Banco Santander SA (SAN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Everyone -- and thank you for joining Santander's 2024 results presentation. I'm Raul Sinna, Global Head of Investor Relations, and I'm delighted to be here joining our Executive Chair, Ana Botin; our CEO, Hector Grisi; and our CFO, Jose Garcia Cantera.

大家好，感謝大家參加桑坦德銀行 2024 年業績發表會。我是全球投資者關係主管 Raul Sinna，很高興能與我們的執行主席 Ana Botin 一起來到這裡；我們的執行長 Hector Grisi；以及我們的財務長 Jose Garcia Cantera。

Today's presentation will follow the usual structure for full year presentations. Ana will kick off the presentation by talking about our results and achievements in the context of our strategy. Then Hector will add detail to our financial performance. Finally, Ana will conclude with our outlook for 2025 before opening for Q&A.

今天的演講將遵循全年演講的通常結構。Ana 將在演講開始時介紹我們戰略背景下的成果和成就。然後赫克托 (Hector) 將詳細介紹我們的財務業績。最後，Ana 將在開始問答環節之前總結我們對 2025 年的展望。

Ana, over to you.

安娜，交給你了。

Thank you Raul and welcome everybody to our full year results presentation. 2024 was another record year, the third consecutive year of record results for Santander. It shows the benefits of our strategy, the resilience of our business model. As we said in '23, we have entered a new phase of value creation, and this has enabled us to deliver or exceed all our key financial targets.

謝謝 Raul，歡迎大家參加我們的全年業績報告。 2024 年是另一個創紀錄的年份，這是桑坦德銀行連續第三年創下創紀錄的表現。它展示了我們策略的優勢和商業模式的彈性。正如我們在23年所說的那樣，我們已經進入了價值創造的新階段，這使我們能夠實現或超越所有關鍵財務目標。

Profit reached a record EUR12.6 billion supported by both strong revenue growth and customer growth, we grew 8 million customers and this happened across all our global businesses in a very balanced way. We have continued to invest for the future and we're making excellent progress towards a more simple and more integrated model through one transformation.

在強勁的收入成長和客戶成長的推動下，利潤達到創紀錄的 126 億歐元，我們的客戶數量增加了 800 萬，而且這在我們全球所有業務中都以非常均衡的方式實現。我們一直在為未來進行投資，透過一次轉型，我們正朝著更簡單、更整合的模式邁進。

This has been instrumental in improvements in efficiency by more than 2-percentage-points and increasing our profitability RoTE to 16.3%. Our balance sheet remains solid with a strong capital ratio ends the year at an all-time high of 12.8%, reflecting our ability to generate capital organically. Finally, we delivered again strong shareholder value creation with TNAV and dividend per share growing by 14%.

這有助於提高效率超過 2 個百分點，並將我們的獲利能力 RoTE 提高到 16.3%。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，資本充足率強勁，年底達到 12.8% 的歷史新高，反映了我們有機創造資本的能力。最後，我們再次實現了強勁的股東價值創造，淨值和每股股息成長了 14%。

And by the way, this is in spite of pressure from currency devaluation in some markets which was offset by our profitability and the appreciation of the US dollar with our US business acting as a natural hedge against the pressure on the Brazilian real for example.

順便說一句，儘管一些市場面臨貨幣貶值的壓力，但我們的獲利能力和美元升值抵消了這種壓力，而我們的美國業務則充當了對沖巴西雷亞爾壓力的天然對沖。

So let me just go into a bit more detail on our full year performance. Again, very high quality of results with strong growth in our top line revenue of 10% in constant euros and as I said, supported by both customer activity and good delivery across all our businesses.

因此，讓我更詳細地介紹一下我們的全年業績。再次，我們的業績非常高品質，以歐元不變價格計算，我們的營業收入強勁增長 10％，而且正如我所說，這得益於客戶活動和我們所有業務的良好交付。

Fee income is up 11% again in constant, supported by significant growth in customers up 8 million, and very much the network benefits we're capturing throughout the group which already represent about EUR20 billion, about a third of our revenues are due to being part of the Santander group. Expenses grew well below revenue showcasing again the positive effects of our one transformation. And we delivered record net operating income of EUR36 billion.

費用收入再次增加了 11％，這得益於客戶數量大幅增加 800 萬，而且我們整個集團的網路效益已經達到約 200 億歐元，我們約三分之一的收入來自於成為桑坦德銀行集團的一部分。支出成長遠低於收入成長，再次展現了我們一次轉型所帶來的正面效果。我們實現了創紀錄的360億歐元的營業淨收入。

Finally, we continue to be prudent in our approach to risk and our cost of risk ended at 1.15% better than our initial guidance for the year. Again, we have shown over time that our results are sustainable and less volatile over the cycle than most of our peers and this is again because we're retail consumer powerhouse with a business model that combines both geographical diversification with business diversification and a strong risk management.

最後，我們繼續謹慎對待風險，我們的風險成本最終比今年的初始預期高出 1.15%。再次，我們已經證明，隨著時間的推移，我們的業績是可持續的，並且在整個週期內比大多數同行波動性更小，這再次是因為我們是一家零售消費巨頭，擁有將地域多元化與業務多元化以及強大的風險管理相結合的商業模式。

You can see here that all of our five global businesses delivered. Revenue growth while we improve profitability. The performance of retail consumer reflects the scale and the benefits of our transformation. One transformation improving efficiency but also growing customers. Wealth CIB and PagoNxt have each delivered improved profitability, again leveraging our network strengths and capabilities.

您可以在這裡看到，我們的五大全球業務都已實現交付。我們提高獲利能力的同時，收入也在成長。零售消費的表現反映了我們轉型的規模和效益。一次轉型不僅提高了效率，也增加了客戶。Wealth CIB 和 PagoNxt 都提高了獲利能力，再次充分利用了我們的網路優勢和能力。

The combination of these global businesses with the geographical diversification, places us in a very strong spot for the next year and for the future. We're enhancing our disclosure to allow the market all of you to better forecast our global businesses, in the same way that we have been doing for years internally.

這些全球性業務與地理多樣化的結合，將使我們在明年乃至未來處於非常有利的地位。我們正在加強資訊揭露，以便市場能夠更好地預測我們的全球業務，就像我們多年來內部一直在做的那樣。

I would also highlight that while higher interest rates benefit our retail franchise in Europe, other parts of our business such as consumer and certain developing markets geographies will do better with lower rates. And it is this diversification that allows us to deliver our current strong results, consistent profitable growth and value creation. Again, our performance this year, the execution of our strategy puts us on track for our '25 financial targets.

我還要強調的是，雖然較高的利率有利於我們在歐洲的零售特許經營，但我們業務的其他部分，如消費者和某些發展中市場地區，在較低的利率下會表現得更好。正是這種多樣化使我們能夠實現當前強勁的業績、持續的獲利成長和價值創造。再次，我們今年的表現、我們策略的執行使我們有望實現『25』財務目標。

On retail, which is the heart of our banking business, we are making very good progress. Our aim is to become the number one bank for our customers. One transformation is delivering excellent results, and by the way, there's a lot more to come, growing 4 million, around 4 million active customers with, about EUR280 million total with lower cost per transaction. We're improving our digital onboarding, digital sales grow by 16%. The number of products has been reduced by almost 40% with special focus on the front book and this is you're going to see benefits of this in the next few years of course. And you'll see this not just on the cost side but also on revenues for '25, '26.

在零售業務（我們銀行業務的核心）方面，我們取得了非常好的進展。我們的目標是成為客戶心目中的首選銀行。一項轉型正在帶來出色的成果，順便說一句，未來還會有更多轉型，成長 400 萬，活躍客戶約 400 萬，總額約 2.8 億歐元，每筆交易的成本更低。我們正在改進我們的數位入職流程，數位銷售額成長了 16%。產品數量減少了近 40%，特別關注封面，當然，您將在未來幾年看到它的好處。你不僅會在成本方面看到這一點，還會在25年和26年的收入方面看到這一點。

Second, we are consistently but relentlessly deploying our global platform in the UK, for example, customers have been migrated to the new global app that's already up and running in Spain, Portugal, and Poland, and again the global platform roll out and improvements in customer experience will drive additional customer growth with lower absolute cost.

其次，我們正在英國持續不懈地部署我們的全球平台，例如，客戶已經遷移到已經在西班牙、葡萄牙和波蘭啟動並運行的新的全球應用程序，而且全球平台的推出和客戶體驗的改善將以更低的絕對成本推動更多的客戶成長。

In consumer, our priority continues to be delivering the best solutions but also for our customers but also improve our competitive advantage on cost across our footprint. You can see here the operational leverage for the year where we're growing revenues at 6% and decreasing cost by 1%.

在消費者領域，我們的首要任務仍然是為我們的客戶提供最好的解決方案，同時也提高我們在整個業務範圍內的成本競爭優勢。您可以在這裡看到今年的營運槓桿，我們的收入成長了 6%，成本降低了 1%。

It's been a groundbreaking year in our transformation and a great example of this is our checkout lending platform Zinia, which again thanks to our scale and teams we have been able to partner with both Apple and Amazon in Germany. This is absolutely key not just today but for the future to be where our customers are going to be operating with us under our own brand. We have also successfully launched Openbank in the US and Mexico.

這是我們轉型過程中具有開創性的一年，我們的結帳借貸平台 Zinia 就是一個很好的例子，再次感謝我們的規模和團隊，我們得以與德國的 Apple 和 Amazon 合作。這絕對是關鍵，不僅在今天，而且在未來，我們的客戶都將在我們的品牌下與我們合作。我們也在美國和墨西哥成功推出了 Openbank。

Openbank US has gathered EUR2 billion of deposits, that's about double what we expected and it's also improving our loan to deposit in the US by about 12-percentage-points. It's going to allow us to optimize our US funding structure from the beginning.

Openbank US 已聚集了 20 億歐元的存款，大約是我們預期的兩倍，同時也將我們在美國的貸款與存款比率提高了約 12 個百分點。這將使我們能夠從一開始就優化我們的美國資金結構。

We're reducing the cost to serve in consumer, it's down significantly as you can see. And for '25 and this is key, we are actually expecting consumer to be one of our best performing divisions in terms of the upside with the US, being one of the countries that most improves the total country P&L.

我們正在降低消費者服務成本，正如您所看到的，成本已經大幅下降。對於 25 年來說，這是關鍵，我們實際上預期消費者部門將是我們表現最好的部門之一，因為美國是整個國家損益表改善最大的國家之一。

Our other three global businesses, wealth, CIB and payments are the ones driving fee growth, we anticipated this to you all in '23, due to very strong network effects and also leveraging technology. Our corporate bank, we are focused on the markets, where we are present with a strong footprint and as you know we're delivering good growth and profits, we are maintaining our usual risk profile.

我們的其他三項全球業務，財富、CIB 和支付，是推動費用成長的動力，由於非常強大的網路效應和技術利用，我們預計 23 年將實現這一成長。作為我們的企業銀行，我們專注於市場，我們在這些市場中擁有強大的影響力，正如你們所知，我們正在實現良好的成長和利潤，同時我們保持著一貫的風險狀況。

In the US in 2024, corporate bank fees have increased by 21% and revenues up by 14%. We're building the best wealth and insurance manager in a footprint again leveraging on our network. Wealth revenues up 15% in '24 with fees up again double digits across the three business line. And payments, we are building the backbone to connect the group across different businesses and geographies. It's essential in a one transformation. This is a very big market and a growing opportunity in '24 payments volume is up 11%, and the key metric that we committed to EBITDA margin is close to a 30% target for this year for 25%. We're very close to that already.

到 2024 年，美國的企業銀行費用將增加 21%，收入將增加 14%。我們正在利用我們的網絡，打造最好的財富和保險管理者。24年財富收入成長15%，三條業務線的費用再次達到兩位數成長。在支付方面，我們正在建立連接不同業務和地理的集團主幹網路。這對於一次轉型至關重要。這是一個非常大的市場，並且存在成長機會，24 年的支付量成長了 11%，我們承諾的 EBITDA 利潤率的關鍵指標接近今年 30% 的目標，即 25%。我們已經非常接近這個目標了。

Going forward and especially in an environment of lower rates in Europe, CIB wealth and payments are going to be critical in ensuring our targets for this year, including the fee income growth.

展望未來，尤其是在歐洲利率較低的環境下，CIB財富與支付對於確保我們今年的目標（包括費用收入成長）至關重要。

So all of this performance, the strong operational and financial performance, is driving higher capital generation, double digit value creation and shareholder return. A fully loaded CET1 rose to 12.8% at the end of December, January 1, still 12.8%, supported by record organic capital generation after investing in profitable growth, increasing remuneration to shareholders, and absorbing regulatory impacts.

因此，所有這些表現，強勁的營運和財務表現，正在推動更高的資本創造、兩位數的價值創造和股東回報。截至 12 月底（1 月 1 日），滿載的 CET1 升至 12.8%，仍為 12.8%，這得益於在投資盈利性增長、增加股東報酬和吸收監管影響後創紀錄的有機資本創造。

At current prices, share buybacks remain the best way to generate shareholder value since '21, and including this new share buyback we've announced today for the year on '24 earnings. We will have repurchased 15% of outstanding shares with a return on investment approximately 18% for our shareholders, and there is more to come.

以當前價格計算，股票回購仍然是自 21 年以來創造股東價值的最佳方式，包括我們今天宣布的 24 年收益的新股票回購。我們將回購15％的流通股，為股東帶來約18％的投資回報率，未來還會有更多回購。

Hector will go into our financial performance in more detail, but let me just briefly, given that I only get a chance to be with you all once a year at least formally. Remind all of you of our model and our strategy. As I say, this is a marathon. It's not a sprint and in every single sprint we're delivering what we committed and this is because we're delivering numbers and results as we guide you every year but we're also building the Santander's of tomorrow.

赫克托 (Hector) 將更詳細地介紹我們的財務業績，但請允許我簡單介紹一下，因為我每年至少只有一次機會正式與你們見面。提醒大家我們的模式和策略。正如我所說，這是一場馬拉松。這不是短跑，在每一次短跑中我們都在兌現我們的承諾，這是因為我們每年都在提供數字和結果，但我們也在建立未來的桑坦德銀行。

Our aim is to be the best open financial services platform for all our customers, we are working to become more competitive in a way that few others can replicate and this is based on a unique combination of a customer base of 173 million customers. A global scale with local leadership and very important all of this leading to high visibility of our results and predictability through the cycle.

我們的目標是成為所有客戶最好的開放式金融服務平台，我們正在努力以其他人無法複製的方式提高競爭力，而這是基於 1.73 億客戶群的獨特組合。全球規模加上本地領導力，這一切都非常重要，這將使我們的成果在整個週期中具有較高的可見性和可預測性。

And the biggest area of upside even today for Santander comes from the network effects of belonging to the group across our footprint and through the global business. Our confidence in our guidance stems because a lot of what's coming is under our control. And all of this, let me stress in what we do anticipate a much more challenging and volatile macro.

