皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Group second-quarter 2025 earnings call.

早安.我叫 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

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I would now like to introduce Blake Vanier, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Vanier, the floor is yours.

現在我想介紹投資者關係副總裁布萊克‧瓦尼爾 (Blake Vanier)。瓦尼埃先生，請您發言。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our second-quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of the Royal Caribbean brand.

大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。與我一起來到邁阿密的還有我們的執行長 Jason Liberty、我們的財務長 Naftali Holtz 以及皇家加勒比品牌總裁兼執行長 Michael Bayley。

Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解這些因素的描述。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。

Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our investor website and in our earnings release. Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency-adjusted basis.

此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標根據定義進行了調整，所有非 GAAP 項目的對帳表可在我們的投資者網站和收益報告中找到。除非我們另有說明，所有指標均以恆定貨幣調整為基礎。

Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our second quarter, the current booking environment, and our outlook for 2025. We will then open the call for your questions.

傑森將在電話會議開始時提供策略概述和業務最新進展。接下來，Naftali 將回顧我們的第二季、目前的預訂環境以及我們對 2025 年的展望。然後我們將開始回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

說完這些，我很高興將電話轉給傑森。

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. I am thrilled to share our strong second-quarter results and updated outlook for the year. Our world-class brands and the exceptional experiences they offer continue to resonate deeply with consumers driving both strong demand and excellent financial results.

謝謝你，布萊克，大家早安。我很高興與大家分享我們強勁的第二季業績和今年的最新展望。我們世界級的品牌及其提供的卓越體驗繼續與消費者產生深刻共鳴，從而推動了強勁的需求和出色的財務業績。

Our second-quarter results exceeded expectations mainly driven by stronger-than-expected close-in demand, a shift in the timing of some expenses, and favorability below the line that was mainly driven by the outperformance of our TUI Cruises joint venture and lower interest costs. We are also increasing our earnings guidance for the year and now expect adjusted earnings per share to grow 31% year over year.

我們第二季的業績超出預期，主要原因是近距離需求強於預期、部分費用發生時間的轉變，以及線下有利因素，這主要得益於我們的 TUI Cruises 合資企業的優異表現和較低的利息成本。我們也提高了今年的獲利預期，目前預計調整後每股收益將年增 31%。

We are delivering exceptional value to our guests while continuously raising the bar with a powerful pipeline of industry and segment-leading new ships, a growing portfolio of meaningfully differentiated land-based private destinations, adding new experiences to our ecosystem like river cruising, and deploying unmatched digital and AI innovation to enhance the guest experience and maximize margins.

我們為賓客提供卓越的價值，同時不斷提高標準，擁有強大的行業和領域領先的新船陣容，不斷增長的具有顯著差異化的陸基私人目的地組合，為我們的生態系統增添河流巡航等新體驗，並部署無與倫比的數位和人工智慧創新，以增強賓客體驗並最大化利潤。

These key differentiators and accelerators are resulting in another significant increase to this year's earnings estimates and accelerating our path to achieving our perfective financial targets by 2027 as we continue to win share on the rapidly growing $2 trillion global vacation market.

這些關鍵的差異化因素和加速器將使今年的獲利預期再次大幅提升，並加速我們實現 2027 年完美財務目標的步伐，因為我們將繼續在快速成長的 2 兆美元全球度假市場中贏得份額。

Like we have said before, our ambitions go well beyond Perfecta as our strategic initiatives are designed to drive significant growth for years to come. In 2028 alone, we expect significant benefits from our current strategies, which, among many others, include the launches of Oasis 7 and Edge 6 as well as full year benefit of Icon 4, the full-year operation of Perfect Day Mexico, Royal Beach Club Lelepa at full capacit, and the first complete operational year of Celebrity River.

正如我們之前所說，我們的目標遠不止 Perfecta，因為我們的策略性舉措旨在推動未來幾年的顯著成長。僅在 2028 年，我們預計當前策略就會帶來顯著收益，其中包括 Oasis 7 和 Edge 6 的推出、Icon 4 的全年收益、Perfect Day Mexico 的全年運營、Royal Beach Club Lelepa 的滿負荷運營以及 Celebrity River 的第一個完整運營年。

As we advance our journey to help our guests turn the vacation of a lifetime into a lifetime of vacations, we're already creating lasting memories for our growing guest base and significant long-term value for our shareholders. I want to thank the entire team here at the Royal Caribbean Group for their passion, dedication and commitment to continue to deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly every single day.

隨著我們不斷推進旅程，幫助客人將一生難忘的假期變成終身難忘的假期，我們已經為不斷增長的客人群創造了持久的回憶，並為股東創造了重大的長期價值。我要感謝皇家加勒比集團的全體團隊，感謝他們的熱情、奉獻和承諾，繼續以負責任的態度每天為遊客提供最佳的度假體驗。

Turning to our results and outlook. In the second quarter, our capacity increased 6% as we delivered over 2 million incredible vacations, a 10% increase year over year at high guest satisfaction scores. Net yield grew 5.2%, 70 basis points higher than our guidance that was driven by better-than-expected close-in demand across all key itineraries.

談談我們的結果和展望。在第二季度，我們的運能成長了 6%，為遊客提供了超過 200 萬次精彩的假期，年增 10%，客人滿意度也很高。淨收益率成長 5.2%，比我們的預期高出 70 個基點，這得益於所有主要行程的近距離需求好於預期。

Yield growth was split evenly between new hardware and the existing fleet. Load factor was 110%, 2 percentage points higher than last year, driven by contributions from new ships and improvements on a like-for-like basis across our itineraries, highlighting the continued strength and demand for our brands.

產量成長在新硬體和現有設備之間平均分配。載客率為 110%，比去年高出 2 個百分點，這得益於新船的貢獻以及我們整個行程的同類改進，凸顯了我們品牌的持續實力和需求。

We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $4.38 for the second quarter, which was 36% higher than last year and exceeded our guidance by $0.33. The outperformance was driven by better revenue, a shift in the timing of some expenses and better below-the-line performance. Naftali will elaborate more on Q2 results in a few minutes.

我們第二季調整後每股盈餘為4.38美元，較去年同期成長36%，超出我們的預期0.33美元。這一優異表現得益於收入成長、部分費用支出時間的調整以及離線業績的提升。納夫塔利將在幾分鐘內詳細說明第二季的業績。

Now I'll provide some insight into the demand environment. Bookings have accelerated since the last earnings call, particularly for closing families. We continue to see engaged and excited consumers with roughly 75% intending to spend the same or more on leisure travel over the next 12 months.

現在我將對需求環境提供一些見解。自上次收益電話會議以來，預訂量有所增加，特別是對於即將結束的家庭而言。我們繼續看到積極參與且興奮的消費者，其中約 75% 的消費者打算在未來 12 個月內在休閒旅遊上花費相同或更多的錢。

At the same time, more than half of consumers tell us they are booking closer to their departure date than they used to. And for the people who intend to travel over the next 12 months, the majority have not yet booked. Our book position is in line with prior years at higher APDs for both 2025 and 2026.

同時，超過一半的消費者告訴我們，他們現在預訂機票的時間比以前更接近出發日期。而對於那些打算在未來12個月內旅行的人來說，大多數人還沒有預訂。我們的帳面狀況與前幾年一致，2025 年和 2026 年的 APD 均較高。

In addition, onboard spend and pre-cruise purchases continue to exceed prior years. These trends are supported by the exceptional strength in our digital channels in terms of both cruise bookings and pre-cruise purchases.

此外，船上消費和航行前購買量持續超過往年。這些趨勢得到了我們數位管道在郵輪預訂和郵輪前購買方面的卓越實力的支持。

Our spectacular new ships continue to generate strong quality demand. Earlier this month, we took delivery of Star of the Seas, and I can say that she is just as impressive as we have intended. We look forward to her star-studded launch in just a few weeks. Bookings for Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel, which is coming in the fourth quarter, are strong in both pricing and load factor.

我們出色的新船繼續產生強勁的品質需求。本月初，我們接收了「海洋之星號」，我可以說，她正如我們預期的那樣令人印象深刻。我們期待著幾週後她眾星雲集的亮相。即將於第四季推出的「海洋之星號」和「名人 Xcel」號的預訂情況在價格和載客率方面都十分強勁。

We also recently opened the Royal Beach Club Paradise Island for sale and early demand has been incredibly strong, reinforcing our strategy of delivering exclusive destination-led experiences and elevate the vacation value proposition within our ecosystem.

我們最近也開放了皇家海灘俱樂部天堂島進行銷售，早期需求非常強勁，這強化了我們提供獨家目的地主導體驗的策略，並提升了我們生態系統中的度假價值主張。

We conduct independent research and leverage data points for millions of daily interactions with our customers. We continue to see very positive sentiment from our customers, bolstered by strong labor markets, high wages, surplus savings, and elevated wealth levels. Overall, consumers remain financially confident with three out of four indicating that they feel financially secure.

我們進行獨立研究並利用與客戶每天數百萬次互動的數據點。受強勁的勞動力市場、高薪、剩餘儲蓄和財富水平提高的推動，我們繼續看到客戶的非常積極的情緒。整體而言，消費者仍然對財務充滿信心，四分之三的消費者表示他們感到財務安全。

Leisure and travel spend continues to grow, and leisure travel continues to be the number one category when consumers plan to increase spending over the next 12 months. That's outpacing dining, live entertainment, shopping, and even self-care.

休閒和旅遊支出持續成長，休閒旅遊仍然是消費者計劃在未來 12 個月增加支出的首要類別。這超過了餐飲、現場娛樂、購物甚至自我照顧。

We are also seeing strong intent across demographics, particularly among millennials and younger who continue to represent half of our customer base. They not only express a desire to travel more, but are increasingly choosing cruise vacations as the preferred way to celebrate meaningful life moments.

我們也看到不同人群的強烈意願，特別是千禧世代和更年輕的一代，他們仍然占我們客戶群的一半。他們不僅表達了更多旅行的願望，而且越來越多地選擇郵輪度假作為慶祝有意義的生活時刻的首選方式。

Roughly 7 in 10 consumers in these younger generations are also more likely to book closer to departure, reflecting a desire for responsibility and flexibility. In addition, more than half of the millennials tell us that they are more likely to consider cruising today compared to two years ago, driven mainly by the attractive value proposition of cruise.

大約有七成的年輕消費者也更有可能在接近出發時預訂機票，這反映出他們對責任感和彈性的渴望。此外，超過一半的千禧世代告訴我們，與兩年前相比，他們現在更有可能考慮搭乘郵輪，這主要是因為郵輪的價值主張更具吸引力。

Value continues to be a critical driver. Consumers consistently cite cruises as offering excellent value for money, thanks to our all-inclusive pricing, high-quality products, and the unique opportunity to experience multiple destinations in a single trip. And among those who were once skeptical of cruising and growing share now say they are more likely to consider it than they were two years ago.

