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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. We do apologize for the delay in starting today. My name is Christina, and I will be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Power Integrations Q3 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).
謝謝你的支持。對於今天開始的延遲,我們深表歉意。我叫克里斯蒂娜,我將擔任您的會議操作員。現在,我歡迎大家參加 Power Integrations 第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。
I would now like to turn the floor over to Joe Shiffler, Director of Investor Relations. Joe, you may begin your conference.
我現在想請投資者關係總監 Joe Shiffler 發言。喬,你可以開始你的會議了。
Joe Shiffler - Director of IR & Corporate Communications
Joe Shiffler - Director of IR & Corporate Communications
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. With me on the call today are Balu Balakrishnan, Chairman and CEO of Power Integrations; and Sandeep Nayyar, our Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝。大家下午好。感謝您加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 Power Integrations 董事長兼執行長 Balu Balakrishnan;以及我們的財務長桑迪普‧內亞爾 (Sandeep Nayyar)。
During the call, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to GAAP. Non-GAAP measures for the third quarter exclude stock-based compensation expenses, amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets and the tax effects of these items. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.
在電話會議中,我們將參考未根據 GAAP 計算的財務指標。第三季的非公認會計準則指標不包括股票補償費用、收購相關無形資產攤銷、這些項目的稅務影響。今天的新聞稿中包含了非公認會計原則措施與我們的公認會計原則結果的調節。
Our discussion today, including the Q&A session, will include forward-looking statements denoted by words like will, would, believe, should, expect, outlook, vision, view, forecast, anticipate, prospects and similar expressions that look toward future events or performance. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. Such risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our most recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 7, 2023.
我們今天的討論,包括問答環節,將包括前瞻性陳述,用諸如意願、將、相信、應該、期望、前景、願景、觀點、預測、預期、前景和展望未來事件或業績的類似表達方式表示。此類陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。今天的新聞稿以及我們於 2023 年 2 月 7 日向 SEC 提交的最新 10-K 表格中討論了此類風險和不確定性。
Finally, this call is the property of Power Integrations, and any recording or rebroadcast is expressly prohibited about the written consent of Power Integrations. Now I'll turn it over to Balu.
最後,本次通話屬於 Power Integrations 的財產,未經 Power Integrations 書面同意,明確禁止任何錄音或轉播。現在我把它交給Balu。
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon. Third quarter revenues were up 2% from the prior quarter but came in at the low end of our guidance range at $125 million. And for the fourth quarter, we expect a sequential decrease to $90 million at the midpoint of the range.
謝謝你,喬,下午好。第三季營收較上一季成長 2%,但處於我們指引範圍的下限,為 1.25 億美元。對於第四季度,我們預計將季減至 9,000 萬美元,處於該範圍的中點。
Our results and outlook largely reflects the broad-based weakness cited by many of our peers this earnings season. In the industrial category, we are seeing strength in renewable energy, thanks to recent design wins, but the broader industrial market has weakened as several of our peers have noted.
我們的業績和前景在很大程度上反映了許多同業在本財報季提到的普遍疲軟。在工業領域,由於最近的設計勝利,我們看到了可再生能源的實力,但正如我們的一些同行所指出的那樣,更廣泛的工業市場已經疲軟。
The appliance market, which now accounts for about 1/4 of our revenues has been affected by the slowdown in home sales and the residual effects of the pandemic when many appliance purchases were pulled forward.
目前約占我們收入1/4的家電市場受到房屋銷售放緩和疫情後遺症的影響,許多家電採購被推遲。
We also had an unexpected cancellation late in the quarter, affecting both third quarter revenues and fourth quarter backlog in the computer and communications categories. We believe this reflects efforts on part of an OEM to reduce charger and component inventories.
我們也在本季末意外取消了訂單,影響了第三季的營收和第四季電腦和通訊類別的積壓訂單。我們認為這反映了 OEM 為減少充電器和組件庫存所做的努力。
Notwithstanding the short-term outlook, we continue to see strong design activity and design wins that position us well for the eventual upturn in demand, and we feel as good as ever about our long-term growth prospects. We are on track to double our addressable market by 2027, driven by electric vehicles, motor drives, renewable energy, expanding dollar content and a host of upcoming products featuring our proprietary GaN technology.
儘管存在短期前景,但我們繼續看到強勁的設計活動和設計勝利,這使我們能夠為最終的需求回升做好準備,並且我們對長期成長前景一如既往地感到滿意。在電動車、馬達驅動、再生能源、不斷擴大的美元含量以及一系列採用我們專有 GaN 技術的即將推出的產品的推動下,我們預計在 2027 年將我們的潛在市場翻一番。
We are full speed ahead on GaN development, more confident than ever that GaN will not only overtake silicon as a technology of choice for most high-voltage applications, but will also be a more cost-effective and greener alternative to silicon carbide over the long term. Most GaN suppliers rely on the technology of a single foundry, leaving little room for differentiation and affording them no control over technology road map. Our GaN is proprietary, which means that we not only control the road map, but also that we can tailor our GaN switch for optimal system performance in each application.
我們正在全速推進GaN 開發,比以往任何時候都更有信心,GaN 不僅將取代矽成為大多數高壓應用的首選技術,而且從長遠來看也將成為碳化矽的更具成本效益和更環保的替代品學期。大多數GaN供應商依賴單一代工廠的技術,幾乎沒有留下差異化的空間,無法控制技術路線圖。我們的 GaN 是專有的,這意味著我們不僅可以控制路線圖,而且還可以客製化 GaN 開關,以在每個應用中實現最佳系統性能。
Our GaN technology is also unique with characteristics that make it better suited for higher voltages than any other technology in the market today. In March, we introduced a 900-volt version of our GaN InnoSwitch products. And last week, we took the next step on the road map with our latest InnoSwitch featuring a 1,250-volt GaN switch.
我們的 GaN 技術也是獨一無二的,其特性使其比當今市場上的任何其他技術更適合更高的電壓。今年 3 月,我們推出了 GaN InnoSwitch 產品的 900 伏特版本。上週,我們在路線圖上邁出了下一步,推出了採用 1,250 伏特 GaN 開關的最新 InnoSwitch。
Higher voltage InnoSwitch ICs are ideal for many industrial applications and for geographies with unstable mains voltages as well as power supplies in 400-volt electric vehicles. These higher voltage GaN technologies will also enable us to expand our SAM with new products that address higher power applications up to 10 kilowatts. Such as EV onboard chargers and DC-to-DC converters and a range of industrial applications.
