皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Group's Business Update and Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫謝爾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比集團的業務更新和 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jason Liberty. Mr. Liberty, the floor is yours.

現在我想介紹一下財務長 Jason Liberty 先生。自由先生，請發言。

Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us today for our business update and third quarter earnings call. Joining me are Richard Fain, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Carola Mengolini, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，謝爾比。大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的業務更新和第三季財報電話會議。與我一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長理查費恩 (Richard Fain)；貝利 (Michael Bayley)，皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁卡羅拉‧門戈里尼 (Carola Mengolini)。

During this call, we will be referring to a few slides, which have been posted on our investor website, www.rclinvestor.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考幾張投影片，這些投影片已發佈在我們的投資者網站 www.rclinvestor.com 上。

Before we get started, I would like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements, which is on our first slide. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking. These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties. Examples are described in our SEC filings and other disclosures.

在我們開始之前，我想請您參閱我們關於前瞻性陳述的通知，該通知位於我們的第一張投影片上。在這次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性評論。這些陳述並不保證未來的業績，並且確實涉及風險和不確定性。我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他揭露的資訊中描述了範例。

Please note that we do not undertake to update the information in our filings as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP historical items can be found on our website.

請注意，我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新我們提交的文件中的資訊。此外，我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標根據定義進行調整，並且所有非 GAAP 歷史項目的調整表可以在我們的網站上找到。

Richard will begin the call by providing a strategic overview of the business. I will then follow up with a recap of our third quarter results, I will then provide an update on our latest liquidity actions. And we'll then provide an update on the booking environment. We will then open the call for your questions. Richard?

理查德將首先提供業務的策略概述。然後我將回顧我們第三季的業績，然後提供我們最新流動性行動的最新資訊。然後我們將提供預訂環境的最新資訊。然後我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。理查德？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning to everybody. It's been almost 7 months since we paused our cruise operations and every single day has been extremely frustrating and challenging on so many levels. But while emotionally and financially it hurts us tremendously to see our ships laid up, we've tried to use this time to good effect. Our teams, together with the Healthy Sail Panel, have worked tirelessly to produce a thoughtful set of health protocols to resume operations. Simultaneously, our finance team has worked aggressively in securing liquidity to position the company well to the recovery.

謝謝你，傑森，祝大家早安。自從我們暫停遊輪營運以來已經過去了近 7 個月，每一天在許多層面上都非常令人沮喪和充滿挑戰。儘管看到我們的船隻閒置在情感和經濟上都對我們造成了極大的傷害，但我們還是試圖利用這段時間取得良好的效果。我們的團隊與健康航行小組一起不懈努力，制定了一套深思熟慮的健康協議以恢復運作。同時，我們的財務團隊積極努力確保流動性，以使公司能夠順利復甦。

One of the most frustrating elements of COVID-19 is how little the world knew at the beginning of this pandemic about the virus and how many false paths we have all gone down over this period. Fortunately, the sciences made remarkable strides and there are a few observations and predictions that we can make.

COVID-19 最令人沮喪的因素之一是，在這場大流行之初，世界對這種病毒知之甚少，而在此期間，我們都走了多少條錯誤的道路。幸運的是，科學取得了顯著的進步，我們可以做出一些觀察和預測。

We are seeing an upsurge in infections in the United States and in other countries around the world. The experts seem to expect a second wave over the coming months. After 7 months of agony, the prospect of a further surge is beyond frustrating.

我們看到美國和世界其他國家的感染病例激增。專家似乎預計未來幾個月將出現第二波疫情。經過 7 個月的痛苦之後，進一步飆升的前景令人沮喪。

However, the advances on the science fronts give us optimism that this coming surge will not be as devastating as the early surges in March and April, and it will lead to a better 2021. Therapies are dramatically better and they are more effective. Testing capabilities are already at extraordinary levels and moving higher. And the progress on vaccines has advanced at unprecedented speeds.

然而，科學前沿的進展讓我們樂觀地認為，即將到來的激增不會像3 月和4 月的早期激增那樣具有破壞性，並且將帶來更好的2021 年。治療方法明顯更好，也更有效。測試能力已經達到非凡水平，並且還在不斷提高。疫苗的進展正以前所未有的速度推進。

Personally, at this point in this unfathomable crisis, I feel more positive that we're beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. That light needs new batteries, but the light is clearly visible. Please don't get me wrong. I don't mean to minimize the trauma that this disease is causing and will continue to cause. But progress is being made and that progress is fundamental for our recovery.

就我個人而言，在這場深不可測的危機中，我感到更加積極，因為我們開始看到隧道盡頭的曙光。此燈需要新電池，但燈清晰可見。請不要誤會我的意思。我並不是想要最小化這種疾病正在造成並將繼續造成的創傷。但正在取得進展，這種進展對於我們的復甦至關重要。

As you should know by now, this past September, the Healthy Sail Panel submitted their recommendations to us and the CDC and they were extremely well received. We all know that we can't eliminate all risk of COVID-19 or anything else for that matter. Therefore, we ask the panel to help us to meet 2 specific goals: One, to reduce the risk of COVID below the level in our guest home communities; and two, to ensure that we can properly handle a COVID incident on board effectively and without inconveniencing all the guests or the local community.

正如您現在應該知道的那樣，去年 9 月，健康帆小組向我們和疾病預防控制中心提交了他們的建議，並且得到了非常好的回應。我們都知道，我們無法消除 COVID-19 或其他任何相關風險的所有風險。因此，我們要求專家小組幫助我們實現 2 個具體目標：一是將新冠病毒風險降低到我們的賓客之家社區的水平以下；第二，確保我們能有效妥善處理船上的新冠疫情事件，且不會對所有客人或當地社區造成不便。

The panel made 74 specific recommendations towards accomplishing these 2 goals. By implementing their recommendations, we intend to make our ships and environment a bubble, if you will, that presents less risk of transmission than our guests would find on land. The entire industry here has agreed to abide by these recommendations, and we believe they can serve as a foundation for a gradual and methodical healthy return to service.

該小組為實現這兩個目標提出了 74 項具體建議。透過實施他們的建議，我們打算讓我們的船舶和環境成為一個泡沫（如果您願意的話），這比我們的客人在陸地上發現的傳播風險更小。這裡的整個產業都同意遵守這些建議，我們相信它們可以作為逐步、有條不紊地健康復原服務的基礎。

The CDC and other regulators have been working on this for a long time. We are grateful for the CDC's focus on health and the time they and their observers have spent on this important topic with the Healthy Sail Panel. I don't want to anticipate any decisions that the CDC might take when the current no sail order expires. But I am optimistic that through our continued dialogue and the pathway that we have outlined, we are moving in the direction of a healthy return to service.

疾病預防控制中心和其他監管機構長期以來一直在努力解決這個問題。我們感謝疾病預防控制中心對健康的關注，以及他們和他們的觀察員與健康航行小組一起在這一重要主題上花費的時間。我不想預測疾病預防控制中心在目前禁航令到期後可能會做出的任何決定。但我樂觀地認為，透過我們持續的對話和我們概述的途徑，我們正在朝著健康恢復服務的方向前進。

We propose to start slowly by training our crew and embarking on a series of nonrevenue trial sailings where we can rehearse and validate the new protocols. The panel has recommended that this process be carefully evaluated by independent outside observers and we will do that.

我們建議慢慢開始，培訓我們的船員，並開始一系列非營利試航，我們可以在其中排練和驗證新協議。該小組建議由獨立的外部觀察員仔細評估這一過程，我們將這樣做。

And then, only on a ship or 2 at first and in a gradual and methodical way we expect to start sailing again. There'll be short cruises at first with limited destinations and controlled shore excursions. But as we learn and as the science continues to improve, we will expand.

然後，一開始只乘坐一兩艘船，並以漸進和有條理的方式再次開始航行。首先會有短途巡航，目的地有限，並有受控的海岸遊覽。但隨著我們的學習和科學的不斷進步，我們將會擴展。

Now besides the CDC in the United States, we're also working with governments and health authorities across the globe to resume operations in a healthy and phased manner. Notably, TUI cruises, Hapag-Lloyd and Silversea have all already started sailing again, only with a few ships, but it is a start. And this month, the Singaporean government gave us the approval to sail as well. As a result, Quantum of the Seas will begin cruising in that region in December.

