菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2018 年第三季度收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris international management and the question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communication.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us.

歡迎，並感謝您加入我們。

Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2018 third quarter results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們 2018 年第三季度業績的詳細信息。

You may access the release on www.pmi.com or the PMI Investor Relations app.

您可以在 www.pmi.com 或 PMI Investor Relations 應用程序上訪問新聞稿。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced-risk products, or RRPs, as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

術語表，包括降低風險產品或 RRP 的定義，以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國 GAAP 措施的對賬，位於今天網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾，這些幻燈片已發佈在我們的網站上。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。

I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

Additionally, following the comprehensive business review that we provided at our recent Investor Day, today, we will summarize our 2018 full year outlook and third quarter results as well as our performance in select geographies.

此外，繼我們在最近的投資者日提供的全面業務回顧之後，今天，我們將總結我們的 2018 年全年展望和第三季度業績以及我們在特定地區的表現。

For reference, the slides and transcripts for the Investor Day presentations are available on our website and our IR app.

作為參考，投資者日演示文稿的幻燈片和文字記錄可在我們的網站和 IR 應用程序上找到。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Martin King, our Chief Financial Officer.

現在我很高興介紹我們的首席財務官 Martin King。

Martin?

馬丁？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝尼克，歡迎女士們先生們。

As announced this morning, we are reaffirming our 2018 reported diluted earnings per share guidance at prevailing exchange rates to be in a range of $4.97 to $5.02.

正如今天上午宣布的那樣，我們重申我們 2018 年報告的按現行匯率計算的稀釋後每股收益指引在 4.97 美元至 5.02 美元之間。

Our guidance includes $0.12 of unfavorable currency and represents a growth rate, excluding currency, of approximately 8% to 9% compared to our adjusted diluted EPS of $4.72 in 2017.

我們的指引包括 0.12 美元的不利貨幣，與我們 2017 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 4.72 美元相比，增長率約為 8% 至 9%，不包括貨幣。

Our guidance continues to reflect the full year assumptions shown on this slide and detailed in today's press release.

我們的指引繼續反映本幻燈片中顯示並在今天的新聞稿中詳細說明的全年假設。

Importantly, this includes PMI heated tobacco unit shipment volume of 41 billion to 42 billion units, reflecting a net anticipated distributor inventory reduction of approximately 3 billion units; and PMI heated tobacco unit in-market sales volume of 44 billion to 45 billion units.

重要的是，這包括 PMI 加熱煙草單位出貨量 410 億至 420 億支，反映出經銷商庫存淨減少約 30 億支； PMI 加熱煙草單位的市場銷量為 440 億至 450 億支。

Moving to our third quarter results.

轉向我們的第三季度業績。

Total shipment volume decreased by 2.1%, due mainly to the impact of distributor inventory movements, notably related to heated tobacco units in Japan.

總出貨量下降 2.1%，主要是由於分銷商庫存變動的影響，尤其是與日本的加熱煙草裝置有關。

Excluding inventory movements, total shipment volume increased by 1.1%, driven by higher heated tobacco unit volume in the EU, Japan, Korea, the Middle East and Africa region and Russia; as well as higher cigarette volume in select markets, notably Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Turkey.

不計庫存變動，總出貨量增長 1.1%，受歐盟、日本、韓國、中東和非洲地區以及俄羅斯較高的加熱煙草單位銷量推動；以及特定市場的捲煙銷量增加，特別是印度尼西亞、墨西哥、沙特阿拉伯、泰國和土耳其。

September year-to-date, total shipment volume declined by 1.2% but increased by 0.3%, excluding inventory movements.

今年 9 月至今，總出貨量下降了 1.2%，但增加了 0.3%，不包括庫存變動。

Given the impact of distributor heated tobacco unit inventory movements on our third quarter 2018 results, let me take a moment to put this into perspective vis-à-vis the 3 billion-unit full year distributor inventory reduction assumption that we previously communicated.

鑑於分銷商加熱煙草單位庫存變動對我們 2018 年第三季度業績的影響，讓我花點時間將其與我們之前傳達的 30 億單位全年分銷商庫存減少假設進行比較。

As seen on this chart, the full year reduction is driven by Japan and concentrated in the third quarter with a decrease of 3.7 billion units.

從這張圖可以看出，全年的減少是由日本推動的，集中在第三季度，減少了 37 億台。

By comparison, there was an inventory increase in the third quarter of 2017 of 3.2 billion units, resulting in a negative total heated tobacco unit inventory variance of 6.9 billion units.

相比之下，2017 年第三季度的庫存增加了 32 億支，導致加熱煙草單位庫存總量負差異為 69 億支。

For the fourth quarter this year, we anticipate a 0.5 billion unit inventory increase.

對於今年第四季度，我們預計庫存將增加 5 億單位。

This compares to an inventory increase of 7.3 billion units in the fourth quarter of 2017, resulting in a negative total heated tobacco unit inventory variance of 6.8 billion units.

相比之下，2017 年第四季度的庫存增加了 73 億支，導致加熱煙草總庫存量出現負偏差 68 億支。

Importantly, heated tobacco unit inventories have been rightsized, and we are poised for future growth.

重要的是，加熱煙草單位的庫存已經調整，我們為未來的增長做好了準備。

Third quarter net revenues increased by 3.3%, excluding currency, driven by strong pricing for our combustible tobacco portfolio, partly offset by the impact of the heated tobacco unit inventory adjustment that I just noted as well as unfavorable combustible tobacco volume/mix.

第三季度淨收入增長 3.3%，不包括貨幣在內，這是受我們可燃煙草產品組合定價強勁的推動，部分被我剛才提到的加熱煙草部門庫存調整以及不利的可燃煙草銷量/組合的影響所抵消。

Our currency-neutral net revenue growth in the quarter came in slightly above the approximately 2% growth expectation that we provided during Investor Day.

我們本季度的貨幣中性淨收入增長略高於我們在投資者日提供的約 2% 的增長預期。

As this difference mainly reflects timing between the third and fourth quarters, we are maintaining our full year net revenue growth assumption of approximately 3%, excluding currency.

由於這種差異主要反映了第三季度和第四季度之間的時間安排，我們維持全年淨收入增長約 3% 的假設，不包括貨幣。

Given our September year-to-date growth of 6.5%, this implies a decline in the fourth quarter of approximately 5%, largely reflecting the difficult comparison with the nearly 19% growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.

鑑於我們今年 9 月迄今的增長率為 6.5%，這意味著第四季度下降了約 5%，這在很大程度上反映了與 2017 年第四季度近 19% 的增長難以比較。

Adjusted operating income increased by 7.6%, excluding currency, reflecting the price-driven growth in net revenues, the favorable margin impact of lower IQOS device sales as well as lower manufacturing and marketing costs for combustible products, partly offset by incremental RRP investments across IQOS launch markets.

調整後營業收入增長 7.6%，不包括貨幣，反映了淨收入的價格驅動增長、IQOS 設備銷售下降帶來的有利利潤影響以及可燃產品的製造和營銷成本降低，部分被 IQOS 的增量 RRP 投資所抵消啟動市場。

Adjusted operating income margin increased by 1.8 points, excluding currency.

調整後的營業利潤率增加了 1.8 個百分點，不包括貨幣。

Our reported diluted EPS of $1.44 increased by 13.4% in the quarter, driven by favorable business performance, and also benefiting from the lower effective tax rate and lower interest expense compared to the third quarter of 2017.

我們報告的稀釋後每股收益為 1.44 美元，本季度增長 13.4%，這得益於良好的業務表現，以及與 2017 年第三季度相比較低的有效稅率和較低的利息支出。

Excluding currency, adjusted diluted EPS increased by 20.5%.

不計貨幣因素，調整後攤薄每股收益增長 20.5%。

Demonstrating our favorable business momentum, total PMI international market share, excluding China and the U.S., increased by 0.5 points in the third quarter and by 0.6 points September year-to-date.

PMI 國際市場總份額（不包括中國和美國）在第三季度增長了 0.5 個百分點，今年 9 月至今增長了 0.6 個百分點，這表明我們的業務勢頭良好。

The growth for both periods was driven by higher share for heated tobacco products, with the lower cigarette shares reflecting the impact of adult smoker out-switching to our heated tobacco brands.

這兩個時期的增長都是由加熱煙草產品的更高份額推動的，捲菸份額的降低反映了成年吸煙者轉而使用我們的加熱煙草品牌的影響。

Indeed, our cigarette shares within the cigarette category alone were stable.

事實上，我們僅在捲菸類別中的捲煙份額就很穩定。

As discussed in detail by our Chief Operating Officer, Jacek Olczak, during Investor Day, our combustible tobacco portfolio continues to be supported by robust fundamentals.

正如我們的首席運營官 Jacek Olczak 在投資者日期間詳細討論的那樣，我們的可燃煙草產品組合繼續受到強勁基本面的支持。

This is evidenced by our third quarter combustible pricing variance of approximately 8%, driven notably by the EU region, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia.

我們第三季度的可燃物定價差異約為 8%，主要受歐盟地區、印度尼西亞、菲律賓和俄羅斯的推動，就證明了這一點。

Furthermore, our results reflect favorable cigarette share and/or volume trends across a range of key markets.

此外，我們的結果反映了一系列主要市場的有利捲菸份額和/或銷量趨勢。

For example, the decline in cigarette industry volume in Saudi Arabia moderated considerably in the quarter, reflecting the lapping of the June 2017 excise tax implementation.

