菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Philip Morris International Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2018 年第二季度收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us.

歡迎，並感謝您加入我們。

Earlier today, we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2018 second quarter results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們 2018 年第二季度業績的詳細信息。

You may access the release on www.pmi.com or the PMI Investor Relations app.

您可以在 www.pmi.com 或 PMI Investor Relations 應用程序上訪問新聞稿。

A glossary of terms, including the definition for reduced-risk products, or RRPs, as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

術語表，包括降低風險產品或 RRP 的定義，以及調整、其他計算和與最直接可比的美國 GAAP 措施的對賬，位於今天網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾，這些幻燈片已發佈在我們的網站上。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results, and I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測，請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測產生重大差異的各種因素或前瞻性陳述。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Martin King, our Chief Financial Officer.

現在我很高興介紹我們的首席財務官 Martin King。

Martin?

馬丁？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝尼克，歡迎女士們先生們。

I will open with some brief remarks on how we currently see our business halfway through the year.

我將以一些簡短的評論作為開場白，說明我們目前如何看待我們今年中旬的業務。

For our combustible tobacco portfolio, the fundamentals are robust, reflecting a strong pricing environment and improving volume trends.

對於我們的可燃煙草產品組合，基本面強勁，反映出強勁的定價環境和不斷改善的銷量趨勢。

This is a very positive sign given that the majority of our profits and cash flow continues to be generated by combustible tobacco products.

這是一個非常積極的跡象，因為我們的大部分利潤和現金流繼續由可燃煙草產品產生。

With regard to IQOS, we are tracking below our very high initial expectations for this year, primarily due to the current growth trajectory in Japan.

關於 IQOS，我們對今年的初步預期低於我們非常高的預期，這主要是由於日本目前的增長軌跡。

However, the year-on-year performance across geographies remains very strong, and we continue to view RRPs as our largest growth opportunity going forward.

然而，各地區的同比表現仍然非常強勁，我們繼續將 RRP 視為我們未來最大的增長機會。

As André explained during the Annual Shareholders' Meeting in May, RRPs will experience periods of acceleration and periods of slower growth as they expand.

正如 André 在 5 月份的年度股東大會上解釋的那樣，RRP 在擴張過程中將經歷加速期和增長放緩期。

The related timing is very hard to predict precisely, especially at this initial stage.

相關時間很難準確預測，尤其是在這個初始階段。

This is the case with virtually every new product category, and IQOS will invariably go through these phases.

幾乎每一個新產品類別都是如此，而 IQOS 將不可避免地經歷這些階段。

What is certain, in our view, is that adult smokers worldwide are looking for better alternatives to smoking.

在我們看來，可以肯定的是，全世界的成年吸煙者正在尋找更好的吸煙替代品。

We believe that IQOS is the best alternative on the market today, as evidenced by the fact that an estimated 5.6 million adult consumers around the world have already stopped smoking and switched to IQOS.

我們相信 IQOS 是當今市場上最好的替代品，據估計全球有 560 萬成年消費者已經戒菸並改用 IQOS 就證明了這一點。

Let me now take you through our second quarter results, beginning with total shipment volume, that is cigarettes and heated tobacco units combined, which increased by 0.9% or by 0.6%, excluding inventory movements.

現在讓我向您介紹我們第二季度的業績，首先是總出貨量，即香煙和加熱煙草單位的總和，增長了 0.9% 或 0.6%，不包括庫存變動。

This growth was driven by higher heated tobacco unit volume across IQOS launch markets, led by Japan and Korea, partly offset by a 1.5% decline in cigarette volume, which includes the growing impact of adult smoker out-switching to our heated tobacco products.

這一增長是由 IQOS 發射市場的加熱煙草單位銷量增加推動的，以日本和韓國為首，部分被捲煙銷量下降 1.5% 所抵消，其中包括成年吸煙者轉向我們的加熱煙草產品的影響越來越大。

Importantly, heated tobacco unit volume growth in the quarter was relatively balanced, with about half coming from outside the East Asia and Australia region.

重要的是，本季度加熱煙草的單位銷量增長相對平衡，其中約一半來自東亞和澳大利亞地區以外的地區。

This illustrates the broad-based progress of IQOS across geographies.

這說明了 IQOS 在各個地區取得的廣泛進展。

For the first half of the year, total shipment volume declined by 0.6% and was essentially flat, excluding inventory movements.

今年上半年，總出貨量下降 0.6%，基本持平，不包括庫存變動。

Our cigarette volume decline in the quarter was due notably to Russia, mainly reflecting the impact of price increases and higher illicit trade; and Saudi Arabia, primarily due to the impact of tax-driven price increases following the June 2017 excise tax introduction.

我們本季度的捲煙銷量下降主要是由於俄羅斯，主要反映了價格上漲和非法貿易增加的影響；和沙特阿拉伯，主要是由於 2017 年 6 月引入消費稅後稅收驅動的價格上漲的影響。

The decline was partly offset by growth in a number of markets, most notably Pakistan and Turkey, primarily reflecting higher industry volume.

這一下降部分被一些市場的增長所抵消，尤其是巴基斯坦和土耳其，這主要反映了行業銷量的增加。

We also recorded cigarette volume growth in important geographies such as Indonesia, North Africa and the Philippines.

我們還記錄了印度尼西亞、北非和菲律賓等重要地區的捲煙銷量增長。

On a sequential basis, our cigarette volume performance in the quarter marked a significant improvement compared to the 5.3% decline of the first quarter.

從環比來看，與第一季度 5.3% 的下降相比，我們本季度的捲煙銷量表現有了顯著改善。

Turning to our second quarter financial results.

轉向我們的第二季度財務業績。

Net revenues increased by 8.3%, excluding currency, driven by strong pricing for our combustible tobacco portfolio and higher volume of IQOS devices and heated tobacco units.

淨收入增長了 8.3%，不包括貨幣在內，這得益於我們的可燃煙草產品組合的強勁定價以及 IQOS 設備和加熱煙草裝置的銷量增加。

Our pricing variance for combustible products in the quarter was more than 8% of second quarter 2017 combustible product net revenues, driven by Argentina, Canada, Germany, Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia.

在阿根廷、加拿大、德國、印度尼西亞、菲律賓和俄羅斯的推動下，我們本季度可燃產品的定價差異超過 2017 年第二季度可燃產品淨收入的 8%。

Year-to-date June, our combustible pricing variance was 7.5%.

今年 6 月至今，我們的可燃物定價差異為 7.5%。

Adjusted operating income increased by 9.8%, excluding currency, reflecting the growth in net revenues, coupled with lower manufacturing costs in the East Asia and Australia region, partly offset by incremental RRP investments in all IQOS launch markets.

調整後營業收入增長 9.8%，不包括貨幣在內，反映了淨收入的增長，以及東亞和澳大利亞地區製造成本的降低，部分被所有 IQOS 發布市場的 RRP 投資增量所抵消。

Adjusted operating income margin increased by 0.5 points, excluding currency.

調整後的營業收入利潤率增加了 0.5 個百分點，不包括貨幣。

Currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS increased by 20.2% in the quarter and benefited from a lower estimated full year effective tax rate as well as lower interest expense.

本季度貨幣中性調整後攤薄每股收益增長 20.2%，受益於較低的全年有效稅率估計以及較低的利息支出。

Our effective tax rate in the quarter was approximately 22%, reflects the impact of a revised full year effective tax rate estimate of approximately 24%.

我們本季度的有效稅率約為 22%，反映了修訂後的全年有效稅率估計約為 24% 的影響。

The reduction compared to our prior full year estimate of approximately 26% is mainly attributed to further analysis, interpretation and clarification of the scope and impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the United States.

與我們之前的全年估計相比減少約 26%，這主要歸因於對美國 2017 年減稅和就業法案的範圍和影響的進一步分析、解釋和澄清。

Our lower interest expense in the quarter primarily reflects the impact of our ongoing efforts to optimize our capital structure following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

我們本季度較低的利息支出主要反映了我們在《減稅和就業法》通過後不斷努力優化資本結構的影響。

This included the decision to use existing cash to repay the principal of our recently matured May 2018 10-year U.S. bond, which had a coupon of 5.65%.

這包括決定使用現有現金償還我們最近到期的 2018 年 5 月 10 年期美國債券的本金，該債券的息票率為 5.65%。

Our total international market share, excluding China and the U.S., increased by 0.8 points in the quarter to 28.4%.

我們的國際市場總份額（不包括中國和美國）在本季度增長了 0.8 個百分點，達到 28.4%。

The growth was driven by our heated tobacco brands, which reached 1.6%, up by 0.9 points.

這一增長是由我們的加熱煙草品牌推動的，該品牌增長了 0.9 個百分點，達到 1.6%。

To put this performance into perspective, our heated tobacco brands now enjoy an international market share equivalent to that of Philip Morris, our fourth-largest international cigarette brand, after just over 2 years since the initial IQOS commercial expansion in Japan.

從這一表現來看，我們的加熱煙草品牌現在享有的國際市場份額相當於我們第四大國際捲菸品牌菲利普莫里斯，自 IQOS 最初在日本進行商業擴張後僅僅兩年多。

Despite the increasing impact of adult smoker out-switching to our heated tobacco products, share for our cigarette brands was stable at 26.9%.

儘管成年吸煙者轉而使用我們的加熱煙草產品的影響越來越大，但我們捲菸品牌的份額穩定在 26.9%。

I will now cover our performance in select geographies, beginning with an update for 2 markets, Russia and Saudi Arabia, that we flagged previously as potential watchouts.

我現在將介紹我們在特定地區的表現，首先是俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯這兩個我們之前標記為潛在關注點的市場的更新。

In Russia, we recorded a strong pricing variance in the quarter, mainly driven by the annualization of pricing announced in the second half of 2017 and further supported by price increases earlier this year.

在俄羅斯，我們在本季度記錄了強烈的定價差異，這主要是由於 2017 年下半年宣布的定價年化以及今年早些時候價格上漲的進一步支持。

This built on our favorable pricing variance in the first quarter and is a welcome change from 2017, during which we recorded essentially no net pricing in the market.

這是基於我們在第一季度的有利定價差異，是自 2017 年以來的一個可喜變化，在此期間我們在市場上基本上沒有記錄淨定價。

Pricing in Russia was the main driver of the Eastern Europe region's 14.7% combustible pricing variance for the year-to-date June period.

俄羅斯的定價是東歐地區今年迄今 6 月期間 14.7% 可燃物定價差異的主要驅動因素。

We continue to closely monitor the pricing environment in the market, particularly in the context of the excise tax increase that came into effect at the start of this month.

我們繼續密切關注市場定價環境，尤其是在本月初生效的消費稅上調的背景下。

Encouragingly, since June, the industry has been progressively announcing price increases in line with the tax increase pass-on of RUB 5 per pack.

令人鼓舞的是，自 6 月以來，該行業一直在逐步宣布價格上漲，以配合每包 5 盧布的增稅轉嫁。

It's important to note, however, that there continue to be differences in timing between when price increases are announced and when they actually reach the consumer at retail.

然而，值得注意的是，宣布漲價的時間與實際到達零售消費者手中的時間仍然存在差異。

Separately, I would like to highlight the favorable IQOS momentum in Russia with HEETS offtake share in Moscow of 4.4% in the quarter, up by 1.7 points sequentially versus the first quarter.

另外，我想強調 IQOS 在俄羅斯的有利勢頭，本季度 HEETS 在莫斯科的承購份額為 4.4%，比第一季度連續增長 1.7 個百分點。

This growth was supported by the successful rollout of our new digital initiatives.

這一增長得益於我們新數字計劃的成功推出。

In Saudi Arabia, cigarette industry volumes and PM in-market sales volume remained under pressure in the quarter, declining by about 24% and 40%, respectively.

在沙特阿拉伯，捲菸行業銷量和 PM 市場銷量在本季度仍然面臨壓力，分別下降了約 24% 和 40%。

However, the declines in both cases improved on a sequential basis as the excise tax-driven price increases from June 2017 were finally lapped during the quarter.

然而，隨著 2017 年 6 月以來消費稅驅動的價格上漲最終在本季度結束，這兩種情況的降幅環比有所改善。

We expect continued improvement in the sequential trends for both industry volume and our in-market sales over the balance of the year.

我們預計在今年餘下的時間裡，行業銷量和我們的市場銷售額的連續趨勢將繼續改善。

Importantly, we will enter 2019 with this major drag on our profitability behind us.

重要的是，進入 2019 年，我們的盈利能力將受到重大拖累。

These positive developments are being reinforced by strong cigarette portfolio performances in a number of key markets such as Germany, Indonesia, the Philippines and Turkey, as highlighted on this slide.

正如這張幻燈片所強調的那樣，德國、印度尼西亞、菲律賓和土耳其等一些主要市場的捲煙產品組合表現強勁，進一步加強了這些積極的發展。

Turning now to IQOS in Japan.

現在轉向日本的 IQOS。

We recorded HeatSticks market share of 15.5% in the quarter, an increase of 5.5 points compared to the second quarter of 2017.

我們在本季度記錄的 HeatSticks 市場份額為 15.5%，與 2017 年第二季度相比增長了 5.5 個百分點。

While share for HeatSticks declined by 0.3 points compared to the first quarter of 2018, let me remind you that our first quarter share was favorably impacted by a low total market in January, reflecting a cigarette inventory reduction by our main competitor.

