RBC Bearings Inc (RBC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

    Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings fiscal second-quarter 2025 earnings call.

    早安,感謝您參加 RBC Bearings 2025 財年第二季財報電話會議。

  • I'm Rob Moffatt, Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations.

    我是羅布·莫法特,企業發展和投資者關係總監。

  • And with me on today's call are Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Daniel Bergeron, Director, Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Michael Hartnett 博士; Daniel Bergeron,董事、副總裁兼營運長;副總裁兼財務長 Rob Sullivan。

  • As a reminder, some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    提醒一下,今天發表的一些聲明可能具有前瞻性,並且是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors.

    由於多種因素,實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。

  • We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition.

    我們建議您參閱 RBC Bearings 最近向 SEC 提交的文件,以更詳細地討論可能影響該公司未來經營業績和財務狀況的風險。

  • These factors are also listed in the press release along with a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information.

    這些因素以及 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務資訊之間的調整也列在新聞稿中。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

    現在,我將把電話轉給哈內特醫生。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

    大家早安,感謝您加入我們。

  • I'm going to start today's call with a quick review of our financial results, and I'll finish with some high-level thoughts on the industry and our outlook for the remainder of 2025.

    我將在今天的電話會議開始時快速回顧一下我們的財務業績,最後我將對行業進行一些高層思考以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。

  • I'll then hand it over to Rob Sullivan for more detailed color following on the numbers.

    然後我會將其交給 Rob Sullivan,以便在數字上提供更詳細的顏色。

  • Second quarter net sales came in at $398 million, a 3.2% increase over last year, driven by continued strong performance in our A&D segment, and what we believe was continued outperformance versus peers on the industrial side.

    第二季淨銷售額為 3.98 億美元,比去年增長 3.2%,這得益於我們的 A&D 部門持續強勁的業績,以及我們認為與工業領域同行相比繼續表現出色的推動力。

  • Total A&D sales were up 12.5% year-over-year, with 17.3% growth on the defense side and 10.3% growth on the commercial aerospace.

    A&D 銷售總額較去年同期成長 12.5%,其中國防領域成長 17.3%,商業航空領域成長 10.3%。

  • On the industrial side, the segment came down 1.4% year-over-year with OEM down 2.5% and aftermarket sales down 0.9%.

    在工業方面,該細分市場年減 1.4%,其中 OEM 銷售額下降 2.5%,售後市場銷售額下降 0.9%。

  • Before I go too deep into the quarterly results, I wanted to spend a minute or two, on the strength you are seeing currently statement on the defense side of the business.

    在深入了解季度業績之前,我想花一兩分鐘了解您目前看到的有關業務防禦方面的聲明。

  • Year-to-date sales stands at an impressive 26.7% organic growth versus last year.

    年初至今,銷售額與去年相比實現了 26.7% 的有機成長,令人印象深刻。

  • We are seeing exceptionally strong demand in our [arrangement] business where there is multiyear backlog that can provide additional growth.

    我們發現我們的[安排]業務需求異常強勁,多年積壓的訂單可以帶來額外的成長。

  • We are also seeing continued strong and urgent demand for our fixed wing and missile guided munitions category.

    我們也看到對我們的固定翼和飛彈導引彈藥類別的持續強勁和緊迫的需求。

  • With the current political backdrop, we are planning for the continuation of this demand through the remainder of this year into next on.

    在當前的政治背景下,我們計劃在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續保持這種需求。

  • During the period, we saw unexpected headwinds from Boeing strike the impact of Hurricane [Beryl.] Later resulted in a plant shutdown in Ashmore, North Carolina for over a week.

    在此期間,我們看到波音公司遭受了颶風[Beryl]的意外逆風。

  • These events impacted revenues by $4 million to $5 million in the period.

    這些事件影響了該期間 400 萬至 500 萬美元的收入。

  • Well, now summer's over.

    好吧,現在夏天已經結束了。

  • We're moving to the performance during the period.

    我們將進入這段時間的表演。

  • Gross margin in the quarter came in at $173.8 million or 43.7% of sales, a 55-point increase year-over-year.

    該季度毛利率為 1.738 億美元,佔銷售額的 43.7%,較去年同期成長 55 個百分點。

  • The biggest drivers of our margin expansion continue to be increased absorption of our aerospace and defense capacity, ongoing synergies at dodge and a wide range of smaller projects on a plant-by-plant basis that we continue to identify through the RBC of management process.

    我們利潤率擴張的最大驅動因素仍然是我們對航空航天和國防能力的吸收增加、道奇的持續協同效應以及我們繼續透過 RBC 管理流程確定的逐個工廠的各種小型專案。

  • I'd like to acknowledge and thank our teams for this performance.

    我要對我們團隊的表現表示認可和感謝。

  • They are the driving force behind the projects that deliver these results.

    他們是實現這些成果的專案背後的驅動力。

  • They are the foundation of our culture of continuous improvement.

    它們是我們持續改善文化的基礎。

  • Net income of $67 million was up 6% year-over-year, and that translated into an adjusted EPS of $2.29 per share compared to last year's $2.17 per share.

    淨利潤為 6,700 萬美元,年增 6%,調整後每股收益為 2.29 美元,去年為每股 2.17 美元。

  • Cash from operations came in at $43 million and compares to $53 million last year, with the timing and scope of cash tax payments as the biggest factor in year-over-year comparison.

    營運現金為 4,300 萬美元,而去年為 5,300 萬美元,其中現金稅支付的時間和範圍是同比的最大因素。

  • We use our cash to continue to deleverage the balance sheet of over $35 million of debt reduction in the quarter, taking our trailing net leverage to rise approximately 2 times

    我們使用現金繼續對資產負債表進行去槓桿化,本季減少了超過 3500 萬美元的債務,使我們的追蹤淨槓桿率上升了約 2 倍

  • (technical difficulty).

    (技術難度)。

  • As a reminder, we are targeting a $275 million to $300 million debt reduction for the year, which should allow us to exit the year nicely below the 2 times turn mark, leaving our balance sheet well positioned for further acquisition interests.

    提醒一下,我們的目標是今年減少2.75 億至3 億美元的債務,這將使我們能夠以遠低於兩倍的周轉率結束今年,從而使我們的資產負債表為進一步的收購利益做好準備。

  • Moving to our outlook.

    轉向我們的展望。

  • On the A&D side, demand remains very strong.

    在航空航太和國防領域,需求仍然非常強勁。

  • As a result of recent events, Boeing is playing an increasingly smaller role in our revenues, and we expect this to continue over the balance of this quarter and into next.

