高通 (QCOM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 4, 2020. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13711766.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Qualcomm 第四季度和 2020 財年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2020 年 11 月 4 日錄製。今天通話的播放號碼是 (877) 660-6853。國際呼叫者請撥打 (201) 612-7415。播放預約號為13711766。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan。 Lopez-Hodoyan 先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括 Steve Mollenkopf 和 Akash Palkhiwala 準備好的講話。此外，克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格將參加問答環節。

You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片演示。此外，本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網絡直播，今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。

During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K once filed, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

在電話會議期間，我們將使用法規 G 中定義的非 GAAP 財務措施，您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 的相關對賬。我們還將做出前瞻性陳述，包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務結果的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最近提交的 10-K 文件，其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的重要因素。

And now, to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

現在，高通首席執行官史蒂夫·莫倫科夫 (Steve Mollenkopf) 發表評論。

Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2020 was an extraordinary year, presenting both a unique set of opportunities as well as challenges. We achieved a number of significant accomplishments, including scaling 5G devices globally with our partners while navigating the sudden onset of the global pandemic.

謝謝毛里西奧，大家下午好。 2020 財年是不平凡的一年，既帶來了一系列獨特的機遇，也帶來了挑戰。我們取得了許多重大成就，包括與我們的合作夥伴在全球範圍內擴展 5G 設備，同時應對全球大流行的突然爆發。

In March, with the safety of our employees as our top priority, we rapidly aligned our operations to a completely different work environment. We were able to limit the number of on-site essential workers while simultaneously executing on product commitments and driving our business forward. The challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the critical importance of our technology and products. I want to thank our 41,000 Qualcomm team members for their steadfast commitment to our mission of inventing and commercializing breakthrough wireless technologies.

3 月，我們以員工的安全為重中之重，迅速調整我們的運營以適應完全不同的工作環境。我們能夠限制現場基本工人的數量，同時執行產品承諾並推動我們的業務向前發展。 COVID-19 大流行帶來的挑戰凸顯了我們的技術和產品的重要性。我要感謝我們的 41,000 名 Qualcomm 團隊成員，他們堅定地致力於我們發明突破性無線技術並將其商業化的使命。

As you can see from our results, the early stages of the 5G ramp are well underway, with our strategy playing out largely as expected. We delivered Q4 non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and a record non-GAAP earnings of $1.45 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 35% and 86%, respectively, both exceeding the high end of our guidance.

正如您從我們的結果中看到的那樣，5G 斜坡的早期階段正在順利進行，我們的戰略在很大程度上符合預期。我們實現了 65 億美元的第四季度非 GAAP 收入和創紀錄的每股 1.45 美元的非 GAAP 收益，分別同比增長 35% 和 86%，均超過了我們指導的高端。

QCT revenues of $5 billion were up 38% year-over-year. It's worth noting that our Q4 QCT revenue, a near record, included only a partial quarter impact from a large U.S. OEM customer. This strong result demonstrates the breadth of our customer traction.

QCT 收入為 50 億美元，同比增長 38%。值得注意的是，我們接近創紀錄的第四季度 QCT 收入僅包括來自美國大型 OEM 客戶的部分季度影響。這一強勁的結果證明了我們對客戶的吸引力的廣度。

While our transition from a 4G leader to a 5G leader was faced with numerous challenges, our employees remain focused throughout. Since January 2016, confident in our ability to execute on the upcoming 5G ramp, we spent $30 billion to retire 25% of our shares at an average price of approximately $64.50, amplifying the benefits of the organic growth you are seeing today.

雖然我們從 4G 領導者過渡到 5G 領導者面臨著眾多挑戰，但我們的員工始終保持專注。自 2016 年 1 月以來，我們對我們在即將到來的 5G 斜坡上的執行能力充滿信心，我們斥資 300 億美元以平均約 64.50 美元的價格退市了 25% 的股份，從而擴大了您今天看到的有機增長的好處。

As you can see in our results, we have successfully commercialized our innovation leadership in our product business through a combination of higher dollar share of content, combined with significant 5G design wins with leading OEMs around the world. Our foundational 5G innovations, unmatched patent portfolio and ecosystem collaborations enable us to drive the industry forward to facilitate the rapid global adoption of 5G. Our continued innovation drives success and stability in our licensing business. All major handset OEMs are under license, and we now have over 110 5G agreements.

正如您在我們的結果中所看到的那樣，我們已經成功地將我們在產品業務中的創新領先地位商業化，這結合了更高的美元內容份額，以及與全球領先 OEM 的重大 5G 設計勝利。我們的基礎 5G 創新、無與倫比的專利組合和生態系統合作使我們能夠推動行業向前發展，以促進 5G 在全球的快速採用。我們持續的創新推動了我們許可業務的成功和穩定。所有主要手機 OEM 都已獲得許可，我們現在擁有超過 110 個 5G 協議。

In fiscal '20, our focus on innovation continued at an accelerated pace despite COVID-19 challenges. Year-over-year, invention disclosures were up over 60%, and 5G-related invention disclosures more than doubled. We continue to drive innovation advances in 5G through releases 17, 18 and beyond, which will enable the adoption of wireless technology broadly beyond smartphones and into other industries.

在 20 財年，儘管面臨 COVID-19 挑戰，我們仍繼續加快創新步伐。發明披露同比增長超過 60%，與 5G 相關的發明披露增加了一倍以上。我們將繼續通過 17、18 及更高版本推動 5G 的創新進步，這將使無線技術在智能手機之外廣泛採用並進入其他行業。

We have sustained this focus despite unwarranted legal challenges, and we now look forward to continuing our decades-long commitment to fundamental transformative innovation.

儘管面臨毫無根據的法律挑戰，我們仍然堅持這一重點，我們現在期待著繼續我們數十年來對根本性變革性創新的承諾。

Over the years, we have built strong portfolios in several key areas that converge with and enable wireless systems and applications, such as multimedia, security and artificial intelligence. Our proven ability to invent and commercialize leading technologies is the foundation of how we drive long-term value for our stockholders. The early success of our 5G rollout is a great testament to our strategy of investing well in advance of these large opportunities. 5G represents the single largest opportunity in our history, creating new opportunities to extend our leadership. This will continue to play out over many years as wireless disruption will impact many industries.

多年來，我們在多個關鍵領域建立了強大的產品組合，這些領域融合併支持無線系統和應用，例如多媒體、安全和人工智能。我們證明領先技術的發明和商業化能力是我們為股東創造長期價值的基礎。我們 5G 部署的早期成功很好地證明了我們在這些大機會之前進行投資的戰略。 5G 代表了我們歷史上最大的機遇，為擴大我們的領導地位創造了新的機會。由於無線中斷將影響許多行業，這種情況將持續多年。

As an example, several years ago, we identified RF as a unique transition opportunity to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a 5G experience. I am particularly proud of how the team has executed against this opportunity, creating a leadership position in a short period of time. In fiscal '20, we delivered $2.4 billion of RF front-end revenue, up 60% year-over-year. Qualcomm is now one of the largest RF suppliers with design wins across all our premium tier smartphone customers and with a long-term road map to continue to grow our RF leadership as 5G is adopted in other industries.

例如，幾年前，我們將 RF 確定為一個獨特的過渡機會，可以解決提供 5G 體驗的許多技術挑戰。我為團隊如何利用這個機會在短時間內創造領導地位感到特別自豪。在 20 財年，我們實現了 24 億美元的射頻前端收入，同比增長 60%。高通現在是最大的射頻供應商之一，在我們所有的高端智能手機客戶中都贏得了設計勝利，並且隨著 5G 在其他行業中的採用，我們制定了一個長期的路線圖來繼續提升我們在射頻方面的領先地位。

Our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front-end solutions, whether they support 4G, sub-6 millimeter-wave or both 5G bands, and whether they are in smartphones or other products such as embedded modules for PCs, IoT solutions or mobile hotspots. As we have in RF, we have built beachhead positions in both auto and IoT. Our scale enables us to make multiple profitable bets in areas where we expect a tailwind as each of these industry road maps adopt cellular technologies, as you can see taking place today in automotive, where we have emerged as a strategic technology partner to the automotive industry, with nearly all the major OEMs adopting our products. Next-generation 5G telematics design wins, in addition to our 3G and 4G design wins, solidify our position as a leader in connected cars. We are also extending our mobile RF front-end leadership into automotive where 100% of our next-generation 5G and a majority of our next-generation 4G telematics design wins include our automotive qualified RF front-end products. In addition, our digital cockpit solutions, now in the third generation, enable best-in-class capabilities across premium, mid- and entry tier solutions.

