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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, November 6, 2019. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13695634.
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加高通公司2019財年第四季及業績電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒:本次會議正在錄音,2019 年 11 月 6 日。今天電話回放號碼是 (877) 660-6853。國際來電者請撥打 (201) 612-7415。播放預約號碼為 13695634。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.
現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁毛里西奧·洛佩茲-霍多揚先生,洛佩茲-霍多揚先生,請開始吧。
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and the Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon; Alex Rogers; and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.
謝謝大家,大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括史蒂夫·莫倫科夫和阿卡什·帕爾基瓦拉的準備好的演講。此外,克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格也將參加問答環節。
You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.
您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站,查看我們的獲利報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片簡報。此外,本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網路直播,稍後將在我們的網站上提供重播。
During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用 G 條例定義的非 GAAP 財務指標,您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的調整表。我們也會做出前瞻性聲明,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務表現的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與我們的前瞻性聲明中預測的內容有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括最新的 10-K 表格,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的重要因素。
And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
接下來請高通執行長史蒂夫·莫倫科夫發表演說。
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report strong results in the fourth quarter with non-GAAP earnings of $0.78 per share, above the high end of our guidance range on the solid performance in our licensing business. We are also pleased to see our licensing revenue return to a seasonal pattern, with fiscal Q1 as a high based on our recent licensing agreement with Apple.
謝謝你,毛里西奧,大家下午好。我們很高興地宣布第四季業績強勁,非GAAP每股收益為0.78美元,高於我們預期範圍的上限,這主要得益於我們授權業務的穩健表現。我們也很高興地看到,我們的授權收入恢復了季節性規律,第一財季收入較高,這主要得益於我們最近與蘋果公司達成的授權協議。
Over the last several years, we have invested to establish Qualcomm as a leader in 5G. As a reminder, 5G brings a significant increase in complexity over 4G, such as new and dense network architectures, high performance-based bands, advanced RF front end designs, increased processing requirements, in addition to driving the leading-edge process node. We are actively focused on helping to define and standardize releases 16 and 17 features to support the expansion of 5G into new, large, adjacent markets such as enterprise, industrial IoT and automotive. The complexity and expansion of cellular technologies beyond the smartphone into nearly every industry play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and are why we believe 5G will represent the single biggest opportunity in Qualcomm's history.
過去幾年,我們投入大量資金,讓高通成為 5G 領域的領導者。需要提醒的是,5G 相較於 4G 帶來了顯著的複雜性提升,例如新的密集網路架構、高效能頻段、先進的射頻前端設計、更高的處理要求,以及對尖端製程節點的推動。我們正積極致力於協助定義和規範 16 版和 17 版的功能,以支援 5G 擴展到新的、大型的鄰近市場,例如企業、工業物聯網和汽車。蜂窩技術的複雜性和從智慧型手機擴展到幾乎所有行業的趨勢,直接發揮了高通的優勢,這也是為什麼我們相信 5G 將成為高通歷史上最大的機會。
Looking ahead to fiscal year 2020, the company remains focused on these 3 key priorities. Number one, continue executing on 5G with our partners around the world. The number of OEMs and operators launching 5G products and services continues to increase throughout the year. There are now over 40 OEMs and over 30 operators launching or announcing 5G products or commercial service, up from approximately 20 OEMs and operators, respectively, at the start of the year. Looking forward, we expect 5G to launch in all regions within the next 2 to 3 years.
展望 2020 財年,公司將繼續專注於這 3 個關鍵優先事項。第一,繼續與世界各地的合作夥伴推動 5G 專案。今年以來,推出 5G 產品和服務的 OEM 廠商和營運商數量持續成長。目前已有超過 40 家原始設備製造商 (OEM) 和超過 30 家營運商推出或宣布推出 5G 產品或商用服務,而年初時分別只有大約 20 家 OEM 和營運商。展望未來,我們預計 5G 將在未來 2 到 3 年內涵蓋所有地區。
On the product side, in September, we announced plans to accelerate 5G global commercialization at scale by expanding our portfolio of 5G mobile platforms into the Snapdragon 7 series and 6 series, launching as early as calendar Q1 2020. Our integrated 5G SoCs will support both sub-6 gigahertz and millimeter wave at the volume tiers across all geographies.
在產品方面,我們在 9 月宣布了加速 5G 全球商業化的計劃,將我們的 5G 行動平台產品組合擴展到驍龍 7 系列和 6 系列,最早將於 2020 年第一季推出。我們的整合式 5G SoC 將支援 6 吉赫茲以下頻段和毫米波頻段,並在所有地區提供量產方案。
As we continue to expand our 5G product portfolio, our design wins are also increasing. We now have over 230 5G design wins, launched or in development, up from 150 in the prior quarter, virtually all of which are using our RF front end solutions for 5G sub-6 and/or millimeter wave.
隨著我們不斷擴展 5G 產品組合,我們的設計中標數量也在增加。我們現在已贏得超過 230 個 5G 設計項目,包括已推出或正在開發的項目,比上一季的 150 個項目有所增加,幾乎所有項目都使用了我們用於 5G sub-6 和/或毫米波的射頻前端解決方案。
Notably, multiple OEMs are now shipping or have announced their second or third 5G device models using both our Snapdragon 5G core chipset and our modem-to-antenna RF front end solution.
值得注意的是,目前已有多家 OEM 廠商推出或宣布推出第二款或第三款 5G 設備型號,這些型號均採用我們的驍龍 5G 核心晶片組和我們的調變解調器到天線射頻前端解決方案。
In Korea, the migration to 5G continues at a strong pace. According to the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT, Korean operators have already signed up 3.5 million 5G subscribers through September, a pace that remains faster than its migration to 4G. Additionally, 5G millimeter wave services are in planning stages by Korean carriers for calendar 2020.
在韓國,向 5G 的遷移仍在快速推進。據韓國科學技術資訊通信部稱,截至9月份,韓國營運商已簽約350萬5G用戶,這一速度仍超過了其向4G過渡的速度。此外,韓國業者正在規劃於 2020 年推出 5G 毫米波服務。
In the United States, Verizon has committed to deploy 5G Ultra Wideband millimeter wave in 30 markets by year-end, and T-Mobile separately announced plans to cover 200 million people with 5G on 600 megahertz before the end of this year. And in Europe, there are multiple 5G launches across Switzerland, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany.
在美國,Verizon 承諾在年底前在 30 個市場部署 5G 超寬頻毫米波,而 T-Mobile 也單獨宣布計劃在今年年底前用 600 兆赫的 5G 網路覆蓋 2 億人口。在歐洲,瑞士、義大利、英國和德國都已多次推出 5G 服務。
In China, all 3 mobile operators commercially launched 5G services last week, bringing 5G to the largest smartphone subscriber base in the world. We now estimate that by the end of this year, the 3 operators will deploy a total of approximately 130,000 5G base stations. We further estimate that by the end of 2020, 5G base station deployments will increase to approximately 1 million, which, to put in context, is 10 times the scale of the entire network of a large U.S. operator.
上週,中國的三大行動電信商全部正式推出 5G 服務,將 5G 帶給了全球最大的智慧型手機用戶群。我們現在估計,到今年年底,這 3 家營運商將總共部署約 13 萬個 5G 基地台。我們進一步估計,到 2020 年底,5G 基地台部署將增加到約 100 萬個,這相當於美國大型營運商整個網路規模的 10 倍。
Lastly, TSMC recently attributed the significant increase in demand for their leading technology nodes to a stronger outlook for 5G deployment next year. This is yet another significant indicator of the 5G ramp into 2020.
最後,台積電最近將對其領先技術節點的顯著需求成長歸因於明年 5G 部署前景的增強。這是 5G 在 2020 年加速普及的另一個重要指標。
Second priority, to expand our technology platform into adjacent industry segments. In automotive, we are very encouraged with the engagement and design win traction we are experiencing from automakers and Tier 1 customers with our telematics and third-generation Snapdragon automotive cockpit solutions. Our design win pipeline has now increased to almost $6.5 billion, up from $5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into strong growth in auto over the next several years. Over time, as the technology road map in auto converges with the cellular road map, we expect to see an increased opportunity to lead in new product categories, notably, ADAS.
第二要務是將我們的技術平台擴展到鄰近的產業領域。在汽車領域,我們非常欣慰地看到,我們的車載資訊系統和第三代驍龍汽車座艙解決方案在汽車製造商和一級客戶中獲得了極大的參與度和設計上的成功。我們的設計得標項目儲備已增至近 65 億美元,高於本財年初的 50 億美元,這讓我們對未來幾年汽車產業的強勁成長前景有了更清晰的認識。隨著汽車技術路線圖與蜂窩技術路線圖的融合,我們預計未來將有更多機會在新產品類別中引領潮流,尤其是在 ADAS 領域。
In compute, we continue to build traction in the Windows on Snapdragon, Always On, Always Connected PC category. In August, Samsung announced the Galaxy Book S based on the Snapdragon 8cx. This is Samsung's second Windows on Snapdragon device, and the first announced Snapdragon 8cx Always Connected PC.
