皇家加勒比遊輪 (RCL) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Mariama, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫瑪麗亞瑪，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Cruises Limited Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加皇家加勒比遊輪有限公司 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jason Liberty.

（操作員須知） 現在我想介紹一下財務長 Jason Liberty 先生。

Mr. Liberty, the floor is yours.

自由先生，請發言。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter earnings call.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me here in Miami are Richard Fain, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Carola Mengolini, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

與我一起來到邁阿密的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官理查德·費恩 (Richard Fain)；貝利 (Michael Bayley)，皇家加勒比國際遊輪公司總裁兼執行長；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁卡羅拉‧門戈里尼 (Carola Mengolini)。

During this call, we will be referring to a few slides, which have been posted on our investor website, www.rclinvestor.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考幾張投影片，這些投影片已發佈在我們的投資者網站 www.rclinvestor.com 上。

Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements, which is on our first slide.

在我們開始之前，我想請您參閱我們關於前瞻性陳述的通知，該通知位於我們的第一張投影片上。

During this call, we will be making comments that are forward looking.

在這次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性評論。

These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述並不保證未來的業績，並且確實涉及風險和不確定性。

Examples are described in our SEC filing and other disclosures.

我們的 SEC 文件和其他披露中描述了示例。

Please note that we do not undertake to update this information in our filings as circumstances change.

請注意，我們不承諾隨著情況的變化更新我們提交的文件中的這些資訊。

Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of all non-GAAP historical items can be found on our website.

此外，我們將討論某些根據定義進行調整的非公認會計原則財務指標，所有非公認會計原則歷史項目的調節表可以在我們的網站上找到。

Unless you state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency-adjusted basis.

除非您另有說明，否則所有指標均以恆定貨幣調整為基礎。

Richard will begin by providing a strategic overview of the business.

理查德將首先提供業務的策略概述。

I will follow up with a recap of our fourth quarter and full year results for 2019.

接下來我將回顧我們 2019 年第四季和全年的業績。

I will then provide an update on the current booking environment and then provide guidance for the full year and fourth quarter of 2020.

然後我將提供當前預訂環境的最新信息，並提供 2020 年全年和第四季度的指導。

Richard?

理查德？

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝傑森，大家早安。

Obviously, the biggest issue of the day is the Wuhan coronavirus.

顯然，今天最大的問題是武漢冠狀病毒。

And as you all know, this virus has infected over 20,000 people in China, and they have taken unprecedented steps to contain it.

眾所周知，這種病毒已經在中國感染了兩萬多人，中國採取了前所未有的措施來遏制它。

They've essentially locked down the country and they're acting quickly and aggressively to combat the spread, so have other countries.

他們基本上已經封鎖了整個國家，並且正在迅速採取積極行動來遏制疫情蔓延，其他國家也是如此。

Unfortunately, no one knows how this outbreak will play out, and we don't know how it will ultimately impact us.

不幸的是，沒有人知道這次疫情將如何發展，我們也不知道它最終將如何影響我們。

So far, we've canceled some sailings, and we've modified some itineraries that extend through March 4. These actions will cost us approximately $0.25 per share.

到目前為止，我們已經取消了一些航班，並修改了一些延續至 3 月 4 日的行程。

But it seems likely that we will have to cancel more, but we don't yet know how many.

但看來我們可能不得不取消更多，但我們還不知道有多少。

We also expect that there will be an impact on future bookings in China, especially in the immediate aftermath of the illness.

我們也預計，這將對中國未來的預訂產生影響，尤其是在疫情爆發後。

But again, we just don't know.

但我們還是不知道。

One important bright spot is that looking beyond the current outbreak, we aren't seeing a big impact on overall bookings elsewhere.

一個重要的亮點是，除了當前的疫情爆發外，我們沒有看到其他地方的整體預訂受到重大影響。

But again, and here I'm sounding like a broken record, we just don't know.

但再說一次，我聽起來就像一張破唱片，我們只是不知道。

To put things in context, China was expected to account for about 6% of our full year capacity and 4% of the capacity in the first quarter.

綜合來看，中國預計將占我們全年產能的 6% 左右，佔第一季產能的 4% 左右。

Spectrum of the Seas is currently our only ship in China with 2 other ships scheduled to enter the market in May and July, respectively.

海洋光譜號是我們目前在中國唯一的一艘船舶，另外兩艘船舶計畫分別於 5 月和 7 月進入市場。

Spectrum was doing very well before this outbreak.

在這次疫情爆發之前，Spectrum 的表現非常好。

So this is all very disappointing to us.

所以這一切讓我們非常失望。

So far, we've had to cancel 8 China sailings and modified several itineraries that go through March 4. Unfortunately, there are still too many variables and uncertainties regarding the situation to calculate the overall impact on the business or give you a good estimate of what the ultimate impact will be.

到目前為止，我們已經取消了8 個中國航班，並修改了3 月4 日之前的多個行程。您一個很好的估計最終的影響會是什麼。

That said, we continue to feel positive about and committed to the long-term growth potential in China, a market that we've been in for more than 10 years.

儘管如此，我們仍然對中國的長期成長潛力持積極態度，並致力於該市場的長期成長潛力，我們已經進入這個市場十多年了。

In conjunction with CLIA, our industry trade group, we have initiated strong safeguards to help contain the spread of the disease and to protect our guests and crew.

我們與我們的工業貿易集團 CLIA 合作，啟動了強有力的保障措施，以幫助遏制疾病的傳播並保護我們的客人和船員。

These include regardless of nationality, the company will deny boarding to any individual who's traveled from, to or through Mainland China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days.

其中包括，無論國籍為何，該公司將拒絕過去 15 天內往返或途經中國大陸或香港的任何個人登機。

These guests will receive full refunds.

這些客人將獲得全額退款。

There will be mandatory specialized health screenings performed on guests who have been in contact with individuals who have traveled from, to or through Mainland China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days; all holders of China or Hong Kong passports, regardless of when they were last in China or Hong Kong; guests who report feeling unwell or demonstrate any flu-like symptoms.

對於過去 15 天內曾接觸過來自、抵達或途經中國大陸或香港的個人的客人，將進行強制性的專門健康檢查；所有持有中國或香港護照的人，無論他們最後一次來到中國或香港是什麼時候；報告感覺不適或表現出任何流感樣症狀的客人。

And these standards also apply to employees, crewmembers and contractors.

這些標準也適用於員工、機組人員和承包商。

All these steps that we are taking and others are taking are expected to ultimately contain the virus, but we don't know how long that will take.

我們和其他人正在採取的所有這些步驟預計將最終遏制病毒，但我們不知道這需要多長時間。

Now returning to 2019, I'd start out by saying that it was another incredibly busy and successful year.

現在回到 2019 年，我首先要說，這是另一個非常忙碌和成功的一年。

Our teams achieved all-time record financial results, delivering an adjusted EPS of $9.54 while introducing 3 new vessels, launching the very successful Perfect Day destination, consolidating Silversea, modernizing 6 ships and implementing a Excalibur on most of the fleet.

我們的團隊取得了歷史最高的財務業績，調整後每股收益為9.54 美元，同時引進了3 艘新船，推出了非常成功的Perfect Day 目的地，整合了Silversea，對6 艘船進行了現代化改造，並在大部分船隊中實施了Excalibur。

Our guest satisfaction scores are at an all-time high, and so are our employee engagement scores.

我們的賓客滿意度得分處於歷史最高水平，我們的員工敬業度得分也是如此。

I'm gratified to note that our teams achieved these record results while also having more than their fair share of unique incidents like the Oasis dry dock, Cuba, Hurricane Dorian, et cetera.

我很高興地註意到，我們的團隊取得了這些創紀錄的成績，同時也經歷了超過其應有的獨特事件，如綠洲乾船塢、古巴、多里安颶風等。

I believe that this is a testament to a strategy that works, a product that's great and a group of people that is the best at what they do.

我相信，這證明了一項有效的策略、一款出色的產品以及一群最擅長其工作的人。

Now this particular earnings call is special as we are once again announcing a new set of long-term goals.

現在，這次特別的財報電話會議很特別，因為我們再次宣布了一套新的長期目標。

Our management team is very goal oriented, and we have found that establishing clear, simple and ambitious targets motivates our people and drives superior results.

我們的管理團隊非常以目標為導向，我們發現建立清晰、簡單和雄心勃勃的目標可以激勵我們的員工並取得卓越的成果。

This worked successfully with projects as diverse as Double-Double, Perfect Day and Project EDGE.

這在 Double-Double、Perfect Day 和 Project EDGE 等各種專案中取得了成功。

Our people are amazing and when we get all of them pulling in the same direction, nothing stops us.

我們的員工很棒，當我們讓他們所有人都朝著同一個方向努力時，沒有什麼能阻止我們。

In this case, our idea is to focus on what we're calling the 3 Ps: People, Profit and Planet.

在這種情況下，我們的想法是專注於我們所說的 3P：人、利潤和地球。

We strongly believe that if we attend to these 3 elements, we can achieve even greater heights.

我們堅信，如果我們專注於這三個要素，我們就能達到更高的高度。

We're calling the program 20>25 by 2025.

我們將該計劃稱為「到 2025 年 20>25」。

The program consists of 5 goals.

該計劃由 5 個目標組成。

The first 2 of which are reflected in the title.

其中前 2 個已反映在標題中。

Slide 1 shows the logo we're using internally for this program.

第 1 張投影片顯示了我們在該計劃內部使用的標誌。

The first goal is to reach adjusted earnings per share of $20 per share by 2025.

第一個目標是到 2025 年調整後每股盈餘達到 20 美元。

We think that's a worthy goal on its own.

我們認為這本身就是一個有價值的目標。

But I remind all of you on this call that our real objective is not to reach these goals but to exceed them.

但我在這次電話會議上提醒大家，我們真正的目標不是實現這些目標，而是超越它們。

It's a bit like tennis where they always say you not to hit -- not to hit the ball, but to hit through the ball.

