Power Integrations Inc (POWI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Power Integrations' Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Shiffler, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Power Integrations 第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監喬希夫勒 (Joe Shiffler)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Lisa. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. With me on the call today are Balu Balakrishnan, President and CEO of Power Integrations; and Sandeep Nayyar, our Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to GAAP; non-GAAP measures for the December quarter excludes stock-based compensation expenses; amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets and the tax effects of these items.

謝謝你，麗莎。大家下午好。感謝您的加入。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Power Integrations 總裁兼執行長 Balu Balakrishnan；以及我們的財務長 Sandeep Nayyar。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考未依照 GAAP 計算的財務指標； 12 月季度的非 GAAP 指標不包括股票薪酬費用；與收購相關的無形資產的攤銷及其稅務影響。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release. Our discussion today, including the Q&A session, will include forward-looking statements denoted by words like will, would, believe, should, expect, outlook, plan, forecast, anticipate, prospects and similar expressions that look toward future events or performance.

今天的新聞稿中包含了非 GAAP 指標與我們的 GAAP 結果的對帳表。我們今天的討論，包括問答環節，將包括前瞻性陳述，以諸如將、會、相信、應該、預期、展望、計劃、預測、預期、前景等詞語和類似的表達來表示，這些詞語著眼於未來事件或表現。

Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. Such risks and uncertainties are discussed in today's press release and in our most recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 7 of last year. Finally, this call is the property of Power Integrations and any recording or rebroadcast is expressly prohibited without the written consent of Power Integrations. Now I'll turn the call over to Balu.

此類聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預測或暗示的結果有重大差異。今天的新聞稿和我們去年 2 月 7 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表中討論了此類風險和不確定性。最後，本次通話屬於 Power Integrations 的財產，未經 Power Integrations 書面同意，嚴禁進行任何錄音或轉播。現在我將電話轉給巴魯。

Thanks, Joe, and good afternoon. Fourth quarter revenues were $125 million, in line with our guidance and down 22% sequentially, reflecting the downturn in the semiconductor industry. We expect a further sequential decline in the March quarter as end demand continues to be soft and distribution inventories remain elevated. For those less familiar with our history, we are typically among the first semiconductor companies to see a downturn because our products are used in power supplies, which are often built in advance of end products.

謝謝，喬，下午好。第四季營收為 1.25 億美元，符合我們的預期，季減 22%，反映了半導體產業的低迷。由於終端需求持續疲軟且分銷庫存仍高企，我們預計 3 月季度銷售將進一步環比下滑。對於那些不太熟悉我們歷史的人來說，我們通常是第一批經歷衰退的半導體公司之一，因為我們的產品用於電源，而電源通常是在最終產品之前製造的。

This dynamic can also result in large cyclical fluctuations than our peers because many of our customers are suppliers to OEMs, creating an additional layer of inventory between us and the end market. Of course, these dynamics apply to both ends of the cycle. And while we tend to underperform our peers at the front end of a down cycle, we tend to outperform on the other side.

這種動態也可能導致比同業更大的周期性波動，因為我們的許多客戶都是 OEM 的供應商，從而在我們和終端市場之間產生了額外的庫存層。當然，這些動態適用於週期的兩端。儘管在經濟下行週期的前端，我們的表現往往不如同行，但在另一端，我們的表現往往優於同行。

For example, we underperformed the analog industry in 2018, as we were early into the down cycle, felt across the industry the following year. We went on to outperform analog by a wide margin not only in 2019, but in each of the next 2 years as well. We are now into our third quarter of sequentially lower revenues and channel inventories are declining after peaking in the September quarter.

例如，2018 年我們的表現不如模擬產業，因為我們剛進入下行週期，第二年整個產業都感受到了這種影響。我們不僅在 2019 年，在接下來的兩年裡，都大幅超越模擬市場。我們目前已進入第三季度，營收連續下降，通路庫存在 9 月季度達到高峰後也呈現下降趨勢。

While the slope of the recovery will, of course, depend on the strength of the end market demand, we do expect revenues to bottom in the March quarter, followed by a sequential growth in the June quarter. Looking at the fourth quarter from an end market perspective, appliances, which dominate the consumer category have weakened considerably in recent months, driven by the softer housing market, inflation and the overstimulation of demand for appliances during the pandemic.

當然，復甦的斜率將取決於終端市場需求的強度，但我們確實預計營收將在 3 月季度觸底，隨後在 6 月季度實現連續成長。從終端市場角度看第四季度，受房地產市場疲軟、通貨膨脹以及疫情期間家電需求過度刺激的影響，佔據消費主導地位的家電近幾個月來表現大幅疲軟。

Sell-through for the consumer category in the fourth quarter was down about 40% year-over-year, affecting all subcategories, including major and small appliances and air conditioners. Despite the short-term headwinds, we remain as bullish as ever on the opportunity in appliances, where we have gained significant share over the past couple of years. Dollar content continues to rise, driven by increased penetration of features like WiFi connectivity, the adoption of GaN products and the ongoing transition to brushless DC motors, which we are addressing with our BridgeSwitch products.

第四季消費性電子產品的銷售量較去年同期下降約 40%，影響到所有子類別，包括大型家電、小型家電和空調。儘管短期內面臨阻力，我們仍然一如既往地看好家電行業的機遇，過去幾年，我們在該行業的市場份額已顯著提升。美元含量持續上升，這得益於 WiFi 連接等功能普及率的提高、GaN 產品的採用以及無刷直流馬達的持續過渡，我們正在透過 BridgeSwitch 產品解決這些問題。

In the industrial category, reported revenues were down more than 25% sequentially, reflecting elevated channel inventories, while sell-through fell by only about 10%. Broad-based industrial applications are down significantly, but we are seeing offsetting strength in home and building automation and high power, particularly in renewable energy and energy exploration. In the communications category dominated by smartphone chargers, sell-through has stabilized and channel inventories are approaching normal levels, suggesting that end customer inventory have improved significantly.

在工業類別中，報告的收入環比下降超過 25％，反映出通路庫存增加，而銷售額僅下降約 10％。廣泛的工業應用大幅下滑，但我們看到家庭和建築自動化以及高功率領域，特別是在再生能源和能源勘探領域的抵消優勢。以智慧型手機充電器為主的通訊類別，銷售量已穩定下來，通路庫存也接近正常水平，這表明終端客戶庫存已大幅改善。

Revenues for communications were up double digits in Q4 compared to Q3. And while we expect Q1 to be seasonally lower, we do anticipate sequential improvement in the June quarter. Having said all this, we are looking past the short-term macro and cyclical gyrations and staying focused on the long term and profitability -- long-term growth and profitability.

第四季的通訊收入較第三季成長了兩季。雖然我們預計第一季的銷售額將因季節性因素而下降，但我們預計 6 月季度的銷售額將較上季改善。話雖如此，我們的眼光並不局限於短期宏觀和週期性波動，而是專注於長期成長和獲利能力。

The fundamentals of the business are strong, and we continue to gain share across a broad range of end markets and geographies such as Japan and India, where our combined revenues grew more than 30% last year. Most importantly, we are executing on the opportunities we laid out in our recent Analyst Day, including our plan to double our SAM over the next several years.

