力拓 (RIO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you to everyone tuning in. Before we begin, I acknowledge and pay my respect to all traditional owners and First Nations people that host our operations around the world. I am today in the United States, so we are doing results a little differently this year. But I hope the message comes through loud and clear.

大家好，感謝大家的收看。在我們開始之前，我要向在世界各地承辦我們業務的所有傳統所有者和原住民表示感謝和敬意。我今天在美國，所以今年我們的結果略有不同。但我希望這個訊息能夠得到響亮而清晰的傳達。

Our culture is changing and is improving our performance. We are again a leader in project development and have excellent growth momentum. The diversification towards copper, aluminum, and lithium is happening at pace. And we are delivering consistent shareholder value as we grow, build, and diversify our portfolio.

我們的文化正在改變並提高我們的表現。我們再次成為專案開發的領先者，並擁有良好的成長動能。向銅、鋁和鋰的多樣化發展正在快速進行中。隨著我們不斷擴大、建立和多樣化我們的投資組合，我們也在為股東提供持續的價值。

Now let's look at the evidence. Our production has grown for the third year in a row. Copper-equivalent production increased 1% in 2024, and our mid-range guidance indicates another 4% growth this year, led by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. The 4% excludes Arcadium Lithium, so you can see we are already on our way organically. The acquisition only brightens the outlook.

現在讓我們來看看證據。我們的產量連續第三年成長。2024 年銅當量產量將成長 1%，我們的中期指引表明，今年產量將再成長 4%，其中，以奧尤陶勒蓋 (Oyu Tolgoi) 產量成長為主導。4% 不包括 Arcadium Lithium，因此你可以看到我們已經在有機發展道路上了。此次收購只會讓前景更加光明。

As we set out at our Investor Day in December, this puts us on course for a decade of 3% compound annual production growth. And this is not growth for the sake of growth. This is about investments that create more value from existing assets and diversifying our portfolio towards future areas of growth. We have really good momentum, and the way we have built it is simple: a relentless focus on our four objectives.

正如我們在 12 月的投資者日上所提出的那樣，這使我們有望實現十年內 3% 的複合年產量成長率。這不是為了成長而成長。這是關於從現有資產中創造更多價值的投資，並將我們的投資組合多元化至未來的成長領域。我們擁有非常好的發展勢頭，而我們建立這一勢頭的方式很簡單：堅持不懈地專注於我們的四個目標。

First, best operator. The safe production system is driving clear improvements that we will build on and accelerate. It was very encouraging for me to speak to our iron ore colleagues in the Pilbara a couple of weeks ago and understand how the evolving culture and systems are empowering them to make continuous improvement.

第一，最佳操作員。安全生產體係正在取得明顯進步，我們將在此基礎上進一步加快。幾週前，我與皮爾巴拉的鐵礦石同事進行了交談，了解到不斷發展的文化和體系如何幫助他們不斷進步，這讓我感到非常鼓舞。

We have more work to do on this objective to unlock value from all our assets this year, and that's a major opportunity. Becoming best operator also means creating a safe environment and safe culture for our people. We are determined to learn from the deeply tragic events we experienced in 2024 to improve upon our processes everywhere.

為了實現這一目標，我們今年還有很多工作要做，以釋放我們所有資產的價值，這是一個重大機會。成為最佳營運商也意味著為我們的員工創造安全的環境和安全的文化。我們決心從 2024 年經歷的慘痛事件中吸取教訓，以改善我們在各地的流程。

Second, impeccable ESG. We have an action plan to decarbonize, and its value accretive. Good for the climate, good for business. I'll come back to that later. Next, excellent development. The tremendous progress at Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi, and Rincon showcases our project building expertise. Peter will share the insights with you in a moment.

第二，無可挑剔的ESG。我們有一個脫碳行動計劃，並且它的價值不斷增值。對氣候有利，對生意也有利。我稍後會再談這個問題。接下來，發展十分出色。西芒杜、奧尤陶勒蓋和林孔的巨大進展展示了我們在專案建立方面的專業知識。Peter 稍後將與您分享這些見解。

And finally, social license. Having spent time on Country in Western Australia recently, I'm reminded of how fundamental this objective is to everything we do. We must constantly earn the right to operate and grow, and we cannot take our license for granted. Right now, I think we are in a good place. When I talk to our stakeholders, I sense we are building the trust and deeper partnerships needed to unlock sustainable business opportunities.

最後是社會許可。最近在西澳大利亞州度過了一段時間後，我意識到這個目標對我們所做的一切有多重要。我們必須不斷贏得經營和發展的權利，我們不能將我們的許可視為理所當然。目前，我認為我們處於一個很好的狀態。當我與我們的利害關係人交談時，我感覺到我們正在建立信任和更深層的合作關係，以發掘可持續的商業機會。

Our four objectives are driving us forward in our ambition for a decade of growth and to deliver consistent returns to our shareholders. Our strong operational and financial performance support this conviction. We have increased production volumes and sales volumes, and we remain very profitable, even in a weaker iron ore price scenario. This resilience is underpinned by an increasingly diversified portfolio.

我們的四個目標推動著我們實現十年成長的宏偉目標並為股東帶來持續的回報。我們強勁的營運和財務業績支持了這一信念。我們增加了產量和銷售量，即使在鐵礦石價格走弱的情況下，我們仍然保持著很高的利潤。這種韌性是由日益多樣化的投資組合所支撐的。

Peter will go into more detail, but I want to bring to your attention the net operating cash flow. This increased 3% last year, supported by a stronger performance from copper and aluminum. Looking at the second half of the year, you can see how much momentum we are gaining from these assets and that our distinct commodity mix is now paying off.

彼得將會講得更詳細，但我想請大家注意淨營業現金流。受銅和鋁強勁表現的推動，去年該數字增長了 3%。展望下半年，你可以看到我們從這些資產中獲得了多大的動力，我們獨特的商品組合現在正在獲得回報。

Our strategic investments are adding value, and our balance sheet is in good health, putting us ahead of the curve. This means no surprises. We are paying ordinary dividends at the top end of the range for the ninth year running. We have a resilient, highly valuable business today. We have built a solid base for future value, and once again, we are paying back to our shareholders.

我們的策略投資正在增加價值，我們的資產負債表狀況良好，使我們處於領先地位。這意味著不會有任何意外。我們連續第九年支付最高範圍的普通股股利。如今，我們的業務富有彈性，而且價值極高。我們為未來的價值奠定了堅實的基礎，並且再次回報我們的股東。

With that, I will hand over to Peter.

說完這些，我會把麥克風交給彼得。

Thanks, Jakob. I have a reasonably simple task today to summarize our strong financial performance for three reasons. Firstly, the majority of our assets are performing well, and we're starting to see productivity breakthroughs as SPS matures. As always, there are challenges, but the underlying trajectory is more operational consistency and continuous improvement.

謝謝，雅各。今天我的任務相當簡單，總結一下我們強勁的財務業績，原因有三。首先，我們的大部分資產表現良好，隨著 SPS 的成熟，我們開始看到生產力的突破。像往常一樣，挑戰仍然存在，但其根本軌跡更多的是營運的一致性和持續的改進。

Secondly, we are seeing good discipline on costs, working capital, and CapEx, resulting in strong cash flows. The improvement in our cost performance in 2024 was particularly good to see, after several years of high inflation. Thirdly, our projects are on track, underwriting the next phase of the group's growth plans and incremental cash flows.

其次，我們看到成本、營運資金和資本支出的良好紀律，進而產生強勁的現金流。在經歷了幾年的高通膨之後，2024年我們的成本績效的改善尤其令人欣喜。第三，我們的專案進展順利，為集團下一階段的成長計畫和增量現金流提供了保障。

So turning to the numbers, underlying EBITDA was down just 2% to $23.3 billion, despite an 11% lower iron ore price, with a rising contribution from our aluminum and copper divisions. Operating cash flow was particularly resilient, rising 3%, with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate, up from 63% in 2023. With our share of capital investment rising to $9.5 billion, we ended the year with net debt of $5.5 billion. And as Jakob said, we have maintained our track record of a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion.

從數據上看，儘管鐵礦石價格下跌了 11%，但由於鋁和銅部門的貢獻不斷增加，基礎 EBITDA 僅下降 2% 至 233 億美元。經營現金流尤為強勁，成長 3%，EBITDA 現金轉換率為 67%，高於 2023 年的 63%。我們的資本投資份額上升至 95 億美元，年底我們的淨債務為 55 億美元。正如雅各所說，我們一直保持著 60% 普通股息支付率的記錄，相當於 65 億美元。

These strong results have been achieved against a complex macroeconomic backdrop and a mixed demand picture for our products, dependent on end use. Firstly, the property sector globally has been soft. In China, it has been weak for a number of years, with steel demand down by as much as 30% from its peak in 2020. Elsewhere in the world, construction has been dampened by higher interest rates.

這些強勁的業績是在複雜的宏觀經濟背景和我們產品混合的需求狀況（取決於最終用途）下取得的。首先，全球房地產產業疲軟。在中國，鋼鐵需求已連續多年疲軟，2020 年的高峰已下降了 30%。在世界其他地區，建築業因利率上升而受到抑制。

Second, traditional consumer and industrial sectors have tended to be more stable and generally supportive for metals, and this picture is pretty consistent across major markets. And third, demand from the energy transition, which has not only buoyed growth for copper and aluminum but also been a significant factor in holding up demand for finished steel due to investment in renewables and the grid.

其次，傳統消費和工業部門趨於穩定，整體而言對金屬具有支撐作用，這一情況在主要市場相當一致。第三，能源轉型的需求不僅推動了銅和鋁的成長，而且由於對再生能源和電網的投資，也是支撐成品鋼需求的重要因素。

Energy transition sectors accounted for around 20% of Chinese GDP growth in 2024. The effects have been less pronounced elsewhere, but we expect it to remain the major driver of demand growth globally. This is where we are spending most focused in terms of our growth program. The significant inflationary pressures of the last few years have changed the shape of industry cost curves, resulting in higher prices for many products, given the correlation between prices and costs. But it's important to have a very balanced view of the demand picture. Our financial results are not the product of a global economy firing on all cylinders.

到2024年，能源轉型產業將佔中國GDP成長的20%左右。雖然其影響在其他地方不那麼明顯，但我們預計它仍將是全球需求成長的主要驅動力。就我們的成長計劃而言，這是我們投入最多資金的地方。由於價格與成本之間存在相關性，過去幾年顯著的通膨壓力改變了行業成本曲線的形狀，導致許多產品價格上漲。但對需求狀況有一個非常平衡的認知非常重要。我們的財務表現並不是全球經濟全速發展的產物。

Turning now to EBITDA, in 2024, we really started to see the benefits of our diversified portfolio and operational improvement. Higher prices for copper, bauxite, and aluminum, together with rising copper and bauxite volumes, helped to offset much of the impact of the iron ore price decline. As we set out at our Capital Markets Day, over the next few years, we expect to see our financial results increasingly driven by the whole portfolio of assets, not just the Pilbara.

