皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該度假村將設有水上樂園、賭場和豪華住宿設施。該公司還計劃在邁阿密港建造一個新碼頭。世界加勒比集團宣布了他們的 Trifecta 計劃,該計劃具有三個主要目標:將每 APCD 的 EBITDA 盈利能力提高到三位數,實現兩位數的收益,並實現團隊投資資本的回報。該公司計劃到 2025 年實現這些目標,並將其資產負債表恢復到投資級別。與 2019 年相比,他們還計劃將碳強度降低兩位數。

該公司計劃通過擴大船舶和船上服務來發展業務。他們相信,通過這樣做,他們將能夠提高同類產品的產量並繼續發展他們的業務。該公司計劃提高對其產品的認識並改進其忠誠度計劃,以縮小與陸上度假選擇的差距。該公司正在努力減輕通貨膨脹的影響並提高利潤率。該公司還在增加產能,預計這將有助於隨著時間的推移提高效率。

該公司第三季度的強勁表現是由於對其產品和服務的高需求、高效的船上收入產生以及積極的收益率趨勢。該公司希望通過擴大機隊並專注於北美航線來提高盈利能力。這種對財務業績和可持續性的關注使公司能夠很好地實現其對 2023 年創紀錄收益率和創紀錄調整後 EBITDA 的預期。嘉年華公司是世界上最大的郵輪公司,擁有 10 多個郵輪品牌的 130 多艘船的聯合船隊。該公司在北美、歐洲、澳大利亞和亞洲開展業務,在全球擁有 500 多家旅行社。

2020 年第三季度,嘉年華公司 95% 以上的總預訂量是新遊輪,而不是未來游輪積分 (FCC)。 FCC 是客人可以兌換未來游輪的積分,它們今年對公司的 APD(平均每日支出)產生了約 1% 的影響。 Carnival 預計明年 FCC 的影響會更小。該公司不到 20% 的客戶存款餘額與 FCC 相關。

與 2020 年第二季度相比,嘉年華公司在 2020 年第三季度的每 APCD(平均每天花費)的淨郵輪成本(不包括燃料)比 2020 年第二季度提高了 11%。該季度的淨郵輪成本還包括每 APCD 3.37 美元的臨時成本與健康協議和與車隊增加有關的一次性滯後成本有關。該公司預計在 2020 年第四季度將產生暫時性成本,但隨著公司接近滿員和滿員配備水平,並調整其協議,預計這些成本將顯著降低。

嘉年華公司正在積極應對通脹壓力,對公司而言,通脹壓力主要與燃料和食品成本有關。該公司的團隊一直能夠減少大約 1/3 的市場增長,同時實現高 NPS(淨推薦值)得分。嘉年華公司將繼續監測通脹週期,並在進入 2023 年時專注於緩解策略。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Royal Caribbean Group Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    早上好,歡迎來到皇家加勒比集團 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael McCarthy, Vice President, Investor Relations.

    我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Michael McCarthy。

  • Michael McCarthy - VP of IR

    Michael McCarthy - VP of IR

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2022 Business Update Conference Call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bailey, President and CEO of World Caribbean International.

    大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們的 2022 年第三季度業務更新電話會議。我們的首席執行官 Jason Liberty 和我一起來到邁阿密。 Naftali Holtz,我們的首席財務官;和世界加勒比國際總裁兼首席執行官邁克爾·貝利。

  • Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change.

    在我們開始之前,我想指出,我們將在這次電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期,並受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。有關這些因素的描述,請參閱我們今天上午發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。

  • Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our website and in our earnings release available at www.rclinvestor.com.

    此外,我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標按定義進行調整,所有非 GAAP 項目的對賬可以在我們的網站和我們的收益發布中找到,網址為 www.rclinvestor.com。

  • Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our third quarter results, and an update on our latest actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions. But first, we will start the call with a video highlighting and introducing our trifecta program.

    Jason 將通過提供戰略概述和業務更新來開始電話會議。 Naftali 將回顧我們的第三季度業績,並更新我們的最新行動和當前預訂環境。然後,我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。但首先,我們將以視頻突出顯示並介紹我們的三重奏計劃開始通話。

  • (presentation)

    (介紹)

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Over the past several months, our teams have been very busy and focused on generating strong quality demand combating inflation and most of all, delivering the best vacations in the world as we return our business closer to historical load factors while maintaining price integrity and generating $3 billion in revenue and almost $750 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter.

    謝謝你,邁克爾,大家早上好。在過去的幾個月裡,我們的團隊一直非常忙碌,專注於產生強勁的質量需求來對抗通貨膨脹,最重要的是,在我們將業務恢復到更接近歷史載客率的同時提供世界上最好的假期,同時保持價格完整性並產生 3 美元第三季度的收入為 10 億美元,調整後的 EBITDA 接近 7.5 億美元。

  • As you have seen in our announcement this morning, we have announced a 3-year financial performance program that we have termed Project Trifecta.

    正如您在今天上午的公告中看到的那樣,我們宣布了一項為期 3 年的財務績效計劃,我們稱之為 Project Trifecta。

  • Now before getting into the details of the program, let's first talk about how the business is performing. As our third quarter results clearly demonstrate the strength of our vacation platform, which includes our leading global brands, the best and most innovative ships in the industry and a powerful and nimble commercial apparatus, coupled with strong execution by our operating teams have delivered another quarter of strong performance that exceeded our expectations. Our entire fleet is operating globally in our key destinations. Demand for our experiences was very strong, and we achieved 96% load factors overall, with the Caribbean at close to 105% at record pricing and high satisfaction scores.

    現在在進入程序的細節之前,讓我們先談談業務的執行情況。由於我們第三季度的業績清楚地展示了我們度假平台的實力,其中包括我們領先的全球品牌、業內最好和最具創新性的船舶以及強大而靈活的商業設備,再加上我們運營團隊的強大執行力,我們又交付了一個季度強勁的表現超出了我們的預期。我們的整個機隊在我們的主要目的地進行全球運營。對我們體驗的需求非常強勁,我們的載客率總體達到了 96%,加勒比地區接近 105%,價格創歷史新高,滿意度得分很高。

  • We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $742 million and positive earnings per share of $0.26, which was above our guidance. Our strong financial performance, coupled with proactive refinancing actions, further strengthened our already strong liquidity position and improved our debt maturity profile. I am thankful and proud of everyone at the World Caribbean Group for delivering the best vacation experiences to our customers in a responsible way, while executing so well on our recovery and building on our future. The successful return of our business to full operations and the accelerating demand environment positions us well to deliver on our expectations of record yields and record adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

    我們實現了 7.42 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 0.26 美元的正每股收益,高於我們的預期。我們強勁的財務表現,加上積極的再融資行動,進一步加強了我們本已強勁的流動性狀況,並改善了我們的債務到期狀況。我為 World Caribbean Group 的每個人表示感謝和自豪,他們以負責任的方式為我們的客戶提供最好的假期體驗,同時在我們的恢復和未來建設方面表現出色。我們的業務成功恢復全面運營和加速的需求環境使我們能夠很好地實現我們對 2023 年創紀錄的收益率和創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 的預期。

  • Next, let me elaborate on the Trifecta Program we announced this morning. With the operational return of our business well in hand, we are now focusing the team and our stakeholders on returning to record financial performance and beyond. The introduction of the Trifecta program provides us the coordinates we are looking to achieve over the next few years while delivering the best vacations in the world responsibly. Specifically, we are focused on achieving 3 metrics by 2025, growing EBITDA profitability per APCD to triple digits, delivering double-digit earnings and achieving a return on invested capital in the teams. We look to achieve these metrics while we return the balance sheet back to investment-grade profile and reduce our carbon intensity by double digits compared to 2019 as part of our commitment and focus on advancing the sustainability of our business.

    接下來,讓我詳細介紹一下我們今天早上宣布的 Trifecta 計劃。隨著我們業務的運營回報在手,我們現在將團隊和我們的利益相關者的注意力集中在恢復創紀錄的財務業績和超越。 Trifecta 計劃的推出為我們提供了我們希望在未來幾年內實現的坐標,同時負責任地提供世界上最好的假期。具體來說,我們的重點是到 2025 年實現 3 個指標,將每 APCD 的 EBITDA 盈利能力提高到三位數,實現兩位數的收益並實現團隊投資資本回報。作為我們承諾的一部分,我們希望實現這些指標,同時將資產負債表恢復到投資級別,並與 2019 年相比將碳強度降低兩位數,並專注於推進業務的可持續性。

  • Our formula for success is based on moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost discipline. For those who have followed us for some time, this will sound very familiar as we demonstrated in the past, it leads to strong financial performance and does not assume a perfect operating environment. Our plan is well grounded in a set of underlying strategies, robust secular and demographic trends, a strong culture and a powerful foundation of leading global brands, the most innovative fleet in the industry and the very best people. The main thrust of our plan is to take further advantage of our strong foundation and further orient our ecosystem around the customer by enhancing our commercial apparatus and product offerings.

    我們的成功公式基於適度的產能增長、適度的產量增長和嚴格的成本紀律。對於那些關注我們一段時間的人來說,這聽起來很熟悉,正如我們過去所展示的那樣,它帶來了強勁的財務業績,並且並不假設一個完美的運營環境。我們的計劃以一系列基本戰略、強勁的長期和人口趨勢、強大的文化和全球領先品牌的強大基礎、業內最具創新性的機隊和最優秀的人才為基礎。我們計劃的主要目標是進一步利用我們強大的基礎,並通過增強我們的商業設備和產品供應來進一步圍繞客戶定位我們的生態系統。

  • By doing this, we will further enhance customer preference, engagement, cruise frequency, guest experience and spend. This, combined with expanding our fleet through innovative new ships and land-based experiences like Perfect Day at CocoCay will drive our profitability growth and strong cash flow generation. Disciplined capital allocation to high returning investments will allow us to reduce leverage while investing in our future and delivering a strong shareholder value.

