普拉格能源 (PLUG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Plug Power 第一季財報電話會議強調了該公司致力於推動綠氫經濟,在擴大業務、擴大合作夥伴關係和獲得新交易方面取得了重大進展。儘管設備利潤面臨挑戰,Plug 仍實施了重組措施以提高效率,並有望顯著成長。

該公司正在調整定價策略,實施節省成本的措施,並預計電解槽的銷售將成長。他們對今年現金消耗減少 70% 持樂觀態度,並專注於執行 2024 年的積壓工作。

Plug也專注於在北美建立綠色氫能發電網絡,儘管存在潛在挑戰,但對其策略充滿信心。該公司對他們在氫能行業的進展和未來前景持樂觀態度。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Plug Power's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Meryl Fritz, Marketing Communications Manager. Thank you, Meryl. You may begin.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Plug Power 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹行銷傳播經理 Meryl Fritz。謝謝你,梅麗爾。你可以開始了。

  • Meryl Fritz - Manager of Marketing and Communications

    Meryl Fritz - Manager of Marketing and Communications

  • Thank you. Welcome to the Plug Power Q1 Earnings Call.

    謝謝。歡迎參加 Plug Power 第一季財報電話會議。

  • This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, among others, statements of expectations, beliefs, future plans and strategies, anticipated results from operations and developments and other matters that are not historical facts. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

    此次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包括但不限於預期、信念、未來計畫和策略、營運和發展的預期結果以及其他非歷史事實的陳述。我們希望這些前瞻性聲明受到 1933 年《證券法》第 27A 條和 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條所載前瞻性陳述安全港條款的涵蓋。

  • We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned to not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, and such statements should not be read or understood as a guarantee of future performance or results. Such statements are based upon the current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections as well as the current beliefs and assumptions of management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors, including, but not limited to, the risks and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other reports we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    我們認為,向投資者傳達我們對未來的期望非常重要。然而,投資者應注意不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述,此類陳述不應被解讀或理解為對未來績效或結果的保證。此類陳述基於當前的預期、估計、預測和推測以及管理層當前的信念和假設,並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果或業績與由於各種因素而討論的結果或業績有重大差異。風險因素中討論的風險和不確定性不時向證券交易委員會提交文件。

  • These forward-looking statements speak only of date in which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call or as a result of new information.

    這些前瞻性陳述僅涉及做出陳述的日期,我們不承諾或打算在本次電話會議後或因新資訊而更新任何前瞻性陳述。

  • At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug Power's CEO, Andy Marsh.

    現在,我想將電話轉給 Plug Power 的執行長 Andy Marsh。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Meryl, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

    謝謝梅莉爾,大家早安,謝謝您今天加入我們。

  • This quarter has been pivotal for Plug. As we continue to execute on our mission to drive the green hydrogen economy, we are focused intensely on enhancing our cash management strategies and accelerating sales growth. These efforts are crucial as we navigate through the recalibrations necessary for long-term sustainable growth. Our strategic decisions this quarter are designed to solidify our leadership in the green hydrogen economy. We've made significant strides in scaling up our operations. Our hydrogen generation network has been -- particularly has seen substantial growth.

    本季度對於 Plug 來說至關重要。在我們繼續履行推動綠色氫經濟的使命的同時,我們專注於加強現金管理策略和加速銷售成長。當我們進行長期可持續成長所需的重新調整時,這些努力至關重要。我們本季的策略決策旨在鞏固我們在綠氫經濟領域的領導地位。我們在擴大業務規模方面取得了重大進展。我們的氫氣產生網路已經取得了顯著的成長。

  • The production facilities in Georgia, Tennessee are currently performing at full capacity and we're eagerly anticipating the completion of our new plant in Louisiana. This addition will not only boost our production capacity by 15 tons per day but also significantly reduce our dependency on third-party hydrogen suppliers.

    田納西州喬治亞州的生產設施目前正在滿載運轉,我們熱切期待路易斯安那州新工廠的竣工。此次增產不僅將使我們的產能提高15噸/天,也將大幅減少我們對第三方氫氣供應商的依賴。

  • Building on this momentum, we are planning the development of up to 6 additional hydrogen plants across United States. This expansion is critical for meeting the demand for green hydrogen as industry and transport sectors seek sustainable energy solutions. The strategic placements of these plants will help mitigate logistical challenges, reducing the cost of hydrogen delivery and enhancing our competitive edge in the market.

    在此勢頭的基礎上,我們計劃在美國再建造多達 6 座氫氣工廠。隨著工業和運輸部門尋求永續能源解決方案,這種擴張對於滿足綠氫的需求至關重要。這些工廠的戰略佈局將有助於緩解物流挑戰,降低氫氣輸送成本並增強我們在市場上的競爭優勢。

  • Plug continues to advance the pending loan guarantee from the Department of Energy and awaits the conditional commitment approval announcement. This program is expected to bolster the build-out of Plug's liquid hydrogen facilities throughout the United States. Commensurately, the company has started a process with advisers to complement our anticipated DOE projects with project equity investors and project finance partners to finance the build-out of the plants.

    Plug 繼續推動能源部懸而未決的貸款擔保,並等待有條件承諾批准公告。該計劃預計將支持 Plug 在美國各地的液氫設施的建設。同時,該公司已開始與顧問合作,與項目股權投資者和項目融資合作夥伴一起補充我們預期的能源部項目,為工廠的建設提供資金。

  • Our strategy, expanding partnerships and securing new deals has continued to bear fruit this quarter. The extension of our partnership with Uline, and securing a substantial deal with a top U.S. automotive manufacturer are a testament to our robust business model and our ability to deliver comprehensive hydrogen solutions that meet diverse customers' needs. These partnerships not only demonstrate our market leadership, but also reinforces the trust that major industrial players place in Plug to support their transition to sustainable energy practices.

    我們的策略、擴大合作夥伴關係和獲得新交易在本季繼續取得成果。我們與 Uline 的合作夥伴關係的擴展,以及與美國頂級汽車製造商達成的實質交易,證明了我們穩健的商業模式以及我們提供滿足不同客戶需求的全面氫解決方案的能力。這些合作夥伴關係不僅展示了我們的市場領導地位,還增強了主要工業參與者對 Plug 的信任,以支持他們向永續能源實踐的過渡。

  • In Europe, our significant expansion efforts are highlighted by the commissioning of 20 PEM electrolyzer systems at sites throughout the continent, representing the largest build-out of its kind in the Western world. This is a key part of our strategy to meet the rapidly growing demand for our products globally. Pivotal component of our strategy for electrolyzers is the basic engineering and design package, which currently encompasses projects totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts. These BEDP contracts are just not a testament to our technology and market leadership, they represent potential future sales that could be transformative for Plug.

    在歐洲,我們的重大擴張工作是在整個歐洲大陸的 20 個 PEM 電解槽系統的調試中體現出來的,這是西方世界同類建設中規模最大的。這是我們滿足全球產品快速成長的需求策略的關鍵部分。我們電解槽策略的關鍵組成部分是基礎工程和設計包,目前包含總計約 4.5 吉瓦的專案。這些 BEDP 合約並不能證明我們的技術和市場領先地位,它們代表了未來潛在的銷售,可能會為 Plug 帶來改變。

  • By facilitating our customers' journey to final investment decisions, these packages can significantly shorten the sales cycle and enhance our ability to lock in substantial long-term contracts. As we continue to advance our technology and increase our project capabilities, Plug is enhancing its footprint, not just in the U.S. but globally. This strategic expansion aligns perfectly with our mission to lead in the green hydrogen economy, ensuring that we remain at the forefront of delivering innovative and sustainable energy solutions.

    透過促進客戶做出最終投資決策,這些套餐可以顯著縮短銷售週期並增強我們鎖定大量長期合約的能力。隨著我們不斷推進技術並提高專案能力,Plug 正在擴大其足跡,不僅在美國,而且在全球範圍內。這項策略擴張與我們引領綠氫經濟的使命完美契合,確保我們始終處於提供創新和永續能源解決方案的前沿。

  • Look, despite our successes, we have faced challenges, particularly this quarter with equipment margins due to strategic inventory reductions and this quarter of product sales. In response, we've implemented a series of restructuring measures aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiencies. This includes headcount reductions and operational considerations, which are difficult but necessary decisions to enhance our long-term sustainability and profitability.

    看起來,儘管我們取得了成功,但我們也面臨著挑戰​​,特別是本季由於戰略庫存削減和本季產品銷售而導致的設備利潤率。為此,我們實施了一系列旨在降低成本、提高效率的重組措施。這包括裁員和營運方面的考慮,這些都是困難但必要的決定,以增強我們的長期可持續性和盈利能力。

  • Looking to the future, Plug is poised for significant growth. The foundations we are building today through operational excellence, strategic expansion and a real focus on robust financial health are designed to solidify our leadership in the hydrogen market. As the world continues to turn to sustainable solutions, Plug will be ready to meet and exceed the demands of the growing industry.

    展望未來,Plug 有望實現顯著成長。我們今天透過卓越營運、策略擴張和對穩健財務健康的真正關注而建立的基礎旨在鞏固我們在氫市場的領導地位。隨著世界不斷轉向永續解決方案,Plug 將做好準備,滿足並超越不斷成長的產業的需求。

  • To conclude, we remain deeply committed to our strategic goals and are optimistic about the opportunities ahead.

    總而言之,我們仍然堅定地致力於我們的策略目標,並對未來的機會持樂觀態度。

  • Now Paul, Sanjay and I are ready to take your questions and provide further insights into our journey.

    現在,保羅、桑傑和我準備好回答你們的問題,並為我們的旅程提供進一步的見解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of James West with Evercore ISI.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 James West。

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    James Carlyle West - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • So we're a few more months into your pricing strategy adjustments. And curious, initially, how that went, how it's going now? I suspect your customers will kind of understand the pricing needed to be adjusted. But I'd love to hear your kind of thoughts or your views on how that process has gone so far and what we should expect over the next several quarters?

    因此,我們還需要幾個月的時間來調整您的定價策略。我很好奇,一開始情況如何,現在又如何?我懷疑您的客戶會理解需要調整的定價。但我很想聽聽您對這一過程到目前為止的進展以及我們在接下來的幾個季度應該期待什麼的想法或看法?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So James, our primary focus, first and foremost, has been looking to increase the value of -- the price of hydrogen and also the price of service. When we look at our top 8 customers, 6 of those customers, we have come to final written contractual agreements and the 2 remaining customers, we are actually at the point where we're down to final steps in the negotiations. We expect that the hydrogen business will be approaching gross margin breakeven by the fourth quarter, which will be a major accomplishment.

