高通 (QCOM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 4, 2020. The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13711766.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的聆聽。歡迎參加高通2020財年第四季及財報電話會議。 （接線生指示）溫馨提示：本次電話會議將於2020年11月4日錄製。今日電話會議的回放號碼為(877) 660-6853。國際用戶請撥打(201) 612-7415。回放預約號碼為13711766。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

現在我想把電話轉給投資人關係副總裁 Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan。 Lopez-Hodoyan 先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.

謝謝大家，下午好。今天的電話會議將包括史蒂夫·莫倫科普夫和阿卡什·帕爾基瓦拉的準備演講。此外，克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格也將參加問答環節。

You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查看本次電話會議的財報和投影片簡報。此外，本次電話會議將在 qualcomm.com 上進行網路直播，重播將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

During the call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K once filed, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

在電話會議中，我們將使用G條例中定義的非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標，您可以在我們的網站上找到與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 相關的對帳表。我們還將做出前瞻性陳述，包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢、業務或財務結果的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，包括我們最近提交的10-K報告，其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的重要因素。

And now, to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

現在，我們來聽聽高通執行長史蒂夫·莫倫科夫的評論。

Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal 2020 was an extraordinary year, presenting both a unique set of opportunities as well as challenges. We achieved a number of significant accomplishments, including scaling 5G devices globally with our partners while navigating the sudden onset of the global pandemic.

謝謝毛里西奧，大家午安。 2020財年是不平凡的一年，既帶來了獨特的機遇，也帶來了挑戰。我們取得了許多重大成就，包括與合作夥伴攜手在全球推廣5G設備，同時應對突如其來的全球疫情。

In March, with the safety of our employees as our top priority, we rapidly aligned our operations to a completely different work environment. We were able to limit the number of on-site essential workers while simultaneously executing on product commitments and driving our business forward. The challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the critical importance of our technology and products. I want to thank our 41,000 Qualcomm team members for their steadfast commitment to our mission of inventing and commercializing breakthrough wireless technologies.

今年3月，我們將員工安全放在第一位，迅速調整營運模式，適應全新的工作環境。我們成功限制了現場必要工作人員的數量，同時履行了產品承諾，並推動了業務發展。新冠疫情帶來的挑戰凸顯了我們技術和產品的關鍵重要性。我要感謝4.1萬名高通團隊成員，感謝他們堅定不移地致力於我們發明和商業化突破性無線技術的使命。

As you can see from our results, the early stages of the 5G ramp are well underway, with our strategy playing out largely as expected. We delivered Q4 non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and a record non-GAAP earnings of $1.45 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 35% and 86%, respectively, both exceeding the high end of our guidance.

從我們的績效可以看出，5G 業務的早期發展進展順利，我們的策略基本上符合預期。第四季度，我們實現了 65 億美元的非公認會計準則營收和創紀錄的每股 1.45 美元的非公認會計準則收益，分別同比增長 35% 和 86%，均超過了我們預期的上限。

QCT revenues of $5 billion were up 38% year-over-year. It's worth noting that our Q4 QCT revenue, a near record, included only a partial quarter impact from a large U.S. OEM customer. This strong result demonstrates the breadth of our customer traction.

QCT 營收 50 億美元，年增 38%。值得注意的是，我們第四季度 QCT 營收接近歷史最高水平，但僅包含來自一家大型美國 OEM 客戶的部分季度影響。這一強勁業績彰顯了我們廣泛的客戶吸引力。

While our transition from a 4G leader to a 5G leader was faced with numerous challenges, our employees remain focused throughout. Since January 2016, confident in our ability to execute on the upcoming 5G ramp, we spent $30 billion to retire 25% of our shares at an average price of approximately $64.50, amplifying the benefits of the organic growth you are seeing today.

儘管我們從4G領導者轉型為5G領導者面臨許多挑戰，但我們的員工始終保持專注。自2016年1月以來，我們對自己在即將到來的5G發展道路上的執行能力充滿信心，斥資300億美元，以平均約64.50美元的價格回購了25%的股份，從而進一步放大了您今天看到的有機增長效益。

As you can see in our results, we have successfully commercialized our innovation leadership in our product business through a combination of higher dollar share of content, combined with significant 5G design wins with leading OEMs around the world. Our foundational 5G innovations, unmatched patent portfolio and ecosystem collaborations enable us to drive the industry forward to facilitate the rapid global adoption of 5G. Our continued innovation drives success and stability in our licensing business. All major handset OEMs are under license, and we now have over 110 5G agreements.

如您在業績中所見，我們已成功將產品業務中的創新領導力商業化，這得益於更高的內容收入份額，以及與全球領先OEM廠商達成的重大5G設計訂單。我們紮實的5G創新、無與倫比的專利組合以及生態系統合作，使我們能夠推動產業發展，促進5G在全球的快速普及。我們持續的創新推動了授權業務的成功和穩定。所有主流手機OEM廠商都已獲得授權，目前我們已簽署超過110份5G協議。

In fiscal '20, our focus on innovation continued at an accelerated pace despite COVID-19 challenges. Year-over-year, invention disclosures were up over 60%, and 5G-related invention disclosures more than doubled. We continue to drive innovation advances in 5G through releases 17, 18 and beyond, which will enable the adoption of wireless technology broadly beyond smartphones and into other industries.

2020財年，儘管面臨新冠疫情的挑戰，我們仍持續加速創新步伐。發明揭露量年增超過60%，5G相關發明揭露量更是翻了一番多。我們將繼續透過第17、18版及後續版本推動5G創新發展，這將使無線技術的應用範圍從智慧型手機擴展到其他產業。

We have sustained this focus despite unwarranted legal challenges, and we now look forward to continuing our decades-long commitment to fundamental transformative innovation.

儘管面臨不必要的法律挑戰，我們仍然堅持這一重點，現在我們期待繼續我們數十年來對根本性變革創新的承諾。

Over the years, we have built strong portfolios in several key areas that converge with and enable wireless systems and applications, such as multimedia, security and artificial intelligence. Our proven ability to invent and commercialize leading technologies is the foundation of how we drive long-term value for our stockholders. The early success of our 5G rollout is a great testament to our strategy of investing well in advance of these large opportunities. 5G represents the single largest opportunity in our history, creating new opportunities to extend our leadership. This will continue to play out over many years as wireless disruption will impact many industries.

多年來，我們在多媒體、安全和人工智慧等多個關鍵領域建立了強大的產品組合，這些領域與無線系統和應用相融合並為其提供支援。我們久經考驗的發明和商業化領先技術的能力，是我們為股東創造長期價值的基石。 5G 部署的早期成功，充分證明了我們事先佈局這些重大機會的策略。 5G 代表我們歷史上最大的機遇，為鞏固我們的領導地位創造了新的機會。由於無線技術的顛覆將影響眾多產業，這一趨勢將在未來多年持續顯現。

As an example, several years ago, we identified RF as a unique transition opportunity to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a 5G experience. I am particularly proud of how the team has executed against this opportunity, creating a leadership position in a short period of time. In fiscal '20, we delivered $2.4 billion of RF front-end revenue, up 60% year-over-year. Qualcomm is now one of the largest RF suppliers with design wins across all our premium tier smartphone customers and with a long-term road map to continue to grow our RF leadership as 5G is adopted in other industries.

例如，幾年前，我們將射頻視為一個獨特的轉型機遇，以應對提供5G體驗的許多技術挑戰。我尤其為團隊如何抓住這一機會並在短時間內建立領導地位感到自豪。 2020財年，我們的射頻前端營收達到24億美元，年增60%。高通現已成為最大的射頻供應商之一，其設計方案已贏得我們所有高端智慧型手機客戶的青睞，並製定了長期發展路線圖，以隨著5G在其他行業的應用，繼續鞏固我們在射頻領域的領導地位。

Our 5G design wins continue to be powered by our RF front-end solutions, whether they support 4G, sub-6 millimeter-wave or both 5G bands, and whether they are in smartphones or other products such as embedded modules for PCs, IoT solutions or mobile hotspots. As we have in RF, we have built beachhead positions in both auto and IoT. Our scale enables us to make multiple profitable bets in areas where we expect a tailwind as each of these industry road maps adopt cellular technologies, as you can see taking place today in automotive, where we have emerged as a strategic technology partner to the automotive industry, with nearly all the major OEMs adopting our products. Next-generation 5G telematics design wins, in addition to our 3G and 4G design wins, solidify our position as a leader in connected cars. We are also extending our mobile RF front-end leadership into automotive where 100% of our next-generation 5G and a majority of our next-generation 4G telematics design wins include our automotive qualified RF front-end products. In addition, our digital cockpit solutions, now in the third generation, enable best-in-class capabilities across premium, mid- and entry tier solutions.

