Banco Santander SA (SAN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Santander's first-half 2025 results presentation. We are delighted to be joined by our CEO, Hector Grisi; and our CFO, Jose Garcia-Cantera. We will start with the presentation and then come back for your questions. Hector, over to you.

早安，歡迎參加桑坦德銀行 2025 年上半年業績報告。我們很高興能與執行長 Hector Grisi 和財務長 Jose Garcia-Cantera 一起加入我們。我們將從演示開始，然後回來回答您的問題。赫克托，交給你了。

Thanks, Raul. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Santander results presentation. We will follow the usual structure. First, I will talk about our results with a special focus on the performance of our global businesses. Then Jose, our CFO, will give a deep dive on the financials, and I will conclude with some final remarks before opening up for Q&A.

謝謝，勞爾。大家早安，感謝大家參加桑坦德銀行業績發表會。我們將遵循通常的結構。首先，我將談談我們的業績，特別關注我們全球業務的表現。然後，我們的財務長 Jose 將深入介紹財務狀況，然後我將在開始問答之前發表一些最後的評論。

Before starting the presentation, let me remind everyone that we have announced an agreement to sell our business in Poland. Given that until the deal is completed, we're still managing Poland as prior to the announcement. All figures in this presentation include Poland.

在開始演講之前，請允許我提醒大家，我們已經宣布了出售我們在波蘭業務的協議。鑑於在交易完成之前，我們仍將像公告發布之前一樣管理波蘭。本簡報中的所有數字均包括波蘭。

We are approaching the end of our strategic cycle well ahead of our plan. Thanks to our disciplined capital allocation, which is further improving profitability up to 16% post-AT1 with our CET1 ratio at 13% and 88% of our RWAs generating returns above our cost of equity. After our latest inorganic transaction, we decided to accelerate execution of our EUR10 billion share buybacks and upgrade our share buybacks target, so we now expect to distribute at least EUR10 billion to our shareholders through share buybacks for '25, '26, subject to regulatory approvals.

我們的策略週期即將結束，這比我們的計劃要早得多。由於我們嚴格的資本配置，在 AT1 之後，我們的獲利能力進一步提高至 16%，CET1 比率為 13%，且 88% 的風險加權資產產生的回報高於我們的股權成本。在我們最新的無機交易之後，我們決定加快執行 100 億歐元的股票回購計劃，並提高股票回購目標，因此我們現在預計在 25 年、26 年透過股票回購向股東分配至少 100 億歐元，但須獲得監管部門的批准。

Q2 was another record quarter, demonstrating the strength of our strategy and the resilience of our business model in a more challenging environment. Our quarterly profit hit a new record of EUR3.4 billion, making H1 '25 the best first half ever, driven by strong revenue growth across global businesses and our solid franchise of 176 million customers that continues to grow, having increased by more than 8 million year-on-year as we improve customer experience, leveraging our global platforms. We achieved this as we continue to invest for the future through ONE Transformation, making excellent progress towards a simpler and more integrated model.

第二季又創下了紀錄，證明了我們策略的實力以及在更具挑戰性的環境中業務模式的韌性。我們的季度利潤創下 34 億歐元的新紀錄，使 2025 年上半年成為有史以來最好的上半年，這得益於全球業務的強勁收入增長以及我們 1.76 億客戶的穩固特許經營權，隨著我們利用全球平台改善客戶體驗，客戶數量繼續增長，同比增長超過 800 萬。我們之所以能實現這一目標，是因為我們透過「一個轉型」持續投資未來，在建立更簡單、更整合的模式方面取得了顯著進展。

This has helped us to improve our efficiency and increase our post AT-1 RoTE by almost 1 percentage point to 16%. Our balance sheet remains solid with a strong capital ratio, which ended the quarter at 13% at the top end of our 12% to 13% operating range. All this contributed to strong shareholder value creation with TNAV plus dividend per share growing 16% despite the depreciation of some currencies across our footprint.

這幫助我們提高了效率，並將 AT-1 後的 RoTE 提高了近 1 個百分點，達到 16%。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，資本充足率強勁，本季末達到 13%，處於我們 12% 至 13% 的營運範圍的最高端。所有這些都促進了強勁的股東價值創造，儘管我們業務範圍內的部分貨幣貶值，但每股 TNAV 加上股息仍增長了 16%。

Going into more detail on our income statement, our P&L remained very solid. We delivered strong top line growth with revenue up 5% in constant euros, supported by NII, which increased 1% or 4%, excluding Argentina and also by new record fees, up near double digits, supported by significant customer growth and the network benefits we are capturing through our global businesses. Expenses grew below revenue, showcasing the positive effects from our transformation. We reiterate our target of lower cost in current euros in '25.

更詳細地查看我們的損益表，我們的損益表仍然非常穩健。我們實現了強勁的營收成長，以歐元計算，營收成長了 5%，這得益於國家資訊基礎服務 (NII) 成長了 1% 或 4%（不包括阿根廷），以及創下新高的費用，增幅接近兩位數，這得益於客戶的大幅成長以及我們透過全球業務獲得的網路優勢。支出成長低於收入成長，顯示我們轉型帶來的正面效果。我們重申 25 年以當前歐元計算降低成本的目標。

We are once again demonstrating the sustainability of our results with 5% growth in net operating income. Our prudent approach to risk is also evident in our robust credit quality trends with a cost of risk that is consistently improving year-on-year. As a result, profit rose by double digits year-on-year.

淨營業收入成長 5% 再次證明了我們業績的可持續性。我們審慎的風險處理方式也反映在我們強勁的信貸品質趨勢上，風險成本逐年持續改善。因此，利潤同比增長了兩位數。

Lastly, this quarter, we had positive and negative one-off charges that were not part of our ordinary business and are fully compensated in the net capital gains and provisions line. All in all, as we have shown over time, our results are sustainable and less volatile than peers even in an increasingly challenging environment.

最後，本季度，我們有一些正負的一次性費用，這些費用不屬於我們的正常業務，並在淨資本收益和撥備項目中獲得了全額補償。總而言之，正如我們長期以來所表明的那樣，即使在日益嚴峻的環境中，我們的業績仍然是可持續的，而且比同行波動性更小。

We are ahead of plan in executing our transformation, which continues to boost our operational leverage, structurally improving both revenue and cost performances. Simplifying and automating processes and our active spread management have already contributed 243 basis points of efficiencies since we started.

我們在實施轉型方面領先於計劃，這將繼續提高我們的營運槓桿，從結構上改善收入和成本績效。自我們開始以來，簡化和自動化流程以及積極的利差管理已經貢獻了 243 個基點的效率。

Our global businesses continue to drive the group's profitability and have delivered 104 basis points in efficiency gains. Our proprietary and global tech capabilities have generated 87 basis points in efficiency so far, surpassing the levels, which we expected to reach by the end of '25. As we said last quarter, there is still more upside over the medium term from our strategy for both revenue and cost. Retail and consumer, which represents 70% of our revenue, have significant upside as we progress on the implementation of common platforms across all our global footprint.

我們的全球業務持續推動集團的獲利能力，並實現了 104 個基點的效率提升。到目前為止，我們的專有和全球技術能力已經產生了 87 個基點的效率，超過了我們預計在 25 年底達到的水平。正如我們上個季度所說，從中期來看，我們的收入和成本策略仍有更大的上升空間。零售和消費業務占我們收入的 70%，隨著我們在全球各地實施通用平台的進展，零售和消費業務具有顯著的成長潛力。

The rest of our revenue comes from Wealth, CIB and Payments, which are more fee-driven and will deliver additional efficiency improvements as we continue playing to our network strengths. All our global businesses delivered revenue growth while we improved group's profitability. Customer activity continues to drive revenue growth across all businesses, double digit in Wealth and Payments and also strongly in CIB. Profit also grew at double-digit rates in every business except Consumer, which remained broadly stable year-on-year and improved significantly in the second quarter.

我們其餘的收入來自財富、CIB 和支付，這些業務更由費用驅動，隨著我們繼續發揮網路優勢，它們將帶來額外的效率提升。我們所有的全球業務都實現了收入成長，同時提高了集團的獲利能力。客戶活動持續推動所有業務的收入成長，財富和支付業務的收入實現兩位數成長，CIB 業務的收入也強勁成長。除消費者業務外，其他所有業務的利潤均實現了兩位數增長，消費者業務的利潤同比基本保持穩定，並在第二季度顯著改善。

In terms of profitability, we're already above the target we set for '25 in most of the cases with an efficiency ratio that is improving at group level. The combination of our global businesses and our geographic footprint is a powerful example of how diversification works, putting us in a great position to navigate the challenges ahead. Higher-than-expected interest rates support some of our retail franchises, while other parts of our businesses such as consumer and certain emerging markets performed better with lower rates.

就獲利能力而言，大多數情況下我們已經超過了我們為25年設定的目標，集團層面的效率比率正在提高。我們的全球業務和地理足跡的結合是多元化運作的有力例證，使我們處於有利地位來應對未來的挑戰。高於預期的利率支撐了我們的部分零售特許經營業務，而我們的其他業務部分（如消費者和某些新興市場）在較低的利率下表現更好。

It's this diversification that allows us to deliver recurring strong results, consistent profitable growth and value creation even under more challenging circumstances. Overall, the record first half performance, the execution of our strategy and our diversification keeps us on track to achieve our full year profitability targets.

正是這種多樣化使我們能夠在更具挑戰性的情況下持續取得強勁業績、持續獲利成長和價值創造。總體而言，創紀錄的上半年業績、我們策略的執行以及多元化使我們有望實現全年獲利目標。

In retail, we are transforming the way we operate to become a digital bank with branches, combining cutting-edge technology with expertise and proximity of our teams. This combination is very powerful. It enables us to match the customer experience of digital-only competitors while offering personalized support and advisory through our branch network.

在零售業，我們正在轉變營運方式，成為一家擁有分行的數位銀行，將尖端技術與我們團隊的專業知識和親和力相結合。這個組合非常強大。它使我們能夠匹配純數位化競爭對手的客戶體驗，同時透過我們的分支網路提供個人化的支援和建議。

Over the last year, we have gained almost 3 million active customers, increased 3% our deposits and digital sales are up 16%. A key initiative is our new based AI global CRM already being deployed across the group. In Spain, we completed the rollout of the CRM in the branch network during the quarter, boosting agent productivity by 23% in our assisted channels.

在過去的一年裡，我們增加了近 300 萬活躍客戶，存款增加了 3%，數位銷售額增加了 16%。一項重要舉措是我們基於 AI 的全新全球 CRM 已在整個集團範圍內部署。在西班牙，我們在本季完成了在分支網路中的 CRM 推廣，使我們輔助通路的代理商生產力提高了 23%。

On the cost side, automation is reducing operational complexity, allowing teams to focus more on customer interactions and value-added activities and reducing manual activities to improve our cost to serve by 2% year-on-year. We are progressing in the rollout of our global platform.

在成本方面，自動化降低了營運複雜性，使團隊能夠更加專注於客戶互動和增值活動，並減少手動活動，從而使我們的服務成本比去年同期降低 2%。我們的全球平台推廣工作正在取得進展。

This quarter, we achieved a major milestone. We completed the migration of Gravity in Spain following last quarter launch in Chile. This brings us closer to becoming the first major Western bank to operate fully in the cloud and has already resulted in tangible benefits. Response times are 15% faster. Running costs have dropped over 65% in Spain. Deployment speed has improved from one month to just two days, and customers now enjoy a faster, more agile and intuitive digital banking experience.

本季度，我們實現了一個重要的里程碑。繼上個季度在智利推出 Gravity 之後，我們完成了在西班牙的遷移。這使我們更接近成為第一家完全在雲端運營的西方大型銀行，並且已經帶來了切實的效益。回應時間加快 15%。西班牙的營運成本下降了 65% 以上。部署速度從一個月縮短至兩天，客戶現在可以享受更快、更靈活、更直覺的數位銀行體驗。

Retail profit grew strongly year-on-year, driven by solid revenue across most countries. Cost declined in real terms, while credit quality remained solid. In a more demanding environment, NII grew 3% year-on-year, excluding Argentina, reflecting our focus on profitability and disciplined margin management. Fees rose 8%, supported by higher customer activity.

受大多數國家穩健收入的推動，零售利潤較去年同期強勁成長。成本實際下降，而信貸品質依然穩固。在更苛刻的環境下，NII 年成長 3%（不包括阿根廷），這反映了我們對獲利能力和嚴格的利潤率管理的關注。受客戶活動增加的推動，費用上漲了 8%。

As we said last quarter, by enhancing customer experience, reducing operational complexity and fostering connectivity, we expect our transformation to continue driving customer growth and lowering cost in Euros.

正如我們上個季度所說，透過提升客戶體驗、降低營運複雜性和促進連結性，我們預期我們的轉型將繼續推動客戶成長並降低歐元成本。

In Consumer, we continue to advance in our priority to become the preferred choice for our partners and customers by delivering the best solutions and increasing our cost competitive advantage across our footprint. We are converging towards platforms. The recent launch of Openbank in the US, Mexico and Germany has proven highly successful, attracting EUR6 billion in incremental customer deposits. We're expanding and consolidating partnerships, offering global and best-in-class solutions integrated into our partners' processes.

