皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Group Third Quarter 2023 and Business Update Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Michael McCarthy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. McCarthy, the floor is yours.

早安.我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團 2023 年第三季和業務更新財報電話會議。 （操作員須知） 現在我想介紹一下投資者關係副總裁邁克爾·麥卡錫（Michael McCarthy）。麥卡錫先生，請發言。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chief Executive Officer; Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International.

大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。與我一起來到邁阿密的是我們的執行長傑森·利伯蒂 (Jason Liberty)； Naftali Holtz，我們的財務長；以及皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長 Michael Bayley。

Before we get started, I'd like to note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as circumstances change.

在我們開始之前，我想指出，我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性聲明。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解這些因素的描述。我們不承諾隨著情況的變化而更新任何前瞻性陳述。

Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP items can be found on our Investor Relations website and in our earnings release. Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency adjusted basis.

此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標根據定義進行調整，所有非 GAAP 項目的調整表可以在我們的投資者關係網站和我們的收益發布中找到。除非我們另有說明，否則所有指標均以恆定貨幣調整為基礎。

Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our third quarter and an update on our latest actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

傑森將首先提供策略概述和業務最新情況。 Naftali 隨後將回顧我們第三季的情況以及我們最新行動和當前預訂環境的最新情況。然後我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。至此，我很高興將電話轉給傑森。

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin today, I would like to first acknowledge the devastating events taking place in the Middle East. The horrific terrorist attacks on Israel over two weeks ago have no place in a civilized society. The scale and the barbarity of those attacks should shock us all and brings the situation in the Middle East to a very dangerous low.

謝謝你，邁克爾，大家早安。在我們今天開始之前，我首先要承認中東正在發生的毀滅性事件。兩週前對以色列發生的可怕恐怖攻擊在文明社會中是沒有立足之地的。這些攻擊的規模和野蠻程度應該會讓我們所有人震驚，並使中東局勢降至非常危險的低點。

We are heartbroken at the loss of so many innocent lives then and in the war that continues this day. Our thoughts are with all who have been impacted, including many members of our own team.

我們對當時以及今天仍在繼續的戰爭中失去如此多無辜者的生命感到心碎。我們與所有受到影響的人同在，包括我們團隊的許多成員。

I would also like to recognize the incredible effort from our shoreside teams and crew, aboard Rhapsody of the Seas, who have been working tirelessly with the U.S. Department of State to help safely evacuate Americans from Israel. My heartfelt gratitude goes out to all involved.

我還要感謝海洋狂想曲號上的岸邊團隊和船員所做的令人難以置信的努力，他們一直在與美國國務院不懈地合作，幫助美國人從以色列安全撤離。我衷心感謝所有參與者。

As it relates to the impact of these events on our business, about 1.5% of our capacity in the fourth quarter had planned to visit Israel. Most of the impacted deployment was quickly adjusted, including a few sailings that were home porting in Haifa. The evacuation services of Rhapsody of the Seas will provided pro bono to the U.S. government and these costs are included in our financial forecasts. Combined with canceled and adjusted itineraries in the region for the remainder of the year, the impact amounts to about $0.05 in earnings per share.

由於涉及這些事件對我們業務的影響，我們第四季約有1.5%的運力計劃訪問以色列。大多數受影響的部署很快就得到了調整，其中包括一些在海法母港的航班。海洋狂想曲號的疏散服務將無償向美國政府提供，這些費用已包含在我們的財務預測中。加上今年剩餘時間該地區取消和調整的行程，每股收益的影響約為 0.05 美元。

Now moving on to the business. Our teams have done an outstanding job delivering on another strong quarter as we delivered a yield improvement of close to 17% and beat the midpoint of our EPS guidance by 12%. This beat is further solidifying 2023 as a banner year in positioning us extremely well for 2024 and beyond. I want to thank the entire Royal Caribbean Group team whose enthusiasm and dedication enables us to deliver the very best vacation experiences responsibly while generating strong financial results.

現在轉向業務。我們的團隊表現出色，實現了又一個強勁的季度業績，收益率提高了近 17%，每股收益指導中位數高出 12%。這一節拍進一步鞏固了 2023 年作為標誌性年份的地位，使我們為 2024 年及以後的發展奠定了良好的基礎。我要感謝整個皇家加勒比集團團隊，他們的熱情和奉獻精神使我們能夠負責任地提供最好的度假體驗，同時產生強勁的財務表現。

During the third quarter, all key itineraries exceeded our already elevated expectations as we delivered a record 2 million memorable vacations and exceptional guest satisfaction scores. As you can see on Slide 3, we had record yields for the quarter driven by new hardware, record pricing in the Caribbean and Europe as well as onboard revenue rates that were up about 30%.

第三季度，所有主要行程都超出了我們已經很高的預期，我們創造了創紀錄的 200 萬次難忘假期和卓越的賓客滿意度得分。正如您在投影片 3 中看到的，在新硬體的推動下，我們本季的收益率創歷史新高，加勒比地區和歐洲的定價創紀錄，以及船上收入率增長了約 30%。

While the performance of our Caribbean itineraries has been excellent throughout the year, we were particularly pleased with the double-digit yield growth achieved on our European itineraries in the third quarter. As we look to the full year, the strong performance in the third quarter and continued acceleration in the booking environment is positioning us well to deliver over 13% yield growth for the year and earnings per share that is twice our original guidance for the year.

雖然我們的加勒比海航線全年表現出色，但我們對第三季歐洲航線實現兩位數的收益率成長感到特別高興。展望全年，第三季的強勁表現和預訂環境的持續加速，使我們能夠實現今年超過 13% 的收益率成長，每股收益是我們今年最初指導的兩倍。

The unprecedented acceleration in demand and pricing for our leading brands, combined with stronger demand for onboard experiences were certainly the main drivers of our outperformance. Adding to that, our strong focus on cost has been an important contributing factor to our elevated 2023 results. The healthy demand environment is very encouraging as we continue to build the business for 2024 and beyond.

我們領先品牌的需求和定價空前加速，加上對機上體驗的強勁需求，無疑是我們表現優異的主要驅動力。除此之外，我們對成本的高度關注是我們 2023 年業績提升的一個重要因素。隨著我們繼續為 2024 年及以後發展業務，健康的需求環境非常令人鼓舞。

A year ago, we announced a 3-year financial performance program, Trifecta. Our teams have rallied around to Trifecta targets, focusing on generating strong quality demand enhancing margins, building for the future and most of all, delivering the best vacations in the world.

一年前，我們宣布了一項為期 3 年的財務績效計畫 Trifecta。我們的團隊齊心協力實現 Trifecta 目標，專注於產生強勁的品質需求，提高利潤，為未來而建設，最重要的是，提供世界上最好的假期。

As you can see from our results, we are well on our way to achieving Trifecta. Our proven formula for success remains unchanged. Moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, although I would not describe this year as moderate, and strong cost controls lead to enhanced margins, profitability and superior financial performance.

正如您從我們的結果中看到的，我們正在順利實現 Trifecta。我們行之有效的成功秘訣保持不變。適度的產能成長、適度的產量成長（儘管我不會將今年描述為適度）以及強有力的成本控制導致了利潤率、盈利能力和卓越財務業績的提高。

As I've said in the past, Trifecta creates the pathway back to what we internally describe as base camp. However, base camp is not our final destination, and our ambitions go well beyond it. As we think about 2024 for the Royal Caribbean Group from a consumer demand standpoint, we look to both macro trends and data points from the millions of daily customer interactions.

正如我過去所說，Trifecta 創建了一條返回我們內部所描述的大本營的路徑。然而，大本營並不是我們的最終目的地，我們的野心遠不止於此。當我們從消費者需求的角度思考皇家加勒比集團的 2024 年時，我們既關注宏觀趨勢，也關注來自數百萬日常客戶互動的數據點。

On a macro level, some of the economic indicators continue to provide some conflicting signals. However, when we look closer at these trends, and indicators related to our customers and their related behaviors and strong propensity to cruise, we see that many of these macro indicators are less relevant to our business.

從宏觀層面來看，一些經濟指標持續發出一些相互矛盾的訊號。然而，當我們仔細觀察這些趨勢以及與我們的客戶及其相關行為以及強烈的巡航傾向相關的指標時，我們發現其中許多宏觀指標與我們的業務不太相關。

We have more than 130,000 guests sailing on our ships every day and millions more who book or engage with us throughout our commercial platforms. What we continue to see across all markets, brands and products is an exceptionally engaged consumer that is looking to book their dream vacations with us. The positioning of our brands attract guests across broad demographics, psychographics and at a median household income of at least $125,000.

