our CapEx plan for 2021 with flexibility in mind, so we can respond to the environment accordingly.

目前正在為這些情況制定預算，在設計我們的 2021 年資本支出計劃時考慮到靈活性，因此我們可以相應地應對環境。

But then, of course, we're also reviewing our future CapEx beyond 2021 as part of our broader strategic review.

但是，當然，作為我們更廣泛的戰略審查的一部分，我們也在審查 2021 年以後的未來資本支出。

And we plan to provide revised details at our Strategy Day early next year.

我們計劃在明年初的戰略日提供修改後的細節。

Now these are, as I'm sure you will appreciate, major moves, but all this action does not change the cash priorities we have previously set out.

現在，正如我相信您會理解的那樣，這些都是重大舉措，但所有這些行動都不會改變我們之前設定的現金優先事項。

So our near-term focus remains on reducing net debt, strengthen the balance sheet and maintain AA credit metrics.

因此，我們近期的重點仍然是減少淨債務、加強資產負債表並維持 AA 信用指標。

So we are paying dividends and investing at the revised cash CapEx levels.

因此，我們正在按照修訂後的現金資本支出水平支付股息和投資。

Strong credit metrics are important due to the high volatility in price and margins, combined with high cash obligations that we need to meet.

由於價格和利潤率的高波動性以及我們需要滿足的高現金義務，強大的信用指標非常重要。

And for us, it is particularly key given our integrated business model.

對我們來說，考慮到我們的綜合業務模式，這尤為關鍵。

So for example, to support Trading contracts without the need for collateral payments and for our long-term offtake and supply agreements.

因此，例如，支持無需支付抵押品的交易合同以及我們的長期承購和供應協議。

And it is also important with self-insurance as well as for liquidity and cost of debt.

這對於自我保險以及流動性和債務成本也很重要。

And I'm sure you will agree that the last 6 months demonstrate the importance of having this strong balance sheet.

而且我相信您會同意，過去 6 個月證明了擁有強大資產負債表的重要性。

So in the current recessionary environment, we look to protect value.

因此，在當前的衰退環境中，我們希望保護價值。

And this means further deleveraging to maintain AA credit metrics, paying an annual dividend of $5 billion, spending around $20 billion in cash CapEx.

這意味著進一步去槓桿化以維持 AA 信用指標，支付 50 億美元的年度股息，支出約 200 億美元的現金資本支出。

In the current environment, we expect our gearing to remain or even be higher than the top of the end of our range of 15% to 25%.

在當前環境下，我們預計我們的負債率將保持甚至高於 15% 至 25% 區間的上限。

But then bear in mind, gearing is only a proxy for the multiple credit metrics that we consider when managing our balance sheet.

但請記住，資產負債率只是我們在管理資產負債表時考慮的多種信用指標的替代指標。

And as the macroeconomic situation recovers and there is a surplus of cash, we intend to strike a balance between additional shareholder distributions, CapEx to enable additional growth and further strengthening of the balance sheet.

隨著宏觀經濟形勢的複蘇和現金過剩，我們打算在額外的股東分配、資本支出之間取得平衡，以實現額外的增長和進一步加強資產負債表。

So in a more stable environment, we would further deleverage within our gearing range of 15% to 25% to maintain AA credit metrics through the cycle.

因此，在更穩定的環境中，我們將在 15% 至 25% 的槓桿率範圍內進一步去槓桿化，以在整個週期內維持 AA 信用指標。

We would raise CapEx for growth and increase dividends per share as well as undertake share buybacks, also what we said before.

我們將提高資本支出以實現增長，增加每股股息，並進行股票回購，這也是我們之前說過的。

In the last few years, we had enough liquidity to cover the dividends and bought back around $15 billion in shares.

在過去的幾年裡，我們有足夠的流動性來支付股息並回購了大約 150 億美元的股票。

With a rebased dividend and lower cost, we expect to ensure that our sources of cash meet our cash obligations in 2020 and beyond.

通過重新調整股息和降低成本，我們希望確保我們的現金來源能夠滿足 2020 年及以後的現金義務。

And as the world recovers, strong balance sheet will allow Shell to stride out better than ever.

隨著世界的複蘇，強大的資產負債表將使殼牌比以往任何時候都更好地走出去。

Now let me hand over to Jessica.

現在讓我交給傑西卡。

She will give you some further details on our second quarter performance.

她將為您提供有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Ben, and to everyone for joining the call today.

謝謝你，本，感謝大家今天加入電話會議。

I hope you and your families are all safe and well.

我希望你和你的家人都平安無事。

As Ben just said, Shell is becoming a simpler, leaner, more focused organization.

正如本剛才所說，殼牌正在成為一個更簡單、更精簡、更專注的組織。

We are changing the company even as our cash priorities remain the same.

即使我們的現金優先級保持不變，我們也在改變公司。

We can do this because of the strong fundamentals of our business.

我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們的業務基礎堅實。

To show you where the strength comes from, I'm going to speak to you of our resilient cash generation and sector-leading cash flow.

為了向您展示實力的來源，我將向您介紹我們富有彈性的現金流和行業領先的現金流。

So let me start by outlining Shell's financial performance in the second quarter.

因此，讓我首先概述殼牌第二季度的財務業績。

Our Q2 2020 cash flow from operations, excluding working capital movements, was $6.5 billion, and our adjusted earnings amounted to $638 million in the quarter.

我們 2020 年第二季度的運營現金流（不包括營運資金流動）為 65 億美元，本季度調整後收益為 6.38 億美元。

Return on average capital employed was 5.3%.

平均已動用資本回報率為 5.3%。

At the end of Q2 2020, our gearing increased to 32.7%.

到 2020 年第二季度末，我們的負債率增至 32.7%。

2.8% of this was driven by impairments and pension remeasurements impacting the equity side of the equation.

其中 2.8% 是由影響等式權益方面的減值和養老金重新計量所推動的。

Our cash capital expenditure in the quarter was $3.6 billion, which was kept low, mainly due to the countermeasures highlighted earlier by Ben.

我們本季度的現金資本支出為 36 億美元，保持在較低水平，這主要是由於 Ben 早些時候強調的對策。

Now let us look at our Q2 earnings in more detail.

現在讓我們更詳細地看看我們的第二季度收益。

Q2 2020 earnings were down, reflecting the impacts of COVID-19 on energy demand, prices and margins.

2020 年第二季度收益下降，反映出 COVID-19 對能源需求、價格和利潤率的影響。

Adjusted earnings this quarter were $638 million.

本季度調整後收益為 6.38 億美元。

Integrated Gas adjusted earnings were $362 million due to lower realized oil and LNG prices as well as unfavorable movements in deferred tax positions and well write-off compared with the second quarter 2019.

Integrated Gas 調整後收益為 3.62 億美元，原因是與 2019 年第二季度相比，較低的實現石油和液化天然氣價格以及遞延稅項和油井註銷的不利變動。

In Upstream, production reduced by about 7% compared with the second quarter 2019, but sales volumes were up due to the timing of liftings, mainly in Brazil.

在上游，與 2019 年第二季度相比，產量減少了約 7%，但由於提貨的時間安排，銷量有所上升，主要是在巴西。

We reported an adjusted loss of $1.5 billion, largely reflecting lower realized oil and gas prices.

我們報告了 15 億美元的調整後虧損，主要反映了較低的已實現石油和天然氣價格。

In oil products, adjusted earnings were $2.4 billion in the second quarter, very strong contributions from crude oil and product -- crude and oil products, trading and optimization as well as lower operating expenses offset lower realized refining margins and lower marketing volumes compared with the same quarter last year.

在石油產品方面，第二季度調整後的收益為 24 億美元，原油和產品的強勁貢獻——原油和石油產品、交易和優化以及較低的運營費用抵消了較低的已實現煉油利潤和較低的營銷量去年同一季度。

This strong performance from trading and optimization was underpinned by unprecedented market volatility as well as by price, demand and supply dislocations among different geographies.

前所未有的市場波動以及不同地區之間的價格、需求和供應錯位支撐了交易和優化的強勁表現。

We also saw the emergence of fixed and floating storage opportunities resulting from the contango structure during the quarter.

我們還看到本季度正價差結構導致固定和浮動存儲機會的出現。

We are already seeing a reduction in volatility we experienced in the second quarter, and I would note that the very strong trading and optimization performance in the second quarter is not necessarily an indication for the third quarter.

我們已經看到第二季度的波動性有所下降，我要指出的是，第二季度非常強勁的交易和優化表現並不一定代表第三季度。

In Chemicals, adjusted earnings were $206 million, up from the second quarter 2019, reflecting lower operating expenses compared with Q2 2019.

在化學品方面，調整後的收益為 2.06 億美元，高於 2019 年第二季度，這反映出與 2019 年第二季度相比運營費用較低。

Finally, in the Corporate segment, our adjusted earnings reflected lower net interest expense.

最後，在企業部門，我們調整後的收益反映出較低的淨利息支出。

Given the outlook of the macroeconomic and energy market impact of COVID-19 as well as expectations on long-term supply and demand fundamentals, we revised our commodity price and margin outlook.

鑑於 COVID-19 對宏觀經濟和能源市場影響的前景以及對長期供需基本面的預期，我們修改了商品價格和利潤率前景。

This resulted in lower medium- and long-term oil and gas prices and a reduction in our refining margin assumptions by about 30% on average compared with our prior assumption of mid-cycle refining margins.

這導致中長期石油和天然氣價格較低，與我們之前對中期週期煉油利潤率的假設相比，我們對煉油利潤率的假設平均降低了約 30%。

These lower prices and margins, amongst other assumptions, have resulted in several impairments across our portfolio.

這些較低的價格和利潤率，以及其他假設，導致我們的投資組合出現多項減值。

In total, we are writing down $16.8 billion of our assets, post tax, which represents about 6% of our average capital employed.

總的來說，我們減記了 168 億美元的稅後資產，約占我們平均已動用資本的 6%。

Although impairments do not affect our adjusted earnings, they reflect our current outlook of the near- and long-term environment as well as our expectations on capital allocation and development plans.

儘管減值不會影響我們調整後的收益，但它們反映了我們當前對近期和長期環境的展望以及我們對資本配置和發展計劃的預期。

In line with accounting practices, impairment tests are performed on a stand-alone basis at the cash-generating unit level.

根據會計慣例，減值測試在現金產生單位層面單獨進行。

This does not take into account the value generated by the integration of our portfolio.

這沒有考慮整合我們的投資組合所產生的價值。

Given our integrated business model, value from an asset may be realized in other parts of our portfolio.

鑑於我們的綜合業務模型，資產的價值可能會在我們投資組合的其他部分中實現。

And as we continue focusing on cash generation in our assets, we are constantly high-grading our portfolio.

隨著我們繼續專注於資產的現金生成，我們不斷對我們的投資組合進行高評級。

For example, we've previously said that we plan to further rationalize our refining footprint, focusing on the truly strategic assets.

例如，我們之前曾表示，我們計劃進一步合理化我們的煉油足跡，重點關注真正的戰略資產。

We plan to reduce our refining assets from 15 less than 10 refineries over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們計劃將我們的煉油資產從 15 個減少到 10 個以下。

And some of the refining assets that we impaired this quarter will be strategic for us as we evolve these into new low-carbon value chain.

本季度我們受損的一些煉油資產對我們來說具有戰略意義，因為我們將這些資產發展為新的低碳價值鏈。

Our cash generation proved resilient this quarter.

本季度證明我們的現金產生具有彈性。

Cash flow from operations in Q2 2020 was $2.6 billion and was negatively impacted by working capital movements of around $4 billion, driven by the increase in oil and gas prices in the quarter.

2020 年第二季度的運營現金流為 26 億美元，受到本季度石油和天然氣價格上漲推動的約 40 億美元營運資金流動的負面影響。

Our cash flow from operations, excluding working capital movements, amounted to $6.5 billion.

我們的運營現金流（不包括營運資金流動）為 65 億美元。

This primarily reflected lower earnings compared with Q2 2019, partly offset by the cash effect of tax.

這主要反映了與 2019 年第二季度相比較低的收益，部分被稅收的現金影響所抵消。

Cash flow from operations was also negatively impacted by the settlement for the unitization of the Lula field in Brazil.

來自運營的現金流也受到巴西 Lula 油田聯合化的解決方案的負面影響。

This is offset by a positive impact in cash flow from investing activities.

這被投資活動現金流的積極影響所抵消。

So there is no impact in free cash flow from this unitization settlement at the group level.

因此，這種單位化結算在集團層面對自由現金流沒有影響。

I would now like to turn to a longer-term perspective on our cash generation and how our strategy, portfolio actions and operational performance contributed to the step change in our cash flow profile.

我現在想從更長遠的角度來看待我們的現金產生，以及我們的戰略、投資組合行動和運營績效如何促成我們現金流量狀況的逐步變化。

Over the last few years, we have high-graded our portfolio and focused on improving operational excellence across.

在過去的幾年裡，我們對我們的產品組合進行了高度評價，並專注於提高整體的卓越運營。

We now have each of our businesses generating significant cash, improving our resilience and competitiveness through the cycle.

現在，我們的每項業務都產生了大量現金，在整個週期中提高了我們的彈性和競爭力。

With material cash generation from our customer-facing businesses in Downstream and Integrated Gas and resilient cash delivery from Upstream, the repositioned portfolio of higher-value barrels that retain upside potential.

憑藉我們面向客戶的下游和綜合天然氣業務產生的大量現金以及上游的彈性現金交付，重新定位的高價值桶組合仍具有上行潛力。

This has translated into the highest cash flow in our peer group for more than 3 years, and we've demonstrated disciplined execution.

這已轉化為 3 年多來我們同業集團中最高的現金流，並且我們展示了紀律嚴明的執行力。

Our performance on unit cash flow has increased significantly in the last few years in Upstream and Integrated Gas as well as in oil products, which is also leading within our peer group.

過去幾年，我們在上游和綜合天然氣以及石油產品方面的單位現金流量表現顯著提高，這在我們的同行中也處於領先地位。

This shows the quality and resilience of our integrated business model as well as our leading position in deepwater, marketing and LNG in particular, bolstered by our trading and optimization capabilities, which differentiates us in the sector.

這顯示了我們綜合業務模式的質量和彈性，以及我們在深水、營銷和液化天然氣領域的領先地位，這得益於我們的交易和優化能力，這使我們在該領域脫穎而出。

With that, let me hand back to Ben.

有了這個，讓我交還給本。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Jessica.

謝謝，傑西卡。

So let me sum it up.

所以讓我總結一下。

On the one hand, this was a quarter that confirmed our earlier expectations on the challenging macroeconomic condition.

一方面，這個季度證實了我們早先對具有挑戰性的宏觀經濟狀況的預期。

But then on the other hand, it was also a quarter that confirmed our competitive advantages.

但另一方面，也是一個季度證實了我們的競爭優勢。

And this starts with what we have today, strong portfolio with strong fundamentals, market leader of a resilient and growing LNG business with a portfolio that is continuously optimized by our trading capabilities, world-class deepwater asset with very low breakeven prices and Tier 1 resources, the Brazilian presold in the Gulf of Mexico.

這始於我們今天所擁有的，具有強大基本面的強大產品組合，具有彈性和不斷增長的液化天然氣業務的市場領導者，其產品組合通過我們的交易能力不斷優化，世界一流的深水資產，具有極低的盈虧平衡價格和一級資源, 巴西在墨西哥灣預售。

Sector-leading marketing business.

行業領先的營銷業務。

This offers high returns and has been steadily growing, bringing the brand of choice for customers worldwide.

這提供了高回報並且一直在穩步增長，為全球客戶帶來了首選品牌。

But this strong portfolio is managed with disciplined execution, and we are taking tough decisions to strengthen the balance sheet.