    因此,詹姆斯,我們的首要關注點,首先是尋求提高氫氣價格和服務價格的價值。當我們查看前 8 位客戶時,其中 6 位客戶已達成最終書面合約協議,而剩下的 2 位客戶實際上已進入談判的最後步驟。我們預計氫業務到第四季將接近毛利率損益平衡,這將是一項重大成就。

  • But I think even -- and this is broadly with the material handling market, but we've actually learned a lot along this journey about the value we are bringing to customers. And it is why I expect this during the coming 3 quarters, that you're going to see equipment sales, and we know where they're going to be for the second quarter are going to rebound. We feel really good about that after this recalibration process. And when I look at the electrolyzer business, I can tell you that we have been very successful in raising prices 10% to 15% as we negotiate and work with the customers.

    但我認為,即使在物料搬運市場上,我們實際上也學到了很多關於我們為客戶帶來的價值的知識。這就是為什麼我預計在接下來的三個季度中,您將看到設備銷售,並且我們知道第二季的銷售將會反彈。經過這次重新校準過程後,我們對此感覺非常好。當我審視電解槽業務時,我可以告訴你,透過與客戶談判和合作,我們非常成功地將價格提高了 10% 至 15%。

  • So across the board, it's been a difficult journey, a learning journey but I think it's been really beneficial for the long-term success of this business.

    因此,總的來說,這是一次艱難的旅程,一次學習的旅程,但我認為這對這項業務的長期成功確實有益。

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    James Carlyle West - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then just a follow-up for me. With Georgia, Tennessee online and Louisiana coming online soon, and I think the focus probably shifts to Texas next. But as we think about as we're getting towards maybe now or the end of the year, how much of your current hydrogen, I guess, green hydrogen supply that you're providing to customers, are you now and going to be satisfying by year-end with your own production versus buying from third parties?

    好的。知道了。然後是我的後續行動。隨著喬治亞州、田納西州和路易斯安那州即將上線,我認為接下來的焦點可能會轉移到德克薩斯州。但是,當我們考慮現在或年底時,您目前向客戶提供的氫氣中有多少,我猜,您現在和將要滿足的綠色氫氣供應量是多少?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. James, I would expect we'll be in the 65% range because of growth this year. So today, we're -- today, we're about at 50 tons per day. I expect we'll be closer to 65 tons per day by year-end. We'll have about 45 tons of our own capacity. And you're right, the next big event after that is bringing taxes online, and that should be late in '25, and that would bring 45 tons per day of hydrogen.

    是的。 James,由於今年的成長,我預計我們將處於 65% 的範圍內。所以今天,我們每天的產量大約是 50 噸。我預計到年底我們的產量將接近每天 65 噸。我們自己的產能約為 45 噸。你是對的,在那之後的下一個重大事件是在線徵稅,這應該是在 25 年末,這將帶來每天 45 噸的氫氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Eric Stine with Craig Hallum.

    我們的下一個問題來自艾瑞克·斯泰恩(Eric Stine)和克雷格·哈勒姆(Craig Hallum)的對話。

  • Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • So you called out the cost savings measures taken in the quarter, I know previously you had talked about targeting $75 million in annual cost savings. So just curious what you just disclosed for 1Q, is that above and beyond the $75 million? And maybe just some thoughts on given this path you're going down margins profitability, where those cost savings can go all in?

    因此,您提到了本季採取的成本節約措施,我知道您之前曾談到每年節省成本 7500 萬美元的目標。所以只是好奇你剛剛披露的第一季的情況,是否超出了 7500 萬美元?也許只是一些想法,考慮到這條道路你會降低利潤率,這些成本節省可以全部投入到哪裡?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to turn that over to Paul.

    我要把它交給保羅。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So a couple of things, Eric. One, we've made really good progress. A lot of the actions that we had announced and thought about have been completed, and you're starting to see that in the rates. You'll see a full quarter benefit of that in Q2 because it was kind of mid-quarter when some of those were taken. There's also actions that are underway. So some things like rooftop consolidations, some we're able to do fairly quickly and some will be completed in Q2. And so you'll see some of those benefits start to manifest in Q2 and progress on into Q3.

    是的。有幾件事,埃里克。第一,我們已經取得了非常好的進展。我們已經宣布和考慮的許多行動已經完成,您開始在費率中看到這一點。您將在第二季度看到整個季度的收益,因為其中一些收益是在季度中期採取的。還有一些行動正在進行中。所以有些事情,例如屋頂整合,有些我們能夠很快完成,有些將在第二季完成。因此,您會看到其中一些好處在第二季開始顯現,並持續到第三季。

  • We've come out of the gate laser-focused on cash management. And across this organization, everybody understands that cost curtailment and cost downs are critically important. So I'm absolutely optimistic and excited that I'm sure there's more opportunities as we progress through the year that we're going to continue to find and look to reduce the cost. So some things are pretty clear, and we're able to act on those pretty quickly. And some things just take some time to work through to figure out what those best actions and activities are. So I think we're in a great position in terms of what we announced and in a great position of what we can do incrementally.

    我們一開始就專注於現金管理。在整個組織中,每個人都明白削減成本和降低成本至關重要。因此,我非常樂觀和興奮,我確信隨著這一年的進展,我們將繼續尋找並尋求降低成本,將會有更多機會。所以有些事情非常明確,我們能夠很快採取行動。有些事情只是需要一些時間來弄清楚哪些是最好的行動和活動。因此,我認為,就我們所宣布的內容以及我們可以逐步進行的工作而言,我們處於有利地位。

  • Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. That's good color. And maybe just a follow-up. The DOE loan, I know you've had confidence in that all along, but it does seem like your commentary this morning would maybe take that up another notch, maybe just current thoughts on timing and next steps.

    好的。這顏色真好啊也許只是後續行動。關於能源部的貸款,我知道您一直對此充滿信心,但看起來您今天早上的評論可能會將其提升一個檔次,也許只是當前對時間安排和後續步驟的想法。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, look, I think you hit it on the head, Eric. We continue to advance the process with the DOE. And now we're anxiously awaiting the committed approval announcement. And look, it is -- if you talk about [items], we're laser-focused on it.

    好吧,聽著,我認為你擊中了要害,艾瑞克。我們繼續與能源部一起推進這項進程。現在我們正在焦急地等待承諾的批准公告。你看,如果你談論[物品],我們就會高度關注它。

  • Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And amount, I mean, no changes there. It's just -- it's consistent with what you've talked about in the past?

    知道了。我的意思是,金額沒有變化。只是──這與你過去所說的一致嗎?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • It is consistent with what we talked about in the past.

    這和我們過去講的是一致的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • It looks like during the quarter, the equipment margins came under particular pressure. There were some improvements in other gross margin, but this is an area where you saw some pressure. But just trying to understand the outlook of it. Do you expect this to improve based on some of the other commentary you have made? But generally, what's your outlook for the equipment margins? And do you genuinely believe that like 1Q could be the bottom here in equipment margins?

    看起來在本季度,設備利潤率面臨著特別的壓力。其他毛利率有所改善,但這是您看到一些壓力的領域。但只是想了解它的前景。根據您所做的其他一些評論,您預計情況會有所改善嗎?但總的來說,您對設備利潤的前景有何看法?您真的相信第一季可能是設備利潤率的底部嗎?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, absolutely. I think I would say this, we've been pretty consistent that scale and volume make a big difference. And so when you look at the level of equipment sales in Q1, those are -- that was a lower level that -- those are situations that don't drive the most opportunistic leverage on labor and overhead. We've got the facilities and the capacity to produce substantially more than we're shipping at the moment. So there's nothing but upside. And if you look at our forecast, Q1 is, as we've been consistently sharing is, always the lowest quarter of the year, and it's in that 10% to 12% range of our sales.

    是的,一點沒錯。我想我會這麼說,我們一直非常一致地認為規模和數量會產生很大的影響。因此,當你查看第一季的設備銷售水平時,會發現這些情況——這是一個較低的水平——這些情況不會對勞動力和管理費用產生最具機會主義的槓桿作用。我們擁有足夠的設施和能力,生產的產品遠多於我們目前的出貨量。所以除了好處之外別無他法。如果你看一下我們的預測,正如我們一直分享的那樣,第一季始終是一年中最低的季度,而且它占我們銷售額的 10% 到 12% 範圍內。

  • And so if you think about that mathematically, that means we're going to be shipping a substantial amount more and recognizing a lot more in the balance of the year. So just volume alone is a big benefit. But even some of the cost reduction benefits that we announced in the first quarter, those -- a lot of those were operational. When you think about rooftop consolidations and headcount reductions, and those will pay dividends as we balance through the year, and we start to realize the full benefits of that. So it's absolutely upside from here.

    因此,如果你從數學角度考慮這一點,這意味著我們將在今年剩餘時間運送更多的貨物,並認識到更多的東西。因此,僅憑數量就可以帶來很大的好處。但即使我們在第一季宣布的一些成本削減優勢,其中許多都已經投入使用。當你考慮屋頂整合和裁員時,這些將在我們全年平衡時帶來紅利,我們開始意識到這樣做的全部好處。所以從這裡開始絕對是有利的。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Okay. But the second question is your outlook for your electrolyzer business. And do you think once the government absolutely finalizes the 45-week guidance, there will be more people who would know exactly what the guidance has looked like. So they'll be more comfortable placing those electrolyzer orders. So just trying to understand what's your outlook for the sales of electrolyzers for the rest of the year?

    好的。但第二個問題是您對電解槽業務的前景。您認為一旦政府徹底敲定了為期 45 週的指導意見,會有更多的人確切地知道該指導的具體內容嗎?因此他們會更放心地下這些電解槽訂單。那麼,我想了解一下您對今年剩餘時間電解槽的銷售前景有何看法?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to turn that, Manav, over to Sanjay, but I would highlight, when you look at the activities we have, we're on the ground commissioning 50 megawatts in Europe today. And there's -- that activity in Europe is going to grow and continue to grow. And we expect that if I was going to use a crystal ball at the moment, you may even get some in between guidance in July -- June, July time frame. And I would suspect at the moment final guidance at the end of the year. But I will let Sanjay talk about what he expects ahead of that business in 2024.

    Manav,我要把這個問題轉給 Sanjay,但我要強調的是,當你看看我們所進行的活動時,我們今天正在歐洲進行 50 兆瓦的實地調試。歐洲的活動將會成長並持續成長。我們預計,如果我現在要使用水晶球,您甚至可能會在 7 月、6 月、7 月的時間範圍內得到一些指導。目前我懷疑最終的指導意見會在年底公佈。但我會讓 Sanjay 談談他對 2024 年這項業務的期望。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure. So Manav, I think you should absolutely expect meaningful sequential growth, as Andy just talked about it, right? We have over 20 systems that's going through site acceptance test as well as final commissioning that will start to show up in Q2, that will start to show up in Q3. And by the way, for 2024, our electrolyzer business is really about executing on a pretty substantial backlog that we already have. Having said that, what you're going to see here is, Andy touched on our basic engineering design packet, where we have about 4.5 gigawatt of that basic engineering design packet. Some of that is in the U.S. A lot of that is in Europe. We also have a pretty big opportunity on that basic engineering design packet in Asia Pac.