現在談到 EBITDA，到 2024 年，我們才真正開始看到多元化投資組合和營運改善的好處。銅、鋁土礦和鋁價格上漲，加上銅和鋁土礦產量增加，抵消了鐵礦石價格下跌的大部分影響。正如我們在資本市場日所提出的，在接下來的幾年裡，我們預計我們的財務表現將越來越多地受到整個資產組合的推動，而不僅僅是皮爾巴拉。

Our improving operational stability and intense focus on cost discipline is starting to bear fruit. Just to give you a few examples, we have already lowered headcount in iron ore as part of our recent streamlining program and have reduced group-wide functional costs by 3% year on year. This is all about rightsizing for the future. Meanwhile, copper unit costs on a gross basis, that is, to say before by-product credits, were down 4% on 2023 as we achieved greater cost efficiencies.

我們不斷提升的營運穩定性和對成本紀律的高度重視已開始取得成效。舉幾個例子，作為我們最近的精簡計劃的一部分，我們已經減少了鐵礦石部門的員工人數，並且集團範圍內的職能成本同比降低了 3%。這一切都是為了未來的合理規模。同時，由於我們實現了更高的成本效率，以總成本計算的銅單位成本（即扣除副產品成本之前）較 2023 年下降了 4%。

So overall, we really feel we've turned a corner. The post-COVID inflationary environment was challenging, but costs are now under control and SPS is kicking in, which gives us good momentum going into 2025. The EBITDA waterfall underlines this stability. Commodity prices, as ever, were the biggest driver, netting out to $1.6 billion negative. The net effect of lower energy and market-based import costs more than offset the impact of general inflation of around 3%.

所以總的來說，我們確實感覺到我們已經扭轉局面了。後疫情時代的通膨環境充滿挑戰，但目前成本已得到控制，SPS 也正在發揮作用，這為我們邁向 2025 年提供了良好的動力。EBITDA 瀑布強調了這種穩定性。大宗商品價格一如既往地是最大的推動因素，造成淨虧損 16 億美元。能源和市場化進口成本下降的淨效應遠遠超過了3%左右的普遍通膨的影響。

In copper-equivalent terms, our production was up just over 1%, mostly driven by our rising copper volumes in line with the ramp-up at OT, higher grades at Escondida, and the restart of the Kennecott smelter. This compensated for a modest decline in iron ore sales. Expiration and evaluation was $300 million lower, mainly a function of Simandou costs being expensed for a good chunk of 2023, as we finalized agreements. Our underlying spend levels are stable at around $1 billion a year.

以銅當量計算，我們的產量增加了 1% 多一點，主要原因是隨著 OT 產量增加、Escondida 銅品位提高以及 Kennecott 冶煉廠重啟，我們的銅產量也隨之增加。這彌補了鐵礦石銷量的小幅下滑。到期和評估費用減少了 3 億美元，主要因為在我們最終確定協議時，西芒杜的成本被計入了 2023 年的很大一部分。我們的基本支出水準穩定在每年10億美元左右。

Turning to cash unit costs, our performance was more positive in the second half, as expected, and broadly flat for the year. We had lower unit costs in aluminum and copper, which were matched by adverse unit costs in our other businesses, mainly driven by lower volumes. So all in all, this brings us to strong underlying EBITDA of $23.3 billion.

談到現金單位成本，正如預期的那樣，我們下半年的業績更加積極，全年業績基本上持平。鋁和銅的單位成本較低，而其他業務的單位成本也較低，主要原因是產量較低。總體而言，這使我們實現了強勁的 233 億美元基本 EBITDA。

Onto the product groups, where we enjoyed a rising contribution from aluminum and copper, iron ore delivered more than $16 billion of EBITDA in 2024. Realized pricing was strong at 99% of the index, and we saw good levels of productivity improvement and met our shipment's guidance. This was all achieved despite the derailment earlier in the year and some adverse weather conditions in Q4 with unusually high rainfall.

在產品組中，鋁和銅的貢獻不斷上升，鐵礦石在 2024 年實現了超過 160 億美元的 EBITDA。實際定價強勁，達到指數的 99%，我們看到了良好的生產力提高水平，並達到了我們的出貨量指導。儘管今年早些時候發生了脫軌事故，並且第四季度出現了降雨量異常高的惡劣天氣條件，但仍然實現了這一目標。

Unit costs came in at $23 a tonne, and we are guiding to around 3% higher this year at the midpoint. 2025 is going to be demanding, as Simon highlighted in December, with depletion peaking at 19 million tonnes. However, we are targeting another 5 million tonnes of productivity improvement from SPS, and Western Range is on plan to commence production in the first half. We continue to advance our next four Pilbara Mine replacement projects. These are progressing well, although timelines are of course subject to receiving environmental and heritage approvals.

單位成本為每噸 23 美元，我們預計今年的中間值將上漲 3% 左右。正如西蒙 12 月所強調的那樣，2025 年將是艱難的一年，資源消耗將達到 1900 萬噸。然而，我們的目標是透過 SPS 再提高 500 萬噸的生產力，Western Range 計劃在上半年開始生產。我們將繼續推進皮爾巴拉礦的下四個替代項目。儘管時間表當然要獲得環境和遺產的批准，但這些工作進展順利。

The product strategy work is ongoing. We are closely reviewing customer requirements and available ore grades. Unfortunately, this year has started with some very challenging weather conditions in the Pilbara. Tropical Cyclone Sean delivered more rain in one day than the wettest January on record and was followed by three more cyclones. First-quarter production is impacted. But importantly, our full-year shipments guidance is unchanged.

產品策略工作正在進行中。我們正在密切審查客戶要求和可用的礦石等級。不幸的是，今年皮爾巴拉地區的天氣狀況一開始就非常惡劣。熱帶氣旋肖恩一天帶來的降雨量超過了有史以來最潮濕的一月份，隨後又帶來了三次氣旋。第一季的生產受到影響。但重要的是，我們的全年出貨量預期保持不變。

Our aluminum performance was impressive, in particular for smelting and bauxite. We were able to take full advantage of stronger markets, leading to a 61% increase in product group EBITDA. Copper was similarly strong, driven by higher prices and rising volumes across the three operations. And lastly minerals, where TiO2 volumes reflected weak Western market conditions for pigment, while IOC has still not achieved the operational stability we're striving for. On the plus side, we achieved Rincon first lithium from the starter plant and approval for full-scale operations.

我們的鋁表現令人印象深刻，尤其是冶煉和鋁土礦。我們充分利用了更強勁的市場，導致產品組 EBITDA 成長了 61%。受價格上漲和三項業務銷售增加的推動，銅價同樣走強。最後是礦物，其中二氧化鈦的產量反映了西方顏料市場的疲軟狀況，而IOC仍然沒有實現我們所追求的營運穩定性。積極的一面是，我們實現了 Rincon 首批鋰產品的啟動，並獲得了全面運營的批准。

Moving to the safe production system. This is now being deployed at 31 or 80% of sites and we're deepening maturity at the initial locations. Our Amrun mine in Queensland is a great example. In 2024, it achieved record bauxite output and is now running above nameplate capacity and was a key driver of our overall 7% production uplift.

向安全生產系統邁進。目前，已有 31 個或 80% 的站點部署了該技術，並且我們正在加深初始位置的成熟度。我們位於昆士蘭的阿姆倫礦場就是一個很好的例子。2024年，該公司實現了創紀錄的鋁土礦產量，目前的產能已超過額定產能，也是我們整體產量提升7%的主要驅動力。

Let's now take a look at OT Underground, best operator excellence in action. In 2024, we achieved all ramp-up milestones, including commissioning the converter surface. As we steadily increase its capacity, output is set to rise by over 50%. And the ramp up will continue over the next three years to 500,000 tonnes per year, on average, over the period 2028 to 2036, making OT the world's fourth largest copper mine by the end of the decade.

現在讓我們來看看OT Underground最佳操作員卓越表現的具體表現。2024 年，我們實現了所有產能提升里程碑，包括轉爐表面的調試。隨著我們穩步提高產能，產量預計將增加50%以上。未來三年，產量將持續上升，2028 年至 2036 年期間，平均每年產量將達 50 萬噸，到 2030 年，OT 銅礦將成為世界第四大銅礦。

We believe that we can realize even more from our existing assets. We're therefore addressing our most complex challenges head-on. Kennecott's ore body is significant. It remains a real opportunity to unlock value in an attractive jurisdiction. Our job is to work through the geotechnical risks and maximize value from all open pit and underground options. And it's vital we turn this asset round and set it up for the future.

我們相信，我們可以從現有資產中獲得更多收益。因此，我們正在迎接最複雜的挑戰。肯尼科特的礦體意義重大。這仍然是一個在有吸引力的司法管轄區釋放價​​值的真正機會。我們的工作是解決岩土風險並最大限度地發揮所有露天和地下開採方案的價值。我們必須扭轉這項資產，為未來做好準備。

Over the last few years, we have learned a lot about the complexity of IOC. As I mentioned in December, we are systematically working through the bottlenecks in order to achieve operational stability. Elsewhere, we are deepening partnerships, bringing Sumitomo into the Winu project and working closely alongside our Chinese partners at Simandou. I was in Guinea last month and was struck by the tremendous progress over the last year. We remain confident that we will achieve first production at SimFer mine gate later this year and ramp up over 30 months to 60 million tonnes per year.

在過去的幾年裡，我們對 IOC 的複雜性有了更多的了解。正如我在 12 月提到的，我們正在系統地解決瓶頸問題，以實現營運穩定。在其他方面，我們正在深化合作夥伴關係，將住友引入維努項目，並與西芒杜的中國合作夥伴密切合作。上個月我去了幾內亞，那裡過去一年來取得的巨大進步令我印象深刻。我們堅信，SimFer 礦井將在今年稍後實現首次投產，並在 30 個月內將產量提高到每年 6,000 萬噸。

Lastly, on decarbonization, we have signed renewable power contracts for around half of Boyne's needs and secured a more flexible energy supply for NZAS, as well as increasing our stake to 100%. We continue to take a very disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our CapEx guidance is unchanged, with growth of around $3 billion each year. The major commitments in 2025 are completion of OT Underground, the ongoing delivery of Simandou, and the start of construction at Rincon.

最後，在脫碳方面，我們已經簽署了可再生能源合同，滿足了博因大約一半的需求，並為 NZAS 確保了更靈活的能源供應，同時將我們的股份增加到 100%。我們繼續採取非常嚴謹的資本配置方法。我們的資本支出指引保持不變，每年增長約 30 億美元。2025 年的主要承諾是完成 OT Underground 工程、持續交付 Simandou 工程以及開始 Rincon 工程的建設。

Over the next few years, production from our projects will take off, particularly driven by OT and Simandou. Our balance sheet strength is the key enabler here. It allows us to run our business consistently and maintain investment through the cycle, offering resilience and creating optionality such as our acquisition of Arcadium. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet.

未來幾年，我們專案的產量將會起飛，尤其是在OT和Simandou的推動下。我們的資產負債表實力是關鍵推動因素。它使我們能夠持續經營業務並在整個週期內保持投資，提供彈性並創造可選性，例如我們對 Arcadium 的收購。我們仍然致力於維持強勁的資產負債表。

And finally, the dividend. In line with our usual practice, we have declared a 60% payout for the full-year ordinary. Our commitment to consistent shareholder returns is unwavering, and we now have a nine-year track record of paying at the top of the range.

最後是股息。按照我們的慣例，我們宣布全年派息 60%。我們始終致力於為股東提供持續的回報，並且我們已經連續九年保持最高水準的股東回報記錄。

With that, let me pass back to Jakob.

