高通 (QCOM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

    女士們,先生們,謝謝你們的支持。

  • Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

    歡迎參加 Qualcomm 2019 財年第四季度和財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, November 6, 2019.

    (操作員說明)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製,2019 年 11 月 6 日。

  • The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853.

    今天電話的播放號碼是(877)660-6853。

  • International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415.

    國際呼叫者請撥打 (201) 612-7415。

  • The playback reservation number is 13695634.

    播放預約號為13695634。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

    我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan,Lopez-Hodoyan 先生,請繼續。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。

  • Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and the Akash Palkhiwala.

    今天的電話會議將包括 Steve Mollenkopf 和 Akash Palkhiwala 準備好的講話。

  • In addition, Cristiano Amon; Alex Rogers; and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.

    此外,克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙;亞歷克斯·羅傑斯; Don Rosenberg 將參加問答環節。

  • You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website.

    您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片演示。

  • In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

    此外,本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網絡直播,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。

  • During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用法規 G 中定義的非 GAAP 財務指標,您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的對賬。

  • We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results.

    我們還將做出前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務結果的預測和估計。

  • Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

    實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。

  • Please refer to our SEC filings, including most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

    請參閱我們的 SEC 文件,包括最近的 10-K,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的重要因素。

  • And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

    現在是高通公司首席執行官史蒂夫莫倫科夫的評論。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝毛里西奧,大家下午好。

  • We are pleased to report strong results in the fourth quarter with non-GAAP earnings of $0.78 per share, above the high end of our guidance range on the solid performance in our licensing business.

    我們很高興地報告第四季度的強勁業績,非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.78 美元,高於我們對許可業務穩健表現的指導範圍的高端。

  • We are also pleased to see our licensing revenue return to a seasonal pattern, with fiscal Q1 as a high based on our recent licensing agreement with Apple.

    我們也很高興看到我們的許可收入恢復到季節性模式,根據我們最近與蘋果公司的許可協議,第一財季的收入很高。

  • Over the last several years, we have invested to establish Qualcomm as a leader in 5G.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們投資將高通打造成 5G 的領導者。

  • As a reminder, 5G brings a significant increase in complexity over 4G, such as new and dense network architectures, high performance-based bands, advanced RF front end designs, increased processing requirements, in addition to driving the leading-edge process node.

    提醒一下,與 4G 相比,5G 帶來了複雜性的顯著增加,例如新的密集網絡架構、基於高性能的頻段、先進的射頻前端設計、更高的處理要求,此外還推動了領先的工藝節點。

  • We are actively focused on helping to define and standardize releases 16 and 17 features to support the expansion of 5G into new, large, adjacent markets such as enterprise, industrial IoT and automotive.

    我們積極致力於幫助定義和標準化版本 16 和 17 的功能,以支持 5G 擴展到新的大型相鄰市場,例如企業、工業物聯網和汽車。

  • The complexity and expansion of cellular technologies beyond the smartphone into nearly every industry play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and are why we believe 5G will represent the single biggest opportunity in Qualcomm's history.

    從智能手機到幾乎所有行業的蜂窩技術的複雜性和擴展性直接發揮了高通的優勢,這也是我們相信 5G 將代表高通歷史上最大機遇的原因。

  • Looking ahead to fiscal year 2020, the company remains focused on these 3 key priorities.

    展望 2020 財年,公司將繼續專注於這三個關鍵優先事項。

  • Number one, continue executing on 5G with our partners around the world.

    第一,繼續與我們在世界各地的合作夥伴一起執行 5G。

  • The number of OEMs and operators launching 5G products and services continues to increase throughout the year.

    全年推出 5G 產品和服務的 OEM 和運營商數量持續增加。

  • There are now over 40 OEMs and over 30 operators launching or announcing 5G products or commercial service, up from approximately 20 OEMs and operators, respectively, at the start of the year.

    現在有 40 多家 OEM 和 30 多家運營商推出或宣布 5G 產品或商業服務,而年初時分別有大約 20 家 OEM 和運營商。

  • Looking forward, we expect 5G to launch in all regions within the next 2 to 3 years.

    展望未來,我們預計 5G 將在未來 2 至 3 年內在所有地區推出。

  • On the product side, in September, we announced plans to accelerate 5G global commercialization at scale by expanding our portfolio of 5G mobile platforms into the Snapdragon 7 series and 6 series, launching as early as calendar Q1 2020.

    在產品方面,9 月,我們宣布計劃通過將我們的 5G 移動平台組合擴展到 Snapdragon 7 系列和 6 系列,最早於 2020 年第一季度推出,以加速 5G 全球商業化。

  • Our integrated 5G SoCs will support both sub-6 gigahertz and millimeter wave at the volume tiers across all geographies.

    我們的集成 5G SoC 將在所有地區的體積層支持 6 GHz 以下和毫米波。

  • As we continue to expand our 5G product portfolio, our design wins are also increasing.

    隨著我們繼續擴展我們的 5G 產品組合,我們的設計勝利也在增加。

  • We now have over 230 5G design wins, launched or in development, up from 150 in the prior quarter, virtually all of which are using our RF front end solutions for 5G sub-6 and/or millimeter wave.

    我們現在有超過 230 項 5G 設計勝出,已推出或正在開發中,高於上一季度的 150 項,幾乎所有這些都使用我們的 5G sub-6 和/或毫米波射頻前端解決方案。

  • Notably, multiple OEMs are now shipping or have announced their second or third 5G device models using both our Snapdragon 5G core chipset and our modem-to-antenna RF front end solution.

    值得注意的是,現在有多家 OEM 正在發貨或宣布了他們的第二個或第三個 5G 設備型號,它們同時使用了我們的 Snapdragon 5G 核心芯片組和我們的調製解調器到天線射頻前端解決方案。

  • In Korea, the migration to 5G continues at a strong pace.

    在韓國,向 5G 的遷移繼續以強勁的速度進行。

  • According to the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT, Korean operators have already signed up 3.5 million 5G subscribers through September, a pace that remains faster than its migration to 4G.

    根據韓國科學和信息通信技術部的數據,截至 9 月,韓國運營商已經簽約了 350 萬 5G 用戶,這一速度仍然快於其向 4G 的遷移。

  • Additionally, 5G millimeter wave services are in planning stages by Korean carriers for calendar 2020.

    此外,韓國運營商正在計劃 2020 年的 5G 毫米波服務。

  • In the United States, Verizon has committed to deploy 5G Ultra Wideband millimeter wave in 30 markets by year-end, and T-Mobile separately announced plans to cover 200 million people with 5G on 600 megahertz before the end of this year.

    在美國,Verizon 已承諾到年底在 30 個市場部署 5G 超寬帶毫米波,T-Mobile 分別宣布計劃在今年年底前用 600 兆赫的 5G 覆蓋 2 億人。

  • And in Europe, there are multiple 5G launches across Switzerland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany.

    在歐洲,瑞士、意大利、英國和德國也推出了多項 5G 服務。

  • In China, all 3 mobile operators commercially launched 5G services last week, bringing 5G to the largest smartphone subscriber base in the world.

    在中國,上週所有 3 家移動運營商都商用推出了 5G 服務,將 5G 帶入了全球最大的智能手機用戶群。

  • We now estimate that by the end of this year, the 3 operators will deploy a total of approximately 130,000 5G base stations.

    我們現在估計,到今年年底,這3家運營商將共部署約13萬個5G基站。

  • We further estimate that by the end of 2020, 5G base station deployments will increase to approximately 1 million, which, to put in context, is 10 times the scale of the entire network of a large U.S. operator.

    我們進一步估計,到 2020 年底,5G 基站部署將增加到約 100 萬個,這是美國大型運營商全網規模的 10 倍。

  • Lastly, TSMC recently attributed the significant increase in demand for their leading technology nodes to a stronger outlook for 5G deployment next year.

    最後,台積電最近將其領先技術節點需求的顯著增長歸因於明年 5G 部署的更強勁前景。

  • This is yet another significant indicator of the 5G ramp into 2020.

    這是 5G 進入 2020 年的又一重要指標。

  • Second priority, to expand our technology platform into adjacent industry segments.

    第二個優先事項,將我們的技術平台擴展到相鄰的行業領域。

  • In automotive, we are very encouraged with the engagement and design win traction we are experiencing from automakers and Tier 1 customers with our telematics and third-generation Snapdragon automotive cockpit solutions.

    在汽車領域,我們對汽車製造商和一級客戶通過我們的遠程信息處理和第三代 Snapdragon 汽車駕駛艙解決方案所獲得的參與和設計贏得牽引力感到非常鼓舞。

  • Our design win pipeline has now increased to almost $6.5 billion, up from $5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into strong growth in auto over the next several years.

    我們的設計贏得渠道現在已從本財年初的 50 億美元增加到近 65 億美元,這讓我們對未來幾年汽車的強勁增長有了很大的了解。

  • Over time, as the technology road map in auto converges with the cellular road map, we expect to see an increased opportunity to lead in new product categories, notably, ADAS.

    隨著時間的推移,隨著汽車技術路線圖與蜂窩路線圖的融合,我們預計在新產品類別(尤其是 ADAS)中領先的機會將會增加。

  • In compute, we continue to build traction in the Windows on Snapdragon, Always On, Always Connected PC category.

    在計算方面,我們繼續在 Windows on Snapdragon、Always On、Always Connected PC 類別中建立牽引力。

  • In August, Samsung announced the Galaxy Book S based on the Snapdragon 8cx.