每天有超過 13 萬名客人在我們的船上航行，還有數百萬人透過我們的商業平台預訂或與我們互動。我們在所有市場、品牌和產品中繼續看到的是非常積極的消費者，他們希望透過我們預訂他們的夢想假期。我們品牌的定位吸引了不同人群、心理特徵以及家庭收入中位數至少 125,000 美元的客人。

Our customers' sentiment is bolstered by strong labor markets, high wages, surplus savings, and elevated wealth levels. Even better for us is the fact that overall spend on experiences continue to grow and is currently up 25% compared to 2019, with twice the amount spent on goods.

強勁的勞動力市場、高薪、盈餘儲蓄和財富水平的提高提振了我們客戶的情緒。對我們來說更好的是，體驗方面的整體支出持續成長，目前比 2019 年成長了 25%，其中商品支出是商品支出的兩倍。

Cruising remains an exceptional value proposition with strong demographics and secular tailwinds, allowing us to outperform the broader leisure travel industry. Our goal is to further narrow the gap to land-based vacations as we attract even more satisfied customers to our vacation ecosystem. I believe that is why when people are raising concerns in other industries like hotel, airline, real estate. Our commercial apparatus is firing on all cylinders with visits to our websites in the third quarter, doubling that of 2019.

憑藉強大的人口統計和長期的推動力，郵輪仍然是一個非凡的價值主張，使我們能夠超越更廣泛的休閒旅遊產業。我們的目標是進一步縮小與陸上度假的差距，因為我們將為我們的度假生態系統吸引更多滿意的客戶。我相信這就是人們對酒店、航空、房地產等其他行業提出擔憂的原因。我們的商業設備正在全速運轉，第三季我們網站的訪問量比 2019 年翻了一番。

Our travel partners are also delivering meaningfully more bookings than 2019 levels and even beating our elevated expectations. Our brand's global appeal and nimble sourcing model allows us to attract the highest yielding guests and partially mitigate the impact from the stronger dollar. Now I'll focus on 2024, which is shaping up to be another incredible year for the Royal Caribbean Group.

我們的旅遊合作夥伴提供的預訂量也明顯高於 2019 年水平，甚至超出了我們較高的預期。我們品牌的全球吸引力和靈活的採購模式使我們能夠吸引最高收益的客人，並部分減輕美元走強的影響。現在我將重點放在 2024 年，這對皇家加勒比集團來說將是另一個令人難以置信的一年。

Our capacity is growing by 8% and our deployment across markets is relatively consistent with 2023 with slightly more Caribbean, slightly less Europe and a return to China for the first time in 4 years. Demand for 2024 has continued to accelerate with bookings consistently outpacing 2019 levels by a wide margin. This has resulted in a booked position that is ahead of all prior years at higher rates further positioning us for another year of strong yield and earnings growth.

我們的產能成長了 8%，我們在各個市場的部署與 2023 年相對一致，加勒比地區略有增加，歐洲略有減少，並且四年來首次回歸中國。 2024 年的需求持續加速，預訂量持續大幅超過 2019 年的水準。這導致預訂部位以更高的利率領先於往年，進一步為我們在新的一年實現強勁的收益率和獲利成長奠定了基礎。

While still early, we anticipate making significant progress towards our trifecta goals in 2024. And based on current fuel FX and interest rates, we anticipate earnings that will start with at least a $9 handle.

雖然還為時過早，但我們預計 2024 年我們的三連勝目標將取得重大進展。根據當前的燃料外匯和利率，我們預計盈利將至少從 9 美元開始。

Our operating platform is larger and stronger than it has ever been with the best brands, the most innovative fleet and destinations and the best people. Each of our brand is the leader within their category. Royal Caribbean International dominates the contemporary market Celebrity Cruises has redefined the premium travel space and no one delivers ultra-luxury and expedition at sea like Silversea.

我們的營運平台比以往任何時候都更大、更強大，擁有最好的品牌、最具創新性的機隊和目的地以及最優秀的人才。我們的每個品牌都是其類別中的領導者。皇家加勒比國際遊輪在當代市場佔據主導地位，精緻遊輪重新定義了高端旅行空間，沒有一家遊輪能夠像銀海遊輪那樣提供超豪華和海上探險服務。

By combining their unique strengths, we have created an attractive vacation ecosystem in which the sum is greater than the parts. Essentially, we are turning our delivery of a vacation of a lifetime into a lifetime of vacations. We will continue to ensure that each brand has what it needs to continue doing what it does best, while leveraging our enhanced commercial capabilities to capture and keep customers in our ecosystem. From young families to empty nesters as they seek to return to us time and time again for the best vacation experiences. Our innovative new ships and onboard experiences allow us to continue to differentiate our offerings as well as deliver superior yields and margins.

透過結合他們的獨特優勢，我們創造了一個有吸引力的度假生態系統，其中總和大於部分。從本質上講，我們正在將一生難忘的假期變成一生難忘的假期。我們將繼續確保每個品牌擁有繼續做自己最擅長的事情所需的條件，同時利用我們增強的商業能力來吸引客戶並將其保留在我們的生態系統中。從年輕的家庭到空巢老人，他們一次又一次地尋求回到我們這裡以獲得最好的度假體驗。我們創新的新船和船上體驗使我們能夠繼續使我們的產品脫穎而出，並提供卓越的產量和利潤。

In August, we welcomed Silver Nova, the first of the new evolution class for our Silversea brand. In the next few weeks, Celebrity Cruises will take delivery of Celebrity Ascent. And Royal Caribbean International will take delivery of the game-changing Icon of the Seas later this quarter with revenue sailings beginning at the end of January.

八月，我們迎來了 Silver Nova，這是我們 Silversea 品牌新進化等級的第一個。在接下來的幾週內，精緻遊輪將接收精緻上升號。皇家加勒比國際遊輪將於本季稍後接收改變遊戲規則的海洋圖標號，並於 1 月底開始營運。

In 2024, we plan to take delivery of Utopia of the Seas for Royal Caribbean International and Silver Ray for Silversea. With each new ship, we raised the bar in the travel industry while enhancing what our guests already know and love.

我們計劃於 2024 年為皇家加勒比國際郵輪公司接收“海洋烏托邦”，為銀海郵輪接收“Silver Ray”號。每一艘新船，我們都提高了旅遊業的標準，同時增強了我們的客人已經了解和喜愛的內容。

Also debuting in January 2024, just in time for the arrival of Icon of the Seas is Hideaway Beach. Hideaway Beach is our newest adult-only ultimate beachfront paradise at Perfect Day at CocoCay. Pre-cruise sales for Hideaway Beach and premium offerings are exceeding our expectations. We are further enhancing our commerce capabilities to optimize our distribution channels, build even more customer loyalty and lower our acquisition costs.

Hideaway Beach 也將於 2024 年 1 月首次亮相，正好趕上海洋圖標號的到來。 Hideaway Beach 是可可島 Perfect Day 最新的僅限成人入住的終極海濱天堂。 Hideaway Beach 和優質產品的遊輪前銷售超出了我們的預期。我們正在進一步增強我們的商務能力，以優化我們的分銷管道，建立更高的客戶忠誠度並降低我們的採購成本。

We have seen a significant increase in new to brand and new-to-cruise customers this year. In fact, in the third quarter, approximately 2/3 of our guests were new to cruise or new to brand, all while also doubling the repeat booking rate, indicating strong loyalty and satisfaction. We've continued to remove friction and make it easier than ever for guests to prebook their activities with about 1/3 of those purchases now coming through the mobile app.

今年我們看到新品牌和新郵輪客戶數量顯著增加。事實上，在第三季度，大約 2/3 的客人是郵輪新手或品牌新手，同時重複預訂率也翻了一番，顯示了強烈的忠誠度和滿意度。我們不斷消除阻礙，讓客人比以往任何時候都更容易預訂活動，其中約 1/3 的購買現在是透過行動應用程式進行的。

In the third quarter, about 70% of guests made pre-cruise purchases at much higher APDs than in prior years. In the third quarter, customers who purchased onboard experiences before their cruise spend 2.5x more than those who only bought once on board.

第三季度，約 70% 的客人在郵輪前以遠高於往年的 APD 進行了購買。第三季度，在郵輪旅行前購買船上體驗的客戶的花費是只在船上購買一次的客戶的 2.5 倍。

As we look into 2024, we have booked over double the amount of pre-cruise revenue compared to this year with more guests engaging before their cruise and at higher prices. We will continue to excel in the core and drive business excellence in order to increase yields and capture efficiencies across our platform.

