皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Group's Business Update and Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Michael McCarthy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. McCarthy, the floor is yours.

早上好。我的名字是謝爾比，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團的業務更新和 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想介紹投資者關係副總裁 Michael McCarthy。麥卡錫先生，發言權是你的。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our business update and fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的業務更新以及 2021 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。我們的首席執行官 Jason Liberty 和我一起來到邁阿密。 Naftali Holtz，我們的首席財務官；以及皇家加勒比國際公司總裁兼首席執行官邁克爾·貝利。

Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們將在這次電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。有關這些因素的描述，請參閱我們今天上午發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。

Also, we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our website and in our earnings release available at www.rclinvestor.com. Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow up with a recap of our fourth quarter and full year results, an update on our latest actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標按定義進行調整，所有非 GAAP 項目的對賬可以在我們的網站和我們的收益發布中找到，網址為 www.rclinvestor.com。 Jason 將通過提供戰略概述和業務更新來開始電話會議。 Naftali 將跟進我們的第四季度和全年業績回顧，更新我們的最新行動和當前預訂環境。然後，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。有了這個，我很高興將電話轉給傑森。

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be with all of you today in my new role here at Royal Caribbean Group. I'm very fortunate and humbled to take the helm of this incredible organization, which includes our industry-leading brands and the most innovative fleet in the world that is enabled by our incredible people and culture. I'm very much looking forward to building on the company's remarkable legacy and track record in the years ahead.

謝謝你，邁克爾，大家早上好。我很高興今天能在皇家加勒比集團擔任我的新職務，與大家在一起。我非常幸運和謙卑地掌管這個令人難以置信的組織，其中包括我們行業領先的品牌和世界上最具創新性的車隊，這得益於我們令人難以置信的人才和文化。我非常期待在未來幾年繼續鞏固公司卓越的傳統和業績記錄。

I also want to congratulate and welcome Naftali as our new CFO. Many of you already know Naf, but for those who don't, I'm confident you'll enjoy working with him. Our mission at Royal Caribbean has been and continues to be focused simply and completely on delivering, every day, the very best vacation experience and doing so in a responsible way. It is awe-inspiring to see our team deliver on our mission each and every day.

我還要祝賀並歡迎 Naftali 成為我們的新 CFO。你們中的許多人已經知道 Naf，但對於那些不知道的人，我相信你會喜歡和他一起工作。我們在皇家加勒比的使命一直並將繼續簡單而完全地專注於每天提供最好的假期體驗，並以負責任的方式這樣做。看到我們的團隊每天都在完成我們的使命，真是令人敬畏。

While 2021 was another challenging year for our company and the industry, it also marked our healthy return to sailing. In just a few short months and thanks to the incredible preparedness of our operating team and crew throughout the last 1.5 years, we have brought back more than 85% of our capacity into service and delivered extraordinary vacations and memories to approximately 1.3 million guests. I want to thank the hard-working people of the Royal Caribbean Group, both our crew and our shoreside employees, for their incredible efforts to bring back our fleet in such a short window and such a successful way. I am so proud and grateful for their efforts.

雖然 2021 年對我們公司和行業來說又是充滿挑戰的一年，但它也標誌著我們健康地回歸航行。在短短幾個月內，得益於我們的運營團隊和工作人員在過去 1.5 年中的出色準備，我們已將超過 85% 的運力重新投入使用，並為大約 130 萬客人提供了非凡的假期和回憶。我要感謝皇家加勒比海集團的辛勤工作人員，包括我們的船員和岸上員工，他們為在如此短的時間內以如此成功的方式恢復我們的船隊做出了令人難以置信的努力。我為他們的努力感到驕傲和感激。

I also want to thank our guests, travel partners, destination partners, suppliers, investors and financial partners for their steadfast support. As we navigate through this black swan event, we have focused intently on a successful healthy return to service, as you would expect. At the same time, we have been charting our course to get back to pre-COVID performance levels and beyond soonest. The combination of very strong secular and demographic trends, our leading brands, the most innovative and a growing fleet, our global sourcing footprint, a leading technology platform and the reshaping of our cost structure positions us exceptionally well to accelerate.

我還要感謝我們的客人、旅行合作夥伴、目的地合作夥伴、供應商、投資者和金融合作夥伴的堅定支持。正如您所期望的那樣，在我們度過這次黑天鵝事件時，我們專注於成功地健康地恢復服務。同時，我們一直在製定路線圖，以盡快恢復到 COVID 之前的性能水平甚至更高。非常強勁的長期和人口趨勢、我們的領先品牌、最具創新性和不斷增長的船隊、我們的全球採購足跡、領先的技術平台以及我們成本結構的重塑，使我們非常有能力加速發展。

Let me focus a moment on our healthy return to service. Since we resumed operations, our goal has been to making cruising one of the safest vacations anywhere in the world while providing an exceptional guest experience. We continue to demonstrate that in a very tangible way. As you heard me say, we have carried approximately 1.3 million guests since the restart, with about 2,500 guests testing positive for COVID-19, a positivity rate of 0.19%. This positivity rate is still a small fraction of what it is in society at large, and nearly all cases on board were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.

讓我專注於我們健康地恢復服務。自從我們恢復運營以來，我們的目標一直是使巡航成為世界上最安全的假期之一，同時提供卓越的賓客體驗。我們繼續以非常切實的方式證明這一點。正如你聽到我說的，自重啟以來，我們已經運送了大約 130 萬客人，其中大約 2,500 名客人的 COVID-19 檢測呈陽性，陽性率為 0.19%。這種陽性率仍然只是整個社會的一小部分，而且船上幾乎所有病例都沒有症狀或症狀輕微。

Our rigorous health and safety protocols with 100% vaccination rate among our crew and close to 100% vaccination rate among our guests provide a safe environment where we can fulfill our mission of delivering amazing vacations. And our guests are responding by providing record Net Promoter Scores for us, exceeding their expectations. A few weeks ago, the prescriptive CDC conditional sail order expired, demonstrating the agency's confidence in the overall effectiveness of the health and safety protocols of the cruise industry. Our own protocols continue to go above and beyond anything the framework provided and what consumers will find in any hospitality setting. We continue to engage with the CDC and other public health agencies as we look to adjust our COVID-19 risk mitigation measures in response to the changing nature of the virus.

我們嚴格的健康和安全協議規定，我們的工作人員接種率 100%，客人接種率接近 100%，這為我們提供了一個安全的環境，讓我們可以完成我們提供令人驚嘆的假期的使命。我們的客人通過為我們提供創紀錄的淨推薦值來做出回應，超出了他們的預期。幾週前，規定的 CDC 有條件航行令到期，表明該機構對郵輪行業健康和安全協議的整體有效性充滿信心。我們自己的協議繼續超越框架提供的任何內容以及消費者在任何酒店環境中會發現的內容。我們將繼續與 CDC 和其他公共衛生機構合作，因為我們希望調整我們的 COVID-19 風險緩解措施，以應對病毒不斷變化的性質。

Our healthy return to service plans anticipated twists and turns on our recovery path. We remain nimble in our approach adjusting to changes in the operating environment with a constant focus on our long-term strategy and success. As everyone is aware, the Omicron variant has impacted most parts of society as well as our operations. Since mid-December, we experienced an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID onboard our ships. The good news is, is that in the last several weeks, cases on board our ships have been declining rapidly, and we now have returned to exceptionally low pre-Omicron levels. In fact, over the last 7 days, we have averaged only a handful of positive guest cases per cruise.

我們的健康恢復服務計劃預期我們的恢復道路上會出現曲折。我們保持靈活的方法來適應運營環境的變化，並始終關注我們的長期戰略和成功。眾所周知，Omicron 變體已經影響了社會的大部分地區以及我們的運營。自 12 月中旬以來，我們發現船上新冠病毒檢測呈陽性的人數有所增加。好消息是，在過去的幾周里，我們船上的病例一直在迅速下降，現在我們已經回到了極低的前 Omicron 水平。事實上，在過去的 7 天裡，我們平均每次航行只有少數陽性客人病例。

With the declining cases, operational challenges are also abating, so while the variant is not done, it appears that the worst is behind us. The timing of Omicron was particularly painful as a typical wave booking period begins in early January. So we do expect it will weigh on our performance in Q1 and, to a lesser extent, in early Q2. With the peak in Omicron now seemingly behind us, we have seen meaningful and sequential improvement in the booking activity week-over-week since the beginning of the year. In fact, in the last week of January, bookings returned to pre-Omicron levels, and we expect demand recovery to accelerate as the variant subsides. With that in mind, we have extended our sales and marketing activities for a delayed and extended wave.

隨著病例的減少，運營挑戰也在減輕，因此雖然變體尚未完成，但似乎最糟糕的情況已經過去。 Omicron 的時間安排特別痛苦，因為典型的波浪預訂期從 1 月初開始。因此，我們確實預計它將影響我們在第一季度的表現，並在較小程度上影響第二季度初的表現。隨著 Omicron 的高峰現在似乎已經過去，我們看到自年初以來每週預訂活動的顯著且連續的改善。事實上，在 1 月的最後一周，預訂量回到了 Omicron 之前的水平，我們預計隨著變體的消退，需求復蘇將加速。考慮到這一點，我們延長了我們的銷售和營銷活動，以應對延遲和擴展的浪潮。

While Omicron created some short-term challenges and will likely delay our return to profitability by a few months, our recovery trajectory remains intact. We remain confident that we will have a strong spring and summer season with great demand for cruising, both domestically and internationally. The robust secular trends of experiences over things that has propelled our business in the past few years is now recovering towards pre-COVID levels. We have also seen a change in the mindset of consumers coming out of the pandemic with the desire to travel and reengage with the world being stronger than ever. In fact, the U.S. traveler organization research confirms that leisure travel will continue to increase at higher levels than business travel. All of this, coupled with consumer resilience and easing travel restrictions, provides tailwinds for our recovery.

