皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Joanne, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Royal Caribbean Group Business Update and Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫喬安妮，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎您參加皇家加勒比集團業務更新和 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael McCarthy, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. McCarthy, the floor is yours.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Michael McCarthy。麥卡錫先生，發言權是你的。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2022 business update conference call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的 2022 年第二季度業務更新電話會議。我們的首席執行官 Jason Liberty 和我一起來到邁阿密。 Naftali Holtz，我們的首席財務官；以及皇家加勒比國際公司總裁兼首席執行官邁克爾·貝利。

Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our website and on our earnings release available at www.rclinvestor.com.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們將在這次電話會議期間做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。有關這些因素的描述，請參閱我們今天上午發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標按定義進行調整，所有非 GAAP 項目的對賬可以在我們的網站和我們的收益發布中找到，網址為 www.rclinvestor.com。

Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our second quarter results and an update on our latest actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions.

Jason 將通過提供戰略概述和業務更新來開始電話會議。 Naftali 將回顧我們的第二季度業績，並更新我們的最新行動和當前預訂環境。然後，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

有了這個，我很高興將電話轉給傑森。

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Over the past several months, our teams have reached several very important milestones in our pursuit to quickly return our business back to 2019 financial metrics and beyond.

謝謝你，邁克爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。在過去的幾個月裡，我們的團隊已經達到了幾個非常重要的里程碑，以實現我們的業務快速恢復到 2019 年及以後的財務指標。

In June, we successfully completed the return of our entire fleet into operation. This was a Herculean task by our team, and I'm so thankful and proud of our shipboard and shoreside teams who have worked so incredibly hard under unthinkable and ever-changing circumstances to execute on such a successful return to delivering the best vacations in the world.

6 月，我們成功完成了整個機隊的恢復運營。這是我們團隊的一項艱鉅任務，我非常感謝並為我們的船上和岸上團隊感到自豪，他們在難以想像和不斷變化的環境中如此努力地工作，以實現如此成功的回報，以提供最好的假期世界。

Our complete operating platform is now up and running. That platform, which includes our leading brand, the most innovative fleet in the industry, our global sourcing and technology apparatus and the best people in the world. It is now positioned to deliver the best vacations in the world responsibly and accelerate our business back to superior financial performance.

我們完整的操作平台現已啟動並運行。該平台包括我們的領先品牌、業內最具創新性的車隊、我們的全球採購和技術設備以及世界上最優秀的人才。它現在的定位是負責任地提供世界上最好的假期，並加速我們的業務重回卓越的財務業績。

Another major milestone for the group this past quarter was that our business turned operating cash flow and EBITDA positive. During the second quarter, we achieved earlier than we had expected, positive EBITDA and operating cash flow. This achievement further strengthened our liquidity position and positions us well to continue methodically and proactively improving the balance sheet and refinancing near-term maturities as we seek to return to 2019 metrics and beyond swiftly.

上個季度該集團的另一個重要里程碑是我們的業務將經營現金流和 EBITDA 轉為正數。在第二季度，我們實現了比我們預期的更早的 EBITDA 和經營現金流。這一成就進一步加強了我們的流動性狀況，並使我們能夠繼續有條不紊地、積極地改善資產負債表並為近期到期的再融資，因為我們尋求迅速恢復到 2019 年及以後的指標。

This outperformance in Q2 versus our expectations was driven by continued strength in our onboard revenue and accelerating load factors, which hit nearly 90% in June and delivered 82% for the quarter. This combination led us to achieving higher total revenue per guest versus 2019 levels. Our North American itineraries are now sailing at over 100% load factors, and we are building on this momentum as we expect to reach load factors in the mid-90s in Q3 and then return to triple-digit load factors globally by year-end. This will set us up very well for 2023.

第二季度的表現優於我們的預期，是由於我們的船上收入持續強勁和載客率加速，6 月份達到近 90%，本季度交付率為 82%。與 2019 年的水平相比，這種組合使我們實現了更高的每位客人總收入。我們的北美航線現在以超過 100% 的載客率航行，我們正在利用這一勢頭，因為我們預計在第三季度達到 90 年代中期的載客率，然後在年底前在全球恢復三位數的載客率。這將使我們為 2023 年做好準備。

The combination of consumers' strong propensity to experience in travel, accelerating demographic trends, which are pulling in more bucket list and multigenerational travel, a very compelling value proposition and a strong preference for our brand is translating into strengthening demand.

消費者強烈的旅行體驗傾向、加速的人口趨勢（正在拉動更多願望清單和多代旅行）、非常引人注目的價值主張和對我們品牌的強烈偏好正在轉化為需求的增強。

Lastly, the other major milestone for the group and the industry is related to the CDC ending its program for cruise ships as we are now transitioning to the point where everyone will be able to vacation with us. As we've always said, the health and safety of our guests, crew and communities we visit are our top priority, and cruising has proven to be one of the safest environments anywhere.

最後，該集團和該行業的另一個重要里程碑與 CDC 結束其遊輪計劃有關，因為我們現在正在過渡到每個人都可以和我們一起度假的地步。正如我們一直所說，我們的客人、船員和社區的健康和安全是我們的首要任務，而巡航已被證明是任何地方最安全的環境之一。

After 2 years of successfully working with us, the CDC has transitioned from enforcing protocols and policies for the cruise industry to suggestions and recommendations to be in line with the travel and tourism sector. That speaks to the great work we've done together as an industry.

在與我們成功合作 2 年後，CDC 已從執行郵輪行業的協議和政策轉變為與旅行和旅遊業保持一致的建議和建議。這說明了我們作為一個行業共同完成的偉大工作。

While we plan to continue to operate our healthy return-to-service shipboard protocols, one immediate change that I'm happy to report is that starting August 8, pre-embarkation testing for vaccinated guests on voyages of 5 days or less will no longer be required. This will be subject to local destination requirements, and we will continue to test all unvaccinated guests. We also anticipate in the not-too-distant future that pre-embarkation testing for longer duration voyages will be reduced.

雖然我們計劃繼續執行我們健康的返回服務船上協議，但我很高興地報告的一個直接變化是，從 8 月 8 日開始，將不再對航行 5 天或更短時間的已接種疫苗的客人進行登船前測試需要。這將取決於當地目的地的要求，我們將繼續對所有未接種疫苗的客人進行測試。我們還預計，在不久的將來，更長航程的登船前測試將會減少。

Before going into the booking commentary, I wanted to share some of the behaviors that we are actually seeing from our guests. Now keep in mind that every day, we have well over 100,000 guests experiencing and spending on our ships. Every day, we take tens of thousands of bookings from our guests looking to travel to a wide range of destinations, anywhere from a quick weekend getaway to perfect day to a bucket list trip to the Galapagos Islands or Antarctica.

在進入預訂評論之前，我想分享一些我們實際從客人那裡看到的行為。現在請記住，每天有超過 100,000 名客人在我們的船上體驗和消費。每天，我們都會收到數以萬計的客人的預訂，這些客人希望前往各種目的地，從快速的周末度假到完美的一天，再到前往加拉帕戈斯群島或南極洲的遺願清單之旅。

Every day, we witness and engage in millions of interactions on our websites and through our call centers as guests learn about and book their dream vacations. We see a lot.

每天，當客人了解和預訂他們夢想中的假期時，我們都會在我們的網站和呼叫中心見證並參與數百萬次互動。我們看到很多。

Overall, we continue to see a financially healthy, highly engaged consumer with a strong hunger to dream and seek experiences, and they are willing to spend more than ever with us to create those memories.

總體而言，我們繼續看到財務健康、高度參與的消費者對夢想和尋求體驗有著強烈的渴望，他們比以往任何時候都願意花更多的錢與我們一起創造這些回憶。

Let me give you some more concrete data points. The 100,000-plus guests that we have on our ship every day, including the 125,000 guests that are currently on our ships today, have been spending at least 30% more on board our ships across all categories when compared to 2019. These spending trends have been consistent across our customer base even as we are approaching full load factors.

讓我給你一些更具體的數據點。與 2019 年相比，我們每天在船上的 100,000 多名客人，包括目前在我們船上的 125,000 名客人，在我們所有類別的船上的花費至少增加了 30%。這些消費趨勢已經即使我們接近滿負荷率，我們的客戶群也保持一致。

Approximately 60% of our guests book their onboard activities before they ever step foot on our ships. As we said in the past, every dollar guest spends before the voyage translates into about $0.70 more on the dollar when they sail with us and double the overall spending compared to other guests.

大約 60% 的客人在踏上我們的船隻之前就預訂了他們的船上活動。正如我們過去所說，每位客人在航程前花費的每一美元在他們與我們一起航行時轉化為大約 0.70 美元，並且與其他客人相比，總支出增加了一倍。

As we look into the second half of 2022, pre-cruise revenue APDs are up over 40% versus 2019 levels. The strong consumer demand in our commercial and technical capabilities are contributing to the strong performance.

展望 2022 年下半年，郵輪前收入 APD 與 2019 年的水平相比增長了 40% 以上。消費者對我們商業和技術能力的強烈需求促成了強勁的業績。

Our distribution channels are now fully up and running. Our websites are receiving close to double the visits compared to 2019, and we are generating record level of direct bookings. In addition, our trade partners are fully up and running and are generating bookings in excess of 2019 levels.

我們的分銷渠道現已全面啟動並運行。與 2019 年相比，我們網站的訪問量增加了近一倍，我們正在創造創紀錄的直接預訂量。此外，我們的貿易夥伴已全面啟動並運行，並產生超過 2019 年水平的預訂量。

We are also seeing in our consumer data that cruise interest is now basically back to 2019 levels as the continued easing of travel protocols and the attractive value proposition is making cruising more and more appealing. The attractive new-to-cruise segment is now returning faster with non-loyalty guests doubling in Q2 compared to Q1, and the mix is essentially on par with 2019 levels. Our attractive brands as well strategically adjusted deployment towards shorter itineraries are driving more new-to-cruise.

我們還在我們的消費者數據中看到，隨著旅行協議的持續放寬和有吸引力的價值主張使郵輪越來越有吸引力，郵輪的興趣現在基本上回到了 2019 年的水平。與第一季度相比，第二季度的非忠誠度客人翻了一番，這一具有吸引力的新郵輪市場現在正在以更快的速度回歸，而且這一比例與 2019 年的水平基本持平。我們有吸引力的品牌以及針對更短行程的戰略調整部署正在推動更多新郵輪。

We also continued to benefit from secular tailwinds anchored in the shift of consumer preferences from goods to experiences. And we are squarely in the experience business. Recreational services are now growing 4x the rate of goods and are expected to continue to outpace 2019 levels.

