RBC Bearings Inc (RBC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call.

早安，感謝您參加 RBC Bearings 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。

I'm Rob Moffatt, Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations.

我是企業發展和投資者關係總監 Rob Moffatt。

And with me on today's call are Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Dan Bergeron, Director, Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長麥可‧哈特內特博士； Dan Bergeron，董事、副總裁兼營運長；以及副總裁兼財務長 Rob Sullivan。

As a reminder, some of the statements made today may be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

提醒一下，今天發表的一些聲明可能是前瞻性的，並且是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》做出的。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors.

由於各種因素，實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。

We refer you to RBC Bearings recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition.

我們請您參閱 RBC Bearings 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以便更詳細地討論可能影響公司未來營運績效和財務狀況的風險。

These factors are also listed in the press release along with a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information.

這些因素也在新聞稿中列出，同時也列出了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務資訊的對帳。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給哈特內特醫生。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning.

謝謝你，羅布，早安。

I'm going to start today's call with a quick review of our financial results, and I'll finish with some high-level thoughts on the industry and the outlook for the remainder of fiscal '25, and I'll hand it over to Rob Sullivan for some more detail on the numbers.

我將在今天的電話會議上快速回顧一下我們的財務結果，最後我會對行業和 25 財年剩餘時間的前景發表一些高層看法，然後我會將電話會議交給 Rob Sullivan 來提供有關數字的更多詳細信息。

Third quarter net sales came in at $394 million, a 5.5% increase over last year, driven by continued strong performance in our Aerospace and Defense segment.

第三季淨銷售額為 3.94 億美元，較去年同期成長 5.5%，這得益於航空航太和國防部門持續強勁的表現。

Total Aerospace and Defense sales were up 10.7% year-over-year with a 14.6% growth on the commercial Aerospace side and a 3% growth in Defense.

航空航太和國防總銷售額年增 10.7%，其中商用航空航太成長 14.6%，國防成長 3%。

On the industrial side, the segment grew 2.7% year-over-year with distribution and aftermarket up 8% and OEM down 8.2%.

工業方面，該部門同比增長 2.7%，其中分銷和售後市場增長 8%，而 OEM 下降 8.2%。

Altogether, it was a solid quarter.

總體而言，這是一個強勁的季度。

So I'm going to talk about some underlying trends.

所以我將談論一些潛在的趨勢。

In Aerospace and Defense, we did a good job mitigating the impact from the strikes of Boeing and Textron during the quarter.

在航空航太和國防領域，我們本季很好地減輕了波音和德事隆罷工的影響。

Quarter-by-quarter cadence across Commercial Aerospace has been lumpy through our fiscal 2025, and I'm sure that's no surprise to anyone on this call.

在整個 2025 財年中，商用航空航太業的季度成長節奏一直不穩定，我相信這對參加本次電話會議的任何人來說都不足為奇。

I would encourage you to focus on the total segment trend, which is 10.7% growth for the quarter and a 15.5% growth year-to-date and these are solid performance numbers.

我鼓勵你關注整個細分市場的趨勢，本季成長了 10.7%，年初至今成長了 15.5%，這些都是穩健的業績數字。

Growth in the case of Defense was limited by capacity and not demand.

國防方面的成長受到產能而非需求的限制。

In fact, demand is extraordinary.

事實上，需求非常大。

Adding capacity -- we are adding capacity as we speak, and adding capacity means hiring and training staff, expanding supply chain, and we are currently building plants.

增加產能－我們正在增加產能，增加產能意味著僱用和培訓員工、擴大供應鏈，目前我們正在建造工廠。

I want to take a second to commend the teams managing our customers, plants, people and production schedules.

我想花點時間來讚揚管理我們的客戶、工廠、人員和生產計劃的團隊。

There's a lot of work put into rebalancing our production cadence in order to smooth some of the customer volatility over the past 2 quarters, maintaining level operating loads in our plant that is being balancing load against cost is a critical part of RBC's performance and continues to be a key contributor to our long-term gross margin expansion.

為了平滑過去兩個季度的客戶波動，我們投入了大量工作來重新平衡生產節奏，維持工廠的水平營運負荷，平衡負荷與成本，這是 RBC 業績的關鍵部分，並繼續成為我們長期毛利率擴張的關鍵貢獻者。

On the industrial side, we were excited to see the segment return to growth, while our OEM business was down for the period, the bulk of the contraction came from the oil and gas category.

在工業方面，我們很高興看到該部門恢復成長，雖然我們的 OEM 業務在此期間下滑，但大部分收縮來自石油和天然氣類別。

Additionally, there were headwinds we're also seeing but to a lesser extent, in the construction and semiconductor machinery manufacturing.

此外，我們也看到建築和半導體機械製造領域也存在阻力，但程度較輕。

We saw encouraging signs in the aftermarket of aggregate and cement, mining and metals, food and beverage and grain.

我們在骨材和水泥、採礦和金屬、食品和飲料以及穀物的售後市場看到了令人鼓舞的跡象。

Several markets were up well into the double digits, yielding a net gain of 8% over the period.

多個市場均出現兩位數漲幅，期內淨收益達 8%。

Evidence of how even a modest U.S.A., GDP expansion and be very impactful to this sector.

有證據表明，即使美國 GDP 規模小幅擴張，也會對這一行業產生很大影響。

Excluding the oil and gas influence, our industrial sector expanded at a 4.4% rate.

除去石油和天然氣的影響，我們的工業部門成長了 4.4%。

Overall, the continued tailwinds of industry-leading service levels, organic growth, synergies and favorable end market mix came together to put us well into the green on revenues, margins, cash flow for the quarter, which was a quarter that's the most challenging of the four to navigate.

