力拓 (RIO) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good evening, and good morning, everybody. Welcome to Rio Tinto's 2021 results presentation, and thank you for joining us. Today's presentation is virtual, but we hope to see many of you face-to-face in the next few days. Our CEO, Jakob Stausholm; and CFO, Peter Cunningham, will go through a presentation, which will be followed by a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

大家晚上好，早上好。歡迎來到力拓 2021 年業績發布會，感謝您加入我們。今天的演示是虛擬的，但我們希望在接下來的幾天裡與你們中的許多人面對面交流。我們的首席執行官 Jakob Stausholm；首席財務官 Peter Cunningham 將進行演示，隨後將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）

Before we start, please have a look at the cautionary statement on Slide 2 for a moment.

在我們開始之前，請先看一下幻燈片 2 上的警告聲明。

Thank you very much, and Jakob, over to you.

非常感謝你，還有 Jakob，感謝你。

Thank you, Menno. Good morning, and good evening from Sydney. I would like to acknowledge the Gadigal people of Eora Nation as the traditional custodians and pay my respect to elders past, present and emerging. I extend that respect to all aboriginal and Torres Strait islanders people.

謝謝你，門諾。早上好，來自悉尼的晚安。我要承認 Eora 國家的 Gadigal 人是傳統的監護人，並向過去、現在和新興的長者致以敬意。我向所有原住民和托雷斯海峽島民表示敬意。

When I presented my first result as Chief Executive last February, I set out 4 key objectives to make Rio Tinto an even stronger company: to become the best operator, to strive for impeccable ESG credentials, to excel in development and to strengthen our social license. This is what we have done, and I'm proud to say that we have made progress against each objective.

去年 2 月，當我提出我作為首席執行官的第一個結果時，我設定了 4 個關鍵目標，以使力拓成為更強大的公司：成為最好的運營商、爭取無可挑剔的 ESG 證書、在發展中表現出色以及加強我們的社會許可.這就是我們所做的，我很自豪地說，我們在每個目標上都取得了進展。

In October, we launched a new strategy, including more ambitious climate targets. We also set out how we will grow in commodities that facilitate and benefit from the energy transition, decarbonize our assets and value chain, and maintain our tight capital allocation enabling us to pay attractive dividends.

10 月，我們推出了一項新戰略，包括更雄心勃勃的氣候目標。我們還闡述了我們將如何發展促進能源轉型並從中受益的大宗商品，使我們的資產和價值鏈脫碳，並保持我們緊縮的資本配置，使我們能夠支付有吸引力的紅利。

Achieving our objectives and delivering the strategy are entirely aligned. We're all focused on execution. But as I've stated previously, it is a multiyear journey. However, even after 12 months and only 4 months after our Capital Markets Day, there's tangible progress. Today's results highlights the underlying strength of our business. We achieved a third consecutive year of 0 fatalities, which we have never achieved before. We realized this record disappears the moment we let down our guard. Having our people return home safely each day remains our first priority, and we continue to focus on this. I'd like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank our people for their commitment, resilience and sacrifice during another COVID-constrained year. They've done a superb job. I'm very proud.

實現我們的目標和實施戰略是完全一致的。我們都專注於執行。但正如我之前所說，這是一個多年的旅程。然而，即使在我們的資本市場日之後的 12 個月和僅 4 個月之後，也取得了切實的進展。今天的業績凸顯了我們業務的潛在實力。我們連續第三年實現了零死亡，這是我們以前從未實現過的。我們意識到，一旦我們放鬆警惕，這個記錄就會消失。讓我們的員工每天安全回家仍然是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續關注這一點。我想藉此機會衷心感謝我們的員工在又一個受 COVID 限制的一年中的承諾、韌性和犧牲。他們做得非常出色。我很自豪。

Turning to our financials. Our results were very strong. They demonstrate both the quality of our assets and the strength of our business model. We are firing on all cylinders in terms of our financial performance. Each of our 4 product groups were highly profitable, achieved significant EBITDA growth and double-digit return on capital employed and delivered strong free cash flow. Our iron ore business continues to be the primary contributor. But we also benefited from an increased contribution from the other 3 product groups, not least aluminum that recorded 20% return on capital employed in the second half of 2021, up from just 3% during 2020.

轉向我們的財務。我們的結果非常強勁。它們既展示了我們資產的質量，也展示了我們商業模式的實力。就我們的財務業績而言，我們正在全力以赴。我們的 4 個產品組中的每一個都實現了高利潤，實現了顯著的 EBITDA 增長和兩位數的資本回報率，並提供了強勁的自由現金流。我們的鐵礦石業務仍然是主要貢獻者。但我們也受益於其他 3 個產品組的貢獻增加，尤其是鋁，它在 2021 年下半年錄得 20% 的資本回報率，高於 2020 年的 3%。

In aggregate, we achieved the strongest financials in our history with EBITDA of $38 billion and net earnings of USD 21 billion. A highlight for me comes when you compare to base results with our performance during a similar period of strong demand and high commodity prices a decade ago.

總的來說，我們實現了歷史上最強勁的財務業績，EBITDA 為 380 億美元，淨利潤為 210 億美元。當您將基本結果與我們在十年前需求強勁和大宗商品價格高企的類似時期的表現進行比較時，我的一個亮點就出現了。

In 2021, we converted a far higher proportion of strong commodity prices into earnings. And subsequently, because of our strict capital allocation, we converted the earnings into far higher free cash flow. This enabled us to declare record dividends of $16.8 billion, a 79% payout ratio. This performance reflects our tight cost control, disciplined capital allocation and the fact that our balance sheet is the strongest it has been for at least 15 years.

2021 年，我們將強勁的商品價格轉化為收益的比例要高得多。隨後，由於我們嚴格的資本配置，我們將收益轉化為更高的自由現金流。這使我們能夠宣布創紀錄的 168 億美元股息，派息率為 79%。這一業績反映了我們嚴格的成本控制、嚴格的資本分配以及我們的資產負債表是至少 15 年來最強勁的事實。

In the past year, we have made important and significant shifts in how we engage, how we see ourselves and what really matters to us. We have become more humble and better listener, both internally and externally as we extract the full learnings from Juukan Gorge, developing relationships which goes beyond just agreements and that can deliver mutual prosperity. What Bold and the team achieved in Mongolia is a perfect example of what can be mutually achieved. Combining our operating and development know-how with genuine relationships unlocks valuable opportunities.

在過去的一年裡，我們在參與方式、看待自己的方式以及對我們真正重要的事情方面都做出了重要而重大的轉變。當我們從 Juukan Gorge 汲取全部知識時，我們在內部和外部都變得更加謙虛和更好的傾聽者，發展的關係不僅限於協議，而且可以實現共同繁榮。 Bold 和團隊在蒙古取得的成就是可以相互實現的完美例子。將我們的運營和開發專業知識與真正的關係相結合，可以釋放寶貴的機會。

Looking ahead, we see a positive outlook for all our commodities. This is driven by the global energy transition, which is creating new demands for our products and near-term Chinese policies that are becoming more growth focused. While the current global macroeconomic environment is strong, there are significant geopolitical and economic uncertainties, for example, surrounding Ukraine. Rio Tinto has demonstrated that we are able to continue to perform in uncertain times due to our very robust assets. That is why we remain highly competitive when demand and prices are low and benefits in full in periods of tight supply and demand balances.

展望未來，我們看到我們所有商品的前景樂觀。這是由全球能源轉型推動的，這對我們的產品和近期中國政策提出了新的需求，這些政策正變得更加註重增長。儘管當前的全球宏觀經濟環境強勁，但地緣政治和經濟存在重大不確定性，例如烏克蘭周邊地區。力拓已經證明，由於我們非常強大的資產，我們能夠在不確定的時期繼續表現。這就是為什麼我們在需求和價格較低時保持高度競爭力，並在供需平衡緊張的時期充分受益。

When I became CEO, I also committed to improve our culture. This goes well beyond operational safety. It's about how we care for our people, how we become less hierarchical and more humane organization and how we unleash the potential of each individual. We're not wasting time. And we have introduced measures and frameworks to strengthen the business and empower our people. We have rolled out our new values of care, courage and curiosity. And we're investing in our people. Through the Rio Tinto Safe Production System, we will empower our people to achieve consistent operational excellence and unlock real and sustainable improvements.

當我成為首席執行官時，我還致力於改善我們的文化。這遠遠超出了操作安全性。這是關於我們如何關心我們的員工，我們如何變得更少等級化和更人性化的組織，以及我們如何釋放每個人的潛力。我們不是在浪費時間。我們引入了措施和框架來加強業務並賦予我們的員工權力。我們推出了關愛、勇氣和好奇心的新價值觀。我們正在投資於我們的員工。通過力拓安全生產體系，我們將賦能我們的員工實現持續的卓越運營，並實現真正和可持續的改進。

In March last year, we commissioned Liz Broderick to conduct a thorough review of our culture. The findings of her comprehensive report are very disturbing and confronting. But in order to improve, we had to identify the extent of our problems. We will implement the report's recommendation in full, building on the changes already put in place to make Rio a safer, more inclusive and more respectful place to work.

去年 3 月，我們委託 Liz Broderick 對我們的文化進行了徹底的審查。她的綜合報告的調查結果非常令人不安和令人反感。但為了改進，我們必須確定問題的嚴重程度。我們將在已經實施的變革基礎上全面落實報告的建議，使里約成為一個更安全、更具包容性和更受尊重的工作場所。

At the heart of all our efforts from changing our culture to operational excellence is trusting and respecting our employees, becoming less hierarchical and empowering our people. To make a real difference across the business, we are driving outcomes, not just setting targets. This applies across all 4 objectives.

從改變我們的文化到卓越運營，我們所有努力的核心是信任和尊重我們的員工，減少等級制度並賦予我們的員工權力。為了在整個業務中產生真正的影響，我們正在推動成果，而不僅僅是設定目標。這適用於所有 4 個目標。

However, let me now hand over to Peter, who will examine our strong set of financials in details. Peter, please?

但是，現在讓我交給彼得，他將詳細檢查我們強大的財務狀況。彼得，好嗎？

Thank you, Jakob. Good morning, and good evening, everyone. Let's start by taking a look at the numbers. We've announced a record set of results following strong global demand for all our major commodities. The 42% increase in revenue was driven by price, in particular, iron ore. aluminum and copper were also significant contributors. Importantly, we maintained our financial discipline throughout 2021, achieving underlying EBITDA of $37.7 billion and operating cash flow of $25.3 billion after record taxes and royalties of $13 billion.

謝謝你，雅各布。大家早上好，晚上好。讓我們先來看看數字。在全球對我們所有主要商品的強勁需求之後，我們公佈了一系列創紀錄的業績。收入增長 42% 是由價格推動的，尤其是鐵礦石。鋁和銅也是重要的貢獻者。重要的是，我們在整個 2021 年保持了財務紀律，實現了 377 億美元的基本 EBITDA 和 253 億美元的經營現金流，扣除創紀錄的 130 億美元的稅收和特許權使用費。

Free cash flow of $17.7 billion was after $7.4 billion of capital expenditure and a $1.1 billion temporary working capital outflow, reflecting increased China portside trading inventories and supply chain disruptions. Underlying earnings rose to $21.4 billion, which lifted our return on capital to 44%. This enabled us to declare total dividends of $16.8 billion for the full year.

在 74 億美元的資本支出和 11 億美元的臨時營運資金流出後，自由現金流為 177 億美元，反映出中國港口貿易庫存增加和供應鏈中斷。基本收益增至 214 億美元，這將我們的資本回報率提升至 44%。這使我們能夠宣布全年股息總額為 168 億美元。

Net earnings was also a record, although we did have some exceptional items, notably the $500 million increase in the closure provision for ERA, where we have taken the midpoint of ERA's guidance, recognizing 100% of the increase.

淨收益也是創紀錄的，儘管我們確實有一些特殊項目，特別是 ERA 的關閉準備金增加了 5 億美元，我們採用了 ERA 指導的中點，確認了 100% 的增長。

Let's now take a look at our key markets. Iron ore prices rose to record highs, with China importing well above 1 billion tonnes and consumption in the rest of the world largely recovering to pre-COVID levels. The steel intensity of the recovery lifted global crude steel production by almost 100 million tonnes to a record of almost 2 billion tonnes. Global scrap generation also improved, but high-cost iron ore supply was required to balance the market. This did taper off in the second half as prices declined.

現在讓我們來看看我們的主要市場。鐵礦石價格升至歷史新高，中國進口量遠高於 10 億噸，世界其他地區的消費量基本恢復到疫情爆發前的水平。復甦的鋼鐵強度使全球粗鋼產量增加了近 1 億噸，達到近 20 億噸的創紀錄水平。全球廢鋼產量也有所改善，但需要高成本的鐵礦石供應來平衡市場。隨著價格下跌，這種情況在下半年逐漸減弱。

Aluminum and copper prices rated to multiyear highs on firm recovery in global demand and supply challenges. Looking forward, we're encouraged to see continued momentum in our markets, but also fully alert to potential disruption from new COVID variants and geopolitical tensions.