    通過這樣做,我們將進一步提高客戶偏好、參與度、郵輪頻率、客戶體驗和消費。這一點,再加上通過創新的新船和陸上體驗(如 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day)來擴大我們的船隊,將推動我們的盈利能力增長和強勁的現金流產生。對高回報投資進行有紀律的資本分配將使我們能夠降低杠桿率,同時投資於我們的未來並提供強大的股東價值。

  • Trifecta creates the pathway back to what we internally describe as base camp. However, base camp is not our final destination. Our ambitions go well beyond it. And while it may not always be a straight line and there may be some choppy waves from time to time, we are confident in our leading platform and ability to execute on our strategies to deliver those goals over the next few years.

    Trifecta 創建了返回我們內部描述為大本營的路徑。然而,大本營並不是我們的最終目的地。我們的野心遠不止於此。雖然它可能並不總是一條直線,並且可能不時出現一些波濤洶湧的波浪,但我們對我們領先的平台和執行我們在未來幾年實現這些目標的戰略的能力充滿信心。

  • Before going into the booking commentary, I wanted to share some of the behaviors that we are seeing from our guests. Global demand for travel is ramping up as consumers continue to shift spend to experiences. Well, this is good news to us as we are squarely in the experience business. The value proposition of cruise remains incredibly attractive. I would say, too attractive. Our full addressable market is back, and our brands are attracting new customers into our vacation ecosystem.

    在進入預訂評論之前,我想分享一些我們從客人那裡看到的行為。隨著消費者繼續將支出轉向體驗,全球對旅行的需求正在增加。嗯,這對我們來說是個好消息,因為我們正從事體驗業務。郵輪的價值主張仍然極具吸引力。我會說,太有吸引力了。我們完整的潛在市場又回來了,我們的品牌正在吸引新客戶進入我們的假期生態系統。

  • As a result, gas mix for the quarter was equally distributed across loyalty, new to cruise and new to our brand, similar to what we saw in 2019.

    因此,本季度的天然氣組合在忠誠度、郵輪新用戶和我們品牌的新用戶中平均分佈,類似於我們在 2019 年看到的情況。

  • Let me highlight some observations from our daily engagement with our customers. This quarter, we delivered 1.7 million amazing vacation experiences, and we have more than 130,000 guests sailing on our ships globally every day. The positioning of our brands attracts guests across broad demographics, psychographics and at a median household income above $100,000. This provides us a unique vantage point on what our guests are looking for in their behaviors.

    讓我強調一下我們與客戶的日常互動中的一些觀察。本季度,我們提供了 170 萬次令人驚嘆的假期體驗,每天有超過 130,000 名客人乘坐我們的船隻在全球航行。我們品牌的定位吸引了廣泛的人口統計、心理特徵和家庭收入中位數超過 100,000 美元的客人。這為我們提供了一個獨特的優勢來了解我們的客人在他們的行為中尋找什麼。

  • Overall, across markets, brands and products, we continue to see a financially healthy, highly engaged consumer with a strong hunger to dream and seek a variety of vacation experiences. Our commercial apparatus is seeing elevated booking activity across channels as we help our customers design their dream vacations. Our guests are willing to spend more than ever with us to create those memories.

    總體而言,在各個市場、品牌和產品中,我們繼續看到財務健康、高度參與的消費者對夢想和尋求各種度假體驗有著強烈的渴望。隨著我們幫助客戶設計他們夢想中的假期,我們的商業機構看到跨渠道的預訂活動有所增加。我們的客人比以往任何時候都願意花更多的錢與我們一起創造這些回憶。

  • Consumers are engaging earlier in the planning their vacation with about 60% purchasing onboard experiences before they even set sail. This has led to an 8-point increase in penetration and much higher revenue APD related to pre-cruise purchases versus 2019 levels. Our guests continue to seek the rich experiences we offer, spending significantly more on board our ships compared to 2019 across nearly all categories.

    大約 60% 的消費者甚至在啟航之前就已經購買了船上體驗,因此他們會更早地計劃他們的假期。與 2019 年的水平相比,這導致與遊輪前購買相關的滲透率增加了 8 個百分點和更高的 APD 收入。我們的客人繼續尋求我們提供的豐富體驗,與 2019 年相比,幾乎所有類別的船上消費都顯著增加。

  • All this is translating into strong booking activity. During the third quarter, we saw both strong demand for close-in sailings and accelerating demand for sailings in 2023.

    所有這些都轉化為強勁的預訂活動。在第三季度,我們看到了對近距離航行的強勁需求和對 2023 年航行的加速需求。

  • Next, let me talk a little bit more about the new ships that are planned to join our fleet next year. Our innovative new ships and onboard experiences will allow us to continue to differentiate our offering as well as deliver superior yields and margins.

    接下來,讓我再談談計劃明年加入我們艦隊的新船。我們創新的新船和船上體驗將使我們能夠繼續使我們的產品與眾不同,並提供卓越的產量和利潤。

  • Two weeks ago, we revealed details on our new and amazing Icon of the Seas, which will be delivered in late 2023 ahead of its January 2024 debut. It is a game-changing first of its kind vacation experience, where everyone can experience their version of the ultimate vacation.

    兩週前,我們公佈了令人驚嘆的全新海洋圖標的詳細信息,該圖標將於 2024 年 1 月首次亮相之前於 2023 年底交付。這是一種改變遊戲規則的首創假期體驗,每個人都可以體驗他們自己版本的終極假期。

  • Icon will have 8 distinct neighborhoods, each a destination in and of itself, packed with an array of amazing experiences. The ships state room configuration will allow for load factors to be accretive to the overall portfolio and the ship will be significantly accretive to our key financial metrics. The ship opened for sale about a week ago, and the market response was nothing short of remarkable. On the first day of bookings, we far surpassed our previous single-day booking record for the brand and the company overall, and it wasn't even close. With each new ship, we raise the bar in the travel industry while enhancing what our guests know and love.

    Icon 將有 8 個不同的街區,每個街區本身就是一個目的地,充滿了一系列令人驚嘆的體驗。船舶狀態室配置將允許負載係數增加整體投資組合,船舶將顯著增加我們的關鍵財務指標。這艘船大約在一周前開始銷售,市場反應非常出色。在預訂的第一天,我們就遠遠超過了我們之前的品牌和公司整體單日預訂記錄,甚至還沒有接近。通過每艘新船,我們提高了旅遊業的標準,同時增強了客人的了解和喜愛。

  • In addition to Icon, Celebrity set will join the Celebrity Fleet in the fourth quarter of 2023, and Silver Nova will join the Silversea fleet in late summer.

    除了 Icon,Celebrity set 將在 2023 年第四季度加入名人艦隊,Silver Nova 將在夏末加入 Silversea 艦隊。

  • In the coming days, we will open a brand-new flagship terminal in Galveston, Texas. The new terminal significantly expands our capacity in the region with the ability to accommodate the larger Oasis class ships and give us further access into the attractive drive 2 markets of Texas, Oklahoma and the entire Southeast region. The facility will also be the first cruise terminal to generate a 100% of its needed energy from on-site solar panels and will be the first Zero Energy cruise terminal facility in the world.

    未來幾天,我們將在德克薩斯州加爾維斯頓開設一個全新的旗艦航站樓。新碼頭顯著擴大了我們在該地區的能力,能夠容納更大的綠洲級船舶,並使我們能夠進一步進入德克薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州和整個東南地區具有吸引力的驅動 2 市場。該設施還將成為第一個 100% 使用現場太陽能電池板產生所需能源的郵輪碼頭,並將成為世界上第一個零能源郵輪碼頭設施。

  • While we are still early in our planning cycle, 2023 is shaping up to be a strong year for the company and a return to normal typical business. Our overall capacity will grow 14% compared to 2019 on account of 10 new ships, which have joined or will join the fleet across our brands during this period, net of dispositions. Our deployment across markets is relatively unchanged compared to 2019, with Caribbean representing just over half of our overall deployment. Europe at almost 20% and in Asia in the low single digits with no planned deployment in the high-yielding China market.

    雖然我們仍處於規劃週期的早期階段,但 2023 年將成為公司強勁的一年,並將恢復正常的典型業務。與 2019 年相比,我們的整體運力將增長 14%,因為在此期間有 10 艘新船已加入或將加入我們品牌的船隊,扣除處置後。與 2019 年相比,我們跨市場的部署相對沒有變化,加勒比海地區僅占我們整體部署的一半以上。歐洲接近 20%,亞洲低個位數,沒有計劃在高收益的中國市場部署。

  • About 80% of the population is within driving distance to a U.S. home port and we have upsized the short Caribbean product by 35% compared to 2019.

    大約 80% 的人口都在距離美國母港的車程範圍內,與 2019 年相比,我們已將短加勒比海產品的規模擴大了 35%。

  • Almost 65% of guests sailing on Royal Internationals Caribbean itineraries will experience Perfect day At CocoCay in 2023, up from 30% in 2019. We expect almost 80% of 2023 guest sourcing to come from North America as we continue to see particularly strong demand from that customer. Our global brands appeal and nimble sourcing model allow us to attract the highest yielding guests and partially mitigate the impact from the strong dollar.

    到 2023 年,幾乎 65% 的皇家國際加勒比航線的客人將在 CocoCay 體驗完美的一天,高於 2019 年的 30%。我們預計 2023 年近 80% 的客人採購將來自北美,因為我們繼續看到來自北美的特別強勁的需求那個客戶。我們的全球品牌吸引力和靈活的採購模式使我們能夠吸引最高收益的客人,並部分減輕強勢美元的影響。

  • While 2022 bookings remain strong and on pace to achieve occupancy's targets, the most notable change over the past few months has been a substantial acceleration in demand for 2023 sales. We received twice as many bookings for 2023 sailings in Q3 as we did in Q2, resulting in considerably higher booking volumes than during the same period for 2019 sailings.