這有點像網球，他們總是說你不要擊球——不是擊球，而是擊球。

Our goal is not just to improve 2025 results, it is to use that as a stepping-stone to a new base that will take us to new and better highs.

我們的目標不僅是改善 2025 年的業績，而是以此為踏腳石，邁向新的基礎，將我們帶到新的、更好的高度。

The second goal is to reduce our carbon footprint by an additional 25%.

第二個目標是將我們的碳足跡再減少 25%。

That's on top of what we've already achieved with our WWF commitment today.

這是我們今天透過世界自然基金會的承諾所取得的成果的基礎。

Now this goal that we're announcing today is 10% greater and will be achieved 5 years earlier than the International Maritime Organization's goal.

現在我們今天宣布的這個目標比國際海事組織的目標高出10%，並將提前5年實現。

It's a big deal.

這是一件大事。

The third and fourth goals are to increase our employee engagement from the record levels we're currently enjoying.

第三個和第四個目標是從目前的創紀錄水準提高員工敬業度。

We always emphasize that our success is based on the awesome work of our employees, and we want to ensure that we are taking the steps necessary to generate their continued commitment.

我們始終強調，我們的成功是基於員工的出色工作，我們希望確保我們正在採取必要的措施來贏得他們的持續承諾。

We are also proud of the level of guest satisfaction that this commitment produces.

我們也為這項承諾所帶來的賓客滿意度感到自豪。

Our fourth goal, therefore, is to continue to raise those satisfaction metrics.

因此，我們的第四個目標是繼續提高這些滿意度指標。

Lastly, we need to accomplish all this while ensuring that we keep our focus on the returns we generate on invested capital.

最後，我們需要完成這一切，同時確保我們將重點放在投資資本產生的回報上。

This involves maintaining a high level of discipline on capital spending and on operating leverage.

這涉及對資本支出和營運槓桿保持高水準的紀律。

We believe that we will do well even without such a program.

我們相信，即使沒有這樣的計劃，我們也會做得很好。

Nevertheless, adopting the clear and simple 20>25 by '25 goals will help guide our decision-making every day.

儘管如此，採用清晰簡單的 20>25 by '25 目標將有助於指導我們每天的決策。

That will focus our attention on Peoples, Profits and Planet.

這將使我們的注意力集中在人民、利潤和地球上。

These 2025 goals really motivate and drive performance, which, in turn, not only make these goals -- makes achieving these goals more likely, it makes exceeding these goals more likely too.

這些 2025 年目標確實能夠激勵和推動績效，進而不僅使這些目標更有可能實現，而且也使超越這些目標的可能性變得更大。

We do intend to provide greater detail on the specifics of the 20>25 by 2025 program in our 10-K, which will be out in a few weeks.

我們確實打算在幾週後發布的 10-K 中提供有關 2025 年 20>25 計劃的更多細節。

Now I'd like to update you on the booking environment for the year.

現在我想向大家介紹今年預訂環境的最新情況。

Jason will give a little more, but I want to focus on it.

傑森會提供更多，但我想專注於它。

And given the uncertainties around the virus, all of my comments will exclude the impact of that.

考慮到病毒的不確定性，我的所有評論都將排除其影響。

We're always eager to start the year and see what WAVE season brings.

我們總是渴望新的一年開始，看看 WAVE 季節會帶來什麼。

It's an important part of our volume, but it also serves as a harbinger for the rest of the year.

這是我們這本書的重要組成部分，但它也是今年剩餘時間的預兆。

And I'm happy to say that this year's WAVE makes us very optimistic about 2020.

我很高興地說，今年的 WAVE 讓我們對 2020 年非常樂觀。

I'm always amazed by how accurate our revenue management teams have been in the past.

我總是對我們的收入管理團隊過去的準確程度感到驚訝。

And this year, they expect yields to increase broadly in the range of 2.25% to 4.25%.

今年，他們預計收益率將大幅上漲2.25%至4.25%。

As always, there are some areas that do better than others in some special circumstances; for example, the bushfires in Australia.

一如既往，在某些特殊情況下，有些領域會比其他領域做得更好；例如，澳洲的叢林大火。

But overall, our forecast was for a nice bump to our already excellent 2019 yields.

但總體而言，我們的預測是我們本已出色的 2019 年收益率將大幅提高。

Now it's also important to look at the cost side of the equation, and we estimate that our net cruise cost, excluding fuel, will be up 1.75% to 2.25%.

現在，考慮成本方面也很重要，我們估計我們的淨遊輪成本（不包括燃油）將上漲 1.75% 至 2.25%。

Our cost outlook reflects our culture of continuous improvement and innovation.

我們的成本前景反映了我們持續改進和創新的文化。

Nevertheless, as I've mentioned in the past, costs are not always perfectly aligned with the benefits they carry.

然而，正如我過去所提到的，成本並不總是與其所帶來的利益完全一致。

For example, we continue to invest in our people, in new technology and our sustainability efforts as well as digital.

例如，我們繼續投資於我們的員工、新技術、永續發展努力以及數位化。

In all these cases, we have spent money in the past 2 years, and we will continue to spend money in 2020.

所有這些情況，過去2年我們都花了錢，2020年我們還會繼續花錢。

Something similar can be said regarding the employment of our capital.

關於我們資本的使用也可以說類似的話。

These decisions are focused on the long term of our business, and I believe they are very much in our investors' best interest.

這些決定著眼於我們業務的長期發展，我相信它們非常符合我們投資者的最佳利益。

Lastly, I will brag a little bit about our stunning new ships in 2020.

最後，我要吹噓一下我們 2020 年令人驚嘆的新船。

Among them is the first full year of operation of Spectrum of the Seas, Celebrity Flora in the Galapagos and new Mein Schiff 2 in the German market.

其中包括海洋光譜號 (Spectrum of the Seas)、加拉巴哥群島的 Celebrity Flora 號和德國市場的新 Mein Schiff 2 號的首個全年運作。

All these ships had a phenomenal inaugural season in their respective markets, and we're very happy with their performance.

所有這些船舶在各自的市場上都度過了非凡的首航季，我們對它們的表現非常滿意。

However, during 2020, we'll deliver 4 additional new ships: Celebrity Apex for the celebrity brand, Silversea Moon and Silver Origin for Silversea Cruises and Odyssey of the Seas for Royal Caribbean International.

然而，在 2020 年，我們將額外交付 4 艘新船：名人品牌的 Celebrity Apex、銀海郵輪的 Silversea Moon 和 Silver Origin 以及皇家加勒比國際的 Odyssey of the Seas。

All these new vessels attract significant premiums and will help position 2020 for another year of strong yield growth and success.

所有這些新船都吸引了大量的溢價，並將有助於為 2020 年的產量強勁增長和成功做好準備。

With that, I will now turn the microphone back to Jason.

現在，我將把麥克風轉回給傑森。

Jason?

傑森？

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你，理查。

I will now take you through our results for the fourth quarter of 2019.

現在我將向您介紹我們 2019 年第四季的業績。

These results are summarized on Slide 3. For the quarter, we generated adjusted net income of $1.42 per share, which is slightly higher than the midpoint of our guidance.

這些結果總結在投影片 3 中。

In summary, revenue came in as planned and better-than-expected performance from our joint ventures and below-the-line activities more than offset the increased costs.

總而言之，我們的合資企業和線下活動的收入按計劃實現，且好於預期的業績足以抵消增加的成本。

On the revenue side, net yields were up 6.8% for the quarter, in line with our guidance.

在營收方面，本季淨收益率成長 6.8%，符合我們的指引。

Approximately, 300 basis points of the yield growth was driven by the benefits of Silversea, Perfect Day and Terminal A. New hardware and like-for-like yield improvement drove the other 380 basis points of yield growth for the quarter.

大約 300 個基點的收益率成長是由 Silversea、Perfect Day 和 Terminal A 的效益所推動的。

On the cost side, net cruise costs, excluding fuel per APCD, were up 15.9%, which was higher than guidance, driven mainly by marine-related costs and employee-related expenses.

在成本方面，淨遊輪成本（不包括每 APCD 的燃油）增加了 15.9%，高於指導值，這主要是由海事相關成本和員工相關費用推動的。

In addition, during this quarter, we repurchased $100 million in shares.

此外，本季我們還回購了價值 1 億美元的股票。

I will now discuss our full year results, which we have summarized on Slide 4. By all accounts, 2019 was another year of very strong performance.

我現在將討論我們在投影片 4 中總結的全年業績。

We generated over $2 billion in adjusted net income, resulting in earnings per share of $9.54, making 2019 another record year.

我們產生了超過 20 億美元的調整後淨利潤，每股收益達到 9.54 美元，使 2019 年又創歷史新高。

This record result was achieved despite the unfavorable impact from the incident in the Grand Bahama Shipyard, the abrupt cancellation of voyages to Cuba and the operational disruption generated by Hurricane Dorian.

儘管受到大巴哈馬造船廠事件、前往古巴的航行突然取消以及多里安颶風造成的運營中斷等不利影響，但仍取得了這一創紀錄的成績。

Our leading brands and world-class workforce delivered the strong financial performance while also driving record Net Promoter Scores and record employee engagement metrics.

我們的領先品牌和世界一流的員工隊伍帶來了強勁的財務業績，同時也推動了創紀錄的淨推薦值和創紀錄的員工敬業度指標。

To summarize the revenue performance for the year, yields were up 8%, crowning a decade of uninterrupted revenue growth.

總結今年的營收表現，收益率成長了 8%，實現了十年不間斷的營收成長。

This result was almost 50 basis points higher than our initial January guidance despite an 80 basis point headwind from the combination of Cuba policy change, Hurricane Dorian and the Grand Bahama incident.

儘管古巴政策變化、颶風多里安和大巴哈馬事件的綜合影響帶來了 80 個基點的阻力，但這一結果仍比我們 1 月最初的指引高出近 50 個基點。

Strong demand from our core products for our key markets and higher pricing related to our private destinations in the Bahamas drove the overall outperformance for the year.