    當然。所以馬納夫,我認為你絕對應該期待有意義的連續增長,正如安迪剛剛談到的那樣,對吧?我們有 20 多個系統正在進行現場驗收測試以及最終調試,這些測試將在第二季開始進行,並將在第三季開始進行。順便說一句,到 2024 年,我們的電解槽業務實際上是要執行我們已經有的大量積壓訂單。話雖如此,您將在這裡看到的是,Andy 談到了我們的基本工程設計包,我們擁有大約 4.5 吉瓦的基本工程設計包。其中一些在美國,大部分在歐洲。我們在亞太地區的基礎工程設計包上也有相當大的機會。

  • And many of these customers, right, some of them are going into final investment decision by the end of this year. Some of them are going into the final investment decision by early 2025, and you will start to see the basic engineering design packet convert into backlog. And the good thing for us with that is it normally provides us with a substantial growth as you start to look beyond this year and into '25 and '26, it also makes this business very, very predictable. We can manage costs. We can manage working capital. We're working off of a very substantial backlog.

    其中許多客戶,對,其中一些客戶將在今年年底前做出最終投資決定。其中一些將在 2025 年初做出最終投資決策,您將開始看到基本工程設計包轉化為待辦事項。對我們來說,好處是,當你開始展望今年之後的25年和26年時,它通常會為我們帶來大幅成長,這也使得這項業務非常非常可預測。我們可以管理成本。我們可以管理營運資金。我們正在處理大量積壓的訂單。

  • So when you look at that and then think about also a pulse there from a cost reduction perspective, right, facility consolidation, things we are doing to reduce the overall cost of our stack. So as you go into the end of this year, you should see pretty substantial change in the margin profile for that electrolyzer business. And that trend will only go to the right and keeps getting better as you go to '25 and beyond. That's how we should think about it.

    因此,當你看到這一點,然後從降低成本的角度考慮那裡的脈搏,對吧,設施整合,我們正在做的事情是為了降低堆疊的整體成本。因此,當你進入今年年底時,你應該會看到電解槽業務的利潤狀況有相當大的變化。而且這種趨勢只會向右發展,隨著你進入 25 歲及以後,會變得越來越好。我們應該這樣思考。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

  • William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

    William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

  • We'd like to talk about the full year and also the first quarter. It did come in light. You did reiterate 1/3 in first half, 2/3 in second half. I believe you had previously expected to drive year-on-year growth for your overall business in 2024, perhaps even double-digit growth. And I think that you were expecting originally maybe about 15% of full year revenue would land in the first quarter. That would for the quarter was lighter than expectations. So I guess, first off, do you still expect to be able to drive year-year growth this year for the business overall? If that's the case, that implies a pretty large step-up in 2Q revenues in a 1/3, 2/3 scenario, maybe some of which is driven by what Sanjay just said.

    我們想談談全年和第一季的情況。它確實出現了。你確實在上半場重申了1/3,在下半場重申了2/3。我相信您之前預計2024年整體業務將實現同比增長,甚至可能是兩位數的增長。我認為您最初預計全年收入的 15% 左右將落在第一季。本季的情況低於預期。所以我想,首先,您是否仍期望能夠推動今年整體業務的年成長?如果是這樣的話,這意味著第二季度收入在 1/3、2/3 的情況下會有相當大的增長,也許其中一些是由 Sanjay 剛才所說的推動的。

  • But were some of the revenues in the first quarter, they didn't show up and they're showing up in the second quarter. What's driving the step up in the second quarter? And more importantly, what's driving the step-up in the back half of the year if you can parse by applications and energy and so forth, that would be helpful.

    但第一季的部分收入並沒有出現,而是在第二季出現。是什麼推動了第二季的成長?更重要的是,如果您可以透過應用程式和能源等進行解析,那麼推動下半年成長的因素將會有所幫助。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. So Bill, let me take a step back, and I'm going to hand it off to Paul. We do expect, and as I said on the last call, growth this year. It's certainly -- it will be -- we would expect that when we look at the numbers that by the first quarter, into the second quarter, we expect to be about 33%. So I think the analysts have us out there and the consensus the analysts have today when we review it in general, we think they're about right for the second quarter.

    當然。那麼比爾,讓我退後一步,我將把它交給保羅。正如我在上次電話會議上所說,我們確實預計今年會出現成長。當然,我們預計,當我們查看第一季和第二季的數字時,我們預計這一數字約為 33%。因此,我認為分析師已經讓我們知道了,當我們總體回顧時,分析師今天達成的共識是,我們認為他們對第二季的預測是正確的。

  • And so I think what TheStreet is guiding for the second quarter is in line with our revenue expectations. Paul, maybe you can talk about -- I know part of it's the commission of the electrolyzers, which kind of slipped from the first to second. I know there's one material handling customers at 3 sites that were slipping into the quarter, but you may want to talk about that.

    因此,我認為 TheStreet 對第二季的指導符合我們的收入預期。保羅,也許你可以談談——我知道其中一部分是電解槽的調試,從第一個滑到了第二個。我知道 3 個地點有一個物料搬運客戶進入本季度,但您可能想談談這一點。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And I guess I'd just preface it by say, if you look at the math and you assume Q1 being, call it, 11%, 12% and 10% to 12% in that range of the full year, mathematically, that infers the full year, absolutely is going to grow off of next to last year, as an example. So that's for sure. And as Andy said, there's -- the 5-megawatt system, we're really excited about that deployment and the pipeline, the backlog, the traction that we're making, getting the customers to deploy that and work it through those start-up activities. That just provides a learning wheel that we can accelerate deployments as we balance through the year with all of those that we have in the pipeline.

    是的。我想我只是在序言中說,如果你看一下數學,你假設 Q1 在全年的這個範圍內,稱之為 11%、12% 和 10% 到 12%,從數學上來說,這意味著例如,全年絕對會比去年增長。所以這是肯定的。正如安迪所說,有 - 5 兆瓦系統,我們對部署和管道、積壓工作、我們正在製造的牽引力感到非常興奮,讓客戶部署該系統並通過這些啟動工作 -了活動。這只是提供了一個學習輪,我們可以在這一年中與我們正在準備的所有專案進行平衡時加速部署。

  • So those will come in, in Q2, and there's a lot of activity for what will happen in the second half. If you look at the second half, I mean, 2/3 of our sales as we inferred and you have the typical seasonality with material handling, and then you have the added compounding benefit of the scaling of these new things that we're doing with electrolyzers and electrification and new cryogenic hydrogen products that are starting to get traction. So it's -- those are the real compounding factors that drive that second half effect and I think we feel pretty good about Q2, and we feel really good about the full year.

    因此,這些將在第二季度出現,下半年將發生許多活動。如果你看看下半年,我的意思是,我們推斷的銷售額的 2/3,並且材料處理具有典型的季節性,然後你會獲得我們正在做的這些新事物的擴展帶來的額外複合效益隨著電解槽和電氣化以及新的低溫氫產品開始受到關注。所以,這些是推動下半年效應的真正複合因素,我認為我們對第二季感覺非常好,而且我們對全年感覺非常好。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Sanjay, maybe you can describe the electrolyzer business because you have the backlog there as well as you in your -- most of your cryogenic business. Maybe you can touch on that, and I'll touch a little on application.

    桑傑(Sanjay),也許你可以描述一下電解槽業務,因為你那裡有積壓的訂單,以及你的大部分低溫業務。也許你可以談談這一點,我會談談應用程式。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Absolutely. So Bill, I think one of the key things here that actually did have an impact in Q1, as Paul alluded to, right. So all this 5-megawatt system that we're going through commissioning process, rev rec happens when you actually do a full site acceptance test, right? A lot of that is on us. Some of that is on customers, and there's a lot of factors you got to navigate through. And we've done that, right? Now I think as we sit here in Q2, you will actually see a lot of those get completed. And based on the number of systems we're working on, you should anticipate that there's going to be a pretty big sequential jump in that revenue going from Q1 to Q2 then to Q3, and that's what's going to really help the energy business sales.

    絕對地。所以比爾,我認為這裡的關鍵事情之一實際上確實對第一季產生了影響,正如保羅所提到的那樣,對吧。因此,我們正在經歷調試過程的所有 5 兆瓦系統,當您實際進行完整的現場驗收測試時,就會發生轉速記錄,對吧?其中很多都由我們承擔。其中一些與客戶有關,您必須考慮許多因素。我們已經做到了,對嗎?現在我認為,當我們在第二季度坐在這裡時,您實際上會看到其中很多已經完成。根據我們正在開發的系統數量,您應該預計,從第一季到第二季度,再到第三季度,收入將出現相當大的連續成長,這將真正有助於能源業務的銷售。

  • Second piece here is also our cryogenic business where -- and let me break that into 2 pieces here, right? As you think about our second half of the year for our cryo business, you should expect a meaningful growth in our mobile refueler. You should also expect meaningful growth in our liquid hydrogen trailer business, which obviously has a higher ticket item as well as a better margin profile, giving you a much bigger second half in that business than even in the first half. And finally, on the liquefaction side of our business, we anticipate new awards here, but these are big ticket items as well, right?

    這裡的第二部分也是我們的低溫業務——讓我在這裡把它分成兩部分,對吧?當您考慮我們今年下半年的低溫業務時,您應該預期我們的行動加油機將出現有意義的成長。您還應該期待我們的液氫拖車業務出現有意義的成長,該業務顯然具有更高的票價項目以及更好的利潤狀況,使您在該業務的下半年比上半年更大。最後,在我們業務的液化方面,我們預計會在這裡獲得新的獎項,但這些也是大項目,對吧?

  • So I think when you -- the way you want to think about it, meaningful revenue contribution happens really in the second half of the year, not so much in the first half of the year, and that's why this 1/3 and 2/3 is the reason why we feel pretty good about based on sort of the high-level growth number we're talking about for the full year. Andy?

    所以我認為,當你——按照你想的方式思考時,有意義的收入貢獻確實發生在下半年,而不是上半年,這就是為什麼這 1/3 和 2/ 3 是我們基於全年談論的高水平增長數字而感覺良好的原因。安迪?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And on the application side, Bill, we just got done a board meeting, and I can tell you, Jose Crespo, who runs our application business, feels that we don't include hydrogen in that business. But we feel pretty confident, probably just like some of the cryo business and the electrolyzer business that the funnel is there, the orders are there, and that 35% of our revenue will be associated with applications. Most of that material handling customers, mostly people we've done business with for a long time. So I think, in general, this was a rough quarter recalibrating customers to get through not doing PPAs anymore, so it took a little bit more time to get things closed.