說完這些，讓我把話轉回給雅各。

Thank you, Peter. We have made great progress executing our strategy and objectives in 2024. As Peter showed, our momentum towards best operator is helping us get more from our existing assets. The underlying driver is our evolving, more psychologically safe work culture, creating a less hierarchical and more humane organization. We are also capturing operational learnings as we develop major projects.

謝謝你，彼得。我們在執行2024年策略和目標方面取得了巨大進展。正如彼得所展示的，我們追求最佳營運商的勢頭正在幫助我們從現有資產中獲得更多收益。其根本驅動力是我們不斷發展的、更具心理安全的工作文化，從而打造一個等級制度更少、更人性化的組織。在開發重大專案的過程中，我們也累積營運經驗。

For example, Simandou is progressing at a breathtaking speed on schedule and on budget. Of course, 2024 was the year of lithium as we sought to diversify our portfolio further. And our deepening project expertise is giving us the tools we need to also build a world-class lithium business. Rincon went from greenfield to first Lithium in only 32 months, and we are now scaling up the site with confidence.

例如，西芒杜專案正以驚人的速度、按時、按預算取得進展。當然，2024 年是鋰年，因為我們尋求進一步實現投資組合多元化。我們不斷深化的專案專業知識為我們提供了打造世界一流鋰業務所需的工具。僅花了 32 個月的時間，Rincon 就從一片綠地發展成為第一家生產鋰礦的公司，現在我們正滿懷信心地擴大生產規模。

Meanwhile, combining our Rincon learnings, technology, and balance sheet with Arcadium's expertise will allow us to realize the full potential of Arcadium's assets. The acquisition is advancing at pace and set to close within the first quarter. Enhancing our existing operations and evolving our portfolio in line with demand provides a strong base for us to succeed in the short, medium, and long term.

同時，將我們的 Rincon 學習、技術和資產負債表與 Arcadium 的專業知識相結合，將使我們能夠充分發揮 Arcadium 資產的潛力。此次收購正在快速推進，預計將在第一季內完成。加強我們現有的業務並根據需求改進我們的產品組合為我們在短期、中期和長期取得成功奠定了堅實的基礎。

Yes, we can expect more global volatility in the year ahead, but our strategy enables us to be resilient in an uncertain world and capture new opportunities as they arise. So let's look at the year ahead. There are important milestones to come, including Oya Tolgoi's ramp up, first production at the mine gate from Simandou, and the rollout of technologies, including AP60. And throughout our year, our priority is to intensify our focus on best operator to drive improvements everywhere.

是的，我們可以預計未來一年全球將出現更多動盪，但我們的策略使我們能夠在不確定的世界中保持彈性，並抓住出現的新機會。讓我們展望一下未來的一年。未來也將出現一些重要的里程碑，包括奧亞陶勒蓋礦的產能提升、西芒杜礦井的首次生產以及 AP60 等技術的推出。全年我們的首要任務是加強對最佳營運商的關注，以推動各方面的改進。

The outlook gets even more exciting further down the line: 1 million tonnes of copper a year this decade, growing our leading aluminum business, expansion in high-grade iron ore, and a leading lithium business. That's not all. We have a rich pipeline of projects, exploration, and technologies in development that will support our growth and provide materials needed for the energy transition.

未來的前景將更加令人興奮：未來十年每年生產 100 萬噸銅，成長我們領先的鋁業務，擴大高品位鐵礦石業務，並擁有領先的鋰業務。這還不是全部。我們擁有豐富的項目、勘探和正在開發的技術，它們將支持我們的成長並提供能源轉型所需的材料。

That brings me on to decarbonization. It is worth highlighting that we made significant progress in 2024. This was a record year for our emission reduction. We have moved from strategy to action, cutting emissions by 14% between 2018 and 2024, bucking the trend at a time when they are on the rise globally, and we have done it without compromising our shareholder returns.

這讓我開始談論脫碳。值得強調的是，我們在 2024 年取得了重大進展。這是我們減排創紀錄的一年。我們已將策略轉化為行動，在2018年至2024年期間將排放量減少14％，在全球排放量上升的背景下逆勢而上，而且我們做到了這一點，並沒有損害股東回報。

2024 was also a record year of project approvals to meet our future targets. These recent commitments have significantly advanced our progress towards our 2030 target to cut emissions by 50%, which we are pursuing with a relentless focus on value. In summary, our strong operational and financial results tells us Rio Tinto has momentum on its trajectory for a decade of growth.

2024 年也是專案審批創紀錄的一年，有助於我們實現未來目標。這些最近的承諾極大地推動了我們實現 2030 年減排 50% 的目標，我們正堅持不懈地追求這一目標。總而言之，強勁的營運和財務表現告訴我們力拓在未來十年的成長軌跡中保持著強勁勢頭。

We have also shown leadership in project development, and we are embedding those learnings throughout the organization. Crucially, we are delivering consistent shareholder value as we diversify and decarbonize our portfolio and strengthen our business further. No matter what comes our way, cyclones and all, I have confidence that it will be a very decent year ahead, because I have an excellent team and we have an excellent resource base. Thank you.

我們也在專案開發中展現了領導力，並且正在將這些經驗滲透到整個組織中。至關重要的是，我們在實現投資組合多元化和脫碳以及進一步加強業務的同時，也為股東提供了持續的價值。不管遇到什麼情況，颶風等，我都有信心，新的一年將會是非常美好的一年，因為我擁有優秀的團隊，我們擁有優秀的資源基礎。謝謝。

Good morning, afternoon, and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining the call today. My name is Rachel Arellano. For those who have not yet met me, I'm really excited to be here, my first full-year results as Head of Investor Relations at Rio Tinto.

大家早安、下午好、晚上好。感謝您今天的電話會議。我的名字是 Rachel Arellano。對於那些還沒有認識我的人來說，我真的很高興來到這裡，這是我作為力拓投資者關係主管以來的第一個全年業績。

Jakob and Peter have taken you through their introductory remarks on our strong operational and financial results for the year 2024. We will now follow with a question-and-answer session for 45 minutes. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up so that we can cover as many people as possible. With that, I will now hand over to the operator. Thank you.

Jakob 和 Peter 向您介紹了我們 2024 年強勁的營運和財務表現。接下來我們將進行 45 分鐘的問答環節。請將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，以便我們可以覆蓋盡可能多的人。說完這些，我現在將麥克風交給接線員。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示） 摩根士丹利的拉胡爾·阿南德 (Rahul Anand)。

Hi, Peter, Jakob, and team. Thanks for the call. First question is for Peter, perhaps. Peter, the dividend policy and the dividend today, obviously great consistency and predictability, having paid 60% of EPS over the past nine years. If I look through the detail, however, obviously the dividend represents a payout greater than 100% of the free cash generation, or my number is about 120%.

嗨，Peter、Jakob 和團隊。感謝您的來電。也許第一個問題是問彼得的。Peter，股息政策和今天的股息顯然具有很大的一致性和可預測性，過去九年一直支付 60% 的每股收益。然而，如果我仔細查看細節，顯然股息代表著超過自由現金產生的 100％ 的支出，或者我的數字是 120％ 左右。

And if you look into the future, you've obviously got higher CapEx, which implies your dividend at the 60% level is probably going to exceed the free cash flow in future periods as well. So I guess my question is, are you comfortable adding debt to maintain that EPS payout level in future periods? That's the first one. Thanks.

如果你展望未來，你顯然會有更高的資本支出，這意味著 60% 的股息可能也會超過未來時期的自由現金流。所以我想我的問題是，您是否願意增加債務以維持未來期間的每股盈餘支付水準？這是第一個。謝謝。

Well, I think the key point is that we are investing in some pretty attractive growth through the OT Underground and through Simandou, which is going to add incremental cash flows into the system. So the answer is yes. I mean, right now, we had a small deficit of free cash flow to investment, but those incremental cash flows really give us the confidence going forward to pay the dividends at the level it is.

嗯，我認為關鍵點是我們正在透過 OT Underground 和 Simandou 投資一些相當有吸引力的成長，這將為系統增加增量現金流。所以答案是肯定的。我的意思是，現在，我們的投資自由現金流略有赤字，但這些增量現金流確實給了我們信心，讓我們有信心在未來支付現有的股利。

Got it, that's very clear. And look, a quick second one for Jakob perhaps. Congratulations, obviously, on the strong performance from the aluminum business for the period. Just under a scenario, Jakob, where you do have tariffs on Canadian goods come in, I mean, how would the aluminum business be able to cope with that? Just wanted to understand, under a scenario where you're perhaps shipping your product to Europe. I mean, is there capacity in the trade routes available? What incremental costs should we think about? Obviously, there's a lot of volatility, but it would help us sort of square the circle on that. Thanks.

明白了，非常清楚。瞧，也許雅各會迅速獲得第二名。顯然，我們要祝賀鋁業務在此期間的強勁表現。雅各布，假設加拿大商品被徵收關稅，那麼鋁業將如何應對？只是想了解一下您可能將產品運送到歐洲的情況。我的意思是，貿易路線是否有足夠的容量？我們應該考慮哪些增量成本？顯然，存在著很大的波動性，但它可以幫助我們解決這個問題。謝謝。

Yes. Thank you, Rahul. I am in Washington, DC, and I'm trying to understand what the US wants to achieve. Bear in mind that we produce a lot in the US, different products, and then A number of products are being imported for us into the US. So first of all, the economic impact on tariffs to Rio Tinto might be both pluses and minuses, and we don't know whether the net will be positive or negative.

是的。謝謝你，拉胡爾。我現在在華盛頓特區，試圖了解美國想要實現什麼。請記住，我們在美國生產許多不同的產品，然後將許多產品進口到美國。首先，關稅對力拓的經濟影響可能是有利有弊，我們不知道淨影響是正面的還是負面的。

But it really depends on how the tariff hits. If all countries are getting a tariff, the impact for us is zero. The problem is if it's only one country and the country we are selling into. But then, of course, we could redirect our aluminum to other markets and other producers will supply the US market. So new balances will arise. It's far too early to conclude anything on where tariffs will end. And that's why my focus is to try to understand what is it the US wants to achieve. At the end of the day, tariffs is only an instrument.

但這實際上取決於關稅的具體影響。如果所有國家都徵收關稅，對我們來說影響就為零。問題是如果只有一個國家並且我們只向該國家銷售產品。當然，我們可以將鋁轉向其他市場，其他生產商將供應美國市場。因此新的平衡就會出現。目前就關稅何時終止下結論還為時過早。這就是為什麼我的重點是試著了解美國想要實現什麼。從根本上講，關稅只是一種手段。

And allow me just to follow up on what Peter said. I think it's so fundamental, your first dividend question. I actually did the math here because you have seen that we, nine years in a row, have paid 60% of dividend, the maximum of our policy. We've actually paid $72 billion of ordinary dividend over the last nine years. In that period, we have reduced the debt to half the size and we have stepped up CapEx. And we have gone from contracting our production volume to growing it, and now we have a clear decade of 3% production growth ahead of us. And therefore, if you just look at that statistics, we feel really comfortable about meeting your dividend requirements for the future.

