皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 2025 調整後 EPS 為 $5.75,年增 11%,優於預期,主要受惠於強勁的臨近需求與成本控制。
    • 上修 2025 全年指引:調整後 EPS 升至 $15.58-$15.63(年增 32%),全年淨收益成長預估 3.5%-4%,優於年初預期。
    • 市場反應正面,Fitch 調升信評至 BBB,S&P 展望由穩定調升為正向,顯示財務體質獲認可。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 創新新船與獨家目的地(如 Royal Beach Club, Perfect Day Mexico)推動品牌差異化與高客戶忠誠度。
      • 數位化與 AI 應用提升預訂轉換率與營運效率,90% onboard revenue 於數位渠道完成。
      • 新產品如 Celebrity River 反應熱烈,吸引現有忠誠客戶跨足新市場,擴大生態圈。
      • 持續資本回饋(股息、回購)與強勁現金流,支持長期成長與股東價值。
    • 風險:
      • 天氣因素與特定目的地(如 Labadi)臨時關閉對短期營收有負面影響。
      • 2026 年全球最低稅負政策將帶來數百個基點的稅負上升壓力。
      • 加勒比地區供給增加,雖目前可控但需持續關注區域競爭與促銷壓力。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q3 容量年增 3%,旅客數達 250 萬人次,年增 7%,顧客滿意度創新高。
    • Q3 淨收益年增 2.4%,高於指引中值 15 個基點,全年預估成長 3.5%-4%。
    • Q3 調整後 EBITDA margin 44.6%,年增 60 個基點,全年預估 EBITDA 超過 70 億美元。
    • Q3 Caribbean 占比 57%,Q4 升至 63%,Q4 Caribbean 收益較 2019 年同期高 37%。
    • Q3 onboard revenue 預訂創新高,近 90% 透過數位渠道完成。
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 全年營收預估年增約 13%,Q4 營收年增 13%。
    • 2025 全年淨收益成長 3.5%-4%,Q4 淨收益成長 2.2%-2.7%。
    • 2025 年度資本支出(CapEx)未明確揭露。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 2026 年的成長展望與成本控制策略?
      A: 2026 年預計容量成長 6%,收益維持溫和成長,成本增幅極低(anemic),即使有新目的地開幕與結構性成本,仍能維持良好利潤率。下方如燃料、稅負等有些雜音,但整體展望樂觀。
    • Q: 2026 年成本增幅“anemic”是否包含新目的地結構性成本?
      A: 是的,‘anemic’成本增幅已包含新開幕如 Royal Beach Club 等結構性成本,整體成本控管會以總體角度衡量,並持續透過科技與 AI 提升效率。
    • Q: 全球需求動能與新客戶取得情況?
      A: 各區域需求強勁,歐洲預訂提前,北美消費者穩健。新客戶與品牌轉換客戶增加,忠誠計畫與數位工具推動新客戶取得與消費升級。
    • Q: 加勒比地區供給增加是否造成壓力?
      A: 雖然供給增加,但公司憑藉差異化船隊與獨家目的地,能吸引更多客戶並維持收益成長,目前供給壓力可控。
    • Q: 新開發的 River 產品資本配置與成長規劃?
      A: 初期訂單僅占 10%,未來有更多擴張選項。重點在於產品體驗到位後會加速投入,目標成為河輪市場重要玩家。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Group third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安.我叫 Regina,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • I would now like to introduce Blake Vanier, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Vanier, the floor is yours.

    現在我想介紹投資者關係副總裁布萊克‧瓦尼爾 (Blake Vanier)。瓦尼埃先生,請您發言。

  • Blake Vanier - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Blake Vanier - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of the Royal Caribbean brand.

    大家早安,感謝您今天參加我們的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。與我一起來到邁阿密的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Jason Liberty、我們的財務長 Naftali Holtz 以及皇家加勒比品牌總裁兼執行長 Michael Bayley。

  • Before we get started, I would like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

    在我們開始之前,我想指出,我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期,並受風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。

  • Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our investor website and in our earnings release. Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency-adjusted basis.

    請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,以了解這些因素的描述。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。此外,我們將討論某些根據定義進行調整的非 GAAP 財務指標,所有非 GAAP 項目的對帳表可在我們的投資者網站和收益報告中找到。除非我們另有說明,所有指標均以恆定貨幣調整為基礎。

  • Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business, and Naftali will follow with a recap of our third quarter, the current booking environment and our outlook for the remainder of 2025. We will then open the call for your questions.

    傑森將在電話會議開始時提供策略概述和業務更新,隨後納夫塔利將回顧我們的第三季、當前的預訂環境以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。然後我們將開始回答您的問題。

  • With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

    說完這些,我很高興將電話轉給傑森。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to discuss our third quarter results, updated outlook and the many exciting initiatives fueling our momentum at the Royal Caribbean Group. This has been another great quarter for us. We continue to see strong momentum across our business, powered by accelerated demand, growing loyalty and all-time high guest satisfaction. Our commercial flywheel, combining innovative ships, distinctive destinations and world-class brands continues to drive sustained growth in guest trust and our ability to deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly.

    謝謝你,布萊克,大家早安。我很高興討論我們的第三季業績、最新展望以及推動皇家加勒比集團發展的許多令人興奮的舉措。對我們來說,這又是一個偉大的季度。在需求加速成長、忠誠度不斷提高以及客戶滿意度創歷史新高的推動下,我們的業務持續呈現強勁勢頭。我們的商業飛輪結合了創新船舶、獨特的目的地和世界一流的品牌,繼續推動客人信任度的持續增長以及我們負責任地提供最佳度假體驗的能力。

  • Before getting to the results for the third quarter, I want to highlight how we are continuing to build a stronger, further leading and more resilient vacation company for the long term. We are focused on building a vacation platform that continues to lead the leisure market through innovative ships, a growing portfolio of exclusive destinations, technology and AI that enhance every step of the guest journey. Together, these high-return investments, strengthen guest loyalty and attract new travelers positioning us to win more share of the fast-growing $2 trillion vacation market.

    在了解第三季的業績之前,我想先強調我們如何繼續長期打造一家更強大、更領先、更具彈性的度假公司。我們致力於打造一個度假平台,透過創新的船舶、不斷增長的獨家目的地組合、技術和人工智慧來提升客人旅程的每一步,並繼續引領休閒市場。這些高回報的投資共同增強了客人的忠誠度並吸引了新的旅行者,使我們能夠在快速增長的 2 兆美元度假市場中贏得更多份額。

  • Earlier today, we announced the Royal Beach Club, Santorini, further expanding our portfolio of exclusive destinations, extending our brands reach beyond the ship and meaningfully enhancing the guest experience. This reflects our vision to redefine how the world vacations. And together with the Royal Beach Club Paradise Island, Perfecta Mexico and others, we expect to increase our exclusive land-based destination portfolio from two to eight by 2028. These initiatives reflect a thoughtful, sustained investment behind our commercial flywheel and reinforce the strength of our vacation platform.

    今天早些時候,我們宣布了聖托里尼皇家海灘俱樂部的成立,進一步擴大了我們的專屬目的地組合,將我們的品牌影響力延伸到船舶之外,並顯著提升了賓客體驗。這反映了我們重新定義世界度假方式的願景。加上皇家海灘俱樂部天堂島、Perfecta Mexico 等,我們預計到 2028 年將我們的獨家陸上目的地組合從 2 個增加到 8 個。這些舉措體現了我們對商業飛輪的深思熟慮和持續的投資,並增強了我們度假平台的實力。

  • Cruising and leisure travel continue to outperform the broader travel industry, and we are exceptionally well positioned to capture that momentum. With a powerful pipeline of strategic initiatives, a strong balance sheet and a disciplined approach to growth. We have both the resources and conviction to continue making game-changing investments that delight our customers strengthen our competitive advantage and drive long-term shareholder value. I want to thank the entire Royal Caribbean Group team for their passion, dedication and commitment that enable us to deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly and to drive exceptional financial results.

    郵輪和休閒旅遊繼續超越整體旅遊業,我們處於非常有利的位置來抓住這一勢頭。擁有強大的策略性舉措、強勁的資產負債表和嚴謹的成長方式。我們擁有資源和信念,可以繼續進行改變遊戲規則的投資,讓客戶滿意,增強我們的競爭優勢並推動長期股東價值。我要感謝整個皇家加勒比集團團隊的熱情、奉獻和承諾,使我們能夠負責任地提供最佳的度假體驗,並帶來卓越的財務表現。

  • Turning to our results and outlook. Third quarter results exceeded our expectations, driven primarily by strong close-in demand for vacation offerings and lower costs. In the third quarter, our capacity increased 3% and we delivered nearly 2.5 million incredible vacations, a 7% increase year-over-year at high guest satisfaction scores. Net yields grew 2.4%, driven by strong demand across all key itineraries. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $5.75 for the third quarter, which was 11% higher than last year. Naftali will elaborate more on Q3 results in a few minutes.

    談談我們的結果和展望。第三季的業績超出了我們的預期,主要原因是度假產品的強勁需求和較低的成本。第三季度,我們的運能成長了 3%,並提供了近 250 萬次精彩假期,年增 7%,客人滿意度很高。受所有主要航線強勁需求的推動,淨收益率成長了 2.4%。我們第三季的調整後每股收益為 5.75 美元,比去年同期成長 11%。納夫塔利將在幾分鐘內詳細說明第三季的業績。

  • Moving to our outlook for the remainder of the year. Our capacity in the fourth quarter is up 10% year-over-year, and we expect to grow yields 2.2% to 2.7% on top of a 7% yield increase in the same quarter last year. Our fourth quarter outlook has been trivially impacted due to adverse weather and unplanned extension of the temporary closure of Labadi, one of our exclusive destinations.

