Banco Santander SA (SAN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, all, and welcome to the Santander Q1 2025 results call.

    大家早安,歡迎參加桑坦德銀行 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • We have entered the last year of our strategic cycle well ahead of our plan. Focused on disciplined capital allocation, which is further improving our profitability to 15.8% post AT1s and our CET1 ratio to 12.9% with 87% of RWA generating returns above our cost of equity.

    我們已經提前進入戰略週期的最後一年。專注於嚴格的資本配置,這進一步提高了我們的獲利能力,在 AT1 之後達到 15.8%,CET1 比率達到 12.9%,其中 87% 的風險加權資產產生的回報高於我們的股權成本。

  • Given our solid progress building capital, our diversified earnings and improving profitability will reiterate our target to distribute up to EUR10 billion to our shareholders through share buybacks for '25/'26 subject to regulatory approvals.

    鑑於我們在資本建設方面的穩定進展、我們多元化的收益和不斷提高的盈利能力,我們將重申我們的目標,即在獲得監管部門批准後,透過 25/26 年股票回購向股東分配高達 100 億歐元的資金。

  • Remember that we no longer set a maximum price for our buybacks reflecting our confidence on the group's potential in terms of profitability and value creation. Q1 was another record quarter for Santander, demonstrating the strength of our strategy and the resilience of our business model. Profit reached a new record of EUR3.4 billion, 19% higher than Q1 '24 with all of our businesses growing.

    請記住,我們不再為回購設定最高價格,這反映了我們對集團獲利能力和價值創造潛力的信心。第一季是桑坦德銀行又一個創紀錄的季度,證明了我們策略的實力和商業模式的彈性。利潤創下 34 億歐元的新紀錄,比 2024 年第一季高出 19%,我們所有業務都成長。

  • On the back of our solid franchise of 175 million customers that continues to grow as we improve our customer experience leveraging our global platforms. We achieved this as we continue to invest for the future through ONE Transformation and making excellent progress towards a simpler and more integrated model. This has helped us to improve our efficiency by around 1 point and increase our RoTE post-AT1 by almost 2 points to 15.8%.

    我們擁有 1.75 億客戶,隨著我們利用全球平台改善客戶體驗,這群客戶群仍在持續成長。我們之所以能實現這一目標,是因為我們透過「一個轉型」持續投資未來,並在建立更簡單、更整合的模型方面取得了顯著進展。這幫助我們將效率提高了約 1 個百分點,並將 AT1 後的 RoTE 提高了近 2 個百分點,達到 15.8%。

  • Our balance sheet remains solid with a strong CET1 capital ratio, which ended the quarter with another all time high of 12.9% towards a top end of our 12% to 13% operating range. All this contributed to the strong shareholder value creation with TNAV plus dividend per share growing 14.5% despite the depreciation of some currencies across our footprint.

    我們的資產負債表依然穩健,CET1 資本比率強勁,本季末再創歷史新高,達到 12.9%,接近我們 12% 至 13% 的營運範圍上限。所有這些都促進了強勁的股東價值創造,儘管我們業務範圍內的一些貨幣貶值,但每股 TNAV 加股息仍增長了 14.5%。

  • Going into more detail in our income statement, our P&L remained very solid. Number one, we delivered strong top line growth, with revenue up 5% in constant euros, supported by NII, which increased 4%, excluding Argentina, which, as Jose will explain later, is causing some distortions and also by record fees, up almost double digits, supported by significant growth of our 9 million customers, and the network benefits that we are capturing through our global businesses.

    詳細查看我們的損益表,我們的損益表仍然非常穩健。首先,我們實現了強勁的營收成長,以歐元計算,收入成長了 5%,這得益於國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 成長了 4%(不包括阿根廷,正如 Jose 稍後將解釋的那樣,阿根廷造成了一些扭曲),也得益於創紀錄的費用增長了近兩位數,這得益於我們 900 萬客戶的優勢增長,以及我們通過全球的優勢和網絡增長,這得益於我們 900 萬客戶的優勢增長,以及我們通過全球的優勢和網絡增長,這得益於我們 900 萬客戶的優勢增長,以及我們通過全球的優勢和網絡。

  • Number two, expenses grew below revenue and inflation, showcasing the positive effects from our transformation. We reiterate our target of lower cost in current euros in '25.

    第二,支出成長低於收入和通貨膨脹,顯示我們轉型帶來的正面影響。我們重申 25 年以當前歐元計算降低成本的目標。

  • Third, we are once again demonstrating the sustainability of our results with 7% growth in net operating income.

    第三,淨營業收入成長7%,再次證明了業績的可持續性。

  • Fourth, our prudent approach to risk is also evident in our robust credit quality trends with cost of risk that is consistently improving quarter-after-quarter.

    第四,我們審慎的風險處理方式也反映在我們強勁的信貸品質趨勢上,風險成本逐季持續改善。

  • Fifth, finally, we have the impact from the different treatment of the Spanish banking tax that this year, we're accruing quarterly through taxes. Even excluding this favorable impact, profit rose double digits year-on-year. All-in-all, as we have shown over time, our results are sustainable and less volatile than peers. This is because we are mainly a retail consumer bank with a business model that combines businesses and geographical diversification with a prudent approach to risk.

    第五,最後,我們受到西班牙銀行稅不同待遇的影響,今年我們按季度透過稅收進行累積。即使剔除此有利影響,利潤仍同比仍實現兩位數成長。總而言之,正如我們長期以來所表明的那樣,我們的業績是可持續的,而且比同行波動性更小。這是因為我們主要是一家零售消費銀行,其商業模式是將業務和地理多樣化與審慎的風險處理方式結合。

  • We are ahead of our plan in executing our transformation, which continues to boost our operational leverage, structurally improving both revenue and cost performances. Simplifying and automating processes and our active spread management have already contributed 253 basis points of efficiencies since we started, surpassing the levels which we expected to reach by the end of '25.

    我們在執行轉型計劃方面處於領先地位,這將繼續提高我們的營運槓桿,從結構上改善收入和成本績效。自我們開始以來,簡化和自動化流程以及積極的利差管理已經貢獻了 253 個基點的效率,超過了我們預計在 25 年底達到的水平。

  • Our proprietary and global tech capabilities have generated 79 basis points in efficiencies so far. As we said last quarter, there is still more upside over the medium term for our strategy for both revenue and cost. Retail and consumers, which represent more than 70% of our revenue have significant upside as we progress on the implementation of our common platforms.

    到目前為止,我們的專有和全球技術能力已產生 79 個基點的效率。正如我們上個季度所說,從中期來看,我們的收入和成本策略仍有更大的上升空間。零售和消費者業務占我們總收入的 70% 以上,隨著我們共同平台實施的不斷推進,它們將擁有顯著的成長空間。

  • The rest of our revenue comes from wealth, CIB and payments, which are more fee driven and play to our network strengths. This has delivered 75 basis points of efficiency improvements, which more upside to our original target of 100 to 150 basis points.

    我們其餘的收入來自財富、CIB 和支付,這些業務更由費用驅動,並發揮我們的網路優勢。這帶來了 75 個基點的效率提升,比我們最初設定的 100 至 150 個基點的目標更高。

  • Our common operating model supports value creation as reflected in the strong performance of our businesses with all of them delivering both revenue and profit growth. Retail's performance reflects our scale and the benefits of our transformation, which significantly improved efficiency.

    我們的共同營運模式支持價值創造,這體現在我們業務的強勁表現上,所有業務都實現了收入和利潤成長。零售業的表現反映了我們的規模和轉型帶來的好處,這顯著提高了效率。

  • In CIB, we are building a world-class business, leveraging on our areas of expertise to grow our US franchise without changing the risk profile. Revenue grew 8% to another quarterly record, supported by the good performance in the US and client flows, demonstrating the benefits of our strategy.

    在 CIB,我們正在打造世界一流的業務,利用我們的專業領域在不改變風險狀況的情況下擴大我們的美國特許經營權。由於美國市場的良好表現和客戶流量,公司營收成長 8%,再創季度新高,證明了我們策略的優勢。

  • Wealth continued to grow strongly, improving in both efficiency and profitability. And in payments, we are seeing good activity trends as reflected in double-digit revenue growth, both in PagoNxt and Cards. The combination of our global businesses and our geographical diversification puts us in a unique position to face the challenges for '25.

    財富持續強勁成長,效率和獲利能力均有所提高。在支付方面,我們看到了良好的活動趨勢,這反映在 PagoNxt 和 Cards 的兩位數收入成長。我們的全球業務和地理多樣化相結合,使我們處於獨特的地位來應對25年的挑戰。

  • Higher interest rates benefit some of our retail franchises, while other parts of our business, such as CIB, consumer and some emerging markets performed better with lower rates. It is this diversification that allows us to deliver recurrent strong results, consistent profitable growth and value creation even under very different environments. Overall, the great start of the year, the execution of our strategy and our diversification puts us on track to achieve our profitability targets for full year '25.

    較高的利率使我們的一些零售特許經營業務受益,而我們的其他業務部分,如CIB、消費者和一些新興市場,在較低的利率下表現更好。正是這種多樣化使我們能夠即使在截然不同的環境下也能持續實現強勁業績、持續獲利成長和價值創造。總體而言,今年的良好開局、我們策略的執行和多元化使我們有望實現 25 年全年的獲利目標。

  • In Retail, which is at the heart of our banking business, we are progressing in our aim to become the number one bank for our customers. As we progress in the simplification, process automation and customer experience, we gain their principality.

    零售業務是我們銀行業務的核心,我們正朝著成為客戶首選銀行的目標邁進。隨著我們在簡化、流程自動化和客戶體驗方面取得的進步,我們獲得了他們的青睞。

  • Today, we have 3.5 million more active customers than a year ago. We have reduced the numbers of products by 40% in the last year and 51% since we started the process back in '23 with a special focus on the front book. As we deepen simplification, our digital sales and our cost to serve improves. Today, our digital sales are 23% higher than last year, and our cost to serve has dropped by 5%.

    今天,我們的活躍客戶比一年前增加了 350 萬人。去年,我們的產品數量減少了 40%,自 2023 年開始這項流程以來,產品數量減少了 51%,特別關注封面書。隨著我們進一步簡化,我們的數位銷售和服務成本得到了改善。今天,我們的數位銷售額比去年高出 23%,而服務成本下降了 5%。

  • The implementation of our global platform progresses at pace. We have completed the integration of Gravity in Chile, which improves the digital channel performance, reducing the response time and significantly enhances the overall customer experience.