現在，除了美國疾管中心之外，我們也與全球各國政府和衛生當局合作，以健康、分階段的方式恢復營運。值得注意的是，途易遊輪、赫伯羅特和銀海郵輪都已經重新開始航行，雖然只有幾艘船，但這只是一個開始。這個月，新加坡政府也批准我們航行。因此，海洋量子號將於 12 月開始在該地區航行。

Now before I turn the call back to Jason, I want to say that I'm immensely proud of all our people, partners, travel advisers, lenders and guests for sticking with us and helping us get to this point. The workload has been tremendous and the pressure and the uncertainty, nonstop. There's still more work to be done and the environment is still uncertain. But our industry has faced significant challenges in the past and yet it has continued to demonstrate that it can overcome them. Not only overcome them, but continue to thrive and grow. Why? Simply because the product, the vacations that we offer, are so extraordinary, and some would argue that the value is even higher.

現在，在我把電話轉回給傑森之前，我想說，我對我們所有的員工、合作夥伴、旅遊顧問、貸款人和客人一直支持我們並幫助我們走到這一步感到非常自豪。工作量龐大，壓力和不確定性持續不斷。還有更多的工作要做，環境仍然不確定。但我們的產業過去曾面臨重大挑戰，但它不斷證明我們可以克服這些挑戰。不僅克服它們，而且繼續蓬勃發展和成長。為什麼？僅僅因為我們提供的產品和假期是如此非凡，有些人會認為價值甚至更高。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Jason to talk through the numbers some more. Jason?

說完，我會將電話轉回傑森，進一步討論這些數字。傑森？

Thank you, Richard. This morning, we reported adjusted net loss of $1.2 billion in a quarter with muted revenues, as all sailings that should have been recorded during the period were canceled. These painful results were underpinned by a strong focus on reducing operating expenses. As a result, our cruise operating expenses are down more than 80% or $1.2 billion versus our first quarter and $371 million or 55% versus our last quarter as the fleet transitioned to its various levels of layup, reaching their desired state by the end of August.

謝謝你，理查。今天早上，我們報告了一個季度調整後的淨虧損 12 億美元，收入低迷，因為該期間所有本應記錄的航班都被取消。這些痛苦的結果得益於對減少營運費用的強烈關注。因此，隨著船隊過渡到不同程度的閒置狀態，我們的郵輪營運費用比第一季下降了80% 以上，即12 億美元，比上季下降了3.71 億美元，即55%，並在2017年底達到了預期狀態。八月。

Our top financial priority remains ensuring that we are in a strong liquidity position. To that end, we have continued to take opportunistic actions to improve our liquidity. During the month of August, we obtained a 1-year commitment for a $700 million unsecured guaranteed 364-day facility. Including this new financing, we ended the third quarter with $3.7 billion in available liquidity.

我們的首要財務任務仍然是確保我們處於強大的流動性狀況。為此，我們繼續採取機會主義行動來改善我們的流動性。 8 月份，我們獲得了為期 1 年的 7 億美元無擔保 364 天擔保貸款承諾。包括這筆新融資在內，我們第三季末的可用流動資金為 37 億美元。

Moreover, during this month, we bolstered our overall liquidity even further by raising an additional $1.15 billion through a combination of convertible notes and a public offering of common stock. The convertible notes and equity offerings were multiple times oversubscribed, and our convertible notes were priced at a rate of 2.875% with a conversion premium of 37.5%. This was really a superb outcome and a testament to the value of our brands and to the amazing execution of our finance, legal and accounting teams. We believe that the additional liquidity provides us important flexibility, both as we plan for a gradual return to service and as we look to delever our balance sheet and our path back to investment-grade metrics.

此外，本月我們透過可轉換票據和公開發行普通股的方式額外籌集了 11.5 億美元，進一步增強了整體流動性。可轉換票據及股票發行均獲得數倍超額認購，可轉換票據定價為2.875%，轉換溢價為37.5%。這確實是一個極好的結果，證明了我們品牌的價值以及我們財務、法律和會計團隊的出色執行力。我們相信，額外的流動性為我們提供了重要的靈活性，無論是我們計劃逐步恢復服務，還是我們尋求去槓桿化資產負債表和回歸投資級指標。

As it pertains to our cash spend, we spent approximately $1.1 billion in the third quarter, driven mainly by ship operating expenses. These expenses came sequentially down each month as our ships entered their various levels of layup.

就我們的現金支出而言，我們第三季的支出約為 11 億美元，主要是由船舶營運費用推動的。隨著我們的船舶進入不同程度的閒置狀態，這些費用每個月都在逐月下降。

Notably, during the third quarter, our average monthly cash burn was consistent with our previously announced range for a prolonged suspension when excluding cash refunds of customer deposits, commissions, debt obligations, cash inflows from new and existing bookings and fees and collateral postings relating to our financing and hedging activity.

值得注意的是，在第三季度，我們的平均每月現金消耗與我們先前宣布的長期暫停範圍一致，其中不包括客戶存款的現金退款、佣金、債務義務、新的和現有預訂的現金流入以及與相關費用和抵押過帳有關的費用。我們的融資和對沖活動。

This morning, we reaffirmed that the cash burn will be, on average, in the range of $250 million to $290 million per month during a prolonged suspension of operations. As we mentioned in the press release this morning, this number excludes refunds of customer deposits, debt obligations, commissions as well as cash inflows from new and existing bookings.

今天早上，我們重申，在長期停業期間，平均每月的現金消耗將在 2.5 億至 2.9 億美元之間。正如我們在今天早上的新聞稿中提到的，這個數字不包括客戶押金退款、債務、佣金以及新預訂和現有預訂的現金流入。

When we return to service and start to rev up our sales and marketing machines, we anticipate the customer deposits and cash inflows from operations will further improve our cash position. However, in addition to increased sales and marketing activities, ramping up our business will also include start-up costs related to bringing our amazing crew back to operations and costs related to some of the healthy return to service protocols.

當我們恢復服務並開始加速我們的銷售和行銷機器時，我們預計客戶存款和營運現金流入將進一步改善我們的現金狀況。然而，除了增加銷售和行銷活動之外，擴大我們的業務還包括與讓我們出色的船員恢復營運相關的啟動成本以及與一些健康恢復服務協議相關的成本。

I know that you would all like to understand precisely what those cash flows and costs will be, but the fluidity of the situation makes providing such guidance impossible today. What I would say is that we look to be very thoughtful as to the cadence of how we will bring our fleet back up to its pre-COVID levels. The ramp-up will not be a light switch but instead, capacity will increase based on a set of criteria.

我知道你們都想準確了解這些現金流和成本是多少，但情況的流動性使得今天無法提供此類指導。我想說的是，對於如何將我們的機隊恢復到新冠疫情前的水平，我們看起來非常深思熟慮。提升不會是電燈開關，而是容量將根據一組標準增加。

First and foremost, our decision-making will be guided by the safety of our guests and crew. Also, we want to ensure that we are delivering the world-class vacations that our guests expect and that we are bringing the ships back in the most profitable way, which will be mainly guided by our demand profile. Also, we will continue to evaluate more actions that can be taken to further reshape our cost structure and improve our operating leverage as we return to service.

首先也是最重要的是，我們的決策將以客人和船員的安全為指導。此外，我們希望確保我們能夠提供客人所期望的世界一流的假期，並確保我們以最有利可圖的方式讓船隻回歸，這將主要以我們的需求狀況為導向。此外，我們將繼續評估可以採取的更多行動，以進一步重塑我們的成本結構並在恢復服務時提高我們的營運槓桿。

Another element that impacts our cash flow is our capital expenditures. As we reported this morning, we expect these to be approximately $500 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 and $2.1 billion for 2021. Approximately 80% of these expenditures do relate to new build projects, the majority of which have committed financing already in place.

影響我們現金流的另一個因素是我們的資本支出。正如我們今天早上報導的那樣，我們預計2020 年第四季度的支出約為5 億美元，2021 年的支出約為21 億美元。這些支出中約80% 確實與新建項目有關，其中大多數已承諾融資已經到位。

As it relates to 2020, the capital expenditures include the delivery of the Silver Moon this week. And for 2021, they include the delivery of Odyssey of the Seas during the first quarter and Silver Dawn during the fourth quarter.

