菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Fourth Quarter 2018 and Year-End Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2018 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us.

歡迎，並感謝您加入我們。

Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2018 fourth quarter and full year results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含有關我們 2018 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息。

You may access the release on www.pmi.com or the PMI Investor Relations app.

您可以在 www.pmi.com 或 PMI Investor Relations 應用程序上訪問新聞稿。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced-risk products, or RRPs, as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

術語表，包括降低風險產品或 RRP 的定義，以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國 GAAP 措施的對賬，位於今天網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾，這些幻燈片已發佈在我們的網站上。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。

I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

It's now my pleasure to introduce André Calantzopoulos, our Chief Executive Officer.

現在我很高興介紹我們的首席執行官 André Calantzopoulos。

Martin King, our Chief Financial Officer, will join André for the question-and-answer period.

我們的首席財務官 Martin King 將與 André 一起參加問答環節。

André?

安德烈？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝尼克，歡迎女士們先生們。

I would like to begin with some general thoughts on our performance in 2018.

我想首先對我們 2018 年的表現進行一些總體思考。

We achieved robust results from our combustible tobacco portfolio and nearly doubled our heated tobacco unit in-market sales volume, driven by growth in all IQOS markets.

在所有 IQOS 市場增長的推動下，我們的可燃煙草產品組合取得了強勁的業績，並且我們的加熱煙草部門的市場銷量幾乎翻了一番。

We fell short of our initial full year net revenue growth target provided in February last year, which was almost entirely attributable to lower-than-anticipated IQOS consumer acquisition in Japan and related distributor heated tobacco unit inventory adjustments.

我們未能達到去年 2 月設定的初始全年淨收入增長目標，這幾乎完全歸因於日本 IQOS 消費者收購低於預期以及相關分銷商加熱煙草部門庫存調整。

In our view, this overshadowed an otherwise robust financial and strategic performance across the business.

我們認為，這掩蓋了整個企業穩健的財務和戰略業績。

Clearly, and understandably, this contributed to the overall decline in our share price, which was also pressured by broader market concerns surrounding the industry and the consumer staples sector generally.

顯然，可以理解的是，這導致了我們股價的整體下跌，這也受到圍繞該行業和消費必需品行業的更廣泛市場擔憂的壓力。

While we recognize that the market is the ultimate judge, we find it difficult to understand the share price impact of certain developments in the industry last year, particularly those that were very U.S.-centric and arguably, less relevant to our international business.

雖然我們認識到市場是最終的判斷者，但我們發現很難理解去年該行業某些發展對股價的影響，尤其是那些非常以美國為中心並且可以說與我們的國際業務不太相關的發展。

Entering 2019, I believe that we have laid the foundation for a better business performance this year and beyond, thanks to significant investments in product portfolio development and organizational capabilities, including a state-of-the-art digital infrastructure to fuel our expansion.

進入 2019 年，我相信，由於對產品組合開發和組織能力的重大投資，包括最先進的數字基礎設施來推動我們的擴張，我們已經為今年及以後更好的業務績效奠定了基礎。

As I will cover in my remarks in a moment, the underlying strength of our combustible product portfolio remains undoubtedly intact, and our smoke-free products are the catalyst to accelerate our overall business growth.

正如我稍後將在評論中提到的那樣，我們可燃產品組合的潛在實力無疑完好無損，而我們的無菸產品是加速我們整體業務增長的催化劑。

Let me now take you through the main elements of our full year results, starting with volume.

現在讓我向您介紹我們全年業績的主要內容，從銷量開始。

Our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume declined by 2.1%, notably reflecting the reduction in distributor heated tobacco unit inventory in Japan, which we explained during our third quarter 2018 results call.

我們的香煙和加熱煙草單位總出貨量下降了 2.1%，這主要反映了日本分銷商加熱煙草單位庫存的減少，我們在 2018 年第三季度的業績電話會議上對此進行了解釋。

Excluding estimated net distributor inventory movements, total shipment volume was flat, our best annual performance since 2012, with strong growth in heated tobacco units offsetting a decline in cigarette.

不包括估計的淨分銷商庫存變動，總出貨量持平，這是我們自 2012 年以來的最佳年度表現，加熱煙草單位的強勁增長抵消了捲菸的下降。

This performance compares favorably to an estimated decline in total industry volume of 1.6% on the same basis.

這一表現優於在同一基礎上估計的行業總銷量下降 1.6%。

Our cigarette shipment volume declined by 2.8%.

我們的捲煙發貨量下降了 2.8%。

The decrease was due mainly to lower industry volume, notably in Russia and Saudi Arabia, coupled with the impact of consumer switching from cigarettes to heated tobacco product, particularly in Japan, Korea and the EU Region.

下降的主要原因是行業銷量下降，特別是在俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯，以及消費者從香煙轉向加熱煙草產品的影響，特別是在日本、韓國和歐盟地區。

Increased shipment volume, notably in Pakistan and Turkey, driven by higher industry volume, and in Thailand, driven by higher market share, served as a partial offset.

出貨量增加，特別是在巴基斯坦和土耳其，受行業銷量增加的推動，以及在泰國，受更高市場份額的推動，起到了部分抵消作用。

Heated tobacco unit shipment volume increased by 14.2% to 41.4 billion units despite estimated net distributor inventory movements in Japan of approximately 17 billion units.

儘管據估計日本分銷商的淨庫存變動約為 170 億支，但加熱煙草單位出貨量增長了 14.2% 至 414 億支。

More importantly, our in-market sales volume for heated tobacco units nearly doubled, reaching 44.3 billion units, a significant achievement driven by all IQOS launch markets, including Japan and Korea.

更重要的是，我們加熱煙草產品的市場銷量幾乎翻了一番，達到 443 億支，這是由包括日本和韓國在內的所有 IQOS 發布市場推動的一項重大成就。

Turning to our 2018 financial results.

轉向我們 2018 年的財務業績。

Net revenues increased by 3.4%, excluding currency, driven by strong pricing of our combustible tobacco portfolio and heated tobacco unit shipment volume growth.

淨收入增長 3.4%，不包括貨幣在內，這得益於我們可燃煙草產品組合的強勁定價和加熱煙草單位出貨量的增長。

The users product net revenues reached $4.1 billion or 13.8% of total net revenues, with IQOS devices and accessories accounting for approximately $0.9 billion or 22%.

用戶產品淨收入達到 41 億美元，佔總淨收入的 13.8%，其中 IQOS 設備和配件約佔 9 億美元，佔 22%。

For reference, last year distributor inventory adjustment in Japan of an estimated 4.5 billion units adversely impacted our total net revenue growth, excluding currency, by approximately 1.2 points.

作為參考，去年日本經銷商庫存調整估計為 45 億台，對我們的總淨收入增長（不包括貨幣）產生了約 1.2 個百分點的不利影響。

The move to highly inflationary accounting in Argentina further impacted growth by approximately 0.6 points.

阿根廷轉向高度通貨膨脹的會計製度進一步影響了約 0.6 個百分點的增長。

Our 2018 combustible tobacco pricing variance represented 7.6% of prior year combustible tobacco net revenues, with positive contributions from all 6 of our regions.

我們 2018 年的可燃煙草定價差異佔上一年可燃煙草淨收入的 7.6%，我們所有 6 個地區都做出了積極貢獻。

Pricing was particularly strong in Canada, Germany, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia.

加拿大、德國、印度尼西亞、菲律賓和俄羅斯的定價尤其強勁。

The strong pricing performance in Russia benefited from a very favorable comparison following essentially no net pricing in the market in 2017.

在 2017 年市場基本沒有淨定價之後，俄羅斯強勁的定價表現得益於非常有利的比較。

Also, in the Philippines, we benefited from improved industry pricing dynamics following the significant decrease in nontax product availability.

此外，在菲律賓，我們受益於非稅產品可用性大幅下降後行業定價動態的改善。

On a currency-neutral basis, adjusted operating income was essentially flat, while our adjusted operating income margin decreased by 1.3 points.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，調整後的營業收入基本持平，而我們調整後的營業收入利潤率下降了 1.3 個百分點。

The margin decline primarily reflected the impact of our net incremental RRP investments of approximately $600 million.

利潤率下降主要反映了我們約 6 億美元的淨增量 RRP 投資的影響。

For reference, the factors mentioned previously for Japan and Argentina had an adverse combined impact on our currency-neutral adjusted operating income growth and margin of approximately 3.3 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.

作為參考，前面提到的日本和阿根廷因素對我們的貨幣中性調整後營業收入增長和利潤率分別產生了約 3.3 和 1.1 個百分點的不利綜合影響。

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share of $5.10 increased by 8.1%, driven by both a lower effective tax rate and net interest expense.

我們調整後的攤薄每股收益為 5.10 美元，增長了 8.1%，這主要得益於較低的有效稅率和淨利息支出。

Excluding adverse currency of $0.11, which occurred in the second half of the year, adjusted diluted EPS increased by 10.4%.

剔除下半年發生的不利貨幣 0.11 美元，調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 10.4%。

The lower effective tax rate and net interest expense were both driven by the 2017 U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

較低的有效稅率和淨利息支出均受到 2017 年美國減稅和就業法案的推動。

Our 2018 effective tax rate decreased to approximately 23%, slightly better than the 24% that we had assumed as part of our guidance in November and around 5 to 6 points below our effective tax rate in the years prior to tax reform.

我們 2018 年的有效稅率下降至約 23%，略好於我們在 11 月份作為指導的一部分所假設的 24%，比稅改前幾年的有效稅率低約 5 至 6 個百分點。

The decrease in net interest expense resulted from greater flexibility on cash repatriation and capital structure optimization provided by the reform.

淨利息支出的減少是由於改革為現金匯回和資本結構優化提供了更大的靈活性。

Our operating cash flow of $9.5 billion increased by over $500 million or 6.4%, principally driven by higher net earnings, partly offset by unfavorable currency.

我們 95 億美元的經營現金流增加了 5 億多美元或 6.4%，主要是由於淨收益增加，部分被不利的貨幣所抵消。

Capital expenditures of $1.4 billion came in below our full year assumption, primarily reflecting continued improvement in heated tobacco unit investment efficiency as equipment productivity rises.

14 億美元的資本支出低於我們的全年假設，這主要反映了隨著設備生產率的提高，加熱煙草裝置的投資效率持續提高。

Turning now to market share.

現在轉向市場份額。

Our total international share of 28.4% increased by 0.5 points, our highest organic growth since 2008, driven by heated tobacco units, which reached a share of 1.6%.

我們的國際總份額為 28.4%，增加了 0.5 個百分點，這是我們自 2008 年以來的最高有機增長，這主要得益於加熱煙草部門的推動，其份額達到 1.6%。

Remarkably, share grew in all 6 of our regions, underlining the strength of our combined portfolio.

值得注意的是，我們所有 6 個地區的份額均有所增長，凸顯了我們組合產品組合的實力。

Our share of the international cigarette category was flat at 27.4%, demonstrating our success in maintaining cigarette market leadership while transitioning our product portfolio and transforming our overall organization.

我們在國際香菸類別中的份額持平，為 27.4%，這表明我們成功地保持了香煙市場的領先地位，同時轉變了我們的產品組合併轉變了我們的整體組織。

Further, despite over-indexed IQOS out-switching and the impact of the sizable volume contraction in Saudi Arabia during the first half of the year, Marlboro's international share of the cigarette category was also flat, reflecting share growth in a number of markets, including France, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey.