    是的。在應用方面,比爾,我們剛剛召開了一次董事會會議,我可以告訴你,負責我們應用業務的何塞·克雷斯波(Jose Crespo)認為我們在該業務中不包括氫。但我們非常有信心,可能就像一些低溫業務和電解槽業務一樣,通路在那裡,訂單在那裡,我們 35% 的收入將與應用程式相關。大多數物料搬運客戶,大多是與我們有長期業務往來的人。因此,我認為,總的來說,這是一個艱難的季度,需要重新調整客戶以擺脫不再進行購電協議的情況,因此需要更多的時間才能完成工作。

  • Working through the price increases. But I feel good we've come out of it, Bill. So -- and so we feel we're -- we feel that pretty good about the year. And as Paul said, we're probably at 10%, 12% of the year. And that we've always said we expect revenue to increase this year.

    應對價格上漲。但我感覺很好,我們已經擺脫了困境,比爾。所以——所以我們覺得我們——我們對這一年感覺非常好。正如保羅所說,我們今年可能處於 10%、12% 的狀態。我們一直說我們預計今年的收入會增加。

  • William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

    William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks for the color and insights there. On the DOE loan -- conditional loan approval, it looks like this has been shifted out by around 1.5 months. I thought prior expectations were at the end of March. So I guess what is your latest expectation around timing, the feasibility of securing the loan this year? I guess also even especially ahead of a presidential election? And based off the press release, it sounds like you're thinking the DOE, the process could be waiting on additional, I guess, partners or project, equity investors. If you can explain more of why the delay and what the next steps are and what we should assume and think about for the full year -- for the year on this DOE loan?

    是的。感謝那裡的色彩和見解。在能源部貸款(有條件貸款批准)方面,看起來已經推遲了大約 1.5 個月。我以為之前的預期是在三月底。那麼我想您對今年獲得貸款的時間和可行性的最新期望是什麼?我想尤其是在總統選舉之前?根據新聞稿,聽起來你在考慮能源部,這個過程可能正在等待更多的,我猜,合作夥伴或專案、股權投資者。您能否更多地解釋為什麼延遲、下一步是什麼以及我們應該對全年——能源部貸款這一年——進行假設和思考什麼?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Bill, I may have confused you on that writing. That activity with equity investors is separated completely from the activity with the DOE. This activity we started as we think about making sure those projects are fully funded. Look, I remain really excited and I can tell you that the conditional commitment application is moving forward. The momentum is good. And boy, we really do hope to share more news soon.

    比爾,我的這篇文章可能會讓你感到困惑。與股權投資者的活動與與能源部的活動完全分開。我們開始這項活動是因為我們考慮確保這些計畫得到充分資助。看,我仍然非常興奮,我可以告訴你,有條件承諾申請正在推進。勢頭良好。天哪,我們真的希望盡快分享更多消息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自科林·魯施(Colin Rusch)和奧本海默(Oppenheimer)的對話。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • On the material handling side, could you talk about the trend lines on diversity of customers, how many more customers are you guys seeing? Are you seeing folks scale up within that business? Just trying to get a sense of what that opportunity set looks like now.

    在物料搬運方面,您能談談客戶多樣性的趨勢線嗎?您是否看到人們在該業務中擴大規模?只是想了解現在的機會集是什麼樣子。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. That's a good question, Colin. I can tell you that, we are doing 2 customers for the first time this coming quarter. Both of them probably have distribution centers combined, which are in the 150 type distribution range -- center range. brand new, brand new activity. Our penetration in the auto market continues to be really good. And we have worked through, and as I said, I think our value proposition as we've gone through these price increases have really shown that there was more opportunity for Plug.

    是的。這是個好問題,科林。我可以告訴你,下個季度我們將首次接待 2 位客戶。兩者可能都有聯合配送中心,屬於150型配送範圍-中心範圍。全新的,全新的活動。我們在汽車市場的滲透率仍然非常好。正如我所說,我們已經完成了這些價格上漲的工作,我認為我們的價值主張確實表明 Plug 擁有更多機會。

  • And I would expect -- I know what's in Jose's and Tim Terrill's funnel. You'll see continued customer expansion this year. And the next 3 quarters, you'll see us back to normal operation in material handling.

    我希望——我知道何塞和蒂姆·特里爾的漏斗裡有什麼。今年您將看到客戶持續擴張。在接下來的三個季度,您將看到我們的物料搬運恢復正常運作。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • And then my follow-up for Sanjay. As you guys are looking at the opportunity set for the electrolyzer business and doing site selection and then looking at the underlying cost structure, can you talk a little bit about your strategy around procurement of power? Obviously, there's a lot going on in the power markets right now with interconnection as well as data center demand electrification. Just want to understand where your thought process is right now on that procurement.

    然後是我對 Sanjay 的後續報導。當你們正在尋找電解槽業務的機會並進行選址,然後考慮潛在的成本結構時,你們能談談你們關於電力採購的策略嗎?顯然,目前電力市場在互連以及資料中心需求電氣化方面發生了很多事情。只是想了解您目前在採購方面的思考過程。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to hand that to Sanjay, but what you say is actually a big opportunity for our stationary business, Colin. That's right. So go ahead as well as our hydrogen business, but go ahead, Sanjay.

    我要把這個交給桑傑,但你所說的話實際上對我們的文具業務來說是一個巨大的機會,科林。這是正確的。因此,繼續我們的氫業務,但繼續吧,桑傑。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So Colin, I think as it relates to our customer mix, right? I think majority of the opportunity if we were to think about this basic engineering design packet, right, that we talked about 4.5-gigawatt, a lot of that is really going and displacing gray hydrogen in the refining industry to make green hydrogen. That's some of the opportunity. Second set of the opportunity there that you're seeing is really on sort of like sustainable aviation fuels, if you would, right, where they are really identifying a location where they can get access to low-cost power in the European market. So you can imagine, right, where you have a lot of hydro, where you can actually tap into some of the wind electricity with the low cost. That's where we're seeing some of this basic engineering design packet work.

    所以科林,我認為這與我們的客戶組合有關,對嗎?我認為,如果我們考慮這個基本工程設計包,我們談論的 4.5 吉瓦,其中很大一部分確實會取代煉油行業中的灰色氫來製造綠色氫。這就是一些機會。你看到的第二個機會實際上有點像可持續航空燃料,如果你願意的話,對吧,他們確實正在尋找一個可以在歐洲市場獲得低成本電力的地點。所以你可以想像一下,在擁有大量水電的地方,你實際上可以以低成本利用一些風電。這就是我們看到一些基本工程設計包工作的地方。

  • Another big opportunity in places like Australia, where you're actually talking about big solar farms, low-cost solar, and this is really more of a green ammonia opportunity to impact export into the Asian market, right? So one of the good things here, Colin, is as a company that now has the largest PEM electrolyzer running in the Western world, we're actually able to also work with our customers on things we have learned, what challenges we went through, how we can help them with that.

    澳洲等地的另一個巨大機會,實際上是在談論大型太陽能發電廠、低成本太陽能,這實際上更像是影響亞洲市場出口的綠色氨機會,對吧?因此,科林,這裡的一件好事是,作為一家現在擁有西方世界最大的 PEM 電解槽的公司,我們實際上還能夠與我們的客戶合作,研究我們學到的東西、我們經歷過的挑戰,我們如何幫助他們做到這一點。

  • And then we're looking at the customers win, who are the ones that actually have, as you rightfully pointed out, source of that power, the outlook for that offtake, whether it's going into the refining industry or going to the green ammonia market, going into the sustainable aviation fuel, you got to have the power, you got to have the land. You got to have the water. And that is what really gets you to that final investment decision, right? So -- and again, look, working hand-in-hand with them as a part of this [FEED] study really puts us in a very unique and a strong position to be able to collaborate with them and that's clearly the key criteria we use.

    然後我們會關注贏得的客戶,正如您正確指出的那樣,誰是真正擁有該電力來源的客戶,以及該電力的前景,無論是進入煉油行業還是進入綠色氨市場,進入可持續航空燃料,你必須擁有電力,你必須擁有土地。你得有水。這才是真正讓你做出最終投資決定的原因,對嗎?所以,再說一次,作為這項 [FEED] 研究的一部分,與他們攜手合作確實使我們處於一個非常獨特且強有力的位置,能夠與他們合作,這顯然是我們的關鍵標準使用。

  • At the end of the day, Colin, it's really about selling value here for our customers, right. Bringing all that to the table and it's not just about price versus cost. Are we bringing value that allows them to have that attractive levelized cost of hydrogen whereby a very attractive green ammonia as well as opportunity to be able to play in the refining industry.

    歸根結底,科林,這實際上是為我們的客戶銷售價值,對吧。將所有這些都擺到桌面上,這不僅僅是價格與成本的問題。我們是否能帶來價值,使他們能夠擁有有吸引力的氫氣平準化成本,從而獲得非常有吸引力的綠色氨以及能夠在煉油行業發揮作用的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Chris Dendrinos with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部門的 Chris Dendrinos。

  • Christopher J. Dendrinos - Assistant VP

    Christopher J. Dendrinos - Assistant VP

  • I guess I wanted to start out here just on the cash burn a little bit. And there is some decent sequential improvement as far as limiting the cash flow from ops [outs] end. So any color you can give around the cadence for the rest of the year? Should we expect kind of continued improvement from where we sit today? Just how should we think about that?

    我想我想從這裡開始,只是稍微燒點錢。就限制營運端的現金流而言,也有一些不錯的持續改善。那麼,您可以為今年剩餘時間的節奏提供任何顏色嗎?我們是否應該期望從今天的情況來看會持續改善?我們該如何思考這個問題呢?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes, we're obviously excited that we -- it's close to 40% reduction year-over-year in the first quarter. We've talked about the full year being in that 70% reduction. So -- and the reason why -- and that infers the second half is even bigger, right, in terms of that reduction. And the reason why that is, is for a couple of different reasons. One, the CapEx will be down year-over-year overall. But for the CapEx that we did plan for this year, it's a little bit heavier concentrated in the first half, but that will dissipate a lot obviously in the second half.

    是的。是的,我們顯然很興奮,第一季同比減少了近 40%。我們已經討論過全年將減少 70%。所以——以及原因——這意味著下半年的減少幅度更大,對吧。之所以會這樣,有幾個不同的原因。第一,資本支出整體將較去年同期下降。但對於我們今年計畫的資本支出來說,集中在上半年有點重,但下半年會明顯消散很多。

  • Second thing is that we anticipate -- and you already see it with the working capital getting better in the first quarter, but we anticipate even substantially more leverage opportunity in inventory, in particular, in the coming quarters and even more so in the second half. So that's a big contributor. And then the third thing is improving the margins and improving the cash flows in the business. And so scale will make a difference as we -- with 2/3 of sales happening in the second half. But the other factor that will make a big difference is the cost downs that we're driving.

