高通 (QCOM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded February 3, 2021. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13714808.

    女士們、先生們,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加高通公司2021財年第一季及全年業績電話會議。 (操作說明)提醒您,本次會議將於2021年2月3日進行錄音。本次電話會議的回放號碼為(877) 660-6853。國際用戶請撥打(201) 612-7415。回放預約號碼為13714808。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁毛里西奧·洛佩茲-霍多揚先生。洛佩茲-霍多揚先生,請您發言。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steven Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompanies this call on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝大家,下午好。今天的電話會議將包括 Steven Mollenkopf 和 A​​lash Palkhiwala 的演講。此外,Cristiano Amon、Alex Rogers 和 Don Rosenberg 將參與問答環節。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查看收益報告和本次電話會議的簡報。

  • In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today. During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results.

    此外,本次電話會議將在 qualcomm.com 上進行網路直播,稍後將在我們的網站上提供重播。在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用符合 G 條例定義的非公認會計準則 (非 GAAP) 財務指標,您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 的相關調整表。我們還將做出前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務表現的預測和估計。

  • Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

    實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性聲明中預測的內容有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們最新的10-K表格,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明有重大差異的重要因素。

  • And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steven Mollenkopf.

    現在請高通執行長史蒂文·莫倫科夫發表演說。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2021 is off to a great start with record first quarter non-GAAP revenues of $8.2 billion, up 63% year-over-year and record non-GAAP earnings of $2.17 per share, more than doubling from the prior year. The simultaneous global adoption of 5G, combined with increasingly complex technical requirements and a pace of change that is accelerating drives a significant multiyear industry transition that plays to our strength.

    謝謝毛里西奧,大家午安。 2021財年開局良好,第一季非GAAP營收創下82億美元的歷史新高,年增63%;非GAAP每股收益也創下2.17美元的歷史新高,較上年同期增長超過一倍。 5G在全球範圍內的同步普及,加上日益複雜的技術要求以及不斷加速的變革步伐,正在推動一場意義深遠的多年行業轉型,而這正是我們的優勢所在。

  • QCT revenues of $6.5 billion were also a record, up 81% year-over-year and 32% sequentially. Notably, our strong performance and outlook would have been even stronger had we not been supply constrained. Within QCT, we saw strength across our portfolio.

    QCT營收達65億美元,創歷史新高,年增81%,季增32%。值得注意的是,若非受到供應限制,我們的強勁業績和前景本應更加亮眼。 QCT旗下所有產品組合均表現強勁。

  • Our RF adjacency demonstrated continued growth with quarterly revenues more than doubling year-over-year and crossing the $1 billion threshold, a significant milestone. We are executing extremely well on our strategy to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a true modem to antenna 5G experience and capture a higher dollar share of content in smartphones.

    我們的射頻鄰近業務持續成長,季度營收年增超過一倍,並突破10億美元大關,這是一個重要的里程碑。我們在應對實現真正從數據機到天線的5G體驗所面臨的許多技術挑戰方面,以及在智慧型手機內容市場中佔據更高份額方面,都取得了卓越的戰略成效。

  • We are also well positioned with design wins across the mobile handset ecosystem, a strong pipeline for further growth in smartphones and a road map to bring our RF expertise to adjacent industries.

    我們在行動手機生態系統中也擁有良好的設計優勢,智慧型手機領域擁有強勁的成長潛力,並且制定了將我們的射頻專業知識引入相鄰行業的路線圖。

  • Our automotive revenues of $212 million were up 44% year-over-year, and our design win pipeline has grown to $8.3 billion from just $3 billion 3 years ago, placing us on a trajectory to achieve our fiscal year 2024 revenue target of $1.5 billion.

    我們的汽車業務收入為 2.12 億美元,年增 44%;我們的設計得標項目儲備已從 3 年前的 30 億美元成長到 83 億美元,使我們有望實現 2024 財年 15 億美元的收入目標。

  • Our IoT adjacency also passed the $1 billion threshold in Q1 and grew 48% year-over-year, driven by the growth of our core technologies for the digitization of consumer, networking and industrial applications. Our team continues to execute extremely well in spite of supply constraints and the continued impact of the pandemic. Our strategy is playing out largely as we expected, positioning us well to capture the rapid deployment of 5G in both the core handset industry as well as creating new opportunities in adjacencies.

    第一季度,我們的物聯網相關業務規模也突破了10億美元大關,年增48%,這主要得益於我們面向消費者、網路和工業應用數位轉型的核心技術的成長。儘管面臨供應鏈限制和疫情持續影響,我們的團隊仍保持著卓越的執行力。我們的策略基本上符合預期,使我們能夠更好地掌握5G在核心手機產業的快速部署,並在相關領域創造新的機會。

  • In our licensing business, our broad portfolio of foundational system-level innovations and intellectual properties across 3G, 4G and 5G, along with valuable implementation patents is unmatched and recognized in part by having signed more than 120 5G license agreements, up from 111 license agreements last quarter. Our continued success in-licensing reflects our development of foundational technologies enabling 5G standards coupled with leadership in developing the standards themselves.

    在我們的授權業務中,我們擁有涵蓋3G、4G和5G的基礎系統級創新和智慧財產權的廣泛組合,以及極具價值的實施專利,這在業界首屈一指。我們已簽署超過120份5G授權協議,高於上季的111份,這在一定程度上證明了我們的優勢。我們在授權業務方面的持續成功,體現了我們在開發支援5G標準的基礎技術以及在標準制定方面的領先地位。

  • Leadership in developing the products necessary to implement 5G technology and leadership in enabling the industry to rapidly implement 5G seamlessly worldwide. This process continues through the successive releases of 5G currently under development as our foundational innovations, coupled with our ability to implement 5G in products and coordinated deployment in new verticals continues to drive progress outside the handset industry.

    我們在開發實施 5G 技術所需的必要產品方面處於領先地位,並致力於推動產業在全球快速無縫部署 5G。隨著我們正在開發的 5G 技術的不斷迭代,這一進程仍在持續進行中。我們的基礎創新,加上我們在產品中應用 5G 以及在新興垂直領域協調部署的能力,不斷推動 5G 技術在手機產業以外的領域取得進展。

  • We continue to invest in complementary technologies that will enable the adoption of 5G use cases that will benefit consumers and businesses in a variety of industries as well as agriculture and the advanced important social objectives of both urban and rural environments, including improvements in health care and education in a more widely connected future.

    我們將繼續投資於互補技術,以推動 5G 應用場景的普及,這將使各行各業的消費者和企業,以及農業和城鄉環境的重要社會目標受益,包括在更互聯的未來改善醫療保健和教育。

  • We have also spent the past decade deep in AI research and development, resulting in the creation of the technology necessary to scale AI across industries and products from smartphones and automotive to the IoT and data centers. To make AI ubiquitous, we focused on making efficient hardware, algorithmic advancements and software tools available to developers and OEMs. We believe AI will transform industries and our technologies will help accelerate the commercialization and scale of AI, making AI ubiquitous around the globe.

    過去十年,我們致力於人工智慧的研發,並成功打造出將人工智慧應用於智慧型手機、汽車、物聯網和資料中心等各行各業及各類產品所需的尖端技術。為了實現人工智慧的普及,我們專注於為開發者和原始設備製造商 (OEM) 提供高效的硬體、先進的演算法和軟體工具。我們相信,人工智慧將改變各行各業,而我們的技術將有助於加速人工智慧的商業化和規模化應用,最終使人工智慧在全球普及。

  • Our commitment to our high-performance processor road map was reflected in our recently announced proposed acquisition of NUVIA. We look forward to combining NUVIA's world-class CPU and technology design team with Snapdragon enable our ecosystem of customers to redefine computing performance, drive innovation and deliver a new class of products and experiences for the 5G era.

    我們對高效能處理器路線圖的承諾體現在我們近期宣布的擬收購NUVIA的計畫中。我們期待將NUVIA世界一流的CPU和技術設計團隊與驍龍結合,協助我們的客戶生態系統重新定義運算效能,推動創新,並為5G時代帶來全新的產品和體驗。

  • Just 2 years ago, we first announced our Snapdragon 855 mobile platform, the world's first commercial platform supporting multi-gigabit 5G and demonstrated end-to-end 5G consumer experiences with real demos over live millimeter wave 5G networks and devices. Today, we have an expanding portfolio of differentiated 5G solutions across multiple tiers of our Snapdragon mobile platforms.

    僅僅兩年前,我們首次發布了驍龍855行動平台,這是全球首個支援多千兆5G的商用平台,並透過毫米波5G網路和裝置的實際演示,展示了端到端的5G消費體驗。如今,我們已在驍龍行動平台的多個層級上,擁有不斷擴展的差異化5G解決方案組合。

  • With high-performance basebands, advanced RF front end designs and leading-edge process nodes for our flagship solutions, we are well positioned to address growing 5G demand in the handset space and across our adjacencies. In RF, our position today is the result of executing on our strategy to extend the breadth of the products we offer. In just a few years, we have emerged as one of the largest RF suppliers in the smartphone ecosystem with a long-term road map, supporting 4G and 5G sub-6 bands in addition to 5G millimeter bands enabling us to expand our RF leadership into end product applications.