業務基本面強勁，我們繼續在日本和印度等廣泛的終端市場和地區獲得份額，去年我們的綜合收入增長了 30％ 以上。最重要的是，我們正在執行最近分析師日提出的機遇，包括未來幾年將 SAM 翻倍的計畫。

We will also do so by expanding our portfolio of GaN products to address a wider range of applications while growing our presence in brushless DC motors and EVs, each of which we expect to be a $1 billion opportunity by 2027. Our high-power products are winning in renewable energy, power grid and industrial motor applications, and we have new gate driver products in the pipeline that will strengthen our long-term competitive position in high power.

我們也將透過擴展我們的 GaN 產品組合來滿足更廣泛的應用，同時擴大我們在無刷直流馬達和電動車領域的業務，我們預計到 2027 年，這兩個領域都將帶來 10 億美元的商機。

We also continue to press our advantage in energy efficiency, helping customers meet tighter specs like those implemented recently in China for air conditioners and India for ceiling fans. In fact, several of our largest design wins in Q4 were for air conditioning customers in China, while a major Indian customer is now among the largest users of our BridgeSwitch motor drive products.

我們也將繼續發揮我們在能源效率方面的優勢，幫助客戶滿足更嚴格的規格，例如最近中國針對空調和印度針對吊扇實施的規格。事實上，我們在第四季度贏得的幾個最大設計訂單都是針對中國的空調客戶，而印度的一​​位主要客戶現在已成為我們 BridgeSwitch 馬達驅動產品的最大用戶之一。

In all, BridgeSwitch is now in production with more than a dozen customers, and we expect that number to grow significantly after tripling the size of our design funnel in 2022. We also tripled our opportunity pipeline last year in the EV market, where our silicon carbide InnoSwitch products are an exceptional fit for power supplies in electric passenger cars and commercial vehicles.

總而言之，BridgeSwitch 現已與十多家客戶投入生產，我們預計，在 2022 年將設計通路規模擴大三倍後，這一數字將大幅增長。

As EV architectures evolve, customers are increasingly using the main battery voltage for subsystems that today are still powered by standard 12-volt batteries. This trend is creating new sockets for InnoSwitch and our other automotive qualified power conversion chips which are superior to discrete solutions in terms of reliability, efficiency and footprint. We won 5 new automotive designs in Q4 and now have more than 3 dozen designs in production at about 15 end customers. Both of these figures are on track to raise significantly with as many as 20 new programs already scheduled to enter production this year and many more in the pipeline.

隨著電動車架構的發展，客戶越來越多地使用主電池電壓來為目前仍由標準 12 伏特電池供電的子系統供電。這一趨勢為 InnoSwitch 和我們其他符合汽車標準的電源轉換晶片創造了新的插座，這些晶片在可靠性、效率和佔用空間方面優於分立解決方案。我們在第四季度贏得了 5 項新型汽車設計，目前已有約 15 家終端客戶投入生產 30 餘種設計。這兩個數字都有望大幅提升，因為今年已有多達 20 個新項目計劃投入生產，還有更多項目正在籌備中。

Our high-power business rebounded nicely in 2022 from the pandemic-induced slowdown of the prior 2 years, growing more than 20% and contributing to high-teens growth in our industrial category. We expect strong growth again in 2023, driven primarily by renewable energy and power grid projects. In summary, the fundamentals of our business are sound, the opportunities in front of us are as exciting as ever, and we continue to invest for long-term growth.

2022 年，我們的大功率業務從前兩年因疫情而導致的經濟放緩中強勁反彈，成長超過 20%，並推動我們工業類別實現高成長率。我們預計 2023 年將再次強勁成長，主要得益於再生能源和電網專案。總而言之，我們業務的基本面是良好的，我們面前的機會一如既往地令人興奮，我們將繼續為長期成長進行投資。

We also continue to return cash to stockholders through a combination of price-conscious buyback as well as dividends. As noted in the press release today, our board has increased the quarterly dividend by 6%, beginning with the March payout. Before I turn it over to Sandeep, I'd like to highlight 2 very welcome additions to our Board of Directors, starting with Nancy Gioia, who joined the Board on January 1. Nancy had a distinguished carrier in the automotive industry, comprising 33 years of service at Ford Motor Company, including executive roles in product development, manufacturing, strategy and planning. She has extensive experience in the EV space having served in the later part of her career as Ford's Director of Global Electrification, and she currently serves on the Board of Lucid Group, a leading EV manufacturer.

我們也持續透過價格導向回購和股利等方式向股東返還現金。正如今天的新聞稿所述，從三月開始，我們的董事會已將季度股息提高了 6%。在將發言權交給 Sandeep 之前，我想先強調我們董事會新增的兩位成員，首先是 Nancy Gioia，她於 1 月 1 日加入董事會。她在電動車領域擁有豐富的經驗，曾在職業生涯後期擔任福特全球電氣化總監，目前擔任領先的電動車製造商 Lucid Group 的董事會成員。

Joining our broad on April 1 will be Ravi Vig, who was CEO of Allegro MicroSystems until last year, concluding a 38-year career at Allegro and its parent company, Sanken North America. In addition to leading their IPO several years ago, Ravi helped Allegro navigate the transition to the EV market after decades supplying sensor and power chips for internal combustion vehicles.

4 月 1 日加入我們團隊的將是 Ravi Vig，他曾擔任 Allegro MicroSystems 的首席執行官直至去年，在 Allegro 及其母公司 Sanken North America 結束了長達 38 年的職業生涯。除了幾年前領導該公司的 IPO 之外，Ravi 還幫助 Allegro 在為內燃機汽車提供感測器和電源晶片數十年後實現了向電動車市場的轉型。

In speaking out these highly accomplished automotive executives, one from the industry and one from the semiconductor side, we are underscoring our commitment to the EV market and adding highly relevant expertise to support our efforts. Just as importantly, I believe their willingness to join us in this effort says a lot about the attractiveness of the EV opportunity for Power Integrations.

透過向這些非常有成就的汽車高管（一位來自汽車行業，一位來自半導體領域）發表講話，我們強調了我們對電動車市場的承諾，並增加了高度相關的專業知識來支持我們的努力。同樣重要的是，我相信他們願意加入我們的努力，這充分說明了電動車機會對於 Power Integrations 的吸引力。

Finally, I will note that in December, we received Great place to work Certification following an anonymous survey in which 82% of our employees stated that Power Integrations is a great place to work. That is 25 points higher than the average U.S. company. I believe this award reflects our culture of innovation, the consistency and focus of our strategy. The fact that our products contribute to the health of our planet and that we value employees regardless of semiconductor cycles and macroeconomic turbulence. And with that, I'll turn it over to Sandeep for a review of the financials.

最後，我要指出的是，在 12 月的一項匿名調查中，我們獲得了「最佳工作場所」認證，其中 82% 的員工表示 Power Integrations 是一家最佳工作場所。這比美國公司的平均水準高出 25 個百分點。我相信這個獎項體現了我們的創新文化、以及我們策略的一致性和重點性。事實上，我們的產品有助於地球的健康，無論半導體週期和宏觀經濟動盪如何，我們都重視員工。說完這些，我將把財務狀況交給 Sandeep 進行審查。

Thanks, Balu, and good afternoon. I will start by reiterating what I said on the last quarter call, which is that we are well positioned to weather the current downturn thanks to our balance sheet and our lean expense structure. While we are taking prudent steps to moderate spending and production levels, we will not deviate from the long-term focus that was an important theme of our recent Analyst Day. That includes looking beyond the downturn and continuing to invest in people and products as well as maintaining production capacity to be ready for an upturn in demand.