    第二件事是我們預計 - 你已經看到第一季的營運資金會有所改善,但我們預計庫存方面的槓桿機會會大幅增加,特別是在未來幾個季度,在下半年更是如此。所以這是一個很大的貢獻者。第三件事是提高利潤率並改善業務現金流。因此,規模將對我們產生影響——2/3 的銷售額發生在下半年。但另一個產生重大影響的因素是我們正在推動的成本下降。

  • So we'll start to see more and more of the benefits and some of the actions we've taken in the first quarter and what we're completing in the second quarter. And then the impact to the fuel is pretty impactful in terms of the price increases and turning on these facilities that we're turning, which again will start to have benefit in Q2 and even more benefit in Q3 and Q4. So those are the drivers that we're laser focused on to improve it. And we're still optimistic that we're going to get to that 70% reduction year-over-year. So you should definitely see continued progression as we move through the year.

    因此,我們將開始看到越來越多的好處和我們在第一季採取的一些行動以及我們在第二季完成的工作。然後,就價格上漲和啟用我們正在啟用的這些設施而言,對燃料的影響相當大,這將再次開始在第二季度受益,甚至在第三季和第四季受益更多。因此,這些就是我們重點關注的驅動因素,以改善它。我們仍然樂觀地認為我們將實現同比減少 70%。因此,隨著這一年的推移,您肯定會看到持續的進展。

  • Christopher J. Dendrinos - Assistant VP

    Christopher J. Dendrinos - Assistant VP

  • Got it. And then I guess maybe just shifting gears here a little bit to the BEDP 4.5 gigawatts of opportunity. In the past, you guys have commented that the conversion rate on that type of activity is extremely high. I guess my question is, how -- what portion of those projects should we expect to kind of go forward? I guess, maybe historically, as you do the BEDP activity, what's the conversion rate on just the project actually moving forward into development?

    知道了。然後我想也許只是稍微改變一下 BEDP 4.5 吉瓦的機會。過去,你們評論說這類活動的轉換率非常高。我想我的問題是,我們應該如何推進這些專案的哪一部分?我想,也許從歷史上看,當您進行 BEDP 活動時,實際進入開發階段的專案的轉換率是多少?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • I think it's -- to put the precise number there, I think it's -- look, we probably want to go through some more time here. But let me give you an explanation of how we're thinking about it, right? So when we do a basic engineering design packet, that really gets a customer to a point where they can actually now go and do a final investment decision. That's the key thing here, right? They got to get to their FID. And the key for them to get to the FID is really going to come down to the entire facility. We're doing a very significant piece of that feed work related to the electrolyzer.

    我認為——把準確的數字放在那裡,我認為——看,我們可能想在這裡再花一些時間。但讓我向您解釋一下我們是如何考慮的,對吧?因此,當我們做一個基本的工程設計套件時,這確實讓客戶現在可以真正做出最終的投資決定。這是這裡的關鍵,對嗎?他們必須進行最終投資決策。他們獲得最終投資決定的關鍵實際上取決於整個設施。我們正在做與電解槽相關的進料工作中非常重要的部分。

  • We are obviously pretty much involved with the customer thinking about right design architecture, right? What it's really going to come down to is, for them, source of power, for them, offtake in terms of what product are they actually in fact, making from a hydrogen derivative standpoint. As we look at our BEDP funnel, we feel very good about some of them getting into that final investment decision this year. Many will get into final investment decision in 2025. So it's really all about building that base of business and that backlog throughout this year into next year, and really puts us in a position where it becomes a very substantial growth business for us, not just for 1 or 2 year but for many years to come and really a great visibility when you think about it for the -- until even really the end of this decade, if you would, right?

    顯然,我們與客戶一起思考正確的設計架構,對嗎?對他們來說,真正要歸結的是,從氫衍生物的角度來看,他們實際上生產的產品是什麼,是能源的來源。當我們查看 BEDP 漏斗時,我們對其中一些人今年做出最終投資決定感到非常滿意。許多人將在2025 年做出最終投資決定。而不僅僅是一兩年,但未來很多年,當你考慮到這一點時,這確實是一個很好的可見度——甚至直到這個十年結束,如果你願意的話,對吧?

  • So that's how we think about it rather than really trying to handicap 80% will move or 70% will move, we're really working with the customer in terms of making sure that they can get to their final investment decision. So we end up going from BEDP, in fact, new award bookings and, therefore, the backlog to really support our growth in the business.

    所以這就是我們的想法,而不是真正試圖阻礙 80% 的移動或 70% 的移動,我們真正與客戶合作,確保他們能夠做出最終的投資決定。因此,我們最終從 BEDP(實際上是新的獎勵預訂)和積壓訂單中獲得真正支持我們業務成長的能力。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • One of the items, Sanjay, that why I see it is so positive because it really is part of the sales cycle and you have the customer paying you to work with you, which shows a level of seriousness about their plans going forward. And that's probably from a business point of view, is one of the real values, I think, we're getting from these engagements.

    其中一個項目,桑傑,這就是為什麼我認為它如此積極,因為它確實是銷售週期的一部分,客戶付錢給你與你合作,這表明他們對未來計劃的認真程度。我認為,從商業角度來看,這可能是我們從這些合作中獲得的真正價值之一。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • 100%. Yes, absolutely.

    100%。是的,一點沒錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Craig Irwin with ROTH.

    我們的下一個問題來自克雷格歐文和羅斯的對話。

  • Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So most of my questions have actually been answered. So I want to step back into the bigger picture, right? You have some really exciting pedestal customers in the materials handling market, people using hydrogen forklifts. I guess, more than 40% of the groceries in America move around on your hydrogen forklifts. And I assume that there's several other companies of similar character to your pedestal customers that are evaluating the technology, maybe have small implementations and represent interesting longer-term opportunities.

    所以我的大部分問題實際上已經得到了解答。所以我想回到更大的視野,對嗎?在物料搬運市場上有一些非常令人興奮的基礎客戶,他們使用氫叉車。我猜,美國超過 40% 的雜貨都是用氫叉車運輸的。我認為還有其他幾家與您的基礎客戶具有相似特徵的公司正在評估該技術,可能有小型實施並代表有趣的長期機會。

  • Can you maybe sort of scope out for us what you're saying to those customers now with your repositioning of this business? Do you feel that you will be adding pedestal customers over the next few years? And anything else that you think would be useful for us to understand the longer-term trajectory after we get through this short-term repositioning?

    您能否為我們介紹一下您現在對這些客戶所說的話以及您對該業務的重新定位?您認為未來幾年您會增加固定客戶嗎?您認為在我們完成這次短期重新定位後,還有哪些內容對我們了解長期軌跡有用?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Craig, this is Andy. First and foremost, the answer to your question is yes. But to take it to a higher level, I can tell you we are doing deployments with 2 customers this quarter who have 150 warehouses and distribution centers, who we have never done business before. So that is -- and I can tell you, there is an active, active sales activity going on, and we expect material handling business to get back to normal starting in the second quarter and continuing throughout the year. I can tell you at Molex, which is the big material handling show, we probably had as much interest from new customers as we've seen any years.

    克雷格,這是安迪。首先,你的問題的答案是肯定的。但為了更進一步,我可以告訴你,本季我們正在與 2 個客戶進行部署,他們擁有 150 個倉庫和配送中心,這是我們以前從未與他們開展過業務的。所以,我可以告訴你,銷售活動正在進行中,我們預期物料搬運業務將從第二季開始恢復正常,並持續全年。我可以告訴您,在大型物料搬運展會 Molex 上,新客戶對我們的興趣可能與往年一樣高。

  • So we're -- especially here in the U.S., we're pretty -- we weren't -- had to go through this readjustment. We would have been even more focused in the first quarter, but boy, we're not -- we actually expect we'll be naming names over the coming year. So the answer to your question is yes, Craig. And look, while I look at our business, if you want to take a step back. Sanjay's activity in electrolyzers will become our dominant business probably in '25.

    所以我們——尤其是在美國,我們很好——我們不是——必須經歷這次調整。我們在第一季度會更加專注,但是天哪,我們沒有——我們實際上預計我們會在來年命名。所以你的問題的答案是肯定的,克雷格。聽著,當我審視我們的業務時,如果你想退後一步。 Sanjay 在電解槽方面的活動可能會在 25 年成為我們的主導業務。

  • And that -- because when you look at the growth rate and the amount of activity it has going on, and the material handling will become -- will remain a substantial portion of our business, and it will -- remains a driver of our hydrogen business. As I mentioned earlier in the call, by the end of the year, we expect to be using 30% more hydrogen than we did at the end of last year. So there is growth luckily, because of -- part of what we've gone through here, we've been able to see the value proposition stronger. And not only is there growth, but we think with hydrogen, we'll be close to breakeven by the end of the year. And so we see significant expansion of the business.

    因為當你看到成長率和正在進行的活動量時,材料處理將仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分,而且它將仍然​​是我們氫能的驅動力商業。正如我之前在電話會議中提到的,到今年年底,我們預計氫用量將比去年年底增加 30%。幸運的是,成長是存在的,因為我們在這裡經歷的部分事情,我們已經能夠看到更強大的價值主張。不僅有成長,而且我們認為有了氫,我們將在今年年底接近收支平衡。因此,我們看到業務顯著擴張。

  • Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Excellent. And then just 2 quick questions around green hydrogen. Do you maybe have a cumulative tons or some other metric that you can share on the production from Georgia and Tennessee? That would be really helpful for people to frame out how that ramp has gone. And then on green hydrogen, $18 a kilogram, I've talked to different people in the market, and there are suggestions that you can get quite a lot more than that for green hydrogen. So there may still be a little bit of an arbitrage if you can sell that in the open market. Can you maybe...

    出色的。然後是關於綠色氫的兩個簡單問題。您是否有可以分享喬治亞州和田納西州產量的累積噸數或其他一些指標?這對於人們了解斜坡的發展非常有幫助。然後,關於每公斤 18 美元的綠氫,我與市場上的不同人士交談過,有人建議您可以獲得比綠氫更多的價格。因此,如果你可以在公開市場上出售它,可能仍然存在一點套利。你能不能也許...

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to take the first part, and I'm going to let the analysts here beside me take the second part of that one. So as an operation guy, we're running Tennessee and Georgia at about 80%, 85% at the moment. When I look at -- we've been ramping -- we can't get to 100% capacity out. Logistically, you're probably -- just from an optimization point of view and delivery and logistics, we'll probably be running at 85%, pretty much the 90% all quarter. That's how we're kind of looking at it, Craig. We're not looking at 100% capacity.

