高通 (QCOM) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

    女士們,先生們,謝謝你們的支持。

  • Welcome to the Qualcomm Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

    歡迎參加高通 2019 財年第三季度收益電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, July 31, 2019.

    (操作員說明)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製,2019 年 7 月 31 日。

  • The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853.

    今天通話的播放號碼是 (877) 660-6853。

  • International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415.

    國際來電者請撥打 (201) 612-7415。

  • The playback reservation number is 13692366.

    播放預約號為13692366。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan。

  • Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

    Lopez-Hodoyan 先生,請繼續。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝,大家下午好。

  • Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Dave Wise.

    今天的電話會議將包括 Steve Mollenkopf 和 Dave Wise 準備好的發言。

  • In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.

    此外,克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森博格將參加問答環節。

  • You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website.

    您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和本次電話會議附帶的幻燈片演示。

  • In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today.

    此外,該電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網絡直播,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。

  • During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on the website.

    在電話會議期間,我們將使用條例 G 中定義的非 GAAP 財務措施,您可以在網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的調節。

  • We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results.

    我們還將做出前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務結果的預測和估計。

  • Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

    實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中預測的事件或結果存在重大差異。

  • Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statement.

    請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們最近的 10-K,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的重要因素。

  • And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

    現在請聽高通公司首席執行官史蒂夫莫倫科普夫的評論。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝毛里西奧,大家下午好。

  • Thanks for joining us today.

    感謝您今天加入我們。

  • We executed well this quarter against challenging industry conditions.

    本季度我們在充滿挑戰的行業條件下表現出色。

  • Despite weakening demand for our 4G solutions, fiscal third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.80 per share was at the high end of our guidance range driven by improved product margins, lower R&D and SG&A and a lower tax rate.

    儘管對我們 4G 解決方案的需求減弱,但由於產品利潤率提高、研發和 SG&A 降低以及稅率降低,第三財季非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.80 美元,處於我們指導範圍的高端。

  • In QTL, following the district court's ruling, our licensees continue to perform under their agreements.

    在 QTL,根據地方法院的裁決,我們的被許可人繼續按照他們的協議履行職責。

  • In parallel, at the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, we are pursuing a partial stay in appealing the ruling.

    與此同時,在第九巡迴上訴法院,我們正在尋求部分中止對裁決的上訴。

  • Of note was the statement of interest of the Department of Justice in support of our stay motion stating that Qualcomm is likely to succeed on the merits in the appeal.

    值得注意的是,司法部支持我們暫緩動議的利益聲明指出,高通很可能在上訴中勝訴。

  • The Huawei export ban, along with the pivot from 4G to 5G, which accelerated over the past couple of months has contributed to industry conditions particularly in China that we expect will create headwinds in our next 2 fiscal quarters.

    華為出口禁令,以及過去幾個月加速的從 4G 向 5G 的轉變,對行業狀況做出了貢獻,尤其是在中國,我們預計這將在接下來的兩個財政季度造成不利影響。

  • As a result of the export ban, Huawei shifted their emphasis to building market share in the domestic China market where we do not see the corresponding benefit in product or licensing revenue.

    由於出口禁令,華為將重點轉移到在中國國內市場建立市場份額,我們沒有看到相應的產品或許可收入收益。

  • In addition, our customers in the China market are working through their existing 4G inventory and deemphasizing their second half 2019 4G launches as they shift their priorities to their 5G launches in early 2020.

    此外,我們在中國市場的客戶正在處理他們現有的 4G 庫存,並不再強調 2019 年下半年的 4G 發布,因為他們將重點轉移到 2020 年初的 5G 發布上。

  • As a result, we do not expect the typical seasonal benefits given these unique market dynamics.

    因此,鑑於這些獨特的市場動態,我們預計不會出現典型的季節性收益。

  • For the first calendar quarter of 2020, we anticipate reaching the inflection point as our financial results begin to reflect the benefits of our substantial efforts over the years to bring 5G to the market worldwide.

    對於 2020 年第一季度,我們預計將達到拐點,因為我們的財務業績開始反映我們多年來為將 5G 推向全球市場所做的巨大努力所帶來的好處。

  • Let me walk you through the dynamics of 5G rollouts.

    讓我帶您了解 5G 推出的動態。

  • 5G network rollouts are progressing at a much faster rate when compared to 4G.

    與 4G 相比,5G 網絡的推出速度要快得多。

  • We expect over 20 operators to launch 5G service and over 20 OEMs to have 5G devices in the first 12 months after the first commercial launch.

    我們預計在首次商業發布後的前 12 個月內,將有超過 20 家運營商推出 5G 服務,超過 20 家 OEM 將擁有 5G 設備。

  • This compares to 4 operators and 3 OEMs with the launch of 4G, with the major difference being that China is launching 5G in the first year.

    這與推出 4G 的 4 家運營商和 3 家 OEM 相比,主要區別在於中國是在第一年推出 5G。

  • In China, 5G commercial service was officially approved in early June, and our current estimate is that by the end of this year, the 3 operators will deploy roughly 100,000 5G base stations, which to put in context, is the equivalent of the scale of the entire network of a large U.S. wireless operator.

    在國內,5G商用服務於6月初正式獲批,我們目前預計到今年年底,三大運營商將部署約10萬個5G基站,這相當於中國的規模。美國一家大型無線運營商的整個網絡。

  • And in the U.S., 5G is being deployed across sub-6 and millimeter-wave for nationwide coverage.

    在美國,5G 正在 sub-6 和毫米波中部署以覆蓋全國。

  • Verizon has noted that they expect 3 quarters of the phones they are launching next year will be 5G.

    Verizon 指出,他們預計明年推出的手機中有四分之三將是 5G。

  • AT&T announced that they are on track for a nationwide 5G coverage in midyear 2020, and we expect the proposed T-Mobile Sprint merger to result in an accelerated nationwide 5G rollout.

    AT&T 宣布他們有望在 2020 年年中實現全國 5G 覆蓋,我們預計擬議中的 T-Mobile Sprint 合併將加速全國 5G 的推出。

  • I would add that we expect the millimeter-waves to be a mandatory requirement at all major carriers in the United States.

    我要補充一點,我們希望毫米波成為美國所有主要運營商的強制性要求。

  • Also helping to drive this accelerated transition to 5G is dynamic spectrum sharing, which enables carriers to dynamically repurpose 4G spectrum for 5G use.

    動態頻譜共享也有助於推動向 5G 的加速過渡,它使運營商能夠動態地將 4G 頻譜重新用於 5G。

  • DSS is a game-changer for the carriers and will result in a much more rapid proliferation of 5G than we have seen in prior G transitions.

    DSS 是運營商的遊戲規則改變者,將導致 5G 的擴散比我們在之前的 G 過渡中看到的要快得多。

  • Before I talk about our products, I would like to remind you of our contribution to develop the fundamental elements of 5G including innovations that enable massive MIMO, millimeter-wave, security and the deployment of 5G technologies in networks across broad spectrum allocations.

    在我談論我們的產品之前,我想提醒您我們在開發 5G 的基本要素方面所做的貢獻,包括支持大規模 MIMO、毫米波、安全性的創新以及在跨廣譜分配的網絡中部署 5G 技術。

  • This early work has resulted in a valuable IP portfolio and provided us with early insight into what products need to be developed and commercialized at scale.

    這項早期工作產生了寶貴的知識產權組合,並讓我們及早了解需要大規模開發和商業化哪些產品。

  • This will continue as 5G expands beyond Release 15 and the feature sets continue to evolve.

    隨著 5G 擴展到版本 15 之後並且功能集繼續發展,這將繼續下去。

  • Today, we are the only chipset vendor that has 5G system-level solutions, spanning both sub-6 gigahertz and millimeter-wave bands.

    今天,我們是唯一一家擁有 5G 系統級解決方案的芯片組供應商,涵蓋 sub-6 GHz 和毫米波頻段。

  • This is key to global deployments.

    這是全球部署的關鍵。

  • Our 5G system-level solutions span baseband, transceiver, RF front end and antenna elements as the components are tightly coupled together for best-in-class performance, spanning multiple KPIs including power, area and modem benchmarks.

    我們的 5G 系統級解決方案涵蓋基帶、收發器、射頻前端和天線元件,因為這些組件緊密耦合在一起以獲得一流的性能,涵蓋多個 KPI,包括功率、面積和調製解調器基準。

  • Let me now give you an update on our OEM traction.

    現在讓我向您介紹我們的 OEM 牽引力的最新情況。

  • All of the major Android OEMs have announced 5G devices for this year and as volume ramps in early 2020, device offerings will expand beyond premium tier devices.

    所有主要的 Android 原始設備製造商都宣布了今年的 5G 設備,並且隨著 2020 年初數量的增加,設備產品將擴展到高端設備之外。

  • As an example, China Mobile plans to drive 5G devices to price points under a U.S. dollar equivalent of $300 by the end of 2020, representing about 40% of the Chinese smartphone segment by price band.

    例如,中國移動計劃到 2020 年底將 5G 設備的價格降低到 300 美元以下,約佔中國智能手機價格區間的 40%。

  • Our Chinese customers have recently made product portfolio decisions consistent with that carrier objective to drive 5G into lower price bands.

    我們的中國客戶最近做出了符合運營商目標的產品組合決策,以推動 5G 進入更低的價格範圍。

  • On the product side, our 5G design wins have doubled since our last earnings call.

