寶潔 (PG) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。

P&G would like to remind you that today's discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements.

寶潔公司謹提醒您，今天的討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。

If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

Additionally, the company has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP and other financial measures.

此外，該公司還在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非公認會計準則和其他財務指標的全面核對錶​​。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Moeller.

現在我將把電話轉交給寶潔公司副董事長兼財務長 Jon Moeller。

Good morning.

早安.

We'll keep the prepared remarks fairly brief today, reflecting a fairly straightforward quarter and the upcoming Deutsche Bank conference in Paris.

今天我們準備的發言將保持相當簡短，以反映一個相當簡單的季度和即將在巴黎舉行的德意志銀行會議。

We'll provide result headlines, comment briefly on strategic focus areas and update guidance for the fiscal year before turning to your questions.

在回答您的問題之前，我們將提供結果標題、對策略重點領域進行簡要評論並更新本財年的指導。

January-March top line growth was strong with organic sales growing 5% driven by volume, pricing and mix.

1 月至 3 月的營收成長強勁，在銷售、定價和產品組合的推動下，有機銷售成長了 5%。

8 of 10 categories grew organic sales.

10 個類別中有 8 個類別實現有機銷售額成長。

Skin & Personal Care grew again in the teens; Feminine Care and Home Care, high singles; Fabric Care, Family Care, Hair Care, Oral Care and Personal Health Care each grew mid-single digits.

皮膚和個人護理品在青少年時期再次增長；女性護理和家庭護理，高單品；織物護理、家庭護理、頭髮護理、口腔護理和個人保健均實現中個位數成長。

We delivered strong organic sales growth in our 2 largest markets: the U.S., up 4%; China, up 11%.

我們在 2 個最大市場實現了強勁的有機銷售成長：美國成長 4%；中國，上漲11%。

Organic growth was broad-based, equal to or ahead of year ago in 13 of our top 15 markets with all 6 geographic regions growing organic sales 5 up mid-single digits or more.

在我們排名前 15 的市場中，有 13 個市場的有機成長基礎廣泛，與去年同期持平或領先，其中所有 6 個地理區域的有機銷售額增長了 5 個中個位數或更多。

E-commerce organic sales grew more than 20%.

電子商務有機銷售額成長超過 20%。

Market share trends remain strong.

市佔率趨勢依然強勁。

33 of our top 50 country category combinations holding or growing value share of fiscal year-to-date, up from 26 last fiscal year, 23 in fiscal '17 and 17 in fiscal '16.

在我們排名前50 名的國家類別組合中，有33 個在本財年迄今持有或不斷增長價值份額，高於上一財年的26 個，17 財年有23 個，16 財年有17個。

Some challenges do remain with Grooming and Baby Care each down low singles.

美容和嬰兒護理方面確實仍然存在一些挑戰。

In total, though, consumption, volume, sales and shares, each progressing nicely.

但總的來說，消費、銷售、銷售額和份額都進展順利。

In addition to very strong sales growth, we delivered strong constant currency earnings growth.

除了非常強勁的銷售成長之外，我們還實現了強勁的恆定貨幣收益成長。

Core earnings per share was $1.06, up 6% versus the prior year.

每股核心收益為 1.06 美元，比上年增長 6%。

Foreign exchange was a $245 million after-tax earnings headwind, about $0.09 per share.

外匯交易對稅後收益造成 2.45 億美元的不利影響，約合每股 0.09 美元。

So on a constant currency basis, core earnings per share were up 15%.

因此，以固定匯率計算，每股核心收益成長了 15%。

The effective tax rate for the quarter came in around 15.5% due partly to favorable settlement of prior period audits.

本季的有效稅率約為 15.5%，部分原因是前期審計的有利結算。

A portion of this benefit was initially expected in the April to June period.

最初預計該效益的一部分將在 4 月至 6 月期間實現。

The tax rate also reflects benefits from higher actual tax deductions on stock option exercises versus deferred taxes booked through option vesting.

稅率也反映了與透過選擇權歸屬登記的遞延稅相比，股票選擇權行使的實際稅收扣除更高的好處。

Core gross margin improved sequentially to flat versus year ago despite FX and commodity cost headwinds.

儘管有外匯和大宗商品成本不利因素，但核心毛利率仍較上年同期持平。

On a currency-neutral basis, core gross margin increased 60 basis points.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心毛利率成長了 60 個基點。

SG&A costs as a percentage of sales were up versus a year ago driven in part by the addition of Merck, including temporary integration costs.

SG&A 成本佔銷售額的百分比較上年同期有所上升，部分原因是默克公司的加入，包括臨時整合成本。

For the balance of the company, SG&A as a percentage of sales increased modestly due to increased traditional, digital and social media investments.

就公司的平衡而言，由於傳統、數位和社群媒體投資的增加，SG&A佔銷售額的百分比略有增加。

On a constant currency basis, core operating profit grew 7%.

以固定匯率計算，核心營業利潤成長 7%。

On top of the sales and earnings growth, cash flow remains strong with free cash flow productivity of 100%.

除了銷售額和獲利成長之外，現金流依然強勁，自由現金流生產力為 100%。

$3.1 billion of cash was returned to shareowners, approximately $1.3 billion of share repurchase and $1.9 billion of dividends.

向股東返還了 31 億美元的現金、約 13 億美元的股票回購和 19 億美元的股利。

We announced a 4% increase in the dividend earlier this month, the 63rd consecutive annual increase and 129th consecutive year in which P&G has paid a dividend.

本月早些時候，我們宣布將股息增加 4%，這是寶潔公司連續第 63 年增加股息，也是連續第 129 年支付股息。

P&G is one of only 10 U.S. companies to pay a dividend for more than 120 consecutive years.

寶潔公司是美國僅有的 10 家連續 120 年以上派息的公司之一。

Only 3 U.S. companies have increased dividends more consecutive years than P&G.

只有 3 家美國公司比寶潔連續數年增加股利。

Over the last 10 years, the annual dividend has increased from $1.64 to $2.90 per share, returning $67 billion of cash dividends to shareholders over those 10 years.

過去10年裡，年度股利從每股1.64美元增加到2.90美元，10年向股東返還了670億美元的現金股利。

In summary, a strong quarter, solid consumption, volume and organic sales growth driving positive market share trends across categories and geographies.

總而言之，強勁的季度、穩定的消費、銷售和有機銷售成長推動了跨類別和地區的積極市場份額趨勢。

Strong constant currency core earnings per share growth, a continued best-in-class track record of cash returned to shareowners.

每股貨幣核心收益強勁持續成長，股東現金回報持續維持一流記錄。

All of this delivered while working to address some significant category-specific challenges and against a difficult competitive and macro landscape.

所有這些都是在努力解決一些重大的特定類別挑戰以及應對困難的競爭和宏觀環境的同時實現的。

We continue to accelerate change in our program of constructive disruption to meet the challenges we still face and to further improve results from here.

我們繼續加快建設性顛覆計畫的變革，以應對我們仍然面臨的挑戰並進一步改善結果。

As you know, we've made several important strategic choices, which are enabling the progress we're making.

如您所知，我們做出了幾個重要的策略選擇，這些選擇推動了我們所取得的進展。

One was the focus and strength in our portfolio in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice; in categories where we occupy a #1 or 2 position, which have historically grown faster than the balance of the company and are more profitable.

一是我們的產品組合在日常使用類別中的重點與優勢，其中以性能驅動品牌選擇；在我們佔據第一或第二位置的類別中，這些類別的成長速度歷來快於公司的其餘部分，並且利潤更高。

This choice is clearly paying out.

這個選擇顯然是有回報的。

Within these categories, again, categories where performance drives brand choice, we've taken a deliberate step to invest in and advance the superiority of our products and packages, retail execution, marketing and value, growing the markets in which we compete and strengthening the long-term health and competitiveness of our brands.

在這些類別中，同樣，在性能驅動品牌選擇的類別中，我們採取了審慎的步驟來投資和提高我們的產品和包裝、零售執行、營銷和價值的優勢，擴大我們競爭的市場並加強我們的產品和服務。

We've spent a lot of time together discussing these advances in the U.S. and China, but they're global in nature.

我們花了很多時間一起討論美國和中國的這些進步，但它們本質上是全球性的。

Let's take a look at a few examples in Europe where we have built P&G aggregate share by 20, 30 and 50 basis points over the last 12-, 6- and 3-month periods, respectively.

讓我們來看看歐洲的幾個例子，在過去 12 個月、6 個月和 3 個月期間，我們的寶潔總份額分別提高了 20、30 和 50 個基點。

In Europe, our growth in Fabric Care is driving category growth of 4%, led by the strength of consumer-preferred products such as Ariel PODS.

在歐洲，在 Ariel PODS 等消費者喜愛的產品的強勁帶動下，我們在織物護理領域的成長推動了 4% 的品類成長。

Ariel's superiority has delivered nearly 1 point of share growth in Europe Fabric Care against very favorable local competition, offering consumers superior performance and convenience.

Ariel 的優勢使歐洲織物護理領域的份額在非常有利的本地競爭中增長了近 1 個百分點，為消費者提供了卓越的性能和便利性。

Fairy auto dishwashing is driving mid-single digit category growth behind superior premium price innovation, Fairy Platinum.

Fairy 自動洗碗機在卓越的高價創新 Fairy Platinum 的推動下，推動了中位數的類別成長。

Fairy is delivering double-digit organic sales growth with share up more than 200 basis points.

Fairy 實現了兩位數的有機銷售成長，份額增加超過 200 個基點。

We just launched a new upgrade, Fairy Platinum Plus, in the March quarter.

我們剛剛在三月季度推出了新的升級版 Fairy Platinum Plus。

Platinum Plus delivers the outstanding cleaning performance Fairy consumers expect with added anti-dullness technology to keep the finish on dishes looking like new.

Platinum Plus 提供出色的清潔性能，消費者期望透過添加防暗技術來保持餐具表面光潔如新。

Early results of Platinum Plus are strong and are further strengthening category growth.

Platinum Plus 的早期業績強勁，進一步加強了品類成長。

In Feminine Care, our super-premium innovation, Always Infinity, is driving Western European market growth in the pad segment.

在女性護理領域，我們的超優質創新產品 Always Infinity 正在推動西歐衛生棉市場的成長。

And Always Discreet continues to drive market growth in the adult incontinence category.