    我們的全球平台實施工作正在快速推進。我們已完成與智利 Gravity 的整合,這提高了數位管道的效能,縮短了回應時間,並顯著提升了整體客戶體驗。

  • As a result, retail profit grew strongly year-on-year, driven by solid revenue, both NII and fees across most of our countries with cost improving, reflecting our transformation efforts. Going forward, we expect that our global platform rollout and improvements in the consumer and customer experience will drive additional customer growth and lower cost in euros.

    因此,零售利潤較去年同期強勁成長,這得益於我們大多數國家的穩健收入、NII 和費用以及成本的改善,反映了我們的轉型努力。展望未來,我們預計,我們的全球平台的推出以及消費者和客戶體驗的改善將推動更多的客戶成長並降低歐元成本。

  • In consumer, we continue to advance in our priority to become the preferred choice of our partners and customers by delivering the best solutions and increasing our cost competitive advantage across all of our footprint.

    在消費者領域,我們持續致力於成為合作夥伴和客戶的首選,提供最佳解決方案,並提高我們在整個業務範圍內的成本競爭優勢。

  • First, we are converging towards global platforms. This quarter, we launched Openbank in Mexico with a full value proposition and we opened a branch in Germany. In the US, we have announced a multiyear partnership with Verizon offering their customers saving accounts. These initiatives are part of our focus on deposit gathering to lower funding costs as reflected in our deposit increase of 12% year-on-year, while we continue to improve our customer experience.

    首先,我們正向全球平台靠攏。本季度,我們在墨西哥推出了具有完整價值主張的 Openbank,並在德國開設了分行。在美國,我們宣布與 Verizon 建立多年合作夥伴關係,為他們的客戶提供儲蓄帳戶。這些措施是我們專注於吸收存款以降低融資成本的一部分,這反映在我們的存款年增 12% 上,同時我們持續改善客戶體驗。

  • Second, we are working to grow and consolidate partnerships, offering global and best-in-class solutions integrated into our partners' processes. Senior continued processing and progressing with strong partnerships. For example, we launched the Amazon co-branded card in Austria.

    其次,我們正在努力發展和鞏固合作關係,提供融入合作夥伴流程的全球性和一流的解決方案。高階管理層透過強有力的合作夥伴關係繼續處理並取得進展。例如,我們在奧地利推出了亞馬遜聯名卡。

  • Finally, we are promoting the network effect, aligning the businesses with the group's operating model and becoming more agile through the simplification and automation of processes.

    最後,我們正在促進網路效應,使業務與集團的營運模式保持一致,並透過流程的簡化和自動化變得更加敏捷。

  • Profit grew 6% in consumer on the back of NII growth and LLP improvements, mainly in the US Cross grew in line with inflation even after our efforts on transformation, which are supporting double-digit customer deposit growth.

    由於 NII 的成長和 LLP 的改善,消費者業務利潤成長了 6%,主要在美國,即使在我們努力轉型之後,Cross 的成長仍與通貨膨脹保持一致,這支持了兩位數的客戶存款成長。

  • During the year, we expect NII to improve as interest rates continue to decline as we execute our strategy to lower funding cost and originate at attractive profitability levels. In CIB, we are building a world-class business to better serve our corporate and institutional clients across our footprint, while maintaining the same low-risk profile.

    今年,我們預計,隨著我們實施降低融資成本和以具有吸引力的獲利水準發起的策略,利率將繼續下降,因此 NII 將會改善。在 CIB,我們正在打造世界一流的業務,以便更好地服務我們業務範圍內的企業和機構客戶,同時保持相同的低風險狀況。

  • Number one, we're deepening our client relationships by expanding our advisory capabilities in the US, building on our areas of expertise to accelerate growth across the group. Revenue in CIB in the US rose 23% year-on-year and is expected to boost cross-border revenue across the group as we originate businesses from the US for the rest of the group and vice versa.

    首先,我們正在透過擴大我們在美國的諮詢能力來深化我們的客戶關係,並利用我們的專業領域來加速整個集團的成長。美國 CIB 的營收年增 23%,預計這將推動整個集團的跨國收入成長,因為我們為集團其他部分開展來自美國的業務,反之亦然。

  • Second, we are strengthening our position in our core markets, leveraging our centers of expertise. A good example of this is a record quarter in Global Markets with revenue up 23% on the back of the investments we made and cross-selling opportunities with global transactional banking and Global Banking.

    其次,我們正在利用我們的專業中心來加強我們在核心市場的地位。一個很好的例子就是全球市場創紀錄的季度,由於我們的投資以及與全球交易銀行和全球銀行的交叉銷售機會,收入成長了 23%。

  • Third, fostering collaboration with other businesses is also key. CIB provides FX solutions to retail, product development and structuring to wealth and a full suite of products, including capital markets and advisory to commercial and auto. CIB had solid results with revenue up 8% to a new record high with fees growing at double digits. All this, while we maintain an efficiency ratio that is among the best in the sector and an RoTE of around 22%, reflecting our focus on profitability and capital discipline.

    第三,促進與其他企業的合作也很重要。CIB 為零售業提供外匯解決方案,為財富業提供產品開發和結構設計,並提供全套產品,包括資本市場和商業及汽車諮詢。CIB 業績穩健,營收成長 8%,創歷史新高,費用成長率達兩位數。同時,我們保持了業界最佳的效率比率和約 22% 的 RoTE,這反映了我們對獲利能力和資本紀律的關注。

  • In Wealth, we are building the best wealth and insurance manager in Europe and the Americas. First, in private banking, we remain focused on expanding our fee business by promoting value-added solutions, leveraging our best-in-class portfolio advisory capabilities. We have created a new global family office team, and we have expanded our ultra-high net worth global team, offering world-class specialized wealth management services.

    在財富方面,我們正在打造歐洲和美洲最好的財富和保險管理公司。首先,在私人銀行業務方面,我們繼續專注於透過推廣加值解決方案、利用我們一流的投資組合諮詢能力來擴大我們的收費業務。我們創建了新的全球家族辦公室團隊,並擴大了超高淨值全球團隊,提供世界一流的專業財富管理服務。

  • Second, in asset management, we progressed in the implementation of an advisory model for retail customers across countries, supported by a global investment platform that offers enhanced customer experience.

    二是在資產管理方面,我們推動了面向各國零售客戶的顧問模式建設,並建構了全球化投資平台,提升了客戶體驗。

  • Third, in insurance, we are developing new business lines such as retirement, which we are offering an integrated value proposition while we expand high-growth verticals such as health and motor.

    第三,在保險方面,我們正在開發退休等新業務線,在擴大健康和汽車等高成長垂直領域的同時,我們也提供綜合的價值主張。

  • Fourth, in collaboration with other businesses is of the essence in wealth, and it is a major driver for growth. Collaboration fees increased by 10% year-on-year.

    第四,與其他企業的合作是財富的本質,也是成長的主要動力。合作費用較去年同期成長10%。

  • In summary, all this supports growth and high profitability levels. Profit rose double digits on the back of strong activity and double-digit fee growth across all the three businesses. Efficiency ratio improved close to 1.5 points year-on-year and RoTE stands at close to 70%.

    總而言之,所有這些都支持增長和高盈利水平。得益於三項業務的強勁活動和兩位數的費用成長,利潤實現了兩位數的成長。效率比年增近1.5個百分點,RoTE接近70%。

  • Finally, payments, where we have a unique position on both sides of the value chain. In merchant acquiring, we are one of the largest acquirers in Latin America is Spain and Portugal with the right balance between growth and profitability.

    最後,在支付領域,我們在價值鏈的兩端都佔有獨特的地位。在商家收單方面,我們是拉丁美洲、西班牙和葡萄牙最大的收單機構之一,在成長和獲利之間實現了適當的平衡。

  • Getnet total payments volume kept growing strongly, which is helping us to consolidate our presence in our core markets. At the same time, we remain focused on globalizing products and technology.

    Getnet 總支付量維持強勁成長,這有助於我們鞏固在核心市場的地位。同時,我們仍然專注於產品和技術的全球化。

  • PagoNxt Payments is leveraging the best technology to build its own proprietary solution to deliver account-to-account payments processing, foreign exchange, fraud detection, and value-added services. Our payments hub platform processed triple the volume compared with the same period last year.

    PagoNxt Payments 正在利用最佳技術建立自己的專有解決方案,以提供帳戶到帳戶的支付處理、外匯、詐欺偵測和增值服務。我們的支付中心平台處理的交易量是去年同期的三倍。

  • In cards, where we are one of the largest issuers globally with 106 million active cards, we continue to deploy Plard, our global cards platform. In Brazil, we currently manage more than 16 million debit cards through Plard. In Chile, we started issuing debit cards for new customers. And in Mexico, we already authorized more than 160 million transactions per month. Payment delivered a strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth year-on-year, both in cards and PagoNxt, and cost is under control, which drove 30% profit growth.

    在卡片領域,我們是全球最大的發卡機構之一,擁有 1.06 億張活躍卡,我們將繼續部署我們的全球卡平台 Plard。在巴西,我們目前透過Plard管理超過1,600萬張金融卡。在智利,我們開始向新客戶發行簽帳卡。在墨西哥,我們每月已授權超過 1.6 億筆交易。支付業務本季表現強勁,無論是信用卡還是 PagoNxt,營收都比去年同期實現了兩位數增長,且成本得到控制,推動利潤增長了 30%。

  • Finally, PagoNxt EBITDA margin improved to around 29%, backed by Getnet with one of the best ratios among our competitors. We expect cost efficiency and CapEx optimization to continue to drive profitability in the coming quarters. Our strong operational and financial performance is improving profitability and driving double-digit value creation for the eighth consecutive quarter.

    最後,在 Getnet 的支持下,PagoNxt 的 EBITDA 利潤率提高至約 29%,其比率在競爭對手中名列前茅。我們預計成本效率和資本支出優化將在未來幾季繼續推動獲利能力。我們強勁的營運和財務表現正在提高獲利能力,並連續第八個季度推動兩位數的價值創造。

  • RoTE post-AT1 was 15.8%, up close to 2 points year-on-year, reflecting the high levels of new business profitability. Earnings per share rose to above EUR 0.21, supported by strong profit generation and a lower number of shares following the ongoing buyback programs. As a result, we continue to grow our value creation, which in terms of TNAV plus cash DPS increased 14.5%, reflecting our disciplined capital allocation and again, the impact of our share buybacks.