展望 2024 年，我們的遊輪前預訂收入比今年增加了一倍多，更多的客人在遊輪前參與，價格也更高。我們將繼續在核心領域表現出色並推動業務卓越，以提高整個平台的產量並提高效率。

I said it before, but it's worth mentioning again, our formula for success remains unchanged. We moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth and strong cost controls will lead to enhanced margins, profitability and superior financial performance. Our sustainability ambitions help inform our strategic and financial decisions on a daily basis, ensuring that we always act responsibly while achieving our long-term profitability goals. We are making progress on our SEA the Future commitments to sustain the planet, energize communities and accelerate innovation.

我之前說過，但值得再次提及的是，我們的成功秘訣保持不變。我們適度的產能成長、適度的產量成長和強有力的成本控制將帶來更高的利潤率、獲利能力和卓越的財務表現。我們的永續發展目標有助於為我們的日常策略和財務決策提供信息，確保我們在實現長期獲利目標的同時始終採取負責任的行動。我們正在實踐 SEA the Future 的承諾，以維持地球的永續發展、為社區注入活力並加速創新。

We are also progressing towards a double-digit reduction in carbon intensity versus 2019 by 2025 and are exploring multiple options for low carbon-based solutions for our existing fleet while we design the fleet of the future with flexibility in mind.

我們也致力於在 2025 年將碳強度較 2019 年降低兩位數，並正在為我們現有的機隊探索多種基於低碳的解決方案，同時我們在設計未來機隊時考慮到靈活性。

This past quarter, we concluded a 12-week biofuel trial program in Europe, a first in the industry to cover multiple fuel types in multiple operating areas. The trials resulted in a 20% carbon reduction while also helping to better understand supply chain dynamics. The decision that we are making now will help position us to deliver a net zero ship by 2035 and achieve our climate strategy of Destination Net Zero.

上個季度，我們在歐洲完成了為期 12 週的生物燃料試驗計劃，這是業界首次涵蓋多個營運區域的多種燃料類型。這些試驗減少了 20% 的碳排放，同時也有助於更好地了解供應鏈動態。我們現在做出的決定將有助於我們在 2035 年之前交付一艘淨零船舶，並實現我們的「目的地淨零」氣候戰略。

Our business is performing exceptionally well, and we are making significant progress towards achieving Trifecta goals. The future of the Royal Caribbean Group is bright with our strong platform and proven strategies, we are creating a lifetime of vacation experiences for our customers while also delivering long-term shareholder value that allows us to reach new financial records. With that, I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

我們的業務表現非常出色，並且在實現 Trifecta 目標方面取得了重大進展。皇家加勒比集團的未來是光明的，憑藉我們強大的平台和行之有效的策略，我們正在為客戶創造終生難忘的度假體驗，同時也提供長期股東價值，使我們能夠達到新的財務記錄。這樣，我就把它交給納夫塔利了。納夫？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with third quarter results. Our teams delivered another strong performance with adjusted earnings per share of $3.85, 12% higher than the midpoint of our July guidance. We finished the third quarter with a load factor of 110% and with net yields, they were up almost 17% versus 2019, about 300 basis points higher than the midpoint of our July guidance. Overall, about 50% of the better-than-expected yield performance was driven by European itineraries with the remainder mainly driven by Caribbean and Alaska.

謝謝傑森，大家早安。讓我從第三季的業績開始。我們的團隊再次表現強勁，調整後每股收益為 3.85 美元，比我們 7 月指導值的中位數高出 12%。第三季結束時，我們的載客率為 110%，淨收益率比 2019 年成長了近 17%，比我們 7 月指引的中位數高出約 300 個基點。總體而言，約 50% 的優於預期的收益表現是由歐洲航線推動的，其餘部分主要由加勒比海和阿拉斯加航線推動。

Rates were up approximately 18% in the third quarter compared to '19 and onboard APDs have been consistently higher even as load factors return to historical levels.

與 19 年相比，第三季的運價上漲了約 18%，即使載客率恢復到歷史水平，船上的 APD 也始終保持在較高水平。

NCC, excluding fuel, increased 10.3% compared to the third quarter of 2019, 100 basis points lower than our July guidance. Lower operating costs as well as favorable timing contributed to the better-than-expected costs. Our teams continue to deliver strong top line growth while maintaining focus on costs to expand our margin.

NCC（不含燃料）較 2019 年第三季成長 10.3%，比我們 7 月的指引低 100 個基點。較低的營運成本以及有利的時機導致成本優於預期。我們的團隊繼續實現強勁的收入成長，同時繼續專注於成本以擴大利潤。

We delivered an EBITDA margin of nearly 42% in the third quarter, on par with 2019 levels. Over 100% of the revenue outperformance during the quarter dropped to the broad bottom line, leading to higher adjusted EBITDA and earnings versus expectations.

第三季我們的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 42%，與 2019 年水準持平。本季超過 100% 的營收表現下降至整體利潤，導致調整後 EBITDA 和收益高於預期。

We continue to see strong demand and pricing for both 2023 and 2024 sailings. This has resulted in higher-than-expected load factors and record yields in the third quarter, along with a record booked position on a forward-looking basis. Now that we are in the fourth quarter, many of our ships have transitioned from their summer to their winter itineraries.

我們繼續看到 2023 年和 2024 年航行的強勁需求和定價。這導致第三季的載客率高於預期，收益率創歷史新高，前瞻預訂量也創歷史新高。現在已經進入第四季度，我們的許多船舶已經從夏季行程過渡到冬季行程。

In the fourth quarter, about 55% of our capacity will be in the Caribbean, 11% in Europe, and about 13% in the Asia Pacific region. The remaining capacity is spread across a number of other itineraries, including repositionings, South America and Expedition Cruises.

第四季度，我們約55%的產能將在加勒比海地區，11%在歐洲，約13%在亞太地區。剩餘運力分佈在許多其他航線上，包括重新定位、南美洲和遠徵郵輪。

Now let's turn to Slide 6 to talk about our guidance for the full year 2023. We now expect net yield growth of 12.9% to 13.4% for the full year, a 140 basis point increase from the midpoint of our prior guidance. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up 7% to 7.5% for the full year as compared to '19.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 6 來討論我們對 2023 年全年的指導。我們現在預計全年淨收益率將增長 12.9% 至 13.4%，比我們之前指導的中點增加 140 個基點。與 19 年相比，全年淨郵輪成本（不包括燃油）預計將成長 7% 至 7.5%。

Our cost outlook has not changed from our July guidance. We do, however, have slightly fewer APCDs due to the canceled sailings that included Israel impacting NCCx by approximately 30 basis points. Our cost outlook reflects the continued benefit from all the actions we have taken over the last several years to support enhanced margins.

我們的成本前景與 7 月的指引相比沒有變化。然而，由於包括以色列在內的航班取消，我們的 APCD 確實略有減少，這對 NCCx 造成了約 30 個基點的影響。我們的成本前景反映了我們過去幾年為支持提高利潤率而採取的所有行動所帶來的持續收益。

We continue to expect record adjusted EBITDA per APCD for the year and an EBITDA margin that is back to our previous record in 2019. So in summary, we expect adjusted earnings per share of $6.58 to $6.63 and it includes approximately $0.21 negative impact from FX and fuel rates as well as sailings that included Israel.

我們繼續預計今年每APCD 的調整後EBITDA 將創歷史新高，並且EBITDA 利潤率將回到2019 年之前的記錄。總而言之，我們預計調整後每股收益為6.58 美元至6.63 美元，其中包括來自外匯和外匯的約0.21 美元的負面影響。燃油費率以及包括以色列在內的航班。

Now turning to Slide 7. I will discuss our fourth quarter guidance. Fourth quarter yields are expected to be up approximately 16.2% to 16.7%, driven by our incredible new hardware and a significant increase in rates, both ticket and chipboard for like-for-like ships. This range also includes about 200 basis points negative impact from the elimination of the reporting lag related to Silversea.

現在轉向幻燈片 7。我將討論我們的第四季度指導。受我們令人難以置信的新硬體和同類船舶的船票和刨花板費率大幅上漲的推動，第四季度收益率預計將增長約 16.2% 至 16.7%。該範圍還包括因消除與 Silversea 相關的報告滯後而產生的約 200 個基點的負面影響。

NCC, excluding fuel, is expected to be up 3.9% to 4.4% and including 60 basis points impact from sailings that included Israel related to reduced APCDs. As for adjusted earnings per share, we expect a range of $1.05 to $1.10 for the fourth quarter. This also includes $0.18 negative impact from FX and fuel rates as well as sailings that included Israel. Now I will share insights for 2024, which while still early, is shaping up to be another exciting year for the company.