雖然 HeatSticks 的份額與 2018 年第一季度相比下降了 0.3 個百分點，但讓我提醒您，我們第一季度的份額受到 1 月份總市場低迷的有利影響，反映出我們的主要競爭對手減少了香煙庫存。

In fact, in-market sales of HeatSticks in the second quarter increased by over 5% versus the first quarter to 6.6 billion units.

事實上，第二季度 HeatSticks 的市場銷量比第一季度增長了 5% 以上，達到 66 億台。

We remain focused on reaccelerating HeatSticks' share growth, particularly as competitors expand the availability of their heated tobacco products.

我們仍然專注於重新加速 HeatSticks 的份額增長，特別是在競爭對手擴大其加熱煙草產品的可用性時。

In this regard, we're rolling out a range of initiatives this year, which do not require incremental marketing expenditures to drive further switching to IQOS, including: the introduction of the next generation of IQOS devices, which will further -- which will offer significant improvements that address key consumer needs, including consecutive use; the planned launch of a stronger-tasting HeatSticks variant in order to facilitate full flavor adult smoker switching as well as a mainstream price product for more price-sensitive consumers; the simplification of the registration process for new users, which was a significant barrier to entry, particularly for older smokers; the intensification of our loyalty programs and deployment of more targeted and relevant communications for our existing and prospective IQOS users; and the already-addressed device reliability issues in the current generation of IQOS that had caused frustration among certain consumers.

在這方面，我們今年推出了一系列舉措，不需要增加營銷支出來推動進一步轉向 IQOS，包括：推出下一代 IQOS 設備，這將進一步——將提供滿足關鍵消費者需求的重大改進，包括連續使用；計劃推出口味更濃的 HeatSticks 變體，以促進全口味成年吸煙者轉換，並為對價格更敏感的消費者提供主流價格產品；簡化新用戶的註冊過程，這是一個很大的進入障礙，尤其是對老年吸煙者而言；加強我們的忠誠度計劃，並為我們現有和潛在的 IQOS 用戶部署更有針對性和相關的通信；以及當前這一代 IQOS 中已經解決的設備可靠性問題，這些問題在某些消費者中引起了挫敗感。

We conservatively assume today that these initiatives will have a limited favorable impact this year, with the full favorable effect coming as of the beginning of 2019.

我們今天保守地假設，這些舉措今年將產生有限的有利影響，2019 年初將產生全面的有利影響。

We continue to observe strong consumer interest in the heated tobacco category.

我們繼續觀察到消費者對加熱煙草類別的濃厚興趣。

As of June 2018, we estimated 34.7% of adult tobacco users in Japan had used a heated tobacco product in the preceding 7 days, an increase of over 2 points since March.

截至 2018 年 6 月，我們估計 34.7% 的日本成年煙草使用者在過去 7 天內使用過加熱煙草產品，比 3 月份增加了 2 個百分點。

This equates to around 150,000 additional users per month over the period.

這相當於在此期間每月增加約 150,000 名用戶。

It is important to highlight that this general growth dynamic has not changed as a result of the presence of competitive products.

需要強調的是，這種總體增長動力並沒有因為競爭產品的出現而改變。

However, there are different patterns of full adoption, depending on the product, with IQOS having the highest exclusive use and per device heated tobacco unit consumption.

然而，根據產品的不同，完全採用的模式也不同，IQOS 的獨家使用和每台設備加熱煙草的單位消耗量最高。

Other products appear to dilute the correlation between the number of users and the category share.

其他產品似乎淡化了用戶數量和品類份額之間的相關性。

Thus, the heated tobacco category's consumption share of total tobacco volume, which reached around 21% in June, is lagging behind general heated tobacco user share.

因此，加熱煙草類別在煙草總量中的消費份額在 6 月份達到了 21% 左右，落後於一般加熱煙草用戶的份額。

As the latter reflects an expression of interest in heated tobacco products and the potential for further conversion going forward, this augurs well for both the category and IQOS.

由於後者反映了人們對加熱煙草產品的興趣以及未來進一步轉化的潛力，這對該類別和 IQOS 來說都是個好兆頭。

We have previously highlighted the role the competitive churn associated with the introduction of new heated tobacco products to the market is having in Japan.

我們之前強調了與向市場推出新的加熱煙草產品相關的競爭性流失在日本的作用。

In general, competitive products have the greatest impact following the initial launch but critically (technical difficulty) over time as consumers recognize the benefits of IQOS.

一般來說，競爭產品在首次推出後影響最大，但隨著時間的推移，隨著消費者認識到 IQOS 的好處，競爭產品的影響將變得至關重要（技術難度）。

Given the geographic expansion of competitive products in recent periods and the related impact that this has on the national share for HeatSticks, it is helpful to look at specific geographies within Japan to help gauge better the impact of competitive introductions and the related churn on IQOS's performance over time.

鑑於近期競爭產品的地域擴張及其對 HeatSticks 全國份額的相關影響，查看日本境內的特定地區有助於更好地衡量競爭產品的影響以及相關的客戶流失對 IQOS 性能的影響隨著時間的推移。

This slide shows heated tobacco unit offtake share trends in Fukuoka, Sendai and Tokyo, 3 geographies where multiple heated tobacco products had been available the longest.

這張幻燈片顯示了福岡、仙台和東京這 3 個地區的加熱煙草產品銷售份額趨勢，這三個地區的多種加熱煙草產品供應時間最長。

As all 3 geographies illustrate, the longer the competitive products are in the market, the better IQOS performs.

正如所有 3 個地區所表明的那樣，競爭產品在市場上的時間越長，IQOS 的性能就越好。

Importantly, IQOS remains the heated tobacco proposition with the highest full conversion rate, which drives recurring HeatSticks purchase and therefore, revenue.

重要的是，IQOS 仍然是具有最高完全轉化率的加熱煙草產品，這推動了 HeatSticks 的經常性購買，因此也推動了收入。

In Korea, HEETS' market share reached 8% in the second quarter, an increase of 7.8 points versus the prior year period and 0.7 points sequentially.

在韓國，HEETS 第二季度的市場份額達到 8%，比去年同期增長 7.8 個百分點，環比增長 0.7 個百分點。

Over the past few months, there regrettably has been confusion among adult consumers with regard to heated tobacco category.

令人遺憾的是，在過去幾個月裡，成年消費者對加熱煙草的類別一直感到困惑。

This stems primarily from government discussions on graphic health warnings for heated tobacco products as well as the Korean FDA's mischaracterization of the tar generated by such products, which we have vigorously refuted through compelling scientific evidence publicly and by directly informing our IQOS users.

這主要源於政府對加熱煙草產品的圖形健康警告的討論，以及韓國 FDA 對此類產品產生的焦油的錯誤描述，我們通過公開的令人信服的科學證據和直接通知我們的 IQOS 用戶來大力反駁。

Unfortunately, the KFDA has risked confusing millions of people into thinking that heated tobacco products are as harmful as cigarettes, contradicting its own scientific findings.

不幸的是，KFDA 冒著讓數百萬人誤以為加熱煙草產品與香煙一樣有害的風險，這與其自己的科學發現相矛盾。

In spite of this, our existing user base is staying with IQOS, demonstrating consumer confidence in the product and its benefits based on personal experience.

儘管如此，我們現有的用戶群仍在使用 IQOS，這表明消費者對產品的信心及其基於個人體驗的優勢。

We have comprehensive plans in place to ensure that the confusion dissipates so that the many adult smokers who are understandably hesitant at this time will resume switching from cigarettes to the heated tobacco category.

我們制定了全面的計劃來確保消除混亂，以便可以理解，此時猶豫不決的許多成年吸煙者將恢復從捲菸轉向加熱煙草類別。

In the EU Region, IQOS continues its steady growth.

在歐盟地區，IQOS 繼續穩步增長。

HEETS reached a regional share of 1% in the quarter, up by 0.8 points compared to the second quarter of 2017.

HEETS 在本季度的區域份額達到 1%，與 2017 年第二季度相比上升了 0.8 個百分點。

This growth was supported by strong performances across IQOS launch markets, most notably Greece and Italy, where HEETS shares have increased by 3.1 points to 4.1% and by 1.3 points to 1.9%, respectively.

這一增長得到了 IQOS 發布市場強勁表現的支持，尤其是希臘和意大利，HEETS 的份額分別增長了 3.1 個百分點至 4.1% 和 1.3 個百分點至 1.9%。

As the marketing focus behind IQOS continues to be limited to select geographies within EU launch markets, the regional share, not to mention the national share for any specific market, clearly understates the success of IQOS.

由於 IQOS 背後的營銷重點繼續局限於歐盟推出市場中的特定地區，因此區域份額，更不用說任何特定市場的國家份額，顯然低估了 IQOS 的成功。

It is also important to monitor the number of IQOS users, which serves as a leading indicator of heated tobacco unit consumption.

監測 IQOS 用戶數量也很重要，它是加熱煙草單位消費量的領先指標。

Over the past 12 months, the estimated figure in the EU region has increased by more than fourfold to approximately 1.2 million.

在過去 12 個月中，歐盟地區的估計數字增加了四倍多，達到約 120 萬。

Importantly, we have maintained the overall level of quality of the IQOS user base, as demonstrated by full and predominant conversion rates, while growing the number of users substantially.

重要的是，我們保持了 IQOS 用戶群的整體質量水平，正如完全和主要的轉化率所證明的那樣，同時大幅增加了用戶數量。

We've also been able to increase the user registration rate, which now stands at over 80%.

我們還提高了用戶註冊率，目前已超過 80%。

User registration is very important as it enables us to follow and better service new IQOS users during their initial conversion journey while also increasing the loyalty and retention of the existing IQOS users.

用戶註冊非常重要，因為它使我們能夠在新 IQOS 用戶的初始轉化過程中關注並更好地為他們提供服務，同時還可以提高現有 IQOS 用戶的忠誠度和保留率。

Turning to our full year 2018 outlook.

轉向我們的 2018 年全年展望。

We continue to anticipate a total industry volume decline of 2% to 3%, excluding China and the U.S. Against this backdrop, we also continue to expect a decline in our total shipment volume of approximately 2%.

我們繼續預計行業總銷量下降 2% 至 3%，不包括中國和美國。在此背景下，我們也繼續預計我們的總出貨量將下降約 2%。

However, we now anticipate a change in the composition of our shipment volume, reflecting higher cigarette volume and lower heated tobacco unit volume compared to our prior forecast.

然而，我們現在預計我們的出貨量構成會發生變化，反映出與我們之前的預測相比更高的捲煙銷量和更低的加熱煙草單位銷量。

We expect a significant increase in our global heated tobacco in-market sales volume to around 44 billion to 45 billion units, including revised, more conservative assumptions regarding the impact of our product and marketing initiatives in Japan to support IQOS.

我們預計我們的全球加熱煙草市場銷量將顯著增加至約 440 億至 450 億支，其中包括關於我們在日本支持 IQOS 的產品和營銷計劃的影響的修正後的、更保守的假設。

We now target heated tobacco unit shipments of around 41 billion to 42 billion units.

我們現在的目標是加熱煙草的單位出貨量約為 410 億至 420 億支。

This excludes an anticipated full year net inventory -- this includes an anticipated full year net inventory reduction of approximately 3 billion units, reflecting an estimated 4 billion unit reduction in Japan and 1 billion unit increase in other markets.

這不包括預期的全年淨庫存——這包括預期的全年淨庫存減少約 30 億個單位，反映了日本估計減少 40 億個單位和其他市場增加 10 億個單位。

We expect the reduction in Japan to be concentrated in the third quarter.

我們預計日本的減產將集中在第三季度。

The revised shipment target represents a total net inventory adjustment swing of 5 billion units compared to our previous communication during our Annual Shareholders' Meeting in May when we had assumed a full year net inventory increase of 2 billion units.

與我們在 5 月份的年度股東大會上之前的溝通相比，修訂後的出貨目標代表了 50 億個單位的總淨庫存調整幅度，當時我們假設全年淨庫存增加 20 億個單位。

Our heated tobacco unit in-market sales volume target for this year reflects growth in the second half of approximately 60% compared to the same period in 2017 and almost 20% compared to the first 6 months of 2018.

我們今年的加熱煙草單位市場銷量目標反映了下半年與 2017 年同期相比增長約 60%，與 2018 年前 6 個月相比增長近 20%。

We now expect net revenue growth this year of 3% to 4%, excluding currency.

我們現在預計今年淨收入增長 3% 至 4%，不包括貨幣。

The revision compared to our previously disclosed estimate of approximately 8% is primarily due to lower-than-anticipated shipments of IQOS devices and heated tobacco units, predominantly in Japan; and the impact of accounting for our affiliate in Argentina as a highly inflationary -- as highly inflationary, effective July 2018, partly offset by the better-than-expected performance of our combustible tobacco portfolio.

與我們之前披露的約 8% 的估計相比，這一修正主要是由於 IQOS 設備和加熱煙草裝置的出貨量低於預期，主要是在日本；以及將我們在阿根廷的附屬公司會計為高度通貨膨脹的影響——高度通貨膨脹，自 2018 年 7 月起生效，部分被我們可燃煙草產品組合好於預期的表現所抵消。

Let me provide some additional granularity behind the revision, beginning with the devices, which account for approximately 2.5 points and mainly reflect the following: the worldwide introduction of the next generation of IQOS devices towards the end of 2018, which I touched on earlier.