我們的 5G 設計勝利繼續由我們的射頻前端解決方案提供支持，無論它們支持 4G、亞 6 毫米波還是同時支持 5G 頻段，也無論它們是用於智能手機還是其他產品，例如用於 PC 的嵌入式模塊、物聯網解決方案或移動熱點。正如我們在射頻領域所做的那樣，我們在汽車和物聯網領域都建立了灘頭陣地。我們的規模使我們能夠在我們期望順風的領域進行多項有利可圖的賭注，因為這些行業路線圖中的每一個都採用蜂窩技術，正如您今天在汽車領域所看到的那樣，我們已經成為汽車行業的戰略技術合作夥伴，幾乎所有主要 OEM 都採用我們的產品。除了我們贏得 3G 和 4G 設計的勝利外，下一代 5G 遠程信息處理設計獲勝，鞏固了我們作為聯網汽車領導者的地位。我們還將我們的移動射頻前端領導地位擴展到汽車領域，我們 100% 的下一代 5G 和大部分下一代 4G 遠程信息處理設計都包括我們的汽車合格射頻前端產品。此外，我們的數字駕駛艙解決方案現已進入第三代，可在高級、中級和入門級解決方案中實現一流的功能。

Our automotive design win pipeline is now approximately $8 billion, up from almost $6.5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into meeting the long-term revenue targets we provided at our Analyst Day last November. The automotive industry is transforming at an unprecedented rate, and we are incredibly well positioned to lead the industry with a long-term opportunity to expand our dollar share of content in auto as we have done in smartphones.

我們的汽車設計贏得渠道現在約為 80 億美元，高於本財年初的近 65 億美元，這使我們能夠很好地了解我們在去年 11 月的分析師日提供的長期收入目標。汽車行業正在以前所未有的速度轉型，我們非常有能力引領行業，擁有一個長期的機會來擴大我們在汽車內容中的美元份額，就像我們在智能手機中所做的那樣。

Turning to IoT. We are extending our IP investments from across the company into our portfolio of connected and non-connected products with a broad portfolio of technologies, including connectivity, lower-power processing and security. We are also diversified across multiple product areas and industry verticals as we have nearly 13,000 customers.

轉向物聯網。我們正在將我們的 IP 投資從整個公司擴展到我們的連接和非連接產品組合，這些產品具有廣泛的技術組合，包括連接性、低功耗處理和安全性。由於我們擁有近 13,000 名客戶，因此我們還跨越多個產品領域和行業垂直領域。

In fiscal '20, we saw better-than-anticipated performance in IoT, with strong revenue growth, driven largely by demand in networking, retail, industrial, tracking and utilities verticals. Our high-performance WiFi solutions continue to drive WiFi access point toward record levels. And looking forward, our WiFi continues to evolve, our execution on WiFi 6E has put Qualcomm into a leadership position.

在 20 財年，我們看到物聯網的表現好於預期，收入增長強勁，主要受網絡、零售、工業、跟踪和公用事業垂直領域的需求推動。我們的高性能 WiFi 解決方案繼續推動 WiFi 接入點達到創紀錄水平。展望未來，我們的 WiFi 將繼續發展，我們在 WiFi 6E 上的執行使高通處於領先地位。

We have also brought wearable solutions to our smartphone OEMs as well as the broader ecosystem of consumer product companies. Our inventions, technology and road map have also enabled us to establish a leadership position in XR. With over 30 commercial devices, our Snapdragon XR Solutions that connect physical and digital spaces are the consumer and enterprise platforms of choice. We have been driving the cost and performance curve of low-power, high-performance compute since our first launch of the Snapdragon in 2007.

我們還為我們的智能手機 OEM 以及更廣泛的消費產品公司生態系統帶來了可穿戴解決方案。我們的發明、技術和路線圖也使我們能夠在 XR 中確立領導地位。憑藉 30 多種商用設備，我們連接物理和數字空間的 Snapdragon XR 解決方案是消費者和企業平台的首選。自 2007 年首次推出 Snapdragon 以來，我們一直在推動低功耗、高性能計算的成本和性能曲線。

We are also investing in next-generation infrastructure and edge compute, 2 areas today that we believe will create significant opportunities in several years. Our objective is to provide technology differentiation that will enable us to achieve a leadership position. As the cloud converges with the mobile Internet, wireless networks are transforming and becoming virtualized.

我們還投資於下一代基礎設施和邊緣計算，我們相信這兩個領域將在幾年內創造重大機遇。我們的目標是提供技術差異化，使我們能夠取得領先地位。隨著雲與移動互聯網的融合，無線網絡正在轉型並變得虛擬化。

Beyond the cost and operational benefits for service providers, virtualization is enabling new service provider models where infrastructure is intersecting with digital services, such as you have seen with Rakuten and Geo.

除了服務提供商的成本和運營優勢之外，虛擬化還支持新的服務提供商模式，其中基礎設施與數字服務相交，例如您在 Rakuten 和 Geo 中看到的。

Turning to inference, with over 10 years of AI R&D and over 1 billion AI-capable devices enabled with our technology, and fundamental assets such as low-power compute, process node leadership and signal processing expertise, we are well positioned to extend our smartphone AI leadership into growing applications, such as data centers, edge appliances and 5G infrastructure.

轉向推理，我們擁有超過 10 年的人工智能研發經驗和超過 10 億台支持人工智能的設備，以及低功耗計算、流程節點領導力和信號處理專業知識等基礎資產，我們已做好擴展智能手機的準備AI 在數據中心、邊緣設備和 5G 基礎設施等不斷增長的應用中處於領先地位。

Building on our modem and RF expertise, we recently announced our new 5G RAN platform offerings. These platforms will provide foundational technology for high-performance infrastructure and will accelerate the cellular ecosystem transition towards virtualized and interoperable radio access networks, a trend driven by 5G.

基於我們的調製解調器和射頻專業知識，我們最近宣布了新的 5G RAN 平台產品。這些平台將為高性能基礎設施提供基礎技術，並將加速蜂窩生態系統向虛擬化和可互操作無線電接入網絡的過渡，這是 5G 推動的趨勢。

Our expanded portfolio, which is scalable from macro to micro sites, will include integrated support for 5G millimeter-wave and sub-6 gigahertz spectrum across all key global bands. Together with our partners, we are helping to drive the vRAN transition with commercial products expected by calendar year 2023.

我們擴展的產品組合可從宏站點擴展到微站點，將包括對全球所有關鍵頻段的 5G 毫米波和 6 GHz 以下頻譜的集成支持。與我們的合作夥伴一起，我們正在幫助推動 vRAN 過渡，預計到 2023 年推出商業產品。

In summary, with leading technology and intellectual property, a differentiated product road map and 5G, we are well positioned for a multiyear growth opportunity.

總而言之，憑藉領先的技術和知識產權、差異化的產品路線圖和 5G，我們已做好多年增長機會的準備。

I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

我現在想把電話轉給 Akash。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We're extremely pleased to report another strong quarter to conclude a challenging year in which we remain resilient and achieved several key business milestones. Our fourth fiscal quarter non-GAAP results came in above the high end of our guidance range for revenue and EPS, driven by strong performance in both QTL and QCT. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and record EPS of $1.45, with year-over-year increases of 35% and 86%, respectively. We delivered GAAP revenues of $8.3 billion and EPS of $2.58. As a reminder, these results include the benefit related to prior periods from our recent licensing and settlement agreements with Huawei.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家下午好。我們非常高興地報告又一個強勁的季度，以結束充滿挑戰的一年，在這一年我們保持彈性並實現了幾個關鍵的業務里程碑。在 QTL 和 QCT 的強勁表現的推動下，我們第四財季的非 GAAP 業績高於我們對收入和每股收益的指導範圍的高端。我們實現了 65 億美元的非美國通用會計準則收入和 1.45 美元的創紀錄每股收益，同比分別增長 35% 和 86%。我們實現了 83 億美元的 GAAP 收入和 2.58 美元的每股收益。提醒一下，這些結果包括我們最近與華為達成的許可和和解協議中與前期相關的收益。

In the fourth quarter, we saw a year-over-year reduction of approximately 5% in global 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments relative to our prior planning assumption of a 15% reduction. The upside was driven by a strong rebound in emerging markets following the impact of COVID-19 on handset demand in previous quarters.

在第四季度，我們看到全球 3G、4G、5G 手機出貨量同比下降約 5%，而我們之前的計劃假設是下降 15%。在 COVID-19 對前幾個季度手機需求的影響之後，新興市場的強勁反彈推動了這一增長。

In QTL, we delivered revenues of $1.5 billion, and EBT margin of 73%, both above the high end of our guidance range. This upside was driven by higher global handset shipments and a favorable OEM mix.