由於全球需求和供應挑戰的堅定復甦，鋁和銅的價格被評為多年高位。展望未來，我們很高興看到我們的市場繼續保持勢頭，但也充分警惕新的 COVID 變種和地緣政治緊張局勢可能帶來的破壞。

Let's now take a closer look at the drivers. Unsurprisingly, commodity prices were by far the biggest movement, boosting EBITDA by $17.5 billion in aggregate. In past cycles, higher prices have given rise to significantly higher costs, often wiping out up to 1/3 of the price gains and resulting in painful adjustments later on. This year, the cost variance was more modest, reflecting our intense focus on cost control throughout the cycle, with $1.1 billion impact mainly due to fixed cost inefficiencies from lower volumes. This meant that we converted most of the price benefit into higher EBITDA.

現在讓我們仔細看看驅動程序。不出所料，大宗商品價格是迄今為止最大的變動，使 EBITDA 總計增加了 175 億美元。在過去的周期中，較高的價格會導致成本顯著增加，通常會抹去高達 1/3 的價格漲幅，並導致後來的痛苦調整。今年，成本差異較為溫和，反映了我們在整個週期內對成本控制的高度關注，產生了 11 億美元的影響，主要是由於產量減少導致的固定成本效率低下。這意味著我們將大部分價格收益轉化為更高的 EBITDA。

Our cash conversion was also strong with record operating and free cash flow and continued focus on capital discipline, which has not always been the case in previous cycles. However, we are not satisfied with our operational performance and recognize that it will take time to turn it around, a multiyear journey, in fact.

我們的現金轉換也很強勁，創紀錄的運營和自由現金流以及對資本紀律的持續關注，這在以前的周期中並不總是如此。然而，我們對我們的運營表現並不滿意，並認識到扭轉局面需要時間，事實上，這是一個多年的旅程。

Let's look at each division, starting with iron ore. The team did a great job keeping the assets running and delivered record underlying EBITDA of $28 billion and a 76% margin. In the first half, we experienced challenging operating conditions from prolonged wet weather, heritage management and tying in 90 million tonnes of replacement mines as well as bringing on Gudai-Darri. Our production performance certainly improved in the second half, but tie-ins were delayed due to labor shortages and COVID restrictions. These were compounded by a high amount of project rework as we were able to carry out quality assurance steel and equipment manufacturers. Overall, this led to a 3% reduction in shipments. Inventory levels at China portside increased with higher volumes of lower quality SP10 and constrained availability of high-grade blending stocks. These are now being drawn down in line with market demand.

讓我們看看每個部門，從鐵礦石開始。該團隊在保持資產運轉方面做得很好，並交付了創紀錄的 280 億美元的基本 EBITDA 和 76% 的利潤率。上半年，我們經歷了長期潮濕的天氣、遺產管理、9000 萬噸替代礦山的搭售以及引入 Gudai-Darri 等具有挑戰性的運營條件。我們的生產業績在下半年肯定有所改善，但由於勞動力短缺和 COVID 限制，合作被推遲。由於我們能夠為鋼鐵和設備製造商提供質量保證，因此大量的項目返工加劇了這些問題。總體而言，這導致出貨量減少了 3%。中國港口庫存水平隨著低質量 SP10 的數量增加和高品位混合庫存的供應受限而增加。這些現在正在根據市場需求而減少。

Our unit cash costs in 2021 at $18.60 per tonne were marginally above guidance with higher input prices for contractors, explosives and energy. The work index also increased with vital improvements in cultural heritage protection, leading to a redesign of our blasting practices and longer haul distances to protect heritage sites.

由於承包商、炸藥和能源的投入價格上漲，我們 2021 年的單位現金成本為每噸 18.60 美元，略高於指引。隨著文化遺產保護方面的重大改進，工作指數也有所增加，導致我們重新設計了爆破作業並延長了運輸距離以保護遺產地。

There are 3 key drivers of unit costs in 2022. The most significant is a full year impact of higher input prices, which increased significantly in the second half of 2021. The second is around making the necessary investment in asset reliability with increased maintenance on our processing plants. We're also targeting further investments in our heritage and environment teams and continuing to invest at an increased level in studies for the next set of mines. These are conscious decisions which will strengthen us for the future.

2022 年單位成本有 3 個關鍵驅動因素。最重要的是投入價格上漲對全年的影響，這在 2021 年下半年顯著增加。第二個是圍繞對資產可靠性進行必要的投資，增加對我們的維護加工廠。我們還將進一步投資於我們的遺產和環境團隊，並繼續加大對下一組礦山研究的投資。這些是有意識的決定，將加強我們的未來。

The third driver is further increases in the work index, driven by a rise in waste movement and longer haul cycles. Now we expect to partly offset this through efficiency gains with about 80% of our haul truck fleet now fully autonomous. Overall, around half of the increase to $19.50 to $21 per tonne is driven by market factors and the remainder by the work index and longer-term investments to improve our operating performance. But overall, let's not lose sight of the fact that we achieved very strong financials with operating cash flow of $19 billion and free cash flow of $15 billion.

第三個驅動因素是工作指數的進一步增加，這是由廢物運輸的增加和更長的運輸週期推動的。現在，我們預計通過提高效率來部分抵消這一點，我們大約 80% 的運輸卡車車隊現在完全自主。總體而言，每噸 19.50 美元至 21 美元的漲幅中約有一半是由市場因素推動的，其餘部分是由工作指數和長期投資推動的，以改善我們的經營業績。但總的來說，我們不要忽視這樣一個事實，即我們實現了非常強勁的財務狀況，運營現金流為 190 億美元，自由現金流為 150 億美元。

Let's now take a further look at 2022. We expect the first half to remain challenging, with first production from Gudai-Darri in the second quarter and the ongoing ramp-up of the replacement mines. We have experienced some quality issues at the Mesa A wet plant and rectification work is underway. But until this is complete, we will continue to be constrained in the Robe River system. As a result, we expect to see elevated quantities of SP10 until midyear.

現在讓我們進一步看一下 2022 年。我們預計上半年仍將充滿挑戰，Gudai-Darri 將在第二季度進行首次生產，並且替代礦山的產能正在持續增加。我們在 Mesa A 濕廠遇到了一些質量問題，整改工作正在進行中。但在這完成之前，我們將繼續被限制在羅布河系統中。因此，我們預計到年中之前 SP10 的數量會有所增加。

In the second half, pressure on the system will ease with Gudai-Darri ramping up and replacement mines fully operational. We then expect SP10 to gradually decrease. We are advancing the studies that will enable us to operate within our medium-term capacity guidance of 345 million to 360 million tonnes a year and also making progress with the modernization of agreements with traditional owner partners. Just last week, we agreed a new social cultural heritage plan with the Noongar people. This enables us to progress the approvals process for Western Range, one of the key replacement mines in the 2025 to 2026 period.

下半年，隨著 Gudai-Darri 的增產和替代礦山的全面運營，該系統的壓力將得到緩解。然後我們預計 SP10 將逐漸下降。我們正在推進研究，使我們能夠在每年 3.45 億至 3.6 億噸的中期產能指導範圍內運營，並在與傳統業主合作夥伴的協議現代化方面取得進展。就在上週，我們與努加人達成了一項新的社會文化遺產計劃。這使我們能夠推進西部山脈（2025 年至 2026 年期間的主要替代礦山之一）的審批程序。

Moving on to aluminum, where we had our best financial performance ever, benefiting from the stronger pricing environment and higher premiums for primary metal to deliver EBITDA of $4.4 billion. This flowed through to both operating and free cash flow, which at $2.3 billion was more than 2.5x the 2020 level, with all 4 PacAl slate smelters making a robust contribution.

轉向鋁業，我們的財務表現有史以來最好，受益於更強勁的定價環境和更高的初級金屬溢價，實現了 44 億美元的 EBITDA。這流向了運營和自由現金流，為 23 億美元，是 2020 年水平的 2.5 倍以上，所有 4 家 PacAl 板岩冶煉廠都做出了強勁的貢獻。

Aluminum production was only 1% lower despite Kitimat operating at 25% of capacity following the strike, which commenced in July. While agreement was reached in October, it will take time to clean and repair the plot pots with a gradual restart late in the second quarter of 2022 and full capacity reached in December. Our underlying EBITDA margin was 38% for the full year with return on capital employed hitting 20% in the second half of the year. Overall ROCE averaged 16% for the year, up from just 3% in 2020.

儘管 Kitimat 在 7 月開始的罷工後以 25% 的產能運營，但鋁產量僅下降了 1%。雖然在 10 月達成了協議，但隨著 2022 年第二季度末逐步重啟並在 12 月達到滿負荷，清潔和修復地塊需要時間。我們全年的基本 EBITDA 利潤率為 38%，下半年的資本回報率達到 20%。今年整體 ROCE 平均為 16%，高於 2020 年的 3%。

And we are set to benefit further from price momentum this year with aluminum close to an all-time high, 12% higher than in the second half of 2021. This underlines why we believe this is the premier global integrated aluminum business.

我們將進一步受益於今年的價格勢頭，鋁接近歷史新高，比 2021 年下半年高出 12%。這強調了為什麼我們認為這是全球首屈一指的綜合鋁業務。

We continue to work on finding solutions to reduce our carbon footprint. The ELYSIS inert anode technology is an important contributor. We made significant progress in 2021 with first aluminum produced at the R&D center in Quebec and construction of larger commercial scale prototype cells underway at our Alma smelter.

我們將繼續努力尋找減少碳足蹟的解決方案。 ELYSIS 惰性陽極技術是一個重要貢獻者。我們在 2021 年取得了重大進展，在魁北克的研發中心生產了第一批鋁，並在我們的 Alma 冶煉廠建造了更大規模的商業規模原型電池。

On to copper. At $4 billion, underlying EBITDA was up 90%. The stronger market environment was the key driver by $2.2 billion. We also benefited from higher sales volumes of refined metal at Kennecott and temporarily higher gold grades at Oyu Tolgoi. These compensated for lower volumes at Escondida, where ongoing measures in response to COVID-19 continued to impact workforce availability. Our C1 unit costs at $0.82 per pound were down 26%, which was mainly volume related, in particular, the higher gold grades at Oyu Tolgoi, which is set to reverse in 2022.

上銅。基礎 EBITDA 為 40 億美元，增長了 90%。更強勁的市場環境是 22 億美元的主要推動力。我們還受益於 Kennecott 的精煉金屬銷量增加和奧尤陶勒蓋的黃金品位暫時較高。這些彌補了 Escondida 較低的產量，那裡針對 COVID-19 的持續措施繼續影響勞動力的可用性。我們的 C1 單位成本為每磅 0.82 美元，下降了 26%，這主要與數量有關，特別是奧尤陶勒蓋的較高黃金等級，這將在 2022 年逆轉。

Free cash flow was positive at $1.3 billion after paying $400 million to the Mongolian Tax Authority in relation to disputed items from 2013 to 2018 and $1.3 billion of investment mainly in the Oyu Tolgoi underground.

在 2013 年至 2018 年就爭議項目向蒙古稅務局支付 4 億美元以及主要在奧尤陶勒蓋地下投資 13 億美元之後，自由現金流為 13 億美元，為正數。

Turning to minerals. An important addition to the business was the $825 million acquisition of the Rincon lithium project in Argentina last December. It is set to be a long-life, low-cost asset, which will shape our battery materials portfolio. We're targeting completion in the first half. Demand conditions were strong across all sectors, but we did have some operational challenges. Titanium dioxide was 9% lower, with community disruptions followed by curtailment of operations at RBM in South Africa for around 3 months, coupled with an extended ramp-up period as well as unplanned maintenance at RTFT in Canada.

轉向礦物。該業務的一個重要補充是去年 12 月以 8.25 億美元收購了阿根廷的 Rincon 鋰項目。它將成為一種長壽命、低成本的資產，它將塑造我們的電池材料組合。我們的目標是在上半年完成。所有行業的需求狀況都很強勁，但我們確實遇到了一些運營挑戰。二氧化鈦下降了 9%，原因是社區中斷，隨後南非 RBM 的運營縮減了大約 3 個月，再加上加拿大 RTFT 的生產週期延長和計劃外維護。

At IOC, labor and equipment reliability issues impacted production. But a 68% increase in pellet prices boosted the financials. Our QMM operations in Madagascar continued to perform well, with production up by nearly 30% and decarbonization progressing to plan. Boron's performance also improved following some major planned maintenance. And diamond production rose in line with our 100% ownership of Diavik. And we also benefited from a sharp recovery in prices. Overall, EBITDA of $2.6 billion was up 52%, while operating cash flow increased to $1.4 billion and free cash flow to $0.8 billion.

在國際奧委會，勞動力和設備可靠性問題影響了生產。但顆粒價格上漲 68% 提振了財務狀況。我們在馬達加斯加的 QMM 業務繼續表現良好，產量增長了近 30%，脫碳也在按計劃進行。在進行了一些重大的計劃維護後，Boron 的性能也有所改善。鑽石產量的增長與我們對 Diavik 的 100% 所有權一致。我們還受益於價格的大幅回升。總體而言，EBITDA 為 26 億美元，增長 52%，而經營現金流增加至 14 億美元，自由現金流增加至 8 億美元。

You've seen our capital allocation slide many times before, and our disciplined approach is unchanged. We will also apply the same rigor to our decarbonization projects. These deliver a range of economic outcomes, but in aggregate, value accretive at a very modest carbon price.