    在產品方面,自上次財報電話會議以來,我們的 5G 設計勝利翻了一番。

  • We now have over 150 5G designs launched or in development using our 5G chipsets.

    我們現在已經使用我們的 5G 芯片組推出或開發了 150 多種 5G 設計。

  • In addition to core chipsets, virtually all our 5G design wins are powered by our complete RF front-end solutions for 5G sub-6 and/or millimeter-wave.

    除了核心芯片組之外,幾乎我們所有的 5G 設計勝利都由我們用於 5G sub-6 和/或毫米波的完整射頻前端解決方案提供支持。

  • We are the only company today delivering an end-to-end comprehensive modem-to-antenna solution.

    我們是當今唯一一家提供端到端綜合調製解調器到天線解決方案的公司。

  • The complexity of 5G and the value of innovative solutions enables us to expand our ASPs significantly from 4G.

    5G 的複雜性和創新解決方案的價值使我們能夠從 4G 顯著擴展我們的 ASP。

  • Turning to more detail on our legal matters.

    轉向有關我們法律事務的更多細節。

  • On July 8, we filed our motion for a partial stay with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

    7 月 8 日,我們向第九巡迴上訴法院提交了部分暫緩執行的動議。

  • And as you may have seen, the Department of Justice on behalf of the United States filed a statement of interest that supports our request.

    正如您可能已經看到的那樣,司法部代表美國提交了一份支持我們請求的利益聲明。

  • We cannot predict the exact timing, but we expect the Court of Appeals to rule on our stay motion in the near future.

    我們無法預測確切的時間,但我們希望上訴法院在不久的將來對我們的暫緩動議作出裁決。

  • In the meantime, as can be seen from our results this quarter, licensees continue to perform under their agreements consistent with our view that the District Court decision does not nullify the existing license agreements.

    與此同時,從我們本季度的結果可以看出,被許可人繼續根據他們的協議履行職責,這與我們認為地方法院的判決不會取消現有許可協議的觀點一致。

  • On our appeal on the merits of the FTC matter, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals granted the request for an expedited briefing schedule.

    根據我們對聯邦貿易委員會事件的是非曲直提出的上訴,第九巡迴上訴法院批准了加快簡報時間表的請求。

  • We expect briefing to be complete by the end of the calendar year, and the court has said it will schedule the case for oral argument on the next available hearing date after briefing is completed.

    我們預計簡報會在日曆年年底完成,法院已表示將在簡報完成後安排在下一個可用的聽證會日期進行口頭辯論。

  • With regards to Huawei, we continue to pursue a negotiated resolution of the dispute, focused on a final agreement.

    關於華為,我們繼續尋求通過談判解決爭端,重點是達成最終協議。

  • Turning to QCT, on July 15, we announced our Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 Plus Mobile Platform, providing about 1 billion mobile gamers a leading flagship option for pro-like gaming devices.

    談到 QCT,7 月 15 日,我們發布了 Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 Plus 移動平台,為大約 10 億移動遊戲玩家提供專業遊戲設備的領先旗艦選擇。

  • Expanding on our China relationships, we are pleased to announce a strategic cooperation with Tencent to deliver premium 5G and gaming experiences to consumers and developers in China and other regions.

    擴大我們在中國的關係,我們很高興地宣布與騰訊達成戰略合作,為中國和其他地區的消費者和開發商提供優質的 5G 和遊戲體驗。

  • This cooperation includes joint efforts on Snapdragon-based mobile gaming devices, Snapdragon Elite Gaming, cloud gaming, AR, VR and always-connected PCs.

    此次合作包括在基於驍龍的移動遊戲設備、驍龍 Elite Gaming、雲遊戲、AR、VR 和始終連接的 PC 上的共同努力。

  • We continue to execute on our growth opportunities across automotive, AR/VR, connectivity and networking and IoT.

    我們將繼續把握汽車、增強現實/虛擬現實、連接和網絡以及物聯網領域的增長機會。

  • In compute, we are on track to see the first Snapdragon 8cx base designs to launch in the second half of calendar year 2019.

    在計算方面,我們有望在 2019 年下半年看到首批 Snapdragon 8cx 基礎設計。

  • In summary, while near-term demand trends are not surprisingly soft as the entire market and industry transitions to 5G, we are very excited with our design wins and growth in device content as 5G ramps particularly into 2020.

    總而言之,雖然隨著整個市場和行業向 5G 過渡,近期需求趨勢並不出人意料地疲軟,但隨著 5G 進入 2020 年,我們對我們的設計勝利和設備內容的增長感到非常興奮。

  • Put simply, our position at the center of developing this incredible technology represents a large opportunity for our stockholders.

    簡而言之,我們處於開發這項令人難以置信的技術的中心地位,這對我們的股東來說是一個巨大的機會。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Dave.

    我現在想把電話轉給戴夫。

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家下午好。

  • We delivered third quarter GAAP revenues of $9.6 billion, which included $4.7 billion related to the settlement with Apple and its contract manufacturers.

    我們第三季度的 GAAP 收入為 96 億美元,其中包括與 Apple 及其合同製造商達成和解的 47 億美元。

  • GAAP EPS was negatively impacted by a $2.5 billion noncash charge to income tax expense due to a write-off of a deferred tax asset resulting from recently issued U.S. tax regulations.

    GAAP 每股收益受到 25 億美元的非現金所得稅支出的負面影響,這是由於最近發布的美國稅法導致的遞延稅資產註銷所致。

  • Our non-GAAP revenues were $4.9 billion despite top line softness, non-GAAP EPS was $0.80 at the high end of our guidance range due to better QCT gross margins, lower combined R&D and SG&A expenses and a better-than-expected tax rate.

    儘管收入疲軟,但我們的非 GAAP 收入為 49 億美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.80 美元,處於我們指導範圍的高端,原因是 QCT 毛利率更高、研發和 SG&A 合併支出更低以及稅率好於預期。

  • During the quarter, SG&A expenses benefited from a faster-than-expected reduction in excess litigation expense.

    本季度,SG&A 費用受益於超額訴訟費用的減少快於預期。

  • QCT delivered revenues of $3.6 billion on 156 million MSM shipments, below the midpoint of our guidance range given a larger-than-expected impact from market weakness.

    鑑於市場疲軟的影響大於預期,QCT 在 1.56 億件 MSM 出貨量中實現了 36 億美元的收入,低於我們指導範圍的中點。

  • QCT's EBT margin was 14%, in line with our guidance, reflecting improvements in both gross margin and lower operating expenses.

    QCT 的 EBT 利潤率為 14%,符合我們的指引,反映了毛利率的改善和運營費用的降低。

  • QTL's third quarter revenues of $1.3 billion came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range and included both current period Apple royalties and the last $150 million interim payment from Huawei.

    QTL 第三季度的收入為 13 億美元,略高於我們指導範圍的中點,其中包括當期的蘋果專利使用費和華為最近的 1.5 億美元中期付款。

  • Our third quarter QTL results reflect the view that post the ruling in the FTC case, our licensing agreements remain enforceable and our licensees are expected to perform under their agreements, which they have done to date.

    我們第三季度的 QTL 結果反映了這樣一種觀點,即在 FTC 案件中作出裁決後,我們的許可協議仍然可以執行,我們的被許可人預計將根據他們迄今為止所做的協議履行職責。

  • QTL's EBT margin was 70%, above the high end of our guidance range on lower operating expenses due to a faster than anticipated reduction in excess litigation expense.

    由於超額訴訟費用的減少速度快於預期,QTL 的 EBT 利潤率為 70%,高於我們較低運營費用指導範圍的上限。

  • Turning to our outlook.

    轉向我們的前景。

  • As Steve mentioned, as we look forward over the next couple of quarters, our business is being impacted by several factors in advance of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020.

    正如史蒂夫所提到的,正如我們對未來幾個季度的展望,在 2020 年初向 5G 過渡之前,我們的業務正受到多種因素的影響。

  • We see continued weakness in China demand, Huawei gaining share inside China and our Chinese OEMs managing their inventory ahead of 5G.

    我們看到中國需求持續疲軟,華為在中國獲得份額,我們的中國 OEM 在 5G 之前管理他們的庫存。

  • We are lowering our estimates for global 3G, 4G, 5G device shipments in calendar 2019 by 100 million units to a range of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion.

    我們將 2019 年全球 3G、4G、5G 設備出貨量預測下調 1 億台至 17 億至 18 億台。

  • We now expect handset shipments to be down mid-single digits year-over-year.

    我們現在預計手機出貨量將同比下降中個位數。

  • In China through the June quarter, while device shipments from handset makers into the carriers and retailers was down only 5%, the device sell-through from carriers and retailers to consumers was more pronounced, down approximately 20% year-over-year reflecting in part a pause by consumers ahead of 5G and an uncertain macro environment.

    在中國,截至 6 月季度,雖然手機製造商向運營商和零售商的設備出貨量僅下降 5%,但從運營商和零售商向消費者的設備銷售量更為明顯,同比下降約 20%,反映在部分消費者在 5G 和不確定的宏觀環境之前暫停。

  • As a result, we have seen a meaningful build in channel inventory during the first half of calendar year 2019.

    因此,我們在 2019 年上半年看到了渠道庫存的顯著增加。

  • Over the next 2 quarters, we expect a significant impact on device shipments as sell-in and sell-through growth rates realign and channel inventory levels are drawn down in China.