時至今日，桑坦德銀行最大的利潤空間仍來自於其隸屬於該集團的業務足跡和全球業務所產生的網路效應。我們對我們的指導充滿信心，因為很多即將發生的事情都在我們的掌控之中。綜上所述，我要強調的是，我們確實預期宏觀經濟將面臨更大挑戰和波動。

Just a few examples of how this is not a PowerPoint this is already delivering numbers and results for our shareholders and for our customers. These are some of the global platforms that are up and running and contributing to the performance and financial performance which you're seeing and which is increasingly and this will continue to increase making us different from our peers.

舉幾個例子來說明這不是 PowerPoint，它已經為我們的股東和客戶提供了數字和結果。這些是一些已經啟動並運行的全球平台，它們對您所看到的業績和財務表現做出了貢獻，而且這些貢獻還在不斷增加，並將繼續增加，使我們有別於同行。

These platforms will deliver and partly delivering already best services and better efficiency. Openbank is a digital bankrolled out now in the US and Mexico. Zinia I mentioned already in '24 there were 1.7 million new contracts and we are signing in new countries with these partners and gravity, our core system where our partner is Google is being offered to third parties through our joint venture, but it has already enabled Santander to reduce our cost per transaction by 10% but it's obviously helping us to do much more than that in terms of the front end systems again, we are confident we will compound growth throughout the cycle creating value for our shareholders.

這些平台將提供並部分提供已經最好的服務和更高的效率。Openbank 是一家目前在美國和墨西哥推出的數位銀行。Zinia，我之前提到，24 年我們簽訂了 170 萬份新合同，我們正在與這些合作夥伴和 Gravity 簽訂新的合同，我們的核心系統（合作夥伴是谷歌）通過我們的合資企業提供給第三方，但它已經使桑坦德銀行將每筆交易的成本降低了 10%，但顯然，就在前端來說，它幫助我們做成

Just a brief reminder of how this business model has already delivered the numbers you can see it here, sustainable earnings growth year after year, improvements in profitability. Over the last decade we have doubled our profit, actually we have tripled if you go back to the end of 2013 and a new record again in '24.

只是簡單回顧一下這種商業模式已經如何實現了您在這裡看到的數字，即年復一年的可持續盈利增長和盈利能力的提高。在過去的十年裡，我們的利潤翻了一番，實際上，如果追溯到 2013 年底，我們的利潤已經增長了兩倍，並且在 24 年再次創下了新紀錄。

We have attracted 56 million new customers to Santander, our RoTE, our profitability increased to 16.3% from '11 and 2014, and of course we have steadily built capital throughout this period. I just want to remind us actually when I took over we started with a CET ratio of 8.3% and of course, the way we calculate capital is not the same. But very importantly for you, our shareholders -- of our shareholders, we have increased 6 times shareholder remuneration.

我們為桑坦德銀行吸引了 5,600 萬新客戶，我們的股本回報率和盈利能力從 2011 年到 2014 年增長了 16.3%，當然，我們在此期間也穩步積累了資本。我只是想提醒我們，實際上，當我接手時，我們的 CET 比率就開始達到 8.3%，當然，我們計算資本的方式是不一樣的。但對你們，我們的股東來說，非常重要的是，我們的股東報酬增加了 6 倍。

We are now closing at 12.8%, which is near the top of our target operating range and let me just stress operating range we're not changing our target of over 12%, and this is, as I just mentioned, despite RW inflation.

我們現在收於 12.8%，接近我們目標操作區間的頂部，讓我強調操作區間，我們不會改變超過 12% 的目標，正如我剛才提到的，儘管存在 RW 通膨。

So last but not least before I turn over to Hector, this is our North Star and this is our North Star since '23, we could not target and commit to TNAV and per share before '23 for reasons that you all know well. The progress towards the targets that we set is well ahead of plan. We continue to be focused on profitability and being very disciplined on capital allocation. Today we have 87% of RWA's above cost of equity for improving our profitability to above 16%.

所以，在我將發言權交給赫克託之前，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這是我們的北極星，這是我們自 23 年以來的北極星，由於大家都知道的原因，我們無法在 23 年之前瞄準並承諾 TNAV 和每股收益。我們所製定的目標的進展遠遠超出了計劃。我們繼續關注獲利能力並嚴格控制資本配置。如今，我們的 RWA 已超過股本成本 87%，從而將我們的獲利能力提高到 16% 以上。

So, let me now pass to Hector who will take you over our financial performance in more detail. Hector, please.

現在請我把話題轉到赫克托 (Hector) 身上，他將更詳細地向您介紹我們的財務表現。請叫我赫克托。

Yes. Thank you, Ana. I will look at our performance in constant currency, including the impact of Argentina where a conservative approach to FX was adjusted in Q4. This resulted in a positive impact on NII with a negative offset in other income and cost.

是的。謝謝你，安娜。我將關注我們在固定匯率下的表現，包括阿根廷在第四季度調整了保守的外匯政策的影響。這對 NII 產生了積極影響，同時對其他收入和成本產生了負面影響。

Let me start by highlighting our strong top line performance. We achieved double digit revenue growth exceeding the targets we provided at the start of the year, and even the ones you upgraded during the year. This was underpinned by some growth in customer activity across the businesses while reflecting the benefits of our model.

首先我想強調一下我們強勁的營收表現。我們實現了兩位數的營收成長，超越了我們年初設定的目標，甚至超越了年內提升的目標。這是由各項業務的客戶活動有所成長所支撐的，同時也反映了我們模式的優勢。

The strong increase was mainly supported by the next things. First, a retail business which continues to grow at double digits with good performance and both NII and fees. A record year in CIB up 14% on the back of our investments and good activity levels and 15% revenue growth in wealth driven by solid commercial activity in private banking and a really good performance of Santander's management and insurance.

強勁的成長主要得益於以下幾點。首先，零售業務持續保持兩位數成長，業績表現良好，NII和費用均保持良好。由於我們的投資和良好的活動水平，CIB 的年度增長了 14%，創下了歷史新高，而得益於私人銀行業務的穩健商業活動以及桑坦德銀行管理和保險的出色表現，財富收入增長了 15%。

Consumer and payments are also showing very good revenue trends with consumer delivering double digit growth in fees and both PagoNxt and cards growing. More than 80% of the group's NII comes from our retail and consumer businesses. The group NIIs grew double digit in '24 with NIM up driven by asset repricing and controlled cost of deposits. Over the last few quarters, we have proactively managed our interest rate sensitivity to position our balance sheet for the new outlook on interest rates.

消費者和支付也顯示出非常好的收入趨勢，其中消費者費用實現了兩位數成長，PagoNxt 和卡片均在成長。集團80%以上的NII來自於我們的零售和消費業務。在資產重新定價和存款成本控制的推動下，集團 NIIs 在 24 年實現了兩位數成長，其中 NIM 上漲。在過去幾個季度中，我們積極管理我們的利率敏感性，以使我們的資產負債表適應新的利率前景。

In Spain, for example, our NII was flat quarter over quarter partly due to our hedges, and in Brazil our negative sensitivity to 100 basis points rising rates is now lower at around EUR120 million.

例如在西班牙，我們的NII環比持平，部分原因是我們的對沖；在巴西，我們對利率上升100個基點的負面敏感度目前較低，約為1.2億歐元。

Going forward, our outlook for '25 for the group is similar to what we said in Q3, excluding Argentina, we expect NII to be a slightly up in constant euros and slightly down in current euros based on forward rates. In an environment of low credit demand in general, we generated another record performance in fee income through network effects from all our global businesses.

展望未來，我們對該集團 25 年的展望與第三季的預測類似，除阿根廷外，我們預計 NII 將以恆定歐元計算略有上升，以遠期利率計算則以當前歐元計算略有下降。在整體信貸需求低迷的環境下，我們透過全球所有業務的網路效應，再次創造了費用收入的新紀錄。

Retail increase driven by the strong performance across our footprint on the back of good commercial dynamics and customer growth. In '24, we put a greater focus on deploying targeted high value added products and services, and this is expected to be a positive driver in '25. In consumer we deliver double digit growth fees across our core markets driven by insurance and DCB in Europe, Brazil and now to in the US, and in '25 we expect consumer fees to be slightly down due to the impact of the new regulation on insurance.

在良好的商業動態和客戶成長的推動下，我們的業務表現強勁，推動了零售額的成長。在'24年，我們更加重視部署有針對性的高附加價值產品和服務，預計這將成為'25年的積極推動力。在消費者方面，我們在歐洲、巴西以及現在的美國等核心市場的保險和 DCB 的推動下實現了兩位數的增長費用，並且由於新保險法規的影響，我們預計在 25 年消費者費用將略有下降。

CIB also grew strongly to record levels supported by all CIB products with the US a top contributor for fees nearly doubled. In wealth, we delivered a very strong performance with double digit fee growth backed by record assets under management. Excluding a one-time positive fear recorded in cars in '23, payment fees were up slightly and are expected to grow strongly during '25.

所有 CIB 產品支持的 CIB 也強勁增長至創紀錄水平，其中美國是費用幾乎翻倍的最大貢獻者。在財富管理方面，我們表現非常強勁，費用實現了兩位數成長，資產管理規模創下了歷史新高。除 23 年汽車行業出現的一次性積極恐慌外，支付費用略有上漲，預計 25 年將強勁增長。

One transformation, is key to why we can continue to get better in every single market. Thanks to leveraging our global businesses. We expect sustainable improvements in operating leverage as this is a structural change in our model that we deliver benefits for years to come.

一次轉型，是我們能夠在每個市場中不斷進步的關鍵。感謝我們利用我們的全球業務。我們預期經營槓桿將持續改善，因為這是我們模式的結構性變化，將在未來幾年帶來效益。

Retail and consumer are leading our transformation which is delivering structural efficiency gains and operating leverage with cost growth of 1%, well below revenue growth of 9%. These two businesses represent 70% of our cost base and we continue to see lower cost going forward.

零售和消費品正在引領我們的轉型，實現結構性效率提升和經營槓桿，成本成長 1%，遠低於 9% 的營收成長。這兩項業務占我們成本基礎的 70%，我們預計未來成本將繼續下降。

CIB and wealth cost increased by 13% year-on-year, showing positive jobs while driving higher fee income and payments operating performance reflects our strategic investments. As a result, our cost to income ratio improved from 41.8% for '24, the best we have ever reported in 15 years and better than our original guidance.

CIB和財富成本年增13％，顯示出積極的就業，同時推動了更高的費用收入和支付營運績效反映了我們的策略投資。結果，我們的成本收入比從 24 年的 41.8% 改善，這是我們 15 年來的最佳報告，並且比我們最初的預期好。

There is still more upside over the medium term for our strategy. Both revenue and cost, while we are ahead of our plan on execution of one transformation and global tech capabilities, we have more to do capturing network effects across our global businesses. This has delivered 66 basis points of improvements for a cost to income ratio with more upside to our original target of 100 basis points to 150 basis points.

從中期來看，我們的策略仍有更大的上行空間。無論是收入還是成本，雖然我們在執行一項轉型和全球技術能力的計劃方面都領先於計劃，但我們還需要做更多的工作來在全球業務中實現網路效應。這使得成本收入比提高了 66 個基點，並且還有可能高於我們最初的目標 100 個基點至 150 個基點。

Retail and consumer and more than 70% of our earnings and have significant upside. The rest of our earnings come from wealth, CIB and payments which are fee driven and will play to our network strengths.

零售和消費占我們收益的70%以上，並且具有顯著的上升空間。我們其餘的收入來自於財富、CIB 和支付，這些都是由費用驅動的，並將發揮我們的網路優勢。

Our balance sheet, as you can see is rock solid. Credit quality is stable across our footprint ahead of our expectations, with low on unemployment and easing monetary policies in most of the countries except for Brazil. Credit quality improved year on year as reflected in both NPL ratio and lower coverage needs. NPL ratio was 3.05%, improving both year-on-year and Q-on-Q. The NPL portfolio has collateral warranties and provisions that account for around 90% of its total exposure. The cost of risk improved to 1.15%, better than our target of around 1.2% for the year.

如您所見，我們的資產負債表非常穩健。我們所涵蓋範圍內的信貸品質穩定，超出我們的預期，除巴西外，大多數國家的失業率較低，貨幣政策寬鬆。不良貸款率及償債能力需求下降均反映出信用品質逐年改善。不良貸款率為3.05%，較去年同期、較上季均有所改善。不良貸款組合的抵押擔保和撥備約佔其總風險敞口的 90%。風險成本改善至 1.15%，優於我們今年約 1.2% 的目標。

In our retail business, 12 month cost of risk improved year on year to 0.92% with sound underlying trends across all the countries. In Brazil, we have grown credit at a slower pace than our peers and have made improvements to our portfolio underwriting over the past few years. Meanwhile, in consumer 12 month cost of risk finished at 2.16% in line with the normalization expected in '24 supported by the good portfolio behavior in the US auto as we had expected since the beginning.

在我們的零售業務中，12 個月的風險成本年增至 0.92%，所有國家都呈現出良好的基本趨勢。在巴西，我們的信貸成長速度低於同行，並且在過去幾年中對我們的投資組合承保進行了改進。同時，消費者 12 個月風險成本收在 2.16%，與 24 年預期的正常化一致，這得益於我們從一開始就預期的美國汽車投資組合良好表現。

Moving on to capital where we delivered an exceptional outcome in Q4. Our CT1 ratio grew by 30 basis points in the quarter backed by strong organic capital generation. We have been working on accelerating our capital generation for some time. This quarter we generated 82 basis points organically in the back of the profit generation and RWA modification.

談到資本，我們在第四季取得了卓越的成果。在強勁的有機資本產生的推動下，我們的 CT1 比率在本季度增長了 30 個基點。我們一直在致力於加速我們的資本創造。本季度，我們在利潤創造和 RWA 調整的幫助下有機創造了 82 個基點。

We continue to deploy capital to the most profitable growth opportunities and expand our asset mobilization capabilities to maximize capital productivity. Our discipline capital allocation is resulting in a new book return on risk-weighted assets of 2.9% equivalent to an RoTE of 23%. We have reached 87% of RWAs with returns above the cost of equity, up from 40% in 2015 and well above our target of 85% in '25.