儘管 Omicron 帶來了一些短期挑戰，並且可能會將我們恢復盈利的時間推遲幾個月，但我們的複蘇軌跡仍然完好無損。我們仍然相信，我們將有一個強勁的春季和夏季，國內和國際對巡航的需求都很大。過去幾年推動我們業務發展的事物的強勁長期經驗趨勢現在正在恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。我們還看到，從大流行中走出來的消費者心態發生了變化，他們比以往任何時候都更渴望旅行和重新融入世界。事實上，美國旅行者組織的研究證實，休閒旅行將繼續以高於商務旅行的水平增長。所有這一切，加上消費者的彈性和放寬的旅行限制，為我們的複蘇提供了順風。

After a storied 2020 and 2021, we are eager to move forward in this new year. As people are keen on taking a vacation, we are ready to make their vacation dreams come true in a healthy and safe environment. We expect 2022 will be a strong transitional year as we bring the rest of our fleet into operations and approach historical occupancy levels. We expect a net loss for the first half of 2022 due to the impact of Omicron and a return to profitability in the second half of the year.

在經歷了傳奇的 2020 年和 2021 年之後，我們渴望在新的一年繼續前進。由於人們熱衷於度假，我們已準備好在健康安全的環境中實現他們的假期夢想。我們預計 2022 年將是一個強勁的過渡年，因為我們將讓我們的其餘機隊投入運營並接近歷史入住率水平。我們預計 2022 年上半年受 Omicron 影響將出現淨虧損，下半年將恢復盈利。

During 2022, we look forward to welcoming 2 additional new ships, Wonder of the Seas for Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Beyond for Celebrity Cruises. These exciting new ships will deliver amazing vacations to our guests and join 6 other new vessels that have entered our fleet since 2020. This is a key pillar to support our recovery. New hardware is an important driver of quality demand, extraordinary customer experience and exceptional financial performance. And just as important, it improves our sustainability as these are innovative ships that are much more energy efficient.

2022 年，我們期待新增 2 艘新船，即皇家加勒比國際郵輪的海洋奇觀號和名人郵輪的超越名人號。這些令人興奮的新船將為我們的客人帶來美妙的假期，並加入自 2020 年以來進入我們船隊的其他 6 艘新船。這是支持我們復甦的關鍵支柱。新硬件是質量需求、非凡客戶體驗和卓越財務業績的重要推動力。同樣重要的是，它提高了我們的可持續性，因為這些創新型船舶更節能。

We remain focused on continuing to innovate our product and maintain our strong competitive advantage, setting the foundation for a strong recovery and long-term profitable growth. During the pandemic, we have had a relentless focus on reshaping our cost structure and rigorous capital allocation framework. We expect that the combination of new ships, growing yields and higher profitability will propel our financial performance and support our focus to return to pre-COVID financial metrics and beyond soonest.

我們仍然專注於繼續創新我們的產品並保持我們強大的競爭優勢，為強勁的複蘇和長期的盈利增長奠定基礎。在大流行期間，我們一直致力於重塑我們的成本結構和嚴格的資本分配框架。我們預計，新船、不斷增長的產量和更高的盈利能力相結合，將推動我們的財務業績，並支持我們盡快恢復到 COVID 之前的財務指標及以後的重點。

Corporate stewardship remains another key priority as we continue to progress across environmental, social and governance-focused areas. Climate change and reducing our emissions have been central to our environmental stewardship activities for decades. Last quarter, we announced our comprehensive decarbonization strategy and goals. We realize that the transition to net zero will not be easy, and to achieve our ambitions, we will rely on our culture of innovation as well as strong partnerships with governments, suppliers and shipyards to develop alternative and accessible fuels and technologies.

隨著我們繼續在以環境、社會和治理為重點的領域取得進展，企業管理仍然是另一個關鍵優先事項。幾十年來，氣候變化和減少排放一直是我們環境管理活動的核心。上個季度，我們宣布了全面的脫碳戰略和目標。我們意識到向淨零過渡並非易事，為了實現我們的雄心壯志，我們將依靠我們的創新文化以及與政府、供應商和造船廠的牢固夥伴關係來開發替代性和可獲取的燃料和技術。

Additionally, in the past few months, we were named an employer of choice by Forbes and Glassdoor. And last week, we earned a 100% score on the Human Rights Campaign Foundation Corporate Equality Index, which rates corporate policies and practices that relate to LGBTQ+ workplace equality. These are recognitions we're proud of and they reflect our commitment to our employees.

此外，在過去的幾個月裡，我們被福布斯和 Glassdoor 評為首選雇主。上週，我們在人權運動基金會企業平等指數中獲得了 100% 的分數，該指數對與 LGBTQ+ 工作場所平等相關的企業政策和實踐進行了評分。這些是我們引以為豪的認可，它們反映了我們對員工的承諾。

All of this tells you that our business model is incredibly strong, and we have a track record of growing revenue, earnings and cash flow. Our formula for success is unchanged: recover and grow yields, enhance our margins, profitability and ROIC. To that, we added returning our balance sheet to pre-COVID levels. We have the best brands in each of our segments, the most innovative fleet in the industry, exclusive destination experiences like Perfect Day at CocoCay, a nimble and effective global sourcing footprint, a leading technology platform and most of all, the very best team, both at sea and on land. With that winning formula, I am confident about the recovery, and I'm very excited about the future of Royal Caribbean Group. And with that, I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

所有這些都告訴您，我們的商業模式非常強大，而且我們擁有不斷增長的收入、收益和現金流的記錄。我們的成功公式沒有改變：恢復和增加產量，提高我們的利潤率、盈利能力和投資回報率。為此，我們添加了將資產負債表恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。我們擁有每個細分市場中最好的品牌，業內最具創新性的車隊，獨家目的地體驗，如 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day，靈活有效的全球採購足跡，領先的技術平台，最重要的是，最優秀的團隊，在海上和陸地上。有了這個制勝的公式，我對複蘇充滿信心，我對皇家加勒比集團的未來感到非常興奮。有了這個，我會把它交給 Naftali。納夫？

Thank you, Jason. Before I begin my remarks, I would like to share how energized I am to take on this Chief Financial Officer role. I will focus my energy on continuing the accelerated recovery and returning our performance metrics to pre-COVID levels as soon as possible while positioning the company for long-term success.

謝謝你，傑森。在我開始發言之前，我想分享一下我擔任這個首席財務官的角色是多麼的充滿活力。我將把精力集中在繼續加速復蘇，並儘快將我們的績效指標恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，同時將公司定位為長期成功。

I will now turn to discuss our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. This morning, we reported an adjusted net loss of $1.2 billion for the fourth quarter and $4.8 billion for the full year. It is important to note that Q4 results were better than our internal expectations, mainly due to continued strong onboard revenue performance and better cost management. The financial results for 2021 reflect the impact from the suspension of sailing in the first half of the year and the tremendous effort to resume cruise operations and accelerate the flywheel in the second half.

我現在將轉而討論我們 2021 年第四季度和全年的業績。今天上午，我們報告了第四季度和全年調整後的淨虧損 12 億美元和 48 億美元。值得注意的是，第四季度業績好於我們的內部預期，這主要是由於持續強勁的船上收入表現和更好的成本管理。 2021年的財務業績反映了上半年停航的影響，以及下半年恢復巡航運營和加速飛輪的巨大努力。

In the fourth quarter, we continued our return, bringing 12 more ships back into operations, building the load factors and restarting our sales and marketing efforts, all to position the company for a successful 2022. Load factors for the quarter were 65% on core itineraries with month-over-month improvements. We are incredibly pleased with the progress we have made in the fourth quarter. Our total load factors grew from 36% in Q3 to close to 60% in Q4. In addition, the continued strong onboard revenue contributed to a 10% increase in total gross revenue per passenger cruise day compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Cash flow from our operating ships turned positive in the fourth quarter.

在第四季度，我們繼續返回，使另外 12 艘船舶重新投入運營，建立載客率並重新啟動我們的銷售和營銷工作，所有這些都是為了讓公司在 2022 年取得成功。本季度的核心載客率為 65%逐月改進的行程。我們對第四季度取得的進展感到非常高興。我們的總載客率從第三季度的 36% 增長到第四季度的接近 60%。此外，與 2019 年第四季度相比，持續強勁的船上收入使每個乘客遊輪日的總收入增長了 10%。我們運營船舶的現金流在第四季度轉為正數。

Now I would like to discuss capacity and load factor expectations over the coming period. The Omicron variant caused short-term disruptions to the travel industry as well as our operations. As Jason just mentioned, our focus since we restarted operations has been to ensure the health and safety of our guests and crew, matching or exceeding guest vacation experience expectations and bringing the fleet up in a financially prudent way.

現在我想討論未來一段時間的容量和負載率預期。 Omicron 變體對旅遊業和我們的運營造成了短期干擾。正如 Jason 剛剛提到的，自我們重新開始運營以來，我們的重點一直是確保客人和船員的健康和安全，匹配或超出客人的度假體驗預期，並以財務審慎的方式提升船隊。

With that in mind, we made the decision to cancel several sailings in the first quarter. We plan to operate about 7.7 million APCDs in Q1 or approximately 95% of our planned capacity. We expect that operating ships in the first quarter will be cash flow positive. Our capacity will further increase at the end of the quarter, following the delivery of the incredible Wonder of the Seas. Wonder will be introduced to the U.S. market in March before heading to the Mediterranean for the summer season.