價值仍然是關鍵驅動因素。消費者一致認為遊輪旅行物超所值，這得益於我們的全包價格、高品質產品以及一次旅行體驗多個目的地的獨特機會。而那些曾經對郵輪旅行和日益增長的市場份額持懷疑態度的人現在表示，他們比兩年前更有可能考慮郵輪旅行。

Meanwhile, repeat cruisers continue to rate cruising as the best value for their vacation spend. With brands that consistently lead in guest satisfaction and vacation options that range from weekend getaways to bucket list adventures on ocean and on land, we continue to deliver on consumers' evolving expectations.

同時，重複乘坐郵輪的遊客仍然將郵輪旅行評為最有價值的度假方式。我們的品牌在賓客滿意度和度假選擇方面始終處於領先地位，從週末度假到海上和陸地上的願望清單冒險，我們不斷滿足消費者不斷變化的期望。

Moving to our outlook for 2025. The year is on track to be another record year with net yield expected to grow in the range of 3.5% to 4%, supported by new ships, like-for-like increases, and the continued success of our private destinations.

展望 2025 年。今年預計再創紀錄，淨收益率預計將成長 3.5% 至 4%，這得益於新船、同類成長以及私人目的地的持續成功。

Our yield guidance does not factor in a further acceleration of closing demand within the quarter like we have recently seen. If current trends continue, it could lead to further yield growth above our guidance for the second half of the year.

我們的收益率指引並未將本季內成交需求的進一步加速考慮在內，就像我們最近看到的那樣。如果目前的趨勢持續下去，今年下半年的收益率可能會進一步成長，超過我們的預期。

Full year adjusted earnings per share is now expected to grow 31% and be in the range of $15.41 to $15.55. The improved guidance reflects our better-than-expected second-quarter performance, lower-than-expected spend, and continued favorability below the line for the remainder of the year.

預計全年調整後每股收益將成長31%，介於15.41美元至15.55美元之間。此次調整後的業績預期反映了我們第二季業績好於預期、支出低於預期，以及對今年剩餘時間業績持續看好。

In the third quarter, we expect to grow yields 2% to 2.5% on top of almost 8% yield increase in the same quarter last year. Our expected yield growth for the quarter is driven almost entirely by like-for-like hardware as Star of the Seas launch is very late in the quarter after the peak summer season. This timing, along with the operational ramp-up period, where we purposely limit load factor to ensure an exceptional experience impacts its contributions and creates a headwind to yield for the quarter of approximately 150 basis points.

我們預計第三季收益率將在去年同期近 8% 的收益率增幅基礎上成長 2% 至 2.5%。由於「海洋之星號」的下水時間是在夏季旺季過後本季末，因此我們預計本季的收益成長幾乎完全由同類硬體推動。在這個時間點，加上營運加速期，我們刻意限制了載客率，以確保卓越的體驗能夠影響其貢獻，並對本季的收益造成約 150 個基點的阻力。

Our proven formula is working, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and strong cost discipline, and is driving significant earnings growth, continued margin expansion and robust cash flow generation. We remain on track to achieve our Perfecta targets a 20% compound annual growth rate and adjusted earnings per share through 2027 and a return on invested capital in the high teens. But our ambitions, as we said before, go well beyond.

我們經過驗證的公式是有效的，適度的產能成長，適度的產量成長，以及嚴格的成本控制，並正在推動顯著的獲利成長、持續的利潤率擴大和強勁的現金流產生。我們仍有望實現 Perfecta 的目標，即在 2027 年實現 20% 的複合年增長率和調整後每股收益，以及達到十幾歲的投資資本回報率。但正如我們之前所說，我們的目標遠不止於此。

We are well positioned for our most ambitious chapter yet. It will reshape the vacation landscape and expand our leadership in leisure travel. It all begins with our world-class portfolio of brands, each leading and being the champion of their respective categories, both in trust and satisfaction while meeting the evolving needs of our guests. We amplify that strength with the most innovative ships, exclusive private destinations, and a connected ecosystem that makes planning and enjoying a vacation seamless and rewarding.

我們已經做好了準備，迎接迄今為止最雄心勃勃的篇章。它將重塑度假格局並擴大我們在休閒旅遊領域的領導地位。這一切都始於我們世界一流的品牌組合，每個品牌都是各自領域的領導者和冠軍，在信任和滿意度方面均處於領先地位，同時滿足了客人不斷變化的需求。我們透過最具創新性的船舶、獨特的私人目的地和互聯的生態系統來增強這一優勢，使計劃和享受假期變得無縫且有益。

Over the next few years, we plan to introduce seven new ships, including Star of the Seas, Celebrity Xcel later this year, followed by Legend of the Seas in 2026, Icon 4, and our first Celebrity River in 2027. In 2028, we'll deliver Oasis 7 and Edge 6, the next ship in the Celebrity Edge class. This study lineup will support our moderate capacity growth, enhance our global reach and further differentiate our collection of vacation brands.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們計劃推出 7 艘新船，包括今年稍後推出的“海洋之星”號和“名人 Xcel”號，隨後是 2026 年推出的“海洋傳奇”號、“Icon 4”號，以及 2027 年推出的第一艘“名人河”號。2028 年，我們將交付 Oasis 7 號和 Edge 6 號，後者是 Celebrity Edge 級的下一艘船。這項研究陣容將支持我們適度的容量成長，增強我們的全球影響力，並進一步區分我們的度假品牌系列。

On land, we're expanding our destination portfolio with Royal Beach Club Paradise Island opening in the Bahamas later this year, Royal Beach Club Cozumel at the end of 2026, then in late 2027, Perfect Day in Mexico, which is approximately the size of the Magic Kingdom in Orlando will debut.

在陸地上，我們正在擴大我們的目的地組合，今年晚些時候將在巴哈馬群島開設皇家海灘俱樂部天堂島，2026 年底開設皇家海灘俱樂部科蘇梅爾，然後在 2027 年底，墨西哥的完美一天 (Perfect Day) 也將亮相，其規模與奧蘭多的魔幻王國相當。

Earlier this month, we officially closed on our acquisition of the Puerto Costa Maya and are now well underway in bringing this exciting destination to life. In 2027, we'll expand the reach of our Royal Beach Club collection to the South Pacific with Royal Beach Club Lelepa. These experiences are located across key strategic markets and are engineered to generate premium yields and returns for years to come.

本月初，我們正式完成了對 Puerto Costa Maya 的收購，目前我們正全力以赴地將這個令人興奮的目的地變為現實。2027 年，我們將透過 Royal Beach Club Lelepa 將 Royal Beach Club 系列的影響力拓展至南太平洋。這些經驗遍布關鍵策略市場，旨在未來幾年產生優質的收益和回報。

Central to our destination strategy is a commitment to the economic development of these communities, generating thousands of jobs, championing environmental restoration, improving wastewater treatment, conserving local native plants and species, and supporting robust recycling programs, as well as providing educational and training programs and infrastructure investment in roads and community centers. Our commercial flywheel is accelerating as we deepen relationships with our customers through digital innovation to remove friction, drive commercial opportunities, and lower acquisition costs.

我們的目的地策略的核心是致力於這些社區的經濟發展，創造數千個就業機會，倡導環境恢復，改善廢水處理，保護當地的本土植物和物種，支持強有力的回收計劃，以及提供教育和培訓計劃以及道路和社區中心的基礎設施投資。隨著我們透過數位創新加深與客戶的關係，消除摩擦、推動商業機會並降低收購成本，我們的商業飛輪正在加速運轉。

Repeat bookings are meaningfully rising and cross-brand loyalty is accelerating with nearly 40% of all bookings coming from our loyalty members who spend 25% more per trip.

重複預訂量顯著上升，跨品牌忠誠度也在加速提升，近 40% 的預訂來自我們的忠誠會員，他們每次旅行的花費增加 25%。

Nearly 50% of onboard purchases are now coming through the mobile app compared to a third at the end of 2023. As a reminder, customers who purchase onboard experiences before their cruise spend about 2.5 times more than those who do not buy pre-cruise. We are investing in a modern digital travel platform, infusing AI into almost everything we do and investing in enriched data to make it easier than ever for guests to book and design their dream vacations while allowing us to expand wallet share.

目前，近 50% 的機上購買是透過行動應用程式進行的，而 2023 年底這一比例為三分之一。提醒一下，在航行前購買船上體驗服務的顧客比沒有購買航行前體驗服務的顧客花費大約多 2.5 倍。我們正在投資一個現代化的數位旅遊平台，將人工智慧融入我們所做的幾乎所有事情中，並投資豐富的數據，讓客人比以往更輕鬆地預訂和設計他們的夢想假期，同時讓我們擴大錢包份額。

App downloads have now surpassed $30 million and long-term adoption is increasing. We continue to invest in more commercial and experienced capabilities, increasing interactions, and enhancing commercial features.

應用程式下載量現已超過 3,000 萬美元，長期採用率也不斷提高。我們將繼續投資更多的商業和經驗豐富的能力，增加互動，並增強商業功能。

Looking ahead, we are incredibly energized by the momentum we are building. These ambitious initiatives reinforce our flywheel, strengthen our ecosystem, and unlock powerful new pathways for long-term growth as we continue turning the vacation of a lifetime into a lifetime of vacations.

展望未來，我們正在形成的勢頭令我們充滿活力。這些雄心勃勃的舉措強化了我們的飛輪，增強了我們的生態系統，並為長期增長開闢了強大的新途徑，讓我們繼續將一生的假期變成一生的假期。

I am incredibly proud of our teams at Royal Caribbean Group for their dedication and strong execution. The opportunity ahead is significant, and we're well positioned to lead the next era of leisure travel.

我為皇家加勒比集團團隊的奉獻精神和強大的執行力感到無比自豪。未來的機會是巨大的，我們已準備好引領休閒旅遊的新時代。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Naftali. Naf?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給納夫塔利。納夫？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. I will start by reviewing second-quarter results. Net yields grew 5.2% in constant currency compared to the second quarter of last year, 70 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Yields grew across all key products and were evenly split between new and existing hardware. The yield outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected closing demand.

謝謝你，傑森，大家早安。我將首先回顧第二季度的業績。與去年第二季相比，淨收益率以固定匯率計算成長了 5.2%，比我們的預期中位數高出 70 個基點。所有主要產品的產量均有所成長，新硬體和現有硬體的產量均有所成長。收益率的優異表現是由於成交需求強於預期。

Onboard revenue was higher than last year across all key categories as we continue to see a very engaged consumer. In the second quarter, approximately half of our onboard spend was booked before the sailing with three out of four guests making pre-cruise purchases to reserve onboard experiences.