    由於最近發生的事件,波音在我們的收入中所扮演的角色越來越小,我們預計這種情況將在本季度剩餘時間和下一季繼續下去。

  • And consequently, we are planning our business accordingly.

    因此,我們正在相應地規劃我們的業務。

  • When their strike go in and how the plan to step up production of the 737 year frame is not at all clear to us at this time.

    他們的罷工何時開始,以及計劃如何加強 737 年機架的生產,目前我們還不清楚。

  • Of course, the production of the 787 ship remains unaffected.

    當然,787船的生產不受影響。

  • We do know that their backlog for 737 is substantial.

    我們確實知道 737 的積壓量很大。

  • Their customers need the aircraft some desperately.

    他們的客戶迫切需要這架飛機。

  • We stand in a perfect position to support any production rate set by management.

    我們處於完美位置,可以支持管理層設定的任何生產力。

  • We expect clarification in the next few weeks on these matters regarding production rates and are currently busy negotiating and ending contracts now that will support production for Boeing through 2030.

    我們預計未來幾週內有關生產率的問題將得到澄清,目前正忙於談判和終止合同,這些合同將支持波音公司到 2030 年的生產。

  • Using these assumptions and with the strong results already delivered in the first half of the year, I believe our A&D business should be able to deliver low to mid-term growth for the full year.

    利用這些假設以及上半年已經取得的強勁業績,我相信我們的 A&D 業務應該能夠實現全年的中低成長。

  • On the industrial side, I was pleased with the results we saw in the second quarter, including the continued strength in grain, food and beverage and power generation.

    在工業方面,我對第二季的業績感到滿意,包括糧食、食品和飲料以及發電的持續強勁。

  • All of our weakness was concentrated into a new end market, primarily oil and gas.

    我們所有的弱點都集中在新的終端市場,主要是石油和天然氣。

  • As a result of inventory corrections during the period at 2 [percent].

    由於本期間庫存修正為 2%。

  • I believe our industrial business can return to growth in the back half of the year and as at for some of these end markets rollup and our relentless focus on driving organic growth continuous.

    我相信我們的工業業務可以在今年下半年恢復成長,並且隨著其中一些終端市場的擴大以及我們對推動持續有機成長的不懈關注。

  • Looking forward to next year, as we develop our operating budgets today, we see, number one, continued defense demand led by new products and weapons.

    展望明年,當我們今天制定營運預算時,我們首先看到的是新產品和武器主導的持續國防需求。

  • Boeing 737 old rigs at the 38% rate pushing towards 50% rate in '27.

    波音 737 舊鑽孔機的稅率為 38%,到 27 年將提高到 50%。

  • Strong and increasing demand for jet engine components for repairs, strengthening investment demand based products playing an increasingly significant role in our lineup of revenues, impactful synergies from Dodge acquisitions as we ended tooling and testing cycle and begin the reassuring of some products at RBC plants.

    對噴射發動機維修零件的需求強勁且不斷增長,基於投資需求的產品在我們的收入陣容中發揮著越來越重要的作用,隨著我們結束工具和測試週期並開始對RBC 工廠的某些產品進行保證,收購道奇產生了有影響力的綜效。

  • An important and incremental expansion of our statements of work both European aerospace community.

    我們歐洲航空航天界工作聲明的重要且漸進的擴展。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to Rob for more details on financials.

    現在,我將把電話轉給 Rob,以了解有關財務的更多詳細資訊。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Thank you, Mike.

    謝謝你,麥克。

  • As Dr. Hartnett indicated, this was another strong quarter for RBC despite the short-term and onetime challenges in the period.

    正如 Hartnett 博士指出的那樣,儘管在此期間遇到了短期和一次性的挑戰,但 RBC 仍表現強勁。

  • Net sales growth of 3.2% drove gross margin growth of 4.5% year-over-year with 55 basis points of gross margin percentage expansion.

    淨銷售額成長 3.2%,帶動毛利率年增 4.5%,毛利率提高 55 個基點。

  • This year-over-year margin expansion was primarily reflected in our Industrial segment, where we continue to see strong execution and the benefits of Dodge synergies achieved.

    利潤率的同比增長主要反映在我們的工業部門,我們繼續看到強勁的執行力和道奇協同效應所帶來的好處。

  • On the SG&A line, we continued our investments in our future growth.

    在SG&A方面,我們持續對未來成長進行投資。

  • This includes investment in personnel costs for existing talent as well as new resources such as sales force additions to support the international expansion that we previously highlighted.

    這包括對現有人才的人員成本投資以及新資源(例如增加銷售人員)以支持我們先前強調的國際擴張。

  • In addition, we continued our investment in back office support, including IT and had incremental professional and travel fees during the period.

    此外,我們繼續對後台支援(包括 IT)進行投資,並在此期間增加了專業費用和差旅費。

  • This led to adjusted EBITDA of $123.4 million, up 1.1% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31%, which was down 66 basis points year-over-year against the tough comp, but still above 2024s full year 30.9% margin.

    這導致調整後 EBITDA 為 1.234 億美元,年增 1.1%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 31%,與艱難的比較相比,同比下降 66 個基點,但仍高於 2024 年全年 30.9%利潤。

  • Interest expense in the quarter was $15.6 million.

    本季利息支出為 1560 萬美元。

  • This was down 22% year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing repayment of our term loan and revolver lower rates on our variable rate debt and the benefits from our interest rate and cross currency swaps.

    這一數字年減 22%,反映了我們定期貸款和循環貸款的持續償還,可變利率債務的利率較低,以及我們的利率和交叉貨幣掉期帶來的好處。

  • The tax rate in our adjusted EPS calculation was 22.1%, reasonably consistent with last year's rate of 22%.

    我們調整後每股盈餘計算中的稅率為 22.1%,與去年 22% 的稅率相當一致。

  • Altogether, this led to adjusted diluted EPS of $2.29, representing year-over-year growth of 5.5%, an impressive result given some of the short-term headwinds in the quarter.

    總而言之,調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.29 美元,年增 5.5%,考慮到本季的一些短期不利因素,這一結果令人印象深刻。

  • In terms of cash flow through the first six months of fiscal 2025, we have generated $140.4 million in cash from operations, with free cash flow conversion of approximately 100% of net income.

    就 2025 財年前六個月的現金流而言,我們從營運中產生了 1.404 億美元的現金,自由現金流轉換約為淨利潤的 100%。

  • Our second quarter free cash flow was impacted by the timing of certain tax payments and the purchase of a building in Switzerland for approximately $8 million during the quarter, which was previously leased.

