力拓 (RIO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the presentation of Rio Tinto's 2022 financial results. Here in the room, can I please ask you to switch off your phone or at least turn it to silent? As usual, you'll hear today from Jakob and Peter, and this time hopefully from Bold as well, followed by a Q&A session. For those of you on the phone, on the web, you'll receive instructions as per usual from the operator. (Operator Instructions) For those in the room, there is no fire alarm planned. If you hear one, please leave the room. We provide these 2 emergency doors here and follow the instructions of the fire wardens.

大家早安，下午好。歡迎觀看力拓 2022 年財務業績展示。在房間裡，我可以請您關掉手機或至少將其調至靜音嗎？像往常一樣，今天您會聽到雅各和彼得的聲音，這次也有望聽到博爾德的聲音，然後是問答環節。對於那些使用電話、網路的用戶，您將照常收到接線生的說明。 （操作員說明）對於房間內的人員，沒有計劃設置火警警報。如果您聽到這種聲音，請離開房間。我們在這裡提供這兩扇緊急門，並遵循消防員的指示。

Having said that, please take some time to read the cautionary statements on Slide #2. Now that you have all finished speed reading, please, Jakob, the floor is yours.

話雖如此，請花一些時間閱讀投影片 #2 上的警告聲明。現在你們已經完成了速讀，雅各布，請發言。

Thank you, Menno. Good morning, and good evening. I'm really pleased to be here with you in London, and thank you for those of you joining virtually. Peter is with me, and I'm very excited that we have Bold joining us from 1.3 kilometers underground from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in the Gobi Desert of Mongolia in a moment. Before I start, I'd like to acknowledge and pay my respect to all traditional owners and First Nations people that host our operations around the world.

謝謝你，門諾。早安，晚上好。我很高興能在倫敦與你們相聚，並感謝你們以虛擬方式加入。 Peter 和我在一起，我很高興 Bold 馬上就從蒙古戈壁沙漠奧尤陶勒蓋礦地下 1.3 公里處加入了我們。在開始之前，我要向所有在世界各地主持我們業務的傳統業主和原住民表示感謝和敬意。

For me, 2022 was about building an even stronger Rio Tinto by investing in the health of our business and shaping our portfolio for the future while also delivering during the year. We achieved strong financial results with underlying earnings of $13.3 billion, free cash flow of $9 billion and a return on capital employed of 25%. We will return $8 billion to our shareholders in line with our policy, and representing the second largest ordinary dividend in our 150 years history. These results continue our track record of delivering consistently strong performance in an ever-changing world. Since 2020, we have achieved $47 billion in earnings, paying $29 billion of taxes and royalties, investing $20 billion in the business and returning $33 billion to our shareholders. Our consistently strong financial results highlights the underlying strength of the business, our world-class assets, and most of all, our great people in meeting various challenges.

對我來說，2022 年是透過投資我們業務的健康發展、塑造面向未來的投資組合，打造一個更強大的力拓集團，同時在這一年中實現目標。我們取得了強勁的財務業績，基本收益達 133 億美元，自由現金流達 90 億美元，所用資本回報率為 25%。我們將按照我們的政策向股東返還 80 億美元，這是我們 150 年歷史上第二高的普通股息。這些成果延續了我們在不斷變化的世界中始終保持強勁業績的記錄。自 2020 年以來，我們實現了 470 億美元的盈利，繳納了 290 億美元的稅款和特許權使用費，向業務投資了 200 億美元，並向股東返還了 330 億美元。我們持續強勁的財務表現突顯了我們的業務基礎實力、我們的世界級資產，以及最重要的是我們應對各種挑戰的優秀人才。

As we look to build an even stronger future, it's clearly about more than today's financials. It's about meeting our objectives and progressing our strategy to set the business up for long-term success. It's also about having the right values of care, courage and curiosity and transforming our culture. 2022 was another fatality-free year, building on the prior 3 years. Much of the success is the result of work implemented through our safety maturity model, which provides a roadmap for our leaders. I recently visited many sites, and what I'm seeing gives me confidence that we are on the right track to restoring our DNA of being the best operator.

當我們尋求建立更強大的未來時，顯然，我們關心的不僅僅是今天的財務狀況。這是為了實現我們的目標並推進我們的策略，以使業務長期成功。它還涉及擁有關懷​​、勇氣和好奇心等正確價值觀，並改變我們的文化。 2022 年是繼前三年基礎上另一個零死亡年份。大部分成功都是透過我們的安全成熟度模型實施的工作的結果，該模型為我們的領導者提供了路線圖。我最近訪問了許多網站，我所看到的讓我相信我們正走在正確的道路上，以恢復我們成為最佳運營商的 DNA。

The momentum from the rollout of our Safe Production System is clear. The teams are working together, are having open and transparent conversations and are finding better ways to address irritants and improve efficiency. This is translating into operational performance, higher level of employee engagement and improved safety performance.

安全生產體系推出的勢頭是顯而易見的。這些團隊正在共同努力，進行公開透明的對話，並尋找更好的方法來解決問題並提高效率。這轉化為營運績效、更高水準的員工敬業度和更高的安全績效。

We have been working hard to implement meaningful change in the way we partner with communities. A real highlight was the agreement with the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura people to create the Juukan Gorge Legacy Foundation as part of the remedy for the destruction of the rock shelters in May 2020. This is a significant step forward, but we know it will be a long journey to rebuild trust.

我們一直在努力對與社區的合作方式進行有意義的改變。真正的亮點是與Puutu Kunti Kurrama 和Pinikura 人達成協議，創建Juukan 峽谷遺產基金會，作為2020 年5 月岩石庇護所被毀的補救措施的一部分。這是向前邁出的重要一步，但我們知道這將是重建信任的漫長旅程。

In addition, we have signed new agreements with the Yindjibarndi and the Yinhawangka people in Australia and the Pekuakamiulnuatsh First Nation in Canada. An investment of $3.9 billion in sustaining CapEx and a more active approach to maintenance meant our existing assets were in a better health at the end of the year than they were at the beginning. In short, the health of our assets, our culture and our social license improved in 2022.

此外，我們也與澳洲的 Yindjibarndi 和 Yinhawangka 人以及加拿大的 Pekuakamiulnuatsh 原住民簽署了新協議。投資 39 億美元用於維持資本支出和更積極的維護方法意味著我們現有的資產在年底比年初更健康。簡而言之，我們的資產、文化和社會許可的健康狀況在 2022 年得到了改善。

Our acquisitions of TRQ and Rincon will add tonnes in materials essential to the energy transition and strengthen our ability to deliver strong returns for the long term. In addition, we realized value through divesting the Cortez gold royalty. I'm proud that we have reset our relationship with Mongolia. Coupled with the acquisition of TRQ, we are able to work much closer together to ensure all stakeholders benefit from Oyu Tolgoi.

我們對 TRQ 和 Rincon 的收購將增加能源轉型所需材料的噸數，並增強我們實現強勁長期回報的能力。此外，我們也透過剝離 Cortez 黃金特許權使用費實現了價值。我很自豪我們已經重置了與蒙古的關係。加上收購 TRQ，我們能夠更加緊密地合作，以確保所有利害關係人從奧尤陶勒蓋受益。

At Simandou, we incorporated the infrastructure joint venture with our various partners and the government of Guinea. This was an important milestone, and we are now working on finalizing the shareholder agreements, cost estimates and regulatory approvals necessary to progress the co-development of rail and port facilities.

在西芒杜，我們與各個合作夥伴以及幾內亞政府組成了基礎設施合資企業。這是一個重要的里程碑，我們現在正在努力敲定推進鐵路和港口設施共同開發所需的股東協議、成本估算和監管批准。

So we made real progress in 2022 reshaping our portfolio and thereby strengthening Rio for the longer term.

因此，我們在 2022 年取得了真正的進展，重塑了我們的投資組合，從而從長遠來看增強了 Rio 的實力。

As we strive to become a more outward-looking company, we are engaging broadly. I have met with customers, suppliers, governments, communities and other stakeholders in Canada, Japan, the U.S., to name a few, and I will be visiting China in the coming weeks.

當我們努力成為一家更外向的公司時，我們正在廣泛參與。我會見了加拿大、日本、美國等地的客戶、供應商、政府、社區和其他利益相關者，我將在未來幾週內訪問中國。

In particular, from the conversations I'm having with governments and customers, they're increasingly aware of the importance of mining to achieve the energy transition and strengthening supply chain security. It is now clear than ever that putting climate at the heart of our strategy is the right thing to do and the right business decision. While it is early days in a long journey with the progress to date, I'm confident that we have a pathway to achieve our 2030 and 2050 targets. In 2023, we will continue to invest in moving from ambitions to solutions. It's a complex challenge but there's real energy from our people and the many partners we are working with to decarbonize and deliver more of the materials needed for the transition.

特別是，從我與政府和客戶的對話中，他們越來越意識到採礦對於實現能源轉型和加強供應鏈安全的重要性。現在比以往任何時候都更清楚的是，將氣候議題置於我們策略的核心是正確的做法和正確的商業決策。雖然迄今為止的進展還處於漫長旅程的早期階段，但我相信我們有實現 2030 年和 2050 年目標的途徑。 2023年，我們將繼續投資，從雄心壯志到解決方案。這是一項複雜的挑戰，但我們的員工以及與我們合作的許多合作夥伴都具有真正的能量，可以實現脫碳並提供更多轉型所需的材料。

Let me now hand over to Peter to take you through the financials in details. Peter?

現在讓我請彼得向您詳細介紹財務狀況。彼得？

Thank you, Jakob. Good morning and good evening, everyone. Let's now take a look at the numbers in more detail. Once again, we've announced a solid set of results. And of course, this is set against the context of record prices and financials in 2021. The business remained resilient and we entered 2023 with good operational momentum, especially in Pilbara iron ore, which I'll come back to later. However, lower prices and accelerating cost inflation throughout the year led to margin compression with underlying EBITDA down 30% to $26 billion. Cash flow from operations of $16 billion included some items of a nonrecurring nature which were not representative of the underlying strength of the performance of the business.

謝謝你，雅各。大家早安，晚上好。現在讓我們更詳細地看一下這些數字。我們再次宣布了一組可靠的結果。當然，這是在 2021 年創紀錄的價格和財務狀況的背景下進行的。業務保持彈性，我們以良好的營運勢頭進入 2023 年，尤其是皮爾巴拉鐵礦石，我稍後會再討論。然而，全年價格下降和成本上漲加速導致利潤率壓縮，基本 EBITDA 下降 30% 至 260 億美元。 160 億美元的營運現金流包括一些非經常性項目，這些項目不能代表業務績效的潛在實力。

In aggregate, the ATO settlement in respect of 12 historical years, the final payment on Australian taxes for 2021 profits and hedging losses on U.S. dollar dividend payments reduced operating cash flow by just under $2 billion. Free cash flow of $9 billion was after $6.8 billion of capital expenditure and a modest working capital outflow, reflecting elevated prices for raw materials in aluminum inventory. Following $11.7 billion of dividends paid and $3.8 billion of acquisitions, we ended the year with net debt of $4.2 billion. With a 25% return on capital and underlying earnings of $13.3 billion, we have declared an $8 billion full year ordinary dividend, a 60% payout.

總的來說，ATO 與 12 個歷史年度的和解、2021 年利潤的澳洲稅款最終繳納以及美元股息支付的對沖損失，使營運現金流減少了近 20 億澳元。在 68 億美元的資本支出和適度的營運資本流出之後，自由現金流為 90 億美元，反映出鋁庫存原物料價格上漲。在支付了 117 億美元的股息和 38 億美元的收購後，我們年底的淨債務為 42 億美元。資本回報率為 25%，基本收益為 133 億美元，我們宣布全年普通股息為 80 億美元，股息率為 60%。

Now let's look at some of the key drivers. 2022 was a volatile year for commodity prices with declines in the first half, albeit from record highs, accelerating in the second. Realized iron ore prices dropped 22%; copper, 19%; and for aluminum, it really was a year of 2 halves with a significant pricing momentum we enjoyed in the first half tailing off sharply in the second, down 25%. Following 3 years of growth to an all-time high in 2021, global iron ore demand contracted. In China, the property market worsened while COVID restrictions impacted steel demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. This is clearly reflected in the graph on the left, but I would just highlight that our average realized pricing relative to Platts markedly improved in the second half.

現在讓我們來看看一些關鍵驅動因素。 2022 年對大宗商品價格來說是動盪的一年，儘管從歷史高點開始下滑，但下半年卻加速下滑。實現鐵礦石價格下跌22%；銅，19%；對於鋁來說，這確實是一個分為兩半的一年，我們在上半年享有的顯著定價勢頭在下半年急劇減弱，下降了 25%。經過三年的成長並於 2021 年創歷史新高後，全球鐵礦石需求萎縮。在中國，房地產市場惡化，而新冠疫情限制影響了鋼鐵需求，對價格造成下行壓力。這清楚地反映在左圖中，但我想強調的是，我們的平均實現定價相對於普氏能源資訊在下半年顯著改善。

In aluminum, expectations of a stronger demand outlook and Russian supply cuts did not eventuate, leading to prices falling to a low point in the second half as fears of a global economic slowdown set in. This was compounded by higher coal prices and costs for key materials such as petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Copper prices also trended down as a wave of uncertainty surrounded the global economy and China's Zero-COVID policy weighed on demand prospects.

在鋁方面，需求前景走強和俄羅斯減產的預期並未實現，導致下半年價格跌至低點，因為人們擔心全球經濟放緩。煤炭價格和關鍵成本的上漲加劇了這一情況。石油焦和煤焦油瀝青等材料。由於全球經濟的不確定性浪潮以及中國的「零新冠」政策打壓了需求前景，銅價也呈現下跌趨勢。

Let's now take a look more closely at some of the year-on-year movements. Overall, I should stress that it was a solid result with $26.3 billion of EBITDA, still at very attractive levels, 10% above 2020. As ever, commodity prices were the biggest driver of the 2021 variance, lowering EBITDA by $8.1 billion in aggregate. Iron ore was $9.2 billion negative following the record prices of 2021. This is partly offset by aluminum and a recovery from minerals, in particular titanium dioxide feedstocks and borates.