    轉向我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。我們第四季的運力年增了 10%,我們預期收益率將在去年同期 7% 收益率成長的基礎上再成長 2.2% 至 2.7%。由於惡劣天氣和我們獨家目的地之一拉巴迪的臨時關閉時間意外延長,我們第四季度的前景受到了輕微影響。

  • Despite these marginal headwinds we are expecting our total revenue to be up approximately 13% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Full year net yield is expected to grow in the range of 3.5% to 4%, that's 25 basis points better than our initial expectations in January, which highlights the continued strong demand for our brands and the amazing vacations they deliver.

    儘管存在這些微小的不利因素,我們預計第四季度的總收入將年增約 13%。預計全年淨收益率將成長 3.5% 至 4%,比我們 1 月份的初步預期高出 25 個基點,凸顯了市場對我們品牌及其提供的精彩假期的持續強勁需求。

  • Our yield growth this year is on top of several years of double-digit growth resulting in an industry-leading 31% yield growth compared to 2019. This highlights the remarkable transformation of our business and the enduring strength of our leading brands. Full year adjusted earnings per share is now expected to be in the range of $15.58 to $15.63, a 32% year-over-year growth. We are also on track to deliver nearly $6 billion of operating cash flow this year, a significant step change in our performance.

    我們今年的產量成長是在連續幾年兩位數成長的基礎上實現的,與 2019 年相比,產量成長達到了業界領先的 31%。這凸顯了我們業務的顯著轉型和領先品牌的持久實力。預計全年調整後每股收益將在 15.58 美元至 15.63 美元之間,年增 32%。我們還有望在今年實現近 60 億美元的營運現金流,這是我們業績的重大進步。

  • We are a growth company and our proven formula of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost discipline is driving significant earnings growth, continued margin expansion and robust cash flow generation. We remain on track to achieve our Perfecta targets by 2027, a 20% compound annual growth rate and adjusted earnings per share and return on invested capital in the high teens.

    我們是一家成長型公司,我們經過驗證的適度產能成長、適度產量成長和嚴格的成本控制模式正在推動獲利大幅成長、利潤率持續擴大和現金流強勁成長。我們仍有望在 2027 年前實現 Perfecta 目標,即 20% 的複合年增長率、調整後每股收益和投資資本回報率達到十幾歲。

  • As we've always said, Perfecta is an important milestone on our growth journey, but our ambitions go well beyond. The combination of our game-changing ships on order, our growing exclusive destination portfolio advancing our commercial technology platforms that are fueled by AI and disciplined capital management is setting up the post perfect era for another step change in the guest experience and financial performance.

    正如我們一直所說,Perfecta 是我們成長歷程中的一個重要里程碑,但我們的抱負遠不止於此。我們訂購的具有變革意義的郵輪、不斷增長的獨家目的地組合、以及由人工智慧和嚴格的資本管理推動的商業技術平台的結合,正在為後完美時代奠定基礎,為賓客體驗和財務業績的又一次重大變革奠定基礎。

  • Now, I'll provide some more insight into what we're seeing in the demand environment. Consumers continue to prioritize experiences and make room in their budgets for meaningful vacations. Our independent research, combined with millions of daily customer interactions continues to show positive sentiment towards travel and leisure and continued growth in spend.

    現在,我將對我們在需求環境中看到的情況提供更多見解。消費者繼續優先考慮體驗,並在預算中留出空間用於有意義的假期。我們的獨立研究結合數百萬的日常客戶互動繼續顯示出人們對旅遊和休閒的正面情緒以及支出的持續成長。

  • Roughly three quarters of consumers intend to spend the same or more on vacations over the next 12 months, a level that has remained consistent for several quarters. While the broader consumer environment has normalized from the exceptional strength over the past two years, demand for experiences and leisure travel remains intact.

    大約四分之三的消費者打算在未來 12 個月內在假期上花費相同或更多的錢,這一水平已經保持了幾個季度的穩定。儘管整體消費環境已從過去兩年的異常強勁狀態中恢復正常,但體驗和休閒旅遊的需求仍然保持不變。

  • Cruising offers superior value for money versus alternative options driven by the high-quality onboard amenities and services, pricing, inclusive of meals and entertainment and the opportunity to visit a variety of destinations with the convenience of having everything in one place.

    與其他選擇相比,郵輪旅行具有更高的性價比,因為它擁有高品質的船上設施和服務、價格優惠、包含餐飲和娛樂,並且有機會在一個地方方便地遊覽各種目的地。

  • Earlier this year, we announced our plans to launch a new vacation experience, Celebrity River. The introduction of Celebrity River has received an extraordinary response with all initially available deployment selling out almost immediately. The majority of book guests are Royal Caribbean Group loyalty members without prior river cruise experiences, highlighting a powerful opportunity to attract new guests to this segment and deepen engagement by creating new vacation occasions with our existing ecosystem.

    今年早些時候,我們宣布了推出全新度假體驗「名人河」的計畫。名人河遊輪的推出獲得了極大的反響,所有最初可用的座位幾乎立即售罄。大多數預訂的客人都是皇家加勒比集團的忠誠會員,之前沒有河流巡遊經驗,這凸顯了透過利用我們現有的生態系統創造新的度假機會來吸引新客人並加深參與度的強大機會。

  • In fact, the majority of guests shared their primary motivation for booking a Celebrity River vacation was the opportunity to experience a new celebrity product, driven by the trust and affinity they have for the celebrity brand. Guests are also motivated by our new rivership design and features with most of them expecting superior state rooms, ship amenities and outdoor spaces, all hallmarks of the brand. These early booking patterns are a powerful validation of our strategy to expand the Royal Caribbean Group vacatio ecosystem, creating new ways for guests to experience the world with us while deepening the connection to our family of brands.

    事實上,大多數客人表示,他們預訂名人河上遊船假期的主要動機是希望有機會體驗新的名人產品,這是因為他們對名人品牌有信任和喜愛。客人也對我們新的河船設計和功能感到興奮,他們中的大多數人都期待高級客房、船舶設施和戶外空間,這些都是該品牌的標誌。這些早期預訂模式有力地驗證了我們擴大皇家加勒比集團度假生態系統的策略,為客人創造了與我們一起體驗世界的新方式,同時加深了與我們品牌家族的聯繫。

  • We continue to be encouraged by the demand environment. Since the last earnings call, bookings are up on both new and like-for-like hardware with particular acceleration for close-in families. Booked load factors for 2026 remained well within historic ranges at record rates, with booked APD growth at the high end of historical ranges. As always, we remain focused on optimizing our pricing and yield growth.

    我們持續受到需求環境的鼓舞。自上次財報電話會議以來,新硬體和同類硬體的預訂量均有所上升,尤其是近距離家庭的預訂量有所上升。2026 年的預訂載客率仍保持在歷史範圍內,且創下了歷史新高,預訂 APD 成長率也處於歷史最高水準。像往常一樣,我們仍然專注於優化定價和收益成長。

  • Our spectacular new ships continue to generate strong quality demand. Star of the season is exceeding our expectations and Celebrity Xcel is shaping up to be the best performing new ship in the brand's history. The last three years saw unprecedented yield growth, and although that creates a high bar for comparables, our proven formula for success of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost control is expected to continue to drive top line growth margin expansion and substantial cash flow. While still very early in the planning process, we anticipate earnings in 2026 to have a $17 handle on it.

    我們出色的新船繼續產生強勁的品質需求。本季之星超出了我們的預期,Celebrity Xcel 有望成為該品牌歷史上表現最好的新船。過去三年,產量實現了前所未有的成長,儘管這為可比公司設定了較高的門檻,但我們已證明的成功秘訣——適度的產能成長、適度的產量成長和強有力的成本控制,預計將繼續推動營收成長、利潤率擴張和大量現金流。雖然規劃過程仍處於早期階段,但我們預計 2026 年的收益將達到 17 美元。

  • At the Royal Caribbean Group, we've always believed that clarity and conviction are competitive advantages. Our mission is clear to deliver the best vacations responsibly and our objective is just as ambitious to capture a greater share of the growing $2 trillion global vacation market by turning a vacation of a lifetime into a lifetime of vacations. We don't just talk about that ambition.

    在皇家加勒比集團,我們始終相信清晰度和信念是競爭優勢。我們的使命很明確,那就是負責任地提供最好的假期,我們的目標同樣雄心勃勃,那就是透過將一生一次的假期變成一生一次的假期,在不斷增長的 2 萬億美元的全球度假市場中佔據更大的份額。我們不只是談論這個雄心壯志。

  • We built a robust multiyear plan that shows exactly how we intend to get there through bold high-return investments that strengthen our brands, elevate the guest experience and create long-term value for our shareholders. That includes our expansion into River, the ongoing expansion of our private destination portfolio, the transformational development of Perfect Day in Mexico and, of course, a steady stream of game-changing ships.

    我們制定了強有力的多年計劃,明確展示了我們打算如何透過大膽的高回報投資來實現目標,這些投資可以增強我們的品牌,提升客戶體驗並為我們的股東創造長期價值。其中包括我們向河流的擴張、私人目的地組合的持續擴張、墨西哥完美日的轉型發展,當然還有源源不斷的改變遊戲規則的船隻。

  • This quarter, we announced a long-term agreement with Meyer Turku, securing shipbuilding slots through the next decade to continue both companies' tradition of innovation. The agreement confirmed an order for Icon 5 for delivery in 2028, added an option for a seventh icon class ship and positions us for a new game-changing class beyond ICON making the next stage at Royal Caribbean Group's history as we continue to redefine the future of vacations.