更高電壓的 InnoSwitch IC 非常適合許多工業應用以及電源電壓不穩定的地區以及 400 伏特電動車的電源。這些更高電壓的 GaN 技術也將使我們能夠透過新產品擴展我們的 SAM,以滿足高達 10 千瓦的更高功率應用。例如電動車車載充電器和 DC-DC 轉換器以及一系列工業應用。
Many of these applications are served today by silicon carbide because there is no viable alternative that delivers the necessary level of efficiency. However, we have products in our pipeline that will offer system-level GaN solution at a much higher level of performance than silicon carbide.
如今,許多此類應用均由碳化矽提供服務,因為沒有可行的替代方案可以提供必要的效率水準。然而,我們的產品線中的產品將提供系統級 GaN 解決方案,其性能水平比碳化矽高得多。
GaN is fundamentally more cost-effective than silicon carbide because it uses lower-cost raw materials and requires a tiny fraction of the energy needed to produce silicon carbide, which is processed at extremely high temperatures. That also makes GaN a more sustainable technology than silicon carbide, which squanders a portion of the efficiency benefits in its own manufacture.
氮化鎵從根本上比碳化矽更具成本效益,因為它使用成本更低的原料,並且只需要生產碳化矽所需的一小部分能量,而碳化矽是在極高的溫度下加工的。這也使得氮化鎵成為比碳化矽更永續的技術,而碳化矽在自己的製造上浪費了部分效率優勢。
Our GaN road map does not end at 1250 volts. We expect to introduce even higher voltage GaN in the near future, and our vision includes potential to drive GaN beyond 10 kilowatts, making it a viable replacement for silicon carbide in a wider range of applications.
我們的 GaN 路線圖不止於 1250 伏特。我們預計在不久的將來推出更高電壓的 GaN,我們的願景包括將 GaN 驅動至 10 千瓦以上的潛力,使其成為更廣泛應用中碳化矽的可行替代品。
While pushing GaN beyond 10 kilowatts is a longer-term proposition, our current GaN products are making significant gains in power supplies. We won more than a dozen smartphone and notebook designs in Q3, including a 100-watt in-box designed for a top notebook OEM which uses our HiperPFS-5 power factor chip in tandem with InnoSwitch, both incorporating GaN switches.
雖然將 GaN 推向 10 千瓦以上是一個長期主張,但我們目前的 GaN 產品在電源方面取得了顯著的進步。我們在第三季度贏得了十多個智慧型手機和筆記型電腦設計,包括為頂級筆記型電腦OEM 設計的100 瓦盒內設計,它使用我們的HiperPFS-5 功率因數晶片與InnoSwitch,兩者都採用了GaN開關。
We won an even greater number of GaN designs in nonmobile applications including a multimillion dollar design for a new platform at a top European appliance OEM as well as designs in home automation, lighting, audio and industrial controls.
我們贏得了更多非行動應用中的 GaN 設計,包括歐洲頂級家電 OEM 的新平台價值數百萬美元的設計,以及家庭自動化、照明、音訊和工業控制領域的設計。
GaN also features prominently in our road map for motor drive products and will enable us to more than double the addressable market for our BridgeSwitch products. Meanwhile, current BridgeSwitch products, which incorporate our proprietary silicon FREDFET technology, continue to win designs despite strong headwinds in the appliance market.
GaN 在我們的馬達驅動產品路線圖中也佔有重要地位,將使我們能夠將 BridgeSwitch 產品的潛在市場擴大一倍以上。同時,儘管家電市場面臨強勁阻力,但目前的 BridgeSwitch 產品採用了我們專有的矽 FREDFET 技術,繼續贏得設計的青睞。
In addition to exceptional efficiency in active mode, BridgeSwitch offers very low standby consumption, which is attracting strong interest from appliance customers in light of upcoming changes in the European Ecodesign standards.
除了活動模式下的卓越效率外,BridgeSwitch 還提供非常低的待機功耗,鑑於歐洲生態設計標準即將發生變化,這吸引了家電客戶的強烈興趣。
As we mentioned last quarter, the allowable standby consumption for a wide range of electronic products will be reduced beginning in 2025, and we expect the new standards to be especially impactful in the appliance market.
正如我們上季度所提到的,從 2025 年開始,多種電子產品的允許待機功耗將會降低,我們預期新標準將對家電市場產生特別大的影響。
The low standby performance of BridgeSwitch perfectly complements our EcoSmart technology, which has helped us win a dominant share in the appliance auxiliary power supplies. In September, we introduced our latest EcoSmart product, LinkSwitch-XT2 SR, which offers no-load consumption of less than 5 milliwatts. In Q3, we won a design at a top European customer for chipsets combining LinkSwitch-XT2 SR and BridgeSwitch in a refrigerator compressor scheduled to begin production in the middle of 2024.
BridgeSwitch的低待機性能與我們的EcoSmart技術完美互補,幫助我們在家電輔助電源領域贏得了主導份額。 9 月,我們推出了最新的 EcoSmart 產品 LinkSwitch-XT2 SR,其空載功耗低於 5 毫瓦。第三季度,我們贏得了歐洲頂級客戶的設計,將 LinkSwitch-XT2 SR 和 BridgeSwitch 結合在冰箱壓縮機中,計劃於 2024 年中期開始生產。
At a higher level, customer interest in our products has never been stronger. On last quarter's call, we said that we had added more potential revenue to our design pipeline than any quarter in our history. And we beat that record again in the third quarter. This reflects the broader range of applications we are addressing, and our rising dollar content as evidenced by the fact that our average selling price has increased by almost 70% over the past 6 years.
在更高的層面上,客戶對我們產品的興趣從未如此強烈。在上個季度的電話會議上,我們表示,我們的設計管道增加的潛在收入比歷史上任何一個季度都多。我們在第三季再次打破了這項紀錄。這反映了我們正在解決的應用範圍更廣泛,以及我們的美元含量不斷上升,過去 6 年我們的平均售價上漲了近 70%,這一事實證明了這一點。
And we are well positioned for growth once demand returns, thanks to recent design wins, including a Q3 design win that will give us a significant role in India's 5G fixed wireless rollout which is expected to ramp over the next several years.
