殼牌 (SHEL) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Royal Dutch Shell 2019 Q3 announcement.

歡迎閱讀荷蘭皇家殼牌 2019 年第三季度公告。

There will be a presentation followed by a Q&A session.

將有一個演示，然後是問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄製。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mrs.

我現在想把電話轉給夫人。

Jessica Uhl.

傑西卡·烏爾.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Shell's third quarter results call, and thank you for joining us today.

女士們先生們，歡迎參加殼牌第三季度業績電話會議，並感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we start, let me highlight the disclaimer statement.

在開始之前，讓我強調一下免責聲明。

In today's call, I will take you through Shell's performance and the results for the third quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我將向您介紹殼牌的業績和第三季度的業績。

We will also look at how these results fit into our longer-term trends, supporting progress towards our outlook for 2020 organic free cash flow.

我們還將研究這些結果如何適應我們的長期趨勢，以支持我們對 2020 年有機自由現金流的展望取得進展。

Later, I will also highlight the successes we've seen in our retail and LNG businesses.

隨後，我還將重點介紹我們在零售和液化天然氣業務中取得的成功。

Both of these businesses are core to our world-class investment case and embrace the strength of our brand, scale and capabilities.

這兩項業務都是我們世界級投資案例的核心，並體現了我們的品牌、規模和能力的優勢。

So let us begin with our financial performance.

讓我們從我們的財務業績開始。

Last quarter, we continued to deliver strong cash flow and earnings.

上季度，我們繼續提供強勁的現金流和收益。

This is despite continued weak oil and gas prices and chemicals margins.

儘管石油和天然氣價格以及化學品利潤持續疲軟，但情況仍然如此。

We've seen the value potential of one of our core strengths, trading and optimization, which allowed us to capitalize on the current market conditions.

我們已經看到了我們的核心優勢之一——交易和優化的價值潛力，這使我們能夠利用當前的市場狀況。

This has resulted in very strong performance from Integrated Gas and Downstream.

這導致綜合天然氣和下游業務表現非常強勁。

We've also seen our resilient marketing businesses generate strong returns, showing the strength of our scale, brand and customer offering.

我們還看到我們富有彈性的營銷業務產生了強勁的回報，顯示了我們的規模、品牌和客戶服務的實力。

While in our Upstream business, we did not achieve the level of earnings and cash that we know it can generate.

在我們的上游業務中，我們沒有達到我們所知道的可以產生的收入和現金水平。

Our cash flow from operations for last quarter was $12.1 billion, excluding working capital movements.

上季度我們的運營現金流為 121 億美元，不包括營運資金變動。

Our financial performance allowed us to cover the full cash dividend, interest payments and share buybacks.

我們的財務業績使我們能夠支付全額現金股息、利息支付和股票回購。

And when we review this from a 4-quarter rolling perspective with the future support from our projects continuing to ramp up, we are trending towards the delivery of our $28 billion to $33 billion organic free cash flow outlook in 2020.

當我們從 4 個季度滾動的角度回顧這一點，以及我們項目的未來支持繼續增加時，我們傾向於在 2020 年實現 280 億至 330 億美元的有機自由現金流前景。

However, softer macro conditions did impact our Q2 and Q3 cash flow from operations, excluding working capital movements, by some $5 billion in total when compared to the same period last year.

然而，宏觀環境疲軟確實對我們第二季度和第三季度的運營現金流（不包括營運資金變動）產生了影響，與去年同期相比，影響總額約為 50 億美元。

Our outlook is tied to an improved price and margin environment at real terms 2016 $60 per barrel and mid-cycle Downstream.

我們的前景與 2016 年實際價格和利潤環境的改善（每桶 60 美元）以及下游週期中期的改善息息相關。

And the prevailing weak macroeconomic conditions and challenging outlook have led to a review of our near-term price outlook.

當前疲弱的宏觀經濟狀況和充滿挑戰的前景導致我們對近期價格前景進行了審查。

While generating industry-leading cash flows is key to our world-class investment case, this is not our only ambition.

雖然產生行業領先的現金流是我們世界級投資案例的關鍵，但這並不是我們唯一的目標。

We also have the ambition to maintain a strong societal license to operate and to thrive in the energy transition.

我們還立志保持強大的社會許可，以便在能源轉型中運營和繁榮。

You may have heard about the Principles for Responsible Investment event.

您可能聽說過負責任投資原則活動。

It is the leading global conference on responsible investment.

這是全球領先的責任投資會議。

This year, the conference took place in Paris, and with about 1,600 delegates was probably the biggest yet.

今年的會議在巴黎舉行，大約有 1,600 名代表參加，這可能是迄今為止規模最大的一次。

Ben, our CEO, had been invited for keynote interview conducted by our institutional investors from the Climate Action 100+ initiative, who have led the engagement with us on the climate change statement, which we jointly released in December last year.

我們的首席執行官 Ben 受邀參加氣候行動 100+ 倡議的機構投資者進行的主題採訪，他們主導了我們去年 12 月聯合發布的氣候變化聲明的參與。

The interview reflected on the progress Shell has made on its commitments, but also more generally on the transition to a net 0 emissions environment.

此次採訪不僅反映了殼牌在履行其承諾方面取得的進展，而且更廣泛地反映了向淨零排放環境的過渡。

Importantly, our investors highlighted Shell as leading in addressing climate change in our sector, and we continue to work actively with investors across sectors to accelerate action.

重要的是，我們的投資者強調殼牌在我們行業應對氣候變化方面處於領先地位，我們將繼續與各行業的投資者積極合作，加速行動。

We believe we are taking meaningful steps to provide solutions and reshape our business models to thrive through the energy transition.

我們相信，我們正在採取有意義的步驟來提供解決方案並重塑我們的業務模式，以在能源轉型中蓬勃發展。

I would now like to move on to some of our recent portfolio highlights.

我現在想談談我們最近的一些投資組合亮點。

In Q3, active portfolio shaping continued.

第三季度，積極的投資組合塑造仍在繼續。

We achieved 2 FIDs, 4 startups, 3 new opportunities for growth and 3 divestments.

我們實現了 2 個最終投資決定、4 個初創公司、3 個新的增長機會和 3 個撤資。

In the third quarter, we saw the startup of 2 projects in Nigeria, the Forcados Yokri Integrated project and the Southern Swamp Associated Gas Gathering project.

第三季度，尼日利亞有兩個項目啟動，分別是Forcados Yokri綜合項目和Southern Swamp伴生氣收集項目。

In Nigeria, the levels of hydrocarbons flared from the SPDC joint venture facilities have fallen by close to 90% between 2002 and 2017.

在尼日利亞，2002 年至 2017 年間，SPDC 合資設施燃燒的碳氫化合物水平下降了近 90%。

SPDC remains committed to eliminating associated gas flaring, with reductions already realized from gas gathering initiatives while it continues to invest in facilities that capture the associated gas and commercialize it through domestic and export markets.

SPDC 仍然致力於消除伴生氣燃燒，通過天然氣收集計劃已經實現了減排，同時繼續投資收集伴生氣的設施並通過國內和出口市場將其商業化。

These 2 projects add to these efforts and show the JV's commitment to the development of the Delta State and Nigeria through its strong relationships to support business growth and our societal license to operate.

這兩個項目進一步增強了這些努力，並顯示了合資企業通過其支持業務增長的強大關係和我們的社會運營許可對三角洲州和尼日利亞發展的承諾。

In October, we announced our final investment decision on the Pierce Depressurisation Project in the U.K. Continental shelf, building on our significant presence in the North Sea.

10 月，我們宣布了對英國大陸架皮爾斯減壓項目的最終投資決定，以我們在北海的重要業務為基礎。

The development work will take place between 2020 and 2021.

開發工作將於 2020 年至 2021 年間進行。

And once complete, the Pierce gas field is expected to produce more than 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day at peak production.

建成後，皮爾斯氣田預計在高峰產量時每日產量將超過 30,000 桶油當量。

In September, we announced the completion of the Gumusut-Kakap Phase 2 project in Malaysia.

9月，我們宣布馬來西亞Gumusut-Kakap二期項目竣工。

At peak production, the 4 additional wells that we have drilled will add 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to the semifloating production system.

在生產高峰期，我們另外鑽探的 4 口井將為半浮式生產系統每天增加 50,000 桶油當量。

This will achieve the rated production capacity of this project of 165,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

這將實現該項目16.5萬桶油當量/日的額定產能。

Each of these are great examples of how we are unlocking opportunities and future value.

每一個都是我們如何釋放機遇和未來價值的好例子。

And through the combination of brownfield and greenfield projects, we will support our next phase of growth.

通過棕地和綠地項目的結合，我們將支持我們下一階段的增長。

Now let us turn to our financials for the quarter.

現在讓我們來看看本季度的財務狀況。

For Q3, cash flow from operations, excluding working capital movements, was $12.1 billion.

第三季度，運營現金流（不包括營運資金變動）為 121 億美元。

As I've also highlighted, we continue to see pressure on prices and margins for oil, gas and chemicals.

正如我還強調的那樣，我們繼續看到石油、天然氣和化學品的價格和利潤面臨壓力。

Oil and gas prices softened further, while there was some recovery in refining margins, with overall realized prices and margins lower when compared with Q3 last year.

油氣價格進一步走軟，煉油利潤有所回升，總體實現價格和利潤率較去年第三季度有所下降。

In the third quarter, Brent was at an average price of $62 per barrel, and our organic free cash flow was $6.6 billion.

第三季度布倫特原油平均價格為每桶 62 美元，我們的有機自由現金流為 66 億美元。

Earnings amounted to $4.8 billion, and our return on average capital employed was 8.1%.

盈利達 48 億美元，平均已動用資本回報率為 8.1%。

For Q3 2019, our gearing was 27.9% or 23.5% on an IAS 17 basis.

2019 年第三季度，按照 IAS 17 計算，我們的負債率為 27.9% 或 23.5%。

Our cash capital expenditure in the quarter was $6.1 billion.

本季度我們的現金資本支出為 61 億美元。

And for the full year 2019, we will keep our spend around the lower end of the $24 billion to $29 billion cash capital range.

2019 年全年，我們的支出將保持在 240 億至 290 億美元現金資本範圍的下限左右。

Our share buyback program is progressing with some $12 billion in shares purchased to date since the start of the program in July 2018, and the next tranche of up to $2.75 billion begins today.

自 2018 年 7 月啟動該計劃以來，我們的股票回購計劃正在取得進展，迄今為止已購買了約 120 億美元的股票，下一批股票回購計劃將於今天開始，金額高達 27.5 億美元。

During the last quarter, we bought back $2.9 billion of shares.

上個季度，我們回購了 29 億美元的股票。

We have now offset all scrip dividends issued post the BG Group combination.

我們現已抵消 BG 集團合併後發行的所有以股代息。

While our intention to buy back $25 billion of shares remains unchanged, the pace of the program is subject to our progress on debt and macro conditions.

雖然我們回購 250 億美元股票的意圖保持不變，但該計劃的進度取決於我們在債務和宏觀條件方面的進展。

We are conscious of the risks to the economy and the outlook for the Upstream and Downstream macro environments while acting in line with our commitment to preserve our financial framework.

我們意識到經濟面臨的風險以及上游和下游宏觀環境的前景，同時按照我們維護金融框架的承諾行事。

With the prevailing weak macroeconomic conditions and challenging outlook, including refining and chemical margins at the low mid-cycle levels, the ability to reduce gearing to 25% and completing the share buyback program may take additional time.

由於當前宏觀經濟形勢疲弱，前景充滿挑戰，包括煉油和化工利潤率處於週期中期較低水平，將負債率降低至 25% 並完成股票回購計劃可能需要更多時間。

We review the share buyback amount on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

我們按季度審查股票回購金額。

Now let us look at our earnings in more detail.

現在讓我們更詳細地看看我們的收入。

Q3 2019 earnings were down largely due to lower prices and margins.

2019 年第三季度收益下降主要是由於價格和利潤率下降。

Earnings in the third quarter were $4.8 billion, some 15% lower than in Q3 2018.

第三季度盈利為 48 億美元，比 2018 年第三季度下降約 15%。

In our Integrated Gas business, total production was 4% higher compared with the third quarter of 2018.

在我們的綜合天然氣業務中，總產量比 2018 年第三季度增長了 4%。

This was a result of new fields ramping up in Australia and Trinidad and Tobago.

這是澳大利亞和特立尼達和多巴哥新油田不斷開發的結果。

LNG liquefaction volumes increased by 9% compared with the third quarter 2018.

與2018年第三季度相比，液化天然氣液化量增長了9%。

LNG liquefaction volumes increased mainly as a result of new LNG capacity from Prelude as well as increased feed gas availability compared with the third quarter 2018.

與 2018 年第三季度相比，液化天然氣液化量的增加主要是由於 Prelude 新增液化天然氣產能以及原料氣供應量的增加。

Integrated Gas earnings were $2.7 billion, reflecting higher volumes and significantly stronger contributions from LNG trading and optimization.

綜合天然氣收入為 27 億美元，反映了液化天然氣交易和優化的銷量增加以及顯著增強的貢獻。

These earnings were partly offset by lower realized LNG, oil and gas prices.

這些收益部分被液化天然氣、石油和天然氣實際價格下降所抵消。

In Upstream, earnings were some $900 million, reflecting lower oil and gas prices, lower gas production and increased well write-offs, mainly in Kazakhstan.

在上游，收入約為 9 億美元，反映出石油和天然氣價格下降、天然氣產量下降以及油井註銷增加（主要發生在哈薩克斯坦）。

These well write-offs are a result of the decision not to progress the Kalamkas and Khazar projects.

這些油井註銷是由於決定不推進 Kalamkas 和 Khazar 項目的結果。

These projects were not deemed competitive versus other opportunities in Shell's global portfolio.

這些項目不被認為與殼牌全球投資組合中的其他項目相比具有競爭力。

Shell is one of the largest investors in Kazakhstan, and looks forward to continuing its cooperation with the Republic of Kazakhstan on future projects in the country.

殼牌是哈薩克斯坦最大的投資者之一，期待繼續與哈薩克斯坦共和國在該國未來的項目上進行合作。

Third quarter Upstream production decreased by 2% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

第三季度上游產量較去年同期下降2%。

This is caused by portfolio effects and weaker operational performance in the Gulf of Mexico and Norway.

這是由於墨西哥灣和挪威的投資組合效應以及較弱的運營業績造成的。

Excluding divestments and other portfolio effects, production was up 2% over the same period.

剔除撤資和其他投資組合影響後，同期產量增長了 2%。

In Downstream, earnings were at $2.2 billion in the third quarter, up from $2 billion in the same quarter last year.

下游業務第三季度盈利為 22 億美元，高於去年同期的 20 億美元。

This reflects higher marketing returns and also includes stronger contributions from oil products, trading and optimization as we realize opportunities from our well positioned and integrated portfolio in the lead up to the International Maritime Organization's stricter environmental rules for shipping fuel, which will start on the 1st of January 2020.

這反映了更高的營銷回報，還包括石油產品、貿易和優化的更大貢獻，因為我們在國際海事組織將於 1 日開始實施更嚴格的航運燃料環境規則之前，從我們定位良好的綜合投資組合中認識到​​了機遇。 2020 年 1 月。

Our Downstream earnings were partly offset by lower realized margins for refining, base chemicals and intermediates.

我們的下游收益被煉油、基礎化學品和中間體的實現利潤率較低所部分抵消。

In the corporate segment, our underlying earnings, excluding identified items, were aligned with the latest outlook, where we also highlighted a weakening of the Brazilian real, generating a negative earnings impact.

在企業部門，我們的基本收益（不包括已確定的項目）與最新展望一致，我們還強調了巴西雷亞爾的疲軟，對收益產生了負面影響。

Now that we've covered our earnings, let me turn to cash flow.

現在我們已經討論了我們的收入，讓我談談現金流。

Our cash flow from operations, excluding working capital movements, amounted to $12.1 billion.