請容許我接著彼得所說的話。我認為這是非常基本的問題，也是你的第一個股利問題。我實際上在這裡做了計算，因為你們已經看到，我們連續九年支付了 60％ 的股息，這是我們政策的最高限額。過去九年我們實際上已經支付了720億美元的普通股息。在此期間，我們將債務減少了一半，並增加了資本支出。我們的產量已從縮減轉為增加，未來十年我們的產量將明顯維持 3% 的成長率。因此，如果您只看一下這些統計數據，我們就會非常放心滿足您未來的股息需求。

Absolutely. No, that is definitely commendable, Jakob. Thank you very much. That's my questions.

絕對地。不，這絕對值得稱讚，雅各。非常感謝。這就是我的問題。

Jason Fairclough, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑森·費爾克拉夫（Jason Fairclough）。

Good morning, good evening, good afternoon, I guess all of the above to everybody on the call. Thanks for the opportunity. A couple for me, Jakob. First one, I guess, again, on tariffs. As an executive, given the volatility on the news flow around tariffs, are you more or less minded to make more investments in the US and Canada at the moment?

早安，晚上好，下午好，我想以上都是對電話中各位的問候。謝謝你的機會。對我來說是一對，雅各。我想，第一個問題還是關於關稅。身為高階主管，考慮到關稅新聞流的波動，您現在是否更願意或更不願意在美國和加拿大進行更多投資？

Right now, as I say, I'm sitting in the US. We are very keen to invest in the US. As you know, we have a potential copper mine resolution that could produce 25% of the copper needs for the US. We also are one of only two who has a copper smelter, and it's been difficult to make money on copper smelting in the US. And maybe there will be better conditions for that in the future, so I wouldn't mind seeing further investment into the US.

正如我所說，現在我正坐在美國。我們非常熱衷於在美國投資。如你所知，我們有一個潛在的銅礦解決方案，可以滿足美國 25% 的銅需求。我們也是僅有的兩家擁有銅冶煉廠的公司之一，在美國，靠銅冶煉賺錢一直很困難。也許未來會有更好的條件，所以我並不介意看到對美國進行進一步的投資。

But I'm also very keen on investing in Canada, and we are investing a lot in Canada right now as you know. And I'm very pleased to inform you that the project is on schedule and on the AP60, the first new smelter in the Western world for 16 years. And I'm very comfortable about that one.

但我也非常熱衷於在加拿大投資，正如你所知，我們現在在加拿大投資了很多。我很高興地通知大家，該專案正在按計劃進行，AP60是16年來西方世界第一座新冶煉廠。我對此感到非常滿意。

But of course, there's a little bit of uncertainty right now. But I think the way to look at it right now is instead of just looking at the downside, when you have fairly seismic change, opportunities arise. And it's really the opportunities I'm looking for right now. So there's nothing about cutting down on investments in Canada right now. Thank you.

但當然，現在存在一些不確定性。但我認為現在看待這個問題的方式是不要只看不利的一面，當你經歷相當大的變化時，機會就會出現。這確實是我現在正在尋找的機會。因此，目前沒有必要削減對加拿大的投資。謝謝。

This is a follow up, if I could. And this might be for Peter. And Peter, you're alluding to the fact, I think, that you're partway through a lot of these growth projects. And I was just looking at your balance sheet. I think it's $100 billion of assets. It's just under $70 billion of property, plant, and equipment. Off the top of your head, have you got a feel for how much of that PP&E is actually unproductive today that it would become productive in the next few years?

如果可以的話，這是一個後續行動。這也許適合彼得。彼得，我認為，你暗示了一個事實，你正在完成許多這樣的成長項目。我剛才正在看你的資產負債表。我認為這是 1000 億美元的資產。其財產、廠房和設備價值略低於 700 億美元。您是否能即刻想到，目前這些 PP&E 實際上有多少是沒有生產力的，並且在未來幾年內會有多少變得富有生產力？

Jason, not off the top of my head, but fundamentally, on Simandou, we sent $2.4 billion of our share of the CapEx, so about 40% of the way through by the end of last year. Clearly, that's not producing anything at this moment in time. And on OT, we spent -- I think we're 95% there of the CapEx, but we're only just starting to go through the ramp-up process. I mean, we talked in the presentation that we expect more than 50% uplifting copper output this year, 25% versus 24%. So they are the two big components if you like. But certainly, they're on the balance sheet and not yet translating into anything like the full cash flows.

傑森，這不是我一口氣想出來的，但從根本上講，在西芒杜項目上，我們已撥付了 24 億美元的資本支出份額，因此截至去年年底，已完成約 40%。顯然，這目前還沒有任何成果。在加班方面，我們認為資本支出已經佔了 95%，但我們才剛開始經歷加速過程。我的意思是，我們在報告中說過，我們預計今年的銅產量將增加 50% 以上，而去年同期的增幅為 25% 至 24%。如果你願意的話，它們就是兩個重要組成部分。但可以肯定的是，它們在資產負債表上，還沒有轉化為任何類似全部現金流的東西。

Thanks a lot, Peter.

非常感謝，彼得。

Paul Young, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的保羅楊（Paul Young）。

Good afternoon, Jakob and Peter. I hope you're both well. Jakob, a few questions on the Pilbara, please. The first one is on just guidance and the fact that you have lost 13 million tonnes of production from the wet weather, which is effectively your guidance range or the spread. You said you can make up around half of that, and I think you generally budget for seven to ten lost days from weather each year anyway, but you're holding your guidance. I would have thought, though, that commentary would have been guiding to the lower to the midrange. I'm just curious about, are you really just waiting for the complete review of the infrastructure impact?

下午好，雅各和彼得。我希望你們都很好。雅各布，請問幾個關於皮爾巴拉的問題。第一個是關於僅僅是指導，事實上由於陰雨天氣你已經損失了 1300 萬噸的產量，這實際上是你的指導範圍或差價。您說您可以彌補其中的一半左右，而且我認為您每年通常會預算因天氣原因而損失的七到十天，但您堅持您的指導。不過，我原本以為這些評論會引導人們走向中低階。我只是好奇，您真的只是在等待對基礎設施影響的全面審查嗎？

Yes, thank you, Paul. I do think we know quite well where we are. But what we, of course, don't know is whether we get more cyclones in the months ahead. And what I will say to you, we're only in February. I just spent three weeks in Australia, and I spent time up in the mines. Fortunately, there were no cyclones when I was there. They are doing an amazing job at the moment. The SPS is really working. The culture is changing. The maintenance is in a much better shape. Our rail lines are working very well. So I actually feel very comfortable.

是的，謝謝你，保羅。我確實認為我們非常清楚自己所處的位置。但我們當然不知道未來幾個月是否還會遭遇更多颶風。我要告訴你們的是，現在才二月。我剛剛在澳洲待了三個星期，期間我在礦井裡度過了一段時間。幸運的是，我去的時候沒有遭遇氣旋。他們目前正在做著一項了不起的工作。SPS 確實有效。文化正在改變。維護狀況好多了。我們的鐵路線運作良好。所以我實際上感覺非常舒服。

And of course, we have talked to Simon Trott and his team, and they feel comfortable with the guidance as it is right now. It's clear that it will have an impact on first quarter production and sales volume. And it's a bit unlucky circumstances, the whole story from a lot of water in December into the three or four events we have just recently had. But if we felt we should change the guidance, we would have changed the guidance. But given where we are today, the guidance is the guidance. And that is, of course, a vote of confidence in what they're doing. But I really feel it's the best guidance we can give to the market. Thank you.

當然，我們已經與西蒙·特羅特和他的團隊進行了交談，他們對目前的指導感到滿意。顯然這將對第一季的產銷量產生影響。這是有點不幸的情況，整個故事從 12 月的大量積水到最近發生的三到四起事件。但如果我們認為應該改變指導方針，我們就會改變指導方針。但考慮到我們目前的狀況，指導就是指導。當然，這是對他們所做工作的信任。但我確實認為這是我們能給市場的最佳指引。謝謝。

Okay, thanks Jakob. And then maybe just on the long run, and actually Rhodes Ridge, great to see Mitsui come in as a JV partner, seeing you have a long-standing relationship through Rhode River and also, more importantly, Cape Lambert port. So I'm just curious, on your views. It seems like a pretty big number they've paid, so I'm just curious about your views on that, and do you think they're assuming a larger operation?

好的，謝謝 Jakob。然後可能只是從長遠來看，實際上 Rhodes Ridge 很高興看到三井作為合資夥伴加入，看到你們透過 Rhode River 以及更重要的是 Cape Lambert 港口建立了長期的合作關係。所以我只是好奇你的觀點。他們支付的金額似乎相當大，所以我很好奇您對此的看法，您是否認為他們假設了更大規模的營運？

And then secondly, the fact that they own a stake in Cape Lambert, just with the infrastructure charges, does this change any way, potentially, the effect of equity tonnes or free cash flow that you might get out of Rhodes Ridge?

其次，他們擁有 Cape Lambert 的股份，僅收取基礎設施費用，這是否會改變您可能從 Rhodes Ridge 獲得的股權噸數或自由現金流的影響？

Thank you. No, absolutely no changes to that. We have a very good relationship with the two families. But particularly the one family, for strategic reasons, did not want to be participating. So it's super good news that we are getting towards the end ownership of the joint venture so that we can really progressing at that.

謝謝。不，絕對沒有改變。我們和這兩個家族的關係都非常好。但有一個家族，由於戰略原因，不想參加。因此，我們即將獲得合資企業的最終所有權，這是一個非常好的消息，這樣我們才能真正取得進展。

And then you asked me about the valuation. And unfortunately, Paul, I cannot do your job, but I think it's very, very transparent that we are dealing with an asset that is worth an enormous lot of money. And don't forget, we are very happy with our 50% ownership because our economics is considerably more than the 50%, because we will get the full synergies from using the rail and the port. So I think you actually have got -- all of you analysts have got some really important points to help you valuing our iron ore business. Over to you, Paul. Thank you.

然後你問我估值。不幸的是，保羅，我不能做你的工作，但我認為，非常透明的是，我們正在處理的是一項價值連城的資產。而且別忘了，我們對擁有 50% 的所有權感到非常高興，因為我們的經濟效益遠遠超過 50%，因為我們將從使用鐵路和港口中獲得充分的協同效應。所以我認為你們實際上已經——你們所有分析師都已經提出了一些非常重要的觀點來幫助你們評估我們的鐵礦石業務。交給你了，保羅。謝謝。

Got it. Good work today. Thanks, Jakob.

知道了。今天幹得好。謝謝，雅各。

Lyndon Fagan, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的林登費根 (Lyndon Fagan)。

Hi, everyone. Jakob, thanks for the call. Just wanted to touch on the Pilbara replacement mines. Again, it feels like results keep rolling by and we're no closer to getting approvals; obviously, depletion really kicking in. Can you comment maybe about the 345 to 360 shipment range and when you expect to achieve that now? It really does feel like we're creeping up to some of that timeline flipping. And then I've got a follow up as well. Thanks.

大家好。雅各布，謝謝你的來電。只是想談談皮爾巴拉替代礦場。再說了，感覺結果不斷湧現，但我們仍然沒有接近獲得批准；顯然，資源消耗確實開始顯現。您能否評論一下 345 至 360 的出貨量範圍以及您預計何時能夠實現這一目標？這確實感覺我們正在慢慢地經歷一些時間線的翻轉。然後我也會進行後續跟進。謝謝。

Yes. Let me start and hand over to Peter, but just a couple of things. I mean, first of all, you have good news today about Rhodes Ridge. We have just talked about that. I know what you're saying. You're talking about the interim between that and now. I will say to you as well, which is also good news, is that Western Range is on schedule, on budget, so that will be ramping up shortly, and we are making focus on those things.