考慮到這一點，我們決定在第一季度取消幾次航行。我們計劃在第一季度運營約 770 萬台 APCD，約占我們計劃產能的 95%。我們預計第一季度運營船舶將產生正現金流。在交付令人難以置信的海洋奇觀之後，我們的產能將在本季度末進一步增加。 Wonder 將於 3 月進入美國市場，然後在夏季前往地中海。

Due to the impact from Omicron on near-term bookings and cancellations, we expect load factors of approximately 60% on core itineraries in Q1 with month-over-month improvement within the quarter. We also expect to bring the rest of our fleet back to service in time for the lucrative summer season. We expect our load factors to continue to steadily increase month-over-month and approach historical levels in the third quarter.

由於 Omicron 對近期預訂和取消的影響，我們預計第一季度核心行程的載客率約為 60%，並且在本季度內環比有所改善。我們還希望在利潤豐厚的夏季及時讓我們的其餘機隊恢復服務。我們預計我們的載客率將繼續逐月穩步增長，並在第三季度接近歷史水平。

While we offer cruises in the vast majority of our key destinations, we continue to closely monitor both China and Australia. We anticipate Australia to open for cruising for its summer season, our winter time. With respect to China, it remains closed for cruising, and we have redeployed the remaining 2 ships planned in 2022 to other key markets. We remain optimistic that we can capture long-term growth opportunities in the China market.

雖然我們在絕大多數主要目的地提供遊輪，但我們將繼續密切關注中國和澳大利亞。我們預計澳大利亞將在夏季即我們的冬季開放巡航。就中國而言，它仍然關閉巡航，我們已將 2022 年計劃的剩餘 2 艘船重新部署到其他主要市場。我們仍然樂觀地認為我們可以在中國市場抓住長期增長機會。

Shifting to our balance sheet. We ended the year with $3.5 billion in liquidity, excluding the $1 billion issuance we completed in early January. We have ample liquidity to allow us to continue our recovery trajectory. During 2021, we focused on managing and improving our balance sheet. We reestablished access to the unsecured debt markets and successfully refinanced $2.3 billion of secured or guaranteed high-coupon debt. Our plan is to continue with these balance sheet improvement efforts throughout 2022.

轉移到我們的資產負債表。年末我們擁有 35 億美元的流動性，不包括我們在 1 月初完成的 10 億美元的發行。我們擁有充足的流動性，使我們能夠繼續我們的複蘇軌跡。 2021 年，我們專注於管理和改善資產負債表。我們重新建立了進入無擔保債務市場的渠道，並成功為 23 億美元的有擔保或有擔保的高息債券再融資。我們的計劃是在整個 2022 年繼續進行這些資產負債表改進工作。

In early January, we issued $1 billion at 5 3/8% coupon, and we plan to use the proceeds to refinance near-term debt. In addition, we have taken and continue to take numerous actions to reshape our cost structure with a focus on further improving our leading pre-COVID margins. While these actions will improve our cost structure and margin profile, we do anticipate that inflationary pressures and some transitory costs related to our healthy return to service will weigh on this year's earnings.

1 月初，我們以 5 3/8% 的票面利率發行了 10 億美元，我們計劃將所得款項用於為近期債務再融資。此外，我們已經並繼續採取許多行動來重塑我們的成本結構，重點是進一步提高我們領先的 COVID 前利潤率。雖然這些行動將改善我們的成本結構和利潤率狀況，但我們確實預計通脹壓力和與我們健康恢復服務相關的一些暫時性成本將影響今年的收益。

Now I'll provide an update on the demand environment and our 2022 sailings. For the last several quarters, we have seen new bookings improve from 1 quarter to the next. Bookings in the fourth quarter continued this positive trajectory, culminating in our biggest-ever Black Friday and Cyber Weekend from the U.S. Bookings in the fourth quarter were up more than 75% compared to the third quarter. As we restarted our brand marketing programs in Q4, we generated strong demand to support the book of business for '22 and '23.

現在，我將提供有關需求環境和我們 2022 年航行的最新信息。在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到新的預訂量從一個季度到下一個季度都有所改善。第四季度的預訂量繼續保持這一積極趨勢，最終在我們有史以來最大的黑色星期五和美國網絡週末達到高潮。與第三季度相比，第四季度的預訂量增長了 75% 以上。隨著我們在第四季度重新啟動品牌營銷計劃，我們產生了強烈的需求來支持 '22 和 '23 的業務賬簿。

As the Omicron variant began spreading in December, we experienced slower booking activity and higher near-term cancellations over the holiday period as many guests were testing positive before their cruise. But from the beginning of the year, we have seen meaningful week-over-week improvement in booking activity for both the first and the second half of '22. Second half booking activity has been recovering at a faster pace.

隨著 Omicron 變體在 12 月開始傳播，我們在假期期間經歷了較慢的預訂活動和較高的近期取消，因為許多客人在航行前測試呈陽性。但從今年年初開始，我們看到 22 年上半年和下半年的預訂活動每週都有顯著改善。下半年預訂活動以更快的速度恢復。

In addition to that, we have seen a rapid improvement in cancellations over the same period. Similar to our experience with the Delta variant, as Omicron cases are beginning to decline, booking activity has begun to pick up. In fact, in the last week of January, bookings have returned to pre-Omicron levels. The U.K., which is further ahead on the Omicron curve, has been on that improvement trajectory for several weeks. From a cumulative booking standpoint, our book load factors for sailings in the second half of this year remain within historical ranges at higher prices, both with and without the impact of FCCs. Load factors in the first half are below historical ranges as expected but are aligned with our anticipated load factors.

除此之外，我們還看到同期取消的情況迅速改善。與我們使用 Delta 變體的經驗類似，隨著 Omicron 案例開始下降，預訂活動開始回升。事實上，在 1 月的最後一周，預訂量已恢復到 Omicron 之前的水平。在 Omicron 曲線上遙遙領先的英國，幾週來一直處於這種改善軌道上。從累積預訂的角度來看，無論有無 FCC 的影響，我們今年下半年的航行預訂載客率均保持在歷史範圍內，價格較高。上半年的負載率低於預期的歷史範圍，但與我們的預期負載率一致。

Our customer deposit balance as of December 31 was $3.2 billion, an improvement of about $400 million over the past quarter despite the quarter-over-quarter increase in cancellations related to Omicron and significant revenue recognition, both of which reduced the customer deposit balance. Our customer deposit balance is only 5% lower than it was at the end of December 2019, with the entire difference driven by the first quarter sailings where we have less capacity. Our customer deposit balance related to bookings for Q2 forward sailings is higher than at the same time in 2019. Approximately 32% of our customer deposit balance is related to future cruise credits. Of the FCCs, approximately 50% have been redeemed thus far.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的客戶存款餘額為 32 億美元，比上一季度增加了約 4 億美元，儘管與 Omicron 相關的取消訂單環比增加和顯著的收入確認減少了客戶存款餘額。我們的客戶存款餘額僅比 2019 年 12 月末低 5%，全部差異是由第一季度運力較少的航行造成的。我們與第二季度遠期航行預訂相關的客戶存款餘額高於 2019 年同期。我們大約 32% 的客戶存款餘額與未來的郵輪積分有關。到目前為止，大約 50% 的 FCC 已被贖回。

Lastly, turning to the outlook for 2022. Given the progress we have made ramping up operations and everything I said about the booking environment, the costs and the impact of the Omicron variant, we still expect to reach positive EBITDA and operating cash flow in late spring. We expect a net loss for the first half of 2022 and a profit for the second half of the year. With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for a question-and-answer session.

最後，談談 2022 年的展望。鑑於我們在擴大運營方面取得的進展以及我所說的關於預訂環境、成本和 Omicron 變體的影響的一切，我們仍然預計後期 EBITDA 和運營現金流將達到正數春天。我們預計2022年上半年淨虧損，下半年盈利。有了這個，我將要求我們的接線員打開電話進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Robin Farley of UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Wanted to ask about your booking comments. I think it was obviously understood and expected that new wave season volumes are lower than historic. But I think it's still positive to see that your historic load in the second half is still above. I think there had been some concern that maybe the historic load would have fallen below, given how slowly the first month of the wave is.

想詢問您的預訂意見。我認為很明顯，新一波季節的銷量低於歷史水平是被理解和預期的。但我認為看到你在下半年的歷史負荷仍然高於這個水平仍然是積極的。我認為考慮到浪潮的第一個月有多慢，我認為可能會低於歷史負荷。

I guess I wonder if you could give us a little bit of quantification on -- do you expect, even with the sort of maybe later start to wave because of the Omicron disruption, do you still expect load factors in the second half if we move at the rate we're going through the next month to still be ahead of historic -- or within historic ranges?

我想我想知道您是否可以給我們一些量化的信息-您是否期望，即使由於 Omicron 中斷而可能稍後開始波動，如果我們搬家，您是否仍然期望下半年的負載係數按照我們下個月的速度，仍然領先於歷史水平 - 還是在歷史範圍內？

Robin, I'll start off and, of course, good morning. Good to talk to you. I think the first point I would make is while we -- while Omicron certainly was impacting our bookings and impacting our cancellation, it really was focused on the first quarter and a little bit of the second quarter. We didn't really see too much of an impact in terms of demand as related for, call it, June on in the year. And I think that you just talk to the consumer psyche and just concern around Omicron in itself and the timing of all of that. So I think we remain confident in -- based on the booking activities that we've seen that the back half of the year is going to look like what we had expected it to, and that includes on our expectations on a load factor standpoint.

