皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Group's Fourth Quarter Full Year 2022 and Business Update Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Michael McCarthy, Vice President of Investor Relations Mr. McCarthy, the floor is yours.

早上好。我叫 Regina，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團 2022 年第四季度全年和業務更新收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）現在我想介紹邁克爾麥卡錫，投資者關係副總裁麥卡錫先生，請發言。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 business update conference call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International.

大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業務更新電話會議。和我一起來邁阿密的是我們的首席執行官 Jason Liberty；我們的首席財務官 Naftali Holtz；皇家加勒比國際集團總裁兼首席執行官邁克爾·貝利 (Michael Bayley)。

Before we get started, I'd like to note that we're making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change.

在我們開始之前，我想指出我們在本次電話會議期間做出了前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期存在重大差異。請參閱我們今天上午發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解對這些因素的描述。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新任何前瞻性陳述。

Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our website and in our earnings release available at www.rclinvestor.com.

此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標根據定義進行調整，所有非 GAAP 項目的對賬可以在我們的網站和我們在 www.rclinvestor.com 上發布的收益中找到。

Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our fourth quarter and full year results and an update on our latest actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions.

Jason 將通過提供戰略概述和業務更新來開始通話。 Naftali 隨後將回顧我們的第四季度和全年業績，並更新我們的最新行動和當前的預訂環境。然後我們將打開您的問題的電話。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給傑森。

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Before getting started, and on behalf of the entire Royal Caribbean Group organization, 100,000 proud, I want to express how happy we are that our business has returned to normal. In fact, as you saw in the release this morning, our business is accelerating. So let me get into the detail and start off by talking about the fourth quarter and the full year 2022.

謝謝邁克爾，大家早上好。在開始之前，我謹代表整個皇家加勒比集團組織，100,000 人感到自豪，我想表達我們對我們的業務恢復正常感到多麼高興。事實上，正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們的業務正在加速發展。因此，讓我進入細節，並從談論第四季度和 2022 年全年開始。

As highlighted on Slide 6, 2022 was a challenging but successful transitional year as we returned our business to full operations and delivered memorable vacations to 6 million guests. As you can see on Slide 7, during the fourth quarter, demand for our brands accelerated. We delivered a record 1.8 million vacations, achieved a 95% load factor and successfully returned to Australia for the first time in 3 years. Pricing for our vacation experiences was higher than record 2019 levels when we operated with normalized occupancy and guest satisfaction scores were exceptional. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted loss per share were above our expectations and at the high end of our guidance.

正如幻燈片 6 中強調的那樣，2022 年是充滿挑戰但成功的過渡年，因為我們使業務恢復全面運營，並為 600 萬客人提供了難忘的假期。正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣，在第四季度，對我們品牌的需求加速增長。我們提供了創紀錄的 180 萬次假期，實現了 95% 的載客率，並在 3 年內首次成功返回澳大利亞。我們的假期體驗價格高於 2019 年創紀錄的水平，當時我們以正常入住率運營，客人滿意度得分也非常高。調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股虧損超出了我們的預期，處於我們指導的高端。

It is incredible to consider that just 1 year ago, we were in the midst of Omicron, we were still returning our ships to service, and we were sailing at load factors below 60%. Our fourth quarter results clearly demonstrate that we are back, back to usual occupancy, back to our full addressable market, back to EBITDA and cash flow profitability, back to providing full year guidance and most importantly, back to delivering a record number of incredible vacations on the most innovative fleet in the industry.

令人難以置信的是，就在 1 年前，我們還在 Omicron 中，我們仍在讓我們的船隻恢復服務，而且我們在低於 60% 的負載率下航行。我們的第四季度業績清楚地表明，我們又回到了正常入住率，回到了我們的全部目標市場，回到了 EBITDA 和現金流盈利能力，回到了提供全年指導，最重要的是，回到了創紀錄數量的令人難以置信的假期在業內最具創新性的艦隊上。

We finished 2022 on a high note and are entering 2023 with the full strength of our operating and commercial platforms. Our strong book position along with the normalization of the booking window provides the visibility needed for us to resume annual guidance, which is in line with our Trifecta program. I am incredibly thankful and proud of everyone at the Royal Caribbean Group for executing so well on our mission of delivering the best vacation experiences responsibly and building the foundation for our future growth.

我們以高調結束了 2022 年，並以我們的運營和商業平台的全部實力進入 2023 年。我們強大的預訂地位以及預訂窗口的正常化為我們提供了恢復年度指導所需的可見性，這符合我們的 Trifecta 計劃。我非常感謝並為皇家加勒比集團的每一個人感到自豪，他們出色地履行了我們負責任地提供最佳度假體驗並為我們未來發展奠定基礎的使命。

There has been a lot of talk about the state of the consumer, so I want to share what we are seeing from daily interactions with consumers who are either booking their dream vacations or who are currently sailing on one of our amazing ships. Overall, we continue to see robust demand from financially healthy, highly engaged consumers that are excited to sail on our brands. Secular tailwinds continue to benefit us as consumer preferences shift from goods to experiences. Entertainment and travel spend remains strong and the job market continues to show resilience. Consumer sentiment has improved and banks have recently reported healthy savings and continued resilience in credit card spending.

關於消費者的狀態已經有很多討論，所以我想分享我們從與正在預訂夢想假期或目前正在我們令人驚嘆的船隻之一航行的消費者的日常互動中看到的情況。總的來說，我們繼續看到來自財務健康、高度參與的消費者的強勁需求，他們很高興使用我們的品牌航行。隨著消費者偏好從商品轉向體驗，長期順風繼續使我們受益。娛樂和旅遊支出依然強勁，就業市場繼續表現出韌性。消費者信心有所改善，銀行最近公佈了健康的儲蓄和信用卡支出的持續彈性。

Our addressable market is larger than in 2019 and continues to grow. Our products appeal to a broad range of vacationers with everything from a short getaway to Perfect Day to a luxury world cruise. Cruising remains an exceptionally attractive value proposition. And as I have said in the past, it is too attractive, and we are working very hard every day to close that gap.

我們的目標市場比 2019 年更大，並且還在繼續增長。我們的產品吸引了範圍廣泛的度假者，從短暫的假期到完美的一天再到豪華的世界巡遊。巡航仍然是一個極具吸引力的價值主張。正如我過去所說，它太有吸引力了，我們每天都在非常努力地縮小差距。

Growth in cruise search has outpaced general vacation searches, resulting in double the number of visits to our websites compared to 2019. Our brands are attracting new customers into our vacation ecosystem with fourth quarter new-to-cruise and new-to-brand mix above 2019 levels. We are constantly enhancing our commercial capabilities so we can further capture quality demand. Approximately 60% of our guests book some of their onboard activities in advance of their cruise, representing double-digit growth in pre-cruise purchase penetration when compared to 2019 at significantly higher rates.

郵輪搜索的增長超過了一般度假搜索，導致我們網站的訪問量是 2019 年的兩倍。我們的品牌正在吸引新客戶進入我們的度假生態系統，第四季度郵輪新客戶和品牌新客戶組合如上2019年水平。我們不斷提升我們的商業能力，以便我們能夠進一步捕捉質量需求。大約 60% 的客人在遊輪前預訂了一些船上活動，與 2019 年相比，遊輪前購買滲透率以兩位數的速度大幅增長。

As we have said before, every dollar a guest spends before the cruise translates into about $0.70 when they sail with us and over double the overall spending when compared to other guests. Our guests are now engaging with us to book onboard activities much earlier than in 2019. So far, guests booked on 2023 sailings purchased onboard experiences an average of more than 2 months earlier than in 2019. This translates into more revenue, stickier bookings and happy guests.

正如我們之前所說，客人在遊輪前花費的每一美元在他們與我們一起航行時轉化為大約 0.70 美元，並且與其他客人相比是總支出的兩倍多。與 2019 年相比，我們的客人現在與我們一起預訂船上活動的時間要早得多。到目前為止，預訂 2023 次航次的客人在船上購買的體驗平均比 2019 年提前了 2 個多月。這轉化為更多的收入、更粘性的預訂和快樂的體驗客人。

Now I'll provide some insight into the demand environment and what can only be described as a record-breaking WAVE season. As you can see on Slide 8, bookings outpaced 2019 levels by a very wide margin throughout the fourth quarter with particularly strong trends during Cyber Weekend. We expected a strong WAVE season, but what we are currently experiencing has exceeded all expectations even when considering our capacity growth.

現在，我將對需求環境以及只能被描述為破紀錄的 WAVE 季節提供一些見解。正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣，整個第四季度的預訂量遠遠超過 2019 年的水平，網絡週末期間的趨勢尤其強勁。我們預計會有一個強勁的 WAVE 季節，但即使考慮到我們的運力增長，我們目前所經歷的也超出了所有預期。

As a result, and as highlighted on Slide 9, the seven biggest booking weeks in our company's history all occurred since our last earnings call.

因此，正如幻燈片 9 中強調的那樣，我們公司歷史上最大的七個預訂週都發生在我們上次財報電話會議之後。

Our commercial apparatus is full speed ahead, and all channels are delivering quality demand above 2019 levels. Our direct-to-consumer channels continue to perform exceptionally well as a combination of consumer preference for digital engagement and our enhanced capabilities is supporting record level bookings. We are also encouraged that our strong base of loyal travel partners continues to recover and supporting our brands with bookings above 2019 levels.

我們的商業設備全速前進，所有渠道都在提供高於2019年水平的質量需求。我們的直接面向消費者的渠道繼續表現出色，因為消費者對數字參與的偏好與我們增強的功能相結合，支持創紀錄的預訂量。我們也感到鼓舞的是，我們強大的忠實旅行合作夥伴基礎繼續恢復並支持我們的品牌，預訂量超過 2019 年水平。

As always the case, trends vary by region. We are seeing particularly strong booking trends for North American-based sailings, which account for nearly 70% of our capacity this year. From a cumulative standpoint, these itineraries are now booked at the same load factor as they were in 2019 and at higher prices. Our 2023 European sailings are booked within historical ranges at better rates with recent bookings outpacing 2019 levels. We expect almost 80% of our guests to come from North America as we continue to see particularly healthy demand from that region. Our global brand's appeal and nimble sourcing models allow us to continuously shift sourcing to the highest-yielding guests.