    儘管 2022 年的預訂量依然強勁,並有望實現入住率目標,但過去幾個月最顯著的變化是對 2023 年的銷售需求大幅加速。我們在第三季度收到的 2023 次航行的預訂量是第二季度的兩倍,因此預訂量遠高於 2019 年同期的航行量。

  • As a result, all 4 quarters of 2023 are booked well within historical ranges at record prices with bookings accelerating every week. While the last 3 years were certainly challenging, the resiliency of our business allowed us to recover quickly and be fully back up and running. Our operating platform is larger and stronger than it has ever been with the best brands, best ships and best people. Our commercial capabilities allow us to reach more quality demand and our itineraries are strategically planned to appeal to both new-to-cruise and loyal customers.

    因此,2023 年的所有 4 個季度都以創紀錄的價格在歷史範圍內被預訂,預訂量每週都在加速。雖然過去 3 年確實充滿挑戰,但我們業務的彈性使我們能夠快速恢復並完全恢復正常運行。我們的運營平台比以往任何時候都更大、更強大,擁有最好的品牌、最好的船隻和最優秀的人才。我們的商業能力使我們能夠滿足更多質量需求,我們的行程經過戰略性規劃,以吸引新郵輪和忠實客戶。

  • The value proposition of cruising remains incredibly attractive, and we have an opportunity to close the gap to other land vacation alternatives as we grow our addressable market. We continue to expect the business to accelerate as we close out 2022 and set a strong foundation for us to deliver record yields and adjusted EBITDA in 2023.

    巡航的價值主張仍然非常有吸引力,隨著我們發展目標市場,我們有機會縮小與其他陸地度假選擇的差距。隨著我們在 2022 年結束,我們繼續預計業務將加速發展,並為我們在 2023 年實現創紀錄的收益率和調整後的 EBITDA 奠定堅實的基礎。

  • Our formula for success remains unchanged. As we have demonstrated in the past, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost controls lead to enhanced profitability and superior financial performance as we seek to improve the balance sheet.

    我們的成功公式保持不變。正如我們過去所證明的那樣,在我們尋求改善資產負債表時,適度的產能增長、適度的產量增長和強有力的成本控制可以提高盈利能力和卓越的財務業績。

  • The future of the Royal Caribbean Group is bright. With our strong platform and proven strategies, I'm confident in our recovery trajectory and our ability to deliver on the Trifecta program as well as reach new financial records.

    皇家加勒比集團的未來是光明的。憑藉我們強大的平台和經過驗證的策略,我對我們的複蘇軌跡以及我們交付 Trifecta 計劃以及達到新的財務記錄的能力充滿信心。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

    有了這個,我會把它交給納夫塔利。納夫?

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by discussing our results for the third quarter. This morning, we reported a net profit of approximately $60 million or $0.26 per share above the high end of our guidance range. Total revenue was just shy of $3 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $742 million. Third quarter outperformance was a result of continued strong demand for our brand's vacation experiences, especially after the easing of health protocols, continued strength of onboard revenue and better cost management. The successful ramp-up of our operations completed earlier this summer has positioned us well to return to generating consistent financial performance and recovering towards our record 2019 levels and beyond.

    謝謝你,傑森,大家早上好。讓我首先討論我們第三季度的業績。今天上午,我們報告的淨利潤約為 6000 萬美元或每股 0.26 美元,高於我們指導範圍的高端。總收入略低於 30 億美元,調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.42 億美元。第三季度的優異表現是由於對我們品牌度假體驗的持續強勁需求,尤其是在放鬆健康協議、船上收入持續強勁和成本管理改善之後。今年夏天早些時候我們成功地擴大了業務,使我們能夠很好地恢復產生一致的財務業績,並恢復到我們創紀錄的 2019 年及以後的水平。

  • We finished the third quarter at a 96% load factor with peak August sailings at close to 100%. Both factors varied by itinerary with Caribbean averaging close to 105%; Alaska at about 96% and Europe, as expected, at just under 90%.

    我們以 96% 的載客率結束第三季度,8 月的高峰期航行接近 100%。這兩個因素因行程而異,加勒比地區平均接近 105%;阿拉斯加約為 96%,而歐洲,正如預期的那樣,略低於 90%。

  • Also as expected, total revenue per passenger cruise day was up 1% in constant currency compared to the record third quarter of 2019. Strong demand for our brands and outperformance in onboard revenue mitigated the negative impact from FCC redemption and the lower-than-average load factors on higher-priced Europe and Alaska sailings.

    同樣如預期的那樣,按固定匯率計算,與 2019 年第三季度創紀錄的第三季度相比,每位乘客的總收入增長了 1%。對我們品牌的強勁需求和機上收入的出色表現緩解了 FCC 贖回和低於平均水平的負面影響價格較高的歐洲和阿拉斯加航行的載客率。

  • Our goal has always been to maximize our revenue yields as we optimize occupancy and pricing. With our ramp-up almost complete, we are nearing the point of full recovery to our record 2019 yields. Our constant currency yield improved by 8% in the third quarter, and we expect a similar improvement in the fourth quarter. We expect yields to continue ramping up in the first half of 2023 as we return to historical load factors in late spring.

    我們的目標一直是在優化入住率和定價的同時最大化我們的收益。隨著我們的增產幾乎完成,我們正接近完全恢復到 2019 年創紀錄的收益率。我們的固定貨幣收益率在第三季度提高了 8%,我們預計第四季度也會有類似的提高。隨著我們在春末恢復歷史載客率,我們預計收益率將在 2023 年上半年繼續上升。

  • Next, I will comment on capacity and load factor expectations over the upcoming period. We plan to operate about 11.7 million APCDs during the fourth quarter with load factors close to the third quarter.

    接下來,我將評論下一個時期的容量和負載率預期。我們計劃在第四季度運營約 1170 萬台 APCD,負載率接近第三季度。

  • Historically, our third quarter load factors have always been higher than the fourth quarter due to peak summer family travel. This year, as we are continuing to ramp up, we do not expect a decline in overall occupancy quarter-over-quarter.

    從歷史上看,由於夏季家庭旅行高峰,我們第三季度的載客率一直高於第四季度。今年,隨著我們繼續增加,我們預計整體入住率不會環比下降。

  • Let me break down fourth quarter load factors and capacity expectations a little more. During the quarter, our ships transitioned to their winter itineraries and as a result, 2/3 of our capacity is in North America. Our remaining capacity is mostly split between late season Europe, Australia and repositioning voyages. We expect Caribbean sailings to continue to sell at triple-digit load factors with slightly lower occupancies on late-season Europe sailings, which are just about 10% of capacity for the quarter. We are returning to Australia for the first time in 3 years, and as a result, expect to build to load factors in the low to mid-90s. We expect to return to overall historical occupancy level by late spring of 2023.

    讓我再細分一下第四季度的載客率和容量預期。在本季度,我們的船隻過渡到冬季航線,因此,我們 2/3 的運力在北美。我們剩餘的運力主要分佈在晚季歐洲、澳大利亞和重新定位航次之間。我們預計加勒比航線將繼續以三位數的載客率銷售,而歐洲晚季航線的入住率將略低,僅佔本季度運力的 10% 左右。我們將在 3 年內首次返回澳大利亞,因此,我們預計將在 90 年代中期至 90 年代中期建立負載係數。我們預計到 2023 年春末將恢復到整體歷史入住率水平。

  • Our customer deposit balance as of September 30 was $3.8 billion, which is about $400 million higher than our balance at the end of the third quarter in 2019.

    截至 9 月 30 日,我們的客戶存款餘額為 38 億美元,比 2019 年第三季度末的餘額高出約 4 億美元。

  • As we previously shared, now that the full fleet is in service and occupancy is ramping up, we are returning to a more typical seasonality in customer deposit levels. In 2019, our customer deposit balance declined by about $500 million between the end of Q2 and the end of Q3. The seasonal decrease was smaller this year as we continue to see stronger booking volumes.

    正如我們之前分享的那樣,現在整個車隊都在服役並且入住率正在增加,我們正在恢復客戶存款水平的更典型的季節性。 2019 年,我們的客戶存款餘額在第二季度末和第三季度末之間減少了約 5 億美元。今年的季節性下降幅度較小,因為我們繼續看到更強勁的預訂量。

  • In the third quarter, over 95% of total bookings were new versus future cruise credit redemptions. Guest sailing with FCCs impact our APDs by about 1% this year, and we expect the impact to be smaller next year. Less than 20% of our customer deposit balance is related to FCCs.

    在第三季度,超過 95% 的總預訂量是新的而不是未來的郵輪積分兌換。今年,乘坐 FCC 的客人對我們的 APD 的影響約為 1%,我們預計明年的影響會更小。我們客戶存款餘額中只有不到 20% 與 FCC 相關。

  • Shifting to costs. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD, improved 11% as reported and 10% in constant currency compared to the second quarter of '22. Net cruise costs for the quarter also included $3.37 per APCD of transitory costs related to health protocols and onetime lagging costs related to fleet ramp-up. We still expect to have transitory costs in the fourth quarter, but as we are nearing full occupancies and full crew staffing levels and are adapting our protocols, we expect them to significantly ease.

    轉向成本。與 22 年第二季度相比,淨巡航成本(不包括每 APCD 的燃料)按報告增長了 11%,按固定匯率計算增長了 10%。本季度的淨郵輪成本還包括每 APCD 3.37 美元的與健康協議相關的臨時成本和與船隊增加相關的一次性滯後成本。我們仍然預計第四季度會有暫時性成本,但隨著我們接近滿員和滿員配備水平並正在調整我們的協議,我們預計它們將顯著緩解。

  • Similar to other businesses around the world, we continue to actively manage inflationary pressures that, for us, mainly related to fuel and food costs. Our teams continue to demonstrate the ability to manage cost pressures while staying focused on our mission of delivering the incredible vacation experiences that are expected by our guests.

    與世界各地的其他業務類似,我們繼續積極應對通脹壓力,對我們而言,這主要與燃料和食品成本有關。我們的團隊繼續展示管理成本壓力的能力,同時專注於我們的使命,即提供客人所期望的令人難以置信的假期體驗。

  • In fact, year-to-date, we have consistently been able to abate about 1/3 of the market increases as we observed through benchmarks across various categories, all while achieving consistently high NPS scores. We will continue to both monitor the inflationary cycle as well as focus on mitigation strategies as we enter 2023.