    我將講第一部分,我將請我旁邊的分析師講第二部分。作為一名營運人員,我們目前正在以大約 80%、85% 的速度運營田納西州和喬治亞州。當我看到——我們一直在增加——我們無法達到 100% 的產能。從邏輯上講,您可能 - 僅從優化的角度以及交付和物流來看,我們可能會以 85% 的速度運行,幾乎整個季度的 90%。這就是我們的看法,克雷格。我們並不是考慮 100% 的容量。

  • But when I look at the flows the last 3 or 4 weeks, that's about where we are. So Sanjay, maybe you can talk about the arbitrage opportunity and how you're thinking about that?

    但當我查看過去 3、4 週的流量時,我們發現這就是我們所處的情況。 Sanjay,也許您可以談談套利機會以及您對此有何看法?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So Craig, you're absolutely right about that, right, given I think what we have done here in Georgia. So -- but look, our mission always has been to make sure that you keep driving the price of hydrogen to a level where it's a great value proposition for our end customer and not try to be more opportunistic if you would, right? Having said that, given our production capacity, given some of the discussion we're having, so there is clearly an opportunity for us to do a spot sale. We are having those discussions, live discussion with many players in the industry as we sit here right now, given that Georgia is now at, as Andy talked about it, capacity that it is. Tennessee is running at that 80%, 85% capacity, and we've got Louisiana coming online.

    所以克雷格,你的說法絕對正確,對吧,考慮到我們在喬治亞州所做的事情。所以,但是看,我們的使命始終是確保您繼續將氫的價格推高到對我們的最終客戶來說具有巨大價值主張的水平,而不是試圖變得更加投機,對嗎?話雖如此,考慮到我們的生產能力,考慮到我們正在進行的一些討論,所以我們顯然有機會進行現貨銷售。正如安迪所說,鑑於喬治亞州現在的容量已經達到了這樣的水平,我們現在正坐在這裡與業內許多參與者進行這些討論。田納西州正在以 80%、85% 的容量運行,路易斯安那州也已上線。

  • We know what we need internally. We know what's available. And those discussions we're having. And your logic there is absolutely a right one. And on this call, I probably don't want to quite get into the exact pricing number. But your point is very well taken. And yes, there is an arbitrage opportunity and that should absolutely help, especially as you think about Q4 of this year, really helping margin, growth, revenue and everything for our fuel business.

    我們知道我們內部需要什麼。我們知道有什麼可用的。以及我們正在進行的那些討論。而且你的邏輯絕對是正確的。在這次電話會議上,我可能不想透露確切的定價數字。但你的觀點得到了很好的理解。是的,有套利機會,這絕對有幫助,特別是當你考慮今年第四季時,這確實有助於我們燃料業務的利潤、成長、收入和一切。

  • Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Craig Irwin - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. Well, congratulations guys on some significant progress in a difficult period. You made a big difference in a number of items.

    偉大的。好吧,恭喜大家在困難時期取得了一些重大進展。你在很多方面都做出了巨大的改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of [Chris Sung] with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 [Chris Sung]。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • I wanted to just follow up, Andy, on a previous question clarifying the DOE loan. You don't need an equity investor for conditional commitment. But would you need investors or partners to reach a financial close?

    安迪,我想跟進之前澄清能源部貸款的問題。您不需要股權投資者來進行有條件承諾。但您是否需要投資者或合作夥伴才能完成財務交割?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • No.

    不。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes. No, that's helpful. And then can you perhaps remind us on the timing for receipt of proceeds from the DOE loan on receipt of the conditional commitment?

    是的。不,這很有幫助。那麼您能否提醒我們在收到有條件承諾後收到能源部貸款收益的時間?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Chris, I -- when I look at it, we want to keep you really informed about what's going on and the exciting developments ahead. It's important to recognize we have ongoing progress since -- we've really been teaming well with the DOE. And as I said earlier, we're really -- we have great forward momentum. And on all this, we really hope to share more information soon.

    克里斯,當我看到它時,我們希望讓您真正了解正在發生的事情以及未來令人興奮的發展。重要的是要認識到我們自那時以來一直在取得進展,我們確實與能源部合作良好。正如我之前所說,我們確實擁有巨大的前進動力。關於這一切,我們真的希望盡快分享更多資訊。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. And I guess my final question is on the volumes or spot volumes that you could probably sell into once Louisiana comes along. Can you perhaps quantify how much you would be able to sell.

    好的。很公平。我想我的最後一個問題是一旦路易斯安那州出現,您可能會出售的數量或現貨數量。您能否量化一下您能賣多少錢?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Maybe take a shot at that, Sanjay?

    也許可以嘗試一下,桑傑?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Based on our ongoing discussion right now, we anticipate it could be somewhere in that 10 tons per day kind of a neighborhood.

    根據我們目前正在進行的討論,我們預計它可能位於每天 10 噸的附近地區。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Jordan Levy with Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jordan Levy 和 Truist Securities 的電話。

  • Jordan Levy - Research Analyst

    Jordan Levy - Research Analyst

  • Appreciate all the details. Maybe for Sanjay here. On the electrolyzer sales side, I think you touched on this, and I appreciate there's a lot of complexity in the sales process and shipment process there. But maybe just to take a step back, given some of the commissioning delays and that sort of thing. Can you just comment on sort of the overall visibility of that segment? And what might give you confidence in that visibility improving through the next quarter and the remainder of the year?

    欣賞所有細節。也許對於桑傑來說。在電解槽銷售方面,我認為您談到了這一點,並且我意識到那裡的銷售流程和運輸流程非常複雜。但考慮到一些調試延誤之類的事情,也許只是退後一步。您能否評論一下該細分市場的整體可見度?是什麼讓您對下一季和今年剩餘時間內可見度的改善充滿信心?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • I mean, Jordan, as we touched on this a bit, right, for 2024, this is really about executing on our existing backlog, right? So we are executing on over 25 5-megawatt system. We have over 25 1-megawatt system. We are executing on multiple 100-megawatt large-scale projects. So it's really execute, execute and execute again, right? So that's the theme for electrolyzer business for 2024.

    我的意思是,Jordan,正如我們稍微談到的那樣,對於 2024 年,這實際上是關於執行我們現有的積壓工作,對吧?因此,我們正在超過 25 個 5 兆瓦系統上執行。我們擁有超過 25 個 1 兆瓦系統。我們正在執行多個100兆瓦的大型專案。所以它真的是執行、執行、再執行,對嗎?這就是 2024 年電解槽業務的主題。

  • Now another piece here also is, look, I mean, we are doing a lot of installation. We're operating in so many different countries and continent, if you would. And specification, requirements, all the different things that goes on from the site acceptance tests tend to vary from location to location. And this is something we're learning along with our customers. And frankly speaking, as we're launching the product, getting into this rapid ramp mode, there's been a lot of learnings and some of these have taken a bit longer than we anticipated, which is why we've got the Q1. Some of that is shifting into Q2. Some of the Q2 likely goes also into Q3.

    現在這裡的另一件事也是,看,我的意思是,我們正在做很多安裝。如果您願意的話,我們在許多不同的國家和大陸開展業務。規範、要求以及現場驗收測試中發生的所有不同事情往往因地點而異。這是我們正在與客戶一起學習的東西。坦白說,當我們推出產品,進入這種快速提升模式時,我們學到了很多東西,其中一些花費的時間比我們預期的要長一些,這就是我們推出 Q1 的原因。其中一些將轉移到第二季。第二季的一部分可能也會進入第三季。

  • But as we get enough systems installed here in Q2, this also helps us from being able to actually do a transfer of the title to the customer even before we complete the entire site acceptance test, makes it even easier from the revenue recognition perspective, right? So that's why from a cadence standpoint, we feel pretty good about it. Look, there's a lot of work that the entire team is doing, we're very proud of everything that they do on an everyday basis to make sure that this is all happening. You should expect that there is going to be a pretty big sequential growth in Q2 and another one in Q3, and it should really be a pretty meaningful year for our electrolyzer business in 2024.

    但是,隨著我們在第二季度安裝了足夠的系統,這也有助於我們在完成整個現場驗收測試之前就能夠將所有權實際轉移給客戶,從收入確認的角度來看,這變得更加容易,對吧?這就是為什麼從節奏的角度來看,我們對此感覺非常好。看,整個團隊正在做很多工作,我們為他們每天所做的一切感到非常自豪,以確保這一切發生。您應該預期第二季和第三季將出現相當大的環比成長,2024 年對於我們的電解槽業務來說確實應該是非常有意義的一年。

  • Beyond that, you should also expect based on this BEDP new bookings materializing, setting the stage for '25, '26 and beyond as all this BEDP work that we're doing with our customers working hand-in-hand gets into that final investment decision.

    除此之外,您還應該期待基於此 BEDP 新預訂的實現,為 25 年、26 年及以後奠定基礎,因為我們與客戶攜手合作的所有 BEDP 工作都將納入最終投資決定。

  • Jordan Levy - Research Analyst

    Jordan Levy - Research Analyst

  • Got it. Appreciate that. And a separate topic, a quick follow-up. On the $40 million in write-downs, you referenced in the release, I know we'll get more details on that in the Q. But just wondering if we should expect those to kind of continue through the year or moving on that?

    知道了。感謝。還有一個單獨的主題,快速跟進。關於您在新聞稿中提到的 4000 萬美元的減記,我知道我們會在問題中獲得更多詳細信息。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. A lot of that is labor and overhead in the plants. When you have a lower level of production activities and sales activities, you just don't get the opportunity to absorb as much. And so there may be a little bit of that in Q2 as we continue to ramp and scale. We expect it to dissipate tremendously in the second half as we move towards substantially more sales activity and more production. There are also another favorable counter to that is that the continued progress in the cost downs. And so you have both effects happening, which is we're reducing costs and we're increasing absorption by producing more and selling more. So I think that you'll see that trend down substantially as we move through the year.

    是的。其中很大一部分是工廠的勞動力和管理費用。當你的生產活動和銷售活動水平較低時,你就沒有機會吸收那麼多。因此,隨著我們繼續擴大規模,第二季可能會出現一些這樣的情況。我們預計,隨著我們的銷售活動和產量大幅增加,這種情況將在下半年大幅消散。另一個有利的反作用是成本下降的持續進展。因此,兩種效應都會發生,即我們正在降低成本,並且我們透過生產更多和銷售更多來增加吸收。因此,我認為隨著這一年的推移,您會看到這種趨勢大幅下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Ameet Thakkar with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ameet Thakkar。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • You've got [Ryan] on here for Ameet. So I was just wondering if you guys would be able to provide an update on where the cash balance is today? And sort of along those lines, like if you're planning to provide an interim update on the issuance under the ATM program since the last update at the end of February? Just if you tap out at all this current quarter.