我們還繼續受益於消費者偏好從商品轉向體驗的長期順風。我們完全從事體驗業務。娛樂服務現在的增長率是商品增長率的 4 倍，預計將繼續超過 2019 年的水平。

Favorable demographic trends support our growth as well. More than 3 million adults retired during COVID, doubled than what was expected. Meanwhile, millennials are financially healthy, as they reach their peak earning years, forming households and looking for vacations with their families. These trends, combined with the emergence of more paid time off and more flexible work environments, allow guests to spend more vacation time on our cruise ships.

有利的人口趨勢也支持我們的增長。超過 300 萬成年人在 COVID 期間退休，是預期的兩倍。與此同時，千禧一代的財務狀況良好，因為他們達到了收入高峰，組建家庭並與家人一起尋找假期。這些趨勢，加上更多帶薪休假和更靈活的工作環境的出現，讓客人可以在我們的遊輪上度過更多的假期。

The value proposition for cruising remains incredibly attractive and the strength of our brands and platform allows us to continue and capture this quality demand as we ramp up the business this year and build for a successful 2023 and beyond. All this quality demand is translating into strong booking activity.

巡航的價值主張仍然極具吸引力，我們品牌和平台的實力使我們能夠在今年擴大業務並為 2023 年及以後的成功做準備時繼續並抓住這種質量需求。所有這些質量需求正在轉化為強勁的預訂活動。

During the second quarter, we saw a strong demand for close in sailings, which contributed to better-than-expected load factors. Bookings for 2022 sailings averaged about 30% above 2019 levels throughout the second quarter and more recently have been up to 35%. The second half of 2022 is booked below historical ranges, but at higher prices than 2019 with and without future cruise credits.

在第二季度，我們看到了對關閉航行的強勁需求，這導致了好於預期的載客率。整個第二季度，2022 年航行的預訂量平均比 2019 年水平高出約 30%，最近更是高達 35%。 2022 年下半年的預訂低於歷史範圍，但價格高於 2019 年，無論是否有未來的郵輪積分。

Cancellations are at pre-COVID levels. In addition, we are now seeing the booking window starting to extend back out, providing further confidence in forward-looking business as our guests thoughtfully planned for the future. As a result, all 4 quarters of 2023 are booked within historical ranges at record prices with bookings accelerating every week. Our customer deposits are at record levels and over 90% of bookings made in the second quarter were new, while steady FCC redemptions continued.

取消處於 COVID 之前的水平。此外，我們現在看到預訂窗口開始向後延伸，在我們的客人對未來進行深思熟慮的情況下，進一步增強了對前瞻性業務的信心。因此，2023 年的所有 4 個季度都以創紀錄的價格在歷史範圍內預訂，預訂量每週都在加速。我們的客戶存款處於創紀錄水平，第二季度超過 90% 的預訂是新的，而 FCC 的贖回仍在繼續。

Inflation continues to impact businesses across the globe, and we are no exception. As we discussed before, food and fuel are the main categories for us that are susceptible to inflation. We continue to navigate those cost pressures as we seek to enhance our margin profile while delivering the incredible vacation experiences that are expected by our guests.

通貨膨脹繼續影響著全球的企業，我們也不例外。正如我們之前所討論的，食品和燃料是我們容易受到通貨膨脹影響的主要類別。我們將繼續應對這些成本壓力，因為我們尋求提高我們的利潤狀況，同時提供我們客人所期望的令人難以置信的假期體驗。

There are some initial positive signs with respect to inflation trends in our food basket. Our more recent month-over-month F&B inflation indicator has increased at the slowest pace thus far in 2022. This, combined with direct conversations with our key suppliers, indicate inflation levels are peaking and that we would start seeing some relief in the coming months.

我們食品籃子的通脹趨勢出現了一些初步的積極跡象。我們最近的月度環比通脹指標在 2022 年以最慢的速度增長。再加上與我們主要供應商的直接對話，表明通脹水平正在見頂，未來幾個月我們將開始看到一些緩解.

On the fuel side, we continue to optimize consumption and have partially hedged the rate below market prices, which is mitigating the impact on our fuel costs.

在燃料方面，我們繼續優化消費並部分對沖低於市場價格的費率，這正在減輕對我們燃料成本的影響。

As we mentioned in the last few quarters, we have taken and continue to take numerous actions to reshape the cost structure of the business to support growing margins as we execute on our recovery. We are starting to see benefits of these efforts as we ramp up the fleet to full operations. We also expect the growth in margins to accelerate in the second half and into 2023.

正如我們在過去幾個季度中提到的那樣，我們已經並繼續採取許多行動來重塑業務的成本結構，以支持我們在執行複蘇過程中不斷增長的利潤率。隨著我們將機隊擴大到全面運營，我們開始看到這些努力的好處。我們還預計利潤率的增長將在下半年和 2023 年加速。

Earlier this month, we acquired the ultra-luxury cruise ship Endeavor. Originally delivered in 2021, the ship joined Silversea Cruises expedition fleet. The ship is scheduled to begin service this November in Antarctica with bookings already commencing. This opportunistic acquisition allows us to add capacity and capture growth opportunities in a very attractive expedition segment.

本月早些時候，我們收購了超豪華遊輪奮進號。該船最初於 2021 年交付，加入了 Silversea Cruises 的遠征船隊。該船計劃於今年 11 月在南極洲開始服務，預訂已經開始。這種機會主義的收購使我們能夠在一個非常有吸引力的探險領域增加容量並抓住增長機會。

Financially, it was a unique opportunity to acquire a brand-new, high-quality expedition vessel significantly below the building costs and that is fully financed through an attractive, long-term unsecured financing arrangement. We expect this transaction to be immediately accretive to earnings, cash flow and ROIC.

在財務上，這是一個獨特的機會，可以以低於建造成本的價格收購一艘全新的高質量探險船，並且通過有吸引力的長期無擔保融資安排完全融資。我們預計這項交易將立即增加收益、現金流和投資回報率。

While the last 2.5 years were certainly challenging, we have proven that our business and company are resilient. Our business is now fully back up and running, and our operating platform is larger and stronger than it has ever been. We have the best brands in their respective segments, industry-leading ships and one-of-a-kind private destinations like Perfect Day. Our diverse distribution channels and commercial capabilities allow us to reach more quality demand. Our itineraries are strategically planned to be closer to home with an emphasis on shorter itineraries that appeal to both new-to-cruise and loyal customers.

雖然過去 2.5 年確實充滿挑戰，但我們已經證明我們的業務和公司具有韌性。我們的業務現已全面恢復運行，我們的運營平台比以往任何時候都更大、更強大。我們擁有各自細分市場中最好的品牌、行業領先的船舶和獨一無二的私人目的地，如 Perfect Day。我們多元化的分銷渠道和商業能力使我們能夠滿足更多的質量需求。我們的行程戰略性地計劃在離家更近的地方，強調更短的行程，以吸引新的郵輪和忠誠的客戶。

Our data shows that consumers seek vacations in all economic conditions. Cruising has always been an attractive value proposition when compared to land-based vacation alternatives. And that is truer today than ever before.

我們的數據顯示，消費者在所有經濟條件下都會尋求假期。與陸上度假選擇相比，巡航一直是一個有吸引力的價值主張。這在今天比以往任何時候都更加真實。

Our strategy remains consistent, continue to ramp up occupancy to generate yield growth while managing costs, enhancing profitability and repairing our balance sheet. Our business has a proven track record of generating robust cash flows through various economic cycles and our platform is bigger and better than ever before. Our liquidity is strong, and we have access to capital as we look to refinance debt and improve our balance sheet.

我們的戰略保持一致，繼續增加入住率以產生收益增長，同時管理成本、提高盈利能力和修復我們的資產負債表。我們的業務在通過各種經濟周期產生強勁的現金流方面有著良好的記錄，我們的平台比以往任何時候都更大更好。我們的流動性很強，在我們尋求為債務再融資和改善資產負債表時，我們可以獲得資金。

We continue to expect 2022 to be a strong transitional year as we approach historical occupancy levels. This will set a strong foundation for success into 2023 and beyond. We are also providing guidance for the third quarter for the first time since Q1 of 2020.

隨著我們接近歷史入住率水平，我們繼續預計 2022 年將是一個強勁的過渡年。這將為 2023 年及以後的成功奠定堅實的基礎。我們還自 2020 年第一季度以來首次為第三季度提供指導。

With our stronger platform and proven strategies, I am confident about our recovery trajectory and the future of the Royal Caribbean Group.

憑藉我們更強大的平台和經過驗證的戰略，我對我們的複蘇軌跡和皇家加勒比集團的未來充滿信心。

With that, I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

有了這個，我會把它交給納夫塔利。納夫？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by discussing our results for the second quarter.

謝謝你，傑森，大家早上好。讓我首先討論我們第二季度的業績。

This morning, we reported a net loss of approximately $500 million or $2.05 per share for the quarter. Revenue was $2.2 billion, double the first quarter. And we generated almost $0.5 billion of operating cash flow. EBITDA was $124 million and turned positive in May, a month before our expectations.

今天上午，我們報告本季度淨虧損約 5 億美元或每股 2.05 美元。收入為 22 億美元，是第一季度的兩倍。我們產生了近 5 億美元的運營現金流。 EBITDA 為 1.24 億美元，並在 5 月份轉為正值，比我們的預期提前一個月。

Second quarter results were meaningfully ahead of our expectations driven by accelerating demand, further improvement in onboard revenue and better cost performance. We expect these trends to continue.

在需求加速、船上收入進一步改善和成本績效改善的推動下，第二季度業績明顯超出了我們的預期。我們預計這些趨勢將繼續下去。

Our business is now back to generating cash beyond our operating and capital costs, which is further strengthening our strong liquidity position. It also positions us to continue to methodically and proactively improve the balance sheet and refinance near-term maturities.

我們的業務現在已恢復產生超出運營和資本成本的現金，這進一步加強了我們強大的流動性狀況。它還使我們能夠繼續有條不紊地、積極地改善資產負債表並為近期到期的再融資。

As Jason mentioned, we finished the second quarter at 82% load factors with June at just about 90% and North American product at about 100% overall. And in fact, our Caribbean itineraries finished the quarter at a load factor of 103% overall, with some ships receiving particularly strong close-in demand and sailing with occupancies as high as 107%. Our Northeast and West Coast products, including Alaska, sailed at around 90% in June. Load factors on our European itineraries, which were impacted by the Ukraine war averaged 75% in June.