例如，本季度沙特阿拉伯的捲煙行業銷量下降幅度明顯放緩，反映出 2017 年 6 月消費稅實施的時間已經結束。

Importantly, our market share increased by 6.1 points versus the third quarter of 2017, driven by Marlboro, L&M and Chesterfield, and was up by 1.6 points sequentially.

重要的是，在萬寶路、L&M 和切斯特菲爾德的推動下，我們的市場份額較 2017 年第三季度增長了 6.1 個百分點，環比增長了 1.6 個百分點。

In Turkey, strong cigarette industry volume growth continued in the quarter, supported by the lower prevalence of illicit trade.

在土耳其，受非法貿易流行率降低的支持，本季度捲菸業銷量繼續強勁增長。

In addition, although our August quarter-to-date share declined slightly, share for Marlboro increased by 1.3 points.

此外，儘管我們 8 月季度至今的份額略有下降，但萬寶路的份額增加了 1.3 個百分點。

And in the Philippines, both Marlboro and Fortune drove total cigarette market share growth of 1.2 points in the quarter.

在菲律賓，萬寶路和財富都在本季度推動捲菸市場總份額增長 1.2 個百分點。

Marlboro's performance reflects the brand's strong equity in the market, while Fortune is benefiting from narrowed price gaps with lower-price brands.

萬寶路的業績反映了該品牌在市場上的強大資產，而財富則受益於與低價品牌的價格差距縮小。

Turning to the performance of IQOS.

談到 IQOS 的性能。

We are pleased with the growth in the total user base, which we believe serves as a leading indicator for market share.

我們對總用戶群的增長感到高興，我們認為這是市場份額的領先指標。

Indeed, the positive sequential share performance for our heated tobacco brands continued in the quarter, reaching 1.7% of total cigarette and heated tobacco unit industry volume, excluding China and the U.S.

事實上，我們的加熱煙草品牌在本季度繼續保持積極的連續份額表現，達到捲菸和加熱煙草單位行業總銷量的 1.7%，不包括中國和美國。

In Japan, our largest IQOS market, we recorded stable quarterly HeatSticks share on a sequential basis.

在我們最大的 IQOS 市場日本，我們連續記錄了穩定的季度 HeatSticks 份額。

This is encouraging given that we expect the range of initiatives that we have outlined previously, including the upcoming launch of IQOS 3 and IQOS 3 MULTI, to only have a meaningful impact on share beginning in 2019.

這是令人鼓舞的，因為我們預計我們之前概述的一系列舉措，包括即將推出的 IQOS 3 和 IQOS 3 MULTI，只會對 2019 年開始的份額產生有意義的影響。

Please note, the third quarter in-market sales for both cigarettes and heated tobacco units industry-wide benefited from trade and consumer inventory movements in advance of the October 1 price increases.

請注意，在 10 月 1 日價格上漲之前，第三季度全行業捲菸和加熱煙草單位的市場銷售都受益於貿易和消費者庫存變動。

In Korea, in-market sales volume for HEETS in the quarter was stable on a sequential basis at 1.4 billion units.

在韓國，本季度 HEETS 的市場銷量環比穩定在 14 億台。

Sequential share for HEETS declined, however, partly reflecting the impact of cigarette in-market sales volume seasonality.

然而，HEETS 的連續份額下降，部分反映了捲菸市場銷售量季節性的影響。

The sequential quarterly share trend for HEETS also reflects the impact of misleading comments by the KFDA earlier this year regarding the "tar" generated by IQOS as well as competitive churn associated with the increased distribution coverage of competitors' products.

HEETS 的連續季度份額趨勢也反映了今年早些時候 KFDA 關於 IQOS 產生的“焦油”的誤導性評論的影響，以及與競爭對手產品分銷覆蓋面增加相關的競爭流失。

As Jacek explained at Investor Day, the KFDA's comments have not really been an issue with regard to IQOS users that have already fully made the switch from cigarettes, and thus have discovered the various product attributes for themselves.

正如 Jacek 在投資者日解釋的那樣，KFDA 的評論對於已經完全戒掉香煙的 IQOS 用戶來說並不是真正的問題，因此他們已經為自己發現了各種產品屬性。

Instead, the comments have been impacting those who are new to IQOS or were otherwise planning to enter the heated tobacco category.

相反，這些評論一直在影響那些剛接觸 IQOS 或計劃進入加熱煙草類別的人。

We remain focused on properly educating current IQOS users and adult smokers interested in the heated tobacco category on the differences between tobacco heating and combustion.

我們仍然專注於對當前的 IQOS 用戶和對加熱煙草類別感興趣的成年吸煙者進行適當的教育，讓他們了解煙草加熱和燃燒之間的區別。

We are committed to ensuring that these smokers receive accurate information to guide their choices.

我們致力於確保這些吸煙者獲得準確的信息以指導他們的選擇。

In addition, the upcoming global launch of IQOS 3 devices, which includes Korea, should reinforce IQOS' status as the preeminent heated tobacco brand in the market.

此外，即將在包括韓國在內的全球推出 IQOS 3 設備，應該會加強 IQOS 作為市場上卓越的加熱煙草品牌的地位。

In the EU region, the steady sequential growth of HEETS continued in the quarter, with share reaching 1.2% and reflecting further growth in the IQOS user base.

在歐盟地區，本季度 HEETS 繼續保持穩定的環比增長，份額達到 1.2%，反映出 IQOS 用戶群的進一步增長。

It is also worth highlighting that our quarterly share for HEETS increased in all IQOS markets in the region compared to the third quarter of 2017.

還值得強調的是，與 2017 年第三季度相比，我們的 HEETS 在該地區所有 IQOS 市場的季度份額都有所增加。

Finally, we are particularly encouraged by the strong performance of IQOS in Russia.

最後，我們對 IQOS 在俄羅斯的強勁表現感到特別鼓舞。

In the third quarter, share for HEETS reached 1.1% nationally, although our focus is currently on key cities comprising approximately 20% of the total cigarette market.

第三季度，HEETS 在全國的份額達到 1.1%，儘管我們目前的重點是佔整個捲菸市場約 20% 的主要城市。

Our disciplined approach to geographic and channel expansion allows us to ensure continued improvement in IQOS conversion rates and consumer experience.

我們嚴格的地域和渠道擴張方法使我們能夠確保 IQOS 轉化率和消費者體驗的持續改善。

To conclude, we delivered solid currency-neutral results in the third quarter, driven by strong pricing for our combustible product portfolio and benefiting at the EPS level from a lower effective income tax rate and lower interest expense.

總而言之，我們在第三季度取得了穩健的貨幣中性業績，這得益於我們可燃產品組合的強勁定價以及每股收益水平受益於較低的有效所得稅率和較低的利息支出。

Our 2018 business outlook remains intact, supported by robust fundamentals for combustible products and increasingly broad-based IQOS growth across geographies.

我們 2018 年的業務前景保持不變，這得益於可燃產品強勁的基本面和 IQOS 跨地區日益廣泛的增長。

Consequently, we are reaffirming our 2018 reported diluted EPS guidance, which continues to represent a growth rate of approximately 8% to 9%, excluding currency, compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $4.72 in 2017.

因此，我們重申我們 2018 年報告的攤薄每股收益指引，與 2017 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 4.72 美元相比，該指引繼續代表約 8% 至 9% 的增長率，不包括貨幣。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I'm now happy to answer your questions.

我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗的亞當斯皮爾曼。

So I have 2 questions.

所以我有兩個問題。

The simpler question is on FSA.

更簡單的問題是關於 FSA。

This clearly did much better than I was expecting.

這顯然比我預期的要好得多。

And I suspect it's partly in the Philippines, but a large chunk is Indonesia.

我懷疑它有一部分在菲律賓，但很大一部分在印度尼西亞。

And I was wondering whether you think the good performances there is likely to continue into 2019 or whether you think it is a sort of short-term blip, if you like.

我想知道你是否認為那裡的良好表現可能會持續到 2019 年，或者你是否認為這是一種短期的曇花一現，如果你願意的話。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

I will come onto the second later.

我稍後會談到第二個。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

The Philippines and Indonesia are both performing well.

菲律賓和印度尼西亞都表現良好。

Philippines, Marlboro has been on a multiyear share growth trajectory that continues as the pricing in the market at the low end has moved up.

菲律賓，隨著低端市場價格的上漲，萬寶路一直處於多年的份額增長軌道上。

And it is the preeminent brand in the market, so it continues to grow its share, which is helping lift the overall share.

而且它是市場上的卓越品牌，因此它的份額繼續增長，這有助於提升整體份額。

More recently, a positive has been also that Fortune has started to benefit from the price gaps as well.

最近，《財富》雜誌也開始從價格差距中受益，這也是一個積極因素。

And so its growth has been very good from a share point of view.

因此，從份額的角度來看，它的增長非常好。

And obviously, with the price gaps closing and the trading to Marlboro as -- from a share perspective and Fortune, that's helped the profitability in the market.

顯然，隨著價格差距的縮小和萬寶路的交易——從股票和財富的角度來看，這有助於提高市場的盈利能力。

As far as we can see going forward, I think the Philippines will continue to be a good story with the single-tier tax there and the ability of our brands to continue to do very well.

就我們可以看到的未來而言，我認為菲律賓將繼續成為一個好故事，因為那裡的單層稅和我們品牌繼續做得很好的能力。

For Indonesia, the volume has been better than more recent times, as the market has stabilized.