您之前已經多次看到我們的資本配置下滑，我們的紀律方法沒有改變。我們還將對我們的脫碳項目採取同樣的嚴格要求。這些帶來了一系列經濟成果，但總的來說，以非常適中的碳價格增值。

Moving on to our capital forecast. This is consistent with our October seminar. We still expect a disciplined increase in our capital expenditure over the coming years. In 2022, it will be around $8 billion and between $9 billion and $10 billion in '23 and '24, which includes the ambition to invest up to $3 billion in growth each year. But it is highly dependent on opportunities being available. It's not a commitment or predetermined budget. If we cannot develop or find value-accretive options, we will simply not spend the money, but we'll follow our well-established capital allocation framework. The recent news that does mean we're more likely to be at the lower end of the range in 2023.

繼續我們的資本預測。這與我們十月的研討會是一致的。我們仍然預計未來幾年我們的資本支出將有規律地增加。到 2022 年，將達到 80 億美元左右，23 年和 24 年將在 90 億至 100 億美元之間，其中包括每年投資高達 30 億美元的增長目標。但這高度依賴於可用的機會。這不是承諾或預定預算。如果我們無法開發或找到增值選項，我們將根本不花錢，但我們將遵循我們完善的資本配置框架。最近的消息確實意味著我們更有可能在 2023 年處於該區間的低端。

The best estimate of investment to decarbonize the business stands at $7.5 billion until 2030, which includes about $1.5 billion over the next 3 years. Sustaining capital of $3.5 billion a year includes $1.5 billion for Pilbara iron ore, subject to ongoing inflationary pressure. Replacement capital is also unchanged at $2 billion to $3 billion a year. We are seeing some increases in the Pilbara projects of up to 15%, but this is mainly due to a longer time frames and remain within the boundaries of our overall guidance.

到 2030 年，該業務脫碳的最佳投資估計為 75 億美元，其中包括未來 3 年的約 15 億美元。每年 35 億美元的維持資本包括 15 億美元用於皮爾巴拉鐵礦石，但仍面臨持續的通脹壓力。重置資本也保持不變，為每年 20 億至 30 億美元。我們看到 Pilbara 項目的增幅高達 15%，但這主要是由於較長的時間框架，並且仍在我們總體指導的範圍內。

Lastly, it's just worth reiterating that any M&A such as Rincon is in addition to this. At our seminar, we disclosed our plans for decarbonizing the business with a tripling of the target by 2030. We believe this will safeguard the integrity of our assets over the longer term, reduce the risk profile of our cash flows and therefore, protect our cost of capital. Our focus over the next 3 years is on repowering the Pilbara, where we currently spend about $150 million on gas each year. We're now focused on expanding our tenure for wind and solar sites for the installation of 1 gigawatt of renewables. We believe this could replace up to 80% of the cost and support the diesel transition. It will abate about 1 million tonnes of CO2, 1/3 of our carbon emissions from the Pilbara.

最後，值得重申的是，Rincon 等任何併購都是除此之外的。在我們的研討會上，我們披露了到 2030 年將業務脫碳目標增加三倍的計劃。我們相信這將在長期內保護我們資產的完整性，降低我們現金流的風險狀況，從而保護我們的成本的資本。未來 3 年，我們的重點是為 Pilbara 重新供電，我們目前每年在天然氣上花費約 1.5 億美元。我們現在專注於擴大風能和太陽能站點的使用期限，以安裝 1 吉瓦的可再生能源。我們相信這可以替代高達 80% 的成本並支持柴油轉型。它將減少大約 100 萬噸二氧化碳，即我們皮爾巴拉碳排放量的 1/3。

Reaching a 15% reduction by 2025 is not going to be easy. It will require a lot of planning and rapid execution. The full electrification of our Pilbara system set to commence later this decade, including trucks and rail, will require further gigawatt scale renewables combined with advances in fleet technologies. Across the group, we're looking at multiple opportunities to decarbonize the business. And we've included some of these as appendices. One such example is at our Queensland alumina refinery, where the installation of heat recovery equipment could reduce the steam required for heating by up to 50% and eliminate 115,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions per year by 2024.

到 2025 年減少 15% 並非易事。這將需要大量的計劃和快速執行。我們將於本十年晚些時候開始的皮爾巴拉系統（包括卡車和鐵路）的全面電氣化將需要進一步的千兆瓦級可再生能源以及車隊技術的進步。在整個集團中，我們正在尋找使業務脫碳的多種機會。我們已經將其中的一些作為附錄。一個這樣的例子是在我們的昆士蘭氧化鋁精煉廠，安裝熱回收設備可以將加熱所需的蒸汽減少多達 50%，到 2024 年每年減少 115,000 噸二氧化碳排放。

Let's now have a look at the balance sheet. Net debt turned into net cash of $1.6 billion at the end of December. But let's not forget that this is just one point in time. Today, we have made a $7.7 billion dividend commitment, which we'll pay in April, moving us back into net debt territory. We also have a $1 billion Australian tax payment in June with respect to 2021 and $825 million for Rincon. This financial strength allows us to reinvest for growth, accelerate our own decarbonization and continue to pay attractive dividends in line with our policy.

現在讓我們看一下資產負債表。截至 12 月底，淨債務變成了 16 億美元的淨現金。但我們不要忘記，這只是一個時間點。今天，我們做出了 77 億美元的股息承諾，我們將在 4 月支付，讓我們回到淨債務領域。我們還在 6 月份為 2021 年繳納了 10 億澳元的澳大利亞稅款，為 Rincon 繳納了 8.25 億澳元的稅款。這種財務實力使我們能夠為增長進行再投資，加速我們自己的脫碳，並根據我們的政策繼續支付有吸引力的股息。

And finally, on to shareholder returns. Our policy is tried and tested and has resulted in record returns. Over the last 6 years, we have consistently exceeded the 40% to 60% range with an average payout ratio of 74%. Going forward, we've indicated our ambition of investing more in growth, but you should not expect us to hoard cash. We will continue to return any excess as we have in the past. The record earnings and cash flows in 2021 and continued strength of our balance sheet mean we have declared our highest ever full year dividend of $16.8 billion. This includes the final ordinary of $6.7 billion and final special of $1 billion and brings the payout ratio to 79%.

最後，關於股東回報。我們的政策經過反複試驗，並帶來了創紀錄的回報。在過去的 6 年中，我們始終以 74% 的平均派息率超過 40% 至 60% 的範圍。展望未來，我們已經表明了對增長進行更多投資的雄心，但您不應指望我們會囤積現金。我們將繼續像過去一樣退還任何多餘的東西。 2021 年創紀錄的收益和現金流以及我們資產負債表的持續強勁意味著我們宣布了 168 億美元的最高全年股息。這包括 67 億美元的最終普通股和 10 億美元的最終特別股，派息率達到 79%。

With that, let me pass back to Jakob.

有了這個，讓我回到雅各布。

Thank you, Peter. I'm convinced that the 4 objectives I said a year ago are the right ones. We have made tangible progress on each one on the back of a significant volume of work. In October, we launched a new strategy aligned with these objectives. This set out a long-term approach to make Rio Tinto a stronger and more relevant company for society and to secure future shareholder returns.

謝謝你，彼得。我確信我一年前所說的 4 個目標是正確的。在大量工作的支持下，我們在每一項上都取得了切實的進展。 10 月，我們推出了與這些目標相一致的新戰略。這制定了一個長期的方法，使力拓成為一家更強大、對社會更有影響力的公司，並確保未來的股東回報。

We've put in place the right structures and frameworks, creating an organization that is people-centric. We have established centers of excellence in communities and social performance and in energy efficiency and development, to name a few. In some areas, it will take time to make a lasting difference, but we have already achieved notable successes. The start of the underground mining at Oyu Tolgoi and the acquisition of Rincon are 2 standout examples. They're both driving our strategy implementation, are aligned with our objectives and will benefit our shareholders for decades to come.

我們已經建立了正確的結構和框架，創建了一個以人為本的組織。我們在社區和社會績效以及能源效率和發展方面建立了卓越中心，僅舉幾例。在某些領域，要產生持久的影響需要時間，但我們已經取得了顯著的成功。 Oyu Tolgoi 開始地下採礦和收購 Rincon 就是兩個突出的例子。它們都在推動我們的戰略實施，與我們的目標保持一致，並將在未來幾十年使我們的股東受益。

We have also addressed how we engage with stakeholders. We had become too transactional, relying too much on agreements at the expense of developing proper, mutually beneficial relationships. I'm determined that Rio becomes a more inclusive and diverse place to work, where people live our values, feel empowered to challenge decisions and speak up freely if something doesn't feel right. There's a lot of work underway, including making our camps and villages safer. It also means increasing diversity, including gender diversity and lifting indigenous representation. We're investing $50 million to retain, attract and grow indigenous professionals and leaders in our Australian business. We are already seeing real improvements in this area.

我們還討論了我們如何與利益相關者互動。我們變得過於交易，過於依賴協議，而犧牲了發展適當的互利關係。我決心讓里約成為一個更具包容性和多元化的工作場所，人們在這裡踐行我們的價值觀，感到有權挑戰決策，如果感覺不對勁，可以自由發言。正在進行大量工作，包括讓我們的營地和村莊更安全。這也意味著增加多樣性，包括性別多樣性和提高土著代表性。我們正在投資 5000 萬美元來留住、吸引和培養我們澳大利亞業務中的土著專業人士和領導者。我們已經看到這一領域的真正進步。

We're also strengthening our communities and social performance work, taking a different approach to how we engage and operate. We have made progress in resetting relationships and agreements with traditional owners, including the [Butugunti], [Indiscernible] and Binigura people. We're proud to have agreed on our first codesign social cultural and heritage management plan in the Pilbara. This is with the Innawonga Aboriginal Corporation and enable us to move forward with the Western Range project in a way that reflects the views and wishes of the traditional owners of the land.

我們還在加強我們的社區和社會績效工作，對我們的參與和運營方式採取不同的方法。我們在重置與傳統所有者的關係和協議方面取得了進展，包括 [Butugunti]、[Indiscernible] 和 Binigura 人。我們很自豪能夠在皮爾巴拉就我們的第一個共同設計的社會文化和遺產管理計劃達成一致。這與因納旺加土著公司合作，使我們能夠以反映土地傳統所有者的觀點和願望的方式推進西部山脈項目。

To reinforce and embed this approach, we're rolling out enhanced cultural awareness training for all employees. This will promote better, more informed decisions while improving relationships and outcomes for traditional owners, indigenous communities and employees. And to support and guide our work, we have established an Australian Advisory Group. It will have a key role in being a sounding board for Rio Tinto on policies and positions that are important to our Australian business.

為了加強和嵌入這種方法，我們正在為所有員工推出增強的文化意識培訓。這將促進更好、更明智的決策，同時改善傳統所有者、土著社區和僱員的關係和成果。為了支持和指導我們的工作，我們成立了一個澳大利亞諮詢小組。它將成為力拓在對我們澳大利亞業務重要的政策和立場上的傳聲筒方面發揮關鍵作用。

Turning to our operational performance. The safety, health and well-being of our people remains our #1 priority. I'm proud of our performance in this area. We work hard at this every day and are becoming more sophisticated in monitoring, evaluating and addressing risks. While being the best operator is in our DNA, we won't restore that instantly. It's a multiyear journey. However, through the Rio Tinto Safe Production System, we will safely unlock real and sustainable improvements. Let me stress, this is not about stripping out costs. It's about sustainably unlocking capacity and improving operational stability.

談到我們的運營業績。我們人民的安全、健康和福祉仍然是我們的第一要務。我為我們在這方面的表現感到自豪。我們每天都在為此努力工作，並且在監控、評估和應對風險方面變得更加成熟。雖然成為最好的運營商是我們的 DNA，但我們不會立即恢復。這是一個多年的旅程。然而，通過力拓安全生產系統，我們將安全地開啟真正和可持續的改進。讓我強調一下，這不是要剝離成本。這是關於可持續地釋放產能和提高運營穩定性。

It is operator led, targeting bottlenecks and inefficiencies. We are focused on having our leaders understand it's important to empower their frontline. And for the frontline to recognize that they can now make their job safer, simpler, faster, cheaper, smarter, better. It's a galvanizing program that will deliver tangible benefits, and we are pursuing it with rigor. The results we are seeing from the initial pilot side after only half a year's deployment confirmed the potential of this initiative.

它由操作員主導，針對瓶頸和低效率。我們專注於讓我們的領導者了解賦予他們一線權力的重要性。並且讓前線人員認識到他們現在可以讓他們的工作更安全、更簡單、更快、更便宜、更智能、更好。這是一個能帶來切實利益的激勵計劃，我們正在嚴格執行它。僅僅半年的部署，我們從最初的試點方面看到的結果證實了這一舉措的潛力。

For example, Canaccord's concentrate our asset utilization ratio improved 3.5% compared to the previous 12 months. And at West Angeles, drilling utilization rates improved by 12%, equivalent to 1,000 additional meters per day. We will look to replicate best practice and significantly ramp-up the Rio Tinto Safe Production System rollout in 2022.