謝謝，Balu，下午好。首先，我想重申我在上個季度電話會議上所說的話，那就是，憑藉我們的資產負債表和精益的費用結構，我們完全有能力抵禦當前的經濟衰退。雖然我們正在採取審慎措施來控制支出和生產水平，但我們不會偏離最近分析師日的重要主題——長期關注。這包括展望經濟低迷之後，繼續對人才和產品進行投資，以及維持生產能力，為需求回升做好準備。

While internal inventories are above our target, this is consistent with how we have managed through past downturns, an approach that has served us well throughout our history. Our products are largely fungible across customers and end markets and have minimal obsolescence risk, especially when kept in wafer form.

雖然內部庫存高於我們的目標，但這與我們應對過去經濟低迷的方式一致，這種方法在我們的歷史上發揮著良好的作用。我們的產品在客戶和終端市場之間基本上是可替代的，並且過時的風險極小，尤其是以晶圓形式保存時。

We also continue to hire around the world, while working hard to develop and retain current employees. This includes normal salary increases despite the economic downturn and continuing to pay an above-average portion of the cost of benefits despite rapidly rising insurance rates.

我們也將繼續在世界各地招聘，同時努力培養和留住現有員工。這包括儘管經濟不景氣，但仍保持正常的工資成長，以及儘管保險費率快速上漲，但仍繼續支付高於平均水平的福利成本。

I will now discuss the Q4 numbers and the outlook before we begin the Q&A session. Revenues for the quarter were $125 million in the middle of our guidance range and down 22% from the prior quarter. The consumer category, which is dominated by appliances, was down more than 30% with weakness across all categories of appliances. While domestic demand in China continues to be stopped, the slowdown in appliances has broadened geographically. The industrial category was down more than 25% sequentially, primarily reflecting elevated channel inventories.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我將討論第四季的數據和前景。本季營收為 1.25 億美元，位於我們預期範圍的中間，季減 22%。以家電為主的消費類別下跌超過 30%，所有類別的家電都表現疲軟。在中國國內需求持續停滯的同時，家電市場放緩的地域範圍擴大。工業類別環比下降超過 25％，主要反映渠道庫存增加。

As Balu noted, sell-through was lower by only 10% sequentially in the industrial category. Computer revenues fell by high-teens percentage sequentially, reflecting ongoing softness in that end market. Revenues from the communications category, which is dominated by smartphone chargers, increased sequentially by a low-teens percentage of a low prior quarter low level. While smartphones demand continues to be weak, channel inventory has fallen to near-normal levels, indicating that end customer inventories are healthier than they have been in some time.

正如 Balu 所指出的，工業類別的銷售量僅比上一季下降了 10%。電腦營收季減了百分之十幾，反映出終端市場持續疲軟。以智慧型手機充電器為主的通訊類別的收入比上一季低百分之十幾。雖然智慧型手機需求持續疲軟，但通路庫存已降至接近正常水平，顯示終端客戶庫存比一段時間以來更為健康。

Overall, channel inventory stood at 13.5 weeks at quarter end, just below slightly from the prior quarter, though the decrease was most significant in dollar terms, with sell-through exceeding sell-in by about $8 million. Revenue mix for the fourth quarter was 39% Industrial, 26% Consumer, 23% communication and 12% computer. Collectively, the communication and computer markets increased by 8 percentage points from the prior quarter, a less favorable mix than we anticipated, resulting in lower-than-expected gross margins.

整體而言，本季末通路庫存為 13.5 週，略低於上一季度，但以美元計算，降幅最為顯著，銷售量超過銷售量約 800 萬美元。第四季的收入結構為：工業39%、消費26%、通訊23%、電腦12%。總體而言，通訊和電腦市場較上一季成長了 8 個百分點，這一組合低於我們的預期，導致毛利率低於預期。

Specifically, non-GAAP gross margin were 54.7% compared to our guide of 56% to 56.5%. Relative to the prior quarter, gross margin was down about 3 percentage points, driven primarily by mix and the impact of lower production volumes. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the quarter were $40.2 million, down slightly from the prior quarter and about $2 million below our guidance, primarily reflecting the timing of headcount additions and other spending.

具體而言，非 GAAP 毛利率為 54.7%，而我們的預期為 56% 至 56.5%。與上一季相比，毛利率下降約 3 個百分點，主要受產品組合和產量下降的影響。本季非公認會計準則營業費用為 4,020 萬美元，較上一季略有下降，比我們的預期低約 200 萬美元，主要反映了員工增加和其他支出的時間安排。

Non-GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 22.5% and non-GAAP earnings of $0.48 per diluted share. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for the quarter was 3.3%, reflecting a catch-up to bring our full year tax rate to 8.2%. Weighted average diluted share count for the quarter was 57.5 million, down about 100,000 from the prior quarter. We utilized $19 million for repurchases during the quarter, buying back 266,000 shares at an average price of just over $70.

本季非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 22.5%，非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益為 0.48 美元。本季的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 3.3%，反映出全年稅率追趕至 8.2% 的趨勢。本季加權平均攤薄股數為 5,750 萬股，較上一季減少約 10 萬股。我們在本季使用了 1,900 萬美元進行回購，以平均略高於 70 美元的價格回購了 266,000 股。

We had $81 million remaining on our authorization entering the March quarter. Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $24 million. We used $6 million during the quarter for CapEx and paid out over $10 million in dividends. As Balu noted, our Board has increased the quarterly dividend to $0.19 per share, an increase of 6%. For all of 2022, we returned $353 million to stockholders through buybacks and dividends. That's about 2/3 of the cash and investments we had at the start of the year and about 200% of last year's free cash flow.

截至三月季度，我們的授權金額還剩餘 8,100 萬美元。本季經營活動現金流為 2,400 萬美元。我們在本季使用了 600 萬美元的資本支出，並支付了超過 1000 萬美元的股息。正如 Balu 所指出的，我們的董事會已將季度股息提高至每股 0.19 美元，增幅為 6%。 2022 年全年，我們透過回購和股利向股東返還了 3.53 億美元。這約占我們年初現金和投資的 2/3，以及去年自由現金流的 200%。

Nevertheless, our balance sheet remains extremely strong with $354 million in cash and investments at year-end. Inventories on the balance sheet rose to 215 days at quarter end. As noted earlier, the nature of our product allows us to build wafer inventory during downturns to ensure continued access to foundry capacity and to be ready in the event of a sudden recovery in demand.

儘管如此，我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁，年底的現金和投資為 3.54 億美元。季度末，資產負債表上的庫存增加至 215 天。如前所述，我們產品的特性使我們能夠在經濟低迷時期建立晶圓庫存，以確保繼續獲得代工產能，並在需求突然復甦時做好準備。

I expect inventory days to peak in the March quarter and then to taper down gradually through the remainder of the year. Turning to the outlook. We expect revenues for the March quarter to be $105 million, plus or minus $5 million. We expect sell-through to once again be meaningfully higher than reported revenues as channel inventories continue to come down.