我們的運營現金流（不包括營運資金變動）達 121 億美元。

This is $2.6 billion lower than in Q3 last year.

這比去年第三季度減少了 26 億美元。

In our Integrated Gas business, cash flow from operations in Q3 2019 was $4.2 billion, some $900 million or 27% higher than Q3 2018.

在我們的綜合天然氣業務中，2019 年第三季度的運營現金流為 42 億美元，比 2018 年第三季度高出約 9 億美元，即 27%。

In Upstream, our cash flow from operations was $4.4 billion, around $2.3 billion lower than in the same quarter last year.

在上游，我們的運營現金流為 44 億美元，比去年同期減少約 23 億美元。

In our Downstream business, our cash flow from operations was $3.2 billion, some $2.2 billion higher in Q3 2019 when compared with Q3 2018.

在我們的下游業務中，我們的運營現金流為 32 億美元，2019 年第三季度比 2018 年第三季度高出約 22 億美元。

This largely reflects the negative impact on working capital in Q3 2018, resulting from higher inventory price and volume movements.

這在很大程度上反映了庫存價格和銷量變動上升對 2018 年第三季度營運資金的負面影響。

Now let us review how we've delivered over longer periods.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們在較長時期內的交付情況。

On this slide, you can see our financial trends across an extended period.

在這張幻燈片上，您可以看到我們長期的財務趨勢。

And as I've said in previous quarters, they are moving in the right direction, particularly given the softer macro in Q3.

正如我在前幾個季度所說的那樣，他們正在朝著正確的方向前進，特別是考慮到第三季度宏觀經濟疲軟。

Looking at our gearing.

看看我們的傳動裝置。

This was 27.9% at the end of Q3 2019, more or less at the same level as Q2 2019.

2019 年第三季度末這一比例為 27.9%，與 2019 年第二季度大致持平。

There are a number of factors affecting our gearing calculation, such as additional leases being brought on to our balance sheet and movements in equity through revaluation of our pension liabilities.

有許多因素影響我們的負債計算，例如我們的資產負債表上增加的額外租賃以及通過養老金負債重估引起的股本變動。

For example, last quarter, we brought the lease for the Elba LNG terminal in the U.S. onto our balance sheet, adding $1.4 billion to our net debt.

例如，上個季度，我們將美國厄爾巴液化天然氣接收站的租賃納入了我們的資產負債表，使我們的淨債務增加了 14 億美元。

And with the current outlook on macro, equity movements and lease recognition, gearing is likely to stay above 25% during 2020 on an IFRS 16 basis.

鑑於當前宏觀、股權變動和租賃確認的前景，按 IFRS 16 計算，2020 年負債率可能會保持在 25% 以上。

Our net debt at the end of Q3 2019 was around $75 billion on an IFRS 16 basis.

根據 IFRS 16，我們截至 2019 年第三季度末的淨債務約為 750 億美元。

This is some $7 billion lower than at the end of 2017.

這比 2017 年底減少了約 70 億美元。

It is important to note that we have been deleveraging our balance sheet, and our priority remains to reduce net debt in 2020.

值得注意的是，我們一直在對資產負債表進行去槓桿化，2020 年我們的首要任務仍然是減少淨債務。

We remain committed to maintaining AA equivalent credit metrics.

我們仍然致力於維持 AA 同等信用指標。

Now you've seen the quarterly results and how these fit into our 4-quarter rolling financials.

現在您已經看到了季度業績以及這些業績如何融入我們的 4 季度滾動財務數據。

Let us look at how this supports our 2020 organic free cash flow outlook.

讓我們看看這如何支持我們 2020 年有機自由現金流的前景。

This outlook is based on real terms 2016 $60 and mid-cycle Downstream, and prices in the second and third quarters have been below this level.

該展望基於 2016 年實際價格 60 美元和下游週期中期，第二季度和第三季度的價格一直低於該水平。

On a normalized 4-quarter rolling basis, we've generated some $21 billion of organic free cash flow.

在標準化的 4 季度滾動基礎上，我們產生了約 210 億美元的有機自由現金流。

Our growth in cash flows towards 2020 from key operating assets is supported by the ramp up at Prelude and Appomattox.

Prelude 和 Appomattox 的增長支撐了我們到 2020 年主要運營資產現金流的增長。

Since startup, Prelude has delivered a total of 8 LNG cargoes as well as condensate and LPG.

自啟動以來，Prelude 已總共交付了 8 批液化天然氣貨物以及凝析油和液化石油氣。

Our focus remains on safe and reliable operations as we continue the production ramp-up.

在繼續提高產量的同時，我們的重點仍然是安全可靠的運營。

Appomattox is also ramping up, producing around 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day over the last month from 3 wells, with 15 more wells in the total drilling program yet to come online.

Appomattox 的產量也在增加，上個月通過 3 口井每天生產約 45,000 桶油當量，整個鑽井計劃中還有 15 口井尚未上線。

This means production from Appomattox will continue to increase in a phased manner as we bring more wells online in 2020.

這意味著隨著我們在 2020 年投產更多油井，Appomattox 的產量將繼續分階段增加。

With these assets safely ramping up and after adding back the impact from IFRS 16, you can see that we're progressing towards the range of $28 billion to $33 billion of organic free cash flow by the end of 2020.

隨著這些資產的安全增長，加上 IFRS 16 的影響，您可以看到，到 2020 年底，我們的有機自由現金流將達到 280 億至 330 億美元。

Last quarter, we saw strong cash flow and earnings despite continued weak margins and lower oil and gas prices.

上季度，儘管利潤率持續疲軟且石油和天然氣價格較低，但我們仍看到強勁的現金流和收益。

This shows our resilience through the cycle.

這顯示了我們在整個週期中的韌性。

Before I wrap up, I wanted to talk in more detail about 2 of our businesses that have delivered competitive and resilient results during the third quarter, LNG and retail.

在結束之前，我想更詳細地談談我們在第三季度交付有競爭力和彈性業績的兩項業務：液化天然氣和零售。

We are a market leader in LNG, and our portfolio is unmatched, with diverse supply and demand positions across the world.

我們是液化天然氣市場的領導者，我們的產品組合無與倫比，在全球範圍內擁有多樣化的供需狀況。

In 2018, we sold some 71 million tonnes of LNG, a 22% share of worldwide sales.

2018 年，我們銷售了約 7100 萬噸液化天然氣，佔全球銷量的 22%。

The majority of our volumes, some 58 million tonnes last year, is sourced on a long-term basis, and this is largely matched by long-term sales agreements.

我們的大部分產量（去年約為 5800 萬噸）是長期採購的，這在很大程度上與長期銷售協議相匹配。

The pricing of more than 80% of these term contracts is linked to the oil price, typically with 3- to 6-month time lag.

這些定期合同中超過 80% 的定價與油價掛鉤，通常有 3 至 6 個月的時滯。

In addition to our term volumes, we choose to purchase or sell additional LNG on the spot market.

除了我們的定期交易量外，我們還選擇在現貨市場上購買或出售額外的液化天然氣。

These transactions are discretionary, and we only pursue them if they're value accretive.

這些交易是酌情決定的，我們只有在能夠增值的情況下才會進行交易。

While the value we generate from spot and optimization opportunities might vary from quarter-to-quarter, our world-class trading and optimization capabilities allow us to deliver material and resilient cash flows from our leading portfolio.

雖然我們從現貨和優化機會中產生的價值可能因季度而異，但我們世界一流的交易和優化能力使我們能夠從我們領先的投資組合中提供實質性和有彈性的現金流。

The performance last quarter demonstrates our strength in trading and optimization, and it also shows how the current weak spot LNG prices have little impact on profitability in our business, with the oil price remaining the main macro driver for the integrated gas results.

上季度的業績證明了我們在交易和優化方面的實力，也表明當前液化天然氣現貨價格的弱勢對我們業務的盈利能力影響不大，而油價仍然是綜合天然氣業績的主要宏觀驅動力。

Now let me touch upon another topic that is of interest to market observers and investors, LNG contract price reviews.

現在讓我談談市場觀察者和投資者感興趣的另一個話題：液化天然氣合同價格審查。

Price reviews are a normal feature of long-term contracting and can differ from contract to contract.

價格審查是長期合同的正常特徵，並且因合同而異。

Contracts typically include terms detailing the timing of contract amendments and how revised pricing will be established.

合同通常包括詳細說明合同修改時間以及如何確定修改後的定價的條款。

For example, while a contractual price formula may change, it would be extremely unusual for the underlying price indexation to change.

例如，雖然合同價格公式可能會發生變化，但基礎價格指數的變化卻是極不尋常的。

From the price reviews that are currently ongoing in our portfolio, we do not expect a significant impact on this or next year's results.

從我們投資組合目前正在進行的價格審查來看，我們預計不會對今年或明年的業績產生重大影響。

Our 2025 cash outlook -- cash flow outlook already takes into account anticipated changes from price reviews where required.

我們的 2025 年現金展望——現金流展望已經考慮到了價格審查的預期變化（如有需要）。

And let's not lose sight of the long-term fundamentals of the LNG market.

我們不要忽視液化天然氣市場的長期基本面。

Natural gas plays a key role in the transition to a cleaner energy system.

天然氣在向清潔能源系統過渡中發揮著關鍵作用。

And as we said at our Management Day earlier this year, we expect LNG demand to grow at 4% per year.

正如我們在今年早些時候的管理日上所說，我們預計液化天然氣需求將以每年 4% 的速度增長。

We are planning to grow with it, keeping our leading position.

我們計劃與它一起成長，保持我們的領先地位。

Not only do we expect growing demand, we also see a supply gap emerging in the mid-2020s once the current wave of new liquefaction capacity has been absorbed.

我們不僅預計需求將不斷增長，而且一旦當前一波新的液化產能被吸收，我們還將看到 2020 年代中期出現供應缺口。

Consequently, we are seeing continued interest in long-term contracts from LNG buyers.

因此，我們看到液化天然氣買家對長期合同持續感興趣。

In Hong Kong, for example, we recently signed a long-term agreement for the supply of LNG for its first LNG terminal.

例如，在香港，我們最近簽署了一項為其首個液化天然氣接收站供應液化天然氣的長期協議。

This secures a new market in Asia.

這確保了亞洲的新市場。

You can see why we believe in LNG as a fuel and as a strong business and why we are committed to continue investing in our LNG portfolio to grow cash and returns.

您可以看到為什麼我們相信液化天然氣作為一種燃料和一項強大的業務，以及為什麼我們致力於繼續投資我們的液化天然氣投資組合以增加現金和回報。

Another part of the business that did particularly well during Q3 was retail.

第三季度表現特別好的另一部分業務是零售。

I thought it would be useful to share some of the progress we've made with the retail growth strategy we presented at the Downstream Open House in March last year.

我認為分享我們去年 3 月在下游開放日上提出的零售增長戰略所取得的一些進展將會很有用。

Our retail business currently serves more than 30 million customers every day, with more than 45,000 sites in almost 80 countries, enabling Downstream to generate $3.2 billion in cash flow from operations in Q3.

我們的零售業務目前每天為超過 3000 萬客戶提供服務，在近 80 個國家/地區擁有超過 45,000 個站點，使 Downstream 在第三季度的運營中能夠產生 32 億美元的現金流。

And there's more to come.

還有更多的事情即將發生。

We are on track to deliver on our 2025 growth target and reach 55,000 service stations in more than 90 countries, serving more than 40 million customers every day.

我們有望實現 2025 年的增長目標，在 90 多個國家/地區擁有 55,000 個服務站，每天為超過 4000 萬客戶提供服務。

We will do this by extending our leading position through 3 key strengths: our scale, our brand recognition with differentiated product and service offerings and our excellent customer focus.

為此，我們將通過三大關鍵優勢來擴大我們的領先地位：我們的規模、我們通過差異化產品和服務提供的品牌認知度以及我們卓越的以客戶為中心。

Let me start with the scale of our facilities.

讓我從我們的設施規模開始。

We aim to expand in key growth markets like China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia through adding 5,000 new sites across these markets by 2025.

我們的目標是到 2025 年在中國、印度、印度尼西亞、墨西哥和俄羅斯等主要增長市場增加 5,000 個新站點，從而實現擴張。

Since 2017, in addition to optimizing our existing portfolio position, we've added around 1,000.

自 2017 年以來，除了優化我們現有的投資組合頭寸外，我們還增加了大約 1,000 個頭寸。

China is significant for our growth ambitions.

中國對於我們的增長雄心具有重要意義。

We've been investing materially to strengthen our brand there, now reaching the third position overall in this market and occupying the leading position among international energy companies.

我們一直在大力投資以強化我們的品牌，目前在該市場的整體排名已達到第三位，並在國際能源公司中佔據領先地位。

Apart from growing in new markets, we are also increasing our existing markets by adding 5,000 new sites compared to 2017 by 2025.

除了拓展新市場外，到 2025 年，我們還通過在 2017 年的基礎上增加 5,000 個新站點來擴大現有市場。

So far, in addition to optimizing our existing portfolio position, we've added over 1,500.

到目前為止，除了優化我們現有的投資組合頭寸外，我們還增加了 1,500 多個頭寸。

Another area for expansion is our convenience stores.

另一個需要擴展的領域是我們的便利店。

We want to add 5,000 stores across our network by the end of 2025 compared to 2017.

與 2017 年相比，我們希望到 2025 年底在我們的網絡中增加 5,000 家商店。

To date, we've added more than 1,500.

迄今為止，我們已添加了超過 1,500 個。

Our convenience stores bring me to the second and third way to extend our leading position: with our brand recognition through our products and services.

我們的便利店讓我找到了擴大我們領先地位的第二種和第三種方式：通過我們的產品和服務提高我們的品牌知名度。

Like our premium fuel, Shell V-Power, which currently constitutes 1 in every 5 liters of fuel we sell in the world; and like our nonfuel retail offerings, such as coffee and lubricants; nonfuel retail margins have increased by 10% compared to last year.

就像我們的優質燃油 Shell V-Power，目前我們在全球銷售的燃油中每 5 升就有 1 升；以及我們的非燃料零售產品，例如咖啡和潤滑油；與去年相比，非燃料零售利潤增長了 10%。

Lubricants play an important role in this result.

潤滑劑在這一結果中發揮著重要作用。

To meet growing demand, this year, we've opened 400 additional Shell lubricant servicing outlets, where people can have the oil in their vehicles changed and have minor checkups or repairs done.

為了滿足不斷增長的需求，今年我們又開設了 400 個殼牌潤滑油服務網點，人們可以在這裡更換車輛中的機油並進行小型檢查或維修。

Another successful service we want to keep growing is Shell Fleet Solutions, which now has more than 8 million customers.

我們希望繼續發展的另一項成功服務是殼牌車隊解決方案，該服務目前擁有超過 800 萬客戶。

We support our customers by playing a leading role in handling of electronic tolls for transport companies.

我們通過在運輸公司處理電子收費方面發揮主導作用來為客戶提供支持。

The driver uses 1 Shell card to pay for tolls and fuels, and the company receives 1 periodic invoice, making the administration experience easier.

司機使用 1 張 Shell 卡支付通行費和燃油費，公司收到 1 張定期發票，使管理體驗更加輕鬆。

In addition to our facilities and products, another way to extend our leading position in retail is through our customer focus.

除了我們的設施和產品之外，擴大我們在零售業領先地位的另一種方法是通過我們以客戶為中心。

We have 500,000 service employees working for us around the world, and they make sure Shell meets the needs of our customers today and in the future.

我們在世界各地擁有 500,000 名服務員工，他們確保殼牌滿足客戶當前和未來的需求。

This means we keep evolving to meet the changing needs of our customers.

這意味著我們不斷發展以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。

Across our retail portfolio, for example, we continue to expand our presence in electric battery car charging.

例如，在我們的零售產品組合中，我們繼續擴大在電動汽車充電領域的業務。

Shell Recharge, our fast-charging brand, is now present in 300 forecourts across our global network.