正如 Jason 所提到的，我們在第二季度以 82% 的載客率結束，而 6 月的載客率僅為 90% 左右，而北美產品的整體載客率約為 100%。事實上，我們的加勒比航線在本季度結束時的總體載客率達到了 103%，其中一些船舶收到了特別強勁的近程需求，並且載客率高達 107%。我們的東北和西海岸產品，包括阿拉斯加，在 6 月份以 90% 左右的速度航行。受烏克蘭戰爭影響，我們歐洲行程的載客率在 6 月份平均為 75%。

During the second quarter, total revenue per passenger cruise day increased 5% in constant currency compared to the second quarter of 2019. Both ticket and onboard revenue continue to perform well for us even as we approach full occupancy.

在第二季度，按固定匯率計算，與 2019 年第二季度相比，每個乘客遊輪日的總收入增長了 5%。即使我們接近滿員，機票和船上的收入仍然表現良好。

As we discussed before, the inclusive pricing and packages offered by our brands blur the line between ticket and onboard revenue. Our goal is to maximize overall revenue, and the best way to evaluate performance is by focusing on our total cruise revenue metrics.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們品牌提供的包容性定價和套餐模糊了機票和機上收入之間的界限。我們的目標是最大化整體收入，而評估績效的最佳方式是關注我們的總郵輪收入指標。

Next, I will comment on capacity and load factor expectations over the coming period. We plan to operate about 11.6 million APCDs during the third quarter. From a deployment standpoint, just over 1/3 of our capacity is in the Caribbean, 1/3 is in Europe, and the remainder is mostly sailing North American itineraries, such as Alaska and Bermuda.

接下來，我將評論未來一段時間的運力和負載率預期。我們計劃在第三季度運營約 1160 萬台 APCD。從部署的角度來看，我們有超過 1/3 的運力在加勒比地區，1/3 在歐洲，其餘的主要是北美航線，例如阿拉斯加和百慕大。

As Jason mentioned, we have consistently seen strong demand across all open deployment. Overall, we expect load factors of approximately 95% for the third quarter and triple digits by the end of the year.

正如 Jason 所提到的，我們一直看到所有開放部署的強勁需求。總體而言，我們預計第三季度的載客率約為 95%，到今年年底將達到三位數。

Let me break down third quarter load factors by itinerary. We have been sailing at above 100% in the Caribbean since mid-June, and most of our other North American base itineraries are now averaging about 100%. The ramp-up has been a bit slower for European sailings, which were impacted by Omicron, the war in Ukraine and the COVID testing requirement for travelers returning to the United States.

讓我按行程細分第三季度的載客率。自 6 月中旬以來，我們在加勒比地區的航行率一直在 100% 以上，而我們大多數其他北美基地行程現在平均在 100% 左右。受 Omicron、烏克蘭戰爭和返回美國的旅客的 COVID 測試要求的影響，歐洲航行的增長速度有點慢。

The lifting of the testing requirement occurred well into the typical booking window for Europe. And while we saw improved booking trends, it occurred too late to have a meaningful impact on this summer sailings. Despite that, European sailings are now achieving average load factors of around 85%, but still well below other key itineraries in the third quarter.

測試要求的取消恰好發生在歐洲的典型預訂窗口中。雖然我們看到預訂趨勢有所改善，但為時已晚，無法對今年夏季的航行產生有意義的影響。儘管如此，歐洲航線目前的平均載客率達到了 85% 左右，但仍遠低於第三季度的其他主要航線。

This has two main impacts on our metrics. First, it pushed our recovery of 100% fleet-wide occupancy to the fourth quarter of 2022. And second, overall pricing appears less favorable in the third quarter when compared to 2019 levels because European sailings generate higher-than-average prices. The impact to pricing is isolated to the third quarter because of the heavier weighting of European deployment. Adjusting for this impact, price trends are more similar to the mid-single digits in recent quarters.

這對我們的指標有兩個主要影響。首先，它將我們 100% 的船隊佔用率恢復到 2022 年第四季度。其次，與 2019 年的水平相比，第三季度的整體定價似乎不太有利，因為歐洲航行產生的價格高於平均水平。由於歐洲部署的權重更大，對定價的影響僅限於第三季度。調整這種影響後，價格趨勢更類似於最近幾個季度的中個位數。

As expected, book load factors for sailings in the second half of 2022 remained below historical levels at slightly higher rates than 2019, both including and excluding FCCs. As Jason mentioned, accelerating demand levels and the recent booking pace are aligned with our load factor expectations for the third quarter.

正如預期的那樣，2022 年下半年航行的預定載客率仍低於歷史水平，略高於 2019 年，包括和不包括 FCC。正如 Jason 所提到的，不斷增長的需求水平和最近的預訂速度與我們對第三季度的載客率預期一致。

Our customer deposit balance as of June 30 was $4.2 billion, a record high for the company. Now that the full fleet is in service and occupancy is ramping up, we expect to return to a more typical seasonality in customer deposit levels.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的客戶存款餘額為 42 億美元，創下公司歷史新高。既然整個機隊都在服役並且入住率正在增加，我們預計客戶存款水平將恢復到更典型的季節性。

In the second quarter, approximately 90% of total bookings were new versus FCC redemptions. We continue to see the redemption of FCCs by our customers as ships returned back into service, deployment firmed up and protocols have been easing. To date, approximately 60% of the FCC balance has been redeemed and half of those have already sailed. Approximately 20% of customer deposit balance is related to FCCs, which is a 7% improvement from the last quarter.

在第二季度，大約 90% 的總預訂量是新的，而不是 FCC 的兌換。隨著船舶重新投入使用、部署得到加強以及協議一直在放鬆，我們繼續看到我們的客戶贖回 FCC。迄今為止，大約 60% 的 FCC 餘額已被贖回，其中一半已經航行。大約 20% 的客戶存款餘額與 FCC 相關，比上一季度提高了 7%。

For new bookings, we have returned to typical booking and cancellation policies that were relaxed during the pandemic.

對於新的預訂，我們已恢復在大流行期間放鬆的典型預訂和取消政策。

Shifting to costs. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD improved 60% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The second quarter costs included $7.75 per APCD related to enhanced health protocols and onetime costs to return ships and crew back to operations. We expect to see a significant improvement in net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD in the second half of 2022 compared to the first half.

轉向成本。與第一季度相比，第二季度的淨巡航成本（不包括每 APCD 的燃料）提高了 60%。第二季度的成本包括與增強的健康協議相關的每個 APCD 7.75 美元以及將船舶和船員返回運營的一次性成本。與上半年相比，我們預計 2022 年下半年淨巡航成本（不包括每 APCD 的燃料）將有顯著改善。

Lower expenses related to returning ships and crew to operations and easing health protocols as well as the fact that the full fleet is now back in operations are driving this improvement. In addition, the benefit from actions taken during the last 2 years to improve margins are now beginning to materialize as the full fleet is operating and occupancies are returning to historical levels. We expect this benefit to continue its ramp-up through 2022 and into 2023.

與讓船舶和船員恢復運營和放寬健康協議相關的較低費用以及整個船隊現在重新投入運營的事實正在推動這一改進。此外，隨著整個機隊的運營和入住率恢復到歷史水平，過去 2 年為提高利潤率而採取的行動所帶來的好處現在開始顯現。我們預計這一收益將在 2022 年和 2023 年繼續增加。

As Jason mentioned, we are actively managing inflationary pressures, mainly related to fuel and food. Our teams continue to demonstrate the ability to manage cost pressures while delivering the incredible vacations expected by our guests. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD, are expected to be higher by mid-single digits for the second half of 2022 when compared to 2019. Third quarter is expected to be higher.

正如傑森所說，我們正在積極管理通脹壓力，主要與燃料和食品有關。我們的團隊繼續展示管理成本壓力的能力，同時為客人提供令人難以置信的假期。與 2019 年相比，預計 2022 年下半年的淨巡航成本（不包括每 APCD 的燃料）將高出中個位數。預計第三季度會更高。

On the fuel side, we continue to improve consumption and have partially hedged the rate below market prices, which is mitigating the impact on our fuel costs. As of today, fuel consumption is 56% hedged for the remainder of 2022 and 36% for 2023. In the third quarter of 2022, our hedge position is 49%, which is slightly lower than the average for the second half of the year. On the other hand, consumption continues to improve across the fleet, driven by benefits from our prior investments to reduce our energy consumption and adding 8 new vessels to our fleet in the last 18 months.

在燃料方面，我們繼續改善消費並部分對沖低於市場價格的費率，這正在減輕對我們燃料成本的影響。截至今天，2022 年剩餘時間的油耗對沖率為 56%，2023 年為 36%。2022 年第三季度，我們的對沖頭寸為 49%，略低於下半年的平均水平。另一方面，在過去 18 個月中，我們為降低能源消耗而進行的投資以及在我們的船隊中增加了 8 艘新船，這推動了整個船隊的消耗量持續改善。

Shifting to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in liquidity. During the second quarter, we generated almost $0.5 billion of operating cash flow and repaid $700 million of debt maturities.

轉移到我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度結束時擁有 33 億美元的流動性。在第二季度，我們產生了近 5 億美元的經營現金流並償還了 7 億美元的到期債務。

Our liquidity remains strong, and we are now generating cash beyond our operating and capital costs. We are also expanding our margins to further enhance EBITDA and free cash flow.

我們的流動性依然強勁，我們現在產生的現金超出了我們的運營和資本成本。我們還在擴大利潤率，以進一步提高 EBITDA 和自由現金流。

We are very focused on returning to the balance sheet we had pre-COVID. Our plan is to methodically and proactively refinance near-term maturities and debt issued during the pandemic. We have demonstrated access to capital through the last 2 years, even in very challenging conditions as well as thoughtful management of the balance sheet.

我們非常專注於恢復我們在 COVID 之前的資產負債表。我們的計劃是有條不紊地、主動地為大流行期間發行的近期到期債券和債務再融資。在過去的 2 年中，我們展示了獲得資本的機會，即使在非常具有挑戰性的條件下以及對資產負債表的周到管理。

Now turning to guidance. We are providing guidance for the third quarter for the first time since Q1 2020. For the third quarter, and based on current currency exchange rates, fuel rates and interest rates, we expect to generate $2.9 billion to $3 billion in total revenues, adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $750 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.05 to $0.25. Due to increases in fuel rates, interest rates and foreign exchange, we expect a slight net loss for the second half of 2022.