    我們第二季的自由現金流受到某些納稅時間以及本季以約 800 萬美元購買瑞士一棟先前租賃的建築物的影響。

  • A portion of this was financed with a 10-year mortgage at 2.2%.

    其中一部分是透過 2.2% 的 10 年期的抵押貸款融資。

  • Our six month free cash flow has increased 14.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by net income growth results during the period.

    我們的六個月自由現金流年增 14.5%,這主要是受期內淨利成長結果的推動。

  • As usual, we will use a meaningful portion of the cash generated to continue to deleverage the balance sheet.

    像往常一樣,我們將使用產生的現金的很大一部分來繼續去槓桿化資產負債表。

  • We repaid over $35 million of debt during the quarter with another large $32 million payment crossing the wire two days after the quarter's close.

    我們在本季償還了超過 3,500 萬美元的債務,並在本季結束兩天後又支付了 3,200 萬美元的大筆款項。

  • If you include that payment, it takes our total year-to-date debt reduction to $128.7 million.

    如果算上這筆付款,我們今年迄今的債務削減總額將達到 1.287 億美元。

  • And in terms of our free cash flow generation going forward, the October 15 automatic conversion of our Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock is not only slightly accretive to EPS, but also removes the cash dividend payment, reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23 million on an annualized basis.

    就我們未來的自由現金流產生而言,我們的A 系列強制可轉換優先股於10 月15 日自動轉換,不僅略微增加了每股收益,而且還取消了現金股息支付,使我們未來的總現金支出減少了約23 美元萬元(按年計算)。

  • This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal 2024 total free cash flow.

    這大約佔 2024 財年自由現金流總額的 9.5%。

  • In the third quarter, when calculating EPS, we anticipate net income to be reduced by approximately $1 million of dividend cost and the diluted EPS to include approximately 1.8 million additional shares from the conversion.

    在第三季度,在計算每股盈餘時,我們預期淨利將減少約100萬美元的股息成本,稀釋後的每股盈餘將包括因轉換而增加的約180萬股。

  • The full impact of the shares will be reflected in the fourth quarter when they are all outstanding for the full period.

    這些股票的全部影響將在第四季度反映出來,屆時它們將在整個期間內流通。

  • Looking into the third quarter, we expect revenues of $390 million to $400 million, representing year-over-year growth of 4.3% to 7%.

    展望第三季度,我們預計營收為 3.9 億美元至 4 億美元,年增 4.3% 至 7%。

  • As a reminder, many of our plants, our fiscal third quarter includes fewer selling days due to holidays and is typically our lightest quarter of the year.

    提醒一下,我們的許多工廠,由於假期,我們的第三財季銷售天數較少,通常是我們一年中銷量最淡的季度。

  • Our guidance is calling for flattish revenue trends as compared to Q2 2025 despite the selling day headwind and despite the aerospace OEM headwinds that Dr. Hartnett pointed out earlier.

    儘管哈特內特博士先前指出的銷售日不利因素以及航空航太 OEM 不利因素,但我們的指導意見認為,與 2025 年第二季相比,收入趨勢將持平。

  • This is driven primarily by ongoing strength in the broader market and industrial sales that should be comparable to that of Q2.

    這主要是由於更廣泛的市場持續強勁以及工業銷售應與第二季相當。

  • On the gross margin side, we are projecting gross margins of 42.5% to 43.5%, which would be an increase of roughly 70 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint.

    在毛利率方面,我們預期毛利率為 42.5% 至 43.5%,中間值年增約 70 個基點。

  • On the SG&A side, we expect SG&A as a percentage of sales to be in the 17% to 17.5% range during the third quarter.

    在SG&A方面,我們預期第三季SG&A佔銷售額的百分比將在17%至17.5%範圍內。

  • In closing, this is another strong quarter for RBC.

    最後,這是加拿大皇家銀行的另一個強勁季度。

  • We remain focused on leveraging our core strengths in engineering, manufacturing and product development to drive both organic and inorganic growth, continued margin excellence and high levels of free cash flow conversion.

    我們仍然專注於利用我們在工程、製造和產品開發方面的核心優勢來推動有機和無機成長、持續卓越的利潤率和高水準的自由現金流轉換。

  • With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

    那麼,接線員,請打開問答電話。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And at this time, we'll conduct our Q&A session.

    此時,我們將進行問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

    邁克爾·恰莫利 (Michael Ciarmoli),Truist 證券公司。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Just, -- I guess the strike -- combination of the strike implications, the hurricane, I think you called out the revenue impact.

    只是,——我猜是罷工——罷工影響和颶風的結合,我認為你提到了對收入的影響。

  • Any way to quantify the impact that may have had on gross margins.

    任何量化可能對毛利率影響的方法。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • -- Yes.

    - 是的。

  • I mean there's -- obviously, there's a way to do that, but I can't do it here and now.

    我的意思是——顯然,有一種方法可以做到這一點,但我現在不能這樣做。

  • If you just look at the consolidated gross margin, it's kind of reflective of those products.

    如果你只看綜合毛利率,它在某種程度上反映了這些產品。

  • So I've been just using the consolidated gross margin, as we are expecting for contribution would -- what that would have contributed to EPS, I think that's fair.

    因此,我一直只使用綜合毛利率,正如我們預期的那樣,這將對每股收益做出貢獻,我認為這是公平的。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Fair enough.

    很公平。

  • And then, Mike, I think you said the exposure to Boeing was down even further now.

    然後,麥克,我想你說過波音的風險敞口現在進一步下降了。

  • I mean does that incorporate Spirit as well?

    我的意思是這也包含了精神嗎?

  • And are you at a position now?

    那麼你現在處於一個位置嗎?

  • I know you guys always like to build strategic inventory and ship out of that strategic inventory.

    我知道你們總是喜歡建立戰略庫存並從該戰略庫存中發貨。

  • Are you -- have you built too much?

    你是不是建造太多了?

  • Is there going to be a destock period?

    是否會有去庫存期?

  • I know the lead times are definitely still elongated for some of your products.

    我知道你們的某些產品的交貨時間肯定仍然延長。

  • But any color in terms of once maybe I mean, I guess, first has to get at this sort of rate cap lifted.

    但我想,就一次而言,任何顏色都必須先取消這種利率上限。

  • But any thoughts on if there's a destock headwind once they start ramping again?

    但是,一旦他們再次開始增加庫存,是否會出現去庫存的逆風?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't see it.