例如，Canaccord 的集中資產利用率與前 12 個月相比提高了 3.5%。在西安吉利斯，鑽井利用率提高了 12%，相當於每天增加 1,000 米。我們將尋求復制最佳實踐，並在 2022 年大力推廣力拓安全生產系統。

The world will have to massively transform to combat climate change and undertake an unprecedented energy transition. Mining is bound to play a vital role. I attended COP26 in Glasgow last year to engage with governments and other partners on the critical role we are playing. We must start by addressing our own footprint. Rio Tinto is amongst the biggest electricity users in the Western world. We also have significant land holdings.

世界將不得不進行大規模轉型以應對氣候變化並進行前所未有的能源轉型。採礦勢必會發揮至關重要的作用。去年我參加了在格拉斯哥舉行的 COP26，與各國政府和其他合作夥伴就我們正在發揮的關鍵作用進行交流。我們必須從解決我們自己的足跡開始。力拓是西方世界最大的電力用戶之一。我們還持有大量土地。

This provides a great opportunity, but also comes with responsibility and an obligation. But if we do it well, we can make a real difference. This will also lead to new business opportunities. Our new climate targets are underpinned by an intention to invest $7.5 billion. We will be disciplined. And these investments will, in aggregate, be value-accretive at modest carbon prices. They will also safeguard the long-term cash flow of our assets and help us maintain an attractive cost of capital.

這提供了一個很好的機會，但也帶來了責任和義務。但是，如果我們做得好，我們可以帶來真正的改變。這也將帶來新的商機。我們新的氣候目標以投資 75 億美元為基礎。我們將受到紀律處分。總的來說，這些投資將以適度的碳價格增值。它們還將保護我們資產的長期現金流，並幫助我們保持具有吸引力的資本成本。

We are mobilizing the organization, identifying various opportunities to decarbonize our assets and invest in renewable power. For example, we are developing engineering plans for 1 gigawatt of Pilbara renewables. And we are working with suppliers and technology providers on ways to convert from diesel-powered trucks and trains to battery-powered fleets. With various partners, we are working on a number of potential technologies to decarbonize our value chains.

我們正在動員該組織，尋找各種機會使我們的資產脫碳並投資於可再生能源。例如，我們正在為 1 吉瓦的皮爾巴拉可再生能源製定工程計劃。我們正在與供應商和技術提供商合作，研究如何將柴油動力卡車和火車轉變為電池動力車隊。我們正在與各種合作夥伴一起研究一些潛在的技術，以使我們的價值鏈脫碳。

Our ELYSIS joint venture with Alcoa are supported by Apple and the governments of Canada and Quebec is the most advanced. Last year, we produced aluminum with 0 direct carbon emission at fairly large scale. At our Alma smelter in Quebec, we are now scaling up to full commercial size sales in 2023. And commercialization of this groundbreaking technology remains on track from 2024.

我們與 Alcoa 的 ELYSIS 合資企業得到了 Apple 的支持，加拿大政府和魁北克政府是最先進的。去年，我們大規模生產了0直接碳排放的鋁。在我們位于魁北克的 Alma 冶煉廠，我們現在正在擴大到 2023 年的完全商業規模銷售。從 2024 年起，這項突破性技術的商業化仍將繼續進行。

This is even more exciting when you consider the prospect of combining ELYSIS with renewable power like we have in Canada, Iceland, New Zealand and Tasmania. At the same time, we're exploring a number of pathways to produce green steel, exploring green hydrogen-based DIR in Canada and in Australia and developing partnerships with BlueScope, Baowu, Nippon Steel and POSCO as we look to decarbonize the entire value chain. These type of partnerships are key to cracking the code on emissions.

當您考慮將 ELYSIS 與加拿大、冰島、新西蘭和塔斯馬尼亞州的可再生能源相結合的前景時，這更加令人興奮。與此同時，我們正在探索生產綠色鋼鐵的多種途徑，在加拿大和澳大利亞探索綠色氫基 DIR，並與博思格、寶武、新日鐵和 POSCO 建立合作夥伴關係，以實現整個價值鏈的脫碳.這些類型的合作夥伴關係是破解排放密碼的關鍵。

We also need allies in government and industry association to join us in making the energy transition happen. But it isn't just about decarbonizing our business and value chains. There's also a huge opportunity for Rio Tinto. All the materials we produce are fundamental for today, even more so for the energy transition and beyond, including iron ore. We are well placed to grow in order to meet this demand. In the past year, we have made focus on various options at different stages of development.

我們還需要政府和行業協會的盟友與我們一起實現能源轉型。但這不僅僅是讓我們的業務和價值鏈脫碳。力拓也有巨大的機會。我們生產的所有材料都是當今的基礎，對於能源轉型及以後更是如此，包括鐵礦石。為了滿足這一需求，我們已經做好了發展的準備。在過去的一年裡，我們專注於不同發展階段的各種選擇。

We have the ambition to double our growth capital to $3 billion a year from 2023 onwards as we develop new options. We're also looking at ways to bring projects on faster, always with a focus on value and capital discipline. This starts with exploration where Rio Tinto has consistently been a leader. We have a strong portfolio of exploration projects with activity in 18 countries across 7 commodities. We also have an attractive pipeline of other projects at various stages. We will ramp-up production from Gudai-Darri this half and are advancing other Pilbara projects such as Western Range. We're progressing Simandou resolution and Guinea to name a few. Jadar is an amazing project, which we believe in, but you will all have seen the challenges we are facing. We are disappointed by this development. We are exploring all options and remain willing to meaningfully engage with all stakeholders.

隨著我們開發新的選擇，我們的雄心是從 2023 年起將我們的成長資本翻一番，達到每年 30 億美元。我們還在尋找加快項目實施的方法，始終關注價值和資本紀律。這要從力拓一直處於領先地位的探索開始。我們擁有強大的勘探項目組合，在 18 個國家/地區開展 7 種商品的活動。我們還擁有處於不同階段的其他項目的有吸引力的管道。我們將在今年上半年提高 Gudai-Darri 的產量，並正在推進其他皮爾巴拉項目，例如 Western Range。我們正在推進西芒杜決議和幾內亞，僅舉幾例。 Jadar 是一個了不起的項目，我們相信這一點，但你們都會看到我們面臨的挑戰。我們對這一發展感到失望。我們正在探索所有選項，並願意與所有利益相關者進行有意義的接觸。

Finally, we demonstrated our willingness to grow through acquisitions, something we have not done for a decade. The addition of the Rincon project in Argentina brings growth in a commodity essential to the energy transition and with a very attractive outlook. We will continue to look for additional opportunities, but we'll only pursue ones that create value. We will not chase volume or commodities where there isn't value or asset that don't fit our portfolio.

最後，我們展示了通過收購實現增長的意願，這是我們十年來沒有做過的事情。阿根廷 Rincon 項目的加入帶來了對能源轉型至關重要的商品的增長，並具有非常有吸引力的前景。我們將繼續尋找更多機會，但我們只會追求創造價值的機會。我們不會追逐沒有不適合我們投資組合的價值或資產的交易量或商品。

But without a doubt, the most significant development in terms of growth was resetting the relationship with the government of Mongolia and Turquoise Hill. One of the highlights of my career was to stand side-by-side with the Prime Minister of Mongolia as we commenced underground mining. It was the culmination of years of hard work and dedication to develop such a complex greenfield project. I would like to thank the Prime Minister for his commitment to reaching this agreement, which also has the support of the Mongolian Parliament. It demonstrates to the world the attractiveness of Mongolia as an investment destination. Together, we have now unlocked the most valuable and complex part of the mine, with the first sustainable production expected in the first half of 2023.

但毫無疑問，增長方面最重要的發展是重置與蒙古政府和綠松石山的關係。我職業生涯的亮點之一是在我們開始地下採礦時與蒙古總理並肩站立。這是多年來開發如此復雜的綠地項目的辛勤工作和奉獻精神的結晶。我要感謝總理對達成這一協議的承諾，該協議也得到了蒙古議會的支持。它向世界展示了蒙古作為投資目的地的吸引力。現在，我們共同解鎖了該礦最有價值和最複雜的部分，預計將在 2023 年上半年實現第一次可持續生產。

At peak production, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to operate in the first quartile of the cost curve and produce around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year from 2028 onwards. This additional copper will come on-stream at a time when copper demand is expected to be robust.

在生產高峰期，Oyu Tolgoi 預計將在成本曲線的前四分之一內運營，從 2028 年起每年生產約 500,000 噸銅。這些額外的銅將在銅需求預計強勁的時候投產。

So let me summarize. In 2021, we set out 4 key objectives to make Rio Tinto an even stronger company. We also set a clear strategy for the company to grow, decarbonize and maintain our strict capital allocation in order to pay attractive dividends. We have made progress on a number of fronts and demonstrated how we are changing and strengthening Rio Tinto. We did this while achieving strong financial results across all our product groups and we had our third fatality-free year in a row. Our culture is evolving and improving, but we must work even harder to strengthen relationships in a respectful way, both internally and externally. We clearly have more to do, and we will continue to work hard throughout 2022 and beyond. But crucially, our underlying business is strong, and we have a clear strategy to make Rio Tinto even stronger for the long term. Thank you.

所以讓我總結一下。 2021 年，我們設定了 4 個關鍵目標，以使力拓成為更強大的公司。我們還為公司製定了明確的戰略，以實現增長、脫碳和保持嚴格的資本配置，以支付有吸引力的股息。我們在多個方面取得了進展，並展示了我們如何改變和加強力拓。我們做到了這一點，同時在所有產品組中都取得了強勁的財務業績，並且我們連續第三年實現了無死亡事故。我們的文化在不斷發展和完善，但我們必須更加努力地以尊重的方式加強內部和外部的關係。我們顯然還有更多工作要做，我們將在 2022 年及以後繼續努力。但至關重要的是，我們的基礎業務很強大，而且我們有一個明確的戰略，可以讓力拓在長期內變得更加強大。謝謝你。

We will now move to questions. Operator, please open the lines.

我們現在將轉向問題。接線員，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Paul Young from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您今天的第一個問題來自高盛的 Paul Young。

Jakob, Peter and Menno, just the financials, gents. So I have a question on growth, in particular, Jakob on OT. No project at the moment. Your portfolio seems that easy to execute in advance at the moment. So fantastic to see the government approvals. Jakob, the question is that net of the negotiations, i.e., is the investment agreement now rock-solid with the government?

雅各布、彼得和門諾，只是財務，紳士們。所以我有一個關於增長的問題，特別是關於 OT 的 Jakob。暫時沒有項目。目前，您的投資組合似乎很容易提前執行。看到政府批准真是太棒了。雅各布，問題是談判後的淨資產，即投資協議現在與政府是否堅如磐石？

We feel very comfortable. We feel that it is an agreement, a wide agreement with the Parliament in Mongolia. There's a couple of remaining issues to be solved. There's a tax dispute, but you have tax disputes from time to time. I'm absolutely convinced that with the resetting of the partnership of the relationship in Mongolia that we will be able to also solve issues in the future in a very constructive manner. So yes, I think it was a very important moment to overcome. Thanks for the question.

我們覺得很舒服。我們認為這是一項協議，與蒙古議會達成的廣泛協議。還有幾個問題需要解決。有稅務糾紛，但你時常有稅務糾紛。我絕對相信，隨著蒙古關係夥伴關係的重置，我們也將能夠以非常建設性的方式解決未來的問題。所以是的，我認為這是一個非常重要的克服時刻。謝謝你的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Fairclough, Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Fairclough。

Just to carry on with the growth theme. I mean grow is the first word on the title of your presentation deck, and you've spoken a lot about it today. so a couple of fairly simple philosophical questions. First, you're a $130 billion company. Can you actually grow and have it make a difference and have it create value? And then second, do you think that your efforts to deliver growth over the last few years have been successful and ultimately, had a positive impact on Rio Tinto?

只是為了繼續增長主題。我的意思是成長是你的演示文稿標題上的第一個詞，你今天已經說了很多。所以幾個相當簡單的哲學問題。首先，你是一家價值 1300 億美元的公司。你能真正成長並讓它有所作為並創造價值嗎？其次，您認為您在過去幾年實現增長的努力是否成功並最終對力拓產生了積極影響？

Well, thank you, Jason. It is very clear, given the size of our company and given the markets we are facing, Rio Tinto in aggregate will never be a high-growth company. But we haven't grown for quite a while. And we can see that we can move the company towards modest growth within a strict capital allocation framework. We did not grow last year. If you look at the guidance for this year, we have included modest growth, but that's from our existing business.