NCC（不包括燃料）預計將上漲 3.9% 至 4.4%，其中包括以色列在內的航次因 APCD 減少而產生的 60 個基點影響。至於調整後每股收益，我們預計第四季的調整後每股收益將在 1.05 美元至 1.10 美元之間。這還包括外匯和燃油費率以及包括以色列在內的航行帶來的 0.18 美元負面影響。現在，我將分享對 2024 年的見解，儘管 2024 年還為時過早，但對公司來說將是另一個令人興奮的一年。

2024 capacity is expected to be up 8% as we introduce Icon, Utopia and Silver Ray and benefit from a full year of Ascent and Silver Nova. Capacity growth is most pronounced in the first and the third quarters due to the timing of new ship deliveries and timing of dry docks. Our Caribbean capacity is growing about 13% in 2024 and will represent about 55% of overall deployment.

隨著我們推出 Icon、Utopia 和 Silver Ray，並受益於全年的 Ascent 和 Silver Nova，2024 年產能預計將成長 8%。由於新船交付時間和乾船塢時間安排，第一季和第三季的運力成長最為明顯。到 2024 年，我們的加勒比地區容量將成長約 13%，佔整體部署量的 55% 左右。

We are adding a full year of Icon of the Seas and about 7 months of short Caribbean sailings on Utopia. We also expect to increase the number of guests experiencing Perfect Day at CocoCay with the addition of Hideaway Beach. As a result, we expect a total of 3 million guests will experience Perfect Day in 2024, up from 2.5 million this year.

我們將在烏托邦號上增加一整年的海洋圖標號和約 7 個月的短途加勒比海航行。我們也希望隨著 Hideaway Beach 的增加，能夠增加在 CocoCay 體驗 Perfect Day 的客人數量。因此，我們預計 2024 年將有 300 萬名賓客體驗 Perfect Day，高於今年的 250 萬名賓客。

European itineraries will account for 15% of our capacity in 2024. Alaska will account for about 6% and Asia Pacific itineraries will account for 10%, marking our return to China with Spectrum of the Seas in Q2 of next year. Capacity for itineraries to visit Israel account for less than 1.5% in 2024. As Jason mentioned, both our booked load factors and APDs are higher than all previous years. This is despite having more short Caribbean itineraries in China, which typically book closer in.

2024年，歐洲航線將佔運力的15%，阿拉斯加航線將佔6%左右，亞太航線將佔10%，這標誌著我們將於明年第二季隨海洋光譜號重返中國。 2024 年，前往以色列的航線運力佔比不到 1.5%。正如 Jason 所提到的，我們的預訂載客率和 APD 都高於往年。儘管在中國有更多的短途加勒比海行程，而且通常會在更近的地方預訂。

There are a few factors that are expected to influence the cadence of our yield growth throughout 2024. In addition to the typical variability driven by the timing of new ship deliveries, the return to normal load factors in the first half of the year will bolster our year-over-year yield growth in comparison to the back half. The first quarter will also benefit from the annualization of pricing power that accelerated during wave this year.

預計有幾個因素會影響我們整個 2024 年的產量成長節奏。除了新船交付時間驅動的典型變化之外，今年上半年恢復正常的載運率也將增強我們的產量成長。與下半年相比，收益率年增。第一季也將受益於今年浪潮中加速的定價能力年化。

Now moving to costs. Our focus remains to control costs as we seek to grow our revenue and margins. We also continue to benefit from all the actions that we have taken in the last few years to reshape our cost structure. In 2024, we expect to have double the dry dock days compared to this year because of timing of dry docks throughout the pandemic.

現在轉向成本。在尋求增加收入和利潤的同時，我們的重點仍然是控製成本。我們也繼續受益於過去幾年為重塑成本結構而採取的所有行動。由於整個大流行期間的乾船塢時間安排，我們預計 2024 年的乾船塢天數將是今年的兩倍。

In addition, we are launching Hideaway Beach at Perfect Day at CocoCay that while it is accretive to margin, has no APCDs associated with it, further impacting cost comparisons. We expect the increased dry dock days and the opening of Hideaway Beach to negatively impact NCCx by approximately 300 basis points next year.

此外，我們正在 CocoCay 的 Perfect Day 推出 Hideaway Beach，雖然它可以增加利潤，但沒有與之相關的 APCD，這進一步影響了成本比較。我們預計乾船塢天數的增加和 Hideaway Beach 的開放將對明年的 NCCx 產生約 300 個基點的負面影響。

Outside of that, we expect cost to increase very low single digits, consistent with our proven formula. We will provide more details on the financial impact of these items during our fourth quarter earnings call. The combination of our strong book position and an accelerating demand environment is certainly pointing to another year of solid yield growth and a step change in earnings growth as we accelerate towards our Trifecta goals.

除此之外，我們預計成本將增加非常低的個位數，這與我們經過驗證的公式一致。我們將在第四季度的財報電話會議上提供有關這些項目的財務影響的更多詳細資訊。我們強勁的帳面狀況和不斷增長的需求環境相結合，無疑預示著我們將在加速實現「三連勝」目標的過程中，迎來又一年的收益率穩健增長和盈利增長的階躍變化。

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $3.3 billion in liquidity. Strengthening the balance sheet continues to be a top priority. Better-than-expected cash flow generation and our disciplined capital allocation has allowed us to accelerate reduction in leverage and debt levels with the goal of achieving investment-grade balance sheet metrics.

轉向我們的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的流動資金為 33 億美元。強化資產負債表仍然是首要任務。優於預期的現金流量產生和嚴格的資本配置使我們能夠加速降低槓桿和債務水平，以實現投資級資產負債表指標。

Utilizing cash flow from operations, we repaid $775 million of debt during the quarter, including $500 million of our 11.5% senior secured notes due June 2025.

利用營運現金流，我們在本季度償還了 7.75 億美元的債務，其中包括 2025 年 6 月到期的 11.5% 優先擔保票據中的 5 億美元。

In October, we refinanced our $3 billion revolving credit facility and $500 million term loan into a new $3.5 billion multiyear revolving credit facility. The successful execution of the new credit facility demonstrates the continued support and confidence in the company's financial position and credit improvement.

10 月份，我們將 30 億美元的循環信貸額度和 5 億美元的定期貸款再融資，轉為新的 35 億美元的多年循環信貸額度。新信貸安排的成功執行顯示了對公司財務狀況和信用改善的持續支持和信心。

Also in October, we issued a redemption notice for the remaining $500 million of our 11.5% secured notes due June 2025. This redemption will be funded with existing liquidity. With that, we expect to pay off over $3.5 billion of debt and reduce leverage to mid 4x by the end of the year. Debt paydown actions reduced interest expense by close to $100 million in 2023 compared to our initial expectations and contribute to further increase in earnings going forward as we chip away at our high-cost debt.

同樣在 10 月，我們發布了 2025 年 6 月到期的 11.5% 擔保票據剩餘 5 億美元的贖回通知。此次贖回將由現有流動性提供資金。這樣，我們預計到年底將償還超過 35 億美元的債務，並將槓桿率降低至約 4 倍。與我們最初的預期相比，債務償還行動在 2023 年減少了近 1 億美元的利息支出，並有助於隨著我們削減高成本債務而進一步增加未來收益。

Our commitment to strengthening the balance sheet is also being recognized by the credit agencies. In the third quarter, S&P upgraded our credit rating by 2 notches to BB- and Moody's upgraded our credit rating by 1 notch to B1 with a positive outlook. As the business accelerates and generates more cash flow, we'll continue to proactively and methodically pay down debt and pursue opportunistic refinancings in support of our Trifecta goals.

我們對加強資產負債表的承諾也得到了信貸機構的認可。第三季度，標普將我們的信用評級上調 2 個等級至 BB-，穆迪將我們的信用評級上調 1 個等級至 B1，前景樂觀。隨著業務加速發展並產生更多現金流，我們將繼續主動、有條不紊地償還債務並尋求機會再融資，以支持我們的 Trifecta 目標。

In closing, we remain committed and focused on executing on our strategy and delivering our mission while achieving our Trifecta goals. With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for a question-and-answer session.

最後，我們仍然致力於並專注於執行我們的策略並履行我們的使命，同時實現我們的 Trifecta 目標。之後，我將要求我們的接線生打開電話進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Steven Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Steven Wieczynski 和 Stifel 的線路。

So Jason, you essentially just provided us with some kind of guidance for 2024, which is much appreciated. And I would also say probably much better, I think, than anybody would have expected given the higher fuel costs and kind of those fears out there around your cost structure.