就 2020 年而言，資本支出包括本週銀月號的交付。 2021 年，其中包括第一季交付的《海洋奧德賽》和第四季交付的《銀色黎明》。

Now I will provide an update on the business, starting first with our capacity. As I previously noted, the situation regarding our return to service is fluid. But we are currently planning for a very limited initial return and a gradual ramp-up during the first half of 2021. As a result, our 2021 capacity will be significantly lower than 2019. Deployment in the spring is expected to be highly focused on short sailings from key dry markets in both the U.S. and Asia Pacific regions. We also -- we will also make the most out of our incredible private destination in the Bahamas, Perfect Day at CocoCay.

現在我將介紹業務的最新情況，首先從我們的產能開始。正如我之前指出的，我們恢復服務的情況並不穩定。但我們目前計劃的初始​​回報非常有限，並在 2021 年上半年逐步增加。因此，我們 2021 年的產能將顯著低於 2019 年。春季的部署預計將高度集中在短期從美國和亞太地區的主要乾貨市場出發的航班。我們還將充分利用我們在巴哈馬群島令人難以置信的私人目的地——CocoCay 的完美一天。

Now I'll provide you an update on what we are seeing in the demand environment for 2021 sailings. On our last earnings call, I had commented that the cadence of demand was generally determined by COVID-19 cases, and that has mostly continued to be the case. Over the last couple of months, with very minimal marketing activities, we have seen a steady improvement in bookings for 2021, with summer sailings mainly driving the uptick in demand. Bookings for the spring season have remained below pre-COVID-19 levels, which is consistent with our staggered return to service approach and lower planned occupancy expectations.

現在，我將向您介紹我們在 2021 年航行的需求環境中所看到的最新情況。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我曾評論說，需求的節奏通常是由 COVID-19 病例決定的，而這種情況基本上仍然如此。在過去的幾個月裡，透過極少的行銷活動，我們看到 2021 年的預訂量穩步增長，其中夏季航班主要推動了需求的成長。春季的預訂量仍低於新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情之前的水平，這與我們分階段恢復服務的方式和較低的計劃入住率預期相一致。

From a cumulative standpoint, our book load factors for sailings in the second half of 2021 is within historical ranges at prices that are down slightly. When you exclude the dilutionary impact of the FCCs, pricing for the second half of the year is relatively flat.

從累計角度來看，我們 2021 年下半年航班的訂座率處於歷史範圍內，價格略有下降。如果排除 FCC 的稀釋影響，下半年的定價相對持平。

Overall, 2021 is continuing to benefit from the rebooking activities associated with FCC and Lift & Shift program. However, approximately 80% of all of our 2021 bookings made to date are new, and more than 65% of bookings made since early August have been new. For the full year, pricing is relatively flat, the same time last year, and is up slightly when you exclude the negative impact of the bookings made with 125% FCCs.

總體而言，2021 年將繼續受益於與 FCC 和 Lift & Shift 計劃相關的重新預訂活動。然而，迄今為止，我們 2021 年所有預訂中約有 80% 是新預訂，自 8 月初以來，超過 65% 的預訂都是新預訂。就全年而言，定價與去年同期相比相對持平，如果排除 125% FCC 預訂的負面影響，則略有上漲。

Now about 3 weeks ago, we announced the Quantum of the Seas will start sailing from Singapore on December 1. And over the following week of the announcement, we saw bookings spike up significantly. While this is just 1 out of a fleet of 53 ships, it clearly highlights the pent-up demand for cruising.

大約三週前，我們宣布海洋量子號將於 12 月 1 日從新加坡開始航行。在宣布這一消息的接下來一周，我們看到預訂量大幅增加。雖然這只是 53 艘船中的一艘，但它清楚地凸顯了被壓抑的巡航需求。

Now regarding our customer deposits, the balance at the end of September was $1.8 billion, relatively equal to the balance reported in our last quarterly update, as inflows from new bookings mostly offset the outflows from refunds.

現在就我們的客戶存款而言，9 月底的餘額為 18 億美元，與我們上一季更新中報告的餘額相對相等，因為新預訂的流入大部分抵消了退款的流出。

Approximately half of our customer deposit balance is associated with FCCs and half is related to new deposits for future sailings. Moreover, about 1/3 of the overall balance is nonrefundable. Also, approximately half of the guests who booked on the canceled sailings have requested refunds, with the other 50% either holding an FCC or lifting and shifting their booking to 2021.

我們的客戶存款餘額中大約一半與 FCC 相關，一半與未來航行的新存款相關。此外，大約1/3的總餘額是不可退還的。此外，預訂被取消航班的乘客中約有一半要求退款，另外 50% 的乘客要么持有 FCC，要么取消預訂並將其移至 2021 年。

As it pertains to our financial results for the fourth quarter, I'll note that the timing and trajectory of the recovery still remains uncertain, and we are, therefore, unable to provide further guidance for the year. We do expect, however, to incur a net loss on both the U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the fourth quarter and 2020 fiscal year. The magnitude of loss will depend on the timing and extent of our return to service.

由於這與我們第四季度的財務表現有關，我要指出的是，復甦的時間和軌跡仍然不確定，因此我們無法提供今年的進一步指導。然而，我們確實預期第四季和 2020 財年的美國公認會計原則和調整後基礎將出現淨虧損。損失的嚴重程度將取決於我們恢復服務的時間和程度。

Lastly, I'd like to thank our teams across the whole enterprise for all they've done through these extraordinary times. As Richard mentioned, these 7 months have been challenging on so many levels, but we're all pulling through it together and exceptionally dedicated and committed to getting our business back. I know that we'll all emerge a stronger, more resilient company.

最後，我要感謝整個企業的團隊在這些非凡的時期所做的一切。正如理查德所提到的，這 7 個月在許多層面上都充滿挑戰，但我們都在共同渡過難關，並且非常專注並致力於恢復我們的業務。我知道我們都會成為一家更強大、更有彈性的公司。

And with that, I will ask Shelby to open up the call for a question-and-answer session. Shelby?

接下來，我將請謝爾比開啟問答環節。謝爾比？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Robin Farley of UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. I know you don't want to jump ahead of anything the CDC might do in the next couple of days. But I wonder if you could share with us a little bit about what factors they've expressed are important to them. Because you mentioned that one of the goals of the Healthy Sail Panel was to have the incidence rate of the virus be better than it is on land. And that's certainly the case, I guess, with the cruises in Italy from other brands that test everybody before they got on board. It's been like less than 0.1% or something incidence rate. So is that -- in other words, is that what matters most to the CDC from your discussions with them when they think about restarting? Or are there other factors that you think are more important than that?

偉大的。我知道你不想搶在疾病預防控制中心在未來幾天內可能採取的任何行動之前。但我想知道您能否與我們分享他們所表達的哪些因素對他們來說很重要。因為你提到健康航行小組的目標之一是讓病毒的發生率比在陸地上更好。我想，情況確實如此，其他品牌在義大利的遊輪在每個人上船之前都會對他們進行測試。發病率好像不到 0.1% 左右。那麼，換句話說，當疾病預防控制中心考慮重啟時，你與他們的討論中，這對他們來說是最重要的嗎？或者您認為還有其他因素比這更重要嗎？

Well, it's a complex subject and I don't claim to be the expert on this. And the -- we, together with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, put together this panel. And they spent 4 months going through the details of this process. They did so with the CDC observers at the meetings. And there are a lot of factors.

嗯，這是一個複雜的主題，我並不聲稱自己是這方面的專家。我們與挪威郵輪控股公司一起組成了這個小組。他們花了 4 個月的時間來完成這個過程的細節。他們在會議上與疾控中心觀察員一起這樣做了。還有很多因素。

And we've talked about that before, Robin, where we believe that there are things that make ships more demanding in terms of what you might want to take. But there's also the advantage that the ship has. And the biggest advantage is that we have a controlled environment. And so that we can do -- and the whole industry here has accepted to abide by the 74 recommendations. And a big part of that is to create this kind of bubble in the beginning, to do screening. No other industry that I know of has agreed to do 100% screening of everyone. And I think that's a big part of what makes this a viable project.