由於我們繼續看到消費者的積極參與，所有主要類別的機上收入都高於去年。在第二季度，我們大約一半的船上消費是在航行前預訂的，四分之三的客人在航行前購買以預訂船上體驗。

In the second quarter, we delivered 2.3 million incredible vacations. New to cruise or new to brand accounted for approximately 60% of our guests, of which more than half were millennials or younger. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, increased 2.1% in constant currency, 180 basis points lower than our initial guidance, driven by shifting of timing of spend that will roll into the second half of the year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 41%, 300 basis points better than last year and operating cash flow was $1.7 billion.

第二季度，我們提供了 230 萬次精彩假期。我們約有 60% 的客人是新乘坐郵輪或新認識品牌的，其中超過一半是千禧世代或更年輕的一代。扣除燃料在內的淨郵輪成本按固定匯率計算增長了 2.1%，比我們最初的預期低 180 個基點，這是由於支出時間的變化將延續到今年下半年。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 41%，比去年高出 300 個基點，營運現金流量為 17 億美元。

Adjusted earnings per share were $4.38, 36% higher than last year and 8% higher than the midpoint of our guidance. Earnings outperformance was driven by the strong close-in demand, shifting timing of spend, and favorability below the line. $0.10 per share of favorable timing of spend is expected to roll into the second half of 2025.

調整後每股收益為 4.38 美元，比去年同期高出 36%，比我們的預期中位數高出 8%。強勁的近距離需求、不斷變化的支出時機以及低於預期的有利因素推動了獲利表現優異。預計每股 0.10 美元的有利支出時機將持續到 2025 年下半年。

As Jason mentioned, demand for our portfolio of brands and industry-leading experiences continue to be very strong. Bookings have accelerated since the last earnings call, particularly for closing sailings leading to the second-quarter outperformance. Our book load factor is in line with prior years and higher APDs.

正如傑森所說，對我們的品牌組合和行業領先體驗的需求持續強勁。自上次收益電話會議以來，預訂量有所增加，尤其是關閉航班導致第二季業績優異。我們的圖書載量與前幾年持平，且 APD 更高。

Capacity is expected to grow 6% for the full year and 3% in the third quarter. As expected, capacity in the third quarter is the lowest throughout the year and is impacted by the delivery timing of Star of the Seas in late August.

預計全年運力將成長 6%，第三季運力將成長 3%。正如預期的那樣，第三季的運力是全年最低的，並且受到「海洋之星號」於 8 月底交付時間的影響。

Looking ahead, fourth-quarter capacity growth is expected to be 10%, benefiting from a full quarter of Star of the Seas, the launch of Celebrity Xcel, and additional APCDs due to lower dry dock days compared to 2024.

展望未來，預計第四季度運力成長將達到 10%，這得益於「海洋之星號」郵輪整個季度的營運、「名人 Xcel」號郵輪的下水，以及由於乾船塢使用天數較 2024 年減少而導致的額外 APCD。

The Caribbean represents 57% of our deployment this year and 42% of capacity in the third quarter. Our leading hardware and private destinations strengthen our competitive position in this market for the introduction of Star of the Seas, Celebrity Xcel, and the opening of Royal Beach Club Paradise Island by the end of the year.

加勒比海地區占我們今年部署的 57%，佔第三季運力的 42%。我們領先的硬體和私人目的地加強了我們在這個市場上的競爭地位，以便在今年年底推出海洋之星號、名人 Xcel 號和皇家海灘俱樂部天堂島的開放。

Europe will account for 15% of capacity for the year and 28% in the third quarter. Alaska is expected to account for 6% of total capacity and 13% in the third quarter.

歐洲將佔全年運力的15%，第三季將佔28%。預計阿拉斯加航空的運能佔總運力的 6%，第三季的運能佔比為 13%。

Now let me talk about our revised guidance for 2025. Our proven formula for success moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and strong cost discipline is expected to drive significant earnings growth and higher cash flow generation this year. We are increasing our yield guidance for the year and now expect net yield growth of 3.5% to 4%, driven by second-quarter outperformance.

現在讓我談談我們對 2025 年的修訂指引。我們成功的秘訣是適度的產能成長、適度的產量成長和嚴格的成本控制，預計將推動今年的獲利大幅成長和更高的現金流產生。我們正在提高今年的收益率預期，目前預計將受第二季優異表現的推動，淨收益率將成長 3.5% 至 4%。

As Jason mentioned, our yield guidance does not factor in further acceleration in close-in demand like we have seen recently, which could lead to more upside if these trends continue. The cadence of yield growth throughout the year, as expected, is driven by the timing of new ship deliveries and lower dry dock days in the fourth quarter. The impact on yield growth is approximately 150 basis points in the third quarter and approximately 90 basis points in the fourth quarter.

正如傑森所提到的，我們的殖利率指引並未將近期需求的進一步加速考慮在內，如果這些趨勢持續下去，可能會帶來更多的上行空間。正如預期的那樣，全年收益成長的節奏受到第四季度新船交付時間和乾船塢天數減少的推動。對殖利率成長的影響在第三季約為150個基點，在第四季約為90個基點。

Full-year net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be approximately 0.3%, 10 basis points lower than our prior guidance as we remain focused on efficiency, enhancing margins, and maximizing cash flow.

由於我們仍然專注於提高效率、提高利潤率和最大化現金流，預計全年淨郵輪成本（不包括燃料）約為 0.3%，比我們先前預期的低 10 個基點。

While we manage our costs more on a yearly basis, the cadence of our cost growth varies throughout the year. This is driven by timing of dry docks, ship deliveries, and the ramp-up of costs related to our acquisition of the Costa Maya Port and other new private destinations. We anticipate a fuel expense of $1.14 billion for the year, and we are 66% hedged at below market rates.

雖然我們更多是按年度管理成本，但成本增長的節奏在全年中有所不同。這是由於乾船塢、船舶交付的時間以及與我們收購科斯塔瑪雅港和其他新的私人目的地相關的成本增加所致。我們預計今年的燃料費用為 11.4 億美元，並且我們以低於市場價格的價格進行了 66% 的避險。

Based on our current fuel prices, currency exchange rates and interest rates, we expect adjusted earnings per share between $15.41 and $15.55. The 43% increase compared to our prior guidance is driven by Q2 outperformance of $0.23, taking into account $0.10 of timing shift of spend, and $0.20 benefit from lower spend and below-the-line favorability for the remainder of the year.

根據我們目前的燃油價格、匯率和利率，我們預計調整後每股收益將在 15.41 美元至 15.55 美元之間。相較於我們先前的預期，本季獲利成長 43%，這得益於第二季業績超出預期 0.23 美元，其中考慮到 0.10 美元的支出時間調整，以及 0.20 美元的支出下降和今年剩餘時間的低於預期的利多因素。

We also expect 17% growth in adjusted EBITDA and 260 basis points growth in adjusted EBITDA margin. This positions us to accelerate our cash flow generation, which allows us to continue investing in our strategic initiatives, maintaining investment-grade balance sheet metrics, and expanding capital return to shareholders.

我們也預期調整後的 EBITDA 將成長 17%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將成長 260 個基點。這使我們能夠加速現金流的產生，使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的策略計劃，維持投資等級資產負債表指標，並擴大股東的資本回報。

Now let me comment on third-quarter guidance. In the third quarter, we expect capacity will be up 3% year over year and a net yield growth of 2% to 2.5% driven almost entirely by like-for-like hardware as Star of the Seas launches very late in the quarter.

現在讓我對第三季的指導進行評論。我們預計第三季運力將年增 3%，淨收益率將成長 2% 至 2.5%，幾乎完全受同類硬體的推動，因為「海洋之星號」將在本季末推出。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up 6% to 6.5%, approximately 230 basis points of cost growth is attributable to the timing of delivery of Star of the Seas and the cost timing shift from the second quarter. Taking all this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the quarter to be $5.55 to $5.65.

不包括燃料的淨郵輪成本預計將上漲 6% 至 6.5%，其中約 230 個基點的成本增長歸因於「海洋之星號」的交付時間以及第二季度以來的成本時間轉變。考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計本季調整後每股收益為 5.55 美元至 5.65 美元。

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a strong $7.1 billion in liquidity. We are in a very strong financial position and will continue to further strengthen the balance sheet.

轉向我們的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的流動資金達到 71 億美元。我們的財務狀況非常強勁，並將繼續進一步加強資產負債表。

During the first half of the year, we received investment-grade ratings by all three major credit agencies, reflecting the strength of our financial position, consistent performance, and disciplined capital allocation strategy. We are proud of the hard work that has brought us here and remain committed to maintaining the strong momentum.

今年上半年，我們獲得了三大信用機構的投資等級評級，這反映了我們強勁的財務狀況、穩定的業績和嚴謹的資本配置策略。我們為所付出的辛勤努力感到自豪，並將繼續致力於保持強勁的發展勢頭。

In addition, we amended and upsized our two unsecured revolving credit facilities during the quarter bringing the combined revolving credit facilities commitments to $6.4 billion and extending the maturity of one facility to October 2030.

此外，我們在本季修改並增加了兩筆無擔保循環信貸額度，使循環信貸額度承諾總額達到 64 億美元，並將一筆信貸額度的到期日延長至 2030 年 10 月。

With a strong balance sheet, we are committed to investing in our growth strategies, delivering a competitive dividend yield, and opportunistically, buying back shares. We have very limited maturities left for this year, all related to ship amortization payments that we plan to repay with cash flow.

憑藉強勁的資產負債表，我們致力於投資於我們的成長策略，提供有競爭力的股息殖利率，並適時回購股票。我們今年剩餘的到期債務非常有限，全部與船舶攤提付款有關，我們計劃用現金流償還。

We also expect leverage to be at [mid-2] turns by the end of 2025. In closing, we remain committed and focused on our mission to deliver the base vacation experiences responsibly as we work to deliver another year of strong performance.

我們也預計，到 2025 年底，槓桿率將達到 [2 倍中段]。最後，我們將繼續致力於並專注於我們的使命，以負責任的方式提供基礎度假體驗，努力實現另一年的強勁表現。

With that, I will ask the operator to open the call for a Q&A session.

有了這些，我將要求接線員開啟電話會議，進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的馬修·博斯。

Congrats on another great quarter. So Jason, could you elaborate on the continued acceleration in demand that you cited for your brands and experiences. Have you seen any change in July booking trends? And maybe could you speak to the playbook for offense that it seems like you're laying out with investments and initiatives to stay ahead of where demand is going in that $2 trillion growing global vacation market?

