寶潔 (PG) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter-End Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎來到寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。

P&G would like to remind you that today's discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements.

寶潔想提醒您，今天的討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。

If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

如果您參考寶潔最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您會看到對可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測存在重大差異的因素的討論。

Additionally, the company has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP and other financial measures.

此外，該公司還在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的全面對賬。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Moeller.

現在，我將把電話轉給寶潔公司的副董事長兼首席財務官喬恩·莫勒 (Jon Moeller)。

Good morning, good afternoon.

早上好，下午好。

We're going to keep prepared remarks on the short side today, we've locked in a fairly straightforward quarter, our recent Investor Day and the CAGNY conference coming up just -- in just a couple of weeks.

今天，我們將在做空方面保持準備好的言論，我們已經鎖定了一個相當簡單的季度，我們最近的投資者日和 CAGNY 會議即將舉行——在短短幾週內。

We'll share result headlines, comment briefly on strategic focus areas, update guidance for the fiscal year and then open the call for your questions.

我們將分享結果標題，簡要評論戰略重點領域，更新本財年的指南，然後開始徵集您的問題。

So getting right to it.

所以正確對待它。

We delivered a strong organic sales -- we delivered strong organic sales growth in the October-December quarter, putting us ahead of fiscal year targets.

我們實現了強勁的有機銷售——我們在 10 月至 12 月季度實現了強勁的有機銷售增長，使我們提前實現了財年目標。

Organic sales grew 4%, driven by volume, pricing and mix.

在數量、定價和組合的推動下，有機銷售額增長了 4%。

Eight out of 10 global categories grew organic sales: Skin & Personal Care in the teens; Fabric Care and Feminine Care, high singles; Family Care, Oral Care and Personal Health Care, mid-single digits.

全球 10 個類別中有 8 個類別實現了有機銷售額增長：青少年的皮膚和個人護理；織物護理和女性護理，高級單品；家庭護理、口腔護理和個人保健，中個位數。

Each of our top 15 markets grew organic sales, with China up 15%, India up 16% and Japan up 9%.

我們排名前 15 位的市場均實現有機銷售額增長，其中中國增長 15%，印度增長 16%，日本增長 9%。

E-commerce organic sales grew nearly 30%.

電子商務有機銷售額增長近 30%。

Our naturals entries continued to drive growth, including Pampers Pure Protection diapers, Burt's Bees toothpaste and Native deodorants which we recently expanded into Target stores.

我們的天然產品繼續推動增長，包括 Pampers Pure Protection 尿布、Burt's Bees 牙膏和我們最近擴展到 Target 商店的 Native 除臭劑。

We built aggregate market share.

我們建立了總體市場份額。

34 of our top 50 country category combinations held or grew value share, up from 26% last fiscal year, 23% in fiscal '17 and 17% in fiscal '16.

在我們排名前 50 位的國家/地區類別組合中，有 34 個保持或增長了價值份額，高於上一財年的 26%、17 財年的 23% 和 16 財年的 17%。

Within this strong sequential and absolute progress, we continue to have some challenges.

在這一強勁的連續和絕對進步中，我們繼續面臨一些挑戰。

Grooming organic sales were down low singles.

美容有機銷售低單打。

Global Baby Care trends improved, but with organic sales only at the level of the prior year.

全球嬰兒護理趨勢有所改善，但有機銷售額僅與上一年持平。

In total, though, consumption, volume, sales and share are each progressing nicely.

不過，總的來說，消費、數量、銷售額和份額都取得了很好的進展。

We also delivered strong constant currency earnings growth.

我們還實現了強勁的持續貨幣收益增長。

Core earnings per share was $1.25, up 5% versus the prior year.

每股核心收益為 1.25 美元，比上年增長 5%。

Within this, foreign exchange was a $200 million after-tax earnings headwind, about $0.09 per share.

其中，外匯是 2 億美元的稅後收益逆風，約為每股 0.09 美元。

So on a constant currency basis, core earnings per share up 13%.

因此，按固定匯率計算，每股核心收益增長 13%。

Gross and operating margins improved sequentially, as expected, net strong underlying earnings progress.

正如預期的那樣，毛利率和營業利潤率環比提高，淨利潤增長強勁。

Cash flow also remained strong with $4 billion in operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow productivity of 103%.

現金流也保持強勁，運營現金流為 40 億美元，調整後的自由現金流生產率為 103%。

$2.6 billion of cash was returned to shareowners, $750 million of share repurchase and $1.9 billion of dividend.

26 億美元的現金返還給了股東，7.5 億美元的股票回購和 19 億美元的股息。

We completed the acquisition of the Merck KGaA OTC assets, significantly enhancing our international presence in Personal Health Care.

我們完成了對 Merck KGaA OTC 資產的收購，顯著增強了我們在個人保健領域的國際影響力。

We also acquired Walker & Co., with products designed to serve the unique needs of consumers of color.

我們還收購了 Walker & Co.，其產品旨在滿足有色人種消費者的獨特需求。

In summary, a strong quarter: Solid consumption, volume and organic sales growth driving positive market share trends across categories and geographies; strong constant currency core earnings per share growth; and continued high levels of cash generated and returned to shareowners; all delivered while working to address some category-specific challenges and against a very difficult competitive and macro landscape.

總之，這是一個強勁的季度：穩定的消費、銷量和有機銷售增長推動了跨類別和地區的積極市場份額趨勢；強勁的恆定貨幣核心每股收益增長；持續產生並返還給股東的大量現金；所有這些都是在努力應對一些特定類別的挑戰並應對非常困難的競爭和宏觀環境的同時交付的。

We continue to accelerate change through our program of constructive disruption to meet the remaining challenges we face and to further improve results.

我們繼續通過我們的建設性破壞計劃來加速變革，以應對我們面臨的剩餘挑戰並進一步改善結果。

Our strategic focus areas remain constant.

我們的戰略重點領域保持不變。

We've made a deliberate choice to invest, as you know, in the superiority of our products and packages, retail execution, marketing and value not just in the premium tier but in each priced tier where we compete, strengthening the long-term health and competitiveness of our brands.

如您所知，我們經過深思熟慮地選擇投資於我們產品和包裝的優勢、零售執行、營銷和價值，不僅在高端，而且在我們競爭的每個價格層，加強長期健康和我們品牌的競爭力。

We're making solid progress on extending our margin of advantage and increasing the quality of our execution, which show in our results, as I mentioned earlier, sequential share progress over multiple years.

正如我之前提到的，我們在擴大優勢幅度和提高執行質量方面取得了穩步進展，這在我們的結果中顯示了多年來的連續份額增長。

Additional investment will be needed to continue this progress.

需要額外投資才能繼續取得進展。

The need for this investment, the need to offset macro cost headwinds and the need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscores the continued importance of productivity.

對這項投資的需求、抵消宏觀成本不利因素的需求以及推動收入和利潤平衡增長（包括利潤率擴張）的需求，都凸顯了生產力的持續重要性。

We are continuing cost savings and efficiency improvements in all facets of our business, approaching the midpoint of our second 5-year $10 billion productivity program.

我們在業務的各個方面繼續節約成本和提高效率，接近我們第二個 5 年 100 億美元生產力計劃的中點。

We've consistently delivered $1.2 billion to $1.6 million in annual cost of goods sold savings.

我們一直在每年節省 12 億至 160 萬美元的商品銷售成本。

We're eliminating substantial waste in the media supply chain, delivering nearly $1 billion of savings in agency fees and ad production cost over the last 4 years.

我們正在消除媒體供應鏈中的大量浪費，在過去 4 年中節省了近 10 億美元的代理費和廣告製作成本。

We see more savings potential in these areas, along with more efficiency in media delivery.

我們在這些領域看到了更多的節約潛力，以及更高的媒體交付效率。

We're continuing to drive savings in organization cost.

我們將繼續推動組織成本的節省。

Total enrollment is down nearly 30% since the start of our first productivity program, about 35% when including contractor role elimination.

自我們的第一個生產力計劃開始以來，總註冊人數下降了近 30%，如果包括取消承包商角色，則下降了約 35%。

P&G is a highly profitable company.

寶潔是一家高利潤的公司。

Before-tax operating margins are among the highest in the industry, behind only Reckitt and Colgate, whose margins reflect their concentrations in health care.

稅前營業利潤率是業內最高的，僅次於 Reckitt 和 Colgate，後者的利潤率反映了他們在醫療保健領域的集中度。

We have significant below-the-line advantages, operating with one of the lowest interest expense percentages and one of the lowest tax rates, putting us near the top of the industry in after-tax margin, already highly profitable and aggressively driving more savings.

我們擁有顯著的線下優勢，以最低的利息支出百分比和最低的稅率之一運營，使我們的稅後利潤率接近行業領先水平，已經實現高利潤並積極推動更多儲蓄。

We're also focused on cash productivity with significant progress in all areas of working capital.

我們還專注於現金生產率，在營運資本的所有領域都取得了重大進展。

Over the past 5 years, we've improved receivables by 3 days, inventory by 10 days and payables by more than 30 days, enabling us to fund capital spending needed to transform our global supply chain.

在過去 5 年中，我們將應收賬款縮短了 3 天，庫存縮短了 10 天，應付賬款縮短了 30 多天，使我們能夠為全球供應鏈轉型所需的資本支出提供資金。

Over the last 7 fiscal years, we've averaged nearly 100% adjusted free cash flow productivity and have returned an average of over 110% of reported net earnings to shareowners through dividends and share repurchase.

在過去的 7 個財政年度中，我們的調整後自由現金流生產率平均接近 100%，並且通過股息和股票回購將平均超過 110% 的報告淨收益返還給股東。

We're making organization structure and culture changes to strengthen our position to win.

我們正在改變組織結構和文化，以鞏固我們的製勝地位。

We're taking steps to simplify the organization structure, focus effort, clarify responsibility and increase accountability.

我們正在採取措施，簡化組織結構，集中力量，明確責任，加強問責制。

We're supplementing internal talent development with experienced external hiring and we're building category dedication and mastery.

我們正在通過經驗豐富的外部招聘來補充內部人才發展，我們正在建立類別奉獻和掌握。

We're strengthening compensation and incentive programs.

我們正在加強薪酬和激勵計劃。

As we discussed in detail at our Investor Day, we're moving to a new organization structure to further de-matrix the company and provide even greater clarity on responsibilities and reporting lines to focus and strengthen leadership accountability.

