皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Group's Business Update and First Quarter 2021 Earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫謝爾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時，我謹歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團的業務更新和 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jason Liberty. Mr. Liberty, the floor is yours.

現在我想介紹一下財務長 Jason Liberty 先生。自由先生，請發言。

Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us today for our business update and first quarter earnings call. Joining me are Richard Fain, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Carola Mengolini, our Vice President of Investor Relations. This is actually Carola's last call with us that she is retiring. And I just want to sincerely thank her for all of her efforts, and we all really wish her the very best with lots of love. So thank you, Carola.

謝謝你，謝爾比。大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的業務更新和第一季財報電話會議。與我一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長理查費恩 (Richard Fain)；貝利 (Michael Bayley)，皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁卡羅拉‧門戈里尼 (Carola Mengolini)。這其實是卡羅拉最後一次打電話告訴我們她即將退休。我只想真誠地感謝她所做的一切努力，我們都真心希望她一切都好，充滿愛。謝謝你，卡羅拉。

During this call, we will be referring to a few slides, which have been posted on our investor website, www.rclinvestor.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考幾張投影片，這些投影片已發佈在我們的投資者網站 www.rclinvestor.com 上。

Before we get started, I would like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements, which is on our first slide. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking. These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties. Examples are described in our SEC filings and other disclosures. Please note that we do not undertake to update the information in our filing as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial -- non-GAAP historical items can be found on our website.

在我們開始之前，我想請您參閱我們關於前瞻性陳述的通知，該通知位於我們的第一張投影片上。在這次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性評論。這些陳述並不保證未來的業績，並且確實涉及風險和不確定性。我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他揭露的資訊中描述了範例。請注意，我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新我們備案中的信息。此外，我們還將討論某些按定義進行調整的非公認會計原則財務指標，以及非公認會計原則財務的調節表——非公認會計原則歷史項目可以在我們的網站上找到。

Richard will begin the call by providing a strategic overview of the business, an update on the latest news from the CDC. I will follow-up with a recap of our first quarter results, and then I will then provide an update on our latest liquidity actions and on the current booking environment. We will then open up the call for your questions. Richard?

理查德將在電話會議開始時提供業務策略概述以及 CDC 的最新消息更新。我將回顧我們第一季的業績，然後提供有關我們最新流動性行動和當前預訂環境的最新資訊。然後我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。理查德？

Thank you, Jason, and thank you all for joining the call. And thank you, Carola, for your help and consistent support over many years with Royal Caribbean. You all know it's been painful to pass the 1-year mark since we suspended sailings in March of 2020 and to keep seeing most of our beautiful ship still sitting in anchor. However, I'd like to comment on some of the dramatic positive elements that we've just mentioned.

謝謝傑森，也感謝大家加入這通通話。感謝卡羅拉多年來對皇家加勒比的幫助和一貫支持。你們都知道，自從我們在 2020 年 3 月暫停航行以來已經過去了 1 年，並且仍然看到我們美麗的船的大部分仍然停泊在錨地，這是令人痛苦的。然而，我想對我們剛才提到的一些戲劇性的積極因素發表評論。

The big change has been a significant improvement in the extent and the quality of our dialogue with the CDC. As I have said elsewhere, scientific knowledge does not advance well in the vacuum. More and better exchange of information and more and better understanding of other perspectives always leads to a better and healthier outcome. The CDC has recently significantly increased its efforts in this regard. And we really appreciate, and we would like to -- for undertaking this important effort.

最大的變化是我們與疾病預防控制中心對話的程度和品質有了顯著提高。正如我在其他地方所說的，科學知識在真空中無法取得很好的進展。更多更好的資訊交流以及更多更好地理解其他觀點總是會帶來更好、更健康的結果。疾管中心近期大幅加大了這方面的力道。我們非常感謝並且願意——做出這項重要的努力。

Last night, the CDC issued multiple very constructive clarifications and amplifications of its conditional sail order. They've addressed many of the items that concerned us in the order, in a manner that takes into account the recent advances in vaccines and medical science. We believe that this communication really helps us to see a clear and achievable pathway forward to a safe and healthy cruising in the near future. But an important caveat is that this is a very complex area, and we only received the letter last night. Furthermore, there are still a great many details to be provided in the future and others that need to be resolved.

昨晚，疾病預防控制中心對其有條件航行命令發布了多項非常有建設性的澄清和擴展。他們以考慮到疫苗和醫學科學最新進展的方式解決了訂單中我們關心的許多問題。我們相信，這種溝通確實有助於我們在不久的將來看到一條清晰且可實現的安全健康航行之路。但一個重要的警告是，這是一個非常複雜的領域，我們昨晚才收到這封信。此外，還有很多細節需要日後提供，還有很多問題需要解決。

We need to be cautious about all of those. Nevertheless, we now have high hopes that if these details can be resolved quickly, it could be possible to restart cruising by mid-July. I would also emphasize that the restart does not mean that we will immediately go into full operation. While we are hopeful about restarting, that restart will be gradual and deliberate. Furthermore, our business looks long in advance. So it will take some time for the machinery to get back into full swing. But the letter is a very constructive part of this process. And it indicates both the value of good communications and indicates the CDC's desire to see cruising reopen in a safe and healthy manner.

我們需要對所有這些保持謹慎。儘管如此，我們現在還是抱著很大的希望，如果這些細節能夠迅速解決，那麼到7月中旬就有可能重新開始巡航。我還要強調的是，重啟並不代表我們會立即全面投入營運。雖然我們對重啟充滿希望，但重啟將是漸進的、深思熟慮的。此外，我們的業務目光長遠。因此，機器需要一段時間才能恢復全速運轉。但這封信是這過程中非常有建設性的一部分。它既表明了良好溝通的價值，也表明了疾病預防控制中心希望看到巡航以安全和健康的方式重新開放。

As I said before, we share a common goal in both the CDC and the cruise industry, are determined to do this right. One of our strongest discussion points in these meetings with the CDC has been the data that we've collected from our cruises in Asia and Europe. As mentioned earlier, we have successfully carried over 125,000 passengers with only 21 COVID-19 cases, 21. That's a positivity rate of 0.01%. And as we've emphasized, all of this has been experienced without having the availability of vaccines.

正如我之前所說，我們疾病預防控制中心和郵輪產業有著共同的目標，決心做好這件事。在與疾病預防控制中心的這些會議中，我們最有力的討論點之一是我們從亞洲和歐洲的遊輪中收集的數據。如前所述，我們已成功運送了超過 125,000 名乘客，其中只有 21 例 COVID-19 病例，21。陽性率為 0.01%。正如我們所強調的，所有這一切都是在沒有疫苗的情況下經歷的。

Our goal throughout this pandemic is then to make a cruise ship where we can control the environment safer than Main Street USA. We've already demonstrated our ability to do that, and we are now eager to resume life as so many other businesses are doing. And we are pleased that the CDC letter really does reflect an intention to treat us similarly to other industries in similar circumstances.

在這場大流行期間，我們的目標是製造一艘比美國大街更安全的遊輪，我們可以控制環境。我們已經證明了我們有能力做到這一點，現在我們渴望像許多其他企業一樣恢復正常生活。我們很高興疾管中心的信函確實反映出我們在類似情況下與其他行業一樣對待我們的意圖。

In addition to this particularly positive development in the U.S., there are other activities going on. For example, last month, Odyssey of the Seas, our newest quantum class ship, joined the Royal Caribbean International fleet. Along the Celebrity Apex and Silversea Silver Moon, we now have 3 brand-new ships each with the most amazing technology to ensure safety, security and, of course, unbelievable guest experiences.

除了美國的這一特別積極的發展之外，還有其他活動正在進行中。例如，上個月，我們最新的量子級船舶「海洋奧德賽號」加入了皇家加勒比國際船隊。沿著 Celebrity Apex 和 Silversea Silver Moon，我們現在擁有 3 艘全新的郵輪，每艘都配備了最令人驚嘆的技術，以確保安全、安保，當然還有令人難以置信的賓客體驗。

And there has been such demand for our current sailings. For example, from Singapore and Quantum of the Seas that we've extended our season there now through the end of October. And, of course, we've also taken additional steps to strengthen our financial position even further, and you're going to hear more about that from Jason.

我們目前的航行也有這樣的需求。例如，我們已經將新加坡和海洋量子號的季節延長至十月底。當然，我們也採取了額外的措施來進一步加強我們的財務狀況，您將從傑森那裡聽到更多關於這方面的資訊。

Before I describe all the energy we see and feel it in the group, I want to acknowledge once again the dedication and hard work of our people. It's always been our people who have made us successful, and it's been our people that have gotten us through these past 13 months of living with COVID-19. Everyone has suffered during the pandemic, but working for cruise lines is the real test of endurance and trust and agility. Over and over, our people have passed that test.