在運算領域,我們持續在搭載驍龍處理器的 Windows、隨時在線、始終連接的 PC 類別中擴大市場份額。8 月,三星發布了基於驍龍 8cx 處理器的 Galaxy Book S。這是三星推出的第二款搭載驍龍處理器的 Windows 設備,也是首款發布搭載驍龍 8cx 處理器的始終連接 PC。
In October, Microsoft launched the Surface Pro X, our first design with Microsoft in this premium tier, powered by a Snapdragon 8cx variant that is designed for the Always On compute environment, the Microsoft SQ1, developed in partnership with Microsoft. This is the thinnest Surface ever and has 3 times the performance per watt as the Surface Pro 6.
10 月,微軟推出了 Surface Pro X,這是我們與微軟合作開發的首款高階產品,搭載了專為 Always On 運算環境設計的驍龍 8cx 變體處理器,即微軟 SQ1,該處理器由我們與微軟合作開發。這是迄今為止最薄的 Surface,其每瓦性能是 Surface Pro 6 的 3 倍。
Priority three, drive revenue growth, operating leverage and earnings per share. Consistent with our comments last quarter, we continue to expect a positive inflection point as 5G ramps beginning in our fiscal second quarter. With the conclusion of our cost plan and significant share repurchases over the last year, we are poised to deliver margin expansion and outsized growth in earnings and earnings per share as revenue growth accelerates.
第三要務,推動營收成長、營運槓桿和每股盈餘。與上個季度的評論一致,我們繼續預期隨著 5G 在第二財季開始逐步普及,將會出現一個正面的轉折點。隨著成本計劃的完成以及過去一年的大量股票回購,隨著收入增長加速,我們已做好準備,實現利潤率擴張以及盈利和每股收益的超額增長。
We are pleased with the progress we have made over the course of 2019 and believe the business is very well positioned for sustained long-term growth as we benefit from the decisions and investments made over the last several years, including 5G, the return of Apple licensing and product revenues, growth in RF front end and growth in adjacent businesses.
我們對 2019 年的進展感到滿意,並相信公司已做好充分準備,實現持續的長期成長,這得益於過去幾年所做的決策和投資,包括 5G、蘋果授權和產品收入的回歸、射頻前端的成長以及相關業務的成長。
Before I turn the call over to Akash, I'd like to congratulate him on becoming Qualcomm's Chief Financial Officer. As QCT Finance Lead for the past 4 years, Akash brings a deep knowledge base of our company, both operationally and strategically. I'm looking forward to working closely with Akash as we enter this next chapter of our history.
在將電話交給阿卡什之前,我想祝賀他成為高通的財務長。在過去的 4 年裡,Akash 一直擔任 QCT 財務主管,對我們公司在營運和策略方面都有深刻的了解。我期待與 Akash 緊密合作,共同開啟我們歷史的新篇章。
I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.
現在我想把電話交給阿卡什。
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. It is a very exciting time to become Chief Financial Officer of Qualcomm, and I'm looking forward to engaging with our shareholders and analysts. I will begin with a discussion of our fiscal fourth quarter earnings.
謝謝你,史蒂夫,大家下午好。現在正是我擔任高通財務長的絕佳時機,我非常激動人心,期待與我們的股東和分析師們交流。我將首先討論我們第四財季的獲利情況。
We delivered strong results with non-GAAP EPS of $0.78, $0.03 above the high end of our guidance range; and revenues of $4.8 billion, above the midpoint of our guidance range. The outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by QTL on higher units and stronger mix, resulting in QTL revenues of $1.16 billion and EBITDA margin of 68%. As a reminder, we did not record any royalty revenues from Huawei in our fiscal fourth quarter results.
我們取得了強勁的業績,非GAAP每股收益為0.78美元,比我們預期範圍的上限高出0.03美元;營收為48億美元,高於我們預期範圍的中點。本季業績優異主要得益於 QTL 銷售增加和產品組合增強,QTL 營收達 11.6 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率達 68%。再次提醒,我們在第四財季業績中沒有確認來自華為的任何特許權使用費收入。
QCT delivered revenues of $3.6 billion and 152 million MSM chip shipments, in line with our expectations for the quarter. QCT's EBT margin was approximately 14%, flat sequentially and at the midpoint of our guidance range.
QCT 實現營收 36 億美元,MSM 晶片出貨量 1.52 億片,符合我們對該季度的預期。QCT 的 EBT 利潤率約為 14%,環比持平,處於我們預期範圍的中點。
Turning to fiscal 2019. We recorded $19.4 billion in non-GAAP revenues and $3.54 in non-GAAP earnings per share. During the year, we achieved several key milestones that position us favorably for fiscal 2020 and beyond. First, our early investments in 5G played a key role in accelerating 5G deployments, and we have secured over 230 chipset design wins. Second, we completed the acquisition of the remaining interest in RF360 Holdings and established a strong design win pipeline for RF front end products across 5G sub-6 and millimeter wave devices. Third, we signed global patent license and multiyear chipset supply agreements with Apple. Fourth, we concluded our cost reduction plan announced in January 2018. And lastly, since our July 2018 announcement, we have completed approximately $23 billion in stock repurchase through fiscal 2019 at an average price of $65 per share, resulting in a 22% reduction of our shares outstanding.
接下來是2019財年。我們錄得非GAAP收入194億美元,非GAAP每股收益3.54美元。年內,我們取得了幾個關鍵里程碑,為我們迎接 2020 財年及以後的發展奠定了有利基礎。首先,我們對 5G 的早期投資在加速 5G 部署方面發揮了關鍵作用,我們已獲得超過 230 個晶片組設計訂單。其次,我們完成了 RF360 Holdings 剩餘股份的收購,並為 5G sub-6 和毫米波設備的射頻前端產品建立了強大的設計中標管道。第三,我們與蘋果簽署了全球專利授權協議和多年晶片組供應協議。第四,我們完成了 2018 年 1 月宣布的成本削減計畫。最後,自 2018 年 7 月我們宣布以來,截至 2019 財年,我們已完成約 230 億美元的股票回購,平均價格為每股 65 美元,使我們的流通股減少了 22%。
Turning to our outlook. We are maintaining our estimate of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion units for calendar 2019 for global 3G, 4G, 5G device forecast. For calendar 2020, we are estimating 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion units, up approximately 3% at the midpoint, reflecting flat handsets and low double-digit growth in nonhandsets. We are estimating 175 million to 225 million 5G handset units in calendar 2020.
展望未來。我們維持 2019 年全球 3G、4G、5G 設備銷售預測的 17 億至 18 億台的估計。我們預計 2020 年全年銷量將達到 17.5 億至 18.5 億台,中位數成長約 3%,反映出手機銷量持平,而非手機銷量則實現了兩位數的低成長。我們預計 2020 年 5G 手機銷量將達到 1.75 億至 2.25 億支。
Consistent with our comments on our previous earnings call, our business outlook is impacted by several factors, including weaker demand in China and certain developed regions, Huawei's share gain in China and OEMs managing 4G inventory ahead of the transition to 5G.
與我們在上次財報電話會議上的評論一致,我們的業務前景受到多種因素的影響,包括中國和某些發達地區的需求疲軟、華為在中國市場份額的增長以及OEM廠商在向5G過渡之前管理4G庫存。
Turning to our first quarter guidance for fiscal 2020. We expect revenues to be in the range of $4.4 billion to $5.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 to $0.90. We estimate fiscal first quarter QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion and EBITDA margin of 70% to 74%. We expect QTL revenues to be up 21% sequentially at the midpoint in our fiscal first quarter due to normal holiday seasonality, driven by timing of flagship phone launches. Our fiscal first quarter forecast does not include any royalty revenues from Huawei while we continue to pursue a negotiated resolution of the licensing dispute.
接下來,讓我們來看看2020財年第一季的業績預期。我們預計營收將在 44 億美元至 52 億美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.80 美元至 0.90 美元。我們預計 QTL 財年第一季的營收將在 13 億美元至 15 億美元之間,EBITDA 利潤率為 70% 至 74%。由於旗艦手機發佈時間的推動,以及正常的假期季節性因素,我們預計QTL在第一財季中期的營收將較上季成長21%。由於我們仍在尋求透過談判解決與華為的許可糾紛,因此我們第一財季的預測不包括來自華為的任何特許權使用費收入。
With the completion of the global patent license agreement with Apple earlier this year, QTL revenues will begin to reflect a seasonally high fiscal first quarter. Following this seasonal uplift, we expect QTL revenues to return to a range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion in our fiscal second quarter.
今年稍早與蘋果完成全球專利授權協議後,QTL 的營收將開始反映出季節性較高的第一財季。受此季節性成長的影響,我們預計 QTL 的營收將在第二財季恢復到 10 億美元至 12 億美元之間。
In QCT, we estimate fiscal first quarter MSM shipments of 145 million to 165 million units and EBITDA margin in the range of 10% to 12%. QCT's EBITDA margin guidance reflects lower volume in the premium and high tiers, driven by a pause ahead of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020, and the normal timing of handset launches by our customers in these tiers. As we'll -- beyond our fiscal first quarter, we see a significant inflection point for QCT as we expect to realize the benefits from the ramp of 5G handset launches. In the fiscal second quarter, we anticipate QCT revenues to grow in the mid-teens sequentially and QCT EBT margin to return to the mid-teens.