Jason，您實際上只是為我們提供了 2024 年的某種指導，我們非常感激。我還想說，考慮到更高的燃料成本以及圍繞成本結構的擔憂，我認為可能比任何人預期的都要好得多。

So as we think about that spread between the yields and costs, I mean, normally, we be expecting that spread to be whatever, 200, 300, maybe 400 basis points. But you guys are on pace this year to see your yields outpace your cost by, let's call it, close to 900 basis points. So I guess what I'm getting at here is we think about next year, based on our math to get to that EPS number north of $9, you probably need to see that spread be pretty wide again, given the fact that Naf just talked about cost being up let's call it, 300 to 400 basis points.

因此，當我們考慮收​​益率和成本之間的利差時，我的意思是，通常情況下，我們預計該利差為 200、300、也許 400 個基點。但今年你們的收益率將超過成本，我們可以這麼說，接近 900 個基點。所以我想我在這裡想說的是，我們考慮明年，根據我們的數學計算，每股收益將超過 9 美元，考慮到 Naf 剛剛談到的事實，你可能需要看到這種價差再次相當大關於成本上漲，我們稱之為300 到400 個基點。

So saying all that another way is that I'm guessing your yield expectations for next year must be pretty high at this point. So I hope that all makes sense.

因此，換句話說，我猜測此時您對明年的收益率預期一定相當高。所以我希望一切都有意義。

So obviously, we are feeling very good about the business, the demand for our brands, the demand for our ships and destinations, and we're seeing that as I noted in my remarks, not only in terms of the daily interactions with our guests, but also just the high level of booking activity and the strength we're seeing in bookings where we have been booking at an accelerated pace really since early this year.

顯然，我們對業務、對我們品牌的需求、對我們船舶和目的地的需求感覺非常好，正如我在演講中指出的那樣，我們不僅在與客人的日常互動中看到了這一點，而且還有高水準的預訂活動以及我們在預訂中看到的實力，自今年年初以來，我們的預訂速度確實在加快。

And of course, as we've been booking, not just for 2023, but we've also been booking for 2024. And when we look at our book of business, we see a lot of strength in volume. And of course, with strength in volume allows us to continue to improve on the rate side. And you combine all that with incredible hardware coming into place next year, especially Icon of the Seas as well as more volume on to places like Perfect day because of Hideaway, we feel very good about our yield projections for next year.

當然，我們不僅預訂了 2023 年的訂單，還預訂了 2024 年的訂單。當我們查看我們的業務簿時，我們看到數量上有很大的優勢。當然，憑藉交易量的優勢，我們能夠在利率方面繼續提高。將所有這些與明年即將到位的令人難以置信的硬體結合起來，尤其是海洋圖標號，以及像完美日這樣的地方因為神仙珊瑚島而增加的銷量，我們對明年的產量預測感到非常滿意。

Now it's still early so we're not in a place where we're going to guide, but as our general internal ambition is always to make sure that our yields are meaningfully outpacing our costs. And of course, most of our costs, as Naf pointed out, growth next year on a per unit basis is really just driven by additional dry dock days and of course, Hideaway, which delivers incredible margins which will improve our yield profile but also has cost in no APCDs.

現在還為時過早，所以我們還沒有達到我們要指導的地步，但我們整體的內部目標始終是確保我們的產量明顯超過我們的成本。當然，正如Naf 指出的那樣，我們的大部分成本明年的單位成本增長實際上只是由額外的干船塢天數推動的，當然還有Hideaway，它提供了令人難以置信的利潤，這將改善我們的產量狀況，但也有無 APCD 成本。

So all in all, we feel very good. And I think it's important to just stress that my comment on the earnings side was that we expected to at least start with a $9. And not only that, we also expect to continue to improve on an ROIC basis on the overall organization.

所以總而言之，我們感覺非常好。我認為重要的是要強調我對收益方面的評論是我們預計至少從 9 美元開始。不僅如此，我們還期望在整個組織的ROIC基礎上繼續改進。

And then again, as we kind of think about next year. Clearly, there's a lot of disruption going on with Israel right now. And I think Naf talked about it's less than -- or you talked about that's less than 1.5% of capacity for next year. But as we think about the rest of the Med, just maybe how you guys are thinking about customer demand for the rest of Europe next year. And obviously, it's probably a little bit too early to really understand that. But do you expect to see some kind of pullback whether it's Eastern Med, Western Med or a combination of both? Or have you pretty much kind of moved your ships and your capacity around enough where you don't think there really will be much pushback from your customer base?

再說一遍，我們在思考明年。顯然，以色列現在正面臨許多幹擾。我認為 Naf 談到了低於——或者你談到了低於明年產能的 1.5%。但當我們考慮地中海其他地區時，也許你們會如何考慮明年歐洲其他地區的客戶需求。顯然，現在真正理解這一點可能還為時過早。但您是否期望看到某種回調，無論是東方醫學、西方醫學還是兩者的結合？或者你已經將你的船隻和運力轉移到足夠的地方，你認為你的客戶群不會真的有太多阻力？

Well, next year, we'll have a little bit less capacity in Europe. About half of our guests for European sailings come from the U.S. and the other half come from around the world. We commented on the 1.5%, and we'll continue to look at that. I think we need to remember, we have a pretty nimble sourcing platform if we're worried about that risk.

明年，我們在歐洲的產能將會減少一些。我們在歐洲航行的乘客中約有一半來自美國，另一半來自世界各地。我們對 1.5% 進行了評論，我們將繼續關注這一點。我認為我們需要記住，如果我們擔心這種風險，我們有一個非常靈活的採購平台。

I do think it's a little bit too early in all of this to have any kind of outlook on what we're seeing or expectations for Europe next year. But our commentary around the strength and the acceleration in demand is not just about one market, it's really about all of our markets. It's not just about one product, it's really about all of our products.

我確實認為現在對我們所看到的情況或對明年歐洲的期望進行任何展望還為時過早。但我們對需求的強勁和加速的評論不僅僅是針對一個市場，而是針對我們所有的市場。這不僅僅是關於一種產品，而是關於我們所有的產品。

And obviously, if these horrific situation continues to occur, that could potentially weigh on a consumer psyche, but that's not something that we're seeing at this point in time. And historically, when we see that, we typically just see our guests shift in terms of where they want to go. And of course, the vast majority of our capacity in 2024 is going to be in North America.

顯然，如果這些可怕的情況繼續發生，可能會對消費者的心理造成壓力，但這不是我們目前看到的情況。從歷史上看，當我們看到這一點時，我們通常只是看到我們的客人改變了他們想去的地方。當然，到 2024 年，我們的絕大多數產能將位於北美。

And sorry, Jason, one more. Just to be 100% clear, your cost guidance for the remainder of this year is unchanged from an APCD -- I mean, essentially all that's happening here is just the APCDs are dropping?

抱歉，傑森，再來一張。 100% 明確地說，你們今年剩餘時間的成本指導與 APCD 沒有變化——我的意思是，基本上這裡發生的一切只是 APCD 下降？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的羅賓法利 (Robin Farley)。

My two questions are actually on the same two topics. One is just circling back to changes with -- I know you mentioned it's only that 1.5% that touches on. I think there are some out there where it's a tiny, but it's still obviously just single digit for all the major companies. But are you seeing any ships where -- not necessarily your ships, but other ships moving into your markets? I know if it's just a port of [call] getting dropped, you wouldn't have to redo an itinerary. But if there are ships moving in where you have existing supply that you're seeing any kind of impact? Or would you say that you're still continuing to see demand for Europe next year at the same level, kind of regardless of what's going on with other shipments?

我的兩個問題實際上是關於相同的兩個主題。一個只是回到變化——我知道你提到只有那 1.5% 涉及到。我認為有些公司的數字很小，但對所有大公司來說顯然仍然只是個位數。但是您是否看到任何船舶——不一定是您的船舶，而是其他船舶進入您的市場？我知道如果只是一個[停靠]港口被取消，您就不必重做行程。但是，如果有船隻駛入您擁有現有供應的地方，您會看到任何影響嗎？或者您會說，無論其他發貨情況如何，明年歐洲的需求仍將保持在同一水平？

I would probably just start off, Robin, with how you started that off, which is at least from what we can tell, this is pretty low single digit, personal of capacity of not just us, but also our competitors have a little bit more than we do. And I think a shift of that magnitude is pretty immaterial. So if a ship is moving further maybe into the Eastern Med in terms of heading West or it's heading into the Western Mediterranean or some change in -- modified in the deployment, it's a pretty immaterial shift for the broader industry.