我們繼續將資本部署到最有利可圖的成長機會中，並擴大我們的資產調動能力，以最大限度地提高資本生產力。我們的紀律資本配置導致風險加權資產的新帳面回報率為 2.9%，相當於 23% 的 RoTE。我們已實現 87% 的風險加權資產回報率高於股本成本，高於 2015 年的 40%，也遠高於我們 2025 年 85% 的目標。

Our asset desk is achieving exceptional results during the year. We disposed of an amount of capital risk equivalent to EUR60 billion in RWAs. The combination of these actions explained expanding profitability and the good performance on capital.

我們的資產部門在這一年中取得了卓越的表現。我們處置了相當於 600 億歐元風險加權資產的資本風險。這些措施的結合解釋了獲利能力的不斷提高和資本的良好表現。

All in all, we're in a new phase of value creation driven by higher profitability. Looking back at the period since 2016, our value creation has clearly accelerated and since '22, we have been able to generate on average 15% value to our shareholders. This is driven mainly by the step up in our profitability and helped by our diversification.

總而言之，我們正處於由更高獲利能力推動的價值創造新階段。回顧 2016 年以來，我們的價值創造明顯加速，自 2022 年以來，我們平均為股東創造 15% 的價值。這主要得益於我們獲利能力的提升以及多元化經營的推動。

Our exposure to the US dollar through our US businesses has acted as a natural hedge against depreciation of the LatAm currencies. Let me highlight the sensitivity of our equity to foreign currency, which clearly shows that currency depreciation in Brazil and Mexico is at least partly offset by our exposure to the stronger US dollar working as a natural hedge.

我們透過美國業務對美元的投資，對拉丁美洲貨幣貶值起到了天然的對沖作用。讓我強調我們的股權對外幣的敏感性，這清楚地表明，巴西和墨西哥的貨幣貶值至少部分被我們對強勢美元的曝險作為自然對沖所抵消。

That's all from my side. Ana, over to you.

我的發言就這些。安娜，交給你了。

Thank you very much, Hector. So let me just briefly sum up. Our performance in 2024 once again confirms our consistent delivery on our plans. We deliver what we say we will deliver in every single plan and every single year on the key financial metrics for the group. We're on track to either achieve or exceed our financial targets set in 2023.

非常感謝，赫克托。所以讓我簡單總結一下。我們在 2024 年的表現再次證明了我們始終如一地履行計劃。我們會在每項計畫中、每年的集團關鍵財務指標上履行我們的承諾。我們預計將實現或超越 2023 年設定的財務目標。

2024 was another record year for Santander. Our results show the benefits from our strategy, the resilience of our business model, which again then allows us to deliver through the cycle despite volatility.

2024 年對桑坦德銀行來說又是創紀錄的一年。我們的業績體現了我們的策略優勢和商業模式的彈性，這讓我們能夠在波動中順利度過週期。

So looking ahead, we are confident that our strategy works, it's evident in the numbers and that it will continue to drive sustainably higher returns. This is reflected in the targets you can see on the slide for '25 which are based on a more volatile context. We do expect volatility, uncertainty and a challenging environment for the next year.

因此展望未來，我們相信我們的策略是有效的，這在數字上是顯而易見的，而且它將繼續帶來可持續的高回報。這反映在投影片上看到的基於更不穩定的環境的 25 年目標。我們確實預計明年的環境將會波動、不確定性和充滿挑戰。

Our macro outlook includes a monetary reform, a lower EUR rates, also a stronger dollar. We expect to deliver resilient revenue despite these lower rates and effects around the same as this year EUR62 billion in euros. It means we will be growing in constant currency and supported by mid to high single digit growth in fees in constant euros.

我們的宏觀前景包括貨幣改革、歐元利率降低、美元走強。儘管利率較低且有影響，我們預計收入仍將保持穩定，與今年持平，約 620 億歐元。這意味著我們將以固定匯率實現成長，並得到以固定歐元計算的費用中高個位數成長的支持。

Our aim this year is to reduce cost in absolute terms year on year in euros. Again, positive operating leverage in '25 in spite of these lower rates, mostly in Europe. We are expecting a stable cost of risk at the group level with improvements in some markets of setting others and again all of this will lead to increased profitability with returns above 17% on the same basis as we guided in '23, exceeding that top end of our Investor Day.

我們今年的目標是以歐元計算的絕對成本逐年降低。儘管利率較低（主要在歐洲），但25年的營運槓桿仍為正值。我們預計，集團層面的風險成本將保持穩定，部分市場將有所改善，所有這些都將帶來盈利能力的提高，回報率將超過 17%，與我們在 23 年預期的相同，超過我們投資者日的最高水平。

And I just want to flag that from now on we will report RoTE post [AT1], which is what most of our peers do with this more conservative lens, we're targeting 16%, about 16.5% as you can see, and this again is post AT1s.

我只想指出，從現在開始，我們將報告 [AT1] 後的 RoTE，這也是我們的大多數同行使用這種更保守的視角所做的事情，我們的目標是 16%，大約是 16.5%，如您所見，這又是 AT1 之後的情況。

Very importantly, given the strong outlook for capital progress and profitability, we're targeting to distribute EUR10 billion in share buybacks to our shareholders for '25 and '26. Out of '25 and '26 earnings, this will consist of distributing in line with our existing policy around 50% of our reported profit which will be distributed approximately 50% in cash dividends and 50% in share buybacks.

非常重要的是，鑑於資本進步和獲利能力的強勁前景，我們計劃在 25 年和 26 年向股東分配 100 億歐元的股票回購。在 25 年和 26 年的收益中，這將包括根據我們現有的政策分配報告利潤的 50% 左右，其中約 50% 以現金股利形式分配，50% 以股票回購形式分配。

As you know we announced, the second buyback on '24 earnings today at EUR1.6 billion. And second, excess capital in the two years, so '25 and '26, excess capital following our annual results and of course our capital hierarchy, which we can go into later and again as always subject to regulatory approvals and the performance we're outlining to you today.

如你們所知，我們今天宣布了第二次對'24收益的回購，金額為 16 億歐元。第二，兩年內的超額資本，也就是 25 和 26 年，是根據我們的年度業績和資本層級計算的超額資本，我們可以稍後再討論，但要一如既往地獲得監管部門的批准和我們今天向您概述的業績。

Very importantly, we will no longer set a maximum price level for our share buybacks. We will no longer set a maximum price level for our share buybacks reflecting our improved profitability and improvement ahead. I would like to end by saying again our note start will continue to be delivering double digit growth in TNAV, and dividend per share through the cycle.

非常重要的是，我們將不再為股票回購設定最高價格水準。我們將不再為股票回購設定最高價格水平，以反映我們獲利能力的提高和未來的改善。最後，我想再次強調，我們的業績將在整個週期中繼續實現 TNAV 和每股股息的兩位數成長。

So with that we're here to answer your questions which I think Raul, you will be managing.

因此，我們在這裡回答您的問題，我認為您將由勞爾 (Raul) 來處理。

Thank you, Ana. Can we have the first question, please?

謝謝你，安娜。我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

Thanks very much for the presentation and thanks for taking my question. First of all, I just wanted to thank you very much for the improvement in the financial disclosure and the fact that you are using this RoTE AT1s.

非常感謝您的演講，也感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我非常感謝你們在財務揭露方面的改進以及你們使用這款 RoTE AT1。

But just going to the questions, I have two questions today. After the announcement on the extraordinary distributions, just wanted to get further color on the trade-off that you see between organic and inorganic growth. How excess capital ranks in terms of management priorities in 2025 and '26, especially in the context of the M&A that we are seeing in the European banking sector.

但說到問題，我今天有兩個問題。在宣布特別分配之後，我只是想進一步了解有機增長和無機增長之間的權衡。2025 年和 2026 年，過剩資本在管理優先事項中的排名如何，尤其是在我們在歐洲銀行業看到的併購背景下。

The second thing is, when I just looked at the results of one transformation, the results are very good. I just wanted to see how much more the group's cost to income can improve from here. Thank you very much.

第二件事是，當我只看一次轉換的結果時，結果非常好。我只是想看看該集團的成本收入比還能提高多少。非常感謝。

Thank you Ignacio. So yes, it's important to remind, and this is not different, but how we're thinking about the capital allocation going forward, in the anticipated higher profitability and access capital. So first of all, our capital allocation framework has, as I said already been a fundamental pillar of our strategy and the results we're delivering, and we have been very disciplined and strict.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。所以是的，需要提醒的是，這沒有什麼不同，而是我們如何考慮未來的資本配置，以及預期更高的獲利能力和獲取資本。首先，正如我所說，我們的資本配置框架已經成為我們策略和成果的基本支柱，而且我們一直都非常自律和嚴格。

So first we prioritize profitable organic growth, investments across our businesses, we see ourselves as a compounder so again this organic growth creates a compounding effect on earnings, returns, book value and distributions.

因此，首先，我們優先考慮獲利性的有機成長、對我們業務的投資，我們將自己視為複合成長者，因此這種有機成長會對收益、回報、帳面價值和分配產生複合效應。

Second, this is followed of course by ordinary dividends and share buybacks to our shareholders. In terms of an organic capital deployment, we're very clear that it has to be complementary to our strategic aims and generate attractive financial returns that have to be ahead that surpass those of any organic investments or share buybacks.

其次，當然也要向股東發放普通股利和回購股票。在有機資本部署方面，我們非常清楚，它必須與我們的策略目標相補充，並產生有吸引力的財務回報，這種回報必須超越任何有機投資或股票回購的回報。

And last but not least, and this is what we announced today, any incremental capital that exceeds our targets, our target range actually, and again I want to be clear that we are not changing the target for capital above 12%, we are saying as you've seen in the guidance that we will be at 13% in '25. So any incremental capital following this hierarchy that I just described would be returned as additional remuneration to shareholders.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這是我們今天宣布的，任何超出我們目標的增量資本，實際上是我們的目標範圍，我再次要明確表示，我們不會改變超過 12% 的資本目標，正如你在指引中看到的那樣，我們所說的是，到 25 年我們將達到 13%。因此，任何符合我剛剛描述的層級的增量資本都將作為額外報酬返還給股東。

In terms of cost, and I think I said that and the CEO said that also this is incredibly important, because our transformation, one transformation still has a lot of upside. Especially in the retail and consumer areas that are 70% of our PAT and 70% of our cost.

在成本方面，我想我說過這一點，執行長也說過這一點，這非常重要，因為我們的轉型，一次轉型仍然有很多好處。特別是在零售和消費領域，這占我們獲利和成本的70%。

One transformation is already delivering, you can see that in Hector's slide where you can see that our cost basically flat across retail consumer with the top line growing. But very importantly we've grown 8 million customers. This is something you will see in the next few years that we have a strategy and a model with one transformation that scales. We don't have to increase cost to grow customers and grow revenues.

一項轉型已經取得了成效，你可以在 Hector 的幻燈片中看到，我們的成本在零售消費者中基本上持平，而營業額卻在成長。但非常重要的是，我們的客戶數量已增加到 800 萬人。您將在接下來的幾年中看到，我們擁有一個可擴展的轉型策略和模型。我們不需要增加成本來增加客戶和增加收入。

I said it also in my presentation that the fact that we have reduced our products on offer in retail by almost 40%, you're going to see the effects of that on the cost base, by the way, also on the revenue side in '25 and '26.

我在演講中也說過，我們已經將零售產品數量減少了近 40%，你會看到這對成本基礎的影響，順便說一句，對 25 年和 26 年的收入方面也有影響。

And critical to all of this is that we are aligning our business and operating model and deploying our own tech platforms. This is going to help much more down the road, okay? Just to give you an example, gravity, our core system which drives a lot of the efficiencies and the front end customer tech platforms, is operating in 30% of the group, okay? We expect to be at 60% by the end of '25. This is hugely important. So again, new paradigm for '25, we're focusing on absolute cost base, going down versus '24 despite effects and inflation this is something we feel very confident about.

所有這一切的關鍵在於，我們正在調整我們的業務和營運模式並部署我們自己的技術平台。這樣對以後有很大幫助，好嗎？舉個例子，重力是我們的核心系統，它推動了許多效率和前端客戶技術平台，在集團的 30% 中運行，好嗎？我們預計到25年底這一比例將達到60%。這非常重要。因此，再次強調，對於 25 年的新範式，我們專注於絕對成本基礎，儘管存在影響和通貨膨脹，但與 24 年相比成本有所下降，這是我們非常有信心的事情。

Given this is important, I don't know if you want to mention, maybe Hector a couple of the precise numbers on the different global divisions.

鑑於這一點很重要，我不知道您是否想提一下，也許赫克托可以提一下全球不同部門的幾個精確數字。

Yes, thank you, Ana. As Ana has said, I mean, what is very important to understand this one transformation is just starting, okay? Let me provide you a little bit more color on the cost evolution in the quarter by businesses and also the '25 outlook. First of all, I mean, as you can see in '24 costs increased by 4% year-on-year, but in real terms cost only grew 1%, okay? That's basically thanks to the operating leverage in retail and the cost containment that we have done in consumer despite the investments and growth that we have been able to do so, it's important to say that we are basically changing the engine while flying the plane at the same time.

是的，謝謝你，安娜。正如安娜所說，我的意思是，非常重要的一點是要明白，這一轉變才剛開始，好嗎？讓我向您提供更多有關本季企業成本變化以及 25 年展望的詳細資訊。首先，我的意思是，正如你所看到的，24 年成本比去年同期成長了 4%，但實際成本僅成長了 1%，好嗎？這主要歸功於我們在零售領域的經營槓桿和在消費領域進行的成本控制，儘管我們能夠做到這一點並實現成長，但重要的是，我們基本上是在駕駛飛機的同時也更換了引擎。

Retail and consumer represents around 70% of the group costs were flattish while the revenue was up 9%. CIB and wealth, that's around 20% of the group cost, and they just increased by 13%, as I said in the presentation with positive jobs and showing sustainable fee income growth around 21%. That's basically what is doing the investments we are doing are actually representing much more growth in the businesses. The remaining 10% is payments which increased by 8% year-on-year, but that reflects our strategic investments.

零售和消費品約佔集團成本的 70%，而收入則成長了 9%。CIB 和財富管理約佔集團成本的 20%，而它們剛剛增長了 13%，正如我在演示中所說的那樣，就業市場表現積極，費用收入可持續增長約 21%。這其實就是我們所進行的投資代表著業務的更大成長。剩下的 10% 是付款，年增 8%，但這反映了我們的策略投資。

Let me go directly, I mean, retail and on '25 we expect cost down versus '24 in current euros, and we expect to reiterate or improve the guidance that we provided for each business at the last Investor Day. So that's retail cost to income below the AT target of less than 42% and flat ex Argentina, so that that was basically around 39.7%. Consumer cost to income is down and it's going to be less than 40% and CIB is going to be below 45%. Thank you.