羅賓，我要開始了，當然，早上好。很高興和你談談。我想我要說的第一點是，雖然 Omicron 肯定會影響我們的預訂並影響我們的取消，但它確實專注於第一季度和第二季度的一小部分。我們並沒有真正看到與今年 6 月相關的需求影響太大。而且我認為您只是與消費者的心理交談，只關注 Omicron 本身以及所有這些的時間安排。因此，我認為我們仍然有信心 - 根據我們看到的預訂活動，今年下半年將看起來像我們預期的那樣，這包括我們對負載率的預期。

Okay, great. And I do have a follow-up, but I should have said congrats, by the way, to you, Naftali, both in your new roles. I should have started with that. Sorry. And then just for the follow-up, it's about FCCs. I also just wanted -- I didn't know if you had said 50% was redeemed or 15%. I just wanted to clarify. But the real question was that on FCCs, it seems like a fair amount, because I know people think about what that represents as a kind of a percent discount to booked price. But is it fair to say that a lot of your FCCs at this point are not the bonus FCCs that represent a discount but that are just dollar amounts that somebody rescheduled their cruise or canceled and moved to a later date? And so in other words, what you talk about as being FCC does not automatically mean that, that represents a discounted FCC? If you could kind of quantify that?

好，太棒了。我確實有後續行動，但順便說一句，我應該恭喜你，Naftali，你都擔任了新角色。我應該從那個開始的。對不起。然後只是為了後續行動，它是關於 FCC 的。我也只是想要——我不知道你是說 50% 被贖回還是 15%。我只是想澄清一下。但真正的問題是，在 FCC 上，這似乎是一個合理的數額，因為我知道人們認為這代表著對預訂價格的百分比折扣。但是公平地說，此時您的許多 FCC 並不是代表折扣的獎勵 FCC，而只是有人重新安排他們的航行或取消並移至以後的日期的美元金額？換句話說，你所說的 FCC 並不自動意味著，它代表了一個打折的 FCC？如果你能量化一下？

Yes, I think that's right. I think that most of the FCC application or what we call our Lift & Shift program, and then the balance of that would be the FCCs in which they have the 25% value to them. And I think that, that program in general, has been working relatively well. And for the most part, our guests, they want to go on their vacations. They want to typically go around the same time that they were planning on going, and they're just lifting and they're shifting that to periods of time that -- in the same zone of when they were planning on vacationing before, just a year later or a quarter later, et cetera.

是的，我認為這是正確的。我認為大部分 FCC 應用程序或我們所說的 Lift & Shift 程序，然後其餘的將是 FCC，它們對它們具有 25% 的價值。而且我認為，總的來說，該計劃一直運作良好。大多數情況下，我們的客人，他們想去度假。他們通常想在他們計劃去的同一時間去，他們只是在舉重，他們正在把它轉移到那個時間段——在他們之前計劃度假的同一區域，只是一個一年後或一個季度後，等等。

And Robin, it's Naftali. Just to answer your question, it is 5-0, 50%. And we're very pleased with that, and we've seen progress in the last quarter, both redemption as well as just new bookings.

還有羅賓，是納夫塔利。只是為了回答你的問題，它是 5-0、50%。我們對此感到非常滿意，我們在上個季度看到了進展，無論是贖回還是新預訂。

Your next question is from Steve Wieczynski of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So I'm going to start with a quasi-guidance question. I'm not sure you'll answer it or not, but I understand you're not giving guidance for the year. But last quarter, you talked about being earnings positive for the full year. Now you're saying first half still will be generating losses, back half of the year going positive. So I guess the question is, do you still think it's possible for the full year to wind up being positive even with all the variant headwinds that have occurred so far?

所以我將從一個準指導問題開始。我不確定你是否會回答，但我知道你沒有提供今年的指導。但上個季度，您談到全年盈利為正。現在你說上半年仍然會產生虧損，今年下半年將是積極的。所以我想問題是，即使到目前為止已經發生了所有不同的逆風，你仍然認為全年有可能最終是積極的嗎？

And then the second part of that question is did you guys contemplate or still contemplating, helping us think about the long-term prospects for this business over the long term, either through whether that's long-term guidance or targets or stuff like that?

然後這個問題的第二部分是你們是否考慮過或仍在考慮，幫助我們考慮這項業務的長期前景，無論是長期指導還是目標或類似的東西？

So on the first question, Steve, I would say that we're not an organization that gives up based off of an event like Omicron. So we are kind of taking all efforts to ensure that we maximize our profitability here each and every quarter and each and every year. Omicron certainly will weigh in here heavily on the first quarter and a little bit of the beginning of the second quarter. And a lot of it will be as bookings start to come in, how can we improve on the first quarter and the second quarter, and that will kind of dictate whether we're positive, negative on the earnings side.

所以關於第一個問題，史蒂夫，我想說我們不是一個基於像 Omicron 這樣的事件而放棄的組織。因此，我們正在盡一切努力確保我們在每個季度和每年都最大限度地提高我們的盈利能力。 Omicron 肯定會在第一季度和第二季度初的一點點在這裡發揮重要作用。其中很多將是隨著預訂量的增加，我們如何才能在第一季度和第二季度有所改善，這將決定我們在收益方面是積極的還是消極的。

But we're focused on it but there certainly has been pain. I mean, the cancellations of those 50-plus sailings weighs pretty heavily onto the first quarter on a profitability standpoint. So that's kind of the answer to question one. On question two, we are certainly looking past COVID. We believe we are past COVID in terms of it -- in terms of the overall impact on our business and we're focused on our healthy return to service. And the great -- as I said in my comments, this is a great business with great brands and great ships. And as we get our load factors up to historical levels and we start getting to predictable quarters and patterns, I do believe we will come out and provide long-term programs and metrics as it relates to the overall business. So I feel good about that but I think we're going to wait until we're in a little bit more of a predictable state and our quarters are predictable before providing that guidance.

但我們專注於它，但肯定有痛苦。我的意思是，從盈利能力的角度來看，這 50 多次航行的取消對第一季度造成了相當大的影響。這就是問題一的答案。在第二個問題上，我們肯定會超越 COVID。我們相信，就它而言，我們已經超越了 COVID——就對我們業務的整體影響而言，我們專注於健康地恢復服務。偉大的——正如我在評論中所說，這是一家擁有偉大品牌和偉大船隻的偉大企業。隨著我們的負載率達到歷史水平並且我們開始進入可預測的季度和模式，我相信我們會出來並提供與整體業務相關的長期計劃和指標。所以我對此感覺很好，但我認為我們要等到我們處於可預測的狀態並且我們的季度是可預測的，然後再提供該指導。

Okay, got you. And then the second question, how do you guys think about changing COVID mandates on board? And I guess what I mean by that is, I assume there are folks out there that still don't want to cruise either because of testing or mask mandates and are waiting for those to be removed or eliminated. So what are you guys watching or what do you think will give you the confidence to start removing some of those mandates? And then what do you think that would ultimately do to bookings and demand?

好的，明白了。然後是第二個問題，你們如何看待改變船上的 COVID 指令？而且我想我的意思是，我假設有些人仍然不想因為測試或口罩要求而巡航，並且正在等待那些被刪除或消除的人。那麼你們在看什麼，或者你認為什麼會讓你有信心開始取消其中一些任務？然後你認為這最終會對預訂和需求產生什麼影響？

Steve, it's Michael. Yes, I mean, obviously, that's -- it's a consideration in terms of the protocols that we have in place and how the customer perceives that. I mean, in many ways, the customer is perceived as a positive during the time of COVID. But obviously, I think we believe and what we see now is that many destinations and countries are beginning to ease some of these restrictions. And the belief is that we're going to start moving to a new normal.

史蒂夫，是邁克爾。是的，我的意思是，很明顯，這是考慮到我們現有的協議以及客戶如何看待它。我的意思是，在許多方面，客戶在 COVID 期間被認為是積極的。但顯然，我認為我們相信並且我們現在看到的是，許多目的地和國家開始放寬其中的一些限制。人們相信我們將開始走向新常態。

And we've seen now with the U.K., for example, where Brits returning to the U.K. don't require testing. There's effectively almost no protocols for them to return home. I think last week also, Denmark and Sweden are following the same kind of path, and we believe that we'll see more and more of this over the coming weeks. Certainly, we see now with Omicron that the decrease in positivity is really significant, not only in the U.S. in certain states but also onboard of our ships. And we believe that we're going to move into a much more positive environment.

例如，我們現在已經看到英國人返回英國不需要測試。實際上幾乎沒有讓他們回家的協議。我認為上周丹麥和瑞典也在走同樣的道路，我們相信在未來幾週我們會看到越來越多的這種情況。當然，我們現在通過 Omicron 看到，積極性的下降非常顯著，不僅在美國的某些州，而且在我們的船上。我們相信我們將進入一個更加積極的環境。

I think what we'll see is as we get into that environment, we'll start, again, working with the CDC. We'll start removing many of the protocols that exist today, and it will become easier and simpler for our customers. Just as a point of reference, around 10 million customers visit our Royal Caribbean International website every month, and around 400,000 or so visit our Healthy Sail section of that. And you can see as people's anxiety either raises or decreases, then obviously, that number raises and decreases.

我認為我們將看到的是，當我們進入那個環境時，我們將再次開始與 CDC 合作。我們將開始刪除當今存在的許多協議，這對我們的客戶來說將變得更加容易和簡單。作為參考，每月約有 1000 萬客戶訪問我們的皇家加勒比國際網站，大約有 400,000 人訪問我們的健康航行部分。你可以看到人們的焦慮要么增加要么減少，然後很明顯，這個數字增加和減少。

So we're feeling quite positive about where we're going with this. We also believe that in the not-too-distant future, the CDC Level 4 will be downgraded to Level 3, and I think that will also be another positive step in the right direction.

因此，我們對未來的發展方向感到非常積極。我們也相信在不遠的將來，CDC Level 4 會降級到 Level 3，我認為這也將是朝著正確方向邁出的又一積極一步。

Yes. And Steve, I'll just add, I mean, which as you know this because we say it quite frequently, the health and safety of our guests and our crew are our #1 priority. So a lot of this is we're following the science and the protocols that we have in place are well beyond what has been asked upon by the CDC and the CSO or by others. So we're following the science and we're -- based off of that, we're making changes to our protocols, again, to kind of help ensure that our guests and our crew are safe at all times.