是的。讓我先把麥克風交給彼得，不過我只想說幾件事。我的意思是，首先，今天你有關於羅茲山脊的好消息。我們剛才已經討論過這個問題。我知道你在說什麼。您說的是從那時到現在的過渡期。我還要告訴你，這也是一個好消息，西部山脈計畫正在按計畫、在預算內完成，所以很快就會開始，我們正把重點放在這些事情上。

But you're right, the beauty about the iron ore system is that we don't have constraints in the port and the rail. And we are becoming more and more productive in the mine, so the constraining factor is really about getting access to land. We are making progress at the moment, but that's the critical part. There is absolutely no change to what Simon Trott told you at the Capital Markets Day. But Peter, why don't you just elaborate on that?

但你說得對，鐵礦石系統的優點在於我們在港口和鐵路方面沒有受到限制。而且我們礦井的生產力越來越高，因此限制因素其實就是取得土地的權利。我們目前正在取得進展，但這是關鍵的部分。西蒙·特羅特 (Simon Trott) 在資本市場日告訴您的內容完全相同。但是彼得，為什麼不詳細解釋一下呢？

Jakob, that was going to be my punchline, exactly that, that we are pretty much progressing as we thought. So there's no change to the timelines we've talked for the four big replacement mines that are going to come through. They're certainly moving through the system. We can't be sure on timelines around approvals. But at the moment, we feel that they're moving along the timelines that we expected.

雅各布，這就是我的妙語，正是如此，我們基本上按照我們想像的那樣進展。因此，我們談論的四大替代礦山的開採時間表並沒有改變。他們確實正在通過這個系統。我們無法確定批准的時間表。但目前，我們感覺他們正在按照我們預期的時間表進行。

Okay. Well, I guess -- yes, the pressure's on for 2028, I guess. But look, the next question I had was a market question. I mean, we've observed Chinese iron ore imports ramping up over the last few years, just as steel production has been falling. And I guess, through the Simandou project alone, most of the market is bearish on iron ore. and here we are seeing Chinese imports grow in a falling steel environment.

好的。嗯，我想是的，我想 2028 年的壓力確實存在。但是看，我的下一個問題是一個市場問題。我的意思是，我們觀察到，過去幾年，中國鐵礦石進口量不斷增加，而鋼鐵產量卻一直在下降。而且我估計，僅透過西芒杜項目，大部分市場就對鐵礦石持悲觀看法。我們看到，在鋼鐵價格下滑的情況下，中國進口量卻出現成長。

I'm wondering what your observations are around why Chinese iron ore imports continue to rise. I know we've seen domestic depletion, et cetera. Any commentary there? And I guess as a related topic, your market impact assessment on bringing Simandou on and how disruptive that might be.

我想知道您對中國鐵礦石進口量持續上升有何看法。我知道我們已經看到了國內資源枯竭等等。有什麼評論嗎？我想作為一個相關主題，您對引入西芒杜的市場影響評估以及這可能帶來的破壞性有多大。

Lyndon, we effectively are still seeing Chinese production of steel around 1 billion tonnes, and that is clearly driving the iron ore demand. We did see some increase in port stocks in 2024, about 30 million tonnes. But fundamentally, it was that steel production rate that drove the demand for iron ore. We would say that the prognosis we gave to the market over the last sort of two years is keeping going.

林登，我們實際上仍看到中國鋼鐵產量約 10 億噸，這顯然推動了鐵礦石的需求。我們確實看到 2024 年港口庫存增加，約 3,000 萬噸。但從根本上來說，鋼鐵產量推動了鐵礦石的需求。我們可以這樣說，過去兩年我們給市場的預測仍然有效。

I mean, there is a chunk of supply of iron ore coming in from the majors, but there's still 600 or 700 million tonnes there that is coming into the market from Chinese domestic, from a whole variety of land-borne and seaborne suppliers around the world. And you've seen a lot of inflation in the cost curve over the last few years, giving more support into the iron ore market. And we've just seen that every time there's been sort of the prices come down, it's bounced back up because of that cost support around the supply curve.

我的意思是，有大量的鐵礦石供應來自主要鐵礦石供應商，但仍有 6 億或 7 億噸的鐵礦石來自中國國內以及世界各地的各種陸運和海運供應商。過去幾年，成本曲線大幅上漲，為鐵礦石市場提供了更多支撐。我們剛剛看到，每次價格下跌，它就會因為供應曲線周圍的成本支撐而反彈。

So I think we just sort of have no change to our view on that. It's just, I think, remains a very robust market. And the fact that you have that sort of big, big swathe of sort of supply there, which is clearly striving to meet Chinese demand, is where Simandou fits in. I mean, this is high-grade, low-cost iron ore, which we think there's an absolute place in the market balance because of that overall supply curve. So no change really, Lyndon, to our view on what's happening there.

所以我認為我們對此的看法沒有改變。我認為，它仍然是一個非常強大的市場。事實上，你們那裡有如此大量的供應，顯然是在努力滿足中國的需求，而西芒杜正是可以參與其中的。我的意思是，這是高品位、低成本的鐵礦石，我們認為，由於整體供應曲線，它在市場平衡中佔有絕對地位。所以林登，我們對那裡發生的事情的看法實際上沒有改變。

And I think I should probably add a little bit because sometimes you read things in the newspapers from various sources. Yes, Simandou is going amazingly well. It's really focusing at -- I call it breathtaking speed, because it does. But it's only first ore at the end of this year, and it's going to take 30 months to ramp up. And it's only 6% of the world's seaborne iron ore that will come out in aggregate from Simandou. And we think there's space in the market for that.

我想我應該補充一點，因為有時你會在報紙上從各種來源讀到一些事情。是的，西芒杜進展非常順利。它真的聚焦於——我稱之為驚人的速度，因為它確實如此。但今年年底才產出第一批礦石，還需要 30 個月的時間才能達到產量。全球海運鐵礦石總量中僅有 6% 來自西芒杜。我們認為市場還有這樣的空間。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ephrem Ravi, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Ephrem Ravi。

Thank you. The first question, of the 2.5 billion for Rincon that you plan to spend over the next four years, how much would you expect to spend this year? Or is the acceleration of the project also subject to formation of those super sites for lithium in Argentina as part of your plan after closing the Arcadium transaction?

謝謝。第一個問題，您計劃在未來四年為 Rincon 投入 25 億美元，其中今年預計投入多少？或者，作為 Arcadium 交易結束後計畫的一部分，該計畫的加速推進是否也取決於在阿根廷建立那些超級鋰礦？

Yes, I'll ask Peter to answer the exact number of this year of Rincon. It's a fairly smaller part of it, but let's just start with the good news. Arcadium, that transaction has gone extremely smoothly, and we thought it might take up to a year to close the deal. But we announced it in October, and now we might actually be able to close it here. if not by March 1, then in the course of March. And I'm planning to go to Argentina myself here in March and go and see the sites.

是的，我會請彼得回答 Rincon 今年的具體數字。這只是一個相當小的部分，但我們還是從好消息開始。Arcadium，那筆交易進行得非常順利，我們以為可能需要一年的時間才能完成交易。但我們在十月就宣布了這一點，現在我們可能實際上能夠在這裡結束它了。如果 3 月 1 日之前沒有完成，那麼將在 3 月完成。我計劃三月親自去阿根廷參觀那裡的景點。

It goes without saying that certain things you can't do before you have closed the deal. And from there on, we will very quickly develop a plan for exactly where investments will happen and how fast we can ramp them up.

毋庸置疑，在完成交易之前有些事情你是不能做的。從那時起，我們很快就會制定出一項計劃，明確投資的地點和增加投資的速度。

So given the fact that we haven't closed the deal, it would be not very smart of us to share a plan. We have a plan, but we're going to learn much more. So far, everything looks very good. And integration, I'm very comfortable on that as well. I think there's a good match of cultures between the two companies. I have hired Paul Graves to lead our Elysium business. And I think, in general, we are on a path to retaining people and from there learn from each other and get more technical excellence and really drive the growth forward. But Peter, how much are we going to spend on Rincon?

因此，考慮到我們尚未完成交易，分享計劃對我們來說並不是明智之舉。我們有一個計劃，但我們還將繼續學習更多。到目前為止，一切看起來都很好。對於整合，我也非常滿意。我認為兩家公司的文化非常契合。我已經聘請了 Paul Graves 來領導我們的 Elysium 業務。我認為，總的來說，我們正走在留住人才的道路上，並從中相互學習，獲得更多的技術優勢，真正推動成長。但彼得，我們要在 Rincon 上花多少錢？

This year clearly is the first year of construction, and so you always have a slower buildup on that profile. So we would expect it to be around $0.5 billion of spend this year.

今年顯然是建設的第一年，因此該方面的建設速度總是比較慢。因此我們預計今年的支出將達到約 5 億美元。

Thank you. And a follow up on the iron ore business. So if I assume that 13 million tonnes is lost for the year, would it be also fair to assume that there would be a lower proportion of SP10 in 2025 compared to 2024? The SP10 volumes last year was about 60 million tonnes. So is there enough flex in the system to reduce proportionately the amount of SP10 and do more Pilbara blend?

謝謝。並跟進鐵礦石業務。因此，如果我假設今年的損失為 1300 萬噸，那麼是否可以公平地假設 2025 年的 SP10 比例將低於 2024 年？去年 SP10 的產量約 6,000 萬噸。那麼，系統是否具有足夠的靈活性來按比例減少 SP10 的數量並增加皮爾巴拉混合量？

I think the key point there is that the reason why losing the ports is important because we usually have excess capacity in the ports, and we can make it up during the year from the mines when we lose port capacity. But we can't this year, because, effectively, the whole system is sort of stocked out in part. So that's what's meaning that we can't move the tonnes, so it really doesn't change our view that we will continue to have elevated SB10 this year.

我認為關鍵在於，失去港口的原因很重要，因為我們的港口通常擁有過剩的產能，當我們失去港口產能時，我們可以在一年內從礦場中彌補。但今年我們不能這樣做，因為實際上整個系統的部分庫存已經不足了。這就是我們無法移動噸位的意思，所以這實際上並沒有改變我們今年將繼續提高 SB10 的觀點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Stein, Macquarie.

麥格理的羅布‧斯坦 (Rob Stein)。

Hi, Jakob, and thank you for the opportunity. A couple of -- well, two questions just on your CapEx guidance, so the $11 billion this year, excluding the one on closure and the one on exploration and development. Just looking forward, when Arcadium does come in and you re-sequence the portfolio, are we expecting upside risk to that sort of $11 billion number? Or is that $11 billion number being provided knowing that there are capital requirements with Arcadium? And I've got to follow up.