Always Discreet 持續推動成人失禁類別的市場成長。

In total, Always Feminine Care share is up over 0.5 point year-to-date as we continue to build and expand our advantages in each superiority vector.

總的來說，隨著我們繼續建立和擴大我們在每個優勢領域的優勢，Always Feminine Care 的份額今年迄今已增長了 0.5 個百分點以上。

European Oral Care is driving market growth and strong organic sales growth led by high single-digit growth of Oral-B power brushes.

歐洲口腔護理正在推動市場成長，並在 Oral-B 電動刷的高個位數成長的帶動下實現強勁的有機銷售成長。

We recently launched Gillette Skin Guard razors in Western Europe.

我們最近在西歐推出了吉列 Skin Guard 刮鬍刀。

Skin Guard is designed to delight the 70% of men who report skin sensitivity, which causes many of them to shave less frequently.

Skin Guard 旨在滿足 70% 皮膚敏感的男性的需求，這導致他們中的許多人刮鬍子的頻率降低。

By addressing this unmet consumer need with a superior performing product, we're creating the opportunity to increase usage, building the category and building share for P&G.

透過以性能卓越的產品滿足這項未滿足的消費者需求，我們正在為寶潔創造增加使用量、打造品類和份額的機會。

After just a few months in market, the razor systems category has accelerated to double-digit growth in France, Germany and the U.K., with Gillette growing a few points ahead of the market.

上市僅幾個月後，刮鬍刀系統類別在法國、德國和英國已加速實現兩位數成長，其中吉列領先市場數個百分點。

We've talked a lot about products and packaging superiority, a little bit less about communication and value and very little about retail execution superiority, a key driver of our accelerated growth results.

我們談了很多關於產品和包裝優勢的內容，很少談論溝通和價值，而很少談論零售執行優勢，這是我們加速成長結果的關鍵驅動力。

In the recently published 2018 Global Advantage Monitor report, which is an independent retailer assessment of manufacturers across 7 key performance areas: strategic alignment, people, category development, consumer marketing, trade and shopper marketing, supply chain and customer service, P&G ranked #1 globally.

在最近發布的2018 年全球優勢監測報告中，寶潔公司在7 個關鍵績效領域對製造商進行了獨立評估：策略調整、人員、品類開發、消費者行銷、貿易和購物者行銷、供應鏈和客戶服務。

We earned the highest number of #1 country ratings, 12 in total, including China, Japan, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. And we ranked #1 in all 7 performance areas.

我們獲得了最多的排名第一的國家/地區，總共 12 個，包括中國、日本、墨西哥、俄羅斯和美國，並且我們在所有 7 個績效領域中排名第一。

Omnichannel results were tabulated for the first time this past year.

去年首次將全通路結果製成表格。

P&G was identified as the leading manufacturer overall, with the #1 position in the U.S., China, France and Turkey.

寶潔公司被認定為總體領先製造商，在美國、中國、法國和土耳其排名第一。

P&G was recently recognized by Walmart U.S. as supplier of the year in consumables, the first time we've earned this distinction in more than a decade, driven by innovation that grows markets and increases margin and record service levels enabled by our supply chain transformation.

寶潔公司最近被沃爾瑪美國公司評為年度消費品供應商，這是我們十多年來首次獲得這一殊榮，其推動力是透過我們的供應鏈轉型推動市場成長、利潤率提高和創紀錄服務水平的創新。

We were also named the supplier of the year by Walmart in Mexico, Japan and China.

我們也被沃爾瑪評為墨西哥、日本和中國年度供應商。

We've recently earned similar recognitions in the U.S. at Target, CVS and Family Dollar.

最近，我們在美國的 Target、CVS 和 Family Dollar 也獲得了類似的認可。

We appreciate this recognition, but what really matters is retailers' improved view of P&G as a partner in joint value creation, which earns us stronger distribution, share of shelf, display and feature.

我們感謝這種認可，但真正重要的是零售商對寶潔公司作為共同價值創造合作夥伴的看法的改善，這為我們贏得了更強大的分銷、貨架份額、展示和功能。

While we're making solid progress across the superiority drivers, we're working and investing to continue extending our margin of advantage, which will require additional investment.

雖然我們在優勢驅動因素方面取得了紮實的進展，但我們正在努力和投資以繼續擴大我們的優勢幅度，這將需要額外的投資。

The need for this investment, the need to offset macro cost headwinds and the need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscores the importance of productivity.

這項投資的需要、抵消宏觀成本不利因素的需要以及推動收入和利潤平衡成長（包括利潤率擴張）的需要，都凸顯了生產力的重要性。

We're driving cost savings and efficiency improvement in all facets of our business as a part of our second 5-year $10 billion productivity program.

作為我們第二個 5 年 100 億美元生產力計畫的一部分，我們正在推動業務各個方面的成本節約和效率提高。

We've consistently delivered $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion in annual cost of goods sold savings.

我們始終如一地每年節省 12 億至 16 億美元的銷售成本。

We're eliminating substantial waste in the media supply chain, delivering nearly $1 billion of savings in agency fees and ad production costs over the last 4 years.

我們正在消除媒體供應鏈中的大量浪費，在過去 4 年中節省了近 10 億美元的代理費和廣告製作成本。

We see more savings potential in these areas, along with more efficiency and effectiveness in media delivery.

我們看到這些領域有更多的節省潛力，以及媒體交付的更高效率和有效性。

We're continuing to drive savings in organization cost.

我們將繼續努力節省組織成本。

Total enrollment, including contractor positions, is down about 30% since the start of our first productivity program.

自從我們第一個生產力計劃啟動以來，總入學人數（包括承包商職位）下降了約 30%。

Through our productivity efforts, P&G has maintained and built its status as a highly profitable company.

透過我們在生產力方面的努力，寶潔公司維持並建立了其作為高利潤公司的地位。

Before tax operating margins are among the highest in the industry, behind only Reckitt and Colgate whose margins reflect their concentrations in Health Care.

稅前營業利潤率是業界最高的，僅次於利潔時和高露潔，這兩家公司的利潤率反映了它們在醫療保健領域的集中度。

We have significant below-the-line advantages, operating with one of the lowest interest expense percentages and one of the lowest tax rates, putting us near the top of the industry in after-tax margin, already highly profitable and aggressively driving more savings.

我們擁有顯著的線下優勢，以最低的利息支出百分比之一和最低的稅率運營，使我們的稅後利潤率接近行業頂部，利潤已經很高，並積極推動更多儲蓄。

We're driving cost productivity and cash productivity with significant progress in all areas of working capital.

我們正在推動成本生產力和現金生產力，並在營運資本的所有領域取得重大進展。

Over the past 5 years, we've reduced receivables by 3 days, cut inventory by 10 days and increased payables by more than 30 days, enabling us to fund capital spending needed to transform our global supply chain while growing our dividend and maintaining an active share repurchase program.

在過去5 年裡，我們將應收帳款減少了3 天，庫存減少了10 天，應付帳款增加了30 天以上，使我們能夠為全球供應鏈轉型所需的資本支出提供資金，同時增加股利並維持活躍股票回購計畫。

Over the last 7 fiscal years, we've averaged nearly 100% adjusted free cash flow productivity, returning an average of over 110% of reported net earnings to shareowners through a combination of dividend and share repurchase.

在過去 7 個財年中，我們的調整後自由現金流生產力平均接近 100%，透過股利和股票回購相結合的方式，平均將超過 110% 的報告淨利潤返還給股東。

We're making organization structure and culture changes to better position us to win.

我們正在改變組織結構和文化，以便更好地贏得勝利。

We're taking steps to simplify the organization structure, focus effort, clarify responsibility, increase accountability.

我們正在採取措施簡化組織結構，集中精力，明確責任，強化問責。

We're supplementing internal talent development with experienced external hiring and are improving category dedication and mastery.

我們透過經驗豐富的外部招募來補充內部人才發展，並提升品類奉獻精神和掌握程度。

We're strengthening compensation and incentive programs to align with the organization structure changes.

我們正在加強薪酬和激勵計劃，以適應組織結構的變化。

We're leading the constructive disruption of our industry; lean innovation processes to improve speed to market, shots on goal and success rates of new products; monetizing internally developed technologies to build value and fund even more innovation investment; disrupting the brand-building ecosystem with digitally enabled 1:1 mass marketing; supply chain transformation, enabled by robotic process automation; and leveraging the digitization and data analytics to drive greater efficiency and effectiveness of all facets of our operation.

我們正在引領產業的建設性顛覆；精益創新流程，以提高新產品的上市速度、射門速度和成功率；將內部開發的技術貨幣化以創造價值並為更多創新投資提供資金；透過數位化的一對一大眾行銷顛覆品牌建立生態系統；由機器人流程自動化實現的供應鏈轉型；利用數位化和數據分析來提高我們營運各個方面的效率和有效性。

These portfolio, superiority, productivity, organization design and constructive disruption agendas are not independent strategies.

這些組合、優勢、生產力、組織設計和建設性顛覆議程並不是獨立的策略。

They reinforce and importantly build on each other.

它們相互加強，重要的是相互促進。

Together, they position us well on a relative basis within our industry to deal with near-term challenges from macro headwinds, trade transformation and anticipated competitive response, another foundation for stronger balanced growth and value creation over the short, mid- and long term.

它們共同使我們在產業內處於相對有利的地位，能夠應對宏觀逆風、貿易轉型和預期競爭反應帶來的近期挑戰，這是短期、中期和長期更強勁平衡成長和價值創造的另一個基礎。

Moving to guidance.

轉向指導。

I know we'll all hate to see it go, but with 3 strong quarters on the books averaging over 4% organic sales growth, we must regretfully abandon the low 2% end of our organic sales guidance range, increasing our organic sales growth outlook for the year to a solid 4%.

我知道我們都不願意看到它消失，但由於帳面上有 3 個強勁的季度平均有機銷售成長超過 4%，我們必須遺憾地放棄有機銷售指引範圍的 2% 下限，提高我們的有機銷售成長前景今年將穩定成長至4%。

We now expect all-in sales growth in the range of in-line to up 1% versus last year, reflecting 3 to 4 points of -- negative points of foreign exchange.

我們現在預計總銷售額將比去年增長 1%，反映出 3 到 4 個百分點的外匯負值。

The net impact of acquisitions and divestitures should have a modest positive impact on all-in sales.

收購和剝離的淨影響應該會對總銷售額產生適度的正面影響。

We're maintaining our core earnings per share guidance range of 3% to 8%, which translates to a range of 11% to 16% on a constant currency basis.