好吧，謝謝你，傑森。很明顯，鑑於我們公司的規模和我們所面臨的市場，力拓總體上永遠不會是一家高增長公司。但是我們已經很久沒有長大了。我們可以看到，我們可以在嚴格的資本配置框架內推動公司實現適度增長。去年我們沒有增長。如果你看一下今年的指導，我們已經包括了適度的增長，但這是來自我們現有的業務。

What I've talked about #3 of my 4 objectives about excellent development is really about building the portfolio to the next decade and the decade beyond. And that's what we are doing when we unlock Oyu Tolgoi. And that's what we are doing when we are going in and buying Rincon is -- we don't want to go out and spend a lot of money at probably the high end of the cycle. And therefore, I thought it was quite intelligent to go in and buy a project that is -- you can buy at a modest price and then develop the project. So we do want to excel and development, but we don't want to lose the strict capital allocation. I think you're absolutely right in making the point. We're never going to be a high-growth company. But if we can have a modest, stable growth going forward, that will make imminent sense. We have the competencies in Rio Tinto to be the right owner of a number of assets that we don't have today. That's how we're developing our future. Thank you.

我所說的關於卓越發展的 4 個目標中的第 3 個實際上是關於構建未來十年和未來十年的投資組合。這就是我們解鎖奧尤陶勒蓋時所做的事情。當我們進入併購買 Rincon 時，這就是我們正在做的事情 - 我們不想出去並在周期的高端花費大量資金。因此，我認為進入併購買一個項目是非常明智的 - 你可以以適中的價格購買然後開發該項目。所以我們確實想出類拔萃和發展，但我們不想失去嚴格的資本配置。我認為你的觀點是完全正確的。我們永遠不會成為一家高增長的公司。但是，如果我們能夠在未來實現適度、穩定的增長，那將是迫在眉睫的事情。我們在力拓有能力成為我們今天沒有的許多資產的正確所有者。這就是我們開發未來的方式。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Hayden Bairstow from Macquarie.

您的下一個問題來自麥格理的 Hayden Bairstow。

Just a question on the CapEx outlook. Obviously, you've upgraded cost guidance in the Pilbara. But your view on your ability to actually spend the money, I mean, obviously, markets are fairly tight, and labor still tight. Is there a risk of some slippage in that number, particularly for this year, I guess? But just -- it's a line of these projects up and get everything spent that you need to?

只是關於資本支出前景的問題。顯然，您已經升級了 Pilbara 的成本指南。但是你對你實際花錢的能力的看法，我的意思是，很明顯，市場相當緊張，勞動力仍然緊張。我猜這個數字是否有下滑的風險，尤其是今年？但只是 - 這是一系列這些項目，並得到你需要的一切？

Yes. No, it's a very good point. Peter, why don't you underpin a little bit? Because there's fundamentally no changes since the capital markets update in October, but you always have a few things that goes a bit slower and certain things we accelerate. Maybe you want to flesh it out, Peter?

是的。不，這是一個很好的觀點。彼得，你為什麼不支持一點？因為自 10 月份資本市場更新以來，基本上沒有任何變化，但你總是有一些事情進展得有點慢，而某些事情我們會加速。也許你想充實它，彼得？

Thanks very much, Jakob. And thanks for the question, Hayden. I think for the capital guidance this year, we're very comfortable. And clearly, we are still finishing off the tail of the replacement projects that we bought in the Pilbara, the 90 million tonnes. And as we said, Gudai-Darri will come in, in Q2 for first production. So that is a very, clearly, important components of our capital plan this year.

非常感謝，雅各布。謝謝你的問題，海登。我認為對於今年的資本指導，我們非常滿意。顯然，我們仍在完成我們在皮爾巴拉購買的 9000 萬噸替換項目的尾部。正如我們所說，Gudai-Darri 將在第二季度進行首次生產。因此，這是我們今年資本計劃中非常非常重要的組成部分。

In terms of sustaining capital, in terms of that replacement and in terms of the growth with Oyu Tolgoi, all very, very clear. I think as we get forward into 2023 and '24, Hayden, we've set that, and we've been very explicit that the growth component of our capital plan is an ambition. We're working on a range of projects there that will come through. And it all depends on us really finalizing value-accretive plans as to exactly when that capital comes through. If we don't have the projects that are ready to progress, we won't spend the capital, and we'll just put it to our normal sort of capital allocation framework that we have. So I think that's very clear. Clearly, the news on Jadar does probably put back some of our capital spend. But broadly, I think we're very comfortable with the framework that we set out. Thanks, Hayden.

就維持資本而言，就替代以及與奧尤陶勒蓋的增長而言，一切都非常非常清楚。我認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年和 24 年，海登，我們已經設定了這一點，並且我們非常明確地表明，我們的資本計劃的增長部分是一個雄心壯志。我們正在那裡開展一系列將要通過的項目。而這一切都取決於我們真正敲定增值計劃，以確定資金何時到位。如果我們沒有準備好推進的項目，我們不會花費資金，我們只會將其放入我們擁有的正常的資本分配框架中。所以我認為這很清楚。顯然，關於 Jadar 的消息可能確實會減少我們的一些資本支出。但總的來說，我認為我們對我們制定的框架感到非常滿意。謝謝，海登。

Your next question comes from the line of Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alain Gabriel。

My question is on Gudai-Darri and the replacement projects in the Pilbara. Can you give granularity on the operating challenges there beyond COVID? And how do you see the risk of further slippage into Q3? And in a hypothetical scenario where the ramp-up continues to stall, do you have enough flexibility in your system to talk up volumes with SP10? Would that constitute -- or would the slippage contribute to risk to your full year volume guidance?

我的問題是關於 Gudai-Darri 和皮爾巴拉的替代項目。您能否詳細說明 COVID 之外的運營挑戰？您如何看待進一步滑入第三季度的風險？在增長繼續停滯的假設場景中，您的系統是否有足夠的靈活性來使用 SP10 提高音量？這會構成 - 還是滑點會對您的全年銷量指導造成風險？

Yes. Thank you. Let me start off and then hand over to Peter. Look, I visited Gudai-Darri in the first half of last year. There was a really, really good progress. What unfortunately has happened as part of Gudai-Darri is that we haven't been able, because of COVID, to have the same inspection, quality inspections of the material. So when a number of things arrived at site, we had to do quite a lot of rework. And that has been quite limited access to people to the project in the Pilbara because of the closure of the borders. So that has led to delays. I'm very excited that the borders are opening next Thursday. I'm going there myself, and I'm really looking forward to see how we come back on track. But Peter, why don't you share the numbers on CapEx and the question on SP10?

是的。謝謝你。讓我開始，然後交給彼得。看，我去年上半年訪問了Gudai-Darri。有一個非常非常好的進展。不幸的是，作為 Gudai-Darri 的一部分，由於 COVID 的原因，我們無法對材料進行相同的檢查和質量檢查。所以當很多東西到達現場時，我們不得不做很多返工。由於邊境關閉，人們進入皮爾巴拉項目的機會非常有限。所以這導致了延誤。邊境將於下週四開放，我感到非常興奮。我自己要去那裡，我真的很期待看到我們如何回到正軌。但是彼得，你為什麼不分享資本支出的數字和 SP10 的問題？

Thanks very much, and thanks for the question. I mean clearly, Gudai-Darri coming through is very important. And right now, we're through a lot of the work. We are now moving towards sort of first production, as we said in the second quarter. all of those issues that we've had around COVID, around labor constraints, around rework, we've worked through a lot of those, but we still have work ahead. So it is very important Gudai-Darri coming in. If that doesn't, if any slippage, that would just result in us -- we still have the flexibility in the system, but it would result, as you say, and just increase the production of SP10 as -- to fill the gap, but we have those options.

非常感謝，感謝您的提問。我的意思很清楚，Gudai-Darri 的到來非常重要。現在，我們完成了很多工作。正如我們在第二季度所說的那樣，我們現在正朝著第一次生產的方向發展。我們在 COVID、勞動力限制、返工方面遇到的所有這些問題，我們已經解決了很多問題，但我們仍有工作要做。因此，Gudai-Darri 的加入非常重要。如果沒有，如果有任何滑點，那隻會導致我們——我們仍然擁有系統的靈活性，但正如你所說，它會導致，並且只會增加SP10 的生產是為了填補空白，但我們有這些選擇。

I think in terms of the other projects, I mean, the main one we pointed out is around Robe River system and some issues that we've had around Misa A. We're working through those, and we would expect Robe River system to be up and running at capacity when that's resolved. Thanks, Alain.

我認為就其他項目而言，我的意思是，我們指出的主要項目是圍繞 Robe River 系統以及我們在 Misa A 周圍遇到的一些問題。我們正在解決這些問題，我們希望 Robe River 系統能夠解決該問題後，可以啟動並滿負荷運行。謝謝，阿蘭。

Your next question comes from the line of Lyndon Fagan from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Lyndon Fagan。

Look, my first question is on the iron ore cost guidance, which now puts you well above BHP and Fortescue in terms of unit costs. I'm wondering when you reflect on that, what the key differences are between the Rio Tinto business and your main competitors in the Pilbara? And I'm also interested if there's any potential to rein them in, given that the seminar last year showed the work index going up in 2024.

聽著，我的第一個問題是關於鐵礦石成本指導的，現在就單位成本而言，這讓你遠高於 BHP 和 Fortescue。我想知道當您反思這一點時，力拓業務與您在皮爾巴拉的主要競爭對手之間的主要區別是什麼？鑑於去年的研討會顯示工作指數在 2024 年上升，我也很感興趣是否有可能控制他們。

And the next question is just related. There's still really no mention of Simandou in the presentation today. And obviously, it's the elephant in the room when it comes to the iron ore market. When do you think you'll be in a position to articulate the potential scope for that project?

下一個問題只是相關的。今天的演講中仍然沒有提到西芒杜。很明顯，當談到鐵礦石市場時，它就是房間裡的大象。您認為您何時能夠闡明該項目的潛在範圍？

Yes. Thank you. Let me just start off on the Simandou and introduce the first question while Peter will explain to you the differences. On Simandou, we're not saying too much. And that's actually because we're working very, very hard on it. I myself visited Guinea in December. And every week, we have more people in Conagra. We are really ramping up our presence in Guinea. There's intense discussions with the government amongst the joint venture partners and between the 2 consortia. So the reason why we're not saying a lot is we are actually really working hard on trying to find the right solution.

是的。謝謝你。讓我從 Simandou 開始並介紹第一個問題，而 Peter 將向您解釋差異。關於西芒杜，我們並沒有說太多。這實際上是因為我們正在非常非常努力地工作。我本人在 12 月訪問了幾內亞。每週，我們在康尼格拉都有更多的人。我們確實在增加我們在幾內亞的存在。合資夥伴之間以及兩個財團之間與政府進行了激烈的討論。所以我們沒有說太多的原因是我們實際上正在努力尋找正確的解決方案。

The government is very keen on seeing the project moving forward. We are very keen to participate. It has to be done to the right standards. I think we agree on that. And now, we just have to get the work done and define the right project. But it's big, and it's complex. So I hope that we can get some good progress this year and tell you more about it. but there's little in the middle of discussions right now that I can share. I would say, you call it the elephant in the room, I don't see it like that. I mean we are -- the global iron ore market is 1.8 billion tonnes. If you have, say, 100 million tonnes development, it's the kind of replacement that you need.

政府非常希望看到該項目向前推進。我們非常熱衷於參與。它必須按照正確的標准進行。我認為我們同意這一點。現在，我們只需要完成工作並定義正確的項目。但它很大，而且很複雜。所以我希望我們今年能取得一些好的進展，並告訴你更多關於它的信息。但現在我可以分享的討論很少。我會說，你稱它為房間裡的大象，我不這麼認為。我的意思是我們是——全球鐵礦石市場為 18 億噸。例如，如果你有 1 億噸的開發，那麼它就是你需要的替代品。

And in any case, it's a much higher quality than the Pilbara. So it doesn't compete directly. I think it would fit very well to our portfolio. And I'm also very excited about joint venturing with our customers on this front. So I think it serves many purposes, Simandou. And I don't think you should see that as an elephant in the room.

無論如何，它的質量比皮爾巴拉高得多。所以它不直接競爭。我認為它非常適合我們的投資組合。我也對在這方面與我們的客戶進行合資感到非常興奮。所以我認為它有很多用途，西芒杜。而且我認為您不應該將其視為房間裡的大象。

Coming back to the Pilbara, I just want to take one step back and remind you, this is an amazing asset. It had a free cash flow of $15 billion last year. It's one of the world's largest industrial assets. I'm absolutely convinced that Simon Trott and his team are doing all the right things. But I just want to say to you what we're doing right now, you will see the results of 2 and 3 years down the road. it's not the kind of assets you do the right things, and then next quarter, things are really changing around.

回到皮爾巴拉，我只想退後一步，提醒你，這是一項了不起的資產。它去年的自由現金流為 150 億美元。它是世界上最大的工業資產之一。我絕對相信 Simon Trott 和他的團隊正在做所有正確的事情。但我只想告訴你我們現在正在做什麼，你會看到未來 2 年和 3 年的成果。這不是你做正確事情的那種資產，然後下個季度，事情真的發生了變化。

And we are at a crossroad right now with 90 million tonnes of replacement volumes, trying to come in, as Peter was just explaining, and it will take a while before we can get the efficiencies in place. The Safe Production System is also going to help us a lot. But again, we got to be patient here. It's a multiyear journey. Peter, you might like to just share the development of cost.