在描述我們在團隊中看到和感受到的所有能量之前，我想再次感謝員工的奉獻和辛勤工作。始終是我們的員工讓我們取得了成功，也正是我們的員工幫助我們度過了過去 13 個月的 COVID-19 生活。疫情期間每個人都遭受了苦難，但在郵輪公司工作是對耐力、信任和敏捷性的真正考驗。我們的人民一次又一次地通過了這項考驗。

I'd like to also thank our investors and our travel partners who have been the strongest advocates with our guests over these months of uncertainty. We are also grateful of their commitment to work -- we are always grateful for their commitment to work with us.

我還要感謝我們的投資人和旅遊夥伴，在這充滿不確定性的幾個月裡，他們一直是我們客人最強大的支持者。我們也感謝他們對工作的承諾——我們始終感謝他們與我們合作的承諾。

While a lot of what we're doing right now is directed to a healthy return to service, we're also focusing on how we can strengthen our position in other areas, including on ESG, environmental, social and governmental responsibility. Of course, this focus isn't new for us. From our partnership with the World Wildlife fund, to support for sustainable destinations, to active engagement on diversity and inclusion, to aggressive emission reduction, our commitment to progress on the ESG agenda is long standing. But we believe strongly, and it's not enough to reflect on what we have been doing, we need to get ready for what's next and plan for how we will meet the challenges in the future. You'll hear more about this initiative in future calls, but I want to take this opportunity to make you aware of this intensified focus.

雖然我們現在所做的很多事情都是為了健康地恢復服務，但我們也專注於如何加強我們在其他領域的地位，包括 ESG、環境、社會和政府責任。當然，這種關注對我們來說並不新鮮。從我們與世界自然基金會的合作，到對永續目的地的支持，到積極參與多元化和包容性，再到積極減排，我們對 ESG 議程取得進展的承諾是長期的。但我們堅信，光是反思我們一直在做的事情是不夠的，我們需要為下一步做好準備，並規劃如何應對未來的挑戰。您將在以後的電話會議中聽到更多有關此舉措的信息，但我想藉此機會讓您意識到這一強化的關注。

And with that, I'll turn the microphone back to Jason. Jason?

然後，我會將麥克風轉回給傑森。傑森？

Thank you, Richard. Before I start, like Richard, I want to again thank our teams across the whole enterprise for their dedication and tireless efforts during these unprecedented times.

謝謝你，理查。在開始之前，像理查德一樣，我想再次感謝整個企業的團隊在這個前所未有的時期所做的奉獻和不懈努力。

I will now start to discuss our first quarter performance. This morning, we reported an adjusted net loss of $1.1 billion or $4.44 (sic) [S4.66] per share for the first quarter of 2021. While reporting these type of results continues to be painful, we are excited about the fact that little by little, the flywheel is starting to spin. Furthermore, the latest news by the CDC, as it relates to our resumption of service in the U.S., is quite encouraging.

我現在將開始討論我們第一季的業績。今天早上，我們報告2021 年第一季調整後淨虧損為11 億美元，即每股4.44 美元（原文如此）[S4.66]。雖然報告此類結果仍然令人痛苦，但我們感到興奮的是，幾乎沒有漸漸地，飛輪開始旋轉。此外，疾病預防控制中心發布的有關我們在美國恢復服務的最新消息非常令人鼓舞。

During the first quarter of 2021, we delivered memorable vacations to over 55,000 guests through our Royal Caribbean International, TUI cruises and Hapag-Lloyd brands. Moreover, our teams are diligently working on the health protocols and start-up activities needed to begin operations on an additional 11 ships this summer.

2021 年第一季度，我們透過皇家加勒比國際遊輪、途易遊輪和赫伯羅特品牌為超過 55,000 名客人帶來了難忘的假期。此外，我們的團隊正在努力製定今年夏天另外 11 艘船舶開始運作所需的健康協議和啟動活動。

While these activities are extremely encouraging, they also put some additional pressure on our cash burn in the short term. Having said this, we are also very encouraged by our customer deposit balance, which as of today, is approximately $2 billion compared to the $1.8 billion that was shared this morning related to the end of the first quarter.

雖然這些活動非常令人鼓舞，但它們也為我們短期內的現金消耗帶來了一些額外的壓力。話雖如此，我們也對我們的客戶存款餘額感到非常鼓舞，截至今天，客戶存款餘額約為 20 億美元，而今天早上分享的第一季末相關的存款餘額為 18 億美元。

Moreover, the latest balance reflects the reduction in deposits that related to the Azamara brand which was sold just a few months ago, demonstrating an even larger improvement versus our December '20 customer deposit balance. This improved balance has been disproportionately driven by new bookings versus the issuance of more FCCs. At this point, approximately 45% of our customer deposit balance is associated with FCCs versus about 50% at the time of our last call.

此外，最新的餘額反映了與幾個月前出售的 Azamara 品牌相關的存款減少，這表明與我們 20 年 12 月的客戶存款餘額相比，有了更大的改善。這種平衡的改善在很大程度上是由新預訂和更多 FCC 的發行推動的。目前，我們大約 45% 的客戶存款餘額與 FCC 相關，而我們上次致電時約為 50%。

Now I will shift my remarks to our liquidity actions during the quarter. As you all know, we pride ourselves on having industry-leading brands, with a world-class and highly innovative fleet and a history of strong financial discipline. These assets and attributes have been instrumental in helping us raise more than $12.3 billion in new capital since March of last year.

現在我將談談本季我們的流動性行動。眾所周知，我們為擁有行業領先的品牌、世界一流且高度創新的機隊以及嚴格的財務紀律的歷史而感到自豪。自去年 3 月以來，這些資產和特性幫助我們籌集了超過 123 億美元的新資本。

During the first quarter of 2021, we continued our efforts to enhance our liquidity position and manage our maturity profile. To this end, we successfully executed 2 capital raises with cumulative gross proceeds of $2 billion. Connected to this, we amended 2 debt facilities totaling approximately $2.5 billion, which were due in 2022 and extended the maturities for consenting lenders by 18 months.

2021 年第一季度，我們繼續努力增強流動性狀況並管理到期狀況。為此，我們成功進行了兩次融資，累計募集資金總額達20億美元。與此相關，我們修改了 2 項總計約 25 億美元的債務融資，這些債務融資將於 2022 年到期，並將同意貸款人的期限延長 18 個月。

I will highlight that since we are refinancing guaranteed debt with unsecured and unguaranteed debt, we are starting our journey back to an unencumbered investment-grade balance sheet. Altogether, during this quarter, we paid down approximately $800 million of debt related to principal on the amended facilities and the U.K. commercial paper programs that was due in March.

我要強調的是，由於我們正在用無擔保和無擔保債務為擔保債務進行再融資，因此我們正在開始回到無負擔的投資等級資產負債表。在本季度，我們總共償還了約 8 億美元的債務，這些債務與修改後的設施和 3 月份到期的英國商業票據計劃的本金有關。

Now as it pertains to the cash burn during the quarter, the average monthly cash burn was approximately $300 million, which was slightly higher than previously announced range. This was mainly driven by restart expenses, which were related to the new health protocols and some crew movements.

就本季的現金消耗而言，平均每月現金消耗約為 3 億美元，略高於先前公佈的範圍。這主要是由重啟費用驅動的，這與新的健康協議和一些船員流動有關。

It is important to note that previously announced range did not include any expenses that related to the restarting of operations as it assumed a status of prolonged suspension of operations. When excluding the return to service expenses, our cash burn was in line with our previously announced range.

值得注意的是，先前公佈的範圍不包括與重啟營運相關的任何費用，因為它假設處於長期暫停營運的狀態。當排除服務回報費用時，我們的現金消耗與我們先前宣布的範圍一致。

Overall, we closed the first quarter with $5.8 billion in available liquidity. As I previously mentioned, we are very encouraged with the latest news, current momentum and the restart of operations around the globe, but the environment remains extremely fluid. And for this reason, we are not providing a cash burn estimate or the related offsets generated by revenue and new customer deposits that come from returning ships.

總體而言，第一季末我們的可用流動資金為 58 億美元。正如我之前提到的，我們對最新消息、當前動能和全球營運的重啟感到非常鼓舞，但環境仍然極度不穩定。因此，我們沒有提供現金消耗估計或由返航船舶產生的收入和新客戶存款產生的相關抵消。

I will highlight that the burn rate for the ships that are kept in lay-up is expected to be consistent with our previous expectations on a relative basis. Now as it pertains to our debt maturities and in addition to the extensions of the 22 facilities that I previously mentioned, we also completed the amendments to our export credit facilities differing $1.15 billion of principal amortization and waiving financial covenants through at least the end of the third quarter of 2022.

我要強調的是，閒置船舶的燃燒率預計將與我們先前的相對預期一致。現在，由於涉及我們的債務到期日，除了我之前提到的22 項貸款的延期外，我們還完成了對出口信貸安排的修改，本金攤銷金額為11.5 億美元，並至少在2017 年末之前放棄財務契約。2022 年 第三季。

After all these negotiations, our scheduled debt maturities for the remainder of '21 and 2022 are $200 million and $2.2 billion, respectively.