    AT1之後的RoTE為15.8%,較去年同期上升近2個百分點,反映出新業務獲利能力處於高水準。受強勁的利潤增長和持續的回購計劃導致的股票數量減少的推動,每股收益升至 0.21 歐元以上。因此,我們繼續增加我們的價值創造,以 TNAV 加現金 DPS 計算增加了 14.5%,這反映了我們嚴格的資本配置以及我們股票回購的影響。

  • Buybacks remain one of the most effective ways to generate shareholder value. Since '21 and including in full the share buyback that is currently underway, we will have bought back 14% of our outstanding shares, providing a return on investment -- (technical difficulty)

    回購仍然是創造股東價值最有效的方式之一。自 21 年以來,包括目前正在進行的股票回購,我們將回購 14% 的流通股,從而提供投資回報--(技術難度)

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • We are yet again reporting record results as our transformation continues to drive operational leverage. We had a strong top line performance with sound underlying trends as revenue grew 5% and reached a new record high for the fourth quarter in a row with good performance in costs towards our objective for 2025.

    隨著我們的轉型繼續推動營運槓桿,我們再次報告創紀錄的業績。我們的營收表現強勁,基本趨勢良好,營收成長 5%,連續第四個季度創下新高,成本表現良好,朝著 2025 年的目標邁進。

  • As you can see, Argentina introduces some distortions between different lines of the P&L, which are fully compensated in total revenue. In local currency, net interest income is affected by a sharp decrease in interest rates for around EUR600 million year-on-year. And in other income, there is a benefit from lower hyperinflation adjustment for a similar amount. Cost of risk remained fairly stable in the quarter, supported by robust labor markets and prudent risk management.

    如您所見,阿根廷在損益表的不同項目之間引入了一些扭曲,但這些扭曲在總收入中得到了完全補償。以當地貨幣計算,淨利息收入受到利率大幅下降的影響,較去年同期減少約 6 億歐元。而對於其他收入而言,較低的惡性通貨膨脹調整也會帶來類似金額的效益。在強勁的勞動力市場和審慎的風險管理的支持下,本季風險成本保持相當穩定。

  • Last year, we charged the temporary levy on revenue earned in Spain in full in the first quarter through other results. This year, it is charged in the tax line on an accrual basis. This is the main reason that explains the significant jump in other results line. Even if we exclude this impact and calculate year-on-year growth on a like-for-like basis, profit grew double digits, not only at the group level, but also in almost all the global businesses.

    去年,我們在第一季透過其他業績全額扣除了在西班牙賺取的收入的臨時稅。今年則以應計制在稅額中提列。這是解釋其他結果線大幅躍升的主要原因。即使我們排除這一影響並以同比基礎計算同比增長,利潤仍實現了兩位數增長,不僅在集團層面,而且在幾乎所有全球業務中都是如此。

  • Finally, on the right-hand side of the slide, you can see the upward trend in profit, which grew 4% this quarter on the back of positive customer activity, lower cost, and better provisions. Please also remember that the last quarter, we had a full positive impact from the FX accounting of the Argentine peso. This also produces some distortions quarter-on-quarter that I will comment on during the presentation only where relevant.

    最後,在投影片的右側,您可以看到利潤的上升趨勢,在積極的客戶活動、更低的成本和更好的撥備的推動下,本季利潤增加了 4%。還要記住,上個季度,我們從阿根廷比索的外匯核算中獲得了完全積極的影響。這也會產生一些季度環比扭曲,我將在演示過程中僅在相關部分對此進行評論。

  • Total revenue increased 5%, which puts us on track to meet the target for the year we provided last quarter. This was underpinned by growth in customer activity across businesses and reflects the benefits of our model. All of our global businesses contributed to revenue growth, which was mainly supported by another record quarter in CIB, up 8%, driven especially by Global Markets and our growth initiatives in the US

    總收入成長了 5%,這使我們有望實現上個季度設定的年度目標。這是由各企業客戶活動的成長所支撐的,並反映了我們模式的優勢。我們所有的全球業務都為收入成長做出了貢獻,其中主要得益於 CIB 業務再創紀錄的季度增長 8%,這主要得益於全球市場和我們在美國的增長計劃

  • We grew 14% in Wealth with record assets under management and strong commercial trends. Payments was up 15% with double-digit growth in net interest income and fees, both in PagoNxt and Cards on the back of higher activity. Retail and Consumer also showed very good figures. In Retail, particularly due to a strong net fee income across most countries and in consumer on the back of net interest income growth, mainly in the US

    我們的財富成長了 14%,管理資產規模創歷史新高,商業趨勢強勁。由於活動增加,PagoNxt 和信用卡的支付金額增加了 15%,淨利息收入和費用均實現了兩位數成長。零售和消費品行業也表現出了非常好的數據。零售業務方面,尤其得益於大多數國家強勁的淨費用收入,而消費者業務方面,則得益於淨利息收入的成長,主要是在美國

  • Group's NII increased 4% year-on-year, excluding Argentina, even in a less favorable interest rate environment. More than 80% of group's net interest income comes from Retail and Consumer businesses, and the positive evolution was supported by our active assets and liability pricing management in Retail, most evident in the UK and Mexico. And Consumer, both in Europe and in the US. It was also supported by continued profitable growth across most businesses and countries, mainly consumer.

    即使在利率環境不太有利的情況下,集團的NII(不包括阿根廷)仍較去年同期成長4%。集團淨利息收入的 80% 以上來自零售和消費者業務,這一積極變化得益於我們在零售領域積極的資產和負債定價管理,尤其是在英國和墨西哥。以及歐洲和美國的消費者。這也得益於大多數企業和國家(主要是消費者)持續的獲利成長。

  • And finally, also by our focus on adapting the sensitivity of our balance sheet to the new cycle of interest rates. A good example of this is retail NII, which increased across most countries and remained flat in Spain and Brazil in the context of unfavorable interest rates.

    最後,我們也著重調整資產負債表對新利率週期的敏感度。一個很好的例子就是零售NII,在大多數國家,零售NII都有增加,但在西班牙和巴西,由於利率不利,零售NII保持穩定。

  • Net interest income was resilient also quarter-on-quarter, flat when we exclude Argentina for similar reasons, which also explains the performance of net interest margin, which fell only 7 basis points year-on-year without Argentina and was flat in the quarter. This performance is slightly better than our guidance of NII going slightly up in 2025 in constant euros, excluding Argentina and slightly down in current euros. However, as forward rate curves remain very volatile in all jurisdictions, we reiterate our guidance for the year at this stage.

    淨利息收入環比表現強勁,當出於類似原因排除阿根廷時,淨利息收入持平,這也解釋了淨息差的表現,如果不計阿根廷,淨息差同比僅下降 7 個基點,本季度持平。這一表現略好於我們對 2025 年 NII 的預測,即以不變歐元計算(不包括阿根廷),NII 將略有上升,以當前歐元計算,NII 將略有下降。然而,由於所有司法管轄區的遠期利率曲線仍然非常不穩定,我們在此階段重申對今年的指導。

  • We generated another record period of net fee income, reflecting our transformation efforts to promote connectivity across the group, deploy high value-added products and services, and provide the best customer experience. Net fee income grew close to double digits on the back of a strong activity in general, consumer growth and in a change in mix with a higher share of more value-added services.

    我們再次創造了創紀錄的淨費用收入,這反映了我們為促進整個集團的連結性、部署高附加價值產品和服務以及提供最佳客戶體驗而做出的轉型努力。受整體活動強勁、消費者成長以及增值服務佔比增加等因素的影響,淨費用收入成長接近兩位數。

  • Retail showed good performance across the footprint. CIB grew even further up from record levels last year as we continue executing our growth initiatives, particularly in Global Banking in the US and GTB globally. We had a 16% increase in Wealth with a strong growth in all business lines, backed by record assets under management. We had double-digit growth in payments, both in PagoNxt and Cards, supported by high activity levels as Getnet's total payments volume increased 14% and Cards spending rose 7% year-on-year.

    零售業在整個行業中表現良好。隨著我們繼續實施成長計劃,特別是在美國的全球銀行業務和全球 GTB 業務,CIB 的成長速度比去年創紀錄的水平更高。我們的財富成長了 16%,所有業務線都實現了強勁成長,這得益於創紀錄的資產管理規模。在高活動水準的支持下,我們的 PagoNxt 和信用卡支付均實現了兩位數增長,Getnet 的總支付量同比增長了 14%,信用卡支出同比增長了 7%。

  • As we guided in last quarter results presentation, this year, consumer is affected by the impact of a new insurance regulation in Germany, which has been offset by strong fee growth in DCB US As sector elaborated, One Transformation is key to understanding why we can continue to get better in every single market, leveraging our global businesses.

    正如我們在上一季的業績報告中指出的那樣,今年,消費者受到了德國新保險法規的影響,但這一影響被 DCB 美國部門的強勁費用成長所抵消。正如該部門所闡述的,一次轉型是理解為什麼我們能夠利用我們的全球業務,在每個市場中繼續做得更好的關鍵。

  • As a result, we expect sustainable improvements in operational leverage as we further implement the structural changes to our model. These improvements are already very evident as demonstrated by the trends in our efficiency ratio, which is consistently getting better quarter-after-quarter and remains one of the best in the sector, but more importantly, by the evolution of cost in absolute terms.

    因此,隨著我們進一步實施模型的結構性變化,我們預期營運槓桿將持續改善。這些改進已經非常明顯,從我們的效率比率趨勢可以看出,我們的效率比率每個季度都在不斷提高,並且仍然是業內最好的之一,但更重要的是,從絕對成本的演變可以看出。

  • Retail and Consumer are leading our transformation, which is delivering structural efficiency gains with revenue improving and costs flat. These two businesses represent 70% of our cost base, and we expect them to reflect further the benefits of One Transformation going forward. CIB, Wealth and payments are more fee-driven. Costs grew 6%, showing positive operating jaws with double-digit fee increase, as I have just explained.

    零售和消費品產業正在引領我們的轉型,這帶來了結構性效率提升,收入增加,成本持平。這兩項業務占我們成本基礎的 70%,我們預計它們將進一步體現「一次轉型」帶來的好處。CIB、財富和支付更多由費用驅動。正如我剛才解釋的那樣,成本增長了 6%,費用實現了兩位數的增長,顯示出積極的營運增長。

  • As a result, our efficiency ratio closed at 14.8% in the quarter, amongst the best we have reported in the past 15 years. As Hector said, we reiterate our guidance for lower absolute cost in current euros for 2025. The risk profile of our balance sheet remains low with robust credit quality across our footprint on the back of low employment and easing monetary policies in general.

    結果,本季我們的效率比率達到 14.8%,達到過去 15 年來的最佳水準。正如赫克託所說,我們重申對 2025 年以當前歐元計算的絕對成本較低的指導。在低就業率和整體寬鬆的貨幣政策的推動下,我們的資產負債表的風險狀況仍然較低,且整個業務的信貸品質強勁。

  • Loan loss provisions increased 7% year-on-year, mainly due to our efforts to reduce NPLs and some deterioration in Brazil in the context of higher rates and inflation.