在 QTL，我們實現了 15 億美元的收入和 73% 的 EBT 利潤率，均高於我們指導範圍的高端。這種上漲是由全球手機出貨量增加和有利的 OEM 組合推動的。

In QCT, we delivered strong results with MSM shipments of 162 million units, revenues of $5 billion, which was above the high end of our guidance range. We are pleased to report EBT margins of 20%, achieving the long-term target we had provided at our 2019 Analyst Day. QCT revenues and EBT increased 38% and 103%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis, driven by strength in handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT.

在 QCT，我們取得了強勁的業績，MSM 出貨量為 1.62 億台，收入為 50 億美元，高於我們指導範圍的高端。我們很高興地報告 EBT 利潤率為 20%，實現了我們在 2019 年分析師日提供的長期目標。受手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網實力的推動，QCT 收入和 EBT 分別同比增長 38% 和 103%。

RF front-end revenues of $852 million were higher than our prior guidance of $750 million, reflecting design traction across major handset OEMs. In automotive, we saw a sequential revenue growth of 36% to $188 million as our telematics, connectivity and digital cockpit products benefited from the industry rebound. In IoT, increased demand for connected devices due to the work-from-home environment drove 21% sequential revenue growth to $926 million. We're excited about our opportunities in this growing industry segment.

8.52 億美元的射頻前端收入高於我們之前 7.5 億美元的指引，反映了主要手機 OEM 的設計吸引力。在汽車領域，由於我們的遠程信息處理、連接和數字駕駛艙產品受益於行業反彈，我們的收入環比增長 36% 至 1.88 億美元。在物聯網中，由於在家工作環境導致對連接設備的需求增加，推動收入環比增長 21% 至 9.26 億美元。我們對我們在這個不斷發展的行業領域的機會感到興奮。

I will now summarize results for fiscal 2020. Despite the challenging economic environment due to COVID-19, we achieved non-GAAP revenues of $21.7 billion and EPS of $4.19, up 12% and 18%, respectively versus fiscal 2019. In addition, we executed on several key milestones, including the completion of long-term license agreements, acceleration of 5G and RF front-end design traction and building a platform for long-term growth in automotive and IoT.

我現在將總結 2020 財年的業績。儘管由於 COVID-19 帶來了充滿挑戰的經濟環境，我們實現了 217 億美元的非公認會計準則收入和 4.19 美元的每股收益，與 2019 財年相比分別增長了 12% 和 18%。此外，我們在幾個關鍵里程碑上執行，包括完成長期許可協議、加速 5G 和射頻前端設計牽引力以及為汽車和物聯網的長期增長建立平台。

Turning to 5G handsets. We are pleased to see that all major handset OEMs have now commercialized 5G smartphones, many of which are using our modem-to-antenna system solution, including millimeter-wave for select regions. In total, we now have over 700 5G designs announced or in development.

轉向5G手機。我們很高興看到所有主要手機 OEM 廠商現在都已將 5G 智能手機商業化，其中許多都在使用我們的調製解調器到天線系統解決方案，包括針對特定地區的毫米波。我們現在總共有 700 多種 5G 設計已宣布或正在開發中。

We are maintaining our bias towards the high end of our previous forecast of 175 million to 225 million units for calendar 2020 5G handsets. In calendar 2021, we are forecasting 450 to 550 5G handsets, a year-over-year growth of 150% at the midpoint. For our global 3G, 4G, 5G handset forecast, we are using a planning assumption of approximately 5% decline versus calendar 2019 for the December quarter and for calendar 2021. This estimate is consistent with the impact we saw in the September quarter. This implies year-over-year growth of high single digits for total handsets in calendar 2021.

我們維持對 2020 年日曆 5G 手機 1.75 億至 2.25 億部的先前預測的高端偏向。在 2021 年日曆中，我們預計 5G 手機將達到 450 至 550 部，中點同比增長 150%。對於我們的全球 3G、4G、5G 手機預測，我們使用的計劃假設是，12 月季度和 2021 年季度與 2019 年日曆相比下降約 5%。這一估計與我們在 9 月季度看到的影響一致。這意味著在 2021 年日曆中，手機總數將出現高個位數的同比增長。

I will now outline our decision to provide enhanced QCT revenue disclosures going forward. Starting with this quarter's results, we are providing revenue breakout by handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. With this change, we will not provide MSM guidance or actuals going forward. This disclosure will allow tracking of our progress for each of these categories as 5G expands our growth opportunity outside mobile. In addition, this change is consistent with the framework we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. Please refer to our Investor Relations website for additional detail and historical revenue breakout.

我現在將概述我們決定在未來提供增強的 QCT 收入披露。從本季度的業績開始，我們將提供手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網的收入突破。隨著這一變化，我們將不再提供 MSM 指導或實際數據。隨著 5G 將我們的增長機會擴展到移動設備之外，這一披露將允許我們跟踪我們在每個類別中的進展。此外，這一變化與我們在 2019 年分析師日概述的框架一致。請參閱我們的投資者關係網站了解更多詳情和歷史收入明細。

Turning to our first fiscal quarter guidance. We are forecasting strong earnings with revenues of $7.8 billion to $8.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 to $2.15, a year-over-year increase of 62% and 107%, respectively, at the midpoint. In QTL, we are estimating revenues of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, and EBIT margin of 74% to 78%, reflecting a sequential increase due to flagship handset launches and holiday seasonality.

轉向我們的第一財季指引。我們預測收入強勁，收入為 78 億美元至 86 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.95 美元至 2.15 美元，中點分別同比增長 62% 和 107%。在 QTL，我們預計收入為 16 億美元至 18 億美元，息稅前利潤率為 74% 至 78%，反映出由於旗艦手機的推出和假日季節性因素的連續增長。

In QCT, we estimate revenues of $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion, up 80% year-over-year at the midpoint, driven by growth across handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. We expect QCT EBT margins to be between 25% and 27%, reflecting an EBT increase of $1.2 billion versus the year ago period.

在 QCT，我們估計收入為 62 億至 68 億美元，中點同比增長 80%，受手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網增長的推動。我們預計 QCT EBT 利潤率將在 25% 至 27% 之間，反映出 EBT 與去年同期相比增加了 12 億美元。

Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up approximately 2% sequentially.

最後，我們預計非美國通用會計準則的研發和 SG&A 費用將環比增長約 2%。

Looking forward to the second fiscal quarter. Based on the handset assumptions I previously outlined, and the seasonal decline after the holidays, we estimate QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. In QCT, following the launch of a flagship 5G handset, we now expect second quarter seasonality to be consistent with QTL and global handset shipments. As a reminder, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses are typically higher in the second fiscal quarter as it includes the normal calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs.

期待第二財季。根據我之前概述的手機假設以及假期後的季節性下降，我們估計 QTL 收入將在 13 億美元至 15 億美元之間。在 QCT，隨著旗艦 5G 手機的推出，我們現在預計第二季度的季節性將與 QTL 和全球手機出貨量保持一致。提醒一下，非 GAAP 合併的研發和 SG&A 費用通常在第二財季更高，因為它包括某些與員工相關的成本的正常日曆年重置。

For the second half of fiscal 2021, we expect the quarterly profile for both our QTL and QCT businesses to be consistent with the seasonality of the global handset shipments. Lastly, for each quarter in fiscal 2021, we are forecasting net interest expense of approximately $125 million, weighted average shares outstanding of 1.15 billion and a non-GAAP annual effective tax rate of 14%.

對於 2021 財年下半年，我們預計 QTL 和 QCT 業務的季度概況將與全球手機出貨量的季節性保持一致。最後，對於 2021 財年的每個季度，我們預測淨利息支出約為 1.25 億美元，加權平均流通股數為 11.5 億股，非公認會計準則年度有效稅率為 14%。

Before I finish my prepared remarks, I want to thank our employees for their contribution throughout this unprecedented year. In fiscal 2021, we are focused on delivering revenue growth and operating leverage, in line with the financial targets we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. We remain focused on executing on our 5G road map and commercializing breakthrough technologies that will drive growth for many years. Thank you.

在結束我準備好的發言之前，我要感謝我們的員工在這一前所未有的一年中所做的貢獻。在 2021 財年，我們專注於實現收入增長和運營槓桿，這與我們在 2019 年分析師日概述的財務目標一致。我們仍然專注於執行我們的 5G 路線圖並將突破性技術商業化，這些技術將推動多年的增長。謝謝你。

I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.

我現在將電話轉回毛里西奧。

Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.

謝謝你，阿卡什。接線員，我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

Just a question on the EBT margins. Very strong implied guidance for the seasonally strong Q4, but you also highlighted some investment for growth in new areas. How should we think just about trends in terms of margins for QTL and QCT as you harvest 5G investments?