    憑藉高效能基頻、先進的射頻前端設計和領先的製程節點,我們能夠更好地滿足手機領域及相關領域日益增長的 5G 需求。在射頻領域,我們如今的地位源自於我們不斷拓展產品線的策略。短短幾年內,我們已發展成為智慧型手機生態系統中最大的射頻供應商之一,並制定了長期發展路線圖,支援 4G 和 5G Sub-6 頻段以及 5G 毫米波頻段,從而將我們在射頻領域的領先地位擴展到終端產品應用領域。

  • The automotive industry continues to change rapidly, and the car is becoming more connected, more autonomous and more electric. As these trends disrupt the industry, 5G connectivity and new experiences and user demands such as always connected digital cabins for infotainment, real-time navigation and entertainment are becoming the new standard. We are working to meet the increasing demands of safe and premium driving experiences powered by 4G LTE and 5G connected services.

    汽車產業正經歷快速變革,汽車的互聯性、自動駕駛性和電動化程度都在不斷提高。隨著這些趨勢顛覆產業格局,5G 連線以及諸如始終在線的數位化座艙(用於資訊娛樂、即時導航和娛樂)等全新體驗和用戶需求正逐漸成為新的標準。我們致力於滿足用戶對安全、優質駕駛體驗日益增長的需求,並提供基於 4G LTE 和 5G 連接服務的解決方案。

  • With integrated cellular V2x, Wifi, Bluetooth and precise positioning technologies, our 4G and 5G platforms are designed to securely connect vehicles to the cloud, each other and the surrounding environment. With over 150 million vehicles on the road today connected with our modems, we are a leader in automotive telematics. We are evolving our strong position in automotive telematics to a strategic industry partner building incumbency with continued innovation as the auto industry undergoes rapid transformation.

    憑藉整合的蜂巢V2X、Wi-Fi、藍牙和精準定位技術,我們的4G和5G平台旨在安全地將車輛連接到雲端、彼此之間以及周圍環境。目前,已有超過1.5億輛汽車接入我們的數據機,使我們成為汽車遠端資訊處理的領導者。隨著汽車產業的快速轉型,我們正不斷鞏固在汽車遠端資訊處理領域的領先地位,並致力於成為策略合作夥伴,透過持續創新鞏固產業領先地位。

  • Our third-generation automotive cockpit solutions have been selected by 20 of the top 25 automakers and our recently announced fourth generation automotive platform demonstrates our leadership in high-performance computer vision, artificial intelligence and multi-sensor processing.

    我們的第三代汽車座艙解決方案已被排名前 25 的汽車製造商中的 20 家選中,而我們最近發布的第四代汽車平台則證明了我們在高性能電腦視覺、人工智慧和多感測器處理方面的領先地位。

  • Lastly, our recently announced strategic engagements with General Motors and leading Tier 1 suppliers, including LG Electronics, Google, Panasonic and Visteon, are further evidence of our strong alignment with the automotive industry.

    最後,我們近期宣布與通用汽車和包括 LG 電子、谷歌、松下和偉世通在內的一級供應商達成的戰略合作,進一步證明了我們與汽車行業的緊密聯繫。

  • Turning to IOT. We continue to drive momentum in compute with the launch of our second-generation Snapdragon HCX, the introduction of our commercial and educational platforms for both Windows and Chrome and continued ecosystem progress. We are also driving industry leadership in XR with over 40 design wins and strong ecosystem momentum with global operator partnerships. We believe XR has the potential to be the next computing platform.

    轉向物聯網領域。我們持續推動運算領域的發展,推出了第二代驍龍HCX處理器,並推出了適用於Windows和Chrome的商業及教育平台,同時不斷完善生態系統。此外,我們在XR領域也處於行業領先地位,贏得了40多個設計項目,並與全球營運商建立了強大的生態系統合作關係。我們相信XR有潛力成為下一個運算平台。

  • Our networking solutions target the full potential of Wi-Fi 6 with a blend of advanced technologies and protocols, targeting networks deployed in enterprise, venue and prosumer applications. We are also extending our advanced Wi-Fi 6 feature profile into the 6 gigahertz spectrum with second-generation platforms. We are capitalizing on the transformation in private and public networks, enabling millimeter wave indoor and outdoor launches in North America and Japan with our small cell solution, bringing higher reliability and speeds to consumers as well as providing connectivity for 5G enterprise private networks of the future.

    我們的網路解決方案融合了先進的技術和協議,旨在充分發揮 Wi-Fi 6 的潛力,目標應用場景涵蓋企業、場館和專業用戶。我們也將先進的 Wi-Fi 6 功能擴展到 6 GHz 頻段,並應用於第二代平台。我們正掌握私人網路和公共網路轉型帶來的機遇,利用小型基地台解決方案在北美和日本推出毫米波室內外網絡,為消費者帶來更高的可靠性和速度,同時也為未來的 5G 企業專用網路提供連接。

  • Lastly, we are accelerating deployment of our core technologies for digitization of nonmobile industries across retail, utilities, transportation and manufacturing applications. It is exciting to see the strategy we laid out several years ago, playing out largely as expected, and placing Qualcomm in a very strong position for Cristiano to carry the vision forward as he executes on the many opportunities in front of us over many years.

    最後,我們正在加速部署核心技術,以實現零售、公用事業、交通運輸和製造業等非行動產業的數位轉型。令人振奮的是,我們幾年前製定的策略基本上按預期推進,這使高通處於非常有利的地位,克里斯蒂亞諾能夠帶領我們抓住未來多年面臨的眾多機遇,繼續推進這一願景。

  • Being CEO of Qualcomm for the last 7 years has been a privilege and an honor. The foundation of Qualcomm's leadership is a relentless commitment to innovating with great products, focusing on large industries with technical challenges that are hard to solve. This is what always gave me the confidence we would succeed even when it wasn't obvious, and I have every confidence Cristiano shares this vision.

    過去七年擔任高通執行長是我的榮幸。高通的領導地位源自於我們始終堅持創新,致力於打造卓越的產品,專注於解決那些技術難度極高的產業難題。正是這種信念讓我始終堅信,即使前景並不明朗,我們也能取得成功。我完全相信克里斯蒂亞諾也認同這個願景。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

    現在我想把電話交給阿卡什。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We're extremely pleased to report strong results to start our fiscal year. We delivered a record first quarter with non-GAAP revenues of $8.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17, which was above the high end of the strong guidance we provided at the beginning of the quarter. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 63% and 119% in revenues and EPS, respectively, driven by strength across QTL and QCT.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家下午好。我們非常高興地宣布,本財年開局業績強勁。第一季非GAAP營收達到創紀錄的82億美元,非GAAP每股收益為2.17美元,高於季初我們給出的強勁預期上限。這些業績反映出營收和每股盈餘分別較去年同期成長63%和119%,主要得益於QTL和QCT業務的強勁表現。

  • In QTL, we recorded revenues of $1.66 billion, up 18% year-over-year and EBT margins of 77%. In the December quarter, we saw a year-over-year reduction of 7% in global 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments compared to our planning assumption of a 5% reduction, reflecting the impact of COVID and softness in the domestic China shipments. In QCT, we delivered record results with revenues of $6.5 billion, up 32% sequentially and 81% year-over-year. These results were driven by strength across handsets, RF front end, automotive and IoT. Our strong revenue growth drove EBT margins of 29%, which was above the high end of our guidance and increased 900 basis points sequentially as we realize the benefit of operating leverage.

    在QTL(第一季),我們錄得營收16.6億美元,年增18%,稅前利潤率達77%。受新冠疫情影響以及中國國內市場出貨量疲軟,12月季度全球3G、4G、5G手機出貨量年減7%,高於我們先前5%的預期降幅。在QCT(第一季),我們取得了創紀錄的業績,營收達65億美元,季增32%,年增81%。這項業績主要得益於手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網業務的強勁成長。強勁的營收成長推動稅前利潤率達到29%,高於我們先前預期的上限,並環比提升900個基點,這得益於我們實現了營運槓桿效應。

  • We're also pleased with our continued diversification as we delivered record revenues in RF front-end, automotive and IoT. RF front-end revenues of $1.1 billion more than doubled on a year-over-year basis, reflecting the strength of our broad product portfolio across all frequency bands and customers.

    我們對業務多元化持續取得進展感到欣慰,射頻前端、汽車和物聯網領域的營收均創歷史新高。射頻前端營收達11億美元,年增超過一倍,這體現了我們覆蓋所有頻段和客戶的廣泛產品組合的強大實力。

  • Automotive revenues of $212 million grew 44% year-over-year as our telematics and digital cockpit products continue to benefit from the industry rebound. In IoT, revenues grew 48% year-over-year to $1 billion across consumer, networking and industrial applications, driven by an acceleration in demand for our products and technologies.

    汽車業務收入達 2.12 億美元,年增 44%,這主要得益於我們的車載資訊服務和數位座艙產品持續受益於產業復甦。物聯網業務營收年增 48%,達到 10 億美元,涵蓋消費者、網路和工業應用領域,這主要得益於市場對我們產品和技術需求的加速成長。

  • Our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses of $1.78 billion was lower than our previous estimate, primarily due to the timing of certain R&D expenses within the fiscal year.

    我們非GAAP合併研發及銷售、管理及行政費用為17.8億美元,低於我們先前的估計,主要是由於本財年內某些研發費用的發生時間。

  • Turning to 5G adoption. We estimate approximately 225 million 5G handsets in calendar 2020 and forecast 450 million to 550 million units in calendar 2021. We're extremely pleased by the adoption of our 5G chipsets across OEM partners with over 800 designs using 5G modem and RF solutions. Our recently announced 5G premium tier mobile platform, the Snapdragon 888 already has over 120 design wins. We now have 5G offerings across several tiers from our premium tier Snapdragon 888 to our recently announced Snapdragon 480, all capable of supporting millimeter wave.