我們的核心產品對主要市場的強勁需求以及與巴哈馬私人目的地相關的更高定價推動了今年的整體表現。

Now the main driver of the year-over-year improvement were strong like-for-like yield growth, our incredible new hardware, the launching of Perfect Day and the consolidation of Silversea.

現在，年成長的主要驅動力是強勁的同比收益率成長、我們令人難以置信的新硬體、Perfect Day 的推出以及 Silversea 的整合。

On the cost side, net cruise costs, excluding fuel, were up 11.4%.

在成本方面，不包括燃油的遊輪淨成本上漲了 11.4%。

The main driver behind the year-over-year increase were the consolidation of Silversea's operations, the new operations of Perfect Day and our terminal in Miami.

同比成長的主要推動力是銀海郵輪業務的整合、Perfect Day 的新營運以及我們在邁阿密的航站樓。

Lost APCDs due to the Grand Bahama Shipyard incident and investments in technology and digital capabilities drove the balance.

由於大巴哈馬造船廠事件而損失的 APCD 以及對技術和數位能力的投資推動了平衡。

Now I'll update you on what we are seeing in the demand environment.

現在我將向您介紹我們在需求環境中所看到的最新情況。

Over the last 3 months, bookings have been consistently outpacing same time last year, and WAVE is off to an excellent start with 2020 booking trends ahead for each of our 4 brands.

在過去 3 個月中，預訂量持續超過去年同期，WAVE 開局良好，我們 4 個品牌的 2020 年預訂趨勢均處於領先地位。

In fact, the second full week of January was a record booking week for the company.

事實上，一月份的第二個完整週是該公司創紀錄的預訂週。

Pricing has also been strong, and as a result, 2020 is booked ahead of same time last year in both APD and load factor on a like-for-like basis.

定價也很強勁，因此，2020 年的 APD 和載客率均比去年同期提前預訂。

We've been highlighting ongoing strength in demand from North America for at least 2 years, and I'm happy to say that there are no signs of a slowdown.

至少兩年來，我們一直強調北美的需求持續強勁，我很高興地說沒有任何放緩的跡象。

In fact, we are seeing better overall pricing and demand from North America than ever before, with Perfect Day and our ship modernization program providing a clear boost.

事實上，我們看到北美的整體定價和需求比以往任何時候都好，完美日和我們的船舶現代化計劃提供了明顯的推動。

We are sensitive to the fact that this is an election year in the U.S. Consequently, we have modified our booking curves to reflect the short-lived slowdown that we typically see during the second or third week surrounding the election.

我們對今年是美國選舉年這一事實很敏感。

Now I'll give you a brief overview of our capacity and deployment changes for 2020.

現在我將向您簡要概述 2020 年我們的容量和部署變更。

Our overall capacity will increase 4.8% year-over-year.

我們的整體產能將年增4.8%。

Itineraries in North America account for close to 60% of our capacity and are trending very well.

北美航線占我們運力的近 60%，趨勢良好。

We've slightly increased our capacity in the Caribbean, driven by inaugural winter season for Celebrity Apex and Odyssey of the Seas, and therefore, the product will represent just over half of our overall deployment.

在 Celebrity Apex 和 Odyssey of the Seas 首個冬季的推動下，我們在加勒比地區的運力略有增加，因此，該產品將占我們總體部署的一半以上。

Other key itinerary changes include a year-round short Caribbean program on Independence of the Seas visiting Perfect Day and a summer program for the modernized Oasis of the Seas in the Northeast.

其他重要的行程變化包括海洋獨立號訪問“完美日”的全年短期加勒比計劃以及東北部現代化海洋綠洲號的夏季計劃。

Bookings for the Caribbean have been nicely higher than last year, and all signs point to this year being our best Caribbean season yet.

加勒比地區的預訂量遠高於去年，所有跡像都表明今年是我們迄今為止最好的加勒比海季節。

Alaska sailings account for about 5% of our capacity and are booked nicely ahead of same time last year.

阿拉斯加航線約占我們運力的 5%，比去年同期提前預訂很多。

We've said we increased our 2020 capacity with an incremental ship for Royal Caribbean, more than offsetting the redeployment of an Azamara ship.

我們說過，我們透過為皇家加勒比增加一艘船舶來增加 2020 年的運力，這足以抵消重新部署 Azamara 船的影響。

As it pertains to Bermuda, this product only accounts for a small portion of our overall capacity and is also booked well ahead of same time last year.

由於涉及百慕達，該產品僅占我們整體運力的一小部分，而且預訂量也遠遠提前於去年同期。

Now the robust booking environment trends from North American guests are also benefiting itineraries in Europe.

現在，北美客人強勁的預訂環境趨勢也有利於歐洲的行程。

We also expect trends in the U.K. to be more predictable this year, given the recent Brexit withdrawal agreement.

鑑於最近的脫歐協議，我們也預期今年英國的趨勢將更加可預測。

That being said, we have made some changes to our European itineraries to reduce dependence on European markets and provide even more global appeal.

話雖如此，我們對歐洲行程進行了一些改變，以減少對歐洲市場的依賴並提供更大的全球吸引力。

Overall, European sailings will account for 17% of our capacity this year, with dry dock timing and inaugural seasons for Celebrity Apex and Silver Moon driving capacity up year-over-year.

總體而言，今年歐洲航線將占我們運力的 17%，幹船塢時間表以及 Celebrity Apex 和 Silver Moon 的首航季推動運力年增。

Bookings were similar to same time last year over the past 3 months and have been up nicely during WAVE.

過去 3 個月的預訂量與去年同期相似，在 WAVE 期間成長良好。

Now moving to Asia Pacific.

現在轉移到亞太地區。

These itineraries account for 17% of our full year capacity and account for 21% in the first quarter.

這些行程占我們全年運能的 17%，第一季佔 21%。

China, in particular, represents 6% of our capacity for the full year and 4% in the first quarter with 1 ship, Spectrum of the Seas that homeports in Shanghai.

尤其是中國，以上海光譜號為母港的一艘船，占我們全年運力的 6%，第一季的 4%。

China sailings were trending particularly well prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus with APDs up nicely year-over-year and load factors in line with our expectations.

在冠狀病毒爆發之前，中國航行的趨勢特別好，APD年比大幅成長，載客率符合我們的預期。

As I've noted, it's clear that the virus will impact revenue in China, at least in the short term.

正如我所指出的，很明顯，該病毒將影響中國的收入，至少在短期內是如此。

But nevertheless, our plan to continue to growing in this profitable market remains unchanged.

但儘管如此，我們在這個有利可圖的市場中繼續成長的計劃仍然沒有改變。

Australia sailings account for 7% of our capacity and are booked slightly behind for the year.

澳洲航線占我們運力的 7%，今年的預訂量略為落後。

However, recent trends in Q1 and Q2 have been better with particular strong close-in demand from the Australian market during WAVE.

然而，最近第一季和第二季的趨勢較好，特別是在 WAVE 期間澳洲市場的近期需求特別強勁。

Taking all this into account, if you turn to Slide 5, you will see our guidance for 2020.

考慮到所有這些，如果您翻到幻燈片 5，您將看到我們對 2020 年的指導。

As a reminder, and as Richard mentioned, there remains too many variables and uncertainties to reasonably estimate the overall financial impact relating to the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

提醒一下，正如理查德所提到的，仍然存在太多變數和不確定性，無法合理估計與武漢冠狀病毒爆發相關的整體財務影響。

As such, our guidance and key metrics for the full year and the first quarter do not include any financial impact that relates to this very fluid situation.

因此，我們全年和第一季的指導和關鍵指標不包括與這種非常不穩定的情況相關的任何財務影響。

Our yield outlook for 2020 is very strong.

我們對 2020 年的收益率前景非常樂觀。

We expect net revenue yield growth of 2.25% to 4.25% for the full year, which makes 2020 our 11th consecutive year of yield growth.

我們預計全年淨收入收益率將增長 2.25% 至 4.25%，這使得 2020 年收益率連續 11 年增長。

The underlying yield improvement is driven by new hardware, strong demand for our core products and continued growth from our onboard revenue areas.

潛在的產量改善是由新硬體、對我們核心產品的強勁需求以及我們的船上收入領域的持續成長所推動的。

As I previously mentioned, we are very excited about the introduction of our 4 new ships during 2020 as they will be important contributors to the overall net yield growth.

正如我之前提到的，我們對 2020 年推出 4 艘新船感到非常興奮，因為它們將為整體淨產量成長做出重要貢獻。

Now the timing of the new ship deliveries will result in more significant yield growth in the second half of the year than in the first half.

現在，新船交付的時機將導致下半年的產量成長比上半年更顯著。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up 1.75% to 2.25% for the full year.

全年淨郵輪成本（不包括燃油）預計將上漲 1.75% 至 2.25%。

Cost control continues to be a focus.

成本控制仍然是重點。

However, this metric will have an uneven cadence throughout the year, mainly driven by the dry dock schedule, the new ship deliveries and year-over-year comparables.

然而，這項指標在全年的節奏將不均勻，主要受到乾船塢時間表、新船交付量和同比可比性的影響。

This will result in a more significant cost increase in the first half of the year than in the second half.

這將導致上半年成本增幅較下半年更為顯著。

Our depreciation for the year will be in the range of $1.376 billion and $1.392 billion.

我們今年的折舊額將在 13.76 億美元至 13.92 億美元之間。

As a result, our investment in technology and digital projects are becoming a larger mix of our capital program and generally have a shorter useful life than our typical capital investments.

因此，我們對技術和數位項目的投資正在成為我們資本計劃的更大組合，並且通常比我們典型的資本投資的使用壽命更短。

Also, this year, we'll deliver 2 new Silversea ships.

此外，今年我們將交付 2 艘新銀海郵輪。

As I mentioned in the past, being in the luxury expedition segment, Silversea's depreciation per berth is significantly higher than our corporate average.