我預計庫存天數將在 3 月達到峰值，然後在今年剩餘時間內逐漸減少。展望未來。我們預計 3 月季度的營收為 1.05 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元。隨著通路庫存持續下降，我們預計銷售額將再次顯著高於報告收入。

I expect non-GAAP gross margin for Q1 to be approximately 53.5% with a sequential decrease driven again by lower back-end manufacturing volumes and a less favorable end market mix. Gross margin should rebound after the March quarter as volume and mix-related headwinds abate, and we realized the benefit of the weaker yen that prevailed in the second half of 2022. For the full year, non-GAAP gross margin should be around the high end of our target range of 50% to 55%. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the first quarter should be between $42 million and $42.5 million, up from the fourth quarter, reflecting our hiring plans as well as the resumption of FICA taxes and the comparative impact of the year-end shutdown in the prior quarter.

我預計第一季非 GAAP 毛利率約為 53.5%，由於後端製造量下降和終端市場組合不佳，毛利率將出現環比下降。隨著與銷售和產品組合相關的不利因素減弱，毛利率應會在 3 月季度後反彈，並且我們意識到 2022 年下半年日圓走弱的好處。第一季非公認會計準則下的營業費用應在 4,200 萬美元至 4,250 萬美元之間，高於第四季度，這反映了我們的招聘計劃以及 FICA 稅的恢復和上一季度年底停工的比較影響。

I expect non-GAAP effective tax rate for March quarter and for the year to be between 8.5% and 9%. And now, operator, let's begin the Q&A.

我預計 3 月季度和全年的非 GAAP 有效稅率在 8.5% 至 9% 之間。接線生，現在我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）我們將回答德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩提出的第一個問題。

Just wanted to see, during the course of the fourth quarter and heading into the first quarter, you guys had thought a quarter ago that the March quarter might be flattish sequentially. Obviously, that didn't happen. Is it just that the demand weakened. It sounds like the channel inventory directionally headed like you expected, but just wanted to get some of the puts and takes that's causing the weakness in March?

只是想看看，在第四季和進入第一季期間，你們一個季度前就認為三月季度可能會環比持平。顯然，這並沒有發生。難道只是需求減弱了嗎？聽起來渠道庫存的方向和您預期的一樣，但是只是想了解一下導致 3 月疲軟的一些因素？

It's definitely the demand weakening more than we thought, especially in the consumer space. That is our -- which is mainly appliances. We thought that would -- we never expected it to go down as far as it did, and it clearly reflects not only slowdown demand, but also inventory in our channel and at the OEM. I think they were surprised, as surprised as we are in terms of the sudden reduction in demand.

需求肯定比我們想像的弱，特別是在消費領域。那是我們的——主要是家用電器。我們認為——我們從未想到它會下降這麼多，這清楚地反映了不僅需求放緩，也反映了我們渠道和 OEM 的庫存。我認為他們感到驚訝，就像我們對於需求突然減少感到驚訝一樣。

And Ross, we started seeing this after the earnings call, somewhere in November time frame and December, and they attended a couple of conferences. And there, we actually publicly did indicate that we expect that March to be the quarter where it will be lower than Q4 and that will be probably where we'll bottom out before we start moving upward again.

羅斯，我們在財報電話會議之後開始看到這種情況，大概是在 11 月和 12 月左右，他們參加了幾次會議。事實上，我們確實公開表示，我們預計 3 月份的銷售額將低於第四季度，這可能是我們在再次開始上漲之前觸底的時候。

I guess as my follow-up, you talked and this will kind of be a revenue and a gross margin question, but you talked about the mix headwinds in the quarter and the guide and then talked about those lessening than the kind of the shape of the upturn coming out the other side. What are the mix dynamics that you expect to normalize if you talk by segment within the March quarter? And the gross margin side of things, how do you expect the linear area of that to work for the year? As I know, Sandeep, you said it would be close to the high end of your 50% to 55% range as the year progresses?

我想作為我的後續問題，您談到了這將是一個收入和毛利率問題，但您談到了本季度和指南中的混合逆風，然後談到了這些逆風正在減弱，而不是另一方面出現的好轉形態。如果您按三月季度的各個細分市場來談，您預計哪些組合動態會正常化？就毛利率方面而言，您預計今年的線性面積將如何變化？據我所知，桑迪普，您說過，隨著時間的推移，該比例將接近 50% 至 55% 範圍的高端？

Correct. So if you look at it, even in Q4, even though the consumer came in weaker, we were able to kind of makeup that by the cell phone and computer being a little better. And that's why you saw we came in at like 23% was the communication in Q4.

正確的。所以如果你看一下，即使在第四季度，儘管消費者表現較弱，但我們能夠透過手機和電腦的更好表現來彌補這一不足。這就是為什麼您看到我們在第四季度的溝通率達到了 23%。

We expect communications to be still strong even though every category will decline in Q1. But as a percentage, communication and computer will remain healthier and the decline is more in the consumer and industrial side a little bit. And as a result, we are giving the guidance. Plus the volumes are lower, which is really having an impact for us.

儘管第一季每個類別都會下降，但我們預計溝通仍然強勁。但從百分比來看，通訊和電腦仍將保持更健康的狀態，而消費和工業方面的下滑則更多。因此，我們給出了指導。此外，銷量較低，這確實對我們產生了影響。

And as the year progresses, we will start seeing the benefit of yen. And basically, the volumes, the headwind that we had will start going away. If you remember, the yen had really moved very well in the back half of 2022, which will -- because of the inventory starts flowing in Q2 and Q3. And now you know the dollar is weakening. And so the reversal was actually go the other direction in Q1 of 2024. So if you look at the rest of the year, I think after the first quarter, we will start moving towards the 55% give and take for the rest of each of the quarters. And if you look a little long term, I had talked about on the Analyst Day that even though we are moving on the higher end towards the mix, -- but I had talked about that my gross margin would remain on the higher end of the model and primarily was because I was anticipating the yen to start moving back and it's exactly what's happening.

隨著時間的推移，我們將開始看到日圓的好處。基本上，我們面臨的銷售阻力將開始消失。如果你還記得的話，日圓在 2022 年下半年確實表現得非常好，這是因為第二季和第三季庫存開始流入。現在你知道美元正在走弱。因此，逆轉實際上是在 2024 年第一季朝著另一個方向發展。如果你把眼光放長遠一些，我在分析師日上談到，儘管我們正向組合高端邁進，但我也談到我的毛利率仍將保持在模型的高端，主要是因為我預計日圓將開始回落，而這正是正在發生的事情。

We'll take our next question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

下一個問題由 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg 提出。

Yes. Let me start with the internal inventories, Sandeep. So I think 2.15, that's probably the highest number I've seen from (inaudible). And I think I do understand why. But what I wanted to sort of get more color on is, how much of that is cyclical, meaning you obviously buy -- I mean, you build inventory during the downturn because of the shelf life. But how much of that was also opportunistically taking advantage of the Japanese yen?