    在接下來的兩個季度中,我們預計設備出貨量將受到重大影響,因為中國的銷售和銷售增長率將重新調整,渠道庫存水平將下降。

  • In other regions, including North America and Europe, we are seeing lengthening handset replacement rates impacting unit volumes as well as some softness in India and in nonhandset devices.

    在其他地區,包括北美和歐洲,我們看到手機更換率的延長影響了單位數量以及印度和非手機設備的一些疲軟。

  • Further, as a result of the trade dispute, our business is being impacted by a shift in OEM share towards Huawei as they increase their focus on domestic China sales and to a lesser extent, by the loss of direct sales to Huawei affected by the trade ban.

    此外,由於貿易爭端,我們的業務受到 OEM 份額向華為轉移的影響,因為他們增加了對中國國內銷售的關注,並且在較小程度上受到貿易影響對華為的直接銷售損失禁止。

  • Lastly, we are seeing our Chinese OEMs respond to these factors by pulling back on new 4G device orders and managing their inventory in advance of the transition to 5G in early calendar 2020.

    最後,我們看到我們的中國 OEM 廠商通過撤回新的 4G 設備訂單並在 2020 年初向 5G 過渡之前管理其庫存來應對這些因素。

  • Turning to our fiscal fourth quarter guidance.

    轉向我們的第四財季指引。

  • We expect revenues to be in the range of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.65 to $0.75.

    我們預計收入將在 43 億美元至 51 億美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.65 美元至 0.75 美元。

  • For QCT, we estimate MSM shipments to be in the range of 140 million to 160 million units, down 4% sequentially at the midpoint.

    對於 QCT,我們估計 MSM 出貨量在 1.4 億至 1.6 億台之間,按中點順序下降 4%。

  • Historically, we have seen mid-teens percentage growth in MSM shipments from our third to fourth fiscal quarter, reflecting normal seasonal strength in the latter part of the year as OEMs build for the upcoming holiday seasons.

    從歷史上看,我們看到第三至第四財季的 MSM 出貨量增長了十幾%,這反映了今年下半年正常的季節性強勢,因為原始設備製造商正在為即將到來的假期做準備。

  • The estimated lower MSM shipments in our fourth quarter are being impacted by the factors I just described.

    我們第四季度估計較低的 MSM 出貨量受到我剛才描述的因素的影響。

  • The China-related weakness is particularly impactful to QCT revenues due to our leading position with Chinese OEMs in the premium and high tiers.

    由於我們在高端和高端的中國 OEM 中處於領先地位,與中國相關的疲軟對 QCT 的收入影響尤其大。

  • We estimate QCT's EBT margins for the fourth fiscal quarter will be 13% to 15%, flat sequentially at the midpoint.

    我們估計 QCT 第四財季的 EBT 利潤率為 13% 至 15%,與中點持平。

  • We estimate QTL revenues will be in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion with EBT margins of 62% to 66%, down sequentially versus the third quarter.

    我們估計 QTL 收入將在 10 億美元至 12 億美元之間,息稅前利潤率為 62% 至 66%,較第三季度有所下降。

  • Our fourth quarter forecast does not include any revenues from Huawei with the last interim $150 million payment recognized in the third quarter.

    我們的第四季度預測不包括來自華為的任何收入以及第三季度確認的最後一筆 1.5 億美元中期付款。

  • Similarly to QCT, QTL is not seeing the typical seasonal uptick in our fourth fiscal quarter reflecting weaker device shipments.

    與 QCT 類似,QTL 在第四財季沒有出現典型的季節性增長,反映出設備出貨量疲軟。

  • We expect non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expense to be down 1% to 3% sequentially, reflecting the absence of the catch-up and employee bonus expense that occurred in our third quarter, offset by an increase in R&D spend.

    我們預計非 GAAP 合併研發和 SG&A 費用將連續下降 1% 至 3%,反映出第三季度發生的追趕和員工獎金費用被研發支出的增加所抵消。

  • We plan to remain disciplined around cost management and expect operating expenses to increase slightly from our fourth quarter run rate as revenues ramp through fiscal 2020.

    我們計劃在成本管理方面保持紀律,並預計隨著 2020 財年收入的增加,運營費用將比第四季度的運行率略有增加。

  • We estimate our fourth quarter GAAP tax rate to be 16% and our non-GAAP tax rate to be 13%.

    我們估計第四季度的 GAAP 稅率為 16%,非 GAAP 稅率為 13%。

  • We believe the 13% rate is a good proxy for both our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates going forward.

    我們認為 13% 的稅率可以很好地代表我們未來的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率。

  • As an update on our share repurchase activity, as of today, we have completed approximately 90% of the ASRs at an average price of approximately $64 per share.

    作為我們股票回購活動的最新消息,截至今天,我們已經以每股約 64 美元的平均價格完成了約 90% 的 ASR。

  • As a reminder, we expect to complete the ASRs in early September.

    提醒一下,我們預計將在 9 月初完成 ASR。

  • We are estimating 1.21 billion weighted average shares outstanding for the fourth fiscal quarter and expect to exit the fiscal year with approximately 1.16 billion shares outstanding post the completion of the ASRs.

    我們估計第四財季的加權平均流通股為 12.1 億股,並預計在 ASR 完成後以約 11.6 億股流通股結束本財年。

  • Looking beyond the quarter, we expect these market headwinds impacting our business to continue through the remainder of the calendar year and expect our revenues and earnings in our fiscal first quarter of 2020 will be in a range similar to our fourth quarter forecast.

    展望本季度之後,我們預計這些影響我們業務的市場逆風將持續到日曆年的剩餘時間,並預計我們 2020 財年第一季度的收入和收益將在與我們第四季度預測相似的範圍內。

  • We are optimistic that 5G will be a catalyst to market improvement with broad rollouts of 5G networks globally, including the U.S., China, Europe, Korea, Japan and Australia.

    我們樂觀地認為,隨著 5G 網絡在全球範圍內的廣泛部署,包括美國、中國、歐洲、韓國、日本和澳大利亞,5G 將成為市場改善的催化劑。

  • We expect 5G device volumes to ramp more meaningfully in early calendar 2020, with new flagship device launches from global and Chinese OEMs supporting 5G.

    我們預計 5G 設備數量將在 2020 年初更有意義地增長,全球和中國 OEM 廠商將推出支持 5G 的新旗艦設備。

  • In QCT as we transition to 5G, our addressable dollar content opportunity per device is up to 1.5x greater than a comparable 4G device given greater chipset complexity and our ability to capture 5G RF front-end content.

    在我們過渡到 5G 的 QCT 中,我們每台設備的可尋址美元內容機會比同類 4G 設備高出 1.5 倍,因為芯片組的複雜性更高,而且我們能夠捕獲 5G RF 前端內容。

  • We remain confident in the incremental $2 of EPS related to the longer-term contribution from the agreements signed with Apple as product shipments ramp.

    隨著產品出貨量的增加,我們對 EPS 增加 2 美元充滿信心,這與與 Apple 簽署的協議的長期貢獻有關。

  • And one final comment, we will be hosting an Analyst and Investor Day in New York on November 19 this year.

    最後一點,我們將於今年 11 月 19 日在紐約舉辦分析師和投資者日活動。

  • Please stay tuned for further details.

    請繼續關注更多詳情。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • I will now turn the call back over to Mauricio.

    我現在將把電話轉回 Mauricio。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Dave.

    謝謝你,戴夫。

  • Operator, we are now ready for questions.

    接線員,我們現在準備好提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

  • James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

    James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

  • I wanted to ask.

    我本來想問。

  • You've mentioned that a couple of different forces that are impacting demand for QCT right now, both Huawei's more internal focus on China as well as pause in demand ahead of 5G.

    您已經提到,目前有幾種不同的力量正在影響對 QCT 的需求,包括華為對中國的更多內部關注以及 5G 之前的需求暫停。

  • Can you talk a little bit about how that is impacting not only unit volumes but the pricing and mix currently?

    您能否談談這不僅會影響單位數量,還會影響當前的定價和組合?

  • And then how you're looking at the impact on, at least qualitatively, your anticipation for 5G volumes, et cetera, next year especially since we seem to be coming off of a lower base.

    然後你如何看待明年對 5G 數量等的預期的影響,至少在定性上,尤其是因為我們似乎正在脫離較低的基數。

  • Then as a follow-up, can you just talk a little bit more and give a little more color on how you may be handling any requests for renegotiation per the FTC ruling and kind of what the road map is that you've laid out for those licensees in terms of treating those requests and dealing with compliance in the interim?

    然後,作為後續行動,你能否多談一點,並就你如何根據聯邦貿易委員會的裁決處理任何重新談判的請求,以及你為之製定的路線圖,提供更多的顏色那些被許可人在處理這些請求和臨時處理合規性方面?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • This is Dave.

    這是戴夫。

  • Let me start and Cristiano will jump in.

    讓我開始,Cristiano 會加入。

  • So if you think about the dynamics in the market.

    因此,如果您考慮市場動態。

  • We called down the market 100 million units, a meaningful portion of that is related to China, where we're seeing softness.

    我們將市場下調了 1 億台,其中很大一部分與中國有關,我們看到中國市場疲軟。

  • We referenced in the comments the sell-through market to consumers being down 20% year-over-year through the first half of calendar '19 and our sell-in, down 5%.