與往常一樣，趨勢因地區而異。我們看到北美航線的預訂趨勢特別強勁，占我們今年運力的近 70%。從累積的角度來看，這些行程現在的預訂載客率與 2019 年相同，但價格更高。我們 2023 年的歐洲航行以更優惠的價格預訂在歷史範圍內，最近的預訂超過了 2019 年的水平。我們預計近 80% 的客人來自北美，因為我們繼續看到該地區的需求特別旺盛。我們的全球品牌的吸引力和靈活的採購模式使我們能夠不斷將採購轉移到收益最高的客人。

I will now comment on our outlook for 2023. In 2023, we expect to deliver amazing vacation experiences to over 8 million guests at record yields as we deploy our best-in-class fleet across the best global itineraries. The ramp-up of our load factors in 2022, coupled with a higher and improving pricing environment, is positioning us to fully recover our yields beyond 2019 levels in the first quarter, which is another important milestone, and then ramp up further to record levels as we return to historical load factors in late spring.

我現在將評論我們對 2023 年的展望。到 2023 年，隨著我們在全球最佳航線上部署一流的機隊，我們預計將以創紀錄的收益為超過 800 萬客人提供令人驚嘆的假期體驗。 2022 年我們載客率的上升，加上更高和改善的定價環境，使我們能夠在第一季度完全恢復我們的收益率超過 2019 年的水平，這是另一個重要的里程碑，然後進一步上升到創紀錄的水平當我們回到春末的歷史負載率時。

Our strong yield growth outlook is driven by the performance of our new hardware, strong demand for our core products and continued growth from onboard revenue areas. This year, we expect to increase capacity by approximately 14% compared to 2019 with eight new ships already introduced since 2019 and three more set to be delivered this year.

我們強勁的收益增長前景是由我們新硬件的性能、對我們核心產品的強勁需求以及機載收入領域的持續增長推動的。今年，我們預計運力將比 2019 年增加約 14%，自 2019 年以來已經引進了 8 艘新船，今年還將交付 3 艘新船。

Each of our wholly-owned brands will welcome a new vessel in 2023. Silversea will welcome Silver Nova, the first of the Evolution class. Celebrity Cruises, will welcome the fourth Edge series ship, Celebrity Ascent and Royal Caribbean International will take delivery of Icon of the Seas, marking the first new ship class for the brand in 9 years, which is sure to set a new standard for vacation experiences.

我們的每個全資品牌都將在 2023 年迎來一艘新船。Silversea 將迎來 Evolution 級的第一艘 Silver Nova。 Celebrity Cruises 將迎來第四艘 Edge 系列郵輪，Celebrity Ascent 和 Royal Caribbean International 將接收 Icon of the Seas，標誌著該品牌 9 年來的首個新船級，必將樹立度假體驗的新標準.

In addition to our incredible new vessels, we plan to launch Hideaway Beach in the fourth quarter of 2023, an adult-only neighborhood, making Perfect Day at CocoCay more perfect and increasing capacity in the island to 13,000 visitors daily.

除了我們令人難以置信的新船之外，我們還計劃在 2023 年第四季度推出 Hideaway Beach，這是一個僅限成人的社區，使 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day 更加完美，並將島上的容量增加到每天 13,000 名遊客。

Our journey to deepen the relationship with the customer will continue in 2023. We will further enhance our commerce capabilities to optimize our distribution channels, build a deeper connection with guests and lower customer acquisition costs. We will also further enhance our e-commerce and precruise capabilities and focus on increasing our guest repeat rate and spend. We will continue to excel in the core and drive business excellence in order to increase yields and capture efficiencies across our platform. Our teams have been working hard for over 2 years to reshape our cost structure and abate what would have otherwise been at least a 25% increase in nonfuel cost per APCD when compared to 2019.

我們加深與客戶關係的旅程將在 2023 年繼續。我們將進一步提升我們的商業能力，以優化我們的分銷渠道，與客人建立更深層次的聯繫並降低客戶獲取成本。我們還將進一步增強我們的電子商務和郵輪前服務能力，並專注於提高我們的客人重複率和消費。我們將繼續在核心領域表現出色並推動卓越業務，以提高我們平台的收益和效率。兩年多來，我們的團隊一直在努力重塑我們的成本結構，並減少與 2019 年相比每 APCD 的非燃料成本至少增加 25% 的情況。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, is expected to grow 4.75% to 5.75% versus 2019. That's versus a 3-year benchmark that includes a period of significant global inflation. Our cost outlook for the year includes approximately 210 basis points from lingering transitional costs such as crew movement and additional structural costs such as full year operations of Perfect Day at CocoCay and our new Galveston terminal. Our teams have been committed to controlling costs and enhancing profitability while focusing on delivering the best guest experience.

與 2019 年相比，不包括燃料在內的淨郵輪成本預計將增長 4.75% 至 5.75%。這與包括一段全球顯著通脹時期的 3 年基準相比。我們今年的成本展望包括大約 210 個基點，來自揮之不去的過渡成本，例如船員調動和額外的結構成本，例如 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day 和我們新的加爾維斯頓碼頭的全年運營。我們的團隊一直致力於控製成本和提高盈利能力，同時專注於提供最佳的賓客體驗。

We continue to expect the business to accelerate and allow us to deliver record yield and adjusted EBITDA in 2023. Our proven formula for success remains unchanged: Moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost controls leads to enhanced margins, profitability and superior financial performance.

我們繼續預計業務將加速發展，並使我們能夠在 2023 年實現創紀錄的收益率和調整後的 EBITDA。我們行之有效的成功公式保持不變：適度的產能增長、適度的收益率增長和強有力的成本控制會帶來更高的利潤率、盈利能力和卓越的財務業績.

Our ESG ambitions help inform our strategic and financial decisions on a daily basis, ensuring that we always act responsibly while achieving our long-term profitability goals. In 2023, we will continue active efforts towards our target of reducing carbon intensity by double digits by 2025. We also expect to deliver on significant milestones in our decarbonization pathway, including the advanced technologies on our new ships, while also investing in retrofitting our existing fleet with a mission of reducing technology and programs. We will utilize tools to expand supplier diversity and improve our ability to build an exclusive network of suppliers. We will further focus on improving diversity, equity and inclusion and ensure our employees are physically and mentally healthy.

我們的 ESG 目標有助於每天為我們的戰略和財務決策提供信息，確保我們始終以負責任的方式行事，同時實現我們的長期盈利目標。 2023 年，我們將繼續積極努力，實現到 2025 年將碳強度降低兩位數的目標。我們還希望在脫碳過程中實現重要的里程碑，包括在我們的新船上採用先進技術，同時投資改造我們現有的艦隊的任務是減少技術和程序。我們將利用工具來擴大供應商的多樣性，並提高我們建立獨家供應商網絡的能力。我們將進一步專注於提高多樣性、公平性和包容性，並確保我們的員工身心健康。

To wrap up, 2023 sets the foundation for our Trifecta program. Our people are committed to our mission of delivering the best vacations responsibly and doing so while achieving our Trifecta goals. In 2023, we will be hard at work executing on our strategic pillars, focusing on deepening customer relationships, delivering the best hardware and destinations and excelling in the core. The future of the Royal Caribbean Group is bright. I am confident in our growth trajectory and our ability to deliver on our near-term and long-term goals as well as to reach new financial records.

總而言之，2023 年為我們的 Trifecta 計劃奠定了基礎。我們的員工致力於我們的使命，即負責任地提供最好的假期，同時實現我們的 Trifecta 目標。 2023 年，我們將努力執行我們的戰略支柱，專注於深化客戶關係，提供最好的硬件和目的地，並在核心領域表現出色。皇家加勒比集團的未來一片光明。我對我們的增長軌跡以及我們實現近期和長期目標以及創下新財務記錄的能力充滿信心。

And with that, I will turn it over to Naf. Naf?

有了這個，我會把它交給 Naf。納夫？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by discussing our results for the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，傑森，大家早上好。讓我首先討論我們第四季度的業績。

As you can see on Slide 10, we reported a net loss of $500 million or loss per share of $1.96 and adjusted net loss of approximately $300 million or per share of $1.12. The results were above our expectations at the high end of our guidance range. Total revenue was $2.6 billion, operating cash flow was $600 million and adjusted EBITDA was $409 million, again, above our expectation and guidance.

正如您在幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣，我們報告的淨虧損為 5 億美元或每股虧損 1.96 美元，調整後的淨虧損約為 3 億美元或每股虧損 1.12 美元。結果超出了我們指導範圍高端的預期。總收入為 26 億美元，經營現金流為 6 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.09 億美元，再次超出我們的預期和指導。

Fourth quarter outperformance was a result of continued strong demand for our brand vacation experiences, strong close-in bookings at higher prices and continued strength of onboard revenue. Better cost management and favorable timing of expenses across several categories, lower fuel rates, lower customer acquisition cost and lower interest expense also contributed to the financial results.

第四季度的出色表現是由於對我們品牌度假體驗的持續強勁需求、價格較高的近距離預訂以及船上收入的持續增長。更好的成本管理和多個類別的有利支出時間、更低的燃油費率、更低的客戶獲取成本和更低的利息支出也對財務業績做出了貢獻。

We finished the fourth quarter at 95% load factor with peak December holiday sailings at 110%. Load factors varied by itinerary with the Caribbean averaging 100% in both late season Europe and Australia, which opened in Q4 at just under 90%.