正如我們在投資者日上詳細討論的那樣，我們正在轉向一個新的組織結構，以進一步對公司進行去矩陣化，並提供更加清晰的責任和報告路線，以集中和加強領導問責制。

We're significantly reducing the level of corporate resources, moving about 60% of corporate roles to the business units and markets.

我們正在顯著減少公司資源的水平，將大約 60% 的公司角色轉移到業務部門和市場。

At the same time, we're leading the constructive disruption of our industry: Lean innovation processes to improve speed to market, shots on goal and success rates of new products, monetizing internally developed technologies to build value and fund even more innovation investment, disrupting the brand-building ecosystem with digitally enabled 1:1 mass marketing, supply chain transformation enabled by robotic process automation and leveraging digitization and data analytics to drive greater efficiency and effectiveness of all facets of our operation.

與此同時，我們正在引領我們行業的建設性顛覆：精益創新流程以提高上市速度、目標命中率和新產品的成功率，將內部開發的技術貨幣化以創造價值並為更多創新投資提供資金，顛覆品牌建設生態系統，通過數字化方式實現 1:1 大眾營銷，通過機器人過程自動化實現供應鏈轉型，並利用數字化和數據分析來提高我們運營各個方面的效率和有效性。

We are creating a more engaged, agile and accountable organization operating at a lower cost, focused on winning through superiority, fueled by productivity, working at the speed of the market.

我們正在創建一個以更低的成本運營的更加參與、敏捷和負責任的組織，專注於通過優勢取勝，以生產力為動力，以市場的速度工作。

We're working urgently to sustain our near-term momentum and to position P&G to win over the mid and long term.

我們正在緊急工作以維持我們的近期勢頭，並使寶潔在中長期內取得勝利。

Moving to guidance.

轉向指導。

Having delivered a strong first half of the fiscal year, we're increasing the high end of the organic sales growth range by 1 point, making the new growth range 2% to 4%.

在本財年上半年表現強勁之後，我們將有機銷售增長范圍的上限提高了 1 個百分點，使新的增長范圍達到 2% 至 4%。

We have strong innovation and support plans for the back half of the year: Gillette Skin Guard in the U.S. and Europe; upgrades to Tide and Ariel unit dose PODS in North America, Europe and Japan; [expansion] of Crest and Oral-B Gum Detoxify toothpaste to Latin America; continued support of Vicks VapoCOOL, NyQuil, DayQuil and cough drops through the cold and flu season; Pantene Rose Water Sulfate-Free shampoo and conditioner; formula and packaging upgrades on Head & Shoulders; new Olay vitality mask and creams in China; fit upgrade on Pampers Cruisers; and continued strong support behind the range of Always, Whisper, Tampax and Always Discreet innovations we've launched recently around the world.

下半年我們有強大的創新和支持計劃：美國和歐洲的 Gillette Skin Guard；在北美、歐洲和日本升級到 Tide 和 Ariel 單位劑量 PODS； [擴展] Crest 和 Oral-B Gum Detoxify 牙膏到拉丁美洲；在感冒和流感季節繼續支持 Vicks VapoCOOL、NyQuil、DayQuil 和止咳藥；潘婷玫瑰水無硫酸鹽洗髮水和護髮素；海飛絲的配方和包裝升級；新的玉蘭油活力面膜和麵霜在中國上市；適合幫寶適 Cruisers 升級；以及我們最近在全球推出的 Always、Whisper、Tampax 和 Always Discreet 創新系列背後的持續大力支持。

We're innovating and investing to maintain top line momentum, but we're also realistic about the market and competitive dynamics that will impact us in the back half of the fiscal year.

我們正在創新和投資以保持營收勢頭，但我們也對將在本財年下半年影響我們的市場和競爭動態持現實態度。

Pricing should remain positive in the back half, but this will increase volume uncertainty and volatility.

下半年定價應保持正值，但這將增加銷量的不確定性和波動性。

We face highly capable competitors with strong plans of their own, macro uncertainty stemming from issues like Brexit, a crisis in consumer confidence in France and trade and other policy impacts that can impact both the top and bottom line.

我們面臨有能力的競爭對手，他們有自己的強大計劃，英國脫歐等問題帶來的宏觀不確定性，法國消費者信心危機以及貿易和其他可能影響頂線和底線的政策影響。

Our efforts and results fiscal year-to-date and the totality of these tailwinds and headwinds leave us comfortable increasing our organic sales guidance, albeit within a relatively wide range.

我們本財年迄今的努力和成果以及這些順風和逆風的總和讓我們放心地增加我們的有機銷售指導，儘管在相對廣泛的範圍內。

We now expect all-in sales growth in the range of down 1% to up 1% versus last year, reflecting 3 to 4 negative points from foreign exchange.

我們現在預計與去年相比，總銷售額增長將下降 1% 至上升 1%，這反映了 3 至 4 個來自外彙的負點。

We're maintaining core earnings per share guidance of 3% to 8%, having delivered about 4% fiscal year-to-date.

我們將核心每股收益指引維持在 3% 至 8%，本財年迄今已交付約 4%。

The combination of stronger-than-expected organic sales growth and productivity-driven cost savings are offsetting a significantly larger challenge from foreign exchange and commodity costs than we originally anticipated.

強於預期的有機銷售增長和生產力驅動的成本節約相結合，抵消了外彙和商品成本帶來的比我們原先預期更大的挑戰。

Our fiscal year earnings outlook includes a potential gain on the sale of land at our Gillette site in Boston.

我們的財政年度收益展望包括出售我們位於波士頓的吉列工廠的土地的潛在收益。

The land sale, if it occurs this fiscal, will likely contribute around 1 point of earnings per share growth for the year.

土地出售如果在本財政年度發生，可能會為本年度每股收益增長貢獻約 1 個百分點。

We're currently forecasting a foreign exchange headwind on earnings of about $900 million after tax.

我們目前預測稅後收益將出現約 9 億美元的外匯逆風。

Commodity costs are expected to be a $400 million headwind and trucking cost will likely be up 25% or more versus last year's levels.

商品成本預計將是 4 億美元的不利因素，而卡車運輸成本可能比去年的水平增長 25% 或更多。

Combined FX, commodities and transportation are nearly a $1.4 billion after-tax headwind, $0.53 per share.

外匯、大宗商品和運輸的綜合影響接近 14 億美元的稅後逆風，即每股 0.53 美元。

As commodity prices and foreign exchange rates move, we will take pricing when the degree of cost impact warrants it and competitive realities allow it.

隨著大宗商品價格和外匯匯率的變化，我們將在成本影響程度需要且競爭現實允許的情況下進行定價。

There will be top line volatility with these pricing moves.

這些定價變動將帶來頂線波動。

Competition may attempt to take advantage of our moves for short-term market share gains.

競爭可能會試圖利用我們的舉措來獲取短期市場份額。

Overall category consumption may be negatively impacted.

整體品類消費可能會受到負面影響。

We'll have to adjust as we go and as we learn.

我們必須邊走邊學，不斷調整。

In any scenario, we'll aim to protect superiority-building, value-accretive investments in the business.

在任何情況下，我們的目標都是保護建立優勢、增值業務的投資。

We won't allow short-term pressures to derail the progress we're making towards sustained profitable top line growth.

我們不會讓短期壓力破壞我們在持續盈利增長方面取得的進展。

Our outlook for items below the operating line is unchanged.

我們對運營線以下項目的前景保持不變。

We now expect to exceed our target of 90% adjusted free cash flow productivity.

我們現在預計將超過 90% 的調整後自由現金流生產率目標。

This includes CapEx in the range of 5% to 5.5%.

這包括 5% 至 5.5% 範圍內的資本支出。

It will be another year of strong cash return to shareholders.

這將是又一年為股東帶來豐厚現金回報的一年。

We expect to pay over $7 billion in dividends and repurchase up to $5 billion of shares in fiscal 2019.

我們預計將在 2019 財年支付超過 70 億美元的股息並回購高達 50 億美元的股票。

This share repurchase range factors in the cash required to complete the acquisition of Merck's OTC business and other transactions.

完成收購默克公司的場外交易業務和其他交易所需的現金是此次股票回購範圍的因素。

Our guidance is based on current market growth rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.

我們的指導基於當前的市場增長率、商品價格和外匯匯率。

Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases or additional geopolitical disruptions are not anticipated within this guidance.

本指南預計不會出現嚴重的額外貨幣疲軟、商品成本增加或額外的地緣政治干擾。

To sum up, the external environment presents many challenges.

綜上所述，外部環境帶來諸多挑戰。

To address these challenges and further strengthen results, we continue to accelerate the pace of change.

為了應對這些挑戰並進一步鞏固成果，我們繼續加快變革步伐。

Efforts to extend our margin of competitive superiority, to drive productivity savings to fund investments for growth and enhance our industry-leading margins, to simplify our organizational structure and increase accountability, to constructively disrupt our industry, are and will continue driving improved results and will help us achieve our objective of consistently and sustainably growing sales, margin and cash.

努力擴大我們的競爭優勢，推動生產力節約，為增長投資提供資金，提高我們行業領先的利潤率，簡化我們的組織結構和加強問責制，建設性地顛覆我們的行業，正在並將繼續推動改善結果，並將繼續幫助我們實現持續和可持續增長的銷售額、利潤和現金的目標。

With that, I'm happy to turn to your questions.

有了這個，我很樂意回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

（操作員說明）你的第一個問題來自花旗的 Wendy Nicholson。

Could you talk a little bit more about China?

你能多談談中國嗎？

Up 15%, I think, is a lot stronger than most of us were expecting.

我認為，增長 15% 比我們大多數人預期的要強勁得多。

Could you comment specifically on SK-II and Olay in China and how they did in the quarter, and what your outlook is for the next -- for the second half?

您能否具體評論一下中國的 SK-II 和玉蘭油以及它們在本季度的表現，以及您對下半年的展望？

Thanks, Wendy.

謝謝，溫迪。

It's been a strong first half and a second quarter in China.

中國上半年和第二季度表現強勁。

If you look at annually, the organic sales progression in China going back 3 years, it's been minus 5%, plus 1%, plus 7% last year and plus 9% for the first half this year, and as you indicated, above that rate in the second quarter.

如果你每年看一下，過去 3 年中國的有機銷售增長是負 5%，去年增長 1%，今年上半年增長 9%，正如你所說，高於這個第二季度的利率。

We do not see a sign at this point of slowdown of the consumer in China, as witnessed by those results.