    我們在評論中提到,到 19 年上半年,消費者的銷售市場同比下降 20%,我們的銷售下降 5%。

  • So we see the back half of the year, conversions of those growth rates, so the sell-in rates coming down more aggressively in the back half of the year.

    所以我們看到下半年,這些增長率的轉換,所以銷售率在下半年下降得更厲害。

  • That, in the back half of the year, is compounded by some runoff of channel inventory that's been built up over the first half as well.

    今年下半年,上半年積累的渠道庫存流失也加劇了這種情況。

  • And so some pronounced impacts on really Q3 with respect to the channel inventory runoff.

    因此,在渠道庫存徑流方面,對真正的第三季度產生了一些明顯的影響。

  • And so we think that the market dynamics in the market units sort of flow out a little bit in Q3 and then hitting our Q4 and our fiscal Q1 as those dynamics play out.

    因此,我們認為市場單位的市場動態在第三季度有點流出,然後隨著這些動態的發揮而影響我們的第四季度和第一財季。

  • And the way to think about how that impacts the business is first, you think about QCT.

    考慮這對業務的影響的方式首先是 QCT。

  • We typically would see, from a seasonal perspective, maybe a 15% to 17% increase in MSM shipments as we move from Q3 to Q4.

    從季節性的角度來看,從第三季度到第四季度,我們通常會看到 MSM 出貨量可能增加 15% 到 17%。

  • I mean obviously, we guided down 4%.

    我的意思是,很明顯,我們指導下調了 4%。

  • So if you think about jumping off from 156 million MSMs in Q3, that gap from what we would normally expect to see is about 35 million units.

    因此,如果您考慮在第三季度從 1.56 億個 MSM 躍升,那麼與我們通常預期看到的差距約為 3500 萬個。

  • About 2/3 of that is market-related with China being a meaningful component of that.

    其中約 2/3 與市場相關,而中國是其中重要的組成部分。

  • I would point out that a lot of the China dynamics and certainly the things related to pause before 5G are more sort of premium and high-tier dynamics that are more impactful from a revenue perspective for us.

    我要指出的是,很多中國動態,當然還有與 5G 之前暫停相關的事情,更多的是高端和高端動態,從收入的角度來看,它們對我們的影響更大。

  • And the other 1/3 would be really share shifts, there's OEM share shifts towards Huawei away from some of our OEMs as well as a little bit of share loss at the low tier, but that's not really sort of financially impactful.

    另外 1/3 將是真正的份額轉移,OEM 份額從我們的一些 OEM 轉移到華為,以及低端的一些份額損失,但這並不是真正的財務影響。

  • So that's, I think, the way to think about the impacts on the next quarter or 2 here.

    所以,我認為,這就是思考對下一季度或第二季度影響的方式。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Maybe -- so Jim, this is Cristiano.

    也許——吉姆,這是克里斯蒂亞諾。

  • Just to add some additional color.

    只是為了添加一些額外的顏色。

  • So building what Dave had said, if you remember, I think, China got authorization to launch 5G back in June.

    所以建立戴夫所說的,如果你還記得的話,我想,中國在 6 月份獲得了啟動 5G 的授權。

  • So -- and so there was a lot of uncertainty whether they will launch given the environment, they did launch.

    所以 - 所以他們是否會在考慮到環境的情況下發射存在很多不確定性,他們確實發射了。

  • And what we're seeing to some counterintuitive, but actually building confidence on the 5G transition is we had some of the OEMs cancel some of the 4G launches and moving the portfolio towards 5G designs.

    我們看到一些違反直覺但實際上對 5G 過渡建立信心的是我們讓一些 OEM 取消了一些 4G 發布並將產品組合轉向 5G 設計。

  • We're seeing a lot of requests for pulling in, and we see them in preparing for the 5G ramp at the next selling season.

    我們看到很多要求加入的請求,我們看到他們正在為下一個銷售季的 5G 坡道做準備。

  • And when we do have this, I would say, onetime impact as Huawei demand got suddenly reduced in Europe, there, we saw an increased focus of Huawei in China.

    當我們確實遇到這種情況時,我想說的是,隨著歐洲對華為的需求突然減少,我們看到了華為在中國的關注度增加。

  • That kind of changed the OEM mix.

    這改變了 OEM 組合。

  • But the general sentiment, and that's what we're seeing in the activity, is to drive as fast as possible to the 5G ramp as we bleed this inventory on the premium and high in the channel and we're seeing 5G ramping across multiple tiers, as Steve said, even at the price points of $300 and above.

    但總體情緒,也就是我們在活動中看到的,是盡可能快地推動 5G 的發展,因為我們在渠道的溢價和高位流失了這些庫存,我們看到 5G 跨越多個層次,正如史蒂夫所說,即使價格在 300 美元及以上。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • Jim, this is Alex.

    吉姆,這是亞歷克斯。

  • On the second part of your question, how are we handling requests for renegotiations?

    關於你問題的第二部分,我們如何處理重新談判的請求?

  • As you may have seen, we have had a number of requests for renegotiations come in.

    正如您可能已經看到的,我們收到了一些重新談判的請求。

  • We've also had license agreements that were in the process of renegotiation recently.

    我們最近還有一些許可協議正在重新談判中。

  • And with respect to those requests, we're ensuring essentially what we call a FRAND process that the licensee has an opportunity to drive to a fair, reasonable and nondiscriminatory result in any license agreement that's ultimately reached.

    對於這些請求,我們基本上確保被許可人有機會在最終達成的任何許可協議中獲得公平、合理和非歧視的結果,我們稱之為 FRAND 流程。

  • And so we're engaging as we always do very thoroughly with licensees, to try to get to a process that recognizes the value of our portfolio we think -- which we think is very, very good as 5G ramps.

    因此,我們一如既往地與被許可人進行非常徹底的接觸,以試圖達成一個認可我們認為我們的投資組合價值的過程——我們認為這在 5G 坡道上非常非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James 的對話。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • I guess first question is on the sell-through versus the sell-in expectations over the next couple of quarters and understand what you guys said on the revenue expectations for you that take into account some of the inventory adjustment that's going on.

    我想第一個問題是關於未來幾個季度的銷售預期與銷售預期,並了解你們對收入預期的看法,其中考慮了正在進行的一些庫存調整。

  • What are your expectations for sell-through?

    您對銷售率有何期望?

  • Does it say at this sort of down 20% year-on-year rate as we get into the 5G transition at their -- at the beginning of next year?

    當我們在明年年初進入 5G 過渡時,它是否表示以這種同比下降 20% 的速度?

  • What's embedded in the guidance?

    指南中嵌入了什麼?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Essentially, what's in our guide is we're expecting the sell-through to remain low through the rest of the calendar year, reflecting as we said, sort of some of the macro environment but also really some of the pause before 5G ramps more meaningfully next year.

    從本質上講,我們的指南中的內容是我們預計在今年餘下的時間裡銷售量將保持在較低水平,正如我們所說,這反映了一些宏觀環境,但也確實反映了 5G 更有意義地增長之前的一些停頓明年。

  • So we expect that to remain low and then the sell-in to start to converge towards that over the remainder of the year.

    因此,我們預計該價格將保持低位,然後在今年餘下的時間裡,拋售將開始向該水平靠攏。

  • And then that's just as we said compounded by the fact that there's been some channel inventory build built in the first half that will bleed off, it's -- that's more of a Q3 probably factor.

    然後正如我們所說的那樣,上半年建立的一些渠道庫存將會流失,這更可能是第三季度的一個因素。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • As a follow-up, I guess we all -- we understand that you're hoping to get a stay in the FTC ruling.

    作為後續行動,我想我們所有人 - 我們都知道您希望留在聯邦貿易委員會的裁決中。

  • Could you lay out for us what the contingency plans are in the event that a stay is not granted?

    您能否為我們列出在未獲准中止的情況下的應急計劃?

  • What are the steps that would need to be taken and what would be the financial impact of having to take those steps before appeal is finally decided?

    在最終決定上訴之前需要採取哪些步驟以及必須採取這些步驟的財務影響是什麼?

  • Donald J. Rosenberg - Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

    Donald J. Rosenberg - Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

  • This is Don Rosenberg.

    這是唐·羅森博格。

  • So as you know, we are smack in the middle of the Court of Appeals reviewing our motion for a stay.

    如您所知,我們正處於上訴法院審查我們暫緩執行動議的中間階段。

  • So we're limited in what we can say about that.

    所以我們能說的有限。

  • But I should point out, and I don't think it's missed your eyes, that it's fairly widespread consensus that Judge Koh's order is erroneous in many, many respects.

    但我應該指出,我認為您並沒有錯過,Koh 法官的命令在很多很多方面都是錯誤的,這是相當普遍的共識。

  • And the fact that the United States, the Justice Department through the -- with the support of the Department of Defense and Department of Energy, have filed a brief -- statement of interest rather in support of our motion to stay in which, among other things, they objected both to the remedy, but also indicating that they think we're going to be successful on the merits.

    事實上,美國司法部通過——在國防部和能源部的支持下,提交了一份簡短的——利益聲明,而不是支持我們留在其中的動議,除其他外事情,他們反對補救措施,但也表明他們認為我們將在優點上取得成功。

  • In addition, the Court of Appeals has expedited their review of our appeal on the merits.

    此外,上訴法院還加快了對我們上訴案情的審查。

  • And so I think we're very encouraged by this kind of support, we think, as I said, that there is a widespread view that our chances are very good so we're kind of at the point where we want to wait for that decision on the stay and then proceed from there.

