RBC Bearings Inc (RBC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to RBC Bearings' Fiscal 2025 first-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 RBC Bearings 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Rob Moffat, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給東道主投資者關係總監 Rob Moffat。請繼續。

Morning, and thank you for joining us for RBC Bearings' fiscal first-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm now with Dr. Michael Hartnett, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Daniel Bergeron, Director, Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer; and Rob Sullivan, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加 RBC Bearings 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。我現在與董事長、總裁兼執行長 Michael Hartnett 博士在一起。 Daniel Bergeron，董事、副總裁兼營運長；副總裁兼財務長 Rob Sullivan。

Before beginning today's call, let me remind you that some statements made today will be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors. We refer you to RBC Bearings' recent filings with the SEC for more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. These factors are also described in greater detail in the press release and on the company's website. In addition, reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial information is included as part of the release and is available on the company's website.

在開始今天的電話會議之前，讓我提醒大家，今天所做的一些陳述將具有前瞻性，並且是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們建議您參閱 RBC Bearings 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以更詳細地討論可能影響該公司未來經營業績和財務狀況的風險。新聞稿和公司網站上也對這些因素進行了更詳細的描述。此外，GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務資訊之間的調整也包含在新聞稿中，並可在公司網站上查看。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett.

現在，我將把電話轉給哈內特醫生。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm going to start today's call with a quick review of our quarter and fiscal year and hand it over to Rob for some detailed color on the numbers. And then I'll finish with some high-level thoughts on the industry, RBC's positioning, and some -- in our fiscal '25 outlook. First-quarter sales came in at $46.3 million, a 5% increase over last year. Strong performance from our aerospace and defense sector, showed a 23.7% expansion where our industrial business contracted slightly at 3.5%.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安，謝謝您加入我們。我將在今天的電話會議開始時快速回顧我們的季度和財年，然後將其交給 Rob，讓他對數字進行一些詳細的說明。最後，我將對產業、加拿大皇家銀行的定位以及我們的 25 財年展望中的一些高層想法進行結束。第一季銷售額為 4,630 萬美元，比去年增長 5%。我們的航空航太和國防領域表現強勁，成長了 23.7%，而我們的工業業務則略有收縮，為 3.5%。

In aerospace and defense, sales expanded approximately $30 million quarter to quarter, year­ over year with $149.1 million quarterly result. The defense sector led with a 38.1% expansion rate. Unquestionably, we can expect continued strong showings from our A and D sector through the balance of the year.

在航空航太和國防領域，銷售額環比成長約 3,000 萬美元，年增約 1.491 億美元。國防部門以 38.1% 的擴張率領先。毫無疑問，我們可以預期 A 和 D 部門在今年餘下的時間裡將繼續表現強勁。

On the individual side, we held our own against our peers, showing a small contraction of 3.5% of sales. Sales were $257.2 million. Weakened sector performance was seen in oil and gas, semiconductor machinery, and some general industrial markets. We currently expect and plan for these markets to strengthen in the second half of the year.

就個人而言，我們與同業保持一致，銷售額小幅收縮 3.5%。銷售額為 2.572 億美元。石油和天然氣、半導體機械和一些一般工業市場的產業表現疲軟。我們目前預計併計劃這些市場在下半年將會走強。

Adjusted gross margin for the quarter came in at $184 million, 45.3% of sales and almost 2 full percentage above last year. Clearly, our manufacturing plants are executing extremely well. We are operating well within our sweet spot in this regard, and many completed synergies and improvement projects contributed to this performance. Still many more productive concepts and plans are in the breach and/or active today. And these are very productive and promising areas for us to prospect.

該季度調整後毛利率為 1.84 億美元，佔銷售額的 45.3%，比去年高出近 2 個百分點。顯然，我們的製造工廠運作得非常好。在這方面，我們的營運狀況良好，許多已完成的協同效應和改進項目為此業績做出了貢獻。今天仍有許多更有成效的概念和計劃被破壞和/或活躍。這些都是我們可以探索的非常有成效和有前途的領域。

I'd like to acknowledge and thank our teams for this quarter's performance. Clearly, it is they who are the reason for RBC's continued successes. As a result, adjusted net income was $2.54 a share and adjusted EBITDA was 33% of revenues. Obviously, we're very pleased with this performance, and we really can't think of a better way to start our fiscal year. Net cash provided by the operating activities was $97.4 million versus $61.7 million last year, a 57.9% increase.

我要感謝我們的團隊本季的表現。顯然，正是他們才是加拿大皇家銀行持續成功的原因。結果，調整後淨利潤為每股 2.54 美元，調整後 EBITDA 佔營收的 33%。顯然，我們對這樣的表現非常滿意，我們真的想不出更好的方式來開始我們的財政年度。經營活動提供的淨現金為 9,740 萬美元，較去年的 6,170 萬美元成長 57.9%。

This allowed us to reduce debt another $60 million during the period, bringing the EBITDA to net debt ratio to approximately 2.1 times, another sweet spot. Overall, we expect more of the same performance from the aerospace and defense group through the year end. Some ups and downs in this regard as a result of normal seasonal impacts of holidays, vacations, and supply chain.

