寶潔 (PG) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter End Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎來到寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。

P&G would like to remind you that today's discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

寶潔想提醒您，今天的討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您會看到對可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測存在重大差異的因素的討論。

Additionally, the company has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP and other financial measures.

此外，該公司還在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 和其他財務指標的全面對賬。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Moeller.

現在，我將把電話轉給寶潔公司的副董事長兼首席財務官喬恩·莫勒 (Jon Moeller)。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

joining me this morning. I'm going to provide an update on company results. David will update us on key strategy and focus areas. We'll close with guidance and then turn to your questions.

今天早上加入我。我將提供公司業績的最新情況。大衛將向我們介紹關鍵戰略和重點領域。我們將以指導結束，然後轉向您的問題。

We continue to make important progress, strong volume and consumption growth, earnings per share at or above target, cash above target, market shares improving, progress, though room for improvement on all metrics, most notably the top line.

我們繼續取得重要進展，銷量和消費增長強勁，每股收益達到或高於目標，現金高於目標，市場份額有所改善，儘管所有指標都有改善的空間，最顯著的是收入。

Organic volume grew 2% for the year, 3% in Q4. Organic sales growth fell just shy, rounding up to 2%. 8 of 10 global categories grew organic sales. In aggregate, these categories grew at over a 3% pace.

全年有機銷量增長 2%，第四季度增長 3%。有機銷售增長略有下降，四捨五入為 2%。全球 10 個類別中有 8 個實現了有機銷售額增長。總體而言，這些類別的增長率超過 3%。

Online sales grew 30% for the year to nearly $4.5 billion in sales, approaching 7% of our total business, roughly the size of the next 2 largest consumer e-commerce businesses combined. We added nearly $1.2 billion of e-commerce sales in fiscal '18 after adding about $1 billion in sales in fiscal '17.

在線銷售額全年增長 30%，達到近 45 億美元，接近我們總業務的 7%，大致相當於下兩個最大的消費電子商務業務的總和。在 17 財年增加約 10 億美元的銷售額後，我們在 18 財年增加了近 12 億美元的電子商務銷售額。

All channel consumption grew at a faster rate than sales between 2% and 3%. As a result, our share positions improved. Fiscal '18 market share trends improved in 8 of the 15 largest countries versus the prior year with fourth quarter trends better than fiscal year average in 10 of 15. Market share trends advanced in 7 of 10 global product categories with improvement as the year progressed. We held our [built] e-commerce value share in 8 of 10 product categories.

所有渠道消費的增長速度都快於銷售額，在 2% 到 3% 之間。因此，我們的股票地位得到改善。與上一年相比，15 個最大國家中有 8 個國家的 18 財年市場份額趨勢有所改善，其中 15 個國家/地區中有 10 個國家的第四季度趨勢好於財年平均水平。隨著時間的推移，全球 10 個產品類別中有 7 個的市場份額趨勢有所改善。我們在 10 個產品類別中的 8 個類別中持有我們的 [內置] 電子商務價值份額。

We made good progress in our 2 largest markets, U.S. all outlet value share improved from a 30 basis point decline in fiscal '17 to flat for fiscal '18 to 30 basis point share growth in April, June. 7 of 10 product categories grew all outlet value share in Q4. 7 of 10 categories improved their share trends on a past 6-month versus 12-month basis and on a past 3-month versus 6-month basis. All outlet union -- unit consumption grew 2.5% for the full year in the U.S. and was up more than 3% in the fourth quarter.

我們在我們的兩個最大市場取得了良好進展，美國所有出口價值份額從 17 財年的 30 個基點下降到 18 財年持平，4 月和 6 月增長了 30 個基點。 10 個產品類別中有 7 個在第四季度實現了所有門店價值份額的增長。 10 個類別中有 7 個在過去 6 個月和 12 個月以及過去 3 個月和 6 個月的基礎上改善了他們的份額趨勢。美國所有奧特萊斯聯盟——單位消費全年增長 2.5%，第四季度增長超過 3%。

We continued the strong turnaround in China, improving from a 5% sales decline in fiscal '16 to 1% growth in '17 to 7% organic sales growth last year. Sales growth accelerated as the year progressed, growing 6% in the first half and 8% in the second half, including 10% organic sales growth in Q4. 6 of 7 categories are holding or growing sales up from 1 of 7 categories 2 years ago. We generated about $1.6 billion in e-commerce sales, nearly 30% of the China business.

我們繼續在中國實現強勁轉變，從 16 財年的 5% 銷售額下降改善到 17 財年的 1% 增長，再到去年 7% 的有機銷售額增長。隨著時間的推移，銷售增長加快，上半年增長 6%，下半年增長 8%，其中第四季度有機銷售增長 10%。 7 個類別中有 6 個保持或增長銷售額，高於 2 年前的 7 個類別中的 1 個。我們的電子商務銷售額約為 16 億美元，佔中國業務的近 30%。

Our global top line was challenged by several unexpected disruptions; in Brazil, the worst transportation strike in more than 20 years, virtually shutting down shipments for 2 weeks; Saudi Arabia and the Gulf markets contracted significantly due to sharp increases in utility and gas prices, higher taxes and an exodus of foreign workers; renewed trade restrictions with Iran; Algerian bans on imported products; severe consumption contraction in Egypt and Nigeria due to high inflation and decrease in affordability following more than 100% currency devaluation.

我們的全球收入受到了幾次意外中斷的挑戰；在巴西，發生了 20 多年來最嚴重的運輸罷工，幾乎使運輸中斷了 2 週；由於公用事業和天然氣價格急劇上漲、稅收增加以及外國工人外流，沙特阿拉伯和海灣市場大幅收縮；更新與伊朗的貿易限制；阿爾及利亞禁止進口產品；埃及和尼日利亞由於高通脹和貨幣貶值超過 100% 導致支付能力下降，導致消費嚴重收縮。

Organic sales in these markets declined 13% off a $2.2 billion base, a 40 basis point drag on a company-wide organic sales growth. Global retail inventory reductions took an additional 30 to 40 basis points out of sales, as customers manage cash and purchases shifted to e-commerce.

這些市場的有機銷售額從 22 億美元的基數下降了 13%，拖累了全公司的有機銷售額增長 40 個基點。隨著客戶管理現金和採購轉向電子商務，全球零售庫存減少使銷售額額外減少 30 至 40 個基點。

As you know, we've been pointing the challenges in 2 categories: Grooming and Baby Care. While there's still more work to do, we've made significant progress on both. Global Shave Care share was in line with prior year, with Braun share up 0.5 point. We improved U.S. male blades and razors value share from a 4-point decline in fiscal '17 to nearly flat for fiscal '18 to over a 1-point increase on the fourth quarter. We launched Gillette3 and Gillette5 razors in the U.S. last quarter to strengthen our position at opening price points for male shaving systems. We've revamped and strengthened our online program to let on demand, increasing the rate of new user recruitment and retention. We're currently growing volume share and value share on a past 3- and 6-month basis. U.S. male Shave Care delivered 3% volume growth last fiscal year, with male shaving systems up 5%.

如您所知，我們一直將挑戰分為兩類：美容和嬰兒護理。雖然還有更多工作要做，但我們在這兩方面都取得了重大進展。全球剃須護理份額與上一年持平，博朗份額上升 0.5 個百分點。我們改善了美國男性刀片和剃須刀的價值份額，從 17 財年的 4 個百分點下降到 18 財年的幾乎持平，再到第四季度增長超過 1 個百分點。上個季度，我們在美國推出了 Gillette3 和 Gillette5 剃須刀，以鞏固我們在男性剃須系統開盤價位的地位。我們已經改進並加強了我們的在線計劃以允許按需使用，從而提高了新用戶的招募和保留率。我們目前在過去 3 個月和 6 個月的基礎上增加了數量份額和價值份額。上一財年美國男性剃須護理銷量增長 3%，其中男性剃須系統增長 5%。

Venus all outlet shell -- share of female blades and razors in the U.S. grew 0.5 point last year and 1.5 points on the fourth quarter. We face new challenges on Gillette as a valued share competitor is expanding in-store distribution in the U.S. and as competitors are expanding their direct consumer propositions in Europe. We're funding strong plans to protect the business, but competitive actions are likely to have at least some impact.

Venus all outlet shell——女性刀片和剃須刀在美國的份額去年增長了 0.5 個百分點，第四季度增長了 1.5 個百分點。我們在吉列面臨新的挑戰，因為重要的份額競爭對手正在美國擴大店內分銷，而競爭對手正在歐洲擴大其直接消費者主張。我們正在資助強有力的計劃來保護業務，但競爭行動可能至少會產生一些影響。

Baby Care had a challenging year, but we significantly strengthened our long-term position. China sales and share trends improved sequentially through the year. In the fourth quarter, the business grew organic sales mid-single digits and share progress accelerated, returning Pampers to overall share leadership in Mainland China. Pampers more than doubled its share of premium-tier diapers last year, extended its share lead on pants and took value share leadership in e-commerce.

嬰兒護理業務經歷了充滿挑戰的一年，但我們顯著加強了我們的長期地位。中國的銷售額和份額趨勢在這一年中環比改善。第四季度，該業務實現了中等個位數的有機銷售額增長，市場份額增長加快，幫助幫寶適重新回到了中國大陸整體市場份額的領先地位。去年，幫寶適在高端紙尿褲市場的份額增加了一倍多，擴大了其在褲子市場的份額領先地位，並在電子商務領域佔據了價值份額領先地位。

Baby Care sales in India, an important growth market for the future, grew 34%.

印度是未來重要的增長市場，其嬰兒護理產品銷售額增長了 34%。

U.S. Baby Care was challenged by aggressive private label pricing that primarily impacted the Luvs brand, retail inventory adjustments, smaller retail funded promotions and a comparison against the base period that included the successful relaunch of Pampers Easy Ups Training Pants. We strengthened our consumer value proposition on Luvs with value share starting to stabilize. We introduced Pampers Pure Protection diapers and Aqua Pure wipes in April. In just a few weeks, we achieved share leadership in the natural segment and track channels. Consumer reviews of Pampers Pure have been very strong, and we expect momentum to grow as we drive awareness and trial.

美國嬰兒護理受到主要影響 Luvs 品牌的激進自有品牌定價、零售庫存調整、較小的零售資助促銷活動以及與包括幫寶適 Easy Ups 訓練褲的成功重新推出在內的基期比較的挑戰。我們加強了 Luvs 的消費者價值主張，價值份額開始趨於穩定。我們在 4 月份推出了 Pampers Pure Protection 紙尿褲和 Aqua Pure 濕巾。在短短幾週內，我們在自然細分市場和跟踪渠道中取得了份額領先地位。消費者對 Pampers Pure 的評論一直非常強烈，我們預計隨著我們提高認識和試用，勢頭會增長。

We continue to build on the success of our diaper pant products. Pampers is the global share leader in pant-style diapers, with nearly a 30% share of a form growing at a double-digit rate, positioning us well as the market continues to shift towards pants.

我們繼續在尿布褲產品的成功基礎上再接再厲。幫寶適是褲型紙尿褲的全球份額領導者，近 30% 的市場份額以兩位數的速度增長，在市場繼續轉向褲型的過程中為我們定位。

New premium-tier innovation and new pack sizes are launching this quarter that included price increase on most items, equivalent to a 4% increase across the North America Pampers diaper business.

本季度將推出新的高端創新和新包裝尺寸，其中包括大多數商品的價格上漲，相當於整個北美幫寶適紙尿褲業務上漲 4%。

Challenges remain on both Grooming and Baby Care, and competition is strong, but we're much better positioned as we enter fiscal 2019 than we were heading into 2018.

美容和嬰兒護理方面的挑戰依然存在，競爭也很激烈，但我們在進入 2019 財年時比進入 2018 財年時處於更好的位置。

Moving to the bottom line. Our going-in fiscal year guidance called for core earnings per share growth of 5% to 7%. Despite significant cost challenges, nearly double what we expected at the start of the year, increased transportation cost and increased investments in consumer and customer value, core earnings per share was $4.22 for the fiscal year, up 8%, above the high end of the going-in guidance range and at the high end of our midyear revised range. Commodities and transportation costs were a $500 million after-tax headwind, a 5-point drag on core earnings per share growth. Foreign exchange was a modest earnings help for the year. Tax reform was around a $150 million benefit.

移至底線。我們即將到來的財年指引要求核心每股收益增長 5% 至 7%。儘管面臨巨大的成本挑戰，幾乎是我們年初預期的兩倍，運輸成本增加以及對消費者和客戶價值的投資增加，本財年每股核心收益為 4.22 美元，增長 8%，高於上年同期的上限進入指導範圍和我們年中修訂範圍的高端。大宗商品和運輸成本是 5 億美元的稅後逆風，拖累核心每股收益增長 5 個百分點。外匯對這一年的收入有一定的幫助。稅收改革帶來了大約 1.5 億美元的收益。

Core operating margin contracted 50 basis points, as pricing lagged commodity cost increases. We've grown core operating margin 270 basis points over the preceding 4 fiscal years, 610 points, excluding foreign exchange and expect to resume margin growth as pricing is implemented to offset commodity costs and as more productivity savings come online. Productivity improvements generated 260 basis points of savings for the year that we just completed.

核心營業利潤率收縮 50 個基點，原因是定價滯後於商品成本的上漲。在過去的 4 個財政年度中，我們的核心營業利潤率增長了 270 個基點，610 個基點，不包括外匯，並且隨著實施定價以抵消商品成本以及更多的生產力節約上線，預計利潤率將恢復增長。生產力的提高為我們剛剛結束的一年節省了 260 個基點。

Our current 21.6% core operating profit margin is among the highest in the industry, and we continue to hold advantages in below-the-line costs. We borrow at some of the most favorable rates in the industry. We have a tax rate that is among the industry's lowest. All of this leads us with a core after-tax profit margin of nearly 17%, one of the highest after-tax margins in the industry, with 3 years of the current productivity program still ahead of us.

我們目前 21.6% 的核心營業利潤率在行業中名列前茅，我們在線下成本方面繼續保持優勢。我們以業內最優惠的利率借款。我們的稅率是業內最低的。所有這一切使我們的核心稅後利潤率接近 17%，是業內稅後利潤率最高的公司之一，目前的生產力計劃還有 3 年的時間要完成。

Cash flow remains dependably strong with adjusted free cash flow productivity of 104%, well above our going-in target of 90%. We raised the dividend 4%, growing it for the 62nd consecutive year. We paid out more than $7 billion in dividends and repurchased $7 billion of stock, returning more than $14 billion in value to shareowners. Over the last 10 years, we returned more than $120 billion in dividends and share repurchase, greater than 100% of adjusted net earnings. Our current dividend yield of 3.6% is nearly a full point higher than the Consumer Staples SPDR Fund average.

現金流仍然強勁，調整後的自由現金流生產率為 104%，遠高於我們 90% 的目標。我們將股息提高了 4%，這是連續第 62 年增加。我們支付了超過 70 億美元的股息並回購了 70 億美元的股票，向股東返還了超過 140 億美元的價值。在過去 10 年中，我們返還了超過 1200 億美元的股息和股票回購，超過調整後淨收益的 100%。我們目前 3.6% 的股息收益率比消費必需品 SPDR 基金的平均水平高出近一個百分點。

Detailed fourth quarter results are provided on our press release, so I'll just hit a few of the highlights. Organic volume up 3%. Organic sales were up over 2% -- 1%, excuse me. Core earnings per share were $0.94, up 11% for the quarter. All-in earnings per share was $0.72, including $0.14 per share of noncore restructuring charges and $0.09 per share of early debt retirement costs. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 158%.