我們將核心每股盈餘指引範圍維持在 3% 至 8%，換算成以固定匯率計算為 11% 至 16%。

This guidance is based on current market growth rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.

此指導意見基於當前市場成長率、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。

Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases or additional geopolitical disruptions are not anticipated within this guidance range.

在此指導範圍內預計不會出現貨幣大幅疲軟、大宗商品成本增加或額外的地緣政治幹擾。

A little bit of perspective on the core EPS guidance.

關於核心 EPS 指導的一些觀點。

After 3 quarters, we're up 4.3%, more than 1 point below the middle of the fiscal year range.

三個季度後，我們的成長率為 4.3%，比財年區間的中間值低 1 個百分點以上。

Our outlook for foreign exchange, commodities, transportation and tariff impacts are unchanged, remaining at a combined $1.4 billion after-tax headwind for the year.

我們對外匯、大宗商品、運輸和關稅影響的展望保持不變，全年稅後逆風總額仍為 14 億美元。

We now expect an effective tax rate for the year of 17% to 18%.

我們目前預計今年的有效稅率為 17% 至 18%。

Factoring in higher option exercises, we now expect diluted shares outstanding to decrease by 1% for the fiscal year and Q4 diluted shares to be higher than last year by about 1%.

考慮到更多的選擇權行使，我們現在預計本財年攤薄後的流通股將減少 1%，第四季攤薄後的股數將比去年高出約 1%。

We're increasing our outlook for free cash flow productivity to at least 100%, well above our going-in target of 90%.

我們將自由現金流生產力的預期提高到至少 100%，遠高於我們 90% 的初始目標。

We continue to expect within this CapEx spending in the range of 5% to 5.5% of sales.

我們繼續預期資本支出將佔銷售額的 5% 至 5.5%。

This will be another year of strong cash returned to shareholders.

今年將是股東現金回報強勁的另一年。

We expect to pay over $7 billion in dividends and repurchase approximately $5 billion of shares in fiscal 2019.

我們預計 2019 財年將支付超過 70 億美元的股息，並回購約 50 億美元的股票。

As I noted just a minute ago, this continues a long track record of significant cash generation and cash returned to shareowners, ultimately the most important and enduring measure of a successful enterprise.

正如我剛才指出的那樣，這延續了大量現金產生和向股東返還現金的長期記錄，最終是衡量一個成功企業最重要和最持久的衡量標準。

Over the last 10 years, P&G has generated more operating profit and cash than 98% of publicly listed companies around the world.

在過去 10 年中，寶潔公司創造的營業利潤和現金超過全球 98% 的上市公司。

Only 3 companies have returned a higher percentage of cash to shareowners.

只有 3 家公司向股東返還現金的比例較高。

We won't provide specific guidance for next fiscal year until our next earnings call in July 30 but want to provide a few preview points for your consideration.

在 7 月 30 日的下一次財報電話會議之前，我們不會提供下一財年的具體指導，但希望提供一些預覽點供您考慮。

We're pleased with the top line momentum we've created, but we expect a strong competitive response, and obviously, the comps will be more difficult next year.

我們對我們創造的營收勢頭感到滿意，但我們預計會有強烈的競爭反應，顯然，明年的競爭將更加困難。

Some of the unusual bottom line help we've had this year from the land sale and in tax are unlikely to repeat next year, so these will create tough earnings comparisons.

今年我們從土地出售和稅收方面獲得的一些不尋常的底線幫助明年不太可能重複，因此這些將產生艱難的盈利比較。

FX commodities and transportation markets remain volatile.

外匯商品和運輸市場仍然波動。

Media markets and retail shopping are being transformed.

媒體市場和零售購物正在轉變。

I expect as we sit here today all of this will lead to fairly wide top and bottom line guidance ranges as we head into next year.

我預計，當我們今天坐在這裡時，所有這些都將在我們進入明年時導致相當廣泛的頂線和底線指導範圍。

To sum up, we delivered our third strong quarter of the year, giving us confidence to raise sales and cash productivity targets.

總而言之，我們實現了今年第三季的強勁表現，這讓我們有信心提高銷售和現金生產力目標。

Efforts to extend our margin of competitive superiority, to drive productivity savings to fund investments for growth and enhance our industry-leading margins, to simplify our organization structure and increase accountability, to constructively disrupt our industry are driving improved results.

擴大我們的競爭優勢，推動生產力節約，為成長投資提供資金，提高我們行業領先的利潤率，簡化我們的組織結構並增強責任感，建設性地顛覆我們的行業，這些努力正在推動業績的改善。

But the external environment presents many challenges.

但外在環境也帶來許多挑戰。

To address these challenges and further strengthen results, we continue to accelerate the pace of change.

為了因應這些挑戰並進一步鞏固成果，我們不斷加快變革步伐。

With that, I'm happy to take your questions.

至此，我很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自富國銀行的邦妮·赫爾佐格（Bonnie Herzog）。

So clearly, there's a lot going on in your business and the global market.

很明顯，您的業務和全球市場正在發生很多變化。

So in that context, I guess, I have a 2-part question on your forward outlook.

因此，在這種情況下，我想我有一個關於您的前瞻性展望的問題，分為兩部分。

First, on your FY '19 guidance, the momentum you see in your business did prompt you to raise your organic sales growth guidance but not your EPS, and you did maintain a very wide range.

首先，根據您的 19 財年指導，您在業務中看到的勢頭確實促使您提高了有機銷售增長指導，但沒有提高每股收益，而且您確實維持了一個非常廣泛的範圍。

You did touch on this, but could you drill down a little further for us on the key puts and takes of that?

您確實談到了這一點，但您能否為我們進一步深入了解其中的關鍵點和要點？

I guess that would help.

我想這會有幫助。

And then second, I was hoping to get your thoughts on the top line looking forward.

其次，我希望了解您對未來的主要想法。

This has really been a key question, whether or not you're going to be able to sustain a higher level of organic sales growth over the long term, especially as you're going to start to lap more difficult comps.

這確實是一個關鍵問題，從長遠來看，您是否能夠維持較高水平的有機銷售成長，特別是當您將開始進行更困難的比較時。

So I guess I'm trying to get a sense of your confidence level and in your ability to deliver and then realistically, if you expect share gains to continue to accelerate.

因此，我想我正在嘗試了解您的信心水平和交付能力，然後現實地了解您是否預計份額收益會繼續加速。

Or do you think a more moderate level of top line growth going forward is more realistic?

或者您認為未來較溫和的營收成長水準更為現實？

Well, thanks, Bonnie.

嗯，謝謝，邦妮。

On the current year bottom line, there's just a lot of -- well, let's just start with fiscal year-to-date.

在今年的底線中，有很多——好吧，讓我們從本財年迄今為止的情況開始。

So we've gone through 3 quarters.

我們已經度過了三個季度。

We're at 4.3%, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們的利率是 4.3%。

With only 1 quarter to go, that's relevant.

距離只剩下一個季度了，這一點很重要。

Second, there's a lot of variability still in the environment, whether that's foreign exchange, commodities, transportation, geopolitical disruption, competitive response, et cetera, and we think it is, even with 1 quarter to go, a bit misleading to give you a view of a very narrow guidance range.

其次，環境仍然存在許多變化，無論是外匯、大宗商品、運輸、地緣政治幹擾、競爭反應等等，我們認為，即使還剩 1 個季度，給你一個有點誤導的信息。

We also have a high degree of variability, as you've seen in the current quarter, from things like tax, and it's not certain at this point that we'll be able to close the land sale in Boston within the fiscal year, so that introduces variability.

正如您在本季度看到的那樣，我們在稅收等方面也存在很大的可變性，目前還不確定我們是否能夠在本財政年度內完成波士頓的土地出售，因此這引入了可變性。

And last but very importantly, we've talked about and are committed to a level of investment that's needed to continue to advance our margin of superiority, and we're not going to let up on that.

最後但非常重要的是，我們已經討論並致力於繼續提高我們的優勢邊際所需的投資水平，我們不會放鬆這一點。

So where does that put us overall?

那麼這對我們整體來說意味著什麼？

I think the most probable outcome is mid-single digits, consistent with what we've delivered fiscal year-to-date.

我認為最有可能的結果是中個位數，與我們本財政年度迄今交付的結果一致。

We've said the fourth quarter will be a little bit better, and we have that land sale gain in the fourth quarter, so maybe slightly above that.

我們說過第四季會好一點，而且第四季土地銷售有所成長，所以可能會略高於這個數字。

Everything goes right, and that opens up numbers closer to the top end of the range.

一切順利，這使得數字更接近範圍的上限。

A couple of problems, and we're probably closer to the bottom end of the range.

有幾個問題，我們可能已經接近該範圍的底端了。

So I don't -- that's how I view the guidance and why I think it's appropriate that we provided the guidance that we have.

所以我不——這就是我對指導的看法，也是為什麼我認為我們提供現有的指導是適當的。

You raised your next question, gets really to the sustainability not just of the top line but of the bottom line both for this year and as we go forward.

您提出了下一個問題，真正涉及今年和未來的可持續性，不僅是營收的可持續性，而且是利潤的可持續性。

And remember, in a constant -- a currency-neutral environment, we're talking about core earnings per share numbers this year that are well into a double-digit range, high double digits, on the high end of the range.

請記住，在貨幣中性的恆定環境中，我們談論的是今年的核心每股收益數字，該數字遠遠達到兩位數範圍，高兩位數，處於該範圍的高端。

And so the fundamental earnings power that exists behind the top line growth that we have been delivering is significant and should remain significant, and then we'll just have to see what happens, so things like currencies and commodities and tariffs.

因此，我們一直在實現的收入成長背後存在的基本獲利能力是巨大的，並且應該保持巨大，然後我們只需要看看會發生什麼，例如貨幣、大宗商品和關稅等。

In terms of sustainability of the top line, obviously, we increased our guidance range or increased our guidance period to a strong 4%.

就營收的可持續性而言，顯然我們提高了指導範圍或將指導期限延長至 4%。

We do that with confidence and sustainability of the numbers.

我們充滿信心並保持數字的可持續性來做到這一點。

One of the big questions we've all been wrestling with over the course of this fiscal year has been what happens to pricing and can manufacturers successfully price in this environment.