我們之前已經討論過這一點，羅賓，我們相信有些事情會讓船舶對你可能想要攜帶的東西提出更高的要求。但這艘船也有優勢。最大的優勢是我們有一個受控的環境。這樣我們就能做到－整個產業都同意遵守這 74 個建議。其中很大一部分是在一開始就創造這種泡沫，進行篩選。據我所知，沒有其他行業同意對每個人進行 100% 的篩檢。我認為這是使這個項目成為可行的一個重要原因。

But I think I would be very cautious about speaking on behalf of the CDC. I think they're looking at all aspects of it. As I say, they were at all the Healthy Sail Panel meetings and we've had discussions with them. And I think they're trying to put all of that together. And I don't think at this stage -- also they're going through a process that we don't necessarily see all of. So I think you also have to remember that, that is -- not all of this is visible to us. But they're looking at all the aspects of it. And I think the no sail order is due to expire shortly anyhow. So I think we're evenly and hopefully waiting for their specific comments.

但我認為我在代表疾病預防控制中心發言時會非常謹慎。我認為他們正在考慮各個方面。正如我所說，他們參加了所有健康航行小組會議，我們與他們進行了討論。我認為他們正試圖將所有這些整合在一起。我認為在現階段，他們正在經歷一個我們不一定能看到全部的過程。所以我認為你還必須記住這一點，即——並非所有這些都是我們可見的。但他們正在考慮它的所有方面。我認為禁航令無論如何都會很快到期。所以我認為我們正在等待他們的具體評論。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up question. I think one of the things when we think about the cash burn rate and restarting is potentially the risk of restarting and then having to stop again, that maybe the cash burn would go up. Just we saw AIDA this morning say that they're going to pause in Germany for the month of November. Is there -- can you give us some thoughts about what -- when you restart, what could be -- whether it's like crew contracts are only going to be month-to-month and not 6 months, or things that might keep your expenses from sort of going back up and then having to carry higher expenses again in the case of perhaps a pause somewhere.

好的。偉大的。然後作為後續問題。我認為，當我們考慮現金消耗率和重新啟動時，其中一件事可能是重新啟動然後不得不再次停止的風險，也許現金消耗會上升。今天早上我們就看到 AIDA 說他們將在 11 月在德國暫停。您能否給我們一些想法，當您重新啟動時，可能會發生什麼，是否是船員合約只是按月而不是 6 個月，或者可能會保留您的開支避免某種程度的恢復，然後在某個地方暫停的情況下不得不再次承擔更高的費用。

Robin, I think one of the kind of key things to point to is we've operated about 70 sailings now between TUI cruises and Hapag-Lloyd cruises and Silversea cruises, utilizing the protocols that have been developed and put forward by the recommendations with the Healthy Sail Panel. And as you pointed out, yes, the number of cases are exceptionally low and it shows that the protocols do work.

羅賓，我認為需要指出的關鍵事情之一是，我們現在已經在途易遊輪、赫伯羅特遊輪和銀海遊輪之間運營了大約 70 趟航班，利用了由建議制定和提出的協議。健康帆板。正如您所指出的，是的，病例數非常低，這表明這些協議確實有效。

And so we are very, very focused on doing whatever we possibly can for there not to be a situation where we come online and then we have to go off-line. And while -- sure, nothing is perfect, I think the protocols have shown they're working.

因此，我們非常非常專注於盡我們所能，避免我們上線然後必須離線的情況。當然，沒有什麼是完美的，但我認為這些協議已經表明它們正在發揮作用。

The second thing I would say is -- and this kind of goes back to my comments around slowly ramping up the business. We do look to do this in a very methodical way, where we're able to see -- have test cruises and have cruises. And as we're looking at those cruises, really watching how they're performing on both an experience level, a safety level, profitability level, and then slowly kind of turning the dial back up to kind of avoid a situation where we have to bring all of our crew back, which took us many, many months to do between the spring and the summer.

我要說的第二件事是——這可以追溯到我關於緩慢發展業務的評論。我們確實希望以一種非常有條理的方式做到這一點，我們能夠看到——進行測試巡航並進行巡航。當我們關注這些郵輪時，真正觀察它們在體驗水平、安全水平、盈利水平方面的表現，然後慢慢地調整旋鈕以避免我們必須這樣做的情況。把我們所有的船員帶回來，這花了我們從春天到夏天很多個月的時間。

So I think we're being very thoughtful. We're learning a lot through the sailings that have already occurred, which provides us confidence. And then, of course, I think by just solely ramping up the business, it avoids too much pressure on our cash burn.

所以我認為我們考慮得非常周到。我們透過已經發生的航行學到了很多東西，這給了我們信心。當然，我認為僅僅透過擴大業務，就可以避免對我們的現金消耗造成太大壓力。

Robin, because the question you've asked is, I mean, I think it's so apt and it is something that people are focused on, I'd like to maybe embellish a little bit Jason's comments as well. Because this whole concept of the trial voyages is really quite important, we're not just suddenly coming back. It's going to take a while to organize those voyages. And we're going to have the opportunity to see the protocols in action and to adjust them.

羅賓，因為你問的問題是，我的意思是，我認為這是非常恰當的，這是人們關注的問題，我也想稍微修飾一下傑森的評論。因為試航的整個概念確實非常重要，所以我們不會突然回來。組織這些航行需要一段時間。我們將有機會看到協議的實際應用並對其進行調整。

So frankly, I don't think we're going to be making the big leap until we and the other authorities and our Healthy Sail Panel are all comfortable that this is now a viable thing to do. And we really do believe that it is possible to make it so that you are safer on a cruise ship than you are on main street. And the evidence in the start ups in Europe have demonstrated that. And when there have been instances, and there will be, because there are everywhere, we've -- I think you've seen the response has worked. That's really the key.

坦白說，我認為我們不會有重大飛躍，除非我們和其他當局以及我們的健康航行小組都認為這是現在可行的事情。我們確實相信，有可能讓您在遊輪上比在大街上更安全。歐洲新創企業的證據已經證明了這一點。當已經出現這種情況時，並且將會出現這種情況，因為無處不在，我們已經——我想你們已經看到應對措施是有效的。這確實是關鍵。

And so we think that this slow trial trips and the slow start ups will give us the opportunity, one, to watch the technology improve and the knowledge of the virus improve; and two, to prove out our protocols. And I think that's why we're so optimistic about where this is leading.

因此，我們認為這種緩慢的試驗和緩慢的啟動將為我們提供機會，一是看到技術的進步和對病毒的了解的提高；二是觀察技術的進步和對病毒的認識的提高。第二，證明我們的協議。我認為這就是為什麼我們對這趨勢如此樂觀。

Your next question is from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

Richard, understanding that this is kind of a sensitive subject. Just wondering what you think the CDC needs to see for them to give you the green light. What are the key metrics they're looking for?

理查德知道這是一個敏感話題。只是想知道您認為疾病預防控制中心需要看到什麼才能為您開綠燈。他們正在尋找哪些關鍵指標？

And then also just with TUI and Hapag-Lloyd in Germany and with the German shutdown, what do you think is going to happen with those lines?

然後，德國的 TUI 和 Hapag-Lloyd 以及德國的停工，您認為這些線路會發生什麼？

Sure. And as you say, this is a sensitive time. We're not part of their process. And so I think it really would be awkward for me to speak on -- and wrong for me to speak on behalf of the CDC. I think they're looking at all aspects of it. And it is very complicated. And I think we really made some dramatic inroads with the work of the Healthy Sail Panel. To have people of this level of expertise, this level of experience, this isn't -- these aren't just leading experts in the field, these are the leading experts with -- with the experience of regulating as well.

當然。正如你所說，這是一個敏感時期。我們不是他們流程的一部分。因此，我認為我發言確實會很尷尬，代表疾病預防控制中心發言也是錯誤的。我認為他們正在考慮各個方面。而且非常複雜。我認為我們透過健康航行小組的工作確實取得了一些重大進展。擁有這種程度的專業知識、這種程度的經驗的人，這些人不僅僅是該領域的領先專家，他們也是具有監管經驗的領先專家。

So I think we learned a lot in that process and the cooperation with the CDC was very helpful. But I can't predict how they will do it here. And so I'm not too much willing to comment on it, except to say I'm assuming that if you really look at the fairly long -- and I know it's dry, but analysis that was done by the safety panel. And you see the depth of detail they went into and the transparency that they had, I think that should give the CDC a lot of comfort. And I think that plus the trial trips. The trial trips are important. That was an important issue for our Healthy Sail Panel, and I think it will be an important point for the CDC. And I'm very optimistic that, that will go well.