    事實上,今年迄今為止,我們一直能夠減少大約 1/3 的市場增長,正如我們通過各種類別的基準所觀察到的那樣,同時實現了始終如一的高 NPS 分數。進入 2023 年,我們將繼續監測通脹週期,並專注於緩解策略。

  • Regarding fuel, we have seen fuel rates coming off the highs of earlier in the year, but they are still volatile. We continue to improve consumption and have partially hedged the rate, which is helping us mitigate the volatility and cost of fuel expense. As of today, fuel consumption is 64% hedged for the fourth quarter and 50% hedged for 2023.

    關於燃料,我們已經看到燃料價格從今年早些時候的高點回落,但它們仍然不穩定。我們繼續改善消費並部分對沖利率,這有助於我們減輕燃料費用的波動性和成本。截至今天,第四季度的油耗對沖率為 64%,2023 年的對沖率為 50%。

  • NCC, excluding fuel per APCD in the fourth quarter is expected to be higher by low to mid-single digits on a constant currency basis compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This includes a few percentage points of transitory costs related to protocols and ramp-up of operations.

    與 2019 年第四季度相比,按固定匯率計算,第四季度不包括每 APCD 的燃料在內的 NCC 預計將高出低至中個位數。這包括與協議和斜坡相關的幾個百分點的過渡成本-最多的操作。

  • Lower expenses related to returning ships and crew to operations and easing health protocols are supporting the improvement in costs.

    與使船舶和船員返回運營和放寬健康協議相關的較低費用正在支持成本的改善。

  • In addition, the benefits from actions taken during the pandemic to improve margins continue to materialize, and we expect them to ramp up in the fourth quarter and into 2023. We expect these actions to partially mitigate the inflationary pressures we expect to continue to weigh on our cost through the first half of '23.

    此外,在大流行期間為提高利潤率而採取的行動帶來的好處繼續顯現,我們預計它們將在第四季度和 2023 年增加。我們預計這些行動將部分緩解我們預計將繼續承壓的通脹壓力我們在 23 年上半年的成本。

  • Shifting to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in liquidity. Our liquidity position remains strong, and we are focused on expanding our margins to further enhance EBITDA and free cash flow. Our ultimate goal is to return the balance sheet to an investment-grade profile.

    轉移到我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度結束時擁有 31 億美元的流動性。我們的流動性狀況依然強勁,我們專注於擴大利潤率以進一步提高 EBITDA 和自由現金流。我們的最終目標是將資產負債表恢復到投資級別。

  • During the third quarter, we took multiple proactive actions to address $5.6 billion of 2022 and 2023 maturities. Since early August, we issued $1.25 billion of unsecured notes to refinance remaining '22 maturities and refinanced $2.8 billion of '23 maturities and that were previously backstopped by a Morgan Stanley commitment.

    在第三季度,我們採取了多項積極行動來解決 2022 年和 2023 年到期的 56 億美元問題。自 8 月初以來,我們發行了 12.5 億美元的無擔保票據,為剩餘的 '22 期到期再融資,並為之前得到摩根士丹利承諾支持的 '23 期的 28 億美元再融資。

  • We also extended for 1 year the commitment to a $700 million term loan and extended a $500 million term loan that was scheduled to mature in 2023. All these transactions have been well received by investors, and we were able to upsize and improve pricing. Our access to capital remains strong, and our execution and performance resonate with our investors.

    我們還將 7 億美元定期貸款的承諾延長了 1 年,並延長了計劃於 2023 年到期的 5 億美元定期貸款。所有這些交易都受到了投資者的好評,我們能夠擴大規模並提高定價。我們獲得資金的渠道依然強勁,我們的執行力和業績與我們的投資者產生了共鳴。

  • While rates are higher than what we were able to issue earlier in the year, we have included early redemption features to allow for refinancings or pay down prior to maturity. For 2023, our scheduled debt maturities are $2.1 billion, made up of predominantly ECA debt amortization, which we expect to pay down with cash on hand and cash flow generated from operations.

    雖然利率高於我們今年早些時候能夠發行的利率,但我們已經加入了提前贖回功能,以便在到期前進行再融資或償還。到 2023 年,我們的預定債務到期日為 21 億美元,主要由 ECA 債務攤銷組成,我們預計將用手頭現金和運營產生的現金流來償還。

  • Now turning to guidance. For the fourth quarter of '22, and based on current currency exchange rates, fuel rates and interest rates, we expect to generate approximately $2.6 billion in total revenue, adjusted EBITDA of $350 million to $400 million and adjusted loss per share of $1.30 to $1.50. The combination of our strong brands, amazing experiences and focus on building quality demand position us well for '23. We expect yields to continue ramping up in the first half of '23 based on our return to historical load factors but lay Spring.

    現在轉向指導。對於 22 年第四季度,根據當前貨幣匯率、燃料費率和利率,我們預計總收入約為 26 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 3.5 億美元至 4 億美元,調整後每股虧損為 1.30 美元至 1.50 美元.我們強大的品牌、令人驚嘆的體驗和專注於建立質量需求的結合使我們在 23 年處於有利地位。我們預計收益率將在 23 年上半年繼續上升,基於我們恢復到歷史負載率但春季。

  • I want to take a moment to highlight certain changes in our yield profile and cost base. Over the last several years, we divested the Pullmantur and Azamara brands as well as several other small ships across the fleet.

    我想花一點時間來強調一下我們的收益概況和成本基礎的某些變化。在過去幾年中,我們剝離了 Pullmantur 和 Azamara 品牌以及船隊中的其他幾艘小型船舶。

  • In addition, we do not have any China deployment planned for '23, and we have increased our short Caribbean product. The net effect is a slight reduction in yield but an increase in overall profitability. New ship additions for Celebrity and Silversea result in those brands being a larger percentage of our overall mix in '23 as compared to 2019. These additions are expected to add to our yield and return profile, but also have a higher cost per berth.

    此外,我們沒有計劃在 23 年在中國部署任何產品,並且我們增加了我們的短加勒比海產品。淨效應是產量略有下降,但整體盈利能力有所提高。與 2019 年相比,Celebrity 和 Silversea 的新船增加導致這些品牌在 23 年的整體組合中佔更大比例。這些增加預計將增加我們的產量和回報率,但每個泊位的成本也會更高。

  • Our shift to more North American itineraries reduces our exposure to foreign exchange rates, with about 20% of our revenue expected to be sourced in non-USD currencies versus just over a quarter in prior years.

    我們轉向更多北美行程減少了我們的外匯風險敞口,預計我們約 20% 的收入將來自非美元貨幣,而前幾年只有四分之一多一點。

  • With that said, exchange rates for a basket of currencies are down on average 9% versus 2019.

    話雖如此,與 2019 年相比,一籃子貨幣的匯率平均下跌了 9%。

  • We are very excited about the introduction of the Trifecta program. As we demonstrated before, our proven formula should once again result in strong financial performance. By 2025, our capacity is expected to grow by 6% on an annual basis compared to 2019 with the introduction of 17 new ships across our brands and markets. We expect new ships as well as our relentless focus on the customer to drive additional yield benefits, cost efficiencies and profitability of at least triple-digit EBITDA per APCD by '25.

    我們對 Trifecta 計劃的推出感到非常興奮。正如我們之前所展示的,我們經過驗證的公式應該會再次帶來強勁的財務業績。到 2025 年,我們的運力預計將比 2019 年增長 6%,屆時將在我們的品牌和市場推出 17 艘新船。我們預計,到 25 年,新船以及我們對客戶的不懈關注將推動額外的收益、成本效率和盈利能力,每 APCD 的 EBITDA 至少達到三位數。

  • Every 1% improvement in yield in 2025 will result in $130 million more in revenue and every 1% of change in NCC, excluding fuel, will result in $60 million benefit in operating costs. Increasing EBITDA per APCD to triple digits will allow us to generate strong and growing cash flow and together with disciplined capital allocation, and pay down of debt, return to an investment grade balance sheet profile. We will stay focused on executing on our strategy to achieve strong financial results by growing yields, expanding margins and improving the balance sheet. We have done it before. We have the best brands, the best assets and the best people as we build a bright future of the Royal Caribbean Group.

    到 2025 年,產量每提高 1%,收入將增加 1.3 億美元,NCC (不包括燃料)每變化 1%,運營成本將帶來 6000 萬美元的收益。將每 APCD 的 EBITDA 提高到三位數將使我們能夠產生強勁且不斷增長的現金流,以及嚴格的資本分配,並償還債務,恢復投資級資產負債表。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的戰略,通過提高收益率、擴大利潤率和改善資產負債表來實現強勁的財務業績。我們以前做過。我們擁有最好的品牌、最好的資產和最優秀的人才,共同打造皇家加勒比集團的美好未來。

  • With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for Q&A.

    有了這個,我會要求我們的接線員打開問答電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Your first question is from the line of Stephen Wieczynski with Stifel.

    您的第一個問題來自 Stephen Wieczynski 和 Stifel。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • Yes. So Jason, I know when you like it when I say nice quarter, so I'll go ahead and get that out the way and say nice quarter.

    是的。所以傑森,我知道你什麼時候喜歡我說漂亮的四分之一,所以我會繼續說下去,說漂亮的四分之一。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • You didn't say last time, Steve.

    你上次沒說,史蒂夫。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • I forgot. But as we think about this Trifecta program. I guess what I'm most interested in is the return to investment grade. And -- if I do the math here, I guess you guys are kind of embedding around, let's say, $5 billion of EBITDA by '25, if not higher. So what does that mean from a leverage perspective? And have you had conversations at this point yet with the rating agencies about what your leverage profile would have to look like to get back into that investment grade status saying that another way, I mean, is it a number like 4x? Or is it going to be more about what your interest coverage is going to look like at that point?