但這個強大的投資組合是通過嚴格的執行來管理的，我們正在做出艱難的決定來加強資產負債表。

And we are extracting more value out of the already high-value portfolio, leading the peer group on cash generation.

我們正在從已經具有高價值的投資組合中提取更多價值，在現金生成方面領先同行。

And if you look ahead, our strategy embeds the transition to the cleaner energy system in every single one of our business.

如果您展望未來，我們的戰略將向清潔能源系統的過渡嵌入到我們的每一項業務中。

We're making sound choices, not only looking at the financial side of the balance sheet, but also future-proofing our portfolio.

我們正在做出明智的選擇，不僅著眼於資產負債表的財務方面，而且還著眼於我們的投資組合的未來發展。

We're taking steps to remain competitive, but also reorienting Shell for the future, seeking higher returns through all our businesses, that's grow value per share, delivering superior returns for our shareholders.

我們正在採取措施保持競爭力，同時也在為殼牌的未來重新定位，通過我們所有的業務尋求更高的回報，即增加每股價值，為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。

But this is our investment proposition, platform growing shareholder value.

但這是我們的投資主張，平台不斷增長的股東價值。

Now we are looking forward to providing you with a comprehensive update on all of this on our next Strategy Day, which will be on the 11th of February 2021.

現在，我們期待在 2021 年 2 月 11 日的下一個戰略日為您提供所有這一切的全面更新。

With that, let's go for your questions.

有了這個，讓我們回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) We'll take a question from Oswald Clint with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們將與伯恩斯坦一起回答 Oswald Clint 的問題。

Ben, I'm sorry, just a broad or high-level question, actually, on the topic of hydrogen that something Shell know pretty well, and I see it's blended into your wind project yesterday in the Netherlands.

Ben，對不起，這只是一個寬泛或高層次的問題，實際上是關於殼牌非常了解的氫這個話題，我看到它已經融入了你昨天在荷蘭的風能項目中。

And actually it'll be great if you could talk about expected returns on that project.

實際上，如果您能談談該項目的預期回報，那就太好了。

But the bigger question is, with everything that's happening with hydrogen, is there a risk or are you worried about some of these projects in the Middle East, solar turning into ammonia and transporting ammonia, and then you could crack that back to hydrogen that can be blended into gas residentially, even into power stations and even talking about burning ammonia?

但更大的問題是，隨著氫發生的一切，是否存在風險或者你是否擔心中東的一些項目，太陽能轉化為氨並運輸氨，然後你可以將其分解回氫，可以在住宅中摻入天然氣，甚至摻入發電站，甚至談論燃燒氨？

So is this potentially some serious threat to gas and LNG demand risk, I guess, in much longer term?

那麼，從長遠來看，這是否會對天然氣和液化天然氣需求風險構成潛在的嚴重威脅？

And then secondly, a little bit closer to the quarter.

其次，離四分之一更近一點。

Chemicals pretty strong.

化學品相當強大。

One of the best quarters you've had, I think, in the last 12 months, at least.

我認為，至少在過去 12 個月裡，這是你擁有的最好的季度之一。

Utilization was down, so it's cost reduction and you gave a lot of good group examples there within your comments.

利用率下降了，所以它降低了成本，你在評論中給出了很多很好的小組例子。

But which one was applicable to Chemicals?

但是哪一個適用於化學品？

How did you get the cost out of a finely tuned Chemical business?

您是如何從精心調整的化工業務中獲得成本的？

And frankly, I mean you didn't downgrade your Chemical margins in the macro reset.

坦率地說，我的意思是你沒有在宏觀重置中降低你的化學利潤率。

So can you just give us what are you looking at?

那麼你能告訴我們你在看什麼嗎？

Or when can we expect this next Chemical upcycle to really begin?

或者我們什麼時候可以期待下一個化學上升週期真正開始？

Thanks very much, Oswald.

非常感謝，奧斯瓦爾德。

Really a nice set of questions.

真的是一組很好的問題。

I'll take a stab at both of them and then hand over to Jessica.

我會試一試他們兩個，然後交給傑西卡。

The hydrogen story, yes, it's -- and for those of you who have not paid close attention to that particular press release yesterday evening so we -- in winning the HKN wind tender in the Netherlands, we also have as part of the integration into the Downstream value chain division that we should build a very large hydrogen plant in Rotterdam fueled by green electricity.

氫氣的故事，是的，對於那些沒有密切關注昨天晚上的特定新聞稿的人來說，我們 - 在贏得荷蘭 HKN 風能招標的過程中，我們也將整合到下游價值鏈部門，我們應該在鹿特丹建造一個以綠色電力為燃料的超大型氫工廠。

We will use that hydrogen for which there is, at this point in time, not a high-graded, high-quality market other than, say, industrial use.

我們將使用目前除了工業用途之外沒有高等級、高質量市場的氫氣。

We will use that hydrogen initially in our refining and chemical facilities, but then with a view that we, over time, upgrade it to hydrogen for heavy-duty road transport, building that business in Northwest Europe from the Port of Rotterdam throughout the distribution systems of Northwest Europe.

我們最初將在我們的煉油和化工設施中使用氫氣，但隨著時間的推移，我們會將其升級為用於重型公路運輸的氫氣，從鹿特丹港到整個分銷系統在西北歐建立該業務西北歐。

I think that's a typical example, in my mind, of how these businesses can play to our strength.

在我看來，我認為這是一個典型的例子，說明這些企業如何發揮我們的優勢。

Many a time when we talk about new energies or power, people think of us just being another wind farm developer.

很多時候，當我們談論新能源或新動力時，人們認為我們只是另一個風電場開發商。

And in reality, of course, it needs to be much more sophisticated if we really want to play to our strengths and if you really want to have superior returns that you can build on the back of it.

當然，在現實中，如果我們真的想發揮我們的優勢，並且如果你真的想要獲得可觀的回報，那麼它當然需要更加複雜。

It'll be a bit presumptuous, I think, at this point in time, Oswald, to say, well, these are the returns.

這有點冒昧，我認為，在這個時間點，奧斯瓦爾德，說，嗯，這些是回報。

This is a market that we have to -- but -- and that will take us some time.

這是一個我們必須——但是——這需要我們一些時間的市場。

But I do believe it will set us up very well already as one of the largest, if not the largest, hydrogen player in the mobility sector to really capture very significant parts of that future value pine.

但我確實相信，這將使我們成為移動領域最大（如果不是最大）的氫能參與者之一，從而真正佔據未來價值松樹的非常重要的部分。

You're absolutely right that there are multiple other energy vectors under consideration, ammonia being one of them, and the idea of ammonia for shipping is a good one.

你說得對，還有多種其他能源載體正在考慮中，氨是其中之一，氨用於航運的想法是一個很好的想法。

And indeed, Middle East, cheap solar could be a way of doing it.

事實上，在中東，廉價的太陽能可能是實現這一目標的一種方式。

I couldn't see why that also wouldn't be a way for us if that was a very valuable way of developing it.

如果這是一種非常有價值的開發方式，我不明白為什麼這對我們來說也不是一種方式。

And we try to unlock these types of opportunities with a strategic update of looking at the sectors of the economy to bring value into the house.

我們試圖通過關注經濟部門的戰略更新來釋放這些類型的機會，從而為房屋帶來價值。

So figuring out what customers need and then working back from there.

因此，弄清楚客戶需要什麼，然後從那裡開始工作。

I can also see how hydrogen and liquefaction could be an opportunity, and that's why we are also participating in pathfinding projects to do liquid hydrogen shipping.

我還可以看到氫氣和液化如何成為一個機會，這就是為什麼我們也參與了液態氫運輸的尋路項目。

Now bear in mind, I'm incredibly excited by the opportunities that this will bring, but this will not be a business to rival deepwater in the next 10 years.

請記住，我對這將帶來的機遇感到無比興奮，但在未來 10 年內，這將不會成為與深水競爭的業務。

This will take some time as many of these businesses will take decades to develop.

這將需要一些時間，因為其中許多業務需要數十年才能發展。

But the first movers who lay out the strategic advantages in their own networks and capabilities will be the winners of the future.

但在自身網絡和能力上佈局戰略優勢的先行者，將是未來的贏家。

And that's why you see us go after these opportunities with so much bigger.

這就是為什麼你看到我們以更大的規模追求這些機會。

Chemicals is indeed a bit of a bright spot at this point in time, and everything is, of course, relatively speaking.

化學品在這個時間點確實有點亮點，當然一切都是相對而言的。

I couldn't say that Chemicals is anywhere near sort of average conditions, but some aspects of Chemicals have performed really well.

我不能說 Chemicals 接近平均水平，但 Chemicals 的某些方面表現非常好。

And you can probably guess which ones they are.

您可能會猜到它們是哪些。

So those sectors that feed the detergent market, the personal care market, but also the packaging market, the medical sector, all these segments of our Chemical business have performed well.

因此，那些為洗滌劑市場、個人護理市場以及包裝市場、醫療行業提供服務的部門，我們化工業務的所有這些部門都表現良好。

Not so well, of course, is durable goods, cars, fridges, et cetera.

當然，耐用品、汽車、冰箱等產品的情況不太好。

But then again, these things will probably come a little bit later as we see the economy picking up.

但話又說回來，隨著我們看到經濟回暖，這些事情可能會晚一點到來。

So there is more to come, but I'm hopeful that Chemicals has entered the path of recovery now.

所以還有更多的事情要做，但我希望化學品現在已經進入復甦之路。

In terms of cost and other aspects, Jessica, anything to add?

在成本等方面，Jessica，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Perhaps 2 points.

大概2分。

Just on the first one to emphasize, things like HKN and getting into the wind project in the Netherlands is really the kind of the starting point of creating options and designing and implementing new business models for the low-carbon energy future.

關於第一個要強調的，像 HKN 和進入荷蘭風能項目這樣的事情實際上是為低碳能源未來創造選擇、設計和實施新商業模式的起點。

And linking that to our existing capabilities and where we believe the energy system is moving ultimately to hydrogen -- excuse me, pointed to something.

並將其與我們現有的能力以及我們認為能源系統最終轉向氫的地方聯繫起來 - 對不起，指出了一些東西。

And the integrated value chain that we can create, starting with this wind position, converting it to hydrogen and then bringing it into the transport sector or to the manufacturing sector, that will create differentiated business models for us that I think we're uniquely placed to deliver against and also differentiated return potential.

我們可以創建的集成價值鏈，從這種風能地位開始，將其轉化為氫氣，然後將其帶入運輸部門或製造部門，這將為我們創造差異化的商業模式，我認為我們處於獨特的地位以實現差異化的回報潛力。

So it's not the unsubsidized wind project return that we're interested in.

所以我們感興趣的不是無補貼的風電項目回報。

We're interested in that bigger story, that bigger idea around the integrated value that we believe significant value and returns can be created.

我們對更大的故事感興趣，對我們認為可以創造重要價值和回報的綜合價值的更大想法感興趣。

On the Chemicals business, a couple of points to pull out of the story.

在化學品業務方面，有幾點值得借鑒。

Feedstock has also contributed to some of the better performance that we're seeing in the quarter.

原料也為我們在本季度看到的一些更好的表現做出了貢獻。

So some of the lower costs, the lower prices are helping part of our business.

所以一些較低的成本，較低的價格正在幫助我們的部分業務。

And of course, as Ben mentioned, all of the belt-tightening that we're doing across the organization, every corner of the company is being touched and that's also being reflected in the operating cost for Chemicals.

當然，正如 Ben 所提到的，我們在整個組織中所做的所有緊縮措施都涉及到公司的每個角落，這也反映在化學品的運營成本中。

To Alastair Syme with Citi.

致花旗銀行的 Alastair Syme。

Can I just ask about impairment?

我可以只問減值嗎？

I was still trying to figure out how much of the macro change is ultimately COVID-related versus something that's been maybe building in your thinking for some time.

我仍在嘗試弄清楚宏觀變化中有多少最終是與 COVID 相關的，而不是你可能已經考慮了一段時間的東西。

For instance, I made the observation that the plan to rationalize the refining footprint from 15 to 10 assets has been in place for some time.

例如，我觀察到將煉油足跡從 15 項資產合理化到 10 項資產的計劃已經實施了一段時間。

So what sort of why wait until now to impair?

那麼，為什麼要等到現在才損壞呢？

And then the second question, just to pull on the strap-line that Shell is becoming a leaner, more focused company.

然後是第二個問題，只是為了強調殼牌正在成為一家更精簡、更專注的公司。

It sounds very similar to something I remember at the time of the BG acquisition.

這聽起來與我記憶中收購 BG 時的情況非常相似。

So I wonder really what that means and how you think you'll measure success on that metric.

所以我真的很想知道這意味著什麼，以及您認為您將如何衡量該指標的成功。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Alastair.

謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。

Would you take the impairment question first, Jessica?

傑西卡，你能先回答減值問題嗎？

I'll work to more focus.

我會更加專注。

Yes.

是的。

So the impairments are a reflection or an outcome of our resetting our long-term prices for oil, gas and refining margins, in particular.

因此，減值是我們重新設定石油、天然氣和煉油利潤的長期價格的反映或結果，尤其是。

That was the main driver, price.

這是主要的驅動因素，價格。

But of course, we've completely changed our CapEx profile in the near term, and that also has implications.

但當然，我們在短期內完全改變了我們的資本支出概況，這也有影響。

The ultimate value will realize from some of our assets.

最終價值將從我們的一些資產中實現。

So both the price change and the shift in some of the developments that we'll do, given the CapEx program that we're following, also has an impact.

因此，考慮到我們正在遵循的資本支出計劃，價格變化和我們將要做的一些開發的轉變也會產生影響。

Now how much of that is COVID versus kind of other circumstances, a significant portion of it is COVID.

現在，與其他情況相比，其中有多少是 COVID，其中很大一部分是 COVID。

Certainly, the near-term outlook is largely, if not entirely, driven by the macroeconomic implications of what COVID has unleashed.

當然，近期前景在很大程度上（如果不是全部）受到 COVID 所釋放的宏觀經濟影響的驅動。

But indeed, as you mentioned, Alastair, there are some strategic elements that we have been speaking to for the last couple of years.

但事實上，正如你提到的，Alastair，過去幾年我們一直在討論一些戰略要素。

So our outlook on the refining sector and where we believe we can create value and where we see the refining business fitting into the future of energy and the future low-carbon energy system, certainly is influencing our view on the assets and the potential that we see with the assets, but that came into play as well, both in terms of our margin outlook as well as kind of the investment profile that we have for our assets.

因此，我們對煉油行業的看法以及我們認為我們可以創造價值的地方以及我們認為煉油業務適合未來能源和未來低碳能源系統的地方，肯定會影響我們對資產和潛力的看法看到資產，但這也發揮了作用，無論是在我們的利潤率前景還是我們對資產的投資概況方面。

And then on the more focus, I do, first of all, believe, Alastair, that the BG acquisition gave us more focus.

然後在更多的關注點上，首先，我相信，Alastair，BG 的收購讓我們更加關注。

So on the back of it, we created from 2 strong parts of our portfolio, 2 really strong crown jewels and maybe even helped the third one.

因此，在它的背後，我們從我們投資組合中的兩個強大部分創建了兩個非常強大的皇冠珠寶，甚至可能幫助了第三個。

So our Deep Water business, which was a good business, became a really core focus area in our portfolio as we added the BG deepwater assets into it.

因此，我們的深水業務是一項很好的業務，隨著我們將 BG 深水資產添加到其中，它成為我們投資組合中真正的核心重點領域。

And very clearly, now it is a foundation piece going forward.

很明顯，現在它是向前發展的基礎。

And the same can be said about our LNG business where we -- basically through combining number one, two, and if you go a bit further deep, the Repsol acquisition, also #3, into a really significant, now global player that is totally unrivaled.