我們的快速充電品牌 Shell Recharge 現已遍布我們全球網絡的 300 個前院。

Also, in Q2, we introduced carbon neutral driving in the Netherlands.

此外，在第二季度，我們在荷蘭推出了碳中和駕駛。

This means Shell will offset customers' emissions by purchasing carbon credits generated from projects that plant and protect nature, like forests, wetlands and other natural ecosystems.

這意味著殼牌將通過購買種植和保護自然（如森林、濕地和其他自然生態系統）的項目產生的碳信用額來抵消客戶的排放量。

Earlier this month, results showed that 1 in every 5 customers are choosing to drive carbon neutral when fueling at Shell.

本月早些時候，結果顯示，每 5 名客戶中就有 1 名在殼牌加油時選擇碳中和駕駛。

And since the 10th of October, customers in the U.K. can also drive carbon neutral through our loyalty app, Go+.

自 10 月 10 日起，英國客戶還可以通過我們的忠誠度應用程序 Go+ 推動碳中和。

We aim to expand the offer for carbon neutral driving into more countries.

我們的目標是將碳中和駕駛服務擴展到更多國家。

While the retail business is supporting our ambitions of being a world-class investment case and helping Shell thrive through the energy transition, we are also committed to building a business that has a strong license to operate.

雖然零售業務正在支持我們成為世界級投資案例並幫助殼牌在能源轉型中蓬勃發展的雄心，但我們也致力於建立一個擁有強大運營許可的業務。

There are several initiatives retail is undertaking to support this.

零售業正在採取多項舉措來支持這一點。

For example, how we connect with larger initiatives like playing an active role in finding lasting solutions to end plastic waste.

例如，我們如何與更大的倡議聯繫起來，例如在尋找消除塑料廢物的持久解決方案方面發揮積極作用。

Shell's retail business is helping its service stations and customers reduce, reuse and repurpose waste across its operations and supply chain with initiatives from incentivizing reusable cups and bags to converting plastic waste into eco bricks.

殼牌的零售業務正在幫助其服務站和客戶在其運營和供應鏈中減少、再利用和重新利用廢物，採取的舉措包括激勵可重複使用的杯子和袋子，以及將塑料廢物轉化為生態磚。

As you can see, retail is delivering strong results for Shell.

正如您所看到的，零售業為殼牌帶來了強勁的業績。

And by offering more and cleaner choices to motorists around the world, Shell and retail will continue to grow.

通過為世界各地的駕車者提供更多、更清潔的選擇，殼牌和零售業將繼續增長。

In summary, Shell showed its competitiveness and resilience in Q3, delivering strong cash flow and earnings despite a challenging macro environment and some operational shortfalls.

總而言之，殼牌在第三季度展現了其競爭力和韌性，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰且存在一些運營缺陷，但仍實現了強勁的現金流和盈利。

Our Upstream, Refining and Chemicals businesses certainly have the potential to generate more cash.

我們的上游、煉油和化工業務當然有潛力產生更多現金。

You saw our Marketing business generate resilient returns, and our trading and optimization teams in Downstream and Integrated Gas clearly did very well last quarter.

您看到我們的營銷業務產生了有彈性的回報，我們下游和綜合天然氣的交易和優化團隊顯然在上個季度表現出色。

Looking forward, especially with projects like Appomattox and Prelude ramping up and continued focus on improving asset performance, we will further strengthen and grow the cash flows from our businesses to continue to progress towards our 2020 outlook and the ambition we expressed to strengthen our balance sheet and grow shareholder distributions sustainably.

展望未來，特別是隨著 Appomattox 和 Prelude 等項目的推進以及繼續專注於改善資產績效，我們將進一步加強和增加業務現金流，繼續朝著我們的 2020 年前景和我們所表達的加強資產負債表的雄心邁進並可持續地增加股東分配。

In summary, there are 2 key messages for the third quarter.

總而言之，第三季度有兩個關鍵信息。

The first is we continue to demonstrate delivery of our strategy and therefore achieve competitive and resilient cash flow delivery.

首先是我們繼續展示我們的戰略的實施，從而實現有競爭力和有彈性的現金流交付。

The second is weaker macro conditions today and outlook matters to us, today's performance and our trajectory.

第二個是今天的宏觀環境疲軟，前景對我們、今天的表現和我們的發展軌跡都很重要。

Given the relationship of the macro to our outlook, we thought it would be good to hear directly from Ben.

考慮到宏觀經濟與我們前景的關係，我們認為直接聽取本的意見會很好。

And so Ben has joined me for the Q&A session today.

所以本今天和我一起參加了問答環節。

With that, let's go for your questions.

那麼，讓我們來回答你的問題。

Please, could we have just 1 or 2 so that everyone has the opportunity to ask a question.

請我們只提供 1 或 2 個，以便每個人都有機會提問。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today will come from Oswald Clint with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自奧斯瓦爾德·克林特和伯恩斯坦。

Yes.

是的。

Perhaps just around this buyback indication for 2020.

或許就在 2020 年回購指標左右。

I guess if we just go back 4 or 5 months ago in June, the slides were suggesting a pretty confident delivery of those 2020 targets.

我想如果我們回到 4 或 5 個月前的 6 月，幻燈片表明我們非常有信心實現 2020 年的目標。

So what's changed in the last 5 months to really come out with a much more conservative commodity price view for 2020 in terms of the buybacks?

那麼，過去 5 個月發生了什麼變化，才真正讓人們對 2020 年的回購大宗商品價格看法更加保守呢？

But I mean, perhaps what I wanted to see, if the macro was to improve, do you feel confident on delivering the final $10 billion worth of buybacks in 2020?

但我的意思是，也許我想看到的是，如果宏觀經濟要改善，你對 2020 年最後 100 億美元的回購有信心嗎？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And then really, back on Chemicals, you spoke about Chemicals being below mid-cycle levels.

然後，實際上，回到化學品，您談到化學品低於週期中期水平。

I do note your indicator margins came back in 3Q, back to last year's levels and up from the second quarter.

我確實注意到，你們的指標利潤率在第三季度有所回升，回到了去年的水平，並且比第二季度有所上升。

Your volumes were off a little bit, but the earnings are kind of still down 50% or so year-over-year.

你們的銷量略有下降，但收入仍同比下降 50% 左右。

Moerdijk is back.

莫爾戴克回來了。

So I'm just wondering, is there something else going on or some extra issues happening within the Chemicals division, please?

所以我只是想知道，化學品部門是否還發生了其他事情或發生了一些額外的問題？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Oswald.

謝謝你，奧斯瓦爾德。

I'll start off and then invite Ben to add, particularly on the first question.

我將首先邀請 Ben 補充，特別是第一個問題。

In terms of the outlook and what's changed, it's really a reflection of the macro environment we've witnessed in Q2 and Q3 and additional signals we see a bit -- across the portfolio and across the economy.

就前景和變化而言，這確實反映了我們在第二季度和第三季度目睹的宏觀環境以及我們在投資組合和整個經濟中看到的其他信號。

And I think you're likely well aware of them.

我認為您可能很了解它們。

Declining interest rates are also an indication of the expectations of the strength of the economy going forward.

利率下降也表明了對未來經濟實力的預期。

That certainly has happened throughout the course of the year and most recently this week.

這種情況肯定在這一年中發生過，最近的一次發生在本週。

Softening demand in terms of the pace of oil growth is being experienced, and that's playing into sentiment in the oil and gas sector, and certainly prices in the oil and gas sector.

石油增長速度帶來的需求正在減弱，這影響了石油和天然氣行業的情緒，當然也影響了石油和天然氣行業的價格。

We're not seeing much response from risk in the oil and gas market in terms of prices.

我們沒有看到石油和天然氣市場的風險對價格產生太大反應。

So the overall fundamentals around demand, there's some uncertainty around supply response, but also the acceptance of risk in the market points to probably a lower outlook than perhaps we had in the first half of the year.

因此，圍繞需求的整體基本面、供應反應存在一些不確定性，而且市場對風險的接受程度也表明，前景可能比我們上半年的情況要低。

That's on the Upstream side.

那是在上游一側。

On the Downstream side, again, very low refining margins experienced in Q2, a little bit of a bounce back in Q3.

在下游方面，第二季度的煉油利潤率再次非常低，第三季度略有反彈。

But again, in terms of the fundamentals of the sector and the outlook, it's quite possible that we will not get to mid-cycle margins in the refining sector.

但同樣，就該行業的基本面和前景而言，我們很可能無法達到煉油行業的中期利潤率。

And on the Chemicals sector, a couple things at play.

在化學品行業，有一些因素在發揮作用。

On the margin side, while some of the marker margins did improve in terms of the product slate that we have, what we're achieving in terms of the products in our portfolio has not seen a positive rebound from prior quarters or from prior years.

在利潤方面，雖然我們擁有的產品系列方面的一些標記利潤確實有所改善，但我們在投資組合中的產品方面所取得的成就並沒有看到與前幾個季度或前幾年相比的積極反彈。

And so we're very much experiencing a lower margin environment for our portfolio.

因此，我們的投資組合正在經歷利潤率較低的環境。

I'd also say that we're also seeing some lower volumes in the Chemicals business as well, which, for us, is also an indication of a potential softening of the economic environment as well.

我還想說，我們也看到化學品業務的銷量有所下降，對我們來說，這也表明經濟環境可能會疲軟。

So we're seeing it today.

所以我們今天看到了。

We don't see reason to believe or -- there's not a huge amount of optimism out there in terms of a rapid improvement.

我們沒有理由相信——對於快速改善，人們並沒有太多的樂觀情緒。

That's not to say it can't improve or it won't improve, either on the Upstream macro environment or the Downstream.

這並不是說它不能改善或不會改善，無論是在上游宏觀環境還是下游。

And if it does, that's a very different circumstance.

如果確實如此，那就是一個非常不同的情況。

What we're trying to emphasize here, as we've done throughout our engagement with the market over the last few years, whether it be at Management Day '17 or Management Day '19 or Management Day '16 for that matter, the macro matters for us.

我們在這裡想強調的是，正如我們在過去幾年與市場的接觸中所做的那樣，無論是在“17 管理日”、“19 管理日”還是“16 管理日”，宏觀經濟對我們來說很重要。

And we've always conditioned our outlook in relation to RT '16 $60 and mid-cycle Downstream, and we're not seeing that today.

我們一直根據 RT '16 $60 和中期下游下游來調整我們的前景，但今天我們沒有看到這一點。

And there's a real potential that, that will continue going forward.

未來確實有潛力繼續發展。

Yes.

是的。

Oswald, it's Ben here.

奧斯瓦爾德，我是本。

I think it's important to emphasize a few points back to what I think is a very sort of sensible question to us, what has changed since the 6th of June, earlier in the year?

我認為有必要強調幾點，回到我認為對我們來說非常明智的問題：自今年早些時候的 6 月 6 日以來發生了什麼變化？

Well, first of all, nothing has changed when it comes to our plans and nothing has changed when it comes to our intentions.

嗯，首先，我們的計劃沒有任何改變，我們的意圖也沒有任何改變。

So very clearly, we are still completely intent on buying back $25 billion of shares, and we are also completely committed to strengthening the balance sheet by bringing debt down.

很明顯，我們仍然完全打算回購 250 億美元的股票，並且我們也完全致力於通過降低債務來強化資產負債表。

So that hasn't changed.

所以這並沒有改變。

But what has changed, of course, is the macro since then.

但當然，自那以後發生了變化的是宏觀經濟。

And the macro matters, as Jessica says.

正如傑西卡所說，宏觀因素很重要。

So we always said, we have an outlook for the end of the decade, for next year, which is premised on $60 real terms '16 Brent, associated gas prices, mid-cycle margins.

所以我們總是說，我們對本世紀末和明年有展望，這是以 16 年布倫特原油實際價格 60 美元、伴生天然氣價格、中期利潤率為前提的。

And if you just look at what is happening in the last quarter and are projected forward from Q3, Q4 and the whole of next year, if nothing would change, what we are essentially losing is $2 billion to $3 billion in the Downstream because we are below the mid-cycle conditions that we were premising and about $5 billion to $6 billion lower cash because we are below the oil and gas prices.

如果你只看上一季度發生的情況，並預測第三季度、第四季度和明年全年的情況，如果沒有任何改變，我們在下游的本質上損失了 20 億到 30 億美元，因為我們低於我們所假設的周期中期條件，並且現金減少約 50 億至 60 億美元，因為我們低於石油和天然氣價格。

This is if nothing would change anymore from here on.

如果從現在開始一切都不再改變的話。

So if you add it up, that's about $8 billion to $9 billion of less cash coming in compared to the reference conditions against which we have premised our outlook.

因此，如果將其加起來，與我們預測前景時所依據的參考條件相比，現金流入將減少約 80 億至 90 億美元。

And that matters for us.

這對我們很重要。

$8 billion to $9 billion is a lot of money.

80億到90億美元是很多錢。

It matters at the scale of the buyback and debt reduction ambition that we have set to ourselves.

這對於我們為自己設定的回購和債務削減雄心的規模很重要。

But I think, therefore, it is sensible that we caution that the current macro, if -- certainly, if it persists, is going to affect us.

但我認為，因此，我們警告當前的宏觀政策，如果——當然，如果它持續下去，將會影響我們，這是明智的。

But let's be also very clear, I do not want to leave you with the impression that something somehow has changed inside the company.

但我們也要明確一點，我不想給您留下公司內部發生了某種變化的印象。

And we also don't want to signal that our intentions have changed.

我們也不想表明我們的意圖已經改變。

But if indeed the conditions as we have seen them since the middle of the year are going to prevail for 6 quarters in a row, then I think it is prudent to let you know that we will also be affected by that type of macro.

但如果我們自年中以來所看到的情況確實會連續六個季度普遍存在，那麼我認為謹慎的做法是讓您知道我們也將受到此類宏觀的影響。

Next, we'll move to Christyan Malek with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將邀請摩根大通的克里斯蒂安·馬利克 (Christian Malek)。

Sorry if the line is bad as I'm on my way to the Middle East.

抱歉，如果線路不好，因為我正在前往中東的路上。

Two, if I may.

如果可以的話，兩個。

The macro backdrop is broadly the same, and your cash flows have improved.

宏觀背景大致相同，現金流有所改善。

And Ben, you've confirmed the 2020 free cash flow outlook.

Ben，您已經確認了 2020 年自由現金流前景。

This suggests that you are more bullish in the context of what you've done today with the cautionary statement on your price assumptions.

這表明，在今天所做的事情以及對價格假設的謹慎聲明的背景下，您更加看漲。

With that in mind and at risk of sounding like a broken record, surely this creates a greater focus and priority to solve for lower cash breakevens closer to where the back end of the curve is in order to bring the capital framework in line with today's macro reality.

考慮到這一點，並且冒著聽起來像是破紀錄的風險，這肯定會產生更大的關注和優先事項，以解決接近曲線後端的較低現金盈虧平衡點，以使資本框架與當今的宏觀經濟保持一致。現實。

At the moment, this is still in the mid-60s -- mid- to high 60s.

目前，這仍處於 60 年代中期——60 年代中上段。

And so this begs the question, is your $125 billion cash return target for 2021 overly optimistic?

那麼這就引出了一個問題，您的 2021 年 1250 億美元現金回報目標是否過於樂觀？

And does that need to be revised?

這是否需要修改？

And if not, what are your levers to help mitigate the target?

如果沒有，您有什麼手段來幫助減輕目標？

And secondly, if I may, I'm somewhat linked to deterioration in gas prices in the IG business.

其次，如果可以的話，我在某種程度上與 IG 業務的天然氣價格惡化有關。

Can you confirm that your sales volumes on Prelude, as there are a lot of projects that went over the $100 a barrel, can generate an implied positive cash return?

您能否確認您在 Prelude 上的銷量（因為有很多項目超過每桶 100 美元）可以產生隱含的正現金回報？

Or are they now loss-making?

或者說他們現在正在虧損？

Christyan, thank you for the questions.