    8 月,三星發布了基於驍龍 8cx 的 Galaxy Book S。

  • This is Samsung's second Windows on Snapdragon device, and the first announced Snapdragon 8cx Always Connected PC.

    這是三星在 Snapdragon 設備上的第二款 Windows,也是第一款發布的 Snapdragon 8cx Always Connected PC。

  • In October, Microsoft launched the Surface Pro X, our first design with Microsoft in this premium tier, powered by a Snapdragon 8cx variant that is designed for the Always On compute environment, the Microsoft SQ1, developed in partnership with Microsoft.

    10 月,Microsoft 推出了 Surface Pro X,這是我們與 Microsoft 在此高級層中的第一個設計,由與 Microsoft 合作開發的專為 Always On 計算環境 Microsoft SQ1 設計的 Snapdragon 8cx 變體提供支持。

  • This is the thinnest Surface ever and has 3 times the performance per watt as the Surface Pro 6.

    這是有史以來最薄的 Surface,每瓦性能是 Surface Pro 6 的 3 倍。

  • Priority three, drive revenue growth, operating leverage and earnings per share.

    優先事項三,推動收入增長、經營槓桿和每股收益。

  • Consistent with our comments last quarter, we continue to expect a positive inflection point as 5G ramps beginning in our fiscal second quarter.

    與我們上個季度的評論一致,我們繼續預計隨著 5G 在我們第二財季開始的增長將出現一個積極的拐點。

  • With the conclusion of our cost plan and significant share repurchases over the last year, we are poised to deliver margin expansion and outsized growth in earnings and earnings per share as revenue growth accelerates.

    隨著我們成本計劃的完成和去年的大量股票回購,隨著收入增長的加速,我們有望實現利潤率的擴大以及收益和每股收益的大幅增長。

  • We are pleased with the progress we have made over the course of 2019 and believe the business is very well positioned for sustained long-term growth as we benefit from the decisions and investments made over the last several years, including 5G, the return of Apple licensing and product revenues, growth in RF front end and growth in adjacent businesses.

    我們對我們在 2019 年取得的進展感到高興,並相信該業務已為持續長期增長做好準備,因為我們受益於過去幾年做出的決策和投資,包括 5G、Apple 的回歸許可和產品收入、射頻前端的增長以及相關業務的增長。

  • Before I turn the call over to Akash, I'd like to congratulate him on becoming Qualcomm's Chief Financial Officer.

    在我將電話轉給 Akash 之前,我要祝賀他成為高通公司的首席財務官。

  • As QCT Finance Lead for the past 4 years, Akash brings a deep knowledge base of our company, both operationally and strategically.

    作為過去 4 年的 QCT 財務主管,Akash 為我們公司帶來了深厚的運營和戰略知識基礎。

  • I'm looking forward to working closely with Akash as we enter this next chapter of our history.

    當我們進入我們歷史的新篇章時,我期待著與 Akash 密切合作。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

    我現在想把電話轉給 Akash。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家下午好。

  • It is a very exciting time to become Chief Financial Officer of Qualcomm, and I'm looking forward to engaging with our shareholders and analysts.

    成為高通首席財務官是一個非常激動人心的時刻,我期待與我們的股東和分析師進行交流。

  • I will begin with a discussion of our fiscal fourth quarter earnings.

    我將首先討論我們第四財季的收益。

  • We delivered strong results with non-GAAP EPS of $0.78, $0.03 above the high end of our guidance range; and revenues of $4.8 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range.

    我們取得了強勁的業績,非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.78 美元,比我們的指導範圍高端高 0.03 美元;收入為 48 億美元,高於我們指導範圍的中點。

  • The outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by QTL on higher units and stronger mix, resulting in QTL revenues of $1.16 billion and EBITDA margin of 68%.

    本季度的優異表現主要是由 QTL 的更高單位和更強的組合推動的,導致 QTL 收入為 11.6 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 68%。

  • As a reminder, we did not record any royalty revenues from Huawei in our fiscal fourth quarter results.

    提醒一下,我們在第四財季業績中沒有記錄來自華為的任何特許權使用費收入。

  • QCT delivered revenues of $3.6 billion and 152 million MSM chip shipments, in line with our expectations for the quarter.

    QCT 實現了 36 億美元的收入和 1.52 億顆 MSM 芯片出貨量,符合我們對本季度的預期。

  • QCT's EBT margin was approximately 14%, flat sequentially and at the midpoint of our guidance range.

    QCT 的 EBT 利潤率約為 14%,環比持平,處於我們指導範圍的中點。

  • Turning to fiscal 2019.

    轉向2019財年。

  • We recorded $19.4 billion in non-GAAP revenues and $3.54 in non-GAAP earnings per share.

    我們錄得 194 億美元的非 GAAP 收入和 3.54 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益。

  • During the year, we achieved several key milestones that position us favorably for fiscal 2020 and beyond.

    在這一年中,我們實現了幾個關鍵的里程碑,使我們在 2020 財年及以後處於有利地位。

  • First, our early investments in 5G played a key role in accelerating 5G deployments, and we have secured over 230 chipset design wins.

    首先,我們在 5G 方面的早期投資在加速 5G 部署方面發揮了關鍵作用,我們已經獲得了 230 多個芯片組設計勝利。

  • Second, we completed the acquisition of the remaining interest in RF360 Holdings and established a strong design win pipeline for RF front end products across 5G sub-6 and millimeter wave devices.

    其次,我們完成了對 RF360 Holdings 剩餘股權的收購,並為跨 5G sub-6 和毫米波設備的射頻前端產品建立了強大的設計贏得管道。

  • Third, we signed global patent license and multiyear chipset supply agreements with Apple.

    第三,我們與蘋果公司簽署了全球專利許可和多年芯片供應協議。

  • Fourth, we concluded our cost reduction plan announced in January 2018.

    第四,我們完成了 2018 年 1 月公佈的成本削減計劃。

  • And lastly, since our July 2018 announcement, we have completed approximately $23 billion in stock repurchase through fiscal 2019 at an average price of $65 per share, resulting in a 22% reduction of our shares outstanding.

    最後,自 2018 年 7 月宣布以來,我們在 2019 財年完成了大約 230 億美元的股票回購,平均價格為每股 65 美元,導致我們的流通股減少了 22%。

  • Turning to our outlook.

    轉向我們的前景。

  • We are maintaining our estimate of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion units for calendar 2019 for global 3G, 4G, 5G device forecast.

    我們維持對 2019 年全球 3G、4G、5G 設備預測的 17 億至 18 億台的估計。

  • For calendar 2020, we are estimating 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion units, up approximately 3% at the midpoint, reflecting flat handsets and low double-digit growth in nonhandsets.

    對於 2020 年日曆,我們估計 17.5 億至 18.5 億部,中點增長約 3%,反映出平板手機和非手機的兩位數低增長。

  • We are estimating 175 million to 225 million 5G handset units in calendar 2020.

    我們預計 2020 年將有 1.75 億至 2.25 億部 5G 手機。

  • Consistent with our comments on our previous earnings call, our business outlook is impacted by several factors, including weaker demand in China and certain developed regions, Huawei's share gain in China and OEMs managing 4G inventory ahead of the transition to 5G.

    與我們對之前財報電話會議的評論一致,我們的業務前景受到多個因素的影響,包括中國和某些發達地區的需求疲軟、華為在中國的份額增長以及 OEM 在向 5G 過渡之前管理 4G 庫存。

  • Turning to our first quarter guidance for fiscal 2020.

    轉向我們對 2020 財年第一季度的指導。

  • We expect revenues to be in the range of $4.4 billion to $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 to $0.90.

    我們預計收入將在 44 億美元至 52 億美元之間,非公認會計準則每股收益為 0.80 美元至 0.90 美元。

  • We estimate fiscal first quarter QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and EBITDA margin of 70% to 74%.

    我們估計第一財季 QTL 收入在 13 億美元至 15 億美元之間,EBITDA 利潤率為 70% 至 74%。

  • We expect QTL revenues to be up 21% sequentially at the midpoint in our fiscal first quarter due to normal holiday seasonality, driven by timing of flagship phone launches.

    我們預計 QTL 收入將在我們第一財季的中點環比增長 21%,原因是正常的假日季節性,受旗艦手機發佈時間的推動。

  • Our fiscal first quarter forecast does not include any royalty revenues from Huawei while we continue to pursue a negotiated resolution of the licensing dispute.

    我們的第一財季預測不包括華為的任何特許權使用費收入,同時我們繼續尋求通過談判解決許可糾紛。

  • With the completion of the global patent license agreement with Apple earlier this year, QTL revenues will begin to reflect a seasonally high fiscal first quarter.

    隨著今年早些時候與蘋果公司完成全球專利許可協議,QTL 收入將開始反映第一財季的季節性高位。

  • Following this seasonal uplift, we expect QTL revenues to return to a range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion in our fiscal second quarter.

    在這一季節性增長之後,我們預計 QTL 收入將在第二財季恢復到 10 億至 12 億美元的範圍內。

  • In QCT, we estimate fiscal first quarter MSM shipments of 145 million to 165 million units and EBITDA margin in the range of 10% to 12%.