在消費者領域，我們繼續致力於透過提供最佳解決方案和提高我們在整個業務範圍內的成本競爭優勢，成為合作夥伴和客戶的首選。我們正在朝向平台化邁進。Openbank 最近在美國、墨西哥和德國推出，並取得了巨大成功，吸引了 60 億歐元的增量客戶存款。我們正在擴大和鞏固合作關係，提供融入合作夥伴流程的全球性和一流的解決方案。

Zinia, our checkout lending platform continues to gain traction with more than 200,000 new customers onboarded in Q2. Consumer profit was relatively stable year-on-year in a context of lower card volumes in Europe, which began to show signs of recovery towards the end of Q2 and was supported by a solid cost of risk performance.

我們的借貸平台 Zinia 繼續獲得關注，第二季新增了 20 多萬名客戶。在歐洲信用卡發卡量較低的背景下，消費者利潤比去年同期相對穩定，但在第二季末開始出現復甦跡象，並受到穩健的風險成本表現的支撐。

Quarter-on-quarter, profit grew 16%, driven by strong net interest income and fees as well as solid underlying LLP trends, mainly in the US, which was also benefited from some seasonality. Costs remained flat, reflecting the benefits of our transformation.

利潤環比增長 16%，這得益於強勁的淨利息收入和費用，以及主要在美國的穩固的 LLP 趨勢，這也受益於一些季節性因素。成本保持不變，反映了我們轉型帶來的好處。

Our focus is clear. We prioritize profitability over volume. We are currently originating at [RoTE] above 16%, well ahead of our back book. At the same time, we're lowering funding costs. Retail customer deposits grew 10% year-on-year and now represent 62% of total funding, up 5 points year-on-year.

我們的重點很明確。我們優先考慮盈利能力而不是數量。我們目前的 [RoTE] 高於 16%，遠高於我們的帳簿。同時，我們正在降低融資成本。零售客戶存款年增10%，佔總資金的62%，較去年同期成長5個百分點。

We are accelerating our transformation, which keeps bringing cost savings and we actively manage capital to maximize returns, redeploying it from lower return businesses to most profitable opportunities.

我們正在加速轉型，這將不斷帶來成本節約，我們積極管理資本以實現回報最大化，將其從回報較低的業務重新部署到最有利可圖的機會。

As a result, we expect profit and NII to improve through the year as we continue to originate at attractive profitability levels, lower funding costs and accelerate our transformation. In CIB, we are building a world-class business to better serve our corporate and institutional clients across our footprint, while maintaining the same low-risk profile. Number one, we continue deepening our client relationships by expanding our advisory capabilities in the US, building on our areas of expertise to accelerate growth across the group.

因此，隨著我們繼續保持有吸引力的獲利水準、降低融資成本並加速轉型，我們預計利潤和 NII 將在全年有所改善。在 CIB，我們正在打造世界一流的業務，以便更好地服務我們業務範圍內的企業和機構客戶，同時保持相同的低風險狀況。首先，我們透過擴大在美國的諮詢能力，繼續深化與客戶的關係，並利用我們的專業領域來加速整個集團的成長。

As a result, we are gaining market share and more relevant growth in investment banking. In the US, for example, we have won 30% more deals than last year with better roles in a market where overall deal count has fallen by 11%. Number two, we're strengthening our position in our core markets, leveraging our centers of expertise. A good example of this is our record half in Global Markets, with revenue up 25%, driven by, first of all, client flows, the investment banks -- investment, sorry, we made and the collaboration with global transactional banking and global banking.

因此，我們在投資銀行業務中獲得了更大的市場份額和更相關的成長。例如，在美國，我們贏得的交易比去年增加了 30%，並且在整體交易數量下降了 11% 的市場中發揮了更好的作用。第二，我們正在利用我們的專業中心來加強我們在核心市場的地位。一個很好的例子就是我們在全球市場的創紀錄的半年收入增長了 25%，這首先得益於客戶流量、投資銀行——對不起，是我們進行的投資，以及與全球交易銀行和全球銀行的合作。

Third, collaboration with other businesses is also a key growth lever. CIB provides FX solutions to retail, product development and structuring to wealth and a full suite of products, including capital markets and advisory to commercial and auto. Even in a more challenging context in Q2, CIB delivered solid results with revenues up 9% year-on-year, leading to the highest H1 revenue on record, supported by a higher NII increase and fee growth across the business lines, and the exceptional performance of Global Markets in Q1. All this while we maintain one of the best efficiency ratios in the sector and a RoTE above 20%, reflecting our focus on profitability and capital discipline.

第三，與其他企業的合作也是一個重要的成長槓桿。CIB 為零售業提供外匯解決方案，為財富業提供產品開發和結構設計，並提供全套產品，包括資本市場和商業及汽車諮詢。即使在第二季更具挑戰性的環境下，CIB 仍取得了穩健的業績，營收年增 9%，創下有史以來最高的上半年收入，這得益於更高的 NII 增幅和各業務線的費用增長，以及全球市場在第一季度的出色表現。同時，我們保持著業界最佳的效率比率之一，且 RoTE 超過 20%，這反映了我們對獲利能力和資本紀律的關注。

In Wealth, we are building the best wealth and insurance manager in Europe and the Americas. Number one, in private banking, we remain focused on expanding our fee business and consolidating our global position through value-added solutions. This quarter, we launched Beyond Wealth, our new global family office service and opened a dedicated service center for non-resident customers in Spain. Number two, in asset management, we strengthened our position in alternatives with the launch of the real estate co-living opportunities fund.

在財富方面，我們正在打造歐洲和美洲最好的財富和保險管理公司。首先，在私人銀行業務方面，我們仍然專注於擴大收費業務，並透過加值解決方案鞏固我們的全球地位。本季度，我們推出了新的全球家族辦公室服務 Beyond Wealth，並在西班牙為非居民客戶開設了專門的服務中心。第二，在資產管理方面，我們透過推出房地產共同生活機會基金，加強了我們在另類投資領域的地位。

And third, in insurance, which represents one of our most relevant growth opportunities, we're accelerating our strategy across two verticals: life and pensions with new lines such as retirement in Spain and unit-linked products in Mexico and property and casualty expanding high-growth businesses such as health and Autocompara. These efforts have supported a 6% year-on-year growth in gross written premiums.

第三，在保險領域，這是我們最相關的成長機會之一，我們正在加速推進兩大垂直領域的策略：人壽和退休金領域，推出新的產品線，如西班牙的退休金和墨西哥的單位連結產品；財產和意外傷害險，擴大高成長業務，如健康和 Autocompara。這些努力支持了總承保保費年增6%。

Fourth, promoting connectivity and collaboration with other businesses, mainly CIB and retail is also a major growth driver for wealth. Collaboration fees increased close to double digits.

第四，促進與其他業務，尤其是工商銀行和零售業的連結和合作也是財富成長的主要動力。合作費用成長接近兩位數。

In summary, all this supports strong growth and high profitability. Profit rose 24%, driven by strong commercial activity and double-digit fee growth across businesses. Efficiency improved 1.5 percentage-points year-on-year and RoTE is close to 70%, making Wealth an extremely efficient and profitable business for the group.

總而言之，所有這些都支持強勁的成長和高獲利能力。受強勁的商業活動和各業務費用兩位數增長的推動，利潤增長了 24%。效率年增1.5個百分點，RoTE接近70%，使財富管理成為集團一項極為有效率且獲利的業務。

Finally, Payments, where we hold a unique position on both sides of the value chain. In merchant acquiring, we are among the largest players in Latin America, Spain and Portugal. We are focused on expanding our global platform with a single API to serve all our customers, and we have already integrated several partners in Mexico, Argentina and Uruguay.

最後，在支付領域，我們在價值鏈的兩端都佔據著獨特的地位。在商家收單領域，我們是拉丁美洲、西班牙和葡萄牙最大的商家收單機構之一。我們專注於透過單一 API 擴展我們的全球平台來服務所有客戶，並且我們已經整合了墨西哥、阿根廷和烏拉圭的多個合作夥伴。

As a result, Getnet total payments volume keep growing strongly. which is helping us to consolidate our presence in core markets. PagoNxt Payments is leveraging the best proprietary technology to deliver account-to-account payments processing, FX, fraud detection and other value-added services. Volumes processed by our Payments Hub were 4 times higher than the same period last year. In cards, where we are amongst the largest issuers globally with 106 million active cards, we continue to expand the business, offering best-in-class products to our customers.

因此，Getnet 的總支付量保持強勁成長，這有助於我們鞏固在核心市場的地位。PagoNxt Payments 正在利用最好的專有技術來提供帳戶到帳戶的支付處理、外匯、詐欺偵測和其他增值服務。我們的支付中心處理的交易量比去年同期高出 4 倍。在信用卡領域，我們是全球最大的發卡機構之一，擁有 1.06 億張活躍信用卡，我們將繼續擴大業務，為客戶提供一流的產品。

This quarter, we have introduced Pay Smarter in Spain, a new initiative designed to enhance the security, control and benefits of credit card usage, encouraging greater adoption among our customers. We also continue to expand our joint value proposition with Getnet now available in Spain, Chile and Portugal and following the recent launch also in Argentina.

本季度，我們在西班牙推出了 Pay Smarter，這是一項新舉措，旨在增強信用卡使用的安全性、控制力和優勢，鼓勵我們的客戶更多地採用它。我們也將繼續擴大與 Getnet 的聯合價值主張，Getnet 目前已在西班牙、智利和葡萄牙推出，並且最近也在阿根廷推出。

Payments delivered a strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth year-on-year, both in cards and PagoNxt and cost under control driving 47% profit growth. Finally, PagoNxt EBITDA margin improved to 29%, backed by Getnet with one of the best ratios among our competitors. We expect revenue growth, cost efficiency and CapEx optimization to continue driving profitability in the coming quarters.

支付業務在本季表現強勁，信用卡和 PagoNxt 營收年比均實現兩位數成長，且成本得到控制，推動利潤成長 47%。最後，在 Getnet 的支持下，PagoNxt 的 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 29%，其比率在競爭對手中名列前茅。我們預計收入成長、成本效率和資本支出優化將在未來幾季繼續推動獲利能力。

Our strong operational and financial performance is improving profitability and driving double-digit value creation for the ninth consecutive quarter. Post-AT1 RoTE was 16%, up nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year, reflecting the high levels of the new business profitability.

我們強勁的營運和財務表現正在提高獲利能力，並連續第九個季度推動兩位數的價值創造。AT1之後的RoTE為16%，較去年同期上升近1個百分點，反映出新業務獲利能力處於高水準。

Earnings per share rose to more than EUR0.43, supported by strong profit generation and fewer shares following the buybacks. As a result, we continue to grow our value creation, which in terms of TNAV plus cash EPS increased 16%, reflecting our disciplined capital allocation and, again, the impact of our share buybacks. Buybacks remain one of the most effective ways to generate shareholder value.

受強勁的利潤增長和回購後股票數量的減少推動，每股收益升至 0.43 歐元以上。因此，我們繼續增加我們的價值創造，以 TNAV 加現金 EPS 計算，成長了 16%，這反映了我們嚴格的資本配置，以及我們股票回購的影響。回購仍然是創造股東價值最有效的方式之一。

Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved a new buyback program up to EUR1.7 billion against '25 results, which as the ECB has already granted the corresponding approval will start to be executed tomorrow. Since '21 and including this last program we are announcing today, we will have repurchased around 15% to 16% of our outstanding shares. These programs have been executed at an average price of EUR3.9 per share, providing a return on investment of approximately 20% to our shareholders.

昨天，董事會批准了一項新的回購計劃，該計劃將針對2025年的業績，金額高達17億歐元，由於歐洲央行已經給予相應批准，該計劃將於明天開始執行。自 21 年以來，包括我們今天宣布的最後一個計劃，我們將回購約 15% 至 16% 的流通股。這些計劃的執行平均價格為每股 3.9 歐元，為我們的股東帶來了約 20% 的投資回報。

I will leave you now with Jose, who will go into our financial performance in more detail.

現在我將與 Jose 一起，更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Hector, and good morning, everyone. I will go into more detail on the group's P&L and capital performance. But before I do that, let me make a couple of comments. First, this quarter, we have recorded two one-offs, obviously not part of our ordinary business of the same amount, but opposite directions. A net capital gain of EUR231 million from the sale of our stake in CACEIS, amount that we decided to use to strengthen the balance sheet in Brazil. Second, as we always do, we present growth rates in both current and constant euros.

謝謝你，赫克托，大家早安。我將更詳細地介紹該集團的損益和資本表現。但在此之前，請容許我發表幾點評論。首先，本季我們記錄了兩筆一次性交易，顯然不是我們同等金額的正常業務的一部分，而是方向相反。出售我們在 CACEIS 的股份獲得了 2.31 億歐元的淨資本收益，我們決定用這筆錢來加強巴西的資產負債表。其次，正如我們一貫的做法，我們以當前歐元和恆定歐元來表示成長率。

We have a difference of around 5 percentage points between them again this quarter, mainly due to the depreciation of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso towards the end of last year. As the CEO explained, we are yet again reporting record results this quarter for the fifth quarter in a row.

本季兩者之間再次出現約 5 個百分點的差異，這主要是由於去年年底巴西雷亞爾和墨西哥比索貶值所致。正如執行長所解釋的那樣，本季我們再次報告了連續第五個季度創紀錄的業績。

Revenue grew 5% with a good performance in costs, in line with our objective for 2025. Cost of risk remained stable in the quarter, supported by robust labor markets and prudent risk management. There are several positives and negatives in the other results line, but the concepts that explain most of the significant jump in this line year-on-year are the write-downs in PagoNxt and the temporary levy on revenue earned in Spain, which were accounted for last year.