現在讓我們更仔細地看看一些同比變動。總體而言，我應該強調，這是一個堅實的結果，EBITDA 為263 億美元，仍然處於非常有吸引力的水平，比2020 年高出10%。一如既往，大宗商品價格是2021 年差異的最大驅動因素，使EBITDA 總共降低了81 億美元。繼 2021 年價格創下歷史新高後，鐵礦石價格出現了 92 億美元的負值。這部分被鋁和礦物（特別是二氧化鈦原料和硼酸鹽）的復甦所抵消。

Let me make a few points on inflation. I would like to highlight that this is an industry-wide phenomenon and therefore, supportive of higher prices as cost curves shift upwards. The impact of general price inflation is reflected on the left of this chart. This, together with rising energy costs, mostly diesel but also higher market-linked prices for raw materials especially in aluminum, lowered EBITDA by $3.5 billion.

讓我就通貨膨脹說幾點。我想強調的是，這是一個全行業的現象，因此，隨著成本曲線向上移動，價格會上漲。整體價格通膨的影響反映在該圖表的左側。再加上能源成本（主要是柴油）的上漲，以及與市場相關的原物料價格（尤其是鋁）的上漲，導致 EBITDA 減少了 35 億美元。

If we look at the right of the chart, you can see that the other factors were reasonably well contained despite the tightness in some of our key labor markets, which raised costs above the general level of inflation. This demonstrates the resilience of our operations and focus on controllables. Higher volumes and changes in product mix increased EBITDA by $600 million. This was mostly attributable to increased iron ore sales from China port side, along with some favorable value-added product premiums for aluminum. We are proactively incurring new costs as we build up teams to successfully deliver on our strategy to protect heritage, drive value-accretive growth and derisk the business as we decarbonize in the years to come.

如果我們看一下圖表的右側，您可以看到，儘管我們的一些主要勞動力市場緊張，導致成本高於整體通膨水平，但其他因素得到了相當好的控制。這證明了我們營運的彈性和對可控因素的關注。產量的增加和產品組合的變化使 EBITDA 增加了 6 億美元。這主要歸因於中國港口方面鐵礦石銷售的增加，以及鋁的一些有利的加值產品溢價。我們正在積極承擔新的成本，因為我們正在組建團隊，以成功實施我們的策略，以保護遺產、推動增值成長並在未來幾年脫碳時降低業務風險。

These include increased resourcing in the Pilbara to support the ramp-up of Gudai-Darri and additional resources in pit health and system reliability and higher evaluation costs at Simandou and Rincon as activities accelerate. We also incurred additional costs at Kitimat and Boyne as we recovered from disruptions. So overall, I'm reasonably comfortable with our cost performance. But I would like to point out the higher costs are not going away overnight. As supply contracts renewed and collective bargaining agreements come up for negotiation, we will see some inflation continuing to flow through to the cost base in 2023.

其中包括增加皮爾巴拉的資源以支持 Gudai-Darri 的產能提升，以及在坑健康和系統可靠性方面提供更多資源，以及隨著活動的加速，西芒杜和林孔的評估成本更高。當我們從中斷中恢復過來時，我們還在基蒂馬特和博伊恩產生了額外費用。總的來說，我對我們的性價比相當滿意。但我想指出的是，較高的成本不會在一夜之間消失。隨著供應合約的更新和集體談判協議的談判，我們將看到 2023 年一些通膨繼續影響成本基礎。

Turning to product group performance. We've entered 2023 in good shape with our iron ore business having turned the corner operationally. Clearly, the financials were not as strong as 2021 when we enjoyed unsustainably high prices, but we did set a number of second half records in our Pilbara system and year-end inventories were healthy. Aluminum was more challenged both operationally and in terms of markets, which led to the significant squeeze I mentioned earlier with EBITDA margins compressed from 41% in the first half to just 15% in the second when we felt the full impact of cyclical downturn. However, markets have since recovered somewhat, and the longer-term outlook for the industry remains positive. With its superior hydro power position, our business has clear competitive advantages and is very well placed for the next cycle.

轉向產品組績效。進入 2023 年，我們的狀況良好，鐵礦石業務的運作已出現轉機。顯然，財務狀況不如 2021 年那麼強勁，當時我們享受了不可持續的高價，但我們的皮爾巴拉系統確實創下了下半年的多項記錄，而且年終庫存也很健康。鋁在營運和市場方面都面臨著更大的挑戰，這導致了我前面提到的嚴重擠壓，EBITDA 利潤率從上半年的41% 壓縮到下半年的15%，當時我們感受到了週期性衰退的全面影響。然而，市場此後已有所復甦，該行業的長期前景仍然樂觀。憑藉其優越的水力發電地位，我們的業務具有明顯的競爭優勢，並為下一個週期做好了準備。

We also have some production uplift ahead with output from Boyne and Kitimat recovering and 4 ramp-up expected later this year.

隨著博因 (Boyne) 和基蒂馬特 (Kitimat) 產量的恢復，預計今年稍後產量將有所增加，預計產量將有所增加。

The delta in copper was mainly market-related. Although lower gold volumes, as planned, were also a driver pushing up net unit costs. The success of the TRQ acquisition will see our copper production rise to between 650,000 and 710,000 tonnes this year on a consolidated basis, increasing to around 1 million tonnes once Oyu Tolgoi reaches full capacity. And lastly, minerals, where iron and titanium and borates posted strong recoveries, somewhat masked by lower prices at the iron ore company of Canada.

銅價的增量主要與市場相關。儘管按計劃減少黃金產量也是推高淨單位成本的因素。 TRQ 收購的成功將使我們今年的銅產量在綜合基礎上增加到 65 萬至 71 萬噸，一旦奧尤陶勒蓋達到滿載產能，將增加到約 100 萬噸。最後是礦產品，其中鐵、鈦和硼酸鹽強勁復甦，但加拿大鐵礦石公司價格下跌已掩蓋。

Looking ahead, there is much uncertainty with high inflation and tight monetary policy carried into 2023 and the global economy expected to slow down further. Nevertheless, there are some green shoots. Commodity prices have found support in recent months with global base metal inventories at low levels and China policy pivoting to pro-growth. This could provide some support, especially in infrastructure and real estate. Cost pressures should ease over time with lower energy prices flowing through. However, we should expect further volatility with constraints for skilled labor and increases still to come in contracted costs, which are often lagged to an index.

展望2023年，高通膨和緊縮貨幣政策存在較大不確定性，全球經濟預計將進一步放緩。儘管如此，還是有一些萌芽。近幾個月來，隨著全球基本金屬庫存處於低水平以及中國政策轉向促進增長，大宗商品價格得到支撐。這可以提供一些支持，特別是在基礎設施和房地產領域。隨著時間的推移，隨著能源價格的下降，成本壓力應該會緩解。然而，我們應該預期，由於熟練勞動力的限制以及合約成本的增加，預計會出現進一步的波動，而合約成本往往落後於指數。

Returning to our Pilbara business. We finished 2022 with strong momentum with our best fourth quarter production ever and healthy inventories across the system. And this has not always been the case. The rate of cost inflation in the Pilbara is moderating with 2023 unit cost guidance of $21 to $22.50 per tonne, a modest increase on last year. It reflects our continued focus on asset integrity and disciplined management of controllables with some volume benefits.

回到我們的皮爾巴拉業務。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了 2022 年，第四季度的產量達到有史以來最好的水平，整個系統的庫存也保持健康。但情況並非總是如此。皮爾巴拉的成本通膨率正在放緩，2023 年單位成本指引為每噸 21 美元至 22.50 美元，比去年略有成長。它反映了我們對資產完整性和可控因素的嚴格管理的持續關注，並帶來了一定的數量效益。

We continue to prioritize management of heritage sites as we engage and work with traditional owners. Western Ranger is a great case in point, our first co-designed mine. This will lead to better heritage and environmental outcomes and greater certainty for mine development. We remain focused on ramping up Gudai-Darri and expect it to reach nameplate capacity on a sustained basis later this year. The systematic approach of our Safe Production System, or SPS, is yielding results with full deployments last year at Tom Price and Brockman 4. We are targeting a 5 million tonne uplift -- production uplift across the system this year, as mentioned at our investor seminar last November.

在與傳統所有者接觸和合作時，我們繼續優先考慮遺產地的管理。 Western Ranger 就是一個很好的例子，它是我們第一個共同設計的礦坑。這將帶來更好的遺產和環境成果以及礦山開發的更大確定性。我們仍然專注於提高 Gudai-Darri 的產能，並預計今年稍後將持續達到銘牌產能。我們的安全生產系統(SPS) 的系統方法去年在Tom Price 和Brockman 4 進行了全面部署，正在取得成果。正如我們的投資者所提到的，我們的目標是今年提高整個系統的產量500 萬噸。去年11月的研討會。

Following the success of SPS and the Pilbara, our productivity drive is gathering momentum globally. We met our 2022 target with 30 deployments across 16 sites, and we are already seeing improved performance at many locations. Each deployment addresses a different bottleneck. For example, at IOC and Kennecott, we focused on the concentrators; and at Amrun, on the fixed plant. Rollouts are ongoing to continuously improve safety, strengthen employee engagement and sustainably lift operational performance. And we will build on that in 2023, rolling out to new sites, and going deeper at existing ones, replicating the learnings from last year.

繼 SPS 和 Pilbara 的成功之後，我們的生產力驅動力正在全球範圍內積聚動力。我們在 16 個站點進行了 30 次部署，實現了 2022 年的目標，我們已經看到許多地點的效能得到改善。每個部署都解決不同的瓶頸。例如，在國際奧委會和肯尼科特，我們專注於集中器；在阿姆倫的固定工廠。不斷推出的產品旨在不斷提高安全性、增強員工敬業度並持續提升營運績效。我們將在 2023 年以此為基礎，推出新網站，並深入現有網站，複製去年的經驗教訓。

The focus will be very much on improving asset health and performance in order to stabilize the variability we currently experience around production levels. We will also seek to identify key Kaizens for high-priority improvements, replicate these across the organization and upskill our people through training initiatives.

重點將放在改善資產健康和績效上，以穩定我們目前在生產水準方面所經歷的變化。我們還將尋求確定關鍵的改善措施以進行高度優先的改進，在整個組織中複製這些改善措施，並透過培訓計劃來提高我們的員工的技能。

Moving on to capital allocation. We will continue to invest throughout the cycle, balancing near-term returns to shareholders with reinvestment for growth and derisking future cash flows. Essential capital remains our priority for capital allocation. It includes sustaining capital to ensure the integrity of our assets, high returning replacement projects and decarbonization investment. This is followed by ordinary dividends within our well-established returns policy. We then test investment in compelling growth against debt management and additional cash returns to shareholders. In 2022, investment in essential capital dipped slightly to $6.2 billion, and we finished the year with total CapEx of $6.8 billion. We successfully completed all sustaining and critical path replacement projects with the lower spend driven by a weaker Australian dollar, timing of growth CapEx and phasing on decarbonization.

繼續進行資本配置。我們將繼續在整個週期中進行投資，平衡股東的近期回報與成長再投資和降低未來現金流風險。必要資本仍然是我們資本配置的首要任務。它包括維持資本以確保我們資產的完整性、高回報替代項目和脫碳投資。接下來是我們完善的回報政策範圍內的普通股利。然後，我們根據債務管理和股東額外現金回報來測試引人注目的成長投資。 2022 年，基本資本投資小幅下降至 62 億美元，全年資本支出總額為 68 億美元。我們成功完成了所有維持和關鍵路徑更換項目，由於澳元疲軟、資本支出成長時機和逐步脫碳，支出減少。

Now it's worth looking at our third priority for capital allocation in more depth. Over the past few years, we've supplemented the ordinary dividend with specials given our strong earnings and cash flows. We're now seeing a modest shift towards compelling growth as we unlock opportunities with $5.3 billion allocated in 2022, including our first forays into M&A for over a decade. The largest component of our investment in growth were the $825 million acquisition of Rincon and the $3 billion purchase of noncontrolling interests in TRQ, doubling our holding in Oyu Tolgoi to 66%. This is, of course, our largest growth project, where we invested a further $500 million in 2022 with first sustainable production now expected in the first quarter. And Bold will be updating us shortly direct from Mongolia.

現在值得更深入地研究我們資本配置的第三個優先事項。在過去的幾年裡，鑑於我們強勁的利潤和現金流，我們用特別股息補充了普通股息。隨著我們在 2022 年分配 53 億美元釋放機遇，包括我們十多年來首次涉足併購，我們現在看到了向引人注目的增長的適度轉變。我們成長投資的最大組成部分是以 8.25 億美元收購 Rincon 以及以 30 億美元購買 TRQ 的非控制權益，使我們在奧尤陶勒蓋的持股比例增加一倍，達到 66%。當然，這是我們最大的成長項目，我們將在 2022 年進一步投資 5 億美元，目前預計將在第一季實現首次永續生產。 Bold 很快就會直接從蒙古向我們通報最新情況。

Our exploration and evaluation spend also gathered momentum at $900 million with greenfield programs mainly focused on copper and evaluation prioritized on projects where we expect near-term investment decisions. We've included our usual CapEx slide as an appendix. We now expect our share of capital to be about $8 billion in 2023, including $2 billion for growth.

我們的勘探和評估支出也達到了 9 億美元，綠地專案主要集中在銅，評估優先考慮我們預期近期投資決策的項目。我們將常用的資本支出投影片作為附錄。我們現在預計 2023 年我們的資本份額約為 80 億美元，其中包括 20 億美元用於成長。

Importantly, we're absorbing inflationary pressures within our total guidance. For each of '24 and '25, we expect this to rise to between $9 billion and $10 billion, including $3 billion of growth each year. And -- but as we said at our seminar, Simandou comprises around 45% of the forward-looking growth CapEx over the next 3 years. But as I've mentioned before, investment in growth is highly dependent on the timing of commitments. If we cannot develop value-accretive options, we will follow our capital allocation framework. And Simandou is a clear example. It's included in our capital guidance but we first need to reach agreement with our JV partners, the Government of Guinea and WCS on the infrastructure pathway.