現在轉向指導。自 2020 年第一季度以來，我們首次為第三季度提供指導。第三季度，根據當前的貨幣匯率、燃料費率和利率，我們預計將產生 29 億至 30 億美元的總收入，調整後 EBITDA 7億至7.5億美元，調整後每股收益為0.05至0.25美元。由於燃油費率、利率和外匯上漲，我們預計 2022 年下半年將出現小幅淨虧損。

We stay focused on executing on our recovery by ramping up our load factors, expanding margins and managing the balance sheet. When our business is fully operational, it generates significant cash flow. We are confident in our ability to continue on our recovery as we build the future of the Royal Caribbean Group.

我們通過提高載客率、擴大利潤率和管理資產負債表，繼續專注於執行我們的複蘇。當我們的業務全面運作時，它會產生大量現金流。在我們建設皇家加勒比集團的未來時，我們對繼續復甦的能力充滿信心。

With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for your questions.

有了這個，我會要求我們的接線員打開電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Steve Wieczynski 和 Stifel。

So Jason and Naftali, I mean, there's clearly concern out there in the marketplace today about your current liquidity position and the options that you guys have in terms of attacking, I think it's, let's call it, $5 billion plus of '23 debt maturities. At this point, we've seen one of your competitors go out and issue equity and raised debt north of 10%. So I guess the question everybody is trying to figure out is how can you get these maturities refinanced in the current high rate environment without the use of equity? And hopefully, that all makes sense.

所以傑森和納夫塔利，我的意思是，今天市場上顯然存在對你們目前的流動性狀況以及你們在進攻方面的選擇的擔憂，我認為這是，讓我們稱之為 50 億美元加上 23 年到期的債務.在這一點上，我們已經看到您的一個競爭對手出去發行股票並籌集了超過 10% 的債務。所以我想每個人都想弄清楚的問題是，在當前的高利率環境下，如何在不使用股權的情況下對這些到期債券進行再融資？希望這一切都說得通。

Okay. Well, thanks, Steve. I thought you were going to first start off and say, wow, you're back, positive EBITDA, positive cash flow. I was hoping for like a little bit of a hug. But I think to just kind of going into -- I know that there is focus around the balance sheet and especially in the current state of the capital markets.

好的。好吧，謝謝，史蒂夫。我以為你會首先開始說，哇，你回來了，正 EBITDA，正現金流。我希望得到一個小小的擁抱。但我認為只是進入 - 我知道圍繞資產負債表，特別是在資本市場的當前狀態下有焦點。

First, I think our business is clearly ramping up. We're generating cash flow after OpEx, after CapEx. We're not seeing slowing down in activity and demand. We're actually seeing acceleration with our bookings and onboard activity.

首先，我認為我們的業務顯然正在增長。我們在運營支出和資本支出之後產生現金流。我們沒有看到活動和需求放緩。實際上，我們的預訂和機上活動正在加速。

I think we have clearly shown through this that we have been very thoughtful and very methodical about capital raising, balancing liquidity and minimizing dilution, especially relative to others. And so I think when we have raised equity, it has been to manage liquidity and as we are right now, we are generating cash flow.

我認為我們已經清楚地表明，我們在籌資、平衡流動性和最大限度地減少稀釋方面非常周到和有條不紊，尤其是相對於其他方面而言。所以我認為，當我們籌集股本時，一直是為了管理流動性，就像我們現在一樣，我們正在產生現金流。

We do think we have access to the capital markets, and we are confident that we're going to be able to continue to manage our balance sheet and repair it here over time.

我們確實認為我們可以進入資本市場，我們相信我們將能夠繼續管理我們的資產負債表並隨著時間的推移在這裡修復它。

I would note that issuing equity, one is obviously, it's a Board decision. The bars are exceptionally high for us to be issuing equity. We don't have any plans to issue equity. What the Board is really focused on is how do we get back to pre-COVID levels as soon as possible and by that, meaning earnings, meaning ROIC and getting our balance sheet back and leverage back to what it was pre-COVID. So I think we feel that we have a plan and a path. And I think that the -- what we're seeing in the business and the improvement in the cash flow in the business is also giving us opportunity to be able to address some of these maturities with cash.

我要指出的是，發行股票顯然是董事會的決定。我們發行股票的門檻非常高。我們沒有任何發行股票的計劃。董事會真正關注的是我們如何盡快恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，這意味著收益、ROIC 以及讓我們的資產負債表恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。所以我認為我們覺得我們有一個計劃和一個路徑。而且我認為 - 我們在業務中看到的情況以及業務現金流的改善也讓我們有機會能夠用現金解決其中一些到期問題。

Okay. Understood. That's very clear. Second question is a -- it's going to be a two-part question. I guess, Jason, in your prepared remarks, you made a comment about how the business is getting back to pre-COVID levels. And I just want to understand maybe the timing a little bit more about the timing behind that comment.

好的。明白了。這很清楚。第二個問題是一個由兩部分組成的問題。我想，傑森，在你準備好的評論中，你對企業如何恢復到 COVID 之前的水平發表了評論。我只是想進一步了解該評論背後的時間安排。

And then the second question is the opportunity right now on the cost side with -- and what I mean by that is what the CDC essentially leaving you guys alone, so to speak. I'd assume there are probably hundreds of millions of COVID costs out there right now across the industry. I'm wondering potentially about the timing of getting, I guess, the majority of those costs removed.

然後第二個問題是現在在成本方面的機會 - 我的意思是 CDC 基本上讓你們獨自一人，可以這麼說。我假設現在整個行業可能有數億美元的 COVID 成本。我想知道消除大部分成本的時間。

Sure. Well, I'll leave the question on cost for Naf. The one thing I would say is, I don't know how it categorized as a CDC leaving us alone. I think it's us proving through empirical data that cruising is an extremely safe environment and that our protocols are working effectively. And like them, we follow the science and are managing it. But I think to your point, there is a significant amount of cost that we were spending on healthy return to service and testing and so forth, and I'll let Naf address here in a second.

當然。好吧，我將把關於成本的問題留給 Naf。我要說的一件事是，我不知道它是如何歸類為 CDC 的，讓我們獨自一人。我認為是我們通過經驗數據證明巡航是一個極其安全的環境，並且我們的協議正在有效地工作。和他們一樣，我們遵循科學並對其進行管理。但我認為，就您的觀點而言，我們在健康恢復服務和測試等方面花費了大量成本，我將讓 Naf 稍後在這裡解決。

So I think just to address a little bit on the pre-COVID, and I do appreciate the question because there are a number of factors that provide that I've talked about in my remarks, just incredible tailwinds to earnings and margin and returns as we accelerate to 2023 and beyond.

因此，我認為只是針對 COVID 之前的一些問題，我確實很欣賞這個問題，因為有許多因素提供了我在發言中談到的，只是對收益、利潤率和回報的難以置信的順風我們加速到 2023 年及以後。

As I mentioned, there are really strong secular trends, demographic trends that are providing tailwinds for our business. And the consumers are clearly looking to spend on experiences and of course, cruising has a really great value proposition relative to land-based vacations. I would argue it's way too good of a value proposition, and we're all working very hard on dealing that relative to land-based vacations.

正如我所提到的，確實存在強大的長期趨勢，人口趨勢為我們的業務提供了順風。消費者顯然希望在體驗上花錢，當然，與陸上度假相比，巡航具有非常重要的價值主張。我認為它的價值主張太好了，我們都在努力處理與陸上假期相關的問題。

Also during the past few years, we worked pretty hard on reshaping our cost structure, improving our margin profile, like reducing non-guest-facing costs. We divested out of low-margin businesses to position ourselves for significant margin growth.

同樣在過去的幾年裡，我們非常努力地重塑我們的成本結構，改善我們的利潤狀況，比如降低非客人的成本。我們剝離了低利潤業務，以實現顯著的利潤率增長。

Also like our brands, they are leading positions with each -- in each of their respective sectors, and we continue to go out and build the most innovative fleet in the industry. And that growth will lead to higher margins, as we've talked about in the past, better inventory mix, better onboard revenue venue, better fuel consumption and more scale brings more margin onto our G&A.

與我們的品牌一樣，它們在各自的每個領域都處於領先地位，我們將繼續走出去，打造業內最具創新性的車隊。正如我們過去所說，這種增長將帶來更高的利潤率，更好的庫存組合、更好的船上收入場所、更好的油耗和更大的規模為我們的 G&A 帶來更多的利潤。

And then with my comments today about the CDC and our change in our policies around that, and when we look at our booking environment that is accelerating, we expect 2023 to be a normal operating year. And by normal, I mean, we'll be at normal load factors, we'll be at better rates, and that will all lead to strong EBITDA and earnings performance. And with that comes positive cash flow and that cash flow will be prioritized and scrutinized to make sure -- and going towards high-returning investments and deleveraging. And we do anticipate swiftly reducing our negative carry, which will then return us to pre-COVID earnings over the next couple of years.

然後，我今天就 CDC 以及我們對此政策的變化發表了評論，當我們看到我們正在加速的預訂環境時，我們預計 2023 年將是一個正常的運營年。正常情況下，我的意思是，我們將處於正常的負載率，我們將處於更好的利率，這都將導致強勁的 EBITDA 和盈利表現。隨之而來的是正現金流，現金流將被優先考慮和審查，以確保 - 並走向高回報投資和去槓桿化。我們確實預計會迅速減少我們的負利差，這將使我們在未來幾年內恢復到 COVID 之前的收益。

I do want to be clear that getting back to pre-COVID financial metrics, it's part of the journey. I think we call it internally just getting back to base camp. So we're not going to be doing laps around the building when we get to pre-COVID levels because our ambitions around our financial performance based off of our brands, our ships, our growth is much greater than just getting to pre-COVID levels. And I do anticipate as we get towards the latter part of this year, giving a lot more color and definition to a longer-term program, which will include getting to base camp and beyond, and our plan is to get more clarity as we have done in the past with programs like double-double that help us galvanize our internal teams to focus on delivering on those results.