在本財年中，我們一直在努力解決的重大問題之一是定價會發生什麼以及製造商能否在這種環境下成功定價。

I think we're gaining collectively increased confidence that, that should be available to us done the right way, coupled with innovation in a way that builds the value equation for consumers and customers, and you're seeing that play through.

我認為我們正在集體增強信心，我們應該以正確的方式提供這些服務，再加上創新，為消費者和客戶建立價值方程式，並且您正在看到這一點。

You certainly saw that, for example, in Kimberly's results yesterday.

例如，您肯定在昨天金伯利的結果中看到了這一點。

The biggest measure, though, that we're focused on internally in terms of the sustainability of that top line is superiority and being able to deliver to that day in, day out across all 5 vectors that matter.

不過，就營收的可持續性而言，我們內部關注的最大衡量標準是優勢，以及能夠在所有 5 個重要領域日復一日地交付成果。

That is highly dependent on innovation, disruptive innovation that grows categories and inflects market growth rates.

這高度依賴創新，顛覆性創新可以增加類別並影響市場成長率。

And if we can continue to do that and, frankly, expand that successful effort across each of the categories, we should be in very good shape.

如果我們能夠繼續這樣做，並且坦白說，將成功的努力擴展到每個類別，我們應該處於非常好的狀態。

And if we can't in categories where performance drives brand choice, we'll have more difficulty.

如果我們不能在性能驅動品牌選擇的類別中，我們就會遇到更多困難。

But our recent success, the progress in the markets, even market growth itself, which is marginally up versus last time we talked, give us confidence that a higher level of sales growth is deliverable and sustainable.

但我們最近的成功、市場的進步，甚至市場成長本身（與我們上次談話相比略有上升），都讓我們相信更高水準的銷售成長是可以實現且可持續的。

The next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Jason English 與高盛的對話。

This is actually Cody, on for Jason this morning.

這其實是科迪，今天早上替傑森代言。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

One, at your current rate, it looks like you will not hit the high end of your $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion savings per year, which was your target.

第一，以您目前的利率，您似乎不會達到每年 12 億至 16 億美元儲蓄的上限，而這正是您的目標。

It seems to be one of the areas that has hold back your margin growth.

這似乎是阻礙你的利潤成長的領域之一。

What is causing the cost savings to come in below your target?

是什麼導致成本節省低於您的目標？

And how should we think about savings in -- for 4Q '19?

我們應該如何考慮 2019 年第四季的節省？

It's largely timing, so we expect to get close to our original communication on those savings.

這主要是時間問題，因此我們希望能夠接近我們關於這些節省的原始溝通。

And for example, the Tabler Station plant in West Virginia is just coming online with more categories being produced there and the start-up costs and integration costs now being exceeded hopefully by savings.

例如，西維吉尼亞州的 Tabler Station 工廠剛剛上線，在那裡生產更多類別的產品，啟動成本和整合成本現在有望透過節省而超過。

So we remain committed to a higher level of cost of goods sold savings.

因此，我們仍然致力於更高水準的商品銷售成本節省。

We view it as deliverable over the next couple of years.

我們認為它可以在未來幾年內交付。

We might be a little bit lower in some years, a little bit higher in other years, but we don't expect any delta from that representation to be a major driver for margin.

我們可能在某些年份會低一點，在其他年份會高一點，但我們預計該表示的任何增量都不會成為利潤率的主要驅動因素。

And in fact, in the fourth quarter, we expect a positive comparison to year ago on both gross and operating margin.

事實上，我們預計第四季度的毛利率和營業利潤率將與去年同期相比出現正面變化。

Great.

偉大的。

And just sticking on gross and operating margin, profitability rate has been a bit disappointing on such high organic sales growth.

光從毛利率和營業利益率來看，如此高的有機銷售成長，獲利率就有點令人失望。

What's holding back your gross margin expansion in an environment where commodity inflation is easing, you're passing through the price, and as I said, organic sales growth has been the strongest it's been in years?

在大宗商品通膨放緩的環境中，是什麼阻礙了您的毛利率擴張，您正在傳遞價格，正如我所說，有機銷售成長是多年來最強勁的？

And SG&A as a percentage of sales grew much more than we anticipated this quarter.

本季銷售、管理費用（SG&A）佔銷售額的百分比成長遠遠超過我們的預期。

What drove that?

是什麼推動了這一點？

So a couple of questions within that.

其中有幾個問題。

First of all, gross margin was flat versus year ago, which is a sequential improvement, as we had indicated.

首先，毛利率與去年同期持平，正如我們所指出的，這是一個連續的改善。

And as I said, next quarter, I expect positive gross margin comparison.

正如我所說，下個季度，我預計毛利率將呈正值。

Overall, the flow-through from sales to earnings was dramatically impacted, as we've talked many times, by $1.4 billion of after-tax of FX, commodity and transportation hits as well as the tariffs that have been imposed and, as I indicated, are currency neutral.

總體而言，正如我們多次談到的那樣，從銷售到盈利的流程受到了 14 億美元的稅後外匯、大宗商品和運輸打擊以及已徵收的關稅的巨大影響，正如我所指出的，貨幣中性。

So just take out one of those headwinds.

因此，只需消除這些不利因素之一即可。

Core earnings per share numbers are well into the double digits, and as I mentioned on the call, core operating profit on a constant currency basis will be up 7%.

每股核心收益已達到兩位數，正如我在電話會議上提到的，以固定匯率計算的核心營業利潤將增加 7%。

So you just can't look past those big drivers of margin compression.

因此，您不能忽視那些利潤壓縮的重大驅動因素。

And remember, when we're pricing to recover those costs because you can say, "Well, yes, I understand that those costs are in there, but aren't you pricing to recover them?" We're pricing to recover the cost, not to recover the margin.

請記住，當我們定價以收回這些成本時，因為你可以說，“嗯，是的，我知道這些成本在那裡，但你定價不是為了收回它們嗎？”我們定價是為了收回成本，而不是為了收回利潤。

And so we typically see margin compression, I mean, that's just a function of the math, behind that until we get through the cycle of market declines that typically occur with significant pricing and then back to growth.

因此，我們通常會看到利潤率壓縮，我的意思是，這只是數學函數，直到我們度過通常伴隨大幅定價而出現的市場下跌週期，然後恢復成長。

But I'm very confident that margin expansion, both gross and operating, will be a part of our algorithm going forward.

但我非常有信心，利潤率的擴張，無論是總利潤率還是營運利潤率，都將成為我們未來演算法的一部分。

It has to be in order to deliver top third TSR, and we're committed to it.

它必須是為了提供前三分之一的 TSR，我們致力於此。

Next, we'll go to Olivia Tong with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將採訪美國銀行的 Olivia Tong。

I wanted to talk a little bit about the state of competition because it seems like competitive battles are increasing whether it's in toothpaste against TotalSF or diapers with Huggies launching something new this summer; laundry, Henkel's obviously made a lot of noise we haven't seen in the marketplace.

我想談談競爭狀況，因為無論是在牙膏領域與TotalSF的競爭，還是在尿布領域與Huggies今年夏天推出的新產品，競爭似乎都在加劇；洗衣店，漢高顯然製造了許多我們在市場上從未見過的噪音。

But through all of that, you've accelerated your sales growth.

但透過這一切，您加速了銷售成長。

You're also spending more, so it seems -- or at least at P&G, you call that 100 basis points of higher marketing expense.

你也花了更多的錢，所以看起來——或者至少在寶潔公司，你稱之為100個基點的更高的行銷費用。

So can you talk about what you see going forward.

能談談您對未來的看法嗎？

Because obviously, those competitive battles seem to be continuing to brew up.

因為顯然，這些競爭性的戰鬥似乎正在繼續醞釀。

Our industry is a competitive industry across markets, across decades and will continue to be.

我們的產業是跨市場、跨數十年、並將繼續如此的競爭產業。

We have very strong and capable competition, and we've indicated that we expect a strong response to our share gains.

我們有非常強大和有能力的競爭，我們已經表示，我們預計我們的份額成長將得到強烈的反應。

If we do our job and continue to increase the superiority advantage and if that translates into increased or sustained market growth, we'll be just fine.

如果我們做好我們的工作並繼續增加優勢優勢，如果這轉化為市場成長的增加或持續，我們就會沒事。

If we're unable to do that, as I said earlier, we'll have some challenges.

如果我們無法做到這一點，正如我之前所說，我們將面臨一些挑戰。

Where it's very -- it would be very unusual in an industry that's as competitive as ours that we're going to be winning every day versus every competitor in every category in every country.

在像我們這樣競爭激烈的行業中，我們每天都會在每個國家每個類別的每個競爭對手中獲勝，這將是非常不尋常的。

That's not been our historical experience.

這不是我們的歷史經驗。

It's not our current experience.

這不是我們現在的經驗。

That won't be our future reality, but where we can win, 2/3 of those encounters were likely to drive disproportional top and bottom line growth.

這不會是我們未來的現實，但在我們能夠獲勝的地方，其中 2/3 的遭遇可能會推動不成比例的營收和利潤成長。

The other thing that's -- there are 3 kind of very positive developments in the market that are important to understand as we think about the role of competitiveness and competition.

另一件事是——當我們思考競爭力和競爭的作用時，市場上有 3 種非常積極的發展，理解這些發展非常重要。

One is that, again, market growth is inflecting slightly positive, which is a very good thing.

一是市場成長再次出現輕微正面的變化，這是一件非常好的事情。

The second is that pricing is occurring where it needs to occur.

第二是定價發生在需要發生的地方。

That's a very good thing.

這是一件非常好的事情。

Third, promotion levels, if you look at -- certainly, U.S. results are down.

第三，晉升水平，如果你看的話——當然，美國的業績下降了。

Now I'm talking kind of category level.

現在我說的是類別等級。

And they're down meaningfully.

他們的下降是有意義的。

They're down 5% below year ago in terms of percentage of volumes that's being sold on promotion.

就促銷銷量的百分比而言，它們比去年同期下降了 5%。

And marketing spending is up.

行銷支出也在增加。

You see that pattern in our results.

您可以在我們的結果中看到這種模式。

You see it in others' results.

您可以在其他人的結果中看到這一點。

And that's a fairly -- in a very aggregate level, a fairly constructive set of observations or dynamics.

從整體來看，這是一組相當有建設性的觀察或動態。

And each day is a new day.

每一天都是新的一天。

But as we sit here today, that all looks pretty good.