我們的新聞稿中提供了詳細的第四季度業績，因此我只介紹其中的一些要點。有機量增長 3%。不好意思，有機銷售額增長了 2% - 1%。本季度核心每股收益為 0.94 美元，增長 11%。每股總收益為 0.72 美元，包括每股 0.14 美元的非核心重組費用和每股 0.09 美元的提前債務清償成本。調整後的自由現金流生產率為 158%。

In summary, core earnings per share growth above the going-in guidance range and at the high end of the revised range, despite significant commodity and transportation cost increases. Cash ahead of target. Strong consumption with improving share trends. Sales growing, but modestly below our target range. Progress in many areas, but, again, importantly, room to improve on all metrics, particularly organic sales growth.

總而言之，儘管大宗商品和運輸成本顯著增加，但核心每股收益的增長高於預期指導範圍和修訂範圍的高端。提前實現目標現金。消費強勁，份額趨勢改善。銷售額增長，但略低於我們的目標範圍。許多領域都取得了進展，但同樣重要的是，所有指標都有改進的空間，尤其是有機銷售增長。

David?

大衛？

I'd like to add some perspective on our results, especially the top line sales and share growth. The sales growth was softer than we want, but share is showing why I am confident that interventions are working and moving us forward in a sustainable way. We have more brands, categories in countries growing than we did last year or the year before. The trends over time are very clear.

我想對我們的結果提出一些看法，尤其是頂線銷售額和份額增長。銷售增長比我們想要的要疲軟，但份額表明了為什麼我相信干預措施正在發揮作用並以可持續的方式推動我們前進。我們在增長的國家/地區擁有比去年或前年更多的品牌和類別。隨著時間的推移，趨勢非常明顯。

Importantly, the improvements are driven by the strategic interventions and plans, starting with interventions to improve the superiority of our products, packages, communications, go to market and value, both consumer and customer.

重要的是，這些改進是由戰略干預和計劃驅動的，從改善我們產品、包裝、通信、上市和價值的干預開始，包括消費者和客戶。

I'd like to provide some highlights on the progress on brands and markets, and then go into more detail on the actions and impact of our choices. First, some quick highlights. As Jon said, 8 of 10 product categories and 18 of our top 25 brands held or grew organic sales in fiscal '18. SK-II grew more than 30%. Downy grew sales double digits, driving mid-single-digit growth on the fabric enhancer category, and over 1 point of value share growth over the past 3, 6 and 12 months.

我想提供一些關於品牌和市場進展的重點，然後更詳細地介紹我們選擇的行動和影響。首先，一些快速亮點。正如喬恩所說，在 18 財年，10 個產品類別中的 8 個和我們前 25 個品牌中的 18 個保持或增長了有機銷售額。 SK-II 增長超過 30%。在過去 3、6 和 12 個月中，Downy 的銷售額實現兩位數增長，推動織物增強劑類別實現中個位數增長，價值份額增長超過 1 個百分點。

Eight brands grew organic sales mid to high-single digits, including Ariel, Always, Olay, Oral-B, Old Spice, Braun, Febreze and Swiffer.

八個品牌的有機銷售額增長了中高個位數，包括 Ariel、Always、Olay、Oral-B、Old Spice、Braun、Febreze 和 Swiffer。

12 of our top 15 countries held or grew organic sales in fiscal '18 with 6 of those growing mid-single digits or faster. Turkey and India each delivered strong double-digit growth, with all categories in each country growing sales. Japan grew mid-single digits with value share up over 0.5 point for the year and up more than 1 point the past 6 and 3 months. Mexico grew organic sales in mid-single digits. 26 of our largest category country combinations held or grew market share, up from 21 of 50 last year.

我們前 15 個國家中有 12 個國家在 18 財年保持或增長了有機銷售額，其中 6 個國家的銷售額增長中位數或更快。土耳其和印度均實現了兩位數的強勁增長，每個國家/地區的所有品類均實現銷售額增長。日本實現中等個位數增長，價值份額全年增長超過 0.5 個百分點，過去 6 個月和 3 個月增長超過 1 個百分點。墨西哥有機銷售額以中等個位數增長。我們最大類別的國家/地區組合中有 26 個保持或增長了市場份額，高於去年的 50 個中的 21 個。

As Jon had said, we have more work to do to accelerate results. We clearly are operating in a very dynamic environment, changing government policies, including tax, trade and privacy, retail transformation, disruption of the media ecosystem, rising input and transportation costs and foreign exchange headwinds, with highly capable multinational and local competitors determined to win. We are accelerating changes to meet these challenges and further improve results. This will enable us to spot and capitalize on opportunities and identify and fix issues faster than we ever had in the past. We will be the disruptors in our industry. We're investing to improve superiority, our margin of advantage. We're making P&G ever more productive. We are structuring an organization and building a culture that continues to put us in front of change, riding the wave of this dynamic environment versus being hit by it. We're leading disruption in cost of value chain, innovation, supply systems, consumer communication, retail execution, customer and consumer value to consistently and sustainably grow sales, margins and cash.

正如喬恩所說，我們還有更多工作要做，以加快取得成果。我們顯然在一個非常動態的環境中運營，不斷變化的政府政策，包括稅收、貿易和隱私、零售轉型、媒體生態系統的破壞、投入和運輸成本的上升以及外匯逆風，有能力的跨國和本地競爭對手決心取勝.我們正在加速變革以應對這些挑戰並進一步改善結果。這將使我們能夠比過去更快地發現和利用機會並發現和解決問題。我們將成為行業的顛覆者。我們正在投資以提高優勢，即我們的優勢邊際。我們正在使 P&G 變得更加高效。我們正在構建一個組織並建立一種文化，這種文化將繼續讓我們走在變革的前面，駕馭這種動態環境的浪潮而不是被它衝擊。我們正在引領價值鏈成本、創新、供應系統、消費者溝通、零售執行、客戶和消費者價值的顛覆，以持續和可持續地增加銷售額、利潤和現金。

And next, I'd like to offer a few points on superiority, which is really our basis to win. We've made a deliberate choice to invest in the superiority of our products in packages, retail execution, marketing and value and not just in the premium tier, but in each price tier where we compete. We need to strengthen the long-term health and competitiveness of our brands. To do this, we've raised our standards for each of these superiority drivers.

接下來，我想提供幾點優勢，這確實是我們取勝的基礎。我們經過深思熟慮地選擇投資於我們產品在包裝、零售執行、營銷和價值方面的優勢，而不僅僅是在高端，而是在我們競爭的每個價格層級。我們需要加強我們品牌的長期健康和競爭力。為此，我們提高了每個優勢驅動因素的標準。

In brand country combinations, where we judge ourself to be noticeably superior in at least 4 of the 5 elements, we deliver meaningful improvement in key business success measures, including household penetration, which is the number of people that buy our brands each year; market growth critical to us and our retailers; value share growth; sales growth; and profit, all 80% of the time. When we are superior in just 3 or few other superiority elements, we grow all of the business success measures 0% of the time.

在品牌國家/地區組合中，我們判斷自己在 5 個要素中的至少 4 個方面明顯優於其他國家/地區，我們在關鍵業務成功指標方面取得了顯著改善，包括家庭滲透率，即每年購買我們品牌的人數；對我們和我們的零售商至關重要的市場增長；價值份額增長；銷售增長;和利潤，所有 80% 的時間。當我們僅在 3 個或少數幾個其他優勢元素上表現出色時，我們在 0% 的時間內提高了所有業務成功指標。

A few examples of where superiority is driving growth include our Fabric Care business where, in the U.S., we grew organic volume 6% behind superior innovations, like Tide PODS, Gain Flings and fabric enhancer scent beads. These innovations had been the driving force of Fabric Care market growth. Unit-dose detergents and scent beads have driven Japan Fabric Care to record organic sales growth of 9%. In Europe, Fabric Care organic sales grew 5% for the second consecutive year, driving category growth and delivering 27 consecutive months of share growth.

優勢推動增長的幾個例子包括我們的織物護理業務，在美國，我們的有機銷量增長了 6%，落後於卓越的創新，如 Tide PODS、Gain Flings 和織物增強劑香味珠。這些創新一直是織物護理市場增長的驅動力。單位劑量洗滌劑和香珠推動 Japan Fabric Care 有機銷售額增長 9%。在歐洲，織物護理有機銷售額連續第二年增長 5%，推動了品類增長並實現了連續 27 個月的份額增長。

Feminine Care has delivered 11 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth with the combination of outstanding product innovations and packaging on Always pads and Always Discreet in adult continence. They've developed compelling marketing campaigns that are building brand equity and driving trial. They're growing the category, earnings strong distribution and display of new items, they're driving trade-up to premium variants that consumers view as an excellent value for the product performance they receive.

女性護理產品連續 11 個季度實現有機銷售增長，結合 Always 護墊和 Always Discreet 成人失禁產品的出色產品創新和包裝。他們制定了引人注目的營銷活動，以建立品牌資產和推動試用。他們正在擴大品類，獲得強勁的分銷和展示新商品，他們正在推動以舊換新到消費者認為對他們所獲得的產品性能具有卓越價值的高端變體。

Turning to Skin Care, Olay and SK-II are serving different segments in the Skin Care markets, and both our delivering strong results by improving superiority. SK-II sales have grown for 15 consecutive quarters at an average rate of over 20%, including 30% last fiscal year. SK-II's superior product is based on a proprietary formula that works to dramatically rejuvenate the skin's appearance. It's a product that solves problems for consumers in a noticeable way. It's presented in prestige packaging that builds brand equity and consumer confidence in the product.

談到護膚品，玉蘭油和 SK-II 分別服務於護膚品市場的不同細分市場，並且我們都通過提高優勢取得了強勁的成果。 SK-II銷售額連續15個季度以平均超過20%的速度增長，其中上一財年增長30%。 SK-II 的卓越產品基於專有配方，可顯著改善肌膚外觀。它是一種以顯著方式為消費者解決問題的產品。它採用高檔包裝，可建立品牌資產和消費者對產品的信心。

SK-II's marketing campaign has accelerated growth of new users by connecting them on a more emotional level, while reinforcing product benefits. Excellent retail execution, in-stores and online, leverage a rich consumer database in technology, like our state-of-the-art skin analysis tool which we call the beauty imaging system to make a personal connection with consumers. The combination of this support SK-II's premium price and value for the consumer.

SK-II 的營銷活動通過在情感層面上與新用戶建立聯繫，同時增強了產品優勢，從而加速了新用戶的增長。出色的店內和網上零售執行，利用豐富的技術消費者數據庫，例如我們稱為美容成像系統的最先進的皮膚分析工具，以與消費者建立個人聯繫。這種組合支持 SK-II 的溢價和對消費者的價值。

Olay in China has delivered 5 consecutive quarters of double-digit organic sales growth behind superiority across all touch points. We launched Olay Cellscience last year, Olay's first-ever super peptide formula, delivering visible skin transformation in 28 days. We've upgraded Olay packaging to prestige-like quality and attractiveness. We've completely revamped our Olay beauty counselor program, where we've used a number of beauty counters and upgraded the remaining counters with higher and tighter standards. Our fearless of age (sic) [#FearlessAtAnyAge] campaign with an empowering message for consumers has driven consumption and has contributed to strong e-commerce sales that are up 80% fiscal year-to-date and has grown Olay's market share.

玉蘭油在中國已連續 5 個季度實現兩位數的有機銷售增長，這得益於所有接觸點的優勢。我們去年推出了 Olay Cellscience，這是玉蘭油首款超級肽配方，可在 28 天內帶來可見的皮膚變化。我們升級了玉蘭油的包裝，使之具有聲望般的品質和吸引力。我們徹底改造了我們的玉蘭油美容顧問計劃，我們使用了一些美容專櫃，並以更高更嚴格的標準升級了其餘的專櫃。我們的無畏年齡（原文如此）[#FearlessAtAnyAge] 活動向消費者傳達了賦權信息，推動了消費，並促進了強勁的電子商務銷售額，該銷售額在本財年迄今增長了 80%，並擴大了玉蘭油的市場份額。

And we've talked about the work we're doing to respond to a changing world and changing consumer needs, including increased demand for natural and sustainable products. We've now introduced products in nearly every category that address these emerging consumer needs: Tide purclean; Gain Botanicals; Dreft purtouch; ZzzQuil PURE Zzzs; Febreze ONE; Whisper Pure Cotton. And more recently, we just launched Pampers Pure Protection diapers and Aqua Pure wipes. Our natural segment offerings quadrupled sales in fiscal '18. We expect more than double sales again in '19.

我們還談到了我們正在做的工作，以應對不斷變化的世界和不斷變化的消費者需求，包括對天然和可持續產品的需求增加。我們現在推出了幾乎所有類別的產品來滿足這些新興的消費者需求：Tide purclean；獲得植物藥；漂移 purtouch; ZzzQuil 純 Zzzs；紡必適一號；耳語純棉。最近，我們剛剛推出了 Pampers Pure Protection 紙尿褲和 Aqua Pure 濕巾。我們的自然細分產品在 18 財年的銷售額翻了兩番。我們預計 19 年的銷售額將再次翻一番以上。

We're in this game and in this important segment to win. We're augmenting organic innovations with acquisitions made of a natural deodorant in Snowberry Skin Care, a naturals brand based in New Zealand. We recently announced our agreement to acquire First Aid Beauty, a full line of prestige quality skin care products that deliver superior skin health solutions specifically designed for sensitive skin and skin conditions like redness, irritation and eczema.

我們在這場比賽中，在這個重要的環節中獲勝。我們通過收購新西蘭天然品牌 Snowberry Skin Care 中的天然除臭劑來加強有機創新。我們最近宣布了收購 First Aid Beauty 的協議，這是一個全系列的優質護膚產品，提供卓越的皮膚健康解決方案，專為敏感皮膚和皮膚狀況（如發紅、刺激和濕疹）設計。

We are leveraging lean innovation practices to create and extend product and packaging superiority faster and more cost effectively than ever before, and Pampers Pure is a good example. It reached the market in half the time of a typical product innovation in a very capital-intensive diaper category. We're using a lean approach to explore how we can solve new problems for consumers, addressing new jobs to be done. We have several new products in various stages of market testing right now. We brought them to that point at a fraction of the time and investment it would have taken us without this lean approach.

我們正在利用精益創新實踐，以比以往任何時候都更快、更具成本效益的方式創造和擴展產品和包裝的優勢，而幫寶適 (Pampers Pure) 就是一個很好的例子。它以資本密集型尿布類別中典型產品創新的一半時間進入市場。我們正在使用精益方法來探索我們如何為消費者解決新問題，解決新的工作要做。目前，我們有幾款新產品處於不同的市場測試階段。如果沒有這種精益方法，我們用很少的時間和投資將他們帶到那個點。

We're making a big move to more deliberately consider and pursue external monetization of P&G innovation in noncompeting industries and, occasionally, where we think the benefit of sharing the innovation will enhance value creation and the societal benefit can be meaningful, we may make the technology available within our competitor sets. I'll give you an example. Air-Assist packaging that we invented for e-commerce shipping of liquids that deliver significantly better visual impression and end user experience, and it reduces plastic usage by 50%. We just started licensing this technology broadly. We're doing the same with other P&G innovations that provide significant sustainability benefits.