此外，儘管今年上半年 IQOS 過度指數化以及沙特阿拉伯銷量大幅收縮的影響，萬寶路在捲菸類別中的國際份額也持平，反映出許多市場的份額增長，包括法國、印度尼西亞、墨西哥、菲律賓和土耳其。

With the performance of IQOS being top-of-mind for investors, let me also highlight some of the latest results and developments, beginning with an overall view, followed by some market-specific commentary.

由於 IQOS 的性能是投資者最關心的問題，讓我也強調一些最新的結果和發展，首先是總體觀點，然後是一些針對特定市場的評論。

As seen on this slide, the total estimated number of IQOS users reached 9.6 million in the fourth quarter, continuing the positive quarterly sequential growth trend.

如這張幻燈片所示，第四季度 IQOS 用戶總數估計達到 960 萬，延續了積極的季度環比增長趨勢。

Importantly, nearly 70% of the total, an estimated 6.6 million users, have already stopped smoking by switching to IQOS, while the balance are in conversion.

重要的是，近 70% 的用戶（估計有 660 萬用戶）已經通過改用 IQOS 戒菸，而其餘的人正在轉換中。

IQOS user growth in the quarter was especially driven by the EU Region and Russia.

本季度 IQOS 用戶增長主要受到歐盟地區和俄羅斯的推動。

Approximately 1/3 of the total IQOS user base is now in markets outside Asia, which highlights the broadening geographic success of the brand's proposition.

IQOS 總用戶群中約有 1/3 現在位於亞洲以外的市場，這凸顯了該品牌主張在更廣泛的地域範圍內取得的成功。

As announced last year, we began the global launch of our IQOS 3 devices in mid-November, starting with our own retail and e-commerce channels.

正如去年宣布的那樣，我們從 11 月中旬開始在全球推出 IQOS 3 設備，首先是我們自己的零售和電子商務渠道。

Though still early, as full device availability and expansion to our main distribution channels has only occurred in the past couple of weeks, we're very pleased with the initial consumer reaction to the new device lineup across IQOS markets.

儘管還為時過早，但由於設備的全面可用性和對我們主要分銷渠道的擴展僅在過去幾週才發生，我們對消費者對 IQOS 市場新設備陣容的初步反應感到非常滿意。

I will now turn to the performance of IQOS in specific geographies, beginning with Japan.

我現在將轉向 IQOS 在特定地區的表現，首先是日本。

As discussed during our earnings call in October, there were sizable trade and consumer purchases of both cigarettes and heated tobacco units across the industry during the third quarter in advance of the excise tax-driven price increases on October 1. This led to a distortion in heated tobacco unit in-market sales in both the third and fourth quarters.

正如我們在 10 月份的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，在 10 月 1 日消費稅驅動的價格上漲之前，第三季度整個行業都有大量的捲煙和加熱煙草單位的貿易和消費者購買。這導致了扭曲第三和第四季度加熱煙草部門的市場銷售。

The same distortion is reflected in our share progression between the third and fourth quarter.

同樣的扭曲反映在我們第三季度和第四季度之間的份額增長中。

When equalized for the purchase patterns, our estimated share in each quarter was approximately 15.4%.

當購買模式均衡時，我們估計每個季度的份額約為 15.4%。

Looking to 2019.

展望2019年。

We are encouraged that the favorable heated tobacco unit weekly offtake share trend that we observed during the fourth quarter continued in January.

我們感到鼓舞的是，我們在第四季度觀察到的有利的加熱煙草單位每周承銷份額趨勢在 1 月份繼續存在。

We anticipate increased competitive activity this year, including new heated tobacco product launches.

我們預計今年的競爭活動會增加，包括推出新的加熱煙草產品。

This may accelerate overall category growth, in part by reducing the consumption dilution observed with current competitive device ownership, which I will show shortly.

這可能會加速整體類別的增長，部分原因是通過減少當前競爭性設備所有權所觀察到的消費稀釋，我將在稍後展示這一點。

In this context, we believe that the new IQOS 3 and its continued superior sensorial experience, in combination with the range of initiatives that we rolled out during the later part of last year, including the mid-priced HEETS brand, will allow us to restore growth.

在此背景下，我們相信新的 IQOS 3 及其持續卓越的感官體驗，結合我們在去年下半年推出的一系列舉措，包括中價位的 HEETS 品牌，將使我們能夠恢復生長。

Importantly, the convenience store channel, which accounts for the vast majority of our volume, began selling IQOS 3 and IQOS 3 MULTI as of last week.

重要的是，占我們銷量絕大部分的便利店渠道從上週開始銷售 IQOS 3 和 IQOS 3 MULTI。

But already, IQOS 3 has significantly increased the number of new users acquired by IQOS compared to the 2018 monthly average prior to IQOS 3 launch.

但是，與 IQOS 3 發布之前的 2018 年月平均水平相比，IQOS 3 已經顯著增加了 IQOS 獲得的新用戶數量。

Furthermore, the national rollout of the HEETS brand, which is currently only available in geographies with approximately 25% of the country's tobacco consumers, will begin in the coming weeks.

此外，HEETS 品牌目前僅在擁有該國約 25% 煙草消費者的地區推出，將於未來幾週內開始在全國推出。

We remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the heated tobacco category in Japan and of our brand specifically.

我們對日本加熱煙草品類尤其是我們品牌的長期增長潛力保持樂觀。

Japanese adult smokers continue to show a strong and growing interest in heated tobacco product as demonstrated by device ownership and past 7-days' usage trend.

從設備擁有量和過去 7 天的使用趨勢可以看出，日本成年吸煙者繼續對加熱煙草產品表現出強烈且不斷增長的興趣。

Based on the latest available data, over 45% of Japanese tobacco consumers owned at least one device, while over 40% reported using a heated tobacco product over the past 7 days.

根據最新的可用數據，超過 45% 的日本煙草消費者至少擁有一台設備，而超過 40% 的人表示在過去 7 天內使用過加熱煙草產品。

While these indicators of category interest are not yet fully reflected in the latest category share of consumption of around 23%, this is understandable for a couple of reasons.

雖然這些品類興趣指標尚未完全反映在最新的品類消費份額約 23% 中，但出於幾個原因，這是可以理解的。

First, switching takes time, with a lag between device purchase, use and the full conversion that maximizes heated tobacco share.

首先，轉換需要時間，設備購買、使用和最大化加熱煙草份額的完全轉換之間存在滯後。

This is easiest to see through the end of 2017, when IQOS was essentially the only product on the market at scale.

這在 2017 年底最容易看出，當時 IQOS 基本上是市場上唯一規模化的產品。

Second, and more importantly, other heated tobacco product, which became more broadly available over the course of '17 and 2018, have been far less effective than IQOS in fully converting adult smokers.

其次，更重要的是，其他加熱煙草產品在 17 年和 2018 年期間變得更加廣泛，但在完全轉化成年吸煙者方面遠不如 IQOS 有效。

This is due to relatively low taste satisfaction, leading to mainly situational use that further dilutes the category share relative to device ownership.

這是由於相對較低的口味滿意度，導致主要是情境使用，進一步稀釋了相對於設備所有權的類別份額。

Lower conversion effectiveness is also generating some hesitation among more conservative cigarette smokers to enter the category at this stage.

較低的轉換效率也讓更保守的捲煙吸煙者對現階段進入該類別產生了一些猶豫。

Many users of competitive devices have never tried IQOS, and certain IQOS users also own competitive devices.

許多競品用戶從未嘗試過IQOS，部分IQOS用戶也擁有競品。

Both groups represent great opportunities for us, with IQOS 3 and IQOS 3 MULTI.

IQOS 3 和 IQOS 3 MULTI 對我們來說都是巨大的機會。

Over time, as competitive products improve and more heated tobacco users experience the relative benefits of IQOS, particularly those who began their heated tobacco journey with a competitive product, we expect the gap between total category share and the level of device ownership to narrow.

隨著時間的推移，隨著競爭產品的改進和更多的加熱煙草用戶體驗到 IQOS 的相對好處，尤其是那些使用競爭產品開始加熱煙草之旅的用戶，我們預計總類別份額與設備擁有水平之間的差距會縮小。

Turning to Korea.

轉向韓國。

Fourth quarter share for HEETS of 8.5% increased by 3 points compared to the same period in 2017 or by 1.1 points sequentially.

HEETS 第四季度的份額為 8.5%，與 2017 年同期相比增加了 3 個百分點，比上一季度增加了 1.1 個百分點。

It should be noted that our share in the quarter was distorted by trade inventory movements ahead of the change in health warnings on heated tobacco products in late December.

應該指出的是，在 12 月下旬加熱煙草產品的健康警告發生變化之前，我們在本季度的份額受到貿易庫存變動的影響。

We are pleased with our share performance, particularly given the backdrop of additional competitive activity in the heated tobacco category as the year progressed as well as the confusion among some adult smokers caused by the Korean FDA's comments last year regarding the tar generated by heated tobacco products.

我們對我們的股票表現感到滿意，特別是考慮到隨著時間的推移，加熱煙草類別的競爭活動越來越多，以及韓國 FDA 去年關於加熱煙草產品產生的焦油的評論導致一些成年吸煙者感到困惑.

In-market sales volume of -- for HEETS increased slightly on a sequential basis to 1.5 billion units.

HEETS 的市場銷量環比略有增長，達到 15 億台。

Looking to 2019, IQOS remains the preeminent brand in the category, with HEETS holding over 75% category share in the fourth quarter.

展望 2019 年，IQOS 仍然是該品類中的佼佼者，HEETS 在第四季度佔據了超過 75% 的品類份額。

This position has been reinforced by the launch of our new devices, giving us confidence in our ability to grow HEETS volume and share further.

我們新設備的推出加強了這一地位，使我們對我們擴大 HEETS 數量和進一步分享的能力充滿信心。

In the European Union Region, fourth quarter share for HEETS reached 1.7% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit industry volume, an increase of 1.1 points compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, supported by all IQOS markets.

在歐盟地區，在所有 IQOS 市場的支持下，HEETS 第四季度佔捲菸和加熱煙草單位行業總銷量的 1.7%，比 2017 年第四季度增長 1.1 個百分點。

On a sequential basis, share growth accelerated in the quarter, increasing by 0.5 points.

按順序計算，本季度份額增長加快，增長了 0.5 個百分點。

It is worth noting that IQOS is only present in geographic areas representing approximately 47% of industry total volume in the region.

值得注意的是，IQOS 僅出現在佔該地區行業總量約 47% 的地理區域。

The favorable share momentum reflects continued growth in the total number of IQOS users, which reached nearly 1.8 million by year-end.

良好的份額勢頭反映了 IQOS 用戶總數的持續增長，到年底達到近 180 萬。

Importantly, as of late January, IQOS 3 is finally fully available in essentially all IQOS markets across the region.

重要的是，截至 1 月下旬，IQOS 3 終於在該地區幾乎所有 IQOS 市場全面上市。

Our HEETS share growth in the EU Region was driven by a number of markets, notably Greece, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Italy, Poland and Germany.