重要的是，我們正在總體指導範圍內吸收通膨壓力。對於 24 世紀和 25 世紀，我們預計這一數字將增至 90 億美元至 100 億美元，其中每年增長 30 億美元。而且，正如我們在研討會上所說，西芒杜佔未來 3 年前瞻性成長資本支出的 45% 左右。但正如我之前提到的，成長投資高度依賴承諾的時機。如果我們無法開發增值選項，我們將遵循我們的資本配置框架。西芒杜就是一個明顯的例子。它包含在我們的資本指引中，但我們首先需要與我們的合資夥伴、幾內亞政府和 WCS 就基礎設施路徑達成協議。

Now let's take a look at the balance sheet. We maintained our financial strength, ending the year with net debt of $4.2 billion compared with net cash of $1.6 billion at the end of 2021. The movement reflected, in part, our acquisitions of TRQ and Rincon. This balance sheet strength enables us to run our business consistently and maintain investment regardless of where we are in the cycle. We do not have a net debt target but have a principles-based approach to anchor the balance sheet around a single A credit rating.

現在讓我們來看看資產負債表。我們維持了財務實力，到年底淨債務為 42 億美元，而 2021 年底淨現金為 16 億美元。這項變更在一定程度上反映了我們對 TRQ 和 Rincon 的收購。這種資產負債表優勢使我們能夠持續經營業務並保持投資，無論我們處於週期的哪個階段。我們沒有淨債務目標，但有基於原則的方法將資產負債表錨定在單一 A 信用評級周圍。

Finally, the dividend. We have declared a 60% payout for the full year. This equates to $8 billion and is our second highest ordinary dividend ever. Going forward, we will continue to review whether additional returns are appropriate in line with our policy of supplementing the ordinary dividend in periods of strong earnings and cash generation. We have remained very consistent with our shareholder returns policy, which has now been in place for 7 years. The dividend remains a core part of our equity story, which we see as paramount for maintaining discipline. Our financial strength means that we can accelerate our decarbonization, reinvest for growth and continue to pay attractive dividends through the cycle.

最後是股息。我們已宣布全年支付 60%。這相當於 80 億美元，是我們有史以來第二高的普通股息。展望未來，我們將繼續審查額外回報是否合適，以符合我們在獲利和現金產生強勁時期補充普通股息的政策。我們始終堅持股東回報政策，該政策現已實施七年。股息仍然是我們股票故事的核心部分，我們認為這對於維持紀律至關重要。我們的財務實力意味著我們可以加速脫碳、再投資以促進成長，並在整個週期中繼續支付有吸引力的股息。

And with that, let me hand over to Bold in Mongolia.

接下來，請讓我將任務交給蒙古的博爾德。

Thanks, Peter. I hope you can hear me. I'm currently the Mongolia with our team celebrating Tsagaan Sar, Mongolian Lunar New Year. During this holiday, we Mongolians celebrated by visiting and paying respect to our elders, sharing our achievements of the past year with pride and talking about our plans and dreams for the future. Today, I'm talking to you live 1,300 meters below the surface next to drawbell 18 of this world-class underground development. I'm thrilled by the immense progress we have made in developing this true technological model that will generate value for our investors and stakeholders for generations to come.

謝謝，彼得。我希望你能聽到我的聲音。我目前在蒙古，與我們的團隊一起慶祝蒙古農曆新年 Tsagaan Sar。在這個節日里，我們蒙古人透過拜訪和敬拜長者來慶祝，自豪地分享過去一年的成就，談論未來的計劃和夢想。今天，我在這個世界級地下開發案 18 號放礦鐘旁的地表以下 1,300 公尺處與您交談。我對我們在開發這種真正的技術模型方面取得的巨大進展感到興奮，該模型將為我們的投資者和利益相關者的子孫後代創造價值。

2022 was a significant year for Oyu Tolgoi. In January last year, we achieved a mutual understanding and agreement with the government of Mongolia on a number of issues that have caused friction for many years. As a result, Jakob and Prime Minister, Oyun-Erdene stood side-by-side and together initiated the start of our underground caving operations. In June '22, we completed construction of the first drawbell, and since then, we have completed 27, bringing forward first sustainable production to the first quarter of this year. This means that the underground mine will start producing ore and generating revenues. It will take time for the underground mine to reach its full potential, but it is a huge milestone for investors, employees, our partners and my home country. This is a truly national achievement for Mongolia.

2022 年對奧尤陶勒蓋來說是重要的一年。去年1月，我們與蒙古政府就一些多年來產生摩擦的問題達成了相互理解和一致。結果，雅各布和總理奧雲額爾德尼並肩站在一起，共同啟動了我們的地下探洞作業。 22 年 6 月，我們完成了第一個拉鐘的建造，此後，我們已完成了 27 個，將首次永續生產提前到了今年第一季。這意味著地下礦將開始生產礦石並產生收入。地下礦場需要一段時間才能充分發揮其潛力，但這對投資者、員工、我們的合作夥伴和我的祖國來說都是一個巨大的里程碑。這對蒙古來說是真正的國家成就。

In December '22, we completed the acquisition of Turquoise Hill Resources, which doubles our attributable volumes of copper and gold from Oyu Tolgoi going forward. But just as importantly, it gives us a direct shareholding in the business to work more closely with our partner, (inaudible). We are now entering a critical period of observation over the next 12 months to learn how the cave behaves.

22 年 12 月，我們完成了對 Turquoise Hill Resources 的收購，這使得我們從 Oyu Tolgoi 獲得的銅和金的權益量增加了一倍。但同樣重要的是，它使我們能夠直接持有該業務的股份，以便與我們的合作夥伴更密切地合作（聽不清楚）。我們現在正進入未來 12 個月的關鍵觀察期，以了解洞穴的行為。

Block cave mining is complex. Our success rests on cutting-edge cave monitoring data and collection systems together with disciplined execution that benefits from our 25 years of block caving experience in Rio Tinto. Block caving always has risk in terms of footprint stability and how the cave propagates, whether it goes too fast or too slow or stalls. But our platforms give us an integrated view of the cave, offering early insights into potential problems and allow us to respond more quickly. All early indicators concerning cave propagation and seismicity suggests that we are tracking well on cave development.

塊洞開採十分複雜。我們的成功取決於尖端的洞穴監測數據和收集系統以及嚴格的執行力，這得益於我們在力拓 25 年的區塊崩落經驗。塊體崩落在足跡穩定性和洞穴傳播方式方面始終存在風險，無論是速度太快、太慢還是停滯。但我們的平台為我們提供了洞穴的綜合視圖，提供對潛在問題的早期洞察，並使我們能夠更快地做出反應。所有有關洞穴傳播和地震活動的早期指標都表明我們正在很好地追蹤洞穴的發展。

Other panels of the underground mine are progressing despite challenges. We were severely impacted by COVID-19 restrictions on the movement of people and global logistical challenges. We had to wait 9 months to mobilize our shaft sinking experts from South Africa during 2021 and 2022. And at times, we had to reduce our site population by more than 50%, where the average miner spent over 3 months out of the year in quarantine. Nevertheless, we responded with resilience and continued our progress. The remaining panels of the underground mine, Panels 1 and 2, are continuing with their design optimization and development based on data and learnings gathered from Panel 0. Shaft #4 passed 500 meters in depth and Shaft #3 400 meters underway to approximately 1,100 meters to support future production volumes. And the conveyor to surface is now around 30% complete.

儘管面臨挑戰，地下礦井的其他面板仍在取得進展。我們受到了新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 人員流動限制和全球物流挑戰的嚴重影響。 We had to wait 9 months to mobilize our shaft sinking experts from South Africa during 2021 and 2022. And at times, we had to reduce our site population by more than 50%, where the average miner spent over 3 months out of the year in檢疫.儘管如此，我們仍以韌性應對並持續取得進展。地下礦井的剩餘面板（面板1 和麵板2）正在繼續根據面板0 收集的數據和經驗進行設計優化和開發。#4 礦井深度已超過500 米，#3 礦井深度已達400 米，深度約為1,100米以支持未來的產量。至地面的輸送機現已完成約 30%。

We are committed investors in Mongolia. Our acquisition of Turquoise Hill and ongoing investment in Oyu Tolgoi demonstrates our commitment and belief in Mongolia as an investment destination. We'll continue to work with the government, and there is a commitment from both sides to work through any past, current or future issues with patience and respect. I'm really encouraged by the progress and open dialogue. Mongolia has a lot to offer as an investment destination, and we look forward to welcome you investors during the year to visit the underground and to celebrate our achievement of commencement of underground production. Our talented workforce is 97% Mongolian, and we have over 850 local suppliers, of which 100 are from the Gobi.

我們是蒙古的堅定投資者。我們對 Turquoise Hill 的收購以及對奧尤陶勒蓋的持續投資表明了我們對蒙古作為投資目的地的承諾和信念。我們將繼續與政府合作，雙方都承諾以耐心和尊重的態度解決過去、當前或未來的任何問題。我對所取得的進展和公開對話感到非常鼓舞。蒙古作為投資目的地可以提供很多東西，我們期待歡迎各位投資者在年內參觀地下並慶祝我們開始地下生產的成就。我們的優秀員工隊伍中有 97% 是蒙古族，我們擁有超過 850 家當地供應商，其中 100 家來自戈壁。

In the coming years, you will see a significant wave of Mongolians taking their place as part of the global mining expert community. We now have almost 100 Mongolian employees working across our product groups in other jurisdictions from the United States, to Madagascar and Australia. It has been a seminal year for our history in Mongolia, but 2023 will be an even bigger one. Ten years after the open pit first exported product to customers, we are perfectly positioned to begin to realize the true value of Oyu Tolgoi through an aligned partnership with our government partners. I could not be prouder.

在未來幾年中，您將看到大量蒙古人成為全球採礦專家社群的一部分。現在，我們在美國、馬達加斯加和澳洲等其他司法管轄區的產品組中擁有近 100 名蒙古員工。對於蒙古的歷史來說，這是具有開創性的一年，但 2023 年將是更重要的一年。露天礦場首次向客戶出口產品十年後，我們已做好充分準備，透過與政府合作夥伴的一致合作，開始實現奧尤陶勒蓋的真正價值。我感到非常自豪。

Delivering the TRQ acquisition and the underground mine is part of our strategy to grow in copper. We have an ambition to double annual copper out by end of the decade and have an interest in 2 of top 5 copper assets globally by 2030, according to Wood Mac. With the energy transition in the U.S. and the U.S. being short on copper cathode, we are well placed to provide U.S. domestic supply. Kennecott is 1 of 2 operating smelters and is an important strategic asset to us.

完成 TRQ 收購和地下礦場是我們銅礦成長策略的一部分。 Wood Mac 表示，我們的目標是到本世紀末將銅產量翻一番，並在 2030 年之前對全球 5 大銅資產中的 2 個持有興趣。隨著美國能源轉型和美國陰極銅短缺，我們有能力提供美國國內供應。肯尼科特是兩家正在營運的冶煉廠之一，對我們來說是一項重要的戰略資產。

We have approved investment to start underground mining and expand our copper production and provide critical minerals such as tellurium. Resolution in the established Arizona copper triangle is vital to the U.S. to bringing on more copper supply and critical minerals to support its energy transition. We continue to work with the indigenous people, the U.S. Forest Service and local and federal governments. And we won't to stop there. The ambition to double our production does not include some of our larger investment or expansion cases or Nuton.

我們已批准投資啟動地下採礦、擴大銅產量並提供碲等關鍵礦物。解決已建立的亞利桑那州銅三角對於美國提供更多銅供應和關鍵礦產以支持其能源轉型至關重要。我們繼續與原住民、美國林業局以及地方和聯邦政府合作。我們不會就此止步。我們產量翻倍的雄心壯志不包括我們或紐頓的一些較大投資或擴張案例。

Nuton is the product of over 30 years in-house R&D and is a vehicle to copper growth through our proprietary bio-leaching technology. Nuton has the potential to deliver copper recoveries of around 80% from traditionally hard-to-mine and process primary sulfides such as chalcopyrite, providing access to the green and brownfield ore bodies around the world. It promises to deliver strong ESG credentials, has a lower footprint, uses less water and energy and has a very low capital intensity producing 99.9% copper cathode.

Nuton 是 30 多年內部研發的產物，是透過我們專有的生物浸出技術來實現銅生長的工具。紐頓有潛力從傳統上難以開採和加工的原生硫化物（如黃銅礦）中獲得約 80% 的銅回收率，從而為世界各地的綠地和棕地礦體提供了途徑。它承諾提供強大的 ESG 資格，佔地面積較小，使用較少的水和能源，並且資本密集度非常低，可生產 99.9% 的陰極銅。

We have seen a lot of interest in looking to have a pilot site up and running in 2023. I'm incredibly excited by the opportunities within our portfolio today. We have set our course in 2022 and '23 will require patience and execution discipline as we ramp up our world-class OT underground operation, a most immediate source of growth tonnes. I look forward to updating you on progress.

我們看到很多人對尋求在 2023 年建立並運行試點站點感興趣。我對今天我們的投資組合中的機會感到非常興奮。我們已經設定了 2022 年和 23 年的路線，因為我們將加強世界級的 OT 地下作業，這是最直接的噸增長來源，因此需要耐心和執行紀律。我期待向您通報最新進展。

Back to you, Jakob.

回到你身邊，雅各。

Well, thank you, Bold. Really appreciate you taking time to connect with us here from Mongolia. Let me change tact from the exciting copper development. When I became Chief Executive, I introduced 4 objectives: to become the best operator, to strive for impeccable ESG, to excel in development and to strengthen our social license. The objectives, coupled with our values of care, courage and curiosity are the foundation of our culture and guide our people day in and day out.

嗯，謝謝你，大膽。非常感謝您抽出時間從蒙古與我們聯繫。讓我改變一下令人興奮的銅發展的策略。當我成為執行長時，我提出了4個目標：成為最好的營運商、爭取無可挑剔的ESG、卓越的發展以及加強我們的社會許可。這些目標，加上我們關心、勇氣和好奇的價值觀，是我們文化的基礎，日復一日地引導著我們的員工。

In 2021, we launched our strategy with climate at its heart, which sets out the long-term pathway for Rio, supported by the objectives. The final piece late last year was the launch of our purpose. Finding better ways speaks to our drive for both innovation and continuous improvement. It emphasizes how solutions are delivered with impeccable ESG performance. To provide the materials the world's needs connects our contribution to everyday life, our customers, the communities where we operate and society at large.