你好，Jakob，謝謝你給我這個機會。嗯，兩個問題僅關於您的資本支出指導，今年是 110 億美元，不包括關閉資金和勘探與開發資金。展望未來，當 Arcadium 入駐並且您重新排序投資組合時，我們是否預計 110 億美元這個數字存在上行風險？或者說，提供 110 億美元這個數字時，是否知道 Arcadium 有資本要求？我必須跟進。

So Robert, when you look at our capital guidance, we said $11 billion for 2025, and some of that was because we actually spent a bit less in 2024. We were at 9.5, so we had a bit of flow over into 2025. But post that, our guidance is 10 to 11, and we're hoping to maintain it more towards the 10 level. And when you look at our sort of the overall growth aspect, which any Arcadian projects would fit into, we've got OT coming out of the system by the end of this year, the underground spend. Big year for Simandou next year.

所以羅伯特，當你查看我們的資本指引時，我們說 2025 年將達到 110 億美元，部分原因是我們在 2024 年的實際支出較少。我們的數字是 9.5，因此我們有點流向 2025 年。但在此之後，我們的預期是 10 到 11，我們希望將其保持在 10 的水平。當您查看我們的整體成長方面時，您會發現任何 Arcadian 專案都適合於此，到今年年底，我們的系統就會產生 OT，即地下支出。明年對西芒杜來說將是重要的一年。

But the really big year is this year for spend. By the end of this year, we'll spend something like two-thirds of the capital. So the space really opens up in '26 and into '27 for project funding, and that's why we're pretty comfortable that what we'll need to spend on growing and building out the projects within the Orcadian portfolio can be accommodated within our current guidance.

但就支出而言，今年才是真正重要的一年。到今年年底，我們將花費約三分之二的資金。因此，在 26 年和 27 年，專案融資的空間真正打開了，這就是為什麼我們非常放心，我們需要在 Orcadian 投資組合中發展和建設專案上花費的資金可以在我們目前的指導範圍內得到滿足。

Thank you. And then I guess the linked question around Pilbara CapEx, kind of getting to Lyndon's point earlier. When you think about the heritage profile, the risks to approvals, and the CapEx burden of trying to sustain that business, and then you're reviewing the Pilbara blend strategy, are we to think that there will be optimization with the Pilbara Blend strategy that will de-risk that production profile, i.e., we're taking the sustaining mines off the critical path?

謝謝。然後我想關於皮爾巴拉資本支出的相關問題有點涉及林登之前的觀點。當您考慮歷史概況、審批風險以及維持該業務的資本支出負擔，然後審查皮爾巴拉混合戰略時，我們是否應該認為皮爾巴拉混合戰略將進行優化，從而降低生產概況的風險，即，我們將維持性礦山從關鍵路徑中剔除？

So Robert, I think the key point is that those projects that we talked to, those four projects, it's not as though things are standing still and we've not got any sense of them moving forward. We absolutely have. And so they are moving forward, as we said, as we expect. And those four projects are sort of absolutely foundational to the whole system going forward.

所以羅伯特，我認為關鍵在於，我們談到的四個項目，並不是停滯不前，我們也沒有感覺到它們有任何進展。我們絕對有。正如我們所說，正如我們預期，他們正在向前邁進。這四個項目對於整個系統未來的發展而言絕對是基礎性的。

So we're seeing them move as we would expect to see them move towards their final approvals with the necessary heritage clearances in place as well. I think that's the key point. So we are absolutely reviewing the Pilbara product strategy as well. That's work in progress, and we'll see where that takes us but fundamentally see the four projects as sort of foundational under any way forward.

因此，我們看到他們正在採取行動，正如我們期望看到他們最終獲得批准並獲得必要的遺產許可一樣。我認為這就是關鍵點。因此我們也在重新檢視皮爾巴拉的產品策略。這項工作正在進行中，我們將拭​​目以待，看看它將給我們帶來什麼，但從根本上說，這四個項目無論如何都將成為未來發展的基礎。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Richard Hatch, Berenberg.

理查德·哈奇，貝倫貝格。

Thanks, team, and thanks for the call. First question is just on iron ore costs. So $23 to $24.5 a tonne seems a little bit above where the Street was looking for. Can you just talk about whether '25 is perhaps the peak year for costs grinding higher in the Pilbara, and how do we think about that $20 a tonne medium-term target with that in mind? That's the first one. Thanks.

謝謝團隊，謝謝您的來電。第一個問題是關於鐵礦石成本的。因此，每噸 23 至 24.5 美元的價格似乎略高於華爾街的預期。您能否談談 25 年是否是皮爾巴拉地區成本上漲的頂峰年，考慮到這一點，我們如何看待每噸 20 美元的中期目標？這是第一個。謝謝。

So Richard, I think the outcome, $23, is pretty good at the half-year. We were at 23.2, so the second half was coming in lower. I mean, the key point as well is that we had lower tonnes through the system, 1% lower, sort of 4 million tonnes of production that clearly has an effect on your unit costs. It was about half of the delta on year on year. I think what we're seeing is a lot of productivity start to be driven through the Pilbara system. And I think it's really -- it's pretty impressive what they're doing. And I sort of referred just to the changes being in employee productivity rates being experienced there.

所以理查德，我認為半年的結果 23 美元已經相當不錯了。我們的成績是 23.2，所以下半場的成績會更低。我的意思是，關鍵點還在於我們整個系統的產量較低，降低了 1%，大約 400 萬噸的產量，這顯然對單位成本產生了影響。與去年同期相比，這一增幅約為一半。我認為我們看到大量生產力開始透過皮爾巴拉系統來推動。我認為他們所做的事情確實令人印象深刻。我只是提到了那裡員工生產力正在發生的變化。

I think the team's doing a great job, but there remains a lot of inflation in the Western Australian market that we have to offset as we move forward. So that's where the guidance is up 3% year on year at the midpoint. I think when it comes to the $20 a tonne, remember, that was set in '23 in real terms. But as those projects come in, those four replacement mines and the system has additional flex to it, we will see that productivity really start to come through, and that's why we remain very comfortable with that as the mid-term target.

我認為團隊做得很好，但西澳大利亞市場仍然存在很大的通貨膨脹，我們必須在前進的過程中抵消。因此，此指引的中間值是年增 3%。我認為，說到每噸 20 美元，請記住，這是 1923 年以實際價格設定的。但隨著這些項目的實施，這四個替代礦山和系統具有額外的靈活性，我們將看到生產力真正開始提高，這就是為什麼我們仍然非常放心地將其作為中期目標。

Thanks, Peter. and the second one's just on this impairment on the double digestion on the increased capital cost. I'm just wondering how that impacts your decarbonization targets, progress, and such like. Can you just -- or if not -- or if it doesn't at all, can you just explain a little bit about what's going on there?

謝謝，彼得。第二個只是關於增加資本成本的雙重消化造成的減損。我只是想知道這對你的脫碳目標、進展等有何影響。您能否——或者如果不能——或者根本沒有，您能否稍微解釋一下那裡發生了什麼？

Obviously, right into the back page of the report, so well done. But no, absolutely, it's taken impairment on QAL because what we found is we've done more work around that double digestion project that the scope of it has increased and the CapEx is higher. And so we've taken down the value of those assets by about half a billion dollars as a result.

顯然，報告的背面就是這樣，做得很好。但絕對不是，它對 QAL 產生了損害，因為我們發現我們圍繞雙重消化項目做了更多工作，其範圍擴大了，資本支出也更高了。因此，我們導致這些資產的價值下降了約 5 億美元。

I mean, we remain sort of very much committed to the program. I mean, you've got to think of our business as an integrated business there of the bauxite mines in Weipa, the aluminum refineries supplying the rest of the smelting system. And the system value is there, and we've got to decarbonize that system. So the double digestion remains a sort of positive project. Even if the capital we are now estimating is higher, it remains a positive sort of value project. And so we're continuing the studies to try and make it happen.

我的意思是，我們仍然非常致力於這個計劃。我的意思是，你必須將我們的業務視為韋帕鋁土礦礦山和為冶煉系統其餘部分提供供應的鋁精煉廠的綜合業務。系統價值就在那裡，我們必須使該系統脫碳。因此雙重消化仍然是一種積極的項目。即使我們現在估計的資本較高，它仍然是一種具有正面價值的項目。因此我們正在繼續研究並嘗試實現這一目標。

Okay. Thanks, Peter.

好的。謝謝，彼得。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的克里斯·拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

Thanks, Operator. Hi, Jakob. Hi, Peter. Thanks for taking my questions. So Jakob, being that you're in the United States right now, I wanted to ask about the 45X Critical Mineral Tax Credit that you could get, at the very least, at Kennecott and maybe even as a benefit at resolution. I'm wondering, A, what you're hearing about that; and then B, if that does indeed become a reality, do you get the credit on only the operating costs for existing mines, or would it also help you on the CapEx resolution, assuming that gets green-lighted at some point?

謝謝，接線生。你好，雅各。你好，彼得。感謝您回答我的問題。所以雅各布，既然你現在在美國，我想問一下你至少可以在肯尼科特獲得 45 倍關鍵礦產稅收抵免的情況，甚至可能在解決時獲得一項福利。我很好奇，A，你聽到了什麼？然後 B，如果這確實成為現實，您是否只獲得現有礦山運營成本的抵免，或者它是否也有助於解決資本支出問題（假設在某個時候獲得批准）？

Wow. Just help me here. The credit you're talking about is related to critical minerals, but that's related for comments from the previous government, isn't it?

哇。就在這裡幫我吧。您所說的信貸與關鍵礦產有關，但這與前政府的評論有關，不是嗎？

No. The Trump administration and Congress are considering declaring copper a critical mineral. And if it becomes a critical mineral, as per Congress, copper producers in the US will get a 10% direct credit from the US government. So Freeport said it would be $500 million a year for Freeport from its US operations, and that's just 10% of their operating costs, which they effectively get reimbursed for. So I'd assume, at Kennecott, you'd be eligible for that in that resolution as well.

不。川普政府和國會正在考慮將銅宣佈為關鍵礦物。如果它成為一種關鍵礦物，根據國會的規定，美國的銅生產商將從美國政府獲得 10% 的直接信貸。因此，自由港表示，其美國業務每年將為自由港帶來 5 億美元的收入，而這僅佔其營運成本的 10%，他們實際上已經獲得了補償。因此，我認為，在肯尼科特 (Kennecott)，您也有資格在該決議中獲得該資格。

No, but you're right. I just don't think we know all the equations yet, because it is one common from the new government, but it's based upon a system from the previous government. But what I was trying to say earlier in the call is that there will be pluses and minuses, and all the production we have in the US are unlikely to be worse off and likely to be better off. But I really think it's too early to conclude anything. But I would say, today, I'm quite happy of having a smelter -- a copper smelter in the US, even though it hasn't been very profitable for quite a long time.

不，但是你是對的。我只是認為我們還不知道所有的方程式，因為它是新政府的共同方程式，但它是基於上一屆政府的系統。但我在早些時候的通話中試圖說的是，這會有好處也有壞處，我們在美國所有的生產都不太可能變得更糟，而且可能會變得更好。但我確實認為現在下結論還為時過早。但我想說，今天，我很高興擁有一座冶煉廠——一座位於美國的銅冶煉廠，儘管它在很長一段時間內都沒有帶來太多的利潤。

Thanks for that. And secondly, just on the comment you made earlier about how tariffs on aluminum are kind of raised across the board globally. It would be a net neutral for you. But isn't it the case that the aluminum production in Canada that you're exporting to the US now is excluded from prior tariffs, whereas in this case you might be on a 25% tariff just like everybody else? So some of the advantage that you have in Canada will go away and your margins might be compressed a little bit, or am I thinking about that wrong?