讓我直接說吧，我的意思是，就零售而言，我們預計 25 年的成本將比 24 年（以當前歐元計算）下降，我們希望重申或改進上一投資者日為每項業務提供的指引。因此，零售成本收入比低於 AT 目標（不到 42%），且阿根廷以外的地區持平，因此基本上在 39.7% 左右。消費者成本收入比下降，將低於 40%，而 CIB 將低於 45%。謝謝。

Thanks, Hector. Next question, please.

謝謝，赫克托。請回答下一個問題。

Marta Sanchez, Citi.

花旗銀行的瑪爾塔‧桑切斯 (Marta Sanchez)。

Good morning. Thank you very much. My first question is about the UK. When you say that the market is core, does it also specifically apply to the retail bank, to the ringfenced entity? And if that's the case, where do you see sustainable returns in an environment where you have to compete against stronger deposit franchises and new entrants with deep pockets?

早安.非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於英國的。當您說市場是核心時，它是否也特別適用於零售銀行和受保護實體？如果事實確實如此，那麼在您必須與更強大的存款特許經營權和資金雄厚的新進入者競爭的環境中，您如何看待可持續的回報？

My second question is on the US. You've delivered $1.2 billion this year of net profit, but you're still benefiting from EV tax credits. I think you've mentioned on the call that you expect the US to be the largest contributor to earnings growth in 2025. Could you be a little bit more specific about how much you expected to contribute? What are the levers, and what is the tax return -- sorry, the tax rate assumed? And then just quickly a clarification on capital, the threshold for surplus capital distribution is now 13%. Thank you.

第二個問題是關於美國的問題。今年，你們實現了 12 億美元的淨利潤，但仍在受益於電動車稅收抵免。我記得您在電話會議上提到過，您預計美國將成為 2025 年獲利成長的最大貢獻者。您能否更具體地說明您預計貢獻多少？槓桿是什麼？然後快速澄清一下資本問題，剩餘資本分配的門檻現在是 13%。謝謝。

So we're not -- let me answer the last first. We're not putting a threshold we've said, we will be at 13% by the end of this year. The buybacks, will happen in '25, '26. I have explained the hierarchy, so it will depend on what organic growth we will have. We're going to be very mindful as we have in terms of the reference, being buybacks for shareholders, organic growth, supporting a franchise. It's hard to be so precise we don't have a crystal ball. What we do have is a track record that shows that in challenging times we do better than our peers. We are confident that we can deliver the group targets that we just said.

所以我們不是—讓我先回答最後一個問題。我們沒有設定門檻，我們說過，到今年年底我們將達到 13%。回購將在25年和26年進行。我已經解釋了層次結構，所以這將取決於我們將實現什麼樣的有機成長。我們會非常留意參考事項，包括為股東回購、有機成長、支持特許經營。由於我們沒有水晶球，所以很難做到如此精確。我們確實有良好的記錄，顯示在困難時期我們比同行做得更好。我們有信心實現剛才所說的集團目標。

So let me just UK, US. So in terms of the of the UK, first is that the outlook for our business in the UK, which is 88% retail, continues to be very resilient and we are committed to the UK just as a number, UK retail within the group is 9% and UK retail we're expecting to do better. So again good outlook for our business in the UK. And by the way UK NII has bottomed out in the second half of '24, and we expect that to be slightly up next year.

所以讓我只說英國、美國。因此就英國而言，首先，我們在英國的業務前景（88％為零售業）繼續保持強勁，我們致力於英國業務，集團內的英國零售業佔 9％，我們預計英國零售業會做得更好。因此，我們在英國的業務前景再次看好。順便說一下，英國國家資訊基礎設施投資在24年下半年已經觸底，我們預計明年將略有上升。

Second is crucial to our results and performance in the UK is of course a mortgage. We're mortgage lender essentially and what we're seeing is that asset quality continues to be resilient. We are being very conservative in terms of how we stress, I think we stress around 8%, maybe Hector or Jose can confirm that by the way that's a number. So we have very strong underwriting criteria and that is essential for our returns.

第二，對於我們在英國的表現和表現至關重要的當然是抵押貸款。我們本質上是抵押貸款人，我們看到資產品質持續保持彈性。我們在壓力方面非常保守，我認為我們的壓力在 8% 左右，也許 Hector 或 Jose 可以證實這一點，順便說一下，這是一個數字。因此，我們有非常嚴格的承保標準，這對我們的回報至關重要。

And third, what we are very confident is that Hector has explained it for one transformation. We can do much more in the UK by leveraging the global platforms, bringing our global scale to benefit the UK. We have already migrated the UK to gravity and some of the improvements, are going to be ahead as we improve customer experience but also reduce the cost to serve. So again, there is more upside to our profitability it remains a co-mark as we have said.

第三，我們非常確信赫克托已經解釋了一次轉變。我們可以利用全球平台在英國做更多的事情，讓我們的全球規模惠及英國。我們已經將英國遷移到重力環境，並且一些改進將會提前進行，因為我們將改善客戶體驗，同時也降低服務成本。因此，我們的獲利能力還有更大的上升空間，正如我們所說的，它仍然是一個共同標​​誌。

On the US. So I want to first say that we are very committed to having a strict capital allocation. This is really important for us and has been important throughout. The UK has been top of all our countries, all our geographies over the last decade and top also the last five years. This is really important because we are committed and have been on this capital allocation and returns in euros to our shareholders. Part of that is the strong dollar and it is a natural hedge against and even more now that the earnings are going up. So that's the first point.

在美國。所以我首先要說的是，我們非常致力於嚴格的資本配置。這對我們來說確實很重要，而且一直都很重要。過去十年，英國一直在我們所有國家、所有地區中名列前茅，過去五年也是如此。這確實很重要，因為我們致力於並一直堅持這種資本分配並以歐元回報股東。部分原因是美元走強，這是一種天然的對沖手段，現在企業收益正在上升，對沖作用就更大了。這是第一點。

The second is that we refocused our strategy in the US a couple of years ago and we were very clear we're not trying to be all things to all people. We, want to deliver profitable growth anchored on four pillars. First, our consumer bank that is 70% of what the US as a geography is, and it continues to improve consumer will be one of our best performing divisions in terms of the delta and that is not just the US but also consumer Europe with lower rates consumer, which is about 20% of our PAT will do better and would improve profitability driven by results in the US. We're not going to give a specific number but it's hundreds of millions more, if you do the math.

第二，幾年前我們重新調整了在美國市場的策略，我們非常清楚，我們不想滿足所有人的需求。我們希望實現基於四大支柱的獲利性成長。首先，我們的消費銀行在美國的覆蓋率達到 70%，而且該業務還在持續改善，從增量來看，該部門將成為我們表現最好的部門之一，這不僅是在美國，而且在歐洲也一樣，消費者利率較低，約占我們稅後利潤的 20%，該部門將表現得更好，並在美國業績的推動下提高盈利能力。我們不會給出一個具體的數字，但如果你算一下，你會發現這個數字是數億。

Very importantly, the launch of Openbank is going to help us optimize funding and even more so in the context of maybe not so much lower dollar rates. In terms of the corporate bank, it's been hugely accretive to our network, if you look at our corporate bank within the group, most of the returns are coming in country, so over half of our corporate bank is actually Brazil and Spain. The US is helping us to leverage that network, we've said we will not materially increase capital allocation and it's being a very significant driver of fee growth in the US corporate investment banking is up 81% year-on-year.

非常重要的是，Openbank 的推出將幫助我們優化融資，在美元利率可能不會那麼低的背景下更是如此。就企業銀行而言，它極大地增值了我們的網絡，如果你看看我們集團內的企業銀行，大部分回報都來自國內，所以我們超過一半的企業銀行實際上是巴西和西班牙。美國正在幫助我們利用該網絡，我們已經說過我們不會大幅增加資本配置，而它正在成為美國企業投資銀行費用增長的一個重要推動力，該費用同比增長了 81％。

And finally we have a very profitable again very much focused on our LatAm franchise wealth business. So we will continue to allocate organic capital to the United States and to the Americas.

最後，我們再次獲得了非常大的利潤，主要專注於拉丁美洲特許經營財富業務。因此，我們將繼續向美國和美洲分配有機資本。

Specific question on taxes?

關於稅收的具體問題？

Taxes, yeah, either Hector or Jose on taxes.

稅收，是的，要么由 Hector 徵稅，要么由 Jose 徵稅。

Let me just compliment a little bit. I mean, to what Ana was saying. I mean, in the UK just to give you an idea in terms of what you were asking revenue is going to be up mid-single digits and we expect a RoTE of around 11%. Okay, I'm talking in constant, we have no view on FXs at this point, okay?

請允許我稍微誇獎一下。我指的是 Ana 所說的話。我的意思是，在英國，僅就您所要求的而言，收入將增長中等個位數，我們預計 RoTE 約為 11％。好的，我一直在說，我們目前對 FX 沒有任何看法，好嗎？

It's very important also to tell you that I mean we have 40 million clients in the UK. We're starting to sell different products to them, as Ana said, we have a basically mortgage franchise over there, but we're starting doing some other businesses with them. We're starting to do credit cards, credit cards are starting to grow. It's the second largest market in the world. So we're starting to cross selling to that client base and, that basically is helping us out to have a much better franchise and we have the capabilities to do it because we have a business at scale that allow us to do so.

還需要告訴您的是，我們在英國有 4000 萬客戶。我們開始向他們銷售不同的產品，正如安娜所說，我們在那裡基本上擁有抵押貸款特許經營權，但我們也開始與他們開展一些其他業務。我們開始辦理信用卡，信用卡業務開始成長。它是世界第二大市場。因此，我們開始向該客戶群進行交叉銷售，這基本上幫助我們獲得更好的特許經營權，而且我們有能力做到這一點，因為我們擁有允許我們這樣做的規模業務。

In terms of the US, I just give you, I mean, in terms of, guidance that you were asking, I mean, we see revenue of high single digit, okay, and accounting RoTE would be around circa 10% if you adjust the RoTE because of the excess capital that we have, we're talking about a 14% so it's quite good. And in the regards of what the tax -- on the tax, I understand -- I mean, I explained you very well the situation, due to the fact that what we're doing in terms of leasing we're really going to find out exactly the numbers until we see how we're going to allocate that one throughout the year. So.

就美國而言，我只是給你，我的意思是，就你所要求的指導而言，我的意思是，我們看到收入為高個位數，好的，如果你調整 RoTE，會計 RoTE 將在 10% 左右，因為我們擁有的過剩資本，我們談論的是 14%，所以它相當不錯。關於稅收，我理解，我的意思是，我已經非常清楚地向您解釋了情況，由於我們在租賃方面所做的工作，我們將真正找出確切的數字，直到我們看到如何在全年分配這些稅收。所以。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. All right, thank you.

好的。好的，謝謝。

Thanks, Marta. Can we have the next question, please?

謝謝，瑪爾塔。我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Francisco Riquel, Alandra.

弗朗西斯科·里克爾，阿蘭德拉。

Yes, thank you for taking my question. So the first one is on capital. I wanted to ask you about the 13% CT1 target for '25, if that 13% already includes any special share buyback beyond the ordinary distributions that we should expect in '25 or if the special share buybacks will be back and loaded to '26. And in this context, I wonder if you can guide us on the organic generation that we should expect in '25, particularly also on the plans for risk transfers this year and also on any negative regulatory impacts Brazil -- for other impacts DTAs in Brazil, et cetera.

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於資本的。我想問您關於 25 年 13% CT1 目標的問題，這 13% 是否已經包括了我們在 25 年預期的普通分配之外的任何特殊股票回購，或者特殊股票回購是否會恢復並加載到 26 年。在此背景下，我想知道您是否可以指導我們了解我們應該在 25 年實現的有機發電，特別是今年的風險轉移計劃，以及對巴西的任何負面監管影響 - 對巴西的其他影響 DTA 等等。

And my second question is about Brazil. How do you see your business operating in a higher selling environment? What is your appetite for long growth? How big a squeeze on margins from the higher rates, how sensitive the cost of risk to the Selic and then on you can update also on your transformation plans here in this market. Thank you.

我的第二個問題是關於巴西的。您如何看待您的業務在更高的銷售環境中運作？您對長期增長的興趣如何？利率提高對利潤率的擠壓有多大，風險成本對 Selic 的敏感度有多高，然後您還可以更新您在此市場中的轉型計劃。謝謝。

So on capital, let me just give you a high level and then Jose maybe we can give you a more detail or Hector, but let me just reiterate. We will distribute excess capital and our capital hierarchy is what we have said -- what I have said earlier, organic growth, distributions, discipline and inorganic and extraordinary over those aims. So again we have a lot of organic opportunity that is profitable. We cannot know how much of that is going to happen.

因此，在資本方面，讓我給您一個高水平的介紹，然後 Jose 也許我們可以給您更詳細的信息，或者 Hector，但讓我重申一下。我們將分配多餘的資本，我們的資本層級結構就是我們所說的──我之前所說的，有機成長、分配、紀律、無機和非凡的這些目標。因此，我們再次擁有大量可以帶來獲利的有機機會。我們無法知道這樣的情況將會發生多少。

Point number two, we're not changing our target for capital. It will remain above 12%. Our operating range will be between 12% to 13% and the excess buybacks over the ordinary buyback and cash distributions will be during '25 and '26. We are not going to be more precise than that again that go back to the hierarchy and we want to have and we want to deliver the best possible for our shareholders we have that optionality given our model. In terms of the regulatory ladder you want to hector or who wants to.

第二點，我們不會改變資本目標。仍將維持在12%以上。我們的營運範圍將在 12% 至 13% 之間，超過普通回購和現金分配的超額回購將在 '25 和 '26 年期間進行。我們不會再比這更精確地回​​到層級結構，我們希望擁有並希望為我們的股東提供最好的服務，我們在我們的模型下擁有這種選擇權。就監管階梯而言，你想威嚇別人還是誰想這樣做。

Hi, Riquel -- sorry, Riquel, so in terms of, risk with asset growth, we would expect ordinary business driven risk with the asset growth of around 4% to 5%, mostly compensated by, asset mobilization initiatives. So net we would expect to see very little risk with the asset growth, maybe 1% or 2%.

你好，Riquel——抱歉，Riquel，就資產成長風險而言，我們預期普通業務驅動的風險，資產成長約為 4% 至 5%，主要透過資產動員舉措來補償。因此，我們預期資產成長的淨風險很小，可能為 1% 或 2%。

Regulatory charges, we expect to have a figure close to 2024, and again there is a high degree of uncertainty here because of the technical notes that need to be released by the EVA, but a bit more, a bit less than what we have seen this year.