    我忘了。但是當我們考慮這個 Trifecta 程序時。我想我最感興趣的是投資等級的回報。而且 - 如果我在這裡進行數學計算,我猜你們有點嵌入,比方說,到 25 年,EBITDA 將達到 50 億美元,如果不是更高的話。那麼從槓桿的角度來看,這意味著什麼?在這一點上,您是否與評級機構進行過對話,討論您的槓桿配置文件必須是什麼樣子才能恢復到該投資級別狀態,換句話說,我的意思是,它是像 4 倍這樣的數字嗎?或者它會更多地關注你的興趣覆蓋範圍在那個時候會是什麼樣子?

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Steve, it's Naf. So first of all, yes, we're very excited about Trifecta and as you've done your math with some of the coordinates we gave you, that's how we think about it. And that will help us as we grow -- continue to grow EBITDA, both help deleverage the balance sheet, but also generate cash flow and with our capital allocation, we're very much focused on paying down debt.

    史蒂夫,我是納夫。所以首先,是的,我們對 Trifecta 感到非常興奮,當你用我們給你的一些坐標進行數學計算時,這就是我們的想法。隨著我們的成長,這將幫助我們——繼續增加 EBITDA,既有助於去槓桿化資產負債表,也有助於產生現金流,通過我們的資本配置,我們非常專注於償還債務。

  • And if you kind of remember 2019 and before, our goal was around and where we were is around 3.5x leverage. And those are the top coordinates that we're looking for, which means for us an investment-grade balance sheet in addition to being an unsecured balance sheet as well. We have and we've been having conversations with the rating agencies. There hasn't been any indication of difference in their kind of ratings versus what was pre-pandemic.

    如果你還記得 2019 年及之前,我們的目標是大約 3.5 倍槓桿率。這些是我們正在尋找的最高坐標,這對我們來說意味著除了無擔保資產負債表之外還有投資級資產負債表。我們已經並且一直在與評級機構進行對話。沒有任何跡象表明他們的收視率與大流行前的收視率存在差異。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then when you guys think about moderate yield growth and what that looks like going forward, I guess what I'm wondering is, how do you think about breaking yields down moving forward between ticket and onboard? I guess what I'm trying to get at here is, are you embedding the consumer at this point? Or are you thinking the consumer kind of stays strong in terms of that onboard spend patterns moving forward? Or can you still get what you call moderate yield growth even if that onboard side does start to slow down?

    好的。偉大的。然後,當你們考慮適度的收益率增長以及未來的情況時,我想我想知道的是,您如何看待在機票和機上之間繼續分解收益率?我想我想在這裡得到的是,您此時是否嵌入了消費者?或者您是否認為消費者在機上消費模式方面保持強勁?或者,即使車載方面確實開始放緩,您仍然可以獲得所謂的適度收益率增長嗎?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Great question, Steve. When we look at things over time, we've been able to grow our like-for-like yields. We've been able to grow our onboard. And obviously, as we take on new ships, the inventory mix has also been helpful as those ships have a better inventory mix with in terms of suites and outside versus inside as well as on the onboard side. There's more venues for us to have different services and experiences for our guests, which they'll spend money on.

    好問題,史蒂夫。當我們隨著時間的推移觀察事物時,我們已經能夠增加同類產量。我們已經能夠在船上發展。顯然,當我們採用新船時,庫存組合也很有幫助,因為這些船在套房和外部與內部和船上方面有更好的庫存組合。我們有更多的場所可以為我們的客人提供不同的服務和體驗,他們會花錢購買。

  • So I think when we think about moderate yield growth, we think about, as we've said it in the past, it's on average, 2% to 4% a year. And on the cost side, it's typically flat to low single digits. So we should be able to grab the scale as our business grows.

    所以我認為,當我們考慮適度的收益率增長時,我們會考慮,正如我們過去所說的那樣,平均每年增長 2% 到 4%。在成本方面,它通常是持平到低個位數。因此,隨著業務的增長,我們應該能夠抓住規模。

  • And that's how I think you'll see us continuing to do that. We're not looking at this as if -- and I've said this in my remarks, as the operating environment is going to be perfect, and that the consumer is going to be perfect.

    這就是我認為你會看到我們繼續這樣做的方式。我們不認為這似乎 - 我在我的評論中說過這一點,因為操作環境將是完美的,而消費者將是完美的。

  • What we've done is we know that we have been able to manage our business in that way in times in which the market might be accelerating and sometimes when market is a little bit choppy, and that's why we looked at this over this kind of 2.5, 3-year period of time on us getting back. Well, not just getting back, accelerating past are highs in 2019.

    我們所做的是,我們知道我們能夠在市場可能加速發展的時候,有時市場有點波動的時候,以這種方式管理我們的業務,這就是為什麼我們在這種情況下看待這個2.5,3年的時間就讓我們回來了。好吧,不僅僅是回歸,加速過去是 2019 年的高點。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • And can I ask one real quick housekeeping question. And I guess there might be some confusion out there about -- when you talk about records, EBITDA in '23. Is that going off of an EBITDA base in 2019 of $3.6 billion or $3.4 billion? I think there's different thought processes out there.

    我能問一個真正快速的家政問題嗎?而且我想可能會有一些混淆——當你談論記錄時,23 年的 EBITDA。 2019 年的 EBITDA 基數是 36 億美元還是 34 億美元?我認為那裡有不同的思維過程。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. It's the former, $3.6 billion.

    是的。是前者,36億美元。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • $3.6 billion.

    36億美元。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • I thought you're going to ask me about vacuuming, Steve, on the housekeeping question, I guess.

    我想你會問我關於吸塵的事,史蒂夫,我猜是關於家務的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • You mentioned that price is at record levels for '23. I wonder if you could sort of give a ballpark of how that price compares on a percentage basis to 2019, knowing that it could go up or down from there, but just in terms of how it's tracking.

    您提到 23 年的價格處於創紀錄水平。我想知道您是否可以大致了解該價格與 2019 年的百分比比較,知道它可能會從那裡上漲或下跌,但僅就其跟踪方式而言。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, it's still early. And Robin, you know this from the past, it would be early for us to provide guidance. But I think how we've kind of talked about the Trifecta program is kind of how we think about yields and costs and so forth for next year. So that's what I would kind of use more principally as a guiding tool, but it's early, there's -- we still have -- we're still building the book of business. While it is accelerating, and we're very happy with it. We're comfortable providing exactly what those cornets will become or January or early February call.

    嗯,現在還早。羅賓,你從過去就知道這一點,我們現在提供指導還為時過早。但我認為我們談論 Trifecta 計劃的方式有點像我們如何看待明年的產量和成本等。所以這就是我主要用作指導工具的東西,但現在還為時過早,我們仍然有 - 我們仍在建立業務手冊。雖然它正在加速,我們對此非常滿意。我們很樂意準確地提供這些短號將成為什麼,或者 1 月或 2 月初的電話。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. Then you're probably going to love my next question with you.

    好的。那麼你可能會喜歡我的下一個問題。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • I love that question, Robin.

    我喜歡這個問題,羅賓。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Well, it's sort of similar about expenses that just looking at what were sort of onetime expenses, meaning like the ramp-up in some of the protocols that you don't have to follow anymore was maybe about 3% to 5% of the expense increase in '23. And so as you're in Q4, when you're talking about being up low to mid-single versus '19, if we think of that maybe some ramp down in some of those onetime costs could you get to the point in '23 where your expense is actually lower just given your greater scale and more efficient ships. And this is all excluding fuel cost, which to not forecast that. But just your fuel expense per (inaudible) cruises, like potentially being better, being lower and better than it was in '19.

    嗯,關於費用有點類似,只是看一下一次性費用,這意味著像一些你不必再遵循的協議中的增加可能是費用的 3% 到 5% 23 年增加。因此,當您在第四季度時,當您談論與 19 年相比從低到中單時,如果我們考慮到這一點,可能會在某些一次性成本中有所下降,您能否在 23 年達到這一點考慮到您更大的規模和更高效的船舶,您的費用實際上更低。而這一切都不包括燃料成本,這是無法預測的。但只是你每次(聽不清)巡航的燃料費用,比如可能比 19 年更好、更低和更好。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes. So I'll follow what Jason was saying, which is we're still early in our planning cycle and obviously, we're not providing guidance here. But I think as we think about it, as we said, there are those onetime costs that we incurred this year, can we expect them to be lagging into the fourth quarter.

    是的。因此,我將按照 Jason 的說法,即我們仍處於規劃週期的早期階段,顯然,我們不會在這裡提供指導。但我認為,正如我們所說,我們今年產生了一次性成本,我們是否可以預期它們會滯後到第四季度。

  • And again, going back to Trifecta in our formula, this is how we think about things in terms of how do we increase profitability. We continue to see inflation. We're working really hard to mitigate the impact of it, and making sure that we are continuing to increase the margins of the business.

    再一次,回到我們的公式中的 Trifecta,這就是我們在如何提高盈利能力方面思考事情的方式。我們繼續看到通貨膨脹。我們正在努力減輕它的影響,並確保我們繼續增加業務的利潤。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I think just to add, Robin, we certainly much appreciate when we look at a 14% capacity increase that we should be able to get more efficient over time. And of course, some of that capacity increase that's coming in as a mix leans heavier now towards Silversea and celebrity in terms of the capacity growth. And of course, those are higher net cruise cost products. But in the same vein, we have been taking a lot -- we have taken a lot of action during the course of this. We've done a lot of I've described in the past getting into our wedding weight here, which is helping us combat a lot of the inflation so that we can kind of think about that formula for success as we go into 2023.

    是的。我想補充一點,羅賓,當我們看到容量增加 14% 時,我們當然非常感激,隨著時間的推移,我們應該能夠提高效率。當然,在容量增長方面,隨著組合現在更傾向於 Silversea 和名人,其中一些容量增長正在到來。當然,這些都是淨郵輪成本較高的產品。但同樣,我們採取了很多措施——在此過程中我們採取了很多行動。我們已經做了很多我過去描述過的事情來計算我們的婚禮體重,這有助於我們對抗很多通貨膨脹,這樣我們就可以在進入 2023 年時思考成功的公式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Vincent Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

    您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vincent Ciepiel。

  • Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

    Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. First, a little bit more near-term focus. Looking at your occupancy progress in 3Q as well as what's implied for 4Q, it looks like you're outperforming peers by almost a low teens percentage in the second half of this year. And curious your thoughts on what's driving that? Is that geography? Is it mix of ships, strength of your brands, more marketing? What do you think is kind of the biggest contributor to the occupancy recovery outperformance?