營收成長 5%，成本表現良好，符合我們 2025 年的目標。在強勁的勞動力市場和審慎的風險管理的支持下，本季風險成本保持穩定。其他業績方面也存在一些積極和消極因素，但能夠解釋該業績同比大幅增長的主要原因是 PagoNxt 的減記以及對西班牙收入徵收的臨時稅，這些都已在去年進行了核算。

Finally, on the right-hand side of the slide, you can see the upward trend in profit, which grew 4% this quarter on the back of an outstanding NII performance, which rose 2% quarter-on-quarter, cost control and better loan loss provisions.

最後，在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到利潤的上升趨勢，本季度利潤增長了 4%，這得益於出色的 NII 業績（環比增長 2%）、成本控制和更好的貸款損失準備金。

Total revenue increased 5% to EUR31 billion, on track to meet the target for the year in a less favorable context than initially anticipated. This was underpinned by growth in number of customers and in their activity with us across all businesses. All our global businesses contributed to revenue growth, which was mainly supported by another record half in CIB, up 9% year-on-year, driven especially by Global Markets and our growth initiatives in the US.

總營收成長 5% 至 310 億歐元，在環境不如最初預期的情況下，仍有望實現年度目標。這是由客戶數量的增長以及他們與我們在所有業務領域的活動的增長所支撐的。我們所有的全球業務都為收入成長做出了貢獻，其中主要得益於 CIB 業務再創紀錄的半年收入，同比增長 9%，這主要得益於全球市場和我們在美國的增長計劃。

We had 14% revenue growth in Wealth with record assets under management and strong commercial trends. Payments was up 17%, with double-digit growth in NII and fees, both in PagoNxt and cards, which was fueled by higher activity levels. And we showed a strong performance in retail and consumer. In retail, particularly due to good NII and fee income in most countries and in consumer, supported by net interest income growth, both in Europe and in the US.

我們的財富收入成長了 14%，管理資產規模創歷史新高，商業趨勢強勁。支付額增加了 17%，其中 NII 和費用（包括 PagoNxt 和信用卡）均實現了兩位數成長，這得益於活動水準的提高。我們在零售和消費領域表現強勁。在零售領域，尤其得益於大多數國家的良好NII和費用收入，以及消費者領域，受到歐洲和美國淨利息收入成長的支持。

The group's NII increased 4% year-on-year, excluding Argentina. Almost 85% of the group's net interest income comes from retail and consumer. However, this quarter, most of our businesses contributed to the overall positive growth year-on-year, which was supported by our active asset and liability pricing management, most evident in consumer, both in Europe and in the US, with improving loan yields and a funding structure with a larger share of customer deposits, but also in retail, especially in UK, Chile and Mexico.

除阿根廷外，該集團的NII年增4％。該集團近85%的淨利息收入來自零售和消費者。然而，本季度，我們的大部分業務都為整體同比增長做出了貢獻，這得益於我們積極的資產和負債定價管理，最明顯的是在歐洲和美國的消費者業務中，貸款收益率不斷提高，融資結構中客戶存款的份額更大，但也出現在零售業務中，特別是在英國、智利和墨西哥。

Lower funding costs related to market activities in CIB and the measures that we have been taking in the last few quarters to adapt the sensitivity of our balance sheet to protect NII on the new cycle of interest rates.

降低與 CIB 市場活動相關的融資成本，以及我們在過去幾季採取的措施，以調整資產負債表的敏感性，在新的利率週期中保護 NII。

A good example of this is retail, where NII increased across most countries and remained fairly flat in Spain and Brazil in a less favorable context for interest rates. As you know, we have positive sensitivity to rates in Spain and negative in Brazil. Net interest income grew 2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the performance of net interest margin, which improved in the quarter for the same reasons that I mentioned before, while it fell only 10 basis points year-on-year without Argentina.

零售業就是一個很好的例子，大多數國家的零售業NII都有所增加，但在利率不太有利的環境下，西班牙和巴西的NII保持基本持平。如您所知，我們對西班牙的利率持正面態度，對巴西的利率持消極態度。淨利息收入季增 2%，主要得益於淨利差的表現，本季淨利差因我之前提到的同樣原因而有所改善，而如果不計阿根廷因素，淨利差同比僅下降 10 個基點。

This performance is in line with our guidance of NII going slightly up in 2025 in constant euros, excluding Argentina and slightly down in current euros, guidance that we reiterate.

這一表現符合我們的指導意見，即到 2025 年，NII 將以不變歐元（不包括阿根廷）計算略有上升，以當前歐元計算則將略有下降，我們重申這一指導意見。

We generated another record half in net fee income, reflecting our transformation efforts to promote connectivity across the group, deploy high value-added products and services and provide the best customer experience. Net fee income grew close to double digits, well above inflation and cost on the back of a strong activity in general, customer growth and a mix that is more weighted towards value-added products and services.

我們的淨費用收入再創歷史新高，體現了我們為促進整個集團的連通性、部署高附加價值產品和服務以及提供最佳客戶體驗而做出的轉型努力。由於整體業務的強勁成長、客戶數量的成長以及更注重增值產品和服務的組合，淨費用收入成長接近兩位數，遠高於通貨膨脹和成本。

Retail showed good performance across our footprint with solid consumer growth. CIB grew 9%, up from record levels last year with an excellent -- after an excellent first quarter, and the second quarter was supported by the good performance in GTV and as we continue executing our growth initiatives, particularly in Global Banking in the US.

零售業在我們的業務範圍內表現良好，消費者成長穩健。CIB 成長了 9%，高於去年創紀錄的水平，在第一季度表現出色之後，第二季度得到了 GTV 良好表現的支持，並且我們繼續執行成長計劃，特別是在美國的全球銀行業務。

We had a 20% increase in Wealth with a strong growth in all business lines, backed by record assets under management and a greater share of fee businesses. We showed double-digit growth also in Payments, both in PagoNxt and cards, supported by high activity levels as Getnet's total payments volume increased 15% and cards spending rose 9% year-on-year.

我們的財富成長了 20%，所有業務線都實現了強勁成長，這得益於創紀錄的資產管理規模和費用業務份額的增加。在高活動水準的支持下，我們的 PagoNxt 和卡片支付也實現了兩位數增長，因為 Getnet 的總支付量同比增長了 15%，卡消費同比增長了 9%。

As we detailed in the first quarter, this year, consumer is affected by the impact of the new insurance regulation in Germany and also by lower card registrations in Europe. However, strong fee income growth in consumer US came mainly from servicing fees on auto portfolios sold under our capital-light strategy, which is helping to partially offset this impact.

正如我們在今年第一季所詳述的那樣，消費者受到了德國新保險法規以及歐洲信用卡註冊量下降的影響。然而，美國消費者業務費用收入的強勁成長主要來自於我們輕資本策略下出售的汽車投資組合的服務費，這有助於部分抵銷這種影響。

And our strategic focus on insurance is also delivering tangible progress in consumer across Europe and LatAm with rising penetration expected to translate into higher fee income generation as activity gains momentum.

我們對保險的策略重點也在歐洲和拉丁美洲的消費者中取得了切實的進展，隨著保險活動的增強，滲透率的提高預計將轉化為更高的費用收入。

ONE Transformation is key to understanding why we're improving our profitability in every single market, leveraging the connectivity of our global businesses, providing economies of scale and scope. As a result, we expect sustainable improvements in operational leverage as we further implement the structural changes to our model. These improvements are already very evident as demonstrated by the evolution of our cost base in absolute terms that translates into better efficiency levels, which are amongst the best in the industry.

一次轉型是理解我們為何在每個市場提高獲利能力、利用全球業務的連結性、提供規模經濟和範圍經濟的關鍵。因此，隨著我們進一步實施模型的結構性變化，我們預期營運槓桿將持續改善。這些改進已經非常明顯，正如我們成本基礎的絕對變化所證明的那樣，這轉化為更好的效率水平，在業界名列前茅。

In Retail and Consumer, which are leading our transformation, costs remain well under control, down 1% in real terms, even after absorbing wage inflation in some of the countries and upfront cost of rolling out global platforms. Retail and Consumer represents 70% of our cost base, and we expect them to showcase the benefits of ONE Transformation going forward.

在引領我們轉型的零售和消費領域，成本仍然得到很好的控制，即使在吸收了一些國家的工資上漲和推出全球平台的前期成本之後，實際成本仍下降了 1%。零售和消費占我們成本基礎的 70%，我們預計它們將在未來展示 ONE Transformation 的優勢。

CIB, Wealth and Payments are more fee driven. Cost in these businesses grew 6%, however, showing positive operating jaws with a double-digit fee increase, as I just explained. We had a strong cost performance also in the quarter, which was affected by Argentina. Excluding Argentina, cost remains flat, even after our investments on transformation and initiatives for future growth.

CIB、財富和支付更多地依賴費用。然而，這些業務的成本增長了 6%，正如我剛才解釋的那樣，隨著費用兩位數的增長，營業利潤出現了正增長。儘管受到阿根廷的影響，本季我們的成本表現仍然強勁。除了阿根廷外，即使我們在轉型和未來成長計畫方面進行投資，成本仍然保持穩定。

As a result, net operating income rose 5% from last year, and our efficiency ratio improved to 41.5%, the best in more than 15 years. As Hector said, we reiterate our guidance for lower absolute cost in current euros for 2025. The risk profile of our balance sheet remains low with robust credit quality across the footprint on the back of a strong labor markets and easing monetary policies in general.

結果，營業淨收入比去年增長了 5%，我們的效率比率提高到 41.5%，達到 15 年來的最佳水平。正如赫克託所說，我們重申對 2025 年以當前歐元計算的絕對成本較低的指導。在強勁的勞動力市場和整體寬鬆的貨幣政策的推動下，我們的資產負債表的風險狀況仍然較低，整個業務範圍內的信貸品質強勁。

Loan loss provisions increased 6% year-on-year, reflecting our efforts to reduce NPLs and also some deterioration in Brazil in the context of higher interest rates and inflation. Excluding the provisions allocated to accelerating write-offs, the increase would have been just 3%.

貸款損失準備金年增 6%，反映了我們為減少不良貸款所做的努力，也反映了巴西在利率上升和通貨膨脹的背景下情況惡化。不計加速沖銷的撥備，增幅僅 3%。

Credit quality continued to improve year-on-year as reflected both in the NPL and the cost of risk. The NPL ratio fell further and is now at 2.91%. Remember that much of our NPL portfolio has collateral, guarantees and other provisions that account for more than 80% of total exposure.

信貸品質持續較去年同期改善，不良貸款和風險成本均有所反映。不良貸款率進一步下降，目前為2.91%。請記住，我們的不良貸款組合中的大部分都有抵押品、擔保和其他準備金，佔總風險敞口的 80% 以上。

Cost of risk improved 7 basis points year-on-year and remained stable in the quarter at 1.14% despite proactive management actions to lower NPLs, as I just explained. In retail, cost of risk improved across all our main countries and was also slightly down in the quarter with significant improvement in Mexico, compensating a weaker performance in Brazil.

正如我剛才解釋的那樣，儘管採取了積極的管理措施來降低不良貸款，但風險成本比去年同期改善了 7 個基點，本季保持穩定在 1.14%。在零售領域，我們所有主要國家的風險成本均有所改善，並且本季度也略有下降，其中墨西哥的風險成本有顯著改善，彌補了巴西表現較弱的現象。

In Consumer, cost of risk improved both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter with notable improvements in the US, where we are seeing a resilient customer behavior, stronger used car prices and stable labor market. We anticipate a stable cost of risk going forward as we do not foresee a deterioration in employment levels.

在消費者領域，風險成本年比和季比均有所改善，其中美國的情況顯著改善，我們看到了強勁的消費者行為、更強勁的二手車價格和穩定的勞動力市場。由於我們預期就業水準不會惡化，我們預期未來風險成本將保持穩定。

Moving on to capital. As you know, we have been improving our capital productivity and accelerating our capital generation for some time. Our CET1 ratio increased to 13% and stands at the top of our 12% to 13% operating range. This quarter, we generated 54 basis points of capital from attributable profit and asset rotation initiatives more than offset organic risk-weighted asset growth. Since the asset rotation typically concentrates in the second half of the year, we would expect net organic capital generation to accelerate meaningfully in the next two quarters.

轉向資本。如您所知，我們一直在提高資本生產力並加速資本產生。我們的 CET1 比率上升至 13%，處於 12% 至 13% 營運範圍的最高值。本季度，我們從應占利潤和資產輪換計劃中產生了 54 個基點的資本，足以抵消有機風險加權資產成長。由於資產輪換通常集中在下半年，我們預計未來兩季淨有機資本產生將顯著加速。

This enabled us to accumulate capital after compensating capital distribution charges for shareholder remuneration and AT1s and absorbing other charges, including some regulatory headwinds, which this year will be lower than initially expected as some of them have been postponed to 2026.