對於印度尼西亞，隨著市場趨於穩定，成交量比近期要好。

The total market size has stabilized.

市場總規模趨於穩定。

We're looking, probably for the full year, for it to be very slightly down.

我們正在尋找，可能是全年，它會略有下降。

But it's very close now to being flat.

但現在非常接近持平。

Whereas before in previous couple years, it's been down 1% to 2%, 2% to 3%.

而在過去的幾年裡，它下降了 1% 到 2%，下降了 2% 到 3%。

So that's a positive trend.

所以這是一個積極的趨勢。

We're doing very well in Indonesia with a couple of brands we introduced in the last 12 to 18 months, and that is the Dji Sam Soe Magnum Mild, and then also with the Marlboro Filter Black kretek.

我們在過去 12 到 18 個月推出的幾個品牌在印度尼西亞做得很好，那就是 Dji Sam Soe Magnum Mild，然後還有 Marlboro Filter Black kretek。

They have both gained share very nicely, and they continue to do so.

他們都很好地獲得了份額，而且他們會繼續這樣做。

The challenge for us in Indonesia is with down-trading.

我們在印度尼西亞面臨的挑戰是降價交易。

As A Mild has moved through the 20,000 per pack -- rupiah per pack price point, it has lost some share.

由於 A Mild 已經突破了每包 20,000 盧比的價格點，它已經失去了一些份額。

Over time, of course, other brands will move through that price point, and it should recover, but that's still going to take a bit longer to do.

當然，隨著時間的推移，其他品牌將突破這個價格點，它應該會恢復，但這仍然需要更長的時間。

So I think Indonesia's on a good stable platform.

所以我認為印度尼西亞處於一個良好穩定的平台上。

Share is stable to slightly up, and it's been that way now for a good period of time.

份額穩定到略有上升，現在已經有很長一段時間了。

Obviously, we would like to see the share grow.

顯然，我們希望看到份額增長。

We'd like to see A Mild start to do better.

我們希望看到 A Mild 開始做得更好。

And I think that's just going to take some time as the pricing moves through the market.

而且我認為隨著定價在市場上的變化，這將需要一些時間。

As you know, in Indonesia, you have lots of frequent price increases.

如您所知，在印度尼西亞，價格經常上漲。

So yes, that's very good news in that region.

所以是的，這在該地區是個好消息。

Okay.

好的。

So perhaps the more significant question is about your guidance.

所以也許更重要的問題是關於你的指導。

Given your substantial beat, not only on the sales growth, but also on EBIT, I suppose I simply don't understand how your EPS can be as low as you say.

考慮到你的大幅增長，不僅在銷售增長方面，而且在息稅前利潤方面，我想我根本不明白你的每股收益怎麼會像你說的那麼低。

In other words, I estimate that your sort of implying of EPS is it has to be down somewhat, it would seem like, 11% and 15% for 4Q to make your guidance.

換句話說，我估計你對 EPS 的暗示是它必須有所下降，似乎是 11% 和 15% 的第四季度才能做出你的指導。

And particularly is the shipping effects.

尤其是運輸效果。

In fact, one of your slides show the shipping effects on IQOS are fundamentally almost the same in 3Q and 4Q.

事實上，您的一張幻燈片顯示，IQOS 的出貨效果在 3 季度和 4 季度基本上幾乎相同。

I don't understand, given how good EPS was this quarter, why we should think it's going to be down double digit next quarter.

我不明白，鑑於本季度每股收益有多好，為什麼我們認為下個季度每股收益會下降兩位數。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

So let's start at the revenue line.

因此，讓我們從收入線開始。

And the story there is really the comparison with a very high increase in Q4 of last year versus what we're -- what's happening in Q4 this year.

那裡的故事實際上是將去年第四季度的非常高的增長與我們現在的情況進行比較——今年第四季度發生了什麼。

Actually, sequentially, from Q3 to Q4, if you do the math on the revenues to be down to 5% for the quarter versus last year and to be up 3% for the full year, you end up with revenues approximately the same in the fourth quarter as what we're seeing in the third quarter.

實際上，從第 3 季度到第 4 季度，如果您對本季度的收入與去年同期相比下降 5% 而全年增長 3%，那麼您最終的收入將與去年同期大致相同第四季度就像我們在第三季度看到的那樣。

So sequentially, it's not really the issue.

所以按順序，這不是真正的問題。

On the other hand, when you compare Q4 to last year, you have several things going on, most of which relate to Japan.

另一方面，當你將第四季度與去年進行比較時，你會發現幾件事情正在發生，其中大部分與日本有關。

And that is you have the $7 billion almost impact on the inventory comparison year-over-year since we were building last year inventory.

那就是自我們去年建立庫存以來，你對庫存比較的影響幾乎達到 70 億美元。

Whereas this year, the inventory is relatively flat.

而今年，庫存相對持平。

So that right there is a pretty significant comparison issue.

因此，就存在一個非常重要的比較問題。

You also pay back in Q4 in Japan the volume that related to this recent pricing that occurred since retail and consumers loaded in the end of Q3.

您還在日本第四季度償還了與零售和消費者在第三季度末裝載以來發生的最近定價相關的數量。

And so you will pay that back in Q4.

所以你會在第四季度還清這筆錢。

That's probably around 1.5 billion sticks between conventional and heated tobacco units.

傳統和加熱煙草裝置之間可能約為 15 億支。

That's just approximate.

那隻是近似值。

And then the other piece is the difference in device sales from last year to this year.

然後另一塊是去年和今年設備銷量的差異。

Last year, we were bringing on the additional supplier and adding more volume into the market as we were getting ready to lift the cap in the end of January of this year.

去年，當我們準備在今年 1 月底取消上限時，我們引入了額外的供應商並增加了市場銷量。

Whereas this year, we're launching 3 and 3 MULTI.

今年，我們推出了 3 和 3 MULTI。

However, we have sufficient inventory of 2.4-plus.

但是，我們有足夠的 2.4-plus 庫存。

So the comparison year-over-year on devices is also another piece of that.

因此，設備的同比比較也是其中的一部分。

If you carve out the rest of the business, the revenues are actually up about the same in Q4 of this year -- or will be, we anticipate, Q4 this year versus Q4 last year around 5%.

如果你剝離其餘業務，今年第四季度的收入實際上增長大致相同——或者，我們預計，今年第四季度與去年第四季度相比增長 5% 左右。

But the Japan effects are very significant when you add those impacts up.

但是當你將這些影響加起來時，日本的影響非常顯著。

The other piece, when you take it down to the EPS level, is the cost pattern.

另一部分，當你把它降低到每股收益水平時，就是成本模式。

We're still on track with the cost that we -- the spending increases that we mentioned before, around $600 million incremental on RRP.

我們仍在按照我們之前提到的支出增加的成本走上正軌，建議零售價增加約 6 億美元。

But a bigger piece of it comes in the fourth quarter.

但更大的一部分出現在第四季度。

So we are stepping up the spending timing in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們正在加快第四季度的支出時間。

Overall, it's still more or less the same.

總的來說，還是差不多的。

And that's partly behind the 3 and 3 MULTI launch around the world as well as other activities around RRP, where we're rolling out some of the efficiencies and improvements that we've been preparing all year.

這在一定程度上推動了 3 和 3 MULTI 在全球的發布以及圍繞 RRP 的其他活動，我們正在推出我們全年準備的一些效率和改進。

So it's all baked into the guidance.

所以這一切都融入了指南。

The 8% to 9% takes into account these issues as well as the pricing and everything else.

8% 到 9% 考慮了這些問題以及定價和其他一切。

So to summarize this, to make sure I don't misunderstand, sequentially, so think about it -- because I think this is the easiest, because you've got a $7 billion deload, in effect, in both quarters, 3Q and 4Q, you expect roughly.

所以總結一下，為了確保我不會按順序誤解，所以考慮一下 - 因為我認為這是最簡單的，因為你實際上在第三季度和第四季度的兩個季度都有 70 億美元的減負，你大致期望。

Sequentially, when all is said and done, sales will be roughly the same, but EPS is going to go down sharply because you're investing more behind the version 3 device.

隨後，當一切都說完之後，銷售額將大致相同，但 EPS 將急劇下降，因為您在第 3 版設備後面投資更多。

I mean, to me that sounds like the key difference between Q3 and Q4 when you come to the cost line if sales is going to be the same roughly.

我的意思是，對我來說，如果銷售額大致相同，那麼當你來到成本線時，這聽起來像是第三季度和第四季度之間的關鍵區別。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, revenue is more or less the same.

我的意思是，收入或多或少是一樣的。

I mean, obviously, there are other impacts in there, like, as I mentioned, the timing on the pricing for Japan has an impact.

我的意思是，很明顯，還有其他影響，就像我提到的，日本定價的時機有影響。

And there are other movements around the world, both between Q3, Q4, et cetera.

世界各地還有其他運動，都在第三季度、第四季度等之間。

But overall, I think it's all baked in.

但總的來說，我認為這一切都已經融入其中。

Our next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

Martin, just the first question is on the IQOS next-gen 3 and the MULTI launch in the fourth quarter.

馬丁，第一個問題是關於 IQOS 下一代 3 和第四季度推出的 MULTI。

So it sounds like in Korea, they're announcing a launch next week.