我確實想明確一點，回到 COVID 之前的財務指標，這是旅程的一部分。我想我們在內部稱之為回到大本營。因此，當我們達到 COVID 之前的水平時，我們不會繞著大樓跑幾圈，因為我們對基於我們的品牌、我們的船舶、我們的增長的財務業績的雄心遠大於僅僅達到 COVID 之前的水平.而且我確實預計，隨著我們進入今年下半年，為長期計劃提供更多色彩和定義，其中包括到達大本營及其他地方，我們的計劃是像我們一樣變得更加清晰過去通過雙雙之類的計劃來幫助我們激勵我們的內部團隊專注於實現這些結果。

Steve, it's Naf. So let me just touch on your costs. So you're right. In the earnings release, we also disclosed that in this quarter, in the second quarter, we had $7.75 per APCD cost that is related to the health protocols as well as onetime cost to return to ships and crew back to operation. And just as a reminder, we actually returned eight ships in the second quarter. So that's obviously part of the cost.

史蒂夫，我是納夫。所以讓我談談你的成本。所以你是對的。在收益發布中，我們還披露，在本季度，在第二季度，我們每個 APCD 成本為 7.75 美元，這與健康協議以及返回船舶和船員恢復運營的一次性成本有關。提醒一下，我們實際上在第二季度退回了八艘船。所以這顯然是成本的一部分。

And as we look forward into the rest of 2022, we expect the improvement in our cruise costs. Part of it is because of those easing protocols. And then as we look beyond that, we think that those costs will be materially eliminated and be absorbed whatever is left into the business.

隨著我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望，我們預計我們的遊輪成本會有所改善。部分原因是因為那些寬鬆的協議。然後，當我們超越這一點時，我們認為這些成本將被實質上消除，並被吸收到業務中。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

I wanted to ask about how quickly you think you might be able to remove the test requirement for the 6-plus, 7-plus day cruises just since that's the majority of your itineraries, how quickly you may be able to do that, which obviously would be a demand driver?

我想問一下您認為您可以多快取消對 6 天以上、7 天以上的遊輪的測試要求，因為這是您的大部分行程，您可以多快做到這一點，顯然會是需求驅動力嗎？

Yes. So we're starting off here by doing the 5 days or less and we're going to look at that. But I think our expectation here, call it, in the next 45 days or so. And of course, following local requirements, which will somewhat dictate in some of our destinations, what those testing requirements will be that the majority of the testing requirements will be lifted, especially around the majority of our deployment. We might, depending on where the ships are going, take some additional protocols and of course, we're going to continue to follow where COVID is in society and take the necessary actions.

是的。所以我們從這裡開始，做 5 天或更短的時間，我們會看看。但我認為我們在這裡的期望，稱之為，在接下來的 45 天左右。當然，根據當地要求（這在我們的某些目的地會有所規定），這些測試要求將是什麼，大多數測試要求將被取消，尤其是在我們的大部分部署中。根據船舶的去向，我們可能會採取一些額外的協議，當然，我們將繼續關注 COVID 在社會中的位置並採取必要的行動。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up on the maturities that are related the expert credit agencies, is there an opportunity to push back some of those maturities given that they don't have the same lending characteristics as a lot of your capital markets maturities? And is that something that could happen sooner rather than later?

好的。偉大的。然後，作為與專家信用機構相關的到期日的後續行動，是否有機會推遲其中一些到期日，因為它們與您的許多資本市場到期日不具有相同的貸款特徵？那是不是遲早會發生？

Robin, it's Naftali. So as you noted, our relationships with the ECAs are very, very strong. They have supported us as well as our commercial banks or other lending partners throughout the pandemic through multiple actions. And we have not -- we don't have anything to talk about today. We are very confident with our ability to generate free cash flow to cover operating and capital costs. Our liquidity is strong. So we're very confident that we can manage the maturities in the next 18 months.

羅賓，我是納夫塔利。正如你所指出的，我們與 ECA 的關係非常非常牢固。在整個大流行期間，他們通過多種行動支持了我們以及我們的商業銀行或其他貸款合作夥伴。而且我們沒有——我們今天沒有什麼要談的。我們對產生自由現金流以支付運營和資本成本的能力非常有信心。我們的流動性很強。因此，我們非常有信心在未來 18 個月內管理好到期日。

Your next question comes from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

It sounds like, and this is totally fair, that the European occupancy numbers were impacted by Ukraine and then also some of the reentry testing requirements. But have you seen a pickup in bookings for those? It sounds like '22 is not going to benefit. But as you look into '23, have you seen those European bookings numbers accelerate as some of those reentry testing requirements were lifted?

聽起來，這是完全公平的，歐洲的入住人數受到烏克蘭的影響，然後還有一些再入測試要求。但是你有沒有看到這些預訂量有所增加？聽起來'22不會受益。但是，當您查看 23 年時，您是否看到隨著某些再入測試要求的取消，這些歐洲的預訂數量有所增加？

Well, I'll just -- I think a few comments. One, on 2022, as soon as that -- the U.S. testing requirement was lifted, I think we immediately saw a 9% or 10% lift in our booking activity for the summer sailings, and summer sailings mean the 2022 sailings. So we've actually made up quite a bit of ground since that was lifted. And of course, you're getting flights close in. It can also be a challenge, especially in the current state of the airline world in Europe. But we have seen very strong demand for Europe for 2023.

好吧，我只想-- 我想提幾點意見。一，在 2022 年，一旦取消了美國的測試要求，我認為我們立即看到夏季航行的預訂活動增加了 9% 或 10%，而夏季航行意味著 2022 年的航行。因此，自從那項被取消以來，我們實際上已經彌補了相當多的基礎。當然，您的航班即將起飛。這也可能是一個挑戰，尤其是在歐洲航空業的當前狀況下。但我們看到 2023 年對歐洲的需求非常強勁。

The volume really starts to pick up here as we exit the summer. But from what we can see relative to 2019 levels or historical levels, we do expect Europe to act and behave very similar to what it did in 2019 in terms of load factors and rates.

當我們離開夏天時，這裡的音量真的開始回升。但從相對於 2019 年水平或歷史水平的情況來看，我們確實預計歐洲在載客率和費率方面的表現和表現與 2019 年非常相似。

Perfect. And then I guess just all the metrics that you guys gave, Jason, was super helpful just from a consumer health perspective. But if you look at all the strong spending, both predeparture and onboard, and it seems a little bit of a disconnect versus some of the comments you've heard from Walmart and some of these other retailers, like can you sort of explain that away from where you sit just a customer base difference? Is there something structurally different? I mean how do you sort of see the consumer spending holding up here going forward?

完美的。然後我猜你們給出的所有指標，傑森，從消費者健康的角度來看都是非常有幫助的。但是，如果您查看所有強勁的支出，無論是出發前還是船上的，與您從沃爾瑪和其他一些零售商那裡聽到的一些評論相比，這似乎有點脫節，比如您能解釋一下嗎從你坐在哪裡只是一個客戶群的差異？結構上有什麼不同嗎？我的意思是，您如何看待未來的消費者支出？

No, I think it's two things, and certainly, Michael and Naf can hop in on others. But I think first and foremost, we're not -- like we're not selling stuff. We're selling experiences. Yes, we might have a couple of things you're buying in a retail store on our ships. But in reality, right, the vast majority of that spend orbits around experiences, creating memories, multigenerational travel, et cetera, that people are -- when they have a lot of pent-up demand for it, and I think they also value experience and relationships differently than they did historically. So I think that's one tailwind.

不，我認為這是兩件事，當然，邁克爾和納夫可以加入其他人。但我認為首先，我們不是——就像我們不賣東西一樣。我們賣的是經驗。是的，您可能在我們船上的零售店購買了一些東西。但實際上，對，絕大多數花費圍繞著體驗、創造記憶、多代旅行等等，當人們對它有很多被壓抑的需求時，我認為他們也重視體驗和歷史上不同的關係。所以我認為這是一個順風。

The second tailwind, which we had been -- or talking about a pre-COVID and we continue to invest in it during COVID was that we replaced our commerce engine for pre-cruise or for our onboard sales. And so shifting more and more of that purchase pre-cruise that effectively becomes one, they're able to plan and experience as they want. So they're getting what they want in terms of the customer, but also that becomes a sum cost to them. They've already paid that credit card bill, et cetera and so it's new spend for them to consider.

第二個順風，我們曾經 - 或者談論的是 COVID 之前的情況，我們在 COVID 期間繼續投資它是我們更換了我們的商務引擎以進行巡航前或我們的船上銷售。因此，越來越多的旅行前購買實際上變成了一種，他們能夠按照自己的意願進行計劃和體驗。因此，他們在客戶方面得到了他們想要的東西，但這也成為了他們的總成本。他們已經支付了信用卡賬單等等，所以這是他們需要考慮的新支出。

So I think those two things, and of course, our teams have become much, much more sophisticated and yield managing and enhancing the experience that people are willing to buy, I think, is what's driving that uplift more than anything else. Michael?

所以我認為這兩件事，當然，我們的團隊已經變得更加複雜，收益管理和增強人們願意購買的體驗，我認為，是推動這種提升的最重要因素。邁克爾?

So Fred, it's Michael. Just to add one nugget of information to Jason's comments. We've seen -- really it's been an amazing response to our software and our communication and how we've been talking to the customers about experience. And just one nugget is that yesterday, we sold one -- just one of our overwater cabanas for 1 day for $4,000. And we just see there's just a lot of demand for these experiences, as Jason said. And we've also seen this in Alaska, for example, with the product that we have in Alaska that people just seem to be more willing to open their wallets and purchase these experiences. So it's been a very positive response to a lot of the products and services and experiences that we have.

所以弗雷德，是邁克爾。只是為了給 Jason 的評論添加一點信息。我們已經看到——這真的是對我們的軟件和我們的溝通以及我們如何與客戶談論體驗的驚人反應。只有一個金塊是昨天，我們以 4,000 美元的價格賣了一個 - 只是我們的一個水上小屋 1 天。正如傑森所說，我們只是看到對這些體驗的需求很大。我們在阿拉斯加也看到了這一點，例如，我們在阿拉斯加擁有的產品，人們似乎更願意打開錢包併購買這些體驗。因此，這是對我們擁有的許多產品、服務和體驗的非常積極的回應。

Yes. The only thing I would just add just anecdotally, we all bought -- we bought a lot of stuff during the pandemic. I'm sure like all of you, I had 10 Amazon boxes show up in my house every single day. And I think people have absorbed and consumed all that they're looking -- I mean, I'm using hyperbole here, but things that they want to buy. And I think they're really again, very, very focused on experience.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，我們都買了——我們在大流行期間買了很多東西。我敢肯定，和你們所有人一樣，我家每天都會出現 10 個亞馬遜盒子。而且我認為人們已經吸收並消費了他們正在尋找的所有東西——我的意思是，我在這裡使用誇張，但他們想要購買的東西。而且我認為他們真的再次非常非常注重經驗。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

On the bookings side, you guys mentioned plus 30% in 2Q versus the same period in 2019. It sounded like that got -- my interpretation was that got better through the quarter and then a lot better than that. Presumably, the CDC change would drive incremental demand above and beyond that. Have you guys thought about how you're going to message that to the consumer? Like is there just going to be -- are you expecting there's just going to be kind of like -- like the news is going to pick that up? Or are you guys going to reach out like proactively? [Would love] to hear how you're thinking about it.