這使我們能夠在補償股東報酬和 AT1 的資本分配費用並吸收其他費用（包括一些監管阻力）後累積資本，今年的資本累積將低於最初的預期，因為其中一些費用已推遲到 2026 年。

As a result, we expect regulatory charges of around 20 basis points in the second half of 2025. These figures do not yet reflect the impact from our recent inorganic transactions in Poland and in the UK. We continue to deploy capital to the most profitable opportunities and leverage our global asset desk mobilization capabilities to maximize capital productivity.

因此，我們預計 2025 年下半年的監管費用約為 20 個基點。這些數字尚未反映我們最近在波蘭和英國的無機交易的影響。我們繼續將資本部署到最有利可圖的機會，並利用我們的全球資產部門調動能力來最大限度地提高資本生產力。

Our disciplined capital allocation delivered a new book return on risk-weighted assets of 2.8% in the quarter, equivalent to a return on tangible equity of 22%, well above that of our back book. We are selling credit risk at a RoRWA of approximately half of that figure. All these actions underpin our growing profitability and consistent capital generation. Accretive capital redeployment is a top priority for us. Our recent organic transactions are a key example of our consistent application of a strict capital hierarchy under which we prioritize organic profitable growth and ordinary distributions, while any bolt-on acquisition must be complementary to our strategy and deliver attractive financial results at least in line with those of any organic investments and exceed share buybacks.

我們嚴謹的資本配置使本季風險加權資產的新帳面回報率達到 2.8%，相當於有形權益的回報率為 22%，遠高於我們以往的帳面回報率。我們以大約該數字一半的 RoRWA 出售信用風險。所有這些行動都鞏固了我們不斷增長的獲利能力和持續的資本創造。增值資本重新部署是我們的首要任務。我們最近的有機交易是我們一貫應用嚴格資本等級制度的一個重要例子，在該等級制度下，我們優先考慮有機盈利增長和普通分配，而任何附加收購都必須與我們的戰略相輔相成，並帶來至少與任何有機投資相符的有吸引力的財務結果，並超過股票回購。

We announced the disposal of Santander Polska at 3 times our initial investment, which is expected to generate around 100 basis points of capital. As buybacks remain one of the most effective ways to generate risk-free shareholder value, we decided to use half of this excess capital to accelerate the execution of the share buybacks that we announced at the beginning of the year and improve our target to at least EUR10 billion for 2025 and 2026 earnings. We will deploy the remaining half excess capital into the acquisition of TSB at highly attractive returns while we enhance our strategic positioning.

我們宣布以初始投資的三倍出售 Santander Polska，預計將產生約 100 個基點的資本。由於回購仍然是創造無風險股東價值的最有效方式之一，我們決定使用一半的過剩資本來加速執行我們在年初宣布的股票回購，並將我們的目標提高到 2025 年和 2026 年盈利至少 100 億歐元。我們將把剩餘的一半過剩資本投入到收購 TSB 中，以獲得極具吸引力的回報，同時增強我們的策略定位。

We are deploying capital at least a 20% return on investment capital. The deal will be EPS accretive from day one, and it will increase group EPS by around 4% by 2028. We are buying TSB at around 5 times earnings post synergies.

我們正在部署至少 20% 投資回報率的資本。該交易將從第一天起增加每股收益，到 2028 年將使集團每股收益增加約 4%。我們以協同效應後收益的 5 倍左右的價格收購 TSB。

At the same time, TSB will contribute to the group with a low-risk profile. It will accelerate Santander UK's transformation, improve connectivity across the group and increase our exposure to mature markets and hard currency. During 2026, we expect that organic capital generation will provide additional room to deploy capital in line with our capital hierarchy.

同時，TSB 將以低風險狀況為集團做出貢獻。它將加速桑坦德英國銀行的轉型，改善整個集團的連結性，並增加我們在成熟市場和硬通貨的曝險。到 2026 年，我們預計有機資本生成將為根據我們的資本層級部署資本提供額外的空間。

That's all from my side. Hector, over to you.

我這邊就說這麼多。赫克托，交給你了。

Thanks, Jose. In conclusion, this is a great first half. We are well on track to achieve our '25 targets that we reiterate. Good business dynamics supported a revenue increase backed by all our businesses with fees growing in high single digit at the same time that we reduced cost in Euro terms. Cost of risk improved year-on-year and is also in line with our target of around 1.15% at the end of the year.

謝謝，何塞。總而言之，這是一個很棒的上半場。我們正順利實現我們重申的‘25’目標。良好的業務動態支持了收入的成長，這得益於我們所有業務的費用都以高個位數成長，同時我們降低了以歐元計算的成本。風險成本較去年同期有所改善，也符合我們年底約 1.15% 的目標。

We grew the CET1 ratio again to 13%. So it now stands at the upper end of our operating range as we profitably grew our business organically, accrued shareholder distributions and absorbed some regulatory impacts and one-offs. And RoTE increased to 16%, on track to reach our target of circa 16.5% in '25. And TNAV plus cash dividend per share is growing at double digits.

我們將 CET1 比率再次提高至 13%。因此，由於我們實現了業務的有機獲利成長、累積股東分配並吸收了一些監管影響和一次性影響，它現在處於我們營運範圍的上限。RoTE 增至 16%，預計 25 年達到約 16.5% 的目標。每股 TNAV 加上現金股利正以兩位數成長。

In summary, very positive first half, which we expect to consolidate in the second part of the year to achieve our targets, even in an environment of higher uncertainty than initially anticipated. We anticipate revenue to continue evolving along similar lines with NII growing slightly in constant euros, excluding Argentina and fees increasing in line with the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year.

總而言之，上半年表現非常積極，即使在比最初預期更不確定的環境下，我們也有望在下半年鞏固這一局面，實現我們的目標。我們預計收入將繼續沿著類似的路線發展，NII以不變歐元計算略有增長（不包括阿根廷），費用則按照我們年初提供的指導增加。

Cost should improve during the rest of the year as we continue to capture the benefits of our transformation, and we expect the cost of risk to remain stable, supported by resilient labor markets. The strength of our business model is clear.

隨著我們繼續獲得轉型帶來的好處，今年剩餘時間內成本應該會有所改善，並且我們預計在彈性勞動市場的支持下，風險成本將保持穩定。我們的商業模式的優勢是顯而易見的。

Our unique combination of customer focus, scale and diversification with consistent execution of ONE Transformation delivers profitable, predictable and sustainable growth and creates long-term value for our shareholders, our customers and our teams.

我們將客戶中心、規模和多樣化與持續執行「一個轉型」相結合，實現了盈利、可預測和可持續的成長，並為我們的股東、客戶和團隊創造了長期價值。

Before we move to the Q&A session, I would like to announce our next Investor Day, where we will deep dive on our strategy and goals for the next three years, which will take place in London on the 25 February, '26.

在進入問答環節之前，我想宣布我們的下一個投資者日，屆時我們將深入探討未來三年的策略和目標，該活動將於 2026 年 2 月 25 日在倫敦舉行。

Now we will be happy to take your questions. Thank you.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。謝謝。

Thanks, Hector and Jose. Let's move to the Q&A. Operator, could we have the first question, please?

謝謝，赫克托和何塞。讓我們進入問答環節。接線員，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

（操作員說明）Francisco Riquel，Alantra。

I have two questions. The first one is NII in the UK, which disappointed this Q2, particularly in deposit costs and despite the structural hedge, if you can please comment on the Q2 dynamics and update your NII guidance for the UK going forward and how this could affect your recently revised RoTE target for this unit after the TSB acquisition?

我有兩個問題。第一個是英國的國家資訊基礎設施 (NII)，其第二季度的表現令人失望，特別是在存款成本方面，儘管進行了結構性對沖，但您是否可以評論一下第二季度的動態並更新您對英國未來國家信息基礎設施 (NII) 的指導，以及這將如何影響您在收購 TSB 後最近修改的該部門的 RoTE 目標？

And my second question is top-up provisions in Brazil. What is the problem here? What segments are the most affected? Despite the top-up provisions to accelerate the write-offs, the NPL ratio is approaching 7%. So you can please update on the outlook for NPLs and cost of risk in Brazil going forward?

我的第二個問題是巴西的補充規定。這裡有什麼問題？哪些部分受影響最嚴重？儘管採取補充措施加速核銷，不良貸款率仍接近7%。那麼，您能否更新巴西未來不良貸款和風險成本的前景？

Thank you, Francisco. Okay. First of all, it's important to say that UK, as you know, is work in progress, okay? I believe that one of the biggest opportunities of Santander is here. We have a big transformation underway here in the country, and we're very focused on profitability, okay?

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。好的。首先，值得一提的是，如你所知，英國正在不斷進步，好嗎？我相信桑坦德銀行最大的機會之一就在這裡。我們國家正在進行一場大轉型，我們非常注重獲利能力，好嗎？

You have seen the deposit margin discipline that we have. We have delivered strong net operating income and also better fees and focus on becoming the number one bank for our customer. It's important to say also we have had some tailwinds from the structural hedge that we have, and Jose can give you in detail exactly what's going on there.

您已經看到了我們的存款保證金紀律。我們實現了強勁的淨營業收入和更優惠的費用，並致力於成為客戶的首選銀行。值得一提的是，我們也從現有的結構性對沖中獲得了一定的助力，Jose 可以向您詳細介紹目前的具體情況。

Also, it's important to acknowledge that we have a cost savings from transformation of around 3.5% that is showing up in the numbers. And '25 is going to be slightly up in NII. Bottom line is impacted by the transformation cost, first of all, the branch closure mainly that we have done there as the program that we actually announced in the first quarter, okay? And we believe also that the cost of risk is basically going to normalized levels of around 8% to 10%. It is important to say that our commitment to the UK is reinforced by the TSB acquisition, okay, that will contribute in improving our RoTE from 11% in '24 to 16% expected in '28, okay?

此外，必須承認的是，我們透過轉型節省了約 3.5% 的成本，這已從數字上體現出來。而 25 年的 NII 將會略有上升。底線受到轉型成本的影響，首先，主要是我們在那裡關閉分支機構，這是我們在第一季實際宣布的計劃，好嗎？我們也認為風險成本基本上會達到 8% 至 10% 左右的正常水準。值得一提的是，收購 TSB 進一步加強了我們對英國的承諾，這將有助於將我們的 RoTE 從 1924 年的 11% 提高到 1928 年預期的 16%，好嗎？

Also, for '25, we expect NII to be, as I said, already slightly up, driven by the focus on the margin management that we have already said, the structural hedge that we have. And what I said, I mean, cost should be down. I don't know, Jose, if you would like to complement a little bit on the hedge.

此外，對於 25 年，我們預計 NII 將略有上升，正如我所說，這是由我們已經提到的對保證金管理的關注以及我們所擁有的結構性對沖所推動的。我所說的意思是，成本應該會下降。我不知道，何塞，你是否願意對樹籬稍加補充。

In the first quarter, there was an abnormally high volume of mortgages ahead of the end of the stamp duty exception, and this was corrected in the second quarter. And we also had substantial early repayments. So when you look at margins, actually volumes margins, they are behaving very much in line with what we expected, excluding this one-off from early repayments.

第一季度，在印花稅豁免結束之前，抵押貸款數量異常高，這一情況在第二季度得到糾正。我們還有大量提前還款。因此，當您查看利潤率，實際上是交易量利潤率時，它們的表現與我們的預期非常一致，不包括提前還款的一次性款項。

So average volumes for loans were -- was down 3% in the first half relative to the first half of last year. But net interest -- the yield on loans was up 28 basis points. Similarly, deposit volumes were down 4%, but cost of deposits was down 25 basis points.

因此，上半年貸款平均額度與去年同期相比下降了 3%。但淨利息——貸款收益率上升了 28 個基點。同樣，存款量下降了 4%，但存款成本下降了 25 個基點。

So the improvement in net interest margin, client net interest margin in the first half relative to the first half of last year was actually 53 basis points from 1.66% to 2.19%. So very good net interest margin performance from customers.

因此，上半年淨利差、客戶淨利差相對於去年上半年的改善實際上是 53 個基點，從 1.66% 提高到 2.19%。因此，客戶的淨利差表現非常好。

And again, as Hector said, we reiterate the guidance that we gave for the whole year. Again, here, and let me reiterate, there is a strong seasonality or a very different behavior between the first quarter and the second quarter. And because we mostly have -- we have a mortgage portfolio, we are more affected in relative terms than others for the early repayments.

正如赫克託所說，我們再次重申我們對全年的指導。再次，讓我重申一下，第一季和第二季之間存在著強烈的季節性或非常不同的行為。而且由於我們大多擁有抵押貸款組合，因此在提前還款方面，我們受到的影響相對其他人更大。

Thank you, Francisco. In Brazil, okay, despite a challenging environment, we will make mid-teen returns in Brazil. That's basically around the same returns we did last year. As you have seen, fees are going up quarter-on-quarter despite the one-off that we had in insurance. ONE Transformation is basically impacting and helping us out in many ways to manage much better the bank.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。在巴西，儘管環境充滿挑戰，但我們在巴西的回報率仍達到中等水平。這基本上與我們去年的回報相同。正如您所看到的，儘管我們在保險方面出現了一次性的收費，但費用仍環比上漲。ONE Transformation 基本上在許多方面影響並幫助我們更好地管理銀行。

Putting into perspective, Brazil is only 9% of our loan book, okay? So it's very important. And also diversification is helping out and it's offset by the US and Europe and the power that we have in terms of basically managing the books that we see fit.