恭喜您又一個出色的季度。那麼 Jason，您能否詳細說明您提到的對您的品牌和體驗的需求持續加速的情況。您發現七月份的預訂趨勢有什麼變化嗎？您能否談談進攻策略？看起來您正在製定投資和計劃，以便在價值 2 兆美元的不斷增長的全球度假市場中保持領先地位？

Sure. Well, thanks, Matt, and I hope you're doing well. I think just to first start off, one of the things that we have seen of weight is just this kind of overall acceleration in close-in demand, which is a little bit different. We've seen close-in demand acceleration, but we have seen that kind of further shift in behavior, which I commented is not something we typically contemplate in our forward-looking guidance.

當然。好吧，謝謝，馬特，希望你一切都好。我認為首先，我們看到的重量變化之一就是近距離需求的整體加速，這有點不同。我們已經看到近距離需求加速，但我們也看到了這種行為的進一步轉變，我評論說這不是我們在前瞻性指引中通常會考慮的事情。

And that's -- it's not just on the ticket size. It's also what we're seeing on onboard spend. So we -- the policies we get to see millions of spending activities per day. We see a very healthy customer. When we dig into that customer, they have strong -- they have great jobs. They have strong balance sheets and they're confident in spending and making sure that they're receiving the vacation experience that they're looking for.

這不僅與票價大小有關。這也是我們在船上消費看到的情況。因此，我們制定的政策是每天看到數百萬的消費活動。我們看到一位非常健康的顧客。當我們深入了解該客戶時，他們擁有強大的東西——他們擁有出色的工作。他們的資產負債表強勁，對消費充滿信心，並確保獲得他們想要的度假體驗。

So again, I think all turns are green on the customer at this point in time. And they're traveling all over the world. We're seeing that not just in North America, but we're also seeing that in European travel activity.

所以，我再說一遍，我認為此時此刻，所有轉彎對客戶來說都是綠色的。他們正在世界各地旅行。我們不僅在北美看到了這種情況，而且在歐洲的旅遊活動中也看到了這種情況。

I think as we think about going on the offense, I think first, just grounding that Ultimately, what we're trying to do and what we always do is we orbit ourselves around our guests, around our customer. We focused on this.

我認為，當我們考慮採取進攻行動時，首先要確定的是，最終，我們正在嘗試做的和我們一直在做的是圍繞我們的客人、圍繞我們的客戶。我們專注於此。

I know it's a tagline of going from a vacation to a lifetime to a lifetime of vacations. But it's very important for us as we think about how do we increase our repetition with our customers. And you're already starting to see signs of that offense coming forward here with an increase in the number of loyalty members that are sailing with us that has now inched up to 40%.

我知道這是一個從一次假期到一生再到一生假期的標語。但當我們思考如何增加客戶的重複購買率時，這對我們來說非常重要。而且您已經開始看到這種犯罪行為的跡象，與我們一起航行的忠誠會員數量正在增加，目前已上升至 40%。

So we're trying to increase repetition, which ultimately leads to an increase in lifetime value of the customer, lowers our acquisition cost, and positions us to close the gap further to land-based vacation. So we are chasing -- closing that gap to -- of the industry is probably around $80 million, $85 billion on the $2 trillion leisure market that is out there.

因此，我們正在嘗試增加重複性，最終會增加客戶的終身價值，降低我們的收購成本，並使我們進一步縮小與陸上度假的差距。因此，我們正在努力縮小這一差距，在價值 2 兆美元的休閒市場中，該產業的利潤約為 8,000 萬美元到 850 億美元。

We're doing that in several ways. Obviously, when you look at it on a -- on structural items like ships like we're excelling in the core. So we're investing and growing our fleet. We have, I think, a very clear reputation of designing and building the most innovative ships and not just the industry but also in our respective segments.

我們正在透過多種方式實現這一目標。顯然，當你從船舶等結構性項目的角度來看時，我們在核心方面表現出色。因此我們正在投資並擴大我們的船隊。我認為，我們在設計和建造最具創新性的船舶方面享有盛譽，不僅在行業內，而且在我們各自的領域也是如此。

We're continuing to grow our brands. We're modernizing our fleet. So those ships are highly competitive and are in line with what the customer today is looking for. We are meaningfully investing in destination experiences. We have three announced Royal Beach Club. So we have one announced Perfect Day in Mexico that we're building in addition to the one that we have in the Bahamas.

我們正在繼續發展我們的品牌。我們正在對我們的艦隊進行現代化改造。因此，這些船舶具有很強的競爭力，並且符合當今客戶的需求。我們正在對目的地體驗進行有意義的投資。我們已宣布三個皇家海灘俱樂部。因此，除了巴哈馬的完美日活動外，我們還宣布將在墨西哥推出完美日活動。

Again, meeting our customers what they're looking to do, and we're able to do that not just by benefiting from the volume but also enhancing the guest experience as those destinations tend to be the highest rate destinations that are out there.

再次，滿足客戶的需求，我們不僅能夠從數量上獲益，還能提升客戶體驗，因為這些目的地往往是價格最高的目的地。

We're also expanding the experiences that we're delivering, right? And you can see that in our -- in the addition of River in 2027 and also even in the hotel that we're building in the southern part of Chile, which creates differentiation in anyone who's looking to visit North America.

我們也在擴展我們提供的體驗，對嗎？您可以從我們的計劃中看到這一點——2027 年新增的 River 項目，以及我們正在智利南部建造的酒店，這些都為想要遊覽北美的遊客帶來了差異化。

And then lastly, all around this is heavily investing in our commercial apparatus, right? So it's what is interacting with our guests each and every day. And we're utilizing disruptive technology like AI and other tools to be able to million -- to manage [$15 million] price points a day and to be able to listen to what our customers are looking for and curate what our customers are looking for that are relevant to them. That enhances the experience for them, it takes friction out of the experience. It also allows us to be more efficient and gain more margin.

最後，這一切都是為了大力投資我們的商業設備，對嗎？這就是我們每天與客人互動的方式。我們正在利用人工智慧等顛覆性技術和其他工具來管理每天 1500 萬美元的價格點，並能夠傾聽客戶的需求，並整理出與客戶相關的內容。這增強了他們的體驗，消除了體驗中的摩擦。它還使我們更有效率並獲得更多利潤。

And then the other thing I would just add is we -- obviously, last year, we rolled out our integration across our brands on loyalty. We are focused on loyalty that matters, loyalty that really impacts guest behavior. So it has to be something that they appreciate, and it keeps them inside of our ecosystem.

然後我想補充的另一件事是——顯然，去年我們在我們的品牌中推出了忠誠度整合。我們關注的是真正影響客人行為的忠誠度。所以它必須是它們欣賞的東西，並且能將它們留在我們的生態系統中。

So I just kind of lay it out, like if you were to look at where we're investing in terms of especially what we've announced, that's what we're doing in order to make structural differentiation, deepen our moats continue to lead. And again, ultimately, our focus is not what's happening on the cruise competitor side, our focus is on how do we close that gap to land-based vacation because every 1 percentage point is worth a tremendous amount of money to the company and to our shareholders.

所以我只是把它說出來，如果你看看我們的投資領域，特別是我們已經宣布的，這就是我們正在做的事情，以便實現結構性差異化，加深我們的護城河，繼續保持領先。再說一次，最終我們的重點不是郵輪競爭對手的情況，而是我們如何縮小與陸地度假的差距，因為每 1 個百分點對公司和股東來說都是巨大的價值。

That's great color. Maybe as a follow up, Naftali, near term, what have you embedded for close-in demand in the back half relative to the outperformance that you saw in the first half? And then with more than 30% earnings growth now forecasted for this year, that's well above your Analyst Day CAGR. Just any puts and takes to consider as it relates to the phasing of investments multiyear beyond this year?

顏色真棒。也許作為後續問題，納夫塔利，短期來看，相對於上半年的優異表現，您在下半年嵌入了哪些近距離需求？目前預計今年的獲利成長率將超過 30%，遠高於分析師日的複合年增長率。由於這涉及今年以後多年的投資分階段實施，因此是否需要考慮任何利弊？

Yeah. Matt, so as we said in the prepared remarks, we gave guidance based on what we've seen in terms of bookings. But as we said, we have seen acceleration and so to the extent that there is further acceleration of the mail of closing demand, obviously, that creates an upside for the second half of the year. Also remember, we're fairly booked for the year. So we're kind of closing out a very successful year and now obviously focusing into next year towards in a couple of months.

是的。馬特，正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們根據預訂情況給出了指導。但正如我們所說，我們已經看到了加速，因此，如果成交需求的郵件進一步加速，顯然這將為下半年帶來上行空間。還要記住，我們今年的日程安排相當緊湊。因此，我們即將結束非常成功的一年，現在顯然要專注於幾個月後的明年。

In terms of what's embedded in the -- in our plans, so as you know, we've announced Perfecta and this is a 20% annual compounded growth of earnings through 2027. And everything that Jason just mentioned in terms of investments in ships, destinations, technology, modernization of our ships is really what's driving that moat and differentiated performance.

就我們的計劃而言，如您所知，我們已經宣布了 Perfecta，到 2027 年，其收益年複合成長率將達到 20%。傑森剛才提到的船舶、目的地、技術、船舶現代化的投資才是真正推動護城河和差異化表現的因素。

Now this year is obviously higher than that 20% CAGR. And so this positions us very well to achieve our Perfecta targets. And so the formula is working, and that's really what we're focused on, moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, strong cost control that obviously drives earnings, drive cash flow, and allows us to execute on our plans.

今年的複合年增長率顯然高於20%。因此，這讓我們非常有希望實現 Perfecta 目標。所以這個公式是有效的，這也是我們真正關注的重點，適度的產能增長，適度的產量增長，強有力的成本控制，這顯然會推動盈利，推動現金流，並使我們能夠執行我們的計劃。

One of the things that is important, and we said that also when we announced Perfecta, when we put out these targets, we did not embed any share buybacks into those plans. And so as we get the balance sheet to the range, and it is already within the range, obviously, we will be focused on capital return as a supplement to that growth. And that is in the form of share buybacks which we will opportunistically do and of course, dividend.

其中一個重要的事情是，我們在宣布 Perfecta 時也說過，當我們提出這些目標時，我們並沒有在這些計劃中嵌入任何股票回購。因此，當我們將資產負債表調整到該範圍內時，並且它已經在該範圍內，顯然，我們將專注於資本回報作為該成長的補充。我們將採取股票回購的形式（我們會適時進行），當然還有股利。

And we're very focused on competitive dividend. Now competitive dividend brings value to the shareholders but obviously does not factor in into earnings per share itself. But as you kind of look at it together, that's another area of that.