正如這些結果所證明的那樣，我們目前沒有看到中國消費者放緩的跡象。

Market growth rates continue to be relatively strong.

市場增長率繼續保持相對強勁。

Within China, just like the balance of the business, we have our successes and our challenges.

在中國，就像業務的天平一樣，我們有成功也有挑戰。

SK-II and Olay are obviously in the success column with Skin Care, both SK-II and Olay growing strong double digits for several consecutive quarters.

SK-II 和玉蘭油顯然在護膚品方面名列前茅，SK-II 和玉蘭油連續幾個季度實現兩位數的強勁增長。

The next question comes from the line with Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Jason English 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Two questions for you.

兩個問題問你。

First, the change on the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion drag on earnings from cost pressure and currency.

首先，13 億美元至 14 億美元的變化拖累了成本壓力和貨幣對收益的拖累。

I think the $900 million you gave on currency is the same as what you gave last quarter.

我認為你在貨幣上付出的 9 億美元與你上個季度付出的相同。

The $400 million in commodities is -- looks to be the same.

4 億美元的商品——看起來是一樣的。

So it sounds like the bulk, I think, is the -- you obviously put a lot of focus on freight.

所以我認為，這聽起來像是——你顯然非常關注貨運。

Is freight the incremental driver?

貨運是增量驅動力嗎？

And if so, why -- kind of what changed?

如果是這樣，為什麼——改變了什麼？

Because it seems to contrast with what we've seen of a bit of an abatement of some of that cost pressure.

因為這似乎與我們所看到的一些成本壓力有所減輕形成鮮明對比。

That's question one.

這是第一個問題。

And question two, another source of strength.

問題二，另一個力量來源。

And by the way, congratulations on the broad-based momentum.

順便說一句，祝賀基礎廣泛的勢頭。

Laundry's acceleration has been impressive.

Laundry 的發展速度令人印象深刻。

You had a key competitor early this week announce plans for a lot of reinvestment.

本週早些時候，您的主要競爭對手宣布了大量再投資計劃。

Can you talk about your own investment plans going forward, and how you sustain the momentum in the face of what may be a bit more disruptive competition?

您能否談談您自己的未來投資計劃，以及您如何在可能更具破壞性的競爭中保持勢頭？

You're exactly right, Jason, in terms of your interpretation of the drivers of the $1.3 billion moving to $1.4 billion in terms of headwind, and that is ongoing premiums in transportation cost.

傑森，你完全正確，就你對逆風方面 13 億美元轉向 14 億美元的驅動因素的解釋而言，這是運輸成本的持續溢價。

And I think the situation is exacerbated a little bit simply by the strength of the business and the demand that we're placing on that transportation system and just reflective of what we see.

而且我認為，由於業務實力和我們對該運輸系統的需求以及我們所看到的情況的反映，這種情況會有所惡化。

We're managing that, I think, well and putting steps in place, systems in place that should reduce that burden going forward.

我認為，我們正在很好地管理它，並採取適當的措施和適當的系統來減輕未來的負擔。

But for the balance of this fiscal year, that's what we're currently seeing.

但對於本財政年度的餘額，這就是我們目前所看到的。

Our laundry business is doing, as you mentioned, extraordinarily well.

正如您提到的，我們的洗衣業務做得非常好。

It had a really great quarter and great first half.

它有一個非常棒的季度和上半場。

And it's really the poster child in many ways for the strategy that we're working against, which is performance superiority, along with packaging, communication, in-store execution and value, all working for us in that business, with things like unit dose detergents, which continue to increase household penetration and market share.

在許多方面，它確實是我們正在努力應對的戰略的典型代表，即性能優勢，以及包裝、溝通、店內執行和價值，所有這些都為我們在該業務中發揮作用，例如單位劑量洗滌劑，繼續提高家庭滲透率和市場份額。

Our share within that segment, as you know, is very high at 80-ish-percent.

如您所知，我們在該細分市場中的份額非常高，達到 80%。

Items like the fabric enhancer beads growing double digits, that's a premium-product priced item, all of that driving category growth, which is extraordinarily important for both us and our retail partners.

像織物增強劑珠子這樣的項目增長了兩位數，這是一種優質產品定價的項目，所有這些都推動了類別增長，這對我們和我們的零售合作夥伴都非常重要。

And within that, ourselves building share, as we will do, if we are the drivers of category growth.

如果我們是類別增長的驅動力，那麼我們將在其中建立份額，就像我們將做的那樣。

Doing that through increased investment, facilitated by productivity improvement, just as I said, kind of a poster child for the strategy that we're working against.

正如我所說，通過增加投資，提高生產力來實現這一目標，就像我們正在努力反對的戰略的典型代表。

Henkel and Persil had been the strong competitor.

漢高和寶瑩一直是強勁的競爭對手。

If I just focus on the U.S., Persil remains at 2% to 3% value share.

如果我只關注美國，Persil 的價值份額仍保持在 2% 到 3%。

We don't expect competition to stand still.

我們不希望競爭停滯不前。

And going back to the strategy, that is what fuels our deliberate choice, amongst other things, to invest in the 5 vectors of superiority, always working to improve those and strengthen the long-term health and competitiveness of our brands.

回到戰略，這就是推動我們深思熟慮的選擇，除其他外，投資於 5 個優勢向量，始終致力於改善這些優勢並加強我們品牌的長期健康和競爭力。

We continue to innovate across our Fabric Care lineup.

我們繼續在我們的織物護理系列中進行創新。

We've got a strong spring bundle that we'll introduce to the U.S. markets in the upcoming quarter.

我們有一個強大的春季捆綁包，我們將在下個季度引入美國市場。

That includes Tide POD upgrades with improved film for better dissolution and perfume upgrades as well as 2 new scents, also innovating in the liquids space with heavy-duty 10x liquid, introducing products in new benefits spaces, Studio Delicates by Tide and Tide Antibacterial Spray.

這包括 Tide POD 升級，採用改進的薄膜以更好地溶解和香水升級以及 2 種新香味，還在液體領域進行創新，使用重型 10x 液體，在新的福利空間推出產品，Studio Delicates by Tide 和 Tide Antibacterial Spray。

And there will be upgrades on Gain, both liquids and Flings as well.

Gain 也會升級，包括 liquids 和 Flings。

So our competition is not standing still, nor are we.

所以我們的競爭並沒有停滯不前，我們也沒有。

Our next question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ali Dibadj 與 Bernstein 的對話。

So in the guidance for the year, it certainly seems like you're anticipating, at least the risk of a slowdown to top line growth.

因此，在今年的指導中，你似乎確實在期待，至少是收入增長放緩的風險。

Are you actually seeing anything yet to support that caution?

你真的看到任何支持這種謹慎的東西嗎？

Are you seeing competitive shifts?

你看到競爭的轉變了嗎？

We've certainly heard from Henkel from a moment ago and before.

我們肯定從剛才和之前聽到了漢高的消息。

But are you seeing competitive shifts?

但是你看到競爭的轉變了嗎？

Are you seeing any merchandising or inventory shifts at retailers?

您是否看到零售商有任何商品銷售或庫存變化？

And importantly, are you seeing any fatigue with trade-up among the consumers at this point in the economic cycle?

重要的是，在經濟周期的這個階段，您是否看到消費者對升級換代感到厭倦？

And how sustainable do you think that is.

你認為這有多可持續。

And then within that, this 4% organic growth number which you continue to deliver on strongly, is there any way to disaggregate that a little bit in terms of what is, I don't know, same-store sales, so to speak, versus new shelf space, new product launches?

然後在其中，你繼續強勁實現的這個 4% 的有機增長數字，有什麼方法可以根據我不知道的同店銷售額來分解它，可以這麼說，與新貨架空間、新產品發布相比？

You mentioned Native in Target, those types of things, just to give us a sense of new versus old in terms of the growth.

你在 Target 中提到了 Native，這些類型的東西，只是為了讓我們了解增長方面的新舊對比。

So as it relates to the guidance range, I mean, the move here is a positive move, reflecting more confidence in the business, not a negative move.

因此，就指導範圍而言，我的意思是，這裡的舉措是積極的舉措，反映出對企業更有信心，而不是消極舉措。

So we're increasing the top line, the top end of the top line guidance range, as you note, from 3% to 4%.

所以我們正在增加頂線，頂線指導範圍的頂端，正如你所注意到的，從 3% 到 4%。

And we wouldn't be doing that if we had obvious knowable issues that were confronting us today and didn't have the confidence to potentially overcome them.

如果我們今天面臨著明顯可知的問題並且沒有信心潛在地克服這些問題，我們就不會這樣做。

Having said that, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, the level of volatility and uncertainty that exists across multiple factors which are out of our control which impact our business, as you mentioned, competitive behavior, which we expect will be strong in response to our share gains; but even more importantly, the macroeconomic dynamics and the significant uncertainty that's introduced into the equation when we start moving price significantly, as we've all seen in previous cycles.

話雖如此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們無法控制的多種因素之間存在的波動性和不確定性水平會影響我們的業務，正如您提到的，我們預計競爭行為將強烈響應我們的份額收益；但更重要的是，當我們開始大幅調整價格時，宏觀經濟動態和顯著的不確定性被引入方程式，正如我們在之前的周期中所看到的那樣。

So it expressed increased confidence, not decreased confidence, but with an open-eyed reality to the volatility of the world that we live in and with the belief that it is too early to declare victory.

因此，它表達了增強的信心，而不是減弱的信心，而是對我們生活的世界的動盪持開放態度，並相信現在宣布勝利還為時過早。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Can I focus on Grooming.

我可以專注於美容嗎？

It's a difficult business to assess the health of from the outside.

從外部評估健康狀況是一件困難的事情。

Clearly, it was a big driver of strength in the first quarter, yet a drag here in the second quarter.

顯然，它在第一季度是強勁的動力，但在第二季度卻成為拖累。

And I know promotional timing and quarter-to-quarter mix just tends to be more lumpy in that business.

而且我知道促銷時間和季度到季度的組合在該業務中往往更加不穩定。

But as you think about the full year and the momentum in that business, is the first half run rate indicative of what roughly you expect over the full year?

但是當你考慮全年和該業務的勢頭時，上半年的運行率是否表明了你對全年的大致預期？

Or do you feel as though the second half can show improved momentum off that first half run rate, given initiatives that, that business has underway?

或者，鑑於該業務正在進行的舉措，您是否覺得下半年可以顯示出比上半年運行率更高的勢頭？

I'm just trying to understand how you feel, kind of red light, green light, yellow light on Grooming generally.