這使我們在此期間又減少了 6000 萬美元的債務，使 EBITDA 與淨債務比率達到約 2.1 倍，這是另一個最佳點。總體而言，我們預計到年底，航空航太和國防集團將有更多相同的表現。由於假日和供應鏈的正常季節性影響，這方面存在一些起伏。

On the industrial side, we are planning to see strengthening in the second half of the year and are setting our plans today accordingly. RBC is well positioned to support additional demand from both industrial and aerospace defense customers as well as space customers. We have the production capacity, the trained and skilled work forces in place, and are in the process of augmenting plant capacities to accommodate additional business awards.

在工業方面，我們計劃在下半年看到成長，並相應地制定今天的計劃。RBC 處於有利地位，可滿足工業和航空航太國防客戶以及航太客戶的額外需求。我們擁有生產能力、訓練有素、技術精湛的勞動力，並且正在擴大工廠產能，以適應更多的業務獎勵。

I'll now turn the call over to Rob for more details on our financial performance.

現在我將把電話轉給 Rob，以了解有關我們財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Mike. As Dr. Hartnett indicated, this is another strong quarter for RBC. Total sales growth of 5% in the quarter was surpassed by adjusted EBITDA growth of 11.3% and adjusted EPS growth of 19.2%. Along with that, we had free cash flow growth of 61% year over year. This was driven in large part by strong gross margin expansion, with first-quarter gross margin as a percentage of sales coming in at 45.3%, an expansion of roughly 190 basis points year­ over year. The two biggest drivers here continue to be the ongoing tailwinds from Dodge synergies and increased utilization of our aerospace manufacturing assets. We also saw tailwinds from strong plant efficiency expedites in a favorable mix.

謝謝你，麥克。正如 Hartnett 博士指出的那樣，這是 RBC 另一個強勁的季度。本季總銷售額成長 5%，但調整後 EBITDA 成長 11.3%，調整後每股收益成長 19.2%。除此之外，我們的自由現金流年增 61%。這在很大程度上是由強勁的毛利率擴張推動的，第一季毛利率佔銷售額的百分比為 45.3%，同比增長約 190 個基點。這裡的兩個最大驅動因素仍然是道奇協同效應和我們航空航太製造資產利用率提高的持續推動力。我們也看到了強勁的工廠效率加速了有利的組合所帶來的推動力。

On the SG&A line, we continue to make investments in our future growth. This includes sales force additions to support the international expansion that we have highlighted as part of our Dodge strategy and the resources needed to support that growth, including IT infrastructure and back office support. With that said, the rate of growth on the SG&A line moderated versus the year-ago period, and we were able to extract a modest amount of leverage this quarter.

在SG&A方面，我們繼續為未來的成長進行投資。這包括增加銷售團隊以支援我們在道奇策略中強調的國際擴張，以及支援這種成長所需的資源，包括 IT 基礎架構和後台支援。話雖如此，SG&A 線的成長率與去年同期相比有所放緩，我們本季能夠提取適量的槓桿。

Going forward, we expect SG&A as a percentage of sales to increase in Q2 and Q3 before normalizing in Q4. This led to adjusted EBITDA of $134 million this quarter, up 11.3% year over­ year and adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%, which is up almost 190 basis points versus last year's 31.1%. The EBITDA margin is a new record for RBC, eclipsing our recent peak of 31.7% in the second quarter of fiscal '24.

展望未來，我們預期銷售及管理費用佔銷售額的百分比將在第二季和第三季增加，然後在第四季恢復正常。這導致本季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.34 億美元，年成長 11.3%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 33%，比去年的 31.1% 成長近 190 個基點。EBITDA 利潤率創下了 RBC 的新紀錄，超過了 2024 財年第二季 31.7% 的近期高峰。

The achievement of this milestone was a multifaceted effort with credit being deserved across multiple layers of the company including the Dodge team for their efforts in extracting synergies and our operations and plant management teams for running at very high levels of plant efficiency during the quarter.

這項里程碑的實現是多方面的努力，公司各個層面都值得讚揚，包括道奇團隊在發揮協同效應方面所做的努力，以及我們的營運和工廠管理團隊在本季度以非常高的工廠效率運作。

Interest expense in the quarter was $17.2 million. This is down 16% year over year, reflecting the ongoing repayment of our term loan. The tax rate in our adjusted EPS calculation was 22.4%, a moderate year-over-year headwind versus last year's 22%. All together, this led to adjusted diluted EPS of $2.54, representing 19.2% of year-over-year growth, an impressive result on revenue growth of 5%.

本季利息支出為 1720 萬美元。年比下降 16%，反映了我們定期貸款的持續償還。我們調整後每股盈餘計算中的稅率為 22.4%，與去年的 22% 相比，年比略有下降。總而言之，調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.54 美元，年增 19.2%，營收成長 5%，這一結果令人印象深刻。

In terms of cash, free cash flow of $88.4 million ran at 144% conversion rate and grew 61% on a year-over-year basis. This was fueled by strong net income growth and improved working capital performance. As usual, we used a meaningful portion of the cash generated to continue to pay down our term loan. We repaid $60 million of the loan this quarter and continue to expect to repay $275 million to $300 million total for the year. The balance on the term loan at the end of the quarter was $615 million, leaving net debt at $1.05 billion and trailing net leverage of 2.1 times. We continue to expect trailing net leverage to be well below the 2 times mark exiting the fiscal year, leaving ample room for a return to M&A should the right deal come across our path.