從這個角度來看，巴西只占我們貸款總額的 9%，對嗎？所以這非常重要。此外，多樣化也起到了幫助作用，而美國和歐洲的影響力以及我們在管理我們認為合適的帳簿方面的權力則起到了抵消作用。

Where it's important to say we're operating for profitability, okay? We're changing the mix on the portfolio given the environment, and we're concentrated on secured lending for individuals. Example, what we're doing in auto, where we are the number one lender in the country and payroll loans, which we believe are an opportunity given the current environment. Credit cards, for example, we are diminishing what we're doing there. And instead of placing and doing 400,000 cards per month, we come down to 250,000, trying to be and only giving credit cards to our customers, okay?

重要的是說我們營運是為了獲利，好嗎？我們正在根據環境改變投資組合的結構，並專注於個人擔保貸款。例如，我們在汽車行業所做的工作，我們是全國最大的貸款機構，我們也在工資貸款領域開展業務，我們認為在當前環境下這是一個機會。以信用卡為例，我們正在減少這方面的業務。我們不再每月發放和辦理 40 萬張卡，而是減少到 25 萬張，並努力只向客戶提供信用卡，好嗎？

It's important also to tell you that cost of risk losses didn't change, okay, relative to our expectations. So it's very important to say that. But given the macro environment, we wanted to be conservative and strengthen the balance sheet. That's why we took the gain from CACEIS to do that and to do the PMA. That's basically what it is.

還要告訴您的是，相對於我們的預期，風險損失的成本並沒有改變。所以說這一點非常重要。但考慮到宏觀環境，我們希望採取保守態度並加強資產負債表。這就是為什麼我們利用 CACEIS 的優勢來做這件事並進行 PMA。基本上就是這樣。

But nonetheless, we believe that we're going to be around the levels that we told you at the beginning in terms of cost of risk basically at levels at around 5% or below.

但儘管如此，我們相信風險成本將保持在我們一開始告訴你的水平左右，基本上在 5% 左右或以下。

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

I have two questions if I may. The first one is just looking to ONE Transformation, and I'm sure that you will probably give us much more color on that in the CMD in February. Just wanted to get a bit of a sense of what would be the potential direction of travel of costs at a group level going forward, if you think that the trend of declining costs could be maintained going forward?

如果可以的話我有兩個問題。第一個只是專注於一個轉變，我相信您可能會在二月份的 CMD 中為我們提供更多詳細資訊。只是想稍微了解一下，如果您認為成本下降的趨勢未來能夠維持下去，那麼未來集團層面的成本變化的潛在方向是什麼？

The second thing is on capital. I mean, following Jose's comments in the call that organic capital generation will be stronger. I mean, you give us a sense a bit of how much that growth improvement could be and whether there could be a scope for incremental distributions in full year '25 results beyond the EUR3.2 billion announced from the disposal of Santander Polska.

第二件事是關於資本。我的意思是，正如何塞在電話會議上所說，有機資本生成將會更加強勁。我的意思是，您能讓我們稍微了解一下這種成長改善的程度，以及除了宣佈出售 Santander Polska 銀行所獲得的 32 億歐元之外，25 年全年業績中是否還有增量分配的空間。

Thank you, Ignacio. Okay. First of all, I would tell you that costs remain under control, as you have seen on the first half, we're down 0.4 in euros year-on-year. And we reiterate our guidance to deliver lower cost in current euros in '25 versus '24. H1 cost in absolute terms and cost growth remaining below and revenue growth in constant euros as we see.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。好的。首先，我想告訴你，成本仍在控制之中，正如你在上半年看到的，我們的成本比去年同期下降了 0.4 歐元。我們重申我們的指導方針，即 2025 年以當前歐元計算的成本將低於 2024 年。如我們所見，上半年的絕對成本和成本成長仍低於以不變歐元計算的收入成長。

Short-term costs are higher as we invest, it's very important to understand what are we doing, okay? If I give you some particular examples, we're deploying Plard in Brazil, in Mexico and in Chile.

由於我們投資時短期成本較高，因此了解自己在做什麼非常重要，好嗎？如果我給你舉一些具體的例子，我們正在巴西、墨西哥和智利部署Plard。

And at the same time, we still have [BAMPA] the old platform basically running at the same time. So even with that, we are actually being able to lower cost because we're controlling costs in all levels. So what this will tell you, this is a transitional year in that sense. And even with that, we're able to decrease cost given what we're doing. And it's not just that, we're deploying platforms in every single place.

同時，我們仍然基本上同時運行舊平台 [BAMPA]。因此，即使如此，我們實際上仍然能夠降低成本，因為我們在各個層面控製成本。所以從這個意義上來說，這告訴你，今年是過渡的一年。即使如此，我們仍然能夠根據我們正在做的事情來降低成本。不僅如此，我們還在各個地方部署平台。

For example, also the version 24 of our new app is being redeployed now in Brazil. And at the same time, we are basically shutting down what we had before and doing the same in every single country.

例如，我們的新應用程式的 24 版本現在也在巴西重新部署。同時，我們基本上關閉了先前的措施，並在每個國家都採取相同的做法。

So I believe that ONE Transformation is driving positive job. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 41.5% in the first half of '25, below the 42% target, and I believe we'll continue to do so. So we're very well under control on cost and basically working really hard to maintain it.

所以我相信 ONE Transformation 正在推動積極的工作。25 年上半年成本收入比改善至 41.5％，低於 42％ 的目標，我相信我們會繼續這樣做。因此，我們很好地控制了成本，並且基本上非常努力地維持它。

So in terms of capital, Ignacio, organic capital generation, thinking about how much capital we are going to be generating from profits, it's going to remain at the same level, might be a little bit better in the second half. Risk-weighted asset growth tends to be lower in the second half because asset rotation initiatives tend to concentrate in the second half.

因此，就資本而言，伊格納西奧，有機資本生成，考慮我們將從利潤中產生多少資本，它將保持在同一水平，下半年可能會好一點。由於資產輪動措施往往集中在下半年，因此下半年風險加權資產成長趨於下降。

So if you look at the first half, in the first quarter, we did around EUR2 billion in risk-weighted assets, EUR12 billion in the second quarter. We still are targeting between EUR40 billion to EUR45 billion. So most of the asset rotation initiatives tend to concentrate in the second half.

因此，如果你看一下上半年，在第一季度，我們的風險加權資產約為 20 億歐元，在第二季度為 120 億歐元。我們的目標仍然是400億歐元至450億歐元之間。因此，大多數資產輪動措施往往集中在下半年。

Also, although we guided for around 60 basis points of regulatory charges this year, around 20 to 25 have been postponed to next year. So now we are looking at, let's say, around 40 basis points, so we still have 20 left. So with all of this, I think you have all the numbers to look at what the capital ratio could be by the end of the year. And what we said and we reiterate is that excess capital above 13%, subject to regulatory approvals and the Board of Directors will be distributed as share buybacks. But again, subject to regulatory approvals and the Board of Directors.

此外，儘管我們預計今年的監管費用約為 60 個基點，但約有 20 至 25 個基點已推遲到明年。所以現在我們看到的大約是 40 個基點，所以我們還剩下 20 個基點。因此，透過所有這些，我認為您已經掌握了所有數據，可以預測到今年年底的資本比率會達到多少。我們說過並重申的是，超過 13% 的超額資本，需經監管部門批准和董事會批准，以股票回購的形式進行分配。但同樣，這需要獲得監管部門和董事會的批准。

Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.

安德烈亞·菲爾特里（Andrea Filtri），Mediobanca。

You're only 45 basis points away from your best case scenario on ONE Transformation implementation. Does this mean that we have already seen the benefits of this transformation? Or could you go below 41% cost income in coming years? If so, what is the next stage?

您距離 ONE Transformation 實施的最佳情況僅差 45 個基點。這是否意味著我們已經看到了這種轉變帶來的好處？或者未來幾年成本收入能否低於 41%？如果是的話，下一步是什麼？

The second question is on Consumer, which is representing a drag to group RoTE. Why is that? And when will we see this segment no longer dragging down group profitability?

第二個問題是關於消費者的，這對 RoTE 集團來說是一個拖累。這是為什麼？我們什麼時候才能看到這部分不再拖累集團獲利能力？

Thank you, Andrea. First of all, I think that you're going to have a lot of fun in the Investor Day because that's exactly what we will be talking about in terms of ONE Transformation. I really do believe that you're seeing the tip of the iceberg on what we're doing there, given that as I explained to Ignacio, we're still basically running and deploying some of the platforms and running the old platforms at the same time.

謝謝你，安德里亞。首先，我認為您將在投資者日上獲得很多樂趣，因為這正是我們在「一個轉型」中要討論的內容。我確實相信，你看到的只是我們在那裡所做工作的冰山一角，因為正如我向伊格納西奧解釋的那樣，我們基本上仍在運行和部署一些平台，同時運行舊平台。

As I said, '25, '26 are transitional years. For example, Payments Hub, which is very powerful. And already, as I told you, I mean, a lot of our payments are going through there are still running in parallel lines because, for example, the regulator in Mexico has not allowed us to close down transfer.

正如我所說，25、26 年是過渡年。例如Payments Hub，它的功能非常強大。正如我所說的，我們的許多付款仍在並行進行，因為例如墨西哥的監管機構不允許我們關閉轉帳。

So I'm still basically running two platforms at the same time, the same with the credit card platform, the same in many of the different things that we're doing. And once basically, these platforms are finished and deployed in all the countries, you're actually decommissioning the old ones, the commissioning teams of FTEs that are basically doing manual processes, et cetera. So remember that transformation also is simplification. If you have seen, for example, product catalog in the group on front is basically down more than 40%, and we'll continue to do so in the following years.

所以我基本上仍然同時運行兩個平台，信用卡平台也是如此，我們所做的許多不同的事情也是如此。一旦這些平台基本完工並部署到所有國家，您實際上就會停用舊平台，停用基本上執行手動流程的 FTE 偵錯團隊等等。所以請記住轉變也是一種簡化。例如，如果你已經看到，前面組的產品目錄基本上下降了 40% 以上，在接下來的幾年裡我們還會繼續這樣做。

And we continue to lower products and simplify what we do. The back end is a little bit more difficult. But once -- I mean, we are in runoff with some of the portfolios, this actually will help us also in the operations side because we will be able to decommission a lot more than we do today. So all in all, just to answer your question, no, I think we're going to be able to deliver much more than we have in front of us today.

我們將繼續降低產品價格並簡化我們的工作。後端稍微有點困難。但一旦——我的意思是，我們對一些投資組合進行了決選，這實際上也會在運營方面幫助我們，因為我們將能夠比現在退役更多的東西。總而言之，只是為了回答你的問題，不，我認為我們將能夠提供比今天更多的東西。

In terms of Consumer, I don't know, Jose, if you would like to comment to that one.

關於消費者，我不知道何塞，你是否願意對此發表評論。

No, I think, I will separate three components in Consumer. Consumer includes Openbank that is doing very well. We already have $5 billion in deposits in the US, over USD5 billion from 850,000 customers, so the strategy in the US is working. And we will be adding more products over the next few quarters to be a full-fledged bank, digital bank in the US with Openbank. So that's going very well.

不，我想，我會在消費者中分離出三個組件。消費者包括表現非常好的 Openbank。我們在美國已經擁有 50 億美元的存款，來自 85 萬客戶的存款超過 50 億美元，因此在美國實施的策略正在發揮作用。我們將在未來幾季增加更多產品，與 Openbank 合作，成為一家成熟的美國銀行和數位銀行。一切進展順利。

In Europe, it has over around EUR20 billion in deposits and also capturing clients very well. So Openbank is doing as expected, and I would say, going even faster than we expected in the US. Auto US Auto US is doing very well. You can see that the cost of risk is a lot better than we expected. We see stability in NII.

在歐洲，它擁有約200億歐元的存款，並且擁有良好的客戶群。因此，Openbank 的表現符合預期，而且我想說，它在美國的發展速度甚至比我們預期的還要快。Auto US Auto US 表現非常好。您可以看到風險成本比我們預期的要好得多。我們看到 NII 處於穩定狀態。

Obviously, as we do less EVs, we will see an expansion of NII that we have already seen that, but it will accelerate towards the end of the year and next year. And obviously, the consequence is that we will have to pay more taxes. Tax rate is still below 10% in the US, but it will gradually normalize, again, starting in the third, fourth quarter due to the impact of EVs.

顯然，隨著電動車數量的減少，我們將看到 NII 的擴張，我們已經看到了這一點，但它將在今年年底和明年加速。顯然，其後果就是我們必須繳納更多的稅。美國的稅率目前仍低於10%，但受電動車的影響，從第三、第四季開始稅率將逐漸正常化。

And next year, it should gradually increase. And the weakness, and you're right, is in Consumer Europe. And this is due basically to the impact of rates. Although we have no sensitivity to rates in Consumer Europe, this is a business that is very sensitive, highly sensitive to volumes. And the car registration in Europe are down in most countries. So we are suffering a little bit from volumes.

明年，這一數字應該會逐漸增加。你說得對，弱點就在於歐洲消費者。這主要是由於利率的影響。雖然我們對歐洲消費品市場的利率並不敏感，但這個業務對交易量非常敏感。歐洲大多數國家的汽車登記量都在下降。因此，我們在數量上遇到了一些困難。

But if you look at quarter-on-quarter, cost of risk is already normalizing. So we are very constructive in terms of the returns, the path to normalization of returns in Consumer Europe quarter after quarter in the coming quarters. Lower rates will definitely help with volumes. We are seeing that already, and lower rates will help with cost of risk as well.