對於我們的液化天然氣業務，我們也可以這樣說——基本上是通過結合第一、第二，如果你再深入一點，收購雷普索爾，也是第三，成為一個真正重要的、現在完全是全球性的參與者無與倫比的。

We -- you could argue that some of our trading capabilities were further boosted as well, and that's our third crown jewel that we have.

我們 - 你可以爭辯說我們的一些交易能力也得到了進一步提升，這是我們擁有的第三顆皇冠上的明珠。

And then in the process, we went out of oil sands.

然後在這個過程中，我們用完了油砂。

We rationalized the portfolio in one relatively concentrated effort with $30 billion of assets that we got out of, with another $10 billion being worked on, the half of which has been delivered already last year.

我們通過一項相對集中的努力使投資組合合理化，我們撤出了 300 億美元的資產，另外還有 100 億美元正在處理，其中一半已於去年交付。

So yes, indeed, the portfolio has become much more concentrated on back of that BG deal.

所以是的，確實，在 BG 交易的支持下，投資組合變得更加集中。

Now can we do that again?

現在我們可以再做一次嗎？

Well, in a different way, yes, we can.

嗯，以不同的方式，是的，我們可以。

I do believe that if, indeed, we reduce our refining footprint, we probably have a much more high-graded view on how we want to cluster our manufacturing assets in general together.

我確實相信，如果我們確實減少了我們的煉油足跡，我們可能會對我們希望如何將我們的製造資產集中在一起有一個更高級別的看法。

So Refining and Chemicals, I think, is now really down to a very high-quality core footprint around which we can trade and optimize and that can serve multiple segments of the economy so that, again, will be a portfolio simplification in that area with all the simplifications that come with it, all the attributes that organizationally hang of it can be made much more focused.

因此，我認為，煉油和化工現在真正歸結為一個非常高質量的核心足跡，我們可以圍繞它進行交易和優化，並且可以服務於經濟的多個部分，因此，再次，將是該領域的投資組合簡化它帶來的所有簡化，組織上掛在它身上的所有屬性都可以變得更加集中。

And the same will be true for our Upstream portfolio.

我們的上游投資組合也是如此。

I have no doubt that at the end of the journey, we can present you with a much more high-graded focused portfolio that really concentrates on the core assets within it, core countries within it and where we will have a differentiated approach, do what it is that we will really nurture and look after and what we will really manage is for residual value.

我毫不懷疑，在旅程結束時，我們可以為您呈現一個更高級別的重點投資組合，真正專注於其中的核心資產，其中的核心國家以及我們將採用差異化方法的地方，做什麼就是我們會真正去培育和照顧，我們真正去管理的是為了剩餘價值。

And then with all of that, I'm sure we can also, having learned in the last 6 months how to operate things differently, become much more focused about where we want to emphasize controls and oversight.

然後有了所有這些，我相信我們也可以，在過去 6 個月中學會瞭如何以不同的方式運作事物，變得更加專注於我們想要強調控制和監督的地方。

So having had to work on a very -- either localized level or a very centralized level, we are discovering new ways in which we can actually effectively manage this very large portfolio of businesses, markets, assets, et cetera.

因此，我們不得不在非常本地化的層面或非常集中的層面上工作，我們正在發現新的方法，我們可以通過這些方法有效地管理這個非常龐大的業務、市場、資產等組合。

And also there, therefore, we can make some further simplification, which ultimately will lead to more nimbleness, but also more focus on where we want to put our attention, where we want to put our money, where we want to make our difference.

因此，我們還可以進一步簡化，這最終會帶來更多的靈活性，但也會更加專注於我們想要關注的地方，我們想要投入的資金，我們想要發揮作用的地方。

It will be, therefore, a slightly different story than the BG story, but it will be an equally compelling story, Alastair.

因此，這將是一個與 BG 故事略有不同的故事，但它將是一個同樣引人入勝的故事，阿拉斯泰爾。

We'll hear from Michele Della Vigna with Goldman Sachs.

我們將聽取高盛的 Michele Della Vigna 的意見。

Ben and Jessica, it's Michele.

本和傑西卡，我是米歇爾。

I wanted to ask you 2 questions.

我想問你2個問題。

The first one is about cash distributions to shareholders.

第一個是關於對股東的現金分配。

You operate in a highly cyclical business, and it's important to preserve flexibility.

您在高度週期性的業務中運營，保持靈活性很重要。

But I was wondering how you're thinking about the current cash distribution model of progressive dividend and buybacks in upcycles versus a possible model of progressive -- of variable dividends with a guaranteed floor and the more cyclical element to it as well?

但我想知道你是如何考慮當前的漸進式股息和回購上升週期的現金分配模型與可能的漸進式 - 具有保證底線和更多周期性元素的可變股息模型？

And then secondly, in terms of investment opportunities, you continue to upgrade your portfolio.

其次，就投資機會而言，您將繼續升級您的投資組合。

I was wondering if the economic environment improves and you can increase your CapEx back towards the mid-20s, which project and which area would you give priority to for that extra investment.

我想知道經濟環境是否改善，您可以將資本支出增加到 20 年代中期，您會優先考慮哪個項目和哪個領域進行額外投資。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks very much, Michele.

非常感謝，米歇爾。

Why don't you take the shareholder distribution question first, Jessica?

你為什麼不先回答股東分配問題，傑西卡？

I will talk a little bit about the CapEx and upgrade portfolio.

我將談談資本支出和升級組合。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

And it's a very important question and one that we spend a considerable amount of time considering and looking at different alternatives and options to ensure that the dividend policy that we have is right for the company and, hopefully, right for our shareholders.

這是一個非常重要的問題，我們花費大量時間考慮和研究不同的替代方案和選擇，以確保我們擁有的股息政策適合公司，並希望適合我們的股東。

It's also an area that we've actively sought input from our shareholders on as well, and we continue to do that.

這也是我們積極徵求股東意見的領域，我們將繼續這樣做。

I think particularly at this moment in time, given, as you said, this high degree of cyclicality that we're experiencing and particularly with the uncertainty around the outlook, our view is that certain level of stability is warranted and appropriate and getting to a dividend level that is sustainable and resilient through the cycle and through considerable stress, which brought us to the dividend level that we're having today.

我認為，特別是在這個時刻，正如你所說，鑑於我們正在經歷的這種高度週期性，尤其是在前景不確定的情況下，我們認為一定程度的穩定性是必要和適當的，並達到在整個週期和相當大的壓力下可持續和有彈性的股息水平，這使我們達到了今天的股息水平。

As things recover, at this moment in time, we think the progressive dividend is the right way to go.

隨著情況的恢復，此時此刻，我們認為累進紅利是正確的方法。

Of course, we can top that up with share buybacks, and I would expect that would be a feature as we have excess cash in terms of the nature of shareholder distributions going forward.

當然，我們可以通過股票回購來彌補這一點，我希望這將是一個特點，因為就未來股東分配的性質而言，我們擁有多餘的現金。

But at this moment in time, I think right now, we see the value of stability and introducing a high degree of volatility around the dividend, particularly at this moment in time, didn't look like the right choice for us, but we actively review it.

但在這個時刻，我認為現在，我們看到了穩定的價值，並在股息周圍引入了高度的波動性，特別是在這個時刻，這對我們來說似乎不是正確的選擇，但我們積極地審查它。

And as the company changes, cash flow changes over the next 5 to 10 years, different models may be appropriate, and we'll continue to actively consider it.

而且隨著公司的變化，未來5到10年的現金流變化，不同的模型可能是合適的，我們會繼續積極考慮。

But with the progressive dividend, combined with share buybacks, we think that's likely the right outcome for us at this moment in time.

但隨著累進股息，再加上股票回購，我們認為這對我們來說可能是目前正確的結果。

And then on the portfolio development and where to grow CapEx back, of course, we will give you a lot more detail in the Strategy Day when we get there, and we have done a lot of work, and we have a better view on, indeed, how that economic recovery is playing out.

然後是投資組合開發以及資本支出增長的地方，當然，當我們到達那裡時，我們會在戰略日給你更多的細節，我們已經做了很多工作，我們有更好的看法，事實上，經濟復甦的效果如何。

But there's a few hints already, of course, in today's material and also if you look back at our Management Day last year.

但是，當然，在今天的材料中以及如果您回顧一下我們去年的管理日，已經有一些提示。

So if you look back at our Management Day last year, we were going to keep Upstream basically in sustained mode.

因此，如果您回顧一下我們去年的管理日，我們將基本上保持上游處於持續模式。

We were going to put disproportionate growth into the transition themes, and we were going to mature over time a Power business that will position us for the future.

我們打算將不成比例的增長放入過渡主題中，並且我們將隨著時間的推移成熟一個電力業務，這將為我們的未來定位。

If you look at our capital program today, which, of course, we had to vigorously scale back, you will basically see that we are not sustaining our Upstream with the sort of capital nurturing that we give it.

如果你看看我們今天的資本計劃，當然，我們不得不大力縮減，你基本上會發現我們並沒有通過我們提供的那種資本培育來維持我們的上游。

We still try to grow our transition themes where we can, partly also because there's projects underway.

我們仍在嘗試盡可能地發展我們的過渡主題，部分原因還在於正在進行的項目。

And we preserve a certain amount of money for good opportunities in the Power theme.

並且我們保留一定數量的錢用於Power主題中的好機會。

Now if we find ourselves a bit more cash to spend and if we want to prioritize some of that cash back again to growing capital project portfolio, first of all, we will have plenty to choose from because a lot of it has been squeezed out of this year, potentially even next year into years to come.

現在，如果我們發現自己有更多的現金可以花，並且如果我們想再次優先將其中的一些現金返還給不斷增長的資本項目組合，首先，我們將有很多選擇，因為其中很多已經被擠出了今年，甚至明年甚至未來幾年。

So we will have a very rich cupboard to pick from and we will, of course, pick the best projects.

因此，我們將有一個非常豐富的櫥櫃可供選擇，當然，我們會選擇最好的項目。

But you will probably see the same sort of trend as a trend between today's program, what we were talking about last year.

但是你可能會看到與今天節目之間的趨勢相同的趨勢，我們去年談論的是什麼。

So in other words, a preference for leaning into the energy transition, a desire to build the business of the future, but all of that having to compete with what you could almost call the base projects in Upstream that bring a certain return around and that we also have to sustain in order to provide the cash for the future.

所以換句話說，傾向於能源轉型，渴望建立未來的業務，但所有這些都必須與你幾乎可以稱之為上游基礎項目的競爭，這些項目會帶來一定的回報，而且我們還必須維持下去，以便為未來提供現金。

So I think that healthy tension where the different sort of strategic vectors compete for capital, we will maintain, but we will have a clear view to understand our capital allocation, we lean into the energy system of the future.

因此，我認為不同類型的戰略載體爭奪資本的健康緊張局勢，我們將保持，但我們將清楚地了解我們的資本分配，我們傾向於未來的能源系統。

With more details to come, Michele, in February next year.

明年 2 月，Michele 將提供更多詳細信息。

We'll hear from Thomas Adolff with Crédit Suisse.

我們將聽取瑞士信貸的托馬斯·阿道夫 (Thomas Adolff) 的意見。

Jessica, Ben, 2 questions for me as well.

傑西卡、本，還有 2 個問題要問我。

Just firstly, on Trading.

首先，關於交易。

Trading, obviously, is a key part of how you run and optimize your business and your value chain, be it in oil, gas and in the future, electricity.

顯然，交易是您如何經營和優化業務和價值鏈的關鍵部分，無論是石油、天然氣還是未來的電力。

And in this quarter, you generated strong earnings in oil.

在本季度，您在石油方面獲得了強勁的收益。

They're still in gas products' life.

他們仍然在天然氣產品的生活中。

But generally speaking, how differentiated and how difficult is it to replicate such business model as yours?

但一般來說，像你們這樣的商業模式，複製起來有多差異化，難度有多大？

And then secondly, as it relates to the electricity business, and I'm excluding trading optimization here.

其次，因為它與電力業務有關，我在這裡不包括交易優化。

In your view, what is the competitive advantage that Shell brings versus in terms of the incumbents, the utility companies?

在您看來，與公用事業公司相比，殼牌帶來的競爭優勢是什麼？

And what are the benefits or trade-offs of having everything under one roof?

將一切都集中在一個屋簷下有什麼好處或權衡？

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks, Thomas, 2 very important questions.

謝謝，Thomas，2 個非常重要的問題。

Usually, I would talk about Electricity business and Jessica about Trading.

通常，我會談論電力業務，而 Jessica 會談論貿易。

Why don't we flip it around?

我們為什麼不翻轉它呢？

I will talk about Trading, and Jessica will talk about the logic that we want to deploy in our Power business.

我將談論貿易，傑西卡將談論我們想要在我們的電力業務中部署的邏輯。

So is Trading really differentiated?

那麼交易真的有差異化嗎？

Or if you -- if there is a strong contango in the market, well, people who actually are so minded can make money, whether you are a good or a bad trader.

或者，如果你——如果市場上有很強的正價差，那麼，不管你是好交易員還是壞交易員，真正有想法的人都可以賺錢。

Well, first of all, let me say, indeed, we did make money off the conventional contango plays.

好吧，首先，讓我說，確實，我們確實從傳統的期貨溢價交易中賺錢了。

We did very well, and we have a lot of opportunities to do so.

我們做得很好，我們有很多機會這樣做。

But it's not just a conventional contango plays we make money with.

但這不僅僅是我們賺錢的傳統期貨溢價遊戲。

We are very well positioned to enter into contango plays of nonbenchmark crudes that we understand a whole lot better than your average commodity trader in the market.

我們完全有能力參與非基準原油的期貨溢價交易，我們比市場上的普通商品交易員更了解這些原油。

We can also make money out of contango plays in blending components, particularly in fuel oil where the reconstitution of these components into end products, having gone through a contango phase, can be value that is very hard to see unless you truly understand structure and the nature of the business.

我們還可以從混合成分中的期貨溢價中獲利，特別是在燃料油中，在經歷了期貨溢價階段後，將這些成分重組為最終產品可能是很難看到的價值，除非你真正了解結構和業務的性質。

So yes, contango plays have been important, but I think we do contango on steroids.

所以是的，contango plays 一直很重要，但我認為我們在類固醇上做 contango。

Then if you look at second factor of value creation, it's around volatility.

然後，如果你看一下價值創造的第二個因素，那就是波動性。

And of course, a lot of people can make money in volatility.

當然，很多人都可以在波動中賺錢。

A lot of people, by the way, can also lose a lot of money.

順便說一句，很多人也會損失很多錢。

But what we see, again, is arbitrage opportunities that we can capture, and we can probably see and understand and lock in these arbitrage opportunities a bit better than some of the others.

但我們再次看到的是我們可以捕捉到的套利機會，我們可能比其他一些更好地看到、理解和鎖定這些套利機會。

That is because we are very well positioned with our marketing positions around the world, shipping operations that have access to a lot of data, our refining positions that we have.

那是因為我們在世界各地的營銷地位、可以訪問大量數據的航運業務、我們擁有的精煉地位都處於非常有利的地位。

And the sheer trading flow that we have gives us a data flow that allows us to really eke out transient value a whole lot better than perhaps your average trader.

我們擁有的純粹交易流為我們提供了一個數據流，使我們能夠比您的普通交易員更好地真正獲得瞬時價值。

And then again, we can do it with assets.

再一次，我們可以用資產來做到這一點。

It's not just a matter of, can I arbitrage unlocking an advantage, but again, can I lock it in or blending in unusual ways?

這不僅僅是一個問題，我可以通過套利來釋放優勢，但同樣，我可以鎖定它或以不尋常的方式融合嗎？

Or can I do really things that others can't do?

或者我真的可以做別人做不到的事情嗎？

And let me give you a really nice example.

讓我給你一個很好的例子。

So take the Pernis refinery in Rotterdam, largest refinery in Europe, sits in a market where it produces normally quite a bit of jet fuel.