    我沒看到。

  • I mean we've -- we're sort of down at the nadir, what we've been supplying that whole food chain in terms of products.

    我的意思是,我們為整個食物鏈提供的產品已經處於最低點。

  • So I think once they get back into production and start heading towards that 38 number, I think they're going to pull a big vacuum on the system.

    因此,我認為一旦他們重新投入生產並開始朝著 38 個數字邁進,我認為他們將為系統帶來巨大的真空。

  • Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

    Michael Ciarmoli - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And then just the last one.

    然後就是最後一個。

  • I mean, (technical difficulty) urgent demand for fixed wing munitions.

    我的意思是,(技術難度)固定翼彈藥的迫切需求。

  • Any -- I mean, I guess, just any more detail you could provide there if you're seeing more from Europe and NATO recapitalizing?

    我想,如果您看到歐洲和北約進行更多資本重組,您可以在那裡提供更多細節嗎?

  • Is it just all flowing through kind of the domestic prime contractors, maybe even what the pipeline looks like for some of these newer programs, I mean, we keep seeing a lot of new development platforms across a lot of different domains.

    它只是流經國內主要承包商嗎?

  • Any detail there?

    有詳細的嗎?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think the detail there is that there's just a lot of these guided weapons and shoulder mounted weapons use bearings, precision bearings and many of them are miniature bearings.

    嗯,我認為細節是,有很多導引武器和肩扛式武器使用軸承,精密軸承,其中許多是微型軸承。

  • And there is and those -- because they're US-made defense products, those miniature bearings have to be US-made bearings, -- US-made bearings, and there's that particular supply chain has atrophied over the last generation.

    還有那些 - 因為它們是美國製造的國防產品,這些微型軸承必須是美國製造的軸承, - 美國製造的軸承,並且特定的供應鏈在上一代中已經萎縮。

  • And now, there's not sufficient production capacity or miniature bearings to service the demand.

    而現在,沒有足夠的生產能力或微型軸承來滿足需求。

  • And I mean I'm not telling any secrets out of school here, but I mean defense departments offering special incentives to increase minister bearing production and we know about it.

    我的意思是,我不會在這裡向學校外透露任何秘密,但我的意思是,國防部提供特殊激勵措施來增加部長軸承的產量,我們都知道這一點。

  • We're not participating in it for other reasons, but we're not -- what we are aware of it.

    我們出於其他原因沒有參與其中,但我們並沒有——我們所意識到的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Skibitski, Alembic Global.

    Peter Skibitski,Alembic Global。

  • Peter Skibitski - Analyst

    Peter Skibitski - Analyst

  • Sorry if I -- sorry if I missed it, but I know you quantified the Asheville impact in, I guess, industrial.

    抱歉,如果我——抱歉,如果我錯過了,但我知道你量化了阿什維爾對工業的影響。

  • Can you quantify how much the Boeing IM strike negatively impacted the second quarter?

    您能否量化波音 IM 罷工對第二季的負面影響有多大?

  • And maybe give us a sense of how we should think about the back half of the year, the kind of lingering impact?

    或許讓我們了解該如何看待下半年,那種揮之不去的影響?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, yes, I think -- for the back half of our year, our assumption is based on the Boeing, being in production and the supply chain having the requirements for one month out of three.

    嗯,是的,我認為,對於今年下半年,我們的假設是基於波音公司,正在生產,供應鏈有三分之一的要求。

  • And is that the right number?

    這個數字正確嗎?

  • I don't know.

    我不知道。

  • It seemed to be conservative when we made it.

    我們做的時候似乎很保守。

  • This is now November and the strike looms, although it's -- maybe it will make progress today as I read the journal.

    現在是十一月,罷工迫在眉睫,儘管今天當我讀到這本日記時,也許會取得進展。

  • So yes, so what boiled into our numbers, is operating one month out of it.

    所以,是的,我們的數據中所包含的內容是一個月後的運行情況。

  • Peter Skibitski - Analyst

    Peter Skibitski - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So you're assuming sequentially your commercial aero revenue should be down in the third quarter?

    那麼您是否假設第三季您的商業航空收入應該會下降?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Peter Skibitski - Analyst

    Peter Skibitski - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then, just -- I mean, you had some nice backlog increase sequentially, I think about 4.6%.

    然後,我的意思是,積壓訂單連續增加,我認為約為 4.6%。

  • Was a lot of that commercial aerospace and I don't know, maybe this wide-body orders?

    是不是有很多商業航空航天訂單,我不知道,也許是寬體飛機訂單?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • A lot of that, Pete, would have been on the defense side.

    皮特,其中很多都是在防守方面。

  • Certainly, aerospace, defense segment heavy, but it would have been a lot of the defense side of our business.

    當然,航空航太、國防領域很重要,但它會是我們業務的許多國防方面。

  • Peter Skibitski - Analyst

    Peter Skibitski - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That was -- well, heading into my last question then.

    那是——好吧,接下來是我的最後一個問題。

  • We've got this continuing resolution ongoing, right, for DoD, which is your third quarter.

    我們已經為國防部製定了這項持續的決議,對吧,這是你們的第三季。

  • Have you seen sort of quarter-to-date as we sit here in November, any slowdown in defense bookings that we can maybe surmise results from the CR.

    當我們在 11 月坐在這裡時,您是否看到了季度至今的情況,我們可以推測 CR 的結果是國防預訂的任何放緩。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'm trying to think if we are seeing that.

    我正在思考我們是否看到了這一點。

  • Our defense bookings are, for the most part, the significant part of those are with OEMs.

    在很大程度上,我們的國防訂單中很大一部分是與原始設備製造商簽訂的。

  • So they're not with the Department of Defense.

    所以他們不屬於國防部。

  • So the bookings are firm contracts or purchase orders that are extended over often many years.

    因此,預訂是確定的合約或採購訂單,通常會延續多年。

  • And I think what's reflected in our backlog is it still 12 months.

    我認為我們的積壓工作還剩 12 個月。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So -- yes.

    所以——是的。

  • No, we're not seeing it.

    不,我們沒有看到它。

  • We're not feeling it.

    我們沒有感覺。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Thein, Raymond James.

    提姆泰恩,雷蒙詹姆斯。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Just the first one was on Rob's commentary there at the end.

    第一個是羅布最後的評論。

  • But in terms of the outlook for the third quarter, I thought I heard Rob, you say that you expected industrial to be flat with the second quarter.

    但就第三季的前景而言,我想我聽到羅布說,你預計工業將與第二季持平。

  • Was that -- did I hear that correct?

    我沒聽錯嗎?