但如果你看季度環比情況，風險成本已經正常化。因此，我們對回報以及未來幾季歐洲消費品市場回報正常化的路徑非常有建設性。較低的利率肯定有助於提高銷售量。我們已經看到了這一點，較低的利率也將有助於降低風險成本。

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Kind of two follow-up questions. You've made a 16% RoTE in the first half. Obviously, the target for the full year is 16.5%. So it's a step up. Maybe you can talk us through sort of big picture, what's going to drive that step up?

兩種後續問題。您在上半場的 RoTE 為 16%。顯然，全年的目標是16.5%。所以這是一個進步。也許您可以向我們介紹一下整體情況，是什麼推動了這項進步？

And the follow-up, which I think might be part of the explanation is around Consumer. Jose and Hector, I heard your comments around the medium-term outlook. I'm wondering that 10% return in Consumer at the moment, how much is it dragged down by the launches of Openbank in the different countries, both in Europe and the US. Just wondering if there's a front book, back book dynamic there.

我認為後續部分解釋可能與消費者有關。何塞和赫克托，我聽到了你們關於中期前景的評論。我想知道，目前消費者的 10% 回報率，在歐洲和美國不同國家推出 Openbank 會對其造成多大程度的拖累。只是想知道那裡是否有前書和後書的動態。

And the second question, also a follow-up on Brazil. On the provision side, should we -- when do you expect the peak in provisions? Obviously, rates are still high for the time being, but expected to come down early next year or late this year. When would you expect provisions to peak because there's still a bit of room until you reach that 5% cost of risk charge that you've guided for?

第二個問題也是關於巴西的後續問題。在供應方面，我們－您預期供應量何時達到高峰？顯然，目前利率仍然很高，但預計明年年初或今年年底利率將會下降。您預計撥備何時會達到峰值，因為在達到您指導的 5% 風險費用成本之前仍有一些空間？

Thank you, Alvaro. Okay. First of all, it's important to say that if you saw this second quarter, we're already at 16.2% in terms of RoTE, okay? It is important to assess that it's also due to the change of the model that we're doing, becoming number one bank to our customers because ONE Transformation is not just about cost. It's also about changing the model about how we manage clients.

謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。好的。首先，重要的是要說，如果你看到第二季度，我們的 RoTE 已經達到了 16.2%，好嗎？重要的是要評估，這也是由於我們正在進行的模式的改變，成為客戶心目中的首選銀行，因為「一次轉型」不僅僅與成本有關。這也與改變我們管理客戶的模式有關。

So as you have seen, we have already increased tremendously the number of active customers, the amount of products that we sell to these customers. And that's why you see fees, for example, in retail, you see fees numbers basically growing 8% year-on-year.

正如您所看到的，我們已經大幅增加了活躍客戶的數量以及我們向這些客戶銷售的產品數量。這就是為什麼你會看到費用，例如在零售業，你會看到費用數字基本上比去年同期成長 8%。

This is basically because we are selling much more products to our customers and penetrating that client base at the same time that we gather new customers, okay? So we will continue towards that, and that's helping us basically to go not just depend on the NII, but also to get fees and commissions that are helping us in the bottom line. So it's very important to understand that. And we do believe that we're going to be able to tell you and to get to the RoTE that we indicated in the guidance, all right?

這主要是因為我們在向客戶銷售更多產品、滲透客戶群的同時，也聚集了新客戶，好嗎？因此，我們將繼續朝著這個方向努力，這基本上幫助我們不僅依賴國家資訊基礎架構，而且還能獲得有助於我們獲利的費用和佣金。所以理解這一點非常重要。我們確實相信我們能夠告訴您並達到我們在指南中指出的 RoTE，好嗎？

In terms of Consumer, I think Jose gave you a pretty good explanation of what's going on there. It is important to say that also Manheim in the US has helped us quite a lot. It's very strong. It's up 6 points. I was looking at the numbers that I explained you every quarter about delinquencies and also delinquencies above 90 days, we are repossessing no more than 65% of the cards. That's basically still far ahead -- far away from the pre-COVID levels that we were around 90%.

就消費者而言，我認為 Jose 對那裡發生的事情給出了很好的解釋。值得一提的是，美國曼海姆律師事務所也給予了我們很大的幫助。它非常強大。已上升 6 個百分點。我查看了每個季度向您解釋的有關拖欠情況以及超過 90 天的拖欠情況的數字，我們收回的卡不超過 65％。這基本上仍然遙遙領先——遠低於新冠疫情之前約 90% 的水平。

And we are looking at the different mix of the portfolio and how it's basically performing. And we see, as Jose told you, that the worst is behind us in terms of that and also that volumes are getting much better in terms of the registrations that we see in Europe.

我們正在研究投資組合的不同組合及其基本表現。正如何塞所說，我們看到最糟糕的時期已經過去，而且從歐洲的註冊量來看，情況也好多了。

So I see that all in all, that is basically helping. Also Openbank is helping us to get better margins. As you've seen, we already gathered really good amount in deposits on the US. It has been a huge success, more than 140,000 customers coming in, deposits about $5 billion. And that's basically helping us in -- to manage that and to fund that operation.

所以我認為總的來說，這基本上是有幫助的。Openbank 也幫助我們獲得更好的利潤。如您所見，我們已經在美國累積了相當可觀的存款。它取得了巨大的成功，吸引了超過 14 萬名客戶，存款約 50 億美元。這基本上幫助我們管理這項業務並為它提供資金。

We have a little bit of cost, yes, because of the deployment on that, but that would be basically amortized over the next few years. It is important to say that Openbank in the US just started with the deposit gathering. We're going to have a full-fledged commercial bank towards the next few months in terms of where we are implementing that.

是的，由於部署的原因，我們確實產生了一些成本，但這些成本基本上會在未來幾年內攤提。值得一提的是，美國的Openbank才剛開始從事存款聚集業務。就實施情況而言，我們將在未來幾個月內擁有一家成熟的商業銀行。

But for example, in Germany or in Mexico, we have a full bank already operating there with a very good -- and I will not say in Mexico with very good results. In terms of Brazil, what I could tell you about is we wanted, as I said, to be conservative, and that's why we basically did the PMA. So we wanted to be conservative because we see what's going on in terms. It's important to understand the dynamics of the country. You have real rates that are 9.5 points.

但是例如，在德國或墨西哥，我們已經有一家完整的銀行在那裡運營，並且取得了非常好的業績——我不會說在墨西哥取得了非常好的業績。就巴西而言，我可以告訴你的是，正如我所說，我們希望保持保守，這就是我們基本上採取 PMA 的原因。因此，我們希望採取保守態度，因為我們了解正在發生的事情。了解這個國家的動態很重要。您的實際利率是 9.5 點。

That's probably in the OECD, the largest real rates. We're talking about rates at 15% with inflation and [562] plus the spreads, et cetera, you can imagine that we have some SMEs and some midsized corporates that are suffering a little bit given those rates.

這可能是經合組織中最高的實質利率。我們討論的是 15% 的利率加上通貨膨脹和[562]利差等等，你可以想像，在這些利率的影響下，我們的一些中小企業和一些中型企業會遭受一些損失。

I hope that with basically rates coming down, we will be able basically to drop the cost of risk in one sense, also get better margins because we see that if rates come down to the levels we expect in Brazil towards 12%, we're going to be at about 20% RoTE. So in that sense, we believe that we're under control, that the worst is over now and that we understand exactly how the portfolio is performing.

我希望隨著利率的下降，我們將能夠從某種意義上降低風險成本，同時獲得更好的利潤率，因為我們看到，如果利率降至我們預期的巴西水準 12%，我們的 RoTE 將達到 20% 左右。因此從這個意義上來說，我們相信我們已經掌控了局面，最糟糕的時期已經過去，我們確切地了解投資組合的表現。

If I may add very quickly on Consumer. It's true that there is a, let's say, a game of production, right? So post-COVID, the profitability of post-COVID production was extremely high. Then it was significantly lower. Now the post-COVID production is coming to an end.

如果我可以很快補充一下消費者的情況。確實存在一個，比如說，生產遊戲，對吧？因此，疫情過後，生產的獲利能力極高。然後它就明顯低了。如今，後疫情時代的生產即將結束。

So the low production, the low profitability production of the years following COVID is gaining relative weight. But as we produce, the new production is actually significantly higher profitability. So in the next few quarters, as the old low profitability production matures and we substitute that by the profitability, the production that we are producing today, which is significantly higher, we should also see much better returns in consumer.

因此，新冠疫情之後幾年的低產量、低獲利能力正在變得越來越重要。但隨著我們的生產，新產品的獲利能力實際上明顯更高。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，隨著舊的低盈利能力生產的成熟，我們用盈利能力（我們今天生產的產品）取代它，盈利能力明顯更高，我們也應該會看到消費者的回報更好。

Also remember that Consumer Europe has the Swiss franc mortgage provisions in there, which obviously is affecting results. But again, pretax profit in the US, also US is up 42% year-on-year. Pretax profit in Europe is flat year-on-year.

還要記住，歐洲消費者協會有瑞士法郎的抵押貸款條款，這顯然會影響結果。但美國的稅前利潤也較去年同期成長了 42%。歐洲稅前利潤較去年同期持平。

So again, despite these negative trends, the business is performing well. So truly, I mean, we are quite optimistic about the next three, four, five quarters to see a normalization of both cost of risk and profitability of the portfolio.

因此，儘管存在這些負面趨勢，但業務表現仍然良好。所以，我的意思是，我們對未來三、四、五個季度非常樂觀，看到投資組合的風險成本和獲利能力都正常化。

Now in Brazil, when it's going to normalize cost of risk? If you look at the three-month cost of risk, it was 4.5% every quarter last year, 4.5%, 4.5%, 4.5%, 4.5%. In the first two quarter of this year, it was 4.9%. We guided for something like between 4.7% to 4.8%. So we are slightly above what we expected.

現在在巴西，什麼時候才能讓風險成本正常化？如果你看三個月的風險成本，去年每季都是 4.5%，4.5%，4.5%，4.5%。今年前二季度，這一數字為4.9%。我們預計成長率在 4.7% 至 4.8% 之間。因此我們的結果略高於我們的預期。

Obviously, rates at 15%. We didn't think they were going to get to that level. They're going to stay at that level probably until year-end. But more importantly, when you look at the NII in the context of significantly higher rates, we have been repositioning the balance sheet a lot for lower rates.

顯然，利率為15%。我們不認為他們會達到那個水平。他們可能會保持這一水平直到年底。但更重要的是，當你在利率大幅上升的背景下看待國家資訊基礎設施時，我們已經對資產負債表進行了大量的重新調整，以適應較低的利率。

So when we look into 2026, the market expects rates to go down 250 basis points the balance sheet today would react to that extremely well. And we do not think cost of risk, as Hector said, on average, will go above 5% this year. Again, the provisions we've taken using CACEIS capital gains is a post-model adjustment because we want to be conservative, rates at 15% ahead of elections next year. But again, BAU cost of risk is below 5% in the first half, and we think it will remain more or less at this level for the rest of the year.

因此，當我們展望 2026 年時，市場預期利率將下降 250 個基點，而今天的資產負債表將對此做出非常好的反應。正如赫克託所說，我們認為今年的風險成本平均不會超過 5%。再次強調，我們使用 CACEIS 資本利得所採取的規定是模型後調整，因為我們希望在明年選舉前維持保守的利率，即 15%。但同樣，上半年的 BAU 風險成本低於 5%，我們認為今年剩餘時間內風險成本將基本維持在這個水準。

Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

卡洛斯·佩索托（Carlos Peixoto），CaixaBank。

A couple of questions from my side as well. First one would actually be related with the loan loss provisions at the Corporate Center. So you booked EUR98 million there this quarter. The previous one had already booked EUR99 million. I believe that those were related with NPL sales.

我這邊也有幾個問題。第一個實際上與企業中心的貸款損失準備有關。所以本季您在那裡預訂了 9800 萬歐元。此前該筆交易已預訂了 9,900 萬歐元。我相信這些與不良貸款銷售有關。

I was wondering if this is also the case this quarter? And also, if you could give us some visibility on what geographies those NPL sales relate to? And also, should we expect this to become the normal quarterly run rate of loan loss provisions at this unit for upcoming quarters?

我想知道本季是否也出現這種情況？另外，您能否告訴我們這些不良貸款銷售涉及哪些地區？此外，我們是否應該預期這將成為未來幾季該部門貸款損失準備金的正常季度運作率？

And then just going back to Brazil, if you could give us some view on what you expect in terms of NII evolution over the coming quarters, considering the derisking of the portfolio you are mentioning the fact that the volumes are down as well. How will that play out in terms of the final print for NII?

然後回到巴西，如果您可以給我們一些關於未來幾季 NII 演變的預期，考慮到投資組合的風險降低，您提到的交易量也在下降。這對於 NII 的最終印刷版將產生怎樣的影響？

Okay. So provisions at the Corporate Center, as we explained and Hector explained during the call, these were taken to basically accelerate charge-offs to lower the NPL ratio, which is below 3%, 2.91%. We do not think this is recurring. So we should not expect this to happen every quarter in the coming quarters. This was, let's say, a decision to accelerate charge-offs to bring the NPL below 3%. So do not expect the same level of provisions at the Corporate Center going forward.