我們的 5G 設計勝利繼續得益於我們的射頻前端解決方案，無論它們支援 4G、6 毫米以下還是 5G 頻段，也無論它們是用於智慧型手機還是其他產品，例如 PC 的嵌入式模組、物聯網解決方案或行動熱點。正如我們在射頻領域所做的那樣，我們在汽車和物聯網領域都建立了灘頭陣地。我們的規模使我們能夠在我們預計會順風的領域進行多項有利可圖的投資，因為這些行業路線圖都採用了蜂窩技術，正如您今天在汽車領域看到的那樣，我們已經成為汽車行業的戰略技術合作夥伴，幾乎所有主要的原始設備製造商都在採用我們的產品。除了 3G 和 4G 設計勝利之外，下一代 5G 遠端資訊處理設計勝利鞏固了我們在連網汽車領域的領先地位。我們也將行動射頻前端領域的領先地位拓展至汽車領域，我們100%的下一代5G和大部分下一代4G遠端資訊處理設計均採用了我們符合汽車標準的射頻前端產品。此外，我們目前已發展到第三代的數位座艙解決方案，為高階、中階和入門級解決方案提供了一流的功能。

Our automotive design win pipeline is now approximately $8 billion, up from almost $6.5 billion at the start of the fiscal year, giving us great visibility into meeting the long-term revenue targets we provided at our Analyst Day last November. The automotive industry is transforming at an unprecedented rate, and we are incredibly well positioned to lead the industry with a long-term opportunity to expand our dollar share of content in auto as we have done in smartphones.

我們的汽車設計訂單總額目前約為80億美元，高於本會計年度年初的近65億美元，這讓我們對實現去年11月分析師日提出的長期營收目標有了更清晰的認識。汽車產業正以前所未有的速度轉型，我們擁有引領產業的有利條件，並擁有長期發展機會，可以像在智慧型手機領域一樣，擴大我們在汽車領域的內容收入份額。

Turning to IoT. We are extending our IP investments from across the company into our portfolio of connected and non-connected products with a broad portfolio of technologies, including connectivity, lower-power processing and security. We are also diversified across multiple product areas and industry verticals as we have nearly 13,000 customers.

談到物聯網。我們正在將智慧財產權投資從公司層級擴展到我們涵蓋互聯和非互聯產品的組合，涵蓋廣泛的技術組合，包括連接、低功耗處理和安全。我們擁有近13,000家客戶，業務涵蓋多個產品領域和垂直產業。

In fiscal '20, we saw better-than-anticipated performance in IoT, with strong revenue growth, driven largely by demand in networking, retail, industrial, tracking and utilities verticals. Our high-performance WiFi solutions continue to drive WiFi access point toward record levels. And looking forward, our WiFi continues to evolve, our execution on WiFi 6E has put Qualcomm into a leadership position.

在20財年，我們在物聯網領域的業績超乎預期，營收成長強勁，這主要得益於網路、零售、工業、追蹤和公用事業等垂直領域的需求。我們的高效能WiFi解決方案持續推動WiFi接入點邁向創紀錄的水平。展望未來，我們的WiFi將持續發展，我們在WiFi 6E上的落地使高通佔據了領先地位。

We have also brought wearable solutions to our smartphone OEMs as well as the broader ecosystem of consumer product companies. Our inventions, technology and road map have also enabled us to establish a leadership position in XR. With over 30 commercial devices, our Snapdragon XR Solutions that connect physical and digital spaces are the consumer and enterprise platforms of choice. We have been driving the cost and performance curve of low-power, high-performance compute since our first launch of the Snapdragon in 2007.

我們也為智慧型手機OEM廠商以及更廣泛的消費性產品生態系統帶來了穿戴式解決方案。我們的創新、技術和路線圖也使我們在XR領域確立了領導地位。憑藉超過30款商用設備，我們連接實體空間和數位空間的驍龍XR解決方案已成為消費者和企業的首選平台。自2007年首次推出驍龍XR以來，我們始終致力於推動低功耗、高效能運算的成本與效能曲線的提升。

We are also investing in next-generation infrastructure and edge compute, 2 areas today that we believe will create significant opportunities in several years. Our objective is to provide technology differentiation that will enable us to achieve a leadership position. As the cloud converges with the mobile Internet, wireless networks are transforming and becoming virtualized.

我們也正在投資下一代基礎設施和邊緣運算，我們相信這兩個領域將在幾年後創造巨大的機會。我們的目標是提供技術差異化，從而鞏固我們的領導地位。隨著雲端與行動互聯網的融合，無線網路正在轉型並走向虛擬化。

Beyond the cost and operational benefits for service providers, virtualization is enabling new service provider models where infrastructure is intersecting with digital services, such as you have seen with Rakuten and Geo.

除了服務提供者的成本和營運優勢之外，虛擬化還支援新的服務提供者模式，其中基礎設施與數位服務相交叉，例如您在 Rakuten 和 Geo 中看到的那樣。

Turning to inference, with over 10 years of AI R&D and over 1 billion AI-capable devices enabled with our technology, and fundamental assets such as low-power compute, process node leadership and signal processing expertise, we are well positioned to extend our smartphone AI leadership into growing applications, such as data centers, edge appliances and 5G infrastructure.

轉向推理，憑藉超過 10 年的人工智慧研發經驗和超過 10 億台採用我們技術支援的人工智慧設備，以及低功耗運算、製程節點領導力和訊號處理專業知識等基礎資產，我們完全有能力將智慧型手機人工智慧領導地位擴展到不斷增長的應用中，例如資料中心、邊緣設備和 5G 基礎設施。

Building on our modem and RF expertise, we recently announced our new 5G RAN platform offerings. These platforms will provide foundational technology for high-performance infrastructure and will accelerate the cellular ecosystem transition towards virtualized and interoperable radio access networks, a trend driven by 5G.

憑藉我們在數據機和射頻領域的專業知識，我們近期發布了全新的 5G RAN 平台產品。這些平台將為高效能基礎設施提供基礎技術，並將加速蜂窩生態系統向虛擬化和可互通無線接入網路的轉型，這是 5G 驅動的趨勢。

Our expanded portfolio, which is scalable from macro to micro sites, will include integrated support for 5G millimeter-wave and sub-6 gigahertz spectrum across all key global bands. Together with our partners, we are helping to drive the vRAN transition with commercial products expected by calendar year 2023.

我們擴展的產品組合可從宏站擴展到微站，並將整合支援所有主要全球頻段的 5G 毫米波和 6 千兆赫以下頻譜。我們正攜手合作夥伴，協助 vRAN 轉型，預計於 2023 年推出商用產品。

In summary, with leading technology and intellectual property, a differentiated product road map and 5G, we are well positioned for a multiyear growth opportunity.

總之，憑藉領先的技術和智慧財產權、差異化的產品路線圖和 5G，我們已準備好迎接多年的成長機會。

I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

現在我想把電話轉給 Akash。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. We're extremely pleased to report another strong quarter to conclude a challenging year in which we remain resilient and achieved several key business milestones. Our fourth fiscal quarter non-GAAP results came in above the high end of our guidance range for revenue and EPS, driven by strong performance in both QTL and QCT. We delivered non-GAAP revenues of $6.5 billion and record EPS of $1.45, with year-over-year increases of 35% and 86%, respectively. We delivered GAAP revenues of $8.3 billion and EPS of $2.58. As a reminder, these results include the benefit related to prior periods from our recent licensing and settlement agreements with Huawei.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家下午好。我們非常高興地宣布，我們又一個強勁的季度業績，為充滿挑戰的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。在這一年中，我們保持了韌性，並實現了幾個關鍵的業務里程碑。由於季度銷售收入 (QTL) 和季度銷售收入 (QCT) 的強勁表​​現，我們第四財季的非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 業績高於我們收入和每股收益預期範圍的上限。我們的非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 收入為 65 億美元，每股盈餘創歷史新高，較去年同期成長 35% 和 86%。我們公認的會計準則 (GAAP) 收入為 83 億美元，每股收益為 2.58 美元。需要提醒的是，這些業績包含了我們最近與華為達成的許可和和解協議帶來的前期收益。

In the fourth quarter, we saw a year-over-year reduction of approximately 5% in global 3G, 4G, 5G handset shipments relative to our prior planning assumption of a 15% reduction. The upside was driven by a strong rebound in emerging markets following the impact of COVID-19 on handset demand in previous quarters.