我們在歐盟地區的 HEETS 份額增長受到許多市場的推動，尤其是希臘、葡萄牙、捷克共和國、意大利、波蘭和德國。

As we have said before, the speed of IQOS adoption will vary by market.

正如我們之前所說，IQOS 的採用速度因市場而異。

This reflects factors such as the underlying disposition of adult smokers to use and recommend innovative tobacco products as well as the regulations that apply to reduced-risk products, such as those that impact our ability to communicate to adult smokers about better alternatives to continued cigarette smoking.

這反映了成年吸煙者使用和推薦創新煙草產品的潛在傾向以及適用於降低風險產品的法規等因素，例如影響我們與成年吸煙者就持續吸煙的更好替代品進行交流的能力的因素.

Despite related constraints in certain geographies, IQOS is growing across all EU launch markets, and the fourth quarter accelerations auger well for 2019.

儘管某些地區存在相關限制，但 IQOS 在所有歐盟發布市場都在增長，第四季度的加速預示著 2019 年的良好發展。

In Russia, the strong sequential performance of IQOS continued in the fourth quarter, with HEETS market share up by 0.7 points to 1.8% of the total number of IQOS users, reaching 0.8 million.

在俄羅斯，第四季度 IQOS 的強勁環比表現延續，HEETS 市場份額上升 0.7 個百分點，佔 IQOS 用戶總數的 1.8%，達到 80 萬。

This performance is impressive given the fact that IQOS is present in only 7 cities, where the average fourth quarter share for HEETS was nearly 8%, with share in Moscow approaching double digits.

這一表現令人印象深刻，因為 IQOS 僅在 7 個城市出現，其中 HEETS 第四季度的平均份額接近 8%，其中莫斯科的份額接近兩位數。

This primarily reflects increased adult smoker interest in and understanding and acceptance of IQOS as well as our targeted approach to geographic and channel expansion, which has underpinned an improvement in IQOS conversion rates and consumer experience.

這主要反映了成年吸煙者對 IQOS 的興趣、理解和接受度增加，以及我們有針對性地進行地理和渠道擴展，這為 IQOS 轉化率和消費者體驗的改善奠定了基礎。

Given our success in the existing large cities, we are now expanding into additional geographic areas.

鑑於我們在現有大城市的成功，我們現在正在擴展到其他地理區域。

Before I turn to our 2019 outlook, let me remind you of the 3-year financial growth targets that we outlined during our Investor Day last September.

在我轉向 2019 年展望之前，讓我提醒您我們在去年 9 月的投資者日上概述的 3 年財務增長目標。

For the 2019 to 2021 period, we are targeting currency-neutral compound annual growth of at least 5% of net -- for net revenues and at least 8% for adjusted diluted earnings per share.

在 2019 年至 2021 年期間，我們的目標是淨收入的貨幣中性複合年增長率至少為 5%，調整後的稀釋後每股收益至少為 8%。

As detailed in today's press release, we have adjusted the formulation of our annual EPS guidance to reflect the difficulty in determining with precision the speed at which adult smokers will adopt reduced-risk products.

正如今天的新聞稿中詳述的那樣，我們調整了年度 EPS 指南的製定，以反映準確確定成年吸煙者採用低風險產品的速度的難度。

At the beginning of each year, we will now forecast our annual reported diluted EPS and the related currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth rate by reference to a minimum threshold of expected performance.

在每年年初，我們現在將參考預期業績的最低門檻預測我們的年度報告稀釋每股收益和相關貨幣中性調整後稀釋每股收益增長率。

As each year unfolds, we intend to provide greater detail.

隨著每一年的展開，我們打算提供更多的細節。

For 2019, we forecast reported diluted earnings per share to be at least $5.37 at prevailing exchange rates compared to reported diluted earnings per share of $5.08 in 2018.

對於 2019 年，我們預測報告的攤薄每股收益按現行匯率計算至少為 5.37 美元，而 2018 年報告的攤薄每股收益為 5.08 美元。

Excluding an unfavorable currency impact at prevailing exchange rates of approximately $0.14 per share, this forecast represents a projected increase of at least 8% versus adjusted diluted earnings per share of $5.10 in 2018.

排除以每股約 0.14 美元的現行匯率計算的不利貨幣影響，與 2018 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 5.10 美元相比，這一預測預計至少增長 8%。

Our 2019 forecast assumes currency-neutral net revenue growth of at least 5%, which includes an expected adverse impact of approximately 0.6 points due to the move to highly inflationary accounting in Argentina.

我們 2019 年的預測假設貨幣中性淨收入增長至少 5%，其中包括由於阿根廷轉向高通貨膨脹會計而產生的約 0.6 個百分點的預期不利影響。

We expect IQOS and heated tobacco unit volume growth, in particular, to be the key driver of this growth.

我們預計 IQOS 和加熱煙草單位銷量的增長將成為這一增長的主要驅動力。

Combustible tobacco pricing will remain an important contributor, underpinned by the broadly rational tobacco excise tax environment and mitigating the impact of the anticipated combustible product volume decline.

可燃煙草定價仍將是一個重要因素，這得益於廣泛合理的煙草消費稅環境，並減輕了預期可燃產品銷量下降的影響。

As noted earlier, we recorded an exceptional pricing variance in 2018 that creates a challenging pricing comparison this year.

如前所述，我們在 2018 年記錄了異常的定價差異，這導致今年的定價比較具有挑戰性。

We expect our average pricing variance over the 2018 and '19 2-year period to be in line with our average annual pricing variance from 2008 to 2017.

我們預計我們在 2018 年和 19 兩年期間的平均定價差異將與我們從 2008 年到 2017 年的平均年度定價差異一致。

We anticipate the total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume decline of approximately 1.5% to 2% in 2019.

我們預計 2019 年捲菸和加熱煙草的總出貨量將下降約 1.5% 至 2%。

This compares favorably to an estimated total industry decline of around 2.5% to 3% for the year.

這與今年估計的行業總下降約 2.5% 至 3% 相比是有利的。

Given the challenge of forecasting, with precision, heated tobacco unit shipment volumes, we are not providing a specific 2019 target at this early stage of the year.

鑑於精確預測加熱煙草單位出貨量的挑戰，我們不會在今年的這個早期階段提供具體的 2019 年目標。

That said, we expect positive volume contributions from all IQOS markets in 2019, and we remain confident in our shipment volume target of 90 billion to 100 billion units by 2021.

也就是說，我們預計 2019 年所有 IQOS 市場都將做出積極的銷量貢獻，並且我們對到 2021 年 900 億至 1000 億件的出貨量目標充滿信心。

Turning to our cost base.

轉向我們的成本基礎。

Our efforts to deliver over $1 billion in annualized cost efficiencies by 2021 are already underway, led by important initiatives related to productivity, zero-based budgeting, a project-based organization model and other cost reduction opportunities.

我們已經開始努力到 2021 年實現超過 10 億美元的年化成本效率，這由與生產力、零基預算、基於項目的組織模型和其他成本降低機會相關的重要舉措牽頭。

We expect our progress to -- on this front, to contribute to an increase in currency-neutral operating income margin of at least 100 basis points in 2019.

我們預計我們在這方面的進展將有助於在 2019 年將貨幣中性營業收入利潤率提高至少 100 個基點。

We anticipate a full year effective tax rate of approximately 23%, consistent with last year, and a relatively stable net interest expense compared to 2018.

我們預計全年有效稅率約為 23%，與去年持平，淨利息支出與 2018 年相比相對穩定。

We are targeting 2019 operating cash flow of at least $10 billion, subject to year-end working capital requirements.

我們的目標是 2019 年的運營現金流至少達到 100 億美元，但要滿足年終營運資金的要求。

We project total capital expenditures this year of approximately $1.1 billion, reflecting further investment behind RRPs, in particular, to support our platform for e-vapor manufacturing capacity.

我們預計今年的總資本支出約為 11 億美元，反映出 RRP 背後的進一步投資，特別是支持我們的電子蒸汽製造能力平台。

I will close our 2019 outlook with some comments on the first quarter.

我將結束我們 2019 年的展望，並對第一季度發表一些評論。

While we don't provide quarterly guidance, I believe that it is appropriate to share some additional visibility related to phasing.

雖然我們不提供季度指導，但我認為分享一些與分階段相關的額外可見性是合適的。

We currently anticipate reported diluted EPS of approximately $1 in the quarter or flat compared to last year, subject to the timing of commercial spending associated with some of our IQOS-related projects.

我們目前預計本季度報告的攤薄後每股收益約為 1 美元，或與去年持平，這取決於與我們一些 IQOS 相關項目相關的商業支出的時間安排。

Excluding approximately $0.09 of adverse currency at prevailing exchange rate, this represents a growth rate of 9% compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $1 in the first quarter of 2018, which itself included a positive contribution from currency of $0.03 or approximately 3 percentage points.

按現行匯率計算，不計約 0.09 美元的不利貨幣，與 2018 年第一季度 1 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益相比，增長率為 9%，後者本身包括 0.03 美元或約 3 個百分點的貨幣貢獻。

I will conclude with a few key takeaways from our 2018 performance.

最後，我將總結我們 2018 年業績的一些要點。

As evidenced by our total share growth internationally and our stable share of the cigarette category, we are successfully managing our transition from cigarettes to reduced-risk products.

正如我們在國際上的總份額增長和我們在捲菸類別中的穩定份額所證明的那樣，我們正在成功地管理從捲菸到低風險產品的過渡。

Our combustible tobacco portfolio remains the foundation of our business and is delivering robust performance and pricing power.

我們的可燃煙草產品組合仍然是我們業務的基礎，並提供強勁的性能和定價能力。

Furthermore, the international cigarette industry volume decline was broadly in line with historical trends.

此外，國際捲菸行業銷量下降與歷史趨勢基本一致。

IQOS continues to grow globally, nearly doubling heated tobacco unit in-market sales volume in 2018 and increasing the number of markets, making important contributions to its success.

IQOS 在全球範圍內持續增長，2018 年加熱煙草單位的市場銷量幾乎翻了一番，並增加了市場數量，為其成功做出了重要貢獻。

We estimate that as of year-end, over 6.6 million adult smokers around the world had already stopped smoking and switched to IQOS.

我們估計，截至年底，全球已有超過 660 萬成年吸煙者戒菸並改用 IQOS。

We estimate a retail value of approximately $18 billion for the combined heated tobacco and e-vapor category outside China and the U.S., with heated tobacco representing approximately 70% of the total.

我們估計在中國和美國以外的加熱煙草和電子蒸汽產品類別的零售價值約為 180 億美元，其中加熱煙草約佔總額的 70%。

IQOS alone, accounts for an estimated 57% of the combined retail value, with unit margins and switching rates superior to any other nicotine product.

僅 IQOS 一項就佔總零售價值的 57%，其單位利潤率和轉換率優於任何其他尼古丁產品。

We expect to increase our share of the e-vapor market through further development and deployment of our product portfolio.

我們希望通過進一步開發和部署我們的產品組合來增加我們在電子蒸汽市場的份額。

Turning to 2019.

轉眼2019年。

We anticipate better underlying business fundamentals, driving currency-neutral net revenue growth of at least 5%.

我們預計潛在的業務基本面會更好，推動貨幣中性淨收入增長至少 5%。

Our 2019 EPS forecast reflects a growth rate of at least 8%, excluding currency, compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $5.10 in 2018.