所以我認為我們在這個過程中學到了很多東西，與疾管中心的合作非常有幫助。但我無法預測他們會如何在這裡做到這一點。所以我不太願意對此發表評論，只是說我假設如果你真的看一下相當長的內容——我知道它很枯燥，但分析是由安全小組完成的。你可以看到他們所了解的細節的深度和他們所擁有的透明度，我認為這應該會給疾病預防控制中心帶來很大的安慰。我認為加上試航。試航很重要。這對我們的健康航行小組來說是一個重要議題，我認為這對疾病預防控制中心來說也將是一個重要議題。我非常樂觀地認為，一切都會順利。

The second part of your question was on TUI and Hapag-Lloyd.

你問題的第二部分是關於途易和赫伯羅特。

On TUI.

在途易上。

Yes.

是的。

So they continue to operate because we have seen such good results. And frankly, the knowledge that we're getting from these operations is helpful to us, it's helpful to the CDC. We are seeing both an ability to limit the spread on to the ship, and we're seeing an ability to deal with incidents when they occur to keep it from becoming an outbreak.

所以他們繼續運作，因為我們看到了這麼好的結果。坦白說，我們從這些行動中獲得的知識對我們有幫助，對疾病預防控制中心也有幫助。我們看到了限制病毒在船上傳播的能力，以及在事件發生時進行處理以防止其爆發的能力。

And so I think that experience is positive for us. And it's small, we understand that, we're not rushing to do this. We've said from the beginning we're not going to go until we and the experts are convinced that this is the right thing to be doing and it's safe and prudent, and we're sticking to that. But we are learning from this, and that will make us safer and healthier as we go forward.

所以我認為這段經歷對我們來說是正面的。而且規模很小，我們知道，我們並不急於這樣做。我們從一開始就說過，除非我們和專家都確信這是正確的做法，而且是安全和謹慎的，否則我們不會去，我們將堅持這一點。但我們正在從中學習，這將使我們在前進的過程中更安全、更健康。

I guess I was just wondering if the German shutdown was going to affect those brands.

我想我只是想知道德國的停工是否會影響這些品牌。

It does not appear to be, no. And again, that's because of the success of the protocols.

看來不是，不是。再說一遍，這是因為協議的成功。

Okay. Great. And then -- okay, so the next question is a little even more sensitive, and I apologize for this. But we just -- we get a lot of questions on this almost daily. And I'm just going to caveat it with I do not think this is the place for political commentary. So there you have it.

好的。偉大的。然後——好吧，所以下一個問題更加敏感，我為此道歉。但我們幾乎每天都會收到很多關於這方面的問題。我只是想警告一下，我認為這裡不是發表政治評論的地方。所以你有它。

But we are getting asked all the time to walk investors through a scenario where the CDC no sail order is extended to after the election and, how or if, a potential Biden administration would have any impact on when the order would be lifted.

但我們總是被要求向投資者介紹一種情況，即疾病預防控制中心的禁航令將延長至大選後，以及潛在的拜登政府將如何或是否會對何時取消該命令產生任何影響。

So I'm quite pleased that we're working cooperatively with the experts. And it is my strong hope that this is going to be decided on the basis of the science, not on the politics. I'll express a personal view that I will be pleased to get my television and my computer back when the election ads are over. But I think our focus is on the science.

所以我很高興我們與專家們合作。我強烈希望這將在科學的基礎上做出決定，而不是在政治的基礎上。我將表達個人觀點，選舉廣告結束後我會很高興拿回我的電視和電腦。但我認為我們的重點是科學。

We think the industry has done a very strong job, the whole industry. I talked about the Healthy Sail Panel, but I also remind you that before the startup in Europe, they all used experts to guide that. They all worked with the governments. It wasn't a political issue. It was a scientific issue. I think the science is strong. And so I'm definitely hopeful that regardless of who's in power, the science will lead us to a good answer.

我們認為這個產業、整個產業都做得非常出色。我講了健康帆小組，但我也提醒大家，在歐洲創業之前，他們都是請專家來指導的。他們都與政府合作。這不是一個政治問題。這是一個科學問題。我認為科學是強大的。因此，我絕對希望，無論誰掌權，科學都會引導我們找到一個好的答案。

But the other thing is that people do want to see the industry back in operation. There's a lot of people suffering because we're out of work. And if we can restart one important element of our economy in a safe and healthy way, I think that's in everybody's interest.

但另一件事是，人們確實希望看到該行業重新運作。有很多人因為我們失業而受苦。如果我們能夠以安全和健康的方式重啟經濟的一個重要組成部分，我認為這符合每個人的利益。

Your next question is from Steve Wieczynski of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So Richard, I'd hate to do this to you, but I'm going to keep you on the hot seat a little bit here. And I'm not even sure this is a -- I'm not sure if this is going to be a fair question or not, so you can tell me one way or the other. But I think there have been rumors out there that you have had direct conversations with the White House. And maybe if you did or you did not, anything there that could help us understand how those conversations, if there were conversations, how they progressed? And maybe what the White House is looking for that's different from the CDC, if that makes sense?

所以理查德，我不想對你這樣做，但我會讓你有點尷尬。我什至不確定這是一個——我不確定這是否是一個公平的問題，所以你可以以一種或另一種方式告訴我。但我認為有傳言稱您已與白宮進行了直接對話。也許無論你是否這樣做，有什麼可以幫助我們理解這些對話，如果有對話，它們是如何進展的？也許白宮正在尋找的東西與疾病預防控制中心不同，如果這有意義的話？

So I'll have conversations with anyone who will talk to us on this subject. We're sort of obsessive. I'd like to get out of my house after 7 months. And there obviously is a lot of interest in this throughout the country. This is a huge issue for employment in our country, the cruise industry is an important employer, an important driver of economic activity. And also, it's a respite, and I think it will be soon seen as a respite from the isolation that we're all feeling here.

因此，我將與任何願意與我們談論這個主題的人進行對話。我們有點著迷。 7個月後我想離開家。顯然全國各地對此都很感興趣。這對我國就業來說是一個巨大的問題，郵輪業是重要的雇主，也是經濟活動的重要驅動力。而且，這是一個喘息的機會，我認為這很快就會被視為我們在這裡感受到的孤立感的喘息機會。

Steve, I certainly never mind your questions. And I think -- but you'll also understand what I can and can't say. And the conversations I've had are private and I would respect the privacy of those. But I will say that we have worked hard to make sure that the decision is a scientific one, that it is led by the best minds with experience, both in terms of the specific science of the disease and of the engineering and of the -- everything else as well as the impact on the economy and how you regulate this.

史蒂夫，我當然不介意你的問題。我想——但你也會明白我能說什麼和不能說什麼。我進行的談話是私人的，我會尊重他們的隱私。但我要說的是，我們一直在努力確保這一決定是科學的，是由最有經驗的頭腦領導的，無論是在疾病的具體科學方面，還是在工程方面，以及——其他一切以及對經濟的影響以及如何監管。

So we've talked essentially to all the people who are involved in this kind of decision. And I think I have to say that everybody we've talked to has taken this seriously. They understand the importance of controlling the spread of this virus. They understand the importance of getting the protocols right. And I'm really -- I really am very excited to watch the methodical way that the panel worked. And other panels, you saw this in the cooperation in Europe between the public health officials and the political officials and the cruise lines, cooperatively trying to solve something that's a problem for all of us.

因此，我們基本上與參與此類決策的所有人員進行了交談。我想我不得不說，我們交談過的每個人都認真對待了這個問題。他們了解控制這種病毒傳播的重要性。他們了解正確制定協議的重要性。我真的——我真的很高興看到該小組有條不紊的工作方式。在其他小組中，您在歐洲公共衛生官員、政治官員和郵輪公司之間的合作中看到了這一點，共同努力解決我們所有人面臨的問題。

And I'm not -- I'm really not going to comment on who's on what on any given issue. It is complicated. I think everybody is trying to find the right solution. I'm optimistic. I am optimistic that we will soon have a path that we all see as a pathway back to resuming operations. It will be slower than I would wish, but faster than many are assuming. And I think that slow, methodical, careful approach speaks well for our industry. It speaks well for the regulators around the world. And we're going to continue on that process.