總體而言，在行業領先的服務水平、有機增長、協同效應和有利的終端市場組合等因素的持續推動下，我們本季度的收入、利潤率和現金流均實現了盈利，而本季度是四個季度中最具挑戰性的一個季度。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at $175 million or 44.3% of sales, a 205 basis point increase year-over-year.

本季毛利率為 1.75 億美元，佔銷售額的 44.3%，較去年同期成長 205 個基點。

The biggest drivers of our margin expansion continue to be increased absorption of our Aerospace and Defense capacity, ongoing synergies with Dodge in a wide range of smaller continuous improvement projects on a plant-by-plant basis.

我們利潤率擴大的最大驅動力仍然是我們航空航太和國防產能的吸收增加，以及與道奇在各個工廠的各種小型持續改進項目中持續發揮協同作用。

We continue to identify through our RBC Ops Management process.

我們繼續透過 RBC Ops 管理流程進行識別。

Adjusted net income of $73 million was up 34.7% year-over-year, and that translated to an adjusted EPS of $2.34 per share compared to last year's $1.85 for a growth of 26.5%.

調整後淨收入為 7,300 萬美元，年增 34.7%，調整後每股收益為 2.34 美元，去年同期為 1.85 美元，成長 26.5%。

Cash from operations came in at $84 million and compares to $80 million last year, and free cash flow of $74 million was up nicely versus the $71 million last year.

營運現金流為 8,400 萬美元，而去年為 8,000 萬美元；自由現金流為 7,400 萬美元，較去年的 7,100 萬美元有較大成長。

We used our cash to continue to deleverage the balance sheet with an impressive $100 million of debt reduction in the quarter taking our trailing net leverage to 1.8x.

我們利用現金繼續降低資產負債表中的槓桿率，本季債務減少了 1 億美元，使我們的淨槓桿率降至 1.8 倍。

As many as you know, RBC is a cash flow-rich business.

眾所周知，RBC 是一家現金流充裕的企業。

Since we acquired Dodge, we committed nearly all of our cash generation to deleveraging the balance sheet.

自從我們收購道奇以來，我們幾乎將所有的現金都用於降低資產負債表中的槓桿率。

The 2.0 mark debt divided by EBITDA was an important milestone, and I'm excited to -- excited we were able to achieve it in just 3 years.

2.0 債務除以 EBITDA 是一個重要的里程碑，我很高興——很高興我們能夠在短短 3 年內實現這一目標。

Also, with our preferred dividend now go on, we are excited to recapture $23 million in annual expense back into our cash flow and further accelerate additional debt repayment going forward.

此外，隨著我們優先股股息的持續發放，我們很高興能夠將每年 2,300 萬美元的支出重新納入我們的現金流中，並進一步加快未來的額外債務償還速度。

In terms of our outlook, our A&D business remains on a path towards mid-teens growth for the full year.

就我們的前景而言，我們的 A&D 業務全年仍將保持中等程度的成長。

The Industrial business should finish the year roughly flat with a heavy -- healthy second half exit to the year.

工業業務今年底應會基本持平，下半年將以強勁、健康的勢頭結束。

With the new calendar year, the election behind us, many of you asked for my thoughts on the new administration and what it might mean for RBC.

隨著新的一年的到來和選舉的結束，許多人詢問我對新政府的看法以及它對 RBC 的意義。

I've done a little bit of thinking on the topic and this is where I come out.

我對這個主題進行了一些思考，這就是我的結論。

In terms of our end markets, I don't think it changes much for commercial aerospace.

就我們的終端市場而言，我認為商業航空航太業不會發生太大變化。

The drivers here have been supply chain challenges and the broader issues at Boeing.

這裡的驅動因素是供應鏈挑戰和波音公司的更廣泛的問題。

But from what I can see, there appears to be a nice progress in addressing some of these issues and I'm optimistic that it continues.

但從我所看到的情況來看，在解決其中一些問題上似乎取得了良好進展，而且我對這種進展持續下去持樂觀態度。

If that happens, we should stand to benefit from some wonderful comps in the commercial aerospace business as we progress through calendar 2025, our fiscal 2026.

如果發生這種情況，那麼隨著我們進入 2025 年和 2026 財年，我們應該會從商業航空航太業務的一些出色表現中受益。

We continue to expect strong secular growth beyond '25, fueled by record bookings, backlogs at Boeing and Airbus, who together have 12 years of demand sitting on their order books and build rates that need to move higher.

我們繼續預計，在創紀錄的訂單量和波音和空中巴士的積壓訂單的推動下，25年後將出現強勁的長期成長，這兩家公司的訂單量加起來有12年的需求，而且建造率需要提高。

On the Defense side, with the current geopolitical backdrop and with the Republicans in charge of the House, Senate and Executive branch, it seems likely that the U.S. Defense spending will accelerate over the next 4 years.

在國防方面，鑑於當前的地緣政治背景以及共和黨控制眾議院、參議院和行政部門，美國國防開支在未來四年內可能會加速成長。

And in terms of International Defense spending, EU members are increasingly investing 2% of GDP level and are now debating if it needs to be 3% with Trump arguing that it should be 5%.

在國際國防開支方面，歐盟成員國正越來越多地將國防支出提高到GDP的2%，目前正在爭論是否需要達到3%，而川普則認為應該是5%。

I can't tell you exactly where things are going to shake out, but I suspect there's a good odds that it will eventually be higher than it's been in the -- at any time in post-Cold War history.

我無法確切地告訴你事情將會如何發展，但我認為，它最終將比冷戰後歷史上的任何時候都要高。

In the Industrial business, we continue to hear from customers and distributor partners the following.

在工業業務方面，我們不斷聽到客戶和經銷商合作夥伴反映以下情況。

Since the election, there has been a risk step-up in quoting for new projects.

自大選以來，新項目報價的風險一直在上升。

Clearly, there's no mistake we are moving into a drill baby drill period where renewable energy sources are out of favor worldwide.