第四季度，全球3G、4G和5G手機出貨量年減約5%，而我們先前預測的降幅為15%。這一成長主要得益於新興市場在前幾季受到新冠疫情衝擊後強勁反彈。

In QTL, we delivered revenues of $1.5 billion, and EBT margin of 73%, both above the high end of our guidance range. This upside was driven by higher global handset shipments and a favorable OEM mix.

在季度末，我們實現了15億美元的營收，息稅前利潤率達到73%，均高於我們預期的上限。這一增長得益於全球手機出貨量的增加以及有利的OEM廠商組合。

In QCT, we delivered strong results with MSM shipments of 162 million units, revenues of $5 billion, which was above the high end of our guidance range. We are pleased to report EBT margins of 20%, achieving the long-term target we had provided at our 2019 Analyst Day. QCT revenues and EBT increased 38% and 103%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis, driven by strength in handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT.

在QCT業務方面，我們取得了強勁的業績，MSM出貨量達1.62億台，營收達50億美元，高於我們預期的高端。我們很高興地報告息稅前利潤率（EBT）達到20%，實現了我們在2019年分析師日設定的長期目標。受手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網業務強勁成長的推動，QCT營收和息稅前利潤分別較去年同期成長38%和103%。

RF front-end revenues of $852 million were higher than our prior guidance of $750 million, reflecting design traction across major handset OEMs. In automotive, we saw a sequential revenue growth of 36% to $188 million as our telematics, connectivity and digital cockpit products benefited from the industry rebound. In IoT, increased demand for connected devices due to the work-from-home environment drove 21% sequential revenue growth to $926 million. We're excited about our opportunities in this growing industry segment.

射頻前端收入達8.52億美元，高於我們先前7.5億美元的預期，反映了各大手機OEM廠商的設計吸引力。汽車領域，得益於產業復甦，我們的遠端資訊處理、互聯互通和數位座艙產品收入較上季成長36%，達到1.88億美元。物聯網領域，由於居家辦公環境的推動，對連網設備的需求增加，推動營收季增21%，達到9.26億美元。我們對在這個蓬勃發展的行業領域中的機會感到興奮。

I will now summarize results for fiscal 2020. Despite the challenging economic environment due to COVID-19, we achieved non-GAAP revenues of $21.7 billion and EPS of $4.19, up 12% and 18%, respectively versus fiscal 2019. In addition, we executed on several key milestones, including the completion of long-term license agreements, acceleration of 5G and RF front-end design traction and building a platform for long-term growth in automotive and IoT.

現在我將總結一下2020財年的業績。儘管新冠疫情為經濟環境帶來了挑戰，但我們仍實現了非公認會計準則收入217億美元和每股收益4.19美元，分別較2019財年增長12%和18%。此外，我們還實現了幾個關鍵里程碑，包括完成長期授權協議、加速5G和射頻前端設計的發展以及建立汽車和物聯網長期成長平台。

Turning to 5G handsets. We are pleased to see that all major handset OEMs have now commercialized 5G smartphones, many of which are using our modem-to-antenna system solution, including millimeter-wave for select regions. In total, we now have over 700 5G designs announced or in development.

說到 5G 手機。我們很高興看到所有主流手機廠商都已將 5G 智慧型手機商業化，其中許多都採用了我們的數據機到天線系統解決方案，包括針對部分地區的毫米波解決方案。目前，我們總共已宣布或正在開發超過 700 款 5G 設計。

We are maintaining our bias towards the high end of our previous forecast of 175 million to 225 million units for calendar 2020 5G handsets. In calendar 2021, we are forecasting 450 to 550 5G handsets, a year-over-year growth of 150% at the midpoint. For our global 3G, 4G, 5G handset forecast, we are using a planning assumption of approximately 5% decline versus calendar 2019 for the December quarter and for calendar 2021. This estimate is consistent with the impact we saw in the September quarter. This implies year-over-year growth of high single digits for total handsets in calendar 2021.

我們維持先前預測的2020年5G手機出貨量1.75億至2.25億部高階區間的預測。我們預測2021年5G手機出貨量將達到450至550部，以中位數計算年增150%。對於全球3G、4G和5G手機出貨量的預測，我們採用的規劃假設是，12月季度和2021年12月季度的出貨量較2019年同期下降約5%。這項預測與我們在9月季度看到的影響一致。這意味著2021年手機出貨量將年增高個位數。

I will now outline our decision to provide enhanced QCT revenue disclosures going forward. Starting with this quarter's results, we are providing revenue breakout by handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. With this change, we will not provide MSM guidance or actuals going forward. This disclosure will allow tracking of our progress for each of these categories as 5G expands our growth opportunity outside mobile. In addition, this change is consistent with the framework we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. Please refer to our Investor Relations website for additional detail and historical revenue breakout.

現在，我將概述我們未來將提供更完善的QCT收入揭露的決定。從本季業績開始，我們將按手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網提供收入明細。根據此變更，我們將不再提供MSM指引或實際數據。隨著5G拓展我們在行動領域以外的成長機會，此揭露將使我們能夠追蹤每個類別的進展。此外，此變更與我們在2019年分析師日概述的框架一致。更多詳情和歷史收入明細，請訪問我們的投資者關係網站。

Turning to our first fiscal quarter guidance. We are forecasting strong earnings with revenues of $7.8 billion to $8.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 to $2.15, a year-over-year increase of 62% and 107%, respectively, at the midpoint. In QTL, we are estimating revenues of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, and EBIT margin of 74% to 78%, reflecting a sequential increase due to flagship handset launches and holiday seasonality.

談到我們第一財季的業績指引。我們預測獲利強勁，營收將在78億美元至86億美元之間，非公認會計準則每股收益將在1.95美元至2.15美元之間，以中位數計算，分別較去年同期成長62%和107%。我們預計第一財季營收將在16億美元至18億美元之間，息稅前利潤率將在74%至78%之間，這反映了旗艦手機發布和假日旺季帶來的環比增長。

In QCT, we estimate revenues of $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion, up 80% year-over-year at the midpoint, driven by growth across handsets, RF front-end, automotive and IoT. We expect QCT EBT margins to be between 25% and 27%, reflecting an EBT increase of $1.2 billion versus the year ago period.

我們預計 QCT 的營收將在 62 億美元至 68 億美元之間，年增 80%，主要得益於手機、射頻前端、汽車和物聯網業務的成長。我們預計 QCT 的息稅前利潤率將在 25% 至 27% 之間，息稅前利潤較去年同期增加 12 億美元。

Lastly, we anticipate non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be up approximately 2% sequentially.

最後，我們預期非公認會計準則綜合研發銷售、一般及行政費用將較上季成長約 2%。

Looking forward to the second fiscal quarter. Based on the handset assumptions I previously outlined, and the seasonal decline after the holidays, we estimate QTL revenues to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. In QCT, following the launch of a flagship 5G handset, we now expect second quarter seasonality to be consistent with QTL and global handset shipments. As a reminder, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses are typically higher in the second fiscal quarter as it includes the normal calendar year resets for certain employee-related costs.

展望第二財季。基於我先前概述的手機業務假設，以及假期後的季節性下滑，我們預計QTL收入將在13億美元至15億美元之間。在QCT方面，隨著旗艦5G手機的推出，我們目前預計第二季的季節性將與QTL和全球手機出貨量保持一致。需要提醒的是，非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）下的研發和銷售、一般及行政管理（SG&A）費用在第二財季通常較高，因為其中包含了某些員工相關成本的正常日曆年重置。

For the second half of fiscal 2021, we expect the quarterly profile for both our QTL and QCT businesses to be consistent with the seasonality of the global handset shipments. Lastly, for each quarter in fiscal 2021, we are forecasting net interest expense of approximately $125 million, weighted average shares outstanding of 1.15 billion and a non-GAAP annual effective tax rate of 14%.

2021財年下半年，我們預期QTL和QCT業務的季度表現將與全球手機出貨量的季節性保持一致。最後，我們預測2021財年每季的淨利息支出約為1.25億美元，加權平均流通股數為11.5億股，非公認會計準則年度有效稅率為14%。

Before I finish my prepared remarks, I want to thank our employees for their contribution throughout this unprecedented year. In fiscal 2021, we are focused on delivering revenue growth and operating leverage, in line with the financial targets we outlined at our 2019 Analyst Day. We remain focused on executing on our 5G road map and commercializing breakthrough technologies that will drive growth for many years. Thank you.

在結束我的準備演講之前，我想感謝我們的員工在這前所未有的一年裡所做的貢獻。 2021財年，我們將專注於實現營收成長和營運槓桿，以實現我們在2019年分析師日上提出的財務目標。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的5G路線圖，並將突破性技術商業化，這些技術將在未來多年推動公司的成長。謝謝大家。

I'll now turn the call back to Mauricio.