一旦需求恢復,我們就可以實現成長,這要歸功於最近的設計勝利,包括第三季度的設計勝利,這將使我們在印度5G 固定無線網路的部署中發揮重要作用,預計該網路將在未來幾年內不斷發展。
Finally, we demonstrated the superior efficiency and ruggedness of GaN InnoSwitch ICs last month in the Bridgestone World Solar Challenge, where we co-sponsored a team of engineering students in a race across the Australian outback in a solar-powered car.
最後,我們在上個月的普利司通世界太陽能挑戰賽中展示了 GaN InnoSwitch IC 的卓越效率和耐用性,當時我們共同贊助了一支工程專業學生團隊,駕駛太陽能汽車穿越澳洲內陸地區。
With the help of our applications team, the racers implemented a DC-to-DC converter that achieved almost 96% efficiency at full power and a 50% improvement in light load efficiency compared to an earlier solution, greatly reducing the car's energy use. I'm happy to report that of the nearly 30 entrants in the race, Powi sponsored team was 1 of only 12 to complete the 7-day 300-kilometer journey.
在我們應用團隊的幫助下,賽車手們實施了一款DC-DC 轉換器,與早期的解決方案相比,該轉換器在全功率下實現了近96% 的效率,輕載效率提高了50 %,從而大大降低了汽車的能源消耗。我很高興地向大家報告,在近 30 名參賽者中,Powi 贊助的車隊是完成 7 天 300 公里旅程的 12 支車隊中的一支。
To conclude, in spite of the tough demand environment, our long-term outlook is unchanged, and we are focused on what we control, sticking to the playbook we have followed in every downturn. We are keeping inventory elevated to retain foundry capacity and to be ready for the strong upturn, knowing that we will be among the first to see the turn when it comes.
總而言之,儘管需求環境嚴峻,但我們的長期前景並沒有改變,我們專注於我們所控制的事情,堅持我們在每次低迷時期遵循的策略。我們保持較高的庫存水平,以保留代工產能,並為強勁的復甦做好準備,因為我們知道,當復甦到來時,我們將是最先看到復甦的人之一。
We are managing expenses prudently but investing in the products and technologies that will drive our long-term growth, such as GaN, automotive, motor drive and our next-generation gate drivers. And we are buying back our stock when it's down and growing our dividend, knowing that we will continue to generate strong cash flow as revenues recover.
我們謹慎管理開支,但投資於將推動我們長期成長的產品和技術,例如 GaN、汽車、馬達驅動和下一代閘極驅動器。我們在股票下跌時回購股票並增加股息,因為我們知道隨著收入的恢復,我們將繼續產生強勁的現金流。
With that, I will turn it over to Sandeep for a review of the financials.
這樣,我會將其交給桑迪普(Sandeep)進行財務審查。
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Thanks, Balu, and good afternoon. In face of the weak demand environment, we are managing expenses prudently while continuing to invest in the opportunities that will drive our long-term growth. We are also moderating our manufacturing volumes but as always, we are cognizant of maintaining foundry capacity and having inventory to respond to an upturn when it comes.
謝謝巴魯,下午好。面對疲軟的需求環境,我們審慎管理開支,同時持續投資於推動長期成長的機會。我們也在調整我們的製造量,但一如既往,我們認識到要維持代工產能,並擁有庫存以應對經濟復甦。
Revenues for the third quarter were $125.5 million, up 2% from the prior quarter and down 22% year-over-year. On a sequential basis, the communication category was up mid-teens, driven by design wins and channel restocking associated with the China handset market. Chinese OEMs, their charger ODMs and distributors have run at unsustainably low levels of inventory over the past several quarters, and we view the restocking as a further sign of normalization in that market.
第三季營收為 1.255 億美元,季增 2%,年減 22%。在與中國手機市場相關的設計勝利和管道補貨的推動下,通訊類別環比增長了十幾歲。過去幾個季度,中國原始設備製造商、充電器原始設計製造商和分銷商的庫存水準一直處於不可持續的低水平,我們認為補貨是市場正常化的進一步跡象。
The industrial category was also up mid-teens sequentially driven by high-power, where we have seen strong growth in utility-scale solar. Automotive, while still small, was also up from the prior quarter. Computer revenues were down more than 30% sequentially, driven by tablets and to a lesser extent, notebooks and aftermarket charges. Consumer revenues were down mid-single digits, driven mainly by seasonality in air conditioning and the continued softness in the overall appliance market.
在高功率的推動下,工業類別也連續成長了十幾歲,我們看到公用事業規模太陽能的強勁成長。汽車產業雖然規模仍較小,但也較上一季成長。受平板電腦以及筆記型電腦和售後市場費用的推動,電腦收入環比下降了 30% 以上。消費者收入下降了中個位數,這主要是由於空調的季節性和整體家電市場的持續疲軟。
Revenue mix for the quarter was 32% industrial, 32% communication, 26% consumer and 10% computer. Non-GAAP gross margin of 53.3% was modestly below our expectation due to end market mix, but nevertheless increased by 150 basis points from the prior quarter driven by manufacturing efficiency and the weaker yen.
本季的收入結構為 32% 工業、32% 通訊、26% 消費者和 10% 計算機。由於終端市場的混合,非公認會計準則毛利率為 53.3%,略低於我們的預期,但在製造效率和日圓疲軟的推動下,仍比上一季增加了 150 個基點。
Distribution inventory ended at 11.6 week, up 1.5 weeks from the prior quarter driven primarily by the channel restocking for China handset customers, as mentioned earlier, while distributors for other end markets remain at elevated levels due to weaker sell-through. However, we did see a reduction in channel inventories in October.
分銷庫存期末為11.6 週,較上一季增加1.5 週,這主要是由於中國手機客戶的通路補貨所致(如前所述),而其他終端市場的分銷商由於銷量疲軟而仍處於較高水平。不過,我們確實看到 10 月份渠道庫存減少。
Non-GAAP operating expenses for the quarter were $41.8 million, down more than $2 million sequentially and well below our forecast as we continue to adjust the pace of hiring and manage discretionary spending carefully.
本季非 GAAP 營運費用為 4,180 萬美元,比上一季減少超過 200 萬美元,遠低於我們的預測,因為我們繼續調整招聘步伐並謹慎管理可自由支配支出。
Non-GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 20%, up almost 4 points from the prior quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.46 per diluted share, up $0.10 from the prior quarter.
本季非 GAAP 營業利益率為 20%,較上一季成長近 4 個百分點。非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 0.46 美元,比上一季增加 0.10 美元。
Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $26.7 million. Inventory dollars on the balance sheet were essentially flat from the prior quarter and rose by 4 days to 230 days at the end of quarter end.