只是關於 EBT 利潤的問題。對季節性強勁的第四季度的隱含指導非常強，但您也強調了一些新領域增長的投資。當您收穫 5G 投資時，我們應該如何考慮 QTL 和 QCT 的利潤率趨勢？

And in QTL, perhaps you lower legal expenses and maybe see some higher margins there?

在 QTL 中，也許您會降低法律費用，並且可能會看到更高的利潤？

Mike, this is Akash. Really, from a margin perspective, we're extremely happy, first of all, to deliver the 20% margin in QCT in the September quarter. I mean that's -- we've guided a midpoint of 18%, and we're happy to see us get to that target a quarter sooner than we had anticipated.

邁克，這是阿卡什。真的，從利潤率的角度來看，我們非常高興，首先，在 9 月季度的 QCT 中實現了 20% 的利潤率。我的意思是——我們已經指導了 18% 的中點，我們很高興看到我們比我們預期的早四分之一達到這個目標。

As you saw, we are guiding strength going into the December quarter as well with a midpoint that's at 26% in QCT.

正如你所看到的，我們也在引導進入 12 月季度的力量，QCT 的中點為 26%。

As we go forward, one of the things that you have to keep in mind is just the seasonality of the businesses. If -- let me address QTL and then QCT again.

在我們前進的過程中，您必須牢記的一件事就是業務的季節性。如果——讓我先講 QTL，然後再講 QCT。

For QTL, seasonally strong quarter in December, given kind of the handset launches that happen and then overall holiday impact. As you go beyond that, we've provided a guidance for the March quarter, so that will give you a second data point. And then really, between those data points and our actuals for September, you'll be able to forecast kind of the rest of the year. From a margin perspective, we had given guidance at Analyst Day and that contemplated how our financials would play out in QTL. So it's very consistent with that. So we don't really have an update relative to that guidance point.

對於 QTL，12 月的季節性強勁季度，考慮到手機發布的種類以及整體假期的影響。當您超出此範圍時，我們為 3 月季度提供了指導，因此這將為您提供第二個數據點。然後真的，在這些數據點和我們 9 月份的實際數據之間，你將能夠預測今年剩下的時間。從利潤率的角度來看，我們在分析師日給出了指導，並考慮了我們的財務狀況將如何在 QTL 中發揮作用。所以這與它非常一致。因此，我們實際上並沒有與該指導點相關的更新。

For QCT, as you think about the December quarter guidance, again, a very strong quarter seasonally, now with the launch of a flagship 5G handset with our chip in it, it drives our December quarter is very strong. The seasonality of the business changes though with this launch, and what happens is when you look at -- it's different than the last couple of years. You almost have to go back 3 or 4 years, where, typically, we saw a decline of 15% in revenues between first quarter and second quarter in QCT, just based on seasonality. And so we'll be reconciled more to that seasonality going forward.

對於 QCT，當您考慮 12 月季度的指導時，又是一個非常強勁的季度季度，現在隨著帶有我們芯片的旗艦 5G 手機的推出，它推動了我們的 12 月季度非常強勁。儘管隨著這次發布，業務的季節性發生了變化，當你看到時會發生什麼 - 它與過去幾年不同。您幾乎必須回到 3 或 4 年前，通常情況下，我們看到 QCT 第一季度和第二季度之間的收入下降了 15%，僅基於季節性。因此，我們將更加適應未來的季節性。

From a margin perspective, strong margin in QCT in first quarter, and then really the margin will change based on the profile of the revenue as we move forward.

從利潤率的角度來看，第一季度 QCT 的利潤率很高，然後隨著我們的發展，利潤率將根據收入狀況而變化。

Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Congrats on the results, strong results here. I just wanted to start off, I have a couple of questions. I wanted to start off on the RF content, which you -- on smartphones, which you clearly outlined is doing better than you expected. Just based on the visibility you have into the pipeline in fiscal '21, how should we think about either meeting or even exceeding the targets you outlined for RF on smartphone? I think it was about $3.5 billion of revenue that you outlined at the Analyst Day. If you can just share your thoughts on that. And I have a follow-up.

祝賀結果，這裡的結果很好。我只是想開始，我有幾個問題。我想從您明確概述的智能手機上的射頻內容開始，其效果比您預期的要好。僅基於您對 21 財年管道的可見性，我們應該如何考慮達到甚至超過您為智能手機上的 RF 概述的目標？我認為您在分析師日概述的收入約為 35 億美元。如果你能分享你的想法。我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Samik, it's Akash again. So I think, from a guidance perspective, for RF front-end, as you'll recall at Analyst Day, we said we expect to be more than 20% share in an $18 billion market. And that target was really for fiscal '22. We're very happy with the way our RF front-end business has played out. We're seeing a lot of strength, not just in the quarter we reported and the forward quarter, but just really in the long-term design win pipeline across the board. So we're very optimistic that we'll be able to get to our target sooner. But really, beyond that, we are not updating kind of longer-term guidance at this point.

是的。薩米克，又是阿卡什。所以我認為，從指導的角度來看，對於 RF 前端，正如您在分析師日所記得的那樣，我們說我們預計在 180 億美元的市場中佔有超過 20% 的份額。這個目標實際上是針對 22 財年的。我們對射頻前端業務的發展方式感到非常滿意。我們看到了很大的力量，不僅在我們報告的季度和前一個季度，而且在長期的設計勝利管道中。所以我們非常樂觀，我們將能夠更快地達到我們的目標。但實際上，除此之外，我們目前還沒有更新長期指導。

Samik, this is Cristiano. Just one quick comment for you. The -- as we increase the number of designs to 680, the trend continues. We see 5G RF front-end attached to some of those designs. So we feel pretty good about the pipeline, continue to grow that business.

薩米克，這是克里斯蒂亞諾。只需給你一個快速評論。 - 隨著我們將設計數量增加到 680 種，這種趨勢仍在繼續。我們看到其中一些設計附加了 5G 射頻前端。所以我們對管道感覺很好，繼續發展這項業務。

Got it. And if I could just follow-up. Obviously, there's been a lot of changes in the environment here with the current restrictions on Huawei smartphone business or kind of the restrictions impacting that. How should I think about how that is impacting results right now? Is it proving, in your kind of view, to be a headwind to industry volumes? Or kind of are competitors to Huawei ordering more that's kind of helping results? How should I think about the impact?

知道了。如果我可以跟進。顯然，由於當前對華為智能手機業務的限製或影響該業務的某種限制，這裡的環境發生了很多變化。我現在應該如何考慮這對結果有何影響？在您看來，這是否會成為行業銷量的逆風？還是華為的競爭對手訂購了更多的產品？我應該如何看待影響？

Thanks for your question, Samik. This is Cristiano. So as you know, right now, we -- as we don't have a license to sell products to Huawei, we're not selling to Huawei. The way you should think about this, and consistent with what we have said in the last earnings call, the Huawei opportunity creates an expansion of addressable market for QCT. We feel pretty hedged in our position, given our very high traction with all the premium and high-tier OEMs. And whether that, in the long run, it's an opportunity with Huawei in the event that we receive a license, or if an opportunity for our customers, we actually see that as a net positive and an expansion of TAM for QCT. And we expect that to play out as we look at demand in the handset towards 2021.

謝謝你的問題，薩米克。這是克里斯蒂亞諾。如你所知，現在，我們——因為我們沒有向華為銷售產品的許可證，所以我們不向華為銷售。您應該考慮這一點，並且與我們在上次財報電話會議中所說的一致，華為的機會為 QCT 創造了潛在市場的擴張。鑑於我們對所有高端和高端原始設備製造商的吸引力非常大，我們覺得自己的位置相當對沖。無論從長遠來看，如果我們獲得許可證，這對華為來說是一個機會，或者如果我們的客戶有機會，我們實際上認為這是一個淨積極因素和 TAM 對 QCT 的擴展。我們預計，隨著我們著眼於 2021 年手機的需求，這將發揮作用。

Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

Akash, I guess, maybe this question is for you and Cristiano, partly. I really appreciate the additional disclosures in QTL -- or in QCT rather. Maybe you could talk about, given the magnitude of the upside to the outlook for the December quarter, just help us a little bit to break down that upside in the chip business by maybe units and then also RF versus maybe core ASPs and units in the modem business. If you could just sort of give us some help there, just given the magnitude of the upside and the change in the disclosures just so we can all put models, at least for this first quarter out of the gate.