顯然，我們正在進入一個“鑽探階段”，可再生能源在世界範圍內不再受歡迎，這是毫無疑問的。

Array for common sense, where has it been?

常識陣列，它去哪了？

Confidence seems to have returned and a future lowering of interest rates appears to be inevitable.

信心似乎已經恢復，未來降低利率似乎是不可避免的。

Our third quarter is a good indicator of the impact of GDP growth on our industrial aftermarket.

我們的第三季很好地體現了GDP成長對工業售後市場的影響。

Tariffs certainly add both spice and fuel to our business outlook, all of which are strongly a net good for RBC.

關稅無疑為我們的業務前景增添了樂趣和動力，這對 RBC 來說都是一件好事。

The last area worth touching on is M&A.

最後一個值得談及的領域是併購。

With our net leverage down to 1.8x, we are well prepared for the next opportunity and remain busy assessing candidates.

隨著我們的淨槓桿率降至 1.8 倍，我們已經為下一次機會做好了充分的準備，並繼續忙於評估候選人。

With just one more quarter left in fiscal -- in our fiscal 2025, our attention is beginning to focus on next year.

現在距離 2025 財年只剩一個季度，我們的注意力開始集中在明年。

If the current trend holds, it's likely that fiscal 2026 could offer an environment where all three of our end markets are growing in units.

如果目前的趨勢持續下去，那麼 2026 財年很可能會為我們所有三個終端市場提供一個單位成長的環境。

It's too early to provide a concrete outlook, but that is the backdrop by which we are putting budgets together for fiscal 2026.

現在提供具體的展望還為時過早，但這是我們制定 2026 財政年度預算的背景。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Rob Sullivan for more details on the financial performance.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給羅布·沙利文 (Rob Sullivan)，以了解有關財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

As Dr. Hartnett indicated, this was another strong quarter for RBC.

正如 Hartnett 博士所指出的，這對 RBC 來說又是一個強勁的季度。

Net sales growth of 5.5% drove gross margin growth of 10.6% with more than 200 basis points of percentage expansion.

淨銷售額成長 5.5%，帶動毛利率成長 10.6%，百分比增幅超過 200 個基點。

The quarter benefited from some favorable product mix and strong manufacturing performance on the industrial side.

本季受益於一些有利的產品組合和工業方面的強勁製造表現。

Those factors were in addition to the more structural drivers of our gross margin performance, including ongoing synergies and increased utilization of our Aerospace and Defense manufacturing assets.

這些因素是我們毛利率表現的更多結構性驅動因素的補充，包括持續的協同效應和航空航太與國防製造資產的利用率提高。

On the SG&A line, we continued our investments in future growth.

在銷售、一般及行政開支方面，我們持續對未來成長進行投資。

This includes a combination of investing in personnel costs and back-office support, including IT licenses and infrastructure.

這包括對人員成本和後台支援（包括 IT 許可證和基礎設施）的投資。

This resulted in adjusted EBITDA of $122.6 million, up 12% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%, which was up 180 basis points year-over-year.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.226 億美元，較去年同期成長 12%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.1%，較去年同期成長 180 個基點。

Interest expense in the quarter was $14.2 million.

本季利息支出為 1,420 萬美元。

This was down 26.4% year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing repayment of our term loan as well as a lower rate on the loan as the SOFR base rate has moved lower.

與去年同期相比下降了 26.4%，反映了我們定期貸款的持續償還以及由於 SOFR 基準利率下降導致的貸款利率下降。

The tax rate in our adjusted EPS calculation was 22.2%, reasonably consistent versus last year's 21.3%.

我們調整後的每股盈餘計算中的稅率為 22.2%，與去年的 21.3% 相比基本一致。

Altogether, this led to an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.34, representing growth of 26.5% year-over-year, an impressive result given some of the choppiness in commercial aerospace customer production schedules and the macroeconomic softness in the industrial economy.

總體而言，這導致調整後的攤薄每股收益達到 2.34 美元，同比增長 26.5%，考慮到商業航空客戶生產計劃的一些波動和工業經濟的宏觀經濟疲軟，這是一個令人印象深刻的結果。

Free cash flow in the quarter came in at $73.6 million, with conversion of 127% and compares to $70.9 million and 152% last year.

本季自由現金流為 7,360 萬美元，轉換率為 127%，而去年同期為 7,090 萬美元，轉換率為 152%。

As usual, we used a meaningful portion of the cash generated to continue to deleverage the balance sheet.

像往常一樣，我們使用了所產生的現金中相當一部分來繼續降低資產負債表的槓桿率。

We repaid $100 million of debt during the quarter, taking our total year-to-date debt reduction on the facilities to $195.4 million.

我們在本季償還了 1 億美元的債務，使今年迄今為止我們設施的債務總額減少至 1.954 億美元。

And in terms of our free cash flow generation going forward, the October 15 automatic conversion of our mandatory convertible preferred stock removed the cash dividend payment, reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23 million on an annualized basis.

就我們未來的自由現金流產生而言，10 月 15 日我們強制性可轉換優先股的自動轉換取消了現金股息支付，從而按年率計算減少了我們未來的總現金支出約 2,300 萬美元。

This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal '24's total free cash flow.

這約佔24財年總自由現金流的9.5%。

With our trailing net leverage now at 1.8x and heading even lower going forward, our balance sheet is in an increasingly attractive position to pursue additional accretive M&A, and our team remains busy growing our funnel of potential deal flow.

我們的淨槓桿率目前為 1.8 倍，並且未來還會進一步降低，我們的資產負債表處於越來越有吸引力的地位，可以進行額外的增值併購，而我們的團隊仍然忙於擴大潛在交易管道。

Looking into the fourth quarter, we are guiding to revenues of $434 million to $444 million, representing year-over-year growth of 4.9% to 7.3%.