我現在將電話轉回給毛里西奧。

Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are ready for questions.

謝謝您，Akash。接線員，我們準備好回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

Just a question on the EBT margins. Very strong implied guidance for the seasonally strong Q4, but you also highlighted some investment for growth in new areas. How should we think just about trends in terms of margins for QTL and QCT as you harvest 5G investments?

只想問一下息稅前利潤率 (EBT) 的問題。對於季節性強勁的第四季度，您給出了非常強勁的隱含指引，但您也強調了一些針對新領域成長的投資。在 5G 投資獲得豐厚回報之際，我們該如何看待 QTL 和 QCT 的利潤率趨勢？

And in QTL, perhaps you lower legal expenses and maybe see some higher margins there?

在 QTL 中，也許您可以降低法律費用並可能獲得更高的利潤？

Mike, this is Akash. Really, from a margin perspective, we're extremely happy, first of all, to deliver the 20% margin in QCT in the September quarter. I mean that's -- we've guided a midpoint of 18%, and we're happy to see us get to that target a quarter sooner than we had anticipated.

麥克，我是阿卡什。真的，從利潤率的角度來看，我們非常高興，首先，QCT 在 9 月季度實現了 20% 的利潤率。我的意思是——我們之前預計的中位數為 18%，我們很高興看到我們比預期提前一個季度實現了這個目標。

As you saw, we are guiding strength going into the December quarter as well with a midpoint that's at 26% in QCT.

如您所見，我們也預測 12 月季度的業績將強勁成長，QCT 的中位數為 26%。

As we go forward, one of the things that you have to keep in mind is just the seasonality of the businesses. If -- let me address QTL and then QCT again.

隨著我們繼續前進，你必須牢記的一件事就是業務的季節性。我先來談談QTL，然後再談QCT。

For QTL, seasonally strong quarter in December, given kind of the handset launches that happen and then overall holiday impact. As you go beyond that, we've provided a guidance for the March quarter, so that will give you a second data point. And then really, between those data points and our actuals for September, you'll be able to forecast kind of the rest of the year. From a margin perspective, we had given guidance at Analyst Day and that contemplated how our financials would play out in QTL. So it's very consistent with that. So we don't really have an update relative to that guidance point.

對於季度末（QTL），考慮到手機的發布以及整體假期的影響，12月是季節性強勁的季度。除此之外，我們也提供了3月季度的業績指引，這將為您提供第二個數據點。然後，根據這些數據點和9月份的實際數據，您將能夠預測今年剩餘時間的表現。從利潤率的角度來看，我們在分析師日給出了指引，其中考慮了我們的財務狀況在季度末的表現。因此，這與先前的指引非常一致。因此，我們目前還沒有關於該指引點的更新資訊。

For QCT, as you think about the December quarter guidance, again, a very strong quarter seasonally, now with the launch of a flagship 5G handset with our chip in it, it drives our December quarter is very strong. The seasonality of the business changes though with this launch, and what happens is when you look at -- it's different than the last couple of years. You almost have to go back 3 or 4 years, where, typically, we saw a decline of 15% in revenues between first quarter and second quarter in QCT, just based on seasonality. And so we'll be reconciled more to that seasonality going forward.

對於 QCT，回顧一下 12 月季度的業績指引，這又是一個季節性非常強勁的季度。現在，我們推出了一款搭載我們晶片的旗艦 5G 手機，這推動了我們 12 月季度的業績非常強勁。不過，隨著這款手機的發布，業務的季節性發生了變化，具體情況與過去幾年有所不同。回顧過去 3 到 4 年，通常情況下，QCT 在第一季和第二季之間的收入會下降 15%，這僅僅是基於季節性因素。因此，未來我們會更加適應這種季節性。

From a margin perspective, strong margin in QCT in first quarter, and then really the margin will change based on the profile of the revenue as we move forward.

從利潤率的角度來看，第一季 QCT 的利潤率很高，但隨著我們未來的發展，利潤率實際上會根據收入狀況而變化。

Our next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

Congrats on the results, strong results here. I just wanted to start off, I have a couple of questions. I wanted to start off on the RF content, which you -- on smartphones, which you clearly outlined is doing better than you expected. Just based on the visibility you have into the pipeline in fiscal '21, how should we think about either meeting or even exceeding the targets you outlined for RF on smartphone? I think it was about $3.5 billion of revenue that you outlined at the Analyst Day. If you can just share your thoughts on that. And I have a follow-up.

祝賀你們取得如此強勁的業績。首先，我有幾個問題。我想先談談你們在智慧型手機領域的射頻業務，你們明確指出，這部分業務的表現超出了你們的預期。基於你們對21財年發展規劃的了解，我們該如何看待你們為智慧型手機射頻業務設定的目標，甚至超越這個目標？你們在分析師日上提出的目標收入約為35億美元。能否分享一下你們對此的看法？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Samik, it's Akash again. So I think, from a guidance perspective, for RF front-end, as you'll recall at Analyst Day, we said we expect to be more than 20% share in an $18 billion market. And that target was really for fiscal '22. We're very happy with the way our RF front-end business has played out. We're seeing a lot of strength, not just in the quarter we reported and the forward quarter, but just really in the long-term design win pipeline across the board. So we're very optimistic that we'll be able to get to our target sooner. But really, beyond that, we are not updating kind of longer-term guidance at this point.

是的。 Samik，又是Akash。所以我認為，從射頻前端的指引角度來看，正如您在分析師日上所記得的，我們預計在180億美元的市場中佔有超過20%的份額。這個目標其實是針對2022財年的。我們對射頻前端業務的表現非常滿意。我們看到了巨大的成長勢頭，不僅在我們報告的本季和未來季度，而且在長期設計訂單方面也確實如此。因此，我們非常樂觀地認為我們能夠更快地實現目標。但除此之外，我們目前還沒有更新任何長期指引。

Samik, this is Cristiano. Just one quick comment for you. The -- as we increase the number of designs to 680, the trend continues. We see 5G RF front-end attached to some of those designs. So we feel pretty good about the pipeline, continue to grow that business.

薩米克，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。我只想簡單說一句。隨著我們的設計數量增加到680個，這種趨勢仍在持續。我們看到其中一些設計附帶了5G射頻前端。因此，我們對產品線非常滿意，並將繼續發展這項業務。

Got it. And if I could just follow-up. Obviously, there's been a lot of changes in the environment here with the current restrictions on Huawei smartphone business or kind of the restrictions impacting that. How should I think about how that is impacting results right now? Is it proving, in your kind of view, to be a headwind to industry volumes? Or kind of are competitors to Huawei ordering more that's kind of helping results? How should I think about the impact?

明白了。我可以繼續問嗎？顯然，由於目前對華為智慧型手機業務的限制，或者說這些限制正在影響華為的業績，環境已經發生了很大變化。我該如何看待這些限制對目前的業績的影響？在您看來，這是否會對產業銷售造成不利影響？或者說，華為的競爭對手是否會增加訂單，進而對業績有所好處？我該如何看待這些影響？

Thanks for your question, Samik. This is Cristiano. So as you know, right now, we -- as we don't have a license to sell products to Huawei, we're not selling to Huawei. The way you should think about this, and consistent with what we have said in the last earnings call, the Huawei opportunity creates an expansion of addressable market for QCT. We feel pretty hedged in our position, given our very high traction with all the premium and high-tier OEMs. And whether that, in the long run, it's an opportunity with Huawei in the event that we receive a license, or if an opportunity for our customers, we actually see that as a net positive and an expansion of TAM for QCT. And we expect that to play out as we look at demand in the handset towards 2021.

謝謝你的提問，薩米克。我是克里斯蒂亞諾。如你所知，目前我們沒有獲得向華為銷售產品的許可證，所以我們不會向華為銷售產品。你應該這樣想，而且正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說的，華為的機會為QCT創造了一個潛在的市場。鑑於我們與所有高端和高端OEM廠商的密切合作，我們感覺目前的情況相當穩健。從長遠來看，無論是獲得許可證後對華為的合作機會，還是對我們的客戶來說是一個機會，我們都認為這會帶來淨收益，並擴大QCT的潛在市場規模。我們預計，隨著2021年手機需求的增加，這種情況將逐漸顯現。

Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。

Akash, I guess, maybe this question is for you and Cristiano, partly. I really appreciate the additional disclosures in QTL -- or in QCT rather. Maybe you could talk about, given the magnitude of the upside to the outlook for the December quarter, just help us a little bit to break down that upside in the chip business by maybe units and then also RF versus maybe core ASPs and units in the modem business. If you could just sort of give us some help there, just given the magnitude of the upside and the change in the disclosures just so we can all put models, at least for this first quarter out of the gate.