該季度營運現金流為 2,670 萬美元。資產負債表上的庫存美元與上一季基本持平,季末增加了 4 天,達到 230 天。
Uses of cash during the quarter included $8 million for CapEx, $11 million for dividends and $2 million for share repurchases. The buyback at $73 million remaining at quarter end and has been significantly more active since the end of the quarter as dictated by our preset price-volume matrix. As noted in our press release, our Board has increased the quarterly dividend to $0.20 per share beginning with the fourth quarter payout in December.
本季的現金使用包括 800 萬美元用於資本支出、1,100 萬美元用於股息和 200 萬美元用於股票回購。截至季末,回購金額仍為 7,300 萬美元,根據我們預設的價量矩陣,自本季末以來,回購活動明顯更加活躍。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的,我們的董事會從 12 月第四季派息開始,將季度股息提高至每股 0.20 美元。
Turning to the outlook. We expect revenues for the fourth quarter to be $90 million, plus or minus $5 million. Non-GAAP gross margin should be similar to the Q3 level of 53.3%. Non-GAAP operating expenses should be around $42.5 million. That puts us on a course for a full year expense growth of only 3% despite this year's high inflation. Finally, I expect non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be around 7%.
轉向前景。我們預計第四季的營收為 9,000 萬美元,上下浮動 500 萬美元。非 GAAP 毛利率應與第三季 53.3% 的水平相似。非 GAAP 營運費用應約為 4,250 萬美元。儘管今年通貨膨脹率很高,但我們的全年支出成長率預計僅為 3%。最後,我預期第四季非公認會計原則有效稅率約為 7%。
And now operator, let's begin the Q&A.
現在接線員,讓我們開始問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg from Stifel.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Yes. The first question is on the channel inventory. Sandeep, I think you mentioned it was 11.6, obviously, up sequentially. But you also said you've started to see it come down this quarter. And I assume with the decline in revenues, it's going to come quite a bit more. So where do you expect the channel inventory to be at as you exit the year?
是的。第一個問題是通路庫存。 Sandeep,我想你提到它是 11.6,顯然是連續上升的。但您也表示,本季您已經開始看到它下降。我認為隨著收入的下降,收入會更多。那麼,您預計今年結束時渠道庫存會是多少?
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
So I think we should get a benefit of at least 1.5 weeks or so in the coming quarter. As you know, this last quarter and the quarter before, I've been a little off. Normally, we generally have it. But I think the slowdown has kind of surprised us a little bit on the sell-through. But October was a welcome, where the sell-through definitely exceeded the sell-in. So I think my guess is about 1.5 weeks down.
所以我認為我們應該在下個季度獲得至少 1.5 週左右的收益。如你所知,上個季度和前一個季度,我有點不順利。正常情況下,我們一般都有。但我認為,銷售放緩讓我們有點驚訝。但十月是受歡迎的,銷售量絕對超過了銷售量。所以我認為我的猜測是大約 1.5 週。
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Very good. And related to that, I don't know if you want to answer or perhaps Balu here, but $90 million is obviously half of where the peak was, actually even more so. And I'm just wondering if you have a good feel for where your true consumption is. Obviously, this has been going up for a few quarters now. You had a little bit of a relief, obviously, from restocking perhaps in communications and PC. But any read you have on true consumption?
非常好。與此相關的是,我不知道你是否想回答或Balu在這裡,但9000萬美元顯然是高峰的一半,實際上甚至更多。我只是想知道你是否清楚自己的真實消費在哪裡。顯然,這個數字已經持續好幾個季度了。顯然,通訊和個人電腦領域的補貨讓您稍微鬆了口氣。但你有讀過關於真實消費的文章嗎?
And some companies have talked about sort of ripping off the Band-Aid and just guiding down pretty hard for Q4. I'm sort of wondering if that $9 million (sic) [$90 million] fits into that profile? Or do you think this could continue to be challenging into the first half of the year?
一些公司已經談到如何撕掉創可貼,並在第四季進行相當嚴格的指導。我有點想知道 900 萬美元(原文如此)[9000 萬美元]是否符合這個要求?或者您認為這可能會在今年上半年繼續面臨挑戰嗎?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
So Tore, the downturn has surprised us as it did surprise other people. We really thought when the bookings came out strong in March through May, we are on a rebound. And I think our customers thought that as well. And obviously, the demand didn't show up. And so now they have -- still stuck with inventories, especially in appliances and industrial markets. And -- so that's the reason why this has become a real reset in revenue for us.
所以托爾,經濟低迷讓我們感到驚訝,也讓其他人感到驚訝。我們確實認為,當三月到五月的預訂量強勁時,我們正在反彈。我認為我們的客戶也這麼認為。顯然,需求並沒有出現。所以現在他們仍然持有庫存,特別是在家電和工業市場。這就是我們真正重新調整收入的原因。
So in terms of what is the true demand, if we go back to normal demand that is before COVID demand, our run rate should be in the -- somewhere in the $150 million per quarter. We have done a number of modelings, that's what it would say. Why it is taking so long. Nobody really knows other than the fact that the economy across the world is not doing so well. The interest rates are very high. So we know it's going to come back. The question is when. And that's what we are trying and struggling to figure out.
因此,就真實需求而言,如果我們回到新冠疫情需求之前的正常需求,我們的運行率應該在每季 1.5 億美元左右。我們已經做了很多建模,這就是它所說的。為什麼要花這麼久。除了世界各地的經濟表現不佳之外,沒有人真正知道這一點。利率非常高。所以我們知道它會回來。問題是什麼時候。這就是我們正在努力並努力解決的問題。
But we think this is an appropriate thing to do to reset the number. We certainly don't want to grow the disti inventory any further. And we are optimistic that it will come down a week, 1.5 weeks in Q4, and we expect things to start recovering from Q1 onwards.
但我們認為重置這個數字是適當的做法。我們當然不想進一步增加分銷庫存。我們樂觀地認為第四季度會下降一周,即 1.5 週,我們預計情況將從第一季開始恢復。
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Tore Egil Svanberg - MD
Great. Just one last question on GaN, obviously, a bit more longer term. So you talked about the 1250-volt GaN switch introduced last week. And you did say that obviously, that opens up the door for new applications, obviously, more markets and so on and so forth. When is the earliest something like that could be in production, a 1,250 GaN Switch?