    貸款損失準備金年增 7%,主要原因是我們努力減少不良貸款,以及在利率上升和通貨膨脹的背景下巴西的情況惡化。

  • Credit quality continued to improve year-on-year as reflected both in the P&L ratio, which fell to under 3% and cost of risk, which improved to 1.14% despite proactive management actions, as I just explained. Remember that much of our NPL portfolio has collateral guarantees and provisions that account for more than 80% of total exposure.

    信貸品質較去年同期持續改善,這體現在損益率和風險成本上,儘管採取了積極的管理措施,損益率仍降至 3% 以下,風險成本也改善至 1.14%,正如我剛才解釋的那樣。請記住,我們的大部分不良貸款組合都有抵押擔保和撥備,佔總風險敞口的 80% 以上。

  • Cost of risk dropped year-on-year to 1.14% and was fairly stable in the quarter. Retail and Consumer represent 80% of the group's loan loss provisions. In Retail, it improved year-on-year across all our main countries and was flat in the quarter, with significant improvement in Mexico, compensating the weaker performance in Brazil.

    風險成本較去年同期下降至 1.14%,本季相當穩定。零售和消費佔該集團貸款損失準備金的80%。在零售業,我們所有主要國家的零售業同比均有所改善,本季持平,其中墨西哥的零售業有顯著改善,彌補了巴西的疲軟表現。

  • In Consumer, cost of risk was relatively stable, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with notable improvements in the US, where we are seeing favorable payment rates, higher card prices and an improved labor market year-on-year.

    在消費者領域,風險成本年比和季後均相對穩定,美國的情況明顯改善,我們看到支付率有利、信用卡價格上漲以及勞動市場較去年同期改善。

  • As of today, we are not seeing any significant deterioration in employment rates and our credit quality remains stable. Moreover, it is in periods of higher instability when diversification becomes more important. For instance, in the current context, we benefit from the fact that tariffs do not equally affect all countries and Brazil is a good example of it.

    截至今天,我們沒有看到就業率出現任何明顯惡化,我們的信貸品質保持穩定。此外,在更加不穩定的時期,多樣化變得更加重要。例如,在當前情況下,我們受益於關稅對所有國家的影響並不是平等的,巴西就是一個很好的例子。

  • Nevertheless, it is too early to make conclusions regarding the new geopolitical environment. But as long as labor markets are not significantly affected, we wouldn't expect material impacts to our cost of risk target.

    然而,對於新的地緣政治環境下結論還為時過早。但只要勞動市場沒有受到重大影響,我們就不會預期風險成本目標會受到重大影響。

  • Moving on to capital. As you know, we have been working on improving our capital productivity and accelerating our capital generation for some time. This quarter, we delivered exceptional growth again, generating 10 basis points to 12.9% at the top end of the operating range we disclosed during last results presentation and already very close to our 13% guidance for 2025. We generated 33 basis points of net organic capital after having absorbed 24 basis points of profitable risk-weighted asset growth, while we had a positive impact from securities portfolios and DTAs.

    轉向資本。如您所知,我們一直致力於提高資本生產力並加速資本產生。本季度,我們再次實現了卓越的成長,在上次業績報告中揭露的營運範圍上限上成長了 10 個基點,達到 12.9%,並且已經非常接近我們對 2025 年 13% 的預期。在吸收了 24 個基點的獲利性風險加權資產成長後,我們產生了 33 個基點的淨有機資本,同時我們也受到了證券投資組合和 DTA 的正面影響。

  • These enable us to compensate shareholder remuneration accrual, some regulatory charges as well as to accumulate capital. As we have already mentioned in the past, there was no impact from Basel III implementation on day 1. We continue to deploy capital to the most -- (technical difficulty)

    這些使我們能夠補償股東薪酬累積、一些監管費用以及累積資本。正如我們過去提到的,巴塞爾協議 III 實施第一天並沒有產生影響。我們繼續將資本投入最--(技術難度)

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Track to achieve our '25 targets, targets that we reiterate. Good business dynamics supported by revenue increase backed by all our businesses with fees growing high single digits at the same time that will reduce the cost in euro terms. Cost of risk improved and it's also in line with our target of around 1.15% at the end of the year. We increased the CET1 ratio by 10 basis points as we profitably grew our business organically, accrued shareholder distribution and absorbed some regulatory impacts.

    追蹤實現我們的『25』目標,我們重申這些目標。良好的業務動態受到所有業務收入成長的支持,同時費用也以個位數高位成長,這將降低以歐元計算的成本。風險成本有所改善,也符合我們年底約 1.15% 的目標。隨著我們業務的有機獲利成長、股東分配的累積以及監管影響的吸收,我們將 CET1 比率提高了 10 個基點。

  • In a Q1 that is normally lower, affected by day count and seasonality in Consumer and South America, our RoTE grew year-on-year to 15.8% on track to reach our target of around 16.5% in '25.

    在通常較低的第一季度,受到消費者和南美的營業天數和季節性因素的影響,我們的 RoTE 年成長至 15.8%,預計在 25 年達到 16.5% 左右的目標。

  • In summary, very positive trends, which we expect to consolidate in the coming quarters even in an environment of high uncertainty. As Jose has mentioned, it is precisely in periods of hiring instability when our diversification becomes more evident, acting as a stabilizer. This is key and represents one of our competitive advantages that differentiates us from some others.

    總而言之,即使在高度不確定的環境中,我們也預計未來幾季的趨勢將得到鞏固。正如 Jose 所提到的,正是在招募不穩定時期,我們的多樣化變得更加明顯,起到了穩定器的作用。這是關鍵,也是我們有別於其他公司的競爭優勢之一。

  • And now we are happy to take your questions.

    現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Hector. Operator, could we have the first question, please?

    謝謝,赫克托。接線員,我們可以問第一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Sofie Peterzens, JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示)摩根大通的 Sofie Peterzens。

  • Sofie Peterzens - Analyst

    Sofie Peterzens - Analyst

  • So my first question would be on net interest income. How should we think about net interest income going forward? We have seen quite a lot of changes in rate expectations across your core markets. So if you could talk about the NII outlook going forward?

    所以我的第一個問題是關於淨利息收入。我們該如何看待未來的淨利息收入?我們看到核心市場的利率預期發生了很大變化。那麼,您能談談 NII 的未來前景嗎?

  • And my second question would be, if you could just discuss how you kind of think about any M&A and asset disposal opportunities? Are there any businesses where you would like to grow a little bit more inorganically? And equally, how do you think about kind of your business areas? Anything that you would want to reduce your exposure to? Clearly, we have seen headlines around Poland, but anything you could kind of say around asset disposals and M&A? Thank you.

    我的第二個問題是,您能否討論一下您對併購和資產處置機會的看法?您是否希望某些業務能夠以更無機的方式成長?同樣,您如何看待您的業務領域?您想減少接觸什麼嗎?顯然,我們已經看到了有關波蘭的頭條新聞,但您能否談談有關資產處置和併購方面的問題?謝謝。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Okay, Sofie. Good morning. First of all, I think it's important to say that we believe that we will continue in that regard. Excluding Argentina, we reiterate the NII. We believe this is going to be slightly up in constant euros and slightly down in year-to-year -- year-on-year current euros. We're assuming end rates at around 1.5% by the end of '25. The current outlook is around 1.69%. So I believe we are able to get it. It's important to acknowledge that the ALCO portfolio has grown to EUR152 billion in the whole group. That's around EUR7.5 billion more quarter-on-quarter.

    好的,索菲。早安.首先,我認為有必要說,我們相信我們將繼續在這方面努力。除阿根廷外,我們重申國家資訊基礎結構。我們認為,以不變歐元計算,這一數字將略有上升,以同比計算(按當前歐元計算),這一數字將略有下降。我們假設到 25 年底最終利率將達到 1.5% 左右。目前預期約為 1.69%。所以我相信我們能夠實現它。值得注意的是,ALCO 集團的投資組合已成長至 1,520 億歐元。這比上一季增加了約 75 億歐元。

  • Most of the group sensitivity to rates is concentrated on Retail, 60% of the loan book, but we have drivers that offset each other. So in that regard, I believe that we have a control over it. It's important to understand, as you know very well, that Europe has positive sensitivity to higher rates, retail Spain, Portugal, and Poland. UK Retail NII is positive even with the decline of the NIM. Thanks to the hedging strategy that we have performed in that country.

    集團對利率的敏感度主要集中在零售領域,佔貸款總額的 60%,但我們的驅動因素是相互抵銷的。因此從這個方面來說,我相信我們能夠控制它。重要的是要理解,正如你們所知,歐洲對更高的利率有著積極的敏感性,例如西班牙、葡萄牙和波蘭。儘管淨利息收益率 (NIM) 有所下降,但英國零售業 NII 仍為正值。這要歸功於我們在該國實施的對沖策略。

  • And in Brazil, we are very well positioned to lower rates. Outlook is improving for '25. We expected a peak of around 16%. Now it's around 15% and our sensitivity remains at 100 basis points, that's EUR120 million. So we continue to proactively manage, and we believe that we're going to deliver what we have said.

    在巴西,我們完全有能力降低利率。25 年的前景正在改善。我們預計峰值約為 16%。現在約為 15%,我們的敏感度仍為 100 個基點,即 1.2 億歐元。因此,我們將繼續積極管理,並相信我們將兌現我們的承諾。

  • In that regard, in terms of asset disposal, I think I'm going to be very clear about it since the beginning for you, okay? I know we acknowledge a recent speculation about regarding a potential transaction involving Santander's Polska. I can tell you that this is a great bank, has a great 22% RoTE, and we have interest from several parties, and we are currently in discussions with Erste for the potential sale of the 49% stake.

    在這方面,在資產處置方面,我想我從一開始就會對您講得很清楚,好嗎?我知道我們承認最近有關於涉及桑坦德銀行波蘭分行的潛在交易的猜測。我可以告訴你們,這是一家很棒的銀行,擁有高達 22% 的 RoTE,並且有多方對我們感興趣,目前我們正在與 Erste 討論出售 49% 股份的可能性。

  • At this point, I must say there is no certainty that the discussions will lead to an agreement with them. And in any event, completion of any transaction will be subject to closing conditions and different things and regulatory approvals, et cetera. So if required, we will make a further announcement.

    目前,我必須說,並不確定這項談判是否會與他們達成協議。無論如何,任何交易的完成都將取決於成交條件、不同事項以及監管部門的批准等。因此,如果需要,我們將發布進一步公告。

  • But at this point, I wouldn't like to discuss any asset disposals or anything like that. And we have a fiduciary duty to review -- (technical difficulty)

    但目前我不想討論任何資產處置或類似的事情。我們有信託責任去審查--(技術難度)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas.