我不會——我真的不會評論誰在任何特定問題上的立場。這很複雜。我認為每個人都在努力尋找正確的解決方案。我很樂觀。我樂觀地認為，我們很快就會找到一條我們都認為是恢復營運的途徑。它會比我希望的要慢，但比許多人假設的還要快。我認為這種緩慢、有條理、謹慎的方法對我們的行業來說是有利的。這對世界各地的監管機構來說都是有利的。我們將繼續這個過程。

Okay. Got you. Thanks for trying to answer that. And I apologize for asking.

好的。明白你了。感謝您嘗試回答這個問題。我很抱歉問這個問題。

Yes. No, never a problem to ask, Steven, as you well know. And if I can answer it, I will. But this is a fluid situation. That's the other thing I think we have to say. And I know I hate to sound like a broken record, but what we don't know, we don't know.

是的。不，史蒂文，這從來都不是問題，你也知道。如果我能回答，我就會回答。但這是一個不穩定的情況。這是我認為我們必須說的另一件事。我知道我討厭聽起來像一張破唱片，但我們不知道的就是我們不知道的。

Right. Exactly. So let's go to a couple of years down the road now and hopefully the world is back to normal. And I guess the question I want to ask is around supply and supply outlook for the industry.

正確的。確切地。因此，讓我們展望未來幾年，希望世界恢復正常。我想我想問的問題是關於該行業的供應和供應前景。

But we've seen certain operators remove a good bit of capacity from the market already. And you guys, and I can't imagine other operators are going to be ordering new ships for an extended period of time. So I mean, as we look a couple of years down the road, is it fair to say the cruise industry could be set up for a multiyear period of supply growth that could be, I mean, basically close to 0. Am I thinking about it the right way?

但我們已經看到某些營運商已經從市場上撤掉了大量容量。你們，我無法想像其他業者會在很長一段時間內訂購新船。所以我的意思是，當我們展望未來幾年時，可以公平地說遊輪業可以建立一個多年的供應增長期，我的意思是，基本上接近於0。我是否在考慮方法正確嗎？

Steve, it's Jason. Well, I don't know if I would say close to 0. Certainly, capacity growth as we were all collectively expecting pre-COVID is certainly going to be less, whether that's exits out of the industry where ships are being scrapped, whether it's ship sales being sold to kind of tertiary operators. And of course, I think we do expect that there'll be slower new build growth probably towards the latter part of 4 or 5 years from now.

史蒂夫，是傑森。好吧，我不知道我是否會說接近 0。當然，正如我們在新冠疫情之前共同預期的那樣，運力增長肯定會減少，無論是退出船舶報廢的行業，還是船舶銷售被出售給第三方運營商。當然，我認為我們確實預計，從現在起的四、五年後半段，新建築的成長可能會放緩。

But the ships that are in order, as we see them, though delayed by probably 8 to 10 months, I think we expect to continue to come online. And the question will be, how many ships will be retired or sold or scrapped during that period of time?

但是，正如我們所看到的，這些船舶狀態良好，儘管可能延遲了 8 到 10 個月，但我認為我們預計將繼續上線。問題是，在此期間將有多少艘船舶退役、出售或報廢？

I know for us, we've been selling about a ship or 2 a year. We have scrapped some ships. And we would -- and we're certainly very -- we're being very opportunistic about the situation when our point of view is, is that, that ship with inside of one of our brands does not fit strategically or we can't invest to have that ship fit strategically with inside the brand. And so that's something that's kind of an ongoing process for us, which has been similar in the past.

我知道對我們來說，我們每年大約銷售一兩艘船。我們已經報廢了一些船。我們會——而且我們當然非常——當我們的觀點是，我們某個品牌內部的船舶在戰略上不適合或我們不能時，我們對這種情況非常機會主義投資以使該船與品牌內部戰略契合。所以這對我們來說是一個持續的過程，過去也類似。

Okay. Got it. And Jason, one more, sorry, a real quick one. But the cruises that you're operating in Europe today, are they operating at a breakeven or even a profitable level at this point?

好的。知道了。傑森，還有一封，抱歉，很快的。但是，您今天在歐洲運營的遊輪目前是否處於盈虧平衡甚至盈利水平？

I would say that the ships that are operating in Europe today in terms of breakeven relative on a ship-specific basis are probably at or about breakeven. And I'm talking more kind of direct profit. Obviously, there are fixed costs like that those ships just probably don't cover as of yet. But the occupancy levels, the demand that we're seeing is relatively good, all things considered.

我想說，就特定船舶的相對損益平衡而言，目前在歐洲營運的船舶可能已達到或接近損益平衡。我說的是更多的直接利潤。顯然，這些船舶可能還無法承擔固定成本。但考慮到所有因素，我們看到的入住率和需求相對較好。

And I think a little bit what we've experienced to date, which is a little bit different than in the U.S. with COVID news, is sometimes when there's negative COVID news over there, because the consumer gets or the guest gets an opportunity to kind of get out of town and get some fresh air, you actually see elevation in demand. And that's one of the things, for sure, to increase as we've seen.

我認為我們迄今為止所經歷的情況與美國的新冠肺炎新聞略有不同，有時是當那裡出現新冠肺炎負面新聞時，因為消費者或客人有機會表達自己的感受。出城呼吸新鮮空氣，你實際上會看到需求的上升。正如我們所看到的，這肯定是增加的事情之一。

Your next question is from James Hardiman of Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題來自韋德布希證券公司的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

I've got three of them, but I think they're pretty quick, so I'll ask them all at once. And I think everybody generally understands that 2021 is going to be a rocky year, and it's hard to anticipate. But maybe if you could walk us through, a, to follow up on Steve's question, is there any easy way to think about your capacity in 2022, 2023 versus, say, what you had in 2019? That's number one.

我有三個，但我認為他們很快，所以我會一次問他們。我想每個人都普遍知道 2021 年會是艱難的一年，而且很難預測。但也許你可以引導我們繼續回答 Steve 的問題，是否有任何簡單的方法可以考慮你在 2022 年、2023 年的能力與 2019 年的能力相比？這是第一名。

Number two, any way to think about leverage? And I fully understand that your leverage is going to be a function of how long these layups last and you're ultimately burning cash. But is there any way to think through what leverage looks like once you emerge from this in 2022 and beyond?

第二，有什麼方法可以考慮槓桿嗎？我完全理解，你的槓桿作用將取決於這些上籃的持續時間以及你最終會燒掉的現金。但是，有沒有什麼方法可以思考 2022 年及以後擺脫困境後槓桿會是什麼樣子呢？

And I guess, just more broadly, if I look at the consensus numbers for 2022, revenues are basically almost back to 2019. Obviously, there's a bunch of incremental interest in everything else that's [hurting] earnings power. Is that realistic? Or are there some considerations that we should be thinking through once we get past the mess that will be 2021?

我想，更廣泛地說，如果我看看 2022 年的共識數字，收入基本上幾乎回到了 2019 年。顯然，人們對其他一切[損害]盈利能力的事情越來越感興趣。這現實嗎？或者說，一旦我們度過了 2021 年的混亂局面，我們是否應該考慮一些考慮因素？

Thanks, James. So I think on a capacity standpoint, there's -- obviously, there's a lot of a lot of time between now and '22 and '23. Certainly, I think our current expectations is that our fleet will be back up and running certainly by 2022 and 2023. Capacity for us is likely to be higher, because of the new ships that I talked about in my remarks coming online.

謝謝，詹姆斯。所以我認為從容量的角度來看，很明顯，從現在到 22 年和 23 年之間還有很多時間。當然，我認為我們目前的期望是，我們的船隊肯定會在 2022 年和 2023 年恢復運作。由於我在網路上發言中談到的新船，我們的運力可能會更高。

But at the same time, as I commented on Steve's question, we do continue to opportunistically look at ship sales or scrapping in very kind of remote type of situations, which could lower that capacity growth number down a little bit.