所以這聽起來像是在韓國，他們宣布下週推出。

I'm just wondering from a timing perspective if you can just remind us sort of the phasing of the launch by different markets.

我只是想從時間的角度來看，您是否可以提醒我們不同市場的發布階段。

Is Japan going first?

日本是第一個嗎？

And then Japan -- sorry, is Korea going first, and then Japan?

然後是日本——抱歉，韓國是先行，然後是日本？

Or kind of thinking about the timing around that is my first question.

或者考慮一下時間安排是我的第一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

It will become more clear in the next short period of time.

在接下來的短時間內，它會變得更加清晰。

But essentially, Japan and Korea are on the same time line.

但本質上，日本和韓國處於同一條時間線上。

And we're getting ready for having a really successful introduction because we think these devices are a step forward and will help cement our already good position as the premium RRP brand in both those markets.

我們正準備推出真正成功的產品，因為我們認為這些設備是向前邁出的一步，將有助於鞏固我們在這兩個市場中作為優質 RRP 品牌的良好地位。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then in Japan, so the inventory loading ahead of the price increases, I think you called out $1.5 billion in total in the third quarter.

然後在日本，所以在價格上漲之前庫存增加，我認為你在第三季度總共調用了 15 億美元。

I'm just wondering if you can break out a little bit of just combustible versus the HeatSticks.

我只是想知道您是否可以與 HeatSticks 分開一點可燃物。

And then I know it's early in the days, but kind of what are you seeing in terms of the consumer acceptance to those pricing and the volume elasticity around that?

然後我知道現在還為時過早，但是您在消費者對這些定價的接受度以及圍繞這些定價的數量彈性方面看到了什麼？

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

First of all, the prices have only been there a very, very short period of time.

首先，價格出現的時間非常非常短。

So it's too early to really see any patterns in how consumers are reacting.

因此，現在真正了解消費者反應的任何模式還為時過早。

In Japan, just let me point out, to make sure people understand.

在日本，讓我指出一下，以確保人們理解。

What I'm referring to is retail stores and consumers buying ahead of the price increase, which occurred in the third quarter.

我指的是零售商店和消費者在價格上漲之前購買，價格上漲發生在第三季度。

It doesn't have anything to do with our own shipments to distributors, et cetera.

它與我們自己向分銷商等的發貨沒有任何關係。

This is consumers.

這是消費者。

However, in the fourth quarter, obviously, consumers and retailers would reverse that.

然而，在第四季度，消費者和零售商顯然會扭轉這種局面。

And so you could anticipate lower sales.

因此，您可以預期銷售額會下降。

As far as the exact amount, it's difficult to estimate a precise amount.

至於確切的數額，很難估計一個精確的數額。

I was giving a round number on the revenue just to give a sense for it.

我給出了一個關於收入的整數，只是為了讓大家對它有所了解。

We think on heated tobacco units in Japan for the quarter, we were flat to maybe slightly up, if you exclude the inventory or the impact of the pricing.

如果排除庫存或定價的影響，我們認為本季度日本的加熱煙草單位持平甚至可能略有上升。

But that's just an estimate, right?

但這只是一個估計，對吧？

So if you figure it was at $7.5 billion in there, if we figure it's about maybe 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, somewhere in that range, and whereas cigarettes were around 0.6 or so, I mean, that's just a rough estimate, Judy.

因此，如果你計算出那裡的價值為 75 億美元，如果我們計算出它可能約為 0.7、0.8、0.9，在該範圍內的某個位置，而香煙約為 0.6 左右，我的意思是，這只是粗略估計，朱蒂。

You don't really know until you see how it flows out into the consumers and how the prices are accepted.

直到您看到它如何流入消費者以及價格如何被接受之前，您才真正知道。

And it's too early to really see that yet.

現在真正看到這一點還為時過早。

Got it, okay.

知道了，好的。

And then just my last question just in terms of Russia.

然後是我關於俄羅斯的最後一個問題。

So nice to see continued price improvement in that market.

很高興看到該市場的價格持續上漲。

Just give us an update in terms of competitively what you're seeing in the marketplace, and then sort of the sustainability of this more stable pricing environment in your view.

只需向我們介紹您在市場上看到的具有競爭力的最新情況，然後在您看來這種更穩定的定價環境的可持續性。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, there's really no new news.

我的意思是，真的沒有新消息。

The pricing continues to roll through pretty much as we've been talking throughout the year.

正如我們全年一直在談論的那樣，定價繼續滾動。

We still see some down-trading from the mid-price brands like our Bond Street to lower price.

我們仍然看到一些中等價位品牌的降價交易，例如我們的 Bond Street 到更低的價格。

We actually see our premium Parliament, et cetera, holding up pretty well.

我們實際上看到我們的高級議會等等，表現得很好。

But the pricing environment is more or less what we communicated in previous quarters, which means it's being pushed through.

但定價環境或多或少是我們在前幾個季度所傳達的，這意味著它正在被推動。

There are certain times when we see higher levels of inventory being used in order to delay the timing between announcing pricing versus when consumers actually get it.

在某些時候，我們會看到使用更高水平的庫存來延遲宣布定價與消費者實際獲得定價之間的時間。

But there's really no new news on that front.

但在這方面確實沒有新消息。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Vivien Azer。

So my first question is on the EU, and the margin improvement continue to be quite strong on the heels of a good second quarter print as well.

所以我的第一個問題是關於歐盟，在第二季度的良好表現之後，利潤率的改善繼續相當強勁。

Anything to call out there in terms of geographic mix?

在地理組合方面有什麼值得一提的嗎？

Obviously, the pricing has been a bit better, but anything else to call out?

顯然，定價要好一些，但還有什麼要說的嗎？

Well, I think Germany's been a bright spot with the performance of the brand, Marlboro, and we've seen some good results there.

好吧，我認為德國一直是萬寶路品牌表現的亮點，我們在那裡看到了一些不錯的結果。

I mean, overall, across the EU, the bigger story is about the success on the heated tobacco units and IQOS.

我的意思是，總的來說，在整個歐盟，更大的故事是關於加熱煙草裝置和 IQOS 的成功。

We're seeing very nice momentum across all the markets with growth.

我們看到所有市場的增長勢頭都非常好。

And you see it in the number of users, which is really the key metric to keep looking at because that, for us, is what tells us that we're converting smokers and locking in a better future as far as having higher margins and higher benefits for shareholders from the consumer.

你在用戶數量上看到了這一點，這確實是需要持續關注的關鍵指標，因為對我們來說，這告訴我們，我們正在改變吸煙者並鎖定一個更美好的未來，因為它有更高的利潤和更高的利潤。股東從消費者那裡獲益。

So EU's on a very good trajectory.

所以歐盟的發展軌跡非常好。

But it's -- most of it, the most exciting part is the success of the heated tobacco units.

但它 - 大多數，最令人興奮的部分是加熱煙草裝置的成功。

Terrific.

了不起。

That's certainly encouraging to hear.

這當然令人鼓舞。

My next question is on Saudi Arabia.

我的下一個問題是關於沙特阿拉伯的。

Clearly, we understand the volume pressure from the excise taxes.

顯然，我們了解消費稅帶來的銷量壓力。

And your market shares clearly look quite good, but there have been press reports that Saudi is looking to implement plain packaging.

你們的市場份額顯然看起來相當不錯，但有媒體報導說沙特正在尋求實施無裝飾包裝。

Any updates on that?

有什麼更新嗎？

And how are you thinking about potential impacts to your business?

您如何考慮對您的業務的潛在影響？

Yes.

是的。

We don't have any new news on that.

我們對此沒有任何新消息。

I mean, obviously, we're happy to be lapping the big -- or the implementation of excise.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們很高興能夠解決大問題——或實施消費稅。

And that helps us as far as our comps moving forward, but we don't really have any other additional news in Saudi.

就我們的公司而言，這有助於我們向前發展，但我們在沙特沒有任何其他額外消息。

Fair enough.

很公平。

My last question, please, is have you had any new engagement with the FDA on your IQOS applications?

我的最後一個問題是，您是否與 FDA 就您的 IQOS 應用程序進行了任何新的接觸？

We're in the same place we were at Investor Day, which is we're hopeful that we would hear something on the PMTA by the end of this year.

我們在投資者日的同一個地方，我們希望到今年年底能聽到有關 PMTA 的消息。

But it's really in the hands of the FDA, and we don't have anything more to add.

但它確實掌握在 FDA 手中，我們沒有更多要補充的東西。

I think we've covered it pretty well at Investor Day, and there's really nothing new on that front either.

我認為我們在投資者日已經很好地涵蓋了它，而且在這方面也確實沒有什麼新鮮事。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Michael Lavery。

Just looking at the heated tobacco and the revenues you reported for that by segment, along with the HeatSticks volumes.

只需查看加熱煙草和您按細分市場報告的收入，以及 HeatSticks 的銷量。

I know you don't give the number of devices, which is a part of that.

我知道您沒有提供設備數量，這是其中的一部分。

But just crudely calculating the revenue per stick, it looks like Russia or Eastern Europe has gone up considerably from last year; and Middle East, Africa Duty Free and East Asia are down a bit.

但粗略計算每根棍子的收入，俄羅斯或東歐似乎比去年增加了很多；而中東、非洲免稅店和東亞則略有下降。

Can you just help us understand, is device mix a big part of that?

你能幫我們理解一下，設備組合是其中很大一部分嗎？

Have you had any lower pricing that has driven it?