我們正在採取重大舉措，更慎重地考慮並追求寶潔創新在非競爭行業的外部貨幣化，偶爾，在我們認為分享創新的好處將提高價值創造和社會效益可能有意義的地方，我們可能會我們的競爭對手中可用的技術。我給你舉個例子。我們為液體電子商務運輸發明的空氣輔助包裝可顯著改善視覺印象和最終用戶體驗，並將塑料用量減少 50%。我們剛剛開始廣泛授權這項技術。我們正在對其他具有顯著可持續性優勢的 P&G 創新採取同樣的做法。

We invented a breakthrough technology to revolutionize the plastic recycling industry. It separates color, odor and other contaminants from recycled polypropylene plastic to purify it into a nearly new quality resin. By allowing others to utilize and commercialize this technology, we'll lower the cost, unlock value and improve environmental sustainability of entire industries.

我們發明了一項突破性技術，徹底改變了塑料回收行業。它從回收的聚丙烯塑料中分離顏色、氣味和其他污染物，將其提純成幾乎全新的優質樹脂。通過允許其他人利用這項技術並將其商業化，我們將降低成本、釋放價值並改善整個行業的環境可持續性。

In addition to products and packages, we're improving the superiority of consumer communication and retail execution as well as consumer and customer value. At this year's Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, P&G and our agencies won 26 Lions for the outstanding work on P&G brand campaigns, including 2 of the Grand Prix honors for the "It's a Tide Ad" campaign, which launched during the Super Bowl and "The Talk," which started an important conversation about racial bias. We used the forum to announce further commitments to advancing diversity and gender equality in our advertising.

除了產品和包裝，我們還在提高消費者溝通和零售執行的優勢以及消費者和客戶價值。在今年的戛納國際創意節上，寶潔和我們的代理機構憑藉其在寶潔品牌宣傳活動中的出色表現贏得了 26 座獅子獎，其中包括在超級碗和“The Talk”，開啟了一場關於種族偏見的重要對話。我們利用該論壇宣布了在我們的廣告中促進多樣性和性別平等的進一步承諾。

Now an external measure of our improved retail execution is the global Advantage monitor report, an independent retailer assessment of manufacturers across 7 key focus areas. Our objective is to be ranked #1 overall in the top 1/3 versus competition in all areas. For the third straight year, we were #1 ranked globally, with the highest number of countries ranking P&G as the #1 manufacturer. We also ranked #1 in all 7 practice areas for the second year in a row, with noticeable improvements in the categories of business relationship and support, important category development, supply chain and customer service. We've done this by improving our capability to take faster action with customers and align our people with the categories they sell. We've increased investments to improve retail execution, distribution assortment and display and consumer and customer value, all important elements of our superiority strategy.

現在，我們改進零售執行的外部衡量標準是全球優勢監測報告，這是對 7 個關鍵重點領域製造商的獨立零售商評估。我們的目標是在所有領域的前 1/3 競爭中排名第一。我們連續第三年在全球排名第一，其中寶潔排名第一的國家數量最多。我們還連續第二年在所有 7 個業務領域中排名第一，在業務關係和支持、重要類別開發、供應鍊和客戶服務類別方面有了顯著改善。為此，我們提高了與客戶採取更快行動的能力，並使我們的員工與他們銷售的類別保持一致。我們增加了投資，以改善零售執行、分銷分類和展示以及消費者和客戶價值，這些都是我們優勢戰略的重要組成部分。

We're making good progress on extending our [margin of] advantage and increasing the quality of execution, but we face highly capable competitors who continue to innovate their products and business models. Addressing these challenges and extending our product and package advantages, superior execution and consumer and customer value will require continued investment. The need for this investment and the need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscores the importance of productivity.

我們在擴大我們的[邊際]優勢和提高執行質量方面取得了良好進展，但我們面臨著能力很強的競爭對手，他們繼續創新他們的產品和商業模式。應對這些挑戰並擴大我們的產品和包裝優勢、卓越的執行力以及消費者和客戶價值將需要持續投資。對這項投資的需求以及推動收入和利潤平衡增長（包括利潤率增長）的需求，凸顯了生產力的重要性。

We are driving cost savings and efficiency improvement in all facets of our business, approaching the midpoint of our second 5-year $10 billion productivity program. We've consistently delivered $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion in annual cost of goods sold savings. I expect we'll be at the high end of the range again this fiscal year.

我們正在推動我們業務各個方面的成本節約和效率提高，接近我們第二個 5 年 100 億美元生產力計劃的中點。我們一直在每年節省 12 億至 16 億美元的商品銷售成本。我預計本財年我們將再次處於該範圍的高端。

Another area of savings is the elimination of substantial waste in the media supply chain. A year ago, we highlighted the need for media transparency with 5 calls to action: one viewability standard; third-party measurement verification; transparent agency contracts; fraud elimination; and brand safety. The entire industry stepped up, including strong partnerships with Google and Facebook to take action on their platforms. The progress has been impressive, about 90% complete on delivering the appropriate standards and measurements. These efforts enable us to cut waste and reduce media cost by 20%.

另一個節省的領域是消除媒體供應鏈中的大量浪費。一年前，我們通過 5 項行動號召強調了媒體透明度的必要性：一個可見度標準；第三方測量驗證；透明的代理合同；消除欺詐；和品牌安全。整個行業都在加強，包括與穀歌和 Facebook 建立強有力的合作夥伴關係，在他們的平台上採取行動。進展令人印象深刻，在交付適當的標準和測量方面已完成約 90%。這些努力使我們能夠減少浪費並將媒體成本降低 20%。

In addition, we have eliminated waste related to excess frequency. A deeper look at third-party data indicated that some consumers were being reached by our ads 10 to 20 times in a month, significantly higher than our suggested average of 3. We've reduced excess frequency and reinvested these savings to increase media reach, the number of consumers seeing our ads, by a 10% -- by about 10% and trial-building activities by 50%. We see further opportunity moving from wasteful mass marketing to mass one-to-one brand building enabled by data and technology.

此外，我們還消除了與頻率過高相關的浪費。對第三方數據的更深入研究表明，我們的廣告在一個月內接觸了 10 到 20 次，明顯高於我們建議的平均 3 次。我們已經減少了過多的頻率並將這些節省的資金重新投資以增加媒體覆蓋面，看到我們廣告的消費者數量增加了 10%——大約增加了 10%，試用活動增加了 50%。我們看到了更多的機會，從浪費的大眾營銷轉向由數據和技術支持的大規模一對一品牌建設。

In China, where 70% of our media is digital and 30% of our sales are on e-commerce, we have one of the largest data management platforms in the country, which we use for consumer analytics. We can effectively manage frequency and engage people when and where it matters. We save 30% on digital spending in China, while increasing digital reach by 60%.

在中國，我們 70% 的媒體是數字媒體，30% 的銷售額來自電子商務，我們擁有該國最大的數據管理平台之一，用於消費者分析。我們可以有效地管理頻率並在重要的時間和地點吸引人們。我們在中國節省了 30% 的數字支出，同時將數字覆蓋範圍提高了 60%。

We're reinventing advertising for mass clutter to less doing more. For example, Olay China was running up to 6 different ads at a time and changing ads every 2 months. We now focus on one highly effective ad and stick with it over time. With fewer ads and lower frequency, we focus on creating deeper, one-to-one engagement by improving in-store presence. With these interventions, Olay China has delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth with media spending down 50% over the past 2 years.

我們正在重塑針對大眾混亂的廣告，以少做多。例如，玉蘭油中國一次投放多達 6 個不同的廣告，並且每 2 個月更換一次廣告。我們現在專注於一個高效的廣告，並隨著時間的推移堅持下去。通過減少廣告和降低頻率，我們專注於通過提高店內形象來創造更深入的一對一互動。通過這些干預措施，玉蘭油中國連續第五個季度實現兩位數增長，媒體支出在過去兩年下降了 50%。

With our access to data and analytics and experienced purchasing professionals, we can bring more media buys in-house. We are returning to one-stop shops where it makes sense, reuniting media and creative. We're implementing a fixed-and-flow model, reducing the number of agencies on fixed retrainers, while flowing creative resources in and out on an as-needed basis. These changes not only reduce the number of agencies and save money, but lead to better quality, greater creativity and faster ad development cycle times.

憑藉我們對數據和分析的訪問以及經驗豐富的採購專業人員，我們可以在內部進行更多的媒體購買。我們正在回歸有意義的一站式商店，重新組合媒體和創意。我們正在實施固定和流動模型，減少固定再培訓師的機構數量，同時根據需要流入和流出創意資源。這些變化不僅減少了代理機構的數量並節省了資金，而且帶來了更好的質量、更強的創造力和更快的廣告開發週期。

We've delivered nearly $1 billion of savings in advertising agency fees and production costs over the last 4 years. We see more savings potential on these areas, along with more efficiency and media delivery. We expect the majority of these savings to be reinvested in more effective delivery of ads to more consumers.

在過去 4 年中，我們在廣告代理費和製作成本方面節省了近 10 億美元。我們在這些領域看到了更多的節約潛力，以及更高的效率和媒體交付。我們預計這些節省的大部分資金將重新投資於向更多消費者更有效地投放廣告。

We'll continue to drive savings in the organization, redeploying resources closer to customers and customers, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of our business to operate at the speed of the market. We're focused on cost productivity and cash. We've made great progress on working capital. Over the past 5 years, we've improved receivables by 3 days, inventory by 10 days and payables by more than 30 days.

我們將繼續推動組織的節約，將資源重新部署到更靠近客戶和客戶的地方，提高我們業務的效率和有效性，以跟上市場的速度。我們專注於成本生產率和現金。我們在營運資金方面取得了很大進展。在過去的 5 年裡，我們將應收賬款時間縮短了 3 天，將庫存時間縮短了 10 天，將應付賬款時間縮短了 30 多天。

We're driving down cost in inventory with our supply network transformation. We're making progress toward our vision of synchronizing the supply chain with real-time point of sales data with the consumer purchase, triggering updates to our manufacturing schedules and orders of materials to suppliers.

我們正在通過供應網絡轉型降低庫存成本。我們正在朝著將供應鏈與實時銷售點數據與消費者購買同步的願景取得進展，觸發更新我們的製造計劃和供應商的材料訂單。

Our 6 new mixing centers in North America are enabling faster customer response times and optimize mixed product loads to improve customer service levels.

我們在北美的 6 個新混合中心正在加快客戶響應時間並優化混合產品負載以提高客戶服務水平。

P&G consistently holds best-in-class receivables positions. We're making further improvements by leveraging technology, using robotic process automation to digitize key elements of our work process. Over the last 3 years, in North America, we've delivered $100 million in savings and improved cash flow by reducing days outstanding by more than a day, while simultaneously improving productivity, reducing [roles] by 30% and organizational cost by 50%.

寶潔始終保持一流的應收賬款頭寸。我們正在通過利用技術、使用機器人流程自動化來數字化我們工作流程的關鍵要素來進一步改進。在過去的 3 年裡，在北美，我們通過將未完成的天數減少超過一天，同時提高了生產力，減少了 30% 的 [角色] 和 50% 的組織成本，從而節省了 1 億美元並改善了現金流.

An important cash productivity project has been supply chain financing, which we continue to expand. This program, which is a win for suppliers and for P&G, has yielded nearly $5 billion in cash in the 5 years we've been driving it. We improved payables by 5 full days last year on a constant currency basis.

一個重要的現金生產力項目是供應鏈融資，我們將繼續擴大該項目。這個計劃對供應商和寶潔來說都是一場胜利，在我們推動它的 5 年裡，它已經產生了近 50 億美元的現金。在固定貨幣基礎上，我們去年將應付賬款減少了 5 個整天。

Now alongside the productivity work, we're making needed organization structure and culture changes to position us to win in the changing retail and competitive landscape. We're moving more resources into the businesses and closer to the consumers we serve with higher accountability, more agility and greater speed. We're simplifying the organization structure and clarifying responsibility and accountability.

現在，除了生產力工作之外，我們還在進行必要的組織結構和文化變革，以使我們能夠在不斷變化的零售和競爭環境中取勝。我們正在將更多資源轉移到業務中，並以更高的責任感、更大的敏捷性和更快的速度更貼近我們所服務的消費者。我們正在精簡組織架構，明確職責和責任。

We're tailoring the organization to win by category and by market. One great example is Greater China, moving from minus 5 sales in fiscal '16 all the way to plus 7 in fiscal '18, behind China-specific innovations, more on-the-ground resources and better execution across all trade channels at the speed of China. We can't afford this level of on-the-ground resources by category in all markets. The direction in smaller markets has changed from every category managing low-level activities in each country to each category building a framework at the start of the year and enabling the local market experts to run the business consistent with those plans. The Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and distributor markets group is a great example. The group has accelerated organic sales growth from double-digit declines to strong growth over the last year.

我們正在調整組織以按類別和市場取勝。一個很好的例子是大中華區，從 16 財年的負 5 銷售額一路飆升到 18 財年的正 7，這得益於針對中國的創新、更多的實地資源以及所有貿易渠道的快速執行中國。我們無法在所有市場上按類別提供這種水平的實地資源。較小市場的方向已經從每個類別管理每個國家/地區的低級別活動轉變為每個類別在年初建立框架並使本地市場專家能夠按照這些計劃開展業務。馬來西亞、新加坡、越南和分銷商市場集團就是一個很好的例子。去年，該集團的有機銷售增長從兩位數的下降加速到強勁增長。

We're supplementing our internal talent with skilled, experienced external hiring to improve category mastery. We're strengthening compensation and incentive programs. A year ago, we increased the granularity of annual bonus awards, moving from about 20 bonus pools to over 100, tying incentives closer to results individuals deliver. Last December we announced that the board's compensation and leadership development committee modified the performance stock program available to our top 200 or so leaders to include relative sales growth metrics and a total shareholder return modifier to ensure awards reflect performance versus external competitive benchmarks. These changes go in effect this fiscal year.

我們正在通過熟練、經驗豐富的外部招聘來補充我們的內部人才，以提高對類別的掌握。我們正在加強薪酬和激勵計劃。一年前，我們增加了年度獎金獎勵的粒度，從大約 20 個獎金池增加到 100 多個，使激勵措施更接近個人提供的結果。去年 12 月，我們宣布董事會的薪酬和領導力發展委員會修改了我們前 200 名左右領導者可用的績效股票計劃，以包括相對銷售增長指標和股東總回報修正值，以確保獎勵反映績效與外部競爭基準的對比。這些變化在本財年生效。

Last month, we announced further adjustments to the annual bonus program, increasing the percentage of total compensation at risk, increasing the weighting of business unit results versus company results, now with a 70% business and 30% company versus 50-50 in the past. We've widened the payout factors for the business unit and the company components to 0 to 200% of target and increased the number of people participating in the program. Each of these organization and culture changes are aimed at creating a company designed to win in today's market with today's consumer at the speed of the market, more agile, more, accountable, more efficient, more productive. Our focus on superiority, enabled by a strong productivity cost savings program and supported by an improved organization and culture, will yield faster growth, higher margins and strong cash generation.