    展望5G普及。我們預計2020年全年5G手機銷量約2.25億部,並預測2021年將達到4.5億至5.5億部。我們非常高興地看到我們的5G晶片組在OEM合作夥伴中廣泛應用,目前已有超過800款產品採用了我們的5G數據機和射頻解決方案。我們近期發表的高階5G行動平台驍龍888已斬獲超過120個設計訂單。目前,我們擁有涵蓋多個產品線的5G產品,從高階驍龍888到近期發表的驍龍480,所有產品均支援毫米波技術。

  • For global 3G/4G/5G handsets, we estimate that shipments declined 12% on a year-over-year basis in calendar 2020. In calendar 2021, we expect total handsets to grow in high single digits year-over-year. This assumes an impact from COVID in the first half, consistent with the exit rate of 2020 and a recovery in the second half. In addition, QCT's addressable market will expand to include Huawei's existing share, which is estimated to be approximately 16% of total handsets in 2019.

    我們預計,2020年全球3G/4G/5G手機出貨量將年減12%。 2021年,我們預計手機出貨量將達到接近兩位數的年增率。這項預測是基於上半年受新冠疫情影響(與2020年同期成長率一致)以及下半年復甦的假設。此外,QCT的目標市場將擴大,涵蓋華為目前佔據的市場份額,據估計,華為在2019年約佔全球手機出貨量的16%。

  • Turning to our second quarter guidance. We are forecasting revenues of $7.2 billion to $8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.55 to $1.75, a year-over-year increase of 46% and 88%, respectively, at the midpoints. In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.25 billion to $1.45 billion, and EBITDA margins of 66% to 70%. This is in line with normal seasonality following the strong holiday quarter, and reflects the slightly lower handset forecast I previously outlined.

    接下來是第二季業績指引。我們預計營收為72億美元至80億美元,非GAAP每股收益為1.55美元至1.75美元,兩者中位數分別年增46%和88%。在QTL業務方面,我們預計營收為12.5億美元至14.5億美元,EBITDA利潤率為66%至70%。這符合假日季強勁銷售後的正常季節性預期,也反映了我之前略微下調的手機銷售預測。

  • In QCT, we expect revenues of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, up 52% year-over-year and EBT margins of 23% to 25%, reflecting EBT dollar growth of 125% versus the year ago quarter. Consistent with historical trends, we estimate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up 5% to 6% sequentially due to normal calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs. We estimate that the pending acquisition of NUVIA will increase fiscal '21 non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses by approximately $100 million, a portion of which is contemplated in our second quarter guidance.

    本季營收為60億至65億美元,年增52%;稅前利潤率預計為23%至25%,較去年同期成長125%。與歷史趨勢一致,我們預期非GAAP合併研發及銷售、管理及行政費用將較上季成長5%至6%,主要是由於部分員工相關成本的年度調整。我們預計,即將完成的NUVIA的收購將使2021財年非GAAP合併研發和銷售、管理及行政費用增加約1億美元,其中一部分已計入我們第二季度的業績指引中。

  • Looking forward to the third fiscal quarter, we estimate QTL revenues to be in a similar range as our second quarter guidance and expect QCT earnings to double on a year-over-year basis. This forecast contemplates the current seasonality of the QCT business following the strength in the first half of the fiscal year, which was driven by 5G flagship launches, including Apple, the holiday season and Chinese New Year. In addition, we are seeing demand significantly outpacing supply given the constraints affecting the industry.

    展望第三財季,我們預期QTL營收將與第二財季的預期基本持平,並預期QCT獲利將年增一倍。這項預測考慮了QCT業務目前的季節性因素,此前該業務在上半年表現強勁,主要得益於包括蘋果在內的5G旗艦產品發布、假日季以及中國春節的推動。此外,鑑於該行業面臨的種種限制,我們預計需求將顯著超過供應。

  • Beyond the third quarter, we continue to forecast strong growth across QCT, driven by new device launches, design win traction and strength in our adjacent platforms. Lastly, we launched our latest annual corporate responsibility and ESG report yesterday, which is now available on our website.

    第三季之後,我們預計QCT業務將繼續保持強勁成長,這主要得益於新設備的上市、設計訂單的增加以及我們相關平台的強勁表現。最後,我們昨天發布了最新的年度企業責任和ESG報告,該報告現已發佈在我們的網站上。

  • I'm pleased to share that we have successfully met or exceeded our 2020 goals and have disclosed 2025 targets focused across key areas of diversity and inclusion, purposeful innovation and reducing our carbon footprint. We continue to respond to the expectations of our stakeholders to disclose ESG information in alignment with international standards.

    我很高興地宣布,我們已成功實現或超額完成2020年目標,並公佈了2025年目標,重點關注多元化和包容性、目標明確的創新以及減少碳足跡等關鍵領域。我們將繼續回應利害關係人的期望,並按照國際標準揭露ESG資訊。

  • Before I finish my prepared remarks, I want to thank our employees for their continued hard work and focused execution. I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.

    在我結束事先準備好的發言之前,我想感謝我們員工的持續辛勤工作和專注執行。現在我把電話轉回給毛里西奧。

  • Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

    Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

    謝謝你,阿卡什。接線員,我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Before I ask my question, congratulations to both Steve and Cristiano. And so if I can just start off with the seasonality here, I think what you're guiding to for the QCT segment is a mid-single-digit decline in -- seasonally in revenues versus more of a mid-teens pick line in QTL. Can you just help us understand the drivers? What's causing that difference. And I think that's leading to some concerns in investors today that the sell-in of chips is greater than the sell-through piece and leading to some inventory build. So I just want to see if you can address that as well.

    在我提問之前,先祝賀史蒂夫和克里斯蒂亞諾。首先,我想談談季節性因素。你們預期QCT業務的營收將出現個位數中段的季節性下滑,而QTL業務的收入預計將出現十幾個百分點的下滑。能否請你們解釋一下造成這種差異的原因?是什麼因素導致了這種差異?我認為這引發了投資者的一些擔憂,即晶片的進貨量大於出貨量,從而導致庫存積壓。所以我想請你們也解釋一下這個問題。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Samik, this is Akash. We're not seeing any significant inventory build in the channels. So let me just maybe clarify that to start with. If you think about QTL revenues sequentially from December quarter to March quarter, we've talked about seasonality in that business consistently in the past. And so our guidance really reflects that. So it's no different than kind of the shape of the year that you generally see in the handset market and mix of OEMs being reflected in the dollars. So in the past, we talked about $1.7 billion midpoint, going to $1.4 billion from December to March. And what we are guiding is we came in just below the midpoint in the December quarter, and we're guiding similarly just below the $1.4 billion for the March quarter. So that's the message on QTL.

    是的,Samik,我是Akash。我們目前沒有看到渠道庫存顯著成長。首先,我想澄清一下。如果你看一下QTL從12月季到3月季度的環比營收,我們過去一直強調這項業務的季節性因素。因此,我們的業績指引也充分體現了這一點。這與手機市場整體的年度波動以及OEM廠商組合的變化並無二致,最終都會反映在營收上。過去,我們曾預測12月季營收中位數為17億美元,而3月季則為14億美元。我們目前的業績指引是,12月季實際營收略低於中位數,3月季也同樣略低於14億美元。以上就是關於QTL的預測。

  • On QCT, clearly, with Apple now in our revenue stream, there's a different seasonality than we've had in the past. And so you see kind of that becoming a factor. But when you take -- remove that, our seasonality is actually extremely strong with significant growth from December to March quarter. And really strength across not just mobile platform with the launch of our Snapdragon 888 chipset but also across RFFE, auto and IoT being strong as well. So it's really strength across the board. And what you see in the numbers is the seasonality of the revenue profile showing up.

    顯然,隨著蘋果加入我們的收入來源,季度營收的季節性波動與以往有所不同。因此,你會看到這確實是一個影響因素。但如果排除這個因素,我們的季節性成長實際上非常強勁,從12月到3月季度實現了顯著成長。這種強勁成長不僅體現在行動平台(得益於驍龍888晶片組的發布),也體現在射頻前端(RFFE)、汽車和物聯網(IoT)等業務領域。因此,我們的整體業績都非常強勁。而從數據中你看到的,正是營收季節性波動的影響。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. If I can quickly follow-up. I think historically, pre -- before the U.S. restrictions came into place, you've talked about Huawei not really being material in terms of contribution to earnings, even though you had some shipments there. Do you see a likely change or any material change post the restructuring of that business, where there's a part of the business sold to on our brand? And I think there are also some restructurings going on for the Huawei brand any changes that could lead to?

    好的,明白了。如果可以的話,我想快速追問一下。我認為,在美方實施限制之前,您曾說過華為對公司獲利的貢獻並不大,儘管你們也有一些華為產品的出貨量。在華為業務重組之後,這種情況可能會改變嗎?或者說,會有什麼實質的改變嗎?華為品牌本身也在進行一些重組,這些重組可能會導致什麼變化呢?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. As -- Samik, as I said in my prepared remarks, we see the Huawei market share, Huawei portion of the market really has a significant SAM growth opportunity for us as either the share goes to other OEMs or to Honor or Huawei continues, we have an opportunity to sell into it. So kind of longer-term in the second half of the year, we feel like that's a significant opportunity for us. But at this point in our second quarter guidance there, we don't have material revenue assumed for Huawei or Honor.