  • Or

    或者

  • -- ?

    ——?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Yes, sequentially, it should look a lot like Q2, plus or minus.

    是的,按順序來看,它應該看起來很像第二季度,無論是正值還是負值。

  • That's

    那是

  • [what we're looking at right now].

    [我們現在正在看什麼]。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So all right.

    那麼好吧。

  • So that's than you're seeing if that were the case and not to hold you to the penny, but that's calling for year-over-year growth.

    所以這就是你所看到的情況,如果情況確實如此,不要讓你花一分錢,但這需要逐年增長。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And I guess I'm interested in maybe this ties back into the outperformance that you that I believe you saw in terms of -- we haven't seen or heard from every one of your industrial peers, but I suspect that down less than a point is probably better than what you'll see from others.

    我想我感興趣的是,也許這與您所看到的優異表現有關——我們還沒有看到或聽到您每一位工業同行的消息,但我懷疑下降幅度不到點可能比您從其他人那裡看到的更好。

  • And I'm just curious as you look to the third -- your fiscal third quarter, the commentary from the -- at least from the public in a bearing distributors, they're not calling for much by way of improvement.

    我只是很好奇,當你展望第三財季時,至少來自軸承經銷商公眾的評論,他們並沒有要求太多改進。

  • So I was just curious in terms of what you guys are seeing?

    所以我只是好奇你們看到了什麼?

  • Is this some of the benefits from Dodge paying off -- is it maybe you're gaining a higher share of wallet with the distributors?

    這是道奇帶來的一些好處嗎?

  • Maybe you can just give some color in terms of what's driving this outperformance on the industrial side.

    也許您可以就推動工業方面表現出色的原因給出一些解釋。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Outperformance relative to our peers?

    相對於我們的同儕表現如何?

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean, if you did, yes exactly.

    我的意思是,如果你這樣做了,是的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Because I don't think it's outperformance relative to our plan.

    因為我認為相對於我們的計劃來說,這並沒有表現出色。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's -- I mean I I'd have to know more about why our peers are falling behind than we're a little behind our plan.

    我的意思是,我必須更多地了解為什麼我們的同行落後,而不是我們稍微落後於我們的計劃。

  • So I didn't think it was out performance with the description of where we are.

    所以我不認為這是對我們所處位置的描述的表現。

  • But do you think that -- that fits us.

    但你認為這適合我們嗎?

  • I don't know what they're problem is.

    我不知道他們的問題是什麼。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • It wasn't a flattery.

    這不是阿諛奉承。

  • It was -- I mean, I just -- I don't think others are talking about industrial revenue is down a point or less.

    我的意思是,我只是——我不認為其他人在談論工業收入下降了一個點或更少。

  • That was all.

    僅此而已。

  • And I'm not asking to speak for your peers.

    我並不是要求代表你們的同行發言。

  • I'm just maybe just in terms of -- to the extent you are seeing improvement, and again, maybe it's lagging your expectations, but I suspect, is better than what you'll see from others.

    我只是可能只是在某種程度上——你看到了進步,再說一遍,也許它落後於你的期望,但我懷疑,比你從其他人那裡看到的要好。

  • So it was just if you had any commentary around what you've seen internally and where you're where your -- some of the initiatives you put forth and how those are progressing?

    那麼,您是否對您所看到的內部情況以及您提出的一些舉措以及這些舉措的進展情況有何評論?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I mean, there's -- -- I would say that (our) performance is showing an improvement year-over-year because last year, in these quarters, our first and second quarter, we had -- we were still fighting with the tail of supply chain problems.

    嗯,我的意思是,我想說(我們的)業績同比有所改善,因為去年,在這些季度,我們的第一和第二季度,我們仍然在與供應鏈的尾部問題。

  • And that second quarter was the end of that tail.

    第二節是尾巴的末端。

  • So -- which effectively made those quarters last year a little bit stronger than they should have been because of products that needed to be shipped, but couldn't be shipped because we didn't have all the parts we needed to finish various assemblies.

    因此,這實際上使去年這些季度的表現比應有的要強一些,因為產品需要發貨,但由於我們沒有完成各種組裝所需的所有零件而無法發貨。

  • So -- now, we're not -- we don't have that difficult quarter-to-quarter comp.

    所以——現在,我們沒有——我們沒有那麼困難的季度比較。

  • And so now it's more a pure operating performance relative to market demand.

    所以現在它更多的是相對於市場需求的純粹經營績效。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then just on the -- I think last quarter, you had commented that the full year margin improvement may be closer to 100 basis points on the gross margin side?

    然後,我想上個季度,您曾評論說,毛利率方面全年利潤率的改善可能接近 100 個基點?

  • Do you -- is that still the forecast today?

    今天的預測還是這樣嗎?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It is the forecast.

    這是預測。

  • Timothy Thein - Analyst

    Timothy Thein - Analyst

  • So Yes.

    所以是的。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And last one, and I'll move on.

    最後一篇,我會繼續。

  • Just you highlighted within A&D the Marine segment, I think you've been calling on that for some time.

    剛才您在 A&D 中強調了海軍陸戰隊部分,我想您已經呼籲這一點有一段時間了。

  • Any -- I don't know if it's for competitive reasons, maybe you're precluded from divulging it.

    任何——我不知道是否是出於競爭原因,也許你不能透露它。

  • But any context in terms of within that total company backlog, the size of even if it's just qualitatively, the size of that marine backlog as you sit here today?

    但是,就公司總積壓訂單而言,即使只是定性而言,您今天坐在這裡的海洋積壓訂單的規模有多大?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean it's a meaningful hard net backlog to the tune of a couple hundred million.

    我的意思是,這是一個有意義的硬淨積壓,高達數億。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ross Sparenblek, William Blair.

    羅斯·斯帕倫布萊克、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Maybe just starting with Dodge, thinking through kind of the longer-term growth outlook, the business has been stable.

    也許從道奇開始,考慮到長期成長前景,業務一直很穩定。

  • But it would be great to hear where you stand on the R&D strategy and how we should be thinking about the timing of getting that new product muscle working?

    但很高興聽到您對研發策略的立場以及我們應該如何考慮讓新產品發揮作用的時機?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Well, we have several new product initiatives moving through from R&D into production.

    嗯,我們有幾項新產品計畫正在從研發轉向生產。

  • And so there -- I think this year, some of the first will probably generate a few million dollars over the full year period.

    因此,我認為今年,首批項目中的一些可能會在全年產生數百萬美元的收入。

  • I mean, it's a normal start for a new product.