    在 QCT,我們估計第一季度 MSM 出貨量為 1.45 億至 1.65 億台,EBITDA 利潤率在 10% 至 12% 之間。

  • QCT's EBITDA margin guidance reflects lower volume in the premium and high tiers, driven by a pause ahead of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020, and the normal timing of handset launches by our customers in these tiers.

    QCT 的 EBITDA 利潤率指引反映了高端和高端產品的銷量下降,這是由於 2020 年初向 5G 過渡之前的暫停,以及我們在這些層次的客戶推出手機的正常時間。

  • As we'll -- beyond our fiscal first quarter, we see a significant inflection point for QCT as we expect to realize the benefits from the ramp of 5G handset launches.

    正如我們將 - 在我們的第一財季之後,我們看到 QCT 的一個重要轉折點,因為我們希望實現 5G 手機推出的好處。

  • In the fiscal second quarter, we anticipate QCT revenues to grow in the mid-teens sequentially and QCT EBT margin to return to the mid-teens.

    在第二財季,我們預計 QCT 收入將連續增長在十幾歲左右,QCT EBT 利潤率將回到十幾歲左右。

  • In our fiscal first quarter, we expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be flat to down 2% sequentially.

    在我們的第一財季,我們預計非美國通用會計準則的研發和 SG&A 總費用將持平至環比下降 2%。

  • As a reminder, expenses are typically higher in our fiscal second quarter as it includes the normal calendar resets for certain employee-related costs.

    提醒一下,我們第二財季的費用通常會更高,因為它包括某些與員工相關的成本的正常日曆重置。

  • Interest expense, net of investment and other income, in the fiscal first quarter is expected to be approximately $100 million and is a reasonable estimate for each of the remaining quarters in fiscal 2020.

    第一財季的利息支出(扣除投資和其他收入)預計約為 1 億美元,是 2020 財年剩餘每個季度的合理估計。

  • For our fiscal first quarter, we also estimate approximately 1.16 billion weighted average shares outstanding and a tax rate of 14%.

    對於我們的第一財季,我們還估計約 11.6 億股加權平均流通股和 14% 的稅率。

  • Looking forward, 2020 is an exciting year for Qualcomm as we expect the financial upside of our 5G strategy to begin to play out with multiple drivers of non-GAAP revenue and earnings growth, including the launch of 5G devices, RF front end design win traction, growth in adjacencies, combined with operating leverage and a substantially reduced share count.

    展望未來,2020 年對 Qualcomm 來說是激動人心的一年,因為我們預計 5G 戰略的財務優勢將開始發揮多重推動非 GAAP 收入和盈利增長的作用,包括推出 5G 設備、RF 前端設計贏得牽引力,鄰接的增長,加上經營槓桿和大幅減少的股份數量。

  • We look forward to seeing you in New York at our Analyst Day on November 19, where we will be providing additional details about our long-term growth strategy.

    我們期待在 11 月 19 日的分析師日與您在紐約相見,屆時我們將提供有關我們長期增長戰略的更多詳細信息。

  • Thank you, and I will now turn the call back over to Mauricio.

    謝謝,我現在將電話轉回毛里西奧。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Akash.

    謝謝你,阿卡什。

  • Operator, we are ready for questions.

    接線員,我們準備好提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • I guess first question would be on the pace of the 5G ramp as you proceed through the fiscal year.

    我想第一個問題是隨著您整個財年的推進,5G 的步伐會加快。

  • You've given some indications on where you expect overall revenue to be.

    你已經給出了一些關於你期望總收入在哪裡的跡象。

  • If you could talk about that in percentage terms of 5G as a percentage of the mix as it goes through the year, even on revenue terms or MSM terms, whatever you could do to give us some sense of how 5G penetrates as the year goes on.

    如果你可以用 5G 佔全年組合的百分比來談論這一點,即使是在收入方面或 MSM 方面,無論你能做些什麼來讓我們了解 5G 如何隨著時間的推移而滲透.

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thanks, Chris.

    謝謝,克里斯。

  • This is Cristiano.

    這是克里斯蒂亞諾。

  • Consistent, I think, with what we just said in the earnings call.

    我認為與我們剛剛在財報電話會議上所說的一致。

  • I think timing, our fiscal Q2, is that we started to see the inflection point as the devices started to show up in volumes.

    我認為時機,我們的第二財季,是我們開始看到拐點,因為設備開始大量出現。

  • And overall, I think mix.

    總的來說,我認為混合。

  • We expect that to be ramping in the high, in the premium tier, in some of the markets that we're seeing launching 5G.

    我們預計,在我們看到的一些推出 5G 的市場中,這將在高端、高端市場中加速發展。

  • Within that, we provide a metric before that we will see probably 1.5x the ASP as we look at higher content for both the modem as well as the front end.

    在那之前,我們提供了一個指標,當我們查看調製解調器和前端的更高內容時,我們可能會看到 ASP 的 1.5 倍。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And as a follow-on for that, maybe you could give us some commentary on how that impacts QCT margins as the year progresses.

    作為對此的後續,也許你可以給我們一些評論,說明隨著時間的推移,這將如何影響 QCT 利潤率。

  • Obviously, you've got that additional content.

    顯然,您已經獲得了額外的內容。

  • The margins are depressed as you're making the transition now.

    當您現在進行過渡時,利潤率會下降。

  • What should we expect as the year goes on, on those QCT margins?

    隨著時間的推移,在這些 QCT 利潤率上,我們應該期待什麼?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Chris, this is Akash.

    克里斯,這是阿卡什。

  • The way you should think about the year playing out for QCT with 5G is, really, there's going to be 2 inflection points in the chip business.

    QCT 與 5G 合作的一年,你應該考慮的方式是,芯片業務將出現 2 個拐點。

  • The first inflection point will be flagship launches in early 2020 by both our global and Chinese OEMs, and you should think of it that RMB 3,000 and above handsets will start adopting 5G.

    第一個拐點將是2020年初我們全球和中國OEM的旗艦產品發布,你應該想到3000元及以上的手機將開始採用5G。

  • The second inflection point will be in the fall time frame when another set of flagship devices will adopt 5G.

    第二個拐點將在另一組旗艦設備採用 5G 的下降時間框架內。

  • So that should be kind of the shape of 5G adoption through the year.

    所以這應該是全年採用 5G 的形式。

  • And how this translates into margin is we gave guidance for our second quarter margin.

    這如何轉化為利潤率是我們為第二季度的利潤率提供了指導。

  • We are expecting from first to second quarter, revenue will go up mid-teens, and operating margins will also be in the mid-teens range in the second quarter.

    我們預計從第一季度到第二季度,收入將增長十幾歲,第二季度的營業利潤率也將在十幾歲左右。

  • We are not guiding longer-term margins at this point, but we'll talk about it at Analyst Day as well.

    我們目前沒有指導長期利潤率,但我們也會在分析師日討論它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

  • James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

    James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

  • I wanted to ask kind of a follow-up to that.

    我想問一個後續行動。

  • And maybe, Cristiano, you can talk about where you see Qualcomm -- where it's particularly strong position in terms of like if we look at flagships down through the different tiers of phones, where -- you've talked a lot about design wins.

    也許,克里斯蒂亞諾,你可以談談你在哪裡看到高通——如果我們通過不同級別的手機查看旗艦,它在哪里特別強大,你已經談到了很多關於設計勝利的話題。

  • But where should we expect you to show up most strongly versus where it may be or be a bit more variety of suppliers?

    但是,我們應該期望您在哪裡出現最強烈的表現,而不是可能出現或更多種類的供應商?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thanks for the question, James.

    謝謝你的問題,詹姆斯。

  • We updated our design pipeline.

    我們更新了我們的設計流程。

  • The design pipeline is about now 230-plus 5G devices across now multiple tiers.

    設計管道現在大約有 230 多個 5G 設備,跨越現在多個層。

  • It's up substantially since 6 months ago.

    自 6 個月前以來,它已大幅上漲。

  • And I'll answer your question 2 ways.

    我會以兩種方式回答你的問題。

  • First, I think it's been very clear that our early investment in millimeter-wave has provided Qualcomm with a significant technology advantage in having the technology to maturity.

    首先,我認為很明顯,我們對毫米波的早期投資為高通提供了使技術成熟的顯著技術優勢。

  • And we're optimistic about millimeter wave going from the United States initial launches into Korea, in Japan, in other markets, including being licensed already in Europe.

    我們對毫米波從美國首次發射到韓國、日本和其他市場持樂觀態度,包括已經在歐洲獲得許可。

  • Telecom Italia was the first one, happening throughout 2020.

    意大利電信是第一個,發生在整個 2020 年。

  • That's a very good thing for Qualcomm.

    這對高通來說是一件非常好的事情。

  • Having said that, I would probably say that every single launch of a flagship OEM today, with exception of Huawei, they use their own silicon, every other launch of every other OEM has been a Qualcomm Snapdragon platform.

    話雖如此,我可能會說今天旗艦 OEM 的每一次發布,除了華為,他們都使用自己的芯片,其他所有 OEM 的每一次發布都是高通 Snapdragon 平台。

  • And that position us very well about -- partner with OEMs for 5G ramp, including Samsung, which we have not only launched with the traditional markets but also, I point you to the A series, which is the second-tier below the flagship that's been launching with Qualcomm globally in addition to the Galaxy Fold.