上個月，我們宣布進一步調整年度獎金計劃，提高風險薪酬總額的百分比，提高業務部門業績與公司業績的比重，現在業務為 70%，公司為 30%，過去為 50-50 .我們已將業務部門和公司組成部分的支付係數擴大到目標的 0% 到 200%，並增加了參與該計劃的人數。這些組織和文化變革中的每一個都旨在創建一家旨在以當今市場的速度贏得當今市場的公司，更敏捷、更負責任、更高效、更有生產力。在強大的生產力成本節約計劃和改進的組織和文化的支持下，我們對優勢的關注將帶來更快的增長、更高的利潤和強勁的現金產生。

I'll turn it back to Jon to cover the outlook for fiscal 2019.

我會把它轉回 Jon 來介紹 2019 財年的前景。

The dynamic macro environment from this past fiscal year, geopolitical impacts on markets, tariffs, intense competition, rising input costs, headwinds from FX will continue to confront us in fiscal '19. We've attempted to construct guidance ranges that reflect this reality at their midpoints and through the range.

上一財年的動態宏觀環境、地緣政治對市場的影響、關稅、激烈的競爭、不斷上升的投入成本、來自外彙的不利因素將在 19 財年繼續困擾我們。我們試圖構建在中點和整個範圍內反映這一現實的指導範圍。

We expect to make further progress on market share, but there will likely continue to be a gap between retail sales and P&G sales as trade inventories continue to contract until we annualize more of the investments we've made over the last year and until new price increases are reflected in our results. We're taking a price increase of around 4% on Pampers diapers in North America. Just yesterday, we began notifying customers across North America that we're taking a list price increase on Bounty, Charmin's and Puffs brands, which averages around 5% across the category on an annual basis. Bounty and Charmin pricing will be effective October 31 and Puffs in February.

我們希望在市場份額上取得進一步進展，但隨著貿易庫存繼續收縮，零售額和寶潔銷售額之間可能會繼續存在差距，直到我們對去年所做的更多投資進行年化計算，直到新價格出現增加反映在我們的結果中。北美幫寶適紙尿褲的價格上漲了 4% 左右。就在昨天，我們開始通知北美各地的客戶，我們將對 Bounty、Charmin's 和 Puffs 品牌進行標價上調，該類別的年平均漲幅約為 5%。 Bounty 和 Charmin 定價將於 10 月 31 日生效，Puffs 定價將於 2 月生效。

As commodity prices and foreign exchange rates continue to move, we'll take pricing when the degree of cost impact warrants it and competitive realities allow it. There is uncertainty and will be volatility with these pricing moves. They will negatively impact consumption. We'll have to adjust as we go and as we learn. Against this backdrop, we're currently expecting organic sales growth in the range of 2% to 3% for fiscal 2019. We expect organic sales growth to be driven by organic volume growth. Pricing will start the year as a drag on sales growth, but should turn positive by the end of the fiscal year.

隨著大宗商品價格和外匯匯率的不斷變化，我們將在成本影響程度合理且競爭現實允許的情況下進行定價。這些定價變動存在不確定性，並且會出現波動。它們將對消費產生負面影響。我們必須邊走邊學，不斷調整。在此背景下，我們目前預計 2019 財年的有機銷售額增長將在 2% 至 3% 之間。我們預計有機銷售額增長將由有機銷量增長推動。定價將在今年年初拖累銷售增長，但到本財年末應該會轉為正數。

All-in sales growth is forecast in the range of in line to up 1% versus last year. This includes a headwind of about 2 points from the combination of foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures. The all-in outlook also includes the impact of lost sales from the dissolution of the personal health care joint venture with Teva at the start of the fiscal year and the assumption that we'll close the acquisition of Merck's OTC business at the end of the calendar year.

與去年相比，總銷售額預計增長 1%。這包括外匯以及收購和資產剝離組合帶來的約 2 個百分點的逆風。總體前景還包括本財年開始時與 Teva 的個人醫療保健合資企業解散導致銷售損失的影響，以及我們將在本財年末結束對默克非處方藥業務的收購的假設公曆年。

Our bottom line guidance is for core earnings per share growth of 3% to 8%. This range includes a $900 million after-tax headwind from the combination of foreign exchange rates and commodity costs; $0.5 billion from FX; and the balance from commodities. At the midpoint of the range, fiscal year core earnings per share guidance is $4.45 per share. Excluding the macro impacts, the low, mid and top of the core earnings per share range each reflect double-digit earnings per share growth.

我們的底線指導是核心每股收益增長 3% 至 8%。這一範圍包括外匯匯率和商品成本相結合帶來的 9 億美元稅後逆風；外匯 5 億美元；和商品的平衡。在該範圍的中點，本財年每股核心收益指引為每股 4.45 美元。排除宏觀影響，核心每股收益範圍的低、中和高分別反映了兩位數的每股收益增長。

Interest expense, interest income and nonoperating income will be a net drag of about 2.5 points on core earnings per share growth. We estimate the core effective tax rate will be in the range of 19% to 20% for the year, adding about 2.5 points to core earnings per share growth. This tax rate is just 2 points lower than we first projected when we discussed the impacts of U.S. tax reform, given we have now had the time to fully assess the nuances of the new laws. We expect diluted share count to be at 2 percentage points lower in fiscal '19. We plan to deliver another year of 90% or better adjusted free cash flow productivity. This includes CapEx in the range of 5% to 5.5%.

利息支出、利息收入和營業外收入將淨拖累核心每股收益增長約 2.5 個百分點。我們估計今年核心有效稅率將在 19% 至 20% 之間，為核心每股收益增長增加約 2.5 個百分點。考慮到我們現在有時間全面評估新法律的細微差別，該稅率僅比我們在討論美國稅制改革的影響時最初預測的低 2 個百分點。我們預計 19 財年攤薄後的股份數量將減少 2 個百分點。我們計劃在另一年實現 90% 或更好的調整後自由現金流生產率。這包括 5% 至 5.5% 範圍內的資本支出。

We'll continue our strong track record of cash return to shareholders. We increased our dividend in April, as I said earlier, for the 62nd consecutive year. We expect to pay over $7 billion in dividends and repurchase up to $5 billion of stock in fiscal 2019. The share repurchase range factors in the cash required to complete the acquisition of Merck's OTC business during the year and cash spent on other deals.

我們將繼續保持向股東提供現金回報的良好記錄。正如我之前所說，我們在 4 月份連續第 62 年增加了股息。我們預計將在 2019 財年支付超過 70 億美元的股息並回購高達 50 億美元的股票。股票回購範圍包括年內完成收購默克場外交易業務所需的現金以及用於其他交易的現金。

Our guidance is based on current market growth rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant currency weakness, commodity cost increases or additional geopolitical disruptions are not anticipated within this guidance range. As you consider the quarterly profile of your sales and earnings estimates, please keep in mind the pricing dynamics I described earlier. We'll mitigate more of the commodity and FX headwind in the second half of the year. Productivity savings should build as the year progresses. As a result, we expect somewhat stronger organic sales growth in the second half. Bottom line results will be pressured most in Q1 and improve throughout the year.

我們的指導基於當前的市場增長率、商品價格和外匯匯率。在此指導範圍內，預計不會出現嚴重的貨幣疲軟、商品成本增加或其他地緣政治干擾。當你考慮你的銷售和收入估計的季度概況時，請記住我之前描述的定價動態。我們將在今年下半年減輕更多商品和外匯逆風。隨著時間的推移，生產力的節省應該會增加。因此，我們預計下半年有機銷售增長會有所增強。底線結果將在第一季度受到最大壓力，並在全年有所改善。

Now I'll hand it back to David for some quick closing comments.

現在，我將把它交還給 David，讓他做一些簡短的結束評論。

While the external environment presents many challenges, we're making important progress, and we're accelerating the pace of change. Our efforts to extend our margin of competitive superiority to drive productivity savings to fund investments for growth and enhance our industry-leading margins to simplify our organization structure and increase accountability are all aimed at one thing, delivering balanced top and bottom line growth that creates value of the short, mid and long term. We know we have more work to do, but we're up to the challenge. And we're committed to take the actions needed to win.

在外部環境挑戰重重的同時，我們正在取得重要進展，正在加快變革步伐。我們努力擴大我們的競爭優勢，推動生產力節約，為增長投資提供資金，並提高我們行業領先的利潤率，以簡化我們的組織結構和加強問責制，所有這些都是為了一件事，即實現平衡的頂線和底線增長，創造價值的短期、中期和長期。我們知道我們還有更多工作要做，但我們已準備好迎接挑戰。我們致力於採取取勝所需的行動。

And with that, Jon and I are happy to take your questions.

有了這個，喬恩和我很樂意回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your question first comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的問題首先來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I just want to talk a little bit about pricing overall, at least pricing as it flowed through on the P&L being down, call it, roughly 2% this quarter. In the release and in the commentary today, you talked about a couple of different things. So investments made in consumer and customer value, retail execution, of course, driving trial, as you've talked about, so if you could maybe parse a little bit for us some of the investments you're making, what's showing up in store, the couponing element because, obviously, it was a very big spread between what happened with the U.S. Nielsen data through the quarter and what the reported U.S. organic felt like and then what your visibility is or confidence is that volume will continue to respond that this isn't -- shouldn't be placed in the bucket of they're buying volume and this too shall pass if you pull back on some of the -- these investments that you've mentioned.

我只想談一談整體定價，至少是在本季度損益表下降時的定價，稱之為大約 2%。在今天的新聞稿和評論中，您談到了一些不同的事情。因此，正如您所說，在消費者和客戶價值、零售執行方面進行的投資，當然還有試駕，優惠券元素，因為很明顯，該季度美國尼爾森數據與報告的美國有機產品的情況之間存在很大差異，然後您的知名度或信心是數量將繼續對此作出反應不是 - 不應該放在他們購買量的桶中，如果你撤回一些你提到的這些投資，這也會過去。

Okay. I'll make some comments. And then, certainly, Jon can jump in on a couple more thoughts. First, the interventions that we've made to date have made sure that we got back in pricing quarters that we know position our brands to win over time. And then the superiority then kicks in when you're in a reasonable range. We've made those across the business. And frankly, I'm encouraged by the share results we're seeing, and I feel we've gotten to a very good place now. We'll have to see what happens going forward with competitive pricing and the pricing we're taking. But right now, the trends, to me, are very positive, indicating the interventions on both -- customer consumer product are making a big difference. We announced -- or Jon mentioned a little bit about 2 of the categories that had been under the most pressure because of rising commodity cost. Pricing has gone into the market, one, now on Pampers and Baby Care and, secondly, later this fall on Family Care. These are aimed to address commodity cost the entire industry is experiencing. So I believe that the interventions that we've made and the investments we've made are showing up, whether it's the U.S. or China or across the world. The trends of share growth were indicating that P&G is getting more competitive on the key brands and key categories that really matter to the company's growth.

好的。我會發表一些評論。然後，當然，喬恩可以跳出更多的想法。首先，我們迄今為止所做的干預確保我們回到定價季度，我們知道定位我們的品牌以隨著時間的推移贏得勝利。然後，當您處於合理範圍內時，優勢就會發揮作用。我們已經在整個業務中實現了這些。坦率地說，我對我們看到的分享結果感到鼓舞，我覺得我們現在已經到了一個非常好的地方。我們必須看看有競爭力的定價和我們正在採取的定價會發生什麼。但現在，對我來說，趨勢是非常積極的，表明對兩者的干預——客戶消費產品正在產生很大的不同。我們宣布 - 或者 Jon 提到了一些由於商品成本上漲而承受最大壓力的 2 個類別。定價已經進入市場，其一，現在是幫寶適和嬰兒護理，其次是今年秋天晚些時候的家庭護理。這些旨在解決整個行業正在經歷的商品成本。所以我相信我們所做的干預和我們所做的投資正在顯現，無論是美國、中國還是世界各地。份額增長的趨勢表明，寶潔在對公司增長真正重要的關鍵品牌和關鍵品類上的競爭力越來越強。

Your next question comes from the line of Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Wendy Nicholson。

Could you talk a little bit more about China because those numbers sounded actually terrific to me? 10% growth in the fourth quarter is great. So number one, what was the cost of that growth? Did your margins go up or down maybe for all of fiscal '18 relative to '17? What's your outlook for growth in China for fiscal '19? And I know you said that Baby has turned positive -- Baby turned positive in the fourth quarter, but how much of that growth was driven just by SK-II and Olay? Are other categories like Oral Care or whatever else taking into the China growth? Just more color on that market would be great.

你能多談談中國嗎，因為這些數字對我來說聽起來真的很棒？第四季度 10% 的增長很棒。那麼第一，這種增長的成本是多少？相對於 17 財年，整個 18 財年的利潤率是上升還是下降？您對 19 財年中國的增長前景有何看法？我知道你說過 Baby 已經轉正——Baby 在第四季度轉正，但這種增長有多少是由 SK-II 和玉蘭油推動的？口腔護理等其他品類是否也參與了中國市場的增長？那個市場上的更多顏色會很棒。

Sure. I'll make some comments on that, and we're very pleased with China. You know the trends. We've talked this at probably every investor conference, the minus 5 to plus 1 to plus 7. We've improved across the majority of brands. And frankly, the fourth quarter was very encouraging at plus 10. And we have 6 or 7 categories are growing or holding share. Baby has been the one exclusion and it's turned in the fourth quarter to growing sales. And Baby in China started growing share on the hyper and online channels, which is critically important. And to me, the breadth is strong. The fact that e-commerce, most of our brands now are holding or growing share and in the hyper are growing share is very encouraging to me. Yes, SK-II and Olay were very important and they grew. But again, it's broad based. Fem Care grew 18%. We've had very strong growth now for 2 years on power Oral Care and that's turning. Fabric Care was, I think, mid- to high-single digits recently. So businesses that had struggled in the past, the superiority investments and, importantly, the organizational change that put on-the-ground capability is now getting this operating at a speed that is showing tremendous progress. I think we mentioned earlier, front half 6, back half 8, all trending in the direction we want. So I'm very encouraged by it. Jon?

當然。我會就此發表一些評論，我們對中國非常滿意。你知道趨勢。我們可能在每一次投資者會議上都談到過這個問題，從負 5 到正 1 到正 7。我們已經在大多數品牌中取得了進步。坦率地說，第四季度增長 10 非常令人鼓舞。我們有 6 或 7 個類別正在增長或保持份額。 Baby 一直是唯一的例外，它在第四季度的銷售額開始增長。中國的寶貝在超級渠道和在線渠道上的份額開始增長，這一點至關重要。對我來說，廣度很強。事實上，電子商務，我們的大多數品牌現在都持有或增長份額，而在超級市場中，份額也在增長，這對我來說非常鼓舞人心。是的，SK-II 和玉蘭油非常重要，而且它們在成長。但同樣，它的基礎很廣泛。女性護理增長了 18%。兩年來，我們在強力口腔護理方面取得了非常強勁的增長，而且這種情況正在發生轉變。我認為，織物護理最近達到了中高個位數。因此，過去苦苦掙扎的企業、優勢投資以及重要的是，提供實地能力的組織變革現在正在以顯示出巨大進步的速度運作。我想我們之前提到過，前半部分 6，後半部分 8，都朝著我們想要的方向發展。所以我很受鼓舞。喬恩？

And with that, just briefly, both before-tax and after-tax margins increasing year-on-year. So it's been a productive investment, and we expect that to continue.