但當我們今天坐在這裡時，一切看起來都很好。

The next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯（Steve Powers）。

I was wondering if you could -- if you would be able to maybe break out growth in the quarter, enterprise versus focused markets, to the extent you're thinking about the business about that way.

我想知道您是否可以—您是否能夠在本季度實現企業與重點市場的成長，達到您以這種方式考慮業務的程度。

And more generally, as you've been rolling out and communicating that new business structure over the last 6 months or so, I'm wondering just to what extent it may be changing behavior, improving decision-making efficiency or maybe just the way you're planning fiscal '20, just some thoughts and context around how that change is taking shape.

更一般地說，當您在過去 6 個月左右的時間裡推出並傳達新的業務結構時，我想知道它可能會在多大程度上改變行為、提高決策效率，或者可能只是您的方式我們正在規劃20 財年，只是關於改變如何形成的一些想法和背景。

And if I could squeeze in just a clean-up question.

如果我能擠出一個清理問題。

I think you'd mentioned in SG&A this quarter 140 basis points of inflation and other impacts just including Merck.

我認為您在本季度的 SG&A 中提到了 140 個基點的通膨和其他影響，其中包括默克。

And I'm just curious as to how much of that is transitory, is kind of unique to the quarter or is spending inflation and elective spending that will persist over the future.

我只是好奇其中有多少是暫時的，是本季特有的，或者是支出通膨和選擇性支出將在未來持續存在。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

The majority of the SG&A increase, not all of it, but the majority is due to the addition of Merck to our consolidated results and importantly, the reflection of the integration costs.

SG&A 成長的大部分（不是全部），但大部分是由於默克公司納入我們的合併業績，更重要的是，反映了整合成本。

So we're going to go through onetime costs to get to synergies going forward.

因此，我們將透過一次性成本來實現未來的綜效。

That will also annualize the inclusion of Merck in our results after 2 more quarters.

這也將在兩個季度後將默克納入我們的業績中。

So I don't expect this to be an ongoing negative.

所以我預計這不會是一個持續的負面影響。

I expect it to be ongoing positive once we get to the full integration and deliver the synergies that we expect to deliver.

我預計，一旦我們實現全面整合並實現我們期望的協同效應，它將會持續積極。

There's also, just for clarity, within that SG&A number, a reflection of the accrual that we make for compensation.

為了清楚起見，SG&A 數字中也反映了我們應計的薪酬。

And with the results we're delivering, that number is higher this year than it would have been in prior years, so that's also in there.

根據我們提供的結果，今年的數字比往年要高，所以這裡也在那裡。

And John can help you kind of tease out the relative components here in terms of magnitude.

約翰可以幫助你梳理出這裡的相關組成部分的大小。

I think excluding Merck, SG&A would have been up slightly, reflecting increases in investment as we've talked about across the vectors of superiority.

我認為，排除默克，SG&A 會略有上升，反映了投資的增加，正如我們在優勢向量中所討論的那樣。

But again, as we go forward, I would expect operating margin as soon as next quarter to hopefully be a positive comparison versus year ago.

但同樣，隨著我們的前進，我預計下個季度的營業利潤率預計將與去年同期相比出現積極的變化。

And certainly in our construct next year, we'd be anticipating the same.

當然，在我們明年的建設中，我們也會期待同樣的情況。

In terms of breaking out growth by enterprise markets and focused markets, I'm honestly not prepared to do that today.

就企業市場和重點市場的突破性成長而言，老實說，我今天還沒有準備好這樣做。

We're still going through the work of -- micro organization design and rewiring the company's reporting mechanisms to accommodate exactly the question that you've asked, and we'll be prepared to answer that in the future.

我們仍在進行微觀組織設計和重新連接公司的報告機制的工作，以準確滿足您提出的問題，我們將準備在未來回答這個問題。

But the analogue I can give you, though it's not precise or completely clean, I mentioned that growth was broad-based.

但我可以給你的類比，雖然不精確或完全乾淨，但我提到成長是基礎廣泛的。

In the quarter we just completed, we grew 3% in developed markets, 9% in developing markets.

在我們剛完成的季度中，我們在已開發市場成長了 3%，在發展中市場成長了 9%。

I expect both sets of markets, focused and enterprise, to be sources of growth going forward.

我預計這兩個市場，無論是專注市場還是企業市場，都將成為未來成長的來源。

For perspective, again, if you just look at that developed market number, it was 4% in the U.S. in the last quarter.

再次從長遠來看，如果你只看已開發市場的數字，上個季度美國的數字為 4%。

We grew 3% in Europe.

我們在歐洲成長了 3%。

We grew mid-single digits in Japan.

我們在日本實現了中個位數成長。

So those are going to be -- when you look at the absolute growth that those markets are delivering, it's the majority of our growth.

因此，當你觀察這些市場帶來的絕對成長時，你會發現，這是我們成長的大部分。

We want to maintain the growth upside that exists in some of the enterprise markets, and we certainly want to maintain an optionality on future growth and profitability.

我們希望保持某些企業市場存在的成長空間，並且我們當然希望保持未來成長和獲利能力的選擇性。

So this isn't an either/or dynamic.

所以這不是一個非此即彼的動態。

We're set up differently now in those 2 different sets of markets to win in each.

我們現在在這兩組不同的市場上採取了不同的設置，以便在每組市場中獲勝。

And we'll be prepared to talk more about how this is manifesting itself in terms of specific plans when we discuss our plans for next year.

當我們討論明年的計劃時，我們將準備更多地討論這如何在具體計劃中體現出來。

But generally, we're all pretty excited about the opportunities that this presents and are moving excitedly forward.

但總的來說，我們都對這帶來的機會感到非常興奮，並興奮地向前邁進。

The next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So Jon, if you can a little bit elaborate more on the -- on Merck.

喬恩，請您詳細介紹一下默克公司的狀況。

So you're saying like excluding Merck, EBIT would have been slightly up.

所以你的意思是，排除默克公司，息稅前利潤會稍微上升。

And I understand your commentary about the fact that once the synergies are coming through, you expect that to be less of a drag.

我理解您對這樣一個事實的評論：一旦協同效應發揮作用，您預計這將不再是一個拖累。

But just on an apples-to-apples basis, I mean, the EBIT margin for that business is still probably going to cycle the next 3 quarters being a drag.

但我的意思是，僅在同類的基礎上，該業務的息稅前利潤率仍可能在接下來的三個季度中循環拖累。

If you can kind of give us like a little bit of context there.

如果您能給我們一些背景資訊的話。

And on the category growth, on the -- I'm sorry, on the commodity cost pressures, I understand some of the $1.4 billion is backward-looking.

關於品類成長，關於－我很抱歉，關於大宗商品成本壓力，我知道 14 億美元中的一些是向後看的。

So if you can give us like a state of the union on how on a sequential basis you're seeing the puts and takes for pulp, resins and transportation.

因此，您能否向我們提供一份國情咨文，說明您如何按順序查看紙漿、樹脂和運輸的投入和支出。

When you look at the quarter we just completed from a bottom line standpoint, operating profit, operating margin all the way through to EPS, I think, again, the biggest driver is FX.

當你從底線的角度來看我們剛完成的季度時，營業利潤、營業利潤率一直到每股收益，我再次認為，最大的驅動因素是外匯。

And as I mentioned, we have core operating growth on a constant currency basis of 7%.

正如我所提到的，以固定匯率計算，我們的核心營運成長率為 7%。

So I think it's important as we talk about what exists going forward and what doesn't to make sure that we have that in our mind's eye as well.

因此，我認為，當我們討論未來存在的內容和不存在的內容時，確保我們也牢記這一點很重要。

The Merck dynamic is largely one of transition costs.

默克的動態很大程度上是轉型成本之一。

And I'm not quite sure how those fall by quarter over the next couple of quarters, but I would expect us to continue to incur cost to integrate and transition that business, so yes, for the next 2 quarters, until it annualizes.

我不太確定這些在接下來的幾個季度中將如何逐季度下降，但我預計我們將繼續承擔整合和過渡該業務的成本，所以是的，在接下來的兩個季度中，直到其年化。

And then it will do more than annualize.

然後它的作用將不僅僅是年度化。

It will not only annualize.

它不僅會年化。

It will improve as we deliver the synergies.

隨著我們發揮協同效應，它將會得到改善。

From a -- and again, John can give you more detail there if you need that.

如果您需要的話，約翰可以再次為您提供更多詳細資訊。

From a commodity cost standpoint, we've seen slight easing in parts of the commodity exposure that we have but not in all.

從大宗商品成本的角度來看，我們所擁有的部分大宗商品敞口略有緩解，但並非全部。

I don't see the commodity environment in terms of our exposures in aggregate being dramatically different than it was when we talked last quarter, maybe a little bit better but not necessarily a lot.

我不認為大宗商品環境與我們上季度討論時相比有很大不同，也許好一點，但不一定好很多。

And going forward, in terms of what we see, for example, in the pulp market, and we certainly don't have a crystal ball in this regard, but if we just look at the combination demand and supply, there's no real reason to believe that, that rolls over dramatically anytime soon.

展望未來，就我們所看到的情況而言，例如在紙漿市場，我們在這方面當然沒有水晶球，但如果我們只看需求和供應的結合，沒有真正的理由相信這一點很快就會戲劇性地發生。

In terms of resins and the petrol complex, your guess is as good as mine.

就樹脂和汽油複合物而言，你的猜測和我的一樣好。

The next question comes from the line of Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的溫蒂‧尼克森 (Wendy Nicholson)。

Can you talk more about Grooming kind of from a high-level perspective?

您能從高層次的角度來談論更多修飾嗎？

Because it just seems outside of the big promotion you had in the September quarter, that category just has been a weight on your overall result for several years now.

因為它似乎不屬於您在九月季度進行的大型促銷活動，所以該類別多年來一直是您整體業績的一個重要因素。

And I get it, that, as you say, hey, in the portfolio, sometimes things are going to work; sometimes things aren't.

我明白，正如你所說，嘿，在投資組合中，有時事情會奏效；有時事情並非如此。

I get that.

我明白了。

But still, the consistency of the weakness in the business despite what we hear about innovation, despite the pricing reset, it just seems so stubborn.

但儘管如此，儘管我們聽說了創新，儘管重新定價，但業務的弱點仍然存在，它似乎如此頑固。

So I guess, number one, how committed are you to the category?

所以我想，第一，你對這個類別的投入程度如何？

I mean you've made big decisions to get out of Duracell, to get out of fragrances.