2021 年，我們啟動了以氣候為核心的策略，為裡約制定了長期路徑，並得到了目標的支持。去年年底的最後一件作品是我們的目標的啟動。尋找更好的方法體現了我們對創新和持續改進的驅動力。它強調如何以無可挑剔的 ESG 性能交付解決方案。提供世界所需的材料將我們對日常生活、客戶、我們經營所在的社區和整個社會的貢獻連結起來。

There's always more to be done, but we are on the right track. In 2023, we will continue to focus on lasting chains to make our workplace a safer, more inclusive environment. Implementing the recommendations of the Everyday Respect report is absolutely crucial to driving this change, but it goes broader and deeper. We are embedding a change in mindset and behaviors throughout the organization. This is very clear to me as I visit our sites.

總是有更多的事情要做，但我們正走在正確的軌道上。 2023年，我們將繼續專注於持久的鏈條，使我們的工作場所成為一個更安全、更包容的環境。實施《日常尊重》報告的建議對於推動這項變革絕對至關重要，但它的範圍更廣、更深。我們正在整個組織內推行觀念和行為的改變。當我訪問我們的網站時，這一點對我來說非常清楚。

Recently, I went to Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Marandoo in the Pilbara, and I was so encouraged by the honest and open conversation we had and proud of how the teams are working together to each make a difference every day. We will spend time listening and learning from our people, communities and partners as we continue to build better relationships by finding new and better ways to work together, for example, through co-management of country in Australia. I also visited the Western Range project, where we have commenced early works at our first codesigned iron ore mine. The approach we are taking with this project deepens our relationships with the traditional owners, the Yinhawangka people and with our long-term partner and customer, Baowu.

最近，我去了皮爾巴拉(Pilbara) 的湯姆·普萊斯(Tom Price)、帕拉布爾杜(Paraburdoo) 和馬蘭杜(Marandoo)，我們進行的誠實和開放的對話讓我深受鼓舞，並為團隊如何共同努力每天發揮作用而感到自豪。我們將花時間傾聽和學習我們的人民、社區和合作夥伴的意見，透過尋找新的、更好的合作方式（例如透過共同管理澳洲國家）來繼續建立更好的關係。我還參觀了 Western Range 項目，我們已經開始了第一個共同設計的鐵礦的早期工作。我們在這個計畫中採取的方法加深了我們與傳統業主、因哈旺卡人民以及我們的長期合作夥伴和客戶寶武的關係。

2022 was about progressing our strategy and delivering against our 4 objectives to strengthen our existing assets and build our portfolio for the future. We are on a multiyear journey but the progress we have made already gives me confidence that the best is ahead of us.

2022 年的目標是推進我們的策略並實現我們的 4 個目標，以增強我們的現有資產並為未來建立我們的投資組合。我們正處於多年的旅程中，但我們所取得的進展已經讓我相信，最好的就在我們前面。

In 2023, we will continue to empower and unleash the quality of our people through the deployment of our Safe Production System and by building a positive culture. We will create options to deliver future value and growth with projects like Rincon and Simandou. And as Bold just shared, we will reach sustainable production at our Oyu Tolgoi before the end of this quarter. We will focus the pathways we have mapped to decarbonize our business, working with a range of partners to innovate and develop solutions. And as we mark 150 years of Rio Tinto, we reflect on our past the role it has played in making us who we are today and helping us achieve our purpose in the future.

2023年，我們將繼續透過安全生產系統的部署和建立積極的文化來增強和釋放員工的品質。我們將透過 Rincon 和 Simandou 等項目創造各種選項來實現未來價值和成長。正如 Bold 剛剛分享的那樣，我們將在本季度末之前在奧尤陶勒蓋實現可持續生產。我們將重點關注已製定的業務脫碳路徑，與一系列合作夥伴合作創新和開發解決方案。在紀念力拓成立 150 週年之際，我們回顧過去，它在造就我們今天的成就並幫助我們實現未來目標方面所發揮的作用。

All the materials we provide are needed for today's world. And looking to the future, the demand will only grow driven by ongoing urbanization and the energy transition. The demand we will face through 2035 will grow around 3.7% per annum with around half stemming from the energy transition. That is why our strategy is about growing in the materials needed such as copper, lithium, aluminum and high-quality iron ore.

我們提供的所有材料都是當今世界所需要的。展望未來，持續的城市化和能源轉型將推動需求的成長。到 2035 年，我們面臨的需求將以每年約 3.7% 的速度成長，其中約一半來自能源轉型。這就是為什麼我們的策略是發展銅、鋰、鋁和優質鐵礦等所需材料。

A key task for our industry will be to find better ways to provide for those needs at pace, reliably and with a low carbon footprint. And to work with our customers to reduce the impact of emissions across the entire value chain. This will be challenging, but we're up for it. We know we can't solve all these challenges alone so we are partnering with others, ramping up our technical skills and building capabilities for some of the bigger challenges we face.

我們行業的一項關鍵任務是找到更好的方法來快速、可靠且低碳地滿足這些需求。並與我們的客戶合作，減少排放對整個價值鏈的影響。這將具有挑戰性，但我們已經做好準備。我們知道我們無法獨自解決所有這些挑戰，因此我們正在與其他人合作，提高我們的技術技能並為我們面臨的一些更大挑戰建立能力。

As I've noted before, it is a multi-decade journey. As we look ahead, the materials we provide are crucial to the world and the long-term outlook is attractive.

正如我之前指出的，這是一個長達數十年的旅程。展望未來，我們提供的材料對世界至關重要，長期前景極具吸引力。

In summary, 2022 was all about building an even stronger Rio Tinto by investing in the health of our business and shaping our portfolio for the future while also delivering during the year. We are uniquely positioned to accelerate the decarbonization of our portfolio, to invest and grow in the commodities needed for the transition and to continue to pay attractive dividends. We are progressing with purpose as we are building a stronger Rio Tinto for the long term.

總之，2022 年的重點是透過投資我們業務的健康發展並為未來塑造我們的投資組合，打造一個更強大的力拓集團，同時在這一年中實現目標。我們擁有獨特的優勢，可以加速我們投資組合的脫碳，投資和發展轉型所需的大宗商品，並繼續支付有吸引力的股息。我們正在有目標地前進，從長遠來看，我們正在建立一個更強大的力拓集團。

Thank you. We are now happy to take questions. Menno, over to you.

謝謝。我們現在很樂意回答問題。門諾，交給你了。

Thank you, Jakob, Peter and Bold. And clearly, the financial market is spending too much time on conspiracy theories. No, this is not set in scene. This is not in a shed outside London. This is 1.3 kilometers below ground, about 10,000 miles away from London. This is how more than this mine is, and we hope to take you there during this year.

謝謝雅各、彼得和博爾德。顯然，金融市場在陰謀論上花了太多時間。不，這不是在場景中設定的。這不是在倫敦郊外的棚屋裡。這裡位於地下 1.3 公里處，距離倫敦約 10,000 英里。這不僅僅是這個礦場，我們希望今年能帶您去那裡。

So we'll take 2 from the floor here and then we'll take 2 from the phone. Bob, can you start please?

所以我們將從這裡的地板上取 2，然後從電話中取 2。鮑勃，你可以開始了嗎？

I'm struck by 3 of your future options revolve around science, if I think about Nuton, if I think about Rincon, if I think about ELYSIS. These are things that are scaling from the lab to pilots. Talk about how you manage science success and risk in the portfolio and give us some sense of odds. Will all 3 work? How will they progress? Which one are you betting on?

如果我想到 Nuton、如果我想到 Rincon、如果我想到 ELYSIS，你們未來的 3 個圍繞科學的選擇讓我感到震驚。這些東西正在從實驗室擴展到試點。談談您如何管理投資組合中的科學成功和風險，並給我們一些可能性的感覺。 3 個都可以嗎？他們將如何進步？你賭哪一個？

Yes. So thank you. We are -- the things that we are sharing here is, of course, the ones that we really believe in. But it starts much earlier. And I think a couple of things are really interesting to see is, first of all, we have a search facility outside Melbourne, Bundoora and that was inaugurated, I think, in 1992. And now it really, really starts delivering. Just to remind you of the time it takes, I hope you saw our capital market update, I did make a point out of inviting our Chief Scientist, Nigel Steward, to come and talk to you. And talk about what we are doing because 1 of the things I certainly observe is, we are probably one of the companies that has most research and development people, and we've had that for a long time. And some of the things we are benefiting from now things that has been in the making for a very long time.

是的。所以謝謝。當然，我們在這裡分享的東西是我們真正相信的東西。但它開始得更早。我認為有幾件事確實很有趣，首先，我們在墨爾本郊外的邦杜拉 (Bundoora) 設有一個搜索設施，我認為該設施於 1992 年落成。現在它真的、真的開始交付了。只是為了提醒您需要時間，我希望您看到我們的資本市場更新，我確實邀請了我們的首席科學家 Nigel Steward 來與您交談。談論我們正在做的事情，因為我確實觀察到的一件事是，我們可能是擁有最多研發人員的公司之一，我們已經這樣做很久了。我們現在受益的一些事情已經醞釀了很長時間。

But we have actually decided to double down on it. And we hadn't had a Chief Scientist for many years. We appointed one, and we are really strengthening the development so that we will continue to see those new things coming. I'm absolutely convinced that ELYSIS will work. We just need to figure out how to scale it up. It works in the lab, it works at a reasonable scale. It is producing.

但我們實際上已經決定加倍努力。我們已經很多年沒有首席科學家了。我們任命了一位，我們正在真正加強開發，以便我們繼續看到這些新事物的出現。我絕對相信 ELYSIS 會起作用。我們只需要弄清楚如何擴大規模。它在實驗室中有效，並以合理的規模發揮作用。它正在生產。

The other things, the things that we're talking about here, I do think that they will work. But I will say one area that you didn't talk too much of what ELYSIS is in a way, but the whole decarbonization actually requires an awful lot of technology development. Some of the things are easy, just renewable plug-in if it's electricity needs, but some of the processing fundamentally needs new processing. So it has never been more important for us to get value out of research and development.

其他的事情，我們在這裡討論的事情，我確實認為它們會起作用。但我要說的是，在某種程度上，你並沒有過多談論 ELYSIS 是什麼，但整個脫碳實際上需要大量的技術開發。有些事情很簡單，如果需要電力，只需可再生插件，但有些處理從根本上需要新的處理。因此，從研發中獲取價值對我們來說從未如此重要。

Jason? Then we'll go to the line.

傑森？然後我們就去排隊。

So Jason Fairclough, Bank of America. Congrats on Oyu Tolgoi and it's great to see the asset coming good. I think Menno and I were there in 2016. I guess I'm struck by the fact that you're doubling down on what -- on paper looks like a great asset. But it's in a country which is sandwiched between 2 other countries where, to be frank, the relationship with the West is distinctly worse than it was in 2016. So how do you think about that exposure in the context of Rio Tinto?

美國銀行的 Jason Fairclough 就是這樣。恭喜奧尤陶勒蓋，很高興看到資產進展順利。我想 Menno 和我在 2016 年就在那裡。我想我對你們在紙面上看起來像是一筆巨大資產的情況上加倍投資這一事實感到震驚。但坦白說，這個國家夾在另外兩個國家之間，與西方的關係明顯比 2016 年更糟。那麼您如何看待力拓的這種風險敞口？

Bold, you obviously have a lot of passion for that question. Do you want to start?

大膽，你顯然對這個問題充滿熱情。你想開始？

Yes. No, look, I'm very biased, of course. And I think you have to go back into history on what Mongolia is and what Mongolia isn't. Mongolia is a parliamentary republic and it's a parliamentary democracy that has embraced Western style and our democracy way of governance about 30 years ago. And I think you would find that we are an island of democracy, obviously, with very 2 powerful neighbors. And our government's policy is supporting actively the third neighbor policy, which is vital for our strategic geopolitical independence and the position in the region. Now I think the risk is everywhere -- when you look at the risk in many parts of Western world and countries, and I don't think Mongolia is any different. And I would ask you, is U.K. or U.S. any different than Mongolia from a political risk at the moment?

是的。不，聽著，我當然很有偏見。我認為你必須回顧歷史，了解蒙古是什麼、蒙古不是什麼。蒙古是一個議會制共和國，是一個議會民主制國家，大約30年前就接受了西方風格和我們的民主治理方式。我想你會發現我們顯然是一個民主島嶼，有兩個非常強大的鄰居。我國政府的政策是積極支持第三鄰國政策，這對我們的戰略地緣政治獨立和在區域的地位至關重要。現在我認為風險無所不在——當你看看西方世界許多地方和國家的風險時，我認為蒙古沒有什麼不同。我想問你，英國或美國目前的政治風險與蒙古有什麼不同嗎？

Yes.

是的。

But I would say one thing, Jason, if I may add one thing. I do feel we feel very comfortable about how we are investing in Mongolia. And one little piece of evidence is that it's less than 10 days ago that we did get the reprofiling of the project financing now going well beyond our, what do you call it, completion guarantee. So a whole raft of banks, including the IFC, EBRD, et cetera, have signed off new credits into Mongolia. And I think that's just a vote of confidence.

但傑森，如果我可以補充一件事的話，我想說一件事。我確實覺得我們對在蒙古的投資方式感到非常放心。一個小證據是，不到 10 天前，我們確實得到了專案融資的重新配置，現在遠遠超出了我們所謂的完工保證。因此，包括國際金融公司、歐洲復興開發銀行等在內的眾多銀行都簽署了向蒙古提供的新信貸。我認為這只是一次信任投票。

Just a follow-up, if I could. The -- in terms of the asset once upon a time, Friedland used to talk about this as a string of copper pearls across the desert. How are you thinking about life beyond 2030? Is there a lot of optionality regionally?

如果可以的話，只是一個後續行動。就資產而言，弗里德蘭曾幾何時將其稱為沙漠中的一串銅珍珠。您如何看待 2030 年以後的生活？地區選擇空間大嗎？

Bold?