我們的 2019 年每股收益預測反映了至少 8% 的增長率，不包括貨幣，而 2018 年調整後的攤薄每股收益為 5.10 美元。

Finally, we remain confident in our strategy for a smoke-free future and are convinced that our RRP portfolio continues to provide us with the single largest opportunity to accelerate our business growth and generously reward our shareholders over time.

最後，我們對我們的無菸未來戰略充滿信心，並相信我們的 RRP 組合將繼續為我們提供最大的單一機會，以加速我們的業務增長並隨著時間的推移慷慨回報我們的股東。

Thank you for listening.

謝謝你的聆聽。

Martin and I are now happy to answer your questions.

馬丁和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

I actually first wanted to ask you about Altria's decision to take a stake in JUUL.

實際上，我首先想問你關於奧馳亞決定入股 JUUL 的事情。

I'd really love to hear your thoughts on this and if you think this was a good decision for them.

我真的很想听聽您對此的看法，以及您是否認為這對他們來說是一個好的決定。

And also, given the rapid growth of e-cigs in several markets internationally, would you guys consider some type of distribution agreement with JUUL?

而且，鑑於電子煙在國際多個市場的快速增長，你們會考慮與 JUUL 達成某種類型的分銷協議嗎？

I think you will answer on you believe your technology is superior, but couldn't there be a case for you to do both, especially, you're still not at a point really to fully roll out your technology?

我想你會回答你相信你的技術是優越的，但你不能同時做這兩件事，尤其是，你還沒有真正全面推廣你的技術？

Well, really, I will start by reminding everyone that -- because there is a lot of discussion amongst investors and in the media, in general, what is the potential of x product, y product, JUUL, IQOS and so on, and we have to understand that this is not a binary or a zero-sum game or winner takes all kind of situation.

好吧，真的，我首先要提醒大家——因為投資者和媒體之間有很多討論，一般來說，x 產品、y 產品、JUUL、IQOS 等的潛力是什麼，我們必須明白這不是二進製或零和遊戲或贏家通吃的情況。

I think you can say there are some form of parallelism with intersections in the trajectory of consumers between e-vapor products, [lighter-pure] nicotine products and heated tobacco products.

我想你可以說，在電子蒸汽產品、[淡味純] 尼古丁產品和加熱煙草產品之間，消費者的軌跡存在某種形式的交叉點。

We know that heated tobacco products have the highest conversion ability, but there are people that, in markets where IQOS doesn't exist, that have already switched fully to e-vapor products.

我們知道加熱的煙草產品具有最高的轉化能力，但有些人在沒有 IQOS 的市場上已經完全轉向電子蒸汽產品。

And there are people that use both.

還有人同時使用兩者。

So we are going to see very different behaviors that are sometimes complementary and nonexclusive.

因此，我們將看到非常不同的行為，這些行為有時是互補的和非排他性的。

We will see -- we know that there is dual usage of e-vapor and cigarettes.

我們會看到——我們知道電子蒸汽和香煙有雙重用途。

We have people that may continue using the same amount of cigarettes and have a few additional e-vapor products.

我們有些人可能會繼續使用相同數量的香煙，並擁有一些額外的電子蒸汽產品。

And you will also see heated tobacco products, like IQOS and e-vapor, being used simultaneously.

你還會看到同時使用加熱煙草產品，如 IQOS 和電子蒸汽。

That's why we developed a portfolio of products that can cater to all consumers and that -- we'll see all kinds of combinations going forward.

這就是為什麼我們開發了一個可以滿足所有消費者需求的產品組合的原因——我們將在未來看到各種組合。

So we are ready to compete with everybody, and I think competition in the category and the ability to switch people out of cigarettes is very important.

所以我們準備好與每個人競爭，我認為這個類別的競爭和讓人們擺脫香煙的能力非常重要。

I mentioned in my remarks, Japan, where we see that not subsidiary-performing products, in terms of sensory experience, dilute the category, and we welcome products that can.

我在我的發言中提到，在日本，我們看到在感官體驗方面沒有附屬性能的產品會稀釋類別，我們歡迎可以的產品。

So I think, for us, as a matter of principle, there is room for all products, and there will be no one exclusive user or one competitor in any category.

所以我覺得，對我們來說，原則上是所有的產品都有空間，任何一個品類都不會出現一個獨占用戶，一個競爭者。

So I think we know sufficiently and we have demonstrated over the past year that we understand all the categories, and we understand all the consumers, okay?

所以我認為我們足夠了解，並且在過去一年中我們已經證明我們了解所有類別，我們了解所有消費者，好嗎？

So in our situation, to a certain degree, we're not in the same market as Altria and I will not comment on the Altria decisions because they have to look at their own portfolio and situation.

所以在我們的情況下，在某種程度上，我們與奧馳亞不在同一個市場，我不會評論奧馳亞的決定，因為他們必須考慮自己的投資組合和情況。

And they took the decision to make the investment, which I respect.

他們做出了投資的決定，我尊重這一點。

I think nothing has changed in the relationship we have with Altria in preparation of the IQOS launch in the U.S., and I think Altria confirmed that they are fully ready, once we get FDA approval to go for IQOS.

我認為我們與奧馳亞在準備在美國推出 IQOS 時的關係沒有任何改變，而且我認為一旦我們獲得 FDA 批准使用 IQOS，奧馳亞確認他們已經完全準備好了。

And we are looking forward to this moment.

我們期待著這一刻。

As far as JUUL is concerned, clearly, JUUL benefits from a certain degree of awareness due to the U.S. market in certain English-speaking countries.

就JUUL而言，顯然，JUUL得益於美國市場在某些英語國家的一定知名度。

So we'll see some initial success, for sure, because there is awareness, as we had with IQOS, for example, in some markets when we entered, like Korea.

所以我們肯定會看到一些初步的成功，因為有意識，就像我們對 IQOS 一樣，例如，在我們進入韓國等一些市場時。

But then, we have to see the sustainability of the product proposition, both from a marketing and product performance point of view.

但是，我們必須從營銷和產品性能的角度來看產品主張的可持續性。

But again, there is no one winner takes it all, okay?

但同樣，沒有贏家通吃，好嗎？

So I think we have to go over this initial excitement and discussion, who is going to be the winning technology, who is going to be the winning brand.

所以我認為我們必須回顧一下最初的興奮和討論，誰將成為獲勝的技術，誰將成為獲勝的品牌。

I think there will be many brands.

我認為會有很多品牌。

I believe IQOS is already a very well-established brand, as I said in my remarks.

正如我在發言中所說，我相信IQOS已經是一個非常成熟的品牌。

If we combine the e-vapor and heated tobacco category, and the e-vapor category internationally is essentially in the EU and has been fairly stable, IQOS has 57% of the entire retail value of both categories combined, and we're not even in the e-vapor category.

如果我們把電子煙和加熱煙草品類結合起來，國際上電子煙品類主要在歐盟，並且一直相當穩定，IQOS 佔這兩個品類總零售額的 57%，我們甚至都沒有在電子蒸汽類別中。

We plan to enter significantly the e-vapor category as of the end of this year, including with the devices we showed in Investors Day that are smaller devices to cater for different consumers' needs.

我們計劃在今年年底前大量進入電子蒸汽產品類別，包括我們在投資者日展示的更小的設備，以滿足不同消費者的需求。

And that's why we also said we increased a little bit the CapEx so that we have capacity to develop this -- to commercialize this product.

這就是為什麼我們還說我們增加了一點資本支出，以便我們有能力開發這個——將這個產品商業化。

And I think we are ready for competing.

我認為我們已經準備好參加比賽了。

The only thing I would say is JUUL, I hope they learned their lessons regarding certain undesirable target audiences that we are very careful and extremely wise about.

我唯一要說的是 JUUL，我希望他們能從我們非常謹慎和非常明智的某些不受歡迎的目標受眾身上吸取教訓。

And I hope that the Altria participation will increase their attention to unintended audiences.

我希望奧馳亞的參與能增加他們對非預期受眾的關注。

That's all I have to say.

這就是我要說的。

No, that was helpful.

不，那很有幫助。

And then if I may, I wanted to ask a little bit more about the new innovation you just put into the market in November that you discussed a bit.

然後，如果可以的話，我想多問一點關於你剛剛在 11 月投放市場的新創新，你討論過。

But if you could drill down a little bit further for us and talk about, if it did, in fact, meet your expectations or possibly exceed your expectations so far.

但是，如果你能為我們進一步深入討論一下，如果它確實達到了你的期望，或者到目前為止可能超出了你的期望。

And then what will the rest of the rollout schedule look like?

那麼其餘的推出時間表會是什麼樣子？

For instance, I think you're still planning to do a phased rollout, but will the bulk of the new devices be in the market by the end of Q1, or is it by the end of Q2?

例如，我認為你們仍計劃分階段推出，但大部分新設備會在第一季度末或第二季度末上市嗎？

And then last point on this, I'd like to hear from you just a little bit more about the cannibalization you might have been seeing.

關於這一點的最後一點，我想听聽您更多地了解您可能已經看到的蠶食現象。

You mentioned, I think, it's been quite incremental, but just kind of wanted a better understanding of that.

你提到過，我認為，這是相當漸進的，但只是想更好地理解它。

Okay.

好的。

We're talking about 2 different things, if I understand.

如果我明白的話，我們在談論兩件不同的事情。

The first is the rollout of what we call IQOS 3 devices and IQOS MULTI; and the other, what happens with the second lineup of consumables we have in Japan.

首先是我們稱之為 IQOS 3 設備和 IQOS MULTI 的推出；另一方面，我們在日本擁有的第二批消耗品會發生什麼情況。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So we were a bit limited initially on IQOS 3 and IQOS 3 MULTI in many markets, so we made the product available only through our own retail and e-commerce.

所以我們最初在許多市場上對 IQOS 3 和 IQOS 3 MULTI 有點限制，所以我們只通過我們自己的零售和電子商務提供該產品。

And we also made the product -- so we had limitations, and I have to say we're very pleased with the initial reaction.

我們也製作了產品——所以我們有局限性，我不得不說我們對最初的反應非常滿意。

People understand and appreciate also the IQOS MULTI because that was a clear consumer need.

人們也了解並欣賞 IQOS MULTI，因為這是明確的消費者需求。

We have combined sales of both, and that's very good.

我們結合了兩者的銷售，這非常好。

And we also continue selling IQOS 2.4.

我們還繼續銷售 IQOS 2.4。

So although it's a limited sample, I would say, because we were not national in every retail channel with IQOS 3, the first indications is things are happening the way we had foreseen are happening.

因此，儘管這是一個有限的樣本，但我想說，因為我們並不是在每個零售渠道都使用 IQOS 3，所以第一個跡像是事情正在按照我們預見的方式發生。

And the comments from the consumers are good.

而且消費者的評價也不錯。

And if you look at more -- to use Net Promoter Scores, we have improved also significantly the Net Promoter Score of IQOS in Japan, in particular, and in other places.

如果你看得更多——使用淨推薦值，我們也顯著提高了 IQOS 在日本的淨推薦值，特別是在其他地方。

And at the same time, we see new user acquisition, even with this limited availability of IQOS 3, increasing.

與此同時，即使 IQOS 3 的可用性有限，我們也看到新用戶的獲取在增加。

So it's early indications, but they are good indications, and we see the same in other markets.