    這對我們來說非常有利——與包括三星在內的 5G 原始設備製造商合作,我們不僅在傳統市場推出了這款產品,而且我還指出了 A 系列,它是低於旗艦產品的二線產品。除了 Galaxy Fold 之外,它還在全球範圍內與高通合作推出。

  • So those are positive things as we think 5G transition for Qualcomm.

    所以這些都是積極的事情,因為我們認為高通的 5G 過渡。

  • James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

    James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And then a follow-up question, maybe for Steve and Don.

    然後是一個後續問題,可能是針對史蒂夫和唐的。

  • You mentioned that you're in ongoing negotiations with Huawei but haven't reached any agreement as of yet.

    您提到您正在與華為進行談判,但尚未達成任何協議。

  • How do you think -- or what needs to happen to move an agreement across the line?

    你怎麼看——或者說需要做什麼才能讓協議跨界?

  • And are we going to -- I guess, I'm wondering how China-U.

    我們會不會——我想,我想知道中美如何。

  • S. trade relations and potential resolution or at least a trade agreement may factor in to those negotiations and conversations with Huawei.

    美國的貿易關係和潛在解決方案或至少一項貿易協議可能會成為與華為的談判和對話的因素。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • James, it's Steve.

    詹姆斯,是史蒂夫。

  • So we continue to talk to Huawei.

    因此,我們繼續與華為交談。

  • I would characterize the discussions is ongoing, but really nothing to report on.

    我認為討論正在進行中,但實際上沒有什麼可報告的。

  • Obviously, we don't have the numbers.

    顯然,我們沒有數字。

  • We don't have any revenue in the numbers right now for licensing revenue.

    我們目前在許可收入方面沒有任何收入。

  • In terms of how the trade discussions between the 2 countries impact the probability or chance that we can get a resolution, I think it's too early to tell.

    至於兩國之間的貿易討論如何影響我們獲得解決方案的可能性或機會,我認為現在說還為時過早。

  • I think it's pretty opaque at the moment.

    我認為目前它非常不透明。

  • It's good that we're talking, but there's really nothing to report on right now.

    我們正在談論這很好,但現在真的沒有什麼可報告的。

  • And you know that the product business for us is actually quite small.

    而且您知道我們的產品業務實際上很小。

  • We tend to be a little bit more insulated, I think, from the trade talks compared to maybe other companies.

    我認為,與其他公司相比,我們往往更不受貿易談判的影響。

  • But too early to tell in terms of what it will mean to the licensing discussions.

    但要說這對許可討論意味著什麼還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • I just wanted to start off, firstly, on the -- focusing a bit on the RF front end opportunity.

    我只是想開始,首先,關註一下射頻前端的機會。

  • You mentioned that most of the design wins you're seeing kind of would be more than on the RF front end go together.

    您提到,您看到的大多數設計勝利都不僅僅是射頻前端的結合。

  • So I just wanted to kind of get your thoughts about how you're thinking about market share in RF front end and the early generation 5G phones relative to some of the incumbents in the space and then how should we think about sustaining that market share in kind of the second-generation, cogeneration, 5G phones.

    因此,我只是想了解一下您如何看待射頻前端和早期 5G 手機相對於該領域的一些現有企業的市場份額,然後我們應該如何考慮維持該市場份額那種第二代,熱電聯產,5G手機。

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個跟進。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的問題。

  • So we look at 5G as the key entry point for RF front end business, and we're very satisfied with the ability as we started to look into the designs with the 5G content, which are specifically sub-6 spectrum as well as millimeter-wave spectrum.

    因此,我們將 5G 視為 RF 前端業務的關鍵切入點,當我們開始研究具有 5G 內容的設計時,我們對這種能力非常滿意,特別是 sub-6 頻譜以及毫米-波譜。

  • We actually have seen a very high percentage.

    我們實際上已經看到了非常高的百分比。

  • Virtually, all of the 230-plus designs now for 5G content have Qualcomm modem-to-antenna design.

    實際上,現在所有 230 多種 5G 內容設計都採用了高通調製解調器到天線的設計。

  • We have seen in those devices, some of our existing incumbents continue to support and provide content for 4G, but the 5G position of Qualcomm is very strong.

    我們在這些設備中看到,我們現有的一些老牌廠商繼續支持並為 4G 提供內容,但高通在 5G 方面的地位非常強大。

  • What we're very happy, especially at this time as we head into the Q2 ramp of 5G, we see now as we go into second-generation designs for the second-generation devices, as well lower tiers, we have maintained that pattern.

    我們非常高興,尤其是在我們進入第二季度 5G 斜坡的時候,我們現在看到,當我們進入第二代設備的第二代設計以及更低層時,我們一直保持這種模式。

  • So we're now going into design #2 and design #3 that maintain the 5G content on the RF front end, and we're very happy with that development.

    因此,我們現在進入設計#2 和設計#3,以在射頻前端保持 5G 內容,我們對這一發展非常滿意。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • If I can just follow-up.

    如果我可以跟進。

  • You've talked extensively about the opportunity on 5G handsets.

    您已經廣泛討論了 5G 手機的機會。

  • If you can help me quantify the revenue opportunity outside of handsets, be it like small cells or IoT that is also tied to a 5G opportunity but outside of handsets.

    如果你能幫助我量化手機之外的收入機會,無論是小型蜂窩還是物聯網,它們也與 5G 機會相關,但在手機之外。

  • Just looking for some color there.

    只是在那裡尋找一些顏色。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So let me give you the first part of the answer, and I'll ask Akash to add.

    所以讓我給你答案的第一部分,我會請阿卡什補充。

  • Devices and smartphones are definitely going to be the vast majority of the earnings, especially as we head in 2020 as how 5G is going to ramp.

    設備和智能手機肯定會成為收入的絕大部分,尤其是在 2020 年 5G 將如何發展之際。

  • However, we are happy about the 5G traction in all of our adjacents from upgrade of telematics in automotive to 5G.

    但是,我們對從汽車遠程信息處理升級到 5G 的所有鄰國的 5G 牽引力感到高興。

  • We've seen a lot of industrial IoT applications.

    我們已經看到了很多工業物聯網應用。

  • And even our small cell business is getting traction, including with traditional infrastructure vendors.

    甚至我們的小型蜂窩業務也越來越受歡迎,包括傳統基礎設施供應商。

  • So we expect that to be a growth story in -- as we head into 2021 and '22.

    因此,隨著我們進入 2021 年和 22 年,我們預計這將成為一個增長故事。

  • In '20, the one that I want to single out is CPE for mobile broadband, and that's part of a lot of the carriers' deployment of 5G in fixed wireless.

    在 20 年,我要特別指出的是用於移動寬帶的 CPE,這是許多運營商在固定無線中部署 5G 的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Congrats on the strong results and 5G color.

    祝賀強勁的結果和 5G 色彩。

  • I just wanted to see about the seasonality in the QCT side.

    我只是想看看 QCT 方面的季節性。

  • Steve -- or QTL side, excuse me.

    史蒂夫——或者 QTL 方面,對不起。

  • Steve, you mentioned that you were happy it was returning to a seasonal pattern.

    史蒂夫,你提到你很高興它恢復了季節性模式。

  • You talked a little bit, I think, Akash, about what it was going to do in the fiscal second quarter.

    我想,阿卡什,你談到了第二財季的計劃。

  • Can you just talk about the seasonality of that?

    你能談談它的季節性嗎?

  • Is the range that you've given in the past of kind of the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, is that the new range in kind of the weak quarters and the stronger quarters to be closer to the $1.4 million you just did?

    你過去給出的範圍是 11 億美元到 12 億美元嗎,新的範圍是弱季度和強季度更接近你剛剛所做的 140 萬美元嗎?

  • Or how should we think about that as the year progresses?

    或者隨著時間的推移,我們應該如何看待這一點?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Ross.

    是的,羅斯。

  • This is Akash.

    這是阿卡什。

  • I think that's a fair way of thinking about it.

    我認為這是一種公平的思考方式。

  • We just reported actuals for the September quarter at $1.16 billion, and we're guiding the December quarter at the midpoint of $1.4 billion and the March quarter at $1.1 billion.

    我們剛剛報告了 9 月季度的實際數據為 11.6 億美元,我們將 12 月季度的中點指導為 14 億美元,將 3 月的季度指導為 11 億美元。

  • So that kind of gives you a sense of the seasonality in the business, and those are fair numbers to use to project the business going forward.

    因此,這種方式可以讓您了解業務的季節性,這些是用於預測未來業務的合理數字。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And as my follow-up, perhaps one for Cristiano on the revenue for MSM side of things.

    作為我的後續行動,也許是克里斯蒂亞諾關於 MSM 方面收入的一個。

  • Just would hope to get a little more color on why is that going down sequentially in your fiscal first quarter guide.

    只是希望在您的第一財政季度指南中獲得更多關於為什麼會按順序下降的顏色。

  • And then perhaps, more importantly, it seems like it's up very nicely, almost 12% year-over-year in fiscal '19.

    然後也許,更重要的是,它看起來非常好,在 19 財年同比增長近 12%。

  • And still -- despite that sequential decline in your fiscal first quarter, still up, the better part of 10% there.

    而且 - 儘管您的第一財季連續下降,但仍然上升,其中大部分是 10%。

  • I was wondering, what's driving the sequential decline, the year-over-year increases?

    我想知道,是什麼推動了連續下降,同比增長?

  • And then if that's all pre-5G, how should we think about the lift off of this level?