是的。史蒂夫，我要補充一點，我的意思是，正如你所知道的，因為我們經常這麼說，我們的客人和船員的健康和安全是我們的第一要務。因此，其中很多是我們遵循的科學和我們現有的協議遠遠超出了 CDC 和 CSO 或其他人的要求。因此，我們遵循科學，基於此，我們再次更改我們的協議，以幫助確保我們的客人和我們的工作人員始終安全。

Your next question is from Andrew Didora of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

Your marketing and G&A spend had record levels at record levels in 4Q. We clearly knew your marketing spend was going to be higher, given the restart. But when we think about the Omicron impact and sort of the delay we've seen here, does that mean these costs will stay elevated in the first half of 2022? Any color? Can -- is there any color you can provide just in terms of the cadence there, I think, would be helpful.

您的營銷和 G&A 支出在第四季度創下歷史新高。我們清楚地知道，考慮到重啟，您的營銷支出會更高。但是，當我們考慮到 Omicron 的影響和我們在這裡看到的某種延遲時，這是否意味著這些成本將在 2022 年上半年保持高位？任何顏色？可以 - 我認為，僅就節奏而言，您是否可以提供任何顏色，這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Andrew. So as you noted, yes, we did, after quite a while, started our brand marketing efforts in Q4 and that's why you see that elevated. We've seen very good receptivity to those and generated really strong demand that cultivated in the bookings we've seen. And as Omicron started spreading, we've really thought thoughtfully about how we're going to spend the sales and marketing. Also, we are within the typical wave season so we are thinking about that, and we will continue to adjust. We will eventually go back to what you would think as a more of a historical range.

謝謝，安德魯。因此，正如您所指出的，是的，我們確實在很長一段時間後在第四季度開始了我們的品牌營銷工作，這就是您看到這種提升的原因。我們已經看到對這些的接受度非常好，並產生了非常強勁的需求，這在我們所看到的預訂中得到了培養。隨著 Omicron 開始傳播，我們真的深思熟慮地考慮了我們將如何花費銷售和營銷。此外，我們處於典型的波浪季節，所以我們正在考慮這一點，我們將繼續調整。我們最終會回到你認為更像是一個歷史範圍的地方。

I think that's a key point. Our behavior in terms of our marketing activities and so forth as well as how we're going to market is actually very similar to how we were pre-COVID. And that's kind of what you -- that kind of that pattern and tempo is what you should be kind of thinking about as you are considering your modeling and so forth. Just being mindful, we have more capacity than we did in 2019. But I would just kind of make that point that you should expect us to kind of return to kind of typical behavior.

我認為這是一個關鍵點。我們在營銷活動等方面的行為以及我們如何進入市場實際上與我們在 COVID 之前的行為非常相似。這就是你在考慮建模等時應該考慮的那種模式和節奏。請注意，我們的產能比 2019 年要多。但我想說的是，你應該期待我們回歸到典型的行為。

Okay, got it. And then my follow-up question, I certainly appreciate you wanting to wait to give long-term guidance until there's just a bit more clarity on the revenue side. I would think you have a little bit more -- kind of a little bit more clarity on your cost situation, particularly as all your ships kind of return to service here. So I know there are puts and -- there have been some puts and takes during the pandemic in terms of taking costs out of the system, then there's just general inflation in the market. Can you help us think about like kind of where your unit cost ex fuel could be relative to 2019 as you begin to get back to the full utilization of your fleet?

好，知道了。然後是我的後續問題，我當然感謝您希望等待提供長期指導，直到收入方面更加清晰。我認為你有更多——更清楚你的成本情況，特別是當你所有的船都在這裡恢復服務時。所以我知道有看跌期權，而且在大流行期間有一些看跌期權，就從系統中扣除成本而言，市場上只是普遍的通貨膨脹。當您開始恢復機隊的充分利用時，您能否幫助我們考慮一下您的單位成本（不含燃料）相對於 2019 年的水平？

Well, I think what -- I'll just start off and Naf can certainly jump in here. Our expectation -- as you start considering the transitory costs and -- which will evaporate here, we were hoping here in 2022, the efforts we've made around cost is for our cost per APCD to get more efficient, for us to gain more margin here over time.

好吧，我想什麼--我就開始吧，Naf 當然可以跳到這裡。我們的期望——當你開始考慮暫時性成本時——這將在這裡消失，我們希望在 2022 年，我們圍繞成本所做的努力是為了讓每個 APCD 的成本變得更有效率，讓我們獲得更多隨著時間的推移，這裡的保證金。

So a lot of the things that you're -- as you look at our cost per quarter and saying, where are these cost savings? A lot of that is being absorbed by short-term transitory costs and also being absorbed by some of the -- what we believe to be some of the short-term inflationary elements and food as an example that we think we'll be able to effectively manage.

所以你的很多事情 - 當你看到我們每季度的成本並說，這些成本節省在哪裡？其中很大一部分被短期暫時性成本所吸收，也被一些——我們認為是一些短期通脹因素和食品作為我們認為我們能夠做到的例子——所吸收有效管理。

Yes. And just to add to that, we also have 6 new ships that have joined the fleet since 2019 in addition to the cost focus that we've had in reshaping our structure as we had in the last couple of years. So as the fleet comes back and the load factors build up, we are very well positioned to perform and improve margins.

是的。除此之外，自 2019 年以來，我們還有 6 艘新船加入了船隊，此外，我們還像過去幾年一樣在重塑結構方面關注成本。因此，隨著機隊的恢復和載客率的增加，我們已經做好了執行和提高利潤率的準備。

Sorry, just one last follow-up there. So do you think your longer-term kind of nonfuel unit costs can get back to pre-pandemic levels?

抱歉，只有最後一次跟進。那麼，您認為您的長期非燃料單位成本可以恢復到大流行前的水平嗎？

We do.

我們的確是。

We do, yes.

我們這樣做，是的。

Your next question is from Ben Chaiken of Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

You guys talked about load factors being in line with pre-COVID, I think third quarter of '22. Just to pick that apart, did you say in 3Q, you'd reach normal or 3Q for the quarter? I know this is like a little bit in the way -- or 3Q should be normal? And then just one follow-up.

你們談到負載係數與 COVID 之前一致，我認為是 22 年第三季度。只是為了區分，您是否在第三季度說過，您將在本季度達到正常或第三季度？我知道這有點礙事——或者 3Q 應該是正常的？然後只是一個後續行動。

In Q3.

在第三季度。

Okay. And then I guess, just with that in mind, like what -- can you help us with the thought process or data points you're looking at to make you comfortable in that assumption? Is it simply the pace of bookings? Is there any way to approximate like how booked you are currently on a percentage basis for 3Q sailings for example?

好的。然後我想，考慮到這一點，你能幫助我們處理你正在尋找的思維過程或數據點，讓你對這個假設感到滿意嗎？僅僅是預訂的速度嗎？例如，有什麼方法可以估計您目前在 3Q 航行的百分比基礎上的預訂量？

Yes. Well, obviously, we know those numbers very closely, but it's not something that we typically or that we're going to be guiding on at this point. But what brings us the confidence and whether it was Naf's commentary around the customer deposits in the back half of the year, especially for Q3 relative to 2019, the booking activities that we've seen is what provides us confidence that we're going to return to those historical load factors. So it's not based off of hope, it's based off of the patterns that we're seeing today that is our best perspective on the patterns that are going to continue on.

是的。好吧，顯然，我們非常了解這些數字，但這不是我們通常或我們現在將要指導的事情。但是，是什麼給我們帶來了信心，無論是 Naf 對下半年客戶存款的評論，尤其是相對於 2019 年的第三季度，我們所看到的預訂活動讓我們相信我們將返回那些歷史負載因子。所以它不是基於希望，而是基於我們今天看到的模式，這是我們對將繼續存在的模式的最佳視角。

That's really helpful. And then just one more on onboard spend, which has been particularly strong. Is this -- do you think part of this has to do with like the ships having lower occupancy so there's more opportunities to spend and not wait in line? I'm kind of making that up. Or is it some pent-up demand? Or is it a change in how people are booking packages? I guess, could you just help us think about how you guys view the strength and how it should persist in the back half of '22?

這真的很有幫助。然後再增加一項機上支出，這一點特別強勁。這是 - 你認為部分原因是因為船隻的佔用率較低，因此有更多的消費機會而不是排隊等候嗎？我有點彌補。還是某種被壓抑的需求？還是人們預訂套餐的方式發生了變化？我想，你能不能幫我們想想你們如何看待這種力量，以及它應該如何在 22 年下半年持續下去？

Ben, it's Michael. I wish we knew. I can tell you that we've been absolutely delighted and, I mean, initially very surprised by the onboard spend. But it's kind of -- I think when we started operations out of the U.S. back in July, we were initially just shocked. It was really, really positive. And it's just continued.

本，是邁克爾。我希望我們知道。我可以告訴你，我們非常高興，我的意思是，最初對機上支出感到非常驚訝。但這有點——我認為當我們在 7 月份開始在美國以外的地區開展業務時，我們最初只是感到震驚。這真的非常非常積極。它只是繼續。

So I think it's -- you're probably not far wrong that I think lower load factors created a different kind of environment that helped people spend more. But we've seen it across the board in nearly every single category where people are just simply spending more in every single revenue stream. We also are really pleased with what we've seen with our investment in the pre-cruise technology that's really started to come online over the past 12 months. And our pre-cruise penetration is significantly higher than it's ever been before.