您是否有任何較低的定價推動了它？

Have you seen the discount on the IQOS device in Japan that you made sort of basically permanent be a driver of that?

您是否看到日本 IQOS 設備的折扣基本上是永久性的？

How do we think about just some of that portfolio mix within the IQOS platform?

我們如何考慮 IQOS 平台內的部分產品組合？

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

I mean, Russia is doing very well and continues to grow very nicely at a stepped-up pace from what it was some time ago.

我的意思是，俄羅斯做得很好，並且繼續以比前一段時間更快的速度增長。

Duty Free is continuing to show good growth this year.

免稅品今年繼續保持良好增長。

I think you see the stories for Japan and for Korea in the graphs that we showed during the presentation.

我想你在我們演示期間展示的圖表中看到了日本和韓國的故事。

The volume is stable to slightly up in Japan if you strip out the effects of the pricing.

如果剔除定價的影響，日本的銷量穩定到略有上升。

In Korea, it's stable.

在韓國，它是穩定的。

The number of devices sold is pretty much in line.

售出的設備數量幾乎一致。

It's lower than it was before.

它比以前低。

Partly with regard to Japan, of course, it was that we had sold it to our distributor there.

當然，部分是關於日本的，我們已經把它賣給了我們在那裡的經銷商。

And we've now been working off of those inventories as opposed to seeing new additional shipments, which would, in fact, impact revenue.

我們現在一直在處理這些庫存，而不是看到新的額外出貨量，這實際上會影響收入。

They've been reduced to bring that inventory back in the line just as we've communicated we would do.

正如我們已經溝通過的那樣，他們已經減少庫存以將庫存帶回生產線。

And going forward in Q4, you're going to see the 3 and 3 MULTI coming in.

展望第四季度，您將看到 3 和 3 MULTI 的出現。

But as it's a new product and we're ramping up production, the year-over-year comparison on devices will be negative for Japan compared to Q4 last year.

但由於這是一種新產品，而且我們正在提高產量，與去年第四季度相比，日本的設備同比比較將是負面的。

But other than that, I think you really get the effects of the growth offset by the inventory changes that we communicated for Japan.

但除此之外，我認為你真的得到了我們為日本傳達的庫存變化所抵消的增長影響。

And so I realize that you have all the data yourself, so you might not have a back of the envelope way like this that you would even look at it.

所以我意識到你自己擁有所有數據，所以你可能沒有像這樣的信封背面，你甚至不會看它。

But for example, in Eastern Europe, the price per stick -- the total IQOS revenues per HeatStick were up over 25%.

但例如，在東歐，每根棒的價格——每根 HeatStick 的 IQOS 總收入上漲了 25% 以上。

Is that -- would that suggest a greater skew to devices?

那是——這是否意味著對設備的更大傾斜？

And if so, is that a potentially good leading indicator of increasing adoption with the stick sales to follow?

如果是這樣，這是否是一個潛在的良好領先指標，表明隨著大棒銷售的增加，採用率不斷提高？

I'm not sure I follow that.

我不確定我是否遵循這一點。

I mean, obviously, when we sell devices, it's flattering the revenue.

我的意思是，很明顯，當我們銷售設備時，它會增加收入。

And until you have a consumer with the device, you don't get the stick sales.

在您擁有該設備的消費者之前，您不會獲得大宗銷售。

So there's a lag.

所以有一個滯後。

So as you're opening a new market, you might see the revenues from the devices be a heavier proportion until you've converted smokers to it, and then they start to purchase and repurchase the HeatSticks.

因此，當您打開一個新市場時，您可能會看到來自設備的收入比例更高，直到您將吸煙者轉化為它，然後他們開始購買並重新購買 HeatSticks。

So there's often a period of time where, when we look at a metric like HeatSticks per device sold, in a newer market, that would be relatively low.

因此，通常有一段時間，當我們查看像 HeatSticks 這樣的指標時，在較新的市場中，每台設備的銷售量會相對較低。

And then it would pick up steam as you convert more users.

然後它會隨著您轉換更多用戶而加速發展。

So some of these metrics can be affected by either very rapid growth, like what's happening in Russia, where you're converting a lot of people and selling devices, but then the HeatSticks lag that.

因此，其中一些指標可能會受到非常快速的增長的影響，比如俄羅斯正在發生的事情，在那裡你正在轉換很多人並銷售設備，但 HeatSticks 卻落後於此。

So it depends on where the market is as far as whether it's stable from the point of view or whether it's adding users at a very fast pace versus a more mature state, where it's adding users, but maybe not as quickly.

因此，這取決於市場所處的位置，從角度來看它是否穩定，或者它是否以非常快的速度增加用戶，而不是更成熟的狀態，它正在增加用戶，但可能不會那麼快。

That might have something to do with some of your back-of-the-envelope calculations.

這可能與您的某些粗略計算有關。

But I'm not sure I can really help you with that.

但我不確定我是否真的可以幫助你。

No, that's very helpful.

不，這非常有幫助。

That's exactly the way it looks, so that's great color.

這就是它的外觀，所以顏色很棒。

Just one more on HeatSticks and pricing.

關於 HeatSticks 和定價的更多信息。

Can you just give us some of your thinking as the business now is getting to be 2-or-more years old in many markets?

您能否給我們一些您的想法，因為現在的業務在許多市場上已經有 2 年或更長時間了？

As you're taking regular price increases on cigarettes, are you applying those to HeatSticks as well?

當您對香煙定期提價時，您是否也將這些價格應用於 HeatSticks？

I know, typically, you have some modest discounts.

我知道，通常情況下，你們會有一些適度的折扣。

There's a small price gap relative to, say, Marlboro, for example.

例如，相對於萬寶路，價格差距很小。

But when you're taking cigarette price increases, do HeatSticks tend to benefit from that as well?

但是，當您考慮到捲菸價格上漲時，HeatSticks 是否也會從中受益？

Well, the best example is what we're doing in Japan right now.

嗯，最好的例子就是我們現在在日本所做的事情。

So we increased the price on Marlboro HeatSticks from JPY 470 to JPY 510 -- I mean, JPY 500, whereas we increased from the -- I'm sorry, from JPY 460 to JPY 500 on the Marlboro heated tobacco units, whereas the Marlboro cigarettes went from JPY 470 to JPY 510.

所以我們將 Marlboro HeatSticks 的價格從 470 日元提高到 510 日元——我是說，500 日元，而我們從——對不起，萬寶路加熱煙草裝置的價格從 460 日元提高到 500 日元，而萬寶路香煙從 470 日元漲到 510 日元。

So the increase was actually the same, but we kept a small differential in the price.

所以漲幅實際上是一樣的，但我們在價格上保持了很小的差異。

So I think it's going to depend on each market.

所以我認為這將取決於每個市場。

Obviously, we want our heated tobacco units to be premium products, and we don't want to have too big a gap.

顯然，我們希望我們的加熱煙草產品是優質產品，我們不希望差距太大。

The other piece that can influence it is how big is the tax benefit in each country and making sure that we pass some of that tax benefit, where it's appropriate, to consumers.

另一個可能影響它的因素是每個國家的稅收優惠有多大，並確保我們在適當的時候將部分稅收優惠傳遞給消費者。

So in general, I think over the long haul, you'll see the pricing from heated tobacco units come, but it will depend on the situation in the market with regard to taxes and with regard to where we are as far as establishing the category and establishing the brand.

所以總的來說，我認為從長遠來看，你會看到加熱煙草單位的定價來了，但這將取決於稅收方面的市場情況以及我們在建立類別方面的情況並建立品牌。

Japan's the most mature of all, and you see the pricing that occurred there recently, which kept gaps, but moved with cigarettes.

日本是最成熟的國家，您會看到那裡最近出現的定價，它保持差距，但隨著香煙的變化而變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

Martin, I have a question on your total operating margin.

馬丁，我有一個關於你的總營業利潤率的問題。

It expanded nicely despite higher spending, and was probably driven by your lower IQOS device sales in the quarter.

儘管支出增加，但它的擴張很好，這可能是由於本季度 IQOS 設備銷量較低所致。

So I'm wondering, as you ramp your new device sales in Q4, how much of a negative impact will this have on your margins?

所以我想知道，當您在第四季度增加新設備銷量時，這會對您的利潤產生多大的負面影響？

And then, actually, maybe going back to an earlier question on your guidance, couldn't this explain why your EPS growth in Q4 won't be higher?

然後，實際上，也許回到之前關於你的指導的問題，這不能解釋為什麼你在第四季度的每股收益增長不會更高嗎？

And then as we think about next year and you continue to build or ramp your new device sales, just trying to get a sense of the impact this might have going forward on your margin.

然後當我們考慮明年並且您繼續建立或增加新設備的銷售時，只是想了解這可能對您的利潤率產生的影響。

Yes.

是的。

So I think you're right to look at device sales as having an impact on the margin.

所以我認為你認為設備銷售對利潤率有影響是正確的。

And we actually called it out in previous quarters when we were shipping ahead of demand and had higher device sales as a percentage of net revenues for RRP.

事實上，我們在前幾個季度就已經提前出貨，並且設備銷售額佔 RRP 淨收入的百分比更高。

I mean, we've given this sort of rule of thumb.

我的意思是，我們已經給出了這種經驗法則。

It's around 25%.

大約是 25%。

But -- like in the first quarter, it was quite high.