所以這是早期跡象，但它們是很好的跡象，我們在其他市場也看到了同樣的情況。

We'll give a bit more color and granularity in CAGNY because we will have a bit more weeks behind us with full availability.

我們將在 CAGNY 中提供更多顏色和粒度，因為我們將在幾週後完全可用。

But so far, so good.

但到目前為止，還不錯。

Now regarding HEETS, our reading is they help -- from the limited markets again we're in, they help increase consumer acquisition because we cater to people that are a bit more price-sensitive.

現在關於 HEETS，我們的解讀是它們有幫助——從我們所處的有限市場來看，它們有助於增加消費者的獲取，因為我們迎合了對價格更敏感的人。

We have incremental share, if you combine both Marlboro heated units and HEETS, in the places we were, and that's why we decided to extend.

如果您將 Marlboro 加熱裝置和 HEETS 結合起來，我們將獲得增量份額，這就是我們決定擴展的原因。

There is obviously, a certain cannibalization because we are, essentially, the only product.

顯然，存在某種蠶食現象，因為我們本質上是唯一的產品。

But overall, we have share increase, and that's the encouraging part.

但總的來說，我們的份額有所增加，這是令人鼓舞的部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Judy Hong from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

So André, I guess I wanted to ask a little bit more about the volume outlook for 2019.

所以安德烈，我想我想多問一點關於 2019 年的銷量前景。

I know you're not giving specific volume target for IQOS, but clearly, you're giving the consolidated volume guidance of down 1.5% to 2%.

我知道你沒有給出 IQOS 的具體銷量目標，但很明顯，你給出了下降 1.5% 到 2% 的綜合銷量指導。

So I think we can kind of back into what you're, at least high level, expecting for IQOS if we assume combustibles down somewhere around 3%, 3.5%.

所以我認為，如果我們假設可燃物下降 3%、3.5% 左右，我們可以回到你對 IQOS 的預期，至少是高水平。

So maybe a little bit more color just in terms of, at a high level, how do you see volume kind of playing out for IQOS and combustibles?

因此，就高層次而言，可能會增加一些顏色，您如何看待 IQOS 和可燃物的銷量？

And then more specifically, in Japan, just based on JT's comment earlier today that they're expecting only 3% category growth for the heat-not-burn this year, I'm just wondering if you think that the growth rate could be more robust or is that kind of a more prudent assumption at this point of the year.

然後更具體地說，在日本，根據 JT 今天早些時候的評論，他們預計今年加熱不燃燒的類別增長率僅為 3%，我只是想知道你是否認為增長率可能更高在今年的這個時候，穩健或者是一種更謹慎的假設。

Look, we see clearly growth in all the markets where IQOS is present, okay, volume growth.

看，我們看到 IQOS 存在的所有市場都有明顯的增長，好吧，銷量增長。

I mean, I would not read too much in the forecast of global combined cigarettes and everything because, frankly speaking, we were positively surprised last year by the combustible category as well with more positive volumes than we initially anticipate.

我的意思是，我不會過多地閱讀全球混合捲菸和所有東西的預測，因為坦率地說，去年我們對可燃類別感到非常驚訝，而且數量比我們最初預期的要多。

All I would say is we are in line with the projection I gave for 3 years down the line, 90 billion to 100 billion, and I would not venture in more precise volumes this year because they are baked in the, at least, 5% revenue growth, okay?

我要說的是，我們與我給出的未來 3 年的預測一致，即 900 億到 1000 億，今年我不會冒險給出更精確的數量，因為它們至少有 5%收入增長，好嗎？

In Japan, in particular, if you have noticed from the slides, I don't know if you had the opportunity to see them, we see growth in the share of IQOS, actually in Japan, in January, the share of IQOS was [16.5%].

特別是在日本，如果你從幻燈片中註意到，我不知道你是否有機會看到它們，我們看到 IQOS 的份額在增長，實際上在日本，1 月份，IQOS 的份額是 [ 16.5%]。

So that's very nice compared to 15.4% we had in the previous quarters.

因此，與我們前幾個季度的 15.4% 相比，這是非常好的。

I would not -- it's in 1 month, and I would not read anything into this, but it's a positive development.

我不會 - 它是在 1 個月內，我不會對此進行任何解讀，但這是一個積極的發展。

And EU and Russia, as you have seen, we have very positive trends.

正如您所見，歐盟和俄羅斯的趨勢非常積極。

So we are very optimistic, but we'll keep you abreast on what's happening as the year unfolds.

因此，我們非常樂觀，但隨著這一年的展開，我們會讓您了解正在發生的事情。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just a little bit more specific to Russia because obviously, that's one market where, clearly, you've seen improvement sequentially, both on the volume side and market share side.

然後可能只是針對俄羅斯更具體一點，因為很明顯，這是一個市場，很明顯，你在數量方面和市場份額方面都看到了連續的改善。

I guess my questions are, number one, is that starting to have a bigger impact on the broader combustible category volume, certainly in markets like Moscow, where you've got a pretty sizable share with IQOS?

我想我的問題是，第一，這是否開始對更廣泛的可燃物類別產生更大的影響，當然是在像莫斯科這樣的市場，在那裡 IQOS 佔有相當大的份額？

And then just broadly speaking, as you kind of roll out IQOS into additional cities in Russia, kind of the cadence of volume trajectory that you're expecting as you implement that strategy going forward.

然後從廣義上講，當您將 IQOS 推廣到俄羅斯的其他城市時，您在實施該戰略時所期望的體積軌跡節奏。

Look, I mean, as we expand in different cities, we'll see additional volume, obviously.

看，我的意思是，隨著我們在不同城市的擴張，我們顯然會看到額外的數量。

We also need to understand, we are in the richest and more affluent cities, and we see continued growth.

我們還需要明白，我們身處最富裕、更富裕的城市，我們看到了持續增長。

As we expand over time, maybe the growth trajectories will be a bit slower because we are reaching lower-income consumers.

隨著時間的推移，隨著我們的擴張，增長軌跡可能會慢一些，因為我們正在接觸低收入消費者。

But overall, I think Russia piloted a number of practices, including using digital tools, that show that we can scale up efficiently without necessarily expanding manpower everywhere.

但總的來說，我認為俄羅斯試行了一些實踐，包括使用數字工具，這些實踐表明我們可以有效地擴大規模，而不必在任何地方都增加人力。

And that's something, now that we have the digital platforms, as I said, and infrastructure available and we're rolling it out as we speak, should be an accelerator this year and most importantly, in the years to come, with also much more cost efficiency underlying the growth trajectories of IQOS.

就是這樣，正如我所說，現在我們有了數字平台和可用的基礎設施，我們正在推出它，今年應該是一個加速器，最重要的是，在未來幾年，還有更多IQOS 增長軌蹟的成本效率。

So I see -- I mean, we're very pleased with what's happening in Russia.

所以我明白了——我的意思是，我們對俄羅斯正在發生的事情感到非常高興。

I think it's a very clear demonstration that IQOS has potential everywhere, even in markets that have less purchasing power.

我認為這非常清楚地表明 IQOS 在任何地方都有潛力，即使在購買力較低的市場也是如此。

And the testing of the tools show that we can scale with much more efficiency than before.

對工具的測試表明，我們可以比以前更有效地進行擴展。

So it's all very positive signs.

所以這都是非常積極的跡象。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just my last question.

然後是我的最後一個問題。

Just in terms of your profit guidance or the operating margin being up about 100 basis points, it seems like that's mostly around the half of kind of the incremental spending that you've put into place in 2018 kind of not growing again.

就您的利潤指引或營業利潤率上升約 100 個基點而言，這似乎主要是您在 2018 年投入的增量支出的一半左右，這種支出不會再次增長。

So I'm just curious if that's sort of the correct interpretation.

所以我很好奇這是否是正確的解釋。

And I know that IQOS has been pretty volatile, just in terms of thinking about the profit performance.

而且我知道 IQOS 的波動很大，只是考慮到利潤表現。

So when you kind of look at the 100 basis points operating margin target, how comfortable are you that you should be in position to deliver on that target, even if volume slows or other things happen from an IQOS kind of volatility standpoint?

因此，當您考慮 100 個基點的營業利潤率目標時，即使從 IQOS 的波動性角度來看，即使銷量放緩或發生其他事情，您對實現該目標的能力有多滿意？

Look, we are fairly confident we can deliver on this.

看，我們相當有信心我們可以實現這一目標。

It's a combination of, as we said, lower spending, much lower spending than last year, but still incremental spending.

正如我們所說，這是支出減少，支出比去年低得多，但仍是增量支出的結合。

And the second one is an increased volume contribution of IQOS to the overall earnings.

第二個是 IQOS 對整體收益的貢獻增加。

And as we know, IQOS has better margins.

正如我們所知，IQOS 的利潤率更高。

So that's the way I would read it.

這就是我閱讀它的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Adam Spielman。

So first of all, can I just follow up on -- can you hear me?

所以首先，我可以跟進 - 你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So can I just follow up on the answer you gave to Judy, just to make sure I got it absolutely right?

那麼我可以跟進你給朱蒂的答案，只是為了確保我完全正確嗎？

With respect to the 100 basis points, it sounds like the majority of that is coming from the efficiencies of rolling out IQOS that you always said you were going to get.

關於 100 個基點，聽起來大部分來自推出 IQOS 的效率，你總是說你會得到。

And you were talking about a rise at the beginning of last year and less of it's coming from the new -- relatively new news of $1 billion ZBB savings.

你在談論去年年初的增長，而這較少來自新的 - 相對較新的 10 億美元 ZBB 儲蓄的消息。

Is that the correct way of understanding that last answer?

這是理解最後一個答案的正確方法嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

We started the ZBB project.

我們啟動了 ZBB 項目。

But as you can understand, it's not going to deliver big amounts of money in the first year because we have to go through the whole process and do it properly, okay?

但正如你所理解的，它不會在第一年交付大量資金，因為我們必須經歷整個過程並正確地做，好嗎？

So I see this participating as of the next year.

所以我認為明年會參與。

And we never said, just to be clear, that the $1 billion we are targeting is all money that you're going to see on the bottom line, that you should see a portion of that to the bottom line.

我們從來沒有說過，只是為了清楚起見，我們的目標是 10 億美元，這是您將在底線上看到的所有資金，您應該在底線上看到其中的一部分。

The other helps the incremental investment, so the deltas are not as big as they used to be in the previous year.

另一個有助於增量投資，因此三角洲不像前一年那麼大。

Okay.

好的。

So the real question or the more important question is around IQOS.

所以真正的問題或更重要的問題是圍繞著 IQOS。

And I was surprised, frankly, how strong it was in this quarter relative to the third quarter.

坦率地說，我很驚訝本季度相對於第三季度的強勁表現。

And I was just wondering if there were any shipping effects we should be calling out.

我只是想知道我們是否應該指出任何運輸效果。

Clearly, Japan was harmed by shipping effects.

顯然，日本受到航運效應的損害。

You called out a positive one in Korea.

你在韓國喊出了積極的一面。

But for example, in Italy and in Russia, were there any shipping effects that somehow artificially boosted your IQOS volumes?

但是，例如，在意大利和俄羅斯，是否有任何運輸效應以某種方式人為地增加了你的 IQOS 銷量？

Okay.