    如果這都是 5G 之前的情況,我們應該如何看待這一水平的提升?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • All right, Ross.

    好吧,羅斯。

  • So our ASP for MSM has a very high sensitivity to high and premium tiers.

    因此,我們針對 MSM 的 ASP 對高級和優質層具有非常高的敏感性。

  • And as -- if you look at what happened in the quarter and the guide for the next one, I think consistent with what we said on the last earnings call that we're going to see the dynamic throughout the calendar year.

    而且 - 如果您查看本季度發生的事情和下一季度的指南,我認為與我們在上次財報電話會議上所說的一致,我們將在整個日曆年中看到動態。

  • We have some weaker market, weaker demand in China.

    我們有一些疲軟的市場,中國的需求疲軟。

  • And that, combined with Huawei gaining share in domestic China as well.

    再加上華為在中國國內也獲得了份額。

  • That's one dynamic.

    這是一種動態。

  • The other dynamic is OEMs cancel some of the 4G flagships and move their portfolio towards 5G, getting ahead of the launch.

    另一個動態是 OEM 取消了一些 4G 旗艦產品,並將其產品組合轉向 5G,提前推出。

  • So that creates basically a change in the composition of the MSM because of the high and premium tier units as we go to that transition.

    因此,這基本上會導致 MSM 的組成發生變化,因為隨著我們進行過渡,高級和優質的單位。

  • However, the inflection point for Q2 is where you started to see the effect.

    但是,第二季度的拐點是您開始看到效果的地方。

  • When we talk about it, the 1.5x.

    當我們談論它時,1.5x。

  • If anything, the guide that we provided in Q2, contemplates the current market environment, the typical seasonality of our business, no significant changes in OEM share and does not include yet the ramp of the Apple business, you'll see that change just with the 1.5, which in average has higher ASP content on the modem plus the RF front end.

    如果有的話,我們在第二季度提供的指南考慮了當前的市場環境,我們業務的典型季節性,OEM 份額沒有顯著變化,並且還沒有包括蘋果業務的增長,你會看到這種變化只是1.5,平均而言,調製解調器和射頻前端的 ASP 內容更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Congratulations, Akash.

    恭喜,阿卡什。

  • I guess, Steve, my first question is around the 5G unit numbers that you gave for calendar '20.

    我想,史蒂夫,我的第一個問題是關於你為 20 年日曆提供的 5G 單元編號。

  • I guess the midpoint that you guys have laid out is 200 million units.

    我猜你們佈置的中點是2億台。

  • Maybe you could give a little color on what you're assuming the geographic mix of those units is.

    也許你可以對你假設這些單位的地理組合給出一點顏色。

  • In particular, what percentage might be China versus rest of world?

    特別是,中國與世界其他地區的比例可能是多少?

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個跟進。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Matt, this is Akash.

    馬特,這是阿卡什。

  • So the way we thought about the 5G forecast for 2020 is a couple of ways.

    因此,我們對 2020 年 5G 預測的思考方式有多種。

  • We looked at the tops-down of how transitions have typically happened in previous generations.

    我們自上而下地研究了前幾代人通常如何發生轉變。

  • And the 2 things that are different with 5G versus transition from 3G to 4G is China is adopting 5G at the same time as the other geographies versus in 4G, they were a couple of years late.

    5G 與從 3G 向 4G 過渡的兩個不同之處在於,中國與其他地區同時採用 5G 與 4G 相比,它們晚了幾年。

  • And then also, within 5G, we're seeing multiple tiers of products being launched simultaneously, which we did not have for 4G.

    此外,在 5G 中,我們看到同時推出多層產品,這是 4G 所沒有的。

  • So that's why we think the intensity of the 5G rollout is actually faster.

    這就是為什麼我們認為 5G 部署的強度實際上更快。

  • And you have China as a big portion of it happening already in the life cycle.

    而且中國已經在生命週期中發生了很大一部分。

  • Of course, in addition to that, we're obviously talking to all of our OEM customers, and we have a very good sense of how many devices they are planning to launch over the next several months with 5G and at what price points, and that also allows us to inform our tops-down forecast.

    當然,除此之外,我們顯然正在與我們所有的 OEM 客戶交談,我們非常清楚他們計劃在未來幾個月內推出多少台 5G 設備以及價格點,以及這也使我們能夠為自上而下的預測提供信息。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • That's really helpful.

    這真的很有幫助。

  • As my follow-up, a quick one for Alex on the licensing agreements.

    作為我的後續,Alex 快速了解許可協議。

  • And obviously, we're all encouraged to see the progress you've made on 5G.

    顯然,看到你們在 5G 方面取得的進展,我們都受到鼓舞。

  • There's also been this dynamic of SEP-only licenses become a bigger piece of the mix and some implications for the implied royalty rate.

    僅標準必要專利許可的這種動態也成為了更大的組成部分,並對隱含的特許權使用費產生了一些影響。

  • I know that moves around a bit.

    我知道這有點移動。

  • But I think you guys talked about in an answer to an earlier question about how to model the QTL business going forward.

    但我認為你們在回答之前的一個問題時談到瞭如何對 QTL 業務進行建模。

  • I wonder if we're now at relative steady state for an implied royalty rates as we go forward.

    我想知道隨著我們的發展,我們現在是否處於隱含特許權使用費率的相對穩定狀態。

  • Any comments there would be helpful.

    那裡的任何評論都會有所幫助。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • So I think that may be a fair way to look at it.

    所以我認為這可能是一個公平的看待它的方式。

  • But I think what -- the way you should look at it for guidance is we're guiding revenue.

    但我認為 - 你應該以指導方式看待它的是我們正在指導收入。

  • And so as we noted, we're going to see seasonality, and we're going to see the remaining quarters at the range that we identified.

    正如我們所指出的,我們將看到季節性,我們將看到我們確定的範圍內的剩餘季度。

  • And of course, that's without the Huawei numbers.

    當然,這還沒有華為的數字。

  • But we have made really good progress with signing up 5G agreements.

    但我們在簽署 5G 協議方面取得了非常好的進展。

  • We have over 75 agreements now in place since we started our 5G licensing program.

    自從我們啟動 5G 許可計劃以來,我們已經簽署了超過 75 項協議。

  • So I think that reflects a very strong IP position.

    所以我認為這反映了一個非常強大的知識產權地位。

  • But I think, again, if you look to our guidance on revenue, that's probably the easiest way to think about it.

    但我再次認為,如果您查看我們的收入指南,這可能是最簡單的思考方式。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Matt, this is Akash.

    還有馬特,這是阿卡什。

  • Just a quick reminder that our revenue guidance numbers does not include Huawei.

    快速提醒一下,我們的收入指導數字不包括華為。

  • So as that gets resolved, that would be incremental to the range.

    因此,隨著問題的解決,這將增加範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • On the March quarter QCT guide, so units in March quarter for MSM units are typically down seasonally.

    在 3 月季度 QCT 指南中,MSM 單位的 3 月季度單位通常會季節性下降。

  • You're obviously guiding revenues up mid-teens on the 5G ramp.

    顯然,您在 5G 坡道上將收入引導至十幾歲。

  • So is that all or even maybe more than 100% due to increases in revenue per MSM?

    那麼,由於每個 MSM 收入的增加,這是否全部甚至可能超過 100%?

  • Like, is it that the 5G ramp itself in content is enough to offset the normal seasonal decline in unit shipments?

    比如,5G 內容的提升本身是否足以抵消單位出貨量的正常季節性下降?

  • Or are you seeing kind of like an ending of the flush that we've been having and maybe a reversal with some fills as the new products get in?

    或者你是否看到了我們一直在經歷的同花順的結束,或者隨著新產品的進入而出現一些填充的逆轉?

  • How do we think about that, that unit versus ASP trend in that -- embedded in that March quarter revenue guide for chipsets?

    我們如何看待這一點,該單位與 ASP 趨勢的對比——嵌入在芯片組的 3 月季度收入指南中?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Stacy.

    是的,斯泰西。

  • So there are a couple of factors.

    所以有幾個因素。

  • This is Akash, by the way.

    順便說一下,這是阿卡什。

  • There are a couple of factors that affect our second quarter numbers for units and ASP.

    有幾個因素會影響我們第二季度的單位數和 ASP。

  • You're correct about the seasonally lower quarter, but that is also offset by a stronger mix because we launched our new premium tier chip and new high tier chip during that quarter as well.

    您對季節性較低的季度是正確的,但這也被更強勁的組合所抵消,因為我們也在該季度推出了新的高端芯片和新的高端芯片。

  • So there is a mixed implication before we get to the 5G benefit.

    因此,在我們獲得 5G 的好處之前,有一個複雜的含義。

  • And then the third factor is our -- what we have disclosed previously, which is with 5G devices on a like-for-like device basis, we expect 1.5x monetization as a combination of the chipset and the RF front end revenue on top of it.

    然後第三個因素是我們——我們之前披露的,即在同類設備的基礎上使用 5G 設備,我們預計將 1.5 倍的貨幣化作為芯片組和射頻前端收入的組合。它。

  • So those are kind of the 3 factors that impact the volume and price revenue per MSM mix in the quarter.

    因此,這些是影響本季度每個 MSM 組合的數量和價格收入的 3 個因素。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • And maybe to follow-up on that.

    也許會跟進。

  • So you mentioned 1.5x content increase.

    所以你提到了 1.5 倍的內容增加。

  • But at the same time, you also meant multiple tiers launching simultaneously, which is something that we didn't really see in 4G.