    是的。正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的,我們認為華為的市場份額,尤其是華為所佔的市場份額,對我們來說確實蘊藏著巨大的成長潛力。無論這部分份額最終流向其他廠商,或是落入榮耀或華為手中,我們都有機會從中獲利。因此,從長遠來看,尤其是在下半年,我們認為這是一個重要的機會。但就目前我們對第二季的業績預期而言,我們並未對華為或榮耀的營收做出重大預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

  • Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • My best to Steve for navigating some tough times and best wishes to Cristiano also. My question, I guess, just focusing on the margin front, really strong margins on QCT. I know there's some seasonality into Q1 and increased cost. But given the strong margin start to the year, Akash, how should we think about margin trends over time as you leverage and harvest that 5G investment?

    祝史蒂夫順利度過難關,也祝福克里斯蒂亞諾一切順利。我的問題主要是關於利潤率方面,QCT的利潤率確實非常強勁。我知道第一季會受到季節性因素和成本增加的影響。但是,阿卡什,鑑於年初利潤率如此強勁,隨著你們充分利用和實現5G投資的收益,我們應該如何看待利潤率的長期趨勢?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So thanks, Mike, for that question. We're very happy with the QCT margins in the December quarter. I mean, really at 29% operating margins and gross margins were extremely strong as well and contributing to the strength in the operating margin profile. So very happy to see that. Really, when you look forward, there are a couple of factors driving our margin profile. Overall, from a gross margin perspective, there really isn't a specific trend. As we've said in the past, we feel like we have the ability to hold margins in the -- in the -- in -- consistent with our recent history and potential upside opportunity to grow it. And so we still have the same view. And operating margin will then just become kind of something that falls out based on the revenue profile. But just kind of when you abstract out the seasonality, we're pretty happy that we set a target at Analyst Day last -- about 15 months ago, and we are on our way to meeting and exceeding what we set out.

    是的。謝謝Mike的提問。我們對12月季度的QCT利潤率非常滿意。我的意思是,29%的營業利潤率和毛利率都非常強勁,也為整體強勁的營業利潤率做出了貢獻。看到這樣的表現我們非常高興。展望未來,有幾個因素會影響我們的利潤率。整體而言,從毛利率的角度來看,並沒有明顯的趨勢。正如我們之前所說,我們認為我們有能力將毛利率維持在與近期歷史水準一致,並且還有成長潛力。所以我們仍然堅持同樣的觀點。營業利潤率最終會根據營收狀況而改變。但拋開季節性因素,我們很高興在上次分析師日(大約15個月前)設定的目標,我們正在朝著實現甚至超越目標的方向前進。

  • Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a follow-up on the margins on the QTL side with a lot of the legal things dying down and signing over 120 5G contracts. You see leverage on that side also. Maybe if you can reduce the legal costs? Or is there still high audit costs involved there?

    好的。接下來我想跟進QTL方面的利潤情況,因為很多法律問題都已解決,而且我們已經簽署了120多份5G合約。您也看到了這方面的議價能力。也許可以降低法律成本?或者說,審計成本仍然很高?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Mike, from a QTL perspective, really legal costs have been at a stable lower level for the last several quarters. And so the margin profile that you're seeing kind of reflects stabilization of the legal cost. And really, it's about the top line revenue and focusing on kind of expanding and keeping the licensing business steady going forward.

    是的。麥克,從QTL的角度來看,過去幾季法律成本一直穩定在較低水準。因此,你看到的利潤率也反映了法律成本的穩定性。實際上,關鍵在於營收,以及專注於拓展和維持授權業務的穩定發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Chris Caso。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • So for my first question, I wish you could address the shortages. And obviously, it's something we've heard from a number of others in the industry this quarter. Can you talk about the extent to -- in your opening remarks, you mentioned that revenue would have been higher if not for the shortages. Could you help us to quantify that some? And then perhaps talk about the next couple of quarters, how that may play out if you recapture some of the business that you weren't able to ship in the December quarter and how that proceeds.

    我的第一個問題,希望您能談談供貨短缺的問題。顯然,本季我們也從業內其他一些公司聽到了類似的情況。您在開場白中提到,如果沒有供貨短缺,收入會更高。能否具體說明一下短缺的程度?另外,能否談談未來幾季的情況,如果您能重新獲得一些在12月季度未能交付的訂單,情況會如何發展?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Chris, this is Cristiano. Yes, happy to address. We have seen, I think, probably shortage across the entire industry. There is a couple of factors driving that. One is the shape recovery, I think, across many of the sectors that were present now. We saw acceleration of digital transformation also consistent with this trend of the enterprise transformation of the home. And especially for Qualcomm and QCT, we have seen an opportunity with the expansion of addressable market. Huawei represent or represented 16% of the market. That becomes available to us across all of our OEMs. So that's driving a situation that demand is outpacing supply. We're happy what we see right now on the premium tier. For example, in high tier, we see share gains in fiscal '21, and we expect the situation to normalize towards the second half of the year.

    克里斯,我是克里斯蒂亞諾。是的,很高興回答這個問題。我認為,我們已經看到整個行業可能都出現了短缺。這主要受幾個因素影響。首先是許多行業正在復甦。其次,我們看到數位轉型加速,這與企業向家庭轉型趨勢相符。特別是對於高通和QCT而言,我們看到了潛在市場擴張帶來的機會。華為曾經佔據或現在佔據了16%的市場。這部分市場對我們所有OEM廠商來說都是有利的。因此,目前的需求超過了供應。我們對目前高端市場的表現感到滿意。例如,在高端市場,我們預計2021財年的市佔率將有所成長,我們預計這種情況將在下半年趨於正常。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And with that, you made some comments about the fiscal third quarter that perhaps you could clarify. First, on the QTL side. You talked about similar levels on QTL. If you can help us reconcile that with your view of overall handset units, I think you said growing 7% sequentially. And then you gave us something to go on with regard to the QCT side with the profitability doubling. And I guess, with that, should we assume that would -- that profitability doubling would be at similar operating margins to what you're guiding for, for the March quarter?

    好的。您剛才提到了一些關於第三財季的信息,或許您可以澄清一下。首先,關於QTL(手機銷量)方面。您提到QTL的銷售水準與之前相近。您能否幫我們把這個數字和您對整體手機銷售的預期(我記得您說過環比增長7%)聯繫起來?然後,您提到QCT(手機銷售)方面盈利能力翻番,這讓我們對QCT有了更清晰的認識。我想,基於此,我們是否可以假設獲利能力翻倍意味著,其營業利潤率與您對3月份季度的預期相近?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Chris. So this is Akash. I think QTL, as we've said in the past, we kind of see the market consistent between March and June quarters in terms of how the overall market -- mobile market behaves. And so that's what is reflected in the data point we provided for the June quarter. QCT, I think it's a fair way of thinking about it. We're expecting it to be extremely strong, doubling profit year-over-year basis. And margin profile is really going to kind of fall out from the scale of the revenue, as we discussed earlier.

    是的,克里斯。這位是阿卡什。我認為,正如我們之前所說,從整體市場(尤其是行動市場)的走勢來看,QTL(季度業績)在3月和6月這兩個季度之間基本上保持一致。而我們提供的6月季數據也反映了這一點。 QCT(季度業績),我認為這樣理解比較合理。我們預計QCT將表現非常強勁,利潤將年增一倍。正如我們之前討論的,利潤率將主要取決於營收規模。

  • From -- just what is reflected in our third quarter numbers is just the natural seasonality of the business now that we have Apple in our revenue stream and their -- the timing of their purchases within the year is reflected in the data points we are providing.

    從我們第三季的數據來看,這僅僅是業務的自然季節性波動,因為我們的收入來源中現在包含了蘋果公司,而他們一年中的採購時間也反映在我們提供的數據點中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you can give us color on the growth in RF being so impressive when you look at 5G units potentially kind of more than doubling, when you look at millimeter wave really at 1 customer in 1 region. I'm just surprised at how robust December is. And kind of can you talk to the sustainability of those revenue levels and the growth drivers going forward?

    我想請您詳細解釋一下射頻業務成長如此迅猛的原因,尤其是在5G設備數量可能翻倍的情況下,而毫米波業務目前僅在一個地區擁有一個客戶。我對12月份的強勁表現感到驚訝。您能否談談這些收入水平的可持續性以及未來的成長動力?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Joe, this is Cristiano. Yes, it's very consistent to what we have been saying since the beginning of 5G. We saw 5G as an entry point for us. We have highly differentiated solution with our modem to antenna platform. And all of those designs, I think we updated the design count now on 5G as in excess of 800 designs. They all contain 5G RF front-end components. Also, we like that it's very diversified our effort and revenues across all customers, also with a lot of sub 6, it's not only millimeter-wave, even though we are very happy with the expansion prospects of millimeter-wave. And that's definitely an accelerator for Qualcomm. So it's a business, which is now one of the fastest-growing business we have. We're happy to achieve the threshold of $1 billion and will continue to grow as we grow 5G.