簡而言之，稅前和稅後利潤率都同比增長。所以這是一項富有成效的投資，我們希望這種投資能夠繼續下去。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Bill Chappell。

Can you just, I guess, delve a little bit further into Grooming in terms of, I guess, what you were talking about on Harry's and what you're seeing? It did seem like there were some positive data points. Or I guess, you had talked about some positive data points maybe that it had bottomed out intra-quarter. So have we seen the bottom? Are you seeing kind of increased competition as we move into the back half? And kind of how should we look at that over the next year?

我猜，你能否就你在 Harry's 上談論的內容和你所看到的內容進一步深入研究 Grooming？似乎確實有一些積極的數據點。或者我猜，你已經談到了一些積極的數據點，也許它已經在季度內觸底。那麼我們看到底部了嗎？當我們進入後半部分時，您是否看到競爭加劇？明年我們應該如何看待它？

A couple comments. The interventions we made last year, clearly, have made a difference, and you're seeing that in the U.S. share results. The fact that they turned positive over the last 3 and 6 months is a strong indication. We've got our eyes, though, very wide open. Harry's is expanding distribution in Walmart. We expect continued competition online, but in the U.S. and now in several markets in Europe. However, this time, we'll be much more attentive to making sure we support the business online and offline, both in the U.S. and in Europe and, frankly, across the world. And it's reflected at the total positive trends on Grooming share, if you look globally, and in the U.S. I do want to be very open about -- we expect the competitive environment to stay very heavy for a while. And the right actions would be get within pricing corridor, superior products, improved in-store execution and then we've stepped up our investment in capability online, both in U.S. and Europe. And most recently, we've been gaining new users at a faster rate than our competition in the last couple of months, even in the U.S. So we understand and see the opportunity, and we're going to address in each market, online or offline, what it takes to grow because we clearly have the superior products. We clearly have the ladder that gives us the tools to win. And now that we're putting innovation in disposables, mid-tier and the premium tier, I think we're well positioned now to grow this business.

一些評論。顯然，我們去年所做的干預產生了影響，你會在美國分享結果中看到這一點。他們在過去 3 個月和 6 個月內轉為積極的事實是一個強有力的跡象。不過，我們已經睜大了眼睛。 Harry's 正在擴大在沃爾瑪的分銷。我們預計在線競爭將繼續存在，但在美國，現在在歐洲的幾個市場。然而，這一次，我們將更加專注於確保我們支持在線和離線業務，無論是在美國還是在歐洲，坦率地說，在世界範圍內。這反映在美容份額的總體積極趨勢上，如果你放眼全球，在美國，我確實想非常開放——我們預計競爭環境將在一段時間內保持非常沉重。正確的行動將是在定價通道、優質產品、改進店內執行方面取得進展，然後我們在美國和歐洲加大了對在線能力的投資。最近，我們在過去幾個月以比競爭對手更快的速度獲得新用戶，甚至在美國也是如此。所以我們了解並看到了機會，我們將在每個市場上解決問題，在線或線下，增長需要什麼，因為我們顯然擁有優質的產品。我們顯然擁有為我們提供獲勝工具的階梯。現在我們正在一次性、中端和高端進行創新，我認為我們現在已經做好了發展這項業務的準備。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自 Jason English with Goldman Sachs。

I want to stick on the topic of diving a little bit deeper in just some of the segments. Profitability or margins were particularly soft in Baby and. Fem. I presume that's predominantly the input cost environment, hence the pricing. Can you confirm that? And then can you go a little bit deeper in Fabric and Home? I was surprised to see the margin degradation there. And I was also surprised to see the reference to investments in consumer and customer value given the strong innovation you've had in that segment.

我想堅持在某些細分市場中更深入地探討這個話題。 Baby and 的盈利能力或利潤率特別疲軟。女性。我認為這主要是投入成本環境，因此是定價。你能證實嗎？然後你能更深入地了解 Fabric 和 Home 嗎？我很驚訝地看到那裡的保證金下降。鑑於您在該領域的強大創新，我也很驚訝地看到對消費者和客戶價值投資的提及。

Thanks, Jason. You've just mentioned the 3 categories where the commodity cost impacts are the most significant from both the pulp and energy basis, the paper businesses and, clearly, from a petro complex standpoint on the Fabric Care business. Those are also businesses where freight cost and delivery is a relatively high aspect of the cost structure. And as you know, the transportation market, particularly in the U.S., has presented us with some challenges as the year progressed. So that is, indeed. You rightly cite the reason why our margins are compressed in those businesses. As we make moves, both from an innovation standpoint and a pricing standpoint, we expect to recover that margin. We did make some investments in Fabric Care in the U.S. in both customer value and consumer value, and that's really just designed to continue the momentum in that business and continue pushing that market. And the business has responded very well with volume up 6%, value also increasing, and so we're reasonably happy with those choices.

謝謝，傑森。您剛剛提到了商品成本影響最顯著的 3 個類別，無論是從紙漿和能源基礎、造紙業務，還是從石油綜合體對織物護理業務的角度來看。這些也是運費和交付成本結構中相對較高的方面的企業。如您所知，隨著時間的推移，運輸市場，尤其是美國的運輸市場，給我們帶來了一些挑戰。確實如此。你正確地引用了我們在這些業務中的利潤率被壓縮的原因。隨著我們採取行動，無論是從創新的角度還是定價的角度來看，我們都希望能夠恢復這一利潤。我們確實在客戶價值和消費者價值方面對美國的 Fabric Care 進行了一些投資，這實際上只是為了延續該業務的發展勢頭並繼續推動該市場。業務反應非常好，銷量增長了 6%，價值也在增長，因此我們對這些選擇感到相當滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 Nik Modi 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

I was hoping you guys could reconcile kind of this dynamic of -- Jon, to your point, P&G has very good margins, industry-leading margins. But at the same time, you have a lot of competitors that are money-losing. And it almost seems like capital is unlimited out there right now for startups. So I'm just wondering how you guys internally think about that dynamic because it doesn't look like -- or it doesn't feel like that trend is going to slow down anytime soon.

我希望你們能調和這種動態——喬恩，就你的觀點而言，寶潔的利潤率非常高，行業領先。但與此同時，你有很多虧損的競爭對手。對於創業公司來說，現在的資金似乎是無限的。所以我只是想知道你們內部如何看待這種動態，因為它看起來不像——或者感覺這種趨勢不會很快放緩。

Well, I think, Nik -- and Dave can comment on this as well. We've talked about the need to offer competitive value propositions across all price tiers that we choose to compete in, and that's versus multinational competitors. It's also versus local and regional competitors and startups. And we needed to be more productive from a cost structure standpoint to do that and still generate the margins that we feel we need to earn. And so that's why we keep talking about the combination of 3 things. One is increasing Advantage, which does allow us to price above the market at times; productivity, which funds the investments in Advantage and also provides margin; and also consumer and customer value competitiveness. All 3 of those have to go together and -- for us to win, whether that's first versus a startup or an established multinational competitor.

好吧，我想 Nik 和 Dave 也可以對此發表評論。我們已經討論過需要在我們選擇競爭的所有價格層級中提供有競爭力的價值主張，這與跨國競爭對手相比。它還與本地和區域競爭對手和初創公司競爭。從成本結構的角度來看，我們需要提高生產力才能做到這一點，同時還要產生我們認為需要賺取的利潤。這就是為什麼我們一直在談論三件事的結合。一是增加優勢，這確實讓我們有時可以高於市場定價；生產力，為 Advantage 的投資提供資金並提供保證金；以及消費者和客戶價值競爭力。這三者必須齊心協力——我們才能獲勝，無論是首先對抗初創公司還是成熟的跨國競爭對手。

The other thing I'd to add to that is what you say is very real. I mean, you face reality. There are some people coming into categories that are aggressively spending. What we're choosing to do is make sure we're being more competitive in protecting our businesses. And to me, when we do that and leverage the tools that we have, I think we're in a good place to be able to sustain the appropriate support to build the brand over time. And that may call for us at some times in some countries and some brands to be more aggressive to make sure that we don't see a good bit of market share when we truly have a better proposition for consumers and a sustainable proposition, and I think that's one of the opportunities. If I look back over the last couple of years is when there first is a very substantive competitive threat, to make sure each category, each country addresses the appropriate action, and that will look very different depending on the category and the country and the competitor. But clearly, we believe that the combination of these 5 elements of superiority positions us well to be able to sustain both share and margin growth over time.

我要補充的另一件事是你說的很真實。我的意思是，你面對現實。有些人進入了積極消費的類別。我們選擇做的是確保我們在保護我們的業務方面更具競爭力。對我來說，當我們這樣做並利用我們擁有的工具時，我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，能夠隨著時間的推移維持適當的支持來建立品牌。這可能要求我們有時在某些國家和某些品牌更加積極，以確保當我們真正為消費者提供更好的建議和可持續的建議時，我們不會看到太多的市場份額，我認為這是機會之一。如果我回顧過去幾年，當第一次出現非常實質性的競爭威脅時，要確保每個類別、每個國家/地區都採取適當的行動，而且根據類別、國家和競爭對手的不同，這看起來會有很大不同.但顯然，我們相信這 5 個優勢要素的結合使我們能夠隨著時間的推移保持份額和利潤率的增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So I hate to belabor the pricing point. You guys mentioned progress in a number of areas in the last fiscal year x organic sales, but margins and profit ended up being disappointing. I think you're only up 1% year-over-year. You'd originally expected 5% to 6%. I get the commodities ran up, so I'm not necessarily looking to go back through that. But what's surprising is when there is large commodity pressure, you're also seeing negative pricing. And the pricing decelerated throughout the year. It doesn't sound like we should expect much recovery of that in fiscal 2019. And perhaps, even commodity pressure is above pricing, yet, again. So I'm just trying to understand the forward-looking strategy at a very high level, perhaps taking advantage of your presence on the call, David. Is this lack of pricing power just sort of more the reality of the marketplace now with the retailer pushback, a competitive brand, a competitor environment, private label pressure, et cetera? Is it more of a purposeful choice in your minds to drive P&G market share as you articulated and hopefully reinvigorate organic sales growth? I'm just sort of wondering, is this a new normal going forward where we shouldn't expect much pricing from P&G and how you think about that at a very high level?

所以我討厭強調定價點。你們提到了上一財年在許多領域取得的進展 x 有機銷售額，但利潤率和利潤最終令人失望。我認為你同比只增長了 1%。您最初預計為 5% 至 6%。我讓商品價格上漲，所以我不一定要回過頭來。但令人驚訝的是，當大宗商品面臨巨大壓力時，您還會看到負定價。全年定價都在減速。聽起來我們不應該期待 2019 財年的複蘇。也許，即使是大宗商品壓力也再次高於定價。所以我只是想在一個非常高的層次上理解前瞻性戰略，也許利用你在電話中的存在，大衛。這種定價權的缺乏是否更像是現在市場的現實，包括零售商的反擊、競爭品牌、競爭環境、自有品牌壓力等等？正如您所說的那樣，推動寶潔的市場份額並希望重振有機銷售增長，這在您看來是否更有目的性？我只是有點想知道，這是未來的新常態嗎？我們不應該期望寶潔公司定價過高，你是如何在一個非常高的水平上看待這個問題的？

Yes. First, no, I do not think that the new normal is we don't have pricing power at all. What I do believe is it varies by category when you take pricing and how much you take pricing. It is not unusual in several categories. If I take the one that we announced yesterday on tissue towel, it's not unusual to -- for the industry to wait until the commodity cost build up to a certain level to be able to take pricing. Then there's a threshold, you take it and you do recover. If you look over time, over 3, 5 years in many of these industries, and I've got a lot of familiarity with the tissue towel industry, we've been able to recover those costs. And do I see anything fundamentally changing that tells me we could not recover those costs? Well, not at all. I believe superior products at competitive prices will win. And I believe, in time, the industry has to address input cost. And it just sometimes doesn't happen in the first 3 to 6 months that you see those. The other thing that I very much believe is when executed well, superior products command premium pricing. And we've got excellent examples of that, whether it's China or the U.S. And again, it just causes us to have to up our game on the level of superiority and [has] to up our game on the productivity in the periods of time we have to bridge cost going up before we're able to address that, either with innovation or with pricing. But we are -- we do not accept that we've lost pricing power. We do not accept that any category doesn't have the responsibility over time to grow, but it's the 'over time', and there'll be smart times to do it, and we learned a lot from 2 or 3 years ago when we may have been too aggressive trying to recover and got ahead of the market, but, over time, very committed to deliver the sustainable margin growth in sales and share growth that I think our investors expect of us.

是的。首先，不，我不認為新常態是我們根本沒有定價權。我確實相信，當你定價時以及你定價多少時，它因類別而異。這在幾個類別中並不罕見。如果我拿我們昨天在紙巾上宣布的那個來說，這並不罕見——行業要等到商品成本上升到一定水平才能定價。然後有一個閾值，你接受它，你就會恢復。如果你看一下時間，在許多這些行業中超過 3 年、5 年，而且我對紙巾行業非常熟悉，我們已經能夠收回這些成本。我是否看到任何根本性的變化告訴我我們無法收回這些成本？好吧，一點也不。我相信具有競爭力價格的優質產品將會獲勝。而且我相信，隨著時間的推移，該行業必須解決投入成本問題。有時在您看到這些的前 3 到 6 個月內不會發生。我非常相信的另一件事是，如果執行得當，優質的產品會獲得溢價。我們有很好的例子，無論是中國還是美國。再一次，這只會讓我們不得不在優勢水平上提升我們的遊戲，並且[已經]在一段時間內提升我們的生產力在我們能夠解決這個問題之前，我們必須通過創新或定價來彌補成本的上升。但我們 - 我們不接受我們已經失去定價權。我們不接受任何類別都沒有隨著時間的推移而增長的責任，但這是“隨著時間的推移”，會有明智的時機去做，我們從 2 或 3 年前學到了很多東西，當時我們可能過於激進地試圖恢復並領先於市場，但隨著時間的推移，我們非常致力於實現可持續的銷售利潤率增長和我認為我們的投資者對我們的份額增長的期望。

Next question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Ali Dibadj 與 Bernstein 的對話。

Just to, David, follow up on that, and you mentioned, over time, want to focus on 2019 as time and get a sense of your confidence in the guidance. First, in terms of the acceleration in top line, the 2% to 3% organic sales, what does that assume in terms of price mix versus volume? Is it more kind of Marlboro Friday-type, [Thursday-type] pricing and couponing, so price mix there? Is it -- and then the 2% to 3% top line turns into a pretty wide range of EPS at the 3% to 8%. That's just, I would say, large range on margins. I understand all the uncertainties, but want to understand how much those uncertainties are macro uncertainties versus competitive or consumer uncertainties, so just to understand the flexibility you need there. And then lastly, and don't take this the wrong way, but did you -- do you consider -- did you consider not giving guidance at all, particularly given constant transformation you're going through, the fact that's back half weighted again and what you've admitted to be a lot of uncertainties in the marketplace?