大膽的？

Yes. Yes, definitely not looking to discover the next OT because we have our hands full with this one. So it's true marvel of an ore body of 30 million tonnes of copper and with this very high grades. It's really -- there's a lot of potential for us to maximize the production. And there's definitely a few things I will be hitting Peter and Jakob up in terms of investment. But we're not looking to drill or discovering next OT at the moment. We have to make sure we execute this one properly.

是的。是的，絕對不想發現下一個 OT，因為我們正忙著這個。因此，這是一個蘊藏 3000 萬噸銅且品位如此之高的礦體的真正奇蹟。我們確實有很大的潛力可以最大限度地提高產量。在投資方面，我肯定會向彼得和雅各提出一些建議。但我們目前並不打算鑽探或發現下一個 OT。我們必須確保正確執行這項任務。

Okay. Let's go to the line. I'll take 2 from the line and come back here. There's plenty of time. Operator, please, first question from the line.

好的。我們去排隊吧。我會從隊列中取出 2 個然後回到這裡。有充足的時間。接線員，請回答線路中的第一個問題。

Your first question from the phone line comes from the line of Rahul Anand from Morgan Stanley Australia.

您接到的第一個問題是來自澳洲摩根士丹利的拉胡爾‧阿南德 (Rahul Anand)。

I have a question for Bold, just to make sure the communications work okay in the new mine. Bold, just considering you're in Panel 0 now, I just wanted to perhaps see how the ground conditions are progressing. That was a key issue in the past, especially looking at Panel 1 and 2. Are you seeing any signs of dilution? If you can give us a bit of an update into how Panel 1 and 2 are looking as well now that you're mining in Panel 0. And I'll come back with a follow-up.

我有一個問題想問 Bold，只是為了確保新礦井的通訊正常。大膽地說，考慮到你現在在第 0 組，我只是想看看地面狀況進展如何。這在過去是一個關鍵問題，尤其是看第 1 組和第 2 組。您是否看到任何稀釋的跡象？既然您正在面板 0 中進行挖掘，請告訴我們面板 1 和麵板 2 的一些最新情況。我會回來進行後續跟進。

Yes. No, thank you. We're obviously at the moment in drawbell 27 of Panel 0, so very early days. And we do need to make sure we have a much better understanding of the cave behavior before we can get into the next stages. So the learnings, obviously, from Panel 0 have been definitely incorporated into the learnings around geotech on Panel 1 and 2.

是的。不，謝謝。顯然，我們現在正處於第 0 組的第 27 號區域，所以還處於早期階段。在進入下一階段之前，我們確實需要確保對洞穴行為有更好的了解。因此，顯然，從第 0 組中學到的知識已經明確地融入第 1 組和第 2 組中有關岩土技術的學習中。

We're still developing Panel 1. We're going at a pretty productive rate at the moment. I would say that one of the things that we have done is created a digital twin through a joint venture with Palantir that lets us understand the cave propagation and the sensors we have. And it's a foundry that is the single version of the truth that gives our decision-makers, the real-time data and within 15 minutes, they exactly know where the pressure points are and et cetera, and where we could see some movements. So definitely something we're watching. It's early days. I just want to be careful and cautious as we build confidence throughout the year.

我們仍在開發第 1 組。目前我們的工作效率相當高。我想說的是，我們所做的事情之一是透過與 Palantir 的合資企業創建了數位孿生，讓我們了解洞穴傳播和我們擁有的感測器。這是一家鑄造廠，它是事實的單一版本，為我們的決策者提供即時數據，在 15 分鐘內，他們確切地知道壓力點在哪裡等等，以及我們可以在哪裡看到一些動作。所以這絕對是我們正在關注的事情。現在還早。我只是想在我們全年建立信心的過程中保持謹慎和謹慎。

So the follow-up, staying with copper. I noted that the ore reserves at Kennecott have increased as well by circa 70% post the completion of the PFS. I just wanted to understand broader plans around the asset and where do you see the key upside for this one.

因此，後續仍以銅為主。我注意到，PFS 完成後，肯尼科特的礦石儲量也增加了約 70%。我只是想了解有關該資產的更廣泛計劃，以及您認為該資產的關鍵優勢在哪裡。

Yes. Look, I think Kennecott is one of those ever expanding brownfield expansions because there's always ore around the walls and you could always create optionality in terms of the open pit expansion. But we're definitely looking much deeper into the underground and the integrated scans project, which we got a CapEx approval for. We're going underground and touching the ore body and obviously, that is a much higher grade than the open pit.

是的。聽著，我認為肯尼科特是不斷擴張的棕地擴張之一，因為牆壁周圍總是有礦石，而且你總是可以在露天礦擴張方面創造選擇性。但我們肯定會更深入地研究地下和整合掃描項目，我們已經獲得了資本支出批准。我們要進入地下並接觸礦體，顯然，這比露天礦的品位要高得多。

So we're pretty excited about that, but it's still early days. I think the lesson from OT is you want to get underground, you want to touch the rock, you want to see what the ground conditions are before we can give any definitive views around the ore body development. So our key prerogative is Kennecott is a long-lived strategic asset. There's still a lot of ore in the ore body. So we intend to run it for years to come.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮，但現在還為時過早。我認為 OT 的教訓是，你想要進入地下，你想要觸摸岩石，你想要看看地面條件如何，然後我們才能對礦體開發給出任何明確的看法。因此，我們的關鍵特權是肯尼科特是一項長期戰略資產。礦體中尚存有大量礦石。所以我們打算在未來幾年繼續運行它。

We will now go to the next question. And the question comes from the line of Paul Young from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在進入下一個問題。這個問題來自高盛的保羅楊（Paul Young）。

Maybe the first question for Bold. Bold, I'm just looking at the time frame that you've outlined, I think it's Slide 20 for OT. And I've noticed that the conveyor to surface will be completed before the vent shafts, Shaft 3 and 4. Can you start ramping up the underground before you complete Shaft 3 and 4 if the convey is complete?

也許是大膽的第一個問題。粗體，我只是在看你概述的時間範圍，我認為這是加班的幻燈片 20。我注意到，到地面的輸送機將在通風井（3 號和 4 號井）之前完成。如果輸送完成，您可以在完成 3 號和 4 號井之前開始在地下爬升嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Paul. Absolutely. The answer is yes. We have enough ventilation here. And look, we're not going to be able to ramp up to fully the 95,000 tonne capacity per day. But the ramp-up is not a 12-month progress. It will take 2, 3, 4 years potentially to reach that its full potential. But I think I don't want to jinx it, Paul. I think we want to manage this very carefully. But at the moment, for this year's production guidance, we're very comfortable with the ramp-up schedule.

是的。謝謝你，保羅。絕對地。答案是肯定的。我們這裡有足夠的通風。看吧，我們無法完全提高到每天 95,000 噸的產能。但提升並不是 12 個月的進展。可能需要 2、3、4 年才能充分發揮其潛力。但我想我不想搞砸它，保羅。我認為我們要非常小心地管理這個問題。但目前，對於今年的生產指導，我們對產能計畫非常滿意。

I was thinking 5-year ramp-up, so I'll take 2, 3 or 4. That's great. Next question, maybe switching to Peter and on the cost front. And just focusing, Peter, on the aluminum costs. I mean, you're seeing the same pressures as your peers in the industry. But I just want to zone on the alumina costs. I know caustic soda and gas prices were higher in the period. But the alumina assets actually made, I think, $200 million of EBITDA and costs were $430 a tonne. So I'm just wondering if there's anything to call out there on why the costs were so high in alumina or if they can reverse this half.

我原本考慮 5 年的提升期，所以我會選擇 2 年、3 年或 4 年。那太好了。下一個問題，也許轉向彼得和成本方面。彼得，只關注鋁成本。我的意思是，您面臨著與業內同行相同的壓力。但我只想關注氧化鋁成本。我知道當時燒鹼和天然氣的價格較高。但我認為，氧化鋁資產實際上產生了 2 億美元的 EBITDA，成本為每噸 430 美元。所以我只是想知道是否有什麼需要指出的，為什麼氧化鋁的成本如此之高，或者他們是否可以扭轉這一半。

Paul, no, thanks, and you're absolutely right. There was a pretty tough second half of the year for alumina. I mean, it was price, the price of alumina following the metal price down. It absolutely was the caustic. And we quote the market prices coming in a half year. Some of that lags when it comes through the system, into our costs. And then the third factor was -- last year was actually a pretty tough year for the Gladstone refineries. They didn't perform, I think, as we would want them to do. There was some instability, and that was the third factor. But Paul, there wasn't anything else other than that. And as you say, a bit of a gas price come through. But other than that, coal and gas, caustic and the market price were the key factors.

保羅，不，謝謝，你說得完全正確。今年下半年，氧化鋁產業經歷了相當艱難的時期。我的意思是，這是價格，隨著金屬價格下跌，氧化鋁的價格。這絕對是腐蝕性的。我們報的是半年後的市場價格。其中一些在通過系統時會滯後於我們的成本。第三個因素是──去年對格拉斯頓煉油廠來說其實是非常艱難的一年。我認為他們的表現沒有達到我們希望的那樣。存在一些不穩定因素，這是第三個因素。但保羅，除此之外沒有別的事了。正如你所說，汽油價格會受到一定影響。但除此之外，煤炭和天然氣、燒鹼和市場價格是關鍵因素。

But let me -- allow me to tell you that, Paul, we're still optimistic about our aluminum business because you've got to look at how hard it is for competition as well and think about the world, and the Western world needs a lot of aluminum and that needs to be produced. So the world will find this balance. We are still uniquely placed, particularly with a very low carbon footprint we have from most of our aluminum assets. But I have to admit, the last 6 months, they were tough.

但是，讓我——請允許我告訴你，保羅，我們仍然對我們的鋁業務持樂觀態度，因為你必須看看競爭有多困難，並思考世界，西方世界需要需要生產大量的鋁。所以世界將會找到這種平衡。我們仍然處於獨特的地位，特別是我們的大部分鋁資產的碳足跡非常低。但我不得不承認，過去六個月，他們很艱難。

Thank you. Just, Danielle, and don't worry, we'll get through everybody. I promise.

謝謝。只是，丹妮爾，別擔心，我們會搞定所有人的。我保證。

It's Danielle Chigumira from Credit Suisse. A question around Simandou. So on the framework agreement, how long should we be thinking about for that to be signed? Is it weeks or months or longer? And what's on the critical path in terms of the specifics around the infrastructure agreement and the agreement between the different stakeholders? Like what are the points of contention?

我是瑞士信貸銀行的丹妮爾·奇古米拉。關於西芒杜的問題。那麼關於框架協議，我們應該考慮多長時間才能簽署？是幾週、幾個月還是更長？就基礎設施協議的具體細節以及不同利害關係人之間的協議而言，關鍵路徑是什麼？例如爭論的焦點是什麼？

Thank you. We certainly need to get Bold out of the mine before we can sign. Bold, why don't you take that question?

謝謝。在我們簽約之前，我們當然需要把博爾德從礦井裡救出來。大膽，為什麼不回答這個問題？

Yes. No, look, I think the #1, I guess, objective for us is to work with the government of Guinea and the people of Guinea. It's their resource, they work on their timetable, they have to get comfortable. So we're going to take it one step at a time. We're making great progress. We signed a term sheet in December, now in the final stages of definitive documentation. But it's very important for agreements of this sort to have the utmost transparency and it takes the time for the right expertise to be provided to the government. So we'll progress it as fast as we can provided, obviously, the Guinean Government is comfortable with.

是的。不，我認為我們的第一個目標是與幾內亞政府和幾內亞人民合作。這是他們的資源，他們按照自己的時間表工作，他們必須感到舒適。因此，我們將一步一步地採取行動。我們正在取得巨大進展。我們在 12 月簽署了一份投資意向書，現在正處於最終文件的最後階段。但此類協議具有最大的透明度非常重要，而且向政府提供正確的專業知識需要時間。因此，我們將盡可能快地取得進展，顯然，幾內亞政府對此感到滿意。

And it goes without saying, all of you would love to have cost and schedule. As soon as we finalize agreements, we will, of course, update you all. But it's impossible right now. The team is sitting in Conakry as we speak and are negotiating.

不用說，你們所有人都希望有成本和時間表。一旦我們敲定協議，我們當然會向大家通報最新情況。但現在這是不可能的。當我們講話並進行談判時，團隊正坐在科納克里。

Just one follow-up in iron ore, that's slightly different asset. So in the Pilbara, obviously, you saw significant recovery through the year. Last year, ended up at a great run rate. Could you give a sense like halfway through the quarter now and where you are relative to where you ended up last year? The iron ore -- Pilbara iron ore run rate so far this year.

只是鐵礦石的後續行動，這是一種略有不同的資產。因此，顯然，在皮爾巴拉，您在這一年中看到了顯著的復甦。去年，最終的運行率很高。您能否介紹一下目前本季已過半的情況以及與去年相比的情況？鐵礦石－皮爾巴拉鐵礦石今年迄今的運作情況。

So where we are now halfway through Q1 relative to where we were in Q4. So how are we doing operationally? Is the good trend of Q4 continuing to Q1?

因此，相對於第四季的情況，我們現在處於第一季的中間位置。那麼我們的營運情況如何？ Q4的好趨勢會延續Q1嗎？

Yes. No, look, I went there, as I said here, I've just been visiting a number of mines and spent 2 weeks in Western Australia. We came into the year in a very good -- in a very good shape, really on all fronts, the assets were in a better shape than at the beginning of the year, the projects we finalized last year are working. We're still ramping up on Gudai-Darri, but it's working well. We haven't had the most terrible weather so far. It's -- Q1 is always unpredictable, and I can't tell you exactly how the weather is going to be in the rest of Q1. But we would not -- Peter will not have presented a chart like the chart he presented today unless we felt that we are on a good trend here.

是的。不，看，我去了那裡，正如我在這裡所說的，我剛剛參觀了一些礦山，並在西澳大利亞度過了兩週。我們以非常好的狀態進入了這一年，實際上在各個方面都處於非常好的狀態，資產的狀態比年初更好，我們去年完成的專案正在發揮作用。我們仍在加大 Gudai-Darri 的力度，但效果很好。到目前為止，我們還沒有遇到最糟糕的天氣。第一季總是不可預測的，我無法確切地告訴你第一季剩餘時間的天氣狀況。但我們不會——彼得不會展示像他今天展示的圖表那樣的圖表，除非我們覺得我們處於良好的趨勢。

Dom, please.