我只是想了解您的感受，一般在 Grooming 上有紅燈、綠燈、黃燈。

Thanks, Steve, and I apologize.

謝謝，史蒂夫，我道歉。

I fell into my usual trap and neglected a few of Ali's questions.

我落入了慣常的陷阱，忽略了阿里的幾個問題。

I want to go back to those and then come back, Steve, to yours.

我想回到那些，然後回到你的，史蒂夫。

Ali, you asked about -- I won't get to all of it, but you asked about fatigue on trade-up.

阿里，你問的是——我不會全部說，但你問的是換購疲勞。

We do not see that.

我們沒有看到這一點。

Our premium items are some of the faster-growing items in our portfolio.

我們的優質產品是我們產品組合中增長較快的一些產品。

When I described what's happening in laundry, for example, that growth is really being driven by items that, on a per load basis, are premium-priced.

例如，當我描述洗衣店正在發生的事情時，這種增長實際上是由按負載計算的高價商品推動的。

If you look at private label as one indicator of trade-up fatigue, or perhaps even the reversal of consumer desire, we don't see significant changes quarter-to-quarter.

如果您將自有品牌視為換購疲勞的一個指標，或者甚至可能是消費者慾望的逆轉，我們看不到季度之間的顯著變化。

Europe, private label shares remain flat as they have the last 3 years.

歐洲，自有品牌份額與過去 3 年一樣持平。

It's obviously different by category, I'm talking in aggregate.

顯然按類別不同，我說的是總體。

And the U.S., private label is up 50 basis points, primarily in 3 categories.

在美國，自有品牌上漲了 50 個基點，主要集中在 3 個類別。

Our share is also up in the U.S., so there's no indication of a broad scale shift from premium-brand, superior offerings, wholesale to private label.

我們在美國的份額也有所上升，因此沒有跡象表明從優質品牌、優質產品、批發到自有品牌的大規模轉變。

And in terms of the question on, if you will, the equivalent of same-store sales, I really don't have that data, and it's very hard to tease apart.

至於這個問題，如果你願意的話，相當於同店銷售額，我真的沒有那個數據，而且很難分開。

But what I'll tell you is we do not win from a market growth or share standpoint if we don't do both.

但我要告訴你的是，如果我們不同時做到這兩點，那麼從市場增長或份額的角度來看，我們就不會獲勝。

Our core needs to be strong.

我們的核心需要強大。

We need to innovate in our core, [communicate] in our core.

我們需要在我們的核心中進行創新，在我們的核心中進行[交流]。

That's the largest part of our business.

這是我們業務的最大部分。

At the same time, we need to meet the needs, the emerging needs of consumers which are emerging more quickly than they ever have.

與此同時，我們需要滿足消費者比以往任何時候都更快出現的新需求。

And whether that's new forms, new segments, new needs.

以及這是否是新形式、新細分市場、新需求。

And that, we've stepped up our activity there significantly.

而且，我們已經大大加強了我們在那裡的活動。

Look at the naturals segment, that's one example where our pace of activity is as high as anybody's.

看看自然部分，這是我們活動節奏與任何人一樣高的一個例子。

But still, if we did student-body right, focused entirely on naturals and neglected our core, we'd be in a very, very bad place.

但是，如果我們正確對待學生團體，完全專注於自然而忽視我們的核心，我們將處於非常非常糟糕的境地。

So I think we've got -- maybe to the spirit of your question, I think we've got a much better balance today than we've had historically.

所以我認為我們已經 - 也許就你問題的精神而言，我認為我們今天的平衡比歷史上要好得多。

I feel good about that, but it's the right question to keep focusing on.

我對此感覺很好，但這是繼續關注的正確問題。

Steve, as it relates to shaving, first of all, on a global basis from a market share standpoint, we're about flat versus the prior periods.

史蒂夫，因為它與剃須有關，首先，從市場份額的角度來看，在全球範圍內，我們與前期持平。

So there's some element of market that continues to impact the segment.

因此，有一些市場因素繼續影響該細分市場。

As category leaders, we have a responsibility to address that, which we're working to do.

作為類別領導者，我們有責任解決這個問題，我們正在努力做到這一點。

I think you're looking at it the right way in terms of pacing over a little bit longer period of time, call it the first half.

我認為你在較長一段時間內的節奏方面是正確的，稱之為上半場。

And I do think the first half in aggregate is representative of what the year should look like.

而且我確實認為上半年的總體情況代表了今年的情況。

We have very strong innovation in the back half of the year with Skin Guard being launched in both North America and Europe.

我們在今年下半年進行了非常強大的創新，在北美和歐洲推出了 Skin Guard。

We have some exciting news on the female side of the shop as well.

我們在商店的女性方面也有一些令人興奮的消息。

And we continue to make progress from a user standpoint on Gillette Shave Club.

從用戶的角度來看，我們在 Gillette Shave Club 上繼續取得進展。

So the first half run rate, I do think, is indicative of what we should be attempting to deliver over the year.

因此，我確實認為上半年的運行率表明了我們應該嘗試在一年中交付的內容。

Our next question comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dara Mohsenian 與摩根士丹利的對話。

So my questions are on the pricing environment.

所以我的問題是關於定價環境。

First, pricing accelerated sequentially for 2 straight quarters at the corporate level.

首先，公司層面的定價連續兩個季度加快。

Would you anticipate more progress sequentially in the back half of the year versus Q2 in terms of year-over-year pricing?

就同比定價而言，您是否預計今年下半年與第二季度相比會有更多進展？

And then second, in the U.S., wanted to get an update on how the price increases are going so far, both in terms of retailer receptivity and consumer demand elasticity as well as the competitive response you're seeing in the marketplace.

其次，在美國，想了解到目前為止價格上漲的最新情況，包括零售商接受度和消費者需求彈性以及您在市場上看到的競爭反應。

Thanks, Dara.

謝謝，達拉。

I would expect, on a mathematical basis, pricing to be a slightly stronger driver going forward simply because we'll have a full quarter of those prices in effect in both the second -- well, most of them in the third quarter and then certainly in the fourth quarter.

我希望，在數學基礎上，定價將成為一個稍微強大的推動力，因為我們將在第二個季度和第三個季度實施這些價格的四分之一，然後肯定會在第四季度。

Whereas even in the quarter we just completed, take for example, a pricing for devaluation in developing markets, but it wasn't a full quarter and all markets had that pricing reflected in our results.

即使在我們剛剛完成的那個季度，以發展中市場的貶值定價為例，但這還不是一個完整的季度，所有市場的定價都反映在我們的結果中。

So it's not a statement in terms of increasing the price component to the top line.

因此，這並不是將價格成分增加到頂線的聲明。

It's not a statement of intent, simply the mathematical expectation.

這不是意圖聲明，只是數學期望。

And then in terms of how that pricing is going, I apologize for this answer, but it really is too early to tell.

然後就定價如何進行而言，我為這個答案道歉，但現在下結論還為時過早。

Typically, it takes 6, even 9 months to understand exactly what's going to happen from a competitive standpoint, and we're just getting to the point on some of the initial price increases where we'll be able to understand the full retail response to both our pricing and competitive pricing, both of which have an impact, obviously, on our result.

通常，從競爭的角度來看，需要 6 個月甚至 9 個月的時間才能準確了解會發生什麼，而我們只是到了一些初始價格上漲的地步，我們將能夠了解零售業對我們的定價和有競爭力的定價，這兩者顯然都會對我們的結果產生影響。

So we're going to have to stay tuned on that one.

所以我們將不得不繼續關注那個。

Having said that, I would offer in broad terms that we have not seen anything definitive that would cause us to have a high level of concern.

話雖如此，我想從廣義上說，我們還沒有看到任何會引起我們高度關注的確定性因素。

And I make that statement again on an aggregate basis.

我在總體基礎上再次發表該聲明。

Across individual products and segments, categories and markets, there are always issues, but in aggregate, we're on track.

在單個產品和細分市場、類別和市場中，總是存在問題，但總的來說，我們正在走上正軌。

Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 Nik Modi 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Just 2 quick questions.

只需 2 個快速問題。

Jon, maybe you can talk about where the organic sales growth kind of overdelivered versus your going-in expectations, just to kind of get a sense of businesses that are seeing momentum faster than you had expected.

喬恩，也許你可以談談有機銷售增長在哪些方面超出了你的預期，只是為了了解企業的發展勢頭比你預期的要快。

And then the second question is I was hoping to get an update on some of the innovations that Procter has created that will be licensed out to other industries.

然後第二個問題是，我希望了解寶潔創造的一些創新的最新情況，這些創新將被授權給其他行業。

I think you talked about that, the plastic recycling innovation at the Analyst Day.

我想你在分析師日談到了塑料回收創新。

So just curious kind of where you are with that particular initiative.

所以只是好奇你在那個特定的倡議中所處的位置。

Thanks, Nik.

謝謝，尼克。

Really, the outperformance versus our going-in expectations was broad-based.

確實，與我們的預期相比，表現出色是基礎廣泛的。

And you see that when you look at the segment results, very strong across the businesses, with Grooming more or less in line with where we expected.

你會看到，當你查看細分市場的結果時，整個業務都非常強勁，而 Grooming 或多或少符合我們的預期。

So with that exception, each outperforming.

因此，除了那個例外，每個人都表現出色。

And that's true generally as well at a market level, particularly when I look at the first half of the year and the results across that first half.

這在市場層面上也是普遍存在的，尤其是當我查看今年上半年和上半年的結果時。

So I think that's very encouraging.

所以我認為這是非常令人鼓舞的。

The improvement stool here is not 1-legged, it's not yet 3-legged either.

這裡的改良凳不是單腳的，也不是三腳的。

But it's not 1-legged.

但它不是單足的。

In terms of -- I'm glad you mentioned the monetization effort relative to our innovation that can benefit multiple categories and industries.

就-我很高興你提到了與我們的創新相關的貨幣化努力，這可以使多個類別和行業受益。

I'm very excited about that as an opportunity to both create value -- really 3 things: To create value; to create fuel for even more P&G innovation, which is incredibly important; and to make an even broader difference in important areas like sustainability across multiple industries and for the benefit of a wide range of constituents.

我很高興這是一個創造價值的機會——實際上是三件事：創造價值；為寶潔的更多創新創造動力，這非常重要；並在跨多個行業的可持續性等重要領域產生更廣泛的影響，並造福廣大選民。

So that is -- when we talk about constructive disruption and changing our approach to doing business and thinking about new ways to create value for all the constituents we serve, that's a program I feel very, very good about.