在 QCT,我們預計第一財季 MSM 出貨量為 1.45 億至 1.65 億台,EBITDA 利潤率在 10% 至 12% 之間。QCT 的 EBITDA 利潤率預期反映了高端和高級市場的銷售下降,這是由於在 2020 年初向 5G 過渡之前暫停銷售,以及我們的客戶在這些級別推出手機的正常時間所致。此外,除了我們第一財季之外,我們還看到了 QCT 的一個重要轉折點,因為我們預計將從 5G 手機的發布中受益。在第二財季,我們預計 QCT 的營收將季增 15% 左右,QCT 的 EBT 利潤率也將恢復到 15% 左右。
In our fiscal first quarter, we expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be flat to down 2% sequentially. As a reminder, expenses are typically higher in our fiscal second quarter as it includes the normal calendar resets for certain employee-related costs.
我們預計,在第一財季,非GAAP合併研發及銷售、管理及行政費用將與上一季持平或下降2%。提醒各位,由於第二財季包含某些員工相關成本的正常日曆重置,因此該財季的支出通常會較高。
Interest expense, net of investment and other income, in the fiscal first quarter is expected to be approximately $100 million and is a reasonable estimate for each of the remaining quarters in fiscal 2020.
2020 財年第一季的利息支出(扣除投資和其他收入)預計約為 1 億美元,這一估計對於 2020 財年剩餘的每個季度都是合理的。
For our fiscal first quarter, we also estimate approximately 1.16 billion weighted average shares outstanding and a tax rate of 14%.
對於我們的第一財季,我們也估計加權平均流通股約為 11.6 億股,稅率為 14%。
Looking forward, 2020 is an exciting year for Qualcomm as we expect the financial upside of our 5G strategy to begin to play out with multiple drivers of non-GAAP revenue and earnings growth, including the launch of 5G devices, RF front end design win traction, growth in adjacencies, combined with operating leverage and a substantially reduced share count.
展望未來,2020 年對高通來說是令人興奮的一年,我們預計 5G 策略的財務收益將開始顯現,這得益於多項非 GAAP 收入和盈利增長的驅動因素,包括 5G 設備的推出、射頻前端設計贏得市場、相關領域的增長,以及運營槓桿和大幅減少的流通股數量。
We look forward to seeing you in New York at our Analyst Day on November 19, where we will be providing additional details about our long-term growth strategy.
我們期待在 11 月 19 日於紐約舉行的分析師日上與您見面,屆時我們將提供有關我們長期成長策略的更多細節。
Thank you, and I will now turn the call back over to Mauricio.
謝謝,我現在將把電話轉回給毛里西奧。
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR
Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR
Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.
謝謝你,阿卡什。接線員,我們已準備好回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.
(操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso。
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
I guess first question would be on the pace of the 5G ramp as you proceed through the fiscal year. You've given some indications on where you expect overall revenue to be. If you could talk about that in percentage terms of 5G as a percentage of the mix as it goes through the year, even on revenue terms or MSM terms, whatever you could do to give us some sense of how 5G penetrates as the year goes on.
我想第一個問題應該是關於本財年內 5G 部署速度的提升。您已經對整體收入預期給了一些指示。如果您能以百分比的形式,談談 5G 在全年各種管道組合中所佔的百分比,或者以收入或 MSM 指標的形式,無論如何,只要能讓我們了解 5G 在這一年中的滲透情況,那就太好了。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Thanks, Chris. This is Cristiano. Consistent, I think, with what we just said in the earnings call. I think timing, our fiscal Q2, is that we started to see the inflection point as the devices started to show up in volumes. And overall, I think mix. We expect that to be ramping in the high, in the premium tier, in some of the markets that we're seeing launching 5G. Within that, we provide a metric before that we will see probably 1.5x the ASP as we look at higher content for both the modem as well as the front end.
謝謝你,克里斯。這是克里斯蒂亞諾。我認為這與我們剛才在財報電話會議上所說的內容一致。我認為時機,也就是我們第二財季,是我們開始看到轉折點的時候,因為這些設備開始大量湧入市場。總的來說,我認為是混合的。我們預計,在一些正在推出 5G 的市場中,高端市場和優質市場將會加速發展。在此之前,我們提供了一個指標,隨著數據機和前端內容的增加,我們可能會看到平均售價提高 1.5 倍。
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
Okay. And as a follow-on for that, maybe you could give us some commentary on how that impacts QCT margins as the year progresses. Obviously, you've got that additional content. The margins are depressed as you're making the transition now. What should we expect as the year goes on, on those QCT margins?
好的。此外,您能否就此發表一些評論,說明隨著時間的推移,這將如何影響 QCT 的利潤率?顯然,你還有那些額外的內容。由於目前正處於轉型期,利潤率有所下降。隨著今年的進行,我們應該對這些QCT利潤率抱持怎樣的預期?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Chris, this is Akash. The way you should think about the year playing out for QCT with 5G is, really, there's going to be 2 inflection points in the chip business. The first inflection point will be flagship launches in early 2020 by both our global and Chinese OEMs, and you should think of it that RMB 3,000 and above handsets will start adopting 5G. The second inflection point will be in the fall time frame when another set of flagship devices will adopt 5G. So that should be kind of the shape of 5G adoption through the year.
克里斯,這位是阿卡什。對 QCT 而言,在 5G 領域,今年的發展趨勢實際上是晶片產業將出現兩個轉折點。第一個轉捩點將是 2020 年初我們全球和中國 OEM 廠商推出的旗艦機型,屆時售價 3000 元人民幣及以上的手機將開始採用 5G 技術。第二個轉折點將在秋季,屆時另一批旗艦設備將採用 5G 技術。所以,這應該就是今年5G普及的大致趨勢。
And how this translates into margin is we gave guidance for our second quarter margin. We are expecting from first to second quarter, revenue will go up mid-teens, and operating margins will also be in the mid-teens range in the second quarter. We are not guiding longer-term margins at this point, but we'll talk about it at Analyst Day as well.
至於這如何轉化為利潤率,我們已經給出了第二季度利潤率的預期。我們預計從第一季到第二季度,營收將成長15%左右,第二季的營業利潤率也將達到15%左右。我們目前不提供長期利潤率指引,但我們會在分析師日上討論這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
I wanted to ask kind of a follow-up to that. And maybe, Cristiano, you can talk about where you see Qualcomm -- where it's particularly strong position in terms of like if we look at flagships down through the different tiers of phones, where -- you've talked a lot about design wins. But where should we expect you to show up most strongly versus where it may be or be a bit more variety of suppliers?
我想問一個後續問題。克里斯蒂亞諾,或許你可以談談你認為高通在哪些方面處於特別強勢的地位——比如,如果我們從旗艦機型到不同級別的手機,你之前談了很多關於設計方面的優勢。但是,我們應該期待您在哪些方面表現最突出?或者,供應商的種類應該要更加多樣化?
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Thanks for the question, James. We updated our design pipeline. The design pipeline is about now 230-plus 5G devices across now multiple tiers. It's up substantially since 6 months ago. And I'll answer your question 2 ways.
謝謝你的提問,詹姆斯。我們更新了設計流程。目前的設計流程涵蓋了超過 230 款 5G 設備,涉及多個層級。與6個月前相比,漲幅顯著。我會用兩種方式回答你的問題。
First, I think it's been very clear that our early investment in millimeter-wave has provided Qualcomm with a significant technology advantage in having the technology to maturity. And we're optimistic about millimeter wave going from the United States initial launches into Korea, in Japan, in other markets, including being licensed already in Europe. Telecom Italia was the first one, happening throughout 2020. That's a very good thing for Qualcomm.
首先,我認為很明顯,我們對毫米波技術的早期投資為高通帶來了顯著的技術優勢,使其技術得以成熟。我們對毫米波技術從美國最初的推廣到韓國、日本和其他市場(包括已經在歐洲獲得許可的市場)的發展前景持樂觀態度。義大利電信是第一個,整個過程持續了 2020 年。這對高通來說是一件非常好的事。
Having said that, I would probably say that every single launch of a flagship OEM today, with exception of Huawei, they use their own silicon, every other launch of every other OEM has been a Qualcomm Snapdragon platform. And that position us very well about -- partner with OEMs for 5G ramp, including Samsung, which we have not only launched with the traditional markets but also, I point you to the A series, which is the second-tier below the flagship that's been launching with Qualcomm globally in addition to the Galaxy Fold. So those are positive things as we think 5G transition for Qualcomm.
話雖如此,我大概會說,如今除了華為之外,所有旗艦 OEM 廠商推出的產品都使用了自家晶片,而其他所有 OEM 廠商推出的產品則都採用了高通驍龍平台。這讓我們在與 OEM 廠商合作推進 5G 市場方面佔據了非常有利的地位,包括三星。我們不僅在傳統市場推出了 5G 產品,而且,我還要指出 A 系列,它是旗艦級產品之下的次高階產品,除了 Galaxy Fold 之外,我們還與高通公司在全球範圍內推出了 A 系列產品。所以,從高通的 5G 轉型角度來看,這些都是正面的因素。
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
Great. And then a follow-up question, maybe for Steve and Don. You mentioned that you're in ongoing negotiations with Huawei but haven't reached any agreement as of yet. How do you think -- or what needs to happen to move an agreement across the line?