我們非常注重有競爭力的股利。現在有競爭力的股息為股東帶來了價值，但顯然並沒有計入每股收益本身。但當你綜合來看時，你會發現這是另一個領域。

And at the end of it, as Jason mentioned in his prepared remarks, Perfecta is just, for us, another milestone, but definitely not our ambition and we laid out just in 2028 tremendous tailwinds that we have from all the new ships and destinations that are coming online.

最後，正如傑森在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，Perfecta 對我們來說只是另一個里程碑，但絕對不是我們的雄心壯志，我們在 2028 年就制定了巨大的順風政策，這些順風政策來自所有新船和新目的地的上線。

So we're very much focused on building the moat and long-term shareholder value.

因此，我們非常注重建立護城河和長期股東價值。

Steven Wieczynski, Stifel.

史蒂文·維辛斯基（Steven Wieczynski），Stifel。

So Jason, I want to go back to the second half of the year guidance, which, obviously, you talked a lot about it doesn't incorporate any benefit from close-in booking momentum or kind of what you've seen in terms of onboard spend. So let me try to ask us question a little bit differently than Matt just kind of asked.

所以傑森，我想回到下半年的指導，顯然，您談了很多，它沒有考慮到近距離預訂勢頭的任何好處，也沒有考慮到您在機上支出方面所看到的好處。因此，讓我試著問一個與馬特剛才問的稍微不同的問題。

But let's say, Jason hypothetically, if closing demand stays as strong as what you've seen recently. And it sounds like given the feedback that you guys have gotten from your customer base, that's not going to change. And on board kind of stays the same way as well.

但是，傑森，讓我們假設一下，如果成交需求保持像你最近看到的那麼強勁。聽起來，根據你們從客戶群獲得的回饋，這種情況不會改變。船上的情況也基本保持相同。

Is there a way to think about what that would mean to yields in the back half of the year? And I guess, I'm probably just a little bit surprised that the -- when you think about the third quarter, being able to grow, let's call it, 4% on a like-for-like basis when you include the Star of the Seas impact off of a plus 8% last year. To us, that's kind of impressive.

有沒有辦法思考一下這對下半年的收益率意味著什麼？我想，我可能只是有點驚訝——當你想到第三季度時，如果算上「海洋之星」的影響，同比增長 4%，而去年同期的增長率為 8%。對我們來說，這真是令人印象深刻。

But I guess what I'm trying to figure out here is what could that mean for yields if everything kind of stays status quo. Hopefully, that kind of makes sense.

但我想我在這裡想弄清楚的是，如果一切保持現狀，這對收益意味著什麼。希望這能有意義。

Yeah. Yeah. Well, thanks for the question, Steve. And of course, it's even if you look at the third quarter, doing this from memory, but I think 2023 was close to 17% and last year, it was close to 8% on a yield improvement standpoint. And we do have -- we try to articulate, if you had a full quarter of Star, I mean what that would have looked like for us as all the Q3 is being driven by like-for-like demand generation.

是的。是的。嗯，謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。當然，即使你根據記憶來看第三季度，我認為從收益率改善的角度來看，2023 年接近 17%，而去年接近 8%。我們確實有——我們試圖表達，如果你擁有 Star 的完整季度，我的意思是這對我們來說會是什麼樣子，因為整個第三季度都是由同類需求生成驅動的。

So I mean, the answer is that if we see similar patterns, the answer is that the back half of the year will be better -- as of just commented, I mean, we are very well sold into the year. And so there's always the opportunity as we think about even in the third quarter, a couple of points of load factor that we still have left to build. There's opportunity there, and then that opportunity would be larger in the fourth quarter.

所以我的意思是，答案是，如果我們看到類似的模式，答案是今年下半年會更好 - 正如剛才評論的那樣，我的意思是，我們今年的銷售情況非常好。因此，我們認為即使在第三季也仍有機會提高幾個載客率。那裡有機會，而且第四季的機會會更大。

But we typically -- when we think about our forecast. We do try to do a 50-50 forecast, also when we put a forecast together, we typically want to look more than just a couple of months of demand points to kind of set that going forward. So we do see similar demand patterns, the answer is it's better stuff to actually quantify. If I could have quantified it, then we probably would have put that into our guidance for the year.

但我們通常——當我們考慮我們的預測時。我們確實嘗試做一個 50-50 的預測，而且當我們進行預測時，我們通常希望關注的不僅僅是幾個月的需求點，以便確定未來的發展。因此，我們確實看到了類似的需求模式，答案是，實際上量化是更好的選擇。如果我可以量化它，那麼我們可能會將其納入今年的指導中。

But I think the main takeaway is that the consumer is strong. There's strong demand for our brands. We're -- I think we have a very strong handle on costs and on our capital where we're investing. I think it's very clear where that is and it's there to not just support the business but to continue to differentiate the business.

但我認為主要的收穫是消費者實力強勁。我們的品牌需求旺盛。我認為我們對成本和投資資本有很強的控制力。我認為它的角色非常明確，它不僅是為了支持業務，也是為了繼續實現業務的差異化。

And 30%-plus earnings growth year over year is pretty spectacular, I think. And it's just another adding testament to how we keep finding opportunities to do better and we're never satisfied as our investors are never satisfied, I'm sure. So we're always looking to do more. And I think all these investments that will play itself out here over the coming years, especially on the destination side, really has an opportunity to have a really significant step change in our earnings power.

我認為，年復一年，獲利成長 30% 以上是相當可觀的。這只是再次證明我們一直在尋找機會做得更好，我們永遠不會滿足，因為我們的投資者永遠不會滿足，我敢肯定。因此我們始終希望能夠做得更多。我認為，未來幾年所有這些投資都將發揮作用，特別是在目的地方面的投資，確實有機會顯著提高我們的獲利能力。

Okay. That's great color, Jason. And then second question, going back to Perfecta. Obviously, you talked about how that's on track at this point. But those targets obviously end in 2027. So you mentioned all of these positive things that are going to be coming online in '28. They're going to help you guys out, whether that's Mexico, Oasis Class, Icon, River Cruise, and other private islands, the list kind of goes on.

好的。真漂亮的顏色，傑森。然後是第二個問題，回到 Perfecta。顯然，您談到了目前事情進展如何。但這些目標顯然會在 2027 年結束。所以你提到了所有這些將在 28 年實現的積極的事情。他們會幫助你們，無論是墨西哥島、綠洲島、圖標島、河流巡遊島或其他私人島嶼，不勝枚舉。

So I guess my question actually is you guys are sitting here today, should we think that 2028 could see earnings growth at least in line with your Perfecta targets? That's probably even say maybe if not higher than that.

所以我想我的問題實際上是，你們今天坐在這裡，我們是否應該認為 2028 年的獲利成長至少可以與 Perfecta 目標保持一致？這可能甚至可能更高。

Well, I think it's -- I appreciate you pointing it out. Obviously, a lot of these investments take time to design and build and bring them online. And of course, when we bring these things online, we're very thoughtful in the ramp-up because we only have one chance -- as my mom said, you have one chance to make a good impression on somebody.

嗯，我認為——我很感謝你指出這一點。顯然，許多此類投資都需要時間來設計、建造和上線。當然，當我們把這些東西放到網路上時，我們會非常謹慎，因為我們只有一次機會——就像我媽媽說的，你只有一次機會給別人留下好印象。

And so we're really thoughtful about that. And so I think to your point, when you look into 2028 and you see basically, I mean, we've all seen the power of Perfect Day in the Bahamas, wait until we see Perfect Day Mexico come to life, and Royal Beach clubs come to life. And then we have River. And of course, we ramp up from two ships in '27 to four ships in 2028.

所以我們對此進行了深思熟慮。所以我認為，正如你所說，當你展望 2028 年時，你會看到，基本上，我們都看到了巴哈馬“完美一天”的威力，等到“完美一天”墨西哥度假村開業，皇家海灘俱樂部開業，我們就會知道這一點。然後我們有了 River。當然，我們的船隊數量將從 1927 年的兩艘增加到 2028 年的四艘。

And of course, it's probably too early to talk about exactly what that all means, but it is -- it should result in a significant step-up in earnings power as we think about that. And none of that, of course, takes into account when we think about capital allocation, not mentioned obviously not significantly.

當然，現在談論這一切究竟意味著什麼可能還為時過早，但從我們的角度來看，它應該會導致獲利能力的顯著提升。當然，當我們考慮資本配置時，這些都沒有被考慮進去，顯然沒有被提及。

I mean we, first, of course, are investing in growing our business but we take very seriously shareholder returns through a competitive dividend and buy back shares. And any share buyback consideration is not something that is contemplated, which will just be another I think, significant tailwind to earnings per share growth.

我的意思是，首先，我們當然會投資於業務成長，但我們非常重視透過有競爭力的股息和回購股票來為股東帶來回報。我們不會考慮任何股票回購的考慮，我認為這對每股盈餘的成長將是另一個重要的推動力。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安（Conor Cunningham），Melius Research。

Just on loyalty, you've been talking about a lot more. And obviously, one of your competitors are speaking about it a little bit as well. When I look -- when we're talking about closing the gap to land-based competitors and whatnot, a big gap, I think, is on the co-branded credit card program and then maybe the loyalty program optimization in general.

就忠誠度而言，您已經談論了很多。顯然，您的一個競爭對手也在談論這一點。當我們談論縮小與實體競爭對手的差距時，我認為，一個很大的差距在於聯名信用卡計劃，然後可能是整體忠誠度計劃優化。

So if you could just talk about the opportunity set there and how you envision that? I don't think your credit card is tied to your loyalty program currently. So just -- if you could just talk about that a little bit, I think that could be helpful.

那麼，您能否談談那裡存在的機會以及您對此有何設想？我認為您的信用卡目前與您的忠誠度計劃無關。所以——如果你能稍微談論一下這個問題，我認為可能會有所幫助。

Sure. Sure. Well, we do have a co-branded credit card. It is tied today to our loyalty program, but not in the way that fits our ambition. And so we're very closely working with our co-branded credit card provider.

當然。當然。嗯，我們確實有一張聯名信用卡。如今，它與我們的忠誠度計劃緊密相連，但方式並不符合我們的目標。因此，我們與聯合品牌信用卡提供者保持著密切的合作。

And I think you're going to see something very meaningful coming out of that very, very soon. At the end of the day, we have this great opportunity that we sit on a lot of quality data. We have a lot of interactions with our guests. Our guests are telling us what are important unto them.

我認為你很快就會看到一些非常有意義的事情發生。最終，我們擁有了這個絕佳的機會，可以獲得大量優質數據。我們與客人有很多互動。我們的客人告訴我們什麼對他們來說是重要的。

We don't have a business consumer here, right? So we don't have the frequency of a business consumer in the world of you're earning your burn, you earn on the business side, you burn on the consumer side. And our guests are very focused on recognition and also being incentivized for the spend and the loyalty that provide.