    [Ryan] 正在為阿米特服務。所以我只是想知道你們是否能夠提供有關今天現金餘額的最新資訊?類似地,就像您是否計劃提供自 2 月底上次更新以來 ATM 計劃下的發行情況的臨時更新?只要您在本季全部退出即可。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Obviously, we're going to be filing our Q today. So there'll be 100 pages of detail that will have a lot of that in there. But I'd say roughly -- what you'll see is roughly $150 million that we raised as disclosed in the Q. And that's where we sit through today. We -- I will share with you -- this wasn't part of your question, but I'll share this. We're laser-focused on debt solutions. I mean we've been working that conversation for a long time. We've got a couple of parties that we're closer to that than we've ever been under terms that are things that -- our biggest challenge today is it's just been in finding terms that we feel like are meaningful and helpful for us, where we're going.

    是的。顯然,我們今天要提交問題。所以會有 100 頁的詳細信息,裡面有很多內容。但我粗略地說,您將看到我們在問詢中披露的籌集的大約 1.5 億美元。我們——我將與你分享——這不是你問題的一部分,但我會分享這一點。我們專注於債務解決方案。我的意思是我們已經進行了很長時間的對話。我們有幾個政黨比以往任何時候都更接近這個目標——我們今天最大的挑戰是找到我們認為對我們有意義和有幫助的條款,我們要去哪裡。

  • But these are 2 parties that we feel extremely well about and have done a lot of diligence and know them very well, and we'll see whether that manifests into conclusion. But that's our primary -- it has been and it continues to be my primary focus is finding debt solutions that could fund the balance of our burn, which if you do the math, it means we're -- in terms of the total context of the 70% reduction off the last year, in terms of what we need, we're more than halfway of that capital sourcing.

    但我們對這兩方的感覺非常好,並且做了很多努力並且非常了解他們,我們將看看這是否會得出結論。但這是我們的首要任務 - 過去是,而且仍然是我的主要重點是尋找債務解決方案,為我們的燒錢餘額提供資金,如果你算一下,這意味著我們 - 就總體情況而言與去年相比減少了70%,就我們的需求而言,我們已經完成了一半以上的資金來源。

  • So the need will start to dissipate a lot, which is helpful. But -- and progress that we continue to show is putting us in a better and better position for sourcing that capital. So hopefully, that helps provide a little bit of color on how we think about it.

    因此,需求將開始大量消散,這是有幫助的。但是,我們不斷取得的進展使我們在獲取資金方面處於越來越有利的地位。希望這有助於為我們的思考方式提供一點色彩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯佩科科。

  • Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Equity Analyst

  • I guess my first question is a little bit higher level and coming back to I think Colin's question before on just power procurement strategies. And I think I've asked this before, but the market seems to be evolving pretty quickly. AI power demand, there's a lot of demand for clean power. It seems like we're pretty constricted in terms of how much supply we can bring to market, at least in the U.S. And your business is very much dependent on low PPA prices. So that supply-demand imbalance has been pushing up PPA prices, at least in the U.S.

    我想我的第一個問題的等級有點高,回到我認為科林之前關於電力採購策略的問題。我想我以前曾問過這個問題,但市場似乎發展得很快。 AI電力需求,對清潔電力有大量需求。看來我們能夠向市場供應的供應量相當有限,至少在美國是如此。因此,供需失衡一直在推高購電協議價格,至少在美國是如此。

  • I'm just curious, can you just provide a little bit more context in terms of how you're thinking about power procurement for your additional green hydrogen facilities in the U.S. beyond Texas and New York, which obviously already have offtake agreements signed?

    我只是很好奇,您能否提供更多背景信息,說明您如何考慮為美國德克薩斯州和紐約州以外的其他綠色氫設施進行電力採購,這些設施顯然已經簽署了承購協議?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Sanjay.

    繼續吧,桑傑。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So look, I think we've actually had this conversation on our last call as well, right? So this has obviously been a very core to our strategy in terms of identifying the location. And as you can imagine, it's going to be really region-by-region basis, right, in terms of where do you want to go, how do you want to [allocate], where do you want to put the plant. When we think about building this green hydrogen generation network, not just the plant, but the network in North America, we've always said we want to go to a location where there is going to be either an existing player we can work with that's pretty far along from a development standpoint that can provide us with that green electron at a price where economics make sense, right?

    所以看,我想我們在上次通話中實際上也進行過這樣的對話,對嗎?因此,這顯然是我們確定位置策略的核心。正如你可以想像的那樣,這將是真正的逐個地區的基礎,對吧,就你想去哪裡,你想如何[分配],你想把工廠放在哪裡。當我們考慮建造這個綠色氫發電網絡時,不僅僅是工廠,而是北美的網絡,我們總是說我們想要去一個可以與我們合作的現有參與者的地方距離能夠以經濟合理的價格為我們提供綠色電子的發展觀點還相去甚遠,對嗎?

  • And in that green electron, you should think about, obviously, solar, wind complemented with nuclear and hydro. That's how we think about it, right? And today, as you rightfully pointed out, Georgia, pricing is looking pretty attractive for us. New York, we're getting a lot of hydro allocation for that. Texas, I'm glad we signed the PPA, what we did based on some of the comments you're making. So we -- you should think about this as like we're looking at the West Coast, where we believe that you can actually get some hydro as well as solar power in terms of the location of where we build the next plant from a network standpoint -- that we're also looking at an opportunity in the middle of the country where you might be able to access low-cost attractive nuclear power.

    顯然,在綠色電子中,你應該考慮太陽能、風能以及核能和水力發電。我們就是這麼想的,對吧?今天,正如您正確指出的那樣,喬治亞州,定價對我們來說看起來相當有吸引力。紐約,我們為此獲得了大量的水電分配。德克薩斯州,我很高興我們簽署了購電協議,我們是根據您提出的一些評論所做的。所以我們——你應該像我們在西海岸一樣思考這個問題,我們相信,就我們從網絡建設下一個工廠的位置而言,你實際上可以獲得一些水力發電和太陽能發電我們的觀點是——我們還在該國中部尋找機會,在那裡您可能能夠獲得低成本、有吸引力的核電。

  • We're also looking at somewhere between that middle of the country in the West Coast, where they are really doing a lot of solar, wind development as well in that region. Don't be surprised if there is a plant #2 and 3 in Texas as well. We can obviously always expand our existing footprint and the presence in Georgia as well. But look, I mean, I think on this power pricing, given everything that's going on, you are right, there is probably some inflationary pressure here. But let's not forget, right, as the supply chain comes back in line, as the rates do what they do, levelized cost of electricity, it's not just one-faceted situation, right?

    我們也正在關注西海岸中部地區的某個地方,他們確實在該地區進行了大量的太陽能、風能開發。如果德州也有 2 號和 3 號工廠,請不要感到驚訝。顯然,我們始終可以擴大我們現有的足跡以及在喬治亞州的業務。但是你看,我的意思是,我認為在這個電價方面,考慮到正在發生的一切,你是對的,這裡可能存在一些通膨壓力。但我們不要忘記,隨著供應鏈恢復正常,隨著電費的作用,電力成本的平準化,這不僅僅是單方面的情況,對吧?

  • You've got a variety of different things. And directionally, it should continue to go down while there might be some disruption on a short-term basis, and this is a long game at the end of the day, right? If there is a situation where the power prices went up over the next 6 months, we will more likely wait to make sure that it is normalized before we really go down the path of doing anything. But today, for us to accomplish what we're looking to accomplish, we certainly have tentacles in a lot of different locations where we don't feel like there is any need to change our strategy in terms of what we're trying to do. Would you like to add anything there?

    你有各種各樣不同的東西。從方向上看,它應該會繼續下跌,同時短期內可能會出現一些幹擾,這歸根結底是一場漫長的遊戲,對嗎?如果未來6個月出現電價上漲的情況,我們更有可能等到其正常化後再真正採取行動。但今天,為了實現我們想要實現的目標,我們肯定在許多不同的地方都有觸角,我們認為沒有必要改變我們正在嘗試做的事情的策略。您想在那裡添加什麼嗎?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I would just say that if you listen to Craig's comments and questions, you listen to what the price we're paying in Georgia, what the price we're paying in Texas, what the price we'll pay in New York, I think it's incredible differential advantage that we already have these contracts in place to allow us to do future -- for our future expansions over the next couple of years. So I actually think it makes me feel pretty good.

    是的。我只想說,如果你聽克雷格的評論和問題,你就會聽我們在喬治亞州付出的代價,我們在德克薩斯州付出的代價,我們在紐約付出的代價,我想這是令人難以置信的差異化優勢,我們已經擁有這些合同,使我們能夠在未來幾年內進行未來的擴張。所以我實際上認為這讓我感覺很好。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Andy, this is one of the key benefits of [first move].

    安迪,這是[第一步]的主要好處之一。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Understood. I guess just to follow up on that, do you have any excess power supply kind of bank already or transmission access bank already or for additional projects beyond Texas and New York or would you be kind of starting from scratch on those additional facilities?

    知道了。明白了。我想,為了跟進這個問題,您是否已經擁有多餘的電力供應類型銀行或傳輸接入銀行,或者是否有德克薩斯州和紐約州以外的其他項目,或者您是否會從頭開始建造這些額外設施?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So we've been in this development journey now for over 3 years, Andrew, right? So nothing is really for us in terms of what we're thinking about the new build and the new opportunities starting from scratch, right? Now having said that, have we secured a PPA for opportunity in the West Coast? Look, I mean, this is -- depends on what kind of power you're looking to get. What kind of opportunity you're looking to get, right? You can think about California, you can think about Arizona, right. Arizona is probably the likely location where we're really trying to figure out what's the best model that works.

    Andrew,我們的開發之旅已經持續了 3 年多了,對嗎?因此,就我們對新建築和從頭開始的新機會的思考而言,沒有什麼真正適合我們,對嗎?話雖如此,我們是否已在西海岸獲得了購電協議?聽著,我的意思是,這取決於你想要獲得什麼樣的力量。您希望獲得什麼樣的機會,對嗎?你可以想想加州,你可以想想亞利桑那州,對吧。亞利桑那州可能是我們真正試圖找出最有效的模型的地方。

  • So like in case of Georgia, we already have additional power allocation if we wanted to expand that capacity. Texas, you know very well. There are reasons in Texas where you can still get fully attractive renewable electricity, right? So nothing is from scratch, but in that, the level of activity, I wouldn't say is completely buttoned up, but it's far along enough that it really gives us a view on multiple new plans, where we think what our input cost is going to look like that really gives us that arbitrage and the profit margin opportunity while continuing to drive the cost of hydrogen there.

    因此,就像喬治亞州的情況一樣,如果我們想擴大容量,我們已經有了額外的電力分配。德州,你很清楚。在德克薩斯州,您仍然可以獲得完全有吸引力的可再生電力,對吧?因此,沒有什麼是從頭開始的,但在這一點上,活動水平,我不會說是完全固定的,但它已經足夠遠了,它確實讓我們對多個新計劃有了一個看法,我們認為我們的投入成本是多少看起來這確實為我們帶來了套利和利潤率的機會,同時繼續推高氫的成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Amit Dayal 和 H.C.溫賴特。

  • Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

    Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Yes. I mean, just have some adjacent questions to things already discussed. Starting with maybe the sales mix for this year. Excluding fuels and other services, just on the equipment side, material handling versus other hardware offerings for '24, what the sales mix would look like? And then how that changes in '25 and '26?