克里斯蒂安，謝謝你的提問。

In terms of our outlook on the macro and any changed views, go back to a few points that are raised, and again, just restate what Ben has said.

就我們對宏觀經濟的展望以及觀點的任何變化而言，請回到提出的幾點，並再次重申本所說的話。

In terms of has anything changed, fundamentally, things haven't changed.

就發生了什麼變化而言，從根本上來說，事情沒有改變。

Our intent is clear in terms of our buyback, the strengthening of our balance sheet, increasing shareholder distributions while continuing to invest and grow the company.

我們的意圖很明確，包括回購、強化資產負債表、增加股東分配，同時繼續投資和發展公司。

And those intentions are unchanged.

這些意圖沒有改變。

Our financial framework is unchanged in terms of ensuring we get the strength in balance sheet.

在確保我們的資產負債表實力方面，我們的財務框架沒有變化。

And the conditions haven't changed.

而且條件沒有改變。

What we've said from the beginning is that we would strengthen the balance sheet that was subject to net debt, and the further condition was the right macro environment.

我們一開始就說過，要強化受淨債務影響的資產負債表，進一步的條件是宏觀環境合適。

We're simply pointing out that the current conditions we're experiencing from a macro perspective, where we're seeing both softness in the Upstream macro and the Downstream macro at the same time, not unheard of, but slightly unusual.

我們只是指出，從宏觀角度來看，我們正在經歷的當前狀況，我們同時看到上游宏觀和下游宏觀的疲軟，這並非聞所未聞，但有點不尋常。

We're experiencing -- and there's reasons to believe that, that could continue.

我們正在經歷——並且有理由相信這種情況可能會持續下去。

It may not continue.

它可能不會繼續。

And this conversation would be less necessary if it does not continue.

如果不繼續下去，這次談話就沒必要了。

But the point is what we're experiencing today and if that should continue, we're simply making a statement that's consistent with the way we have framed our intentions in the past.

但關鍵是我們今天正在經歷的事情，如果這種情況繼續下去，我們只是發表了一個與我們過去表達意圖的方式一致的聲明。

I think in terms of going forward and the strength of the company and our ability to achieve the $25 billion and the 25% gearing level, I have full confidence in the ability of the company to do that.

我認為，就未來的發展、公司的實力以及我們實現 250 億美元和 25% 的負債水平的能力而言，我對公司做到這一點的能力充滿信心。

Against the weak macro, as you've pointed out, our cash flow is very strong.

正如您所指出的，在宏觀疲弱的情況下，我們的現金流非常強勁。

Organic free cash flow, some $6.6 billion for the quarter against a relatively weak macro, and there's more to come from the company through the growth of our projects or the ramping up of our projects and continued focus on operational excellence.

在相對疲軟的宏觀環境下，本季度的有機自由現金流約為 66 億美元，並且通過我們項目的增長或項目的增加以及持續關注卓越運營，公司將獲得更多收益。

So there's more cash to come.

因此，還會有更多現金到來。

And that really drives our ability to deliver.

這確實提高了我們的交付能力。

And of course, this year, against a weak macro, we will likely get to at least $24 billion to $25 billion in total shareholder distributions for the year.

當然，今年，在宏觀疲弱的情況下，我們今年的股東分配總額可能至少達到 240 億至 250 億美元。

And so if you think about the statements we made in Management Day '19 in June, in terms of the level of shareholder distributions, we're essentially achieving on what was premised on an annual basis here in 2019 and a relatively soft macro.

因此，如果你考慮一下我們在 6 月的“19 年管理日”中就股東分配水平所做的聲明，我們基本上是在 2019 年年度基礎和相對疲軟的宏觀環境下實現的。

And of course, the outlook through 2025 had some anticipation -- well, had RT '16 $60 as well.

當然，對 2025 年的前景也有一些預期——嗯，RT '16 的價格也有 60 美元。

So there's some anticipation of improved macro certainly for the Upstream business, but it was also premised on a mid-cycle Downstream as well.

因此，人們預計上游業務的宏觀狀況肯定會有所改善，但這也是以下游業務的中期週期為前提的。

So I think if you take into consideration the price environment and you look at the underlying delivery of the company today and the strength of our cash flow today, I think there's a lot of reasons to find confidence in terms of the underlying performance of the company and our ability to continue to grow cash flows out to 2025 and increase shareholder distributions as we indicated back in June.

因此，我認為，如果您考慮到價格環境，並查看公司今天的基本交付情況以及我們今天現金流的實力，我認為有很多理由對公司的基本業績充滿信心正如我們在 6 月份表示的那樣，我們有能力繼續增加現金流至 2025 年並增加股東分配。

Let me also add to that, Christyan, also from my side.

克里斯蒂安，我也從我這邊補充一下。

I'd like to completely endorse that statement, $125 billion of shareholder distributions that we presented as an outlook for '21 to '25, that is still completely intact.

我完全贊同這一說法，我們提出的 1250 億美元股東分配作為 21 至 25 年的前景仍然完好無損。

There's no reason to change any message around that.

沒有理由改變任何與此相關的消息。

And on your second question, Christyan, I -- so we have a portfolio that we manage our LNG business around in terms of the supply of that portfolio and the sales from that portfolio, so -- and I fully expect that the Prelude cargoes going forward will contribute materially in terms of our cash flow growth over the coming years.

關於你的第二個問題，克里斯蒂安，我 - 所以我們有一個投資組合，我們圍繞該投資組合的供應和該投資組合的銷售來管理我們的液化天然氣業務，所以 - 我完全預計 Prelude 貨物將繼續遠期將為我們未來幾年的現金流增長做出重大貢獻。

Next, we'll hear from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們將聽到富國銀行的羅傑·里德 (Roger Read) 的發言。

Roger, we can't hear you.

羅傑，我們聽不到你的聲音。

(Operator Instructions) I'm not getting a response off that line.

（操作員說明）我沒有收到該線路的回复。

Would you like me to move on?

你想讓我繼續前進嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We can come back if Roger becomes available later.

如果羅傑稍後有空的話我們可以回來。

Okay.

好的。

Next, I'll move to Thomas Adolff with Crédit Suisse.

接下來，我將轉到瑞士信貸銀行的托馬斯·阿道夫 (Thomas Adolff)。

Jessica and Ben, 2 questions for me, please, as well.

傑西卡和本，也請問我兩個問題。

Just firstly, just going back to the buybacks.

首先，回到回購。

Before you give any guidance, you run many scenarios, and you do have a lot of built-in contingencies.

在提供任何指導之前，您會運行許多場景，並且確實有很多內置的意外情況。

So say you do lose the $8 billion to $9 billion, if the macro doesn't change, you do have the flexibility to take CapEx down to $24 billion or by $5 billion or even more if you wanted to, without damaging the business.

因此，假設您確實損失了 80 億至 90 億美元，如果宏觀經濟不變，您確實可以靈活地將資本支出降低至 240 億美元或 50 億美元，甚至更多（如果您願意），而不會損害業務。

You do get the disposal proceeds of about $5 billion or more each year.

每年你確實可以獲得約 50 億美元或更多的處置收益。

And to be frank, also, you have the IMO tailwind in refining in 2020.

坦白說，2020 年，IMO 煉油業也將順風順水。

So I was wondering, even with these contingencies or whatever contingency you had in place, is the macro simply just offsetting all of these?

所以我想知道，即使有這些意外情況或任何意外情況，宏觀政策是否只是抵消了所有這些？

And then perhaps, again, going back to the '21 to '25 outlook, can you comment on the embedded contingencies in that plan as well?

也許，再次回到“21 至 25 年的展望”，您能否對該計劃中嵌入的意外事件發表評論？

And then secondly, just on your comment on gearing for 2020.

其次，請談談您對 2020 年負債率的評論。

You talked about gearing likely being higher than the 25%.

您談到負債率可能高於 25%。

What level of buyback is assumed in that analysis?

該分析中假設回購水平如何？

Thank you, Thomas.

謝謝你，托馬斯。

And I think those were 3 questions, but that's okay.

我認為這是三個問題，但沒關係。

On the first one, in terms of share buybacks and levers, et cetera, indeed, we are having to manage for several outcomes that we're looking to achieve.

在第一個方面，在股票回購和槓桿等方面，事實上，我們必須設法實現我們希望實現的幾個結果。

We're looking to grow the company.

我們正在尋求發展公司。

So we need to deploy our capital for the most attractive projects and grow cash flow over time, and we continue to do that.

因此，我們需要將資金部署在最具吸引力的項目上，並隨著時間的推移增加現金流，我們將繼續這樣做。

That's part of what's driving the increased cash flows that you see today.

這是推動您今天看到的現金流增加的部分原因。

And we will continue to invest to ensure the long-term health of the company.

我們將繼續投資以確保公司的長期健康發展。

We want a stronger balance sheet in general.

總體而言，我們希望資產負債表更加強勁。

In particular, if there's headwinds on the horizon from an economic -- macroeconomic perspective, even more so to be having your balance sheet robustness in mind.

特別是，如果從經濟宏觀經濟角度來看，即將出現阻力，那麼更要考慮到資產負債表的穩健性。

And then finally, we're looking to deliver on the world-class investment case in terms of increasing shareholder distributions through time and, ultimately, dividends per share through time.

最後，我們希望在隨著時間的推移增加股東分配以及最終隨著時間的推移增加每股股息方面提供世界級的投資案例。

And so these are all ambitions and objectives we have as a company that we need to manage every quarter.

因此，這些都是我們作為一家公司每個季度都需要管理的雄心和目標。

We consider these things every quarter and consider the outlook going forward.

我們每個季度都會考慮這些事情並考慮未來的前景。

Indeed, we have various levers at hand.

事實上，我們手頭有各種槓桿。

We continue to manage them.

我們繼續管理它們。

As you see, that we've been on the low end of our capital spend.

如您所見，我們的資本支出一直處於低端。

That reflects good discipline, a prudent approach.

這體現了良好的紀律和謹慎的態度。

It also reflects the substantial improvement we've been able to achieve from a capital efficiency perspective.

它還反映了我們從資本效率角度取得的實質性改進。

And that lever will continue to be pulled.

並且該槓桿將繼續被拉動。

We continue to dispose of assets that we think no longer fit our strategy and portfolio.

我們繼續處置我們認為不再適合我們的戰略和投資組合的資產。

We had a number of those close in the quarter that were very important from a strategic perspective, but also importantly, from a cash flow perspective with some $4 billion in divestment proceeds coming in, in the quarter.

我們在本季度完成了許多項目，從戰略角度來看，這些項目非常重要，但從現金流角度來看，這一點也很重要，本季度的撤資收益約為 40 億美元。

So indeed, all of these levers will be pulled, and we may end up in a very positive place at the end of next year because the macro is reasonable and these levers are pulled effectively.

因此，確實，所有這些槓桿都將被拉動，並且我們可能會在明年底處於非常積極的位置，因為宏觀是合理的，並且這些槓桿被有效地拉動。

What we're simply pointing out is that the macro we've experienced in the last couple of quarters, and there's reason to believe that, that could continue into 2020, and if so, the $8 billion to $9 billion is a considerable amount for us to manage in a kind of 5-quarter basis, which is what we have until we get to the end of 2020.

我們只是想指出的是，我們在過去幾個季度所經歷的宏觀經濟形勢，並且有理由相信，這種情況可能會持續到 2020 年，如果是這樣，那麼 80 億至 90 億美元對於我們以 5 個季度為基礎進行管理，這是我們到 2020 年底之前的做法。

I think if our targets weren't so -- or outlook on gearing and share buybacks weren't so specific in terms of 1 quarter at one moment in time, I think this discussion would be less necessary.

我認為，如果我們的目標不是這樣，或者負債率和股票回購的前景在某一時刻的一季度不是那麼具體，我認為這次討論就沒那麼必要了。

We're going to, I think, very well manage the balance of these objectives through time.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將很好地管理這些目標的平衡。

We're -- continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

We're just simply signaling in terms of when we get to the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, if the macro environment remains beneath what was originally premised, that -- that provides some challenge to us.

我們只是簡單地表示，到 2020 年第四季度末時，如果宏觀環境仍然低於最初的前提，那麼這會給我們帶來一些挑戰。

But it's a pacing challenge.

但這是一個節奏挑戰。

It's not an intent challenge.

這不是意圖挑戰。

But it's simply these things will need to be re-paced, and that's what we've always signaled in terms of the conditions in which we would deliver against.

但這只是這些事情需要重新調整節奏，這就是我們一直在我們要應對的條件方面發出的信號。

So in that sense, there's really -- there's no change.

所以從這個意義上說，確實沒有任何變化。

It's just a recognition that the macro environment matters and has an impact now and potentially in 2020.

這只是認識到宏觀環境很重要，並且對現在和 2020 年可能產生影響。

I -- going forward to the 2025 and the outlook we provided in June, again, that was similar price premises.

展望 2025 年，我們在 6 月份提供的前景再次表明，這是類似的價格前提。

So the macro will matter for those numbers as well, and that's always going to be the case.

因此，宏觀因素對這些數字也很重要，而且情況總是如此。

And indeed, if you look at the numbers that we've presented, that's getting organic free cash flow to $35 billion.

事實上，如果你看看我們提供的數字，就會發現有機自由現金流達到 350 億美元。

We're looking to get from $28 billion to $33 billion in the next year.

我們希望明年的收入從 280 億美元增加到 330 億美元。

So if you think about growing the company from $28 billion to $33 billion to $35 billion, I think that's in a reasonable expectation over the next 5, 6 years.

因此，如果你考慮將公司從 280 億美元發展到 330 億美元，再到 350 億美元，我認為在未來 5、6 年裡這是一個合理的預期。

And again, if you think about the shareholder distributions, $125 billion over a 5-year period, that's $25 billion a year, and we're delivering that this year essentially in a reduced macro environment.

再說一次，如果你考慮一下股東分配，5 年期間 1250 億美元，每年就是 250 億美元，而我們今年基本上是在宏觀環境減少的情況下實現這一目標的。

So I think, hopefully, the relationship to where we are today and where we say we're -- we will be in 2025, I think there's a pretty straight line connection between those things that make -- that can provide confidence in terms of why we believe those numbers are achievable going forward.

因此，我認為，希望我們今天所處的位置和我們所說的 2025 年的位置之間的關係，我認為這些事情之間存在相當直線的聯繫，這可以在以下方面提供信心：為什麼我們相信這些數字未來是可以實現的。

On the gearing side, I'll just say that it's a balance between these things, and it's always contingent on the macro environment.

在槓桿方面，我只想說這是這些因素之間的平衡，並且它總是取決於宏觀環境。

What we're signaling again is, in this macro, it will take a little bit more time to get to the 25% number.

我們再次發出的信號是，在這個宏中，需要更多的時間才能達到 25% 的數字。

One more add from me, only it's a small one, which is that yes, of course we do have contingency and margin in the numbers.

我還要補充一點，只是很小的一點，那就是，是的，我們當然在數字上確實有偶發事件和余量。

We always do.

我們總是這樣做。

It's never wise to promise to the limit of your ability.

在你的能力範圍內做出承諾從來都是不明智的。

So rest assured, there is also margin in the $125 billion outlook that we provided, as there was also a margin in the outlook that we provided for next year.

所以請放心，我們提供的 1250 億美元的前景也有餘量，就像我們為明年提供的前景也有餘量一樣。

And the evidence for that is, I think, pretty straightforward.

我認為這方面的證據非常簡單。

We put some quite significant ambitions out there in terms of capital reduction, OpEx reduction, divestments, cash flow growth, et cetera.

我們在資本削減、運營支出削減、撤資、現金流增長等方面提出了一些相當重大的目標。

We have comfortably delivered on all of that, which was essentially, of course, in the knowledge that we had margin to maneuver.

我們輕鬆地實現了所有這些目標，當然，這基本上是因為我們知道我們還有迴旋餘地。

The buyback number we mentioned at the time, for those who have good memories or make good notes, we said we will do $25 billion of buybacks when the oil price gets back in our planning range of $70 to $90.