是的。讓我從內部庫存開始，桑迪普。所以我認為 2.15 可能是我從 (聽不清楚) 看到的最高數字。我想我確實明白為什麼。但我想要更詳細地說明的是，其中有多少是週期性的，這意味著你顯然會購買——我的意思是，你會在經濟低迷時期建立庫存，因為保質期很長。但其中有多少也是投機性地利用日元呢？

Well, we weren't trying to just dive the Japanese here, I'll be honest. I think it's more looking at the planning and working with our foundry partners. This is really a partnership, and we have to look at the economics on their end too. But I think if you really look in dollar terms, it has gone to about $135 million. Even if you look in Q1, looking ahead, the days will peak, but the dollar value probably from this $135 million is not going to move more than $4 million to $5 million. And I think what's going to happen is as we come back in the second half, I expect the days to start tapering down each quarter in Q3 and Q4, though even in Q4, it will be above our model because if you looked already historically, as we had talked about in 2018, when we were out of sync with the analog, we always see the downturn first. And when we come back, we come back always strong.

嗯，說實話，我們並不是只想了解日文。我認為這更多地取決於規劃以及與我們的代工合作夥伴的合作。 這確實是一種合作關係，我們也必須考慮他們的經濟因素。但我認為，如果你真的以美元來計算，它已經達到約 1.35 億美元。即使你看第一季度，展望未來，日子會很美好，但從這 1.35 億美元來看，美元價值可能不會超過 400 萬美元到 500 萬美元。我認為，隨著我們進入下半年，預計第三季度和第四季度的天數將開始減少，但即使在第四季度，它也會高於我們的模型，因為如果你回顧歷史，就像我們在 2018 年談到的那樣，當我們與模擬不同步時，我們總是首先看到經濟衰退。當我們回來的時候，我們總是變得強大。

So if we believe -- and I think I've talked about that the second half being stronger part, we have got, hopefully, the pull-in of demand on the consumer side and appliances, anniversarying in Q2 because if you said you had a pull-in of demand of a year. I really think if we believe the second half which we do, it should bode very well for 2024. And that's why we very feel very good at keeping the inventory where we are because historically, it has really helped us in the long run when the rebound happens.

因此，如果我們相信 — — 我認為我已經談過，下半年將是更為強勁的部分，那麼我們就有望獲得消費者方面和家電方面需求的拉動，因為如果您說您有一年的需求拉動，那麼第二季度就是一個週年紀念日。我真的認為，如果我們相信下半年的情況，那麼對 2024 年來說應該是一個好兆頭。

Fair enough. And moving on to the sell-in versus sell-through. And obviously, I understand what you're trying to do there, get the channel inventory down and so on and so forth, that's fair. But when I look at the Q1 guidance, that's a $105 million, that's sort of back to early 2020. So I mean, is it fair to say that you are going to be under shipping pretty materially to end demand in Q1?

很公平。接下來討論銷售與銷售完成之間的關係。顯然，我明白你想做什麼，降低渠道庫存等等，這是公平的。但是當我查看第一季的指引時，這是 1.05 億美元，這有點回到了 2020 年初。

Yes. I expect -- if you just think about it last year, from Q1 to Q3, we probably sell-through disconnect was around $32 million. So if you look at what happened in Q4, sell-through was higher than sell-in by about $8 million. I expect in Q1, at least a $15 million give and take, where sell-through will be higher than the sell-in. And then the balance will kind of adjust by Q2. And that's why the second half story.

是的。我預計——如果你回想一下去年，從第一季到第三季度，我們的銷售差距可能在 3,200 萬美元左右。因此，如果你看看第四季的情況，你會發現銷售額比銷售額高出約 800 萬美元。我預計第一季的成交額至少為 1500 萬美元，其中成交額將高於銷售額。然後平衡將在第二季進行調整。這是後半部的故事。

That's very helpful. Just one last one for Balu. Balu, obviously, with the percentage coming down with some of the other segments, automotive now, I think, has a real chance to shine, right? Because I mean, obviously, you're seeing growth there. Is it possible that automotive could become 10% of your revenues either this year or next year? Is that a possibility?

這非常有幫助。對 Balu 來說，這只是最後一個。 Balu，顯然，隨著其他一些領域的百分比下降，我認為汽車現在真正有機會大放異彩，對嗎？因為我的意思是，顯然你看到了那裡的成長。汽車業務有可能在今年或明年占到貴公司收入的 10% 嗎？有這種可能嗎？

No, not, it is a much slower market to develop. I would say that it will grow very nicely. We are expecting it to go from low single-digit millions last year to mid-single-digit millions, and it will continue to grow. But the real growth will come really in 2026 onwards because some of the designs will take much longer to develop. But where we will come back very strongly, I believe, is in all other areas, especially consumer and industrial. In consumer, the one thing I want to point out is we are continuing to gain share significantly. It's just not showing up because of the inventories in the channel and the weakness in the market. And there will be a time when people will start buying appliances. Certainly, they bought too much during the pandemic and the general weakness across the world has hurt us -- has hurt a lot of people, not just us.

不是，這個市場的發展速度慢很多。我想說它會長得很好。我們預計它將從去年的幾百萬低點增長至數百萬中位，並且還將繼續增長。但真正的成長要到 2026 年以後才會真正到來，因為有些設計的開發時間會更長。但我相信，我們將在所有其他領域，特別是消費和工業領域強勢回歸。在消費者領域，我想指出的一點是，我們的份額正在持續大幅成長。只是因為通路庫存和市場疲軟，它才沒有出現。人們總有一天會開始購買家用電器。當然，他們在疫情期間購買了太多東西，全球普遍的疲軟傷害了我們——傷害了很多人，而不僅僅是我們。

But it looks like the GDP growth in China and worldwide is going to be better than everybody anticipated. If you look at what the IMF is saying right now. So we are optimistic that, that will come back. More importantly, our share gains, you know that we are gaining share across many competitors in appliances. And on top of that, we are making a huge penetration with our BLDC motor chips, the BridgeSwitch. The combination of those 2 should really give us a springboard to get back in the appliances. And in the industrial space, the high power is doing very well. The home and building automation is doing extremely well. So I'm also very optimistic. Computer, we have a lot more share to grow into the notebook market. And even in cell phones, even though at the moment, there is a kind of a lull because not only of the weakness in demand, but also because some of the Chinese companies have moved to lower-end chargers, simply because that's what happens when the demand is low, they focus on cost.

但看起來中國和全球的 GDP 成長將優於所有人的預期。如果你看看國際貨幣基金組織現在說了什麼。因此，我們樂觀地認為，這種情況將會恢復。更重要的是，我們的市場份額正在成長，你知道，我們在家電領域的許多競爭對手中都佔據了主導地位。除此之外，我們也正在大力推廣我們的 BLDC 馬達晶片 BridgeSwitch。這兩者的結合確實可以為我們重返家用電器提供跳板。在工業領域，大功率表現非常好。家庭和樓宇自動化發展非常順利。所以我也非常樂觀。計算機方面，我們在筆記型電腦市場還有很大的發展空間。即使在手機領域，儘管目前也存在著一種低迷期，這不僅是因為需求疲軟，還因為一些中國公司已經轉向生產低端充電器，這僅僅是因為在需求低迷時就會發生這種情況，他們注重成本。

Having said that, the same companies are working on some really high-power charges, which tells me that it is temporary and they'll come back to higher power and higher performance type of products. So I think we have a lot of growth ahead of us. I mean I'm completely overlooking what's going on right now because it doesn't really reflect our long-term capability. I mean all of the shares wins will eventually turn into growth.