    但與此同時,你也意味著多個層級同時啟動,這是我們在 4G 中沒有真正看到的。

  • So how do we think about that, I guess, that differential of those drivers on content increase overall versus the general mix of tiers that are launching?

    那麼,我想,我們如何看待這些驅動因素在內容上的差異總體上與正在發布的層級的總體組合相比有所增加?

  • And do you think that is enough to keep revenue per MSM rising through 2020 -- through fiscal 2020 as 5G becomes more mainstream?

    你認為這是否足以讓每 MSM 的收入在 2020 年(隨著 5G 變得更加主流)到 2020 財年保持增長?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So the way we think about the 1.5x is really for a given tier device.

    因此,我們考慮 1.5x 的方式實際上是針對給定層設備的。

  • So comparing a premium tier to a premium tier device when you go from 5G -- 4G to 5G, the revenue opportunity increases by 1.5x, and this would also apply to the tiers as it penetrates further down.

    因此,當您從 5G - 4G 升級到 5G 時,將高級設備與高級設備進行比較,收入機會增加了 1.5 倍,這也適用於進一步向下滲透的設備。

  • And so you should think of that as a mechanism of modeling our business as the mix improves from 4G to 5G.

    因此,隨著混合從 4G 升級到 5G,您應該將其視為一種對我們的業務進行建模的機制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mitch Steves。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • I actually just want to focus a little bit back just on the pricing you guys are getting.

    實際上,我只是想稍微關註一下你們所獲得的價格。

  • So I realize it could be down a little bit in December quarter.

    所以我意識到它可能會在 12 月季度有所下降。

  • But so 2 really clarifications.

    但是有兩個真正的澄清。

  • If Huawei does come back, would you get an implied ASP that goes up or down?

    如果華為真的回來了,你會得到一個上升或下降的隱含 ASP 嗎?

  • And then secondly, how do we think about that kind of ramping over the next 12 months?

    其次,我們如何看待未來 12 個月的這種增長?

  • I mean, I think most models have it going up a few dollars, but is that right or do you guys see that need to be changed after seeing the mix come through?

    我的意思是,我認為大多數型號的價格都會上漲幾美元,但這是對的,還是你們認為在看到混合後需要改變?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • So this is Alex.

    這就是亞歷克斯。

  • You're asking about the -- on the licensing side?

    你問的是——在許可方面?

  • Or...

    或者...

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Look, again, the way we think about it is that -- Akash maybe will weigh in here.

    再看一遍,我們的想法是——Akash 可能會在這裡權衡。

  • The way we think about it is that Huawei is incremental, and I'm not sure what more to say to that other than what we've already provided by way of guide.

    我們認為華為是漸進的,除了我們已經通過指南提供的內容之外,我不知道還能說什麼。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I guess maybe we return to the hallway piece that if that comes back, is that -- are you going to be increasing ASPs?

    我想也許我們回到走廊上,如果這回來了,那是 - 你會增加 ASP 嗎?

  • Or do you think that the ASP should be flattish or similar?

    或者您認為 ASP 應該是平坦的還是類似的?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • The way -- this is Akash, Mitch.

    方式——這是阿卡什,米奇。

  • The way you should think about Huawei is we don't have Huawei units or revenue contemplated in the QTL guide at this point.

    您應該考慮華為的方式是,我們目前在 QTL 指南中沒有考慮華為的單位或收入。

  • So when Huawei gets included into the guide, it would be based on what their device ASP is and our licensing deal with them.

    因此,當華為被納入指南時,它將基於他們的設備 ASP 是什麼以及我們與他們的許可協議。

  • So it will just fall out of the agreement that we end up having with Huawei.

    所以它只會脫離我們最終與華為達成的協議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • I wanted to just go back to the progress of 5G and particularly, millimeter wave, Akash.

    我想回到 5G 的進展,特別是毫米波 Akash。

  • And I wonder, Cristiano, if you could talk a little bit about of the 230 wins -- or maybe, Steve, you want to address this.

    我想知道,克里斯蒂亞諾,你能否談談 230 場胜利——或者,史蒂夫,你想解決這個問題。

  • How many of those have millimeter wave attached to them or at least some version of them?

    其中有多少帶有毫米波或至少是其中的某個版本?

  • And then as we get to the flagship launch at the beginning of next year, proportionally, how does it look?

    然後當我們在明年年初推出旗艦產品時,按比例來說,它看起來如何?

  • And then as we get to the end of next year, how does that look?

    然後當我們到明年年底時,情況如何?

  • Do we get to most phones by the end of next year, having millimeter wave attach or some smaller proportion?

    我們是否會在明年年底之前獲得大多數手機,具有毫米波附件或一些較小的比例?

  • Could you just walk us through that?

    你能帶我們過去嗎?

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個跟進。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Rod, thanks for the question.

    羅德,謝謝你的提問。

  • So the way to think about it, it's pretty much at this point by market.

    所以考慮它的方式,這幾乎是在這一點上的市場。

  • For example, the United States market, all of the devices they have launched, there is a requirement for millimeter wave that is expected to utilize by all of the -- 3 of the 4 carriers right now.

    例如,美國市場,他們推出的所有設備都需要毫米波,預計目前 4 家運營商中的 3 家都將使用毫米波。

  • And therefore, we have seen the initial launches of millimeter wave going into 2020.

    因此,我們已經看到毫米波的首次發射進入 2020 年。

  • The current planning assumption is you're going to start to see millimeter wave also coming in the Korea market.

    目前的計劃假設是您將開始看到毫米波也將進入韓國市場。

  • It's going to come into the Japan market.

    它將進入日本市場。

  • And the later part of '20 and beginning 2021, you start to see that in Europe.

    20 年後期和 2021 年開始,你開始在歐洲看到這一點。

  • And that's how it's going to change the mix.

    這就是它將如何改變組合。

  • So right now, you should look at some of the China launches that we're going to see in '20.

    所以現在,你應該看看我們將在 20 年看到的一些中國發射。

  • There are going to be sub-6.

    會有sub-6。

  • And Europe in '20, the first half will be sub-6.

    而在 20 年的歐洲,上半年將分 6 分。

  • Japan, Korea and the United States are going to have millimeter wave.

    日本、韓國和美國將有毫米波。

  • That's how to think about it.

    就是這樣想的。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • And is it your -- Cristiano, just to follow that up.

    是你的 - 克里斯蒂亞諾,只是為了跟進。

  • Is it your assumption then or our assumption should be that every market that has millimeter wave deployed in the wireless network, you would expect to see millimeter wave attached to most phones in that market?

    是您當時的假設還是我們的假設應該是在無線網絡中部署了毫米波的每個市場,您都希望看到毫米波連接到該市場的大多數手機?

  • Is that correct?

    那是對的嗎?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • And especially because you have -- in the wireless industry today, you have probably a single SKU launched by an operator within their entire geography, even if you're going to have some markets with millimeter wave, some markets with sub-6.

    特別是因為你有 - 在今天的無線行業,你可能有一個運營商在其整個地理範圍內推出的單個 SKU,即使你將擁有一些毫米波市場,一些市場低於 6。

  • That has been the requirement of millimeter wave capability in many of those devices.

    這就是許多此類設備對毫米波能力的要求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess to follow-up on the last question.

    我想跟進最後一個問題。

  • As you think about the 200 million 5G unit market plus or minus, in 2020, what percentage do you believe will have millimeter wave?

    當您考慮 2 億個 5G 單位市場正負時,您認為 2020 年將有百分之幾的毫米波?

  • And then as part of that question, can you kind of talk through the attach rate that you're seeing on RF front end for you guys at sub-6 versus millimeter wave?

    然後作為該問題的一部分,您能否談談您在射頻前端看到的低於 6 毫米波與毫米波的連接速率?

  • I would assume a much higher rate there on millimeter.

    我會假設毫米的比率要高得多。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Let me answer in reverse order.

    讓我以相反的順序回答。

  • So on the Snapdragon platform today, the attach rate on millimeter wave and sub-6 is the same.

    所以在今天的驍龍平台上,毫米波和sub-6的附著率是一樣的。

  • I think we have modem-to-antenna designs, including RF front end in all of the Snapdragon.

    我認為我們有調製解調器到天線的設計,包括所有 Snapdragon 中的射頻前端。

  • There are very few exceptions.

    很少有例外。

  • And sometimes, the exception is just one or another band in a very small quantity.

    有時,例外只是數量很少的一個或另一個樂隊。

  • I'll say the absolutely majority of the devices, we've been winning RF front end across millimeter wave and sub-6.

    我會說絕對大多數設備,我們一直在贏得毫米波和 sub-6 的射頻前端。

  • It's not unique to millimeter wave.

    這不是毫米波獨有的。

  • However, millimeter wave drives a little more content because unlike sub-6, you need multiple antenna modules and multiple RF chains of millimeter wave.

    但是,毫米波驅動的內容要多一些,因為與 sub-6 不同,您需要多個天線模塊和多個毫米波射頻鏈。

  • So the content is disproportionately higher on the millimeter wave side.

    因此,毫米波方面的含量不成比例地高。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • C.J., on the mix of sub-6 versus millimeter-wave within the 200 million, at this point, we're not disclosing a mix, really.