謝謝。其次，關於您之前提到的全球範圍內鋁關稅的全面上調。這對你來說是一個網路中立的。但情況是否如此：您現在出口到美國的加拿大鋁產品不受先前關稅的約束，而在這種情況下，您可能和其他人一樣要繳納 25% 的關稅？那麼，你們在加拿大的一些優勢將會消失，你們的利潤率可能會受到一點壓縮，還是我的想法錯了？

No, no, that's a very fair point. Now it's only 10%, but we have the Section 232 exemption that was negotiated under the first Trump government. But everything is up in the air. We don't know where it will land, but you're right. At that stage, that gave a favorable position to our Canadian smelters.

不，不，這是一個非常公平的觀點。現在只有 10%，但我們有川普第一屆政府談判達成的第 232 條豁免。但一切都還不確定。我們不知道它會降落在哪裡，但你是對的。在那個階段，這為我們的加拿大冶煉廠帶來了有利地位。

Thank you. Good luck. Cheers.

謝謝。祝你好運。乾杯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Liam Fitzpatrick, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的利亞姆·菲茨帕特里克。

Hi Jakob and Peter. I've got one question and then one follow up. So firstly, just on the Chinalco stake, Jakob, you said in December at the C&D that resolving this constraint on potential PLC buyback is a priority of yours. Are you hopeful of making any progress this year?

你好，Jakob 和 Peter。我有一個問題，還有一個後續問題。首先，關於中鋁股份，雅各布，您在 12 月的 C&D 會議上表示，解決這一對潛在 PLC 回購的限制是您的首要任務。您希望今年有任何進展嗎？

Yes, but I don't have any progress to tell you about today. It's not a lot of time since December, so please be a bit patient, but I'm completely committed to what I said. I cannot promise it, but I'll do my best.

是的，但是我今天還沒有任何進展可以告訴你。從十二月到現在，時間並不多，所以請大家耐心一點，但我完全會遵守我所說的話。我無法保證，但我會盡力。

Okay, thank you. And then the follow-up is on a question on strategy and portfolio. As you've outlined, a big part of the strategy is to rebalance the portfolio. As the Mitsui transaction has shown us, there are some companies out there that are going to put a much higher value on your on your Pilbara business than the market will. So have you and the management team ever considered monetizing part of the Pilbara through minority stakes sell-downs or something similar as a way of accelerating the shift in the portfolio?

好的，謝謝。然後後續問題是關於策略和投資組合的問題。正如您所概述的，該策略的很大一部分是重新平衡投資組合。正如三井交易向我們表明的那樣，有些公司對你皮爾巴拉業務的估值要比市場高得多。那麼您和管理團隊是否曾考慮過透過出售少數股權或類似方式將皮爾巴拉的部分資產貨幣化，以加速投資組合的轉變？

Yes, that's something I would find very, very difficult to do. We are the world's largest producer of iron ore. We have optionality second to none with IOC, Simandou kicking in, and a system that actually can make choices in the Pilbara on its product strategy that other producers might find difficult. So selling down would be a really bad strategy. Then, otherwise, you should just sell the whole stuff, in my view. I was sending your comment because Paul Young made the same comment back to you guys. I think it's you guys who has to look at what is the real value of our iron ore business. You got a very clear signal today from Mitsui.

是的，我發現這是一件非常非常困難的事。我們是世界上最大的鐵礦石生產商。在 IOC、西芒杜的參與下，我們擁有無與倫比的選擇性，而且該系統實際上可以在皮爾巴拉地區選擇其他生產商可能會覺得困難的產品策略。因此，減持是一個非常糟糕的策略。那麼，否則，在我看來，你應該把所有東西都賣掉。我發送您的評論是因為 Paul Young 也向您發表了同樣的評論。我認為你們應該考慮一下我們的鐵礦石業務的真正價值。今天三井發出了一個非常明確的訊號。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

瑞銀的 Lachlan Shaw。

Hi, Peter and team. Thanks very much for your time. Two questions from me. Maybe to start off and just to sort of circle back on the iron ore cost curve and costs in general, maybe stepping back a little bit, what's the view at the moment in terms of how the cost curve more generally for the industry might be expected to trend in the next sort of one, two, three years? And I'll come back with my second question in a second.

嗨，彼得和團隊。非常感謝您抽出時間。我有兩個問題。首先，讓我們回顧一下鐵礦石成本曲線和整體成本，稍微回顧一下，目前對於整個產業成本曲線在未來一、二、三年內可能呈現何種趨勢的看法是什麼？我馬上就會回來回答我的第二個問題。

Lachlan, I think we saw a major period of inflation come through the system. I think that is clearly coming off now. I think some are dealing with that better than others, and I think we talked to what we're doing in our system. But I wouldn't expect the same sort of change to the overall cost structure of the industry over the next two years. I mean, clearly that's dependent on exactly how demand evolves. But as we looked at the last many years, you can see China being very stable and incremental growth elsewhere for steel and thus iron ore. So we're not posting any major change to the structure for the next few years.

拉克蘭，我認為我們已經看到了系統內通貨膨脹的嚴重時期。我認為現在這一點顯然已經顯現出來了。我認為有些人處理得比其他人好，而且我認為我們已經討論了我們系統中所做的事情。但我預計未來兩年內該產業的整體成本結構不會發生同樣的變化。我的意思是，這顯然取決於需求的具體發展方式。但回顧過去幾年，我們可以看到中國鋼鐵和鐵礦石產量非常穩定，且呈現增量成長。因此，未來幾年我們不會對結構做出任何重大改變。

Understood. That's helpful. Thank you. And then my second question is just on I guess organic versus inorganic growth. And I had observed that you've got a fairly full program of organic growth underway over the coming years. You're soon to complete on Arcadium and what will come there. How do you think about the capacity in the business for the potential inorganic growth? Thank you.

明白了。這很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於有機成長與無機成長。而且我觀察到，未來幾年你們已經制定了一個相當完整的有機成長計畫。您很快就能完成 Arcadium 及其後續內容。您如何看待該業務潛在的無機成長能力？謝謝。

Yes, thank you. The answer is, always, it depends. And some deals make sense and some deals make no sense. What I feel passionate about, and this is why I'm so pleased that we have been able over the last few years to go from having a Rio Tinto that had a declining production towards growth is that we got so many great technical people. I think it's my job for the benefit of the shareholders to make sure they are being kept as busy as possible, but not to break over.

是的，謝謝。答案始終是，視情況而定。有些交易有意義，有些交易沒有意義。我對此充滿熱情，這也是為什麼我很高興我們在過去幾年中能夠從力拓的產量下滑走向成長，因為我們擁有如此多的優秀技術人員。我認為我的工作是為股東謀福利，確保他們盡可能忙碌，但不會讓他們超負荷工作。

You guys talk a lot about CapEx and -- sorry, capital and capital allocation. And as you know, I've been a CFO for many years. That's very important. But actually, the most important constraining factors is what are your technical competences? And I think we have now shown that we are able to to deliver projects on time, on budget. We have improved significantly after we created our global project organization. And when you have those capabilities, you want to use them at max. And I think that's what we're doing right now.

你們談了很多關於資本支出和——抱歉，資本和資本配置的問題。如你所知，我已擔任財務長多年。這非常重要。但其實最重要的限制因素是你的技術能力是什麼？我認為我們現在已經證明我們能夠按時、按預算完成專案。在我們創建全球專案組織之後，我們取得了顯著的進步。當你擁有這些能力時，你會想最大限度地利用它們。我認為這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

That's why I'm so happy about our growth journey. And we are capable to take over Arcadium and help them execute projects as well. But we are running at, I wouldn't say, full capacity, but close to. And that means that I don't have much desire to add more things into it. But I mean, at the end of the day, you can never say never because it's not that taking over Arcadium is just us who has to deliver. We're actually getting a lot of capabilities in Arcadium. So you could say the combined entity of Rio Tinto and Arcadium will be having more execution capabilities than before. So that's the kind of constraining factor.

這就是為什麼我對我們的成長歷程感到如此高興。我們有能力接管Arcadium並幫助他們執行專案。但是，我不能說我們已經滿載運轉，但已經接近滿載了。這意味著我沒有太多興趣添加更多的東西。但我的意思是，到最後你永遠不能說永遠，因為接管 Arcadium 並不僅僅是我們必須完成的任務。我們實際上在 Arcadium 中獲得了很多功能。因此可以說，力拓和 Arcadium 合併後的實體將比以前擁有更強大的執行能力。這是一種限制因素。

But the most important point I want to make between organic and inorganic is that we are just really lucky as a management team here in Rio Tinto. We have received from our predecessors many, many years back a cupboard full of opportunities. We just talked about maybe we could at some stage focus something like resolution. And it goes without saying it's our responsibility to first look at the options that we have for free before we go out and spend an awful lot of money to get something else. Thank you.

但我想說的關於有機和無機的最重要的一點是，作為力拓的管理團隊，我們真的很幸運。許多年前，我們的前輩就給了我們無限的機會。我們剛才談到，也許我們可以在某個階段關註一些諸如解決方案之類的事情。毋庸置疑，在我們出去花大筆錢購買其他東西之前，我們有責任先了解我們可以免費獲得的選項。謝謝。

Alain Gabriel, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿蘭·加布里埃爾（Alain Gabriel）。

Thank you for taking my question. I have one question and a follow up. The first question, since we were talking about resolution, how do you see the roadmap for the project from here under the new US administration? That's my first question. Thanks.

感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個問題和一個後續問題。第一個問題，既然我們在談論解決方案，您如何看待新美國政府領導下該計畫的路線圖？這是我的第一個問題。謝謝。

Yes. Look, right now, we are waiting on the Supreme Court that hopefully will not take the case. We have won the case in four courtrooms now. Every time it has been in the courtroom, we have won the case. And if they're deciding not to take the case, then it's back to the administration. And now there's a new administration, and the previous Trump administration did approve the land swap.

是的。你看，現在，我們正在等待最高法院的判決，希望它不會接受此案。目前我們已經在四個法庭上贏得了此案。每次在法庭上，我們都贏得勝利。如果他們決定不受理此案，那麼一切責任都回到政府手中。現在有了新政府，之前的川普政府確實批准了土地交換。

The next step is to get the land swap to happen because then we can do the final drilling, we can learn the full size of the ore body, and from there design the best possible project while we, in parallel, are making consultations with all the tribes that have connections to the land. And I would say that area is actually progressing very well. So I'm optimistic, but it's still a long journey. And first copper is not the next couple of years. It's somewhat further out. But don't forget, it's a copper mine that can produce 500,000 tonnes for a long period of time.

下一步是實現土地交換，因為這樣我們就可以進行最後的鑽探，了解礦體的完整規模，並從中設計出最佳的項目，同時我們還可以與所有與這片土地有聯繫的部落進行協商。我想說該領域實際上進展得非常好。所以我很樂觀，但這仍然是一條漫長的路。而且第一批銅礦不是在未來幾年開採的。稍微遠一點。但別忘了，這是一座可以長期產出50萬噸的銅礦。

Thanks, and the follow up is on -- can you give us an update on your discussions with Entrée Resources with respect to their JV with OT? What are the next milestones from here and your discussions with them, and what are the implications, or are there any implications or any delays in reaching an agreement? What are the implications for the mine plan? Thank you.