好的。

There was some shipment in Russia ahead of -- we're expanding in different cities.

之前在俄羅斯有一些貨物——我們正在不同的城市擴張。

So there is -- it's preparation of the expansion, okay?

所以有——這是擴展的準備，好嗎？

I don't remember exactly how much that was, around [1 billion, 0.8 billion], something like that, if I can recall correctly, okay?

我不記得具體是多少，大約 [10 億，8 億]，如果我沒記錯的話，大概是這樣，好嗎？

It was planned.

這是計劃好的。

It was planned from the beginning, so it's not something -- but there is nothing else in there.

它是從一開始就計劃好的，所以它不是什麼東西——但裡面沒有別的東西。

The rest is direct in-market sales, okay?

剩下的就是直接在市場上銷售，好嗎？

And so, for example, if you just focus just on Italy, there was a huge jump in market share in Italy in 4Q, even relative to 3Q.

因此，舉例來說，如果你只關注意大利，那麼第四季度意大利的市場份額就會大幅躍升，甚至相對於第三季度也是如此。

And I was just wondering if you can explain what caused that and how we should think about it going forwards as well.

我只是想知道您是否可以解釋造成這種情況的原因以及我們應該如何考慮它的發展。

That's a very good question.

這是一個很好的問題。

First of all, I think we see momentum in Italy.

首先，我認為我們看到了意大利的勢頭。

It took a lot of time, if you remember, Adam, to get Italy moving given the restrictions.

考慮到限制，亞當，如果你還記得的話，花了很多時間讓意大利行動起來。

And I think it's just the fact that there are more consumers of IQOS in Italy, so start having word-of-mouth, okay?

而且我認為這只是意大利有更多 IQOS 消費者的事實，所以開始有口碑，好嗎？

Again, I wouldn't read one quarter as the proxy for the acceleration, but the momentum is there.

同樣，我不會將四分之一解讀為加速的代表，但勢頭是存在的。

So I think, in Italy, finally, we start seeing this better than slow linearity of growth, and that's exactly what's happening.

所以我認為，在意大利，我們終於開始看到這種比緩慢的線性增長更好的情況，而這正是正在發生的事情。

And this is ahead of us deploying further of these efficiency tools I described.

這是在我們進一步部署我描述的這些效率工具之前。

But this is what you read in Italy, is share of the market.

但這是你在意大利讀到的，是市場份額。

It's nothing to do with inventories and shipments and all these things.

這與庫存和發貨以及所有這些事情無關。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then one final question from me.

然後是我的最後一個問題。

And this is about the guidance.

這是關於指導的。

Am I correct to understand, you're giving guidance in sort of 2 different sorts of ways.

我的理解是否正確，您以兩種不同的方式提供指導。

Firstly, you're giving floor guidance.

首先，您要提供會場指導。

So it's a minimum of 5% sales growth.

所以它至少有 5% 的銷售增長。

It's a minimum of 8% constant currency EPS.

最低為 8% 的固定貨幣 EPS。

But then when you're talking about things like the volume, the combined volume figures, that's more of an expectation.

但是當你談論諸如數量之類的東西時，合併後的數量數字，這更像是一種期望。

It's not a floor.

這不是地板。

And is that correct that it's more in the sense in the style you used to give guidance, of this is really what you expect to happen, and it might be a little bit worse, it might be a little bit better.

從您過去提供指導的風格來看，這是否正確，這確實是您期望發生的事情，可能會更糟，也可能會更好。

But the EPS isn't -- is really an absolute floor, in terms of constant currency.

但 EPS 不是——就不變貨幣而言，它確實是一個絕對底線。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, look, volume for the year is a bit difficult to estimate.

我的意思是，你看，今年的銷量有點難以估計。

So we gave a range of 1.5% to 2%, okay?

所以我們給出了 1.5% 到 2% 的範圍，好嗎？

That's our estimate.

這是我們的估計。

It can come better or slightly worse.

它可以變得更好或更糟。

It depends on the combustible as well.

這也取決於可燃物。

So it's just to give you a flavor of what we see compared to total market, which means we expect share growth in this whole [context], helped obviously by the IQOS units as well.

所以這只是為了讓你了解我們所看到的與整個市場相比的情況，這意味著我們預計整個 [context] 的份額增長，顯然也受到 IQOS 單位的幫助。

But I mean, the key guidance is more than 5% and more than 8%, and that's how it is [still], at least.

但我的意思是，關鍵指導是超過 5% 和超過 8%，至少現在 [still] 是這樣。

Sorry?

對不起？

At least.

至少。

At least, yes.

至少，是的。

Yes.

是的。

At least.

至少。

And can I tempt you to sort of give a sort of upper range, so that you'd be really surprised if, let's say, it was more than 12% on EPS?

我能不能讓你給出一個上限，這樣你就會真的很驚訝，比方說，每股收益超過 12%？

Or how big is that at least?

或者至少有多大？

I mean, how -- because it's -- to me, it's very conservative.

我的意思是，如何 - 因為它 - 對我來說，它非常保守。

Well, as the year goes, I had -- I think depending on what happens, we'll give you better forecast for the remaining year.

好吧，隨著時間的推移，我有——我認為根據發生的情況，我們會給你剩下的一年更好的預測。

I would stay to what I said at this stage, and that's all I can tell you at this stage, Adam.

我會堅持我在這個階段所說的話，這就是我在這個階段能告訴你的全部內容，亞當。

Our next question comes from Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Vivien Azer。

So I wanted to follow up on the IQOS 3 launch in Japan, and I appreciate you want to hold some of this detail back for when we see you in CAGNY in a couple of weeks.

所以我想跟進 IQOS 3 在日本的發布，我很感激你想保留一些細節，等我們幾週後在 CAGNY 見到你。

But can you offer any color around like the underlying consumer demographics of the new users that you indicated you've been acquiring?

但是你能提供任何顏色嗎，比如你表示你已經獲得的新用戶的潛在消費者人口統計數據？

Is it kind of going deeper into that kind of first tranche of consumers, kind of younger, more affluent?

是否更深入地了解第一批消費者，更年輕、更富裕？

Or are you finally starting to see early success in terms of penetrating that 55-plus market that had proven a bit elusive?

還是您終於開始看到在滲透 55 歲以上的市場方面取得了早期成功，該市場已被證明有點難以捉摸？

Well, clearly, we made -- first of all, and foremost, we made these devices available as an option to existing users of IQOS, especially part of our, what we call, the IQOS sphere and exclusive users, okay, because I think that's fair to these people to have first access.

好吧，很明顯，我們做了——首先，也是最重要的，我們讓這些設備作為現有 IQOS 用戶的一種選擇，尤其是我們所謂的 IQOS 領域和獨家用戶的一部分，好吧，因為我認為優先訪問對這些人來說是公平的。

But we also see now sales from people that have never bought IQOS before.

但我們現在也看到以前從未購買過 IQOS 的人的銷售情況。

I don't have the demographics, to be fair with you, with me, but we'll provide them in CAGNY.

老實說，我沒有人口統計數據，但我們會在 CAGNY 中提供。

And I would not like -- I wouldn't provide statistics just with 1 or 2 weeks of rollout, okay?

而且我不喜歡 - 我不會只提供 1 或 2 週推出的統計數據，好嗎？

So what I -- I repeat what I said before.

所以我 - 我重複我之前說過的話。

We also see sales of 2.4 Plus surprisingly because people knew that the new device is coming and still bought 2.4, especially the most price-sensitive consumers, which in my view, shows that the strategy works, and that there will be people that -- they will enter the category also through 2.4 Plus.

我們還看到 2.4 Plus 的銷售令人驚訝，因為人們知道新設備即將推出並且仍然購買 2.4，尤其是對價格最敏感的消費者，在我看來，這表明該策略有效，並且會有人 -他們也將通過 2.4 Plus 進入該類別。

Don't forget, we kept the previous version at a lower price, and we sell the new devices at a higher price.

別忘了，我們以較低的價格保留了以前的版本，並以更高的價格出售新設備。

So we have a dual strategy.

所以我們有雙重戰略。

And I think this, in combination with the HEETS that are at a lower price than the Marlboro consumables are for IQOS, will help us increase the penetration of the more price-sensitive consumers, okay?

我認為，結合價格低於萬寶路 IQOS 消耗品的 HEETS，將幫助我們提高對價格更敏感的消費者的滲透率，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That sounds great and totally reasonable.

這聽起來不錯，而且完全合理。

And look forward to hearing more about that at CAGNY when you have more data.

並期待在您擁有更多數據時在 CAGNY 聽到更多相關信息。

My other question on the RRP category in Japan, just to kind of follow up on Judy's question.

我關於日本 RRP 類別的另一個問題，只是為了跟進 Judy 的問題。

I certainly appreciate your point that with a host of product activity from you and your peers that, that should engage more Japanese consumers.

我當然很欣賞你的觀點，通過你和你的同行的大量產品活動，這應該會吸引更多的日本消費者。

The question, though, that I have is, do you have adequately embedded in your guidance increased spend?

不過，我的問題是，您是否已將增加的支出充分納入您的指導中？

I know you've got a really favorable comp, but given that you've got new products from a host of competitors hitting in 2019, how are you thinking about incremental investment spend in Japan specifically?

我知道你有一個非常有利的競爭，但鑑於你有許多競爭對手在 2019 年推出的新產品，你如何具體考慮在日本的增量投資支出？

Well, we have embedded overall, I would not make specific comments for markets, incremental spending, as I said, it's much less than last year, but it's still a lot of incremental spending.

好吧，我們已經嵌入了整體，我不會對市場、增量支出發表具體評論，正如我所說，它比去年少得多，但它仍然是很多增量支出。

And I think we're adequately equipped to compete in Japan.

而且我認為我們有足夠的能力在日本競爭。

At the same time, as I said, we're also rolling out digital tools and CRM platforms we didn't have before.

與此同時，正如我所說，我們也在推出我們以前沒有的數字工具和 CRM 平台。

And that should help, [post] the retention, which we should not forget, including making existing IQOS users that own multiple devices to go back and exclusively use IQOS, which IQOS 3 helps significantly in achieving this.

這應該有助於[發布]我們不應該忘記的保留，包括讓擁有多個設備的現有 IQOS 用戶返回並專門使用 IQOS，IQOS 3 在實現這一目標方面有很大幫助。

So overall, I think, we are in good shape.

所以總的來說，我認為，我們的狀態很好。

We knew the competition is going to come.

我們知道競爭即將到來。

And I think, at the end of the day, a better product will increase the full conversion over time.

而且我認為，在一天結束時，更好的產品會隨著時間的推移增加完全轉換。

And then over time also, the best product will win.

然後隨著時間的推移，最好的產品也會獲勝。

But as I said many times, we're not going to have 80% of the segment forever in Japan.

但正如我多次說過的那樣，我們不會永遠在日本擁有 80% 的細分市場。

What is important is that the entire category grows over time, and I see no reason why the category will not grow.

重要的是整個類別會隨著時間的推移而增長，而且我看不出該類別不會增長的理由。

Every indication from what we showed is, is with the right product portfolio, the category will continue to grow.

我們展示的每一個跡像都表明，如果產品組合正確，該類別將繼續增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Michael Lavery。

You have several markets in Europe now that have around a mid-single-digit or even higher IQOS share.