羅賓，我可能會從你如何開始這一點開始，至少從我們可以看出，這是相當低的個位數，不僅是我們個人的能力，而且我們的競爭對手也有更多的能力比我們多。我認為這種程度的轉變是相當無關緊要的。因此，如果一艘船進一步向西駛入東地中海，或者駛向西地中海，或者在部署上進行一些修改，那麼對於更廣泛的行業來說，這是一個相當無關緊要的轉變。

And I think for us, I mean, just our commentary about first to cruise, first to brand, the power we're getting out of our ecosystem and our loyalty base that's not -- we are actually much, much more focused on how do we close the gap to land-based vacation, then we think that things like small ships like this would impact our business.

我認為對我們來說，我的意思是，我們對首先巡航、首先品牌、我們從生態系統中獲得的力量以及我們的忠誠度基礎的評論不是——我們實際上更關注如何我們縮小了與陸上度假的差距，然後我們認為像這樣的小型船舶之類的東西會影響我們的業務。

And then just on the expense piece for next year. It was very helpful. Thank you for sort of breaking out say, I don't know if there's any further breakout of the dry dock and what that piece is of the 300 basis points just because in some ways, the timing of that is sort of you have a nonrecurring kind of increase. So I don't know if there's any more breakdown on that 300 bps.

然後只是明年的費用部分。這非常有幫助。謝謝你的突破，我不知道乾船塢是否會進一步突破，也不知道 300 個基點的具體內容是什麼，因為在某些方面，這個時機有點像你有一個非經常性的突破。種增加。所以我不知道這 300 bps 是否還有更多細分。

And then if there's any way to sort of help quantify, I know you're not giving full year yield guidance. But to whatever degree there is some bps there of expense from Hideaway. What you would expect the offsetting, I would think you would clearly be more than offsetting that. So just to sort of help investors think about what's really ongoing here, which is, I guess, probably closer to the 100 bps range.

然後，如果有任何方法可以幫助量化，我知道您不會給出全年收益率指引。但無論在何種程度上，神仙珊瑚島都會產生一些費用。你所期望的抵消，我認為你顯然不僅僅是抵消它。所以只是為了幫助投資者思考這裡真正發生的事情，我猜，這可能更接近 100 個基點的範圍。

Hi Robin, it's Naftali. So just on the cost, so as I mentioned, roughly 300 basis points related to dry docks and Hideaway, the vast majority. So think about like 80% of it is the dry docks and the remainder is really about Hideaway Beach. It's a nice way to ask it again, but I'll just say what Jason said, we're very excited about next year. Our formula, we always strive to drive and grow yields more than cost. And definitely, that's what we're intending to do next year.

嗨，羅賓，我是納夫塔利。因此，正如我所提到的，就成本而言，大約 300 個基點與乾船塢和 Hideaway 相關，其中絕大多數。因此，想想 80% 的區域是乾船塢，其餘的區域實際上是 Hideaway Beach。這是再次提問的好方法，但我只想說傑森所說的，我們對明年感到非常興奮。我們的公式是，我們始終努力提高產量並使其成長超過成本。當然，這就是我們明年打算做的事情。

I have to jump in for a second. It's Michael. Just to update you on Hideaway because I was there last weekend, and I have to tell you, we are incredibly impressed it's a spectacular new destination for Royal Caribbean. And we opened for sale for this one product about 3 weeks ago, and it's going gangbusters. I mean, we're delighted with the product. It's going to be really a game changer and the demand has been exceptional. We've already started pushing up the pricing for that experience.

我必須插進去一下。是麥可。只是向您介紹一下關於世外桃源的最新情況，因為我上週末去過那裡，我必須告訴您，我們對它印象深刻，這是皇家加勒比的一個壯觀的新目的地。大約三週前，我們開始銷售這款產品，而且銷售量非常火爆。我的意思是，我們對這個產品很滿意。這將真正改變遊戲規則，而且需求非常巨大。我們已經開始提高這種體驗的價格。

And of course, all of that comes online with Icon of the Seas, which is by far the best-selling product we've ever launched in the history of our business, and it continues to perform at an exceptionally high level.

當然，所有這些都透過海洋圖標號實現，這是迄今為止我們在業務歷史上推出的最暢銷產品，並且它繼續保持著異常高的水平。

So the combo of Icon with Hideaway is really for us exceptionally exciting. And then, of course, we've got Utopia going straight into the shorts market, to Perfect Day in the summer. And that, again, is already selling at record rates, and record volume. So we're kind of pretty switched on about what's happening in the next year in '24.

所以 Icon 與 Hideaway 的組合對我們來說確實非常令人興奮。當然，我們也讓 Utopia 直接進軍短褲市場，推出夏季的 Perfect Day。而且，這已經再次以創紀錄的價格和數量銷售。所以我們對明年 24 世紀發生的事情非常感興趣。

Your next question will come from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

您的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾（Brandt Montour）。

Congratulations on a strong report. I think I'll take a shot at the second part of the 2024 cost comments from you Naf. I think when we think about very low single digits, that's pretty cut and dry, and we all know your history of what you were doing pre-COVID on the cost line.

恭喜您獲得了一份強而有力的報告。我想我會嘗試一下你 Naf 提出的 2024 年成本評論的第二部分。我認為，當我們考慮非常低的個位數時，這是相當簡單的，而且我們都知道您在新冠疫情之前在成本線上所做的事情的歷史。

When we think about what is in there, though, right, there's China, and then there's Icon. I would think Icon is -- push it down, right? Because of all the APCDs that come along with Icon. But China, I would expect to have a rollout of more sort of cost base over there? How should we sort of think about those two factors when we try and model very low single digits?

不過，當我們思考其中的內容時，沒錯，首先是中國，然後是 Icon。我認為 Icon 是——把它推下來，對嗎？因為 Icon 附帶了所有 APCD。但在中國，我希望在那裡推出更多類型的成本基礎？當我們嘗試對非常低的個位數進行建模時，我們應該如何考慮這兩個因素？

Yes. I just think there's other things, too, right? First of all, Icon actually is -- there's a lot of venues on it. So yes, there's a lot of APCDs, but we also offer a lot of experiences on board. And you're right, China is a market that we're coming back. And obviously, we're not there today, we're just ramping up. But there's a lot of things that are going into it. And the commentary is we manage our cost across the board and we are very comfortable with the very low single digits as we go into next year.

是的。我只是覺得還有其他事情，對吧？首先，Icon 實際上是——上面有很多場館。所以，是的，有很多 APCD，但我們也提供很多機上體驗。你是對的，中國是我們要回歸的市場。顯然，我們今天還沒有達到目標，我們只是在加速。但其中涉及很多事情。評論是我們全面管理我們的成本，我們對進入明年的非常低的個位數感到非常滿意。

And Brandt, it's Jason. I just want to add in. Obviously, our capacity is growing at 8% next year. And so that's certainly helping making sure we're getting more and more efficient, which is a critical objective of the organization.

布蘭特，是傑森。我只是想補充一下。顯然，明年我們的產能將成長 8%。因此，這肯定有助於確保我們變得越來越高效，這是組織的關鍵目標。

We're also beginning very much to benefit from new disruptive technology and employing them in different parts of our business that can lower service calls and improve process efficiencies. And that's kind of an overall objective is how do we get better each and every year. And that's why we believe that excluding the dry docks and Hideaway, which are structural, we were able to continue to produce low single-digit costs -- sorry, very low single digits, yes, Naf just reminded me.

我們也開始從新的顛覆性技術中獲益匪淺，並將其應用於我們業務的不同部分，從而減少服務呼叫並提高流程效率。總體目標是我們如何每年都變得更好。這就是為什麼我們相信，除了結構性的乾船塢和世外桃源之外，我們能夠繼續產生較低的個位數成本——抱歉，非常低的個位數成本，是的，納夫剛剛提醒我。

And then just as a follow-up, the $9 starting point for the EPS figure tells us a lot, obviously. Just to get a sense of getting your guys' heads when you are in your budget process and you're thinking about that figure. Do you think you're starting at $9 in any current economic environment? Or do you think you're starting at $9 in the current economic environment?

接下來，EPS 數據的 9 美元起點顯然告訴了我們很多。只是為了讓大家在預算過程中思考這個數字時能夠頭腦清醒。您認為在當前的經濟環境下您的起始價是 9 美元嗎？或者您認為在當前的經濟環境下您的起始價是 9 美元嗎？

So I think one of the things I would say, Brandt, is that we're saying it's going to start with -- that it will at least start with the $9. So I wouldn't necessarily peg it to $9, it's just that we're seeing at a $9 handle, which I think is just an important thing.