讓我在修訂後提供一些額外的粒度，從設備開始，大約佔 2.5 分，主要反映以下內容：2018 年底全球推出下一代 IQOS 設備，我之前提到過。

This requires an adjustment to current-generation device inventories, while the ramp-up of new devices is expected to occur in 2019; the fact that we are reaching out to more conservative adult smokers in Japan who need more time and different communications to switch to heated tobacco as well as the assumption of continued competitive churn as consumers experiment with other heated tobacco products, thus impacting the rate of adult smoker acquisition; improved device reliability and longer life cycle, leading to fewer IQOS replacement purchases; higher sales of second IQOS holders versus relatively higher-priced full kit purchases; and the alignment of the retail selling price for all IQOS kits in Japan to the previously discounted price of approximately JPY 8,000, independent of device registration.

這需要對當前一代設備庫存進行調整，而新設備預計將在 2019 年增加；事實上，我們正在接觸日本更保守的成年吸煙者，他們需要更多時間和不同的溝通方式來改用加熱煙草，以及假設隨著消費者嘗試其他加熱煙草產品，競爭會持續流失，從而影響成人吸煙率吸煙者收購；提高了設備可靠性和更長的生命週期，從而減少了 IQOS 更換的購買；第二個 IQOS 持有者的銷售額高於相對較高價格的全套購買；日本所有 IQOS 套件的零售價與之前約 8,000 日元的折扣價保持一致，與設備註冊無關。

Given the current unit margin structure of IQOS devices, the impact of lower device sales is felt predominantly on the net revenue line with a slightly positive corresponding impact on operating income.

鑑於 IQOS 設備當前的單位利潤率結構，設備銷量下降的影響主要體現在淨收入線上，對營業收入產生略微積極的相應影響。

Heated tobacco unit shipment volume accounts for a further 2 points of the revision, mainly reflecting the anticipated full year inventory reduction mentioned previously and the slower growth of in-market sales in Japan.

加熱煙草單位出貨量又佔修訂的 2 個百分點，主要反映了前面提到的預期全年庫存減少和日本市場銷售增長放緩。

Our revised net revenue forecast is based on the conservative view of a very limited favorable impact from our initiatives in Japan in 2018.

我們修訂後的淨收入預測是基於保守觀點，即我們 2018 年在日本的舉措帶來的有利影響非常有限。

The upward revision for our combustible tobacco primarily reflects better-than-expected cigarette performance across a range of geographies, notably Germany, the Philippines and Turkey.

我們對可燃煙草的上調主要反映了一系列地區的捲煙表現好於預期，尤其是德國、菲律賓和土耳其。

We continue to anticipate a full year combustible price variance of approximately 7% of our 2017 combustible product net revenues.

我們繼續預計全年可燃物價格差異約為我們 2017 年可燃物產品淨收入的 7%。

Given our year-to-date June 2018 currency-neutral net revenue growth of 8.3%, our full year target of 3% to 4% implies a slight decline for the second half of the year on the same basis.

鑑於我們 2018 年 6 月至今的貨幣中性淨收入增長 8.3%，我們的全年目標 3% 至 4% 意味著今年下半年在相同基礎上略有下降。

This is primarily due to the challenging comparison that we face in the second half of the year related to the sizable shipments of HeatSticks that we made in 2017 as part of our planned inventory build in Japan.

這主要是由於我們在今年下半年面臨的具有挑戰性的比較與我們在 2017 年製造的大量 HeatSticks 出貨量有關，這是我們計劃在日本建立庫存的一部分。

As a reminder, in the third and fourth quarters of 2017, we recorded currency-neutral net revenue growth of around 9% and 19%, respectively.

提醒一下，在 2017 年第三和第四季度，我們的貨幣中性淨收入分別增長了約 9% 和 19%。

While the inventory build of approximately 13 billion heated tobacco units was appropriate at the time, given the then-forecasted demand, our heavy reliance on a single production center and the shift from air to sea freight, it is now resulting in lower heated tobacco unit shipments and related net revenues, especially as we adjust existing inventory levels, mainly in the third quarter.

雖然當時大約 130 億個加熱煙草單位的庫存增加是合適的，但考慮到當時預測的需求、我們對單一生產中心的嚴重依賴以及從空運到海運的轉變，現在導致較低的加熱煙草單位出貨量和相關淨收入，尤其是在我們調整現有庫存水平時，主要是在第三季度。

Consequently, we forecast net revenue growth of around 1%, excluding currency, in the third quarter and a decline of around 4% on the same basis in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預測第三季度淨收入增長約 1%，不包括貨幣在內，第四季度同比下降約 4%。

As announced this morning, we're revising our 2018 reported diluted EPS guidance at prevailing exchange rates to a range of $5.02 to $5.12.

正如今天上午宣布的那樣，我們將按現行匯率將 2018 年報告的稀釋後每股收益指引修改為 5.02 美元至 5.12 美元。

The change primarily reflects lower anticipated heated tobacco unit shipments in Japan and the unfavorable impact of currency, partly offset by a lower estimated full year effective tax rate of approximately 24%.

這一變化主要反映了日本預期的加熱煙草單位出貨量較低以及貨幣的不利影響，部分被較低的估計全年有效稅率約 24% 所抵消。

We continue to target net incremental investment behind RRPs of approximately $600 million for the full year.

我們繼續將全年的 RRP 背後的淨增量投資目標定為約 6 億美元。

Our guidance now includes $0.07 of unfavorable currency at prevailing exchange rates.

我們的指導現在包括 0.07 美元的不利貨幣（按現行匯率計算）。

Excluding currency, our guidance represents a growth rate of approximately 8% to 10% compared to our adjusted diluted EPS of $4.72 in 2017.

不計貨幣因素，我們的指引與 2017 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 4.72 美元相比，增長率約為 8% 至 10%。

The unfavorable $0.13 change in the currency impact on our guidance as compared to our previous guidance on May 9 is due notably to the Argentine peso and the Japanese yen.

與我們之前在 5 月 9 日發布的指引相比，貨幣對我們指引的不利影響為 0.13 美元，這主要是由於阿根廷比索和日元。

For the year, we are now targeting operating cash flow of approximately $9 billion, subject to currency movements and year-end working capital requirements.

今年，我們現在的目標是運營現金流量約為 90 億美元，具體取決於貨幣變動和年終營運資金需求。

We also now anticipate capital expenditures of approximately $1.5 billion compared to the $1.7 billion that we communicated in May.

我們現在還預計資本支出約為 15 億美元，而我們在 5 月份公佈的為 17 億美元。

The change primarily reflects lower planned spending on heated tobacco unit manufacturing equipment, driven by increased production efficiency and greater flexibility associated with dual production of our existing factories as well as an adjustment for the revised production forecast.

這一變化主要反映了在加熱煙草單元製造設備上的計劃支出減少，這是由於生產效率提高和與我們現有工廠的雙重生產相關的更大靈活性以及對修訂後的生產預測的調整所推動的。

In June, our board approved an increase in our quarterly dividend to an annualized rate of $4.56 per share.

6 月，我們的董事會批准將季度股息提高至每股 4.56 美元的年化股息。

This marked the 11th consecutive year in which PMI has increased its dividend, representing a total increase of 147.8% or a compounded annual growth rate of 9.5% since PMI became a publicly traded company in 2008.

這標誌著 PMI 連續第 11 年增加股息，自 2008 年 PMI 成為上市公司以來，總股息增加了 147.8%，複合年增長率為 9.5%。

The timing and magnitude of the increase reflects the board's confidence in the growth outlook for our business, underpinned by the potential of our smoke-free products and underscores the company's steadfast commitment to generously reward shareholders over time.

增加的時間和幅度反映了董事會對我們業務增長前景的信心，這得益於我們無菸產品的潛力，並強調了公司長期慷慨回報股東的堅定承諾。

In conclusion, the fundamentals supporting our combustible tobacco portfolio are robust, namely strong pricing and a moderate cigarette industry volume decline.

總之，支持我們的可燃煙草產品組合的基本面是穩健的，即強勁的定價和適度的捲煙行業銷量下降。

While we are tracking below our very high initial expectations for IQOS this year, primarily reflecting the current growth trajectory in Japan, the year-on-year performance across geographies remains very strong, and we're confident that RRPs constitute our largest growth opportunity.

雖然我們今年對 IQOS 的初步預期低於我們非常高的預期，主要反映了日本當前的增長軌跡，但各地區的同比表現仍然非常強勁，我們相信 RRP 是我們最大的增長機會。

We're implementing the right marketing and product measures to reinvigorate growth in Japan.

我們正在實施正確的營銷和產品措施，以重振日本的增長。

These initiatives, which require the rightsizing this year of our existing IQOS device and HeatSticks inventories, will position PMI well for a strong overall performance in 2019.

這些舉措要求今年對我們現有的 IQOS 設備和 HeatSticks 庫存進行合理調整，這將使 PMI 在 2019 年取得強勁的整體業績。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I'm now happy to answer your questions.

我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Vivien Azer of Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

So I appreciate all the color and your efforts to be transparent around the guide down.

所以我很欣賞所有的顏色和你在指南周圍保持透明的努力。

I'm just curious if you could just offer kind of some thoughts on why you didn't update your guidance at the AGM formally.

我只是想知道你是否可以就為什麼你沒有在 AGM 上正式更新你的指南提供一些想法。

Look, I mean, we've been assessing the whole situation.

看，我的意思是，我們一直在評估整個情況。

We have been putting the programs in place in Japan.

我們一直在日本實施這些計劃。

We gave you quite a bit of detail at the AGM on the dynamics of the consumers and some of the uncertainties involved.

我們在年度股東大會上向您詳細介紹了消費者的動態以及所涉及的一些不確定性。

And we gave some better color on the forecast for shipments.

我們對出貨量的預測給出了更好的顏色。

We decided not to give a new net revenue number because at that point in time, we were still recalculating and figuring the effects of all these pieces.

我們決定不提供新的淨收入數字，因為在那個時候，我們仍在重新計算和計算所有這些部分的影響。

But I mean, the key is we're really confident going forward in these projections.

但我的意思是，關鍵是我們真的有信心在這些預測中前進。

We've had time now to understand the consumer situation in Japan and to put together a really good plan there.

我們現在有時間了解日本的消費者狀況，並在那裡制定一個非常好的計劃。

And we have a great deal of confidence going forward that we will hit these numbers, including the shipments and IMS for the heated tobacco units.

我們對未來將達到這些數字充滿信心，包括加熱煙草裝置的出貨量和 IMS。

Okay.

好的。

Sticking with Japan then, please.

那麼請堅持日本。

With the more affordable variant, can you talk about how that will benchmark from a revenue accretion standpoint relative to some of the metrics that you guys had offered at your Shareholder Meeting in 2016?

有了更實惠的變體，你能談談從收入增長的角度來看，相對於你們在 2016 年股東大會上提供的一些指標，這將如何進行基準測試？

Yes.

是的。

I think the key point with regard to the heated tobacco unit, whether it's mainstream price or it's a premium price in Japan, is these products have better margins than the cigarettes do.

我認為關於加熱煙草產品的關鍵點，無論是主流價格還是日本的溢價，這些產品的利潤率都高於香煙。

And they're priced -- including the mainstream variant, will be priced such that it's adding quite a bit of profitability even above what we would get from a similar tobacco product.

而且它們的定價——包括主流版本，將被定價為增加相當多的盈利能力，甚至超過我們從類似煙草產品中獲得的盈利能力。

Because in Japan, for example, our portfolio on the conventional side has always included Marlboro Light, Lark and other brands.

因為以日本為例，我們在常規端的組合一直包括萬寶路淡味、百靈鳥等品牌。

So we've always had brands priced at different points within Japan.

所以我們總是讓品牌在日本的不同點定價。

And with heated tobacco units, you're going to follow a similar logic that you need more than one price point in order to reach a broader group of consumers.

對於加熱煙草產品，您將遵循類似的邏輯，即您需要多個價格點才能覆蓋更廣泛的消費者群體。

And we're still going to be, on average, above the average price in Japan.

平均而言，我們仍將高於日本的平均價格。

And we're going to be adding profitability very strongly with our RRP portfolio in Japan and everywhere else.

我們將通過我們在日本和其他地方的 RRP 產品組合非常強勁地增加盈利能力。

Okay, that's really helpful.

好的，這真的很有幫助。

One last one for me.

最後一張給我。

On South Korea, can you give us some color on how you're thinking about target market share for the full year given the deceleration and the confusion in the marketplace?

在韓國，鑑於市場減速和混亂，您能否給我們一些關於您如何考慮全年目標市場份額的顏色？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I mean, it's unfortunate that there is confusion in Korea because we've been growing tremendously well there, and we are still adding consumers in Korea.

好吧，我的意思是，不幸的是韓國存在混亂，因為我們在那裡發展得非常好，而且我們仍在增加韓國的消費者。

But unfortunately, with the confusion, we've had a pause in the rate of speed of converting people.