那就是——當我們談論建設性的破壞和改變我們的經營方式並思考為我們服務的所有選民創造價值的新方法時，這是一個我感覺非常非常好的項目。

And we'll talk more about -- we'll provide some more color to that when we're at CAGNY together in 3 or 4 weeks.

當我們在 3 或 4 週後一起在 CAGNY 時，我們將討論更多 - 我們將為它提供更多顏色。

And your next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林銀行的 Olivia Tong。

In terms of the organic sales growth outlook, would love some additional color on what gets you from one end of the range to the other.

就有機銷售增長前景而言，會喜歡一些額外的顏色讓你從範圍的一端到另一端。

Because obviously, the first half trends were clearly very encouraging, but you hit the low end of the range.

因為很明顯，上半年的趨勢顯然非常令人鼓舞，但你觸及了該範圍的低端。

So a couple of things.

所以有幾件事。

First, where do you think retail inventory stands now?

首先，您認為零售庫存現在在哪裡？

Is there any concern around forward buying ahead of the price increases, particularly in emerging markets?

在價格上漲之前，尤其是在新興市場，人們是否擔心提前購買？

And was there something -- anything significant in terms of promo timings?

在促銷時間方面有什麼重要的事情嗎？

And just trying to better understand if you could break those particular buckets out a little bit.

並且只是想更好地了解您是否可以將這些特定的桶打破一點。

And then just secondly, if you could parse out the price contribution [of developed markets] versus [Audio Gap].

其次，如果你能分析出 [發達市場] 與 [音頻差距] 的價格貢獻。

I would really look at the first half top line results, Olivia, as clean, if you will.

如果你願意的話，我真的會看看上半場的頂級結果，奧利維亞，乾淨。

If you look at with -- if we look at consumption levels relative to our shipment and sales levels and triangulate with market share, everything is in line.

如果你看一下——如果我們看一下與我們的出貨量和銷售水平相關的消費水平，並與市場份額進行三角測量，一切都是一致的。

We don't see any significant -- of course, again, at the detailed level, there are always some variability.

我們沒有看到任何重要的——當然，在細節層面上，總是存在一些可變性。

But at a aggregate level, we don't see any significant inventory distortions or promotion distortions.

但總的來說，我們沒有看到任何明顯的庫存扭曲或促銷扭曲。

Again, at the category level, there can be some differences there.

同樣，在類別級別，那裡可能存在一些差異。

But generally, we look at the first half run rate as representative of the business, and we wouldn't have taken up the top end of the guidance range had we felt otherwise.

但總的來說，我們將上半年的運行率視為業務的代表，如果我們不這麼認為，我們就不會佔據指導範圍的上限。

And then we come back to what I was talking about earlier, which is just significant volatility that exists.

然後我們回到我之前所說的，這只是存在的顯著波動。

I mean, you've seen some of the competitive statements between Henkel yesterday and KC today.

我的意思是，你已經看到了昨天漢高和今天 KC 之間的一些競爭聲明。

Who knows what the trade situation is going to present to us, what it's going to be and what that's going to present to us in terms of not so much tariffs, though that is an impact, but the ability to, frankly, import and export products freely across markets.

誰知道貿易形勢將呈現給我們的是什麼，它將是什麼以及將呈現給我們的不是那麼多的關稅，雖然這是一種影響，但坦率地說，進出口的能力產品在市場上自由流通。

That has an impact on our sales.

這對我們的銷售有影響。

Another big driver of uncertainty is the pricing that we're taking and the impact that, that has on markets.

不確定性的另一個重要驅動因素是我們正在採取的定價及其對市場的影響。

I mean, to give you a sense, if you think about markets like Turkey, Argentina, some of the more pronounced devaluations, we're talking about 30% to 50% to 70% price increases, and those are kind of unprecedented and they have a big impact -- they can have a big impact on market consumption.

我的意思是，給你一個感覺，如果你想想像土耳其、阿根廷這樣的市場，一些更明顯的貶值，我們談論的是 30% 到 50% 到 70% 的價格上漲，這是前所未有的，他們有很大的影響——它們可以對市場消費產生很大的影響。

And depending on how competitors respond, they can have a big impact on market share.

根據競爭對手的反應，它們會對市場份額產生重大影響。

So we're simply trying to be responsible in the breadth of our guidance range to reflect the range of outcomes that we see as possible.

因此，我們只是試圖在我們的指導範圍內負責，以反映我們盡可能看到的結果範圍。

And as I mentioned earlier, there's a -- we're just not at a point -- if we had every business growing slightly above the market, I think we'd be much more confident in bringing up the lower end of the range as well.

正如我之前提到的，有一個——我們只是不在一個點上——如果我們讓每項業務的增長都略高於市場，我認為我們會更有信心提高該範圍的下限，因為出色地。

I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're not there yet in either Baby or Grooming, which are 2 large businesses.

我在準備好的評論中提到，我們還沒有在 Baby 或 Grooming 這兩家大型企業中做到這一點。

So again, our change in guidance range is a positive one.

同樣，我們對指導範圍的改變是積極的。

It's built on confidence, but also informed by open-eyed objectivity in terms of the difficulty of the environment that we face.

它建立在信心的基礎上，但也從我們所面臨的環境困難方面的睜大眼睛的客觀性中得知。

In terms of pricing, kind of price/mix across developing and developed, as you'd expect, given the devaluation levels of developing market currencies, pricing level is higher there.

在定價方面，發展中國家和發達國家的價格/組合類型，如您所料，考慮到發展中國家市場貨幣的貶值水平，那裡的定價水平更高。

The combination of price/mix is, call it, 5% to 8% kind of range.

價格/組合的組合，稱之為 5% 到 8% 的範圍。

In developed markets, it's more even, with price a positive and mix a slight negative, given, for example, the relative performance of Gillette versus some of the other businesses.

在發達市場，情況更為平均，價格為正，混合則略為負，例如，考慮到吉列與其他一些企業的相對錶現。

So no different pattern than, I think, you'd expect to see.

因此，我認為與您期望看到的模式沒有什麼不同。

And your next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自 Lauren Lieberman 與 Barclays 的對話。

Jon, I was curious if you could talk a little bit about enterprise markets and the organizational, structural changes, and you shared this with The Street now a couple of weeks back.

喬恩，我很好奇你能否談談企業市場和組織、結構的變化，你在幾週前與華爾街分享了這一點。

If you could just give us a little bit of color on sort of practical steps that are underway for changing the operating structure of those businesses.

如果你能給我們一些關於改變這些企業的運營結構的實際步驟的顏色。

And also if, going forward, you'll be willing to talk about kind of growth rates you're seeing for enterprise market versus focused markets.

而且，如果展望未來，您願意談論企業市場與重點市場的增長率。

And I guess even just this current quarter, what growth looked like for the U.S.; what it looked like for developed markets in total; and developed, non-U.

而且我猜即使就在本季度，美國的增長情況如何；發達市場的總體情況如何；和發達，非U。

S.

S.

Okay.

好的。

A lot in there, Lauren, which I will try to deal effectively with.

勞倫，裡面有很多，我會努力有效地處理。

As you mentioned, you used the word weeks, which is the appropriate word to use, the time span since we first started talking about the new structure.

正如您提到的，您使用了“週”這個詞，這個詞用起來很恰當，是我們第一次開始討論新結構以來的時間跨度。

And we've been working hard since then to bring that to life.

從那時起，我們一直在努力實現這一目標。

As we indicated, we want to go into next fiscal year, July 1, with that structure fully alive.

正如我們所指出的，我們希望進入下一個財政年度，即 7 月 1 日，該結構完全活躍。

And we've spent a fair amount of time defining what the -- what role each organization is going to play.

我們花了相當多的時間來定義每個組織將扮演什麼角色。

And I want to be clear that there's -- the design intent here is to drive global categories but approach that growth opportunity in 2 different ways: One in enlarged and largely developed markets and another that we think will be more effective in the enterprise markets.

我想明確一點——這裡的設計意圖是推動全球類別，但以兩種不同的方式處理增長機會：一種是在擴大和主要發達的市場中，另一種是我們認為在企業市場中更有效的方式。

But it's not -- the enterprise markets, I expect, will -- I don't expect, I know, their strategies will be driven by the global strategies of the categories.

但它不是 - 我預計企業市場 - 我不希望，我知道，他們的戰略將由類別的全球戰略驅動。

Our supply chains will be global, managed by the global categories.

我們的供應鏈將是全球性的，由全球類別管理。

Our pricing strategies will be informed by global pricing categories.

我們的定價策略將參考全球定價類別。

And really, the enterprise market's job becomes maximizing the opportunity, given those parameters on a daily basis, making decisions real-time in the markets without having to do a lot of internal transaction processing to get decisions made.

實際上，企業市場的工作是最大化機會，每天給定這些參數，在市場上實時做出決策，而無需進行大量內部交易處理來做出決策。

And we'll be clear about that as we get closer to implementation.

隨著我們越來越接近實施，我們將清楚這一點。

But I think it really holds promise.

但我認為它確實有希望。

When you operate everything one way, by definition, you play it at the least common denominator everywhere, and we want to move off of that, and we think this is a much stronger approach.

當你以一種方式操作所有東西時，根據定義，你在任何地方都以最小公分母進行操作，我們想要擺脫這種做法，我們認為這是一種更強大的方法。

We are not going to change our segment reporting, but we will continue to give color on what's happening in important markets, whether they're enterprise markets or focused markets, just as we have today.

我們不會改變我們的分部報告，但我們將繼續為重要市場的動態提供色彩，無論是企業市場還是重點市場，就像我們今天所做的那樣。

And in terms of the growth rates for the quarter we just completed, if we look at developed markets, classically defined organic sales growth was 2%.

就我們剛剛完成的季度的增長率而言，如果我們看看發達市場，傳統定義的有機銷售增長率為 2%。

There's some variability within that.

其中有一些可變性。

I mentioned Japan at 9%, the U.S. was a little less than 2%, developing markets growing in the last quarter at 7%.

我提到日本為 9%，美國略低於 2%，發展中市場在上個季度增長了 7%。

Your next question comes from the line of the Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So Jon, I wanted to go back to the pricing but layer it with the A&P spend.

所以喬恩，我想回到定價，但將其與 A&P 支出分層。

You had about 200 basis points benefit from price/mix on the top line but about 60 basis points gross margin benefit.