偉大的。最後一個問題是關於 GaN 的,顯然是一個更長期的問題。您談到了上週推出的 1250 伏特 GaN 開關。你確實說過,顯然,這為新應用程式打開了大門,顯然,更多的市場等等。類似的產品(1,250 GaN 開關)最早何時投入生產?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
The 1250 GaN Switch could be in production sometime next year because it usually takes 6 months to 9 months to go into production. The -- it will be mostly in the industrial market. But when we are able to build products that go to much higher power levels, then we'll get into things like onboard chargers in cars and DC-to-DC converters in cars and also into data centers and so on and so forth. But that's 2 or 3 years away, we are in the process of developing those products.
1250 GaN Switch 可能會在明年某個時候投入生產,因為通常需要 6 個月到 9 個月的時間才能投入生產。 - 它將主要在工業市場。但是,當我們能夠製造出功率水平更高的產品時,我們就會涉足汽車車載充電器、汽車直流對直流轉換器以及資料中心等領域。但這是兩三年後的事,我們正在開發這些產品。
As you know, everything we do is at a system level. And so it takes some time. However, the -- fundamentally, this technology is very attractive to replace silicon carbide in the 1,200-volt applications. As you may know, there is no silicon solution for that other than IGBTs. IGBTs are not very efficient. But the regular MOSFETs don't go to 1,200 volts. So the only solution you have today is silicon carbide, but GaN will replace silicon carbide, I believe, and provide much higher performance.
如您所知,我們所做的一切都是在系統層級。所以這需要一些時間。然而,從根本上來說,這項技術在 1,200 伏特應用中取代碳化矽非常有吸引力。如您所知,除了 IGBT 之外,沒有其他矽解決方案。 IGBT 的效率不是很高。但常規 MOSFET 的電壓不會達到 1,200 伏特。因此,目前唯一的解決方案是碳化矽,但我相信 GaN 將取代碳化矽,並提供更高的性能。
Operator
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of David Williams from the Benchmark Company.
您的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 公司的 David Williams。
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
I guess maybe Balu, if you could talk maybe a little bit -- you noted there was a sizable push out from an OEM that impacted the third quarter and fourth quarter. Can you kind of give us a sense maybe of what the magnitude of that impact was as we think about the fourth quarter, and does that recover? Is there a chance for maybe that to rebound if demand materializes a bit?
我想也許是Balu,如果你能談談的話——你注意到OEM 的大規模推出影響了第三季和第四季。您能否讓我們了解一下第四季的影響程度,以及這種影響是否會恢復?如果需求稍微具體化的話,是否有機會反彈?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. Let me try and answer that question. I'd be very careful because we don't want to discuss any specific customer. But in terms of the magnitude, it's in the mid -- sorry, mid-teens dollars -- million dollars is a total magnitude. Part of that was in Q3 and a larger portion is in Q4. But Q4 reduction is also impacted by other items. This is only 1 of the 3 items. The other items being a slowdown in industrial and consumer demand itself.
是的。讓我嘗試回答這個問題。我會非常小心,因為我們不想討論任何特定的客戶。但就規模而言,它處於中間——抱歉,是十幾美元——總規模為百萬美元。其中一部分是在第三季度,更大一部分是在第四季。但第四季的減少也受到其他項目的影響。這只是 3 項中的 1 項。其他因素是工業和消費者需求本身的放緩。
The last 1 is we had an unexpectedly strong bookings and I mean, the shipments for stocking distributors for China cellphone business in Q3 that will not be there in Q4. And this is because the inventory was unusually low. And when the customers came back with the orders, the distributors were caught off guard. And so they're scrambled to get some products from us and get the inventory built up to normal levels. And that's one of the reasons overall, disti inventory went up is because of the restocking of the cell phone business at disti.
最後一個是我們的預訂量出乎意料地強勁,我的意思是,第三季度中國手機業務庫存分銷商的發貨量在第四季度不會有。這是因為庫存異常低。當顧客帶著訂單回來時,經銷商們措手不及。因此,他們爭先恐後地從我們這裡購買一些產品,並將庫存增加到正常水平。這就是迪斯蒂庫存上升的總體原因之一,因為迪斯蒂的手機業務重新進貨。
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
And then maybe just another one here on the GaN. You've released it seems like quite a bit or many products over the last quarter. And it seems like the pace of those products is really picking up. And congrats on the new 1250-volt GaN. And we understand the applications for that. But I guess if you think about your customers and what you're hearing. Can you talk maybe a little bit of feedback of what the early thoughts have been with customers?
然後也許只是 GaN 上的另一個。上個季度您似乎發布了相當多的產品。這些產品的發展速度似乎確實在加快。恭喜新的 1250 伏特 GaN。我們了解其應用。但我想如果您考慮一下您的客戶以及您所聽到的內容。您能否談談與客戶的早期想法的一些回饋?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. I think most of them are very surprised. You can actually do GaN at 1250 volts. Our competitors have a challenge even doing 650 or 700 volts, they will struggle for a while. And our technology is uniquely suited for higher voltages. And so we were not only able to introduce a 900-volt product earlier this year. Now we are able to do 1,250. If you're wondering what is the magic about 1,250, 1,250 volts, that is derated by 80% will be 1,000 volts, which is what is needed in many applications, industrial applications and that's why we rate it at 1,250.
是的。我想他們中的大多數人都非常驚訝。實際上,您可以在 1250 伏特電壓下製造 GaN。我們的競爭對手即使在 650 或 700 伏特電壓下也面臨挑戰,他們也會掙扎一段時間。我們的技術特別適合更高電壓。因此,我們不僅在今年稍早推出了 900 伏特產品。現在我們可以做 1,250 個。如果您想知道 1,250、1,250 伏特的魔力是什麼,降額 80% 將是 1,000 伏,這是許多應用、工業應用所需要的,這就是我們將其評級為 1,250 的原因。
Now the technology is so flexible that we can even go to higher voltages and we plan to do so and offer even higher voltage products. And that's really the first time in the industry that GaN is able to go to these types of voltages. So what is the magic about that, is that, the 1,200 volt is quite an important development because when you go to 1,200 volts, you are in the silicon carbide world. And to the power level we can go to, which currently we think we can go to 10 kilowatts, we can replace silicon carbide in many applications.