監管費用，我們預計該數字將接近 2024 年，而且由於 EVA 需要發布的技術說明，這裡再次存在高度不確定性，但比我們今年看到的要多一點，少一點。

Okay, let me give you the high level on Brazil. Let me just first say that with or without Brazil we will deliver on our guidance that's what we've done for the last 10 years. In terms of the group, let me remind you EUR62 billion approximately flat cost stable cost of risk with an RoTE after 81% of 16.5%. In terms of Brazil retail business, which is the one sensitive to moving rates. And these are numbers that with the additional transparency on the global business you can actually -- hopefully have as much confidence in that we will deliver as we do as a management team. So retail Brazil contributes about 38% of Brazil net profit, and that is 7%, 7% of the overall Santander group attributed profit.

好的，讓我來幫你介紹一下巴西的高層情況。首先我想說，無論有沒有巴西，我們都會履行我們的指導方針，這也是我們過去十年來所做的。就集團而言，讓我提醒您一下，81% 後的集團成本為 620 億歐元，風險成本穩定，RoTE 為 16.5%。就巴西零售業務而言，該業務對利率變動較為敏感。這些數字表明，隨著全球業務的透明度不斷提高，您可以真正提高——希望您能像管理團隊一樣對我們的成果充滿信心。因此，巴西零售業務貢獻了巴西淨利潤的約 38%，即桑坦德銀行集團整體利潤的 7%。

The rest of our global businesses in Brazil, which contribute more than 60% consumer, corporate payments and wealth, we expect to continue to do well. By the way, this is more or less the same as for all the other countries, i.e., for the group, 50% roughly of our bottom line, 60% of our balance sheet is retail. All the other businesses I said that in my presentation should grow revenues, more than -- much more than retail next year. So this is part of the work we've done in one transformation in consumer, it's part of the work we're doing with our network businesses leveraging on our customer relationships.

我們預計巴西其餘的全球業務將繼續表現良好，這些業務貢獻了 60% 以上的消費者、企業支付和財富。順便說一句，這與所有其他國家的情況大致相同，也就是說，對於該集團而言，我們底線的 50% 左右，資產負債表的 60% 是零售。我在演講中提到的所有其他業務明年的收入成長都應遠遠超過零售業。所以這是我們在消費者轉型中所做工作的一部分，也是我們利用客戶關係來開展網路業務的一部分工作。

All in all, what we expect is Brazil wrote it to be stable in '25 as a country driven by higher customer revenues and especially fee income contained cost and this is really important. One transformation will also be very important in Brazil, with a flat cost to income roughly in '25, and very important we have structurally improved the quality of our balance sheet in '22 and have been prudent on growth. Thank you.

總而言之，我們預計巴西在 25 年將保持穩定，因為巴西是一個受更高客戶收入（尤其是費用收入包含成本）驅動的國家，這一點非常重要。對於巴西來說，一項轉型也將非常重要，25年成本收入大致持平，而且非常重要的是，我們在22年結構性地改善了資產負債表的質量，並且對增長保持審慎。謝謝。

We have next question, please.

我們有下一個問題。

(inaudible) Goldman Sachs.

（聽不清楚）高盛。

Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. First of all, Ana, I appreciate the color you gave earlier on the strategy in the US. When you see and hear the messaging around potentially a more accommodating regulatory backdrop in that market, how does that impact the business in the US and where does that create opportunities and how could that potentially impact your strategy in the US, if at all?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。首先，Ana，我很欣賞你先前對美國戰略的闡述。當您看到和聽到有關該市場可能出現更寬鬆的監管背景的資訊時，這會對美國業務產生什麼影響？

And then secondly, that's more of a modeling question looking at Q4. There was a higher than usual level of other gains and losses and provisioning, and I think the full year number of EUR4.8 billion was up significantly year over year. Can you just walk through what is in that line and how much of that is investment into future efficiency improvements, restructuring, et cetera. And where should that line item trend across 2025 and '26? Thank you.

其次，這更像是針對 Q4 的建模問題。其他損益和撥備水準高於平常，我認為全年 48 億歐元的數字比去年同期大幅成長。您能否簡單介紹一下這條線路的內容以及其中有多少是對未來效率改善、重組等方面的投資？那麼 2025 年和 2026 年該計畫的趨勢該如何呢？謝謝。

Okay, so on the US, I've said that many times, operating context matters. So yes, other things equal if the operating context improves in the US that will naturally drive better returns, other things equal vis-a-vis other regions. So we cannot be too specific right now. We really don't know what's going to happen but everybody and ourselves included is anticipating a better operating context for banks in the United States which again other things equal should drive over time at least increase capital allocation, as I've said before.

好的，關於美國，我已經說過很多次了，經營環境很重要。因此，是的，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果美國的經營環境改善，自然會帶來更好的回報，與其他地區相比，其他條件相同。因此我們現在還不能說得太具體。我們真的不知道會發生什麼，但每個人，包括我們自己，都期待美國銀行的經營環境會更好，正如我之前所說的，在其他條件相同的情況下，隨著時間的推移，這應該至少會增加資本配置。

I mean you know our investment in the US has always and even more now since we are in a growth mode leverage the group if on top of that we get a better environment, we should do better and that's what I said before the US as a geography will be the one of the biggest upsides in our P&L without being too specific, but I think we said that the RoTE -- Hector said it. He said 14%, I would say Hector respectfully between 14% to 15% adjusted RoTE. I hope you agree on that. So yes, 14% to 15%.

我的意思是，你知道我們一直在美國投資，而且現在投資更多，因為我們處於增長模式，如果在此基礎上我們獲得更好的環境，我們應該做得更好，這就是我之前所說的，美國作為一個地理位置將是我們損益表中最大的上行空間之一，雖然不是太具體，但我認為我們說過 RoTE——赫克托說過。他說的是 14%，我認為 Hector 調整後的 RoTE 應該在 14% 到 15% 之間。我希望你同意這一點。所以是的，14% 到 15%。

And the reason is very simple consumer business is 70% and that already is higher and what's dragging down this year but not next year and of course very positive contribution is the CIB investment which as I said is leveraging the network.

原因很簡單，消費者業務佔 70%，而且已經很高了，今年拖累了業績，但明年不會，當然，非常積極的貢獻是 CIB 投資，正如我所說，它正在利用網絡。

In terms of other I would let either Hector or Jose to answer in a bit more detail but yes in that other, there are some one offs for example over EUR300 million if I remember correctly in in PagoNxt restructuring, this is going to drive a much better performance in our payments division next year again that's going to be one of the biggest upsides so we are very -- we're being very disciplined not just with our, where do we put our capital in terms of lending but where do we put our capital in terms of growth. We decided to get out of acquiring in Europe that is going to drive a much better performance by focusing on our core markets and acquiring which is mostly LatAm.

至於其他問題，我想讓 Hector 或 Jose 更詳細地回答，但是是的，在其他方面，有一些一次性支出，例如超過 3 億歐元，如果我沒有記錯的話，在 PagoNxt 重組中，這將再次推動我們支付部門明年的更好表現，這將是最大的好處之一，所以我們不僅是在哪裡我們決定放棄在歐洲的收購，透過專注於我們的核心市場和收購（主要是拉丁美洲），我們將獲得更好的業績。

There's a couple of things that are recurring there and a couple of others that are not so maybe do you want to take that Hector?

有幾件事在那裡重複出現，還有幾件事沒有出現，所以也許你想接受那個赫克托？

Sure, Ana, I mean, to complete what Ana just said in '24, the following one-off events impacted our P&L's especially, I mean, in Q1 '24, we had the higher temporary levy on the revenue earned in Spain. That's a EUR235 million in Q2 '24. I mean the write down that she was explaining about PagoNxt in Q3, EUR70 million related to the Fundación and in Q4, '24, that's EUR260 million provision taken for the situation with the moto in the UK.

當然，安娜，我的意思是，完成安娜剛才在 24 年所說的內容，以下一次性事件對我們的損益表產生了影響，尤其是在 24 年第一季度，我們對在西班牙獲得的收入徵收了更高的臨時稅。2024年第二季的營收為2.35億歐元。我的意思是，她解釋稱，第三季度 PagoNxt 的減記中，有 7000 萬歐元與 Fundación 有關，而 24 年第四季度，為應對英國摩托車的情況，又提提了 2.6 億歐元的準備金。

So all in all that's basically it and we don't expect any of those to basically repeat themselves maybe just I mean the terms of the tax levy in the Spain that we will be basically being impacted on the first quarter of this year.

所以總而言之，基本上就是這樣，我們不希望任何一個基本上重複，也許只是我的意思是西班牙的稅收徵收條款基本上會在今年第一季受到影響。

Thanks very much, Hector. Next question please.

非常感謝，赫克托。請回答下一個問題。

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Hi, good morning. I've got a couple of follow-ups on one on capital, another one on global platforms. On capital, there's a sort of a trend globally seems like around deregulation. I just wanted to pick your brains, Ana, maybe, on how do you think that's going to manifest itself for Santander, because ultimately I heard of course saying guiding for another close to 60 basis points, capital headwinds this year similar to last year, there was a press report earlier this week where you've taken the ECB, (inaudible) around the DTAs in Brazil. So can you maybe give us your latest thoughts on how regulators are going to treat the banks going forward and in particular, how do you see that playing out Santander.

嗨，早安。我對一個關於資本的問題和另一個關於全球平台的問題進行了後續跟進。就資本而言，全球似乎出現了一種放鬆管制的趨勢。Ana，我只是想向您請教一下，您認為這對桑坦德銀行來說會有什麼影響，因為最終我聽到的當然是預計利率將再上升近 60 個基點，今年的資本逆風與去年類似，本週早些時候有一份新聞報道稱，您已經就巴西的避免雙重徵稅協議 (DTA) 向歐洲央行提出了 (聽不清) 建議。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下監管機構未來將如何對待銀行的最新想法，特別是您認為桑坦德銀行將如何應對。

And second, on platforms on your consumer retail, I think your cost comes out 40%. I've heard your comments during the call, could you maybe walk us through which countries still need to roll out gravity from here? And when we think about how low those costs and all those that cost to income can go, who do you benchmark yourself against? Can you give us an idea of how good it can get? Thank you. Medium term, it doesn't have to. I heard your targets for this year. Thank you.

其次，在您的消費零售平台上，我認為您的成本達到了 40%。我在通話中聽到了您的評論，您能否向我們介紹哪些國家仍需要從這裡推出重力政策？當我們考慮這些成本以及所有成本收入可以降到多低時，您會以誰為基準呢？您能告訴我們它能達到多好嗎？謝謝。從中期來看，情況沒必要如此。我聽說了你今年的目標。謝謝。

So Alvaro, that is a tricky question. You're asking me what the regulators are going to do, I wish I knew. But I would say that for the first time in 10 years the probability and I've said it publicly, I've said it in many different occasions and recent meetings including I think in yours, I think first Europe has built EUR300 billion in capital something like this over the banks the last few years. The fact that we have built capital in many cases -- twice I mean our economic capital we've said many times is lower than our current targets and we will keep those targets of course because it's something which the market and regulators have surprised us.

所以阿爾瓦羅，這是一個棘手的問題。你問我監管機構將做什麼，我希望知道。但我想說，這是十年來第一次有這種可能性，我已經公開說過，我在許多不同場合和最近的會議上也說過，包括你們的會議在內，我認為歐洲首先在過去幾年中為銀行建立了 3000 億歐元的資本。事實上，在很多情況下，我們已經建立了資本——我的意思是，我們已經說過很多次了，我們的經濟資本低於我們當前的目標，當然，我們會保持這些目標，因為這是市場和監管機構令我們感到驚訝的事情。

So we don't -- we don't want to be surprised as we said 12% to 13% is a big buffer on buffers. But I would say that again for the first time in 10 years and especially given the outlook for the US regulation being, I would say less rather than more means that at least and this is again what I've said let's take a pause not just on regulation but how you interpret regulation. We need to be able to compete on a level playing field.

所以我們不想感到驚訝，正如我們所說，12% 到 13% 是一個很大的緩衝。但我十年來第一次再次這樣說，特別是考慮到美國監管的前景，我想說，少而不是多意味著至少，這也是我所說的，讓我們暫停一下，不僅要考慮監管，還要考慮如何解讀監管。我們需要能夠在公平的環境中競爭。

DTAs in Brazil. Even in the case of a dissolving the bank have value, the direct claim against the government we feel very strongly that puts us at a disadvantage as we compete with the US and local banks in Brazil. So it's not a big number by the way, it's more a question of principle because every single bank in Europe has similar issues.

巴西的避免雙重課稅協定。即使在銀行解散的情況下，該銀行仍然有價值，但我們強烈感覺到對政府的直接索賠，這使我們在與美國銀行和巴西本地銀行的競爭中處於不利地位。順便說一下，這不是一個很大的數字，這更多的是原則問題，因為歐洲的每家銀行都有類似的問題。

So I do think we should be in a more predictable era but there's still CRR, there's still models and so we want to make sure that and the big difference is that in spite of that given our strong profitability outlook, the change in the model, the fact a lot depends on us that's why we are saying we are aiming for additional distributions beyond the regular distributions.

因此，我確實認為我們應該處於一個更可預測的時代，但仍然有 CRR，仍然有模型，因此我們希望確保這一點，而最大的區別是，儘管如此，鑑於我們強勁的盈利前景，模型的變化，事實上很多都取決於我們，這就是為什麼我們說我們的目標是超越常規分配的額外分配。

In terms of retail on the platforms you've seen it in -- we call one transformation for the whole business model across the five divisions but the biggest upside is on retail and consumer. You've seen that. I think Hector just gave you some numbers. There's a lot of upside. Gravity is an enabler. It's not the biggest contributor to scaling.

就您所看到的平台零售而言——我們稱其為跨越五個部門的整個商業模式的一次轉型，但最大的好處是在零售和消費者方面。你已經看到了。我認為赫克托剛剛給了你一些數字。還有很多好處。重力是一種推動因素。它並不是造成擴展的最大因素。

The fact that you have gravity allows you to bring, through APIs, a lot of the other products, that we're building, a lot of the other benefits of being cloud native. Payments is another one payments hub which is still being rolled out. So a lot of the work is about aligning business model, aligning the organization, and then comes the technology, and that is why we see a lot of upside in our retail consumer platform basically bringing together 170 million customers which we have about 4 million companies, commercial corporates, but a lot of that is retail consumer.

事實上，有了引力，你就可以透過 API 帶來我們正在建構的許多其他產品，以及雲端原生的許多其他好處。支付是另一個仍在推出的支付中心。因此，許多工作都是為了調整商業模式、調整組織，然後才是技術，這就是為什麼我們看到我們的零售消費者平台有很多上升空間，該平台基本上匯集了 1.7 億客戶，其中我們擁有大約 400 萬家公司、商業企業，但其中許多是零售消費者。

Alvaro, just really quickly, I mean, as, Ana was saying, just retail and consumer and, are the ones that are the most important ones. I mean, in terms of cost to income, retail and consumer is going to be around flat in terms of cost to income and consumer basically is going to be down low single digits, okay, so that's what we are seeing for '25. Thank you.