現金方面，自由現金流為 8,840 萬美元，轉換率為 144%，較去年同期成長 61%。這是由強勁的淨利潤成長和營運資本績效改善所推動的。像往常一樣，我們使用了產生的現金的很大一部分來繼續償還我們的定期貸款。我們本季償還了 6,000 萬美元的貸款，並繼續預計全年償還總額為 2.75 億至 3 億美元。本季末定期貸款餘額為 6.15 億美元，淨債務為 10.5 億美元，追蹤淨槓桿率為 2.1 倍。我們仍然預計，本財年結束時的追蹤淨槓桿率將遠低於2倍大關，如果合適的交易出現在我們的路徑上，則為重返併購留下充足的空間。

As a reminder, our Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock is expected to automatically convert on October 15, 2024. Using Q1 results as an approximation, the net impact of this conversion is expected to be slightly accretive to earnings per share, assuming conversion at the current share price. It will be more meaningfully accretive, however, to free cash flow as the conversion will remove the cash dividend payment, reducing our future total cash outlays by approximately $23 million on an annualized basis. This is roughly 9.5% of fiscal '24's total free cash flow.

謹此提醒，我們的 A 系列強制可轉換優先股預計將於 2024 年 10 月 15 日自動轉換。使用第一季的業績作為近似值，假設以當前股價進行轉換，預計此次轉換的淨影響將略微增加每股收益。然而，這將更有意義地增加自由現金流，因為轉換將取消現金股利支付，從而使我們未來的年度現金支出總額減少約 2,300 萬美元。這大約佔 24 財年自由現金流總額的 9.5%。

In closing, this was another strong quarter for RBC. We remain focused on leveraging our core strengths in engineering, manufacturing, and product development to drive organic and inorganic growth, continued margin excellence, and high levels of free cash flow conversion.

最後，這是加拿大皇家銀行的另一個強勁季度。我們仍然專注於利用我們在工程、製造和產品開發方面的核心優勢來推動有機和無機成長、持續卓越的利潤率和高水準的自由現金流轉換。

With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

那麼，接線員，請打開問答電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

With industrial end market kind of starting to decline here, can you provide more content and detail about what you're seeing in the different end markets and exactly how far away we are from a trough and what we'd have to see to see improvement? Because it seems like the issue in the quarter is just a little bit of weakness in the top line. But that said, I mean, with a 45% gross margin for the business, that's still pretty incredible performance.

隨著工業終端市場開始下滑，您能否提供更多內容和詳細信息，說明您在不同終端市場中看到的情況，以及我們距離低谷到底有多遠，以及我們需要看到什麼才能看到改善？因為本季的問題似乎只是營收的一點疲軟。但話雖如此，我的意思是，該業務的毛利率為 45%，這仍然是相當令人難以置信的業績。

Yeah. Well, when we're looking at the industrial markets, Kristine, there's a few things where we saw a substantial amount of softness, and we've seen that continued for almost 12 months now. And that's in semicon and oil and gas. And on the semicon (technical difficulty)

是的。克里斯汀，當我們審視工業市場時，我們看到了一些明顯的疲軟情況，而且這種情況已經持續了近 12 個月。這就是半導體、石油和天然氣領域。在半導體上（技術難度）

Hello, I think the line dropped.

你好，我想線路掉線了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the operator, please stand by. We're experiencing technical difficulties. We will resume momentarily.

女士們先生們，我是接線員，請稍候。我們遇到技術困難。我們將暫時恢復。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Gentlemen, you may continue.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。先生們，你們可以繼續。

Kristine, please continue your question.

克里斯汀，請繼續你的問題。

Where did I leave you, Kristine?

我把你丟哪裡了，克莉絲汀？

Great. Mike, you were talking about semiconductors is where you've seen the weakness in oil and gas, and that's where that line dropped off.

偉大的。麥克，你剛才談到半導體，你已經看到了石油和天然氣的弱點，這就是這條線下降的地方。

Yeah. Okay. So those are the two majors. The oil and gas is sort of -- we have a major customer, we had a planning problem and got too much a year ago and now is sort of liquidating that position. We expect him to get better as the year progresses. And the rest of the business, there's a slight downward bias on the rest of the market. Some positive, some negative, but overall bias down.

是的。好的。這是兩個專業。石油和天然氣是這樣的——我們有一個主要客戶，我們有一個規劃問題，一年前得到了太多，現在正在清算這個部位。我們希望他隨著時間的推移變得更好。至於其他業務，市場的其他部分則略有下降。有些是正面的，有些是負面的，但整體偏向下降。

Great. And just to follow up in terms of where we're seeing the weakness. Are these mostly on new builds? Or was the slowdown in buying also in the aftermarket if there was a little bit of an [overreach] in buying before?

偉大的。只是為了跟進我們發現的弱點。這些大多是新建的嗎？或者，如果之前的購買有一點[過度]，那麼售後市場的購買也會放緩嗎？

Yeah. I think it's -- by and large, it's a slowdown in the aftermarket in the various industrial sectors that support the aftermarket.