我們以 95% 的載客率結束了第四季度，12 月假日航行的高峰期為 110%。載客率因行程而異，加勒比海在晚季歐洲和澳大利亞的平均載客率為 100%，而澳大利亞在第四季度開業時的載客率略低於 90%。

Total revenue per passenger cruise day was up 4.5% in constant currency compared to the record fourth quarter of 2019. Net yield was down 7.4% in the fourth quarter compared to 2019, a significant improvement for the 14% decline in Q3 and above our expectation. 2022 closed out as a successful transitional year and we generated $8.8 billion of total revenue, $712 million of adjusted EBITDA and almost $500 million of operating cash flow.

與創紀錄的 2019 年第四季度相比，按固定匯率計算，每乘客遊輪日總收入增長 4.5%。與 2019 年第四季度相比，第四季度淨收益率下降 7.4%，較第三季度 14% 的降幅有了顯著改善，超出了我們的預期. 2022 年作為成功的過渡年結束，我們創造了 88 億美元的總收入、7.12 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和近 5 億美元的運營現金流。

I'll now provide an update on our 2023 business. Let's start with capacity. Our overall capacity for 2023 will be about 14% higher than 2019. Nearly 70% of our '23 capacity will sail on North America-based itineraries, about 17% will be in Europe and close to 10% will be in the APAC region. The remaining capacity will operate in a number of other regions, including South America and Antarctica.

我現在將提供我們 2023 年業務的最新情況。讓我們從容量開始。我們 2023 年的總運力將比 2019 年高出約 14%。我們 23 年近 70% 的運力將在北美航線上航行，約 17% 將在歐洲，近 10% 將在亞太地區。剩餘的產能將在其他一些地區運營，包括南美洲和南極洲。

From a cumulative standpoint, our book load factor remains well within historical ranges and we have meaningfully narrowed the gap to 2019 levels. Overall, our North America-based itineraries, many of which visit the amazing Perfect Day at CocoCay, are booked in line with 2019 for the full year and are ahead for Q2 forward at better rates. Sailings in Europe are booked within historical ranges and are catching up. We have seen improved booking trends for these itineraries so far in WAVE, particularly from the U.S. and the U.K. We expect the improvement to continue, supported by our global sourcing model.

從累積的角度來看，我們的圖書載入率仍處於歷史範圍內，並且我們已將差距顯著縮小至 2019 年的水平。總的來說，我們的北美行程（其中許多是參觀 CocoCay 令人驚嘆的 Perfect Day）的預訂與 2019 年全年一致，並且以更優惠的價格提前到第二季度。歐洲的航行預訂量處於歷史範圍內，並且正在迎頭趕上。到目前為止，我們已經在 WAVE 中看到這些行程的預訂趨勢有所改善，尤其是來自美國和英國的預訂趨勢。我們預計，在我們的全球採購模式的支持下，這種改善將繼續下去。

Constant currency net yields are expected to be higher than 2019 in all four quarters with more growth for Q2 through Q4, when load factors returned to normal. The return to yield growth in the first quarter marks a significant point in our recovery and highlights the resilience of our company, the strength of our brands and the consumers' desire to spend on our amazing vacation experiences.

預計所有四個季度的固定貨幣淨收益率都將高於 2019 年，當載客率恢復正常時，第二至第四季度的增長將更快。第一季度收益率恢復增長標誌著我們復甦的一個重要時刻，並凸顯了我們公司的韌性、我們品牌的實力以及消費者對我們美妙假期體驗的消費意願。

As of December 31, our customer deposit balance was $4.2 billion, which is about $400 million higher than our balance at the end of the fourth quarter in 2019.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的客戶存款餘額為 42 億美元，比我們 2019 年第四季度末的餘額高出約 4 億美元。

Shifting to costs. Our teams continue to demonstrate the ability to manage cost pressures while staying focused on our mission of delivering incredible vacation experiences to our guests. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD increased 3.9% as reported and 4.7% in constant currency compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Net cruise costs for the fourth quarter included $1.23 per APCD or 100 basis point impact of transitory costs related to our health protocols and lagging costs relating to fleet ramp-up and crew movements. We expect these transitory costs to substantially dissipate as the majority of our crew has returned and protocols have eased.

轉向成本。我們的團隊繼續展示管理成本壓力的能力，同時繼續專注於我們為客人提供令人難以置信的假期體驗的使命。與 2019 年第四季度相比，不包括每 APCD 燃料的淨郵輪成本增加了 3.9%，按固定匯率計算增加了 4.7%。第四季度的淨郵輪成本包括每 APCD 1.23 美元或與我們健康相關的暫時性成本的 100 個基點影響與船隊升級和船員調動相關的協議和滯後成本。我們預計，隨著我們的大多數船員已經返回並且協議已經放寬，這些暫時性成本將大大消散。

Our teams have been working constantly for over 2 years on reshaping our cost structure through operational and distribution efficiencies and leveraging group scale. We continue to see the benefits further materialize in 2023 to partially mitigate continued inflationary pressures.

兩年多來，我們的團隊一直致力於通過運營和分銷效率以及利用集團規模來重塑我們的成本結構。我們繼續看到收益在 2023 年進一步實現，以部分緩解持續的通脹壓力。

Regarding fuel. Fuel rates are coming off the highs of last year. We continue to improve consumption and have partially hedged the rate, which is helping us mitigate the volatility and cost of fuel expense. As of today, fuel consumption is 55% hedged for '23 and 10% for 2024.

關於燃料。燃油費率正在從去年的高位回落。我們繼續改善消費並部分對沖利率，這有助於我們減輕燃料費用的波動性和成本。截至今天，23 年和 2024 年的油耗分別為 55% 和 10%。

As highlighted on Slide 11, we are resuming annual guidance for the first time in 3 years as we have more visibility into our book of business and the year ahead. We expect net yield growth of 2.5% to 4.5% for the full year. The underlying yield improvement is driven by the performance of new hardware, strong demand for our core products, continued growth from onboard revenue areas, and it also accounts for lower expected load factors versus 2019 levels. We expect yields to ramp up as we will return to historical load factors in late spring such that we achieved record yields and revenue throughout the year.

正如幻燈片 11 中強調的那樣，我們將在 3 年內首次恢復年度指導，因為我們對我們的業務和未來一年有了更多的了解。我們預計全年淨收益率增長 2.5% 至 4.5%。新硬件的性能、對我們核心產品的強勁需求、機上收入領域的持續增長以及與 2019 年水平相比較低的預期載客率推動了潛在收益的提高。我們預計收益率將上升，因為我們將在春末恢復到歷史載客率，從而使我們全年實現創紀錄的收益率和收入。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up 4.75% to 5.75% for the full year as compared to 2019. Our cost outlook reflects our culture of continuous improvement and innovation. Now let's remember that we are comparing cost figures to a 3-year-old benchmark, including a period of high global inflation. We expect that NCCx also includes 210 basis points of lagging transitory and structural costs.

與 2019 年相比，全年的淨郵輪成本（不包括燃料）預計將增長 4.75% 至 5.75%。我們的成本前景反映了我們持續改進和創新的文化。現在讓我們記住，我們正在將成本數據與 3 年前的基准進行比較，包括一段全球高通脹時期。我們預計 NCCx 還包括 210 個基點的滯後暫時性和結構性成本。

Inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions continue to put pressure on costs across many categories, including food and beverage, airfare and shoreside human capital. Our teams continue to find creative ways to manage through inflation and increase profitability.

通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷繼續給許多類別的成本帶來壓力，包括食品和飲料、機票和岸上人力資本。我們的團隊繼續尋找創造性的方法來應對通貨膨脹並提高盈利能力。

Lastly, costs in the first half of the year are also burdened by more dry dock days during the second half of the year. Fuel expense is expected to be approximately $1.1 billion for the year, and we are 55% hedged at below market rates. Based on current fuel pricing, currency exchange rates and interest rates, we expect record adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share of $3 to $3.60.

最後，上半年的成本也受到下半年更多幹船塢天數的影響。今年的燃料費用預計約為 11 億美元，我們以低於市場利率的價格進行了 55% 的對沖。根據當前的燃料價格、貨幣匯率和利率，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益將達到創紀錄的 3 美元至 3.60 美元。

Now turning to Slide 12, I'll provide some color on first quarter capacity and guidance. We plan to operate about 11.2 million APCDs during the first quarter with load factors at 100%. Let me break down first quarter capacity expectations a little more.

現在轉到幻燈片 12，我將提供有關第一季度產能和指導的一些顏色。我們計劃在第一季度以 100% 的負載率運營約 1120 萬台 APCD。讓我再細分一下第一季度的產能預期。

During the quarter, approximately 80% of our capacity will operate from North America, mostly sailing to the Caribbean. This is higher than in the first quarter of 2019, particularly for short Caribbean sailings, and we have added more capacity in the region to capitalize on the incredible Perfect Day at CocoCay which was not yet opened 3 years ago. 10% of our capacity is in Australia, close to 5% is in Asia and the remainder spread across multiple other itineraries.

在本季度，我們大約 80% 的運力將在北美運營，主要駛往加勒比海地區。這高於 2019 年第一季度，特別是對於加勒比海短途航行而言，我們在該地區增加了更多運力，以利用 3 年前尚未開放的 CocoCay 令人難以置信的 Perfect Day。我們 10% 的運力在澳大利亞，接近 5% 在亞洲，其餘分佈在其他多個行程中。

Based on current currency exchange rates, fuel rates and interest rates, we expect adjusted loss per share of $0.65 to $0.85. Net yields are expected to be up 1% to 2% versus 2019 in constant currency. We are excited to finally recover our yields to record 2019 levels and continue to work hard at further growing our yields and revenues as occupancy level normalizes.