所以，布蘭特，我認為我要說的一件事是，我們說它將至少從 9 美元開始。所以我不一定會把它固定在 9 美元，只是我們看到的是 9 美元的手柄，我認為這是一件重要的事情。

And obviously, it's impossible to predict what the environment will look like 6 months from now or a year from now or 5 years from now. But we have a pretty nimble platform. There is a significant value proposition or value differential to land-based vacation. Pre-COVID, we were, call it, 10% or 15%. Today, we're somewhere around 35%, 40%. So there's a lot of value for the consumer to get if there are changes the operating theaters that we're in.

顯然，不可能預測 6 個月後、一年後或 5 年後的環境會是什麼樣子。但我們有一個非常靈活的平台。與陸上度假相比，存在顯著的價值主張或價值差異。在新冠疫情之前，我們稱之為 10% 或 15%。今天，我們的比例約為 35%、40%。因此，如果我們所在的手術室發生變化，消費者可以獲得許多價值。

I would also keep in mind that we're pretty well booked, and we will cross this year in a very strong booked position. And so we will have a lot of that already on our books, the consumer has already made those decisions. But I will say, which I think is an important thing when we look at the consumer, is as we're here on the call, we have thousands of people making bookings for experiences that are at least 6 to 8 months from today. They're making bookings into 2025, they're even making bookings into 2026. So our visibility in terms of how the consumer is looking at things going forward, at least on a vacation experience on our incredible brands, is pretty good based off of where the consumer is standing today.

我還要記住，我們的預訂情況非常好，今年我們將以非常強大的預訂位置跨越。因此，我們的書中已經有很多內容，消費者已經做出了這些決定。但我要說的是，當我們專注於消費者時，我認為很重要的一點是，當我們接到電話時，我們有成千上萬的人預訂了從今天起至少6 到8 個月的體驗。他們的預訂到 2025 年，甚至到 2026 年。因此，我們對消費者如何看待未來的事情（至少在我們令人難以置信的品牌的度假體驗方面）的可見性非常好，基於消費者今天所處的位置。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究中心的 Vince Ciepiel。

Big picture question. Curious your perspective on the supply/demand kind of dynamic in this industry over the next few years, what you're seeing in the order book, and then on the demand side, it seems like you and some peers as well are really seeing strong performance out of the new to cruise. So what that could mean for the trajectory of demand growth in years ahead as well.

大局問題。好奇您對未來幾年該行業供需動態的看法，您在訂單簿中看到的情況，然後在需求方面，您和一些同行似乎確實看到了強勁的勢頭性能出新遊輪。那麼這對未來幾年的需求成長軌跡也意味著什麼。

So on the order book side, at least what we can see kind of five years out here is the industry is going to grow on a gross basis around 4%, it could potentially be a little bit lighter that if there's going to be some potential more exits over time. That's not a number that can really be changed at this point in time. And we really haven't seen a lot of new orders come on the books as of late. So I think we have a pretty good view on the supply side.

因此，在訂單方面，至少我們可以看到，未來五年，該行業的總成長率將在 4% 左右，如果有一些潛力，那麼成長幅度可能會小一些。隨著時間的推移，會有更多的退出。這個數字目前還無法真正改變。到目前為止，我們確實沒有看到很多新訂單出現。所以我認為我們對供應方面有很好的看法。

I think when we think about on the demand side, I don't think it's just new to cruise. I mean, new to cruise has been very strong us being indexed more into the short, brings in a lot more new to cruise. But I also think the point about new to brand, I think, has really significantly grown coming here out of COVID, which we think is another strength. And then I think our point about how focused we are about getting more reps out of our guests through loyalty, through having a recognition of our kind of family of brands, we think is also really strong.

我認為，當我們考慮需求方面時，我認為這對郵輪來說並不新鮮。我的意思是，郵輪的新手非常強大，我們被更多地索引到短片中，為郵輪帶來了更多的新鮮事。但我也認為，由於新冠疫情，新品牌的重要性確實顯著成長，我們認為這是另一個優勢。然後我認為我們的觀點是，我們非常注重透過忠誠度、透過​​對我們品牌家族的認可來從我們的客人那裡獲得更多的代表，我們認為這也非常強大。

And the last point I'll make is, I know we really focus these conversations on the industry, but I really think we need more and more focus the conversation on land -- or just overall vacation experiences. The cruise industry is a flavor of overall vacation and travel and leisure, 1% shift towards cruise is worth, I think it's like 10 or 11 Oasis-class ships.

我要說的最後一點是，我知道我們確實將這些對話集中在行業上，但我真的認為我們需要越來越多地將對話集中在陸地上，或者只是整體度假體驗。郵輪產業是一個整體度假和旅遊休閒的味道，1%的轉向郵輪是值得的，我認為就像10或11艘綠洲級船一樣。

So we're focused on how do we continue to be more competitive with land. And we're seeing that with the younger generations who really look at us very much similar to how they look to go to Orlando or Vegas or skiing, et cetera. And if we can close that gap, we can close half of that gap and get back to where we were, that's also worth probably about 10 Oasis-class ships. So we're heavily focused on trying to do that.

因此，我們關注的是如何繼續在土地方面更具競爭力。我們看到，年輕一代對我們的看法與他們去奧蘭多、維加斯或滑雪等地的看法非常相似。如果我們能夠縮小這個差距，我們就可以縮小一半的差距並回到原來的水平，這也相當於大約 10 艘綠洲級艦艇。所以我們非常專注於嘗試做到這一點。

Great. And then just digging a little bit deeper into this year on the yield side, I think you started around to 2% to 4% or something like that and now you're looking for yield up about 13%. So kind of two parts. What's been the biggest positive surprise that has led to that? And then how would you slice up that 13-ish percent growth in terms of new hardware contribution, CocoCay and core price?

偉大的。然後，在收益率方面更深入地研究今年，我認為您一開始的收益率約為 2% 至 4% 或類似水平，現在您正在尋求收益率上升約 13%。分為兩部分。導致這結果的最大正面驚喜是什麼？那麼，就新硬體貢獻、CocoCay 和核心價格而言，您將如何分割 13% 左右的成長？

What you're really seeing across the board, right, onboard spend is meaningfully higher than we expected. Demand for our new ships is certainly there. But of course, that would have been in our original guidance for the year, our expectations on that. And then like-for-like is up significantly.

您真正看到的是，船上支出明顯高於我們的預期。對我們新船的需求肯定是存在的。但當然，這將是我們今年最初的指導和我們對此的期望。然後同類產品顯著上升。

So it's not one thing, I think there's been really starting in the wave of this year. Demand for our brands has been at an exceptional level. Demand for ships going to places like Perfect Day have been at exceptional levels and has put us in a position to be able to continue to increase rate bringing us closer to that value gap that's out there versus land-based vacation. Now I think keep in mind, like crews kind of lagged everybody else coming back from COVID. And so I think we're also benefiting from that.

所以這不是一回事，我認為今年的浪潮確實已經開始了。對我們品牌的需求一直處於非常高的水平。前往 Perfect Day 等地的船舶的需求一直處於異常水平，這使我們能夠繼續提高運費，使我們更接近與陸上度假相比的價值差距。現在我想請記住，就像從新冠病毒回來的工作人員有點落後於其他人一樣。所以我認為我們也從中受益。

Your next question will come from the line of Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

I was wondering if you could talk maybe a little bit about pricing trends and maybe the difference between contemporary and luxury brands and what you're seeing? And similarly, as we think about Europe and next year, I know it's only 15% of your capacity but you're coming off a pretty strong year. Obviously, that skews a little bit more luxury. And then as we think about consumer willingness to book a European or Mediterranean cruise, any kind of thoughts as we should think about 2024 as it relates to those kind of two subsegments?

我想知道您是否可以談談定價趨勢以及當代品牌和奢侈品牌之間的差異以及您所看到的？同樣，當我們考慮歐洲和明年時，我知道這只是你們產能的 15%，但你們今年的表現相當強勁。顯然，這會帶來更多的奢華。然後，當我們考慮消費者預訂歐洲或地中海遊輪的意願時，我們應該考慮 2024 年與這兩個細分市場相關的任何想法嗎？

Sure. Well, at least in terms of what we've been experiencing is there's been strong demand on a pricing standpoint whether it's contemporary, whether it's in the premium space, luxury or expedition space. I think there's been a little, I would say, more elevated demand that we have seen, especially for Royal and ships, especially going to Perfect Day has been at an elevated level.

當然。嗯，至少就我們所經歷的情況而言，無論是現代、高端空間、豪華空間或探險空間，對定價的需求都非常強烈。我認為，我們已經看到了一些更高的需求，特別是對於皇家和船舶，尤其是去完美日的需求已經處於較高水平。

But the yield improvement that you've seen through the course of this year, which is significant, has really been across all of our brands. And I'd also add that our load factor expectations also rose to the course of this year. We returned to normal load factors much earlier than we had anticipated for that.