    因此,我認為我們對這種支持感到非常鼓舞,我們認為,正如我所說,人們普遍認為我們的機會非常大,所以我們正處於我們想要等待的地步決定停留,然後從那裡繼續。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • This is Alex.

    這是亞歷克斯。

  • So just to add very quickly one of the, I think, fundamental points that can't be missed is that the current agreements are valid and enforceable, even the FTC has waited and said that the agreements are not nullified.

    因此,我想快速補充其中一個不可忽視的基本要點,即當前協議有效且可執行,甚至聯邦貿易委員會 (FTC) 都在等待並表示協議未被廢除。

  • So that's very important.

    所以這非常重要。

  • In addition, we have a couple of, what I would call, anchor agreements that are very good agreements that we're quite happy with, and that's Samsung and the recently signed Apple agreement.

    此外,我們還有一些我稱之為錨定協議的協議,它們是我們非常滿意的非常好的協議,那就是三星和最近簽署的蘋果協議。

  • As I said, our IP position is very, very strong through 4G and ramping into 5G.

    正如我所說,通過 4G 和進入 5G,我們的 IP 地位非常非常強大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Blayne Curtis with Barclays。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could comment on Apple purchased Intel's modem and then as you think longer here, it sounds like Huawei is focusing more on -- post this ban or attempt to ban here, focusing more internal on their modem.

    我想知道你是否可以對蘋果購買英特爾的調製解調器發表評論,然後當你在這裡思考的時間更長時,聽起來華為更關注——發布此禁令或試圖在這裡禁止,更多地關注他們的調製解調器內部。

  • I know you shift to a portion of that, so I'm kind of just curious, any view on how this Apple purchase affects the $2 you guys talked about?

    我知道你們轉向了其中的一部分,所以我有點好奇,關於此次購買 Apple 會如何影響你們談論的 2 美元,有什麼看法嗎?

  • And then if you can just comment on Huawei and if they gain share and do more in-sourcing, these opportunities for you as you go into 5G?

    然後,如果你可以對華為發表評論,如果他們獲得份額並進行更多內包,那麼在你進入 5G 時,這些機會對你來說是什麼?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Blayne, this is Steve.

    布萊恩,這是史蒂夫。

  • I'll handle the first one, and Cristiano, I think, is going to jump in on the Huawei question.

    我會處理第一個問題,我認為 Cristiano 會插手討論華為問題。

  • I would say, in terms of the recent news flow, it's really -- I think that was pretty highly anticipated.

    我會說,就最近的新聞流而言,這真的——我認為這是非常值得期待的。

  • It was clearly anticipated in the agreement that we did.

    我們所做的協議顯然預料到了這一點。

  • Remember, we did 2 agreements, a patent license agreement as well as a product agreement, multiyear product agreement.

    請記住,我們簽訂了 2 份協議,一份專利許可協議以及一份產品協議,多年期產品協議。

  • We don't see anything changing in terms of our ability to deliver on those agreements, and we think it still remains a pretty competitive -- at least an attractive competitive dynamic for us when you look at the industry and our roadmap versus others even after those agreements expire.

    我們沒有看到我們履行這些協議的能力有任何變化,我們認為它仍然具有相當的競爭力 - 至少當您查看行業和我們的路線圖與其他人相比時,至少對我們來說是一個有吸引力的競爭動態,即使在這些協議到期。

  • And I think very clearly, in answer to your question, we don't see any impact to the $2 number that we have put out there.

    而且我非常清楚地認為,在回答您的問題時,我們沒有看到我們在那裡提出的 2 美元數字有任何影響。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • This is Cristiano.

    這是克里斯蒂亞諾。

  • So on the Huawei, Huawei has been now a number of years that their premium and high tier has been focused on their own silicon.

    所以在華為方面,華為多年來一直專注於自己的芯片。

  • I think our shipments to Huawei sort of always like in the mid-to-low tier, but I look at the Huawei focus on China a little different.

    我認為我們對華為的出貨量總是處於中低端,但我認為華為對中國的關注有點不同。

  • I think it creates an opportunity for our customer base coming out of China, companies like Vivo, OPPO, OnePlus and Xiaomi, outside China especially in Europe that's accretive to us, especially in the 5G transition.

    我認為這為我們來自中國的客戶群創造了機會,像 Vivo、OPPO、OnePlus 和小米這樣的公司,在中國以外,尤其是在歐洲,這對我們來說是增值的,尤其是在 5G 轉型中。

  • And we look that opportunity is probably permanent, not onetime.

    我們認為機會可能是永久性的,而不是一次性的。

  • I think the interest on the European carriers have been very high.

    我認為歐洲航空公司的興趣非常高。

  • And when some data came out, they're totally very pleased that show since they were kind of generations ahead on our 5G chip, I think the latest report show that the Huawei modem is at least 50% bigger in area than the first-generation QCT.

    當一些數據出來時,他們非常高興,因為他們在我們的 5G 芯片上領先了幾代人,我認為最新的報告顯示華為調製解調器的面積至少比第一代大 50% QCT。

  • And I think we had compete with many other companies throughout the years and we're optimistic about the lead we have in 5G and hopefully, that will drive a good transition for us with our customers in China, including competing with Huawei in domestic China as well.

    而且我認為多年來我們與許多其他公司競爭,我們對我們在 5G 方面的領先地位持樂觀態度,希望這將推動我們與中國客戶的良好過渡,包括在中國國內與華為競爭出色地。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • I just wanted to start off with kind of question on 5G.

    我只想從有關 5G 的問題開始。

  • You're clearly excited about your position in 5G but as you kind of think about the impact on the smartphone industry, you're expecting volumes to improve but lowering the cost of the solution also is probably a -- going to be a big driver.

    您顯然對自己在 5G 中的地位感到興奮,但當您考慮對智能手機行業的影響時,您預計數量會增加,但降低解決方案的成本也可能是一個很大的推動力.

  • So how are you seeing kind of the progress on that front?

    那麼,您如何看待這方面的進展?

  • And just as a follow-up, I think you mentioned kind of 20 operators, you expect to launch 5G.

    作為後續行動,我想你提到了 20 家運營商,你希望推出 5G。

  • Can you just help us think about the mix of sub-6 versus millimeter-wave?

    您能幫我們想想 sub-6 與毫米波的混合嗎?

  • And you mentioned, you would expect millimeter-wave to be mandatory, kind of what's driving your view there given what we hear is the infrastructure is not really ready to support millimeter-wave in most geographies yet?

    你提到過,你會認為毫米波是強制性的,考慮到我們聽到的是大多數地區的基礎設施還沒有真正準備好支持毫米波,是什麼推動了你的觀點?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • This is Steve.

    這是史蒂夫。

  • Maybe I'll take the first one and Cristiano will jump in a bit on the RF components.

    也許我會選擇第一個,而 Cristiano 會跳入 RF 組件。

  • I would say, look at the 5G rollout, in general, has a higher intensity and a more global nature than what we saw even in 4G.

    我想說,看看 5G 的推出,總的來說,它比我們在 4G 中看到的具有更高的強度和更俱全球性。

  • So the pressure that we are getting to accelerate not only the premium tier but also higher-tier devices is pretty amazing.

    因此,我們不僅要加速高端設備,還要加速更高級設備的壓力是非常驚人的。

  • If you were to look China Mobile came out with a data point that said, essentially RMB 2,000 devices, roughly $300 phone, that will be where they're going to target the 5G line next year, pretty substantial by the end of the year that is pretty substantial move.

    如果你看中國移動給出的數據點,基本上是 2,000 元人民幣的設備,大約 300 美元的手機,這將是他們明年瞄準 5G 線路的地方,到今年年底相當可觀是相當大的舉措。

  • I would expect at the beginning of the year which is what we're really focused on right now, you'll start to see that line be somewhere close to the RMB 3,000, so roughly $400, $430 price point.

    我預計在今年年初,我們現在真正關注的是,你會開始看到這條線接近 3,000 元人民幣,大約 400 美元,430 美元的價格點。

  • That's pretty significant, actually.

    實際上,這非常重要。

  • And it's anticipated in our roadmap in terms of our integration.

    就我們的整合而言,我們的路線圖中預計會出現這種情況。

  • You may have seen us and remember that we have talked about how we have been moving for our 5G into an integrated roadmap even more quickly than we did in 4G.

    您可能已經見過我們並記得我們已經討論過我們如何以比 4G 更快的速度將 5G 轉變為綜合路線圖。

  • Now 2 things happened to us that I think are beneficial in addition to just the good dynamics that happen when you have transitions in technology.

    現在發生在我們身上的兩件事我認為是有益的,除了在技術轉型時發生的良好動力之外。

  • One is because the complexity of 5G goes up, the ASP of the baseband, we tend to have an attractive move just from the ASP of the baseband alone, tier-to-tier.

    一個是因為 5G 的複雜性上升,基帶的 ASP,我們往往僅從基帶的 ASP 開始,層層相加。

  • So 4G same tier to 5G same tier.

    所以 4G 同層到 5G 同層。

  • The ASP of the baseband is good for us.

    基帶的 ASP 對我們有好處。

  • Secondly, we see a strong opportunity in the RF to grow the content of the device.

    其次,我們在 RF 中看到了增加設備內容的強大機會。

  • As you know, we've had strong traction there in part because of the importance of wrapping the system design around the antenna.