但是 - 就像第一季度一樣，它非常高。

It was like 36%, and that dragged our margins a lot.

大概是 36%，這大大拖累了我們的利潤率。

Now you're seeing in Q3, it was lower because we were drawing down inventories.

現在你在第三季度看到，它較低是因為我們正在減少庫存。

It was about 14%.

大約是 14%。

So you see the benefit now swinging the other way when you compare.

因此，當您進行比較時，您會看到現在的優勢在向另一方向擺動。

So over time, I think it works out to be around 25% of RRPs.

所以隨著時間的推移，我認為它會達到建議零售價的 25% 左右。

But it's going to be variable depending on the timing of either inventory adjustments or, of course, launching additional devices.

但它會根據庫存調整的時間或當然是啟動其他設備的時間而變化。

Now 3 and 3 MULTI coming in now in the fourth quarter, we're obviously ramping up supply as well.

現在 3 和 3 MULTI 將在第四季度上市，我們顯然也在增加供應。

So it's not as though we can ship as many as we would like, right?

所以我們不能隨心所欲地發貨，對吧？

We have to live within what can be manufactured.

我們必須生活在可以製造的範圍內。

So I don't know that you'll see such a huge surge of it because of the fact that you have to get it distributed.

所以我不知道你會看到它如此巨大的激增，因為你必須分發它。

You have to get it in consumers' hands.

你必須把它交到消費者手中。

You have to explain it.

你必須解釋它。

Plus, you have to be able to manufacture it.

另外，您必須能夠製造它。

So going forward, I think the 25% weighting is probably the best estimate, but it's going to vary.

所以展望未來，我認為 25% 的權重可能是最好的估計，但它會有所不同。

Okay.

好的。

No, that's helpful.

不，那很有幫助。

And then along those same lines, as you think about next year, then we should expect these -- the new device sales to continue to sort of build, especially in Q1 and probably Q2, and then, depending on the demand, throughout the year.

然後沿著同樣的路線，正如你對明年的看法，那麼我們應該期待這些——新設備的銷售將繼續增長，尤其是在第一季度，可能還有第二季度，然後，根據需求，全年.

So maybe it's not so front-end loaded?

所以也許它不是那麼前端加載？

I'm just trying to get a sense of the phasing also as we look forward into 2019.

在我們展望 2019 年時，我也只是想了解分階段的情況。

Yes.

是的。

I'm not sure I can help you with much more than what I've just said.

除了我剛才所說的，我不確定我能為您提供更多幫助。

Keep in mind, though, we will also continue to sell the 2.4-plus device in the markets.

不過請記住，我們還將繼續在市場上銷售 2.4+ 設備。

And we will use both as important ways to both reach more price-sensitive consumers or newer consumers who may not be willing to invest as much in a device for 2.4-plus, but use the 3 and 3 MULTI as a more premium offering and giving consumers that consecutive experience option with the 3 MULTI.

我們將同時使用這兩種重要方式來吸引對價格更敏感的消費者或新消費者，他們可能不願意為 2.4-plus 設備投入太多，而是將 3 和 3 MULTI 用作更優質的產品和贈品連續體驗 3 MULTI 選項的消費者。

That's very important.

這非常重要。

I think it'll help us a lot in Japan and Korea especially, but also in other markets.

我認為這對我們尤其是在日本和韓國有很大幫助，但在其他市場也是如此。

So they both have a role to play going forward.

因此，他們都可以在未來發揮作用。

And part of it's going to depend on how fast we convert consumers.

部分取決於我們轉換消費者的速度。

Because obviously, as we ramp up our efforts and continue to get better at reaching consumers and converting consumers, you would need the devices to go with that.

因為很明顯，隨著我們加大努力並繼續更好地接觸消費者和轉化消費者，您需要設備來配合。

All right.

好的。

And then, actually, is a little bit along the lines of my next question, which was on the spending behind IQOS.

然後，實際上，有點符合我的下一個問題，即 IQOS 背後的支出。

You mentioned, I think, that Q4 spending might be a little bit higher again as you roll out these new devices.

你提到，我認為，隨著你推出這些新設備，第四季度的支出可能會再次增加一點。

But just wanted to confirm that your total spending for the year in terms of incremental spend will still be around that $600 million range.

但只是想確認您今年的增量支出總支出仍將在 6 億美元左右。

And then just want to get a sense, as we look forward, how should we think about any increased levels of spending you might need to do as, again, you try and increase conversion?

然後只是想了解一下，正如我們期待的那樣，我們應該如何考慮您可能需要做的任何增加的支出水平，因為您再次嘗試提高轉化率？

Will it be the same level next year?

明年會是這個水平嗎？

Or do you need to ramp that further?

或者你需要進一步提高嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The $600 million that we communicated earlier in the year is intact.

我們在今年早些時候傳達的 6 億美元完好無損。

We're on track for that.

我們正朝著這個方向前進。

I was referring to the phasing of it, where it's a bit heavier in the fourth quarter to support the 3 and 3 MULTI launch, but also some other initiatives.

我指的是它的分階段，在第四季度它有點重，以支持 3 和 3 MULTI 的發布，還有一些其他舉措。

So it's more the weighting within the quarters that I was referring to.

因此，更多的是我所指的季度內的權重。

The total incremental spend, net of CC reallocations, is intact at about $600 million.

扣除 CC 重新分配後的總增量支出保持不變，約為 6 億美元。

As far as next year, I'll just reiterate what we said before, which is that we expect that a chunk of that investment that we've made this year will support higher volumes going forward in next year.

就明年而言，我將重申我們之前所說的話，即我們預計我們今年所做的大部分投資將支持明年更高的銷量。

In other words, it won't need to be scaled with higher volumes and spread.

換句話說，它不需要通過更高的交易量和傳播來擴展。

Whereas there will be another portion, which we will need to continue to increase as we reach more consumers and as we move forward in additional geographies.

而還有另一部分，隨著我們接觸到更多的消費者以及我們在更多地區的發展，我們將需要繼續增加這一部分。

So it'll be a mix.

所以這將是一個混合。

We are also, as we communicated at Investor Day, working hard at reallocating our spending and getting spending efficiencies out of our current business as part of our transformation.

正如我們在投資者日所傳達的那樣，作為我們轉型的一部分，我們也在努力重新分配我們的支出並提高我們當前業務的支出效率。

That will be through various efforts, including the normal operations, activities around productivity and SKU rationalization supply chain, but also a new initiative around zero-based budgeting methodology to work hard on scrubbing our spending and making sure we're putting it to the great best use, some of which would be invested in improving revenue growth and helping to fund these investments that we need to make, and some of which helps us with our step and our growth targets, where we're growing from at least 5% compound annual growth rate on revenue stepping up to the 8 -- at least 8% compound annual growth rate, x currency, both of them for the earnings per share.

這將通過各種努力，包括正常運營、圍繞生產力和 SKU 合理化供應鏈的活動，以及圍繞零基預算方法的新舉措，以努力清理我們的支出並確保我們將其投入到偉大的最佳用途，其中一些將投資於提高收入增長並幫助為我們需要進行的這些投資提供資金，其中一些幫助我們實現我們的步驟和增長目標，我們從至少 5% 的複合增長年收入增長率達到 8——至少 8% 的複合年增長率，x 貨幣，兩者均為每股收益。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe just one final question for me, if I may.

如果可以的話，也許只有最後一個問題要問我。

Just in terms of IQOS and the progression in different markets.

就 IQOS 和不同市場的進展而言。

You talked about the success you're having.

你談到了你所取得的成功。

And maybe you could highlight, again, 1 or 2 markets that you're really excited about in terms of what you're seeing and where a couple of more markets could really take off.

也許你可以再次強調 1 或 2 個市場，就你所看到的而言，你真的很興奮，還有幾個市場可以真正起飛。

And then on the flip side of that, are there any markets right now that are possibly presenting some challenges or maybe similar in terms of complexity to what you've experienced in Japan, where you're at now in that market or possibly that give you pause, that would help.

然後另一方面，現在是否有任何市場可能會帶來一些挑戰，或者在復雜性方面可能與您在日本所經歷的情況相似，您現在在那個市場中所處的位置，或者可能給你停下來，那會有所幫助。

Just a couple of markets where you're super excited, and then maybe a couple that you're a little bit concerned about.

只是幾個你非常興奮的市場，然後可能是一些你有點擔心的市場。

Yes.

是的。

Well, first of all, I would say we have very broad geographic success with this product.

好吧，首先，我想說我們在這個產品上取得了非常廣泛的地理成功。

It's doing well all across the EU.

它在整個歐盟都表現良好。

It's doing well across many, many, many markets.

它在許多很多市場上表現良好。

So it's hard to pick out just 1 or 2 to say they're particularly interesting.

所以很難只挑出 1 或 2 個來說明它們特別有趣。

Russia is the one that we flagged, and you've seen very positive momentum there.

俄羅斯是我們標記的國家，你已經看到那裡的勢頭非常積極。

We've implemented a lot of the tools and approaches that we intend to spread to other markets later in Russia as something of our pilot or testing ground.

我們已經實施了很多工具和方法，我們打算稍後將它們傳播到俄羅斯的其他市場，作為我們的試點或試驗場。

And we've seen excellent success and excellent execution via the team in Russia around all sorts of tools with regard to digital and other approaches that we will continue to roll out in other markets as well.