因此，以歐洲最大的煉油廠鹿特丹的 Pernis 煉油廠為例，它所在的市場通常會生產相當多的噴氣燃料。

That market disappeared for 90%.

那個市場消失了 90%。

We were able to completely reconstruct the way we work around this refinery, but that it could produce 0 jet fuel, but that we could buy jet fuel, make money on the -- on that particular trade and then, again, reconstitute the products coming out of its refinery to make money elsewhere.

我們能夠完全重建我們圍繞這家煉油廠工作的方式，但它可以生產 0 噴氣燃料，但我們可以購買噴氣燃料，在特定貿易上賺錢，然後再次重組即將到來的產品從煉油廠到別處賺錢。

That's not ordinary trading.

這不是普通的交易。

That is actually optimizing market positions that we know better than anybody how to take advantage of.

這實際上是優化我們比任何人都知道如何利用的市場地位。

And then more generally, the amount of data flow that comes through our trading and optimization organization is, I think, probably the richest in the world.

然後更一般地說，我認為通過我們的交易和優化組織的數據流量可能是世界上最豐富的。

So again, if we want to, we can understand where positions are opening up, which positions are smart to take, but also how we can see things coming.

因此，如果我們願意，我們可以再次了解哪些職位空缺，哪些職位是明智的選擇，以及我們如何看待事情的發展。

So every week, on every Wednesday and every Sunday night, I read the trading analysis of what we see coming in the week, and I see how we respond to it.

因此，每週，每週三和每個週日晚上，我都會閱讀對本週即將發生的情況的交易分析，並了解我們如何應對。

The insights that we have, truly unique.

我們擁有的見解，真正獨一無二。

And they are not just trying to understand what is happening with hydrocarbons around the world that tap in into multiple data repositories of every aspect of the economy.

而且他們不只是試圖了解世界各地的碳氫化合物正在發生什麼，這些碳氫化合物進入了經濟各個方面的多個數據存儲庫。

So it is a very sophisticated machinery that also works with the underlying asset base and the underlying market positions to create value that others cannot create.

因此，它是一種非常複雜的機器，還可以與基礎資產基礎和基礎市場地位一起創造其他人無法創造的價值。

So yes, did it work particularly well in today's environment?

那麼，是的，它在今天的環境中是否特別有效？

Of course, it worked particularly well.

當然，它的效果特別好。

But again, it is -- it has an element of uniqueness in it that I believe sets us apart from many of the other conventional players in the market.

但同樣，它有一個獨特的元素，我相信這使我們有別於市場上的許多其他傳統參與者。

Let me hand over to have you talk about electricity.

讓我交給你談談電力。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Thomas, for the question.

托馬斯，謝謝你提出這個問題。

And let me speak to a number of points where I think Shell brings distinct competitive advantage to the Power sector.

讓我談談我認為殼牌為電力行業帶來獨特競爭優勢的幾點。

Start off with, we are the second largest marketer of power in the U.S., which is the largest market available -- energy market available to private players.

首先，我們是美國第二大電力營銷商，這是最大的可用市場——可供私人參與者使用的能源市場。

And we've created that position over the last 10, 15 years, and that gives us capability insight that we're increasingly leveraging in other parts of the world, whether that be in Europe, in Australia or Brazil.

我們在過去 10 年、15 年裡創造了這個職位，這給了我們能力洞察力，我們越來越多地在世界其他地區利用這些洞察力，無論是在歐洲、澳大利亞還是巴西。

So we have experience and capability today in the power system that is unique, certainly in our sector.

因此，我們今天在電力系統方面擁有獨一無二的經驗和能力，當然在我們的行業中也是如此。

If you think about the future and the future of the energy system, power will be essential into the decarbonization of the economy.

如果您考慮能源系統的未來和未來，電力對於經濟脫碳至關重要。

And going back to the project we were just speaking about, HKN, it's a great example of what the future of energy is going to look like, what the future business models are going to look like.

回到我們剛剛談到的項目，HKN，這是一個很好的例子，說明能源的未來會是什麼樣子，未來的商業模式會是什麼樣子。

I think there's a few companies that can compete with Shell in terms of trying to create these integrated business models and value chains.

我認為，在嘗試創建這些集成業務模型和價值鏈方面，有幾家公司可以與殼牌競爭。

There's a few companies that could participate in the building and operations of these large wind farms, then build the largest electrolyzer planet to convert that to hydrogen and then bring that to refineries, our own refineries which has certain amount of derisking in it, but importantly, then to build out the hydrogen molecule flows for transport in Europe.

有幾家公司可以參與這些大型風力發電場的建設和運營，然後建造最大的電解槽星球，將其轉化為氫氣，然後將其帶到煉油廠，我們自己的煉油廠有一定的風險降低，但重要的是，然後建立氫分子流以在歐洲運輸。

And I don't think there's any other company that can span that in the same way, bringing capabilities that we have today and positions that we have today to serve the business models and the future energy flows.

而且我認為沒有任何其他公司可以以同樣的方式跨越這一點，帶來我們今天擁有的能力和我們今天擁有的地位來服務於商業模式和未來的能源流動。

Our position in energy around the globe, I think, again, gives us unique insight on how energy flows today.

我認為，我們在全球能源領域的地位再次讓我們對當今的能源流動方式有了獨特的見解。

That speaks to the trading capability and, importantly, the position that we have with -- across different sectors, where we're increasingly taking a sectorial approach to how we believe the systems need to decarbonize.

這說明了交易能力，重要的是，我們在不同部門的立場，我們越來越多地採用部門方法來解決我們認為系統需要脫碳的方式。

The leadership that we can bring to that in terms of our convening power and bringing groups of people together to figure out how do we decarbonize these different value chains and then bringing genuine skill and capability and making that happen.

就我們的召集力而言，我們可以發揮領導作用，將一群人聚集在一起，弄清楚我們如何使這些不同的價值鏈脫碳，然後帶來真正的技能和能力並實現這一目標。

We've talked about how we're doing that in the aviation sector.

我們已經討論了我們如何在航空領域做到這一點。

That's more speaking to kind of future of biofuels and other and bio jets.

這更像是關於生物燃料和其他生物噴氣機的未來。

So a different way of serving that sector.

因此，以不同的方式服務於該行業。

But if you think about the IT sector, the Microsoft, the Amazons, the Facebook, they have significant power needs around the globe, and they're trying to decarbonize their companies, and they're speaking to us because we're present around the globe.

但是如果你想想 IT 行業，微軟、亞馬遜、Facebook，他們在全球範圍內都有巨大的電力需求，他們正在努力使他們的公司脫碳，他們正在與我們交談，因為我們在各地全球。

We bring the power capability today, certainly from the trading perspective and increasingly from the generation and development perspective, solar and wind assets.

我們今天帶來了電力能力，當然是從貿易的角度，越來越多地從發電和開發的角度來看，太陽能和風能資產。

And again, being able to bring together these different capabilities, bring together different participants in a sector to figure out how do we decarbonize these sectors.

再次，能夠將這些不同的能力結合在一起，將一個部門的不同參與者聚集在一起，以弄清楚我們如何使這些部門脫碳。

And to do this globally, leveraging our assets and our people and skills, I believe, is a distinct advantage that we bring to power.

我相信，要在全球範圍內做到這一點，利用我們的資產、我們的人員和技能，是我們上台後的一個明顯優勢。

And next, we have Biraj Borkhataria.

接下來，我們有 Biraj Borkhataria。

I have also 2, please.

我也有2個，謝謝。

The first one is on the CrossWind announcement yesterday.

第一個是在昨天的 CrossWind 公告中。

Obviously, there's a bunch of elements attached to that, that you've run through and it does strike me as something very Shell like to find innovative ways to do things.

顯然，有很多附加的元素，你已經經歷過，它確實讓我印象深刻，因為殼牌非常喜歡尋找創新的方法來做事。

I guess the question I have is, is these innovations are not always good for the shareholders?

我想我的問題是，這些創新並不總是對股東有利嗎？

So maybe could you talk about the extra elements of that project and what it does for project returns?

那麼也許你能談談該項目的額外元素以及它對項目回報的作用嗎？

I'm just trying to understand whether -- or understand the benefits of being a fast mover versus a fast follower in that type of business.

我只是想了解是否——或者了解在這類業務中成為快速行動者與快速追隨者的好處。

And then the second question is on your Shales business.

然後第二個問題是關於您的 Shales 業務。

There's obviously a lot of focus on new energies at the moment, but you're still planning to spend $1.5 million on Shales this year, which is more than in new energies.

目前顯然很多人關注新能源，但今年你仍計劃在 Shales 上花費 150 萬美元，這比新能源要多。

And a couple of years ago, you and all your peers were extremely positive on that theme and talked about growing the business.

幾年前，你和你所有的同事都對這個主題非常積極，並談到了發展業務。

And I just wonder, at this point, given your view on commodity prices, could you outline why you need to be in that business at all?

我只是想知道，在這一點上，鑑於您對大宗商品價格的看法，您能否概述一下為什麼您需要從事該業務？

It doesn't appear that you have an obvious strategic advantage.

看來你們沒有明顯的戰略優勢。

The track record isn't great.

往績記錄不是很好。

And you've got plenty of competition that is willing to plough more money in that business model, which hasn't been proven, especially at scale.

而且你有很多競爭對手願意在這種商業模式上投入更多資金，這種商業模式尚未得到證實，尤其是在規模上。

So would you consider exiting?

那麼你會考慮退出嗎？

That would be -- just some thoughts on that would be helpful.

那將是-- 對此的一些想法會有所幫助。

Thanks, Biraj.

謝謝，比拉吉。

Let me talk about CrossWind, and Jessica will say a few words about Shales and the strategic logic and what we're trying to achieve there.

讓我談談 CrossWind，Jessica 會談談 Shales 和戰略邏輯以及我們正在努力實現的目標。

Indeed, I thank you for recognizing that doing a project like CrossWind with a broader value chain hanging off it is very Shell like.

事實上，我感謝您認識到像 CrossWind 這樣的項目有更廣泛的價值鏈懸而未決，這非常像 Shell。

I think that is an important observation.

我認為這是一個重要的觀察。

We like to think that as well for the reasons that Jessica just mentioned.

出於 Jessica 剛才提到的原因，我們也願意這麼想。

We are able to actually assemble a future value chain, not just building a wind farm and trying to sell it in the merchant market in the Netherlands, but assembling an entire value chain around it.

我們能夠真正組裝一個未來的價值鏈，不僅僅是建造一個風電場並試圖在荷蘭的商業市場上出售它，而是圍繞它組裝一個完整的價值鏈。

That again will set us up to win.

這將再次讓我們獲勝。

What the returns of these value chains are?

這些價值鏈的回報是什麼？

Well, let me focus on the power project first.

好吧，讓我先關注電力項目。

We think the power project is competitive.

我們認為電力項目具有競爭力。

But the -- and what exactly the returns are?

但是——回報究竟是多少？

We normally don't disclose very much depends, of course, also on your outlook on the power market.

我們通常不會透露很多信息，當然，這也取決於您對電力市場的看法。

But then again, setting up the value chains of the future, forward integrating it into hydrogen for transportation and industrial use is actually a pathfinding way that will, in the midterm, I think, give differentiated returns, simply because we are capturing markets where people want to decarbonize, but do not have the available tools to do so.

但話又說回來，建立未來的價值鏈，將其整合到用於運輸和工業用途的氫氣中，實際上是一種開拓性的方式，我認為，在中期，它會帶來差異化的回報，這僅僅是因為我們正在佔領人們所在的市場想要脫碳，但沒有可用的工具來實現。

So before such a technology becomes common good and completely commoditizes and becomes subject to the usual competitive forces, there is a sweet spot where, indeed, very good revs can be captured.

因此，在這種技術成為公共利益並完全商品化並受制於通常的競爭力量之前，有一個最佳點，確實可以捕獲非常好的轉速。

But to enter that sweet spot, indeed, you have to take risk.

但要進入那個甜蜜點，確實，你必須承擔風險。

Or sometimes, you have to figure out ways and means to make the economics work, sometimes even with government support and other ways to sort of level the playing field against the conventional alternatives for the industrial and mobility sectors.

或者有時，你必須想辦法讓經濟發揮作用，有時甚至需要政府支持和其他方式來為工業和交通部門的傳統替代方案提供公平的競爭環境。

That is our game as well.

那也是我們的遊戲。

We are not just a commodity player where we step in as the #4 or #5 follower.

我們不僅僅是作為#4 或#5 追隨者介入的商品玩家。

We break open new technologies, new markets.

我們開拓新技術、新市場。

We were trailblazers also in the field of LNG.

我們也是液化天然氣領域的開拓者。

I am sure that you would be able to go back to those times.

我相信你能回到那個時代。

People were wondering, "Why bother?

人們不解：“何必呢？

This is a small market.

這是一個小市場。

Doesn't really matter." Here we are, indeed, many years later, but now we believe it's one of the most successful sectors of the oil and gas industry going forward.

真的無關緊要。” 多年後，我們確實到了這裡，但現在我們相信它是石油和天然氣行業未來最成功的部門之一。

So sometimes, you have to place these things in a somewhat longer perspective, Biraj.

所以有時候，你必須從更長遠的角度來看待這些事情，Biraj。

It's -- are we splashing billions of dollars on hydrogen?

這是——我們是否在氫氣上投入了數十億美元？

No, of course, not.

不，當然不。

This is a -- these are structurally seeding our businesses, and we have to go at a pace that it is absorbable, that we understand how we are derisking it, that we are ready to make the next step, et cetera.

這是一個 - 這些在結構上為我們的業務播種，我們必須以它可以吸收的速度前進，我們了解我們如何降低它的風險，我們準備好邁出下一步，等等。

But it is definitely a path we want to travel because we do believe that in years to come, we will look back on these decisions and say, "Right, that was a good strategic move, and now we are enjoying a growing business with strong returns."

但這絕對是我們想要走的路，因為我們確實相信，在未來幾年，我們會回顧這些決定並說，“是的，這是一個很好的戰略舉措，現在我們正享受著強大的業務增長回報。”

On Shales then, Jessica?

那麼在頁岩上，傑西卡？

Yes.

是的。

So on Shales, fundamentals of Shales can translate to what we believe is a high-return business.

因此，在 Shales 上，Shales 的基本面可以轉化為我們認為的高回報業務。

If you've got the right assets, you've got the right capability and you steward the resources appropriately, we can see our way to high returns with our Shales business.

如果您擁有合適的資產，擁有合適的能力並適當地管理資源，我們就可以通過我們的頁岩業務找到獲得高回報的途徑。

Our Permian asset, we think, is one of the kind of crown jewels in the Shale industry.

我們認為，我們的二疊紀資產是頁岩行業皇冠上的明珠之一。

The capability we've developed in terms of our wells' performance, we believe it's best-in-class.

我們在油井性能方面開發的能力，我們相信它是一流的。

And our stewardship of capital and the kind of unit development costs we've been able to achieve and what we're doing on the operational expense side that Ben spoke to earlier, speaks to, I think, the quality of our management as well as the quality of our stewardship.

我們的資本管理和我們已經能夠實現的單位開發成本類型，以及我們在運營費用方面正在做的事情，Ben 之前談到過，我認為，這說明了我們的管理質量以及我們的管理質量。

So when you put those different elements together, it can be a very exciting business and a very competitive business in the Upstream sector.

因此，當你將這些不同的元素放在一起時，它可能會成為上游行業中一項非常令人興奮和極具競爭力的業務。

And of course, at this moment in time, I think it's challenging for many Upstream businesses to look particularly good at the very low point in the cycle.

當然，在這個時刻，我認為對於許多上游企業來說，在周期的最低點看起來特別好是一項挑戰。

So I wouldn't use this moment to necessarily judge the quality of the sector nor the quality of the business.

所以我不會用這個時刻來判斷這個行業的質量或業務的質量。

But again, you need to have each of those elements in play in order to achieve good return business.