多姆，請。

I had a question on the dividend. So Peter, I think you mentioned a modest shift in the dividend distribution in 2022. But I noticed that it's the first year since you enacted the current dividend policy that you haven't paid out more than 60% in total. So should we think about this as a reset towards your thinking towards excess capital distributions? And I suppose specifically, given where the leverage is and the framework for single-A credit, why didn't you pay out more in this period?

我對股息有疑問。 Peter，我認為您提到了 2022 年股息分配的適度變化。但我注意到，這是自您制定當前股息政策以來，您支付總額未超過 60% 的第一年。那麼，我們是否應該將此視為您對過度資本分配的看法的重置？我想具體來說，考慮到槓桿水平和單 A 級信貸的框架，您為什麼在此期間不支付更多費用？

So I mean, Dom, we paid out exactly in line with our policy. So I think we've been really consistent there. In fact, we paid out at the top of that 60% of our policy.

所以我的意思是，Dom，我們完全按照我們的政策支付了費用。所以我認為我們在這方面一直都非常一致。事實上，我們支付了保單 60% 的最高限額。

Now when we do that, then we go around and look at compelling growth, we look at the balance sheet and we look at additional returns. And I think this year, we certainly put money into what we see as compelling growth. I mean, the acquisition of the minorities of TRQ, Rincon, we're keeping, investing in the OT underground. So that was where we put our money. The -- actually, we paid out $8 billion, second half's dividend, and that was on free cash flow of $9 billion. So I think you just expect us to be very consistent with how we apply the policy. And this year, we applied it absolutely at top of our range.

現在，當我們這樣做時，我們會四處尋找引人注目的成長，我們會專注於資產負債表，也會關注額外回報。我認為今年，我們肯定會將資金投入到我們認為引人注目的成長中。我的意思是，我們保留了對 TRQ、Rincon 少數派的收購，投資於地下 OT。所以這就是我們投入資金的地方。事實上，我們支付了 80 億美元的下半年股息，而這是基於 90 億美元的自由現金流。因此，我認為您只是希望我們在應用政策方面保持一致。今年，我們絕對在我們的範圍內應用了它。

Let's go back to the phone for 2 questions. Operator, please question from the line.

讓我們回到電話上回答兩個問題。接線員，請從線路提問。

The next phone question comes from the line of Amos Fletcher from Barclays.

下一個電話問題來自巴克萊銀行的阿莫斯·弗萊徹。

I had a couple of questions for Bold, and just compliments on the Wi-Fi, by the way, very impressive. So on Oyu Tolgoi, I just wanted to ask on the project schedule, it would be helpful to get an update on how far behind schedule Shaft 3 and 4 are. Last time you mentioned, they are around 15 months behind relative to the 2020 technical report. Is that still your best working assumption? And any update on the CapEx as well?

我有幾個問題想問 Bold，順便稱讚一下 Wi-Fi，非常令人印象深刻。因此，在奧尤陶勒蓋，我只想詢問專案進度，如果能了解 3 號和 4 號礦井落後進度的最新情況，將會很有幫助。上次你提到的，相對於 2020 年的技術報告來說，他們大約落後了 15 個月。這仍然是你最好的工作假設嗎？資本支出有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. Look, I think Shaft 3 and 4 are progressing really, really well. I think the one thing I would say, though, is that when we provided the schedule estimate at the time, it had estimated the shaft sinking to commence around June of '21. I mean, reality is we had 9 months of delay. So it kind of gives you a sense of the challenge we face. And oftentimes, we forget COVID. COVID was still around in January of '22. And at the time, there were restrictions on shaft sinkers to be actually to be able to travel. And so Mongolia did not allow inbound travel until, I think, April of '22. So there was a timing of course, on how we manage. So that's roughly -- I think in terms of the productivity, I'm actually very pleased. I was at the bottom of Shaft 3 and 4.

是的。看，我認為 3 號豎井和 4 號豎井進展得非常非常好。不過，我想我要說的一件事是，當我們當時提供進度估算時，它預計豎井下沉將於 21 年 6 月左右開始。我的意思是，現實是我們延遲了 9 個月。所以這讓你感受到我們面臨的挑戰。我們常常忘記新冠病毒。 22 年 1 月，新冠病毒仍然存在。當時，軸沉降片的實際移動受到限制。因此，蒙古直到 22 年 4 月才允許入境旅行。所以當然有一個關於我們如何管理的時間安排。粗略地說，我認為就生產力而言，我實際上非常滿意。我當時在 3 號和 4 號豎井的底部。

Look, I think there they're about 400 or 500 meters, 1,100 meters. The teams are making progress. But that is not our bottleneck. Our ventilation is sufficient. We're working through, obviously, looking at what else to do in terms of mine planning and sequencing, primary crusher 2 and other things. So you should not assume that just because Shaft 3 and 4 that would be automatically that same commensurate delay in production. But everything that we do at the moment is on paper. The #1 priority for this year is to manage the cave and see how the cave propagates. So I just want to be really realistic that this is a year for learning for us, and we'll build confidence as the year goes on.

看，我認為它們大約有 400 或 500 米，1,100 米。球隊正在取得進步。但這不是我們的瓶頸。我們的通風是足夠的。顯然，我們正在研究在礦山規劃和排序、初級破碎機 2 和其他方面還可以做什麼。因此，您不應假設僅僅因為 3 號和 4 號豎井就會自動導致相應的生產延遲。但我們目前所做的一切都只是紙上談兵。今年的第一要務是管理洞穴並觀察洞穴如何傳播。所以我只想現實一點，今年對我們來說是學習的一年，隨著時間的推移，我們將建立信心。

And the next question from the phone line comes from Lyndon Fagan from JPMorgan.

電話線上的下一個問題來自摩根大通的林登·費根。

I just wanted to talk about Slide 22, where you're talking about doubling copper production. Do you mind walking through some of the projects to actually achieve that? And also, what is in that upside bar? And I guess specifically, can you talk about whether a plant expansion at OT is considered in all of that. I've got another question after that as well.

我只想談談幻燈片 22，您在其中談論的是銅產量翻倍。您介意透過一些專案來真正實現這一目標嗎？還有，那個上行柱裡有什麼？我想具體來說，您能談談是否考慮在所有這些中擴建 OT 工廠。之後我還有另一個問題。

Bold.

大膽的。

Yes, sure. Look, if you look at the '21 and '22 production volume, they only had the 1/3 of OT in the numbers. So when you look at the future over 1 million tonnes of production for Rio Tinto, that obviously assumes the ramp-up of OT to 500,000-plus copper production. And to go from that '21 low base, to over 1 million, 80% obviously, is OT.

是的，當然。你看，如果你看看'21和'22的產量，他們的加班時間只有1/3。因此，當你看到力拓未來超過 100 萬噸的產量時，顯然是假設 OT 的銅產量將增加到 50 萬以上。從 21 年的低基數到超過 100 萬，顯然是 80%，需要加班。

There is a growth coming from Kennecott potentially, but that is natural coming from the kit expansions. And potentially, we're looking at the underground, but we don't have at the moment the precise numbers to give you on the underground because we need to finish the feasibility study on that. As far as the next expansions, what it does not have, it doesn't have Resolution, it doesn't have Winu, it doesn't have Nuton and any potential Escondida expansions.

肯尼科特可能會帶來成長，但這是自然來自於套件的擴展。我們可能正在考慮地下設施，但目前我們沒有確切的數字可以提供給您，因為我們需要完成有關地下設施的可行性研究。至於下一個擴展，它沒有什麼，沒有Resolution，沒有Winu，沒有Nuton 和任何潛在的Escondida 擴展。

So together with BHP, we'll be obviously looking at that. The point I'm making is we have some of the best ore bodies in the world with Resolution, OT, Escondida. We have a number of opportunities for copper growth but we have to do it in a disciplined way. These are technically complex projects and we'll take one at a time.

因此，我們顯然會與必和必拓一起關注這一點。我想說的是，我們擁有世界上最好的礦體，包括Resolution、OT、Escondida。我們有很多銅增長的機會，但我們必須以嚴格的方式進行。這些都是技術上複雜的項目，我們一次只進行一個。

Okay. I thought it said in the footnote, OT was adjusted for 100% there, but maybe we can take that off-line. The other question I had was just in relation to iron ore. It does look as though the January run rates have held strong, which is great to see. Isn't your guidance now too low for iron ore? I mean, it's early days in the year, but just considering where the business is at the moment, I mean, it does look as though the top end has got to be achieved. Or is there some other time activity or maintenance that we need to consider through the year that might actually hamper the shipments? And if so, which quarters should we think about there?

好的。我認為腳註中說，OT 在那裡調整為 100%，但也許我們可以將其離線。我的另一個問題與鐵礦石有關。看起來一月份的運行率確實保持強勁，這是很高興看到的。你們現在對鐵礦石的指導是不是太低了？我的意思是，現在還處於今年初期，但考慮到目前的業務狀況，我的意思是，看起來確實必須實現高端。或者我們一年中是否需要考慮一些其他時間的活動或維護，這些活動或維護實際上可能會妨礙發貨？如果是這樣，我們應該考慮哪些方面？

Thank you. This is -- this is very helpful because sometimes the pressure from the market is not helpful because if you're a little bit behind all the time and you're only thinking about tomorrow and how do I get the last tonnes, you're not doing the right thing. So we're actually in a much more comfortable place. And what I would love to see this company getting more into is underpromise and overdeliver, which we have not done too much of in recent years. So I would agree that we are in a good spot here at the beginning of the year. But I would also say that the guidance is absolutely the right guidance.

謝謝。這是非常有幫助的，因為有時來自市場的壓力沒有幫助，因為如果你一直落後一點，而你只考慮明天以及如何獲得最後一噸，那麼你就沒有做正確的事。所以我們實際上處於一個更舒適的地方。我希望看到這家公司更專注於承諾不足和超額交付，而近年來我們在這方面做得不多。所以我同意我們在今年年初處於有利位置。但我也想說，這個指導絕對是正確的指導。

And the next question comes from the line of Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey.

下一個問題來自 Barrenjoey 的 Glyn Lawcock。

Maybe we'll stick on iron ore, saying it's 70% of your EBITDA still. Maybe you could just share your thoughts. It seems like from what you've said and what you wrote in the report, you seem to be a lot more constructive on China, maybe Q2. Could you maybe talk a little bit what green shoots your team in China are seeing to give you some confidence around maybe iron ore. Could you share your view of steel production and iron ore demand in China this year relative to last year as well?

也許我們會堅持使用鐵礦石，說它仍然佔 EBITDA 的 70%。也許你可以分享你的想法。從你在報告中所說和所寫的內容來看，你似乎對中國（也許是第二季）更具建設性。您能否談談您在中國的團隊所看到的新芽，這給了您對鐵礦石的一些信心。您能否分享一下您對今年中國鋼鐵產量和鐵礦石需求與去年相比的看法？

Yes. So a couple of things. First of all, you saw already the recovery happening in November. And if you are carefully following the stocks in -- the stock levels in China, they have been historically very, very low. So that already gives you some confidence about the needs for restocking, et cetera, plus, of course, that consumption were happening already in Q4.

是的。有幾件事。首先，您已經看到 11 月已經出現復甦。如果你仔細注意中國的庫存水平，你會發現它們在歷史上一直非常非常低。因此，這已經讓您對補貨的需求等有了一些信心，當然，消費已經在第四季度發生了。

Secondly, when you really dive deep into the property market, there has been a number of indicators that has demonstrated a lot of disruption, but that only covers part of the property market. And when you look at the total property market, it's probably somewhat more robust than those indicators are showing you. And that's our assessment as well.

其次，當你真正深入房地產市場時，有許多指標顯示出很大的破壞性，但這只涵蓋了房地產市場的一部分。當你觀察整個房地產市場時，你會發現它可能比這些指標所顯示的更強勁。這也是我們的評估。

We also believe that there will be good investments in infrastructure that is normally quite commodity-intense. So it feels good. And yes, you can read it in the news as well I spoke to our biggest customer, Baowu, about last week. And certainly, from them, there is a positive way of looking at the economy is going and there's a need for steel. So I'm quietly optimistic. It's not going to be kind of wild swings, but the market has already set itself for good demand from China, and that's what we are seeing happening.

我們也相信，通常商品密集的基礎設施將會有良好的投資。所以感覺很好。是的，你也可以在新聞中讀到，上週我與我們最大的客戶寶武進行了交談。當然，從他們的角度來看，他們以積極的方式看待經濟的發展以及對鋼鐵的需求。所以我默默地樂觀。這不會是劇烈波動，但市場已經為中國的良好需求做好了準備，這就是我們所看到的。

And maybe just as a follow-up, just if you could share some thoughts on the China Buyers Group. You've signed an MOU. What's the -- how does that play out from here do you think? Anything you can share with us on your engagement with the new buyers group?

也許只是作為後續行動，請您分享一些關於中國買家集團的想法。您已簽署諒解備忘錄。你認為從這裡開始會發生什麼事？關於您與新買家群體的互動，您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？

Look, the engagement has been very positive. Obviously, we know the Chairman very well because the Chairman used to be Chairman of Chinalco, our biggest shareholder. It's been entirely constructive. So there's no warning signs from our side. We used to deal with both private companies and state-owned enterprises in China. So -- and so far, what we have been exploring is areas of win-wins. And -- and yes, we have -- we are welcoming it with the agenda that they have shown us.

看，參與度非常正面。顯然，我們對董事長非常了解，因為董事長曾經是我們最大的股東中鋁公司的董事長。這完全是建設性的。所以我們這邊沒有任何警訊。我們曾經與中國的私營企業和國有企業打交道。因此，到目前為止，我們一直在探索雙贏的領域。而且——是的，我們有——我們對他們向我們展示的議程表示歡迎。

Thank you. Liam?