正如我過去提到的，在豪華探險領域，銀海郵輪的每個泊位折舊率都明顯高於我們公司的平均值。

We have included $744 million of fuel expense for the year, and we are 54% hedged.

我們已計入了今年 7.44 億美元的燃料費用，並且我們進行了 54% 的對沖。

Based on current fuel pricing, currency exchange and interest rates and excluding the impact from the coronavirus, we expect another record-breaking year with earnings per share between $10.40 and $10.70.

根據目前的燃料定價、貨幣匯率和利率，並排除冠狀病毒的影響，我們預計每股盈餘將再次破紀錄，介於 10.40 美元至 10.70 美元之間。

Now I'd like to walk you through our first quarter guidance on Slide 6. Net revenue yields are expected to be down approximately 0.5%.

現在我想向您介紹投影片 6 上的第一季指引。

Demand for the core products is very strong, and our core Caribbean yields are up nicely for the quarter despite a difficult comparable.

核心產品的需求非常強勁，儘管難以進行比較，但我們的核心加勒比海產量本季仍大幅上漲。

Now while WAVE bookings trends have been strong for itineraries based in North America and Europe, recent events around the globe have impacted demand for some of our international itineraries.

現在，雖然以北美和歐洲為基地的行程的 WAVE 預訂趨勢強勁，但最近全球各地發生的事件影響了我們一些國際行程的需求。

Specifically, the unprecedented bushfires in Australia and recent activities in Hong Kong and the Middle East are each having an outsized impact on revenue for the first quarter.

具體來說，澳洲前所未有的叢林大火以及香港和中東最近的活動都對第一季的收入產生了巨大影響。

Moreover, it is important to highlight that first quarter is also being negatively impacted by other structural elements such as the discontinuation of Cuba sailings, which equals a headwind of approximately 120 basis points; the lack of new ship deliveries and a tough year-over-year comparable as we are lapping the inaugural season of 2 new ships during the first quarter of 2019.

此外，需要強調的是，第一季也受到其他結構性因素的負面影響，例如古巴航線的中斷，相當於約120個基點的逆風；由於我們即將在 2019 年第一季迎來 2 艘新船的首航季，因此缺乏新船交付，且同比情況比較艱難。

Notably, both Symphony of the Seas and Celebrity Edge had very successful inaugural seasons in the Caribbean last year.

值得注意的是，海洋交響號和名人邊緣號去年在加勒比海的首航季都非常成功。

Additionally, FX and fuel are negatively impacting the quarter year-over-year by approximately $0.15.

此外，外匯和燃料對本季的年比影響約為 0.15 美元。

All these issues make for a tough first quarter in terms of revenue growth.

所有這些問題都導致第一季的營收成長艱難。

Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up approximately 3% for the quarter.

不包括燃油在內的郵輪淨成本預計本季將成長約 3%。

Taking all this into account, and excluding any impacts from coronavirus, we expect adjusted earnings to be in the range of $0.80 to $0.85 per share.

考慮到所有這些，並排除冠狀病毒的任何影響，我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 0.80 美元至 0.85 美元之間。

Before we open up the session for the Q&A, I will highlight that we are very excited about the introduction of our 20>25 By 2025 goals that will further support our focus on our people, driving profit and taking care of our planet.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我要強調的是，我們對 2025 年 20>25 目標的推出感到非常興奮，這將進一步支持我們對員工的關注，推動利潤和保護我們的地球。

We have stressed before that our strong financial performance is driven by modestly growing our yields, effectively managing our costs and moderately growing our business.

我們之前曾強調過，我們強勁的財務表現是由收益率的適度成長、成本的有效管理和業務的適度成長所推動的。

With that formula in mind, we have now set a goal of $20 in earnings per share by 2025, which equates to a compound annual growth rate of almost 14% while delivering strong returns on invested capital.

考慮到這個公式，我們現在設定了到 2025 年每股收益 20 美元的目標，這相當於近 14% 的複合年增長率，同時帶來強勁的投資資本回報。

This is a meaningful growth trajectory, but we believe that we have the right formula and the right people to get this done.

這是一條有意義的成長軌跡，但我們相信我們擁有正確的模式和合適的人員來完成這項任務。

At the same time, we are pairing these ambitious financial goals with environmental targets, specifically with reducing our carbon emission by 25%.

同時，我們將這些雄心勃勃的財務目標與環境目標結合起來，特別是減少 25% 的碳排放。

This does not happen overnight.

這不會在一夜之間發生。

We have been working on this for some time already with our world-class design, engineering and operation teams, developing new and different products and processes to meaningfully and positively affect our environmental impact.

一段時間以來，我們一直在與世界一流的設計、工程和營運團隊合作，開發新的、不同的產品和工藝，以對我們的環境影響產生有意義和積極的影響。

With that, I will ask our operator to open up the call for a question-and-answer session.

這樣，我將要求我們的接線生打開電話進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So I know you're going to get a bunch of questions about China and I know this virus noise is a total unknown.

所以我知道你們會收到很多關於中國的問題，而且我知道這種病毒噪音是完全未知的。

But have you guys thought about any contingency plans in case this virus impact lasts longer than expected?

但你們有沒有想過，如果這種病毒影響持續時間比預期長，有什麼應急計畫嗎？

And I guess, what I mean by that is what options do you have for those ships that are in affected markets?

我想，我的意思是，對於受影響市場中的那些船舶，您有哪些選擇？

Can you move those?

你能移動那些嗎？

Would you try to move those?

你會嘗試移動那些嗎？

Or could you actually take them out of service for a period of time?

或者你真的可以讓它們停止服務一段時間嗎？

Steve, it's Michael.

史蒂夫，這是麥可。

Yes, I mean, obviously, we have contingency plans for all of our ships deployed globally and it's part of our overall planning process.

是的，我的意思是，顯然，我們為全球部署的所有船舶制定了應急計劃，這是我們總體規劃流程的一部分。

So in the case of -- at the moment, it's really Spectrum that's being removed from the China market and that's safely sailing with our crew.

因此，就目前而言，Spectrum 確實正在從中國市場中撤出，但它正在與我們的船員一起安全航行。

We have plans, obviously.

顯然我們有計劃。

But I think, as we've all said, it's really difficult to understand what is going to happen.

但我認為，正如我們都說過的，很難理解會發生什麼。

I think we're all waiting to see.

我想我們都在等著看。

But we do have alternative plans in place, and we can either redeploy regionally or outside of the region, but we do have plans in place.

但我們確實有替代計劃，我們可以在區域內或區域外重新部署，但我們確實有計劃。

Okay, got you.

好的，明白了。

And then, Richard or Jason, you gave a lot of good details about your new 2025 program.

然後，理查德或傑森，你們提供了很多有關 2025 年新計劃的詳細資訊。

But can you help us think a little bit about -- think about what some of your underlying assumptions are that go into that?

但你能否幫助我們思考一下──思考你對此的一些基本假設是什麼？

Now I guess, what I mean is you're basically assuming around kind of 14%-ish earnings growth per year, which is obviously very, very strong.

現在我想，我的意思是，你基本上假設每年的獲利成長率約為 14% 左右，這顯然非常非常強勁。

Are your yield assumptions for the next couple of years kind of still inside that normal, what you guys would call a normal 2% to 4% yield range?

你們對未來幾年的收益率假設是否仍在正常範圍內，也就是你們所謂的正常 2% 至 4% 收益率範圍內？

Steve, we set up these programs really to motivate our management, and I emphasize that these aren't -- we're not making predictions here.

史蒂夫，我們設立這些計劃實際上是為了激勵我們的管理層，我強調這些不是——我們不會在這裡做出預測。

We're setting goals.

我們正在設定目標。

And our focus is to try and not only get people to focus on doing their job more effectively, but also to use innovation to find new and different ways to do it.

我們的重點是不僅要努力讓人們專注於更有效地完成工作，還要利用創新來尋找新的、不同的方法來完成工作。

So I don't think the -- I'm in a position to say, well, we're going to do this by yields and this by cost and this by new investments, et cetera.

所以我不認為——我可以說，好吧，我們將透過收益率、成本和新投資等來做到這一點。

We're looking at the whole panoply.

我們正在審視整個整體。

And again, I would also emphasize, we're looking at 5 goals, and we think these are all very much interrelated.

我還要再次強調，我們正在考慮 5 個目標，我們認為這些目標都是相互關聯的。

We're not going to get the earnings we want if we don't get good returns on our invested capital.

如果我們的投資資本得不到良好的回報，我們就無法獲得我們想要的收益。

We're not going to get good growth in our yields if our guests aren't happy and our crewmembers aren't engaged and our people aren't focused.

如果我們的客人不高興，我們的機組人員不積極，我們的員工不專注，我們的產量就不會獲得良好的成長。

So all these things work together, and we think, together, that's the way to achieve our best outcome.

因此，所有這些因素共同作用，我們認為，這就是實現最佳結果的方法。

But we haven't broken it out in terms of this much from yield and this much from something else.

但我們還沒有從收益率和其他方面來區分這一點。

Okay, got you.

好的，明白了。

And then, Jason, 1 quick housekeeping question, if I could.

然後，傑森，如果可以的話，我想問一個簡單的內務問題。

Your capacity growth for the first quarter is 4.5%.

第一季的產能成長為 4.5%。

Any idea what that would look like once you remove the 8 sailings that have been canceled right now?

你知道如果去掉目前已取消的 8 趟航班會是什麼樣子嗎？

Is that material to that number?

這個數字重要嗎？

It will certainly decrease.

肯定會減少。

I think it will decrease it by about 100 basis points for those 8 canceled sailings based off of what goes through the March 4 date.

我認為，根據 3 月 4 日的日期，這 8 趟取消的航班將減少約 100 個基點。

Your next question comes from Harry Curtis with Institute (sic) [Instinet].

您的下一個問題來自 Institute (sic) [Instinet] 的 Harry Curtis。

My first question has to do with the first quarter.

我的第一個問題與第一季有關。

You had given us a great deal of detail, but there seems to be a fair difference in the equity pickup line item in 2020 versus last year.