    本季度,我們宣布與 Meyer Turku 達成長期協議,確保未來十年的造船時段,以延續兩家公司的創新傳統。該協議確認了 Icon 5 的訂單,該訂單將於 2028 年交付,增加了第七艘 Icon 級遊輪的選擇權,並使我們有能力超越 ICON,打造改變遊戲規則的全新級別,開啟皇家加勒比集團歷史的新篇章,繼續重新定義假期的未來。

  • In a world where digital experiences also define customer expectations, we're working to set the standard. We continue to enhance our digital capabilities to engage customers, remove friction from the guest experience and drive incremental revenue. When we first introduced our app in 2017, the goal is simple. Give guests back the first day of their vacation by eliminating the need to wait in line for onboard reservations. Since then, the app together with our e-commerce engines, has evolved into a cornerstone for our e-commerce strategy, transforming from a utility into a powerful platform that drives revenue, improves operational efficiencies and deepened guest engagement.

    在這個數位體驗也決定客戶期望的世界裡,我們正在努力製定標準。我們不斷增強我們的數位能力,以吸引客戶,消除客戶體驗中的摩擦並增加收入。當我們在 2017 年首次推出我們的應用程式時,目標很簡單。讓客人無需排隊等候船上預訂,即可享受假期的第一天。從那時起,該應用程式與我們的電子商務引擎一起發展成為我們電子商務策略的基石,從實用程式轉變為強大的平台,可推動收入、提高營運效率並加深客戶參與度。

  • In the third quarter, e-commerce visits and conversion rates both increased double digits versus last year, marking a very strong improvement for these channels. In addition, a record share of onboard revenue was booked pre-crews with nearly 90% of those purchases being made through our digital channels. And we continue to redefine loyalty in a way that deepens engagement and provides guests with greater flexibility in how they earn points and status.

    第三季度,電子商務訪問量和轉換率均比去年同期增長了兩位數,標誌著這些管道取得了非常強勁的改善。此外,船上收入中創紀錄的份額是在乘務員上船前預訂的,其中近 90% 的購買是透過我們的數位管道進行的。我們將繼續重新定義忠誠度,以加深參與度並為客人提供更大的積分和地位賺取靈活性。

  • Building on the success of status match I'm excited to announce Points Choice, the next evolution and how guests earn and apply loyalty points across our family of brands. Beginning in early 2026, guests will be able to apply loyalty points to the Royal Caribbean Group brand they prefer, regardless of which brand they are sailing with. This initiative further strengthens the overall value of our loyalty proposition deepening engagement across our portfolio and reinforcing our commitment to putting the guests at the center of our orbit.

    在身份匹配成功的基礎上,我很高興地宣布推出積分選擇,這是下一個發展方向,也是客人如何在我們的品牌系列中賺取和應用忠誠度積分。從 2026 年初開始,客人將能夠將忠誠度積分應用於他們喜歡的皇家加勒比集團品牌,無論他們乘坐哪個品牌的遊輪。這項舉措進一步增強了我們忠誠度主張的整體價值,加深了我們整個投資組合的參與度,並強化了我們以客人為中心的承諾。

  • As our ecosystem expands, it creates a virtuous cycle of demand, value and advocacy, one that drives both short-term performance and enduring growth. It's a model that compounds over time, and we're just at the beginning of what it can become. I am incredibly proud of our teams at the Royal Caribbean Group for their dedication and exceptional execution. The opportunity is significant, and we're well positioned to lead the next era of leisure travel.

    隨著我們的生態系統不斷擴大,它創造了需求、價值和倡議的良性循環,既推動了短期績效,也推動了持久成長。這是一個隨著時間推移而不斷複合的模型,而我們才剛開始探索它的發展方向。我為皇家加勒比集團團隊的奉獻精神和卓越執行力感到無比自豪。這是一個巨大的機遇,我們已準備好引領休閒旅遊的新時代。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

    說完這些,我將把麥克風交給納夫塔利。納夫?

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. I will start by reviewing third quarter results. Net yields grew 2.4% in constant currency compared to the third quarter last year, 15 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. The yield outperformance was driven by the stronger-than-expected close-in demand. Yields grew across all key products and were mainly driven by existing hardware given the timing of new ship deliveries.

    謝謝你,傑森,大家早安。我將首先回顧第三季的業績。與去年第三季相比,淨收益率以固定匯率計算成長了 2.4%,比我們的預期中位數高出 15 個基點。收益率的優異表現是由強於預期的近距離需求所推動的。所有主要產品的收益率均有所增長,這主要得益於新船交付時間帶來的現有硬體的推動。

  • During the quarter, a record share of onboard revenue was booked pre-cruise and nearly 90% of those purchases were completed through our digital channels, with the app emerging as the fastest-growing driver of engagement and conversion across those platforms. NCC, excluding fuel, increased 4.3% in constant currency, 195 basis points lower than our guidance as we continue to find ways to better deliver the best vacations without compromising the guest experience.

    在本季度,船上收入的創紀錄份額是在巡航前預訂的,其中近 90% 的購買是透過我們的數位管道完成的,而應用程式成為這些平台上參與度和轉換率增長最快的驅動力。由於我們不斷尋找在不影響客人體驗的情況下更好地提供最佳假期的方式,因此 NCC(不包括燃料)按固定匯率計算增長了 4.3%,比我們的預期低 195 個基點。

  • Adjusted gross EBITDA margin was 44.6%, 60 basis points better than last year. And operating cash flow was $1.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $5.75, 11% higher than last year and 3% higher than the midpoint of our guidance. Earnings our performance was driven by the strong closing demand and lower costs.

    調整後的 EBITDA 毛利率為 44.6%,比去年同期高出 60 個基點。經營現金流為15億美元。調整後每股收益為 5.75 美元,比去年同期高出 11%,比我們的預期中位數高出 3%。獲利我們的業績受到強勁的成交需求和較低的成本的推動。

  • As Jason mentioned, demand for our portfolio brands and industry-leading experiences continues to be very strong. Book load factors remain within historical ranges, at record rates for both 2025 and 2026. Capacity is expected to grow 5.5% for the full year and 10% in the fourth quarter. As expected, capacity growth in the fourth quarter is driven by new ships, Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel as well as additional APCDs due to lower dry dock days compared to 2024.

    正如 Jason 所提到的,對我們的投資組合品牌和產業領先體驗的需求持續強勁。客座率仍維持在歷史範圍內,2025 年和 2026 年均創歷史新高。預計全年運力將成長 5.5%,第四季將成長 10%。正如預期的那樣,第四季度的運力增長是由新船、海洋之星號和名人 Xcel 號以及由於乾船塢天數與 2024 年相比減少而導致的額外 APCD 推動的。

  • The Caribbean represents 57% of our deployment this year and 63% of capacity in the fourth quarter, a region where we hold a strong position and are advancing a series of strategic initiatives to reinforce that. These include industry-leading hardware, shorter and longer attractive itineraries, the upcoming Royal Beach Club Paradise Island and Perfect Day Mexico.

    加勒比地區占我們今年部署的 57%,佔第四季度運力的 63%,我們在該地區佔據強勢地位,並正在推進一系列戰略舉措來鞏固這一地位。其中包括業界領先的硬體、更短和更長的誘人行程、即將推出的皇家海灘俱樂部天堂島和完美墨西哥之旅。

  • Our Caribbean capacity is up 6% for the year and 10% in the fourth quarter. And even with capacity growth in the region, we see continued yield growth with Caribbean yields in the fourth quarter expected to be up 37% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Europe will account for 15% of capacity for the year and 9% in the fourth quarter and in a strong booked position as European season wraps up. Asia Pacific is expected to account for 11% of capacity for the year and 13% for the fourth quarter.

    我們的加勒比海運力今年成長了 6%,第四季成長了 10%。即使該地區的運力有所增長,我們也看到收益率持續增長,預計第四季度加勒比地區的收益率將比 2019 年第四季增長 37%。歐洲將佔全年運力的 15%,第四季將佔 9%,隨著歐洲航季的結束,歐洲的預訂情況將十分良好。預計亞太地區全年運能佔 11%,第四季佔 13%。

  • Now, let me talk about our updated guidance for 2025. Our proven formula for success, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost discipline is expected to significant earnings growth and higher cash flow generation. We continue to expect net yield growth of 3.5% to 4% for the full year driven by gains in load factor and APD across new and lifelike hardware.

    現在,讓我談談我們對 2025 年的最新指導。我們行之有效的成功秘訣是適度的產能成長、適度的產量成長和嚴格的成本控制,預計這將帶來顯著的獲利成長和更高的現金流產生。我們繼續預計,受全新逼真硬體帶來的載客率和 APD 成長的推動,全年淨收益將成長 3.5% 至 4%。

  • Full year net cruise costs, excluding fuel, expected to decline approximately 0.1%, 40 basis points better than our prior guidance as we remain focused on better execution through leveraging our scale and utilizing technology and AI, all while ensuring strong customer satisfaction and enhanced product offering and vacation experiences. We anticipate a fuel expense of $1.14 billion for the year, and we are 68% hedged below market rates.

    預計全年淨郵輪成本(不包括燃料)將下降約 0.1%,比我們之前的預期高出 40 個基點,因為我們仍然專注於透過利用我們的規模和利用技術和人工智慧來更好地執行,同時確保強大的客戶滿意度和增強的產品供應和度假體驗。我們預計今年的燃料費用為 11.4 億美元,我們的對沖率低於市場價格 68%。

  • Based on current fuel prices, currency exchange rates and interest rates, we expect adjusted earnings per share between $15.58 and $15.63, the $0.12 increase compared to our prior guidance is driven by Q3 outperformance, $0.02 of better Q4 performance, offsetting a $0.05 impact from recent adverse weather events and the unplanned extension of the closure of Labadie.