但同樣，您需要讓所有這些要素發揮作用，才能獲得良好的回報業務。

A couple of other points I would -- I think, are worth mentioning.

我認為還有其他幾點值得一提。

I think the Shales business has been an important area of innovation for the Upstream business.

我認為頁岩業務一直是上游業務創新的重要領域。

We've gained a lot from our participation in our Shales business that we've translated to other parts of Shell, where we've tested some of our digital technologies, innovative ways we're working with data and learning how to do the Upstream business out of a very different pace.

我們從參與我們的頁岩業務中收穫了很多，我們已經將這些業務轉化為殼牌的其他部分，在那裡我們測試了我們的一些數字技術、我們處理數據的創新方式以及學習如何做上游企業走出了截然不同的步伐。

So I think there's other knock-on benefits of continuing to operate in that sector.

因此，我認為繼續在該領域開展業務還有其他連鎖反應。

In addition, as most of you know, there is a high degree of flexibility.

此外，正如你們大多數人所知，它具有高度的靈活性。

So when you think about the portfolio and the ability to ramp up and ramp down, which can be difficult in other parts of the Upstream business, that's one of the elements that Shale brings to the party that other parts of the Upstream business doesn't.

因此，當您考慮投資組合以及增加和減少的能力時，這在上游業務的其他部分可能很困難，這是 Shale 為派對帶來的元素之一，而上游業務的其他部分則沒有.

And then finally, there's the integration opportunity, particularly in North America, that we have and that is a source of potential of further value creation, either connecting to our Downstream business or through our trading by optimization activities as well as from a risk management perspective and that's served us well over the last couple of years.

最後，我們擁有整合機會，尤其是在北美，這是進一步創造價值的潛力來源，無論是連接到我們的下游業務，還是通過我們通過優化活動進行的交易，以及從風險管理的角度來看在過去的幾年裡，這對我們很有幫助。

I think there's a number of reasons to believe it is a difficult moment in the cycle.

我認為有很多理由相信這是周期中的困難時刻。

But the fundamentals, if you run the business well, are worth it.

但是，如果您經營得好，基本面是值得的。

Certainly, we'll hear from Lydia Rainforth with Barclays.

當然，我們會收到來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth 的消息。

Two questions again.

又是兩個問題。

The first one, when we're talking about the idea of fundamentally restructuring and simplifying Shell, is that what you need to do to get to that $3 billion to $4 billion of operating expense reduction by next year?

第一個，當我們談論從根本上重組和簡化殼牌的想法時，您需要做些什麼才能在明年之前減少 30 億至 40 億美元的運營費用？

Or is it (inaudible)?

或者是（聽不清）？

And secondly, there's something you talked about in the opening remarks about being clear, both on the customer and shareholder value.

其次，您在開場白中談到了關於客戶和股東價值的明確內容。

If I reflect on that, we have seen a lot of changes in the last 6 months, be it the move towards net 0, the dividend change, the lower oil and gas price assumptions, the Downstream impairments.

如果我反思這一點，我們在過去 6 個月中看到了很多變化，無論是向淨 0 的轉變、股息變化、較低的石油和天然氣價格假設，還是下游減值。

So there has been a lot of things that changed.

所以有很多事情發生了變化。

Has your thinking (inaudible) the strategy?

您的想法（聽不清）有策略嗎？

And where are we going from here?

我們從這裡去哪裡？

Thanks very much, Lydia.

非常感謝，莉迪亞。

You were on the line broke up a little bit, but I believe I got what it is that you said.

你在線上分手了一點，但我相信我明白你說的是什麼。

It's -- let me try to see whether I can get to your next question, which I thought was -- there's a lot of change as our strategy fundamentally changed.

這是 - 讓我試著看看我是否可以回答你的下一個問題，我認為是 - 隨著我們的戰略從根本上改變，有很多變化。

I'll say a few words about the fundamental change and the relation to cost.

我將就根本性變化和與成本的關係說幾句話。

And I'm sure that Jessica will have a few things to add there as well.

我相信傑西卡也會在那裡添加一些東西。

We discussed that also in great detail over the last few weeks and yesterday with the Board.

在過去幾周和昨天，我們還與董事會詳細討論了這個問題。

I think on the sort of the change that you mentioned, stronger customer centricity.

我認為關於你提到的那種變化，更強的以客戶為中心。

Indeed, we have come out with a sharpened ambition.

事實上，我們的雄心壯誌已經出來了。

We have better articulated what it means to be in line with Paris.

我們更好地闡明了與巴黎保持一致意味著什麼。

I think these are natural progressions from strategy that we probably entered into years ago, when we said we want to be part of the energy system of the future.

我認為這些是我們多年前製定的戰略的自然進展，當時我們說我們想成為未來能源系統的一部分。

And that means that we have to change the product portfolio, probably has to mean that we have to have a slightly different investment mix.

這意味著我們必須改變產品組合，可能意味著我們必須有一個稍微不同的投資組合。

And progressively, we have found out that we have to actually work from the customer back, particularly if you want to have a focus on reducing Scope 3 emissions and finding the business models of the future that will do so.

逐漸地，我們發現我們必須真正從客戶的角度出發，特別是如果你想專注於減少範圍 3 排放並找到未來的商業模式。

So I wouldn't say that things that you've heard in that space are somehow radical rethink.

所以我不會說你在那個領域聽到的東西在某種程度上是激進的反思。

They are progressive insight that is founded by the idea that if you want to thrive in the energy transition, if you want to be around in another 100 years' time, we need to evolve as we have evolved over the last 100.

它們是進步的洞察力，建立在這樣的想法之上：如果你想在能源轉型中茁壯成長，如果你想在下一個 100 年的時間裡存在，我們就需要像過去 100 年的發展一樣發展。

Now indeed, it's tempting to think that, that then is sort of logically connected to the dividend and other things that we have done, maybe even the impairment, et cetera, but it isn't.

現在確實很容易想到，那在邏輯上與股息和我們所做的其他事情有關，甚至可能與減值等有關，但事實並非如此。

The reduction in dividend and the reset that we had to do was the result of a macroeconomic shock that gave us the risk of reducing our financial resilience we have to countermeasure, not only with cost and CapEx measures, but unfortunately, also with shareholder distributions.

股息的減少和我們必須做的重置是宏觀經濟衝擊的結果，它給我們帶來了降低財務彈性的風險，我們必須採取應對措施，不僅是成本和資本支出措施，而且不幸的是，還有股東分配。

So there is no correlation between one and the other.

所以兩者之間沒有相關性。

We could have done one and the other at the same time in a normal macro environment as well.

我們也可以在正常的宏觀環境中同時完成一個和另一個。

I think that's quite important to note.

我認為這一點非常重要。

And the same is true for the impairments.

減值也是如此。

The impairments are a -- if I put it as a gross of a simplification, but nevertheless, a bit a core of truth in it, it's an accounting event.

減值是——如果我把它看作是一種粗略的簡化，但儘管如此，它還是一個真實的核心，這是一個會計事件。

If you look at the fundamental change in the company, well, yes.

如果你看看公司的根本變化，嗯，是的。

So we are, as we said, a bit progressive insight, understanding what we need to do different in order to position the company successfully for the future on the energy transition and other things that are happening.

因此，正如我們所說，我們有點進步的洞察力，了解我們需要做些什麼不同才能使公司在未來能源轉型和其他正在發生的事情上成功定位。

But at the same time, we're also learning how to cope with the pandemic, anticipating what would come next from it and also learning out of necessities sometimes, how different ways of working can actually be quite beneficial.

但與此同時，我們也在學習如何應對這一流行病，預測接下來會發生什麼，有時也會從必需品中學習不同的工作方式實際上是多麼有益。

So if you just don't want to suffer the pandemic and see how you work your way through it, but if you want to see it as an opportunity for renewal, you think through, what am I going to do differently at the end of this?

因此，如果您只是不想遭受大流行並看看自己如何度過難關，但如果您想將其視為重生的機會，請仔細考慮一下，在疫情結束時我將採取哪些不同的做法這？

And there is actually quite a few things that we can do different and actually then require us to rethink.

實際上，我們可以做很多不同的事情，實際上需要我們重新思考。

It's not just going to be trimming at the edges.

它不僅僅是在邊緣進行修剪。

That's all work from home a day, a week.

這就是一天、一周在家工作的全部內容。

It's completely rethinking how we are going to run this company in a different way and how we're going to have maybe different ways of oversight, different portfolio as a result of it.

它正在完全重新思考我們將如何以不同的方式經營這家公司，以及我們將如何擁有可能不同的監督方式、不同的投資組合。

And that's what I mean.

這就是我的意思。

Now to what extent do we need to do all of this to deliver on the original commitment, let me hand over to Jessica.

現在，我們需要在多大程度上完成所有這些工作才能兌現最初的承諾，讓我交給 Jessica。

Lydia, thank you for the question.

莉迪亞，謝謝你的提問。

I was going to start with the strategy, but I'll start instead with the cost piece.

我打算從戰略開始，但我將從成本部分開始。

When we set out the target for the market in the first quarter to reduce our OpEx by some $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of Q1 2021 relative to 2019, that was before we initiated this larger look at our organization and how do we ensure we're designed and organizing our resources to deliver on our strategy going forward.

當我們在第一季度為市場設定目標，到 2021 年第一季度末相對於 2019 年將我們的運營支出減少約 30 億美元至 40 億美元時，那是在我們開始更廣泛地審視我們的組織之前，我們如何確保我們正在設計和組織我們的資源，以實現我們未來的戰略。

That was looking at what are the measures that we can take in the next 12 months to reduce our costs.

那是在研究我們在未來 12 個月內可以採取哪些措施來降低成本。

And you see that happening already today.

你看到今天已經發生了。

So our costs in the second quarter were down by some $1 billion relative to Q1 and, importantly, on an underlying basis, down some $2 billion from Q2 2019.

因此，與第一季度相比，我們第二季度的成本下降了約 10 億美元，重要的是，在基礎上，比 2019 年第二季度下降了約 20 億美元。

So these are the immediate measures we've put in place.

所以這些是我們已經採取的直接措施。

There's things like reducing travel costs, there's the stopping of the bonus for this year, which is about $1 billion and reducing activity, repacing growth spend, et cetera.

諸如減少差旅成本、停止發放今年約 10 億美元的獎金、減少活動、重新調整增長支出等。

And I have a lot of confidence that we'll achieve that reduction over the next 12 months.

我非常有信心我們將在未來 12 個月內實現這一目標。

But not all of those reductions are sustainable, and they are short term -- a number of them are short-term measures.

但並非所有這些削減都是可持續的，而且都是短期的——其中一些是短期措施。

This is where the reshape program that we're doing looks to then sustainably change the way we work to ensure we're designed to support delivery of our strategy and ultimately be a simpler company and have lower costs.

這就是我們正在進行的重塑計劃的目標，然後可持續地改變我們的工作方式，以確保我們的設計能夠支持戰略的實施，並最終成為一家更簡單、成本更低的公司。

But that will be really felt kind of 2021, 2022 as those changes are put in place.

但是，隨著這些變化的實施，到 2021 年、2022 年才會真正感受到這種感覺。

So there are different numbers and kind of different activity levels that are driving those outcomes, probably comparable numbers (inaudible) impact.

因此，有不同數量和類型的不同活動水平正在推動這些結果，可能是可比較的數字（聽不清）影響。

But the first one is really kind of the short-term measures.

但第一個確實是短期措施。

Well, the restructuring program or the resizing program, that is more about how do we sustainably change the way we work, both in terms of delivering our strategy, but also to be more simpler and lower cost going forward.

好吧，重組計劃或規模調整計劃，更多的是關於我們如何可持續地改變我們的工作方式，無論是在實現我們的戰略方面，還是在未來更簡單、成本更低的方面。

On the strategy one that Ben has more than well covered very well, I just want to -- I would characterize it as, as Ben said, progressive insights, that is kind of an evolution of the strategy.

關於 Ben 已經很好地涵蓋的戰略，我只想 - 正如 Ben 所說，我將其描述為漸進式洞察力，這是戰略的一種演變。

I think the important point for me is that it's increased pace and increased intensity.

我認為對我來說重要的一點是它增加了速度和強度。

It's not that they're new ideas or new concept.

這並不是說它們是新想法或新概念。

A lot of this has been embedded in our thinking when we had the strategic pillar of driving to the energy transition.

當我們擁有推動能源轉型的戰略支柱時，我們的想法中就有很多這樣的想法。

We believe that the appetite and the opportunity is accelerating.

我們相信胃口和機會正在加速。

And it's with that in mind that we're looking to move probably more quickly and more intensely than perhaps 12 or 24 months ago.

考慮到這一點，我們正在尋求可能比 12 或 24 個月前更快、更強烈地採取行動。

We'll hear from Jon Rigby with UBS.

我們將聽到 Jon Rigby 和瑞銀的消息。

A question or 2, please.

請問一個或兩個問題。

First, on the impairments, you've alluded a couple of times to accounting issues.

首先，關於減值，您已經多次提到會計問題。

You also then talked about the benefits of locking together some of the Shell activities, the BG activities in LNG.

然後，您還談到了將一些殼牌活動、液化天然氣中的 BG 活動鎖定在一起的好處。

You obviously reported a huge trading benefit and talked about the recurring nature of the optimization around assets and so on.

您顯然報告了巨大的交易收益，並談到了圍繞資產等進行優化的重複性。

And my question really is, is there a genuine -- particularly in the Downstream and Integrated Gas, is there a genuine impairment in value that you're signaling with this Q2 impairment charge?

我的問題真的是，是否有真正的 - 特別是在下游和綜合天然氣中，是否存在真正的價值減值，你用這個第二季度減值費用發出信號？

And when you considered and looked at this, was there an option to sort of think about the sort of consolidated activities of the business rather than the way that the legacy and assets had originally been constituted because it seems to me is there's been a lot of repurposing over the last few years?

當你考慮並審視這一點時，是否可以選擇考慮企業的綜合活動類型，而不是遺產和資產最初的構成方式，因為在我看來，有很多在過去幾年重新利用？

That's first question.

這是第一個問題。

And the second one is, I noticed that you took about a $5 billion charge through equity for the pension fund.

第二個是，我注意到你通過股權為養老基金收取了大約 50 億美元的費用。

And the pension fund, there's an obligation, I think, of about $95 billion at the end of the year of 2019.

我認為，到 2019 年底，養老基金有大約 950 億美元的義務。

So not much short of your market capitalization.

因此，與您的市值相差不遠。

And that's a big swing.

這是一個很大的轉變。

So I just wondered whether, a, is there a way of managing that going forward?

所以我只是想知道，a，是否有辦法管理它向前發展？

Or is that an obligation that we're going to have to live with and some of the implications that come with that, which are often not good?

或者這是我們將不得不忍受的義務以及隨之而來的一些影響，這通常是不好的？

And the second is, is there a potential for increased cash out going forward to fund that pension obligation?

第二個是，未來是否有可能增加現金支出來為養老金義務提供資金？

Very good questions.

非常好的問題。

So Jon, let me make a beginning on the impairment point and then hand over to Jessica, who will undoubtedly add some to it and then can also cover with the pension fund adjustment.

所以喬恩，讓我先從減值點開始，然後交給傑西卡，她無疑會增加一些，然後也可以用養老基金調整來彌補。

So if I understand your question correctly, Jon, so how can you square the idea that we would impair assets, say, for instance, in Integrated Gas, where you've seen actually the largest impairment occur, when there is so much associated trading value, for instance, with that asset?

因此，如果我正確理解你的問題，喬恩，那麼你怎麼能提出我們會損害資產的想法，例如，在 Integrated Gas 中，當有如此多的關聯交易時，你實際上已經看到最大的損害發生例如，該資產的價值？

And is it indeed correct to take the impairment in the way that we have done.