現在,該技術非常靈活,我們甚至可以達到更高的電壓,我們計劃這樣做並提供更高電壓的產品。這確實是業界第一次 GaN 能夠達到這些類型的電壓。那麼它的神奇之處在於,1,200 伏特是一個非常重要的發展,因為當你達到 1,200 伏特時,你就進入了碳化矽世界。對於我們可以達到的功率水平,目前我們認為可以達到 10 千瓦,我們可以在許多應用中取代碳化矽。
And in the longer term, we believe with some breakthroughs in GaN we could go to even higher power levels and potentially become a major competition to silicon carbide but at a very competitive but more important, much higher performance of silicon carbide. And that's what is exciting about that. That 1,200 volt is a magic voltage where you are really getting into the silicon carbide world.
從長遠來看,我們相信,隨著 GaN 領域的一些突破,我們可以達到更高的功率水平,並有可能成為碳化矽的主要競爭對手,但更重要的是,碳化矽的性能會更高。這就是令人興奮的地方。 1,200 伏特是一個神奇的電壓,您將真正進入碳化矽世界。
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
Sure. Is that the same process that you've used on your lower voltage or your lower power? Or was there an architectural change to get to that 1250?
當然。這與您在較低電壓或較低功率上使用的過程相同嗎?或是是否需要進行架構變更才能達到 1250?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Well, the fundamental device is the same, but obviously, there are a lot of innovations that get us to higher voltages. And as I said, we will be pushing it even higher voltages which we are very confident we can get to and we've had a number of breakthroughs in that regard.
好吧,基本設備是相同的,但顯然,有許多創新可以讓我們獲得更高的電壓。正如我所說,我們將把它推向更高的電壓,我們非常有信心達到這一水平,並且我們在這方面已經取得了許多突破。
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
David Neil Williams - Senior Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. And just one last one real quick. What do you think the turns business looks like for -- to hit the $90 million midpoint there, Sandeep?
好的。偉大的。最後一件事真的很快。 Sandeep,你認為轉彎業務是什麼樣子的——達到 9000 萬美元的中點?
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Turns for this -- we're in the low -- it's in the 20s.
輪到這個了——我們正處於低谷——在20多歲。
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
20s -- low 20s.
20 多歲——低 20 多歲。
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Right.
正確的。
Operator
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland from Susquehanna.
你的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的克里斯多福羅蘭。
Christopher Adam Jackson Rolland - Senior Analyst
Christopher Adam Jackson Rolland - Senior Analyst
Just given the kind of crazy inventory dynamics here, I was wondering if you can kind of maybe talk about the snapback, when you think it might come? Broad thoughts on March versus seasonality or even if you could, kind of the slope for next year?
考慮到這裡瘋狂的庫存動態,我想知道您是否可以談論快速恢復,當您認為它可能會到來時?關於三月與季節性的廣泛想法,或即使可以,明年的坡度是什麼?
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
That's a great question. We've been asking about that within ourselves and our customers. And unfortunately, there is no clear answer from our customers. But from everything we know, we are optimistic that Q1 will be higher than Q4, but we don't know by how much. And we are hoping that from that point onwards, it will continue to grow.
這是一個很好的問題。我們一直在我們自己和我們的客戶內部詢問這個問題。不幸的是,我們的客戶沒有給出明確的答案。但從我們所知的一切來看,我們樂觀地認為第一季將高於第四季度,但我們不知道高出多少。我們希望從那時起,它將繼續增長。
And at some point, it has to come back. This is not -- this is way below the trend line. I am surprised it's taking so long to clear the inventory, it's obviously because the demand is low or well below where everybody was expecting it to be. But the demand has to come back at some point. And I think when it comes back, we'll be in a fantastic shape because we are continuing to win a lot of designs in lots of areas, as you've heard from us. Whether it's electric vehicles or GaN-based solutions for industrial applications and so on -- and appliances with BridgeSwitch with appliances. We have a lot of designs.
在某個時候,它必須回來。這不是——這遠低於趨勢線。我很驚訝清理庫存花了這麼長時間,這顯然是因為需求很低或遠低於每個人的預期。但需求必須在某個時候回歸。我認為當它回來時,我們將處於一個夢幻般的狀態,因為我們將繼續在許多領域贏得許多設計,正如您從我們那裡聽到的那樣。無論是電動車還是基於 GaN 的工業應用解決方案等——以及帶有 BridgeSwitch 的電器。我們有很多設計。
And some of those designs have been delayed simply because of the inventory. They want to clear out the old products before they introduce new products. So many of these designs will go into production in Q -- '24. And so we are optimistic that maybe the second half of '24 will be the time when it will be -- it will come out strong.
其中一些設計僅僅因為庫存而被推遲。他們想在推出新產品之前清除舊產品。其中許多設計將在 24 年第四季投入生產。因此,我們樂觀地認為,也許 24 年下半年將是它的表現——它將表現強勁。
However it happens, we are always the first ones to come out of it. And I think we'll come out very strongly just like we have done in the past downturns.
無論發生什麼,我們總是第一個走出困境的人。我認為我們會表現得非常強勁,就像我們在過去的經濟低迷時期所做的那樣。
Christopher Adam Jackson Rolland - Senior Analyst
Christopher Adam Jackson Rolland - Senior Analyst
Great. And perhaps another one for you. When I look at the kind of GaN market overall, I think the sweet spot is -- for right now, at least, is the high-volume consumer market. I think you guys were maybe doing $30 million or $40 million there at one point. What's kind of stalled that here other than the macro? And when do you think we can get a meaningful kind of inflection there? And I think that was a part of maybe a gross margin story as well. If you want to talk a little bit more about gross margin. It was a little lighter this quarter and kind of how we should think about it a little further out.
偉大的。也許還有另一份適合您。當我整體審視 GaN 市場時,我認為最佳點是——至少目前是大批量消費市場。我想你們可能曾經在那裡賺了 3000 萬或 4000 萬美元。除了宏之外還有什麼停滯的地方?你認為我們什麼時候可以在那裡得到一個有意義的改變?我認為這也可能是毛利率故事的一部分。如果您想多談談毛利率。本季的情況稍微輕鬆一些,我們應該進一步考慮一下。
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Let me talk about GaN and then Sandeep will address the gross margin part. Actually, we are continuing to expand GaN way beyond the mobile phones. We started with mobile because that's the fastest way to get it designed in. But we are seeing a significant interest and design wins in appliances, industrial markets, computer markets. It's really going to replace silicon about 30 watts. We believe all of our new products -- I should say, most of our new products use GaN. And there's a reason for that is because it is a better technology, it will compete very well with silicon within the next year or so.