我的意思是，你已經做出了重大決定，退出金霸王、退出香水。

Is Grooming something that you really even need to be in over the long run?

從長遠來看，美容真的是你需要做的事情嗎？

And number two, it's still, I think, your highest-margin business, at least on a pretax basis.

第二，我認為它仍然是利潤率最高的業務，至少在稅前基礎上是如此。

So is there room to do another major reinvestment, another big price cut or some other reset there to get growth going?

那麼，是否還有空間進行另一次重大再投資、再次大幅降價或進行其他重置以促進成長？

Thanks, Wendy.

謝謝，溫迪。

Let me just start with the math, if you will.

如果你願意的話，讓我從數學開始。

So the Grooming segment in the last quarter was down 1%.

因此，上個季度的美容業務下降了 1%。

That's minus 3 in appliances, and flat in the wet shave part of the business, so not where we want to be in terms of growth but not a disaster by any means.

在電器方面，這一數字為-3，在濕剃業務部分則持平，因此這不是我們希望實現的增長目標，但無論如何也不是一場災難。

That -- it also is very different -- the results are very different by geography.

這也是非常不同的，不同地理位置的結果也有很大不同。

It was fairly strong results in Europe, fairly strong results in developing markets and continued market growth challenges primarily as well as some competitive challenges in the U.S. We are investing more right now behind the launch of Skin Guard, which, as you know, addresses the 70% of men who feel that they have sensitive skin and that the shaving experience provides irritation.

在歐洲取得了相當強勁的業績，在發展中市場取得了相當強勁的業績，主要是持續的市場成長挑戰，以及美國的一些競爭挑戰。知，它解決了70% 的男性認為自己的皮膚敏感，剃須體驗會帶來刺激。

To the extent that we can address that issue, which we feel Skin Guard does in a delightful way, we have the potential to increase usage, bring men back into the category who have left or increase the shave frequency because it's no longer uncomfortable, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now in Europe.

如果我們能夠解決這個問題（我們認為Skin Guard 以令人愉快的方式做到了這一點），我們就有可能增加使用量，讓男性重新回到已經離開的類別，或者增加剃須頻率，因為它不再不舒服，這正是我們現在在歐洲看到的情況。

And I mentioned the systems part of that market inflecting to 10% market growth since we've introduced Skin Guard and us growing slightly ahead of that.

我提到，自從我們推出 Skin Guard 以來，該市場的系統部分就實現了 10% 的市場成長，並且我們的成長略有領先。

We have more work to do in the U.S. that's -- and probably do need to invest more to get sufficient awareness and trial, which we're fully prepared to do.

我們在美國還有更多的工作要做——而且可能確實需要投入更多，以獲得足夠的認識和試驗，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

So that's how we're thinking about that business overall.

這就是我們對整個業務的思考方式。

The female part of the business continues to do very, very nicely.

女性業務繼續做得非常非常好。

We just introduced kind of an exciting exclusive brand with Walmart called Joy, which is off to a great start.

我們剛剛與沃爾瑪合作推出了一個令人興奮的獨家品牌，名為 Joy，這是一個很好的開始。

This is a business that we not only want to keep but that we like and feel we can win in long term.

這是一項我們不僅想保留的業務，而且我們喜歡並認為我們可以長期獲勝。

Next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel 的線路。

Wanted to reask a question around pricing and volume-related impact.

想重新詢問有關定價和數量相關影響的問題。

Maybe not specific to you, but overall, the level of pricing seems to be some having some impact on volumes from a -- I guess, from just an overall standpoint, more probably developed versus developing markets, probably a few more almost entirely that way.

也許不是特定於你，但總的來說，定價水平似乎對銷量有一些影響——我想，從整體角度來看，更可能是發達市場與發展中市場，可能還有一些幾乎完全是這樣。

I guess I'm curious whether you're seeing things within your categories and wanted to reask also the question on competitive response and kind of think about it maybe in a different way.

我想我很好奇你是否在你的類別中看到了東西，並想重新問一下關於競爭反應的問題，並可能以不同的方式思考它。

Have you seen anything that's changed on a category basis?

您是否看到了類別基礎上發生的任何變化？

We obviously see increasing threats, but so far doesn't seem to be that the overall level of increase has gone higher.

我們顯然看到威脅不斷增加，但到目前為止，整體增加水準似乎並沒有更高。

And then just lastly, kind of related to it.

最後，與此相關。

So if inputs have, I don't know, peaked or just are at a high level but maybe not clearly much higher, how have the discussions gone from a retailer standpoint seeing that a lot of them are still eating these price increases?

因此，如果我不知道，投入已經達到頂峰，或者只是處於較高水平，但可能並沒有明顯高出很多，那麼從零售商的角度來看，看到很多人仍在承受這些價格上漲的影響，討論是如何進行的？

And what would your expectations be, say, going forward, whether you can sustain or retain that level of pricing?

比方說，您對未來的期望是什麼，您是否能夠維持或維持這一定價水準？

Or do you have to do more from a promotional standpoint?

或者從促銷的角度來看你需要做更多的事情嗎？

You kind of said that, that level of promotional activity is low.

你說的是，促銷活動的水平很低。

So does that increase kind of as we look out over the longer term?

那麼，從長遠來看，這種情況會增加嗎？

Yes.

是的。

As we look at the overall equation on an aggregate basis as it relates to pricing, we're relatively optimistic.

當我們從總體上考慮與定價相關的總體方程式時，我們相對樂觀。

I see the volume dynamic slightly different than you may see it.

我看到的音量動態與您可能看到的音量略有不同。

We have had significant volume declines in particularly developing markets as we've made major increases in places like Argentina, in places like Turkey, where market size has been negatively impacted.

我們在特別是發展中市場的銷售量大幅下降，而在阿根廷、土耳其等市場規模受到負面影響的地方，我們的銷售量大幅增加。

If I look quarter-to-quarter, so when we talked last time to our conversation today, I feel more positive about the pricing environment than I did when we talked last, and in part that's because of some moves that have been made by significant competitors, and you see that reflected in the results.

如果我看季度與季度的情況，那麼當我們上次談論今天的談話時，我對定價環境的感覺比我們上次談論時更加積極，部分原因是重要的機構採取了一些舉措。會看到這一點反映在結果中。

I don't know, but I think what you're going to see broadly, and I'm just reflecting on the level of market growth which has inflected a little bit, is pretty good top line performance from the HPC industry in this quarter.

我不知道，但我認為你會廣泛地看到，我只是反映了市場成長水準的變化，本季 HPC 產業的營收表現相當不錯。

And there will always be a small impact on volume as we adjust prices appropriately.

當我們適當調整價格時，總是會對成交量產生微小的影響。

But again, I feel fairly comfortable about where we stand currently.

但同樣，我對我們目前的處境感到相當滿意。

Our conversations with our retail partners are primarily based on joint value creation, on market growth and on margin.

我們與零售合作夥伴的對話主要基於共同價值創造、市場成長和利潤。

The only way they make progress is through market growth, our share growth is not that meaningful for them.

他們取得進步的唯一途徑是透過市場成長，我們的份額成長對他們來說意義不大。

They want the market to grow, and they want our items to generate an appropriate margin for them.

他們希望市場成長，他們希望我們的產品為他們創造適當的利潤。

And in that context, the pricing dynamic is actually a positive, not a negative.

在這種情況下，定價動態實際上是正面的，而不是負面的。

More importantly, we try to take pricing in a very smart way, specifically combining pricing with innovation.

更重要的是，我們嘗試以非常明智的方式進行定價，特別是將定價與創新相結合。

With the value equation we're offering consumers increases, doesn't decrease, and ideally, the value equation that we're offering our retail partners increases both in terms of the market growth potential and in terms of the margin, and that's where we focus our conversations.

透過我們為消費者提供的價值方程，我們為消費者提供的價值方程會增加，不會減少，理想情況下，我們為零售合作夥伴提供的價值方程在市場成長潛力和利潤方面都會增加，這就是我們的目標集中我們的談話。

Next, we'll go to the Nik Modi with RBC.

接下來，我們將與 RBC 一起前往尼克·莫迪。

Jon, I was hoping you can give an update on DS3.

Jon，我希望您能提供有關 DS3 的最新資訊。

I know obviously, it's a pretty small initiative at this point, but it does kind of align with the whole disruptive nature of how you're thinking about R&D.

我顯然知道，目前這只是一個很小的舉措，但它確實符合您對研發的整體顛覆性思考。

Is this -- what are the early learnings?

這是──早期的經驗教訓是什麼？

Are you going to put P&G brands on it?

你打算把寶潔品牌貼在上面嗎？

Is it going to be its own brand?

它會成為自己的品牌嗎？

Any kind of context you can give would be interesting.

你能提供的任何類型的背景都會很有趣。

We're very excited about DS3 and its potential across a number of our categories from a consumer delight standpoint, from a product efficacy standpoint, from the degrees of innovation it opens up to us in terms of how we can formulate that product and what we can include with it or put in it.

我們對DS3 及其在我們多個類別中的潛力感到非常興奮，從消費者滿意度的角度來看，從產品功效的角度來看，從它在我們如何制定該產品以及我們的產品方面為我們帶來的創新程度而言。

But it is very early days, and we are working in transactional environments with consumers today across several categories to understand how we can optimize the potential of this very exciting innovation, and that includes work to understand how it can best be positioned from a branding standpoint.

但現在還處於早期階段，我們正在與當今多個類別的消費者在交易環境中合作，以了解如何優化這一令人興奮的創新的潛力，其中包括了解如何從品牌角度對其進行最佳定位。

So all of that is work underway, Nik, and we'll share more as we learn more and decide more.

因此，尼克，所有這些工作都正在進行中，隨著我們了解更多並做出更多決定，我們將分享更多內容。

But this is just a wonderful opportunity that allows superior form in multiple different categories, potentially the creation of some new jobs to do as well.

但這只是一個絕佳的機會，可以在多個不同的類別中實現卓越的表現，並有可能創造一些新的工作。

So we're very, very excited about it, and thanks for asking about it.

所以我們對此非常非常興奮，感謝您提出這個問題。

Next question comes from the line of Steve Strycula with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steve Strycula。

Super quick question on Merck as a follow-up.

作為後續問題，關於默克的超級快速問題。

Just Jon, just want to clarify that the integration costs were, in fact, part of the SG&A expense this quarter.

Jon，只是想澄清一下，整合成本實際上是本季 SG&A 費用的一部分。

Is that, in fact, the case?