我們已經看到俄羅斯團隊在數字和其他方法方面的各種工具取得了巨大的成功和出色的執行，我們也將繼續在其他市場推出這些工具。

I mean, I think the big challenges we've talked about quite extensively being overcoming in Korea, this issue around misunderstanding caused by the misstatements that were made, and trying to reach consumers and make sure they get the accurate message about what this product does do; and then, of course, in Japan where we have very good initiatives coming now very soon in the fourth quarter, not just the 3 and 3.0 MULTI launch, but also the HEETS launch at the mainstream price of JPY 470.

我的意思是，我認為我們已經廣泛討論的重大挑戰正在韓國被克服，這個問題圍繞著錯誤陳述造成的誤解，並試圖接觸消費者並確保他們得到關於該產品功能的準確信息做;然後，當然，在日本，我們很快就會在第四季度推出非常好的舉措，不僅是 3 和 3.0 MULTI 的發布，還有以 470 日元的主流價格推出的 HEETS。

And that will help us in the more price-sensitive areas is where we'll start with it.

這將幫助我們在對價格更敏感的領域成為我們的起點。

And of course, the messaging, the approach to the consumer base, improving our execution across the whole line, we've been working very, very hard on that across all the markets, but especially focusing in on Japan and Korea.

當然，消息傳遞、面向消費者群的方法、提高我們在整個產品線的執行力，我們一直在所有市場上非常非常努力地工作，但特別關注日本和韓國。

And we hope to see the benefits from these initiatives really start to show up essentially in 2019.

我們希望看到這些舉措的好處在 2019 年真正開始顯現。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

Just had a couple of questions for you.

只是有幾個問題要問你。

I want to ask, within the combustible business, if you could speak to like the mix performance.

我想問一下，在可燃物行業，您是否可以說喜歡混合性能。

You've had -- I guess, I'm thinking about in the context of having some conversions of discount brands around the world to global brands.

你已經 - 我想，我正在考慮將世界各地的折扣品牌轉變為全球品牌。

And just how mix overall has performed.

以及整體表現如何。

It's probably a mixture of country and product mix in that question, but just curious if you have any statement -- any comments on that.

在這個問題中，它可能是國家和產品組合的混合體，但很好奇你是否有任何陳述——對此有任何評論。

Yes.

是的。

We have been working at consolidating brands into the global brands for efficiency reasons.

出於效率原因，我們一直致力於將品牌整合為全球品牌。

Because you can support centrally a campaign and an approach and a look and a feel for only a restricted number or smaller number of global brands.

因為您可以集中支持有限數量或更少數量的全球品牌的活動和方法以及外觀和感覺。

So moving some of the local brands in -- a great example is what we did in Russia moving some brands into Philip Morris and being able to support it better.

因此，將一些本地品牌轉移到 - 一個很好的例子是我們在俄羅斯所做的將一些品牌轉移到菲利普莫里斯並能夠更好地支持它。

And you see Philip Morris growing in Russia.

你會看到菲利普莫里斯在俄羅斯的成長。

That's for efficiency reasons, but also for consumer reasons.

這是出於效率原因，也是出於消費者原因。

It gives consumers a more established brand to migrate towards.

它為消費者提供了一個更成熟的品牌來遷移。

I mean, obviously, there are some challenges around mix in certain countries.

我的意思是，顯然，在某些國家/地區，混合存在一些挑戰。

I mentioned Indonesia earlier, where you have certain price points you're moving through and you have some down-trading that occurs.

我之前提到過印度尼西亞，那裡有一些你正在經歷的價格點，並且發生了一些下跌交易。

Over time, that can flow the other way.

隨著時間的推移，它可以以另一種方式流動。

It depends on which brands are going through which price point.

這取決於哪些品牌正在經歷哪個價位。

But we are focused on getting more efficient and working on consolidating our brands around the world.

但我們專注於提高效率，並致力於鞏固我們在全球的品牌。

And just to reiterate, is that movement to some of those global brands for more local brands, is that mix -- does that affect your mix?

只是重申一下，是否有一些全球品牌轉向更多本地品牌，這種混合 - 這會影響你的組合嗎？

Is that a positive or a negative?

這是積極的還是消極的？

Well, insofar as you can over time establish a stronger brand, and then have it move up a bit in pricing, it can be more helpful.

好吧，只要你能隨著時間的推移建立一個更強大的品牌，然後讓它的價格上漲一點，它就會更有幫助。

A lot of the smaller local brands tend to be at lower price points.

許多較小的本地品牌往往價格較低。

So over time, if you can establish a Chesterfield or a Philip Morris in the market, you can move it up off the bottom of the pricing and get it, delivering a bit more benefit from a mix perspective.

所以隨著時間的推移，如果你能在市場上建立一個切斯特菲爾德或菲利普莫里斯，你就可以將它從定價的底部上移並獲得它，從混合的角度提供更多的好處。

Okay.

好的。

And then I'm curious if you can say, how many markets do you expect for IQOS for the -- to be in for the year?

然後我很好奇你是否可以說，你預計 IQOS 今年有多少市場？

Is that kind of continuing to increase overall?

這種總體上是在持續增加嗎？

I think you may have 43 before -- 42, 43 before?

我想你之前可能有 43 次——42 次、43 次之前？

Right now, we have lots of room to grow within the markets where we're already launched.

目前，我們在已經推出的市場中有很大的發展空間。

In almost all the markets, except for a handful, we still are not completely national.

在幾乎所有市場中，除了少數幾個，我們仍然不完全是全國性的。

We're focused more on bigger cities and on areas that are a good place to start, but we have opportunities to spread geographically.

我們更關注大城市和適合開始的地區，但我們有機會在地理上傳播。

A good example of that is Russia, where we've seen tremendous success in the cities where we've launched.

一個很好的例子是俄羅斯，我們在我們推出的城市中看到了巨大的成功。

But it's only representing 20% of the volume.

但它只佔總量的 20%。

So nationwide, we're at a little over 1% market share, 1.1%.

所以在全國范圍內，我們的市場份額略高於 1%，即 1.1%。

But obviously, in the focus areas where we launched, we're much higher than that.

但顯然，在我們推出的重點領域，我們要高得多。

So we have plenty of room to grow in a lot of the markets where we've already launched.

因此，在我們已經推出的許多市場中，我們有足夠的增長空間。

Now we do, periodically, add additional markets as it makes sense.

現在，我們確實會定期添加其他有意義的市場。

Sometimes, that's because either the tax or the regulatory environment has finally gotten to where it supports this product, and we want to lock it in and go ahead and launch and get things going there.

有時，這是因為稅收或監管環境最終達到了支持該產品的程度，我們希望將其鎖定並繼續推出並讓事情順利進行。

That's in some cases.

在某些情況下是這樣。

In other cases, there are just markets we want to get going with because we think they show great promise.

在其他情況下，只有一些市場是我們想要進入的，因為我們認為它們顯示出巨大的潛力。

Now over the 3-year period, a longer period, then we would obviously have more markets than that.

現在，在 3 年的時間裡，更長的時間裡，我們顯然會擁有比這更多的市場。

I'm talking about more the shorter-term period.

我說的是更短期的。

So you'll see the markets probably creep up a bit in the next 6 to 12 months, but I don't think we'll be adding a large number of markets in that time period.

所以你會看到市場在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內可能會有所上升，但我認為我們不會在這段時間內增加大量市場。

Now if you go further out, of course, we would like to get to some of the other big markets that we haven't addressed yet.

現在，如果你走得更遠，當然，我們想進入我們尚未解決的其他一些大市場。

Okay.

好的。

I had just one quick follow-up, which is on -- at the Investor Day, you showed a chart of an increase in shipments of -- I'm sorry, increase in sales of devices in July and August in Japan and that was a bit of a resurgence there of device sales.

我只有一個快速的跟進，那就是——在投資者日，你展示了一張圖表，顯示出貨量增加——對不起，日本 7 月和 8 月設備銷量的增加，那是那裡的設備銷售有點復甦。

Is that -- and we saw a little bit of an increase, at least sequentially from the data you gave at Investor Day in Japan HeatStick market share.

是嗎——我們看到了一點點增長，至少從你在日本 HeatStick 市場份額投資者日提供的數據來看是這樣。

Should we expect those devices to contribute to HeatStick volume in Japan?

我們是否應該期望這些設備為日本的 HeatStick 銷量做出貢獻？

Is that -- do we see some of that already in, if you will, September for the quarter?

那是——如果你願意的話，我們是否已經在本季度的 9 月份看到了其中的一些內容？

And is that starting to increase a bit as you sell more devices there?

隨著您在那裡銷售更多設備，這種情況會開始增加嗎？

Well, obviously, we're focused on converting smokers into the category.

好吧，很明顯，我們專注於將吸煙者轉變為這一類別。

In Japan, the category is still growing.

在日本，這一類別仍在增長。

We've added -- the whole heat-not-burn category has added well over 1 million new consumers over the course of the year, and we're the biggest player in that.

我們已經添加——整個加熱不燃燒類別在這一年中增加了超過 100 萬新消費者，我們是其中最大的參與者。

We're getting a very good proportion of that.

我們得到了很大一部分。

So you need devices to continue to do that.

所以你需要設備來繼續這樣做。

We are selling devices to consumers as we convert them at a nice clip in Japan.

我們正在向消費者銷售設備，因為我們在日本以不錯的速度轉換它們。

You also, though, have replacement devices.

不過，您也有替換設備。

And, particularly in markets like Japan, it's been already out there for a couple of years.