以我們所做的方式進行減值是否確實正確。

That is a very good question, but we are absolutely bound by accounting convention, where we have to look at the cash-generating unit, which is often just very narrowly defined to the asset that sits on the books.

這是一個很好的問題，但我們絕對受會計慣例的約束，我們必須查看現金產生單位，這通常只是非常狹義地定義為賬面上的資產。

The intangible value that sits in our trading organization that adds a lot of extrinsic value to such an asset because it's part of a portfolio within which we can trade and optimize around that asset.

我們交易組織中的無形價值為此類資產增加了很多外在價值，因為它是我們可以圍繞該資產進行交易和優化的投資組合的一部分。

We can, from an earnings perspective, segment that income perhaps back to that asset that is not possible to use as a methodology when we go through the accounting process of impairing of value erosion review on assets.

從收益的角度來看，我們可以將該收入細分為可能在我們對資產進行價值侵蝕減值審查的會計流程時無法用作方法的資產。

That's narrow.

那很窄。

So that means that, indeed, in some cases, yes, we have to recognize that the asset was on the books with more value than it strictly speaking has on an intrinsic basis, but it doesn't necessarily mean that, that value has disappeared.

所以這意味著，確實，在某些情況下，是的，我們必須認識到，資產在賬面上的價值比嚴格意義上的內在價值要高，但這並不一定意味著，價值已經消失.

And we have that not only in our gas business, we also have that in other businesses, but the assets are part of a broader value creation network as value creation extrinsic to the asset cannot be taken into account when looking at the valuation of that asset on.

我們不僅在我們的天然氣業務中擁有這一點，我們在其他業務中也擁有這一點，但資產是更廣泛的價值創造網絡的一部分，因為在查看該資產的估值時，無法考慮資產以外的價值創造在。

Let's see whether I have that sufficiently correct for Jessica to add something to it.

讓我們看看我是否有足夠的正確性讓傑西卡添加一些東西。

And then maybe if you can also talk to the pension fund question, Jessica.

然後也許你也可以談談養老基金問題，傑西卡。

Sure.

當然。

Jon, thank you for the questions.

喬恩，謝謝你的提問。

And I think Ben covered it well.

我認為 Ben 講得很好。

We engaged deeply on this with our internal accountants and our auditors as well because some of the answers that are right from an accounting perspective are not intuitive from a business perspective for the reasons that you've mentioned, Jon, and Ben has as well.

我們還與我們的內部會計師和審計師就此進行了深入探討，因為出於您提到的原因，從會計角度來看，一些正確的答案從業務角度來看並不直觀，喬恩和本也提到了這一點。

So we're doing this technically correct.

所以我們這樣做在技術上是正確的。

But does that mean that the impairment reflects the true kind of economic value of that asset in the value chain?

但這是否意味著減值反映了該資產在價值鏈中的真實經濟價值？

In many cases, it doesn't.

在許多情況下，事實並非如此。

And so there are many instances in assets that were impaired this quarter, where they provide tremendous value to our Integrated Gas business, to our Downstream business, and as I mentioned in my speech, where we see some of these assets to be very strategic for us in the future.

因此，本季度有許多資產受損的例子，它們為我們的綜合天然氣業務、我們的下游業務提供了巨大的價值，正如我在演講中提到的，我們認為其中一些資產對我們來說非常具有戰略意義未來的我們。

But that is -- we're doing things right from an accounting perspective, but it may not make intuitive business sense.

但那是——我們從會計的角度做事是正確的，但它可能沒有直觀的商業意義。

That being said, there are some assets that -- where there is value, some of the exploration assets that we're not going to pursue.

話雖如此，有些資產——在有價值的地方，我們不會追求一些勘探資產。

But I'd say, a significant number of the larger assets that were impacted are ones that we see significant strategic and economic value going forward.

但我要說的是，受影響的大量較大資產是我們認為未來具有重大戰略和經濟價值的資產。

Pension fund.

養老保險基金。

It's a really important question and good to raise and acknowledge that is a large number from a liability perspective.

從責任的角度來看，這是一個非常重要的問題，提出並承認這是一個很大的問題是很好的。

We also have significant assets against those liabilities.

我們還擁有針對這些負債的重要資產。

And what you're seeing is kind of the net of those 2 things.

你所看到的是這兩件事的網絡。

The impact on that balance does change, driven by the interest rate environment.

在利率環境的推動下，對這種平衡的影響確實發生了變化。

That's been the single largest driver of change in the last couple of years.

這是過去幾年中最大的變革驅動力。

Sometimes that has gone in our favor.

有時這對我們有利。

So last quarter, we had opposite effect of a comparable amount as interest rates increased.

因此，上個季度，隨著利率上升，我們產生了可比數量的相反效果。

So that is a reflection of the interest rate environment.

所以這反映了利率環境。

I don't think there's much we can do.

我認為我們無能為力。

That's simply the accounting and the reporting.

這只是會計和報告。

And if you look over the last couple of years, it's been pluses and minuses going both directions.

如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現它是有利有弊的。

You also have movements on the asset side as well.

您在資產方面也有變動。

And so as the equity markets recover, the asset values also increase.

因此，隨著股市復蘇，資產價值也會增加。

And so what you're seeing is the net of all of those effects coming through.

所以你看到的是所有這些影響的網絡。

That's on the reporting side.

那是在報告方面。

That's different from the funding side.

這與資金方面不同。

Funding is handled very, very differently, and it's given -- it's driven by the requirements of each of the pension plans in the countries where we operate.

資金的處理方式非常非常不同，而且它是給定的——它是由我們經營所在國家/地區的每個養老金計劃的要求驅動的。

There is the potential for us to have additional funding requirements.

我們有可能有額外的資金需求。

To some extent, that's always the case.

在某種程度上，情況總是如此。

We manage this very carefully as a group.

我們作為一個團隊非常謹慎地管理它。

We -- and I believe we're in a very solid funding position.

我們——而且我相信我們的資金狀況非常穩固。

But depending on what happens with interest rates, what happens with the equity markets, additional funding can be required and that's part of what we planned for and resiliency of the company and the cash flows going forward.

但是，根據利率的變化，股票市場的變化，可能需要額外的資金，這是我們計劃的一部分，也是公司的彈性和未來現金流量的一部分。

So it depends on what happens, as I said, in the interest rate environment and the equity markets, in particular, but that's well-considered in all of our plans going forward.

因此，正如我所說，這取決於在利率環境和股票市場中發生的情況，尤其是在我們所有未來計劃中都考慮到了這一點。

We'll hear from Christyan Malek with Morgan Stanley.

我們將聽取摩根士丹利的 Christyan Malek 的意見。

Yes.

是的。

It's Christyan Malek with JPMorgan.

我是摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

First, the outlook for demand.

一是需求前景。

Shell prides itself on being integrated in most end markets yet this crisis is sort of seeing the entire energy complex contracts in unprecedented way.

殼牌以融入大多數終端市場而自豪，但這場危機有點以前所未有的方式看待整個能源綜合體合同。

What green shoots are you seeing, if any, in the outlook for crude demand when compared to your views a quarter ago?

與您一個季度前的看法相比，您認為原油需求前景有哪些新芽（如果有的話）？

Has anything, I guess, changed the better or worse?

我猜，有什麼事情變好或變壞了嗎？

And I guess, secondly, in allied to that.

我想，其次，與此相關。

I wanted to ask you more about the portfolio reshaping as far as being fit in the future vis-à-vis your volatility and not the least, energy transition?

我想問你更多關於投資組合重塑的問題，以適應未來的波動性，尤其是能源轉型？

But February next year does seem quite a long time away, and I'm not sure I can take away from this call the major changes on the horizon or not, especially in what you would consider core versus noncore.

但明年 2 月似乎還有很長一段時間，而且我不確定我能否從這次電話會議中剔除即將發生的重大變化，尤其是在你認為核心與非核心的變化方面。

Are you open to divestment?

你願意撤資嗎？

You mentioned deepwater LNG marketing quite a bit.

您多次提到深水液化天然氣營銷。

And would it be fair to say that you may need a more radical overall in the business?

並且可以公平地說您可能需要更激進的業務整體嗎？

And what I'm trying to get to is, can you at least provide a basic framework into helping us model Shell Version 2.0, the backdrop being that one could argue the financial frame as it stands, either need the major cash injection or higher all-in order to deliver the investment needed to materially scale up new energies?

我想說的是，您能否至少提供一個基本框架來幫助我們對 Shell 2.0 版進行建模，背景是人們可能會爭論目前的財務框架，要么需要大量現金注入，要么需要更高的資金-為了提供實質性擴大新能源所需的投資？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Christyan.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。

I'm not entirely sure whether I got everything because there was a bit of a disturbance on the line as well for me.

我不完全確定我是否得到了所有東西，因為對我來說線路上也有一些干擾。

The demand outlook, it's, of course, a very important question.

需求前景，當然，這是一個非常重要的問題。

I'll talk to that a little bit.

我會談一點。

Jessica, you okay to do some of the portfolio reshaping?

傑西卡，你可以做一些投資組合重塑嗎？

It is, of course, very hard to predict exactly where demand will go going forward.

當然，很難準確預測需求的未來發展方向。

It -- in some sectors, we see the beginnings of a recovery.

它——在某些領域，我們看到了復甦的開始。

I mentioned earlier, the Chemical sector that is still a very significant driver for oil and gas demand as well.

我之前提到過，化工行業仍然是石油和天然氣需求的一個非常重要的驅動力。

But of course, for us, it's also a significant part of cash flow if it works well, and we see the beginnings of a recovery trajectory, we believe.

但當然，對我們來說，如果運作良好，它也是現金流的重要組成部分，我們相信，我們看到了復甦軌蹟的開始。

On the more conventional fuel side and, therefore, oil, I think it's very mixed.

在更傳統的燃料方面，因此，石油，我認為它非常複雜。

So in some sectors, we see actually quite good recovery.

因此，在某些行業，我們實際上看到了相當不錯的複蘇。

So take, for instance, motor gasoline and diesel, there's a fair degree of recovery, particularly in countries that are a bit further down the first wave.

因此，以車用汽油和柴油為例，有相當程度的複蘇，特別是在第一波浪潮中稍遠的國家。

We see actually, in some cases, a stronger demand than we saw before the pandemic.

實際上，在某些情況下，我們看到的需求比大流行之前更強勁。

That's not -- that we have, but it's in a few cases, absolutely true, partly because people tend to use public transport less and a more safe and secure in their own car for commuting.

這不是——我們有，但在少數情況下，這是絕對正確的，部分原因是人們傾向於減少使用公共交通工具，而更安全地乘坐自己的汽車上下班。

We see countries coming out of lockdown, of course, going into a bit of a fast recovery on personal mobility fuels.

當然，我們看到一些國家正在解除封鎖，在個人出行燃料方面進入快速復蘇階段。

And then there is a wide spread in this.

然後在這方面有廣泛的傳播。

So we see resilient demand in China, as I said, ahead of last year.

因此，正如我所說，我們在去年之前看到了中國的彈性需求。

The biggest growth we are actually seeing in Russia, that's 13% up.

我們實際上在俄羅斯看到的最大增長是 13%。

But the worst-performing market is India, 45% down.

但表現最差的市場是印度，下降了 45%。

So we are dealing with a very wide tapestry of market recovery archetypes.

因此，我們正在處理非常廣泛的市場復甦原型。

If you look at lubricants, we see also quite a wide range of performance.

如果您查看潤滑劑，我們還會看到相當廣泛的性能。

So Europe down very considerably, but now recovering back to 90% of what it was.

所以歐洲大幅下降，但現在恢復到原來的 90%。

But then in other places like China, for instance, we are seeing 15% more lubricants' demand in the second quarter of this year than in the second quarter of last year.

但在其他地方，例如中國，我們看到今年第二季度的潤滑油需求比去年第二季度增加了 15%。

So it is quite surprising to see the differentiated approach.

所以看到差異化的方法是相當令人驚訝的。

I probably don't have to tell you much about aviation, where we probably see a recovery back up to, well, probably 50% what it used to be by the end of this year.

關於航空業，我可能不需要告訴你太多，到今年年底，我們可能會看到復蘇回到過去的 50%。

So altogether, I do think that we will end this year not in a fully recovered market.

因此，總的來說，我確實認為我們將在今年年底結束，而不是在一個完全復甦的市場中。

And it may well take 2021, of course, to get back to where we were.

當然，很可能要到 2021 年才能回到原來的狀態。

What happens after that is, I think, much more difficult to predict.

之後發生的事情，我認為，更難以預測。

And everybody who can tell you certain things with certainty, I think you have to take with a great pinch of salt.

每個可以肯定地告訴你某些事情的人，我認為你必須多加一點鹽。

And of course, we don't know how this pandemic is going to work out.

當然，我們不知道這種流行病將如何解決。

I hope it will work out well.

我希望一切順利。

And I hope that any subsequent episodes are going to be limited to outbreaks rather than massively new waves, and I hope we will be able to deal with it a whole lot better.

我希望任何後續事件都將僅限於爆發，而不是大規模的新浪潮，我希望我們能夠更好地應對它。

But the uncertainty that hangs over the market is still, I think, very palpable, not only in demand, but I'm sure you've seen as well, pricing and everything.

但我認為，籠罩在市場上的不確定性仍然非常明顯，不僅在需求方面，而且我相信你也看到了，定價和一切。

So on gas, I'm a little bit more hopeful.

所以在汽油方面，我更有希望。

I think the gas markets will recover more strongly.

我認為天然氣市場將更強勁地複蘇。

Industrial demand will come back.

工業需求將會回升。

There is limited short-term alternatives for that.

短期的替代方案有限。

I think also if we see a resumption of normal economic activity, pace heating, power demand, et cetera, will all come back.

我還認為，如果我們看到正常的經濟活動恢復，供暖、電力需求等都會恢復。

But I think the chances are that a full recovery are -- is going to be probably more towards the end of next year.

但我認為全面復甦的可能性是——可能會在明年年底前出現。

Let me leave it at that.

讓我就此打住。

And Jessica, can you take care of Christyan's next question?

傑西卡，你能回答克里斯蒂安的下一個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Christyan, it was a little bit difficult to hear you.

克里斯蒂安，聽你說話有點困難。

So hopefully, I'm answering the right question.

所以希望我能回答正確的問題。

The main takeaway I had from your question was, do we have right portfolio as it fits for the future?

我從你的問題中得到的主要收穫是，我們是否擁有適合未來的正確投資組合？

So that's what I'm going to speak to and, hopefully, that touches on the elements that you wanted us to touch on.

這就是我要談的內容，希望能觸及您希望我們觸及的要素。

I'd start off with what I believe is a view that the quality of our portfolio today is evident in the very strong cash generation that you see in the quarter against a very difficult backdrop, difficult prices, difficult margins, difficult volume levels and yet the capacity to generate $6.5 billion.

我將從我認為的一種觀點開始，即我們今天的投資組合的質量在非常困難的背景、困難的價格、困難的利潤率、困難的交易量水平和困難的情況下你在本季度看到的非常強勁的現金產生中是顯而易見的產生 65 億美元的能力。

I was kind of expecting, Christyan, you might ask us about the breakeven price because usually -- and this would be a good quarter to have that conversation, given the cash generated.

我有點期待，克里斯蒂安，你可能會問我們關於盈虧平衡的價格，因為通常 - 鑑於產生的現金，這將是進行對話的好季度。

It was asked...

有人問...

Against this profile.

針對此配置文件。

So I -- in terms of the quality of the portfolio, I think the results, certainly from a cash generation, large extent, speaks for itself in terms of the quality of the assets that we have in IG and in our deepwater business and our marketing business, which continues to show a lot of resilience through a number of different macroeconomic backdrops.