阿爾瓦羅，我的意思是，正如安娜所說，零售和消費者是最重要的。我的意思是，就成本收入而言，零售和消費者的成本收入將基本持平，而消費者成本收入基本上將下降個位數，好的，這就是我們在25年看到的情況。謝謝。

Thanks very much Alvaro. Can we have the next question please.

非常感謝阿爾瓦羅。請問我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.

安德烈亞·菲爾特里（Andrea Filtri），Mediobanca。

Thank you for taking my questions. I'll start with, your guidance. Consensus is over EUR1 billion behind, your minimum guidance for 2025 profits. Do you see further growth in 2026 over '25, and where is consensus too conservative from your standpoint?

感謝您回答我的問題。首先，請聽聽您的指導。共識是落後 10 億歐元，這是您對 2025 年利潤的最低指引。您是否認為 2026 年會比 2025 年有進一步成長？

Second question is on one transformation, a bit of a follow up to what Alvaro just asked. But where are the next geographies you're planning to roll the plan out to, and, given you're now looking at absolute numbers, how much do you think one transformation will save in absolute EUR1 billion at full facing?

第二個問題是關於一次轉變，與阿爾瓦羅剛才提出的問題有點相似。但是，您計劃在下一個地區推行該計劃嗎？

And finally in capital, 13% CT1 is what we hoped to convince the market on something there's capital strength. I hear you on the maintaining 12% to 13% operating level, but are you amending the 10 basis points to 15 basis points organic CT1 client per quarter, which was based on a much lower profitability and approach to this asset.

最後在資本方面，我們希望 CT1 的比率達到 13%，讓市場相信其資本實力。我聽說您維持 12% 至 13% 的營運水平，但您是否會將每季有機 CT1 客戶 10 個基點修改為 15 個基點，這是基於更低的盈利能力和對該資產的處理方式。

And, Jose, can you please make explicit what sort of regulatory hurdles you're expecting for in basis points, given you just said it will be similar to 2024. Thank you.

而且，Jose，鑑於您剛才說過它將與 2024 年類似，您能否明確說明您預計基點會面臨什麼樣的監管障礙。謝謝。

So the answer to your first question without being very specific on numbers is we will grow our bottom line and we will grow our profitability in '25 and I think, I can say that our expectation is this will continue in '26, '27. You will get a lot more detail in our next Investor Day which we expect to do towards the end of this year or beginning of next year.

因此，對於你的第一個問題，無需具體說明數字，我的答案是，我們將在'25 年提高我們的底線利潤和盈利能力，我想，我可以說，我們預計這種狀況將在'26 年、'27 年繼續下去。我們預計將在今年年底或明年年初舉辦下一次投資者日，屆時您將會了解更多詳細資訊。

The model still has a lot of upside, as I've said today, we're only scratching the surface of our potential as a group. In a context that we do anticipate and we count would be volatile, more challenging, we're saying we will grow profits and profitability with stable cost in euros and cost coming down and stable cost of risk. So again, yes, Santander will continue to deliver increasing profits and profitability with all the evidence and with all the obviously market assumptions we're making, so yes.

該模型仍然具有很大的優勢，正如我今天所說的，我們才剛剛觸及整個團隊潛力的表面。在我們預期的、波動性和挑戰性的環境下，我們表示，我們將在歐元成本穩定、成本下降和風險成本穩定的情況下增加利潤和獲利能力。所以，是的，桑坦德銀行將繼續根據所有證據和我們所做的所有明顯的市場假設來實現不斷增長的利潤和盈利能力，所以是的。

In terms of one transformation, at the end we are aiming to grow customers grow revenues and improve efficiency. This is not about cost savings. This is about changing fundamentally how we operate the bank. We're working across the bank to make sure there's end to end accountability for example the same way we're building payments have for gravity we're going to build investments and others, what this means is that you're going to see the savings not just in one country but in the global business benefiting all the countries.

就轉型而言，我們的最終目標是增加客戶，增加收入，提高效率。這與節省成本無關。這將從根本上改變我們經營銀行的方式。我們正在全行範圍內開展工作，以確保端到端的責任制，例如，我們為重力建立支付的方式與我們為投資和其他方式建立支付的方式相同，這意味著你會看到不僅僅是在一個國家實現節約，而且在全球業務中，所有國家都會受益。

This is very important difference. As I said before, by being part of Santander, we're generating EUR20 billion already today of network efficiencies. This is how we will generate further efficiencies. Today we're still building investment products in Openbank, in retail, in wealth, as of next month we're going to have and Hector, please confirm this because that's actually between both of us but and Hector once we create a single investment platform across the group we're going to save money, we're going to build a better investment platform and we're going to grow faster and so you need to think of this by global businesses.

這是一個非常重要的區別。正如我之前所說，作為桑坦德銀行的一部分，我們今天已經創造了 200 億歐元的網路效率。這就是我們如何進一步提高效率。今天我們仍在 Openbank、零售和財富領域建立投資產品，從下個月開始，我們將擁有和 Hector，請確認這一點，因為這實際上是我們兩人之間的事，但是和 Hector 一起，一旦我們在整個集團內創建了一個單一的投資平台，我們就會節省資金，我們將建立一個更好的投資平台，我們將更快地考慮，所以你需要從全球業務的角度來考慮這個問題。

Having said that, what is at the end the bottom line best performing division next year, in terms of the delta, retail will be more or less flat, in terms of profitability because yes, rates matter not as much as people think because if you go country by country it's only 50% roughly -- 55%, 45% that is retail and of that -- there is diversification by country so. Again, you'll see absolute cost savings across the divisions and some of that will benefit one countries more than another.

話雖如此，從獲利能力來看，零售業明年表現最好的部門最終會持平，因為利率並不像人們想像的那麼重要，因為如果你逐個國家來看，只有大約 50%——55%，45% 是零售，其中——各國的分佈是多樣化的。再一次，你會看到各部門的絕對成本節省，其中一些國家比另一個國家受益更多。

Maybe Hector you want to add to that briefly in terms of in a minute but in terms of capital just going regular regulatory hurdles maybe Jose you can take that more detailed one 12% to 13% is our operating range we've been very clear on that. 13% is not a new minimum, but it is where we want to be by the end of this year. We will distribute excess capital following our capital hierarchy of, more or less organic profitable growth and again that's difficult to predict. We want to make sure we maximize shareholder value creation, 10 basis points, 15 basis points per quarter that is actually much more than that now. But why don't I let you answer that?

也許赫克托 (Hector) 你想在一分鐘內簡要補充一下，但就資本而言，只是常規的監管障礙，也許何塞 (Jose) 你可以更詳細地說明一下，12％到 13％ 是我們的運營範圍，我們對此非常清楚。 13% 並不是一個新的最低值，但這是我們在今年年底想要達到的目標。我們將按照我們的資本層級來分配過剩資本，或多或少是有機獲利成長，但這很難預測。我們希望確保最大限度地創造股東價值，每季 10 個基點、15 個基點，現在實際上要多得多。但我為什麼不讓你回答這個問題呢？

Hi Andrea. Now in terms of the regulatory charges, is a combination of lots of small things in terms of model reviews and updates, inspections, and the potential impacts from the RTS is published by the, EBA. And in terms of 10 basis points to 15 basis points per quarter, we are not changing that, I think we have great growth opportunities as I discussed.

你好，安德里亞。現在就監管費用而言，它是模型審查和更新、檢查等許多小事項的組合，而 EBA 發布的 RTS 的潛在影響也是如此。就每季 10 個基點到 15 個基點而言，我們不會改變這一點，我認為正如我所討論的那樣，我們有巨大的成長機會。

And the growth, the most important thing is not evenly distributed throughout the year. So it's the growth in capital as we saw this year, it's sort of, happened tend to concentrate towards the end of the year, second quarter and fourth quarter.

最重要的是，這種增長在全年中並不是均勻分佈的。因此，正如我們今年所看到的，資本的成長似乎集中在年底、第二季和第四季。

Thank you Andrea. Just to compliment to what Ana was saying, there are three very important points, and I'm going to be very brief. I mean, first of all, we're becoming the number one bank to our customer. That's basically the most important change of the model. That's why you see fees growing and if you analyze country by country, you're going to see, for example, in retail, this is the biggest change that and that's what be basically guiding you meet high single digit growth in terms of fees, okay, that's the change of the model.

謝謝你，安德里亞。為了補充 Ana 所說的話，有三個非常重要的觀點，我會非常簡短地講一下。我的意思是，首先，我們正在成為客戶首選的銀行。這基本上是模型最重要的變化。這就是費用不斷增長的原因，如果你逐個國家進行分析，你會看到，例如，在零售業，這是最大的變化，這基本上可以指導你實現費用的高個位數增長，好吧，這就是模型的變化。

Remember, that also the change of the model is not just the platforms, it's basically simplification which is helping us and it's dropping the amount of products. Now we just offered no more than 50 products to our customers. We still have a lot of the backlog, we're automatizing all of that.

請記住，模型的改變不僅僅是平台，它基本上是簡化，這對我們有幫助，並且減少了產品數量。目前我們提供給客戶的產品不超過50種。我們還有很多積壓的工作，我們正在將其全部自動化。

So automation is another very important part. And then the deployment of the platforms where the -- for example we finished the deployment of one up all of Europe. You see the results of NPS on the UK now it's coming down to Brazil. Mid part of the year is going to be in Mexico and then it's coming down to Chile and Argentina, and that you're going to be basically see the results which will improve -- first of all again being number one bank to our customers and second, the fee generations. Thank you.

因此自動化是另一個非常重要的部分。然後是平台的部署——例如，我們完成了整個歐洲的平台部署。您可以看到 NPS 在英國的結果現在正在影響巴西。今年年中我們將在墨西哥開展業務，然後是智利和阿根廷，你將看到業績基本上有所改善 — — 首先，我們再次成為客戶心目中第一的銀行，其次，費用產生情況也有所改善。謝謝。

Thanks very much, Hector. Can we have the next question please.

非常感謝，赫克托。請問我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Cecilia Romero, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的塞西莉亞·羅梅羅。

Thank you very much for taking my question and congratulations on the results. My first one is in your growth strategy. Where do you see the most significant opportunities for expansion and growth over the next two years geographically? You talked about the US, but is there any other countries where you see the bank gaining a scale, for example, Mexico.

非常感謝您回答我的問題，並對結果表示祝賀。我的第一個問題是你的成長策略。從地理位置來看，您認為未來兩年​​內最大的擴張和成長機會在哪裡？您談到了美國，但在其他國家，您是否認為該銀行的規模正在擴大？

Also, I wanted to ask you on the quarter in regards to the very different dynamics that we're seeing in Portugal and Spain in AI. Spain was flat and Portugal at 11%. Could you explain why it's such a divergent trend and is this what we're going to see in 2025, a resilient NII in Spain and an NII in Portugal falling double digits, and could you please let us know what your race assumption is in this guidance. Thank you.

此外，我想問您關於本季度葡萄牙和西班牙在人工智慧領域看到的截然不同的動態的問題。西班牙持平，葡萄牙成長 11%。您能否解釋為什麼趨勢如此不同，這是否是我們將在 2025 年看到的，西班牙的 NII 呈現回彈態勢，而葡萄牙的 NII 則出現兩位數的下降，您能否讓我們知道您在此指導中的種族假設是什麼。謝謝。

So, in terms of growth for the next couple of years, and again we are looking at this by global businesses so. And I will give you detail by country within the global business. In terms of growth and this is important. Retail will not grow much in the next year. '26 will see what happens to growth and revenues. We we're putting much more emphasis at least for now on profitability. We've grown 8 million customers. We're growing the top line not just because of the euro rates benefit this year but also because 8 million customers is a lot of customers. So again given the context, our top line in retail will not grow as much in '25, within that there will be differences, as I've said.

因此，就未來幾年的成長而言，我們再次從全球企業的角度來看這個問題。我將向您詳細介紹全球業務中各個國家的情況。從成長方面來看，這一點很重要。明年零售業不會有太大成長。 '26年我們將會看到成長和收入會發生什麼變化。至少目前，我們更加重視獲利能力。我們的客戶數量已增至 800 萬。我們的營業額成長不僅是因為今年歐元利率優惠，還因為 800 萬客戶數量是一個很大的數字。所以再次考慮到這種情況，我們的零售業務營收在 25 年不會成長那麼多，正如我所說的那樣，其中會存在差異。

If you look at -- within retail, what other countries that will grow more or less? I mean, obviously in the Euro area will grow less because of the impact, but fees will grow to compensate partly and 50% of our businesses that are not retail, will all grow the top line and the bottom line including consumer in the US and Europe that is why I said the US will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the lower rates even I want to stress not as low as probably the market thinks. I will let maybe Jose, give some of the assumptions behind these numbers.

如果你看一下零售業，還有哪些國家的成長會更快或更慢？我的意思是，顯然歐元區的成長會因為影響而減少，但費用會增加以進行部分補償，而我們 50% 的非零售業務，包括美國和歐洲的消費者，都將實現營收和淨利潤的增長，這就是為什麼我說美國將是低利率的最大受益者之一，儘管我想強調的是，利率可能沒有市場想像的那麼低。我會讓 Jose 給出這些數字背後的一些假設。

In terms of NII in Spain and Portugal, let me go back again to the global business and I will tell you within that. So if you look at retail, the countries that will grow will not be the European countries. Top line I'm saying profitability will be the same, maybe a bit lower in some of them and higher in others within retail. Overall, the retail and again the four big countries are roughly 70% of retail. The other 50% is not sensitive to higher rates -- sorry, it's not rate sensitive but it does. At least as well if not better again given the investments with the lower rate environment.

關於西班牙和葡萄牙的國家資訊基礎結構，讓我再次回到全球業務，然後我會告訴您。因此，如果你看零售業，成長的國家將不會是歐洲國家。我最想說的是，獲利能力將會維持不變，在零售業中，有些產業的獲利能力可能會低一點，而其他產業的獲利能力可能會高一點。整體來說，零售業，四大國大概佔零售業的70%。其餘 50% 對更高的利率不敏感 - 抱歉，它對利率不敏感，但實際上它確實對利率敏感。考慮到較低利率環境的投資，至少情況同樣好，甚至更好。

For Spain you can give the, maybe the guidance for Spain which is one of the guidance we're going to give.

對於西班牙，您可以給予一些指導，也許是針對西班牙的指導，這是我們將要提供的指導之一。

Okay, so let me very quickly go through the measures we've taken to decrease the interest rate sensitivity in the Euro zone and we have taken three very important measures. One, we have a an ALCO portfolio that has grown, that has been created in the last 1.5 year. Right now in the Euro zone we have a total of EUR67 billion of government bonds.