    C.J.,關於 2 億以內的 sub-6 與毫米波的混合,在這一點上,我們並沒有透露混合,真的。

  • But the way to best think about it is what -- as Cristiano mentioned earlier, is by market.

    但最好的思考方式是——正如克里斯蒂亞諾之前提到的,是市場。

  • And so there are certain markets, U.S., and then Japan and Korea next year, where millimeter wave would be required from an operator perspective, and so those markets would have millimeter wave.

    所以有些市場,美國,明年日本和韓國,從運營商的角度來看需要毫米波,所以這些市場會有毫米波。

  • So the best way to think about it is a mix of markets.

    因此,考慮它的最佳方式是混合市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I wanted to just clarify the answer that you had to a prior question on the March guidance for QCT.

    我只是想澄清一下您對之前關於 QCT 3 月指南的問題的回答。

  • So are you basically implying that units are going to maybe be seasonal plus just a smidge, and most of the increase in QCT revenue in March is ASP?

    所以你基本上是在暗示單位可能是季節性的加上一點點,而 3 月份 QCT 收入的大部分增長是 ASP?

  • Is that right?

    是對的嗎?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think the units will have kind of the regular cadence of seasonality, maybe with some increase that's driven by 5G launches.

    我認為這些單位將具有季節性的規律節奏,可能會隨著 5G 的推出而有所增加。

  • But primarily, it will be a mix of the tier mix within the chips we have and then also the 4G with this 5G mix.

    但主要是,它將是我們擁有的芯片中的層組合,然後是 4G 與這種 5G 組合。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then I guess just following on to that then, if you're not getting much of the unit benefit yet in March, obviously, you're going to eventually have to see that unit benefit.

    然後我想只要繼續下去,如果你在 3 月份還沒有獲得太多單位收益,顯然,你最終將不得不看到單位收益。

  • So how sustainable is the growth in QCT revenue into fiscal Q3 when you would, I would think, see much more of the unit growth in that quarter?

    那麼 QCT 收入增長到第三財季的可持續性如何?我認為,當你看到該季度更多的單位增長時?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • So from a market perspective, the way we are planning our business going forward is we're assuming the current market dynamics hold.

    因此,從市場的角度來看,我們計劃未來業務的方式是我們假設當前的市場動態保持不變。

  • And within that, our benefit is as the transition happens to 5G.

    在此範圍內,我們的好處在於向 5G 過渡。

  • And then -- so that should be the basis for the assumptions for next year.

    然後 - 所以這應該是明年假設的基礎。

  • Now as we have both kind of initial set of 5G launch happen and then additional 5G launches happen across flagships models later in the year, we'll see our operating margin ramp in addition to revenue per MSM as we see the benefit of 5G going to our portfolio.

    現在,由於我們有兩種類型的初始 5G 發布,然後在今年晚些時候在旗艦機型上發布更多 5G,我們將看到除了每 MSM 的收入之外,我們的營業利潤率會上升,因為我們看到 5G 的好處將我們的投資組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • Cristiano, I just have a couple of questions.

    克里斯蒂亞諾,我只有幾個問題。

  • Maybe first off on the 5G outlook for calendar 2020.

    也許首先是 2020 年的 5G 前景。

  • You're talking about 200 million units at the midpoint, and I know other chip makers have reported in the last week or so were talking more like 300 million units globally for 5G next year.

    你說的是中點的 2 億台,我知道其他芯片製造商在上週左右報告說,明年全球 5G 的出貨量更像是 3 億台。

  • I just wanted to sort of delve in a little bit into your assumptions.

    我只是想深入研究一下你的假設。

  • Are you expecting the large flagship launches next year to be only 5G?

    您是否期望明年推出的大型旗艦產品只有 5G?

  • Or do you expect global flagships to also be 4G in that outlook?

    或者您是否預計全球旗艦店也會在這種情況下成為 4G?

  • And anything you can tell us about what your assumptions are for China within that 5G outlook you've given would be very helpful.

    在您給出的 5G 前景中,您可以告訴我們您對中國的假設是什麼,這將非常有幫助。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Excellent question.

    很好的問題。

  • So let me break that down.

    所以讓我分解一下。

  • As we said earlier in this earnings call, I think Akash also mentioned this, we are assuming existing market dynamics.

    正如我們之前在本次財報電話會議中所說,我認為 Akash 也提到了這一點,我們假設現有市場動態。

  • And I think that's why you probably see some of a more conservative estimate.

    我認為這就是為什麼你可能會看到一些更保守的估計。

  • If you believe that there is a pent-up demand for 5G devices, and it's kind of consistent with all the transitions, you could have a change in replacement rates, and that's going to drive a bigger market.

    如果您認為對 5G 設備的需求被壓抑,並且這與所有過渡都一致,那麼您的更換率可能會發生變化,這將推動更大的市場。

  • Bigger market is even better news for Qualcomm.

    更大的市場對高通來說是更好的消息。

  • So we're just assuming existing market dynamics in our projections.

    所以我們只是在我們的預測中假設現有的市場動態。

  • Now going back to the outlook on '20.

    現在回到 20 年的展望。

  • We talk a lot about the dynamics on Q2, but maybe to add to the prior question, you should expect, as we get into the second half of '20, then we're going to see the addition of Apple volumes.

    我們談論了很多關於第二季度的動態,但也許要補充前面的問題,你應該期待,隨著我們進入 20 年下半年,我們將看到蘋果銷量的增加。

  • And so that's -- you should think about really a 5G ramp for Qualcomm in 2020.

    所以這就是——你應該考慮一下高通在 2020 年真正實現 5G 的發展。

  • Your last question about China.

    你關於中國的最後一個問題。

  • The order of magnitude of deployment in China is significant.

    在中國的部署數量級意義重大。

  • And we said during the script that it's -- now the projection is 1 million in gNodeB base stations by 2020.

    我們在腳本中說過,現在預計到 2020 年 gNodeB 基站將達到 100 萬個。

  • That's going to drive a very aggressive migration.

    這將推動非常激進的遷移。

  • So China could also be upside if the market dynamics don't hold and you have higher replacement rates.

    因此,如果市場動態不保持並且您有更高的替代率,中國也可能上漲。

  • And also, if you assume that the current Huawei share gains in China, which we're assuming as our going assumption, if that changes and get to some more normal levels, that's upside as well.

    而且,如果你假設當前華為在中國的份額增長,我們假設這是我們的假設,如果這種情況發生變化並達到一些更正常的水平,那也是有利的。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow-up here.

    也許我可以在這裡問一個快速的跟進。

  • Just to clarify on the RF front end side.

    只是為了澄清射頻前端。

  • When you talk about modem to antenna and 5G, are you also including 4G modules, 4G RF modules, like low band, mid, high band, et cetera?

    當您談論調製解調器到天線和 5G 時,您是否還包括 4G 模塊、4G 射頻模塊,如低頻段、中頻段、高頻段等?

  • Or are we really talking about ultra-high band RF?

    還是我們真的在談論超高頻段射頻?

  • And also just on millimeter wave because I know there's a lot of investors sort of questioning the viability of millimeter wave at the moment.

    而且也只是毫米波,因為我知道目前有很多投資者質疑毫米波的可行性。

  • What are you doing in your second-generation millimeter wave platforms to improve things like battery life?

    您在您的第二代毫米波平台中做了哪些工作來提高電池壽命?

  • Or how do we think performance is going to pick up here?

    或者我們認為這裡的表現會如何回升?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Maybe 2 questions.

    也許2個問題。

  • Let me try to go quickly to them.

    讓我試著快點去找他們。

  • So the first one is we have been very focused in 5G as the entry point.

    所以第一個是我們一直非常關注 5G 作為切入點。

  • So we have been winning RF front end in the 5G mid-band, in the 3.5 band, in some cases, in some of the reform bands as well, the lowest frequencies as well as millimeter wave.

    因此,我們一直在 5G 中頻段、3.5 頻段、在某些情況下,在一些改革頻段、最低頻率以及毫米波中贏得射頻前端。

  • It's both.

    兩者都是。

  • We continue to see the incumbents providing the 4G, but I point you to what we're going to see in 2020, especially with dynamic spectrum sharing.

    我們繼續看到提供 4G 的現有運營商,但我指出我們將在 2020 年看到的情況,尤其是動態頻譜共享。

  • It's going to be the reforming of existing 4G bands, and we expect that to be an expansion of our existing 5G RF front end solution.

    這將是對現有 4G 頻段的改革,我們預計這將是我們現有 5G 射頻前端解決方案的擴展。

  • So that was the first question.

    所以這是第一個問題。

  • If you -- can you remind me of the second question?

    如果你——你能提醒我第二個問題嗎?

  • On the millimeter wave performance.

    關於毫米波性能。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So as we launch a new technology, there's a lot of features that come across the device and the infrastructure, and they don't come all day 1. So some of the initial, I think, battery life or even terminal that was experienced by millimeter wave, in the first generation chipset, they've already been addressed with software updates, and we've seen a full day of battery life on existing first generation chipset.

    因此,當我們推出一項新技術時,設備和基礎設施會遇到很多功能,而且它們不會在第一天就出現。所以我認為,一些最初的電池壽命甚至是終端體驗毫米波,在第一代芯片組中,它們已經通過軟件更新得到解決,我們已經看到現有第一代芯片組的電池續航時間可以達到一整天。

  • As we go to the second-generation Snapdragon, we see with -- across process node and evolution of our modern technology also significant improvements in battery life area for the millimeter wave footprint as well as terminals.