所以我 - 就投資組合的質量而言，我認為結果，當然來自現金產生，在很大程度上說明了我們在 IG 和深水業務中擁有的資產質量以及我們的資產質量營銷業務，在許多不同的宏觀經濟背景下繼續顯示出很大的彈性。

That being said, we want to continue to improve, make more robust, more resilient, more competitive our portfolio, so we're never off that train.

話雖這麼說，我們希望繼續改進，使我們的產品組合更強大、更有彈性、更具競爭力，所以我們永遠不會下車。

On the refining side, we've been clear that we're going to reduce the number to some 15 to less than 10, and that is about having the assets that best align with our strategy and where we think we can competitively differentiate.

在精煉方面，我們已經明確表示，我們將把數量減少到 15 個左右，甚至少於 10 個，這就是擁有最符合我們戰略的資產，以及我們認為可以在競爭中脫穎而出的資產。

And with those assets to continue to retool them for a low-carbon energy future.

並利用這些資產繼續重組它們以實現低碳能源的未來。

That will be the work that we're doing in the portfolio over the coming years.

這將是我們在未來幾年在投資組合中所做的工作。

And then there's a piece of leaning into the energy transition.

然後是傾向於能源轉型。

So what are we going to do with our capital as the economy recovers?

那麼，隨著經濟復甦，我們將如何處理我們的資本？

It will recover at some point in time, and we will have surplus cash.

它會在某個時間點恢復，我們會有多餘的現金。

And when we have that surplus cash, we want to grow the company.

當我們有多餘的現金時，我們想發展公司。

Where are we going to look, and Ben talked about leaning into the energy transition.

我們要看哪裡，本談到了向能源轉型傾斜。

And just to make sure when we use those words, energy transition, that we're clear what that means.

只是為了確保當我們使用這些詞時，能量轉換，我們清楚這意味著什麼。

It's not just our Power business, it is our Chemicals business, it's our retail business, it's our lubricants business as well as power, hydrogen, biofuels.

這不僅僅是我們的電力業務，還有我們的化學品業務、我們的零售業務、我們的潤滑油業務以及電力、氫氣和生物燃料。

This is the future of the energy system.

這就是能源系統的未來。

This is where we believe we can meet and where we're going to be building out these businesses.

這是我們相信我們可以會面的地方，也是我們將要建立這些業務的地方。

And there are different degrees of maturity.

並且有不同程度的成熟度。

Obviously, the Chemicals business, retail business, lubricants business, those are all much more mature businesses.

顯然，化學品業務、零售業務、潤滑油業務，這些都是成熟得多的業務。

And so your ability to invest more and see the returns and have confidence in that capital program is greater.

因此，您有能力進行更多投資並看到回報，並對資本計劃更有信心。

Our hydrogen, biofuels, those are continuing to be maturing businesses and business models, so we're going to invest in those, but we're going to be prudent and make sure that we have confidence in the business model and the return profile.

我們的氫、生物燃料，這些業務和商業模式正在不斷成熟，因此我們將投資於這些，但我們將謹慎行事，並確保我們對商業模式和回報狀況有信心。

We'll take some risk, but we want to take prudent risk as we build out these new businesses and business models of the future.

我們會冒一些風險，但我們希望在構建這些未來的新業務和業務模型時謹慎承擔風險。

We'll move to Henry Tarr with Berenberg.

我們將和 Berenberg 搬到 Henry Tarr。

So 2 quick ones, hopefully.

所以 2 個快速的，希望如此。

Firstly, have you started marketing any of the refineries already?

首先，您是否已經開始營銷任何煉油廠？

And is there any interest in those assets in what looks like a relatively challenged space longer term?

從長遠來看，這些資產看起來像是一個相對具有挑戰性的空間，是否有興趣？

And then secondly, at this point, balance sheet permitting, do you have any appetite for M&A with distressed assets available in certain sections, particularly, looking at the U.S. where you suggest that Shale remains a core part of the business?

其次，在這一點上，在資產負債表允許的情況下，您是否有興趣對某些部分的不良資產進行併購，特別是看看美國，您認為頁岩仍然是業務的核心部分？

Thanks very much, Henry, and 2 very relevant questions.

非常感謝，亨利，還有 2 個非常相關的問題。

So yes, we are marketing our refineries at the moment.

所以是的，我們目前正在營銷我們的煉油廠。

We have 5 active, and they are actually in active discussions.

我們有 5 個活躍的，他們實際上正在積極討論。

So this is not like we've put out some information package.

所以這不像是我們發布了一些信息包。

We are actually in discussions, and they are at various stages of (inaudible).

我們實際上正在討論，他們處於（聽不清）的不同階段。

Selling refineries is not a very trivial process.

出售煉油廠不是一個非常微不足道的過程。

There's, of course, all sorts of, you can imagine, long-term liability issues and other things that have to be taken care of as well.

當然，您可以想像，還有各種各樣的長期責任問題和其他必須注意的事情。

But we started, when I worked in that business in 2004 with 55 refineries, now down to 15.

但是我們開始了，當我在 2004 年從事該業務時，有 55 家煉油廠，現在減少到 15 家。

So we know how to also not only run them, but also to get rid of them.

所以我們不僅知道如何運行它們，還知道如何擺脫它們。

And that's what we will be doing.

這就是我們將要做的。

On the M&A front, of course, we always have to look at opportunities in the market that you would expect us to do so.

當然，在併購方面，我們總是要尋找市場上您希望我們這樣做的機會。

And of course, there could well be opportunities available.

當然，很可能會有機會。

But we've also, I think, been very clear about what our priorities for cash are.

但我認為，我們也非常清楚我們的現金優先事項是什麼。

So you can rely on the things that we have set when it comes to allocation of capital between the different priorities that we have.

因此，在我們擁有的不同優先事項之間分配資本時，您可以依賴我們設定的內容。

And we have to live within the frameworks that we have set out.

我們必須生活在我們設定的框架內。

Does that mean that we can do small-sized acquisitions that fit within the framework?

是不是意味著我們可以在框架內進行小規模的收購？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

And that's why we are indeed looking, but we have to obey the constraints that we have set to ourselves, if we want to continue to market ourselves as a disciplined allocator of capital and one that preserves the financial resilience of the

這就是為什麼我們確實在尋找，但如果我們想繼續將自己推銷為一個有紀律的資本分配者，並保持金融彈性，我們就必須遵守我們為自己設定的限制。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We'll move to Jason with Jefferies.

我們將和 Jefferies 搬到 Jason 那裡。

Ben, in your prepared comments, you mentioned that in a more stable environment, you would allocate capital to deleveraging, increasing growth CapEx and increasing shareholder returns.

本，在你準備好的評論中，你提到在一個更穩定的環境中，你會分配資本去槓桿化，增加增長資本支出和增加股東回報。

But I guess the question I have is, what's the priority there?

但我想我的問題是，那裡的優先級是什麼？

Because you have talked several times about needing to step up capital spending for growth, and you've also talked about getting the leverage ratio back down into the guidance range.

因為你多次談到需要加大資本支出以實現增長，你也談到要將槓桿率降到指導範圍內。

The second question that I had is, I thought it was quite interesting you made a comment about evolving some refineries into low carbon chains.

我的第二個問題是，我認為您對將一些煉油廠發展為低碳鏈的評論非常有趣。

And I was hoping that you might expand a little bit on what you meant there.

我希望你能稍微擴展一下你在那裡的意思。

Is that converting into biodiesel refinery?

那是在轉變為生物柴油精煉廠嗎？

Is that further integrating into petrochemicals?

是不是進一步融入石化？

Just anything you can add there would be helpful and maybe even your outlook for the biodiesel market.

您可以添加的任何內容都會有所幫助，甚至可能對您對生物柴油市場的前景有所幫助。

Okay.

好的。

Great question, Jason.

好問題，傑森。

I'll take the second one, Jessica the first.

我選第二個，傑西卡選第一個。

Yes.

是的。

So what we -- what I think is reasonably clear, I hope, from our outlook is.

因此，我希望從我們的觀點來看，我認為相當清楚的是。

We believe the future of refining tech or pure refining is going to be challenged.

我們相信煉油技術或純煉油的未來將受到挑戰。

Doesn't mean you can't make money in it?

不是說你賺不到錢嗎？

But you have to have a sophisticated position in it, but that means refineries with high complexity, very well placed, deeply connected into well-operating trading networks, so we can do all the tricks that I referred to earlier on in this call, but also, of course, more deeply integrated with other parts of the business.

但是你必須在其中擁有一個複雜的位置，但這意味著煉油廠具有高度複雜性，位置非常好，與運行良好的交易網絡緊密相連，因此我們可以使用我之前在本次電話會議中提到的所有技巧，但是當然，還可以更深入地與業務的其他部分集成。

Conventional way of doing it, of course, is petrochemicals.

當然，傳統的方法是石化產品。

But there's other ways you can do this.

但是還有其他方法可以做到這一點。

We can think indeed of bio components.

我們確實可以考慮生物成分。

We can think of also bringing green power, hydrogen and other ways of integrating to it.

我們也可以考慮將綠色能源、氫能等其他方式融入其中。

Now so what you will see us do over time is indeed high grading.

現在你會看到我們隨著時間的推移所做的確實是高等級。

That's sort of more broad manufacturing part of our overall asset portfolio to just that, very sophisticated, multipurpose energy parks, if you like, integrated with product facilities.

這是我們整體資產組合中更廣泛的製造部分，只是非常複雜的多用途能源園區，如果你願意的話，與產品設施相結合。

So what that means, in some cases, may well be reducing the straight-run fuels in a refinery, so rightsizing it down to a more fit-for-purpose output, but then repurposing some of the units to do other things with.

所以這意味著，在某些情況下，很可能會減少煉油廠的直餾燃料，因此將其精簡到更適合目的的輸出，然後重新利用一些裝置來做其他事情。

So you can repurpose, say, for instance, hydrocracking units to be a feedstock provider for extremely high-quality base oils for lubricants.

因此，您可以重新調整用途，例如，將加氫裂化裝置轉變為優質潤滑油基礎油的原料供應商。

And then you're tapping into a completely different market.

然後您將進入一個完全不同的市場。

You can indeed integrate some of the biofuel technologies in units that then make more money than to just do, say, hydro processing.

你確實可以將一些生物燃料技術整合到單元中，然後比僅僅進行水力處理賺更多的錢。

Or you can bring a deeper integration formula with petrochemicals in areas where that is possible.

或者，您可以在可能的領域引入更深層次的石化產品整合方案。

And so what you will see us do is just that.

所以你會看到我們所做的就是這樣。

So it's probably going to be a combination of shrinking the fuel make, repurposing units in such a refinery to other types of processing capabilities and in the process, producing higher-quality products or products that are less susceptible to the pressures that we are seeing at the moment.

因此，它可能會結合減少燃料產量、將此類煉油廠中的設備重新用於其他類型的加工能力，並在此過程中生產更高質量的產品或不易受我們所看到的壓力影響的產品此時此刻。

Very simple and conventional ways.

非常簡單和常規的方法。

If I just bring it to life with one more example is to say, for instance, why would I want to upgrade the bottom of the barrel to sort of middle distillate, if I can also turn it into bitumen?

如果我再舉一個例子來說明，例如，如果我也可以將其轉化為瀝青，為什麼我要將桶底升級為某種中間餾分油？

And that may not sound like a very sexy proposition, but I can tell you, if you are the most sophisticated bitumen marketer in the world, which we also are, it can actually be an incredibly profitable proposition.

這聽起來可能不是一個非常性感的提議，但我可以告訴你，如果你是世界上最老練的瀝青營銷商，我們也是，它實際上可以是一個非常有利可圖的提議。

So it is tricks like this that you will see us do over the coming quarters.

因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，您將看到我們使用這樣的技巧。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Thank you, Jason, for the question on our capital allocation and how are we going to prioritize cash as we return to a stable environment, hopefully sooner rather than later.

傑森，謝謝你提出關於我們的資本配置的問題，以及我們將如何在我們恢復穩定的環境時優先考慮現金，希望越早越好。

We've tried to be very clear about our cash priorities.

我們試圖非常清楚我們的現金優先事項。

We've spoken to them in the same way for the last 3 years.

在過去的 3 年裡，我們一直以同樣的方式與他們交談。

And I want to be very clear that paying of our interest, our dividend and, importantly, ensuring that sufficient CapEx to maintain our assets and doing that all within a AA frame is a top priority for us.

我想非常清楚地表明，支付我們的利息、股息，以及重要的是，確保有足夠的資本支出來維持我們的資產，並在 AA 框架內完成這一切，是我們的首要任務。

And so the resilience of our balance sheet and acting prudently at this moment in time is absolutely front of mind and what drove the decisions that we've been making over the last 6 months and, in particular, the dividend decision.

因此，我們資產負債表的彈性和此時此刻的謹慎行事絕對是首要考慮因素，也是推動我們在過去 6 個月內做出的決定，尤其是股息決定的原因。

When the world returns to a more stable place and prices and margins recover and our cash flow recovers in that environment, we're looking to get to comfortably within AA range.

當世界回到一個更穩定的地方並且價格和利潤率回升並且我們的現金流在那種環境下恢復時，我們希望能夠輕鬆地進入 AA 範圍內。

We don't have to be at the bottom of our targets.

我們不必處於目標的底部。

We don't have to necessarily be in the middle of the target, but we want to be comfortably within it and have confidence in the outlook.

我們不一定要處於目標的中間，但我們希望舒適地處於目標之中並對前景充滿信心。

Once we're in that position, we are going to look at continuing to grow the company, so CapEx.

一旦我們處於那個位置，我們將考慮繼續發展公司，所以資本支出。

We've put a lot of things on hold.

我們擱置了很多事情。

And of course, everything hangs off of investing in the company and creating more value and generating cash that we're able to fund even greater shareholder distributions and work further growth going forward.

當然，一切都取決於投資公司、創造更多價值和產生現金，我們能夠為更大的股東分配提供資金，並推動未來的進一步增長。

So the investment in the company and investing in future cash flow growth is important.

因此，對公司的投資和對未來現金流增長的投資很重要。

It's also very important that we have a compelling investment proposition for our shareholders.

同樣非常重要的是，我們為股東提供了令人信服的投資建議。

And increasing returns for our shareholders is also front of mind.

為我們的股東增加回報也是首要考慮的問題。

We want to be #1 from a total shareholder return perspective, and that's only going to happen if we increase dividends or do buybacks and/or through share price appreciation.

從股東總回報的角度來看，我們希望成為第一名，而這只有在我們增加股息或進行回購和/或通過股價升值的情況下才會發生。

And I hope that all 3 of those things are featured in our very near future.

我希望所有這 3 件事都在我們不久的將來成為特色。

So ensuring that we've got the right return profile for our shareholders is absolutely front in mind.

因此，確保我們為股東獲得正確的回報率絕對是首要任務。

But we've got to keep all of these things in balance.

但我們必須保持所有這些事情的平衡。

Right now, the priority, given the circumstances that we're in and the outlook and the uncertainty around the outlook, focusing on the balance sheet, I believe, is absolutely the right thing to do.

現在，考慮到我們所處的環境以及前景和前景的不確定性，我認為優先關注資產負債表絕對是正確的做法。

At one point in time, we'll be out of this moment.

在某個時間點，我們將脫離這一刻。

We'll have a strong balance sheet.

我們將擁有強大的資產負債表。

We'll get comfortably in the AA metrics.

我們將輕鬆獲得 AA 指標。

We'll be looking to invest in the future of this company and creating value and, importantly, ensuring that we've got a competitive and leading turn profile for our shareholders.

我們將尋求投資於這家公司的未來並創造價值，重要的是，確保我們為股東提供具有競爭力和領先的轉折形象。

I see there's a few more questions.

我看到還有幾個問題。

So I know we are over time, but I want to make sure we do justice to all of you.

所以我知道我們已經超時了，但我想確保我們公平對待你們所有人。

So we're going to continue until the questions are done.