只是，大衛，跟進，你提到，隨著時間的推移，你想把重點放在 2019 年，並感受到你對指導的信心。首先，就頂線的加速而言，2% 到 3% 的有機銷售額，這在價格組合與銷量方面假設了什麼？它更像萬寶路星期五式、[星期四式]定價和優惠券，所以那裡的價格組合？是嗎——然後 2% 到 3% 的頂線變成了 3% 到 8% 的相當廣泛的每股收益。我想說的是，利潤率範圍很大。我理解所有的不確定性，但想了解這些不確定性在多大程度上是宏觀不確定性與競爭或消費者不確定性，所以只是為了了解你在那裡需要的靈活性。最後，不要誤會，但是你有沒有——你有沒有考慮過——你有沒有考慮過完全不提供指導，特別是考慮到你正在經歷的不斷轉變，事實上又回到了一半的權重你承認市場上有很多不確定性嗎？

So let me take that one and David can jump in. First of all, the relationship between volume and price and the top line guidance estimate, Ali, as I mentioned, we expect over -- the total fiscal year basis, [expect] the organic sales growth to be volume-driven, so volume will drive most of that. I also mentioned in prepared remarks that pricing will be a negative impact on the top line for the first half or so and then become positive in the second half. So the relationship between volume and price will evolve as the year progresses. Even the price increases that we have talked today don't become effective until close to the end of the calendar year -- actually one of them in October and I think the other in February. So we're going to continue to see, for the next couple quarters, some price degradation. But as pricing is implemented in the marking place -- marketplace, we should see that situation reverse itself. Relative to the bottom line guidance, I think you said it very well, and David talked about it on his remarks. We're operating in a very dynamic environment. We try to reflect that reality in terms of the width of the range. The combination of foreign exchange, currency, the real uncertainty associated with trade and the political environment and even the potential spillover into consumer purchase choices, just a very dynamic time. And I think there are opportunities within that, which is why the high end of the guidance range reflects meaningful progress. But there are also challenges within that. So we're just trying to be representative of the reality that we see as we sit here today. And generally, we feel we have a responsibility to give investors an indication of, in fact, what we see in front of us and what we're working towards. And as you know, we've moved away from 2 things relative to guidance over time. One is quarterly guidance, which we don't provide. So this is just a fiscal year slice. And we've also moved away from a lot of guidance on the internals in terms of individual margin components, for example, because with currency and commodities, those move all over the place. And we'll manage that, but we need -- don't need to distract you with that. So that's kind of how we're thinking about the guidance.

所以讓我來談談，大衛可以插手。首先，量價之間的關係和頂線指導估計，阿里，正如我提到的，我們預計超過 - 總財政年度基礎，[預計]有機銷售增長將由銷量驅動，因此銷量將推動其中的大部分。我還在準備好的評論中提到，定價將在上半年左右對頂線產生負面影響，然後在下半年變得積極。因此，數量和價格之間的關係將隨著時間的推移而變化。甚至我們今天討論的價格上漲也要到日曆年年底才會生效——實際上是 10 月份的一次，我認為是 2 月份的另一個。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將繼續看到價格有所下降。但由於定價是在市場上實施的，我們應該會看到這種情況發生逆轉。相對於底線指導，我覺得你說的很好，大衛在他的發言中也談到了。我們在一個非常動態的環境中運營。我們試圖根據范圍的寬度來反映這一現實。外匯、貨幣、與貿易和政治環境相關的真正不確定性，甚至可能波及消費者購買選擇，這都是一個充滿活力的時期。我認為其中有機會，這就是為什麼指導範圍的高端反映了有意義的進展。但其中也存在挑戰。所以我們只是想代表我們今天坐在這裡看到的現實。總的來說，我們覺得我們有責任向投資者表明，事實上，我們在我們面前看到了什麼以及我們正在努力實現什麼。如您所知，隨著時間的推移，我們已經放棄了與指導相關的兩件事。一個是季度指導，我們不提供。所以這只是一個財政年度部分。而且我們也放棄了很多關於個別保證金組成部分的內部指導，例如，因為對於貨幣和商品，它們到處都是。我們會解決這個問題，但我們需要——不需要讓你分心。這就是我們考慮指南的方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林銀行的 Olivia Tong。

Just wanted to focus again on price. I mean, the environment, whether it's macro, retail, hedging had been pretty considerable since the last time you guys need to push through price. So it would be great if you could talk about the different ways you can try and realize price this time around beyond just the diapers and tissue towels that you mentioned. Are there other categories you're looking at? Have the levers changed? Do you think about not only straight list, but also reducing ounces in the tube or bottle or package count, which I assume is what you're doing in diapers and tissue towel? And are there other areas, whether it'd be concessions, portfolio truckloads, the focus on premium? And just, I'm trying to understand the potential leverage you may have to push through top line improvement and how that compares in developed versus emerging markets and how much volume you'd be willing to sacrifice in order to get price.

只是想再次關注價格。我的意思是，自上次你們需要推高價格以來，環境，無論是宏觀、零售還是對沖，都相當可觀。所以，如果你能談談這次除了你提到的尿布和紙巾之外，你可以嘗試和實現價格的不同方式，那就太好了。您是否正在查看其他類別？槓桿改變了嗎？您是否不僅考慮直接清單，還考慮減少管裝或瓶子或包裝中的盎司數，我想這就是您在尿布和紙巾中所做的？還有其他領域嗎，無論是特許權、投資組合卡車還是對保費的關注？而且，我正在嘗試了解您可能需要通過頂線改進來推動的潛在槓桿作用，以及發達市場與新興市場的比較方式，以及您願意犧牲多少數量來獲得價格。

Sure. Let me make just a few comments on that because we absolutely have many tools to address price. Certainly, there's great list prices and we've got some that we just announced. The majority of times we do pricing, it's coupled with innovation. So the consumer value can actually improve. With a higher price, you can recover cost to commodities. We've done that for years in many of our businesses and done it successfully. Again, the timing may not line up perfectly, but the input cost increased. We've done a lot of resizing where we think that works well and helps keep a critical price point. We've done a number with new pack sizes. We certainly can use innovations with new forms to create new price points and price expectations. There's also the tool of promotional spending. And again, that varies widely by country where it can often be a de-escalation of promotional spending as a way to get average price up. And again, depending on the market dynamics, can be a smart choice. One of the reasons we're trying to put more decision space into markets where appropriate is it can be a little more agile. And if you take U.S. and China as the 2 probably best illustrations is what we want is each category to understand exactly what's required to grow both their sales, their top line and their bottom line over time. And they'll have the appropriate strategy then to address what tool in the pricing toolbox to address that over time. And again, I think that China is probably the most successful. The last 2 years, we have seen sales growth share trends moving very much in the right direction. And at the same time, as Jon mentioned, the structural financials have improved. And it's largely been superiority driven, supported by a lot of cost savings that allow us to invest in the demand creation as well as a lot of productivity to make sure the money we spent is very efficiently spent.

當然。讓我就此發表一些評論，因為我們絕對有很多工具可以解決價格問題。當然，標價很高，我們剛剛宣布了一些價格。大多數時候我們進行定價，它與創新相結合。所以消費者價值實際上可以提高。以更高的價格，您可以收回商品的成本。多年來，我們在許多業務中都做到了這一點，並且取得了成功。同樣，時機可能並不完美，但投入成本增加了。我們已經在我們認為效果很好並有助於保持關鍵價格點的地方進行了大量調整。我們已經完成了一些新的包裝尺寸。我們當然可以使用新形式的創新來創造新的價格點和價格預期。還有促銷支出的工具。同樣，這因國家/地區而異，通常可以通過降低促銷支出來提高平均價格。同樣，根據市場動態，這可能是一個明智的選擇。我們試圖在適當的時候將更多的決策空間放入市場的原因之一是它可以更靈活一點。如果你把美國和中國作為兩個可能最好的例證，我們想要的是每個類別都準確地了解隨著時間的推移增長他們的銷售額、他們的收入和他們的底線需要什麼。然後他們將有適當的策略來解決定價工具箱中的什麼工具來隨著時間的推移解決這個問題。而且，我認為中國可能是最成功的。在過去的 2 年裡，我們看到銷售增長份額趨勢朝著正確的方向發展。與此同時，正如喬恩所說，結構性財務狀況有所改善。這在很大程度上是由優勢驅動的，得到大量成本節約的支持，使我們能夠投資於需求創造以及大量生產力，以確保我們花的錢非常有效地花掉。

And I would just add one tool to the arsenal, which we'll be familiar to, and that's just being, as David referred to this, as productive as we can across the cost structure, so that we have the flexibility to adjust when competitive realities dictate that we do that.

我只想在武器庫中添加一個我們熟悉的工具，就像大衛所說的那樣，在整個成本結構中盡可能提高效率，這樣我們就可以在競爭時靈活地進行調整現實要求我們這樣做。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Stephen Powers。

So David, last quarter, you described things as not business as usual at P&G, underscoring the need to deliver more balanced top and bottom line progress and really issuing, at least, what I heard is an incremental call to action. But this quarter, on what seemed like pretty similar results, to me at least, you seem a lot more upbeat. So I guess, my question is, what's driven that change in tone? And I definitely see that the market share trends, that retail has improved, but it's obviously still coming at a cost. So just a little bit more expansion on why you believe future results will be more balanced. And I agree, the volume and the market share trends are impressive. But to Lauren's initial question, as you pull back on the promotions and the couponing over the course of fiscal '19, what gives you confidence that the volume and share momentum can be sustained? And if I could tack on -- of a related point maybe just with regards to your SG&A efficiency this quarter. If you annualized the lower SG&A versus consensus expectations, it's like $1 billion positive gap on a full year, and that's an amazing run rate if it's sustainable. But I guess, the risk that I'm grappling with is, in pulling back so dramatically, is there a risk that you're jeopardizing long-term business health by cutting back on important investment? I know you said you're not, but the gap is just so sizable. I feel compelled to ask the question.

所以大衛，上個季度，你描述了寶潔公司的情況與往常不同，強調需要實現更平衡的頂線和底線進展，並真正發出，至少，我聽到的是漸進的行動呼籲。但是這個季度，至少對我來說，結果看起來非常相似，你似乎更加樂觀。所以我想，我的問題是，是什麼推動了語氣的變化？而且我肯定看到市場份額趨勢，零售業有所改善，但顯然仍然要付出代價。因此，請稍微擴展一下為什麼您認為未來的結果會更加平衡。我同意，數量和市場份額趨勢令人印象深刻。但對於 Lauren 最初的問題，當您在 19 財年期間取消促銷和優惠券時，是什麼讓您有信心保持銷量和份額勢頭？如果我可以繼續 - 一個相關的問題可能只是關於你本季度的 SG&A 效率。如果你將較低的 SG&A 與普遍預期進行年度化，那麼一整年就有 10 億美元的正缺口，如果它是可持續的，那將是一個驚人的運行率。但我想，我正在努力應對的風險是，如此大幅度地撤退，是否存在通過削減重要投資而危及長期業務健康的風險？我知道你說過你不是，但差距是如此之大。我覺得有必要問這個問題。

Steve, let me take the first part of the question and then ask Jon to cover some of the specifics on the SG&A efficiency and utilization question that you have. Again, my comments, and certainly that the optimistic view going forward, it is underpinned heavily by the share growth and the fact that many of the things we've been working on over time to get the propositions -- the total proposition, we talked of 5 elements, those don't happen immediately and they don't happen on every brand in every country. It's more falling in place. We're seeing things, to me, that are very positive. The global value share trends over the last years are getting better and better and just recently turned positive. It's the first time this year last year where the total company in June was positive driven by strong North America growth. Go back 2 years ago, we said we had to fix U.S. and China. We had to address a number of key categories. Each of those sequentially is getting better. U.S. share meaningfully better from losing 0.3 to losing 0.1 to flat, past 3 months plus 0.3, past month plus 0.6 and it's driven by the right things. It's driven by products and packages and better and more efficient communication that, I think, it sustainable. And what is happening now and the phasing does affect certainly quarters is recovering a lot of the input cost and T&W cost, transportation, warehousing cost has taken time. And yes, the competitive environment is very difficult, which is why we've said this is not -- we're not in business as usual. We know we have to take more cost out, and that's why we're doubling down and looking to accelerate many of the cost savings that we've planned over several years into tighter time frames. That's being worked. We don't disclose everything. But clearly, accelerating productivity that puts smart investments in the right area of the superiority and recovering costs when it makes sense with the right tool and pricing does give me confidence. The fact that the consumers are voting for us more and more often, volume growth is strong, we're seeing that many of the brands, household penetration start to move and then you see China, India, we didn't talk a lot about double-digit, and the outlook is very strong. And if you're starting to get the U.S. growing, you get China growing. India, Europe, has had solid growth. You start to feel you've got more and more of the key countries that drive profit and share and volume positive. And for that reason, I think we can double down, but we need to do it faster. We need an organization that owns outcomes in each market, and that's what we're building.

史蒂夫，讓我回答問題的第一部分，然後請喬恩介紹您所遇到的 SG&A 效率和利用率問題的一些細節。再次，我的評論，當然是樂觀的觀點，它在很大程度上得到了份額增長的支持，以及我們一直在努力的許多事情，以獲得提議——我們談到了總的提議5 個元素，這些不會立即發生，也不會發生在每個國家/地區的每個品牌上。更多的是原地踏步。對我來說，我們看到的事情非常積極。過去幾年的全球價值份額趨勢越來越好，最近才轉為正值。這是去年 6 月份公司整體在北美強勁增長的推動下首次出現積極增長。回到 2 年前，我們說我們必須修復美國和中國。我們必須解決一些關鍵類別。每一個順序都在變得更好。美國股票從下跌 0.3 到下跌 0.1 到持平，過去 3 個月增加 0.3，過去一個月增加 0.6，這是由正確的事情驅動的。它由產品和包裝以及更好、更有效的溝通驅動，我認為這是可持續的。現在正在發生的事情和分階段確實影響了很多季度，正在收回大量的投入成本和 T&W 成本、運輸、倉儲成本需要時間。是的，競爭環境非常艱難，這就是為什麼我們說這不是——我們沒有照常營業。我們知道我們必須減少更多的成本，這就是為什麼我們加倍努力並希望將我們計劃在幾年內節省的許多成本加速到更緊迫的時間框架內。正在努力。我們不會透露一切。但顯然，提高生產力，將明智的投資放在優勢的正確領域，並在使用正確的工具和定價有意義時收回成本，這確實給了我信心。事實上，消費者越來越頻繁地投票給我們，銷量增長強勁，我們看到許多品牌、家庭滲透率開始上升，然後你看到中國、印度，我們沒有談論太多兩位數，前景非常強勁。如果你開始讓美國成長，你就會讓中國成長。印度、歐洲都有穩健的增長。你開始覺得你有越來越多的主要國家推動利潤和份額和數量積極。出於這個原因，我認為我們可以加倍努力，但我們需要做得更快。我們需要一個在每個市場都擁有成果的組織，這就是我們正在建設的。

And relative to SG&A, going back to the importance of balanced top and bottom line growth, which we feel very strongly about, it wouldn't make sense to dial back on support for brand creation and the spending behind that, and we haven't done that. So media, for example, was up 4% in the quarter. Even as we face a very difficult year, with lots of cost increases in the balance of the business, you wouldn't see the volume and consumption trends that you're seeing if we weren't continuing to support the business at relatively high levels. So the commitment to grow that top line and through the productivity efforts that David mentioned and the innovation efforts, which build margin continue to build the bottom line, it remains fully present.