我們這裡沒有商業消費者，對嗎？因此，我們沒有商業消費者在賺錢和燒錢之間的頻率，你在商業方面賺錢，在消費者方面燒錢。我們的客人非常注重認可，也注重消費和忠誠度的激勵。

And so we are -- I mean if you've spent time in our app, and if you spend time seeing how we're interacting with our guests, especially in the loyalty program side, we are very tuned into and have a lot of plans on what are things in which our guests and our brands feel is a value to them that would result in them behaving even more loyal to us.

所以我們是這樣的——我的意思是，如果你花時間在我們的應用程式上，如果你花時間觀察我們如何與我們的客人互動，特別是在忠誠度計劃方面，我們就會非常關注並製定了很多計劃，了解我們的客人和我們的品牌認為哪些事情對他們有價值，從而導致他們對我們更加忠誠。

And we've already seen a shift of a couple of months just in the -- in their behavior with us, which is why 40% of our guests in the third quarter now are loyalty members.

僅僅幾個月的時間，我們就已看到顧客的行為發生了變化，這就是為什麼第三季 40% 的顧客都是忠誠會員。

So loyalty, I think, is very important. I think people want to be recognized -- they want to -- and not just recognized for their spend today but recognized for all that they have done in the past. And then we need to make sure we're creating an environment across our brands to make sure that in their lifetime of vacations that we have the right vacation experience that is relevant to them and that they're benefiting from continuing to stay inside of our ecosystem.

所以我認為忠誠非常重要。我認為人們希望得到認可——他們希望——而且不僅是因為他們今天的付出而得到認可，還因為他們過去所做的一切而得到認可。然後，我們需要確保我們在我們的品牌中創建一個環境，以確保在他們的假期期間，我們擁有與他們相關的正確的假期體驗，並且他們能夠從繼續留在我們的生態系統中受益。

At the end of the day, I look at loyalty with our employees and everyone else is it's a two-way street. And our guests should feel that they always want to stay inside of our ecosystem. And if somebody goes outside of our ecosystem to another cruise competitor or to somebody else on land, then we should look at that as a fail.

歸根結底，我認為員工和其他人的忠誠是雙向的。我們的客人應該感到他們總是想留在我們的生態系統中。如果有人離開我們的生態系統，轉而選擇其他郵輪競爭對手或陸地上的其他公司，那麼我們應該將其視為失敗。

And I think our teams have done such an exceptional job at engaging and putting things in front of our guests that may value and incentivizing them, which is now resulting in even more and more repetitions with our guests.

我認為我們的團隊在吸引客人方面做得非常出色，他們能夠將有價值的東西擺在客人面前，並激勵他們，這使得我們與客人的重複次數越來越多。

Okay. Appreciate it. And then maybe I could ask just for a clarification on the drag from the timing of the Star of the Seas. So is there anything embedded in the fourth quarter from Celebrity Xcel Star? Does anything linear from Star of the Seas there from a load factor perspective?

好的。非常感謝。然後也許我可以要求澄清一下「海洋之星號」的時間安排所造成的阻力。那麼 Celebrity Xcel Star 第四季是否包含任何內容？從載客率的角度來看，「海洋之星號」有什麼線性特徵嗎？

The only reason why I ask is that you strip out a lot of the noise, I think that's kind of happening. Like core pricing is actually exiting very, very strong. So I'm just trying to understand where core is for some of these timing issues that are kind of out there.

我問這個問題的唯一原因是，你要消除很多噪音，我認為這是正在發生的事情。就像核心定價實際上非常非常強勁一樣。所以我只是想了解一些存在的計時問題的核心在哪裡。

Yeah, you're right, Conor. So most of the impact of Star is really in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we have two things that I pointed out. One is Celebrity Xcel starts in mid-November. So that's obviously just mid-quarter. So you have that and you have to get it ready.

是的，你說得對，康納。因此，Star 的大部分影響實際上是在第三季。在第四季度，我指出了兩件事。一個是 Celebrity Xcel 將於 11 月中旬開始。所以這顯然只是季度中期。所以你有這個並且你必須做好準備。

And so -- and obviously, rents are up. So similar to what happened with start in the third quarter. But also recall that last year, we had a pretty heavy dry dock year. And so we usually take our dry docks in the lower-yielding periods.

因此——顯然，租金上漲了。與第三季開始時發生的情況非常相似。但還記得，去年是我們在幹船塢工作相當繁忙的一年。因此，我們通常在產量較低的時期會停用乾船塢。

And so last year in the fourth quarter, we had more dry docks than this year. So that's actually a drag on yield as well. And so together, we quantified that as roughly 90 basis points between timing of new ships as well as dry dock base.

因此，去年第四季度，我們的乾船塢數量比今年多。所以這其實也會對收益率造成拖累。因此，我們綜合起來，將其量化為新船與乾船塢基地之間的時間差約為 90 個基點。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利。

Just looking at the full year guide, I mean, Q2, great results. Your commentary is very positive. Why are you at the top end of the yield range? I know your change in thinking there that the top end of the yield range came down a little for the year.

僅看全年指南，我的意思是，第二季的業績非常好。您的評論非常積極。為什麼您的收益率處於最高水平？我知道你的想法發生了變化，今年的收益率上限略有下降。

Yeah. I would just say, Robin, when we gave guidance last, we expanded the range. There's a lot of noise in the system geopolitically that resulted in us just widening that range to give kind of investors a sense of what that could be.

是的。我只想說，羅賓，當我們上次給出指導時，我們擴大了範圍。系統中存在著許多地緣政治噪音，導致我們擴大了範圍，以便讓投資者了解情況。

Obviously, there were others in travel easier that pulled their guidance. We expanded our range just to give kind of where potential outcomes could be. So really, what you see in our range is a reflection of our historical practices. At this point in the year, we're typically plus or minus points there. And that's what we provided 70 points, 70 basis points.

顯然，還有其他人在旅行中更容易獲得他們的指導。我們擴大了範圍只是為了給出可能的結果。所以實際上，您在我們的產品系列中看到的是我們歷史實踐的反映。在每年的這個時候，我們的分數通常都會有增減。這就是我們提供的 70 個點，70 個基點。

So if we think about kind of that -- obviously, in April, it's a very active sort of geopolitical headlines all going on. I guess I'm just trying to think how we should interpret that you're -- how you're feeling at the sort of both optimistic and versus a quarter ago? Because it seems like some of the hotel companies have called out things improving in July relative to where they were in that sort of April, May period. So just trying to think how we should view your commentary -- your yield in the change that happened.

所以如果我們考慮一下——顯然，四月的地緣政治新聞非常活躍。我想我只是想思考我們應該如何解讀你——與一個季度前相比，你現在的樂觀情緒如何？因為看起來有些飯店公司已經表示，7 月的情況相對於 4 月和 5 月的情況有所改善。所以我只是試著思考我們應該如何看待你的評論——你在發生的變化中的收益。

I think that one of the differences between in cruise and hotel and even airlines is just what percent booked we are within a period. So I don't think it's -- in terms of the opportunity, it's probably not necessarily the same on hotel and airlines because of how sold we are in the quarter and how sold we are for the end of the year.

我認為遊輪和酒店甚至航空公司之間的區別之一就在於我們在一定時期內的預訂百分比。因此，我認為就機會而言，酒店和航空公司的情況可能不一定相同，因為我們在本季的銷售情況與年底的銷售情況不同。

But as I said with that range, that range is a reflection of a 50-50 on our forecast and there could be, if you want to take the optimistic side, if we continue to see strengthening and close-in demand, that would be likely the optimistic side of why it could be towards the top end or better.

但正如我所說的那樣，這個範圍反映了我們預測的 50-50，如果你想採取樂觀的一面，如果我們繼續看到加強和接近的需求，這可能是樂觀的一面，為什麼它可能會走向高端或更好。

Yeah. I think I don't recall exactly, but I think some of the hotel companies also may have reduced their guidance in the first quarter. We kind of -- regardless, we kept it the same. We actually increased it, if you recall. And we really widened this to account for the geopolitical outcomes, the noise that was there and the outcomes it could have. And really now, we're just going back to normal, right? This is typically what we do through the year.

是的。我想我不記得具體情況了，但我認為一些酒店公司可能也在第一季下調了業績預期。我們有點——不管怎樣，我們都保持原樣。如果你還記得的話，我們實際上增加了它。我們確實擴大了這個範圍，以考慮地緣政治結果、存在的噪音以及可能產生的後果。現在我們真的要恢復正常了，對吧？這通常是我們全年所做的事情。

And just one quick follow up. Would you say that your onboard spend, because I know some of the way it's reported can be impacted by sort of how you allocate accounting things. Just broadly speaking, is growth in onboard spend still higher in growth in ticket price? Or how should we think you've bought that relationship?

還有一個快速的後續行動。您是否會說您的船上支出，因為我知道它的報告方式可能會受到您如何分配會計事項的影響。整體來說，機上消費的成長是否仍然高於機票價格的成長？或者我們應該如何認為你已經購買了這種關係？

I would say that we're seeing very similar trends on ticket as well on onboard. Obviously, both of them are competing against very, very significant comps. But what we're seeing in terms of where the consumer is spending while they're on the ship looks very similar, except that it's stronger.

我想說，我們在機票和機上都看到了非常相似的趨勢。顯然，他們兩家公司都在與非常強大的競爭對手競爭。但就消費者在船上的消費而言，我們看到的情況非常相似，只是消費額更高。

We're also benefiting that every day, we get more and more pre-crew sales activities. And we're still in the very early innings of being effective and curating that and getting our guests to book -- to plan their vacation experiences earlier and earlier in that. As I mentioned in my comments, you then typically see a significant increase in overall spend because they basically have paid that bill and they moved on to new activities and new memories they want to create on the ship.

我們也受益匪淺，每天都有越來越多的預售活動。我們仍處於有效策劃和讓客人提前預訂的早期階段——儘早規劃他們的假期體驗。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，你通常會看到總體支出大幅增加，因為他們基本上已經支付了賬單，並且他們開始進行他們想要在船上創造的新活動和新回憶。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭特‧蒙圖爾 (Brandt Montour)。

So the first question is on the Royal Beach Club. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about the operational expectations for that destination out of the gate. You guys gave prices out to the market a little bit ago. I'm wondering maybe if the feedback from the travel agent community as well as the pre-bookings you're seeing, if that sort of points to full utilization potential out of gate, I know prices are dynamic, or if that's even the goal. How should we think about the ramp-up for the destination?