但不幸的是，由於混亂，我們在轉變人們的速度方面有所停頓。

We're sorting through it and getting them the right information -- the consumers the right information, which, factually, we have a very good story to tell and all the scientific backing, including coming from other government agencies.

我們正在對它進行分類，讓他們得到正確的信息——消費者得到正確的信息，事實上，我們有一個很好的故事要講，還有所有的科學支持，包括來自其他政府機構的支持。

In fact, the KFDA itself, if you read their evidence, they understand that the composition of the aerosol is much better with our products.

事實上，KFDA 本身，如果你閱讀他們的證據，他們就會明白我們的產品氣霧劑的成分要好得多。

Unfortunately, that didn't come through in their final report.

不幸的是，這並沒有出現在他們的最終報告中。

So there's some confusion, but we're clarifying it.

所以有一些混淆，但我們正在澄清它。

And we think that Korea will continue to grow.

我們認為韓國將繼續增長。

It's not as fast as what we had been on, a very good trajectory, but we'll get back to -- those fast speeds of growth in the future.

它不像我們過去那樣快，這是一個非常好的軌跡，但我們會回到 - 未來的快速增長速度。

And I think we're still going to see very good growth in the second half of the year.

而且我認為我們在今年下半年仍將看到非常好的增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

My first question is your revenue outlook.

我的第一個問題是您的收入前景。

It's much lower than previously.

它比以前低得多。

And you highlighted IQOS in Japan as one of the biggest drags on your top line.

您強調日本的 IQOS 是對您收入的最大拖累之一。

But I'm trying to understand your outlook for pricing or revenue for IQOS in all of your other markets.

但我正在嘗試了解您對 IQOS 在所有其他市場的定價或收入前景。

I guess I assumed it would have a bigger contribution as these markets ramp, especially given the tax benefits.

我想我認為隨著這些市場的發展，它會做出更大的貢獻，尤其是考慮到稅收優惠。

And then also, do you expect you'll need to introduce lower price points in some of the other markets sooner than you had previously planned, possibly as soon as next year, to increase conversion?

然後，您是否認為您需要比之前計劃的更早（可能最快明年）在其他一些市場推出更低的價格點，以提高轉化率？

I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of your thinking on all of this.

我想我只是想了解你對這一切的想法。

I mean, our intent is to keep the premium positioning for HEETS.

我的意思是，我們的目的是保持 HEETS 的優質定位。

It's important as you're establishing the new category that it remain premium.

在您建立新類別時，保持優質是很重要的。

You have to -- remember, in Japan, we've reached a market share, which is very, very substantial to the point where you get kind of running out of premium smokers, if you will.

你必須——記住，在日本，我們已經達到了一個非常、非常可觀的市場份額，如果你願意的話，你會發現優質吸煙者已經用完了。

And you need to expand once you hit very high market shares.

一旦你達到很高的市場份額，你就需要擴張。

In other markets, we're not there yet.

在其他市場，我們還沒有。

We will get there eventually.

我們最終會到達那裡。

So certainly, if we get well into the 15%, 16% market share, we're going to have to deal with this issue in other places.

所以當然，如果我們進入 15%、16% 的市場份額，我們將不得不在其他地方處理這個問題。

But we're still not there.

但我們還沒有。

We're growing very rapidly in the EU.

我們在歐盟的發展非常迅速。

In a number of markets, we're doing extremely well.

在許多市場，我們做得非常好。

Italy, Greece, we called out already, but there are a number of other markets that are growing.

意大利、希臘，我們已經呼籲，但還有許多其他市場正在增長。

And when you look at the consumer uptake, it's really taken off in the EU, and we're very pleased with the results there and looking forward to higher market shares.

當你看消費者的接受度時，它在歐盟真的起飛了，我們對那裡的結果非常滿意，並期待更高的市場份額。

But it'll be a ways before we get to the point where we would need to be thinking about introducing a second lineup of SKUs.

但在我們達到需要考慮引入第二個 SKU 陣容的地步之前，這將是一種方式。

But overall, I mean, the HeatSticks, as you point out, are very profitable in the EU.

但總的來說，我的意思是，正如你指出的那樣，HeatSticks 在歐盟非常有利可圖。

They enjoy some favorable tax positioning, and it makes it quite accretive in a number of markets.

他們享有一些優惠的稅收定位，這使得它在許多市場中相當增值。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then the incremental spend behind IQOS of $600 million this year, could you update us on the phasing of this spend and -- for the rest of the year?

然後，今年 IQOS 背後的增量支出為 6 億美元，您能否向我們介紹這筆支出的分階段以及今年剩餘時間的最新情況？

And then more color possibly on some of the initiatives that are working.

然後可能會在一些正在實施的舉措上添加更多顏色。

You touched on the digital initiatives in Russia, which seem to be having a very positive effect.

你談到了俄羅斯的數字計劃，這些計劃似乎產生了非常積極的影響。

And then I know it's early, but how should we think about potential stepped-up investments behind IQOS next year?

然後我知道現在還早，但我們應該如何考慮明年 IQOS 背後潛在的加大投資？

Should we assume you'll continue to ramp spending so you can increase further conversion in the future?

我們是否應該假設您會繼續增加支出，以便在未來進一步提高轉化率？

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

So we're still on track for the [1,600] incremental.

因此，我們仍有望實現 [1,600] 增量。

As far as the phasing, we've -- we're about 50% already in the first quarter.

就分階段而言，我們已經 - 第一季度我們已經完成了大約 50%。

So it's pretty on track, and we'll expect about the same for next -- second half.

所以它很正常，我們預計下半年也會有同樣的情況。

Obviously, we've spent half.

顯然，我們已經花了一半。

We'll have half to go.

我們還有一半要走。

So that remains intact.

所以這仍然完好無損。

We are seeing some very good impacts from some of our investments.

我們從我們的一些投資中看到了一些非常好的影響。

Digital, absolutely.

數字，絕對。

I mean, Russia, you see the market share really popping in Moscow.

我的意思是，在俄羅斯，你看到莫斯科的市場份額真的在飆升。

It's due to a number of initiatives.

這是由於一些舉措。

Digital is playing a role.

數字正在發揮作用。

We're getting better at finding leads and being more efficient at how we decide to approach adult smokers.

我們在尋找線索方面做得越來越好，在決定如何接近成年吸煙者方面也越來越有效。

And it's paying off in efficiency that we hope we will see rolling across other markets towards the latter part of this year and into next year.

我們希望我們能在今年下半年和明年看到在其他市場滾動的效率得到回報。

And it really gives us much more leverage with our coaches, for example, where they can work on leads that are already verified and already delivered from the digital process.

這確實讓我們對教練有了更多的影響力，例如，他們可以處理已經過驗證並已從數字流程中交付的潛在客戶。

It also helps with follow-up during conversion and a number of other benefits.

它還有助於在轉換過程中進行跟進以及其他一些好處。

So the spending that we're making in digital is paying off.

因此，我們在數字方面的支出正在得到回報。

Our retail footprint is improving.

我們的零售足跡正在改善。

We're getting more consistent, higher quality, getting more effectiveness of our retail spend.

我們的零售支出變得更加一致、質量更高、效率更高。

So there are a number of areas where the spending is really starting to pay off and will pay off even more next year.

因此，有許多領域的支出真正開始產生回報，並且明年將獲得更多回報。

As far as next year, when you look at that $600 million, about half of it, say, $300 million, will be in the base but will not grow any further.

就明年而言，當您查看這 6 億美元時，其中大約一半（例如 3 億美元）將處於基數，但不會進一步增長。

They were for specific initiatives that are being built that can handle much higher scale.

它們適用於正在構建的可以處理更高規模的特定計劃。

So it will not need to grow or have more spending behind it in order to provide the benefits to a huge number of consumers and across all the market.

因此，它不需要增長或有更多的支出來為大量消費者和整個市場提供好處。

The other half will scale somewhat on how fast we roll out markets and how fast we have uptake in the consumer conversion piece, but it should not grow as quickly as the consumer pieces.

另一半將在一定程度上取決於我們推出市場的速度以及我們在消費者轉換部分的吸收速度，但它的增長速度不應該像消費者部分那樣快。

So we're looking at the profitability coming from the whole RRP investment to begin paying off much better next year and going forward.

因此，我們正在研究來自整個 RRP 投資的盈利能力，以便在明年和未來開始獲得更好的回報。

Because if you realize that the consumables are being sold at a net ex factory price around the world, that's about twice of our average CC.

因為如果您意識到消耗品在世界範圍內以出廠淨價出售，那大約是我們平均 CC 的兩倍。

So we're getting very good benefits as we grow the volume, and that allows us to amortize the cost of conversion and of these other central initiatives over some very good profitability.

因此，隨著數量的增長，我們獲得了非常好的收益，這使我們能夠在一些非常好的盈利能力上分攤轉換成本和這些其他中心計劃的成本。

And we're seeing more and more and more markets now have passed the point where they're accretive and they're profitable.

我們看到越來越多的市場現在已經過了增長和盈利的地步。

Obviously, Japan and Korea were there.

顯然，日本和韓國都在那裡。

There are a number of markets in the EU that are there.

歐盟有許多市場。

Obviously, Italy, duty-free.

顯然，意大利，免稅。

So we're getting now much more benefit from all these investments, and we're very hopeful going forward.

所以我們現在從所有這些投資中獲得了更多的收益，我們對未來充滿希望。

Okay, that's really helpful.

好的，這真的很有幫助。

I appreciate all that color.

我很欣賞那種顏色。

And then maybe just one final quick one from me.

然後也許只是我最後一個快速的。

I'm just curious to hear how IQOS has been performing in markets where e-cigs are much more prevalent and really what the interaction has been.

我只是想听聽 IQOS 在電子煙更為普遍的市場上的表現如何，以及真正的互動情況。

And then what are your plans for introducing e-cig technology, either organically or possibly via an acquisition?

那麼，您打算通過有機方式還是可能通過收購來引入電子煙技術？

Yes.

是的。

Well, we don't have as much exposure to e-cigs as other companies.

好吧，我們不像其他公司那樣接觸電子煙。

Our biggest e-cig exposure or markets is in the EU.

我們最大的電子煙曝光或市場在歐盟。

U.K. would be obviously the one with the highest level.

英國顯然是水平最高的國家。

We have a lower market share in the U.K., so a lower base from which to deploy our commercialization and so forth.

我們在英國的市場份額較低，因此部署我們的商業化等的基礎較低。

So it's hard to really say where e-cigs versus IQOS.

所以很難說電子煙和 IQOS 的區別。

We know that IQOS is a better product from the point of view of converting consumers, especially adult smokers.

我們知道，從轉化消費者，尤其是成年吸煙者的角度來看，IQOS 是一個更好的產品。

It has lower dual usage.

它具有較低的雙重用途。

It has higher conversion rates than e-cigs.

它的轉化率高於電子煙。

The taste is closer, the delivery of nicotine and the satisfaction of smokers is much closer to cigarettes.

味道更接近，尼古丁的傳遞和吸煙者的滿意度更接近香煙。

So we are confident that IQOS is a better option for adult smokers and that we will be successful -- are successful when we go into markets with e-cigs.

因此，我們相信 IQOS 是成年吸煙者的更好選擇，並且我們會成功——當我們進入電子煙市場時會成功。

One example would be like Italy, where there are e-cigs in that market.

一個例子是意大利，那裡的市場上有電子煙。

Obviously, IQOS is doing extremely well there.

顯然，IQOS 在這方面做得非常好。

And then I think from a point of view of looking at e-cigs, we think the IP and the regulation around the tobacco products of heat not burn is a different category.

然後我認為從看待電子煙的角度來看，我們認為 IP 和圍繞加熱不燃燒煙草產品的監管是不同的類別。

It's difficult to replicate the IP that we have and the scientific substantiation, whereas the e-cig category tends to be much more of a commodity.

很難復制我們擁有的知識產權和科學依據，而電子菸類別往往更像是一種商品。

The technology is pretty much wick and coil across the industry.

該技術在整個行業中都非常受歡迎。

There aren't a lot of sort of unique IP around it.

它周圍沒有很多獨特的 IP。

And then the regulation of it as a tobacco product.

然後將其作為煙草產品進行監管。

While we think heat not burn should be regulated differently than cigarettes, we recognize there'll still be regulation around tobacco products and so forth.

雖然我們認為加熱不燃燒的監管方式應不同於香煙，但我們認識到仍將對煙草產品等進行監管。

So it makes it more difficult for competitors to come into this space if they don't have the experience of the tobacco regulation.

因此，如果競爭對手沒有煙草法規的經驗，他們就更難進入這個領域。

So overall, we do believe that e-cigs have a role to play.

所以總的來說，我們確實相信電子煙可以發揮作用。

We have a very good technology with our MESH that we've developed, and we will be putting out a newer version of that soon.

我們開發的 MESH 技術非常好，我們很快就會推出更新版本。

And we think that our MESH approach has better consistency.

而且我們認為我們的 MESH 方法具有更好的一致性。

It has better IP protection and will deliver better over the long term in the experience of consumers.

它具有更好的 IP 保護，並將在消費者體驗中提供更好的長期體驗。

So we will compete in e-cigs.

所以我們將在電子煙方面展開競爭。

We'll be very successful there.

我們會在那裡非常成功。

But at the same time, we feel that the winning product right now is actually in heat not burn.