阿卡什，我想，這個問題可能部分是想問你和克里斯蒂亞諾的。我非常感謝你們在QTL（或更確切地說是QCT）方面的補充披露。考慮到12月季度前景的上行空間，或許你能幫我們稍微分析一下晶片業務的上行空間，例如按單位數，然後是射頻業務，以及調製解調器業務的核心平均售價和單位數。考慮到上行空間的規模和揭露的變化，能否請你幫我們分析一下，這樣我們就可以至少在第一季就建立模型了。

Yes. Matt, so let me just kind of quickly run through the disclosure change. What we really wanted to do was, over the last couple of years, our business has evolved a bit. And so we're seeing a different set of drivers for revenue growth than units. And so it's driven by, obviously, 4G to 5G transition, driving more content, RF front-end and then automotive and IoT playing a key role in our growth as well. And so the goal with it was to give data points that will allow the investors to track our progress in this area. And then again, it's very consistent with how we outlined our business at the Analyst Day, and then that's kind of the core thought process behind it.

是的。馬特，讓我快速介紹一下資訊揭露的變化。我們真正想做的是，在過去幾年裡，我們的業務有所發展。因此，我們看到收入成長的驅動力與銷售成長有所不同。顯然，收入成長的驅動力來自4G到5G的過渡，這推動了更多內容的出現。射頻前端，以及汽車和物聯網，這些都在我們的成長中發揮關鍵作用。因此，我們的目標是提供數據點，讓投資者能夠追蹤我們在這一領域的進展。再說一次，這與我們在分析師日上對業務的概述非常一致，這也是我們背後的核心想法。

As you see in the September quarter, we've given a disclosure on breakdown. A lot of strength across each of those areas. You've seen a strong growth in IoT, which was driven by a demand for connected devices. And in the home, and as kind of the work-from-home environment permeates, there's just an increasing need for connectivity. And then we also saw a rebound on the auto side that drove significant strength.

正如您在9月份季度中看到的，我們已經揭露了細分資料。每個領域都表現出色。您已經看到物聯網的強勁成長，這得益於對連網設備的需求。在家庭領域，隨著在家工作環境的普及，對連結的需求也日益增長。此外，我們還看到汽車領域的反彈，這顯著推動了成長。

As we look forward, all of those trends are holding for us. So we expect kind of similar strength going into next quarter for each of those areas. We're obviously not providing a breakdown of our forecast. We're providing it at the total QCT level. But the underlying strength, really, all those drivers remain looking forward.

展望未來，所有這些趨勢都將持續。因此，我們預計下個季度這些領域將呈現類似的強勁勢頭。我們顯然不會提供預測的細分數據，而是提供整體QCT水準的數據。但潛在的強勁勢頭，實際上，所有這些驅動因素仍然值得期待。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso。

I guess, first question was with regard to QTL. And I get the results for the September quarter and the guidance for the December quarter is above what the sort of normal levels that you've referred to before. So -- and I guess what you're talking about for the March quarter is as well. Is this sort of a new normal level for the QTL business going forward? And could you explain why that's the case and the permanence of this level of revenue?

我想，第一個問題是關於QTL的。我拿到了9月季度的業績，12月季度的業績指引也高於您之前提到的正常水準。所以—我想您之前提到的3月季度也是如此。這對QTL業務的未來發展來說，會是個新常態嗎？您能解釋為什麼會出現這種情況，以及這種收入水準的持久性嗎？

Sure. So Chris, as you'll recall, in the March quarter, the market was down approximately 21% because of the impact of COVID, and June quarter was 20%. Our forecast, our planning assumption going into the September quarter, was down 15%. And really, what happened is we saw a rebound, especially in emerging markets. We're following a couple quarters of lower demand, because of COVID, the demand went up, and we ended the quarter down approximately 5%. So that was kind of the key driver for our performance in the September quarter. And in addition, we saw a stronger OEM mix that helped QTL a bit as well. So that's kind of the data point for our results for the September quarter at $1.5 billion.

當然。克里斯，你應該還記得，受新冠疫情影響，3月季度市場下跌了約21%，6月季度下跌了20%。我們對9月季度的預測，也就是我們的計畫假設，是下跌15%。但實際上，我們看到了反彈，尤其是在新興市場。由於新冠疫情，我們經歷了幾個季度的需求低迷，之後需求回升，最終導致本季末的銷售額下降了約5%。這可以說是我們9月季度業績的關鍵驅動因素。此外，我們的OEM組合更加強勁，這也對QTL有所幫助。所以，這可以說是我們9月季度業績達到15億美元的數據點。

Our forward guidance of $1.7 billion midpoint for QTL is really kind of just projecting that same market impact, the 5% market impact that we saw year-over-year in the September quarter, projecting it forward into the December quarter and then into the March quarter, and that's the basis for the numbers we provided.

我們對 QTL 中點 17 億美元的前瞻性指引實際上只是預測了相同的市場影響，即我們在 9 月季度看到的同比 5% 的市場影響，並將其預測到 12 月季度，然後是 3 月季度，這就是我們提供的數字的基礎。

As you think about kind of the full year forecast for it, for QTL, using the September quarter number, along with the December quarter and the March quarter guidance, that's a good way to project the year.

當您考慮對 QTL 進行全年預測時，請使用 9 月份季度的數字以及 12 月份季度和 3 月份季度的指引，這是預測全年業績的好方法。

Got it. A follow-up question is on the RF front-end business. And if you could provide some color now. I know that millimeter-wave is an important part of that business for you. It's something you've talked about a lot. Could you help us to quantify how much millimeter-wave has been contributing to the RF front-end business? Sort of what's the content increase that you're anticipating for millimeter-wave? And then now that we've seen millimeter-wave kind of do what you said in terms of being a must-have on flagship handsets, what's the potential for that proliferating around the world and becoming a must-have in other geographies?

明白了。接下來的問題是關於射頻前端業務的。能否提供一些細節？我知道毫米波是你們業務的重要組成部分，你們也經常談論這個話題。您能否量化一下毫米波對射頻前端業務的貢獻？您預期毫米波的內容成長會是多少？現在我們已經看到毫米波已經像您所說的那樣成為旗艦手機的必備功能，那麼它在全球範圍內普及並成為其他地區必備功能的可能性有多大？

Yes. So Chris, I'll take the first part of the question, and then Cristiano can follow-up. Just from a breakdown of technologies across our RF front-end revenue base, we're obviously not providing that. But you should not really think of our revenue being driven by millimeter-wave. We have a broad portfolio of technologies, 4G, 5G sub-6 and 5G millimeter wave. And our design traction reflects the strength of our portfolio, so it's really across all those technologies.

是的。克里斯，我先回答問題的第一部分，然後克里斯蒂亞諾可以跟進。僅從我們射頻前端收入基礎的技術細分來看，我們顯然沒有提供這種技術。但你不應該真的認為我們的收入是由毫米波驅動的。我們擁有廣泛的技術組合，包括4G、5G sub-6GHz和5G毫米波。我們的設計吸引力反映了我們產品組合的實力，所以它實際上涵蓋了所有這些技術。

Yes. So this is Cristiano. So first, I want to just build on what Akash just said. We're even starting to win some 4G content in RF front-end as well and especially some of the sub-6 frequency starts to get converted into 5G. So we're excited about, I think, how broad of -- and diverse is our RF front-end businesses. Specifically at the millimeter wave, it does add a lot more content. So it's probably what drive a little higher on our average 1.5 multiplier, if you remember. And where we're happy about it is significant data points that continue to show the potential for growth. In addition of being a requirement for markets such as United States, Japan, DOCOMO launched millimeter-wave services back in September. Korea, still tracking to launch service. And we have now 130 operators globally investing in millimeter-wave. And especially, as we see price point of devices, as you saw in the United States, becoming a very reasonable with millimeter-wave, that opportunity for attach is going to be a significant tailwind for our business.

是的，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。首先，我想基於阿卡什剛才所說的內容。我們甚至開始在射頻前端贏得一些 4G 業務，尤其是一些 6GHz 以下頻段開始轉換為 5G。因此，我認為我們對射頻前端業務的廣泛性和多樣性感到非常興奮。特別是在毫米波領域，它確實增加了更多的業務內容。所以，如果你還記得的話，這可能是我們平均 1.5 倍增器略高的動力。讓我們感到高興的是，重要的數據點繼續顯示出成長潛力。除了滿足美國、日本等市場的需求外，DOCOMO 早在 9 月就推出了毫米波服務。韓國仍在計劃推出相關服務。現在，全球有 130 家業者在投資毫米波。尤其是，正如您在美國看到的那樣，隨著毫米波的應用，設備的價格變得非常合理，這種連接機會將對我們的業務產生重大推動作用。

And then maybe just to add a quick comment. I think for millimeter-wave, really, what has happened is we outlined a vision a year ago of how the technology deployment will play out, and really, everything is happening consistent with what we had outlined. And so we're very happy to see that.