但今年以來，我們所有品牌的產量都得到了顯著的改善。我還要補充一點，今年我們的載客率預期也有所上升。我們恢復正常負載率的時間比我們預期的要早得多。

You are right that on the European side, it does skew a little bit more on the premium and luxury side of things. But I think we think overall, at least what we have seen demand pattern-wise, that continues to be very strong. And we typically as we start to get towards the end of this year and early January is when we start to really see the elevation in European bookings as it gets into that 6- to 8-month booking window, which is what we have historically seen.

你是對的，在歐洲方面，它確實更偏向高端和奢侈品方面。但我認為我們認為總體而言，至少從我們所看到的需求模式來看，這種需求仍然非常強勁。通常，當我們開始接近今年年底和一月初時，我們開始真正看到歐洲預訂量的上升，因為它進入了 6 到 8 個月的預訂窗口，這是我們歷史上看到的。

And I'll just add something that also across the markets, what we've seen this year is pretty strong demand. Caribbean, as we said, has been strong all along, but we were very, very pleased with the summer season in Europe, right, with double-digit yield growth.

我還要補充一點，在整個市場上，我們今年看到的需求相當強大。正如我們所說，加勒比地區一直都很強勁，但我們對歐洲夏季的產量成長感到非常非常滿意，對吧，產量增加了兩位數。

Got it. And then pivoting to China a bit. I know you don't have full capacity having a return that yet there relative to 2019. But as you think about the Baltic capacity coming off Eastern Med, is there a willingness or maybe incentive at this point to shift more of your capacity to China? And maybe can you just give an update on demand trends there?

知道了。然後稍微轉向中國。我知道相對於 2019 年，你們還沒有獲得全部產能的回報。但是當你想到來自東部地中海的波羅的海產能時，目前是否有意願或可能有動力將更多產能轉移到中國？也許您可以提供一下需求趨勢的最新情況嗎？

Dan, it's Michael. We have a China product Spectrum selling out of Shanghai in April of next year. And so far, the bookings, both volume and rate. Very good, much better than our '19 performance, which, of course, was a record for the brand. So we're feeling quite optimistic about the China product.

丹，是麥可。我們的中國產品 Spectrum 將於明年 4 月在上海銷售。到目前為止，預訂量和預訂率都是如此。非常好，比我們 19 年的表現要好得多，這當然是該品牌的記錄。所以我們對中國產品非常樂觀。

I'm not sure there's any need to shift any capacity at this point from the Baltic or from the Eastern Med. So I think we're in a good position with our China product. We'll be one of the first Western brands operating in China. And the indications are very positive. So we'll see how it goes for next year.

我不確定目前是否有必要從波羅的海或東地中海轉移任何產能。所以我認為我們的中國產品處於有利地位。我們將成為首批在中國營運的西方品牌之一。跡象非常積極。所以我們會看看明年的情況如何。

Your next question will come from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

So Jason, maybe on the accelerating demand, the book position and the pricing relative to prior years as you cited as we look to '24. I guess, maybe larger picture, how are you balancing pricing power relative to the multiyear market share opportunity relative to land-based alternatives? And then just in the strength in bookings that you cited, have you seen any near-term moderation to note related to the recent overseas conflicts?

所以傑森，也許是因為需求加速、圖書位置和相對於前幾年的定價，正如您在我們展望 24 世紀時所引用的那樣。我想，也許從更大的角度來看，您如何平衡相對於陸基替代品的多年市場份額機會的定價能力？然後，就您提到的預訂量而言，您是否看到與最近的海外衝突相關的任何近期放緩？

Yes, sure. So we feel -- of course, they're always getting better that we have the best kind of yield management systems and the best revenue managers in the world. And so they are very much looking at volume versus price. And we have significantly automated that using AI and so forth to be able to make sure that we have an understanding on the elasticity and the behaviors of the consumer minute by minute. And so what we do try to do is obviously continue to increase price and then build volumes.

是的，當然。所以我們覺得——當然，他們總是變得更好，因為我們擁有世界上最好的收益管理系統和最好的收益經理。因此，他們非常關注數量與價格。我們已經使用人工智慧等技術實現了顯著自動化，以確保我們每時每刻都了解消費者的彈性和行為。因此，我們所做的顯然是繼續提高價格，然後增加銷量。

And historically, there's been questions about on the book position. You plan to be at the same level when you turn the year as previous years. You want to be higher, you want to be lower. The answer really is, it all depends on our ability to continue to drive pricing and then optimizing our yields. And so optimizing our yields is key. And of course, we're -- and these yield management tools, we're also very focused on what we're seeing in behavior on the [WAN-basefication] side.

從歷史上看，這本書的位置一直存在疑問。您計劃在新年到來時保持與往年相同的水平。你想要更高，你想要更低。答案確實是，這完全取決於我們繼續推動定價並優化產量的能力。因此，優化我們的產量是關鍵。當然，我們以及這些收益管理工具也非常關注我們在 [WAN 基礎化] 方面的行為。

Going on the European side, I think, again, we're just coming out of the Europe season, and we're beginning to book for next year, trends continue to be very strong. But it is early in the European season for us to start calling out that there's no impact from Israel. It's not something that we're seeing today, and of course, we don't know how long this war, conflict is going to go on for, which could very much inform where the consumer wants to go next year.

在歐洲方面，我想，我們剛結束歐洲季節，我們開始為明年預訂，趨勢仍然非常強勁。但在歐洲賽季初期，我們開始呼籲以色列不會產生影響。這不是我們今天看到的情況，當然，我們不知道這場戰爭、衝突會持續多久，這可能會很大程度上決定消費者明年想要去哪裡。

I think what's important is what we're getting is a very sticky consumer who wants to be sailing with us, staying within our ecosystem. And so sometimes it's not a question of where they're going to go. It could be a question of where they're going to go, but they're going to go somewhere with us, and that's what we're focused on making sure they're doing.

我認為重要的是我們得到的是一個非常黏性的消費者，他們想與我們一起航行，並留在我們的生態系統中。所以有時這不是他們要去哪裡的問題。這可能是他們要去哪裡的問題，但他們會和我們一起去某個地方，這就是我們專注於確保他們所做的事情。

Great. And then maybe just a follow-up. Naftali, on the EBITDA margin profile as we think multiyear, and just looking back to prior peak levels, how would you size up where we stand today relative to the Trifecta plan, which I think calls for low 30s? Just maybe as we think about the puts and takes as you see it today.

偉大的。然後也許只是後續行動。 Naftali，就我們多年來認為的 EBITDA 利潤率狀況而言，回顧之前的峰值水平，您如何評估我們今天相對於 Trifecta 計劃的立場，我認為該計劃要求低 30 多歲？或許就像我們今天所看到的看跌期權和看跌期權一樣。

Yes. So I think I said it in my prepared remarks, but our goal, first of all, is to obviously increase the profitability as we continue to grow the business. But this year, we will be back basically to our margin that we had in 2019, which was a record year. But if you kind of do the math, we're not yet in our Trifecta goal. And by the way, Trifecta for us is just base camp, right? So we -- our ambitions are beyond that. So that just leads you to -- and our ambitions are to continue to grow the margin much more than we had in 2019, and that will go through with our proven formula, right? We continue to grow the business, to capacity growth, moderate year growth, and really strong control cost controls and disciplined capital allocation, we think will deliver more margin.

是的。所以我想我在準備好的發言中已經說過了，但我們的目標首先是隨著我們繼續發展業務，明顯提高盈利能力。但今年，我們的利潤率將基本恢復到 2019 年的水平，2019 年是創紀錄的一年。但如果你算一下，我們還沒有達成「三連勝」目標。順便說一句，Trifecta 對我們來說只是大本營，對吧？所以我們——我們的野心不止於此。因此，這只是引導您 - 我們的目標是繼續將利潤率提高到比 2019 年更高的水平，這將透過我們經過驗證的公式實現，對吧？我們繼續發展業務，實現產能成長、適度的年度成長，以及真正強有力的成本控制和嚴格的資本配置，我們認為將帶來更多的利潤。

With that, I'll turn the conference back over to Naftali Holtz, CFO, for closing remarks.

接下來，我將把會議轉交財務長納夫​​塔利‧霍爾茨 (Naftali Holtz) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you. We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Michael will be available for any follow-up. I wish you all a great day.

謝謝。我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的興趣。邁克爾將參與任何後續行動。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。