而且，特別是在日本這樣的市場，它已經上市幾年了。

You have consumers that want to replace their device.

您有想要更換設備的消費者。

They want a second device.

他們想要第二個設備。

When it comes to 3 and 3 MULTI, we could very well see consumers buy this as an additional device, not just for new consumers.

談到 3 和 3 MULTI，我們很可能會看到消費者將其作為附加設備購買，而不僅僅是為新消費者購買。

We would expect quite a few of the existing consumers to be interested in the MULTI, for example.

例如，我們預計現有消費者中有相當一部分會對 MULTI 感興趣。

So yes, we see good trends on device sales since we communicated, I think, in May that was sort of the lower point.

所以是的，自從我們在 5 月份進行溝通以來，我們看到了設備銷售的良好趨勢，那是最低點。

We've seen some nice recovery since then.

從那以後，我們看到了一些不錯的複蘇。

Some of that is holders as well because we've been selling holders as well as the complete device.

其中一些也是支架，因為我們一直在銷售支架和完整的設備。

So I think we see a pretty good base and trend for optimism in Japan.

因此，我認為我們在日本看到了相當好的樂觀情緒基礎和趨勢。

As far as the volume and share, it's stable, right?

至於體量和份額，是穩定的吧？

It's not showing a big uptick.

它並沒有顯示出很大的上漲。

But we do expect these programs in the fourth quarter to start having the intended effect and our growth to be more occurring in 2019.

但我們確實希望這些計劃在第四季度開始產生預期效果，我們的增長將在 2019 年更多地發生。

We're very optimistic about what's coming in Japan.

我們對日本即將發生的事情非常樂觀。

Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

I just wanted to follow up a little bit more on Japan.

我只是想跟進更多關於日本的事情。

And I was hoping you can elaborate on the competitive dynamics there in heat-not-burn, given some recent competitor product introductions over the last several months and competitors' distribution expansion efforts over the last quarter.

鑑於過去幾個月最近推出的一些競爭對手產品以及競爭對手在上個季度的分銷擴張努力，我希望你能詳細說明加熱不燃燒的競爭動態。

Yes.

是的。

It's nothing really new.

這並不是什麼新鮮事。

We've been talking about the competitors that have expanded their distribution, and they've obviously benefited from that.

我們一直在談論擴大分銷的競爭對手，他們顯然從中受益。

There were some supply constraints, especially on the part of -- with Japan Tobacco earlier in the year.

有一些供應限制，尤其是今年早些時候與日本煙草有關的部分。

So they've been gradually able to expand over the course of the year.

因此，他們在這一年中逐漸能夠擴展。

We've shown before the places where the competitors have been the longest.

我們已經展示了競爭對手最長的地方。

In other words, where the churn has had some time to settle a bit.

換句話說，客戶流失有一些時間可以解決。

And you see there our share in places like Tokyo and Sendai and Fukuoka has been encouraging.

你可以看到我們在東京、仙台和福岡等地的份額令人鼓舞。

And that trend is not any different.

這種趨勢也沒有什麼不同。

It continues.

它繼續。

So it's really not new news on that front.

所以這真的不是這方面的新消息。

We do see that consumers' conversion rates to our product are very good and better than the competition, and we do see that the product appreciation's higher.

我們確實看到消費者對我們產品的轉化率非常好，比競爭對手更好，我們確實看到產品增值更高。

We have had the issue of reliability on our devices, which is much improved now.

我們的設備存在可靠性問題，現在已經有了很大改善。

We showed at Investor Day the more recent production batches of the 2.4-plus have been increasingly more reliable and robust and much lower return rates.

我們在投資者日展示了最近生產批次的 2.4-plus 越來越可靠和穩健，回報率也低得多。

That continues.

那繼續。

And we believe that 3 and 3 MULTI are very well-executed devices and will be able to help us in the competition with consumers.

我們相信 3 和 3 MULTI 是性能非常出色的設備，將能夠幫助我們與消費者競爭。

And so we're really encouraged.

所以我們真的很受鼓舞。

In fact, from the point of view of competition, it's actually good for the category for competitors to come with better products and have overall category grow faster.

事實上，從競爭的角度來看，競爭對手帶來更好的產品，整體品類增長更快，其實對品類是有好處的。

So we think we're in pretty good spot.

所以我們認為我們處於非常好的位置。

We have great innovation machine that we showed at Investor Day to keep us ahead of the competition, and that's where we intend to stay.

我們在投資者日展示了偉大的創新機器，讓我們在競爭中保持領先地位，這就是我們打算留下來的地方。

But we are not complacent about it.

但我們並不因此而自滿。

We're working hard on it.

我們正在努力。

And just a question about the upcoming FDA PMTA meeting next week.

只是關於下週即將舉行的 FDA PMTA 會議的問題。

What are your expectations for that meeting?

您對該次會議有何期待？

And do you think that there might be any clarity on IQOS coming out of it?

你認為 IQOS 可能會因此而變得清晰嗎？

Look, I don't have any new information with regard to the FDA from what we communicated at Investor Day.

看，我們在投資者日交流的內容中沒有關於 FDA 的任何新信息。

We're hopeful to hear from the FDA, but it's really in their hands.

我們希望聽到 FDA 的消息，但它確實掌握在他們手中。

And I don't know that we're anticipating any particular meeting that's going to be the big breakthrough.

而且我不知道我們是否期待任何將成為重大突破的特定會議。

So there's really nothing new from what we communicated there.

所以我們在那裡交流的內容真的沒有什麼新鮮事。

And ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one more question.

女士們先生們，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will come from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Adam Spielman。

A follow-up question.

後續問題。

One of the things that struck me in your presentation was the pricing variance in combustibles in the EU of 8%.

在您的演講中讓我印象深刻的一件事是歐盟 8% 的可燃物定價差異。

I was just wondering if you could say where that came from in terms of geographies, is that sort of Germany mainly?

我只是想知道你是否可以從地理方面說出它來自哪裡，主要是那種德國嗎？

And in particular, what's happening to France?

尤其是，法國發生了什麼事？

Because that had negative variance, as I believe anyway, at the beginning of this year.

因為無論如何，在今年年初，我相信這是負方差。

Yes.

是的。

Germany is the biggest driver in EU pricing, and there's no new news on France.

德國是歐盟定價的最大驅動力，法國沒有新消息。

We still have the situation there of expected higher pack prices going forward that the government has communicated.

我們仍然有政府已經傳達的預期更高的包裝價格的情況。

And the pricing efficiency is not very good there because of the structure of the tax.

由於稅收結構，那裡的定價效率不是很好。

So the overall pricing headwind that we have in France is still more or less what it was before.

因此，我們在法國遇到的整體定價逆風或多或少與以前一樣。

And if you had to mention after Germany, the sort of next 2 biggest contributors?

如果您必須在德國之後提到下兩個最大的貢獻者？

Next 2 after Germany?

德國之後的下一個 2？

Well, worldwide, it would be like Philippines and some of the other ones.

好吧，在世界範圍內，就像菲律賓和其他一些國家一樣。

Within EU, Germany's the biggest one.

在歐盟內部，德國是最大的。

But we have pricing across the EU.

但我們在整個歐盟都有定價。

I mean, in Poland, in Italy, there's pricing across the EU.

我的意思是，在波蘭，在意大利，整個歐盟都有定價。

It's really hard to flag any one market that's driving it other than Germany being the biggest one.

除了德國是最大的市場之外，很難標記出任何一個推動它的市場。

And that was our final question.

這是我們的最後一個問題。

I'll turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

我將把發言權交還給管理層，聽取任何補充意見或結束意見。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to close with a couple of the key messages that we ended with at Investor Day.

我只想以我們在投資者日結束時傳達的幾個關鍵信息作為結束。

It starts with our commitment to the successful transformation to a smoke-free future.

它始於我們對成功轉型為無菸未來的承諾。

We think it's good for smokers, in particular, but also very good for shareholders.

我們認為這對吸煙者尤其有利，對股東也非常有利。

I think you've seen that the efforts are starting to bear fruit in the volume numbers.

我想你已經看到這些努力開始在數量上取得成果。

The share numbers for this quarter gives us good momentum going forward.

本季度的份額數據為我們提供了良好的前進勢頭。

It's built on that strong combustible tobacco business, which forms that foundation, and a way for us to fund the transformation and get to a better place for shareholders.

它建立在強大的可燃煙草業務之上，它構成了這個基礎，也是我們為轉型提供資金並為股東爭取更好地位的一種方式。

Very promising growth in RRPs across the geographies you heard about.

您聽說過的各個地區的 RRP 增長都非常有希望。

We've got the innovation machine behind all this to try to stay ahead of it.

我們擁有這一切背後的創新機器，試圖保持領先地位。

And all of it supports the achievable 3-year currency-neutral compound annual growth targets that we communicated at Investor Day around at least 5% for net revenues, x currency, and at least 8% for the adjusted diluted EPS.

所有這些都支持我們在投資者日傳達的可實現的 3 年貨幣中性複合年增長目標，淨收入至少 5%，x 貨幣，調整後攤薄每股收益至少 8%。

So I think our business is in good shape.

所以我認為我們的業務狀況良好。

We're showing good momentum, and we're looking forward to reporting the results going forward.

我們表現出良好的勢頭，我們期待著報告未來的結果。

Thanks very much, everybody, for being on the call.

非常感謝大家接聽電話。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。