    根據當前的燃料價格、貨幣匯率和利率,我們預計調整後的每股收益在 15.58 美元至 15.63 美元之間,與我們之前的指導相比,增加 0.12 美元是由於第三季度的優異表現,增加 0.02 美元是由於第四季度的更好表現,抵消了最近惡劣天氣事件和 Labadie 關閉的意外影響。

  • We also expect 18% growth in adjusted EBITDA to just above $7 billion and 290 basis points growth in adjusted EBITDA margin. This positions us to accelerate our cash flow generation, which allows us to continue investing in our strategic initiatives, maintaining investment-grade balance sheet metrics and expanding capital return to shareholders.

    我們也預期調整後的 EBITDA 將成長 18%,達到略高於 70 億美元,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將成長 290 個基點。這使我們能夠加速現金流的產生,使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的策略計劃,保持投資等級資產負債表指標並擴大股東的資本回報。

  • Now, let me comment on fourth quarter guidance. In the fourth quarter, we expect capacity will be up 10% year-over-year with net yield growth of 2.2% to 2.7%. As noted on the last earnings call, the timing of Celebrity Xcel delivery and fewer dry dock days versus last year will unfavorably impact fourth quarter net yield growth by about 90 basis points. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to decline between 6.6% and 6.1% during the fourth quarter. Taking all this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the quarter to be $2.74 to $2.79.

    現在,讓我對第四季度的指導意見進行評論。我們預計第四季運力將年增 10%,淨收益率將成長 2.2% 至 2.7%。正如上次財報電話會議所指出的,Celebrity Xcel 的交付時間和與去年相比更少的干船塢天數將對第四季度淨收益率增長產生不利影響,影響幅度約為 90 個基點。預計第四季郵輪淨成本(不包括燃料)將下降 6.6% 至 6.1%。考慮到所有這些因素,我們預計本季調整後的每股收益為 2.74 美元至 2.79 美元。

  • Now, I will share insights for 2026 which is shaping up to be another very exciting year for us with multiple strategic initiatives that are already well underway. 2026 capacity is expected to be up 6% and as we introduce Legend of the Seas in Europe this summer as well as benefit from a full year of STAR and Xcel. Capacity growth is higher in the first and third quarter due to the timing of new ship deliveries and dry docks.

    現在,我將分享對 2026 年的見解,這一年對我們來說將是另一個非常令人興奮的一年,多項策略舉措已在順利進行中。預計 2026 年的運能將成長 6%,今年夏天我們將在歐洲推出海洋傳奇號,並將受益於全年的 STAR 和 Xcel。由於新船交付和乾船塢的時機,第一季和第三季的運力成長較高。

  • In 2026, we expect to have more dry dock days compared to this year partially due to longer dry docks for several planned modernization projects of our existing ships. Caribbean capacity will represent about 57% of our deployment in 2026. For Caribbean products, we have continued to add shorter itineraries, building on our success in the last several years, enhanced by the opening of the Beach Club in Nassau this year. European itineraries will account for 14% of our capacity. Alaska and West Coast will account for about 10% and Asia Pacific will also account for 10%.

    2026 年,我們預計乾船塢停留天數將比今年更多,部分原因是我們現有船舶的幾個計畫現代化項目需要更長的乾船塢停留時間。到 2026 年,加勒比海地區的運能將占我們部署運力的 57% 左右。對於加勒比海產品,我們繼續增加較短的行程,鞏固了過去幾年的成功,並在今年拿騷海灘俱樂部開業後取得了進一步的進展。歐洲航線將占我們運力的14%。阿拉斯加和西海岸將佔約10%,亞太地區也將佔10%。

  • As Jason mentioned, book load factors remain within historical ranges at record rates for 2026. Bookings for 2026 have come in at APDs that are nicely higher than prior year resulting in 2026 booked APD growth at the high end of historical ranges.

    正如 Jason 所提到的,2026 年的載客率仍處於歷史最高水準。2026 年的預訂量 APD 遠高於去年,導致 2026 年預訂的 APD 成長達到歷史最高水準。

  • Now, moving to costs. We remain committed to driving margin expansion supported by strong cost performance even as we advanced major initiatives throughout 2026, including the opening of the Beach Club in Nassau and the build-out of Perfect Day Mexico. Even with these strategic initiatives, the weigh on the NCCX metric, while being significantly accretive to margins, we expect anemic cost growth next year. We continue to focus on improving fuel efficiency and are also hedging our rate exposure. Next year, we expect EU ETS to increase from 70% this year to 100% weighing on our energy efficiency gains.

    現在,談談成本。儘管我們在 2026 年推進了多項重大舉措,包括在拿騷開設海灘俱樂部和建造 Perfect Day Mexico,但我們仍致力於透過強勁的成本績效來推動利潤率的擴大。即使採取這些策略性舉措,NCCX 指標的壓力也會顯著增加利潤率,但我們預計明年成本成長將較為疲軟。我們持續致力於提高燃油效率,同時也對沖我們的利率風險。明年,我們預計歐盟排放交易體系將從今年的 70% 增加到 100%,這將對我們的能源效率提升造成壓力。

  • Moving belong the line, keep in mind that announced dividends and already completed share repurchases were funded through a combination of strong operating cash flow and incremental borrowings, while maintaining our commitment to keep leverage below 3 times. Additionally, we expect the global minimum tax policy updates beginning January 1, 2026, to impact us by an incremental couple of hundred basis points. Taking all this into account, we expect adjusted EPS to have a $17 handle, and we will provide more details during our fourth quarter earnings call.

    按照慣例,請記住,已宣布的股息和已完成的股票回購是透過強勁的經營現金流和增量借款的組合提供資金的,同時我們保持了將槓桿率保持在 3 倍以下的承諾。此外,我們預計從 2026 年 1 月 1 日開始的全球最低稅政策更新將對我們產生數百個基點的影響。考慮到所有這些因素,我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將達到 17 美元,我們將在第四季財報電話會議上提供更多詳細資訊。

  • Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $6.8 billion in liquidity and its adjusted leverage that was below 3 times on an LTM basis. We're in a very strong financial position, which allows us to fund our growth ambitions while also returning capital to shareholders.

    轉向我們的資產負債表。本季末,我們的流動性為 68 億美元,其調整後的槓桿率在 LTM 基礎上低於 3 倍。我們的財務狀況非常強勁,這使我們能夠為我們的成長目標提供資金,同時向股東返還資本。

  • During the third quarter, we issued $1.5 billion of investment-grade unsecured notes at 5 and 38 coupon. Proceeds were used to opportunistically finance the delivery of Celebrity Xcel at a lower cost than the existing committed ECA financing as well as refinance other debt. This was an opportunistic issuance where we utilize our strong investment-grade balance sheet to access the capital markets to finance a new ship delivery. We intend to continue to evaluate these types of transactions compared to existing committed ECA arrangements to lower cost of capital and gain tenure. We have very limited maturities left for this year, all related to ship amortization payments that we plan to repay with cash flow.

    第三季度,我們發行了價值 15 億美元的投資等級無擔保票據,票面利率為 5% 和 38%。所得款項用於以低於現有承諾的 ECA 融資的成本為 Celebrity Xcel 的交付提供融資,以及為其他債務進行再融資。這是一次機會性發行,我們利用強大的投資等級資產負債表進入資本市場,為新船交付提供資金。我們打算繼續評估這些類型的交易,並將其與現有的承諾型 ECA 安排進行比較,以降低資本成本並獲得使用權。我們今年剩餘的到期債務非常有限,全部與船舶攤提付款有關,我們計劃用現金流償還。

  • In connection with the debt offering, Fitch upgraded our clear rating to BBB and S&P update our outlook from stable to positive. We are very pleased with the recognition of the rating agencies of the strength of our balance sheet and our strong financial performance. In September, we received a cash dividend of $258 million from our joint venture TUI Cruises, and we expect it to continue to pay a regular cash dividend given its strong financial performance and balance sheet.

    就此次債務發行而言,惠譽將我們的明確評級上調至 BBB,標準普爾則將我們的展望從穩定上調至正面。我們非常高興評級機構認可我們的資產負債表實力和強勁的財務表現。9月份,我們從合資企業TUI Cruises獲得了2.58億美元的現金股息,鑑於其強勁的財務業績和資產負債表,我們預計它將繼續支付定期現金股息。

  • Also during the quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares. And as of September 30, we have $345 million still available under the current authorization. In September, the Board of Directors authorized a 30% increase to the quarterly dividend to $1 per common share. We remain focused on both growing the company through strategic investments as well as returning capital to shareholders. Since July 2024, we returned $1.6 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and we intend to utilize our strong financial position to return capital going forward.

    此外,在本季度,我們還回購了約 130 萬股。截至 9 月 30 日,根據目前授權,我們仍有 3.45 億美元可用。9 月,董事會批准將季度股息提高 30%,至每股 1 美元。我們仍然專注於透過策略性投資來發展公司以及向股東返還資本。自 2024 年 7 月以來,我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 16 億美元的資本,我們打算利用我們強大的財務狀況來返還未來的資本。

  • In closing, we remain committed and focused on our mission to deliver the investigation experiences responsibly as we wrap up another strong year and look ahead to an exciting 2026.

    最後,我們將繼續致力於並專注於我們的使命,以負責任的方式提供調查體驗,結束另一個強勁的一年,並展望令人興奮的 2026 年。

  • With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for a question-and-answer session.