是的。我認為，總的來說，這是支持售後市場的各個工業部門的售後市場放緩。

I see. And then as you look at the recovery for each of these end markets, which quarter do you think industrial revenue could potentially trough? And do you have any visibility into that?

我懂了。然後，當您觀察每個終端市場的復甦時，您認為工業收入可能會在哪個季度陷入低谷？您對此有任何了解嗎？

If I had the visibility, I would probably know what stocks to buy and which stocks to sell, right? I don't have that kind of visibility. What we do have is economic models that sort of give us a general overall direction. And those economic models are saying -- have been telling us that it's flat through our third quarter and very strong in our last quarter. And that's sort of how we're piloting the ship today.

如果我有可見性，我可能會知道該買什麼股票，賣什麼股票，對吧？我沒有那樣的能見度。我們所擁有的是經濟模型，它可以為我們提供一個總體方向。這些經濟模型一直告訴我們，第三季經濟持平，上季非常強勁。這就是我們今天駕駛這艘船的方式。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·恰莫利 (Michael Ciarmoli)，Truist 證券公司。

Maybe just to stay on industrial. I guess the quarterly results on revenue came up short of your guidance. Was that -- was the industrial weakness, the biggest driver of that delta? Or did anything else kind of materialize?

也許只是為了繼續工業化。我猜季度收入結果未達到您的指引。工業疲軟是該三角洲的最大驅動力嗎？或者還有其他的事情發生了嗎？

No. That was the biggest driver. It's just -- it's all about consumption rates, industrial consumption rates. Our estimates for those rates at the beginning of the quarter and the actual consumption that we see during the quarter creates the variance.

不。這是最大的推動力。這只是——這一切都與消費率、工業消費率有關。我們在季度初對這些費率的估計和我們在本季度看到的實際消耗造成了差異。

Got it. Got it. Do you have that -- I guess ever since the acquisition of Dodge and the amount of industrial revenues that go through aftermarket distribution now is pretty sizable at the company level. I mean, do you have the level of visibility into the distributors to know if there's really going to be a more pronounced destock in any of these industrial sectors? Or do you even have some sort of min-max thresholds? Do you have a certain base level of demand that you're shipping to in the industrial channels?

知道了。知道了。你有嗎——我想自從收購道奇以來，現在透過售後市場分配的工業收入在公司層面上是相當可觀的。我的意思是，您對經銷商的了解程度是否足以了解這些工業部門是否真的會進行更明顯的去庫存？或者你甚至有某種最小-最大閾值嗎？您在工業通路中是否有一定的基本需求水準？

Well, we have probably the same information that you have. I mean, some of these are public companies and they published quite detailed information on what their situation is. And basically, I don't think there's any much destocking going on. I think part of the year-to­ year comp delta there was that a year ago, we were still benefiting from a recovering supply thing and cleaning up backlog. Those are products that have been on the order book for an extended period of time.

嗯，我們可能擁有與您相同的資訊。我的意思是，其中一些是上市公司，他們發布了有關其情況的非常詳細的資訊。基本上，我認為不會有太多去庫存的情況發生。我認為，逐年比較增量的一部分是，一年前，我們仍然受益於供應的恢復和積壓的清理。這些是已經在訂單簿上長期存在的產品。

But as a result of supply chain difficulties, we couldn't complete those orders. And so last year, we probably benefited from some number that it might be as high as $10 million of that backlog reduction. And this year, we -- supply chain is normal. And so we're just living on the economic consumption rate as is our distributors. I mean, I don't think there's any serious [beatbacking] going on anywhere.

但由於供應鏈困難，我們無法完成這些訂單。因此，去年，我們可能從某個數字中受益，積壓訂單減少量可能高達 1,000 萬美元。今年，我們—供應鏈正常。因此，我們和我們的經銷商一樣，只是靠經濟消費率生存。我的意思是，我認為任何地方都沒有發生任何嚴重的[beatbacking]。

Okay, okay. Do you think as you look out for the remainder of '25, I mean, you had a tough comp year over­ year in the first quarter for industrial, but they certainly get easier. Do you think industrial grows for fiscal '25? Or do you think it's going to be sort of low single-digit kind of pressure all year?

好吧，好吧。你是否認為，當你展望 25 年剩下的時間時，我的意思是，你在第一季的工業領域同比表現很艱難，但他們肯定會變得更容易。您認為 25 財年工業會成長嗎？還是你認為全年的壓力都會是個位數的低水準？

Our plan today, asset growing. And that's -- we're expecting, as I said, some recovery in semicon. We're expecting a milder recovery in oil and gas. And then the rest of it is about industrial economic consumption rate.

我們今天的計劃是，資產成長。正如我所說，我們預計半導體產業會出現一些復甦。我們預計石油和天然氣將出現溫和復甦。然後剩下的就是工業經濟消耗率。

Any more detail on the year-over-year growth rates by channel and aerospace, OEM aftermarket distribution, I think you called out defense already?