謝謝。利亞姆？

Liam Fitzpatrick from Deutsche Bank. Two questions, 1 on lithium and then 1 on Simandou. I think you quoted this morning on (inaudible) saying you haven't given up. So what is the latest kind of status and pathway there? And is that really going to be key in determining whether you look at inorganic opportunities in lithium. And then on Simandou, just interested in kind of what is actually taking place on the ground at the moment in terms of work.

德意志銀行的利亞姆·菲茨帕特里克。兩個問題，1 個關於鋰，1 個關於西芒杜。我想你今天早上引用了（聽不清楚）的話，說你還沒放棄。那麼最新的狀態和途徑是什麼呢？這真的是決定您是否關注鋰無機機會的關鍵嗎？然後在西芒杜，我只是對目前工作中實際發生的事情感興趣。

Well, thank you. Let me just take the (inaudible) first. Look, there is an enormous need particularly in Europe for having more lithium for the massive automaker industry. So there's a lot of customer demands and wish for seeing this being developed. We believe -- we are very proud of having discovered what is at least looks like the best ore body in Europe for lithium. We have developed really good solutions. We keep on upgrading it in terms of really making sure that it meets the highest ESG standards. And we believe that it would be good for the development in Serbia.

嗯，謝謝。讓我先講（聽不清楚）。看，尤其是在歐洲，大型汽車製造業對更多鋰的需求龐大。因此，有很多客戶的需求並希望看到這一點的開發。我們相信——我們非常自豪地發現了至少看起來是歐洲最好的鋰礦體。我們已經開發出了非常好的解決方案。我們不斷對其進行升級，以真正確保其符合最高的 ESG 標準。我們相信這將有利於塞爾維亞的發展。

But ultimately, it's a societal choice. And therefore, the only thing we can do is offering the best and most compelling proposition to the government of Serbia and see -- and then see whether they want to develop it. I hope so. And that's why I keep on saying we have definitely not given up. And on Simandou, Bold, what is happening on the ground?

但最終，這是一個社會選擇。因此，我們唯一能做的就是向塞爾維亞政府提供最好、最令人信服的提議，然後看看他們是否想要開發它。但願如此。這就是為什麼我一直說我們絕對沒有放棄。在西芒杜，博爾德，當地發生了什麼事？

Yes. Look, Charles Zimmerman, who runs our projects has been there a few weeks ago. And he shared some photos around Blocks 3 and 4. We are clearing the site for camp construction. There's significant ramp-up activity in terms of starting to hire local Guineans. So there's a lot of activity in terms of the actual capital commitments and potential ramp-up of the project. But obviously, we're not going to do anything ahead until the finalization of the agreement, as Jakob and Peter had alluded to. So a lot of activity, but a lot of it is preparatory phases for a rapid construction period.

是的。瞧，負責我們專案的查爾斯·齊默爾曼（Charles Zimmerman）幾週前就來過那裡。他還分享了 3 號和 4 號街區周圍的一些照片。我們正在清理場地以進行營地建設。在開始僱用當地幾內亞人方面有大量的活動。因此，在專案的實際資本承諾和潛在成長方面有很多活動。但顯然，正如雅各和彼得所提到的那樣，在協議最終確定之前我們不會採取任何行動。活動很多，但很多都是快速建設期的準備階段。

Tyler?

泰勒？

Tyler Broda from RBC. Just my question is on inflation. I would like to understand your views on sort of how much of this inflation do you see being sort of transitory and then how much is structural? I know it's a question, but in terms of your views from right here. And then I guess within that context, we've seen sustaining CapEx rise every year. And then on the growth CapEx side, we're probably going to see higher cost than maybe what we were thought 2 years ago. How -- within that context, how does that $10 billion number look mid-decade at this point?

來自加拿大皇家銀行的泰勒布羅達。我的問題是關於通貨膨脹。我想了解您的看法：您認為這種通膨有多少是暫時性的，有多少是結構性的？我知道這是一個問題，但就你在這裡的觀點而言。然後我想在這種背景下，我們每年都看到資本支出持續成長。然後在成長資本支出方面，我們可能會看到比我們兩年前想像的更高的成本。在這種背景下，100 億美元的數字在這個十年中期看起來如何？

That's very, very good. In terms of inflation, I think you -- in that waterfall, we show some of those market-driven factors. And we would expect those to be sort of exactly the same sort of cycle as our prices. So there's always a close correlation between our prices and our input prices going forward for those.

這非常非常好。就通貨膨脹而言，我認為在瀑布中，我們展示了一些市場驅動的因素。我們預期這些週期與我們的價格週期完全相同。因此，我們的價格和未來的投入價格之間始終存在著密切的相關性。

I mean, clearly, there is that inflation there that we sort of -- general inflation that flows through. But I have to say, I think what we see is pretty much that felt, as I said, right across the cost curve. So what you're seeing is pretty much just the cost curve rise. And so that being reflected then into price. So we -- our job is to sort of try and minimize anything over and above that as much as we can to maintain our competitive position. And that is our full intent and how we're trying to run the business at this moment in time.

我的意思是，很明顯，那裡存在著我們所經歷的通貨膨脹——普遍的通貨膨脹。但我不得不說，正如我所說，我認為我們所看到的幾乎是在成本曲線上感受到的。所以你看到的幾乎只是成本曲線的上升。然後這就會反映到價格中。所以我們——我們的工作就是盡可能地嘗試並盡量減少超出此範圍的任何事情，以保持我們的競爭地位。這就是我們的全部意圖，也是我們此時此刻努力經營業務的方式。

So that's how we see it. In terms of the capital side, and as I said, I think we're absorbing that inflation within our sustaining capital guidance. So we don't see that changing. And I think we've now had pretty consistent levels of sustaining capital going to the business and going forward. And I think that talks to one of the Jakob's key priorities is. Every year, our assets come out at the end and better health than they go in. And that sustained -- having that level of sustaining capital is absolutely critical. So I think at the moment, we are comfortable with the capital guidance and just fully absorbing any inflation within that.

這就是我們的看法。就資本方面而言，正如我所說，我認為我們正在將通貨膨脹納入我們的持續資本指導範圍內。所以我們認為這種情況不會改變。我認為我們現在已經有相當穩定的維持資本投入業務和未來的水準。我認為與雅各談判的關鍵優先事項之一是。每年，我們的資產最終都會流出，並且比流入時更加健康。而且這種持續性——擁有這種水準的維持資本絕對是至關重要的。所以我認為目前我們對資本指導感到滿意，並且完全吸收了其中的任何通貨膨脹。

Alain?

阿蘭？

Alain Gabriel, Morgan Stanley. One question is on the -- throughout your presentation, you have given a little reference to inorganic growth. You seem to be much more inwards looking at this stage. How do you think about M&A at this point in the cycle? And do you see opportunities with an acquisition at the asset level, not through the public markets?

阿蘭·加布里埃爾，摩根士丹利。一個問題是——在您的整個演講中，您稍微提到了無機增長。從這個階段來看，你似乎更內向。您如何看待當前週期中的併購？您是否看到了資產層面而非公開市場收購的機會？

Yes. Look, first of all, I probably much more believe in smaller M&A than big M&A. And I hope you can see with the things we are doing, they're all individual are very different but they all make industrial sense because that's where you actually get value out of M&A, in my view. We are trying to build -- shape the portfolio so it's relevant for our customers, for the future. There could be more things. But now you're saying looking inwards, looking outwards. That's simply because of the fact that Rio has had for decades a cupboard full of absolutely amazing opportunities. May I mention Resolution, Simandou, Rhodes Ridge, et cetera. You just don't find those on the market. And we already have in the copper.

是的。首先，我可能更相信小型併購而不是大型併購。我希望你能看到我們正在做的事情，它們都是個體，非常不同，但它們都具有工業意義，因為在我看來，這就是你真正從併購中獲得價值的地方。我們正在努力建立產品組合，使其與我們的客戶和未來相關。可能還有更多的事情。但現在你說向內看，向外看。這只是因為裡約熱內盧幾十年來一直擁有充滿絕對驚人機會的櫥櫃。我可以提一下Resolution、Simandou、Rhodes Ridge 等等。你只是在市場上找不到這些。我們已經有了銅。

So this shouldn't be a surprise that we are looking inwards to try to develop those right now. But that doesn't mean that we are not looking outside as well. And I think we showed that with Rincon. We also showed that we were decisive and took TRQ private because it was just the wrong structure. So we're looking. But at the end of the day, we don't want to grow lithium for the sake of growing lithium. We want to be convinced that we can actually create value if we're doing it, buying an asset.

因此，我們現在正在向內尋找並嘗試開發這些技術，這應該不足為奇。但這並不意味著我們不向外尋找。我認為我們透過 Rincon 展示了這一點。我們也表明我們是果斷的，將 TRQ 私有化，因為它的結構是錯誤的。所以我們正在尋找。但歸根究底，我們不想為了種植鋰而種植鋰。我們希望確信，如果我們這樣做，購買資產，我們實際上可以創造價值。

Your next phone question comes from the line of Paul McTaggart from Citigroup.

您的下一個電話問題來自花旗集團的 Paul McTaggart。

So back on the Pilbara, not to bore you. But in the short run, new steelmaking technologies are not going to be around. There's going to be some years before we develop sort of green steel, et cetera. Is there an increasing pressure to sort of reduce carbon intensity for steelmaking? And that means high-grade feedstocks, potentially DRI, even more scrapped BOS. Obviously, you're doing Simandou, which is high grade. But what longer term, what do you think is -- what will be the changes in the Pilbara with higher ore grades. And do you see an industry maybe perhaps the medium term, we start to do some downstream growth? How do you think this is going to play out?

那麼回到皮爾巴拉吧，不是為了讓你厭煩。但短期內，新的煉鋼技術不會出現。我們還需要幾年時間才能開發出某種綠色鋼鐵等等。降低煉鋼碳強度的壓力是否越來越大？這意味著高品位原料，可能是 DRI，甚至是更多報廢的 BOS。顯然，你正在做西芒杜，這是高品質的。但從長遠來看，您認為礦石品位較高的皮爾巴拉地區將會發生什麼變化。您是否認為某個產業可能從中期來看，我們開始進行一些下游成長？您認為事情會如何發展？

Paul, you were slightly hard to hear so let me quickly repeat it for Jakob and Peter. So very -- we're moving towards a low steel -- low carbon steelmaking industry. That means initially because there are no new technologies. Higher grading the ore streams into that, how do you -- we're doing Simandou, which is higher ore grade. How are you seeing the Pilbara developing in the near term? That's your question?

保羅，你聽得有點困難，所以讓我快速地向雅各和彼得重複一遍。因此，我們正朝著低鋼、低碳煉鋼產業邁進。這意味著最初是因為沒有新技術。更高品位的礦石流入其中，你怎麼樣——我們正在做西芒杜，這是更高的礦石品位。您如何看待皮爾巴拉近期的發展？這就是你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

So let's just -- first of all, we, as Rio Tinto, are uniquely placed because we will soon be extracting iron ore on 3 continents. And you forgot to mention IOC, which is very, very high quality. And we will have Simandou, which is very high quality. And we have Pilbara, which is high quality, but you're right, not as high grade as the 2 others. Having said that, look at the expansions we're doing, Western Range is attractive. Rhodes Ridge is absolutely super quality iron ore.

首先，我們作為力拓集團，處於獨特的地位，因為我們很快就會在三大洲開採鐵礦石。你忘了提到 IOC，它的品質非常非常高。我們還會有西芒杜，品質非常高。我們有 Pilbara，品質很高，但你是對的，沒有其他 2 個那麼高。話雖如此，看看我們正在進行的擴建，Western Range 很有吸引力。羅德嶺絕對是優質鐵礦。

So we are upgrading there. And then on top of that, there is a lot of R&D happening. I think we used the word cracking the code. And we are really trying to find ways and means to progress this. But having said that, the world is not going to change away from blast furnace from 1 year to another. So this is -- I think I've said in my speech earlier, it's a multi-decade development. But I hope you see that we are already preparing us for that.

所以我們正在那裡升級。除此之外，還有大量的研發工作正在進行中。我想我們用了「破解密碼」這個詞。我們確實正在努力尋找方法和手段來推動這項進程。但話雖如此，世界不會一年又一年放棄高爐。所以這是——我想我在之前的演講中已經說過，這是一個數十年的發展。但我希望您看到我們已經為此做好了準備。

We will now take the next question. And the next question comes from the line of Kaan Peker World Bank of Canada.

我們現在回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自加拿大世界銀行 Kaan Peker。

Just 1 question on, I suppose, the Pilbara. In the Investor Day and also today, there was a discussion around being a best operator as the goal. However, if we look across the Pilbara, Rio has higher relative unit cost and sustaining CapEx despite being larger scale. So I suppose my question is, when will the best operator goal result in lower unit costs and lower CapEx? And when should we start seeing that come through?

我想只有 1 個關於皮爾巴拉的問題。在投資者日以及今天，都圍繞著成為最佳運營商作為目標進行了討論。然而，如果我們縱觀皮爾巴拉地區，儘管規模較大，但裡約的相對單位成本和維持資本支出較高。所以我想我的問題是，最佳營運商目標何時會帶來更低的單位成本和更低的資本支出？我們什麼時候應該開始看到這一點？

Thank you. That's a super good question. I think there are different perspectives around what is best operators because, first of all, what we needed to do was to stabilize operations and stabilize our production as -- well, that's pretty evident. And one of the message to do that was to complete well and implement and now also finally ramp up the 4 replacement projects.

謝謝。這是一個超級好的問題。我認為關於什麼是最好的運營商有不同的觀點，因為首先，我們需要做的是穩定運營和穩定我們的生產——嗯，這是非常明顯的。做到這一點的訊息之一是很好地完成和實施，現在終於加快了 4 個替代項目的進度。

But we have done much, much more in terms of a period of time now investing more in sustaining CapEx, seeing that those money are being spent well, improving maintenance. And I have to tell you, this Safe Production System, Peter spoke a lot about it, is I'm super, super excited about it. Because what does it mean to be best operator in the Pilbara? Actually, you have to go from mine to mine and meet the teams and find out how you're actually working things here, how are you addressing things. And what I've seen in the places where we have implemented is absolutely amazing.