讓我談談 GaN,然後 Sandeep 將討論毛利率部分。事實上,我們正在繼續將 GaN 擴展到手機以外的領域。我們從行動裝置開始,因為這是最快的設計方式。但我們看到人們對家電、工業市場和電腦市場產生了濃厚的興趣,並在設計上取得了勝利。它確實將取代約 30 瓦的矽。我們相信我們所有的新產品——我應該說,我們的大多數新產品都使用GaN。這是有原因的,因為它是一種更好的技術,它將在未來一年左右的時間內與矽進行很好的競爭。
And so we are seeing a lot of interest even in markets I never thought would care about GaN, simply because of some of the advantages it brings. In some cases, it's efficiency, in some cases, the fact that we don't need a heat sink. In some cases, it's because it is -- you can get very low audio [sounds], which is necessary. In many cases, it's because it can handle much higher transient voltages, GaN has this property that it doesn't have a sharp breakdown voltage. So if you exceed the breakdown voltage for short periods of time, it does not damage the transistor, which is incredibly useful if you're shipping products to places like India, where you have an unstable grid, and so we are seeing a lot of interest in all these different areas.
因此,即使在我從未想過會關心 GaN 的市場中,我們也看到了許多人的興趣,只是因為它帶來的一些優勢。在某些情況下,這是效率,在某些情況下,我們不需要散熱器。在某些情況下,這是因為您可以獲得非常低的音訊[聲音],這是必要的。在許多情況下,GaN 具有不具有尖銳擊穿電壓的特性,因為它可以處理更高的瞬態電壓。因此,如果您在短時間內超過擊穿電壓,它不會損壞晶體管,如果您要將產品運送到印度等電網不穩定的地方,這非常有用,因此我們看到許多對所有這些不同領域的興趣。
So I think the number of designs we are winning outside of mobile products, is higher than what we are winning within mobile. I think we talked about in the last conference call. And Sandeep, maybe you can handle the gross margin.
因此,我認為我們在行動產品之外贏得的設計數量高於我們在行動產品領域贏得的設計數量。我想我們在上次電話會議中談到過。 Sandeep,也許你可以處理毛利率。
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Yes. I think even though we are not totally certain on the revenue outlook for next year, we've done lots of different modeling and I think even with the different modeling, the best -- I'm looking at around 53.5% for non-GAAP for next year also. Now long term, as I had talked about even in the Analyst Day that the mix goes favorable. But remember, the yen is at a very favorable place. So if you have to model out, you have to model that the yen would come back to some normal levels, it's running at in the JPY 140s versus the normal levels of JPY 120.
是的。我認為,儘管我們對明年的收入前景並不完全確定,但我們已經做了很多不同的模型,而且我認為即使使用不同的模型,最好的 - 我正在考慮非 GAAP 的大約 53.5%明年也。從長遠來看,正如我在分析師日所談到的那樣,這種組合將變得有利。但請記住,日圓處於非常有利的位置。因此,如果你必須進行建模,你必須建模日元將回到某個正常水平,即 140 日元與 120 日元的正常水平。
So as the mix goes up and the yen moves back, I've always said we'll be on the higher end of the model. And I think even for '24, I think we'll be somewhere around 53.5%, which is towards the higher end of our model.
因此,隨著組合的上升和日元的回落,我總是說我們將處於模型的高端。我認為即使到 24 年,我們也將達到 53.5% 左右,這已經接近我們模型的高端。
Operator
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay from TD Cowen.
您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I'm trying to wrap my head around some of the commentary you gave around, I guess, a "new normal" at around $150 million a quarter. And I wanted to dig into a little bit more as to what -- how you guys built that. Was it historical sort of top down? Was it bottom up based on sort of design wins that you see and content that you have. I just kind of juxtapose that against, I think, the peak quarter was $115 million, thereabouts, in 2019 before the pandemic and things all got tight and things went higher.
我正在嘗試理解您對每季度約 1.5 億美元的“新常態”的評論。我想更深入地了解你們是如何建構它的。這是歷史上自上而下的嗎?它是否基於您看到的設計勝利和您擁有的內容而自下而上?我只是將其與 2019 年疫情爆發之前的季度高峰約為 1.15 億美元進行比較,一切都變得緊張,情況變得更高。
So I'm just trying to get my head around like sort of the pieces that you put together to get to that sort of new normal if that's indeed what you're sort of forecasting that it might be.
所以我只是想把我的頭腦弄清楚,就像你拼湊起來的碎片一樣,以達到那種新常態,如果這確實是你所預測的那樣。
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Balu Balakrishnan - President, CEO & Chairman
Okay. So we have had several different ways of modeling it. I think finance has done their own model, marketing has done their own model, sales have done their own model. It's based on multiple things. It is bottom-up and tops down. We have done both ways.
好的。所以我們有幾種不同的建模方法。我認為財務做了自己的模式,行銷做了自己的模式,銷售也做了自己的模式。它基於多種因素。它是自下而上和自上而下的。我們兩種方式都做了。
In terms of bottom up, we have taken the -- what we call a normal consumption of various markets before COVID and then said, "Okay, if you look at historically, the market SAM is increasing by this amount." And then on top of that, we have additional products and designs that add to that. So it's not exact. But surprisingly, all 3 of them show that we should be at $150 million a quarter, roughly speaking, other than, of course, everything else that's going on like wars and geopolitics and so on.
就自下而上而言,我們採取了新冠疫情之前各個市場的正常消費,然後說:“好吧,如果你看歷史,市場 SAM 正在以這個量增長。”除此之外,我們還有其他產品和設計。所以這並不準確。但令人驚訝的是,這三個因素都表明,粗略地說,我們每季的收入應該為 1.5 億美元,當然,除了戰爭和地緣政治等其他正在發生的事情之外。
So if you just take all of that away, that would be our trend line as of 2023 with growth further into the future. So it's just a modeling exercise. It doesn't take into account all the crazy things that are going on around the world.
因此,如果你把所有這些都去掉,這將是我們截至 2023 年的趨勢線,未來還會進一步成長。所以這只是一個建模練習。它沒有考慮到世界各地正在發生的所有瘋狂的事情。
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Thanks, Balu, I appreciate it. Just a little bit shorter term. Sandeep, could you maybe break down the guidance for December by segment just given the amount of revenue dislocation here. I just want to make sure we're all starting from the right place.
謝謝巴魯,我很感激。只是期限短一點。 Sandeep,鑑於這裡的收入錯位,您能否按細分市場細分 12 月份的指導?我只是想確保我們都從正確的地方開始。
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Yes. I think what the decline you should see, as we talked about, the decline will be more significant in communication and computer, but all 4 segments will decline.