然後我再簡單補充一下。我認為，對於毫米波來說，實際上，我們在一年前就勾勒出了技術部署的願景，而現在，一切都在按照我們當時的規劃進行。我們很高興看到這一點。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I think a question I get the most is just the sustainability of handset builds. Obviously, it's been very robust. It seems like there's some investment to try to take share away from Huawei, and yet, Huawei still has inventory still shipping. So can you just generally characterize that handset environment and the inventory environment that you're in heading into the strongest part of the year?

我想我最常被問到的一個問題就是手機生產的可持續性。顯然，它一直非常強勁。似乎有一些投資試圖從華為手中奪走市場份額，但華為仍然有庫存在出貨。那麼，您能否概括地描述一下，在進入今年最強勁的時期之前，您們所處的手機市場環境和庫存環境？

Yes. Hi, this is Akash. So we're seeing some minor elevated demand across certain OEMs, given the uncertainty of the OEM mix, especially in China and how things play out, so that's already contemplated in our forecast.

是的。大家好，我是 Akash。鑑於原始設備製造商（OEM）組合的不確定性，尤其是在中國，以及事態發展如何，我們看到某些原始設備製造商的需求略有上升，因此我們的預測中已經考慮到了這一點。

As we look forward -- and in our forward commentary as well. As we look forward, we expect some uncertainty over the next few months. But really, when you step back from that and just look at overall design win pipeline and customer traction, it's really very consistent with the comment Cristiano made earlier, where our technologies and our portfolio are really set up to take benefit from it, whether it's Huawei, who -- if we're allowed to ship to them, or if other OEMs pick up that share.

展望未來——以及我們的前瞻性評論中也是如此。展望未來，我們預計未來幾個月會有一些不確定性。但實際上，當你退一步來看，只看整體設計贏單管道和客戶吸引力時，你會發現這與克里斯蒂亞諾之前的評論非常一致，我們的技術和產品組合確實能夠從中受益，無論是華為——如果我們被允許向他們發貨，還是其他原始設備製造商獲得這一份額。

Okay. Great. And then are you guys constrained at all on foundry capacity? Are there any supply constraints that we should be aware of?

好的。太好了。那麼你們的代工產能是否受到限制？是否存在我們應該注意的供應限制？

Joe, this is Cristiano. We're very diversified from a supply standpoint. I think we're probably one of the few companies that have leading now the supply diversity. We are all seeing demand upside. We're driving a lot of our supply. And I will say that probably, you're going to see some tightness of supply as we have this peak of demand, but we feel good about how we look about the year in 2021.

喬，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。從供應角度來看，我們的業務非常多元化。我認為我們可能是目前在供應多元化方面處於領先地位的少數幾家公司之一。我們都看到了需求的上升。我們正在大力推動供應成長。我想說的是，隨著需求達到頂峰，你可能會看到供應略微緊張，但我們對2021年的前景感到樂觀。

Next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

I just want to follow-up on Joe's question. Just kind of curious, as you look at the builds you're seeing today and then kind of the visibility on models. I think people have looked at some of the stats from the China market saying it's already 60% 5G. Kind of just curious, with these builds, the strong builds you're seeing now, if you had any perspective where we're at in that adoption curve of 5G already? And then kind of just trying to parse it together, you're not getting MSM guidance anymore, but I mean, are we already pretty close to that kind of run rate for 5G on a quarterly basis?

我想繼續回答喬的問題。我有點好奇，看看你今天看到的這些新機，以及這些機型的可見度。我想大家已經看過中國市場的一些數據，說現在5G已經佔了60%。我只是有點好奇，考慮到這些新機，以及你現在看到的強勁成長，你是否認為我們現在處於5G普及曲線的哪個階段？然後試著綜合分析一下，你現在不再獲得主流媒體的指導了，但我的意思是，我們按季度計算，5G的運行率是否已經非常接近這個水平了？

Blayne, this is Cristiano. When you think about China market, we're very happy because the price points of 5G became very aggressive, and we saw that even starting in the last quarter, and that's driving probably more than 50% of all the new activations and all of the new phone launches with 5G.

布萊恩，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。說到中國市場，我們非常高興，因為5G的價格已經非常具有競爭力，我們從上個季度就開始看到這種趨勢，這可能推動了所有新激活量和所有新推出的5G手機的50%以上。

We like that position. As Akash outlined in the prior question, we're very well hedged regardless of who wins in the marketplace. And we expect the China-accelerated transition of 5G with lower price points to have an impact in how we're going to see this unfolding in emerging markets as China provide a lot of the handsets for emerging markets as well.

我們喜歡這個定位。正如Akash在上一個問題中提到的，無論誰在市場上勝出，我們都擁有非常完善的對沖策略。我們預計，中國加速推動的5G轉型及其更低的價格將對新興市場的5G發展產生影響，因為中國也為新興市場提供了大量的手機。

And then also just to add, that we are providing an additional data point on the 5G side on the total size of the market for 2021. We are forecasting a range of 450 million to 550 million devices, which really, when you look at a year-over-year basis, that's 150% growth. So extremely strong growth going into it. And as we exit the calendar year 2020, we're seeing that velocity going into '21.

另外，補充一點，我們提供了2021年5G市場總規模的額外數據。我們預測5G設備數量將在4.5億到5.5億之間，年比來看，增加了150%。這是一個非常強勁的成長勢頭。隨著2020年的結束，我們預計2021年的成長速度將持續下去。

And then a follow-up. Just really appreciate the segment detail. When you look at IoT, you answered why it's spiking up so much. I'd be curious to know a little bit more about the history of that segment. It looks like you kind of model it back to the details you gave, it's been running around $700 million a quarter. So I'm just trying to put in perspective the strength you're seeing here, and how to think about it going forward. Obviously, everybody is seeing a big work-from-home push. But as you move forward, does some of that roll off? Or has this business been at higher levels prior? Just any context would be great.

然後是後續問題。非常感謝您對細分市場的細節描述。您談到物聯網時，回答了它為何如此迅猛增長。我很想知道更多關於該細分市場的歷史。看起來您根據您提供的細節對其進行了建模，它每季的營運規模約為7億美元。所以我只是想客觀地分析您目前看到的強勁勢頭，以及如何展望未來。顯然，每個人都看到了在家工作的巨大推動力。但隨著業務的推進，這種勢頭會有所減弱嗎？還是說這項業務之前就處於更高的水準？任何背景資訊都值得關注。

Yes. So if you look at the disclosure we have on our website, we're providing detail for fiscal '19 on an annual basis and '20 on a quarterly basis. And so I think there's enough data there for you to kind of come up with some trends on the business.

是的。如果你查看我們網站上的披露信息，會發現我們提供了2019財年的年度數據和2020財年的季度數據。所以我認為這些數據足夠讓你了解一些業務趨勢。

And then maybe I'll go back to our Analyst Day commentary last year, we outlined growth and a vision forecast for the IoT segment. And so you could think about it the same way, where you'll be able to look at how the SAM grows and the parts of that SAM that we are interested in and how that grows, and that would be a good way of thinking about the long-term opportunity.

然後，我或許可以回顧一下我們去年分析師日的評論，當時我們概述了物聯網領域的成長和願景預測。因此，您可以用同樣的方式思考，您將能夠了解 SAM 如何成長，以及我們感興趣的 SAM 部分及其成長方式，這將是思考長期機會的好方法。

Blayne, it's Cristiano. If I could add some qualitative comments. As you pointed out, there is this enterprise transformation of the home. It's driving a lot of connectivity. You also have an accelerated digital transformation. But most importantly, you have 5G going to other industries. So this business and what it is today is probably a good proxy of a growth business for us as we realize this vision of 5G and other industries going forward.

布萊恩，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。我想補充一些定性的評論。正如您所指出的，家庭正在經歷企業轉型。它正在推動大量的互聯互通。數位轉型也在加速。但最重要的是，5G正在走向其他產業。因此，隨著我們實現5G和其他產業未來發展的願景，這項業務及其目前的狀況很可能是我們業務成長的良好代表。

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Congrats on the strong results. The first one is -- I think everybody appreciates the end market splits that you're going to have. But before the MSMs and the revenue per MSMs disappear for good, it's great to see that you've gotten it back above $30 on the revenue per MSM side.