經過所有這些談判後，我們在 21 年剩餘時間和 2022 年的預定債務期限分別為 2 億美元和 22 億美元。

I will now update you on our business outlook, as I know this is top of mind for many, and I'll start by providing an update on our summer capacity. Over the last 2 months, we have announced the returned to service for 9 ships across 3 -- our 3 global brands and have extended the Singapore season for Quantum of the Seas through the fall. These are 176 sailings in the Caribbean, Europe and Asia now represent 19% of our fleet capacity for the summer season. 6 of these ships will sail in Europe, offering Greek Isles and U.K. and our easter guests from the U.S., the U.K., Israel and Europe. These guests will have the opportunity to experience our 3 newest ships, Odyssey of the Seas, Celebrity Apex and the Silver Moon for the first time ever.

我現在將向您介紹我們的業務前景的最新情況，因為我知道這是許多人最關心的問題，我將首先介紹我們夏季產能的最新情況。在過去 2 個月裡，我們宣布 3 個全球品牌的 9 艘船恢復運營，並將海洋量子號的新加坡航線延長至秋季。目前，加勒比海、歐洲和亞洲的 176 趟航班占我們夏季船隊運力的 19%。其中 6 艘船將在歐洲航行，為希臘群島和英國以及來自美國、英國、以色列和歐洲的復活節客人提供服務。這些客人將有機會首次體驗我們的 3 艘最新船隻：海洋奧德賽號、名人頂點號和銀月號。

In addition, 3 ships will cater to the U.S. market offering Caribbean itineraries departing from Nassau, St. Maarten and Bermuda. Many of these sailings will call on our amazing private island Perfect Day at Cococay. On top of these, Quantum on the Seas will continue to offer cruises from the Singapore -- from Singapore for the local market.

此外，還有 3 艘遊輪將服務美國市場，提供從拿騷、聖馬丁和百慕達出發的加勒比海航線。其中許多航行將停靠我們令人驚嘆的可可凱私人島嶼“完美一天”。除此之外，Quantum on the Seas 將持續為當地市場提供從新加坡出發的遊輪服務。

Now regarding TUI Cruises, our JV, they have announced 2 additional ships sailing this summer in addition to 3 vessels that have been operating out of the Canary Island since this past November. We look forward to announcing the return of additional ships and remain committed to a safe, thoughtful and financially sensible resumption of cruising across the entire fleet.

現在，關於我們的合資公司 TUI Cruises，除了自去年 11 月以來一直在加那利群島運營的 3 艘船外，他們還宣布今年夏天將新增 2 艘船。我們期待宣布更多船隻回歸，並繼續致力於安全、周到且經濟上合理地恢復整個船隊的巡航。

Now I will provide an update on the [odd] bookings. When we opened the first set of sailings for Quantum of the Seas in October of 2020, we immediately saw the pent-up demand for cruising in Singapore. Because of this, we hoped and expected that the same would be true in other markets, and these expectations were confirmed when we launched our new deployment.

現在我將提供[奇怪]預訂的最新情況。當我們在 2020 年 10 月開啟海洋量子號的第一批航行時，我們立即看到了新加坡被壓抑的郵輪需求。正因為如此，我們希望並預期其他市場也是如此，這些預期在我們啟動新部署時得到了證實。

We have been very pleased with booking levels and pricing for sailings in both Europe and the Caribbean. And as a result, our load factors and revenues are building up nicely. After less than 3 weeks of sales from most ships, we already have about 30% of our expected revenue booked for June through September sails. We expect to start our initial operations with lower load factors and ramp up gradually over time.

我們對歐洲和加勒比地區航行的預訂水準和定價非常滿意。因此，我們的載客率和收入都在穩定成長。在大多數船舶銷售不到 3 週後，我們已經預訂了 6 月至 9 月航行的預期收入的約 30%。我們預計以較低的負載率開始初始運營，並隨著時間的推移逐漸增加。

On our last earnings call, I shared that we received 30% more bookings in January when compared to November and December. Despite anemic sales and marketing activities, demand continued to accelerate, and new bookings in March exceeded January and February levels by approximately 80%. In addition to new bookings, guests continue to utilize FCCs and take advantage of the Lift & Shift program.

在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我表示，與 11 月和 12 月相比，我們 1 月的預訂量增加了 30%。儘管銷售和行銷活動疲軟，但需求持續加速，3 月的新預訂量比 1 月和 2 月的水平高出約 80%。除了新預訂外，客人還繼續使用 FCC 並利用 Lift & Shift 計劃。

Now overall, the booking activity for the second half of 2021 is in line with our anticipated resumption of cruising. And pricing on these bookings is higher than 2019, both including and excluding the dilutive impact of future cruise credits.

現在總體而言，2021 年下半年的預訂活動與我們預期的郵輪恢復情況相符。這些預訂的定價高於 2019 年，包括並排除未來郵輪積分的稀釋影響。

Regarding 2022 sailings, it is still early in the booking window to provide too much detail. But I will share that our book load factors for the first half of 2022 remains within historical ranges. And pricing on booked business is up nicely versus 2019 when including the dilutionary impact of FCCs as well. While a portion of this improvement is related to our new ships, pricing is also up for the existing fleet.

關於 2022 年的航班，目前預訂窗口還為時過早，無法提供太多詳細資訊。但我要分享的是，我們 2022 年上半年的圖書負載率仍處於歷史範圍內。考慮到 FCC 的稀釋影響，預訂業務的定價與 2019 年相比也有了大幅上漲。雖然這種改進的一部分與我們的新船有關，但現有船隊的定價也有所上漲。

I will close by saying that we are prepared and eager for the flywheel start turning again. We feel very optimistic about our future and are thrilled to see more and more guests around the globe enjoying incredible vacations on-board our ships.

最後我要說的是，我們已做好準備並渴望飛輪再次開始轉動。我們對未來感到非常樂觀，並很高興看到全球越來越多的客人在我們的船上享受難以置信的假期。

With that, I will ask Shelby to open up the call for a question-and-answer session.

接下來，我將請謝爾比開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Robin Farley of UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. I have a question about the restart. Obviously, great news. Just trying to understand, does this -- you can go forward -- ship. And then there's a separate time line for restarting with a ship that allows nonvaccinated passengers out of the U.S. It seems that way, but I just want to kind of get clarification on that? And then just as my follow-up would be on the return to service expenses versus just typical lay up, how much if you -- if we think about per month layup cost per ship, and then what is that with restart costs for maybe that sort of monthly 3 months, say, heading into restart, what the difference is in lay-up versus lay-up and restart?

偉大的。我有一個關於重啟的問題。顯然，這是個好消息。只是想了解一下，這——你可以繼續——船嗎？然後還有一條單獨的時間表，允許未接種疫苗的乘客離開美國的船隻重新啟動。看起來是這樣，但我只是想對此進行澄清？然後，正如我的後續行動是恢復服務費用與典型的閒置費用相比，如果我們考慮每艘船每月的閒置成本，那麼重新啟動成本是多少？比如說，每月3 個月，進入重啟，擱置與擱置重啟有什麼不同？

So Robin, on the first question, which I'm sure is an amazing question. I don't think we got most of it. It broke up about 50% of it. So we actually didn't actually hear what you asked. I'll just comment real quick as it relates to -- on the cost side, and then you can reask the first part of your question.

羅賓，關於第一個問題，我確信這是一個令人驚奇的問題。我不認為我們得到了大部分。它分解了大約50%。所以我們其實並沒有聽到你問的內容。我會很快地評論一下與成本方面相關的問題，然後你可以重新問問題的第一部分。

Yes. we really have tuned in our way up costs. And of course, we've kept our ships generally in a warm state. So that as we restarted our ships, we would be able to do that expeditiously and at a reasonable cost. But as it relates to the return to service as we ramp the ships back up, those costs are still kind of very fluid, which is why we're not guiding on them as we need to take into consideration testing and crude movement and vaccinations and maybe other things that might be part of that equation. That might be different itinerary by itinerary.

是的。我們確實已經調整了提高成本的方式。當然，我們的船舶總體上保持在溫暖狀態。這樣，當我們重新啟動船舶時，我們就能夠以合理的成本迅速做到這一點。但由於它與我們恢復船舶服務時的恢復服務有關，這些成本仍然非常不穩定，這就是為什麼我們沒有對它們進行指導，因為我們需要考慮測試、粗略的移動和疫苗接種，也許還有其他東西可能是這個等式的一部分。不同的行程可能會有不同的行程。

So we're not yet ready to kind of guide on that. What I would tell you is we are being very -- we're very focused to make sure that, that as we're spending, that we're being very thoughtful about it. And of course, at the same time, as we're launching these ships, we're also getting the revenues and customer deposits that are associated with that. So I'll just pause there and let you ask the first part of your question, so we can hear it and hopefully give you a thoughtful answer.