正如彼得剛剛解釋的那樣，我們現在正處於一個十字路口，有 9000 萬噸的替換量試圖進入，我們需要一段時間才能實現效率。安全生產體係也對我們有很大幫助。但同樣，我們必須在這裡保持耐心。這是一個多年的旅程。彼得，你可能想分享一下成本的發展。

Thanks very much, Jakob. What we said in guidance when we went into 2021 was that we thought we'd be about 17 20 We come at 18 60 as we said. And that a lot of that increase was really 2 factors. One, in the second half, we did see higher input prices into the business. And we also did see some slippage in the projects for all those reasons we talked about around COVID and labor constraints in Western Australia.

非常感謝，雅各布。當我們進入 2021 年時，我們在指導中所說的是，我們認為我們會在 17 20 歲左右，正如我們所說的那樣，我們會在 18 60 歲時到來。很多增長實際上是兩個因素。一，在下半年，我們確實看到該業務的投入價格上漲。由於我們談到的所有這些原因，我們也確實看到了項目中的一些滑點，這些原因是關於西澳大利亞的 COVID 和勞動力限制。

As we look into 2022, we're being very deliberate, I think, as to what we're going to do. Because we're absolutely clear, we do need to put some more money into some of the plants, in the Pilbara. We absolutely do need to make sure that we're putting the right investments in studies in the future because we've got to be thinking about the replacement mines that will come in, in the middle of the decade as well.

當我們展望 2022 年時，我認為我們正在非常慎重地考慮我們將要做什麼。因為我們非常清楚，我們確實需要在皮爾巴拉的一些工廠投入更多資金。我們絕對需要確保我們在未來的研究中投入了正確的投資，因為我們必須考慮在本世紀中期也會出現的替代礦山。

And we do, as you said, have to deal with higher sort of work index. But that is where the productivity play really comes into importance. So I think that's -- those are the drivers. I think we're being very deliberate about what we're doing. I think, as Jakob said, this is a multiyear program of work for us to really, I think, get the Pilbara where it can be. But in the meantime, I'll just reiterate that those fantastic sort of financial results and the fact it did actually give a 100% return on capital employed in 2021. Thanks, Lyndon.

正如你所說，我們確實必須處理更高級別的工作指數。但這就是生產力發揮真正重要的地方。所以我認為那是 - 那些是驅動因素。我認為我們對我們正在做的事情非常慎重。我認為，正如 Jakob 所說，這是一個多年的工作計劃，讓我們真正地，我認為，讓 Pilbara 到達它可能的地方。但與此同時，我將重申這些出色的財務業績，以及它確實提供了 2021 年所用資本 100% 的回報這一事實。謝謝，林登。

Your next question comes from the line of Liam Fitzpatrick, Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Liam Fitzpatrick。

Jakob and Peter, just another one on Simandou, but more from an ESG perspective. From the discussions that you've had so far, what is giving you comfort that Rio can participate in this project without risking your goal of impeccable ESG credentials? And are there any sort of specifics you can give us over some of the ESG-related challenges that you're aiming to address and derisk with your partners?

Jakob 和 Peter，這只是 Simandou 的另一位，但更多的是從 ESG 的角度來看。從您迄今為止的討論中，您認為 Rio 可以參與這個項目，而不用冒著您獲得無可挑剔的 ESG 證書的風險，是什麼讓您感到欣慰？對於您打算與合作夥伴一起解決和應對的一些與 ESG 相關的挑戰，您是否可以向我們提供任何具體的信息？

Yes. Look, I can give you two things. First of all, when I was visiting the government and meeting with the President, I made it very clear, it's a red line for Rio Tinto so all areas. E, environmental. It's highly sensitive. It's about biodiversity. The chimpanzees, et cetera, it has to be impeccable. S is social about in-migration that we have everything controlled, and that has to be done together with the government. And G, of course, there has to be integrity in everything we do. So that's absolutely a red line.

是的。聽著，我可以給你兩件事。首先，當我訪問政府並與總統會面時，我說得很清楚，這是力拓所有領域的紅線。 E、環保。它非常敏感。這是關於生物多樣性的。黑猩猩等等，它必須是無可挑剔的。 S 是關於移民的社會性，我們控制了一切，這必須與政府一起完成。 G，當然，我們所做的一切都必須誠信。所以這絕對是一條紅線。

The second part that gives me a lot of confidence is that if you look carefully and listen carefully to what Chinese leaders are talking about, they're actually emphasizing the same things. So I think we are very aligned with our partners Chinalco and Baru in terms of that this has to be done to the right ESG standards. That gives me hope and confidence. Thank you.

讓我充滿信心的第二部分是，如果你仔細觀察和傾聽中國領導人在談論什麼，他們實際上在強調同樣的事情。因此，我認為我們與我們的合作夥伴中鋁和巴魯非常一致，必須按照正確的 ESG 標準來做這件事。這給了我希望和信心。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Kaan Peker, World Bank of Canada.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大世界銀行的 Kaan Peker。

A question on copper. Really good to see a large resource increase there. But just on the back of the envelope, it suggests that it will be producing around 70,000 tonnes of copper. Given the size, is there an asset that belongs in Rio's portfolio over the long term? We've developed in all the smallest copper assets by (inaudible)

關於銅的問題。很高興看到那裡有大量的資源增加。但就在信封的背面，它表明它將生產大約 70,000 噸銅。鑑於規模，從長遠來看，力拓的投資組合中是否有資產？我們已經開發了所有最小的銅資產（聽不清）

I'm really struggling to hear what you're saying. Peter, could you capture it?

我真的很難聽到你在說什麼。彼得，你能抓住它嗎？

Unfortunately, I could not, Jakob.

不幸的是，我不能，雅各布。

Do you think there's any way you can speak differently to the microphone and repeat the question?

你認為有什麼方法可以用不同的方式對著麥克風說話並重複問題嗎？

Sure. Is that better?

當然。那個更好嗎？

A little bit, yes. Thank you.

一點點，是的。謝謝你。

Just wondering the size of Winu. It looks like it's going to be something around 70,000 tonnes per annum copper asset. Given its size, does it belong in Rio's portfolio over the long term?

只是想知道Winu的大小。看起來這將是大約每年 70,000 噸的銅資產。鑑於其規模，它是否長期屬於力拓的投資組合？

Peter?

彼得?

Thanks very much for the question. I mean we're progressing. We knew, as we said, we've done a lot of the actual sort of project work. And a lot of the reasons Winu hasn't yet come forward is for very good reasons. The permitting process and the engagement with the traditional owners has just taken longer. And that's just within the context of which we're now operating, and it's just very important to do that at the right pace. So that's the context around Winu.

非常感謝這個問題。我的意思是我們正在進步。正如我們所說，我們知道，我們已經完成了很多實際的項目工作。 Winu 還沒有挺身而出的很多原因是有很好的理由的。許可程序和與傳統業主的接觸只需要更長的時間。這只是在我們現在運營的背景下，以正確的速度做到這一點非常重要。這就是Winu的背景。

I mean I just think this with Winu, it's something that there's the initial mine and then there's a potential around it. And we've been very focused on trying to really make sure that we develop something with Winu. That has the potential there if the regional district proves perspective for us to grow over time. We need to just work through that and finalize our studies and that broader piece around getting the appropriate approvals for the project. And then we'll make the decision on where to go from there. Thanks very much for the question.

我的意思是我只是認為 Winu 是這樣的，這是最初的礦井，然後是圍繞它的潛力。我們一直非常專注於嘗試真正確保我們與 Winu 一起開發一些東西。如果該地區證明了我們隨著時間的推移而發展的前景，那就有潛力。我們需要解決這個問題並完成我們的研究以及圍繞獲得該項目的適當批准的更廣泛的部分。然後我們將決定從那裡去哪裡。非常感謝這個問題。

And let me make a little announcement because we have done extensive disclosures today, and one of them is an update on the reserves maturation and you might like to just look at what we're announcing from Winu, it's heading in the right direction. Thank you.

讓我宣布一點，因為我們今天已經進行了廣泛的披露，其中之一是關於儲備成熟度的更新，您可能想看看我們從 Winu 宣布的內容，它正朝著正確的方向前進。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett from Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Bob Brackett。

In terms of the $7.5 billion of decarbonization investments, the way to think about that, for example, the marginal abatement cost curve projects, those have to clear a 10% hurdle rate at an internal carbon price of $75 a tonne? Is that the right way to think about that overall block of investments? And then the follow-up would be, how often do you think that the external or local carbon price will match your internal carbon price?

就 75 億美元的脫碳投資而言，如何考慮這一點，例如邊際減排成本曲線項目，那些必須以每噸 75 美元的內部碳價格清除 10% 的障礙率？這是考慮整體投資的正確方式嗎？然後跟進的是，您認為外部或本地碳價多久會與您的內部碳價匹配？

That's an excellent question. Let me ask Peter to explain the exact methodology, but I would like to make just a philosophical comments. What really for the economics is, of course, not what the carbon price is today. It's what it is 5 years from now and 10 years from now, that's what really have an impact. But if you want to be really specific, that's not what we're saying. We're saying we're using 75% as carbon price internally. And we're saying independent of the 75 we're saying that our portfolio that we will spend $7.5 billion on is value accretive at modest CO2 prices, so well below the 75 Peter, do you want to elaborate? I think you covered it quite a lot in your presentation.

這是一個很好的問題。讓我請彼得解釋確切的方法，但我只想做一個哲學評論。當然，對經濟學來說真正重要的不是今天的碳價格。這就是5年後和10年後的樣子，這才是真正有影響的東西。但是，如果您想非常具體，那不是我們要說的。我們說我們在內部使用 75% 作為碳價格。而且我們說獨立於 75，我們說我們將花費 75 億美元購買的投資組合以適度的二氧化碳價格增值，遠低於 75 彼得，你想詳細說明一下嗎？我認為您在演示文稿中涵蓋了很多內容。

Happy to do so, Jakob. I mean that's exactly right. I mean what we're talking about is a whole range of projects here that have different economics, and those economics will change over time as we do more work. So, clearly, we will sort of prioritize those projects that actually some of them being positive without any carbon price at our sort of hurdle rates of investment at the lower end. And we've given a couple of examples of those in the pack in the appendices to the presentation. So it is a whole range.

很高興這樣做，雅各布。我的意思是完全正確。我的意思是我們在這裡談論的是一系列具有不同經濟學的項目，隨著我們做更多的工作，這些經濟學會隨著時間而改變。因此，很明顯，我們將優先考慮那些實際上其中一些是積極的項目，而沒有任何碳價格在我們的低端投資門檻率。我們在演示文稿的附錄中提供了幾個示例。所以它是一個完整的範圍。

What we want to do with the $75 a tonne is make sure we're incentivizing the work, make sure that we're doing that work that later this decade when we need it around projects around the group to continue taking us down the decarbonization path. Because we have to do this. We have to derisk the long-term cash flows of the company. As Jakob said, what will carbon prices be in the future, that determine sort of so much of the competitiveness of our assets. And this to me is just a continual process of our investing to take us down that carbon intensity curve and to derisk our cash flows for the long term. Thanks very much.

我們想要用每噸 75 美元做的是確保我們正在激勵這項工作，確保我們正在做這項工作，在本十年晚些時候，當我們需要圍繞集團周圍的項目繼續帶領我們走上脫碳道路時.因為我們必須這樣做。我們必須降低公司的長期現金流風險。正如雅各布所說，未來的碳價格將在很大程度上決定我們資產的競爭力。對我來說，這只是我們投資的一個持續過程，以使我們降低碳強度曲線並長期降低我們的現金流風險。非常感謝。

I was in Brisbane a week ago, sitting down with the decarbonization team, and we have a lot of progress. But it's only 4 months ago we announced our targets. But I can see that we are focusing and maturing our plan. And there's nothing in it that doesn't give me confidence in what we said at the Capital Markets Day. But we are still not there where we have the kind of final projects. But we're pushing ahead as fast as we can. Thank you.

一周前我在布里斯班，與脫碳團隊坐下來，我們取得了很大進展。但僅在 4 個月前，我們才宣布了我們的目標。但我可以看到，我們正在關注和完善我們的計劃。沒有什麼不讓我對我們在資本市場日所說的話充滿信心。但是我們仍然沒有完成最終項目。但我們正在盡可能快地推進。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Myles Allsop from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Myles Allsop。

Just going back to the M&A question. I mean do you -- you're saying you're only look for opportunities that create value and fit within the portfolio. Could you give us a sense of the size of acquisitions you're thinking about the commodities? Is it just future face income of commodities, smaller ones, larger ones? And just around, are there opportunities out there? Obviously, Rincon shows there are some opportunities, but is there a long list? Is this going to become more of a theme over the next 12 months? And then, I guess, related is around large-scale M&A. That's obviously been talked about in the press. Do you think there is potential in the sector for larger-scale M&A that Rio can play role in?