所以我認為——我認為較低的負載因素創造了一種幫助人們消費更多的不同類型的環境，你可能並沒有大錯特錯。但我們幾乎在每一個單一類別中都看到了這一點，人們只是在每一個收入流中花費更多。我們也對我們對過去 12 個月真正開始上線的巡航前技術的投資所看到的結果感到非常滿意。而且我們的巡航前滲透率比以往任何時候都高得多。

So we're in a very positive environment. We know back in '20 and '21, the savings rate was significantly higher and credit card debt was much lower. So we do think that people are happy. We've seen Net Promoter Score on all of our ships and brands being at record highs. So we've got a lot of happy customers in that happy frame of mind. They're opening up their wallets and they're spending literally all over the place. So we're very pleased with what we're seeing.

所以我們處於一個非常積極的環境中。我們知道，在 20 年和 21 年，儲蓄率明顯更高，而信用卡債務則低得多。所以我們確實認為人們是快樂的。我們已經看到我們所有船舶和品牌的淨推薦值均創歷史新高。因此，在這種快樂的心態下，我們有很多快樂的客戶。他們打開錢包，到處花錢。所以我們對我們所看到的感到非常滿意。

Yes. And I think just to add a little bit more color on to it, but when Michael talks about categories, I think it's in 2 dimensions. When you look whether it's the consumer that is booking the inside stateroom or the consumer that's booking the Ultimate Family Suite, as an example, you're seeing them all over-indexed on their historical spend by quite a bit.

是的。我想只是給它添加一點顏色，但是當邁克爾談到類別時，我認為它是二維的。例如，當您查看預訂內部客艙的消費者還是預訂終極家庭套房的消費者時，您會發現他們的歷史支出都被高估了很多。

And then the other dimension of the category is by area. Effectively, every revenue area, whether that's spa, whether that's gift shop, whether that's casino, F&B and so forth is just outperforming significantly. I don't know how much of it's volume, how much of it's mix, how much of it is just the consumer with more money in their pocket, how much of it is just roughly chasing experiences, and as part of those experiences are spending money as well on our ships.

然後類別的另一個維度是按區域。實際上，每個收入領域，無論是水療中心、禮品店、賭場、餐飲等，都表現出色。我不知道它的數量有多少，有多少是混合的，有多少只是口袋裡有更多錢的消費者，有多少只是粗略地追逐體驗，而這些體驗的一部分是花費我們的船上也有錢。

I guess, just to clarify, it sounds like you guys are giving either more or a better opportunity to book that stuff prior to getting on the ship. Is that a fair -- and you said pre-cruise penetration. Does that mean like offering them opportunities to book spa and all that -- the items you listed before they get on board?

我想，為了澄清一下，聽起來你們在上船之前給了更多或更好的機會來預訂這些東西。這是一個公平的 - 你說的巡航前滲透。這是否意味著讓他們有機會預訂水療中心和所有這些——在他們上船之前列出的項目？

Yes, that's right, Ben. I mean, the level of sophistication of our pre-cruise software and our ability to market directly to customers has improved quite a lot over the past year or so. So I think that does play a key role in this.

是的，沒錯，本。我的意思是，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們的巡航前軟件的複雜程度和我們直接向客戶推銷的能力有了很大的提高。所以我認為這確實在其中發揮了關鍵作用。

Yes. And Ben, as you know, from following us for some time, we had talked about pre-COVID that we were replacing our pre-cruise or our e-commerce platform for our onboard spend, which not only includes it being a lot easier to conduct and book business with us but also our ability to yield manage it and so forth. And so that's definitely been an area where we have continued to invest under these very difficult times to prepare ourselves for again, another opportunity for margin improvement.

是的。 Ben，如您所知，在關注我們一段時間後，我們談到了 COVID 之前我們正在取代我們的郵輪前或我們的電子商務平台來進行船上消費，這不僅包括它更容易與我們開展和預訂業務，以及我們的收益管理能力等等。因此，這絕對是我們在這些非常困難的時期繼續投資的領域，以再次為提高利潤率的機會做好準備。

And just one final point on this wonderful piece of good news. As a rule of thumb, every $1 of pre-cruise spend is worth an incremental $0.50 of onboard spend, and that's pretty much a rule of thumb that's been true for quite some time.

最後一點是關於這個好消息的最後一點。根據經驗，每 1 美元的遊輪前支出都值得增加 0.50 美元的船上支出，這在相當長的一段時間內一直是正確的經驗法則。

Your next question is from Jaime Katz of Morningstar.

您的下一個問題來自晨星的 Jaime Katz。

I have a couple of bigger picture questions for you guys. First, can you unpack any of the supply chain constraints you're seeing? I know in the past, you had talked about sourcing different food items from different places and whether or not that's easing or still problematic?

我有幾個更大的問題要問你們。首先，你能解開你所看到的任何供應鏈限制嗎？我知道在過去，您曾談到從不同的地方採購不同的食品，這是否會緩解或仍然存在問題？

Yes, sure. So our 2 main areas that inflation really impacts us is food and it's fuel. Obviously, in the food and other things that we have, we have on the shipping side some costs with our shipping lanes and so forth. But for the most part, we have seen the cost of these items now begin to come down somewhat as we had anticipated and also what our suppliers had anticipated.

是的，當然。因此，通貨膨脹真正影響我們的兩個主要領域是食物和燃料。顯然，在我們擁有的食物和其他東西中，我們在運輸方面需要我們的航道等一些成本。但在大多數情況下，我們已經看到這些項目的成本現在開始有所下降，正如我們所預期的那樣，也是我們的供應商所預期的。

It's not back at all to kind of pre-COVID or 2020 levels but it is definitely beginning to move in the right direction here, which aligns very well because we have a lot of longer-term fixed contracts on a lot of our commodities. And so we've been patient to update those until we start to see a change in those patterns, which we've been seeing.

它根本沒有回到 COVID 之前或 2020 年的水平，但它肯定開始朝著正確的方向發展，這非常吻合，因為我們在很多商品上都有很多長期固定合同。所以我們一直耐心地更新這些，直到我們開始看到這些模式發生變化，我們已經看到了。

Okay. And then can we talk about China a little bit? I'm curious what you guys think the road to reopening looks like. Are there certain hurdles we need to clear? And then maybe what has that opportunity set changed to become now that Genting Hong Kong is a bit in flux?

好的。然後我們能談談中國嗎？我很好奇你們認為重新開放的道路是什麼樣的。我們需要清除某些障礙嗎？那麼，現在雲頂香港有點不穩定，這個機會可能會變成什麼？

Yes, Jaime, it's Michael. It's a great question. It's been very much in our thoughts, particularly as it relates to Genting and what's happening there. I mean, obviously, we see opportunity. China for us has been a long journey. We've had our ups and downs. We've had some incredibly productive and wonderful years and we've had some equally challenging years. And true to form, it seems to stay on the same path.

是的，詹姆，是邁克爾。這是一個很好的問題。這一直在我們的腦海中，尤其是與雲頂以及那裡正在發生的事情有關。我的意思是，顯然，我們看到了機會。中國對我們來說是一段漫長的旅程。我們經歷了起起落落。我們度過了一些令人難以置信的富有成效和美好的歲月，我們也度過了同樣具有挑戰性的歲月。和形式一樣，它似乎保持在同一條路上。

So we've -- we're waiting. There's a belief that after the Olympics are behind us, that there will be more positive news coming out of China. One of the positive things that has happened is, obviously, we redeployed our capacity out of the China market some time ago. And of course, one of the ships that we redeployed was Wonder of the Seas, which is our latest newest Oasis-class ship. And we put the Wonder of the Seas both out of the American market and into Europe in the summer, and the demand and the response to Wonder of the Seas has been incredibly strong. And we've been actually delighted with what we've seen in terms of how Wonder has been selling both in the European markets and in the American market.

所以我們 - 我們正在等待。人們相信，奧運會結束後，中國會傳來更多積極的消息。顯然，已經發生的一件積極的事情是，我們不久前將我們的產能重新部署到了中國市場之外。當然，我們重新部署的其中一艘船是海洋奇觀號，這是我們最新的最新綠洲級船。我們在夏天將海洋奇觀從美國市場推出到歐洲市場，對海洋奇觀的需求和反響非常強烈。事實上，我們對 Wonder 在歐洲市場和美國市場的銷售情況感到非常高興。

So there has been a silver lining to our redeployment efforts out of the China market. I think our long-term perspective of China is we're in China and we're going to make China work, and we see a huge amount of upside and opportunity. I think Genting exiting the stage is, again, an opportunity for us. And our teams in Asia are already planning and leveraging what we think could be those opportunities.

因此，我們從中國市場重新部署的努力有一線希望。我認為我們對中國的長期看法是我們在中國，我們將使中國發揮作用，我們看到了巨大的上升空間和機遇。我認為雲頂退出舞台再次對我們來說是一個機會。我們在亞洲的團隊已經在計劃和利用我們認為可能是這些機會的機會。

But our appetite for the opportunity has not shifted. We think China is always going to be a very important part of our strategic portfolio, and we are going to continue our journey as soon as the news starts to become more positive, which at some point, it does have to become more positive.

但我們對機會的興趣並沒有改變。我們認為中國將始終是我們戰略組合中非常重要的一部分，一旦新聞開始變得更加積極，我們將繼續我們的旅程，在某些時候，它確實必須變得更加積極。

Your next question is from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Grambling。

Congrats, Jason and Naftali on the roles. Maybe following up on Steve's earlier question on the longer-term earnings potential. As we look back to 2019, can you just remind us of some of the big exogenous impacts and/or factors that may have hit the headline earning number as we contemplate a base to build off of in a normalized environment?

恭喜 Jason 和 Naftali 擔任這些角色。也許會跟進史蒂夫早些時候關於長期盈利潛力的問題。當我們回顧 2019 年時，當我們考慮在正常化環境中建立基礎時，您能否提醒我們一些可能影響頭條收入數字的重大外生影響和/或因素？

From memory, Steve, I don't think there were a lot of large elements that impacted 2019. I mean, we did have a little bit of a write-off with Grand Bahama Shipyard and impact from some sailings due to the Grand Bahama Shipyard incident. But besides that, there weren't a lot of one-offs that would have impacted 2019. If anything, it would have helped 2019 relative to our final net income number.