所以我們還沒準備好對此提供指導。我要告訴你的是，我們非常——我們非常專注，以確保在我們支出時，我們對此非常深思熟慮。當然，同時，當我們推出這些船舶時，我們也獲得了與之相關的收入和客戶存款。因此，我將在此暫停，讓您提出問題的第一部分，以便我們能夠聽到並希望給您一個深思熟慮的答案。

Great. Well, hopefully, you can hear me a little bit better. On the first question, I just wanted to understand, obviously, very good news overnight. For the time frame, is it that there will be kind of 2 different restart time frames that you can today go forward with a fully vaccinated ship out of the U.S., but there will be a separate time frame for ships that have a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers, is that how to interpret the timing?

偉大的。好吧，希望你能更好地聽我說話。關於第一個問題，我只是想了解，顯然，一夜之間傳來了非常好的消息。對於時間範圍，是否會有兩種不同的重啟時間範圍，您今天可以帶著一艘完全接種疫苗的船舶離開美國，但對於混合接種疫苗的船舶會有一個單獨的時間範圍以及未接種疫苗的乘客，那又如何解讀時間呢？

Robin, it's Michael. As Richard commented, we received these modifications in commentary late yesterday evening. And we've gotten close to the CDC to clarify some of the comments and what have you. But fundamentally, yes, you're correct. There will be really 2 pathways, one pathway for vaccinated crew and largely vaccinated guests that meet the threshold that they've defined. And that would mean that there wouldn't be a requirement for a simulated voyage, et cetera, and there would be a different expectation on protocols and planning. So it's a faster route.

羅賓，這是邁克爾。正如理查德評論的那樣，我們昨天晚上在評論中收到了這些修改。我們已經與疾管中心聯繫，以澄清一些評論以及您的看法。但從根本上來說，是的，你是對的。實際上會有兩個途徑，一條途徑適用於已接種疫苗的船員和大部分已接種疫苗且符合他們定義的閾值的乘客。這意味著不需要模擬航行等，並且對協議和計劃會有不同的期望。所以這是一條更快的路線。

And then for ships that wouldn't have -- wouldn't meet that threshold for whatever reason, there would be a different time line and a different set of protocols and requirements. So fundamentally, there's 2 pathways. It's not that simple, but that's a way of simplifying.

然後，對於無論出於何種原因都無法達到該門檻的船舶，將會有不同的時間表和一套不同的協議和要求。所以從根本上來說，有兩條途徑。事情沒那麼簡單，但這是簡化的方法。

And I think we need to make clear that -- reemphasize, as Michael just did. There's still a lot of uncertainty about this. And I don't think you should think of these as 2 completely divergent processes. Obviously, just as there are in other areas in society, you treat people who have been vaccinated different than situations where you don't have vaccinations. But what is nice about this is that there are, in effect, both are viable pathways under the CDC letter that we got.

我認為我們需要明確這一點——再次強調，就像麥可剛才所做的那樣。這仍然存在許多不確定性。我認為你不應該將它們視為兩個完全不同的過程。顯然，就像在社會其他領域一樣，您對待接種疫苗的人與對待未接種疫苗的人是不同的。但這樣做的好處是，實際上，根據我們收到的 CDC 信函，這兩種途徑都是可行的。

And I think just to add to that, I think the acknowledgment that the vaccines are really transformational is very exceedingly helpful. I mean it's something we all knew was coming, but it's very positive.

我想補充一點，我認為承認疫苗確實具有變革性是非常有幫助的。我的意思是我們都知道這將會發生，但這是非常積極的。

Your next question is from Steve Wieczynski of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So my first question is going to be a bunch of CDC questions that hopefully -- I don't know if you're going to be able to answer -- you won't be able to. But it's a 3-part question, so prepare yourself for some fun here.

所以我的第一個問題將是一系列疾病預防控制中心的問題，希望——我不知道你是否能夠回答——你將無法回答。但這是一個由 3 部分組成的問題，因此請準備好享受這裡的樂趣。

When you look at the mandates that have been laid out. I mean, calling for 98% of crew and 95% of passengers to be vaccinated, do you -- I mean, the first question is, do you think getting to those thresholds will be easy to achieve? The second part of that is going to be the kid component. How are kids accounted for under those percentages? And if I'm reading that right, it seems like getting kids on board might be difficult during the CSO time frame. And then the third part of this is, do you think the CDC's cautionary travel outlook for the Bahamas could cause some panic with your potential customer base?

當你查看已經制定的任務。我的意思是，呼籲 98% 的機組人員和 95% 的乘客接種疫苗，你是否 - 我的意思是，第一個問題是，你認為達到這些閾值會很容易實現嗎？第二部分將是兒童部分。兒童在這些百分比下是如何計算的？如果我沒理解錯的話，在 CSO 的時間範圍內讓孩子們參與其中似乎會很困難。第三部分是，您認為疾病預防控制中心對巴哈馬的謹慎旅行前景是否會引起您潛在客戶群的恐慌？

Steve, so on the 98%, 95% mandate or guidelines -- and remember, it's a guideline. So there's -- you can meet that threshold, and you don't have to meet that threshold, and there's different pathway. We know from surveys of our customers who've been booking since January, that over 80% of our customers have already told us, they're either vaccinated or will be vaccinated when they cruise. So that's since January. So there's an overwhelming, certainly for our customer base, people are just saying, I'm getting vaccinated. And as you skew older, the percentage increases quite significantly. Mainly because, of course, when the vaccination started, it started with the older age group first, et cetera, et cetera.

史蒂夫，關於 98%、95% 的指令或指導方針——記住，這是一個指導方針。所以，你可以達到這個門檻，但你不必達到這個門檻，而且有不同的途徑。我們從一月以來預訂的客戶的調查中得知，超過 80% 的客戶已經告訴我們，他們要么已經接種了疫苗，要么將在乘坐郵輪時接種疫苗。那是從一月開始的。因此，對於我們的客戶群來說，人們壓倒性地只是說，我正在接種疫苗。隨著年齡的增長，這一比例會顯著增加。當然，主要是因為，當疫苗接種開始時，首先從年齡較大的群體開始，等等。

For the crew, interestingly, every year, we offer -- we don't mandate flu vaccines for our crew members, and we've been doing that for many, many years. And the crew, typically, the vaccination rates of our crew members for flu is around the mid-90%. They just voluntarily take the vaccine. We surveyed our crew some months ago, and we stay in touch with the crew through surveys and various forms of communication.

有趣的是，對於船員來說，我們每年都會提供——我們不會強制要求船員接種流感疫苗，而且我們已經這樣做了很多很多年。而船員方面，我們船員的流感疫苗接種率通常在 90% 左右。他們只是自願接種疫苗。幾個月前我們對我們的船員進行了調查，並透過調查和各種形式的溝通與船員保持聯繫。

And in the survey that we sent out, I'm going to say it was at the end of last year or the beginning of this year, we asked our crew members, first of all, have you been vaccinated? Are you getting vaccinated? And will you get vaccinated? And we had over 98% positive response from our crew saying, yes, we're going to get vaccinated. So I think there's just -- I think it's somewhat a natural event. Crew used to getting vaccinated for flu, and they're certainly willing to get vaccinated for COVID. We do understand for health or religious reasons or belief reasons that some people won't want to, and that's been in place for many years in terms of how we vaccinate for flu.

在我們發出的調查中，我想說的是，在去年年底或今年年初，我們問我們的船員，首先，你們接種了疫苗嗎？你接種疫苗了嗎？你會接種疫苗嗎？我們的工作人員中有超過 98% 的人積極回應說，是的，我們要接種疫苗。所以我認為這是一個自然事件。船員們習慣接種流感疫苗，當然也願意接種新冠疫苗。我們確實理解，出於健康或宗教原因或信仰原因，有些人不願意這樣做，而且在我們如何接種流感疫苗方面，這種情況已經存在多年了。

On the kids, I think we obviously take a look at our kid count, kid population and what have you. We think this is the next phase. And we know that the vaccination now for eligible for children, 16 and over. We've been told that in the coming weeks and months, that age limit will likely drop to 12, and we're encouraged by that. And then for kids 11 and under, obviously, we carry a lot of kids 11 and under. But relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest count, it's quite a small number.

關於孩子，我認為我們顯然會看看我們的孩子數量、孩子人口以及你擁有的東西。我們認為這是下一階段。我們知道，現在適合 16 歲及以上兒童接種疫苗。我們被告知，在未來幾週和幾個月內，年齡限制可能會降至 12 歲，我們對此感到鼓舞。對於 11 歲及以下的孩子，顯然，我們有許多 11 歲及以下的孩子。但相對而言，占我們總客人數的百分比，這是一個相當小的數字。

So we're not overly concerned with that. And again, as Richard pointed out, we received these modifications late last night. We really do have to sit, study and discuss with the CDC and understand all of these different nuances. But we're not discouraged by this in anyway.