    法國巴黎銀行的 Ignacio Ulargui。

  • Ignacio Ulargui - Analyst

    Ignacio Ulargui - Analyst

  • I have two questions. I mean, the first one is, if you could give us a bit more color on how we think -- should we think about group cost evolution throughout the year. So is this the run rate that we should expect or incremental efficiency should add further decline to the cost line?

    我有兩個問題。我的意思是,第一個問題是,如果您能給我們更多地了解我們的想法——我們是否應該考慮全年的集團成本演變。那麼這是我們應該預期的運行率嗎?或者增量效率應該進一步降低成本線嗎?

  • And the second thing -- the second question is related to DCB Europe. So performance in the quarter has been a bit more difficult than what consensus was going for. How should we think about the performance of the unit in the year? How much is recurrent or would be seen as a one-off in the net profit of 1Q?

    第二件事-第二個問題與 DCB 歐洲有關。因此,本季的表現比普遍預期的要困難一些。我們應該怎樣看待單位全年的業績?一季淨利中經常性或一次性項目佔比是多少?

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • In terms of cost, it's very important to understand what we're doing. Cost is a result of the strategy we have and the change of the model that we are executing right now, okay? It's important to tell you that we reiterate our guidance to deliver the lower cost in current euros versus '25 versus '24 despite the potential inflation headwinds and the FX pressure in the current macro environment.

    就成本而言,了解我們在做什麼非常重要。成本是我們現有的策略和目前正在執行的模式變化的結果,好嗎?值得一提的是,儘管當前宏觀環境下存在潛在的通膨逆風和外匯壓力,我們仍將重申我們的指導方針,即以當前歐元計算,實現比 25 年和 24 年更低的成本。

  • Costs were 2% higher year-on-year in Q1 in constant euros, but they declined 1% in current euros. You have lower cost in Retail is, as I said, lower by One Transformation. It's very important for you to understand the operating leverage that we're generating in which the model is allowing us to generate actually more revenue, while we maintain costs flat or down, and that basically is helping us out to have much better results.

    以不變歐元計算,第一季成本年增 2%,但以當前歐元計算則下降 1%。正如我所說,透過一次轉型,零售業的成本就會降低。對您來說,了解我們正在產生的經營槓桿非常重要,這種模式使我們能夠在保持成本平穩或下降的同時產生更多的收入,這基本上幫助我們取得更好的結果。

  • It is important also to say and it's important that you acknowledge that we are a consumer and a retail bank. And in that regard, that's exactly what we're working on to lower the cost of the operation. We're investing a lot in the platforms, and that also will allow us to basically have lower cost in the future. And you are only seeing the beginning of what we're doing.

    同樣重要的是要說,重要的是您要承認我們是一家消費者和零售銀行。在這方面,我們正在努力降低營運成本。我們在平台上投入了大量資金,這也將使我們未來的成本得以降低。而您看到的只是我們所做工作的開始。

  • If you look in detail at Retail and Consumer, as I was saying, 70% of the group cost, cost is flattish and revenue grew by 2%. That's exactly what I was explaining to you in terms of the operational leverage that we're getting. CIB, Wealth and Payments is around 30% of the group cost, increased 6%, (technical difficulty) changing the engine at the same time we're flying the plane due to the fact that we have still some of the old platforms working, and this is going to take probably the next 18 to 24 months.

    如果你仔細觀察零售和消費品,正如我所說,集團成本的 70% 基本持平,而收入成長了 2%。這正是我向您解釋的我們所獲得的營運槓桿。CIB、財富和支付約佔集團成本的 30%,增加了 6%,(技術難度)由於我們仍有一些舊平台在運行,所以在我們駕駛飛機的同時更換發動機,這大概需要接下來的 18 到 24 個月的時間。

  • On DCB Europe, okay, it's important to tell you the facts. It's important to tell you, first of all, that NII continues to do very well, and is on track to benefit from the lower rates in the future. Also important to say that market share is growing with the current OEMs that we represent.

    關於 DCB 歐洲,好的,告訴你事實很重要。首先要告訴您的是,NII 繼續表現良好,並且有望在未來從較低的利率中受益。同樣重要的是,隨著我們所代表的現有 OEM 的出現,市場份額正在不斷增長。

  • Fee income was impacted because of regulatory change in Germany, which we indicated last quarter, if you remember, and this has now been rebased by the regulatory changes.

    由於德國監管變化,費用收入受到了影響,如果您還記得的話,我們在上個季度就指出了這一點,現在這已根據監管變化進行了重新調整。

  • Impairments were higher, driven by -- partly by a mix of the items, including Germany, but we are not concerned about the credit quality of our portfolio. New origination is meeting the returns hurdles and returns will improve with lower rates. Remember that in the past, part of the stock is at lower rates that we are originating today. So that basically is helping us out. And the cost of risk normalization and the potential macro model adjustment, especially in Germany, should peak in '25, all right?

    減損損失較高,部分原因是包括德國在內的多種因素造成的,但我們並不擔心我們投資組合的信用品質。新發起的貸款正在遭遇回報障礙,利率降低將提高回報。請記住,過去部分庫存的利率低於我們今天的利率。所以這基本上是在幫助我們。風險正常化和潛在宏觀模型調整的成本,尤其是在德國,應該在 25 年達到頂峰,對嗎?

  • So I don't know if you want anything else or Jose, anything to add?

    所以我不知道您是否還想要其他東西,或者 Jose,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • No. I think, the NII was up year-on-year, which I think, it is a great performance. Our brands are doing very well relative to others. We're gaining market share. So I think -- and obviously, the impact on fees from Germany is a one-off. So it's a rebase of the fee line going forward. So I think, the return on tangible equity in the year was double digits, and we feel comfortable that we can keep -- improve the returns going forward.

    不。我認為,NII 同比成長,這是一個出色的表現。與其他品牌相比,我們的品牌表現非常好。我們的市場佔有率正在擴大。所以我認為——顯然,德國對費用的影響是一次性的。因此,這是未來費用線的重新調整。因此我認為,今年的有形資產報酬率是兩位數,我們有信心能夠維持並提高未來的報酬率。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca.

    安德烈亞·菲爾特里(Andrea Filtri),Mediobanca。

  • Andrea Filtri - Analyst

    Andrea Filtri - Analyst

  • You confirmed you are negotiating the sale of the stake in your Polish bank. Can you please share with us the rationale for exiting Poland and how you would intend to redeploy the proceeds? Why selling only 49%? And could the buyer eventually receive exemption from a mandatory bid on minorities?

    您確認正在就出售您在波蘭銀行的股份進行談判。您能否與我們分享退出波蘭的理由以及您打算如何重新部署收益?為什麼只賣49%?買家最終能否獲得少數族裔強制競標的豁免?

  • Second question on your digital transformation, which is proceeding -- (technical difficulty)

    第二個問題是關於你們正在進行的數位轉型--(技術難度)

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Okay. So in Poland, there is not much I can say at this point. As you know, we have a fiduciary duty, as I said, to basically review any offer that comes, and we're exactly doing that. So as of today, there is not much I can tell you about what's going on. Once the transaction, if it evolutes or not, we will basically give you all the details as soon as we have something, all right? So regarding that, that's all I can say at this point.

    好的。因此,關於波蘭,目前我能說的並不多。如你所知,正如我所說,我們有受託責任,基本上要審查任何提出的要約,而我們正在這樣做。所以截至今天,我還不能告訴你太多正在發生的事情。一旦交易完成,無論是否成功,我們基本上都會在有消息時立即向您提供所有詳細信息,好嗎?關於這一點,我現在只能說這麼多。

  • I don't know, Jose, if you would like to talk about.

    我不知道,何塞,你是否願意談論。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Andrea, I don't think we can talk -- give you a percentage of completion of the transformation program. The transformation program is a continuum. What I can say is that by the end of this year, 80% of our customer base will run in Gravity, which is the back-end banking system that we are developing everywhere.

    安德里亞,我認為我們不能談論——給你一個轉型計劃完成的百分比。轉型計劃是一個連續的過程。我可以說的是,到今年年底,我們 80% 的客戶群都將使用 Gravity,這是我們在各地開發的後端銀行系統。

  • And we are increasing the speed at which global platforms are being deployed across the group, like the credit card platform, Hector referred to. The point is that we should continue seeing the benefits of this transformation for years to come. And this should accelerate as we get the synergies and continue adding more customers with lower costs. This is a virtuous circle.

    我們正在加快在集團內部署全球平台的速度,例如赫克托提到的信用卡平台。重點是,我們應該在未來幾年繼續看到這種轉變的好處。隨著我們獲得協同效應並以更低的成本繼續增加更多客戶,這一進程將會加速。這是一個良性循環。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yes. Just to complement what Jose was saying, it's important of what I said just before, Andreas. We are not at a transition part, probably the most difficult two years of the transformation given that we are running the old platforms together with deploying the new platforms. And that basically doesn't help a lot in the cost.

    是的。為了補充何塞所說的話,安德烈亞斯,我剛才說的話很重要。我們還沒有進入過渡階段,考慮到我們正在運行舊平台並部署新平台,這可能是轉型過程中最困難的兩年。而這基本上對成本沒有太大幫助。

  • And even with this -- or despite this, we are basically being able to control cost and even lower it in some cases. That basically is also because we are gaining market share and we're gaining customers. Just we gained 9 million customers in a year. So that basically tells you that the model is working and clients are liking what we're doing, right?

    即使如此——或者儘管如此,我們基本上仍然能夠控製成本,甚至在某些情況下降低成本。這基本上也是因為我們正在獲得市場份額並贏得客戶。我們一年內就獲得了 900 萬客戶。所以這基本上告訴你該模型正在發揮作用並且客戶喜歡我們正在做的事情,對嗎?

  • In terms of what we're doing or what's going on in the Brazilian cost of risk, I'll be very brief. First of all, okay, it's important to understand -- (technical difficulty) Today, I would say, if you allow me, it's at its worst.

    關於我們正在做的事情或巴西風險成本的情況,我會非常簡短地介紹一下。首先,好的,重要的是要理解——(技術難度)今天,我想說,如果你允許我這麼說的話,情況已經是最糟糕的了。

  • Provisions nevertheless increased 7% quarter-on-quarter because of also the challenging macro environment. I mean, the higher inflation and look at the rates, the rates went all the way from 2%, and we're almost going to get to 15%. So that affects a little bit of the portfolios in that sense.

    儘管如此,由於宏觀環境充滿挑戰,撥備仍較上季成長了 7%。我的意思是,通膨率越高,利率就越高,從 2% 開始,我們幾乎就要達到 15% 了。從這個意義上來說,這會對投資組合產生一些影響。

  • And also the calendar effect in DCB, lower working days in the quarter that impacted the loan renegotiations. Whatever, at the end, we see better performance in retail due to the cautious approach I was explaining to you about. And we also remain very vigilant, as I was discussing in terms of credit quality, all right? So in that sense, in Brazil, I believe that we have seen the worst in terms of the cost of risk at this point.