但與此同時，我們覺得現在的獲獎產品實際上是在加熱而不是燃燒。

And that's where we can achieve better profitability, better uniqueness and also, better conversion of smokers.

這就是我們可以實現更好的盈利能力、更好的獨特性以及更好的吸煙者轉化率的地方。

So we're pleased to compete with e-cigarettes in any market.

所以我們很高興在任何市場上與電子煙競爭。

Our next question comes from the line of Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

So I guess, first, just in terms of your EPS guidance for the full year.

所以我想，首先，就你全年的 EPS 指導而言。

So ex currency, it's now 8% to 10%, which is slightly better than the last guidance.

因此，除貨幣外，現在是 8% 到 10%，比上次指導略好。

But your tax rate's now come down by about a 400 basis points since beginning of the year.

但是自今年年初以來，您的稅率現在下降了大約 400 個基點。

So that should be adding something like 6 points to EPS growth.

因此，這應該為 EPS 增長增加 6 個百分點。

So I guess, I'm just wondering what's kind of causing the shortfall, that FX-neutral guidance is actually not going up more at this point.

所以我想，我只是想知道是什麼導致了短缺，即外匯中性指導在這一點上實際上並沒有上升更多。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it's the things we've laid out before.

我的意思是，這是我們之前佈置的東西。

Obviously, the tax is coming better.

顯然，稅收正在好轉。

The business is being impacted by the heated tobacco unit shipments, but also now the currency -- I mean, the inventory, which is about a 5 billion swing from what we talked about at the Annual Meeting.

該業務受到加熱煙草單位出貨量的影響，但現在也受到貨幣的影響——我的意思是庫存，這與我們在年會上討論的內容相比大約有 50 億美元的波動。

The devices don't have much impact [because of EPS].

這些設備沒有太大影響 [因為 EPS]。

And then we're getting some offset from the CC business.

然後我們從 CC 業務中得到一些抵消。

So the main impact is the difference between where we were projecting Japan versus where we are today.

因此，主要影響是我們預測日本的位置與我們今天的位置之間的差異。

We're still very confident in Japan, and we're taking the actions necessary.

我們對日本仍然很有信心，我們正在採取必要的行動。

And this step around inventories for both devices and for heated tobacco units is to clear the decks and prepare Japan for better growth going forward so that the initiatives we put in there, the new heated tobacco unit offerings as well as the very compelling new devices, have an opportunity to blossom and to do really well and drive our growth going forward.

圍繞這兩種設備和加熱煙草設備的庫存採取的這一步驟是為了清理甲板並為日本未來更好的增長做好準備，以便我們在那裡採取的舉措、新的加熱煙草設備產品以及非常引人注目的新設備，有機會開花結果，做得很好，推動我們向前發展。

So we're setting the base for a better 2019 and to deliver the numbers.

因此，我們正在為更好的 2019 年奠定基礎並交付數據。

Okay.

好的。

And just to clarify the Japan inventory impact.

並且只是為了澄清日本庫存的影響。

So when you think about third quarter, so if we assume kind of a similar in-market sales growth for IQOS in third quarter, so if you get something like 6.5 billion units, you have an inventory reduction of like 3 billion.

所以當你考慮第三季度時，如果我們假設第三季度 IQOS 的市場銷售增長類似，那麼如果你得到大約 65 億個單位，你的庫存就會減少大約 30 億個。

So basically, you could have an IQOS volume in the third quarter for Japan something like a 3 billion or 3.5 billion.

所以基本上，第三季度日本的 IQOS 銷量可能達到 30 億或 35 億。

That's the right way to model?

這是建模的正確方法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's about right.

我認為這是對的。

We're going to take the inventory adjustment of 3 billion to 4 billion in Japan because, remember, the net is 3 billion.

我們將在日本進行 30 億至 40 億的庫存調整，因為請記住，淨值是 30 億。

It includes a plus 1 billion by the end of the year coming from other areas.

它包括到今年年底來自其他地區的 10 億美元。

So in Japan, we're looking at about a 4 billion inventory.

所以在日本，我們正在尋找大約 40 億的庫存。

It will come mostly in the third quarter, I think, almost entirely in the third quarter.

我認為，它將主要出現在第三季度，幾乎完全出現在第三季度。

And we're making sure we have the right inventory of the Marlboro heated tobacco units to make room for the new lineup of SKUs.

我們正在確保我們擁有正確的萬寶路加熱煙草裝置庫存，以便為新的 SKU 系列騰出空間。

And look, we have a really flexible manufacturing base now.

看，我們現在擁有一個非常靈活的製造基地。

We're able to supply.

我們有能力供應。

So rather than end up with too much inventory of any one particular product, which is hard to predict how it's going to perform going forward, especially given the pricing that's coming in the market and the tax increase, October 1, and the -- so to clear the decks and have a lower inventory, so we can be more flexible is what we're doing.

因此，與其以任何一種特定產品的庫存過多告終，這很難預測其未來的表現，尤其是考慮到市場上的定價和 10 月 1 日的稅收增加，以及 - 所以清理甲板並降低庫存，這樣我們就可以更加靈活，這就是我們正在做的事情。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just lastly, in terms of your price guidance for the combustible, I'm assuming it does not include any potential benefit from Japan.

最後，就可燃物的價格指導而言，我假設它不包括來自日本的任何潛在利益。

So I just wanted to confirm that?

所以我只是想確認一下？

And then just confirm if you've gotten any clarity around the application that you've submitted?

然後確認您是否對所提交的申請有任何了解？

Look, I mean, our guidance is all-in.

看，我的意思是，我們的指導是全力以赴的。

We don't carve out any particular instances.

我們不開闢任何特定的實例。

We have put in the application on conventional products in Japan.

我們已經在日本的常規產品上進行了應用。

The tax increase is JPY 20 per pack.

增稅為每包 20 日元。

We applied for a JPY 50 total increase.

我們申請了總共增加 50 日元。

On the combustible side, there's some technicalities around the calculation of the device -- I mean, on the -- I'm sorry, on the RRP, the heated tobacco unit side, there are some technicalities on how the new tax based on the weight of tobacco or consumable product is calculated, so that's held off a bit the timing of applications.

在可燃物方面，關於設備的計算存在一些技術細節——我的意思是，在——我很抱歉，在 RRP，加熱煙草裝置方面，有一些關於新稅如何基於的技術細節計算煙草或消費品的重量，因此這會稍微推遲應用程序的時間。

But obviously, the tax is going up October 1, so we'll need to submit new price lists as soon as we can for those products as well.

但很明顯，稅收將從 10 月 1 日起上漲，因此我們也需要盡快為這些產品提交新的價目表。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Growe 與 Stifel 的對話。

I just had 2 questions for you.

我剛有 2 個問題要問你。

So I'm curious if you look at your new initiatives you have set for Japan in the second half, some new devices, HeatSticks, pricing and that kind of thing, do you believe that, that will increase the overall level of heated tobacco users in Japan?

所以我很好奇，如果你看看你在下半年為日本製定的新舉措，一些新設備、HeatSticks、定價之類的東西，你相信嗎，這會提高加熱煙草用戶的整體水平在日本？

Is this what's going to hopefully draw in some of the late adopters?

這是否有望吸引一些後來的採用者？

And if I can add to that, you had mentioned that there is 35% of consumers that are using heated tobacco, but a 21% share.

如果我可以補充一點，你提到有 35% 的消費者在使用加熱煙草，但這一比例為 21%。

So what -- and I think you gave a bit of an explanation on that.

那又怎樣——我想你對此做了一些解釋。

I couldn't recall what the explanation is for the gap between those 2 figures there, if you could help with that, too.

我不記得那裡對這兩個數字之間的差距的解釋是什麼，如果你也能幫忙的話。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

So first of all, the number of consumers coming into the heat-not-burn category is growing.

所以首先，進入加熱不燃燒類別的消費者數量正在增長。

We estimate it's around 150,000 per month.

我們估計每月大約有 150,000 個。

And the 34.7% number is anybody, any smoker who has used a heat-not-burn product in the last 7 days.

34.7% 的數字是任何人，任何在過去 7 天內使用過加熱不燃燒產品的吸煙者。

So it doesn't necessarily mean that they've fully converted.

所以這並不一定意味著他們已經完全轉變了。

It doesn't even necessarily mean they've yet bought a device, but they've tried the product, could be also from a friend or somebody else.

這甚至不一定意味著他們已經購買了設備，但他們已經嘗試過該產品，也可能來自朋友或其他人。

But it's an indication of interest.

但這是興趣的表現。

And that, I think, is the starting point.

我認為，這就是起點。

Then you get to the question of, will consumers convert?

然後你會遇到這樣的問題，消費者會轉換嗎？

And this is what our initiatives are around.

這就是我們的舉措。

And we find that IQOS is the best at converting consumers, and we find that it's the best product in the category.

而且我們發現 IQOS 最擅長轉化消費者，我們發現它是該類別中最好的產品。

So as long as the category has interest and people are coming into it -- and look, we're selling over 500,000 kits and/or holders every month in Japan.

因此，只要該類別引起人們的興趣並且人們會加入其中——看，我們每個月在日本銷售超過 500,000 個套件和/或支架。

So we're bringing people into the category.

因此，我們正在將人們帶入這一類別。

It's being hidden a bit by this churn and the fact that consumers are trying many different products, and so the number of sticks per device and consumption has come down a bit.

它被這種流失和消費者嘗試許多不同產品的事實隱藏了一點，因此每台設備的棒數和消費量有所下降。

So you don't see quite the volume and share growth that you would associate with that number of consumers.

因此，您看不到與那麼多消費者相關聯的數量和份額增長。

But we're convinced it's going to settle out, that IQOS will win.

但我們相信它會解決，IQOS 會贏。

It's the best product in the market, and that we will see higher rates of growth.

它是市場上最好的產品，我們將看到更高的增長率。

Now that's underpinned by the 3 buckets of things we're taking in Japan.

現在，這得到了我們在日本採取的 3 桶措施的支持。

We're improving the basics, so the device quality issue and reliability, the loyalty programs for existing users to make sure they stick with IQOS and they appreciate the brand, giving the holders have a program to get people the ability to (inaudible) short term; simplify pricing registration; then you got the messaging to reach a broader consumer base and reach -- for example, we flagged the 50-plus group, which is pretty large in Japan.

我們正在改進基礎知識，因此設備質量問題和可靠性，現有用戶的忠誠度計劃以確保他們堅持使用 IQOS 並且他們欣賞這個品牌，讓持有者有一個計劃讓人們能夠（聽不清）做空學期;簡化定價登記；然後你得到的信息可以覆蓋更廣泛的消費者群並達到——例如，我們標記了 50 多歲的群體，這在日本相當大。

We're adapting our messaging to those -- to that group and focusing on smoke-free Japan, going to where they are, more suburban.

我們正在調整我們的信息以適應那些 - 那個群體並專注於無菸日本，去他們所在的地方，更郊區。

There's a new campaign on the way.

即將推出新的廣告系列。

So that's all around messaging and consumer.

所以這就是消息傳遞和消費者。

And then the products are a key part of it, right?

然後產品是其中的關鍵部分，對嗎？

The new flavor SKU, the new lineup of consumables at the mainstream price, and then very importantly, the new-generation devices, which is a nice improved device.

新口味的SKU，主流價格的新消耗品陣容，然後非常重要的是，新一代設備，這是一個很好的改進設備。

And we're convinced it's going to do really well, even at a premium price to the existing devices, which is why we're bringing the inventory of the previous devices down so that the new devices have room to sell.

我們相信它會做得很好，即使價格高於現有設備，這就是為什麼我們要降低以前設備的庫存，以便新設備有銷售空間。

So all these things put together, I think, will increase the rate of people coming into the category.

因此，我認為，所有這些加在一起，將增加人們進入該類別的比率。

Over time, the churn will dissipate.

隨著時間的推移，流失將消散。

It may take a while.

這可能需要一段時間。

We still have the spread of competitive products, but you see what's happening in the cities where they've already been the longest.

我們仍然有競爭產品的傳播，但你會看到它們已經傳播時間最長的城市正在發生什麼。

We started to tick back up.

我們開始重新開始。

So it's going to come.

所以它會來的。

It's just a matter of being more conservative in our estimates about when that will happen and making the room for these initiatives to take root and be successful through the inventory resizing.

這只是我們對何時發生的估計更加保守的問題，並為這些舉措紮根並通過庫存調整取得成功留出空間。

So that's kind of the story around Japan.

這就是日本各地的故事。

We're really confident in the future.

我們對未來充滿信心。

We are absolutely sure that the basics are in place.

我們絕對確信基礎知識已經到位。

The product is right, and it's going to resume growth.

產品對了，它會恢復增長。

We're just being more conservative about when we forecast that will happen and getting room for the initiatives to take place.

我們只是對何時會發生這種情況更加保守，並為採取這些舉措騰出空間。

Okay.

好的。

And if I can ask one other quick one it's just that -- and from a high level, I guess.

如果我可以快速地問另一個人，那就是——我猜是從高層次上。

When you saw in Japan and Korea the product reached a 2, 2.5 share, we started to see sort of an exponential increase in market share from that point forward.

當您在日本和韓國看到該產品達到 2、2.5 的份額時，我們開始看到從那時起市場份額呈指數級增長。

It got real, a lot of consumer adoption from that point, got to be well known in the market, that kind of thing.