所以我們並不過分關心這一點。正如理查德所指出的，我們昨晚深夜收到了這些修改。我們確實必須坐下來與疾病預防控制中心進行研究和討論，並了解所有這些不同的細微差別。但無論如何，我們並不因此而氣餒。

Okay. Got you.

好的。明白你了。

And Steve, just -- I think we ought to make it clear that we've been operating and have announced cruises, some of which are requiring full vaccination and some of which do not. And so I think we consider it constructive that the CDC has looked at this with a dual pathway approach, much as we have taken.

史蒂夫，我認為我們應該明確表示，我們一直在運作並宣布航行，其中一些需要全面接種疫苗，而有些則不需要。因此，我認為我們認為疾病預防控制中心採用雙重途徑方法來看待這個問題是有建設性的，就像我們所採取的那樣。

Okay. Got you. And then second question, Jason. If the time line is correct here, and you can start North American cruising sometime over the next couple of months. And from there, you continue to bring ships back online over an extended period of time. The question is, do you feel like your current liquidity position is adequate at this point, meaning you feel comfortable enough with where you guys sit today?

好的。明白你了。然後是第二個問題，傑森。如果這裡的時間線正確，您可以在接下來幾個月的某個時間開始北美巡航。從那時起，您將繼續在很長一段時間內將船舶重新上線。問題是，您認為目前的流動性狀況是否充足，這意味著您對今天的情況感到滿意嗎？

I think we feel like we are in a very strong liquidity position. And we're -- the real focus here is getting the ships back on the water. And of course, as that's occurring at the same time, the customer deposits and revenues and so forth start coming in. So I think we feel very good. And of course, we're also remaining to be opportunistic and looking at ways to improve our balance sheet and negative carry and so forth. So -- but overall, Steve, I think we feel that we've taken very prudent actions to make sure that we're in a position of strength.

我認為我們感覺我們的流動性狀況非常強勁。我們真正的重點是讓船隻重新回到水面。當然，隨著這同時發生，客戶存款和收入等開始增加。所以我認為我們感覺非常好。當然，我們也仍保持機會主義態度，尋找改善資產負債表和負利差等的方法。所以，但總的來說，史蒂夫，我認為我們已經採取了非常謹慎的行動來確保我們處於優勢。

Carola, congratulations.

卡羅拉，恭喜。

Your next question comes from Jamie Katz of Morningstar.

您的下一個問題來自晨星公司的傑米·卡茨。

I'm curious if you have any comments on consideration of the sale of anymore of the fleet or whether you feel the fleet is good as is given there have been so many sales across the industry or scrap across the industry recently? And then if you comment on the percentage of workforce that you're getting from India and then how that might constrain the ability to staff the ship sufficiently going forward now that there are some sort of overlaying constraint on it, that would be really helpful?

我很好奇您對考慮出售更多機隊有何評論，或者您是否認為機隊很好，因為最近整個行業有如此多的銷售或報廢？然後，如果您評論一下從印度獲得的勞動力百分比，以及由於存在某種疊加限制，這可能會如何限制船舶未來充分配備人員的能力，這真的會有幫助嗎？

Yes. Sure, Jaime. Jaime, I'll take the first one and I'll let -- and Michael will do the mix in terms of crew from India. But as it relates to our fleet, even for some of the ships that we've sold, our -- the way that we kind of approach this always is just understanding whether a ship is a good fit for the brand or still a good fit for the brand or if we can invest in that ship to make sure it's a good fit for the brand.

是的。當然，海梅。海梅（Jaime），我會選擇第一個，然後由邁克爾（Michael）負責來自印度的工作人員的混音。但由於它與我們的船隊有關，即使對於我們已出售的一些船舶，我們的處理方式始終只是了解船舶是否適合該品牌或仍然適合該品牌，或者我們是否可以投資該船以確保它非常適合該品牌。

And and if not, we look and we're opportunistic about this. But I think we've made -- we've scrapped some ships. We've sold some ships. We typically sell about a ship a year. But overall, we feel really good about the fleet. And as you've heard us say in the past, these ships are really always cash flow positive. And so for us to part ways with them, it has to be because it's the right strategic reason for us to do so.

如果沒有，我們就會尋找機會並對此採取機會主義態度。但我認為我們已經廢棄了一些船隻。我們已經賣掉了一些船。我們通常每年出售大約一艘船。但總的來說，我們對機隊感覺非常好。正如您過去聽我們說過的那樣，這些船舶實際上總是現金流為正。因此，對我們來說，與他們分道揚鑣，必須是因為這是我們這樣做的正確策略原因。

And Jamie, on the cruise situation, particularly as it relates to India, yes, I mean it's just unfortunate what's occurring in India and over the past week or so. There's been multiple travel restrictions placed on Indians traveling through to various countries and what have you. So we did temporarily suspend our crewing activities from India as we understand how this will work out.

傑米，關於郵輪情況，特別是與印度有關的情況，是的，我的意思是印度和過去一周左右發生的事情很不幸。印度人前往各國旅行都有多個旅行限制，等等。因此，我們確實暫時中止了在印度的船員活動，因為我們了解這將如何進行。

The beauty, of course, of our crewing model is that almost from the very beginning, we've crewed from literally over 100 countries around the world. Obviously, some countries like India have significant volume with employees who come from India. But we have large populations that come from many other countries around the world. So we're obviously super sympathetic about what's happening in India because we do have many loyal employees who've been with us for many, many years. And -- but we -- obviously, we're pretty confident this will work out in the coming months. And we have the ability to crew and change our crewing based upon all of these circumstances. So discouraging what's occurring in India, but our model is very robust. So we're encouraged by the model that we have.

當然，我們的船員模式的美妙之處在於，幾乎從一開始，我們的船員就來自全球 100 多個國家。顯然，印度等一些國家擁有大量來自印度的員工。但我們有大量來自世界各地許多其他國家的人口。因此，我們顯然對印度正在發生的事情非常同情，因為我們確實有許多忠誠的員工，他們已經和我們在一起很多很多年了。而且 - 但我們 - 顯然，我們非常有信心這將在未來幾個月內取得成功。我們有能力根據所有這些情況來配備和改變我們的船員。印度發生的事情令人沮喪，但我們的模式非常穩健。因此，我們對現有的模型感到鼓舞。

Our next question is from Brandt Montour of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

And obviously, yes, all positive news today. Back on the -- one more on the CDC, if I may. With the CSO still in place, outside -- let's say, outside of what we've talked about so far, the vaccination specific bogey, what was the biggest change? What were the biggest changes overnight for you? And does this change your best guess for the ultimate capacity you think you'll have sailing at the end of this summer versus, say, what you thought 24 hours ago?

顯然，是的，今天都是正面的消息。如果可以的話，我們再來談談疾病預防控制中心 (CDC)。在 CSO 仍然存在的情況下，除了我們到目前為止所討論的疫苗接種特定忌之外，最大的變化是什麼？一夜之間對你來說最大的改變是什麼？這是否會改變您對今年夏末航行最終容量的最佳猜測，與您 24 小時前的想法相比？

Brandt, as Richard commented in his opening statement, what really -- first of all, we've been in very constructive dialogue with the CDC over the past few weeks and beyond the CDC with an intergovernmental agency group that was representing many different departments of the government. And I think that dialogue allowed the industry to talk realistically about many of the elements of the CSO, which is unrealistic or unable to be executed the way we crafted.

布蘭特先生，正如理查德在開場白中評論的那樣，首先，在過去幾周里，我們一直在與疾病預防控制中心進行非常有建設性的對話，並且在疾病預防控制中心之外，還與一個代表美國許多不同部門的政府間機構小組進行了非常有建設性的對話。政府。我認為，這種對話讓業界能夠現實地討論 CSO 的許多要素，而這些要素是不切實際的或無法按照我們制定的方式執行的。

What we saw last night was very encouraging because it wasn't 1 or 2 things. It was multiple additions and corrections to many of the elements of the existing CSO that really challenging and very, very difficult, particularly as it relates to what's occurring with vaccines. So the -- I think the mood of Royal Caribbean last night and late into the night and then just speaking also to some of our industry colleagues were simply positive, that all of this dialogue that was constructive had resulted in clearly being heard. And so I wouldn't say there's any one thing. There's just many, many things. But certainly, the vaccines are a major foundational game changing element of this.

我們昨晚所看到的非常令人鼓舞，因為這不是一兩件事。對現有 CSO 的許多要素進行了多次補充和修正，這確實具有挑戰性，而且非常非常困難，特別是因為它與疫苗的情況有關。因此，我認為皇家加勒比昨晚和深夜的情緒非常積極，所有這些建設性的對話都得到了清晰的聽到。所以我不會說有任何一件事。有很多很多的事情。但可以肯定的是，疫苗是改變遊戲規則的一個重要的基礎因素。

Okay. That's helpful. And just a quick follow-up on sort of how you're thinking about occupancy and load? Jason, you mentioned that sort of bookings and to date for the summer sailings are around sort of maybe 30% of expected revenue. Is that sort of -- just to clarify, that's not of what your total capacity would be on those sailings. That's just of what your target load would be? And then a followup -- and then sort of a second part of that would be sort of what do you think the range of that target is for -- vaccination sailings. So reconcile that with what you're doing in Singapore on non-vaccination sailings? And that's it for me.