我們當時提到的回購數字，對於那些記憶力好或記得好的人來說，我們說當油價回到我們70至90美元的計劃區間時，我們將進行250億美元的回購。

That was the statement at the time.

這是當時的聲明。

We have not really been that much in that planning range.

我們實際上並沒有在這個計劃範圍內進行太多。

But nevertheless, with the margin available to us, we have been able to make very significant progress and possibly could conclude the $25 billion outside the planning range for the oil price that we had back in 2016.

但儘管如此，憑藉我們可用的利潤，我們已經能夠取得非常重大的進展，並可能在 2016 年的油價規劃範圍之外達成 250 億美元的目標。

So again, evidence that we do not promise to the limit of our ability.

再次證明我們沒有盡我們的能力做出承諾。

We are prudent when we make outlook statements.

我們在做出展望聲明時非常謹慎。

And that is no different for 2025.

2025 年也是如此。

Next, we'll hear from Lydia Rainforth with Barclays.

接下來，我們將聽取巴克萊銀行 Lydia Rainforth 的發言。

A couple of questions, if I could.

如果可以的話，有幾個問題。

Apologies for going back to the buyback, but on the -- given the change in outlook on the macro side, can I just check, are you going to take CapEx down towards the low end of the range for next year?

很抱歉回到回購，但考慮到宏觀方面前景的變化，我可以檢查一下，您是否打算將明年的資本支出降至區間的低端？

So effectively, if we're looking at changing the buyback program or slowing the buyback program down, do you also look at the balance of slowing down the CapEx side?

因此，如果我們正在考慮改變回購計劃或放慢回購計劃，那麼您是否也會考慮放慢資本支出方面的平衡？

And as you just -- coming back to the previous question around if we're losing $8 billion to $9 billion of cash flow on the macro side, that's effectively all of the buyback you would need to do next year.

正如您剛才所說，回到上一個問題，如果我們在宏觀方面損失 80 億至 90 億美元的現金流，這實際上就是您明年需要進行的全部回購。

So is it that we don't get any buyback just for next year?

那麼明年我們就沒有回購了嗎？

Just to clarify that.

只是為了澄清這一點。

And then, sorry, just one related to the business.

然後，抱歉，只是一個與業務相關的問題。

I know that's 3. Jessica, you talked about 10% higher global nonfuel margin in the retail business.

我知道那是 3。傑西卡，您談到零售業務的全球非燃料利潤率提高了 10%。

What does that actually amount to in terms of millions of dollars?

就數百萬美元而言，這實際上意味著什麼？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Lydia.

謝謝你，莉迪亞。

So in -- so there was -- your first question was asking around the relationship of the capital program against this macro and potential share buyback implications.

因此，您的第一個問題是詢問資本計劃與宏觀和潛在股票回購影響之間的關係。

As I indicated in the last question -- last response to the last question, indeed, we're looking to find the right balance in terms of achieving our objectives of continuing to invest in the company and ensure the long-term health and growth of our cash flows, that's what underpins everything, while continuing to strengthen the balance sheet and increase shareholder distributions.

正如我在最後一個問題中指出的那樣——事實上，我們正​​在尋求在實現繼續投資公司和確保公司長期健康和增長的目標方面找到適當的平衡。我們的現金流是一切的基礎，同時繼續加強資產負債表並增加股東分配。

And we need to find that balance each quarter and, more importantly, through the cycle.

我們需要在每個季度找到這種平衡，更重要的是，在整個週期中找到這種平衡。

What you've seen is in weaker environments, we've been able to, I think, effectively manage our capital at the lower end of our range.

你所看到的是，在較弱的環境中，我認為我們能夠在較低的範圍內有效地管理我們的資本。

That's -- we're at the lower end of the range for 2019.

也就是說，我們處於 2019 年範圍的下限。

For 2020, our range is $24 billion to $29 billion.

2020 年，我們的範圍是 240 億至 290 億美元。

We have -- we always have a certain amount of flexibility and choice through the year that we can manage effectively should things turn suddenly.

我們全年始終擁有一定的靈活性和選擇，如果情況突然發生變化，我們可以有效地進行管理。

But for the most part, we're trying to not be overly responsive to any given one quarter and manage through the cycle to ensure that we're making not value-destructive choices kind of in the last minute.

但在大多數情況下，我們試圖不對任何一個特定季度做出過度反應，並通過整個週期進行管理，以確保我們不會在最後一刻做出破壞價值的選擇。

That's part of -- kind of the nature of the messaging that we're sending today is just signaling prudence that we can see some headwinds and that we want to manage that effectively.

這是我們今天發送的信息的本質之一，只是發出謹慎的信號，表明我們可以看到一些不利因素，並且我們希望有效地對其進行管理。

So we will look at capital, we will look at the pace of the share buybacks and we'll look at the de-gearing and ensure that we're managing all of those to the best of our ability for the right outcome from a value-creation perspective and from a financial framework perspective.

因此，我們將關注資本，我們將關注股票回購的步伐，我們將關注去槓桿化，並確保我們盡最大努力管理所有這些，以實現正確的價值結果-創造角度和財務框架角度。

What that exact balance will be will depend on what we deliver in the quarter and what the outlook looks like at that moment in time.

確切的平衡將取決於我們在本季度交付的成果以及當時的前景。

As I said, we do have some flexibility that we can use throughout the year.

正如我所說，我們確實有一些可以全年使用的靈活性。

In terms of kind of the macro and the numbers, yes, it is $8 billion to $9 billion is the impact in terms of cash flows that we're looking at.

就宏觀和數字而言，是的，我們正在研究的現金流方面的影響是 80 億至 90 億美元。

Again, there's not one-to-one correlation.

同樣，不存在一對一的相關性。

There's a lot of elements in the decision-making process and how we manage that.

決策過程以及我們如何管理這些因素涉及很多因素。

Again, we're looking to fulfill the commitments on the buyback program.

再次，我們希望履行回購計劃的承諾。

And in the right macro conditions, we can make that happen.

在適當的宏觀條件下，我們可以實現這一目標。

If that's not the case, then we're going to have to find the right balance.

如果情況並非如此，那麼我們就必須找到適當的平衡點。

Where that balance will end, we'll have to see at the moment in time because it will be a function of the actual macro we're experiencing and the expectations for the coming quarters.

這種平衡將在哪裡結束，我們必須及時觀察，因為這將取決於我們正在經歷的實際宏觀情況和對未來幾個季度的預期。

In terms of the exact contribution of the retail margin, I'd say that -- let the team get back to -- the important piece here is that we're -- one, we're being responsive to our customers and innovative in our product and service offerings that I think will create differentiated returns for that part of our business, but also create more resilient returns as well as this becomes cash flows that aren't necessarily tied to a commodity.

就零售利潤的確切貢獻而言，我想說的是，讓團隊回到這裡，重要的是我們是一個，我們正在響應客戶並在以下方面進行創新：我認為我們的產品和服務將為我們這部分業務創造差異化的回報，同時也創造更具彈性的回報，這將成為不一定與商品掛鉤的現金流。

So it's part of our overall energy transition story, how do we provide products and services to our customers that they want and need and will create differentiated returns, but also create a different kind of resilient cash flows in our portfolio.

因此，這是我們整體能源轉型故事的一部分，我們如何向客戶提供他們想要和需要的產品和服務，並創造差異化的回報，同時也在我們的投資組合中創造不同類型的彈性現金流。

We expect to grow that materially through the years, but we can let the team let you know more about the specific numbers.

我們預計這些年來會大幅增長，但我們可以讓團隊讓您更多地了解具體數字。

Next, we'll hear from Jason Gammel with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將聽取傑森·加梅爾 (Jason Gammel) 和杰弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的發言。

A couple more on the cash cycle, I'm afraid.

恐怕還有更多關於現金周期的事情。

You've mentioned a couple times, Jessica, about eventually getting back to a growing dividend.

傑西卡，你曾多次提到最終恢復不斷增長的股息。

My recollection is that line of sight on completing the $25 billion buyback and getting the gearing ratio down were essentially necessary before we could expect dividend progression.

我的記憶是，在我們預期股息進展之前，完成 250 億美元的回購和降低資產負債率基本上是必要的。

So does this essentially mean that dividend growth has also been pushed back?

那麼這本質上是否意味著股息增長也被推遲了？

And then second, tactically, why did you maintain the pace of the buyback program for the upcoming 3 months if you're already seeing these headwinds?

其次，從戰術上講，如果您已經看到了這些不利因素，為什麼還要在未來 3 個月內保持回購計劃的步伐？

What led you to not being more prudent today just in terms of that pace?

是什麼導致您今天在速度方面沒有更加謹慎？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Jason.

謝謝你，傑森。

So indeed, we have indicated -- well, first of all, we recognize dividend per share growth is -- matters in terms of our world-class investment case, and that will be part of the investment case going forward.

因此，事實上，我們已經表明——首先，我們認識到每股股息增長對我們的世界級投資案例很重要，這將是未來投資案例的一部分。

And in terms of when that should happen and the best way that should happen, again, to recognize that we are the -- we distributed a substantial amount of cash to our shareholders today, both in the form of dividends and in share buybacks and, indeed, can get to some $25 billion by the end of this year or 10% essentially of our market capitalization.

就何時應該發生以及應該發生的最佳方式而言，再次認識到我們是——我們今天以股息和股票回購的形式向股東分配了大量現金，事實上，到今年年底可以達到約 250 億美元，或者基本上占我們市值的 10%。

So I think we're doing a pretty extraordinary job in terms of returning cash to the shareholders.

因此，我認為我們在向股東返還現金方面做得非常出色。

However, again, dividend per share growth does matter.

然而，每股股息增長確實很重要。

Getting our -- the $25 billion commitment behind us was -- is an important milestone for us.

兌現我們背後的 250 億美元承諾對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。

But also, what's important to us is ensuring that our dividend growth is sustainable and linking dividend per share growth with buybacks to ensure that we retain the right levels of dividends on a go-forward basis.

而且，對我們來說重要的是確保我們的股息增長是可持續的，並將每股股息增長與回購聯繫起來，以確保我們在未來的基礎上保持適當的股息水平。

So that's -- those are the things that we have in mind in terms of the considerations of does dividend per share growth matter?

那麼，這就是我們在考慮每股股息增長是否重要時所考慮的事情？

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

In terms of how that will be worked, we're focusing on completing the buyback program and then looking to grow dividend per share in the coming years.

就如何運作而言，我們的重點是完成回購計劃，然後尋求在未來幾年增加每股股息。

In terms of the decision around the buyback this quarter, I think, again, where we're signaling expectations around what the outlook may look like in 2020.

就本季度回購決定而言，我認為，我們再次表達了對 2020 年前景的預期。

We don't know what will happen in 2020.

我們不知道2020年會發生什麼。

If you just look at the oil prices alone in 2019, we started off at $55.

如果你只看 2019 年的油價，我們的起步價是 55 美元。

We then went up to almost $80 at one moment, then came back down to $60s and at some point in the $50s in the last quarter.

然後我們一度上漲到近 80 美元，然後又回落至 60 美元，最後一個季度的某個時候又跌至 50 美元。

So it seems premature to conclude that this macro environment is destiny.

因此，斷定這種宏觀環境就是命運似乎還為時過早。

So this was just a signal that the macro -- if it does continue, we'll make the pace -- we'll have to slow the pace on the buyback and gearing program, but that's not to say it's inevitable.

因此，這只是一個信號，表明宏觀經濟——如果它繼續下去，我們將加快步伐——我們將不得不放慢回購和負債計劃的步伐，但這並不是說這是不可避免的。

And so I think making a different decision at this moment in time is to say that, that's inevitable.

所以我認為此時做出不同的決定就是說，這是不可避免的。

And again, I'd point back to the quality, high level of cash flow generation of the company that supported the share buybacks this quarter.

再次，我想回顧一下該公司高質量、高水平的現金流生成，這支持了本季度的股票回購。

And so there's a lot of reason for optimism and confidence in the level of cash that the company can generate and its ability to meet these targets through the cycle.

因此，我們有很多理由對公司可以產生的現金水平以及在整個週期內實現這些目標的能力感到樂觀和充滿信心。

This is simply a recognition that the cycle may be at the low end going into 2020.

這只是一種認識，即進入 2020 年周期可能處於低端。

And if so, it will have implications.

如果是這樣，將會產生影響。

And let me add something to it as well, Jason, particularly your second point.

傑森，讓我也補充一些內容，特別是你的第二點。

Why we continue with the buyback program this quarter, simply because we can and we should.

為什麼我們本季度繼續實施回購計劃，只是因為我們可以而且應該這樣做。

Yes?

是的？

It -- let's also be very clear and also a little bit responding to an earlier question from Lydia.

讓我們也非常清楚地回答莉迪亞之前提出的問題。

I also do not want to leave any impression that we somehow have come to the end of the buyback capacity in the company.

我也不想給人留下任何印象，即我們不知何故已經結束了公司的回購能力。

Far from it.

離得很遠。

And as a matter of fact, if I -- if you would -- at this point, if I'm to say, well, abundance of prudence or extreme abundance of prudence had to stop, what to do with the cash?

事實上，如果我——如果你願意的話——在這一點上，如果我說，好吧，必須停止大量的謹慎或極端的謹慎，那麼如何處理現金呢？

At this point in time, it makes eminent sense to buy back our shares.

在這個時候，回購我們的股票是非常有意義的。

Our equity is very, very cheap.

我們的股票非常非常便宜。

That particular funding is very expensive.

這筆特定的資金非常昂貴。

So -- and as a matter of fact, it got cheaper today.

所以——事實上，今天它變得更便宜了。

So we have to just act on this original intent of buying back the $25 billion for as much and as long as we can, and that's what we will be doing.

因此，我們必須按照這個初衷採取行動，即盡可能多地、盡可能長時間地回購這 250 億美元，這就是我們將要做的事情。

And I hope that we will be at $25 billion at the end of next year.

我希望到明年年底我們的收入將達到 250 億美元。

Next, we'll move to Michele Della Vigna with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將轉到高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

It's Michele here.

米歇爾在這裡。

Ben and Jessica, moving away for one moment from the buyback debate.

本和傑西卡暫時離開了回購辯論。

I was wondering, when you look back at the 7 key tools that you have to reduce the net carbon footprint by 2035 by 20% and you look at all of the progress that you've made over the last 2 years, which areas do you find are progressing more slowly than you would have wished and which ones instead are progressing fast and you find have led you to move faster than what you expected in the decarbonization path?

我想知道，當您回顧到 2035 年將淨碳足跡減少 20% 所必須的 7 個關鍵工具，以及您在過去 2 年中取得的所有進展時，您會在哪些領域採取行動發現哪些進展比您希望的要慢，哪些進展快並且您發現導致您在脫碳道路上的行動比您預期的更快？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Michele.

謝謝你，米歇爾。

I appreciate the different profile question and the focus on the net carbon footprint, which is really important to our long-term strategy as a company.

我很欣賞不同的概況問題以及對淨碳足蹟的關注，這對我們作為一家公司的長期戰略非常重要。

I'll start with some of the highlights from the net carbon footprint and that approach and the impact that it's having on our strategy in the company.

我將從淨碳足跡、該方法及其對我們公司戰略的影響的一些亮點開始。

I think some of the highlights would be what we're doing in the nature-based solutions space and how that's playing into not just as a kind of a stand-alone activity in the organization, but how do we embed that in the way we serve our customers in our retail business, which I spoke a little bit about today, but also looking to achieve similar things in different parts of our business and kind of reduce carbon footprints for LNG cargoes, et cetera.

我認為一些亮點是我們在基於自然的解決方案領域所做的事情，以及它如何不僅作為組織中的一種獨立活動發揮作用，而且我們如何將其嵌入到我們的方式中為我們的零售業務中的客戶提供服務，我今天談到了這一點，但也希望在我們業務的不同部分實現類似的目標，並減少液化天然氣貨物的碳足蹟等。

So I think this thinking, this approach is really getting more deeply embedded in the strategy of each of our businesses and is having a positive effect in terms of innovation and creating, as I said, new solutions, new product offerings for our customers.