話雖如此，同樣的公司正在研究一些真正高功率的充電器，這告訴我這只是暫時的，他們會回到更高功率和更高性能類型的產品。所以我認為我們還有很大的發展空間。我的意思是我完全忽略了現在發生的事情，因為它並不能真正反映我們的長期能力。我的意思是所有股票收益最終都會轉化為成長。

We'll take our next question from David Williams with the Benchmark Company.

下一個問題由 Benchmark Company 的 David Williams 提出。

I guess just kind of from a high level, Balu, can you talk about where you are seeing areas of strength today, maybe areas that are a little stronger than you would have expected? What are the, I guess, the biggest bright spots that you see in the market currently?

我想，從高層次來看，Balu，您能談談目前您認為的優勢領域有哪些嗎，也許這些領域比您預期的要強一些？我認為，您認為目前市場上最大的亮點是什麼？

Currently, we are seeing a strong growth in home and building automation, the high-power products. These are renewables like solar and wind and power grid products like high-voltage DC transmission and also traction. Traction refers to electric locomotives.

目前，我們看到家庭和建築自動化、高功率產品等強勁成長。這些是太陽能和風能等再生能源以及高壓直流輸電和牽引等電網產品。牽引是指電力機車。

Now we are also seeing very strong activity in EVs, electric vehicles and also in appliances, but they won't turn into revenue overnight. We'll have to -- they have longer design cycles especially EVs.

現在我們也看到電動車、電動車輛以及家電領域的活動非常強勁，但它們不會在一夜之間轉化為收入。我們必須這樣做——它們有更長的設計週期，尤其是電動車。

But having said that, we have already gained significant share in the consumer market. And so when the inventory is depleted, we should see a rebound and also, it's been, as Sandeep mentioned, it means almost a year since the pandemic-driven demand for appliances has really overstimulated that area, and that should eventually come back to some normal consumption, and we are looking forward to that as well. I don't know the exact timing but I feel very good about those 2 markets. And then in computers, we are making inroads into notebooks and monitors. That should help us grow. As you can see, that's become at least for now 12% of our revenue, but it has been growing consistently from 5% over the last 3 years. And I think that also will be a growth area. Now cell phones, I think, will hold our own. The market itself has softened because people are not replenishing the phones as much. But we are seeing that market going more towards higher end, which will benefit us in terms of ASP.

但話雖如此，我們已經在消費市場上獲得了相當大的份額。因此，當庫存耗盡時，我們應該會看到反彈，而且正如桑迪普提到的那樣，這意味著自疫情引發的家電需求過度刺激該領域以來，已經過去了近一年的時間，最終應該會恢復到正常的消費水平，我們也期待著這一點。我不知道具體的時間，但我對這兩個市場感覺很好。在電腦領域，我們正在進軍筆記型電腦和顯示器領域。這應該有助於我們成長。正如您所看到的，這至少占我們目前收入的 12％，但過去 3 年裡一直從 5％ 穩步增長。我認為這也將是一個成長領域。我認為，現在手機將能夠維持我們自己的地位。由於人們不再大量補充手機，市場本身已經疲軟。但我們看到市場正逐漸走向高端，這將使我們在平均售價方面受益。

Okay. Fantastic. And then maybe any thoughts on the channel inventories that are out there in terms of what level they're looking to burn those down to. Is this -- do you think it's back towards normal levels that we saw pre-pandemic? Or do you sense that maybe they're trying to get down to maybe a higher level than we were previously. Just trying to understand how much inventory and channel inventory we burned out completely?

好的。極好的。然後也許您對現有的通路庫存有什麼想法，關於他們希望將其削減到什麼水平。您認為它已經恢復到疫情前的正常水平了嗎？或者您是否感覺到他們可能試圖降低到比以前更高的水平。只是想了解我們徹底燒毀了多少庫存和渠道庫存？

Yes. So if you really look at it, I would say we typically run channel inventory 8 weeks for us. Now if you look at it from an end market standpoint, the Communications segment, channel inventory seems to be coming at a give and take around that level, which is reflecting that the OEMs have kind of burned the inventory. And that's why if you remember some time back, we said that will be the first market to come back. Now the other areas are definitely elevated, and that's what I think will get normalized in Q1 and part of Q2. And that's why we start feeling very good about what will happen. If you look what happened in Q4, especially in the appliance area and air conditioning, Q4 typically tends to be a quarter when after Q3 things started ramping, while in fact, we had a significant decline, which leads us to believe that they are clearing out their inventory. And as they do that between Q4 and Q1, I think Q2 will start looking better for us.

是的。所以如果你認真看一下，我會說我們通常會為我們的通路庫存運行 8 週。現在，如果從終端市場的角度來看，通訊領域、通路庫存似乎處於左右搖擺的狀態，這反映出原始設備製造商已經消耗了庫存。這就是為什麼如果你還記得前陣子我們說過那會是第一個復甦的市場。現在其他領域的水平肯定有所提高，我認為這將在第一季和第二季的部分時間內正常化。這就是為什麼我們開始對即將發生的事情感到非常高興。如果你看看第四季度發生的情況，特別是在家電領域和空調領域，第四季度通常是在第三季度之後業務開始增長的一個季度，而事實上，我們出現了顯著的下滑，這讓我們相信他們正在清理庫存。隨著他們在第四季度和第一季之間這樣做，我認為第二季度對我們來說會開始變得更好。

And then typically, as whenever this happens, and we look -- whenever we come out of a downturn, we come out stronger. And if you look historically, if the second half bodes well as we are expecting it to, it will actually position us very, very well for 2024. And if you look at what happened in 2018, after 2018, when we saw the downturn first is exactly what happened, very similar to what we are expecting this time.

通常，每當這種情況發生時，我們都會走出低迷，變得更強大。如果你從歷史角度來看，如果下半年如我們預期的那樣好，那麼我們實際上將為 2024 年做好非常非常好的準備。

We'll take our next question from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna.

我們將回答 Susquehanna 的 Christopher Rolland 提出的下一個問題。

So I assume we should assume all segments down next quarter or perhaps you can give us some color as to force ranking them? It sounds like consumer might be the main culprit here. But I think that would be incredibly helpful. And then -- would you also expect all segments to be down year-over-year in '23 as well? Or do you think there's a chance one of those could be up?

因此，我認為我們應該假設下個季度所有細分市場都下降，或者您可以給我們一些強制對它們進行排名的細節？聽起來消費者可能是這方面的罪魁禍首。但我認為這會非常有幫助。然後—您是否還預計23年所有部門的銷售額都會比去年同期下降？或者您認為其中一個有可能發生嗎？

I think in Q1, basically, Industrial and consumer will be down more than the other 2. But as a result, the percentage of revenue what we are guiding to, you should see that communication and computer as a percentage of revenue will hold, which is why the mix we talked about.