根據當前的貨幣匯率、燃油費率和利率，我們預計調整後的每股虧損為 0.65 美元至 0.85 美元。按固定匯率計算，與 2019 年相比，淨收益率預計將上升 1% 至 2%。我們很高興最終將我們的收益率恢復到創紀錄的 2019 年水平，並隨著入住率恢復正常而繼續努力進一步提高我們的收益率和收入。

On the cost side, overall, we expect our net cruise costs, excluding fuel, to be up approximately 8.5% compared to '19. Similar to the full year guidance, the first quarter carries 320 basis points of transitory costs, structural costs and timing of expenses that are weighing on NCCx when compared to the first quarter of 2019.

在成本方面，總體而言，我們預計我們的淨郵輪成本（不包括燃料）將比 19 年增長約 8.5%。與全年指導類似，與 2019 年第一季度相比，第一季度的暫時性成本、結構性成本和支出時間安排增加了 320 個基點，這對 NCCx 造成了壓力。

Shifting to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in liquidity. Our liquidity remains strong, and we are focused on expanding our margins to further enhance EBITDA and free cash flow. Our ultimate goal is to return the balance sheet to an investment-grade profile.

轉移到我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度結束時擁有 29 億美元的流動資金。我們的流動性依然強勁，我們專注於擴大利潤率以進一步提高 EBITDA 和自由現金流。我們的最終目標是將資產負債表恢復到投資級別。

During the fourth quarter, we repaid $600 million of debt maturities and closed on the refinancing of $2 billion of secured and guaranteed debt previously due June 2023. Additionally, in January, we successfully extended $2.3 billion of our existing revolver credit facility commitment to April 2025. Our access to capital remains strong, and our execution and performance will resonate with our investors and financial partners. We will proactively and methodically continue to manage near-term maturities and improve the balance sheet.

在第四季度，我們償還了 6 億美元的到期債務，並完成了 2023 年 6 月到期的 20 億美元有擔保和擔保債務的再融資。此外，在 1 月份，我們成功地將 23 億美元的現有循環信貸額度承諾延長至 2025 年 4 月. 我們獲得資本的途徑仍然很強大，我們的執行力和業績將引起我們的投資者和金融合作夥伴的共鳴。我們將積極有條不紊地繼續管理近期到期的債券並改善資產負債表。

For 2023, our scheduled debt maturities are $2.1 billion, made up of predominantly ECA debt amortization, which we expect to pay down with cash on hand and cash flow generated from operations. Our business continues to accelerate, and we expect to grow yields and control costs, such as we achieved record yields and adjusted EBITDA in 2023 as we regained the tremendous profitability of our business. Our strong book position and enhanced commercial capabilities provide further visibility into 2023 and remain committed and focused on executing our strategy and delivering our mission while achieving the Trifecta goals.

到 2023 年，我們預定的債務到期日為 21 億美元，主要由 ECA 債務攤銷組成，我們預計將用手頭現金和運營產生的現金流來償還。我們的業務繼續加速發展，我們希望提高收益率並控製成本，例如我們在 2023 年實現了創紀錄的收益率和調整後的 EBITDA，因為我們重新獲得了巨大的業務盈利能力。我們強大的賬簿地位和增強的商業能力提供了對 2023 年的進一步了解，並繼續致力於並專注於執行我們的戰略和履行我們的使命，同時實現 Trifecta 目標。

With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for a Q&A session.

有了這個，我會要求我們的接線員打開問答環節的電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

And very solid results here. So look, when -- you're back to guiding the way you, you used to guide before COVID, which should tell us that your visibility is as good as it's probably ever been or I should say, back to normal. So my question is like historically, you've turned the year, let's call it, 55% to 60% booked. And I first want to understand maybe kind of where you stand right now in terms of that book position versus historical levels.

這裡的結果非常可靠。所以看，當 - 你回到指導你的方式，你曾經在 COVID 之前指導，這應該告訴我們你的能見度和以前一樣好，或者我應該說，恢復正常。所以我的問題是，從歷史上看，你已經過了一年，我們稱之為 55% 到 60% 的預訂。我首先想了解您現在在該書位置與歷史水平方面的立場。

And then it does seem based on your current strong visibility that if your customer base stays pretty much status quo. It would seem to us that your EBITDA for this year would not just exceed 2019 levels, but I mean, pretty well exceed 2019 levels. I just want to understand if that's fair. And your guidance maybe incorporates some conservatism around maybe consumer trends.

然後，根據您當前的強大可見性，如果您的客戶群幾乎保持現狀，似乎確實如此。在我們看來，您今年的 EBITDA 不僅會超過 2019 年的水平，而且我的意思是，遠遠超過 2019 年的水平。我只是想了解這是否公平。您的指導可能包含一些圍繞消費趨勢的保守主義。

Steve, thank you for your questions. I would first start off and say that on a book position standpoint, we're now an eyelash away from our historical load factors or book position. But we also expect our load factors as we guided to be a little bit lower until we get into the spring, and that's why on the Q1, our load factor. So when you adjust for our expectations on load factors, we're in a very strong book position and at rates that are considerably higher than what we saw in 2019.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的問題。我首先要說的是，從賬面位置的角度來看，我們現在距離歷史負載因子或賬面位置僅一步之遙。但我們也希望我們的負載係數在進入春季之前會有所降低，這就是為什麼在第一季度，我們的負載係數。因此，當您根據我們對載客率的預期進行調整時，我們的賬面狀況非常強勁，而且利率遠高於我們在 2019 年看到的水平。

I think your teams have put together a forecast that we believe is achievable, and it is based off of what we believe is very strong visibility on the revenue side as well as our ability to manage our cost structure. We do expect to exceed handsomely our EBITDA that we generated in 2019. And clearly, we see patterns continuing to accelerate in the way that they are, there's certainly opportunity for us to have a better outcome for the year.

我認為您的團隊已經做出了我們認為可以實現的預測，並且它基於我們認為在收入方面非常強大的可見性以及我們管理成本結構的能力。我們確實希望超過我們在 2019 年產生的 EBITDA。顯然，我們看到模式繼續以現在的方式加速，我們當然有機會在今年取得更好的成果。

But I think we're thoughtful in just how we've always been. We're very thoughtful on how we guide. We're thoughtful on how we're seeing these different products and markets operate. And so, we feel really strongly about 2023. And quite frankly, we feel very strongly when we consider the acceleration towards Trifecta.

但我認為我們一直在思考我們一直以來的樣子。我們對我們的指導方式非常周到。我們對如何看待這些不同的產品和市場運作進行了深思熟慮。因此，我們對 2023 年的感覺非常強烈。坦率地說，當我們考慮加速實現 Trifecta 時，我們的感覺非常強烈。

Okay. Got you. And then second question would be around the transitory costs. And I would assume that most of these costs are kind of hitting your -- the other operating and SG&A lines. But look, I would assume by the time we get to the third quarter, maybe fourth quarter, the majority of those headwinds should be gone. And by the time we get to '24, all those costs should be gone. I just want to make sure that I'm kind of thinking about that the right way.

好的。明白了然後第二個問題是關於暫時性成本。我認為這些成本中的大部分都會影響到你的——其他運營和 SG&A 線。但是，我想當我們進入第三季度，也許是第四季度時，大部分逆風應該都會消失。到 24 歲時，所有這些成本都應該消失了。我只是想確保我正在以正確的方式思考這個問題。

Steve, yes, that's exactly right. And you can see that we made progress every quarter, and we expect that to dissipate as we progress throughout the year.

史蒂夫，是的，完全正確。你可以看到我們每個季度都取得了進展，我們希望隨著我們全年的進步而消散。

Yes. And I just want to add because I know it was in our remarks, but we're a little bit of a different organization than we were in 2019. We have a full year of Perfect Day now. We have things like Galveston. We've also shed some businesses like Azamara as an example.

是的。我只想補充一點，因為我知道這是我們的言論，但我們的組織與 2019 年有所不同。我們現在有一整年的完美日。我們有像加爾維斯頓這樣的地方。我們還剝離了一些業務，例如 Azamara。

And so, I think when you step back and you see that our costs are basically up, mid-single digits versus 2019, and 210 basis points of that are the structural and some transitory, you kind of get into like a 3% or so cost increase versus '19. What it shows is that what we were saying during the pandemic about us getting into our wedding weight has really helped us absorb a very high inflationary environment that we've all experienced during 2019, and that is really the result of incredible effort by our brands and our shared service areas who really put the time and the work in while not impacting the guest experience.

因此，我認為當你退後一步，你會發現我們的成本基本上上升了，與 2019 年相比，中等個位數，其中 210 個基點是結構性的和一些暫時性的，你有點像 3% 左右與'19相比成本增加。它表明，我們在大流行期間所說的關於我們進入婚禮體重的說法確實幫助我們吸收了我們在 2019 年都經歷過的非常高的通貨膨脹環境，這確實是我們品牌付出巨大努力的結果以及我們的共享服務區，他們在不影響客人體驗的情況下真正投入時間和工作。

Appreciate it. Congratulations.

欣賞它。恭喜。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Just wanted to get a little bit more of a split in your yield guidance between the occupancy and the revenue per day piece of it because thinking about the occupancy issues sort of going to cure itself, and I guess, we would think about that price increase as something that would carry forward into 2020, unless do you think that some of that pricing -- that there's a trade-off to get back to full occupancy. So just trying to think about how much of the yield increase that you're guiding to, really when the occupancies back implies a price -- a greater yield increase for going forward.

只是想在入住率和每天收入之間獲得更多的收益指導，因為考慮到入住率問題會自行解決，我想，我們會考慮價格上漲作為將延續到 2020 年的東西，除非你認為其中的一些定價——需要權衡才能恢復到滿員率。因此，只要想一想你指導的收益率增長有多少，實際上是當入住率回升意味著價格時——未來的收益率增長會更大。

Yes. So Robin, so first, for the full year, obviously, many moving pieces as we are again comparing a 3-year benchmark. And as Jason said, just a minute ago, we were obviously different. So we existed some ships, some brands. We added Galveston. We have direct contribution now from Perfect Day at CocoCay. All of it is slightly negative to yield, but overall, obviously, very, very important to us.