因此，我認為這種想法、這種方法確實越來越深入地融入到我們每個業務的戰略中，並且在創新和創造方面產生了積極的影響，正如我所說，為我們的客戶提供新的解決方案、新的產品。

I think we've made some really good progress on our power agenda.

我認為我們在權力議程上取得了一些非常好的進展。

I'm pleased with the nature and quality of the acquisitions we've made in terms of securing important positions across the value chain -- power value chain in the U.K., the U.S. and in the Netherlands.

我對我們為確保整個價值鏈（英國、美國和荷蘭的電力價值鏈）的重要地位而進行的收購的性質和質量感到滿意。

I think there's some really interesting opportunities for us.

我認為我們有一些非常有趣的機會。

We still need -- it's still very much early days.

我們仍然需要——現在還為時過早。

But in terms of the types of things we're hoping to secure and the types of positions we were hoping to secure and be able to knit those together in new and innovative ways to create solutions for customers and hopefully create differentiated returns, ultimately, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made over the last couple of years.

但就我們希望獲得的事物類型和我們希望獲得的職位類型而言，我們能夠以新的和創新的方式將它們結合在一起，為客戶創建解決方案，並希望創造差異化的回報，最終，我我們對過去幾年取得的進步感到鼓舞。

I think if there's one area that comes to mind in terms of an area that continues to be hard work, would be probably carbon capture and storage.

我認為，如果我想到一個需要繼續努力工作的領域，那麼很可能就是碳捕獲和封存。

There's a lot of effort going on in the organization to try and bring those types of projects to reality and finding the right regulatory and policy levers being in place to make that happen and allow -- support viable business models is a challenge.

該組織正在付出大量努力來嘗試將這些類型的項目變為現實，並找到適當的監管和政策槓桿來實現這一目標並允許支持可行的商業模式是一項挑戰。

And it's not that we're deterred by a challenge, but I would like for that to be moving more quickly.

這並不是說我們被挑戰嚇倒了，而是我希望這一切能夠進展得更快。

And I think it's an area that, across society and with governments and regulators, we need to continue to focus hard to make that more a reality sooner because it's an important part of the solution not just for Shell, but for the planet.

我認為，整個社會以及政府和監管機構都需要繼續努力關注這一領域，以便更快地實現這一目標，因為這不僅是殼牌解決方案的重要組成部分，也是整個地球解決方案的重要組成部分。

Ben, do you want to add anything?

本，你想補充什麼嗎？

No.

不。

I think you covered it very well.

我認為你覆蓋得很好。

Next, we'll hear from Henry Tarr with Berenberg.

接下來，我們將聽取亨利·塔爾和貝倫貝格的發言。

Just -- so if you were successful in the transfer of rights auction in Brazil, I guess that would bring or require sort of material signature bonuses.

只是 - 因此，如果您在巴西的權利拍賣轉讓中取得成功，我想這將帶來或需要某種實質性的簽名獎金。

I wonder whether that's also got a bearing on the buyback here as an alternative use for capital.

我想知道這是否也對回購作為資本的替代用途產生影響。

Or should I think about that entirely separately?

或者我應該完全單獨考慮這個問題？

And then just secondly, gearing clearly is key.

其次，傳動裝置顯然是關鍵。

You're not too far away from the 25% as we stand, but I wonder whether there's anything that we're missing on equity movements through year-end.

距離我們現在的 25% 已經不遠了，但我想知道我們在年底的股票走勢上是否遺漏了任何東西。

So any view on the longer-term oil price assumptions and potential asset impairments, which could make getting the 25% a little bit more challenging?

那麼，對長期油價假設和潛在資產減值有何看法，這可能會使獲得 25% 的目標變得更具挑戰性？

Or are you focusing purely on the net debt side in your comments today?

或者您今天的評論純粹關注淨債務方面？

Right.

正確的。

Thank you, Henry.

謝謝你，亨利。

On the first question, in terms of the transfer of rights auction in Brazil and what that means from a capital program, I would put that in the, first of all, in the larger discussion around how do we allocate capital and how do we ensure we put our capital where there's the most attractive opportunities.

關於第一個問題，就巴西的權利拍賣轉讓以及這對資本計劃意味著什麼而言，我首先將其放在圍繞我們如何分配資本以及如何確保我們將資金投入到最有吸引力的機會上。

And I think that's the first part of the conversation.

我認為這是談話的第一部分。

We need to ensure that we continue to invest in the long-term health of the company and grow our cash flows.

我們需要確保繼續投資於公司的長期健康發展並增加現金流。

This would be a potential area where we could do that.

這將是我們可以做到這一點的一個潛在領域。

We've got a great position in Brazil.

我們在巴西擁有很好的地位。

We're already a leading player in Brazil.

我們已經是巴西的領先者。

We've got a number of great growth opportunities in the portfolio and in the funnel, and that opportunity will need to compete for capital like any other opportunity.

我們在投資組合和漏斗中擁有許多巨大的增長機會，這些機會需要像任何其他機會一樣爭奪資本。

On the larger question, of course, I've spoken a bit, it is one of the levers.

當然，在更大的問題上，我已經講了一些，它是槓桿之一。

We need to find the right balance between how we allocate our capital between growth, the balance sheet and our shareholders.

我們需要在增長、資產負債表和股東之間分配資本之間找到適當的平衡。

And again, we're continuing to find that balance.

再說一遍，我們正在繼續尋找這種平衡。

We will continue to invest, and I expect in the coming years and growth, and we'll look at that opportunity in the context of its competitiveness versus other options in our portfolio.

我們將繼續投資，我預計未來幾年會出現增長，我們將根據其與我們投資組合中其他選項的競爭力來看待這個機會。

On gearing, indeed, there's -- there are things that are happening on the equity side.

事實上，在負債方面，股權方面正在發生一些事情。

There's things that have happened on the equity side in 2019.

2019年，股權方面發生了一些事情。

It's worth remembering the IFRIC accounting decision at the beginning of the year brought on liabilities of our partners onto our balance sheet that we're not actually liable for that created a 0.4% impact on our gearing rate this year.

值得記住的是，今年年初 IFRIC 的會計決策將我們合作夥伴的負債納入了我們的資產負債表，而我們實際上並不承擔責任，這對我們今年的資產負債率產生了 0.4% 的影響。

In addition, with the declining interest rates, that then causes a recalculation of our pension liabilities.

此外，隨著利率下降，我們的養老金負債將重新計算。

That flows through OCI, and that also has an equity impact.

這些資金流經 OCI，也會對股權產生影響。

And that's some 40 to 50 basis points impact as well from those equity movements.

這些股票變動也帶來了大約 40 到 50 個基點的影響。

So indeed, when you look at gearing in Q3, it went up slightly while net debt went down slightly, and that is because of the movements that happened on the equity side.

因此，事實上，當你看第三季度的負債率時，它略有上升，而淨債務略有下降，這是因為股本方面發生的變動。

Going forward, I am -- I do not have impairments on my mind at the moment.

展望未來，我現在心裡沒有任何障礙。

So that's not a consideration.

所以這不是一個考慮因素。

But indeed, these other things that do happen on the equity side are relevant, and we look at a range of metrics when thinking about the strengths of our balance sheet, gearing being one of them, net debt another, as well as other metrics as well.

但事實上，股本方面確實發生的其他事情是相關的，在考慮資產負債表的優勢時，我們會考慮一系列指標，負債率是其中之一，淨債務是另一個指標，以及其他指標出色地。

Next, we'll hear from Jon Rigby with UBS.

接下來，我們將聽取瑞銀集團 (UBS) 喬恩·里格比 (Jon Rigby) 的發言。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

The first is -- I think you referenced this in your remarks.

第一個是——我認為你在講話中提到了這一點。

But certainly against my numbers, if I was to go back to the start of the year, it looks like the Upstream has been underperforming, I think it did in 2Q.

但當然，根據我的數據，如果我回到今年年初，上游似乎表現不佳，我認為第二季度就是如此。

And it feels like even adjusting for the exploration write-offs, it's underperformed in 3Q.

感覺即使調整了勘探沖銷，它在第三季度的表現也不佳。

And it's a big contributor to your free cash flow numbers for 2020 and beyond.

它對 2020 年及以後的自由現金流量做出了巨大貢獻。

So are you able to just either confirm that, that's true and maybe sort of point out where the problems have been and what -- when they're being addressed or how they're being addressed and the timing on that?

那麼你是否能夠確認這一點，這是真的，也許可以指出問題出在哪里以及是什麼——何時解決或如何解決以及時間安排？

And then the second is, obviously, disposals form a part of the cash inflows that you get.

第二個顯然是，處置構成了您獲得的現金流入的一部分。

Does the reduced macro that you referenced also potentially mean that, that is a source of cash that may dry up over the next 12 to 18 months?

您提到的宏觀調控的縮減是否也可能意味著，現金來源可能在未來 12 至 18 個月內枯竭？

Are you confident that you can keep that sort of disposal pipeline going?

您有信心讓這種處置管道繼續運轉嗎？

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Jon.

謝謝你，喬恩。

On the first question, in terms of the Upstream performance and the strength of it, it has not been achieving its full potential over the last 2 quarters.

關於第一個問題，就上游表現及其實力而言，過去兩個季度尚未充分發揮其潛力。

And I believe I made some statements about that in the speech as well.

我相信我在演講中也就此發表了一些聲明。

The relatively weak performance that we've seen has been in the Gulf of Mexico and, to some extent, in the U.K. as well and a couple of other places.

我們看到的相對疲弱的表現是在墨西哥灣，在某種程度上，在英國和其他幾個地方也是如此。

There's also strengths in the portfolio, so it's not everywhere.

該產品組合也有其優勢，因此並非無處不在。

But unfortunately, it is happening in places where we have relatively high cash margin barrels, so they matter.

但不幸的是，這種情況發生在我們現金利潤相對較高的地方，因此它們很重要。

And I can assure you that it's getting the full attention of leadership because we recognize the value related to that -- those assets.

我可以向您保證，它正在得到領導層的充分關注，因為我們認識到與這些資產相關的價值。

And in fact, we are seeing improvement through -- from Q2 through Q3 coming through.

事實上，我們看到了從第二季度到第三季度的改善。

And we expect that we should be able to address those issues going into 2020.

我們預計到 2020 年我們應該能夠解決這些問題。

We need to do it, but there's the expectation that we can get those assets to the level that they should be operating and generating even more cash for us.

我們需要這樣做，但人們期望我們能夠使這些資產達到其應有的運營水平，並為我們產生更多的現金。

On the divestment side, I think that you were saying disposal, but I believe you're asking about our divestment program and how that's progressing and if the macro environment may have an impact.

在撤資方面，我認為您說的是處置，但我相信您是在問我們的撤資計劃以及該計劃的進展情況以及宏觀環境是否可能產生影響。

Again, we've -- overall, I think -- I don't know if it's -- not necessarily pleasantly surprised.

再說一次，我們——總的來說，我認為——我不知道是否——不一定感到驚喜。

But I think the overall divestment program over the last 3 or 4 years in all kind of macro conditions, I think, has gone very well for us.

但我認為，過去三四年在各種宏觀條件下的整體撤資計劃對我們來說進展順利。

And we continue to deliver against our strategic and portfolio objectives.

我們將繼續實現我們的戰略和產品組合目標。

As mentioned, a number of important assets closed in the quarter, generating some $4 billion in cash.

如前所述，本季度關閉了許多重要資產，產生了約 40 億美元的現金。

So while I don't think we can be completely immune to it, and yes, there should be some impact at some level throughout the cycle over the last few years and in different price environments, we've been able to achieve the ability to sell the right assets and at the right price.

因此，雖然我認為我們不能完全免受它的影響，是的，在過去幾年的整個週期和不同的價格環境中應該會在某種程度上產生一些影響，但我們已經能夠實現以合適的價格出售合適的資產。

So I'm not overly bullish, but I'm not concerned in terms of the nature of the assets that we're selling and our ability to conclude those over the next couple of years.

因此，我並不太樂觀，但我並不擔心我們正在出售的資產的性質以及我們在未來幾年內完成這些資產的能力。

Next, we'll hear from Irene Himona with SocGen.

接下來，我們將聽取法國興業銀行 (SocGen) 的艾琳·希莫納 (Irene Himona) 的發言。

I wanted to ask for an update, if possible, on the auction of the Dutch renewables utility, Eneco.

如果可能的話，我想詢問荷蘭可再生能源公用事業公司 Eneco 拍賣的最新情況。

Where are you in the time line?

你在時間線上的哪個位置？

And should you be successful, do we think of this as part of your CapEx?

如果您成功了，我們是否會將其視為您資本支出的一部分？

Or is your thinking around the process influenced by the current macro situation?

或者您對這一過程的思考是否受到當前宏觀形勢的影響？

And then my second question, can you give us a sense of what you're seeing in your Asian businesses?

然後我的第二個問題，您能給我們介紹一下您在亞洲業務中看到的情況嗎？

You have extensive operations out there.

你們在那裡有廣泛的業務。

What does the macro look like in the region, please?

請問該地區的宏觀情況如何？

Right.

正確的。

Thank you, Irene.

謝謝你，艾琳。

So the Eneco process is -- bids are due in the coming week, so that's in terms -- from a process perspective.

因此，從流程的角度來看，Eneco 流程是——投標將在下周到期，所以這是從流程角度來看的。

Of course, we don't comment on any of these processes for a variety of reasons, commercially sensitive, et cetera.

當然，出於商業敏感等各種原因，我們不會對任何這些流程發表評論。

So I won't speak specifically to it.

所以我就不具體講了。

What I would say is that, yes, and should there be an acquisition, that would be part of our capital program.

我想說的是，是的，如果有收購，那將是我們資本計劃的一部分。

And of course, we're taking into consideration, as we do whether it's the transfer of rights or any other capital choice, that the first port of call is, is it the right strategic choice for us?

當然，正如我們所做的那樣，無論是權利轉讓還是任何其他資本選擇，我們首先要考慮的是，這對我們來說是正確的戰略選擇嗎？

Does it have the right value?

它有正確的價值嗎？

Risk proposition?

風險主張？

And then, of course, we do look at kind of affordability, but we do think about affordability kind of over a longer time period.

當然，我們確實會考慮某種負擔能力，但我們確實會考慮較長時期內的負擔能力。

If there's something that is of strategic and portfolio priority for us and the right value and risk proposition, I think we need to consider those things seriously.

如果有什麼對我們來說具有戰略和投資組合優先級以及正確的價值和風險主張，我認為我們需要認真考慮這些事情。

But of course, that's all within the context of everything we've said before, which is we remain committed in terms of our organic free cash flow outlooks, about our share buybacks and our gearing.

但當然，這一切都在我們之前所說的一切範圍內，即我們仍然致力於我們的有機自由現金流前景、我們的股票回購和我們的負債率。

So all of those things remain true.

所以所有這些事情仍然是正確的。

And anything that we're looking to do from a strategic perspective needs to fit longer term in that context.

我們從戰略角度希望做的任何事情都需要適應這種背景的長期發展。

For the Asian business, I'd say that overall, where we're exposed or where we see kind of our activities in Asia, certainly, from a Downstream perspective and also from an LNG perspective, I'd say, in general, things are relatively strong, but some signals, as I believe I mentioned earlier, in terms of what we're seeing in the Chemicals market and overall kind of demand levels and volume implications and price margin implications associated with softening demand, would be some of the trends that we're seeing and certainly playing into our mind when thinking about the overall health of the economy and how things may look in 2020.