    有了這些,我將要求我們的接線生開啟電話問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

    (操作員指示)史蒂夫·維辛斯基 (Steve Wieczynski),Stifel。

  • Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

  • So Jason, you mentioned that '26 EPS is going to start with the [17] handle, and it seems pretty clear that '26 bookings, demand pricing all look pretty solid at this point. So look, I fully understand you guys aren't prepared to give detailed guidance for next year. But as we think about '26 I would assume your company tagline very much remains in place here, meaning, look, we know capacity growth offset at 6%. Moderate yield growth, I would assume, is kind of in that low to mid-single-digit range and that the disciplined cost control probably means low single-digit growth or in your terms, anemic, even with some of your structural costs you'll be taking on next year. So from a high-level perspective, is that kind of the right way to think about '26?

    所以傑森,你提到 26 年每股盈餘將從 [17] 開始,而且很明顯,26 年的預訂量、需求定價目前看起來都非常穩固。所以,我完全理解你們還沒準備好為明年提供詳細的指導。但當我們思考『26』時,我會假設貴公司的標語在這裡仍然適用,這意味著,看,我們知道產能成長抵消了 6%。我認為,適度的收益成長處於低到中等個位數範圍內,而嚴格的成本控制可能意味著低個位數成長,或者用你們的話來說,是疲軟的成長,即使考慮到你們明年將承擔的一些結構性成本。那麼從高層次的角度來看,這是思考 26 的正確方式嗎?

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think that is a good high-level way of saying it. I think first, to start off with, it is early in our planning process. And actually, I even said -- I said it earlier to you on CNBC [$17 -- $17 does not mean 1701]. If you take moderate yield growth, you take good cost control or not use the term anemic, which I think is probably a better description of how we think about costs for next year as we are significantly leveraging our scale, leveraging technology and so forth to get more and more efficient each and every day that leads you to sizable earnings per share growth, ROIC growth, etc.

    是的,我認為這是一種很好的高層次表達方式。我認為首先,我們的規劃過程還處於早期階段。事實上,我甚至說過——我之前在 CNBC 上跟你說過[17 美元——17 美元並不意味著 1701]。如果您採取適度的收益成長,那麼您就可以進行良好的成本控制,或者不要使用「貧血」一詞,我認為這可能更好地描述了我們如何考慮明年的成本,因為我們正在充分利用我們的規模、利用技術等來提高效率,從而為您帶來可觀的每股收益增長、ROIC 增長等。

  • I think where there's probably a little bit of noise is below the line and probably in fuel. And so there are there are an increase in our fuel costs that have a compliance component to it. And then also, as we as we're managing global minimum tax, there is a slight increase in the taxes that we're anticipating to play. And that's probably where there's a little bit of a of a disconnect.

    我認為可能存在一點噪音的地方是線以下,也可能是燃料中。因此,我們的燃料成本增加,其中就包括合規部分。而且,當我們管理全球最低稅率時,我們預計稅率會略有增加。這可能就是存在一點脫節的地方。

  • The other thing I just want to add is we're also investing a lot in technology. We're investing a lot in these new destinations. We're going from two to eight. And so as we bring these things online, there's also depreciation and other things that could potentially come into play.

    我想補充的另一件事是,我們也在技術方面投入了大量資金。我們在這些新目的地投入了大量資金。我們將從 2 增加到 8。因此,當我們將這些東西放到網路上時,也可能會出現折舊和其他因素。

  • Lastly, I would just add is we're also leveraging to return capital to our shareholders. And you saw that here with the raise in our dividend to $1. And I think you've also seen that is not talked about in our buyback of shares. And so our balance sheet is in an incredibly strong position and we are opportunistically buying back shares. And we're doing that and taking advantage of being able to lever ourselves up to maintain a strong investment-grade position but maintaining that leverage point that we've said to maintain that rating.

    最後,我想補充的是,我們也利用槓桿向股東回饋資本。您在這裡看到了我們的股息增加到 1 美元。我想您也已經看到,我們在股票回購中並沒有提到這一點。因此,我們的資產負債表處於極其強勁的地位,我們正在抓住機會回購股票。我們正在這樣做,並利用我們自身的優勢來保持強大的投資級地位,但保持我們所說的維持該評級的槓桿點。

  • So we feel really good about the book position. The rates that we're booking at provide us a lot of rate room and opportunity for next year as we are optimizing our yield profile while we're growing the business at 6% on a capacity basis and bringing on new incredible destination experiences with the Royal Beach Club here in Nassau.

    因此,我們對這本書的評價非常滿意。我們預訂的價格為我們明年提供了很大的價格空間和機會,因為我們正在優化我們的收益狀況,同時以 6% 的容量增長業務,並通過拿騷的皇家海灘俱樂部帶來新的令人難以置信的目的地體驗。

  • So there's a lot of really great and exciting things. And I would say just last one is that we continue to see a very strong consumer. Our guests are their thirst for our brands for the ships the destinations and the incredible experiences that our incredible crew are delivering is at the very highest level, and we see that in our Net Promoter Score. So we're super excited about the strength. And there was a little bit of noise here in the fourth quarter. There were three storms that just one, even in Asia, there's a typhoon in Asia that impacted some of the land-based experience and some of the compensation we needed to give back. But that's not a reflection of the strength that we're seeing.

    所以有很多真正偉大和令人興奮的事情。我想說的最後一點是,我們繼續看到非常強勁的消費者。我們的客人對我們的品牌、我們的船隻、我們的目的地以及我們出色的船員所提供的令人難以置信的體驗的渴望達到了最高水平,我們從我們的淨推薦值中看到了這一點。因此,我們對這種實力感到非常興奮。第四節出現了一些小噪音。有三場風暴,其中一場甚至發生在亞洲,亞洲的一場颱風影響了一些陸地體驗,我們需要給予一些補償。但這並不能反映我們所看到的力量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robin Farley, UBS.

    瑞銀的羅賓法利。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • I also wanted to think a little bit about your 2026 comments. To clarify, when you talk about the anemic net cruise cost growth, is that sort of anemic before because that would sound like sub-2%. And is that before we think about the impact of the new destinations you're opening? In other words, would that be in addition? Was that anemic referring to sort of like-for-like and then there would be more than that?

    我也想稍微思考一下你 2026 年的評論。需要澄清的是,當您談到郵輪淨成本成長乏力時,這種乏力是否是之前的那種,因為這聽起來像是低於 2%。在我們考慮您所開設的新目的地的影響之前,這是嗎?換句話說,那算附加的嗎?貧血是否指的是某種同類情況,然後還會有更多?

  • And then a similar clarification on the bookings side of things for 2026, it sounds like your price on the books is up year-over-year and maybe booked load is down year-over-year. And I assume that's intentional. Maybe you could just kind of give us some color around that.

    然後對 2026 年的預訂情況進行類似的澄清,聽起來您的帳面價格同比上漲,而預訂量可能同比下降。我認為這是故意的。也許您可以給我們一些關於此方面的詳細資訊。

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Let me talk about the cost expectations for next year. So in the last couple of years, we're opening and we have plans to open every year private destination, right? So next year is going to be the Paradise Island Beach Globe in Nassau. And we have a lot of other initiatives that we're doing. But at the end of the day, the way we manage our costs is we look at -- we were subscribed to our formula. We have the moderate capacity growth, made deal growth, strong cost control. We grow capacity next year by 6%. So with all this, we take this into account, and my comments are totally under total amount.

    我先講一下明年的成本預期。所以在過去的幾年裡,我們正在開業,並且我們計劃每年都開設私人目的地,對嗎?因此明年將在拿騷舉辦天堂島海灘環球大賽。我們也正在進行許多其他舉措。但最終,我們管理成本的方式是我們看——我們遵循我們的公式。我們的產能成長適度,交易成長,成本控制有力。明年我們的產能將增加 6%。因此,考慮到所有這些,我們將這一點考慮在內,我的評論完全低於總量。

  • And of course, we have those headwinds. But on the other hand, we have a lot of things that we're doing. We are finding better ways, as I noted in my remarks, to manage the business, deliver the experience in a more efficient way through technology, just efficiencies and AI. And so the way we manage it is all in a total. And so my comments are on the total cost growth for next year.

    當然,我們也面臨這些阻力。但另一方面,我們還有很多事情要做。正如我在演講中提到的那樣,我們正在尋找更好的方法來管理業務,透過技術、效率和人工智慧以更有效的方式提供體驗。因此,我們管理這一切的方式都是整體性的。所以我的評論是關於明年的總成本成長。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And just to put a point on it, Robin, is that the anemic comment includes the structural costs. So it's not just like-for-like, it includes the Royal Beach Club in the Bahamas as well as we leverage AI and we leverage the scale of our business.

    是的。羅賓,我要強調的是,這條貧血的評論包括結構性成本。因此,這不僅僅是同類交易,還包括巴哈馬皇家海灘俱樂部,以及我們利用人工智慧和利用我們的業務規模。

  • On your question on the bookings side of things, I think there's a few things to keep into consideration. One, we've obviously leveraging our incredible ships and leveraging our private destinations while also considering what different segments that consumers are looking for. We have more short product coming online next year and those guests book closer in. And so that's a little bit of probably what I would say is the year-over-year comparable on the load factor standpoint, this really is what influences that.

    關於您提出的預訂方面的問題,我認為有幾件事需要考慮。首先,我們顯然利用了我們令人難以置信的船隻和私人目的地,同時也考慮了消費者正在尋找的不同細分市場。明年我們將推出更多短片產品,而那些客人的預訂時間會更近。因此,我想說的可能是,從載客率的角度來看,年比情況確實存在影響。

  • We actually think we're in an optimal book position. We're at rates that are, I think, higher than we probably thought that they would be at, which I think is a really great thing as we see really strong demand and people are dreaming more and more on their vacation experiences. And we're also seeing that translate to onboard spend. And so we're thoughtfully meeting our guests with the experiences and they're willing to pay for that.