我認為在第一季度，工業和消費領域的降幅將大於其他兩個領域。

As far as for the year, I would say you should see more downturn on a full basis in the consumer and industrial, and that's why I talked about a little bit of a mix headwind compared to the communication and computer segment.

就今年而言，我想說你應該會看到消費和工業領域出現更全面的下滑，這就是為什麼我談到與通訊和電腦領域相比，存在一些混合逆風。

Yes, that's simply because it corrected at first.

是的，那隻是因為它一開始就進行了修正。

Yes, exactly. And I would say at this point, with revenue expected to be down, I think, 40-plus percent into March. This has all hit you guys a little harder than others, at least thus far. So I kind of wanted to put all the pieces together there.

是的，確實如此。我想說的是，目前預計 3 月收入將下降 40% 以上。至少到目前為止，這一切對你們的打擊比對其他人更大一些。所以我想把所有的碎片都放在一起。

I know for communications, for example, you guys typically see it first. But what else is going on here in your opinion? Was there a greater than normal inventory build because you guys had availability of parts when others didn't. So people built? Or is it just the cyclicality of the end markets? If you were kind of to do a postmortem on why the drop was so much more significant than others? What are all the kind of main culprits you could point to?

例如，我知道對於通訊來說，你們通常會先看到它。但您認為這裡還發生了什麼事？由於你們有零件供應而其他人沒有，所以庫存量是否比平常更多？那麼人們建造了什麼？或者這只是終端市場的周期性現象？您是否想事後分析一下，為什麼這次下降比其他下降更為顯著？您能指出哪些主要的罪魁禍首？

That's a very good question. And there are several reasons why it's setting us harder. The first one is we always see the downturn before other people do. We talked about that. And also because we have one more layer of inventory that is we sell primarily to power supply manufacturers who then sell it to the OEM. So we get -- our gyrations are much bigger, if you will. The other one is if you look at 2/3 of our revenue at the beginning of the year, were from smartphone, PCs and appliances.

這是一個非常好的問題。有幾個原因導致它給我們帶來了更多困難。第一個是我們總是比其他人更早預見經濟衰退。我們討論過這個。而且因為我們有多一層庫存，我們主要賣給電源製造商，然後再由他們賣給 OEM。所以我們得到--如果你願意的話，我們的迴旋幅度就大得多。另一個是，如果你看看今年年初我們 2/3 的收入來自智慧型手機、個人電腦和家用電器。

And those areas have been hit much harder than areas like automotive, where we have, at this point, very little exposure. Hopefully, that will change over time. But -- so it has differentially hurt us more than other analog peers who most of them have very good exposure to automotive market. And the other thing is we did not implement a noncancelable, nonreturnable orders, or long-term agreements that many of our peers have done. And because we do value pricing, we didn't have as much increase in prices as most of our large peers.

這些領域受到的打擊比汽車等領域嚴重得多，目前我們對這些領域的關注很少。希望這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變。但是 - 因此，它對我們的傷害比其他模擬同行更大，他們中的大多數在汽車市場上都有很好的表現。另一件事是，我們沒有實施許多同行已經實施的不可取消、不可退貨的訂單或長期協議。而且由於我們採用價值定價，因此我們的價格漲幅並不像大多數大型同行那麼大。

In fact, if you look at the growth in 2022, a large portion of the growth was simply change in ASP. So you have to keep that in mind when you compare. And of course, the positive side of that is that we will recover first. And so I think we'll outperform the market when we recover. And if you go back to 2018, you can see the similarities. The second half was down for us in 2018, and we saw that before anybody else did. So we were down 4% in 2018, and the industry was up 11% that year. But the next 3 years, we significantly outperformed the industry because we came out faster and that allowed us -- and also we gained a lot of share during the downturn. So every downturn is an opportunity for us to gain share because we always invest for the future. In fact, we invest into the downturn. So that's why I try to not pay too much attention to the macro because I don't control the macro, but I pay attention to how much share gains we're getting. So those are the differences why we have seen a much larger change than our peers. Hopefully, that's helpful.

事實上，如果你看看 2022 年的成長，很大一部分成長只是 ASP 的變化。因此，比較時你必須記住這一點。當然，積極的一面是我們將首先恢復。因此我認為，當我們復甦時，我們的表現將優於市場。如果你回顧 2018 年，你會發現相似之處。 2018 年下半年我們的表現比較低迷，這一點我們比其他人更早意識到。因此，2018 年我們下降了 4%，而當年整個產業卻成長了 11%。但在接下來的 3 年裡，我們的表現明顯優於產業，因為我們的步伐更快，這讓我們在經濟低迷期間獲得了巨大的份額。因此，每次經濟衰退對我們來說都是增加市場份額的機會，因為我們總是為未來進行投資。事實上，我們在經濟低迷時期進行了投資。所以這就是為什麼我盡量不太關注宏觀，因為我無法控制宏觀，但我會關注我們獲得了多少份額收益。這些差異就是為什麼我們看到的變化比我們的同齡人更大。希望這對你有幫助。

We'll take our next question from Matt Ramsay with Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Matt Ramsay。

This is actually Ethan Potasnick on for Matt. I know there have been a bunch of questions regarding inventory in the channel. But I kind of want to ask a similar question a little differently. I was wondering if you guys had any sense of what you are under shipping and when you anticipate selling to true demand? And any expectations of what the shape of the recovery might look like as kind of see just rolling correction across segments kind of flows through?

這實際上是 Ethan Potasnick 代替 Matt 上場。我知道人們對渠道庫存存在著許多疑問。但我想以稍微不同的方式問一個類似的問題。我想知道你們是否清楚自己正在運送什麼以及預計何時能夠滿足真正的需求？您對經濟復甦的形態有何預期？

Okay. We have definitely under-shipped to the cellphone market until now, but it looks like the inventories are normalizing there, getting close to normal, at least at the (inaudible) level, it's already normalized, we think that's because our OEMs also have brought down the inventory.

好的。到目前為止，我們確實在手機市場上出貨不足，但看起來那裡的庫存正在恢復正常，接近正常，至少在（聽不清楚）水平上，它已經正常化了，我們認為那是因為我們的 OEM 也降低了庫存。

But in consumer, the demand slowdown came so quickly our customers were surprised how quickly that happens. So they are stuck with inventory at various levels at our distributors at [ODMs] and then, of course, at the OEM and also at the retail level. And that's what is painful at this point because the consumer is down so much. But it will come back. The question is when will those inventories normalize. Our best bet is sometime in Q2, it will normalize, so it will benefit us in the second half. We do expect Q2 to be better than Q1, but the second half and, of course, 2024 is where we will see the significant growth.

但在消費方面，需求放緩來得如此之快，我們的客戶對此感到驚訝。因此，他們在我們（ODM）分銷商處、當然還有 OEM 和零售層面都積壓了各種級別的庫存。這正是目前的痛苦之處，因為消費者的支出已經大幅下降。但它會回來的。問題是這些庫存何時才能恢復正常。我們最好的預測是在第二季的某個時候它會恢復正常，因此這將對我們在下半年有利。我們確實預計第二季度的表現會好於第一季度，但下半年，當然還有 2024 年，我們將看到顯著的成長。

In terms of industrial, the broad-based industrial, clearly, that is over inventory, and there is a slowdown in -- across the board. It's not as bad as consumer, but there is over inventory. And because of that, you can see industrial is down and there is inventory buildup at the distribution. The good news is the sell-through was only down 10% versus our sell-in. So that is also improving as we speak. So that's why we've been comfortable saying Q1 is where the bottom is likely to be.