回到併購問題。我的意思是你——你是說你只是在尋找創造價值並適合投資組合的機會。您能否告訴我們您正在考慮的商品收購規模？它只是商品的未來面收入，較小的，較大的嗎？就在附近，那裡有機會嗎？顯然，Rincon 表明存在一些機會，但是否有很長的清單？在接下來的 12 個月裡，這是否會成為一個主題？然後，我想，相關的是大規模併購。這顯然已經在媒體上討論過了。您認為力拓可以在該領域發揮作用的更大規模併購的潛力嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Well, I can just talk for Rio Tinto. And I will say to you, I'll be very cautious right now to talk about big M&A. Because I don't know where we are in the cycle, but we are certainly not at a low point. We are pretty high up in the cycle. And I just really would dream about looking back one day and say that we invested countercyclical. And making acquisitions right now could very easily be procyclical. So you could say that larger scale M&A is really not for now, but there are opportunities. And I think Rincon is a good example of it, whereas it would have been very expensive to buy a lithium company right now.

是的。謝謝你。好吧，我可以為力拓說話。我會告訴你，我現在談論大併購時會非常謹慎。因為我不知道我們處於週期的哪個位置，但我們肯定不會處於低谷。我們在周期中處於相當高的位置。而且我真的會夢想有一天回顧過去，說我們進行了逆週期投資。現在進行收購很容易成為順週期性的。所以你可以說大規模併購真的不是現在，但有機會。我認為 Rincon 就是一個很好的例子，而現在購買一家鋰公司會非常昂貴。

We are buying a lithium project at a decent price. And we use our technology, our competence, our people to develop that project. That's an example of how we add value. But the overall guidance from my perspective is, first, ask yourself why are we the best owner of an asset, what can we bring to it? And then, of course, we tend to look quite conservative on prices through the cycle. And when you have very high prices and people expect a high price, it probably doesn't stack up. So I think Rincon is the example of it is possible. But overall, for Rio, I don't see the big M&A out there. Thank you.

我們正在以合理的價格購買一個鋰項目。我們使用我們的技術、我們的能力、我們的員工來開發這個項目。這是我們如何增加價值的一個例子。但從我的角度來看，總體指導是，首先，問問自己為什麼我們是資產的最佳所有者，我們能為它帶來什麼？然後，當然，我們在整個週期的價格上往往看起來相當保守。當你的價格非常高並且人們期望價格很高時，它可能不會疊加。所以我認為 Rincon 就是一個例子。但總的來說，對於力拓，我看不到那裡有大的併購。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Hatch from Berenberg.

您的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Richard Hatch。

And two questions. First one, just on costs. I mean you talked about trying to get back to where you were. I mean in 2017, iron ore costs were $13.40 a tonne. So what kind of -- and we're guiding to $19.5 to $20.5 for this year. So what can we expect for costs sort of into the medium term? Can you give us a target?

還有兩個問題。第一個，只是成本。我的意思是你談到試圖回到你原來的位置。我的意思是，在 2017 年，鐵礦石成本為每噸 13.40 美元。那麼什麼樣的 - 我們今年的指導價為 19.5 至 20.5 美元。那麼我們對中期成本的預期是什麼？你能給我們一個目標嗎？

And then secondly, just on IOC. I mean that asset seems to continue to underperform. Just operationally, you're talking the release to a number of operational issues. What exactly is going on there? And when do you think we can finally get back to a stable operational run rate?

其次，就國際奧委會而言。我的意思是該資產似乎繼續表現不佳。只是在操作上，您正在談論一些操作問題的發布。那裡到底發生了什麼？您認為我們什麼時候才能最終恢復到穩定的運營運行率？

And then also some leasing costs. I think they're up about 40% versus 2017. I appreciate those inflationary factors there, but what can you do for cost of that asset?

然後還有一些租賃費用。我認為它們與 2017 年相比上漲了約 40%。我很欣賞那裡的那些通貨膨脹因素，但你能為該資產的成本做些什麼呢？

Yes. Thank you. I'll let Peter explain the cost development in the Pilbara, but I do think I have to take account of IOC. I think it's an amazing asset, but it hasn't been operating super good. I think we have, last year, externally recruited a great CEO for the asset. It was already improving beforehand. And I think we are right now taking it to the next step. There is some very basic things that needs to be improved. There are also some investments that needs to be made. And I'm really excited about implementing the Rio Tinto Safe Production System in IOC.

是的。謝謝你。我會讓彼得解釋皮爾巴拉的成本開發，但我確實認為我必須考慮到國際奧委會。我認為這是一項了不起的資產，但它的運作並不是很好。我認為去年我們為這項資產從外部招聘了一位出色的 CEO。事先已經在改善。我認為我們現在正在將其推進到下一步。有一些非常基本的東西需要改進。還有一些投資需要進行。我對在國際奧委會實施力拓安全生產系統感到非常興奮。

My starting point, just to say, is it produces the world's best quality of fines and pellets. It has got a very long mine life. It has got a great infrastructure. We've got to get that asset to perform every day at its best. And we'll get there, but it will take a while. Peter, the cost split down, please?

我的出發點，只是說，它生產世界上質量最好的細粉和顆粒。它的礦山壽命很長。它有一個很好的基礎設施。我們必須讓該資產每天發揮最佳性能。我們會到達那裡，但這需要一段時間。彼得，費用分攤好嗎？

Thanks, Jakob. I mean just one more point on IOC, did make $2 billion of EBITDA in 2021. So just putting things in context. In terms of the unit cost progression in the Pilbara, I mean, clearly, we've seen a set of drivers that have been across the industry in terms of exchange, in terms of input prices coming across the industry. For us, over the last couple of years and as we said, going into the first half of next year, there's some very specific drivers as well as we've had to bring in new capacity into the system.

謝謝，雅各布。我的意思是，國際奧委會在 2021 年確實賺了 20 億美元的 EBITDA。所以只是把事情放在上下文中。就皮爾巴拉的單位成本進展而言，我的意思是，很明顯，我們已經看到了整個行業在交換方面的一系列驅動因素，就整個行業的投入價格而言。對我們來說，在過去的幾年裡，正如我們所說，進入明年上半年，有一些非常具體的驅動因素，我們不得不為系統引入新的容量。

And we're being very deliberate in 2022, as I said, to put more investment into the business, particularly around maintenance and particularly about building out that sort of midterm capacity of the system, which is critically important to us. So certainly, as we get into the second half of the year, Gudai-Darri coming on does give us some flexibility into the mining system. That is important. It does, it sort of resolve all our issues? We'll still have work index increases. We'll still have challenges to do. But it gives us more flexibility as we then build out to that midterm capacity as we've talked with the next set of new mines coming on, and we talked about Western Range earlier.

正如我所說，我們非常謹慎地在 2022 年對業務進行更多投資，尤其是在維護方面，尤其是在建立系統的那種中期能力方面，這對我們來說至關重要。因此，可以肯定的是，隨著我們進入下半年，Gudai-Darri 的出現確實為我們在採礦系統中提供了一些靈活性。這很重要。確實，它解決了我們所有的問題？我們仍然會增加工作指數。我們仍將面臨挑戰。但它為我們提供了更大的靈活性，因為我們已經討論了下一批新礦山的出現，並且我們之前談到了西部山脈，從而擴大了中期產能。

So I think our job is to really focus to stabilize that system as it is, bring on Gudai-Darri, ramp-up production and to really then deploy the Safe Production System across the Pilbara so that we can manage that sort of natural effect of work index over time as we build out then that midterm capacity. Thanks very much thank you.

所以我認為我們的工作是真正專注於穩定該系統，引入 Gudai-Darri，提高產量，然後真正在皮爾巴拉部署安全生產系統，以便我們能夠管理那種自然效應隨著我們建立中期能力，隨著時間的推移工作指數。非常感謝謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Rahul Anand from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Rahul Anand。

Jakob and Peter, look, I had a question on lithium and Rincon. So in terms of the BLE absorption technology, I think Livent is the only other producer in Argentina that's currently using that technology. But that's used in conjunction with solar evaporation. So I guess a proper BLE process that's required for the project remains at pilot stage. So what I wanted to understand really was what level of due diligence occurred that gave you the confidence that there is actually a solution available for the project? And what are your next steps here? Can you provide some kind of a time line as to when we should expect some more news around Rincon?

Jakob 和 Peter，聽著，我有一個關於鋰和 Rincon 的問題。所以就 BLE 吸收技術而言，我認為 Livent 是阿根廷目前唯一使用該技術的其他生產商。但這與太陽能蒸發結合使用。因此，我猜該項目所需的適當 BLE 流程仍處於試點階段。所以我真正想了解的是，發生了何種程度的盡職調查，讓您確信該項目實際上有可用的解決方案？你接下來的步驟是什麼？您能否提供某種時間表，說明我們何時應該期待更多有關 Rincon 的消息？

Yes. Thank you. Look, we did an awful lot of technical due diligence. And you should probably talk to Sinead Kaufman, but both Peter and I and our investment committee, we -- that was the issue. We went all over that. There was not that much the commercial issue. Yes, the price was the price. But it was really about, really about getting our best technical experts at it. And I think Rincon had actually matured things very well. We went through it with deep technical due diligence. I'm not saying there's no risk with it. But we ended up being comfortable. It was a risk worth taking. It's interesting because we will end up with a project that is not only producing very well battery-grade lithium, but it will also be done in a very environmentally friendly way. So yes, I feel comfortable about that. But if you want to get more details, we can definitely let you talk to a couple of our technical experts. Thank you.

是的。謝謝你。看，我們做了很多技術上的盡職調查。您可能應該與 Sinead Kaufman 談談，但彼得和我以及我們的投資委員會，我們 - 這就是問題所在。我們對此進行了全面檢查。沒有那麼多商業問題。是的，價格就是價格。但這真的是關於，真的是為了讓我們最好的技術專家來做這件事。而且我認為Rincon實際上已經非常成熟了。我們進行了深入的技術盡職調查。我並不是說它沒有風險。但我們最終感到很舒服。這是一個值得冒的風險。這很有趣，因為我們最終將完成一個項目，該項目不僅可以生產非常好的電池級鋰，而且還將以非常環保的方式完成。所以，是的，我對此感到很自在。但是，如果您想了解更多詳細信息，我們絕對可以讓您與我們的幾位技術專家交談。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of [Tyler Bulva] from RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 [Tyler Bulva]。

Great. In fact, the recent intervention by China into the iron ore market, obviously, it's a massive customer. Is there anything you can share from the meeting that you reportedly had the government? And then I guess on a wider basis, just with the increased volatility we've seen over the last year or 2, do you see the current spot sales structure construct as being optimal? I guess is there any thought from Rio's side in terms of seeing that evolve as we go forward?

偉大的。事實上，中國最近對鐵礦石市場的干預，顯然是一個大客戶。你有什麼可以從會議中分享的，據報導你有政府嗎？然後我想在更廣泛的基礎上，隨著我們在過去一兩年中看到的波動性增加，您認為當前的現貨銷售結構結構是最優的嗎？我想里約方面是否有任何想法可以看到隨著我們前進的發展？

Sorry, I need a little clarification. What meeting with the government are you referring to and what government?

抱歉，我需要澄清一下。您指的是與政府舉行的哪個會議以及哪個政府？

Sorry, from the Chinese government. So there's a report from Bloomberg just yesterday, Rio Tinto met with the government as part their current investigations into that. Yes.

對不起，來自中國政府。所以昨天有來自彭博社的報導，力拓與政府會面，作為他們目前對此調查的一部分。是的。

So it's very difficult for me to comment upon an article. It's rumors. I mean the only thing I can say is that we work and we have always worked constructively with our customers and other stakeholders for having free and transparent price setting in a free market of iron ore, and we'll continue to constructively work on that. But I cannot say anything concrete. But what you're referring to is simply rumors.

所以我很難評論一篇文章。是謠言。我的意思是我唯一能說的是，我們一直在與我們的客戶和其他利益相關者進行建設性的合作，以便在自由的鐵礦石市場上進行自由透明的價格設定，我們將繼續建設性地努力。但我不能說任何具體的東西。但你所說的只是謠言。

your next question comes from the line of Lachlan Shaw from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Lachlan Shaw。

Yes. So maybe just a lithium strategy, first question. So obviously, Gudai-Darri has a paper to play out, and Rincon sounds pretty interesting. But assuming Rincon goes through development, is that where you want to get to? Or do you see yourself wanting to get bigger in that space given the growth outlook there? You've obviously indicated by acquiring the asset, you got quite good appetite for lithium. So just interested in how you're thinking about the broader strategy in terms of lithium in the portfolio.

是的。所以也許只是一個鋰戰略，第一個問題。很明顯，Gudai-Darri 有一篇論文要播放，而 Rincon 聽起來很有趣。但假設 Rincon 經歷了開發，那是你想要去的地方嗎？或者，鑑於那裡的增長前景，您是否認為自己想在該領域變得更大？你顯然通過收購資產表明你對鋰的胃口很好。所以只是對你如何考慮投資組合中鋰的更廣泛戰略感興趣。

Yes. Thank you. I don't look too much in kind of the spreadsheet part of it where the numbers should bring us. But the starting point is that we expect the global lithium market to be 10x bigger in 2030 than in 2020. That means that the world needs a number of new mines. And what we're doing, we have actually been working since 2003 in Gudai. We have developed a lot of good technology. With Rincon, we can give something new to now going into (inaudible) giving something new to our technical experts, and we develop technological know-how, competencies.