您從頂線的價格/組合中獲益約 200 個基點，但毛利率收益約 60 個基點。

So is that a result of the change in accounting for promotions?

那麼這是促銷會計發生變化的結果嗎？

Or increasing support to the brands as you introduced the price increase, and that gap should narrow, going forward, to your benefit?

還是在您引入價格上漲時增加對品牌的支持，並且這種差距應該縮小，向前發展，對您有利？

And if I can squeeze in a second question on the China diapers.

如果我可以插入第二個關於中國紙尿褲的問題。

Can you update us on what happened this quarter?

您能否向我們介紹本季度發生的情況？

So from the declining volumes in the previous quarter due to pricing, did it normalize?

那麼，從上一季度由於定價導致的銷量下降來看，它是否正常化了？

And what should we expect going forward?

我們應該期待什麼？

Let me handle the second one first.

讓我先處理第二個。

We had a difficult quarter in China in the first quarter, as you alluded to, with sales down double digits.

正如您所提到的，第一季度我們在中國度過了一個艱難的季度，銷售額下降了兩位數。

But the quarter that we just completed, sales were up double digits, up about 12%.

但是我們剛剛結束的那個季度，銷售額增長了兩位數，增長了大約 12%。

We performed very well in the 2 major online events in the quarter, which were our 11/11 and 12/12, becoming the #1 diaper brand on both JD and Alibaba.

我們在 2011 年 11 月和 2012 年 12 月這一季度的兩大線上活動中表現非常出色，成為京東和阿里巴巴排名第一的紙尿褲品牌。

The premium part of our business there continues to do extremely well, about a 280 index versus year-ago.

我們在那裡的優質業務繼續表現出色，與去年同期相比約為 280 指數。

That's taped and pants.

那是膠帶和褲子。

And that's encouraging because that's the fastest-growing part of the market.

這是令人鼓舞的，因為這是市場增長最快的部分。

Our overall share grew, past 3 months, by a little over 1 point, again, most of that in the premium segment of the business, up about 3 points overall, up about 5 points online.

過去 3 個月，我們的整體份額再次增長了 1 個多點，其中大部分是在業務的高端部分，整體增長了約 3 個百分點，在線增長了約 5 個百分點。

We do continue to experience significant softness on the mainline taped business, which is down about 25% and we did lose a little bit of value share there, but that shift largely reflects market shifts in terms of preference for premium offerings.

我們確實繼續在主線錄音業務上經歷明顯的疲軟，該業務下降了約 25%，我們確實在那裡失去了一點價值份額，但這種轉變在很大程度上反映了市場對優質產品偏好的轉變。

You can look -- the obvious question, as you look at those 2 quarters is, which one is -- which one represents the future?

你可以看——當你看這兩個季度時，一個明顯的問題是，哪個是——哪個代表未來？

And we're fairly confident about back half growth in China.

我們對中國的後半部分增長相當有信心。

We've got a very strong program with Chinese New Year and strong innovation plans.

我們有一個非常強大的中國新年計劃和強大的創新計劃。

I apologize on your first question, which is why I went to your second question first, I'm not quite sure what you're asking, but I'm happy to talk to you later in the day or you can talk to [John].

對於您的第一個問題，我深表歉意，這就是為什麼我先回答您的第二個問題，我不太確定您在問什麼，但我很高興在當天晚些時候與您交談，或者您可以與 [John ].

And it's my shortcoming for not catching it all.

而我的缺點就是沒有全部抓住。

But relative to mix, the fastest-growing portion of our business was just indicated in the discussion on Baby Care and also in the discussion we had earlier on Fabric Care, has tended over the more recent periods of time, to be driven by the premium part of the portfolio.

但相對於混合，我們業務中增長最快的部分剛剛在嬰兒護理的討論中以及我們之前對織物護理的討論中指出，在最近的一段時間內傾向於由溢價驅動投資組合的一部分。

And what I think sometimes gets misunderstood is that doesn't necessarily mean the higher-margin part of the portfolio.

我認為有時會被誤解的是，這並不一定意味著投資組合中利潤率較高的部分。

So take laundry as an example.

以洗衣為例。

If you assume just for a second, and we don't assume this, but assume there's a fixed number of loads that are done across the world every year, if we can do -- if we can receive more revenue for each one of those loads and generate more profit for our shareowners on each one of those loads, I don't care a whole lot about margin.

如果你假設一下，我們不假設這個，而是假設每年全世界有固定數量的負載，如果我們能做到——如果我們能從每一個中獲得更多的收入負載並為我們的股東在這些負載中的每一個上產生更多利潤，我不太關心利潤率。

We're creating value.

我們正在創造價值。

And so what you see in some of those premium offerings is higher per-unit, per-use profit, albeit at a slightly lower margin.

因此，您在其中一些優質產品中看到的是更高的每單位、每次使用利潤，儘管利潤率略低。

And as those items grow faster than the balance of the portfolio, you see that reflected in margin mix, for instance, on the gross margin line.

隨著這些項目的增長速度快於投資組合的餘額，您會看到這反映在利潤率組合中，例如，在毛利率線上。

I'm not sure that's what you were asking, but that's one of the drivers in at least the gross margin mix currently.

我不確定你問的是什麼，但這至少是目前毛利率組合的驅動因素之一。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Strycula with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steve Strycula。

So given your recent success in a lot of market share gains, particularly in the United States and private label also gaining share, how are the retailer conversations evolving as planograms are getting reset?

因此，鑑於您最近在許多市場份額增長方面取得的成功，特別是在美國和自有品牌也獲得了份額，隨著貨架圖的重新設置，零售商的對話如何發展？

Is there a difference in the category assortment conversation?

品類分類對話有區別嗎？

Meaning that Procter continues to consolidate as #1, and #2 and #3 brands get displaced?

這意味著寶潔繼續鞏固為第一，而第二和第三品牌被取代？

How does this also shape their outlook for the ability to lean in for store-brand offerings?

這也如何塑造他們對依賴商店品牌產品的能力的看法？

As you can imagine, an aggregate level answer to that question is not terribly relevant.

可以想像，該問題的綜合水平答案並不是非常相關。

It's very different across categories and across retail partners.

跨類別和跨零售合作夥伴的情況非常不同。

I mentioned, first of all, just from a premise standpoint, that the private label growth, that's occurring largely in 3 of our 10 categories.

我首先提到，從前提的角度來看，自有品牌的增長主要發生在我們 10 個類別中的 3 個類別中。

And even the level of private label market share that exists is very different across the categories, from relatively well developed to almost nonexistent.

甚至自有品牌市場份額的水平在各個類別之間也大不相同，從相對發達到幾乎不存在。

So the conversations are different and varied.

所以談話是不同的和多樣的。

Having said that, a couple of generalities that I would draw.

話雖如此，我將得出一些概括性的結論。

I can't imagine -- well, at least in my experience, which is somewhat limited in this regard, but I can't recall a conversation with a retail partner that wasn't interested in category-growing, category-driving premium-priced items.

我無法想像——好吧，至少根據我的經驗，這在這方面有些局限，但我不記得與一位對品類增長、品類驅動溢價不感興趣的零售合作夥伴的談話——定價項目。

They're very interested in that.

他們對此很感興趣。

It's the quickest way for them to grow their market basket and their organic sales line and do it in a sustainable, constructive fashion.

這是他們以可持續、建設性的方式發展他們的市場籃子和有機銷售線的最快方式。

I think there continues to be room, just given the diversity of consumers for both types of offerings in most retail outlets.

我認為仍然有空間，只是考慮到大多數零售店中兩種類型產品的消費者多樣性。

I don't see this being an either/or type of game.

我不認為這是一種非此即彼的遊戲。

I do think the point that you made about market leaders and drivers of market growth and items on the other end of the portfolio as kind of a bipolar, if you will, growth strategy, is in play at some retail customers.

我確實認為你關於市場領導者和市場增長驅動因素以及投資組合另一端項目的觀點是一種雙極，如果你願意的話，增長戰略正在一些零售客戶中發揮作用。

And as a result, I think the least attractive place to be right now is in the middle, and that relates both to performance and price.

因此，我認為現在最沒有吸引力的地方是在中間，這與性能和價格有關。

Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

I wanted to circle back with a question on your guidance.

我想回頭問一個關於你的指導的問題。

And while you raised your top line, you did maintain your EPS growth and you called out a few headwinds that will impact your bottom line.

當你提高了你的收入時，你確實保持了你的每股收益增長並且你提出了一些會影響你的利潤的逆風。

But could you talk further about the cost of growth as you see it, and then your expectation for this going forward?

但是，您能否進一步談談您所看到的增長成本，以及您對未來發展的期望？

And then in other words, is it a fair statement that in this environment, it's simply costing you more to generate faster growth?

然後換句話說，在這種環境下，它只是讓你付出更多的代價來產生更快的增長，這是否公平？

I don't necessarily -- I understand the nature of the question and have an appreciation for it.

我不一定——我了解問題的性質並且對此表示讚賞。

I wouldn't say, though, that broadly, that's the case.

不過，我不會說大體上就是這樣。

If you look at the quarter we just completed, our growth was among the highest of recent quarters.

如果你看看我們剛剛完成的那個季度，我們的增長是最近幾個季度中最高的。

That's now true for 2 quarters.

現在兩個季度都是如此。

And if I look, for example, at our marketing spending as a percentage of sales, because of all the productivity initiatives that I described earlier, that number, while we have a stronger marketing program than we've ever had with higher reach that we're investing in as we reduce excessive frequency, reduce agency and production cost, et cetera, so very strong advertising program, it's not costing us more per, if you will, $1 of revenue gained.

例如，如果我看一下我們的營銷支出佔銷售額的百分比，因為我之前描述的所有生產力舉措，這個數字，而我們有一個比以往任何時候都更強大的營銷計劃，我們的影響範圍更大隨著我們減少過多的頻率、降低代理和生產成本等，我們正在投資如此強大的廣告計劃，如果你願意的話，每獲得 1 美元的收入，我們不會花費更多。

Also, I know there was a lot of concern, and justifiably so, a couple of quarters ago, across the industry, relative to promotion levels.

此外，我知道幾個季度前，整個行業都對晉升水平有很多擔憂，這是有道理的。

And those have generally come down, both in our case and on the case of competitors, which you would expect as you're generally in a cycle of price increases.

在我們的案例和競爭對手的案例中，這些通常都下降了，這是你所期望的，因為你通常處於價格上漲的周期中。

So the data that I have, while I'm sure I could make a use case to support your point, broadly doesn't seem to be representative of the world that we face.