但同時，正如我對史蒂夫問題的評論一樣，我們確實繼續機會主義地看待船舶銷售或在非常偏遠的情況下報廢，這可能會稍微降低運力增長數字。

But I would expect our capacity, as we look in '22 and '23, to be higher than it was in 2019, driven by new capacity. We've already taken out some capacity, scrapping off some ships. And of course, as we know, as these new ships roll on, the higher inventory mix, more onboard revenue venues, they're much more fuel efficient, lead to really enhancing our margins.

但我預計，在新產能的推動下，22 年和 23 年我們的產能將高於 2019 年。我們已經消耗了一些產能，並報廢了一些船隻。當然，正如我們所知，隨著這些新船的投入，更高的庫存組合、更多的船上收入場所、它們的燃油效率更高，從而真正提高了我們的利潤。

Moving on to leverage, it is certainly a goal of ours to get back to our pre-COVID level metrics, especially as it looks getting to investment grade. I think how we look to do that is obviously putting more of our free cash flow towards paying down debt. We've taken some action here recently to put ourselves in a position to pay down debt. And hopefully, the sooner we get started here, the less of the cash that we're holding today we're going to need, and that could be purposed to also paying down debt. But it is definitely one of our -- management team and our Board's kind of core objective to look at how do we get to pre-COVID leverage as soon as possible.

說到槓桿率，我們的目標當然是回到新冠疫情前的水平指標，特別是當它看起來達到投資等級時。我認為我們的做法顯然是將更多的自由現金流用於償還債務。我們最近在這裡採取了一些行動，以使我們能夠償還債務。希望我們越早開始，我們今天持有的現金所需的就越少，這也可以用於償還債務。但這絕對是我們管理團隊和董事會的核心目標之一，即研究如何盡快達到新冠疫情前的槓桿率。

I won't really comment on -- it's just way too early to talk about consensus for 2022. I think important variables will be when we get the green light to get back into service and what that ramp-up looks like, what the universe looks like around therapeutics and vaccines and testing. And of course, wave is very important to 2021. The waves also begins the momentum into 2022. And so the more for us the flywheel is spinning as we go into all of that, the more momentum I think we'll build for 2022.

我不會真正發表評論——現在談論 2022 年的共識還為時過早。我認為重要的變數將是我們何時獲得恢復服務的許可以及加速是什麼樣子，宇宙是什麼樣的看起來像是治療、疫苗和測試。當然，波浪對 2021 年非常重要。波浪也開始了進入 2022 年的動力。因此，當我們進入這一切時，飛輪旋轉得越多，我認為我們為 2022 年建立的動力就越大。

So we're cautiously optimistic. I won't talk about whether we'll be at pre-COVID level by '22 or 2023, except to say that we're trying to build momentum as quickly as we can and making sure we're doing it in a very safe and healthy way.

所以我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。我不會談論我們是否會在 22 年或 2023 年達到新冠疫情前的水平，只是說我們正在努力盡快建立勢頭，並確保我們在非常安全的情況下做到這一點和健康的方式。

Your next question is from Jaime Katz of Morningstar.

您的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

Can you help us unpack what is in that negative onboard and other revenue line item? It looks a little optically funny. So I'm just curious if that's a onetime thing I should be aware of or is it something that could potentially repeat.

您能否幫助我們分析負面的船上收入和其他收入項目的內容？它看起來有點有趣。所以我只是好奇這是我應該意識到的一次性的事情還是可能會重複的事情。

Yes. Sure, Jaime. It's a very immaterial amount of money. But as we were going through in the kind of Q1 and Q2 and processing tons of refunds and cancellations and so forth, there's some cancellation or penalty income that we're reversing here in our Q3 numbers. And these are small numbers. Of course, we don't really have any onboard revenue. We don't really have any ticket revenue. So just a small -- a small correction there stands out.

是的。當然，海梅。這是一筆非常無關緊要的錢。但當我們經歷第一季和第二季並處理大量退款和取消等時，我們在第三季的數據中逆轉了一些取消或罰款收入。這些都是很小的數字。當然，我們實際上沒有任何船上收入。我們實際上沒有任何門票收入。因此，只有一個小小的修正很引人注目。

Okay. And then on the capital allocation front, you guys called out pretty long on putting out an equity issuance to raise capital. I'm curious how you're thinking about that going forward, if there is a preference or sort of a rule set you're thinking of for capital raises ahead.

好的。然後在資本配置方面，你們長時間呼籲發行股票來籌集資金。我很好奇你如何看待未來的發展，如果你正在考慮未來的融資是否有偏好或某種規則集。

Well, I think we're going to continue to be patient and methodical on how we raise capital, if and when we need it. I think we feel pretty good about our liquidity position. We took action here to put ourselves in a posture to be able to delever as we return to service. And I think that we'll continue to evaluate if we do need to raise capital, the debt markets, the convert markets or the equity markets. But our focus here is to fix the balance sheet as soon as we can, but also doing it in a very thoughtful way.

嗯，我認為，如果需要的話，我們將繼續對如何籌集資金保持耐心和有條不紊。我認為我們對我們的流動性狀況感覺很好。我們在此採取行動，使自己處於能夠在恢復服務後去槓桿化的狀態。我認為我們將繼續評估是否確實需要籌集資金、債務市場、轉換市場或股票市場。但我們的重點是盡快修復資產負債表，但也要以非常深思熟慮的方式進行。

And so I think what we'll continue to do is to evaluate those options as well as looking at within our -- in our business, how do we improve our margins to generate more cash flow, to have that to be available in order for us to pay down debt and invest in our business.

因此，我認為我們將繼續做的是評估這些選擇，並在我們的業務中考慮如何提高利潤率以產生更多現金流，以便能夠利用這些現金流來我們償還債務並投資於我們的業務。

Your next question is from Brandt Montour of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

So thinking about pent-up demand and possibly a meaningful inflection of bookings that you may be expecting when you're allowed to sail, can you just weigh which factors or events you think will be most important for how that curve looks between actual expiration of the no sail, but weigh that against the crew-specific travel warning the CDC put out last week. Obviously, the recent lift in virus data is another drag. But I guess what I'm asking is, is it possible we have to wait until you're actually able to prove you can cruise safely before we see that big inflection in bookings?

因此，考慮一下被壓抑的需求，以及當您被允許航行時您可能期望的預訂量的有意義的變化，您是否可以權衡哪些因素或事件您認為對於實際到期之間的曲線看起來最重要？停航，但要與疾病預防控制中心上週發布的針對船員的旅行警告進行權衡。顯然，最近病毒數據的上升是另一個拖累。但我想我要問的是，我們是否有可能必須等到您真正能夠證明您可以安全地航行，然後才能看到預訂量出現大幅變化？

Hi Brandt, it's Michael. Interestingly, when I think Jason commented on Quantum in Singapore, when we opened for sail after we received approval from the Singaporean government, we were really quite surprised by the level of demand that came in for the product over that winter season that we've got it open. And those cruises are basically ocean voyages that sail for 3, 4, 5 days. And within the first 2 weeks, we had literally the triple demand that we were expecting at rates above what we were expecting.

嗨布蘭特，我是麥可。有趣的是，當我認為傑森在新加坡評論量子時，當我們在獲得新加坡政府的批准後開始航行時，我們對我們在那個冬季對該產品的需求水平感到非常驚訝。打開了。而那些郵輪基本上都是航行3、4、5天的遠洋航行。在最初的兩週內，我們的需求實際上是我們預期的三倍，而且速度高於我們的預期。

So I think going back to Jason's point earlier with regards to what they're seeing in Europe with demand even when COVID increases, there is demand in the marketplace and it's coming quite naturally.

因此，我認為回到傑森之前的觀點，即他們在歐洲看到的需求，即使新冠病毒增加，市場上也有需求，而且這是很自然的。

The other comment I would make on demand that we're seeing is that in the American market, it's really correlated with how consumers feel about COVID and what they believe is occurring with COVID in terms of it moving behind us. About 3 or 4 months ago, a large group of consumers, we're tracking consumers every single month. And about 3 or 4 months ago, most people believed that COVID would be kind of moving behind us by the end of 2020. Of course, that's shifted now. And the belief from most consumers is that, as you move through '21, COVID will move behind us with vaccines, therapeutics, et cetera, et cetera.