    我們確實認為我們處於最佳的圖書位置。我認為,我們的費率可能比我們預想的要高,我認為這是一件非常好的事情,因為我們看到了非常強勁的需求,人們對他們的度假體驗越來越有憧憬。我們也看到這轉化為船上消費。因此,我們精心為客人提供體驗,他們也願意為此付費。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • So Jason, maybe could you just elaborate on the progression of global demand that you saw over the course of the third quarter any change in momentum at all that you've seen in October? And maybe to your comment before, just drivers that you see supporting '26 bookings at the high end of historical ranges. And maybe just if you're seeing anything different from new customer acquisition.

    那麼 Jason,您能否詳細說明您在第三季度看到的全球需求的進展情況以及您在十月看到的勢頭有任何變化嗎?也許正如您之前的評論,您認為支持 26 年預訂量達到歷史最高水平的司機只是其中的一部分。也許只是您看到了與新客戶獲取不同的情況。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So I'll just start off maybe first on the new customer acquisition side. First, all the things that our brands are doing and what we're doing on an enterprise basis, to really kind of build out further our commercial flywheel is really working. So even like the announcement today about Points Choice and making sure that our guests when they choose to sell in any of our brands that they're getting the point that they want on their primary brand that they have loyalty status in.

    當然。因此,我首先從新客戶獲取方面開始。首先,我們的品牌正在做的所有事情以及我們在企業基礎上正在做的事情,實際上是為了進一步擴大我們的商業飛輪,這些都確實在發揮作用。因此,即使像今天關於積分選擇的公告一樣,我們也確保我們的客人在選擇我們任何品牌的商品時,都能在他們擁有忠誠度的主要品牌上獲得他們想要的積分。

  • We continue to evolve things like that. Our technology, our AI tools are getting smarter and smarter so that we're able to curate what is relevant to that consumer. And that's drawing in more new to cruise, really seeing an elevated amount of increase first to brand. So seeing people shift from other cruise lines to our brands, we've seen an elevated amount of that. And then our loyalty program and what we've been doing to add to that is we're just getting more and more reps from that consumer. And so we're really happy about that.

    我們將繼續改進這樣的事物。我們的技術和人工智慧工具越來越智能,因此我們能夠挑選出與消費者相關的內容。這吸引了更多新遊客加入郵輪旅遊,真正見證了品牌首次成長的提升。因此,我們看到人們從其他郵輪公司轉向我們的品牌,而這一趨勢正在不斷增加。然後,我們的忠誠度計劃以及我們一直在做的事情就是從消費者那裡獲得越來越多的代表。因此我們對此感到非常高興。

  • When you think about just what we see broadly, really each of the markets that we're doing business in or that we're sourcing our guests from is doing quite well. We saw a little bit of a pullback from the North here in Canada in the early kind of mid part of the year, but we've now seen that normalize Demand from Europe this summer was really strong, and their focus now on booking into 2026 is actually stronger.

    當你思考我們所看到的廣泛情況時,實際上我們開展業務的每個市場或我們接待客人的每個市場都表現得相當不錯。今年年初到年中,我們看到加拿大北部地區出現了小幅回落,但現在我們看到,今年夏天來自歐洲的正常需求非常強勁,他們現在更加註重預訂到 2026 年。

  • And the reason for that, when we talk to those guests and our trial partners, is that we didn't have a lot of inventory left in the summer of 2025 for the European consumers that typically book a little bit later. So they're getting a little bit ahead of that curve, and that's really encouraging. And then again, we continue to see the US consumer really across all segments, whether that's our family segment to our ultra-luxury segment. we want to stay with us and so those demand patterns have been quite strong.

    當我們與這些客人和試用合作夥伴交談時,我們發現,2025 年夏天,我們沒有為通常會晚一點預訂的歐洲消費者提供太多庫存。所以他們在這方面領先了一點,這真的令人鼓舞。而且,我們繼續看到美國消費者真正遍布各個領域,無論是家庭領域還是超豪華領域。我們都想留在我們這裡,因此這些需求模式一直很強勁。

  • What I will say is that as these tools develop our forecasting is getting better. And so our ability to predict what's going to happen in a quarter and then close in is getting better as this kind of marriage between AI and our historical forecasting capabilities is getting closer and closer in terms of its predictability. And so I would not, in any way, take that.

    我想說的是,隨著這些工具的發展,我們的預測會越來越好。因此,隨著人工智慧與我們的歷史預測能力之間的結合在可預測性方面越來越緊密,我們預測一個季度內將會發生什麼以及接近什麼的能力也越來越好。所以無論如何我都不會接受這一點。

  • Because we hit the high end of our range in Q3, that's we don't guide with the hope of coming out with some incredible beat. We guide because that's our best thinking at a point in time. It's a 50-50 forecast. And that's how we try to manage the business. We've just, I think, all collectively been in an environment where what we would see in the forward-looking picture was greater than what we saw in the previous picture. And we're seeing that, but now we're able to predict it better.

    因為我們在第三季達到了預期的高端,所以我們並不希望取得一些令人難以置信的成績。我們之所以提供指導,是因為這是我們在某個時間點上最好的想法。這是 50-50 的預測。這就是我們嘗試管理業務的方式。我認為,我們都處在這樣一個環境中:我們在未來看到的景像比之前看到的景象更美好。我們看到了這一點,但現在我們能夠更好地預測它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask about the Caribbean. There's been a lot of talk about whether there's oversupply in the region as people move more capacity there. You gave that great start about 4Q and it doesn't sound like you're seeing it, but curious what you're seeing there, whether there is oversupply and how you think about the setup for 2026 specifically?

    我只是想問一下有關加勒比海的問題。隨著人們將更多產能轉移到該地區,關於該地區是否出現供應過剩的討論很多。您對第四季度給出了一個很好的開端,但聽起來您似乎並沒有看到這一點,但我很好奇您看到了什麼,是否存在供應過剩的情況,以及您如何看待 2026 年的具體情況?

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Well, I mean, it's -- I think it's well known. It's been known for some time that there is an increase in supply in the Caribbean, of course, Caribbean has been working incredibly well for us. And so not surprised that there's been a supply increase there. But it's a very manageable increase in surmise. So we've seen it -- it's been a little bit more promotional in the Caribbean activities. But for us, I think, because of our differentiated assets with our ships and our destinations and our ability to kind of keep our guests inside of our ecosystem, and we're seeing a draw from other ecosystems coming to our ecosystem that we're able to not only manage that demand, but we're able to see our guests pay up to experience or delivery.

    是的。嗯,我的意思是,我認為這是眾所周知的。一段時間以來,人們都知道加勒比地區的供應量增加,當然,加勒比地區對我們來說一直運作良好。因此那裡的供應量增加並不奇怪。但這種猜測的成長是可以控制的。所以我們已經看到了——它在加勒比地區的活動中得到了更多的宣傳。但對我們來說,我認為,由於我們的船舶和目的地具有差異化的資產,並且我們有能力將客人留在我們的生態系統中,我們看到其他生態系統的吸引力正在吸引我們進入我們的生態系統,我們不僅能夠管理這種需求,而且我們能夠看到我們的客人為體驗或交付付費。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的布蘭特‧蒙圖爾 (Brandt Montour)。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • So if you look at your guidance for the fourth quarter net yields and you add back the 90 basis points or so from the comparison issues that you laid out. And then maybe add something for the storms you kind of get to, I don't know, maybe something like mid-3s exiting the year. I just want to know if that's the way you would sort of cleanse the fourth quarter in terms of how yield growth is exiting the year to the lens of the fact that there's not much new hardware helping out there. And so maybe this is what we could look at as a like-for-like exit in the year. But let me know if there's other puts or takes, we think about building our models for '26.

    因此,如果您查看第四季度淨收益率的指導,並從您列出的比較問題中加回約 90 個基點。然後也許會為你遇到的風暴添加一些內容,我不知道,也許是像今年 3 月中期那樣的東西。我只是想知道,您是否會以這種方式來清理第四季度,從今年的收益成長來看,因為沒有太多新的硬體提供幫助。因此,也許這就是我們可以看作是今年同類退出的情況。但如果還有其他想法或建議,請告訴我,我們會考慮為 26 年建立模型。

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, obviously, we're not providing guiding for '26, but we are going to subscribe to the formulas, as we just talked about. But in terms of how you exit the fourth quarter, your math is directionally correct. So we did quantify the less dry docks as well as new hardware. And so when you take kind of a more normalized new hardware and like-for-like, you're definitely into ZIP code.

    是的。我的意思是,顯然,我們不會為 26 年提供指導,但我們將遵循剛才談到的公式。但就你如何退出第四季而言,你的數學方向是正確的。因此,我們確實量化了較少的乾船塢以及新硬體。因此,當您採用更規範的新硬體和同類產品時,您肯定會關注郵遞區號。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Hardiman, Citi.

    花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • So maybe to that last point, as we sort of roll things forward into 2026, I think investors are very keen as we think about puts and takes that there's a lot of puts, right? You've got whereas in 2025, you had sort of negative ship timing. That was a headwind that now becomes a tailwind. Obviously, weather it's not a big number, but in theory, that becomes a tailwind as we think about 2026.