展望第四季度，我們預計營收為 4.34 億美元至 4.44 億美元，年增 4.9% 至 7.3%。

That guidance embeds an operating environment that's fairly similar to the fiscal third quarter.

該指引涵蓋的營運環境與第三財季十分相似。

On the gross margin side, we are projecting gross margins of 44% to 44.5%, which would be an increase of roughly 115 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint.

在毛利率方面，我們預期毛利率為 44% 至 44.5%，中間值較上年同期增加約 115 個基點。

And for SG&A, we expect SG&A as a percentage of sales to be between 16% and 16.5% range during the fourth quarter.

對於銷售、一般及行政費用，我們預計第四季度銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比將在 16% 至 16.5% 之間。

In closing, this was another strong quarter for RBC.

總而言之，這對 RBC 來說又是一個強勁的季度。

We remain focused on leveraging our core strengths in engineering, manufacturing and product development to drive both organic and inorganic growth, continued margin excellence and high levels of free cash flow conversion.

我們將繼續專注於利用我們在工程、製造和產品開發方面的核心優勢來推動有機和無機成長、持續的利潤率和高水準的自由現金流轉換。

With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

那麼，請接線生開啟問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, now be conducting a question and answer session.

好的，現在進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Peter Skibitski with Alembic Global.

Alembic Global 的 Peter Skibitski。

Hey, good morning guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Nice performance.

很棒的表演。

Mike, I'll echo you that it was good to see industrial return to growth.

麥克，我同意你的觀點，看到工業恢復成長是件好事。

Can you talk more about oil and gas, kind of what you saw in the quarter that was -- was it lack of spending because of the election?

您能否詳細談談石油和天然氣方面的情況？

And then when you talk about increased quote activity at industrial, does that include oil and gas?

那麼，當您談到工業報價活動增加時，這是否包括石油和天然氣？

Yes.

是的。

Well, on the oil and gas side of things, that's a boom, robust industry.

嗯，就石油和天然氣方面而言，這是一個繁榮、強勁的行業。

And when it's booming, they want materials faster than you can make materials.

當經濟蓬勃發展時，他們對原材料的需求比你生產原材料的速度更快。

And they ultimately over order their materials because the trees never stopped growing.

由於樹木從未停止生長，他們最終過度訂購材料。

And so the trees stopped growing and they had too many materials.

因此樹木停止生長，而且材料太多了。

So it's really an inventory correction.

因此這實際上是一種庫存調整。

And we're studying it.

我們正在研究它。

And it's -- it will blend down over the next 9 months and sort of get back to a more normal level.

而且它會在接下來的 9 個月內逐漸減弱並恢復到更正常的水平。

But basically, we had a few customers who over ordered.

但基本上，我們有幾個顧客訂購過多。

Got it.

知道了。

Just to give you a little more color on that.

只是為了給你更多有關這一點的信息。

This is Rob Moffatt.

這是 Rob Moffatt。

Ex the oil and gas headwind that OEM business would have been down about 2%, 2.5%.

除石油和天然氣逆風外，OEM業務將下降約2％至2.5％。

So it's a big chunk of that delta in the industrial OEM.

因此，這佔了工業 OEM 增量的很大一部分。

Got you.

明白了。

That's helpful, guys.

夥計們，這很有幫助。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

And then just -- everybody is going to be worried going to the weekend about this tariff issue.

然後——週末每個人都會擔心這個關稅問題。

Mike, you don't sound too worried.

麥克，聽起來你不太擔心。

Can you give us more color in terms of what allows you to retain confidence that, that won't be a major roadblock for you?

您能否向我們詳細說明是什麼讓您有信心這不會成為您的重大障礙？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Well, I mean, there's -- it's Mexico and China really, right?

嗯，我的意思是，實際上是墨西哥和中國，對吧？

I mean that's -- those are the two issues.

我的意思是——這是兩個問題。

First of all, our Mexico plants, we have three plants in Mexico.

首先，我們的墨西哥工廠，我們在墨西哥有三家工廠。

The materials are shipping from the U.S., the value added is minimal and then they're shipped back out.

這些材料從美國運出，附加價值很小，然後又運回來。

So any tariff that's applied to Mexico will be easily absorbed and it's just not -- it's not that big a number.

因此，對墨西哥徵收的任何關稅都將很容易被吸收，而且這個數字並不是很大。

Easily be absorbed in our cost structure and then pass along in our prices.

很容易被我們的成本結構吸收，然後轉嫁到我們的價格上。

Just -- it's a nonissue.

只是——這不是什麼問題。

So the other -- the other part of Mexico is our commercial contracts where we actually sell product out of Mexico directly to customers.

因此，墨西哥的另一部分是我們的商業合同，我們實際上是將產品從墨西哥直接銷售給客戶。

Our contracts have triggers in them which anticipate or -- anticipate some government action that's unforeseen.

我們的合約中有一些觸發因素，可以預測或預見一些無法預見的政府行動。

And it allows us to negotiate -- renegotiate our contracts.

它還使我們能夠談判——重新談判我們的合約。

And how did we learn that?

我們是如何得知這一點的？

Well, we learned that during the pandemic when they showed up at the plant with guns drawn and shut down our plants.

嗯，我們了解到，在疫情期間，他們拿著槍出現在工廠並關閉了我們的工廠。

So we decided it would be nice to have a pause in these contracts going forward to say there's anything crazy like that, that happens between the governments that there's a way to mitigate our business model.

因此，我們決定，最好暫停這些合同，以便表明政府之間不會出現類似瘋狂的事情，有辦法緩解我們的商業模式。

So yes, that's kind of baked into our contracts.

是的，這已經寫入我們的合約中了。

And also, for the most part, our contracts for commercial items are FOB plant.

而且，大多數情況下，我們的商業貨物合約都是工廠離岸價。

And I'm sure we have belts and suspenders on this thing as far as that's concerned.