偉大的。然後還有一個後續問題,或許可以問史蒂夫和唐。您提到您正在與華為進行談判,但目前尚未達成任何協議。您認為需要做些什麼——或者說,需要發生什麼才能促成協議的達成?
And are we going to -- I guess, I'm wondering how China-U. S. trade relations and potential resolution or at least a trade agreement may factor in to those negotiations and conversations with Huawei.
我們是不是要──我想,我想知道中美關係會如何發展。美國與華為的貿易關係以及潛在的解決方案或至少是貿易協議,可能會影響與華為的談判和對話。
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
James, it's Steve. So we continue to talk to Huawei. I would characterize the discussions is ongoing, but really nothing to report on. Obviously, we don't have the numbers. We don't have any revenue in the numbers right now for licensing revenue.
詹姆斯,我是史蒂夫。所以我們會繼續與華為進行對話。我覺得討論仍在進行中,但目前沒有什麼值得報告的。顯然,我們沒有這些數據。目前我們的財務數據中還沒有任何授權收入。
In terms of how the trade discussions between the 2 countries impact the probability or chance that we can get a resolution, I think it's too early to tell. I think it's pretty opaque at the moment. It's good that we're talking, but there's really nothing to report on right now. And you know that the product business for us is actually quite small. We tend to be a little bit more insulated, I think, from the trade talks compared to maybe other companies. But too early to tell in terms of what it will mean to the licensing discussions.
至於兩國之間的貿易談判會如何影響我們達成解決方案的可能性或機會,我認為現在下結論還為時過早。我覺得目前情況相當不明朗。很高興我們能進行交流,但目前真的沒有什麼值得報告的。你知道,對我們來說,產品業務其實規模很小。我認為,與其他公司相比,我們受貿易談判的影響相對較小。但現在判斷這會對許可談判產生什麼影響還為時過早。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的薩米克·查特吉。
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
I just wanted to start off, firstly, on the -- focusing a bit on the RF front end opportunity. You mentioned that most of the design wins you're seeing kind of would be more than on the RF front end go together. So I just wanted to kind of get your thoughts about how you're thinking about market share in RF front end and the early generation 5G phones relative to some of the incumbents in the space and then how should we think about sustaining that market share in kind of the second-generation, cogeneration, 5G phones. And then I have a follow-up.
首先,我想重點談談射頻前端的機會。你提到,你看到的大多數設計方案的成功都不僅限於射頻前端。所以我想了解一下您對射頻前端和早期 5G 手機市場份額的看法,以及相對於該領域的一些現有廠商,我們應該如何考慮在第二代、同代 5G 手機中維持這一市場份額。然後我還有一個後續問題。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Thanks for the question. So we look at 5G as the key entry point for RF front end business, and we're very satisfied with the ability as we started to look into the designs with the 5G content, which are specifically sub-6 spectrum as well as millimeter-wave spectrum. We actually have seen a very high percentage. Virtually, all of the 230-plus designs now for 5G content have Qualcomm modem-to-antenna design. We have seen in those devices, some of our existing incumbents continue to support and provide content for 4G, but the 5G position of Qualcomm is very strong.
謝謝你的提問。因此,我們將 5G 視為射頻前端業務的關鍵切入點,我們對 5G 內容的設計能力非常滿意,特別是 6GHz 以下頻譜以及毫米波頻譜。實際上,我們已經看到了非常高的比例。目前,超過 230 種 5G 內容設計幾乎全部採用高通調變解調器到天線的設計。我們已經看到,在這些設備中,一些現有的廠商仍在繼續支援和提供 4G 內容,但高通的 5G 地位非常強大。
What we're very happy, especially at this time as we head into the Q2 ramp of 5G, we see now as we go into second-generation designs for the second-generation devices, as well lower tiers, we have maintained that pattern. So we're now going into design #2 and design #3 that maintain the 5G content on the RF front end, and we're very happy with that development.
尤其在我們即將進入 5G 第二季加速部署之際,我們非常高興地看到,隨著我們進入第二代設備以及更低層級設備的第二代設計階段,我們一直保持著這種模式。所以我們現在進入了設計#2和設計#3階段,這兩個階段在射頻前端保留了5G內容,我們對這項進展非常滿意。
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Got it. If I can just follow-up. You've talked extensively about the opportunity on 5G handsets. If you can help me quantify the revenue opportunity outside of handsets, be it like small cells or IoT that is also tied to a 5G opportunity but outside of handsets. Just looking for some color there.
知道了。如果可以的話,我想跟進一下。您已經詳細討論過 5G 手機帶來的機會。如果您能幫我量化手機以外的收入機會,例如小型基地台或物聯網等與 5G 機會相關但又不屬於手機範疇的領域,那就太好了。只是想為那裡增添一些色彩。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Yes. So let me give you the first part of the answer, and I'll ask Akash to add. Devices and smartphones are definitely going to be the vast majority of the earnings, especially as we head in 2020 as how 5G is going to ramp. However, we are happy about the 5G traction in all of our adjacents from upgrade of telematics in automotive to 5G. We've seen a lot of industrial IoT applications. And even our small cell business is getting traction, including with traditional infrastructure vendors. So we expect that to be a growth story in -- as we head into 2021 and '22. In '20, the one that I want to single out is CPE for mobile broadband, and that's part of a lot of the carriers' deployment of 5G in fixed wireless.
是的。那麼,我先給答案的第一部分,然後請 Akash 補充。裝置和智慧型手機肯定會佔據絕大部分收入,尤其是在 2020 年 5G 將迅速普及的情況下。然而,我們很高興看到 5G 在我們所有相關領域都取得了進展,從汽車遠端資訊處理升級到 5G。我們已經看到了很多工業物聯網應用。甚至我們的小型基地台業務也獲得了發展動力,包括與傳統基礎設施供應商的合作。因此,我們預計這將成為 2021 年和 2022 年的成長故事。2020 年,我想特別指出的是行動寬頻的 CPE,這是許多營運商在固定無線網路中部署 5G 的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
Congrats on the strong results and 5G color. I just wanted to see about the seasonality in the QCT side. Steve -- or QTL side, excuse me. Steve, you mentioned that you were happy it was returning to a seasonal pattern. You talked a little bit, I think, Akash, about what it was going to do in the fiscal second quarter. Can you just talk about the seasonality of that? Is the range that you've given in the past of kind of the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, is that the new range in kind of the weak quarters and the stronger quarters to be closer to the $1.4 million you just did? Or how should we think about that as the year progresses?
恭喜你們取得如此優異的成績,並展現出5G的活力。我只是想了解QCT方面的季節性情況。史蒂夫——或者更準確地說,是QTL方面的人,抱歉。史蒂夫,你提到你很高興它恢復了季節性規律。阿卡什,我想你剛才稍微談到了公司在第二財季的計劃。能談談這方面的季節性嗎?您之前給出的區間是 11 億美元到 12 億美元,那麼新的區間,在業績疲軟的季度和業績強勁的季度,是否更接近您剛才給出的 140 萬美元呢?隨著時間的推移,我們該如何看待這個問題?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Ross. This is Akash. I think that's a fair way of thinking about it. We just reported actuals for the September quarter at $1.16 billion, and we're guiding the December quarter at the midpoint of $1.4 billion and the March quarter at $1.1 billion. So that kind of gives you a sense of the seasonality in the business, and those are fair numbers to use to project the business going forward.
是的,羅斯。這是阿卡什。我認為這種思考方式很合理。我們剛剛公佈了 9 月份季度的實際收入為 11.6 億美元,我們預計 12 月份季度的收入為 14 億美元(中位數),3 月份季度的收入為 11 億美元。這樣就能讓你對業務的季節性有所了解,而且這些數字也相當合理,可以用來預測業務未來的發展。
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
And as my follow-up, perhaps one for Cristiano on the revenue for MSM side of things. Just would hope to get a little more color on why is that going down sequentially in your fiscal first quarter guide. And then perhaps, more importantly, it seems like it's up very nicely, almost 12% year-over-year in fiscal '19. And still -- despite that sequential decline in your fiscal first quarter, still up, the better part of 10% there. I was wondering, what's driving the sequential decline, the year-over-year increases? And then if that's all pre-5G, how should we think about the lift off of this level?
作為我的後續問題,或許可以問問克里斯蒂亞諾關於主流媒體收入的問題。希望能更詳細地了解為什麼在第一財季的業績指引中,這個數字會逐季下降。而且,或許更重要的是,它似乎成長得非常不錯,2019 財年年增近 12%。即便如此——儘管貴公司第一財季業績環比下滑,但仍實現了近 10% 的成長。我想知道,是什麼因素導致了環比下降和同比增長?如果以上內容都發生在 5G 時代之前,那麼我們該如何看待 5G 時代之後的發展呢?