第一個問題是關於皇家海灘俱樂部的。也許您可以稍微談談對該目的地的營運預期。你們剛才向市場公佈了價格。我想知道，也許從旅行社社區的反饋以及您所看到的預訂情況來看，這是否表明了充分利用的潛力，我知道價格是動態的，或者這是否是目標。我們該如何考慮提升目標的實現率？

Thank you, Brandt. I'm so happy you asked that question.

謝謝你，布蘭特。我很高興你問了這個問題。

We opened for sale in a few weeks ago. Sales are very strong. Interest is very high. Our first sailing will be in December '21, which will be great timing for the holiday period. Construction is all on target. It's looking great, and we send drones over and share that with the team on a regular basis. It was really looking impressive, especially the world's largest swim-up bar.

我們幾週前就開始銷售了。銷售情況非常強勁。興趣非常高。我們的首次航行將於 21 年 12 月進行，這對假期來說是一個絕佳的時間。施工一切順利。它看起來很棒，我們派遣無人機過來並定期與團隊分享。它確實看起來令人印象深刻，尤其是世界上最大的池畔酒吧。

So it's going to be a winning product, a great destination, and we're very excited about what we're seeing in terms of activity. Prices start from around $139. It is dynamic because we've got a lot of capacity coming into Nassau and some days will be different from others in terms of the overall Royal Caribbean capacity in the port.

因此，它將是一款成功的產品，一個絕佳的目的地，我們對目前看到的活動感到非常興奮。價格從 139 美元左右起。它是動態的，因為我們有大量的運力進入拿騷，而且就皇家加勒比遊輪在港口的整體運力而言，有些日子會與其他日子有所不同。

So we've got dynamic pricing. We've got different packages available, and we've been extremely pleased with the sales to date.

所以我們有動態定價。我們提供不同的套餐，我們對迄今為止的銷售情況感到非常滿意。

I do have to share one interesting story, which is in the first hour when we opened for sale, we sold our ultimate family cabana for one day at $10,000, which was quite remarkable. And subsequently, we've sold a lot of days in the ultimate family cabana at $10,000.

我確實要分享一個有趣的故事，那就是在我們開始銷售的第一個小時，我們以 10,000 美元的價格售出了一天的終極家庭小屋，這是非常了不起的。隨後，我們以 10,000 美元的價格出售了許多終極家庭小屋的住宿。

So we really do think we've got the product right and we think it's going to deliver very high levels of guest satisfaction. So we're excited for the Beach Club in Paradise Island, and we're equally excited for the Beach Club in Mexico, Lelepa, and of course, the really big thing, which is, of course, Perfect Day Mexico in full year '28.

所以我們確實認為我們的產品是正確的，並且我們認為它將帶來非常高水準的客戶滿意度。因此，我們對天堂島的海灘俱樂部感到興奮，我們同樣對墨西哥的海灘俱樂部 Lelepa 感到興奮，當然，還有真正重要的事情，那就是 28 年全年的 Perfect Day Mexico。

And Brandt, I just want to add, in terms of on the ramp-up side, we have a very thoughtful formula for this, where it's not about a question of demand. It's a question of operational excellence.

布蘭特，我只想補充一點，就產能提升方面而言，我們對此有一個非常周到的方案，這與需求無關。這是一個卓越營運的問題。

And so it will be -- in terms of the actual number of people we take will be meaningfully less as we start and then build up in the into the first quarter and then into the second quarter. We want to make sure the experience is flawless in what we're doing.

所以，就實際接待人數而言，我們剛開始時會明顯減少，然後進入第一季和第二季後就會逐漸增加。我們希望確保我們所做的事情能帶來完美的體驗。

So it's -- while we can probably make more money the trust that we established with our customers is a high priority. And so it will be a slow ramp up like today that typically are in any new experience or destination or ships that we be online.

因此，雖然我們可能賺更多的錢，但我們與客戶建立的信任是我們最優先考慮的事情。因此，它將像今天一樣緩慢地發展，這通常適用於我們在線上提供的任何新體驗、目的地或船隻。

That's super helpful, both. A second question, Jason, I feel like you covered the close-in demand strength from a number of different angles this morning.

兩者都非常有幫助。第二個問題，傑森，我覺得你今天早上從多個不同角度討論了近距離需求強度。

I'm struggling between two different narratives on that. One, is that maybe at the expense of longer-term bookings and potentially compressing booked lead times and would that be sort of a function of either mix, younger consumer or residual effects from the tariffs and the macro impacts of the last few months? Or is it just, again, more incremental demand that you're seeing from that consumer and at the same time, you're seeing '26 bookings sort of plow along as planned?

對此，我正糾結於兩種不同的敘述。首先，這是否可能會以犧牲長期預訂為代價，並可能壓縮預訂交付週期，這是否是混合因素、年輕消費者或關稅的殘留效應以及過去幾個月的宏觀影響的結果？或者，您看到的只是消費者的更多增量需求，同時，您看到 26 個預訂量按計劃順利進行？

I don't know if those two things are -- if there's a third. But if you could help me sort of understand what you guys are trying to get at with that commentary.

我不知道這兩件事是否還有第三件事。但如果你能幫助我理解你們想要透過該評論表達什麼意思。

Yes. Well, Brandt, as I've said this in the past, we never get our yield management perfect. Even with all the technology, we always -- there's always money to leave on the table. And I think one of the things you just -- I think the reality of what we have left to sell is little.

是的。好吧，布蘭特，正如我過去所說的那樣，我們的收益管理從來都不是完美的。即使擁有所有這些技術，我們仍然總是會損失一些錢。我認為您要考慮的一件事是——我認為我們剩下的可供銷售的東西已經很少了。

And I think because we are -- half of our guests or millennials are younger, there is a reality that they do book closer in. We have more of the shorter product going to great places like Perfect Day and soon, Royal Beach Club, which will have them lean a little bit more closer in.

我認為，因為我們有一半的客人或千禧世代比較年輕，所以他們確實會在更近的時間預訂。我們有更多的短片產品進入 Perfect Day 等好地方，很快就會進入 Royal Beach Club，這將使他們更靠近一些。

But in my remarks, just a commentary around 2026, right? We're in line with same time last year at higher rates. I think we should give you an indication that demand is actually quite healthy and is keeping pace and guests really to pay more is certainly there.

但在我的評論中，只是對 2026 年左右的評論，對嗎？我們的利率與去年同期持平，但利率較高。我認為我們應該向您表明，需求實際上相當健康並且保持同步，客人確實願意支付更多費用。

So I would -- I think it's really two different things. I think it is a little bit of a younger consumer. And the second piece of it is that confidence in making sure that people are getting the vacation experiences that they want, that people are willing to plan thoughtfully out into the future.

所以我會——我認為這實際上是兩件不同的事情。我認為這是一個稍微年輕的消費者群。第二點就是確保人們獲得他們想要的度假體驗，確保人們願意為未來進行週詳的規劃。

I think also -- this is Michael again. I think also another consideration is the increase in the short capacity that we've seen, particularly that goes to -- Perfect Day.

我還認為——這又是麥可。我認為另一個考慮因素是我們看到短運力的增加，特別是「完美日」的增加。

And for the Royal brand, which we have a lot of short cruise capacity. We've got Utopia now sailing out of Port Canaveral and are in the three and four-day market. And now, Wonder of the Seas, so the second Oasis class ship will be starting soon out of Miami doing the same thing. That takes -- those two ships alone in terms of just volume is around 30,000 guests a week just on those two ships, so they're going to Perfect Day.

對於皇家品牌，我們擁有許多短途巡航能力。目前，烏托邦號已從卡納維爾港啟航，目前正進入為期三天和四天的市場。現在，第二艘綠洲級郵輪「海洋奇蹟號」即將從邁阿密出發，做同樣的事情。就容量而言，僅這兩艘船每週就需要接待大約 30,000 名遊客，所以他們會前往「完美一天」號。

So I think that also is beginning to skew how people perceive their booking window because it's kind of a -- it's a great weekend. We call it the big weekend and people just decide later on to jump on board and have a great time, and we see a lot of repeat on those products as well. It's a great weekend.

所以我認為這也開始扭曲人們對預訂窗口的看法，因為這是一個很棒的周末。我們稱之為大周末，人們後來就決定加入並度過愉快的時光，我們也看到這些產品有很多重複。這是一個美好的周末。

When we open up the beach club, which complements Perfect Day, that big weekend is getting even bigger. So we think that, that's part of the kind of the evolution of the business.

當我們開設海灘俱樂部時，與「完美日子」相輔相成，這個美好的周末將變得更加重要。所以我們認為，這是業務發展的一部分。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

本·柴肯，瑞穗。

One on Nassau quickly. You've previously given us some preliminary kind of targets or expectations for volume. But how do you think about the attach rate using Royal Nassau visitors in the denominator, if you will? Meaning is this adoption, 50% adoption. And I ask this in the context of [Coco] seeing 3.5 million guests or more presuming a lot of them going to Nassau. So understanding there's a ramp kind of as you get going, does any way to frame the attach rate based on the volume numbers you've given us the last few quarters?

很快就到達拿騷。您之前曾為我們提供過一些初步的數量目標或預期。但是，如果您願意的話，您如何看待以皇家拿騷遊客為分母的附加率呢？意思是這個採用率，50%的採用率。我問這個問題是因為 [Coco] 接待了 350 萬甚至更多的遊客，我猜想其中很多人都會去拿騷。因此，您了解到，隨著您開始行動，會出現一種上升趨勢，有沒有什麼方法可以根據您在過去幾季提供給我們的銷售數字來確定附加率？

Yeah. I think our current thinking is when you look at the volume we're going to bring in '26 into Nassau, which is, give or take, around 3 million guests and the overall capacity of the beach club will be around, give or take, $1 million then you're looking at 33% of our guests, we think, will be more than happy.

是的。我認為我們目前的想法是，當你看到我們在 26 年將為拿騷帶來的數量，也就是大約 300 萬名客人，而海灘俱樂部的總容量將在大約 100 萬美元左右時，我們認為 33% 的客人會非常高興。

And I mean I think what we may experience is more demand than supply with the beach club in Nassau. So we're going to have to -- and obviously, that's where dynamic pricing is going to play a very important role in that product. But we think we've got the numbers perfectly right.

我的意思是，我認為我們可能會遇到拿騷海灘俱樂部供不應求的情況。所以我們必須這樣做——顯然，動態定價將在該產品中發揮非常重要的作用。但我們認為我們得到的數字是完全正確的。

Understood. Very helpful.

明白了。非常有幫助。

And then Jason, you made -- you kind of made a pretty interesting comment earlier in the call. You mentioned that Costa Maya is going to be the same size as Magic Kingdom in Orlando, if I caught that right.