    喬,我是克里斯蒂亞諾。是的,這與我們自5G誕生以來一直強調的觀點非常一致。我們把5G視為我們的切入點。我們擁有高度差異化的數據機到天線平台解決方案。所有這些設計,我想我們現在已經更新了5G設計的數量,超過800個。它們都包含5G射頻前端組件。此外,我們很高興看到它使我們的業務和收入在所有客戶群體中實現了多元化,也涵蓋了大量6GHz以下頻段,而不僅僅是毫米波,儘管我們對毫米波的擴展前景非常樂觀。這無疑加速了高通的發展。因此,這項業務現在是我們成長最快的業務之一。我們很高興達到10億美元的營收門檻,並將隨著5G業務的成長而持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • First, I wanted to dig again in the chipset margin guidance. So you're guiding chipset profit dollars down over $400 million sequentially on about $280 million revenue decline. It's like 150% negative incremental margin. But presumably, the mix ought to be getting better as Apple and the handset stuff rolls off of the adjacencies. It sounds like they grow. So like what is going on in there? Like why are the margins coming down that much given the revenue trajectory?

    首先,我想再深入探討一下晶片組利潤率預期。你們預計晶片組利潤將季減超過4億美元,營收也將下降約2.8億美元。這相當於利潤率下降了150%。但照理說,隨著蘋果和手機業務從相關業務中剝離出來,情況應該會有所改善。聽起來它們都在成長。那麼,這裡面到底發生了什麼事?考慮到營收成長的趨勢,為什麼利潤率會下降這麼多?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So a couple of factors, Stacy, it's Akash. First is, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we typically see a kind of a resetting of certain expenses on the OpEx side. So you have OpEx growth that happens between the December and the March quarter. And it's -- this is consistent with history. So if you go back and look at our numbers in the past, you kind of see the same increase. So that impacts the margin a bit.

    是的。 Stacy,我是Akash,這裡有幾個因素。首先,正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,我們通常會看到營運支出方面某些費用的調整。因此,營運支出成長通常發生在12月到3月這個季度之間。這與歷史數據一致。如果你回顧我們過去的財務數據,你會發現類似的成長。所以這會對利潤率產生一定影響。

  • Second is we did see some strength in certain pockets in the December quarter in our gross margin profile. So gross margin profile was higher in the December quarter than our recent trend. And what we're guiding forward is something that's consistent with our recent trends. So any upside to that would be something that, of course, we're going to try to execute on, but it'll be upside to our guidance.

    其次,我們在12月季度的部分業務中觀察到毛利率表現強勁。 12月季的毛利率高於近期平均。我們對未來的業績預期與近期趨勢保持一致。因此,任何利多因素我們當然都會努力把握,但這也會反映在我們目前的業績預期上。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • And if I can follow-up on QTL margins. So you're guiding 68% on whatever it is, $1.35 billion at the midpoint. In 2019, you were actually running higher than that. You were at like $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, so lower revenues. And you've had margins that were in line to higher than what you're guiding now with legal costs that presumably were higher. So like what's going on in the QTL side? Why aren't margins higher on this revenue level?

    我可以再問一下QTL的利潤率嗎?你們目前給出的利潤率預期是68%,目標營收為13.5億美元(取中間值)。但2019年你們的實際營收更高,大約在11億到13億美元之間,也就是更低的營收水準。而且,你們之前的利潤率一直高於甚至超過了現在的預期,考慮到當時的法律成本可能更高。那麼,QTL方面到底發生了什麼事?為什麼在目前的營收水準下,利潤率卻沒有更高?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Stacy, there's no something specific going on. I mean, if you go back to Analyst Day, and I don't have the 2019 numbers in front of me. But if you go back to Analyst Day, what we laid out in front of you for the full year for QTL where we thought the margin for the year would be higher than 70% with Huawei resolved. We are very much executing to the target we laid out. We think we're in a good place to execute on it.

    是的,Stacy,沒有什麼特別的事情發生。我的意思是,如果你回顧一下分析師日(我手頭上沒有2019年的數據),我們會告訴你,我們在分析師日上向你闡述了QTL全年的業績目標,當時我們認為,在解決華為問題後,QTL的利潤率會高於70%。我們目前正朝著既定目標穩步前進,我們認為我們有能力實現這一目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just revisiting on the margin side. Given the shortages you're seeing, I'm just kind of -- if you just comment on your input costs and whether that's kind of rolled in yet or whether that's an impact kind of going forward to QCT margins?

    我再來談談利潤率方面。鑑於你們目前遇到的短缺情況,我想問一下——你們的投入成本是否已經反映在利潤率中,或者這是否會對未來的QCT利潤率產生影響?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think, Blayne, as you'd expect, a lot of our conversations with the customers and suppliers around how we address supply. And our agreements on price generally tend to be longer term. So really, that's where we are focused on is kind of being good partners to our customers and focusing on supply. Margin is consistent with our recent history, and that's what's reflected in the guidance.

    是的。布萊恩,正如你所料,我們與客戶和供應商的許多溝通都圍繞著如何解決供應問題。而且,我們達成的價格協議通常都是長期的。所以,我們真正專注的是成為客戶的好夥伴,並專注於供應。利潤率與我們近期的歷史水準一致,這也反映在我們的業績指引中。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then just for the June quarter, the doubling of QCT profits. I think obviously, the new large customer, you may be seasonally down there. Just on the Android side, that's typically a stronger quarter, particularly if the market is going to double. So just kind of the moving pieces because it looks like QCT would be down sequentially from March to June to get that doubling of profit. So just any perspective on your outlook with Android within that.

    然後,就六月的季度而言,QCT的利潤翻了一番。我認為,很明顯,新大客戶的業績可能會受到季節性因素的影響而有所下滑。就安卓業務而言,這通常是一個比較強勁的季度,尤其是在市場規模翻倍的情況下。所以,目前的情況比較複雜,因為從三月到六月,QCT的利潤似乎較上季下降,才能達到獲利翻倍。因此,請問您對安卓業務的前景有何看法?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Blayne, there isn't a specific trend that I'd like to point out there. I think our -- the strength of our business remains consistent between the quarters on Android.

    是的。布萊恩,我並沒有特別想指出的趨勢。我認為我們安卓業務的強勁勢頭在各個季度之間保持穩定。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Yes. Maybe -- this is Cristiano. I just want to add a small data point. If you -- there is as a cash out line, seasonality because of 1 large U.S. customer. But if you look of what is happening outside that, actually, we're very happy with what we see in terms of premium and high-tier share gains. I pointed to the addressable market that is becoming available to us from Huawei, and that's going to be a growth story, especially for the QCT premium and high-tier as we go throughout the quarters.

    是的。也許——我是克里斯蒂亞諾。我只想補充一點數據。如果你——這裡有一個現金流出線,這是因為一個美國大客戶帶來的季節性因素。但如果你看看除此之外的情況,實際上,我們對高端和高端市場份額的成長非常滿意。我指出了華為為我們帶來的潛在市場,這將是一個成長點,尤其是在我們接下來的幾個季度中,QCT的高端和高端市場將會迎來成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Tal Liani with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的塔爾·利亞尼。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • You guided smartphone to be going up, going from minus 12% last year to go up high single-digit this year. Can you give us like a little bit of color of regions, also kind of types of smartphones, any color on the composition of the growth this year?

    您曾預測智慧型手機市場將出現成長,從去年的-12%轉為今年的接近兩位數成長。您能否簡單介紹一下不同地區、不同類型智慧型手機的市場狀況,以及今年成長的組成?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Tal, this is Akash. So really, what our guidance, just to reiterate it, we were saying the market was down 12%, '19 to '20, calendar '19 to calendar '20, and would grow in high single digits from '20 to '21. And this reflects kind of continuing COVID impact in the first half and then recover in the second half. Really within that market, what's the critical driver for us is how 5G plays out. And so if you look at our 5G forecast, we're expecting it to go up from $225 million in calendar '20 to a midpoint of $500 million. So very strong growth, and that's kind of the key driver for us in terms of how our revenue expands on the chip side.

    是的。 Tal,我是Akash。我們先前的預測是,2019年至2020年(2019年到2020年)市場下滑了12%,但2020年至2021年將達到接近兩位數的成長。這反映了上半年新冠疫情的持續影響,以及下半年的復甦。在這個市場中,對我們而言,關鍵的驅動因素是5G的發展。如果你看一下我們對5G的預測,我們預計其規模將從2020年的2.25億美元增長到5億美元的中位數。這是一個非常強勁的成長,也是我們晶片業務收入成長的關鍵驅動因素。

  • And then maybe last thing I'll point out is to Cristiano's comment earlier, Huawei has been a very large OEM, and it was really from a chip perspective, it was mostly HiSilicon that was satisfying the demand. Now with the change in the market, we have kind of 16% of the market that was not available to us before being available. So as we kind of look further out, we see this as a pretty material expansion of SAM for us.

    最後我想補充一點,關於克里斯蒂亞諾之前的評論,華為一直是一家規模龐大的OEM廠商,從晶片角度來看,主要是海思滿足了市場需求。現在隨著市場的變化,我們獲得了之前無法觸及的約16%的市場份額。因此,展望未來,我們認為這將極大地拓展我們的SAM業務。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • So just as a follow-up. If the market is going from declines to growth, what's the impact on QTL at the high level, meaning is this growth going to be in high-end countries where anyway, you're hitting the limit of the ceiling for the price of $400? Or is it going to be mostly in developing markets where the growth in -- the improvement in growth can translate also improvement in the total addressable market, meaning units times price. I'm trying to understand the impact of the ceiling to the price for QTL.