是的。所以羅賓，首先，對於全年，顯然，我們再次比較 3 年基準時，有許多移動的部分。正如傑森所說，就在一分鐘前，我們顯然不同。所以我們有一些船，一些品牌。我們添加了加爾維斯頓。我們現在有來自 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day 的直接貢獻。所有這些都對收益率略有負面影響，但總體而言，顯然對我們非常非常重要。

The majority of the benefit that you see on the yield side is from new hardware. We also put that hardware on the best itineraries. They have more onboard revenue opportunities. And the rest is like-for-like, that is up despite the fact that, as you mentioned, the load factors are much lower than what we had in '19.

您在收益方面看到的大部分收益來自新硬件。我們還將該硬件放在最佳行程中。他們有更多的船上收入機會。其餘的是一樣的，儘管正如你提到的那樣，負載率比我們在 19 年的水平低得多，但它還是上升了。

For Q1, if we adjust for the load factor, the difference -- yield would have been around mid-single digits. So it's obviously more impact for Q1.

對於第一季度，如果我們調整負載係數，差異——收益率將在中等個位數左右。所以這顯然對第一季度的影響更大。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just sort of follow-up to that is one of your Trifecta goals is that sort of EBITDA per berth that you might give sort of a range for '23? Just thinking about, obviously, the -- a lot of the EBITDA versus '19 would clearly be above given the 14% capacity growth. So if we just think about the cash ability per berth basis, just kind of wondering how recovered you may be in '23 versus '19?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是跟進是你的 Trifecta 目標之一，就是你可能會為 '23 提供某種範圍的每個泊位的 EBITDA？很明顯，考慮到 14% 的運力增長，EBITDA 與 19 年相比顯然會更高。因此，如果我們只考慮每個泊位的現金能力，只是想知道你在 23 年和 19 年的恢復情況如何？

Yes. And so, Robin, just -- we've -- obviously, we moved now to start to guide back to what we were doing in 2019 to make sure we create comparability. We clearly believe that our EBITDA is going to be up and our EBITDA per berth is on its way getting back to those record levels, which is really just being impacted by fuel prices. But that's really where we're very focused because we believe one of our paths to getting to ROIC and the teams is obviously focusing on improving our margins across all of our brands. And so, that's how we've guided for 2023 and the focus is very heavy on -- internally on us improving those margins.

是的。因此，羅賓，我們已經 - 顯然，我們現在開始重新回顧我們在 2019 年所做的事情，以確保我們創造可比性。我們清楚地相信我們的 EBITDA 將會上升，我們每個泊位的 EBITDA 正在回到那些創紀錄的水平，這實際上只是受到燃料價格的影響。但這確實是我們非常關注的地方，因為我們相信我們獲得 ROIC 的途徑之一和團隊顯然專注於提高我們所有品牌的利潤率。因此，這就是我們對 2023 年的指導方式，重點非常放在——在內部我們提高這些利潤率上。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

你的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

Helpful commentary there with the onboard bookings in advance and especially strong results during 4Q despite you continuing to close that occupancy gap versus 2019. So curious how you're thinking about that on board for passenger cruise day throughout the course of this year as you fill out the interior shift, I imagine there's maybe a little bit of a mix headwind there. But can these onboard levels remain elevated? And secondarily to that, the ticket component, how would you expect that to evolve through the course of this year?

儘管您繼續縮小與 2019 年的入住率差距，但提前進行船上預訂的有用評論尤其是第四季度的強勁結果。很好奇您在今年整個過程中如何考慮乘客郵輪日的船上預訂在內部轉變中，我想那裡可能有一點混合逆風。但這些機載水平能否保持較高水平？其次，門票部分，您預計它在今年的過程中會如何發展？

Vince, this is Michael. If you remember, when we first started coming out of the pandemic, and we saw this really strong robust onboard spend, we wondered how long it would last for. And we had different theories about that. It's just continued to strengthen. And I think all of the investments we made during the pandemic with Hybris and our precruise software and our capabilities with the web, really has changed this needle. And we just continue to see incredible strength with the onboard spend and the number continues to improve.

文斯，這是邁克爾。如果你還記得，當我們剛開始走出大流行病時，我們看到了這種非常強勁的船上支出，我們想知道它會持續多久。我們對此有不同的理論。它只是繼續加強。而且我認為我們在大流行期間對 Hybris 和我們的 precruise 軟件以及我們在網絡方面的能力所做的所有投資，確實改變了這一點。而且我們繼續看到機上支出的驚人增長，而且這個數字還在繼續增加。

So the precruise penetration is now above 60%. We've now got 25% of activity occurring on our app, which is something new over the past couple of months. We've made multiple changes to the software and our capabilities to communicate with the customer precruise and on cruise and the response has been extremely positive. So we see a great deal of strength. We're very pleased with the performance, and we think it's going to continue all the way through this year and into '24.

因此，precruise 滲透率現在超過 60%。我們現在有 25% 的活動發生在我們的應用程序上，這是過去幾個月的新情況。我們對軟件和我們在巡航前和巡航中與客戶溝通的能力進行了多項更改，反應非常積極。所以我們看到了很大的力量。我們對錶現非常滿意，我們認為它會一直持續到今年並進入 24 年。

Yes. I just want to just add on a few things. Obviously, as we add more third and fourths, that can weigh a little bit on the average APD on the onboard side. But I think what's important to point out is that the strength in onboard and the spending, as Michael mentioned, one is obviously the consumer or our addressable consumer is healthy, is sitting on a lot of savings, is searching for experiences and creating memories with their friends and family. But our ability to get the consumer to book earlier is really the main force behind why we're seeing an increase in onboard activity.

是的。我只想補充幾件事。顯然，隨著我們添加更多的三分之一和四分之一，這可能會對機載側的平均 APD 產生一點影響。但我認為需要指出的重要一點是，正如邁克爾所提到的，船上和支出方面的優勢，顯然是消費者或我們的可尋址消費者是健康的，有大量儲蓄，正在尋找體驗並創造回憶他們的朋友和家人。但我們讓消費者提前預訂的能力確實是我們看到船上活動增加的主要推動力。

So a healthy consumer certainly helps. Their desires and interests certainly help. But also allowing them to effectively get at least a day back of their vacation by being -- allowing them to plan what they want to do on the ship as well as shore excursions is certainly creating a great tailwind for us.

因此，健康的消費者肯定會有所幫助。他們的願望和興趣當然有幫助。但也讓他們能夠有效地享受至少一天的假期——讓他們計劃他們想在船上做什麼以及岸上游覽，這無疑為我們創造了一個巨大的順風。

And on the ticket side, we expect our ticket yields to continue and APDs to increase. There's a little bit of always that how we package and how we do things can lead a little bit more into ticket or a little bit more on to onboard depending on how it is with the brand.

在票務方面，我們預計我們的票務收益率將繼續，APD 將增加。總是有一點點，我們如何包裝和我們如何做事可以導致更多的門票或更多的入場，這取決於它與品牌的關係。

And also one of the -- I think the other drivers on the ticket and onboard side is just whether it's through e-commerce and other things. We're taking more and more friction out of the acquisition experience or how the customer shops. And that's also allowing them to get the vacation of choice that they're looking for and on the platform or the channel of choice that they choose to go through.

還有一個 - 我認為票務和船上的其他司機只是通過電子商務和其他方式。我們正在消除購置體驗或客戶購物方式中越來越多的摩擦。這也讓他們能夠在他們選擇的平台或選擇的渠道上獲得他們正在尋找的選擇假期。

That's helpful. And maybe taking a step back, a bigger picture question. If you look at the order book for industry supply growth, looks like kind of this 4% to 5% range in '23 and '24, but then falls off in '25 and '26. So can you remind us the time line around new ship builds? Is that decel in '25 into '26 pretty set? And your take on what decelerating industry supply growth might mean for the broader pricing picture.

這很有幫助。也許退後一步，一個更大的問題。如果你看一下行業供應增長的訂單，看起來在 23 年和 24 年有 4% 到 5% 的範圍，但隨後在 25 年和 26 年下降。那麼你能提醒我們新船建造的時間表嗎？ 25 年到 26 年的減速是否很合適？以及您對行業供應增長放緩可能對更廣泛的定價前景意味著什麼的看法。

Well, it's -- I certainly don't know the plans of our competitors on a new building standpoint. As we had kind of noted in our release, how we expect our business to grow next year by about 10%, then about 5% and then about 6%, respectively. And I think the first thing to point out is that's not just one brand in one market in one destination. So this really reflects our three wholly owned brands and how they're going to grow in their different segments and also for these ships to be in different parts of the world.

好吧，這是——我當然不知道我們的競爭對手在新建築方面的計劃。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的那樣，我們預計明年我們的業務將分別增長約 10%、約 5% 和約 6%。我認為首先要指出的是，這不僅僅是一個品牌在一個目的地的一個市場。因此，這確實反映了我們的三個全資品牌，以及它們將如何在不同的細分市場中發展，以及這些船舶在世界不同地區的發展情況。

If you look at the order book, you do see, as you get into '27 and '28, a lighter order book. We believe that Royal Caribbean that the addressable market is underpenetrated, especially in all the different markets that we operate. We are -- we work very hard to create global brands that attract guests from all over the world, and of course, to build the revenue management systems to effectively harvest that quality demand. And we think that apparatus more than supports our expected supply growth over the coming years.