好的。這很有幫助。快速跟進一下您對佔用率和負載的看法？ Jason，您提到夏季航行的此類預訂量約佔預期收入的 30%。是這樣嗎？只是澄清一下，這不是您在這些航行中的總運力。這就是您的目標負載嗎？然後是後續行動——然後是第二部分，你認為該目標的範圍是什麼——疫苗接種航行。那麼，將其與您在新加坡的非疫苗接種航行中所做的事情相協調嗎？對我來說就是這樣。

Yes. Well, it is -- or the statement was really relating to what we expected it to be. And of course, most of these sailings, we've negotiated where we've had conversations in terms of what those load factors would start off being. And so we've been very kind of thoughtful about what our expectations are going to be, whether we're turning in the Bahamas or whether we're turning in Israel and so forth.

是的。嗯，確實如此——或者說該聲明確實與我們的預期相關。當然，在大多數航行中，我們已經就這些負載因素開始時的情況進行了談判。因此，我們一直非常深思熟慮我們的期望是什麼，無論我們是在巴哈馬還是在以色列等等。

So I think, obviously, we saw a lot of encouraging news here from the CDC, but the sailings in which we've announced are really for sailings that take place outside of the U.S. home ports. But all that -- this is -- as Michael and Richard talking about, this is an evolving story. And as long as we can continue to believe that we can operate a safe manner, making sure our guests have an incredible experience, and we can do that in a -- in a way that is improving our financial position. That -- those are the kind of 3 guiding lights that are guiding our day-to-day decisions.

所以我認為，顯然，我們從疾病預防控制中心看到了很多令人鼓舞的消息，但我們宣布的航行實際上是針對在美國母港以外的航行。但正如邁克爾和理查德所說，這一切都是一個不斷發展的故事。只要我們繼續相信我們可以以安全的方式運營，確保我們的客人擁有令人難以置信的體驗，我們就可以透過改善我們的財務狀況的方式做到這一點。這就是指導我們日常決策的三盞指路明燈。

Our next question is from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林。

I guess, turning to ship growth and capacity increases. I guess, what is a reasonable range of net capacity growth as we look over the next couple of years? And I guess, have any of the dispositions effectively been pull forward of future retirements? So we should expect maybe less going forward?

我想，轉向船舶成長和運力增加。我想，未來幾年淨產能成長的合理範圍是多少？我想，是否有任何配置有效地提前到了未來的退休時間？那我們應該期待未來的發展會更少嗎？

Well, I mean, I think first, overall, industry-wide, as I've commented on the last call, the growth rate, which was probably around 6%, it's probably going to be around 4%. So you're going to see less growth there. I think for us, our planned capacity growth is -- I mean, it's kind of laid out as it relates to the ships that are coming online. Again, I wouldn't focus too much on the retirement story. Because for us, we continue to just be thoughtful and be opportunistic about the opportunity to sell ships if that opportunity arises.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為首先，總體而言，整個行業，正如我在上次電話會議中所評論的那樣，增長率可能在 6% 左右，可能會在 4% 左右。所以你會看到那裡的成長減少。我認為對我們來說，我們計劃的產能成長是——我的意思是，它是與即將上線的船舶相關的。再說一遍，我不會太在意退休故事。因為對我們來說，如果出現出售船舶的機會，我們將繼續深思熟慮並抓住機會。

But for the most part, I think we feel the fleet that we have today and the new ships that are coming online in that cadence is how we would expect our business to grow. And there might be some retirements. I wouldn't say it's an accelerated retirement program based off of what we've done. I would just say we plan to kind of operate our business and manage our fleet and invest in our fleet and how we've done it on a pre-COVID basis.

但在很大程度上，我認為我們認為我們今天擁有的船隊和以這種節奏上線的新船是我們期望我們的業務成長的方式。並且可能會有一些人退休。我不會說這是一個基於我們所做的事情的加速退休計劃。我只想說，我們計劃在新冠疫情之前運營我們的業務、管理我們的機隊、投資我們的機隊以及我們是如何做到這一點的。

And perhaps a related follow-up. Some of your peers have cited basically cost improvements and efficiency improvements from the mix of new ships and/or changes in the cost structure. Can you give us any color on how you see either the mix of new ships impacting net yields and net cruise costs or any big buckets of opportunity for permanent changes in how you operate?

也許還有相關的後續行動。您的一些同行基本上引用了新船組合和/或成本結構變化帶來的成本改進和效率改進。您能否告訴我們您如何看待影響淨收益和淨遊輪成本的新船組合，或永久改變您的營運方式的任何巨大機會？

Yes. Well, I think we've also talked about this, and we talked about it quite a bit on the last call, is -- so obviously, as the new capacity comes on, they are more efficient, especially on a fuel standpoint, and they also generate a much higher yield profile because of the inventory mix and the onboard revenue opportunities that come along with our new capacity.

是的。嗯，我想我們也討論過這個問題，我們在上次電話會議上討論了很多，很明顯，隨著新產能的出現，它們的效率更高，特別是從燃料的角度來看，並且由於我們的新產能帶來的庫存組合和船上收入機會，它們也產生了更高的收益率。

But during this time, we have looked at our cost structure. We have taken action on our cost structure to ensure that as we come out of this, I think I used the term in our wedding week. And so we've identified and we've implemented, and we are implementing several cost actions in order to improve our margins.

但在這段時間裡，我們檢視了我們的成本結構。我們已經對我們的成本結構採取了行動，以確保當我們走出這個困境時，我想我在我們的婚禮週中使用了這個詞。因此，我們已經確定並實施了多項成本行動，以提高我們的利潤率。

And then also, I would just add, at the same time, we want to make sure that the guest experience is protected. The employee experience is protected. And so a lot of this comes through with automation and us just coordinating better enterprise-wide to make better margin decisions.

然後，我想補充一點，同時，我們希望確保賓客體驗受到保護。員工體驗受到保護。因此，許多都是透過自動化實現的，我們只是在整個企業範圍內更好地協調，以做出更好的利潤決策。

Just one quick follow-up on that. I guess, between the vaccine-only type cruises and then those that are more open, are you seeing any differences in the cost structure between those 2 as we think about this kind of dual approach potentially from CDC?

只是對此進行快速跟進。我想，在僅疫苗類型的巡航和那些更開放的巡航之間，當我們考慮疾病預防控制中心可能採取的這種雙重方法時，您是否發現這兩種類型的成本結構有任何差異？

Stephen, it's Michael. Yes, I mean, there is a different cost profile. But again, we need a little bit of time to work our way through this. But there's more protocols with non-vaccines than with vaccine, and there's more testing requirements and what have you. So there is -- there will be slightly more cost, but we really do need to work our way through that. And I think there's a lot of averaging of scale. So the great news is that our teams are now sitting down, and we're looking at all of this and trying to understand it and plan. So I think we'll have more clarity in the coming days and weeks.

史蒂芬，我是麥可。是的，我的意思是，有不同的成本概況。但同樣，我們需要一點時間來解決這個問題。但非疫苗的方案比疫苗的方案更多，而且測試要求也更多。因此，成本會稍微增加，但我們確實需要努力解決這個問題。我認為有很多規模的平均化。因此，好消息是我們的團隊現在坐下來，我們正在研究所有這些並試圖理解它並製定計劃。所以我認為我們在未來幾天和幾週內將會更加清晰。

Your next question is from Paul Golding of Macquarie.

您的下一個問題來自麥格理的保羅·戈爾丁。

I was wondering, I saw that for 2021, you cited a 75% new booking rate as opposed to 25% FCCs. And I guess I was wondering if there was some impact -- I don't know if you've given a '22 mix number. But is there something structural there in the near to medium-term around marketing, you're able to maybe take some savings there as demand seems to be strong despite low levels of marketing?

我想知道，我看到您提到 2021 年的新預訂率為 75%，而不是 25% 的 FCC。我想我想知道是否有一些影響 - 我不知道你是否給了 '22 混合號碼。但是，在中短期內，行銷方面是否存在一些結構性的因素，儘管行銷水平較低，但需求似乎很強勁，因此您也許可以節省一些費用？

And then my second question is around Caribbean Homeport versus U.S. Homeport. I was wondering if there was anything structural about if for whatever reason you decided this season wasn't the one for a robust U.S. Homeport setup. Are there savings? Or are there structural costs that outpace what the U.S. Homeport itinerary mix would look like?