    我的意思是,這是新產品的正常開始。

  • So I would say that new products out of Dodge on an annualized basis next year $5 million to $10 million.

    因此,我想說道奇明年的新產品年化價值將達到 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So do you feel like you're getting buy-in from the workforce and this is really starting to potentially snowball in the next couple of years?

    那麼,您是否覺得自己得到了勞動力的支持,而這種情況在未來幾年內真的開始像滾雪球一樣滾雪球?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Well, I think it's if we have identified the market demand well enough, I think we have some pretty sharp people working at end of the equation.

    嗯,我認為如果我們足夠好地確定了市場需求,我認為我們有一些非常敏銳的人在等式的最後工作。

  • Yes, I think those should be meaningful contributors.

    是的,我認為那些應該是有意義的貢獻者。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • That's great to hear.

    很高興聽到這個消息。

  • And then maybe just thinking about Dodge's warehousing business.

    然後也許只是考慮道奇的倉儲業務。

  • It's been a tougher couple of years, but it has seen signs that greenfield activity is picking up.

    這幾年的情況比較艱難,但有跡象顯示綠地活動正在回升。

  • Anything just call on that performance and then maybe anything around project activity that you might be hearing from your customers?

    是否有任何關於績效的事情,然後也許是您可能從客戶那裡聽到的有關專案活動的任何事情?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think that side of the business showed some saw some positive effects here in this last quarter.

    我認為,在上個季度,業務方面的一些人看到了一些正面的影響。

  • So it's coming back slowly.

    所以慢慢的就回來了。

  • We're looking seriously at that market, and we're probably going to develop a new product line to address it. which will probably take a few years in the development but should allow us to be a more significant player.

    我們正在認真關注這個市場,並且可能會開發一條新的產品線來解決這個問題。這可能需要幾年的時間來開發,但應該能讓我們成為一個更重要的參與者。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I don't want you to give away any of your strategy there, but is it still conveyor oriented, I can ask?

    我不希望你洩露你的任何策略,但我可以問一下,它仍然是面向傳送帶的嗎?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • And then (inaudible) you want me to give away, Ross.

    然後(聽不清楚)你想讓我放棄,羅斯。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • On the 787 and 777 X ramp, phone is kind of breaking up, but thinking about the second half margin progression or aerospace, that was previously in the cards.

    在 787 和 777 X 的坡道上,手機有點分裂,但考慮到下半年的利潤增長或航空航天,這以前是有可能的。

  • Conversations may still be in the works with Boeing on that.

    與波音公司的對話可能仍在進行中。

  • Just any expectations there, maybe second half or even fiscal next year?

    有什麼期望嗎,也許是下半年甚至明年財年?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think next year, we should be beyond these troubles and into production and moving into that $38 per month ship build rate.

    好吧,我認為明年,我們應該會擺脫這些麻煩並投入生產,並進入每月 38 美元的造船速度。

  • That's our expectation.

    這是我們的期望。

  • And that's in terms of what we're rolling together for operating budgets that will sort of be the basis of our operating budget next year.

    這就是我們匯總的營運預算,這將成為我們明年營運預算的基礎。

  • Clearly, Boeing had published an objective of moving into the 50s before they had the problems that they had last year.

    顯然,波音公司在出現去年遇到的問題之前就已經宣布了進入 50 年代的目標。

  • They certainly need to do that.

    他們當然需要這麼做。

  • At one point, they had an objective of 60 ships per month.

    他們曾經一度設定每月生產 60 艘船的目標。

  • They really need to reboot that objective given their backlog and the need of their customers and the needs of their supply chain.

    考慮到積壓的訂單、客戶的需求以及供應鏈的需求,他們確實需要重新啟動這個目標。

  • I mean there's -- the supply chains are right, are in pretty tough shape.

    我的意思是——供應鏈是正確的,而且狀況相當艱難。

  • A lot of them are -- if you have a survey exactly the financial health of a lot of Boeing and Airbus' suppliers, it's not good.

    其中很多都是 - 如果你對許多波音和空中巴士供應商的財務狀況進行了準確的調查,結果並不好。

  • And we know that because we sell them product and we try to collect our receivables based upon what we sold them.

    我們知道這一點,因為我們向他們出售產品,我們嘗試根據我們向他們出售的產品收取應收帳款。

  • And so we know we know we have a tough time.

    所以我們知道我們經歷了一段艱難的時期。

  • Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

    Ross Sparenblek - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Anything to call out there, I guess, on maybe your willingness to look for incremental market share gains with Boeing, feels like diversification might be the better angle at this juncture?

    我想,您是否願意尋求與波音公司一起增加市場份額,感覺多元化可能是此時此刻更好的角度?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Can you say that again, Ross?

    你能再說一遍嗎,羅斯?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • I mean I know you guys want to maybe diversify away from building a bit, but if you saw low hanging fruit on potential market share opportunities I mean would you move in that direction?

    我的意思是,我知道你們可能希望在建設方面實現多元化,但如果你們看到了潛在市場份額機會上唾手可得的成果,我的意思是你們會朝這個方向發展嗎?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • There's a lot of low hanging fruit.

    有很多容易實現的目標。

  • I mean, Boeing is going to be survivor.

    我的意思是,波音將成為倖存者。

  • There's only two of these guys in the whole world right now that are practical producers.

    目前全世界只有兩個人是實際的製作人。

  • And we like both of them, and we have projects -- big projects in the breach with both companies.

    我們喜歡他們兩家公司,而且我們有一些專案——與兩家公司都有衝突的大型專案。

  • And some are reaching harvest, let’s put it that way.

    這麼說吧,有些正在收穫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

    羅恩愛潑斯坦,美國銀行。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • What are you seeing out there in sort of the M&A world?

    您對併購世界有何看法?

  • How are properties priced?

    房產如何定價?

  • Is there anything on the market?

    市場上有什麼東西嗎?

  • Does the stress that the Boeing stress has maybe caused some suppliers?

    波音的壓力是否給一些供應商造成了壓力?

  • Has that opened up some opportunities?

    這是否帶來了一些機會?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, we see things coming to market on the M&A world all the time, and we -- particularly in the A&D side of the business, and we try to understand whether or not we should participate in the auction.

    是的,我們一直看到併購領域的事物進入市場,特別是在業務的 A&D 方面,我們試圖了解是否應該參與拍賣。

  • And sometimes we do and sometimes we don't.

    有時我們會這樣做,有時我們不會。

  • What we're seeing is a hungry and competitive private equity interest in aerospace companies, if you complete that?