    所以,我再補充一點。如果市場從下滑轉為成長,這對QTL的高層級影響是什麼?也就是說,這種成長會主要集中在高端市場嗎?畢竟,在這些市場,價格已經達到400美元的上限了。還是說,成長主要會集中在發展中市場?在發展中市場,成長的改善也能轉化為潛在市場規模的擴大,也就是銷售量乘以價格的提升。我想了解價格上限對QTL的影響。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So I think from a QTL perspective, the way we see 5G benefiting the ASP is as 5G goes into lower tiers. Below the ceiling, it kind of mix richer for us as people upgrade devices, they buy more expensive devices, and that would be the opportunity for QTL. But we -- again, we're not planning that into our forecast at this point, and we see it as a potential upside as it materializes.

    是的。所以從QTL(品質提升型業者)的角度來看,我們認為5G對ASP(平均售價)的提升體現在5G普及到更低階套餐時。低於套餐上限,隨著用戶升級設備、購買更高階的設備,我們的產品組合會更加豐富,這為QTL帶來了機會。但是,我們目前還沒有將此納入預測,我們認為這只是一個潛在的成長點,需要時間才能顯現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • A question in -- first of all, congratulations to both Steve and Cristiano. I wanted to go back on the QCT side to the China dynamic and that 16% increase in your SAM. How are you guys handling the potential inventory dynamic where the Honor side might keep the share and you could get design wins there, but all of the aspiring share gainers are also going to build to take share? So the potential for inventory coming back. I realize in a period of shortage, it might not be an issue for you, but how are you managing avoiding that pitfall?

    首先,祝賀Steve和Cristiano。我想再問QCT方面的情況,特別是你們在中國市場的動態以及SAM成長16%的問題。你們是如何應對潛在的庫存波動的? Honor可能會繼續保持市場份額,你們也可能在那裡贏得一些設計訂單,但所有渴望搶佔市場份額的廠商也會加緊生產。所以庫存回升的可能性很大。我知道在供應短缺時期,這可能對你們來說不是問題,但你們是如何避免這種情況發生的呢?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Ross, it's Akash. It's definitely something that we're trying to manage carefully. I mean, we do have very strong demand from various OEMs. But as you rightly pointed out, it really is more of a supply-driven market. And so we have more opportunity to sell and increase our revenue then we can supply at this point. So it's really -- that's the primary focus, and we don't really have any inventory concerns at this point with our customers.

    是的,羅斯,是阿卡什。我們確實在謹慎處理這個問題。我的意思是,我們確實收到了來自各家OEM廠商的強勁需求。但正如您所指出的,這實際上是一個供應驅動型市場。因此,我們目前的銷售和收入成長機會大於我們的供應能力。所以,這才是我們工作的重中之重,目前我們對客戶的庫存沒有任何擔憂。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • If I can...

    如果可以的話…

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And as my follow-up...

    我的後續問題是…

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Ross, this is Cristiano. I just want to add 1 thing. Given the size of those customers, the semiconductor supply chain is probably sized for what the market size is. So that in itself provides some correction on inventory.

    羅斯,我是克里斯蒂亞諾。我只想補充一點。考慮到這些客戶的規模,半導體供應鏈的規模可能與市場規模基本相符。因此,這本身就能在一定程度上調整庫存。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Great. I guess as my follow-up, if I went back to the margin side of things. It seems like you're guiding the implied gross margin down about 3 points sequentially in the March quarter. And I understand QTL goes down and QCT up. So from a mix perspective, that would happen, but it's still a little bit greater than I would have expected. You answered in the prior question, Akash, a little bit about a normalization that you're assuming there. I wanted to dive a little into what was driving the upside in the December quarter? And why would that change going into the March quarter?

    好的。我想接著問一個關於利潤率的問題。您似乎預計3月季度的隱含毛利率將較上季下降約3個百分點。我知道QTL會下降,而QCT會上升。從產品組合的角度來看,這種情況是會發生的,但仍然比我預期的要高一些。 Akash,您在先前的問題中已經稍微提到了您假設的正常化。我想深入探討一下,是什麼因素推動了12月季度的上漲?為什麼這種情況會在3月季度發生變化?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So I think, Ross, it was -- the December quarter upside was just driven by mix across businesses, and we have certain customers who made purchases earlier than they would usually purchase. So it's just more operational mix that drove the upside. And so we're not forecasting that at this point going forward.

    是的。所以我覺得,羅斯,12月季度的成長僅僅是由於各業務板塊的組合調整,以及部分客戶比往常更早下單所致。因此,成長主要源自於營運組合的調整。所以,我們目前預計未來不會出現這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Matt Ramsay。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • For my first question, which I think a number of folks have asked about this 16% of the market that was Huawei that's now available to you. And I think you guys all answered about potential inventory build up to this point. But no secret that Huawei had been building finished goods and semiconductor inventories going into this situation. Cristiano, any thoughts as to how long they can remain in the market and win that opportunity to -- for share shift may present itself to you guys from a timing perspective?

    我的第一個問題,我想很多人都問過,是關於華為之前佔據的16%的市場份額現在歸你們所有這件事。我想你們之前都回答過庫存積壓的問題。但眾所周知,華為在這種情況發生之前一直在囤積成品和半導體庫存。克里斯蒂亞諾,從時機角度來看,你們認為華為還能在市場上堅持多久,並抓住機會——因為市場份額可能會改變——?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Matt, thanks for your question. Look, we measure those things based on the design activity. And Huawei can really predict how much inventory they have. Especially on the high and premium tiers, whether you get range through a carrier in the portfolio or you get range in the retailer, the market is already moving. And as I said earlier, we have -- we've seen very strong design activity. We are in a positive position because we're very well hedged. If iOS wins, if Samsung Android wins, if Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi wins or even if, over time, companies like Owner wins, we're very well positioned there. And we'll see how they play out. But I will say that because of how distributors and the carriers think about it, the portfolio is already switching, and that's reflecting in the design activity we see right now.

    馬特,謝謝你的提問。我們衡量這些指標是基於設計活動。華為確實能夠準確預測庫存量。尤其是在高端和旗艦市場,無論你是透過營運商管道還是零售商管道獲得產品,市場都在改變。正如我之前所說,我們已經看到了非常強勁的設計活動。我們處於有利地位,因為我們做好了充分的對沖。如果iOS最終勝出,如果三星安卓系統勝出,如果vivo、OPPO、小米勝出,甚至最終像Owner這樣的公司勝出,我們都能很好地應對。我們會拭目以待。但我必須指出的是,由於經銷商和營運商的考量,產品組合已經在發生變化,這反映在我們目前看到的設計活動中。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Got it. I guess an unrelated follow-up question. I was interested in the acquisition of NUVIA. The team had made some changes on the CPU side a few years ago to be, I think, more dependent on, I guess, licensed cores directly from ARM for the Snapdragon portfolio. And I wonder what the acquisition of NUVIA might signal around your intentions there, number one. And number two, about ambitions into markets that include Chromebooks, Notebooks, 5G connected consumer devices, et cetera. If there's any comments there on the TAM, Akash, that would be helpful.

    明白了。我想再問一個無關的後續問題。我對收購紐威科技(NUVIA)很感興趣。幾年前,團隊在CPU方面進行了一些調整,我認為是為了更依賴直接從ARM授權的驍龍核心產品。我想知道,收購紐威科技是否預示著你們在該領域的意圖,這是第一點。第二點,你們在Chromebook、筆記型電腦、5G連接消費性電子設備等市場的雄心壯志是什麼?阿卡什,如果你能就這些市場的潛在市場規模(TAM)發表一些看法,那就太好了。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • So Matt, let me just start, and I'll shift to Akash to talk about the TAM. Look, we're very excited about that acquisition. And it's probably very clear. If you look on the announcement we made, one thing that was really incredible is the support we received from the mobile ecosystem. Every single OEM was there with the exception of 2, which -- it doesn't really apply to them. And then you have the entire computing ecosystem there, both across the Windows and Chrome. For us, it basically reflects this view that we had of full conversions between mobile and computing. I think we're in the very beginning of that with our Windows and Snapdragon program. And create opportunities for us to do a step function increase in performance with the power advantage of Qualcomm, both across premium smartphones as well as the computing segment. And that is likely to be a key differentiation for Qualcomm going forward.

    好了,Matt,我先開始吧,接下來請Akash談談TAM(目標市場規模)。我們對這次收購感到非常興奮,這一點可能很明顯。如果你看看我們發布的公告,你會發現最令人難以置信的是我們獲得了行動生態系統的支持。除了兩家OEM廠商之外,幾乎所有廠商都參與了,不過這兩家廠商的情況可能不太一樣。此外,整個運算生態系統,包括Windows和Chrome平台,也都給予了大力支持。對我們來說,這基本上反映了我們對行動和運算全面轉型的願景。我認為,透過我們的Windows和驍龍項目,我們正處於這項轉型的初期階段。這將為我們創造機會,利用高通的功耗優勢,在高階智慧型手機和運算領域實現效能的飛躍式提升。這很可能成為高通未來發展的關鍵差異化優勢。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • And really for the -- if you think about the addressable market for the PC and the Chromebooks market, this is over a couple of hundred million of units, right? So it's a very large market. And what's really important for us is to be able to combine CPU -- leading CPU technology, along with the other assets that we have in mobile and address this market in a differentiated fashion. And so we feel pretty good about our ability to do that.

    想想PC和Chromebook市場的潛在市場規模,超過數億台,對吧?這是一個非常龐大的市場。對我們來說,真正重要的是能夠將領先的CPU技術與我們在行動領域的其他優勢結合起來,以差異化的方式開拓這個市場。因此,我們對實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

  • I'll also say the CPU has a lot of implications outside mobile phones and PC market along with -- into auto and IoT as well. So it's an asset that's going to be broadly relevant to the end markets we pursue.