謝謝，接下來的問題是——您能否向我們介紹一下您與 Entrée Resources 就其與 OT 的合資事宜進行的討論的最新進展？下一步的里程碑是什麼？這對於礦山計劃有何影響？謝謝。

Yes, so far there is not -- but it would be nice to get that part solved in the not-too-distant future. My focus is, and we are working closely with the Mongolian government, to solve the tax dispute we have there. I mean, that would be my first priority. If you solve that, it's much easier to solve the entry as well.

是的，目前還沒有——但如果能在不久的將來解決這個問題就好了。我的重點是，我們正在與蒙古政府密切合作，以解決那裡的稅收爭端。我的意思是，那將是我的首要任務。如果你解決了這個問題，那麼解決這個問題就容易多了。

But we have really good progress, and I feel that we are working in good lockstep with the government on a project that now is focusing so successfully. When things are going well, it's always easier to solve issues. So that's my philosophy. I would, of course, rather like today than tomorrow, but I think we're getting closer to solve those two issues. Thank you.

但我們確實取得了很好的進展，而且我感覺我們正與政府步調一致地合作完成這個項目，目前該項目的重點非常成功。當事情進展順利時，解決問題總是比較容易。這就是我的哲學。當然，我更希望今天而不是明天，但我認為我們正在接近解決這兩個問題。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dominic O'Kane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的多明尼克‧奧凱恩 (Dominic O’Kane)。

Hi, guys. Actually, my questions have all been asked, so thank you. Thanks for the time.

嗨，大家好。其實我的問題都問完了，謝謝大家。感謝您的時間。

Excellent, an analyst who runs out of questions. That's fantastic, Dominic. Thanks.

太棒了，一個沒有問題了的分析師。太棒了，多明尼克。謝謝。

Kaan Peker, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）的 Kaan Peker。

Good morning, Jakob and Peter. Thanks for the update. Two questions for me. Firstly, can I ask about the future of TI2 in Canada? I appreciate that you mentioned tariffs will impact the economics of the Canadian assets, and there are a number of furnaces at RTIT that are on care and maintenance. And I'll circle back in a second.

早上好，雅各和彼得。感謝您的更新。我有兩個問題。首先，我可以問一下 TI2 在加拿大的未來嗎？我很欣賞您提到關稅將影響加拿大資產的經濟效益，而且RTIT 有許多熔爐需要維護和保養。我馬上就回來。

Yes, it's an excellent question. What I see that the team is doing is great focus on improving its cost position. It's probably the place in Rio Tinto where we have most focus on the cost efficiency. But there has been a lot of shifts in the market, and we need to adjust towards where the customers are and to the market. And right now there is some uncertainty with regards to tariffs. But don't forget, Sorel is not only producing titanium slag, it's producing scandium.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我看到該團隊正在高度重視改善其成本狀況。這可能是力拓最注重成本效率的地方。但市場發生了許多變化，我們需要根據客戶和市場情況進行調整。目前關稅方面存在一些不確定性。但別忘了，Sorel 不僅生產鈦渣，還生產鈧。

We are trying to start producing titanium metals as well, all very, very critical minerals that has great interest by the US. So I think these things need to be seen in totality. But it's clear that the tariffs brings more uncertainty to our titanium business than our aluminum business in relatively speaking terms. So let the dust settle a little bit on the tariff side, and then I can give you a better answer on the utilization of the Sorel plant, which I guess is the core of your question, but it does depend on where we land on tariffs.

我們也正嘗試開始生產鈦金屬，這些都是非常非常重要的礦物，美國對此非常感興趣。所以我認為這些事情需要全面地看待。但很明顯，相對而言，關稅為我們的鈦業務帶來的不確定性比鋁業務更大。因此，讓我們在關稅方面稍微平息一下，然後我可以就 Sorel 工廠的利用率給你一個更好的答案，我想這是你問題的核心，但這確實取決於我們的關稅立場。

Thank you. I understand guidance was maintained, but do you have an update on East Intercourse Island remediation work and the time for the port to get back to name plate? I think the initial assessment was three to four weeks. Has there been any changes to that? Thanks.

謝謝。我知道指導意見已經維持，但您是否有關於東通道島修復工作以及港口恢復原狀的時間的最新消息？我認為初步評估需要三到四週。這件事現在有什麼改變嗎？謝謝。

No, it's still the same. It's actually heroic work. Just so we're clear, we understand the things with the number. It's not a problem that a number is getting flooded. But this number was put in place around 1970, and we have never had so much rainfall in one hour. And the sad thing in this case was that the flooding was so high up that it took the whole electrical installation. And that actually have kept our suppliers on working overtime to give us new electrification kits in place.

不，還是一樣。這確實是一項英雄事蹟。為了讓我們知道清楚，我們了解與數字相關的事情。號碼被淹沒不是一個問題。但這個數字是在1970年左右制定的，我們從來沒有在一小時內出現過如此大的降雨。這次事件中最悲傷的是，洪水淹沒了整個電力裝置。這實際上迫使我們的供應商加班加點地為我們提供新的電氣化套件。

And so it's all about getting that stuff to the Pilbara and quickly installing it. It's actually quite impressive that it was possible to do within that timeframe. But obviously, it's disappointing that we have to have them down for such a long time. It is the impact of climate change, I'm afraid to say. It's a good learning for us, and it's a good test for us to go around and look at things. Flooding is one thing, but destroying your electrical installation is something else.

所以一切都是為了把這些東西運到皮爾巴拉并快速安裝。在這麼短的時間內完成這件事確實令人印象深刻。但顯然，我們必須讓它們停駛這麼長時間，這令人失望。我很遺憾地說這是氣候變遷的影響。這對我們來說是一個很好的學習，四處走走看看事物也是一個很好的考驗。洪水是一回事，但破壞電力設施又是另一回事。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Amos Fletcher, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿莫斯·弗萊徹。

Good afternoon, guys. Just a couple of questions. I wanted to ask, in light of the story about the approach from Glencore, which appeared to have been taken quite seriously by the Rio Board, what should we read into that in terms of strategy and whether you're prepared to go back into coal, for example?

大家下午好。僅有幾個問題。我想問一下，鑑於嘉能可的做法似乎得到了力拓董事會的認真對待，我們應該從戰略角度如何解讀這一點，以及你們是否準備重返煤炭行業？

I don't know where you have this thing about the Board. I cannot comment on rumors. It's entirely a rumor, so I'm afraid I can't comment on that. But you're right. We left coal just before I joined the company in '18, and we have had no plans for going into coal again.

我不知道您從哪裡得到有關董事會的資訊。我無法對謠言發表評論。這完全是謠言，所以恐怕我無法對此發表評論。但你是對的。在我於 18 年加入公司之前，我們就已經停止了煤炭業務，而且我們也沒有計劃再次進軍煤炭行業。

Okay. And then just, I guess, a follow up on that is, I don't know, just to ask the question on the DLC structure. As you look at large-scale consolidation options in the industry, does it make you think more positively about the merits of dissolving or unifying the DLC?

好的。然後，我想，接下來的問題是，我不知道，只是問一下關於 DLC 結構的問題。當您考慮行業中的大規模整合選項時，您是否會更積極地考慮解散或統一 DLC 的優點？

Not really. We can certainly use script with the DLC. And funnily enough, Peter reminded me we actually have done that, but I think it's back to year 2000 where we have used script when we took when we took Comalco private. So that's really not an argument. We will, in a couple of hours, announce our invitation to the AGM. And there will be a resolution there that is requested by Palliser. And there will be the Board's response to their resolution. So if you don't mind, I'd like to refer to that. You will have it in, I think, one or two hours.

並不真地。我們當然可以將腳本與 DLC 一起使用。有趣的是，彼得提醒我，我們實際上已經這樣做了，但我認為這可以追溯到 2000 年，當時我們在將 Comalco 私有化時使用了腳本。所以這其實不是一個爭論。幾個小時後，我們將宣布參加年度股東大會的邀請。那裡將會有一個 Palliser 所要求的解決方案。董事會也會對他們的決議作出回應。所以如果您不介意的話，我想參考一下。我想，一兩個小時之內您就能收到它。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Myles Allsop, UBS.

瑞銀的邁爾斯·阿爾索普（Myles Allsop）

Great, thank you. Quickly on Simandou, you talk about this 30-month ramp up. Could you give us a bit more clarity on the shape of that? So if we're thinking about both Blocks 1, 2, and 3 for the system as a whole, should we take a straight line in this 40, 80, 120 broadly over the three-year period, or will it be more clunky?

太好了，謝謝。關於西芒杜，您很快就談到了這 30 個月的成長。您能否向我們更清楚地說明其形狀？因此，如果我們考慮整個系統的 1、2 和 3 區塊，我們是否應該在三年內大致沿著這 40、80、120 的直線走，還是會更加笨重？

Time will tell, but it goes without saying that the two consortia share the infrastructure. For example, we tend to be in Block 3 and 4, and we wouldn't mind -- we wouldn't like to see Block 1 and 2 take the capacity in front of us. I think we will all try to note from that side, but we do need to get a reliable system, and that takes time to load up. I'm not able to offer you anything better than a straight line at this point in time without promising you that it is a straight line.

時間會證明一切，但不言而喻的是，這兩個財團共享基礎設施。例如，我們傾向於選擇 3 號和 4 號區塊，我們不會介意——我們不希望看到 1 號和 2 號區塊佔用我們前面的容量。我認為我們都會嘗試從這個方面來注意，但我們確實需要建立一個可靠的系統，而這需要時間來載入。我現在無法向您提供任何比直線更好的東西，除非我保證它是一條直線。

Okay, thanks. So maybe just a very last question back on the DLC, and maybe this is in the Board's response. It seems like the big difference is in the cost, and you've been quite clear that you see it at about $5 billion of cost. And obviously, Palliser has a very different view. Could you just give us a sense of how you build up to that $5 billion or probably the audit that was done quite recently, I think?

好的，謝謝。所以這可能只是關於 DLC 的最後一個問題，也許這是董事會的回應。看起來最大的差異在於成本，而且您已經明確表示成本約為 50 億美元。顯然，帕利瑟有著截然不同的看法。您能否向我們介紹一下這 50 億美元的資金是如何累積起來的，或者可能是最近進行的審計？

No, I don't think it's in the interest of the shareholders that we go into what kind of tax exposure there could be from that. That is crystal clear, not in the interest of the shareholders. But that's only one side of the equation. You have to sit yourself and think, how on earth can you do this and never get your Australian shareholders to pay a premium for taking out the PLC shareholders? So it's quite an undoable transaction.

不，我認為討論這可能帶來的稅務風險不符合股東的利益。這很明顯不符合股東的利益。但這只是等式的一邊。你必須坐下來想一想，你究竟要怎麼做才能做到這一點，而又不讓你的澳洲股東為收購 PLC 股東支付溢價？因此這是一筆無法完成的交易。

Okay, thanks, and safe traveling.

好的，謝謝，祝旅途愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I will now hand the call back to Rachel for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我會把電話交還給 Rachel，請她作結束語。

Thank you so much for joining us today. If you do have further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the IR team. So we wish you a good rest of the day wherever you are dialing in from today. Thank you very much and goodbye.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊。因此，無論您今天撥打什麼號碼，我們都祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快。非常感謝，再見。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。