    我們看到的是航空航太公司的私募股權投資充滿渴望和競爭,如果你完成的話?

  • So the competitive nature of these businesses that are attractive to us has been difficult.

    因此,這些對我們有吸引力的業務的競爭性質一直很困難。

  • And some of these businesses come with big problems to solve.

    其中一些企業面臨著需要解決的大問題。

  • So whoever gets involved with any one of these acquisitions in many cases needs to have a big toolbox because a lot of tools to employ fix them.

    因此,在許多情況下,無論誰參與其中任何一項收購,都需要擁有一個大工具箱,因為有許多工具可以用來解決這些問題。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Yes, that makes sense.

    是的,這是有道理的。

  • And then maybe another question, maybe along sort of similar lines, but different I think it became very evident yesterday when Huntington Ingalls reported that they're having all kinds of issues.

    然後也許是另一個問題,也許是類似的問題,但不同的是,我認為昨天亨廷頓·英格爾斯報告說他們遇到了各種各樣的問題,這一點變得非常明顯。

  • Are there opportunities specifically for you guys in kind of the naval supply chain to help.

    在海軍供應鏈方面是否有專門為你們提供幫助的機會?

  • I mean it seems like that end market in particular is really struggling to execute and I don't know, for a company that's a good executor.

    我的意思是,對於優秀的執行者來說,終端市場似乎確實很難執行,我不知道。

  • Is there an opportunity there for you guys to do something pick up share, either organically or inorganically because of all the troubles that are happening in that naval supply chain.

    由於海軍供應鏈中發生的所有問題,你們有機會做一些有機或無機的事情來獲得份額嗎?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we certainly looked at it, Ron.

    嗯,我們確實看過了,羅恩。

  • And I'd say right now, our focus is on executing our current order book and trying to bring up our production rate, actually, we have to double our production rate as quickly as possible to meet the objectives that the navy has and the rest of the industry has for our product.

    我想說,現在我們的重點是執行當前的訂單並努力提高我們的生產力,實際上,我們必須盡快將我們的生產力提高一倍,以滿足海軍和其他目標的目標行業對我們產品的認可。

  • So we've been really busy doing that.

    所以我們一直在忙著做這件事。

  • We have talked to some of the -- some of the people that have complained that the industrial base isn't big enough or strong enough to support the build-out -- and we've offered to build the plant on the waterfront in Connecticut and barge things over to Graton and equip it with the appropriate machinery and so on and so forth.

    我們已經與一些人進行了交談——有些人抱怨工業基礎不夠大或不夠強大,無法支持擴建——我們提出在康涅狄格州的海濱建造工廠然後把東西駁到格拉頓並為其配備適當的機械等等。

  • And we could do it, but there wasn't a lot of interest expressed.

    我們可以做到,但沒有表現出太多興趣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    喬·里奇,高盛。

  • Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

    Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

  • This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. My first question is on the industrial end market.

    我是維韋克·斯里瓦斯塔瓦(Vivek Srivastava)為喬代言。我的第一個問題是關於工業終端市場的。

  • You talked about industrial sales next quarter compared to 2Q.

    您談到了下季工業銷售與第二季的比較。

  • This would imply about 3% to 4% organic growth.

    這意味著約 3% 至 4% 的有機成長。

  • So just trying to understand number one, what is driving that confidence?

    因此,我們只想了解第一,是什麼推動了這種信心?

  • And do you expect both original equipment and aftermarket to return to positive growth next quarter?

    您預計下季原始設備和售後市場都會恢復正成長嗎?

  • Daniel Bergeron - Director, Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Bergeron - Director, Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • So on the -- just to understand your question, kind of the end markets that we're seeing good activity on this mining, multi-industrial, food and beverage warehousing, both on the -- for all of them on the OEM side and the MRO side, and we're still seeing softness on some of the mining side of the business and on aggregate and those end markets.

    因此,為了理解您的問題,我們在採礦、多工業、食品和飲料倉儲方面看到了良好的終端市場活動,無論是在 OEM 方面還是在這些方面。方面以及整體市場和終端市場疲軟。

  • So it's a mixed bag now, oil and gas, we're expecting we should see that starting to come back maybe in our fourth quarter or first quarter, same with semiconductor, which is starting to show signs that we could see some positive movement in Q4, Q1.

    所以現在石油和天然氣是一個混合體,我們預計我們應該會看到它可能會在第四季度或第一季開始回升,半導體也是如此,它開始顯示出跡象表明我們可以看到一些積極的變化Q4 、Q1。

  • But it's just our average or different markets on the MRO side that are actually driving some of our growth.

    但真正推動我們成長的只是我們的平均或 MRO 方面的不同市場。

  • Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

    Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

  • Very helpful.

    非常有幫助。

  • Moving on to pricing.

    繼續定價。

  • Just trying to understand how much of your list pricing you put on in January and how you're thinking about that?

    只是想了解您一月份的標價有多少以及您對此有何看法?

  • And then you've talked about contracts in Aerospace and Defense.

    然後您談到了航空航天和國防領域的合約。

  • Any color on contracts coming up for renewal?

    即將續約的合約有顏色嗎?

  • And what's the view on pricing there?

    對那裡的定價有何看法?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I would say this is as it relates to aircraft and defense, a lot of the contracts that we have with various people, were signed in 2019, 2020.

    嗯,我想說這是因為它與飛機和國防有關,我們與不同的人簽訂的許多合約都是在 2019 年、2020 年簽署的。

  • And between 2020 and today, the producer price index is up 32%.

    2020 年至今,生產者物價指數上漲了 32%。

  • And so these new contracts that we're negotiating reflect that change.

    因此,我們正在談判的這些新合約反映了這種變化。

  • The old contracts that we have where the prices were set years ago don't have -- many of them don't have the adjustment needed in order to reflect the change in the PPI, but the new ones do, and new prices have been readjusted

    我們幾年前製定價格的舊合約沒有——其中許多沒有進行必要的調整來反映 PPI 的變化,但新合約有,而且新價格已經重新調整

  • Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

    Vivek Srivastava - Analyst

  • That's very helpful.

    這非常有幫助。

  • Just last question quickly on your backlog within Industrial.

    關於工業部門積壓的最後一個問題。

  • Any color on how your industrial backlog is trending maybe compared to 2019 levels?

    與 2019 年的水準相比,您的工業積壓趨勢有何變化?

  • And do you see like some risk of that backlog still normalizing?

    您認為積壓的風險是否仍在正常化?

  • Or you think backlog in Industrial is now more normalized?