你現在在歐洲有幾個市場的 IQOS 份額大約在中個位數甚至更高。

But typically, those countries still don't have national expansions.

但通常情況下，這些國家仍然沒有國家擴張。

Can you give us both a sense of when that might come, and also, in some launch cities or launch areas, what the share might look like?

您能否告訴我們什麼時候可能會出現這種情況，以及在一些發射城市或發射區域，份額可能是什麼樣子？

If you're giving that to us now on a national basis, what does it look like where it's a little bit more concentrated?

如果您現在在全國范圍內將其提供給我們，那麼它看起來更集中一點的地方是什麼樣的？

Well, I mean, if I -- as I said, if you take the European Union, we are roughly at 50% -- 47% of volume-weighted, if you want, [presence].

好吧，我的意思是，如果我——正如我所說，如果你以歐盟為例，我們大約佔成交量加權的 50%——47%，如果你願意的話，[存在]。

So our share in the European Union would be double in the places where we are present, roughly speaking, okay?

因此，粗略地說，在我們所在的地方，我們在歐盟中的份額將增加一倍，好嗎？

So if it's 1.7, I think it would be 3.4, okay?

所以如果是 1.7，我想應該是 3.4，好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I understand that math.

我理解那個數學。

I guess, more specifically, some of the places you've launched first, like Milan, Rome, Prague, Athens, not necessarily first, but where there's been either a longer history and/or a more rapid acceleration and better awareness, what does the share look like in some of those places that are your better performers, that when you give a national share, might be masked a little bit by places that -- in that country you still haven't launched yet or that have just -- that are just getting started?

我想，更具體地說，一些你首先推出的地方，比如米蘭、羅馬、布拉格、雅典，不一定是第一個，但在那裡有更長的歷史和/或更快的加速和更好的意識，什麼是在一些你表現較好的地方，份額看起來像是，當你給出全國份額時，可能會被一些地方掩蓋——在那個國家你還沒有推出，或者剛剛——那才剛剛開始？

Yes, look, I don't have all the numbers.

是的，看，我沒有所有的數字。

If I recall correctly, Athens is well above 10 because I know, it's my home city, okay?

如果我沒記錯的話，雅典遠高於 10，因為我知道，這是我的家鄉，好嗎？

Actually, yes, it is -- the whole region of Attica, including Athens, is 14% now, which is pretty high and growing.

事實上，是的，它是——整個阿提卡地區，包括雅典，現在是 14%，這是相當高的，而且還在增長。

Milano, I don't have it, if somebody can help me here...

Milano，我沒有，如果有人可以在這裡幫助我...

Rome is about double the...

羅馬大約是...的兩倍

Just 1 second.

只需1秒。

Milan actually is an interest experiment because it's where we tried the first ways in the past.

米蘭實際上是一個興趣實驗，因為它是我們過去嘗試第一種方式的地方。

It was very flat.

它非常平坦。

Took us a lot of time to make consumers try the product again.

我們花了很多時間讓消費者再次嘗試產品。

But if I'm not mistaken...

但如果我沒記錯的話……

It will be in Milan or in Roma...

它將在米蘭或羅馬...

Okay.

好的。

Sorry, but in Milan or in Rome, it's 5.3, something like that, okay?

抱歉，但在米蘭或羅馬，它是 5.3 之類的，好嗎？

We'll give you bit more color in CAGNY on all this.

我們會在 CAGNY 中為您提供更多關於這一切的顏色。

But for me, Milano is probably the most important because -- it is the most difficult city, because of the previous presence of IQOS, to regain momentum, and we did.

但對我來說，米蘭可能是最重要的，因為——它是最困難的城市，因為之前 IQOS 的存在，要重新獲得動力，我們做到了。

So that's a very good sign, actually.

所以這實際上是一個非常好的跡象。

Okay.

好的。

No.

不。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on your thoughts on more national expansions in any other European markets.

然後就您對任何其他歐洲市場的更多國家擴張的想法。

Or you've already talked about Russia expanding a little bit more.

或者您已經談到了俄羅斯進一步擴張。

Is that one that you would expect to go national as well?

您是否也希望將其推向全國？

Look, we go gradually in most of the markets.

看，我們在大多數市場上都是循序漸進的。

As I said previously, our objective, I mean, we are at 43, call it, markets today, the priority is to expand nationally, to see the full potential in these markets now that we can scale up efficiently.

正如我之前所說，我們的目標，我的意思是，我們今天有 43 個市場，首要任務是在全國范圍內擴張，看到這些市場的全部潛力，因為我們可以有效地擴大規模。

And during the year, we may open new markets if there's strategic opportunity or the regulation changes.

在這一年中，如果有戰略機遇或法規發生變化，我們可能會開闢新市場。

But the focus is to expand nationally in the markets where we are, and that's what we are following, okay?

但重點是在我們所在的市場向全國擴張，這就是我們所追求的，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And then just a little bit more of a housekeeping question.

然後還有一點家政問題。

You talked about the 100 basis points margin expansion, ex currency, do you have any sense of what the transactional currency impact might be that we should have in mind or to factor in there?

你談到了 100 個基點的保證金擴張，除貨幣外，你是否知道我們應該考慮或考慮的交易貨幣影響是什麼？

I do not -- I don't have the calculation, but traditionally, our transactional currency is 10% of the total currency impact.

我沒有——我沒有計算，但傳統上，我們的交易貨幣佔總貨幣影響的 10%。

If I can use this as a rule of thumb, I don't think it's more than that.

如果我可以將此作為經驗法則，我認為僅此而已。

Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

You made comments at the beginning of the call that the share price performance, which has partly been impacted by industry concerns, that are more U.S.-specific, I wanted to get a sense if this influences your view on timing for reinstating share buybacks.

你在電話會議開始時發表評論稱，股價表現部分受到行業擔憂的影響，更具有美國特色，我想了解一下這是否會影響你對恢復股票回購時機的看法。

Look, we look at the share buyback regularly.

看，我們會定期查看股票回購。

And I think for the moment, the conclusion is that we follow the plan.

我認為目前的結論是我們遵循計劃。

I think Martin explained that if we look at the 3-year period, including this year, it's in the outer years but we will be in a position without losing our rating to restore share buybacks.

我想 Martin 解釋說，如果我們看一下 3 年期間，包括今年，它是在外部年份，但我們將能夠在不失去評級的情況下恢復股票回購。

I understand it may be tempting for -- to do this, but I think we have to stick to the plan because I believe that some of the impact on the shares, as I explained, is due to our lower-than-expected initially performance, but the reality is also there is a lot of uncertainty that I've been trying to clarify.

我知道這樣做可能很誘人，但我認為我們必須堅持這個計劃，因為我相信正如我解釋的那樣，對股票的一些影響是由於我們最初的表現低於預期，但現實中也存在很多我一直試圖澄清的不確定性。

And we'll clarify even better e-cigarette categories, e-vapor worldwide and heat-not-burn and all the interactions in CAGNY.

我們將澄清更好的電子菸類別、全球電子煙和加熱不燃燒以及 CAGNY 中的所有交互。

I think it's a necessary anxiety there.

我認為這是一種必要的焦慮。

And in this context, I think, for us, our focus is to deliver the results quarter after quarter and get the growth of the products.

在這種情況下，我認為，對我們來說，我們的重點是逐季交付業績並實現產品增長。

And I'm sure investors will appreciate these and have the share going up rather than doing very opportunistic share repurchases rather than based on a clear plan, when the time is right for that.

而且我相信投資者會欣賞這些並讓股票上漲而不是進行非常機會主義的股票回購而不是基於明確的計劃，當時機成熟時。

Okay.

好的。

And you mentioned that combustible pricing growth should moderate towards more in line with the historical pricing growth in 2019.

你提到可燃物價格增長應該放緩，與 2019 年的歷史價格增長更加一致。

What do you see as the puts and takes contributing to your outlook?

您認為看跌期權和看跌期權對您的前景有何貢獻？

And are you still anticipating a relatively benign excise tax environment this year?

您是否仍然期待今年相對良性的消費稅環境？

Well, I think the excise tax -- if you look globally, the excise tax environment is fairly stable.

嗯，我認為消費稅——如果你放眼全球，消費稅環境相當穩定。

I mean, yes, there are occasionally the 1 or 2 markets that have more than regular increases.

我的意思是，是的，偶爾會有 1 或 2 個市場的漲幅超過正常水平。

On the other side, we have the positive surprise of Indonesia, where the government decided not to increase excise taxes, okay, so which would help volume.

另一方面，我們有印度尼西亞的積極驚喜，政府決定不增加消費稅，好吧，這將有助於銷量。

What I was trying to say in my remarks is we have to see 2018 as a very exceptional year because of Russia comparisons.

我在發言中想說的是，由於與俄羅斯的比較，我們必須將 2018 年視為非常特殊的一年。

That's a major contributor to pricing, obviously, given its volume size.

顯然，鑑於其體積大小，這是定價的主要貢獻者。

Russia 2018 comparisons were compared to 0 almost pricing in 2017.

俄羅斯 2018 年的比較與 2017 年幾乎為 0 的定價進行了比較。

Also, in the Philippines, because the illicit trade went away, we had the opportunity to get very significant pricing in '18.

此外，在菲律賓，由於非法貿易消失，我們有機會在 18 年獲得非常可觀的定價。

Obviously, that would be more regular now that we rebased our pricing in the Philippines.

顯然，既然我們重新調整了在菲律賓的定價，那將更加規律。

So the overall environment, I think, of pricing has not changed.

所以我認為定價的整體環境沒有改變。

It's very robust.

它非常堅固。

It's there.

在那裡。

But all I said is we have to look at '17 -- '18 and '19 as 2. And if you add the 2, we are very much in line with the rest, okay?

但我所說的只是我們必須將 17 年、18 年和 19 年視為 2。如果你加上 2，我們與其他人非常一致，好嗎？

And we have already taken 60-plus percent of the pricing so far.

到目前為止，我們已經獲得了 60% 以上的定價。

There's still a few markets that the price tax situation has not settled, but this is not anything major.

還有一些市場價格稅的情況還沒有解決，但這不是什麼大問題。

I think, overall, pricing is very much in place and intact.

我認為，總的來說，定價非常到位且完好無損。

Okay.

好的。

And just lastly, how is IQOS MESH performing?

最後，IQOS MESH 的表現如何？

And can you provide an update on what progress you've made on your Platform 2 and 3 products, timing?

您能否提供有關您在平台 2 和平台 3 產品上取得的進展的更新時間？

Look, IQOS MESH is only in our own e-commerce and a few stores -- actually, our own stores in London.

你看，IQOS MESH 只在我們自己的電子商務和一些商店——實際上，我們在倫敦的商店。

For us, it was the experimenting again to see whether the flavors we offer are acceptable to consumers, whether the product itself is acceptable and then improve before we go for much more widespread expansion of the product.

對我們來說，這是再次試驗，看看我們提供的口味是否能被消費者接受，產品本身是否可以接受，然後在我們更廣泛地擴展產品之前進行改進。

So it's very difficult to judge what is the potential.

所以很難判斷潛力有多大。

I think we learn what we need to learn.

我認為我們學習了我們需要學習的東西。

Obviously, we're there with the devices you've seen that caters more to the pod and vod, big vape or bigger vape consumers.