從那時起，它變得真實，很多消費者採用，在市場上廣為人知，諸如此類。

You're not seeing that quite so much in Europe.

你在歐洲看不到那麼多。

Is that what we should expect, the EU is just different than Japan?

這是我們應該期待的，歐盟與日本不同嗎？

Or is it around the way you're spending behind the product or anything you could add to that just to understand how the shares develop in the EU and when they could start to really kind of take off from here?

或者它是圍繞你在產品背後的支出方式還是你可以添加的任何東西來了解歐盟的股票如何發展以及它們何時可以真正開始從這裡起飛？

Well, look, there are a couple of markets that have accelerated notably in the last few periods.

嗯，看，有幾個市場在過去幾個時期明顯加速。

I mean, you call out Europe.

我的意思是，你呼喚歐洲。

Take Italy.

以意大利為例。

Italy is starting to take some pretty big jumps in the share quarter-over-quarter.

意大利的份額環比開始出現相當大的躍升。

I mean, we're at 1.5 share points in the first quarter, now we're at 1.9, okay.

我的意思是，我們在第一季度的份額為 1.5，現在是 1.9，好吧。

So maybe it's not taking off quite as fast as Korea or Japan, but that's a noticeable acceleration in share.

所以也許它的起飛速度不如韓國或日本，但這是一個明顯的份額加速。

Russia, Moscow being the leading city for Russia.

俄羅斯，莫斯科是俄羅斯的主要城市。

I mean, to jump from 2.7% to 4.4% in 1 quarter, that is a serious acceleration.

我的意思是，在 1 個季度內從 2.7% 躍升至 4.4%，這是一個嚴重的加速。

Also Greece is another example, and there are some other markets.

希臘也是另一個例子，還有其他一些市場。

I mean, I'm not going to go through the whole list, but we are starting to see faster growth across a variety of markets.

我的意思是，我不會一一列舉，但我們開始看到各種市場的增長更快。

And I think part of it is the efficiency of our initiatives and that we're learning how to do it better.

我認為部分原因在於我們舉措的效率，我們正在學習如何做得更好。

Our spending is paying off better, but it's also, I think, what you pointed out, which is word-of-mouth.

我們的支出得到了更好的回報，但我認為，這也是您所指出的，即口耳相傳。

At some point, it gets to a critical mass, where people start seeing each other using it and they start reaffirming their choice and you start to see a difference in the growth rate.

在某個時候，它達到了臨界質量，人們開始看到彼此使用它，他們開始重申他們的選擇，你開始看到增長率的差異。

And we are seeing that.

我們正在看到這一點。

Obviously, in different geographies, it might be to different extremes, but it is significant growth.

顯然，在不同的地區，它可能會走向不同的極端，但它是顯著的增長。

And we're very pleased with the progress across EU, Russia, a number of different geographies as well as the great success we've had in Japan and Korea.

我們對歐盟、俄羅斯、許多不同地區的進展以及我們在日本和韓國取得的巨大成功感到非常高興。

So it's getting very broad-based now, and we're very pleased with it and very confident in the future.

所以它現在變得非常廣泛，我們對此非常滿意，並對未來充滿信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Spielman of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Adam Spielman。

My first question is really focusing around the $600 million and how you're spending it and how that's varied in the light of a slowdown in Japan and Korea?

我的第一個問題是真正關注這 6 億美元以及您如何使用它以及在日本和韓國經濟放緩的情況下它有何變化？

And I suppose what I'm really trying to ask is this: it sounds like you are ramping your marketing investments in Japan in response to the slightly disappointing trajectory in Japan, but you're keeping the $600 million stable, does that mean to say that you're not investing as much in Europe as you would have done?

我想我真正想問的是：聽起來您正在加大在日本的營銷投資以應對日本略微令人失望的發展軌跡，但您保持 6 億美元的穩定，這是否意味著說你在歐洲的投資沒有你本應做的那麼多？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Well, in Japan, we're actually spending this year what we planned to spend already at the beginning of the year.

好吧，在日本，我們今年實際上花費了我們年初計劃的支出。

We have not increased the total spending in Japan above what we had already planned.

我們沒有將日本的總支出增加到我們已經計劃的水平之上。

And it -- sure, within the $600 million that we're spending across a variety of markets, including Japan, Korea, EU, a number of different geographies.

而且它 - 當然，在我們在各種市場上花費的 6 億美元中，包括日本、韓國、歐盟和許多不同的地區。

But the plans as far as how the markets are spending it are pretty much on track, and Japan is actually right on track with its spending.

但就市場支出方式而言，這些計劃基本都步入正軌，而日本的支出實際上也走上了正軌。

So it's a step up from last year, and that's maybe what you're seeing when you look through our earnings release.

因此，這比去年有了進步，這可能就是您在查看我們的收益發佈時所看到的。

But that was already planned, and it's already in the $600 million number.

但這已經計劃好了，而且已經達到了 6 億美元的數字。

We haven't increased either the $600 million nor have we increased its allocation to Japan.

我們既沒有增加 6 億美元，也沒有增加對日本的撥款。

Fine.

美好的。

That's very interesting.

這很有趣。

And then as I look at the rest of the world, so excluding Japan and Korea, we've talked about it a lot, it seems to me that -- certainly, compared to my expectations, it's doing better in certain geographies, you've called out Greece, Italy, Russia, than I would have expected, but correspondingly less well in others, and I'm really talking Northwest Europe here.

然後當我看看世界其他地方時，除了日本和韓國，我們已經討論了很多，在我看來 - 當然，與我的預期相比，它在某些地區做得更好，你'我提到了希臘、意大利、俄羅斯，這超出了我的預期，但其他國家的情況相應地不太好，我在這裡真正談論的是西北歐。

Is that compared with your sort of full cost, let's say, this time last year -- is that how you would see it as well?

這與你的全部成本相比，比方說，去年這個時候——你也會這麼看嗎？

Better in some places, worse in others, net-net, in line with what you expected?

有些地方更好，有些地方更差，net-net，符合你的預期嗎？

Well, I think we expected it to do well across the geographies.

好吧，我認為我們期望它在各個地區都表現出色。

It's done a little bit better in some, obviously, and in others we're hoping to accelerate the growth, and we're still confident it'll come.

顯然，它在某些方面做得更好，而在其他方面，我們希望加速增長，我們仍然相信它會到來。

I mean, one, where it would pay off tremendously if it grew, but is challenging is Germany.

我的意思是，其中一個是德國，如果它增長，它將獲得巨大的回報，但具有挑戰性。

We knew because of the characteristics of the consumer and so forth, it was a little bit more of a show-me type market and would take more effort and more incremental growth to where we get to a point.

我們知道，由於消費者的特徵等等，它更像是一個展示型市場，需要更多的努力和更多的增量增長才能達到一定程度。

We are growing in Germany.

我們在德國成長。

We're gaining consumers.

我們正在贏得消費者。

We're making progress.

我們正在取得進展。

It's going okay.

一切順利。

But obviously, we would like to see it do better in Germany, partly because it would be extremely profitable as well as the fact that it's a key market for us, and we would like to grow it.

但顯然，我們希望看到它在德國做得更好，部分原因是它會非常有利可圖，而且它是我們的關鍵市場，我們希望發展它。

But we're very confident it's going to happen.

但我們非常有信心它會發生。

We are applying these new tools and the learnings and getting better every day.

我們正在應用這些新工具和知識，並且每天都在變得更好。

And it is starting to move faster.

而且它開始移動得更快。

But we're always looking for more.

但我們一直在尋找更多。

And very quickly, it's not my final question, the U.K., I mean, I live in London.

很快，這不是我的最後一個問題，英國，我的意思是，我住在倫敦。

It seems to me you're making big efforts here, but I just wonder how it's doing in London?

在我看來你在這裡付出了很大的努力，但我只是想知道它在倫敦的表現如何？

Yes.

是的。

I think we're making progress.

我認為我們正在取得進展。

We have good efforts on the ground there, and it's a market that is very interesting because it has a fairly large e-cigarette component.

我們在那裡做了很好的努力，這是一個非常有趣的市場，因為它有相當大的電子煙成分。

And we have consumers there, and we also would like to see it do well in the U.K. from the point of view of English-speaking and would spread the word better around the word -- world with word-of-mouth.

我們在那裡有消費者，我們也希望看到它在英國從說英語的角度來看做得很好，並且會更好地傳播這個詞 - 口口相傳的世界。

It's going fine.

一切順利。

We're making progress, but that's a market that we're putting a lot a focus on and trying to accelerate the growth in.

我們正在取得進展，但這是一個我們非常關注並試圖加速增長的市場。

Finally, just -- you dropped some hints about pricing.

最後，只是 - 你放棄了一些關於定價的提示。

One thing you said -- I think you said is you're planning the new device to be at a premium to the existing IQOS device.

你說的一件事——我想你說的是你計劃讓新設備比現有的 IQOS 設備溢價。

I'm intrigued by that, particularly in light of the fact that the heavy discounting from the Glo device and to some degree from Ploom.

我對此很感興趣，特別是考慮到 Glo 設備和 Ploom 在某種程度上的大幅折扣這一事實。

And also, I think I heard you say that you're definitely planning to submit a new price list for IQOS in Japan in due course to deal with the tax rise on IQOS.

而且，我想我聽到你說你肯定計劃在適當的時候在日本提交一份新的 IQOS 價格表，以應對 IQOS 的稅收上漲。

Can you -- is that correct?

你能——對嗎？

Sure, sure.

一定一定。

So for the existing lineup of devices in Japan, we set the price now as a simple one price as opposed to the situation before where you had discounting and you had most consumers having to go through a registration process to get the discount price.

因此，對於日本現有的設備系列，我們現在將價格設置為一個簡單的價格，而不是之前有折扣的情況，大多數消費者必須通過註冊程序才能獲得折扣價。

It also gave the impression of the device being sort of marked down.

它還給人一種設備被降價的印象。

So we made it simple -- we've simplified the registration, but we also didn't require the registration in order to get the same price, the JPY 8,000 price, which is where most consumers were getting to anyway, but only after some pain and suffering.

所以我們讓它變得簡單——我們簡化了註冊，但我們也不需要註冊來獲得相同的價格，即 8,000 日元的價格，這是大多數消費者無論如何都會得到的價格，但只有在一些之後痛苦與苦難。

And that was also in anticipation of bringing the new lineup of devices because the plan all along was when the new devices arrive would be to have a 2-price tier system for the existing lineup and then the new and improved lineup at a higher price, not unlike you would see for other electronic product lineups.

這也是對引入新設備系列的預期，因為一直以來的計劃是，當新設備到貨時，將為現有系列配備一個 2 價位系統，然後以更高的價格推出新的和改進的系列，與您在其他電子產品系列中看到的不同。

So we just accelerated that, took away the pain and suffering of having to go through a long process to register and get the price which you should have gotten anyway, and put it there.

因此，我們只是加快了速度，消除了必須經過漫長的過程才能註冊並獲得無論如何都應該獲得的價格並將其放在那裡的痛苦和痛苦。

So yes, when the new lineup comes, it will be an improved device.

所以是的，當新的陣容出現時，它將是一個改進的設備。

It will offer better functionality, performance, design, all the great things -- the consecutive use, too, by the way.

它將提供更好的功能、性能、設計，以及所有偉大的東西——順便說一下，連續使用也是如此。

And so in general, it will be priced above the older device, which you would expect.

因此，總的來說，它的價格會高於您所期望的舊設備。

That's not surprising.

這並不奇怪。

As far as the consumables pricing, I was just referencing that on October 1, there's a tax increase in Japan for both RRP and conventional cigarettes.

至於消耗品定價，我剛才提到的是 10 月 1 日，日本對 RRP 和傳統捲菸的稅收都有所增加。

So obviously, you need to have your price lists in before any tax increase.

很明顯，在任何增稅之前，您都需要準備好價目表。

We've already put our price lists in for the combustible.

我們已經列出了可燃物的價目表。

And so we were delayed a bit by this technicality on the rest of our portfolio.

因此，由於我們其他產品組合的這種技術性，我們被推遲了一點。

And so that's what I was referring to.

這就是我所指的。

But the new retail price will be higher to take into account the tax increase on the consumables of IQOS?

但考慮到IQOS的耗材加稅，新零售價會更高嗎？

Well, there is a tax increase, and we're going to file a price list that deals with that.

好吧，稅收增加了，我們將提交一份處理這個問題的價目表。

I can't comment further on pricing.

我無法就定價進一步發表評論。

Fine.

美好的。

And one thing I did ask, do you feel the JPY 8,000 is right in the light of a JPY 3,000 for some Glo devices?

我確實問過一件事，鑑於某些 Glo 設備的 3,000 日元，您覺得 8,000 日元合適嗎？

Well, we're still selling a nice amount of devices, and we do have a superior product, we believe.

好吧，我們仍然在銷售大量設備，我們相信我們確實擁有優質的產品。

So we want to have the premium positioning.

所以我們希望擁有優質的定位。

So yes, I think this is about the right price.

所以是的，我認為這是合適的價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Michael Lavery。

I just wanted to touch on Russia.

我只想談談俄羅斯。

It's your largest cigarette market where you've launched IQOS.