所以我擁有的數據，雖然我確定我可以用一個用例來支持你的觀點，但總體上似乎並不能代表我們所面臨的世界。

Now I do think the premium that's placed on excellence of execution has increased.

現在我確實認為卓越執行力的溢價已經增加。

There's no room for anything other than excellence, which is why we continue to bang the drum internally and externally on superiority.

除了卓越，別無他法，這就是為什麼我們繼續在內部和外部鼓吹優勢。

But I don't -- if you do that well, there continues to be strong appeal, as witnessed again by the faster growth in some of the premium-priced items within the portfolio.

但我沒有——如果你做得好，就會繼續保持強大的吸引力，投資組合中一些高價商品的快速增長再次證明了這一點。

So I don't think, in aggregate, we're in a place where the cost of growth has to be higher.

所以我不認為，總的來說，我們處在一個增長成本必須更高的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Bill Chappell。

Jon, just coming back to Grooming, we're about to hit the 2-year anniversary of the price cuts in the U.S. on the systems.

喬恩，剛剛回到 Grooming，我們即將迎來美國系統降價 2 週年。

And so I'm trying to understand with where you stand now with seeing still some organic growth declines with kind of market share being relatively flat.

因此，我試圖了解你現在所處的位置，仍然看到一些有機增長下降，市場份額相對持平。

As you look back, was that a good idea?

當你回頭看時，那是個好主意嗎？

Is it something you would have repeated?

這是你會重複的嗎？

And does it say something about the category that having to do that kind of cuts, 2 years later, still keeps you just status quo, that the category really has more challenges beyond price that you're facing?

它是否說明了必須進行這種削減的類別，2 年後，仍然讓你保持現狀，這個類別真的有比你面臨的價格更多的挑戰？

I mean, if you look at the first half growth rates in Grooming, the business is essentially flat versus year ago, with much better volume share and value share trends than was the case prior to the pricing.

我的意思是，如果你看一下 Grooming 上半年的增長率，該業務與去年同期基本持平，銷量份額和價值份額趨勢比定價前要好得多。

So we've basically stabilized the share position on the business, which is important, which leads you to your second question, which is the right question.

所以我們基本上穩定了業務的份額，這很重要，這會引出你的第二個問題，這是正確的問題。

And there is a lot that's impacting the category that's outside of that pricing dynamic.

並且有很多影響定價動態之外的類別。

And the biggest impact is the societal impacts in the incidence of shaving both here and in Europe.

最大的影響是在這里和歐洲剃須的社會影響。

The good news is the market decline across manufacturers that's occurred as a result of that is waning, so the drag on a quarter-by-quarter basis is lessening.

好消息是製造商之間的市場下滑正在減弱，因此按季度計算的拖累正在減輕。

The good news is, as I mentioned, that our share positions are stabilizing and strengthening.

正如我所提到的，好消息是我們的股票地位正在穩定和加強。

And that's why, relative to an earlier question, we talked about a reasonably strong business in the back half of the year.

這就是為什麼，相對於之前的一個問題，我們在今年下半年談到了相當強勁的業務。

Big innovation coming as well with Skin Guard both here and in Europe.

在這里和歐洲，Skin Guard 也將帶來重大創新。

So I called out that business as one that requires more attention and more effort to fully turn, that remains the case.

因此，我指出該業務需要更多的關注和更多的努力才能完全轉變，情況仍然如此。

Looking back in one person's judgment, were we wrong in taking that pricing?

回顧一個人的判斷，我們的定價是否有誤？

Absolutely not.

絕對不。

And has it been effective in terms of shave -- stabilizing our share position?

它在剃須方面是否有效 - 穩定我們的份額地位？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Your next question comes from Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Joe Altobello 和 Raymond James。

Since you're talking about Grooming, I guess I'll start there.

既然你在談論美容，我想我會從那裡開始。

First, was the weakness that you saw in response to the emerging market pricing this quarter, worse than you expected or in line?

首先，您在本季度對新興市場定價的反應中看到的弱點是否比您預期的更糟或符合預期？

And secondly, what was U.S. organic growth in the quarter?

其次，本季度美國的有機增長是多少？

And I think you mentioned U.S. market growth was below 2%.

我想你提到美國市場增長率低於 2%。

So what did market share trends look like versus the 40 basis point gain you saw last quarter?

那麼，與上個季度 40 個基點的增長相比，市場份額趨勢如何？

So I'm not sure, Joe, that I can give you precise answers across all of your question on the call, but you can follow up with [John] and get the specifics.

所以我不確定，Joe，我能否在電話中對你所有的問題給出準確的答案，但你可以跟進 [John] 並了解細節。

Generally though, the trends were difficult in the U.S. with the first full quarter of the Harry's expansion, et cetera, and better in other parts of the world.

不過，總的來說，隨著 Harry's 擴張的第一個完整季度等，美國的趨勢是困難的，而在世界其他地區則更好。

And John can give you a further breakdown on that.

John 可以為您提供進一步的細分。

Next, we'll go to Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將前往 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

In past quarters, you've talked about the disproportionate market share gains that you're getting in e-commerce.

在過去的幾個季度中，您談到了您在電子商務中獲得的不成比例的市場份額增長。

And I'm wondering -- and you talked a little bit, I guess, about that in China diapers.

我想知道——我猜你在中國尿布上談過一點。

Wondering if you could give us a little bit more details on how you're doing in e-commerce in the U.S. and China by category and how that's playing out in terms of share.

想知道您是否可以向我們提供更多詳細信息，說明您在美國和中國的電子商務按類別分類的情況以及在份額方面的表現如何。

Generally doing very well in e-commerce, 30% growth last quarter, now approaching about 8% of our business.

電子商務總體上做得很好，上個季度增長了 30%，現在接近我們業務的 8% 左右。

We're finding success across eTail customers.

我們在 eTail 客戶中取得了成功。

And across categories, obviously, there's a degree of variability there.

顯然，跨類別存在一定程度的可變性。

But I think the general message and the takeaway is broadly successful.

但我認為總體信息和要點大體上是成功的。

We don't take that for granted for a nanosecond.

我們不認為納秒是理所當然的。

It's a very fast-growing part of the business that we're constantly adapting our offerings to serve, and that's everything from the way that offering is communicated to a consumer, to the size of the package, to the ability of the package to survive the journey to a consumer's home and our relevance to the individual eTail partners.

這是我們不斷調整我們的產品以服務的業務的一個非常快速增長的部分，這就是從產品與消費者溝通的方式到包裝的大小，再到包裝的生存能力的一切到消費者家中的旅程以及我們與各個 eTail 合作夥伴的相關性。

But broadly, very successful.

但從廣義上講，非常成功。

Next, we'll go to Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge.

接下來，我們將訪問 Consumer Edge 的 Jonathan Feeney。

Two questions real quick.

兩個問題真的很快。

First, taking up on a comment you made in your very opening statements.

首先，接受您在開場白中發表的評論。

You mentioned that the highest-margin competitors you have, I think Reckitt and Colgate, you called out, you kind of cited their exposure to health care as the reason for their segments, so that higher margin.

你提到你擁有的利潤率最高的競爭對手，我認為 Reckitt 和 Colgate，你大聲疾呼，你引用了他們接觸醫療保健作為他們細分市場的原因，所以利潤率更高。

Is that true of your own segments?

您自己的細分市場也是如此嗎？

And does that tell us something about maybe the direction?

這是否告訴我們一些關於方向的信息？

What kind of dynamics are present -- that maybe are present in your health care portfolio or elsewhere that [maybe your instructor] for your direction?

存在什麼樣的動態 - 可能存在於您的醫療保健組合或其他[可能是您的導師]指導您的地方？

And second question is oil's down 35% in the quarter -- end of your last fiscal quarter, end of this fiscal quarter that you just reported.

第二個問題是石油在本季度下跌了 35%——在你的上一個財政季度末，在你剛剛報告的本財政季度末。

Historically, that's been a reasonable indicator of prospective cost.

從歷史上看，這是預期成本的合理指標。

Can you give me a couple of big [clouds] for why that might not be the case this time?

你能給我幾個大[雲]為什麼這次可能不是這種情況？

Consumer health care margins, to your first question, are generally very attractive.

對於你的第一個問題，消費者醫療保健的利潤率通常非常有吸引力。

We find that to be an attractive business.

我們發現這是一項有吸引力的業務。

It's both a business that has historically grown at very attractive rates, and it's done so at very high margins -- relatively high margins.

這既是一項歷史上以極具吸引力的速度增長的業務，也是以非常高的利潤率——相對較高的利潤率實現的。

And that does explain part of our interest in that category and does explain some of the actions we've taken to increase our presence in that category.

這確實解釋了我們對該類別的部分興趣，也確實解釋了我們為增加我們在該類別中的存在而採取的一些行動。

And I've been talking for a long time.

我已經談了很長時間了。

When asked about where we're interested in adding to our portfolio, I've typically mentioned OTC Health Care and Skin & Personal Care as areas that but -- we have both the freedom from a category concentration standpoint and generally the financial attractiveness to at least responsibly explore opportunities that add to our portfolio in those categories.

當被問及我們有興趣在哪些方面增加我們的產品組合時，我通常提到 OTC 醫療保健和皮膚與個人護理領域，但是——我們既有從類別集中的角度來看的自由，也有總體上的財務吸引力最不負責任地探索增加我們在這些類別中的投資組合的機會。

And I would not expect that to -- that should continue.

而且我不希望 - 這應該繼續下去。

In terms of the -- your question on oil price, 2 points to make there.

就您關於油價的問題而言，有 2 點。

One is -- and I know this wasn't your question, but just for clarity, given the opportunity, about 1% of our commodity exposure is kind of directly oil.

一個是——我知道這不是你的問題，但為了清楚起見，如果有機會，我們大約 1% 的商品敞口是直接石油。

About 5% of our commodity exposure is highly correlated to oil in relatively short periods of time.

在相對較短的時間內，我們約有 5% 的商品敞口與石油高度相關。

There's another big chunk of our commodity exposure that is to the petrol complex, but that is not highly correlated in short periods of time to the price movements of oil.

我們的商品風險敞口中還有很大一部分是石油綜合體，但在短期內與石油價格走勢的相關性並不高。

It's more driven by demand and supply dynamics within those individual supply chains.