我相信就這一點而言，我們已經採取了相應的措施。

China is another issue.

中國是另一個問題。

And if Trump does his 10% tariff on China, I will be incredibly disappointed.

如果川普真的對中國徵收 10% 的關稅，我會非常失望。

I mean all the huffing and puffing he did and he's going to do 10%.

我的意思是，他已經竭盡全力了，但他只做到了 10%。

First of all, 10%, we won't even feel it in our numbers.

首先，10%，我們甚至不會從數字上感受到。

It's just -- it will be insignificant.

這只是——無關緊要的。

If he does 50%, and he puts the same program in place he's putting in place for the steel industry, for the bearing industry.

如果他把這一比例提高 50%，而他實施的計劃與他對鋼鐵業、軸承業實施的計劃相同。

What do you think is going to happen to bearings?

您認為軸承將會發生什麼變化？

Probably shortfall, right?

可能不夠吧？

Shortfall, what happens, supply and demand, how about that equation?

短缺，會發生什麼，供給與需求，這個等式如何？

How does that balance out?

如何實現平衡？

So it's going to follow the same path as the steel industry if there's a very strong tariff.

因此，如果徵收非常高的關稅，它將走上與鋼鐵業相同的道路。

I'm praying for a strong tariff.

我祈禱徵收高額關稅。

Got it, got it.

知道了，知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

I appreciate the whole context.

我很欣賞整個背景。

And I think one other thing, there's -- RBC is a made in the U.S.A. company for the most part.

我認為還有一件事，RBC 大部分都是美國製造的公司。

We make our products here.

我們在這裡生產我們的產品。

I mean there's some augmentation by other -- by foreign sources, but not a lot and nothing that we can't recover with our own plants.

我的意思是，其他的——透過外國來源——也有一定的增加，但不是很多，也沒有什麼是我們無法用自己的工廠恢復的。

So we make it here.

因此我們就來到這裡。

And for the most part, more or less, we sell 90% of our sales are here.

在大多數情況下，我們大約 90% 的銷售額都來自這裡。

That's a big distinction between us and what other people consider as our peers.

這就是我們與其他人認為的同齡人之間的巨大差異。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

I'll end on a Defense note and maybe a less controversial one.

最後，我將以一個可能不那麼有爭議的辯護詞來結束我的演講。

You talked about the need to increase submarine capacity.

您談到了增加潛水艇容量的必要性。

I think you hinted that you need to increase munitions capacity as well.

我想你暗示了你也需要增加彈藥容量。

I'm just wondering if you can update us on the CapEx impact and the schedules for your capacity expansion in Defense.

我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下資本支出的影響以及國防產能擴張的時間表。

Yes.

是的。

Well, you won't -- the CapEx won't be extraordinary.

嗯，你不會——資本支出不會特別高。

We -- as far as the submarine business is concerned, we're -- yes, we're building out a 100,000-plus plant in Tucson.

就潛水艇業務而言，是的，我們正在圖森建造一座產能超過 10 萬噸的工廠。

It's a leased building.

這是一棟租賃的建築。

So there's no brick-and-mortar there.

所以那裡沒有實體店。

And we'll move machinery from one of the Tucson plants into this third plant over the course of the year and allow more manufacturing capacity inside the base Tucson plant for the submarine business.

我們將在今年內將機器從圖森的一家工廠轉移到第三家工廠，並為圖森基地工廠提供更多的潛艦業務製造能力。

So that's ongoing.

這仍在進行中。

The capital impact is well within our normal capital budget.

資本影響完全在我們的正常資本預算之內。

Okay.

好的。

And that sounds like not something that would take a long time, I guess, is the first point.

這聽起來不像是一件需要花很長時間的事情，我想，這是第一點。

And the second point is, I guess, the free cash flow drop-down should be pretty strong, I would think.

第二點是，我認為自由現金流的下降應該相當強勁。

Yes.

是的。

It's going to be same as it's been.

一切將會和以前一樣。

Steve Barger, Keyban capital markets.

史蒂夫‧巴格 (Steve Barger)，Keyban 資本市場。

Mike, I know it's early to talk about fiscal '26, but you did mention how comps and conditions should allow for strong growth in Aerospace.

麥克，我知道現在談論 26 財年還為時過早，但您確實提到了同行和條件如何促進航空航天業的強勁增長。

Just based on what you know now about demand and your capacity, are you thinking mid-teen growth against the mid-teens comp?

僅根據您現在對需求和產能的了解，您是否認為中段成長率與中段成長率之間存在矛盾？

Or does the growth rate actually accelerate?

或者成長率實際上確實加快了？

I guess just trying to figure out how good you think this could be?

我猜只是想弄清楚您認為這有多好？

Now we're talking about Commercial Aerospace, right?

現在我們談論的是商業航空航天，對嗎？

I guess the segment of aerospace.

我猜是航空航太領域。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, it's going to be very good.

好的，一切都會非常好。

It's -- let's put it this way.

就—讓我們這樣說吧。

We're at 15%.

我們達到了 15%。

Boeing really hasn't been building airplanes.

波音公司其實並未製造飛機。

You have a layer that if nothing else changes, it just accelerates the growth rate.

你有一層，如果沒有其他變化，它只會加速成長率。

Yes.

是的。

If nothing else changes, it just accelerates.

如果沒有其他變化，它只會加速。

And we got a lot of content on those plans.

我們獲得了大量有關這些計劃的內容。

So yes, it's 15% for Commercial Aerospace should be a -- I don't want to say it's a floor because I think the floor should be higher.

所以是的，商業航空航太的 15% 應該是——我不想說這是一個底線，因為我認為底線應該更高。

I mean it's going to be

我的意思是

--

--

And presumably, and I'm not trying to nail you down to anything, but just based on the conditions, the 12-year backlog that you talked about, like this shouldn't end anytime soon.