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
All right, Ross. So our ASP for MSM has a very high sensitivity to high and premium tiers. And as -- if you look at what happened in the quarter and the guide for the next one, I think consistent with what we said on the last earnings call that we're going to see the dynamic throughout the calendar year.
好的,羅斯。因此,我們面向 MSM 的平均售價對高階和高級套餐非常敏感。而且——如果你看看本季發生的事情以及下一季的展望,我認為正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說,我們將在整個日曆年中看到這種動態。
We have some weaker market, weaker demand in China. And that, combined with Huawei gaining share in domestic China as well. That's one dynamic. The other dynamic is OEMs cancel some of the 4G flagships and move their portfolio towards 5G, getting ahead of the launch. So that creates basically a change in the composition of the MSM because of the high and premium tier units as we go to that transition.
中國市場需求疲軟,我們面臨一些市場低迷的情況。再加上華為在中國國內市場份額的不斷增長。這是其中一種動態。另一個動態是,OEM廠商取消了一些4G旗艦機型,並將產品組合轉向5G,搶佔5G市場先機。因此,隨著我們朝著這個過渡階段邁進,由於高級和特級單位的出現,MSM 的組成基本上發生了變化。
However, the inflection point for Q2 is where you started to see the effect. When we talk about it, the 1.5x. If anything, the guide that we provided in Q2, contemplates the current market environment, the typical seasonality of our business, no significant changes in OEM share and does not include yet the ramp of the Apple business, you'll see that change just with the 1.5, which in average has higher ASP content on the modem plus the RF front end.
然而,第二季的拐點就是你開始看到效果的地方。當我們談到它時,是 1.5 倍。如果有什麼影響的話,那就是我們在第二季度提供的指南考慮到了當前的市場環境、我們業務的典型季節性、OEM份額沒有重大變化,並且還沒有包括蘋果業務的增長,你只會在1.5版本中看到這種變化,該版本在調製解調器和射頻前端的平均ASP含量更高。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.
下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Ramsay。
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst
Congratulations, Akash. I guess, Steve, my first question is around the 5G unit numbers that you gave for calendar '20. I guess the midpoint that you guys have laid out is 200 million units. Maybe you could give a little color on what you're assuming the geographic mix of those units is. In particular, what percentage might be China versus rest of world? And then I have a follow-up.
恭喜你,阿卡什。史蒂夫,我想問的第一個問題是關於你給出的 2020 年 5G 設備數量的數據。我猜你們設定的中間值是 2 億輛。或許您可以稍微描述一下您認為這些單元的地理組成是怎麼樣的。具體來說,中國佔世界其他地區的百分比是多少?然後我還有一個後續問題。
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Matt, this is Akash. So the way we thought about the 5G forecast for 2020 is a couple of ways. We looked at the tops-down of how transitions have typically happened in previous generations. And the 2 things that are different with 5G versus transition from 3G to 4G is China is adopting 5G at the same time as the other geographies versus in 4G, they were a couple of years late. And then also, within 5G, we're seeing multiple tiers of products being launched simultaneously, which we did not have for 4G. So that's why we think the intensity of the 5G rollout is actually faster. And you have China as a big portion of it happening already in the life cycle.
馬特,這位是阿卡什。所以,我們對 2020 年 5G 預測的思考方式主要有以下幾點。我們從上到下研究了前幾代人轉型通常是如何發生的。5G 與從 3G 過渡到 4G 的兩個不同之處在於,中國與其他地區同時採用 5G,而 4G 時代,中國則晚了幾年。此外,在 5G 領域,我們看到多個層級的產品同時推出,這是 4G 時代所沒有的。所以這就是為什麼我們認為 5G 的部署速度實際上更快。而中國已經佔據了生命週期中很大一部分。
Of course, in addition to that, we're obviously talking to all of our OEM customers, and we have a very good sense of how many devices they are planning to launch over the next several months with 5G and at what price points, and that also allows us to inform our tops-down forecast.
當然,除此之外,我們顯然也在與所有 OEM 客戶溝通,我們非常清楚他們計劃在未來幾個月推出多少款支援 5G 的設備以及價格點,這也有助於我們進行自上而下的預測。
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst
Got it. That's really helpful. As my follow-up, a quick one for Alex on the licensing agreements. And obviously, we're all encouraged to see the progress you've made on 5G. There's also been this dynamic of SEP-only licenses become a bigger piece of the mix and some implications for the implied royalty rate. I know that moves around a bit. But I think you guys talked about in an answer to an earlier question about how to model the QTL business going forward. I wonder if we're now at relative steady state for an implied royalty rates as we go forward. Any comments there would be helpful.
知道了。這真的很有幫助。作為後續,我還有一個關於許可協議的問題想問 Alex。顯然,我們都對你們在 5G 方面取得的進展感到鼓舞。此外,SEP 專屬授權的佔比越來越大,這對隱含版稅率產生了一定影響。我知道它會稍微移動一下。但我認為你們在之前對一個問題的回答中談到瞭如何建立 QTL 業務的未來模型。我想知道,隨著我們不斷向前發展,隱含版稅率是否已經處於相對穩定狀態。任何評論都將不勝感激。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
So I think that may be a fair way to look at it. But I think what -- the way you should look at it for guidance is we're guiding revenue. And so as we noted, we're going to see seasonality, and we're going to see the remaining quarters at the range that we identified. And of course, that's without the Huawei numbers. But we have made really good progress with signing up 5G agreements. We have over 75 agreements now in place since we started our 5G licensing program. So I think that reflects a very strong IP position. But I think, again, if you look to our guidance on revenue, that's probably the easiest way to think about it.
所以我認為這或許是一種合理的看待問題的方式。但我認為,你應該這樣看待它:我們是在預測收入。正如我們所指出的,我們將看到季節性因素,並且我們將看到剩餘季度的波動範圍與我們先前確定的範圍一致。當然,這還不包括華為的數據。但我們在簽署5G協議方面取得了非常好的進展。自從我們啟動 5G 牌照發放計畫以來,目前已簽署超過 75 項協議。所以我認為這反映了我們在智慧財產權領域非常強大的地位。但我認為,如果你看看我們對收入的預期,這可能是最簡單的思考方式。
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
And Matt, this is Akash. Just a quick reminder that our revenue guidance numbers does not include Huawei. So as that gets resolved, that would be incremental to the range.
馬特,這位是阿卡什。再次提醒一下,我們的營收預期數據不包括華為。因此,隨著這個問題的解決,範圍也會增加。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
On the March quarter QCT guide, so units in March quarter for MSM units are typically down seasonally. You're obviously guiding revenues up mid-teens on the 5G ramp. So is that all or even maybe more than 100% due to increases in revenue per MSM? Like, is it that the 5G ramp itself in content is enough to offset the normal seasonal decline in unit shipments? Or are you seeing kind of like an ending of the flush that we've been having and maybe a reversal with some fills as the new products get in? How do we think about that, that unit versus ASP trend in that -- embedded in that March quarter revenue guide for chipsets?
根據 3 月季度 QCT 指南,MSM 單位在 3 月季度的單位數量通常會因季節性因素而下降。很明顯,你們預計隨著 5G 的普及,營收將成長 15% 左右。所以,這全部甚至超過 100% 的收益都是因為每 MSM 的收入成長所造成的嗎?也就是說,5G 在內容領域的快速成長是否足以抵銷設備出貨量正常的季節性下降?還是你認為我們目前經歷的這種沖刷趨勢即將結束,隨著新產品的上市,可能會出現一些產品補貨的情況?我們該如何看待晶片組季度營收預期中反映的單位售價與平均售價的趨勢?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Stacy. So there are a couple of factors. This is Akash, by the way. There are a couple of factors that affect our second quarter numbers for units and ASP. You're correct about the seasonally lower quarter, but that is also offset by a stronger mix because we launched our new premium tier chip and new high tier chip during that quarter as well. So there is a mixed implication before we get to the 5G benefit. And then the third factor is our -- what we have disclosed previously, which is with 5G devices on a like-for-like device basis, we expect 1.5x monetization as a combination of the chipset and the RF front end revenue on top of it. So those are kind of the 3 factors that impact the volume and price revenue per MSM mix in the quarter.
是的,斯黛西。所以這其中有幾個因素。順便說一下,這位是阿卡西。影響我們第二季銷售量和平均售價數據的因素很多。您說的沒錯,這個季度是季節性淡季,但由於我們在這個季度也推出了新的高階晶片和新的高級晶片,所以產品組合更加均衡,抵消了淡季的影響。所以在談到 5G 的好處之前,還有一些複雜的含義需要理解。第三個因素是我們先前揭露的,在同等條件下,5G 設備預計貨幣化速度將達到 1.5 倍,這包括晶片組和射頻前端的收入。所以,以上就是影響本季每 MSM 組合銷售量和價格收入的三個因素。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
And maybe to follow-up on that. So you mentioned 1.5x content increase. But at the same time, you also meant multiple tiers launching simultaneously, which is something that we didn't really see in 4G. So how do we think about that, I guess, that differential of those drivers on content increase overall versus the general mix of tiers that are launching? And do you think that is enough to keep revenue per MSM rising through 2020 -- through fiscal 2020 as 5G becomes more mainstream?