    此外,DCB 的日曆效應,即本季工作日減少也影響了貸款重新談判。無論如何,最終,由於我向您解釋的謹慎態度,我們看到零售業表現更好。正如我所討論的信用品質方面,我們也保持高度警惕,好嗎?因此從這個意義上來說,我認為,就風險成本而言,巴西目前的情況已經是最糟糕的了。

  • In terms of -- you were asking as well about the UK. So in terms of the UK, give me one second. UK, the business is actually performing much better. We have done some hedging on the portfolio. That hedging basically in the portfolio has allowed us to have a much better outlook on NII. We are planning to increase a little bit of volumes, because we have seen a very good resistance of the cost of risk in the portfolio.

    就——您也問到了有關英國的情況。因此,就英國而言,請給我一秒鐘。英國的業務實際上表現要好得多。我們對投資組合做了一些對沖。投資組合中的對沖讓我們對 NII 有了更好的展望。我們計劃稍微增加交易量,因為我們看到投資組合的風險成本抵抗力非常好。

  • And I believe that we could have a much better outlook in the next quarter as well. So the UK is performing quite well. And also, at the same time, we are performing what I would say, much better management of the business, and we're already mentioning what we're doing there. And we have seen a very good behavior in terms of, all in all, the operations on the bank and the portfolio.

    我相信下個季度我們的前景也會更好。所以英國的表現相當不錯。同時,我們正在進行我想說的更好的業務管理,我們已經提到了我們在那裡所做的事情。整體而言,我們看到銀行和投資組合的營運表現非常好。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Francisco Riquel, Alantra.

    弗朗西斯科·里克爾,阿蘭特拉。

  • Francisco Riquel - Analyst

    Francisco Riquel - Analyst

  • Yes. So I want to ask of the US, which has surprised positively this first quarter. So several questions to assess the quality of the bit, if you allow me. So cost of funding is falling. So how much is because of Openbank, deposit gathering or how much is because of the lower Fed rates?

    是的。所以我想問美國,它在第一季帶來了驚喜。因此,如果您允許的話,我提出幾個問題來評估鑽頭的品質。因此融資成本正在下降。那麼,有多少是因為 Openbank 存款聚集,又有多少是因為聯準會利率降低?

  • The loan yield is also going up despite the lower rates. So -- and I thought you were shifting out of subprime in car lending. So you can elaborate?

    儘管利率較低,但貸款收益率也在上升。所以——我以為您正在擺脫次級汽車貸款。那您可以詳細說明一下嗎?

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • And that's mainly because what happens is you get the tax refunds and the tax back to the people and basically have -- people basically have more money. And so we have a lot less in terms of the cost of risks. So that basically always helps out. But nevertheless, this was a pretty good year.

    這主要是因為你獲得了退稅並將稅款返還給人民,這樣人們的錢就增加了。因此,我們的風險成本要低得多。所以這基本上總是有幫助的。但無論如何,這仍然是相當不錯的一年。

  • It is important to say that -- I'm not going to give you all the details of what you have asked. First of all, I could tell you that we have -- we're going to have a pretty good year in terms of what we see in the US. We reiterate the adjusted RoTE target of pre-AT1 of 15%, okay?

    需要說明的是──我不會告訴你你所問問題的所有細節。首先,我可以告訴你們,就美國的情況而言,我們今年將會過得相當不錯。我們重申 AT1 之前的調整後的 RoTE 目標為 15%,好嗎?

  • We believe the outlook of the US business has not fundamentally changed. The new tariff scheme from the imported vehicles should result in higher auto prices, but Manheim Index is up 4% year-on-year and 1.3% up year-to-date. This is very supportive of the consumer business that we have that is 60% of the US.

    我們認為美國業務的前景並未發生根本性改變。進口汽車的新關稅計劃應該會導致汽車價格上漲,但曼海姆指數年增 4%,年初至今上漲 1.3%。這對我們占美國 60% 的消費業務有很大的支持。

  • We are focused on the business that, as I can tell you, that we have competitive advantage and can deliver profitable growth. It's important to acknowledge in the terms of the particular things is the cost of funding, yes, is getting better. Just to tell you that we have EUR3.5 billion more in deposits with 90,000 new customers in Openbank.

    我可以告訴你們,我們專注於具有競爭優勢並能實現獲利成長的業務。就具體情況而言,重要的是要承認融資成本正在改善。只是想告訴您,Openbank 新增了 9 萬名客戶,存款增加了 35 億歐元。

  • So it's working quite well, much better than we expected in the beginning. And now that we launched the Verizon account, I think it's going to do much better. That account basically is really starting to work starting this week. So that basically is helping out.

    所以它運行得相當好,比我們一開始預期的要好得多。現在我們推出了 Verizon 帳戶,我認為它的表現會更好。該帳戶基本上從本週開始真正開始發揮作用。所以基本上是有幫助的。

  • Also, it's important to tell you that the behavior of the portfolio after 90 days delinquency is actually still much better than expected at around 60% in terms of delinquencies after 90 days. So that basically is helping us out, and it's the same exactly what I've been telling you all along this past 1.5 years that is much better than we expected. It was all the way to 90%. It's still at around 60% to 65% all right?

    此外,值得一提的是,90 天拖欠率之後投資組合的表現實際上仍然比預期要好得多,90 天拖欠率約為 60%。所以這基本上是在幫助我們,而且正如我過去一年半以來一直告訴你們的一樣,這比我們預期的要好得多。一直到 90% 為止。它仍然在 60% 到 65% 左右,對嗎?

  • It's also important to tell you that CIB build-out continues to be a significant driver for fee growth. It's talking -- we're talking about 47% growth year-on-year. And also Wealth is doing quite well in the LatAm offshore high net worth clients with very good returns. And the multifamily business that we have in commercial is also performing quite well. So we have a pretty good outlook for the US and to be able to get to the numbers that we have discussed.

    還需要告訴您的是,CIB 建設繼續成為費用成長的重要推動力。我們談論的是年增 47%。此外,Wealth 在拉丁美洲離岸高淨值客戶方面也表現良好,回報豐厚。我們在商業領域的多戶型業務也表現相當不錯。因此,我們對美國的前景持相當樂觀的態度,並且能夠達到我們討論過的數字。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • If I may add, sorry, Paco, very quickly. The drop in -- so the increase in the yield of loans, which year-on-year is 21 basis points is coming because of the drop in low-yield loans in commercial banking and in corporate investment banking. In fact, volumes in auto finance are up year-on-year. So the strategy in auto finance continues as we discussed. But the improvement in pricing is due to the decrease in low pricing in other parts of the business.

    如果我可以補充的話,對不起,帕科,太快了。貸款收益率的下降——年增 21 個基點——是由於商業銀行和企業投資銀行的低收益貸款減少。事實上,汽車金融交易量年增。因此,汽車金融策略將繼續按照我們所討論的方式進行。但定價的改善是由於其他業務部分低價的減少。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Yeah. And I forgot to tell you your question in terms of, are we doing more subprime? No, we are not. We're exactly at the same level of subprime that we had. And I was even looking at the numbers, it was around 40% in terms of what we still have in prime and near prime. And subprime total for the year is not going to go further than EUR15 billion that has been exactly the same number since five years ago, okay? So no changes from there.

    是的。我忘了告訴你你的問題了,我們是否會做更多的次級房貸?不,我們不是。我們目前的次貸水準與當初完全一樣。我甚至查看了數據,就我們仍處於黃金時期和接近黃金時期的資產而言,這一比例約為 40%。今年的次級房貸總額不會超過 150 億歐元,這個數字與五年前完全一樣,好嗎?因此從那時起就沒有任何變化。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

  • Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

    Alvaro Serrano - Analyst

  • I've got two questions, one on strategic growth priorities and second on capital. You just discussed US, and I wonder if that's a strategic growth priority market for you. And where I'm coming from is, obviously, I realized Poland is up in the air, but if it does go ahead, you're going to be well above 13% CET1.

    我有兩個問題,一個是關於策略成長重點,另一個是關於資本。您剛剛討論了美國,我想知道這是否是您的策略性成長重點市場。我的觀點是,顯然,我意識到波蘭的計劃尚不確定,但如果該計劃真的繼續進行,那麼 CET1 利率將遠高於 13%。

  • And from a strategic point of view, I just want to understand what are the growth priorities? Would you prioritize US, prioritize Europe to redeploy that capital, product gaps? How do you think about sort of the medium-term sort of growth priorities by markets, considering the discussions we're having?

    從策略角度來看,我只是想了解成長重點是什麼?您會優先考慮美國和歐洲來重新部署資本和產品差距嗎?考慮到我們正在進行的討論,您如何看待市場在中期的成長重點?

  • And the second question on capital. There was 8 basis points model headwinds in the quarter. I guess this might be for Jose, but is the 60 basis points still what you expect for the full year? And how many SRTs or capital efficiencies RWAs savings have you done in the quarter, considering the wobbles in the credit market, do you still see SRTs and selling of RWAs? How are you seeing the market there? Are you still able to do these operations? Thank you.

    第二個問題是關於資本的。本季存在 8 個基點模型阻力。我想這對何塞來說可能是這樣,但 60 個基點仍然是您對全年的期望嗎?考慮到信貸市場的波動,本季度您進行了多少次 SRT 或資本效率 RWA 節省,您是否仍看到 SRT 和 RWA 的出售?您如何看待那裡的市場?您還能進行這些操作嗎?謝謝。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • I will start with capital. Yes, we still think the base case scenario for regulatory and supervisory headwinds is around 60 basis points for the year. But let me remind you that -- (technical difficulty) So demand continues to be very strong. And to be honest, we are not seeing any widening or increasing in the cost, for Santander.

    我先從資本說起。是的,我們仍然認為,今年監管和監督阻力的基本情況是 60 個基點左右。但讓我提醒你——(技術難題)因此需求持續強勁。老實說,我們並沒有看到桑坦德銀行的成本有任何擴大或增加。

  • In the first quarter, total asset mobilization was around EUR2.8 billion. So obviously, it was significantly lower than risk-weighted asset growth. Net risk-weighted asset growth was around EUR12 billion. And we -- obviously, there is seasonality in SRTs and asset mobilization because it takes time to prepare the different assets to be sold.

    第一季度,總資產調動約28億歐元。因此顯然,它明顯低於風險加權資產成長率。淨風險加權資產成長約120億歐元。而且我們——顯然,SRT 和資產調動具有季節性,因為準備出售的不同資產需要時間。

  • We should see a substantial acceleration of asset mobilization in the second quarter already and towards the end of the year, and we will expect to see net risk-weighted asset growth much closer to zero every quarter from now.