好的，那麼讓我快速介紹一下我們為降低歐元區利率敏感度所採取的措施，我們採取了三個非常重要的措施。首先，我們擁有一個在過去 1.5 年內不斷成長的 ALCO 投資組合。目前，歐元區政府公債總額達 670 億歐元。

The second we implemented hedges on the asset side of the balance sheet, particularly mortgages through forward starts that go up to two years, and we also increase the percentage of liabilities at variable rates. With this, if you look at NII in Spain in the fourth quarter with which basically concentrates on the retail business, you see a negative impact of around 2% from volumes and also margins that decreased around 17%, but this was compensated by the positive impacts of these measures that I just mentioned. Hedges added around EUR100 million to NII. And the ALCO portfolio around EUR180 million to the NII. That's why NII in the quarter was basically flat.

第二，我們在資產負債表的資產方實施了對沖，特別是透過最長兩年的遠期抵押貸款，同時我們也增加了以浮動利率計價的負債百分比。因此，如果您查看西班牙第四季度的NII，其主要集中在零售業務上，您會發現銷量產生了約2％的負面影響，利潤率也下降了約17％，但這被我剛才提到的這些措施的積極影響所彌補。對沖為 NII 增添了約 1 億歐元。ALCO 向 NII 投資了約 1.8 億歐元。這就是本季NII基本持平的原因。

Going forward, NII in Spain again, which is mostly and primarily concentrated in the retail business. If rates stay and stabilized at around 2%, we would expect to see NII in Spain to drop between 5% to 6% next year, so that is the sensitivity.

展望未來，西班牙的NII將再次主要集中在零售業務。如果利率保持穩定在 2% 左右，我們預計西班牙的 NII 明年將下降 5% 至 6%，因此這就是敏感度。

But let me reiterate again that we have decreased the percentage of assets and liabilities subject to rates in Spain. In December '22, 76% of assets was floating, 46% of liabilities was floating. In December '24, only 64% of assets were floating and 51% of liabilities were floating, so we decrease. The sensitivity on the asset side while increase the sensitivity on the liability side, so we are much better prepared for lower rates.

但讓我再次重申，我們已經降低了西班牙受利率影響的資產和負債的百分比。22年12月，76%的資產處於浮動狀態，46%的負債處於浮動狀態。12 月 12 日，只有 64% 的資產是浮動的，51% 的負債是浮動的，因此我們減少了。資產方面的敏感度降低，同時增加了負債方面的敏感性，因此我們對較低的利率有了更好的準備。

Thanks very much, Jose. Can we have the next question, please.

非常感謝，何塞。請問我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

卡洛斯‧佩索托 (Carlos Peixoto)，CaixaBank。

Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I'll shift the question a bit to Mexico. So you had a relatively good performance in the quarter. I was wondering how do you see -- how do you expect evolution in terms of volumes and also an NII into 2025 and whether you have any sensitivity to any impacts that potential tariffs which were now delayed for a month, but let's see what happens there.

是的，你好，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想把問題轉移到墨西哥。所以你們在本季的表現相對較好。我想知道您如何看待——您預計 2025 年產量和國家資訊基礎結構 (NII) 方面將如何發展，以及您是否對目前已推遲一個月的潛在關稅所產生的影響感到敏感，但讓我們看看那裡會發生什麼。

Well, basically your views on how could that affect overall activity in the country, particularly in the global areas in CIB that's -- in Mexico, which by the way, if you could tell us how much it accounts for Mexico contribution to be interesting.

嗯，基本上你對這會如何影響該國整體活動的看法，特別是在 CIB 的全球領域 - 在墨西哥，順便說一句，如果你能告訴我們它佔墨西哥貢獻的多少，那將會很有趣。

And then, just a small clarification on the capital organic generation that you mentioned before, the 10 basis points to 15 basis points per quarter. I just wanted to understand if that's already net generation -- net of the regulatory impacts, the 60 basis points you mentioned, or is that before the regulatory impacts? Thank you very much.

然後，稍微澄清一下您之前提到的資本有機生成，即每季 10 個基點到 15 個基點。我只是想了解這是否已經是淨發電量 - 扣除監管影響，即您提到的 60 個基點，還是在監管影響之前？非常感謝。

So again, let me just reiterate and I'll get to Mexico in a minute, but, we have significant business and geographic diversification. Mexico, like other countries, is roughly 50%, I think probably, between 45% to 55% is retail. And the percentage of revenue and roughly also bottom line of Mexico when the retail is 12% and Mexico is around 15% of the total.

所以，讓我再重申一下，我馬上就會談到墨西哥，但是，我們的業務和地理多樣化程度顯著提高。墨西哥和其他國家一樣，零售業約佔50%，我認為可能在45%到55%之間。當零售額為 12% 而墨西哥佔總收入的 15% 左右時，墨西哥的收入百分比和底線大致相同。

So again not a huge contribution on retail which is going to be the one most sensitive to volumes. Half of our business and I let Hector go into that in more detail is with corporates and affluent. We have a lot of high quality business in Mexico actually the biggest opportunity is in the retail, i.e., in the mass market we have also launched Openbank there to take advantage of that and we have been very prudent in terms of our lending much more than other peers, we have focused over the last few months actually on the higher quality segment.

因此，這對零售業來說不會有太大的貢獻，因為它對銷售最為敏感。我們的業務有一半是針對企業和富人的，我讓赫克托更詳細地講解這一點。我們在墨西哥有很多優質業務，實際上最大的機會是在零售業，也就是在大眾市場，我們也在那裡推出了 Openbank 來利用這一點，而且我們在貸款方面比其他同行更加謹慎，過去幾個月我們實際上一直專注於更高質量的領域。

So clearly the Mexican economy could be more affected than others but it should not have a significant impact on our expected delivery. So maybe you want to give a bit more color on Mexico.

因此，很明顯墨西哥經濟可能比其他經濟受到更大的影響，但這不會對我們的預期交付產生重大影響。所以也許你想多了解墨西哥。

I think you explain it very well Ana. I mean the fact of the matter is that we have been, I would say prudent, given the environment in Mexico. We've been, growing a lot less than our competitors because we believe that it was important to be conservative. We are very much concentrated on going towards the part of the portfolio that has collateral. We've been concentrated a lot more on auto loans, on mortgages, and we've been decreasing even though we have been growing in consumer, not as much as the rest of the market.

我認為 Ana 你解釋得非常好。事實上，考慮到墨西哥的環境，我們一直很謹慎。我們的成長速度一直比競爭對手慢很多，因為我們認為保守很重要。我們非常集中在投資組合中擁有抵押品的部分。我們把更多的精力集中在汽車貸款和抵押貸款上，雖然我們的消費貸款有所成長，但成長速度不及其他市場，因此我們的業務一直在下降。

So I basically very comfortable of what are we doing there, and I believe that the guidance that I can give you, given that we're including a mild trade war. We're talking about Mexico in terms of revenue up high single digits, okay? And in terms of a RoTE between around 20% to 22% again it's in constant. No view on FX, okay? Thank you.

因此，我基本上對我們在那裡所做的事情感到非常放心，我相信，考慮到我們正在進行一場溫和的貿易戰，我可以給你指導。我們談論的是墨西哥的收入成長了個位數，好嗎？就 RoTE 而言，其再次保持在 20% 至 22% 左右的範圍內。對 FX 沒有看法，好嗎？謝謝。

Okay. It's pre regulatory charges.

好的。這是監理前的收費。

Thanks very much, Jose. Can we have the next question, please?

非常感謝，何塞。我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Sofie Peterzens, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的索菲彼得森（Sofie Peterzens）。

Yeah, hi, this is Sofie, from JPMorgan. Thanks for taking my question. So just going back to the guidance, I know you have now given guidance for net interest income in saying that it will be down 5% to 6% if I right, (inaudible) and you also gave guidance for the UK and Mexico, but with that, the third quarter results, you gave guidance on a country by country level for net interest income. Would that be possible to also get now for 2025.

是的，嗨，我是摩根大通的蘇菲。感謝您回答我的問題。所以回到指引上，我知道您現在已經給出了淨利息收入的指引，如果我沒記錯的話，它將下降 5% 到 6%，（聽不清楚）您還給出了英國和墨西哥的指引，但是，對於第三季度的業績，您給出了每個國家層面的淨利息收入指引。現在也能達成 2025 年的目標嗎？

And then my second question would be, I know you've mentioned that the UK is the core part of Santander, but and you focus on organic growth, but if you could kind of talk about M&A, how you view your peers that are heavily involved in M&A, do you think that will change the European banking landscape and how do you see Santander, kind of positioned in a landscape where you have more M&A and probably you kind of evaluate any opportunities that arise potentially in Portugal, potentially elsewhere in Europe. So if you could comment on this. Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，我知道您提到英國是桑坦德銀行的核心部分，但您專注於有機增長，但如果您可以談談併購，您如何看待深度參與併購的同行，您認為這會改變歐洲銀行業格局嗎？所以如果你能對此發表評論。謝謝。

So, we're going to give -- just on your first question thank you. We're not going to give detailed NII by country. We're going to give most of the countries and, Jose can explain that. I'd like to go back to what we are committing and it's on the last slide, I think the last slide in the presentation. Revenues in EUR62 billion roughly the same as this year, mid-high single digit growth and fees.

因此，我們將—就您的第一個問題向您表示感謝。我們不會提供各國詳細的國家資訊基礎資料。我們將給出大多數國家的信息，Jose 可以解釋這一點。我想回到我們所承諾的內容，它在最後一張投影片上，我想是簡報中的最後一張投影片。營收為 620 億歐元，與今年大致相同，費用為中高個位數成長。

And then by divisions I think we have given also you know and I think Hector has mentioned retail which is 50% of the group flat revenues and more or less flat returns consumer again mostly 90% of that is Europe and the US revenues up mid single digit and profitability improving significantly including in the US, our corporate bank, which is about 20% of our profits and 14% of our revenues.

然後按部門劃分，我想我們也已經給出了，我想 Hector 提到了零售，它佔集團固定收入的 50%，回報也基本持平，消費者再次大多是固定的，其中 90% 是歐洲和美國的收入增長了中等個位數，盈利能力顯著提高，包括在美國，我們的企業銀行，它約占我們的 20% 和利潤的 14%。

Revenues up, profitability improving to 20%, which is roughly where we said would be by this year. Wealth 10% payments a big delta because of the restructuring. So I think that is much more detail we've given you and I think I don't -- I cannot add much more on that.

收入增加，獲利能力提高到 20%，這大致是我們所說的今年應該達到的水平。由於重組，財富 10% 支付出現巨大差異。所以我認為我們已經給你了很多細節，但我想我不能就此補充更多了。

In terms of the UK and M&A, I want to say several things. First, we do not need to buy or sell to allocate capital to the more interesting opportunities for Santander shareholders where we combine, profitability, growth, franchise, and that's what we are doing in a very dynamic way across our footprint. In terms of how we think about this, I want to go back to what I said I think at the beginning of the call in terms of how we think about capital allocation.

關於英國和併購，我想說幾件事。首先，我們不需要購買或出售來將資本分配給對桑坦德股東更有趣的機會，我們將盈利能力、成長、特許經營結合起來，這就是我們在整個業務範圍內以非常動態的方式所做的事情。關於我們如何看待這個問題，我想回到我在電話會議開始時所說的內容，即我們如何看待資本配置。

In a context where we anticipate excess capital given the higher profitability, we are being very strict and very disciplined. First, we prioritize profitable organic growth and investments across our current footprint. Santander, this is how you should think of us. We're a compounder. We're going to compound earnings, returns, book value and distributions.

由於獲利能力提高，我們預期資本過剩，因此我們非常嚴格，紀律嚴明。首先，我們優先考慮在現有業務範圍內實現盈利性的有機成長和投資。桑坦德，你應該這樣看待我們。我們是一家複合材料生產商。我們將增加收益、回報、帳面價值和分配。

Second is ordinary dividends and distributions including buybacks. Third, inorganic. Let me just say this again, it must be complementary to our strategic aims, generate attractive financial returns, which means that they have to surpass those of organic investments or share buybacks. And then, and this is the first time in 10 years, we anticipate excess capital given our plans.

第二是普通股利和分配，包括回購。三、無機。我再說一遍，它必須與我們的策略目標相補充，產生有吸引力的財務回報，這意味著它們必須超過有機投資或股票回購的回報。然後，這是十年來我們第一次根據計劃預計資本過剩。

I want to reiterate again we are very good at predicting within a range of 2% to 3% on average the last 10 years actually you can go back more. Some of our shareholders know this. Every quarter we have very little earnings volatility. This perception of volatility is not, based on facts it's based on perception.

我想再次重申，我們非常擅長預測過去 10 年平均 2% 到 3% 的範圍內的成長，實際上你可以追溯得更多。我們的一些股東知道這一點。每個季度我們的獲利波動都很小。對於波動性的這種認知並非基於事實，而是基於認知。

So again, any incremental capital that exceeds our target range operating -- we're not actually -- sorry -- that exceeds the other opportunities I just mentioned would be returned as additional remunerations and that's how we think about inorganic. Let me just say that the framework in Europe. It's not there for cross border M&A and that is why you're seeing some of our peers that don't have alternative profitable growth looking more at in market M&A, but that's not where we are.

所以再說一次，任何超出我們目標運營範圍的增量資本 - 我們實際上並沒有 - 抱歉 - 超出我剛才提到的其他機會的增量資本都將作為額外報酬返還，這就是我們對無機資本的看法。我只想說一下歐洲的框架。我們還沒有實現跨境併購，因此你會看到我們的一些同行沒有其他盈利增長點，而更多地關注市場併購，但我們的情況並非如此。

Can we have the next question, please?

我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Antonio Reale, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安東尼奧·雷亞萊 (Antonio Reale)。

Hi, good morning. It's Antonio from Bank of America. Just two questions for me, please. So you've introduced this new commitment to pay EUR10 billion buybacks over '25 and '26. Now you've talked about shifting capital within the group rather than asset sales, and this has been an important part of your strategy, maybe can you talk a little bit more about that point to give us a sense of the flexibility that you retain to shift capital across the group, meet your profit guidance, and still achieve the buyback commitment should the macro picture worsen just to get a sense of the flexibility that you retain there on the capital optimization.