    是的。我的意思是,只是有一些與已經討論過的事情相關的問題。從今年的銷售組合開始。不包括燃料和其他服務,僅在設備方面,物料搬運與 24 世紀其他硬體產品相比,銷售組合會是什麼樣子?那麼在 25 年和 26 年情況會發生怎樣的變化呢?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Paul, I'll take an initial shot at this, and I'll let you answer. I would expect about 1/3 of our business or 35% will be material handling, probably about 30% will be electrolyzers, probably 10% to 15% hydrogen and the remaining will be associated with liquefaction and other cryo business.

    所以保羅,我將對此進行初步嘗試,然後我會讓你回答。我預計我們業務的大約 1/3 或 35% 將是材料處理,可能大約 30% 將是電解器,可能 10% 到 15% 是氫氣,其餘的將與液化和其他低溫業務相關。

  • Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

    Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Understood. And does this remain similar in 2025? Or do you see sort of other parts of the business outside material handling like ramping more aggressively?

    明白了。到 2025 年,情況還會如此嗎?或者您認為物料搬運以外的業務其他部分(例如更積極地擴張)?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think, Amit, we think electrolyzers will be the biggest part of our business come 2025. And that I would expect our liquefaction business to grow in '25 to be a larger percentage.

    是的。我認為,阿米特,我們認為到 2025 年電解槽將成為我們業務的最大組成部分。

  • Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

    Amit Dayal - MD of Equity Research & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe for Paul -- yes, so maybe for Paul, just from an operating cost perspective, Paul, like what should we sort of assume on a quarterly basis going forward, 2Q onwards for the rest of 2024?

    好的。然後也許對保羅來說 - 是的,所以也許對保羅來說,僅從運營成本的角度來看,保羅,就像我們應該在未來的季度基礎上假設什麼,從 2024 年第二季度開始?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So our OpEx run rate, we expect from last year to this year to be down for a host of reasons. And one of the biggest drivers is the cost reductions that we've been focused on. A lot of the things we did in Q1 will benefit that. So I would -- I think a good proxy is about, let's call it, $120 million to $125 million on a quarterly run rate going on through the balance of the year.

    是的。因此,我們預計從去年到今年,我們的營運支出運行率會因多種原因而下降。最大的推動因素之一是我們一直在關注的成本降低。我們在第一季所做的很多事情都將有利於這一點。所以我想——我認為一個好的代理商是,我們可以這樣稱呼它,在今年剩餘時間的季度運行率是 1.2 億到 1.25 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next questions come from the line of Skye Landon with Redburn Atlantic.

    我們的下一個問題來自斯凱·蘭登 (Skye Landon) 與雷德本大西洋 (Redburn Atlantic) 的路線。

  • Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

    Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

  • Firstly, we recently had the results from the EU Hydrogen bank auction where we saw what were lower-than-expected winning bids. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the results because on one hand, it's great to have a low figure as this kind of provides higher electrolyzer capacities. But on the other end of things potentially adds more risk to projects reaching FID. So do you think the subsidy is enough? Or would you actually prefer to see a higher subsidy level but with less capacity awarded? And then related to this, if you could provide any commentary on your involvement with any of the winning bids and projects there, that would be great as well.

    首先,我們最近獲得了歐盟氫銀行拍賣的結果,我們看到中標價格低於預期。我很想聽聽您對結果的看法,因為一方面,數字較低是很好的,因為這種類型可以提供更高的電解槽容量。但另一方面,可能會為專案達到最終投資決定增加更多風險。那你覺得補貼夠嗎?或者您實際上更願意看到更高的補貼水平但授予的容量更少?與此相關的是,如果您能對您參與其中任何中標和項目的情況提供任何評論,那就太好了。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I would just say, Skye, yes, we would have liked to see the prices higher. Sanjay, you've been involved and maybe you can talk about our customers. I know some of our customers were successful.

    我只想說,斯凱,是的,我們希望看到價格更高。 Sanjay,您參與其中,也許您可以談論我們的客戶。我知道我們的一些客戶取得了成功。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Some of our customers have, but I think, Andy, this is still an evolving process. So I think look, we'd love to talk, as you rightfully pointed out, right, I think this is an evolving process. Look, I think like an energy industry, subsidies should be fair even to every piece of the energy industry. So we want to see how it all unfolds and maybe not get into the customer specifically at this point in time.

    我們的一些客戶已經這樣做了,但我認為,安迪,這仍然是一個不斷發展的過程。所以我認為,我們很樂意談談,正如您正確指出的那樣,我認為這是一個不斷發展的過程。看,我認為就像能源產業一樣,補貼應該對能源產業的每個部分都是公平的。因此,我們想看看這一切是如何展開的,也許目前還沒有專門接觸客戶。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think that probably is helpful. I know that doesn't help you. But Skye, I think that is -- I think that's the general consensus of us in the hydrogen industry.

    是的。我認為這可能會有幫助。我知道這對你沒有幫助。但是斯凱,我認為這是我們氫產業的普遍共識。

  • Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

    Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

  • Fair enough. No. That's good color. And then maybe on the 20 electrolyzer systems that you're currently, I guess, commissioning's currently undergoing on. Are you able to put a capacity figure on this? And then also, while I'm sure there's differences on a project-by-project basis, can you share a little bit more about the process involved to kind of get the site acceptance and the process of getting some of the equipment sites and a process that needs to go through in order to actually reach revenue recognition? Just so that we can get a bit more clarity around exactly how this works.

    很公平。不,這個顏色很好。我想,也許你們目前正在進行調試的 20 個電解槽系統。你能給出一個容量數據嗎?另外,雖然我確信每個項目之間存在差異,但您能否分享更多有關獲得現場驗收所涉及的過程以及獲得一些設備場地和項目的過程?這樣我們就可以更清楚地了解它是如何運作的。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Absolutely. And look, and this is something we've obviously been spending a lot of time and very fair question, Skye, right? So the breakdown here of all this commissioning effort that's going on it, it's actually -- there's over 20 5-megawatt system, okay? And just to put that in context. All of that is not Q2, it's throughout the year. But there's over 20 5-megawatt system that we're actually going through commissioning phases, making sure that the customers are ready, and there's over 20 1-megawatt system. And as we just touched on it, right, there is also some large-scale projects that are continuing to go through fabrication, enough work, rectifiers and things like that.

    絕對地。看,這顯然是我們花費了大量時間和非常公平的問題,斯凱,對吧?因此,所有正在進行的調試工作的詳細情況實際上是——有超過 20 個 5 兆瓦的系統,好嗎?只是將其放在上下文中。所有這些都不是第二季度,而是全年。但實際上有超過 20 個 5 兆瓦系統正在經歷調試階段,以確保客戶做好準備,還有超過 20 個 1 兆瓦系統。正如我們剛剛談到的那樣,還有一些大型專案正在繼續進行製造、足夠的工作、整流器和類似的事情。

  • But here is the key when it comes to going from -- so you've got a couple of process, right? You do a factory acceptance test. When the system leads the factory. And you don't -- depending on the situation, sometimes you produce how much hydrogen is produced in that factory acceptance test depends on whether it's a 1-megawatt system versus a 5-megawatt system. And the key to actually get the site acceptance test is make sure that you have staff performance buttoned up in terms of what the turndown of that stack needs to be like, make sure that all the compliance and the documents are ready to go, that's another piece.

    但這是關鍵——所以你有幾個過程,對嗎?您進行工廠驗收測試。當系統引導工廠。而且你不會 - 根據具體情況,有時工廠驗收測試中產生的氫氣量取決於它是 1 兆瓦系統還是 5 兆瓦系統。真正獲得現場驗收測試的關鍵是確保您的員工績效能夠滿足堆疊的關閉需要,確保所有合規性和文件都已準備就緒,這是另一回事片。

  • And finally, what it really comes down is have you produced enough hydrogen at the specification for that site. And that's really the final piece before we do the handover and say, all right, we've completed the site acceptance test. That's really what it comes down to.

    最後,真正的問題是您是否按照該地點的規格生產了足夠的氫氣。這實際上是我們進行移交之前的最後一步,好吧,我們已經完成了現場驗收測試。歸根結底就是這樣。

  • Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

    Skye Wreford Landon - Research Analyst

  • Just a follow up on that. Would it be fair to say that some of these -- some of the sort of delays in commissioning is on the customer side of things as well rather than just on Plug Power side of things?

    只是對此的後續行動。可以公平地說,其中一些調試延遲也發生在客戶方面,而不僅僅是 Plug Power 方面嗎?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Look, we always work hand-in-hand with customers, right? But the customer's site also has to be ready. It's not just our commissioning team and everything we do. You're absolutely right about that. And look, there are some situation where some of those sites could end up in Q3 rather than Q2, but we have tremendous activities going on where the customer is also ready. And the team is really working hand-in-hand with them to make sure that we can do the handover and get the site acceptance tests done. But you are right. In some cases, there are things that customers' needs to do as well.

    你看,我們總是與客戶攜手合作,對嗎?但客戶的網站也必須準備好。這不僅僅是我們的調試團隊和我們所做的一切。你說得完全正確。看,在某些情況下,其中一些網站可能會在第三季而不是第二季結束,但我們正在進行大量活動,客戶也已做好準備。團隊確實與他們攜手合作,以確保我們能夠完成移交並完成現場驗收測試。但你是對的。在某些情況下,客戶也需要做一些事情。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So, I'm going to close it out. I want to thank everyone for joining us today. I look forward to discussions with our analysts throughout the quarter. And look, the foundations, I walked Georgia, I walked Louisiana. I have over of our factories with one of our key partners to help us build these hydrogen plants in Rochester, and no one has the infrastructure, the customer relationships, the vision for this industry that I believe that Plug has. I think it's a real differential advantage. It's been a tough 4 or 5 months. But we're moving in the right direction.

    所以,我要關閉它。我要感謝大家今天加入我們。我期待在整個季度與我們的分析師進行討論。看,基金會,我走過了喬治亞州,我走過了路易斯安那州。我與我們的主要合作夥伴之一一起接管了我們的工廠,幫助我們在羅徹斯特建造這些氫工廠,但沒有人擁有我認為普拉格擁有的基礎設施、客戶關係和對這個行業的願景。我認為這是真正的差異化優勢。這四、五個月過得很辛苦。但我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

  • So I look forward to our engagements throughout the quarter and throughout the year. So thank you, everyone, for joining the call.

    因此,我期待著我們整個季度和全年的合作。謝謝大家加入這次電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。享受你一天剩下的時間。