好的。因此，正如我們和赫克託在電話會議中所解釋的那樣，企業中心的準備金基本上是為了加速沖銷以降低不良貸款率，目前不良貸款率低於 3%，為 2.91%。我們認為這種情況不會再發生。因此，我們不應該期望這種情況在未來幾季都會發生。可以說，這是加速沖銷以使不良貸款率降至 3% 以下的決定。因此，不要指望企業中心今後能提供同樣水準的服務。

NII in Brazil. I just referred to how we've been repositioning the balance sheet for the rate environment that is going to come next year. So let's go a little bit in detail about the first half. So average balances for loans were up 5% year-on-year in the first half and yield on loans was up 63 basis points. Deposits, and this is the key going forward, were up 8%.

巴西的NII。我剛才提到我們如何根據明年的利率環境重新調整資產負債表。那麼讓我們詳細地了解一下前半部。因此，上半年貸款平均餘額年增5%，貸款收益率上升63個基點。存款（這是未來發展的關鍵）成長了 8%。

Demand deposits was up 6% and time deposits was up 9%. Obviously, the deposits is where you see the sensitivity and the yield of deposits was up 131 basis points. So net-net, we had a customer margin that contracted 68 basis points year-on-year despite which NII was actually up year-on-year in Brazil, slightly up.

活期存款增加6%，定期存款增加9%。顯然，存款是敏感的方面，存款收益率上升了 131 個基點。因此，淨額方面，我們的客戶利潤率同比下降了 68 個基點，儘管巴西的 NII 實際上比去年同期有所上升，而且略有上升。

So we've been working a lot on improving not only the quality of the asset side, but the quality of the liability side. And there is what we think is where the gain is going to come in the coming quarters. Rates are at 15%. The market expects rates to go down 250 basis points, maybe to 12.5% by year-end. So in 2027, we should see rates at around 12% on average.

因此，我們一直在努力提高資產方面的質量，也努力提高負債方面的品質。我們認為，未來幾個季度，收益將會出現。利率為 15%。市場預計利率將下降 250 個基點，到年底可能降至 12.5%。因此到 2027 年，我們應該會看到平均利率達到 12% 左右。

And in our models, at 12% rates, the return on equity of the bank moves to 20%. So we are quite confident that if rates are on average 12% in 2027, the return on equity in Brazil will exceed or be at or exceed 20%. And again, this is due to the work that we've been conducting in the last few quarters to improve the quality of the asset side, but mostly the quality of our funding structure and our deposits.

在我們的模型中，當利率為 12% 時，銀行的股本回報率將升至 20%。因此，我們非常有信心，如果 2027 年利率平均為 12%，那麼巴西的股本回報率將超過或達到 20%。再次，這是因為我們在過去幾個季度一直在努力提高資產方面的質量，但主要是提高我們的融資結構和存款的品質。

Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ignacio Cerezo。

I got one and coming back, summarizing a little bit actually some of the questions my colleagues have done. If I'm doing the numbers right, actually, your second half of the year on a group basis needs to be around 5%, 6% higher than the first half in terms of net profit to get to the guidance.

我收到一份並回來，實際上總結了一下我的同事所做的一些問題。如果我的數字沒有錯的話，實際上，你們下半年的集團淨利潤需要比上半年高出 5% 到 6% 左右才能達到預期。

So if you tell us geographically, where is that growth going to come from, especially considering that, I mean, the currency headwinds seem to be compounding a little bit actually and you have seasonality in the US.

因此，如果您從地理位置告訴我們，這種增長將從何而來，特別是考慮到，我的意思是，貨幣逆風似乎實際上有點加劇，而且美國有季節性。

And the second question is on the regulation. I mean, the 20 basis points you're postponing or shifting back into '26, if you have any color and preliminary information basically on what is going to be the underlying regulation in '26 over and above those 20 basis points?

第二個問題是關於法規的。我的意思是，您推遲或轉回 26 年的 20 個基點，您是否有任何關於 26 年除了這 20 個基點之外的基本監管內容的詳細信息和初步信息？

Okay, Ignacio. In terms of what -- you're basically asking in terms of where do we see basically the second half, I could tell you that, first of all, I explained in detail already a lot of the details that we're doing in ONE Transformation, while we're focusing on basically becoming the number one bank to our customers, how do we see that?

好的，伊格納西奧。就什麼而言 - 你基本上是在問我們對下半年的基本情況有何看法，我可以告訴你，首先，我已經詳細解釋了我們在 ONE Transformation 中所做的很多細節，同時我們專注於成為客戶心目中的頭號銀行，我們如何看待這一點？

But it's very important to say that we have a really consistent track record of implementation in everything that we say, okay? So it wasn't that, that makes us confident that we will achieve our targets, as I said. And based on the macro outlook for '25, we expect, first of all, to reiterate our guidance of EUR62 billion in revenue for the year despite the 5% headwind from FX translation that we have seen.

但非常重要的一點是，我們所說的每一句話都有真正一致的執行記錄，好嗎？所以，正如我所說，這並不是讓我們有信心實現我們的目標。基於 25 年的宏觀前景，首先，儘管我們看到外匯翻譯帶來的 5% 的阻力，但我們仍預計今年的收入將達到 620 億歐元。

On the first half, revenues are growing 5% year-on-year in constant currency, was spread this to growth and continue to the second half, given by improving consumer revenue momentum. That's basically up mid-single digits. We see also continued strong growth in Payments and Wealth and also CIB. Remember that CIB had a second tough Q2 due to the fact that markets were basically after Liberation Day for eight weeks, basically completely off.

上半年，營收以固定匯率計算年增 5%，由於消費者收入動能改善，這一成長動能將延續到下半年。這基本上是一個位數的中段成長。我們也看到支付和財富以及 CIB 繼續強勁成長。請記住，由於解放日之後的八週內市場基本上完全處於停擺狀態，CIB 經歷了第二次艱難的第二季。

So that basically is helping us out because we believe that that's not going to be the case on the second half. In retail, revenue is up 1.6% in the first half, flat NII, but fees growing at 8%, what I said about ONE Transformation, very important. We're doing much more business with our customers. We're penetrating the client base, and we expect that revenue basically to continue basically doing well, maybe flattish for the full year, but we will continue to see growth in fees.

所以這基本上對我們有幫助，因為我們相信下半年不會再有這種情況。在零售業，上半年收入增長了 1.6%，NII 持平，但費用增長了 8%，這就是我所說的“一個轉型”，非常重要。我們與客戶的業務往來日益增加。我們正在滲透客戶群，我們預計收入基本上會繼續保持良好狀態，全年可能持平，但我們將繼續看到費用的成長。

At the country level, we expect Mexico growing revenue high single digit, the UK up low single digits and offsetting low single-digit declines that we see in Brazil and in Spain, all right? In Consumer, we expect revenues to grow mid-single digits, both in the US and Europe, driven by NII, which is also expected to be up mid-single digits, okay.

從國家層級來看，我們預期墨西哥的收入將成長高個位數，英國的收入將成長低個位數，並抵消巴西和西班牙的收入低個位數的下降，好嗎？在消費者方面，我們預期美國和歐洲的營收將實現中等個位數成長，這得益於NII的推動，預計NII也將實現中等個位數成長。

And in CIB, as I already explained, we continue to expect the growth to mid-single digits for the year. And if the market basically is strong, that also maybe it's going to give us an extra tailwind. In Wealth, revenues were up 14% in the first half, and we expect low double-digit growth for the full year. So that basically tells you 100% of what's going on there.

至於 CIB，正如我已經解釋過的，我們預計今年的成長率將達到中等個位數。如果市場基本上強勁，那也許會為我們帶來額外的順風。在財富管理方面，上半年收入成長了 14%，我們預計全年收入將達到低兩位數成長。所以這基本上告訴了你那裡發生的一切。

Just one final comment. Remember that the other results line in 2024 was abnormally high. You already saw a substantial improvement in the first half. So we would also expect a better second half relative to the year to last year. So again, yes, we are confident that we will meet our 16.5% return on tangible equity in the year, absolutely.

最後再說一句。請記住，2024 年的其他結果線異常高。您已經看到了上半年的顯著進步。因此，我們預計下半年的表現將比去年同期更好。所以，是的，我們有信心在今年實現 16.5% 的有形資產回報率，絕對是如此。

The second question on regulation. Well, I think it's early days. I think these 20, 25 basis points is the SME model in Spain that we need to recalibrate. Other than that, it's -- we see very little else at this point. But again, we need to wait to see the calendar of inspections, et cetera, by the ECB, which will come later in the year.

第二個問題關於監管。嗯，我認為現在還為時過早。我認為這些 20、25 個基點是我們需要重新調整的西班牙中小企業模型。除此之外，我們目前幾乎看不到其他東西。但同樣，我們需要等待歐洲央行在今年稍後公佈檢查日程等。

So I think for purposes of estimating capital, I would use more or less the same amount that we had this year. We'll see if we have a different guidance towards the end of the year, we'll communicate that. But today, I don't see anything different from what we saw in 2025.

因此，我認為，為了估算資本，我會使用與今年大致相同的金額。我們將看看年底是否會有不同的指導，我們將傳達這一點。但今天，我看到的與 2025 年的情況並沒有什麼不同。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的克里斯·哈勒姆。

Hector, you talked earlier about the parts of the business in Brazil where you still feel confident versus where you're looking to pull back slightly in credit cards, I think. Is that a temporary phenomenon or should we assume that's the new normal? And how would that feed into the NII growth algorithm in terms of volume versus margin?

赫克托，您之前談到了巴西業務的哪些部分讓您仍然充滿信心，而我認為，在信用卡業務方面，您打算稍微縮減一些。這只是暫時現象，還是我們應該認為這是新常態？那麼，從數量與利潤的角度來看，這會如何影響 NII 成長演算法呢？

And then on the top-up in Brazil, I guess, why now? Was there a specific sort of approximate cause within Q2 to trigger that aside from the -- obviously, the availability of proceeds from CACEIS?

那麼關於巴西的儲值，我想，為什麼是現在呢？除了 CACEIS 的收益之外，Q2 中是否還有其他特定的近似原因引發這種情況？

And then second question on the UK and the AXA headlines last week. So I understand you already have a provision in place here, but it would be prejudicial to disclose the amount. But I guess in broad terms, is the potential delta on that provision, i.e., whether it would need to be sized up or down material to the CET1 walk for '25 or '26?

第二個問題是關於上週英國和 AXA 的頭條新聞。因此，我知道您已經在這裡制定了規定，但披露金額會造成不利影響。但我想，從廣義上講，這項規定的潛在增量，即是否需要根據 25 年或 26 年的 CET1 步行進行調整？

Thank you, Chris. Okay. In Brazil, it's not exactly a pullback. I mean, as we know, and I have explained basically in the past, we are very flexible in the way we manage our portfolios. And we manage the portfolios as we see fit, okay?

謝謝你，克里斯。好的。在巴西，這並不完全是一次撤退。我的意思是，正如我們所知，而且我過去也解釋過，我們管理投資組合的方式非常靈活。我們以我們認為合適的方式管理投資組合，好嗎？

So what we basically started looking in Brazil was that open market was starting to be pretty difficult to manage. So we decided basically to concentrate on our own customers and to just give credit cards to them. So open market, we will go back when we see basically a much better market, even though labor market is still strong in Brazil and the economy is doing much better than we have seen.

因此，我們開始在巴西發現，開放市場開始變得相當難以管理。因此，我們決定主要專注於我們自己的客戶，並只向他們提供信用卡。因此，開放市場，當我們看到市場基本上好轉時，我們就會回歸，儘管巴西的勞動力市場仍然強勁，經濟表現也比我們所看到的要好得多。

Nonetheless, I think it's important to be conservative at this point and move the portfolio when you have these high rates basically to other more secure things that like I was telling you about auto and about payroll loans, which are what we call consignado, which is much better in terms of cost of risk at this point, they would basically -- exactly, as you were saying, this NII volume versus margin because we have now basically investing in things that have less margin than we used to have when you basically have much more credit cards and unsecured personal loans. We will go back to them when we see basically the economy in a different way, and we see rates starting to come down and a better macro scenario.

儘管如此，我認為現在採取保守態度很重要，在利率較高的情況下，應該將投資組合轉移到其他更安全的東西上，比如我剛才告訴你的汽車貸款和工資貸款，也就是我們所說的 consignado，就目前的風險成本而言，它們基本上要好得多，正如你所說的，NII 量與保證金以前的貸款關係，因為我們現在現在有更多擔保金當我們從根本上以不同的方式看待經濟，看到利率開始下降和宏觀經濟狀況好轉時，我們就會回到這些政策上。

But this is exactly what we do, and we manage the portfolio. Look, very active. Our teams basically see pricing and they basically change the way we manage the portfolios on a weekly basis. And so it's important to say that, that's the way we manage that. And -- but this, as you were saying, is temporary.

但這正是我們所做的，我們管理投資組合。瞧，很活躍。我們的團隊基本上會查看定價，並且每週都會改變我們管理投資組合的方式。因此，重要的是要說，這就是我們管理它的方式。但正如你所說，這只是暫時的。

I do believe that when market basically clears up and we believe that it's a strong thing, we will get back into that and then margin could be a little better. And also basically, Jose explained you, that when rates basically go to 12%, our returns and the way we basically have positioned the portfolio will give us a lot better margin and a much better position and much better returns, as you have seen.