阿卡什，我猜，也許這個問題部分是給你和克里斯蒂亞諾的。我真的很感謝 QTL 中的額外披露——或者更確切地說是 QCT。也許你可以談談，鑑於 12 月季度前景的上升幅度，只是幫助我們通過可能的單位以及 RF 與核心 ASP 和單位來細分芯片業務的上行空間。現代業務。如果你能給我們一些幫助，只要考慮到上行的幅度和披露的變化，這樣我們就可以把模型放在外面，至少在第一季度是這樣。

Yes. Matt, so let me just kind of quickly run through the disclosure change. What we really wanted to do was, over the last couple of years, our business has evolved a bit. And so we're seeing a different set of drivers for revenue growth than units. And so it's driven by, obviously, 4G to 5G transition, driving more content, RF front-end and then automotive and IoT playing a key role in our growth as well. And so the goal with it was to give data points that will allow the investors to track our progress in this area. And then again, it's very consistent with how we outlined our business at the Analyst Day, and then that's kind of the core thought process behind it.

是的。馬特，所以讓我快速瀏覽一下披露變更。我們真正想做的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們的業務有所發展。因此，我們看到的收入增長驅動因素與單位不同。因此，很明顯，它是由 4G 到 5G 的過渡推動的，推動了更多的內容、RF 前端以及汽車和物聯網在我們的增長中也發揮了關鍵作用。因此，它的目標是提供數據點，讓投資者能夠跟踪我們在這一領域的進展。再說一次，這與我們在分析師日概述我們的業務的方式非常一致，這就是它背後的核心思維過程。

As you see in the September quarter, we've given a disclosure on breakdown. A lot of strength across each of those areas. You've seen a strong growth in IoT, which was driven by a demand for connected devices. And in the home, and as kind of the work-from-home environment permeates, there's just an increasing need for connectivity. And then we also saw a rebound on the auto side that drove significant strength.

正如您在 9 月季度看到的那樣，我們已經披露了細分信息。在這些領域中的每一個領域都有很大的優勢。您已經看到物聯網的強勁增長，這是由對連接設備的需求推動的。在家裡，隨著在家工作環境的滲透，對連接的需求越來越大。然後我們還看到了汽車方面的反彈，推動了強勁的增長。

As we look forward, all of those trends are holding for us. So we expect kind of similar strength going into next quarter for each of those areas. We're obviously not providing a breakdown of our forecast. We're providing it at the total QCT level. But the underlying strength, really, all those drivers remain looking forward.

展望未來，所有這些趨勢都為我們所用。因此，我們預計下個季度每個領域都會出現類似的實力。我們顯然沒有提供我們預測的細目。我們在整個 QCT 級別提供它。但實際上，所有這些驅動因素的潛在力量仍在向前發展。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。

I guess, first question was with regard to QTL. And I get the results for the September quarter and the guidance for the December quarter is above what the sort of normal levels that you've referred to before. So -- and I guess what you're talking about for the March quarter is as well. Is this sort of a new normal level for the QTL business going forward? And could you explain why that's the case and the permanence of this level of revenue?

我想，第一個問題是關於 QTL 的。我得到了 9 月季度的結果，12 月季度的指導高於你之前提到的那種正常水平。所以 - 我猜你在談論的三月季度也是如此。這是 QTL 業務未來發展的新常態嗎？你能解釋一下為什麼會出現這種情況以及這種收入水平的持久性嗎？

Sure. So Chris, as you'll recall, in the March quarter, the market was down approximately 21% because of the impact of COVID, and June quarter was 20%. Our forecast, our planning assumption going into the September quarter, was down 15%. And really, what happened is we saw a rebound, especially in emerging markets. We're following a couple quarters of lower demand, because of COVID, the demand went up, and we ended the quarter down approximately 5%. So that was kind of the key driver for our performance in the September quarter. And in addition, we saw a stronger OEM mix that helped QTL a bit as well. So that's kind of the data point for our results for the September quarter at $1.5 billion.

當然。所以克里斯，你會記得，在 3 月季度，由於 COVID 的影響，市場下跌了約 21%，而 6 月季度為 20%。我們的預測，即我們進入 9 月季度的計劃假設，下降了 15%。實際上，我們看到了反彈，尤其是在新興市場。由於 COVID 的原因，我們正在關注需求下降的幾個季度，需求上升，我們在本季度結束時下降了約 5%。因此，這是我們在 9 月季度表現的關鍵驅動因素。此外，我們看到更強大的 OEM 組合也對 QTL 有所幫助。這就是我們 9 月季度業績 15 億美元的數據點。

Our forward guidance of $1.7 billion midpoint for QTL is really kind of just projecting that same market impact, the 5% market impact that we saw year-over-year in the September quarter, projecting it forward into the December quarter and then into the March quarter, and that's the basis for the numbers we provided.

我們對 QTL 的 17 億美元中點的前瞻性指導實際上只是在預測相同的市場影響，即我們在 9 月季度看到的同比 5% 的市場影響，將其預測到 12 月季度然後到 3 月季度，這是我們提供的數字的基礎。

As you think about kind of the full year forecast for it, for QTL, using the September quarter number, along with the December quarter and the March quarter guidance, that's a good way to project the year.

當您考慮它的全年預測時，對於 QTL，使用 9 月季度數字以及 12 月季度和 3 月季度指導，這是預測年度的好方法。

Got it. A follow-up question is on the RF front-end business. And if you could provide some color now. I know that millimeter-wave is an important part of that business for you. It's something you've talked about a lot. Could you help us to quantify how much millimeter-wave has been contributing to the RF front-end business? Sort of what's the content increase that you're anticipating for millimeter-wave? And then now that we've seen millimeter-wave kind of do what you said in terms of being a must-have on flagship handsets, what's the potential for that proliferating around the world and becoming a must-have in other geographies?

知道了。一個後續問題是關於射頻前端業務。如果你現在可以提供一些顏色。我知道毫米波對您來說是該業務的重要組成部分。這是你經常談論的事情。您能否幫助我們量化毫米波對射頻前端業務的貢獻？您對毫米波的預期內容增加是多少？既然我們已經看到毫米波就像你所說的那樣，成為旗艦手機的必備品，那麼它在全球範圍內擴散並成為其他地區必備品的潛力是什麼？

Yes. So Chris, I'll take the first part of the question, and then Cristiano can follow-up. Just from a breakdown of technologies across our RF front-end revenue base, we're obviously not providing that. But you should not really think of our revenue being driven by millimeter-wave. We have a broad portfolio of technologies, 4G, 5G sub-6 and 5G millimeter wave. And our design traction reflects the strength of our portfolio, so it's really across all those technologies.

是的。所以克里斯，我會回答問題的第一部分，然後克里斯蒂亞諾可以跟進。僅從我們射頻前端收入基礎的技術細分來看，我們顯然沒有提供這一點。但是你不應該真的認為我們的收入是由毫米波驅動的。我們擁有廣泛的技術組合，包括 4G、5G sub-6 和 5G 毫米波。我們的設計吸引力反映了我們產品組合的實力，因此它確實涵蓋了所有這些技術。

Yes. So this is Cristiano. So first, I want to just build on what Akash just said. We're even starting to win some 4G content in RF front-end as well and especially some of the sub-6 frequency starts to get converted into 5G. So we're excited about, I think, how broad of -- and diverse is our RF front-end businesses. Specifically at the millimeter wave, it does add a lot more content. So it's probably what drive a little higher on our average 1.5 multiplier, if you remember. And where we're happy about it is significant data points that continue to show the potential for growth. In addition of being a requirement for markets such as United States, Japan, DOCOMO launched millimeter-wave services back in September. Korea, still tracking to launch service. And we have now 130 operators globally investing in millimeter-wave. And especially, as we see price point of devices, as you saw in the United States, becoming a very reasonable with millimeter-wave, that opportunity for attach is going to be a significant tailwind for our business.

是的。這就是克里斯蒂亞諾。所以首先，我想在 Akash 剛才所說的基礎上再接再厲。我們甚至開始在射頻前端贏得一些 4G 內容，尤其是一些低於 6 的頻率開始轉換為 5G。因此，我認為，我們對我們的射頻前端業務的廣泛性和多樣性感到興奮。特別是在毫米波，它確實增加了更多的內容。因此，如果您還記得的話，這可能是我們平均 1.5 乘數更高的原因。我們對此感到高興的是重要的數據點，這些數據點繼續顯示出增長的潛力。除了作為美國、日本等市場的要求外，DOCOMO 早在 9 月就推出了毫米波服務。韓國，仍在跟踪推出服務。我們現在在全球有 130 家運營商投資毫米波。特別是，當我們看到設備的價格點，正如你在美國看到的那樣，毫米波變得非常合理，這種附加機會將對我們的業務產生重大影響。

And then maybe just to add a quick comment. I think for millimeter-wave, really, what has happened is we outlined a vision a year ago of how the technology deployment will play out, and really, everything is happening consistent with what we had outlined. And so we're very happy to see that.