有關渠道和航空航天、OEM 售後市場分銷的同比增長率的更多詳細信息，我想您已經呼籲進行防禦了嗎？

Yeah. I think Rob can give you those. He's looking at it now. So I'll turn the call over to Rob.

是的。我想羅布可以給你這些。他現在正在看著它。所以我會把電話轉給羅布。

Yeah. They were very consistent. Like they were both right around at 23.7% for OEM, 23.9% for distribution. So very consistent.

是的。他們非常一致。就像它們在 OEM 方面的比例都在 23.7% 左右，在分銷方面的比例都在 23.9% 左右。所以非常一致。

Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

Pete Skibitski，Alembic Global。

Nice performance. Hey, Mike, just on the torrid growth in defense, I think you said 38%. Was there a few programs that are helping just so much above the market, above all the OEMs. So I'm just wondering if you can give us more color on what's driving that.

表現不錯。嘿，麥克，關於防守的快速增長，我想你說的是 38%。是否有一些項目能夠在市場上（尤其是原始設備製造商）之上提供如此多的幫助？所以我只是想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於推動這一趨勢的因素的資訊。

It's like the fourth quarter in a row that type of really strong growth. And I don't know if you can talk about pricing at all. In terms of pricing maybe finally catching up with past inflation because I know you're on a lot of LTAs as well. So just if you could comment there.

這就像連續第四個季度出現了真正強勁的成長。我不知道你是否可以談論定價。就定價而言，也許最終會趕上過去的通貨膨脹，因為我知道你們也簽署了許多長期協議。所以，如果你能在那裡發表評論的話。

Yes. Just to get the pricing thing out of the way, I don't think we're seeing any benefit from that right now. A lot of our contracts roll over in '25 and '26. So we're really still living with prices that were probably set in '21, maybe '20, maybe '19. So that's basically -- that's headwind for us.

是的。只是為了解決定價問題，我認為我們現在沒有看到任何好處。我們的許多合約都會在 25 年和 26 年到期。所以我們實際上仍然生活在可能在 21 年、也許是 20 年、也許是 19 年設定的價格。所以這基本上是我們的逆風。

But there are several major programs that are going to continue to drive that kind of expansion. And it's a -- I think the year-to-year comps will become more difficult because this started about a year ago. But when you talk about the need to build submarines, that's not going away for 5 or 10 years, probably 10 years. That's going to be very demanding that we're involved with right now. Missile, demanding; joint strike fighter, demanding; long-range bomber, demanding.

但有幾個主要項目將繼續推動這種擴張。我認為逐年比較會變得更加困難，因為這是大約一年前開始的。但當你談到建造潛水艇的必要性時，這種情況5年或10年都不會消失，可能是10年。我們現在參與的工作要求非常高。導彈，要求很高；聯合攻擊戰鬥機，要求高；遠程轟炸機，要求很高。

So there's just a lot of really big programs that we're working on. And also, the cancellation of the viral program for the scout helicopter that impacted the core (inaudible) and Lockheed as a result, benefited the other ship that we're on tremendously because the other ship, we're sort of in, to some extent, a hiatus like CH-47 and the Apache, the Black Hawk, those are major important platforms for us. And the rest of the world doesn't know whether they could buy those platforms are not based upon where the DoD money was heading. And that environment has cleared, and there's a lot of interest for an interest in those platforms. So we're -- it's kind of a perfect one for us on the defense side.

所以我們正在研究很多非常大的項目。而且，取消影響核心（聽不清楚）和洛克希德的偵察直升機病毒計劃，使我們所在的另一艘船受益匪淺，因為對某些人來說，我們所在的另一艘船在某種程度上，像CH-47 和阿帕契、黑鷹這樣的中斷，這些對我們來說都是重要的平台。世界其他地方不知道他們是否可以購買這些平台，這與國防部的資金流向無關。這種環境已經變得清晰，人們對這些平台產生了極大的興趣。所以我們——這對我們的防守來說是完美的。

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. Just one follow-up for me, maybe on the commercial side. It sounds like Boeing is at about, on the max there, at at about 25 per month now in June and July. Can you guys just remind us where you were over the past couple of quarters? I think they've been maintaining you like in the 30s or so. Does that sound about right?

是的。好的。這是有道理的。對我來說只是一個後續行動，也許是在商業方面。聽起來波音公司在 6 月和 7 月的最高產量約為每月 25 架。你們能提醒我們過去幾季你們在哪裡嗎？我想他們一直把你維持在30多歲的樣子。聽起來對嗎？

Yes, that sounds about right. I think the -- I think our planning now is probably at a 33 rig. Although they've indicated, they'll be at 38 by the end of the year. And the new CEO has agreed with that. I hope when he goes up at his office, he agrees with it even further.

是的，聽起來不錯。我認為——我認為我們現在的計劃可能是 33 台鑽孔機。儘管他們已經表示，到今年年底他們的年齡將達到 38 歲。新任執行長也同意這一點。我希望當他到辦公室時，他能進一步同意這一點。

So yeah, I think we have a very modest expectation built into our planning with regard to Boeing demand. And that seems to be the way playing out.

所以，是的，我認為我們對波音需求的規劃抱持著非常溫和的期望。這似乎就是結果。

Yeah. And if they make that 38 rate by the end of the year, I imagine your -- potentially you could accelerate, I guess, into fiscal '26, it sounds like.