相對於 SG&A，回到平衡的頂線和底線增長的重要性，我們對此有強烈的感受，減少對品牌創造的支持和背後的支出是沒有意義的，我們還沒有做到了。例如，媒體在本季度上漲了 4%。即使我們面臨非常困難的一年，業務平衡成本增加很多，如果我們不繼續以相對較高的水平支持業務，您也不會看到您所看到的數量和消費趨勢.因此，通過 David 提到的生產力努力和創新努力，提高利潤率的承諾繼續建立底線，它仍然完全存在。

And your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

I just had a quick follow-on question regarding the pricing. Just hoping to hear more from you on what the retailers' response has been to the price increases that you've announced and how have these increases possibly changed your different price gaps. And then a question on innovation. If you look back at your fiscal '18, how would you characterize your pace of innovation and how successful it was, especially in the context of the organic sales growth? Did it meet your expectations? And then as you look forward into fiscal '19, could you touch on your innovation pipeline and how different it may be from last year? Will there be more and/or will the innovation be more breakthrough type of innovation?

我只是有一個關於定價的快速後續問題。只是希望從您那裡聽到更多關於零售商對您宣布的價格上漲的反應，以及這些上漲可能如何改變您的不同價格差距。然後是關於創新的問題。如果回顧您的 18 財年，您會如何描述您的創新步伐及其成功程度，尤其是在有機銷售增長的背景下？達到你的預期了嗎？然後，當您展望 19 財年時，您能否談談您的創新渠道以及它與去年有何不同？會有更多和/或創新會是更具突破性的創新嗎？

Okay. There's many questions in there. The first one is difficult to answer in that the -- we don't talk specific retailer reactions other than if you step back and look at the industry, we're all pressed to recover costs. Transportation and warehousing costs are experienced not only by manufacturers, but by retailers. And so I believe, broadly, as long as it is cost justified and/or innovation provides meaningfully new benefits, I believe retailers will work with us. And I think, generally, the industry has to recover a rising input cost. All participants are experiencing this all over the world. So that's all I really can say. I won't talk about individual retailers and the one we've just announced today -- we're just announcing today, so I don't have any data there. And generally, if I look around the world, not just the U.S., generally, I believe when you have innovation and/or there's an environment that it's justified, we've been able to get pricing, and so that's all I'll comment on that. In terms of the pace of innovation, it has increased in terms of the impact. And that's what we really want is, is this magnitude of superiority. And if I take just the one example that we talked many times, but it matters is things like the scent beads. Growing that faster, moving it from a $250 million business to a $500 million business adds real profitable sales to the company. And we are driving those faster and harder and driving things like household penetration, which is more users. Those are the most profitable additional cases you can get because you've already got a sizable business, and you're leveraging the assets that you've employed. We want more innovations and what we're working on is more meaningful innovations. We've learned a lot, if we go back several years ago, with overproliferating very minor extensions. What we want is meaningful consumer-significant innovations and where smart differentiated solutions that help our retailers, and we'll work with them as well. And that's an area I expect we'll do more going forward because the combination of those 2 addresses the consumer and customer value, and that's a key part of our superiority strategy. Pipeline, I believe, is very strong. And the fact that we put additional effort into our upstream innovation several years ago, those will come out over time. And both Jon and I have mentioned that we have many tests going on to continue to make sure that we learn fast and then bring to the market consumer meaningful innovation that will grow category size, which helps both us and our retailers.

好的。裡面有很多問題。第一個很難回答——我們不會談論具體的零售商反應，除非你退後一步看看這個行業，我們都被迫收回成本。運輸和倉儲成本不僅由製造商承擔，而且由零售商承擔。所以我相信，從廣義上講，只要成本合理和/或創新提供有意義的新好處，我相信零售商會與我們合作。而且我認為，一般來說，該行業必須收回不斷上升的投入成本。世界各地的所有參與者都在經歷這一點。所以這就是我真正能說的。我不會談論個別零售商和我們今天剛剛宣布的零售商——我們今天剛剛宣布，所以我沒有任何數據。一般來說，如果我環顧世界，而不僅僅是美國，一般來說，我相信當你有創新和/或有一個合理的環境時，我們已經能夠定價，所以這就是我要評論的全部在那上面。就創新的步伐而言，它在影響方面有所增加。而這正是我們真正想要的，就是這種巨大的優勢。如果我只舉一個我們談過很多次的例子，但重要的是香珠之類的東西。增長得更快，將其從 2.5 億美元的業務轉移到 5 億美元的業務，為公司增加了真正有利可圖的銷售額。我們正在更快、更努力地推動這些，並推動諸如家庭普及率之類的事情，即更多的用戶。這些是您可以獲得的最有利可圖的額外案例，因為您已經擁有規模可觀的業務，並且您正在利用您所使用的資產。我們想要更多的創新，而我們正在做的是更有意義的創新。我們學到了很多東西，如果我們回到幾年前，過度增殖非常小的擴展。我們想要的是對消費者有意義的創新，以及可以幫助我們的零售商的智能差異化解決方案，我們也將與他們合作。這是我希望我們未來會做更多事情的領域，因為這兩者的結合解決了消費者和客戶的價值，這是我們優勢戰略的關鍵部分。我相信，管道非常強大。事實上，我們幾年前就在上游創新上投入了額外的努力，這些都會隨著時間的推移而出現。喬恩和我都提到我們正在進行許多測試，以繼續確保我們快速學習，然後為市場帶來對消費者有意義的創新，這些創新將擴大品類規模，這對我們和我們的零售商都有幫助。

Next, we'll go to Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

接下來，我們將與 Raymond James 一起去拜訪 Joe Altobello。

I guess, just wanted to dig in a little more to your 2% to 3% organic sales growth outlook and from a different direction. What are you guys assuming in terms of the overall market growth rate for this year? And I assume, if it's still in that similar 2% to 3% range, with trade inventory reductions still a modest headwind likely, I'm trying to understand how much in the way of market share gains you're assuming or what does that imply in terms of your organic growth rate for this year?

我想，只是想從不同的方向深入了解你 2% 到 3% 的有機銷售增長前景。你們對今年的整體市場增長率有何假設？我假設，如果它仍然在 2% 到 3% 的相似範圍內，貿易庫存減少仍然可能是一個適度的逆風，我試圖了解你假設的市場份額增長方式有多少，或者那是什麼暗示您今年的有機增長率？

Okay. Just to comment on the 2% to 3% and I may need to get the last part of your question, I wasn't sure I got it. The 2% to 3% as far as market growth, it is in the -- still the 2% to 3%. And understand, we have to grow a little faster because consumption tends to be ahead of what we experienced because there have been inventories that have come down across the world as e-commerce grows, especially in the big major markets. And I'm not seeing anything dramatically different. We'll see what happens in places where there's pricing -- the benefit of pricing versus the impact on the consumer volume. But right now, to me, the market is pretty steady.

好的。只是評論 2% 到 3%，我可能需要得到你問題的最後一部分，我不確定我是否得到它。就市場增長而言，2% 到 3%，仍然是 2% 到 3%。並且要明白，我們必須增長得更快一些，因為消費往往超過我們所經歷的，因為隨著電子商務的發展，世界各地的庫存都在下降，尤其是在大型主要市場。而且我沒有看到任何顯著不同。我們將看看在有定價的地方會發生什麼——定價的好處與對消費者數量的影響。但現在，對我來說，市場相當穩定。

So we should -- with the dynamics that David mentioned, if we grow organic sales 2% to 3%, we should be building share against our current assumption of market growth because consumption will be slightly higher than that.

因此，我們應該——按照大衛提到的動態，如果我們將有機銷售額增長 2% 到 3%，我們應該根據我們目前對市場增長的假設來增加份額，因為消費將略高於此。

Next, we'll go to Jon Feeney with Consumer Edge.

接下來，我們將通過 Consumer Edge 訪問 Jon Feeney。

You cited -- a real quick one, you cited 120 basis points of mix factors within your gross margin buildup, and I would admit to other factors. I'm assuming when you wrote that, that's mostly mix. And could you -- I know you're not going to guide on that, but could you give us a sense what the single largest buckets are of negative gross margin mix and maybe if there's a big positive one in there that's offsetting and what you're thinking about for 2019 as far as gross margin mix as a contributor based on current trend?

你引用了——一個真正快速的，你在你的毛利率增長中引用了 120 個基點的混合因素，我承認還有其他因素。我假設當你寫的時候，那主要是混合的。你能不能——我知道你不會就此提供指導，但你能告訴我們最大的單一桶是負毛利率組合嗎？根據當前趨勢，考慮 2019 年的毛利率組合作為貢獻者嗎？

So I'll give you 2 examples on what are driving mix, one of which will hopefully reverse itself, the other will hopefully not, and I'll explain that. One example of negative mix is the decline year-on-year in sales on blades and razors, which is one of our most profitable businesses. So as that business grows at a lower rate or declines -- that grows at lower rate than the balance of the business, that generates a negative gross margin mix hurt that, I hope, resolves itself as we continue to strengthen results in that business. Another example that might be somewhat counterintuitive, and tongue-in-cheek, I hope it doesn't resolve itself, is the -- is when you grow a premium priced item, David mentioned beads, for example, at a rate that's faster than the balance of the business. Those items, and both Tide PODS, unit dose and fabric enhancer beads are examples of this, have a higher price. They have a higher -- significantly higher $0.01 profit, typically dollars higher than comparable items. But the combination of those yields mathematically a lower margin, meaning that when you sell more of those products, your gross margin declines, but it's a very good day. And we want to sell as many of those items as we can. So Jon can help you offline kind of tease out those components, but those are 2 of the largest drivers in the quarter that we just completed, for example.

所以我會給你兩個例子來說明什麼是驅動混合，其中一個有望自行逆轉，另一個有望不會，我將對此進行解釋。負面組合的一個例子是刀片和剃須刀的銷售額同比下降，這是我們最賺錢的業務之一。因此，隨著該業務以較低的速度增長或下降 - 其增長速度低於業務的平衡，這會產生負毛利率組合，我希望隨著我們繼續加強該業務的結果而自行解決。另一個可能有點違反直覺和開玩笑的例子，我希望它不會自行解決，是 - 當你種植高價商品時，David 提到了珠子，例如，以比業務的平衡。這些物品，包括 Tide PODS、單位劑量和織物增強劑珠都是這樣的例子，價格更高。他們的利潤更高——明顯高於 0.01 美元，通常比同類產品高出幾美元。但這些組合在數學上產生了較低的利潤率，這意味著當你銷售更多這些產品時，你的毛利率會下降，但這是一個非常好的日子。我們希望盡可能多地銷售這些商品。因此，Jon 可以幫助您離線梳理這些組件，但例如，這些是我們剛剛完成的季度中最大的兩個驅動因素。

And next, we'll go to Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

接下來，我們將與 Stifel 一起去 Mark Astrachan。

Wanted to ask about where retailers are increasing the focus on private label, less so as it kind of relates to your ability to price and more to do with how [brand-new] companies compete when retailers seem to want to put more private label on shelves, and an example of this would be your reductions in shaving and razor prices a year ago with a large wholesale club coming out with its own private label, about a year after these reductions. And just sort of related to that, where do you believe your current shelf space is a year from now or so relative to current levels?

想問問零售商在哪些方面增加了對自有品牌的關注，而不是因為它與您的定價能力有關，而更多地與 [全新] 公司在零售商似乎想要更多自有品牌時如何競爭有關貨架，這方面的一個例子是一年前你的剃須刀和剃須刀降價，一家大型批發俱樂部推出了自己的自有品牌，大約在降價一年後。與此相關的是，您認為相對於當前水平，您當前的貨架空間在一年後左右處於什麼位置？

Just a couple of comments on that. First, we've experienced retailers putting varying levels of focus on the retailer brand, private label. We understand, for most retailers, it's an important part of their strategy, both from an equity standpoint and a margin revenue standpoint. We've also shown, over time, and probably Europe is the best illustration, because it's most advanced there, the ability to win in an environment where the leading brand and the retailer brand can mutually be successful. And what's -- and it comes back to the same point. What you have to have is the brand consumers prefer because then retailers want to carry it because it builds the basket. And yes, they will continue to put emphasis and, at times, add shelf space. And if we're doing our job and have the innovation, it comes at the expense of somebody else. It's one of the reasons you have to watch being in the middle without a distinctive positioning in a brand that's meaningfully different to consumers. It is the reason why we believe that consumers -- that, I think, retailers will continue to put more emphasis in many of the cases on the retailer brands, and we can accelerate our growth, but means the advantage has to be enough that the consumer that's interested in the retailer brand is not the consumer that typically buys our brands. And when we really do our job, we're able to source from a variety of sources. But frankly, usually, it's the brands and the weaker businesses in the middle. So that part, I think, is still true. I don't believe that you'll see a spike when a retailer makes a new push in either a category or, broadly, into retailer brands. But again, we've seen this over time. Europe is the best illustration, but the same is true in the U.S. where there may be a spike and then it steadies out with what the consumer wants. And they will follow the shopper just as we do. And our job is to make sure more shoppers pick our brands. I believe we can earn shelf space over time with innovation, and that's certainly been our experience. You better be enough different. And again, it's especially, to me, successful when you bring meaningful difference or a new form to the consumer or a new benefit area. It's one of the reasons PODS and beads have been able to grow both share, sales, profit and space, in most cases, because the retailer wants to feature, for the reason Jon mentioned, for us and for them because the $0.01 profit is higher for them and to [me] the absolute sales and total profit for us. And the consumer gets a product that's meaningfully better. And that's a good example of superiority in place, and shelf space can be earned. And frankly, the expectation I'd have for each of our businesses is they need to have propositions that are able to earn shelf space from the retail partners because it's in their best interest.

就此發表幾點評論。首先，我們經歷過零售商對零售商品牌、自有品牌的不同程度的關注。我們知道，對於大多數零售商而言，無論是從股權角度還是從利潤率角度來看，這都是他們戰略的重要組成部分。隨著時間的推移，我們還展示了歐洲可能是最好的例證，因為它在那裡最先進，能夠在領先品牌和零售商品牌可以相互成功的環境中取勝。什麼是 - 它又回到了同一點。你必須擁有的是消費者喜歡的品牌，因為零售商想要攜帶它，因為它構成了購物籃。是的，他們將繼續強調，有時還會增加貨架空間。如果我們正在做我們的工作並擁有創新，那麼它就會以犧牲其他人為代價。這是你必須注意在一個對消費者有意義的不同品牌中沒有獨特定位的情況下處於中間位置的原因之一。這就是為什麼我們相信消費者——我認為，在許多情況下，零售商將繼續更加重視零售商品牌，我們可以加速增長，但這意味著優勢必須足以讓對零售商品牌感興趣的消費者不是通常購買我們品牌的消費者。當我們真正做好我們的工作時，我們能夠從各種來源獲取資源。但坦率地說，通常是中間的品牌和較弱的企業。所以我認為那部分仍然是正確的。我不相信當零售商在某個類別或更廣泛地向零售商品牌進行新的推廣時，你會看到峰值。但是，隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了這一點。歐洲是最好的例證，但美國也是如此，那裡可能會出現一個峰值，然後隨著消費者的需求穩定下來。他們會像我們一樣跟隨購物者。我們的工作是確保更多的購物者選擇我們的品牌。我相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以通過創新贏得貨架空間，這當然是我們的經驗。你最好足夠與眾不同。再一次，對我來說，當你為消費者或新的利益領域帶來有意義的差異或新形式時，它尤其成功。這是 PODS 和 beads 能夠同時增長份額、銷售額、利潤和空間的原因之一，在大多數情況下，因為零售商希望以 Jon 提到的原因為我們和他們提供特色，因為 0.01 美元的利潤更高對於他們和 [我] 我們的絕對銷售額和總利潤。消費者得到的產品更有意義。這是一個很好的優勢的例子，可以贏得貨架空間。坦率地說，我對我們每個企業的期望是，他們需要提出能夠從零售合作夥伴那裡贏得貨架空間的主張，因為這符合他們的最大利益。

The next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So following up on pricing, are you going to continue to increase the gap between your own price points? I mean, you just positioned Luvs diapers cheaper before and now with the announced price increase in Pampers. Should we expect the price realization gaps in between those 2 brands to continue to widen? And the same for Bounty and Charmin brands, I guess, these brands are [own] basic and essential value extensions, basically going back to the point about private label, as you mentioned in the last few quarters? And in the long run, should we continue to see P&G use high-low strategies where the premium products funding price reductions in the key categories that's happened in Grooming and now in diapers?