嗨，早安。我是美國銀行的安東尼奧。請問我兩個問題。因此，您提出了這項新承諾，即在 25 年和 26 年支付 100 億歐元的回購費用。現在您談到了集團內部的資本轉移而不是資產出售，這是您策略的重要組成部分，也許您能否就這一點再多談一點，讓我們了解一下您在集團內部轉移資本、實現利潤預期、並在宏觀形勢惡化時仍能實現回購承諾方面所保留的靈活性，以了解您在資本優化方面所保留的靈活性。

And the second point you've mentioned the group is highly diversified. You've given, I think, a very good overview of your expectations for 2025 across products. Can I just go back to Brazil and could you share the same for the region? It's a relatively large share of your group, and it's a market focused region. I particularly dig more into the link between net interest margins, loan origination, and affordability ultimately reflected in, cost of risk for Brazil and maybe the measures that you've put in place at your local unit to go through the cycling cycle, please. Thank you.

您提到的第二點是集團高度多元化。我認為，您對 2025 年各產品的期望給出了非常好的概述。我可以回到巴西嗎？這是你們集團相對較大的部分業務，而且是一個以市場為中心的地區。我特別想深入研究淨利差、貸款發放和最終反映在巴西風險成本中的負擔能力之間的聯繫，以及您在當地單位為應對循環週期而採取的措施。謝謝。

So, I mean just to give you some color on organic capital across the group. So we started working on this 10 years ago. We didn't have the tools to manage regulatory capital. We're always very good at managing economic capital. Today we have a very dynamic capital allocation strategy, so we shift on a weekly basis where we put more or less capital depending on the opportunities of course there's a franchise consideration I mean, why would we write lots of mortgages in Spain below 2%, when I can get much better value in mortgages in Mexico.

所以，我只是想讓你們了解一下整個集團的有機資本。所以我們十年前就開始致力於此。我們沒有管理監管資本的工具。我們一直非常擅長管理經濟資本。今天，我們有一個非常動態的資本配置策略，因此我們每週都會進行調整，根據機會投入更多或更少的資本，當然，還有一個特許經營權的考慮，我的意思是，為什麼我們要在西班牙簽發大量低於 2% 的抵押貸款，而我可以在墨西哥獲得更好的抵押貸款價值。

This is one of the reasons that giving guidance very specifically on countries is not something that we're very keen on because we will deliver at the group level and we're making more and more profits and increasing profitability because we are managing in a dynamic way, we do not have a crystal ball, right? We don't know what the peers are going to do, we don't know exactly what the rates are going to be. So we managed it manage this, it reports to the Chief Investment Officers to the CFO and to the CEO who are top down, managing this with the global business and the countries.

這就是我們不太願意針對各國給出非常具體的指導的原因之一，因為我們將在集團層面上實現目標，而且我們正在賺取越來越多的利潤並提高盈利能力，因為我們採用的是動態管理的方式，我們沒有水晶球，對吧？我們不知道同業將會做什麼，我們也不知道具體的利率將會是多少。因此，我們對其進行了管理，並向自上而下的首席投資官、首席財務官和首席執行官匯報，管理全球業務和各個國家。

This is really the huge advantage you have with Santander. 87% and we are, prioritizing profitability ahead of growth, but as I said, 8 million customers, new customers in the context of focusing on profitability. Can you imagine once we're at the levels and our operating platform is more competitive, which it will be, we can have organic growth for many years to go.

這確實是桑坦德銀行帶來的巨大優勢。 87% 我們優先考慮獲利能力，而不是成長，但正如我所說，800 萬客戶，新客戶是在關注獲利能力的背景下的。你能想像一旦我們達到這個水平，我們的營運平台就會更具競爭力，我們可以在未來許多年內實現有機成長嗎？

So yes that is what we do every day, that's I don't exaggerate but every week. So going back to that, and I defer to Hector or Jose, but on Brazil I think we've said, so Brazil as a country I think Hector has said it, but if not, let me reiterate we expect revenue to go up and more or less stable returns.

是的，這就是我們每天所做的事情，我沒有誇張，但每週都是如此。所以回到這個問題上，我尊重赫克託或何塞的意見，但關於巴西，我想我們已經說過了，所以巴西作為一個國家，我想赫克托已經說過了，但如果沒有，讓我重申一下，我們預計收入會增加，回報或多或少會穩定。

That is where we see Brazil, but let me just be very clear that as I said before, if you look at the retail business and how much of the retail business, which is 50% and the most sensitive one to what rates might do or not, retail Brazil is about 23% -- no, retail Brazil is 23% of retail of the group, right?

這就是我們看到的巴西，但讓我非常清楚地表明，正如我之前所說的，如果你看看零售業務，零售業務佔 50%，並且對利率變動最為敏感，巴西的零售業務約為 23% - 不，巴西的零售業務佔該集團零售業務的 23%，對嗎？

Half of the top line on the business of Brazil is non-retail roughly. And that is not sensitive to rates, obviously cost of risk matters but that is something which we've also been, diversifying. So again, Brazil should do about the same as this year in terms of profitability with higher revenues and the 50% that is not retail, which is not rate sensitive being one of the drivers in Brazil this year.

巴西商業收入的大約一半來自非零售領域。這對利率並不敏感，顯然風險成本很重要，但這也是我們一直在多樣化的事情。因此，巴西的獲利能力今年應該與今年大致相同，收入更高，且 50% 不是零售，對利率不敏感，這是今年巴西獲利能力的驅動因素之一。

Just to complement what Ana said, okay, it's very important that Brazil is the place that you can see where we're changing the model in terms of NII, being, not the driver but actually, being fees the driver in the sense that we're doing things, okay. Deposit and fees is exactly what we're concentrated on. We have changed a mix of the portfolio this basically making us most resilient to rates.

只是為了補充 Ana 所說的，好的，非常重要的一點是，巴西是您可以看到我們在 NII 方面的模式正在發生變化的地方，這不是驅動因素，而是實際上，從我們正在做的事情的意義上講，費用是驅動因素，好的。存款和費用正是我們關注的重點。我們改變了投資組合，這基本上使我們對利率具有最強的抵禦能力。

And has reduced the sensitivity to higher rates through the hedging, we are 100% hedge for '25 on the P&L in Brazil. So it's very important that you know that, okay? It's also important to tell you that the current yield curve step and you have a similar -- a smaller impact than previously expected as I told you.

並且透過對沖降低了對較高利率的敏感性，我們對巴西'25年的損益進行了 100% 的對沖。所以你知道這一點非常重要，好嗎？還需要告訴您的是，當前殖利率曲線的變化與您先前預期的類似，影響較小。

And as of December 100 basis points upward move on the selling has an impact of around EUR120 million of NII so we're pretty much hedge. All the structure is basically in place and we believe that on credit quality, even though we remain vigilant over the past few years, he has grown lending slower than peers and we have tightening the underwriting criteria. So the current economic forecasts are for GDP and growth to slow, but we remain positive during the year.

截至 12 月，拋售上漲 100 個基點將對 NII 產生約 1.2 億歐元的影響，因此我們基本上進行了對沖。所有結構基本上都已到位，我們認為，就信貸品質而言，儘管過去幾年我們一直保持警惕，但他的貸款增長速度低於同行，而且我們已經收緊了承保標準。因此，目前的經濟預測是 GDP 和成長將放緩，但我們對今年的經濟前景仍持樂觀態度。

On cost of risk in an adverse case scenario, due to changes in the portfolio, we see the cost of risk to perform marginally weaker than in '24, but really not changing the outlook for the overall cost of the risk. This is actually going back to what Ana was saying. It doesn't impact the rest of the group. It's quite small and it doesn't change overall picture, diversification is the essence in the group.

在不利情況下的風險成本方面，由於投資組合的變化，我們認為風險成本的表現將略低於'24年，但實際上並沒有改變整體風險成本的前景。這實際上又回到了 Ana 所說的話。這不會影響團隊的其他成員。它規模很小，而且不會改變整體情況，多樣化才是集團的本質。

Thanks very much, Hector. Since we're running out of time, can we take the last two questions please. And the next question, please.

非常感謝，赫克托。由於時間不多了，我們可以回答最後兩個問題嗎？請回答下一個問題。

Britt Schmidt, Autonomous.

布里特·施密特，自治。

Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Just to make sure that we interpret the payout guide correctly in timing, I guess is relevant here. You got to a 13% CT1 ratio after 50% ordinary payouts and 60 basis points of regulatory headwinds. And you would consider dropping below that with excess distribution in 2025, but not to go below 12.5% performer.

是的。非常感謝您回答我的問題。只是為了確保我們及時正確地解釋支付指南，我想這與此相關。在支付了 50% 的普通款項以及遭遇了 60 個基點的監管阻力之後，CT1 比率達到了 13%。您可能會考慮在 2025 年透過超額分配將業績降至該水準以下，但不得低於 12.5%。

And then the second question is on Brazil again on the DTA or DTCs rather, why has the ECB now changed its view on this? Has anything been recorded in the Q4 CT1 and what is the maximum remaining risk here in an adverse decision or if the decision is maintained? Thank you.

第二個問題是關於巴西的 DTA 或 DTC，為什麼歐洲央行現在改變了對此的看法？Q4 CT1 中是否記錄了任何內容，如果做出不利決定或維持決定，這裡剩餘的最大風險是什麼？謝謝。

Okay, so let me just be clear, we will not be below 13% this year. Our intention is to operate at 13%, but we are leaving ourselves flexibility depending on the capital hierarchy I described, organic, profitable growth, which were very keen to make sure we take advantage of distributions, making sure that any inorganic which we're not counting on for any of the distributions, everything we're saying is organic growth, organic distributions, et cetera, being more than buybacks, et cetera.

好的，讓我說清楚一點，今年我們的成長率不會低於 13%。我們的目的是以 13% 的速度運營，但我們會根據我所描述的資本層次結構、有機、盈利增長給予自己一定的靈活性，我們非常熱衷於確保我們利用分配，確保任何我們不依賴任何分配的無機資產，我們所說的一切都是有機增長、有機分配等等，不僅僅是回購等等。

So again we are aiming to be at 13% and have some flexibility going forward between the 12% and 13% being always above 12%, which is where we are. In terms of the -- I let Jose answer the one on the DTA's. The reason we're contesting this is because we believe that level playing field and asset which in Brazil is valid, full claim against the government, where other banks operating in the country, US or local banks have a different treatment. We think that, that does not make sense. It's a question of principle the effect is not going to be much up or down. Jose?

因此，我們再次將目標定為 13%，並且在 12% 和 13% 之間有一定的靈活性，但始終高於 12%，這就是我們現在的水平。就——我請 Jose 回答有關 DTA 的問題。我們對此提出異議的原因在於，我們認為公平的競爭環境和資產在巴西是有效的，政府擁有完全的索賠權，而在該國運營的其他銀行、美國或當地銀行則受到不同的待遇。我們認為，這沒有意義。這是原則問題，影響不會太大。何塞？

No. The deduction of Brazilian monetizable DTAs from capital was already taken in the fourth quarter, so if this ruling is, not in favor of basically maintains ECB's interpretation, there will not be impact. There will be no impact on capital.

不。巴西可貨幣化避免雙重課稅協定已於第四季度從資本中扣除，因此，如果該裁決不支持或基本維持歐洲央行的解釋，則不會產生影響。對資本不會產生任何影響。

Thanks very much, Jose, very clear. Can we have the last question, please?

非常感謝，Jose，非常清楚。我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ignacio Cerezo。

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question. I've got two on the asset mobilization efforts. The first one is, if you can give us some detail on the breakdown of those measures, both from a geographical point of view in terms of the loan books basically you're using to accelerate the capital optimization.

大家好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。我對資產調動工作有兩點看法。第一個問題，您能否從地理角度向我們詳細介紹一下這些措施的細分情況，從貸款帳簿的角度，基本上就是您用來加速資本優化的方法。

And the second question is, if you have any internal limits in terms of how much you can do per annum, and if you can see any regulatory constraints in terms of amounts actually you can do at some point in the future. Thank you.

第二個問題是，您是否對每年可以做多少事情有任何內部限制，以及您是否可以看到對您未來某個時間點實際可以做的事情的數量有任何監管限制。謝謝。

Thank you Ignacio. The around a third of what we do is hedges, one third is asset disposals, and a third more or less is SRTs, is a synthetic securitizations. We do this in all geographies, obviously synthetic securitizations is mostly in developed economies in hard currency, but the other strategies we are doing in all geographies.

謝謝你，伊格納西奧。我們所做工作的大約三分之一是對沖，三分之一是資產處置，還有三分之一左右是 SRT，也就是合成證券化。我們在所有地區都這樣做，顯然合成證券化主要以硬通貨形式在已開發經濟體進行，但我們在所有地區都實施其他策略。

As long as we are not the best tenors, the best holders of some of the assets we originate and someone is willing to buy these assets below our cost of capital we will continue mobilizing the assets. Last year the average cost of equity at which we mobilize the assets was around 8% compared with our cost of capital of whatever 14% or 15% of whatever.

只要我們不是最佳期限，不是我們發起的一些資產的最佳持有者，並且有人願意以低於我們的資本成本的價格購買這些資產，我們就會繼續調動這些資產。去年我們調動資產的平均股權成本約為 8%，而我們的資本成本則為 14% 或 15%。

So as long as that's the case, we will continue to mobilize the assets. Now going forward as we optimize the back book, most mobilization will be related to the front book, so you should expect to see a gradual reduction in the total amount because it will be mostly related to front book, not so much as it's been the case so far to the back book.

所以只要情況如此，我們就會繼續調動資產。現在，隨著我們對後台帳簿的優化，大多數動員都將與前台帳簿相關，因此您應該會看到總量逐漸減少，因為它將主要與前台帳簿相關，而不是像到目前為止與後台帳簿相關的那麼多。

Thanks very much, Jose. With that, we are at the end of the Q&A session. I will hand back to Ana to conclude.

非常感謝，何塞。至此，問答環節結束。我將把結論交還給 Ana。

So thank you so much, Raul. Thank you everybody. I just want to reiterate we're only scratching the surface of our potential as a group. We believe 2025 will be more challenging, will be volatile. We're preparing for things to be exciting, even rocky maybe at times this year. And we are very confident that our strategy is working that our model is going to mean that we're going to do better than peers this year and what -- again, we know it's not going to be an easy year. So thank you again and see you soon.

非常感謝你，勞爾。謝謝大家。我只是想重申，我們作為一個團體的潛力才剛開始發揮。我們相信 2025 年將更具挑戰性，將會更加動盪。我們正在為今年可能出現的令人興奮、甚至有時艱難的事情做準備。我們非常有信心，我們的策略正在發揮作用，我們的模式意味著我們今年的表現將比同行更好，而且——我們再說一次，這不會是輕鬆的一年。再次感謝您，希望很快能與您見面。

This completes our call. We look forward to catching up with all of you in our usual roadshows, and we will reach out to anybody who didn't answer and managed to get ask a question, separately offline as well. Thanks very much.

我們的通話至此完成。我們期待在通常的路演中與大家見面，並且我們將聯繫任何沒有回答並設法提出問題的人，包括線下單獨提問。非常感謝。