如果你查看訂單簿，你會看到，當你進入 27 年和 28 年時，訂單簿會變得更輕。我們認為，皇家加勒比地區的可尋址市場尚未充分滲透，尤其是在我們經營的所有不同市場中。我們 - 我們非常努力地創造全球品牌，吸引來自世界各地的客人，當然，建立收入管理系統以有效地收穫質量需求。我們認為該設備不僅支持我們未來幾年預期的供應增長。

Vince, it's Michael. I just have to add one little comment here talking about new ships coming online. Obviously, we opened up to sail Icon of the Seas a few months ago, and that ship literally has been the best-selling product in the history of our business and has been absolutely outstanding in terms of the demand and the pricing that we're generating for the product. And in fact, it's really driving a great '24. I mean we don't -- we never talk about '24 at the beginning of '23, obviously, but '24 is looking very healthy. And a big driver of that is Icon. We've had some remarkable stats coming out of Icon.

文斯，是邁克爾。我只需要在這裡添加一點關於新船上線的評論。顯然，幾個月前我們開始航行 Icon of the Seas，那艘船確實是我們業務歷史上最暢銷的產品，並且在需求和定價方面都非常出色為產品生成。事實上，它真的推動了一個偉大的 24 年。我的意思是我們不——我們從不在 23 年開始時談論 24 年，顯然，但 24 年看起來非常健康。 Icon 是其中的一個重要推動力。我們從 Icon 中獲得了一些非凡的統計數據。

Just one little nugget that gets me very excited is it's only one category of room, but the ultimate family townhouse that we sell on Icon, which is a 3-story experience in our new (inaudible) venue for younger families is already 55% sold for 2024 at an average price of $75,000 a week. So you can just get a feel of the kind of demand that's being generated by these new products. And obviously, we're very excited with what we're seeing with icon and that new class, which Jason mentioned is the first time Royal Caribbean International has had a new class of ship in 9 years, and we are delighted with the performance so far.

讓我非常興奮的一個小金塊是它只有一類房間，但我們在 Icon 上出售的終極家庭聯排別墅，這是我們為年輕家庭提供的新（聽不清）場地的 3 層體驗，已經售出 55% 2024 年的平均價格為每週 75,000 美元。因此，您可以感受到這些新產品正在產生的需求類型。顯然，我們對我們看到的 icon 和新級別感到非常興奮，Jason 提到這是皇家加勒比國際 9 年來第一次擁有新級別的船舶，我們對性能感到滿意所以遠的。

We'll save you a cabin, Vince, don't worry.

我們會為你留一間小屋，文斯，別擔心。

Going to start saving for that. Appreciate the color.

打算為此存錢。欣賞顏色。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

First off, congratulations on this really important milestone. So my first question is on WAVE season by all accounts in your account this morning, WAVE season is going really well. Volumes seem to be pretty consistent week-over-week, month-over-month. Jason, or anyone, if you could just expand a little bit more on the behavior you're seeing within the bookings? Any differentiation between brands or any pricing sensitivity sort of forming at either at the lower end, which are lower -- with your older fleet ships or at the higher-end suites and things that were pricing much better last going into this year?

首先，祝賀這個非常重要的里程碑。所以我的第一個問題是今天早上您帳戶中所有帳戶的 WAVE 季節，WAVE 季節進展順利。每週、每月的交易量似乎都非常穩定。 Jason 或任何人，是否可以進一步擴展您在預訂中看到的行為？品牌之間的任何差異或任何價格敏感度在低端形成，哪些較低 - 與您的舊船隊船舶或高端套房以及今年最後定價更好的東西？

Thanks, Brandt. First, I mean -- and it's -- I don't say this lightly, so it's wonderful to say, but we're really seeing these very strong WAVE trends across all of our brands. And you see an elevated amount of demand coming from North America. And we have been very happy to see over the past 2 or 3 weeks, that elevated demand now move into Europe as well.

謝謝，勃蘭特。首先，我的意思是——我不是輕描淡寫地這麼說，所以說起來很好，但我們確實在我們所有品牌中看到了這些非常強勁的 WAVE 趨勢。你會看到來自北美的需求量增加。我們非常高興地看到，在過去的 2 或 3 週內，增加的需求現在也轉移到了歐洲。

We have been very happily surprised by how strong we're seeing the consumer plan their vacation travel and to see that our booking window is now within a couple of weeks of what it has normally been. And that includes a lot of acceleration for short close-in products, especially as we've increased more of our 3, 4 and 5 night products is really encouraging overall.

我們非常高興地看到消費者計劃他們的假期旅行的強烈程度，並且我們的預訂窗口現在比通常情況下的幾週內。這包括短期近距離產品的大量加速，尤其是當我們增加了更多的 3、4 和 5 晚產品時，總體上確實令人鼓舞。

So I wish I could say it's different. Well, actually, I don't wish I could say -- I should say that it's different from the family to ultra-luxury or to expedition. But we're really seeing this across all of our brands really strong. And we've seen markets like, for example, like Northern Europe now begin to move into a much stronger place.

所以我希望我能說這是不同的。好吧，實際上，我不希望我能說——我應該說從家庭到超豪華或遠征是不同的。但我們真的看到我們所有品牌都非常強大。我們已經看到像北歐這樣的市場現在開始變得更加強大。

I also just add is demand, as you probably have seen in other travel products for North Americans to go to Europe has been exceptionally strong. And so, we're now seeing that you take over here in the cruise space.

我還要補充的是需求，正如您可能已經在其他旅遊產品中看到的那樣，北美人前往歐洲的需求異常強勁。因此，我們現在看到您接管了郵輪空間。

And just to clarify -- go ahead, Michael.

只是為了澄清——繼續，邁克爾。

Sorry. Sorry, just to add one comment on the demand from North America. We've also seen strong demand coming out of the Latin American markets for the European product, which has surprised us, but obviously, we're taking advantage of that. But it's pretty much across the board that we're seeing the strength in the consumer and it's across so many of our markets, which is really healthy to see.

對不起。抱歉，只想對北美的需求添加一條評論。我們還看到拉丁美洲市場對歐洲產品的強勁需求，這讓我們感到驚訝，但顯然，我們正在利用這一點。但我們幾乎全面地看到了消費者的力量，而且它遍及我們的許多市場，這真的很健康。

That's great. And just a follow-up on both of those comments. It sounds like U.S. into Europe and the U.K. that you called out are where you're most excited, even if it's the Europe end market. In terms of the consumer that you sell to and that European consumer that you sell to that might not be as good as a consumer right now for you, are they accelerating to sort of against their own comparables?

那太棒了。只是對這兩條評論的跟進。聽起來美國進入歐洲和英國是你最興奮的地方，即使它是歐洲終端市場。就您銷售給的消費者和您銷售給的那個歐洲消費者而言，現在對您來說可能不如消費者，他們是否正在加速與自己的可比產品進行比較？

Yes, they are. And I think the other thing that has been -- that we've seen through the course of this WAVE is our ability to raise prices at the same time. So the demand is that strong and we're able to raise price across these different products and really not seeing a pullback from the consumer as we continue to do so. And that is really a reflection of what we've seen since our last earnings call, or really since the announcement of the protocol being dropped just acceleration and the propensity to cruise across all three categories of new-to-cruise, first-to-brand, first-to-cruise has returned. And in many cases, it's better than what we saw pre-COVID.

是的，他們是。我認為另一件事——我們在這一波浪潮中看到的是我們同時提高價格的能力。因此需求如此強勁，我們能夠提高這些不同產品的價格，並且在我們繼續這樣做的過程中真的沒有看到消費者的退縮。這確實反映了我們自上次財報電話會議以來所看到的情況，或者實際上是自宣布協議被取消以來所看到的，只是加速和在所有三個類別的新巡航、首次巡航-品牌，first-to-cruise 已經回歸。在許多情況下，它比我們在 COVID 之前看到的要好。

Congrats again.

再次恭喜。

Your next question comes from the line of Benjamin Chaiken with Credit Suite.

您的下一個問題來自 Credit Suite 的 Benjamin Chaiken。

Maybe I missed it, but the guide implies some net yield growth for the year, clearly. Is this simply occupancy improving? Or is the revenue per passenger cruise day also expected to improve? And I guess I asked that in the context of what sounds like better pricing in the last few weeks and months.

也許我錯過了，但該指南顯然暗示了今年的一些淨收益率增長。這僅僅是入住率的提高嗎？還是每乘客遊輪日的收入也有望提高？我想我是在過去幾周和幾個月聽起來價格更好的背景下問這個問題的。

Ben, it's Naf. So it's both. And you can see the acceleration in the business. Obviously, with the normalizing of the occupancy levels and the continued strength of pricing.

本，是納夫。所以兩者都是。你可以看到業務的加速。顯然，隨著入住率的正常化和定價的持續走強。

Got you. That's really helpful. And then on CocoCay, are you still seeing the same or similar pricing premiums to the CocoCay itineraries as you did in 2019? And then longer term, should we assume that you make further build-out in other locations that are similar to CocoCay? And if so, how do you think about that opportunity while also bringing down [Hideaway]?

明白了這真的很有幫助。然後在 CocoCay 上，您是否仍然看到與 2019 年的 CocoCay 行程相同或相似的定價溢價？然後從長遠來看，我們是否應該假設您在與 CocoCay 類似的其他地點進一步擴建？如果是這樣，您如何看待這個機會，同時還要打倒 [Hideaway]？

Ben, it's Michael. I think the answer to those questions is yes and yes. I mean we ironically open CocoCay in 2019, and it is just a huge success. Now, of course, it's really doing an amazing job. And the demand for that product is exceptionally high. We have a significant increase in our overall capacity that we bring into CocoCay. I think for this year '23, we'll be bringing 2.5 million to 3 million guests to CocoCay. And the demand not only is there from a volume perspective, but the rate is there. And that rate has been going up again in a very healthy way. And it's the same with the spend for the products and experiences on Perfect Day. We've seen a great demand and a lot of resilience as the prices go up.