我根據我們所看到的需求提出的另一條評論是，在美國市場，這確實與消費者對新冠病毒的感受以及他們認為新冠病毒在我們身後發生的情況有關。大約3、4個月前，有一大群消費者，我們每個月都會追蹤消費者。大約三、四個月前，大多數人認為新冠疫情將在 2020 年底前遠離我們。當然，現在情況已經改變了。大多數消費者都相信，當你進入 21 世紀時，新冠病毒將透過疫苗、治療藥物等落後於我們。

And you very much see a correlation between what people are believing and how they're booking. So I think we commented before that a lot of consumers effectively lost their summer 2020. There's a belief that COVID will be behind us at some point in '21, and we kind of see that in the booking behavior out of the American market for our products through '21, with a particular emphasis on summer '21. And I think there's a kind of -- it feels and it looks as if customers are thinking, this is going to be behind us and we're going to have a summer vacation.

您會非常清楚地看到人們的信念與他們的預訂方式之間存在相關性。因此，我認為我們之前評論過，許多消費者實際上失去了 2020 年的夏季。人們相信，新冠疫情將在 21 年的某個時候過去，我們在美國市場的預訂行為中看到了這一點。產品貫穿“21”，特別強調“21”夏季。我認為有一種——感覺上、看起來好像顧客都在想，這一切都會過去，我們將要度過一個暑假了。

I think with regards to the no sail order, I do believe that if there is a change in the no sail order and a pathway is created for a safe return to cruising, there will be an uptick in demand. But I think people will naturally wait and see. And I think also, there'll be, as I just mentioned, the correlation between what's occurring with COVID in the community and how people feel confident about taking a vacation and booking a vacation. So it's complicated. It's very much connected to consumer [optimism] and feelings about COVID.

我認為關於禁航令，我確實相信，如果禁航令發生變化，並為安全返回巡航創建一條通道，需求將會上升。但我認為人們自然會拭目以待。我還認為，正如我剛才提到的，社區中新冠疫情的情況與人們對度假和預訂假期的信心之間存在相關性。所以這很複雜。這與消費者的[樂觀情緒]和對新冠病毒的感受密切相關。

Got it. That's incredibly helpful color. And my second question is following up on the universal testing front. And I just -- we all read the 74 points, and I know that the recommendations include sort of a dual layer, right, where the customer brings their own sort of PCR-level test and then there's another perhaps rapid test at the port. Is that what you've committed to across all your brands, the sort of dual layer testing? And is that an industry-wide thing as well? We haven't heard much detail on specific how many tests, what kind of tests and things like that. Any color you could provide.

知道了。這是非常有用的顏色。我的第二個問題是關於通用測試方面的後續情況。我只是 - 我們都閱讀了 74 點，我知道這些建議包括某種雙層，對吧，客戶帶來自己的 PCR 級測試，然後在港口進行另一個可能是快速測試。這就是您在所有品牌中所承諾的雙層測試嗎？這也是整個產業的事情嗎？我們還沒有聽到關於具體有多少測試、什麼樣的測試等等的詳細資訊。您可以提供的任何顏色。

Yes. So I think your comment on that is, if accurate, referring back to the panel report. Part of the point that the panel made was how quickly this whole testing issue is changing. And I think that's one of the more exciting things that we're seeing. We've gone from a very small number of tests to now, the tests are regularly running 1 million, 1.2 million a day. And that number has the potential for trebling in a fairly short period of time.

是的。因此，我認為您對此的評論如果準確的話，請參考專家小組報告。該小組提出的部分觀點是整個測試問題的變化速度有多快。我認為這是我們看到的最令人興奮的事情之一。我們從很少的測試到現在，每天定期執行 100 萬、120 萬個測試。這個數字有可能在相當短的時間內增加兩倍。

So the panel really did conclude that as this technology improves, we ought to improve. Our mantra is continuous improvement. We think that as the new tests are coming out, these lateral flow tests are quite dramatically an improvement in speed and accuracy and in availability and in cost. So we do think that testing is going to be an important part of it.

因此，專家組確實得出結論，隨著這項技術的改進，我們應該改進。我們的口號是持續改進。我們認為，隨著新測試的出現，這些側向層析測試在速度、準確性、可用性和成本方面都得到了顯著的改進。所以我們確實認為測試將成為其中的重要組成部分。

I'm not going to get into all the different kinds of testing and which we would do where because that's not going to change tomorrow. As I say, it's interesting that even today, no other industry that I'm aware of has said they would do 100% testing. And that's what we are committed to do. And frankly, the whole industry has said that they think that's the right thing to do.

我不會討論所有不同類型的測試以及我們將在哪裡進行的測試，因為明天這不會改變。正如我所說，有趣的是，即使在今天，據我所知，還沒有其他行業表示他們會進行 100% 的測試。這就是我們致力於做的事情。坦白說，整個行業都表示他們認為這是正確的做法。

So I won't get into the specifics because I think, if I do, we'll be wrong tomorrow. But I think we will be starting with 100% testing. And over time, we hope that will get even faster, cheaper, et cetera.

所以我不會詳細說明，因為我認為，如果我這樣做，明天我們就會錯了。但我認為我們將從 100% 測試開始。隨著時間的推移，我們希望這會變得更快、更便宜等等。

Your next question is from Greg Badishkanian of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Greg Badishkanian。

It's actually Fred Wightman on for Greg. Jason, you gave some stats for the full year '21 pricing on a cumulative basis. And it sounded like that was unchanged versus what you guys had provided last quarter. I thought you were expecting that number to come down as more FCCs were redeemed. So can you just sort of talk about what, if anything different versus your expectations?

實際上是弗雷德·懷特曼（Fred Wightman）代替格雷格（Greg）。 Jason，您提供了 21 年全年定價的一些累積統計數據。聽起來這與你們上季度提供的相比沒有變化。我以為您預計隨著更多 FCC 被兌換，這個數字會下降。那麼您能否談談與您的期望有何不同（如果有）？

Right. Yes. And this will be our last question. So that's exactly right. On the pricing standpoint, the new -- as I said, as we've been taking on new bookings. We've been able to hold our rates despite the FCCs coming more and more into play. And I think it is a testament to demand. It is still very early. But at least what we're seeing for the back half, and really quite frankly from June on, is our pricing is holding up quite well.

正確的。是的。這將是我們的最後一個問題。所以這是完全正確的。從定價的角度來看，正如我所說，我們一直在接受新的預訂。儘管 FCC 的作用越來越大，但我們仍然能夠保持利率不變。我認為這是需求的證明。現在還很早。但至少我們在下半年看到的是，坦白說，從六月開始，我們的定價保持得很好。

And then if I could sneak one more quick one. And I think last quarter you talked about there was a line in the sand sort of early, middle 2Q as far as where that consumer demand really did pick up. Have you seen that time line changed in any way? Are people sort of moving their bookings either earlier or later in the year?

然後如果我能再快一點的話。我認為上個季度您談到了第二季初、中期消費者需求確實有所回升的情況。您是否看到時間軸發生了任何變化？人們是否會提前或延後今年的預訂？

It's very consistent with what Michael said. I mean you can really draw a line from when the summer begins, and you can see that -- it's not just about the new booking, it's also seeing where people are lifting and shifting their bookings is very much similar to what they were expecting to do this year as we look at the summertime and beyond. And by summer, we mean really kind of when kids get out of school.

這與麥可所說的非常一致。我的意思是，你真的可以從夏季開始的時候開始劃清界限，你可以看到——這不僅僅是新預訂的問題，還包括人們在哪些地方取消和改變了他們的預訂，這與他們的預期非常相似。今年我們會考慮夏季及以後的情況。說到夏天，我們指的是孩子離開學校的時候。

Okay. Thank you for your assistance, Shelby, with the call today. And we thank you all for your participation and ongoing interest in the company. Carola will be available for any follow-ups you might have. And from all of us, I wish you all a very great day.

好的。謝爾比，感謝您今天致電的幫助。我們感謝大家的參與以及對公司的持續關注。卡羅拉 (Carola) 將為您提供任何後續服務。我謹代表我們所有人祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。