    偉大的。首先,更多的近期焦點。查看您在第三季度的入住進度以及第四季度的隱含情況,看起來您在今年下半年的表現幾乎比同行高出十幾歲的百分比。並且好奇你的想法是什麼推動了這一點?是地理嗎?是船舶的組合、品牌的實力、更多的營銷嗎?您認為入住率恢復表現優異的最大因素是什麼?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, I can't really speak for our competitors in terms of what's happening inside their business. But I think for us, we obviously -- we returned our ships very quickly. I do think that some of the things that you laid out there, strong brands well, I think, leading brands, leading ships, having assets like Perfect Day at CocoCay has resulted in an acceleration of our business, while it's also being very mindful about price integrity. Certainly could be higher load factors if we wanted to take action on price, which we're not looking in. We have no intent to do. And of course, in the Q4, we're moving into the shoulder season, which is why load factors are more or less what we talked about in Q3, and rates are typically lower in Q4 because that's the shoulder season period of time.

    是的。好吧,我真的不能代表我們的競爭對手就他們的業務內部發生的事情說話。但我認為對我們來說,我們顯然 - 我們很快就返回了我們的船隻。我確實認為你在那裡列出的一些東西,強大的品牌,我認為,領先的品牌,領先的船隻,在 CocoCay 擁有像 Perfect Day 這樣的資產已經導致我們的業務加速,同時它也非常注意價格誠信。如果我們想對價格採取行動,當然可能是更高的負載率,我們沒有考慮。我們無意這樣做。當然,在第 4 季度,我們正在進入平季,這就是為什麼載客率或多或少是我們在第 3 季度談到的,而第 4 季度的費率通常較低,因為那是平季時期。

  • But what we see is a lot of demand for our brands, we see the return. I mean everything has normalized in terms of new to cruise, Bar Oil Gas first to brand. And so now, it's just building up a quality book of business over time as we would do in a regular way as we enter a normal 2023 year.

    但我們看到的是對我們品牌的大量需求,我們看到了回報。我的意思是,就新郵輪而言,一切都已正常化,Bar Oil Gas 率先成為品牌。所以現在,它只是隨著時間的推移建立一本高質量的商業書籍,就像我們在進入正常的 2023 年時通常會做的那樣。

  • Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

    Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And then thinking longer term pricing opportunity ahead of you and the value gap versus land based. Some of that gap has been exacerbated through COVID, which makes sense given the industry was on pause for so long, but some of that gap even exists at pre-COVID.

    偉大的。然後考慮您之前的長期定價機會以及與土地為基礎的價值差距。 COVID 加劇了其中的一些差距,考慮到該行業停頓了這麼長時間,這是有道理的,但其中一些差距甚至存在於 COVID 之前。

  • So I'm curious how you guys have improved the product in the last few years to kind of better meet the consumers' need or is it just marketing the product more to raise awareness to help close that gap.

    所以我很好奇你們在過去幾年是如何改進產品以更好地滿足消費者的需求,還是只是更多地營銷產品以提高認識以幫助縮小差距。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Vince, what can I say? You just gave me the great question. I've been sitting quietly here, waiting for somebody to ask such a question. Obviously, we're extremely pleased and delighted and honestly excited with the direction of the business. I think, as Jason commented earlier, the results from Icon of the Seas that the first weeks bookings for Icon were absolutely phenomenal.

    文斯,我能說什麼?你剛剛給了我一個很好的問題。我一直安靜地坐在這裡,等著有人問這樣的問題。顯然,我們對業務的發展方向感到非常高興、高興和真誠地興奮。我認為,正如 Jason 之前評論的那樣,Icon of the Seas 的結果表明,Icon 的第一周預訂量絕對是驚人的。

  • I mean we had high expectations in the actual result, just even surprised us. I'm not going to give you the stats for that first week because I may get into trouble, but they were really phenomenal. And Icon is the first in a new class of ships for Royal Caribbean, which is squarely in the family market, which is a scale. Obviously, it's a scale brand with a huge presence in the American market and a strong global footprint. That product and the journey that we've been on now for many years in terms of where we're taking the brands, the introduction of Perfect Day and our plans for future destinations, combined with new hardware and certainly with Icon now leading the way late in '23 and into '24, where we're really focusing on this target market, which is family and of course, has many new neighborhoods, including a neighborhood called Surf side, which is absolutely focused on young families and those young families with children 6 and under travel all year end because obviously, parents can pull their kids out of pre-K and what have you. The Icon product along with Perfect Day with the kind of experiences that we're offering with the kind of new accommodations that we have on Icon, and the experiences that we have for young families, older families and, of course, couples and signals and what have you, is really squarely standing shoulder to shoulder with Orlando and those kinds of destinations. And what we're beginning to see is the -- for us is moving certainly the Royal brand into that space far more aggressively. And we're seeing the kind of booking activity and demand and enthusiasm for those products is increasing and accelerating.

    我的意思是我們對實際結果抱有很高的期望,甚至讓我們感到驚訝。我不會給你第一周的數據,因為我可能會遇到麻煩,但它們真的很棒。而Icon是皇家加勒比新船級中的第一艘,這完全是在家庭市場上,這是一個規模。顯然,它是一個在美國市場擁有巨大影響力和強大全球足蹟的規模品牌。該產品和我們多年來在品牌定位、Perfect Day 的推出和我們對未來目的地的計劃方面的旅程,再加上新的硬件,當然還有現在的 Icon 引領潮流在 23 年末到 24 年,我們真正專注於這個目標市場,這是家庭,當然還有許多新社區,包括一個名為 Surf side 的社區,它絕對專注於年輕家庭和那些年輕家庭與 6 歲及以下的孩子一起旅行全年結束,因為顯然,父母可以將他們的孩子從 pre-K 中拉出來,而你有什麼。 Icon 產品以及 Perfect Day 以及我們在 Icon 上提供的那種新住宿體驗,以及我們為年輕家庭、老年家庭,當然還有夫妻和信號和信號提供的體驗你有什麼,真的與奧蘭多和那些目的地並肩站立。我們開始看到的是——對我們來說,皇家品牌肯定會更加積極地進入這個領域。我們看到預訂活動以及對這些產品的需求和熱情正在增加和加速。

  • So I would say that's the direction we're on. And again, what we've seen with Icon in the first week, and it's continued now into the second week, there's a huge amount of demand for that product. And I think -- if I'm correct, Vince, Michael told me that you'd actually been sitting on a plane, and you overheard a conversation. Maybe you could share with everybody else what you overheard on that plane.

    所以我想說這就是我們前進的方向。再說一次,我們在第一周看到 Icon 的情況,現在一直持續到第二週,對該產品的需求量很大。我想——如果我是對的,文斯,邁克爾告訴我你實際上坐在飛機上,你無意中聽到了一段對話。也許你可以和其他人分享你在那架飛機上偷聽到的東西。

  • Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

    Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

  • Well, it's something we hear often from our conversations with agents just stealing a little bit of market share from land based and it was a random traveler behind me saying they were thinking about going to Disney, but going to book their family on the Icon. So yes, it speaks to maybe some market share gains there. One-off conversation, but part of a broader theme.

    嗯,這是我們經常從與代理商的談話中聽到的,他們只是從陸上竊取了一點市場份額,我身後的一個隨機旅行者說他們正在考慮去迪斯尼,但打算在 Icon 上預訂他們的家人。所以,是的,這說明那裡的市場份額可能有所增長。一次性對話,但屬於更廣泛主題的一部分。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let's just assume that everybody says that. And I just wanted to add to Michael's comments. Obviously, we've seen this 40% gap to land-based vacation. It used to be about 20%. The World brand actually closed the gap very significantly with the introduction of Perfect Day, the modernization of our fleet. And so we see there's a lot of opportunity to close that gap here over time. And I think what you're also hearing from us in, and we'll probably talk more about this in our Investor Day in the coming weeks here is just how we need to increase frequency with our guests. We need to improve our loyalty programs. We need to be more on one to one so that we're putting offers in front of our guests that are very relevant to them individually and just bring more awareness. And that should all yield us closing the gap further, too, to land-based vacation. So we're not happy about on that gap, but it serves as a great motivation for us to go after it.

    是的。讓我們假設每個人都這麼說。我只是想補充一下邁克爾的評論。顯然,我們已經看到了與陸上度假相比 40% 的差距。以前是20%左右。隨著 Perfect Day 的推出,我們的機隊進行了現代化改造,World 品牌實際上大大縮小了差距。所以我們看到隨著時間的推移有很多機會可以縮小這個差距。而且我認為您也聽到了我們的消息,我們可能會在未來幾週的投資者日上更多地討論這個問題,這就是我們需要如何增加與客人的頻率。我們需要改進我們的忠誠度計劃。我們需要更多地一對一,這樣我們才能在客人面前提供與他們個人非常相關的優惠,並帶來更多的意識。這一切都應該讓我們進一步縮小與陸上度假的差距。所以我們對這個差距並不滿意,但這對我們來說是一個很大的動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

    您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

  • Brandt Montour

    Brandt Montour

  • Congratulations on getting this Trifecta out there. My first question is on broader bookings volume trends throughout the quarter, Jason, if you could just speak broadly in terms of how that sort of trended post the protocol relaxation, if there was sort of a huge spike from a pent-up of people waiting for that to happen and then it eased a bit? Or is it even? Or did it accelerate through anything you could help -- you could add would be helpful.

    恭喜你把這個 Trifecta 放在那裡。我的第一個問題是關於整個季度更廣泛的預訂量趨勢,傑森,如果你能廣泛地說一下協議放鬆後這種趨勢如何,是否有因等待被壓抑的人而導致的巨大飆升發生這種情況,然後緩解了一點?或者甚至是?或者它是否通過您可以幫助的任何事情加速 - 您可以添加會有所幫助。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes, sure. Brandt, let me just jump in before maybe Jason has some comments. But we were all waiting for that change in the protocols. Our calculation on the addressable market was quite significant in terms of the number of people who were excluded from the brands and the product because of these protocols and requirements, et cetera.