您向我們提供了大量詳細信息，但 2020 年的股權拾取行項目與去年相比似乎存在相當大的差異。

Can you speak to what the extent of that is and to what degree the Grand Bahama JV contributed last year?

您能否談談大巴哈馬合資企業去年的貢獻程度以及貢獻程度？

And your expectations that have been built in for 2020?

您對 2020 年的期望是什麼？

Harry, actually, you really hit on the main driver below the line is the Grand Bahama shipyard and the loss of the dock for that yard.

哈利，實際上，你真正想到的主要驅動因素是大巴哈馬造船廠和該造船廠失去的碼頭。

And so we do not expect that dock to be back online in 2020, likely in 2021.

因此，我們預計碼頭不會在 2020 年（可能是 2021 年）重新上線。

So the income that we were receiving, which, of course, since it's a joint venture and is an equity pickup, that's where we had expected it to be and that's what's affecting us.

因此，我們收到的收入，當然，因為它是一家合資企業，並且是股權收購，這就是我們所期望的，這就是影響我們的因素。

Okay.

好的。

And the second question, going -- looking out to 2025.

第二個問題是展望 2025 年。

How much cash do you think you should be able to generate after all CapEx over the next 5 years?

您認為在未來 5 年內完成所有資本支出後，您應該能夠產生多少現金？

And are you in this goal, not necessarily guidance, are you assuming any share repurchase in this?

您是否處於這個目標中，不一定是指導，您是否假設有任何股票回購？

Yes.

是的。

So we're not going to get into the ebbs and flows of what's there.

所以我們不會陷入其中的潮起潮落。

I mean, I think, our formula for success, which is moderate yield growth, good cost control while investing in our business and growing our business.

我認為，我們的成功秘訣是適度的產量成長、良好的成本控制，同時投資我們的業務並發展我們的業務。

And, I think, at least for the next 3 or 4 years there's a very good understanding on how our capacity is going to grow is part of that.

而且，我認為，至少在接下來的三、四年內，我們對我們的能力將如何成長有一個很好的理解，這是其中的一部分。

I think when you look at -- if you run that 14% CAGR and you keep in mind that our goal is to maintain our leverage between 3x and 3.5x, that, that will leave you with a substantial amount of cash that will be available to shareholders.

我認為，如果你的複合年增長率為 14%，並且你記住我們的目標是將槓桿率維持在 3 倍到 3.5 倍之間，那麼，這將為你留下大量可用現金給股東。

Okay.

好的。

But you should -- just directionally, you should be also generating some operating cash -- reasonable amount of operating cash net of CapEx?

但你應該——只是定向地，你還應該產生一些營運現金——扣除資本支出後的合理數量的營運現金？

With that growth rate, yes.

以這樣的成長率，是的。

Your next question comes from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So in the prepared remarks, you noted that you're not really seeing a big impact on the non-China bookings since the virus.

因此，在準備好的演講中，您指出，自病毒爆發以來，您並沒有真正看到對非中國預訂的重大影響。

Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on that in terms of what you've seen with bookings or cancellations in the last week?

您能否根據上週的預訂或取消情況詳細說明一下？

And then can you also just update us on what percentage of your deposits today are nonrefundable versus what that was maybe 5 years ago and how that could be helping in this environment?

然後，您能否向我們介紹一下，與 5 年前相比，您今天的存款中不可退還的比例是多少，以及這對當前環境有何幫助？

Jared, this is Michael.

賈里德，這是麥可。

Yes, I think we're kind of pleased with what we're seeing in all of our markets around the world with, of course, the exception of what's occurring in China.

是的，我認為我們對在全球所有市場所看到的情況感到滿意，當然，中國的情況除外。

When you look at the call center inbound activity as it relates to questions, concerns that both our trade partners and our customers are asking us, any issue related to the virus is relatively small.

當您查看與我們的交易夥伴和客戶向我們詢問的問題和擔憂相關的呼叫中心呼入活動時，與病毒相關的任何問題都相對較小。

There are inquiries asking what our policies and practices are, et cetera.

有人詢問我們的政策和做法等等。

But it's really a tiny percentage.

但這確實是一個很小的百分比。

It's under 1.5% of the calls coming in.

未到來電的 1.5%。

And we feel good about the booking activity for Caribbean, Alaska and Europe and generally international.

我們對加勒比海、阿拉斯加和歐洲以及國際航班的預訂活動感到滿意。

With regards to the second question on the nonrefundables, we didn't have them in place 5 years ago.

關於第二個問題，關於不可退款的問題，我們5年前還沒有做到這一點。

I think, if I recall, we introduced them about 3 -- 2, 3 years ago.

我想，如果我沒記錯的話，我們大約在三、二、三年前引進了它們。

I'm very pleased with the results that we have.

我對我們所取得的結果感到非常滿意。

I don't think we've ever given an actual percentage number of nonrefundables, but they're very attractive to the customers.

我認為我們從未給出過不可退款的實際百分比數量，但它們對客戶非常有吸引力。

And of course, they're very sticky bookings.

當然，它們的預訂量非常大。

So we're pleased.

所以我們很高興。

Year-over-year, we've seen improvement in the number of customers who choose that option.

與去年同期相比，我們看到選擇該選項的客戶數量增加。

Yes.

是的。

Just to add on to it, I think last week, just remember that it was a Chinese New Year.

補充一點，我想上週，請記住那是中國新年。

So our expectations on booking activity was actually pretty low.

所以我們對預訂活動的期望實際上很低。

Our commentary -- or my commentary around the booking environment is really what we're seeing to date.

我們的評論——或者說我對預訂環境的評論確實是我們迄今為止所看到的。

So when we think about being in a strong rate position, load factor position, our commentary is strength around North America's -- demand for North American products and European products, on the positive commentary about Europe is all kind of incorporating what we've been seeing.

因此，當我們考慮處於強勢的費率地位、載客率地位時，我們的評論是圍繞北美的優勢——對北美產品和歐洲產品的需求，對歐洲的積極評論都融入了我們一直以來的觀點看到。

If you actually look at our 2020 bookings since our last call, our booking activity is up 6% versus the percent at that point in time.

如果您實際查看自上次通話以來我們 2020 年的預訂情況，您會發現我們的預訂活動比當時的百分比增加了 6%。

So if you take out the coronavirus just here for a moment, what you're seeing is really kind of continued strength in demand for our brands and for our products.

因此，如果您暫時排除冠狀病毒，您會看到對我們品牌和產品的需求確實持續強勁。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just as a follow-up.

然後作為後續行動。

Last year, you were talking about double-digit premiums for itineraries that had CocoCay.

去年，您談到了可可島航線的兩位數保費。

Are you still seeing that right now?

你現在還看到這個嗎？

Or is there some degree of -- when you bring a new ship on, there's inaugural pricing and then you start lapping that?

或者是否存在某種程度的——當你引進一艘新船時，會有首航定價，然後你開始關注它？

Are you still getting those same type of premiums today?

今天您還在獲得同類型的保費嗎？

And then in your yield guide of 2.25% to 4.25%, how much of that is because of CocoCay, both the ticket and the nonticket assumptions?

然後，在 2.25% 至 4.25% 的收益率指導中，有多少是由於 CocoCay（包括門票和非門票假設）造成的？

Jared, it's Michael.

賈里德，是麥可。

I'll let Jason respond to the question on the yield guide, but with regards to Perfect Day and the demand that we're seeing coming through, we're very pleased with both demand and rate.

我會讓 Jason 回答有關收益指南的問題，但就 Perfect Day 和我們看到的需求而言，我們對需求和利率都非常滿意。

And I think the volume that we're expecting out of Perfect Day this year is close to 2.4 million guests.

我認為今年 Perfect Day 的預計接待人數接近 240 萬人次。

We've deployed more ships into Perfect Day.

我們在「完美的一天」中部署了更多的船隻。

And we've been really pleased with both the demand and the pricing for the product.

我們對產品的需求和定價都非常滿意。

Taking the midpoint of our guide, about 100 basis points is going to be driven by the new hardware that's coming on and the balance of that, which also includes Perfect Day, is coming from like-for-like improvement.

以我們指南的中點為例，大約 100 個基點將由即將推出的新硬體驅動，而其中包括 Perfect Day 的平衡則來自同類改進。

So we're -- as we said, we're very, very kind of encouraging -- and we're not going to break out the 5 months of Perfect Day in terms of our yield guidance.

因此，正如我們所說，我們非常非常令人鼓舞，而且我們不會在收益率指導方面突破 Perfect Day 的 5 個月。

Just to add to that, on Friday, we opened up the Coco Beach Club in Perfect Day, and that is another new element of the experience and the overwater cabanas is selling for $1,500 a day and they're pretty much booked at.

除此之外，週五，我們在 Perfect Day 中開設了 Coco Beach Club，這是體驗的另一個新元素，水上小屋的售價為每天 1,500 美元，而且幾乎都被預訂了。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

Jason, I was just wondering if you could dissect for us the $0.25 impact or the anticipated, I should say, $0.25 EPS impact from the canceled 8 cruises?

Jason，我只是想知道您能否為我們剖析一下取消 8 趟郵輪對每股收益 0.25 美元的影響，或者我應該說，預計每股收益 0.25 美元的影響？

Just wanted to clarify or ask if that's mostly cost?

只是想澄清或詢問這是否主要是成本？

I know that when you cancel cruises, there's usually not -- there's usually not a corresponding yield impact since you're removing the APCDs, but in this case, especially the Chinese New Year cruises were some of those yield -- I'm wondering if some of those yielded higher than your corporate average, and if so, if there was any yield impact or if you're anticipating any yield impact from the cancellations?

我知道當你取消遊輪時，通常不會——通常不會有相應的收益影響，因為你要取消 APCD，但在這種情況下，特別是農曆新年遊輪是其中的一些收益——我想知道其中一些的收益率是否高於您公司的平均水平，如果是，是否會對收益率產生任何影響，或者您預計取消會對收益率產生任何影響？

Yes.