    我們應該會看到資產流動在第二季以及年底大幅加速,我們預計從現在開始每季的淨風險加權資產成長率都將更接近零。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jose. So Alvaro, going back to your questions in terms of capital deployment, what we see. First, it's very important to understand that the US is a really important growth market for us. We are still, as I said, very much concentrated on delivering that 15% RoTE, and we will continue to deploy capital into the US as long as it's profitable. It's very important and I'm going to give you the hierarchy in terms of where do we deploy capital.

    謝謝你,何塞。那麼阿爾瓦羅,回到你關於資本部署的問題,我們看到了什麼。首先,我們必須明白,美國對我們來說是一個非常重要的成長市場。正如我所說,我們仍然非常專注於實現 15% 的 RoTE,並且只要有利可圖,我們就會繼續向美國投入資本。這非常重要,我將向您介紹我們如何部署資本的層次結構。

  • First of all, we're concentrating on organic growth, okay? Because organic growth we've been having is above 20%. So we will continue to do that, and we will concentrate again on organic growth. It's very important also that we are deploying money to the buybacks. You have seen the returns that we have done. I said, I mean, we have repurchased over 14% of the capital and returns at around 20%, so quite good.

    首先,我們專注於有機成長,好嗎?因為我們的有機成長率一直超過20%。因此,我們將繼續這樣做,並再次專注於有機成長。我們將資金投入回購也非常重要。您已經看到了我們所取得的回報。我說,我的意思是,我們已經回購了超過 14% 的資本,回報率在 20% 左右,所以相當不錯。

  • And we're going to be very much concentrated on running the businesses we are doing it today. I think that's the most important thing is concentrate and focus on continuing the growth of our own businesses and continue with the transformation. That's the best way to deploy our capital and to get the best returns to our shareholders, which I believe we're delivering in a quite strong way.

    我們將全心全意地經營我們今天所開展的業務。我認為最重要的是集中精力繼續發展我們自己的業務並繼續轉型。這是部署我們的資本和為股東帶來最佳回報的最佳方式,我相信我們正在以相當強勁的方式實現這一目標。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marta Sanchez Romero, Citi.

    花旗銀行的瑪塔‧桑切斯‧羅梅羅 (Marta Sanchez Romero)。

  • Marta Sanchez Romero - Analyst

    Marta Sanchez Romero - Analyst

  • My first question is on the UK What is the rationale for our motor finance business? We read some headlines a few days ago. And then my second question is on Mexico. Could you please provide an update on how the business is going there? You've been rolling out Openbank. So how many -- (technical difficulty)

    我的第一個問題是關於英國的:我們開展汽車金融業務的理由是什麼?幾天前我們讀到了一些頭條新聞。我的第二個問題是關於墨西哥的。您能否介紹一下那裡的業務進度?您一直在推出 Openbank。那麼有多少--(技術難度)

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Units due to the fact that it's very important to have them separate from the rest and funded in a different way. That's why we call it the consumer bank, and that's why Openbank is together with the consumer model that we would like to follow. So it's not particular thing of the UK. It's a particular thing of many of the different markets we operate. And you're going to see us continuously doing it in that trend, okay? So it's part of the strategy there.

    因為將單位與其他單位分開並以不同的方式提供資金非常重要。這就是我們稱之為消費者銀行的原因,也是 Openbank 與我們希望遵循的消費者模式結合在一起的原因。所以這不是英國特有的事。這是我們經營的許多不同市場的一個特徵。你會看到我們繼續按照這個趨勢做下去,好嗎?所以這是該戰略的一部分。

  • And I believe it's the right strategy given what's going on in Europe. We have been -- as you know, DCB Europe has been independent all along, and we have been able to grow it very well. Also, it's interesting to know that we have been able to find out that this business can be parachuted anywhere we want.

    我相信,考慮到歐洲目前的情況,這是正確的策略。如您所知,DCB 歐洲一直保持獨立,我們能夠很好地發展它。此外,有趣的是,我們發現這項業務可以空降到我們想要的任何地方。

  • I mean, we have done it, for example, in Peru. And now we have a very successful auto business in Peru without having a Retail bank. And the same thing we're doing in Colombia without having the Retail bank and doing this combination.

    我的意思是,例如在秘魯我們已經這樣做了。現在我們在秘魯的汽車業務非常成功,儘管我們沒有零售銀行。我們在哥倫比亞也做了同樣的事情,但沒有零售銀行,而是進行了這種組合。

  • So -- and we have been able to really grow in an important way in these countries with just this business. So we believe that managing independently makes a lot of sense and allow us to go into further countries. As you know, we are in 28 countries right now with the auto business. We continue to be a big auto lender. We really believe in that business, and we will continue to do so in that regard.

    所以——光是這項業務,我們就能夠在這些國家真正實現重要的成長。因此,我們認為獨立管理非常有意義,可以讓我們進入更遠的國家。如您所知,我們目前在 28 個國家/地區開展汽車業務。我們繼續成為一家大型汽車貸款機構。我們確實相信這項業務,我們將繼續相信這一點。

  • In terms of Mexico, the Mexican business, as you know, Mexico is actually the one that is most more affected not by the tariffs, but by what happens to the US, okay? So Mexico is very dependent on the US economy. And if the US basically has a hard time, Mexico has a harder time because a third of the economy is the US exports. You're talking about above 500 billion in terms of exports that Mexico does to the US with a GDP of $1.8 trillion.

    就墨西哥而言,如你所知,墨西哥的業務實際上受美國的影響最大,而不是受關稅的影響,好嗎?因此墨西哥經濟非常依賴美國。如果說美國現在處境艱難,那麼墨西哥的處境也會更加艱難,因為墨西哥經濟的三分之一依賴美國的出口。您說的是墨西哥對美國的出口額超過 5,000 億美元,而美國的 GDP 為 1.8 兆美元。

  • So that basically, it gives you a perspective on the size of it and how dependent is Mexico on that. Nevertheless, the Mexican economy is doing quite well, is at a very good level of unemployment, and we have seen a very good behavior of our credit portfolio.

    因此,基本上,它可以讓您了解它的規模以及墨西哥對它的依賴程度。儘管如此,墨西哥經濟表現相當不錯,失業率處於非​​常好的水平,而且我們看到我們的信貸組合表現得非常好。

  • The cost of risk is actually behaving much better than we expected -- our competitors in terms of clients coming in week per week. So -- and also deposits coming in at a good way. We are giving a better treatment in terms of the -- we are paying a lot -- a little bit more on deposits of what we pay in Santander, and that basically is enabling us to increase the client base there, but we are normalizing it as we speak.

    風險成本實際上比我們預期的要好得多——就每週來的客戶數量而言,我們的競爭對手也是如此。所以 — — 而且存款也以一種好的方式流入。我們給予了更好的待遇——我們支付了很多——在存款方面比在桑坦德銀行支付的要多一點,這基本上使我們能夠增加那裡的客戶群,但我們正在使其正常化。

  • So in that sense, what I could tell you, Mexico, we will continue pushing on organic growth and continue managing our bank the way we have been, and we believe that we have really good room for growth in that market.

    因此從這個意義上講,我可以告訴你們,墨西哥,我們將繼續推動有機成長,並繼續以我們一貫的方式管理我們的銀行,我們相信我們在該市場有很好的成長空間。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carlos Peixoto, CaixaBank.

    卡洛斯·佩索托(Carlos Peixoto),CaixaBank。

  • Carlos Peixoto - Analyst

    Carlos Peixoto - Analyst

  • HiSome of them have already been answered, but I would probably focus the discussion on where do you see NII in Spain evolving from here? Previously, you had guided to around a mid-single-digit decline, if I recall correctly, first Q seemed to perform quite strongly. Do you think that there's scope to surprise positively on that front?

    你好,有些問題已經得到解答了,但我可能會重點討論一下您認為西班牙的國家資訊基礎設施將如何發展?之前,您曾預測會出現大約中等個位數的下降,如果我沒記錯的話,第一季的表現似乎相當強勁。您認為在這方面還有可能帶來正面的驚喜嗎?

  • And then perhaps still in Spain, a bit of a view as well on the expected evolution of cost of risk throughout the year. And if I might extrapolate a bit into the rest of the bank, whether the ongoing uncertainties caused by tariffs and potential downgrades of macroeconomic expectations could lead to a revision of provisioning models inputs? And could that trigger some sort of additional provisioning over the coming quarters? Thank you so much.

    然後也許仍然在西班牙,對全年風險成本的預期演變也有一些看法。如果我可以稍微推斷銀行的其他部分,那麼關稅造成的持續不確定性和宏觀經濟預期的潛在下調是否會導致對撥備模型輸入進行修改?這是否會在未來幾季引發某種形式的額外撥備?太感謝了。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll take both questions. NII in Spain. Remember that at the end of the year, we said NII might go down mid-single digit, 6%, 7%. At that time, we thought rates could -- the terminal rate in 2024 -- sorry, '25 could be around 2%. As I just mentioned, we've been working very hard to decrease interest rate sensitivity, lengthening the duration of the ALCO portfolio.

    我將回答這兩個問題。西班牙的NII。請記住,在年底,我們說過 NII 可能會下降中等個位數,即 6%、7%。當時,我們認為利率可能——2024 年的終端利率——抱歉,25 年的利率可能在 2% 左右。正如我剛才提到的,我們一直在努力降低利率敏感性,並延長 ALCO 投資組合的期限。

  • Right now, in Spain, we have EUR44 billion of government bonds yielding 3.3% at an average maturity of seven years. On top of that, in the Eurozone, we have a total of EUR61 billion in government securities. So the interest rate sensitivity in euros is very much reduced. So even if rates were to go down and as low as 1.5% by the year-end, we still keep our NII strong everywhere.

    目前,西班牙擁有 440 億歐元的政府公債,殖利率為 3.3%,平均期限為 7 年。除此之外,在歐元區,我們總共擁有 610 億歐元的政府證券。因此歐元的利率敏感度大大降低。因此,即使利率下降,到年底低至 1.5%,我們仍能在各地保持強勁的 NII 水準。

  • We don't see any risk to our guidance of 1.15% cost of risk for the year. Again, remember that this 1.15% comprises different behaviors. Countries where cost of risk is going to be very much flat like in Mexico, countries where cost of risk could be a bit better like in the US or Spain, countries that are normalizing from negative cost of risk to very low, but still positive cost of risk like the UK and countries where we expect a slight deterioration in cost of risk, as Hector mentioned, in Brazil. So -- but net-net, 1.15% is still our central scenario.