對於亞洲業務，我想說的是，總的來說，我們在亞洲的業務暴露或我們在亞洲的活動，當然，從下游的角度以及液化天然氣的角度來看，我想說，總的來說，事情相對較強，但正如我之前提到的，就我們在化學品市場中看到的情況以及與需求疲軟相關的總體需求水平、數量影響和價格利潤率影響而言，一些信號將是一些信號在思考經濟的整體健康狀況以及 2020 年的情況時，我們所看到的趨勢肯定會在我們的腦海中浮現。

Again, it's not a foregone conclusion, but there's some signals that there's some softening happening, I think, as an outcome of some of the trade wars, and as I mentioned earlier, a general sense of a softening from a GDP growth perspective.

再說一次，這不是一個既定的結論，但有一些信號表明，我認為，由於一些貿易戰的結果，經濟正在出現一些軟化，正如我之前提到的，從 GDP 增長的角度來看，普遍感覺出現了軟化。

And we're certainly seeing some signals of that in parts of our portfolio.

我們確實在我們的部分投資組合中看到了一些這樣的信號。

Next, we'll move to Dan Boyd with BMO Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將請來 BMO 資本市場部的丹·博伊德 (Dan Boyd)。

Jessica, I had a question on the normalized organic free cash flow that you posted in the slides.

傑西卡，我對您在幻燈片中發布的標準化有機自由現金流有疑問。

I think it's Slide 10.

我認為是幻燈片 10。

And I noticed that it came down about $3 billion versus the 1Q and 2Q run rate.

我注意到，與第一季度和第二季度的運行率相比，它下降了約 30 億美元。

So I just wanted to confirm, is that primarily due to higher organic CapEx?

所以我只是想確認一下，這主要是由於有機資本支出較高嗎？

And just wanted to get your thoughts on the outlook there over the next couple of quarters, especially as CapEx might be increasing.

只是想了解您對未來幾個季度前景的看法，特別是在資本支出可能增加的情況下。

Are there other offsets that could either keep that number at the $21 billion or increase it?

是否有其他抵消措施可以使這一數字保持在 210 億美元或增加？

And then I just wanted to confirm on the macro sort of impact of, I think, the $8 billion to $9 billion, is that based on the current spot prices?

然後我只是想確認 80 億至 90 億美元的宏觀影響是基於當前的現貨價格嗎？

Or is that based on the forward curve?

還是基於遠期曲線？

Okay.

好的。

So first question, in terms of the outlook, I want to make sure I understood the question.

第一個問題，就前景而言，我想確保我理解這個問題。

So it's on a normalized basis, but there's a question around the -- whether capital was contributing to that.

所以這是在正常化的基礎上，但有一個問題——資本是否對此做出了貢獻。

And it's not a capital story.

這不是一個資本故事。

So this is just a 4-quarter rolling basis.

所以這只是 4 個季度的滾動基礎。

I think if you -- it's relatively straightforward if you look at the numbers in terms of how you get to that number.

我認為，如果你從如何得到這個數字的角度來看待這些數字，那就相對簡單了。

There's nothing unusual happening from the capital side, and as we already -- or as I indicated in the speech, that we're going to end at the lower end of the capital for the year.

首都方面沒有發生任何異常情況，正如我們已經——或者正如我在演講中指出的那樣，我們將以今年首都的較低水平結束。

So it's not a capital story.

所以這不是一個資本故事。

On your second question, in terms of the macro environment.

關於第二個問題，從宏觀環境來看。

What that's reflecting is what we're experiencing in 2019 on the Downstream side, particularly in the second quarter, across both the refining and the chemicals sector.

這反映了我們在 2019 年下游方面所經歷的情況，尤其是第二季度，煉油和化工行業。

And in the third quarter, some softness in the refining (inaudible) a bit of an improvement but still relatively soft; and certainly, on the chemicals side, particularly soft.

在第三季度，精煉中的一些軟性（聽不清）有所改善，但仍然相對軟弱；當然，在化學品方面，特別柔軟。

So that's what we're experiencing today in the Downstream business.

這就是我們今天在下游業務中所經歷的情況。

On the Upstream business, it's looking at the oil price of [62 4] for the quarter and also, particularly for the Upstream business, the gas and NGL realized prices in places like North America and in Europe playing through into the numbers.

在上游業務方面，它關注的是本季度的油價[62 4]，而且，特別是對於上游業務，天然氣和液化天然氣在北美和歐洲等地的實現價格也反映在數字中。

So that's the macro we're experiencing today.

這就是我們今天所經歷的宏觀。

And then if you think about, is that going to continue through 2020, if you bring that all together and assume that that's what the world looks like more or less, then you have a cumulative impact of some $8 billion to $9 billion on our cash flow.

然後如果你想一想，這種情況是否會持續到 2020 年，如果你把所有這些放在一起並假設這或多或少就是世界的樣子，那麼你會對我們的現金產生約 80 億至 90 億美元的累積影響流動。

Okay.

好的。

And make sure I understood, so I thought that, that $21 billion on the slide was already normalized for the price changes.

確保我理解，所以我認為幻燈片上的 210 億美元已經因價格變化而正常化了。

And so I was assuming there was something operationally that drove the decline from $24 billion to $21 billion, but you're saying there's actually -- the macro conditions are the primary contributor of that sequential decline in the rolling numbers?

因此，我假設有一些操作性因素導致滾動數字從 240 億美元下降到 210 億美元，但您是說實際上宏觀條件是導致滾動數字連續下降的主要因素？

So I'm not sure -- we may not be fully understanding your question, and so IR can follow up with you.

所以我不確定 - 我們可能沒有完全理解您的問題，因此 IR 可以與您聯繫。

Prices are normalized in the 4-quarter rolling basis to be at the RT 60 -- RT '16 $60 number.

價格在 4 季度滾動基礎上標準化為 RT 60 - RT '16 60 美元。

So that can cause depending on what the cash flow was based on in a given quarter.

因此，這可能取決於特定季度現金流量的基礎。

So if it was above -- let's say, if it was at $68 or $69 in a given quarter, then there would be a price adjustment down and the inverse as well.

因此，如果價格高於——比方說，如果某個季度的價格為 68 美元或 69 美元，那麼價格就會下調，反之亦然。

If in a given quarter, the amounts were below the RT '16 $60, then you would have an adjustment up, so that it's all normalized to that RT '16 $60.

如果在給定季度中，金額低於 RT '16 $60，那麼您將進行向上調整，以便全部標準化為 RT '16 $60。

So that's what's underpinning the numbers.

這就是這些數字的基礎。

But if you need further guidance in terms of how we've made the calculation, then we'll have IR follow up with you.

但如果您需要有關我們如何進行計算的進一步指導，那麼我們將讓 IR 與您聯繫。

Next, we'll hear from Martijn Rats with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將聆聽 Martijn Rats 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Jessica, it's Martijn here.

傑西卡，我是馬丁。

I just wanted to ask you sort of 2 things.

我只是想問你兩件事。

First of all, I briefly wanted to revisit the math on the sort of $8 billion to $9 billion indication that you gave.

首先，我想簡單地回顧一下您給出的 80 億至 90 億美元指示的數學計算。

So if I can sort of mention a few numbers.

所以我可以提幾個數字。

The sort of my understanding of it is that -- so Shell's sort of planning assumption is free cash flow of $28 billion to $33 billion next year.

我對此的理解是——所以殼牌的規劃假設是明年自由現金流為 280 億美元至 330 億美元。

So if you take, say, the midpoint of that, take $30 billion, if you then subtract sort of interest payments, $4 billion to $5 billion, you end up with $26 billion.

因此，如果你取中間值，即 300 億美元，然後減去利息支付，40 億至 50 億美元，最終會得到 260 億美元。

If then commodity prices and Downstream margins do not improve, we can take away the other $8 billion to $9 billion, which then ends up with about sort of $17 billion of free cash flow after interest payments versus a dividend that is [15].

如果大宗商品價格和下游利潤沒有改善，我們可以拿走另外 80 億至 90 億美元，然後在支付利息和股息後，最終得到約 170 億美元的自由現金流[15]。

And I can totally understand that in those -- in that scenario, you would not be keen to do any buybacks.

我完全可以理解，在那種情況下，你不會熱衷於進行任何回購。

And I was wondering if this is sort of the math that you're trying to sort of steer us towards.

我想知道這是否是您試圖引導我們走向的數學。

The second point that I wanted to ask is about the sort of replicability of the trading gains.

我想問的第二點是關於交易收益的可複制性。

Because when we think trading, we typically think just volatile and hard to replicate, but there might be some structural elements to it around sort of IMO or some LNG price, sort of differentials that are sort of interesting.

因為當我們考慮交易時，我們通常認為波動性很大且難以復制，但它可能存在一些圍繞 IMO 或某些液化天然氣價格的結構性因素，以及一些有趣的差異。

Could you sort of give any hint on how you see the sort of trading and optimization sort of contribution developing into the fourth quarter and the early parts of next year?

您能否透露一下您如何看待第四季度和明年年初的交易和優化貢獻？

Good.

好的。

Thank you, Martijn.

謝謝你，馬丁。

So in terms of the math, of course, we're looking at this on a 5-quarter basis in terms of the total cash we're going to generate when thinking about getting to the end of 2020.

因此，就數學而言，當然，我們會以 5 個季度為基礎，考慮到 2020 年底時我們將產生的現金總額。

So that's just in terms of how we're thinking about the numbers.

這只是我們對數字的看法。

We end up in a slightly, I would say, somewhat different place.

我想說，我們最終到達了一個稍微不同的地方。

But in terms of the nature of the thinking, big picture, I think that's -- it's not unreasonable.

但就思維的本質、大局而​​言，我認為這並非不合理。

But in terms of the actual end position on a go-forward basis in terms of where we are today and where we would like to end, I'd say the numbers are slightly different.

但就我們今天所處的位置和我們想要結束的位置而言，就未來的實際最終位置而言，我想說這些數字略有不同。

The important piece is, again, wanting the focus to be on a couple of things.

再次強調，重要的是希望重點關注幾件事。

One, recognizing the strength of our underlying cash flow of the company, of $6.6 billion in a relatively weak quarter for us, both on the Upstream side and the Downstream side.

第一，認識到公司基礎現金流的實力，在上游和下游相對疲軟的季度中達到 66 億美元。

So to get to the $28 billion to $30 billion is a reasonable expectation in the right macro.

因此，在正確的宏觀環境下，達到 280 億至 300 億美元是一個合理的預期。

And again, with the Appo and Prelude projects ramping up and continued support of the Marketing business growth, that the underlying cash flow remains -- should have confidence in terms of the growth of that cash flow.

再說一遍，隨著 Appo 和 Prelude 項目的推進以及對營銷業務增長的持續支持，潛在的現金流依然存在——應該對現金流的增長充滿信心。

We then need to ensure that we're strengthening the balance sheet.

然後我們需要確保加強資產負債表。

That will be a priority for us going through 2020.

這將是我們 2020 年的首要任務。

And in the right macro environment, our ability to continue at the pace that we're at is very possible.

在合適的宏觀環境下，我們很有可能繼續保持目前的步伐。

And the challenge here is, if the macro is exactly where it is today or worse, the pace of getting both the gearing and the share buyback exactly where we would like it to be in the fourth quarter of 2020 is challenged.

這裡的挑戰是，如果宏觀經濟狀況完全符合今天的情況或更糟，那麼在 2020 年第四季度使負債率和股票回購完全達到我們希望的水平的速度就會受到挑戰。

And this is just a pacing issue and a macro issue.

而這只是一個節奏問題和宏觀問題。

Depending on where the macro is, that may or may not be an issue.

根據宏的位置，這可能是也可能不是問題。

If it's not where it needs to be, then we're going to shift that out past 2020.

如果它不是需要的位置，那麼我們將在 2020 年之後將其移出。

And if it is where it needs to be, then hopefully that isn't the case for the share buybacks.

如果這是需要的，那麼希望股票回購不會出現這種情況。

On the trading side, in terms of structural -- a couple of things.

在交易方面，就結構而言，有幾件事。

I think it's important to reflect on the chart in the -- that I referred to earlier in my speech in terms of the differential that you're seeing between JCC and JKM.

我認為重要的是要反思一下我之前在演講中提到的 JCC 和 JKM 之間的差異的圖表。

I think that is relatively unique.

我認為這是比較獨特的。

You see that over time.

隨著時間的推移你會看到這一點。

That widened considerably in the third quarter.

第三季度這一數字大幅擴大。

That definitely contributed to the strong results.

這無疑促成了強勁的業績。

And in that sense, that is not structural.

從這個意義上說，這不是結構性的。

That is a moment in time in terms of what the market is doing.

就市場正在發生的事情而言，這是一個及時的時刻。

What is structural is the strength of our portfolio; the strength of the contractual underpinnings that we have in that portfolio that gives us some ability to optimize; and of course the trading capability itself, which is a strength that we continue to leverage.

結構性的是我們投資組合的實力；我們在該投資組合中擁有的合同基礎的強度使我們有一定的優化能力；當然還有交易能力本身，這是我們繼續利用的優勢。

I would look at Integrated Gas and -- kind of on a rolling 4-quarter basis to get a sense of -- that's kind of normalized Integrated Gas view going into 2020.

我會關注綜合天然氣——以滾動的 4 個季度為基礎來了解——這是進入 2020 年的標準化綜合天然氣觀點。

Q3 was an exceptional quarter.

第三季度是一個特殊的季度。

I certainly hope we have more quarters like that, but I think there was relatively unique market conditions that supported that outcome.

我當然希望我們有更多這樣的季度，但我認為有相對獨特的市場條件支持了這一結果。

And of course, the team did a great job as well.

當然，團隊也做得很好。

Things like IMO, I think you referenced as well.

像 IMO 這樣的事情，我想你也提到過。

In terms of what's structural around that, I think that remains to be seen.

就其結構而言，我認為還有待觀察。

I think there's various things that are going on in the market with the change in the fuel standards and other things happening in both the crude and product market that, again, our trading organization was able to help optimize and benefit from.

我認為隨著燃料標準的變化以及原油和產品市場上發生的其他事情，市場上正在發生各種各樣的事情，我們的貿易組織再次能夠幫助優化並從中受益。

Again, I would look at a kind of a 4-quarter rolling basis when thinking about 2020, and I wouldn't necessarily say that everything that was achieved in the third quarter is necessarily structural going into 2020.

同樣，在考慮 2020 年時，我會考慮一種 4 季度滾動基礎，我不一定會說第三季度取得的所有成就都必然是 2020 年的結構性成果。

Martijn, just one point on the math because I know you would like to replicate what we said.

Martijn，只是關於數學的一點，因為我知道你想複製我們所說的內容。

So the $8 billion to $9 billion that I mentioned is $8 billion to $9 billion over the period '19 and '20.

所以我提到的80億到90億美元是19年和20年期間的80億到90億美元。

If you just look at '19, the first half of this year, you could argue, to all intents and purposes, would be at sort of the cycle average conditions that we would expect and reference that.

如果你只看 19 年上半年，你可能會說，無​​論出於何種意圖和目的，這將是我們所期望和參考的周期平均條件。

But therefore, the $8 billion to $9 billion is really the cash that we expect to lose if nothing would change in Q2 -- sorry, Q3, 4 and the entire next year.

但因此，如果第二季度沒有任何變化，80 億到 90 億美元實際上是我們預計會損失的現金——對不起，第三季度、第四季度以及整個明年。

So that's a 6 quarter number that we are talking about here.

這就是我們在這裡討論的 6 個季度的數字。

So if you subtract that number just from next year, I think you would be overdoing it a little bit.

因此，如果你從明年減去這個數字，我認為你會做得有點過頭了。

Next, we'll move to Peter Low with Redburn.

接下來，我們將與雷德伯恩一起請彼得·洛。

The first was just a follow-up.

第一個只是後續。

Can you help us better understand which takes precedence in your financial framework, the 25% gearing target or delivery of the $25 billion buyback?

您能否幫助我們更好地了解您的財務框架中哪一個優先，是 25% 的負債目標還是 250 億美元的回購？

So for example, would you be comfortable letting gearing stay at current levels, which is not that high, if it allowed you to complete the 2020 buyback on time?