或許還需要跟進此事。你提到內容增加了1.5倍。但同時,你的意思是多個層級同時推出,這在 4G 中是很少見的。那麼,我們該如何看待這些驅動因素對整體內容成長的影響,以及它們與即將推出的各種層級組合之間的差異呢?你認為這足以保證每百萬用戶收入在 2020 年(即 2020 財年)持續成長,尤其是在 5G 逐漸普及的情況下嗎?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So the way we think about the 1.5x is really for a given tier device. So comparing a premium tier to a premium tier device when you go from 5G -- 4G to 5G, the revenue opportunity increases by 1.5x, and this would also apply to the tiers as it penetrates further down. And so you should think of that as a mechanism of modeling our business as the mix improves from 4G to 5G.
是的。所以我們認為 1.5 倍的效能提升實際上是針對特定等級的設備而言的。因此,當從 5G 升級到 5G 時,高階設備之間的收入機會將增加 1.5 倍,隨著 5G 技術進一步滲透到其他層級,這一規律也將適用。因此,你應該把這看作是隨著網路組合從 4G 轉向 5G 轉變,我們業務建模的一種機制。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯。
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
I actually just want to focus a little bit back just on the pricing you guys are getting. So I realize it could be down a little bit in December quarter. But so 2 really clarifications. If Huawei does come back, would you get an implied ASP that goes up or down? And then secondly, how do we think about that kind of ramping over the next 12 months? I mean, I think most models have it going up a few dollars, but is that right or do you guys see that need to be changed after seeing the mix come through?
我其實想稍微再重點說說你們的價格。所以我知道12月份的季度可能會略有下降。但還有兩點需要澄清。如果華為回歸,其隱含平均售價會上升還是下降?其次,我們該如何看待未來 12 個月的這種成長速度?我的意思是,我覺得大多數模型的價格都會上漲幾美元,但這樣對嗎?還是你們在看到最終的混音版本後覺得需要做出一些改變?
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
So this is Alex. You're asking about the -- on the licensing side? Or...
這位是亞歷克斯。您問的是-關於授權方面的事嗎?或者...
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP
Okay. Look, again, the way we think about it is that -- Akash maybe will weigh in here. The way we think about it is that Huawei is incremental, and I'm not sure what more to say to that other than what we've already provided by way of guide.
好的。你看,我們的想法是──阿卡什或許會對此發表意見。我們認為華為的發展是漸進式的,除了我們已經透過指南提供的內容之外,我不知道還能說什麼。
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst
Okay. I guess maybe we return to the hallway piece that if that comes back, is that -- are you going to be increasing ASPs? Or do you think that the ASP should be flattish or similar?
好的。我想我們或許可以回到走廊那部分,如果這種情況再次出現,那就是──你們會提高平均售價嗎?或者您認為平均銷售價格應該比較平坦或類似?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. The way -- this is Akash, Mitch. The way you should think about Huawei is we don't have Huawei units or revenue contemplated in the QTL guide at this point. So when Huawei gets included into the guide, it would be based on what their device ASP is and our licensing deal with them. So it will just fall out of the agreement that we end up having with Huawei.
是的。路——這是阿卡什,米奇。你應該這樣理解華為:目前我們在 QTL 指南中還沒有考慮華為的銷售或收入。因此,當華為被納入該指南時,將取決於他們的設備平均售價以及我們與他們的授權協議。所以,這部分內容最終會從我們與華為達成的協議中剔除。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。
Roderick B. Hall - MD
Roderick B. Hall - MD
I wanted to just go back to the progress of 5G and particularly, millimeter wave, Akash. And I wonder, Cristiano, if you could talk a little bit about of the 230 wins -- or maybe, Steve, you want to address this. How many of those have millimeter wave attached to them or at least some version of them? And then as we get to the flagship launch at the beginning of next year, proportionally, how does it look? And then as we get to the end of next year, how does that look? Do we get to most phones by the end of next year, having millimeter wave attach or some smaller proportion? Could you just walk us through that? And then I have a follow-up.
Akash,我只想回顧一下 5G,特別是毫米波技術的發展。克里斯蒂亞諾,我想知道你是否可以談談你的 230 場勝利——或者,史蒂夫,你想談談這個嗎?其中有多少台設備帶有毫米波功能,或至少帶有某種形式的毫米波功能?那麼,到了明年年初的旗艦產品發表會,從比例來看,情況如何呢?那麼到了明年年底,情況又會如何呢?到明年年底,我們能否讓大多數手機都具備毫米波接收功能,或至少有一小部分手機具備此功能?您能給我們詳細講解一下嗎?然後我還有一個後續問題。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Rod, thanks for the question. So the way to think about it, it's pretty much at this point by market. For example, the United States market, all of the devices they have launched, there is a requirement for millimeter wave that is expected to utilize by all of the -- 3 of the 4 carriers right now. And therefore, we have seen the initial launches of millimeter wave going into 2020. The current planning assumption is you're going to start to see millimeter wave also coming in the Korea market. It's going to come into the Japan market. And the later part of '20 and beginning 2021, you start to see that in Europe. And that's how it's going to change the mix.
羅德,謝謝你的提問。所以,從這個角度來看,目前基本上是用市場來劃分的。例如,在美國市場,他們推出的所有設備都需要毫米波,預計目前 4 家營運商中的 3 家都將使用毫米波。因此,我們看到毫米波技術在 2020 年首次應用。目前的規劃假設是,毫米波技術也將開始進入韓國市場。它將進入日本市場。2020 年下半年和 2021 年初,歐洲開始出現這種情況。這就是它將如何改變組合的方式。
So right now, you should look at some of the China launches that we're going to see in '20. There are going to be sub-6. And Europe in '20, the first half will be sub-6. Japan, Korea and the United States are going to have millimeter wave. That's how to think about it.
所以現在,你應該關註一下我們將在 2020 年看到的一些中國新品發布。肯定會有低於6秒的成績。2020 年上半年,歐洲的比賽場次將低於 6 場。日本、韓國和美國將會採用毫米波技術。可以這樣想。
Roderick B. Hall - MD
Roderick B. Hall - MD
And is it your -- Cristiano, just to follow that up. Is it your assumption then or our assumption should be that every market that has millimeter wave deployed in the wireless network, you would expect to see millimeter wave attached to most phones in that market? Is that correct?
還有,克里斯蒂亞諾,這是你的嗎?我再補充一下。那麼,您認為還是我們應該認為,在所有無線網路中部署了毫米波技術的市場中,大多數手機都應該支援毫米波技術?是這樣嗎?
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
That's correct. And especially because you have -- in the wireless industry today, you have probably a single SKU launched by an operator within their entire geography, even if you're going to have some markets with millimeter wave, some markets with sub-6. That has been the requirement of millimeter wave capability in many of those devices.
沒錯。尤其是因為——在當今的無線行業,運營商在其整個業務範圍內可能只會推出一個 SKU,即使有些市場使用毫米波,有些市場使用 6GHz 以下頻段。這是許多此類設備對毫米波功能的一項要求。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
I guess to follow-up on the last question. As you think about the 200 million 5G unit market plus or minus, in 2020, what percentage do you believe will have millimeter wave? And then as part of that question, can you kind of talk through the attach rate that you're seeing on RF front end for you guys at sub-6 versus millimeter wave? I would assume a much higher rate there on millimeter.
我想就上一個問題做個後續回答。考慮到 2020 年 5G 設備市場規模約為 2 億台,您認為其中有多少比例會採用毫米波技術?那麼,作為這個問題的一部分,您能否談談您在 6GHz 以下頻段和毫米波頻段的射頻前端所看到的附著率?我估計那裡的毫米級速率要高得多。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Let me answer in reverse order. So on the Snapdragon platform today, the attach rate on millimeter wave and sub-6 is the same. I think we have modem-to-antenna designs, including RF front end in all of the Snapdragon. There are very few exceptions. And sometimes, the exception is just one or another band in a very small quantity. I'll say the absolutely majority of the devices, we've been winning RF front end across millimeter wave and sub-6. It's not unique to millimeter wave. However, millimeter wave drives a little more content because unlike sub-6, you need multiple antenna modules and multiple RF chains of millimeter wave. So the content is disproportionately higher on the millimeter wave side.
讓我倒序回答。因此,目前驍龍平台上的毫米波和 Sub-6 頻段的接取率是相同的。我認為我們所有的驍龍晶片都採用了調製解調器到天線的設計,包括射頻前端。例外情況極少。有時,例外情況可能只是極少數的某個樂團。我可以說,在絕大多數裝置中,我們在毫米波和 6GHz 以下頻段的射頻前端都取得了領先地位。這並非毫米波獨有的現象。然而,毫米波驅動的內容更多一些,因為與 6 兆赫以下頻段不同,毫米波需要多個天線模組和多個射頻鏈路。因此,毫米波波段的內容不成比例地高。
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
C.J., on the mix of sub-6 versus millimeter-wave within the 200 million, at this point, we're not disclosing a mix, really. But the way to best think about it is what -- as Cristiano mentioned earlier, is by market. And so there are certain markets, U.S., and then Japan and Korea next year, where millimeter wave would be required from an operator perspective, and so those markets would have millimeter wave. So the best way to think about it is a mix of markets.