然後傑森，你在通話早些時候發表了一個非常有趣的評論。如果我沒理解錯的話，您提到科斯塔瑪雅的面積將與奧蘭多的魔幻王國一樣大。

I presume you meant that in terms of acreage. I mean, to the extent you have anything to share on amenities, you can kind of like flow to us understanding this is still several years away. I don't know if that was like a little bit of a metaphor or whatnot.

我猜你指的是土地面積。我的意思是，如果您有任何關於便利設施方面的事情要分享，您可以告訴我們，這還需要幾年的時間。我不知道這是否有點像一個比喻或諸如此類。

Well, I think it is in terms of like the actual footprint on Perfect Day in Mexico and I think it's to have people understand the -- ultimately the scale of what's going to be there. Of course, we're going to deliver that with much, much fewer guests the guests that visit the Magic Kingdom, right? Because it's -- we're super focused on that everybody has this perfect day.

嗯，我認為這就像墨西哥完美日的實際足跡一樣，我認為這是為了讓人們了解——最終將在那裡發生的事情的規模。當然，我們將會以比參觀魔法王國的遊客少得多的人數來實現這一目標，對嗎？因為——我們非常注重讓每個人都有完美的一天。

And I would very much point everybody to just go on to YouTube and watch the videos that we put out from our event in last May on what a Perfect Day Mexico is going to look like, and it delivers a perfect day I think pretty much everybody, whether you're looking to go down the world's largest lazy river, whether you're looking for kind of that Vegas beach party, just some fun in the sun, the relaxation, family and incredible pools and so forth. There's so much that's going to be done.

我強烈建議大家去 YouTube 上觀看我們去年 5 月發布的活動視頻，了解墨西哥完美日是什麼樣子，我想它能為幾乎每個人帶來完美的一天，無論你是想去世界上最大的漂流河，還是想參加那種拉斯維加斯海灘派對，只是想在陽光下享受樂趣、放鬆身心、與家人共度美好時光、在令人驚嘆的泳池中暢遊等等。有很多事情要做。

And it's curated like we do very well in our ships into different neighborhoods, so people can kind of experience with who they would like to experience that with.

而且，我們的船隻經過精心策劃，前往不同的社區，因此人們可以與他們想一起體驗的人一起體驗。

And that's what we do, right? I mean, Michael and his team are heavily focused on designing that Perfect Day. We clearly delivered on the Bahamas, and we're going to do that in Mexico for even more people.

這就是我們所做的，對吧？我的意思是，邁克爾和他的團隊非常專注於設計完美的一天。我們在巴哈馬群島已經取得了顯著成效，我們也將在墨西哥為更多的人提供相同的服務。

Lastly, I'd just say, I mean, it also opens up this incredible catchment area or deeper into markets like Texas and the West Coast and even in the Midwest that we'll be able to less than where they spend their share of wallet on potential air travel and other travel to shift to make it more affordable for them and potentially more wallet share for us.

最後，我想說的是，它還打開了這個令人難以置信的集水區或更深入的市場，如德克薩斯州和西海岸，甚至在中西部，我們將能夠減少他們在潛在航空旅行和其他旅行上花費的錢包份額，從而使他們更能負擔得起，並可能為我們帶來更多的錢包份額。

And importantly, it has the world's largest umbrella.

更重要的是，它擁有世界上最大的雨傘。

That's definitely important. Did 3Q have Costa Maya cost in the NCC number?

這絕對很重要。3Q 的 NCC 號碼中是否有 Costa Maya 的費用？

Yes, it does. And so we just closed on it and obviously, we'll operate it for quite some time until we start development. So yes, and that's part of the headwind. We didn't really call it out in the release or in our prepared remarks, but there is extra cost for that. And obviously, for Paradise as well as we ramp up the beach club to open up in December. There are some costs there with obviously no APCDs.

是的。所以我們剛剛結束了這個項目，顯然，我們會運營它相當長一段時間，直到我們開始開發。是的，這是不利因素的一部分。我們並沒有在新聞稿或準備好的發言中真正提到這一點，但這樣做會產生額外的成本。顯然，對於天堂島，我們也計劃在 12 月開放海灘俱樂部。那裡顯然存在一些沒有 APCD 的成本。

Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research Company.

文斯·西皮爾（Vince Ciepiel），克里夫蘭研究公司。

I wanted to unpack River a little bit more. I know it's still a ways away, but I think at some point in the second half of this year, a little bit more clarity on what the itineraries and offering might look like. And as you're 90 days further into exploring what that could look like for you, any big picture thoughts on just conviction level of getting to 35, 40 ships river capacity to do so and being able to curate a great experience, shoreside for guests when considering [birding] rights, et cetera?

我想進一步了解 River。我知道這還有很長的路要走，但我認為在今年下半年的某個時候，行程和產品安排會更加清晰一些。在您進一步探索 90 天后，這對您來說意味著什麼時，對於實現 35 至 40 艘船隻的河流容量，以及在考慮 [觀鳥] 權利等時能夠為客人提供絕佳的岸上體驗，您有什麼宏觀想法嗎？

Well, thanks for the question, Vince. I wish Laura was here because she can probably talk a little bit about it more in detail. And to also tell you that I bother her every single day on how do we get as many ships up as soon as possible. And that's not just a reflection on us now getting comfortable with it operationally, having a very strong idea of all the different destinations, not just in Europe but around the world where we can go out and deliver this incredible river experience.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，文斯。我希望勞拉在這裡，因為她可能可以更詳細地談論這件事。也要告訴你，我每天都會打擾她，詢問我們如何能盡快讓盡可能多的船升空。這不僅反映了我們現在對它的運作感到滿意，而且對所有不同的目的地都有了非常清晰的認識，不僅在歐洲，而且在世界各地，我們都可以去那裡提供這種令人難以置信的河流體驗。

We're pretty well baked with the ship design, which we are very confident will be a meaningful differentiator to what is currently available out there. And there's a lot of like space, this is we think a very underpenetrated marketplace. And so there's room for everybody to grow and grow successfully, but we're going to elevate this.

我們對船舶設計已經非常滿意，我們非常有信心它將成為與目前市場上其他船舶有顯著差異的因素。我們認為，這是一個滲透率很低的市場，還有很多類似的空間。因此，每個人都有成長和成功成長的空間，但我們會提升這一點。

So I would say that we feel very good about the destination experience that celebrity is going to offer here, not just on the ship itself but also on land. And I think it's just I'm probably more focused on how do we get it done faster. And -- but our teams are being very thoughtful about that.

所以我想說，我們對名人將在這裡提供的目的地體驗感到非常滿意，不僅在船上，而且在陸地上。我認為我可能更關注如何更快地完成它。而且——但我們的團隊對此非常認真。

It's going to be, I mean, a great vacation experience for our guests. And I think the last point I just want to make about the what brings such confidence is when we announced this and we kind of get our customers coming forward with wanting to be on it as soon as possible and are starting to kind of build up lifts of customers who want to go on. It's going to -- it would take us a long time to satisfy that level of demand.

我的意思是，這對我們的客人來說將是一次很棒的度假體驗。我認為最後一點是，當我們宣布這一消息時，我們之所以能帶來如此大的信心，是因為我們讓客戶紛紛表示希望盡快加入，並開始為想要繼續使用的客戶積累客戶數量。我們需要很長時間才能滿足這種程度的需求。

And so we want to make sure that we can deliver these experiences to our guests, and we have to challenge ourselves not just because we can make some more money on it, but we didn't meet that demand for our guests who are looking to have that river experience from our celebrity brand.

因此，我們希望確保能夠為客人提供這些體驗，我們必須挑戰自己，不僅僅是因為我們可以從中賺取更多錢，而且我們沒有滿足那些希望從我們的名人品牌獲得河流體驗的客人的需求。

Great. One other just kind of housekeeping question. Thinking about CapEx, $5 billion for the year. I think if it's not new build, but some Costa Maya in there as well. When you think about the perfect plan, -- is that $5 billion like a good annual number to use for '26 and '27 and a similar mix of non-new build and new build as we're thinking about the path ahead.

偉大的。還有一個只是普通問題。考慮到資本支出，今年為 50 億美元。我認為如果它不是新建的，那麼其中也有一些科斯塔瑪雅。當你考慮完美的計劃時，50 億美元是否是 26 年和 27 年使用的一個不錯的年度數字，以及我們在考慮未來道路時非新建和新建的類似組合。

Yes. So we're not providing guidance, obviously, for the next couple of years. But on the shipbuilding side, it really depends on the ship deliveries. And so this year, we have two fairly large ships, right, both Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel. You can go and see kind of what '26 and '27 are there are only one ship right there.

是的。因此，顯然我們不會為未來幾年提供指導。但在造船方面，這確實取決於船舶交付。今年，我們有兩艘相當大的遊輪，分別是「海洋之星號」和「名人 Xcel」號。你可以去看看 26 號和 27 號，那裡只有一艘船。

And on the non-ship CapEx, we -- there are a couple of elements there, and obviously, we'll provide more guidance as we get closer to '26. But we have kind of our core investments in maintenance and other initiatives. There are typically very stable in a way and then you have the destination. So that ramps up depending on the year. This year, obviously, Paradise, then we'll have Cozumel and Costa Maya, and obviously, '27 will be heavily on Costa Maya. We have modernization programs.

在非船舶資本支出方面，我們有幾個要素，顯然，隨著 26 年的臨近，我們將提供更多指導。但我們的核心投資在於維護和其他計劃。通常在某種程度上它們非常穩定，然後你就得到了目的地。因此，該數字會根據年份而增加。今年，顯然是天堂，然後我們將有科蘇梅爾和科斯塔瑪雅，顯然，27 年將主要關注科斯塔瑪雅。我們有現代化計劃。

And so there are other elements to make sure that we are getting through to perfect that kind of our long-term targets. But I think the most important thing is the company now is very large. We're generating a lot of cash flow. So even after we have excess cash flow that obviously we'll be focused on getting -- making sure that the balance sheet is intact and then supplementing the old that growth with capital shareholder returns.

因此，還有其他因素可以確保我們能夠完美地實現我們的長期目標。但我認為最重要的是現在公司規模很大。我們正在產生大量現金流。因此，即使我們有了過剩的現金流，我們顯然也會專注於確保資產負債表完好無損，然後用資本股東回報來補充舊的成長。

And I will now turn the conference back over to Naftali Holtz, CFO, for closing remarks.

現在，我將會議交還給財務長納夫塔利‧霍爾茨 (Naftali Holtz)，請他致閉幕詞。

Thank you. We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Blake will be available for any follow-ups. We wish you all a great day.

謝謝。我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的關注。Blake 將隨時關注後續事宜。我們祝福大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。