這是你們推出 IQOS 的最大香煙市場。

And you've highlighted some of the momentum there.

你已經強調了那裡的一些勢頭。

Can you just help me reconcile a few of the data points you've given me.

你能幫我核對一下你給我的一些數據點嗎？

You talk about the 4.4% share in Moscow.

你說的是莫斯科4.4%的份額。

That's close to 10% of the population in that country.

這接近該國人口的 10%。

You've also got the almost 1 billion sticks in that region, which is primarily Russia and Ukraine.

你在那個地區也有近 10 億支，主要是俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

I guess, I'm just trying to reconcile that with your Appendix 1, where you show 0 -- rounding, I suppose, to 0 market share for Russia, if you took, say, half of the segment number divided by the market size, you're still looking at around 0.7 or 0.8 share.

我想，我只是想將其與您的附錄 1 協調一致，您在附錄 1 中顯示了 0——我想，如果您將細分市場數量的一半除以市場規模，則四捨五入為俄羅斯的 0 市場份額，您仍在尋找大約 0.7 或 0.8 的份額。

Obviously, the 4.4%, at around 10% of the country would be close to 0.4 of a share.

顯然，4.4%，佔全國 10% 左右，將接近 0.4 的份額。

Why is there no share registering on a national basis?

為什麼沒有在全國范圍內進行股份登記？

And how should we think about tying all that together?

我們應該如何考慮將所有這些聯繫在一起？

I think this has to do just with the data source for the shares at Nielsen for Russia, I think, yes, offtake.

我認為這只與尼爾森俄羅斯股票的數據源有關，我認為，是的，承購。

It may just be that -- I'm not sure, to be honest with you, Michael.

可能只是 - 我不確定，老實說，邁克爾。

It may just be that the way we pick up share in Russia, it's still not picking up -- in Moscow, rather, it's still not picking up in there.

可能只是我們在俄羅斯獲得份額的方式，它仍然沒有增加——在莫斯科，更確切地說，它在那裡仍然沒有增加。

But I honestly don't have the answer for that and...

但老實說，我沒有答案，而且......

Can you give a sense of what the split is between Russia and Ukraine or any other markets in that segment?

您能否說明俄羅斯和烏克蘭或該細分市場中任何其他市場之間的分歧是什麼？

Just kind of how big when you look at that shipment number, how much of that is coming from Russia?

當你看那個出貨量時，它有多大，其中有多少來自俄羅斯？

We really haven't split it out by market.

我們真的沒有按市場劃分。

Obviously, Russia is probably the biggest component, but it's not split by that.

顯然，俄羅斯可能是最大的組成部分，但並沒有因此而分裂。

And now that you've got no issues with capacity, would you -- are you looking at a national expansion in Russia or further expansion beyond?

既然你沒有容量問題，你會 - 你正在考慮在俄羅斯進行全國擴張還是進一步擴張？

I know you called out Moscow, typically you're also in St.

我知道你叫莫斯科，通常你也在聖彼得堡。

Petersburg as well.

彼得堡也一樣。

What's your thinking about reaching beyond those?

你對超越這些有什麼想法？

Well, we're having terrific results in Russia.

好吧，我們在俄羅斯取得了驚人的成績。

So logically, we would be expand -- we will expand, yes.

所以從邏輯上講，我們會擴張——我們會擴張，是的。

We will continue to expand in Russia.

我們將繼續在俄羅斯擴張。

I'm not going to say the plan and so forth, but absolutely, with the results that we're having and the programs working so well, it's only logical that we will continue to expand in Russia and carry this...

我不會說計劃之類的，但絕對的，鑑於我們取得的成果和項目運作良好，我們將繼續在俄羅斯擴張並實現這一目標是合乎邏輯的……

Or any sense of timing, maybe is a better way to put it?

或者任何時間感，也許是更好的表達方式？

No, not at this time.

不，不是現在。

And then just one more on Japan.

然後再寫一篇關於日本的文章。

There's the smoking ban coming into place.

禁煙令即將實施。

It looks like that applies to heated tobacco as well.

看起來這也適用於加熱的煙草。

How does that influence your outlook for the market there?

這對您對那裡的市場前景有何影響？

And just any thoughts on what we should expect from that coming through.

以及關於我們應該從中得到什麼的任何想法。

Yes, I don't think we really have an impact from that on the market development going forward.

是的，我不認為我們真的會對未來的市場發展產生影響。

I mean, usually, smoking bans aren't a big impact on volume in a market.

我的意思是，通常情況下，禁煙令不會對市場銷量產生重大影響。

I think it's disappointing if they don't allow heated tobacco units because I think it is materially different to combustible and it should be allowed.

我認為如果他們不允許使用加熱煙草裝置會令人失望，因為我認為它與可燃物有本質上的不同，應該被允許。

It does not impact into our air quality.

它不會影響我們的空氣質量。

We have the studies to prove it.

我們有研究來證明這一點。

In fact, we did a study in Japan on actual consumers and looking at the biomarkers in individuals and proved that the IQOS device does not impact air quality or give a problem to non-smokers in the area.

事實上，我們在日本對實際消費者進行了一項研究，並觀察了個人的生物標記，證明 IQOS 設備不會影響空氣質量或給該地區的非吸煙者帶來問題。

Michael, just to follow up.

邁克爾，只是為了跟進。

Michael, it's Nick.

邁克爾，是尼克。

That ban does apply to both combustible and heat-not-burn.

該禁令確實適用於可燃物和加熱不燃燒物。

And they've carved out some differences between the two, so I think that's the good news that they're recognizing the heat-not-burn category as a bit different.

他們已經找出了兩者之間的一些差異，所以我認為這是個好消息，因為他們認識到加熱不燃燒類別有點不同。

Sorry, just to clarify, then you said it does apply to both, but there's some carve-outs?

抱歉，只是為了澄清一下，然後你說它確實適用於兩者，但有一些例外？

There are some differences, and I can get you the specifics on that after the call.

存在一些差異，我可以在通話後為您提供詳細信息。

Like in restaurants and bars and things you may be able to use...

就像在餐館和酒吧以及您可以使用的東西...

I think there are different categories...

我認為有不同的類別...

Something like -- you know, eating establishments, things of that nature where you can't use CC, but you can use heat-not-burn.

就像——你知道，飲食場所，你不能使用 CC，但你可以使用加熱不燃燒的那種性質的東西。

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Leinster of Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Jon Leinster。

Just going back to a previous question, what plans have you got, if any, for the full commercialization of Platforms 2, 3 and 4?

回到之前的問題，對於平台 2、3 和 4 的全面商業化，您有什麼計劃（如果有的話）？

Where are we in that?

我們在哪裡？

Okay.

好的。

So for Platform 2, which is the heat-not-burn product, delivers similarly to Platform 1, but it uses a carbon tip to generate the energy.

因此，平台 2 是一種加熱不燃燒產品，其輸送方式與平台 1 類似，但它使用碳尖端來產生能量。

That product has been launched in a limited city test in the Dominican Republic.

該產品已在多米尼加共和國的有限城市測試中推出。

We're gathering good consumer data and consumer information on that and preparing to ramp up for production, and we'll give plans for that going forward.

我們正在收集良好的消費者數據和消費者信息，並準備增加生產，我們將為此制定計劃。

Platform 4, which is the e-cigarette MESH product I referred to before, is a new version of it is being finalized, and it'll be launched soon.

Platform 4，也就是我之前提到的電子煙MESH產品，是正在定型的新版本，很快就會上線。

And it is an improved technology, we believe, and a differentiated product from others in the e-cigarette category.

我們相信，這是一項改進的技術，也是與電子菸類別中其他產品的差異化產品。

So we have high hopes for that product, and continue development of that product going forward to deliver better satisfaction to smokers.

因此，我們對該產品寄予厚望，並繼續開發該產品，為吸煙者帶來更好的滿意度。

So that will be put out in its market before the end of the year.

因此，它將在年底前投放市場。

And then Platform 3 is a little bit more in development, and we don't have it in test market yet, but we will get it into a test market as soon as we can.

然後 Platform 3 正在開發中，我們還沒有進入測試市場，但我們會盡快進入測試市場。

But does that mean we should expect any -- when would we expect the first national launch of any of these products?

但這是否意味著我們應該期待任何——我們什麼時候可以期待這些產品中的任何一個在全國范圍內首次推出？

We haven't said, so, you know, I don't have any new update on that.

我們還沒有說，所以，你知道，我沒有任何新的更新。

Okay.

好的。

And secondly, the -- certainly, there was trade press suggesting that the announced IQOS factory in Germany was no longer going to go ahead.

其次，當然，有貿易媒體暗示已宣布的德國 IQOS 工廠將不再繼續進行。

Is that true?

真的嗎？

And are some of the other ones that you announced to Romania, Greece, the doubling of the size in Italy, Switzerland investment, Russia investment, are some of those also being scaled back or perhaps not going ahead?

您向羅馬尼亞、希臘宣布的其他一些投資、意大利投資規模翻倍、瑞士投資、俄羅斯投資是否也在縮減或可能不會繼續？

Well, look, we're reevaluating our whole CapEx for RRPs.

好吧，看，我們正在重新評估 RRP 的整個資本支出。

The values, we're in good shape with RRP capacity.

價值觀，我們在 RRP 能力方面處於良好狀態。

We have better efficiency with the spend because we have better uptime.

我們有更好的支出效率，因為我們有更好的正常運行時間。

We've had lower waste numbers, and we've also figured out how to better use some existing facility layouts.

我們的廢棄物數量減少了，而且我們還想出瞭如何更好地利用一些現有設施佈局的方法。

And with the new growth forecast, we're in pretty good shape.

有了新的增長預測，我們的狀況非常好。

So we have changed the timing on some of our spending for CapEx.

因此，我們改變了一些資本支出支出的時間安排。

That's why we have a lower CapEx number for the year.

這就是為什麼我們今年的資本支出數字較低。

And we're going to continue to evaluate the footprint for RRP going forward.

我們將繼續評估 RRP 未來的足跡。

We don't have any announcements on individual factories, but we're doing the assessment now.

我們沒有個別工廠的公告，但我們現在正在做評估。

And we'll give more information to the individual areas as they might be impacted or not.

我們會向各個區域提供更多信息，因為它們可能會受到影響，也可能不會受到影響。

From a company perspective, I mean, it's a story of us being more effective and efficient with the spend and phasing the timing of our investment on CapEx to match the situation.

從公司的角度來看，我的意思是，這是一個關於我們在支出方面更加有效和高效的故事，並調整我們對資本支出的投資時機以適應這種情況。

Okay.

好的。

And separate one, within Japan now, you may or may not be able to answer this, but I mean, is there going to be a direct connection, when you're talking about potentially launching a higher tar and nicotine product, but also a lower price point.

另外一個，現在在日本國內，你可能無法回答這個問題，但我的意思是，當你談論可能推出更高焦油和尼古丁的產品時，是否會有直接聯繫？較低的價格點。

Is there actually going to be a direct connection between the sort of pricing and the level of tar and nicotine?

定價的種類與焦油和尼古丁的水平之間真的有直接聯繫嗎？

In other words, is there going to be -- is the market going to be stratified into a sort of higher-price product, which are more flavorsome, but -- more tar and nicotine and the lower price product, which perhaps gives less of a kick?

換句話說，市場是否會被分層為一種價格更高的產品，這種產品味道更好，但更多的是焦油和尼古丁，而價格較低的產品可能提供的更少一腳？

Or is that not going to be the case?

還是事實並非如此？

Am I...

我是不是...

That is not going to be the case.

事實並非如此。

We're not launching a higher tar and nicotine product.

我們不會推出更高焦油和尼古丁的產品。

We said more flavorful.

我們說更有味道。

First of all, tar doesn't really make sense when you talk about heated tobacco units.

首先，當您談論加熱煙草裝置時，焦油並沒有真正意義。

The aerosol is dramatically different.

氣溶膠截然不同。

It's not really -- tar doesn't really make sense in the case of those.

這不是真的 - tar 在那些情況下並沒有真正意義。

And the nicotine level doesn't necessarily go with the flavor level.

尼古丁水平不一定與風味水平相符。

It's about the selection of tobaccos and the way we make the tobacco -- crimp tobacco in the rod that creates a different flavor.

這是關於菸草的選擇和我們製作煙草的方式——將煙草捲曲在棒上，創造出不同的風味。

So we're talking about more flavorful, ones that -- products that give more taste in the consumer experience in order to bridge better to full-flavor smokers.

所以我們談論的是更有味道的產品——在消費者體驗中提供更多味道的產品，以便更好地與全味吸煙者聯繫起來。

But it has nothing to do with tar and nicotine.

但它與焦油和尼古丁無關。

And as far as price goes, we're going to have a lineup of different flavors.

就價格而言，我們將推出一系列不同口味的產品。

We would not price according to the flavor or the nicotine amount or anything like that.

我們不會根據口味或尼古丁含量或類似因素定價。

Nothing like that, no.

沒有那樣的，不。

Right, okay.

對，好吧。

And lastly, I think, historically, I mean, you talked about having a sort of new -- sort of EPS algorithm at some point in 2018.

最後，我認為，從歷史上看，我的意思是，你談到在 2018 年的某個時候有一種新的 EPS 算法。

Given the uncertainties, is that still the plan at some point?