是的。

So on that $0.25, the vast majority of it -- so maybe a couple of pennies of it is cost related.

因此，對於 0.25 美元來說，其中的絕大多數——所以也許其中幾分錢與成本相關。

The balance of it really is going to be top line driven.

它的平衡確實將由營收驅動。

As you pointed out, Felicia, yes, we did lose 2 sailings that were during that very high-yielding New Year's week.

正如您所指出的，費利西亞，是的，我們確實在新年那一周損失了兩次航行。

So we do expect it to play a little bit on the yield, especially in the first quarter and less so on the balance of the year as those APCDs get taken out.

因此，我們確實預期它會對收益率產生一點影響，尤其是在第一季度，而隨著這些 APCD 被剔除，對今年剩餘時間的影響會較小。

And obviously, in the absolute revenue side, the vast majority of that $0.25 will come out of our top line.

顯然，在絕對收入方面，這 0.25 美元的絕大多數將來自我們的營收。

Right.

正確的。

But so for -- is there any way to kind of help us understand in your guidance, how you -- or, I guess, it's not in your guidance, but how to maybe think about the higher-yielding -- the loss of the higher-yielding cruises, because like if they were lower-yielding than your corporate average, they would not have an impact on the yield, right?

但是，有什麼方法可以幫助我們在您的指導中理解，或者，我猜，這不在您的指導中，而是如何考慮更高的收益——損失收益較高的遊輪，因為如果它們的收益低於公司的平均水平，它們不會對收益產生影響，對吧？

Right.

正確的。

But in the first quarter, they are slightly higher than our quarter average.

但在第一季度，它們略高於我們的季度平均值。

But as it is for the full year, it's pretty close to the overall average.

但就全年而言，它非常接近整體平均水平。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So -- but there's no way to help us figure out if we wanted to layer it in our estimates what's it...

所以 - 但沒有辦法幫助我們弄清楚我們是否想將其分層到我們的估計中它是什麼...

No, we're not going to be guiding for the first quarter or the full year as it relates to this.

不，我們不會為與此相關的第一季或全年提供指導。

All right.

好的。

And then just regarding your commentary on Australia, just wondering if you could help us understand what your deployment to Australia is specifically on a quarterly basis and for the full year?

然後，關於您對澳洲的評論，只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您在澳洲的季度和全年部署具體是什麼？

And maybe help us know what are you doing to mitigate the lower demand you're seeing for the region or any alterations you're making to accommodate for the situation there?

也許可以幫助我們了解您正在採取哪些措施來緩解該地區的需求下降，或者您正在採取哪些改變來適應那裡的情況？

And then also, just hoping you can reconcile the comment that close-in bookings were strong for Australia with the impact you're seeing in Australia?

然後，只是希望您能將澳洲近距離預訂量強勁的評論與您在澳洲看到的影響進行調和？

Sure.

當然。

So Australia for the year, Q1 and Q4 are the heavy periods.

所以澳洲今年第一季和第四季是高峰期。

There's a little bit that happens in Q2.

第二季度發生了一些事情。

So in the first quarter, Australia is about 12% of our capacity.

所以第一季度，澳洲約占我們產能的12%。

In the fourth quarter, it's about 11% of our capacity.

第四季度，約占我們產能的 11%。

In the second quarter, it's about 4% of our capacity.

第二季度，約佔我們產能的 4%。

So really, the commentary was, during those bushfires, what we saw was, obviously, the consumer -- the local consumer was very focused on what was happening there in their country.

所以實際上，評論是，在那些叢林大火期間，我們看到的顯然是消費者——當地消費者非常關注他們國家正在發生的事情。

So we saw a little bit of pullback in terms of activity for close-in.

因此，我們看到近距離活動略有回落。

What we did see as things kind of settled down there is an acceleration of demand and so we were able to fill the ships.

我們確實看到，隨著事情的穩定，需求會加速，因此我們能夠填滿船隻。

We were able to fill the ships but at a slightly lower pricing just due to the timing of all of it.

我們能夠裝滿船隻，但由於時間安排，價格略低。

Are you seeing more normalized behavior now?

現在您看到更多正常化的行為？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

您的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

You guys had made some commentary that you were reducing dependence on European markets.

你們發表了一些評論，說你們正在減少對歐洲市場的依賴。

I think that's not surprising given some of the commentary we've heard in recent quarters.

考慮到我們最近幾個季度聽到的一些評論，我認為這並不奇怪。

But do you have any additional insight on the implied weakness that, that would, for us, maybe what you're seeing on a more country or regional specific basis?

但是，您對隱含的弱點有任何其他見解嗎？

I'll just make a few comments and Michael can jump in.

我只想發表一些評論，邁克爾可以插話。

It's not a question of us shifting our sourcing based off of what we're seeing today.

這不是我們根據今天所看到的情況改變採購的問題。

Based off of what we were seeing in last year, our brands made changes to their deployment that really may be the global appeal greater, meaning that you can source from more markets versus maybe having a ship that was significantly dependent on the U.K. market, as an example.

根據我們去年所看到的情況，我們的品牌對其部署進行了更改，這確實可能會更俱全球吸引力，這意味著您可以從更多市場採購，而不是擁有一艘嚴重依賴英國市場的船舶，因為一個例子。

So our sourcing is a little bit different for Europe this year, but a lot of that's just driven by us globalizing the sourcing markets for our brands and our products that are based in Europe.

因此，今年我們在歐洲的採購有點不同，但這很大程度上是由我們將歐洲品牌和產品的採購市場全球化所推動的。

Okay.

好的。

And then can I just get a clarification on Alaska.

然後我可以得到關於阿拉斯加的澄清嗎？

I think you had said that it was ahead in bookings, but I don't know that there was a commentary on pricing and I know for Carnival that was sort of a dodgy area last year.

我想你說過它的預訂量領先，但我不知道有關於定價的評論，而且我知道去年嘉年華的情況有點危險。

So if you have any insight on the pricing in the region, that would be helpful.

因此，如果您對該地區的定價有任何了解，那將會很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

I would just comment, in general.

我只是一般性地發表評論。

If you take out Azamara, because Azamara won't be in Alaska this year, it's one of our higher-yielding brands, we expect yield improvement in that product this year.

如果你去掉 Azamara，因為 Azamara 今年不會進入阿拉斯加，它是我們產量較高的品牌之一，我們預計今年產品的產量將會增加。

Your next question comes from James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題來自韋德布希證券公司的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So obviously, pretty encouraging to hear that the coronavirus issue hasn't impacted any of -- or it doesn't seem to have impacted the western bookings.

顯然，聽到冠狀病毒問題沒有影響任何西方預訂，或者似乎沒有影響西方預訂，真是令人鼓舞。

So I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the Fly Cruise market coming out of China.

所以我希望你能談談中國的飛遊市場。

How big is that?

那有多大？

And is there any impact in that $0.25 number from the potential passengers flying out of China getting on ships elsewhere?

從中國飛出並在其他地方乘船的潛在乘客對這 0.25 美元的數字有什麼影響嗎？

James, it's Michael.

詹姆斯，這是麥可。

Yes, I mean, we've actually been quite active in developing the outbound market and, of course, this kind of really hit during the spring festival week.

是的，我的意思是，我們實際上在開發出境旅遊市場方面非常積極，當然，這在春節期間確實很受歡迎。

So we had some outbound business going to ships around the world.

所以我們有一些出境業務發送到世界各地的船舶。

But of course, a lot of that ended up canceling.

但當然，其中很多最終都被取消了。

That number is built into the $0.25 that we've already spoken about.

這個數字已包含在我們已經討論過的 0.25 美元中​​。

And now, obviously, there are no -- there's really no outbound business, but it peaked during the spring week and it dropped down significantly after that.

現在，顯然沒有——確實沒有出境業務，但在春季的那一周達到頂峰，然後大幅下降。

So there's really minimal impact at the moment.

所以目前影響真的很小。

And James, just to add into it, the benefits -- obviously, the ships like Spectrum of the Seas which is really dedicated to the Chinese market has a greater impact to us because 99.5% of those guests are Chinese.

詹姆斯，補充一下好處——顯然，像海洋光譜號這樣真正致力於中國市場的船舶對我們的影響更大，因為這些客人中 99.5% 是中國人。

With the outbound space, we have the opportunity to be able to source guests from other markets, which will help abate some of that risk.

有了出境空間，我們就有機會從其他市場吸引客人，這將有助於減輕部分風險。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just as a follow-up, and this might be difficult at this point, obviously.

然後作為後續行動，顯然，目前這可能很困難。

But are there any rules of thumb as we think about modeling your earnings power, not just as of today, but as news develops?

但是，當我們考慮對你的盈利能力進行建模時，是否有任何經驗法則，不僅是在今天，而且隨著新聞的發展？

Is there any sort of rule of thumb, every time a voyage gets canceled, the $0.25, 8 voyages would get us to about $0.03 per ship?

是否有任何經驗法則，每次航程被取消，0.25 美元，8 個航程將使我們每艘船大約 0.03 美元？

Is it that simple?

真有這麼簡單嗎？

I'm assuming that it's not, but how do we think about that?

我假設事實並非如此，但我們如何看待這一點？

And have you thought about your communication strategy as we move forward?

隨著我們前進，您是否考慮過您的溝通策略？

And you learn more, are we going to be getting sort of updates, press releases or are we likely not going to hear from you for the next sort of 3 months as news develops?

您會了解更多信息，我們是否會收到更新、新聞稿，或者隨著新聞的發展，我們可能在接下來的 3 個月內不會收到您的消息？

Yes.

是的。

So it's not that linear or you can just take a certain number per voyage.

所以它不是那麼線性，或者你可以在每次航程中獲得一定的數量。

There is variations depending on the timing of those sailings inside the months that are out there.

根據幾個月內的航行時間，會有一些變化。

And obviously, we don't have a second ship coming in now for several months.