在預訂方面，你們提到第二季度與 2019 年同期相比增加了 30%。聽起來好像是這樣——我的解釋是整個季度變得更好，然後比這好得多。據推測，CDC 的變化將推動需求的增長。你們有沒有想過如何向消費者傳達信息？就像會有 - 你是否期望會有那樣的 - 就像新聞會出現這種情況？還是你們會主動伸出援手？ [很想] 聽聽你的想法。

Ben, it's Michael. Yes, I mean, I think what we're going to see today, we're already expecting it and our call centers are prepared. And we've already worked on, obviously, our talking points and what have you. It's already going out into social media. We've started communicating to our distribution, and we're starting to communicate through e-mails to our customer base.

本，是邁克爾。是的，我的意思是，我認為我們今天會看到什麼，我們已經在期待它，我們的呼叫中心已經準備好了。顯然，我們已經研究了我們的談話要點和你有什麼。它已經進入社交媒體。我們已經開始與我們的分銷商進行溝通，並且我們開始通過電子郵件與我們的客戶群進行溝通。

So this kind of change, I think, we'll be seeing very positively. And we've got some distributors who have been anxiously awaiting changes as long as -- along with many of our customers. One of the calculations that we have is about 40% of all of the FCCs that are sitting on the buy lines of people who've been waiting for the protocols to change. So I think this easement and this change is going to be viewed very positively. So we're expecting to see an increase in bookings literally starting today.

所以這種變化，我認為，我們會看到非常積極的。我們有一些經銷商，他們一直在焦急地等待變化 - 以及我們的許多客戶。我們的一項計算是，大約 40% 的 FCC 坐在等待協議更改的人們的購買線上。所以我認為這種地役權和這種變化將被非常積極地看待。因此，我們預計從今天開始，預訂量會有所增加。

That's helpful. And then you mentioned $500 million in operating cash flow in the quarter. And then based on the net income guide, I think napkin math would suggest that I think almost taken over $1 billion in operating cash flow in 3Q. Is there anything on the working capital side I need to consider that would throw that off?

這很有幫助。然後你提到本季度的運營現金流為 5 億美元。然後根據淨收入指南，我認為餐巾紙數學表明我認為第三季度的經營現金流幾乎超過了 10 億美元。營運資金方面有什麼我需要考慮的事情嗎？

Yes. So I think the way I would characterize it is that we are generating now positive EBITDA and cash flow. We are covering more than our operating costs and capital costs. And there's nothing unique in the third quarter in terms of anything to point out. And all that cash flow will be to prioritize to pay down debt.

是的。因此，我認為我將描述它的方式是，我們現在正在產生正的 EBITDA 和現金流。我們所涵蓋的不僅僅是我們的運營成本和資本成本。就任何需要指出的方面而言，第三季度沒有什麼獨特之處。所有這些現金流都將優先用於償還債務。

Yes. I think the only one comment I want to make about I think, just broader working capital just to keep in mind is we're now in the high season, right? And we've added capacity with -- during this time. So our customer deposit balance has been rising. But there will -- we're moving into now a zone as we're getting to normal load factors that we'll now start to see the historical seasonality of customer deposits. So I would just kind of keep that in mind as you're looking at comparables to previous quarters that I would look more in how it is -- in previous period on a seasonality basis than I would quarter-over-quarter.

是的。我想我想發表的唯一一條評論是，更廣泛的營運資金只是要記住，我們現在正處於旺季，對吧？在此期間，我們增加了容量。所以我們的客戶存款餘額一直在上升。但是會有 - 我們現在正在進入一個區域，因為我們正在達到正常的負載率，我們現在將開始看到客戶存款的歷史季節性。因此，當您查看與前幾個季度的可比性時，我會牢記這一點，我會更多地關注它的情況——在上一季度的季節性基礎上，而不是季度環比。

Your next question comes the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

I was wondering if you could just address, Jason or Michael or anyone, the perception from the market that there's an elevated level of discounting for the industry overall. I mean, obviously, that doesn't really foot with the really good accelerating booking volume commentary that you guys are saying. But obviously, I'm wondering how much of that is related to the still sort of COVID-19 protocols and we're just waiting for the experience to normalize?

我想知道你是否可以解決，Jason 或 Michael 或任何人，市場認為整個行業的折扣水平較高。我的意思是，顯然，這與你們所說的非常好的加速預訂量評論不符。但顯然，我想知道其中有多少與仍然存在的 COVID-19 協議有關，我們只是在等待體驗正常化？

Well, I think I'll just make a few comments and sorry, Michael, please jump in on it. So first, I think that there is a reality of -- we're packaging much more than we have had in the past. And some of that comes and that accelerates some of the pre-cruise activity that I was talking about in terms of the onboard experience. So depending on how you're looking at the discounting, sometimes it's more about geography of what's going into ticket and what's going in to onboard. And so there's a little bit of that reality that has been evolving now for many, many years, not just with us but also inside the industry.

好吧，我想我會發表一些評論，抱歉，邁克爾，請加入。所以首先，我認為有一個現實——我們的包裝比過去要多得多。其中一些來了，這加速了我在船上體驗方面談論的一些巡航前活動。因此，根據您對折扣的看法，有時更多的是關於機票和機上的地理位置。因此，這種現實已經發展了很多很多年，不僅在我們身上，而且在行業內部。

And then there's also -- we brought up 8 ships in the second quarter. And so as we're bringing those ships up and there's more shore product, et cetera, some of those comparables look like there's -- it's a highly promotional environment, which is more promotional than it typically is. But it's something that is yielding higher rates because that combination of the ticket and the onboard are yielding a higher APD.

然後還有——我們在第二季度推出了 8 艘船。因此，當我們將這些船升上來並且有更多的岸上產品等等時，其中一些類似產品看起來像是 - 這是一個高度促銷的環境，比通常情況下更具促銷性。但這會產生更高的費率，因為機票和機上的組合會產生更高的 APD。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then a follow-up on Naftali's comments in his prepared remarks about the adjusted mid-single digit sort of net revenue per PCD in the 3Q. That will be 2 quarters where you guys have net revenue per PCD mid-single digits versus '19. I'm just curious, considering both those quarters had heavily disrupted booking cycles as well as notable COVID-19 constraints, again, which you talked about. Is there any reason why we shouldn't think of that mid-single digit as a base case going forward?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後是 Naftali 在他準備好的評論中對第三季度每 PCD 的調整後的中個位數淨收入的評論的後續評論。這將是 2 個季度，與 19 年相比，你們每 PCD 的淨收入為中個位數。我只是很好奇，考慮到這兩個季度的預訂週期都嚴重中斷，並且再次受到您所說的 COVID-19 的顯著限制。有什麼理由我們不應該將這個中個位數視為未來的基本情況？

Well, I think that what we're seeing, and even in our commentary into 2023, right, being within historical ranges at higher rates, I think that's what we're continuing to see. And I think it also leads a little bit into my comments about the value proposition, right? There is a very healthy gap and a larger gap today than there has been with land-based vacations. And I think when -- now that these protocols are falling off and we're operating and our guests who are incredible advocates of ours are sharing their experiences and telling them that cruise is just like what it was pre-COVID, that all of that is kind of manifesting into this opportunity where people look at cruising and saying, wow, this is a really good value proposition. And even if I pay a little bit more money, it's still a huge gap to if I did a land-based vacation.

好吧，我認為我們所看到的，甚至在我們對 2023 年的評論中，對，以更高的比率處於歷史範圍內，我認為這就是我們將繼續看到的。而且我認為這也導致了我對價值主張的評論，對吧？與陸上度假相比，今天的差距非常健康，而且差距更大。我認為，現在這些協議正在失效，我們正在運營，我們的客人是我們令人難以置信的倡導者，他們正在分享他們的經驗，並告訴他們郵輪就像 COVID 之前一樣，所有這一切有點體現在這個機會中，人們看著巡航並說，哇，這是一個非常好的價值主張。即使我多付一點錢，與我進行陸上度假仍有很大差距。

Congrats on the results.

祝賀結果。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

You talked about using cash flow to focus on deleveraging as well as high-returning investments. I think part of that's your investments in your existing ships. Can you talk about how you approach maintaining those through COVID? And what type of kind of cash CapEx for the existing fleet you kind of envision in '22 or '23?

您談到了使用現金流來專注於去槓桿以及高回報的投資。我認為其中一部分是您對現有船隻的投資。你能談談你是如何通過 COVID 來維護這些的嗎？您在 22 年或 23 年設想的現有機隊的現金資本支出類型是什麼？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So first, throughout the last 2 years, we were very focused. One of our guiding principle was to maintain the quality and the health of our assets. And we continue to do dry docks. We -- the way that we laid out the ships was very unique such that when we knew that when we come back, we would minimize the need for more investment on maintenance.

是的。謝謝你的問題。首先，在過去的兩年裡，我們非常專注。我們的指導原則之一是保持資產的質量和健康。我們繼續做乾船塢。我們 - 我們佈置船隻的方式非常獨特，因此當我們知道當我們回來時，我們會盡量減少對維護的更多投資。

And I think we're very, very pleasantly surprised and as expected, as we are now back to operations, we don't see any elevated needs for capital for any deferred maintenance. So of course, we're doing kind of regular maintenance dry docks. And those are very -- those are obviously within our numbers that we've shared with you, but there's nothing elevated outside of that. And we, at this point, generating cash flow beyond our operating capital needs. And again, as you mentioned, we are prioritizing that cash flow to pay down debt.