恭喜您取得如此強勁的業績。首先，我想大家都很欣賞你們即將實現的終端市場分成。但在MSM和每MSM收入徹底消失之前，很高興看到你們的每MSM收入已經回到30美元以上。

I just wanted to dive into, looking forward, does the 1.5x content framework continue? Or is that $30 largely capturing it? And really, I guess, what I'm getting at is if you're going to have 150% increase in your 5G units next year, is that going to be a tailwind on both the unit and the revenue per MSM side? Or more so one than the other?

我只是想深入探討一下，展望未來，1.5倍的內容框架會持續下去嗎？還是說30美元的漲幅就足以覆蓋整個成長？實際上，我想問的是，如果明年你們的5G出貨量成長150%，這會對出貨量和每MSM收入都產生推動作用嗎？還是說，其中一方的推動作用更大？

Well, from a unit perspective, Ross, it's really kind of the 4G margin market transitioning over to 5G, right? So it's less of a unit growth story. It's really a transition between technologies. And then within 5G, the framework we still think applies. So there is a benefit on the core chipset side and then there's the incremental RF opportunity on top of it.

羅斯，從單位數量的角度來看，這實際上就像4G利潤市場向5G的過渡，對吧？所以這與其說是一個單位成長的故事，不如說是一個技術之間的過渡。在5G領域，我們認為這個框架仍然適用。因此，核心晶片組方面有優勢，此外還有增量射頻機會。

Great. I guess for my follow-up, I want to switch over to the margin side of things. You talked, Akash, a little bit about the OpEx for the fourth quarter or the calendar fourth quarter, then the calendar first quarter. You said it'd go up a little bit. Now that you've hit or exceeded your targets, especially on the QCT side for EBT. Any sort of idea of how we should think for fiscal '21 or calendar '21 about the general trends on the OpEx side of the equation?

好的。我想接下來我想談談利潤率方面的問題。 Akash，您剛才談到了第四季度或日曆年第四季度的營運支出，然後是日曆年第一季的營運支出。您說會略有上升。現在您已經達到或超越了目標，尤其是在QCT（即稅前利潤）方面。能談談21財年或日曆年營運支出的整體趨勢嗎？

Yes. So I mean, first of all, we're very happy to see -- as revenue has grown, we're seeing the leverage -- operating margin leverage show up in our numbers, so happy to see that in the fourth quarter and the first quarter.

是的。首先，我們很高興看到——隨著收入的成長，我們的業績也反映出了槓桿效應——營業利潤率槓桿效應，很高興在第四季和第一季看到這一點。

As we look forward, I think you have data points for both of those quarters, first quarter, and then we gave a soft guidance for the following quarter. It's very reasonable to use those 2 data points to project forward for the OpEx for the year.

展望未來，我認為您已經掌握了第一季和下一季的數據點，並且我們對下一季給出了一個軟性預期。使用這兩個數據點來預測全年的營運支出是非常合理的。

The other thing I would say is just as we look forward, as Steve outlined in his prepared remarks, there are a lot of opportunities we have for areas for growth in the long term, all organic opportunities. And so we are selectively investing in a few of those consistent with what we said at Analyst Day.

我想說的另一件事是，正如史蒂夫在準備好的演講中所概述的那樣，展望未來，我們有很多長期成長機會，都是內生成長的機會。因此，我們正在選擇性地投資其中一些機會，這與我們在分析師日上所說的一致。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

For my first one, I wanted to dig a little bit into chipset gross margins. I know you don't like actually provide them. But I know last quarter, you gave us a little bit of qualitative color on what to expect. Gross margins in the current quarter and chips were supposed to come down a little because of mix, and I think they did. In December quarter, is it fair to say that your guidance contemplates gross margins at least flattish sequentially even with the slug of revenue coming in and the mix changing somewhat? Is that an accurate statement?

我的第一個問題是，我想深入探討晶片組的毛利率。我知道您不喜歡實際提供數據。但我知道上個季度，您給我們提供了一些定性信息，讓我們了解一下預期情況。由於產品組合的原因，本季和晶片組的毛利率預計會略有下降，我認為確實如此。對於12月季度，即使營收大幅成長且產品組合有所變化，您的預期是否預期毛利率至少會較上季持平？您這樣說準確嗎？

Yes, Stacy. From a gross margin perspective, I mean there really isn't something that we want to highlight on that topic. I think what we have is very consistent trend, and we feel like that's something that holds going forward.

是的，Stacy。從毛利率的角度來看，我們真的不想特別強調這一點。我認為我們目前的趨勢非常穩定，而且我們認為這種趨勢會持續下去。

Got it. For my follow-up, I want to ask about the trajectory of the RF business. Obviously, you had a bunch of RF this quarter. Does all that RF revenue ship together with the rest of the platform? Or does some of that RF revenue like have to get shipped before and go into modules. So I guess what I'm asking is, is some of the RF that you shipped in Q4 actually going into some of the chip platforms that you're booking revenue for in Q1? Or are they all coincident with each other?

明白了。接下來想問一下射頻業務的發展軌跡。顯然，本季你們的射頻業務量很大。所有射頻收入都是和其他平台一起出貨的嗎？還是說，部分射頻收入必須提前出貨，然後用於模組？所以我想問的是，你們在第四季出貨的部分射頻產品，實際上會用於你們在第一季預估營收的晶片平台嗎？還是它們都是同時發生的？

Yes. So just broadly, as you think about our RF business, there's a combination of factors, right? There are times when we make the module ourselves and those modules would, timing-wise, would be aligned with the chipset. If we are shipping components that go into someone else's module, there would be a shift in timing related to it. But really, all those are really timing comments, the fundamental trajectory remains the same.

是的。所以，總的來說，當我們思考我們的射頻業務時，會發現有很多因素，對吧？有時我們會自己生產模組，這些模組在時間上會與晶片組保持一致。如果我們要運送其他模組所需的組件，那麼時間上就會有所偏差。但實際上，所有這些都只是時間上的影響，基本軌跡保持不變。

Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Mitch Steves。

I just have one, just to go back to kind of the QCT breakout here. So if we look at the long-term SAM, I mean, it's kind of low double digits, but then your guidance is significantly higher than that. It looks like '21 is going to be a good year. So how do we think about just modeling correctly, kind of the 4 segments we look out over the implied same targets? I mean, is there a bogey we think about in terms of you guys being able to outgrow that number across the board? Just looking for any sort of details there would be helpful.

我只想提一個問題，回到QCT的突破。如果我們看一下長期SAM，我的意思是，它處於較低的兩位數水平，但你們的指引遠高於這個數字。看起來21年將會是個好年。那麼，我們該如何正確地建模呢？我們如何看待我們關注的四個細分市場，以及隱含的相同目標？我的意思是，就你們能否全面超越這個數字而言，我們是否考慮過一個臨界點？只要能找到任何細節都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think in terms of kind of longer term modeling of each of the segments, we gave some disclosures at Analyst Day. We still think those are very relevant metrics to use to model our businesses.

是的。我認為，就各業務板塊的長期模型而言，我們在分析師日上披露了一些資訊。我們仍然認為這些指標對於我們業務的建模非常相關。

So when you think about RF front-end, we gave a disclosure on greater than 20% of $18 billion SAM. On the auto side, we had given a pretty specific disclosure on our longer-term revenue target. And so that should be instructive. And then really, IoT, it's really more about what's the growth of the SAM addressable market for us? And then what are the components within that market that are growing faster that we'll be able to participate in.

所以，說到射頻前端，我們揭露了180億美元SAM中超過20%的份額。在汽車領域，我們非常具體地揭露了我們的長期收入目標。這應該很有啟發性。至於物聯網，我們真正關心的是SAM潛在市場的成長潛力如何？以及該市場中哪些組件成長更快，我們能夠參與其中。

Our next question comes from Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅德·霍爾。

I wanted to start with the supply chain. And I know that COVID has been ramping up again in certain parts of the world. And some participants in the industry have talked about potential for supply chain disruption again. And I wonder if you guys could just talk a little bit about your thoughts on that? Is your guidance for fiscal Q1 contemplating some disruption? Or do you believe that production is most likely to just continue normally? And then I have a follow-up.

我想先從供應鏈開始。我知道新冠疫情在世界某些地區再次加劇。一些業內人士談到了供應鏈再次中斷的可能性。請問各位能否談談對此的看法？你們對第一財季的預期是否考慮到了一些中斷？還是您認為生產很可能繼續正常進行？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Rod, it's Akash. We're -- our guidance for the quarter is really constrained by what we can supply. And so that's really contemplated in our forecast.