顯然，我們已經好幾個月沒有第二艘船了。

I think in terms of our communication strategy, I don't think we have a set time line to it, but I think that we kind of pride ourselves with being transparent to the investment community.

我認為就我們的溝通策略而言，我認為我們沒有設定時間表，但我認為我們對投資界保持透明感到自豪。

And as we learn more, I think we would try to take the opportunity to share that impact.

隨著我們了解更多，我認為我們會嘗試利用這個機會分享這種影響。

Your next question comes from Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的蒂姆·康德。

Just a couple more.

還有幾個。

Jason, you had said that, obviously, as you continue to ramp up the technology component of your CapEx, that does have a shorter depreciable life and then that's where some of the additional spending is occurring along with some employee cost in 2020.

Jason，您曾說過，顯然，隨著您繼續增加資本支出的技術部分，其折舊年限確實會縮短，這就是 2020 年一些額外支出和一些員工成本發生的地方。

But is there anything you're doing maybe amping up a little bit of marketing, just given everything that's gone on here year-to-date and maybe the increased uncertainty as to how that could or could not impact other areas.

但是，考慮到今年迄今為止發生的一切，以及可能會或不會影響其他領域的不確定性增加，您正在做的事情是否可能會加強一點行銷。

Thankfully, it hasn't so far.

值得慶幸的是，到目前為止還沒有。

Is there any component of that in your spending?

您的支出中有這方面的成分嗎？

And then also related to the cost, can you quantify for us the Grand Bahama impact to the equity income or just some ballpark area as well as the wildfires and the other geopolitical items?

然後也與成本相關，您能否為我們量化大巴哈馬對股權收入或僅對某些棒球場以及野火和其他地緣政治項目的影響？

Sure.

當然。

So on the marketing side, there's certainly more marketing costs in the first half of the year.

所以在行銷方面，上半年的行銷成本一定會更多。

Most of that is just driven due to the election coming up.

其中大部分只是由於即將到來的選舉而推動的。

So we are trying to get ahead of that cycle.

因此，我們正在努力超越這個週期。

As it relates to Grand Bahama, as I said, in the first quarter, there's about $0.12 or $0.13 -- I'm sorry, $12 million to $13 million of equity pickup loss due to that dry dock being closed.

正如我所說，與大巴哈馬島有關，第一季大約有 0.12 或 0.13 美元——對不起，由於乾船塢關閉，股本損失為 1200 萬至 1300 萬美元。

Okay.

好的。

And then any quantification on the Australian wildfire impact or Hong Kong and Middle East impacts?

那麼對澳洲野火影響或香港和中東影響有任何量化嗎？

No.

不。

But certainly, Dubai due to the Middle East, Australia and Hong Kong have -- are weighing on our yields in the first quarter.

但可以肯定的是，由於中東、澳洲和香港的影響，杜拜正在對我們第一季的收益率造成壓力。

Okay.

好的。

And if I may throw one other.

如果我可以丟掉另一個的話。

TUI Cruise, how is that looking at this point, the demand from that JV on a year-over-year basis?

TUI Cruise，從目前來看，該合資企業的需求與去年同期相比如何？

Yes.

是的。

So 2019 was a more challenging top line year for the German market.

因此，2019 年對德國市場來說是更具挑戰性的一年。

But as we look into 2020, we're seeing a lot of strength in booking on both a rate and volume basis.

但展望 2020 年，我們發現預訂在價格和數量方面都表現強勁。

Your next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

2 questions.

2 個問題。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Robin, we're having trouble hearing you.

羅賓，我們聽不清楚你的聲音。

It's very -- it's very in and out.

這是非常——非常進出。

So I didn't even hear the question.

所以我什至沒有聽到這個問題。

Your -- that longer-term guidance.

您的－長期指導。

I know you're not very specific to the yield range and that is that you guys historically talked about 2% to 3% growth.

我知道你們對收益率範圍不是很具體，你們歷來談論過 2% 到 3% 的成長。

And I'm just wondering, given that you've been coming in ahead of that for the last couple of years, even outside of the added drivers, is it fair to think that if you came in at the range where you've been growing yield for last 3 years, that there would be upside to that 2025 number?

我只是想知道，鑑於您在過去幾年中一直領先於這一水平，即使在增加的驅動程序之外，是否公平地認為，如果您進入了您一直以來的範圍過去3 年產量不斷增長，到2025 年這個數字還會有上升嗎？

Sure, sure.

一定一定。

So first, as Richard says, we're -- we're not just trying to hit the ball, we're trying to swing through the ball.

所以首先，正如理查德所說，我們不僅僅是試圖擊球，我們還試圖揮桿擊球。

And if you look at -- or in my commentary, I think what we're looking for here is to leverage the investments we're making, to have moderate yield growth and continue to have good cost to someone.

如果你看一下——或者在我的評論中，我認為我們在這裡尋求的是利用我們正在進行的投資，實現適度的收益率成長，並繼續為某人帶來良好的成本。

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

So the only word I heard there was China, Robin.

所以我在那裡聽到的唯一的詞是中國，羅賓。

So why don't -- I'll follow up with you after to answer the question, but it was -- it was very difficult to hear you.

那麼為什麼不——我會在回答這個問題後跟進你，但事實上——很難聽到你的聲音。

So I'll follow up with you.

所以我會跟進你。

Your next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）。

2 follow-ups.

2 次後續行動。

So first on TUI, how do you think about the value or opportunity in Continental Europe brands, whether organically through TUI or via M&A longer term?

首先，關於途易，您如何看待歐洲大陸品牌的價值或機會，無論是透過途易有機還是透過長期併購？

And then second, on the near-term first quarter targets, can you just talk to what is embedded in the net cruise costs kind of across dry dock, puts and takes, marketing costs, et cetera?

其次，關於近期第一季的目標，您能否談談跨幹船塢的淨遊輪成本、投入與拿取、行銷成本等內容？

Well, as it relates to -- TUI Cruise is, obviously, I mean, the performance of that brand has been exceptional, and we really believe that in the German market and TUI Cruise's position in that market, how it's trading, how it's growing in its demand, we're very happy and which makes us very excited about the German market and the overall European market.

嗯，正如它所涉及的那樣——顯然，我的意思是，途易遊輪該品牌的表現非常出色，我們真的相信在德國市場以及途易遊輪在該市場的地位，它的交易方式，它成長的方式對於它的需求，我們非常高興，這讓我們對德國市場和整個歐洲市場感到非常興奮。

As it relates to -- on the cost, I think you were talking about the first quarter, your cost piece.

就成本而言，我認為您談論的是第一季的成本部分。

The main drivers in that first quarter are really just driven by investments in marketing, in technology and in G&A.

第一季的主要驅動力實際上只是由行銷、技術和一般管理費用投資所驅動的。

Certainly, Perfect Day plays into that a little bit.

當然，《完美的一天》也發揮了一點作用。

It's about 60 basis points of the first quarter cost increase.

第一季成本增加約 60 個基點。

So I guess, a quick follow-up on that.

所以我想，對此進行快速跟進。

So can you -- is there any way you can help quantify the dry dock puts and takes as we think about the ships that are in and out and maybe the cost of each?

那麼，當我們考慮進出的船舶以及每艘船舶的成本時，有什麼方法可以幫助量化乾船塢的投入和消耗？

Well, the dry docks for the first quarter in itself, it's lighter in the first half of the year than it is -- I'm sorry, there's more dry docks in the first half of the year than there is in the first.

嗯，第一季的乾船塢本身，上半年比實際情況要少——對不起，今年上半年的干船塢數量比上半年多。

So probably about 1 point of that cost increase, more or less about 1 point of the cost increase is driven by months having more dry dock days in the first half of the year -- or in the first quarter.

因此，成本增加的大約 1 個百分點，或多或少大約 1 個百分點的成本增加是由上半年（或第一季）乾船塢天數較多的月份推動的。

Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

Great.

偉大的。

So you noted the contingency plans that you have in place in China.

您提到了中國制定的應急計劃。

I was just wondering if the present situation continues on like it is, and the Greater China industry also looks to move ships elsewhere, which markets do you think will most likely be the most popular targets?

我只是想知道如果目前的情況持續下去，大中華區的行業也希望將船舶轉移到其他地方，您認為哪些市場最有可能成為最受歡迎的目標？

And how does that play into your strategy?

這對你的策略有何影響？

So Brandt, obviously, we're monitoring events and we're looking at competitors.

顯然，布蘭特我們正在監控事件並關注競爭對手。

We have our plans in place.

我們已經制定了計劃。

We have alternatives.

我們還有其他選擇。

We filled it through.

我們把它填滿了。

I really don't actually want to go into detail on this call about what those plans are because we are in a very competitive environment.

我真的不想在這次電話會議上詳細說明這些計劃是什麼，因為我們處於一個競爭非常激烈的環境中。

So we don't want to start talking about where we're planning on deploying if this really does play out to a much longer time spend.

因此，如果這確實需要花費更長的時間，我們不想開始談論我們計劃在哪裡部署。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Okay.

好的。

And then on fuel, just given the mix shift and the way that your hedge book has probably changed now versus 12 months ago, could you either give us sort of sensitivity between the 2 fuel grades or a fuel grade mix on the -- at the pump portion of your exposure?

然後在燃料方面，考慮到混合變化以及您的套期保值簿現在與 12 個月前相比可能發生的變化，您能否為我們提供兩種燃料等級之間的敏感性或燃料等級組合 - 在您暴露的幫浦部分？

Well, our goal is to mainly have a similar mix of our fuel to the balance of 2020 as we had in 2019.

嗯，我們的目標是在 2020 年的剩餘時間裡主要使用與 2019 年類似的燃料組合。

We are more hedged on the MGO side, and those schedules will get published in our -- by Carola later in the day for you to be able to have the mix of fuel and those hedge positions.

我們在 MGO 方面進行了更多對沖，這些時間表將在當天晚些時候由卡羅拉在我們的網站上發布，以便您能夠混合燃料和對沖頭寸。

And then from there, you should be able to look at the flex in MGO and IFO fuels.