但在一段時間內，我們已經做了很多很多工作，現在加大了維持資本支出的投資，看到這些錢用得很好，並改善了維護。我必須告訴你，這個安全生產體系，彼得談了很多，我對此非常非常興奮。因為成為皮爾巴拉最好的操作員意味著什麼？事實上，你必須從一個我的團隊到另一個我的團隊，與團隊會面，了解你在這裡實際上是如何運作的，你是如何解決問題的。我在我們實施的地方所看到的情況絕對令人驚嘆。

It is kicking in, but you just have to be a little bit patient. If certainly I become too impatient, we will not get the full value out of it. It doesn't happen by setting top-down targets. It actually happens by empowering people. They're super people, they all want to achieve. We just need to make that happening.

它正在發揮作用，但你只需要有點耐心。如果我變得太不耐煩，我們將無法從中獲得全部價值。這不是透過設定自上而下的目標來實現的。它實際上是透過賦予人們權力來實現的。他們都是超級人，他們都想實現目標。我們只需要讓這一切發生。

So the first thing you see was stabilizing production. I hope you can see we are on a good trajectory. The second thing as well is we're actually improving the quality of the iron ore as well. And the third thing is absolutely efficiencies. But you've got to take it a bit -- take a bit more time for it. And obviously, right now, there's enormous inflationary pressure. But the more successful we are in terms of removing idle work, irritants, et cetera, being more productive, the less requirements we have to people and there are very few people available there.

所以你首先看到的就是穩定生產。我希望你能看到我們正走在良好的軌道上。第二件事是我們實際上也在提高鐵礦石的品質。第三件事是絕對的效率。但你必須多花一點時間。顯然，目前存在巨大的通膨壓力。但是，我們在消除閒置工作、刺激物等方面越成功，生產力越高，我們對人們的要求就越少，而且那裡的人也很少。

So that is kind of getting into a positive cycle. I'm not pushing it too hard because there are pieces of work on maintenance that to me is more important than demonstrating short term the perfect unit cost. But I would say to you, it was a bit of a bet when I, 2 years ago stated this about being best operator. But particularly here in the fourth quarter and early this year, where at my site visits, I think I see the data points that gives me confidence that we are on the right track on the journey. And I think I said in the presentation today, we have the best ahead of us. Thank you.

這樣就進入了良性循環。我並沒有太努力，因為對我來說，維護方面的一些工作比展示短期完美的單位成本更重要。但我想對你說，當我兩年前談到成為最好的運營商時，這有點像是賭注。但特別是在第四季度和今年年初，在我的現場訪問中，我認為我看到的數據點讓我相信我們正走在正確的道路上。我想我在今天的演講中說過，我們前面有最好的。謝謝。

Thank you, Kaan. Next one here in the room, Robert -- Richard, sorry.

謝謝你，卡恩。房間裡的下一位，羅伯特——理查德，抱歉。

Richard Hatch, Berenberg, Robert is my friend. A question on OT. Sorry to harp on about it again. It's around comfort. First question, Slide 20, your production guidance is based on 2020 technical report. Are you comfortable that you're not going to have to cut that based on having to leave stability pillars in Panels 1 and 2. And also comfort around fiscal terms, say -- sorry, not fiscal terms, comfort around the intercompany lane. So the intercompany lane must be sitting about $9 million, $9.5 billion, LIBOR plus 6.5%, so compounding at about $1 billion a year. Are you comfortable that all of that cash coming to you and not being shared -- well, shared in your terms with the government is not going to frustrate relations with the government and, therefore, create challenges in the medium term?

理查哈奇、貝倫貝格、羅伯特是我的朋友。關於OT的問題。很抱歉再次喋喋不休。這是圍繞舒適度。第一個問題，投影片20，你們的生產指導是基於2020年的技術報告。您是否感到放心，您不必因為必須在面板 1 和 2 中留下穩定支柱而削減這一點。還有圍繞財政條款的安慰，比如說 - 對不起，不是財政條款，而是圍繞公司間通道的安慰。因此，公司間通道必須約為 900 萬美元，即 95 億美元，倫敦銀行同業拆借利率 (LIBOR) 加 6.5%，因此每年複利約為 10 億美元。您是否放心，所有這些現金都流向您而不被分享——好吧，按照您與政府的條款分享不會破壞與政府的關係，從而在中期帶來挑戰？

Thank you. Great question. So Bold, I have the same questions for you.

謝謝。很好的問題。如此大膽，我也有同樣的問題想問你。

Now, look, I think I could be as comfortable in predicting the future with certainty. And yes, I mean, I think at the moment, we have a great relationship with the government. We work with them on a transparent basis. But this is a risky underground technical block-caving project. And I think we just have to be absolutely honest about that because I think we need to look at and how we have the best technological data sensors and, et cetera, but it's going to be an evolution. And certainly, we have the best team and capabilities looking at it, but we'll be transparent with you as things develop. But the one thing I cannot give you is a guarantee on your NPV with absolute 100% certainty. This is a risk that investors, we are all taking. And at the moment, we're very comfortable with partnering with the government and, obviously, our stakeholders here.

現在，我想我可以輕鬆、自信地預測未來。是的，我的意思是，我認為目前我們與政府有著良好的關係。我們在透明的基礎上與他們合作。但這是一項危險的地下技術崩落工程。我認為我們必須對此絕對​​誠實，因為我認為我們需要考慮如何擁有最好的技術資料感測器等等，但這將是一個演變。當然，我們擁有最好的團隊和能力來解決這個問題，但隨著事情的發展，我們將向您保持透明。但我無法向您提供的一件事是對您的 NPV 做出絕對 100% 確定的保證。這是我們投資人都在承擔的風險。目前，我們非常願意與政府以及我們的利害關係人合作。

Look, it's a very good question. It's a very difficult question. We had a setback in 2019, as you will recall. I'm absolutely convinced that we learned big time from it, and I am very impressed with the teams that are working on it. And they are also very honest. There are real risks here, but I feel that they're really on top of it. So I'm kind of cautiously optimistic on that front. And the better we perform in the mine, the better we can also find good solutions with the government. Obviously, the last thing we want to do is to disappoint the government.

你看，這是一個非常好的問題。這是一個非常困難的問題。您還記得，我們​​在 2019 年遇到了挫折。我絕對相信我們從中學到了很多東西，我對致力於此的團隊印象非常深刻。而且他們也非常誠實。這裡確實有風險，但我覺得它們確實是最重要的。所以我對此持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們在礦井中表現得越好，就越能與政府找到好的解決方案。顯然，我們最不想做的就是讓政府失望。

Myles? Sorry, Richard, just one second.

邁爾斯？對不起，理查德，請等一下。

Myles Allsop from UBS. Maybe a question for Peter. You got a 40% to 60% payout range but you've never paid less than 60%. So why keep the 40%? And maybe just how does that play relative to net debt? I mean, it's obviously crept up a little bit, $4 billion. Where -- should we expect specials when you go back to net cash? And how much M&A firepower do you have?

瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·奧爾索普。也許有個問題要問彼得。您的支付範圍為 40% 到 60%，但您支付的金額從未低於 60%。那為什麼要保留40%呢？也許相對於淨債務來說，這又是如何發揮作用的呢？我的意思是，它顯然增加了一點點，40 億美元。當你回到淨現金時，我們應該在哪裡期待特價？還有多少併購火力？

That's a lot of questions in one.

這是很多問題之一。

Multi-pronged.

多管齊下。

I mean, I think the policy has been well set. I mean I think last year, when you look at it, it was still a very strong year for us financially. So when you look at the EBITDA and what we produce and $9 billion free cash flow, we're actually paying out 8 of that in the dividend. So I think that's reflective of the overall approach we're really adopting here is by looking in and around at all the metrics, looking at the market and taking that sort of broad view.

我的意思是，我認為政策已經制定得很好。我的意思是，我認為去年對我們來說，在財務上仍然是非常強大的一年。因此，當您查看 EBITDA 以及我們的生產和 90 億美元的自由現金流時，我們實際上在股息中支付了其中的 8 倍。因此，我認為這反映了我們在這裡真正採用的整體方法，即審視所有指標、審視市場並採取廣泛的觀點。

So we're very, very comfortable that 60% was the right payout on this year's results. I think when it comes to net debt, I mean, again, having a strong balance sheet gives you so much flexibility. When you think of the cyclicality of this industry, it allows you just to keep investing through it and to keep giving returns to shareholders and to take opportunistically -- take opportunities when they come up. So that's what we want to do. And that's why having that strong balance sheet really makes, I think, such good sense to us.

因此，我們非常非常放心，根據今年的業績，60% 的派息是正確的。我認為，當涉及淨債務時，我的意思是，擁有強大的資產負債表會給你帶來很大的靈活性。當你想到這個行業的周期性時，它允許你繼續透過它進行投資，繼續為股東帶來回報，並抓住機會——當機會出現時抓住機會。這就是我們想做的事。我認為，這就是為什麼擁有強大的資產負債表對我們來說確實很有意義。

So we're very comfortable. We're very comfortable having a bit of cash on the balance sheet when markets were so, so strong, very comfortable at the 4.2%. We've got lots of flexibility and headroom to the extent we want to use that within our sort of principles-based approach to the balance sheet.

所以我們很舒服。當市場如此強勁、4.2% 的利率水準時，我們對資產負債表上有一些現金感到非常滿意。我們有很大的靈活性和空間，只要我們想在基於原則的資產負債表方法中使用它。

Could you ever imagine paying up 40%?

你能想像支付 40% 的費用嗎？

I think at the moment, I think we're very comfortable what the track record we've got, but you don't know what the future looks like.

我認為目前我們對我們所取得的成績感到非常滿意，但你不知道未來會是什麼樣子。

Ever is a long time. So last question here in the room.

曾經是一段很長的時間。這是房間裡的最後一個問題。

It's a very difficult question. I just wanted to make the point of you've seen Rio Tinto that hasn't grown a lot for a long time. That actually, take the guidance of this year, is indicating that it will be growing. And the real trick for us is how do we stick with a 60% payout ratio and start getting the company to grow? And so far, it looks very encouraging. And we don't want to -- we don't want to go into wild growth. This company has tried this kind of swing too much. We don't want to be there. We want to be disciplined. And one of the ways to keep it disciplined is having the dividend. But on the other hand, just paying extra dividend cannot be an end in itself. It's an amazing company, and we have opportunities to get it to grow in the right order, and we should do so because that is actually in the interest of the shareholders.

這是一個非常困難的問題。我只是想強調一下，你已經看到力拓已經很久沒有成長了。實際上，以今年的指導來看，這表明它將會成長。對我們來說真正的訣竅是如何堅持 60% 的派息率並開始讓公司成長？到目前為止，看起來非常令人鼓舞。我們不想——我們不想陷入瘋狂增長。這家公司已經嘗試過太多這種搖擺了。我們不想在那裡。我們希望遵守紀律。保持紀律的方法之一就是獲得股息。但另一方面，僅僅支付額外股息本身並不是目的。這是一家了不起的公司，我們有機會讓它以正確的順序發展，我們應該這樣做，因為這實際上符合股東的利益。

The last one.

最後一個。

Sorry, boring question on CO2 emissions, Scope 1, 2 has reduced. Good job. Scope 3 has increased, I think, as from 553 million to 583 million tonnes. Not growing volumes or not increasing Scope 3 is a stupid idea. But does it -- or how much does Scope 3 increases play into your investment decisions these days?

抱歉，關於二氧化碳排放量的無聊問題，範圍 1、2 已減少。好工作。我認為範圍 3 已從 5.53 億噸增加到 5.83 億噸。不增加銷量或不增加範圍 3 是一個愚蠢的想法。但是，範圍 3 的成長對您目前的投資決策有多大影響呢？

Look, Scope 3 is only going to be more and more important, and I would say we can still do much, much more. The way I tend to look at Scope 3 is try to break it down into things. There is one element is the upstream Scope 3. It's not that enormous for us, but we need to manage our suppliers very well.

看，範圍 3 只會變得越來越重要，我想說我們仍然可以做更多、更多的事情。我傾向於看待範圍 3 的方式是嘗試將其分解為多個事物。其中有一個要素是上游範圍3。這對我們來說不是那麼大，但我們需要很好地管理我們的供應商。

Another area that's quite significant, 8 million tonnes of CO2, is our logistics. And even though Scope 3, I feel that we can influence that and we must do more and do a better job on that front. And then the real big thing, of course, is the downstream, and that's kind of an influencing role. But frankly, the steel industry is just asking to join up with us and trying together to find solutions. And there is a lot happening at this point in time.

另一個非常重要的領域是我們的物流，二氧化碳排放量為 800 萬噸。即使是範圍 3，我認為我們可以影響這一點，我們必須在這方面做得更多、做得更好。當然，真正的大事是下游，這是一種影響作用。但坦白說，鋼鐵業只是要求與我們合作，共同尋找解決方案。此時此刻發生了很多事。

So I would not be surprised if you see -- the only point is, of course, many of these things will have an impact 5 or 10 years from now. But it's actually happening now with the technology development, et cetera. So it is a vital part. I think the key thing though is it's very difficult to use annual numbers because you need to think about projections 5 and 10 years down the road. But I do think that when we stand here next year, we need to be much more tangible on Scope 3. There is more work to be done.

因此，如果您看到，我不會感到驚訝——當然，唯一的一點是，其中許多事情將在 5 或 10 年後產生影響。但隨著技術的發展等，現在它實際上正在發生。所以它是一個至關重要的部分。我認為關鍵是很難使用年度數據，因為你需要考慮未來 5 年和 10 年的預測。但我確實認為，當我們明年站在這裡時，我們需要在範圍 3 上更加具體。還有更多工作要做。

Okay. We are literally 1 minute to 10. So I'd like to close it up here. Thank you, everybody, so much for joining here. Thank you, everybody in Australia for staying up somewhat later in the office. And thank you Bold for coming in from Mongolia. Clearly, Bold is looking forward to welcoming some of you on-site during this year. If you don't join us there, then we'll see you at the half year. Thank you very much.

好的。距離 10 點還有 1 分鐘。所以我想在此結束。非常感謝大家加入這裡。謝謝澳洲的每個人在辦公室熬夜。感謝您從蒙古趕來。顯然，Bold 期待今年在現場歡迎你們中的一些人。如果你不來參加我們的活動，那我們半年見。非常感謝。