顯然，我們提供的設備更適合 pod 和 vod、大型 vape 或更大的 vape 消費者。

In Investor Day, we explained to you that we have also smaller devices that cater to different consumers.

在投資者日，我們向您解釋說，我們也有更小的設備來迎合不同的消費者。

And we are investing in manufacturing capacity for those devices and related cartridges.

我們正在投資這些設備和相關墨盒的製造能力。

Overall, I would say the consumer feedback we receive is very good.

總的來說，我想說我們收到的消費者反饋非常好。

They recognize the product is better, much more robust, batteries, detection of end of liquid and all these things.

他們認識到產品更好、更堅固、電池、液體盡頭檢測以及所有這些東西。

Now we need to integrate them in the smaller devices, and that's what we're doing just now for rollout.

現在我們需要將它們集成到更小的設備中，這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

P3 is a bit -- we're preparing the industrial designs for the product.

P3 有點——我們正在為產品準備工業設計。

The product is stabilized.

產品穩定。

Clearly here, I see the potential more longer term and more situational use of the product, their full conversion, at this stage.

在這裡，我清楚地看到了產品在這個階段的潛在更長期和更多情境使用，以及它們的完全轉換。

So it's not something we roll out immediately, but -- or in very selected places in order to get better understanding.

所以這不是我們立即推出的東西，而是 - 或者在非常選定的地方推出，以便更好地理解。

And in Platform 2, which I think is very promising, as we know, we're working on resolving one problem that in humid climates, we had some problems with the heat source, that there were some falloffs occasionally and that, even if it's very small, is not acceptable.

在平台 2 中，我認為這是非常有前途的，正如我們所知，我們正在努力解決一個問題，即在潮濕的氣候下，我們在熱源方面遇到了一些問題，偶爾會有一些衰減，而且，即使它是很小，是不能接受的。

So we are now working -- I think we have a solution at lab level.

所以我們現在正在努力——我認為我們有實驗室級別的解決方案。

We're working on how to industrialize the solution before rollout.

我們正在研究如何在推出之前將解決方案工業化。

So that's where we stand on all this.

這就是我們對這一切的立場。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Rampton of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅伯特·蘭普頓。

The first question I have is, you mentioned IQOS has better margin.

我的第一個問題是，你提到 IQOS 有更好的利潤率。

Could you talk about which markets you've reached breakeven and in which markets or cities you've achieved profit per stick, which is equal or better to cigarettes?

您能談談您在哪些市場達到了收支平衡，在哪些市場或城市實現了每支香煙的利潤，相當於或優於香煙？

Well, IQOS, in every market we're in has better margins than cigarette.

好吧，IQOS，在我們所處的每個市場中，利潤都比香煙高。

As a matter of fact, there is no one single market where we have lower margins [than] cigarette...

事實上，沒有一個單一市場的利潤率低於香煙……

Including acquisition costs and retention?

包括收購成本和保留？

Okay, we're talking about marginal contribution here, okay?

好的，我們在這裡談論邊際貢獻，好嗎？

As we explained many times, in all major markets, clearly, we are breakeven or above.

正如我們多次解釋的那樣，在所有主要市場中，我們顯然都處於收支平衡或以上。

But it takes, depending on the market and the difficulty of consumer acquisition based on the restrictions, we're between 1 year to 2 years before we get to breakeven point, okay?

但是，根據市場和基於限制的消費者獲取難度，我們需要 1 到 2 年才能達到盈虧平衡點，好嗎？

So that's how I would read it.

這就是我閱讀它的方式。

I think Jacek showed all the details during Investors Day on how to do it at different markets.

我認為 Jacek 在投資者日展示了關於如何在不同市場上做這件事的所有細節。

But that's the rule of thumb, if you wish.

但這是經驗法則，如果您願意的話。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And in terms of the upcoming menthol ban in Europe, how does -- how is IQOS treated under that?

就歐洲即將出台的薄荷醇禁令而言，IQOS 如何處理？

And how are you guys thinking about that?

你們是怎麼想的？

Well, heated tobacco products are excluded from the menthol ban, so we don't see a problem with this.

好吧，加熱煙草產品被排除在薄荷醇禁令之外，所以我們認為這沒有問題。

Of course, we need to maintain it.

當然，我們需要維護它。

And for cigarettes, we are ready, clearly, to offer consumers some alternatives.

對於香煙，我們顯然已經準備好為消費者提供一些替代品。

But what we saw from markets where there is a menthol ban, nothing happened actually.

但我們從有薄荷醇禁令的市場看到的，實際上什麼都沒有發生。

People switched to the same brands very often with different variants of the brand.

人們經常轉而使用同一品牌的不同變體。

So I don't expect any major thing to happen in Europe even with the menthol ban.

因此，即使有薄荷醇禁令，我也不認為歐洲會發生任何重大事件。

Superb.

高超。

And sorry, my final question, in terms of the latest evidence on the IQOS quitting rates and human trials, could we get an update on that?

抱歉，關於 IQOS 戒菸率和人體試驗的最新證據，我的最後一個問題是，我們可以得到更新嗎？

Or is that something you'll give at CAGNY?

或者這是你會在 CAGNY 給予的東西嗎？

I don't -- nothing new in there.

我沒有 - 那裡沒有什麼新鮮事。

I mean...

我是說...

Conversions...

轉換...

Conversion rates.

轉化率。

Conversion rates are the same.

轉化率是一樣的。

And in terms of quitting rates, we don't see any change in the trajectories in Japan, which is the biggest market.

就戒菸率而言，我們看不到日本這個最大市場的軌蹟有任何變化。

If you look at cigarette or IQOS, it's -- the advent of IQOS has not changed the trajectories of people quitting smoking.

如果你看看香煙或 IQOS，它——IQOS 的出現並沒有改變人們戒菸的軌跡。

So I think we are on the right side there in terms of concerns of regulators and public health people.

因此，我認為就監管機構和公共衛生人員的擔憂而言，我們站在正確的一邊。

Our final question will come from the line of Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Your view on superiority of heat-not-burn over e-cigarettes is clear due to the high conversion rates.

由於轉化率高，您對加熱不燃燒優於電子煙的看法很明確。

Do you think regulators prefer e-cigarettes over heat-not-burn on the risk continuum of risk reduction, which is then getting reflected in higher excise taxes on heat-not-burn versus e-cigarettes in different markets?

您是否認為監管機構在降低風險的連續統一體上更喜歡電子煙而不是加熱不燃燒的電子煙，這反映在不同市場上加熱不燃燒的消費稅高於電子煙？

That's a big question.

這是個大問題。

I think, in principle, my belief has always been that this product should be not taxed at all, okay?

我認為，原則上，我的信念一直是這種產品根本不應該徵稅，好嗎？

I'm just trying to be real, because a reduction of 95% or 98% is a humongous reduction, okay, if you talk heat-not-burn versus e-cigarettes versus everything.

我只是想說實話，因為減少 95% 或 98% 是一個巨大的減少，好吧，如果你談論加熱不燃燒與電子香煙與一切。

Now we have to be also realistic, that's why the -- there will be some taxes.

現在我們也必須現實一點，這就是為什麼 - 會有一些稅收。

There are taxes on heated tobacco products.

對加熱煙草產品徵稅。

Some countries tax e-vapor products because at the end of the day, ministries of finance need money.

一些國家/地區對電子蒸汽產品徵稅，因為歸根結底，財政部需要錢。

What is important is that there is a differential and substantial differential between the 2. And that's something we have achieved so far in all the markets where IQOS is present.

重要的是兩者之間存在差異和實質性差異。這是迄今為止我們在所有存在 IQOS 的市場中取得的成就。

And I think that's something that, in the foreseeable future, should be maintained.

我認為在可預見的未來，應該保持這種狀態。

So now if we look at the 2 categories, as I explained, consumers will decide at the end of the day how they will behave.

所以現在如果我們看看這兩個類別，正如我解釋的那樣，消費者將在一天結束時決定他們的行為方式。

The important thing is they move out of cigarettes.

重要的是他們不再抽煙了。

It's -- because the only way to achieve harm reduction in global is to have a very high degree of people switching out of cigarettes and sticking 100% to the product.

這是——因為在全球範圍內實現減少危害的唯一方法是讓大量的人戒掉香煙並 100% 堅持使用該產品。

So far, heated tobacco product has proven to be much more efficient in doing this, but also e-cigarettes played a role, and then there will be people that can use both.

到目前為止，事實證明，加熱煙草產品在這方面的效率要高得多，而且電子煙也發揮了作用，然後就會有人可以同時使用這兩種產品。

And when we have nicotine products, maybe they use all 3 of them, depending on the situation they are.

當我們有尼古丁產品時，也許他們會使用所有 3 種產品，這取決於他們的情況。

So you will have exclusive category users, and you have dual category users as we can see already.

因此，您將擁有專屬類別用戶，並且您將擁有我們已經看到的雙類別用戶。

And that's why there is room for everybody.

這就是為什麼每個人都有空間。

On IQOS, we have various platforms under the IQOS brand.

在 IQOS 上，我們有 IQOS 品牌下的各種平台。

We focused initially on the heated tobacco product because we thought, and we have the proof, that it has the highest efficiency.

我們最初專注於加熱煙草產品，因為我們認為並且有證據表明它具有最高的效率。

And now time has come for us to offer more products to consumers.

現在是我們向消費者提供更多產品的時候了。

And as we explained also in Investors Day, eventually, we will also have a product that has -- uses the same device with different consumables, e-vapor, heated and potentially nicotine, so consumers have absolute choice without the hassle of changing devices all the time.

正如我們在投資者日所解釋的那樣，最終，我們還將擁有一種產品——使用具有不同消耗品、電子蒸汽、加熱和潛在尼古丁的相同設備，因此消費者擁有絕對的選擇，而無需更換所有設備的麻煩時間。

Now that's a bit more future music, but that's where we go.

現在這是更多未來的音樂，但這就是我們要去的地方。

And that's why I say there is room for all kinds of product in the consumer journey over the years and within a day.

這就是為什麼我說在多年和一天之內的消費者旅程中，各種產品都有空間。

And that's how I see the category.

這就是我對類別的看法。

That is very, very helpful.

這非常非常有幫助。

And if I can have a follow-up on this.

如果我可以對此進行跟進。

So the guidance you have given for 2021 on IQOS volumes, does it include IQOS MESH volumes as well?

那麼你給出的 2021 年 IQOS 銷量指南是否也包括 IQOS MESH 銷量？

Or that is just the heat-not-burn product in your view?

或者那隻是你眼中的加熱不燃燒產品？

Well, it will include, eventually, e-vapor products.

好吧，它最終將包括電子蒸汽產品。

But the essence of our projection was based on IQOS, to be frank with you, okay?

但我們投影的本質是基於 IQOS，坦率地說，好嗎？

So maybe e-vapor will become incremental on top of this volume.

因此，也許電子蒸汽會在這個體積的基礎上逐漸增加。

And that was our final question.

這是我們的最後一個問題。

I'll now turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

我現在將把發言權交還給管理層，聽取任何補充或結束髮言。

Well, thank you very much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。

That concludes the call.

通話到此結束。

And if you have any follow-up questions, please contact the Investor Relations group.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係小組。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。

This does conclude today's conference call.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。