事實果真如此嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That's, in fact, the case.

事實上，正是如此。

Correct.

正確的。

And then just switching over to Baby Care and Gillette.

然後就轉向嬰兒護理和吉列。

I noticed in the release this morning, it appears that Baby Care trends decelerated quarter-on-quarter slightly, and you called out competition.

我在今天早上的新聞稿中註意到，嬰兒護理趨勢似乎季度環比略有放緩，並且您指出了競爭。

Just wanted to know whether this was primarily U.S. versus China and how you see both of these markets moving forward.

只是想知道這是否主要是美國與中國的問題，以及您如何看待這兩個市場的未來發展。

And then lastly, to an earlier question, how do you think about the inflection point for Gillette as Skin Guard gains traction around advertising?

最後，對於先前的問題，隨著 Skin Guard 受到廣告關注，您如何看待吉列的轉折點？

I'll focus on baby since we haven't discussed that much during the call so far.

我會專注於嬰兒，因為到目前為止我們在通話中還沒有討論太多。

Market share trends in baby are actually improving sequentially past 12, past 6, past 3 months on a global basis, so that's very encouraging.

實際上，全球嬰兒市場份額趨勢在過去 12、過去 6、過去 3 個月中一直在持續改善，因此這是非常令人鼓舞的。

We did see a slight -- we did see a reduction in the rate of growth in China but still growing share overall.

我們確實看到了一點——我們確實看到中國的成長率下降，但整體份額仍在成長。

And that's really the story on baby with a lot of innovation to come to importantly -- and I want to be a little bit careful here from a competitive sensitivity standpoint, but to ensure that our -- as much as possible our entire portfolio offers a superior experience for consumers, again, across the pricing ladder and form offerings.

這確實是關於嬰兒的故事，重要的是有很多創新——從競爭敏感性的角度來看，我想在這裡稍微小心一點，但為了確保我們的——盡可能我們的整個產品組合提供了再次，透過定價階梯和產品形式為消費者提供卓越的體驗。

And our next question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自阿里·迪巴吉和伯恩斯坦的對話。

So to help answer the sustainability of top line question, would it be possible to disaggregate the drivers of the 5% top line growth a little bit differently than you typically do?

因此，為了幫助回答營收的永續性問題，能否以與通常做法稍有不同的方式來分解 5% 營收成長的驅動因素？

And I guess, precise numbers might be hard.

我想，精確的數字可能很難。

But sort of in terms of lift price change, lower trade spend or promo, same-store sales like all else equal same-store sales and then shelf space, understanding those dynamics might be helpful for all of us to then be able to think about which one of those dynamics are sustainable going forward.

但就提升價格變化、較低的貿易支出或促銷、同店銷售等其他所有因素相同的同店銷售以及貨架空間而言，了解這些動態可能有助於我們所有人思考其中哪一項動力在未來是可持續的。

And if you can in that talk a little bit about the Argentina price that you and all your peers, it's not just you, but all of your peers are getting as well and how that figures into your numbers would be helpful.

如果你能在其中談論你和你所有同行的阿根廷價格，那麼不僅僅是你，而且你所有的同行也在獲得同樣的價格，以及如何將其計入你的數字將會有所幫助。

Argentina pricing, I think, had about a 20 to 30 basis point impact on our overall aggregate top line, so positive but not a huge driver.

我認為，阿根廷的定價對我們的整體總收入產生了大約 20 到 30 個基點的影響，雖然是正面的，但並不是一個巨大的推動因素。

As you can appreciate, Ali, sitting here right now, I don't have the ability to break down the numbers in the way that you've been asking for.

正如你所理解的，阿里，現在坐在這裡，我沒有能力按照你要求的方式分解這些數字。

But let me make a couple of comments.

但讓我發表幾點評論。

One is if you look at our traditional breakdown, all components are driving top line growth, volume, pricing, mix.

一是，如果你看看我們的傳統細分，所有組成部分都在推動營收成長、銷售、定價和組合。

That's a much more sustainable equation as I think you'll readily appreciate than when you have only 1 of those or only 2 of those driving the top line.

這是一個更永續的方程式，我認為您會很容易理解，而不是只有其中 1 個或只有 2 個驅動收入。

So that itself speaks to sustainability of the model, and within that price was 2 points on the quarter.

因此，這本身就說明了該模型的可持續性，並且該價格在本季度上漲了 2 個百分點。

Volume was a positive impact.

成交量產生了積極的影響。

Price was a positive impact.

價格產生了正面的影響。

The second thing you mentioned, shelf space, and we spent some time this quarter intentionally talking about our go-to-market execution and its importance in this turnaround and then the sustainability of the top line going forward.

你提到的第二件事是貨架空間，我們本季花了一些時間有意討論我們的上市執行及其在這次轉變中的重要性，以及未來營收的可持續性。

And it's very important, and we are seeing increased distribution both in terms of accounts but also in terms of shelf space.

這非常重要，我們看到，無論是在帳戶方面，還是在貨架空間方面，分銷都在增加。

We are seeing significant cooperation from our retail partners, again, in the spirit of joint value creation and are seeing them viewing us as a source of that potentially more potently than has been the case in recent history.

我們再次看到我們的零售合作夥伴以共同創造價值的精神進行了重大合作，並看到他們將我們視為比近代歷史上更有效的潛在來源。

So we're very positive about the progress we're making with the retail trade, be that online or offline, and that speaks to the sustainability of results.

因此，我們對零售業的進展非常樂觀，無論是線上或線下，這說明了結果的可持續性。

I will try to get you more perspective over time, along the lines you've asked, but as I said, you can appreciate I don't have that readily available here.

隨著時間的推移，我會盡力讓您獲得更多的觀點，按照您所問的內容，但正如我所說，您會明白我這裡沒有現成的東西。

Next question comes from the line of Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge Research.

下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Jonathan Feeney。

I wanted to understand maybe bigger picture about how discretionary marketing investments work.

我想了解有關全權行銷投資如何運作的更宏觀的情況。

It seems to me both from the 100 basis point relative increase in marketing you hauled out, yes, the overperformance on tax rate and coincident with that, that there's a level of discretionary investment here, and I can understand why that would be.

在我看來，從你提出的營銷相對增長 100 個基點來看，是的，稅率表現出色，與之相一致，這裡存在一定程度的可自由支配投資，我可以理解為什麼會這樣。

What I'm trying to understand is how practically that works.

我想要了解的是它的實際效果如何。

So there are like lists of spending people want to do and when the environment there just -- so justifies you or your people in your suite kind of are able to approve that on a rolling basis.

因此，就像人們想要做的支出清單一樣，當那裡的環境證明你或你的辦公室裡的人能夠滾動批准這一點時，就可以了。

And I'm trying to understand what the marginal yield, how you think about marginal ROI when opportunities to invest come up like this, and clearly, they're driving some top line right now.

我試圖了解邊際收益率是多少，當投資機會像這樣出現時，你如何看待邊際投資回報率，顯然，它們現在正在推動一些收入。

Should we expect that to continue to be the case going forward?

我們是否應該期望這種情況會持續下去？

Just that kind of discipline and process I'd love some insight on.

我希望對這種紀律和流程有一些見解。

The majority of those decisions are made by individual category presidents and group presidents who have the clearest view to the opportunities that exist and the return that can be generated on those opportunities.

其中大部分決策是由各個類別總裁和集團總裁做出的，他們對現有的機會以及這些機會可以產生的回報有最清晰的認識。

And typically, only if they find themselves in a bind that relates to delivering their bottom line objectives will they come to David and I and ask for, in essence, a view of the corporate degrees of flexibility that would facilitate investment.

通常情況下，只有當他們發現自己陷入與實現底線目標相關的困境時，他們才會來找大衛和我，並從本質上要求了解有助於投資的公司靈活性程度。

That's point one.

這是第一點。

Point two, where we find smart opportunities to invest, we are going to invest.

第二點，當我們發現明智的投資機會時，我們就會進行投資。

And I try to make that clear even in articulating the maintenance of our guidance range on the bottom line for the fiscal year.

我甚至在闡明維持本財年底線的指導範圍時也試圖明確這一點。

We really believe that in these categories where performance drives brand choice, we need to be superior across all 5 vectors of superiority, and we're very determined to deliver that.

我們堅信，在這些性能驅動品牌選擇的類別中，我們需要在所有 5 個優勢向量上都表現出色，我們非常有決心實現這一點。

And that doesn't mean that we're going to do stupid things.

這並不意味著我們會做愚蠢的事情。

We're very focused on return, but we know that superiority delivers return in these categories.

我們非常注重回報，但我們知道優勢可以在這些類別中帶來回報。

And on the categories where we've truly been able to bring that to market across the portfolio, the results have been really terrific, not just in terms of our own business but in terms of the inflection of market growth rates and the acceleration of market growth rates.

在我們真正能夠將其推向整個投資組合市場的類別上，結果非常出色，不僅在我們自己的業務方面，而且在市場成長率的變化和市場加速方面增長率。

So I'm not sure that gives you the granularity that you're looking for, but again, the vast, vast majority of decisions on where and how to invest are made by individual categories and individual markets, and they're held within that to deliver a bottom line objective and an overall value creation objective.

因此，我不確定這是否能夠滿足您所尋求的粒度，但同樣，絕大多數關於投資地點和方式的決定都是由各個類別和各個市場做出的，並且它們是在該範圍內進行的。實現底線目標和整體價值創造目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Bill Chappell。

Jon, just going back to baby, I mean, how comfortable are you that baby can turn in light of kind of unfavorable demographics for the foreseeable future?

喬恩，回到嬰兒身上，我的意思是，考慮到可預見的未來不利的人口統計數據，你對嬰兒的適應程度如何？

And I'm just trying to understand, if birthrate continues to decline both in U.S. and around the world, I mean, how do you grow that business?

我只是想了解，如果美國和世界各地的出生率繼續下降，我的意思是，你如何發展這項業務？

And is that even reasonable to expect it to grow in the next couple of years?

預計它在未來幾年內增長是否合理？

On a global basis, we expect population to increase, the number of babies born each year to increase.

在全球範圍內，我們預期人口會增加，每年出生的嬰兒數量也會增加。

So again, on a global basis, if this is witnessed by current market growth rate, this should be a very attractive category.