考慮到不確定性，在某個時候這仍然是計劃嗎？

Or is that perhaps going to be later?

或者可能會晚些時候？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, we have our Investor Day that's coming up at the end of September.

我的意思是，我們的投資者日將於 9 月底舉行。

And we will talk about the future in much more depth there and talk about the different aspects of our growth and the very positive plans we have for the future.

我們將在那裡更深入地談論未來，談論我們成長的不同方面以及我們對未來的非常積極的計劃。

I think that's probably the best venue in which to talk about our longer-term prospects on growth for the company.

我認為這可能是談論我們對公司增長的長期前景的最佳場所。

Our next question comes from the line of Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

I think you may have just killed my question then, talking about long term, but it's more of a long-term question.

我認為您當時可能剛剛扼殺了我的問題，談論的是長期問題，但這更像是一個長期問題。

So I'm assuming you've modeled a number of scenarios internally.

所以我假設你已經在內部模擬了很多場景。

And to that respect, you've spoken quite bullishly in the past when IQOS was continuing to grow very strongly.

在這方面，當 IQOS 繼續非常強勁地增長時，你過去曾相當樂觀地說過話。

The double-digit group organic sales growth each year was possible going forward.

未來每年兩位數的集團有機銷售額增長是可能的。

My question is, if IQOS growth stays at the current rate, we increasingly see lower-priced variants introduced, like you plan to do in Japan, and perhaps vapor becomes more prevalent on a global basis than you had expected, then what sort of sales growth could we expect in that scenario?

我的問題是，如果 IQOS 的增長保持目前的速度，我們會越來越多地看到低價變體的推出，就像你計劃在日本做的那樣，也許蒸汽在全球範圍內變得比你預期的更普遍，那麼什麼樣的銷售在那種情況下我們可以期待增長嗎？

Well, look, I mean, first of all, we don't believe that scenario is reflective of what's going to happen.

好吧，我的意思是，首先，我們不認為這種情況反映了將要發生的事情。

The heat-not-burn category is profitable so that products that we sell in that category are more profitable than our conventional cigarette products.

加熱不燃燒類別是有利可圖的，因此我們在該類別中銷售的產品比我們的傳統捲菸產品更有利可圖。

And we think it will stay that way.

我們認為它會保持這種狀態。

Some of it's coming from tax differential.

其中一些來自稅收差異。

We think we have very good arguments for maintaining a tax differential.

我們認為我們有很好的理由維持稅收差異。

We've been very successful around the world at having these products at a lower tax than conventional cigarettes.

我們在世界範圍內以低於傳統香煙的稅率銷售這些產品非常成功。

And if you couple that with the fact that the production costs are roughly the same as cigarette and the trade margins are the same as cigarettes, you have a much more profitable category.

如果將其與生產成本與香煙大致相同且貿易利潤率與香煙相同的事實相結合，您就會擁有一個更有利可圖的類別。

We think it's defensible with our IP and the regulatory situation around tobacco.

我們認為我們的知識產權和煙草的監管情況是可以辯護的。

We think that the conversion costs are reasonable, given the higher income stream coming from the higher margins on these products.

我們認為轉換成本是合理的，因為這些產品的更高利潤帶來了更高的收入流。

And they're coming down, the conversion costs.

他們正在下降，轉換成本。

As you amortize essential costs and the setup costs over more and more volume, the conversion costs will come down and the scale will help us with that.

隨著您將基本成本和設置成本分攤到越來越多的數量上，轉換成本將會下降，而規模將幫助我們實現這一點。

We're building brand equity with IQOS.

我們正在通過 IQOS 建立品牌資產。

So we have every reason to believe that the profitability of IQOS and heat-not-burn category, in general, going forward will be very good and better than cigarettes.

所以我們完全有理由相信，IQOS和加熱不燃燒品類的盈利能力，總的來說，未來會非常好，比香煙更好。

And we are very confident in that scenario.

我們對這種情況非常有信心。

I think the success we've had around the world and the fact that these products in these markets, even at relatively low market shares, are accretive and adding profitability to the company is a testament to that.

我認為我們在世界各地取得的成功，以及這些市場中的這些產品，即使市場份額相對較低，也能增加公司的盈利能力，這證明了這一點。

Okay.

好的。

But then just in terms, when you speak about double-digit organic sales growth, I mean, even given the trends we're seeing right now, do you think that is still a long-term possibility or perhaps that needs to come in some more?

但就條款而言，當你談到兩位數的有機銷售增長時，我的意思是，即使考慮到我們現在看到的趨勢，你認為這仍然是一個長期的可能性，還是需要一些更多的？

Look, I mean, I think at Investor Day, we'll talk about the further out periods.

看，我的意思是，我認為在投資者日，我們將討論更遠的時期。

I think 2019 will be a better year for us.

我認為 2019 年對我們來說將是更好的一年。

We're lapping some challenges around Saudi for this year, that's 3 EPS points.

今年我們正在應對沙特阿拉伯的一些挑戰，即 3 個 EPS 點。

The combustible business is better.

可燃業務較好。

It's strong, it's improving.

它很強大，它正在改進。

We got volume, we got share improved on combustible.

我們得到了銷量，我們在可燃物方面的份額得到了改善。

We got pricing that's going well.

我們的定價進展順利。

Our investments going forward, I already talked about, are more manageable in the out-years because you don't step up the infrastructure cost that you built for bigger volumes.

我已經談到，我們未來的投資在未來幾年更易於管理，因為您不會增加為更大容量構建的基礎設施成本。

We're taking the inventory rightsizing and the initiatives in Japan that will help set the deck for 2019 and help the initiatives in Japan really take effect and get us better growth there.

我們正在日本進行庫存調整和舉措，這將有助於為 2019 年做好準備，並幫助日本的舉措真正生效並讓我們在那裡實現更好的增長。

And then you've got tremendous growth across a bunch of geographies on IQOS this year that augurs very well for the future next year.

然後你今年在 IQOS 的許多地區都取得了巨大的增長，這預示著明年的未來非常好。

So I can talk -- tell you, 2019, we're quite confident in and very bullish about.

所以我可以說 - 告訴你，2019 年，我們非常有信心並且非常看好。

And we can talk more at Investor Day about the longer term and the different elements of our growth.

我們可以在投資者日更多地討論我們增長的長期和不同因素。

Our final question will come from the line of Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

I just wanted to ask about the combustibles business and what's driving the improved [adaptations] there.

我只是想問一下可燃物業務，以及是什麼推動了那裡的改進[適應]。

Is it less cannibalization from IQOS?

是不是和IQOS的蠶食少了？

And are you reallocating some incremental investment back into the cigarette business?

您是否將一些增量投資重新分配回捲煙業務？

No.

不。

I think the spending is the flip side of what we talked about with the $600 million on RRP.

我認為支出是我們談論的 6 億美元 RRP 的另一面。

We haven't really changed greatly the investment plans behind the combustible category.

我們並沒有真正改變可燃品類別背後的投資計劃。

Our pricing went very well this year across a broad series of geographies, so that's helping the overall.

今年我們的定價在一系列廣泛的地區都表現得非常好，所以這對整體有幫助。

And our share is doing better.

我們的份額做得更好。

I mean, there were another -- a number of markets that had been dragging on us, which are now turned around.

我的意思是，還有另一個 - 許多市場一直在拖累我們，現在已經扭轉了局面。

I mean, you go to the Asia, South and Southeast Asia region.

我的意思是，你去亞洲、南亞和東南亞地區。

Indonesia is positive share this year and doing better on the first half on volume; Philippines, we're getting great share growth in the Philippines and the profitability is improving.

印度尼西亞今年的份額為正，上半年的銷量表現更好；菲律賓，我們在菲律賓的份額增長很快，盈利能力也在提高。

From a volume perspective, Thailand and Pakistan are adding, whereas before it wasn't as much.

從數量的角度來看，泰國和巴基斯坦正在增加，而之前並沒有那麼多。

Turkey, the market is growing due to illicit coming back into the legal market, and we're benefiting greatly from that.

土耳其，由於非法產品重新進入合法市場，市場正在增長，我們從中受益匪淺。

In Germany, our pricing and initiatives went very well this year.

在德國，我們今年的定價和舉措進展順利。

We had growth in share in the second quarter.

我們在第二季度的份額有所增長。

And so it's starting to deliver some good benefits.

因此，它開始帶來一些好處。

So it's a broad range of geographies where the brands are doing well, the pricing is a bit better, and the overall market volumes, in a few cases, are a bit better, like I mentioned in Turkey, but also in some of the geographies that had been causing us issues before.

因此，品牌在廣泛的地區表現良好，定價更好一些，在某些情況下，整體市場容量更好一些，就像我在土耳其提到的那樣，但在一些地區也是如此這之前一直給我們帶來問題。

We have situations where we have volume coming back from illicit due to a number of factors, like in Pakistan, the new tax tier, et cetera.

在某些情況下，由於多種因素，例如在巴基斯坦，新的稅收等級等，我們的非法交易量又回來了。

So you add it all up, and we have a very good picture going forward not just for the second quarter, but going forward on the conventional products business.

所以你把這一切加起來，我們不僅對第二季度，而且對傳統產品業務都有很好的展望。

Okay.

好的。

And then I was just wondering if you can elaborate on the commercialization strategy for the next-generation IQOS device?

然後我想知道您是否可以詳細說明下一代IQOS設備的商業化策略？

Are you going to be rolling it out across all markets, or initially just in Japan?

您是要在所有市場推出它，還是首先只在日本推出？

I think you're going to have to wait and see on that one.

我認為你將不得不拭目以待。

I can tell you we're very excited about this new generation of devices.

我可以告訴你，我們對新一代設備感到非常興奮。

They really are better from the way the consumers use them, the interface, the way they look, the performance of them.

從消費者使用它們的方式、界面、外觀和性能來看，它們確實更好。

And we have a good plan for introducing them, and you'll have to wait and see.

我們有一個很好的引入它們的計劃，你必須拭目以待。

Okay.

好的。

And can you comment on the battery life?

你能評論一下電池壽命嗎？

How many uses will the device have?

該設備有多少用途？

Well, listen, in that -- we flagged as one of the drivers of having to reduce inventories and device sales going forward is that we're finding that our devices are actually holding up better as far as the length -- the life of the battery, if you will.

好吧，聽著，我們標記為必須減少庫存和設備銷售的驅動因素之一是我們發現我們的設備實際上在長度方面保持得更好 - 壽命電池，如果你願意的話。

You buy a battery and it's rated for a certain number of cycles.

你買了一塊電池，它的額定循環次數是一定的。

But the reality is, in real life and with the consumer use, people are tending to get more cycles out of them.

但現實是，在現實生活中和消費者的使用中，人們傾向於從中獲得更多的循環。

So the replacement rate for battery life issues is actually turning out to be a bit lower than what we had planned.

所以電池壽命問題的更換率實際上比我們計劃的要低一些。

And therefore, consumers can hang onto them and use them for a longer period of time.

因此，消費者可以堅持使用它們並使用更長的時間。

So the batteries in these devices are fantastic technological quality, and they're lasting better.

因此，這些設備中的電池具有出色的技術質量，而且它們更耐用。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That was our final question.

這是我們的最後一個問題。

I would like to turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

我想將發言權交還給管理層，聽取任何補充或結束髮言。

Yes.

是的。

I just want to close with just -- reiterate 3 key points for our outlook.

我只想結束 - 重申我們展望的 3 個關鍵點。

First of all, the base business we've talked about it, it's doing better.

首先，我們談到的基礎業務做得更好。

We got improved volume, the share.

我們得到了改進的數量和份額。

The Marlboro is doing well across the world, and the pricing is coming in very nicely this year.

萬寶路在世界範圍內銷售良好，今年的定價非常好。

The RRP growth is substantial.

建議零售價增長可觀。

Year-over-year, we're growing our IMS, nearly doubling it, and it's really broad-based.

年復一年，我們正在發展我們的 IMS，幾乎翻了一番，而且它的基礎非常廣泛。

It's covering a number of geographies not just Asia now with Japan and Korea, which are great success stories, but also EU, Russia, other markets are starting to kick in with significant additions to our volume growth.

它覆蓋了許多地區，不僅是亞洲現在的日本和韓國，這些都是偉大的成功案例，而且歐盟、俄羅斯和其他市場也開始介入，我們的銷量增長顯著增加。

And the last point is that we've taken some decisive action to improve our growth going forward, in Japan, in particular, the initiatives we put in place in rightsizing these inventories.

最後一點是，我們已經採取了一些果斷行動來改善我們未來的增長，特別是在日本，我們為合理調整這些庫存而採取的舉措。

And we're doing that in order to give us better results going forward.

我們這樣做是為了讓我們在未來取得更好的結果。

Not only to let the initiatives have better impact, but also prepare the decks for 2019.

不僅要讓倡議產生更好的影響，還要為2019年做準備。

So we're very confident about the future.

所以我們對未來非常有信心。

We look forward to giving more detail at Investor Day, and we look forward to improved results going forward.

我們期待在投資者日提供更多細節，我們期待未來取得更好的結果。

So thanks very much, everybody.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。

This does conclude today's Philip Morris International Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

這確實結束了今天的菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2018 年第二季度收益電話會議。

You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。