是的。 Rod，我是 Akash。我們本季的業績預期確實受到我們所能供應產品的限制。因此，我們的預測中確實考慮到了這一點。

Okay. Great. And then my follow-up was on -- I wanted to come back to millimeter-wave. In terms of your preference for doing business there. I know you guys have talked about an interest or a willingness anyway to sell components, and we've seen some of the -- a lot of the early millimeter-wave looks like it's that, someone else's module assembly process, your components probably. But then you do also sell your own modules.

好的，太好了。然後我的後續問題是──我想回到毫米波領域。關於你們在毫米波領域開展業務的偏好。我知道你們已經談到了對銷售組件的興趣或意願，而且我們已經看到了一些早期的毫米波產品，很多產品看起來就像是別人的模組組裝流程，很可能是你們的組件。但你們也銷售自己的模組。

So I'm just curious, which of those 2 things you prefer? I mean, is it -- I would think it's preferable to go for the component side of things, and let someone else worry about the module, but I don't know if that really is your preference. Or do you have a preference, one way or another? Just wondering how you want to do that business going forward?

所以我很好奇，您更喜歡這兩者中的哪一種？我的意思是，我認為最好是專注於組件方面，讓其他人來負責模組，但我不知道這是否真的是您的偏好。或者說，您有其他偏好嗎？我只是想知道您未來打算如何開展這項業務？

This is Cristiano. Look, we're very happy about the traction we're having with millimeter-wave. I feel the technology in itself requires a module because you have to have the RF front-end on the transceiver working together side by side. We're flexible. We've been commercializing our silicon within modules as well commercializing our own module. The important is the direction we're having for our customers in general, is that when we provide a complete solution fully validated from a performance standpoint and from a scale standpoint, it saved them a lot of R&D. So we'll continue to maintain the flexibility for our customers as they see value.

我是克里斯蒂亞諾。我們對毫米波技術的發展感到非常高興。我認為這項技術本身就需要一個模組，因為你必須讓收發器上的射頻前端協同工作。我們非常靈活。我們一直在將模組內的矽片商業化，同時也在商業化我們自己的模組。重要的是我們為客戶提供的整體方向，即當我們提供從性能和規模角度都經過充分驗證的完整解決方案時，可以為他們節省大量的研發成本。因此，我們將繼續保持靈活性，以滿足客戶的需求，因為他們認為這種靈活性很有價值。

Our next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 CJ Muse。

I guess for my first question, and thank you for the disclosure on the subsegments. But curious, could you provide some help around how we should think about the PBT margins for each of those relative to the overall QCT business?

我想這是我的第一個問題，感謝您揭露各個細分市場的情況。不過，您能否提供一些幫助，讓我們了解一下，我們該如何看待各個細分市場相對於整體 QCT 業務的稅前利潤率？

I think, CJ, at this point, we're really talking about the portfolio of businesses within QCT. As I'm sure you appreciate, and we've discussed this in the past, one of the core premises of how we are addressing some of the incremental opportunities, and especially auto and IoT, is leveraging technology from mobile. And so it's really kind of 1 set of technology and product pools that we are leveraging across. And so I think it's better to look at the total QCT segment on margins.

CJ，我認為，目前我們真正在談論的是 QCT 的業務組合。我相信您也理解這一點，而且我們之前也討論過這個問題。我們抓住一些增量機會（尤其是汽車和物聯網）的核心前提之一是利用行動技術。因此，我們實際上利用的是一套技術和產品池。所以我認為最好從利潤率的角度來看 QCT 的整體業務。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, there was a question earlier, and you talked about foundry supply constraints. And I guess, curious, what is the impact on the issues around SMIC? And I guess what kind of impact, at least on the near-term side of things, has that had on the pricing that you're getting from foundries because I believe only TSMC has 28-nanometer capacity available. So would love to hear your thoughts, both from a near-term and medium-term perspective on sourcing supply from the various leading-edge foundries.

好的，這很有幫助。接下來，我想問一下，之前有一個問題，您談到了代工廠的供應限制。我很好奇，這對中芯國際的問題有什麼影響？至少在短期內，這對您從代工廠獲得的定價有什麼影響？因為我相信只有台積電擁有28奈米的產能。所以，我很想聽聽您從短期和中期角度對從各家領先的代工廠採購供應的看法。

Yes, sure, CJ. So really, from our foundry strategy is we're very diversified across a lot of different foundries. And so we have close partnerships with all of them. And typically, from a pricing and negotiation perspective, we're typically locked for a reasonable period of time. And so really, I'd say, maybe no impact at this point. We were just operating as we would with our supplier partners.

是的，CJ。實際上，從我們的代工策略來看，我們的代工業務非常多元化，涉及許多不同的代工廠。因此，我們與所有這些代工廠都保持著密切的合作關係。通常情況下，從定價和談判的角度來看，我們通常會在一段合理的時間內鎖定合作。所以，我想說，目前可能沒有影響。我們只是像與供應商合作夥伴一樣運作。

Our final question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。

My first question, I wanted to see if we could -- if I could double-click on the QCT mix. And I'm just wondering if you can give us either in terms of revenue or units, maybe the split between 3G, 4G and 5G? Because if you look at the China government data, about 2/3 of the slide through last month was 5G and about 50% year-to-date, but I'm sort of wondering on -- if you don't want to talk about units, can you talk about QCT in total? And maybe give us a sense of how much 5G is of QCT today?

我的第一個問題，我想看看我們能否－能否雙擊QCT的組成。我想知道您能否提供收入或出貨量的數據，例如3G、4G和5G之間的比例？因為如果您查看中國政府的數據，上個月大約三分之二的下滑是5G，今年迄今約佔50%。但我想問的是——如果您不想談論出貨量，您能否談談QCT的總量？或許可以告訴我們，目前5G在QCT中所佔的比例是多少？

Yes. Tim, probably the best way to think about this is really look at our forecast for total handsets. We're providing a range for calendar 2020 at $200 million. And then going into next year at a range of $450 million to $550 million. And so I think those are reasonable data points to think about mix between 4G and 5G for the market. And then it applies to our business as you think about individual OEMs.

是的。提姆，思考這個問題的最佳方式或許是看看我們對手機總銷售量的預測。我們給的2020年手機總銷售預測範圍是2億美元，明年的預測範圍是4.5億到5.5億美元。所以我認為這些數據點對於理解4G和5G在市場上的混合是合理的。這同樣適用於我們業務，因為您考慮的是單一OEM廠商。

Okay. Okay. And I guess I also wanted to ask about the RF business. It's great that you're actually breaking that out now. And I'm sort of wondering if you could help us maybe with what the attach rate looks like. Because if I just divide the $852 million in September by the $162 million MSM, I get about $5 per unit. I mean, obviously, that's not a very straightforward way to look at it because the attach rate is not 100%. But maybe can you help us think about what the attach rate is right now for the RF business?

好的。好的。我想我還想問一下射頻業務。您現在把這個細分出來真是太好了。我想知道您能否幫我們算一下現在的配售率是多少。因為如果我用9月的8.52億美元除以1.62億美元的MSM，我得到的是每台大約5美元。我的意思是，顯然，這不是一個很直接的計算方法，因為配售率不是100%。但您能否幫我們想想目前射頻業務的配售率是多少？

Yes. As we think about the RF business, really, there's tremendous complexity in that business, right, between which tier of device it is, which OEM, whether it's being designed for a specific geography or multiple geographies between sub-6 and millimeter-wave, the SAM addressable market per device changes quite a bit. And so we try to not think of it as an attach rate business. Rather, we think of it as available addressable market, and we try to maximize our position within that.

是的。說到射頻業務，我們確實會發現它極其複雜，無論是哪一層設備、哪家原始設備製造商 (OEM)，無論是針對特定地區還是 6 波段以下到毫米波之間的多個地區設計，每台設備的 SAM 目標市場都會發生很大變化。因此，我們盡量不把它看作是一個附加率業務。相反，我們把它看作是一個可用的目標市場，並努力在其中最大化我們的地位。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

今天的問答環節到此結束。莫倫科普夫先生，在結束會議之前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just a thank you to the employees. I think this quarter, probably more than any quarter I can think of, really demonstrates the strength of not only the businesses and the products that we're working on. But also, I would say the culture of the company and its ability to keep things on track in a very difficult time. So thank you very much for your hard work. It's great to see recognition of that in the market and keep it going. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.

是的。只是想感謝員工們。我認為這個季度，或許比我能想到的任何一個季度都更能展現我們不僅業務和產品實力，而且我想說，也展現了公司的文化以及在非常困難的時期保持業務正常運轉的能力。非常感謝你們的辛勤工作。很高興看到市場對此的認可，並繼續保持下去。非常感謝。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。