    當我們進入第二代 Snapdragon 時,我們看到 - 跨工藝節點和我們現代技術的發展也顯著改善了毫米波足跡和終端的電池壽命領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri with SMBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SMBC 的 Srini Pajjuri。

  • Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst

    Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst

  • A couple of follow-ups, actually.

    實際上,有幾個後續行動。

  • I guess first on the 5G ASP boost.

    我想首先是 5G ASP 提升。

  • There has been a lot of talk about the chips at ASP boost.

    有很多關於 ASP 提升芯片的討論。

  • But I'm just curious, I mean, do you see any benefit on the QTL side.

    但我只是好奇,我的意思是,你看到 QTL 方面有什麼好處嗎?

  • I know -- I think most of the 4G premium phones are probably already hitting your cap.

    我知道——我認為大多數 4G 高端手機可能已經達到了你的上限。

  • But as we transition to 5G, what sort of benefit, if any, do you see on the QTL side?

    但是,當我們過渡到 5G 時,您在 QTL 方面看到了什麼好處(如果有的話)?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Srini, this is Akash.

    斯里尼,這是阿卡什。

  • When -- again, kind of going back to history, what has happened from 3G to 4G and previous generations, we have seen typically an increase in replacement rates and an increase in ASPs when we go to a new generation.

    當 - 再次回到歷史,從 3G 到 4G 以及前幾代發生的事情時,我們通常會看到當我們進入新一代時,更換率和 ASP 會增加。

  • So that is certainly something that is possible and maybe even likely with 5G.

    所以這當然是可能的,甚至可能在 5G 中實現。

  • For our planned -- business planning purposes, we are -- as we said earlier, we are planning based on a market being consistent, and then within that, having a transition to 5G.

    正如我們之前所說,出於我們計劃的業務規劃目的,我們正在根據市場進行規劃,然後在此範圍內過渡到 5G。

  • So that could be an upside opportunity for us.

    所以這對我們來說可能是一個上行機會。

  • That's not included.

    那不包括在內。

  • And then you could also see users with low and mid-tier devices upgrade and buy higher tier devices because of the increased capability that 5G brings, and that could help QTL ASPs as well.

    然後您還可以看到使用中低端設備的用戶升級併購買更高級別的設備,因為 5G 帶來了增強的功能,這也可以幫助 QTL ASP。

  • But again, that is not modeled into our business at this point.

    但同樣,目前這還沒有融入我們的業務。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • And one quick point.

    還有一點。

  • With our early R&D and IP leadership, it's just a really good context for driving new agreements.

    憑藉我們早期的研發和知識產權領導地位,這只是推動新協議的一個非常好的環境。

  • Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst

    Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And then, Akash, on the margin front.

    然後,阿卡什,在邊緣前沿。

  • At QCT, I know you said the margins will improve over the next few quarters.

    在 QCT,我知道您說過未來幾個季度的利潤率會提高。

  • But my question is, on a like-for-like basis, does 5G give you better margins?

    但我的問題是,在同類的基礎上,5G 是否會給你帶來更好的利潤?

  • Meaning, if I go back to the second half of 2017, I think you hit your 20%, 21% EBIT margin for QCT.

    意思是,如果我回到 2017 年下半年,我認為 QCT 的息稅前利潤率達到了 20%、21%。

  • At that time, your revenue run rate was close to $1 billion.

    那時,您的收入運行率接近 10 億美元。

  • So when we get back to that kind of revenue run rate, do you expect the margins to be higher than the 20%, 21%?

    因此,當我們回到那種收入運行率時,您是否預計利潤率會高於 20%、21%?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So Srini, at this point, we're not disclosing kind of separate margins for our 4G versus our 5G business or a specific target for long-term margins, but this is something we'll address at the Analyst Day.

    所以斯里尼,在這一點上,我們沒有披露我們的 4G 與 5G 業務的單獨利潤率或長期利潤率的具體目標,但這是我們將在分析師日討論的問題。

  • So if you can stay tuned for a couple of weeks, and we'll plan to address it there.

    因此,如果您可以繼續關注幾週,我們將計劃在那裡解決它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • I was just wondering, just looking at the RF front end wins that you're seeing into next year, if you could give us exiting calendar '20 what you see would be the mix of RFFE within your QCT, or give us some dollar number on what you think your RFFE would be.

    我只是想知道,看看你明年看到的 RF 前端勝利,如果你能給我們退出日曆 '20,你看到的是 QCT 中 RFFE 的組合,或者給我們一些美元數字你認為你的 RFFE 會是什麼。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的問題。

  • We're not really breaking that down, but we did provide that metric of 1.5x.

    我們並沒有真正將其分解,但我們確實提供了 1.5 倍的指標。

  • That includes both the ASP increase in the 5g modem as well as our RF front end content in average per tier.

    這包括 5g 調製解調器的 ASP 增加以及我們每層的平均射頻前端內容。

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And on the QCT side, I know you guys talked about a nice pickup with the mix going to 5G.

    在 QCT 方面,我知道你們談到了一個不錯的皮卡,其中混合了 5G。

  • What kind of ASP assumptions are you assuming on that as you go through 2020, especially as you might have some other mature suppliers entering the market?

    當您度過 2020 年時,您對此有何假設,尤其是當您可能有其他一些成熟的供應商進入市場時?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Look, we -- the way to think about it is we always have competition, and there's nothing that we see in the market on the competitive side that is different than what we expected, and that is factored in our projections.

    看,我們 - 思考它的方式是我們總是有競爭,我們在競爭方面看到的市場沒有什麼與我們預期的不同,這是我們預測的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Walsh with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自帕特里克沃爾什和奧本海默的觀點。

  • Patrick Walsh;Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division

    Patrick Walsh;Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division

  • Sorry about that.

    對於那個很抱歉。

  • I had it on mute.

    我把它靜音了。

  • I just had 2 quick questions.

    我只有 2 個簡單的問題。

  • So the first question on the RF side.

    所以關於射頻方面的第一個問題。

  • When you hear the traditional RF players, Qorvo, Skyworks, talk, they talk about a change in RF content from either 18 to 20 going to 25.

    當您聽到傳統的 RF 播放器 Qorvo、Skyworks 談論時,他們談論 RF 內容從 18 到 20 再到 25 的變化。

  • And so my question for you, it seems like initially, you guys are focused more on that incremental $5 to $7.

    所以我問你的問題,似乎一開始,你們更關注的是 5 到 7 美元的增量。

  • Is that a fair assessment?

    這是一個公平的評價嗎?

  • And is the majority of that $5 to $7 made up by millimeter wave?

    5 到 7 美元中的大部分是由毫米波構成的嗎?

  • And then if we think about that core 18 to 20 that's been historically there, are you really aiming for these kind of refarmed bands?

    然後,如果我們考慮一下歷史上一直存在的核心 18 到 20,你真的瞄準這些重組的樂隊嗎?

  • And then I guess, within the bands, can you -- do you have -- I know you have BAW capacity via TDK, I wouldn't imagine it's too much just given that Avago and Qorvo have probably, I think, 80% of the capacity out there.

    然後我想,在樂隊中,你能 - 你有 - 我知道你有通過 TDK 的 BAW 能力,我認為這不會太多,因為 Avago 和 Qorvo 可能有,我想,80%那裡的容量。

  • So would you be targeting more like low-band pads?

    那麼您的目標是否更像是低頻段打擊墊?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Patrick, in terms of kind of the ASP question you asked, I think the examples you're quoting was for premium tier device.

    帕特里克,就您提出的 ASP 問題而言,我認為您引用的示例是針對高級設備的。

  • Really, as you look at different regions and you look at different frequency bands in a given region and tier of device, those numbers could be vastly different.

    確實,當您查看不同區域並查看給定區域和設備層級中的不同頻段時,這些數字可能會大不相同。

  • So I think it's very difficult to generalize in terms of ASP advantages.

    所以我認為很難概括 ASP 的優勢。

  • The way you should think about it is there is a certain market for RF front end that exists.

    您應該考慮的方式是存在一定的射頻前端市場。

  • With 5G coming in, that is going to expand, and it's going to create an opportunity for us to significantly improve our share in the market.

    隨著 5G 的到來,這將擴大,它將為我們創造機會,顯著提高我們在市場中的份額。

  • And then on top of that, as Cristiano mentioned as DSS happens, that spectrum sharing and bands get refarmed to 5G, we'll be able to participate and further expand our revenue opportunity.

    最重要的是,正如 Cristiano 在 DSS 發生時提到的那樣,頻譜共享和頻段被重新分配到 5G,我們將能夠參與並進一步擴大我們的收入機會。

  • So that's kind of the framework you should use.

    所以這就是你應該使用的框架。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • That concludes today's question-and-answer session.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。

  • Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

    Mollenkopf 先生,在暫停通話之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just -- I just want to thank the team, the Qualcomm team, for their hard work and the great execution through 2019.

    只是——我只想感謝高通團隊,感謝他們在 2019 年的辛勤工作和出色的執行。

  • 2020 is the year of 5G.

    2020年是5G元年。

  • I want to thank everybody for their hard work.

    我要感謝大家的辛勤工作。

  • We're on the cusp of it, and I'm very excited about it.

    我們正處於風口浪尖,我對此感到非常興奮。

  • But thanks, everybody.

    但是謝謝大家。

  • See you next time.

    下次見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。