    我們認為今年 1.15% 的風險成本指引不會有任何風險。再次提醒,請記住這 1.15% 包含不同的行為。風險成本基本上持平的國家,如墨西哥;風險成本可能稍好一些的國家,如美國或西班牙;風險成本從負值正常化為非常低但仍然為正值的國家,如英國;以及我們預計風險成本會略有下降的國家,如赫克托提到的巴西。所以——但淨值 1.15% 仍然是我們的核心情境。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Could we please have the next question, operator?

    接線員,我們可以問下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Britta Schmidt, Autonomous.

    布里塔‧施密特 (Britta Schmidt),自治。

  • Britta Schmidt - Analyst

    Britta Schmidt - Analyst

  • In Brazil, I'd be quite interested in your thoughts on what you think about the new private payroll initiative throughout, which has received some pickup. Are you intending to participate in this? And how do you think this will impact competition and margins for personal lending business overall?

    在巴西,我很想知道您對整個新的私人工資計劃的看法,該計劃已經獲得了一些支持。您有意願參加這個活動嗎?您認為這將如何影響個人貸款業務的整體競爭和利潤?

  • And then secondly, maybe you can give us a view on what your outlook now is for this year with regards to Polish FX mortgage charges and also whether you've got any updates on the UK motor finance case or the numbers that you indicated in previous calls? Thank you.

    其次,您能否向我們介紹一下您對今年波蘭外匯抵押貸款費用的展望,以及您是否有關於英國汽車金融案例的最新消息,或者您在之前的電話會議中提到過的數字?謝謝。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • So Britta, in terms of the UK motor, I mean, we believe that we are at the right place. We haven't seen any reason basically to increase it, and we believe that, that's going to be around the number that we need to have. And we're not -- we don't have any plans basically to modify it at this point.

    所以布里塔,就英國汽車而言,我的意思是,我們相信我們處於正確的位置。我們基本上沒有看到任何增加它的理由,我們相信,這將是我們需要的數字。目前我們還沒有製定任何修改它的計劃。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll take the other two questions. UK, the mortgage market. Well, in terms of volumes, year-on-year, we've seen volumes up 3% and actually a substantial increase in net interest margin in the UK. The yield on loans, in our case, is mostly mortgages, as you know, it was 3.83% in the first quarter of last year and is 4.19% in the first quarter of this year. So a substantial improvement in pricing and also better outlook for volumes. So we are quite constructive on the outlook for activity in the UK

    我將回答另外兩個問題。英國,抵押貸款市場。嗯,就交易量而言,與去年同期相比,我們看到交易量增加了 3%,而且英國的淨利差實際上大幅增加。在我們的情況下,貸款收益率主要是抵押貸款,如你所知,去年第一季為 3.83%,今年第一季為 4.19%。因此,定價將大幅改善,銷售前景也將更好。因此,我們對英國經濟活動的前景持相當樂觀的態度

  • On the liability side, at the same time, yield on deposits is down from 2.23% -- is a good move for activity.

    同時,在負債方面,存款收益率從 2.23% 下降——這對活動來說是一個好舉措。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we get the next question, please?

    接線員,我們可以回答下一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Cecilia Romero, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的塞西莉亞·羅梅羅。

  • Cicilia Romero - Analyst

    Cicilia Romero - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on Marta's question on Mexico. Nubank has just gained an approval for a banking license in Mexico this past month. Do you see any impact in the competitive landscape from this, especially for your digital bank in the country? Thank you so much.

    這只是瑪塔關於墨西哥的問題的後續答案。Nubank 上個月才剛獲得墨西哥銀行牌照批准。您是否認為這會對競爭格局產生任何影響,尤其是對您在該國的數位銀行而言?太感謝了。

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • What I would say is that, I think that, it's pretty good news for us that these guys basically turn themselves into a fully licensed bank because then they have to comply with the same rules as we do as a bank. So in that regard, we are happy that they turn themselves into a fully-fledged bank. The competition right now in the market is very tough, very competitive. And we believe that we have all the tools needed to be able to compete at a head-to-head against any competitor in the market.

    我想說的是,我認為,這些人基本上將自己轉變為一家完全獲得許可的銀行,這對我們來說是個好消息,因為他們必須遵守與我們銀行相同的規則。因此從這個角度來看,我們很高興他們能夠轉型成為一家成熟的銀行。目前市場競爭非常激烈,競爭非常激烈。我們相信,我們擁有與市場上任何競爭對手正面競爭所需的一切工具。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • The next question, please, operator.

    接線員,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ignacio Cerezo, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Ignacio Cerezo。

  • Ignacio Cerezo - Analyst

    Ignacio Cerezo - Analyst

  • I've got three. The first one is, if you can give us some information on when we should be expecting you to take the decision on the extraordinary capital distribution between '25 and '26, how that extraordinary distribution is going to be split between both years? Second one is if you can share the fully-loaded capital number in the quarter, not just the phased in. And third, if you can provide an update in terms of the hedging per unit you do in terms of FX and for the P&L.

    我有三個。第一個問題是,您能否向我們提供一些信息,告訴我們何時應該對 25 年至 26 年之間的特別資本分配做出決定,以及該特別資本分配將如何在這兩年之間分配?第二個問題是,您是否可以分享本季的全部資本數字,而不僅僅是分階段的數字。第三,您是否可以提供關於外匯和損益表的單位對沖的最新資訊?

  • Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

    Hector Grisi Checa - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director

  • Okay. In terms of the extraordinary capital distributions, we'll do as we see fit. We see it much more towards the year '26. The important fact that we are doing now is basically very much concentrated in delivering the capital numbers, as Jose explained to you last quarter, basically what we need to absorb in terms of the regulatory items, et cetera. Once that basically that have been covered, we will continue to build up, and we will tell you exactly when the extraordinary capital distributions will happen, okay?

    好的。對於特別資本分配,我們將按照我們認為合適的方式進行。到了 26 年,我們會看到更多這樣的情況。我們現在正在做的重要的事實基本上集中在提供資本數字上,正如 Jose 上個季度向您解釋的那樣,基本上我們需要吸收監管項目等方面的知識。一旦基本上涵蓋了這些內容,我們將繼續進行,並且我們會準確地告訴您何時會發生特別資本分配,好嗎?

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • About the fully loaded number. Again, the -- I have to give you a range because the technical notes that the EBA will publish can have a substantial impact long term. We are talking to 2030 to 2033, but I'm referring to the conversion factors -- the credit conversion factors and the uncommitted credit lines, which we are still pending a final note on that. So the fully loaded could range somewhere between 25 to 40, 45 basis points.

    關於滿載數量。再次強調,我必須給出一個範圍,因為 EBA 發布的技術說明可能會產生長期重大影響。我們討論的是 2030 年至 2033 年,但我指的是轉換因子——信用轉換因子和未承諾的信用額度,我們仍在等待對此的最終說明。因此滿載率可能在 25 至 40、45 個基點之間。

  • Today, we see more, sort of, towards the low end of that range, around 25 to 30 basis points. In our case, most of that impact will come in the next three to five years at most. So we would expect -- and this is related to the operational risk.

    今天,我們看到利率進一步接近該範圍的低端,約為 25 至 30 個基點。就我們而言,大部分影響最多會在未來三到五年內顯現。所以我們預計——這與營運風險有關。

  • So our central scenario again is that we could have from -- moving from phasing to fully loaded, something around 5 basis points per year for the next five years. And then longer term, depending on everything related to credit, which is mostly 2029 to 2033, there could be an additional factor -- level, in this case, 12.9%.

    因此,我們的核心設想是,我們可以從分階段轉向滿載,未來五年每年增加約 5 個基點。從長期來看,取決於與信貸相關的一切因素,主要是 2029 年至 2033 年,可能還會有一個額外的因素——水平,在本例中為 12.9%。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Operator, could we have the last question, I believe.

    接線員,我想我們可以問最後一個問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pablo de la Torre, RBC.

    帕布羅·德拉托雷(Pablo de la Torre),加拿大皇家銀行。

  • Pablo de la Torre - Analyst

    Pablo de la Torre - Analyst

  • I had two more on the UK. I think the first one was Santander UK was a signatory to a letter to the Chancellor requesting the abolition of the ring-fencing regime here in the UK. Could you please provide more color on what the actual financial impact you would expect from the ring-fencing regime being discontinued? And then, more on the trends in the UK in the quarter and a follow-up, I guess, could you just update us on the structural hedge and the shape of NII for the rest of the year that you see in the UK? Thank you.

    我還有兩篇關於英國的文章。我認為第一個是桑坦德英國銀行簽署了一封給財政大臣的信,要求廢除英國的隔離制度。您能否詳細說明一下,如果取消隔離制度,您預期會產生什麼樣的實際財務影響?然後,關於本季度英國的趨勢以及後續情況,我想,您能否向我們介紹一下您在英國看到的今年剩餘時間的結構性對沖和 NII 形態?謝謝。

  • Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

    Jose Cantera - Group Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. So let me take the second question first. Structural hedge is almost EUR110 billion at a yield of 2.47% or 2.5% to round it up. We would expect NII to go up in the UK low single digits, in line with volumes up also low single digits. So generally, the same guidance that we gave at the end of the first quarter.

    好的。那我先回答第二個問題。結構性對沖金額接近 1,100 億歐元,收益率為 2.47% 或 2.5%。我們預計英國的 NII 將以低個位數成長,與交易量的低個位數成長一致。總體而言,與我們在第一季末給出的指導相同。

  • The ring-fencing. Well, we are convinced not only in the UK but in Europe that banks can contribute a lot more to improving competitiveness in Europe and in the UK and contributing to growth. And we think that having a simpler framework to operate will help.

    圍欄。嗯,我們相信,不僅在英國,而且在歐洲,銀行可以為提高歐洲和英國的競爭力和促進成長做出更大的貢獻。我們認為,擁有一個更簡單的操作框架將會有所幫助。

  • But that applies to the UK, and it applies to Europe as well. In terms of what impact this could have on us is negligible. So this is not a question of an impact in the near term. It's just that a simpler operating framework in Europe and in the UK should help banks contribute more to improving productivity and growth in the UK and in Europe.

    但這適用於英國,也適用於歐洲。就這對我們造成的影響而言,是微不足道的。所以這不是一個短期內會產生影響的問題。只是,歐洲和英國更簡單的營運框架應該有助於銀行為提高英國和歐洲的生產力和成長做出更多貢獻。

  • Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Raul Sinha - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks very much, Jose, for that. Thank you, everybody, for all your questions. The whole IR team is available, if you've got any follow-ups. We thank you for your time and wish you a very good day.

    非常感謝,何塞。謝謝大家提出的所有問題。如果您有任何後續事宜,整個 IR 團隊都可以為您提供協助。感謝您抽出時間並祝您有個愉快的一天。