舉例來說，如果您能夠按時完成 2020 年的回購，您是否願意讓負債率保持在當前水平（目前的水平並不算高）？

And then secondly, just on the $5 billion of incremental cash flow from new projects by the end of 2020, are you able to give us some more detail on some of the larger components of that, beyond Appomattox and Prelude, which have been well flagged?

其次，關於到 2020 年底新項目帶來的 50 億美元的增量現金流，除了 Appomattox 和 Prelude 之外，您能否為我們提供一些更大的組成部分的更多細節，這些組件已經被很好地標記了？

Right.

正確的。

So in terms of the kind of precedence -- or preference, this is always a bit of a challenge, of course, because we want to achieve kind of all 3 of our objectives that we've spoken to a few times today, which is to strengthen the balance sheet, increase shareholder distributions, reduce dividends -- shareholding count and grow the company.

因此，就優先順序或偏好而言，這當然總是有點挑戰，因為我們希望實現我們今天多次談到的所有 3 個目標，即強化資產負債表，增加股東分配，減少股息——持股數量並發展公司。

So all of those things we're looking to achieve through the cycle.

因此，我們希望通過這個週期實現所有這些目標。

In terms of how we've framed our financial framework and our priorities, we've talked about strengthening the balance sheet.

就我們如何構建財務框架和優先事項而言，我們討論了加強資產負債表。

That remains a priority for us, and we've made good progress over the last couple of years.

這仍然是我們的首要任務，並且我們在過去幾年中取得了良好進展。

And we'll look to continue to make progress to get down to the 25%.

我們將繼續努力，爭取將這一比例降至 25%。

What you saw in 2019 was that the gearing actually went up a bit from 2018, and that was okay.

你在 2019 年看到的是，負債率實際上比 2018 年有所上升，這沒關係。

We ended 2018 relatively low because of the kind of windfall from working capital as prices went to [55].

我們在 2018 年結束時的業績相對較低，因為隨著價格上漲至 [55]，營運資金帶來了意外之財。

So we fully expected it to go up a bit in 2019 and then continue the trajectory down towards the end of '19 going into 2020.

因此，我們完全預計它會在 2019 年有所上升，然後在 19 年底進入 2020 年繼續下降。

And that's important for us in terms of strengthening the balance sheet.

就加強資產負債表而言，這對我們很重要。

But it doesn't need to be a specific number at a specific moment in time.

但它不需要是特定時刻的特定數字。

We really need to manage this through the cycle through quarters and manage towards a trajectory.

我們確實需要在整個季度的周期中對此進行管理，並朝著一個軌跡進行管理。

And as we do that, each quarter, we'll consider kind of the current environment, we'll consider the most recent view of the outlook when ensuring we're finding the right balance between those objectives through time.

當我們這樣做時，每個季度，我們都會考慮當前的環境，我們會考慮對前景的最新看法，同時確保我們在這些目標之間找到適當的平衡。

But at the end of this, in the next 1 to 2 years, we should end up in a place where we're achieving -- with the right macro conditions, we're achieving the gearing balance that we hope to achieve of 25% that we have, the share buybacks completed at $25 billion and we continue to invest in the long-term health of the company and grow cash flows.

但最終，在未來 1 到 2 年內，我們應該最終達到我們正在實現的目標——在適當的宏觀條件下，我們將實現我們希望實現的 25% 的負債平衡我們已經完成了 250 億美元的股票回購，我們將繼續投資於公司的長期健康發展並增加現金流。

In terms of the $5 billion in projects, the important contributors are Prelude and Appomattox, as you've referenced.

正如您提到的，就 50 億美元的項目而言，重要的貢獻者是 Prelude 和 Appomattox。

In addition, we have a number of other assets that are continuing to ramp up.

此外，我們還有許多其他資產正在持續增加。

Some of our assets in Brazil are still ramping up from the FPSOs that have come on stream, and there's another further one that's going to come onstream as well.

我們在巴西的一些資產仍在從已投產的 FPSO 中增加，還有另一項資產也即將投產。

I talked about some of the other projects that came on -- that started up in the quarter in Nigeria, Malaysia.

我談到了本季度在尼日利亞和馬來西亞啟動的其他一些項目。

Those will also contribute to increased cash flow.

這些也將有助於增加現金流。

In our Downstream business, we started up some of the projects in our Chemicals business in the last year.

在我們的下游業務中，我們去年啟動了化學品業務的一些項目。

There's some ramp-up from those assets as well.

這些資產也有一些增長。

And of course, our Marketing business, which we're continuing to grow, where you saw, between 2018 and 2019, our Marketing business grew from $1 billion to $1.5 billion in earnings, just to give a sense of the growth potential in that business as well.

當然，我們的營銷業務正在持續增長，您可以看到，在 2018 年至 2019 年間，我們的營銷業務收入從 10 億美元增長到 15 億美元，這只是為了讓大家了解該業務的增長潛力以及。

Next, we'll move to Christopher Kuplent with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將邀請美國銀行的克里斯托弗·庫普倫特 (Christopher Kuplent)。

Jessica, Ben, please help me with my confused state because, in the end, I'm hearing that share buyback announcements are made on a quarterly basis.

傑西卡，本，請幫助我解決我的困惑，因為最後，我聽說股票回購公告是按季度發布的。

At the same time, I understand this is all about a glide path.

同時，我明白這都是關於滑行路徑的。

So if you're giving us a warning about -- at current conditions, your 2020 targets being undershot, why are you not stopping or reducing buybacks when we are seeing those spot conditions before you see additional up to $5 billion cash flow contributions from projects next year or on the way to 2020?

因此，如果您向我們發出警告——在目前的情況下，您的 2020 年目標未實現，那麼當我們看到這些現貨情況時，您為什麼不停止或減少回購，然後您會看到項目帶來高達 50 億美元的額外現金流貢獻明年還是即將到 2020 年？

So I can't quite marry that together.

所以我不能完全把它們結合在一起。

That's question number one.

這是第一個問題。

And question number two, I welcome the trading statement that you issued, but I'd just like to understand a little bit what you think consensus was missing.

第二個問題，我歡迎您發布的交易聲明，但我想了解一下您認為缺少共識的地方。

And the strong oil products trading results that you reported, whether you have known about them, whether you would have made them definitely visible on that trading statement if you had another opportunity.

以及您報告的強勁石油產品交易結果，無論您是否了解它們，如果您有其他機會，您是否會讓它們在交易報表上明確可見。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Christopher.

謝謝你，克里斯托弗。

On the first question, in terms of trying to reconcile potentially different perspectives in your mind and the quarterly basis and the glide path, I think that's right.

關於第一個問題，就試圖調和您心中可能存在的不同觀點以及季度基礎和下滑路徑而言，我認為這是正確的。

So we are, every quarter, making a choice in terms of the amount of the share buyback.

因此，我們每個季度都會根據股票回購的金額做出選擇。

And we do that in the context of where the business sits today and where we want the business to sit going forward and -- particularly with respect to very specific targets that we set for 2020.

我們這樣做的背景是業務目前所處的位置以及我們希望業務未來所處的位置，尤其是我們為 2020 年設定的非常具體的目標。

For me, there is -- obviously, there's a coherence in what we're doing.

對我來說，顯然，我們所做的事情是一致的。

It is a glide path.

這是一條滑行路徑。

It is a trajectory.

這是一個軌跡。

We look at the strength of our cash flow today, the strength of our balance sheet today and our expectations of how our cash flow is going to grow over the coming year and, based on that view, make choices around what is the right allocation for our capital program, for our balance sheet and for the share buybacks.

我們著眼於今天現金流的實力、今天資產負債表的實力以及我們對未來一年現金流將如何增長的預期，並根據這一觀點，圍繞什麼是正確的分配做出選擇我們的資本計劃，用於我們的資產負債表和股票回購。

As we've said a number of times, what we're signaling today is somewhat a weak macro that's affected our results in 2019.

正如我們多次說過的，我們今天發出的信號是宏觀經濟疲軟，影響了我們 2019 年的業績。

And if that macro continues, then that would have an impact on the pace of how we're doing the de-gearing and the share buybacks.

如果這種宏觀經濟持續下去，那麼這將會對我們去槓桿化和股票回購的步伐產生影響。

Nothing more, nothing less.

不多不少。

There is -- the health of those cash flows are very strong.

這些現金流的健康狀況非常強勁。

The health of the balance sheet is strong.

資產負債表健康狀況良好。

But it's simply recognizing that there are conditions outside of our control that could have an impact on our cash flow.

但這只是認識到有些我們無法控制的情況可能會影響我們的現金流。

And if that's the case, then we'll potentially make different choices as that emerges.

如果是這樣的話，那麼我們可能會做出不同的選擇。

But we don't know if that will emerge, just in the same way that we've seen very different environments both in the Downstream and the Upstream business in 2019 alone.

但我們不知道這種情況是否會出現，就像我們僅在 2019 年就在下游和上游業務中看到的非常不同的環境一樣。

So to conclude that that's inevitable at this moment in time, I don't think is necessary.

因此，我認為目前沒有必要得出這樣的結論：這是不可避免的。

But to be transparent in terms of how our views are evolving with the conditions that we're experiencing and the signals that we're seeing in our businesses, we felt it was appropriate and prudent to mark that these things are affecting our business today, could potentially affect them in the future, and therefore may lead us to make different conclusions in terms of how that allocation happens in 2020.

但為了透明地了解我們的觀點如何隨著我們正在經歷的條件和我們在業務中看到的信號而演變，我們認為標記這些事情正在影響我們今天的業務是適當和謹慎的，可能會在未來影響它們，因此可能導致我們對 2020 年的分配方式做出不同的結論。

On the trading statement, hopefully you found that useful.

希望您發現交易聲明很有用。

And the objective really with that was to try and provide increased insight and transparency in terms of things that were happening in the quarter, that were observable and able to share with the market that would be difficult for the market to see on their own.

這樣做的真正目標是嘗試對本季度發生的事情提供更多的洞察力和透明度，這些事情是可觀察的，並且能夠與市場分享，而市場自己很難看到這些事情。

So things like the well write-off in Kazakhstan is a good example of that and providing that information and also seeing how the trading business is affecting both IG and the Downstream business.

因此，哈薩克斯坦的油井註銷就是一個很好的例子，提供這些信息並了解貿易業務如何影響 IG 和下游業務。

Again, that may be difficult to observe in sharing that with the market, so that there is a higher -- a better understanding to enable perhaps better insight when assessing and determining the consensus for the company.

同樣，在與市場分享時可能很難觀察到這一點，因此在評估和確定公司的共識時可能會有更好的理解，從而可能獲得更好的洞察力。

So I'm pleased that we made that step in the quarter.

所以我很高興我們在本季度邁出了這一步。

I think it's been helpful for the market.

我認為這對市場有幫助。

And I expect we're going to continue to do that and look to improve and see where further potential disclosure is helpful or if there's some way we need to modify it.

我希望我們將繼續這樣做，並尋求改進，看看進一步的潛在披露在哪裡有幫助，或者我們是否需要通過某種方式對其進行修改。

But the idea is to continue to support the market and understanding where the company stands and what to expect from the company.

但我們的想法是繼續支持市場並了解公司的現狀以及對公司的期望。

And Chris, just to help a little bit more with what yourself said was a confused state.

克里斯，只是想為您所說的困惑狀態提供更多幫助。

It's actually quite straightforward.

實際上非常簡單。

We -- if you look at our results and if you look at our track record and if you do sort of the rule-of-thumb calculations that no doubt many of you are doing, you could also make the case that we should not make any statement, that we just carry on as we are because we have the capacity to do so.

我們——如果你看看我們的結果，如果你看看我們的業績記錄，如果你做了一些毫無疑問你們很多人都在做的經驗法則計算，你也可以證明我們不應該這樣做任何聲明，我們只是繼續這樣做，因為我們有能力這樣做。

And there is, in that sense, no real issue.

從這個意義上說，不存在真正的問題。

And the fact that we say, listen, hold on, the macro does actually have an effect on our cash flow is obviously a statement of the obvious.

事實上，我們說，聽著，等等，宏觀經濟確實對我們的現金流產生了影響，這顯然是一個顯而易見的陳述。

So we could also have said, well, that's hopefully all understood, isn't it?

所以我們也可以說，好吧，希望大家都能理解，不是嗎？

But not making a statement of the obvious is also making a statement.

但不對顯而易見的事情做出聲明也是一種聲明。

And I think if some -- in the course of 2020, we would face a macro that would be as bad or even worse than it is today, and at that point in time, we would say, well, obviously I hope it doesn't come as a surprise, we also wouldn't want to be faced with the situation.

我認為，如果在 2020 年期間，我們將面臨一個與今天一樣糟糕甚至更糟糕的宏觀形勢，到那時，我們會說，好吧，顯然我希望情況不會如此。不足為奇，我們也不想面對這種情況。

As you said, why couldn't you see this coming?

正如你所說，為什麼你看不到這一點？

Why didn't you make a statement of the obvious a little bit earlier on?

你為什麼不早點聲明一些顯而易見的事情呢？

And that's essentially what we are doing.

這本質上就是我們正在做的事情。

So we are not flagging anything.

所以我們不會標記任何東西。

Again, no difference of intent.

再說一遍，沒有任何意圖差異。

We are making a statement of the obvious at this point in time, which I think is what we should be doing as responsible communicators with the market.

我們此時此刻正在做出顯而易見的聲明，我認為這是我們作為負責任的市場溝通者應該做的事情。

Our final question today will be from Lucas Herrmann with Exane.

今天我們的最後一個問題將由 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann 提出。

Lucas Herrmann;Exane;Analyst^ Look, one simple one that I wanted to ask.

Lucas Herrmann；Exane；分析師^ 看，我想問一個簡單的問題。

European gas production, there are lots of moving parts, whether it's Norwegian shut-ins or issues in Groningen or, by the sound of things, issues you may be having in the U.K. But can you just give us some idea as to why the number was as soft as it was this quarter?

歐洲的天然氣生產，有很多變動的部分，無論是挪威的停產還是格羅寧根的問題，或者從事情的聲音來看，你可能在英國遇到的問題。但是你能給我們一些關於為什麼這個數字的想法嗎？和本季度一樣疲軟嗎？

It's the lowest that I can remember.

這是我記憶中最低的了。

And to what extent you might expect volumes to come back over and above the typical seasonal effect?

您預計銷量會在多大程度上恢復到超出典型季節性影響的程度？

That was it.

就是這樣。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Lucas.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。

So I wasn't sure if you're referring to European gas production, the sector or the company.

所以我不確定你指的是歐洲天然氣生產、該行業還是該公司。

I'm assuming you're speaking about Shell specifically, so that's what I'll speak to.

我假設您具體談論的是殼牌，所以這就是我要談論的內容。

Indeed, you mentioned Groningen having an impact.

事實上，您提到格羅寧根有影響。

That is relevant.

這是相關的。

But also some of the softer areas of performance in our portfolio were also relevant, places like in the U.K. and Norway also contributed to that lower level.

但我們投資組合中一些表現較弱的領域也與此相關，英國和挪威等地也導致了較低的水平。

And of course, we're hoping to address some of those issues and bring it to a different place.

當然，我們希望解決其中一些問題並將其帶到不同的地方。

Groningen's a different circumstance.

格羅寧根的情況則不同。

And also, weather has a role to play as well.

此外，天氣也起著一定的作用。

With that, I believe we are at the end of our session today.

至此，我相信我們今天的會議就結束了。

Thank you, everyone, for your questions and for joining the call.

謝謝大家提出問題並加入電話會議。

The fourth quarter results are scheduled to be announced on the 30th of January 2020.

第四季度業績預計於2020年1月30日公佈。

It will be a webcast call rather than a face-to-face event.

這將是一次網絡廣播電話而不是面對面的活動。

Both Ben and I will talk to you all then.

到時候本和我都會和大家談談。

Have a good afternoon.

祝你下午好。

And that will conclude today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。