我確實相信，當市場基本上明朗並且我們相信這是一個強勁的市場時，我們就會回到這個狀態，然後利潤率可能會更好一些。而且基本上，Jose 向您解釋過，當利率基本上達到 12% 時，我們的回報以及我們基本上定位投資組合的方式將為我們提供更好的利潤率、更好的地位和更好的回報，正如您所見。

Okay. In terms of the AXA situation, regarding the UK's court decision in relation to the claim, we disagree with the outcome, and we are seeking to appeal. We do not expect the net impact of the judgment to be material for Santander given the provisions already made and the potential legal actions available. It's important to say also that no customers have suffered a loss as a consequence of the claim brought by AXA or the judgment. And given this is an ongoing legal matter, we are not able to comment any further, unfortunately.

好的。就 AXA 的情況而言，對於英國法院對該索賠的判決，我們不同意，並且正在尋求上訴。考慮到已經做出的規定和可能採取的法律行動，我們預計該判決對桑坦德銀行的淨影響不會很大。值得一提的是，沒有客戶因 AXA 提出的索賠或判決而遭受損失。鑑於這是一個正在進行的法律問題，很遺憾我們無法進一步發表評論。

You asked specifically if the capital path is going to be affected by this. Look, our pre-provision profit is going to be EUR37 billion, EUR38 billion this year, something like that, between EUR35 billion to EUR38 billion. This is immaterial really. Why now Brazilian provisions is because the capital gain happened right now. And we think given the level of rates, given we have presidential elections next year, we think we wanted to be prudent. It's as simple as that.

您特別詢問資本路徑是否會受到此影響。你看，我們今年的撥備前利潤將達到 370 億歐元、380 億歐元左右，大約在 350 億歐元到 380 億歐元之間。這確實不重要。為什麼現在是巴西的規定，是因為資本利得現在就發生了。我們認為，考慮到利率水平，考慮到明年我們將舉行總統選舉，我們應該謹慎行事。就這麼簡單。

Cecilia Romero, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的塞西莉亞·羅梅羅。

I have two, one in Spain and another one on litigation. The first one in Spain, cost of risk is down quarter-on-quarter, but still running higher than peers. Given backdrop continue to be very supportive, how do you see Spanish cost of risk developing through the rest of the year? And what's your view on the medium-term trajectory?

我有兩個，一個在西班牙，另一個在訴訟方面。西班牙第一家，風險成本較上季下降，但仍高於同業。鑑於背景持續非常有利，您如何看待西班牙在今年剩餘時間內的風險成本發展？您對中期發展軌跡有何看法？

And in terms of Spanish NII, could you walk us through the expected dynamics in customer spreads for the remaining of the year? Given current trends with NII up quarter-on-quarter, do you now expect NII to perform better than the guidance of minus 5% fall issue earlier?

關於西班牙國家資訊基礎設施 (NII)，您能否向我們介紹今年剩餘時間內客戶利差的預期動態？鑑於目前 NII 環比成長的趨勢，您是否預期 NII 的表現會好於先前預測的下降 5% 的水平？

And the one on litigation is on Mexico. Mexico antitrust regulator has issued preliminary findings, namely several banks in a potential case of fixing on deferred credit card payments. Can you comment on the status of this investigation and whether it could impact your expectation for fees in Mexico going forward?

有關訴訟的案件涉及墨西哥。墨西哥反壟斷監管機構已發布初步調查結果，表示幾家銀行可能涉嫌對信用卡延期付款進行監管。您能否評論一下此次調查的現狀以及它是否會影響您對墨西哥未來費用的預期？

Okay. I will go to basically -- thank you, Cecilia. First of all, on the litigation in Mexico, we cannot comment at this point. There is no basically information about it that we can tell you. So that one is as much as I can say.

好的。我基本上會去——謝謝你，塞西莉亞。首先，關於墨西哥的訴訟，我們目前無法發表評論。我們無法向您提供關於此問題的基本資訊。我只能說這麼多了。

In terms of what we're doing in Spain, cost of risk, as you have seen, as you have said, is coming down.

就我們在西班牙所做的事情而言，正如您所看到的，風險成本正在下降。

And we are actually performing very well. The Spanish economy and the labor market are quite strong. And we see that, that will continue towards the end of the year. We don't see basically any changes whatsoever on that. On the other side, actually, we see the market coming very strong, and we see also good demand of credit on mortgages.

事實上，我們的表現非常好。西班牙經濟和勞動市場相當強勁。我們看到，這種情況將持續到今年年底。我們基本上沒有看到任何變化。另一方面，實際上，我們看到市場發展非常強勁，我們也看到抵押貸款信貸需求良好。

We see credit cards going up, a little bit of consumer loans coming in. So nothing to report there. I think it's much better than we expected.

我們看到信用卡數量在增加，還有少量消費貸款流入。因此沒有什麼好報告的。我認為它比我們預期的要好得多。

In terms of NII, if I remember correctly, we guided for NII down in Spain, 6% to 7%. Obviously, NII is behaving better. So now we think it will do better than that, maybe down 4% to 5%. We are still building the ALCO portfolio, adding government bonds at well over 3%. We bought some ALCO portfolio in the second quarter.

就NII而言，如果我沒記錯的話，我們預期西班牙的NII將下降6%至7%。顯然，NII 的表現更好。所以現在我們認為它會表現得更好，可能會下降 4% 到 5%。我們仍在建立 ALCO 投資組合，並增加了超過 3% 的政府債券。我們在第二季購買了一些 ALCO 投資組合。

The asset hedges are coming to an end. We are not hedging the repricing of mortgages anymore at this level of rates. We think rates are close or about to stabilize. And we obviously put all the funding floating already.

資產對沖即將結束。在這種利率水準下，我們不再對沖抵押貸款的重新定價。我們認為利率已接近或即將穩定。顯然，我們已經將所有資金投入到位。

So the hedging is -- still some hedging coming from the ALCO portfolio, not a lot more though. So the improvement is coming from cost of deposits. Cost of deposits first half this year relative to last year is down 30 basis points. Now cost of deposits is 67 basis points relative to 98 basis points last year. So extremely good deposit cost management, and that's what is going to drive the better NII performance we expect this year relative to the guidance we gave in the previous quarter.

因此，對沖仍然是來自 ALCO 投資組合的一些對沖，但不是很多。因此，改善來自於存款成本。今年上半年存款成本較去年同期下降了30個基點。目前存款成本為 67 個基點，而去年為 98 個基點。因此，存款成本管理非常好，這將推動我們今年預期的 NII 表現優於上一季給予的指導。

Peter Smith, Autonomous.

彼得·史密斯，自治。

Just a follow-up on Spain. The volumes ex repos were weaker year-on-year in Q2 and also compared to the trends that we've seen in Q1 and remain below the market. And what -- now that you've improved the customer spread, at what sort of level of customer spread would you need to see, so volumes pick up again to continue on an NII growth trajectory into '26 and '27?

這只是對西班牙的後續關注。第二季回購交易量較去年同期減弱，與第一季的趨勢相比也較弱，且仍低於市場水準。那麼——現在您已經改善了客戶分佈，那麼您需要看到什麼樣的客戶分佈水平，以便交易量再次回升，繼續在 26 年和 27 年保持 NII 成長軌跡？

And then just a follow-up on the provision on Brazil. I mean, with rates expected to be lower, there's obviously going to be a volatility on the elections to be managed. But what would need to happen for the provision in Brazil to be released back into the P&L or to be used towards provisions in the future? What are the macro parameters that would need to improve?

然後是關於巴西條款的後續問題。我的意思是，由於預期利率會降低，顯然選舉會出現波動，需要加以控制。但是，要怎麼做才能將巴西的撥備重新釋放到損益表中或用於未來的撥備呢？哪些宏觀參數需要改進？

Peter, I mean, on your question on Brazil, it's important to tell you that we -- as I said before, and Jose already explained that we don't see expected losses to change, okay? So we basically continue on the same trend over there. In terms of what we see in terms of Spain -- .

彼得，我的意思是，關於你關於巴西的問題，重要的是要告訴你，正如我之前所說，我們並不認為預期的損失會發生變化，好嗎？所以我們基本上延續了同樣的趨勢。就我們所看到的西班牙而言-- 。

If I -- ? (multiple speakers)

如果我-- ？ （多位發言者）

Yes, sorry.

是的，抱歉。

What I want to say is one thing. The increase in cost of risk in Brazil is not coming from individuals. Employment levels are very strong. The economy is doing very well. It's coming mostly from companies and the increase in Chapter 11 bankruptcies due to higher rates.

我想說的是一件事。巴西風險成本的增加並非來自個人。就業水準非常高。經濟發展得很好。這主要源自於公司以及由於利率上升導致的第 11 章破產數量的增加。

So some of the higher leverage companies are suffering because of the level of rates. So there is a limit to the deterioration in asset quality, obviously, because this only affects a very small portion of our balance sheet.

因此，一些高槓桿公司因利率水準而遭受損失。因此，資產品質的惡化顯然是有限的，因為這只影響我們資產負債表中很小的一部分。

So again, it's with the strong levels of employment, the ones we have today and with the expectation of lower rates, it's because we believe clearly, cost of risk will go down next year. So these are the variables that really matter. But it's really important to mention that the increase in cost of risk is not retail. It's not individuals or SMEs. It's mostly midsized, large companies that are having problems with interest rates.

所以，再說一次，由於我們今天擁有強勁的就業水平，並且預期利率會降低，這是因為我們清楚地相信，明年風險成本將會下降。所以這些才是真正重要的變數。但真正值得一提的是，風險成本的增加並不是零售成本。這不是個人或中小企業。大部分中型和大型公司都面臨利率問題。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Okay. Let me give you a little bit of the dynamics of what's going on in the Spanish market, okay? Given the recent events and everything, we are seeing a drop, an important drop in spreads and in margins because of tremendous competition in the market, okay? And we are being very disciplined in order to manage and to concentrate on profitability, okay? So it's important for you to understand that some of our competitors have decided to do mortgages and, I would say, all the way down to [165].

好的。讓我來介紹一下西班牙市場的動態，好嗎？考慮到最近發生的事件和其他一切，由於市場競爭激烈，我們看到利差和利潤率大幅下降，好嗎？為了管理和集中精力實現盈利，我們採取了非常嚴格的紀律，好嗎？因此，重要的是你要明白，我們的一些競爭對手已經決定要做抵押貸款，我想說，一直到[165]。

We don't think that that's the right thing to do. We believe that the market basically is not profitable to do them at those levels, and we are being very disciplined in that.

我們認為這不是正確的做法。我們認為，在這樣的層面上做這些事情基本上對市場來說是無利可圖的，而且我們在這方面非常自律。

And the volumes that we're basically doing are at a much better margins than those. So when are you going to see us back doing much more bigger volumes when spreads basically go to the right level because we do believe that the market would basically change and react to that and be more, I would say, more -- the right word in English is be more intelligent or smart in the way we're managing the margins. So in that sense, we have all the firepower, but we are basically expecting that the market will basically be much better, and we're concentrated also on our big customers and in-house customers and taking advantage of that.

而我們所做的交易量基本上比這些的利潤率好得多。那麼，當價差基本上達到正確水平時，您什麼時候會看到我們重新進行更大的交易量，因為我們確實相信市場會從根本上發生變化並對此做出反應，而且會更加，我想說，更加——用英語來說，正確的詞是，我們在管理保證金的方式上更加聰明或更智能。因此從這個意義上來說，我們擁有所有的火力，但我們基本上預計市場將會變得更好，我們也專注於我們的大客戶和內部客戶，並利用這一點。

And also, you can take a look at what we're doing in terms of fees and penetrating the customer base, what we're doing in credit cards. For example, volume in credit cards in Spain grew really strongly these past six months because we believe there is an opportunity in the consumer side, as I said, even though also we see some of the SMEs basically coming back to the market, and we are basically fulfilling that volume demand and also CIB with a lot of interesting opportunities, and we're basically going back to the market in that sense. So I do believe that we could have much better volume, but we need a market that is smart and organized in order to be able to do that.

此外，您還可以看看我們在費用和客戶群滲透方面所做的工作，以及我們在信用卡方面所做的工作。例如，西班牙的信用卡交易量在過去六個月裡增長非常強勁，因為我們相信消費者方面存在機會，正如我所說，儘管我們也看到一些中小企業基本上重返市場，我們基本上滿足了這種數量需求，CIB 也有很多有趣的機會，從這個意義上說，我們基本上正在重返市場。因此我確實相信我們可以有更好的銷量，但我們需要一個聰明且有組織的市場才能做到這一點。

Thanks very much, Hector and Jose. This is the last question. So this brings our call to an end. I would like to thank everybody for joining us on what is a busy day. If you've got any follow-up questions, the whole Investor Relations team is available at your disposal through this week.

非常感謝，赫克托和何塞。這是最後一個問題。我們的通話到此結束。我感謝大家在如此忙碌的一天與我們在一起。如果您有任何後續問題，本週整個投資者關係團隊將竭誠為您服務。

Thanks very much, and have a good rest of the day.

非常感謝，祝您今天剩餘時間愉快。