是的。謝謝你。我並沒有看太多數字應該帶給我們的電子表格部分。但起點是，我們預計 2030 年全球鋰市場將比 2020 年大 10 倍。這意味著世界需要大量新礦。而我們正在做的事情，實際上我們從 2003 年就開始在古岱工作了。我們開發了很多好的技術。通過 Rincon，我們可以為現在提供一些新的東西（聽不清），為我們的技術專家提供一些新的東西，我們開發技術知識和能力。

And it's really from that technical expertise pool that we want to see expansion. So it's actually more the technical competencies that drives it than necessarily setting a specific target because, quite frankly, it's going to be opportunity driven. The only thing we know, and it might not be a linear development, but what we know quite sure if we believe in the energy transition is that the world needs much more lithium, and we think we can contribute here.

我們確實希望看到擴展的技術專業知識庫。所以實際上更多的是技術能力推動它，而不是設定一個特定的目標，因為坦率地說，這將是機會驅動的。我們唯一知道的，可能不是線性發展，但如果我們相信能源轉型，我們非常確定的是，世界需要更多的鋰，我們認為我們可以在這裡做出貢獻。

Your next question comes from the line of Dominic O'Kane from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Dominic O'Kane。

Peter. I just wondering if you could just quantify for us in a bit more detail the SP10 guidance for 2022. You -- [Indiscernible] about 11% of the sales mix in 2021. So is it reasonable to assume it should be more than 11% in the first half of the year? And again, how should we think about that evolving as we move through 2022?

彼得。我只是想知道您是否可以更詳細地為我們量化 2022 年的 SP10 指南。您 -- [音頻不清晰] 約佔 2021 年銷售組合的 11%。所以假設它應該超過 11% 是否合理上半年？再一次，我們應該如何看待隨著我們進入 2022 年的演變？

I mean I think broadly, you should see the first half of 2022 are similar to the second half of 2021. The key is then Gudai-Darri coming on, which will then give us much more flexibility. And at that stage, we should then assume sort of SP10 will come down towards the sort of that midterm guidance that we've given. Thanks very much, Tony.

我的意思是，我認為從廣義上講，你應該看到 2022 年上半年與 2021 年下半年相似。關鍵是 Gudai-Darri 上場，這將給我們更大的靈活性。在那個階段，我們應該假設 SP10 將下降到我們給出的那種中期指導。非常感謝，托尼。

The next question comes from the line of Amos Fletcher from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Amos Fletcher。

Jakob, Peter. The first question is just on the iron ore unit cost guidance, which implies year-on-year inflation of 5% to 13%. Can you give us some color on what scenarios at the top and bottom end of that range? And then the follow-up would just be on the Aluminium business, where can you give us a little more color around what's happening at Kitimat and why the ramp-up is taking so long there?

雅各布，彼得。第一個問題只是關於鐵礦石單位成本指導，這意味著同比通脹率為 5% 至 13%。你能給我們一些關於該範圍的頂端和底端的場景的顏色嗎？然後跟進將只針對鋁業務，您可以在哪裡給我們更多關於 Kitimat 正在發生的事情以及為什麼那裡的加速增長需要這麼長時間的顏色？

Yes. So let me start with Kitimat and leave the cost guidance to Peter. I visited Kitimat in September last year, and it's very sad to have such strike situation. But what is happening is when a strike is invoked and if it happens fairly quickly is that there's actually a lot of cleaning up of pots before you can get started. There was clearly also a need for a reset of the culture at the site. And we have been absolutely crystal clear for everyone, management and staff that we need to find the right way of working together in the future.

是的。因此，讓我從 Kitimat 開始，將成本指導留給彼得。去年9月我曾到訪過Kitimat，遇到這樣的罷工情況，我感到非常難過。但是發生的事情是當罷工被調用時，如果它發生得相當快，那麼在你開始之前實際上有很多清理罐子的工作。顯然還需要重新設置現場的文化。我們對每個人、管理層和員工都非常清楚，我們需要在未來找到正確的合作方式。

And therefore, we are taking the time. We are taking people are well back. We are bringing maintenance up to staff. We are cleaning the pots, and we will have a very controlled start-up. So that's unfortunately sometimes the characteristics of an aluminum smelter. If you shut it down quickly, it takes a long time to bring it back. It would have been nice to get it up earlier, but we are trying to achieve a number of objectives with the start-up plan that we have set Peter, over to you on the iron ore.

因此，我們正在抓緊時間。我們正在讓人們恢復健康。我們正在為員工提供維護服務。我們正在清洗罐子，我們將有一個非常可控的啟動。不幸的是，有時這就是鋁冶煉廠的特點。如果您快速關閉它，則需要很長時間才能將其恢復。早點啟動會很好，但我們正在努力通過我們為彼得設定的啟動計劃實現一些目標，在鐵礦石上交給你。

No, thanks very much. So what we've built in is what we think is a fairly realistic set of input price assumptions. That's key, clearly to the price progression -- the cost progression as we get into 2022, given the increases that we've seen in diesel and other inputs into the business. The other sort of key assumptions really are around the commissioning and ramp-up of the new replacement mines and also Gudai-Darri. And again, we think we've built into that guidance a sort of a range, which is very sensible from everything we see today. But those, I think, are the 2 key sort of scenario that need to be placed on those numbers because I think we're fairly clear on the side of investment and maintenance and investment in studies for that midterm development of the Pilbara system. I think those variables are pretty clear. Thanks very much.

不，非常感謝。因此，我們所構建的是我們認為一組相當現實的輸入價格假設。這顯然是價格進展的關鍵——考慮到我們在柴油和其他業務投入方面看到的增長，我們進入 2022 年的成本進展。其他類型的關鍵假設實際上是圍繞新替代礦山以及 Gudai-Darri 的調試和增產。再一次，我們認為我們已經在該指導中建立了一種範圍，從我們今天看到的一切來看，這是非常明智的。但我認為，這些是需要放在這些數字上的兩種關鍵情景，因為我認為我們在投資和維護方面以及對皮爾巴拉系統中期發展的研究投資方面相當清楚。我認為這些變量很清楚。非常感謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter O'Connor from Shaw Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Shaw Partners 的 Peter O'Connor。

My question is twofold and comes through the lens of the narrative of income versus growth. So my first question is, given the spend that Jason asked about earlier of $3 billion per year on growth versus [Indiscernible] market cap size, -- is that, again, sufficient to grow the company at that level. As your pie chart on Slide 17, it seems to be skewed less than 1/3 of that pie? And secondly, Jakob, you mentioned twice in your commentary in the Q&A about the high point of the cycle. The key would be high in the second leg cycle. So are you foreshadowing an end to the cycle and if so, as Peter's rhetorical narrative about big dividends. Is that about to change? And how do we think about the income versus growth of the company given that leaves of commentary which you presented?

我的問題是雙重的，來自收入與增長的敘述。所以我的第一個問題是，考慮到 Jason 早些時候詢問的每年 30 億美元的增長支出與 [音頻不清晰] 市值規模相比，這是否足以讓公司在這個水平上發展。正如您在幻燈片 17 上的餅圖，它的傾斜度似乎小於該餅圖的 1/3？其次，雅各布，你在問答環節的評論中兩次提到了周期的高點。關鍵將在第二回合週期中處於高位。你是否預示著這個週期的結束，如果是這樣，就像彼得關於大紅利的修辭敘述一樣。這是要改變了嗎？鑑於您發表的評論，我們如何看待公司的收入與增長？

Yes. Thank you. I have to admit it was a little bit difficult to hear your question, but I think I captured it, but do come in if I'm not answering it sharp enough. But the thing about the cycle is that what we're trying to do is we are trying to ramp up our organic investments and organic investments are, of course, to a certain extent when it comes to inflation exposed to the cycle.

是的。謝謝你。我不得不承認聽到你的問題有點困難，但我想我抓住了它，但如果我回答得不夠敏銳，請進來。但是關於這個週期的事情是，我們正在努力做的是我們正在努力增加我們的有機投資，當然，有機投資在一定程度上涉及到受週期影響的通脹。

But the real exposure to the cycle is M&A. You just don't want to buy at a very expensive point of view. So my comment about the cycle is mainly about M&A. I think organic development is actually quite important that you try to have some stability there because it's not just a matter of money. It's also a matter of competencies having a great organization that can execute project in the most efficient way. So I think that's the gist of it. But there might be 1 or 2 things I missed in your questions. So please clarify what you're missing.

但真正暴露於週期的是併購。您只是不想以非常昂貴的角度購買。所以我對周期的評論主要是關於併購。我認為有機發展實際上非常重要，你要在那裡保持一定的穩定性，因為這不僅僅是錢的問題。擁有一個能夠以最有效的方式執行項目的優秀組織也是一個能力問題。所以我認為這就是它的要點。但在您的問題中，我可能遺漏了 1 或 2 件事。所以請澄清你錯過了什麼。

So it sounds like you've clarified so we're at the high point of the M&A cycle, not the high point of the commodity cycle to be clear?

所以聽起來你已經澄清了，所以我們正處於併購週期的高點，而不是商品週期的高點要明確？

Well, exactly. I don't know the commodity prices, but obviously, we have very attractive commodity prices right now. And the only thing I can say is it's certainly more expensive to buy assets than it was a couple of years back. And I think as I said earlier on, we only know it afterwards. And 5 years from now, looking back, I would love to see that we have not bought too much on top of the cycle, but rather at a lower point in the cycle. And that's why I'm cautious about M&A, but I'm not cautious about us really investing in our project capabilities and experiencing and becoming better and better and really what I call excellent development.

嗯，正是。我不知道商品價格，但很明顯，我們現在的商品價格非常有吸引力。我唯一能說的是，購買資產肯定比幾年前更貴。而且我認為正如我之前所說，我們只有事後才知道。 5年後，回首過去，我很想看到我們沒有在周期頂部購買太多，而是在周期的較低點購買。這就是為什麼我對併購持謹慎態度，但我對我們真正投資於我們的項目能力並體驗並變得越來越好，真正的我所說的優秀發展並不謹慎。

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Carsten Riek from Credit Suisse.

謝謝你。您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Carsten Riek。

Peter and Jakob. My question is on aluminum. You mentioned, I think, in your release that the tensions between Russia and Ukraine could send actually aluminum prices even higher -- could that -- could you actually think about a way that Russia could actually redirect those volumes to China and could the price impact in be less pronounced in your opinion? And a follow-up, could you up actual production in aluminum in the short to midterm other than at the Kitimat smelter in British Columbia to benefit from strong aluminum prices.

彼得和雅各布。我的問題是關於鋁的。我認為，您在新聞稿中提到，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的緊張局勢實際上可能會導致鋁價甚至更高——可能嗎——你是否真的可以考慮一種方式，讓俄羅斯實際上可以將這些數量轉移到中國，以及價格是否會影響在你看來不那麼明顯？接下來，您能否在中短期內提高鋁的實際產量，而不是在不列顛哥倫比亞省的 Kitimat 冶煉廠，以從強勁的鋁價中受益。

Yes. Thank you. You're right. I think it goes for Rio Tinto and it goes for all aluminum smelters. You have very little flexibility. You either run a smelter or you run a smelter flat out. I don't think I predicted increased prices in aluminum because quite frankly, I don't know where prices are going. What I said about the Ukraine conflict is that it has the potential to create disruption in the market. And I think what you're saying there is one scenario, there are many scenarios that can pan out. What I'm trying to say is, I think, actually, we have tried sanctions before. I think we are quite well placed because we have got that integration between bauxite mines, refineries and smelters so that we would be quite robust if there is disruptions. But predicting prices, I leave for you.

是的。謝謝你。你是對的。我認為它適用於力拓，適用於所有鋁冶煉廠。你的靈活性很小。您要么經營冶煉廠，要么經營冶煉廠。我不認為我預測鋁價會上漲，因為坦率地說，我不知道價格會走向何方。關於烏克蘭衝突，我所說的是它有可能對市場造成破壞。我認為你所說的只有一種情況，有很多情況可以成功。我想說的是，我認為，實際上，我們以前曾嘗試過制裁。我認為我們處於有利地位，因為我們在鋁土礦、精煉廠和冶煉廠之間進行了整合，因此如果出現中斷，我們將非常穩健。但是預測價格，我留給你。

Thank you. I will now hand the call back for closing remarks.

謝謝你。我現在將回電以結束髮言。

Well, thank you very much for taking the time here attending and showing interest in Rio Tinto. It's an important day for us. We have disclosed, as I said, a very strong financial results, but leave no doubt, we see everyday opportunities to continue to improve. We tend to strengthen our culture, strengthen our operational performance, always in a safe manner. Thank you for joining, and have a nice day.

好的，非常感謝您抽出寶貴的時間出席並表示對力拓的興趣。這對我們來說是重要的一天。正如我所說，我們已經披露了非常強勁的財務業績，但毫無疑問，我們每天都看到繼續改進的機會。我們傾向於以安全的方式加強我們的文化，加強我們的運營績效。感謝您的加入，祝您有美好的一天。