它更多地是由那些單獨的供應鏈中的需求和供應動態驅動的。

Typically, the bleed-through effects, if you will, takes 6 to 9 months, which is why, in this update, you don't see us making big changes because within the forecast period we're talking about, which is the next 5 months, so we're not expecting big changes.

通常，如果你願意的話，滲透效應需要 6 到 9 個月，這就是為什麼在這次更新中你看不到我們做出重大改變的原因，因為在我們談論的預測期內，也就是下一個5 個月，所以我們預計不會有大的變化。

But clearly, to the extent that those prices stay low, we would expect some bleed-through to our commodity cost over time.

但很明顯，如果這些價格保持低位，我們預計隨著時間的推移我們的商品成本會有所下降。

Obviously, things like pulp are unaffected by that, as are some of the other materials.

顯然，像紙漿這樣的東西不受此影響，其他一些材料也是如此。

I know this wasn't part of your question either, but for completeness, lower oil, though, is not necessarily a net positive from a holistic earnings per share standpoint.

我知道這也不是你問題的一部分，但為了完整起見，從整體每股收益的角度來看，低油價並不一定是淨利好。

It will have some impact on commodity cost, as we've just discussed, but it also has impacts on consumer confidence and on personal budgets in producing countries, and it can have a significant impact on the ability to purchase products in our categories in those countries.

正如我們剛剛討論的那樣，它將對商品成本產生一些影響，但它也會對生產國的消費者信心和個人預算產生影響，並且可能對那些國家/地區購買我們類別產品的能力產生重大影響國家。

So you need to be careful as you look at oil, both relative to its direct cause and effect on our commodity structure but also the impacts it has on the demand environment.

因此，您在看待石油時需要小心，既要考慮它對我們的商品結構的直接原因和影響，還要考慮它對需求環境的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 與 Stifel 的合作。

Wanted to ask, just first broadly, any change in how you think about category growth on a global basis?

想先廣泛地問一下，您對全球品類增長的看法有何變化？

And then depending on, I guess, the answer to that, are you seeing any increasing distance between your growth, or maybe even broadly, kind of the haves and have-nots across various categories and in geographies?

然後取決於，我想，這個問題的答案，你是否看到你的增長之間的距離越來越大，或者甚至更廣泛地說，各種類別和地區的富人和窮人之間的差距？

And in particular, if you go back a couple of years ago, local and regional competitors, I think, have generally done a better job than they did maybe 10 years ago.

特別是，如果你回到幾年前，我認為本地和區域競爭對手通常比 10 年前做得更好。

Is that gap narrowing between the multinationals and local and regional?

跨國公司與地方和地區之間的差距正在縮小嗎？

If not, is it some of the bigger multinationals are kind of stepping up their game and pressuring some of the others?

如果不是，是不是一些較大的跨國公司正在加強他們的遊戲並向其他一些公司施壓？

And I say that more on a developing market basis, just given that you've had much stronger growth in that business than in developed markets.

而且我說的更多是在發展中市場的基礎上，只是因為你在該業務中的增長比在發達市場中要強勁得多。

But feel free to answer kind of how you see it across whatever geographies make sense.

但是請隨意回答您在任何有意義的地區如何看待它。

Category growth is improving slightly, which is very encouraging, and we see that fairly broadly.

類別增長略有改善，這是非常令人鼓舞的，我們看到這一點相當廣泛。

We see that in the U.S. We see that in developing markets.

我們在美國看到了這一點。我們在發展中市場也看到了這一點。

So that has been a positive dynamic and is a recent dynamic.

所以這是一個積極的動態，也是最近的動態。

Don't get me wrong.

不要誤會我的意思。

We're not talking about categories moving from a 2.5% growth to 5% growth.

我們不是在談論從 2.5% 增長到 5% 增長的類別。

We're talking about categories moving from 2.5% to 3% growth on a global basis.

我們談論的是類別在全球範圍內從 2.5% 增長到 3%。

But all good.

但一切都很好。

All good.

都好。

In terms of the near-term competitive environment, the local and regional brands are continuing to perform extremely well from both growth rates -- primarily from a growth rate standpoint, but also if we look at who's gaining share.

就近期競爭環境而言，本地和區域品牌在兩種增長率方面都繼續表現出色——主要是從增長率的角度來看，但如果我們看看誰在增加份額的話。

In many cases, they are the share gainers.

在許多情況下，他們是股票的贏家。

Where we've lost business and lost share, it has typically been -- and obviously, this is a highly general aggregate statement, but has more frequently been to those local and regional competitors than to our global multinational competitors, though there are clear exceptions to that.

在我們失去業務和份額的地方，它通常是 - 顯然，這是一個高度籠統的匯總聲明，但比我們的全球跨國競爭對手更頻繁地發生在那些本地和區域競爭對手身上，儘管有明顯的例外到那個。

So the gap continues to narrow.

因此，差距繼續縮小。

That is -- that explains a couple of things in terms of our own strategy.

那就是——這就我們自己的戰略解釋了幾件事。

One, again, is to redouble our efforts on meaningful, obvious superiority, and that's not just versus branded manufacturers, that's versus private label manufacturers.

一，再一次，是加倍努力在有意義的、明顯的優勢上，這不僅僅是與品牌製造商的對比，也是與自有品牌製造商的對比。

That's not just against global competitors, that's against local competitors.

這不僅是針對全球競爭對手，也是針對本地競爭對手。

And that is extremely important that we maintain a positive position there.

我們在那裡保持積極的立場是極其重要的。

The other is we've made a real effort to distribute resources more in-market as opposed to at regional or global headquarters.

另一個是我們已經做出真正的努力，更多地在市場內分配資源，而不是在區域或全球總部。

China is a very good example where we've been very intentional in doing exactly that for exactly the reasons you cite: Being as close to those consumers as we possibly can, being as close to the evolving competitive environment as we possibly can, and has made a real difference.

中國是一個很好的例子，我們一直非常有意識地這樣做，正是出於您引用的原因：盡可能接近這些消費者，盡可能接近不斷變化的競爭環境，並且已經帶來了真正的改變。

So again we, as you know, in the quarter we just completed, are in a share growth position, but we don't take any of that for granted and are considering the entire competitive set as we calibrate the sufficiency of our efforts.

因此，正如您所知，在我們剛剛完成的那個季度，我們再次處於份額增長的位置，但我們並不認為這是理所當然的，並且在我們校准我們努力的充分性時正在考慮整個競爭環境。

And your final question comes from the line of Jon Andersen with William Blair.

你的最後一個問題來自 Jon Andersen 和 William Blair 的台詞。

And this is a bit of a follow-on to the last question.

這是最後一個問題的後續問題。

Jon, can you give us kind of a broad-based update on the global supply chain work that you're doing?

喬恩，你能給我們介紹一下你正在做的全球供應鏈工作的廣泛更新嗎？

And the reason I'm asking is I'm wondering whether you're considering this work more kind of table stakes in terms of serving retailers and channels and end consumers or whether you're working toward an infrastructure, you think, can be -- that can be truly differentiated and kind of a source of competitive advantage maybe through better unit costs, speed to market, service levels, et cetera.

我問的原因是我想知道你是否正在考慮這項工作更多地為零售商和渠道以及最終消費者提供服務，或者你是否正在致力於基礎設施，你認為，可以 - - 可以通過更好的單位成本、上市速度、服務水平等實現真正的差異化和某種競爭優勢的來源。

A good question, Jon, and I would say the intent is both.

一個很好的問題，喬恩，我會說意圖是兩者兼而有之。

Retailers are demanding more in terms of service levels on the part of manufacturers, and we need to restructure and retool ourselves to be superior in delivering against their needs.

零售商對製造商的服務水平要求更高，我們需要重組和重組自己，以便更好地滿足他們的需求。

I do believe that in addition to that -- to those table stakes moves, as you described them, that we need to make, that there are real sources of competitive advantage and we're creating through our supply chain transformation.

我確實相信，除此之外——正如你所描述的，我們需要做出的那些賭注轉移，還有真正的競爭優勢來源，我們正在通過供應鏈轉型創造。

A simple aggregation of multiple categories within a site has a huge impact on unit cost, 50% of the cost of manufacturing facilities, the infrastructure of that facility, the roads, the rail spurs, the utilities, et cetera.

一個站點內多個類別的簡單聚合會對單位成本、製造設施成本的 50%、該設施的基礎設施、道路、鐵路支線、公用事業等產生巨大影響。

Even more importantly, the service we can provide as a multi-category supplier with full trucks at -- and quantities for each category that work for individual retail partners at very effective costs, because we can combine both products that cube out of truck and products that weight out of truck, and can deliver those products on a daily basis to our retail partners, is a real competitive advantage.

更重要的是，我們可以作為一個多類別供應商提供的服務，包括整車運輸以及每個類別的數量，以非常有效的成本為各個零售合作夥伴服務，因為我們可以將卡車和產品的立方體結合起來卡車重量輕，並且可以每天將這些產品運送給我們的零售合作夥伴，這是一個真正的競爭優勢。

I think the ability to, if you will, white-paper our processes and manufacturing platforms, I talked about robotics and the digitization that's occurring in our factories.

我認為，如果你願意，白皮書我們的流程和製造平台的能力，我談到了機器人技術和我們工廠中發生的數字化。

We can -- we will make step-function improvements, exponential improvements versus where we were and I think where most of our competitors, not all, but where many of our competitors are.

我們可以 - 我們將進行階躍函數改進，與我們之前的情況相比呈指數級改進，我認為我們的大多數競爭對手，不是全部，但我們的許多競爭對手所在的地方。

So thanks for raising the question.

謝謝你提出這個問題。

I think it will serve both.

我認為它會為兩者服務。

We're still midstream in our efforts here.

我們在這裡的努力仍在中途。

So there's more work to do and there are more savings to come.

所以有更多的工作要做，也有更多的節省。

I want to thank everybody for your time this morning.

我要感謝大家今天早上的時間。

Again, we're very excited about the first half of our fiscal year and the progress we've made, but are not declaring victory.

同樣，我們對本財年的上半年和我們取得的進展感到非常興奮，但並沒有宣布勝利。

Have more work to do to further improve results and are committed to do that.

有更多的工作要做，以進一步改善結果，並致力於做到這一點。

Please take the increase in the top line guidance as indicative of confidence, not fear, but wanting to be very realistic with you about the environment that we see and we operate in.

請將頂線指導的增加視為信心的表現，而不是恐懼，而是希望對您所看到的和我們所處的環境非常現實。

And hopefully, we'll continue to make progress.

希望我們能繼續取得進展。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。