然後也許只是添加一個快速評論。我認為對於毫米波，實際上，我們在一年前概述了技術部署將如何發揮作用的願景，而且實際上，一切都在按照我們所概述的進行。所以我們很高興看到這一點。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I think a question I get the most is just the sustainability of handset builds. Obviously, it's been very robust. It seems like there's some investment to try to take share away from Huawei, and yet, Huawei still has inventory still shipping. So can you just generally characterize that handset environment and the inventory environment that you're in heading into the strongest part of the year?

我認為我得到最多的一個問題就是手機製造的可持續性。顯然，它非常健壯。似乎有一些投資試圖從華為手中奪走份額，但華為仍有庫存仍在發貨。那麼，您能否大致描述一下您將進入今年最強勁時期的手機環境和庫存環境？

Yes. Hi, this is Akash. So we're seeing some minor elevated demand across certain OEMs, given the uncertainty of the OEM mix, especially in China and how things play out, so that's already contemplated in our forecast.

是的。嗨，我是阿卡什。因此，鑑於 OEM 組合的不確定性，尤其是在中國以及情況如何發展，我們看到某些 OEM 的需求略有上升，因此我們的預測已經考慮到了這一點。

As we look forward -- and in our forward commentary as well. As we look forward, we expect some uncertainty over the next few months. But really, when you step back from that and just look at overall design win pipeline and customer traction, it's really very consistent with the comment Cristiano made earlier, where our technologies and our portfolio are really set up to take benefit from it, whether it's Huawei, who -- if we're allowed to ship to them, or if other OEMs pick up that share.

正如我們期待的那樣 - 在我們的前瞻性評論中也是如此。展望未來，我們預計未來幾個月會出現一些不確定性。但實際上，當你退後一步，只看整體設計贏得管道和客戶牽引力時，它真的與克里斯蒂亞諾之前發表的評論非常一致，我們的技術和我們的產品組合真正設置為從中受益，無論是華為，誰——如果我們被允許向他們發貨，或者其他 OEM 獲得該份額。

Okay. Great. And then are you guys constrained at all on foundry capacity? Are there any supply constraints that we should be aware of?

好的。偉大的。然後你們的代工能力是否受到限制？是否有任何我們應該注意的供應限制？

Joe, this is Cristiano. We're very diversified from a supply standpoint. I think we're probably one of the few companies that have leading now the supply diversity. We are all seeing demand upside. We're driving a lot of our supply. And I will say that probably, you're going to see some tightness of supply as we have this peak of demand, but we feel good about how we look about the year in 2021.

喬，這是克里斯蒂亞諾。從供應的角度來看，我們非常多元化。我認為我們可能是目前領先供應多元化的少數公司之一。我們都看到需求上升。我們正在推動大量供應。我會說，由於我們有這個需求高峰，您可能會看到供應緊張，但我們對 2021 年的看法感覺良好。

Next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

I just want to follow-up on Joe's question. Just kind of curious, as you look at the builds you're seeing today and then kind of the visibility on models. I think people have looked at some of the stats from the China market saying it's already 60% 5G. Kind of just curious, with these builds, the strong builds you're seeing now, if you had any perspective where we're at in that adoption curve of 5G already? And then kind of just trying to parse it together, you're not getting MSM guidance anymore, but I mean, are we already pretty close to that kind of run rate for 5G on a quarterly basis?

我只想跟進喬的問題。有點好奇，當您查看您今天看到的構建以及模型的可見性時。我認為人們已經查看了中國市場的一些統計數據，說它已經 60% 是 5G。有點好奇，通過這些構建，您現在看到的強大構建，如果您對我們在 5G 的採用曲線中所處的位置有任何看法嗎？然後只是嘗試將其解析在一起，您不再獲得 MSM 指導，但我的意思是，我們是否已經非常接近 5G 的季度運行率？

Blayne, this is Cristiano. When you think about China market, we're very happy because the price points of 5G became very aggressive, and we saw that even starting in the last quarter, and that's driving probably more than 50% of all the new activations and all of the new phone launches with 5G.

布萊恩，這是克里斯蒂亞諾。當你想到中國市場時，我們非常高興，因為 5G 的價格點變得非常激進，我們甚至在上個季度就看到了這一點，這可能推動了 50% 以上的新激活和所有新手機推出 5G。

We like that position. As Akash outlined in the prior question, we're very well hedged regardless of who wins in the marketplace. And we expect the China-accelerated transition of 5G with lower price points to have an impact in how we're going to see this unfolding in emerging markets as China provide a lot of the handsets for emerging markets as well.

我們喜歡那個位置。正如 Akash 在上一個問題中概述的那樣，無論誰在市場上獲勝，我們都能很好地對沖。我們預計，隨著中國也為新興市場提供大量手機，中國加速向較低價格點的 5G 過渡將對我們如何看待新興市場的發展產生影響。

And then also just to add, that we are providing an additional data point on the 5G side on the total size of the market for 2021. We are forecasting a range of 450 million to 550 million devices, which really, when you look at a year-over-year basis, that's 150% growth. So extremely strong growth going into it. And as we exit the calendar year 2020, we're seeing that velocity going into '21.

然後還要補充一點，我們在 5G 方面提供了一個關於 2021 年市場總規模的額外數據點。我們預測 4.5 億到 5.5 億台設備，當你看到同比增長 150%。如此強勁的增長進入了它。隨著我們退出 2020 日曆年，我們看到這種速度將進入 21 年。

And then a follow-up. Just really appreciate the segment detail. When you look at IoT, you answered why it's spiking up so much. I'd be curious to know a little bit more about the history of that segment. It looks like you kind of model it back to the details you gave, it's been running around $700 million a quarter. So I'm just trying to put in perspective the strength you're seeing here, and how to think about it going forward. Obviously, everybody is seeing a big work-from-home push. But as you move forward, does some of that roll off? Or has this business been at higher levels prior? Just any context would be great.

然後是後續行動。真的很欣賞細分的細節。當您查看物聯網時，您回答了為什麼它會如此飆升。我很想知道更多關於那個部分的歷史。看起來你有點模仿你給出的細節，它每季度運行大約 7 億美元。所以我只是想看看你在這裡看到的力量，以及如何看待它的未來。顯然，每個人都看到了在家工作的巨大推動力。但是當你前進時，其中一些會滾落嗎？或者這個業務之前是否處於更高的水平？任何上下文都會很棒。

Yes. So if you look at the disclosure we have on our website, we're providing detail for fiscal '19 on an annual basis and '20 on a quarterly basis. And so I think there's enough data there for you to kind of come up with some trends on the business.

是的。因此，如果您查看我們網站上的披露信息，我們將每年提供 '19 財年的詳細信息，每季度提供 '20 財年的詳細信息。所以我認為那裡有足夠的數據讓你想出一些關於業務的趨勢。

And then maybe I'll go back to our Analyst Day commentary last year, we outlined growth and a vision forecast for the IoT segment. And so you could think about it the same way, where you'll be able to look at how the SAM grows and the parts of that SAM that we are interested in and how that grows, and that would be a good way of thinking about the long-term opportunity.

然後也許我會回到我們去年的分析師日評論，我們概述了物聯網領域的增長和願景預測。所以你可以用同樣的方式思考它，你將能夠看到 SAM 是如何生長的，以及我們感興趣的 SAM 的部分以及它是如何生長的，這將是一個很好的思考方式長期機會。

Blayne, it's Cristiano. If I could add some qualitative comments. As you pointed out, there is this enterprise transformation of the home. It's driving a lot of connectivity. You also have an accelerated digital transformation. But most importantly, you have 5G going to other industries. So this business and what it is today is probably a good proxy of a growth business for us as we realize this vision of 5G and other industries going forward.

布萊恩，是克里斯蒂亞諾。如果我可以添加一些定性評論。正如您所指出的，有這種家庭的企業轉型。它推動了很多連接。您還可以加速數字化轉型。但最重要的是，您可以將 5G 用於其他行業。因此，隨著我們實現 5G 和其他行業的願景，這項業務以及今天的業務可能是我們業務增長的良好代表。

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

Congrats on the strong results. The first one is -- I think everybody appreciates the end market splits that you're going to have. But before the MSMs and the revenue per MSMs disappear for good, it's great to see that you've gotten it back above $30 on the revenue per MSM side.