本，是邁克爾。我認為這些問題的答案是肯定的。我的意思是具有諷刺意味的是，我們在 2019 年開設了 CocoCay，而且取得了巨大的成功。現在，當然，它確實做得非常出色。而且對該產品的需求非常高。我們帶入 CocoCay 的整體能力有了顯著提高。我認為今年 23 年，我們將為 CocoCay 帶來 250 萬到 300 萬客人。從數量的角度來看，需求不僅存在，而且比率也存在。而且這個比率一直在以一種非常健康的方式再次上升。 Perfect Day 的產品和體驗支出也是如此。隨著價格上漲，我們看到了巨大的需求和很大的彈性。

So it's a hit and it's very successful. We are opening Hideaway Beach on the fourth quarter of this year in preparation for Icon of the Seas. It will be arriving also towards the end of the fourth quarter. And of course, that Hideaway Beach will allow us to bring an additional 3,000 people to Perfect Day. So our capacity will be approximately 13,000 people a day. And yes, we have an appetite for other such ventures. And as soon as we're ready to make any announcements, we will.

所以它很受歡迎，而且非常成功。我們將於今年第四季度開放 Hideaway Beach，為海洋標誌做準備。它也將在第四季度末到達。當然，Hideaway Beach 將使我們能夠為 Perfect Day 帶來額外的 3,000 人。因此，我們每天的容量約為 13,000 人。是的，我們對其他此類企業有興趣。一旦我們準備好發布任何公告，我們就會發布。

But clearly, from our perspective, we think this is a really -- it's a wonderful part of the product experience, and our guests clearly demand this type of experience that we can now give them. So our intention is to continue to grow this piece of the experience for our guests.

但很明顯，從我們的角度來看，我們認為這是一個真正的 - 這是產品體驗的一個美妙部分，我們的客人顯然需要我們現在可以為他們提供的這種體驗。所以我們的目的是繼續為我們的客人增加這種體驗。

So let me just add one other thing, which is the financial returns associated with CocoCay and the like are exceptionally high and are significantly above our targeted returns. So this should be accretive to profitability and obviously to EBITDA and those are the type of investments that we obviously want to continue to make.

所以讓我再補充一件事，那就是與 CocoCay 等相關的財務回報非常高，並且大大高於我們的目標回報。因此，這應該會增加盈利能力，顯然會增加 EBITDA，而這些是我們顯然希望繼續進行的投資類型。

Got you. And just one quick follow-up. Is the -- those numbers are on Hideaway Beach, 3,000 a day. Is that incremental to the 2.5 million to 3 million at CocoCay? Or is 2.5 -- yes?

明白了並且只是一個快速跟進。是——這些數字是在 Hideaway Beach 上，每天 3,000 個。這比 CocoCay 的 250 萬到 300 萬有所增加嗎？或者是 2.5——是嗎？

Yes, yes. Yes, that's incremental.

是的是的。是的，這是漸進的。

Your next question will come from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

你的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 James Hardiman。

And congrats on a great quarter and some really important benchmarks here. I wanted to dig in a little bit on Europe and Asia. Obviously, a year ago, WAVE season, there was -- it was obviously marred by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Being such a global brand, you guys do what you do, you adjust. And it sounds like both in terms of the destination markets as well as sourcing customers, things are getting better.

並祝賀一個偉大的季度和一些非常重要的基準。我想深入了解一下歐洲和亞洲。顯然，一年前的 WAVE 賽季顯然受到了俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突的影響。作為這樣一個全球品牌，你們做你們做的，你們調整。聽起來無論是在目的地市場還是在採購客戶方面，情況都在好轉。

I guess my question is on Europe, is there still a lingering impact of that conflict in your business that, who knows what's going to happen with that conflict, but that could ultimately be a positive for next year? And then sort of similar question with China. I'm assuming there's not much of a benefit yet from sort of the Zero COVID policy going away there. But is there any way to sort of quantify or even anecdotally speak to what sort of a drag that is on your business that could potentially open up for you next year?

我想我的問題是關於歐洲的，那場衝突是否仍然對您的業務產生揮之不去的影響，誰知道那場衝突會發生什麼，但這最終可能對明年產生積極影響？然後是與中國類似的問題。我假設從那裡消失的零 COVID 政策還沒有太大的好處。但是，是否有任何方法可以量化甚至以軼事的方式說明明年可能對您的業務造成什麼樣的拖累？

So I'll just -- I'll start on the Europe one, and Michael can then take China. First off, I think the consumer -- the impact on the Ukraine, Russia, I think, comes to us in two ways. One of which is a little bit of a deployment impact, and we're not able to go more east into the Baltics because of the very unfortunate conflict that continues on. And then obviously, there's some impact in the European consumer because of energy prices. That, I think, is the impact that hopefully will evaporate over time. But their propensity to cruise, their desire to go on a vacation experience is high.

所以我會 - 我將從歐洲開始，然後邁克爾可以接管中國。首先，我認為消費者——我認為對烏克蘭、俄羅斯的影響以兩種方式傳給我們。其中之一是對部署有一點影響，由於非常不幸的衝突仍在繼續，我們無法向東進入波羅的海。然後很明顯，由於能源價格，歐洲消費者受到了一些影響。我認為，這種影響有望隨著時間的推移而消失。但是他們喜歡游輪，他們想要去度假的願望很高。

The value proposition for the cruise, as I noted in my remarks, that gap is still very significant. That's too significant as we look to try to close that. But I think that's really where you see the effect. The consumers' desire to go, or European consumers' desire to go to the Nordics, desire to go to the Western Med, Eastern Med, which is really kind of fully open to them to experience that demand is there. I just think that they continue to probably be a little bit more pinched, certainly more pinched in the North American consumer because of the increase in energy prices and how that's impacted their economy. And with that, I'll let Michael comment on China.

正如我在發言中指出的那樣，郵輪的價值主張仍然非常顯著。這太重要了，因為我們希望嘗試關閉它。但我認為這才是你真正看到效果的地方。消費者想要去的願望，或者歐洲消費者想要去北歐的願望，想要去西地中海、東地中海的願望，這對他們來說真的是完全開放的，去體驗那裡的需求。我只是認為，由於能源價格上漲及其對經濟的影響，他們可能會繼續受到更多的壓力，當然北美消費者的壓力更大。就此，我將讓邁克爾對中國發表評論。

Yes, on China, there's -- obviously, the environment improved significantly from what we've being told by our China team. So things have started to normalize, and they seem to have got over that very difficult period. There's currently two impediments to the China cruise market opening up. One of them is there's still a ban technically on cruising and group travel in China. And also, there's a requirement from the Japanese that Chinese tourists have to test and potentially could be quarantined.

是的，在中國，很明顯，我們的中國團隊告訴我們，環境有了顯著改善。所以事情已經開始正常化，他們似乎已經度過了那個非常困難的時期。目前中國郵輪市場開放面臨兩大障礙。其中之一是在中國仍然嚴格禁止郵輪和團體旅行。而且，日本人要求中國遊客必須進行檢測，並可能被隔離。

We understand that both of these conditions will drop away at some point during this first half. That's what we've been led to believe, and we believe that that's going to happen. As soon as those two conditions change, then obviously, the market will reopen and we're thinking that it will be late '23, and we're kind of thinking that '24 probably, realistically, the China market will be back. But obviously, that's based upon how we understand and see the situation currently.

我們知道這兩種情況都會在上半年的某個時候消失。這就是我們被引導相信的，我們相信那將會發生。一旦這兩個條件發生變化，那麼很明顯，市場將重新開放，我們認為 23 歲末，我們有點認為 24 歲，實際上，中國市場可能會回來。但顯然，這是基於我們對當前情況的理解和看法。

Yes, I was just going to -- and clearly, China was a very high-yielding, highly profitable market for us. And as that market comes back online, we're very optimistic about how that can either further propel the opportunity for us.

是的，我正打算——很明顯，中國對我們來說是一個非常高產、高利潤的市場。隨著該市場重新上線，我們對這將如何進一步推動我們的機會感到非常樂觀。

And I would just comment in the context of Trifecta, we didn't contemplate China in that consideration as it has not turned itself back on.

我只想在 Trifecta 的背景下發表評論，我們沒有考慮到中國，因為它還沒有重新啟動。

And it's also not obviously incorporated in our -- this year results as well.

而且它也沒有明顯地納入我們 - 今年的結果中。

Got it. All really helpful. And then by way of follow-up here. I mean, you've talked a couple of times, I think, about closing that gap to land-based vacations. I thought the commentary about cruise search outpacing general vacation searching seemed relevant. Maybe speak to that. Do you think that gap has gotten as big as it's going to get and maybe you close that gap this year? Obviously, you have much more insight into your own business than into land-based vacation but maybe sort of updated thoughts there.

知道了。一切都非常有幫助。然後在這裡跟進。我的意思是，我想你已經談過幾次關於縮小與陸上假期的差距。我認為關於郵輪搜索超過一般假期搜索的評論似乎是相關的。或許可以這麼說。您是否認為差距已經變得越來越大，也許您今年會縮小差距？顯然，與陸上度假相比，您對自己的業務有更多的洞察力，但也許在那裡有一些更新的想法。

Yes, I don't know -- I don't think we're going to close that gap in 2023. I'm encouraged by the ability now for us to increase our pricing even more, which I think will give us the opportunity to close that gap. I'm excited about what we're seeing in the onboard side, which also helps us close that gap. But that gap, which used to be 20% is now in the 30% zone relative to pre-COVID, which was around the 20% mark.

是的，我不知道——我認為我們不會在 2023 年縮小這一差距。我對現在能夠進一步提高定價感到鼓舞，我認為這會給我們機會縮小差距。我對我們在機載方面看到的內容感到興奮，這也有助於我們縮小差距。但這個差距，過去是 20%，現在是 30% 的區域，相對於 COVID 之前的 20% 左右。

But we do think that, that's -- there's a lot of runway for us, and that just I think through great execution, just broader awareness of our brands and the cruise complex that we see now as being appreciated more and more by our guests helps us lead to getting better pricing and which helps us lead that to that -- closing that gap.