是的。如果他們到今年年底達到 38 的利率，我想你可能會加速進入 26 財年，聽起來像是這樣。

Yes. Well, I think they've got to get the [FAA] to approve a step-up behind 38, assuming they can get to 38%. And so obviously, our parts for the most part. have to be available six months ahead of -- that's our planning cycle ahead of the aircraft assembly rates. So that's kind of moved -­ that moved April into October on the 38. So we should be really, really conservative using a [32, 20 win].

是的。好吧，我認為他們必須讓 [FAA] 批准將比例提高到 38%，假設他們可以達到 38%。很明顯，我們的大部分零件。必須提前六個月提供——這是我們在飛機組裝速度之前的規劃週期。所以這有點感動——把 4 月的時間移到了 10 月的 38 日。所以我們應該非常非常保守地使用[32、20勝]。

Jordan Lyonnais, Bank of America.

喬丹·里昂，美國銀行。

On M&A, could you guys give any color on deals in the pipe you're seeing any changes in size or scope? And two, if you're looking at anything to get more capacity if the A&D side keeps growing at this rate?

關於併購，你們能否對你們看到的規模或範圍發生變化的管道中的交易給出任何顏色？第二，如果 A&D 方面繼續以這種速度成長，您是否正在考慮採取任何措施來獲得更多產能？

Well, I think we're seeing A&D-like companies coming to market, and we're investigating it with RBC. We have really nothing to report at this point. Obviously, if one of those companies does come to market. they'll likely come to market with their own capacity. So they probably won't tax ours.

嗯，我認為我們正在看到類似 A&D 的公司進入市場，我們正在與 RBC 一起對其進行調查。目前我們確實沒有什麼好報告的。顯然，如果其中一家公司確實進入市場。他們可能會以自己的能力進入市場。所以他們可能不會對我們徵稅。

But there's just a lot going on in the A&D world, and we can either -- and we're very pleased with our growth in that sector and the outlook in that sector for the next several years. So we're being cautious and conservative about what we take on.

但航空航太與國防領域正在發生很多事情，我們也可以——而且我們對我們在該領域的成長以及該領域未來幾年的前景感到非常滿意。因此，我們對我們所採取的行動持謹慎和保守的態度。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hey, Mike, seeing gross margin above 45% with industrial down 3.5% is great performance.

嘿，麥克，看到毛利率超過 45%，而工業下降 3.5%，這真是太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure. You earned it. Was that all mix in aerospace? Or was there something unusual in there?

當然。你賺到了。這些都是航空航太領域的混合嗎？還是裡面有什麼不尋常的東西？

No, aerospace contributed, Its margin is improving. I think it's -- as I said, we have a lot of contracts that were in our way through that were inked in '19, '20, and '21 that are a little bit of a headwind. We're becoming more efficient in the execution of those contracts just because there's more volume and more absorption as a result of that.

不，航空航天做出了貢獻，其利潤率正在提高。我認為，正如我所說，我們有很多合約是在 19 年、20 年和 21 年簽署的，這些合約有點逆風。我們在執行這些合約方面變得更有效率，因為交易量更大，吸收量也更大。

We have also better methods and a little better capitalization here and there to execute some of those designs. So I would say it was very solid performance on the industrial side that really carried the day.

我們還有更好的方法和更好的資本來執行其中一些設計。所以我想說，真正取得成功的是工業方面非常穩健的表現。

So industrial margins were up even against negative 3.5% organic?

那麼工業利潤率甚至比有機利潤率負 3.5% 有所上升？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

And what in industrial drove that? Because that's a pretty big absorption headwind to overcome, isn't it? Like what was it mix that made that so rich?

工業領域是什麼推動了這一點？因為這是一個需要克服的相當大的吸收逆風，不是嗎？到底是什麼組合讓其如此豐富？

Well, we've been talking about synergies for a long time, and we're starting to see it. They did have a favorable mix this quarter. I can't say that we're going to see margins like that forever, but we saw in the first quarter.

嗯，我們已經討論協同效應很長時間了，我們開始看到它。他們本季確實有一個有利的組合。我不能說我們會永遠看到這樣的利潤率，但我們在第一季就看到了。

I think the neighborhood that we'll probably end up living in is more like 44% when the year is all done, but we'll see. That's hard to predict. So there's a lot of synergies that went on. Mix was favorable. Plant efficiencies were absolutely better.

我認為，當這一年結束時，我們最終可能居住的社區大約是 44%，但我們拭目以待。這很難預測。因此，存在著許多協同效應。混合效果良好。工廠效率絕對更高。

There's no question about that. I mean, they're operating in their sweet spot, and we've had methods improvements. And we've had improvements in supply chain cost structure. So everybody has a role when they come to work in the morning and a little piece of each one of these issues. And they [indiscernible] it makes a difference.

毫無疑問。我的意思是，他們正處於最佳狀態，我們也改進了方法。我們的供應鏈成本結構也得到了改善。因此，每個人早上上班時都有自己的角色，並且對每個問題都有自己的一小部分。他們[音頻不清晰]這會產生影響。

So I guess you're guiding fiscal 2Q gross margin down 100 or 200 basis points against what is obviously a tough comp. But is there any specific thing causing that sequential decrease?