所以我們將繼續，直到問題完成。

Martijn Rats with Morgan Stanley.

Martijn Rats 與摩根士丹利。

Yes.

是的。

Martijn, not of JPMorgan.

Martijn，不是摩根大通的。

I'll keep it to one just because it's a long call already.

我會保留一個，因為它已經是一個長電話了。

Ben, you were recently quoted in a Dutch newspaper, talking about moving the headquarters to the U.K., and I briefly wanted to take you up sort of on that comment.

Ben，一家荷蘭報紙最近引用了你的言論，談到將總部遷往英國，我想簡單地談談你的看法。

It seemed a little out of context, but I wanted to sort of make sure I raise it and not specifically at that point, but actually the broader sort of issue of the vacation of the shares.

這似乎有點斷章取義，但我想確定我提出了它，而不是具體在那個時候提出，但實際上是更廣泛的股票休假問題。

How do you think about that?

你怎麼看？

And also as part of that, what did you actually say about moving headquarters to the U.K.?

另外，作為其中的一部分，您實際上對將總部遷往英國有何看法？

Thanks, Martijn.

謝謝，馬丁。

As both of you -- both you and I are Dutch speakers, I think you can actually read the interview in the Shell Dutch blog and see what exactly I said.

作為你們 - 你和我都是講荷蘭語的人，我認為你實際上可以閱讀 Shell Dutch 博客中的採訪，看看我到底說了什麼。

I hadn't quite expected it to be actually a headline on the front page, I must admit.

我沒料到它會成為頭版的標題，我必須承認。

But it was entirely correct and true what I said.

但我說的是完全正確和真實的。

So it's very clear, we are a unified company that is quite often insufficiently well understood.

所以很明顯，我們是一家統一的公司，但往往沒有得到足夠的了解。

We are 100% British plc, but we are headquartered in the Netherlands.

我們是 100% 的英國 plc，但我們的總部設在荷蘭。

That means that we are subject to the tax regime of the Netherlands.

這意味著我們受荷蘭的稅收制度約束。

That was a conscious choice we made at the time in 2005 when we did the unification.

這是我們在 2005 年進行統一時做出的有意識的選擇。

Consequence of all of that was that we had to live with a unified share, but with 2 classes, if you like, or a single class but 2 versions of it, the As and the Bs, one with withholding tax and the other without withholding tax on the dividend.

所有這一切的結果是我們不得不接受統一的份額，但有 2 個等級，如果你願意的話，或者一個等級但有 2 個版本，A 和 B，一個有預扣稅，另一個沒有預扣稅對股息徵稅。

The expectation at the time was that the dividend withholding tax in the Netherlands would disappear.

當時的預期是荷蘭的股息預扣稅將消失。

And at that point in time, we would indeed be able to simplify a dual share position as well.

到那個時候，我們確實也能夠簡化雙重股份頭寸。

That hasn't happened.

那沒有發生。

We've been in dialogue with the Dutch government for a long time on that.

我們已經就此與荷蘭政府進行了很長時間的對話。

We have looked at all sorts of alternatives.

我們已經研究了各種替代方案。

But so far, we have not been able to exactly resolve it.

但到目前為止，我們還沒有能夠準確地解決它。

Now is that an issue for us at this point in time?

現在這對我們來說是個問題嗎？

No, it's not.

不，這不對。

But it gives us certain limitations that we have to obey.

但它給了我們必須遵守的某些限制。

So for instance, when we did the BG acquisition, we had to get permission upfront from the Dutch fisk to issue B shares to be able to do the acquisition.

因此，例如，當我們進行 BG 收購時，我們必須事先獲得荷蘭 fisk 的許可才能發行 B 股才能進行收購。

We got the permission, obviously, but it is less than ideal.

顯然，我們獲得了許可，但這並不理想。

We can also not completely freely buy back any -- and issue any of the 2 shares.

我們也不能完全自由地回購任何 - 並發行任何 2 股。

We can well live within that limitation, but I'm concerned that some point in time, that limitation is actually going to be a real constraint for us.

我們可以很好地生活在這個限制內，但我擔心在某個時間點，這個限制實際上將成為我們的真正約束。

So we've been very clear that we need to resolve that over time.

所以我們一直非常清楚，我們需要隨著時間的推移解決這個問題。

We are very clear that it's not an issue for us at the moment.

我們非常清楚，目前這對我們來說不是問題。

And one of the solutions would indeed be to step out of the Dutch tax regime.

解決方案之一確實是走出荷蘭的稅收制度。

We have no plans of doing that.

我們沒有這樣做的計劃。

There is nothing in the making at this point in time, but it is indeed, you have to have an open mind on anything.

在這個時間點上沒有任何事情要做，但確實如此，你必須對任何事情都保持開放的心態。

That is just what good business people need to do, have an open mind.

這正是優秀的商人需要做的，要有開放的心態。

And that's exactly what I said.

這正是我所說的。

I think we have now a new impetus to dialogue with key people in the Netherlands on how our share structure issue gets resolved.

我認為我們現在有了新的動力與荷蘭的關鍵人物就如何解決我們的股權結構問題進行對話。

And I'm hopeful and confident that it will get resolved, but there is nothing specifically in the making at this point in time, much unlike it has been suggested in some Dutch newspaper.

我對它會得到解決充滿希望和信心，但目前還沒有什麼特別的事情要做，這與一些荷蘭報紙上的建議很不一樣。

We'll hear from Irene Himona with Societe Generale.

我們將聽取法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona 的意見。

One question from me as well, I guess, for Jessica.

我想我也有一個問題是問傑西卡的。

If we assume that the unprecedented volatility of the first half doesn't repeat, if we stay where we are, more or less in terms of pricing, can you say whether you're managing working capital so as to release cash in the second half of the year, please?

如果我們假設上半年的空前波動不會重演，如果我們在定價方面或多或少保持原樣，您能否說一下您是否正在管理營運資金以便在下半年釋放現金年度最佳，好嗎？

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

I think, Jessica, if you would take that one?

我想，傑西卡，如果你願意接受那個？

Yes.

是的。

So Irene, the working capital increase in this quarter was driven by the increase in price predominantly at about 2/3, and then 1/3 of it was associated with increase in volumes.

因此，艾琳，本季度營運資金的增加主要是由價格上漲推動的，價格上漲約 2/3，然後 1/3 與銷量增加有關。

And that, of course, is the basis of how we secure the trading upside that we saw in the quarter.

當然，這就是我們如何確保本季度看到的交易優勢的基礎。

So the most important driver, typically, of our working capital changes, particularly with respect to inventory, which tends to be what drives the working capital number each quarter, is really price driven.

因此，通常情況下，我們營運資金變化最重要的驅動因素，尤其是庫存方面，這往往是驅動每個季度營運資金數量的因素，實際上是價格驅動的。

So that's not so much a connection to the volatility.

所以這與波動性沒有太大關係。

Volatility is probably connected to the volumes, but I think that's really difficult to kind of call.

波動性可能與交易量有關，但我認為這真的很難判斷。

We -- that's part of the strength of our balance sheet is to use that to create value.

我們 - 這是我們資產負債表實力的一部分，就是利用它來創造價值。

So to the extent that we see value out there, then we're going to maintain those volumes.

因此，就我們看到的價值而言，我們將保持這些數量。

But if that's not the case, then potentially, you'd see a rundown in the inventory levels in the coming months.

但如果情況並非如此，那麼未來幾個月您可能會看到庫存水平下降。

Hopefully, that's helpful.

希望這會有所幫助。

Let me add one point to it.

讓我補充一點。

We manage working capital on a relatively intensive basis.

我們在相對密集的基礎上管理營運資金。

It is cash after all.

畢竟是現金。

And of course, while we can make good returns on working capital, as you have seen this quarter, it doesn't mean that it's on tap in the trading organization.

當然，正如您在本季度看到的那樣，雖然我們可以在營運資金上獲得良好的回報，但這並不意味著它在貿易組織中隨時可用。

So we have a very strict management framework with involvement from the treasury to make sure that we deploy working capital in a very disciplined way as well.

因此，我們有一個非常嚴格的管理框架，有財政部的參與，以確保我們也以非常有紀律的方式部署營運資金。

We'll move to Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

我們將請美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent 發言。

Two questions, please.

請教兩個問題。

And please call me impatient, but both of them are trying to look ahead to your capital markets update and your 2025 outlook.

請叫我不耐煩，但他們都在努力展望你們的資本市場更新和 2025 年展望。

Firstly, even if CapEx under a nonrecessionary environment steps up, currently, you're spending about 5% on emerging power.

首先，即使在非衰退環境下的資本支出增加，目前，你在新興電力上的支出約為 5%。

And I think it wasn't so long ago that I heard Martijn say, you wanted to become the largest electricity company in the world in the 2030.

我想就在不久之前，我聽到 Martijn 說，你想在 2030 年成為世界上最大的電力公司。

So would you agree that 5% of group CapEx is probably not the right level for the coming decade?

那麼您是否同意 5% 的集團資本支出可能不是未來十年的正確水平？

Just to see where the direction is going.

只是為了看方向。

I don't want to put any words in your mouth.

我不想在你嘴裡說任何話。

And secondly, you impaired assets down on a lower short-term price deck, but you still left the 60 brands real term.

其次，你在較低的短期價格平台上減損了資產，但你仍然保留了 60 個品牌的實際價值。

And can you comment whether that is also going to be the very oil price that you used in the past for your 2025 outlook or whether actually impairment tests are completely separate from your view of the next 5 years as you're updating that plan to February?

你能否評論一下，這是否也將是你過去用於 2025 年展望的油價，或者當你將該計劃更新到 2 月時，減值測試是否與你對未來 5 年的看法完全不同？ ？

Thanks very much, Christopher, and we understand that you are impatient.

非常感謝，克里斯托弗，我們知道你很不耐煩。

I'm sure you're not the only one on this.

我相信你不是唯一一個這樣做的人。

You're also absolutely right that, indeed, with the constrained and reduced impaired back capital program that we have this year, everything had to give a little bit.

你也完全正確，事實上，由於我們今年的減值後備資本計劃受到限制和減少，一切都必須付出一點。

And it -- and even though we may have been a little bit more prepared to still preserve a good de minimis investment program in Power, it definitely did not escape very, very close scrutiny as well.

而且它——即使我們可能已經做好了更多的準備，仍然可以在 Power 中保留一個良好的微量投資計劃，但它也絕對沒有逃過非常、非常密切的審查。

So with this diet, can we succeed in our ambitions through the decade?

那麼，通過這種飲食，我們能否在十年內實現我們的雄心壯志？

Well, I can safely say, no.

好吧，我可以肯定地說，不。

But then a decade is a long time.

但是十年是很長的時間。

And a lot of things will happen and have to happen for us to evolve to the company we want to be.

為了讓我們發展成為我們想要成為的公司，很多事情將會發生並且必鬚髮生。

If indeed, this environment would stay with us for the rest of the decade, well, I guess we would be living in a totally different world at the end of the decade as well.

如果確實如此，這種環境會在這十年的剩餘時間裡一直伴隨著我們，好吧，我想我們也會在這十年結束時生活在一個完全不同的世界中。

So I'm not at the point where I just say everything is permanently different, and it will only be like this going forward.

所以我不是說一切都永遠不同了，以後只會這樣。

Of course, there will be a recovery.

當然，會有恢復。

Of course, there will be more capital for us to play with.

當然，我們可以玩的資本會更多。

Of course, we will have again an abundance of choices to make.

當然，我們將再次面臨大量選擇。

We will not be on a very, very strict diet.

我們不會嚴格節食。

And indeed, we -- if you are talking about a decade here, Christopher, let me set it very clearly as a preface, in the next decade, there will also be inorganic opportunities available to us if we play our strategic guides very well.

事實上，如果你在這裡談論十年，克里斯托弗，讓我非常清楚地把它作為序言，在未來十年，如果我們很好地發揮我們的戰略指南，我們也會有無機機會。

So with that, I think you all have to wait indeed for the 11th of February before we can say a little bit more about it.

因此，我想你們都必須等到 2 月 11 日，我們才能多說一點。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Thank you, Chris, for the question on the impairments and the price lines.

克里斯，謝謝你提出關於減值和價格線的問題。

In terms of the decision or the choice made in terms of our outlook on prices in April, May this year, to be clear for the Upstream and IG business, that reflected a changed view in the outlook of prices, a reduction of some 15% to 20%, whereas in the Downstream business, it was around 30%.

就我們今年 4 月、5 月對價格前景做出的決定或選擇而言，上游和 IG 業務要明確，這反映了對價格前景的看法發生了變化，減少了約 15%到 20%，而在下游業務中，這一比例約為 30%。

So we did change our long-term outlook, in addition to kind of the short- to medium-term outlook out to 2022.

因此，除了 2022 年的中短期展望外，我們確實改變了我們的長期展望。

As part of the processes of -- we take a lot of input in terms of making the decisions of what is the right price line from an impairment perspective.

作為流程的一部分——我們在從減值角度決定什麼是正確的價格線方面進行了大量投入。

We compare that against peers, against consultants, against analysts, bank reports, et cetera.

我們將其與同行、顧問、分析師、銀行報告等進行比較。

In that comparison, we show up to be relatively conservative in the first few years and kind of middle of the pack to the lower part of the pack for the later years.

在那次比較中，我們在前幾年表現得相對保守，而在後來的幾年裡，我們表現得比較保守。

So just to get a sense of where we are in the range of informed opinions on the price line, this is an impairment line.

因此，為了了解我們在價格線上的知情意見範圍內的位置，這是一條減值線。

Basis of what we do our strategy on and basis of what we plan on isn't necessarily these numbers.

我們制定戰略的基礎和我們計劃的基礎不一定是這些數字。

Importantly, we're consistently looking at a range of outcomes because of the dynamic elements that we've been speaking to, not only of the short term, but of the long term as well.

重要的是，由於我們一直在談論的動態因素，我們一直在關註一系列結果，不僅是短期的，還有長期的。

But I think it's an indication of a view, and it's certainly important in terms of the balance sheet valuation, and you have to pick one number when you do the impairment line.

但我認為這表明了一種觀點，就資產負債表估值而言，這當然很重要，你在做減值線時必須選擇一個數字。

And we try and do that in a way that's informed and wise.

我們嘗試以一種明智且明智的方式來做到這一點。

And I think that these numbers represent that, but it's not necessarily the one view or the only view, particularly, when thinking from a strategic perspective and planning for the business.

我認為這些數字代表了這一點，但不一定是一種觀點或唯一觀點，特別是從戰略角度思考和規劃業務時。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

And I think actually, that brings us to the end of the call.

我認為實際上，這讓我們結束了電話會議。

We've gone over a bit.

我們已經過了一點。

And I apologize for that, but I hope you found it nevertheless valuable.

對此我深表歉意，但我希望你發現它仍然有價值。

Thank you very much for staying with us for this extra time.

非常感謝您與我們一起度過這段額外的時間。

Thank you very much for all your questions and, of course, for joining the call in the first place.

非常感謝您提出的所有問題，當然也感謝您首先加入電話會議。

If there's any further questions outstanding, our IR team will make sure that they get properly answered.

如果還有任何未解決的問題，我們的 IR 團隊將確保他們得到妥善回答。

Of course, we will have third quarter results as well.

當然，我們也會有第三季度的業績。

They are on the 29th of October.

他們在 10 月 29 日。

And we look forward to talking to you then.

我們期待屆時與您交談。

And then, of course, we have the Strategy Day, which we will do on the 11th of February 2021.

然後，當然，我們將在 2021 年 2 月 11 日舉辦戰略日。

And let me tell you, I look forward to seeing you then.

讓我告訴你，我期待著那時見到你。

And with that, I hope you will have a good rest of your day and, indeed, a good summer.

有了這些，我希望你今天能好好休息，而且確實是一個美好的夏天。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And that will conclude today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。