C.J.,關於2億用戶中6毫米波以下頻段與毫米波頻段的混合比例,目前我們不會透露具體的混合比例。但最好的思考方式是——正如克里斯蒂亞諾之前提到的——按市場來考慮。因此,從營運商的角度來看,某些市場(例如美國,以及明年的日本和韓國)需要毫米波,因此這些市場將會採用毫米波。所以最好的理解方式是將其視為多種市場的組合。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的Timothy Arcuri。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
I wanted to just clarify the answer that you had to a prior question on the March guidance for QCT. So are you basically implying that units are going to maybe be seasonal plus just a smidge, and most of the increase in QCT revenue in March is ASP? Is that right?
我只是想澄清一下您之前對 QCT 三月指導意見的回答。所以你的意思是說,銷售量可能只是季節性因素加上一點點成長,而3月份QCT收入的成長大部分是平均售價(ASP)的成長?是這樣嗎?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. I think the units will have kind of the regular cadence of seasonality, maybe with some increase that's driven by 5G launches. But primarily, it will be a mix of the tier mix within the chips we have and then also the 4G with this 5G mix.
是的。我認為這些單元的銷售量會呈現規律性的季節性波動,或許會因為 5G 的推出而有所成長。但主要還是我們現有晶片內部不同層級的組合,以及4G和5G的組合。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Okay. And then I guess just following on to that then, if you're not getting much of the unit benefit yet in March, obviously, you're going to eventually have to see that unit benefit. So how sustainable is the growth in QCT revenue into fiscal Q3 when you would, I would think, see much more of the unit growth in that quarter?
好的。然後我想接著說,如果你在三月還沒有獲得多少單位收益,顯然,你最終肯定會獲得這些單位收益。那麼,QCT 的營收成長在第三財季的可持續性又如何呢?我認為,第三財季的銷售成長應該會更加顯著。
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
So from a market perspective, the way we are planning our business going forward is we're assuming the current market dynamics hold. And within that, our benefit is as the transition happens to 5G. And then -- so that should be the basis for the assumptions for next year.
因此,從市場角度來看,我們未來業務的規劃方式是假設當前的市場動態保持不變。而我們的優勢就在於向 5G 過渡的過程。那麼——這應該成為明年各項假設的基礎。
Now as we have both kind of initial set of 5G launch happen and then additional 5G launches happen across flagships models later in the year, we'll see our operating margin ramp in addition to revenue per MSM as we see the benefit of 5G going to our portfolio.
現在,隨著首批 5G 產品陸續上市,今年稍後旗艦機型也將推出更多 5G 產品,我們將看到 5G 為我們的產品組合帶來益處,同時每百萬用戶收入也將成長,從而提升我們的營業利潤率。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Cristiano, I just have a couple of questions. Maybe first off on the 5G outlook for calendar 2020. You're talking about 200 million units at the midpoint, and I know other chip makers have reported in the last week or so were talking more like 300 million units globally for 5G next year. I just wanted to sort of delve in a little bit into your assumptions. Are you expecting the large flagship launches next year to be only 5G? Or do you expect global flagships to also be 4G in that outlook? And anything you can tell us about what your assumptions are for China within that 5G outlook you've given would be very helpful.
克里斯蒂亞諾,我只有幾個問題。首先,我們來看看2020年5G的發展前景。你說的中間值是 2 億顆,但我知道其他晶片製造商在過去一周左右的報告中表示,他們明年 5G 的全球需求量更接近 3 億顆。我只是想稍微探究一下你的假設。你認為明年發表的大型旗艦機型都只會支援 5G 嗎?或者,您是否預期全球旗艦機型也將支援 4G?如果您能告訴我們您對中國在 5G 前景的假設,那將非常有幫助。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Excellent question. So let me break that down. As we said earlier in this earnings call, I think Akash also mentioned this, we are assuming existing market dynamics. And I think that's why you probably see some of a more conservative estimate. If you believe that there is a pent-up demand for 5G devices, and it's kind of consistent with all the transitions, you could have a change in replacement rates, and that's going to drive a bigger market. Bigger market is even better news for Qualcomm. So we're just assuming existing market dynamics in our projections.
問得好。讓我來詳細解釋一下。正如我們在本次財報電話會議上早些時候所說,我認為阿卡什也提到過這一點,我們假設的是現有的市場動態。我認為這就是為什麼你會看到一些比較保守的估計。如果你認為市場對 5G 設備有被壓抑的需求,而這種需求與所有轉型趨勢相符,那麼設備的更換率可能會發生變化,這將推動市場規模的擴大。更大的市場對高通來說當然是個好消息。因此,我們的預測只是假設了現有的市場動態。
Now going back to the outlook on '20. We talk a lot about the dynamics on Q2, but maybe to add to the prior question, you should expect, as we get into the second half of '20, then we're going to see the addition of Apple volumes. And so that's -- you should think about really a 5G ramp for Qualcomm in 2020.
現在讓我們回到2020年的展望。我們經常談論第二季度的動態,但也許可以補充之前的問題,你應該預料到,隨著我們進入 2020 年下半年,我們將看到蘋果銷量的增加。所以,你應該認真考慮高通在 2020 年的 5G 擴張計畫。
Your last question about China. The order of magnitude of deployment in China is significant. And we said during the script that it's -- now the projection is 1 million in gNodeB base stations by 2020. That's going to drive a very aggressive migration. So China could also be upside if the market dynamics don't hold and you have higher replacement rates. And also, if you assume that the current Huawei share gains in China, which we're assuming as our going assumption, if that changes and get to some more normal levels, that's upside as well.
你最後一個關於中國的問題。在中國的部署規模非常巨大。我們在劇本中說過,現在的預測是到 2020 年將有 100 萬個 gNodeB 基地台。這將引發一場非常大規模的遷移。因此,如果市場動態發生變化,且替換率較高,那麼中國也可能成為上漲點。而且,如果我們假設華為目前在中國的市場份額有所增長(這也是我們目前的假設),如果這種情況發生變化並達到更正常的水平,那也是上漲的空間。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow-up here. Just to clarify on the RF front end side. When you talk about modem to antenna and 5G, are you also including 4G modules, 4G RF modules, like low band, mid, high band, et cetera? Or are we really talking about ultra-high band RF?
我可以在這裡問一個後續問題嗎?澄清一下射頻前端方面的問題。當您談到調變解調器到天線和 5G 時,您是否也包含 4G 模組、4G 射頻模組,例如低頻段、中頻段、高頻段等等?還是我們其實是在討論超高頻段射頻?
And also just on millimeter wave because I know there's a lot of investors sort of questioning the viability of millimeter wave at the moment. What are you doing in your second-generation millimeter wave platforms to improve things like battery life? Or how do we think performance is going to pick up here?
另外,也想談談毫米波,因為我知道目前有許多投資人對毫米波的可行性表示質疑。你們在第二代毫米波平台上做了哪些工作來改善電池續航時間等方面的問題?或者我們認為這裡的業績會如何提升?
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Okay. Maybe 2 questions. Let me try to go quickly to them. So the first one is we have been very focused in 5G as the entry point. So we have been winning RF front end in the 5G mid-band, in the 3.5 band, in some cases, in some of the reform bands as well, the lowest frequencies as well as millimeter wave. It's both. We continue to see the incumbents providing the 4G, but I point you to what we're going to see in 2020, especially with dynamic spectrum sharing. It's going to be the reforming of existing 4G bands, and we expect that to be an expansion of our existing 5G RF front end solution. So that was the first question.
好的。或許兩個問題。我盡量快點過去。所以第一點是,我們一直非常關注 5G,並將其作為切入點。因此,我們在 5G 中頻段、3.5 頻段,以及某些情況下,在一些改革頻段、最低頻率和毫米波頻段的射頻前端領域都取得了勝利。兩者兼具。我們仍然看到現有業者提供 4G 服務,但我向你們指出,2020 年我們將看到什麼,尤其是在動態頻譜共享方面。這將是對現有 4G 頻段的改造,我們預計這將是我們現有 5G 射頻前端解決方案的擴展。這是第一個問題。
If you -- can you remind me of the second question? On the millimeter wave performance. Yes. So as we launch a new technology, there's a lot of features that come across the device and the infrastructure, and they don't come all day 1. So some of the initial, I think, battery life or even terminal that was experienced by millimeter wave, in the first generation chipset, they've already been addressed with software updates, and we've seen a full day of battery life on existing first generation chipset. As we go to the second-generation Snapdragon, we see with -- across process node and evolution of our modern technology also significant improvements in battery life area for the millimeter wave footprint as well as terminals.
如果你能提醒我第二個問題嗎?關於毫米波性能。是的。因此,當我們推出一項新技術時,設備和基礎設施中會包含許多功能,這些功能不會在第一天就全部實現。我認為,毫米波技術在第一代晶片組中遇到的一些初期問題,例如電池續航時間甚至終端問題,已經通過軟體更新得到了解決,我們已經看到現有的第一代晶片組實現了一整天的電池續航時間。隨著我們邁向第二代驍龍處理器,我們看到-隨著製程節點和現代技術的演進,毫米波晶片以及終端的電池續航力也得到了顯著提升。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Srini Pajjuri with SMBC.