    是的,當然。 Brandt,讓我在 Jason 發表評論之前先插話。但我們都在等待協議的變化。我們對目標市場的計算非常重要,因為這些協議和要求等原因導致品牌和產品被排除在外的人數。

  • And we already -- we were already doing very well pre that announcement. But when those protocols fell off, we immediately saw a significant increase in the volume of bookings and that volume continued to -- has just continued and has accelerated. And I think what we've seen is that all think our calculation in the American market was that the addressable market expanded by about 35 million people, almost overnight, and we saw that coming through in our bookings. So it was a very positive step. And if you look globally now, there's -- it's pretty much the same story all around the world in the Australian market, where we're obviously operating and there are still some protocols still in place, but we're pretty confident they're going to fall away in the coming weeks and months. So we've really entered into a very normalized environment, and we've seen the customers respond honestly, with a huge amount of enthusiasm, it has been extremely positive.

    我們已經 - 在宣布之前我們已經做得很好了。但是,當這些協議失效時,我們立即看到預訂量顯著增加,並且該量繼續 - 剛剛繼續並且還在加速。而且我認為我們所看到的是,所有人都認為我們在美國市場的計算是,目標市場幾乎在一夜之間擴大了約 3500 萬人,我們在預訂中看到了這一點。所以這是非常積極的一步。如果你現在放眼全球,澳大利亞市場在全球範圍內幾乎都是一樣的故事,我們顯然正在運營,並且仍然有一些協議仍然存在,但我們非常有信心它們會將在未來幾周和幾個月內消失。所以我們真的進入了一個非常規範的環境,我們看到客戶誠實地回應,帶著巨大的熱情,非常積極。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. The only -- I just want to add, because it's -- I know coming out of all this, there's always a lot of what's happening with protocols and so forth. I think it's just important to note that the business is back and operating, the booking activity is very like similar to what we were experiencing in '19. And of course, it's accelerating, which is what we want to see. The consumer is very healthy. They're spending a lot of money on our ships. But psychologically, and we experience wise, we're -- it's almost as if we just stepped into the next quarter after '19, and we're just -- it's business as usual.

    是的。唯一的——我只想補充,因為它——我知道從這一切中走出來,總是有很多關於協議的事情等等。我認為重要的是要注意業務已恢復並開始運營,預訂活動與我們在 19 年所經歷的非常相似。當然,它正在加速,這是我們希望看到的。消費者非常健康。他們在我們的船上花了很多錢。但在心理上,我們的經驗是明智的,我們 - 就好像我們剛剛進入 19 年之後的下一個季度,我們只是 - 一切照舊。

  • Brandt Montour

    Brandt Montour

  • Got it. Great. That's excellent to hear. And then my second question is on net yields for 2023. You guys went through lots of puts and takes versus 2019. I feel like I'm going a Ph.D. and physics just to sort of distill it down to a common denominator here. But if I add up everything, Pullmantur, Azamara, the change in mix for CocoCay, the change in mix for North America in general, the exiting of higher yield in China. I know you guys don't have guidance out there and you're not going to get it. But just when you add it all up, does it equal a net positive or negative mix shift to where we would have been otherwise versus '19?

    知道了。偉大的。很好聽。然後我的第二個問題是關於 2023 年的淨收益率。與 2019 年相比,你們經歷了很多看跌期權。我覺得我正在攻讀博士學位。和物理學只是為了在這裡提煉出一個共同點。但如果我把所有東西都加起來,Pullmantur、Azamara、CocoCay 的組合變化、北美總體上的組合變化、中國更高產量的退出。我知道你們那裡沒有指導,你也不會得到它。但是,就在你把所有的東西加起來時,它是否等於淨正或負混合轉變到我們在其他情況下與 19 年相比的情況?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Our expectation, as I said, is our yields will be up in 2023 and our EBITDA will be better in 2023. And we expect to see -- we're going to manage our costs as we always have. And we know that there are headwinds as we -- there are some structural headwinds that are not pointed out on the top line, but our expectations are that our yields are going to accelerate, and we expect that we're going to be managing our costs effectively and our capital allocation effectively.

    正如我所說,我們的預期是我們的收益率將在 2023 年上升,我們的 EBITDA 將在 2023 年更好。我們希望看到——我們將像往常一樣管理我們的成本。而且我們知道有一些不利因素 - 有一些結構性不利因素沒有在頂線上指出,但我們的預期是我們的收益率將會加速,我們預計我們將管理我們的有效地降低成本並有效地分配我們的資本。

  • Brandt Montour

    Brandt Montour

  • Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting that -- I just wanted to focus just on the mix, not if it was up versus '19 or down versus '19, but if you were to take a benchmark versus '19, what the mix shift alone would do to that benchmark? That's what I was asking about. But I appreciate your comment.

    澄清一下,我並不是在暗示——我只是想關注組合,而不是與 '19 相比是上升還是與 19 相比下降,但如果你要對 19 進行基準測試,那麼單獨使用 mix shift 會影響該基準嗎?這就是我要問的。但我很欣賞你的評論。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, for sure, the combination of new ships and the exit of Azamara and so forth, that nets out to a positive for us.

    是的,可以肯定的是,新船的組合和 Azamara 的退出等等,這對我們來說是積極的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

  • Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

  • Just a quick clarification. You guys mentioned some inflationary cost in the first half of next year. Is that incremental to what you're seeing today? Or are you just kind of suggesting a continuation of the trend into the first half of next year?

    只是一個快速的澄清。你們提到了明年上半年的一些通脹成本。這是你今天看到的增量嗎?或者你只是在暗示這種趨勢會延續到明年上半年?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We actually are seeing some mitigation, but it's a little bit hard, right? The environment is pretty complex. So what we're seeing is a continuation of what we're seeing today.

    是的。我們實際上看到了一些緩解,但這有點難,對吧?環境相當複雜。因此,我們所看到的是我們今天所看到的繼續。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes. But I think just to add on to it, what we're not really seeing now is our commodities -- things that are inflationary impacted going up now. So it has stabilized. And it's not mentioned there, we're starting to see, especially kind of in the protein space where those commodity costs are starting to come down.

    是的。但我想補充一下,我們現在沒有真正看到的是我們的商品——受通脹影響的東西現在正在上漲。所以已經穩定下來了。那裡沒有提到,我們開始看到,尤其是在那些商品成本開始下降的蛋白質領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Daniel Politzer with Wells Fargo.

    您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Daniel Politzer。

  • Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I was wondering if we could just unpack the bookings commentary a little bit more. As you look across 2023, where you -- what are some of the highlights you'd call out? Is it Europe? Is it Caribbean? And also, as you exit this year, what's the typical percent of both things that you have on the books for the following year?

    我想知道我們是否可以再解開預訂評論。當您展望 2023 年時,您在哪裡 - 您會提到哪些亮點?是歐洲嗎?是加勒比海嗎?而且,當你今年退出時,你在下一年的賬簿上所擁有的這兩種東西的典型百分比是多少?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure. So I think what we're seeing kind of across the board, there's a lot of strength in the Caribbean. We see strength in Alaska. We see strength in Europe, more focused on the Mediterranean area is where we see the strength in the bookings. But we see a lot of like these puts and takes, and we see these trends change a little bit over time. But for the most part, we're seeing most of our products, a lot of strength with the focus a little bit more on the Caribbean in terms of where we're seeing the consumer want to get ahead of the curve in their booking activities.

    是的,當然。所以我認為我們所看到的是全面的,加勒比地區有很多力量。我們在阿拉斯加看到了力量。我們看到歐洲的實力,更專注於地中海地區是我們看到預訂實力的地方。但是我們看到了很多類似的看跌期權,並且我們看到這些趨勢隨著時間的推移而發生了一些變化。但在大多數情況下,我們看到我們的大部分產品,在我們看到消費者希望在預訂活動中領先於曲線方面更多地關注加勒比海地區的力量很大.

  • Historically, we've entered the year somewhere between 55% and 60%. I would just be mindful as we go into next year and some of the comments that I made; we don't have any China business. Typically, at this point of the year, we would have most of that business booked because it was charter-related contracts. So that will weigh a little bit on terms of the percent that were booked. And we have more short product going into 2023, which is a little bit more of a closer in product. But we feel very comfortable with not only how we're booking, but we feel very comfortable on how we're going to turn the year to put us in a position for positive yield growth.

    從歷史上看,我們進入這一年的比例在 55% 到 60% 之間。當我們進入明年以及我發表的一些評論時,我會留心;我們沒有任何中國業務。通常,在今年的這個時候,我們會預訂大部分業務,因為它是與租船相關的合同。因此,這將對預訂的百分比產生一些影響。到 2023 年,我們有更多的短期產品,這在產品上更接近一點。但我們不僅對我們的預訂方式感到非常滿意,而且對我們將如何扭轉這一年以使我們處於收益率正增長的位置感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

  • Frederick Charles Wightman - Research Analyst

    Frederick Charles Wightman - Research Analyst

  • There was a comment and sort of the breakdown on the occupancy in the quarter that Europe lagged Alaska and Caribbean, and I know that, that was the plan. But can you just sort of help us think about that European occupancy figure as we move into 4Q and then into next year? Is that going to be a laggard for a while? Or do you think that, that ultimately just catches up with the other markets?

    關於歐洲落後於阿拉斯加和加勒比地區的季度入住率有評論和分類,我知道,這就是計劃。但是,當我們進入第四季度然後進入明年時,您能幫我們考慮一下歐洲的入住率嗎?這會是一段時間的落後嗎?還是您認為最終會趕上其他市場?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • No, we -- I think we mentioned it also in the prior call, we think that we -- this is really a phenomenal this year, just given what happened earlier in the year. So as we look forward, we expect this to be normal. We do have, as I mentioned, we did finish 90% in Europe. It actually a little bit better than what we expected. And for the fourth quarter, it's really late season Europe, which typically is a lower occupancy.