    所以也許對於最後一點,當我們將事情推進到 2026 年時,我認為投資者非常熱衷於看跌期權和看漲期權,因為有很多看跌期權,對嗎?而在 2025 年,你的船舶時機有點糟糕。原來是逆風,現在卻變成了順風。顯然,這不是一個很大的數字,但從理論上講,當我們考慮 2026 年時,它將成為順風。

  • I guess where I struggle a little bit is to get to anything less than $18. If I don't assume that yields are, I don't know, less than they were this year as we think about growth. So maybe help us are there any takes as we think about the puts and takes specifically, are some of these tailwinds may be offset by a weaker consumer environment broadly, do really sound like it? We're just trying to sort of put some of these items.

    我想我有點掙扎的地方是想要得到低於 18 美元的東西。如果我不假設收益率會低於今年的成長水平,那麼我就不知道了。因此,當我們具體考慮利弊時,也許可以幫助我們做出決定,這些順風因素中的一些可能會被普遍較弱的消費環境所抵消,聽起來真的如此嗎?我們只是想把其中的一些物品放進去。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So thanks, James, for the question. I think, first, to start off, is that the consumer for our guests is strong. They have great jobs, great balance sheet, bank accounts. And they have a strong desire to vacation and build experiences and memories with their friends and family. But we're also not immune to what's generally happening in the environment.

    是的。所以,詹姆斯,謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為,首先,我們的客人的消費能力很強。他們擁有很好的工作、很好的資產負債表和銀行帳戶。他們非常渴望與朋友和家人一起度假並累積經驗和回憶。但我們也無法免受環境中普遍發生的情況的影響。

  • And so it's what the consumer is willing -- their willingness to pay up, and they are willing to pay up. They may not be willing to pay like last year, double digits up for the year before, I think it was 13% or 14% up but they're willing to pay more. And so I think in your math of yield growth is we expect moderate yield growth for next year. I would describe like this year was a moderate yield growth type of year, which we had at foreshadowed for a very long period of time.

    所以這就是消費者願意付出的──他們願意付出的,而且他們也願意付出。他們可能不願意像去年那樣支付,前年漲了兩位數,我認為漲幅是 13% 或 14%,但他們願意支付更多。因此,我認為,根據您對收益率成長的計算,我們預計明年的收益率將溫和成長。我認為今年是產量溫和成長的一年,這是我們很早就預見的。

  • I would say, second, as we said, is our -- we expect our costs to grow on a per APCD basis at an anemic level. So we want to have a healthy margin between our yields and our costs, and that's going to drive more margin to our business, more returns, more cash flow to our shareholders and gives us the confidence to continue to invest in our business.

    我想說,第二,正如我們所說,我們預計我們的成本將以每個 APCD 為基礎以較低的水平增長。因此,我們希望收益和成本之間保持健康的利潤率,這將為我們的業務帶來更多的利潤、更多的回報、更多的股東現金流,並使我們有信心繼續投資於我們的業務。

  • I think where -- when you're probably trying to reconcile your numbers, I mean, you can certainly but Blake and team can help you do more of it. I think it's -- more of it is below the line, where I think that there's an opportunity to provide some clarity here.

    我認為——當你可能試圖協調你的數字時,我的意思是,你當然可以,但布萊克和團隊可以幫助你做更多的事情。我認為——更多的是低於這個水平,我認為有機會在這裡提供一些澄清。

  • And again, I just want to stress, I did not say our earnings for next year are going to be $17 I said that they're going to have a 17 handle on there. Just to clarify, again, so I think we feel very good about the business for next year. And whether we look at our book position or what we're hearing from our guests, we're going to continue to generate very strong demand and deliver these incredible vacation experiences.

    我再次強調,我並沒有說我們明年的收益將是 17 美元,而是說他們將控制在 17 美元左右。再次澄清一下,我認為我們對明年的業務非常有信心。無論我們看的是我們的預訂情況還是我們從客人那裡聽到的消息,我們都將繼續產生非常強勁的需求並提供這些令人難以置信的度假體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

    本·柴肯,瑞穗。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • I have a question on River. You mentioned Jason sold out your '27 itineraries in a few hours. I think you have 10 ships in the first order. How are you thinking about allocating capital to this opportunity in the context of what appears to be accretive ROI? Like are there balance sheet limitations? Is there ship construction limitations? Or was it just getting comfortable with the opportunity.

    我有一個關於 River 的問題。您提到 Jason 在幾個小時內就銷售了您的 27 個行程。我認為你們第一批訂單中有 10 艘船。在投資報酬率看似增加的背景下,您如何考慮為這個機會分配資本?例如是否存在資產負債表限制?船舶建造有限制嗎?或者只是對這個機會感到滿意。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. Thanks for the question, Ben. First, it didn't sell out in a few hours and sold out in a few minutes. So to our Head of our celebrity brand, I told you so.

    當然。謝謝你的提問,本。第一,不是幾個小時就賣完了,幾分鐘就賣完了。所以對於我們名人品牌的負責人,我告訴過你。

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • The good news is we're going to have more.

    好消息是,我們將會擁有更多。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's right. Yeah, that's right. So our initial order was 10%. Obviously, we have options for much more than all of that. First and foremost, what you want to do is you want to make sure that you get the product right. And so our launch of it and you had the opportunity to see what the ship is going to look like, the amenities that it's going to offer it will deliver on the true DNA of the Royal Caribbean Group, right? It will be a step change, and it will change the expectations of what our guests are looking for.

    這是正確的。是的,沒錯。因此我們的初始訂單是 10%。顯然,我們的選擇遠不止這些。首先,您要做的就是確保您獲得正確的產品。因此,當我們下水時,您有機會看到這艘船的外觀,它所提供的設施將體現皇家加勒比集團的真正 DNA,對嗎?這將是一次重大的改變,它將改變我們客人的期望。

  • As I also said when we announced this, this is not a hobby. We do expect to be a substantial vacation player in the River business, and so we will continue to grow that. I mean, our limitations, I think more is just squaring up that we got the experience on what we want it to be. And then, this is an area where we have an opportunity to accelerate into here, and we have confidence in doing that.

    正如我在宣布這一消息時所說的那樣,這不是一種愛好。我們確實希望成為河流度假業務的重要參與者,因此我們將繼續發展這項業務。我的意思是,我們的局限性,我認為更多的只是我們獲得的經驗是我們想要的。然後,這是一個我們有機會加速進入的領域,我們對此有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    康納·坎寧安(Conor Cunningham),Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just going back to comment and moving to shorter-duration itineraries and as a result, banking on closing yields. I think that a lot of the questions have just been obviously around the yield performance in the next year. But it seems to that mix dynamic is really what's kind of changing your approach to the 2026. So I guess maybe my question is, if close-in demand were to stay here, would that suggest that like the ultimate -- like that you would see significant upside to your underlying earnings upside in 2026. Is that a fair assumption?

    也許只是回到評論並轉向較短時間的行程,並因此依賴最終收益。我認為很多問題顯然都與明年的殖利率表現有關。但看起來混合動態確實在某種程度上改變了您對 2026 年的態度。所以我想我的問題是,如果近距離需求保持在這裡,這是否意味著最終——你會看到 2026 年你的潛在盈利有顯著的上升空間。這是一個合理的假設嗎?

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So one, I wouldn't say that we are banking on close in demand. I would probably describe it as each product that we offer to our guests and they're different segments and different brands and different destinations has a different booking pattern to it. That's very natural. And I think we can get away is not typically what's on somebody's mind 18 months in advance. And so as we have more of those opportunities that we're able to deliver because of the assets that we have, that is what's driving a change in that behavior.

    是的。因此,我不會說我們依賴接近的需求。我可能會將其描述為我們向客人提供的每種產品,並且不同的細分市場、不同的品牌和不同的目的地都有不同的預訂模式。這是很自然的。我認為我們可以擺脫通常人們在 18 個月前所想的事情。因此,由於我們擁有的資產,我們能夠提供更多這樣的機會,這就是推動這種行為改變的因素。

  • But the behavior in our other products actually looks very similar to what we have typically seen for seven night Caribbean or seven night in Europe, et cetera. And so those patterns are there. They're strong and they're accelerating. And so I think that's what you want to see is that for each of the product and those different tracks that things are moving at a rate that's going to optimize your total revenue performance. And so that's how we think about it.

    但我們其他產品的行為實際上與我們通常看到的七晚加勒比海之旅或七晚歐洲之旅等非常相似。所以這些模式就存在了。他們實力強大,並且正在加速發展。所以我認為你想看到的是,對於每種產品和不同的軌道,事情都在以能夠優化你的總收入表現的速度發展。這就是我們的想法。

  • Now, certainly, we have seen in the past, and we do not count on this is that you close in on all these products accelerate and we end up beating our expectations. But we do, of course, try to bake in to our forecast. These are the patterns that -- the patterns we saw last quarter, the patterns we saw a year ago try to inform how we expect to track to occur. And that's how our yield management works, that's how our tools work and trying to predict and to lay out what we should be offering in the market.

    現在,當然,我們已經看到過去的情況,我們並不指望這一點,那就是你接近所有這些產品的加速,我們最終會超越我們的預期。但我們當然會嘗試將其融入我們的預測中。這些是我們上個季度看到的模式,我們一年前看到的模式試圖告訴我們預期追蹤將如何發生。這就是我們的收益管理的運作方式,這就是我們的工具的運作方式,我們試圖預測並規劃我們應該在市場上提供什麼。

  • So I think, again, we feel very good about the booking environment. We feel good about our book position. I would read into our commentary is we are optimizing our revenue -- as when we look back in time, we see more often than not that we've left some money on the table, and that it's our job to maximize revenue.

    因此,我認為,我們對預訂環境感到非常滿意。我們對我們的圖書狀況感到滿意。我認為我們的評​​論是我們正在優化我們的收入——當我們回顧過去時,我們常常發現我們遺漏了一些錢,而我們的工作就是最大化收入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sharon Zackfia, William Blair.