下一個問題來自SMBC的Srini Pajjuri。
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst
A couple of follow-ups, actually. I guess first on the 5G ASP boost. There has been a lot of talk about the chips at ASP boost. But I'm just curious, I mean, do you see any benefit on the QTL side. I know -- I think most of the 4G premium phones are probably already hitting your cap. But as we transition to 5G, what sort of benefit, if any, do you see on the QTL side?
實際上,還有幾個後續問題。我猜首先是 5G ASP 的提升。ASP Boost 晶片引發了許多討論。但我只是好奇,我的意思是,你認為 QTL 方面有什麼好處嗎?我知道——我認為大多數4G高階手機可能已經達到你的預算上限了。但隨著我們向 5G 過渡,您認為 QTL 方面會有哪些好處(如果有的話)?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Srini, this is Akash. When -- again, kind of going back to history, what has happened from 3G to 4G and previous generations, we have seen typically an increase in replacement rates and an increase in ASPs when we go to a new generation. So that is certainly something that is possible and maybe even likely with 5G.
Srini,我是 Akash。再說一遍,回顧歷史,從 3G 到 4G 以及之前的幾代技術,我們通常會看到,當進入新一代技術時,更換率和平均售價都會增加。所以這當然是有可能的,而且隨著 5G 的發展,這甚至很有可能實現。
For our planned -- business planning purposes, we are -- as we said earlier, we are planning based on a market being consistent, and then within that, having a transition to 5G. So that could be an upside opportunity for us. That's not included.
就我們計劃的業務規劃而言,正如我們之前所說,我們的規劃是基於市場保持穩定,然後在此基礎上過渡到 5G。所以這可能是我們獲得上行機會的機會。不包括在內。
And then you could also see users with low and mid-tier devices upgrade and buy higher tier devices because of the increased capability that 5G brings, and that could help QTL ASPs as well. But again, that is not modeled into our business at this point.
此外,由於 5G 帶來的更強大的功能,擁有低階和中階設備的用戶可能會升級並購買更高階的設備,這也有助於 QTL ASP 的發展。但目前,這還沒有融入我們的業務模式。
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
And one quick point. With our early R&D and IP leadership, it's just a really good context for driving new agreements.
還有一點要補充。憑藉我們早期在研發和智慧財產權方面的領先地位,這為達成新的協議創造了非常好的環境。
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Research Analyst
Got it. And then, Akash, on the margin front. At QCT, I know you said the margins will improve over the next few quarters. But my question is, on a like-for-like basis, does 5G give you better margins? Meaning, if I go back to the second half of 2017, I think you hit your 20%, 21% EBIT margin for QCT. At that time, your revenue run rate was close to $1 billion. So when we get back to that kind of revenue run rate, do you expect the margins to be higher than the 20%, 21%?
知道了。然後,還有阿卡什,在邊緣地帶。我知道您在 QCT 上說過,未來幾季利潤率將會提高。但我的問題是,在同等條件下,5G 是否能帶來更高的利潤率?也就是說,如果我回顧 2017 年下半年,我認為 QCT 的 EBIT 利潤率達到了 20% 或 21%。當時,你們的年化收入接近10億美元。所以,當我們恢復到那種營收水準時,你預期利潤率會高於 20% 或 21% 嗎?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So Srini, at this point, we're not disclosing kind of separate margins for our 4G versus our 5G business or a specific target for long-term margins, but this is something we'll address at the Analyst Day. So if you can stay tuned for a couple of weeks, and we'll plan to address it there.
是的。所以 Srini,目前我們不會透露 4G 業務與 5G 業務的單獨利潤率,也不會設定長期利潤率的具體目標,但我們會就此在分析師日上進行討論。所以,如果您能再關注幾週,我們計劃在那裡解決這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho.
下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的Vijay Rakesh。
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
I was just wondering, just looking at the RF front end wins that you're seeing into next year, if you could give us exiting calendar '20 what you see would be the mix of RFFE within your QCT, or give us some dollar number on what you think your RFFE would be.
我只是想問一下,看看你們明年在射頻前端方面的斬獲,你們能否給我們預測一下2020年的日曆,你們的QCT中射頻前端的構成會是什麼樣的,或者給我們一個你們認為射頻前端會達到多少美元的估算。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Thanks for the question. We're not really breaking that down, but we did provide that metric of 1.5x. That includes both the ASP increase in the 5g modem as well as our RF front end content in average per tier.
謝謝你的提問。我們並沒有對此進行詳細分析,但我們確實提供了 1.5 倍這個指標。這包括 5G 調變解調器的平均售價成長以及我們各級射頻前端內容的平均價格成長。
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Got it. And on the QCT side, I know you guys talked about a nice pickup with the mix going to 5G. What kind of ASP assumptions are you assuming on that as you go through 2020, especially as you might have some other mature suppliers entering the market?
知道了。在 QCT 這邊,我知道你們討論過隨著混音達到 5G,會有不錯的提升。展望 2020 年,您對平均售價 (ASP) 作了怎樣的假設?尤其是一些成熟的供應商可能會進入市場。
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Look, we -- the way to think about it is we always have competition, and there's nothing that we see in the market on the competitive side that is different than what we expected, and that is factored in our projections.
你看,我們——看待這個問題的方式是,我們始終面臨競爭,而我們在市場上看到的競爭情況與我們的預期並無不同,這一點也已納入我們的預測中。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Walsh with Oppenheimer.
我們的下一個問題來自帕特里克·沃爾什和奧本海默的對話。
Patrick Walsh;Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Patrick Walsh;Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Sorry about that. I had it on mute. I just had 2 quick questions. So the first question on the RF side. When you hear the traditional RF players, Qorvo, Skyworks, talk, they talk about a change in RF content from either 18 to 20 going to 25. And so my question for you, it seems like initially, you guys are focused more on that incremental $5 to $7. Is that a fair assessment? And is the majority of that $5 to $7 made up by millimeter wave? And then if we think about that core 18 to 20 that's been historically there, are you really aiming for these kind of refarmed bands? And then I guess, within the bands, can you -- do you have -- I know you have BAW capacity via TDK, I wouldn't imagine it's too much just given that Avago and Qorvo have probably, I think, 80% of the capacity out there. So would you be targeting more like low-band pads?
抱歉。我把它調成了靜音。我只有兩個問題要問。那麼,關於射頻方面的第一個問題。當你聽到傳統的無線射頻播放器,如 Qorvo、Skyworks 談論時,他們會談到射頻內容的變化,從 18 到 20,再到 25。所以我的問題是,看起來你們一開始更關注的是那5到7美元的增量。這種評價公平嗎?那5到7美元的大部分收入是否來自毫米波?那麼,如果我們想想歷史上一直存在的那 18 到 20 個核心樂隊,你真的想打造這些重新培養的樂隊嗎?然後我想,在這些頻段內,你們能——你們有——我知道你們透過TDK擁有BAW容量,考慮到Avago和Qorvo可能佔據了市場上80%的容量,我想應該不會太多。所以你們的目標客群會是低頻段的耳墊嗎?
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO
Patrick, in terms of kind of the ASP question you asked, I think the examples you're quoting was for premium tier device. Really, as you look at different regions and you look at different frequency bands in a given region and tier of device, those numbers could be vastly different. So I think it's very difficult to generalize in terms of ASP advantages. The way you should think about it is there is a certain market for RF front end that exists. With 5G coming in, that is going to expand, and it's going to create an opportunity for us to significantly improve our share in the market. And then on top of that, as Cristiano mentioned as DSS happens, that spectrum sharing and bands get refarmed to 5G, we'll be able to participate and further expand our revenue opportunity. So that's kind of the framework you should use.
Patrick,就你提出的 ASP 問題而言,我認為你引用的例子是針對高階設備的。實際上,當你觀察不同的地區,以及在特定地區和設備等級中觀察不同的頻段時,這些數字可能會有很大的不同。所以我覺得很難就ASP優勢來概括。你應該這樣想:射頻前端有一定的市場需求。隨著 5G 的到來,這種情況將會擴大,這將為我們創造一個大幅提高市場份額的機會。此外,正如克里斯蒂亞諾所提到的,隨著DSS的實施,頻譜共享和頻段被重新分配給5G,我們將能夠參與其中,並進一步擴大我們的收入機會。所以,這大概就是你該使用的框架。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。莫倫科夫先生,在休會之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director
Yes. Just -- I just want to thank the team, the Qualcomm team, for their hard work and the great execution through 2019. 2020 is the year of 5G. I want to thank everybody for their hard work. We're on the cusp of it, and I'm very excited about it. But thanks, everybody. See you next time.
是的。我只想感謝高通團隊,感謝他們在 2019 年的辛勤工作和出色執行。2020年是5G元年。我要感謝大家的辛苦付出。我們即將迎來這一刻,我對此感到非常興奮。謝謝大家。下次見。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。