但我們確實認為，那是——我們有很多跑道，而且我認為通過出色的執行力，更廣泛地了解我們的品牌和我們現在看到的越來越受到客人讚賞的郵輪綜合設施有助於我們導致獲得更好的定價，這有助於我們實現這一目標 - 縮小差距。

What we're not interested in is the gap closing just because their pricing could potentially go down. Like we want to elevate ourselves up to that level, and we think that's definitely something that's in our capabilities to do so.

我們不感興趣的是差距縮小只是因為他們的定價可能會下降。就像我們想將自己提升到那個水平一樣，我們認為這絕對是我們有能力做到的事情。

Got it. And good luck the rest of the way you guys.

知道了。祝你們接下來的路好運。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Politzer with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Daniel Politzer。

And congrats on a nice quarter. So first, I wanted to just touch on the cost. It sounds like you're going to exit 2023 more in line with your historical levels. As you get to 2024, and I know it's still early days, are there any kind of onetime items that we should be thinking about that could impact your algorithm, that kind of 1% to 2% cost increase and whether it's China relaunching or land-based destinations or any technology initiatives?

祝賀一個不錯的季度。所以首先，我想談談成本。聽起來您將更符合您的歷史水平退出 2023 年。到 2024 年時，我知道現在還為時過早，是否有任何我們應該考慮的一次性項目可能會影響您的算法，比如 1% 到 2% 的成本增加，無論是中國重啟還是登陸基於目的地或任何技術舉措？

Yes. So as we said, our formula is moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, strong cost control and obviously, you have some moving pieces here in the first quarter and throughout the year. But this is kind of where we're marching towards. So our expectation is to get back to that formula.

是的。因此，正如我們所說，我們的公式是適度的產能增長、適度的收益率增長、強有力的成本控制，顯然，第一季度和全年都有一些變化。但這是我們前進的方向。所以我們的期望是回到那個公式。

Got it. And then I guess for my follow-up on TUI. Can you just talk a little bit more about the ramp there? I know that there's a big European piece, and it sounds like things are moving along. But how should we think about that contribution ramping over the course of 2023 given that it was a big piece of that adjusted EBITDA in 2019?

知道了。然後我想我對 TUI 的後續行動。你能多談談那裡的坡道嗎？我知道有一個很大的歐洲作品，聽起來事情正在向前發展。但是，鑑於它在 2019 年調整後的 EBITDA 中佔很大一部分，我們應該如何看待這種貢獻在 2023 年期間的增長？

Yes. So they continue. We're very happy with TUI, and their performance has been very successful cruise brand. Their recovery is well underway. They have been positive operating cash flow and EBITDA for several quarters now. They're very strong occupancy levels and pricing. So we continue -- we expect this to continue to recover towards 2019 levels and beyond. .

是的。所以他們繼續。我們對 TUI 非常滿意，他們的表現一直是非常成功的郵輪品牌。他們的康復正在進行中。幾個季度以來，他們一直是正的經營現金流和 EBITDA。它們的入住率和價格都非常高。所以我們繼續 - 我們預計這將繼續恢復到 2019 年及以後的水平。 .

Yes. The only I would add is for TUI cruises, a (inaudible) cruise is just similar to all of us. They still have some negative carry to burn off as well. And I think there are a few years from being at a place where they're contributing at the same level to us as they were in '19. But that's -- I think it's a very short duration as they have been really effectively managing the business. They've really been outpacing, I think, just a broader cruise world and getting their business back up and running and profitable and generating positive cash flow. But like all of us, they have some negative carry they're going to have to burn off.

是的。我唯一要補充的是 TUI 遊輪，（聽不清）遊輪與我們所有人都相似。他們還有一些負面的進位需要消耗掉。而且我認為還有幾年的時間，他們才能像在 19 年那樣為我們做出同樣水平的貢獻。但那是 - 我認為這是一個非常短的持續時間，因為他們一直在真正有效地管理業務。我認為，他們確實已經超越了更廣闊的郵輪世界，讓他們的業務恢復正常運行，盈利並產生正現金流。但就像我們所有人一樣，他們也有一些必須消除的負面因素。

Your next question will come from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

First is actually just a modeling clarification question. On your percentage guidances to grow up versus '19 for the net yields and the various cruise costs, are those apples-to-apples based numbers, basically the reported numbers that you had in -- back in 2019, are those the numbers we should be growing off of? Or is there any adjustments in there that might make those percentages different than -- okay, all apples-to-apples?

首先實際上只是一個建模澄清問題。關於淨收益和各種郵輪成本的增長百分比指導與 19 年的百分比指導，是那些基於蘋果對蘋果的數字，基本上是你在 2019 年報告的數字，這些數字是我們應該正在成長？或者那裡是否有任何調整可能會使這些百分比不同於 - 好吧，所有蘋果對蘋果？

No adjustments. Those are apples-to-apples and obviously, we gave you the color of all the moving pieces.

沒有調整。這些都是同類產品，顯然，我們為您提供了所有移動部件的顏色。

Okay. And then a different question here. With the increase in direct business, do you see that disproportionately going to any types of destinations such as Caribbean or perhaps higher-end Alaska or Mediterranean any differentiation between those?

好的。然後這裡是一個不同的問題。隨著直接業務的增加，您是否看到不成比例地前往任何類型的目的地，例如加勒比海或更高端的阿拉斯加或地中海，它們之間有什麼區別嗎？

Well, clearly, on direct business, the shorter the product, the higher the percentage, and that's just more because the consumer is comfortable and understands the complexity of -- or the lack of complexity on the short product. The further typically, the consumer goes or the higher end that it goes typically requires, they're more comfortable going to our travel partners.

好吧，很明顯，在直接業務中，產品越短，百分比越高，這更多是因為消費者感到舒服並且理解其複雜性 - 或者短產品缺乏複雜性。通常情況下，消費者走得越遠或通常需要的高端，他們就越願意去我們的旅行合作夥伴。

We have really tried hard to be just kind of a channel of choice. And of course, the consumer has become a little bit more digitally minded through COVID because they were buying a lot of stuff online as we all know. And as they now shift to experiences, they're comfortable in different channels. And some of those digital platforms are through us and some of those digital platforms where our travel partners. But that's typically how you would see it as the shorter and closer higher.

我們真的很努力地成為一種選擇渠道。當然，消費者通過 COVID 變得更加數字化，因為眾所周知，他們在網上購買了很多東西。隨著他們現在轉向體驗，他們對不同的渠道感到滿意。其中一些數字平台是通過我們和我們的旅行合作夥伴所在的一些數字平台。但這通常是您認為它越短越近越高的方式。

No, that I understand. But as far as any changes since pre-COVID, have you seen a greater acceleration in sort of direct booking to higher end or perhaps a greater acceleration to...

不，我明白了。但就 COVID 之前以來的任何變化而言，您是否看到直接預訂到更高端的速度更快，或者可能更快地加速到……

It's really across the board. On the consumer at all different levels have gotten more comfortable using digital commerce to make their purchases. And that's kind of -- that is whether you want to look at Royal or Celebrity or Silversea or TUI or Hapag, that's what we have been consistently seeing.

這真的是全面的。不同層次的消費者都越來越習慣於使用數字商務進行購買。這有點——無論你是想看看 Royal、Celebrity、Silversea、TUI 還是 Hapag，這就是我們一直看到的。

Okay. Operator, we have time for one more question.

好的。接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will come from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Fred Wightman 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

I just want to make sure I understood the equity investment line commentary. Are you guys saying to just take a haircut to what you guys did in '19, but it will be relatively similar from a seasonality perspective? Or were you trying to say something else?

我只是想確保我理解股權投資線的評論。你們是說只理髮你們在 19 年所做的事情，但從季節性的角度來看會相對相似嗎？還是你想說點別的？

No. I think if you go through the guidance and our expectations of what we provided, our expectations obviously going to be lower than 2019 because what Jason mentioned is the negative carry. So they continue to recover.

不，我認為如果你仔細閱讀指導和我們對所提供內容的期望，我們的期望顯然會低於 2019 年，因為傑森提到的是負利差。所以他們繼續恢復。

Okay. And then there was a comment that 4Q new to cruise was above pre-COVID levels. Just curious, when you look at what you have on the books for '23, does that percentage continue to improve? And could you give us a sense for order of magnitude?

好的。然後有評論說 4Q new to cruise 高於 COVID 之前的水平。只是好奇，當您查看 23 年的賬簿時，這個百分比是否繼續提高？你能給我們一個數量級的感覺嗎？

Yes. Well, and just our general commentary on WAVE. What's driving that strength is new-to-cruise and new-to-brand. And so, that mix is not only similar, but it's better than what we saw take place in the fourth quarter. So we feel that propensity to cruise -- and by the way, I think one thing that's important on the new-to-cruise stat, especially relative to '19 is because we don't have China in the mix of our business. Pretty much every Chinese consumer back in '19 was a new-to-cruise consumer. So that really talks about the strength of the North American and European consumer and their interest to go on a cruise for the first time or to go on to one of our brands for the first time.

是的。好吧，這只是我們對 WAVE 的一般性評論。推動這種力量的是郵輪新手和品牌新手。因此，這種組合不僅相似，而且比我們在第四季度看到的要好。因此，我們感受到了郵輪旅行的傾向——順便說一句，我認為對新郵輪統計數據來說很重要的一件事，尤其是相對於 19 年，是因為我們的業務組合中沒有中國。在 19 年，幾乎每個中國消費者都是郵輪消費者的新手。所以這真的是在談論北美和歐洲消費者的實力，以及他們對第一次乘坐遊輪或第一次使用我們的品牌的興趣。

We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Michael will be available for any follow-ups. I wish you all a great day.

我們感謝大家對公司的參與和興趣。 Michael 將可用於任何後續行動。祝大家度過愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。