而且我認為我們非常非常驚喜，並且正如預期的那樣，由於我們現在已經恢復運營，我們沒有看到任何延期維護的資金需求增加。所以當然，我們正在做定期維護幹船塢。這些非常 - 這些顯然在我們與您分享的數字範圍內，但除此之外沒有任何提升。在這一點上，我們產生的現金流量超出了我們的運營資本需求。再一次，正如你提到的，我們正在優先考慮現金流來償還債務。

The other point I just wanted to add, which -- just a bit on Naf's point, that we had invested a significant amount of money pre-COVID in the modernization of our fleet. As our ships got more and more innovative and larger and more incredible activities to do, that gap was widening. And we -- pre-COVID, we closed that gap considerably by adding a lot of those features onto our legacy fleet. And so that's why I think we -- as Naf said, we will continue to invest in high-returning programs. But we've actually invested a lot to keep our core business relevance within our brands.

我只想補充的另一點，這只是 Naf 的一點，我們在 COVID 之前投入了大量資金來實現我們機隊的現代化。隨著我們的船越來越多的創新、越來越大、越來越不可思議的活動要做，這種差距正在擴大。我們 - 在 COVID 之前，我們通過在我們的舊機隊中添加許多這些功能來大大縮小這一差距。這就是為什麼我認為我們 - 正如 Naf 所說，我們將繼續投資於高回報項目。但我們實際上已經投入了大量資金來保持我們品牌的核心業務相關性。

And another kind of housekeeping item on the modeling front. Talk a little bit about fuel. I think that the guide for 3Q came in a little bit higher than I would have thought, especially with the recent decline in fuel prices. How are you thinking about kind of pricing into next year? And can you talk about any changes going on in mix versus pre-COVID, MGO versus IFO and any efficiencies to keep in mind on the consumption per ALBD?

以及造型前端的另一種家政項目。稍微談談燃料。我認為第三季度的指引比我想像的要高一點，尤其是在最近燃料價格下跌的情況下。您如何考慮明年的定價方式？您能否談談混合與 COVID 之前、MGO 與 IFO 的任何變化以及每個 ALBD 消耗的任何效率？

Yes. So thanks for the question. So first, on the consumption side, we continue to make progress on improvement on consumption. We did it the last several years, and that continues to happen. Obviously, we have newer ships that are much more efficient. So I think on the consumption side, obviously, we're continuing to make that progress.

是的。所以謝謝你的問題。首先，在消費方面，我們繼續在改善消費方面取得進展。在過去的幾年裡，我們做到了，而且這種情況還在繼續發生。顯然，我們有效率更高的新型戰艦。所以我認為在消費方面，顯然，我們正在繼續取得進展。

Specifically about the quarter, two things in mind. One, in my prepared remarks, I mentioned that we are lower than the average in terms of our hedging and that obviously impacts some of that fuel cost in the third quarter, but we are obviously going to be higher hedged in the fourth quarter.

具體關於季度，請記住兩件事。一，在我準備好的講話中，我提到我們的對沖水平低於平均水平，這顯然會影響第三季度的部分燃料成本，但我們顯然會在第四季度進行更高的對沖。

The other thing is that the consumption is a little bit more skewed in this quarter towards MGO and less IFO, is also contributing to a little bit of a higher field expense. But it's very isolated to the third quarter.

另一件事是，本季度的消費更傾向於 MGO 和更少的 IFO，這也導致了更高的現場費用。但這與第三季度非常孤立。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital.

您的下一個問題來自麥格理資本的 Paul Golding。

Congrats on returning to positive EBITDA and cash flow. I wanted to circle back on Naf's comments in terms of the shorter itineraries to attract new-to-cruise. Is this sort of a post-COVID only move? Or is this something maybe a bit more structural that we should expect to see just in terms of jump starting the new-to-cruise return? And are there any costs associated with what may or may not be based on your response, a higher mix of shorter itineraries and certainly, that lines up with the testing requirement commentary as well? And then I have a follow-up about the booking curve.

恭喜您恢復正的 EBITDA 和現金流。我想回顧一下 Naf 關於較短行程以吸引新遊輪的評論。這種只是後COVID的舉動嗎？或者這可能是我們應該期望看到的更具結構性的東西，只是在開始新的巡航回歸方面？是否有任何成本與可能或可能不基於您的響應、較短行程的更高組合以及當然與測試要求評論一致？然後我對預訂曲線進行了跟進。

Paul, it's Michael. No, I mean we've been very focused on new-to-cruise pre-COVID. We had a great degree of success of generating new-to-cruise, and it's always been part of our strategic intent. And we planned and had tactics around that. And we feel like we were making exceptional progress pre-COVID.

保羅，是邁克爾。不，我的意思是我們一直非常關注 COVID 之前的新郵輪。我們在創造新郵輪方面取得了很大的成功，這一直是我們戰略意圖的一部分。我們對此進行了計劃並製定了策略。我們覺得我們在 COVID 之前取得了非凡的進展。

Post COVID, and I think we commented in the past that the real return was supported by our loyal guests and the new-to-cruise lag behind, but we've now kind of normalized, and we see the new-to-cruise returning to kind of pre-COVID levels. So -- but certainly, the shore product is the on-ramp for new-to-cruise. And with Perfect Day, which now we're close to taking 10,000 people a day to Perfect Day, which is proving to be a real continued success and it really does draw the new-to-cruise. So it was, it is and it will continue to be very much part of our overall strategy.

發布 COVID 後，我認為我們過去曾評論說，真正的回歸得到了我們忠實客人的支持，而新遊輪落後，但我們現在已經正常化，我們看到新遊輪迴歸達到 COVID 之前的水平。所以 - 但可以肯定的是，岸上產品是新巡航的入口。有了 Perfect Day，現在我們每天接近 10,000 人參加 Perfect Day，這被證明是一個真正的持續成功，它確實吸引了新的郵輪。過去如此，現在如此，它將繼續成為我們整體戰略的重要組成部分。

And I think just one point to add, we're also staying very kind of tuned in with the customer. And during COVID or the early days, they were very locally minded. Now, they're becoming much more regionally minded as we're seeing them being comfortable booking in different products in North America, booking products in Europe as they kind of now move more and more towards back being globally minded, which is where they were pre-COVID. And I think we're very tuned in. Our brands are very tuned into that. And in many cases, the product or the itineraries are a reflection of where we think the consumer is today relative to their travel preferences.

而且我認為要補充一點，我們也與客戶保持密切聯繫。在新冠疫情期間或早期，他們非常注重本地化。現在，他們變得更加具有區域意識，因為我們看到他們在北美預訂不同產品時感到很舒服，在歐洲預訂產品，因為他們現在越來越傾向於回歸全球意識，這就是他們所在的地方疫情前。而且我認為我們非常關注。我們的品牌非常關注這一點。在許多情況下，產品或行程反映了我們認為當今消費者相對於他們的旅行偏好的位置。

And then on the booking curve, the commentary in the press release continues to suggest a closer-in trend, I guess. Are you seeing the closer-in trend abate at all? And to what extent do you see that maybe as being a bit more structural? Does that inform sort of how we should think about your commentary in future periods on the booking curve? And just any commentary around the consumer trend in terms of how far out the booking -- tends to be right now?

然後在預訂曲線上，我猜新聞稿中的評論繼續暗示一種更接近的趨勢。您是否看到逼近趨勢完全減弱？您認為這在多大程度上可能更具結構性？這是否說明我們應該如何看待您在未來期間對預訂曲線的評論？就預訂的距離而言，關於消費趨勢的任何評論——往往是現在？

Well, I think -- I mean, what we're seeing is that the booking curve is no longer really contracting. It's now expanding again. So I do think we expect it to return here over the coming, call it, 6 months or so to a normal level of a booking window relative to historical activity. But as our ships are coming up and as I think people are -- as protocols begin to fall away here now, we would expect there to be a further acceleration in close-in demand for whatever inventory is left, which can lean a little bit on that macro statistic around the booking window. But what we have seen over the coming -- over the past several weeks and months, is that window beginning to extend.

好吧，我認為 - 我的意思是，我們看到的是預訂曲線不再真正收縮。現在又開始擴張了。因此，我確實認為我們預計它會在未來 6 個月左右回到這裡，相對於歷史活動而言，預訂窗口的正常水平。但是，隨著我們的船即將到來，正如我認為的人們一樣——隨著協議現在開始在這裡消失，我們預計對剩餘庫存的接近需求將進一步加速，這可能會有所減少關於預訂窗口周圍的宏觀統計數據。但我們在接下來的幾周和幾個月裡看到的是，這個窗口開始擴大。

Just to add to Jason's point, I mean if you think about our deployment during this period, we had a lot more regional drive-to products. So we skewed a little bit more heavily towards that drive-to product, which is easier in many ways to book and has less logistics to deal with. So I think it did kind of favor a later booking pattern because of that.

補充一下 Jason 的觀點，我的意思是，如果您考慮一下我們在此期間的部署，我們有更多的區域性驅動產品。因此，我們更傾向於使用免下車產品，這種產品在許多方面更容易預訂，而且需要處理的物流更少。因此，我認為它確實有利於以後的預訂模式。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Politzer with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Daniel Politzer。

So I had a question on the net cruise costs. I think you mentioned that they should be higher for the second half of 2022, but I think you said mid-single digits with a sequential improvement. I mean, as we think about kind of the pacing of that and going into 2023, should it continue to improve? Or is inflation going to be offsetting some of that improvement?

所以我有一個關於淨遊輪費用的問題。我認為你提到他們應該在 2022 年下半年更高，但我認為你說的是中個位數，並有連續的改善。我的意思是，當我們考慮這種節奏並進入 2023 年時，它是否應該繼續改善？還是通脹會抵消部分改善？

Yes. So thanks for the question. So yes, we do expect to see an improvement in mid-single digits for the second half, and this should be also a sequential improvement from a quarter-to-quarter as the protocols are easing. Obviously, we're building the load factors as well. And as we look into 2023, our goal is to get to our pre-COVID margins as soon as possible.

是的。所以謝謝你的問題。所以，是的，我們確實預計下半年會出現中個位數的改善，隨著協議的放鬆，這也應該是一個季度到一個季度的連續改善。顯然，我們也在構建負載因子。展望 2023 年，我們的目標是盡快達到 COVID 之前的利潤率。

On one hand, as you mentioned, there is inflation, and we mentioned -- commented on the baskets that are impacting us the most. On the other hand, we also, as Jason mentioned, we've done a lot in the last 2 years to reshape our cost structure and we expect that to ramp up this second half and well into 2023.