因此，我猜你們將第二財季毛利率指導下調了 100 或 200 個基點，而這顯然是一個艱難的競爭。但有什麼具體原因導致了這種連續下降嗎？

I think we have fewer production days in Q2 and Q3. That has been pretty consistent over time. So you have a little bit of a headwind there. And then you couple that with the favorable mix we had in the first quarter, you just added up to this is where we're seeing things in Q2.

我認為我們第二季和第三季的生產天數較少。隨著時間的推移，這一直非常一致。所以你在那裡有一點逆風。然後，將其與我們在第一季的有利組合相結合，將其加起來就是我們在第二季度看到的情況。

And the right way to look at it, it's probably more on a year-over-year basis, right, and you don't know the range is calculated from expansion on a year.

正確的看法是，它可能更多是按年計算的，對吧，而且你不知道這個範圍是根據一年的擴張計算出來的。

Understood. And then on the revenue side, Aerospace is up 24% against a 21% comp. You talked about all the things that are going right there. Do you expect 20%-plus growth again in 2Q?

明白了。在收入方面，航空航太公司的收入成長了 24%，而同期公司的收入成長了 21%。你談到了那裡正在發生的所有事情。您預計第二季將再次實現20%以上的成長嗎？

We're not planning for it, but I can't say that it won't happen.

我們沒有計劃這樣做，但我不能說它不會發生。

Well, I guess the question then is, you expect industrial to recover in the back half. Do you think that's up sequentially from a revenue standpoint? Or is that more likely down given some of the softness that you're seeing right now?

好吧，我想接下來的問題是，你預計工業將在下半年復甦。您認為從收入的角度來看，這是連續上升的嗎？或者考慮到您現在看到的一些疲軟情況，這種情況更有可能下​​降嗎？

Yes, that's more likely down.

是的，下降的可能性更大。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. I just want to start with a more long-term question. Your EBIT margin this quarter, 32.9%, the highest we've seen -- you've previously talked about mid-30s long-term EBITDA margin, which is not far away from where you are today. So just wondering what kind of updated long-term margins you have your eyes set on and just how to think about the margin improvement part from here once the industrial businesses do start inflecting positively?

我是維韋克·斯里瓦斯塔瓦（Vivek Srivastava）為喬代言。我只想從一個更長期的問題開始。你們本季的 EBIT 利潤率，是我們見過的最高水平——你們之前談到過 30 多歲的長期 EBITDA 利潤率，這與你們今天的水平相差不遠。因此，只是想知道您關注的是哪種更新的長期利潤率，以及一旦工業企業確實開始積極變化，如何從這裡考慮利潤率改善部分？

We're thrilled with the 33% that we achieved this year. We're far ahead coming out of the gate of what we talked about Q1. We talked about where we're seeing gross margins into Q2. Our mission is to continue to squeeze the lemon to expand margin every quarter and invest for our ability. So we're not looking to put out long-term guidance, but we are telling you that we're continuing to thrive, eke out that EBITDA margin. And I think we have opportunities in different pockets.

我們對今年取得的 33% 的成績感到非常興奮。我們在第一季的討論中遙遙領先。我們討論了第二季的毛利率。我們的使命是繼續榨取檸檬汁以擴大每個季度的利潤並為我們的能力進行投資。因此，我們並不打算發布長期指導，但我們告訴您，我們正在繼續蓬勃發展，維持 EBITDA 利潤率。我認為我們在不同的領域都有機會。

That's helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on that. As your margin continues to improve, industrial growth, your long-term target, probably close to 2x GDP. Is reinvesting within the industrial business, something that could potentially accelerate a bit more from here to return to that 2x GDP growth target?

這很有幫助。也許只是後續行動。隨著利潤率不斷提高，您的長期目標產業成長可能接近 GDP 的 2 倍。工業企業內的再投資是否有可能從現在加速，回到 2 倍 GDP 成長目標？

Can you clarify? I'm sorry.

你能澄清一下嗎？對不起。

Yes. Just given you're getting such strong margins right now, will reinvesting back in the business for growth be something that could potentially accelerate from here on?

是的。鑑於您現在獲得瞭如此強勁的利潤，從現在開始對業務進行再投資以實現成長是否可能會加速？

Well, I think those are two different things. We're reinvesting in the industrial business for cost reasons. In other words, we're trying to reduce our cost of sales by putting in capital equipment that will make our plants more efficient and incorporate manufacturing processes that we don't have in-house today and are very expensive to buy in the outhouse. So that's ongoing, and we're making not in substantial investments in those kinds of machinery.

嗯，我認為這是兩件不同的事情。出於成本原因，我們正在對工業業務進行再投資。換句話說，我們正試圖透過投入資本設備來降低銷售成本，這些設備將使我們的工廠更加高效，並整合我們目前內部沒有的製造工藝，並且在外部購買的成本非常昂貴。因此，這種情況仍在持續，我們並未對此類機械進行大量投資。

And so that's why we're reasonably confident that that will accrue to gross margin over time. In terms of growth, the industrial business on an annual rate now is probably running over $1 billion. So in order to really impact that kind of number, to get the internal growth mechanism performing at a measurable level requires some pretty big projects. And ultimately -- and so we have our eye on some pretty big projects. But ultimately, those bigger projects take time to implement. And so we've just got to work through that.