    莎朗·扎克菲亞、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

    Sharon Zackfia - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to talk through kind of the composition of your revenue as you ramp up more of the own destination. So I know with CocoCay, you also saw a ticket lift in addition to the onboard spend that you get on the island. Is that a similar dynamic with the Royal Beach Club or as the Royal Beach clubs come on, do we start to see the composition of yield shift a little bit more to onboard spend and how that lead versus ticket?

    我想談談隨著您越來越多地拓展自己的目的地,您的收入組成。所以我知道,在可可島,除了在島上消費外,你還會看到門票上漲。這是否與皇家海灘俱樂部的情況類似?或者隨著皇家海灘俱樂部的出現,我們會開始看到收益的組成更多地轉向船上消費,以及這與門票相比有何不同?

  • Michael Bayley - President and Chief Executive Officer of Royal Caribbean International

    Michael Bayley - President and Chief Executive Officer of Royal Caribbean International

  • Sharon, it's Michael. Yeah, it's a good question. I mean Perfect Day really was a huge driver of ticket lift as well as onboard spend. I think with the Beach Club, it's a slightly different products. So it does kind of slip more into the short excursion onboard revenue frame. And so it's also a driver for itinerary as well because we're beginning to see that itineraries that include the Beach Club as well as Perfect Day seem to be driving even more demand than historically, which has been really strong. So I think we'll see that kind of combination of Beach Clubs really pushed through in onboard revenue and short excursions. And then the Perfect Day is typically a key driver of ticket.

    莎倫,我是麥可。是的,這是個好問題。我的意思是,Perfect Day 確實是機票價格上漲和機上消費成長的巨大推動力。我認為海灘俱樂部的產品略有不同。因此,它確實更多地屬於短途遊船上收入框架。因此,它也是行程的驅動因素,因為我們開始看到,包括海灘俱樂部和完美一天在內的行程似乎比歷史上任何時候都更能帶來需求,而且這種需求一直非常強勁。因此,我認為我們會看到這種海灘俱樂部的組合在船上收入和短途旅行方面真正取得進展。完美日通常是票房的關鍵驅動因素。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And Sharon, I think just to add on to Michael's point, it's got to modulate a little bit, right? Because the Perfect Day model tends to bring a lot of premium on the ticket side. And so we still have -- there's opportunity for us to grow more in CocoCay, but as Perfect Day Mexico comes online, that is probably a little bit more of a balance between ticket and onboard, when the beach clubs come online, it's more on the onboard side. So it will modulate a little bit here. The answer to all of it is it's great revenue. It's a great guest experience, great margins, great returns. And so it's a true kind of win-win opportunity for everybody.

    是的。莎倫,我想補充一下麥可的觀點,它需要稍微調整一下,對吧?因為「完美日」模式往往會在票務上帶來許多溢價。因此,我們仍然有機會在可可島實現更大的發展,但隨著 Perfect Day Mexico 上線,門票和船上服務之間可能需要更大的平衡,而當海灘俱樂部上線時,我們更注重船上服務。所以這裡會稍微調整一下。所有這一切的答案就是它能帶來巨大的收入。這是一次極佳的客戶體驗、豐厚的利潤和極佳的回報。因此,這對每個人來說都是一個真正的雙贏機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research.

    文斯·西皮爾(Vince Ciepiel),克里夫蘭研究公司。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Just wanted to clarify kind of the yield picture here in '25. The first half was up, I think, closer to 5%. Second half looks on track for 2.5% or maybe something a little bit north of that. Clearly, some moving pieces. How much of that decel is related to just tougher compares versus maybe less new hardware tailwind? Is new hardware still a tailwind for the second half on a year-over-year basis? Or is it kind of transition to a little bit of headwind. And then the last piece, obviously, is you've called out, I think, some port fees as well as dry dock as well as Haiti, etc. So there's a number of like isolated headwinds but just help us kind of bridge that step down first half versus the second half, if you could.

    只是想澄清一下 25 年的收益情況。我認為上半年的漲幅接近 5%。下半年的成長率可望達到 2.5%,或略高於這個數字。顯然,有一些移動的部分。這種減速在多大程度上與更嚴峻的競爭有關,還是與新硬體的順風較少有關?與去年同期相比,新硬體是否仍是下半年的推手?或者這是一種向逆風的轉變。最後一點,顯然,我認為您提到了一些港口費用、乾船塢費用以及海地費用等。因此,存在一些孤立的逆風,但如果可以的話,這可以幫助我們彌合上半年與下半年之間的差距。

  • Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jason Liberty - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And thanks, Vince. So every quarter as something, right, because the ship delivery timing does impact those. These are large ships. And this year, we had two deliveries. I think the best way to look at it is you kind of look at it on a yearly basis, and that's -- if you kind of kind of look at it across the board, it's probably -- if you normalize all these quarter-over-quarter things, some of it was a '24, easy comp or a harder comp. And some of it is just some of these events and timing of ship deliveries and how we ramp up.

    是的。謝謝你,文斯。所以每季都會有事情發生,對吧,因為船舶交付時間確實會影響這些。這些都是大型船。今年,我們進行了兩次交付。我認為最好的觀察方式是以年度為單位來觀察,也就是說 - 如果你以整體來觀察,那麼很可能 - 如果你將所有這些季度環比情況正常化,那麼其中一些是 24 年內容易比較的,或者更難比較的。其中一些只是一些事件和船舶交付的時間以及我們如何加快速度。

  • But if you look at it on a yearly basis, that's a great, I think, just a way to look at our business. And it also subscribes to our formula, which we've said all along, this is how we manage the business. This is how we subscribe to that and then we drive to grow the business according to that formula, including the yield, the capacity and the cost.

    但如果你按年來看,我認為這是一種很好的審視我們業務的方式。它也符合我們的原則,我們一直說,這就是我們管理業務的方式。這就是我們認同的,然後我們根據這個公式推動業務成長,包括收益、產能和成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的安德魯·迪多拉。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • Actually, Naf, I just wanted to touch on the bond deal quickly to finance the Celebrity Xcel. Obviously, not a usual way to finance a ship, but certainly makes sense given the rate differential. I guess my question -- are you pretty much indifferent in how you finance the ships right now as long as there is that rate benefit? And out of curiosity, are there any additional benefits of tapping the unsecured market as opposed to the ECA financing?

    實際上,Naf,我只是想快速談談為 Celebrity Xcel 提供資金的債券交易。顯然,這不是為船舶融資的常用方式,但考慮到利率差異,這肯定是有意義的。我想我的問題是——只要有利率優惠,您對現在如何為船舶融資漠不關心嗎?出於好奇,與 ECA 融資相比,利用無擔保市場還有其他好處嗎?

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Great question. And so, yeah, for now, we're in a place where we have a very strong investment-grade balance sheet. We're benefiting from rates that are basically commensurate with our financial performance and our ratings. And so when we evaluate that we look at it and we say, what does that make sense to finance with -- the ECA, obviously, they're great partners. We're very grateful to kind of the partnership we have.

    是的。好問題。是的,就目前而言,我們的資產負債表非常強勁,屬於投資等級。我們受益的利率基本上與我們的財務表現和評級相稱。因此,當我們評估這一點時,我們會考慮,用什麼來融資才有意義——顯然,ECA 是很好的合作夥伴。我們非常感謝我們之間的這種合作關係。

  • It's obviously very important during the construction period to have the financing and these ships will -- they always have that committed financing in place also post-delivery, which is obviously very valuable. But when we come to the decision, when we take the ship, we have this alternative. And for this one, we negotiated this financing several years ago when credit rating was not as good as today. And so our improvement in the capital markets was quite substantial. And so when we looked at that, it just made more sense and much lower cost of capital.

    顯然,在建造期間獲得融資非常重要,而且這些船舶在交付後也始終會有承諾的融資,這顯然非常有價值。但是當我們做出決定,當我們乘船時,我們有這個選擇。對於這筆融資,我們幾年前就進行了談判,當時的信用評級不如今天。因此,我們在資本市場的進步是相當大的。因此,當我們考慮這一點時,它就更有意義,而且資本成本也低得多。

  • The other thing is just to remind everybody is these ECAs also have amortization payments. So when you look at the average tenure of the loan is roughly a little bit over six years. We're obviously now issuing 10-year piece of paper in the unsecured market. So it's not just that the cost is low, we also gain tenure with it. And obviously, the covenant package is a little bit different, too. So you have the benefit there.

    另一件事是要提醒大家的是,這些 ECA 也有攤還付款。因此,當您查看貸款的平均期限時,大約是六年多一點。顯然,我們現在正在無擔保市場發行 10 年期債券。因此,這不僅成本低,而且我們還能獲得終身職位。顯然,契約方案也有點不同。所以你從中受益。

  • So we're very happy with kind of how this went. We're going to continue to evaluate all the alternatives. It's very important to understand that all our ship financing. All our ship deliveries and orders will have committed financing going forward, and then we'll have that option to evaluate what's the best alternative for us when we take delivery.

    所以我們對事情的進展感到非常高興。我們將繼續評估所有替代方案。了解我們所有的船舶融資非常重要。我們所有的船舶交付和訂單都將獲得承諾的融資,然後我們將可以選擇在交付時評估對我們來說最好的替代方案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I will turn the call back over to Naftali for closing comments.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給納夫塔利,請他發表最後評論。

  • Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

    Naftali Holtz - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you. We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Blake will be available for any follow-ups. We wish you all a very good day.

    謝謝。我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的關注。布萊克將隨時準備好解答任何後續問題。我們祝福大家有個愉快的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。