我的第二個問題是關於加勒比海母港與美國母港的。我想知道是否存在任何結構性因素，無論出於何種原因，您認為本賽季不是一個強大的美國母港設置的賽季。有儲蓄嗎？或是是否有結構性成本超過美國母港行程組合的情況？

Yes. So on the first one, as it relates to the bookings that are coming in, the profile of new bookings versus the application of FCCs is really kind of a broader commentary around the bookings that we've been taking on. So 2022, we see a very similar profile where the -- around that percentage is also for new bookings versus the application.

是的。因此，在第一個方面，因為它與即將到來的預訂有關，所以新預訂與 FCC 應用程式的概況實際上是對我們一直在進行的預訂的更廣泛的評論。因此，到 2022 年，我們會看到一個非常相似的情況，其中新預訂與應用程式的百分比也約為該百分比。

Again, it's really early days, I think, to try to kind of pace that, those type of stats will result in some type of sales and marketing savings. Time will tell. What's clear to us is there's really strong demand and really some activity on the marketing side is able to generate that demand, which is, I think, very encouraging for us overall.

再說一次，我認為，嘗試調整這些類型的統計數據將導致某種類型的銷售和行銷節省還為時過早。時間會證明一切。我們清楚的是，需求確實很強勁，而且行銷方面的一些活動確實能夠產生這種需求，我認為這對我們整體而言非常令人鼓舞。

And then I think on the cost side, as it relates to turning in different ports around the world, there's always different port fees. Vaccinations, testing and so forth can all kind of play in the mix of it. But I think for the most part, it's not really a cost differential. I think it's more about our ability to get our passengers to those locations and turn at those locations and then deliver world class vacation experiences.

然後我認為在成本方面，由於涉及世界各地不同的港口，總是有不同的港口費用。疫苗接種、檢測等都可以在其中發揮作用。但我認為在大多數情況下，這並不是真正的成本差異。我認為更重要的是我們有能力讓乘客到達這些地點並在這些地點轉機，然後提供世界一流的度假體驗。

Paul, just one comment on sales and marketing. We're always internally facing what was going to happen with wave in '21, understanding we wouldn't really obviously have a wave as we historically used to having a wave. And normally, wave starts sometime into the second or so week of January and then runs through February peaking and then dropping off in March. And we certainly didn't get a wave this year. But then in March of this year, we had a really strong March. And so we looked at the volume of bookings that came in, in March of this year and we compared it with wave in '19, which was our last real wave period. And our bookings in March of this year equaled peak wave months in '19.

保羅，我只是對銷售和行銷的一點評論。我們總是在內部面對 21 年浪潮將會發生的事情，理解我們不會像我們歷史上習慣的那樣真正明顯地出現浪潮。通常情況下，浪潮會在一月份第二週左右的某個時候開始，然後在二月達到頂峰，然後在三月下降。今年我們當然沒有掀起浪潮。但今年三月，我們經歷了一個非常強勁的三月。因此，我們查看了今年 3 月的預訂量，並將其與 19 年的浪潮進行了比較，這是我們最後一個真正的浪潮時期。我們今年 3 月的預訂量相當於 19 年高峰月份的預訂量。

So that was -- I mean, that was quite an amazing number. So we kind of -- we started to see wave coming in March instead of January. And certainly, the volume was impressive. But the point of this is that ironically, our marketing and sales investment during that month was way, way below what we invested in '19.

所以那是——我的意思是，這是一個相當驚人的數字。所以我們開始看到浪潮在三月而不是一月到來。當然，數量令人印象深刻。但諷刺的是，我們在那個月的行銷和銷售投資遠低於我們 19 年的投資。

So I mean, it's an interesting fact that we had so much demand with very little investment, which I think speaks to what we're seeing and believe is occurring in the market with pent-up demand. I mean we know that we've been told savings rate in the U.S. with U.S. consumers increased by $2.5 trillion. The credit card debt is down by $100 billion. And our surveys tell us that the consumer is increasingly optimistic about the future that the worst is behind them that they are going to go on a vacation. And so I think that one statistic for March, we interpret as incredibly positive and speaks about what we think is going to be one amazing pent-up demand that's going to be -- is going to be unleashed, particularly for '22.

所以我的意思是，一個有趣的事實是，我們用很少的投資卻有如此大的需求，我認為這說明了我們所看到的並相信市場上正在發生的情況，而需求被壓抑。我的意思是，我們知道美國消費者的儲蓄率增加了 2.5 兆美元。信用卡債務減少了 1000 億美元。我們的調查告訴我們，消費者對未來越來越樂觀，最糟糕的時期已經過去，他們要去度假。因此，我認為 3 月份的一項統計數據，我們認為是非常積極的，並且談到了我們認為將是一項令人驚奇的被壓抑的需求，它將被釋放，特別是在 22 年。

That was my point or my question around that is that it seems like the consumer is seeking out the experience. And so I wondered if there was some medium-term efficiency there, but I appreciate the color on the volumes -- on the booking volumes.

這就是我的觀點或我的問題是，消費者似乎正在尋求這種體驗。所以我想知道那裡是否有一些中期效率，但我很欣賞預訂量上的顏色。

Your next question is from Greg Badishkanian of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Greg Badishkanian。

It's actually Fred Wightman on for Greg. I just wanted to follow-up on Michael's comments just now on the bookings in March. Totally get that it's sequentially stronger than January, February, and the 2019 commentary was super helpful. Have you seen a change in the SKU about where those bookings are taking place as far as '21 versus '22 more recently, just given some of the improving dialogues with the CDC? And what do you think that means for the prospects of a potential July restart here domestically?

實際上是弗雷德·懷特曼（Fred Wightman）代替格雷格（Greg）。我只是想跟進邁克爾剛才關於三月預訂的評論。完全明白它連續強於 1 月、2 月，而且 2019 年的評論非常有幫助。鑑於與 CDC 的對話有所改善，您是否看到最近 21 日與 22 日的 SKU 發生變化？您認為這對 7 月國內重啟的前景意味著什麼？

Well, over the past few weeks, we've introduced multiple products, home porting outside of the U.S. and the Caribbean, which we've spoken about. And the demand for those products has been quite robust. I mean, we're quite pleased with the demand that we've seen for those products. Certainly, we see things moving into '22 which is natural. We're heading into June, and June traditionally is the month where bookings tend to heavily skew more towards the next year rather than the current year. And then that's certainly holding true from what we're seeing.

嗯，在過去的幾周里，我們推出了多種產品，我們已經談到了美國和加勒比海地區以外的本地移植。對這些產品的需求相當強勁。我的意思是，我們對這些產品的需求感到非常滿意。當然，我們看到事情會進入'22，這是很自然的。我們即將進入六月，而六月傳統上是預訂量更傾向於明年而不是今年的月份。從我們所看到的情況來看，這確實是正確的。

Yes. And I think just to add a couple of comments to it. As we commented a little bit earlier, obviously, the booking activity is skewing a little bit older. And what you would expect because of the vaccination comments in terms of the percentage of our guests that say they've either have been vaccinated or they plan on getting vaccinated. But 2022, especially out of the North American markets, the U.K. markets and so forth, look actually pretty similar to what you would see in a typical year. While the 2021 bookings, obviously, more recently have gravitated to the sailings that we have announced out of the Bahamas and Israel and so forth.

是的。我想添加一些評論。正如我們之前評論的那樣，顯然，預訂活動的時間偏長了一些。您會因為疫苗接種評論而期待什麼，即表示已經接種疫苗或計劃接種疫苗的客人的百分比。但 2022 年，尤其是北美市場、英國市場等，看起來其實與典型年份非常相似。顯然，2021 年的預訂量最近更多地轉向了我們宣布的從巴哈馬和以色列等地出發的航班。

So it's -- I think it's very clear, as Michael said, people are thinking that the worst is behind. There's a lot of these different statistics as it relates to credit card debt and savings and people's propensity to get back out there and vacation. And I think 2022 so far, looks like it's behaving like we saw pre-COVID.

所以，我認為很明顯，正如邁克爾所說，人們認為最糟糕的情況已經過去了。有許多不同的統計數據，因為它們與信用卡債務和儲蓄以及人們外出度假的傾向有關。我認為 2022 年到目前為止，看起來就像我們在新冠疫情之前看到的那樣。

That's helpful. And the release sort of teases the prospect of a return to Alaska this year. I'm wondering if you could just touch on the mechanics for that, how realistic that might be and then what the next steps or clarifications that you might need to hear to make that happen would be?

這很有幫助。這次發布有點暗示今年重返阿拉斯加的前景。我想知道您是否可以談談其中的機制，這可能有多現實，然後您可能需要聽到什麼後續步驟或澄清才能實現這一點？

Yes. So that's a slightly complex one. Specifically with respect to Alaska, because, of course, Canada has put in place a stop until throughout the season. And so in order to restart the Alaskan season, we would either need a waiver from the passenger vessel services at or Canada would have to allow at least technical stops. And we're working on both and others are working on both, but we can't be certain where that will end up.