那麼跟進定價，你們是不是要繼續拉大自己價位的差距？我的意思是，隨著幫寶適宣布漲價，您之前和現在都只是將 Luvs 尿布定位為更便宜。我們是否應該期望這兩個品牌之間的價格實現差距繼續擴大？ Bounty 和 Charmin 品牌也是如此，我想，這些品牌是 [自己的] 基本和必要的價值延伸，基本上回到了關於自有品牌的觀點，正如你在過去幾個季度提到的那樣？從長遠來看，我們是否應該繼續看到寶潔使用高低策略，即高端產品為關鍵類別的降價提供資金，就像在美容和現在的尿布中發生的那樣？

Okay. Just a couple of comments on the pricing. Bounty and Charmin will -- are pricing to recover the cost increases we and rest of the industry participants are experiencing. We have, for each of our brands and for each of our tiers, desired pricing corridors that we know that consumers believe provides good value. Over time, we'll take the actions that make sure we address that. I believe, in many of the categories where we're taking pricing on our premium brands, there is pressure for all participants to understand what they think is right to deal with the rising input costs. We'll have to respond to whatever each of the competitors choose, and we'll do so. And again, we've learned very clearly what is the pricing corridor where we can grow share over time. We also know that we increased the margin of superiority. We often can grow that price premium. And that, again, is one of the reasons why we're doubling down on the superiority. I believe, and again we've gone through times where input costs went up significantly, where we've priced and we're able to build our business. And if something happens with another retailer that causes an issue or rather another competitor, we'll have to be agile on this market, and we'll do so.

好的。只是一些關於定價的評論。 Bounty 和 Charmin 將 - 正在定價以收回我們和其他行業參與者正在經歷的成本增加。對於我們的每個品牌和我們的每個層級，我們都有我們知道消費者認為提供良好價值的理想定價走廊。隨著時間的推移，我們會採取行動確保我們會解決這個問題。我相信，在我們為高端品牌定價的許多類別中，所有參與者都面臨著壓力，要求他們了解他們認為應對不斷上升的投入成本的正確做法。我們必須對每個競爭對手的選擇做出回應，我們會這樣做的。再一次，我們已經非常清楚地了解到我們可以隨著時間的推移增加份額的定價渠道是什麼。我們也知道我們增加了優勢幅度。我們經常可以增加價格溢價。這也是我們加倍強調優勢的原因之一。我相信，我們又一次經歷了投入成本大幅上升的時期，我們已經定價並且能夠建立我們的業務。如果另一家零售商或另一家競爭對手發生問題，我們必須在這個市場上保持敏捷，我們會這樣做。

And next, we'll go to the line of Jon Andersen with William Blair.

接下來，我們將談談喬恩·安徒生和威廉·布萊爾的台詞。

I want to ask about e-commerce. Sorry if I missed it, but what percent of the total company sales were e-commerce related in fiscal '18? How would you characterize your major brand market shares online versus offline at present? And also if you could talk briefly about margins offline, online, where you stand today and what some of the opportunities are ahead to improve that.

我想問一下電子商務。對不起，如果我錯過了，但是在 18 財年公司總銷售額中有多少百分比與電子商務相關？您如何描述您目前在線上與線下的主要品牌市場份額？另外，如果你能簡要談談線下、線上的利潤率，你今天所處的位置，以及未來有哪些改進機會。

Sure. First, we're very pleased with the progress we've made in our total e-commerce business led primarily by the 2 biggest, U.S. and China, but also Europe as well. And in other markets, Korea, very strong. We're winning online with 30% growth this year. We're up to 4.5%, [$1] billion. And in total, to answer specifically your question, it's about 7% of our global sales. And the other point I'd make, generally, it varies widely by country and by category. But our market shares and our margins online are roughly equal to offline. And for that reason, we -- and we want to keep it that way as best we can because we've been channel-agnostic. We can go wherever the shopper wants to go and have our brands available. And then we work the cost structure and, certainly, our productivity programs to ensure we can do that. But again, that varies widely by category and country because we have to deal with whatever the competitor set is -- in that category and country. But broadly, 7% global sales and markets. Shares and margins, roughly equal.

當然。首先，我們對我們在主要由美國和中國這兩個最大的電子商務企業以及歐洲領導的電子商務業務取得的進展感到非常高興。而在其他市場，韓國非常強大。今年我們在線上取得了 30% 的增長。我們高達 4.5%，[1] 億美元。總的來說，具體回答你的問題，它大約占我們全球銷售額的 7%。我要說的另一點，一般來說，它因國家和類別而異。但我們在線上的市場份額和利潤率與線下大致相當。出於這個原因，我們 - 我們希望盡可能保持這種方式，因為我們一直與渠道無關。我們可以去購物者想去的任何地方，並提供我們的品牌。然後我們研究成本結構，當然還有我們的生產力計劃，以確保我們能夠做到這一點。但同樣，這因類別和國家/地區而異，因為我們必須處理競爭對手的設置——在該類別和國家/地區。但從廣義上講，7% 的全球銷售額和市場。股票和利潤，大致相等。

And next, we'll go to Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將與 Jefferies 一起去見 Kevin Grundy。

First, a housekeeping question, if I can. Jon, so the tax rate guidance for fiscal '19 at 19% to 20%, is that permanently lower? If so, what's driving it? Is that also reflective of the cash tax rate? And then David, the broader question on the Beauty and natural space, and you touched on the 3 tuck-in deals that you've transacted on so far this year, small but add to brands like Olay and SK-II, can you compare and contrast the approach here maybe versus past mistakes that Procter has made in the Beauty space, maybe how you'll integrate these differently, maybe let them sort of operate on a stand-alone basis, views on managing the number of brands in the portfolio? The company, obviously, went through a period of rationalizing the portfolio and reducing a number of brands. Maybe talk about that now as you sort of enter back into more active M&A. And maybe touch on the pipeline a bit and broadly what we can expect going forward.

首先，如果可以的話，一個內務管理問題。喬恩，19 財年的稅率指導為 19% 至 20%，是否會永久降低？如果是這樣，是什麼在驅動它？這是否也反映了現金稅率？然後大衛，關於美麗和自然空間的更廣泛的問題，你談到了今年到目前為止你已經交易的 3 筆折價交易，雖然規模不大，但加入了玉蘭油和 SK-II 等品牌，你能比較一下嗎並將這裡的方法與寶潔過去在美容領域所犯的錯誤進行對比，也許你將如何以不同的方式整合這些，也許讓它們在某種程度上獨立運作，對管理投資組合中品牌數量的看法？顯然，該公司經歷了一段合理化產品組合併減少品牌數量的時期。也許現在談論這個，因為你有點回到更積極的併購。也許會稍微和廣泛地觸及我們對未來的期望。

Okay. First on the taxes, based on everything we know today, which will change tomorrow, we'd expect 19% to 20% to be going -- a good estimate of a going tax rate, probably closer to 20% than 19%, Kevin. The cash tax rates, if you consider the cash that we're paying on the repatriation tax, which has already been recognized as a onetime charge to earnings, inclusive of that would be a little bit higher, but not significantly.

好的。首先是稅收，根據我們今天所知道的一切，明天會發生變化，我們預計將有 19% 到 20% 的稅率——這是對現行稅率的一個很好的估計，可能更接近 20% 而不是 19%，凱文.現金稅率，如果你考慮我們為遣返稅支付的現金，它已經被確認為對收益的一次性費用，包括在內會略高一些，但不會顯著。

Just -- I guess, just some comments on naturals. First, we're quite committed to winning there. And while, yes, I will talk a minute about the acquisitions, to me the biggest part of the growth is coming from organic innovation from our existing brands. I mentioned almost every brand now has deeply understood that consumer. And what they've been working and the reason is taking time and some of the cases is we want to solve the trade-off between often the free of and full -- either free of or full of depending on how it's expressed in each market benefit as well as with the core functional benefit of the category. And the ones I mentioned, at least, whether it's Tide purclean or Gain, Febreze ONE, Whisper Pure Cotton and recently Pampers Pure Protection, all of these are showing very good growth in the market because they're addressing the consumer need. And yes, we will supplement when we see an opportunity that gives us either people capabilities or a key brand that we think we can turn from a small brand into a bigger brand and grow over time. How I'd contrast this with potentially the past is we're not looking to proliferate a ton of brands and we want a huge number of small brands. What we want to do is grow our big brands. And we believe it's very important that we plant seeds in high-growth areas, either organically or through acquisition, and make them bigger brands by bringing our capability via product package technology, communication and/or supply chain, which often is what enables you to turn these brands from small unprofitable brands to midsized to bigger profitable businesses. And that's exciting because almost every category, there is a meaningful consumer segment and is growing fast. And now we've got organic innovation coming into the market in supplements. And then the last thing, you asked what are we doing on the ones that we have purchased is, at this time, we are leaving them where they are right now and giving them time. We want to learn from them and then make available the capabilities that P&G has without imposing anything that would slow down the rate of growth or our rate of learning. And to me, I'm quite excited about what we're learning from Native and Snowberry, and what we will learn from First Aid Beauty and, frankly, what we'll learn from our health care acquisition because we have talent coming in and we have products and brands that we think are catalysts for accelerated growth.

只是 - 我想，只是對自然的一些評論。首先，我們非常致力於在那裡獲勝。雖然，是的，我會談一談收購，但對我來說，增長的最大部分來自我們現有品牌的有機創新。我提到現在幾乎每個品牌都深深地了解消費者。他們一直在努力，原因是需要時間，有些案例是我們想解決通常免費和完全之間的權衡——免費或完全取決於它在每個市場中的表達方式利益以及該類別的核心功能利益。至少我提到的那些，無論是 Tide purclean 還是 Gain、Febreze ONE、Whisper Pure Cotton 和最近的 Pampers Pure Protection，所有這些都顯示出非常好的市場增長，因為它們滿足了消費者的需求。是的，當我們看到一個機會給我們帶來人員能力或一個我們認為我們可以從一個小品牌變成一個更大品牌並隨著時間的推移成長的關鍵品牌時，我們將進行補充。我如何將這與可能的過去進行對比，我們不希望擴散大量品牌，我們想要大量的小品牌。我們要做的是發展我們的大品牌。我們相信，我們在高增長地區種植種子非常重要，無論是有機地還是通過收購，並通過產品包裝技術、通信和/或供應鏈帶來我們的能力，使它們成為更大的品牌，這通常使您能夠將這些品牌從無利可圖的小型品牌轉變為中型到更大的盈利企業。這很令人興奮，因為幾乎每個類別都有一個有意義的消費者群體並且正在快速增長。現在我們已經將有機創新產品以補充劑的形式進入市場。然後最後一件事，你問我們在我們購買的那些上做了什麼，此時，我們將他們留在他們現在所在的地方並給他們時間。我們想向他們學習，然後在不強加任何會減慢增長速度或我們學習速度的情況下，提供寶潔擁有的能力。對我來說，我對我們從 Native 和 Snowberry 中學到的東西，我們將從 First Aid Beauty 中學到的東西，坦率地說，我們將從我們的醫療保健收購中學到的東西感到非常興奮，因為我們有人才進來，我們擁有我們認為是加速增長催化劑的產品和品牌。

Your last question comes from the line of Steve Strycula with UBS.

你的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steve Strycula。

Two quick questions on the portfolio. First with Fabric Care, can you just speak, Jon, a little bit more about the acuteness of where we saw the price mix investments and what catalyzed the behavior? And should this be a trend that was contained to the fourth quarter? Should we expect it to linger on through fiscal '19? And then for the second part, I can appreciate that there's a number of different items happening in Grooming right now competitively. But all in, should we expect revenues for that business segment to be down in fiscal '19?

關於投資組合的兩個快速問題。首先是 Fabric Care，Jon，你能不能多談談我們看到價格組合投資的敏銳度以及是什麼催化了這種行為？這應該是第四季度的趨勢嗎？我們是否應該期望它會持續到 19 財年？然後對於第二部分，我可以理解現在 Grooming 中有許多不同的項目正在競爭中發生。但總而言之，我們是否應該期望該業務部門的收入在 19 財年下降？

So on laundry in the U.S., we made several investments to deliver price competitiveness and consistent with the comment David made earlier about maintaining pricing within proven quarters for growth, and you saw that generate some solid growth. What -- where we go from here will depend a lot on the competitive environment. We want to drive as much top line revenue as possible, but we know we need to be price competitive to do that sustainably.

因此，在美國的洗衣店，我們進行了幾項投資以提供價格競爭力，並與大衛早些時候發表的關於在已證實的季度內保持定價以實現增長的評論一致，你看到這產生了一些穩健的增長。什麼——我們從這裡走向何方將在很大程度上取決於競爭環境。我們希望盡可能多地增加收入，但我們知道我們需要具有價格競爭力才能可持續地做到這一點。

And the other, we don't give guidance by business. But no, I have not accepted and we have not accepted that any of our core categories are not going to grow in fiscal '19. We have to deal with what happens in each market. And for Grooming, our aspiration is to grow that business. And we're putting the innovation and plans in place to do just that.

另一方面，我們不提供業務指導。但不，我沒有接受，我們也沒有接受我們的任何核心類別在 19 財年都不會增長。我們必須處理每個市場發生的事情。對於美容，我們的願望是發展該業務。我們正在實施創新和計劃來做到這一點。

I think that wraps up the call, and thank you very much. We appreciate the questions. And again, I'll just close with we're quite committed to making the changes. And the strategy, to me, is showing the right signs in terms of positive share trends. And we're quite committed to delivering balanced top and bottom line growth. Thank you all.

我想電話就此結束，非常感謝。我們感謝您提出問題。再一次，我將結束我們非常致力於做出改變。對我來說，該戰略在積極的股票趨勢方面顯示出正確的跡象。我們非常致力於實現平衡的頂線和底線增長。謝謝你們。

That does conclude today's conference. We thank everyone, again, for their participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們再次感謝大家的參與。