而且大概，我並不是想把你逼到絕境，但僅根據目前的情況來看，你提到的 12 年積壓問題應該不會很快結束。

You should have -- not to put words in your mouth, but like you must have as good a visibility right now into Aerospace as you've had in a long time?

您應該－不是強加於您，而是您現在對航空航太業的了解一定與您長期以來一樣深入吧？

Yes.

是的。

I mean our visibility in the Aerospace is the same as everybody else's.

我的意思是我們在航空航天領域的知名度與其他人一樣。

We look at Boeing skyline and we say a little (technical difficulty) to hope that they make it and that all happens for us.

我們看著波音的天際線，我們說了一點（技術困難），希望他們能夠成功，一切都為我們而發生。

That's where the risk is.

風險就在這裡。

I mean our -- we have contracts in place with Boeing through 2030 for all of our stuff.

我的意思是，我們與波音公司簽訂了到 2030 年的所有產品的合約。

So all they have to do is make a plane and we'll send them the components they need.

所以他們要做的就是製造一架飛機，然後我們就會向他們發送他們需要的零件。

So it's really in their

所以這真的是他們的

--

--

Understood.

明白了。

And similar question for industrial.

工業領域也存在類似的問題。

If I heard you right, you said 4% growth ex oil and gas this quarter.

如果我沒聽錯，您說的是本季除石油和天然氣外的成長率為 4%。

If we assume oil and gas gets back to growth, does this feel like we're heading back to a mid-single-digit kind of growth environment for industrial just as you think about the sentiment, the quoting activity that you've talked about, how you think the administration is going to proceed?

如果我們假設石油和天然氣恢復成長，這是否意味著我們正回到工業的中等個位數成長環境，正如您考慮情緒、您談到的報價活動一樣，您認為政府將如何進行？

Yes, I would say that's right.

是的，我認為是對的。

I think oil and gas from what we know about inventories and absorption rates is going to take a little bit longer.

我認為，從我們所了解的庫存和吸收率來看，石油和天然氣的供應還需要更長的時間。

It will phase in at the end of the year.

該措施將於今年底分階段實施。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Caroli, True Securities.

邁克爾·卡羅利（Michael Caroli），True Securities。

Nice results.

效果不錯。

And Mike, just to maybe stay on -- stay on that line.

麥克，也許只是繼續 — — 繼續那條線。

I guess, first, with oil and gas, I mean, you mentioned the drill baby driller.

我想，首先，關於石油和天然氣，我的意思是，你提到了鑽井嬰兒鑽井機。

Are you kind of seeing any tangible evidence of more planned spending?

您是否看到了更多計劃支出的實際證據？

I mean if we do see a pretty steep reduction in oil prices, I mean -- or energy prices, these companies usually aren't incentivized to spend.

我的意思是，如果我們確實看到油價或能源價格大幅下降，這些公司通常沒有動力去消費。

They want to continue to deploy capital to shareholders.

他們希望繼續向股東部署資本。

So you really think you see large-scale projects pick up in that kind of environment?

所以您真的認為在那種環境下大型專案將會蓬勃發展嗎？

Well, hard to say.

嗯，很難說。

I mean, you've got two forces in balance there, right?

我的意思是，那裡有兩股力量處於平衡狀態，對嗎？

Consumption and supply.

消費和供應。

And there always seems to be a problem with supply, whether it's a war or it's an embargo or it's something else, there always seems to be an interruption that's unpredictable that changes the game for a year or 2.

而且供應似乎總是存在問題，無論是戰爭、禁運或其他原因，似乎總是存在不可預測的中斷，從而改變一兩年內的局勢。

So I think it needs something like that to accelerate it, but I wouldn't rule something like that out.

所以我認為需要類似的東西來加速它，但我不會排除類似的東西。

Okay.

好的。

Fair.

公平的。

And then just a follow-up on where Steve was going with Aero.

然後我們再來談談史蒂夫與 Aero 的合作進展。

I'll put words in your mouth.

我會把這些話放到你嘴裡。

If 15% is a floor next year, how do we think about your contract renewals that have been coming due?

如果明年的最低工資是 15%，那麼我們如何看待您即將到期的合約續約？

Do you kind of maybe juice that -- juice any growth rate a bit with some pricing on top of the volume, assuming Boeing, Airbus and the supply chains kind of start to normalize here?

假設波音、空中巴士和供應鏈開始正常化，您是否會透過在銷售基礎上定價來稍微提高成長率？

Our current contracts term out at the end of '26 with Boeing.

我們與波音公司的現行合約將於26年底到期。

I think Airbus do.

我認為空中巴士是的。

I'm sure Airbus.

我確信是空客。

So the new contracts and the new pricing and the new mix takes effect January of '26.

因此，新的合約、新的定價和新的組合將於 26 年 1 月生效。

So yes, and it's better.

是的，而且更好。

I mean since the old -- let's put it this way, since the old contracts were signed, the producer price index has probably gone up somewhere between 30% and 35%.

我的意思是，自從舊——這樣說吧，自從簽署舊合約以來，生產者物價指數可能已經上漲了 30% 到 35% 之間。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just further back on tariffs, maybe with the China topic.

然後再進一步討論關稅問題，也許還會涉及中國話題。

I think when you guys -- when we saw this years ago in 2018, you commented, I guess you don't really have a lot of direct competition in China, a lot of commoditized markets.

我想當你們——當我們在 2018 年看到這一點時，你們評論說，我猜你們在中國實際上並沒有太多直接競爭，有很多商品化的市場。

Does that really then move the needle for you guys if the tariffs into China are pretty significant?

如果對華徵收的關稅相當高，這對你們來說真的會產生影響嗎？

Just given that you place a lot of the commoditized market.

只是假設你佔據了大量的商品化市場。

I mean you don't have a lot of China competition, right?