然後從那裡，您應該能夠了解 MGO 和 IFO 燃料的靈活性。

Your next question comes from Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva。

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

The first one, in terms of China and enforcement of people who have traveled to China in the past, within the past 15 days, that seems to be somewhat easy, looking at their passports.

第一個是關於中國以及對過去 15 天內去過中國的人的執法，這似乎有點簡單，看他們的護照。

But it seems that a couple of the other items that you intend to enforce seem to be on honor system, whether they've been in contact with individuals or report feeling unwell.

但似乎您打算執行的其他一些項目似乎屬於榮譽系統，無論他們是否與個人接觸過或報告感覺不適。

That would be enough to prevent a negative event where you have even, let's say, 1 passenger reported with the virus because we saw what happened with Costa, and that was a significant hit.

這足以防止負面事件，比如說，一名乘客報告感染了病毒，因為我們看到了科斯塔發生的事情，這是一個重大打擊。

Yes, it's Michael.

是的，這是邁克爾。

Obviously, it's a very dynamic and moving situation.

顯然，這是一個非常充滿活力和動人的情況。

We're monitoring this on a daily basis.

我們每天都會對此進行監控。

We have a medical team as part of our company and we're very connected to the World Health Organization and CDC.

我們公司擁有一支醫療團隊，我們與世界衛生組織和疾病預防控制中心有著密切的聯繫。

I think you'll see that as each day passes, different countries enforce different rules, protocols and regulations.

我想你會發現，隨著時間的推移，不同的國家執行不同的規則、協議和法規。

We implemented protocols early last week, about -- almost up to 2 weeks ago.

我們上週早些時候實施了協議，大約——差不多兩週前。

And we're monitoring all of these different protocols.

我們正在監控所有這些不同的協定。

So I think with regards to people who from, to or transited through Mainland China or Hong Kong, nearly all countries now are adopting the same kind of protocols, generally.

因此，我認為對於來自、前往或過境中國大陸或香港的人，現在幾乎所有國家都普遍採用相同的協議。

We also have, as you say, part of it is an honor system, but we have a secondary screening system in place on our fleet that's been in place now for quite some time, which monitors activity in passports and, of course, the passport holder themselves, and we are taking temperatures, et cetera, et cetera.

正如你所說，我們也有一個榮譽系統，但我們的機隊有一個二級篩選系統，該系統已經存在相當長一段時間了，該系統監控護照中的活動，當然還有護照保持自己，我們正在測量溫度，等等。

So yes, you're right.

所以是的，你是對的。

I mean, I think, it's, of course, a possibility but not only are countries, but our company itself are taking a series of what we believe to be very prudent and sensible actions that will not entirely eliminate the risk but massively minimize this risk.

我的意思是，我認為，這當然是一種可能性，但不僅是國家，而且我們公司本身正在採取一系列我們認為非常謹慎和明智的行動，這些行動不會完全消除風險，但會大大降低這種風險。

Michael, and I definitely will not be allowed on the ship because I'm wondering whether -- as you might be able to hear from my voice, but it's good to know that you're monitoring temperatures, et cetera.

邁克爾，我肯定不會被允許上船，因為我想知道是否——正如你可能從我的聲音中聽到的那樣，但很高興知道你正在監測溫度等。

And as a follow-up, airlift that has been limited, could that affect voyages that sail out of Japan or other destinations in the Pacific, including to Australia?

作為後續措施，空運受到限制，這是否會影響從日本或太平洋其他目的地（包括澳洲）出發的航行？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think, again, to my previous comment, it's really a dynamic, moving situation.

我的意思是，我想，對於我之前的評論，這確實是一個充滿活力、令人感動的情況。

There are various changes that are being put into place by different countries, et cetera.

不同國家等正在實施各種變革。

We've seen change with airlift from the -- for example, the Western American Airlines, where they did suspend flights in and out of China until the end of March.

我們已經看到了空運方面的變化——例如，西美航空，他們確實暫停了進出中國的航班，直到三月底。

We're not really seeing a lot of regional disruption in terms of flights, et cetera.

我們並沒有真正看到航班等方面出現很多區域性中斷。

What we are seeing is different countries adopting these various protocols, which seem to be moving to a similar protocol.

我們看到不同的國家採用這些不同的協議，這些協議似乎正在轉向類似的協議。

I think the World Health Organization made a point last week when they spoke about the smaller countries that obviously have less resources to deal with this, and they tend to still be making different decisions as it relates to their individual protocols.

我認為世界衛生組織上週談到了較小的國家，這些國家顯然沒有足夠的資源來應對這個問題，而且他們往往仍然會做出與各自協議相關的不同決定。

But that's more of an impact on individual itineraries.

但這對個人行程的影響更大。

And of course, we always have alternative ports of call to visit.

當然，我們總是有其他停靠港可供參觀。

So again, it's difficult to answer specifically.

再說一次，很難具體回答。

I think it's just a dynamic, moving situation.

我認為這只是一個動態的、移動的情況。

The good thing is that there is a really universal effort to work together to contain and minimize the impact of this situation.

好消息是，大家確實在共同努力，遏制並盡量減少這種情況的影響。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And if I can sneak one last one in.

如果我能偷偷溜進最後一顆就好了。

And here's my wishful thinking possibly, with IMO 2020 now in place, do you think -- and maybe, Jason, you might be able to answer this best, do you think that we might see a decline in IFO prices, which would offset the increased demand for MGO to a point where we're not going to see quite as much of a pickup in fuel prices post hedge?

這可能是我的一廂情願，隨著 IMO 2020 的實施，你認為——也許，傑森，你可能能夠回答這個問題，你認為我們可能會看到 IFO 價格下降，這將抵消對MGO 的需求增加到我們不會看到對沖後燃料價格大幅上漲的程度？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I think that is a working theory.

嗯，我認為這是一個可行的理論。

It's also why if you look at our hedge position, we're hedged more in MGO than we are in IFO is that it is rational that as time goes on here, demand for IFO is going to drop -- continue to drop and, of course, demand for MGO is going to continue to rise.

這也是為什麼如果你看一下我們的對沖頭寸，我們在MGO 中的對沖比在IFO 中的對沖更多，因為隨著時間的推移，對IFO 的需求將會下降——繼續下降，這是合理的。

Your last question comes from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

你的最後一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究中心的文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)。

Just big picture.

只是大圖。

Just curious how you feel today versus back in November setting aside the impact of coronavirus kind of across your core North American or European markets?

只是好奇，拋開冠狀病毒對北美或歐洲核心市場的影響，與 11 月相比，您今天的感受如何？

How do you feel about the trajectory of bookings and pricing growth?

您對預訂量和價格成長的軌跡有何看法？

And maybe specifically, I think it was in November that you noted pricing was tracking ahead for all quarters.

也許具體來說，我認為您在 11 月注意到所有季度的定價都在上漲。

I'm just trying to reconcile that with 1Q, which, I guess, it's kind of guided flat.

我只是試圖將其與 1Q 協調起來，我猜，這是一種引導平坦。

But has anything changed in the last 90 days with 1Q specifically?

但在過去 90 天內，1Q 有什麼具體變化嗎？

No, this is Richard.

不，這是理查。

I think we were feeling quite good then, and we have been reassured by seeing the call volume and the response on bookings in the WAVE period.

我認為我們當時感覺很好，看到 WAVE 期間的電話量和預訂反應，我們就放心了。

As we said, there are some exceptions, and we've pointed out a couple in the Gulf and in Australia.

正如我們所說，也有一些例外，我們指出了海灣地區和澳洲的一些例外。

But the strength of the bookings, frankly, we have found -- outside of the Coronavirus, we have found really very reassuring.

但坦白說，我們發現，除了冠狀病毒之外，預訂量的強勁確實非常令人放心。

So I think just from an overall point of view, we feel quite good about the year.

所以我認為，從整體角度來看，我們對這一年的感覺相當好。

And Vince, just to add, in our last call, when we talked about the cadence of our yield growth, we did point that we expected Q1 to be lighter because our yields last year were up over 9%.

文斯補充道，在我們上次的電話會議中，當我們談到收益率成長的節奏時，我們確實指出，我們預計第一季的收益率會較輕，因為去年我們的收益率成長了9 % 以上。

And then, of course, we had Cuba we were going to have to deal with which is impacting us by 120 basis points.

當然，我們也必須應對古巴，這對我們的影響達 120 個基點。

So we knew that Q1 was going to be a more challenging quarter, which is why we said it at that point in time.

因此，我們知道第一季將是一個更具挑戰性的季度，這就是我們當時這麼說的原因。

But if you look into our -- just to our -- when we say since our last call our bookings have trended up by 6% for 2020, that would just show that our sentiment broadly is very, very good.

但如果你看看我們的——只是我們的——當我們說自上次電話以來我們的預訂量在 2020 年增長了 6% 時，這只會表明我們的情緒總體上非常非常好。

We've made this point in previous calls.

我們在先前的電話會議中已經指出了這一點。

Most industries, when you look to the calendarization, it is the -- cycle is time to define and so you expect a certain sequence between the quarters.

大多數行業，當您查看日曆時，它是定義週期的時間，因此您期望季度之間有一定的順序。

Our quarters within the year tend to be more defined by specific events, the delivery of a new ship when the dry docks take place.

我們一年中的季度往往更多地由特定事件來定義，例如乾船塢交付新船時。

So ours is more episodic, and we have known and tried to telegraph for a while that the first quarter of this year episodically is low, but that doesn't impact our overall position for the year.

因此，我們的情況更具偶發性，我們已經知道並試圖表明今年第一季的偶發性較低，但這並不影響我們今年的整體狀況。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for your assistance, Mariama, with the call today, and we thank you all for your participation and interest in the company.

瑪麗亞瑪，感謝您今天致電的協助，我們感謝大家的參與和對公司的興趣。

Carola will be available for any follow-ups you might have, and we really wish you all a great day.

卡羅拉將隨時為您提供任何後續服務，我們衷心祝福您有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。