恭喜取得了不錯的成績。第一個是 - 我認為每個人都欣賞你將要擁有的終端市場分裂。但在 MSM 和每個 MSM 的收入永遠消失之前，很高興看到您在每個 MSM 方面的收入已經恢復到 30 美元以上。

I just wanted to dive into, looking forward, does the 1.5x content framework continue? Or is that $30 largely capturing it? And really, I guess, what I'm getting at is if you're going to have 150% increase in your 5G units next year, is that going to be a tailwind on both the unit and the revenue per MSM side? Or more so one than the other?

我只是想深入研究一下，期待 1.5x 內容框架是否會繼續？還是這 30 美元在很大程度上佔據了它？真的，我想，我的意思是，如果明年你的 5G 設備數量增加 150%，這對單位和每個 MSM 方面的收入是否都是有利的？或者一個比另一個更重要？

Well, from a unit perspective, Ross, it's really kind of the 4G margin market transitioning over to 5G, right? So it's less of a unit growth story. It's really a transition between technologies. And then within 5G, the framework we still think applies. So there is a benefit on the core chipset side and then there's the incremental RF opportunity on top of it.

好吧，從單位的角度來看，羅斯，這真的是 4G 保證金市場向 5G 過渡，對吧？所以這不是一個單位增長的故事。這實際上是技術之間的過渡。然後在 5G 中，我們認為仍然適用的框架。所以在核心芯片組方面有一個好處，然後在它之上還有增加的射頻機會。

Great. I guess for my follow-up, I want to switch over to the margin side of things. You talked, Akash, a little bit about the OpEx for the fourth quarter or the calendar fourth quarter, then the calendar first quarter. You said it'd go up a little bit. Now that you've hit or exceeded your targets, especially on the QCT side for EBT. Any sort of idea of how we should think for fiscal '21 or calendar '21 about the general trends on the OpEx side of the equation?

偉大的。我想對於我的後續行動，我想切換到事情的邊緣。 Akash，您談到了第四季度的運營支出或日曆第四季度，然後是日曆第一季度。你說會漲一點。現在您已經達到或超過了目標，尤其是在 EBT 的 QCT 方面。關於我們應該如何看待 21 財年或 21 日曆關於等式運營支出方面的總體趨勢的任何想法？

Yes. So I mean, first of all, we're very happy to see -- as revenue has grown, we're seeing the leverage -- operating margin leverage show up in our numbers, so happy to see that in the fourth quarter and the first quarter.

是的。所以我的意思是，首先，我們很高興看到——隨著收入的增長，我們看到了槓桿——營業利潤率槓桿出現在我們的數字中，很高興看到第四季度和第一季度。

As we look forward, I think you have data points for both of those quarters, first quarter, and then we gave a soft guidance for the following quarter. It's very reasonable to use those 2 data points to project forward for the OpEx for the year.

正如我們所期待的那樣，我認為你有這兩個季度的數據點，第一季度，然後我們給出了下一季度的軟指導。使用這兩個數據點來預測當年的 OpEx 是非常合理的。

The other thing I would say is just as we look forward, as Steve outlined in his prepared remarks, there are a lot of opportunities we have for areas for growth in the long term, all organic opportunities. And so we are selectively investing in a few of those consistent with what we said at Analyst Day.

我要說的另一件事是，正如史蒂夫在他準備好的講話中所概述的那樣，正如我們期待的那樣，我們在長期增長的領域有很多機會，所有有機機會。因此，我們有選擇地投資於其中一些與我們在分析師日所說的一致的。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

For my first one, I wanted to dig a little bit into chipset gross margins. I know you don't like actually provide them. But I know last quarter, you gave us a little bit of qualitative color on what to expect. Gross margins in the current quarter and chips were supposed to come down a little because of mix, and I think they did. In December quarter, is it fair to say that your guidance contemplates gross margins at least flattish sequentially even with the slug of revenue coming in and the mix changing somewhat? Is that an accurate statement?

對於我的第一個，我想稍微了解一下芯片組的毛利率。我知道你不喜歡實際提供它們。但我知道上個季度，你給了我們一些關於預期的定性色彩。由於混合，本季度的毛利率和籌碼應該會有所下降，我認為確實如此。在 12 月季度，是否可以公平地說，您的指導考慮到毛利率至少會連續持平，即使收入激增並且組合有所變化？這是一個準確的說法嗎？

Yes, Stacy. From a gross margin perspective, I mean there really isn't something that we want to highlight on that topic. I think what we have is very consistent trend, and we feel like that's something that holds going forward.

是的，斯泰西。從毛利率的角度來看，我的意思是我們真的不想在這個話題上強調什麼。我認為我們所擁有的是非常一致的趨勢，我們覺得這是未來的趨勢。

Got it. For my follow-up, I want to ask about the trajectory of the RF business. Obviously, you had a bunch of RF this quarter. Does all that RF revenue ship together with the rest of the platform? Or does some of that RF revenue like have to get shipped before and go into modules. So I guess what I'm asking is, is some of the RF that you shipped in Q4 actually going into some of the chip platforms that you're booking revenue for in Q1? Or are they all coincident with each other?

知道了。對於我的後續，我想問一下射頻業務的軌跡。顯然，本季度你有一堆射頻。所有這些 RF 收入是否與平台的其他部分一起提供？或者是否有一些 RF 收入必須提前發貨並進入模塊。所以我想我要問的是，你們在第四季度發貨的一些射頻是否真的進入了你們在第一季度預定收入的一些芯片平台？還是它們都彼此重合？

Yes. So just broadly, as you think about our RF business, there's a combination of factors, right? There are times when we make the module ourselves and those modules would, timing-wise, would be aligned with the chipset. If we are shipping components that go into someone else's module, there would be a shift in timing related to it. But really, all those are really timing comments, the fundamental trajectory remains the same.

是的。因此，從廣義上講，當您考慮我們的射頻業務時，有多種因素，對嗎？有時我們自己製作模塊，而這些模塊會在時序方面與芯片組對齊。如果我們正在運送進入其他人模塊的組件，那麼與之相關的時間就會發生變化。但實際上，所有這些都是時間評論，基本軌跡保持不變。

Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mitch Steves。

I just have one, just to go back to kind of the QCT breakout here. So if we look at the long-term SAM, I mean, it's kind of low double digits, but then your guidance is significantly higher than that. It looks like '21 is going to be a good year. So how do we think about just modeling correctly, kind of the 4 segments we look out over the implied same targets? I mean, is there a bogey we think about in terms of you guys being able to outgrow that number across the board? Just looking for any sort of details there would be helpful.

我只有一個，只是為了回到這裡的 QCT 突破。因此，如果我們看一下長期 SAM，我的意思是，它有點低兩位數，但你的指導遠高於此。看起來'21將是一個好年頭。那麼我們如何考慮正確地建模，我們在隱含的相同目標上查看的 4 個部分？我的意思是，就你們能夠全面超越這個數字而言，我們是否考慮過一個忌諱？只是尋找那裡的任何細節都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think in terms of kind of longer term modeling of each of the segments, we gave some disclosures at Analyst Day. We still think those are very relevant metrics to use to model our businesses.

是的。我認為就每個細分市場的長期建模而言，我們在分析師日進行了一些披露。我們仍然認為這些是用於為我們的業務建模的非常相關的指標。

So when you think about RF front-end, we gave a disclosure on greater than 20% of $18 billion SAM. On the auto side, we had given a pretty specific disclosure on our longer-term revenue target. And so that should be instructive. And then really, IoT, it's really more about what's the growth of the SAM addressable market for us? And then what are the components within that market that are growing faster that we'll be able to participate in.

因此，當您考慮 RF 前端時，我們披露了 180 億美元 SAM 中超過 20% 的信息。在汽車方面，我們已經對我們的長期收入目標進行了非常具體的披露。所以這應該是有啟發性的。然後真的，物聯網，它真的更多的是關於我們的 SAM 可尋址市場的增長是什麼？然後，該市場中哪些組件增長速度更快，我們將能夠參與其中。

Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I wanted to start with the supply chain. And I know that COVID has been ramping up again in certain parts of the world. And some participants in the industry have talked about potential for supply chain disruption again. And I wonder if you guys could just talk a little bit about your thoughts on that? Is your guidance for fiscal Q1 contemplating some disruption? Or do you believe that production is most likely to just continue normally? And then I have a follow-up.

我想從供應鏈開始。而且我知道 COVID 在世界某些地區再次流行起來。業內的一些參與者再次談到了供應鏈中斷的可能性。我想知道你們是否可以談談你們對此的看法？您對第一財季的指導是否考慮了一些干擾？還是您認為生產最有可能繼續正常進行？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. Rod, it's Akash. We're -- our guidance for the quarter is really constrained by what we can supply. And so that's really contemplated in our forecast.