就工業而言，廣泛的工業顯然存在庫存過剩問題，而且全領域都在放緩。情況不像消費者那麼糟糕，但庫存過剩。正因為如此，你可以看到工業下滑，而分銷環節庫存積壓。好消息是，銷量僅比我們的銷售量下降了 10%。因此，正如我們所說，這種情況也在不斷改善。這就是為什麼我們可以放心地說第一季可能是底部。

Okay. Got it. Got it. And then as my follow-up, how should we think about the GaN outlook for 2023? What types of penetration rates are you guys seeing, I guess, pre and post kind of this inventory correction?

好的。知道了。知道了。然後作為我的後續問題，我們該如何看待 2023 年 GaN 的前景？我猜，在這種庫存調整之前和之後，你們看到的滲透率是什麼樣的？

Yes. We think we'll grow GaN very nicely in 2023. In 2022, we didn't grow as much as we thought primarily because most of our designs, GaN designs were in smartphone chargers. And obviously, that market didn't do very well. In spite of that, we grew some, we grew marginally. But in 2023, the design wins have expanded to many other areas, including consumer and industrial and, of course, computer. As a result, we expect to see a significant growth in GaN going forward.

是的。我們認為 2023 年 GaN 將會實現非常好的成長。顯然，那個市場表現不佳。儘管如此，我們還是取得了一些成長，雖然成長幅度不大。但到 2023 年，設計勝利已經擴展到許多其他領域，包括消費和工業，當然還有電腦。因此，我們預計未來 GaN 將實現顯著成長。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Auguste Richard with Northland.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Northland 的 Auguste Richard。

Yes. Just looking back at '21, you had very strong growth. Could you parse out how much of that was units versus ASP? Typically, you guys have 5% ASP decline annually. And I'm just wondering what that -- also what that looks like today?

是的。回顧 21 年，你們實現了非常強勁的成長。可以分析一下其中有多少是單位數，有多少是 ASP 嗎？通常情況下，你們的平均售價每年會下降 5%。我只是想知道那──今天看起來是什麼樣子的？

So in 2021, unlike many of our peers, we didn't do significant price increases. Obviously, to the extent we are pricing our products at value, there is a benefit to that. And we did benefit somewhat from that, but nothing like our peers. I don't know the exact numbers, but as we said, we base it on the product -- so the components we replace.

因此在 2021 年，與許多同行不同，我們沒有大幅提價。顯然，只要我們按照價值來定價我們的產品，那麼這樣做是有好處的。我們確實從中受益匪淺，但與我們的同行相比，我們受益匪淺。我不知道具體的數字，但正如我們所說，我們根據產品來確定——所以我們會更換組件。

So I couldn't tell you the exact number. But all I can say is it's far less than most of our peers who did a very, very strong increase in price.

所以我無法告訴你確切的數字。但我只能說，這比我們大多數同行大幅提價的幅度要小得多。

And how is pricing today? Or are you reverting back to historic norms and normal price decreases? Or how is that going, given the weakness in demand?

今天的物價怎麼樣？或者您正在恢復歷史常態和正常的價格下降？或者說，鑑於需求疲軟，情況會如何？

Well, I think the pricing will normalize this year. You have to understand that for 2 years, we didn't have to give any annual price reduction. So in some ways, that helped us quite a bit. But going forward, I think things will normalize because supply situation is getting better.

嗯，我認為今年定價將會正常化。您必須了解，兩年來我們沒有給予任何年度降價。所以從某種程度上來說，這對我們有很大幫助。但展望未來，我認為情況將會正常化，因為供應狀況正在改善。

But one thing does the input costs still have a very significant upward pressure, especially in the front end. So I think that's the tension that is going on right now, and we do value pricing. So depending on how we see the value pricing, we will stay competitive. But I think the input costs are still having pricing pressure.

但有一點是肯定的，那就是投入成本仍然有很大的上漲壓力，尤其是在前端。所以我認為這就是目前正在發生的緊張局勢，我們確實重視定價。因此，根據我們如何看待價值定價，我們將保持競爭力。但我認為投入成本仍帶來定價壓力。

Yes, that will prevent the market, not just us from lowering prices very much because input costs are continuing to go up.

是的，這將阻止市場（不僅僅是我們）大幅降低價格，因為投入成本正在持續上升。

Got it. And then just last one for me. When you think about '22, in consumer, how much of that business is appliances?

知道了。對我來說，只剩下最後一個了。當您想到 22 歲時，在消費者方面，家電業務佔比有多少？

I mean, appliances is 85%, 90%...

我的意思是，家用電器佔85%、90%…

Consumer?

消費者？

Consumer, yes. That is broken into major, comfort and small, 3 buckets.

是的，消費者。它分為主要、舒適和小三個類別。

And we have a follow-up question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們還有 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg 的後續問題。

Yes. Sandeep, I was hoping you could just help me a little bit with the math here. So I'm just looking at revenue growth since 2019. And by adjusting for that $65 million that you called out, kind of excess channel inventory, I mean, it looks like the revenue will be growing about 12% a year. It's kind of interesting. If you do adjust for that $65 million, it's almost exactly 12% a year. So I mean, is that kind of how we should just look at the business going forward? I know that your long-term target is obviously within that range. But -- it's so interesting -- yes, go ahead.

是的。 Sandeep，我希望你能在這裡幫我做一點數學題。所以我只看 2019 年以來的收入成長情況。這挺有意思的。如果你確實針對那 6500 萬美元進行調整，那麼每年的利率幾乎正好是 12%。所以我的意思是，我們是不是應該這樣看待未來的業務呢？我知道你的長期目標顯然在這個範圍內。但是 — — 這太有趣了 — — 是的，繼續吧。

It's a great observation. Low double-digit growth is the model. But whenever these gyrations happen, you know we have -- unfortunately, whenever the downturn comes, it seems to happen in the middle of the year, and it affects 2 years of growth. But if you look what happens, so we -- for 2 years, we'll be really bad in growth, then we will do couple of years better than our model. But if you look on the long term, we come pretty close to the double-digit growth.

這是一個非常棒的觀察。低兩位數成長就是典型。但每當這些波動發生時，你知道，不幸的是，每當經濟衰退來臨時，它似乎都發生在年中，並且影響兩年的成長。但如果你看看會發生什麼，那麼我們 - 兩年內，我們的成長會非常糟糕，然後我們的表現會比我們的模型好幾年。但如果從長遠來看，我們已經非常接近兩位數的成長。

And that concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Joe Shiffler for any additional or closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回喬·希夫勒 (Joe Shiffler)，讓他做任何補充或結束語。

All right. We'll leave it there. Thanks, everyone, for listening. There will be a replay of this call available on our investor website, investors.power.com. Thanks again, and good afternoon.

好的。我們就把它留在那裡。謝謝大家的聆聽。我們的投資者網站 investors.power.com 上將提供本次電話會議的重播。再次感謝，下午好。

And that concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。