一方面，正如你所提到的，存在通貨膨脹，我們提到 - 評論了對我們影響最大的籃子。另一方面，正如 Jason 所提到的，我們在過去 2 年中做了很多工作來重塑我們的成本結構，我們預計這將在下半年和 2023 年大幅增加。

Got it. And then as the COVID protocols have been taken away and you would think that there's going to be accelerated demand, how do you think about maybe ramping up marketing expenses in the coming quarters just given it's probably a little bit different than your typical seasonality?

知道了。然後隨著 COVID 協議被取消，您會認為需求將會加速，您如何看待可能在未來幾個季度增加營銷費用，因為它可能與您的典型季節性有點不同？

I mean we -- I'll let Michael kind of comment on it. But I mean, we have been investing in marketing, and we continue -- we have our marketing plans. I don't think the CDC changes is something that really impacts our marketing activities, but I'll yield and see whatever else Michael wants to add to it.

我的意思是我們 - 我會讓邁克爾對此發表評論。但我的意思是，我們一直在投資營銷，而且我們會繼續——我們有我們的營銷計劃。我認為 CDC 的變化不會真正影響我們的營銷活動，但我會屈服並看看 Michael 想要添加的任何其他內容。

No, I was just going to -- I mean, I agree with Jason's comments. I mean, there's obviously a natural cadence that flows through the year, and we're kind of moving out of the summer into September in the fourth quarter. And all of our attention now switches really to '23. And just historically and normally, once we get past June and July, a lot of the consumer activity does tend to focus on their '23 vacation and what have you.

不，我只是打算——我的意思是，我同意 Jason 的評論。我的意思是，一年中顯然有一種自然的節奏，我們在第四季度從夏季進入九月。現在我們所有的注意力都轉移到了 23 年。從歷史上看，通常情況下，一旦我們過了 6 月和 7 月，許多消費者活動確實傾向於關注他們 23 年的假期以及你有什麼。

So our marketing tends to really begin to ramp up as we move into Q4 and, of course, all in preparation for wave. And we're quite optimistic with what we're seeing in bookings and the acceleration of the pace of those bookings week by week. So we're thinking that '23 is going to look pretty good.

因此，隨著我們進入第四季度，我們的營銷往往會真正開始增加，當然，這一切都是在為浪潮做準備。我們對我們在預訂中看到的情況以及這些預訂速度逐週加快感到非常樂觀。所以我們認為'23 看起來會很不錯。

Okay. We have time for one more question.

好的。我們有時間再問一個問題。

Your next question comes from the line of [Chris Stathopoulos with Susquehanna.]

您的下一個問題來自 [Chris Stathopoulos 與 Susquehanna。]

So the onboard spend, the strength on the onboard spend in your prepared remarks, you spoke about the dollar prebook and I think $0.70 on the dollar with translating to onboard. So is that -- do you feel that that's sort of part of some revenue initiatives that you had going into the prepandemic that are now starting to reengage? Or do you feel that, that sort of something has changed dynamically and this is in response to the pre -- to the pandemic? Just want to better understand how you're thinking about the sort of stickiness in the sort of the go-forward dynamic on onboard spend.

因此，機上支出，在您準備好的評論中，機上支出的強度，您談到了美元預訂，我認為美元兌美元為 0.70 美元，轉換為機上。那是不是-您是否認為這是您在大流行前採取的一些收入計劃的一部分，這些計劃現在開始重新參與？或者你是否覺得，這種事情發生了動態變化，這是對大流行前的反應？只是想更好地了解您是如何考慮機上支出向前發展動態中的粘性。

It's Michael. I think everything is the same and everything has changed. I do think that the consumer has changed in terms of how they engage with commerce. And we know from what we see with our distribution in the different channels that there's a higher propensity now to go to the web and to book on the web, et cetera.

是邁克爾。我認為一切都一樣，一切都變了。我確實認為消費者在參與商業活動方面發生了變化。而且我們從我們在不同渠道中看到的分佈情況中知道，現在訪問網絡和在網絡上預訂等的傾向更高。

And I think, certainly, the investments that we made in our technology as it relates to getting to customers about their cruise experience and the opportunities and experiences that are available to them has proven to be successful. And I think that penetration rate has grown dramatically. And I think that's connected and reflects the kind of the acceptance that the consumer has now at a much greater level to buy online. And I think that, that change is structural, and it's going to stay with us. And I believe that everything that we've done with our pre-cruise marketing is really proving to be very effective.

我認為，當然，我們對技術的投資已被證明是成功的，因為這與讓客戶了解他們的遊輪體驗以及他們可以獲得的機會和體驗有關。而且我認為滲透率已經顯著增長。我認為這是相互關聯的，反映了消費者現在對在線購買的接受程度更高。而且我認為，這種變化是結構性的，它將與我們同在。而且我相信我們在郵輪前營銷方面所做的一切都被證明是非常有效的。

Just -- I think just one thing I just want to add on to it, that we saw this prepandemic and very much kind of lead it into the investments that Michael was just talking about is that we have for decades thinking that the customer -- because the customer was focused on buying a cruise. And they have -- and we saw this when we saw the shift from goods to experiences pre-COVID is that they're really focused on buying an experience. And we had to make the investments on a technology basis to make sure that when a consumer is -- whether it's -- when they're booking their vacation or they're leading up to their vacation that we were able to put in front of them, the overall experience that they were going to have and they want to put it all together so that they can create the memories that they want to create just leveraging kind of the canvas that we provide them.

只是 - 我想我只想補充一件事，我們看到了這種流行病並在很大程度上將其引入邁克爾剛剛談到的投資中，我們幾十年來一直認為客戶 -因為客戶專注於購買遊輪。他們有——當我們看到在 COVID 之前從商品到體驗的轉變時，我們看到了這一點，他們真正專注於購買體驗。我們必須在技術基礎上進行投資，以確保當消費者——無論是——當他們預訂假期或即將到來的假期時，我們能夠提前他們，他們將擁有的整體體驗，他們想把它們放在一起，這樣他們就可以利用我們提供的畫布來創造他們想要創造的記憶。

And I think that's really what a lot of these investments and how we've been marketing to them, which is leading to more and more of the onboard pre-booking activities. But I would say that when we think about the technology that we've installed, we're still very early innings. It has opportunity to be very sophisticated, even easier to interact with. And I think that we're very bullish on what can come out of that. And yes, of course, there's money to be made in it, but it's really by focusing and enhancing on the experience, that's going to lead to a happier customer, a customer that's willing to pay more and that leads to better returns.

而且我認為這確實是這些投資的很多內容以及我們如何向他們進行營銷的方式，這導致了越來越多的機上預訂活動。但我想說的是，當我們考慮我們已經安裝的技術時，我們仍然處於早期階段。它有機會變得非常複雜，甚至更容易與之交互。我認為我們非常看好由此產生的結果。是的，當然，它可以賺錢，但真正通過關注和增強體驗，這將帶來更快樂的客戶，願意支付更多費用並帶來更好回報的客戶。

Okay. And a follow-up question. So obviously, there's a lot of concern around the potential cyclical slowdown here. And the sort of the view is that when you ask the cruise lines or the airlines for that matter that people will continue to take vacations during a recession. And for you specifically, cruising being the better value versus land-based alternatives. So just curious if you could kind of frame -- I realize The Great Recession might not be the best comp here, but what you've seen in a slowdown with respect to repeat cruisers, new-to-cruisers cruising? And then what are the levers in a slowdown that you could kind of pull? Or what's your sort of your RMS team has in its playbook into a slowing and then similar sort of idea on your unit costs?

好的。還有一個後續問題。很明顯，這裡潛在的周期性放緩引起了很多關注。一種觀點是，當你向郵輪公司或航空公司詢問這件事時，人們會在經濟衰退期間繼續休假。特別是對你來說，巡航是比陸上選擇更好的價值。所以只是好奇你能不能畫個框架——我意識到大蕭條可能不是這裡最好的組合，但你在重複巡洋艦、新巡洋艦巡航方面看到了什麼？那麼你可以拉動減速的槓桿是什麼？或者，您的 RMS 團隊在其劇本中對您的單位成本有什麼看法？

Yes. So I mean, this is obviously a very difficult question to answer because depending on which recession you're talking about, I mean, the U.S. over the past 30 years has really had episodic type of economic downturns, whether it was the unfortunate circumstances with 9/11, The Great Recession, et cetera. What we see in other markets that just have kind of modest economic downturns, we actually don't see a lot of impact on our pricing. And I think it's more focused on the value proposition gap between land-based vacation that cruising tends to do quite well because of that gap that's out there.

是的。所以我的意思是，這顯然是一個很難回答的問題，因為根據你所談論的經濟衰退，我的意思是，美國在過去 30 年中確實經歷過偶發性的經濟衰退，無論是不幸的情況9/11，大蕭條，等等。我們在其他僅出現適度經濟衰退的市場中看到的情況，實際上對我們的定價沒有太大影響。而且我認為它更關注陸地度假之間的價值主張差距，因為存在差距，巡航往往做得很好。

Now in saying that, what we do see is they will tend to look for the overall cost of their vacation. And I think leading into what we were talking about with shore product and 7-night and so forth and traveling more regionally, which is how we position our deployment. That typically leads to us coming out of that in very good shape.

現在這麼說，我們看到的是他們會傾向於尋找假期的總成本。我認為引導我們談論岸上產品和 7 晚等以及更多地區性旅行，這就是我們定位我們的部署的方式。這通常會導致我們以非常好的狀態擺脫困境。

But I think it's important to stress in my comments is we do not see any of this in the day-to-day trading of our business, the day-to-day spend that's happening on our business. And we're a nimble organization. And of course, you can't save your way to greatness, but we do think our revenue managers do think that we can continue to improve yield even in an impact on an economic standpoint -- broader economic standpoint.

但我認為在我的評論中強調重要的是，我們在我們業務的日常交易中沒有看到任何這些，在我們的業務中發生的日常支出。我們是一個靈活的組織。當然，您無法挽救自己的成功之路，但我們確實認為我們的收入經理確實認為我們可以繼續提高收益率，即使從經濟角度 - 更廣泛的經濟角度來看也是如此。

Thank you for assisting Joanne, with the call today, and thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Michael will be available for any follow-ups you may have. I wish you all a very good day.

感謝您在今天的電話中協助 Joanne，並感謝大家對公司的參與和關注。邁克爾將隨時為您提供任何後續服務。祝大家有個美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。