    如您所知,我們在這方面有很強的吸引力,部分原因是將系統設計包裹在天線周圍的重要性。

  • You will see consistent with the design that I mentioned or the feature that I mentioned, dynamic spectrum sharing, you will see an opportunity to extend those 5G RF design opportunities into the legacy 4G bands as they are effectively dynamically refarmed with that feature.

    您將看到與我提到的設計或我提到的動態頻譜共享功能一致,您將看到將這些 5G RF 設計機會擴展到傳統 4G 頻段的機會,因為它們已通過該功能有效地動態重新分配。

  • So we see a continued roadmap for us to continue -- to grow content per device, and that's why we've been investing so heavily to put that in place.

    所以我們看到了一個持續的路線圖讓我們繼續——增加每台設備的內容,這就是為什麼我們一直在大力投資以實現這一目標。

  • It's in place now and the real activity for us is how quickly can we get this to ramp and can we do it worldwide.

    它現在已經到位,對我們來說真正的活動是我們能多快地讓這個斜坡上升,我們能在全球範圍內做到這一點。

  • So we're pleased with that, I would say, the dynamics.

    所以我們很高興,我想說,動態。

  • And we have a lot of visibility into that.

    我們對此有很多了解。

  • We have a lot of confidence that we'll be able to do it.

    我們非常有信心我們能夠做到。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • It's Cristiano, just to answer your question about sub-6 and millimeter-wave mix.

    我是克里斯蒂亞諾,只是為了回答你關於 sub-6 和毫米波混音的問題。

  • So millimeter-wave, right now, is a requirement across all the main carriers in United States.

    所以毫米波,現在,是美國所有主要運營商的要求。

  • I think we saw phones again launch with millimeter-wave.

    我想我們又看到了帶有毫米波的手機。

  • And in 2020, we'll see that in Korea and Japan.

    2020 年,我們將在韓國和日本看到這一點。

  • So if you look at developed economies, I think the Japan market, Korea market, United States market require millimeter-wave.

    所以如果你看發達經濟體,我認為日本市場、韓國市場、美國市場需要毫米波。

  • There will be no high attach in terms of the total 5G volumes.

    就 5G 總容量而言,不會有高附加值。

  • But it's not stopping there.

    但它並不止於此。

  • So Europe, that is launching with sub-6, millimeter-wave has been already auctioned in Italy.

    因此,正在發射 sub-6 毫米波的歐洲已經在意大利進行了拍賣。

  • And it is now likely to get licensed in the U.K. as well.

    現在它也有可能在英國獲得許可。

  • So 5G's really been designed for the combination of sub-6 and millimeter-wave.

    所以 5G 確實是為 sub-6 和毫米波的結合而設計的。

  • And we are optimistic about millimeter-wave attach increasing.

    我們對毫米波連接的增長持樂觀態度。

  • One other thing to mention is sub-6, in general, we will see in '20 a lot of refarming of existing spectrum because of the dynamic spectrum sharing technology.

    另一件要提到的事情是 sub-6,一般來說,由於動態頻譜共享技術,我們將在 20 世紀看到大量現有頻譜的重新分配。

  • So that also creates opportunity for us to expand our RF front-end that today is focused on 5G.

    因此,這也為我們擴展今天專注於 5G 的 RF 前端創造了機會。

  • These new sub-6 band and millimeter-wave to also add the reform bands, so that's how we think about the RF.

    這些新的 sub-6 頻段和毫米波也添加了改革頻段,這就是我們對 RF 的看法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tal Liani。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • When you say that there is slowdown in 4G versus 5G, is it only China-specific?

    當您說 4G 相對於 5G 出現放緩時,是否僅針對中國?

  • Or can you give the global context of this comment?

    或者你能給出這個評論的全球背景嗎?

  • It's just hard for me to believe that there is any slowdown in Europe or the U.S. because of 5G.

    我很難相信歐洲或美國會因為 5G 而放緩。

  • So I want to understand it.

    所以我想了解一下。

  • Second, can you comment on relationship with Apple post the acquisition of Intel's modem business by Apple?

    第二,您能否評論一下蘋果收購英特爾調製解調器業務後與蘋果的關係?

  • How do you view it?

    你怎麼看?

  • And what's -- where do you see yourself kind of in the future playing with Apple, kind of how do you work with Apple, given that they're going to have a modem asset in-house?

    什麼是 - 你認為自己在未來與 Apple 打交道的地方是什麼,你如何與 Apple 合作,因為他們將擁有內部調製解調器資產?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • This is Dave.

    這是戴夫。

  • I'll start.

    我會開始。

  • So let me start with China.

    所以讓我從中國開始。

  • So we are seeing a pause or a slowing in terms of the 4G orders in advance of 5G in China.

    因此,我們看到中國在 5G 之前的 4G 訂單暫停或放緩。

  • Really, there's a number of -- as we referenced, a number of dynamics going on in China right now.

    真的,正如我們所提到的,中國目前正在發生一些動態。

  • There is sort of a realignment of the sell-in towards the lower sell-through growth rate so some compression on growth rates in the back half of the year, the channel inventories being drawn down.

    銷售量向較低的銷售增長率進行了某種調整,因此今年下半年的增長率會有所壓縮,渠道庫存會減少。

  • And so headwinds for the OEMs in terms of the market in China in the back half of the year.

    因此,就今年下半年的中國市場而言,原始設備製造商面臨逆風。

  • And then what we're seeing is an element of the softness in the sell-through market really being attributable to more high and premium tier segments of the market pausing before 5G.

    然後我們看到的是銷售市場疲軟的一個因素,這實際上歸因於 5G 之前暫停的更多高端市場細分市場。

  • So we are seeing that some of that pause before 5G and a desire by some of our OEMs to try to accelerate efforts to bring 5G into the market.

    因此,我們看到在 5G 之前出現了一些停頓,並且我們的一些原始設備製造商希望加快努力將 5G 推向市場。

  • So seeing that there.

    所以在那裡看到了。

  • Outside of China, we referenced lengthening replacement rates in developed markets like the U.S. and Europe.

    在中國以外,我們參考了美國和歐洲等發達市場延長的替代率。

  • And so we think a little bit at play there as well in terms of some pause again at sort of the higher tiers in advance of 5G.

    因此,我們認為在 5G 之前的更高層級再次暫停方面也有一些影響。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • It's Steve.

    是史蒂夫。

  • With respect to Apple, I think the relationship is quite good.

    關於蘋果,我認為關係很好。

  • What really characterizes it now is the -- 100% of the intensity is about how do we get products out together.

    現在它真正的特點是 - 100% 的強度是關於我們如何將產品放在一起。

  • Very natural, I think, for both companies.

    我認為這對兩家公司來說都是很自然的。

  • We, and I think both sides, really anticipated that there would be some announcement like you've seen.

    我們,我認為雙方,真的很期待會有像你看到的那樣的公告。

  • But it hasn't changed the way in which we move forward.

    但它並沒有改變我們前進的方式。

  • We're used to that and the real effort is how do we get products out together, and I think that's a very healthy relationship.

    我們已經習慣了,真正的努力是我們如何一起推出產品,我認為這是一種非常健康的關係。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • I want to talk about the 5G side.

    我想談談5G方面。

  • You're clearly excited about the first half of next calendar year.

    您顯然對下個日曆年的上半年感到興奮。

  • Can you talk a little bit through, do you think it's going to be more of a unit demand environment, where that's really going to rise?

    你能稍微談談嗎,你認為它會更像是一個單位需求環境,它真的會上升嗎?

  • Or is it going to be more of a substitution effect there?

    還是那裡會有更多的替代效應?

  • And people on the sell side and buy side should more focus on that 1.5x increase in content that you talked about, Steve?

    賣方和買方的人應該更多地關注你所說的 1.5 倍的內容增長,史蒂夫?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes, Ross.

    是的,羅斯。

  • I think as we look out over the next year and the transition to 5G, we don't really look at it in terms of being a unit growth story, where the market units increase.

    我認為,當我們展望明年和向 5G 的過渡時,我們並沒有真正從單位增長的角度來看待它,即市場單位增加。

  • What we really see is in a flat market, the transition over to 5G creating an opportunity for us by the fact that our monetization per phone is going up as Steve referenced.

    我們真正看到的是在一個平坦的市場中,向 5G 的過渡為我們創造了機會,因為我們每部手機的貨幣化正在上升,正如史蒂夫所提到的那樣。

  • We see higher ASPs associated with the complexity as well as of the capture of the 5G RF front-end content.

    我們看到更高的 ASP 與復雜性以及 5G RF 前端內容的捕獲相關。

  • So it's really more about that as a growth driver for us as we head into the first calendar quarter next year and on into the rest of fiscal '20.

    因此,隨著我們進入明年的第一個日曆季度以及 20 財年的剩餘時間,這實際上更多地是作為我們的增長動力。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Ross, this is Cristiano.

    羅斯,這是克里斯蒂亞諾。

  • I'd like to add the following.

    我想補充以下內容。

  • When you look at the first half, just the launch of the 5G by the operators and how unlimited data plan starts to move to the 5G devices, we'll see that replacement and with that, you do see this 1.5 factor coming in as we grow content and RF front end.

    當你看上半年時,運營商推出 5G 以及無限數據計劃如何開始轉移到 5G 設備,我們將看到這種替代,你確實看到了這個 1.5 因素的出現,因為我們增加內容和 RF 前端。

  • Over time, it's hard to make predictions, but we've seen this with every different transition.