我的意思是你們在中國沒有太多的競爭對手，對嗎？

I mean the customers you're dealing with are looking for more ruggedized, high-quality, differentiated bearings like you provide versus the commoditized market.

我的意思是，您所面對的客戶正在尋找更堅固、更優質、差異化的軸承，就像您所提供的軸承，而不是商品化的市場軸承。

So I mean, does it really move the needle?

所以我的意思是，它真的能起到作用嗎？

Well, are you, you're talking about exports into China?

那麼，您說的是出口到中國嗎？

I guess in both cases, right?

我想兩種情況都是這樣的，對吧？

I mean, do you sell directly that much into China right now?

我的意思是，您現在直接向中國銷售這麼多嗎？

And presumably, would there be a lot of substitute if those tariffs on products coming out of China are material?

那麼，如果對來自中國的產品徵收關稅的話，是否會有很多替代品呢？

Do you think you'll get a lot of business from commercial network?

您認為您會從商業網絡獲得很多業務嗎？

We sell, we sell it to China now, but it's not material.

我們現在把它賣給中國，但這並不重要。

It is, it isn't worth it isn't worth talking about.

是的，這不值得，不值得談論。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then I guess last one for me.

我想這對我來說是最後一個了。

Anything else you can say on kind of M&A?

關於併購，您還有什麼要說的嗎？

I know you talked about the leverage being down.

我知道您談到了槓桿率下降。

You've got more cash here with the preferred rolling off.

隨著優先股的滾動發行，您可以獲得更多的現金。

I mean, just anything close to the finish line?

我的意思是，任何接近終點線的事情？

Any specific adds, whether it's market you're looking to expand?

有什麼具體的補充嗎，是否是您想要擴展的市場？

Any kind of color you can maybe tell us?

您能告訴我們什麼顏色嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Well, certainly, we have the balance sheet now support expansion.

嗯，當然，我們現在的資產負債表支持擴張。

On the other hand, we have an unprecedented amount of projects, internal projects underway that we're developing for organic growth that are either in production or close to production.

另一方面，我們擁有數量空前的項目，我們正在進行的內部項目是為了實現有機增長而開發的，這些項目要么已經投入生產，要么接近投入生產。

So our first order of business is to look internally and make sure that these projects and products are well managed, and we don't disappoint our customers.

因此，我們的首要任務是審視內部，確保這些項目和產品得到良好的管理，並且不會讓客戶失望。

So that's our first order of priority.

所以這是我們的首要任務。

On acquisitions, we continue to review candidates.

在收購方面，我們將繼續審查候選人。

They -- I don't know how many to half a dozen come over the transom every month that kind of a rate.

他們——我不知道每個月有多少到六個人以這樣的速度從船尾過來。

And we're -- we look at fit with our markets, fit with our ability to sell, our ability to understand those markets.

而且我們—我們關注的是是否適合我們的市場，是否適合我們的銷售能力，以及我們了解這些市場的能力。

We look for scale.

我們尋求的是規模。

Scale is important.

規模很重要。

And we've gotten to the point where we'll accept no less than a top-tier management team.

現在我們已經到了只接受頂級管理團隊的地步。

Dodge completely spoiled us.

道奇徹底寵壞了我們。

Yes.

是的。

So right?

那麼對嗎？

We look at every one of them and we say, is it as good as Dodge?

我們觀察了每一輛車，然後問自己，這款車和道奇一樣好嗎？

And is it a yay or a nay in terms of management team.

從管理團隊的角度來看，這是贊成還是反對？

And so we're looking for another Dodge.

因此我們正在尋找另一輛道奇。

So that rules out, should we think about ruling out kind of fixer uppers or a company with maybe inferior margins?

那麼，我們是否應該考慮排除那些需要修繕的房子或利潤率較低的公司呢？

It just -- I've always looked at those as saying you could deploy your toolkit and there'd be a tremendous opportunity for accretion.

這只是——我一直認為這些表明你可以部署你的工具包，並且會有巨大的累積機會。

But if you're accepting no less than top-tier management, presumably the financials would be pretty good.

但如果你接受的管理層不低於頂級，那麼財務狀況可能會相當不錯。

Well, we were able to help Dodge out with their margins, and that all worked out well for everybody.

好吧，我們能夠幫助道奇提高利潤，這對每個人來說都是有益的。

So I think we want a management team basically that knows the game, has a lot of experience in the industry and the business and is willing to work with us.

因此，我認為我們需要一個了解遊戲規則、在產業和業務方面擁有豐富經驗並願意與我們合作的管理團隊。

And that's what we found with Dodge.

這正是我們在道奇身上發現的。

And so that's all kind of gray stuff when you're doing your diligence.

所以，當你盡職盡責時，這些都是灰色的東西。

You have to make a call exactly that.

您必須撥打該電話。

And that's where we are.

這就是我們現在的狀況。

I mean we've made bids on some of the candidates we've seen over the last quarter.

我的意思是，我們對上個季度見過的一些候選人進行了競標。

And I can only say that there's way too much private equity flowing around.

我只能說，現在流通的私募股權實在太多了。

And so whatever we do will be expensive.

因此，無論我們做什麼都會很昂貴。

Got it, that's helpful.

明白了，很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And just to add on to that, this is Rob Moffatt.

補充一下，這是 Rob Moffatt。

I mean to Dr. Hartnett's earlier point when we look to fiscal 2026 and the amount of organic growth that's out there.

我的意思是，當我們展望 2026 財年及其有機增長量時，Hartnett 博士之前提到過這一點。

We don't need to take risks on M&A.

我們不需要在併購上承擔風險。

Number one focus is just heads down and capturing the organic growth that's there and we can wait for the right pitch to come across the plate, whether it's products that management team, et cetera.

首要的重點是埋頭苦幹，抓住現有的有機成長，然後等待合適的機會出現，無論是產品、管理團隊等等。

But there's a lot of opportunity that we're focused on organically where we don't feel pressure to take a risk.