這就是為什麼我們有理由相信，隨著時間的推移，毛利率將會增加。就成長而言，工業業務目前的年增長率可能超過 10 億美元。因此，為了真正影響這個數字，讓內部成長機制在可衡量的水平上發揮作用，需要一些相當大的項目。最終，我們著眼於一些相當大的項目。但最終，這些更大的項目需要時間來實施。所以我們必須解決這個問題。

And that's sort of ongoing right now.

現在這種情況仍在繼續。

That's very helpful color. Maybe one last question from me. Just on the backlog, I noticed that in the press release, you provided backlog beyond 12 months, but we didn't see backlog due within 12 months. Just wanted to understand the rationale behind that? And just any color on the backlog due within 12 months.

這是非常有用的顏色。也許是我的最後一個問題。就積壓而言，我注意到在新聞稿中，你們提供了超過 12 個月的積壓，但我們沒有看到 12 個月內到期的積壓。只是想了解背後的原理嗎？以及 12 個月內到期的積壓訂單中的任何顏色。

Yes. We made a strategic decision and communicated last quarter that from here on out. we were just going to be presenting the full on backlog because that such a significant part of our business, especially on the defense side, at this point. we think that's the more appropriate way to look at our overall backlog position.

是的。我們做出了一項戰略決策，並在上個季度進行了溝通，從現在開始。我們只是要展示完整的積壓工作，因為這是我們業務的重要組成部分，尤其是在防禦方面。我們認為這是看待我們總體積壓情況的更合適的方式。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

Just -- I guess one for me on the gross margins and a lot obviously discussed here in terms of the outlook for the second quarter. But thinking in terms of, I believe, the expectation coming into the year was that you may see more of a lift in the back half of the year as you better absorb some of that aerospace fixed capacity and the Dodge synergies kick in even more. But a, the industrial economy obviously being weaker, does that -- does that change the outlook in terms of -- on the Dodge side?

只是 - 我想對我來說一個關於毛利率的問題，並且這裡顯然討論了第二季度的前景。但我認為，從今年的預期來看，你可能會在今年下半年看到更多的提升，因為你可以更好地吸收一些航空航太固定產能，並且道奇的協同效應會發揮更大的作用。但是，工業經濟明顯疲軟，這是否會改變道奇方面的前景？

And then I guess, related to that. was there some maybe pull ahead that maybe some of those benefits that you're expecting more in the later part of the year, maybe they came earlier as a contributor in the first quarter. So I guess, simply stated, do you still -- is the expectation still that there's room for more -- even more kind of a second half lift from some of these drivers?

然後我想，與此相關。是否有一些可能提前，也許您在今年下半年期待更多的一些好處，也許他們在第一季作為貢獻者提前到來。所以我想，簡單地說，你是否仍然期望這些車手中有更多的空間，甚至更多的下半年提升？

Right now, we continue to expect the second half lift. One of the things that attracted us to do that when we bought that is when you look at the revenue performance at Dodge over a series of years, through various economic cycles. It's a very low beta company. It's so integrated into the US infrastructure that when you're pouring your cereal in the morning, we actually had something to do with that.

目前，我們仍預計下半年會有所改善。當我們購買該公司時，吸引我們這樣做的原因之一是，你可以看看道奇公司多年來在不同經濟週期中的收入表現。這是一家貝塔值非常低的公司。它如此融入美國的基礎設施，以至於當你早上倒麥片時，我們實際上與此有關。

When you're driving your car over a street or a bridge, to get to work. We actually had something to do with that road. So we're -- and whatever we supplied only lasted a few years before nature had its way with it. and we had to replace it. So Dodge has a very strong recurring revenue driven by human consumption in North America.

當您開車經過街道或橋樑去上班時。我們其實與那條路有關。所以我們——無論我們提供什麼，都只能持續幾年，然後自然就會順其自然。我們不得不更換它。因此，在北美人類消費的推動下，道奇擁有非常強勁的經常性收入。

And so whether the economy is expanding or it's contracting slightly Dodge's business is probably going to performed well through the cycle. In terms of what we expect for the rest of the year, we expect the semicon to pick up, and we expect oil and gas to recover. And if there's more tension in the Middle East that interferes with the production of oil, we will definitely feel the acceleration in our business. So that's sort of where the thing sits right now.

因此，無論經濟是擴張還是略有收縮，道奇的業務都可能在整個週期中表現良好。就我們對今年剩餘時間的預期而言，我們預計半導體將回升，並且預計石油和天然氣將復甦。如果中東局勢更加緊張，幹擾石油生產，我們肯定會感受到我們業務的加速發展。這就是現在的情況。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Dr. Hartnett for any closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，目前沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉給哈特內特博士，讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Well, I'd like to thank everyone for participating today, and we look forward to speaking again to you in the fall. So a good day.

好的。好吧，我要感謝大家今天的參與，我們期待在秋天再次與你們交談。這是美好的一天。

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。