    隨著時間的推移,很難做出預測,但我們在每一次不同的轉變中都看到了這一點。

  • Some of the new services, whether a video or gaming or streaming gaming starts to become more popular and device form factor changes for a larger screen, you could see the market growing faster than single digit, but we're not making that assumption for 2020.

    一些新服務,無論是視頻、遊戲還是流媒體遊戲開始變得更受歡迎,設備外形因屏幕變大而發生變化,你可以看到市場增長速度超過個位數,但我們並沒有對 2020 年做出這樣的假設.

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • I guess as my follow-up question sticking with the China theme, in general, can you give us an idea whether it's your QCT revenues or the MSMs, any sort of even rough estimate about the percentage of those that are associated with China because the year-over-year growth rates you're talking about or declines in this instance are quite acute.

    我想作為我堅持中國主題的後續問題,總的來說,你能告訴我們是你的 QCT 收入還是 MSM,任何粗略估計與中國相關的百分比,因為你所說的同比增長率或在這種情況下的下降非常嚴重。

  • I know in the September quarter, you had 14 weeks last year and some things have changed and you walked through the inventory dynamics.

    我知道在 9 月季度,你去年有 14 週,有些事情發生了變化,你瀏覽了庫存動態。

  • But even if I adjust for those, it seems like you're down a better part of 15%, 20% year-over-year.

    但即使我對這些進行了調整,你似乎也比去年同期下降了 15%、20%。

  • So to the extent China is such a larger exposure for you, can you just talk about how big is it?

    那麼中國對你來說是一個更大的曝光度,你能談談它有多大嗎?

  • And is there anything that you can do to help mitigate these sorts of booms and busts as we go into that first half of 2020, when the count -- the 5G ramp could lead to the same sort of volatility?

    在我們進入 2020 年上半年時,您可以做些什麼來幫助緩解這些繁榮和蕭條,屆時 5G 的增長可能會導致同樣的波動?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • A quick comment on year-over-year.

    對同比的快速評論。

  • So if you look at where we are year-over-year, there's a couple of things -- couple of factors that affect the decrease or the reduced level of revenues.

    因此,如果你看看我們與去年同期相比的情況,有幾件事 - 影響收入減少或減少水平的幾個因素。

  • One, I would remind you that last year, there was significantly more Apple in our business versus the current quarters.

    第一,我想提醒你,去年我們業務中的蘋果公司比當前季度要多得多。

  • So that's a meaningful portion of the decrease in revenues on a year-over-year basis.

    因此,這是收入同比下降的重要部分。

  • We also had some low-end share loss over the last year that had some contribution to the reduction as well but Apple, a big part of it in terms of QCT.

    去年我們也有一些低端份額損失,這對減少也有一定貢獻,但蘋果公司在 QCT 方面佔很大一部分。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • On the QTL side, just to highlight it, in the year ago quarter, we had $500 million from Huawei compared to $150 million in the current quarter.

    在 QTL 方面,為了強調這一點,在去年同期,我們從華為獲得了 5 億美元,而本季度為 1.5 億美元。

  • So overall, that contributes to the comparison also.

    總的來說,這也有助於比較。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • And I will just add one -- this is Steve.

    我只想添加一個——這是史蒂夫。

  • I'll just add one thing.

    我只補充一件事。

  • I think you have an unusual event here, which was the reaction of Huawei to the ban and how it retrenched into China.

    我認為這裡有一個不尋常的事件,那就是華為對禁令的反應以及它如何縮減到中國市場。

  • And I think that was a very unusual share shift that obviously, we got impacted, probably more than other folks just because the tiers and the OEMs that were impacted are ones that we tend to monetize.

    而且我認為這是一個非常不尋常的份額轉變,很明顯,我們受到了影響,可能比其他人更多,因為受到影響的層級和 OEM 是我們傾向於貨幣化的層級和 OEM。

  • We think that gets back in a more normal position, kind of snaps back the other way with the launch of 5G, and hopefully, wouldn't have a onetime event like that but it should be more stable post that big ramp with 5G.

    我們認為這會回到一個更正常的位置,隨著 5G 的推出而以另一種方式快速恢復,希望不會有這樣的一次性事件,但在 5G 的大增長之後它應該會更加穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen 的對話。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - Former MD

    Matthew D. Ramsay - Former MD

  • A couple of additional questions on China.

    關於中國的幾個額外問題。

  • One from each side of the business.

    來自業務的每一方。

  • I don't know Steve or Cristiano, I know you've talked a little bit about the Huawei retrenchment and the impact on QCT units.

    我不認識史蒂夫或克里斯蒂亞諾,我知道你已經談到了華為裁員以及對 QCT 部門的影響。

  • It's been topical that obviously, China after the Huawei entity list stuff and other factors has maybe focused more as a country on indigenous development, have there been any movements for high silicon to supply any other OEMs in China or for OEMs broadly to source from China?

    很明顯,在華為實體清單和其他因素之後,中國可能更關注本土發展,這一直是熱門話題,是否有任何高矽供應中國其他 OEM 或 OEM 廣泛從中國採購的動向?

  • And then on the QTL side, since Judge Koh's ruling, any change in compliance with Chinese OEMs outside of Huawei that we should note?

    然後在 QTL 方面,自從 Koh 法官的裁決以來,我們應該注意華為以外的中國 OEM 合規方面的任何變化?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的問題。

  • Look, I think the way to think about it, Huawei had a sudden change in their phone landscape, especially what happened in Europe.

    看,我想這樣想,華為的手機格局突然發生了變化,尤其是在歐洲發生的事情。

  • I think there was a drastic reduction in demand.

    我認為需求急劇減少。

  • And I think that causes them to be very focused on China because that's the place they could be focused on.

    我認為這導致他們非常關注中國,因為那是他們可以關注的地方。

  • I think the big picture answer to your question is China has many initiatives, and their initiative in China is not only about China domestic market but also the Chinese mobile ecosystem grow outside China.

    我認為你的問題的總體答案是中國有很多舉措,他們在中國的舉措不僅涉及中國國內市場,還涉及中國移動生態系統在中國以外的發展。

  • And what we have seen, it's -- our relationship with China remains very healthy and is expanding.

    我們所看到的是——我們與中國的關係仍然非常健康並且正在擴大。

  • In addition to the relationship with Vivo, OPPO and OnePlus as they range in Europe, we recently signed an agreement with Tencent talking about content in 5G use-case development.

    除了在歐洲與 Vivo、OPPO 和 OnePlus 的關係之外,我們最近還與騰訊簽署了一項協議,討論 5G 用例開發中的內容。

  • And I expect that the relationship between QCT and China in the 5G era will continue to be healthy because we help the expansion outside China.

    我希望 QCT 與中國在 5G 時代的關係將繼續保持健康,因為我們幫助中國以外的擴張。

  • And that's how we look at.

    這就是我們的看法。

  • We don't see any signs today that the dynamic is changing.

    我們今天沒有看到任何跡象表明動態正在發生變化。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP

  • And then this is Alex.

    然後這是亞歷克斯。

  • On the QTL side, there was, as we referenced, one incident that would've affected the compliance and we engaged very rapidly on that, take it -- took it very seriously.

    在 QTL 方面,正如我們所提到的,有一個事件會影響合規性,我們非常迅速地參與其中,非常認真地對待它。

  • But as you can see, as of the end of the reporting here, we've got good compliance.

    但正如您所看到的,截至此處報告結束時,我們的合規性很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon 與 Bernstein Research 的合作。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the QCT trajectory.

    我想問一下QCT軌跡。

  • So I know you talked about inventory flush and some of the weakness and everything else.

    所以我知道你談到了庫存沖洗和一些弱點以及其他一切。

  • But at the same time, if I look at your forward guidance on chipsets, I mean you've been missing for the last several quarters.

    但與此同時,如果我看一下你對芯片組的前瞻性指導,我的意思是你在過去幾個季度一直在失踪。

  • So why all of a sudden is it inventories in a pause in front of 5G versus just a continuation of the trend that we've already been seeing for the last 3 or 4 quarters?

    那麼,為什麼突然間庫存在 5G 面前暫停,而不是我們在過去 3 或 4 個季度已經看到的趨勢的延續?

  • And for my follow-up, I just want to know, do you guys think 5G overall is accretive to licensing revenues?

    對於我的後續行動,我只想知道,你們認為 5G 總體上會增加許可收入嗎?

  • I mean you lowered the rate when you included it, you have the ASPs capped, it doesn't sound like you're looking for incremental unit growth for the market for 5G.

    我的意思是你在包含它時降低了費率,你有 ASPs 上限,這聽起來不像你在為 5G 市場尋找增量單位增長。

  • So how do we think about 5G's impact on the run rate of royalty revenues given where it is today?

    那麼,鑑於目前的情況,我們如何看待 5G 對特許權使用費收入運行率的影響?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So with respect to the QCT side, first of all, I would make the comment that stepping back over the course of this year, I think with the recent 100 million unit reduction, we've seen a sort of a continuing erosion in the handset market over the course of this year.

    因此,關於 QCT 方面,首先,我想回顧一下今年的過程,我認為隨著最近 1 億部的減少,我們已經看到手機的某種持續侵蝕今年以來的市場。

  • So this has been something that has been a headwind for the business, I think, for the last several quarters.