因此，從全球範圍來看，如果從目前的市場成長率來看，這應該是一個非常有吸引力的類別。

The other encouraging aspect, Bill, is that what is growing the fastest within the Baby Care category are the pants form, particularly premium pants and premium-type diapers.

比爾，另一個令人鼓舞的方面是，嬰兒護理類別中成長最快的是褲子形式，特別是優質褲子和優質尿布。

So I don't want to make an absolute statement or overgeneralization, but generally, the category is mixing up, not in every case but in aggregate.

因此，我不想做出絕對的陳述或過度概括，但總的來說，該類別是混合的，不是在每種情況下，而是在總體上。

China is a clear example of that.

中國就是一個明顯的例子。

And generally, smaller families contribute to that dynamic.

一般來說，較小的家庭有助於這種動力。

The preciousness of 1 child versus the family I grew up in of 8 children generates a very different purchase dynamic.

1 個孩子的珍貴與我成長的 8 個孩子的家庭相比，產生了截然不同的購買動力。

So there's nothing that we see that causes us concern that this is a category that's going to be declining.

因此，我們沒有看到任何東西讓我們擔心這個類別將會下降。

There are certain markets that will present challenges, and we need to make sure, as I said earlier, that we're superior across each points of the pricing ladder that people choose to enter the category in or move to.

有些市場會帶來挑戰，正如我之前所說，我們需要確保我們在人們選擇進入或轉移的定價階梯的每個點上都具有優勢。

And if we do that, this should be a very, very attractive business.

如果我們這樣做，這應該是一項非常非常有吸引力的業務。

Your next question comes from the line of Caroline Levy with Macquarie.

你的下一個問題來自卡洛琳·利維 (Caroline Levy) 與麥格理 (Macquarie) 的對話。

Just wanted to ask, within Beauty, your top line looked strong, and I would have expected a stronger EBIT growth driving that.

只是想問一下，在美容領域，你們的營收看起來很強勁，我本來預計會有更強勁的息稅前利潤成長來推動這一點。

And then in contrast, in Fabric Care, you had really, really strong profit growth.

相比之下，在織物護理領域，您的利潤成長非常非常強勁。

Can you just talk to some of the drivers of what happened to margins in each of those respective businesses, Beauty and fabric?

您能否談談美容和布料等各自業務利潤率變化的一些驅動因素？

Once we get below the top and bottom lines on an individual category basis, I'm a little bit ill-equipped to give you the quality of answer that I think you deserve.

一旦我們低於單一類別的頂線和底線，我就有點無力為您提供我認為您應得的高品質答案。

So I'm going to ask you to follow up with John on that.

所以我要請你跟進約翰的情況。

Clearly, in Fabric Care, we dialed back significantly on promotion levels, which has had a big impact on profitability.

顯然，在織物護理領域，我們大幅縮減了促銷力度，這對獲利能力產生了重大影響。

In both categories, we have productivity savings coming into effect.

在這兩個類別中，我們都實現了生產力節省。

We're investing pretty heavily in the Beauty business to drive that top line, and it's responding very nicely.

我們在美容業務上進行了大量投資，以推動收入成長，而且它的反應非常好。

I'm comfortable overall with the combination of top and bottom line growth rates in both of those businesses, but John can provide you a little bit more granularity.

總體而言，我對這兩項業務的頂線成長率和底線成長率的組合感到滿意，但約翰可以為您提供更詳細的資訊。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自喬·阿爾托貝洛和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

So first, a quick housekeeping item.

首先，快速整理一下物品。

The gain on the sale of the Gillette site in Boston that you expect in the fourth quarter, that's about $0.04 to $0.05 a share, if my notes are correct, and I think that's going to be in the SG&A line not in other income.

如果我的筆記正確的話，您預計第四季度出售波士頓吉列網站的收益約為每股 0.04 至 0.05 美元，我認為這將計入 SG&A 項目，而不計入其他收入。

It's -- I would call the range $0.04 to $0.06, and yes, it will be in SG&A.

我將這個範圍稱為 0.04 美元到 0.06 美元，是的，它將計入 SG&A。

Okay.

好的。

And then shifting gears to the after-tax headwinds from FX, commodities, currencies, you still look at about $1.4 billion this year, and I know this is a big assumption.

然後轉向來自外匯、大宗商品、貨幣的稅後逆風，今年你仍然會看到大約 14 億美元，我知道這是一個很大的假設。

But if we assume nothing changes, what would that number look like for fiscal '20 with commodities getting better and transport rates at least on a spot market down dramatically year-over-year?

但如果我們假設沒有任何變化，那麼在大宗商品好轉且至少在現貨市場上的運輸費率同比大幅下降的情況下，20 財年這個數字會是什麼樣子？

Yes.

是的。

It's a hard question to answer, believe it or not.

不管你信不信，這是一個很難回答的問題。

I realize it would seem relatively simple, but nothing is in this space.

我意識到這看起來相對簡單，但這個空間裡什麼都沒有。

If you just look at it ceteris paribus, so nothing else changes.

如果你只看其他條件不變的情況，那麼其他什麼都不會改變。

You've seen the constant currency earnings per share growth numbers I've provided, so you see the significant leverage as we hopefully continue to sustainably grow the top line that should lead to improved margins.

您已經看到了我提供的恆定的每股貨幣收益成長數字，因此您看到了顯著的槓桿作用，因為我們希望繼續可持續地成長收入，從而提高利潤率。

And that constant currency number, which is well into double digits, still assumes the commodity hit and the tariff hit.

而這個恆定的貨幣數字，遠達到兩位數，仍然假設大宗商品受到衝擊和關稅受到衝擊。

So if all of that goes away, we're in a much better place.

因此，如果所有這些都消失了，我們就會處於一個更好的境地。

Now the second question, as we'll rightly move to is what to -- that doesn't just affect P&G.

現在我們要討論的第二個問題是做什麼——這不僅影響寶潔公司。

It affects other competitors on what do they do with that savings.

它會影響其他競爭對手如何利用這些節省下來的資金。

And do they spend that back?

他們會把這筆錢花回來嗎？

Do they take it to the bottom line?

他們會把它帶到底線嗎？

How is it spent back?

又怎麼花回來呢？

All of that will have an impact on what actually happens from a bottom line standpoint in the scenario that you just described.

在您剛才描述的場景中，從底線的角度來看，所有這些都會對實際發生的情況產生影響。

But clearly, it would be a more -- it's hard to imagine it wouldn't be a more positive scenario, and we're hopeful that's the case.

但顯然，這將是一個更加 - 很難想像這不會是一個更積極的情況，我們希望情況確實如此。

Having said that, as we went into last year, and this is why I'm kind of anchored to fairly wide ranges because I think it reflects reality, we went into last year and within months, had an additional $400 million after-tax and currency impacts alone.

話雖如此，當我們進入去年時，這就是為什麼我有點錨定在相當廣泛的範圍內，因為我認為這反映了現實，我們進入去年並在幾個月內，有額外的4 億美元稅後和僅貨幣影響。

And then we had the introduction of the tariffs as we went through the year.

然後我們在這一年中引入了關稅。

So it's -- I would encourage you to think in ranges.

所以，我鼓勵你在一定範圍內思考。

Next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。

First, just wanted to go back to the operating leverage or lack of leverage in the results.

首先，只想回到結果中的營運槓桿或缺乏槓桿。

And wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about the FX impact and why, given the significant weight of the U.S., the impact is so much higher on earnings than it is on sales, and if there's anything you could do about that over time.

想知道您是否可以多談談外匯影響，以及為什麼考慮到美國的重要地位，其對收益的影響遠高於對銷售的影響，以及您是否可以對此採取任何措施時間。

So that'd be the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And then second, just a little bit more detail on e-commerce, great overall results, up 20% globally.

其次，關於電子商務的更多細節，整體結果非常好，全球成長了 20%。

Could you give us a little bit more detail in terms of how the U.S. did, how China did and whether you're gaining share or not on e-commerce?

您能否更詳細地介紹美國的做法、中國的做法以及您是否在電子商務領域獲得了份額？

Well, in terms of currency on margin, the impact, if you look at gross margin, as we said in our prepared remarks, it was flat all-in on a core basis versus year ago.

嗯，就保證金貨幣而言，如果你看一下毛利率，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，與一年前相比，它的核心基礎上持平。

Constant currency was plus 60 basis points.

固定匯率加 60 個基點。

So you get an idea of the impact on gross margin.

這樣您就可以了解對毛利率的影響。

On operating margin, we were 60 basis points down versus year ago all-in core, and ex currency, we were 40 basis points up.

營業利益率與去年同期相比下降了 60 個基點，扣除匯率因素後，我們上升了 40 個基點。

So again, with that top line result as hopefully currency annualizes and doesn't -- in a scenario where it doesn't continue to devalue, there should be a significant leverage within the income statement that hasn't existed this year as we've tried to work our way through that.

因此，再次強調，鑑於貨幣有望實現年化，但在貨幣不繼續貶值的情況下，損益表中應該存在今年不存在的重大槓桿作用。

E-commerce, we're doing well on a geographic basis pretty broadly.

電子商務方面，我們在相當廣泛的地理範圍內做得很好。

There are a lot of dynamics within individual retail accounts, which drive a fairly high degree of volatility within the result.

個人零售帳戶內存在著許多動態，導致結果出現相當高的波動性。

But if you trend it out beyond one quarter, we continue to make really significant progress.

但如果你觀察一個季度之後的趨勢，我們將繼續取得真正重大的進展。

We still have a share opportunity.

我們還有分享的機會。

We're growing share in China, but our shares in e-commerce are still lower than offline.

我們在中國的份額正在成長，但我們在電子商務方面的份額仍然低於線下。

So that continues to present an opportunity, but we're closing that gap quarter-on-quarter.

因此，這繼續提供了機會，但我們正在逐季度縮小這一差距。

In the U.S., our shares are more representative on the online business of our offline position.

在美國，我們的股票更能代表我們線下業務的線上業務。

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Well, thanks, everybody.

嗯，謝謝大家。

Again, I think a very, very strong quarter.

我再次認為這是一個非常非常強勁的季度。

I do believe these kinds of results or proximity of them should be sustainable going forward, and we should be able to drive more leverage to the income statement in a more benign FX environment, but very, very positive development sequentially.

我確實相信這些結果或接近結果應該是可持續的，而且我們應該能夠在更良性的外匯環境中提高損益表的槓桿率，但隨後會出現非常非常積極的發展。

So thanks for participating.

感謝您的參與。