但我們自然而然地關注了許多機會，在這些機會中我們不會感受到冒險的壓力。

Ross Barn, William Blair.

羅斯·巴恩，威廉·布萊爾。

Apologies if I missed it, but did you provide the gross margins by segment between Aero and Industrial?

如果我錯過了，請原諒，但您是否提供了航空和工業部門的毛利率？

That'll be in the queue?

那會在隊列中嗎？

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

I guess the slide here though is that Aero was the heavy lift this quarter.

我想這裡的幻燈片是 Aero 是本季的重頭戲。

Just give me a sec, Ross, I'll pull it out for you.

等我一下，羅斯，我會幫你把它拿出來。

Industrial margins were exceptional, again, that you would expect.

工業利潤率再次超出預期。

Aerospace margins this quarter were over 40% to 40.5%.

本季航空航太利潤率超過 40% 至 40.5%。

Industrial margins were 46.5%.

工業利潤率為46.5%。

I mean that implies that you guys really aren't seeing much from the wide-body ramp and/or contract renewals, as I guess you previously noted.

我的意思是，這意味著你們實際上並沒有從寬體飛機升級和/或合約續約中看到太多變化，我想正如你們之前提到的那樣。

So there's still a pretty significant leg up here.

因此，這裡仍有相當大的優勢。

On the industrial side, do you get the sense that you're towards the end of the Dodge synergies then?

從工業方面來看，您是否感覺到道奇的協同效應已經接近尾聲了？

I think we'll have Dodge synergies for the next 10 years.

我認為未來十年我們與道奇將產生協同效應。

It doesn't seem to end.

一切似乎還沒結束。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe on the warehouse business, could you provide us what the growth was in the quarter between aftermarket and Aero?

也許在倉庫業務方面，您能否告訴我們售後市場和航空市場本季的成長情況？

I know that's -- or an OEM.

我知道那是——或者是 OEM。

I know that's stepping up here as it was warranties lap.

我知道這是在加強這裡，因為這是保固圈。

Ross, you're asking for aftermarket versus OEM Aero?

羅斯，你問的是售後市場還是 OEM Aero？

No, the Dodge warehouse.

不，是道奇倉庫。

Yes, that was up -- yes, I got it right here.

是的，就是這樣——是的，我就在這裡。

Solid performance across OEM and aftermarket it was up about 7% on a year-over-year basis.

原始設備製造商 (OEM) 和售後市場表現穩健，年成長約 7%。

Okay.

好的。

I guess kind of

我想

--

--

OEM and aftermarket.

OEM 和售後市場。

Yes.

是的。

So maybe just to kind of frame the Industrial runway at the end of the year into 2026.

因此，也許只是將年底的工業跑道規劃到 2026 年。

Roughly 70% of Industrial is stable and modest growth.

約70%的工業實現穩定、適度成長。

The warehouse is coming back and then semiconductor and oil and gas are still around trough levels.

倉庫正在回暖，而半導體、石油和天然氣仍然處於低谷水平。

Any sense on kind of where that stands on peak to trough or maybe just trough to normalized levels for OEM and semiconductor as those begin to come to back?

當這些開始回升時，對於 OEM 和半導體來說，從峰頂到谷底，或者可能只是從谷底到正常水平，有什麼感覺嗎？

I don't

我不知道

--

--

Yes.

是的。

We're starting to see semiconductor work its way back.

我們開始看到半導體產業的復甦。

We're seeing orders from customers that were nonexistent a year ago.

我們看到一年前還不存在的客戶的訂單。

These are old customers for us.

這些都是我們的老客戶。

So we know who they are and what they use and so on.

所以我們知道他們是誰、他們使用什麼等等。

So yes, we're starting to see that trickle back.

所以是的，我們開始看到這種涓滴現象的回流。

It hasn't reached the gallop yet.

它還沒有達到疾馳的程度。

Let's just put it that way.

我們就這麼說吧。

Okay.

好的。

I'm just trying to assess expectations on maybe if there's a lift above 4% growth in the near term if those did meaningfully accelerate.

我只是想評估一下預期，如果經濟確實顯著加速，短期內成長率是否能超過 4%。

But it sounds like you guys have a lot still ahead of you, so congrats on the quarter, and I'll leave it there.

但聽起來你們還有很多事情要做，所以恭喜本季度，我就到此為止了。

Jordan Lione, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬丹·萊昂內 (Jordan Lione)。

On Aero, could you guys give a little more detail on what the growth was for space and which end markets in the sense you guys saw the most growth for and expectations for going forward?

關於航空，你們能否更詳細地介紹一下太空領域的成長以及哪些終端市場將迎來最大成長以及未來的預期？

Pulling up space for you.

為您拉開空間。

Hold on a second.

等一下。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Space was solid again.

空間再次變得堅實起來。

It was another quarter with ballpark, call it, 40% year-over-year growth.

這又是一個年增約 40% 的季度。

The rest of Defense was pretty balanced.

其餘防守相當均衡。

Okay?

好的？

Also a couple of categories.

還有幾個類別。

Missiles and guided ammunitions are strong, fixed wing military, strong on the Defense side, but pretty balanced across the Board.

飛彈和導引彈藥很強大，固定翼軍用武器，在防禦方面很強，但各方面都相當平衡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dr Hartnett for any closing comments.

我想將發言權交還給 Hartnett 博士，請他發表最後評論。

Okay.

好的。

Well, this concludes our conference call for the third quarter.

好了，我們第三季的電話會議到此結束。

And I appreciate everybody's participation and all the good questions.

我感謝大家的參與和提出的所有好問題。

We look forward to talking to you again.

我們期待再次與您交談。

I think that's in May, end of May.

我認為那是在五月，五月底。

Good day.

再會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。