    還是您認為工業積壓現在更正常化?

  • Daniel Bergeron - Director, Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Daniel Bergeron - Director, Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • The big takeaway I would tell you on the industrial backlog that's worth considering the 2019 was just that during the supply chain price is Dodge carried a much heavier backlog than they do today.

    我想告訴你的關於 2019 年值得考慮的工業積壓的重要結論是,在供應鏈價格中,道奇的積壓比今天要嚴重得多。

  • So Dodge has gone back to a much more normalized lower backlog.

    因此,道奇已恢復到更標準化的低積壓狀態。

  • It's really not an overly meaningful part of our backlog today, which really reflects their normal book and turn type of business, which you would expect.

    這實際上並不是我們今天積壓的一個非常有意義的部分,這確實反映了他們正常的帳本和周轉類型的業務,正如你所期望的那樣。

  • And that's also reflected on the classic RBC, so on the industrial side.

    這也反映在經典的加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)以及工業方面。

  • The market is a (technical difficulty) in our business in the quarter

    市場是我們本季業務的一個(技術困難)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Steve Barger,KeyBanc 資本市場。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • On the industrial side, the 4%-ish growth you expect for industrial in 3Q certainly seems positive.

    在工業方面,您預計第三季工業將成長 4% 左右,這顯然是積極的。

  • The comp in 4Q is similar.

    第四季的情況類似。

  • So is that a reasonable year-over-year run rate from here, meaning you think the inflection has happened in Industrial for your business and you're back to consistent growth?

    那麼,從現在開始,這是一個合理的同比運行率嗎?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • I just want to be clear.

    我只想說清楚。

  • So what I said was that sequentially, it could look a lot like Q2-plus or minus.

    所以我所說的是,按順序,它可能看起來很像第二季加或減。

  • So with the fewer days, that could mean down ever so slightly.

    因此,隨著天數的減少,這可能意味著略有下降。

  • So we didn't say 4% next quarter.

    所以我們沒有說下季 4%。

  • I just want to grow

    我只想成長

  • --. (multiple speakers)

    --. (多個發言者)

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • So I thought, -- do you know I mean dollars mean growth rate?

    所以我想,——你知道我的意思是美元意味著成長率嗎?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We do expect sequential growth, but we didn't say 4%.

    我們確實預計將環比成長,但我們沒有說 4%。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Sequential growth in growth rate, not dollars?

    成長率的連續成長,而不是美元?

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • In Industrial.

    在工業方面。

  • In industrial.

    在工業方面。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • I understand, but you're not saying sequential growth in dollars, you're saying sequential the growth rate gets better.

    我理解,但你並不是說美元連續成長,而是說成長率變得更好。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

    Robert Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President

  • Yes, exactly.

    是的,完全正確。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Just want to make sure everybody understood Okay.

    只是想確保每個人都理解好吧。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • What percentage of the portfolio do you classify as defense now across the two segments?

    您現在將這兩個細分市場歸類為防禦的投資組合的百分比是多少?

  • And what percentage of the portfolio, Mike, would you consider as exceptionally strong, maybe running 20%-plus?

    麥克,您認為投資組合中的百分比是異常強勁的,也許是 20% 以上?

  • --

    --

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So just within Aerospace and Defense segment, Defense is about 1/3 of the total in that segment.

    因此,僅在航空航太和國防領域,國防約佔該領域總數的 1/3。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • 1/3 in Aerospace, okay.

    1/3在航空航天,好吧。

  • But you have some defense and industrial as well.

    但你也有一些國防和工業。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No.

    不。

  • We -- we have it all in aerospace and development.

    我們——我們在航空航太和開發領域擁有一切。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And Mike, and for the second part of that question, you had talked about some of the lines of business being exceptionally strong right now.

    麥克,對於這個問題的第二部分,您談到了一些業務目前異常強勁。

  • What percentage of the overall portfolio would you consider exceptionally strong?

    您認為整體投資組合中的多少百分比特別強?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's RBC traditional, RBC industrial. -- The traditional RBCs A&D, which was -- used to be 60% of revenues before we acquired Dodge.

    這是 RBC 傳統型、RBC 工業型。 -- 在我們收購道奇之前,傳統的 RBC A&D 曾經佔收入的 60%。

  • So it's 30% of total revenues is exceptionally strong.

    所以它佔總收入的30%是異常強勁的。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • 30%.

    30%。

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's great.

    那太棒了。

  • And just one last one.

    還有最後一張。

  • I heard you say $4 million to $5 million related to the weather impact in the one plant, you were able to mitigate the strike impact of strong demand from other customers.

    我聽說您說一家工廠的 400 萬至 500 萬美元與天氣影響有關,您能夠減輕其他客戶強勁需求帶來的罷工影響。

  • What would revenue have been in 3Q ex-strike?

    罷工前第三季的收入是多少?

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • At what build rate?

    以什麼建造速度?

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • I guess, the build rate that was occurring prior to the strike.

    我猜想,是罷工前發生的建造速度。

  • Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

    Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

  • This is Rob Moffatt.

    這是羅布·莫法特。

  • I don't think we're going to get into hypotheticals on the third quarter, especially since it's forward-looking.

    我認為我們不會對第三季進行假設,特別是因為它具有前瞻性。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Well, I was actually looking for 2Q, what it would have been because you only lost a couple of weeks of production in 2Q?

    好吧,我實際上在尋找第二季度,它會是什麼,因為你在第二季度只損失了幾週的生產?

  • --

    --

  • Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

    Robert Moffatt - Director of Investor Relations

  • But you had two impacts on the Boeing side, right?

    但你對波音方面有兩個影響,對嗎?

  • You had the original impact from the January door plug blowout.

    一月份的門塞井噴事件為你帶來了最初的影響。

  • Then you had the strike itself, then you entertain.

    然後你就罷工了,然後你就娛樂了。

  • There's just too many variables to really narrow that down and or high level of content.

    變數太多,無法真正縮小範圍和/或高水準的內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And we have now reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

    現在我們的問答環節已經結束了。

  • And I will now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett for closing remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉給哈特尼特博士做總結發言。

  • Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hartnett - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Well, thank you, and this concludes our conference call for the second quarter.

    好的,謝謝大家,我們第二季的電話會議到此結束。

  • Appreciate everybody's participation and all the good questions and look forward to talking to you again in early February.

    感謝大家的參與和所有好的問題,並期待在二月初再次與您交談。

  • Good day.

    再會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And all parties, may now disconnect.

    所有各方現在都可以斷開連接。

  • Have a good day.

    祝你有美好的一天。