是的。羅德，是阿卡什。我們 - 我們對本季度的指導確實受到我們能夠提供的東西的限制。因此，我們的預測中確實考慮到了這一點。

Okay. Great. And then my follow-up was on -- I wanted to come back to millimeter-wave. In terms of your preference for doing business there. I know you guys have talked about an interest or a willingness anyway to sell components, and we've seen some of the -- a lot of the early millimeter-wave looks like it's that, someone else's module assembly process, your components probably. But then you do also sell your own modules.

好的。偉大的。然後我的後續行動開始了——我想回到毫米波。就您在那裡開展業務的偏好而言。我知道你們已經談到了銷售組件的興趣或意願，我們已經看到了一些 - 很多早期的毫米波看起來就是這樣，其他人的模塊組裝過程，可能是你的組件。但是你也賣你自己的模塊。

So I'm just curious, which of those 2 things you prefer? I mean, is it -- I would think it's preferable to go for the component side of things, and let someone else worry about the module, but I don't know if that really is your preference. Or do you have a preference, one way or another? Just wondering how you want to do that business going forward?

所以我只是好奇，你更喜歡這兩種東西中的哪一種？我的意思是，是嗎 - 我認為最好選擇組件方面，讓其他人擔心模塊，但我不知道這是否真的是你的偏好。或者你有偏好，一種方式或另一種方式？只是想知道你想如何開展這項業務？

This is Cristiano. Look, we're very happy about the traction we're having with millimeter-wave. I feel the technology in itself requires a module because you have to have the RF front-end on the transceiver working together side by side. We're flexible. We've been commercializing our silicon within modules as well commercializing our own module. The important is the direction we're having for our customers in general, is that when we provide a complete solution fully validated from a performance standpoint and from a scale standpoint, it saved them a lot of R&D. So we'll continue to maintain the flexibility for our customers as they see value.

這是克里斯蒂亞諾。看，我們對毫米波的牽引力感到非常高興。我覺得這項技術本身需要一個模塊，因為您必須讓收發器上的射頻前端並排工作。我們很靈活。我們一直在將模塊內的矽商業化以及將我們自己的模塊商業化。重要的是我們為客戶制定的總體方向，即當我們提供從性能角度和規模角度完全驗證的完整解決方案時，它為他們節省了大量的研發費用。因此，我們將繼續為客戶保持靈活性，因為他們看到了價值。

Our next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自與 Evercore 的 CJ Muse。

I guess for my first question, and thank you for the disclosure on the subsegments. But curious, could you provide some help around how we should think about the PBT margins for each of those relative to the overall QCT business?

我想我的第一個問題，感謝您對子細分的披露。但是很好奇，您能否就我們應該如何考慮每個相對於整體 QCT 業務的 PBT 利潤率提供一些幫助？

I think, CJ, at this point, we're really talking about the portfolio of businesses within QCT. As I'm sure you appreciate, and we've discussed this in the past, one of the core premises of how we are addressing some of the incremental opportunities, and especially auto and IoT, is leveraging technology from mobile. And so it's really kind of 1 set of technology and product pools that we are leveraging across. And so I think it's better to look at the total QCT segment on margins.

我認為，CJ，在這一點上，我們真正談論的是 QCT 內的業務組合。我相信你很感激，而且我們過去已經討論過這個問題，我們如何應對一些增量機會，尤其是汽車和物聯網，的核心前提之一是利用移動技術。因此，這實際上是我們正在利用的一組技術和產品池。所以我認為最好看一下整個 QCT 部分的利潤。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, there was a question earlier, and you talked about foundry supply constraints. And I guess, curious, what is the impact on the issues around SMIC? And I guess what kind of impact, at least on the near-term side of things, has that had on the pricing that you're getting from foundries because I believe only TSMC has 28-nanometer capacity available. So would love to hear your thoughts, both from a near-term and medium-term perspective on sourcing supply from the various leading-edge foundries.

好的。這很有幫助。然後作為我的後續，之前有一個問題，你談到了代工供應限制。我想，很好奇，對中芯國際的問題有什麼影響？而且我猜想，至少在短期內，這對你從代工廠獲得的定價有什麼樣的影響，因為我相信只有台積電有 28 納米的產能。所以很想听聽你的想法，從近期和中期的角度來看，從各種領先的代工廠採購供應。

Yes, sure, CJ. So really, from our foundry strategy is we're very diversified across a lot of different foundries. And so we have close partnerships with all of them. And typically, from a pricing and negotiation perspective, we're typically locked for a reasonable period of time. And so really, I'd say, maybe no impact at this point. We were just operating as we would with our supplier partners.

是的，當然，CJ。所以真的，從我們的代工戰略來看，我們在許多不同的代工廠中都非常多元化。因此，我們與他們都有密切的合作夥伴關係。通常，從定價和談判的角度來看，我們通常會被鎖定一段合理的時間。所以真的，我想說，在這一點上也許沒有影響。我們只是像與供應商合作夥伴一樣運作。

Our final question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

My first question, I wanted to see if we could -- if I could double-click on the QCT mix. And I'm just wondering if you can give us either in terms of revenue or units, maybe the split between 3G, 4G and 5G? Because if you look at the China government data, about 2/3 of the slide through last month was 5G and about 50% year-to-date, but I'm sort of wondering on -- if you don't want to talk about units, can you talk about QCT in total? And maybe give us a sense of how much 5G is of QCT today?

我的第一個問題是，我想看看我們是否可以——如果我可以雙擊 QCT 組合。我只是想知道您是否可以在收入或單位方面給我們，也許是 3G、4G 和 5G 之間的分割？因為如果你看一下中國政府的數據，上個月下滑的大約 2/3 是 5G，今年迄今大約有 50%，但我有點想知道——如果你不想說話關於單位，你能談談QCT嗎？也許讓我們了解今天 QCT 的 5G 有多少？

Yes. Tim, probably the best way to think about this is really look at our forecast for total handsets. We're providing a range for calendar 2020 at $200 million. And then going into next year at a range of $450 million to $550 million. And so I think those are reasonable data points to think about mix between 4G and 5G for the market. And then it applies to our business as you think about individual OEMs.

是的。蒂姆，考慮這個問題的最好方法可能是看看我們對手機總數的預測。我們為 2020 年日曆提供了 2 億美元的範圍。然後以 4.5 億至 5.5 億美元的價格進入明年。因此，我認為這些是考慮市場上 4G 和 5G 混合的合理數據點。當您考慮單個 OEM 時，它也適用於我們的業務。

Okay. Okay. And I guess I also wanted to ask about the RF business. It's great that you're actually breaking that out now. And I'm sort of wondering if you could help us maybe with what the attach rate looks like. Because if I just divide the $852 million in September by the $162 million MSM, I get about $5 per unit. I mean, obviously, that's not a very straightforward way to look at it because the attach rate is not 100%. But maybe can you help us think about what the attach rate is right now for the RF business?

好的。好的。我想我也想問一下射頻業務。很高興你現在真的打破了這一點。我有點想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解附加費率的情況。因為如果我將 9 月份的 8.52 億美元除以 MSM 的 1.62 億美元，我每單位得到大約 5 美元。我的意思是，顯然，這不是一個非常直接的方式來看待它，因為附加率不是 100%。但是，也許您能幫助我們考慮一下目前 RF 業務的附加率是多少？

Yes. As we think about the RF business, really, there's tremendous complexity in that business, right, between which tier of device it is, which OEM, whether it's being designed for a specific geography or multiple geographies between sub-6 and millimeter-wave, the SAM addressable market per device changes quite a bit. And so we try to not think of it as an attach rate business. Rather, we think of it as available addressable market, and we try to maximize our position within that.

是的。當我們考慮射頻業務時，實際上，該業務存在巨大的複雜性，對，它位於哪一層設備之間，哪個 OEM，無論它是為特定地理區域設計還是為亞 6 波和毫米波之間的多個地理區域設計，每個設備的 SAM 可尋址市場發生了很大變化。因此，我們盡量不將其視為附加費率業務。相反，我們將其視為可用的潛在市場，並試圖在其中最大化我們的地位。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

今天的問答環節到此結束。 Mollenkopf 先生，在暫停通話之前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just a thank you to the employees. I think this quarter, probably more than any quarter I can think of, really demonstrates the strength of not only the businesses and the products that we're working on. But also, I would say the culture of the company and its ability to keep things on track in a very difficult time. So thank you very much for your hard work. It's great to see recognition of that in the market and keep it going. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.

是的。只是對員工表示感謝。我認為這個季度，可能比我能想到的任何一個季度都更能真正展示我們正在開發的業務和產品的實力。而且，我想說的是公司的文化及其在非常困難的時期保持正軌的能力。非常感謝您的辛勤工作。很高興看到市場對此的認可並繼續前進。非常感謝。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。