根據記憶，史蒂夫，我不認為有很多大的因素影響了 2019 年。我的意思是，我們確實對大巴哈馬造船廠進行了一些核銷，並且由於大巴哈馬造船廠而受到一些航行的影響事件。但除此之外，不會有很多一次性的事情會影響 2019 年。如果有的話，相對於我們的最終淨收入數字，它會對 2019 年有所幫助。

Got it. And then one of the other questions we get is just really around any change in terms of new-to-cruise versus kind of the core cruise customer. Is there any color you can provide on either how booking trends are evolving for the new-to-cruise passenger versus core customer? And when you look at what happened with cancellations, anything you can discern from the type of customers who are canceling?

知道了。然後我們得到的其他問題之一實際上是關於新郵輪與核心郵輪客戶的任何變化。對於新郵輪乘客與核心客戶的預訂趨勢如何演變，您是否可以提供任何顏色？當您查看取消的情況時，您可以從取消的客戶類型中看出什麼？

Steve, it's Michael. We -- a good kind of proxy really was when we came out of Delta, we saw week by week -- in fact, what we're seeing now is almost exactly the same as what we saw when we came out of Delta, which is as we went into it, bookings dropped and anxiety was increased from customers. As we started to come out of Delta, bookings started to return and week by week, month by month, those bookings really started to take off.

史蒂夫，是邁克爾。我們——一個很好的代理真的是當我們從三角洲出來時，我們每週都看到——事實上，我們現在看到的幾乎和我們從三角洲出來時看到的一樣，當我們進入它時，預訂量下降了，客戶的焦慮增加了。當我們開始離開達美航空時，預訂量開始逐週、逐月回歸，這些預訂量真正開始起飛。

And as we moved into the fourth quarter of last year, our bookings started to exceed 2019 levels, both in volume and rate, and it was clear that everybody was in a vacation mode. As it relates to new-to-cruise and loyalty, loyalty certainly led the way and we've seen that. But new-to-cruise lagged, I would say, 4 to 6 weeks when we look at our data. And again, I'm talking about when we came out of Delta. Loyalty was, at the beginning, skewed heavily and then new-to-cruise started to jump back in and then it started to even out back to normal levels.

隨著我們進入去年第四季度，我們的預訂量和預訂率都開始超過 2019 年的水平，很明顯每個人都處於度假模式。由於它與新郵輪和忠誠度有關，忠誠度無疑是引領潮流的，我們已經看到了這一點。但是當我們查看我們的數據時，我會說，新遊輪滯後了 4 到 6 週。再說一次，我說的是我們從三角洲出來的時候。忠誠度一開始嚴重傾斜，然後新遊輪開始回升，然後開始平穩回到正常水平。

The other consideration is the product that we have in place for new-to-cruise and particularly for the Royal brand out of the American market. We've got great new hardware, new products. We've, of course, got a lot of short product, which is very appealing to new-to-cruise, and we've got Perfect Day, which is in pristine condition and is -- as we know, an incredibly popular destination, and that already is generating significant demand with a premium with new-to-cruise.

另一個考慮因素是我們為新郵輪，特別是美國市場之外的皇家品牌而準備的產品。我們有很棒的新硬件，新產品。當然，我們有很多短產品，這對新遊輪非常有吸引力，我們有 Perfect Day，它處於原始狀態，並且 - 正如我們所知，它是一個非常受歡迎的目的地，而這已經產生了巨大的需求，而且新郵輪的溢價。

So our view is, is that new-to-cruise is lagging but it's coming back, and we feel that's exactly what's going to happen now as we come out of this latest variant.

所以我們的觀點是，新郵輪雖然滯後，但它又回來了，我們認為這正是我們從這個最新變體中出來時將會發生的事情。

Yes. And just to -- on your second part of your question in terms of the cancellation trends, this one's an easier one and an intuitive one. The majority of the people canceling were people who either tested positive for COVID before getting on sailing or somebody in their family who was traveling with them tested positive for COVID. And that led the vast majority of the cancellation activity and we did see some of our customers shift their bookings from late December, early January into future periods, but that's more or less the story around the consumer canceling.

是的。就取消趨勢而言，就您的問題的第二部分而言，這是一個更簡單且直觀的問題。大多數取消的人要么是在啟航前對 COVID 檢測呈陽性的人，要么是與他們一起旅行的家人的 COVID 檢測呈陽性。這導致了絕大多數取消活動，我們確實看到我們的一些客戶將他們的預訂從 12 月底、1 月初轉移到未來的時期，但這或多或少是圍繞消費者取消的故事。

That's helpful. Maybe this is more of a housekeeping question, if I can slip it in. And then you may have had some of this in the press release, but can you give us a little more detail on the CapEx spend kind of split between maintenance and new ships? And maybe not even just this year, but as we think towards next year, if you could provide some initial color.

這很有幫助。也許這更像是一個家務問題，如果我能把它塞進去的話。然後你可能在新聞稿中已經有了一些這樣的內容，但是你能否給我們提供更多關於資本支出支出在維護和新之間的分配的細節船？甚至可能不僅僅是今年，而是我們對明年的想法，如果你能提供一些初始顏色。

Yes, sure. So as we said in the release, we expect this year to have roughly $3.1 billion of capital expenditures. Remember that we are taking 2 deliveries. We already took one, Wonder of the Seas, and the other one is Celebrity Beyond. And we also have some progress payments towards future deliveries. So those are the majority of our -- significant part of that number.

是的，當然。因此，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們預計今年將有大約 31 億美元的資本支出。請記住，我們正在接受 2 次交貨。我們已經拿了一個，海洋奇觀，另一個是超越名人。我們還為未來的交付支付了一些進度款。所以這些是我們的大部分 - 這個數字的重要部分。

And we've, as you know, been really thoughtful and really disciplined about how we invest in capital and making sure throughout that, on one hand, we maintain financial stability, but on the other hand, we also have -- we invest in the future as -- in the years to come. So you should expect that a lot of it is just newbuild and the ships and that will be for this year.

正如你所知，我們在如何投資資本方面非常周到和自律，並確保在整個過程中，一方面，我們保持金融穩定，但另一方面，我們也有——我們投資於未來——在未來的歲月裡。因此，您應該期望其中很多只是新建和船舶，而這將是今年的。

And Steve, just as a reminder, which I know you know this, but all the newbuilds, whether the one we just took delivery of or beyond that we'll take delivery of as well as in the future, all have committed financing to them.

史蒂夫，作為一個提醒，我知道你知道這一點，但所有的新造船，無論是我們剛剛交付的還是未來我們將要交付的，都已承諾向他們提供資金.

Your next question is from Fred Wightman of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

I was hoping you could maybe just summarize sort of the big bullet point differences between Omicron and Delta so far, whether that's sort of peak-to-trough booking disruptions that you saw, whether that's the speed of the recovery and just sort of how that informs your expectations for any future variants that come down the pipeline.

我希望你能總結一下到目前為止 Omicron 和 Delta 之間的主要區別，無論是你看到的從高峰到低谷的預訂中斷，是否是恢復的速度，以及如何告知您對管道中的任何未來變體的期望。

I think the big difference between Delta and Omicron was really the operational impact to us. I mean, just like everybody is experiencing it spread like wildfire, which our protocols and our ability to manage the situation, I think, was exceptional. I mean, our teams did an exceptional job managing it. So I think it was more of an operational issue.

我認為 Delta 和 Omicron 之間的最大區別實際上是對我們的運營影響。我的意思是，就像每個人都在經歷它像野火一樣蔓延，我認為我們的協議和我們管理局勢的能力非常出色。我的意思是，我們的團隊在管理它方面做得非常出色。所以我認為這更多的是一個操作問題。

I think what we saw as it relates to -- on the bookings side, as Michael said, a similar pause and then we're seeing a similar recovery coming out of it. I would also just add that, I think Omicron had a little bit more of an impact on shorter term or closer in than Delta did, and Delta was -- they'll spend more over a couple of quarters in terms of bookings while Omicron was really more focused on upcoming sailings first quarter.

我認為我們所看到的相關 - 正如邁克爾所說，在預訂方面，類似的暫停，然後我們看到類似的複蘇出現。我還要補充一點，我認為 Omicron 對短期或更近的影響比達美航空的影響要大一些，而達美航空 - 他們將在預訂方面花費更多，而 Omicron 是真的更專注於即將到來的第一季度航行。

I have to add just one point to this on Omicron versus Delta. Omicron certainly was fast and it did sweep through the fleet. Interestingly, all of the protocols, as Jason mentioned, that we worked on with the CDC were incredibly effective. And the fact that all of our fleets in the industry continued to operate during this period, I think, is testimony to the quality of these protocols.

關於 Omicron 與 Delta，我只需要補充一點。 Omicron 的速度確實很快，而且確實席捲了整個艦隊。有趣的是，正如 Jason 提到的，我們與 CDC 合作的所有協議都非常有效。我認為，我們在該行業的所有車隊在此期間繼續運營，這證明了這些協議的質量。

But the other observation just to share is that for all of our crew positivity, 99% of the crew positivity was asymptomatic and the 1% was extremely mild symptoms. I mean, it really was remarkable in many ways. But the impact on the crew was effectively 0, except to take them out of operation for the period of their quarantine. But I just wanted to share that statistic with you.

但另一個要分享的觀察結果是，對於我們所有的船員陽性，99% 的船員陽性是無症狀的，1% 是極其輕微的症狀。我的意思是，它在很多方面都非常了不起。但對船員的影響實際上是 0，除了在隔離期間讓他們停止運營。但我只是想和你分享這個統計數據。

Which I think builds on the environment of all of our crew are vaccinated. If they're eligible, they're getting boosted. And so we're doing, I think, all best efforts here to make sure that we are focused on ensuring that cruising is the safest experience you could have.