    我還想說,CPU 的應用範圍遠不止於手機和 PC 市場,還包括汽車和物聯網等領域。因此,它對我們所追求的終端市場來說是一項具有廣泛意義的資產。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • I just had a couple of questions here. Just kind of checking back on the inventory thing, kind of looking at the full year. So maybe first, I mean, how does Qualcomm kind of mitigate the idea that some people are overbuilding on the smartphone side, trying to gain share from Huawei? And we're going to have a back half kind of drop off. And then secondly, maybe a better way to ask this question. I know you guys won't give full year guidance. But if I look at the full year in terms of calendar year basis, what kind of balance do you guys think the revenue is going to look like? Is it going to be more 45% -- 55%? Just how should a calendar year look like now that Apple is kind of a major customer for you guys?

    我這裡有幾個問題。主要是想了解庫存狀況,以及全年業績的展望。首先,我想問的是,高通如何應對一些廠商為了搶佔華為的市佔率而過度生產智慧型手機的局面?我們預計下半年的銷量會下滑。其次,或許換個方式問好。我知道你們不會給出全年業績指引,但如果以自然年計算,你們預計全年營收佔比會是多少?會是45%到55%嗎?考慮到蘋果現在是你們的重要客戶,你們預計全年營收佔比會是什麼樣的?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • On your second question, if you just look at our profile of customers, right? As we go past the third quarter and go into the fourth quarter, we're going to have flagship devices being launched again, going all the way to the holiday season. So it does become a kind of pretty -- area of strength as we go into September and December quarter relative to June. So we are expecting revenues to grow significantly, not just in mobile, but then RF front-end that goes with it. And then also in IoT and auto, we're continuing to see strength in the design win pipeline. So it's really across the board.

    關於你的第二個問題,如果你看一下我們的客戶概況,對吧?隨著第三季結束進入第四季度,我們將再次推出旗艦設備,一直持續到假期季節。因此,與6月份相比,9月和12月季度將成為我們業務的一個強勁成長點。我們預計營收將顯著成長,不僅在行動領域,而且相關的射頻前端業務也將如此。此外,在物聯網和汽車領域,我們的設計訂單也持續成長。所以,各領域都呈現成長態勢。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • And maybe to your first question, Mitch, maybe reiterating what we said before. We don't see -- I think we heard a lot in this call about discrepancy between sell-in and sell-out. We don't see that. We actually see demand outpacing supply, and the supply availability is what's really regulating the market. So we're not too concerned about that at this point.

    米奇,關於你的第一個問題,或許我們可以重申一下之前說過的話。我們並沒有看到——我想我們在這次電話會議中聽到了很多關於售罄和入庫量不匹配的問題。我們並沒有看到這種情況。實際上,我們看到的是需求超過了供應,而供應量才是真正調節市場的因素。所以目前我們並不太擔心這個問題。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • I guess, maybe if I could sneak this in. So I guess, what do you think is causing that demand surge? Is it just 5G? I'm just curious as to what's giving you guys the confidence that continues for the rest of the year.

    我想,或許我可以偷偷問一句。所以,你們覺得是什麼導致了需求激增?僅僅是5G嗎?我只是好奇是什麼讓你們對未來一年剩下的時間都充滿信心。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sorry, Mitch, can you repeat that question?

    抱歉,米奇,你能再說一次嗎?

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • So you guys are saying you're confident that demand is outstripping supply and the sell-through is fine. So I'm curious as to why you believe the demand is there and it's so significant versus prior cycles.

    所以你們的意思是,你們確信需求超過供應,而且銷售情況良好。那我很好奇,你們為什麼認為需求如此旺盛,而且比以往週期更加強勁?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Yes. Cristiano. Let me address that again. It's a couple of things, right? We have been saying, and I think that's been the key driver in QCT. We are growing on a market that grows single digit. We're growing fast in the market. It's both, I think, our expansion into 5G as well as the addressable market that is expanding for us, the Huawei, 16% example. That's one. The other one is we have seen good numbers on 5G. We -- for the calendar year, we actually -- the range, we went to the high end of the guide, which is 225 million 5G units. And our guide for in '21, it's -- I think, the upper side of the guide is in the 550 million. So the 5G transition is robust. Device ecosystem has moved on, and we see an expansion of addressable market. That is all giving confidence. And the supply chain situation, I said earlier, has been broad across the industry, is not unique to handset. We also saw the acceleration of digital transformation across the industry and the V-shape recovery, but it should get normalized towards the later part of 2021.

    是的,克里斯蒂亞諾。讓我再說一次。這涉及到兩方面,對吧?我們一直在強調,我認為這是QCT的關鍵驅動力。我們身處一個年增長率只有個位數的市場,但我們在這個市場中卻快速成長。我認為這既得益於我們向5G領域的擴張,也得益於我們潛在市場的擴大,例如華為16%的市場份額。這是一方面。另一方面,我們看到了5G的良好數據。就本年度而言,我們實際上達到了預期範圍的上限,即2.25億部5G設備。而我們對2021年的預期是──我認為──上限是5.5億部。因此,5G轉型勢頭強勁。設備生態系統也在不斷發展,我們看到潛在市場的擴張。所有這些都增強了我們的信心。而且,正如我之前提到的,供應鏈問題在整個行業中普遍存在,並非手機產業獨有。我們也看到了整個產業的數位轉型加速和 V 型復甦,但這種情況應該會在 2021 年下半年趨於正常。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • I just wanted to dig in a bit on the shortages that you flagged. Just specifically, what is the main sort of source here of the shortages? Is it more sort of 5-nanometer yield challenges you're seeing and that's sort of impacting the premium flagship segment that you operate in? Or is it more sort of P mix and what's happening with SMIC? I mean, can you maybe just talk a bit more about some of the challenges you're having here? And specifically, when do you think we come out of this shortage situation? Is it going to be the June quarter? Or do you have to wait for the second half before things get back to normal?

    我想就您提到的短缺問題深入探討。具體來說,造成短缺的主要原因是什麼?是5奈米製程的良率挑戰,影響您所處的旗艦高端市場嗎?還是產品組合以及中芯國際(SMIC)的情況?能否詳細談談您目前面臨的挑戰?您認為我們何時才能擺脫這種短缺局面?是六月的季度嗎?還是要等到下半年才能恢復正常?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Thank you for the question. Look, the simple answer is the shortage in the semiconductor industry is across the board, not only leading nodes, but also legacy nodes. You should think about that is used -- legacy process is used in a lot of automotive. It's used in all of the networking products and consumer electronics. And also you see that in a lot of the attaches, whether power management chips or RF chips. So the V-shape recovery that we've seen across the industry and all of the accelerated digitization is driving semiconductors, and we've seen that across the board.

    謝謝你的提問。簡單來說,半導體產業的短缺是普遍存在的,不僅是領先製程節點,也包括傳統製程節點。你應該想想,傳統工藝被廣泛應用於汽車、網路產品和消費性電子產品。此外,你還會在許多配件中看到它們的身影,無論是電源管理晶片還是射頻晶片。因此,我們看到整個產業呈現V型復甦,而加速的數位化進程正在推動半導體產業的發展,這一點在各個領域都得到了體現。

  • Specific to a 5 nanometer, I think we're ramping a new process. It's very consistent to our expectations. I would argue that we probably throw a ramp of a new process with our partner. This time, we ship more in the quarter early in the ramp for Snapdragon 800. And we expect to question this to normalize towards the later part of 2021 as capacity is put in place. And we see some of the demand across other sectors of the industry to catch up with supply.

    就5奈米製程而言,我認為我們正在加速推進一項新製程的量產。這與我們的預期非常吻合。我認為我們可能會與合作夥伴一起加快新製程的量產。這次,在驍龍800量產初期,我們本季的出貨量會更多。我們預計隨著產能的逐步到位,出貨量將在2021年下半年恢復正常。我們也看到,產業其他領域的需求正在逐步趕上供應。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on QTL. So I mean, you spoke a lot about some of the success you're having in QCT regarding autos, and you referenced 20 of the top 25 automakers using the cockpit platform, and you've got an 8.3 billion backlog. How do we think about the QTL opportunity here for -- specifically for autos? I mean, is there something you can share with us in terms of how royalty agreements are going here? And what sort of royalty rates we can expect for 5G, given the use cases are very different in autos going forward?

    好的。關於QTL,我想再追問一下。您剛才多次提到QCT在汽車領域的成功,並提到排名前25的汽車製造商中有20家都在使用你們的座艙平台,而且你們的訂單積壓高達83億美元。我們該如何看待QTL在汽車領域的應用前景?您能否分享一下目前在特許權使用費協議方面的情況?考慮到未來汽車領域的應用場景與傳統汽車截然不同,我們預期5G的特許權使用費率會是什麼樣的?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - Executive VP & President of Qualcomm Technology Licensing

    Alexander H. Rogers - Executive VP & President of Qualcomm Technology Licensing

  • This is Alex. Thanks for the question. We've had a long-term licensing program in automotive telematics for 3G/4G. We're actually having quite good success with our 5G licensing. Of course, not a lot of 5G units have hit the road yet. We haven't released details of the licensing program or the particular royalty structure at this point in time, but maybe some point in the future.