    不,我們 - 我認為我們在之前的電話會議中也提到了它,我們認為我們 - 今年確實是非凡的,只是考慮到今年早些時候發生的事情。因此,當我們向前看時,我們預計這將是正常的。正如我所提到的,我們確實在歐洲完成了 90%。它實際上比我們預期的要好一點。而對於第四季度,這確實是歐洲的晚季,通常入住率較低。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes. And just to add, Fred, I think the real trigger in Europe was when the U.S. finally dropped the testing requirement for U.S. citizens to come back in. And unfortunately, that didn't happen until very late spring, and that impacted just the bookings over time. But the ramp-up from when that announcement was made has not commented that acceleration resulted in us doing better than we had anticipated in the third quarter, but it is a high-yielding product. And so that mix shift and impacts your overall yields.

    是的。順便說一句,弗雷德,我認為歐洲的真正觸發因素是美國最終放棄了對美國公民返回的測試要求。不幸的是,直到春天很晚才發生這種情況,而且只影響了預訂隨著時間的推移。但是,自該公告發布之時起,我們並沒有評論加速導致我們在第三季度的表現比我們預期的要好,但它是一種高收益產品。因此,這種混合轉變並影響您的整體產量。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Just to add to that, we also had the whole Ukrainian situation which when you think about it, that came, I think, pretty much at the beginning of the season. So that was a really pretty significant curve for bookings for a while.

    除此之外,我們還有整個烏克蘭的情況,當你想到它時,我認為這幾乎是在賽季開始時出現的。所以這對於一段時間的預訂來說是一個非常重要的曲線。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Makes sense. And then just quickly on China, no assumption that China comes back online in '23, but what have you guys assumed for the '25 targets for China?

    說得通。然後很快談到中國,沒有假設中國會在 23 年重新上線,但是你們對 25 年中國的目標有什麼假設?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's very minimal. Well, actually, there's no real -- though we expect that we will be in China before the end of 2025. And our assumptions around our Trifecta plan, we have not considered that at this point in time.

    是的,它非常小。嗯,實際上,沒有真正的——儘管我們預計我們將在 2025 年底之前進入中國。我們對 Trifecta 計劃的假設,我們目前還沒有考慮到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from the line of Jaime Katz with Royal Caribbean.

    您的下一個問題來自皇家加勒比海的 Jaime Katz。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

  • It's Jaime from Morningstar.

    是晨星的詹姆。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • I was getting excited, Jaime. I was.

    我很興奮,詹姆。我曾是。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

  • First, I'm curious if you guys would be able to delineate maybe what the best cost opportunity is you have out there to control or outside of these transitory things that are printing back over the next few years.

    首先,我很好奇你們是否能夠描述出最好的成本機會是你可以控制的最好的成本機會,或者在這些暫時的東西之外,這些暫時的東西將在未來幾年內打印出來。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I think some of that comes into -- on the inflationary side and our ability to just continue to evolve our very nimble supply chain platforms to reduce our costs. And some of that is by being able to do things more locally versus going on and globally source everything, which sometimes can result in us lowering the freight costs and so forth, which can improve our cost structure.

    好吧,我認為其中一些原因是在通貨膨脹方面以及我們繼續發展我們非常靈活的供應鏈平台以降低成本的能力。其中一些是通過能夠在本地做更多的事情而不是繼續和全球採購一切,這有時可以導致我們降低貨運成本等等,這可以改善我們的成本結構。

  • And then there's also a lot of opportunity on just automation and doing things more efficiently that we also think is an opportunity for us to lower our costs.

    然後在自動化和更有效地做事方面也有很多機會,我們也認為這是我們降低成本的機會。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes. And I guess kind of if you take a step back or higher a little bit, it's also as we continue to grow capacity and grow the business, really leveraging the scale and creating the operating leverage so we can expand the margin.

    是的。而且我想如果你退後一步或更高一點,這也是因為我們繼續增加產能並發展業務,真正利用規模並創造運營槓桿,以便我們可以擴大利潤率。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Of course. And then for -- if you look at the brands, I know you probably won't bifurcate them, but I'm curious if there are any different demand patterns you guys are seeing between maybe Royal Caribbean and Silversea. Is there any sort of booking pattern differences or pricing power differences just as we think about different income demographic strategy?

    當然。然後是——如果你看看這些品牌,我知道你可能不會把它們分開,但我很好奇你們在皇家加勒比和銀海之間看到的需求模式是否不同。就像我們考慮不同的收入人口策略一樣,是否存在任何類型的預訂模式差異或定價能力差異?

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean all 3 brands are actually doing very well. The Silversea guest is obviously a higher-yielding guest, and they tend to book further out, which helps us when we think about our booking curve and more mix of Silversea in there. Well, I think the only thing that I would probably just add is you certainly see the -- currently, the drivable market is certainly something that's benefiting our brands, or you can see that in the bookings, the guests who are willing to drive 6, 7, 8 hours to their home port is definitely a trend that we have been seeing. But this is not a surprise coming out of COVID. And now we're starting to see guests plan their vacations for FLY crews, for example, into Europe much earlier than we saw pre-COVID.

    是的。我的意思是所有 3 個品牌實際上都做得很好。 Silversea 的客人顯然是一個收益較高的客人,他們傾向於預訂更遠的地方,這有助於我們考慮我們的預訂曲線和更多的 Silversea 組合。好吧,我想我唯一可能要補充的是,您肯定會看到——目前,可駕駛市場肯定有利於我們的品牌,或者您可以在預訂中看到,願意駕駛 6 ,7、8小時到他們的母港絕對是我們一直看到的趨勢。但這並不奇怪來自 COVID。現在,我們開始看到客人為 FLY 機組人員計劃他們的假期,例如,比我們在 COVID 之前看到的要早得多地進入歐洲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Today's final question will come from the line of Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital.

    今天的最後一個問題將來自麥格理資本的 Paul Golding。

  • Paul Alexander Golding - Analyst

    Paul Alexander Golding - Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter. I wanted to dive quickly into the marketing, selling and admin line. It looks relatively flat sequentially. So I'm just trying to figure out here if outside of Wave, we should think about this returning to normalized structural proportional levels. Does it in addition to TAM unlocking? Is it getting cheaper or easier to acquire customers from a marketing cost perspective per unit? And then I have a follow-up.

    祝賀本季度。我想快速深入到營銷、銷售和管理領域。它看起來順序相對平坦。所以我只是想在這裡弄清楚是否在 Wave 之外,我們應該考慮回到標準化的結構比例水平。除了TAM解鎖嗎?從單位營銷成本的角度來看,獲取客戶是否變得更便宜或更容易?然後我有一個跟進。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, that's right. And we don't -- we expect this as -- I think we said even in the last quarter earnings. We expect this to be normalized in terms of our investment in sales and marketing. We're always thinking about where is the best money to spend with channel, which market. But generally, we expect it to be at normal levels.

    是的。不,沒錯。而且我們不 - 我們預計這是 - 我認為我們甚至在上一季度的收益中也說過。我們預計這將在我們對銷售和營銷的投資方面正常化。我們一直在考慮在哪個渠道、哪個市場上花錢最划算。但總的來說,我們預計它會處於正常水平。

  • Naftali Holtz - CFO

    Naftali Holtz - CFO

  • Yes. And I think the point is we're getting much more efficient in our ability to go one-to-one to our customers. But the cost, which I know you guys all follow -- the costs for SEO and other related marketing activities has gone up. There's been inflation or demand elements that have caused that to go up and our teams have done, I think, a very great job in finding efficient ways to do that. And we're not having to spend additional marketing dollars to generate demand, which really just shows the strength of our brands and the positioning of our deployment, which has paid us quite well.

    是的。我認為關鍵是我們在與客戶一對一的能力方面變得更有效率。但是我知道你們都遵循的成本——搜索引擎優化和其他相關營銷活動的成本上升了。通貨膨脹或需求因素導致了這一點上升,我認為我們的團隊在尋找有效的方法來做到這一點方面做得非常好。而且我們不必花費額外的營銷資金來產生需求,這實際上只是顯示了我們品牌的實力和我們部署的定位,這給我們帶來了豐厚的回報。

  • Paul Alexander Golding - Analyst

    Paul Alexander Golding - Analyst

  • And then thinking about Trifecta and some of the initiatives, I was wondering if there was any sort of order priority among those different initiatives? I'm mostly thinking about your ROIC and earnings relative to deleveraging in light of the carbon reduction efforts, which presumably would carry some amount of cost, expense and capital.

    然後考慮 Trifecta 和一些倡議,我想知道這些不同倡議之間是否有任何順序優先級?鑑於碳減排努力,我主要考慮的是你的投資回報率和與去槓桿相關的收益,這可能會帶來一定的成本、費用和資本。

  • Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

    Jason T. Liberty - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I wouldn't put them in that they have different priorities. Of course, the ROIC, the EBITDA margin and leverage and earnings, they're all very interrelated. at the same time, we are -- we've quadrupled down on what we can do to reduce our consumption, the technologies that we can be employing to reduce our carbon footprint. So that is not -- when we look at the lenses are making decision-making, it's about what's best for the customer, what's best for our investors and what's best for the environment and how we make those decisions to make sure that we're optimizing all of them.

    是的。我不會說他們有不同的優先級。當然,ROIC、EBITDA 利潤率、槓桿率和收益,它們都是相互關聯的。與此同時,我們 - 我們已經將我們可以做的減少消費的四倍減少,我們可以用來減少碳足蹟的技術。所以這不是——當我們看到鏡頭做出決策時,它是關於什麼對客戶最有利,什麼對我們的投資者最有利,什麼對環境最有利,以及我們如何做出這些決定以確保我們是優化所有這些。

  • Michael McCarthy - VP of IR

    Michael McCarthy - VP of IR

  • Great. So thank you, everyone, for your participation and interest in the company. Michael will be available for any follow-up. I wish you all a great day. Thanks a lot.

    偉大的。因此,感謝大家對公司的參與和關注。邁克爾將可用於任何後續行動。祝大家有個美好的一天。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you all for joining today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。