    因此,我認為,在過去的幾個季度裡,這一直是企業的逆風。

  • And so I think that's been a dynamic that has been impacting MSM units as well as sort of the overall business.

    因此,我認為這是一種影響 MSM 部門以及整體業務的動態。

  • I think what we saw this -- what we're seeing now is maybe a little more pronounced growth impacts on the back half of the year as again we go back to the sort of sell-through rates remaining down in China and the sell-through -- sell-in rates really not yet aligned with that.

    我認為我們所看到的 - 我們現在看到的可能是今年下半年的增長影響更加明顯,因為我們再次回到中國的銷售率和銷售率 -通過 - 銷售率確實尚未與此一致。

  • So realignment there, the fact that they weren't aligned in the first half, resulting in some channel inventory build.

    所以在那裡重新調整,事實上他們在上半年沒有對齊,導致一些渠道庫存增加。

  • So really more market dynamics in terms of pressure on units.

    因此,就單位壓力而言,市場動態確實更多。

  • As we said, a little bit of share loss at the low end, not financially significant.

    正如我們所說,低端的一些份額損失,在財務上並不重要。

  • And then the more, I would say, unique situation was Huawei really entrenching and focusing on the domestic China market and really putting their attention there and grabbing significant share.

    然後,我想說,獨特的情況是華為真正鞏固並專注於中國國內市場,真正把注意力放在那裡並佔據了很大的份額。

  • So that's a little bit more of a unique situation to what we're seeing right now.

    因此,與我們現在所看到的情況相比,這更像是一種獨特的情況。

  • But I would say a lot of it really is attributable to the market headwinds that we've been, frankly, seeing all year long.

    但我要說的是,其中很多確實是由於市場逆風,坦率地說,我們一整年都看到了這一點。

  • And then QTL, with respect to how to think about that as a 5G as an upside, a lot of the agreements we signed are for 4G -- 3G, 4G, 5G.

    然後是 QTL,關於如何將其視為 5G 的優勢,我們簽署的許多協議都是針對 4G 的——3G、4G、5G。

  • And so really, we look at it as just a continuation and extending of the monetization of the handset market as it evolves from 4G to 5G, just like we did from 3G to 4G.

    因此,實際上,我們將其視為手機市場貨幣化的延續和延伸,因為它從 4G 發展到 5G,就像我們從 3G 到 4G 所做的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mitch Steves。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • Just a quick one, just kind of turning back to the ASP as expected if we're going to ramp 5G faster.

    只是一個快速的,如果我們要更快地提升 5G,就像預期的那樣回到 ASP。

  • So I guess 2 parts.

    所以我猜是2個部分。

  • So first, does this mean that essentially we're going to see kind of a bigger pause in smartphones shipments and then that's going to increase demand for the kind of 5G shipments out in '20?

    那麼首先,這是否意味著從本質上講我們將看到智能手機出貨量出現更大的停頓,然後這將增加對 20 世紀 5G 出貨量的需求?

  • And then secondly, if that's not the case, what should we think about as a kind of a normalized unit base for the smartphone industry at this point?

    其次,如果不是這種情況,我們現在應該將什麼視為智能手機行業的一種標準化單位基礎?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So in our comments, when we talked about the 100 million unit reduction, we kind of gave a sense, it's 1.7 billion and 1.8 billion units in total.

    所以在我們的評論中,當我們談到減少 1 億個單位時,我們有點感覺,總共是 17 億和 18 億個單位。

  • We indicated that now translates into a handset market being down sort of mid-single digits year-over-year.

    我們表示,現在轉化為手機市場同比下降中等個位數。

  • And so if you look -- if you step back over the last number of years, it's been relatively flat handset market so down a little bit as we see some of this pause and some of the macro environment impacts affecting us.

    因此,如果你看 - 如果你在過去幾年中退後一步,它一直相對平穩,因為我們看到一些停頓和一些影響我們的宏觀環境影響,所以手機市場有所下降。

  • So we don't really see any sort of changes in the overall unit market beyond the comments that we made.

    因此,除了我們所做的評論之外,我們真的沒有看到整個單位市場的任何變化。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just sort of to clarify real quick, I don't think I did a good job asking that question.

    只是為了快速澄清一下,我認為我問這個問題做得不好。

  • I was referring more to 2020 so essentially, if people are pulling down the numbers for this year, does that mean essentially '20 should be up like 7% or 8% to kind of offset those being more of a down year or is that too early to call that?

    我更多地指的是 2020 年,所以從本質上講,如果人們降低今年的數字,這是否意味著基本上 20 年應該上升 7% 或 8% 以抵消那些下降的年份,或者也是這樣這麼早打電話?

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Yes, probably too early for us to call what we'll see in '20.

    是的,對於我們來說我們將在 20 年看到什麼可能還為時過早。

  • But I think we would expect to, as we said, see an inflection beginning in the first calendar.

    但我認為,正如我們所說,我們希望看到第一個日曆開始出現拐點。

  • So it will be our second fiscal quarter with 5G launches happening more significantly in China as well as other flagship device launches at Mobile World Congress and place -- things like that and then sort of a building over the course of the year as we think about moving towards really more flagship launches happening in the fourth fiscal quarter.

    因此,這將是我們的第二個財政季度,5G 在中國的發布以及其他旗艦設備在世界移動通信大會和地點的發布——諸如此類,然後在我們考慮的這一年中進行建設朝著第四財季真正推出更多旗艦產品的方向邁進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Rod Hall 與高盛的合作。

  • Roderick B. Hall - MD

    Roderick B. Hall - MD

  • Just a couple of things.

    只是幾件事。

  • I wanted to ask kind of deviate from all the demand stuff and just ask you if you could update us on the CFO search, kind of what the status of that is?

    我想問的是偏離所有需求的東西,只是問你是否可以在 CFO 搜索上更新我們,那是什麼狀態?

  • And then I also want to come back to just the demand stuff, just to kind of clarify what your -- what information you're acting on?

    然後我還想回到需求方面,只是為了澄清你的 - 你正在採取行動的信息是什麼?

  • So are you seeing -- did you see deterioration of demand through the quarter?

    那麼您是否看到 - 您是否看到整個季度的需求惡化?

  • Could you just kind of talk to us about what sort of data points you've seen here and how they came to you?

    你能不能跟我們談談你在這裡看到了什麼樣的數據點以及它們是如何找到你的?

  • Did it -- did things weaken toward the end of the quarter?

    它 - 事情在本季度末減弱了嗎?

  • Or they just remained weak or kind of give us some idea what trajectory look like to you?

    或者他們只是保持虛弱或者有點讓我們知道你的軌跡是什麼樣的?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Rod, it's Steve.

    羅德,是史蒂夫。

  • We continue to look, nothing to announce right now, but we'll keep you updated.

    我們繼續尋找,現在沒有什麼可宣布的,但我們會及時通知您。

  • David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

    David E. Wise - Senior VP & Treasurer

  • Then with respect to sort of how things have unfolded, I guess, more recently.

    然後關於事情是如何展開的,我想,最近。

  • So one, I think we tracked like the Sino-MR Report.

    所以,我認為我們像 Sino-MR 報告一樣進行了跟踪。

  • I mean we track that, like probably a lot of others in terms of watching what's happening with the sell-through.

    我的意思是我們會跟踪這一點,就像很多其他人一樣,關註銷售情況。

  • And so we've seen that continue to be down even through the June quarter with really no significant movement away from that trend.

    因此,我們已經看到,即使在整個 6 月季度,這一數字仍在繼續下降,而且實際上並沒有明顯偏離這一趨勢。

  • And then we'll look at that relative to kind of where we see handset demand coming in with respect to sort of our own data points around the market.

    然後,我們將根據我們自己在市場上的數據點,相對於我們看到的手機需求的類型來看待這一點。

  • And so we look at it from that standpoint.

    所以我們從這個角度來看。

  • We look at our demand profiles coming in from customers in QCT and factor that into the mix as well.

    我們查看來自 QCT 客戶的需求概況,並將其納入組合。

  • And that's why we've seen some of the pullback that we talked about with respect to 4G units.

    這就是為什麼我們看到了我們談到的關於 4G 單元的一些回調。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • This is Cristiano.

    這是克里斯蒂亞諾。

  • Like we, I think I've mentioned this before.

    像我們一樣,我想我之前已經提到過這一點。

  • We saw some phone model cancellations, which is on the 4G second half launch.

    我們看到一些手機型號取消,這是在 4G 下半年推出。

  • So that's an indication they wanted to accelerate the 5G and that's an unusual metric, having the phone model cancellation on the 4G side.

    所以這表明他們想要加速 5G,這是一個不尋常的指標,在 4G 端取消了手機型號。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question-and-answer session.

    女士們,先生們,今天的問答環節到此結束。

  • Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

    Mollenkopf 先生,在暫停通話之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • I just thank everyone for joining us today.

    我只是感謝大家今天加入我們。

  • And maybe just to the employees of Qualcomm, thank you for the good quarter.

    也許只是對高通公司的員工,感謝你們的好季度。

  • We have a lot of work ahead to launch 5G.

    要推出 5G,我們還有很多工作要做。

  • It's a big opportunity for the company and look forward to the next several quarters.

    這對公司來說是一個巨大的機會,並期待接下來的幾個季度。

  • And a lot of work to do, but I think a great opportunity for us.

    還有很多工作要做,但我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。