我認為這是建立在我們所有船員都接種疫苗的環境之上的。如果他們符合條件，他們就會得到提升。因此，我認為，我們正在盡最大努力確保我們專注於確保巡航是您可以獲得的最安全的體驗。

Makes sense. And could you guys just build out a little bit on some of the U.K. booking trends that you alluded to? It makes sense that they're a little bit farther along than the U.S., but it also sounds like they've sort of continued that march up into the right as far as getting back to pre-Omicron booking trends, but could you just give us a little bit more detail?

說得通。你們能否在您提到的一些英國預訂趨勢的基礎上再做一些介紹？他們比美國走得更遠一點是有道理的，但聽起來他們在回到 Omicron 之前的預訂趨勢方面也有點繼續前進，但你能不能給我們更詳細一點？

Yes. Fred, Yes, that's right. I mean, again, it's -- regardless of market, the kind of the behavior seems to be very similar. When a market or a country or a region goes into the variant as it starts to spike, bookings head in the opposite direction. And as soon as we get over the peak, which happened in the U.K. ahead of the U.S., then all of a sudden, you start -- you see activity returning.

是的。弗雷德，是的，沒錯。我的意思是，不管市場如何，這種行為似乎都非常相似。當一個市場、一個國家或一個地區開始飆升時進入該變體，預訂量就會朝著相反的方向發展。一旦我們越過了高峰，這發生在英國，領先於美國，然後突然之間，你開始了——你會看到活動恢復。

And as the infection rate continues to drop, you see the booking rate continue to accelerate upwards. And that's really what we've seen out of the U.K. market. The kind of the line of ascension is very similar to what we saw in Delta and what we're seeing now in -- with Omicron in the U.S. market. The more the positivity rate drops, the more the bookings increase. And it's very -- it's kind of becoming quite typical. And the U.K., in this case, led the way because it's a fairly significant international market for us so we have quite a lot of volume out of that market, and we saw it literally start to come back as soon as things started to drop down.

隨著感染率繼續下降，您會看到預訂率繼續加速上升。這就是我們在英國市場上看到的情況。這種提升線與我們在 Delta 看到的以及我們現在在美國市場看到的 Omicron 非常相似。陽性率下降得越多，預訂量就越多。它非常 - 它變得非常典型。在這種情況下，英國處於領先地位，因為它對我們來說是一個相當重要的國際市場，所以我們在這個市場上有相當多的交易量，我們看到它在情況開始下降時就開始回升.

Your next question is Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題是 Cleveland Research 的 Vince Ciepiel。

Revenue per cruise day remains up low double digits. Curious if you could help us understand ticket prices on an apples-to-apples basis relative to 2019 with what you just saw in the fourth quarter. You look at short-term rentals or resorts that are pricing 20%, 25% ahead, I don't think your ticket prices were that far ahead, but kind of curious where they're at now and maybe how you can kind of close that gap versus some of the other land-based alternative vacations over the next year or so.

每個郵輪日的收入仍然保持兩位數的低位增長。想知道您是否可以根據您剛剛在第四季度看到的情況，幫助我們了解相對於 2019 年的機票價格。你看看價格提前 20%、25% 的短期租賃或度假村，我認為你的票價並沒有那麼高，但有點好奇他們現在在哪裡，也許你怎麼能接近這一差距與未來一年左右的其他一些陸上替代假期相比。

I'll jump in here first. So in terms of the improvement in revenue, you see it in ticket, you see it in onboard. I think the part of this is us just getting to a consistent operating environment, which is what we think, which is other land-based operators have that opportunity to be doing at this point. And I think we're now getting there. Having a consistent operating environment, we think, is key to -- you have that consistent demand and also having that consistent demand here in the short term. And that, to me, is very important for us to see similar trends in the short term to what others are seeing.

我先跳到這裡。因此，就收入的改善而言，您可以在機票上看到它，在機上看到它。我認為這部分是我們剛剛進入一個一致的運營環境，這就是我們的想法，其他陸基運營商此時有機會這樣做。我認為我們現在已經到了那裡。我們認為，擁有一致的運營環境是關鍵——你有一致的需求，並且在短期內也有一致的需求。對我來說，這對於我們在短期內看到與其他人看到的相似趨勢非常重要。

Now when you look at it further out and you look at, like I said, back half of Q2 and Q3 and Q4, you're seeing similar trends to what you're seeing on some of the land-based vacation experiences that you just talked about.

現在，當您將其看得更遠時，就像我說的那樣，您會看到第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的後半段，您會看到與您剛剛在一些陸上度假體驗中看到的類似趨勢討論過。

Great. And then one housekeeping item on fuel. The price per ton guide for 1Q, I think it was almost 40% ahead of '19. And if I look at MGO and IFO, they're only up, call it, 25% to 30%. So I think that maybe some of that increase, is that attributable to mix, maybe you're burning a little bit more higher expensive MGO? Can you remind us your mix expectations for 2022 and maybe how that compares to what you burned in 2019?

偉大的。然後是一個關於燃料的家務用品。第一季度的每噸指導價，我認為它比 19 年高出近 40%。如果我看一下 MGO 和 IFO，它們只會上漲，稱之為 25% 到 30%。所以我認為這可能是其中的一部分增加，是由於混合，也許你正在燃燒更昂貴的 MGO？您能否提醒我們您對 2022 年的混合預期，以及與您在 2019 年燃燒的預期相比如何？

Yes. So for us, it's obviously fuel prices are up from 2019. And just as a reminder, we also hedged a little bit over half of our fuel would be low market prices over the last couple of months, so we're benefiting from that -- from these actions. And you're right that we have some of them mixed in the short term, a little bit skewed more towards the MGO, but that should normalize throughout the year.

是的。所以對我們來說，顯然燃料價格從 2019 年開始上漲。提醒一下，我們還對沖了過去幾個月中一半以上的燃料將是低市場價格，所以我們從中受益 - - 從這些動作中。你是對的，我們在短期內將其中一些混合在一起，稍微偏向 MGO，但這應該在全年正常化。

Your next question...

你的下一個問題...

We have time for one more question.

我們有時間再問一個問題。

Your final question is Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities.

最後一個問題是 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

In your prepared remarks and press release, you talked about bookings since the beginning of '22 now back to pre-Omicron levels. I wonder if you can give us a little bit more apples-to-apples color. Certainly, we're in wave season. I would expect normally, they should be back well above pre-Omicron or should be back to October, November levels. How did January, apples-to-apples, turn out for you versus a comparable 2019 as far as booking pace?

在您準備好的評論和新聞稿中，您談到了自 22 年初以來的預訂現在回到了 Omicron 之前的水平。我想知道你是否可以給我們更多的蘋果對蘋果的顏色。當然，我們正處於波浪季節。我通常預計，它們應該會回到遠高於 Omicron 之前的水平，或者應該回到 10 月、11 月的水平。就預訂速度而言，與 2019 年可比的 1 月份相比，1 月份的情況如何？

Well, the reason why we pointed out pre-Omicron levels is that where we were pre-Omicron and as Naf commented in his remarks, every week, every month, our bookings were accelerating, right? They were picking up steam and so forth. Then we had a period of time which extended into January, obviously, where Omicron was quite present in society. And so our bookings went backwards in terms of the volume, especially as it relates to Q1 and in the early part of Q2.

好吧，我們指出 Omicron 之前的水平的原因是我們處於 Omicron 之前的水平，正如 Naf 在他的評論中評論的那樣，每週、每月，我們的預訂量都在加速，對嗎？他們正在加速等等。然後我們有一段時間延長到一月份，顯然，Omicron 在社會中相當活躍。因此，我們的預訂量在數量上倒退了，尤其是在第一季度和第二季度初期。

The point about pre-Omicron getting back to pre-Omicron levels is just showing you the build here through the month of January despite the elevated cases of Omicron. Now being on the other side of it, we've seen that next pop and we're pre-Omicron. And then we continue, as your comment around wave and our marketing activities and so forth, getting back to levels that we would expect to on the booking and the booking volume side for the balance of the year. And that's -- it was just really just to kind of give you a point of reference on how we -- where we are in the journey relative to the dip here on Omicron.

儘管 Omicron 的案例有所增加，但關於 pre-Omicron 恢復到 pre-Omicron 水平的要點只是向您展示了 1 月份的構建情況。現在在它的另一邊，我們已經看到了下一個流行音樂，我們是前 Omicron。然後，隨著您對 Wave 和我們的營銷活動等的評論，我們繼續，回到我們預計在今年餘下時間的預訂和預訂量方面的水平。這就是 - 這只是為了給你一個關於我們如何的參考點 - 我們在旅程中相對於 Omicron 的下跌。

Okay. I guess I misread the press release. When you say pre-Omicron levels, are we talking pre -- 2019 comparability or pre-Omicron as in October, early November of last year?

好的。我想我誤讀了新聞稿。當您說 pre-Omicron 水平時，我們是在談論 2019 年之前的可比性還是去年 10 月、11 月初的 Omicron 之前的水平？

The latter. But remember that as we were going into the Cyber Monday Weekend and Black Friday, we've seen a good accelerated pace. So -- and we had the best weekend there.

後者。但請記住，當我們進入網絡星期一周末和黑色星期五時，我們已經看到了很好的加速步伐。所以——我們在那裡度過了最美好的周末。

Okay, okay. I did read it correctly.

好吧好吧。我確實讀對了。

Thank you for assistance, Shelby, with the call today. We thank all of you for your participation and interest in the company. Michael will be available for any follow-up you might have, and I wish you all a very great day.

感謝您在今天的電話中提供幫助，謝爾比。我們感謝大家對公司的參與和關注。邁克爾將隨時為您提供任何後續服務，祝大家度過愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。