    我是Alex,謝謝你的提問。我們一直以來都在進行針對3G/4G車載資訊系統的長期授權計畫。實際上,我們的5G授權專案也取得了相當不錯的進展。當然,目前市面上還沒有很多5G設備。現階段,我們尚未公佈授權項目的具體細節或具體的版稅結構,但未來可能會公佈。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess, first question. With RF front-end doubling calendar '20 versus calendar '19, curious if there's a framework that you could provide in thinking about the growth trajectory into '21. Obviously, you have 2 quarters now of Apple millimeter wave in there. Would love to hear any thoughts that you could provide in terms of how to think about the growth here in '21 and beyond, if you can.

    我想問第一個問題。鑑於射頻前端產品在2020年比2019年翻了一番,我很想知道您能否提供一個框架,幫助我們思考2021年的成長軌跡。顯然,蘋果毫米波產品已經上市兩個季度了。如果您能就如何看待2021年及以後的成長提供一些見解,我將不勝感激。

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. C.J., it's Akash. At Analyst Day, we laid out kind of the financial targets for the RF front-end business. We said we want to be greater than 20% of an $18 billion market. We're very confident that we are on our way to achieving that in an accelerated fashion versus the time line we've laid out. So we'd said we'd get there in '22, and we feel like we're there -- able to get there in an accelerated fashion. So pretty happy about that.

    是的,C.J.,我是Akash。在分析師日上,我們闡述了射頻前端業務的財務目標。我們當時表示,我們希望佔180億美元市場20%以上的市佔率。我們非常有信心,我們正在以比預期更快的速度實現這一目標。我們之前說過會在2022年達成目標,現在我們感覺已經實現了──而且是以更快的速度。對此我們非常滿意。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. As my follow-up. You've had a number of questions, I guess, on the supply constraints front and EBT margins for QCT. But I guess I wanted to ask a little bit differently. In terms of higher wafer and OSAT costs, and you talked earlier about how you have longer-term contracts with set pricing. Curious how we should be thinking about perhaps higher costs earlier in the year versus later in the calendar year. And what that might mean for the trajectory of QCT margins over time. And I guess, as part of that, you showed great growth from 14% to 22% in calendar '20, considering your outlook for 5G. Should we be seeing another kind of stair-step higher for margins there?

    好的,這很有幫助。我還有一個後續問題。我想您已經收到很多關於QCT的供應限制和EBT利潤率的問題了。但我還想換個角度問。關於晶圓和OSAT成本上漲的問題,您之前提到你們簽訂了價格固定的長期合約。我想知道我們應該如何看待年初和年末成本上漲的情況,以及這會對QCT利潤率的長期走勢產生什麼影響。另外,考慮到您對5G的展望,您2020年的利潤率從14%成長到22%,這是一個顯著的成長。我們是否應該看到5G利潤率也出現類似的階梯式成長?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. C.J., from a wafer cost and fab cost perspective, really kind of not much of a story for us. It's very consistent with what we had expected before, and we feel confident that we can execute to the margin profiles that we've outlined, both kind of from an Analyst Day, long-term perspective and also guidance we are providing. Really, as you look at the second half of the year, we're looking forward to strong revenue growth across all of our businesses. And of course, the margin will benefit from that as well just as we get scale and the operating leverage benefit shows up.

    是的。 C.J.,從晶圓成本和晶圓廠成本的角度來看,對我們來說其實沒什麼特別之處。這與我們先前的預期非常一致,我們有信心能夠實現我們先前製定的利潤率目標,無論是從分析師日、長期視角或我們提供的業績指引來看,都是如此。展望下半年,我們期待所有業務都能實現強勁的營收成長。當然,隨著規模擴大和營運槓桿效應的顯現,利潤率也會隨之提高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I guess, my first question is just on QCT. So you had guided QCT down, I think, 15% for March last call. And now it's down just a little bit off of the December base. It was about as you guided. So -- and that's even despite some of the constraints that you had talked about. So the story really is that March, on the component side, is even better than what you thought it was 3 months ago, but that's despite sell-through on the licensing side being actually a little bit worse than you thought due to COVID. So I guess, the first question is, why is QCT so much better than what you saw 3 months ago? And this was the fourth quarter where these 2 businesses are sort of going in opposite direction. So I guess, I wanted to better understand why, Cristiano, why you think that's a problem as you get into the back half of the year?

    我想,我的第一個問題是關於QCT的。上次電話會議上,您曾將3月的QCT預期下調了15%。而現在,它比12月份的基數略微下降了一些,基本上符合您的預期。即便是在您之前提到的一些限制因素的影響下,情況依然如此。所以,關鍵在於,3月份組件業務的表現甚至比您三個月前的預期還要好,但這是在授權業務的銷售情況因新冠疫情的影響而略低於預期的情況下實現的。因此,我的第一個問題是,為什麼QCT比三個月前的情況好這麼多?要知道,這可是第四季度,而這兩家業務的發展方向卻截然相反。所以,我想更好地理解,克里斯蒂亞諾,為什麼您認為這會在下半年成為一個問題?

  • Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

    Akash Palkhiwala - Executive VP & CFO

  • Tim, it's Akash. One of the things we -- one of the key factors that kind of drives the 2 businesses going in different direction in this case is this just timing of purchases by large customers. And so we saw some accelerated purchases in -- going into the March quarter versus June. And so it's just depending on how the inventory strategies play out for different customers. The timing makes an impact as to when we see the improvement in our financial performance. But the underlying trend, there is no kind of specific story. It's just how things play out based on sell-through and timing of when people buy parts.

    提姆,我是阿卡什。我們——或者說,導致兩家公司業務發展方向不同的關鍵因素,就是大客戶的採購時機。我們看到,在三月的季度,採購量比六月增加。所以,這取決於不同客戶的庫存策略如何運作。採購時機會影響我們財務表現何時改善。但就根本趨勢而言,並沒有什麼具體的故事。這只是銷售情況和客戶購買零件的時機決定的。

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Look, if I can add 1 thing, just real quick. Also, maybe it's the beginning of this process. But QCT is showing also other growth drivers, like the automotive growth driver, the IoT growth drivers. So over time, as the business gets more diversified, I think you're going to have probably less correlation between the 2.

    我補充一點,就簡單說一句。或許這只是個開始。 QCT 也展現出其他成長動力,例如汽車產業和物聯網產業的成長動力。所以隨著時間的推移,業務更加多元化,我認為這兩者之間的相關性可能會降低。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • And I guess, my last question is on millimeter-wave. So I guess, the first 100 megahertz of C-band is going to clear at the end of this year. And it seems like the big U.S. carrier that was kind of driving that is going to maybe shift some of their CapEx over to build out C-band the next 2 years. I know some of the other U.S. carriers are talking about building out a millimeter-wave in 2023 and beyond. Can you just talk about the pace of adoption for millimeter-wave? Obviously, you have a lot of leverage there. Do you think it's going to be lumpy? Or do you just see it growing from here?

    最後一個問題是關於毫米波的。我想,C波段的前100兆赫將在今年底清空。而且,似乎先前推動毫米波發展的美國大型業者可能會在未來兩年內將部分資本支出轉移到C波段的建設。我知道其他一些美國業者也在討論在2023年及以後建造毫米波網路。能否談談毫米波的普及速度?顯然,您在這方面擁有很大的話語權。您認為毫米波的普及速度會比較緩慢嗎?還是會持續成長?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • This is Cristiano. Look, we are very pleased with what we're seeing millimeter-wave. As we restate what we said, I think you need millimeter-wave for the full potential of 5G, and especially as you look at some of the more advanced applications beyond smartphones. Millimeter-wave continue to be a requirement for the premium devices in the United States. We're very pleased to see that one of our large customer had brought millimeter-wave across all price points of their devices. In this quarter, we saw Germany with the auction rules starting for millimeter-wave at 26 gigahertz. And we continue to see activity indicating that China, it's likely to have millimeter-wave for 2022. So we're happy what we see. It's progressing as we plan. And as you said it correctly, millimeter-wave is probably an accelerator of our 1.5 multiplier in QCT.

    我是克里斯蒂亞諾。你看,我們對毫米波的發展非常滿意。正如我們之前所說,我認為毫米波對於充分發揮5G的潛力至關重要,尤其是在智慧型手機以外的一些更高級的應用方面。在美國,毫米波仍然是高階設備的必備條件。我們很高興看到,我們的一位大客戶已在其所有價位的設備中都採用了毫米波技術。本季度,我們看到德國啟動了26吉赫茲毫米波頻段的拍賣規則。我們也看到一些跡象表明,中國很可能在2022年就推出毫米波服務。所以我們對目前的情況感到滿意。一切都在按計劃進行。正如您所說,毫米波很可能加速了我們QCT 1.5倍的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

    今天的問答環節到此結束。莫倫科夫先生,在結束通話前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you. First of all, I want to thank folks who gave the kind words on the call. I know Cristiano feels the same way. This is actually, if I count correctly, my 50th earnings call. So I appreciate the hard work from the Qualcomm team making it a record. I look forward to seeing where the company goes. It's exceedingly well positioned. And thank you all for joining us today. Thank you.

    是的,謝謝。首先,我要感謝在電話會議上給予我鼓勵和支持的各位。我知道克里斯蒂亞諾也是一樣。如果我沒數錯的話,這其實是我參加的第50次財報電話會議。所以我非常感謝高通團隊的辛勤付出,讓這次會議創造了新的紀錄。我期待著公司未來的發展。它目前的發展勢頭非常強勁。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。