是的。這是一個稍微複雜的問題。特別是對於阿拉斯加，因為當然，加拿大在整個賽季之前都進行了停賽。因此，為了重新開始阿拉斯加季節，我們要么需要客船服務的豁免，要么加拿大必須允許至少技術性停靠。我們正在努力解決這兩個問題，其他人也在努力解決這兩個問題，但我們無法確定最終結果如何。

But I think given the momentum, there's reason for some hope, but I think we're -- that's a sufficiently complex and confusing situation, but I don't think we're going to put odds on it one way or the other. I also think we need to be just a little bit careful when we're talking about reading into these bookings. There are still a lot of issues that have yet to be resolved with respect to the CDC and this order.

但我認為，鑑於目前的勢頭，我們有理由抱持一些希望，但我認為我們——這是一個足夠複雜和令人困惑的情況，但我不認為我們會以某種方式對此抱有希望。我還認為，當我們談論解讀這些預訂時，我們需要小心一點。關於疾病預防控制中心和這項命令，還有很多問題有待解決。

The bookings that have taken place and have been in a period of high uncertainty. Are these cruises going to be sailing? Will they go where they want? What will be the protocol? So there's a lot of uncertainty. And while we try and read a lot into it, and the one thing that I think we are feeling comfortable about is that there is a lot of pent-up demand. There's too many fluid factors, I think, to read too much into some of the specifics of what is this particular meaning for, particularly '22. I think it's all terribly encouraging for '23 and it's very encouraging for '22. But the specifics of each of these is going to be difficult to read into until things calm down, and there's much more certainty about where it's leading to.

已進行的預訂處於高度不確定的時期。這些遊輪會航行嗎？他們會去他們想去的地方嗎？協議是什麼？所以存在著很多不確定性。雖然我們嘗試對此進行了很多解讀，但我認為我們感到滿意的一件事是存在大量被壓抑的需求。我認為，有太多的流動因素，無法過度解讀這一特殊意義的一些細節，尤其是「22」。我認為這對 23 年來說是非常令人鼓舞的，對於 22 來說也是非常令人鼓舞的。但在事情平靜下來之前，每個問題的具體細節都將很難解讀，而且它的走向也更加確定。

But as to Alaska, I feel, specifically, while we're optimistic and we're working to make that happen, there are these other factors. We do think that we'll be in time for the Alaskan season. And we're obviously hopeful that we'll be able to solve the issue with Canada in either in 1 of these 2 ways.

但就阿拉斯加而言，我覺得，雖然我們很樂觀並且正在努力實現這一目標，但還有其他因素。我們確實認為我們會及時趕上阿拉斯加季節。我們顯然希望能夠透過這兩種方式中的任何一種來解決與加拿大的問題。

Our next question is from Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A question, it appears that the next step that the CDC is looking for is to complete Phase IIA. In your opinion, what's a realistic time line at this moment in which you think you could complete Phase IIA?.

問題是，CDC 尋求的下一步似乎是完成 IIA 階段。您認為，目前您認為可以完成 IIA 階段的現實時間表是多少？

Patrick, I can't give you like a weeks or how many weeks and days. I think again, as we understood and interpret what we received last night, if you're planning on a highly vaccinated cruise, there will be no requirement for a simulated voyage. And the previous 30-day notification and process for simulation and then the subsequent 60-day for notification in the process for your first actual revenue sailing has effectively been (inaudible).

派崔克，我不能給你一周或多少週和天的時間。我再次認為，根據我們對昨晚收到的信息的理解和解釋，如果您計劃進行高度疫苗接種的巡航，則不需要模擬航行。之前的 30 天通知和模擬流程以及隨後的 60 天通知流程中的第一次實際收入航行實際上已經（聽不清楚）。

And so highly vaccinated crews can literally -- as soon as you have your port plan ready and everything lined up, you can submit your request to cruise, and they will try the best to get your response within 5 days. So you can see that the time line and the process has improved quite significantly. So I think there's the process of crewing the ship, obviously, and then the vaccination process. So I think the target that's been stated and that we've all been working towards is in mid-July. And I think that after what we received last night is looking very realistic. But again, to Richard's point, we still got a lot to clarify. But I think this commitment to mid-July is looking very realistic based upon what we saw last night.

因此，經過高度疫苗接種的船員實際上可以——一旦您準備好港口計劃並準備好一切，您就可以向遊輪提交您的請求，他們將盡力在 5 天內得到您的答复。所以你可以看到時間軸和流程有了相當顯著的改善。所以我認為顯然有船員的過程，然後是疫苗接種過程。所以我認為我們已經提出的目標以及我們一直在努力實現的目標是在七月中旬。我認為我們昨晚收到的訊息看起來非常現實。但同樣，就理查德的觀點而言，我們還有很多事情需要澄清。但我認為，根據我們昨晚所看到的情況，對七月中旬的承諾看起來非常現實。

Your final question is from Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research.

您的最後一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究中心的文斯·西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)。

Curious if there are some factors we should keep in mind that would make 2022 yield, maybe not as comparable to 2019? Just in light of pricing being ahead, it sounds good. You had mentioned that new capacity should maybe be a bit of a tailwind, but are there any offsets from a mix perspective? Or the itineraries that you might be running in '22 versus '19 or even getting back to those peak, 107%, 180% occupancy levels that might impact the comparability of the 2022 yields to 2019 yield?

好奇是否有一些我們應該牢記的因素會導致 2022 年的收益率可能無法與 2019 年相提並論？就目前的定價而言，聽起來不錯。您曾提到，新產能可能會起到一定的推動作用，但從混合角度來看是否有任何抵銷作用？或者您可能在 22 年與 19 年運行的行程，甚至回到峰值 107%、180% 的入住率水平，這可能會影響 2022 年收益率與 2019 年收益率的可比性？

Vince, I think it's really too early to kind of tell. I mean, structurally, the additional capacity, us, obviously getting rid of some of our older tonnage a negative is the sale of Azamara, which is a higher-yielding brand versus the average. But for the most part, I think it really kind of depends on how the business builds going into next year. As Michael said, really, as we start getting here into the early part of the summer, is really when 2022 really begins to build up. But there's not necessarily something structurally as a rig to the fleet or our deployment that's going to make a significant change in 2022.

文斯，我認為現在下結論還為時過早。我的意思是，從結構上來說，我們的額外產能顯然是擺脫了一些舊噸位，一個負面因素是出售 Azamara，這是一個與平均水平相比收益更高的品牌。但在很大程度上，我認為這實際上取決於明年的業務發展。正如麥可所說，實際上，當我們開始進入初夏時，2022 年才真正開始到來。但在結構上，例如艦隊的鑽孔機或我們的部署，不一定會在 2022 年發生重大變化。

Got it. And as a follow-up, Richard mentioned the uncertainty and fluidity of the situation. And I think when you look at your deposits, they've been stable for a number of quarters at $1.8 billion, but still ways away from that $3.4 billion, they were at one point. So curious what you think it takes for those to rebuild, it seems like that's a key part of helping to delever a bit as well. And if there's a path for that, kind of in the second half of this year as confidence, hopefully, returns and the booking curve lengthens a bit?

知道了。作為後續，理查德提到了局勢的不確定性和流動性。我認為，當你查看你的存款時，你會發現它們在幾個季度中一直穩定在 18 億美元，但距離 34 億美元還有很遠的距離，它們曾經達到 34 億美元。很好奇你認為重建需要什麼，這似乎也是幫助去槓桿化的關鍵部分。如果有一條路徑可以實現這一目標，例如在今年下半年，隨著信心的恢復和預訂曲線的延長，情況會有所改善嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think -- first of all, it's been stable now for several quarters. It's now building. And it's building because we're able to provide clarity on ships and deployments that are coming back up into service. And so I think the consumer is gaining confidence. But I think they're looking for us for clarity on exactly which ships are going to be coming up and when so that they can plan and count on their vacation experience. And I think as, obviously, a lot of this is beginning to -- in terms of some of the barriers are beginning to evaporate, that confidence is building and hopefully soon, we move back to those levels on a customer deposit standpoint.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——首先，它已經穩定了幾個季度。現在正在建設中。它正在建設中，因為我們能夠清楚地了解重新投入使用的船舶和部署。所以我認為消費者正在獲得信心。但我認為他們正在尋找我們明確哪些船將在何時抵達，以便他們可以計劃並依靠他們的假期體驗。我認為，顯然，很多事情正在開始 - 就一些障礙開始消失而言，信心正在建立，希望很快，我們從客戶存款的角度回到這些水平。

Thank you all for your assistance today, Shelby, with the call. And we thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Carola will be available all day today for any follow-up questions you might have and as always, we wish everybody a great day, and please stay healthy.

謝爾比，感謝大家今天的協助。我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的興趣。卡羅拉今天全天都會為您解答任何後續問題，一如既往，我們祝大家度過愉快的一天，並請保持健康。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。