是的。我認為你應該看到下降的情況,正如我們談到的,通訊和電腦領域的下降更為顯著,但所有 4 個細分市場都會下降。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.
您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。
Ross Clark Seymore - MD & Semiconductor Analyst
Ross Clark Seymore - MD & Semiconductor Analyst
You talked about the first quarter, you hope is going to go up, and I know it's very difficult to predict these days. But if you're going to end your channel inventory at 10 weeks, and that's still at least 1, if not 2 weeks above your target range, why wouldn't we still have some burn there? And maybe even just seasonality to the extent that matters also being a headwind in 1Q?
你談到了第一季度,你希望業績會上漲,我知道現在很難預測。但是,如果您打算在 10 週後結束渠道庫存,而這仍然比您的目標範圍多出至少 1 週(如果不是 2 週),那麼我們為什麼不在那裡進行一些燒錢呢?也許只是季節性因素也成為第一季的逆風?
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Yes. So one of the things that we are expecting is a rebound. We talked about the cancellations in Q3 and Q4. And I think there will be a rebound on that. So that's where I think the primary -- that's not -- and that's through direct sales, not through the channel.
是的。因此,我們期待的事情之一就是反彈。我們討論了第三季和第四季的取消。我認為這將會出現反彈。所以這就是我認為主要的地方——但不是——那就是透過直銷,而不是透過管道。
Also, if you really look at the level we are reaching in appliances, the channel inventory in appliances, we are hoping will, by Q4, come down -- the revenue guidance that we have given, will really come down to normal levels. That's my expectation in -- and if you really think where the appliances have come down, and I'm just using that as 1 category, the level is now even below the 2019 level.
此外,如果你真的看看我們在家電方面達到的水平,我們希望到第四季度,家電的渠道庫存會下降——我們給出的收入指導將真正下降到正常水平。這是我的預期——如果你真的認為電器下降了,我只是將其作為第一類,那麼現在的水平甚至低於 2019 年的水平。
So as Balu indicated, we are not certain of the total timing, but I'm hoping that in Q1, things like air conditioning start getting this build up, get more so in Q2 and then the rebound of this customer that I talked about, who had cancellations. Those are the reasons that I think Balu's saying will be better. What we are saying, we're typically seasonally down negative 1% or 2%, but we'll be better than that. So that's why Balu said, we'll be a little better than this quarter. And that's a directional because of these couple of items.
因此,正如巴魯所說,我們不確定總的時間,但我希望在第一季度,空調之類的東西開始增加,在第二季度變得更多,然後我談到的這個客戶的反彈,誰取消了。這就是我認為Balu的說法會更好的原因。我們所說的,我們通常會在季節性下降 1% 或 2%,但我們會比這更好。所以這就是為什麼巴魯說,我們會比這個季度好一點。由於這幾個項目,這是一個方向。
Ross Clark Seymore - MD & Semiconductor Analyst
Ross Clark Seymore - MD & Semiconductor Analyst
Prior question asked about the gross margin. What about the OpEx side of things I know you're pretty tight in the fourth quarter. How do you expect that in '24?
之前的問題詢問了毛利率。我知道第四季的營運支出非常緊張。您對 24 年有何期望?
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Sandeep Nayyar - CFO & VP of Finance
Yes. So this has been, as you can imagine, with all the inflation and everything has been a real challenge. And if you really look at our last 4 or 5 years, we've really tightened the belt. But we are at a point where we've got such exciting products in the pipeline. You've seen the announcement we had with GaN, with the investments we are going to make there for automotive. We've got other investments for India and other places.
是的。所以,正如你可以想像的那樣,通貨膨脹和一切都是一個真正的挑戰。如果你仔細看看我們過去四、五年的情況,你會發現我們確實勒緊了褲帶。但我們正處於這樣一個階段,我們正在開發如此令人興奮的產品。您已經看到了我們關於 GaN 的公告,以及我們將在汽車領域的投資。我們對印度和其他地方還有其他投資。
And so we have to make those investments. And that's why for next year, I think you should -- for modeling purposes, the expenses will grow 7% to 8% from the current year level. If you really think what is really happening here, we cut our expenses nearly $7 million, $8 million this year. And basically, I push that out next year with the normal raises, the higher health care costs that I'm sure you're aware of what's going on in that market.
因此我們必須進行這些投資。這就是為什麼明年,我認為你應該——出於建模目的,費用將比今年的水平增長 7% 到 8%。如果你認真思考這裡到底發生了什麼,我們今年削減了近 700 萬美元、800 萬美元的開支。基本上,我會在明年以正常的加薪和更高的醫療保健費用來推遲這項計劃,我相信您知道該市場正在發生什麼。
So we are keeping tightening our belt how much we can, but we have to make those investments, which are strategic. And you know Ross, this is not the first time we've been in this tight situation. We've been here in 2011 and '12. And we had the same -- once it was a yen problem, one, it was Nokia and RIM going away. But we invested. And you saw us come back, and I think this is going to be no different. And I think as Balu indicated, typically, these downturns have been about 4 quarters. This time, it's definitely longer. But they eventually turn, and we see it first. And every time we turned, we've come out stronger.
因此,我們正在盡可能地勒緊褲腰帶,但我們必須進行這些策略性投資。你知道羅斯,這不是我們第一次陷入這種緊張的情況。我們2011年和12年都來過這裡。我們也遇到過同樣的情況——一旦出現日圓問題,諾基亞和 RIM 就會消失。但我們投資了。你看到我們回來了,我想這也不會有什麼不同。我認為,正如巴魯所指出的,通常情況下,這些低迷持續了大約四個季度。這一次,時間肯定更長了。但他們最終會轉向,我們首先看到它。每一次轉變,我們都會變得更強大。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. So I would like to turn the floor back over to Joe Shiffler.
(操作員說明) 目前沒有其他問題。所以我想把發言權交還給喬希弗勒 (Joe Shiffler)。
Joe Shiffler - Director of IR & Corporate Communications
Joe Shiffler - Director of IR & Corporate Communications
All right. Thank you, Christina, and thanks, everyone, for listening. There will be a replay of this call available on our website, investors.power.com. Thanks again, and good afternoon.
好的。謝謝克里斯蒂娜,也謝謝大家的聆聽。我們的網站 Investors.power.com 上將提供本次電話會議的重播。再次感謝,下午好。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。